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SDG 13 aims to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, where the energy sector is again the major contributor to GHG emissions. |
The IEA is heavily engaged with the SDGs, notably as the lead custodian for tracking progress on the SDG indicators 7.2.1 (share of renewables in energy consumption) and 7.3.1 (rate of improvement in energy intensity). In addition, the IEA has been tracking developments in household access to electricity and clean cooking facilities since 2002 (IEA, 2017f). |
The global energy transition should be seen in the context of these energy-related SDGs. Much attention has focused on action to tackle climate change, the importance and urgency of which is recognised in the Paris Agreement as well as within the SDGs. |
However, climate change is one of many energy-related policy priorities and many countries – including G20 members – frame their climate contributions also in the context of other such policy goals, including ending poverty and reducing air pollution. |
The rest of this chapter compares and contrasts the evolution of the energy sector under existing and planned policies (the New Policies Scenario) with the outcomes of the two clean energy transition scenarios. |
The relative importance of emissions mitigation actions and different elements of the energy sector transition are assessed across the scenarios. |
Climate studies have indicated that global temperature rise is almost linearly proportional to cumulative emissions of CO2. This relationship has resulted in the concept of a remaining global “CO2 budget”, the cumulative amount of CO2 that can be emitted over a given timeframe to stand a good chance of the temperature rise remaining below a chosen threshold (IPCC, 2014). |
First, the process for relating GHG emissions to future temperature rises is subject to multiple complexities. |
The process for doing so is generally undertaken in stages. GHG emissions are first related to changes in atmospheric concentration of GHGs, then to changes in the Earth’s radiative forcing, and then to a temperature change. |
There are multiple feedbacks within this process, whose magnitudes cannot be directly observed, and each is subject to a variety of uncertainties. |
As a result, climate change can only be discussed in terms of the probability of staying below a specific temperature rise. |
Primary energy demand growth in the New Policies Scenario is substantially lower than in past years: global energy demand experienced average annual growth of 2% in the period 2000-2016 while this drops to less than 1% average annual in the period 2016-2050 in the New Policies Scenario. Energy efficiency plays a strong part even in this scenario, supported by the transition towards less energy-intensive forms of economic activity (such as services and light industry) in emerging economies (most notably China), and slower economic and population growth. |
Energy efficiency is expected to be a cornerstone feature of energy sector developments. Indeed, in the absence of current and planned efficiency measures, global final energy demand would be more than twice as large (incremental final demand of over 8500 million tonnes of oil equivalent [Mtoe]) without efficiency measures relative to 3850 Mtoe with the efficiency measures. |
In addition, whether or not the average global surface temperature rise can temporarily exceed the chosen threshold has important implications for the timing of mitigation efforts. Achieving a temperature overshoot would necessitate the widespread use of negative emissions technologies that can remove CO2 from the atmosphere: any emissions above the CO2 budget would need to be offset by negative emissions at a later date. |
Efficiency measures in the industry sector account for almost 50 % of the avoided energy demand in the New Policies Scenario in 2050. This reflects the addition of new capacity which brings down the overall intensity of the sector (new capacity tends to be more efficient than existing stock) and regulatory measures and standards that ensure efficient processes and technologies are adopted widely (e.g. preheating and pre-calcining equipment for cement kilns, low energy steel production routes and process integration in chemicals production). |
While the rate of growth of energy demand slows, primary energy demand for all fuels increases through to 2050, with the exception of traditional biomass, which declines as energy access policies bring cleaner cooking technologies to more households. |
There is almost no growth in coal over the projection period, with demand drops of nearly 40% in advanced economies between 2016 and 2050 being offset by growth in the rest of the world, most notably in developing countries in Asia. On a global basis, coal fuels around 20% of global electricity generation in 2050, around 16 percentage points less than today. |
Natural gas surpasses coal in the global energy mix shortly after 2030 and rivals oil, as the second-largest fuel in the energy mix in 2050. Power generation remains the largest user of natural gas throughout the outlook period, though demand from the industry sector grows strongly. |
The net effect of these trends is that the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix drops from 81% today to 72% in 2050. |
While nearly all energy sources expand in the New Policies Scenario, modern renewable sources take the largest share of growth. |
This pattern of demand growth means that energy-related CO2 emissions continue to grow in the New Policies Scenario to 2050, albeit at a much slower rate than that seen in recent decades. |
Emissions increase on average by around 130 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (Mt CO2) each year such that emissions in 2050 are around 15% higher than today’s level compared with the average annual growth rate of 450 Mt CO2 in the period 1990 to 2016. |
G20 countries account for about three-quarters of global CO2 emissions in 2050 in the New Policies Scenario. Overall, while the implementation of new and announced policies embodied in the New Policies Scenario helps to slow the growth in global CO2 emissions, the projected emissions increase shows that they fall well short of moving the energy sector onto a pathway consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. |
The Sustainable Development Scenario starts from a view of where the energy sector needs to go to meet three major elements and then works back to the present. It describes a pathway to achieve universal access to modern energy services by 2030, meaning that 1.3 billion people gain access to electricity and 3.2 billion people gain access to clean cooking. |
It sets a route that is consistent with the direction to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, including a peak in emissions as soon as possible, followed by a substantial decline. Third, it shows a large reduction in other energy-related pollutants, consistent with a dramatic improvement in global air quality and associated health benefits. |
the energy intensity per unit of economic output over the period such that total energy demand in 2050 is barely more than today’s level. |
Among the fossil fuels coal falls by the largest degree coal demand peaks before 2020 and falls by nearly 60% between 2016 and 2050 this decline is most pronounced in the power sector which sees an 80% drop over the outlook period and by 2050 there is almost no electricity generated using unabated coal-fired power plants. |
By 2050 more than 250 GW of coal-fired generation capacity is fitted with carbon capture and storage CCS though it is concentrated in a small number of countries with China accounting for more than 60% of global CCS capacity. |
Overall energy demand is broadly flat in the Sustainable Development Scenario with the growth in renewables roughly offsetting declines in coal and oil. |
The transport sector sees a near 50% drop in oil demand over the period to 2050 the only sector to exhibit any growth in oil demand in this scenario is petrochemicals where growth is connected to increased demand for plastics and chemical-based products. |
Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that grows above today’s levels in the Sustainable Development Scenario partly because its combustion emits not only lower levels of CO2 than coal and oil but also much lower air pollutant emissions virtually no sulfur dioxide SO2 and small levels of fine particulate matter PM25. |
natural gas helps reduce co2 and air pollutant emissions in sectors where electrification is a less viable option. in the power sector, baseload gas-fired generation continues to grow where there is still scope to displace coal yet the main role for gas-fired power is to provide operational flexibility to help integrate high levels of variable renewables. |
renewable sources of energy grow substantially in the sustainable development scenario. in the power sector, renewables provide 70% of total electricity generation in 2050 with wind and solar pv each providing around 20% of global electricity generation accompanied by slower growth in generation from hydro and geothermal sources. the direct use of renewables also increases in the industry and buildings sectors and in 2050 around 20% of their heat demand is directly supplied from renewable sources. |
the traditional use of biomass for cooking in developing countries declines by 80% in the sustainable development scenario as a result of explicit policies to minimise air pollution while achieving universal energy access by 2030. these policies encourage the use of alternative fuels for cooking including electricity liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas and the use of advanced cook stoves which reduce emissions of indoor air pollutants. |
by far the largest contributions to the reductions of co2 emissions in the sustainable development scenario come from energy efficiency and the use of renewables in power generation heat and transport. while emissions decline in all sectors power sector emissions fall to the largest extent an 80% drop between 2016 and 2050 with the average co2 intensity of the power fleet falling to 45 grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour gco2/kwh in 2050 from around 500 gco2/kwh today. |
all regions contribute to co2 emissions reductions in the sustainable development scenario but emissions in g20 countries peak earlier and decline at a faster pace than in other countries. |
The 66% 2 °C Scenario would represent an energy transition of exceptional scope, depth and speed. Global primary energy demand in the 66% 2 °C Scenario would remain broadly flat in the period to 2050, even with a near-tripling of the global economy. The energy intensity per unit of economic output would decline by nearly 3% on average each year between 2016 and 2050 (twice the average annual decline seen over the past 25 years). This would occur not only through the immediate and widespread implementation of strict energy efficiency standards but also by extending efficiency measures to the production and use of materials. This would include lightweighting of products such as plastic bottles, paper and cars, and increased recycling and re-use of materials; these measures are not included in the New Policies or Sustainable Development Scenarios. |
Natural gas fares best among the fossil fuels in the Sustainable Development and 66% 2 °C Scenarios. Natural gas results in fewer CO2 emissions than coal or oil when combusted and so switching from coal or oil to natural gas can provide some emissions reduction benefits, particularly in sectors where low- or zero-carbon alternatives are less viable or will take longer to reach maturity. |
The current level of methane emissions from oil and gas operations is uncertain. WEO-2017 estimated global oil- and gas-related methane emissions in 2016 to be around 76 Mt, with just over half of these emissions coming from natural gas operations. A variety of mitigation options and technologies are possible to reduce these emissions and in many cases these measures can end up paying for themselves, because the recovered methane can often be sold. |
Failure to achieve these reductions would make the climate objectives of the Sustainable Development and 66% 2 °C Scenarios harder to achieve and severely impede the role that natural gas can play in the energy sector transition envisaged in these scenarios. |
Perspectives for the Energy Transition: The Role of Energy Efficiency drop would be led by declines in the power sector (Figure 1.9). End-use oil consumption would peak before 2020, with the decline in demand accelerating over an extended period such that in 2050 demand would be 60% below today’s level. |
Despite the adoption of material efficiency displacing a substantial amount of plastics, the only sector in which oil demand would increase is again the petrochemical industry, albeit by less than in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Although natural gas would fare better than coal and oil in the 66% 2°C Scenario, demand would still be 20% lower than today by 2050. However, natural gas demand would increase in the shorter term, by around 15% between 2016 and 2025. |
There would be growth in natural gas demand in road transportation, as a marine bunker fuel and as a petrochemical feedstock, but during the period to 2025, most of this growth would stem from the power sector. During this period, generation from variable renewable electricity technologies would increase rapidly. However, this would still not be fast enough to offset entirely the loss of generation from coal-fired power plants. |
Gas-fired generation would be the key mechanism to fill the remaining gap. After 2025, with coal increasingly removed from power systems and an ever-increasing CO2 price, the tide would turn against the use of gas-fired generation to provide baseload electricity, and gas demand in the power sector would start to drop. With natural gas also steadily displaced from the buildings sector after 2025 as efficiency measures and low-carbon alternatives would be adopted, total gas demand would start to fall. |
All low-carbon energy technologies, including renewables, bioenergy, CCS and nuclear energy, would expand rapidly in the 66% 2°C Scenario. Growth in wind and solar PV would be most pronounced. By 2050, these two technologies alone would provide 35% of global electricity generation (compared with 5% today) despite the fact that total electricity generation would increase by 80% over this period. |
Perspectives for the Energy Transition: The Role of Energy Efficiency capacity in both the power and industry sectors would expand rapidly after 2025; in 2050 just over 4.0 Gt CO2 would be captured from these two sectors in roughly equal proportions. |
As a result, emissions from the power sector would fall by over 85% between 2016 and 2050, meaning that the electricity sector would account for less than 20% of total energy sector emissions in 2050. |
Perspectives for the Energy Transition: The Role of Energy Efficiency would fall by 65% between 2016 and 2050. Emissions from the industry sector would fall by just under 60% between 2016 and 2050 as a result of the comprehensive exploitation of all energy and material efficiency potentials, extensive deployment of CCS, a 35% increase in the use of electricity and a focus on the direct use of rene wables to provide heat. On a regional level, energy-related CO2 emissions in the G20 countries would fall by nearly 80% from today to less than 6 Gt in 2050 in the 66% 2°C Scenario. |
The future of the energy sector depicted by the three scenarios differs in several ways. The speed of the transition towards low-carbon energy sources is a principal factor, in particular between the New Policies Scenario and the two “clean energy transition scenarios” i.e. the Sustainable Development Scenario and the 66% 2°C Scenario. |
But this is not the only reason. The Sustainable Development Scenario contains the additional goals of achieving universal energy access by 2030 and minimising air pollutant emissions, and this helps to explain some of the differences between this scenario and the 66% 2°C Scenario. |
The degree to which governments introduce and tighten energy efficiency policies is a clear differentiator between the New Policies Scenario, and the two clean energy transition scenarios. While the global economy nearly triples in size between 2016 and 2050 in each scenario, primary energy demand is broadly flat in both clean energy transition scenarios. |
Differences in the outlook for oil and coal consumption between the scenarios are striking. For coal, there is a slow but steady rise in overall coal demand in the New Policies Scenario while there is a near-term peak and rapid decline in both of the clean energy transition scenarios. |
For oil, again there is no peak in overall demand in the New Policies Scenario but steady declines in both of the clean energy transition scenarios; by 2050 oil demand is respectively 40% and 65% lower in the Sustainable Development and 66% 2°C Scenarios than the New Policies Scenario. |
The only sector to exhibit growth in oil demand in the clean energy transition scenarios is petrochemicals. Indeed, the growth between 2016 and 2050 in the Sustainable Development Scenario (5.2 million barrels per day [mb/d]) is only marginally smaller than in the New Policies Scenario (6.2 mb/d) given the absence of substitution options away from oil. |
Growth in the 66% 2°C Scenario would be more muted (1.9 mb/d over the same period) given the additional measures going beyond energy efficiency to encourage material efficiency, such as lightweighting of end-user products (e.g. plastic bottles, paper and cars) and increased recycling and re-use of materials. |
Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that sees strong divergence between the two clean energy transition scenarios. Global gas demand in 2050 is 10% higher than today in the Sustainable Development Scenario, while in the 66% 2°C Scenario it would be 20% lower. |
Another major difference between the two clean energy transition scenarios is in levels of bioenergy consumption. The use of bioenergy in modern applications increases more rapidly in the 66% 2°C scenario: 250% increase between 2016 and 2050, compared to 150% in the Sustainable Development Scenario. |
Even in modern applications, biomass combustion gives rise to emissions of PM2.5, which need to be removed to minimize health impacts. This requires using post-combustion filters (where applicable and cost-effective against other options), which holds back further deployment in the Sustainable Development Scenario. |
Since tackling air pollution is not a core tenet of the 66% 2°C Scenarios, and given the intended faster emissions reductions in this scenario, modern bioenergy use in 2050 is therefore 40% greater than in the Sustainable Development Scenario. |
Overall levels of renewable electricity generation are somewhat similar in the two clean energy transition scenarios. Indeed, within the power sector, the rapid roll out of renewable sources of energy in both scenarios drives down the share of fossil fuels and supports the achievement of near-term emissions reductions. |
Again, however, the two clean energy transition scenarios require a much faster shift than is seen in the New Policies Scenario. |
Despite the higher share of electricity consumption in end-use sectors in Sustainable Development and 66% 2°C Scenarios, the absolute level of electricity demand growth in the two clean energy transition scenarios is actually lower in the industry and buildings sectors than in the New Policies Scenario. |
There is a major difference in electricity consumption growth in the transport sector between the two clean energy transition scenarios. |
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, electrification of the vehicle fleet is largely confined to passenger cars: by 2050 there are 1,400 million electric passenger cars on the road (around 65% of the passenger car fleet at that time). |
The largest contributions to global energy-related CO2 emissions abatement between the New Policies Scenario and the 66% 2°C Scenario would come from efficiency, electric vehicles, and the use of renewables (Figure 1.11). |
In the buildings sector in the 66% 2°C Scenario, it would require an unprecedented push for new buildings to be near zero-energy when constructed – around 40% of all new buildings built between today and 2050 would be zero-energy with the other 60% compliant with stringent building codes – along with deep retrofits of the entire existing building stock by 2050. In the industry sector, minimum energy performance standards (MEPs), along with the deployment of system-wide measures in industrial systems (such as predictive maintenance and proper systems sizing), would be critical to moderating energy demand growth in the 66% 2°C Scenario. Emissions reductions would also be generated through the lightweighting of end-user products and increased recycling and re-use of materials (most notably steel and aluminium), which lowers the level of new materials that are required and so also reduces energy use in the industry sector. |
Renewable energy technologies account for around 60% of the power sector CO2 emissions reductions in the 66% 2°C Scenario, relative to the New Policies Scenario. But renewables are also crucial in the transport sector, with nearly 12 mb/d of biofuels consumed in 2050 in the 66% 2°C Scenario in road freight transport where electrification is more difficult as well as in aviation and shipping, and in directly producing heat in the industry and buildings sectors. |
The New Policies Scenario requires an average of USD 2.7 trillion to be invested in the energy sector every year between 2017 and 2050 (Figure 1.12). The Sustainable Development Scenario requires around 15% more capital than the New Policies Scenario, while the 66% 2°C Scenario requires almost 25% more. These are not marked increases in overall terms; however there are major differences in how capital is allocated between the sectors. |
Continued investment in fossil fuels nevertheless remains vital in the Sustainable Development Scenario. This is because there is around a 15% increase in natural gas demand between 2016 and 2050, and while oil demand falls throughout the outlook period, the decline is slower than the decline in existing oil fields. |
Annual average investment in the power sector to 2050 is over USD 1 trillion, 20% higher than in the New Policies Scenario, which largely reflects the transition from fossil fuelled power plants to low-carbon technologies. |
However significant cost reductions in renewables-based electricity generation over time alleviate some of the increase in power sector capital investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario. To give some examples: the average cost of solar PV in 2030 in the Sustainable Development Scenario is around 55% below today’s levels; cost of CCS in the power sector are nearly 40% lower; and the cost of offshore wind is around 35% lower. |
There is also a modest increase (5%) in investment in electricity transmission and distribution networks above the level of the New Policies Scenario given that generation is more distributed in the Sustainable Development Scenario. |
Annual average power sector investment in the 66% 2°C Scenario between 2017 and 2050 would amount to around USD 1.15 trillion. This is nearly 12% higher than in the Sustainable Development Scenario, even though total electricity generation is only 8% higher, with part of this difference due to more nuclear capacity in the 66% 2°C Scenario. |
The New Policies Scenario requires average annual investment of USD 880 billion in end-use sectors, of which USD 630 billion per year is for efficiency technologies that moderate energy use. The costs of deploying these technologies falls over time but the efficiency mandates included in the New Policies Scenario require, on average, spending of nearly USD 650 billion every year between 2017 and 2050. |
The remaining portion is for end-use technologies to help reduce energy-related CO2 emissions directly, e.g. solar thermal in buildings, and the additional capital spent on electric or natural gas vehicles and trucks that displace the use of conventional vehicles. |
Investment required in end-use sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario is considerably higher, 60% more than in the New Policies Scenario, with average investment exceeding USD 1.4 trillion each year between 2017 and 2050. The largest share is for energy efficiency – requiring over USD 950 billion annual investment on average – and in particular more efficient technologies in the transport sector, where spending averages USD 460 billion per year (almost 20% more than in the New Policies Scenario). |
Policies Scenario). This is led by spending on more efficient household and office appliances, as well as more efficient forms of lighting, insulation, space heating and cooling. These measures are achieved through the introduction and strict enforcement of MEPS, stringent codes for new buildings and major programmes to retrofit existing buildings. |
Energy efficiency investment in the 66% 2 °C Scenario, which averages USD 1 trillion annually each year to 2050, would be only marginally higher than in the Sustainable Development Scenario. However this masks sectoral some differences. |
In the buildings sector, investment in efficiency measures would be around 35% larger in the 66% 2 °C Scenario than the Sustainable Development Scenario (and 150% more than in the New Policies Scenario). |
While the Sustainable Development and 66% 2 °C Scenarios do not have the exact same targets both set out a pathway to an important transition to a low-carbon energy future that can provide benefits to economies, communities and individuals. To make progress on this route, the urgency of shifting investment from fossil fuel supply towards improving energy efficiency performance and mobilising investment in efficiency across the main end-use sectors is a clear conclusion from this analysis. |
Given that the levels of efficiency investment are broadly similar in both of these clean energy transition scenarios, the rest of this report focuses on results in the 66% 2 °C Scenario, but what is clear is that achieving the reallocation of investment necessary to bring about the clean energy transition will require strong policy support that goes well beyond existing pledged ambitions. |
Energy efficiency investment covered in this report includes improvements achieved through more efficient technologies, better insulation of buildings and improved energy management in industrial processes. |
There is no standardised definition of energy efficiency investment. Consistent with recent IEA reports, this report defines energy efficiency investment as the additional expenditure made by households, firms and governments to improve the performance of their energy-using equipment above the average efficiency level of that equipment in the base year of 2016. |
energy efficiency plays a crucial role in achieving this goal as it can help reduce energy consumption and emissions. |
to achieve a low-carbon economy, we need to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. |
investing in energy efficiency can also help improve energy security and mitigate the impact of price volatility. |
a low-carbon economy requires significant changes in our energy systems, infrastructure, and behaviors. |
A decline in energy intensity of nearly 3% per year as projected in the 66% 2 °C Scenario would help to reduce final energy demand by 3750 Mtoe more than the People’s Republic of China and the European Union’s combined energy demand today in 2050 relative to the New Policies Scenario. Transport would account for around 40% of the savings industry for almost 30% and the buildings sector for about one-quarter. |
Electricity demand would reach about the same level as in the New Policies Scenario thanks to efficiency policies. However its share of total final energy demand would rise to 35% 25% in the New Policies Scenario as electricity would overtake oil as the main final energy carrier by the late 2030s. Direct and indirect CO2 emissions from final energy demand would fall by a combined 25 Gt or three-quarters relative to the New Policies Scenario. |
Increasing the efficiency of technologies is as important as improving performance of building envelopes. All buildings existing today would need to be retrofitted by 2050 and around 40% of new residential constructions would need to be near zero-energy buildings. |
Energy intensity of the industry sector in 2050 in the 66% 2 °C Scenario would be about a quarter below the level of the New Policies Scenario about half of today’s level. Demand for all energy carriers except renewables would fall particularly coal demand. Non-energy-intensive industries eg textiles food processing would contribute around 45% of the energy savings in 2050 relative to the New Policies Scenario. |
Energy-intensive sectors would also contribute to improved energy intensity and lower emissions accounting for more than 60% of coal and oil savings in the industry sector in 2050. |
Energy efficiency is a critical enabler of the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable energy system. Two clean energy transition scenarios are analysed in this report (see Chapter 1, Energy and emission trends to 2050). In both, energy efficiency improves at a rapid pace to meet the outcomes that define the scenarios. |
Improving energy efficiency is an essential pillar of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions in this scenario, alongside renewable energy sources. First, we analyse the required energy efficiency improvements in the 66% 2°C Scenario at the level of total final energy demand, followed by detail at sector and subsectoral levels. |
Energy efficiency is critical to achieve global emissions abatement. The world's need for energy is driven by demand for energy services across the end-use sectors, mainly buildings, industry, and transport. |
energy use in the buildings sector experiences a strong demand increase over the outlook period A significant increase in residential floor area in 2050 compared with today and an increase in services value added of 150% drives up energy demand in buildings by one-third in 2050 Therefore improving energy efficiency in buildings would require major efforts in terms of new policies and additional investment In the 66% 2 °C Scenario however a stronger focus on efficiency efforts would be needed to counterbalance the increase in services demand Key drivers of savings in the 66% 2 °C Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario would include |
efficient space heating and cooling, which are the result of both additional improvements in the average performanc e of building envelopes and higher average efficiency of the end-use equipment to deliver the space conditioning. A major factor in this regard would be an accelerated switch to heat pumps for space heating. |
Heavy industries , such as steel and cement making, account for almost two-thirds of all energy consumption in the industrial sector . Over the outlook period, energy consumption in the New Policies Scenario is expected to increase by an average of 1.1% per year or almost 4 5% to over 5 000 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 20 50. |
Oil accounts for more than 90% of energy use in the transport sector . In the outlook, rising incomes and growing trade drive demand for transport services , but there is a significant divergence between the scenarios in how this demand is satisfied. In the New Policies Scenario, oil demand in the transport sector rises by 0.5% per year on average over the period to 20 50. |
Attaining the CO₂ emissions reductions in the 66% 2 °C Scenario would require not only efforts to curb energy demand, but also a sea change in the way that demand is satisfied. By 20 50, energy efficiency would account for more than a third of the savings and play the largest role in reducing CO₂ emissions from industry in the 66% 2 °C Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario. |