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AP900511-0159

Elizabeth Taylor Suffers Complications, Six More Weeks in Hospital

Elizabeth Taylor suffered complications including new infections in her fifth week of hospitalization for pneumonia, and will remain hospitalized for about six more weeks, doctors said Friday. The recovery of Miss Taylor, near death two weeks ago with viral pneumonia, was dealt a setback by bacterial pneumonia and a yeast infection, her doctors said. During the next 1{ months, she will require intravenous therapy in the hospital, they said in a statement released by St. John's Hospital and Health Center. Bacterial pneumonia is generally considered less serious than the viral pneumonia Miss Taylor initially contracted. That's because antibiotics are effective against bacteria but not viruses. ``She is tolerating this therapy extremely well and her doctors are pleased with her progress,'' Miss Taylor's publicist, Chen Sam, said after talking to doctors. Hospital spokeswoman Paulette Weir said she couldn't go beyond the statement. Miss Taylor was still in a private room and not the intensive care unit, she said. Earlier this week, Ms. Sam said the 58-year-old actress was improving and would be released from the hospital this week to recuperate at home. During a news conference last month, Miss Taylor's doctors revealed she was near death on April 22. The Oscar-winning star of ``Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?'' and ``Butterfield 8'' entered Daniel Freeman Marina Hospital on April 9 with a sinus infection, but her condition deteriorated and she was moved to St. John's for treatment of viral pneumonia. Miss Taylor was reportedly in one of the hospital's suites. Suites are ``like a small hotel room with a sitting room, a living room area,'' Weir said without confirming whether the actress was in a suite. Visitors throughout Miss Taylor's hospitalization included her four children, Maria Burton-Carson, Liza Todd-Tivey and Christopher and Michael Wilding. Entertainer Michael Jackson also paid a visit.

st. john's hospital;elizabeth taylor;sinus infection;viral pneumonia;intravenous therapy;58-year-old actress;yeast infection;bacterial pneumonia

AP900512-0038

Taylor Faces Six More Weeks in Hospital

Elizabeth Taylor will remain in the hospital six more weeks due to complications in her fifth week of treatment for pneumonia, doctors said. The recovery of Miss Taylor, near death two weeks ago with viral pneumonia, was dealt a setback by bacterial pneumonia and a yeast infection, her doctors said Friday. ``This secondary bacterial pneumonia often follows viral pneumonia. Her condition is listed as stable and she is improving significantly,'' they said in a statement released by St. John's Hospital and Health Center. Earlier this week Miss Taylor's New York publicist, Chen Sam, had said the 58-year-old actress was improving and would be released from the hospital this week to recuperate at home. During a news conference last month, Miss Taylor's doctors revealed she was near death on April 22. The Oscar-winning star of ``Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?'' and ``Butterfield 8'' entered Daniel Freeman Marina Hospital on April 9 with a sinus infection, but her condition deteriorated and she was moved to St. John's for treatment of viral pneumonia.

st. john's hospital;recovery;elizabeth taylor;viral pneumonia;58-year-old actress;yeast infection;miss taylor;bacterial pneumonia

AP900521-0063

Increase Of Tuberculosis Due to AIDS Virus Poses New Health Threat

Tuberculosis is alarming health officials again because it's posing new health threats with its connection to the AIDS virus. A 35 percent increase in tuberculosis in 1989 in Newark, N.J., has caught the attention of health officials, who had been previously recording with satisfaction a slow, steady decrease in TB cases over the last few decades. They attribute the 5 percent national increase in TB cases in 1989 to the ravages of the AIDS virus, which destroys the body's immune system and leaves victims open to TB infection, Dr. Philip C. Hopewell of San Francisco General Hospital said Sunday. Hopewell and other health officials discussed the link between AIDS and TB during the a four-day World Conference on Lung Health in Boston, which ends Wednesday. About 4 percent of Americans identified as having the AIDS virus also have been diagnosed as being infected with tuberculosis, said Dr. Dixie E. Snider Jr., director of the division of tuberculosis control at the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta. The American Lung Association estimates that 20,000 Americans a year develop TB. In parts of Africa, where AIDS is already a health risk, tuberculosis has become epidemic, said Dr. Annik Rouillon, executive director of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease in Paris. ``The combination of the two is really catastrophic,'' she said. Snider stressed that tuberculosis, unlike AIDS, is a curable disease and called for TB screenings at drug rehabilitation programs, prisons or other places where AIDS tests are being administered. Snider also said doctors should administer TB tests to all persons testing positive for the HIV virus since TB may not be readily diagnosed in AIDS patients. ``It's important we get control of the situation,'' he said. In Wyoming, the Centers for Disease Control recorded no new cases of TB in 1989, demonstrating that it is a condition that can be controlled and cured, according to Dr. Lee B. Reichman, director of the pulmonary division of the University of Medicine and Dentistry in New Jersey. ``I have never heard of a rise of the magnitude seen in New Jersey or, on the other hand, the hope generated by no cases in one state,'' Reichman said. Moreover, unlike AIDS, TB is a highly contagious disease that can be spread by airborne particles coughed up by a person with untreated, clinically active pulmonary TB. Untreated, tuberculosis kills about 50 percent of its victims within two years, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Snider said sustained contact is necessary for TB transmission, and would not pose new problems for AIDS victims already fighting discrimination in jobs and housing. However, he noted that there had been an increase in positive TB tests among AIDS health workers. Tuberculosis is caused by a bacterium that commonly affects the lungs but can attack almost any organ. For the last three decades, it has been preventable and curable through multiple drug therapy, Snider said. Snider said 10 million to 15 million Americans have been infected with the tuberculosis germ, but only a small percentage of them develop the disease because their immune system was strong enough to prevent the disease from developing. If, however, a person's immune system is impaired by poor nutrition or weakened by the HIV virus, people can develop active TB. ``TB is long known as an opportunistic organism,'' Hopewell said. The doctors said U.S. minority groups have become increasing susceptible to TB. Snider said there has been a 150 percent increased in cases of TB among young blacks in New York City. Tuberculosis can be effectively treated, even in AIDS patients, underscoring efforts to screen persons for the disease, the doctor said. Reichman noted that most American have forgotten about the problems of TB; from 1981 to 1984, TB cases declined an average of 6 percent per year according to the Centers for disease control. But, he said, ``TB is back with a vengeance.'' While associated with poverty and crowded living conditions, TB through history has ravaged both the poor and the famous. TB victims include Henry David Thoreau, Washington Irving, Franz Kafka, Ring Lardner, Somerset Maugham and Vivien Leigh. An estimated 3 million persons a year die worldwide from TB, according to the American Lung Association.

disease control;aids virus;tb cases;lung disease;new health threats;tuberculosis

AP900529-0005

Hugo Instructive for Coastal Residents as Hurricane Season Begins

People caught by Hurricane Hugo last year might disagree, but forecasters here say the deadly storm may have had a positive side effect _ it got the public's attention. And one forecaster says hurricane seasons may be getting worse. Hugo, which caused an unprecedented $10 billion in damage, killed 28 people in the Lesser Antilles islands and an additional 29 in South Carolina. But it would have been much more deadly if it had hit almost anywhere else, says Bob Sheets, director of the National Hurricane Center. At the advent of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, Sheets and other hurricane experts are using Hugo's example to get the attention of complacent coastal residents who've never experienced such fury. ``We'll take advantage of the fact that there was a Hugo last year and raise people's awareness,'' said Sheets. ``The consequences of not being prepared are too great.'' Early warnings about Hugo last September allowed 350,000 people to evacuate safely, and in South Carolina the worst of the hurricane struck the Francis Marion National Forest between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, Sheets said. It heavily damaged the fishing village of McClellanville and several small rural communities, but the population there is sparse. If Hugo had struck a major coastal population center, the destruction would have been greater than most Americans have ever seen, according to computer simulations known as SLOSH models, for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes. With SLOSH, forecasters can predict the height of the storm surge _ the mass of water piled up by the storm that is a hurricane's most destructive component _ anywhere along the U.S. coast by punching in a storm's speed, size and intensity, Sheets said. ``The population density in South Carolina is a lot different from the Florida coast, New Jersey or Galveston, Texas,'' Sheets said. ``Compare that situation to the Miami-through-Palm Beach area _ all of Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties would have been ... destroyed.'' Hugo was the worst hurricane to strike the southeastern U.S. coast since Betsy hit the Florida Keys in 1965, killing 74 before it went on to Missisippi and Louisiana. Since then, the population of areas such as south Florida has ballooned and most residents have never directly experienced a hurricane. According to one of the nation's leading hurricane experts, Hugo may have been the first in a new era of killer storms. ``No one knows for sure, but the odds are, Florida and the East Coast are going to get it,'' William Gray, professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, told a national conference of weather experts this month. Gray came to this conclusion after his usually accurate predictions for hurricane activity were off the mark last year. He had figured the 1989 season would be relatively mild, with only four hurricanes; instead, seven hurricanes and four tropical storms killed a total of 84 people. ``He blew it pretty bad,'' Sheets said. ``But then he looked at the rainfall over Africa, and found an amazing correlation between rainfall there and hurricane activity over Florida.'' Gray realized the 30-year drought in Africa's Sahel region corresponds almost exactly to the years when no major hurricanes have struck the southeastern coast. ``Whether one causes the other is uncertain. They both may reflect larger-scale events. But the Sahel is now getting up to near-normal rainfall,'' Sheets said. Gray plans to release his predictions for 1990 on June 5. Tropical storms have been recorded in the Atlantic in every month except April, but are rare outside the June 1 to Nov. 30 season. Last week, a preseason tropical depression brought heavy rain to Cuba. A tropical depression becomes a tropical storm and is given a name if its sustained winds reach 39 mph; it becomes a hurricane if winds reach 74 mph. The names for Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms this year are: Arthur, Bertha, Cesar, Diana, Edouard, Fran, Gustav, Hortense, Isidore, Josephine, Klaus, Lili, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

william gray;damage;forecasters;population density;deadly storm;atlantic hurricane season;southeastern u.s. coast;hurricane hugo;south carolina

AP900601-0040

Hurricane Center Director Warns of New Era of Destructive Storms

The 1990 Atlantic hurricane season begins today amid dire warnings that killer storms on the East and Gulf coasts in the last two years may have been harbingers of a new era of destructive storms. The hurricane season runs until Nov. 30 and was ushered in by a tropical depression last week in the Caribbean that brought heavy rain to Cuba and south Florida but did not intensify into a hurricane. Many coastal communities, with swelling populations, are ill-prepared to handle a hurricane emergency, said Robert Sheets, director of the National Hurricane Center. A recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report predicts the number of people in seaside counties from Maine to Texas will grow 60 percent, counting from 1960 until 2010. Some states such as Florida and Texas will experience near 200 percent growth during the period, the report said. ``What we're looking at is the possibility of greater destruction and greater loss of life,'' Sheets said Thursday. ``We can't stop the hurricanes. The only thing we can do is work on better preparedness and emergency planning.'' The aftermath from Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and Hugo last year taught officials what improvements are needed to better evacuate and protect the estimated 45 million coastal residents from Maine to Texas, Sheets said. ``If the long-term trends are any indication of what's to come, we are in for more frequent and stronger hurricanes,'' said Sheets. Gilbert killed more than 300 people and caused heavy damage from the Lesser Antilles to Mexico. Hugo killed 28 people in the eastern Caribbean and 29 more in South Carolina and caused a record $10 billion in damage. Sheets said the predictions of increased hurricane activity are based on studies of past decades, atmospheric low-pressure waves and increased rainfall trends in West Africa, near the breeding waters for most hurricanes. Hurricane activity started dropping after drought conditions began in the early 1960s in Africa's Sahel region, he said. Between 1940 and 1969, the United States was hit by 22 hurricanes with minimum winds of 110 mph. From 1970 to 1989, there were only eight such storms, including Hugo, Sheets said. ``I hope we don't catch up this year with the decade of the '40s,'' he said. There are five categories of hurricanes, ranging from Category 1, which has top sustained winds of 74 mph to 95 mph, to Category 5, with top winds greater then 155 mph. Both Gilbert and Hugo reached category 5, according to meteorologist Barry Fatchwell of the National Hurricane Center. Sheets praised most South Carolina officials' response to Hugo, but said some leaders ``didn't have their proverbial act together'' and lives may have been saved. Also, he said Hugo showed inadequacies in the Emergency Broadcast System and some communities used emergency shelters ill-suited to withstand a powerful hurricane. In the Caribbean, officials have worked to improve communications systems after links were cut by Gilbert.

hurricane gilbert;destructive storms;caribbean;coastal residents;hurricane emergency;hurricane activity;hugo;predictions;atlantic hurricane season

AP900607-0039

Shining Path Rebels Have Formed New Urban Front, Garcia Says

Shining Path rebels have formed a new front to push their insurgency into Lima and other coastal urban areas, President Alan Garcia said after two powerful car bombs exploded within blocks of the Government Palace. Garcia spoke Wednesday in an atmosphere of stepped up rebel attacks in Lima and a series of weekend raids around the capital that resulted in the seizure of five Shining Path safe houses and 31 arrests. The president, who leaves office July 28, said the newly formed People's Defense Revolutionary Movement, is the ``urban, metropolitan organ of the Shining Path.'' The Maoist-inspired Shining Path operates in at least half of Peru, especially in the mountains and jungle, but has had little success in expanding to coastal cities. At least 18,500 people have been killed in political violence related to the decade-old insurgency, which was launched in the Andean highlands. The Shining Path draws much of its support from indigenous peoples resentful of the economic and political dominance in the country of 22 million of descendants of European immigrants. The wave of violence comes four days before a presidential runoff that pits novelist Mario Vargas Llosa, a free-market activist, against centrist agricultural engineer Alberto Fujimori. The Shining Path has called on voters to boycott Sunday's vote and threatened election day ``armed strikes'' in Andean cities. In one of the guerrilla safehouses raided in an upper-class Lima suburb, police found tons of Shining Path documents and propaganda. They also found personal possessions that apparently belonged to Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman. Garcia said he believed the raids proved that ``the chief of terrorism actively participates'' in Shining Path operations. Guzman went underground in 1979 and, over the years, there have been numerous rumors he was dead. The raids also proved that the new urban front has been formed, Garcia said: ``The people who were captured were essential to the new movement.'' Two people were injured in the car bombings near the Government Palace on Tuesday night and Wednesday and Garcia called the upsurge in urban violence a ``desperate response'' to the weekend raids. In other violence Wednesday in Lima, a city of 6 million, four rebels armed with machine guns took over a neighborhood electoral office. They forced the electoral workers outside and set fire to the office. Firefighters said the blaze destroyed most of the documents in the building, including identification for electoral workers. Guerrillas blew up at least three high-tension power pylons Tuesday night, blacking out parts of the capital and other coastal cities where most of Peru's 22 million people live. In pre-dawn attacks Wednesday, guerrillas threw gasoline bombs at a city bus and at a stove factory owned by a senator-elect of Fujimori's Change 90 party, according to police. Tuesday's car bomb went off behind Lima's Roman Catholic cathedral, which faces the main plaza where the Government Palace is located. Police said the cathedral was not damaged, but one passerby was wounded. Operating out of its stronghold in Ayacucho, the Shining Path has spread throughout Peru's highlands since it launched its armed insurgency in May 1980. The movement, which seeks to impose a peasant-worker state, also controls much of Peru's jungle. Efforts to move into Lima's sprawling shantytowns, however, have been countered by strong police crackdowns.

shining path rebels;indigenous peoples;defense revolutionary movement;powerful car bombs;president alan garcia;lima;shining path leader abimael guzman;presidential runoff;coastal urban areas;political violence;rebel attacks

AP900619-0006

Midwest Sees 1990 Tornado Parade

1990 is fast becoming one of the worst years on record for tornadoes and flooding across the middle and southern sections of the nation. So far this year, 726 tornadoes have touched down nationwide, well ahead of the 640 tornadoes recorded during the first six months of last year, and the 30-year average of 482 tornadoes recorded between January and July, said Frederick Ostby of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center here. The nation had 747 tornadoes in the first six months of 1973 _ one of the biggest years for tornadoes since 1950, when the forecast center began keeping reliable records of the storms. There were 756 tornadoes reported in 1982. ``We seem to be on a pace that would put us up with those two years,'' Ostby said. The culprit in this tornado barrage across the Plains is a persistent West Coast pattern of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that is keeping the jet stream anchored at a southern latitude. This year's storms seem particularly violent, as illustrated by the March 13 tornado that cut a swath a mile wide and brought winds of 300 mph to a field in Kansas. The tornado was the strongest to hit the United States since 1985. The first weekend in June saw the worst outburst of tornadoes since 1974. Ostby said 101 tornadoes touched down from Kansas to Kentucky, leaving nine people dead. But a break in the storm pattern may be at hand. As summer wears on, the land warms up and cold air from Canada retreats. This moves the boundary of the jet stream to the north, Ostby said. ``Our longer range computer forecasts are suggestive of that. There is some kind of a readjustment beginning to take place in the upper atmosphere,'' he said. However, a study of tornado trends indicates parts of the Midwest, particularly Kansas and Missouri, are heading into a six-year period of more intense tornadoes. The study of tornadoes since early this century shows that they are concentrated in regions for five- or six-year periods, said Michael Smith, president of WeatherData Inc. But warning of impending storms is becoming more sophisticated, leading to fewer deaths. Tornadoes have caused 20 deaths this year, while an average year in the 1980s saw 52 deaths, and in the 1970s nearly 100, Ostby said. ``There are better watches, better warnings and a better response,'' Ostby said. Ostby credited the quicker response to computers that allow meteorologists to see many sources of data, such as satellite readings, more clearly. Flooding in the South and the Plains has been as destructive as the tornadoes. The death toll from last week's flash floods in Shadyside, Ohio, rose to 21 on Monday, making the flood one of the most deadly in recent years. Authorities held out little hope for more than a dozen others listed as missing. Wegee and Pipe creeks overflowed during storms that dumped 5{ inches of rain in 3{ hours. The floods destroyed as many as 70 houses and damaged up to 40, officials said. Flooding in Texas has been blamed for at least 16 deaths since April. An estimated 10,000 people were forced from their homes, and high water caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

damage;storms;study;tornadoes;tornado trends;deaths;flooding

AP900625-0160

Slovenia to Start Work on New Constitution Giving it Sovereignty

The republic of Slovenia plans to begin work on a constitution that will give it full sovereignty within a new Yugoslav confederation, the state Tanjug news agency reported Monday. Slovenia, whose 2 million inhabitants account for a fraction of Yugoslavia's total population of 23 million, is the most politically liberal and prosperous of the country's six member republics. Slovenia ``should be set up as a sovereign state, with all attributes of factual authority and with full international-legal rights,'' Tanjug said, quoting from a declaration of the Slovenian presidency, the top local ruling body. The Slovenian move was endorsed by Slovenia's president, Milan Kucan, who told a Monday session of the presidency that the new constitution will be the ``constitution of the sovereign state of Slovenia, and not of one of the federal (republics),'' Tanjug said. The proposal is to be discussed by Slovenia's parliament in mid-July, Kucan said. Its approval is viewed as almost certain. Slovenia has been frequently accused by politicians and the media in Yugoslavia's more conservative southern republics, and particularly in the country's largest republic of Serbia, of harboring separatist tendencies and of protecting its own interests at the expense of federal goals. Slovenian authorities claim Serbia is trying to politically and economically dominate the Yugoslav federation by introducing greater federal control and by limiting the autonomy of the republics. More than 70 percent of the residents of the northern republic believe their region might be better off if it were outside the Yugoslav federation, results of a public opinion poll said last March. Only 15 percent of the Slovenes surveyed expressed their wish for Slovenia to remain a republic within Yugoslavia in the present form. Both Slovenia and Croatia, the two Yugoslav republics that held free elections this year, have proclaimed a readiness to turn the Yugoslav federation of six republics and two provinces into a looser confederation of states cooperating voluntarily. Also Monday, Serbia's president Slobodan Milosevic, in a speech to the Serbian parliament, said the new constitution Serbia is preparing is designed to ``offset the transformation of federal Yugoslavia into a confederation.''

slovenian presidency;serbia;milan kucan;full sovereignty;federal goals;yugoslav federation;new yugoslav confederation;federal control;separatist tendencies

AP900629-0260

England-France Tunnel Halfway There Despite Problems

It's been described as the largest current civil engineering project, a multibillion dollar link that will help revolutionize Europe's economy and physically end Britain's historic isolation, a dream born in Napoleon's day. The ``Chunnel'' between Britain and France is half-dug and scheduled to open on time in three years. But the three-tunnel thoroughfare under the English Channel is almost 60 percent over budget, embroiled in a contractor dispute and scrambling for more investment money. The project also has raised increasing hostility among many Britons, who fear it will provide an easy conduit for ills from the continent ranging from terrorism to rabid animals. ``We will have the money to finish the project,'' says Alastair Morton, British deputy chairman of Eurotunnel, the privately owned Anglo-French company overseeing the work. The Chunnel's June 15, 1993 scheduled debut will come six months after the 12-nation European Community formally drops remaining trade barriers and becomes a unified marketplace of 320 million consumers. But the project's success hinges on much more than just finishing the undug part. While the French are forging ahead with a high-speed rail link to their end of the tunnel, for example, state-owned British Rail is dragging. ``Britain becomes branch line of Europe,'' a Guardian newspaper headline declared after the government announced June 14 that it would not fund a high-speed rail link between London and the British end of the tunnel. It's not the first time the idea of a tunnel has irritated Britain's island identity. The British resisted an undersea bond with the continent envisioned nearly 200 years ago by a French engineer named Albert Mathieu. Napoleon wanted to build it but Britain warned him off. Tunneling actually was started in subsequent efforts in 1882 and 1974 but they were scrapped. The Chunnel project also has been marred by eight accidental deaths on the site. The British public demonstrates little enthusiasm for the Chunnel. Random samplings elicit fears that it will import rabies, terrorists, invading armies. ``There is an attitude in France that this is a great project in the national interest. In this country, the attitude to these projects tends to be the reverse,'' Morton told a recent news conference. Eurotunnel Chairman Andre Benard said the company has provided for any foreseeable problems, but stressed: ``We always made it very clear that this was a risk project.'' Giant boring machines are digging three tunnels toward each other from Folkestone, England and Calais, France, with the first underground meeting expected in November in the service tunnel between the rail tunnels. Tunneling is three months ahead of schedule on the French side, a week behind on the British. As of mid-June, workers had dug 53.2 of the total 91.9 miles. Chunnel trains will carry passengers, cars and freight between London and Paris in about three hours, roughly the same time as a flight including ground travel, and at least twice as fast as a car-ferry journey. Eurotunnel estimates that 28 million passengers and 17 percent of Britain's non-oil trade will pass through the tunnel in the first year. The Civil Aviation Authority says the tunnel should divert 5 million out of 53 million air passengers annually. This past Wednesday, shareholders approved a sale of an extra $906 million worth of stock to existing shareholders, who already have bought $1.7 billion worth. That step could clear the way for a bank syndicate's approval of additional credit Eurotunnel has requested, from $8.6 billion to $12 billion. Assuming banks approve, the project would have a total of about $14.6 billion in debt and equity financing. The company most recently estimated it would cost $13.1 billion to complete, vs. $8.3 billion forecast initially. ``History dictates that that will not be the last figure we hear. But the order of magnitude of increase will slow down,'' said Richard Hannah, a transport analyst with the London investment firm UBS Phillips and Drew. He expected the extra financing to come through. ``It's one of these situations where the more money you put in, the more you have to spend or else you're walking away from billions of pounds,'' Hannah said. Eurotunnel says it doesn't expect to p end of the century, and probably won't pay shareholders a dividend until 1999, four years later than envisioned. But stockholders haven'rofit before thet fared badly: The shares, first traded in November 1987 at about $6, have traded recently at $8.55. The more urgent worries for Eurotunnel have been costs, creditors and contractor feuds. In October, concern about the rising pricetag drove Eurotunnel's banking syndicate to freeze funds for three months until the company reached a truce with Trans-Manche Link, the consortium of 10 British and French contractors doing the construction, over responsibility for $1.7 billion in overruns. The problems led to Eurotunnel's second management shakeup since 1987. The British government's refusal to finance a rail link has presented another big obstacle. Eurotunnel says is can survive without a new link. But cnt that she won't spend taxpayers' money on a rail link. The French government, on the contrary, is spending roughly $2.8 billion building 210 miles of rail from Paris to the tunnel, with a branch to Brussels, where the EC is headquartered. Trains capable of 190 mph will link the tunnel's freight and passengers to another planned high-speed system. One reason the French are enthusiastic is that the tunnel surfaces in one of the most depressed areas of France. On the other hand, residents of Kent, in England's rural and prosperous Southeast, have campaigned strenuously against having high-speed trains screaming through their back yards.

contractor dispute;budget;english channel;chunnel trains;rail tunnels;easy conduit;high-speed rail link;chunnel project;investment money;three-tunnel thoroughfare

AP900703-0040

Full Sovereignty Proclaimed by Slovenian Parliament

The lawmakers who replaced the Communists as leaders of the prosperous northern republic of Slovenia have proclaimed the state's full sovereignty, but stopped short of calling for secession. There was no immediate reaction to the Slovenian declaration from federal authorities or from rival Serbia. Monday's parliamentary declaration provides for establishing an independent legal system that would take precedence over federal laws and for Slovenian control over armed forces stationed in the republic, state media said. The document said Slovenia should adopt a new democratic constitution within the next 12 months, but made no mention of earlier calls for the republic to secede from the troubled Yugoslav federation. The media said a joint session of the republic's 240-seat legislature voted unanimously to adopt the Declaration of Sovereignty of the State of Slovenia. Slovenia contains 2 million of Yugoslavia's total population of 23 million. The Ljubljana nightly television news said the declaration asked Slovenian authorities to ``assume control over units of the (Yugoslav) armed forces stationed on Slovenian territory,'' and said a 30 percent cut in defense spending would be implemented. A coalition of center-right parties formed a new government last month in Slovenia, the most prosperous of Yugoslavia's six republics, after trouncing reform Communists in the first free state elections held in Communist-ruled Yugoslavia in 45 years. The republic's new authorities demand that Yugoslavia transform itself into a loose confederation of sovereign states. They threaten that Slovenia will declare full independence from Yugoslavia if the remaining republics do not accept its proposals for a confederation. Yugoslavia, including Slovenia, was created in 1918. Premier Lojze Peterle and other Slovenian leaders also say Slovenia should take urgent steps to join the European Community, no matter what Yugoslavia's Communist-ruled southern states say. The demands have been echoed in Croatia, the country's second-largest state. A center-right party came to power there last month in free elections. The hard-line Communist government in the largest state of Serbia vehemently opposes turning Yugoslavia into a confederation. Serbia rejects Western-style democracy and does not plan to hold free elections for at least another year. The Slovenian declaration also said police should take over control of frontiers with neighboring Italy and Austria, replacing border guards deployed for the past 45 years by Yugoslavia's Communist government, Ljubljana TV said. It said the state would establish its own intelligence and counter-intelligence services, that would be independent of their Communist-controlled federal counterparts. The adoption of a declaration of sovereignty has been under discussion in the new Parliament since the new government was installed in May. Slovenia's president, Milan Kucan, has said that Slovenia intends to proclaim sovereignty as part of its drive for liberal political and economic reform in Yugoslavia. The timing of Monday's proclamation by Slovenia may have been affected by Serbia's sudden decision last week to hold a special referendum Sunday and Monday on adopting consitutional reforms that would virtually destroy any remaining autonomy for its troubled province of Kosovo. Slovenia and Croatia increasingly have sided with Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority in its drive for autonomy from Serbia. In Kosovo's capital of Pristina, after Serbian police on Monday barred about 100 ethnic Albanian deputies from entering the province's Parliament, about 40 deputies proclaimed Kosovo equal to the six Yugoslav republics. The deputies want to revoke a constitutional amendment that gave Serbia almost total control over Kosovo.

communist-ruled yugoslavia;federal authorities;independent legal system;troubled yugoslav federation;loose confederation;yugoslav republics;slovenian control;full sovereignty;slovenian declaration

AP900721-0110

Weather Could Cloud Eclipse Spectacle for Finns

Cloudy weather Saturday threatened to mar the show for thousands of Finnish and foreign skygazers hoping to glimpse a total solar eclipse in this land of the midnight sun. The weather forecast took a turn for the worse in the evening, when the Finnish Meteorological Services predicted cloudy weather with a chance of showers for eastern Finland on Sunday. In the eastern town of Joensuu, a television news broadcast late Saturday showed it was already cloudy there with a light drizzle falling. The solar eclipse in Finland starts at 4:03 a.m. Sunday (9:03 p.m. EDT Saturday). At that time, the moon will begin gradually moving between the Earth and the sun. The total eclipse begins at 4:52 a.m. in Helsinki and will last 83 seconds. After the total phase of the eclipse, the moon will move away, uncovering more and more of the sun. The eclipse ends at 5:45 a.m. in Helsinki. About 10,000 people _ including 3,000 foreigners _ have converged on Joensuu, about 50 miles from the Soviet border. There conditions there are considered especially good for viewing the eclipse _ weather permitting. In Helsinki, the total eclipse phase will occur 16 minutes after sunrise, when the sun is only 1 degree above the horizon. At Joensuu, 310 miles northeast of Helsinki, the sun will be 5 degrees above the horizon in the total phase at a better angle for watchers. The sun rises unusually early during summer in the extreme northern latitudes where Finland is located. The sun comes up unusually late during winter. Ten months ago, Joensuu hired an ``eclipse secretary'' to handle arrangements for the expected influx of visitors. But that official, Marjut Cadia, said she had underestimated the interest in the event. ``We completely sold out the 10,000 special eyeglasses we made for this event, and our extra stock is finished too,'' she said in a television interview Saturday. During the past week, newspapers, television and radio have been full of information about solar eclipses, as well as advice for spectators not to stare directly into the sun. Some eclipse viewers won't have to worry about the clouds, because they will be above them. Finnair, the national airline, has arranged a dozen special flights for eclipse watchers, and private companies with small planes will provide more. The eclipse will be total in an arc about 125 miles wide from the northern Baltic Sea and southeast Finland, across the Kola Peninsula and northeast Soviet Union, to the Aleutian Islands near Alaska. Scientists will conduct several experiments during the eclipse, including gravity test measurements of the radius of the sun. However, scientific interest in this eclipse has been less than in longer eclipses, such as the seven-minute eclipse seen from northern Kenya on June 30, 1973. Seppo Linnaluoto of the Ursa Astronomical Association said the best place for observations of this eclipse will be the northeast Soviet Union. The last total eclipse to be seen in Finland occurred in 1945.

total phase;solar eclipses;total solar eclipse;watchers;observations;special eyeglasses;finland

AP900829-0120

Military Cargo Plane Crash Site Yields Few Clues

Nine reservists helping in the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf were among the 13 people killed in the crash of U.S. military cargo plane in West Germany, military authorities said Wednesday. The crash early Wednesday of the huge C-5A transport was the first major accident in the nearly 3-week-old, round-the-clock deployment of U.S. personnel and equipment to the gulf. ``I don't want to speculate on the cause of this mishap,'' said Brig. Gen. Richard Swope of the 316th Air Division. ``We don't have any indication as to what the cause of the accident was.'' Four of the 17 people aboard the cargo plane were injured when the massive aircraft tumbled into a field early Wednesday after taking off from Ramstein Air Base, a stopover for many U.S. military flights bound for the gulf region. The plane was bound for Frankfurt carrying medical supplies, food and aircraft maintenance equipment for U.S. troops sent to Saudi Arabia following the Aug. 2 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, U.S. Air Force officials said. Late Wednesday, the Air Force released the names of the victims. No hometowns were listed. Nine of those killed and one of those injured were reservists with the 433rd Military Airlift Wing from Kelly Air Force Base in San Antonio. The four others were stationed at Ramstein or at nearby Hahn Air Base. Listed as dead from the 433rd were Maj. John M. Gordon, pilot; Maj. Richard W. Chase, pilot; Sgt. Rosendo Herrera, flight engineer; Sgt. Carpio Villarreal, flight engineer; Sgt. Daniel G. Perez, loadmaster; Sgt. Edward E. Sheffield, loadmaster; Maj. Richard M. Price, first pilot; Sgt. Lonty A. Knutson, crew chief; and Sgt. Daniel Garza, crew chief. Also killed were Capt. Bradley Schuldt and Sgt. Rande Hulec of Ramstein and sergeants Samuel Gardner and Marc Cleyman of Hahn. Listed as injured were Lt. Col. Frederick Arzt and Sgt. Dwight Pettit, both of McChord Air Base in Washington state; Capt. Cynthia Borecky of England Air Base, Louisiana, and Sgt. Lorenzo Galvan Jr. of the 433rd. The four were hospitalized and reported in satisfactory condition, said Sgt. Rourk Sheehan, spokesman for the Landstuhl Army hospital nearby. The 433rd had not been called to active duty, but some reservists with the wing were voluntarily participating in Operation Desert Shield after arranging time off from their civilian jobs. The plane was from the 60th Military Airlift Squadron from Travis Air Force Base in California and was en route to Rhein-Mein Air Base near Frankfurt, authorities said. It left the Ramstein air base at about 12:30 a.m. and clipped the tops of trees before crashing and breaking apart. Twisted chunks of wings, landing gear, fuselage and other debris were scattered over a wide area. Firefighters were still dousing smoldering sections of wreckage 12 hours after the crash. The weather was hazy but visibility was about one mile, said Swope. He said the aircraft was just over 20 years old, which he said is not uncommon for the C-5. The accident occurred about six miles from Miesau, where U.S. military authorities have been removing a cache of chemical weapons under an agreement with the West German government. The West German Defense Ministry said in a statement Wednesday the crash posed no danger to the operation. Ramstein, the largest U.S. Air Force base in Europe, is 90 miles west of Frankfurt. The C-5 is the largest transport plane in the Air Force fleet and costs about $148 million. It was the first crash of a C-5 in 15 years. On April 4, 1975, a C-5B carrying Vietnamese orphans crashed shortly after takeoff near Saigon, killing 172 people. The crash Wednesday occurred a day after the second anniversary of a collision during an air show at Ramstein which killed 70 people.

crash;ramstein air base;u.s. military cargo plane;victims;major accident;west germany;massive aircraft;c-5a transport;reservists

AP900910-0020

1988 Drought Effects Not as Bad as Feared

Two years ago, it looked as if a vast part of the nation's farm empire was burning up as drought and heat parched crops and livestock. But the 1988 drought wasn't as bad as it might have been, according to an Agriculture Department analysis. Crop yields plummeted, but commodity prices rose. For those who eked out some production, or had grain stored from previous years, it wasn't too bad. The latest postmortem of the 1988 drought's effects was written by Gerald W. Whittaker of the department's Economic Research Service. It concentrated on the most severe drought region, centered in nine states of the Midwest and upper Great Plains. All of the information used in the study was from USDA's annual Farm Costs and Returns Survey, which includes detailed income and expense information derived from personal interviews of farm operators. Basic findings: _Net farm income decreased in 1988 in the drought region to an average of $28,899 per farm from $38,122 in 1987. Income in non-drought areas rose to $62,822 in 1988 from $50,967 in 1987. As used by the agency, net farm income includes gross income from farming during the calendar year, including federal payments, minus costs of production. It also includes allowances for changes in the value of inventories and adjustments for depreciation and other factors. _Despite drought, farms in all areas of the country continued to improve their solvency position in 1988. _The number of farms considered financially vulnerable continued to decrease in 1988 in both the drought and non-drought regions. _Farms in the drought region received lower direct government payments in 1988, despite an infusion of federal disaster relief. _The average farm in the drought region survived financially by selling off inventories and taking advantage of higher commodity market prices to redeem price support loans made by USDA's Commodity Credit Corp. No state-by-state breakdowns were included in the report. The nine states studied as the ``drought region'' were Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. In the category of net farm income, the report said the share of farms in a ``favorable financial position'' in 1988 held fairly steady at 68 percent in the non-drought region, compared with 69.1 percent in 1987. In the drought states, 62.2 percent of the farms were said to be in favorable financial position, compared with 62.8 percent in 1987. ``Even with lower incomes, farmers in the drought region continued to improve their debt position (in relation to assets),'' the report said. ``A major factor in their improvement was the continued upward trend in land values.'' The report noted that higher market prices helped reduce the direct payments to farmers in 1988 under USDA's commodity programs. Nationally, those payments dropped to $9.8 billion from $11.5 billion in 1987. But Congress also provided nearly $3.9 billion in emergency drought aid to farmers in 1988. The nine states in the study collected about $2.57 billion, or two-thirds of the total.

agriculture department analysis;federal payments;favorable financial position;commodity market prices;severe drought region;federal disaster relief;solvency position;emergency drought aid;1988 drought

AP901010-0036

F-111 Crashes in Saudi Arabia, Killing Two

A U.S. Air Force F-111 fighter-bomber crashed today in Saudi Arabia, killing both crew members, U.S. military officials reported. It was the fourth American aircraft to crash in three days among those deployed to this kingdom for Operation Desert Shield. Eight Marines are missing in the crash of two helicopters in the northern Arabian Sea on Monday. An Air Force F-4 reconnaissance jet also went down that day, killing both crew members. Lt. Cmdr. J.D. van Sickle, a military spokesman, said the F-111 crashed in the ``southern Arabian peninsula'' while on a training mission and that the incident was under investigation. The names of the flyers were withheld pending notification of next of kin. The aircraft was attached the 48th Tactical Fighter Wing based at RAF Lakenheath Air Base in Britain. The wing was sent to Turkey as U.S. forces massed in the region in response to Iraq's Aug. 2 takeover of Kuwait. Today's crash brought to at least nine the number of Americans killed in the Persian Gulf region since Operation Desert Shield began. The eight Marines aboard the two UH-1 Huey helicopters that vanished Monday are still officially listed as missing. In addition to those killed in Saudi Arabia, 13 other Air Force personnel were killed in a crash of a C-5 jet cargo plane in Germany. That aircraft was ferrying supplies and equipment to the Saudi peninsula. Officials said the F-111 crashed at dawn. The aircraft was an F-model, the latest version of the 23-year-old swing-wing jet that first saw action in Vietnam. The F-model has more powerful engines, and state-of-the-art equipment to operate against enemy targets at night. The plane can carry up to 12 tons of bombs and missiles and has a crew of two, a pilot and a weapons systems officer.

crash;crew members;f-model;operation desert shield;u.s. air force f-111 fighter-bomber;saudi arabia

AP901012-0032

Desert Shield Training Flights Resume After Grounding

U.S. Air Force war planes participating in Operation Desert Shield are flying again after they were ordered grounded for 24 hours following a rash of crashes. Pentagon and Air Force officials said regular training flight schedules resumed Thursday at noon local time (5 a.m. EDT). The flights account for a majority of U.S. air missions in the Persian Gulf region. The Air Force ``has not changed anything'' in flight operations as a result of the suspension of flights, Capt. A.C. Roper, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command, said in Saudi Arabia. He said Air Force officials wanted to ``examine potential hazards and to be sure they were doing everything possible to prevent accidents. ``They have not identified any common cause or common contributing factors'' to the recent accidents, he added. At the Pentagon, spokesman Pete Williams said the number of U.S. aircraft accidents in the gulf - including three separate crashes this week - were not out of the ordinary. However, suspension of training flights indicated otherwise. Williams said the Air Force gave its pilots in the gulf ``safety awareness'' briefings during the flight ban in order ``to review what they need to do to fly more safely.'' Aircraft on operational missions were not grounded, said Col. Miguel Monteverde, another Pentagon spokesman. Those included reconnaissance aircraft, refueling tanker planes and F-15 jets patrolling areas near the Kuwait or Iraqi borders. He said pilots of those planes received special safety briefings but their flight schedules were not changed. ``So there was no degradation of our ability to defend ourselves,'' Monteverde said. Desert Shield, the largest U.S. military buildup since the Vietnam War, involves an estimated 700 Air Force combat and support aircraft. Williams said information about the number of flight hours in Desert Shield is classified and will not be disclosed. As a result, he said, he could not compare the accident rate with that of previous deployments. The toll for accidental deaths since Operation Desert Shield began rose to 31 on Wednesday when an Air Force F-111 fighter-bomber crashed on a training mission in Saudi Arabia, killing both crew members. On Monday, two pilots were killed in the crash of an Air Force F-4 Phantom reconnaissance jet in Saudi Arabia, and just hours earlier two Marine Corps UH-1 Huey helicopters, each carrying four crew members, crashed over the Arabian Sea, killing all eight men. Williams said the Air Force was the only service that has taken special measures to review safety in the gulf since this week's accidents. ``They're concerned about the accidents, they're concerned about the number of accidents that happened so quickly over a short period of time,'' he told reporters. He said, however, that the military's safety record in Desert Shield remained good. ``Given the amount of flying that has to be done, given the extraordinary circumstances and given the higher than ordinary operating tempo in the area, I think our service people are doing very well, but any accident is cause for concern,'' he said. Five U.S. aircraft have been involved in fatal crashes in the gulf area since the start of Desert Shield two months ago: an F-111, an F-4 Phantom reconnaissance jet, an F-15E and two Marine Corps UH-1 Huey helicopters. Also, a C-5 transport plane crashed in West Germany while ferrying equipment to Saudi Arabia. Also, 20 other aircraft have been involved in non-fatal accidents in the gulf area, Williams said. Fifteen of those were helicopters.

u.s. air missions;u.s. aircraft accidents;regular training flight;operation desert shield;fatal crashes;u.s. air force war planes

AP901013-0046

Fundamentalists Or Iraqi Agents Blamed For Slaying Of Parliament Speaker

Egypt honored its slain parliament speaker and four security men today with a state funeral led by a grim-looking President Hosni Mubarak. The government said Iraqi agents or Egyptian Moslem fundamentalists were to blame for the assassination Friday of its second-highest official, Rifaat el-Mahgoub. He was the first Egyptian politician assassinated since Islamic extremists shot President Anwar Sadat at a military parade nine years ago. Four assassins riding two motorbikes killed el-Mahgoub in a car driving by a luxury hotel by the Nile. The death toll from the attack rose to six today with the death of the speaker's chauffeur. Doctors in a Cairo hospital said the driver suffered bullet wounds in the stomach, back and arm. Hassan Abu-Basha, a former police minister, told the Cairo newspaper Al-Ahram he believed el-Mahgoub's slaying was the work of Iraqi agents. He said the perpetrators possibly belonged to the Palestinian extremist faction led by Abu Nidal. The funeral was at Nasr City, the same suburban neighborhood where Sadat's funeral took place. Hundreds of red-bereted military police and white-uniformed policemen sealed off all streets leading to the mosque where the religious service was held. They also lined the funeral procession route, as did hundreds of plainclothes security men. Mubarak, wearing a black suit and sunglasses, and British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, on a two-day official visit, were in the front row of about 1,000 mourners. They included relatives of the dead, government officials and foreign diplomats. Symbolic units from the military services spearheaded the procession, followed by a military band and two dozen wreath-bearers. Behind them were four military jeeps carrying coffins of the four security men, draped in the red, white and black Egyptian flag. A caisson bearing el-Mahgoub's coffin followed, also wrapped in the flag. It was drawn by three pairs of black horses. Military officers rode the three horses on the right. Immediately behind came two officers carrying el-Mahgoub's decorations laid on black-velvet cushions. The procession began from the mosque and stopped about 1,500 feet away. Relatives of the dead then lined up to accept condolences from Mubarak and other mourners. Interior Minister Abdel-Halim Moussa had warned days earlier of such an attack. He said authorities arrested alleged saboteurs who were entering the country with orders from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to assassinate Egyptian officials. Saddam has called Egypt a traitor to the Arab cause for sending its troops to back the U.S. military buildup in the gulf in response to the Aug. 2 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram, quoting police sources, reported Monday that local Moslem extremists were collaborating with Palestinian terrorists sent to the country by Iraq on sabotage missions. It said the extremists had provided weapons and explosives to five Palestinians from Abu Nidal's faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Recent reports said Abu Nidal's Fatah-Revolutionary Council recently moved its headquarters from Libya to Iraq. Police ordered a state of alert at airports to keep the assailants from fleeing and set up security checkpoints along Cairo bridges. El-Mahgoub's authority extended solely over the 458-seat Parliament, which he had headed since 1984. He was not active in the gulf crisis, Al-Ahram noted in a front-page editorial today. ``In fact he was assassinated because he was a prominent Egyptian politician. The assasins wanted to tell their terrorist bosses that they pierced the stability of Egypt,'' the newspaper said. In Washington, White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said: ``We are shocked by the assassination of the Egyptian speaker. ``We certainly deplore these kinds of terrorist activities and assassination is the most vile kind of terrorism. We don't have any indication at this time who was responsible or what their purposes were,'' he said.

islamic extremists;egyptian politician;egyptian moslem fundamentalists;iraqi agents;assassination;funeral;rifaat el-mahgoub;death toll;terrorist activities

AP901029-0035

Accidental Shooting Another Blow to Police Force

The accidental shooting death of a young stockbroker by an officer looking for a burglar is one more strike against a police force already struggling with allegations of brutality and racism. Terry D. Barnes, 24, was shot between the eyes in his apartment. Police said an officer investigating a report of a prowler had entered the apartment at 3:30 a.m. and fired after Barnes got out of bed to see what was wrong. It was the seventh shooting death involving Kansas City police officers this year. In the previous three years, five people were shot and killed. ``I just hope that this case will draw the line on where the police can kill an innocent man. Where do you draw the line?'' said roommate Andy Brez, 23, who was sleeping in another bedroom when police entered on Saturday. Barnes was white, as is the officer who shot him; however, other recent incidents of alleged excessive force involved black citizens. Police said they were told the prowler might have run to the floor on which Barnes lived. Two police officers, whose names were not disclosed, noticed the door to his apartment was not tightly shut and entered, authorities said. An officer encountered Barnes, unarmed, in a T-shirt and boxer shorts, standing in his bedroom, police spokesman Sgt. Greg Mills said. Barnes made ``a kind of lunging motion,'' and the officer fired from about 5 to 8 feet, Mills said. Friends of Barnes questioned whether his apartment door was ajar and whether he would have lunged at the officer. ``We are defending the officers being in that apartment,'' Mills said. ``As for the shooting itself, we will make no assessment of the propriety of that until after the investigation.'' The department has suffered a string of complaints about excessive force and racism since the spring. Police Chief Steven Bishop said before the latest slaying that the department's standing has fallen in the community, and a ``behavior modification'' program is being developed for offending officers. ``We're part of the problem out there on the street, and we've got to get back to good, basic police work,'' Bishop said after Barnes' death. In June, several white officers bloodied a Nigerian-born Roman Catholic priest with nightsticks as he lay on the ground. The Rev. Joseph Okoye said officers who stopped him on suspicion of drunken driving mistook his foreign accent for drunken speech. In May, another black clergyman was hit on the head with a shotgun by a white officer while lying on the ground. Police said a youth in the car of the Rev. William Fountaine matched the description of an armed robber. Neither clergyman nor the passenger in Fountaine's car was charged. Both clergymen alleged racism; Bishop suspended some of the officers involved in the May incident. In another case, three undercover officers were suspended for a shooting this spring that left a young black man crippled. The officers and the victim accused each other of starting the fight that led to the shooting. Also this year, four oficers riddled a man brandishing a barbecue fork with 15 bullets, killing him. And an officer killed a man who was spraying him with a fire extinguisher. No officer involved in the two killings was charged. The officer who shot Barnes was a two-year veteran of the force. He was placed on paid leave pending a police investigation and that of a grand jury. ``This is a tragic chain of events that is regrettable for Mr. Barnes' family and for this officer,'' Bishop said. ``The officers were reacting appropriately to a number of circumstances which together led them to that apartment.'' ``Terry was a good man. He would have been a good husband and a good father,'' said Barnes' fiancee, Alison Brady. They had planned to marry in June.

accidental shooting death;black citizens;brutality;terry barnes;excessive force;police force;racism

AP901030-0216

British, French Link Up Under Channel Tunnel

Britain and France were linked beneath the English Channel on Tuesday when workers used a two-inch probe to connect two halves of a 31-mile undersea rail tunnel, officials reported. Management sources at TransManche Link, the construction consortium building the ``Chunnel'' - the Channel Tunnel - confirmed the historic linkup occurred about 8:25 p.m. when British workers sent the probe through to French colleagues. ``It is an example of what Europe is about,'' British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher said in London. ``This is Europe in practice.'' The linkup fulfills a dream by Napoleon in 1802, who thought he could defeat the English by connecting Britain to Europe with a land passage. The Chunnel is scheduled for completion in June 1993. ``This is a hugely historic moment because it means, in effect, that Britain is no longer an island,'' said a construction union official. Eight workers suffered injuries, two seriously, about 90 minutes later when a tractor towing supplies rolled over on them in a service gallery, authorities in nearby Sangatte reported. The basic goal of the Channel Tunnel project is to enable passengers to travel between London and Paris in about three hours. That time is comparable to flying, if transport to and from airports is included, and is half the time of a car-ferry journey. The conservative Daily Express newspaper noted in its Wednesday editions that Britons would theoretically be able to walk to France for the first time since the last Ice Age. The cost of the project has soared from an initial estimate of $9.4 billion to $16.7 billion, including an extra $1.97 billion for unforeseen cost overruns. The threading of the probes through 100 yards of chalk under the English Channel marks a major turning point in three years of drilling on the world's costliest tunnel. The meeting point was just over 13{ miles southeast of Shakespeare Cliff, the British terminus near the town of Dover, and 10 miles northwest of the French town of Sangatte, near Calais. The tunnel starts a few miles inland on each side, accounting for its total length of 31 miles. Geological conditions account for the different progress on each side. French workers reaching the tiny hole telephoned their British counterparts and relayed the news to TransManche officials. The first champagne corks popped minutes later. ``It's an exciting moment. It's the first time we have air passing between the two tunnels,'' said Gordon Crighton, tunnel engineering manager. ``We see it as just another exercise, but I'm sure there will be a lot of parties going on,'' he said. Preliminary tests indicated the two halves were 20 inches out of alignment. Another day will be needed to be certain, technicians said, but they called the line-up ``exceptional,'' considering the massive boring machines are drilling holes about three stories high. The workers will now bore out a one-yard hole to permit passage from one half to the other. They are expected to greet each other with handshakes in a few weeks. Two Japanese-designed boring machines are drilling the tunnel. After it is finished, one will be dismantled and hauled out in pieces. The other will drill its own grave and be buried in cement because French officials said it will be too costly to extricate it. A work slowdown since last week by militant tunnelers demanding more pay on the French side appeared likely Monday to stall the linkup until the weekend or beyond. But TransManche officials said earlier Tuesday that the meeting in the middle would occur on schedule. The Chunnel actually consists of three tunnels - two for railway trains and a smaller maintenance tunnel between them. Taking into account all the tunnels, 80 percent of the drilling has been completed by giant, Japanese-built boring machines working from Calais and Folkstone, England. Tuesday's linkup in the service tunnel is described by the French as a ``mouse ole'' - a bore only two inches in diameter. President Francois Mitterrand and Mrs. Thatcher are expected to meet each other in the tunnel Jan. 26, after the digging for much of the tunnel is finished. The first coupling of the two rail tunnels is scheduled for mid-1991. Eurotunnel PLC, the world's largest engineering project, announced Oct. 8 that it had reached an agreement with its banks on $3.5 billion in new credit. More than 200 banks are involved in the financing. The Chunnel's scheduled debut in mid-1993 would come six months after the 12-nation European Community formally drops remaining trade barriers, becoming a unified marketplace of 320 million consumers. Officials estimate the tunnel may carry 28 million passengers in the first year of operation, although Eurotunnel doesn't expect a profit until the end of the century. A study released last Friday in Paris by transportation experts said the tunnel's completion will aggravate traffic congestion in a wide area of continental Europe. Some Britons have worries of a different sort, fearing an influx of ills from the continent ranging from terrorism to rabid animals. Since construction began in late 1987, there have been seven deaths on the British side and two on the French. Five British firms were ordered last Wednesday to stand trial on charges related to the death of a construction worker last year. The undersea bond between the two hereditary enemies was envisioned nearly 200 years ago by a French engineer called Albert Mathieu. Napoleon wanted to build it, but Britain warned him off. Tunneling actually started in subsequent efforts in 1882 and 1974, but were abandoned.

chunnel;traffic congestion;continental europe;channel tunnel project;english channel;31-mile undersea rail tunnel;france;britain;historic linkup;transmanche link;cost overruns

AP901031-0024

A First: `Chunnel' Links England to Continent

Workmen tunneling under the English Channel have created the first land link between Britain and the Continent, connecting 31 miles of tunnel in a prodigious feat of engineering and finance. TransManche Link, the construction consortium building the ``Chunnel'' said the historic linkup occurred at 8:25 p.m. Tuesday when British workers sent a probe 2 inches in diameter through to their French colleagues. Linking England and France, the tunnel symbolizes the growing unification of Europe. It also fulfills a dream of Napoleon, who wanted to send his armies through the tunnel to conquer Britain. Eurotunnel PLC, the Anglo-French consortium overseeing the world's largest engineering project, plans for high-speed trains to pass through the Channel Tunnel in June 1993. Eventually a train trip from Paris to London should take three hours. Despite her countrymen's fears of losing their ancient moat against Europe, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher described the breakthrough as ``a very exciting moment.'' ``It is an example of what Europe is about,'' she said in London. ``This is Europe in practice.'' In London, the conservative Daily Express newspaper noted today that Britons will be able to walk to France for the first time since the Ice Age. ``This is a hugely historic moment because it means, in effect, that Britain is no longer an island,'' a construction union official in Calais said. Threading a spinning probe the width of a garden hose through 100 yards of chalk under the Channel bears the first tangible fruit in three years of drilling. Champagne corks popped and workers danced jigs after French drillers phoned news of the probe's arrival to their British counterparts. Initial tests indicated the two halves were 20 inches out of alignment. Technicians will be more certain Wednesday, but they called the rough line-up ``exceptional.'' The workers will now bore out a one-yard hole. Tunnelers are expected to walk through and greet each other with handshakes in a few weeks. The tunneling machine on the French side will then guide itself by laser toward the British machine, ensuring perfect alignment. Thatcher and French President Francois Mitterrand will meet mid-tunnel on Jan. 26. The linkup came on the maintenance tunnel, the smallest of three tunnels being dug. The other two will handle rail traffic - freight and special piggy-back trains that will carry passengers and cars. About 80 percent of all the drilling is now complete. Eight workers suffered injures, two seriously, about 90 minutes after Tuesday's linkup when a tractor rolled over on them in a service gallery, authorities in nearby Sangatte reported. Since the tunnel construction began in 1987 there have been seven accidental deaths on the British side and two on the French side. The tunnel's cost has soared from an initial estimate of $9.4 billion to $16.7 billion, including an extra $1.97 billion in case of unforeseen cost overruns. The digging is accomplished by gargantuan boring machines that bring to mind images from Japanese monster movies. Each resembles a gnawing worm, some three-stories high, with a spinning drill of hundreds of blades. Mechanical legs slap together the concrete tunnel lining in the wake of the advancing drill head. Whhen its work is done, the drilling machine on the French side will be hauled out in pieces. The one on the British side will dig a side passage, and be buried in cement. Officials say it is too costly to extricate the machine. The tunnels were joined 13{ miles southeast of Folkestone, England, the British terminus near Dover, and 10 miles northwest of Sangatte, near Calais. The tunnel starts a few miles inland on each side, accounting for its total length of 31 miles. Militant workers on the French side are striking for more pay and began a work slowdown Thursday, threatening to stall the link-up. But it came off on schedule. Eurotunnel PLC announced Oct. 8 that it had reached an agreement with its banks on $3.5 billion in new credit. More than 200 banks are involved in financing the world's costliest tunnel. The three-hour Paris-to-London trip would be comparable to flying, if transport to and from airports is included, and is half the time of the present car-ferry journey. Officials estimate the tunnel trains may carry 28 million passengers in the first year of operation. Eurotunnel doesn't expect a profit until the end of the century. France hopes the project will revitalize depressed northern regions. But many Britons fear an influx of continental ills ranging from terrorists to rabid animals. Britain warned Napoleon not to try to build the tunnel; digging was started subsequently in 1882 and 1974, but both efforts failed.

chunnel;english channel;france;channel tunnel;britain;historic linkup;tunnel trains;transmanche link;tunnel construction;first land link;growing unification;cost overruns;continental ills

AP901130-0060

Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Lot of Sound, Not Much Fury

The 1990 Atlantic hurricane season had more storms than usual and some forecasters predict that's just a hint of more frequent and more forceful hurricanes in the coming years. But this year's batch did not include the devastating storms of years past and at least one forecaster thinks 1991 will be a calmer year. The season ends today. Dr. William Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, thinks a dry spell in West Africa during the past two decades explained the reduction of storms along the eastern seaboard in the last 20 years. In 1988 and 1989, there was near normal rainfall in the Sahel, the semi-arid land on the southern fringe of the Sahara Desert. Some meteorological experts think the rainfall signaled the end of a 20-year drought - and may have spawned Gilbert in 1988 and Hugo in 1989. Gray on Thursday predicted a below-average hurricane season in 1991. He based his forecast on several factors, including an anticipated below-average rainfall in the Sahel. But Gray and other forecasters agree that the general outlook for the 1990s and the early years of the next century is for more intense hurricanes than those of the last two decades. ``We've been through a real long period of hurricane inactivity in the '70s and '80s up until 1985, and I think we're coming out of that,'' said Bob Sheets, director of the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables. ``Perhaps the Gilberts and the Hugos were signaling that,'' he said, recalling Hurricane Gilbert that wracked the Caribbean and Hurricane Hugo that devastated South Carolina - two of the most destructive Atlantic hurricanes ever. Hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic every month except April, but are rare outside the hurricane season, June 1 to Nov. 30. In this year's season, there were 14 named storms, eight of them hurricanes. The average number of storms is nine, with about six becoming hurricanes. Usually only a couple of those storms strike the U.S. While many of the storms spun harmlessly through the Atlantic, several caused their share of destruction. The most deadly storm was Hurricane Diana, which swept into Mexico in early August, resulting in flash floods and mudslides that killed 96 people and caused extensive damage to roads, property and agriculture, the weather service reported. A weather disturbance becomes a tropical storm, and is given a name, if its sustained winds reach 39 mph. Storms become hurricanes if winds reach 74 mph.

below-average hurricane season;devastating storms;intense hurricanes;forecasters;forceful hurricanes;dr. william gray;atlantic hurricane season

AP901203-0166

At Least Four Earthquakes Occur; None Along New Madrid Fault

At least four moderate earthquakes rattled parts of the world, but there was nary a tremor Monday along the New Madrid Fault, where a scientist said a earthquake was likely to occur. ``This is just a normal day,'' said Waverly Person, chief of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center. ``We're not backing the prediction at all.'' Along the New Madrid Fault, some schools were canceled and residents purchased earthquake emergency kits and others left town, just in case climatologist Iben Browning was right. Browning said there was a 50-50 chance for a major earthquake early this week along the fault, which stretches from Marked Tree, Ark., northeast through New Marid, Mo., to Cairo, Ill. He believes tidal forces can trigger earthquakes, a theory most scientists reject. ``There's just no way to predict an earthquake precisely,'' said Person, who has been with the U.S. Geological Survey for more than 25 years. ``There are no two earthquakes alike.'' The center received more than 50 calls about the New Madrid forecast Monday morning and hundreds last week, said Person, who began doing interviews for radio and television stations just after midnight. As Person talked, 24 seismographs etched out activity recorded by monitoring equipment in different parts of the United States, ranging from Alaska to Tennessee. A needle jumped a few inches across the seismograph connected to monitoring equipment in Tonopah, Nev. Person scanned the chart and called to a colleague, ``It may be a nuclear test. That's where they conduct those tests.'' A few minutes later, the needle jumped again. ``That's not a test,'' he said. ``That's a quake.'' With a measured eye, he estimated the quake was magnitude 2.5 to 3.0 on the Richter scale. Quick calculations showed the quake was magnitude 3.5, centered about 30 miles southwest of Ely, Nev. Between midnight and evening, four moderate quakes were recorded at Golden. Three were in the South Pacific, a 5.9-magnitude shaker near New Caledonia, and quakes of 5.1 and 5.0 in the area of Tonga. The fourth was a 5.9-magnitude temblor in northern Colombia. A quake of that size can cause considerable damage in a populated area, but aren't considered serious in remote spots. About 800 quakes between magnitudes 5.0 and 5.9 are recorded each year, said USGS spokesman Don Finley in Washington. The Richter scale gauges the amount of energy released by an earthquake. A quake of magnitude 2 is about the smallest felt by humans. An earthquake of 3.5 on the Richter scale can cause slight damage in the local area, 4 moderate damage, 5 considerable damage, 6 severe damage. A 7 reading is a ``major'' earthquake, capable of widespread heavy damage; 8 is a ``great'' quake, capable of tremendous damage. The big San Francisco Bay area quake last year registered 7.1 on the Richter scale. In 1989, the earthquake center recorded 14,604 earthquakes, with a magnitude 1 or higher, Person said. An average of 30 a day are recorded. This fall, there have been two in the New Madrid Fault area, magnitude 4.6 on Sept. 26 and magnitude 3.5 on Nov. 9, which ``is not unusual,'' he said. Although earthquakes can be tracked historically, forecasting them is difficult, if not impossible, Person said. Some people watch precursor activity, but that doesn't always lead to an earthquake. Other quakes occur in a swarm over a period of time, he said. Over the years, he has heard countless earthquake predictions. One woman called daily, alerting Person that an earthquake was about to occur, based on the number of birds that crossed her windshield as she drove down the street. The job, he confesses, ``is never boring.''

earthquake center;moderate earthquakes;richter scale;u.s. geological survey;monitoring equipment;major earthquake;widespread heavy damage;countless earthquake predictions;earthquake emergency kits

AP901231-0012

Mexico Gets Ready Early For Total Solar Eclipse

Mexico, where sun worship has passed from ancient civilizations to modern beachgoers, is gearing up early for the day next year when the sun will be blotted out. President Carlos Salinas de Gortari has appointed a Cabinet-level commission to prepare for what astronomers bill as ``the slar eclipse of the century'' on July 11. Posters have been placed in Mexico City subways promoting the event, and resorts along the eclipse's path are scrambling to accommodate the expected rush of tourists. ``It's the most important eclipse in history,'' says Miguel Gil Guzman, secretary-general of the Mexican Astronomical Society. This one will cut a swath across one of the most populous regions of the globe, turning day to night for an estimated 50 million residents in 14 of Mexico's 31 states. The eclipse path reaches from Hawaii through Mexico to Brazil. The 165-mile-wide path will go dark for almost seven minutes, the maximum length for a total solar eclipse. On July 11, the moon will pass between the planet and the sun, abruptly swallowing midday's light, except for a weird glow on the horizon. People from British Columbia to Buenos Aires will experience at least a partial eclipse. Viewing conditions may be poor because of the Latin American rainy season. But the special government commission, Eclipse 1991, is banking on the clouds to roll in the country's financial favor. The commission bills the northwestern state of Baja California Sur as the best place to watch because the state has an average of 300 cloudless days a year. Baja California Sur alone plans to spend $26.5 million for public safety for eclipse enthusiasts but banks on raking in millions more from tourism. For three years, scientists and astronomy buffs have been staking out turf in Mexico. It will be the last chance to see a total solar eclipse this century. Most hotels along the eclipse route are full for July 11. Tourism officials are seeking private homes and campgrounds, schools and auditoriums to house the influx. Baja California Sur's tourist facilities can only handle 120,000 visitors, and 90 percent of that capacity is booked, tourism director Rodolfo Palacios says. The state says at least four ships will pressed into service as floating hotels. Some 13,500 amateur and professional astronomers from the United States, Japan, Soviet Union, China, Canada, England, France and Germany have confirmed reservations. Some tourists have been booked into one hotel even before it is completed. The Pacific coast region of Nayarit is bracing for about 1 million visitors, about double the population. Cuernavaca, 35 miles south of Mexico City, is hosting a geophysicists' congress during the week of the eclipse. At least one expedition plans to view the show from the 17,887-foot Popocapetl volcano, the country's second-highest peak. Others plan to see it from boats at sea. An eclipse is an astronomical coincidence. The moon is 400 times smaller than the sun, but because it is 400 times closer to the earth, the smaller body appears to cover the larger one. Rosy rays of light will shoot out around the moon's edges, forming what astronomers call a corona, or crown. Temperatures will drop at least 5{ degrees. The stars will come out; the planets Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter will shine. Streetlights will be triggered on. The National University is developing six half-hour documentaries on eclipses and 10 TV spots on the dangers of looking at the sun, astronomy professor Jesus Galindo says. Since September, the university newspaper has been publishing installments of a book called ``Eclipse'' that will be translated into Indian languages. The government plans to supervise the production of special lenses for viewing an eclipse.

mexico;total solar eclipse;partial eclipse;eclipse path;slar eclipse;tourists;moon

FBIS-41815

Concern Over Transmission of Spongiform Encephalopathy

Language: English Article Type:CSO [Article by Nigel Hawkes, Science Editor: "Zoo Antelope Catch Mad Cow Disease"] [Text] Scientists at London zoo have discovered that a strain of "mad cow disease" affecting a type of antelope can be transmitted much more easily than was thought. The finding uncovers a threat to breeding other species in captivity unless it can be shown that they are not equally vulnerable. The scientists say there is no evidence that similar transmission is occurring among cows. The zoo's small herd of kudu, spiral-horned antelopes closely related to cows, has been severely hit by a disease similar to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Of eight animals born in the herd since 1987, five have contracted the disease. Only one of the five could have eaten feed containing protein from sheep, believed to be the origin of the outbreak. The kudu is not the only zoo species to suffer the disease since it appeared in cows. It has also been found in domestic cats and their larger relations, the cheetah and the puma, in eland and nyala, and in the gemsbok and the Arabian oryx. In the United States, mink have been affected by it. The infective agent and its mode of transmission are unknown, but the evidence from kudu suggests that some species may be more easily infected than others. Sheep are believed to catch the disease by contact with placentas in fields after births, but in the case of the kudu even this route seems unlikely. In THE VETERINARY RECORD, the scientists eliminate most routes of infection. Infected feed cannot account for four cases. Nor can at least three of the affected animals have caught the disease from their mothers, who did not suffer from it. It is possible but unlikely that the mothers were carriers that passed on the infection without having symptoms themselves. If this were so, it would have important implications for the disease in cows. It is more likely, the scientists believe, that an unidentified agent entered the herd in contaminated feed and was passed along, as with more mundane infections. Because of the danger to other animals, the kudu herd has been isolated. Another danger taken seriously by the zoo, a world centre for breeding rare and endangered species, is that animals bred in captivity could carry the infection when released into the wild. If they proved as vulnerable as the kudu, this could be disastrous. The scientists say that the next step must be to examine whether the agent causing the disease in kudu is the same as that in cows. If it is, the conclusion would be that the kudu were simply more susceptible to the disease. If, however, it turned out to be a different and more easily transmittable form, the case for isolating the kudu would be even stronger. TIMES NEWSPAPERS LIMITED, 1993

affected animals;mad cow disease;london zoo;similar transmission;kudu herd;endangered species

FBIS-45908

Spread, Concern Over Mad Cow Disease Reviewed

CSO [Article by Greg Neale, environment correspondent: "Creeping Cow Madness"] [Text] It is already a multi-million pound disaster for British agriculture and now it threatens to erupt into a major political row between European governments. It is bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) -- "mad cow" disease -- and few would be prepared to say exactly when and where it will end. Next week European Community health ministers will meet to discuss a German call for a ban on British beef imports to that country. Some German politicians say their country should risk breaking Single Market free trade rules because the potential health risks are so grave. Nonsense, say British government scientists. Meanwhile, the controversy in Britain is reaching new heights. Last week, the scientific journal Nature called for a start to be made on replacing the British cattle population with animals free from the infection -- which the magazine estimate would cost £30 billion. Next day, one of the farming industry's loudest voices, the magazine Farmers Weekly hit back at what it called "a diet of speculation, half-truths and downright lies" and denounced what it called "certain publicity-hungry scientists promoted by the media more interested in fiction than fact." Calling on the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) to do more to explain the disease, the magazine concluded: "The alternative is to exacerbate the current climate of fear and uncertainty..." The fear is not just that shared by farmers worried about their livelihood. Could it transfer itself from cows to humans? "Mad Cow" disease was probably first observed on a farm in Kent in 1985, when four animals were put down after they were observed drooling, staggering before collapsing. Scientists at the Central Veterinary Laboratory in Surrey found that the animals' brains had become holed and spongelike -- similar symptoms to the disease scrapie in sheep and the rare Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), in humans. MAFF scientists concluded that BSE had appeared in cattle given processed feed that included remains of diseased sheep. New rendering methods, reducing the temperature at which the feed was prepared, were enabling the infective agent to survive, they concluded. Acting on this advice, in July 1988, John MacGregor, then Agriculture Minister, introduced a ban on such ruminant protein being used in feed. Cattle confirmed as having BSE have been put down and incinerated, with the ashes being buried. In 1989 a further ban was introduced, on cattle offal sold for human consumption. That year it was officially predicted that 20,000 animals would be affected before the feed ban, together with the drying up of any supplies already on farms, had its effect. But the spread of BSE has confounded original expectations. The Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday that by the beginning of last week the total number of cattle diagnosed since November 1986 as having BSE had risen to 121,898 -- six times the original prediction. The ministry believes that the reason more cattle have died is that farmers or food renderers kept using infected feed after the ban. Last week, MAFF said that the numbers of confirmed BSE cases in the first two months of this year showed a 20 per cent drop over the same period in 1993 -- proof, the ministry says, that the epidemic is waning. Yet there is still controversy. Some 8,004 cattle have died from BSE despite being born after the feed ban was introduced. MAFF says 5,767 of these were born before the end of 1988, and were probably fed from remaining infected supplies. That theory has been assailed by critics of the ministry. Mark Purdey, a Somerset farmer and independent researcher, believes that the use of organophosphate pesticides, used from the 1980s as a sheep dip and to treat warble-fly infestation in cattle, could have damaged the animals' immune system, exposing them to the disease. Ministry scientists, originally dismissive, are now reassessing his theories. More recently, researchers have suggested that in some cattle, BSE has been "vertically" transmitted from cow to calf. Given a long incubation period, such a possibility could make the disease harder to eradicate. This month 19 cattle have died on farms where MAFF is conducting a seven-year experiment into the disease. It is a daunting possibility for the farming industry, which has responded angrily. "There is no evidence that this disturbing disease can be transferred from cow to calf," Farmers Weekly insisted last week. More cautiously, MAFF told The Sunday Telegraph: "We have never said we have ruled out the possibility of maternal transmission, but even if it occurs, our scientists do not believe it will do anything other than lengthen the time before the disease is eradicated." So how long will it be before the epidemic is ended? Richard North, a former environmental health officer turned consultant, and a contributor to The Sunday Telegraph, believes that MAFF's statistics are being skewed to produce more optimistic figures -- claims not surprisingly rejected by the ministry. Mr North said: "We have more than 8,000 cattle born after the feed ban that have subsequently contracted BSE. The claim that all of these are affected by illegally retained infected feed gets less credible by the hour." One question -- perhaps the most important -- remains. If the disease has jumped from sheep to cattle -- and cases have also been reported in kudu antelope at London Zoo -- could it affect humans? That prospect, discounted by most scientists -- including MAFF critics such as Mr Purdey -- is considered a possibility by Richard Lacey, a Leeds University microbiologist who has been studying cases of CJD, a disease with a long incubation period. Reviled by the farming industry and privately disparaged by MAFF, he nevertheless insists that there may be a threat. "I'd expect an increase in cases of CJD by the early years of the next century," he says. "The bottom line is we just don't know what risks we may be running."

disease scrapie;british agriculture;mad cow disease;infected feed;bse case;maternal transmission;diseased sheep;british beef imports

FBIS3-11919

Roundup of Reaction to Colosio Assassination

Article Type:BFN [Editorial Report] The following is a compilation of reactions to the assassination of Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta, presidential candidate for the Mexican Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI, on 23 March in Tijuana, Baja California. The Colombian Government and several presidential candidates today rejected the assassination of PRI presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio. It has been disclosed that President Cesar Gaviria spoke with his Mexican counterpart Salinas de Gortari by telephone to express his condolences and to support the Mexican Government and people. Dissident liberal candidate Enrique Parejo said the assassination proves once again the serious threat politicians face when they appear at public rallies. Liberal Party candidate Ernesto Samper, who met with Colosio a few weeks ago, regretted the assassination and said that such violence is the result of "savage capitalism." Conservative Party candidate Andres Pastrana also regretted Colosio's death. (Hamburg DPA in Spanish 1636 GMT 24 Mar 94) Lorenzo Menendez, an expert in Mexican affairs at the Cuban Foreign Ministry, today told PRENSA LATINA that Colosio's assassination caused shock on the island. He extended his sympathy to the Mexican Government and people and to the Colosio family as well. Such an objectionable action fills us with indignation, Menendez said. The news media widely covered the tragic event. (Havana PRENSA LATINA 1813 GMT 24 Mar 94) The Nationalist Republican Alliance, Arena, the ruling party in El Salvador, today released a communique condemning Colosio's assassination and expressing solidarity with Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari. Arena repudiated the "cowardly assassination perpetrated by antidemocratic forces." Meanwhile, Ruben Zamora, presidential candidate of the left-wing Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, National Revolutionary Movement, and Democratic Convergence coalition, at a news conference expressed condolences to the Colosio family and the Mexican Government and people. (Panama City ACAN in Spanish 1706 GMT 24 Mar 94) Venezuelan Foreign Minister Miguel Burelli Rivas today deplored Colosio's assassination and disclosed that he had officially contacted his Mexican counterpart to express sadness over the incident. Colosio's assassination was widely covered by Venezuelan news media today. (Hamburg DPA in Spanish 1639 GMT 24 Mar 94)

pri;colombian government;mexican president carlos salinas;antidemocratic forces;presidential candidate luis donaldo colosio;sympathy;assassination;mexican government;reactions

FBIS3-22942

Government, Shining Path Said Negotiating; Possible Agreement

Language: Spanish Article Type:BFN [Text] Lima, 13 Feb (AFP) -- The "Sunday Review" television program said that according to a "very reliable source," the end of the "popular war," the surrender of weapons, and a general amnesty, would be the main points of a peace agreement "without victors or vanquished," between the Shining Path and the Peruvian Government. The administration of President Alberto Fujimori has admitted that talks, led by Abimael Guzman who has been serving a life sentence since October 1992, are being held between government representatives and Shining Path leaders in prison. No details, however, have been issued on discussions or possible agreements. According to the "Sunday Review" program, directed by journalist Nicolas Lucar on the Lima America Channel 4 Television Network, the 10-point agreement says its main aspect is to "stop the popular war with its four forms of fighting: terrorism, selective murders, sabotage, and armed agitation and propaganda." Another point refers to "dismantling the People's Guerrilla Army with their surrender and the destruction of their weapons." It also includes the self-dismantling of the people's committees and the Shining Path's support base throughout the country. A general amnesty has been mentioned and a process whereby, "little by little and in accordance with the circumstances, prisoners of war and political prisoners will be released and their sentences reduced." Together with the "improvement of relations between both parties," it is also stressed that the agreement would be without "conquerors or vanquished," and would ease the way for the return of those Shining Path members living abroad "in order to recover the country's social and normal life." The agreement would entail a "cessation of hostilities toward relatives of Shining Path members" and "the movement's archives, library, museum, and other symbols would also be returned." One of the points in the agreement mentions the need for "economic support and investments in the areas devastated by the war." So far, government authorities have not denied or rejected the accuracy of this agreement between the government and Shining Path.

shining path members;peruvian government;general amnesty;10-point agreement;popular war;peace agreement;guerrilla army;economic support

FBIS3-23360

Link Between Abu-Nidal, Jordanian Extremists

Language: Arabic Article Type:BFN [Rafiq al-Zayn report from Beirut] [Text] In less than one month, Lebanese security authorities in coordination with Jordanian authorities have succeeded in unraveling the mystery of the assassination of Jordanian diplomat Na'ib al- Ma'ayitah in Beirut on 29 January. It seems that the Abu-Nidal group is not the only party responsible for the operation. The file AL-WATAN AL-'ARABI has obtained on the investigation confirms close cooperation and coordination between Fatah-the Revolutionary Council [FRC] and Jordanian fundamentalist extremist groups sponsored by Iran. In this investigative report AL-WATAN AL-'ARABI reveals the details of this network, the secret meetings it held in Tehran, Amsterdam, and Beirut, the names of those who planned and carried out the assassination, the centers where they were trained, their affiliations, and how this leads to exposing dangerous secrets which made the Abu-Nidal group send threat letters to those in charge of the investigation. A few days ago, Palestinian Ahmad Mahmud 'Abd-al-Karim, a prominent FRC official, arrived in Lebanon from Finland on the special mission of following up the investigations the Lebanese authorities are conducting with the Palestinians from the Abu-Nidal group who are accused of the assassination of Jordanian First Secretary Na'ib al-Ma'ayitah in Beirut on 29 January. Reports confirm that shortly after arriving in Beirut, Ahmad 'Abd-al-Karim left for the FRC's al-Rawdah camps in Western al-Biqa' from where he followed the investigation through reports sent to him by people who secretly work for the FRC and who provided him with information in exchange for generous sums of money. Reports say that some officials in the Lebanese security organs have links with the Abu-Nidal group. At the same time, AL-WATAN AL-'ARABI has learned that the Abu- Nidal group recently sent threat letters to Lebanese officials who are currently investigating its members who are involved in the al- Ma'ayitah assassination. These are: Yusuf Sha'ban, Bassam Muhammad 'Attiyah, and Yusuf 'Udwani, codenamed Salim Mahyub. Lebanese investigator, Judge Sa'id Mirza ordered the arrest of the three Palestinians and listened to the deposition of three witnesses, including 'Afaf Yusuf [not further identified] who reiterated her previous deposition. Reports mention that the first steps in the investigation have revealed that the FRC planned and carried out the assassination in coordination with the Jordanian fundamentalist Islamic Mobilization Youth Organization [IMYO] which is financed by Iran. The IMYO was exposed in Jordan by Jordanian authorities on 17 August 1992 when the Jordanian security bodies confiscated weapons and ammunition the organization had been hiding in Jordan to be used to destablize the regime and security in the country. During the trials, this organization tried to claim that the weapons found by the authorities were temporarily hidden in Jordan but were to be smuggled into the occupied territories and given to the Palestinian strugglers there to enhance their ability to confront the Zionist forces and carry out military operations against them. The IMYO also claimed that the weapons that were found were not brought in from any neighboring country but were purchased on the local market. At the time, two members of Parliament were arrested; Ya'qub Qirrish anbd Layth Shubaylat on chrages of heading the organization. The security information the investigators have collected on the al-Ma'ayitah assassination shows that as soon as the IMYO was exposed, Jordanian fundamentalist elements belonging to various organizations such as Muhammad's Army, the Islamic Liberation Army, and the IMYO and others moved to neighboring Arab countries. Most of the factions left for Lebanon where they found the suitable atmosphere and the appropriate place to carry out their activities in cooperation with Hizballah. The information gathered also shows that some Jordanian fundamentalist elements moved to Iran where they received training courses in the Al-Quds camp and the Kermandi [name as transliterated] camp, and courses in intelligence work in the Darjah [name as transliterated] institute. Iran has sponsored these organizations to establish Islamic organizations and cells in the countries that have common borders with Israel so they can take power in these countries and turn them into Islamic regimes. Since that time, Iran exploited the elements from these fundamentalist organizations and established the Jordan office in the Liberation Movement's office. Ayatollah Shakhiry [name as transliterated], the official in charge of the Jordan section in the Iranian intelligence organ, took charge of this office. Confirmed information indicates that in early 1994, IMYO elements held an important meeting in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, with officials from the FRC. The official in charge of the Jordanian elements was Shakir Abu-Jami', a Jordanian national wanted by authorities in his country and one of the most prominent members of the Jordanian fundamentalist Muhammad Army Organization. Abu-Jami' now lives in Sa'dah, Yemen, which is home to camps for Afghan and Arab fundamentalists. The information adds that the IMYO made several decisions to attack Jordanian interests and institutions and assassinate Jordanian diplomats in a move to pressure the Jordanian regime. The information says that the scheme was designed some two years ago and the Muslim Brotherhood Movement in Jordan refused to get involved in it because of the danger and because the Brotherhood Movement does not agree with the proposals of other fundamentalist organizations. Iran managed to recruit FRC members to work in the Jordanian fundamentalist extremist organizations by taking advantage of the hostility the Abu-Nidal group has harbored against Jordan and its regime and king ever since the group was expelled from the country. The information confirms that Abu-Nidal group's leadership agreed to execute the mission for the aforesaid reasons, because of its commitment to the policy of extremism and rejection that aims at torpedoing the [peace] process, and because of its ties to Iran within the framework of international terrorism. Detailing this cooperation that lead to al-Ma'ayitah's assassination, the security sources note that the al-Ramlah al- Bayda' area in Beirut contained a secret headquarters for Walid Khalid, the FRC official spokesman who was assassinated in the Lebanese capital on 30 July 1992. These meetings were conducted in the presence of an FRC official called Amjad 'Ata, a Lebanese member of Abu-Nidal group named Tha'ir, and a Jordanian IMYO official from the Idkaydik family. The plan to assassinate al-Ma'ayitah was drafted during these meetings. But why did the Abu-Nidal group and the IMYO choose to assassinate Na'ib al-Ma'ayitah and not any other Jordanian official in the Beirut embassy. To carry out the assassination, an intensive training course was conducted for the Palestinians Bassam 'Atiyah and Yusuf 'Adwani in a secret center run by Abu-Nidal group in Buq'atah in Lebanon's al- Shuf area under the supervision of a Palestinian expert in assassinations called A. al-'Umayri [not further identified]. Al- 'Umayri was implicated in the assassination of the FRC official Bahij Abu-al-Hana in July 1992 in Lebanon's al-Biqa' area, after he accused him of contacting the 'Arafat-led Fatah movement. Confirmed security information says a Jordanian fundamentalist took part in the assassination of al-Ma'ayitah. He was charged with observation and backup when the assassination was carried out.

international terrorism;abu-nidal group;imyo;jordanian fundamentalist extremist groups;ayitah assassination;jordanian diplomat na'ib al- ma'ayitah;investigative report;lebanese security authorities;jordanian authorities

FBIS3-30788

Article Examines Relations With Slovenia

Language: Serbo-Croatian Article Type:BFN [Article by Verica Rudar: "What Is Ljubljana's Message for Belgrade?"] [Text] In the view of Yugoslav diplomats, the normalization of relations between Slovenia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will certainly be a strenuous and long-term project. Although the establishment of communications between Ljubljana and Belgrade would be very important for the situation in the former Yugoslavia in general, the chances that this could happen soon are minimal. A signal that relations between Yugoslavia and Slovenia might be reconsidered came this time from the Slovene capital. According to information published in the Yugoslav newspapers, the Slovene Government could be addressing this issue soon. The establishing of relations between the two states, the exchange of diplomatic representatives, and the abolition of the visa requirement for Yugoslav citizens are some of the topics to be considered. This information has not been denied and, apart from that, it is the logical conclusion to a series of statements issued by Slovene politicians, which pointed to a change in relations toward Belgrade. The announcement about the normalization of relations were also supported by information that an official Slovene delegation had arrived in Belgrade for this purpose, but it was stated that the details cannot yet be published since the matter is very delicate. The FRY Ministry of Foreign Affairs is denying that any official Slovene delegation came to Belgrade. It is stated that this is rather a visit of businessmen, since these contacts have not been interrupted. It is assumed in the Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Slovene businessmen might even be checking the atmosphere for possible political contacts, but there have been no official statements about it. Commercial contacts The signals from the Slovene side are being received in Yugoslavia with reservations. One could even say with distrust. Yugoslav diplomats point out that Yugoslavia has not been officially recognized by Slovenia. It is also true that Slovenia does not accept Yugoslavia on the international scene. Yugoslav sources claim that Slovenia is becoming increasingly isolated because of its extreme policy toward Yugoslavia, so that this might be one of the reasons why it has decided to "soften" its attitudes toward Yugoslavia. Official Belgrade has not forgotten "the extremist, anti-Serbian statements issued by Milan Kucan in Albania" or the moves made by Slovene statesmen who "instead of soothing the passions, stirred them up, always to Serbia's disadvantage." After reporters remarked that this relatively negative attitude might negate the unofficial signal from Ljubljana, a Yugoslav diplomat said: "We do not think that there is only one opinion in Slovenia about Yugoslavia. Slovenia is the former Yugoslav republic that made the greatest effort to harm the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. I am now speaking about the official Slovene attitude, not about the attitudes of all the politicians, and especially not about the attitudes of the Slovene people." Yugoslav diplomats have the impression that there are differences between Milan Kucan, the president of Slovenia, Lojze Peterle, the minister of foreign affairs, and Janez Drnovsek, the prime minister, the last being "sober, realistic and trustworthy." The first signs of a change in the Slovene attitude toward Yugoslavia were noticed during the visit of Karolos Papoulias, the Greek foreign minister, and Vaclav Havel, the Czech president, to Slovenia, in November 1993. Diplomatic Pirouettes At that time the press carried statements made by Milan Kucan and Lojze Peterle that unquestionably represented a shift in policy toward Belgrade. Kucan said that "Slovenia never had any conflict with Serbia," and Peterle that "Slovenia would be happy if the conditions for the removal of the sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro were fulfilled." At the beginning of December 1993, Mr. Peterle, the Slovene minister of foreign affairs, made that attitude concrete in a letter to Warren Christopher, the U.S. secretary of state, in which he wrote: "A possible removal of the sanctions against Yugoslavia is being fully considered since the aims for which they were introduced have not been achieved.... The European Union initiative makes us hope that the situation in the Balkans can be solved." In the view of Slovene political commentators, the softening of the Slovene attitude toward the FRY is a part of the diplomatic tactics the aim of which is to adapt Slovene policy to the policy of the European Union, with which Slovenia is awaiting negotiations about associate membership. Belgrade diplomats agree with this assessment and claim that the first announcement of possible contacts between Yugoslavia and Slovenia were made by arrangement with Germany and Austria. In the focus of Serbian attention now are relations with Croatia, and as far as Slovenia is concerned, the official proposal for the normalization of relations has to be specified first. Single statements and "diplomatic pirouettes" are not enough to overcome the present differences, including the Slovene attitude toward Kosovo, the interruption of economic relations, the way Slovene independence was achieved by force, and diplomatic duels on the international scene. [Box, p 7] Jovanovic: "Slovenia Must Excuse Itself" "In order to enter the process of normalization of relations with Slovenia, certain conditions must be fulfilled first," Vladislav Jovanovic, FRY minister of foreign affairs, said in a statement for POLITIKA, and added: "First it is necessary for Slovenia to excuse itself for the rude and impertinent move it made a year ago in refusing the Yugoslav offer of recognizing Slovenia. It is further necessary that the anti-Serbian campaign that Slovenia has been spreading all over the world is ended and that it acknowledges that those who remained in Yugoslavia have the right to self- determination. Apart from that, Slovenia must stop challenging the continuity of Yugoslavia as a state. Slovenia made a mistake by insisting that the FRY be excluded from all international forums. In addition, Slovenia supports the lifting of the arms embargo on the Bosnia- Herzegovina Muslims. There are many situations that prove that Slovenia has a hostile attitude toward Yugoslavia. We are not bothered that Slovenia is an independent state. On the contrary, while we lived together, we had excellent relations. That is why our surprise was great when the turnaround occurred. Yugoslavia is interested in good relations with all of its neighbors -- old and new alike. Slovenia is no exception. We cannot account for the hostility that they have shown toward Yugoslavia and toward the people who are living in this region now. Official Slovenia should find ways and means to end this hostility. We are, of course, interested in normal relations between Slovenia and Yugoslavia, but some prerequisites have to be fulfilled," Jovanovic concluded his statement.

slovene politicians;slovene government;yugoslav diplomats;slovene independence;federal republic;normalization;official belgrade;slovene attitude;possible political contacts;anti-serbian campaign;official slovene delegation

FBIS3-41

Shining Path Document Raises New Doubts over Call for Peace

SUMMARY A lengthy statement attributed to the imprisoned Shining Path leadership, published recently in a leading opposition newspaper, provides what appears to be a strategic rationale for the peace proposal made by the insurgents last fall. While the newspaper has accepted the document as an authentic call for peace by the Shining Path, the paper has also stressed that the peace called for in the statement is nothing more than a temporary tactical retreat by the Shining Path leaders and is not, as President Alberto Fujimori has contended, an implicit admission of defeat. END SUMMARY Although La Republica, a prominent anti-Fujimori daily, provided little information on the origins of the "important and unusual" document that it published in a special 25 January supplement, it assured its readers that the lengthy ideological tract explaining the Shining Path's "struggle for a peace agreement" was a genuine Shining Path statement. The paper claimed that the "anonymous sources" who supplied the "secret" document provided "full authentication" and that "experts" consulted by the paper also "agreed" that the document was the handiwork of imprisoned Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman (La Republica, 26 January).(See Note 1) (Note 1) La Republica did not assert that the document was actually signed by Guzman. However, the paper did claim that the document was "approved" by imprisoned Shining Path Central Committee members Elena Iparraguirre Revoredo, Osman Morote Barrionuevo, Marta Huatay Ruiz, Maria Pantoja Sanchez and Rosa Angelica Salas de la Cruz (25 January). While the anti-Fujimori daily may have, at least in part, published the document to discredit President Fujimori, it contended that it was motivated by a desire to provide Peruvians with information on the peace proposal that had not been made available by the government. The paper declared that it was "clearly" its "duty" to publish the document "given the mantle of silence that the government has cast" over the peace negotiations (26 January). La Republica's publication of the Shining Path strategy statement follows by three months the October 1993 release by the Fujimori government of letters from Guzman calling for peace talks with the government (Radio Programs del Peru, 1 October 1993; Radio and TV, 4 October 1993; Global de Television, 10 October 1993; Panamericana Television, 30 October 1993). The Shining Path leadership's sudden willingness to pursue peace talks with the government, just as the 31 October national referendum vote was approaching, raised questions in the media about whether the letters really represented authoritative Shining Path policy [see box].(See Note 2) (Note 2) Among other objectives, the narrowly successful referendum was designed to allow the president to serve a second successive term. Tactical Retreat for Guzman Implicitly rejecting Fujimori's claim that the Shining Path's call for a negotiated peace represented an admission of political defeat by the insurgents, La Republica concluded that the movement's leadership saw its call for peace as nothing more than a "temporary ceasefire" (25 January).(See Note 3) According to the daily's 26 January editorial, the Shining Path tract "makes it clear" that in the eyes of Abimael Guzman a "peace agreement" is simply an "armed truce" until after the year 2OOO, at which time the Shining Path "would resume its bloodbath." La Republica offered a possible explanation for the insurgents' tactical retreat in a 3O January interview with a "military and subversion analyst," who suggested-that a temporary withdrawal may offer Guzman an opportunity to preserve his authority as political leader despite the obvious limitations of beings imprisoned. Thee analyst concluded, therefore, that the insurgents' peace strategy represents "an ideological reaffirmation of Guzman's leadership" and "recognition that circumstances have changed." (Note 3) For example, in his presentation of the video recording of Guzman's first call for peace talks, Fujimori claimed that the Shining Path "political" leadership "has tacitly admitted that the Peruvian state has totally recovered the initiative in confronting the Shining Path" (Lima Radio and TV, 4 October 1993). Outlook La Republica's assessment of the Shining Path peace strategy document may quiet doubts about whether earlier letters calling for peace talks actually represented the views of top leaders. At the same time, however, by concluding that the published strategy statement is merely the Shining Path's declaration of temporary retreat, the daily has raised new questions about the credibility of Fujimori's claim that the call for peace represents a victory for the government. While such doubts are unlikely to seriously affect Fujimori's prospects for reelection next year, they may have further tarnished the image of the Peruvian president, already damaged by his narrow victory in the constitutional referendum last October. BOX Media Doubts over Earlier Shining Path Peace Letters -- Following the first Guzman letter calling for peace talks, announced by Fujimori at thee United Nations last October (Radio Programas del Peru, 1 October 1993), the conservative daily El Comercio reported that one seasoned political observer had warned" that Guzman's "reported" desire "to reach a peace agreement" does not mean there is reason "to claim a victory in the ongoing struggle against terrorism" since, according to the observer, the imprisoned insurgent leader may no longer control the Shining Path (2 October 1993). -- Following the second Guzman letter, which supplemented the call for peace talks with what seemed to be praise for Fujimori's economic and political program (Lima Global de Television, 1O October 1993), a commentator for the anti-Fujimori weekly Caretas wrote that the government was using a "broken" Guzman "in the campaign for the 'yes' vote" for the upcoming referendum, adding that "it is no coincidence that the letters . . . have come out during the 3O days prior" to the 31 October vote (14 October 1993). -- Responding similarly to the second Guzman letter, an editorial in La Republica wondered whether "government representatives," working to promote the "yes" vote on the referendum, had not "fallen into a trap" by thinking that Shining Path militants would take seriously such an "unctuous" call for peace talks as appeared in the letter (14 October 1993). -- Also in response to the second letter, Caretas on 14 October claimed that Fujimori was "using" Guzman "in the campaign" to win the 31 October referendum, noting that "with Guzman's letters" calling for peace talks, Fujimori's "promise" to wipe out the Shining Path by 1995 "may gain credibility." END BOX (AUTHOR: ROLLINS. QUESTIONS AND/OR COMMENTS, PLEASE CALL CHIEF ANALYST, EUROPE/LATIN AMERICA GROUP, (7O3) 733-612O.) ELAG/GILISON cka 17/0107z mar

government representatives;genuine shining path statement;anti-fujimori daily;peace proposal;imprisoned shining path leader abimael guzman;peace talks;political defeat;peace agreement;shining path peace strategy document

FBIS3-51875

Analyst: Shining Path Does Not Seek Reconciliation

Language: Spanish Article Type:BFN [Text] The Shining Path does not intend to seek reconciliation in the country, has disarmed itself neither militarily nor ideologically, and is instead trying to become a semi-legal party operating as a shock force against the opposition, subversion specialist Carlos Tapia has said. Tapia emphasized that the Shining Path faction led by Abimael Guzman Reinoso enjoys government favor, and among other things has been given assistance in organizing a second party congress. He said that imprisoned Shining Path members of the Guzman-led faction, such as Edmundo Cox Beuzeville, have been allowed to tour several prisons and to promote debates to support the proposal of so-called President Gonzalo. Tapia said: "The Shining Path was defeated, but it seems that after the beginning of negotiations, Abimael Guzman's leadership has been consolidated, tied to the commitment to organize a second party congress." "The documents of this second congress are being prepared to make the Shining Path stop engaging in armed actions. It is true that armed actions will end, but no one knows when. A new, stronger Shining Path could reemerge later for a second beginning, and as a weapon for fighting popular movements...," Tapia said. He added that peace negotiations between the Shining Path and the government are being held behind the country's back. Tapia believes the government is seeking to strengthen Abimael Guzman's leadership within Shining Path, countering the hardline faction led by Alberto Ramirez Durand, aka "Feliciano." Guzman's faction, Tapia said, represents the imprisoned Shining Path, while the one led by "Feliciano" is made up of the terrorists who are still free. "They are the ones who plant the bombs," he said. For his part, ex-leftist Senator Enrique Bernales has said that the Guzman group is trying to sell itself in order to eventually gain its freedom and later regroup. Tapia and Bernales made these statements during an interview on the "En Directo" program hosted by Alfredo Barnechea on Channel 9. The statements were made in the wake of a letter that Shining Path member Edmundo Cox addressed to Colonel Gabino Cajahuanca, the director of the Miguel Castro Castro prison, asking him for an audience "to inform you about what we have done." Cox was referring to the meetings he held with imprisoned Shining Path members in other prisons of the country to support the peace proposal by Guzman Reinoso, against the faction led by "Feliciano." Carlos Tapia, who is a careful observer of the subversion phenomenon, believes that the Shining Path does not seek national reconciliation, and that it maintains its ideological positions, such as "hatred of classes" and its stand against the "legal leftist sector, human rights organizations, popular unions, and nongovernmental organizations."

government favor;second party congress;semi-legal party;national reconciliation;imprisoned shining path members;shining path faction;peace proposal;peace negotiations

FBIS4-27602

No Evidence Found for Assassination Implication

BFN [Text] Seoul, May 30 (YONHAP) -- The joint military-prosecution investigation team, which probed the assassination of President Pak Chong-hui by then Central Intelligence Agency Director Kim Chae-kyu in October 1979, had found no evidence that then Army Chief of Staff and martial law commander, Gen. Chong Sung-hwa, was an accomplice in the slaying, a former team member testified recently. Paek Tong-nim, 57, who served as chief investigator of the Defense Security Command and concurrently as a key member of the joint investigating team, told the prosecution that no concrete evidence of Chong's involvement had been detected in the course of probing the assassin Kim, according to a spokesman for the Seoul District Public Prosecutor's Office. The joint investigation headquarters' announcement on Dec. 24, 1979, charging Chong with high treason was based not on any concrete evidence but on what he did after after Kim killed Pak on the night of Oct. 26, 1979, Paek was quoted as saying. The Seoul District Public Prosecutor's Office is looking into a criminal suit filed by the victims of the Dec. 12 "coup d'etat-like incident of the Army" against the perpetrators, including former Presidents Chon Tu-hwan and No Tae-u. Chong Sung-hwa is one of the victims. Paek dismissed as "not true" then Defense Minister No Chae-hyon's statement on Dec. 13, 1979, that martial Law Commander Chong was arrested for interrogation because new evidence was discovered in the course of investigating the assassination. The joint probe team felt the need to question Chong because when Kim killed Pak he was nearby and Prosecutor Chong Kyong-sik, a member of the joint team, called on the martial law commander at his office three times to question him about his actions on the assassination day, Paek was quoted as saying. Paek said that without evidence supporting his involvement in the assassination and without then President Choe Kyu-ha's permission, the joint military-prosecution investigation headquarters, led by then Defense Security Commander Maj. Gen. Chon Tu-hwan forcibly arrested Chong, seemingly because of the headquarters' "political motive," suggesting that the Dec. 12 incident was a mutiny by the "new military elite" to topple the government. The prosecution is considering summoning lawyer Won Kang-hui, who as military prosecutor indicted Chong Sung-hwa on charges of abetting high treason, for questioning. Won recently said there was no criminal evidence against Chong when he indicted him, adding the military prosecution then made "a different evaluation" of his actions on the assassination day. The prosecution is expected to shortly conclude its probe into whether Chong was an accomplice in the slaying of Pak Chong-hui in October 1979.

joint military-prosecution investigation team;president pak chong-hui;gen. chong sung-hwa;assassination day;assassination;criminal evidence;concrete evidence;assassin kim;military prosecution

FBIS4-4674

U.S. F-15 Fighter Crashes in Okinawa

BFN [Text] Tokyo -- An F-15 fighter of the U.S. Forces on Okinawa crashed near Kadena Air Base on 4 April. Commenting on the crash, Akira Takeshita, deputy director general of the Defense Facilities Administration Agency [DFAA], said, "Such a crash should not have occurred and it is very regrettable that the crash actually occurred." He also made it clear that shortly after the crash, the DFAA asked the command of the U.S. Forces in Japan [USFJ] to take thorough measures for safe management of the U.S. military bases on Okinawa and conduct a thorough investigation into the cause of the crash. The Kadena Air Base public affairs office gave a briefing on the crash and the DFAA released the briefing. The briefing said: An F-15 fighter taking off from Kadena Air Base on a routine training crashed near the air base at 0924 on 4 April. The crashed aircraft belonged to the 44th Fighter Squadron of the 18th Wing and the pilot safely ejected from the aircraft without injuries. A team will begin investigating the cause of the crash and details of the accident will be made public once the investigation is completed. The U.S. military aircraft crashed about 800 meters northeast of a Kadena Air Base runway and the crash site is within the air base's facilities. Mr. Takeshita said: "As for the safe management of the U.S. military bases on Okinawa, we have long asked the U.S. side for it. The DFAA immediately expressed regret to the command of the U.S. Forces in Yokota over the crash and the Naha DFAA Bureau expressed regret to the commander of the U.S. Forces on Okinawa. We will continue to ask them to work for the safe management of the U.S. military bases in Japan."

investigation;crash;u.s. military bases;okinawa;f-15 fighter;routine training;u.s. forces

FBIS4-56863

Shining Path To Continue `People's War'

BFN ["Exclusive" report by Angel Paez] [Text] The Shining Path Central Committee, comprised of leaders who have still not been arrested and alternate members elected by the Shining Path congress in 1988, held a meeting in February that was presided over by Oscar Ramirez Durand, a.k.a. "Comrade Feliciano." During the meeting, the Shining Path Central Committee decided to continue the "people's war" and to consider those members who uphold the peace accord with the government to be removed from the party "by their own free will." The document entitled "To Grow Strong on the Grounds of Partisan Unity and Conquer Power" [Reafirmarse en la Base de Unidad Partidaria y Construir la Conquesta del Power], which contains the conclusions of the Shining Path event, criticizes the leaders under arrest who try to convince the militants still operating to "uphold the great decision and definition," that is, Abimael Guzman's appeal for the Shining Path to end hostilities against the Peruvian state. A Shining Path pamphlet dated February, which is signed by the leaders under arrest, asserts that "the people's war has ended, and (therefore) to continue refusing to uphold (the "great decision and definition") means obstructing the Peace Accord and placing the life of President Gonzalo and other comrades at stake." But the Central Committee meeting in February disqualified the arrested leaders, stating that "it is an international communist rule that no leader can lead (the party or a war) from prison." According to the Maoist theory, a militant who is in prison loses his operational capacity when he is isolated from reality, and therefore is assigned another type of job. In March, the National Counterterrorism Directorate [Dincote] learned about the Shining Path meeting, according to an intelligence report datelined 31 March that states it was held in Razuhuillca, Huanta Province, Ayacucho. As a result, Peruvian Air Force troops carried out operations in the aforementioned area during the second week of April. The operations, however, were unproductive. Dincote also obtained information according to which "Feliciano" presided over the meeting, during which it was decided to start a new phase of the "people's war" as well as plan an operation to rescue Abimael Guzman, dead or alive, at any cost. The five-point document issued at the end of the meeting is attached to lengthy citations of speeches by Abimael Guzman and documents signed by him that show why the war must not end. The following is one of the citations chosen by the Shining Path Central Committee to uphold its decisions: "Always taking into account the glorious actions of the people's war, the people's war cannot end. The leadership may be wiped out completely or partially, but those leaders who are not must and can continue carrying out plans, the struggle, the people's war. We were taught that the revolution will not stop, will not become paralyzed." This was selected from the document entitled "To Conquer Power in the Midst of the People's War" that was drafted during the Second Shining Path Central Committee Plenum, when Guzman was still free. The document even mentions what must be done with those who uphold peace and put down arms: "There are two reasons for surrendering: to surrender in view of local reaction and to surrender in view of international reaction. This is always the case. Its purpose is to ruin the revolution. Those who surrender, therefore, are no good, and must be wiped out through fire and bloodshed." (Preliminary Session of the Second Plenum). The first of the five points discussed during the meeting refers to "reasserting" the agreements reached during the Third Central Committee Plenum, which was held in March 1992 and headed by Abimael Guzman Reinoso. This plenum was labeled "glorious, historic, and momentous" as it planned the terrible wave of violence unleashed by the Shining Path in July 1992. During the 1992 partisan meeting, it was stated that during an adverse situation the party should draft "a new plan, taking into account the experience of the past years, establish new axes, sub-axes, guidelines, and lines of action with a nationwide criteria (...), seek new ways to develop and set up strategic military plans, and establish, for example, those objectives and carry them out on an established date." It seems that the Third Central Committee Plenum's assessment of what was happening to the Shining Path was negative and, therefore, it was decided to unleash a fierce wave of violence in order to conceal the weaknesses of the Maoist organization. The second point of the document of the Central Committee meeting presided over by "Feliciano" highlights the agreements of the Working Meeting of the Shining Path leadership held in August 1993, almost one year after Guzman was arrested, and during which the implementation of the agreements of the Third Plenum held in March 1992 was discussed. During the working meeting, and in addition to approving the efforts to "step up investigations to determine the sanctions for those who are found responsible" for contributing to the arrest of Abimael Guzman, it was agreed, among other issues: 1. To defend the life of "President Gonzalo" by widely preaching our ideology, by showing great courage, placing even our lives at stake, by keeping our red and invincible flag flying high, and by pursuing our unwavering objective: communism." 2. To reassert the conclusions of the Third Central Committee Plenum (March 1992), "personally presided over by President Gonzalo, whose victorious appearance revealed its glorious, historic, and momentous nature; the second most important milestone after the congress (held in 1988)." 3. To reassert the three strategies: the political strategy: to conquer power; the military strategy: the people's war, to develop the war of movements and promote arrangements for the uprising of cities; and the construction strategy: to make arrangements to conquer power in the midst of the people's war. Based on the conclusions of the Third Plenum and the Working Meeting, the Central Committee, during the meeting in February presided over by "Feliciano," reasserted "the principle of revolutionary violence as a universal law expressed in the people's war." The third point discussed during the Central Committee meeting headed by "Feliciano" referred to the militants who uphold the peace accord. The document addresses this aspect of the internal debate as: "About the Struggle Against the Counterrevolutionary Hoax and the Black Group that upholds a Right-Wing Opportunist Line (LOD)." In order to confront the Black Group or LOD, which are nothing but Shining Path militants who sign Abimael Guzman's letters and uphold his "great decision and definition" to negotiate with the government in order to end the war, the Central Committee demands that the militants "grow stronger on the Basis for Partisan Unity [Base de Unidad Partidaria, BUP]," which is the Shining Path basic principles adopted during the 1988 Congress, and "arrange for conquering power in the midst of the people's war." The Central Committee Plenum that "Feliciano" presided over in order to break away from the Black Group orders the "unleashing of a massive reassertion movement based on the BUP throughout the party, the People's Liberation Army, and among the masses of the New Power."

shining path congress;arrested leaders;peace accord;five-point document;abimael guzman reinoso;revolutionary violence;shining path central committee;black group;people's war;shining path meeting

FBIS4-67721

Number of Tuberculosis Cases in Latvia Increases

CSO [Article by Anda Mikelsone: "Number of Tuberculosis Cases in Latvia Increases"] [Text] Riga, Feb.4. There has been an increase in tuberculosis morbidity and mortality during the past year. In comparison with 1992, tuberculosis morbidity has increased by 14.8%, and mortality -- by 44%. The total number of tuberculosis cases in 1993 was 868, while in the 1992 -- it was 771. Inta Pavlovska, director of the data processing and registry division of the State Tuberculosis and Lung Disease Center informed DIENA that the increase in tuberculosis morbidity could be related to the poor socioeconomic conditions in the nation, as well as shortcomings in the legislative process. At the present time, there are no laws in Latvia that would require infectious cases of tuberculosis to undergo mandatory treatment. In November of the past year, the Department of Health of the Ministry of Welfare submitted a medical legislative proposal to the Cabinet of Ministers, which would require infectious cases of tuberculosis to undergo mandatory treatment, explained I. Pavlovska. To this day, the proposal to the Cabinet of Ministers has still not been reviewed. At present, Latvia has 11 state tuberculosis hospitals, providing treatment for tuberculosis cases free of charge. The newest of these -- Ceplisi (in Ogre rayon), only started operations in January of this year. Most of the patients there, however, are chronic alcoholics who suffer from tuberculosis.

tuberculosis hospitals;mortality;mandatory treatment;tuberculosis cases;tuberculosis morbidity

FT911-2650

Challenge to foster human capital: As bankers and finance ministers gather in Washington, the World Bank looks for fresh vigour under a new chief

How can 6,000 civil servants, mostly based in Washington, best promote development in the Third World? That is the vexing question facing Mr Lewis Preston, the former chairman of J P Morgan, the New York bank, who takes over as president of the World Bank this September. As bankers and finance ministers gathered in Washington this weekend for the spring meetings of the bank and International Monetary Fund, there was no shortage of advice. The US Treasury wants the bank to bypass the governments of developing countries and lend sizeable sums directly to the private sector. The bank is also under pressure to follow the example of Mr Jacques Attali's European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and attach strict political conditions to its loans. Development economists, meanwhile, are urging the bank to respect the rhetoric of last year's World Development Report and focus more on poverty alleviation. Mr Preston may relax on one count. Few in Washington now doubt that the bank is needed: new imperatives, such as reconstruction in eastern Europe and the Middle East, have merely been superimposed on older, unsolved problems: Grinding poverty is a near universal condition in much of the world: 1bn people live on less than Dollars 1 a day. More than 110m Third World children lack access even to primary education. Horrific inequality abounds. In Mexico, life expectancy for the poorest 10 per cent is 20 years less than for the richest 10 per cent. What kind of bank will Mr Preston inherit from his predecessor, Mr Barber Conable? Most reports are mixed. 'It is not an impressive bureaucracy,' says Mr John Williamson, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. 'The morale of staff is lousy,' says Mr Charles Flickner, a senior analyst on the Senate Budget Committee and close observer of the bank. Mr Conable, a former Republican congressman, arrived at the bank in 1986 knowing little about either banking or development. Although now well-liked (partly for championing causes such as women's rights in the Third World), many observers say he never fully recovered from a rocky start involving a divisive internal reorganisation of the bank. Mr Percy Mistry, a scholar at Queen Elizabeth House, Oxford, and former senior adviser at the bank, says it suffered from 'presidential failure' during the 1980s. Mr Robert McNamara, a forceful chief executive in the 1970s, built a presidential institution that responded to firm leadership from the top. But neither Mr Conable nor his predecessor, Mr A W 'Tom' Clausen, a commercial banker, could fill his shoes. For a decade the bank has effectively been run by two senior - and strong-willed - vice-presidents: Mr Ernest Stern (who nearly left last year to join the EBRD) and Mr Moeen Qureshi. Mr Preston's first challenge, says Mr Mistry, will be to wrest control of the bank from Messrs Stern and Qureshi; his second, to prune legions of 'useless advisers' and install managers with real-world experience. His third, one might add, will be quickly to establish his independence from the US Treasury which always browbeats a newcomer. What kind of development legacy will Mr Preston inherit? In spite of recent progress in a few countries, such as Mexico, the past decade has been one of relative failure. Many Third World countries have gone backwards. Real per capita incomes have declined substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, and mildly in Latin America. The biggest drag on growth is the huge debt accumulated in the 1970s and early 1980s. Many optimists see the debt reduction strategy launched by Mr Nicholas Brady, the US Treasury Secretary, in 1989, as a 'final solution' to the debt crisis. Under the plan official agencies assume some of the burden of developing countries' private debts on condition that they implement market-oriented economic reforms. 'The Brady plan is enough,' says Mr Williamson, if developing countries are willing to embrace reform and if it is matched by greater forgiveness of official debt. Officials such as Mr David Mulford of the US Treasury say the recent forgiveness of about half of Poland's official debt will not set a precedent for other debtors. Mr Williamson laughs. 'In the long run it will be impossible to isolate Poland,' he says. 'It is not so much more deserving than other countries.' But why was a Brady-type solution not launched much earlier? For most of the 1980s, the First World doggedly refused to consider debt forgiveness. The result of delay and compound interest is a total debt burden today of some Dollars 1,341bn compared with a relatively manageable Dollars 639bn in 1980. 'The bank failed to take a timely leadership position on the debt crisis,' concludes Mr Richard Feinberg, director of the Overseas Development Council in Washington. (The IMF was equally short-sighted.) As incoming president, Mr Preston must review the bank's strategies for promoting development. The main innovation of the 1980s was a switch from project lending to 'structural adjustment' lending. Making finance conditional on structural reforms was supposed to transform the economic performance of developing countries. But studies indicate the results have been fairly unimpressive. This is both because countries failed to abide by the loan conditions and because the bank's policies were sometimes misguided. Professor John Toye, director of the Institute for Development Studies at Sussex University, recently completed an exhaustive analysis of bank programmes. He concludes (as do internal bank analyses) that policy-based lending has 'achieved something, particularly in relation to the external account, but not nearly as much as the bank and donor community hoped'. On average programmes have reduced balance of payments gaps, had a negligible impact on Gross National Product and led to falls in the ratio of investment to GNP. Mr Feinberg calls the decline in investment the 'great shortcoming of structural adjustment lending in the 1980s'. (Investment to GNP ratios have fallen markedly in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.) He says the bank was naive to expect entrepreneurs to respond to the austerity of adjustment by increasing investment. How can the bank do better in the 1990s? One problem is that it has lost leverage over many Third World governments. The maturing of bank programmes and the failure to expand lending much in the 1980s has led to a marked shrinkage in its net transfers to developing countries.

poverty alleviation;washington;world bank;third world;lewis preston;president;loan conditions

FT911-3463

Commodities and Agriculture: Botswana tries to loosen De Beers' grip - The world diamond cartel faces strong calls for change

NEGOTIATIONS FOR a new contract between Botswana, the world's most important diamond producer in value terms, and De Beers, the South African group which controls 80 per cent of the market for rough (uncut) diamonds, are taking much longer than expected. The previous three-year contract ended on December 31. Some Botswana politicians want to change De Beers' exclusive sales contract so that part of their country's output can be sold independently of the South African group's international cartel. This would give Botswana its own 'market window' to see what its diamonds are worth in the free market. De Beers is resisting any change. Mr Nicholas Oppenheimer, chairman of the group's Central Selling Organisation, argues that if Botswana chose not to sell its production exclusively through his organisation, the CSO's ability to regulate the distribution of rough diamonds would be compromised. He said: 'Because the major (diamond) producers freely consent to sell exclusively through one channel, the CSO is able to preserve an orderly market by matching rough diamond sales closely to consumer demand.' However, IDC (Holdings), a London-based group which claims to be the most experienced and substantial dealer in rough diamonds independent of the CSO, suggests the CSO's attitude 'is unreasonable and based on a conceptual argument with little substance in fact.' In presentations to Botswana's Minerals Policy Committee and members of parliament, IDC has been arguing that, not only was it commercially essential for Botswana to understand the real value of its diamond output, but that the country had a political responsibility to do so. 'Data accumulated independently of the CSO would put Botswana in a position to have more input into the arrangements for the sale of its diamonds,' IDC pointed out. 'On a political level this would enable the government to answer its critics or its electors with confidence and sure knowledge when questioned about arrangements for the disposal of the country's mineral assets.' If Botswana were to sell 10 per cent of its rough diamond production, worth about USDollars 100m, independently of the CSO - which sells about Dollars 4bn-worth a year from all over the world - it would represent no threat to market stability, IDC said. It claims analysts have estimated that 50 per cent of De Beers' diamond profits in 1989 came from Botswana. 'This profit is disproportionate to the sale of diamonds by Debswana (De Beers' subsidiary in Botswana) to the CSO as a percentage of the CSO's total sales profits,' IDC says. 'It is not unreasonable to reflect whether the fact that Botswana is the only major producer currently selling 100 per cent of its production to the CSO has any bearing on the substantial profits made by the CSO on the sale of its diamonds.' Other substantial producers such as the Soviet Union, Angola, Zaire and Australia do not sell all their production to the CSO and therefore have access to independent market information. IDC does have a vested interest. It already markets diamonds for producers in Guinea, Guyana, Brazil and the Central African Republic, and is offering to do some marketing for Botswana. It acknowledges that all sectors of the diamond trade welcomed the CSO's efforts to keep the diamond market stable. But 'the fact that the CSO forms part of an aggressive, profit-motivated public company with a primary responsibility to its shareholders is often lost from view.' De Beers says Botswana diamonds do not contribute half its diamond account profits - but it will not divulge the true figure. It suggests IDC's arguments are flawed because they are based on an assumption that Botswana needs more market information. However, in common with other producers selling diamonds to the CSO, Botswana has appointed independent valuers who continuously monitor diamond production and the prices paid. According to the CSO, these valuers are fully informed about market conditions and the prices received for Botswana stones. Mr Geoffrey Leggett at IDC suggests, however, the valuer only ensures that the assortment of diamonds from Botswana conforms to an agreed sample and that the agreed contract price is paid. 'He is not a trader, he does not know what the stones are worth in the market.' De Beers insists it remains on cordial terms with Botswana and says the country is still selling its diamonds through the CSO. It is not the first time that contract negotiations have gone on past the theoretical deadline. The Botswana government recently set up a diamond cutting centre with De Beers' technical help, and this, too, should further the country's understanding of the market. There has been a special relationship between the CSO and Botswana since 1987 when the country sold its diamond stockpile to De Beers in exchange for an estimated USDollars 250m and a 5.27 per cent shareholding in the South African group. Analysts suggest market conditions do not help Botswana press its case. De Beers, which itself mines about 40 per cent of the world's annual rough diamond output, markets stones from Angola, Australia, Namibia, Tanzania, Zaire and the Soviet Union, as well as South Africa and Botswana. Prices of rough diamonds, with few exceptions, have moved upwards every year since the 1930s depression. But now De Beers is steering the world's most successful cartel through depressed market conditions caused by the recession in the US (the biggest single market for diamonds), sogginess in Japan (the second-largest), and the Gulf war. To maintain price stability, the CSO is stockpiling diamonds at great expense, rather than releasing unwanted stones to the market. Its promotional budget has been lifted by 20 per cent to more than Dollars 1m a week - Dollars 53m for the year. In addition, Botswana this year faces its first budgetary deficit since 1982 and, according to De Beers' calculations, one of its diamond mines - Orapa -needs investment of USDollars 600m. The CSO has also notched up some recent coups: bringing a big part of the Soviet Union's and Angola's rough diamond output back into the cartel - or what it calls its 'single channel marketing' - arrangements. However, the CSO is also currently involved in contract negotiations with Argyle Diamonds, the western Australian company which is the biggest individual diamond producer in volume (but only sixth in value) terms. Argyle, too, wants to stay with the CSO when its contract ends on May 1 - but on more favourable terms. A delegation from Botswana is to meet CSO representatives in London at the end of this month for another attempt to break the deadlock. The industry is betting that Botswana will give way, perhaps in return for De Beers helping to finance the Orapa mine investment. However, the 'market window' idea is unlikely to be dropped and will almost certainly be raised again when the next contract negotiations start.

diamond trade;exclusive sales contract;rough diamond output;south african group;botswana politicians;botswana diamonds;central selling organisation;rough diamond sales;individual diamond producer;de beers;contract negotiations

FT911-5176

Letter: Don't encourage Third World defaults

Sir, Mr James Skinner (Letters, April 11) charges me with misuse of statistics and understanding the debt burden of poor countries. He cites Africa to support his contention. The statistics I used refer to Latin America, the principal thrust of the argument of the Bishop of Oxford, which focused largely on Brazil. The bulk of African debt is owed to official lenders under various aid agreements. The debts represent loans with a substantial grant element. The limiting case is the international development association loans, 50-year loans, unindexed for inflation, at zero interest. The debts of African countries have often been cancelled or rescheduled, frequently several times for the same country. To treat debt as necessarily burdensome also ignores the initial transfer of resources. This is like saying that banks, building societies, and governments issuing saving certificates are burdened when they pay interest. If the funds are used productively, debt service is not a burden in the critical sense that the debtors would be better off if they had not borrowed. I do not know what Mr Skinner has in mind in referring to institutions serving only western interests, and by clear implication inflict suffering on the poor. What I do know is that throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America the level of material achievement declines as we move away from the effect of western commerce. To harp on alleged external causes of Third World poverty diverts attention from the real factors behind this poverty which are domestic, and thereby from the possibilities of addressing these. These factors include, among others, government policies and extensive, often enforced, dependence on precarious subsistence production. It is pertinent also that the poorest are low among the priorities of the local rulers. State help for the poorest, especially the rural poor, conflicts with the political and personal interests of the rulers, and may not accord with local mores. Such considerations are reinforced by ubiquitous civil conflict. An Arab-dominated Sudanese government will not help the poorest blacks hundreds of miles away with whom it is in armed conflict; the Sinhalese government will not help the Tamil poor, nor will the government of Ethiopia the poor of Tigre. As I said in my letter, harping on alleged western causes of Third World poverty reflects and reinforces feelings of guilt, which is a self-centred sentiment. Encouraging Third World countries to default inhibits the inflow of productive commercial capital, which, together with the skills that went with it, over the last 150 years transformed life in many poor countries, notably in south-east Asia, west Africa and Latin America. Bauer House of Lords, Westminster SW1

african debt;third world poverty;debt burden;government policies;james skinner;real factors

FT921-305

Survey of Republic of Slovenia (2): EC-sponsored talks may help resolve problems - Debt: Relations with the former Yugoslav central bank must be settled

SLOVENIA'S economic prospects would improve significantly if it could settle its relations with the former National Bank of Yugoslavia (NBY), or central bank, establish new relations with foreign creditors as rapidly as possible, and join the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Relations with the NBY are complicated. Before Slovenia declared independence, any foreign exchange deposits which Slovene citizens deposited in banks in Slovenia were transferred to the NBY. These deposits amount to Dollars 1.2bn. In addition, Croatian citizens in neighbouring Croatia also deposited Dollars 465m into Slovene banks in Croatia. Since independence, these accounts have been frozen. Officials at the the Ljubljanska Bank, Slovenia's largest bank into which the majority of the foreign exchange accounts were originally deposited, are hoping that the the government of Slovenia will guarantee these debts and open up negotiations with the NBY for the eventual return of the deposits. Mr Marko Kranjec, vice-governor of the Bank of Slovenia, or central bank, reckons Slovenes will have to wait years before they can obtain their foreign exchange savings. He says much depends on the negotiations and political atmosphere between Ljubljana and Belgrade. Slovene officials are also anxious to start negotiations on the unallocated Yugoslav federal debt. The federal debt totals Dollars 14.6bn. Of this amount, Slovenia accepts that its allocated share of that debt is Dollars 1.8bn. 'We will not renege on repaying this debt,' said Mr Andrej Klemencic, adviser to Slovenia's Ministry of Finance. The debt-service ratio is about 40 per cent of Slovenia's GDP. Last year's GDP amounted to Dollars 13.5bn. Mr Jose Mencinger, a member of the board of Slovenia's central bank, said servicing that debt should not be a problem. 'Last year, our exports totalled Dollars 3.8bn. That is a decline of only 5 per cent compared to the year before. So, we are not in such a bad position with regard to servicing the debt,' he said. However, negotiating what share of the unallocated federal debt Slovenia should assume is already proving difficult. The unallocated federal debt - which consists of loans to the NBY, or the federal government which had not been specifically earmarked for projects in any of the six republics of the former Yugoslavia - amounts to Dollars 3.5bn. Slovene officials say they are committed to repaying its share of the unallocated federal debt. Mr Kranjec says that the Bank of Slovenia has already proposed negotiations on this issue, as well as trying to discuss the status of the NBY'S foreign exchange reserves, the clearing balances with the countries of the former CMEA socialist trading organisation, and operations of banks. 'This is going to take a long time to settle,' said Mr Kranjec. He and other Slovene economists now believe that the European Community-sponsored peace conference on Yugoslavia could play a role in negotiating issues related to the debt. Resolution of these issues, and recognition by the US of Slovenia, would speed the republic's admission to the International Monetary Fund and other financial institutions.

foreign exchange deposits;foreign creditors;slovene banks;national bank of yugoslavia;yugoslavia;negotiations;independence;unallocated federal debt;slovene citizens;federal government

FT921-9310

Commodities and Agriculture: 'Mad cow' disease spreads to antelopes

THE CONDITION known in cattle as 'mad cow disease', spongiform encephalopathies, has been found in Britain's sparsely-scattered antelope population, the government has admitted. Three elands, three greater kudu and an arabian oryx have been diagnosed with the disease over the past three years. In all, six species other than cattle have been confirmed with the condition during this period. The statistics - released in response to a written question from Mr Ron Davies, a Labour agriculture spokesman - show a disconcertingly rapid increase in the number of sheep found to have the disease. A total of 894 cases of sheep encephalopathies or 'scrapie' were diagnosed in 1991, versus just 348 a year-earlier. However, the government states in a footnote to the table that the reporting of scrapie in sheep has been encouraged since 1991 'to obtain material for spongiform encephalopathy research'. Since 1989, the condition has also been confirmed in 23 cats and 29 goats. Mr David Maclean, junior agriculture minister, stressed that naturally occurring spongiform encephalopathies in species other than cattle were not notifiable diseases. He said there was 'insufficient epidemiological data' to 'draw firm conclusions' as to how the disease might have been contracted in cases other than scrapie. Scrapie, he said, was considered to be transmissible 'both maternally and horizontally'.

mad cow disease;scrapie;sheep encephalopathies;antelope population;spongiform encephalopathies

FT922-10200

Violence in the US: Final blot on record of insensitive police chief

LOS ANGELES Police Chief Daryl Gates had been accused of nurturing one of the most brutal police forces in the country: now he is under attack for fuelling the violence and then standing by as it rolled across poor black neighbourhoods. Mr Gates acknowledged yesterday that his department had been overwhelmed by the scale of the violence. Police could only look on, outnumbered, as crowds looted shops, and moved in mostly to protect firefighters from attack. The controversial police chief was said to have argued on Wednesday, the first night of rioting, against sending in National Guard troops, and only to have bowed later to evidence that his police force was incapable of handling the violence. That the Los Angeles police department should have been overwhelmed by the riots may be understandable, but it represents one final blot on Mr Gates's reputation. In his 14 years of office, his critics say he has built a heavily politicised force in his own image: aggressive, insensitive and widely tinged with racism. Shortly after his appointment in 1978, Mr Gates told a Hispanic audience that Hispanic officers were not promoted because they were lazy, and he later suggested that the carotid choke hold - a police technique severely curbed in 1983 after police had killed 16 suspects with it - might be more dangerous for blacks because their arteries did not open up as fast as on 'normal people'. In March, Mr Gates strongly defended the detective who had led an investigation 17 years earlier into the killing of an off-duty Los Angeles police officer, although a judge had just released the two men wrongfully convicted, calling police conduct 'reprehensible' and urging an immediate investigation of the 'sordid record'. The detective involved now heads the unit which investigates shootings involving police officers. But the Los Angeles police chief has almost complete protection from removal under a 1937 statute that followed a series of political scandals, and Mr Gates has developed political clout on top of this job security. President George Bush last year called Mr Gates 'an exemplary police chief,' although at the time he called the conduct of the four Los Angeles officers -whose acquittal this week over the beating of a black motorist triggered this week's protests and violence - 'sickening' and 'outrageous'. A high-ranking commission appointed after the beating, under the chairmanship of Mr Warren Christopher, a lawyer and former deputy secretary of state, concluded that the Los Angeles police department got results, in terms of arrests, but had developed a 'siege mentality that alienates the officer from the community'. Besides recommending that Mr Gates should go, the Christopher commission urged a policy of community policing with more foot patrols, as well as measures to discipline racist police officers and to improve the investigation of complaints about police brutality. The commission found that a significant minority of the Los Angeles police force 'repetitively misuse force' without being properly disciplined. Six months after its initial report, however, the commission noted that of the 44 officers identified as the object of six or more brutality complaints, two had been fired, three had resigned and 11 removed from field duty. Mr Gates has finally agreed to step down in June. His replacement, Mr Willie Williams, will be the first black head of the Los Angeles force. Mr Williams faces an uphill struggle, but he has drawn widespread praise as Philadelphia's police commissioner since 1988 for mending fences between the police and the community - notably through the use of the foot patrol methods recommended by the Christopher commission.

resignation;investigation;daryl gates;violence;brutality complaints;brutal police forces;police brutality

FT922-3171

World Trade News: US political sands shift under Nafta - Prospects for the free trade deal are no longer so certain

JUST weeks ago, the prospects for the North American free trade agreement seemed assured. The proposed pact between the US, Canada and Mexico had the support of the Republican establishment, of Governor Bill Clinton, the prospective Democratic nominee, of the powerful Texas Democrats on Capitol Hill and most of the Democratic leadership in Congress. But the outpouring of public disaffection for 'politics as usual' has pushed to the forefront of many polls in the US election campaign Mr Ross Perot, the Texas billionaire. His campaign for the presidency is stressing jobs, and he has said a Nafta pact would send jobs to Mexico. The White House has taken its own polls and remains convinced that President Bush's support for Nafta is a winning issue. Although many working class Hispanic Americans believe Nafta would cost jobs, the Latino business organisations cautiously support the pact. Under the tightly constrained fast-track procedure - which forces Congress to vote on a trade pact without amendment - it is too late to get Nafta approved by Congress this year. Between retirements and election defeats, one-quarter to a one-third of the House could change, and no one can foresee the prevailing sentiment on trade issues. The president is expected to stage a high profile initialing of the agreement at the most politically opportune time. Politically sophisticated trade lobbyists, like Mr Harry Freeman, executive director of the MTN Coalition, believes the Democrats will use Nafta as a weapon against the president, arguing that he wants to divert jobs to Mexico. A centrepiece of the opposition will be a letter from the president to the Congress in May 1991, in which he committed himself to action on environmental issues, labour rights and worker adjustment assistance. 'Whatever the administration sends to Capitol Hill with Nafta, or if they don't send a complete package in these three areas, the Congressional Democrats will seize upon the deficiency - real or alleged, it doesn't matter,' said Mr Freeman. Governor Clinton is also likely to deem the pact the 'wrong kind of Nafta'. The environment/farm/ labour coalition opposed to the Nafta has prepared its ground well in the House. It now has 200 signatories to a resolution, introduced by Congressman Henry Waxman and majority leader Richard Gephardt, which warns that they will not support a Nafta that does not have strong environment or food safety provisions. Fifty-seven of the 200 signatories voted for the president's fast-track authority and now may be moving over on the issue. 'There are millions more people who 'get' the Nafta now,' said Ms Lori Wallach of Ralph Nader's Public Citizen. 'They have been contacted by their local churches, labour unions, farm groups, environmental or consumer organisations. There is a new awareness of its costs and that has come back to their representatives in Washington.' In the Senate, Nafta is threatened by a resolution introduced by Senator Don Riegle, which would permit Congress to amend the agreement in five areas. 'If the Riegle resolution gets through,' said one business lobbyist, 'we might as well kiss Nafta goodbye.'

republican establishment;free trade agreement;us election campaign;congressional democrats;north american;labor coalition;food safety provisions;hispanic americans;public disaffection;president bush;environmental issues;nafta pact;governor bill clinton;mr ross perot

FT922-6646

World Trade News: Slovenia looks to Community for new markets

THE war in the former republics of Yugoslavia is forcing Slovene enterprises to find alternative trading partners among European Community countries as a means of compensating for lost markets in the region. However, Slovene officials warn that capital inflows will not increase unless Slovenia re-establishes trade links with its southern neighbours. Until 1990, over 30 per cent of Slovenia's exports were with the former Yugoslavia, while about 70 per cent were divided between Comecon, the now defunct socialist trading block, and western European countries. But following an embargo by Serbia on Slovene imports in 1990, and ensuing war in neighbouring Croatia last year, Slovene exports to the former Yugoslavia have fallen to 15 per cent of that previously. The loss of markets in the former Yugoslavia, and the war, has led to a sharp drop in industrial production, which last year fell by 15 per cent, and will fall a further 12 per cent this year. Unemployment has risen to 101,000, up from 9 per cent to 11 per cent of the labour force. However, inflation is falling thanks to a strong monetary policy implemented by Slovenia's central bank. Inflation was running at 25 per cent a month last October, but by April it had fallen to 5 per cent. Mr Feri Horvath, head of Slovenia's Chamber of Commerce, said Slovenia, which declared its independence last June, must seek new markets because the republic is too small to be able to attract large amounts of foreign investment to foster growth. Renault, French car manufacturer, which assembles cars in Slovenia, and Siemens, German-based mechanical and electrical goods maker, which has a joint venture with Iskra, Slovenia's electronic and telecommunications manufacturer, have used Slovenia as a base for exporting to other parts of Yugoslavia, as well as to western Europe. 'We have recently signed bilateral trade agreements with Croatia and Macedonia,' said Mr Horvath. 'We want to normalise relations with the other republics,' he added. In the meantime, Slovene enterprises, particularly those in the furniture, electronics, paper, and white goods sector, are exporting to European Community countries. Exports for the first quarter amounted to Dollars 941m (Pounds 513m), and imports totalled Dollars 752m. Last year, total exports of goods reached Dollars 3.9bn, and imports, Dollars 4.1bn. 'Our enterprises are beginning to find new markets,' said Mr Horvath, adding that Germany, Italy, France and Austria are now Slovenia's main trading partners. Mrs Vojka Ravbar, Slovenia's deputy foreign minister, who earlier this week headed a trade delegation to the UK, said enterprises will have to become even more competitive after privatisation. Parliament is now discussing a privatisation bill.

european community countries;former yugoslavia;foreign investment;trade links;slovene exports;capital inflows;independence;slovenia;slovene officials;slovene enterprises

FT922-8860

World Bank links loan volume to poverty relief

THE World Bank will link loan volume to the strength of a country's efforts to fight poverty, according to an operational directive to staff issued today by Mr Lewis Preston, the bank's president. The link between loans and poverty relief forms part of a new drive to make poverty alleviation the bank's central mission in the 1990s. The shift in priorities is also reflected in a commitment to make comprehensive assessments of the nature and extent of poverty in the third world, allowing the bank to design more effective policies to fight poverty. In the directive, Mr Preston says poverty reduction is 'the benchmark by which our performance as a development institution will be measured'. He adds that the new instructions to staff are intended to 'ensure that these policies are fully reflected in the bank's operations'. The bank is also publishing a handbook containing examples of past best practice on poverty reduction. The bank says poverty assessments should be available for most developing countries within two years. These would form the basis for a 'collaborative approach to poverty reduction by country officials and the bank'. The directive signals an attempt to impose a form of 'social conditionality' on borrowing countries. 'Stronger government commitment to poverty reduction warrants greater support; conversely, weaker commitment to poverty reduction warrants less support,' it says. Mr Preston's emphasis on poverty is a reaction to bank policies in the 1980s, when the aim was to improve economic efficiency in developing countries. The new directive says structural adjustment lending in the past decade 'overshadowed the bank's poverty reduction objectives'. The bank is also reacting to new evidence suggesting that the number of poor in developing countries will rise during the 1990s, rather than stabilise as had been expected. Poverty his judge, Page 34

poverty alleviation;world bank;poverty reduction objectives;third world;bank policies;poverty assessments;loan volume;poverty relief

FT923-5089

Bush calls on power to dispense largesse: Hurricane's aid to the president

THERE are growing signs that Hurricane Andrew, unwelcome as it was for the devastated inhabitants of Florida and Louisiana, may in the end do no harm to the re-election campaign of President George Bush. After a faltering and heavily criticised initial response to the disaster, both the president and his administration seem finally to be getting assistance to those rendered homeless and to businesses and farms that have been destroyed. In the process, Mr Bush has been able to call on the power of incumbency, the one asset denied his presidential rival, Mr Bill Clinton, who is to visit Florida today. This was brought home graphically by the president's announcement that Homestead Air Force base in Florida - a major local employer virtually destroyed by Andrew - would be rebuilt. His poignant and brief address to the nation on Tuesday night, committing the government to pay the emergency relief costs and calling on Americans to contribute to the American Red Cross, also struck the right sort of note. It was only his tenth such televised speech from the Oval Office, itself a testimony to the gravity of the situation. As if to underline the political benefit to the president, a Harris poll conducted from August 26 to September 1 yesterday showed Mr Bush with 45 per cent support - behind Mr Clinton by just five points - reflecting a closer race than other recent surveys. With Mr Bush constantly in the headlines, Mr Clinton has been left on the sidelines, able to do little more than offer sympathy and sotto voce criticism of the president's initial stumbling. First responses were certainly found wanting, specifically in the performance of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) set up by President Carter in 1979 to handle disasters such as Andrew. FEMA has, under the Republicans, become the ultimate patronage backwater, with, according to one congressional study, ten times as many political appointees as the typical arm of government. Its current head, Mr Wallace Stickney, is a New Hampshire political associate of Mr John Sununu, the former state governor and White House chief of staff. Contrary to its brief, but confirming a prescient recent report by a House committee that Mr Stickney was 'uninterested in substantive programmes', FEMA was caught completely unprepared by Andrew, resulting in unseemly disputes between state and federal authorities over who did what in bringing relief. However, the arrival in Florida of the military and the assignment of special responsibilities to Mr Andrew Card, the young and telegenic transportation secretary, is making a difference. Also increasingly evident is the hand of Mr James Baker, now ensconced at the White House. It was Mr Baker who reshuffled the president's campaign schedule to make room for visits to the devastated areas and who pushed for a bigger role for the previously obscure Mr Card. It is also Mr Baker who is making the most of presidential powers to dispense largesse. Yesterday, Mr Bush flew to South Dakota to tell farmers of an expansion of the subsidised grains exports programme and then to the General Dynamics factory in Texas to announce an F-16 fighter sale to Taiwan. Both are, of course, intensely political actions. Both involve federal subsidies, as does relief for Andrew, that run counter to Mr Bush's commitment to reduce the budget deficit. But both may be presented by a president as being in the national interest because they guarantee employment, which is what the election is largely about. US insurers expect to pay out around Dollars 500m in claims as a result of damage caused by Hurricane Andrew in Louisiana, the American Insurance Services Group said yesterday, Nikki Tait reports. This takes the insurance bill from the storm to around Dollars 8bn, making it the costliest disaster to hit the US.

florida;president george bush;disaster;election campaign;hurricane andrew;emergency relief;louisiana

FT923-5267

Hurricane insurers expect record claims

US INSURERS expect to pay out an estimated Dollars 7.3bn (Pounds 3.7bn) in Florida as a result of Hurricane Andrew - by far the costliest disaster the industry has ever faced. The figure is the first official tally of the damage resulting from the hurricane, which ripped through southern Florida last week. In the battered region it is estimated that 275,000 people still have no electricity and at least 150,000 are either homeless or are living amid ruins. President George Bush yesterday made his second visit to the region since the hurricane hit. He pledged the government would see through the clean-up 'until the job is done'. Although there had already been some preliminary guesses at the level of insurance claims, yesterday's figure comes from the Property Claims Services division of the American Insurance Services Group, the property-casualty insurers' trade association. It follows an extensive survey of the area by the big insurance companies. Mr Gary Kerney, director of catastrophe services at the PCS, said the industry was expecting about 685,000 claims in Florida alone. It is reckoned the bulk of the damage - over Dollars 6bn in insured claims - is in Dade County, a rural region to the south of Miami. However, the final cost of Hurricane Andrew will be higher still. Yesterday's estimate does not include any projection for claims in Louisiana, which was also affected by the storm, although less severely than Florida. An estimate of the insured losses in this second state will be released later this week. But on the Florida losses alone, Hurricane Andrew becomes the most costly insured catastrophe in the US. Hurricane Hugo, which hit the east coast in September 1989, cost the insurance industry about Dollars 4.2bn. The Oakland fire disaster, in California last year, cost Dollars 1.2bn. By contrast, insurance claims resulting from the Los Angeles riots earlier this year - the most expensive civil disturbance in the US - totalled just Dollars 775m. Hurricane Andrew leaves the US property-casualty insurers facing their worst-ever year for catastrophe losses. The LA riots and a series of tornadoes, wind and hailstorms in states such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa had already produced insured losses of Dollars 3.9bn. With Florida's Hurricane Andrew losses added in, the total rises to Dollars 11.2bn. This easily exceeds the record Dollars 7.6bn of catastrophe losses seen in 1989, when the industry paid out on both Hurricane Hugo and the Loma Prieta earthquake in California. Wall Street, however, has reacted calmly to the record losses expected, and insurers' shares - although lower initially - have been firming recently. The property-casualty industry is thought to have adequate reserves to cover the disaster.

property-casualty industry;insured losses;property claims;florida losses;hurricane andrew;insurance claims;insurance industry

FT923-5797

Cleaning up after Andrew

SQUADS of workers fanned out across storm-battered Louisiana yesterday to begin a massive rebuilding effort after Hurricane Andrew had flattened whole districts, killing two people and injuring dozens more, agencies report from Florida and New Orleans. However, local officials in Florida, hit earlier in the week by the hurricane, were critical of what they called a delay in supplying food, drinking water and other supplies for thousands of people in need. Federal emergency officials acknowledged distribution problems, Transportation Secretary Andrew Card yesterday promised 'dramatic' improvements within 24 hours and President George Bush last night ordered troops to Florida, without specifying a number. The government estimated it would cost Dollars 20bn-Dollars 30bn to tidy and rebuild in Florida, and to care for residents displaced by the storm. Louisiana state officials said they had no overall count of storm-related injuries but initial estimates reckoned fewer than 100. The Federal Emergency Management Agency said it was setting aside Dollars 77m to help Louisiana recover. Most of the storm's fury was spent against sparsely populated farming communities and swampland in the state, sparing it the widespread destruction caused in Florida, where 15 people died. Official estimates in Miami reported that the hurricane had wiped out the homes of one Dade County resident in eight - a quarter of a million people. Andrew had become little more than a strong rainstorm early yesterday, moving across Mississippi state and heading for the north-eastern US. Several of Louisiana's main industries were affected, including those of oysters and alligators. Wildlife and fisheries secretary Joe Herring estimated a 50 per cent decline in the alligator industry. The cotton and sugar-cane crops were threatened, the state agriculture department said. Most Louisiana oil refineries, however, were barely affected and deliveries of crude oil were expected to resume yesterday.

florida;federal emergency;storm-related injuries;hurricane andrew;widespread destruction;louisiana;massive rebuilding effort

FT923-5835

UK Company News: GA says hurricane claims could reach 'up to Dollars 40m'

GENERAL ACCIDENT, the leading British insurer, said yesterday that insurance claims arising from Hurricane Andrew could 'cost it as much as Dollars 40m.' Lord Airlie, the chairman who was addressing an extraordinary shareholders' meeting, said: 'On the basis of emerging information, General Accident advise that the losses to their US operations arising from Hurricane Andrew, which struck Florida and Louisiana, might in total reach the level at which external catastrophe reinsurance covers would become exposed'. What this means is that GA is able to pass on its losses to external reinsurers once a certain claims threshold has been breached. It believes this threshold may be breached in respect of Hurricane Andrew claims. However, if this happens, it would suffer a post-tax loss of Dollars 40m (Pounds 20m). Mr Nelson Robertson, GA's chief general manager, explained later that the company has a 1/2 per cent share of the Florida market. It has a branch in Orlando. The company's loss adjusters are in the area trying to estimate the losses. Their guess is that losses to be faced by all insurers may total more than Dollars 8bn. Not all damaged property in the area is insured and there have been estimates that the storm caused more than Dollars 20bn of damage. However, other insurers have estimated that losses could be as low as Dollars 1bn in total. Mr Robertson said: 'No one knows at this time what the exact loss is'.

losses;hurricane andrew;insurer;insurance claims

FT923-5859

Commodities and Agriculture: Oppenheimer to visit Moscow as diamond shake-up looms

MR HARRY Oppenheimer, whose family effectively controls the Anglo American Corporation of South Africa and De Beers, is to visit Russia next week at a time when the republic is considering a big shake-up in its diamond industry. His visit also comes at a time when the beleaguered diamond industry is rife with rumours about unofficial exports from Russia contributing to the present market turmoil which might force De Beers to cut its dividend payment this year. Some industry observers suggest that the presence in Russia of Mr Oppenheimer, who will be 84 in October, will be timely. 'It appears to be another sign that the former De Beers' chairman is taking a more active role in guiding the company through its current difficulties,' says the Diamantaire newsletter today. De Beers said yesterday that the visit by Mr Oppenheimer, accompanied by his son Nicholas, was a private one originally arranged for August last year but postponed because of the coup d'etat in the former Soviet Union. However, it admitted that Mr Oppenheimer would be meeting senior officials from the Russian diamond industry during his stay because he would be going to some of the big mines in Siberia and would be present when De Beers held the formal opening of its Moscow office on September 8. De Beers' London-based Central Selling Organisation, which controls about 80 per cent of world trade in rough (uncut) diamonds, in 1990 signed a Dollars 5bn, five-year sales contract with the former Soviet Union and at the same time advanced a loan of Dollars 1bn. Diamond stocks were moved from Moscow to London as collateral for the loan. After the break-up of the Soviet Union the contract was continued with Rosalmazzoloto, the Russian gold and diamond organisation, and an exclusive sales agreement was later signed with Yukutia, the area in eastern Siberia where most Russian diamonds are mined and which is now an autonomous republic in the Russian Federation. A CSO spokesman said yesterday: 'The Russian contract is working. Everything is normal.' Diamantaire points out that the Russian parliament is to consider next month a plan to set up a state diamond centre under the control of the finance ministry and Komdragmet, formerly know as Gokhran, the Moscow depository of diamonds. Reports suggest that the diamond centre would have exclusive rights to buy all rough diamonds mined in the Russian Federation and it would also have a monopoly of sorting gem diamonds. These proposals are being opposed by the Yakut government, which is backing a joint-stock company, Almazy Rossli (Diamonds of Russia), being set up with Mr Valery Rudakov, formerly in charge of Rosalmazzoloto, at its head. Rosalmazzoloto is to be broken up. Almazy Rossli proposes to bring all the diamond industry's operations under one roof, says Diamantaire. Observers expect Mr Oppenheimer to bring his formidable negotiating skills to bear to ensure that De Beers grip on the diamond market is in no way weakened by any changes in Russia. Meanwhile, the newsletter, which is available only to subscribers to Diamond International magazine, also says that reports in Antwerp suggest that two of the Belgian diamond trading organisations with which the CSO has a special relationship have been punished by temporarily being excluded from the CSO's 'sights' or diamond sales. The CSO invites only about 160 privileged merchants to its ten 'sights' a year in London, Lucerne and Kimberley. Diamantaire says that one of the Belgian organisations has had dealings with Russia for more than 20 years. Diamond International and Diamantaire, from CRU Publishing, 31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD, UK.

state diamond centre;harry oppenheimer;russian federation;unofficial exports;yakut government;beleaguered diamond industry;london-based central selling organisation;rough diamonds;exclusive sales agreement;russian diamond industry;russian diamonds;de beers;south africa

FT923-6038

Hurricane batters southern US but lets insurers off lightly

HURRICANE Andrew, claimed to be the costliest natural disaster in US history, yesterday smashed its way through the state of Louisiana, inflicting severe damage on rural communities but narrowly missing the low-lying city of New Orleans. The storm, which brought havoc to southern Florida on Monday and then headed north-west across the Gulf of Mexico, had made landfall late on Tuesday night some 60 miles south-west of the city in the agricultural Cajun country. Although the damage from the hurricane's landfall in Florida on Monday was much greater than initially esti mated, insurers' losses there are likely to total less than Dollars 1bn, well below earlier expectations, a senior member of Lloyd's insurance market said yesterday. In Louisiana, the hurricane landed with wind speeds of about 120 miles per hour and caused severe damage in small coastal centres such as Morgan City, Franklin and New Iberia. Associated tornadoes devastated Laplace, 20 miles west of New Orleans. Then, however, Andrew lost force as it moved north over land. By yesterday afternoon, it had been down-graded to tropical storm, in that its sustained windspeeds were below 75 mph. Initial reports said at least one person had died, 75 been injured and thousands made homeless along the Louisiana coast, after 14 confirmed deaths in Florida and three in the Bahamas. The storm caused little damage to Louisiana's important oil-refining industry, although some plants had to halt production when electricity was cut. The Lloyd's member, in close contact with leading insurers in Florida, said that damage to insured property was remarkably small. More than Dollars 15bn of damage may have been caused in all, but was mostly to uninsured property, he said. In north Miami, damage is minimal. Worst affected is one hotel, whose basement was flooded. Most of the destruction occurred in a 10-mile band across Homestead, 25 miles to the south of Miami, where a typical house sells for Dollars 100,000 to Dollars 150,000. US insurers will face a bill in respect of such properties, but Lloyd's exposure there is minimal. Many destroyed power lines are thought to be uninsured, as are trees and shrubs uprooted across a wide area. Only one big hotel in that area has been badly damaged, a Holiday Inn. Across Florida, some 2m people remained without electric ity yesterday and health officials were warning the public to boil or chemically treat all water. Hurricane Hugo, which devastated much of South Carolina in 1989, cost the insurance industry some Dollars 4.2bn. Further uninsured losses may have raised the total to Dollars 6bn-Dollars 10bn.

tropical storm;new orleans;uninsured losses;hurricane andrew;louisiana;landfall;severe damage

FT923-6110

Hurricane damage put at Dollars 20bn as 2m people told to leave homes

DAMAGE CAUSED by Hurricane Andrew could rise to Dollars 20bn, it was estimated yesterday, as one of the costliest US storms this century threatened a further devastating landfall near the city of New Orleans. Government officials in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas yesterday advised or ordered more than 2m people to evacuate coastal areas. The hurricane tore through southern Florida early on Monday morning, causing billions of dollars of property damage and at least 12 deaths, and yesterday was moving north-west across the Gulf of Mexico with winds of about 140 miles an hour. At least three people died on Sunday when Hurricane Andrew crossed the Bahamas. Ms Kate Hale, director of emergency services in Florida's Dade County, which bore the brunt of the storm, estimated that Andrew had already caused Dollars 15bn to Dollars 20bn (Pounds 7.5bn-Pounds 10bn) of damage. However, insurance industry analysts cautioned that it was too early to assess the costs accurately. The US industry's Property Claims Service, the official compiler of disaster losses, had yet to compile a preliminary tally of the Florida bill. A hurricane warning was in effect yesterday along 470 miles of Gulf coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi, to Galvestone, Texas. Several forecasting agencies suggested the likeliest landfall was in central Louisiana, to the west of New Orleans, possibly late last night or this morning. New Orleans, with a population of 1.6m, is particularly vulnerable because the city lies below sea level, has the Mississippi River running through its centre and a large lake immediately to the north. Much of America's oil refining industry is concentrated along coastal Texas and Louisiana and several refineries were yesterday partially shut down. These included British Petroleum's Belle Chasse plant in Louisiana. In Florida, Andrew caused greatest havoc in a largely suburban swathe some 10-15 miles south of Miami. The town of Homestead, near the centre of the storm, was largely flattened, including a local air force base. Miami's city centre escaped with relatively light damage. More than 24 hours after the hurricane, some 825,000 households and businesses were still without power. The brunt of insurance claims from the Florida storm will fall on the US industry, and companies with a heavy local exposure include the State Farm Group and the Allstate Insurance unit of Sears Roebuck. These are also the leading property/casualty and home insurance groups in Louisiana, together with American International Group. A spokesman for State Farm Insurance said he believed the company had roughly 20 per cent of the Florida market. The mutually-owned company has no reinsurance. Its size has made obtaining reinsurance cover difficult and its reserves, at about Dollars 24bn, have made it unnecessary. According to Balcombe Group, a UK-based claims adjustment firm, other insurers with large exposure in the hurricane-hit area are Hartford Insurance, Aetna and Travellers. Travellers said it had flown 50 claims adjusters in to Florida late on Monday and was assessing losses. About 12 per cent of Travellers' home insurance premium income came from Florida last year, and 4.6 per cent of its commercial insurance premiums. The last serious US hurricane, Hugo, which struck South Carolina in 1989, cost the industry Dollars 4.2bn from insured losses, though estimates of the total damage caused ranged between Dollars 6bn and Dollars 10bn.

new orleans;disaster losses;property damage;hurricane andrew;emergency services;insurance claims

FT923-6455

US insurers face heaviest hurricane damage claims

US CITIES along the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to eastern Texas were on storm watch last night as Hurricane Andrew headed west after sweeping across southern Florida, causing at least eight deaths and severe property damage. The hurricane was one of the fiercest in the US in decades and the first to hit Miami directly in a quarter of a century. In the Bahamas, government spokesman Mr Jimmy Curry said four deaths had been reported on outlying eastern islands. Mr Justin Balcombe, of UK-based insurance adjuster Balcombe Group, said total losses could exceed Dollars 15bn if business interruption claims were taken into account. That compares with the Dollars 4bn-Dollars 6n (Pounds 2.1bn-Pounds 3.1bn) of insurance industry losses caused by the last big US hurricane, Hugo, which hit South Carolina in 1989. The brunt of the losses are likely to be concentrated among US insurers, industry analysts said yesterday. Mr George Lloyd-Roberts, chairman of Lloyd's Underwriters' Non-Marine Association, said that, unless damage claims exceeded Pounds 3bn, the Lloyd's insurance market would feel little impact. Because the reinsurance of reinsurance risk - known as the retrocession market - has shrunk considerably in recent years, US insurers have placed far fewer of their risks through Lloyd's. Mr Roger Hill, insurance analyst at Warburg Securities, said he estimated that mainline UK insurers faced no more than Pounds 75m in damage claims so far. 'At the moment we are relaxed about it,' he said. The real question, he added, is the level of reinsurance available to the UK underwriters. Royal Insurance estimated the company's losses at no more than Pounds 20m. Among other UK insurers, Mr Hill estimated that General Accident may face losses of up to Pounds 30m, while Guardian Royal Exchange faced Pounds 5m and Sun Alliance and Commercial Union Pounds 10m each. However, Hurricane Andrew gathered fresh strength as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico and there was concern last night that it might head towards New Orleans, which is especially low lying and could suffer severe flood damage. Scientists said the storm could make landfall anywhere between the Alabama port of Mobile and the Louisiana-Texas border, probably tomorrow night or early Thursday. It could threaten the large concentration of offshore oil production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Shell Oil was evacuating most of the 900 workers on its offshore platforms as a precaution. A substantial part of America's oil refining industry is concentrated on the Gulf coast, in Louisiana and Texas, and officials there were reviewing emergency plans to curtail or shut down plant operations. Andrew, the first Caribbean hurricane of the season, hit the eastern coast of Florida early yesterday, gusting up to 165mph. It ripped roofs off houses, smashed cars and trucks, snapped power lines and uprooted trees before heading out over the Gulf. A million people had been ordered to flee their homes in southern Florida as the hurricane moved in from the Bahamas on Sunday. The Florida Power and Light company said that about 1.2m of its customers, or 32 per cent, were without power. Some of the strongest winds were in the affluent suburb of Coral Gables, just south of Miami, where the National Hurricane Center is located. Its radar and satellite antennae were blown away. President Bush authorised federal disaster assistance for the affected areas and made plans for an inspection tour of the state. Picture, Page 14

southern florida;florida;new orleans;hurricane andrew;severe property damage;damage claims;insurance industry losses

FT923-7126

Commodities and Agriculture: Prospectors go for grand slam in diamonds - The latest rush is raising doubts about De Beers' cartel

IT IS ironic that there is an unprecedented, greedy rush for diamonds by miners in Angola and Canada precisely at a time when the diamond business is in turmoil and questions are inevitably being asked about the ability of the world's most successful cartel to keep its tight grip on the market. In Canada's Northwest Territories, the discovery of 81 small diamonds, some of gem quality, has sparked the biggest rush to stake mining claims in the history of the North American industry. Stakers are using helicopters because each claim area is so large and prospectors have claimed every piece of land within 300 km (185 miles) of the discovery. In spite of all this hectic activity, it is very unlikely that anyone will find enough big diamonds to make the development of Canada's first diamond mine worthwhile. The odds in favour of making a fortune are much better for the diamond hunters in Angola. More than Dollars 1m-worth of gem diamonds a day are being smuggled out of that country for sale in Antwerp. An estimated 50,000 private-enterprise diggers are at work already and their numbers are being swelled by 500 a day. This rise of illegal mining, particularly in the Cuango region, which produces 80 per cent of Angola's diamonds and some of its highest-quality gem stones, started in May, 1991, after the peace accord which allowed freedom of movement for the first time in 16 years. As well as experienced miners, many soldiers who could not find civilian jobs have made their way to the diamond areas. The onset of the dry season and the fall in river levels from the end of May this year has encouraged what De Beers, the South African group that dominates the world diamond business, describes as 'a sudden and unprecedented explosion in the supply of illicit Angolan diamonds reaching the market'. Even though there are so many diggers at work, questions are being asked about whether there might be more to this 'explosion.' Did Unita, Angola's rebel movement, build up a stockpile which is now being released? Is Endiama, Angola's state-owned diamond company, implicated in some way? In the murky world of diamond dealing such rumours abound. De Beers probably knows the answers because its intelligence network is remarkable. What is also remarkable is that all those scrambling for diamonds in Angola or dropping out of the skies to stake expensive claims in Canada take it for granted that the diamond cartel will be able to continue to keep prices up and make all their efforts worthwhile. The cartel has survived partly because nobody needs diamonds. They are composed of very hard carbon so they can be useful for drilling holes in tough material, but there are substitutes for this use. Gem diamonds are solely for decoration and serve no useful purpose. But the cartel has ensured that rough (uncut) diamond prices have risen steadily since the 1930s - even when in the depths of the 1981-86 recession the price of a top-quality, one carat gem diamond slumped in the retail market from Dollars 60,000 to Dollars 10,000. The cartel is organised by De Beers' London-based Central Selling Organisation, which markets about 80 per cent of the world's rough diamonds. Apart from De Beers' own production from Namibia and South Africa, the CSO handles rough gem diamonds from Angola, Australia, Botswana, Russia, Tanzania and Zaire. The CSO has been mopping up as many of the smuggled Angolan diamonds as possible to stop havoc being created in a business already suffering severely from soggy demand in the US and Japan, the two biggest markets, which share about two-thirds of demand between them. De Beers says that, because times are tough. it will probably have to cut its annual dividend payment for the first time since 1981. It has also told the producers to cut deliveries by 25 per cent - something the CSO contracts permit at times of stress. De Beers releases a controlled stream of rough diamonds to the market through 'sights' offered by the CSO ten times a year to about 160 selected buyers. They are offered boxes of diamonds, each worth between Dollars 500,000 and Dollars 25m. The contents are judged by the CSO to balance the requirements of the buyers with market demand. Buyers have either to accept all the diamonds or reject the box. Mr Harry Oppenheimer, whose family effectively controls both De Beers and its sister group, the Anglo American Corporation of South Africa, was defending the cartel again last week at the formal opening of the R1.1bn Venetia diamond mine in the Transvaal. 'The CSO does not, and could not, run a monopolistic system,' he said. 'In bad times like this, I sometimes wish that we could. The fact is that the level of world diamond production, which is carried on in many countries, cannot be controlled. Diamond prices cannot be fixed artificially but have to be set at a level which allows production and consumption to be equated. 'What the CSO for many years has done successfully, is to operate a buffer pool, stocking diamonds in bad times and liquidating its stocks when demand is in excess of the level of supply. In this way it has been able to preserve an essential degree of stability in the price of this ultimate luxury of gem diamonds, to the common advantage of producers, processors and consumers of this unique natural product.' All very altruistic. But De Beers makes huge profits from its diamond business - a record Dollars 1.24bn in 1990 and more than Dollars 1bn last year. The cartel nearly lost control of the market in the early 1980s. It was a time of galloping inflation, a weak dollar and low interest rates. Merchants, particularly in Israel, stockpiled diamonds on borrowed money as a hedge against inflation and when recession hit they had to dump diamonds faster than the Central Selling Organisation could mop them up. The CSO's diamond stocks, worth under Dollars 1bn in 1980 rose to Dollars 1.9bn by 1984. Hundreds of diamond investment trusts and traders were bankrupted at that time and Australia and Zaire challenged De Beers' near-monopoly. De Beers has taken good care that merchant stocks have never again been built for speculative reasons, frequently going to the banks, the potential financiers of stockpiling operations, to 'educate' them about the way the diamond market works. After the bust came boom.

diamond prices;world diamond business;diamond market;london-based central selling organisation;diamond sales;first diamond mine;canada;diamond hunters;diamond cartel;rough diamond production;greedy rush

FT931-11394

Clinton promises welfare task-force

PRESIDENT Bill Clinton yesterday promised to name a task-force within the next 10 days to reform the US social safety net of welfare programmes. He told the National Governors' Association that he was committed to 'ending welfare as we know it' with measures to finance expanded job training for the unemployed, matched by a requirement that people must do some kind of work for their welfare cheque. The president said he would focus on better implementation of the Family Support Act, a 1988 welfare reform based on the work of an NGA task-force which he, as governor of Arkansas, co-chaired. 'The bill that is on the books will work, given the right economy and the right support systems,' Mr Clinton said. Advocates of welfare reform had been discouraged about the new administration's intentions, fearing that the centrist Democratic emphasis on requiring welfare recipients to work or enroll for training might fall prey to left-wing advocacy groups concentrating on greater funding of existing programmes. These suspicions were enhanced when Ms Donna Shalala, new secretary of health and human services, last month devoted only one sentence to welfare reform in a five-page statement of goals. With the onset of the recession, state revenues have been constrained while the number of welfare recipients has grown by 30 per cent. As a result, few states have been able to implement in full the act's requirement that welfare recipients take part in some form of education or training. Mr Clinton promised yesterday his reforms would be based on the principle that 'welfare should be a second chance, not a way of life'. There must be 'a certain time beyond which people don't draw a cheque for doing nothing,' he said. But at the same time people must be helped out of the welfare trap by providing them with continued health coverage, child care, and expanded earned income tax credits when they took jobs. Many states have already embarked on far-reaching welfare reform programmes, such as Michigan's 21-point plan to strengthen families or New Jersey's family development programme. Mr Clinton said he would let states experiment with such programmes, even when he disagreed with them.

bill clinton;family support act;welfare reform;welfare programs;social safety net;president clinton

FT931-341

Survey of the Republic of Slovenia (1): The Balkans' lucky ones - Though the country has suffered economically from the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the war in the Balkans, independence has given its 2m inhabitants the opportunity to build an open market economy and democratic institutions

SLOVENES always had at least as much in common with their Alpine neighbours as with their Balkan partners in the former Yugoslavia. Since Slovenia's declaration of independence in June 1991, the gap between the peaceful, ethnically homogeneous new republic of 2m people and the war-impoverished rest of former Yugoslavia has widened inexorably. 'We have been very lucky,' says President Milan Kucan, the wily former communist who led Slovenia's drive for independence from the Serb- dominated federation. But he, like Mr Janez Drnovsek, the prime minister of Slovenia's three-pronged coalition government, makes clear that Slovenia suffers economically from the disintegration of Yugoslavia and would be one of the principal gainers from a resolution of the bloody Balkan imbroglio. 'Slovenia's southern border with Croatia has become the border between peace and war in Europe,' Mr Kucan declares. A glance at the map shows what he means. At its narrowest point, only a 46 km- long strip of Slovenian coast- line separates Italy from the rest of former Yugoslavia. Austria is insulated from the war-torn regions of Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, both once ruled by the Austrian Habs- burgs, thanks to its own 324 km-long border with Slovenia. But Slovenia would hate to be perceived merely as a convenient cordon sanitaire. The new Karavanke road tunnel beneath the Alps, completed just before the 10-day war between Slovenia and the Yugoslav army which immediately followed indep- endence, has underlined Slovenia's traditional importance as a transit route. The railways and the motorway leading south through the capital Ljubljana to the Slovenian port of Koper and its Italian neighbour Trieste carry freight and travellers heading to and from central Europe and the Adriatic sea. The highway is also thick with aid trucks and an ever-decreasing volume of 'normal' cargoes moving south-east towards Croatia. Independence has, above all, brought peace to Slovenia and left it free to implement the kind of rational market reforms and privatisation policies which remain blocked in the republics absorbed and impoverished by war further south. Economists, however, are quick to point out that independence has its costs. Slovenia, with its self- contained infrastructure and proximity to western markets, was always by far the richest republic of the former federation. Its per capita GDP of around Dollars 6,000 was three times higher than that of Serbia and five times that of Kosovo, the poorest region of the former Yugoslavia. Slovenia has always had a strong tourism industry of its own. But it also benefited from the overnight stays of foreign tourists heading further south to Croatia's Dalmatian coast. Now the once-thriving seaside hotels are filled with discons- olate refugees and Croatia's main source of hard currency income has disappeared. So have the transit tourists through Slovenia. Above all, Slovene enterprises were able to build up exports to the rest of Europe, thanks to the volume of sales they were able to make in Yugoslavia which virtually gave them a 22m strong domestic market. The UN embargo on trade with Serbia means both the loss of the largest of the former Yugoslav markets and an end to cheap Serbian raw materials and other inputs. These helped restrain costs and improve competitiveness in more demanding hard currency markets. Now Slovenia has to lower real wages and increase productivity in order to compensate. On the positive side of the balance sheet, however, the end of the federal state means that Slovenia no longer has to contribute over Dollars 1bn a year to finance the bloated Yugoslav army or see its hard currency deposits 'frozen' by the National Bank of Yugoslavia, as happened before independence. Relations with Croatia, Slovenia's southern neighbour, are generally good but they are complicated by three contentious issues. The first of these is the border itself, which is disputed in parts. The second issue contains Croatia's share of the running costs of the Krsko nuclear plant on Slovenian territory. The plant was built and financed jointly to supply electricity to both republics but financially hard-pressed Croatia is now reluctant to pay its share of the running costs. The third outstanding issue concerns compensation for the assets of Ljubljanska Banka in Croatia. There is no nostalgia for the old Yugoslavia, which Slovenes tried without success to trans- form into a looser confederal structure. But a mixture of compassion for the suffering of their fellow southern Slavs and economic loss ensures that the Slovene authorities, while categorically ruling out any possibility of resuming old political ties with former Yugoslavia, pray, without much hope, for a quick and lasting solution to the conflict and the resumption of normal economic ties. The war, with its violent and deliberate displacement of millions of people, has and is taking place in the ethnically mixed border lands of Croatia and Bosnia relatively distant from the Slovene border. Both Mr Kucan and Mr Drnovsek, who headed the old revolving Yugoslav state presidency for a year before negotiating the exodus of the federal army from Slovenia in July 1991, criticise the failure of the west to intervene more forcibly to stop at an early stage what Mr Kucan calls 'the war of aggression waged by Serbia.' The president is particularly scathing against what he calls the west's definition of the war in Bosnia as a civil or ethnic war. 'Of course the people who are dying do not care how it is defined. But for the inter- national community it is essential to define it as a war of aggression against a UN- recognised state and draw the appropriate conclusions. It is a tragedy that Bosnia's elected leader has now been reduced by the international com- munity to merely one of sev- eral ethnic leaders,' he adds. Preventing the war in parts of former Yugoslavia destabilising Slovenia and scaring off tourists remains a top priority for the new republic. The border with Croatia is now in effect sealed against further immigation after 70,000 refugees, equivalent to 3.5 per cent of the local population, were taken in. Refugees are housed and cared for by local authorities around the country, often in former Yugoslav army barracks, at an annual cost of around Dollars 250m. Many are expected to stay even after the war ends. Meanwhile, the coalition government which emerged from last December's elections to the national parliament and parallel presidential elections, is determined to use its four-year mandate to complete the transformation of the country into a fully-fledged, market-orientated, multi-party parliamentary democracy. At the core of the government is an alliance between the Liberal Democrats, headed by Mr Drnovsek, which emerged as the largest single party with 25 per cent of seats in parliament, and the Christian Democrats led by Mr Lojze Peterle, the foreign minister. But the coalition also includes the four party 'associated list', made up principally of reformed communists. This helps to give the coalition a wider parliamentary base. The inclusion of the 'left- wing' parties, with their traditional links to workers and the trade unions showed its value last month when they twice gave their assent to a new wages pact designed to reduce real incomes. Independent economists calculate that average real incomes have to fall around 10 per cent from current levels of around DM650 a month if the Slovenian economy is to compete effectively for new markets in the west and attract foreign investment. Both are needed to reverse the rise in unemployment and build on the structural reforms to the banking system and privatisation which are currently under way. The next four years will be crucial. But much has been achieved in the first 20 months of independence - including the establishment of a parliamentary democracy and a virtually convertible independent currency, the Slovene tolar, backed by strong reserves. The new republic is peaceful, internationally recognised and a member of the most important inter- national institutions. By the end of the century it wants to be eligible for full membership of an enlarged European Community. As elsewhere in the region, privatisation and other structural reforms are seen as laying the basis for the development of a self-confident middle class capable of ensuring that the democratic and economic reforms under way in Slovenia become irreversible.

former federation;privatisation policies;former yugoslavia;rational market reforms;independence;slovenian economy;slovene border;normal economic ties;slovene enterprises

FT931-3883

Government seeks to allay fear of 'mad cow' disease

GOVERNMENT veterinary and health experts were yesterday putting out reassuring messages about bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or 'mad cow' disease, in the face of growing public anxiety. Dr Kenneth Calman, the government's chief medical officer, yesterday repeated the official advice that beef can be eaten safely: 'There is no scientific evidence of a causal link between BSE in cattle and CJD in humans.' One cause of concern is that the number of cases is continuing to rise, in spite of forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture that the incidence of cases would peak last year and then decline rapidly. Farmers reported 8,581 animals with BSE during the first nine weeks of this year compared with 8,099 in the same period last year. Another fear is that BSE could cause illness in humans. It was revealed this week that Mr Peter Warhurst, a dairy farmer whose herd had a BSE case in 1989, died last year of Creutzfeld-Jacob disease. Both BSE and CJD are caused by mysterious particles of infectious protein called prions. Dr Robert Will of Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, who is monitoring all CJD cases in the UK for the Department of Health, drew attention to Mr Warhurst's case without naming him in the Lancet, a medical journal. He says he now regrets writing to the Lancet because of the unnecessary alarm caused. Statistical analysis, taking account of the average national incidence of CJD and the number of people working on BSE-affected dairy farms, shows that the probability of one CJD case having occurred among the latter group by chance is about 1 in 20. Even so, Dr Will believes that Mr Warhurst's disease was a coincidence not related to BSE exposure. His study has shown no change in the pattern of CJD since BSE started and no other cases among people working with cattle, such as abattoir staff or vets.

causal link;mad cow disease;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;cjd cases;infectious protein;public anxiety;bse case;scientific evidence

FT932-12322

World Bank pledges drive to cut poverty: Preston fails to respond to demands from Clinton to set more precise targets

MR Lewis Preston, World Bank president, yesterday promised to strengthen the bank's efforts to reduce poverty in developing countries. 'Poverty reduction must be the benchmark against which our performance as a development institution is judged,' he said. However, he failed to respond to demands from the Clinton administration for the bank to set more precise targets for the proportion of lending that should have an explicit poverty focus. In congressional testimony this week, Mr Lloyd Bentsen, US treasury secretary, said the US wanted to see more funding that 'will create social and economic safety nets' for poor people most affected by war, civil strife and economic mismanagement. 'We will look for specific increases in the share of lending going for these purposes.' In fiscal 1992, nearly half of all World Bank adjustment loans failed to include specific poverty reduction measures, in spite of calls from Mr Preston to put greater emphasis on poverty relief. The share of bank lending allocated for 'human resource development' is still only 14 per cent, in spite of repeated calls from Mr Preston for an increased emphasis on investment in people. At a news conference Mr Preston said the bank was making progress: a decade ago only 5 per cent of bank lending went for human resource development and only 5 per cent of structural adjustment loans had a explicit focus on poverty. But he said the bank had a 'long, long way to go'. While he expected an increase in the share of bank lending aimed at poverty relief, he declined to set precise targets for bank staff. Mr Preston, however, does intend to take several new steps to sharpen the bank's focus on poverty. The bank will publish annual progress reports charting its progress in poverty reduction. It will also seek the participation of the poor in the design as well as the implemention of projects. 'We want this to become the norm for our operations in the years to come,' Mr Preston said. He also released a report, 'Implementing the World Bank's Strategy to Reduce Poverty - Progress and Challenges,' that outlines progress to date. This highlights the diversity of performance on poverty reduction in the third world. East Asia has reduced the proportion of people in absolute poverty from over 30 per cent in 1970 to 10 per cent. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, had seen an increase in poverty which now affected half the people in the region. Mr Preston said bank efforts to reduce poverty could succeed only if governments concerned co-operated. Officials cited Indonesia, China, Mexico, and El Salvador as examples of countries that were co-operating well but declined to name poor performers. He said hoped for a clear signal from this week's meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrial countries that they would deliver on commitments for a Dollars 18bn replenishment of resources for the International Development Agency (IDA), the centrepiece of bank efforts to reduce poverty.

world bank;adjustment loans;developing countries;third world;lewis preston;bank lending;poverty relief;poverty reduction

FT932-5855

World Trade News: US Hispanic groups link Nafta support to side deals

KEY Hispanic groups in the US are making stringent side agreements, aimed at protecting worker rights and the environment, a condition of their support for the North American Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. Several Hispanic leaders said last week that the Clinton administration also had to present a 'blueprint' of a plan to retrain displaced workers before they would give their support. The announcement will deal a blow to supporters of Nafta, who counted on Hispanic backing to get the agreement through Congress. But the US Hispanic community is deeply divided over whether to endorse the agreement. Mr Richard Lopez, an aide to the congressional Hispanic caucus, said last week that differing opinion had prevented the group taking an official position on Nafta. Leaders of important Hispanic coalitions such as La Raza, a civil rights group, and the Southwest Voter Registration Project said they feared Hispanics in the US would bear the brunt of the negative impact of Nafta. 'The most competitive sectors on both sides of the border would win,' said Prof Raul Hinojosa, of the University of California in Los Angeles and a leader of the Southwest Voter Registration Project. 'Trade would produce job growth on both sides of the border, but the question is how those jobs are distributed. 'Those sectors of the US economy most vulnerable to import penetration are those sectors most dependent on recent immigration for their labour force.' Fifteen Hispanic organisations, including La Raza, propose to set up a trilateral North American Development Bank to direct resources to regions of the US, Mexico and Canada most affected negatively by Nafta. However, business organisations like the US Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and the Hispanic Trade Council are enthusiastic backers of the deal. Mr Abel Guerra of the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce said he feared side agreements dealing with issues on the environment and labour rights could jeopardise Nafta. 'It's a giant opportunity we can't let go to waste,' he said. At the other end of the spectrum lies Mr Segundo Mercado-Llorens of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union who is vehemently opposed to the current incarnation of Nafta. 'A vast majority of us (Hispanics) will be losers unless there are fundamental changes in the current Nafta,' he said.

hispanic community;key hispanic groups;north american trade agreement;trilateral north american development bank;worker rights;stringent side agreements;nafta;negative impact

FT933-10881

Nafta foes campaign on a shoestring

IN California, labour leaders, environmentalists and the 'Perotistas' supporting Mr Ross Perot have signed a Declaration of War against the North American Free Trade Agreement. The site of the signing ceremony in Sacramento sent a warning to the city's congressman, Mr Bob Matsui, one of the leading proponents of Nafta in the US House of Representatives. In Washington state, Nafta opponents wrote alternative menus for a dinner given for Mr Rufus Yerxa, the Deputy US Trade Representative. These featured the potential chemical content of the dishes if the free trade pact becomes a reality and allegedly toxic-laden Mexican produce floods into the US. Anti-Nafta crusaders drove caravans through Tennessee, California and Texas to mobilise opposition. Equipped as information centres, the vans cruised from town to town showing films and slides of the environmental degradation in Mexico. With just a shoestring budget - no more than Dollars 200,000 (Pounds 134,230) a year in cash - foes of Nafta have worked for three years to mount a massive campaign to win the hearts and minds of the American public. Nafta's US proponents - mostly the business community - are spending millions, bypassing the voters, to convince Congress to pass Nafta. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released last week showed 31 per cent of all Americans in favour of the pact, a slight increase from previous surveys, while 29 per cent are opposed. However, 63 per cent believe Nafta will cost US jobs. Although the Clinton administration weeks ago said it would appoint a 'Nafta czar' to shepherd the pact through Congress, it has yet to announce it has found anyone to take on the task. By contrast, the opposition has an 'anti-Nafta czar' in place and making speeches around the country. He is Mr Jim Jontz, a former Indiana congressman. Nafta foes have pooled their meagre resources to provide him with a campaign office, and field legislative directors. Forty-one states have been organised, and every two weeks the organisers hold long conference calls to plot strategies. Nafta foes around the country say their protests have persuaded congressman to back away from support of the deal. One California gubernatorial hopeful, Ms Kathleen Brown - sister of former Governor Jerry Brown - has been stalked by demonstrators, who even follow her to fundraising events. According to Mr Craig Merrilees, director of California's Fair Trade Campaign, Ms Brown has expressed doubt about the pact, along with the rest of the state's Democratic establishment. With the expected conclusion this week of the talks over side agreements on labour and environment, both sides are preparing to crank up their lobbying efforts. The opposition is not awaiting an announcement of the details, said Ms Lori Wallach, one of the opposition's leaders. The side pacts will be 'silly,' she said, 'It's the same old Bush Nafta with the supplementals used to create a fig-leaf.'

north american free trade agreement;environmental degradation;nafta foes;leading proponents;fair trade campaign;anti-nafta crusaders;side agreements;california;american public;nafta opponents;massive campaign;free trade pact

FT933-2760

World Trade News: Battle for hearts and minds over Nafta - Guerrilla tactics versus White House pomp and press machine

GUERRILLA tactics by Greenpeace were swamped by the White House pomp in which Mr Clinton and three past US presidents this week endorsed the North American Free Trade Agreement. But the environmental activists, who momentarily disrupted a House hearing to unfurl a 15 foot anti-Nafta banner, saw their stunt repeated again and again on evening news shows. With dozens of similar exploits and clever strategic planning, grassroots organisations have succeed in fanning anti-Nafta sentiment into widespread public hostility against the pact with Canada and Mexico. A new Wall Street Journal poll, found opposition, at 36 per cent, had reached its highest level yet with only 25 per cent of those polled in favour of Nafta. The continued economic sluggishness and the drumbeat of corporate layoff announcements have hurt the pact's chances and presented the administration with a formidable challenge. Fifty per cent of the Americans polled disagreed with the administration's argument that more jobs will be created than lost and 54 per cent said that wages would be forced downward so that US companies and workers could compete with Mexico. Pro-Nafta congressmen and senators have been morosely admitting the opposition's success in framing the debate against Nafta as a pact which would cost jobs. But they took heart from Tuesday's presidential show: President Clinton's passionate insistence that the realities of the global marketplace be faced; President Carter's attack on Mr Ross Perot, the populist billionaire, as a demagogue with 'unlimited financial resources,'; President Bush's praise of Mexican President Carlos Salinas; President Ford's warning that the country would be overrun by impoverished immigrants from the South if they are given no work at home. 'It was a revival,' said Texas Congressman JJ Pickle. 'I think Nafta was born again.' To keep the pro-Nafta case before the public, President Clinton Wednesday took off for New Orleans and top officials in his administration fanned out on speaking tours across the country. Government agencies have been mobilised for the battle, given pro-Nafta literature and instructed to boost the pact in seminars and public forums. Congressional committees have begun to examine the details in preparation for writing its implementing legislation, now expected on the Hill in November. It is believed this process may satisfy some of the Congressional doubters, who are demanding a 'level playing field' and a speedup of Mexican tariff reductions. Pro and anti-Nafta forces are keeping the fax lines burning. A Greenpeace release warned that two decades of work on environmental protection would be undermined if the pact is approved. In response to similar charges by hundreds of grassroots environmental, citizen and labour groups, Vice president Al Gore, Senator Max Baucus and other lawmakers with green credentials, accompanied by six leaders of the largest national environmental groups who helped negotiate the environmental side pact, held a briefing to praise Nafta's environmental safeguards. Seemingly unfazed by Nafta's new show of life, the Citizens Trade Campaign, one of the umbrella opposition groups, called a press conference to 'debunk' the Clinton Administration claim Nafta would create 200,000 jobs in the next five years. Unmindful of a television camera, its leaders plotted new strategies: anti-Nafta resolution in 25 state legislatures; a letter writing campaign and more. Notable by his absence from the fray has been Mr Richard Gephardt, the House Majority Leader, who is said to be close to moving from tentative to committed opposition. He will join forces with Congressman David Bonior, the majority whip, and three of Mr Bonior's lieutenants, leaving the House Speaker, Tom Foley, nearly alone on the defence, among the leadership. 'I do not think we have articulated well - the supporters of Nafta - the very positive and energetic reasons that can be offered for supporting this,' Mr Foley acknowledged. Without Nafta, the US relationship with Mexico could 'deteriorate,' and 'much of what people are worried about will happen, perhaps more speedily without Nafta than with it. Those things have to be presented more forcefully.'

environmental activists;house hearing;impoverished immigrants;environmental protection;president clinton;anti-nafta sentiment;pro-nafta case;widespread public hostility;north american free trade agreement

FT933-5709

World Trade News: Chicago back-room operator to sell Nafta - Laurie Morse on a Daley drafted in to lead ratification drive

THE MAN President Bill Clinton has chosen to head the task force to help get his free trade pact with Canada and Mexico ratified may lack experience in international trade arenas. But he comes to Washington well prepared for the kind of back-room political arm-twisting that will be required to persuade a divided Congress to pass it. William Daley is younger brother and chief adviser to Chicago's mayor Richard M Daley and offspring of the legendary Democratic machine 'Boss', the late Richard J Daley. Unlike his hot-tempered and very public brother, 45-year-old Bill Daley is a smooth-talking behind-the-scenes operator with important connections in Washington and long-standing ties with organised labour. He has never run for political office. Mr Daley accepted the Nafta position after being passed over for a cabinet position and turning down an offer to be Mr Clinton's chief negotiator at the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in Geneva. He chaired Mr Clinton's election campaign in Illinois, where he delivered 48 per cent of the vote to Clinton, above the national average, and continues as a tangible supporter. Most recently, he arranged a posh Chicago dinner for the president that raised Dollars 1m (Pounds 670,000). However, Mr Daley's appointment to chair the White House's task force on the North America Free Trade Agreement is not a cosy political payoff. Recent polls show that as many as two-thirds of the American people do not support Nafta, and grassroots opposition fuelled by labour groups is growing. Mr Clinton himself reserved his support for the deal, negotiated under George Bush's administration, until side agreements dealing with environmental and labour issues were reached last month. Many Democrats in Congress, including some in the powerful Illinois delegation, are uncommitted. With the agreement fated to unravel if it is not ratified by January 1, the battle for congressional support will be fierce, fast, and visible. Mr Daley was chosen for the job, Chicago observers say, because he has proven he can sway votes and is willing to take the risk of losing a controversial battle. 'Bill Daley is no Washington neophyte. Clinton needs someone with political sense to move this thing through Congress, and Daley has the connections,' says a fellow Washington lobbyist. Opposition to Nafta comes from core Democratic constituencies, making it a potential political pothole for Mr Clinton. Mr Daley's talents have been summoned, insiders say, to convince moderate Democrats to back the agreement. The president needs 218 votes in the House to ratify Nafta. The administration counts 125 Republicans in favour of the agreement. Clinton ally and fellow Chicago Democrat, Mr Dan Rostenkowski, chairman of the House ways and means committee, is expected to deliver the 20 Democrats on his committee. However, Mr Rostenkowski is under investigation for improper use of his post office perks and faces an uneasy future. By rough count, Mr Daley will have to marshall 73 votes from Democratic representatives of states standing to gain the most from the agreement: those along the border with Mexico and those with big agricultural, consumer product, or manufacturing export interests. His Chicago-style back-room muscle will be an invisible counterweight to the public tactics of Nafta's most prominent opponent, Mr Ross Perot. Mr Perot's populist anti-Nafta campaign touts the 'giant sucking sound' that will be heard as Nafta-loosened jobs flow south of the Texas border. 'It is a very interesting juxtaposition of styles,' says Chicago political commentator Mr Bruce DuMont. 'Bill Daley is like a Stealth bomber. You may not see him, but you'll see the results.' Mr Daley has taken four months out from his Chicago law firm to lead the Nafta push. He recently rejoined the firm after a three-year stint as president of the Amalgamated Bank of Chicago, which was founded by the Amalgamated Textile Workers union in 1922. Although it passed into private ownership in 1966, its board is still dominated by high-profile union officials. Mr Clinton may be banking on Mr Daley's union ties to help the Nafta effort. However, Mr Daley, by pushing Nafta, runs the risk of alienating his union supporters. Mr Jim Jontz, former congressman from Indiana and director of the anti-Nafta Citizen's Trade Campaign, said: 'I don't know why Bill Daley would want to be in a position like that. It's just wrong.'

north america free trade agreement;labor groups;president bill clinton;side agreements;grassroots opposition;congressional support;anti-nafta campaign;william daley;controversial battle;free trade pact

FT933-6011

Read Clinton's lips: No more welfare: America

President Bill Clinton's pledge to 'end welfare as we know it' was one of the most popular lines in last year's election campaign. His idea of a strict two-year time limit on welfare cheques appealed to voters (especially 'Reagan democrats') not just as a way of cutting government spending and thus reducing taxes, but as a solution to the nation's most pressing social problems. In the American mind, welfare has become synonymous with such evils as urban decay, fatherless children, drug abuse and violent crime. By promising radical welfare reform, Mr Clinton was sending a powerful subliminal message: he would wage war on all the diseases that are ravaging urban society. Since becoming president, Mr Clinton has barely mentioned the word welfare, raising fears that his grandiose promise will prove as cynical as former President George Bush's 'read my lips: no new taxes' pledge. The White House insists that welfare reform is not forgotten but has just had to take its turn behind two even more urgent priorities: the deficit reduction plan finally approved this month and the healthcare reform scheduled for September. It claims both measures will help shift people off welfare by 'making work pay.' The budget advanced this cause by expanding the earned income tax credit (a kind of negative income tax). This gives poor working families a cash bonus of up to Dollars 2,500 a year, increasing the incentive to take low paid jobs. If healthcare reform guarantees health insurance for all workers, welfare recipients will no longer be able to reject jobs on the grounds that they stand to lose their health care benefits. In addition, the administration promises to bolster the economic position of welfare mothers by strictly enforcing laws requiring absent fathers to support their children financially. Such measures should help. But they are hardly going to solve America's welfare problem, which differs substantially from that in Europe. In keeping with Franklin Roosevelt's dictum that a permanent dole is 'a narcotic, a subtle destroyer of the human spirit', the US has never provided permanent welfare support for single, able-bodied adults. When pundits talk of a 'culture of welfare' they are referring mainly to the Dollars 20bn spent on Aid for Families with Dependent Children, a benefit received by 5m single-parent families. The objection is not that some families in straitened circumstances need AFDC as a short-term prop, but that half of those on welfare behave as though they have a meal ticket for life. So what should Mr Clinton do? Many conservatives favour the concept of a strict time limit. Once people accept that benefits are not going to be paid indefinitely, they argue, behaviour will change. Teenagers will stop having babies and start recognising the economic advantages of marriage. Those whose welfare benefits expire will face a stark choice: accept low-paid employment or hand over children for adoption. At first the adjustment will be horribly painful but in the longer term society will gain enormously because destructive lifestyles will no longer be underwritten. With its economic life support system (welfare) ripped away, the underclass will shrivel. But no modern president would contemplate so brutal a social experiment. If welfare stops, something has to take its place. One suggestion is that Mr Clinton should follow the example of Roosevelt's Works Progress Administration, an agency that at its peak created over 3m public sector jobs. After two years, welfare cheques would thus be replaced by the offer of a government job at slightly below the private sector minimum wage. Mothers with young children would also be offered state child care facilities. According to one advocate, this would amount to replacing the welfare state by the 'work ethic state'. This solution is more appealing than a mere cessation of benefits. But it would involve a huge expansion of public sector employment and cost perhaps Dollars 50-60bn a year, far more than the Clinton administration is willing to spend on welfare reform. Fortunately there is a fall back position for Mr Clinton: the bipartisan Family Support Act of 1988, which he helped steer through Congress. This recognised the impossibility of ending welfare overnight and instead set targets for the gradual introduction of 'workfare'. Next year states will receive federal assistance only if they ensure that at least 15 per cent of the 'employable' welfare case load is working or in training programmes; by 1995 the required ratio rises to 20 per cent. These seemingly undemanding targets require a much larger fraction of the welfare population to take jobs at some point during the year. Mr Clinton could tighten the definition of 'employable', so as to include mothers with children under the age of three, and set more demanding workfare participation targets, for example that 50 per cent of welfare recipients should be working or in training by the year 2000. Such a gradualist approach would be both humane and cost effective. The only trouble is that it falls far short of the presidential promise to 'end welfare as we know it'. Like Mr Bush, Mr Clinton may have raised expecta-tions that simply cannot be met.

deficit reduction;president bill clinton;welfare reform;welfare problems;welfare benefits;healthcare reform;federal assistance

FT933-8272

Technology: An outbreak of conflicting opinions - Despite assurances that BSE is waning, there is new concern about the epidemic

The epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy or 'mad cow' disease - which has killed more than 100,000 animals in the UK - is causing a new wave of public concern. New cases are still running at almost 1,000 a week and last month a second dairy farmer died of Creutzfeld-Jacob Disease, a brain disorder similar to BSE. Richard Lacey, a microbiology professor at Leeds University and the leading critic of government policy on BSE, said the deaths this year of two farmers whose herds had suffered from mad cow disease could not be put down to chance. He believes that BSE can trigger human brain disease. 'Our worst predictions are coming true,' he said. 'I find it unbelievable that the government and their hand-picked advisers can go on telling the public there is no danger.' The advisers, led by the government's chief medical officer Kenneth Calman and chief veterinary officer Keith Meldrum, put out a detailed statement to justify their view that last month's death of 65-year-old Duncan Templeman - following that of Peter Warhurst, 61, a year ago - showed 'no features that give cause for undue concern'. The official view is that the deaths are an unfortunate coincidence, even though it is statistically unlikely that two dairy farmers should contract a disease as rare as CJD. Robert Will of Edinburgh's Western General Hospital, who has been monitoring CJD in the UK since 1990 on behalf of the health department, calculated that there was only a five per cent probability of even a single case occurring by chance among dairy farmers with BSE-affected herds. One argument put forward by the health department is that CJD has such a long incubation period - typically 10 to 20 years - that clinical symptoms would not yet have appeared, even if BSE had triggered any cases of CJD. 'Since the illness of the cows (in Templeman's herd) and the patient occurred within months of each other, the animals and the patient had presumably incubated disease in parallel for some years,' the health department said. 'It is most unlikely therefore that there is any direct link between the cases of BSE and the occurrence of disease in the patient.' Another reassuring argument is that both farmers showed clinical features typical of the 'sporadic form' of CJD - of unknown cause - that usually occurs in late middle age. The handful of patients known to have developed CJD through infection (from contaminated human growth hormone) showed a different pattern of symptoms. The second annual report of Will's National CJD Surveillance Unit in Edinburgh, published last month, shows what looks at first sight like a disturbing rise in incidence: from 32 UK cases in the year ended April 1991 to 37 in 1991/92 and 46 in 1992/3. But the report says that this is not statistically significant and is probably due to increasing awareness of CJD (some cases were previously attributed to Alzheimer's or other forms of dementia). Meanwhile, cattle are succumbing to BSE at a rate of about one per 100 every year. The epidemic continues to defy the ministry of agriculture's predictions that it is about to wane; so far this year there have been 26,695 reported cases, compared with 25,898 to the same date last year. The source of infection was protein-rich cattle feed contaminated with scrapie, a related brain disease of sheep. Although sheep-derived feeds were banned from sale in 1988, farmers apparently continued to use existing stocks for longer than the ministry had expected. The incubation period is also longer than originally expected. Veterinary experts say that almost all of the 102,000 confirmed BSE cases so far can be attributed to scrapie-contaminated feed. According to their investigations, maternal transmission from cow to calf - which would prolong the epidemic - is very rare or non-existent. Scientists trying to understand the epidemic face an unusual problem: BSE, scrapie and CJD are caused by a bizarre, infectious agent, the prion, which does not follow the normal rules of microbiology. Recent research shows that the prion is an abnormal form of a protein that is normally present in the brain (though its normal function is not yet known). Unlike viruses and bacteria, prions contain no genetic material of their own. The prion may arise by a genetic mutation (spontaneous or inherited) in the host animal. Or - in the case of BSE - it may arrive from another animal. Once in place in the victim's brain, it catalyses what John Collinge, a prion researcher at St Mary's Hospital Medical School, London, called a slow 'chemical chain reaction', converting the normal protein into its own abnormal form. The prion molecule is folded in a way that makes it extremely stable and therefore difficult to destroy by conventional sterilisation. Experiments show that BSE can be transmitted between species, for example from cow to monkey, by injecting or eating large amounts of infected tissue. But 'transmission is dose dependent,' Collinge says. Most independent experts maintain that no human being - dairy farmer or beef eater - is likely to be exposed to BSE in sufficient quantities to develop brain disease.

scrapie-contaminated feed;mad cow disease;public concern;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;human brain disease;bse;maternal transmission;epidemic

FT933-8941

Commodities and Agriculture: Investors sought for Zimbabwe diamond mine

INVESTORS are being asked to provide money for a diamond mine near the River Limpopo in Zimbabwe, which De Beers, the South African group that dominates the diamond business, discovered but then let get away. The mine is River Ranch, 12km upstream from Beitbridge on the southern border of Zimbabwe. De Beers found diamonds there in 1975 but decided to concentrate instead on another site 60km away and, importantly, given the heat generated by the politics of the region, across the border in South Africa. After an investment of Dollars 500m that site went into production as Venetia, one of the world's biggest diamond mines. The South African group eventually gave up its rights to River Ranch in 1991 after it failed to reach agreement with the Zimbabwe government about marketing the diamonds. The government insists that all minerals are sold through its state-controlled Minerals Marketing Corporation. Mr Robin Baxter-Brown, chairman of Redaurum Red Lake Mines, one of the new joint owners of River Ranch, said yesterday that De Beers bulldozed the site before leaving. Also, all documentation about the deposit has mysteriously disappeared from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines. (A De Beers official said equipment would usually be removed from a site before it was abandoned but he could neither confirm nor deny that River Ranch had been bulldozed.) Mr Baxter-Brown is a South African geologist who started his career with De Beers and has 36 years of diamond exploration experience. He helped Auridiam, an Australian-quoted company that he co-founded and where he was once chairman, win the mining rights to River Ranch when they were put up for tender by the Zimbabwe government in 1991. The deposit is estimated by the joint venturers to have resources of 17.5m tonnes containing 5m carats of diamonds, and since mining started in March last year it has produced 43,000 carats of diamonds, 60 per cent of them of gem quality, Mr Baxter-Brown said. Redaurum, which is quoted in Toronto, is raising CDollars 1.5m (Pounds 780,000) net of expenses via a placing by London stockbrokers Carr Kitcatt & Aitken to help boost annual output from the present rate of 50,000 carats to 330,000 carats. The increase will be reached in two phases. The first, costing USDollars 2.1m, will raise output to 180,000 carats next year, while the second will cost Dollars 8.7m. The partners have spent about Dollars 850,000 to buy and move a heavy minerals separation plant recently decommissioned at the RTZ Corporation's diamond mine near Mafikeng, 500km away. The joint venturers have exclusive exploration rights to 13,474 hectares of ground around the mine and Mr Baxter-Brown suggested the chances of finding another diamond deposit were good. While most of River Ranch's gem diamonds are small, typically under half a carat, the mine has yielded some big stones, the biggest so far being 29.6 carats. A 28-carat stone was sold for Dollars 110,000 or Dollars 4,000 a carat, and one of 17 carats for Dollars 95,000 (Dollars 6,000 a carat). Diamonds are being sold directly to the market in Antwerp, Belgium, and not through De Beers' Central Selling Organisation, which controls about 80 per cent of the world rough (uncut) diamond trade. But as Mr Baxter-Brown pointed out: '330,000 carats a year is no threat to De Beers.'

diamond deposit;joint venturers;diamond trade;diamond mines;exclusive exploration rights;south african group;central selling organisation;diamond exploration experience;diamond business;river ranch;zimbabwe government

FT934-10911

Party loyalties do not apply: The stakes are high in the battle to guide Nafta through the US Congress

'They'd sell off bits of the White House lawn for a vote if they could' - Jim Jontz, head of the Fair Trade Campaign against Nafta 'It's one president, all the living former presidents, 41 governors, 14 Nobel Laureates and 284 economists versus Perot, Buchanan and Brown; it's your choice' - Mickey Kantor, US trade representative Barring the unforeseen, the latest addition to the matriarchy of all political battles will be finally decided on November 17 when 258 Democrats, 175 Republicans, and one independent in the 435-member House of Representatives (there is one vacant seat) vote on whether to approve the North American Free Trade Agreement linking the US, Mexico and Canada on January 1. A simple majority of 218 is all that is needed. If it passes, the Senate will almost certainly follow suit; if it fails, the upper chamber does not have to act. The stakes are enormous - for the political credibility of President Bill Clinton early in his term and for the legacy of President Carlos Salinas as he nears the end of his, for the evolution of the Mexican and US economies, and for a global trading structure in which a Uruguay Round agreement scheduled to be reached by December 15 may be unattainable if Nafta goes down. Conventional party lines are irrelevant in the intense retail political war now going on in pursuit of the 218-vote nirvana. More Republicans, perhaps as many as 120 according to congressman Jim Kolbe of Arizona, far fewer according to Mr Jim Jontz, a former congressman from Indiana, will vote for than against, not least because the original Nafta was negotiated by the Bush administration. This leaves Mr Clinton needing at most 40 per cent of his own party to triumph - and therein lies the problem. For the Democratic coalition that just - by one vote - sustained the president in the great budget battle against unanimous Republican opposition, is in tatters. In July it was the 'new' Democrats, especially moderates from the south, who deserted Mr Clinton while the old liners - labour, liberals, blacks - held their noses and held fast. On Nafta, the positions are in good measure reversed. According to Ms Lori Wallach, a leading co-ordinator of the 'anti-' campaign, the 'no' camp already numbers 208-210 'including some leaners'. Bill Daley, drafted from his Chicago domain to direct the 'yes' campaign, disputes this estimate, counts about 195 in favour and says that some 55 Democrats are still undecided. Mr Jontz disagrees, reckoning there are now more Republicans than Democrats on the fence. He thinks the freshman class - 66 Democrats and 48 Republicans - is particularly resistant to Nafta. Both sides hail and blast each new convert. Democrat John Dingell of Michigan came out for the 'noes' this week, but Mr Daley counters that he could never understand why anybody thought he would do anything different. Ms Wallach is equally dismissive of the impact of the 'yes' declarations of Democrats Joe Kennedy from Massachusetts and Esteban Torres from California. The latter, she insists, probably could not carry the 18-member Hispanic caucus. The politics of Nafta have produced uneasy dalliances among political heavyweights. In one bed lie the president, the Republican leadership, including Newt Gingrich, a fervent conservative, the Senate majority leader, the Speaker of the House, most leaders of big business, and some prominent environmental groups: in the other can be found the House majority leader (Richard Gephardt) and most of the Democratic House whips, including David Bonior of Michigan, the chief anti-Nafta strategist, plus Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate, most of the labour unions, Pat Buchanan, the right-wing ideologue, and Ross Perot, last year's independent presidential candidate. Ms Wallach, who portrays the Nafta divide as one between 'populists and the elites', says there is little top-level contact with Mr Perot, who first spoke of the 'giant sucking sound' of US jobs going south to Mexico, but that his troops offer access to conservatives and small businesses. Mr Daley says that 'Perot's credibility is diminishing because he has become a politician', an assessment borne out by several recent opinion polls. Both sides agree that the role played by President Clinton himself is crucial. 'He is my number one worry - never underestimate the power of the presidency,' says Ms Wallach. He got off to a slow start. In the summer he was consumed by the budget, and more recently distracted by healthcare, Haiti and Somalia. Meanwhile the opposition was off and running early. The administration pinned a lot of its midsummer hopes on Nafta's 'side agreements', covering Mexican environmental and labour laws and guarding against import 'surges', meeting most objections. But these were only completed in mid-August, later than planned, and were only partly successful. Six prominent US environmental groups came out in favour, but union opposition became entrenched. Most important, Congressman Gephardt, whose backing could probably have ensured passage, declared he was not satisfied. Mr Daley insists it does not matter that the president started late because 'in politics, decisions are only taken in the last few days'. Whatever the merits of this argument, there is no questioning that the pro-Nafta campaign is now in full swing, with plans that Mr Clinton himself do little other than argue for the agreement in the next two weeks. Every day brings a new media show. Last week saw Products Day on the White House lawn, a display of 175 goods that would benefit from Nafta. Last weekend the president went to Boston to maintain that JFK would have been pro-Nafta. On Monday he appeared at an electronic 'town meeting' with members of the American Chamber of Commerce. Later this week he is in Louisville, Kentucky. On Sunday an hour-long TV interview is scheduled. About twice a week he has 15-20 congressmen in his office for a Nafta exhortation. He works the phones constantly, and all members of his cabinet are fully engaged, sometimes inventively. Mr Kantor's latest pitch is that Japan is against Nafta and would, along with Europe, seek to profit from its defeat. The Nafta 'war room', operating out of the Old Executive Office building next to the White House, co-ordinates it all and makes sure that businessmen keep up the pressure on individual members. Certain actions, both substantive and personal, get taken with Nafta in view. Last week's creation of the North American Development Bank, with its funds available for border clean-up, obviously helped Congressman Torres come off the fence.

president bill clinton;fair trade campaign;side agreements;intense retail political war;democratic coalition;anti-nafta strategist;political battles;global trading structure;pro-nafta campaign;jim jontz;north american free trade agreement

FT934-11014

States win approval for welfare reform plans

THE US administration has given the go-ahead for pilot plans to reform welfare benefits in Wisconsin and Georgia that could serve as experiments for the broader overhaul of the welfare system promised by President Bill Clinton. The Wisconsin plan would cut off cash payments under the principal welfare programme, known as Aid to Families with Dependent Children, after two years, although it would continue to provide food stamps and health coverage. The pilot scheme will be started in two counties in 1995. Republican Governor Tommy Thompson has made Wisconsin a pioneer in welfare reform, with experiments such as Schoolfare, which cuts welfare payments to teenage mothers who do not go to school. In Georgia, the state does not plan a time limit on benefits, but wants to reduce welfare payments to able-bodied adults who refuse offers of work and deny increases in payments to families on long-term welfare who have more children. The federal government, which has to grant waivers to states wishing to depart from normal US welfare rules, is also considering proposals from Florida and Vermont for time limits on welfare benefits, and White House officials have said that a two-year limit will be a central feature of Mr Clinton's own welfare reform plans. The promise to 'end welfare as we know it' was an important theme in Mr Clinton's election campaign. Although he named a welfare reform task force in June, the reform has been held up by delays in passing the budget and is now expected to be delayed until the ambitious reform of the healthcare system has passed Congress.

wisconsin;president bill clinton;welfare reform;clinton administration;food stamps;healthcare reform;georgia;welfare plans

FT934-12800

Welfare versus wealth of nations: Governments are anxious to cut the cost of pensions, healthcare and benefit payments

The welfare state, the glue that binds the social fabric of the world's advanced capitalist economies, is coming unstuck. The immediate cause is its increasing cost at a time when budget deficits burden most of the 24 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Rising welfare spending has been a significant factor in the average increase in net state borrowing of 3 percentage points of GDP across the OECD between 1989 and 1992. In the longer term, there are fears that the cost of the welfare state could become insupportable as populations age over the next 50 years. While short-term measures may ease the immediate budgetary pressures, more fundamental reforms will be needed if the welfare state is not to undermine the economic performance that has underpinned its enormous expansion since the second world war. Reform of national welfare systems to bring costs under control is now on the political agenda throughout the OECD, as countries struggle to rein in government spending. Total government spending in the OECD countries has risen from 28.1 per cent of GDP in 1960 to 43.8 per cent in 1990. The biggest element in this growth has been the cost of pensions, healthcare, unemployment benefits and family support. Social security payments more than doubled during this period, from 7 per cent of GDP to 15.4 per cent. Health expenditure also doubled, from 3.9 per cent to 7.8 per cent. The largest single budget item in most welfare states is the cost of publicly provided pensions. Expenditure has risen rapidly in recent decades, more than doubling its average share of GDP in OECD countries since 1960. Pensions typically account for about a quarter of the increase in public expenditure over this period. The growth is largely attributable to three factors: The increase in coverage as pension schemes introduced after the second world war mature. The rise in the number of elderly people. Improvements in pension benefits, such as automatic increases to match rising earnings. The maturing of the welfare state is also a significant factor in the doubling of health expenditure since 1960. Countries such as Spain, Ireland and the Netherlands have been extending their public healthcare systems to provide universal coverage. As with pensions, health systems have become more generous in the wake of economic growth - for example, including grafts and transplants that were previously regarded as experimental. The ageing of the population has also contributed to rising costs, though not as much as for pensions. Rising unemployment has added to the cost of the welfare state in both unemployment benefits and general family support for low-income families. But it has also helped to push up the budget for sickness and invalidity benefits, which often offer an escape route into early retirement for older workers. Most OECD countries have recognised the need to curb growth in these main areas of welfare spending during the 1980s, and have introduced policies to tackle the underlying causes. For example, governments have become much less willing to offer improvements in pensions. Moves are afoot in countries such as Germany and Italy to raise the pension age. Automatic indexation of pensions to earnings has been weakened in Germany and ended altogether in the UK for the basic flat-rate pension. Healthcare systems have been reformed to make them more efficient and to bear down on the cost of pharmaceuticals. Although there are considerable differences between national health systems, healthcare reforms in countries such as the UK and the Netherlands are increasingly converging on models that use competition and price incentives to control costs. Many countries have also begun to tighten up on unemployment benefits, with reductions in benefit levels and more rigorous conditions to qualify. Active labour market policies have been introduced to promote a return to employment. Some countries have succeeded in stabilising their welfare costs by measures such as these. But what most concerns those responsible for public finances is the strength of underlying pressures on welfare spending that will push costs upwards in the future. The most important of these is demography. Increases in life expectancy have already increased the number of elderly people collecting pensions. The number of over-65s in the 24 OECD member states rose from 61m in 1960 to more than 100m in 1990. The growth is accelerating, with the number projected to rise to more than 115m in 2000, 131m in 2010 and 156m by 2020. Only halfway through the 21st century will the number of over-65s peak, at about 190m. The strain that this will put on the welfare state can best be seen by relating it to expected trends in the number of people of working age. The standard measure for this is the age dependency ratio, the population over 65 as a percentage of the population aged 15-64. For the OECD as a whole, the age dependency ratio is predicted to rise from about 19 per cent in 1990 to 28 per cent by 2020 and 37 per cent by 2040. Some countries face much greater pressures from the ageing of their populations than others. Germany and Japan, for example, will both have age dependency ratios of 34 per cent by 2020 - one person over the age of 65 for every three people between 15 and 64. By 2040, almost half of Germany's population could be over 65, though the proportion will fall thereafter. Age dependency ratios will climb more slowly in the UK and US, to about 25 per cent in 2020 - four people of working age to support every elderly person. In both countries, ratios will peak at about 33 per cent in 2040. The most immediate impact of these demographic changes will be on pensions, where costs will in any case rise as pension schemes continue to mature. Overall, the OECD estimates that the pension burden could double over the next 50 years. Real economic growth rates of up to 1.5 per cent a year would be needed to pay for pensions alone - and that on the assumption that the pensions do not increase in real terms. In practice, increasing pensions in line with prices might be difficult to sustain if earnings rose faster. The growing gap between pensioners and those still at work that would result could be politically unacceptable. However, raising pensions by more than prices would either require much higher growth rates or higher taxes for those in work to pay the bill. The impact of an ageing population on healthcare costs is less clear-cut. Experts differ on whether increased longevity inevitably means more medical care: while more might be required for the very elderly, less might be needed for younger people as chronic diseases become less common. Additional costs of new drugs and advances in medical technology could be at least as important as demography in pushing up healthcare bills. However, there will be an increase in demand for geriatric care and social services for the elderly.

budget deficits;welfare costs;healthcare reforms;welfare reform;national welfare systems;president clinton

FT934-13350

World Trade News: US ready to back Nafta bank - White House steps up campaign on pact with aid for affected communities

THE Clinton administration will soon announce support for a North American Development Bank, which would fund projects in communities hit by job losses resulting from the North American Free Trade Agreement. The so-called NADBank has been strongly supported by Congressman Esteban Torres, who has insisted on some sort of lending institution to support adjustment throughout the continent. Agreement by the administration is expected to bring Mr Torres and at least 7 other Hispanic congressmen into the pro-Nafta fold. The administration believes it can garner 200-210 pro-Nafta votes, out of the 218 needed. It is assuming that every undecided congressman only wants a reason - favourable constituent mail - to vote for the pact, and it is pushing feverishly to turn anti-Nafta public opinion around. The White House 'war room' believes the vote currently breaks down into 110 Republicans in favour, 65-75 Democrats in favour; and 20-30 leaning towards it. Under this hopeful scenario, the White House will use the last few days before the November 17 House vote to cajole, bargain and twist arms to get the remaining 8 votes. However the anti-Nafta forces expect a different outcome. They count 190-200 Democrats against, 10-15 Democrats leaning against, and 5-10 Republicans opposed. The pro-Nafta campaign this week began moving into high gear. State by state, undecided congressmen are being lured to the White House for intimate briefings, as are business leaders and journalists. Members of the cabinet are being sent to congressional districts, where they visit and publicise factories that are expected to gain jobs if Nafta passes. President Bill Clinton on Wednesday gave his second impassioned speech on Nafta at an exhibit on the White House lawn of products likely to benefit from Nafta. He envisioned continent-wide free trade 'when we'll have over 700m people in this trading bloc, united in believing that we can help one another grow and flourish,' he said. The Nafta opposition has been just as busy. Across town, the AFL-CIO trade union grouping on Wednesday had its own products exhibit, but those were likely to be hurt by Nafta. The speakers were workers who had lost their jobs when their employers moved to Mexico.

undecided congressman;house vote;job losses;president bill clinton;pro-nafta votes;clinton administration;anti-nafta public opinion;north american development bank;pro-nafta campaign;north american free trade agreement

FT934-5781

Guns 'n' poses: George Graham examines an important victory for US advocates of tougher firearms laws

The smoke has cleared a little. After seven long years, the US Congress this week passed its first significant gun control law since the assassinations of Mr Robert Kennedy and Rev Martin Luther King Jr in 1968. The legislation - known as the Brady bill after Mr James Brady, the former White House press secretary severely wounded in an assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan - would impose a five-day waiting period on purchases of handguns. It would give law enforcement authorities time to check the buyer's background. Advocates of tougher controls on guns were jubilant about their victory over stubborn resistance by Republican senators from western states such as Idaho and Alaska, who have long opposed any restriction on gun ownership in the US. The Brady bill's opponents in Congress say it will inconvenience only law-abiding citizens, not criminals who buy or steal their weapons away from the government's prying eyes. They point to glaring failings in the federal government's policing of the 276,000 licensed gun dealers in the US as evidence of the Brady bill's likely ineffectiveness. For instance, one newspaper reporter successfully obtained a dealer's licence for his dog by submitting a made-up social security number. Studies of state laws requiring some form of background check suggest, however, that at least some sales to convicted felons have been stopped, and some suspected criminals have been caught when they tried to buy a gun. But even the most ardent supporters of the Brady bill acknowledge that it will make no more than a dent in the estimated 7.5m legal sales each year of new or used firearms, let alone the approximately 200m guns in circulation; and will barely affect the more than 14,000 murders and 1,400 accidental deaths involving guns each year. 'The longest journey begins with a single step,' Mr Brady said after the bill's final passage in the Senate on Wednesday. Despite its uncertain effect, passage of the Brady bill is read by some as a sign that the tide has turned decisively in favour of gun control. Other initiatives in Congress and in state legislatures are under way: the Senate last week agreed in a separate bill to ban assault weapons, a measure already in force in California, New Jersey and Connecticut. Virginia has passed a law restricting people to one gun purchase a month. With the federal government considering the imposition of punitive taxes on some particularly devastating types of ammunition, the Winchester company recently decided to withdraw its Black Talon bullet. This is prized by some game hunters for its killing power but detested by emergency room doctors for the damage it inflicts on humans as it mushrooms on impact. The strength of public feeling about rampant gun use has clearly grown in the face of an apparently unstoppable wave of urban violence that has brought the rate of death by shooting among young black men to more than 150 per 100,000, and led to the installation of metal detectors in city schools. The fear of violent crimes such as carjackings and drive-by shootings has spread even beyond the inner city and into the suburbs and the countryside, provoking a widespread feeling that something - anything - must be done. The message from an outraged public is not, however, unequivocally in favour of gun control. Paradoxically, while thousands of people have been telephoning their Republican senators to demand that they stop blocking the Brady bill, thousands have also been flocking to join the National Rifle Association, the leading organisation among the pro-gun lobbies. In the past year and a half, it has gained 1,000 members a day to bring its total, which had declined to about 2.6m in 1991, to a record of about 3.3m. Many new members and gun owners are women. Recent election results have shown, too, that simply being tough on guns is not enough to woo the voters. Although Democratic Governor Jim Florio of New Jersey came close to victory in the gubernatorial race this month by striking a tougher stance on both guns and crime in general than his Republican challenger, Mrs Christine Todd Whitman, this was not enough. Voters were swayed by economic considerations and particularly by his first-term tax increase. In Virginia, meanwhile, Ms Mary Sue Terry, the Democratic candidate for governor, relied in her campaign on gun control and was thrashed by Mr George Allen, her Republican opponent, who did not favour tighter curbs but promised to be tough on criminals by abolishing parole. While such results do not indicate that the NRA has been routed, they have put the association on the defensive. Most members now favour some form of gun control, but the core membership opposes all restraints on the sale of firearms. Their beliefs are rooted in an almost theological - some would say fanatical - interpretation of the second amendment to the US constitution, which states that: 'A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.' 'The second amendment is not about duck-hunting. In the 1990s, it is about self-defence,' says Mr James Jay Baker, the NRA's chief Washington lobbyist. To many members, the right to self-defence is not just against muggers or burglars, but against a tyrannical government. Mr Neal Knox, sacked from a lobbying position with the NRA in the 1980s but now one of its elected directors, argues that the second amendment is the citizen's 'freedom insurance plan' against tyranny. Mr Knox says the Holocaust would not have happened if Europe's Jews had owned rifles, and if the Nazis had not been able to confiscate guns, thanks to gun registration laws passed in the 1930s. He also contends that the solution to Somalia's problems is to arm Somali mothers with AK-47s. Such beliefs have led the NRA to campaign against restrictions on machine guns, assault weapons and armour-piercing bullets. In the process they have lost touch with many of their members, who back gun control in general and specifically the Brady bill. Two trends over the past few years have weakened the advocates of gun rights. First, left-wing Democrats have begun to champion gun control as a supplement to tough anti-crime measures, rather than an alternative; they have recaptured much of the 'tough on crime' high ground by backing boot camps for young delinquents, harsher sentences and stiffer restrictions on parole or habeas corpus appeals. The NRA is trying to fight back with a campaign called CrimeStrike, calling for harsher measures against criminals. Second, the NRA's insistence on combating any gun control, even that viewed as reasonable by a majority not just of the US population but of gun-owners, has driven away some former political and police supporters. Senator Denis DeConcini of Arizona, once voted the NRA's 'legislator of the month', is backing a ban on assault weapons. Delegate Clinton Miller of the Virginia state assembly, once rated 'A+' by the NRA, now calls the organisation's top members 'hateful, spiteful, arrogant'. This alienation is apparent among gun-owners at large.

gun control law;complete ban;restriction;gun ownership;brady bill;us congress;gun purchase

FT934-8628

Virginian congressmen feel the Nafta heat: Nancy Dunne sees protesters trying to influence the vote on Wednesday

IN VIRGINIA the North American Free Trade Agreement evokes a passionate opposition, but football, apparently, still is the reigning obsession. A 'not this Nafta' rally on Saturday provided little competition for the college 'game of the century' - Florida State University against Notre Dame. Only 115 demonstrators turned out amid the autumn foliage in the grounds of Virginia's capitol in Richmond. They came promptly at two in the afternoon and by three most were gone. The organisers said they were sending a message to Virginia's three wavering congressmen that a 'yes' vote on Nafta in the House on Wednesday would be 'remembered in November'. That is, next November's mid-term elections, when those assembled - mostly followers of Texas billionaires of Mr Ross Perot and union members - would unite to throw the rascals out of office. 'We are absolutely for free trade,' says Mr Bill Diggitt, the state director of Mr Perot's United We Stand. 'But Nafta undermines our constitution. It puts decision-making in the hands of international panels, which undermines our judicial system.' He says he is concerned about the loss of Virginia's tax base as companies move production to Mexico and place continuous downward pressure on wages. 'The administration is selling everything it can to every congressman it can. That's wrong,' he says. Mr Josh Greenwood, owner of a small hydroelectric company, says: 'I might run against my congressman myself.' Mexican workers are treated like slaves, he claims. 'In Virginia there was slavery, but the slaves were expensive and the people who owned them valued them. They had better housing and better sanitary conditions than the workers in Mexico today. The babies of the slaves weren't born with brain damage from concentrated pollution.' Virginia has 11 congressmen. Three have joined the anti-Nafta forces; five have declared themselves in favour of the pact. The three undecided have found themselves in the eye of a lobbying whirlwind. Mr Greenwood's congressman, Norman Sisisky, spent Friday meeting groups from both sides. 'He is trying to sort through the misleading information,' says his press secretary. As a member of the House armed services committee he expects the foreign policy implications of the Nafta vote to weigh heavily in his decision. This argument carried little weight at Saturday's rally. Mr Ralph Dombrower, a Perot devotee, brought the results of an interactive computer poll showing a growing isolationism among American voters. 'The public is becoming less inclined to see the US as arbiter of worldwide human behaviour and wishes to get out of our foreign policy involvements,' he says. The Virginia business community began a pro-Nafta lobbying effort last March. 'The unions had gotten to everyone. We were going against a tide of misinformation,' says Ms Kathy Otts, co-captain of Virginians For Nafta. The coalition - 100 of the state's largest businesses and 500 small and medium-sized companies - counter-attacked with an 'education' campaign. Company employees were exhorted to write or call their congressman. The anti-Nafta forces on Saturday published long lists of business contributors to the pro-Nafta congressmen. 'Constituents only have votes to give, and it seems these congressmen are having a hard time hearing their message,' the cover page said. On Friday, after the fifth pro-Nafta congressman announced his position, a dispirited Lorrie Beckwith, an opposition organiser, said her campaign had been hindered early on by a lack of unity. President Bill Clinton seemed to be buying off the undecided congressmen. One was reported to have been promised that a manufacturing research centre would be located in his district. Another was said to have received assurances of funding for a new aircraft carrier to be built in his district. A visit to Congressman Sisisky had not been encouraging, says Mr Beckwith. 'He says he had a bad feeling about the agreement in his gut. He was concerned it may hurt family farms. But if he is offered a decent project, he says he might find it tough to say no.' In Portsmouth, Virginia, one of the last undecided congressmen, Owen Pickett, is in his district office, as he is every weekend. His door bears a sign, 'This office belongs to the people of the second district of Virginia'. The unionised port workers are urging opposition. The military, which comprises most of the district's voters, are worried about jobs in the face of Pentagon cutbacks. 'He will listen to everyone's side,' a Pickett aide says.

pro-nafta lobbying effort;foreign policy implications;demonstrators;president bill clinton;pro-nafta congressmen;virginia;opposition organiser;passionate opposition;anti-nafta forces;judicial system;north american free trade agreement

FT934-8748

Markets: Traders nonplussed by trade vote - Wall Street

just try explaining what GATT, the Uruguay Round or Blair House are all about - but US investors have adopted a sensibly direct approach to the North American Free Trade Agreement: if Congress passes the treaty next week, it will be good for the economy, good for US companies, good for the stock markets, and good for President Clinton. Their reasoning is quite simple. Investors believe that Nafta will lift corporate profits because in a more open trading environment between the three signatory countries the US, with its superior industrial productivity rates and better-quality products, will enjoy the greatest economic benefits. The expectation is that growth in US exports to Mexico and Canada will outpace growth in imports from its neighbours to the north and south. Investors are not alone in their optimistic view of Nafta. Most Wall Street economists are pro-Nafta, as are the majority of business leaders, if recent polls are to be believed. There is, however, the dark side of Nafta to consider. What if Congress votes no? Investors fear that a rejection of Nafta would have dangerous knock- on effects around the world, depressing share prices in the US, Latin America and eventually Europe, and endangering vital trade negotiations over the Uruguay Round. By coincidence, the day after next week's Nafta vote, Clinton will be in Seattle for a trade conference with leaders of Asian Pacific Nations. If he arrives there fresh from defeat on Nafta, the President's authority on trade issues will be compromised. Investors' darkest fear is that a no vote on Nafta would throw such a spanner in the works of world trade that it would lead to a new era of international protectionism, higher inflation and slower world economic growth. In this scenario, inflation would be the biggest concern of markets. Many economists argue that the competitive forces unleashed by the accelerating collapse of international trade barriers have helped restrain global inflation. Low worldwide inflation has kept bond yields at historic lows, which in turn have boosted share prices to record highs in many markets. Thus, any reversal in that trend - a return of trade barriers, higher inflation, higher bond yields, - could undermine equity markets that are already vulnerable to a sharp downward correction because of expensive stock valuations. Then there is the political cost of Nafta's failure to consider. Although the President inherited the trade pact from his Republican predecessor, he has invested a lot of his own political capital in getting Nafta through Congress. On paper, this should not be a particularly difficult task, because Congress is controlled by Democrats. Yet, opposition to Nafta among Democratic legislators beholden to labour interests is considerable. Anti-Nafta forces have warned that opening up trade with Mexico will lead to a migration of American jobs south of the border, where wages are much lower. Because the domestic labour market remains weak, this line has struck a strong chord with ordinary Americans. The result is that the President faces a tough fight ensuring that the House of Representatives votes to approve the treaty on Wednesday. As of yesterday, the outcome of the vote was deemed too close to call. Stock markets in Mexico and the US, however, believe the chances of success for Nafta improved this week. Share prices in Mexico rose on Wednesday and Thursday, and US stocks made solid gains, following the televised debate on Tuesday between Vice-President Al Gore and Ross Perot, who is Nafta's most celebrated opponent. Gore clearly bested Perot in a heated war of words, and polls taken over the next few days revealed that more Americans had been won over to Nafta. Whether this helped swing the votes of some anti-Nafta legislators the Clinton administration's way remains to be seem. Nafta is playing on investors' minds because doubts over its passage through Congress have arisen at a vulnerable time for stock and bond prices. A week ago bond yields jumped amid worries that resurgent economic growth might rekindle inflation. Although data released this week on producer and consumer prices showed that fears of rising inflation are, at least for now, unjustified, equity investors remain nervous about rising bond yields. Amid all the doubts over the Nafta, one thing is certain, trading on markets next week is likely to be hamstrung by uncertainty over Wednesday night's vote, which, like the battle over President Clinton's first budget, will be extremely close. ----------------------------------------------- Monday 3647.90 + 04.47 Tuesday 3640.07 - 07.83 Wednesday 3663.55 + 23.48 Thursday 3662.43 - 01.12 Friday 3684.51 + 22.08 -----------------------------------------------

international protectionism;trade pact;economic benefits;investors;open trading environment;anti-nafta forces;global inflation;president clinton;north american free trade agreement

FT934-9116

US public opinion swings behind Nafta

THE FIGHT over the North American Free Trade Agreement yesterday shifted outside Washington to the Congressional districts of members, sampling public opinion at home during this Veterans' Day holiday weekend. The pro-Nafta forces, exulting over the debate victory of Vice President Al Gore over Texan billionaire Ross Perot, hoped they had finally captured the elusive momentum necessary to carry them to victory in the House vote next Wednesday. A USA Today/CNN poll of debate watchers found support for the trade pact between the US, Canada and Mexico had shot up from 34 per cent before the debate to 57 per cent after it. Arthur Andersen & Company yesterday released a survey, by its tax and business advisory service, which found that large majorities of executives of medium-sized companies in Canada, Mexico and the US strongly support Nafta. Meanwhile in Mexico the country's Congress launched a fierce attack on Mr Perot and other critics of its political system yesterday, in a furious response to Mr Perot's comments in the debate. Mr Perot claimed Mexicans were treated worse than animals and livestock in the US, were oppressed by the government, and enjoyed few if any labour and democratic rights. He said just 34 families owned half the country, and some 85m others lived in poverty. The Mexican Congress issued a statement, supported by most political parties, which said: 'We cannot ignore however, that certain judgments expressed, apart from showing a serious ignorance for our country, attack and offend Mexicans. We condemn them as inadmissible and without foundation.' US opponents of Nafta believe that fear of job and investment losses to Mexico will outweigh any new-found enthusiasm for the pact. 'The only thing that matters is the economy,' said Mr Christopher Whalen, a Washington trade consultant. 'The political equation still is going to be that congressmen who vote for Nafta will have to look for other employment next year.' Trying to blunt any momentum for the administration, Congressman David Bonior, an anti-Nafta whip, on Wednesday announced that he had 219 of 434 members pledged to vote against the pact. However, he needs at least 10-12 votes more than the majority to prevent last-minute switches, as the Administration increases its pressure. The Administration this week has picked up 10 public endorsement votes, and claims to have a total of 192. It is publishing a free 800 telephone number with the offer to voters to send, free of charge, pro-Nafta telegrams to their congressman. Around the country, the opposition troops are planning rallies, marches, town hall meetings and 'accountability meetings' with congressmen. Ms Lori Wallach, an anti-Nafta leader, said Nafta would be won or lost in the congressmen's home districts. Washington will not be bereft of activity over the long weekend. The anti-Nafta Citizens' Trade Campaign is bringing 'Nafta Claus' to the Capitol to distribute gifts in a parody of the president's effort to sell Nafta to a reluctant Congress.

house vote;anti-nafta whip;debate victory;trade pact;public opinion;mexican congress;trade campaign;pro-nafta forces;congressional districts;north american free trade agreement

FT941-1547

Commodities and Agriculture: Germany sets scientist to work on BSE threat

The German government yesterday announced the launch of a new research project to examine whether the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) can be transmitted to human beings. The initiative comes as the country is pushing for a European Union ban on British beef imports, arguing that there is still no conclusive evidence that the disease cannot affect humans. Seven German universities and research institutes will be sponsored by the country's research and technology ministry to examine possible connections between the origins of BSE and two other diseases, Creutzfeldt Jakob disease and Gerstmann Straussler syndrome, which very rarely affect humans. Several German scientists have expressed concern that BSE - popularly known as 'mad cow disease' because of the way it debilitates the brains of cattle -may be transmissible to humans who eat contaminated beef or take medicines made with ingredients from contaminated animals. 'The danger that BSE can be transmitted to humans is minimal or non-existent,' said Professor Hans Kretzschmar from Gottingen University. 'However, we do not know that it is non-existent. I personally think (British beef) should not be imported.' Contaminated British beef will be discussed at a meeting of EU health ministers on March 30, but a German official said that any decisions about a ban would be made by the union's agriculture ministers, who were likely to argue that existing safeguards were sufficient. In 1992, the last year for which figures are available, Germany imported 2,092 tonnes of British beef - 2 per cent of all its beef imports from other EU countries - and 13 tonnes of veal. The research ministry said that more than 100,000 cattle had died as a result of catching BSE in Britain. A further 50 cases of the disease had been recorded in Switzerland and there were two known cases in Germany, one of which affected a cow imported from Britain.

mad cow disease;cattle disease;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;possible connections;bse;british beef imports

FT941-1750

World Trade News: Neighbours line up at the door of Nafta - Caribbean basin nations hope for help to ease the pain

Central American and Caribbean governments are awaiting with more than passing interest an imminent US statement on measures to cushion the economic dislocation which the region expects from the North American Free Trade Agreement. However, Washington's proposals, promised by Mr Alexander Watson, assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, are likely to disappoint Caribbean basin governments which have been seeking a comprehensive package to allow free access to the US and Canadian markets. The US proposals could also be 'at a cost' to the region, say some Caribbean officials. Claiming that a more competitive Mexico, with free access to the US and Canada, will capture markets which Caribbean basin countries have developed under current trade agreements, the region has asked for 'parity' with Mexico in exporting to Nafta signatories. Some regional government officials and US legislators supportive of the Caribbean's concerns - which include the possible diversion of investments to Mexico - have now concluded that what would amount to a de facto extension of Nafta is unlikely. They believe that the US administration would not again willingly confront the coalition of opposition which fought the implementing legislation last November. The measures to be announced by the US are a result of discussions last year between President Bill Clinton and leaders from the Caribbean and Central America. Mr Clinton and his Mexican counterpart, Mr Carlos Salinas, assured the Caribbean basin countries that they would not be adversely affected by the implementation of Nafta, and that efforts would be made to protect their markets in the US and Canada. What the Caribbean basin countries want is quick action by legislators in Washington, and then in Ottawa and Mexico City, to ratify proposals by some US congressmen to put all the region's exports to the US and Canada on a par with Mexico's. The parity proposals are aimed at giving Caribbean basin countries an open door to the Nafta market for three years. During this time they would have the opportunity of negotiating their future trade relationship with the Nafta signatories, with the option of seeking membership either as individual states or as a group. 'President Clinton has said his administration will ensure that the benefits of Nafta are felt by the Caribbean countries,' said Mr Manuel Esquivel, prime minister of Belize. 'We are heartened by President Salinas' assurances that it is not Mexico's intention to take investments away from the Caribbean. But we remain apprehensive.' There is yet no indication of what the US administration will propose for the Caribbean basin. Mr Edwin Carrington, secretary-general of the Caribbean Community (Caricom), said he expected parity to be given to 'only a few' of the region's exports, including textiles. 'The parity issue, which is the first step we are seeking, is becoming a case of limited benefits for a very great price,' he said. While willing to give parity to a few products, the US wanted the Caribbean basin countries to meet new conditions, including bilateral investment treaties, intellectual property rights agreements, workers' rights and environmental legislation, democracy, good governance and accountability, Mr Carrington said. 'The costs of parity are much higher than we anticipated and any thoughts of full membership of Nafta are as far down the road as they ever were.' In presenting their case for parity, Caribbean leaders have argued that the US and Canada will also be the losers if there is extensive economic dislocation in the region caused by a loss of markets to Mexico. Mr P J Patterson, Jamaica's prime minister, claimed that many jobs in the US depended on trade flows between that country and the Caribbean region. 'Each Dollars 1bn of US exports to the region creates 20,000 new jobs in the US,' he said. 'In the past 10 years US exports to the Caribbean basin have doubled, making the region the tenth largest market for US exporters. As Caribbean economies grow our ability to absorb US exports will also increase. 'Currently 60 cents of every dollar earned by the Caribbean returns to the US through the purchase of US goods, compared with only 10 cents for each dollar spent by Asia. This is why we must pursue efforts to ensure that the question of the granting of parity be given early and positive consideration.' Without improved access to the US and Canadian markets to counter Mexico's benefits under Nafta, the Caribbean basin countries will have to continue depending on their current trade preference agreements with the US and Canada. The benefits from these were diminishing, said Mr Carrington, as the region's exports became less competitive and Mexican products enjoyed the benefits of the market. 'The Nafta playing field will never be level for the region,' he said. 'Nobody is going to give us an even playing field, but we have to work to make it less uneven.'

economic dislocation;possible diversion;nafta market;parity proposals;president bill clinton;caribbean basin countries;competitive mexico;central american;north american free trade agreement

FT941-4219

Survey of Residential Property (1): Tunnel to increased value - The Chunnel is about to change life in northern France and Kent. Gerald Cadogan looks at the implications for the property market

On May 6 the Queen and President Mitterrand will declare the Channel Tunnel open. That should be the starting signal for a recovery in the property market in Kent and north eastern France. At the moment, agents report more inquiries, but the markets in both countries are still quiet and prices low, especially in France. That is an excellent long-term reason to buy. Le Shuttle's high starting prices for a vehicle and its passengers will eventually come down creating price competition between rail, ferry, catamaran and Hovercraft. Far-sighted prospective buyers looking near Calais include hauliers wanting to set up a base on the Continent, and Asian entrepreneurs who see an advantage in being close to Belgium. John Hart, author of A House in France, notes: 'It is not a rush. The tunnel does not mean much to the continentals. Most of the ferry trade is from Britain to France.' The British are mainly looking for houses, rather than apartments, although French and Dutch buyers are also in the market. Inquiries about northern French property picked up just before Christmas, says Maggie Kelly, of French agents L'Abri-tanique in Hesdin. Growing confidence in the UK market is slowly stimulating interest in French property. UK buyers can now sell their UK home to put money into a main residence or second home in France. Prices have stopped falling in northern France and hopes are high that the tunnel, motorways and new railways will resuscitate the region. Britons who bought in 1989 or 1990 may find it a good time to sell, if they did not pay too much at the time and have renovated their properties since. But some paid far too much. Spectacular price cuts can be found. For example, a glorious, repossessed abbey with five acres in Tortefontaine, with a 12th century hall and many outbuildings, is on sale at around FFr750,000 (Pounds 86,000) from agents Latitudes or L'Abri-tanique. Four or five years ago it cost FFr2.5m (after being put on the market at FFr4m). A mill near Montreuil, which cost FFr2m in 1989, sold last year for FFr500,000. French banks and mortgage providers have taken it 'on the chin', said Kelly, and some smaller banks in Calais are none too happy when Britons seek loans. However, show you have the cash and there are bargains to be had. A house in Hesdin, or a nearby country cottage, make good weekend retreats and are far cheaper than their English equivalents. A small house in Montreuil, a walled town with cobbled streets, costs FFr280,000 from La Residence. A small, partly-restored farmhouse near Montreuil can be bought for FFr135,000 from A House in France. Thirty minutes' drive from Boulogne, a long, low, Norman-style, half-timbered, farmhouse is for sale at FFr515,250, and 50 minutes away another costs FFr436,800 (reduced from FFr650,000). Near St Omer agent Cote d'Opale is selling an 18th century chateau with wings added in 1908 for FFr4.46m. La Residence offers another with 28 watercress beds and 12 hectares (30 acres) in good condition for FFr2.6m and a flat in town for FFr380,000. In Hesdin, the Wine Society, an English-based group of wine enthusiasts, has an outlet for members where they can pick up society-recommended wines free of UK taxes. When Kelly sees Range Rover and Jaguar drivers collecting their cases of wine in Hesdin, she would like them to drop into her office 100 metres away and choose a house as well. Latitudes has on its books an 18th century town house with internal courtyard for FFr1.3m, a snip when you think what you would pay in Paris. Near Fruges is a water mill for FFr900,000 and, in the valley of the Ternoise, an 18th century brick house needing work is available for just FFr450,000. On the coast, Boulogne is a smart, pleasant town far preferable to Calais. It has good shops - including the Philippe Olivier cheese shop - and restaurants. The French favourite is Le Touquet, still an elegant place for Parisians to spend le weekend. Shops open in winter on Saturdays and Sundays -and close on Wednesdays and Thursday mornings. You can play golf and tennis, ride, go to the casino and live in an elegant domaine in the Foret. As in Deauville, the town's cachet has kept prices up. Penny Zoldan, of Latitudes, has a flat in Le Touquet and sees it as a good base for foreigners. Nearby, at Hardelot, there are plenty of building plots for sale beside the two golf courses (consult Latitudes). Outside Le Touquet, A House in France offers a chateau complete with fortification wall and tunnels for FFr1.3m. In the countryside beyond Dieppe, a typical Norman house, restored and including most of the furniture and a cottage, is for sale for Pounds 125,000 from Domus Abroad. Towards Paris, off the autoroute from Calais, Philip Hawkes is selling the 18th century Chateau de Pronleroy for FFr13m. Egerton and Knight Frank & Rutley is offering the more recent Chateau de la Chaussee, near Chantilly, the centre of French racing, at FFr19m. At the other end of the tunnel Cluttons reports Belgians and Dutch registering at the Canterbury office for period cottages for around Pounds 200,000, and French and Belgians at the Folkestone office - where David Parry reports that Arabs are interested in blocks of flats on the sea front. 'The tunnel has more psychological impact than anything. Vendors see it as a bonus. Buyers don't see that yet.' Once the tunnel is open, said Parry, industry will be attracted to the area and people will move in. Central and east Kent need a stimulus but it may take four or five years before there is any evidence of new opportunities in the area. An apartment in The Grand at Folkestone, the former hotel, is for sale from Cluttons for Pounds 89,500. Along the M2, Strutt & Parker offers 52 St Margaret's Street, Rochester, a Grade II* late 17th century house, for Pounds 190,000, and a Tudor (1508) and Georgian Kentish hall, Cobrahamsole Hall at Sheldwich near Faversham for Pounds 275,000. Lane Fox is selling the half-timbered Manor Farmhouse at Milstead, near Sittingbourne, for Pounds 275,000. In the old Cinque Port of Deal, Strutt & Parker and Bright & Bright offer Woodbine, a Georgian house with walled garden and studio, for Pounds 330,000. Cluttons' Canterbury office and Weatherall Green & Smith are selling Highland Court, at Bridge, a columned stately home, for Pounds 750,000. The far-sighted are buying now, either side of La Manche. The value in France is formidable. And it is not bad in Kent. Further information in France: L'Abri-tanique, Hesdin (21 81 59 79); Cote d'Opale, Le Touquet (21 05 21 05); Knight Frank & Rutley, Paris (1) 42 96 88 88; Philip Hawkes, Paris (1) 42 68 11 11. And in England: Bright & Bright, Deal (0304-374071); Cluttons, Canterbury (0227-457441) and Folkestone (0303-850 422); Domus Abroad (071-431-4692); Egerton (071-493-0676); A House in France (081-959-5182); Lane Fox, Sevenoaks (0732-459 900); Latitudes (081-958-5485); La Residence, Ruislip (0895-622020); Strutt & Parker, Canterbury (0227-451123); Weatherall Green & Smith (071-405-6944).

property market;recovery;starting signal;prospective buyers;france;channel tunnel;britain;price competition;uk market;french property

FT941-575

Commodities and Agriculture: Commission to back Britain on 'mad cow disease'

The UK will get strong backing from Brussels today when Germany seeks a ban on British beef exports because of fear of 'mad cow disease', or bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). The European Commission planned to tell Germany that it would take legal action if Bonn attempted to introduce a unilateral ban, commission officials said yesterday. Health ministers of the 12 will also discuss the BSE row tomorrow afternoon. Mr Horst Seehofer, the German health minister, has been the prime mover for action against the UK. Bonn is calling for a ban on all live cattle and beef exports from the UK after the discovery in Germany of BSE imported from the UK. The commission has reminded Germany that it is the EU that sets veterinary rules, and that there is no scientific evidence proving a link between BSE and Creutzfeld-Jakob disease, which affects humans. A series of restrictions have been imposed in the UK beef sector, which Britain and the commission say are working. In 1990, certain bovine offals, like brain and spleen, were banned for human consumption. Since June 1990 there has been a ban on the export of live cattle over six months from the UK, and on the progeny of BSE-affected cows. In addition, all British exports of bone-in beef must be certified as coming from herds that have been free of 'mad cow disease' for two years. British officials say that the EU single market will be disrupted unless all member states stick to the scientific evidence, and that Germany's threat of unilateral action risks a collapse in beef consumption similar to the fall that followed the 1990 BSE scare. 'We feel we have a sound case and other member states and the Commission agree with us,' a senior British agriculture official said.

british beef exports;mad cow disease;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;restrictions;unilateral ban;british exports;bse-affected cows;germany

FT942-11114

Survey of The Channel Tunnel (16): Big potential benefits - Belgium looks for economic spin-offs

The official opening of the Channel Tunnel later this year promises to help revitalise the north-west regions of Belgium, even though the country's biggest ports will suffer a loss of traffic. The chambers of commerce in Veurne and Courtrai, along with the West Flanders Regional Development Authority in Bruges, are gearing up to become part of what they refer to as the 'new European Metropolitan Area.' This takes in the Nord-Pas de Calais in France, Western Flanders and Hainaut in Belgium, and Kent in the UK. The potential for this region is enormous. According to Mr Anthony Vande Candelare, an urban planner who made a study of the influence of the Channel Tunnel on the west of Belgium and the North of France: 'Overnight, the Belgian coast and the North of France will become the centre of Europe.' Mr Jo Libeer, managing director of the Courtrai chamber of commerce, is equally optimistic about the likely impact on the area of the tunnel. 'With the TGV and the chunnel this region, which was sort of in the corner of Europe, will now be in the middle of a new developing area,' he says. This is no bad thing for Belgium. In its last economic survey of the country, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said the Belgian economy had deteriorated 'progressively' since the 1980s. 'And over the last 10 to 12 months it has taken a distinct turn for the worse.' Furthermore, Flanders, the area most likely to benefit from the arrival of the tunnel, has recently suffered more rapid increases in unemployment than in Wallonia and the Brussels region. The unemployment rate, which in 1990 was 9.5 per cent in Flanders has risen to 13 per cent. The Belgian chambers in the regions most directly affected believe there are two main areas for development: firstly, increasing traffic through western Flanders as holidaymakers and freight carriers head towards the tunnel-opening in Calais; and secondly tourism. To benefit fully, however, a crucial 7km stretch of the E40 European motorway between Veurne and the French border has yet to be completed. Once this is done it will be possible to drive from Russia to England without leaving a motorway, says Mr Philippe Claerhout, chairman of the Veurne chamber of commerce and industry. Fortunately, plans to complete the stretch have been agreed and it should be open some time next year. On the downside, the Westhoek region is badly placed to benefit from rail transport. 'Even after the doubling of the tracks and electrification of the railway line between Ghent and De Panne, we will still be a remote corner,' says Mr Claerhout. Furthermore, Belgium's biggest ports are expecting traffic loads to fall, as freight and passengers are directed towards Calais. Worst affected will be Ostend and Zeebrugge, two ports hoping to hold their own by concentrating on links with ports in the north of England. Nonetheless, the improved, if imperfect, transport communications of the West Flanders region are apparently paying off. Mr Geert Sanders, who works for the Regional Development Authority of West Flanders, says there is already evidence that the region's enhanced communications are attracting new businesses. For example, Baronie, a Dutch chocolate company, is opening a new base in the southern part of West Flanders. There is, however, a danger that Belgium will not make the most of the commercial opportunities - 'we will try to attract new industry, but our region is very small and our industrial zones are full,' says Mr Ludo Verstraete, of the Veurne chamber of commerce. The Belgian authorities have dragged their feet over decisions to dedicate new areas, he says. The other main focus for development is tourism. As Mr Claerhout says: 'We need to convince people from other countries that it is worth their while to stop in Westhoek at the time of their journey through the North of Europe to England.' The potential is there. West Flanders is home to some of the best-known World War One battlefields, and promoters of the region insist that its large, open green spaces will, when properly developed, attract foreign visitors. But once again, there is a danger that Belgium will miss out. It has been slower to develop the tourist potential of the Channel Tunnel than France. Around Calais, a commercial and leisure centre, hotels and activity parks, known as 'La Cite de L'Europe', are springing up while Lille is home to Euralille, a similar development. As Mr Verstraete of the Veurne chamber of commerce says: 'Tourism is very important . . . we really have to develop our hotels and tourist infrastructure.' But the biggest advantages for Belgium will come from close co-operation between the national and federal authorities and their French and UK counterparts. In a Europe without frontiers, this will be the most effective way of benefiting from the the Channel Tunnel.

chunnel;holidaymakers;european metropolitan area;rapid increases;western flanders;channel tunnel;traffic loads;freight carriers;development;official opening;belgium

FT943-12341

Technology: Waiting for the big one - There is growing scepticism about Japan's earthquake prediction programme

Some 160km west of Tokyo in Japan's coastal Tokai region is what may be the world's most dense array of geophysical instruments. More than 150 meters and gauges track seismic activity, rock strain, crustal tilt, tidal movements and ground water levels. The data are telemetered to Tokyo where they are monitored around the clock in the hope that six experts, to be summoned at a moment's notice, will recognise unusual phenomena that may indicate an imminent earthquake. If the committee so advises, Japan's prime minister will issue an earthquake warning for the Tokai area. Trains will be stopped, traffic routed out of the area, stores closed and pupils let out of schools. Areas prone to landslides and tidal waves will be evacuated. Hospitals, firefighters and rescue crews will go on alert. And then everyone will wait for an earthquake measuring eight on the Richter scale. Long after the rest of the world has abandoned hope of predicting earthquakes, Japan continues to spend Dollars 2.5m (Pounds 1.6m) a year monitoring the Tokai region and close to Dollars 100m more on general earthquake prediction research. For prediction believers, it is a small price to pay, as Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries. But for increasingly vocal sceptics in Japan, it is at best a misguided effort that wastes money and is dangerously misleading the public. Despite the protests, however, Japan's earthquake prediction programme rolls along on inertia, insularity and unrealistic public expectations. Japan made earthquake prediction a national project in 1965 when scientists throughout the world were optimistic about prediction. Research was also being taken seriously in the US, Russia and China. In Japan, prediction took on urgency when seismologists concluded that the Tokai area was overdue for a significant quake. The Suruga Trough, a deep submarine trench running just offshore, forms the boundary between two of the earth's tectonic plates. The Philippine Sea Plate is diving beneath the Eurasian Plate. Friction between these plates causes the area's earthquakes. The Tokai section last ruptured in 1854. If the entire section ruptures again, the resulting quake could reach eight on the Richter scale, endangering the lives of 10m residents in the area. That prospect led to the 1978 Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act, which established the warning procedure and launched hazard mitigation and emergency response programmes. Since then, optimism about prediction has faded. Even prediction supporters admit there is no scientific theory on which to base a forecast. Prediction hinges on spotting anomalous phenomena, or precursors. Unfortunately, it has proved impossible to conclude consistently and definitively whether the signspredictors look for - swarms of small earthquakes, unusual bulges and creeps in the earth's crust, sudden changes in geomagnetism or electrical resistivity - are precursors or simply background geologic noise. Precursors are often only recognised as such after a large earthquake. And many earthquakes occur without any identifiable precursor, even in retrospect. There are also questions as to whether Japan's monitoring efforts are focused in the right place. Recent studies by seismologists at the Ministry of Construction have indicated the possibility of a significant quake occurring in the Izu area between Tokai and Tokyo. The city is overdue for a big quake, according to several theories. Japan has had numerous killer quakes outside the Tokai monitoring network, including a 7.8 earthquake off the coast of Hokkaido last year that claimed more than 200 lives. Kiyoo Mogi, chairman of the six-member panel that will make the call on the Tokai earthquake and former head of the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute, says several factors make the Tokai region more suited than others for what he calls 'a national experiment'. The region's geology is straightforward, so they can narrow down the likely location of the anticipated earthquake. Historically, strain along the Suruga Trough has been released in infrequent large earthquakes, rather than numerous small ones. The evidence is that significant strain has accumulated along the fault since the region's last big earthquake. Recognising precursors will still be difficult. Mogi says they now believe that precursor patterns may be particular to each section of a fault. He says if they knew what precursory phenomena occurred the last time that section of the fault slipped, in 1854, they would be able to predict the next earthquake. Instead, the six experts are watching for the rapid uplift of the crust on the westward side of the trough that preceded quakes along adjacent sections of the fault in 1944 and 1946. This all makes a successful prediction a long shot. Aside from the Tokai effort, scientists outside the programme are disturbed that it is so generously funded and has so little to show. Prediction research elsewhere withered as scientists who could not convince review committees of the scientific merit of their research lost their funding. Japan's prediction research activities, primarily overseen by the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture, are subject to no such review. A sub-committee of one of the ministry's innumerable advisory bodies draws up five-year plans. But, in effect, the budget is divided among researchers and institutions in the same proportions each year. The public, and even public officials, remain largely unaware that Japan's scientists are debating whether prediction is impossible or merely difficult. Most citizens do not realise that Tokai is the only region in which the government even intends to attempt a short-term warning. High public expectations are coming back to haunt the six-member panel of experts, which must conclude that the gathered data indicate either 'a cause for concern' or 'no cause for concern'. Mogi would like to add a third category between the two that would indicate 'some level of concern'. Many scientists agree a 'maybe' is not unreasonable, given the state of the art. Public officials, however, are insisting the experts make an 'it's coming' or 'it's not' decision. Meanwhile, the controversy might be settled if the experts get their call from the technicians monitoring the Tokai data.

earthquake warning;japan;general earthquake prediction research;imminent earthquake;coastal tokai region;richter scale;seismic activity;tokai earthquake

FT943-4951

Commodities and Agriculture: De Beers digs deeper into its resources - The new lease of life for the Jwaneng and Finsch diamond mines

The Jwaneng mine, on the fringes of the Kalahari desert in Botswana, is known as 'a gem in the world of gems' because it almost certainly is the richest diamond mine in the world - at least in terms of the value of the stones it yields. Jwaneng's position is being reinforced by a USDollars 160m expansion programme at present being completed three months ahead of schedule and under budget. Meanwhile, 160km west of Kimberley in the northern Cape Province of South Africa, another diamond mine, the Finsch, where operations started in 1964, has been given a new lease of life. Having dug an open pit 423 metres deep, miners have now gone underground. Mr Simon Webb, the general manager, says that the underground development has given it another 35 to 40 years of life. All this goes to show that De Beers, the South African group that dominates world trade in rough (uncut) diamonds, still has complete faith in its ability to maintain stability in the diamond market despite short-term difficulties such as those the company is experiencing with Russia. It also remains intent on maintaining its diamond output even though its 100-year-old mines at Kimberley are now running down. The South African group believes that its control of at least 50 per cent of world diamond production gives it a powerful base from which to negotiate with the other producers who have marketing contracts with De Beers' Central Selling Organisation, In Botswana De Beers controls half of Debswana, the company that owns the Jwaneng mine, with the government owning the rest. The value of Jwaneng to Botswana cannot be overstated. It, and the country's two other (smaller) diamond mines, between them account for 50 per cent of the government's revenue and 40 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. No wonder Jwaneng's company slogan is Re phtas imisa Botswana, which translates as 'We make Botswana sparkle'. Production started at Jwaneng in 1982. Now a so-called fourth stream is being completed which is adding one-third to processing capacity. In turn, this means a 21 per cent rise in the number of carats produced. Last year the mine treated 5.8m tonnes of ore which yielded 8.546m carats of diamonds, well below the 1992 output when the 5.77m tonnes treated gave up more than 9m carats. Jwaneng's open pit has reached a depth of 190 metres. Already it is 2kms long and 1km wide. Mr Loz Shaw, chief geologist, says drilling down to 600 metres shows there are still plenty of diamonds at that depth and so the pit will go down at least that far. Mr Derrick Moore, the general manager, says this indicates mining in the open pit will last another 35 years - 'and then we might go underground'. If experience at De Beers' wholly-owned Finsch mine in South Africa is anything to go by, planning the underground development at Jwaneng might already have started. Planning for the underground mine at Finsch started in the 1970s and the first work began in 1979. Yet the bottom of the Finsch open pit - 423 metres -was not reached until 1990. Unfortunately, things did not go completely as expected when underground mining started, to some extent because the development was designed by a management whose expertise was mainly in open pit mining. However, Mr Mark Button, mining superintendent, says: 'Finsch has come of age as an underground mine after two years. Our costs compare with the best in the group.' Among the innovations that have helped Finsch achieve its objectives are some remote-controlled LHD (load-haul-dump) trucks which are similar to radio-controlled toy vehicles or boats. Using VHF radio signals, a driver can stand back and send a truck on its own to dig out material from areas between the old pit wall and the underground development that would not otherwise be mined because of the dangers involved. When, as occasionally happens, rock crashes on to the LHD trucks, it is relatively simply to haul the vehicles out virtually undamaged. Mr Webb says the objective is to mine down to a depth of 830 metres, at which point there are not enough diamonds left in the ground to make recovery viable. Finsch - named after the discoverers, Messrs Fincham and Schwabel, who stumbled across the kimberlite pipe containing the diamonds when actually they were looking for asbestos - is one of the victims of the present turmoil in the diamond market caused mainly by uncertainties about Russian exports. About 500 of its 1,900 employees were laid off in August 1992. It is mining only five days a week at present and processing on four days. Last year Finsch mined 2.68m tonnes and recovered 2m carats of diamonds compared with 4.7m tonnes mined and 3.446m carats in 1992. Mr Webb suggests 1994 output will be similar to last year's. But when market conditions improve, production can be brought back up to previous levels in about six months.

wholly-owned finsch mine;diamond mines;jwaneng mine;south african group;diamond output;botswana;central selling organisation;underground mine;russian exports;de beers;world diamond production

FT943-5628

Commodities and Agriculture: Showpiece diamond mine shares the market's strain

Turbulence in the global diamond markets is being felt even here at Venetia, De Beers' newest diamond mine, 30km from South Africa's borders with Botswana and Zimbabwe. Only weeks before the mine came into production in July 1992 at a cost of USDollars 400m, De Beers' Central Selling Organisation, which controls 80 per cent of world trade in rough (uncut) diamonds, imposed quotas on its producer-suppliers because of a flood of gem stones from Angola. For a time Venetia, the first mine of any sort in South Africa to gain permission for seven-day working, moved to a five-day week. This year it has gone back to seven-day working as the quotas were eased so that the CSO is now accepting 85 per cent of the diamonds it contracted to take from producers. However, there is still turmoil in the diamond market, caused by uncertainty about Russian exports following 'leaks' of stones from that country outside its contract with the CSO. Consequently, Mr Hans Gastrow, general manager, says that this year Venetia will process 4.3m tonnes of ore, 6.5 per cent below its capacity. It is also mining an area of lower grade ore, which has fewer diamonds in each tonne. Mr Gastrow is giving no forecasts but all this implies that output will be well below the 5.6m carats a year De Beers predicted Venetia would yield at full production. Last year the mine, building up rapidly, more than doubled output and processed 3.6m tonnes of ore to recover 4.96m carats. About 70 per cent of Venetia's diamonds are of gem quality and analysts suggest that at Dollars 100 a carat on average the mine is generating annual sales of about Dollars 500m. Mr Gastrow says that, apart from the imposition of the CSO quota, Venetia 'has made a remarkably smooth transition from construction to production'. This year will be a time of consolidation. He insists that the quota is having no impact on employment. Nevertheless, Venetia originally was to have employed 870 and it now has 764. A mine of Venetia's size in the past would have employed 2,000. The total has been kept down here partly by highly automated process plant but also by 'fewer people employed just to see that other people are doing their jobs', according to Mr David Gadd-Claxton, ore extraction manager. Venetia was the first new South African diamond mine for 25 years. It is also the country's biggest diamond mine and a major contributor of export earnings. The mine has also revitalised De Beers' production, as it is accounting for half the group's output in South Africa and replacing production from its 100-year-old Kimberley mines, which are now fading away. Venetia's success is strategically important to De Beers because, when its output is added to that in Botswana and Namibia, it gives the group direct control over more than 50 per cent of world rough gem diamond output. This provides a major base for the CSO to work from and gives it a powerful position from which to negotiate with other producers in the diamond cartel. And, while Venetia is using conventional methods to mine about 500m tonnes of waste and to mine and process 100m tonnes of ore over its projected 23-year life, it is trying some highly innovative ideas about labour relations and environmental issues, at least as far as South Africa is concerned. For example, there are no migrant workers at the mine. Employees are bussed in from nearby towns for 12-hour shifts and then return to their families. Venetia is also breaking with the De Beers' tradition that, for security reasons, no equipment leaves the mine but is burried within the top security area once it is no longer useful. Here worn out equipment will be stockpiled and sold off when the mine closes. It could be worth millions of dollars.

south african diamond mine;russian exports;rough gem diamond output;central selling organisation;diamond cartel;venetia;turbulence;global diamond markets;de beers

FT944-18184

Who next? Reformers fear the assassin in Mexico - The aftermath of the killing of another PRI leader

If Mr Ernesto Zedillo, Mexico's next president, had any doubts about the difficulties of reforming Mexico's governing party and the country's corrupt judicial and legal system, the assassination last week of Mr Jose Francisco Ruiz Massieu, the party's number two official, will probably have removed them. Mr Ruiz Massieu's killing was allegedly ordered by Mr Manuel Munoz Rocha, a federal deputy of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI), and Mr Abraham Rubio Canales, a former tourism developer with strong links to the Gulf drug cartel in the state of Tamaulipas. The two allegedly hired the gunman, and other accomplices, according to testimony from one man who has confessed to his role in the killing. This alleged alliance between a hardliner in the governing party and a man with links to a drug gang has underlined concerns that efforts by Mr Zedillo to reform his party and the country's criminal justice system will be met with fierce and violent resistance from those who stand to lose from these changes. According to testimony from the alleged accomplices to the assassination, the conspirators drew up a list of reform-minded politicians with plans to kill all of them. Since Mr Ruiz Massieu's assassination, there has been renewed speculation that political reactionaries and drug traffickers may have had a hand in the killing six months ago of Mr Luis Donaldo Colosio, the ruling party's reform-minded presidential candidate, even though no evidence has emerged to indicate this is the case. Mr Carlos Fuentes, the novelist, asked yesterday in a newspaper article entitled 'Who is next?' whether Mexico, like Colombia, was facing a period of sustained political violence orchestrated by drug barons. Other columnists have insinuated that more groups than currently revealed might be involved in Mr Ruiz Massieu's murder. Mr Munoz Rocha has promised to hand himself in if his safety is guaranteed, according to a statement by Mexico's Congress. Two newspapers reported yesterday that Mr Munoz Rocha has admitted to a role in the crime but put the responsibility on Mr Rubio Canales, who reportedly blames Mr Ruiz Massieu for his conviction for fraud in 1992, and the prison sentence he is currently serving. Mr Munoz Rocha said he participated in the assassination 'because I was angry that I had not been supported in my political aspirations'. The ruling party has denied that the crime reflects an internal battle between ideological factions in the PRI. Mr Ignacio Pichardo, the president of the party, declared on Monday that Mr Munoz Rocha 'never had intellectual interests, never raised issues of political theory, and was never associated with making ideological pronouncements.' Mr Pichardo insisted that the reform of the PRI would go ahead. As if to underline this pledge, Ms Maria de los Angeles Moreno, the head of the PRI group in the Chamber of Deputies and a reformist, was appointed to replace Mr Ruiz Massieu as the party's secretary-general. Government officials have suggested the Gulf drug cartel may have deliberately involved Mr Munoz Rocha in the assassination to maximise the political impact of the crime. The motives of drug traffickers are uncertain. One view is they believed the assassination would weaken Mr Ruiz Massieu's brother, Mario, who is the deputy attorney general in charge of drug enforcement. If this was the motivation, the plan may have backfired. Mr Ruiz Massieu has taken charge of the investigation into his brother's death, and search for drug cartel members appears to have intensified. Another view is the cartel was seeking revenge. Mr Mario Ruiz Massieu recently had arrested Raul Valladares, top lieutenant in the Gulf Cartel and son-in-law of Mr Rubio Canales, the man in the Acapulco jail accused of jointly plotting the assassination.

mexico;alleged alliance;gulf drug cartel;violent resistance;criminal justice system;reform-minded politicians;assassination;jose francisco ruiz massieu

LA010890-0031

COLUMN ONE; POLITICS, PAIN AND THE POLICE; ANTI-ABORTION PROTESTERS DECRY HOLDS APPLIED BY OFFICERS DURING ARRESTS. THEIR STAND HAS TURNED LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE ALLIANCES TOPSY-TURVY.

A controversial videotape being shown among activists nationwide shows Los Angeles police officers intentionally hurting the nonviolent demonstrators they are arresting. They press fingers under their noses. They dig their knuckles into protesters' necks, and torque martial arts weapons around their wrists. At one point, two officers twist a woman's arm till she rises from the ground, her face wrenched in agony. In another scene, a young man winces as officers lead him along. His arm, contorted behind his back, finally snaps. The law enforcement name for these techniques is "pain-compliance." Police departments nationwide say it's a tried and true way to make uncooperative protesters cooperate. But opponents call the term a euphemism for torture. Demonstrators have alleged police brutality at least since Freedom Riders launched their sit-down strikes in Alabama almost 30 years ago. This time, however, the outcry -- including the videotapes of police in action -- comes from anti-abortion protesters with Operation Rescue, whose members tend to see themselves as law-and-order conservatives. As a result, traditional political alliances have been turned topsy-turvy. Suddenly, some pro-choice liberals are as supportive of the police as conservative hawks were during 1960s demonstrations, while some anti-abortion Republicans are voicing the sort of "police state" rhetoric once associated with anti-war radicals. In introducing a measure to limit the police use of force in arresting nonviolent protesters, William Armstrong, Colorado's conservative Republican senator, decried pain-compliance as "something we expect to hear about in Nicaragua or Nazi Germany -- but not in the United States of America." Other conservative lawmakers have echoed his concerns, and on Nov. 15, with little media attention, President Bush signed legislation withholding certain federal grants from cities whose police use excessive force. Meanwhile, police officers, many of whom are sympathetic to the anti-abortion cause, claim that religious zeal -- and perhaps the use of muscle relaxants -- has given Operation Rescue anti-abortion protesters an unusually high tolerance to pain -- or even a martyr's appetite for it. Caught off guard by an ambush from their conservative allies, police are howling that the new law -- which could deprive Los Angeles alone of more than $50 million a year in federal aid -- will handcuff them. "I think it's utter stupidity," Los Angeles Police Chief Daryl F. Gates said. "Utter, complete stupidity." In reaction to the uproar, the LAPD is quickly phasing out the term pain-compliance, but not the techniques, which have been used "in civil rights demonstrations, student demonstrations, Vietnam demonstrations . . . all through the '60s, all through the '70s," Gates said. He smiled. "You didn't hear any Republicans complain then, did you?" While Gates acknowledged that this issue stirs up memories of the controversy about "chokeholds" -- a restraint the LAPD now uses only in life-threatening situations as a result of fierce public pressure -- he argues that "come-along" techniques, properly used, are the safest, most effective way to arrest nonviolent demonstrators. His officers, he added, are as well-trained in the use of these holds as any in the country. On a recent morning, for example, the Los Angeles Police Academy gym echoed with the unmistakable sounds of force being exerted, as pairs of recruits, dressed in dark blue sweats, kicked, jabbed, swung their night sticks, or grappled one another into chokeholds or pain-compliance holds. Reacting to one phase of the exam, a woman cadet knocked back an assailant's hand, backed up quickly and leveled her weapon at the man's chest, shouting: "Put your hands up, lock your elbows, spread your fingers." Had this been a real incident, she would have had to decide in a flash of synapses whether "reasonable force" included opening fire with her handgun. Deadly force is one extreme among the techniques officers must choose from in confronting suspected lawbreakers, explained Sgt. Fred Nichols, the academy's expert on the use of force. The least forceful tactic is a simple request -- "Would you do this?" Pain-compliance techniques fit into the scale above talk but below the use of a Taser gun, tear gas, and the police baton. Among the most simple "come-along" compliance techniques are twist- and wrist-locks, in which a subject's arm or wrists are manipulated so that soft tissue and nerves press against bone, Nichols said. Another trick of the trade: the "mastoid lift," in which officers press the nerves along each side of the neck. Demonstrated on recruits who had seated themselves like protesters on the Academy's playing field, each of these techniques worked promptly. But while some Operation Rescue demonstrators use a standard civil-disobedience technique and "go limp" when asked to move, others link arms. They become "human worm-balls" and make themselves tense, rendering standard compliance techniques ineffective, officers say. Trying to carry away protesters in these cases becomes even more dangerous to them and arresting officers, police say. So LAPD and other police forces around the country, including several in Orange County and the San Diego Police Department, began using a modified martial arts tool called a nunchaku -- now termed a "police control device" -- consisting of two 12-inch lengths of plastic connected by a length of nylon. To demonstrate, instructors jabbed the device between an arm and the chest of a cadet, and twisted it around in what is known as a "trap-and-wrap" maneuver. The gentlest twist triggered enough pain to make the recruit comply promptly. Nichols is puzzled by those who call pain-compliance excessive force, or compare it to the cattle prods police use in South Africa. Protesters are given every chance to move on their own. Police actually plead with Operation Rescue demonstrators in some cases, he said. Then "they're told they'll be subjected to excruciating pain. It's a pain control technique," he said. "It's going to hurt. That's what pain-compliance means." But protesters in Los Angeles and elsewhere assert that the nunchakus and more conventional come-along holds produced not only agony while being applied, but lingering pain, broken bones, torn ligaments, and, in some cases, long-lasting nerve damage. As a result, they have filed lawsuits against police in Los Angeles, Sacramento, Atlanta and other cities. Nichols and other officers are suspicious of Operation Rescue's charges.

los angeles police officers;anti-abortion cause;nonviolent protesters;police abuse;police brutality charges

LA011889-0067

D.A., FBI TO INVESTIGATE LONG BEACH POLICE CASE

The Los Angeles County district attorney's office and the FBI are investigating a videotaped incident in which a white Long Beach police officer appeared to shove a black man's face into a plate glass window after a routine traffic stop. The Long Beach City Council voted Tuesday to ask the district attorney's office to launch an independent investigation of the Saturday night incident, which was secretly recorded by an NBC television crew. But Assistant Dist. Atty. Curt Livesay said the office was already looking into the case at the request of the Long Beach police chief. "We agreed to review the matter to determine whether a criminal investigation is appropriate," Livesay said, adding that his office hopes to decide by Friday whether a full-fledged investigation is merited. If such an inquiry reveals that brutality was involved, either misdemeanor or felony charges could be filed against the officer, he said. The FBI has also been called in to determine whether the civil rights of the man who was arrested -- Don Jackson, a sergeant on administrative leave from the Hawthorne Police Department -- were violated during his altercation with two Long Beach officers on Pacific Coast Highway, spokesman Fred Reagan said. He refused to say who had requested the federal investigation. "We've had an allegation of a civil rights violation and we opened a ticket on it this morning," he said. Jackson and Jeff Hill, an off-duty federal corrections officer, donned dirty old clothes and drove into Long Beach in a rented 12-year-old sedan Saturday night as the television crew followed behind in a van. The two men said they wanted to demonstrate a long-standing problem of abuse of minority group members by Long Beach police officers. Full Tape Withheld While edited portions of the tape have been broadcast, Long Beach officials have said they need to see everything filmed by the NBC crew to move ahead with their own investigation of the incident. NBC officials have declined to release the full tape, saying that it would violate company policy to release unedited footage. A Long Beach assistant city attorney said his office is considering legal action to obtain the tapes. Although Long Beach Mayor Ernie Kell told NBC's "Today Show" on Tuesday morning that the two police officers had been suspended, Police Chief Lawrence L. Binkley said that the officers, Mark Dickey and Mark Ramsey, will remain on duty at this stage of the investigation. They have, however, been reassigned from patrol duty to the detective bureau, he said. Kell admitted later Tuesday that he was in error in his "Today Show" comments, but said he would favor firing the officers if it is proved that they used brutal tactics in dealing with Jackson. Called 'Unfortunate' At Tuesday's City Council meeting, the mayor called the incident "an unfortunate set of circumstances. We will not tolerate this. . . . We need to find out what happened here and make sure it never happens again." An investigation by the district attorney will add credibility to the city's own consideration of the brutality allegations, Kell said. It is not unusual for the district attorney to look into allegations of police brutality, Livesay said, estimating that the office takes on four to six such cases a year. In determining whether a police officer has used excessive force, prosecutors have to decide whether the officer acted "without lawful necessity" in assaulting or beating a suspect. He declined to detail what would constitute unnecessary force, saying that it would be a "judgement call" by prosecutors based on the actions and statements of the police officers and suspects, and the injuries suffered. Attorney Michael Hannon, who is representing the two officers, said Tuesday that he will contest any allegations of brutality. He said the officers were "set up" by black activists intent on creating a scene with police. Police Have No Comment In a statement released a day after the incident, Long Beach police said that Jackson's and Hill's sedan was pulled over for weaving across the center line of the highway. They denied that Jackson's head was shoved through the window, saying that his elbow smashed the glass. On Monday, however, department officials stopped releasing that statement and said they would have no comment pending the outcome of their internal investigation. A spokesman for the Police Misconduct Lawyer Referral Service, a nonprofit group that investigates citizen complaints against law enforcement agencies, said the televised tape makes it clear that Dickey pushed Jackson's head and right arm through the window. Spokesman David Lynn maintained that Hill, the driver of the car, was not violating any traffic laws when he was stopped. The group also complained that Dickey also used a string of obscenities in his conversation with Jackson, who was booked for suspicion of using offensive language, challenging an officer to fight and obstructing arrest. He was released on his own recognizance pending a Jan. 25 court appearance. Clarence Smith, the only black member of the Long Beach City Council, said he found the tape "shocking." But other city officials argued that the television footage was not necessarily conclusive because it showed the altercation from only one angle and showed Jackson and Dickey only from the waist up. "It's real hard to tell what's happening below the waist," said Councilman Evan Anderson Braude, maintaining that it is vital that NBC release the rest of its videotapes. Concedes Error by Officer Attorney Hannon conceded that Dickey was wrong to spice his orders to Jackson with obscenities, but he said the cursing was evidence of discourtesy, rather than racism. He said the two officers saw the car weave within the traffic lane and wanted to check the driver for drunkenness. Although the two men in the car were black, driving an old car and dressed in shabby clothes, they were not stopped for those reasons, the lawyer said, adding that they were in a section of the city where their appearance was not unusual. "Obviously, they are not telling the truth when they say they did nothing to bring attention to themselves," Hannon said of Jackson and Hill. He said the two police officers become concerned for their safety when Jackson suspiciously exited the car as soon as it stopped, then immediately started arguing when Dickey ordered him to submit to a search for weapons. 'Proper Police Tactics' "The officer, using proper police tactics, pushed him up (against) the side of a building and unfortunately, the window broke," Hannon said. "I'm sure neither Mr. Jackson nor the officer wanted the window to break, because it was dangerous." He said Jackson had an eye for the camera when he screamed as Dickey moved him over to the police cruiser for arrest. He said Dickey, who has been on the police force for four years, had one earlier complaint about his conduct, which was investigated by the department and determined to be unfounded.

investigation;dickey;police brutality;civil rights violation;los angeles;jackson;police force

LA012090-0090

LANDSCAPING CAN BE 1ST LINE OF DEFENSE AGAINST WILDFIRE; GARDENING

Most Southern Californians would agree that hills and canyons are among the most desirable places to live. But these wild, yet settled, places at the edge of the metropolis -- what botanists sometimes call "the urban-chaparral interface" -- are the properties most threatened by wildfire. While little can be done to control the natural fires that occur in chaparral country, homeowners can change their approach to landscaping and help improve the chances of their homes and property surviving a brush fire. "The idea behind fire-resistant landscaping -- firescaping -- is to design landscaping to minimize the fire hazard," says Owen Dell, a Santa Barbara landscape contractor who has many canyon and hillside homeowners as clients. Dell became interested in the concept after the 1977 Sycamore Canyon fire in which 200 homes were lost and only a shift in the wind prevented the loss of additional Santa Barbara residences. After the fire, Dell began studying its effects. "Many of my clients lost property, but the fire jumped from house to house, then skipped others. I realized that the landscaping had a relationship to the amount of devastation." Dell, the Santa Barbara City Fire Department, the city government and a number of volunteers combined their efforts and began planning the Santa Barbara Firescapes Demonstration Garden to educate the public about reducing the risks of wildfire near their homes. The concept behind the garden is that while no plant is fireproof, some are more flammable than others. The garden is a model of how to design and maintain landscaping around the home to provide a line of defense against fire. The garden is landscaped into four plant zones, with the most flammable vegetation planted farthest from the house. Zone 4, farthest from the house, consists of native vegetation that has been thinned to reduce the amount of fuel that could feed a fire. Native chaparral flora, including oaks, ceanothus and manzanita, are found here. Zone 3 includes plants selected for their low profile and slow-burning characteristics. Wildflowers such as Pacific Coast iris, monkeyflower and California poppies add a splash of color to this zone. Zone 2 features highly fire-retardant succulents. It's designed to be a greenbelt zone of maximum fire protection. Jade, aloe vera, phormium and evergreen currant are among the high-moisture-content plants characteristic of this zone. Zone 1, closest to the residence, is a small area of plants that pose little risk of burning. Cactus, tobira and shiny leaf jasmine are examples of fire-resistant plants that still have a high aesthetic appeal. Some trees and plants are surprisingly hazardous. "Those eucalyptus trees," Dell says. "If one of those lights up near your house, there's no way to save it. And the Monterey pine -- it's so full of volatile oils, it's almost unbelievable." One popular plant found almost everywhere in Southern California -- ice plant -- would seem to be an ideal choice for a firescape garden. Actually, it can be a menace. The plant produces a great deal of litter beneath that succulent surface and can smolder for days. Two other surprisingly flammable flora are redwood trees and bougainvillea. Dell thinks several successive drought years have finally persuaded Southern Californians to rethink approaches to gardening. Suddenly, xeriscaping -- landscaping with drought-tolerant natives -- is becoming commonplace and fashionable. As Dell sees it, while many home gardeners have learned to deal with low-water conditions, they've virtually ignored another common Southern California occurrence -- wildfire. Just as appropriate landscaping can help gardeners with water shortages, so may careful landscaping help reduce the risk of significant property damage in the most fire-prone areas. The Firescapes Demonstration Garden is located across the street from City Fire Station 7 at 2411 Stanwood Drive and is open every day from 8 a.m. until sunset. A brochure available at the garden aids your exploration. For additional information, contact the Santa Barbara City Fire Department public education coordinator at (805) 564-5703. To reach the garden: From U.S. 101 in Santa Barbara, exit on Salinas Street and continue to a five-way intersection. Bear right (north) on Sycamore Canyon Road (144) to Stanwood Drive (192). Turn left and continue to the fire station, on your left, just opposite the garden. There's ample parking at the station, which is located on the corner of Stanwood Drive and Mission Ridge Road.

fire-resistant landscaping;firescape garden;southern californians;firescaping;fire-retardant succulents;ice plant;wildfire;firescapes demonstration garden;fire-resistant plants;four plant zones;maximum fire protection

LA012590-0174

EXXON RAISES VALDEZ CLEANUP COSTS TO $2 BILLION; EARNINGS: THE OIL GIANT WILL TAKE ANOTHER $500-MILLION CHARGE OVER THE SPILL, BRINGING ITS TAB FOR THE YEAR TO $1.38 BILLION.

Exxon Corp. on Wednesday increased its estimate of the total 1989 costs of cleaning up the massive Alaskan oil spill to $2 billion and said it would take another $500-million charge in the fourth quarter to cover costs from what is now the most expensive environmental disaster in history. In reporting its estimated 1989 earnings, Exxon said it would take a $500-million charge in the fourth quarter for costs to clean up the spill of 11 million gallons of oil that spilled from the grounded tanker Exxon Valdez and fouled the shoreline of pristine Prince William Sound last March. The charges reduced Exxon's 1989 net income to $3.8 billion, compared to $5.26 billion in 1988. Revenue totaled $96.1 billion in 1989, compared to $88.6 billion the year before. On Wednesday, Exxon spokesman William Smith upped the company's estimate of the spill's total costs so far -- costs to Exxon and others -- to "about $2 billion." The figure does not include any liability from more than 150 lawsuits Exxon faces from the spill, nor does it include additional cleanup costs should Exxon resume work in the spring. The fourth-quarter charge comes in addition to $880 million that the company already set aside in the first and second quarters, bringing Exxon's total cleanup costs for the year to $1.38 billion. Other costs will be covered by "more than $400 million" in insurance, Smith said. Analysts were not surprised at the additional charge, though "it was a lot bigger than I expected," said Joel D. Fischer, an analyst with Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. in New York. Wall Street showed little reaction to the news, with Exxon's stock falling only 12.5 cents to close at $47 a share. "The financial effect of the Exxon Valdez accident was clearly the major reason for lower net income in 1989," said Exxon Chairman Lawrence G. Rawl in a statement. The charges from the Valdez cleanup were partly offset by a one-time gain from a change in accounting methods in the first quarter as a result of changes in federal tax law. That raised Exxon's income by $535 million for the year. Without the cleanup charge and accounting gain, Exxon said its net income for the year would have been $4.7 billion, down 10.6% from 1988, despite higher oil and gas prices. The decline resulted mainly from slimmer refining and marketing profit margins and lower earnings from chemical operations. In the fourth quarter, earnings before the Valdez charge were $1.28 billion, compared to $1.38 billion in the 1988 quarter. Analysts said Exxon's size would insulate it from serious long-term financial damage from the charges. "I think they did end the year on a strong note, largely because of the strength in crude and natural gas pricing," said Eugene Nowak, an analyst with Dean Witter Reynolds Inc. in New York. Still, Exxon's stock, whose performance has lagged behind that of other major oil firms, could suffer from continuing negative publicity surrounding the Valdez spill and the subsequent spill of 567,000 gallons of heating oil into the Arthur Kill waterway between New York and New Jersey on Jan. 2. The bad press will undoubtedly be aggravated when the criminal trial begins next week of the Exxon Valdez's captain, Joseph Hazelwood. Smith declined to say what costs the new $500-million charge would cover. The previous charges covered everything from wages to boat rentals to boots, as well as payments so far of $177 million in claims by fishermen, cannery workers and other individuals affected by the spill, said Exxon spokesman James Robertson in Anchorage. In addition, the state of Alaska has asked Exxon to reimburse it for about $34.5 million in costs; so far, Exxon has paid the state $7.4 million in cash and has agreed to pay bills amounting to $23 million more, said the state's Oil Spill Coordinating Office. Exxon must also reimburse the U.S. Coast Guard and other federal agencies. Meanwhile, Exxon confirmed Wednesday that it would shut down its Denver exploration and production office, which employs about 105 people. The office's operations will be transferred to Midland, Tex. No decision has been made on the future of the workers in Denver, said Exxon spokesman Les Rogers in Houston.

exxon corp.;exxon valdez accident;tanker exxon valdez;lower net income;expensive environmental disaster;cleanup charge;total cleanup costs;revenue;valdez spill;financial effect;valdez cleanup;massive alaskan oil spill

LA021090-0005

GUN NUTS HAVE A REAL POINT; CONSTITUTION: THE CLIMATE MAY NOW BE RUNNING IN FAVOR OF MORE RESTRICTIONS, INCLUDING A BAN ON HANDGUNS. BUT THERE'S STILL THE SECOND AMENDMENT.

Around the world, national theologies are crumbling: communism, apartheid and, here in America, the worship of guns -- to foreigners, the single craziest thing about us. Do you sense an outbreak of sanity about gun control? I do. There was retired Chief Justice Warren Burger preaching sacrilege on the cover of Parade magazine a couple of weeks ago. A Time Magazine/Cable News Network poll reports that 87% of gun owners themselves favor a seven-day waiting period for handgun purchases; three-quarters favor registration of semi-automatic weapons and handguns, and half favor registration of rifles and shotguns. Unfortunately, there is the Second Amendment to the Constitution: "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed." Most right thinkers take comfort in that funny stuff about the militia. Since the amendment's stated purpose is arming state militias, they reason, it creates no individual right to own a gun. That reasoning is good enough for the ACLU. But would civil-libertarians be so stinting about an amendment they felt more fond of? Say, the First? The purpose of the First Amendment's free-speech guarantee was pretty clearly to protect political discourse. But liberals reject the notion that free speech is therefore limited to political topics, even broadly defined. True, that purpose is not inscribed in the amendment itself. But why leap to the conclusion that a broadly worded constitutional freedom ("the right of the people to keep and bear arms") is narrowly limited by its stated purpose, unless you're trying to explain it away? A colleague says that if liberals interpreted the Second Amendment the way they interpret the rest of the Bill of Rights, there would be law professors arguing that gun ownership is mandatory. The most thorough parsing of the Second Amendment is a 1983 article in the Michigan Law Review by Don Kates, a gun enthusiast. Kates expends most energy demonstrating that at the time of the Bill of Rights, all able-bodied men were considered to be part of the "militia" and were expected to defend the state if necessary. I'm not sure this is as clinching an argument as Kates seems to think. The fact that once upon a time everyone was a member of the militia doesn't prove that everyone still has a right to a gun even after the composition of the militia has changed. But Kates has other bullets in his belt. The phrase "right of the people" appears four other times in the Bill of Rights (including the First Amendment). In all these other cases, everyone agrees that it creates a right for individual citizens, not just some collective right of states as a whole. Kates also marshals impressive historical evidence that the Second Amendment, like other Bill of Rights protections, was intended to incorporate English common law rights of the time, which pretty clearly included the right to keep a gun in your home for reasons having nothing to do with the militia. If there is a good reply to Kates's fusillade, the controllers haven't made it. Of course the existence of an individual right to own guns doesn't mean that it is absolute. What are the limits? In the Supreme Court's one 20th-Century treatment of the Second Amendment, it held somewhat ambiguously in 1939 that sawed-off shotguns aren't necessarily protected by the Constitution without proof that they are the kind of weapon a militia might have used. Working from that decision and the common law, Kates says the amendment's protection should be limited to weapons "in common use among law-abiding people," useful for law enforcement or personal defense, and lineally descended from weapons known to the Framers. (No nuclear bombs.) He adds that they must be light enough for an ordinary person to carry ("bear"), and even that they can't be especially "dangerous or unusual." He says that the amendment places no limit on mandatory registration or laws against concealed weapons in public. This list seems quite reasonable and moderate, though where it all comes from is not clear. In suggesting, for example, that it would be fine to ban automatic rifles but not semi-automatics, Kates is slicing the constitutional salami pretty thin. But in what I suspect was the main purpose of his exercise -- establishing that a flat ban on handguns would be hard to justify under the Constitution -- Kates builds a distressingly good case. The downside of having a Bill of Rights is that the protection of individual rights usually entails social costs. This is as true of the Second Amendment as it is of the First, Fourth, Fifth and Sixth. The downside of having those rights inscribed in a Constitution, protected from the whims of majority rule, is that they can't be re-defined as life changes. It would be remarkable indeed if none of the Bill of Rights became less sensible and more burdensome with time. Talking and writing are as central to American democracy as they ever were; shooting just isn't. Gun nuts are unconvincing (at least to me) in their attempts to argue that the individual right to bear arms is still as vital to freedom as it was in 1792. But the right is still there.

gun ownership;right;gun control;law enforcement;kates;constitution;second amendment;handgun purchases

LA021689-0227

BEN JOHNSON'S STEROID USE TOLD

Ben Johnson's personal physician has said the disgraced Olympic sprinter took a banned steroid on one occasion four months before the Seoul Olympics last year, the Toronto Star newspaper reported today. Dr. Jamie Astaphan, in a telephone interview from the Caribbean island of St. Kitts, said Johnson was depressed last May by a hamstring injury that threatened to end his rivalry against Carl Lewis for the 100 meters Olympics gold medal. "He bought stanozolol or somebody bought it for him in Toronto," Astaphan told the newspaper. But immediately after taking it Johnson suffered "violent muscle spasms." "He was immediately brought to me and I nursed him back to top condition," he said. Astaphan said Johnson was not on stanozolol when he beat Lewis in a world-record time of 9.79 seconds for the 100 meters gold, a medal taken away from him when he then tested positive for stanozolol use by Olympics officials. Asked how he could be certain, Astaphan replied: "I must admit that even though I am his personal physician, there's no way I can keep a constant check on him. "But it would not make any sense for an athlete to go back on a drug which a few months previously could have ruined him for life." Johnson has said he never knowingly took performance-enhancing drugs. Astaphan has denied he ever prescribed such drugs to Johnson or other athletes on Canada's Olympics team. The Johnson scandal prompted Canada to call an inquiry into drug use in amateur sport that resumes hearings in Toronto next Wednesday. Commission counsel Robert Armstrong said it was "totally irresponsible that Dr. Astaphan made such statements outside of the commission and not under oath where they are available to be tested by cross-examination."

banned steroid;johnson scandal;stanozolol use;disgraced olympic sprinter;olympics gold medal;jamie astaphan;ben johnson;seoul olympics;personal physician

LA030489-0068

OFFICER ADMITS HE ERRED IN REPORT ON VIDEOTAPED ARREST

A white Long Beach police officer who allegedly pushed a black man through a plate-glass window during an arrest that was secretly videotaped by a television crew acknowledged Friday that he made errors in his official report. Officer Mark Dickey, speaking publicly for the first time since the Jan. 14 incident, told a state Senate oversight committee in sworn testimony that he had so little faith in his own report that he would not want it used against him if he were suspected of a crime. He blamed the discrepancies on a faulty memory, saying he wrote the report more than three hours after the altercation occurred. Dickey, who was testifying under subpoena, admitted under questioning that the black man, Don Jackson, never used profanity during the arrest as Dickey had indicated in his report. Dickey also admitted that he intended to inflict pain on Jackson when he put handcuffs on him as a way to control him. Police Misconduct Allegations Sen. Daniel Boatwright (D-Concord), chairman of the Senate Select Committee on State Procurement and Expenditure Practices, called the hearing into the incident to review allegations of police misconduct in Long Beach. The legislative committee monitors state funds disbursed to police departments by the state Police Officer Standards and Training Commission. The incident received nationwide attention after a camera hidden in Jackson's car videotaped the arrest, during which Dickey swore at Jackson after stopping his car for an alleged traffic violation and then appeared to push his head through a plate-glass window. Jackson, a Hawthorne police sergeant on disability leave and a self-styled crusader against police brutality, had gone to Long Beach that night with an NBC television crew following in a separate vehicle in what he termed a "sting" operation to validate reports of racism and brutality by Long Beach police officers. Investigations have been launched by the FBI, the Los Angeles County district attorney's office and the Long Beach Police Department. Dickey has been temporarily reassigned to a desk job, and Jackson was charged with interfering with a police officer. At the hearing, Boatwright repeatedly played the videotape while committee members and about 50 observers watched on television monitors and Dickey and Jackson commented on each scene. Boatwright questioned whether the car in which Jackson was riding was actually weaving -- the stated cause for the traffic stop -- and whether Jackson acted aggressively toward the officers, as Dickey said in his report. At one point, Boatwright asked Dickey: "You became the judge, jury and executioner as to whether he was challenged to a fight?" "No," Dickey tersely replied. Dickey's attorney, Michael Hannon, refused to allow Dickey to answer any more questions after nearly three hours of questioning because of what he called the "hostile and badgering" nature of the inquiry. "This little kangaroo court gives these politicians a chance to run for office. Any resemblance between this and a fair hearing is just imaginary," Hannon told reporters afterward. "They are taking stuff out of context and just badgering him with it." Earlier, under questioning by Boatwright and as the videotape was played, Dickey testified that the alleged infraction for which the Jackson car was stopped -- crossing the center divider -- occurred before it could be seen on a tape shot from the NBC chase vehicle, but he maintained that the tape does show Jackson's car weaving slowly within the traffic lane. Boatwright, standing in front of the television monitor, pointed out that a videotape shot from the Jackson car's rear window shows the street lights passing by in a consistent pattern -- indicating the car was not weaving. Dickey acknowledged that the police car he was driving "was weaving all over, too" as it tailed Jackson's car. Jackson, also testifying under subpoena, said that he and Jeff Hill, an off-duty federal corrections officer who drove the car, took great care not to break traffic laws when they cruised along Pacific Coast Highway in Long Beach. He alleged that in addition to pushing his face into the glass, Dickey hurt him by bending his fingers while handcuffing him and pushed his face into the hood of the police car. Also, Jackson alleged, officers refused three requests to loosen his handcuffs as he was taken to the police station. Dickey's eight-page police report, which was provided to reporters, states that Jackson was arrested for saying "offensive words," an allegation that was later dropped. But Dickey conceded at the hearing that it was he, not Jackson, who uttered obscenities. No Taunts Heard The report states that Jackson challenged the officer to fight, although Jackson never is heard taunting the officer on the tape. "There can be a fight without a verbal challenge," Dickey said, adding that Jackson's fists were clenched at his sides. Dickey said that he was swearing to try to alleviate his fear. He testified that he thought Jackson, who immediately stepped out of the car after it came to a halt, might be trying to provide a diversion for an armed partner in the car. He said his actions were an attempt to "accomplish my No. 1 job that night: to go home in one piece." At one point in the proceeding, Boatwright had Dickey and Jackson weighed in an attempt to show that Jackson is shorter and weighs less than the officer. At another point, Boatwright assumed the role of Dickey and had Dickey play Jackson in trying to demonstrate the type of hold Dickey used on Jackson during the arrest. Boatwright contended that in using that type of hold the officer would have had to push Jackson into the window deliberately. Dickey denied it. The officer said Jackson's face crashed through the window when Jackson suddenly pulled forward. Jackson, according to Dickey, struck the window with his elbows and not with his face as Jackson contends. Dickey, who cut his hand, noted that Jackson suffered no facial injuries when the glass shattered. Jackson, in his testimony, defended his self-appointed role as a police anti-brutality activist, saying "my duty is to uphold the law and I am doing that in the highest tradition." He said he is troubled, though, that Long Beach police are investigating his background on the Hawthorne Police Department rather than concentrating on the incident. Boatwright adjourned the hearing, which was held at the Hall of Administration in downtown Los Angeles, after about six hours of testimony. He said it would reconvene later to hear from the additional witnesses.

police officer;arrest;dickey;police brutality;don jackson;racism

LA030789-0047

ATTORNEY SAYS IMPLICATING LEWIS UNFAIR

Carl Lewis said he knew Ben Johnson was taking performance-enhancing drugs just after their 100-meter final last fall at the Seoul Olympics. "He got out of those blocks like a caged lion," Lewis said in an interview Sunday at the Los Angeles Marathon, where he was representing a sponsor. "How can anybody in the world do that after running all those rounds (preliminary heats)? "I said, 'Look, I don't know what he is taking or what he is doing, but he is doing something.' " Now Lewis has been implicated in an alleged sabotage of Johnson's drug test, which returned a positive result for the banned anabolic steroid stanozolol. At a Canadian inquiry into drug use in sport Monday at Toronto, Charlie Francis, a Canadian sprint coach, testified that Johnson might have drunk contaminated beer before a urinalysis. Francis based his theory on the fact that Johnson took the steroid furazabol three weeks before the Games, not the difficult-to-detect stanozolol. According to Francis' testimony, Johnson said that an unidentified man who had been talking with Lewis sat near the beer that was provided for the athletes to facilitate them in providing urine samples. Francis said that two witnesses told him that the stranger had spoken with Lewis in another area of the waiting room. Lewis had finished second to Johnson, who set a world record of 9.79 seconds in winning the 100-meter gold medal, and subsequently also had to be tested. "Any allocation or innuendo that Carl Lewis tampered with Ben Johnson's drink or sample is ludicrous," said David Greifinger, Lewis' attorney. "These sound like the last acts of desperate men who know they've committed wrong and see no other way out other than to continue to lie and to fabricate stories. "Charlie and Ben should own up to the fact that what they did was wrong, and should promise to never to do it again and move on with their lives. By continuing their present course of action they are just embarrassing themselves further." Lewis could not be reached for comment Monday. Though Johnson's gold medal and Seoul world-record time were both revoked, his world mark of 9.83 seconds stands. He set the record at the 1987 World Championships at Rome, where Lewis finished second in 9.93 seconds. Lewis said Sunday that officials of the International Amateur Athletics Federation should disallow Johnson's world record from Rome because Francis has testified his sprinter took drugs before the World Championships. If that were to happen, Lewis would replace Johnson as the world record-holder. IAAF officials, however, said the record will stand because Johnson passed a drug test after the 1987 race. "If it has been proven that he took drugs, I would think that (withdrawing the record) is the responsible thing for the sport," Lewis said Sunday. Lewis also contended that Francis' testimony painted a false picture as to why Johnson would take performance-enhancing drugs. According to testimony, since 1981 Johnson has taken such drugs as furazabol, stanozolol and the human growth hormone, which is taken from the pituitary glands of human cadavers or can be taken in synthetic form. The drugs induce the growth of muscle tissue, and some athletes claim, help performances. "He is trying to say that everyone was on it, so they got on it," Lewis said. "That's not true. They wanted to beat people. That's why they got on drugs." Lewis said track and field is not infested with steroid users as some are beginning to believe in light of the Canadian inquiry. He said about 90% of the athletes are drug-free. "Most of your great athletes are clean," Lewis said. "There are athletes who do have a problem. I can tell who's on it. I've been around it too long." Lewis, however, refused to implicate any of his colleagues. But Lewis defended Evelyn Ashford, a world-class sprinter who was implicated as a steroid user in Francis' testimony last week. Lewis and Ashford are teammates on the Santa Monica Track Club. "No way in the world does she take drugs," Lewis said, pounding a table. "She is a victim. That's going to happen. I don't think that will hurt her image because Evelyn is clean and she always stood for being clean. People who know her know it." In finishing second at the Olympics, Lewis set a U.S. record of 9.92 seconds. Even before Lewis replaced Johnson as the gold-medal winner two days after the race, the U.S. Olympian said he was happy with his result. "I've come to grips with the fact that I'm the best I can be and I can't ask for anything more," he said. "I'm doing what is right. I have to feel there is some merit to that. It didn't ease the pain of not winning and feeling he (Johnson) was on drugs. But it made me feel like I'm putting something back into track and field because I'm setting an example." Lewis called for Johnson to also become a role model. "I think Ben is 110% irresponsible in not coming out and telling kids to stay off drugs," he said. "He needs to stand up and say, 'Don't do it. Look what happened to me whether I knew it or not, make sure you know. Don't take it unless you know what it is.' "But he is perpetuating continued drug use. I think he's just lying to himself. The biggest thing about drug use is denial. Somebody takes cocaine because they want to get high. Some people take steroids because they want to run faster. It's the same thing. You're trying to cheat somehow." Lewis, who won four gold medals at the 1984 Summer Games and has been one of the great sprinters and long jumpers in track and field, said he is determined to help the sport's image. "That's what people don't realize," he said. "I could leave it all alone but the thing is, I want track to be a better sport than when I came. If anybody gets what they deserve in track and field, it's me. I make the most money, I get the appearances. But I still believe that through it all I want to help every single person whether they make $50 a meet or near what I make." Lewis said his deep-rooted conviction comes from his parents, who raised him to stand by his beliefs. Lewis said their philosophy was inspired by the late Dr. Martin Luther King, who once said it is important to make such sacrifices. "That people cannot sacrifice for something in their life, whether it is a small insignificant thing to others or a big thing to the world, what's the use of living?" Lewis asked. "I feel if I can't sacrifice myself for the betterment of other people in track and field, well, then I cannot leave a legacy that will be remembered."

carl lewis;world record-holder;drug test;ben johnson;seoul olympics;performance-enhancing drugs;drug use;steroid furazabol;anabolic steroid stanozolol

LA030889-0163

JOHNSON WAS WORRIED ABOUT TEST, FRANCIS' FRIEND SAYS

Canadian Coach Charlie Francis, who claimed that sprinter Ben Johnson's urine sample at the Seoul Olympics was spiked with a banned steroid, told an acquaintance in Seoul that Johnson had worried that he might test positive. Lynda Huey, who was at Seoul working for NBC-TV and as a physical therapist for some American athletes, said Tuesday that Francis had bragged to her about Johnson's preparations for a showdown against U.S. sprinter Carl Lewis. Huey said she had known Francis since 1980 when he and sprinter Angella Taylor Issajenko stayed at her home in Los Angeles. Huey said she had seen Francis on a practice track at Seoul and he had greeted her as an old friend. "Charlie came over to me and we started talking," Huey said. "We were talking about how Ben might do. Charlie said, 'Ben's more afraid of failing the drug test than he is of Carl Lewis.' He was bragging." Huey said she is tired of hearing Francis, who has been in Toronto testifying at a Canadian inquiry into drug use in sport, say that Johnson was clean at the Olympics. Francis testified that Johnson was not taking the steroid, stanozolol, before the Games and that a mysterious person might have slipped something into Johnson's beverage in the drug-testing area before the sprinter gave his urine specimen. Clean or not, Huey said, "Francis must have had some reason to think Ben may not pass the test." JULIE CART

canadian inquiry;banned steroid;sprinter ben johnson;canadian coach charlie francis;seoul olympics;urine sample;u.s. sprinter carl lewis;lynda huey;drug use

LA032589-0044

TANKER SPILLS OIL AFTER HITTING REEF OFF ALASKA

A Long Beach-bound Exxon oil tanker ran aground on a reef Friday and spilled an estimated 8.4 million gallons of crude oil into Alaska's Prince William Sound, a pristine Pacific waterway heavily used by kayakers, fishermen and tourists. It was the largest Alaskan oil spill ever. The Exxon Valdez, a 987-foot tanker owned by Exxon Shipping Co., rammed the reef about 25 miles from the city of Valdez, the northernmost ice-free port in the United States, at 12:30 a.m. Coast Guard officers speculated that the ship's captain may have been trying to avoid icebergs from the nearby Columbia Glacier when the accident occurred. Leak a Mere Trickle A representative of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said the tanker had been spilling oil at a rate of 10,000 barrels an hour but the Coast Guard said the leak had become a mere trickle by 2:30 p.m., Alaska time. U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer John Gonzales said in a telephone interview from Valdez that the spill was staying "in the mid-channel" and did not seem to be moving toward the shore. "We've had no report of any wildlife hurt at this time," he said. But environmentalists feared that if the oil reached the shore, marine birds would be threatened. Herring hatch at this time of year and attract up to 20,000 sea birds for the feast. Environmentalists also expressed concern about whales, sea lions and other wildlife. Twenty people were aboard the ship but there were no immediate reports of injuries, said Dave Parish, a spokesman for Exxon USA, in a telephone interview from Anchorage. He said three planes from British Columbia, California and England had been dispatched to the scene for aerial spraying to dilute the oil. Gonzales said 200,000 barrels spilled into the sea. Another Exxon tanker was attempting to pump the oil out of the crippled vessel, and two Coast Guard investigators were on board the Valdez, he said. Jon Nelson, a deputy regional director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Anchorage, said the reef ripped a 150-foot gash in the vessel, which was carrying 1.2 million barrels of oil, and there was fear that the tanker could break apart further. "If it breaks up on the rocks, then anything could happen," he said in a telephone interview. The seas were calm Friday and the forecast was for continued calm until Sunday. Infuriated local residents and environmentalists complained about the slow pace of the cleanup. Critical of Efforts "Where was the crackerjack response team that was supposed to be out there? They are moving way too slowly," said University of Alaska professor Richard Steiner, who flew over the slick Friday. "There (was) no oil (cleanup equipment) out there and it's been 14 hours since it happened. "It is huge, literally huge," he said in a telephone interview from Cordova. "It looks devastating. The slick is probably five miles long by three miles wide. Fortunately, there is no wind. . . . We saw six sea lions inside the slick, swimming, trying to avoid it, and they had no idea which way to go." Cindy Lowry, Alaska regional director for Greenpeace, also complained about the pace of the cleanup. "It is more than 12 hours later and there is no (cleanup) boom, no sweepers. They are bringing equipment from as far away as England. It is just absurd that the equipment is not here already. . . . This will affect everything in the food chain, from crab larvae to orca whales." Exxon's Parish said everything possible was being done. "It takes time to get activated," he said. The immediate response to the spill was handled by crews from the terminal at Valdez. Floating Oil Booms Gonzales, the Coast Guard spokesman, said the terminal has cleanup equipment on site for minor spills. He said employees of the Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., which operates the trans-Alaska oil pipeline for a consortium of oil companies, were getting floating oil booms in place by late afternoon. Prince William Sound, home to orcas, sea otters and fur seals, is important to both the fishing and the recreation industries. "It's a gorgeous marine environment and ecosystem, with lots of little islands and inlets and bays," said Emily Barneet, Alaska issues specialist for the Sierra Club in Anchorage. "It's also a pretty well-established tourist attraction, with sailing and glacier viewing trips. Prince William is a gem." The spill is expected to add fuel to a campaign by environmentalists to prevent further oil development in Alaska, particularly in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. "It's of concern for two reasons: one is the size of the spill and that this is such a sensitive, very productive area," said Lisa Speer, senior staff scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council in New York. "This is a consequence of North Slope oil development that is rarely mentioned." Valdez City Manager Doug Griffen told the Associated Press that the 800-mile trans-Alaska pipeline, which carries oil from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez and the marine terminal, has a good environmental record. Expected Worst "But this could be a catastrophic occurrence, so we're concerned," he said. "Living in Valdez, we've always worried that sometime something like this could happen." Alaska Gov. Steve Cowper arrived in Valdez on Friday to evaluate the spill. He said that state officials were considering the use of chemicals to disperse and sink the oil. "The problem is that chemical use can have a bad effect on marine life," he said. "It's going to be a tough judgment call." Cowper said that conventional responses, such as booms, probably would not work because the spill is so large. "You probably couldn't do it (contain the spill) with all the equipment available in North America. This is a major spill by any reckoning. "We've been able to brag for a long time that there's never been a major oil spill in Valdez Harbor. Now, we can't do that anymore."

exxon valdez;alaskan oil spill;long beach-bound exxon oil tanker;cleanup equipment;crude oil;wildlife hurt

LA032789-0038

ALASKA TANKER PILOTED BY UNQUALIFIED OFFICER; EXXON UNABLE TO EXPLAIN CAPTAIN'S ABSENCE; RISING WINDS STIR FEARS OF OIL SLICK DAMAGE

An unqualified mate was piloting the Exxon Valdez -- violating both Coast Guard regulations and company policy -- when the tanker crashed into rocks, unleashing the worst oil spill in U.S. history, Exxon Shipping Co. said Sunday. Exxon also disclosed that the Long Beach-bound tanker actually was involved in two separate accidents that night in pristine Prince William Sound. Meanwhile, winds kicked up around the crippled ship, stirring fears that choppy waters could destabilize the Exxon Valdez and sweep the slick ashore. Wildlife experts were summoned from California to coordinate any efforts to rescue birds and sea otters, whose feathers and fur make them the most vulnerable to oil contamination. Oil-Covered Birds, Otters Biologists already have counted 95 birds and two otters covered with oil but were unable to capture them for cleaning. Killer whales, sea lions and ducks also have been spotted swimming in the muck. Cleanup efforts continued slowly, and Alaska Gov. Steve Cowper declared Prince William Sound a disaster area, freeing state resources for cleanup and paving the way for a federal disaster declaration. Many questions about the disaster remained unanswered. Still unexplained is why Third Mate Gregory Cousins was steering the 987-foot vessel through the tricky, iceberg-dotted waters on Friday. Frank Iarossi, president of Exxon Shipping, told reporters that Capt. Joseph Hazelwood was one flight below the bridge in his cabin when the Exxon Valdez hit the first jagged rock pinnacle about a mile outside shipping lanes. The ship then "slid about two miles" under full power and hit more underwater rocks, Iarossi said. At no time did the ship lose steering, he added. Iarossi said he did not know whether Hazelwood took the wheel after the first accident, or how much time elapsed between the two incidents. There would have been no reason for the 42-year-old captain to go below to use the bathroom or get coffee, since both are available on the bridge, Iarossi said. "I agree something is missing," Iarossi told reporters and local residents at a press conference. Cousins, a three-year employee of Exxon, did not have the Coast Guard certification required to pilot through the sound but was qualified under other circumstances to steer the ship, Iarossi said. Puts Off Filing Charges "We're not going to file any charges until we are done with our investigation," said Coast Guard spokesman Todd Nelson. "The Coast Guard may seem slow and plodding at times, but if we file charges, we're going to make them stick," he added. Nelson said piloting a ship without proper certification is a civil, not criminal, violation, which ultimately could result in suspension or revocation of the captain's license. Exxon has not made any of the Exxon Valdez's 20 crew members available for interviews. The Coast Guard served subpoenas Saturday on the captain, helmsman and third mate to ensure that they make themselves available to investigators. A team from the National Transportation Safety Board arrived Sunday to probe the cause of the accident. Experts from the International Bird Rescue Center in Berkeley, Calif., set up a rehabilitation center here Sunday in case oiled birds are captured. Otter experts from Hubbs Marine Research Institute at Sea World in San Diego were due to arrive today. But even if animals turn up in distress, rescues may not be feasible. "Human life and safety is more important," said Pamela Bergmann, the Department of the Interior representative assessing the situation. She said it might be too perilous to try to capture panicky birds and otters from boats in the frigid water, and there is no road access to the shores where they are likely to show up. A monitor from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service said he felt encouraged about impact on the area's abundant marine life after patrolling the 50-square-mile slick by boat Saturday. "The reason we haven't seen a large number of birds affected so far is that the oil is out in the middle of the sound," said Everett Robinson-Wilson, the agency's environmental contaminant coordinator. "The weather will help us or kill us," he added. Winds of up to 35 m.p.h. were expected by today. Neither Exxon nor the state and federal agencies involved in the operation could say how much oil had been mopped up or what percentage of the slick is contained. The Exxon Valdez spewed about 250,000 barrels of North Slope crude into the ice-blue waters. Another 1 million barrels remain aboard the damaged ship, but no new leakage has been reported. Pumps were being used to siphon the remaining oil into a sister tanker Sunday, an operation expected to take up to a week. Salvagers hope the two-year-old Exxon Valdez will be able to float free once its load is lightened. Up to $20 Million Damages Iarossi estimated damage to the $125-million ship at $10 million to $20 million. Videotapes filmed by divers revealed 10 sizable holes in the ship's hull, ranging from 8 feet by 15 feet to 20 feet by 6 feet, Iarossi said. Rocks Charted He indicated that the rocks the ship hit were charted and well within range of the Exxon Valdez's navigational equipment. No disciplinary action has been taken against any crew members, Iarossi said. The executive promised to make public results of mandatory drug and alcohol tests on crew members. So far, oil has washed ashore only on two tiny islands in the sound, and beach cleanup efforts were under way. Hasn't Seen Plan "We have been told by Exxon that they will come up with an organized cleanup plan, but we've yet to see one," said Barbara Holian, spokeswoman for the state Department of Environmental Conservation. The agency is studying its "legal options" and may ask the Coast Guard to take over the cleanup from Exxon, she said. At Coast Guard offices here, Nelson said such a move was unlikely. "The Coast Guard doesn't have tons and tons of its own equipment, and it would have to hire the same people Exxon has," Nelson said. "That would just slow things down. "Right now, Exxon is the oil company with the deep pockets, and it's cleaning up its own spill within federal guidelines."

investigation;exxon shipping co.;separate accidents;unqualified mate;long beach-bound tanker;federal disaster;cleanup efforts;exxon valdez spill;oil contamination;oil spill;environmental conservation;coast guard regulations;pilot

LA040689-0056

SHIP REFLOATED; FORMER SKIPPER GIVES SELF UP

Exxon salvage crews successfully refloated the stricken tanker Exxon Valdez on Wednesday as the former captain of the vessel surrendered to authorities in New York to face criminal charges in the massive oil spill. Joseph Hazelwood, 42, surrendered to police in a Long Island suburb of New York City and hours later Judge Kenneth Rohl set bail at $500,000 -- 10 times what Alaskan authorities had sought. Hazelwood's lawyer said he had not decided whether to waive extradition proceedings and return to Alaska to face the charges; Hazelwood was not required to enter a plea Wednesday. Fired by Exxon After the Exxon Valdez ran aground on March 24, Hazelwood was found to be legally drunk and was fired by Exxon. Hazelwood left Alaska before local authorities could interview him, and had been pursued since Saturday on a fugitive warrant on three misdemeanor charges: operating a watercraft while intoxicated, reckless endangerment and negligent discharge of oil at sea. Together, those three charges have a maximum penalty of 27 months in prison and a $10,000 fine. "These misdemeanors are of such a magnitude that has never been equaled, at least in this country," Rohl said. "We have a man-made destruction that has not been equaled, probably, since Hiroshima." FBI officials in Washington say they also are investigating whether Hazelwood could be charged with felony violations of the Clean Water Act, which prohibits negligent discharge of pollutants into navigable waters. No people have been killed or even seriously injured by the spill, but oil has seriously disrupted the rich Prince William Sound fishing industry. Also, animal-rescue teams estimate the spill has killed several thousand birds and hundreds of sea otters. Estimates of wildlife deaths are not easy to make because oiled birds are hard to spot from the air, and many beaches are difficult to reach for in person inspections. In the wildlife-rich sound, cleanup crews continued to skim emulsified oil as thick as pudding. As of Wednesday, 12 days after the Exxon Valdez ran aground, the 240,000-barrel slick was estimated to affect an area the size of Delaware, and Exxon's fleet of oil-skimming boats had picked up only about 5% of the spilled oil. The state of Alaska condemned Exxon's cleanup on Wednesday and asked the Coast Guard to take over the effort. Rep. George Miller (D-Martinez), a senior member of the House Interior and Insular Affairs Committee added during a tour of Prince William Sound that fraud "is not too strong a word to describe Exxon's cleanup claims." "What they are really doing is managing the failure," Miller said after meeting with Aleut Indian residents in the tiny fishing village of Chenega Bay. Alaska Gov. Steve Cowper said the Coast Guard should be better able to handle coordination and management of the cleanup than Exxon, which he said was too bureaucratic. "Maybe that's been the problem all along. You need a military system to get things done," the governor said. Although Cowper said he did not want to be "extremely critical" of Exxon, a letter sent to the Coast Guard by a state environmental official said Exxon had been unresponsive. "Exxon has failed to provide . . . the information necessary to make sound planning recommendations regarding the cleanup of oil and the protection of resources," wrote Lynn Kent, chief of the state Oil and Hazardous Substance Spill Response Section. President Bush earlier had sent a team of high-level officials to Valdez and determined that federal management of the cleanup was not necessary. Rear Adm. Edward Nelson Jr., commander of the Coast Guard's 17th District in Juneau had no immediate reply to Cowper's request. Exxon spokesman Henry Beathard said the company disagreed with charges it was not handling the cleanup properly and thought Exxon was the best organization to manage the effort. "We gathered all the resources and organized the cleanup. We think the most effective and efficient way to carry out this project is (for Exxon) to continue," Beathard said. The tanker refloat went unexpectedly well. The 987-foot ship lifted off the reef three hours earlier than the Exxon salvage crew predicted, proceeding without problem under close watch of a flotilla of six tugs and other support craft, including the Coast Guard Cutter Rush, to a cove on uninhabited Naked Island 25 miles to the southwest, where repairs will be made. Even though a relatively well-known salvage technique was used to float the Valdez -- using compressed air to force water out of the ruptured hold and thus assist high tide in lifting the vessel off the rocks -- "we couldn't predict this by the exact hour or minute," said salvage coordinator Gary Gorski, who supervised from the ferry Glacier Queen II. Almost 1 million barrels of oil were pumped from the Exxon Valdez to three smaller tankers over the last 11 days, and the salvage process began as soon as the last of the tankers left for Southern California refineries on Tuesday. The ship was made airtight above the water line, and then, on Wednesday, compressed air was forced inside. The air forced out some of the 998,000 barrels of sea water that had been pumped into the stricken tanker as oil was removed. Naval architect Richard Smith, hired by Exxon, estimated before the refloat that the pressure would force enough water out of the hull to lift the ship at least three feet. He added that this technique also would produce a pressurized buffer of clean sea water between the oil left in the tanker -- about 15,000 to 20,000 barrels -- and the once-pristine waters off Valdez. Even so, Exxon officials warned in advance that refloating the ship could uncover additional oil that had been pinned in pockets between the ship's hull and rocky Bligh Reef. The Port of Valdez was closed at 10 a.m. to clear the iceberg-dotted waters of other vessels as the refloating was attempted and Coast Guard spokesman Bruce Pimental said that the vital oil terminal would remain closed until the stricken tanker was safely anchored. However, flow through the Alaskan pipeline returned to its normal daily flow of 2.1 million barrels Wednesday, the Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. said. Oil flow from the North Slope had been cut by 60% because the spill restricted tanker traffic in Valdez harbor, but traffic has increased. Gorski said that the ease with which the refloat was accomplished may indicate that the damage, while severe, may not be as bad as earlier feared. Exxon officials were reluctant to estimate how long temporary repairs would take or discuss where the tanker would be taken to permanently patch its hull and rebuild its internal pumping system, which also was compromised in the accident. Portland, Ore., was the company's first choice, but it backed away from that option after Oregon Gov. Neil E. Goldschmidt and managers of the Port of Portland expressed concern that the Exxon Valdez would still be leaking oil when it arrived there. Already under attack by Gov. Cowper for fouling Prince William Sound, Exxon said it would consider having the tanker repaired in the Far East -- Japan, Korea or Singapore. Even as it made that concession, the company denied its ship would endanger any port it visited for repair. Staff writer Larry B. Stammer in Valdez contributed to this report.

massive oil spill;stricken tanker exxon valdez;cleanup;alaska;joseph hazelwood;exxon salvage crews;wildlife deaths;criminal charges

LA040789-0051

ALASKA GOVERNOR THREATENS OIL SHUTDOWN OVER CLEANUP

Backed by public antipathy toward the Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster, Gov. Steve Cowper on Thursday threatened to close down the trans-Alaska oil pipeline unless its owners meet his terms for improved safety and cleanup measures. At the same time, it was disclosed that federal officials are probing the possibility that Exxon's 987-foot oil tanker was on autopilot shortly before it ran aground and that the electronic navigation aid confused the crew and contributed to the accident. After meeting personally with top executives from three of the seven oil companies that own the Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. earlier in the week, Cowper asked them to respond by noon Thursday to his six-point safety plan. As the deadline approached, the three companies -- ARCO Alaska, BP America and Exxon USA -- responded with a six-page list of ideas. An aide to the governor described the companies' response as "generally OK" but said that Cowper may issue an order putting his plan into effect anyway. In one proposed draft of an order, continuation of routine operations at the Alyeska Marine Terminal near the town of Valdez is described as creating "a substantial potential risk of additional oil spill" because the consortium has failed to demonstrate it can manage a large spill with minimal environmental effects. To reduce the risk, the order, which could be issued as soon as today, would require: -- A written description, due within 72 hours of the order's being signed, of the location of all oil-spill gear at the consortium's disposal. Equipment must be dedicated to oil-spill cleanup only. -- The names of 12 oil spill-response team members who do nothing but respond to oil spills and who are available for such duty 24 hours a day. Installation of Booms -- The installation of containment booms around all oil tankers in the harbor. -- Permanent restriction of tanker traffic to daylight hours. -- A limit of one tanker being loaded at a time until all designated cleanup equipment is in place, and the end of all loading within 72 hours if cleanup equipment is not ready. -- Demonstration by April 30 of adequate gear and supplies to handle another 10-million-gallon spill. Failure to comply with the emergency order would carry penalties that range from fines to criminal prosecution and jailing of company officials. "We want the oil industry to be ready for a spill of this magnitude if it happens tomorrow," Cowper said. "There is going to have to be a plan that satisfies us, our people, and it will be tough. If it isn't complied with, we don't have any remedy available to us except shut down the terminal. And we'll do it." State law gives the governor the authority to close the terminal if it does not meet state oil-cleanup plan requirements. Such a move would swiftly halt oil production in the state, and worsen supply problems in the lower 48 states. It also would badly pinch the state treasury, which relies on oil taxes and royalties for 85% of its income. Cowper said he would seek special legislation to tap Alaska's $10-billion Permanent Fund, a kind of super budget reserve, should any terminal shutdown last long enough to cause short-term funding woes for the state. Even if Cowper's shutdown were found to illegally interfere with interstate commerce and be overturned in court, it could last long enough to drive home a point about improving cleanup response plans. The Alyeska companies' offer included the immediate start of random drug and alcohol testing on board ships and the continued use of two-tugboat escorts beyond Bligh Reef, the shallows into which the Exxon Valdez crashed March 24 before leaking 240,000 barrels of oil into ecologically sensitive Prince William Sound. Alyeska also suggested expanding the Coast Guard's radar system, which had been scaled down as a cost-saving measure in the early 1980s, and offered to keep on hand additional equipment to contain, skim and disperse spills. Meanwhile, the chairman of Exxon Corp. told Congress Thursday that the third mate who was on the bridge of the Exxon Valdez when it ran aground has told company lawyers that he turned off the ship's automatic pilot in an effort to avoid the reef. "My understanding is that he turned that computer off and it was not as if it hit the rocks on automatic pilot," Exxon Chairman Lawrence G. Rawl said in testimony before the Senate Commerce Committee. Coast Guard spokesman Bruce Pimental in Valdez said investigators still are trying to determine if the autopilot actually was used the night of the accident and if it was, when it was turned off. Tom Kilpatrick of the California Maritime Academy, a former captain himself, said autopilots take full control of a ship once they are switched on. "The helm will not respond if it's in autopilot," he said. "That should be the first clue to people on the bridge that the autopilot is on." A Coast Guard official in Anchorage said the third mate in charge of the tanker shortly before it went aground did complain of being unable to get the vessel to respond to the helm. The nation's worst oil spill penetrated a national park Thursday, with an airborne spotter "seeing an oil sheen up on some of the rocks and seeing staining on the rocks" at Kenai Fjords National Park, park spokesman John Quinley said. However, favorable winds were still keeping most of the crude offshore, he said. Also on Thursday, the former captain of the Exxon Valdez, Joseph Hazelwood, left jail in New York after a judge slashed his bail from $500,000 to $25,000. Justice Thomas Starke said the earlier bail amount was "unconstitutionally excessive." Hazelwood, who lives with his wife and daughter in the Long Island community of Huntington, was ordered to return to court May 5 for extradition proceedings to Alaska, where he is wanted on three misdemeanor charges in the spill. The judge who had imposed the earlier bail is an environmentalist and former commercial fisherman. He called the spill "the worst man-made disaster since Hiroshima." Douglas Jehl contributed to this story from Washington.

trans-alaska oil pipeline;exxon valdez oil spill disaster;oil companies;cleanup response plans;gov. steve cowper;six-point safety plan;cleanup measures;oil-spill cleanup;oil spills;improved safety;minimal environmental effects

LA041889-0039

ETHIOPIAN WALTZES THROUGH BOSTON; MEKONNEN WINS IN 2:09:06; KRISTIANSEN FIRST IN 2:24:33

Out of the horn of Africa has emerged the most devastating and dominant group of marathon runners the world has seen. Or at least since the last time Ethiopia ventured from its athletic isolation and won three consecutive Olympic gold medals, putting its indelible stamp on the marathon. It appears to be happening again, a generation after Abebe Bikila ran barefoot through the darkened streets of Rome in 1960 to win the first of his two Olympic golds. Now it is Abebe Mekonnen, who was born the year Bikila won the 1964 Olympic Marathon in Tokyo and a nation named its baby boys after its hero. Mekonnen, a police lieutenant from Addis Ababa, made a furious rush with a mile to go, passing Juma Ikangaa of Tanzania and winning Monday's Boston Marathon in 2 hours 9 minutes 6 seconds. Ikangaa was second in 2:09:56. It was only the second time an African has won here. Ingrid Kristiansen of Norway easily won the women's race in 2:24:33 after abandoning her attempt to break 2:20. Kristiansen, the women's marathon world record-holder, started fast but slowed markedly on a hot day. With temperatures in the high 60s during the Patriot's Day race, it was about 20 degrees warmer than it was Sunday and all of last week. Still, Kristiansen finished 26th overall, believed to be the highest finish for a woman in this race. Joan Benoit Samuelson, who set a world record on this course in 1983, was beset with physical problems that altered her stride at 11 miles, and she finished ninth among the women in 2:37:52. It was the worst marathon performance of her career. It also was the first time Kristiansen had beaten Samuelson in a marathon. In an emotional news conference afterward, Samuelson, who won the first women's Olympic marathon in 1984 at Los Angeles, tearfully conceded that she might have run her last marathon for some time. But the story of Monday's 93rd Boston race was Mekonnen and his nation of 42 million, which has reemerged as a force to be reckoned with in marathon running. In two days, Ethiopian runners have won three major marathons. In Rotterdam on Sunday, Belayneh Dinsamo won in 2:08:39. Dinsamo holds the world record of 2:06:50, set last year on the same course. Also on Sunday, in the World Cup Marathon at Milan, Ethiopians finished 1-2. Keleke Metaferia won in 2:10:28, and Dereje Nedi was second in 2:10:36. Ethiopia beat Italy for the World Cup team title with a second-string team. Nearly a dozen Ethiopian runners have been deployed around the world in this hectic two-week period of spring marathons. Two other Ethiopians were in Monday's Boston race, placing ninth and 18th. And still another, Wodajo Bulti, who has run 2:08:44, is one of the favorites in the London Marathon next Sunday. Ethiopia's legacy to the world in the last decade has been one of drought, famine and ethnic civil war. More than 1 million people died in 1984-85 during a drought-caused famine. The plight of Ethiopians caught the imagination of the world and inspired rock musicians and others to organize benefit concerts. Because of internal disturbances, however, little of that aid ever reached the needy. Politically pro-Soviet, Ethiopia's Marxist government ordered boycotts of the Olympic Games in 1976, 1984 and 1988. Had they not boycotted, at least three Ethiopian runners would have been among the favorites in the men's marathon at Seoul. Despite its erratic participation, however, Ethiopia has a proud Olympic heritage, dating to 1956. One of the marathon's most enduring figures was Bikila, who won the marathon gold medal in 1960 and 1964. Ethiopia also took the marathon gold in 1968, when Mamo Wolde, 36, won at altitude in Mexico City. It is the altitude at which the Ethiopians train that enhances their aerobic capacity. Much of the central part of the country is mountainous, ranging in altitude from 6,000 to 15,000 feet. It was the first time since 1963 that an Ethiopian had run at Boston and Mekonnen, 24, made the most of it. He was among the pack of four African runners that led the 6,418 entrants race for 15 miles. At about mile 16, Mekonnen and Ikangaa took off, running at first side by side, then with Ikangaa holding a slight lead. And they ran not as strangers, because Mekonnen had beaten Ikangaa in winning last year's Tokyo Marathon. "I know him very well as a runner," Mekonnen said through an interpreter. "I knew that I should stay with him until the last (two miles). He's a good runner, but he does not have a good finish." Mekonnen and Kristiansen each earned $45,000. John Treacy of Ireland, who was third behind Ikangaa here last year, was third again in 2:10:24. "I knew that they had gone out very hard," Treacy said of the blistering early pace. Until the halfway point, the men were on a 2:04 pace, dangerous in Monday's heat. The pace got the best of Saimon Robert Haali of Tanzania, who led the race for five miles. He finished sixth. The women's race had only one leader, Kristiansen. She, too, set an incredible early pace. For the first few miles, before the heat, Kristiansen was running at a 2:17 pace. By the 17th mile, she had added more than 20 seconds to her mile splits. By her own reckoning, it was at almost 16 miles that Kristiansen felt the heat. "I decided to just win the race," she said. "It was too hot to set the world record." Samuelson held on to second place and even ran comfortably until about 11 miles, when she came undone. "I was prepared for hot weather and it certainly was hot, but the heat wasn't my problem today," Samuelson said. "I felt real easy the first 11 miles, I felt I was right in the groove. I was right where I wanted to be. "Before I came to Boston, I had a lot of problems with my hip and my back. At about 11 miles, it went very quickly. I lost my stride from that point. Lisa Weidenbach went flying by me at that point. Marguerite (Buist) went shortly thereafter. I kept thinking I'd pull it off. I didn't have the day I really wanted. I was duly humbled."

ingrid kristiansen;dominant group;african runners;ethiopia;abebe bikila;consecutive olympic gold medals;race;marathon runners

LA042190-0060

METRO DIGEST / LOCAL NEWS IN BRIEF: ELIZABETH TAYLOR'S DOCTORS WILL NOT FACE CHARGES

The Los Angeles County district attorney's office declined Friday to press charges against several physicians, ending its investigation into allegations that they over-prescribed painkillers to actress Elizabeth Taylor. In a written report, the district attorney's office said the prescribing practices "fell below the accepted standard of medical practice," but added that the doctors "were also attempting to deal with her addiction through alternative means of therapy and treatment, and . . . their conduct was devoid of criminal intent." The report said one of the physicians repeatedly tried to persuade her to enter a rehabilitation clinic but "these efforts to intervene were strongly resisted by Ms. Taylor until October, 1988." Taylor, 58, acknowledged a 35-year addiction to sleeping pills and painkillers and has been treated for alcohol and drug abuse at the Betty Ford Clinic in Rancho Mirage.

actress elizabeth taylor;rehabilitation clinic;investigation;ms. taylor;medical practice;physicians;painkillers

LA042290-0104

'MAD COW DISEASE' KILLS 10,000 CATTLE IN BRITAIN; LIVESTOCK: THE GOVERNMENT SEES ONLY A REMOTE RISK TO HUMANS. THE MALADY MAY BE SPREAD THROUGH CATTLE FEED.

"Mad cow disease" has killed 10,000 cattle, restricted the export market for Britain's cattle industry and raised fears about the safety of eating beef. The government insists that the disease poses only a remote risk to human health, but scientists still aren't certain what causes the disease or how it is transmitted. "I think everyone agrees that the risks are low," says Martin Raff, a neurobiologist at University College, London. "But they certainly are not zero. I have not changed my eating habits, but I certainly do wonder." Mad cow disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE, was diagnosed only in 1986. The symptoms are very much like scrapie, a sheep disease which has been in Britain since the 1700s. The incurable disease eats holes in the brains of its victims; in late stages a sick animal may act skittish or stagger drunkenly. The suspicion is that the disease was transmitted through cattle feed, which used to contain sheep by-products as a protein supplement. The government banned the use of sheep offal in cattle feed in June, 1988, and later banned the use of cattle brain, spleen, thymus, intestines and spinal cord in food for humans. Sheep offal is still used in pig and poultry feed. In March, the government announced that it would pay farmers 100% of market value or average market price, whichever is less, for each animal diagnosed with BSE. "I think it is a recognition -- not just of pressure from farmers -- but that the public would feel more confident that no BSE-infected animal would ever be likely to go anywhere near the food chain if there was 100% compensation," said Sir Simon Gourlay, president of the National Farmers Union. The disease struck one of his own cows, Gourlay said. "In the course of 24 hours, the animal went from being ostensibly quite normal to very vicious and totally disoriented." As of Feb. 9, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food said that 9,998 cattle have been destroyed after being diagnosed with BSE. The government has paid $6.1 million in compensation, and is budgeting $16 million for 1990. Ireland's Department of Agriculture and Food said about 20 cases have been confirmed there, all of them near the border with the British province of Northern Ireland. Because of the disease, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service in July banned imports of cattle, embryos and bull semen from Britain, said Margaret Webb, a USDA spokeswoman in Washington. Similar embargoes have been imposed by Australia, Finland, Israel, Sweden, West Germany and New Zealand, according to the Agriculture Ministry, and the European Community has proposed a ban on exports of British cattle older than 6 months. David Maclean, a junior agriculture minister, has complained of "BSE hysteria" in the media and has insisted that the risk of the disease passing to humans is "remote." The government has committed $19 million to finding the cause of the disease. A commission chaired by Sir Richard Southwood, a professor at Oxford University, reported last year that the cause of BSE "is quite unlike any bacteria or known viruses." The report said the disease is impossible to detect in apparently healthy animals because it does not prompt the immune system to produce antibodies. The Southwood report said it is "most unlikely" that the disease poses a threat to humans. But the report added: "If our assessments of these likelihoods are incorrect, the implications would be extremely serious." There is a human variant of spongiform encephalopathy, known as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. About two dozen cases were reported in Britain last year. Another form, known as kuru, had been found in cannibals in New Guinea. According to a report in the British Medical Journal, the incidence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is no higher in Britain than it is in countries free of scrapie. "It is urgent that the same reassurance can be given about the lack of effect of BSE on human health," a consultative committee reported to the Agriculture Ministry. The committee's report, released early this year, said it is only a "shrewd guess" that BSE is transmitted through sheep offal in cattle feed.

mad cow disease;exports;british cattle;bovine spongiform encephalopathy;sheep disease;bse;cattle feed;imports;ban

LA042490-0142

LIZ TAYLOR PUT ON VENTILATOR AFTER BIOPSY FOR PNEUMONIA

Elizabeth Taylor is breathing with the assistance of a ventilator after undergoing surgery aimed at determining the cause of pneumonia that has kept her hospitalized for three weeks, her physicians said Monday. The Academy Award-winning actress was admitted to St. John's Hospital in Santa Monica last week for treatment of the pneumonia, and was listed in serious condition in the hospital's intensive-care unit on Monday, her doctors said in a prepared statement. "She is seriously ill and on Sunday underwent a lung biopsy to further determine the cause of her pneumonia," the physicians' statement said. "After surgery, her breathing is now being assisted by a ventilator. "Her condition is presently stabilizing, and her physicians are pleased with her progress." The statement provided no additional details of Taylor's condition, and hospital officials declined to comment beyond the statement. Lisa del Favero, a New York City publicist for Taylor, said the actress is "seriously ill, but she's not on her deathbed. We're not talking about anything terminal." Taylor's doctors expect to have results of the biopsy by Thursday, she said. Del Favero said Taylor's four children -- Maria Burton-Carson, Liza Todd-Tivey and Christopher and Michael Wilding -- were with her at the hospital. Taking a biopsy on the actress is called Sutton's law in medicine, after legendary holdup man Willie (the Actor) Sutton who said he robbed banks "because that's where the money is," said Dr. John G. Mohler, a pulmonary disease specialist at the USC School of Medicine. "If you don't know what the trouble is, you grab a biopsy and study it, because that's where the problem is," Mohler explained. "The problem is not easily found another way. "You study the biopsy because that will dictate your therapy. If they (took a biopsy), I'm sure she was not responding to antibiotics." Mohler said Taylor's doctors are taking a prudent course by placing her on a ventilator. She suffered a near-fatal bout of pneumonia in 1961, and Mohler said "it would seem that there is something basically wrong with her lung structure or function. When she gets pneumonia, apparently it's more severe." Emphasizing that he has no personal familiarity with the actress's case, Mohler said he does not "blame her doctors for being conservative. Placing her on a ventilator would be a prudent and conservative thing to do, even if she didn't have any difficulty. It may just be a precautionary step in this case." Taylor, 58, entered Daniel Freeman Marina Hospital in Marina del Rey on April 10 suffering what her publicist then described as a "severe sinus infection." She was transferred to St. John's April 16 when her condition worsened. Dr. Patricia Murray, an infectious disease specialist, said in a statement last week that Taylor had pneumonia and was "being treated intravenously with antibiotics and will remain hospitalized (indefinitely)." Taylor has been plagued with health problems for years, particularly recurring back troubles that began with a fall from a horse during filming of the 1945 movie "National Velvet." In 1983, she acknowledged a 35-year addiction to sleeping pills and painkillers prescribed for a wide range of health problems. Taylor has been treated for alcohol and drug abuse problems at the Betty Ford Clinic.

st. john's hospital;elizabeth taylor;surgery;health problems;pneumonia;ventilator;serious condition;actress

LA042790-0205

LIZ BIZ; THROUGH SICK AND THIN, THE WORLD WATCHES TAYLOR

Her movies now are few and far between, but when she is ill, the world still stands at attention. Liz Taylor's latest bout with pneumonia has drawn the kind of intense scrutiny normally accorded presidential polyps. It has inspired a raft of rumors and handed up a field day for the giddy tabloids. And today, yet again, everyone is talking about La Liz. But then Liz Taylor, 58, has always lived a life of extremes. If she has enjoyed the most brilliant career and the glare of fame, she has also survived seven rocky marriages to six men, the frailest health and the most frightening bouts with addiction to booze, drugs and food. And through it all, there have been armies of press recording each divorce, each hospital stay. It was partly to still the gossips that Taylor's doctors called a press conference Wednesday at St. John's Hospital and Medical Center in Santa Monica. No AIDS, they said. No cancer. For the tabloid press had been humming with rumors that Liz Taylor had AIDS virtually since she was checked into Daniel Freeman Hospital in Marina del Rey April 9 with a high fever and sinus infection. And when Taylor's publicists first issued flat denials, the press went on to speculate about the speculation. Did the AIDS rumors start because of Taylor's ballyhooed friendship with publishing titan Malcolm Forbes, whose recent death touched off reports about his alleged homosexuality? Or was it because of her reputation as a major fund-raiser for the disease? Or because one of her doctors, Michael Roth, was a renowned AIDS specialist -- even though Roth was supervising her treatment for drug and alcohol addiction as early as 1983? "Liz is a national treasure and when she entered the hospital, I thought it was as important as the President of the U.S. going in and we treated it as such. Liz is as close to American royalty as you can have, and our readers . . . in the heartland . . . they're living and dying with her," said Barry Levine, Hollywood bureau chief of the Star, which featured a cover photograph of Liz, hooked up to an intravenous tube and oxygen mask, being transferred from the Marina del Rey hospital to St. John's. Levine declined comment on a rumor circulating among reporters that the tabloid had paid $50,000 for the pictures. Some press coverage has bent over backwards to tug at the bounds of credibility; the National Enquirer has Liz communing with the ghosts of Forbes and one-time husband Richard Burton. In all, Liz's current illness has drawn the most attention yet, according to her publicist, Chen Sam. More than 100 reporters, photographers and cameramen converged on St. John's, many of whom had flown in from around the country for the 15-minute press conference. Behind a chorus line of video cameras -- representing the major networks, the local stations, CNN and the tabloid shows -- reporters peppered the doctors with pointed and sometimes testy questions about Taylor's treatment and drug use. "I heard some guys talking behind me, saying, 'I can't believe they're hounding her like this.' I felt like saying, 'Are you offended reading about her?' " sniffed Val Richardson, a reporter from the Washington Times who'd flown in that morning. At any rate, the news was good. Taylor was off a respirator and breathing with the help of an oxygen mask. She had apparently rebounded from a bad weekend, when doctors feared she might die. Although Taylor's physicians are still trying to identify the virus, they are treating her for pneumonia with antibiotics. And she remains in the intensive-care unit, but she continues to improve and is expected to move to a regular room this weekend, Sam said Thursday. Meanwhile, her own security guards keep watch over her private room in intensive care. She has received her four children -- Christopher and Michael Wilding, Maria Burton-Carson and Liza Todd-Tivey -- friends Roddy McDowall and Carole Bayer Sager and Liz's younger, ex-trucker boyfriend, Larry Lee Fortensky, 38. "I saw her yesterday and I was really pleased," Sager said Wednesday. "I thought her color was good. She couldn't speak because she had the respirator. Her eyes were clear and she definitely understood what I said and motioned, made me know she understood." If Liz's public is fascinated by her frailties, perhaps reassured somehow by the knowledge that even the gods are vulnerable, their interest is also piqued by the public face she puts on her relentless brushes with illness and addiction. The Taylor wit shone through even Wednesday's press conference, when doctors passed on the actress' desire to "come out and wave at you, but she wasn't in her balcony attire." "I think she's extraordinarily brave," Sager said. "She just has an enormous reservoir of inner strength that she calls on when she has to. All of us were encouraged and optimistic." She has needed it. Taylor's respiratory ailments alone have been a recurring problem. Bronchitis and laryngitis brought down the curtain on numerous performances of "The Little Foxes," which Taylor starred in on Broadway in 1981, and Noel Coward's "Private Lives," which toured the country in 1983. The cancellations prompted the play's co-producer, Zev Bufman, to declare, "Bronchitis has plagued Elizabeth all her life." In fact, Taylor has been plagued by health woes ever since her 1945 film debut in "National Velvet"; her fall from a horse triggered a lifetime of back trouble. And when Taylor retired from films to marry the Republican senator from Virginia, John Warner, her well-being continued to make headlines; she choked on a chicken bone and wrenched her back after slipping on a carpet at a reception honoring former President Gerald R. Ford. Over the years she has endured about 20 major operations on her back, appendix, eyes and teeth; when the Asian flu threatened Taylor's life, doctors made a hole in her throat so she could breathe. But it has been her wrestling matches with weight and addiction that have consistently lured the world's curiosity and, at times, admiration. Taylor's unhappy stint as a politician's wife prompted her weight to balloon to 180 pounds. When she emerged a born-again beauty in 1985 after shedding 60 pounds, and wrote a beauty book to boot, she was applauded by many -- including comedian Joan Rivers, who had made fat-Liz jokes the mainstay of her act. "For somebody like me who is obsessive, it's amazing I was never a gambler," she said at the time. "I could have become anorexic. I got to a size 4 and said, 'Why not a size 2?' Then I slapped myself and went from 118 to 122, which is the right weight for me." But her battles against addiction have played havoc with her fight against the bulge. And her persistent back problems have nurtured her dependence on pills. Her addictions have even been linked to a criminal investigation by the Los Angeles County district attorney's office; last week, prosecutors announced that no charges would be filed against Taylor's doctors, who had been accused of over-prescribing dependence-forming drugs.

st. john's hospital;liz taylor;celebrity;pneumonia;rumors;addictions

LA043089-0197

FRESH OIL SHEEN SEEPS FROM EXXON VALDEZ

In Valdez, Alaska, the Coast Guard confirmed Saturday that a fresh oil sheen has seeped from the ruptured Exxon Valdez and that a complete cleanup of the damaged tanker is impossible. Later in the day in Juneau, a package of bills aimed at protecting Alaska from another devastating oil spill like the one that fouled Prince William Sound was passed by the state Senate with little trouble. "Oil is clinging to the tanks inside," said Vice Adm. Clyde Robbins, the federal on-the-scene coordinator. "What we're getting is that clinging oil mixed with water that causes sheen. "Unfortunately, it's impossible to completely remove the oil unless you steam-clean the tanker, and nobody intends to do that," Robbins said. Robbins did not give an estimate of how widespread the oil sheen, or shininess on the water's surface, had become. Time-Consuming Repairs He said he doubted the vessel, which is undergoing temporary repairs 30 miles from the March 24 site where the Exxon Valdez ruptured on a reef, will be moved soon. "I'm estimating at least a month to six weeks," he said. "Obviously, this (ship) is a hot potato. Nobody in the Lower 48 (states) wants it. We may end up going to a foreign port." Reacting to the largest oil spill in the nation's history, the Republican-led Senate acted with unusual speed to move the six bills through the chamber and to the House. However, it appeared unlikely that the Democrat-controlled House would approve the entire package before adjournment, which is scheduled for May 9. 11-Million-Gallon Spill The Senate action came five weeks after the tanker Exxon Valdez struck a reef, spewing more than 11 million gallons of crude oil into the fish- and wildlife-rich sound. The Senate bills would increase civil fines for spill damage; impose a surcharge on oil producers to boost the state's spill-response fund; prevent oil companies from deducting spill costs from their oil-production taxes; require the state to create spill contingency plans; establish a spill-response office and cleanup corps, and create a commission to investigate the Exxon Valdez spill. More Bills Pending More than a dozen other spill-related bills are still pending in both chambers of the Legislature. Exxon reported Saturday that it has paid out $500,000 to 150 fishermen on claims of lost work. It is processing another 300 claims.

spill-response fund;fresh oil sheen;tanker exxon valdez;alaska;spill damage;spill contingency plans;complete cleanup;exxon valdez spill;crude oil;spill costs;spill-related bills;devastating oil spill

LA050889-0075

LONG BEACH MARATHON; WILSON, YANMIN HAVE THE PATIENCE TO WIN WITH COURSE RECORDS

Patience is often difficult to muster for those who run the 26.2 miles of a marathon. The tendency is to want to finish the race as soon as possible and get a head start on recovering from it. Patience was its own virtue in the Long Beach Marathon Sunday, as the men's and women's winners shrewdly waited for others to make mistakes and for the sun -- which was obscured by cloud cover early in the race -- to burn through and take a toll on the runners. Rex Wilson of New Zealand patiently waited for the lead pack to sort itself out, took the lead at 10 miles and rolled to a victory in 2 hours 12 minutes 27 seconds, a course record. The old record of 2:13:22 was set in 1986 by Ric Sayre. Among the women, the race played itself out in a calm, if not orderly, fashion. Wen Yanmin, a 23-year-old student from Bejing, China, picked her way through a strung-out pack and out-kicked Laura Konatz of Toronto to win in 2:43:33, also a course record. Yanmin broke the old record of 2:44:51 set last year by Dianne Rodgers. Robert Molinatti of Huntington Beach won the wheelchair division in 1:47:59. Run as a race within a race was the Pacific Rim Marathon, which consists of teams from invited countries. Wilson and Yanmin won both the Long Beach Marathon and the Pacific Rim race, for total prize money of $9,500 each. Conditions were excellent at the start of the race, which had its largest-ever field of 4,021 entrants. The weather for the first 1 1/2 hours was cloudy and cool. But the mist burned off and the last eight miles -- the toughest portion of the marathon -- became even tougher. The refrain from the runners was, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity." The men's race was led at various times by a pack of about six runners. One by one they fell victim to the weather or other equally debilitating elements. Viktor Gural of the Soviet Union, who had been among the leaders for most of the race, said he had trouble with everything. Gural emphatically said it was too hot, "The sun went to work," was how he put it, and he said he experienced tenderness in his liver during the race. American food also did not agree with Gural -- his stomach was upset. He dropped from third to fifth in the race's final stages. Samson Obwocha, a Kenyan who lives in Gardena, waited for Gural to fade and then made his move. "I saw him struggling and I knew I could outkick him," Obwocha said. He did, and finished fourth in 2:28.08. Wilson also made a move, or more precisely, he continued his steady 5:03 mile pace while the rest of the field slowed from the early, faster pace. "I didn't really want to lead all the way," Wilson said. "But I wanted to run at 5-minute pace, so I had to lead." The strategy resulted in a personal best time in only his third marathon -- an event he dislikes. "I hate the marathon," Wilson, 28, said, sounding quite sensible. "At 21 miles I started to hurt. My legs were getting tired, my quads were getting tight. Those little bridges at the end were like mountains." Still, Wilson built a healthy lead on those "mountains" in Belmont Shores. Tomio Bueyoshi of Japan was second in 2:15:31 and Liu Wenzun of China was third in 2:19:16. Yanmin had to come from behind for her victory, giving the women's race an exciting finish. As happened in the men's race, the runners in the lead pack ebbed and eventually faded. Guadalupe Roman of Mexico led through much of the race but lost ground steadily in the last five miles and finished sixth. Two Soviet runners -- Irina Ruban and Tatiana Zueva -- who had run side-by-side in third and fourth place throughout the race, faded. Neither placed in the top 50. It fell to Konatz, who had been in first and second throughout the race, to hang in there. Even as the Chinese runner was bearing down on her as the finish line came into sight. Konatz was happy with her second place time of 2:43:50. Asked if she was ever aware of Yanmin during the race, Konatz laughed. "The marathon is an unpredictable event," she said. "I knew at 25 miles if someone had a good kick. . . . " Someone did. So did Ngaire Drake of New Zealand, who was third in 2:44:09.

long beach marathon;wen yanmin;patience;winners;race;rex wilson;course record