Datasets:

rlacombe
/

ClimateX

statement_idx int64 0 8.09k	report stringclasses 3 values	page_num int64 18 2.84k	sent_num int64 0 78	statement stringlengths 13 4.29k	confidence stringclasses 4 values	score int64 0 3	split stringclasses 2 values
0	AR6_WGI	20	22	Since 2011 (measurements reported in AR5), concentrations have continued to increase in the atmosphere, reaching annual averages of 410 parts per million (ppm) for carbon dioxide (CO 2), 1866 parts per billion (ppb) for methane (CH 4), and 332 ppb for nitrous oxide (N 2O) in 2019.6 Land and ocean have taken up a near-constant proportion (globally about 56% per year) of CO 2 emissions from human activities over the past six decades, with regional differences	high	2	train
1	AR6_WGI	21	8	Mid-latitude storm tracks have likely shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends	medium	1	train
2	AR6_WGI	21	18	The average rate of sea level rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1] mm yr–1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to 1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr–1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing to 3.7 [3.2 to 4.2] mm yr–1 between 2006 and 2018	high	2	train
3	AR6_WGI	24	2	Since 1750, increases in CO2 (47%) and CH4 (156%) concentrations far exceed – and increases in N2O (23%) are similar to – the natural multi-millennial changes between glacial and interglacial periods over at least the past 800,000 years	very high	3	test
4	AR6_WGI	24	4	Temperatures during the most recent decade (2011–2020) exceed those of the most recent multi-century warm period, around 6500 years ago13 [0.2°C to 1°C relative to 1850–1900]	medium	1	train
5	AR6_WGI	24	5	Prior to that, the next most recent warm period was about 125,000 years ago, when the multi-century temperature [0.5°C to 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900] overlaps the observations of the most recent decade	medium	1	train
6	AR6_WGI	24	7	Late summer Arctic sea ice area was smaller than at any time in at least the past 1000 years	medium	1	train
7	AR6_WGI	24	8	The global nature of glacier retreat since the 1950s, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years	medium	1	train
8	AR6_WGI	24	10	The global ocean has warmed faster over the past century than since the end of the last deglacial transition (around 11,000 years ago)	medium	1	train
9	AR6_WGI	24	11	A long-term increase in surface open ocean pH occurred over the past 50 million years	high	2	train
10	AR6_WGI	24	12	However, surface open ocean pH as low as recent decades is unusual in the last 2 million years	medium	1	train
11	AR6_WGI	24	17	Marine heatwaves have approximately doubled in frequency since the 1980s	high	2	train
12	AR6_WGI	24	19	Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts15 in some regions due to increased land evapotranspiration16	medium	1	train
13	AR6_WGI	25	1	Over South Asia, East Asia and West Africa, increases in monsoon precipitation due to warming from GHG emissions were counteracted by decreases in monsoon precipitation due to cooling from human-caused aerosol emissions over the 20th century	high	2	train
14	AR6_WGI	25	2	Increases in West African monsoon precipitation since the 1980s are partly due to the growing influence of GHGs and reductions in the cooling effect of human-caused aerosol emissions over Europe and North America	medium	1	train
15	AR6_WGI	25	5	Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-induced climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones	high	2	train
16	AR6_WGI	25	7	This includes increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale (high confidence), fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents (medium confidence), and compound flooding in some locations	medium	1	train
17	AR6_WGI	27	21	The remainder is due to improved scientific understanding and changes in the assessment of aerosol forcing, which include decreases in concentration and improvement in its calculation	high	2	train
18	AR6_WGI	27	23	The observed average rate of heating of the climate system increased from 0.50 [0.32 to 0.69] W m–2 for the period 1971–200619 to 0.79 [0.52 to 1.06] W m–2 for the period 2006–201820	high	2	train
19	AR6_WGI	27	24	Ocean warming accounted for 91% of the heating in the climate system, with land warming, ice loss and atmospheric warming accounting for about 5%, 3% and 1%, respectively	high	2	train
20	AR6_WGI	27	28	Together, ice-sheet and glacier mass loss were the dominant contributors to global mean sea level rise during 2006–2018	high	2	train
21	AR6_WGI	27	30	Based on multiple lines of evidence,21 the very likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is between 2°C (high confidence) and 5°C	medium	1	train
22	AR6_WGI	27	31	The AR6 assessed best estimate is 3°C with a likely range of 2.5°C to 4°C	high	2	train
23	AR6_WGI	31	7	For example, every additional 0.5°C of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heatwaves (very likely), and heavy precipitation (high confidence), as well as agricultural and ecological droughts30 in some regions	high	2	train
24	AR6_WGI	31	8	Discernible changes in intensity and frequency of meteorological droughts, with more regions showing increases than decreases, are seen in some regions for every additional 0.5°C of global warming	medium	1	train
25	AR6_WGI	31	9	Increases in frequency and intensity of hydrological droughts become larger with increasing global warming in some regions	medium	1	train
26	AR6_WGI	31	11	Projected percentage changes in frequency are larger for rarer events	high	2	train
27	AR6_WGI	31	13	The Arctic is projected to experience the highest increase in the temperature of the coldest days, at about three times the rate of global warming	high	2	train
28	AR6_WGI	31	14	With additional global warming, the frequency of marine heatwaves will continue to increase (high confidence), particularly in the tropical ocean and the Arctic	medium	1	train
29	AR6_WGI	32	1	At the global scale, extreme daily precipitation events are projected to intensify by about 7% for each 1°C of global warming	high	2	train
30	AR6_WGI	32	2	The proportion of intense tropical cyclones (Category 4–5) and peak wind speeds of the most intense tropical cyclones are projected to increase at the global scale with increasing global warming	high	2	train
31	AR6_WGI	35	20	The portion of the global land experiencing detectable increases or decreases in seasonal mean precipitation is projected to increase	medium	1	train
32	AR6_WGI	35	25	The monsoon season is projected to have a delayed onset over North and South America and West Africa (high confidence) and a delayed retreat over West Africa	medium	1	train
33	AR6_WGI	36	1	This is projected to result in a higher proportion of emitted CO 2 remaining in the atmosphere	high	2	train
34	AR6_WGI	36	3	Under the very low and low GHG emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6), where CO 2 concentrations peak and decline during the 21st century, the land and ocean begin to take up less carbon in response to declining atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (high confidence) and turn into a weak net source by 2100 under SSP1-1.9	medium	1	train
35	AR6_WGI	36	4	It is very unlikely that the combined global land and ocean sink will turn into a source by 2100 under scenarios without net negative emissions (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5).32 {4.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.6, Box TS.5, TS.3.3} B.4.3 The magnitude of feedbacks between climate change and the carbon cycle becomes larger but also more uncertain in high CO 2 emissions scenarios	very high	3	train
36	AR6_WGI	36	5	However, climate model projections show that the uncertainties in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 2100 are dominated by the differences between emissions scenarios	high	2	train
37	AR6_WGI	36	6	Additional ecosystem responses to warming not yet fully included in climate models, such as CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from wetlands, permafrost thaw and wildfires, would further increase concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere	high	2	train
38	AR6_WGI	37	7	Based on multiple lines of evidence, upper ocean stratification (virtually certain), ocean acidification (virtually certain) and ocean deoxygenation	high	2	train
39	AR6_WGI	37	8	Changes are irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales in global ocean temperature (very high confidence), deep-ocean acidification (very high confidence) and deoxygenation	medium	1	train
40	AR6_WGI	37	10	Loss of permafrost carbon following permafrost thaw is irreversible at centennial time scales	high	2	train
41	AR6_WGI	37	14	Relative to 1995–2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2100 is 0.28–0.55 m under the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9); 0.32–0.62 m under the low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6); 0.44–0.76 m under the intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5); and 0.63–1.01 m under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); and by 2150 is 0.37–0.86 m under the very low scenario (SSP1-1.9); 0.46–0.99 m under the low scenario (SSP1-2.6); 0.66–1.33 m under the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5); and 0.98–1.88 m under the very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) (medium confidence).35 Global mean sea level rise above the likely range – approaching 2 m by 2100 and 5 m by 2150 under a very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5)	low	0	train
42	AR6_WGI	37	16	Over the next 2000 years, global mean sea level will rise by about 2 to 3 m if warming is limited to 1.5°C, 2 to 6 m if limited to 2°C and 19 to 22 m with 5°C of warming, and it will continue to rise over subsequent millennia	low	0	test
43	AR6_WGI	37	17	Projections of multi-millennial global mean sea level rise are consistent with reconstructed levels during past warm climate periods: likely 5–10 m higher than today around 125,000 years ago, when global temperatures were very likely 0.5°C–1.5°C higher than 1850–1900; and very likely 5–25 m higher roughly 3 million years ago, when global temperatures were 2.5°C–4°C higher	medium	1	train
44	AR6_WGI	39	32	For example, internal decadal variability and variations in solar and volcanic drivers partially masked human-caused surface global warming during 1998–2012, with pronounced regional and seasonal signatures	high	2	train
45	AR6_WGI	39	33	Nonetheless, the heating of the climate system continued during this period, as reflected in both the continued warming of the global ocean (very high confidence) and in the continued rise of hot extremes over land	medium	1	train
46	AR6_WGI	40	1	At global and regional scales, near-term changes in monsoons will be dominated by the effects of internal variability	medium	1	train
47	AR6_WGI	40	2	In addition to the influence of internal variability, near-term projected changes in precipitation at global and regional scales are uncertain because of model uncertainty and uncertainty in forcings from natural and anthropogenic aerosols	medium	1	train
48	AR6_WGI	40	8	Further decreases are projected in permafrost; snow, glaciers and ice sheets; and lake and Arctic sea ice (medium to high confidence).40 These changes would be larger at 2°C global warming or above than at 1.5°C	high	2	train
49	AR6_WGI	40	9	For example, extreme heat thresholds relevant to agriculture and health are projected to be exceeded more frequently at higher global warming levels	high	2	train
50	AR6_WGI	40	11	Also, more frequent and/or severe agricultural and ecological droughts are projected in a few regions in all inhabited continents except Asia compared to 1850–1900 (medium confidence); increases in meteorological droughts are also projected in a few regions	medium	1	train
51	AR6_WGI	40	12	A small number of regions are projected to experience increases or decreases in mean precipitation	medium	1	train
52	AR6_WGI	40	14	Heavy precipitation and associated flooding events are projected to become more intense and frequent in the Pacific Islands and across many regions of North America and Europe (medium to high confidence).40 These changes are also seen in some regions in Australasia and Central and South America	medium	1	train
53	AR6_WGI	40	16	A small number of regions in Africa, Australasia, Europe and North America are also projected to be affected by increases in hydrological droughts, and several regions are projected to be affected by increases or decreases in meteorological droughts, with more regions displaying an increase	medium	1	train
54	AR6_WGI	40	17	Mean precipitation is projected to increase in all polar, northern European and northern North American regions, most Asian regions and two regions of South America	high	2	train
55	AR6_WGI	41	1	Region-specific changes include intensification of tropical cyclones and/or extratropical storms	medium	1	train
56	AR6_WGI	41	3	Approximately two-thirds of the global coastline has a projected regional relative sea level rise within ±20% of the global mean increase	medium	1	train
57	AR6_WGI	41	4	Due to relative sea level rise, extreme sea level events that occurred once per century in the recent past are projected to occur at least annually at more than half of all tide gauge locations by 2100	high	2	train
58	AR6_WGI	41	5	Relative sea level rise contributes to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and to coastal erosion along most sandy coasts	high	2	train
59	AR6_WGI	41	7	Urbanization also increases mean and heavy precipitation over and/or downwind of cities (medium confidence) and resulting runoff intensity	high	2	train
60	AR6_WGI	41	8	In coastal cities, the combination of more frequent extreme sea level events (due to sea level rise and storm surge) and extreme rainfall/ riverflow events will make flooding more probable	high	2	train
61	AR6_WGI	41	11	Concurrent extremes at multiple locations, including in crop-producing areas, become more frequent at 2°C and above compared to 1.5°C global warming	high	2	train
62	AR6_WGI	43	4	The probability of low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes increases with higher global warming levels	high	2	train
63	AR6_WGI	43	5	Abrupt responses and tipping points of the climate system, such as strongly increased Antarctic ice-sheet melt and forest dieback, cannot be ruled out	high	2	train
64	AR6_WGI	45	13	When adjusted for emissions since previous reports, estimates of remaining carbon budgets are therefore of similar magnitude compared to SR1.5 but larger compared to AR5 due to methodological improvements.44 {5.5, Box 5.2, TS.3.3} (Table SPM.2) D.1.4 Anthropogenic CO 2 removal (CDR) has the potential to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere and durably store it in reservoirs	high	2	train
65	AR6_WGI	45	15	CDR methods can have potentially wide-ranging effects on biogeochemical cycles and climate, which can either weaken or strengthen the potential of these methods to remove CO 2 and reduce warming, and can also influence water availability and quality, food production and biodiversity45	high	2	train
66	AR6_WGI	46	1	CDR would lower atmospheric CO 2 by an amount approximately equal to the increase from an anthropogenic emission of the same magnitude	high	2	train
67	AR6_WGI	46	2	The atmospheric CO 2 decrease from anthropogenic CO 2 removals could be up to 10% less than the atmospheric CO 2 increase from an equal amount of CO 2 emissions, depending on the total amount of CDR	medium	1	train
68	AR6_WGI	46	4	For instance, it would take several centuries to millennia for global mean sea level to reverse course even under large net negative CO 2 emissions	high	2	train
69	AR6_WGI	46	6	In the long term, this net warming is lower in scenarios assuming air pollution controls combined with strong and sustained CH 4 emissions reductions	high	2	train
70	AR6_WGI	46	8	Because of the short lifetime of both CH 4 and aerosols, these climate effects partially counterbalance each other, and reductions in CH 4 emissions also contribute to improved air quality by reducing global surface ozone	high	2	train
71	AR6_WGI	46	12	Emissions pathways that reach and sustain net zero GHG emissions defined by the 100-year global warming potential are projected to result in a decline in surface temperature after an earlier peak	high	2	train
72	AR6_WGI	46	14	Under these contrasting scenarios, discernible differences in trends of global surface temperature would begin to emerge from natural variability within around 20 years, and over longer time periods for many other climatic impact-drivers	high	2	train
73	AR6_WGI	46	16	Global and regional climate responses to this temporary forcing are, however, undetectable above natural variability	high	2	train
74	AR6_WGI	46	17	Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations continued to rise in 2020, with no detectable decrease in the observed CO 2 growth rate	medium	1	train
75	AR6_WGI	47	1	Scenarios with targeted reductions of air pollutant emissions lead to more rapid improvements in air quality within years compared to reductions in GHG emissions only, but from 2040, further improvements are projected in scenarios that combine efforts to reduce air pollutants as well as GHG emissions, with the magnitude of the benefit varying between regions	high	2	train
76	AR6_WGI	47	5	The response of many other climate variables would emerge from natural variability at different times later in the 21st century	high	2	train
77	AR6_WGI	47	7	By the end of the century, scenarios with very low and low GHG emissions would strongly limit the change of several CIDs, such as the increases in the frequency of extreme sea level events, heavy precipitation and pluvial flooding, and exceedance of dangerous heat thresholds, while limiting the number of regions where such exceedances occur, relative to higher GHG emissions scenarios	high	2	test
78	AR6_WGI	47	8	Changes would also be smaller in very low compared to low GHG emissions scenarios, as well as for intermediate (SSP2-4.5) compared to high or very high GHG emissions scenarios	high	2	train
79	AR6_WGI	57	25	Since 2012, strong warming has been observed, with the past five years (2016–2020) being the hottest five- year period in the instrumental record since at least 1850	high	2	train
80	AR6_WGI	62	1	Changes in temperature by latitude in response to multiple forcings show that polar amplification (stronger warming at high latitudes than the global average) is a prominent feature of the climate system across multiple climate states, and the ability of models to simulate this polar amplification in past warm climates has improved since AR5	high	2	train
81	AR6_WGI	62	2	Over the past millennium, and especially since about 1300 CE, simulated global surface temperature anomalies are well within the uncertainty of reconstructions	medium	1	test
82	AR6_WGI	62	7	Model uncertainties in (a) and (b) are 5–95% ranges of multi-model ensemble means; reconstructed uncertainties are 5–95% ranges	medium	1	train
83	AR6_WGI	62	15	Climate models are able to reproduce decadal drought variability on large regional scales, including the severity, persistence and spatial extent of past megadroughts known from proxy records	medium	1	train
84	AR6_WGI	63	1	Although past and future global warming differ in their forcings, evidence from paleoclimate records and modelling show that ice-sheet mass and global mean sea level (GMSL) responded dynamically over multiple millennia	high	2	train
85	AR6_WGI	63	3	For example, under a past global warming levels of around [2.5°C to 4°C] relative to 1850–1900, like during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, sea level was [5 to 25 m] higher than 1900 (medium confidence); under past global warming levels of [10°C to 18°C], like during the Early Eocene, the planet was essentially ice free	high	2	train
86	AR6_WGI	63	8	The paleo context supports the assessment that ongoing increase in ocean heat content (OHC) represents a long-term commitment, essentially irreversible on human time scales	high	2	test
87	AR6_WGI	63	16	At the same time, the storage of remineralized carbon in the ocean interior increased by as much as 750–950 PgC, sufficient to balance the removal of carbon from the atmosphere (200 PgC) and terrestrial biosphere reservoirs combined	high	2	train
88	AR6_WGI	64	16	Increasing horizontal resolution in global climate models improves the representation of small-scale features and the statistics of daily precipitation	high	2	train
89	AR6_WGI	64	17	Earth system models, which include additional biogeochemical feedbacks, often perform as well as their lower-complexity global climate model counterparts, which do not account for these additional feedbacks	medium	1	train
90	AR6_WGI	64	26	Earth system models, characterized by additional biogeochemical feedbacks, often perform at least as well as related, more constrained, lower-complexity models lacking these feedbacks	medium	1	train
91	AR6_WGI	64	29	The CMIP6 models also reproduce surface temperature variations over the past millennium, including the cooling that follows periods of intense volcanism	medium	1	train
92	AR6_WGI	65	4	Because a negative cloud optical depth feedback in response to surface warming results from ‘brightening’ of clouds via active phase change from ice to liquid cloud particles (increasing their shortwave cloud radiative effect), the extratropical cloud shortwave feedback in CMIP6 models tends to be less negative, leading to a better agreement with observational estimates	medium	1	train
93	AR6_WGI	65	7	Increasing horizontal resolution in global climate models improves the representation of small-scale features and the statistics of daily precipitation	high	2	train
94	AR6_WGI	65	11	The overall performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation is similar to that of CMIP5 models	high	2	train
95	AR6_WGI	65	21	Models reproduce observed spatial features and variance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Northern Annular Mode (NAM) very well	high	2	train
96	AR6_WGI	65	22	The summertime SAM trend is well captured, with CMIP6 models outperforming CMIP5 models	medium	1	train
97	AR6_WGI	65	25	Model performance is limited in reproducing sea surface temperature anomalies for decadal modes of variability, despite improvements from CMIP5 to CMIP6	medium	1	train
98	AR6_WGI	65	30	These higher sensitivity values can, in some models, be traced to changes in extratropical cloud feedbacks	medium	1	test
99	AR6_WGI	66	12	The signal of temperature change has emerged more clearly in tropical regions, where year-to-year variations tend to be small over land, than in regions with greater warming but larger year- to-year variations	high	2	train

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ClimateX: Expert Confidence in Climate Statements

What do LLMs know about climate? Let's find out!

ClimateX Dataset

We introduce the Expert Confidence in Climate Statements (ClimateX) dataset, a novel, curated, expert-labeled, natural language dataset of 8094 statements extracted or paraphrased from the IPCC Assessment Report 6: Working Group I report, Working Group II report, and Working Group III report, respectively.

Each statement is labeled with the corresponding IPCC report source, the page number in the report PDF, and the corresponding confidence level, along with their associated confidence levels (low, medium, high, or very high) as assessed by IPCC climate scientists based on available evidence and agreement among their peers.

Confidence Labels

The authors of the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have developed a structured framework to communicate the confidence and uncertainty levels of statements regarding our knowledge of climate change (Mastrandrea, 2010).

Our dataset leverages this distinctive and consistent approach to labelling uncertainty across topics, disciplines, and report chapters, to help NLP and climate communication researchers evaluate how well LLMs can assess human expert confidence in a set of climate science statements from the IPCC reports.

Source: IPCC AR6 Working Group I report

Dataset Construction

To construct the dataset, we retrieved the complete raw text from each of the three IPCC report PDFs that are available online using an open-source library pypdf2. We then normalized the whitespace, tokenized the text into sentences using NLTK , and used regex search to filter for complete sentences including a parenthetical confidence label at the end of the statement, of the form sentence (low|medium|high|very high confidence). The final ClimateX dataset contains 8094 labeled sentences.

From the full 8094 labeled sentences, we further selected 300 statements to form a smaller and more tractable test dataset. We performed a random selection of sentences within each report and confidence category, with the following objectives:

Making the test set distribution representative of the confidence class distribution in the overall train set and within each report;
Making the breakdown between source reports representative of the number of statements from each report;
Making sure the test set contains at least 5 sentences from each class and from each source, to ensure our results are statistically robust.

Then, we manually reviewed and cleaned each sentence in the test set to provide for a fairer assessment of model capacity. We then progamatically cleaned up the train set (removing references and extraneous confidence labels, and explaining acronyms)

The remaining 7794 sentences not allocated to the test split form our train split.

Of note: while the IPCC report uses a 5 levels scale for confidence, almost no very low confidence statement makes it through the peer review process to the final reports, such that no statement of the form sentence (very low confidence) was retrievable. Therefore, we chose to build our data set with only statements labeled as low, medium, high and very high confidence.

Code Download

The code to reproduce dataset collection and our LLM benchmarking experiments is released on GitHub.

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Models trained or fine-tuned on rlacombe/ClimateX

rabuahmad/cc-tweets-classifier

Text Classification • Updated Sep 23 • 2