diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_109.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_109.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_109.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +Little hypocrites need punished!! + +If hedge funds are unhappy they have themselves to blame. + +We ride on!! Crush them!! +This month alone I've saved like $300 just by bringing in my lunch Mon- Thurs. I spend maybe $15 a week on lunch groceries and spend an hour prepping (I just bring in salad, yogurt, and fruit). It's been great for my waistline and budget. Now I wish I could eat more at home for dinner, but it's lonely making food for yourself for one meal. Plus I'm out at least 4 days of the week. +Since I discovered a $12 monthly charge a while back when my account was automatically switched from a student account after I graduated and moved, I've been passing the warning along to those who might be unaware every year around graduation. Also a $5 maintenance fee on savings accounts. + +If you are job hunting and don't have much money or have dipped into your emergency funds you certainly are [getting charged](https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5a68a762e4b0dc592a0e91d6) without realizing it, or will be soon. This was in the ~~fine~~ print when you signed up for your free account, but most people don't tend to remember things that they agreed to as teens when going through crucial life changes like graduation or loss of a job. So I hope posting this again helps people like it did last time. + +A customer representative said there's nothing that can be done, so I recommend changing banks perhaps to a credit union if this may be a problem for you. + +Edit: TD Bank also does this as per another user. + +Edit 2: People are really salty that I've shared this information. If you are not job hunting, in really good financial shape, and already knew this then great, but this post isn't targeted at you. And yes, there *are* banks and credit unions that don't require this kind of fee to provide service. If you personally feel BoA is the best for your particular financial situation, that's totally okay too. + +Edit 3: Guys chill, I signed up for the account when I was 16. Yes yes, it's my mistake for not remembering. The point of this post is to help people avoid this mistake and to be aware that there are banks that don't do this. Last year I helped remind some people, and this year I hope to help some more people too. :) + +Edit 4: online banking and credit unions have been recommended (which I personally use), and if you absolutely need brick and mortar large chains for some reason USAA and +Capital One Bank have free accounts. + +Edit 5: If you go to close your BoA account, be sure to withdraw or transfer all your money *before* you tell them you want to close your account. They often will try to charge you $10 for the cashier's check to get your money back when you close your account. If you are overseas you're out of luck, there is virtually no way to close your account from overseas and you'll continue to be charged, so remember this before moving abroad or moving back to a country with no BoA. +Just a quick little reminder we should all sear into our ape brains. **They wouldn't have wasted more than a day or two on "meme stocks" if apes being dumb with money didn't have some sort of serious implications.** Now, their narrative has changed from people just throwing money away to people who could break the system. + +They are pitching FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in its purest form. When a cheater complains that they're still losing, you know you're doing something right. Remember that, especially during the dips. + + +\*Not an ad. I don’t work for anyone but myself. + +I am a freelance writer, and coffee is my savior. While I do most of my work in the early morning hours at home, I often go to what I call a “mobile office” a few days a week. This was usually either Starbucks or Panera. That turned out to be a problem, but I didn’t realize it. Coffee is freakin expensive. + +In general, a non-black coffee (specialty drinks) at Starbucks would cost someone around $5 a pop. If I worked there four days a week, that’s $20 a week and a whopping $1,040 a year. Hello, that’s IRA money. That’s tires on a vehicle. Hell, that’s just money that could go somewhere else. + +If I bumped that down to a black coffee, around $2.40 I think, that would be around $9.60 a week or approximately $500 a year. Much more reasonable, but still a bunch of money. + +Panera was the same way. Get a black coffee for around $2.40. However, now Panera has a monthly coffee subscription for $8.99. Let me tell you, this has SAVED me money. + +With their subscription, you can get: + +* Hot or iced coffee (not specialty coffees) +* Any of their hot teas +* Free refills if you don’t leave the store +* Another coffee every 2 hours if you do leave + +By working there four days a week and based on my regular work/coffee consumption, I spend around $0.56 per visit on coffee, but I refill it around four times. + +* From 4 days a week at Starbucks, this is approximately an 89% reduction in spending. +* From 4 days a week at Panera without a subscription, this is approximately a 77% reduction in spending. +* This saved me around $933 ANNUALLY if I kept going to Starbucks four days a week. +* This saved me around $392 ANNUALLY if I went to Panera and didn’t have the subscription and four days a week. + +What I find now, though, is that I go there every day and get coffee, even on non-workdays, and I do not spend any more on food than I would have regularly (which is almost never). I also have business meetings regularly at Panera, so I actually pay for two subscriptions. That way, both my guest and I can have unlimited coffee while we chat or work. + +I swear, this is not a Panera ad, but it is much calmer to do my work in Panera than at Starbucks. I still venture to the Bucks every now and then, but it is rare. + +Find ways to save money where you can. This worked for me because I already had a routine that revolved around Starbucks and Panera in the afternoons. + +Edit: This post triggered a bunch of people who think they're elite for not drinking coffee and saving more money than me. Listen, I can afford this habit regardless, but why wouldn't I take advantage of savings where I could? + +Edit 2: I DO BREW AT HOME. I work at home from 5am to 10am, but the afternoons at home are too hectic and filled with distractions. Listen, I can afford to buy coffee. The personal finance of this for me was finding a way to make it even more affordable. + +Edit 3: My Panera is set up with additional plugs and areas for people to work, so you can stop saying I'm being a nuisance. +Title says it. I’m 35 with 3.5m. Nowhere near fatfire territory yet but my income increased significantly last year to 7 figures so I might be there in next 5-10 years + +I have a partner with a NW much lower than mine- and I don’t know details because we don’t really discuss finances in details and we have separate budgets. Marriage is not on the cards for the moment (and i’m not in a common law state) but if the time comes, I would like to have a prenup. But I’m not sure how you would pitch it to your partner + +Asking this here rather than in the relationship sub, because rather than a broad relationship advice, I’m looking for advice on how to specifically discuss prenup. And frankly people here would be better positioned to discuss this from a practical perspective, as opposed to another forum where I might see comments from bunch of people with strong opinions about prenup but little experience in practice +I have been looking into the negative volume prints, because I agree it's very strange. However, just to be clear, I believe in Occam's Razor, and so am still under the impression that this is a bug or data glitch. Here's what I've done so far: + +* I have two data providers for this kind of information, one for raw market data and the other for historical fundamental data. Neither shows anything strange. This was not something that came in the raw market data feeds. The historical fundamental data provider I use shows this as the last 3 days' trading volumes: + +"date": "2021-05-06", "value": 2942802.0 + +"date": "2021-05-05", "value": 1789186.0 + +"date": "2021-05-04", "value": 4007512.0 + +* I do not see negative volume bars in Fidelity or Interactive Brokers. +* I reached out to a friend who is very high up at one of the exchanges. He had the same reaction to this as I have. Here is what he said: +Corrections to the tape are rarely (if ever) done. It's mostly cancels to ensure last sale is correct. There is no "input" for a negative number. Its cancel old and insert new. +If they use like a last sale feed for api from somewhere else - well that could be a bug. Can it be corroborated with other sources? + +If this is just TD Ameritrade, then it could simply be a bug on their side. If this is seen in other discount broker platforms, then the likeliest explanation is that they are all using the same data provider and there's some unexpected data coming down the pipe via API. + +So here's what I'd ask. First, if you see this somewhere other than TDA, let us know in the comments. My friend at the exchange is interested too. + +Second, reach out to your broker if you see it and ask what's going on. Let's see what they say, and I can let you know if they're bullshitting or not. + +Finally, I still don't see the mechanism for this to be indicative of any kind of margin call. I don't mean to throw cold water on it, but if there was a margin call of any size, the only way you'd know is from news reports. It would not show up in market data. Trades wouldn't be busted at the end of the day because of no collateral, at least as far as I've ever seen. I don't claim to know everything, but I've seen trades busted before and this isn't what it would look like. + +Hope this is helpful! +What is a bust out? + +In a bust-out scheme, the identity and credit line of a business are used to obtain loans and goods with no intention of repayment. In some instances, businesses are created for this sole purpose; in others, legitimate businesses are acquired and used for the fraud. + +[https://www.computerworld.com/article/2535189/opinion--bust-out-schemes-are-a-fraud-designed-to-make-you-go-bust.html](https://www.computerworld.com/article/2535189/opinion--bust-out-schemes-are-a-fraud-designed-to-make-you-go-bust.html) + +https://preview.redd.it/aalj7l5rbg271.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89f2a430cede4aa749c399c5b5496c6f50a28650 + +In this post I will go over what I believe is a scheme set out by Amazon to capture and kill companies for market share. The scheme involves Amazon identifying a target, and with the help of it’s gang members, Citadel and Bain Capital, it Busts Out the target using it to capture and kill other competitors in the process. + +In this story I will be talking about Citadel, Amazon and Bain Capital, but you could easily substitute any MM for Citadel, any company for Amazon (MSFT, NFLX, etc) and any Private Equity Firm for Bain (Apollo). I am simply using these 3 because they were the parties I have looked at. I guess you could say if you go looking for shit in a sewer, you're gonna find it, and the Finance and business world seems to be a pretty big sewer. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +In the beginning Amazon acquired the competition Legitimately: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jq97m01s9g271.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=acd2a96e5b039e1353ed05b3916dd97a1e9c9541 + +Amazon has been known for capturing market share of just about every sector of the retail space, and now has its eyes set on movies, and maybe at one point even wanted to get into the gaming sector. + +Amazon started relatively small, and set its sights on an easy target: Books. + +But, Bezos wasn’t actually interested in just books, he wanted to create a company that was so big and so dependent on retailers that retailers were dependent on it. + +Well in the early 2000s, around the time amazon was becoming known for selling a little more than just books, it also sold toys for Toys R Us and had a few other things on the site, Amazon wanted to branch out further. + +There were other companies that were already successful in the ecommerce world, so instead of starting from the ground up, and taking down their competition, amazon simply acquired the competition. + +Some notable acquisitions include Quidsi, and Zappos. + +&#x200B; + +**Quidsi** + +https://preview.redd.it/pdk5mwqz9g271.png?width=200&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bdca8a49a466ef809bad61d5ebe8be336663548 + +Quidsi was an awesome adversary, they had domains and successful businesses such as Diapers.com, YOYO.com and Wag.com. The acquisition of this one company cost amazon $545Million in 2010, it wasn’t cheap, but it was easier, and likely cheaper than taking on their competition head on. + +Diapers.com was a growing and successful online retailer of all things babies related and even had the first army of warehouse robots, the same robots used by Amazon today (KIVA) + +YOYO.com was a toy ecommerce company, acquiring these guys helped Amazon capture part of the toy market, especially after Toys R Us nuked their deal with Amazon. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ijhtn7o1ag271.jpg?width=311&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7511091c51c4de99cec7b7f3580cf33545c1921b + +WAG.com is a super interesting company here...WAG was/is a pet goods supplier. Do you know any online pet goods suppliers? Huh… + +&#x200B; + +**Zappos** + +https://preview.redd.it/jozjlzoaag271.png?width=200&format=png&auto=webp&s=70a4a67036edd0680ebc3e1f3b7b944585148521 + +In 2009 Amazon acquired Zappos for $1.2B, again not cheap. And to add further injury to insult, amazon couldn’t kill Zappos because the deal left the CEO of Zappos in place and allowed it to operate independently. Take a look for yourself: [https://www.zappos.com/](https://www.zappos.com/) + +[https://www.inc.com/magazine/20100601/why-i-sold-zappos.html](https://www.inc.com/magazine/20100601/why-i-sold-zappos.html) + +Well fuck, if that doesn’t piss off Bezos… + +Acquisitions are effective ways to capture businesses and get their market share. The advantage was multifold, you get a new business, a group of customers and you take out some of the competition. While this process can be quick, it can be VERY expensive. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Ok, shifting gears a little, let’s take a look at another company; Bain Capital. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kcf7v9lpag271.png?width=547&format=png&auto=webp&s=798e41ae07a762bb368acb4698c7fe436a531949 + +Bain capital was started and run by a little known figure, Mitt Romney. Heard of him? If you haven’t here is an excerpt from an article written by The Rolling Stone when Romney ran for President back in 2012 + +Mitt Romney: + +“And this is where we get to the hypocrisy at the heart of Mitt Romney. Everyone knows that he is fantastically rich, having scored great success, the legend goes, as a “turnaround specialist,” a shrewd financial operator who revived moribund companies as a high-priced consultant for a storied Wall Street private equity firm. But what most voters don’t know is the way Mitt Romney *actually* made his fortune: by borrowing vast sums of money that other people were forced to pay back. This is the plain, stark reality that has somehow eluded America’s top political journalists for two consecutive presidential campaigns: Mitt Romney is one of the greatest and most irresponsible debt creators of all time. In the past few decades, in fact, Romney has piled more debt onto more unsuspecting companies, written more gigantic checks that other people have to cover, than perhaps all but a handful of people on planet Earth.” + +“Instead of building new companies from the ground up, we took out massive bank loans and used them to acquire existing firms, liquidating every asset in sight and leaving the target companies holding the note” + +[https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-183291/](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-183291/) + +Huh...Kinda sounds like a bust out...SHIT that *IS* a bust out! + +https://preview.redd.it/ht2l8s3wag271.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=daaa7d501e5cdfaf3de6efa9462a0d2181e760fc + +Romney started off with good intentions, buying failing businesses and turning them around, notably Staples. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7r610nbuag271.jpg?width=2220&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3fde846a3a1cb848868fd4ce556737f5202e2fb5 + +But Mitt liked to make money, and he soon discovered a new way to make it. A less honest, but faster and more lucrative way. Bain Capital would acquire failing businesses then bust them out. Infact, Bain would use the business itself as collateral for the loan to buy the business, ya, use the business’ own credit to buy the business. This process is known as a Leveraged Buy Out (LBO) + +Once Bain had control of the business, often they would install their own board members and executives, they would then distribute massive bonuses to executives that the failing business could not afford. Sometimes, Bain would use the business’ credit to purchase competitors, as they did with Toys R Us and FAO Schwarz, but we will get to that in a bit. + +Quick example: + +&#x200B; + +[Bain Had it out for toy companies for some reason](https://preview.redd.it/7b3w8co4bg271.jpg?width=416&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af91917f4dcbd9adc43834aae644d0916d76f2b5) + +Bain Capital acquired KB Toys in 2002 through a Leveraged Buy Out (LBO) under the guise of turning the company around, but this was just a front for their real intentions, you guessed it, a bust out. As soon as Bain had control of the company they issued massive bonuses to executives, bleeding the company of its cash. This would go on until the business declared bankruptcy, KB Toys filed for chapter 11 in 2004, 2 years after Bain came in to “Turn around” KB toys. + +“In February 2005, KB Toys' creditors, including [Hasbro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasbro) and [Lego](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lego), accused the company's top executives and majority shareholders of improperly providing themselves with multimillion-dollar payments prior to the bankruptcy.” [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB\_Toys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KB_Toys) + +Bain Lost control of KB toys during bankruptcy proceedings in august 2005, but the damage was done, and Bain walked away with some money, and some lessons learned. + +&#x200B; + +**Putting Geoffrey out on the street:** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wlg7ppr6bg271.jpg?width=618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d48b3dd80b59c6b5c94a876f502bb2557c4e46d3 + +Very soon after the lessons learned from KB Toys, Bain went after Toys R Us with KKR and Vornado capital in 2005 by means of LBO...this time with a sharper knowledge of how to bust out the company, and maybe help out newly acquired friends. + +When Bain et al. took over TRU they had a debt load of $1.86B, but for a company of TRU size, that was not unusual. Immediately after the Bain et al. acquisition that debt ballooned to $5B requiring 97% of TRU profits to service the interest on that debt. (Bloomberg) + +Debt made the company, with $11.2B in sales, less nimble and able to navigate the business and finance world. + +[https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-private-equity/561758/](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-private-equity/561758/) + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/1mp68zc8bg271.gif + +While Bain Capital controlled Toys R Us, TRU acquired FAO Schwarz in 2006. TRU also bought Amazon’s main competition in the toys ecommerce sector etoys.com and [toys.com](https://toys.com), along with a few other websites babyuniverse.com and the resource site ePregnancy.com in 2009. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toys\_%22R%22\_Us](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toys_%22R%22_Us) + +When TRU was fully busted out and tapped out for cash and usefulness it was liquidated and its parts sold off. It was the end of the massive toy retailer in the US and UK, and the demise of all major toy specific retailers both in brick and mortar and online. + +&#x200B; + +[These companies couldn't care less about the Communities and the people they hurt when these schemes are implemented](https://preview.redd.it/7lpymp3heg271.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3e3842e23d94fab479dc24fa5f52e41ae92360f5) + +So who benefits the most from this? Retailers such as WalMart, Target, and of course, Amazon. + +&#x200B; + +**Papa's got a brand new Bag!** + +https://preview.redd.it/md1d65bebg271.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d947ce410557cdf5b96b2626690c4c31f77f640d + +This is where I believe amazon discovered a new, cheaper and far more effective way to kill its competition. Upto this point, Amazon had been buying up and swallowing their competition. This was effective, but VERY expensive. + +What if, and hear me out, what if Amazon could use a company like Bain capital to do a take over of the company that had a massive market share that Amazon would like to capture, then have Bain capital busts out that company, using said company to buy up any and all competitors both online and traditional retail then declare the company bankrupt taking down all the competition with it? + +But there is a problem...how do you get Bain Capital to take over a publicly traded company? Hostile takeover? Sure, but that would be EXPENSIVE. Buying all the stock ATM would not only be costly but may also backfire when shareholders refuse to sell. + +Well, what if you could lower the share price in some way that it made it possible to take over the company. How could this be done? + +As we all know, short selling on it’s own can’t really affect the price of a share, but it benefits when the share price declines. Well, what if you’re not truly interested in shorting a company to make money off share price decline. There must be a way to lower a companies share price by increasing the supply of shares on the market...Share dilution? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n5c9ch2gbg271.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ddc26fa3774bf8de03eb6c2bcbb70fbb05081470 + +Amazon, and Bain capital are not capable of diluting shares of any company they do not control, so how could they do this to the competition? They need a partner, someone who has access to a share printing machine...but who do we know who has access to one of those? + +**Enter Citadel** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6jt6ds4ibg271.png?width=346&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb7b14b97cda41d5b8e1dc1ac3ed0dd4b5c85066 + +Citadel can create and sell fake shares, driving the share price of a targeted company to the point of either being delisted, or bankrupt, or both. When this happens, Citadel keeps all the money it makes from the short sale, never having to cover their shorts. I think by now you all understand how this works, so I'll leave it there. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**The Gang Members:** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/b7par6rjbg271.png?width=225&format=png&auto=webp&s=4853b33dbc93c7906564a6c142dcc66534581559 + +Amazon (The Leader) + +Citadel (The Dealer) + +Bain Capital (The Butcher) + +Washington Post and Motley Fool (The Liars) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**But now they need a plan:** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/chvl1mklbg271.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d8ef0778483e0e8cd8b6d38e3224b17988ea45b + +The Plan + +1. Identify a target **(The Leader)** +2. Install or acquire **inside man** on the board of the company, maybe CEO/CFO +3. Spread rumors about the target though the media **(The Liars)** +4. Create a class action lawsuit against the company +5. Fire up the printers and flood the market with fake shares of the company driving share price through the floor. **(The Dealer)** +6. Company either declares bankruptcy or is delisted from exchange +7. Perform a leveraged buyout of the company, busts it out, acquires other competition to capture and kill, then when the company is so saddled with debt it can no longer stand, kill the company and let the wolves feed off the carcass. **(The Butcher)** + +Job done, Amazon kills its competition, Bain capital makes a pile while busting out the company, and Citadel keeps all the money it made selling fake shares. + +It’s a perfect, foolproof plan, until it’s not. + +Enter GameStop and the Apes. RUH ROH...You know the rest of the story up to this point. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/oahkl4fnbg271.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=524df48f5ae920eb9d8a4e7a680eff8e6078a89c + +Seems to me the only band member who is going to come out of this unscathed is Bain Capital, they get to slip through the back door leaving the rest of the band holding the bags. + +So what’s my conclusion? I think Citadel is just part of the machine. I believe MASSIVE companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and others have been using this scheme since the financial crisis of 2008 to capture and kill their competition. I believe there are many moving parts in the plans, and Citadel/Kenny is just a footsoldier, **not** the mastermind. + +There may be a bigger Bowser at the end of this world than we expected, kenny may just be a Hammer Bro. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9bbmkaqobg271.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d396c183b6d4cd1685e074cdfb195a36cff7c0cb + +As a side note, there was talk earlier this week about AA and his connection to SHF. I think this guy got stuck between 2 worlds. He may have been installed by the gang in an attempt to bust out the company (fits well with MGM purchase). But Apes got involved and now he’s stuck between getting caught as an inside man for the SHF and actually having to be a good CEO. I believe he may be in self preservation mode, and has decided to jump to the winning team’s side. + +&#x200B; + +**Edit:** I'm just going to leave this here: [https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-gets-lift-on-revived-amazon-acquisition-rumor](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/amc-gets-lift-on-revived-amazon-acquisition-rumor) + +Oh, and there is a complimentary story by The Fool saying there is no merger... + +This was an accidental find + +**Edit 2:** + +Bain capital explained by Tony Soprano + +[https://youtu.be/reiq4lEvnEw](https://youtu.be/reiq4lEvnEw) + +This explains what Bain does VERY well + +Thank you to u/[AceoFiSpades](https://www.reddit.com/user/AceoFiSpades/) +As if coping with my dad's death isn't enough, in the past few months my mom has constantly had to deal with newly opened credit cards in his name with large amounts of credit used. She's had to contact all the different accounts and tell them that my dad passed away and they've been getting cleared one by one, but more keep coming. It's a huge hassle and I don't know how to stop it from happening. If we've already reported his death to social security, how is anyone even able to open new lines of credit under his name? Some of the credit card collectors are threatening to recoup the money from my mom's home. How do I make this stop? + +EDIT: Wow, thank you for all the replies and advice/well wishes! I'm working on freezing his credit so hopefully we can end this madness. Hope this post can also help others prevent themselves and their families from having to go through this as well. +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zytbef77fy971.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=477dda9b2535049db4d0bee5c0a27c5f96c16a9e + + Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/a52ksqs8fy971.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=d36e3553d83cd303505b3d221fa7fb075b182221 + +The reverse repo's for today + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/gzhjoz7lfy971.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d27a2d7e447324c2f2a7cfccb5f927900ce34545 + +# The moon patrol + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/japxpopvfy971.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f879c48b7f20e068f58de9366e84ddb13013442 + +[https://go.minehut.com/moonjam](https://go.minehut.com/moonjam) + +Brick by minecraft Brick, Moonjam is an event hosted in minecraft + + + +>The moon is always full at MoonJam! +> +>For one whole month — July 20th until August 20th — this lunar playground is yours to explore. Once you land at MoonJam, your first critical mission will be...to party! We're kicking off with a live concert, headlined by AJR with special guest Gunnar Gehl, right on the first day. Don't miss it! +> +>Taking on the challenge of our raffle course and star hunt could earn you a Squeakee Dino or a custom MoonJam ASTRO A40 TR Headset, exclusive to this event! +> +>There's a whole universe out there, so what are you waiting for? It's time to go zero gravity! + +&#x200B; + +[ingame ads for gme](https://preview.redd.it/g2aa1uyagy971.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=641671be687f45e6192930a4e28a2dff4a5f41ae) + +Now lets look at some other info to feed a tinfoil bias, first of all minehut is owned by SLGG. + +written by u/FloTonix **and** u/flyingwolf + +>After traveling 240,000 miles in 76 hours, Apollo 11 entered into a lunar orbit on July 19. The next day, at 1:46 p.m., the lunar module Eagle, manned by Armstrong and Aldrin, separated from the command module, where Collins remained. Two hours later, the Eagle began its descent to the lunar surface, and at **4:17** p.m. the craft touched down on the southwestern edge of the Sea of Tranquility. Armstrong immediately radioed to Mission Control in Houston, Texas, a now-famous message: "The Eagle has landed." + +and + +>Want to really jack them titties? +> +>[https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloloc.html](https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloloc.html) +> +>Apollo 11 was jettisoned at ***7:41PM*** EDT on July 21, 1969. +> +>Anyone we know have a seeming fetish for 7:41pm... + +&#x200B; + +Again it's tinfoil at best but still interesting to speculate about. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/onx2o0g3hy971.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcf12ecc681773433a464bd2fcc01f57350acf0d + +Finra needs your input. + +Now we're normally against commenting on mass, or even telling the sub "go quickly bla bla bla". + +But here is the thing, this lady from Finra is asking the Apes directly, so be sure to leave them your opinion as this wont affect any of the rules in writing but could help create new ones. + +But for the love of god please be respectful, shit flinging never helped anyone ;) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7t8oeevxhy971.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=373a8cd45f01fbee608d126675ae6ad83387fe3f + +I have no further information on this lawsuit but did think it was interesting to share. + +# + +https://preview.redd.it/k4ysve3viy971.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5ba470776673b39773162d9589367b3c77e0179 + +# It's dangerous to go outside alone, take this! + + u/onlyfuturehuman did something amazing, he backed up almost every DD in single consolidated pdf, this is seriously super impressive and I'm thankful he did this, be sure to give his thread a quick read and save the PDF in case of a reddit blackout! + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofl270/in\_case\_of\_emergency\_break\_glass\_the\_superstonk/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofl270/in_case_of_emergency_break_glass_the_superstonk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +&#x200B; + +OBV action + +by u/CitesQuo **Hollandse Hunk** + +Would be a shame if someone could see the sideways OBV, seeing no major selling is happening right? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2yjyacttiy971.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1ea3297575ccf2bd5d5cd65a6e9f63e04ccd703 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/7h06u3tcjy971.png?width=320&format=png&auto=webp&s=34f377939acd544bc4383cd800dacc1334e8c4f2 + +You get a Crypto, I get a Crypto WTF IS A CRYPTO!? + +Like most of you I think "magic internet money" whenever I hear crypto, I'm not sure what it does or how it functions other than you can mine it and use it to pay for stuff. + +Thank god our internal jellyfish u/Dismal-Jellyfish wrote a DD about whatsup with the crypto stuff + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a\_crypto\_dive\_with\_the\_jellyfish\_10\_things\_about/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofndb0/a_crypto_dive_with_the_jellyfish_10_things_about/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +It's enough to at least start thinking about crypto and what we could expect from it. + + + +https://preview.redd.it/3s0vxidrjy971.png?width=550&format=png&auto=webp&s=12268bfcd064abb2c0bbe4145bfc3541d46fcdd2 + +Ready, Get set... Ladder attack + +So I've seen some newer apes complain about the opening and get demoralized, first of all welcome to the club buddies! +This stuff is fairly normal, on most days you'll see the first hour or so get the price hammered down without any real reason. +Good news, down, bad news, down, no news, down, Electing Ryan cohen to the Director of the board, believe it or not down. +And to give you some proof that it's not just my opinion but something that happens consistently you can check out the following thread by u/FreezYourMind : + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofpn49/gme\_chronology\_of\_a\_shortselling\_attack\_you\_can/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ofpn49/gme_chronology_of_a_shortselling_attack_you_can/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +# + +https://preview.redd.it/2u1c2mtpky971.png?width=950&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf80d84292e1041e5a63d563afc25f9208db468d + +# LEGOOO + +ok so lets end this on a happy note, u/the_end_is_neigh-_- made a super sweet concept in this thread + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/oerfy9/gamestop\_laden\_f%C3%BCr\_lego\_ideas/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Spielstopp/comments/oerfy9/gamestop_laden_f%C3%BCr_lego_ideas/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +He made a lego set and trying to get it approved by lego and has a signiture thing going on here: +[https://ideas.lego.com/projects/906f72e1-46fd-4228-b364-a3fbb7cea249](https://ideas.lego.com/projects/906f72e1-46fd-4228-b364-a3fbb7cea249) + +I guess loads of people really still like lego, so I thought why not share. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zrijrel2ly971.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=e338d58fff8196406519206953e588d816c32418 + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t8rvwnz4ly971.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=e595f3f0347e976da97b106b16db3eff08b33809 + + + +remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) + +[https://twitter.com/u\_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) + +[https://twitter.com/BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) +Not including ETFs (SCHD, VTI, VOO, etc), what would you say the top 3 dividend stocks to own are for someone who’s 25 years away from retirement? In this hypothetical situation, pretend that dividends from these stocks will be used as cash flow during retirement. + + +Consider parameters like volatility, longevity, growth potential, dividend yield, etc. + + +My initial thoughts are: + +- JPM +- KO +- MSFT + +Disclaimer: Currently hold shares of only KO from above list. +I’m posting this on mobile, so I apologize in advance for any formatting errors. + +I see a lot of people freaking out that the SEC report on GameStop will be the mother of all FUD, the biggest test that we as apes will face before MOASS. There’s essentially two outcomes that I see coming from this. + +Scenario 1 - Gary Gensler, somehow, ends up in retail’s favor. The SEC report outlines all of the synthetic shares in existence, blatant price manipulation, FTD’s, etc, etc. Everything ape’s have been saying for months gets outlined, proven correct, and the whole world starts buying $GME in order to not miss the rocket launch. MOASS occurs, apes HODL to $50,000,000 per share, sell on the way down, and change the world for the better, forever. + +Scenario 2 - Gary Gensler, pulling a typical SEC move, releases a report that says “We see nothing, we’re going to go back to watching porn.” MSM continues to try to get apes to sell with the biggest FUD campaign yet. This scenario, however, would undeniably remove all responsibility from GameStop when the market crashes during MOASS. “No manipulation, you say? Then surely this NFT dividend won’t hurt anything, RIGHT SEC? Oh, our NFT dividend caused MOASS and wrecked the global economy? How? You said nothing weird was happening to our stock.” Overstock is still fighting lawsuits from their dividend. Scenario 2 removes any and all legal liability from GameStop, so they can simply launch the rocket themselves without repercussions. + +Either way, buy, hodl, sell on the way down, and make the world better. Buckle the fuck up 🚀 💎 🦍 +CBX is now available on the LSE. Looks like its initially entering around the 13/14p per share mark after their IPO last month. + +This comes off the back of new-comers MGC Pharamaceutical (MXC) and Kanabo (KNB) to the UK cannaboid market. + +The most notable high profile backer of CBX does seem to be David Beckham, which has generated notable interest. The opinions seem to be fairly split regarding the UK cannaboid market. Both MXC and KNB proved popular if you wanted to pump and dump within the first 3 days, but others feel they are a better long term strategy depending on how legislation in the UK goes regarding cannabis. +Hello everyone. I am a 18 yo Dutch national, and I am pretty new to investing. I receny installed Degiro to. start investing my savings in etf’s. And I have been researching what etf’s I would like to invest in long term. +Any notes, advice or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. + +This is my current idea for a portfolio. + +- Xtrackers MSCI World Information Tech UCITS etf (25%) + +- Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum UCITS etf (25%) + +- Etflab Stoxx Europe Strong Growth 20 (25%) + +- Ishares Prop Euro (12,5%) +- Ishares prop Asia (12,5%) +I Can’t say it wasn’t a long tough road to get to this point, talking with the owner for weeks, months, and even doing a lease buy for months ahead of this with a contract written out for traditional financing of the house. But after major convincing and explanation of cryptocurrency in general to the previous owner, Who wasn’t super familiar with how it works. We came to a conclusion that buying the property in BTC would benefit both of parties. I am ecstatic! This is what it’s all about. + +Cheers 🍻 +I finally have dental insurance for the first time in my life. I have always been a 2x a day brusher but definitely a slacker when it came to flossing. Low and behold I got quite a few cavities between my teeth that were all totally avoidable had I flossed. Thank god I have dental insurance and can finally get these taken care of. + +TLDR: BRUSH AND FLOSS EVERY DAY. IT CAN SAVE YOU THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS AND YEARS OF DISCOMFORT +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hi all - ive been a long time lurker here and have bene trading options for about 8 months. I am very diligent when it comes to selling options, logging every trade, following economic news closely etc. + +I started my account with $15,000 in April, took it to $40k two weeks ago. I FOOLISHLY made really good easy money day trading SPY credit Spreads, and so I tried it again and lost about 12K. + +My account is now sitting at roughly $21K and ive decided to take a break. My method of slow and easy was working great, earning 0.5 to 3% per weekly trade selling 5-10% OTM Calls or Puts, but I got greedy. + +It really hurts, any advice for losses? At least my strategy wasn't the issue, it was pure greed.... +I have read about the 2% rule of risk management. That every position shouldn’t be bigger than the 2% of your portfolio. + +Does this mean that if I have $10.000 I should have 50 positions of a $200 each? + +My main concern is that the more positions you have. You are more exposed. Any advice? +I am 25 years old and have a salary of $58k. My only current debt is $26k of federal student loans (interest rate around 4%) currently on deferral for Covid. I recently finished paying of ~$50k in private student loan debt and I am now switching to an investing and saving mindset. I have about ~$8.5k of cash on hand in a checking and a online HYSA. I invest some cash into my ROTH IRA every month but want to continue to have liquid funds available for the next 3-10 years. (I will need a car upgrade, Engagement, marriage, house, etc.) I am thinking of opening a brokerage account and keeping my “liquid” cash in their and investing in something deemed to be non-risky such as U.S. bonds. (FXNAX) Is this a reasonable move, or is the difference in interest not worth the risk? (Currently receive 0.5% in HYSA and Bonds have a 10 year average of about 3.5%) thanks! +I was watching a TV show yesterday and some of the main-ish characters inherited $10M and they got so excited and go a bit crazy and my gut reaction was honestly thinking "but it's only $10M, it's just not that much". + +I can't be the only one who's brain has been recalibrated over the last few months, whether we notice it or not. For me this is another grain of proof we are ready to hodl all the way through big big numbers. +I recently created a retirement spreadsheet using excel and am having a hard time understanding how, given the power of inflation, you could ever retire with relative certainty that’d you’d be ok in the long run. + +Suppose you retire at age 65 with optimistically $1.5 million in savings. Suppose that generates 5% per year in interest income that you plan to live on = $75K/yr. Suppose you pay 30% total income tax on that (fed/state) leaving you with ~$50K/yr or roughly $4,000/mo. Clearly today $4,000/mo is plenty to live on comfortably. + +But ~30 years from now (I am 36), assuming 3.2% annual inflation, $4,000/mo is worth only about $1,500 in today’s dollars. Still maybe ok if you live frugally; maybe have a place to live for free at that point (assuming you didn’t need your home equity to get to the original $1.5M nest egg). + +But the thing that really has me scratching my head is what if you live to be 95? That $4K/mo is now worth only ~$600/mo. That’s tough to live on. AND the thing that is even harder for me to understand is how much money it would take to make a material difference — suppose you double the $1.5M nest egg to $3.0M. By 95, that is still only giving you ~$1,200/mo in today’s dollars worth of purchasing power? + +Clearly you might have additional income — SSI and/or work pension etc. But for the sake of simplicity, assume you don’t have those additional sources (because 1.5M as a nest egg is a stretch as is, so in coming up with the above numbers, I already shifted them to assume some of that original $4k/mo includes those sources). + +How does one responsibly plan to live into deep old age (the universe willing) given the power of inflation? Once you stop working and start living on interest income, your dollars seem to devalue rapidly. Is the only solution kids/other family support by ppl working who make salaries inflated to 60-years-from-now levels? Or just enjoy the first 10-15 years of retirement while your money is still competitive? Is the advice on so many finance websites to aim for 1M to 1.5M in retirement savings dated (keyed to today’s dollars or even 30 years from now dollars, rather than 40/50/60 years from now dollars)? Or the advice that you should save X times your current salary to sustain X quality of life somewhat incomprehensible, since retirement is not a static situation, but rather a dynamic one in which X quality of life takes increasingly more income to sustain every year? + +I’d really appreciate any help with reorienting my thinking about this if possible. I thought the retirement spreadsheet drafting process would make me feel more secure, and instead I feel less secure. + +TL;DR - draft retirement spreadsheet has me confused as to how one can ever reasonably expect to live 30 years post-retirement on interest income alone without many millions in savings given the power of inflation. Please help :) + +EDIT: Wow, thank you all so much for the incredible response and wealth of information. To summarize major takeaways: 1) The biggest mistake I made was to assume that I would live entirely off interest income in retirement; rather, most people seem to draw down principal and a 4% draw is very likely to last 30 years, a 3% draw almost certainly will (see Trinity Study and concept of “Safe Withdrawal Rate”). 2) I made many assumptions that are too pessimistic: a) tax rate is likely to be something closer to 20%, b) real return (inflation adjusted) is likely to be 3-5% annually, in part because c) 3.2% is likely too high an estimate of inflation (100-year historic average does not take into account modern monetary policy). 3) If possible, try not to assume the equity in your home will become part of the nest egg; great if you can live in the home to reduce housing expenses in retirement. 4) For many, retirement at 65 may be optimistic given increasing life expectancies — consider staying engaged even in part-time work you enjoy beyond that. 5) Expenses do tend to go down in retirement, though this may be non-linear (early active years, more sedentary mid-retirement, increased care costs in late retirement). 6) Consider “bond tent” or similar approach to asset allocation near the retirement age. Since poor stock market returns near retirement can cause you to dip into principal in a way that dramatically alters performance throughout retirement, it is a good idea to shift some of your portfolio to bonds near retirement age (see “Sequence of Returns” concept). 7) If an appealing option, consider jurisdictional arbitrage — i.e., make money in a place where wages/income are relatively high and then retire to a place where cost of living is relatively low (tl;dr - work in the US and retire to Mexico/South America/Southeast Asia). 8) Lastly, wherever you are on the path to retirement, proceed in the face of inherent uncertainty (even the corrected assumptions above about SWRs, future tax rates, real returns, and inflation are not certain), balancing as best you can the ability to hedge risk and plan for the future while also enjoying today. Thank you all — spreadsheet updated! +[Unprecedented turmoil in the markets right now](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/futures-are-steady-wednesday-night-after-dow-closes-in-bear-market-traders-await-trump.html) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Wish me luck, I am getting in for $3650 with a pretty high margin. If it gets to $328 I will lose 100% of the money. If it gets to 401, I'll double my money. This is money I put away specifically for gambling/investing/fun, never gamble uhmm invest money you can't afford to lose. +TA;DR (Too Ape; Didn't Read): How do y'all want us to tell MSM to fuck off? + +\---------------------- + +Holy shit! [We asked, and YOU responded.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8tyri/codename_sock_mod_team_was_approached_by_several/) That was A LOT of feedback and it was cool as fuck to see it all unfold in real time. It was so refreshing to see us all united against the MSM 😂 But yea, we mods took your responses and feedback and these were the prevailing suggestions amongst the Apes. + +Just so everyone's aware of what you're voting for, this video is pretty much what we are telling MSM in ALL of these poll options 😂: + +[credit: u\/kzoxp](https://reddit.com/link/r9q8n3/video/9bq4zgk1ks381/player) + +# So now it's time to choose which specific response you'd like to go with. Bear in mind, once you vote, YOU CANNOT CHANGE IT. So choose deliberately. + +# OPTIONS + +Poll Option 1: We ghost them. No response at all. + +Poll Option 2: We send them just a link to this meme: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8xy56/in\_the\_words\_of\_mark\_baum/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8xy56/in_the_words_of_mark_baum/) + +Poll Option 3: We send them just a link to the DD library: [https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) + +Poll Option 4: We send them JUST a link to the [meme](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8xy56/in_the_words_of_mark_baum/) AND the [DD library](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg). No flowery message included. + +Poll Option 5: We send them this exact message --- “Thank you for contacting r/Superstonk. While we understand your request to speak with the community/moderators would make your job easier, we would encourage you to do some investigative journalism. Our official response is read the [Due Diligence](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) and [please fuck off](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8xy56/in_the_words_of_mark_baum/).” + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/r9q8n3) +I started a cash out refinance last week and my rate started at at 5.25% with a 30 year amortization. Then 5 days later it was moved to 5.75% and then 6% Friday. I contacted the lender and asked if they would honor the original rate quote and they said no, in fact they said it would likely go up again before we were done. This is with 740+ credit score and very low debt to income. + +So, I pulled the plug on the deal. What kind of rates is everyone seeing on cash outs right now? +[Link here](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-co-founder-has-cashed-out-at-least-700-million-from-the-company-11563481395?mod=rsswn) + +>Investors in startups have generally frowned upon founders who cash out large chunks of shares ahead of a public-markets debut, because it raises questions about their confidence in the company. On the other hand, people close to Mr. Neumann say, his borrowings against some of his WeWork shares indicate that he is bullish on the company’s long-term prospects. + +What do you guys think of this? + (repost: sorry admins, didn't know that posting the link in telegram is wrong. Won't do that this time) + +Just wanted to share this tip with y'all + +This is a token from a Telegram admin of various groups. I have talked to him in the past and he seems to know what he's doing. Now he started his own project with 40 employees! Here's part of a pinned message: + +Welcome to MoonBoys - a deflationary token with a difference. You can finally rest easy at night holding $MBS. + +Have you recently missed out on the latest “big thing”? Forget about them. MoonBoys is the future! +With a 10% transaction tax on every trade we ensure that holders are greatly rewarded by simply holding (6% is distributed to $MBS holders dependant on their holding and 4% is locked away forever in liquidity) + +1,000,000,000,000,000 total supply + +Buy Link: +[https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xe361344013cC906c56bbA111bDE00C421852c73b](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xe361344013cC906c56bbA111bDE00C421852c73b) + +Token Address: +[https://bscscan.com/token/0xe361344013cc906c56bba111bde00c421852c73b#balances](https://bscscan.com/token/0xe361344013cc906c56bba111bde00c421852c73b#balances) + +Chart: +[https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xe361344013cC906c56bbA111bDE00C421852c73b](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xe361344013cC906c56bbA111bDE00C421852c73b) + +Join the Telegram chat here: +[https://t.me/MoonBoysOfficial](https://t.me/MoonBoysOfficial) + +But DYOR as always. Keep it tight! +**In the first stage of an upward market**—one that has been down awhile and that nobody expects to rise again—people aren’t talking about stocks. In fact, if they lumber up to ask me what I do for a living, and I answer, “I manage an equity mutual fund,” they nod politely and wander away. + +If they don’t wander away, then they quickly change the subject to the Celtics game, the upcoming elections, or the weather. Soon they are talking to a nearby dentist about plaque. + +When ten people would rather talk to a dentist about plaque than to the manager of an equity mutual fund about stocks, it’s likely that the market is about to turn up. + +**In stage two**, after I’ve confessed what I do for a living, the new acquaintances linger a bit longer—perhaps long enough to tell me how risky the stock market is—before they move over to talk to the dentist. The cocktail party talk is still more about plaque than about stocks. The market’s up 15 percent from stage one, but few are paying attention. + +**In stage three**, with the market up 30 percent from stage one, a crowd of interested parties ignores the dentist and circles around me all evening. A succession of enthusiastic individuals takes me aside to ask what stocks they should buy. + +Even the dentist is asking me what stocks he should buy. + +Everybody at the party has put money into one issue or another, and they’re all discussing what’s happened. + +**In stage four,** once again they’re crowded around me—but this time it’s to tell me what stocks I should buy. Even the dentist has three or four tips, and in the next few days I look up his recommendations in the newspaper and they’ve all gone up. When the neighbors tell me what to buy and then I wish I had taken their advice, it’s a sure sign that the market has reached a top and is due for a tumble. + +&#x200B; + +Excerpt from *One Up on Wall Street* by Peter Lynch. +I (f/37) have no desire to do a lot of the grinding tasks of maintaining a house and life that are required. Over the years I've tried various scenarios. Hiring a cleaning service, sending laundry out, having someone come in to help with shopping and meal prep. Open mail. But it's always piece meal and it follows none of the normal rules I apply in business. + +When I choose a team member in business I pick self starters. Positive people who I feel like can make decisions on my behalf. People who I feel are here for the long haul. + +In my house it's like a string of people who are here as a stepping stone or temporarily. I have to micro manage . And I just dont want to. What I need is a household manager or a personal assistant where this is their profession. They're not waiting for the next thing. + + It truly does require a wide variety of skills and everything I've tried thus far has not been cohesive.How does everyone handle this? Has anyone had any great success with a service? Or if you found one person how did you find them? I'm interested in hearing about scenarios where someone has been with you for 5 plus years or long term. +It's a script that searches the web for cryptocurrency news, taking keywords as input and then passes those to a text sentiment API, analysing how many of the headlines are positive, neutral or negative. + +I'm thinking about integrating this with an Exchange and testing out a trading strategy when based on the news sentiment. If the news are overwhelming positivity for a crypto, the bot would buy for example. During my testing it looks like the sentiment is being picked up quite well but it's not perfect. + +In order to get an accurate picture of the overall daily news sentiment for a coin, a large number of headlines need to be consumed. Additionally, many headlines on one coin is also an indication that the news is quite big. + +The API used to scrape the web only allows for 100 calls/day in the free version. If you guys know of other resources that can be used to scrape crypto news headlines, I would be happy test them out. + +GitHub repo available below if you're interested + + [https://github.com/CyberPunkMetalHead/cryptocurrency-news-analysis](https://github.com/CyberPunkMetalHead/cryptocurrency-news-analysis) +Team Bog are changing the way we trade in the BSC space. + +Their successful charting platform now receives 1 Million Visitors per day and we are all enjoying the buy/sell limit orders. + +# The newest addition to the Bogverse + +[Bogged.Finance/Swap](https://Bogged.Finance/Swap) \- is a pancake swap interface that allows the user to buy their desired token for the **best price**. The best price is achieved **automatically** by routing through PCSv1 PCSv2 and newly added Apeswap. + +It's free (no additional fee) and you don't need to hold bog to use it. + +You might want to hold some $Bog though, especially after seeing whats coming up from team Bog + +# Current Stats + +Marketcap : 33 Million + +Holders : 16800 + +Devs : Luke (Doxxed) John (Anon) - Both very active and responsive on socials + +# Incoming soon + +🔸Sniper Release - 2/5/21 - [Medium Info](https://boggedfinance.medium.com/) 👀 + +🔸A huge update for limit orders which will support PCSv2 in the coming weeks. along with support for BUSD orders. + +🔸 Solo Bog Staking - Charts will start delivering value to stakers by returning some advertising fees to solo stakers (this will launch in about a month). + +**Bog is here to stay,** and lets us play using an arsenal of tools this Altcoin Season. + +So don't miss out on this Gem and Fomo in once it breaks 100M MC. + +If you need any more info hit up the TG, always happy to answer Qs + +**LINKS** + +[**Bogtools.io**](https://bogtools.io/) + +[**Chart**](https://charts.bogged.finance/) + +[**Telegram**](https://t.me/bogtools) + +[**Bogged.Finance**](https://bogged.finance/) **- Trading Platform** + +[**Bogged.Finance/swap**](https://bogged.finance/swap) **- can buy bog (& anything else) here** + +[**BSCScan - 0xd7b729ef857aa773f47d37088a1181bb3fbf0099**](https://bscscan.com/token/0xd7b729ef857aa773f47d37088a1181bb3fbf0099) + +[**Reddit**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BogTools) + +[**Coingecko**](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bogged-finance) + +[**CoinMarketCap**](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bogged-finance/) + +[**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/bogtools) + +[**How to place buy/sell order Video**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BogTools/comments/modi2x/bogtools_limit_order_howto_video_mass_adoption/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +[**How to buy Bog / Use Bogged Finance with Trustwallet**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BogTools/comments/mrcktr/how_to_use_boggedfinance_on_trustwallet_android/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +[**Token Sniper Medium**](https://boggedfinance.medium.com/announcing-the-bogged-finance-token-launch-sniper-7dac90c6c917) + +HAPPY TRADING TEAM + +DYOR + +NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE +The majority of you must be aware that the big buzz in cryptospace right now is the ETH merge. From the sources I read, the Merge will see the Ethereum mainnet merge with the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain, which will complete the transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. This PoS is then expected to make Ethereum more secure, energy efficient, and environmentally friendly - which is great news. + +This has caused me to reconsider my investment strategy, especially since we have just emerged from a bear market. With the current trend, ETH reaching 10-20k is very likely. HODLing + DCAing + Staking has always been my strategy. I'm not sure how everyone's strategy has changed as a result of this news. I've been considering upping my game by staking my ETH on more platforms such as Binance, Nexo, and Haru Invest. + +Going back to my original query, how does this merge affect your strategy? +Hi all, + + +Some background information - I run a small data science consulting firm that invests the majority of its profits into a value investment portfolio. In this post I will analyze three of our current holdings, when we purchased these stocks, and why we purchased them. I'm looking forward to any feedback others might have. + +&#x200B; + +**FSI - Flexible Solutions International** + +Market Cap: 29.75M + +PE Ratio: 8.7 + +Yield: 5.8 + +This is a nanocap company that produces various liquid polymers for purposes such as: increasing agricultural crop yield, decreasing required amounts of fertilizer, saving water loss from evaporation, and scale reduction polymers for the oil and gas industry. Many of their products are biodegradable and are good for the environment. + +The company has an extremely strong balance sheet with a debt to equity ratio of 0.11, cash of 6M, 10.6M in PPE including a manufacturing location with rail access. + +The company also has various investments in fertilizer and real estate companies disclosed on their 10-Q which can be found here: [FSI 10-Q](https://fintel.io/doc/sec-fsi-10q-flexible-solutions-international-2020-august-14-18490) + +The company is very attractive because it offers a moat with its unique and technologically advanced products, it has had an average revenue growth rate of 11.5% over the last 5 years, it has significant room for margin expansion (currently net-margin of 12% peak margin of 27.6% in 2017), the high dividend yield (combats inflation for long term holding), and it has a strong balance sheet. + +*Disclosure: Our position was started on April 14th at a share price of $1.69 current average cost of $2.35.* + +&#x200B; + +**TRQ - Turquoise Hill Resources** + +Market Cap: 2.36B + +PE Ratio: 6.4 + +Price to Book: 0.28 + +This is a company that is currently developing the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia. There is significant risk involved in the completion of this mine, however, it represents one of the largest copper deposits in the world which is expected to produce around 3% of the world's total current consumption. Additionally, the lifespan of the mine is in the century range. The mine is expected to produce copper at a price of $0.50 which is considerably less than other mining operations. + +The asset value of the Oyu Tolgoi mine is enormous, on the latest filing TRQ's non-current PPE assets are valued at 10.6B. Much of this is in the ore body, which can appreciate or depreciate due to rising or falling copper prices. + +Why is the company priced so low? Uncertainty is the primary reason. This uncertainty is caused by a variety of currently unresolved factors: + +1. Mongolia - The government of Mongolia owns 34% of the Oyu Tolgoi mine as well as has a royalty agreement with TRQ. This project is one of the first large projects in Mongolia and there is a significant amount of domestic risk. Additionally, there is a significant global geopolitical risk due to the mine's proximity to China. +2. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto is a \~51% shareholder of TRQ. This has resulted in considerable intercompany disputes and conflicts of interest. +3. Financing - There is currently an MOU between TRQ and Rio Tinto that states only a portion of the upcoming project can be financed and the rest has to be raised via equity offering. When this possibility of an equity offering was announced the share price was negatively impacted. Currently, TRQ and RIO are in arbitration over the additional required financing. +4. Power Supply - There was considerable confusion and indecision in regards to the construction of a powerplant to run the Oyu Tolgoi operations. This seems to have resolved with the government of Mongolia offering to construct a power plant in exchange for long-term power purchase agreements. + +So as it can be seen there is an immense amount of risk and uncertainty involved in this project. Our investment was based purely on the sheer size of the assets. + +More recently, there have been some positive catalysts to the project. The first being the near resolution of the power supply question, the second being recent statements from TRQ's CEO Ulf Quellmann in relation to the financing of the project. Ulf has stated that he believes that debt financing makes more sense. These are some of the first public statements by the CEO in many months. The interview can be seen here: [Ulf Quellmann Debt Interview](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/12/04/disputed-oyu-tolgoi-copper-mine-can-support-more-debt-turquoise-hill-ceo.html) + +Why we chose to invest in this company is due to our prediction of rising inflation combined with current low rates. We believe it is very likely the project will be entirely financed at the current near-zero interest rates. The ultra-long-term scale of the project means that accumulation of debt now for an asset beyond comprehension in scope is a hedge against inflation. Additionally, copper demand will rise as more electrification happens in emerging and frontier economies. + +Additionally, near-term current rising gold and copper prices combined with strong current cashflow may make the uncertainty around financing significantly less of an issue. + +There is incredible risk involved in investing in TRQ due to the reasons listed above so aware of this and perform analysis. + +*Disclosure: Our position was started in June of 2019 at a post split share price of around $13 our current average cost is $11.45. For a significant amount of time, this position was down >50% (Ouch!).* + +&#x200B; + +**NL - NL Industries** + +Market Cap: 234M + +PE Ratio: 14.5 + +Yield: 3.21 + +This is a holding company that owns various stakes in chemical industrial companies and component manufacturing operations. + +This company is very interesting in that it has a complicated structure involving owning a portion of a parent company that owns a portion of NL along with additional companies. + +There are three main companies that are of interest in the analysis of NL Industries. + +1. Kronos Worldwide (Ticker KRO) this company produces titanium dioxide, which is mainly used in paints and coatings. NL Industries owns 248M in KRO stock. +2. CompX (Ticker CIX) this company produces locks, security equipment, and marine parts. NL Industries owns 149M in CIX stock. +3. Valhi (Ticker VHI) this company is a holding company similar to NL Industries it holds shares in KRO and Basic Management Inc./The Landwell Company. It also owns 82.8% of NL Industries. A chart of this circular ownership tree can be found on page 4 of [Valhi's annual report](http://www.valhi.net/static-files/0d0c32e5-aa09-45e7-98b3-04679a5f6638) The value of NL Industries owns 20.6M in VHI stock. + +There is an additional 129M in cash on NL's books as well as 26M in marketable securities. This means that the stock and cash value of NL is 572.6M compared to a market cap of 234M. + +There is currently considerable outstanding litigation to NL Industries due to their prior participation in lead mining and lead paint manufacturing. There is a detailed legal timeline seen in Valhi which shows many of the cases are dismissed or favorably settled. + +Due to the previously calculated cash and stock assets and an assumed maximum liability of 200M as detailed in NL Industries annual report, we believe this means that NL Industries is trading at a minimum of 37.2% below fair value and a maximum (zero liability losses) of 59.1% below fair value. + +While I have read many articles that are far more exuberant in their NL price targets, we believe that the security is significantly undervalued given its significant portfolio of high yielding stocks and large cash reserve. The yield is also considerable. + +*Disclosure: Our position was started in July of 2020 at a price of $3.38 our current average cost is $3.60.* + +\-------------------------------------- + +Would love to hear everyone's thoughts on these, and discuss any other ideas. Please note that I am not a financial advisor and this should not be taken as investment advice. It is just some research you should make your financial decisions yourself. + + +Regards, +JN +joseph@riaforce.com +["A Victorian dad-of-four has managed to retire at age 36 after finding a way to make $250,000 every year without doing any work"](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/melbourne-dad-retires-early-after-making-250k-a-year-from-vast-property-portfolio/news-story/df19cbb86a747eb699a9ced2f22d0523%3Famp&ved=2ahUKEwj39evOwO30AhWCwjgGHTF7AMwQvOMEKAB6BAgDEAE&usg=AOvVaw3XGPglkVrTnDV6LdSNglNA) + +Do you find these kind of articles worrying? Even a best case scenario assuming 100 properties only cost an average price of $250,000 the return on investment would be around 1% the real ROI is likely much much worse than this. + +Yes, it would likely be highly leveraged, which may make the ROI better - but regardless the return for the amount of money borrowed is terrible. + +What do you think about these types of articles and financial advice? +Having just passed the huge millionaire net worth milestone I figured I'd share my journey to date, even though there's been several of these lately. Everyone's journey is unique. + +Simple Net Worth Graph [HERE.](https://imgur.com/EhkReY0) + +Stacked category Net Worth Graph [HERE.](https://imgur.com/OCDyLQd) + +(PERSI is the state public employees pension and 401k fund.) + +Spending per month since married in 2015 graph [HERE.](https://imgur.com/rrLH95T) + +&#x200B; + +2007 + +I graduate from college at 22 years old with a civil engineering degree with $23k in student loans, and get a dream job working for a local government in a small town with wilderness around in idaho. I'm so lucky to have landed a stable job prior to 2008 crash, and that really set me up on a successful trajectory (Lucky Life Event #1). I start investing a lot of money into my 401k right away, knowing that I want to retire a millionaire at an early age and understanding the power of compound interest. + +2008 + +I get married. We mostly kept our finances separate because she was still in school 3 hours away, so there's no changes reflected in my graphs because of this. + +2009 + +Wife finished school and moves up to be with me, working odd jobs. Having saved up for a down payment on some empty property, and with the market prices at rock bottom, we take advantage of the first time home buyers tax credit ($8k the following year) to get 5 acres of forest for $35k and develop it into a livable parcel with a used single-wide manufactured home, the idea being that we can live in that while we work towards building a real house on the property. Total spent around $110,000 for property, manufactured home, utilities, driveway, permits, etc. + +2010 + +My wife leaves in December suddenly after an incident and moves in with a family friend in another state. Mental illness playing a big role in her leaving. The details don't matter in the realm of this discussion but I'm emotionally and mentally devastated. + +2011 + +Worst year of my life, trying to support a mentally struggling wife who is not living with me, she attempts suicide, cheats repeatedly, ends up in mental hospital, etc. + +I get cut back to part time employment because of changing political priorities and reduce my retirement savings down to minimums to continue making debt payments and never default. I get a roommate to help make ends meet. My food budget was $1 per meal. My dog gets hit by a car and killed. My other dog disappears into the woods and never returns. My old self-restored sports car, which is my biggest passion, is the victim of a hit and run and totalled. I hit a deer on my motorcycle and crash and it's totalled. The hits just keep on coming. Through all of this, I just keep telling myself that you can't keep a good dog down, and that I will overcome and come through this, and I do. The one good thing to come out of the year was that I passed my Professional Engineer exam and was now a PE instead of an EIT (engineer in training). No raise given, on account of them cutting me to part time instead. D'oh! + +2012 + +I find a new job, in the same city, doing roughly the same thing (civil engineering for local government), for the same money I was making before being cut to part time. I finalize a divorce and keep the house that I've been making all the payments on the entire time. I don't go back to full on retirement savings, because I have some catching up to do on other necessities. + +2013 + +Meet a new girl and start dating. She doesnt want kids, which opens me up to the DINK possibility for the first time in my life, which I'd never really considered prior to this. I just expected that every girl wanted kids and had never really asked myself if I did. Turns out, no, I didn't really want kids and I recognized all the signs once I looked for them. + +I Realize that my pickup truck is worth what I still owe on my student loans, and decide to sell the truck and payoff my loans in a lump sum. Go back to saving a lot towards retirement. + +2014 + +Get engaged. Buy a house together a couple months before our wedding for $160k with a huge gift of $30k from her parents to use as a down payment. Her parents had received $60k from their parents in 1980ish to buy their first home, and they wanted to pay it forward by giving $30k to each of their 2 kids buying their first homes. This very generous gift was another huge lucky perk (#2) that helped us get a jump start, and I recognize how rare and valuable that gift was. Without it, we'd just be staying in my current place. Instead, I now sell my manufactured home and the 5 acres it sits on for $116k, getting about $40k of equity out of it. Get myself a new sports car, Subaru STI, largely financed... :/ + +2015 + +Get married (small vertical jump on the net worth graph through combining the finances at this point). She also worked for a public entity and has pension and 401k through the same system as me, but has not been focused on accumulating wealth and so brings very little net worth into the marriage, but is very frugal and excited to start the FIRE journey with me. She's making $25k/year gross and I'm at $55k still. We go to Thailand for our honeymoon (the first big spending spike on our spending graph). +But life also throws challenges at you too, and I end up charged with 3 felonies when caught up in an altercation with some road raging rednecks. A judge ultimately dismisses the charges against me, but we spent $15k on lawyer fees and related expenses (2nd big spending spike on our graph). Thankfully, most of the $40k in equity I had from selling my last home was still available (Lucky perk #3). Without having money available to fight the injustice, this could have drastically altered our lives, with me going to prison and losing my career. So thankful that I hadn't actually done what accused of, and had the money to fight it. This event really opened my eyes to how awful the justice system is against the poor. They don't stand a chance at fighting or recovering from something like this. + +2016 + +Thankfully, just a normal year. Phew! + +2017 + +Get the first real raise of my career up to $67k after nearly a decade of static wages and put all of it towards retirement savings. Surprise wife with self drive safari trip to Africa as a birthday present (already saved cash for that, not because of the raise). It was about this time that I learned about the FIRE movement, even though I'd been living many of the principles on my own. + +2018 + +Vacation to Vietnam. Get another raise when I demonstrate to a new boss that I'm still woefully behind the market pay for civil engineers in government roles and put all of it towards retirement savings. + +2019 + +Wife decides she wants to pursue a career change into working with data and enrolls in an online degree program. We cash flow tuition this time by reducing spending and slightly reducing retirement savings. She also switches employers (still public entity) and get a small bump in pay. Sports car is paid off finally. Now debt free except for mortgage. + +2020 + +Ugh, school sucks. Can't wait for this to be over and get my wife back. Just in the boring middle as far as finances go. + +2021 + +We decide to go gangbusters on the remaining $40k owed on our mortgage with the goal of paying off the house by Christmas to be totally debt free and secure in a paid off home. As of today, we owe $9k on the mortgage still, on track to accomplish that goal. The house value in this crazy hot real estate market in our area has risen from the $160k that we bought it for 7 years ago to $420k+ according to Redfin and $580k according to Zillow. (I'm using Redfin in these numbers). My wife finished school. Hooray! She also gets promoted with at her current employer for a $10k/year bump (not school related), and I get another raise as well when I demonstrate to my boss yet again that my wages are falling behind the market, bringing our household income to $123k, up from $89k in 2018. Most of the raise money goes toward retirement savings, with some going towards our mortgage gangbuster payments. Wife searching for a new entry level job to get her started in a data related career and capitalize on that new 2nd bachelors degree. + +As of September 2021, we finally crossed the million dollar net worth line that we've been skyrocketing towards, with $538k invested in various tax advantaged retirement accounts, including the value of our pension fund, which is considerable. A few years ago I didn't expect to cross this line until around 44 years old based on my projections, but the crazy market growth has accelerated that timeline, as many of you have experienced yourselves. + +&#x200B; + +Near term plans: pay off the house and use the freed up income to catch up on some deferred home maintenance, start replacing some vehicles, taking vacations again. After a few years of that, dumping most of what was going towards the mortgage towards retirement savings. + +&#x200B; + +Long term plans: Retire around 50 years old. Our FIRE number is $1.6M. At the very worst case scenario, I'll hit my rule of 90 at 56 years old and be able to start drawing a full pension at that time. I expect we'd be FAT FIRE if we worked until then, but there are never any market guarantees. + +&#x200B; + +I hope that helps to inspire someone in their own journey. There are ups and downs, luck and bad luck. Keep moving forward! It often feels so slow in the day to day growth but when you look back a few years at how far you've come, it's truly amazing! +There’s only one reason that DOJ is putting it out there that Hedge funds are possibly manipulating prices…. + +Because DIRECT REGISTERING SHARES is about to put them all in a fucking pickle and there is no way out except someone getting fucked. + +Before DRSing the news had slowed, the sec did their song and dance, and it seemed like some fines was all that was going to come of this. + +But holy shit the world has felt like it’s turned upside since DRSing has gained traction.. the ploy interviews with laugh tracks, the delay in releasing the game stock report, the economy hanging on by strings while articles attack people for being educated and asking questions. These inflated numbers are finally making other subreddits flinch. Defaults and new variant being the blame for minor spy dips while CEOs are selling off their portion of company stock. + +I’m not saying that GME is the reason for the impending crash, it just opened the door to the disgusting acts going on behind the scenes of the casino of our economy. We will be the reason many other companies don’t get fucked and destroyed by the powerful in this country. + +They need to put this blame on someone and it’s only because we decided to take action and some retards finally transcribed cone poo tear chair + + +buckle up buckaroos and DRS your shares. +The 0.1 percenters are buying up loads of Bitcoin and pumping the price. + +Their goals it pump the price as high as possible until Dec 11 when CME futures are released. + +Then they will open huge short positions on the market and start dumping their Bitcoin. The dump will cause an immediate flash crash and they will profit immensely from the bets on shorts. + +It almost seems too easy. I would be kind of surprised if Winklewii twins are not contemplating doing exactly that. After all, that would be in their rational self interest. + +Thoughts? +In India, we have REITs primarily focused on commercial real estate properties having 7-9% rental yields. + +In listed REITs, Most of the completed properties are pre-leased to big companies. +Why no residential? As yields of 1-3% make them unattractive to investors. + +REITs have to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to their shareholders. + +Both listed REITs trade at 6-7% dividend yield + +Moreover, 80% of their total value must come from completed & income-generating properties + it must avoid speculative land acquisitions. + +Debt restrictions +Debt Not more than 49% of the total equity. + +REITs are traded on the exchange (like stocks). +So, Instant liquidity in a very illiquid product (Bulky Commercial Real Estate) + +Risks with Investing in REITs + +- Slowdown in Commercial RE +- Oversupply: Renegotiation at lower rates +- Concentration risks (tenant & location wise) +- Difference b/w REIT yield & FD rate +- Broader stock market movements will have an impact on unit price +I am unable to understand why the PE of Monte Carlo is so low compared to other similar companies. Its a debt free, profitable company and profits are constantly growing. Monte Carlo even pays dividend. I only see a grossly undervalued company, is there something i am missing? +Can someone please explain why the stock is declining since 3-4 years? +all the investments that would've made sense are just wildly overvalued in my perspective. +for example, even ETF's like ICLN have already doubled past 6 months. i cannot foresee much further growth in the coming year. +it feels like they price in what might have happened a year from now.. +P/E's are insane in almost every market as well +^(or maybe there's something bigger going straight over my head, and i'm being ridiculous?) +Greetings Apes! My spaghettios were purple and I took it as a sign. + +A lot to talk about today, but 3 major things: + +* DRSBot and Scraper datasets converging +* What happened to 10/19's data? +* Holy shit today was crazy + +# DRSBOT Data + +Today, I got my hands on the DRSBOT dataset, and I cross-referenced it against the scraper's data... and subsequently found about 200 posts that were overlooked by the scraper. The way that I authored [computershared.net](https://computershared.net), I have the ability to "rewrite history", so that I can go back and add a post I missed from October, and everything will update accordingly (including average over time). + +It's easy to see how it's changed if we compare yesterday's chart to today's. + +&#x200B; + +[Average over time as of yesterday](https://preview.redd.it/g9896fl1m8481.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f4f687de2c301cd734d22b4d5a8014d8eaf7114) + +&#x200B; + +[Average over time today](https://preview.redd.it/0nwia5c6m8481.png?width=1556&format=png&auto=webp&s=d929de962ac4c3855cbf1a0301b3aec845d77358) + +So please don't panik. I did rewrite some history; the chart has changed. The truth is, it's now more accurate. Yesterday, the sample size was 7.99%. Today it's 8.5%. That's a win. + +# 10/19's purple boner + +If you've looked at [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) prior to today, you've seen 10/19. It was the last bonkers DRS day. 82k shares counted. + +[Shares added over time as of yesterday](https://preview.redd.it/sqp2xpgtm8481.png?width=1562&format=png&auto=webp&s=59e55f1a93c4102da281462279eb2e5ebb3d364c) + +So what happened to it? It's been neutered? It's been overshadowed. This is fud manipulation?! lul + +[Shares over time today](https://preview.redd.it/cv4bty87n8481.png?width=1553&format=png&auto=webp&s=0dc79fbd45742a62596602850f7062ceff42cb4d) + +HOW DIS HAPN? + +This is an artifact of how I calculate shares per account. When an Ape posts a portfolio screenshot, then at a later date posts an updated screenshot, I DON'T COUNT the older record anymore. + +learn more about my methodology here: [https://www.reddit.com/user/jonpro03/comments/q7o6ra/drs\_infographics\_faqs/](https://www.reddit.com/user/jonpro03/comments/q7o6ra/drs_infographics_faqs/) + +So nothing was lost, it just moved. + +EDIT: I intend to fix this. It wasn't really ever a noticeable problem before, and in the end, the average is still correct... It just doesn't make sense charting it like that. + +# Today was BONKERS + +What more can I say. + +300 new accounts discovered today - RECORD + +Today's average shares/account: 329.51 - RECORD + +100K shares counted in 24 hours - RECORD + +Everything about today was crazy, and I spent hours and hours reviewing/auditing the data to make sure it was right. + +CHEERS APES! I'll see you on the moon! +TL;DR - Stock split incoming! + +&#x200B; + +This is all the confirmation we need! I'm not much for pleasantries so I just want to dive into this with my interpretation. This isn't financial advice, I lick golf balls for good luck. + +&#x200B; + +This 8-k has a two fold purpose, a stock split and future dividend allowances. Here is the pasted paragraph from the 8-k, bold is my own: + +&#x200B; + +On March 31, 2022, GameStop Corp. (the “Company” or “GameStop”) announced its plan to request stockholder approval at the upcoming 2022 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) for an **increase in the number of authorized shares** of Class A common stock from **300,000,000 to 1,000,000,000** through an amendment to the Company’s Third Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation (the “Charter Amendment”) **in order to implement a stock split** of the Company’s Class A common stock **in the form of a stock dividend** and provide flexibility for future corporate needs. GameStop also intends to request stockholder approval at the Annual Meeting for a new incentive plan (the “2022 Equity Plan”) to support future compensatory equity issuances. If the 2022 Equity Plan is approved by stockholders, it will replace the current GameStop Corp. 2019 Incentive Plan (the “2019 Plan”), and 8,000,000 shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, plus any shares subject to the 2019 Plan that expire, are forfeited, cancelled, terminated or settled in cash after the 2022 Plan is effective, will be available for issuance under the 2022 Plan. GameStop’s Board of Directors has approved both stockholder proposals, but the stock dividend will be contingent on final Board approval. + +&#x200B; + +This is absolutely huge as it helps set up a potential NFT Dividend as well as a stock split which would recall all existing shares and re-issue the newly split shares. Oh and who likes NFT dividends that can't be replicated??? ME!!!! + +&#x200B; + +Can I get an amen! RC has been trying to move as quickly as possible with this and we have evidence through this filing that he is truly trying to rek the SHFs. + +&#x200B; + +Buckle up! + +&#x200B; + +TL;DR - Stock split incoming! +Before I start. Having done some DD I have nothing against this company **long** term but they have some real challenges ahead with a lot of risk, and the potential for further share dilution (on top of the already outstanding 200 million options and performance bonuses) is very real. The peak we witnessed in the midst of delays to there B2B app launching, while having practically zero revenue and bleeding money was absurd. + +Also remember rule 5 nothing on the sub should be taken as financial advice don’t go blaming others for your bad decisions. This post is intended as entertainment and a wake the fuck up to those [posting and up-voting conspiracy theories](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/o2hwwy/yall_forgot_theres_games_being_played_the/). + +If you can’t be bother going any further. Here is the post TLDR- Credit u/toolman2019 + +&#x200B; + +[TLDR](https://preview.redd.it/9pj599osf5671.jpg?width=583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3060a0279d8c7c48c69ebe9fa26dddf8cc0ea488) + +Gather round children and hear the tail of DW8, its a story of greed, ignorance and false prophets. It all begins in the Summer of 2021, the world had just awoken to the sound of retarded apes tearing down US hedge funds and making fists full of cash along the way. Closer to home some local reddit users neuron fired and they went in search of our very own ASX\_bets. Wallets open, minds clouded, a great migration was at hand, resulting in the perfect storm. + +![img](t33f7dfzf5671 " +") + +[The uptick is on Feb 15th to the day baby!!](https://preview.redd.it/at52he91g5671.png?width=539&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a66f4ded9f25015708e25b954376db1aa864a28) + +# The DD? + +Waiter: Here is your DD Sir. + +https://preview.redd.it/mifif038g5671.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=c48dc1883f9fe9a1cb5aab4a4f213de09f8bc2f9 + +ASX\_bets: There is more holes in this than there is cheese. + +Waiter: Exactly Sir. + +Waiter: Would you like to try the Tacos instead Sir. + +ASX\_bets: Ok. + +https://preview.redd.it/mzy8xt3ag5671.png?width=716&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2cbdf8cf8132ef147e4c25b002769100f3f6b0d + +# The Catalyst + +Now DW8 had been around ASX\_bets long before WSB went off the rails but its growth had remained in the bounds of reality up until this point. But just as our migration story was under way a double punch was thrown and DW8 ignited all engines. + +Feb 15 (Monday): + +\- DW8 Announcement - WINEDEPOT partners with Vivino + +\- [DW8 and why you should own it. Hits the streets](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lk4r65/dw8_and_why_you_should_own_it/) + +\- Probably some ball tickling going on over at HC too but I couldn’t be bothered checking. + +Our local DD started out with the usual don’t listen to me warnings, to which we can give the OP credit. But within the TLDR can be found true gems of insight. + +\> This is a fast growing company with proven management, at a currently undervalued sp, set to moon in March and never come down. Get in while you can so you can finally buy a lambo or feed your kids for once. + +The share price has now been on a steady climb for a week now before we get some much overdue DD :P. + +Feb 20 (Saturday): + +\- [The DW8 write up](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lnwuhw/dw8_the_write_up/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +Credit to the OP as he is bullish but at least remains realistic. However one can assume some stopped reading the sentence once they get to the bit with the target price. + +\> I would not be surpised at all if we are trading in the 20-25c range by the end of the year once the growth becomes exponential. + +The share price proceeds to jump from 5.8c on 7c on the coming Monday. + +Feb 22 (Monday): + +[DW8 Coward Gains - Hope you read my DD over the weekend!](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lpgssp/dw8_coward_gains_hope_you_read_my_dd_over_the/) + +The trend of DD and cowards gain continue at a steady pace and the share price marches on. Collective madness is in full swing suddenly a company losing money with \~700K in **REVEUNUE** in the previous quarter is worth around $400 million by April 9th. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bpqzth1cg5671.png?width=627&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1acf2a0870827aef19a93561797569326c568a9 + +There were many posts that followed but here is just a few to let you feel the atmosphere. + +March 9: + +[DW8 - 10C Party! Hope you got your tickets!](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m0vh3d/dw8_10c_party_hope_you_got_your_tickets/) + +[DW8 - The Write Up 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1387e/dw8_the_write_up_2/) + +March 26: + +[I'll be one of many today I suppose – DW8](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mdhw9x/ill_be_one_of_many_today_i_suppose_dw8/) + +April 1: + +[DW8 Yolo - $115k > $415k. Join the (r)evolution!](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mhp4gd/dw8_yolo_115k_415k_join_the_revolution/) + +# The Pied Piper + +Now with every good story there has to be a villain, and I believe the DW8 story is no exception. I’m going to call someone out for proof and if I’m wrong I’ll willingly accept a ban as punishment if the mods decide it necessary. Either way I think proof is needed. + +In between every gains or DD post there are thousands of comments, and a user who seems solely put on this earth to comment about DW8 in the dailys and posts is our musical friend u/EquivalentTone365. Every single reddit comment they have made appears to be around DW8 and our friend appears to be somewhat of a high roller. Filling wide eyed onlookers with pride and joy, as they encourage them to join along. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wi9r7wqfg5671.png?width=722&format=png&auto=webp&s=e622a378312b2b155587d4d5ea45ec45888dac5d + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/3srasmqgg5671.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae5ffbaa7f4a51acec00f2a9747eff26745bd6b2 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/iy4grzrhg5671.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b7bc411284b57f6f7132316185ab86330899bea + +So with 5.6 million shares even at a buy in of 3c which our musical friend claims to already have exceeded, we can assume a total cost of $168,000, and quite possibly one of our biggest resident holders. There is just one problem with that. Before the Pied Piper joined us at ASX\_bets they visited r/fiaustralia, and as you will see appears to have not the financial means. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l0q2o3jig5671.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a9bbbf765bb3d4f56e949ccada2fc55943ee78f + +https://preview.redd.it/sejbr0pjg5671.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=b494e8888ddd6df48cc1a165e191f00007e05925 + +# It ends with a whimper not a bang + +At least for now. It seem unfortunately neither the Pied Piper or our prolific gains poster took profits. And some have taken to conspiracy theories rather than accept the obvious. DW8s time may come but that time is not yet. Good luck to all bag holders you may still get your jet. +I started programming when I was 14. I started to actually make money off of it when I was 16. After graduating high school I was hired by an agency and was already making decent money so I just skipped college. By the time my friends were graduating college I was already making six figure income. I lived with my parents until I was 24 and basically saved everything I made while I lived with them. I moved out at 24 and I bought a 4 bedroom house putting 50% down and rent out the other three rooms to some friends. The rental income from them more than pays for my mortgage, insurance, and taxes for my house, and nearly the utilities. + +I have never seen the point in having expensive things, so I still drive a car I got in 2006. At the current rate that I spend money, it would take more than 30 years to deplete my savings, and this isn't even taking into account the interest from my investments - with those taking into account I could theoretically just live off the interest (health insurance throws a wrench in that though). But as I love programming and web development, I don't plan to ever quit and will keep doing it as a freelancer 5-10 hours a week - the income from this will be more than enough to cover my extremely low monthly expenses, including health insurance which I will have to purchase myself (the health insurance will be by far my biggest monthly expense). I am not married, I do not have kids and do not plan on either of these things. Got out of a serious relationship of many years, and it made me realize I am happiest being single - I enjoy freedom to pursue my own desires and hobbies and do not want to be tied down by anything. + +I just do not understand the obsession so many people have with working hard to make money but then dumping it all on luxury items that will not make them happy. For me, free time is what makes me happy. There are so many things I want to do in life that I simply cannot do with a full time job. MMA, bodybuilding, hiking, fishing, playing MMOs, running a D&D group as a DM, writing software for non-profits, working on my own personal projects, road tripping with friends across the US. A full time job really prevents me from fully devoting myself to these things. I get some people are machines who sleep 4 hours a night, and still manage to do all they want, but for me I need my 8 hours of sleep, and working usually about 50 hours a week plus staying up to date on my profession plus exercise and managing a household doesn't leave time for much else. I get an hour of downtime on a weekday, if I'm lucky. That's just depressing. + +I'm tired of working for other people. I'm tired of never having time for anything. My youth is disappearing, and I want to enjoy life before I get too old. What is the point of having worked so hard and saved up so much money, if I can't just quit and enjoy life now? + +TLDR: I have zero debt, and even without a full time job I would have the income from investments and freelancing and rental income that still exceeds my monthly expenses by about 25%. I have saved 80-90% of my post tax income since I was 16. + +My biggest concern is that if I decide to quit and retire, that it will be an irreversible thing and that I won't be able to get hired again, and if something happens 10 years down the road and I need more income, I'll be screwed. I will still be freelancing 5-10 hours a week, however, so I'll still be up to date on my skillset and would have something to put on my resume. Theoretically I could also take on more freelancing work if I wanted to raise my income. + +I just never have heard of someone retiring in their 20s, and am wondering if there is a reason for it. I feel like I need some sort of validation of my thoughts here before I take the plunge and do something as radical as retiring at 29. Am I a fool to even consider this? + +UPDATE: So I quit my job and have now just started working as a contractor. My goal when I quit was to just contract for 10 hours a week, but more and more people keep giving me projects that I'm now almost working more than I did before I quit my job. The upside is that I'm making much more money than I did before I quit. I need to find a happy medium where I only take on projects that really interest me so that I still have all the free time I truly desire. +Disclaimer: This is not my own DD but comes from the most prolific DD poster of QSC on Stockhouse and was posted last night. + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +By this weekend, QuestCap should have about 45 testing sites up and running. So, we will use the 7-day rolling average of 82 tests per day per site and an average test price of $85 per test; + +These 45 testing sites perform 45x82=3690 tests each day, and revenue is 3690x$85=$313,650 each day. Now, we calculate $313,650x30=$9,409,500 per month. These calculations are for USD now convert this amount to Canadian Dollars $9,409,500x1.29=$12,138,255. and yearly revenue should be $145,659,060.  + +Now we can calculate the profit margin of $145,659,060 and use lower than the company projected EBTIDA 50% = $72,859,530 (Company projected EBITDA is 55%) [**https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/margin**](https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/margin) + +So **without any P/E rato, the QSC share price should be somewhere 0.48 cents**. Most of the companies in the medical field use a PE Ratio between 5 to 40. You can calculate the P/E Ratio as you like. Whatever P/E Ratio you use or even without any P/E Ratio, QuestCap share price should be much higher. [**http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/\~adamodar/New\_Home\_Page/datafile/pedata.html**](http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html) + +Now fast forward to the mid-end of January, when Medi-volve should have 100+ tasting centres up and running. At that point, revenue/earning/stock price jumps to more than double. 100x82=8200 test per day generating $697,00 per day and USD 20,910,000 that comes to $26,973,900 Canadian per Month. That is $323,686,800 per year, and the projected EBTIDA calculation with 50% comes to $161,843,400. Little over a $1 per share, and even with a P/E Ration of 5, Medi-Volve should be trading over $5.   + +According to QuestCap management, we should see over 700 testing sites by the end of March. After January, we will see where is this company is heading and calculate then. These 700 testing sites can bring a large sum of revenue and, in return, higher stock price.  + +**Here is another stream that adds more revenue.** + +RESAAS selling testing kits to 500,000 realtors and online in the USA, Australia and Spain. Sanaty IPS with two locations offering medical service and Covid-19 testing in Columbia S.A.  + +After Pandemic, Medi-Vole can move to any of these options;  + +* Tasting lab + flu shots and Covid-19 Vaccine +* Telehealth: Technology meets health care +* All kinds of in vitro testing +* Mobile medical services +* Retail generic medicines +* Sell medical cannabis.  + +These are my assumption before you buy or sell, do your own due diligence or read the company projections. +Discussion for the day. Free discussion to discuss what your plays are and how your portfolio is doing. + +NEW SUGGESTION: Add your entry, exit and stop loss for the positions. This is a community to learn + +**Downvotes are discouraged. Be friendly.** + +**Use $SYMBOL FORMAT** ($BB or $[BB.TO](https://BB.TO)) +Ev Battery Tech + +Interesting technology; combining AI learning and block chain to patented battery management solutions. Their products will be focused towards the following markets: EV, ESS, Smart Grid and Charging Systems, Blockchain Infrastructure, and battery recycling. + +https://www.evbattery.tech/technology + +Will be part of a 100M project in Squamish BC. 604 🤘🏻 + +https://cc8a054f-2d87-446b-bcaa-3b7bf80abf65.filesusr.com/ugd/db135f_ee44a00608f24db481c09fa1dec116df.pdf + +Partnered with Jiangsu Rich Power and Intelligent Battery Technologies + + +https://www.electronicsb2b.com/industry-buzz/extreme-vehicle-battery-technologies-signs-agreement-with-jiangsu-richpower-new-energy-and-intelligent-battery-technologies/ + + +Rich Power checks out. They have a own a fair share of the battery market in China. + +What do you guys think? +With the current gas crisis being added to the logistics crisis. Along with feed in costs from global commodity prices, as well as wage growth inflation. And to top it off China seems to be showing it's first signs of debt issues. Do we feel that we are looking at the inevitable end of the party or do people feel that this bull has further to run before the market turns bearish? I know that the real answer to this is I'll tell you once it's happened but I just wanted to hear peoples opinions on this. + +For my tuppence I still think that until interest rates hit 2 or 3 percent equity prices are going to be pushed up and the current pullback will be seen as a buying opportunity, however I do feel that we may be closer to the end than the beginning of the bull market. +Here on /r/financialindependence I read a lot of stories of many people's rather smooth transition from high school to a good college and into an immediately well paying career path that will set them up for life with little worry. Some of us however have taken more unconventional paths. + +Here's a summarization of my adult working life: + +Straight up - I was very unsuccessful financially for the first decade of my adult life. + +In college I was not a hard worker, most of my spare change went to beer, and a serious bout of depression almost flunked me out and took me several extra years to get my grades back up. I had grown up with helicopter parents that severely limited my social life, so I viewed college as an escape from their grasp and as an excuse to have fun more than a way to get educated and set up my future. I ended up barely graduated in 2011 with a degree that had been completely neutered by the 2008 financial crisis (Urban Planning). I had worked intermittently in college during my breaks and also on an on-campus job and was able to pay cash for my first car (a used Toyota Corolla) that I still drive today. Other than that, I was broke when I graduated. + +I didn't get a job straight out of college. I had an internship opportunity through a family friend that had been rescinded due to slashed budgets. I had to move back home with my parents to a VLCOL small town where there was no work to be had; I couldn't even land a 3rd shift gas station attendant job. After 10 months of unemployment and lots of boredom and depression, a chance encounter actually landed me an entry level job in my field: $11/hr conducting surveys for the local planning commission in a MCOL city; a far cry from the standard starting salary of $50k/yr that career path would have afforded me had I been just a few years older but hey, it was a job. + +Over the next year I did everything I could to be as frugal as I possible: I lived in a friend's partially finished attic for $100/mo, I biked over driving every chance I could, grocery shopping was only done at Aldi and Walmart, I limited my recreational activities to free events and sports, and my only vacations were either to my parent's house or to visit my sister in another city two hours away. I managed to save up $4000 that first year and opened up my first Roth IRA. Very exciting! + +The problem is that I realized that I hated my field of work. The education I received didn't properly set me up to work in this new post-2008 financial and political world. I didn't like the prospects of my future career, the culture of the workforce, and the fact that our work was continuously blown up by politicians routinely making poor decisions. I realized that my dream of making utopian cities would never come true. I grew to hate the city I lived in and the people I interacted with. I needed a change. + +In late 2013 I quit my job on a Friday and by Monday I had packed my car and was off to a new VHCOL city to start over with $3500 in my pocket and no job prospects. A friend there had offered to let me sleep on the couch and I took him up on it. Would I ever recommend anyone does this? No, but in a way I was desperate and still pretty young so I chanced it. Unfortunately, this VHCOL city also had almost no job prospects in my field, and for the next year I desperately applied to every job I could while taking little side jobs here and there to generate some cash flow. + +By October of 2014, I once again was broke. Here I was, 26 years old, college educated, and I was sleeping on a couch with no money, no job, no girlfriend, no prospects in life, etc. I hadn't contributed to my Roth IRA at all in the past two years. My parents sent me $400 to get gas and an oil change so I could move back home. The local factory had picked up and they had job openings; my future as a assembly line worker was being solidified. + +On a stroke of sheer luck, I found my drunk neighbor outside one night; he had lost his keys at a bar and was locked out of his home. I called for a locksmith to come, and I stayed with my neighbor while he waited. We got to talking and I told him the story I just told above. He very drunkenly took sympathy and offered me a temporary job in the warehouse he managed for $10/hr. He was clear that the work would suck and many people didn't last long, but I didn't care. I was elated and took him up on it immediately. + +I busted my ass for the next month working every moment I could and saving every penny. The company liked me so much that they decided to keep me around. + Within two months I was off the couch and was moving in with a friend....into his sunroom. But it wasn't the couch and it was only $250/mo! I was able to open up a new bank account with $1000. I was going places! + +The next several years were still tough: I only received small increases in pay, I was passed over for promotions by other more well connected people, and I was still living quite literally in a closet. Through overtime I was barely crossing the $30k per year mark. And hanging over all of this was that I was still living in a VHCOL city, so that income did not take me very far. + +At the beginning of 2017, the promotion finally came. My income increased 50% and I was able to move out of the closet and into my own bedroom. I was able to now start saving money at a good tick. The problem was that I was so scared of returning to my old financial situation that I kept all of my money in cash. 2008 and all that it did to me and others still scared the fuck out of me. I had worked so hard for that cash and I was not going to lose it. + +2018 comes and my pay increased another 25%, and then that summer I decided to log in to my Vanguard account for the first time in years. What I found was that I had totally forgotten to invest that $4000 that I had deposited in 2012 and had been sitting in a settlement fund. The growth over the years meant that that $4000 had turned into $11000, which is great, but I did some calculations and found that had I put it in VTSAX, it would have become ~ $30,000. I was pissed! + +From that day forward, I have been very focused about saving and investing my money. I found a pretty cheap little apartment for my area ($1000/mo with all utilities included) and I save about 50% of my take home earnings. Last year (2019) I crossed the $70k income threshold for the first time and I payed off the last of my student loans. My emergency fund grew to be big enough to cover a full year of expenses which has removed a ton of stress. I have a separate CD fund set up that will allow me to buy a car either for cash or with the help of a small loan once my trusty Corolla finally dies. I have been very lucky through the pandemic and have not only maintained my employment but also picked up a side gig. I expect to cross at least the $85k income threshold this year (2020). It's still not a ton of money living in a VHCOL city, but I've found little ways to stretch my money further than it should. Purchasing a home is nowhere in my near future unfortunately, but that's just the way it is right now when the cheapest housing unit of any kind for sale is +$600K. + +But what I'm most proud of financially is that for the first time in my life I recently crossed the $100,000 net worth level at the age of 32. It's hard to believe how far I've come in the last 5 or 6 years from when I was straight up broke. Index funds are absolute wonders! At my current pace I expect to become a millionaire by the time I'm 43. I've faced a lot of failures both internal and external so the prospect of this to me is elating. I took risks that few would advise, and was willing to take on jobs that many would consider beneath themselves. + +I share my experiences because I'm sure like many others I see the stories posted here about the full scholarship magna cum laude software developer that immediately gets a job at Google and will be able to retire at 35 and this can be very discouraging for us more "average" folk. The path isn't easy for most of us, but it is worth it. Luck can and does play a big role for us all; don't try to hide or avoid it, just embrace it and take advantage of the opportunities that come your way. I don't know if I will ever fully achieve the Retirement Early part of FIRE, but I am damn proud that I can see the Financial Independence part in my future. +It's the first time ever I move in with someone. I've always been super independent and on top of my shit with my expenses. + +Now I'm thinking, how do couples manage their expenses? Should we open a joint account or not worth it? Who spends for what? How to keep track of everything (there's going to be a lot of expenses to furnish the place in a couple of weeks), do you recommend splitting everything evenly? + +Thanks for any advice! + +EDIT: I can't believe how many answers this got, thanks a lot everyone, so many good points and things to consider, that I hadn't even thought about. I'm sorry I obviously can't reply to each and everyone of you but thank you for taking the time to reply! +And I got it! + +I wrote out a formal letter bulleting my successes over the past four years, named my figure and the reasons I was asking for that specific figure, attached my research, and had a meeting with my manager to go over everything. I didn’t feel like it went well. My manager didn’t seem interested in discussing anything with me. She took the letter from me and that was that. I left feeling pretty discouraged. + +The thing is, I was making 11% below the average for my job title in our area, but I frequently take on the responsibilities of other job titles. So I asked for a 15% raise. I absolutely did not think they would give me that much, but I had hoped that it would leave room for some negotiation. I really wanted that 11%. If they were unwilling to negotiate, I decided I’d have to find a new job after my leave (see below - currently pregnant). I know I am worth more than I was making. + +It took two weeks to hear back. Unfortunately, it was really bad timing. I wanted to ask for a raise a while ago, but my company has been undergoing some awkward changes for about seven months. It NEVER seemed like a good time to take my chances, until I realized there wouldn’t be a good time for a while and I was running out of time. I am pregnant, going on STD soon, and figured it was now or never. I needed the extra cash. When my manager finally called me in, she told me how much they all appreciate my efforts and how nothing I’ve done has gone unnoticed. She offered me the 11% I was secretly hoping for, and I took it! + +I still can’t believe it! I’m not an executive or anything like that. I’m a glorified receptionist in the eyes of most, so it took a lot of confidence building for me to decide that I deserved this raise and I deserved the opportunity to ask for it, even though I had no idea if how I was going about it was right or wrong. This will definitely help soften the blow of a new baby for my husband and I while we pay off thousands in medical debt (not including what’s to come after the birth). + +I just wanted to share my good news. Thanks for reading!! +As the title says I’m recently sober. I have almost 10 months free from alcohol. I honest to God never thought I would be free from that awful place but here I am. + +I relocated to Austin, TX from Portland, OR to get sober and to stop being a weak loser at the age of 28. Now I’m 29. Around two months of being here, I put pen to paper about my finances. I accumulated around 50,000 total. Yikes, I know. I ended up paying off about 20,000 in 8 months. I still have a remainder of 30,000ish. + +I make 41,000 a year as a line cook. I get full benefits, 401k, paid holidays, small bonus at Christmas. I don’t start work until 3 pm every day so I was able to start walking dogs, house sitting, donating plasma, and whatever odd jobs. I’m moving into my own place in a couple months sooo I’m nervous. I’m single and have no kids. + +I’ve done life style changes to help save such as I dropped smoking, eating out, don’t buy expensive clothes, cut my hair short to not spend money getting it done, limit driving (only to jobs and back). I also invested in a MacBook so that I could teach myself how to code. I purchased some courses on Udemy, follow developers on twitters, and watch YouTube vids, and listen to podcasts. I’m actually getting quite good now. + +I couldn’t work a ton at the beginning because I had a legitimate drinking career (14 years). At ten months, I finally don’t feel like a freaking dumpster fire thats been put out and restarted a billion times. I would appreciate any advice on how to proceed from this point on. + +Goals: Financial Freedom, Career change, investments, emergency fund, spending money (mainly for furniture and things for my apartment), passive income + +I can bring in about 3,000 a month after insurance and taxes are taken out. I have to put aside time to code because I have a major income problem. + +Expenses: +Rent+Utilities: 1,150 +Car/Renters Insurance: 170 +Cellphone: 123 +Groceries: 350 +Gas: 120 +Student loan principal: 156 +Therapy: 60 + +Debt: +Student loans (federal): 28,172 +Credit card: 350 +Car: 600 +Taxes (2022): 1500 (COVID related so I owe, it’s awesome) +Hi guys, + +So it seems that most economists hate price controls as it leads to shortages for example. + +I’m not sure why that is but if I had to guess it’s because things are priced at less than what people are willing to pay them for, so they purchase more of what they need - also presumably because they don’t know how long the controls will last and will take advantage of it while it lasts. + +If this is the reason, I have a potential workaround and was wondering if it would work. + +Let’s say we price controlled food so that it was affordable for all and ALSO placed a limit as to how much you could take. Don’t we get the best of both worlds in this case? + +Food is affordable to all and there is no shortages of it? + +Would the issue be the political ramifications of this? + +I.e. businesses would leave the country etc… + +Thanks in advance. +I come from a math background working as a data analyst right now. Lately, I've been getting more and more interested in economics and considering getting a master's. I really like learning about the material and I feel like it could be helpful in a data science job because of econometrics and also the stuff you learn about behavior of customers when there is a change in price/supply. However, I don't have formal background in economics and I also realize that masters' in economics is rather uncommon in the US. And I'm not even sure if I'm understanding economics correctly (probably not). + +At the moment I am debating between a masters in statistics and economics. I know exactly what to expect from a masters in statistics so I don't have any questions there. But for economics masters', I don't feel knowledgeable at all. + +So I would like to hear from economists working as data scientists. Did your econ background help you at all? Also, if you could go back, would you have gotten a degree in statistics or economics? And why? +Imagine a future where robots and AI have surpassed humans in their ability to perform jobs. They're stronger, more precise, more creative, more empathetic, more flexible - name a skill, and the robot beats the human at it. Let's dodge for the moment the hairy question of whether owning a robot like that constitutes slavery (assume ownership works like today, humans and companies can own robots and AIs). Assume also that robots are long-lasting and power efficient so the marginal cost of running them is minuscule. Long story short, the market value of labor drops to near zero, as robot labor outperforms human labor on every metric (except for branding/excentricism, e.g. to show off your human butler). Historically, labor displaced by automation has found new jobs, that they could still perform better than machines - but imagine in our scenario, that we've finally run out of those, the robots now beat us at everything, there's no job we can come up with where the robot isn't already superior. + +How do you maintain the purchasing power of consumers in a scenario like that, in order to maintain a market economy? Most consumers get their money by selling their labor, but the market value of that has just tanked. Sure, goods are cheaper as well now that they are produced, transported and sold by robots (production costs are now basically energy + raw material costs), but as long as they are just cheap, rather than free, then that's no use to the majority of people who are now unemployable. + +If your answer is Universal Basic Income, then how do you fund it? Most of taxation currently comes from taxing labor, and in our scenario that has now mostly disappeared. We might increase VAT, but can that ever be enough to fund the "stipend" from which the VAT will be drawn when spent? (that doesn't seem to add up, some of the money flowing to the corporation would need to eventually make it's way back into the hands of a consumer, like it currently does via salaries). Since all these corporations that own all these robots are now massively profitable without employing anyone, maybe we can tax all this economic activity that is still going on there? But Amazon and others have shown that you can basically defer corporate taxation indefinitely by continuously reinvesting all your surplus cash and thus never actually making a profit. Do we start taxing them on revenue instead? Or do we tax the owners of the corporations? We've recently learned that stock owners can basically defer realization on their stock gains indefinitely too, by taking out loans instead of cashing in. So do we tax them on gains annually whether they sell or not? Or do we tax them on wealth instead of income? + +Could some combination of these actually be enough to fund a UBI in scenario like that? If yes, how would it affect the economy if all these things that are currently taxed relatively little compared to labor were taxed a lot more? If no, do we need to be thinking in some completely other direction, to still make a market economy work in a scenario like that? + +Edit 1: by using the phrase "market value" I seem to have implied that robots are already completely deployed everywhere in the market - I didn't mean to imply that (sorry, I'm an engineer, not an economist). I'm asking about the scenario where they exist, but might not have been made widely available yet (i.e. I don't want to assume everyone has a robot, because IMO that would be jumping the gun to assume that will come to pass). + +Edit 2: to clarify, minuscule power draw is compared to a human. Assume servos, batteries, cpus and such with a power draw similar to what we know today, not magic perpetual motion machines. So the cost of running these is small (especially compared to a human) but not non-trivial (at least no more trivial than the running of other well-made machines). +Pulte buys 6 figures worth of GME. He is very vocal about GME. He does an AMA with us. Hedge funds contact him to ask what he is doing. The next day 75,000 puts are place on his “previous” company PulteGroup Inc. We are for sure winning. Why would Hedgies attack someone who is “throwing their money away on meme stocks?” +Answer: HEDGIES R FUK + +Edit: He is no longer involved in PulteGroup Inc. +Since in all probabilities insurance premiums are set to rise after 30th November, 2021. I wanted to share my experience of the policy issuing process. There is not much detailed info of the processes followed by different insurers on this subreddit, so hopefully this will help out some folks. + +&#x200B; + +Brief about me: 27M, only child, unmarried and no dependents currently, both parents retiring over the next 3 years. My profile doesn't typically fit into someone who really needs a life insurance but I believed that I would need one sooner rather than later, so decided to go ahead and get one. + +&#x200B; + +Cover Amount: 2 Cr. Chose an amount based on what I believed would be more than sufficient (based on current household expenses) in case of death in the next 15-20 years. Post that time period my investments should be able to take care of everything and the policy could be discontinued if I wished + +&#x200B; + +Policy Type: Was clear about getting a vanilla term insurance which pays out a lump sum in case of death and that's pretty much it. Would consider riders in case they come at a miniscule cost. + +&#x200B; + +Why Aegon: Lowest premium out of all options listed on both Policybazaar and Coverfox. Did a lot of research on how to chose a life insurer but couldn't really see any advantage of going with the more popular bands plus Aegon does physical medical tests (no video medical etc.), so claim rejection can not be done on this basis. + +&#x200B; + +The Policy issuing process and timeline: + +1. Made the payment on 20th Oct after filling the details on Aegon's website. +2. On 21st Oct was asked to upload 6 month payslip and Covid Vaccine certificate (uploaded on same day). +3. Got asked for additional documents - 6 month bank statement, covid positve and negative reports and treatment records (I had declared that I had previously gotten Covid), submitted the docs on the same day. Parallelly a medical (ECG and blood test) was scheduled for 23rd Oct. +4. 23rd Oct, both ECG and blood sample collection was done at home which took about 30 mins in total. Fairly smooth process. +5. A week later on 31st Oct was informed that additional tests needed to be conducted. A Chest X-ray was required, as well a repeat ECG from a different lab (found later that the first ECG results were extremely abnormal) +6. Next day got a call to schedule the medical tests, but was going out of town due to Diwali break, so the process stalled until 8th Nov. +7. On 10th Nov, got a call to schedule the medical tests for which I would have to got to a centre. Got this scheduled for the weekend. +8. 13th Nov, Went to the centre (2 kms away from my residence) and got the X-ray and ECG done. This took about 30 mins. Got intimated the same day that tests were successfully completed and policy was under review +9. On 19th Nov, received a revised quote. Premium increased by Rs. 600 citing age change during the process (I had applied for the policy only a week before my birthday and their sales rep had already told me before that their will be a revision of around 500-600 Rs as it wouldnt be possible for them to complete their process in a week) +10. Payed the balance amount and policy issued within an hour. +11. Received the policy document. Reports of all medical tests that they conducted were available on their iassist portal + +The total process took around a month, but possibly would have been done in 3 weeks had I not gone out of town for Diwali. + +&#x200B; + +For folks considering Aegon's life insurance, please check with them if revised premiums would be applicable to you or not in case you apply before 30th Nov as their process would take at least 3 weeks to be completed. + +&#x200B; + +Overall my experience was fairly smooth and the customer support was top notch throughout the month. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks for reading :) +Good evening everyone, I just got some excellent news this week and I wanted to quickly share my non-traditional journey for those who may feel a little stuck. + +I started in construction when I was 17 years old because I was a pudgy teen that wanted to lose weight before his senior year. Construction and trades in general do not get enough attention as genuine career paths. Let me share my journey for some perspective and perhaps you can apply what I've done/ learned to your own career. + +At 17 I made $8.00/ hour working for a crew that did residential foundations and framing. Very difficult work and I lost about 30lbs going into my senior year of high school. + +Upon graduating, I chose not to go to college as I did not know what I wanted to be and I knew I would just party anyway. So I went back to the same company for $9.50/ hour this time. + +At 19 I worked security at a sawmill and part time front desk at a hotel. + +Went back to construction at 20 at $11/ hr. Got really into partying (lived in a college town) and decided that wasn't good for my long term goals. Moved to a different state and tried several other jobs (manufacturing, sales, retail, etc). + +Went back into concrete foundations at 21 for $15/ hour. I got laid off in winter and moved again. Went back to security for awhile at a hospital for $13.50 hourly and then applied to a general contractor in the spring for $15 hourly again. + +At 22 I moved to the railroad (building and maintaining railroad tracks) in the same town for $16/ hour. Made it to Foreman and $18/ hour. Got fired at 24 for a very silly reason (long story). + +Moved to another company operating equipment for $17 hourly. Hours/ travel were too much (literally 85+ hour weeks) and ended at $19 hourly. + +Moved back to hometown after saving up some money. Got a job with another general contractor for $16 hourly. + +I was 26 at this point and decided I wanted more. Moved again and got a 2 year Construction Management degree. The company I applied to for work until school started (a drywall/ framing company) offered to pay for half of my schooling if I agreed to work for them for three years. I used that offer of sponsorship to secure a scholarship for the other half. Free ride schooling as a construction worker. + +I started at $15 with that company, after two weeks made it to $18 and received back pay for the first two weeks. From there, made it to $19, the $21 before graduation. After graduation I became a Foreman for $25 an hour. When the company bought a robotic total station, I was chosen to operate it because of my schooling. This bumped me to $27 an hour as I was still a Foreman as well. + +Started my own handyman business recently as well. + +My three years is now up with that company and I received an offer for the dream job I never knew existed this week. I am now 31 years old and will be a Construction Technology Support Specialist with a starting salary of $62,000 a year and a total benefit package worth $106,000 a year! + +My point is that you never know where your path will go. I started as a laborer making $8.00 an hour. I learned everything I could. Took all the certifications I could. Learned every piece of equipment I could. And took that knowledge and experience to negotiate for higher wages at my next job. Of all my raises in life, I've only gotten two without asking. I like the phrasing: "I think I am currently worth _______ , if you disagree, what do I need to do to get there?" + +Construction can be a dead-end for many... but it doesn't have to be. There are so many positions out there. Learn as much as possible, be good with people and communication, and you can go as far as you'd like in any field! + +There is no one-size-fits-all solution for life. Improve yourself and you can achieve goals you didn't even know you had. Hope this helps someone! +Apes, the boy from Bulgaria has officially started a gofundme. All contributions to be sequestered by the SEC for the benefit of apes. + +In other news, the SEC instituted, among other enforcement actions, a cease-and-desist proceeding under file#3-20171 against Robinhood which resulted in the attached December 17, 2020 order in which RH conceded it breached its fiduciary obligation to its customers by engaging in non-disclosed and otherwise unlawful PFOF practices. In plain English, they admitted fraud. + +The order imposes a $65mm penalty and sanctions against Robinhood. An additional order (not attached) was issued a few weeks back directing those amounts be set aside in a QSF administered by a court-appointed trustee for distribution to impacted apes (defined to mean Robinhood customers during the period 2015 to September 2018, when this particular fraudulent conduct was found to have occurred). + +The factual findings shed light on RH's PFOF practices and underscore the nature of the present conflict as it pertains to other broker-dealers (pay attention to the CSR's). + +Merits a close read and I promise you there are some good nuggets in here. + +P.S. Can't change the title but pardon my pronoun glitch. + +Bada bing bada boom to the moon, + +MH + +EDIT 1: Also attached the order of reference for the fund administration. + +EDIT 2: An ape just asked me to identify my source. This confuses me greatly. My source is the document I've attached in its entirety, which is part of the litigation file materials available at [www.sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov) under file no. 3-20171. + +EDIT 3: I'm being downvoted by RH shills for posting the actual filed and entered order from the SEC. Yes, I know you would have preferred a hyperbolic narrative so you can do your thing, but there's no twisting them words. No need to be coy Roy, make a new plan Stan. + +EDIT 4: Changed PPOF to PFOF. Sorry for any confusion. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xxk214q57ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e7c09ed12b57926581151d4c3dfcaf9dc010a9c + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9swcick08ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5436ef51a8fb3a9e16bd1a7c42ebc7854f77a1ac + +https://preview.redd.it/uw86q7118ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91b6d977418bb1b7872bc93344caafb6baf92387 + +https://preview.redd.it/t5kdnlk18ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=34b5ba262b0b5cb6b5cc8a71a48fa0cb540bb1ce + +https://preview.redd.it/qr60jr428ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b355fe6103eab0cc829c166afb181dae54080dd + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xzwr1zt28ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57f9a6c15226af309cd595fd9415c8a7495415c6 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zku1l2c38ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19402eb07874ae49e9ed5b646b9d61b07c7c3ce6 + +https://preview.redd.it/0n7h29y38ez61.jpg?width=816&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d3ec6401781e0d23c507ddf0654851b02fdf09b + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/07zb8ef48ez61.jpg?width=757&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb9a34bfdd38982c743e0bd757daee51cc135778 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/twa8x2x48ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=762a1b6b9191d23415efbd334dc580d37d183e2a + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/h0yc5wh58ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48901bb3df2b22bdaa467c9d9fafc3fa67c2eaaa + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/r9ac0o478ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f94e7f95a184398475cf389435482d4349967c1 + +https://preview.redd.it/ubwhq4l78ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd22f8b32fde34813116badd9bb582bf8702d8c1 + +https://preview.redd.it/tch1kga88ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da5f121150c9190ac8c92d56c98655f9866e686a + +https://preview.redd.it/ezcgozs88ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=db462dc909336d91ed3c59a02005edc95533047a + +https://preview.redd.it/stb6s3698ez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e5eb38aad6282b2f11e293d0a3e6d1c911b1d54 + +[ORDER OF APPOINTMENT P. 1](https://preview.redd.it/o7b11pa8cez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ea0dbdb7000ae86dceff3ecb48f0b42f447982e7) + +[ORDER OF APPOINTMENT P. 2](https://preview.redd.it/3btenxy8cez61.jpg?width=1700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8ccd51d1aed90b5416c463d798aa085eb32a511) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE) +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/former-fed-chair-janet-yellen-reportedly-biden-pick-for-treasury-secretary-201233279.html?.tsrc=fin-srch + +Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will serve as the 78th Treasury Secretary of the U.S., the Wall Street Journal reported Monday afternoon, citing people familiar with President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team. + +Yellen, 74, will have her work cut out for her, with the U.S. economy in the midst of the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression. But Yellen’s deep experience with macroeconomics, in addition to her familiarity with the inner workings of Washington, could prove to be useful tools as the Biden administration takes a swing at a fiscal response to the crisis. + +Yellen will be the first woman to hold the position, and only the second Fed chair to serve in the role (G. William Miller). +Good Evening Apes! + +Another weekend...another shitstorm of drama and wild speculation. + +I've been a bit busy this weekend getting ready to move, and I want to let you all know your @'s have not gone unseen. + +I don't feel that I can write about anything productive this week without first addressing my opinions on these two topics so we will start here and move into the analysis section. + +As always I will post a consolidated [Video DD of this on my YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) for those of you that don't have the time to read through this, or have visual impairments/reading comprehension issues. This will be uploaded by... + +9pm EDT/UTC-4 + +# Part I: Too many shares to stuff in my cellar... + +So I want to take a quick moment to discuss my opinions on the two big pieces of news to come out of this weekend. + +**Section 1: Cellar Boxing** + +I'm not sure when it became news to people that this was a strategy that was possibly being employed on GME but a large aspect of the main MOASS thesis has always been that they had excessively naked shorted GameStop in an attempt to drive them out of business. But I understand that this information isn't always the easiest to obtain, especially for newer apes. So here is why I think it's relevant and why it's not. + +Pros: + +* Cellar Boxing is a strategy employed by market makers that manipulates the bid/ask spread of a stock with prices lower than .001 +* This is likely what Melvin began doing in 2014 as evidenced here on long-term OBV + +[Long-Term OBV showing the original short position](https://preview.redd.it/8r48u73np4n71.png?width=2459&format=png&auto=webp&s=33272dd1166061e3ac7964aa1bbeba7640491aca) + +* This is one reason why we think that there is a massive naked short position on GME. I suspect there are additional factors, but, if GME had been brought down to the levels where this strategy would have been effective I'm sure it would have been employed. +* This is generally performed on stocks of micro-cap companies as it is not easy to do on companies like GameStop with larger floats and market caps. + +Cons: + +* GameStop never dropped to the the price levels that are needed to affect this specific type of manipulation +* This disregards the far more obvious manipulation occurring on GameStop vis-à-vis derivatives +* The SEC is well aware of this form of manipulation, which doesn't necessarily mean they will do anything about it... +* This was not the strategy used, at least initially, on Toys-R-Us, Sears, or Blockbuster. These businesses failed due to mismanagement and dying industries. Not every bear thesis is wrong, but GME was. + +I think the real focus for now around this needs to be the same things we were looking into already; + +Where and how is this massive naked short position held? + +How does this effect the short participants margin? + +What is the game plan for SHFs and MMs when this strategy goes south, as it obviously did on GME? + +&#x200B; + +**Section B: The Yahoo Anomaly** + +Last Friday Yahoo Finance began reporting a float on GME of 249.51M shares... + +Normally I would dismiss this as an error or glitch. + +However, + +There are several reasons I think this bears looking into and have been doing so with all my free time this weekend. + +* We know that yahoo gets it's reported float data from ICE and Morningstar +* We know CME's futures rollover date was on 9/9 and based on evidence found by my research team, this last week, it was concluded they had till 9/17 to complete that rollover. Even though traditionally any necessary covering has always been completed on that date. +* There is other data specific to GME being changed and/or misreported elsewhere. Fidelity showed an increase of 3.6 million available shares to borrow, the float size on WeBull changed from 9/9 to 9/10 as well. + +WeBull 9/9/21 float + +https://preview.redd.it/kric4x9115n71.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=21fffd221737d3f5c9cd67ced5ddf5ddefb38342 + +WeBull 9/10/21 Float + +[also note differences in Mkt Cap even thought the closing price was lower...decrease in P\/E, and change in outstanding shares is ≠ to change in free float. ](https://preview.redd.it/ukphuvf515n71.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=e94e33510961ba089fa90f376e8439d794546dff) + +Fidelity 9/10/21 Shares to borrow up from 1.03m the previous day + +[Fidelity shares. Listed as hard to borrow should mean they are not available institutionally.](https://preview.redd.it/ijjckugs15n71.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=59871714673d7b84021fc15cdf942be330434faa) + +While the discrepancies can occur after a share offering there wasn't one... + +I expect based on research I've been doing and discussions I've had in my discord and on stream that we are seeing one or more of these possibilities playing out. + +1. We are seeing the balance of shares held in this quarters futures contracts being displayed as part of the float. Since they were not rolled in time the position is now exposed. (This explains the large number of shares returned to Fidelity even though they sold the majority of their position in January) +2. They have been margin called and have not met net capital requirements causing their FTDs to be kicked out into the open market revealing the synthetic shorts as part of GME's actual float. +3. The switch from OATS to CAT at FINRA has revealed the synthetic short position because of it reveals proprietary orders, eliminates market making exemptions, and includes data from OTC equities and derivatives. +4. This is simply a data anomaly, only occurring on GME across multiple platforms at the same time...👀 right? + +[Pretty visible contrast in the rollover dates on the 1D](https://preview.redd.it/i1h4taub95n71.png?width=1584&format=png&auto=webp&s=5539c4c97180f68d087259417c01a7f444e966ff) + +*\*all of this is still theoretical but I wanted to offer insight to the community into what I think is the mostly likely scenario.* + +# Part II: Technical Analysis + +While this feels a bit pointless right now, because I expect any price action that occurs on GME in the **next seven trading days** to be related to factors outside of market psychology and technical analysis. There is at least one technical indicator playing out that I want to address. + +**The BARR (Bump and Run Reversal) pattern -** This occurs when excessive speculation occurs (bump), the price reached is unsustainable and corrects (run), a support is found (reversal). The price action can now retrace at a more sustainable levels with solid support. + +[BARR on GME 4hr indicating potential upside movement with stronger support. Drawn on the linear chart to correctly plot vertical movement. ](https://preview.redd.it/o7ifa22wg5n71.png?width=2455&format=png&auto=webp&s=71a29ce7b8f44935b70087e7c1cb01ecd4076b2a) + +This indicates we can see upside potential after a bounce on that solid bullish trend. + +Here is that reversal on the long term TA + +[Ascending Triangle on the 1D ](https://preview.redd.it/83eb57flh5n71.png?width=2457&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a7c1f70fa481fd0bae789f8e88cb429c480b74d) + +Technical oscillators actually look pretty bearish this week but I expect that futures roll-over will ultimately make their signals irrelevant this week. + +**MACD** + +MACD is signaling bearish divergence but there is still a ton of unrealized range to the upside. For this cycle. This divergence is mostly due to the shorting after earnings and could be a false signal. + +[MACD 1D Timescale](https://preview.redd.it/7mz8fob8i5n71.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2cc87ff829435379ae697c10e817260d5f994e0) + +**Stochastic RSI** + +Signaling overbought but still shows potential for a second peak based on the previous cycle. I think this actually indicates that the rest of the covering for this cycle has yet to be completed. + +[StochRSI 1D ](https://preview.redd.it/xbphru12j5n71.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ff5c0467ececbb54b25febb3d2b6fbce26931db) + +**Futures Theory:** + +I still expect whatever covering had to be done this quarter due to futures rollover has yet to be completed as the run on **8/24 was the quarterly options rollover** as I have previously discussed. Based on data from earlier cycles there is still an additional \~190M (estimate) volume that needs to be traded. + +My current thesis is that that SHFs or MMs have till the September 17th to trade this volume. + +If this does not happen this week, either... + +* My theory is wrong and futures are not being used to hide FTDs from the original (pre-2021) short position +* They got enough shares from institutions and GME's ATM offering this cycle to cover what need to be covered. +* They do not intend to cover and will allow the contract to expire leading to covering the entire contract/s by T+2 from the September 17th which is September 22nd. + +\**Please remember as we understand it now these contracts do not represent the entire short/FTD position on GME. It is my current belief that the short position is split across several separate quarterly futures contracts and other derivatives. This is only a* ***theory*** *at this point and is not a recommendation to attempt to trade or profit off this action as there is still little proof as to it's reliability.* + +# Part IV: The Market + +The SPY has dropped through it's 20EMA signaling at least the potential for a correction, a dip below the 50MA or 60 EMA would be a confirmation of that correction and a fall below the 200MA on this chart would indicate a serious sell off leading to a potential crash. The SPY has had several straight days of bearish divergence which is an unusual anomaly to say the least. Normally I would discuss all the things affect the market this week but let's be honest this thing has been fucked for a while and it could finally be signaling an end of what has been a pretty exuberant bull run. I will be watching the market closely this week as I feel that this could be a potential catalyst for MOASS. + +[SPY reference for this week on the 1D](https://preview.redd.it/3fk23497n5n71.png?width=1587&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae6282e2feeabd0e2f2560adaa5fd496f77214c2) + +**An important note:** + +**If a market crash occurs before MOASS, we could see massive institutional selling on GME before a turnaround be prepared to hold fast, as the dip could be quite extreme (*****while negative beta could mean we turn around before other equities it is not indicative of future price movement*****). Possibly the largest dip buy opportunity since February. This could be the truest test of diamond hands, I know some of you weren't around for the January or March dips, the fear of watching your account balance bleed away can be difficult for even the most experienced market participants. But as long as you remember the shorts haven't covered and trust your research and the DD it should be an interesting ride.** + +**HODL ✋💎🤚** + +# Part IV: Conclusion + +With strange anomalies occurring with GameStop's data this week and the lack of expected volume from the futures rollover we were already looking forward to an interesting week. This, coupled with the insanely wide bid/ask spread and **massive gamma ramp** on the 17th, that allows for violent upside potential, really puts us in a very likely scenario for a short squeeze, if the expected volume comes flooding in. + +Pile the potential for at least a market correction on top of this and we are really cooking with some gas. + +Whatever happens this week. I will be on the edge of my seat the whole time. 0\^-< (tits jackked) + +&#x200B; + +If you want to see more information on this subject matter feel free to join me in the : + +Daily Live charting (always under my profile [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)) from 8:45am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +on my [YouTube Live Stream](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) from 9am - 4pm EDT on trading days\* + +or check out the [Discord](https://discord.gg/BGmjnrvHnw) for more stuff with fellow apes + +**As always thanks for following along.** + +🦍❤️ + +\- Gherkinit + +&#x200B; + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500. :)* + +*\*My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +\* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/) +I currently have $100 in my bank account and I get paid on Thanksgiving. My fridge and gas tank is full and my bills are paid. This is the first paycheck I didn't run out of money and have to use a credit card to get groceries, I even put money towards the credit card and put some money into savings. By this time next year, I will have a job that pays $41,000 a year. I don't have much, but at least I'm not digging myself further down now. +edit: I’m getting so many notifications, i hate that I can’t get to you all! Thank you guys so much for taking the time to give me your advice and encouragement! I felt motivated already to do this, but you guys burned another fire in me to get this done. Thank you guys again! + +I currently have a car loan,5 year 11 percent interest rate with about 12,000 left on it that I signed off on in April. I also am about 6K in the debt from student loans. + +I currently live with my mom and one of my next goals was getting my first place. + +But then I saw a video about 401ks… I saw how much I needed to save and then I realized… I can’t possibly save for my future if I’m in so much debt. + +My currently salary is about 39K, and my new job I’m starting puts me at 50, with an increase to 70 in my 6th year and unlimited overtime for the most part. + +So while I’m still with my mom, I figured I’d go insane with OT to clear my debt instead of saving 15K for my first apartment my first year at my new job. + +Any advice? am I doing things wrong? do I have the right mindset but wrong execution? Let me know! +The MSM are straight up lying to our faces. You only have to look at the buy / sell ratio at Fidelity to know that retail isn't selling shit. + +I now live by a simple rule, every time I see a "Forget Gamestop" FUD article by the Motley Fooks I buy 1 more GME regardless of the current price. It's my way of giving a middle finger to these fuckwits before their lies are laid bare for the world to see. + +We're not fucking leaving. +Of course it will depend on one's personality, the nature of the company, colleagues, commute time, industry trends, world events etc but generally speaking which jobs are easy - even mind numbing - and relatively stress free whilst still paying enough that you can stay afloat and maybe splurge or save a bit. + +I just can't seem to compartmentalize, so a job where I have stress hanging over me like a dangling sword on my weekends or in free time is going to lead me to a dark head space quickly... and I have an immune condition that gets flared up and makes me sick when I get highly stressed, so I've had to cross a lot of possible pathways off my list and now I'm set on minimizing stress. + +Call me lazy, entitled, whatever, I don't give a shit about being a high achiever and leaving behind some legacy I won't even be around to relish, I just want to be able to pay the bills and afford to hang with friends and my girl, read, write music, go to the beach etc. My old man is a senior executive and spends his Sunday responding to emails and taking international calls at 4am..I would rather go test gravity from my balcony. + +But obviously just to stay afloat one needs a decent paying job let alone to afford any comforts. + +So has anyone got any ideas? + +&#x200B; + +Edit: + +Thanks for all the suggestions (even though some of them require 5 years of study lol) also I'd like to open it up to include any jobs that are low stress and average/decent paying, or at least enough to get by on +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l1tjkk9wo5771.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=5abe3b783fd4fa61df6cbc11a0557a31a0cfbace + +Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lyokpd9yo5771.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1812b5ea6620e57f30773eb56e7dfc9a2a114d4 + +And another ATH reverse repo + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p6v0g271p5771.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=acb911692d2169955ed2c52bbbe68d49e72fa295 + +at this rate we'll see 1 trillion before end of week. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5e0vvk65p5771.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c5509772562e25ae65f0c2ced12712686bdd70a + +The exponential floor by u/jth1 as he stated "Floor Guy's Log, Stonkdate 266. Still waiting to see a new pattern forming. Keeping on trucking" there was a theory on it being delayed another 18 days due to the ATM share offering but it's to early to make any statement or see a new pattern emerging. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/i8mdkxenp5771.png?width=452&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fe33f6a8be071ac74ebe048a233493b0848c615 + +# RC tweeted again + +this is from the episode "Behind the blow" + +just before this scene stan complains about it being another rerun, this can be in reference to the market doing the exact same thing now as we've seen before, the hedgies doing something again like usual or.... T+21 because his tweets are spaced 21 days apart. + +That spacing of 21 days is.. interesting but not conclusive of anything, but interesting nonetheless. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/f3hfgelts5771.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ddb78964420aad1e3c5d1f5a5c903f76e124b10 + +The water temple is hard as balls in OOT and a gamers test of patience, may be referring that, or the market being "under water" or could just be a coincidence for all we know. + +&#x200B; + +[credit to u\/bloodshot\_blinkers ](https://preview.redd.it/pwuekdn9u5771.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=a56c48e14b580dd94f5d2a668f5e24c3e9ab5d65) + +# 002 + +Today is the day! + +Today the 002 is going into effect, again... + +This wont mean it gets implemented this morning or the afternoon it could even be in the AH + +as Mac loves to say "today could be the best day in our lives, or just another regular day" + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2uc4tj0rq5771.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f753ccc9014f69125676fdf1a15db3ce1167f44f + +# Margin Breach + +[https://www.dtcc.com/legal/policy-and-compliance](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/policy-and-compliance) + +Specifically, CPMI IOSCO Quantitative Disclosure Results 2021 Q1: + +[https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/CPMI\_IOSCO\_Quantitative\_Disclosure\_Results\_2021\_Q1\_1.pdf](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/policy-and-compliance/CPMI_IOSCO_Quantitative_Disclosure_Results_2021_Q1_1.pdf) + +On page six, they have hte following statement about the NSCC margin breach: + +>National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)At the end of the first quarter of 2021, NSCC’s 12-month backtesting coverage level was 99.7%, with the 1-month coverage ratio for January at 98.8%, 99.9% forFebruary, and 99.5% for March. The median backtesting deficiency for the quarter was $3.3 million, which included a maximum backtesting deficiency incurred onJanuary 22, 2021, for **$1.06 billion**. ***The largest deficiency incurred during the quarter was mainly driven by a single security exhibiting idiosyncratic risk*** + +**I just wonder what "single security" caused that risk 🤔** + +Also what people should know there is a big difference between a "margin call" and a "margin breach", no one got margin called about GME up to now. + +&#x200B; + +[credit to u\/bloodshot\_blinkers](https://preview.redd.it/dzf7piuns5771.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f16fddab9554fa9cae92a9186b49baab945d0fb0) + +# Citadel is not suing + +Yesterday u/broccaaa posted a thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o6cgkt/citadel_makes_formal_complaint_about_the_lucy/) (now deleted) + +there was a problem about lucy being sued or not, well lets add clarity to it + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/chzv5ynwr5771.png?width=451&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f29c04d3555fcba8ec512dfe8901d21be4b32b1 + +they didn't sue her, u/broccaaa didn't mean to spread BS/fud but it was a unfortunate phrasing on his part, but the gist of it stays the same, he was right Citadel did complain, this means they are paying attention. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ofqe638du5771.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=65d8785b622008c79c57c754a77d186f9f3d3ece + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zrvionbfu5771.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=21d666ae30a661e8aaabb6ddb837e60a942b9f07 + +remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) + +[https://twitter.com/u\_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) + +[https://twitter.com/BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) + +&#x200B; + +Edit: +Surprise! We're doing another #MonkeyBusiness panel discussion on #SuperstonkLive + +TODAY @ 5:00 p.m. EST + +Watch: [https://youtu.be/52JbzEuYb8A](https://youtu.be/52JbzEuYb8A) + +Today's session is hosted by u/sharkbaitlol with various apes as guests, including u/ButtFarm69 , u/broccaaa, and more! +Hi reddit, + +So my partner and me are living quite a normal life, no debt, having our own apartment (mortgage), no car, mid-lvl hospital insurance and \~30 grand in saving. + +&#x200B; + +We've been having chats about having a baby, stopped contraception and then she's got laid off her work during covid (in April). Things were going ok on my paycheck (I'm at senior specialist payout) with us having just enough money to live, but not enough to save anymore. + +&#x200B; + +Fast-forward to last week when she did a pregnancy test and found she's pregnant. Basically, that means she'll be off from work for next 1,5 years, and this thought hit me like a tonne of bricks, and I am really worried about our financial future. + +&#x200B; + +My career is built around data analysis, which I started to resolve some visa problems. I've been considering to pivot my career, but now I believe I'd stick to that for a bit. + +&#x200B; + +I've started considering a few options: + +1) Try to find a side-gig. Spend time outside of work supporting her + freelancing for an extra buck; + +&#x200B; + +2) Keep up the great work in the office and try to score a promotion within the next year. Spend time outside of work to focus on work projects, and spend as much time supporting her when I'm not in the office; + +&#x200B; + +3) Invest time outside of work into side-business that could turn out into something bringing profits and will involve both of us. + +&#x200B; + +I understand that if I would focus on a freelance, I might miss out on a healthy relationship with my missus, and if this continues when the baby arrives, I will be spending too much time focusing on freelance and will miss important time with the baby. + +&#x200B; + +To be honest, I am feeling anxious AF. No parents there with any money to support us (I am sending money to my mom actually), and just hazy future ahead. What is my best way to move forward? +Hey guys, + + This post is going to be a summary of some of the harder-to-accept truths that beginners, or anyone wanting to go full time, will need to hear. I will also do my best to include my advice for solving these problems, or correcting them as much as possible. + + So here goes: + +1. YOU WILL HAVE BAD DAYS! + Especially at the beginning, or when you become the most confident. Both of these are typical stages when a person decides to overleverage or overtrade, which can lead to large losses. Trusting in your win rate, and saying stuff like "well, I lost 4 trades already, and I've never lost more than 6 in a row before", may be the exact reason you do lose more. My advice here is to research Martingale Theory, the idea that you can win by doubling down after every loss. This works... Until it doesn't. That's when you will fail big. + Also, it's entirely possible that you have a bad trading day for no reason at all. This just happens. Take the day off, or the week, and get back into it when you have your mind right again. The market will still be there. + +2. RETAIL TRADING IS LONELY! +Unless you happen to have all your friends interested in trading too, then chances are you are going it alone. This can be very tough, especially on your mental and emotional wellbeing. What is money worth if you have no one to share your success with? For me, and what I would recommend for everyone else, what worked was to join online groups. (I promise I'm not a shill hahaha), but in particular Discord worked best, due to its ability to facilitate real time discussion and information sharing. But reddit is good too, if you have the right community. Others may be good, but I tend to find are only promoted by spammers and scammers. Make sure to do your dd on any trading groups you are asked to join, as many are pump and dump groups too. + +3. IT WILL PHYSICALLY DETERIORATE YOU! + Think about it. You are going to be working from your computer or whatever setup you have, for maybe 6, maybe 8, maybe even more hours per day. And for 99% of us, that means sitting that long too. Standing desks may be the better choice but they can get uncomfortable fast. My advice is to join a gym, or go for a walk/jog/run or do any sort of exercise at all, at least once a day, and at least 5 days a week. Part of this includes eating healthy as well. It's too easy to sit down and drink fizzy drinks and eat whatever the hell you feel like, just because. But that will cause an early death, which is something no one wants. + +4. IT IS MENTALLY TAXING! + Anyone who traded/"invested in" GME knows how stressful it was. Massive rises followed by massive drops. Constant eyes on the chart, making and losing more money than you've ever done before. Holding your piss for hours just to see the giant green candles put your account into the big money. These are exceptional circumstances, but they are becoming more and more frequent these days. And if you have ever listened to talks by anyone who traded the dot com bubble, or the great financial crash, you will know that a high percentage of daytrader end up with heart problems. Many people I know of, take all sorts of (legal) drugs to get them through their days. Make sure to get a healthy 8 hours of sleep if possible, and don't ever trade multiple days in a row if they become too taxing. A day off won't kill you, another day of adrenaline might. + +5. IT CAN ALSO BE BORING! + When you trade the same instrument with the same system and make the same money every day, it gets boring. Now, I'm by no means a millionaire myself, and I would never complain about being bored if I was, but when you are somewhere between finally achieving consistency and trying to scale up your account, that's when boredom hits. You know what to do and how to do it. But the goal is still far off, and there's no way you can accelerate the process without ruining your progress so far. My advice is to have another hobby, and to do this on the side on those slightly more boring days. Another hobby is good to have whether or not you ever get bored anyway! + +So theres my 5 truths for today. I may share more if there is interest in it, and I welcome any and all feedback. + + Many thanks, + NathMcLovin! +This question is inspired by this news article: [Elon Musk seeks 10% job cuts at Tesla over ‘super bad feeling’ about economy](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jun/03/elon-musk-job-cuts-tesla-super-bad-feeling-economy-hiring-freeze) + +Is this just overblown, considering [how much Tesla staff numbers grew in previous years](https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/)? Is this merely a sign of problems at Tesla and not with the economy as a whole? Is Musk merely doing this to create negative publicity and drive certain prices down for his own advantage? + +Or do economists agree with Musk that the economy is about to go really bad? + + +🚀💣 🔥**Yeetin out of orbit** 💰 💵 🚀 + +We are YeetToken, a community-driven project that focuses on transparency and community contribution. We are very active in voice chat and encourage curiosity. Recently we released our whitepaper regarding our first use-case, [YeetPixels](https://pdfhost.io/v/fngyMfWlu_YeetPixels_White_Paperpdf.pdf). +After community feedback, we've established an official YeetToken Donation Wallet to support marketing and design efforts. Every month, we will take a percentage and donate to a charity/cause of the community's choice. + +🔅INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE🔅 + +* Ownership Fully Renounced with Active Live Dev Chat! +* Community Teams with Leads in Each Department! +* Marketing and Budget for Promotions! +* Use-case Actually Involves the Community! + +🔅TOKENOMICS🔅 + +* 50% Pre-burn, 4% Back to LP, 2% Back to Holders, 1% Burn +* No Dev Wallets +* Use-Case Whitepaper, [YeetPixels](https://pdfhost.io/v/fngyMfWlu_YeetPixels_White_Paperpdf.pdf) +* 16K+ Holders +* 1.8 Million Market cap + +Always 600-1400+ online. +Socials:👨💬👩💬👧💬👦 +Telegram (5800+): [https://t.me/YeetTokenOfficial](https://t.me/YeetTokenOfficial) +[https://discord.gg/CEQEsE3c](https://discord.gg/CEQEsE3c) +[https://www.reddit.com/r/YeetTokenOfficial/](https://www.reddit.com/r/YeetTokenOfficial/) +[https://twitter.com/yeettoken\_hq](https://twitter.com/yeettoken_hq) +[https://www.instagram.com/yeettoken/](https://www.instagram.com/yeettoken/) + +**Website:** [**https://YeetToken.com**](https://yeettoken.com/) +**YeetToken Donation Wallet (ETH/BNB): 0xCcbbAB37F67d39A469b7c5ea89328449a3d07128** +**YeetToken: 0x7060d3f1cc70a07f4768560b9d9b692ac29244de make sure you’re using this address when buying** +More information and source here: + +https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/24/580324251/bank-of-america-ends-free-checking-option-a-bastion-for-low-income-customers + +There are plenty of good, free options out there, see the wiki here: https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/banks_and_credit_unions + +Look for no minimums, free checks, ATM refunds, no transfer fees, a good website and interface, and FDIC protection of course +Hi all - I'm a first home buyer and we're about to go unconditional on a house. It's a grim questions but I'm someone who likes to know worse case scenarios, even if they're unlikely... What happens if something really dramatic happens and you can no longer pay your mortgage? Like, do the banks give you a few months to sort your s\*\*\* out if it's really bad? Do you go bankrupt? Does the bank swoop in and list it at auction and you just get told to get out, good luck, start from 0? Or do you still have the debt AND no house? (We've taken out very good insurance in case of major illness/injury or death, but still). I've been up since 3am worried as this is the biggest commitment I've ever made and I'm freaking out a little bit. We're long time renters who saved for 10 years to buy so I guess that adds to the stress. Nearly all our mates got parent handouts from their deposits 5-7 years ago (not bitter, good for them!) but I feel like we're extra worried because we had to watch the dollars climb to get there. I guess I just want to get a really good understanding of the worst possible scenario. We have two toddlers if that makes any difference, it definitely adds to the worry haha. Thank you in advance :) +MIT has uploaded this course for free and is a really great resource for anyone interested in learning more. It’s even good if you have a solid understanding of the blockchain. I really recommend you check it out! + +https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video-lectures/ + + +I’ve only gotten through the first few videos but I’ve already learned a lot. The first lecture is great to show people who are just dipping their toes in the water (if they don’t fall asleep from lectures). + +Cheers! +>#Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks. 2009 + + + +The coronavirus shutdown is hammering supply and demand across the globe. That has forced the real economy into a sharp recession and triggered a rolling financial crisis. Below is a primer on one key piece of this mess: the crisis in corporate debt markets. This branch of finance is vitally important because even healthy companies often need access to credit. If they do not get it, they go under. + +In 2008, the vector of crisis ran from mortgage-backed securities to the rest of the financial sector and then to the real economy. This time, the real economy is being hit directly, and the damage is reverberating back into financial markets. The failing markets, in feedback-loop fashion, further threaten the real economy as corporations find it harder to borrow. As the corporate debt markets sour, major companies will go bankrupt. Unemployment is skyrocketing. Some analysts expect the economy to contract by an annualized rate of 30 percent during the second quarter of 2020. + +Already, US financial markets are on public life support. The Federal Reserve has committed to unlimited purchases of all sorts of assets: US Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, car loans, municipal debts, and, in a historic step, both short term and long-term corporate debt. But the crisis will require more than a financial rescue. + +The key political question now is: What sort of controls will come with the state intervention? Corporate greed and self-dealing need to be checked not merely in the name of fairness but also to make sure public bailout money is actually invested in the real economy rather than just gambled away, as it was after the 2008 crash and rescue. + +###The Rise of Corporate Debt + +Since 2008, household debt levels have actually declined and are now lower than they were going into the last crash. But not corporate debt. Measured as a firm’s “net debt” compared to its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization), corporate debt has doubled since the last crash. In 2009, the average American company owed $2 of debt for every $1 in earnings. Today, the average firm carries net debt to EBITDA of 3 to 1, and many firms — like Ford Motor, CarMax, Harley-Davidson, and General Motors — carry ratios ranging from 8 to 1, to as high as 15 to 1. Boeing, a special case because of its 737 MAX crisis, carries a ratio of 37 to 1. + +Over the last two decades, corporate America’s credit rating has collapsed. In the early ’90s, more than sixty companies held AAA credit ratings. Today, only two US firms are AAA rated: Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft. In 2001, fewer than one in five “investment-grade” firms were rated BBB. Today half of all investment-grade corporate debt belongs to firms rated “triple-B” (BBB) or lower. A third of those firms are rated triple-B minus (BBB-), one notch away from speculative or “junk” status. + +Already many triple-B-rated corporate bonds are trading on secondary markets at unusually low prices and high yields, often above 5 percent; that means even “investment grade” bonds are being treated as junk. Soon many triple-B-rated corporations will be formally downgraded to junk. That will drive up their borrowing costs and restrict their access to credit. Even healthy companies often need access to ready credit. If they do not get it, they go under. + +The rating agency Moody’s estimates the default rate for “speculative-grade” debt — companies with ratings lower than Baa from Moody’s Investors Service, or a rating lower than BBB from Standard & Poor’s — might reach 10 percent this year, up from 2.3 percent last year. The consequences of all this will reverberate throughout the wider economy, deepening and extending the recession. + +Total global corporate debt, including bonds and loans, is approximately $66 trillion; more than double what it was a decade ago. For comparison, the combined gross national product of all economies was estimated at $80.27 trillion in 2017. About a quarter of that is the US economy. + +###What They Did With the Money + +After the 2008 crash, the world’s central banks, with the US Federal Reserve in the lead, spent the next decade pushing money into the financial markets by way of super-low interest rates and the direct public purchase of financial assets from the private sector via quantitative easing (QE). + +The cheap credit encouraged lots of corporate borrowing in the form of loans from banks and massive issuance of corporate bonds. Unlike loans, which can be routinely extended, or sometimes abruptly terminated, or have interest rates that float up and down, corporate bonds are debt instruments issued by a company committing to repay borrowed money on a specified schedule at a specified, usually fixed, rate of interest. + +Corporations have been borrowing for a variety of reasons that range from shrewd arbitrage to stupid and reckless asset stripping. For a struggling and unprofitable company, for example JCPenney, debt can be a lifeline. For a profitable firm, borrowing money can be a way to raise capital without diluting existing shareholders’ claim on the company’s profits, which would happen if the firm issued stock. + +Even some profitable firms with piles of cash borrowed rather than spend their cash, in part for the firepower effect: letting other competitors and market entrants know that the firm has enough money on hand to buy out any threatening start-ups, and showing the world the firm is ready to ride out any economic crisis. + +Some firms used their borrowed money to buy other firms. This helped fuel a post-2008 wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Deloitte reported “more than $10 trillion in [M&A] domestic transactions since 2013.” Targeted companies borrowed to stockpile cash as a defense against such takeovers. + +Firms also borrowed to fund CEO compensation, distributions to investors via dividends, and stock buybacks. Companies buy back their own stock so as to boost its price. A rising stock price is useful in many ways: it can keep away hostile raiders by making a targeted company too expensive to take over, but it can also draw in friendly suitors because (with some creative accounting) a rising stock value can make a weak firm appear more profitable. Corporate executives like a rising stock price because compensation packages are both tied to stock performance and almost always include some payment in company stock, so the higher the stock price, the higher the executives’ payout. + +Sometimes, firms even invested their borrowed money in actual production. The capital-intensive oil and gas industry did that, but as we explain below, it still faces a crisis, perhaps more salient than other sectors. + +###Bad Credit as Perverse Incentive + +The end result of all the borrowing was declining corporate credit-worthiness: corporate debt soon badly outpaced their earnings growth and cash balances. This led to widespread credit-rating downgrades. + +Perversely, lower credit ratings did not slow the borrowing binge, but rather spurred on further lending and borrowing, because as corporate credit ratings slipped, the interest rate that the downgraded firms had to pay on their loans and bonds increased. And, thus, so too did the lenders’ profits. + +Corporate debt and stock prices entered into a twisted dialectic, each driving the other. As the stock market continued to inflate over the last decade, it provided the confidence investors required to continue their purchases of risky corporate bonds. + +Keep in mind that many of the lending banks and asset funds were actually or essentially borrowing from Uncle Sam at inflation-adjusted rates close to zero, then lending to companies with triple-B and triple-B minus ratings at 5 percent interest. Profits like that meant there were always banks and asset funds eager to lend to debt-burdened corporations. + +Investors could directly purchase specific corporations’ bonds, or, as is more often the case, invest in mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that target an array of corporate bonds. High-risk loans were also sliced and diced and repackaged into bundles called “collateralized loan obligations” (CLOs), a class of securities backed by an underlying portfolio of corporate loans. + +According to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the majority of American CLOs are held by US institutional investors, including insurance companies, mutual funds, and depository institutions. This means that when the debt is unable to be serviced, the pain will be absorbed within the US economy, much of it by the unassuming customers of these financial behemoths. + +As was the case with the mortgage-backed securities of the 2008 crash, these funds helped “distribute risk” and thus gave an appearance of safety. The logic was that owning 1 percent of a hundred different loans would be safer, even if some loans went bad, than owning the entirety of a single debt security. The logic is not entirely wrong. And that is part of the problem: it encouraged yet more lending. As long as the economic forecast was optimistic, there was no reason for the debt spree to let up. + +###Zombies and Others + +Corporate debt, like much of the economy, is a story of disparities. Not every corporation is burdened by debt. Some firms are actually awash in cash. Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet Inc, and Apple each sit on more than $100 billion in cash. As a whole, corporate America has been sitting on record amounts of cash in recent years. But at the same time, Morgan Stanley Investment Management estimates that one in six US companies cannot cover even the interest payments on their debts. + +At the heart of the problem are “leveraged loans” and so-called zombie firms. Leveraged loans are a type of expensive, high-risk credit extended to already heavily indebted companies. Since the 2008 crash, the leveraged loan market has doubled to $1.2 trillion. Now, leveraged loans in the United States are being re-sold at only 84 cents on the dollar, their lowest price since August 2009. The majority of leveraged loans — more than half — are in the form of the aforementioned CLOs. In the fourth quarter of 2018, there were $617 billion of CLOs outstanding. + +Zombie firms are defined by the Bank for International Settlements as heavily indebted, well-established companies that have failed to be profitable over an extended period and have low expected profitability in the future. In other words, heavily indebted start-ups do not qualify as zombies. The most threatened sectors are energy, automotive, insurance, capital goods (meaning equipment and machinery), telecoms, aerospace and defense, and some parts of retail. + +The bull market of rising, often overvalued, stock prices allowed many uncompetitive and unprofitable companies to appear healthy based solely on their stock’s performance. Even before the markets started to crash on March 9, some analysts were prescient enough to call the market’s bluff at the beginning of the year. + +But in this rapidly developing crisis, firms all across the economy may soon find it impossible to meet their liabilities. With the coronavirus breaking supply chains and forcing massive constrictions in consumer demand, corporate earnings are contracting fast, which in turn will badly hurt corporate debt servicing. + +Like a hypertrophied organ rupturing, the putrefaction of unsustainable corporate debt now threatens to create a generalized economic sepsis that will hurt even healthy firms. + +###Profiles in Debt + +Airlines. The top six major US airlines spent enormous sums to buy back their stock over the last decade. US airlines (as a whole) spent 96 percent of their borrowed money on buying back stock. Now, revenue from flights is plummeting. United Airlines’ bookings have fallen by 70 percent. Back in 2011, American Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with $29 billion in liabilities; today, they have over $34 billion in debt. Yields on some of their bonds reached a whopping 12 percent, a particularly distressing sign as interest rates have been slashed by the Fed in an effort to relieve credit markets. + +Energy. Even before the effects of coronavirus eviscerated demand for fossil fuels, US energy companies were suffering due to high fixed costs and low energy prices. In the last five years, 208 US energy companies have declared bankruptcy. Energy prices have been pushed down by the fracking revolution, the rise of renewable energy, and oil overproduction due to struggles between large producers like Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States. + +Now the coronavirus shock is pushing firms over the edge. Occidental Petroleum — which has $40 billion in debt, while its market value (the value of all of its stocks combined) is less than $11 billion — recently had its debt downgraded to junk. + +Energy mutual funds reveal the crisis in the energy sector as a whole. Vanguard Energy Fund, considered one of the top four oil mutual funds, has lost over 41 percent of its value since the beginning of the year. Of course, the biggest oil companies, the “Oil Majors” (such as BP, Exxon Mobil, and Royal Dutch Shell) have enough resources, market power, and government support to survive the crisis. But the effects on the less established firms stretch beyond the energy industry itself. + +Lenders. As the oil and gas firms go into crisis, the banks that extended them credit may also face defaults. Loans outstanding to the petroleum sector from regional banks in North America exceed $100 billion. Banks financing oil companies in Texas and Oklahoma saw their share prices drop nearly 30 percent. In oil-dependent states, public budgets will hurt as tax revenues decline sharply. + +Retail. A number of important retailers carry net debt to EBITDA ratios that are too high to be sustainable under current conditions. For example, Rite Aid owes $15.80 for every dollar it earns. For JCPenney, the ratio is $8.30 to $1; for Walgreens Boots Alliance, it is $5.80 to $1. Office Depot owes $4.60 compared to every dollar earned. + +###Beyond Bailout + +Bailing out distressed companies, even taking them under public ownership for a while, may staunch the bleeding. And the bubble can eventually be reinflated with enough effort. But a replay of the 2008 bailout, which involved lots of public money but very little public regulation and planning, will only mean a long slump followed by a bubble for the rich. + +The American economy is a sick beast. It needs not only government handouts and ownership — which it is getting — it also needs planning. + +Oil, airlines, and cruise ships — these are high-emission industries that, in the face of climate crisis, must be radically transformed or cease to exist. With government ownership and planning, these industries could be unwound and their resources redeployed. + +Although COVID-19 set off our current recession, it was the indulgence of the 1 percent built into the 2008 rescue that is responsible for the depth and severity of our current economic crisis. Without guidance, money was poured into the financial system. Not surprisingly, it blossomed alongside the mutually reinforcing dynamic of artificially inflated stock prices and ballooning corporate debt. + +Capitulation to the gluttony of financiers is deeply unjust. But it is also unworkable in purely technical terms. Without constraints on greed, there will be another bubble and crash and a longer slump, more suffering, greater inequality, and more social instability. We have to force government to use its legal and financial power to steer the American economy toward more egalitarian, socially rational, and environmentally sustainable purposes. We have to make this bailout work for the majority of us. + +#Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You + + +The U.S. government is enacting measures to save the airlines, Boeing, and similarly affected corporations. While we clearly insist that these companies must be saved, there may be ethical, economic, and structural problems associated with the details of the execution. As a matter of fact, if you study the history of bailouts, there will be. + + + +The bailouts of 2008–9 saved the banks (but mostly the bankers), thanks to the execution by then-treasury secretary Timothy Geithner who fought for bank executives against both Congress and some other members of the Obama administration. Bankers who lost more money than ever earned in the history of banking, received the largest bonus pool in the history of banking less than two years later, in 2010. And, suspiciously, only a few years later, Geithner received a highly paid position in the finance industry. + +That was a blatant case of corporate socialism and a reward to an industry whose managers are stopped out by the taxpayer. The asymmetry (moral hazard) and what we call optionality for the bankers can be expressed as follows: heads and the bankers win, tails and the taxpayer loses. Furthermore, this does not count the policy of quantitative easing that went to inflate asset values and increased inequality by benefiting the super rich. Remember that bailouts come with printed money, which effectively deflate the wages of the middle class in relation to asset values such as +ultra-luxury apartments in New York City. + +The Generalized Bob Rubin Trade: Keep the profits, transfer losses to taxpayers. Named after Bob Rubin who pocketed 120 million dollars from Citi but claimed uncertainty and kept past bonuses. This encourages anyone to never be insured for such eventualities since the government will pick up the tab. + +####If It’s Bailed Out, It’s a Utility + +First, we must not conflate airlines as a physical company with the financial structure involved. Nor should we conflate the fate of the employees of the airlines with the unemployment of our fellow citizens, which can be directly compensated rather than indirectly via leftovers of corporate subsidies. We should learn from the Geithner episode that bailing out individuals based on their needs is not the same as bailing out corporations based on our need for them. + +Saving an airline, therefore, should not equate to subsidizing their shareholders and highly compensated managers and promote additional moral hazard in society. For the very fact that we are saving airlines indicates their role as utility. And if as such they are necessary for society, then why do their managers have optionality? Are civil servants on a bonus scheme? The same argument must also be made, by extension, against indirectly bailing out the pools of capital, like hedge funds and endless investment strategies, that are so exposed to these assets; they have no honest risk mitigation strategy, other than a trained naïve reliance on bailouts or what’s called in the industry the “government put”. + +Second, these corporations are lobbying for bailouts, which they will eventually get thanks to the pressure they can exert on the government via lobby units. But how about the small corner restaurant ? The independent tour guide ? The personal trainer? The massage professional? The barber? The hotdog vendor living from tourists near the Met Museum ? These groups cannot afford lobbyists and will be ignored. + +####Buffers Not Debt + +Third, as we have been warning since 2006, companies need buffers to face uncertainty –not debt (an inverse buffer), but buffers. Mother nature gave us two kidneys when we only need about a portion of a single one. Why? Because of contingency. We do not need to predict specific adverse events to know that a buffer is a must. Which brings us to the buyback problem. Why should we spend taxpayer money to bailout companies who spent their cash (and often even borrowed to generate that cash) to buy their own stock (so the CEO gets optionality), instead of building a rainy day buffer? Such bailouts punish those who acted conservatively and harms them in the long run, favoring the fool and the rent-seeker. + +####Not a Black Swan + +Furthermore, some people claim that the pandemic is a “Black Swan”, hence something unexpected so not planning for it is excusable. The book they commonly cite is The Black Swan. Had they read that book, they would have known that such a global pandemic is explicitly presented there as a white swan: something that would eventually take place with great certainty. Such acute pandemic is unavoidable, the result of the structure of the modern world; and its economic consequences would be compounded because of the increased connectivity and overoptimization. As a matter of fact, the government of Singapore, whom we advised in the past, was prepared for such an eventuality with a precise plan since as early as 2010. + + +#........................................................................... + +^^>Section ^^4009. ^^Temporary ^^Government ^^in ^^the ^^Sunshine ^^Act ^^Relief. +^^Temporarily ^^permits ^^the ^^Board ^^of ^^Governors ^^of ^^the ^^Federal ^^Reserve ^^Federal ^^Reserve ^^to ^^conduct +^^meetings ^^without ^^regards ^^to ^^the ^^Government ^^in ^^the ^^Sunshine ^^Act, ^^which ^^institutes ^^certain +^^requirements ^^for ^^meetings ^^that ^^may ^^be ^^impracticable ^^to ^^carry ^^out ^^under ^^certain ^^unusual ^^and +^^exigent ^^circumstances, ^^such ^^as ^^those ^^related ^^to ^^the ^^coronavirus ^^outbreak, ^^if ^^the ^^Chairman +^^determines, ^^in ^^writing, ^^that ^^such ^^circumstances ^^exist. ^^The ^^Federal ^^Reserve ^^is ^^still ^^required ^^to ^^keep +^^a ^^record ^^of ^^all ^^votes ^^and ^^the ^^reason ^^for ^^votes ^^during ^^this ^^time. ^^This ^^authority ^^expires ^^at ^^the ^^earlier +^^of ^^December ^^31, ^^2020, ^^or ^^the ^^date ^^on ^^which ^^the ^^national ^^emergency ^^declaration ^^related ^^to +^^coronavirus ^^is ^^terminated. ^^https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Title%20IV_Section%20by%20Section.pdf + +^[This.is.your.brain.on.central.banking,regulatory.capture,and.financialization.](https://medium.com/@allenfarrington/this-is-not-capitalism-5ed0a9d5dfa9) + +#........................................................................... + +2020 [Dow Futures Reverse Gains Despite Trump’s $6 Trillion Fiscal Bomb +Dow futures spiked after Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow unveiled a gigantic $6 trillion stimulus package for the U.S. But the gains didn't last amid underlying concerns about the health of the economy.](https://www.ccn.com/dow-futures-reverse-gains-despite-trumps-6-trillion-fiscal-bomb/) +The other [thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ph9kfx/whats_a_luxury_that_you_just_dont_understand/) about luxuries people don't understand got me thinking. Someone asked "if you don't want luxury what are you doing in this sub?" I thought it was an interesting question. + +There seem to be two different types of posters here (and a mix of tweeners): those that want fatfire for the luxurious lifestyle and those that qualify because the amount of money they need to live a comfortable upper middle class lifestyle without working brings their "number" into the fatfire range (let's say 6mm+) due to living in a VHCOL area (NY, SF). + +Our situation is that we would want a minimum of 6mm to live comfortably in the NYC area given real estate costs, tax rates, childcare costs, etc. We could move of course but the sacrifice of uprooting our entire social lives and family connections is not worth it. We would rather work for 5 more years and retire here than do so immediately in a cheaper location. + +I wonder what percentage of this sub falls into either camp, ignoring the aspirational/role-play types. Anyway just wanted to call out there is a big subset of us who aren't here for the luxury (not that there is anything wrong with enjoying luxurious things and experiences). +Hi everyone, + +Some latest events in the global nuclear and uranium sector: + +**1) The Uranium demand side** + +a) Japan wants to build new reactors + +b) Japan wants to accelerate the restarts of existing nuclear reactors (September 14, 2022): [https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Japan-Plans-To-Restart-Seven-Nuclear-Reactors-By-Summer-2023.html](https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Japan-Plans-To-Restart-Seven-Nuclear-Reactors-By-Summer-2023.html) + +=> this will increase uranium consumption in 2022/2023 + +c) UK September 29, 2022: EDF wants to extend life of UK nuclear reactors: [https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/09/29/edf-unveils-ambition-to-extend-life-of-uk-nuclear-power-stations/](https://www.energylivenews.com/2022/09/29/edf-unveils-ambition-to-extend-life-of-uk-nuclear-power-stations/) + +=> this would increase uranium demand early 2023 + +d) Canada September 29, 2022: [https://canadatoday.news/qc/ontario-aims-to-extend-pickering-nuclear-power-plant-to-2026-eyes-renovation-sources-34280/](https://canadatoday.news/qc/ontario-aims-to-extend-pickering-nuclear-power-plant-to-2026-eyes-renovation-sources-34280/) + +=> this would increase uranium demand in 2024 and beyond + +e) California, US, September 9, 2022: [https://www.enr.com/articles/54753-california-extends-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant-operations-until-2030-to-boost-grid-reliability](https://www.enr.com/articles/54753-california-extends-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant-operations-until-2030-to-boost-grid-reliability) + +=> this will increase uranium demand end2023/2024 + +f) Michigan, US, September 13, 2022: Palisada plant may reopen in Michigan: [https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3638765-a-big-win-for-nuclear-palisades-plant-may-reopen-in-michigan/](https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3638765-a-big-win-for-nuclear-palisades-plant-may-reopen-in-michigan/) + +=> this would increase uranium demand in 2023. + +g) Georgia, US, September 1, 2022: Southern Company has notified the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) of its intent to apply for a 20-year extension to the operating licences of both units at the Edwin I Hatch nuclear power plant in Georgia. + +=> this would increase uranium demand in \~2031. + +h) Belgium August 31, 2022: Belgium nears a deal with Engie on the licence extension of 2 1000MW reactors that were scheduled for closure in 2025 [https://www.montelnews.com/news/1347150/belgium-nears-deal-with-engie-on-reactor-lifetime-extensions](https://www.montelnews.com/news/1347150/belgium-nears-deal-with-engie-on-reactor-lifetime-extensions) + +=> this will increase uranium demand in 2023 + + i) South Korea (August 2022): the *10th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand* calls for 201.7 TWh of electricity to be generated with nuclear power by 2030, which will account for 32.8% of the country's total generation. The previous version of the mid-term plan, released in October 2021, put nuclear's share at 25% in 2030. The actual figure for 2021 was 27.4%, according to MOTIE. + +This increase in nuclear's share reflects the start up of six new reactors between now and 2033 (Shin Hanul units 1-4 and Shin Kori units 5 and 6) as well as the continued operation of 12 existing reactors. Nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 24.7 GW in 2022 to 28.9 GW in 2030 and to 31.7 GW in 2036. In April 2022 the Yoon administration said it planned to seek a 10-year licence extension to unit 2 of the Kori nuclear plant. The unit is currently licensed to operate until 2023. + +j) USA, September 26, 2022: Converting Coal power plants to Nuclear Gains Steam. A US Department of Energy report identifies over 300 coal plants that could be swapped over. [https://spectrum.ieee.org/nuclear-power-plant](https://spectrum.ieee.org/nuclear-power-plant) + +=> **This would double the annual uranium demand from USA!!!** And a massive build out starting \~2030 would mean that the needed uranium for this will need to be signed in contracts with uranium producers around 2025!!! + +k) Germany will probably extend the operations of 2 nuclear reactors. And if they extend the operations for several years => this will increase uranium demand in 2022/2023 + +l) Mexico extends the operational licence of their 2 reactors (September 21, 2022): [https://www.reutersevents.com/nuclear/mexicos-laguna-verde-license-extended-oklo-files-project-plan-nrc](https://www.reutersevents.com/nuclear/mexicos-laguna-verde-license-extended-oklo-files-project-plan-nrc) + +=> this will increase uranium demand in 2022/2023 + + m) Argentina (July 2022): Argentina is preparing to refurbish Atucha I, the first nuclear power reactor in South America, so that it may generate power for a further 20 years. A framework to regulate the work has been agreed**.** The company said the reactor would come back online in 2026. + +=> this will increase uranium demand in 2024 + +n) China is massively building new reactors: "China had 53 nuclear plants at the end of 2021 with a total generating capacity of 55GW. The country plans to expand this to 70GW by 2025 and up to 150GW by 2030, at which point it is likely to become the world’s largest generator of nuclear energy, ahead of the US and France." (September 27, 2022) + +=> **China today consumes \~28 Mlbs of uranium in 2022, that's 20% of global uranium production (\~135MLbs in 2022). Based on the uranium needs for reloads and the uranium needed for first cores of new chinese reactors, the total uranium demand of China will be \~50Mlb in 2025 (for 2027 consumption) and 110Mlb in 2033 (for 2035 consumption)!!!** + +But India, Turkey, Egypt, ... are also building new reactors that also need a 1ste core and than 40-80y of core reloads! + +0) **add to all the above, the shift from underfeeding to overfeeding creating an additional ANNUAL global uranium deficit of \~50,000,000lb uranium that will hit the uranium sector in 2H2022/2023** + +&#x200B; + +**2) The supply side** + +**In 2022 the global uranium production will only reach 135Mlbs.** And only with a significant higher uranium price in Q42022 than today, the uranium sector could maybe reach 155Mlbs global production in 2023. + +But the annual demand in 2022 is \~200Mlbs (primary demand + first impact of overfeeding in 2022) which reduces operational inventories of producers, convertors and end-users (utilities). + +Those operational inventories are now at a critical low level according to UxC (presentation in 1H2022), meaning that there isn't any room anymore to reduce operational inventories further. So now utilities effectively need to find an additional \~75Mlbs in the market!! But where exactly?? + +Today the uranium spotprice is \~48.25USD/lb, while the uranium sector needs 80USD/lb to increase production to be able to get global uranium supply and demand in equilibrium again a couple years after reaching those 80 USD/lb. + +Now comes the time that this will be translated in much higher upward pressure in the uranium spotmarket. + +And because the natural uranium cost only represents \~5% of total production cost of electricity from a nuclear reactor, utilities will not mind to buy uranium above 100 USD/lb if needed, because the cost of shutting the reactor down due to fuel shortage will cost so much more for the utility. + +**Conclusion:** The uranium price is about to increase significantly + +**This isn't financial advice. Please do your own DD before investing.** + + + +If interested: + +a) **Sprott Physical Uranium Trust** (U.UN on the TSX and SRUUF on US stock exchange) is an investment in physica uranium (no uranium on paper!) without being exposed to the mining risks + +U.UN share price at 16.00 CAD/share represents an uranium price of \~47.00USD/lb. + +17.00 CAD/share represents an uranium price of \~49USD/lb. + +18.50 CAD/sh would represent an uranium price of only \~54USD/lb. + +21.50 CAD/sh would represent an uranium price of only \~63USD/lb. + +25.00 CAD/sh would represent an uranium price of only \~73USD/lb. + +While the uranium sector needs 80USD/lb to increase production to be able to get global uranium supply and demand in equilibrium again a couple years after reaching those 80 USD/lb. + +&#x200B; + +[source: John Quakes](https://preview.redd.it/izr1c02bjer91.png?width=736&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eedd0229376287af1504fa550baa23ae602187d) + +b) **Yellow Cake** (YCA on London stock exchange) is also an investment in physica uranium without being exposed to the mining risks + +c) **Sprott Uranium Miners** etf (URNM etf): well diversified 100% uranium sector etf + +https://preview.redd.it/3mvqrqvxjer91.png?width=1166&format=png&auto=webp&s=0db079c8dc8d6cd49df312b5ac147032d8330f00 + +d) **Horizons Global Uranium index** etf (HURA etf on TSX): well diversified 100% uranium sector etf + +&#x200B; + +**This isn't financial advice. Please do your own DD before investing.** + +Cheers +&#x200B; + +[Remember this post? Yeah. It still holds true today. ](https://preview.redd.it/f5dbd6hwyfz61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bbab73a2b2c2d0f9a956604ee7bdcf04ee143f25) + +# A Few Reasons Why a $20,000,000 Floor is Possible. + +If the following statements are true, then a $20,000,000 floor must also be true: + +**Statement 1: Apes own the float. There is no doubt about that.** + +* If Fidelity transferees own 19 shares each, they’d own over 100% of the shares that should exist. + * Source here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbku8x/if\_fidelity\_transferees\_own\_19\_shares\_each\_theyd/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbku8x/if_fidelity_transferees_own_19_shares_each_theyd/) +* Across all online brokers, if apes own only 5 SHARES EACH on average, which is a severe underestimate, then we own the float. + * Source here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxrdcb/updated\_dd\_i\_did\_the\_math\_there\_is\_literally\_no/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxrdcb/updated_dd_i_did_the_math_there_is_literally_no/) + +**Statement 2: The amount of shares Hedgies have shorted is MORE THAN the total amount of the float and very possibly even the total amount of outstanding shares.** + +* Just take a look at these SI calculations. Even conservatively, the SI is at 218%. I'm not even going to type the not-so-conservative percentages. + * Source here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive\_estimated\_the\_current\_si\_based\_on\_the\_si/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) +* Even if you don't believe in the SI estimations, you know what will be SOLID PROOF of shorts being more than the float? The proxy votes results. So why don't you just sit back and relax? + * Want some hype? [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb590g/the\_gamestop\_from\_rc\_tweet\_is\_right\_next\_to\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb590g/the_gamestop_from_rc_tweet_is_right_next_to_the/) + +**Statement 3: When a margin call happens, Hedgies have to buy back EVERY SHARE they have ever shorted.** + +* This is simply a factual statement. There is literally no doubt in that. + +**Statement 4: It stands to reason that for the above reasons APES NAME THE PRICE.** + +* More specifically, only a SMALL PERCENTAGE of apes need to sell at $20,000,000 for the price to be $20,000,000. Remember the geometric mean? Warden can sell at whatever price he wants. As long as say, 5%, of apes sell at $20,000,000, then the price WILL be $20,000,000. + * More on geometric means: [https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9td6w/estimations\_for\_the\_total\_payout\_of\_gme\_based\_on/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9td6w/estimations_for_the_total_payout_of_gme_based_on/) +* You know what this means? This means that even if 95% of apes fall for FUD (which is almost already impossible), the price will STILL be $20,000,000. + +**Statement 5: It is in every ape's best interest that they sell with a floor of $20,000,000.** + +* When you align your interests with the interests of those you have a similar end goal with, then beautiful things can happen. And in this particular case, the interests of apes are definitely aligned. + +**Conclusion: So yes, a $20,000,000 floor IS VERY POSSIBLE and it very much WILL HAPPEN.** +Americans are retiring later than they used to due to increasing longevity, raising the Social Security age, and the decline of pensions. + +I vow this won't be me. + +https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-02/americans-are-retiring-later-to-boost-social-security-benefits + +Edit: It's not just collecting SS later. People are working later. + +> 38 percent of those aged 62 to 64 were working in 1990. By 2017, that share had risen to 53 percent. +Hi All, + +Now that the we are just 7 days away from the shareholder's meeting scheduled for 6/9 I wanted to share some thoughts on what we can possibly expect from the meeting itself. + +Gamestop confirmed the meeting for 6/9 at 11am EST and will conclude at 11:15 EST. Dont expect any big announcements during the meeting especially since its only 15 minutes. What usually happens in these meetings is the company will announce the PRELIMINARY results to the proxy vote. They wont announce the vote count because it simply wont be finalized yet by then (more to come on that later) they will know which items passed the vote and what didnt and thats pretty much all they will tell us. After announcing prelim results of the vote I would expect Sherman to have a few closing comments maybe hype up the earnings later that day but thats pretty much it. Remember the meeting is only 15 minutes. Link to announcement below + + +https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2021-earnings-release + + +So your probably thinking what about the vote count and when will we get those juicy numbers? Well I looked back at last year's meeting and what they did was 4 business days AFTER the meeting Gamestop filed a form 8-K with the SEC disclosing the finalized voting numbers which I linked below. I also took a screen shot of the most relevant part which is Gamestop announcing over 42 million votes tallied for a total of 66.4% voter turnout. So this is the filing we will all be waiting for and we know this year voter turnout will be much closer to 100% with votes counts potentially reaching the 100s of millions. And for that very reason we will probably see a delay longer than 4 business days for when final voter results are released. + +https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/349495b7-542f-4501-921c-320746dabbba + + +https://imgur.com/G0cczeE + + + +So now that we know not to expect the vote count at the shareholders meeting and that it will likely by delayed by at least 4 business days expect Citadel and friends to take advantage of this. They know our tits are jacked and that we are beyond hyped to get the voting results so they could use this delay to launch another major short attack. If the numbers are as bad as we are speculating then this is likely their last chance to shake as many paper hands as they can before Ryan Cohen drops the potential nuclear bomb that is the voting results. + +In short (TLDR) Dont expect voting results at the meeting or any big announcements for that matter. Final vote counts last year took 4 business days to release this year could be the same. Buy, Hold, Vote. + +EDIT: u/warheadhs pointed out that the 8-K is due 4 business days after the meeting so it wont be later than that. Still expect hedgefund fookery + +EDIT 2: u/humanslime shared a great table showing all the voting results from past years and wanted to include https://i.imgur.com/liOka98.png + +EDIT 3: u/greysweatseveryday made a good point that gamestop will know the final results at the meeting because the votes would have already been counted. I agree with this but when looking at last year where the election was a contested one and very close for that matter the actual vote numbers weren't shared at the meeting. Whatever Gamestop ends up doing this year dont be disappointed if vote numbers aren't shared until the 8-K filing + +EDIT 4: Some of you in the comments pointed out that Wes in the AMA today mentioned that share counts can easily be fudged or swept under the rug if they exceed existing share amount. Dont pin your hopes on exuberant vote counts if thats the case! + +EDIT 5: A lot of you have been asking what about other announcements like new CEO, NFT, crypto div, ect. These can literally be announced at anytime. While its possible they might have a something extra to announce at the share holders meeting I would think it's more likely we get something at the earnings call instead later hat day at 5pm EST. Remember Gamestop has been making most of their recent announcements either before or after market close and earnings call is after hours. IF NO ANNOUNCEMENTS ARE MADE THEN WE JUST SIMPLY CONTINUE TO BUY AND HOLD SIMPLE AS THAT. +On its face, it’s obviously great for Bitcoin if El Salvador adopts it as its legal tender. There are, however, nuances in the internal revenue code that make this news much bigger than most realize. + +Most know that when trading foreign currencies gains must be reported and are taxed. But Section 988(e) carves out a *de minimis* exception for “personal transactions” where the gains do not exceed $200. + +This is intended to allow travelers to transact in foreign currencies without all of the burdensome reporting requirements. + +So far, Bitcoin has not qualified for this exception. Under IRS Notice 2014-21, the IRS opines that Bitcoin is “property” and not a “currency” because “**it does not have legal tender status in any jurisdiction**.” There is a good argument, though, that once Bitcoin is “legal tender” in El Salvador, it will qualify for US individuals as a “nonfunctional currency” (under Section 988), allowing individuals to forgo reporting gains on small, daily transactions—“personal transactions.” + +In other words (**tldr**), if Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador, US citizens could possibly freely transact in Bitcoin, as a “nonfunctional currency,” without a need to report gains of less than $200. + +That’s potentially huge news for retail US citizens, but **there is also huge news for US Bitcoin businesses.** + +Most US businesses use the US dollar as their unit of account for bookkeeping and reporting. However, there are cases where businesses operating primarily in foreign jurisdictions use a foreign currency—the unit of account does not have to be USD. The unit of account used by the business is the “**functional currency**” of the business and, perhaps, even an individual (see Sec. 985 IRC). If a business’s “functional currency” is a foreign currency, it does not have to bother with gains/losses related to USD fluctuations. + +Again, under Notice 2014-21, Bitcoin cannot qualify as a functional currency. And, again, this could change if El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as legal tender. + +**Final tldr** If Bitcoin becomes legal tender in El Salvador, IRS Notice 2014-21 may become partially null, relieving US individuals and business of huge tax and reporting burdens, paving the way for Bitcoin to legally and easily be used as a currency in the US. + +*Disclaimer: I am not a tax lawyer. The discussion and analysis on this should be much more detailed before financial decisions are made. I’ve written this to be used as a starting point for discussion with a tax lawyer.* + +**Edit**: Many have pointed out that Japan recognized Bitcoin as “legal tender” in 2017. They did not. A lot of misinformed authors incorrectly wrote that, but there is a distinction between Japan’s legal recognition of Bitcoin as a form of payment and what the Code/Regs/precedent considers “legal tender.” I think (and hope) that El Salvador will truly recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. + +**Edit 2**: A Decrypt article mentioning this thread and citing former IRS counsel to point out additional nuances. https://decrypt.co/73101/el-salvador-legal-tender-move-unlikely-to-change-us-tax-on-bitcoin-former-irs-counsel. FWIW, I agree with most of what’s written. Particularly, (1) if Bitcoin is currency, all gains over $200 would be treated as ordinary income rather than capital gains and (2) the IRS will likely need to be challenged before their is clarity on whether Bitcoin will qualify as a currency rather than “property.” I disagree that it will require “more and more” countries to recognize it as legal tender—one should be fine, but it is true that there will likely need to be evidence that Bitcoin is actually commonly used for personal transactions (not just a pretextual “legal tender”). With the lightning network quickly gaining momentum, I expect El Salvador’s move to be the catalyst that starts to convert Bitcoin’s usage from just a store of value to also a common medium of exchange (i.e., a currency). +As per the article from VRO ([https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/48692/are-index-funds-over-rated-nowadays/](https://www.valueresearchonline.com/stories/48692/are-index-funds-over-rated-nowadays/)), index funds are over-rated. + + +I am interested in feedback from people if it's worth to make Index fund as core part of our portfolio. +Like Index fund from US market, is the Indian Index fund mature & robust enough? +I mean how bad do you feel for all the El Salvadorans that bought yesterday. We just got a 25% dip in most coins in less than an hour. + +This is one reason why we aren’t even close to being mainstream. This will scare so many investors and consumers away. To see their portfolio drop by 25% in less than 12 hours. They woke up with a quarter of their portfolio gone. + +Yes I do think this is just taking profits and a panic sale. Great time to stock up on crypto at a major discount. But still this is the crazy stuff that will keep crypto from being mainstream for awhile. + +Also another reason why taking profits is a good idea! If you don’t have fiat available. Maybe take profits next time so you’ll have spending money on the next dip. + +Anyone else get any good deals or catch the drop? Good luck everyone! + +EDIT: This is a good time to talk about a strategy I have. If you take profits you take them and convert to USDC. Then send them to Celsius, blockfi or crypto and let them earn interest. If a crash like this happens, you transfer them out and buy the dip. + Hello, + +Let's go straight to the point. + +Apple announced in 2020 that they plan to increase the level of privacy of the iOS users, with the release of iOS 14. What does that mean concretely? + +\--> As soon as you open a new app, they will ask with a pop up "Do you allow this app to track you across different apps". We expect that 10 to 20% of the users will say yes. Bumble officially said while filing their IPOs that could be a major risk for them, to do proper analytics on their users. + +Therefore, all the apps relying on paid acquisition, won't be able to track where you are coming from, and if you are a rentable user. Therefore, it makes it even harder to create profitable user acquisition campaigns on mobile. Those who will suffer from it are casino, midcore, casual games, as well as all the apps relying on paid subscriptions. It will provoke a drop of eCPMS (price per 1000 impressions of ads), as there will be less demand on the ad networks. + +Certain networks will suffer more than other, but the biggest one is Facebook. + +99% of the revenue of Facebook is coming from ads. It means that they will still be able to do targeting on Facebook itself, but not on the networks of apps that run ads (like all the games). Facebook is a key player in this industry, and this will certainly provoke a drop in terms of revenue (9M businesses are relying on their ad network). They officially said that IDFA change (this iOS privacy update) " Could Have A Material Business Impact". + +Apple postponed their measure to Q1 2021, but this will come. + +Google usually follow suit with these kind of measures. + +TLDR : Significant drop in terms of ad revenue on mobile due to the new iOS privacy change. It will prevent targeting and tracking of the users. Facebook will suffer from it like crazy, as well as other ad players such as Unity, Ironsource (IPO soon) or Applovin (IPO soon), and apps Bumble (IPO soon). + +Play : Wait for Q4 Revenue of Facebook. Then short Facebook until next quarter, when the measure will show its impact + +Thoughts ? +Edit 20170922 2242 UTC: Real /u/stevether here... I didn't post this. My password on this account wasn't that secure and probably picked out of one of the "haveipwned" databases. I have nothing to do with any of the topics discussed here but it seems like it's relevant to some of you so might as well leave it up? Also thanks for the free gold. Also also ironic that this account was "scammed" in order to post about another scam... + +**Original Thread:** https://www.np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/6w7wzs/biggest_crypto_scam_going_on_right_now/ + +This is /u/ralfnader66. Due to Paragon having reporting my account for spam, it has been temporarily banned(after I posted in another thread asking mods to confirm the message) + +I wanted to post an update to the original thread before their token sale begins. Please, I repeat, Please message the mods by pressing on the button on the right of this subreddit to Pin this or the original thread. + +I posted this article on the subreddit of paragon in support of Paragon 3 days back when I actually thought it was a legit project. +https://medium.com/@jordantt/paragon-coin-the-cannabis-blockchain-solution-12d8e115eb49 + +But since then I have received messages from 3 users who have altered my views about the project. I have also tried asking for a refund from Paragon and I don't think they are going to. + +*** + +**List of Events to follow through:** + +1. User posted : https://www.np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/6w7wzs/biggest_crypto_scam_going_on_right_now/ + + +2. Paragon Claimed it was someone trying to ask for ransom but it didn't change the facts and then they tried to brigade the post by downvoting it from 700 votes to 0. But then the reddit community caught up and it went to 9000. Following this the Moderators Pinned the post to create awareness. + +3. Same day, the Thread was Unpinned. Another user who had created the original thread, posted he asked for money and edited the post. Paragon used the archive of that fact and posted on their subreddit: https://www.np.reddit.com/r/ParagonCoin/comments/6weljf/our_trolls_have_revealed_themselves/ + + +4. I posted an article supporting Paragon https://medium.com/@jordantt/paragon-coin-the-cannabis-blockchain-solution-12d8e115eb49 on their subreddit and received a message from a User. + +5. Apparently this was the user who edited his post about asking for money which paragon quoted. + + +6. **NEW Facts:** +What this guy messaged me has changed my view on the projects for it being a confirmed scam. + +I will post screenshots. +https://i.imgur.com/4J1UysE.png +Basically, what that user claimed is that he was paid by Paragon his ransom to finally edit the post. He was then asked to assist in taking off that Pinned post. + +His first link: http://i.imgur.com/JrIXz0C.png +Is what paragon posted here: https://www.np.reddit.com/r/ParagonCoin/comments/6weljf/our_trolls_have_revealed_themselves/ + +He also mentioned that he typed the message that Paragon then sent to the moderators of /r/cryptocurrency - http://i.imgur.com/AuN10NQ.png + +7. So essentially Paragon has been paying off people to not have people see that thread. https://www.np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/6w7wzs/biggest_crypto_scam_going_on_right_now/ + +They paid off the guy who posted that so as to make him look bad and get the thread away from Public attention. + +8. I also came across this image from IOTAs slack channel about them claiming they are not affiliated with paragon. + +https://i.imgur.com/5T29gxQ.jpg which was later cleared but in the first place was put up because paragon was claiming they have a partnership with IOTA. But this has never been the case. + +"Lately, Paragon seems to be using the association with IOTA to attract IOTA fans to invest in Paragon; do not get tricked. This must have crossed a line, so now Dominik and David are taking a stricter tone." by /u/eragmus + + + +*** + +Overall on asking for a response from the Paragon team all they have said is: + + **Troll wants to make us fail, they are telling lies, they are blackmailing us.** + +The only thing that we can check to prove what the user says is true, is by having a moderator of /r/cryptocurrency confirm if they received a message similar to http://i.imgur.com/AuN10NQ.png from the Paragon Team, after which they took off the pinned post. + + + + + + +I'm a 19 year old Irish citizen/resident with around €8000 in savings at the moment (will be a bit under 11000 at the end of the summer after I get paid for my summer job). I'm hoping to move to Germany for university (haven't been accepted yet though), and cost of living (including rent) I estimate to be around 850-900 euros. I will probably receive the Irish SUSI grant (~260 euros a month) and the rest will come from whatever my parents contribute + savings + hopefully a part time job at some point. + +Currently, my plan is to: +- start a €500 emergency fund. This is more long term (e.g after graduation) since any short term emergency I can rely (somewhat) on my parents for. + +- €1000 rainy day fund. This would be for stuff like broken laptop/phone etc. +Then with the remaining ~10,000 I would like to split roughly half into living expenses for the next year(s), and the other half into some kind of long term investment (5+ years). + +My questions are: + +- is this a good plan? Should I prioritise something else (e.g larger emergency fund) or is this a good balance? + +- what is the best way to invest in an ETF (S&P 500) as an Irish citizen/German resident? If I invest via something like Degiro, how safe are my funds? If a broker goes bankrupt, what happens to my money (just considering current economic situation)? + +- Is an ETF a good investment or at the moment, or should I explore other options as well? + +- Just practically, what is the best way to hold the different funds? I currently have a credit union account which I use as my primary savings account, a current account tied to my debit card, and a Revolut account. Does it make sense to create two Revolut vaults for the emergency/rainy day funds? + +- Any other advice that I should take into account? + +Edit: formatting +Hello guys, + +I need some serious advice. I am 27 years old engineer from Germany, but currently working and living in Switzerland. My current job wage is the average of what a young engineer earns in Switzerland. My current wealth is about 83 000 CHF. a large portion of my wealth 65 % is invested into factor ETF (world, small-value, EM...), 20 % of my wealth is invested in Bitcoins and ETH. Another 15 % is in cash. + +Two friends (university times, I know them a very long time) of mine are building a start-up in Istanbul. Hence my origins are from turkey, I can fluently speak and write Turkish. One of my friends is an active overachiever and had built several small businesses, now is aiming for higher amounts. The other one is an analytical freak. The current case is, that we are looking for some investors (need about 2-3 Mio. €) for our business idea about recycling EV Lithium-Ion batteries. For the case, that we are getting the investment, would you cancel your current job well-paying job and leave everything behind for this opportunity? I mean I would get a salary in Istanbul too, which is far above the living standards. In relation to €, the amount of money I get is relatively low due to currency risk (1 EUR - 15 TL). + +My girlfriend is living in the same town as me in Switzerland. So I need to find a good balance between visiting her in Switzerland/Germany and working my ass off in Istanbul. Another option I have is to find a better-paying job in a bigger company in Switzerland and get paid far more than before. In that case, I would aim for Financial independence due to investing a large portion of money each month (2000 CHF). + +Sometimes the opinion or advice of others, who does not know and judge you is far better than people near to you. +TLDR: Married, 3 kids, 180k/year combined income before taxes. I have $0 in my account. + +The title says it all. I am married with 3 kids. I am the sole manager of my family's finances. My wife hates looking at anything money related (bills, bank accounts, etc). She has severe depression and anxiety, and grew up never knowing if they would have money for food or to keep the lights on. So the moment she could, she gave me the responsibility of managing our finances and never looked back. If I start talking about budgeting, affordability, etc, she gets too anxious and we have to stop the conversation. + +I won't pretend like this is any one person's fault. Through a series of shared bad finance decisions, we have landed in this predicament and I am not entirely sure how to get us out of it. All my accounts are dead in the water. Credit is maxed. I even took out a personal loan to try and get us back afloat and it didn't work. I spend my entire day with a knot of anxiety in my chest, terrified to open my bank account. I am constantly trying to find ways to cut expenses and save money, but it never seems to be enough. I end up "money hunting" (my term), aka returning purchases, selling things, anything I can to remedy this situation and put some money back in my account to keep us going. + +And it isn't like we don't make a lot of money. Combined income close to 180k/year before taxes. But I somehow can't seem to start getting us caught up. Even if it seems like I start to make progress, something happens and I take a financial hit, and I'm back to scrambling. At this point, all I can do is keep trying. My kids rely on me, and I don't want to let them down. + +I don't want money. Or donations. I want to be able to stand with pride and know that my finances are stable. Any advice is appreciated. +I've been growing in concern over the massive stock buyback bubble we are experiencing over the last few years. This year alone, companies are on track to buy back $800 billion dollars of themselves (a 51&#37; increase from last year and another all time record) (citation: [http://fortune.com/2018/04/20/stock\-market\-buybacks\-nervous/](http://fortune.com/2018/04/20/stock-market-buybacks-nervous/)) . Most of these buybacks are centered in the tech sector that has subsequently experienced the most growth with the most gains when they did the most buybacks. Apple alone is buying back $100 Billion dollars this year. One figure alone said that many of the tech companies in the S&P 500 are planning to buy back as much as 10&#37; of their market caps. This normally wouldn't concern me that much except that there's this: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBDBIQ027S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NCBDBIQ027S) + +It's a chart of nonfinancial corporate business debt. (The fact that it's nonfinancial is significant because financial companies are typically quite leveraged, and high debt is just a sign of success) Now, the debt levels wouldn't concern me either if the money was being used to reinvest in the businesses, but they aren't. If companies were just using their excess cash to buy back stock and issue dividends, I would see it as just a business decision, but they are literally cannibalizing themselves by taking on massive loads of debt just to pump up their own stock prices. The majority of the new debt that isn't used for refinancing is used to buy back stocks. + +I see a direct parallel to the Mortgage Backed Security market of 2005. In a controlled environment, isolated failures would be absorbed by the larger system with minimal loss. When everyone is too leveraged though, a small failure can have catastrophic consequences. Back in 2004, I had a blog preaching a possible crash in the MBS market, and I was dead on right. The part I was wrong about was that I expected it to happen a LOT sooner than it did. Markets can behave irrationally for a LONG time. + +This is how I see this potentially playing out. Interest rates go up a percent or two because a company is too leveraged and because the whole bond market raises its rates (pretty much a sure bet this will happen), one company can't refinance its debt without showing a loss. So, they reissue a small amount of stock or just accept a reduction in their credit rating. The problem is when all the companies suddenly have to deal with this, the bond market would shift rapidly to higher interest rates to compensate for all the reductions in credit rating and an overall uneasiness about the state of the debt market. This would make the problem worse which would in turn make interest rates even higher. It's a feedback loop like the MBS crash and subsequent foreclosure crisis. Companies will be left with no choice but to reissue stock to raise capital, and that will crash the stock market resulting in much less money for the same amount of company sold. So, they will have to sell more resulting in bigger valuation reductions. In other words, I see a 25&#37; crash in the stock AND bond market in the imminent future. Once again, I'm probably calling this way too early like I did last time. So, this might not happen for two years, but it will most likely happen. + +Any thoughts, arguments, discussions welcomed on this please. +I figured I should probably contribute more than just shit-posting memes so I decided to do a mini-DD on EXR, currently my largest holding. + +Unlike most DD’s, I didn’t want to focus too much on the company and what they’ve accomplished to date but more on what they’re planning to do from 2021 onwards, specifically the pilot production. For this reason, this might be more useful for current holders who want a better understanding of the future catalysts we’re expecting but for anyone new, I will provide a brief summary of the important stuff. + +# EXR, who are they and what do they do? + +Elixir Energy is an Australian-owned explorer in Mongolia, currently exploring their 30,000 hectare land for natural gas in the form of coal bed methane (CBM). In Australia, it’s referred to as coal seam gas so I’ll generally be referring to it as CSG below. + +The company holds 100% of a production sharing contract in the country, north of the Chinese border. One of the reasons this company is appealing is that with China’s pledge to be carbon neutral by 2060 and their phasing out of coal, EXR’s potential gas resource could be a vital commodity. Their location in the south Gobi region of Mongolia could also prove pivotal for potential hydrogen production which I’ll go into a bit more detail at the end. + +**Current share price** – 23.5c + +**Market Cap**\- $209.4m + +This link posted on the EXR HC thread (yes there are some great posts when they’re not arguing about climate change) is filled with valuable information. It covers risks, marketing opportunities, pricing summary, valuations, etc. It might seem lazy that I’m reposting it but I think everyone should give it a look because it has some fantastic information, even if parts of it do look overwhelmingly confusing. + +[https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/elixir-model-rev-90-and-comments.6220604/](https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/elixir-model-rev-90-and-comments.6220604/) + +# The current share price + +If you’re new to EXR and you look at the 12-month chart then you might be wondering what happened in April and why the price has dropped so significantly since that time. To provide a brief summary: + +* **April 14th** \- Operations Update. Yangir-2 was completed and found gaseous rocks containing 99% natural gas, essentially sales gas specification. The 2021 seismic program also commenced and one of the drills moved to an outlying location for the cracker well (insert foreboding sound). This was an excellent announcement and without looking I can almost guarantee it was followed by a Next Investor’s email which pumped the price to an all-time high. +* **April 19th** \- Trading halt for cap raising. This took most people by surprise as management had previously stated they had sufficient cash in the bank, however, taking advantage of the current inflated SP, they would be raising $10m through a placement to qualified investors at 36c as well as $20m in the form of a Share Purchase Plan. This caused the SP to drop into the cap raise range of the mid 30’s and stayed that way for some time. While not great in the short term, it allowed EXR to bring their program forward with the extra cash in the bank and would eventually let them add a third rig which occurred this September. +* **May 27th** – The Cracker-1S strat hole did not intersect any coals and was the first well in the North-West of the PSC. At this stage, EXR had managed to have a very good strike rate in identifying thick coal sub-basins and I believe the market had unexpected expectations so when they announced this well was unsuccessful the SP dropped back into the low 20’s. From memory, it touched 24c before bouncing back into the 30’s and then steadily dropped, the lowest being 20c in July. This wasn’t helped by the mechanical issues some of their drills experienced. + +Since that time, they’ve identified a new sub-basin (**Kingston**), a potential new extensive coal-bearing basin (**Richcairn**), added a third drill, and announced expanded seismic testing of an additional 300km. After their last announcement, the VWAP for the week sat at 26c, a nice increase but following the Evergrande market scare, the price dropped back into the 22-23 range. While these have all been decent announcements, I think the big catalyst will be the pilot testing which I’ll expand on below. + +# Management, who runs the show? + +If you’re invested in EXR then there’s a good chance you’re familiar with the management board or at least have heard one of the names. I won’t go into too much detail as a quick search on their website has the relevant information but I’ll provide a brief summary for anyone new to show why good management is important (fuck you XST). + +**Richard Cottee – Non-executive chairman** + +One of the reasons EXR is so popular is due to their management and the previous experience (and success) they’ve had on past CSG projects. Cottee was the Managing Director of QGC (Queensland Gas Company) and was pivotal in developing it from a $20m market cap explorer through to it acquisition for $5.7 billion. + +**Neil Young – Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer** + +Most likely the face you’ve seen if you’ve watched any investor interviews, Young runs the day-to-day operations of the company. He has over 20 years of experience in senior management working in the energy sector, specifically focusing on business development, new ventures, and gas marketing. + +It was also announced in a previous operations update that Young sits on the board of directors for the Business Council of Mongolia. + +**Stephen Kelemen – Non-Executive Directo**r + +Kelemen worked at Santos and led the CSG team from its beginnings in 2004, helping turn it into of Australia’s leading CSG teams. + +**Anna Sloboda** **– Non Executive Directo**r + +Sloboda has over 20 years of experience in corporate finance and developing junior resource companies around the world. With her global experience, she brings to the table the opportunity to deal with potential off-takers and partners. + +# Coal Seam Gas. Is it coal or is it gas? + +CSG, otherwise known as coal bed methane, is a natural, colorless, odorless mixture of various gases (primarily methane) that is extracted from coal at a depth of 200–1000m. Conventional natural gas reservoirs largely consist of porous sandstone formations capped by impermeable rock. The primary difference between conventional natural gas and CSG is the type of reservoir from which they are produced. CSG is contained in natural fractures of coal seams. + +The amount of gas retained in the coal depends on a number of factors, such as the rank of coal, the depth of burial, the immediate roof and floor, geological anomalies, tectonic forces, and the temperature prevailing during the coalification process. In general, the higher the rank of coal and the greater the depth of coal, the higher is the coal’s gas content + +Coal seams in the ground are generally filled with water, and it is the pressure of the water that keeps the gas adsorbed as a thin film on the surface of the coal. CSG is extracted from coal deposits that are deep enough to mine economically. CSG is extracted by drilling a well vertically through rock strata until the coal seam is reached, at which point the well may also be drilled out horizontally to increase access to the methane gas. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vctmq24gkrp71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e8fc56fc5b2f864c9413a4aac5a2570e68d939b + +# Appraisal, Pilot Testing, & Production. What does this all involve? + +The following information covers how gas is extracted from the coals, the various lifecycle stages, and the end result. Some of it may seem rather dense but it’s definitely worth the read if you’re invested and I’ve thrown some pictures in which will hopefully make it a tad more interesting. As part of EXR’s 2021-2022 program, they will be doing the following: + +* Drilling additional wells to identify potential coal sub-basins using seismic data acquired this year +* Completing an additional 300km of seismic +* Nomgon appraisal well to lead into pilot production (covered below) +* Feasibility study for a proposed gas-fired power station +* GOH Clean Energy Hydrogen (see below) + +# Appraisal + +One of the big upcoming catalysts in the program is the pilot production testing to occur at Nomgon. While identifying new sub-basins is fantastic, in the end, the factor that will really move the SP for better or worse is the production testing to occur later this year/early next year. The first step in this is the appraisal well. In the last announcement in September, they had this to say: + +*The Nomgon Central-1 core-hole has reached a total depth of 559 metres and logged 65 metres of coal. This well is* ***gathering data*** *to underpin the design of future production testing and various laboratory tests will follow in the months to come. Although the gas desorption process is ongoing, measured gas contents in this well appear lower than previous wells in Nomgon, which Elixir interprets to be an isolated and anomalous combination of* ***faulting and fracturing*** *at the well location.* + +*The next Nomgon sub-basin appraisal well – Nomgon 6 – will spud later this week. The results from this will feed not only into the* ***technical design of the planned 2022 production testing****, but also into the procurement of required environmental and other approvals through the formal annual regulatory processes in Mongolia.* + +The point of an appraisal well is to quantify the size and nature of the gas resource. The process is a pilot test, a small-scale trial comprising production wells with supporting water and gas facilities (separator, water storage). If this process provides an indication that commercial quantities of gas can be produced economically, then full-scale production can be planned using the information gathered during the exploration and appraisal stages. + +For this to occur, the gas production needs to have the right combination of: + +* Gas content +* Coal thickness +* Permeability +* Coal seam depth and coal type + +Furthermore, as part of the appraisal process, EXR needs to identify the reservoir pressure, reservoir geometry, and coal chemistry. This is all part of the ***gathering data*** section bolded above. + +# Pilot Well + +As part of EXR’s 2021/22 program, they will be constructing a pilot production well at Nomgon. The following information covers what this entails. + +A test well is a CSG well used to investigate the potential gas reserves in an area. A testing program involves the drilling of a group of test wells (up to 5) to just below the coal seam. These wells are used to measure the flow of gas and the volume of brine wastewater released from the targeted coal seam. + +Once drilled a submersible pump is installed to remove brine water from the coal seam. The reduction of water pressure in the coal seam allows gas to release from the coal and flow to the surface. Once a CSG company has perforated a coal seam, this depressurisation is permanent and the gas is able to migrate continually from this point on. + +A test well generally operates for several months. Once sufficient data on both gas and water production has been collected the testing is complete. The site may remain in place to allow for testing of other coal seams or the well may be removed. + +In some instances the wells are all vertical; in some cases a combination of vertical and lateral wells may be used. The amount of gas that can be produced is then measured and used as the basis for estimated reserves if simulated economic gas rates can be achieved in the test. Depending on the results of the pilot test, the configuration of wells may be changed to produce more optimum rates of CSG production. Usually one or more monitoring bores are also used to determine the impact of CSG production on the water table and to determine likely pressure communication between wells and beyond. In addition, core samples are usually obtained as part of the pilot test, so that tests of gas desorption, coal rank etc. can be determined. Using the pilot test, a final scheme is developed for well spacing, whether or not fracking or horizontal wells will be necessary, that might improve the overall economics of the field. + + + +https://preview.redd.it/eofsvyb7lrp71.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc4412bfbe3ddd2af85050b175b9dca644668973 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/hx04c428mrp71.jpg?width=739&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74758e05dde5395bffcec39a20f6c721c4df28fa + +Historically, CSG wells produce a considerable amount of water during the initial production and the volume generally decreases as water saturation falls and gas permeability rises. Drilling of vertical wells is common during the field development phase because it can be difficult to drill through unstable coal seams. Long-reach horizontals, where practical, can maximize contact with the reservoir, and recovery rates of between 70 and 90% within 24 to 48 months of production have been reported using multilateral wells. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pfd9oyy9lrp71.jpg?width=942&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e3584dde2d09844b6b82a5e523128cc0a5633dc + + + +# Fracking, what the frack is that about? + +In deeper and low permeability coal seams, hydraulic fractures are used to extract methane from coal. This involves pumping a mixture of water, sand, and other additives at high pressure down the well and into the coal seam, fracturing the coal seam and providing a track for gas to flow back. CSG production involves the extraction of water and gas. The level of gas produced from a coal bed is dependent on the thickness of the coal, gas content, permeability, and the depth of the coal seam. + +In some instances, the dewatering and depressuring of the coal seam is insufficient to stimulate gas flow in quantities that make the well a commercial success. In this case, it may be decided to carry out fracture or stimulation, usually in a vertical well to allow gas to move more readily through and from the coal seam. Not all wells require fracking; if there is adequate natural permeability then fracking is not necessary. From the point of view of a CSG company, fracking is expensive and can be complex. Therefore if it can be avoided, then it will be. + +In some circumstances, fracking is undertaken in vertical wells through the perforations in the steel and cement casing, to establish or enhance the connectivity between the producing coal seam and the 36 well. The deciding factor in whether or not to frack a well is the natural rate of gas production without fracking, the natural fracture pattern and the stress field in the vicinity of the wells. + +&#x200B; + +[Steps involved in fracking](https://preview.redd.it/hylzuzhglrp71.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bf34264d167c506a51e8ca628d3aaed2b92cf43) + +# Resource & getting to production: + +The process of moving from resource to reserve certification is described as the point where science meets economics. In order to achieve certification at the reserve level, commercial flow rates must be demonstrated. The amount of reserves certified can be dependent on several factors including the extent of wells with gas data, number of permeability tests conducted and demonstrable extent of the reservoir among other factors. Arguably, flow modelling is the second most important input into the assessment process after permeability. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/epbmlfhmlrp71.jpg?width=715&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f360300059bf03168ad675e2d1382f4cde58f89e + +The concept of reserves and resources is often represented as a pyramid (see above), with the broader base of the triangle representing the CSG resource. As the resource becomes better defined and better understood and the proportion of the gas that can be commercially extracted (usually a small proportion only of the initial resource volume) can be more confidently predicted, the CSG moves up the pyramid with the relatively small volume at the apex representing the reserve. If the price of gas increases then the volume of the pyramid representing the reserve may increase in volume as the amount that can be extracted commercially becomes greater. If the cost of extracting the gas increases, then the volume representing reserves may decrease in size. + + + +https://preview.redd.it/trm9lmynlrp71.jpg?width=917&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0e74eda0873e3fb9b443fd6f864d1a69f9f0002 + +In relation to EXR, earlier in the year they booked their first contingent prospective resource booking over just 2% of their acreage, which according to independent experts holds 60 billion cubic feet of gas in place and 24Bcf of recoverable gas, on a 2C basis. For additional calculations on the value of their contingent resource check out the first link that I posted. + +# Production + +Unlike a conventional gas field which may need just one or two wells, because of the nature of CSG deposits, and the limited volume of coal and gas that can be accessed from a single vertical CSG well, it is necessary to drill many production wells at quite close spacings of 1-2 km or less. Drilling is undertaken on a 24-hour basis for approximately 1-3 weeks per well. The time to complete the well is dependent on the depth, geology, and drilling rig used. The production wells may be drilled in the vertical direction only or paired with directional or horizontal sections into and along the coal seams. + +During the drilling process, a blow-out preventer is installed to ensure that in the event of unexpectedly high water or gas pressures, the system can be shut down. Compressed air or a water-based liquid is circulated down the well. Drilling fluids are used to cool the drill bit, lubricate the drilling assembly, remove the formation cuttings, maintain the pressure control of the well and stabilize the hole being drilled. + +After the well is drilled, it is lined with steel casing to provide a conduit for the removal of coal seam water and gases. The casing is cemented into position, forming a barrier to prevent fluids in the well from mixing with the surrounding aquifers. + +The well casing is pressure testing to ensure it can tolerate higher pressures than the pressures expected over the life of the well, minimizing the risk of liquid or gas leakage. During well completion, a pump and tubing is placed in the well and connected to a surface-mounted drive motor to extract coal seam water and enable of the flow of natural gas to the surface. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/m0i3fkjvlrp71.jpg?width=869&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b53dabbabfa40ac68859db95406aaac60ed12448 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jebsv19zlrp71.jpg?width=740&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=690ba447575f65ac6026f0c6491feac893f892a2 + +&#x200B; + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/cbtk4el1mrp71.jpg?width=605&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=50051b994af3b1bc594db1af091fec475245df87) + +# Where to from here? + +A lot of the above information is less focused on EXR and more on the process involved for them to go from explorer to producer which will most likely be the next mid-term catalyst. + +When I get the chance I’d like to do a part 2 to cover the opportunities once we receive some numbers following their pilot testing. This could involve the following: + +* Possible take-over based on their booked resource following pilot production and the potential value of the recoverable gas once better quantified +* Hydrogen opportunities both blue (gas) and green (solar & wind) +* Potential agreement with Rio to supply gas for their Mongolian Gold/Copper mine Oyu Tolgio +* Gazprom’s future gas pipeline and tapping into that to supply China with gas +* Construction of a gas-fired power station. As per EXR’s announcement on this, the power station would be constructed in stages, initially with the capacity of 10 megawatts but then expanded into a larger capacity project. Clarke Energy is currently undertaking a feasibility study on the proposed station. + +In mentioning Hydrogen, some relevant news may be dropping this week at the *International New Energy Summit* (29th-30th September). As part of it, Neil will be speaking for 20 minutes about the H2 development prospects. I’m not expecting anything big out of this but it may be interesting to hear an update regarding that side of the business. To provide some more context: + +# EXR & Hydrogen + +At the start of the year, EXR established a subsidiary known as GOH Clean Energy to evaluate the potential of clean energy-related ventures in the region. As part of this development, GOH purchased a sonic detecting and ranging (SODAR) unit from an Australian company, Fulcrum3D. This unit is used to measure wind and solar resources. The following is from the *International New Energy Summit* page: + +*In terms of Mongolia, the country has the potential to become one of the major producers of solar and wind energy through establishing the Northeast Asian Super Grid. The Southern Gobi region of Mongolia has tremendous solar and wind energy resources and there is great potential to produce 13,000TWh of electricity per year according to feasibility study. Based on feasibility study, “Strategy for Northeast Asia Power System Interconnection” initiated by 2017 with support of the Asian Development Bank, the Northeast Asian Super Grid is technically and financially feasible to establish from 2026.* + +*Under this condition, 5 to 7 billion dollars’ investment will be enabled as of 2026, 5 GW wind power generations will be commissioned by 2031 and 10 GW by 2036, and its installed capacity able to reach 100 GW in the future. In that, acceleration and implementation of the Northeast Asian Super Grid Initiative will play an important role in reducing the negative environmental impacts of the energy industry and mitigating global warming. Besides, the Northeast Asia could share significant growth of global renewable energy market in the future.* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xfqaujesmrp71.jpg?width=936&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f34ec7a10e08a6feda63c2745856188f371a7e39 + +In terms of Green hydrogen relating to Mongolia, the following is a section from *Green Hydrogen Application in Mongolia* released this weekend. A link can be found below. + +*We find that green hydrogen could be produced relatively affordably, at 3.3-4.7 USD/kg of hydrogen – compared to a global average of 4.8 USD/kg in 2020. The most optimal location for green hydrogen production with respect to the cost effectiveness is in the South Gobi region. However, its production potential may be limited by the local availability of water resources which is already scarce in the southern region of the country.* + +*From the demand side analysis, the results suggest that heavy-duty transport in the mining sector is the most promising application when considering both economic feasibility and GHG emission reduction potential. Shifting to a fuel cell-based truck fleet in 2020 would only be 12% more expensive compared to purchasing and operating new diesel trucks, in terms of energy delivered to the wheel. Shifting to fuel cell trucks in the complete copper and half of the iron ore production in the country could mitigate about 1.2 Mt CO2e annually, corresponding to about 3.5% of national emissions in 2014, at an estimated abatement cost of only 10 USD/tCO2e.* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tdynj0wtmrp71.jpg?width=989&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee02454ee4a1531fac08b845ecafc621026ed48e + +# Final thoughts + +As I stated at the beginning, a lot of this information may be more useful for current holders if you’re unfamiliar with some of the technical aspects of the upcoming pilot production program and hopefully I’ve made it a bit clearer. For the rest of the year I’m not expecting any rockets out of EXR as like a lot of companies this one is a long term hold and I’m confident in management to follow through with their program. No company is without its risks though but I’m also keen to see what happens over the next 12 months and find out more about the hydrogen side of the business. + +# Additional reading material: + +[https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/coal-seam](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/coal-seam) + +[https://eisdocs.dsdip.qld.gov.au/Santos%20GLNG%20Gas%20Field%20Development/EIS/Main%20Report/chapter-03-natural-gas-from-coal-seams.pdf](https://eisdocs.dsdip.qld.gov.au/Santos%20GLNG%20Gas%20Field%20Development/EIS/Main%20Report/chapter-03-natural-gas-from-coal-seams.pdf) + +[https://www.chiefscientist.nsw.gov.au/\_\_data/assets/pdf\_file/0010/31321/Life-Cycle-of-Coal-Seam-Gas-Report\_FINAL\_PJC.pdf](https://www.chiefscientist.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/31321/Life-Cycle-of-Coal-Seam-Gas-Report_FINAL_PJC.pdf) + +[https://ccag.org.au/coal-seam-gas-csg/](https://ccag.org.au/coal-seam-gas-csg/) + +[https://newclimate.org/2021/09/24/green-hydrogen-applications-in-mongolia/](https://newclimate.org/2021/09/24/green-hydrogen-applications-in-mongolia/) +The 540,000 put options held by Credit Suisse are no longer in Bloomberg as of this morning. u/Ravada and I both posted screenshots of these two days ago. They had expirations dates of 10/15/21, so I'm not sure why they wouldn't be there anymore. Here is u/Ravada post: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otxj0x/after\_my\_terminal\_post\_yesterday\_i\_checked\_again/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otxj0x/after_my_terminal_post_yesterday_i_checked_again/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +Here are the put options sorted by # of contract held in Bloomberg as of this morning (7/31/21): + +https://preview.redd.it/hn7tccgwtke71.jpg?width=1904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fbb06201fd71232d91450ee07acc7c65e146084e + +Here is u/Ravada screenshot from 2 days ago: + +https://preview.redd.it/j45mcvxluke71.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=365373e89ff53595b4236e70088c3089b0f1a3a5 + +Here is my screenshot from two days ago with Credit Suisse expanded to show that contracts held in the "multiple portfolios" were all indeed all puts: + +https://preview.redd.it/635bj8cxvke71.jpg?width=1893&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71a4974eb21703ceadfeb8e0a42381e291f66064 + +Note that my screenshots have dates at the bottom right of the pics. + +Edit 1: Note that Bloomberg does not have the Credit Suisse (BRA) put options in u/Ravada post on July 27. [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otj6da/28072021\_gme\_bloomberg\_terminal\_information/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/otj6da/28072021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +https://preview.redd.it/esqpi9cazke71.png?width=1915&format=png&auto=webp&s=8b1b124a801d8951085fcdaae8ccecbc2540be62 + +Edit 2: If anyone wants to peruse put positions for the month of July, here you go: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ovf7ab/historical\_put\_positions\_in\_july\_bloomberg/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ovf7ab/historical_put_positions_in_july_bloomberg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +&#x200B; + +Edit 3: Just got the following chat message. Of course, take it with a grain of salt. + +https://preview.redd.it/odeqbggtcne71.jpg?width=823&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1506f795355024628a982b2f0d14b17dd1c7dd31 +I'm pretty sure there have been posts on it already but god damn, this coins doin a lil sum! + +Feel free to check my post history - **every bsc shitcoin I've posted has 2-100x'd moments after I posted.** I might actually be a bit late to the party for this one! + +Their deets: + +**🔥🔥 BONFIRE 🔥🔥** + +Bonfire is a frictionless, yield-generating contract that allows you to seek shelter amidst the chaos of the market and earn passive income! + +**Tokenomics** + +\- 5% burned and added to liquidity + +\- 5% distributed to holders + +\- 30% of initial supply burnt. + +**🥞 PancakeSwap:** [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) + +🌎 Website: [https://www.bonfiretoken.co/](https://www.bonfiretoken.co/) + +📈 Poo Chart: [https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) + +📌 Telegram: [https://t.me/BonfireTG](https://t.me/BonfireTG) + +📌 Discord: [https://discord.gg/dfugFTUs](https://discord.gg/dfugFTUs) + +🐣 Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/bonfiretoken/](https://www.instagram.com/bonfiretoken/) + +🔖 Contract: [https://bscscan.com/token/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://bscscan.com/token/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) + +🔥 LP Burn: [https://bscscan.com/tx/0xfda5f97cc5aa6481ab580275066568b7362bc9262c1e017c4efe9f5336400a0b](https://bscscan.com/tx/0xfda5f97cc5aa6481ab580275066568b7362bc9262c1e017c4efe9f5336400a0b) + +**As always, DYOR - for me these coins are easy 2-10x's and risky 10-100x's - my strategy is to always wait for a 2x, take out my principle and leave the rest as a moonbag. DYOR DYOR DYOR, I won't take blame if you lose anything. I seem to be doing well off these plays but this is not financial advice - I can't/won't be held liable for decisions you make.** + +If you're interested, pop into the tg. +I called Fidelity a few months ago and asked why my acct was down 5%+ and they told me my investment mix was not set correctly for someone who is 42 and only been saving for 5 years. They changed my mix and now I am down 15% for the year. I realize the economy is trash but has everyone else seen the same type of decrease or are they making poor choices for my investment mix? I contribute 8% and company matches 6% I am single and recent home owner and make about 55k in a relatively low COL area if that matters. Any advice is helpful. +Felt like I needed to get this off my chest. I got greedy and just wanted to make a quick buck like I was living in the Big Short movie since it feels like we are in that moment. No matter how many hundreds of hours of research I did or learn (useless) chart patterns and trading indicators, i still got wiped clean with a 99% failure rate. I learnt the hard way that you just can’t beat the market as a retail trader... I made more losses trading and shorting this damn market than I would have lost in index funds during the flash crashes in March earlier this year. In fact, I calculated that even if stocks crash by a further 50%, I would have still lost less money holding index funds than I would have trying to time the crash... Now I’ve lost 3 months of wages and feeling pretty shit about it. +Half the posts on this sub were fucking loss or gain porn pictures you absolute morons. I’ve never judged y’all for your sexuality but man this has to be one of the most shit for brained decisions I’ve ever seen on Reddit. Do you think this sub grew 10x in the last two years because of the quality DD text posts on here? Jesus fucking Christ you absolute dolts + [https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +\> In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,169,000 to 3,176,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 7,000 from 4,173,500 to 4,180,500. + +&#x200B; + +\> The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 25 was 25,363,208, an increase of 6,443,777 from the previous week. There were 1,659,123 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019. + +Numbers surpass economist estimates of $2.5 Million Claims +Hi all, + +Im relatively new here (posting under 1 month, but lurked for abit and have been trading 4 years) but feel its time to move on. While I dont want this to be a rant post, the reasons are rant-worthy so I apologise if it comes across as such. + +Over the month stay on the subreddit, it has become pretty clear that the posts that gain traction here are 1 off trades (most in hindsight), memes & posts about having a trading epiphany (most of which arent actually epiphanies). + +While I have never said that I am a professional who should be listened to, it sucks when you try and contribute to the group (and I thank others who are on the same path) with issues that people encounter in actual trading that is more geared toward longevity in this industry & this is just overshadowed by someone logging on and posting about a supposed trade they took/ a meme. + +Perhaps it's all my issue, maybe I misjudged what the purpose of the subreddit was to begin with. + +Anyway, I don't intend to drag this on much longer. I will try to distance myself from the sub as it genuinely sucks to see so many on a path to failure being led by others who portray trading to be something it is not. I often have a feeling of anger when I see posts like the above because it undermines the hard work those that will eventually actually succeed are putting into it or the work that those who have found their success put into it and continue to put into it from day to day. These feelings of annoyance are the main reason I am stepping away as they wont go away because the root of the issue cannot be remedied : You cant help those who are busy chasing shiny objects and dont wish to be helped/ exposed to the reality of trading. + +Thanks to anyone that made the stay enjoyable and I hope that the sub can see a mindset shift soon. + +&#x200B; + +note : if any of this sounded arrogant or rude, my apologies.. its just my honest observations +**Have you used forex calculators?** + +Plenty of forex brokers offer you free calculators, where you put your stop loss and take profit price and the amount of your total capital that you want to lose if your stop-loss triggers. - Here is where the risk-reward ratio comes into play. + +You can use [tradingview.com](https://tradingview.com/)'s "Open Long/Short" position tool measures your trades risk-reward ratio once you set your SL and TP levels. You can use candle confirmations (engulfing candles, pin bars, tank bars, etc.) to set optimal stop-losses in candles with price action and calculate realistic risk-reward ratios. + +**In my opinion,** you will be profitable in the long run if you only lose 1% of your total capital per trade. If you apply this risk management strategy with optimal risk-reward ratios, you could be profitable even if you are right in 50% of your trades. Remember that losses become harder to recover the more you lose *(the 50% loss dilemma).* + +Also, I think it all comes down to practice/training, and the best way to practice in trading is through backtesting, **with or without code**. There are plenty of free tools that let you manually add candlesticks from the past to test a trading strategy without putting your capital at risk. + +Test your risk-management and charting strategies hundreds of times; use google sheets to measure the average time your trades are taking to execute (from open to close) and your average profits!. + +Good tradings and holidays. +Okay for you long-term holders that actually have sold now. Why? + +Why did you sell and betting on that the market that have already been obliterated is going down even more? In the stock market we only have a few and far between recessions and crashes. If you look at history it has always been the best buying opportunity's (Even tho you didn't buy the bottom). + +People may argue that all financial systems comes to an end at some point and that point is now. I agree but disagree that it's now and argue that we can't know when. At some point in time our financial system will come to end like all financial systems in history. The problem is that if the stock market goes to zero because everything is basically chaos I can tell you right now the economy of US would have already defaulted. Which means that even if you sold everything you owned your cash would be worth zero. So it's basically pointless to predict a dooms day scenario because if it happens it happens and it's nothing you can do to prevent chaos. + +Don't buy gold. It's so unnecessary to hold gold if you're going to sell it as soon the market reverses for you to be late in. + +I don't think "long-term" investors that have sold now can be called long-term investors anymore.. I understand if you sell a company that you don't think gonna make it under a pressured economy but otherwise you shouldn't invest anymore (If you can't hold and buy the dip). + +To make it more fun to discuss.. What stocks have you sold because you don't think it will make it through a pressured economy? + +Buy buy buy.. . And lets talk about how much money we made afterwards when the economy is back up again! +My point is that for every 100 anti NFT things on Reddit I see, the only times I see defense is by apes! It's so easy to call something you don't understand as something you don't want or even a "scam". + +But the real scam, the real fleecing happens countless times a day when the market is open. + +1 mil for an ape jpg?!? Outrageous. + +30 bln for a package representing short positions contained in ETFs and hedged via options? ThE MaRkEt DeCiDeS, JuSt ThE wAy iT is. + +There's been so much NFT hate and no love. We are actually early, and I'm convinced GameStop doesn't just want a slice of this pie they want the whole damn thing. + +Edit: I didn't anticipate this was going to get so much attention, I understand that swaps are not like NFT, which is a form of technology only and cannot inherently be a scam. However, MUCH like a scam (See ETFs) bad actors can use them in nefarious ways that deprive the holder of the asset or it's value in various ways. + +To those saying this is whataboutism, maybe, but NFTs and ape pictures have a lot less crimes to answer for then, specifically the real art market, or again ETFs. It's about proof of ownership, and those are other fair examples to compare it to. +Are we all going to sit here and pretend BRN isn't shitting the bed and going to continue to for the rest of the week? + +Thanks for saving me bags, bro, wherever you are. + What do day traders do? + +I don’t mean like, what is our day-to-day (which is essentially like being in the wild rotating between predator and prey), but what is our actual function in society? + +Some economists argue that our job is to fuel small businesses and prop good ideas up creating volume and attention and inevitably raising the capital in the product. But does buying a bunch of tokens and then dumping them on new investors really create social good? If you don’t hold the tokens for more than a day, did you really help the business? + +To which, ya know, who really cares, that’s not what you came to a moonshots forum for. But people outside of our bubble care. Regulators care. Voters care. Investors care. Eventually, for the entire system to grow, we’re going to have to prove that what gets created out here is more than just a bunch of shitcoins in a shit ecosystem creating a complete shitstorm. + +**LifeLine Token** provides an opportunity to have your cake and eat it too. With an initial 5% charity wallet that gets fed from transaction fees, LifeLine **makes** **monthly donations to causes combating children’s cancer**, the first of which has already gone out to [Alex’s Lemonade](https://www.alexslemonade.org/). That’s right, now we can day trade and virtue signal at the same time. + +So once you’re finished feeling good about your karma, it would be a good time to remember that **Grumpy Cat went from $5M - $50M in a single day**. This all after news started pouring out about a silly meme with a heart of gold that managed to very quickly send out $70,000 to charity. Luckily, unlike Grumpy Cat, Lifeline isn’t going to be facing any copyright issues and is ready to scale for the future rather than plan a short stay in relevancy. + +With that the team has already shown great dedication in engaging with their community and delivering on their roadmap. For a project that’s only two weeks old, it’s incredible to see them already **listed on CoinMarketCap**. As a **BSC token with a fully diluted market cap under $4M** you just don’t see that a lot. + +And if you’re worried about rugs because, ya know, BSC, and the irony of being taken by a charity token is too much for you, there’s no need to worry. The contract is available for you to review and has had an audit completed by TechRate so there’s no nonsense mint functions, and **all liquidity has been burned**. There's even an **anti-dump feature** in place that prevents any wallet from selling more than 1% of the total circulating supply at any time so you don't have to worry about a single whale dominating the market. + +The only thing that could be rugged is the charity wallet itself, but it started at a 5% share of tokens so it’s nothing worth writing home about for a team of their size, and they’re looking into finding a third-party custodian anyway in order to keep public trust high. + +With the whitepaper coming soon and a ton of marketing still on the way as they get every detail in place for a big push, know that you’re still early to what is a unique cause in a growing space. Just as we see thousands of charity organizations thriving in traditional finance, know that this is only the beginning in DeFi as people find new ways to skim margins off day traders for the good of society. Because, fair or not, society will be coming demanding to see the easy-to-digest fruits of our labor. LifeLine is definitely going to be a good start. + +[Website](https://lifelinetoken.com/) + +[Telegram](https://t.me/LifeLineToken) + +[Pancakeswap](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xd37c1417da7bf5b02ffdea8d5427022dc88a0ee2) +Hi my name is Andrew and I have been having issues for a long time. I have been struggling with homelessness for 3 years and finally have found a place that I can live for a year. When I went to college the first time my parents stopped supporting me when they found out I had a relationship with another guy and things have just gone downhill from there. 2 months ago I was tired of living and tried to kill myself but failed and was taken to a hospital and I'm fine now I guess. They connected me with a social worker who put me in an apartment and the deal is I have to pay $300 a month for it which isn't bad since I'm in San Francisco. But my life is kind of a mess. + +I only have $23.43 and my only valuable things are my laptop and my phone, one was a prize in a raffle and one was a gift from a friend. I have about 6 thousand in debt (2k in student loans, 3k in medical bills, and 1k from a credit card I got when I first was homeless that I used to buy food but couldn't pay off) I checked myself at Credit Karma and I have a credit score of 311. I signed up for fall classes at San Francisco City college because it's free and I want to learn things and I will me studying math (my favorite subject!) + +My greatest barriers are finding a job (I haven't got an ID or Birth certificate or Social Security card) and keeping a budget. There is a lot of information and I went through the links on the side but it's all just so overwhelming. I don't know where to start. + +I don't know how long I will have internet for but I really need help working out what I need to do. + + + +Hi, I am adding this later on. Thank you so much for all of your words and kindness. I will post updates on my life. + + +EDIT: (proper format I guess) if you guys want to keep up with how I'm doing I made a Twitter a while ago @DoinEveryfin but I will keep updating on my status +Finally, the yield curve has inverted. It’s something we were all expecting to happen ever since the Fed announced its rate hikes last month. The two-year yield settled in at 2.430% compared to the 2.374% yield of the 10-year U.S Treasury note last Thursday. This is the first time the two-year yield closed above the 10-year yield since 2019. Adding to this, the spread between [5-year and 30-year bonds inverted](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-28/treasury-slide-sees-5-30-spread-invert-for-first-time-since-2006) for the first time since 2006! An inverted yield curve is a very prominent indicator for predicting an upcoming recession. + +But, before we jump into the implications of the yield curve inversion, it’s important to understand what a yield curve is, how it predicts a recession, and what the previous data tells us. + +https://preview.redd.it/bu3pugvy0is81.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=e985edd7afffc4cb812239073c08bef5b2bde863 + +**What is the Yield Curve?** + +The yield curve is just a graph showing the relationship between the short-term and long-term interest rates of the U.S Treasury bond. The bond here is the promise between you and the U.S govt that says if you loan some money now (by buying the bond), they will give it back to you later with an added interest. + +https://preview.redd.it/jzej4we01is81.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=20ea73ab9a79b2b59ce278860bfdecae9bf26440 + +The above chart shows how a normal yield curve would look. The simple logic here is that it’s riskier for you to buy a longer-term bond *(the future is uncertain because of all the unknowns, good and bad, that could happen over years of time)* and you are rewarded proportionally for taking the larger risk. For eg., you would get a significantly lower interest rate if you are investing for 1-year vs 20-year as it’s generally riskier to stash away your money for a longer time period. + +https://preview.redd.it/xxjaz9411is81.png?width=897&format=png&auto=webp&s=a69337c54556c499533e7da431ed0ed36b75beb8 + +But the yield curve is not always positive. If the long-term and the short-term rates get closer together, the yield curve become flat. Finally, if the short-term rates are higher than the long-term rates, the yield curve becomes inverted. + +The yield curve becomes inverted when a lot of people are worried about the short-term economy. In theory, you would demand a higher return for taking on a higher risk. So if the yield rate for a short-term bond is higher than a longer-term bond, it implies that investors are so worried about the short-term economic outlook (*i.e they think the present is much riskier than the future*) that they are willing to invest in a longer-term bond at a lower rate. + +**Where does the yield curve stand now?** + +https://i.redd.it/6buvv2k41is81.gif + +This excellent visualization by [Eeagli](https://www.eeagli.com/) shows how the yield curve has changed over the past 6 months. The yield curve hasn’t completely inverted yet, but still, it’s a cause for concern. + +https://preview.redd.it/0t4lmyp51is81.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=22f9521b277b4bf5c4f678f84d7f937fee7dbd8d + +The drastic difference that occurred in just the last year in the yield rates is visible in the above chart! Ideally, the yield rates are supposed to be in increasing order like it was in Apr 2021. Now the 2-year yield rate is more than the 10-year one and almost equal to the 30-year yield rate. + +**Does Yield Curve Inversion Predict a Recession?** + +The yield curve is considered one of the best signals that are currently available for predicting a recession. As per the research done by FRBSF, + +>*Every U.S. recession in the past 60 years was preceded by a negative term spread, that is, an inverted yield curve. Furthermore, a negative term spread was always followed by an economic slowdown and, except for one time, by a recession. -* [*FRBSF*](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/march/economic-forecasts-with-yield-curve/) + +https://preview.redd.it/s7oyvu971is81.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=9479357a888a4ef32f0af4b7586252a4afd8e07f + +While the above results are for the spread between 1 and 10-year rates (which is still positive now), research done on 2-year and 10-year spreads shows a similar trend. According to [Commonwealth Financial Network](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/604484/inverted-yield-curve-stocks), the 10-and-2 yield curve has inverted 28 times since 1900, and in 22 of those instances, a recession has followed. + +While there is certainly statistical merit for yield curve in predicting a recession, where experts are conflicted is in the type of spread that should be used. There are various different spreads we can consider (3-month vs 10-year, 1-year vs 10-year, 2-year vs 10-year, etc.). All of these provide different probabilities and timelines for an upcoming recession. For example, if you consider the 3-month vs 10-year spread (positive as of now), it has predicted every recession with [100% accuracy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCQwiF0J7hw&ab_channel=CNBC) in the last 50 years. + +https://preview.redd.it/6gphtpg81is81.png?width=1272&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1e9c6bf2f2fa0e9783a3edae66694b0fd900299 + +**What’s the best thing to do now?** + +Given that, an inverted yield curve is a reliable indicator of a looming economic downturn, what should we do to best prepare our portfolios incase a recession hits. The worst thing you can do now is to panic - especially when the yield curve inverts. + +The problem is that even though yield curve inversion indicates a recession, it does so long before the actual recession hits. For eg, the tech bubble burst in Mar’01 but the yield curve had inverted almost 3 years before that (34 months to be exact). The same thing occurred again during the 2008 financial crisis when the yield curve inverted as early as 2005. + +According to research conducted by[ LPL Financial,](https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/604484/inverted-yield-curve-stocks) Yield curve inversion can be bullish for stocks, and the last four times the 2-and-10 yield curve inverted, the S&P 500 was up an average of 28.8% before it peaked! + +https://preview.redd.it/099pv1m91is81.png?width=836&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab2a46fed2da581a022e2183c1d8df97e040e156 + +Adding to this, I had done an [**extensive analysis**](https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/recession-primer?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) on how the stock market performs during and following a recession. + +https://preview.redd.it/g8n1n0ba1is81.png?width=889&format=png&auto=webp&s=239cdedaf68ca0b1d800ed8a2daf127495e06a25 + +On average, the U.S recessions lasted only 10 months and the market returned a +1.7% in return. What is even more interesting is the market performance just following the recession. + +https://preview.redd.it/e4brta3b1is81.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=260627c7eb7e31e4d74fc215e905e4937b9d7c24 + +After the end of the recession, in just one year, you would have made money in 85% of the cases. And after 3 years, you would have been **in the green in 100% of the cases!** + +**Conclusion** + +Predicting future economic developments is a tricky business! There are 100’s of factors that are different than the last time, but an inverted yield curve is one of the most reliable predictors we have for accurately predicting a recession. + +But as we could see from the analysis, it takes a while for the economy to finally go into recession after the curve has been inverted and you will miss out on the gains till then if you stay out of the market. If you are feeling truly adventurous, you can always try keeping a certain portion of your portfolio out and try to buy the [inevitable dip.](https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/is-waiting-for-a-dip-the-best-investment?s=w) + +For the rest of us, even if the recession hits, the best strategy is to stay invested and weather the storm. + + +UPDATE: LIQUIDITY GOT LOCKED. HUGE POTENTIAL. + +Okay without too much shilling how this is gonna be the next SafeMoon, ElonGate or whatever, I'm geniunely inviting you to DYOR and check out AutToken. + +TL;DR + +* first Autism focused charity token +* 2% of each transaction goes into the donation wallet +* weekly donations towards various autism charities (decided by the community on a weekly twitch stream) +* ownership renounced, presale done, pancakeswap launch in 30 mins +* devs fully doxxed +* contract: 0x47b80b600d5e4d2a6c2e1bda0e2d460ef6689850 + +AutToken is the autism focused Charity Token on the Binance Smart Blockchain. It benefits both its investors and the Autism community by donating 2% of all transaction fees to various autism charities live on Twitch every week. + +A message from the devs: + +>We’re committed to investing our expertise and resources in order to do something good for a cause very dear to us. With so many rug-pulling schemes out there, we wanted to create something which would benefit the large autistic community and also be a safe, worthy and rewarding investment opportunity for the tokens community, and so we Created AutCoin, the Worlds First Autism Focused Charity token. We are completely transparent for your peace of mind. +Our plans focus mainly on donating through the donations wallet. Every so often, we, with the help of the community, will choose charities or funds which are in line with our goals and donate a sum of money to them live on stream. We will take steady and honest steps to fulfill our goal; to help change attitudes and create a society that works for the autistic community. + +Tokenomics: + +* 2% of tx will automatically go to the charity wallet +* 2% of tx will be redistributed to holders to incentivize long-term holding +* 2% of tx will go towards the locked liquidity pool + +DxSale successfully done, 300 BNB hard cap reached and sold out within 10 seconds. + +website: [www.autcoin.io](http://www.autcoin.io/) + +telegram: [www.t.me/AutCoinn](http://www.t.me/AutCoinn) + +bscscan address: [https://bscscan.com/token/0x47b80b600d5e4d2a6c2e1bda0e2d460ef6689850](https://bscscan.com/token/0x47b80b600d5e4d2a6c2e1bda0e2d460ef6689850) +I run a small team, 7 folks including myself. Recently I had 2 key employees put in their resignations, both moving on to better paying jobs - as in 40% & 60% pay increase. In their exit interviews both employees stated that the reason they're leaving is due to their pay, and both commented that I am a great boss, that the company should hold on to me "for dear life", etc. With them gone, I am scrambling to train up 2 of the junior staff and hire 2 new folks. I have a lot of responsibility and weight on my shoulders. I put in a lot of hours (that's not a new thing). I want to ask for a raise now but is this a good time to do so? + +The staff that left are correct, we do pay less than other companies in our general area. I can't leave now, going through escrow and was just granted permanent WFH permission so I can move away and continue to work at this company. +https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculator/ + + + +Put in your stock, put a good time horizon such as 10/15 years, click "compare with s&p500', look at the top graph of "With dividends reinvested." + +If your chosen dividend stock outperforms or is at least somewhat competitive with s&p500, then you can ignore the rest and keep browsing. + + +BUT if the blue s&p500 line rockets over your chosen stock line and never comes back to orbit, then it's better to just invest in the s&p500 than your chosen stock. + +"but chillstep, I think that my multi-decade flat line/decreasing dividend stock has a better future than FAANG" + +Good luck with that my friend, and in 10 years from now, that gap would have just gotten bigger. Dividends absolutely play a good part in a balanced portfolio and compound interest is great, but you can't outrun basic math. + +edit: Let me clarify that I am absolutely not against divvy stocks. Divvy stocks can be great based on their total rate of return. What I am talking about is if I plug your particular divvy stock into the calculator, and I see the blue spy line go up and up and up, and your divvy stock just gets demolished in comparison to spy, then there isn't much of a point in investing that in particular stock compared to other better dividend stocks or just buying the sp500. +I have been landlording for 22 years and have never had an eviction. + +I currently have 7 doors (soon to be 8). At some point, I will detail this for other first time eviction folks in a different post, but for now... I just want to give a real life story as a warning for using rent collection services (in this case [Apartments.com](https://Apartments.com)). + +The Story: + +Tenant has been in the unit since January of '22 and has paid fine until this incident. + +July 4th and August 4th payments were made and cleared. The funds were shortly thereafter moved to my account. + +On August 11th, Apartments emailed me and said that the funds for July 4th were 'disputed as fraudulent' by the payer. In theory, by the renter. They do not tell me anything about why, or how the payments were made, they simply removed them from my account. + +Please note, there is NOTHING legally wrong with the lease or agreement or level of service or anything like that. + +Whoever MADE the payment (probably by a bank account) disputed the payment with their bank. The bank called [Apartments.com](https://Apartments.com), and [Apartments.com](https://Apartments.com) pulled the funds from my account (a whole MONTH and some days after the payment was made). + +I immediately called Apartments, and they said that I needed to speak with the renter... The renter claimed ignorance and I am shit out of luck. + +In an additional post, I will talk about the eviction process, but for this, suffice it to say that I immediately served her with a 10 day comply or quit (with the legal counsel of my attorney). + +The kicker? a few days ago, It ALSO happened with the August 4th payment. In an effort to protect myself, I have removed her from Apartments, and have taken all of my funds out of that account, but they still pulled the funds, and now I am negative. In theory, this could happen again with June payment? What would I do at that point? + +Note: I can't stress enough that this is NOT a dispute between myself and the tenant that would justify not paying, there is nothing wrong with the lease or the unit or my service as a landlord (it's a lovely unit). This is pure fraud on her part. + +&#x200B; + +So, here is why I post this: + +1. WARNING: Banks and Renters can pull funds that have cleared out of your account, very possibly even AFTER they are gone? + +2. Advice request: Anybody have any advice? + +TLDR; be EXTREMELY wary of rent collection services. +MoonPirate is a completely community run project and going onto it's 2nd week since a very successful launch. + +&#x200B; + +📢📢After a very successful Live AMA with a community mod (Val), price initially jumped up about 20%, before leveling back down into a dip. I picked up a little bit more, because during the AMA, they announced at the end that the team is WORKING ON A NEW SWAPPING platform called PirateSwap. I know there are a lot of swap platforms out there, but knowing this team, I feel like we still have a lot higher to go than the current $20M market cap. + +&#x200B; + +Also, the original dev is MoonPirateAdmin, who has renounced ownership, but he announced he WILL be doing an AMA on the YouTube channel Project MoonGold this week. I am hoping he'll be dropping some sweet, juicy, pirate-y information on the MoonPirate alcohol (rum distillery) and CoinMarketCap listing. With the professionalism of the team, I am pretty sure listing is super close, and are headed for a moonshot upon listing, as with most coins in shit coin central. + +&#x200B; + +WATCH 1st AMA HERE: [https://youtu.be/9djpEkW5rYg](https://youtu.be/9djpEkW5rYg) + +&#x200B; + +I am also going to throw out that they have a theme song out (it's on their telegram), and they are apparently going to be making a pirate music video to shill the hell out of the coin lol. + +&#x200B; + +I am also going to leave some important links here. Once again, DYOR. + +Medium article with 1 week recap from original dev: + +[https://moonpirate21.medium.com/moonpirate-booty-buccaneers-barnacles-one-week-breakdown-c7125b0a7712](https://moonpirate21.medium.com/moonpirate-booty-buccaneers-barnacles-one-week-breakdown-c7125b0a7712) + +&#x200B; + +MoonPirate rum: + +[https://get-nok.com/shop/ols/products/moonpirate-rum](https://get-nok.com/shop/ols/products/moonpirate-rum) + +(Get Nok is a new business, as the owner broke off from a bigger distillery company before launching this one) + +&#x200B; + +It is not available yet, but the dev said it would be out after it's distilled (rum takes 4 weeks to distill). I haven’t seen many physical products especially in this meme coin space, but we can actually own something physical once these launch. They said they’ll be doing maybe 100 1st edition bottles that can be shipped in the US for first takers, and they’ll be linking it to NFTs (bottle comes with NFT ownership). + +&#x200B; + +✅ TOKEN ADDRESS: 0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66 + +💰 How to buy video: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f9eHmJy86s&ab\_channel=DeFiDom](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7f9eHmJy86s&ab_channel=DeFiDom) + +💵 Purchase on Pancake Swap: [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66) + +&#x200B; + +🌚 MoonPirate is SAFU and sailing to the MOON + +🔥 100% LP tokens burned. 63% of all supply burned. + +♻️ 2% fee AUTOMATICALLY GOES BACK INTO LIQUIDITY + +💎 1.2% fee AUTOMATICALLY GETS DISTRIBUTED BACK TO HOLDERS + +🔥 0.8% GETS BURNED FOREVER + +&#x200B; + +🔮 Contract Address 🔮 + +[https://bscscan.com/token/0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66](https://bscscan.com/token/0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66) + +👌🏻 Ownership Renounced 👌🏻 + +[https://bscscan.com/tx/0x761054a6b262d484be39099639a9b89465805c18f2a97f4b94a53726c1d7bc6d](https://bscscan.com/tx/0x761054a6b262d484be39099639a9b89465805c18f2a97f4b94a53726c1d7bc6d) + +🔥 LP Burned 🔥 + +[https://bscscan.com/tx/0xc4189bc138d0b1f02a88d65014ff7605f8d10e6e27e12783c28db326a56c7e18](https://bscscan.com/tx/0xc4189bc138d0b1f02a88d65014ff7605f8d10e6e27e12783c28db326a56c7e18) + +&#x200B; + +📲 Links 📲 + +Website: [https://www.moonpirate.finance](https://www.moonpirate.finance) + +Twitter :[https://twitter.com/moonpiratebsc](https://twitter.com/moonpiratebsc) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/MoonPirate](https://t.me/MoonPirate) + +Pricebot: [https://t.me/moonpirate\_pricebot](https://t.me/moonpirate_pricebot) + +Announcements: [https://t.me/moonpirateannouncement](https://t.me/moonpirateannouncement) + +YouTube: [https://youtu.be/9djpEkW5rYg](https://youtu.be/9djpEkW5rYg) + +Discord: [https://discord.gg/dwgeUTHv](https://discord.gg/dwgeUTHv) + +Twitch: [https://www.twitch.tv/moonpirateofficial](https://www.twitch.tv/moonpirateofficial) + +&#x200B; + +📈Chart 📈 + +[https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66](https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xf09b7b6ba6dab7cccc3ae477a174b164c39f4c66) + +&#x200B; + +🚗 Roadmap 🚗 + +&#x200B; + +✅ Fair launch with buy limit + +✅ LP tokens burned + +✅ 60% initial token burn + +✅ Pricebot + +✅ Website and Twitter launch + +✅ Coingecko Application ⌛️ + +✅ Mobile Friendly Website + +✅ Website info section + +✅ Audit [https://www.moonpirate.finance/info/audit](https://www.moonpirate.finance/info/audit) + +✅ BSC Scan MC and Logo Updates pending + +✅ LitePaper + +✅ TonyMontanaATH promo + +✅ Unirocket paid! Advertising us soon + +✅ Rum distillery in California CONTRACTED! See litepaper for more details on website + +✅ Website updates + +🟡 PirateSwap Announced (Swap for MoonPirate directly. In development) + +🟡 NFT Staking and Mining (planned) + +🟡 International rum dropshipping! (litepaper for more info!) +All of us have at least once wished we had made a similar play to the one that [turned $17 into \~6M](https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/05/21076574/he-invested-17-in-shiba-inu-now-he-has-almost-6m) or had gotten into the [right crypto at the right time.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/06/millennial-dogecoin-millionaire-on-being-paid-in-dogecoin.html) It’s not like we are alone in this thought process - there are more than 1.7 million people right now trying to find the [next crypto moonshot](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMoonShots/). For those who are out of the loop, a moonshot is something that has a low probability of becoming extremely successful \[1\]. + +While it’s definitely nice to be the guy who made the correct play, what I wanted to understand is, how likely are you to pick the next big coin? After all, there are more than [2,400 dead coins](https://www.coinopsy.com/dead-coins/#other) that were part of someone’s moonshot not that long back. When a coin is dead, we would end up losing almost 100% of the capital that we invested in it thereby breaking the cardinal rule of investing. + +>*Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1 -* ***Warren Buffet*** + +While Warren Buffet might not be the best example for the crypto world, his advice holds true just as well in all investing spaces - Once you lose your capital, it’s game over. So in this deep-dive, let's see how the less popular cryptos have performed over the years, whether it makes sense to invest in them, and finally, would you have made better returns just by investing in the top cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum?! + +### Data & Analysis Methodology + +All the data used in the analysis has been collected from coinmarketcap.com. Their data is available going as far back as 2014. I collected the price, market cap, and the symbol for all the coins listed in coinmarketcap on Jan 1st of every year from 2014 to 2022. There were only 67 listed coins in 2014. The list has grown to more than 3,000+ as of Jan 2022. All the data and my analysis are shared as a Rows sheet at the end. + +The analysis is fairly simple and I have intentionally made the strategy straightforward so that it’s easy to replicate. We will be comparing the performance of the Top 10 Cryptocurrencies with the next 90 based on the total market cap of the coin. + +[The end of 2017 was definitely some wild time to be in the Crypto space.](https://preview.redd.it/ie9owd9mylv81.png?width=895&format=png&auto=webp&s=4830cb8e014e559cb2754b8f514a90a7f1787ac1) + +I have limited the analysis to the top 100 coins because of two reasons + +1. Even now, close to 95% of the combined market cap of the crypto market is contributed by just the top 100 coins. Adding to this, it becomes more and more difficult/riskier \[2\] to invest in coins having low market cap due to platform and liquidity issues. +2. There are hundreds of new coins that are being launched every day. It’s almost impossible to keep track of all the coins and realistically do proper due diligence before investing. So for practical feasibility, I am limiting it to the top 100. + +### Results + +Before we jump straight into the return calculation, it’s interesting to see how the crypto market has changed over the years. + +https://preview.redd.it/m0fng8moylv81.png?width=649&format=png&auto=webp&s=98fb3edb350696ab03e9136c7b2eaf3ab9f46336 + +In the first few years where crypto was becoming mainstream (2014 to 2017), the top 10 currencies dominated the overall market cap contributing close to 99% \[3\]. Also, during crashes, we can observe a massive shift in capital allocation from Altcoin to Bitcoin → 2017 was one of the best bull runs (barring 2021) where we can see that Bitcoin only contributed to \~39% of the market cap. But once the bear market set in (2018-19), the allocation to bitcoin proportionally increased until the 2021 bull run. + +#### Creating a Crypto Index + +To answer our initial question → Whether it’s better to invest in the top 10 most popular cryptos or the other 90 relatively lesser-known ones, we will be creating an equal-weighted index \[4\]. + +We have two people Alan and Charlie who want to get into the crypto market in 2014, but both are following a slightly different approach. + +Alan will invest only in the top 10 most popular currencies. Every new year, he will go and check the top 10 cryptos by Market Cap and then equally invest between the top 10 cryptocurrencies. Charlie, on the other hand, will do the exact same thing with the only difference being that instead of the top 10, he will invest in the 90 next biggest cryptocurrencies. + +They continue to do this over the next 8 years and now it’s 2022 and it’s time to see who has performed better. + +[Returns shown here are till Jan 1st, 2022](https://preview.redd.it/5u10wctsylv81.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=aacb02399d50dbd1d1874aba631a97dc354dbaab) + +Would you look at that! Alan who has invested in only the top-10 cryptos did vastly better than Charlie who went for the riskier play of investing in the not so well known currencies. The top 10 cryptos on average performed 5x better than the next 90 and 2x better than just investing in Bitcoin. What’s even more interesting is that Charlie would have done 2x better just putting his money in Bitcoin - Ouch! + +#### Survival + +If you are wondering why Charlie is getting the lowest return in spite of taking the most risk\[5\], it’s because you are forgetting Rule 1 of investing - To not lose your initial investment. + +https://preview.redd.it/mmntwr9vylv81.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c69754b5cbf65bc865d87a11ea5116baf9f5a70 + +The probability of survival of a coin is extremely skewed towards the top 10 currencies. As you can see, over 80% of the top 10 coins from 2014 are still in existence today compared to only 26% of the rest. This trend keeps repeating over the years and your capital would have been decimated. Once it goes to zero, there is no way for it to come back up as any gain on $0 is still 0! + +#### Moonshots + +Finally, we come to what we are all here for! What are our chances of actually hitting a moonshot following this strategy? + +[I have defined a 100x return as a Moonshot](https://preview.redd.it/j8oiifewylv81.png?width=404&format=png&auto=webp&s=fec161da3968b773bb1f96eca3da9c114da48cd9) + +Well, your chances of hitting a moonshot are also much higher following the top-10 strategy. Overall, you had a 1 in 10 chance of getting a 10,000% return compared to the 1 in 30 chance of the riskier next-90 strategy. + +The above chart also shows another interesting stat → Out of the 500+ cryptos that we analyzed, less than 4% of them ended up becoming a moonshot. Think about that for a min - Of all the cryptos you are likely to hear about (*as there is very less coverage if it’s not in the top 100*), only 3-4% of them end up giving you those insane returns. You have similar chances betting on a single number on the Roulette wheel. + +https://preview.redd.it/23hva9qyylv81.png?width=391&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bf4c72e5515d1c77faa01aa82b29eaf590c6289 + +As you can see, of all our moonshots, Ethereum investment in 2016 ended up returning the most at a whopping 397,548%! + +### Limitations + +It’s important to understand the limitations of the current analysis before trying to replicate it. + +1. **Data** \- As I discussed earlier, all the data is from coinmarketcap and I have assumed a coin is dead if it’s not listed in the following year’s data. This analysis is only as strong as the quality of input data \[6\]. I have done extensive QCs but feel free to play around with the raw data to see if I missed something. +2. **Base Effect** \- The market is considerably different now than it was in 2015-17. There is more awareness as well as penetration. So the future growth might not be as explosive as the one that we observed in the past decade, so you should be realistic about your return potential +3. **Intra Year Returns** \- The current analysis only considers returns based on Jan 1st of every year starting from 2014. If we pick another date within the year, we might get slightly different results as there might have been ATHs and ATLs within the year which we are not capturing. + +### Conclusion + +>*It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong — George Soros* + +I started the analysis thinking that investing in the not-so-popular currencies is bound to give better returns as it’s more likely they are undervalued due to lower publicity and hype associated with them. + +But, as we saw from the data, in the case of crypto it’s much more profitable just to invest in the top currencies. It’s like the case where being in the game is much more important than trying to hit it big and striking out! + +***If you liked this post, you might like my other analysis on Crytpo:*** [How to consistently make returns from the Crypto market by using Dollar Cost Averaging](https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/crypto-dca?s=w) + +&#x200B; + +**Data:** All the data used in the analysis [**can be found here**](https://rows.com/market-sentiment/my-spreadsheets/untitled-spreadsheet-3-7fuGkqeJVN8gkvISEezt43/live) *(it’s a treasure-trove of information IMO as you can filter based on the rank, price, market cap - however you like it. All I ask is that if you can find a better strategy based on this data, do let us all know!)* + +&#x200B; + +**Footnotes** + +\[1\] The [word](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/moonshot) itself is derived from the Apollo 11 spaceflight project and is often used to classify something that seems almost impossible. + +\[2\] Extremely small coins are more likely to face liquidity issues, consolidated ownerships, and rug pulls. + +\[3\] For comparison, the top 10 companies in S&P 500 only contribute <30% of the index and that itself is considered to be extremely skewed by some analysts. + +\[4\] An equal-weighted index is where we invest equally regardless of the market cap of the crypto. All the famous indices like S&P500 are market cap-weighted - i.e, bigger companies get a bigger chunk of your investment + +\[5\] I mean the 2,000% return is no joke → S&P 500 barely gave a 100% return over the same period. It’s all relative, eh! + +\[6\] [Garbage in, garbage out](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +https://www.ft.com/content/ba5ab83c-3a84-4544-8b7f-3158b358ef69 + +>Bill Ackman, the hedge fund billionaire, has bought a $1.1bn stake in Netflix as he seeks to capitalise on a sharp sell-off that has almost halved the streaming company’s market value in the past few months. + +>Pershing Square, Ackman’s investment group, has bought 3.1m shares of Netflix in recent days, making him a top-20 shareholder in the company, according to a letter to investors. At the current share price of $359.70, this equates to a stake of $1.1bn. + +>“Many of our best investments have emerged when other investors, whose time horizons are short term, discard great companies at prices that look extraordinarily attractive when one has a long-term horizon”, Ackman wrote. + +>Netflix’s stock price has dropped more than 40 per cent from an October peak of about $700 per share. The stock sold off more than 20 per cent on Friday after the company warned subscriber growth would slow substantially in the first three months of 2022. +What type of loan deals are you guys getting? + +I just locked in 1.36 million 30yr fixed 2.99% / 3.001APR for an owner occupied 4plex. No points, about 1800 in loan fees + another 2k in title/appraisal/transfer fees. + +Dropped my old loan of 4.125% payment from 6688 to just over 5700 on the new one. + +Not sure what I am going to do with another 1000 a month. Probably start saving up for the next property. +Hi all, + +I'm wondering if the cost of charging an electric vehicle at home is cost effective vs equivelent monthly petrol/diesel spend? With the energy price cap increasing, is it getting close to the point where it is no longer cost efficient to own an electric vehicle? I'm specifically referring to charging costs here, not purchase costs. +I see posts with people my age (\~25) on 90k+/year and at least 100k saved or getting consequential inheritances. I'm 24, from a poor family that lives overseas, so on my own, well with my partner. I'm on 65k working ridiculous hours (but love my job), 10k saved. + +Not studying, just working, spending time with partner, playing WoW, sleeping. I do want to start my own business or buy an investment property at some point but idk I feel like I'm so behind on people my age. + +I'm sure a lot of people are exaggerating on their posts or even talking shit but I'm also sure some of them are true +I'm going to get straight to the point: I, like many of you, did not appreciate the SEC video mocking my decision to invest my hard-earned money in GameStop. But guess what? A lot of institutions also invested in GME because they see, like we do, the potential upside. Even discounting the short squeeze (which is very much in play, see the thousands of MSM hit pieces for reference), the upside is huge, akin to buying Apple in the 70s. + +So after Windows 11 updated this morning, I accidentally hovered over the widget on the side of my taskbar and it brought up GME ticker! Thx Microsoft for tracking my online activity! I got curious and clicked it, and was brought to [Microsoft's stocks page](https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money). In Edge. I felt dirty. + +However, I immediately looked up GME to see the data, and was clicking on the various tabs, and then I got to the 'Investors' tab, which I found interesting. + +We all know the big boys are holding the lion's share of, well, shares. Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Geode Capital, BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, etc + +I did notice, however, that many smaller institutions are buying in post sneeze. As if they see what we see: + +# A short squeeze wrapped in an incredibly deep fucking value play. + +So without further a-do, I present to you the DFV institutions: + +&#x200B; + +[Look at them!!!](https://preview.redd.it/l8uynl1dxe391.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=2563d0565d4a75a338e6951b76b5a7a6eb167592) + +Here's the actual table I compiled, in case you can't see them clearly in the picture above : + +[Institutions buying GME post-sneeze](https://preview.redd.it/yia0z2vuxe391.jpg?width=1058&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e8aa8a4fc00ea5a4dfa05979af32e7700159dde) + +All of these bought GME post-Sneeze. Some of them already had some shares and added, others were new investors in the stock. + +&#x200B; + +[Twin Tree Management started buying in Q3 21, and added in Q4 21 and Q1 22. They currently hold 143,026 shares worth 23.82 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/7c17zic2ye391.jpg?width=1235&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3bc38fe9d73550b100a02b329103127520b06e0) + +[Retirement Systems of Alabama rocks my socks so hard. They bought 80k shares in Q3 21, then lightly added in Q4 21 and Q1 22. They currently hold 81,146 shares worth 13.52 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/ddv6iv3cye391.jpg?width=1238&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=68cf5977a9a328eea0e27ae5b0bc5547875e64e1) + +[Anson Funds Management LP is a new buyer. They bought 62,470 shares in Q1 22, which they currently hold, worth 10.41 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/aydagc3nye391.jpg?width=1234&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb2e8c740c0034e763b26167703b64864fd981bf) + +[State of Wisconsin Investment Board always dabbled, but seriously increased their holding in Q1 22, by 649.33&#37;. They currently hold 58,530 shares worth 9.75 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/p0s32fvvye391.jpg?width=1228&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f2771ce8b62b3bbd3ef16720c23c09147c5f70f5) + +[Mutual of America Capital Management just went HAM in Q3 21, increasing their holding by 593.84&#37;. They currently hold 56,392 shares worth 9.39 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/yblf8vh7ze391.jpg?width=1233&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef2ed1ddd590d9e8d3bf81b4eb4e35a3b3df643f) + +[Coatue Management is a new investor. They bought 54,697 shares in Q1 22, which they currently hold, worth 9.11 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/fgrr8gejze391.jpg?width=1235&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be268c0032365d7a518805843006723769b73bb9) + +[Fairbanks Capital Management has been holding and adding GME for some time, and in Q1 22 they increased their position by 92.37&#37;. They currently hold 47,900 shares worth 7.98 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/5terkbaqze391.jpg?width=1231&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1713f88647b383f61955c66c0315f741a2e6656) + +[Amalgamated Financial Corp is another new Q1 22 buyer. They currently hold 46,850 shares worth 7.8 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/kjah2i210f391.jpg?width=1237&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd2566ecabb5442bc5af387595b1b5f2bf57e68d) + +[Eaton Vance is yet another new Q1 22 buyer. They currently hold 21,006 shares worth 3.5 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/glz7cnoo0f391.jpg?width=1234&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4191411c55f6f2835b2f8d113e132b9be316adb1) + +[Teacher Retirement System of Texas know what's up. They first bought in Q1 21 and kept buying the dip! They currently own 13,477 shares worth 2.25 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/jhvwmh390f391.jpg?width=1230&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1cf78a2f698ed7e715989cfde9560f73a944e5f5) + +[Algert Global LLC bought GME in Q3 21, then more than doubled their position, by 138.09&#37;, in Q1 22. They currently hold 13,288 shares worth 2.21 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/lus98bdx0f391.jpg?width=1232&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f854146abcbd2e6b7cb6c2d95160f989112da1a6) + +[FFCM LLC bought GME in Q3 21, then almost doubled their position, by 90.58&#37;, in Q1 22. They currently hold 7,002 shares worth 1.17 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/wsr0qrmb1f391.jpg?width=1216&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=364e42e7a80f643f0e9eae39d02467f98d0175c5) + +[Scotiabank also bought GME in Q3 21, then increased their position in Q1 22. They currently hold 5,889 shares worth 0.98 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/yhqpicfj1f391.jpg?width=1209&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c15e7b04e6b372e1bdebceddd23e1317ce79034) + +[Penserra Capital Management first bought in Q2 21 then dramatically increased their position in Q1 22, by 1,373.78&#37; ! They currently own 4,215 shares worth 0.7 Million $](https://preview.redd.it/u7hml9kp1f391.jpg?width=1216&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=584e7b47a1a7552deb27b4ad346a0f9c3f885418) + +Anyway, you get the gist. + +The dramatic increases I am seeing in institutional investments in Q4 21 and Q1 22 are actually a good indicator that may point to things coalescing soon! + +In any case, I was zen months ago, and so should you. The SEC is scrambling. The hedge funds are shitting their pants. The investment banks are bracing for impact. + +Before I end this post, I want to leave you with this: + +[Look at these motherfuckers. Even Motley Fucking Jokers know what's coming.](https://preview.redd.it/v97vc2lv2f391.jpg?width=1212&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76736313fdb01dd82c53972f6b437feaa1fa3425) + +TLDR: Institutions are seeing what we are seeing. They are investing in GameStop for the short squeeze and for the long-term value play. Shit, they may even be reading our DD! Shorts R Fuk. MOASS is tomorrow. +Sorry, I’m newb to finance. I just recently started maxing out my 401k since my new employer matches it up to the IRS limit and I know a lot of employers don’t do that so I want to take advantage of it. But with the stock market tanking, my 401k total amount is lower than what I started with this year. I feel like I’m just going to lose the money I put in and wonder if it’s safer to hold onto it in a savings account. But I guess my 401k will decrease whether I put in money or not. + +Any advice for a newb is greatly appreciated! + +Edit: wowwww I wasn’t ready for this to explode! Thank you guys for all the advice! Also, SORRY but I miswrote! My employer matches HALF UP TO to the IRS limit so if I contribute 20,500 for the year (which I think is the irs limit), they’ll contribute half of that. Sorry for misleading! Still is pretty good I think though! I work in tech as a content strategist if anyone is curious! + +You guys are seriously amazing! Thank you!!! +All my life, I have always been broke. Three months ago, I received $10,000 and it totally made a big difference in my life. I didn't touch the money. It's still in my savings account and I hope it stays there longer. Anyway, one thing I notice is that...money doesn't seem so important to me anymore now that I feel a little secure. Maybe it's a good thing but I remember that when I was so broke, I was so grateful...with every meal, every gift, every little thing I have day to day. Now, it's just meh...but a good kind of meh for sure. I don't know what I want to say. I'm all over the place. But maybe I want to know more about this phenomenon I'm experiencing just out of curiosity and so I would know how to motivate myself more. Do you know money psych theories and articles that I could read? Thank you. +Well. It finally happened. After listening to y’all last year around this time, I invested $1,000. After making gains, selling and investing more but not adding more to my initial investment, I finally made $22,000. Enough to pay off my debt. I couldn’t have done it without this subreddit and everyone doing the DD for me haha. + +Thank you all 🚀🚀 +# Intro + +Yesterday, somebody in the comments of some thread asked for an ELI5 on why US bond rates matter and what their relationship is with markets and economies. What I wrote ended up being more like an ELI12, and also ended up being quite long; in any case, I have decided to modify it a bit and turn it into its own post. + +# What are bonds + +First, an introduction on what bonds actually are. + +Simply put, a bond is the "asset side" of governmental or corporate debt. When a government or corporation borrows money, the borrower now holds a liability, and the lender holds an asset, which is expected to return them their original investment (the money they lent) plus profit (interest) at some later date. A bond is basically a token that says some government or company owes you some amount of principal by some date known as the maturity date (usually 3 months to 30 years, depending on the type of bond), plus interest. Because bonds are a tokenization of debt, they can be easily traded in a liquid, open market, just like stocks. This means that the original lender does not need to be the person who is repaid when the bond matures; the repayment and interest simply goes to whomever holds the bond at the time. + +There are two main types of bonds: corporate bonds, and government bonds. + +Corporate bonds are the main way companies raise money, apart from selling shares. + +Government bonds are how the government raises money to cover budget deficits (ie: when the government spends more than they have the tax revenue to spend, they borrow the remainder by selling bonds to whomever will buy them). If nobody is buying the government bonds, the interest will go up organically due to supply and demand until people are willing to buy them. Government bonds are often known as **treasuries**, and are broken down into three categories: treasury bills (short-term maturity), treasury notes (mid-term maturity), and treasury bonds (long-term maturity). + +One of the main buyers of US government bonds is the Federal Reserve, which is the name of America's central bank. This is the entity that is able to actually print US dollars. Everyone has heard of things like how the US government recently ran huge deficits due to "stimulus spending", and that it printed the money it needed for that spending. Well, this is a slightly inaccurate picture of how it works. The government chooses fiscal policy, which means they build the budget and they set the tax rates. They are the ones who choose to overspend and run a deficit. However, they don't choose monetary policy: they cannot print money. This power was delegated by congress to the Federal Reserve over 100 years ago. + +So, when the government runs a deficit, they sell bonds to borrow the money. If the FED chooses to, it can print a whole bunch of money and then lend that money to the government (ie: the taxpayer) by buying the government bonds with it. That is how newly printed money actually gets into the economy: the FED prints it and then lends it out to companies and to the government by buying corporate and government bonds. When the FED buys a bunch of treasuries (government bonds), it is really lending out freshly-printed cash to the American people (since the government's liabilities are really the taxpayers' liabilities), and the people then owe that money, with interest, back to the FED by the time the treasury matures. + +When the FED decides to buy up the government's bonds in order to lend to the taxpayers the money that congress is spending, they are also putting downward pressure on the bond interest rate. This is because, if the FED decided *not* to lend a bunch of money to the government to cover its deficits, the bond interest would organically rise through supply & demand until other buyers (individuals, companies, foreign investors, whatever) are willing to buy those bonds. + +So, when the FED wants to keep bond interest low, they achieve this indirectly by creating what is basically artificial demand for US bonds by buying a ton of them with money that they printed at no cost to themselves. Due to how supply & demand works with debt, the more demand there is for bonds, the lower the interest those bonds offer. + +So, the Federal Reserve executes its main task of managing the US bond rate by choosing how much government debt it buys. If they want bond rates to go up, they will print less cash and buy fewer bonds. If they want it to go down, they will print more cash and buy more bonds. + +The FED is essentially a whale with the power to print money, who uses said printed money to manipulate the US bond market, ostensibly for the good of everybody. + +# The risk-free rate + +The interest rate on American government bonds is considered one of the most important variables in the American (and even worldwide) economy. This is because the American gov is considered the de-facto safest borrower of all borrowers in the world. In other words, if I buy an American government bond, I am lending my money to the entity that is considered to have the smallest risk of defaulting in the world (maybe this is arguable, but regardless this is a premise that is at the core of the world economy; what's important is that people believe it). + +There is a concept in economics called the "risk-free rate". This is the interest you can get for lending your money to a 0-risk borrower, and should logically be the lowest interest rate you see anywhere in that economy. Of course, there is always technically some risk when you lend money, so the risk-free rate is technically imaginary. However, in practice, just about everybody considers the US bond rate (specifically, treasury bills, the US bond with the shortest maturity) to be the risk-free rate, as the risk is considered to be so low as to be negligible. + +So, if buying American gov bonds is the safest way to lend money, it means that every single other form of loan must pay higher interest. Why? Because every other borrower is considered higher risk, and for me as a lender, I will not accept less interest for greater risk. So, if American bond interest goes up, all other loan interest (corporate bonds, bank loans, mortgages, credit cards, whatever) will organically go up, because everything must pay greater interest than American bonds to compensate for greater risk. This is simply a matter of supply & demand mechanics. + +So, American bond interest is kind of like the baseline or the "sea level" for all interest rates in the entire economy. This even stretches to other countries, because anyone can buy a bond from the US gov, and they are considered the safest borrower in the world, so nobody will ever lend money to anybody else unless they are compensated with greater interest than US bond interest. + +# The cost of capital + +So, if US bond rates go up, and therefore all interest in the economy goes up, that means money itself has gotten more expensive. Loan interest is literally just the cost of money (known as the cost of capital). The lesser the interest, the cheaper it is for me to acquire money right now. When you realize that the entire world runs mainly on debt, it becomes clear how significant this phenomenon is. + +So, when US bond rates go up, the price of capital itself goes up. That means it becomes more costly for businesses to raise money, more costly to mortgage a house, more costly to open a line of credit to buy investments, more costly to spend with credit cards, more costly to use leverage in securities markets, etc. + +This means that growth goes down, spending goes down, wages go down, etc. It also means the prices of goods go down (or at least climb slower), because people aren't willing to pay as much, since capital itself is more expensive to acquire. + +What happens when prices go down? Well, that's a reduction in inflation. So, when inflation is getting too high, the FED (central bank) will make bond interest go up to apply recessive forces on the economy to curb said inflation. + +If inflation is low, the FED might reduce bond interest in order to make the cost of capital lower to juice the economy, prop up securities markets, and incentivize growth. Too much growth though, and we end up with inflation again, meaning the FED might increase rates again. This causes a sort of wave-like dance between bond rates and the heat of the economy. + +So, the FED influences bond rates ostensibly to keep the economy balanced: not too hot and inflationary (can be very bad) and not too cold and deflationary (also can be very bad). + +It is also worth noting that the FED wields a couple other levers it can use to increase or decrease the cost of capital (ie: the general interest rates in the economy) that are separate from bond rates. They can change the reserve requirements of banks (what percentage of total assets a bank must hold in reserve). If banks need to hold more in reserve, then they have less liquid money to lend out, so the supply of capital goes down, so market interest (cost of capital) rises. Also, the FED can change the discount rate, which is the amount of interest they charge banks for short-term loans (24 hours or less) from the FED itself. When these rates go up, banks are disincentivized from borrowing from the FED, so the banks end up with less liquid capital, which means they need to be more conservative about the loans they themselves give out, which makes the supply of capital go down and thus the cost of capital go up. + +# What does this mean for markets? + +When bond rates go up, most investment markets go down. Why? Well, the higher bond rates go, the more I can make by investing in bonds, without the risk going up. So, as bond rates go up, it becomes more and more attractive to move my wealth out of riskier markets like stocks and into what is considered the safest investment market in the world: US bonds. Since rates going up means I get greater returns on my bond investments, but the risk doesn't change, US gov bonds become more and more sensible to an investor as the rates increase. + +Of course, bonds rates going up a smidgen doesn't actually suddenly make bonds a strategically more sound investment than riskier things like stocks. In fact, US bond rates have been so comically low for so long that it hasn't made much sense to buy bonds in years (decades, really). However, when people hear that the FED is going to increase bond rates, they think "bond rates going up means people will sell stocks to buy bonds, so I better sell now to front-run that", which is the main thing that *actually* causes stocks to fall when bond rates increase. + +How crypto will fare with increasing bond rates is unknown, because rates have been declining ever since BTC was born, until very recently. Personally, I imagine crypto will follow stocks down if rates go up too much, but nobody knows for sure. + +# Some historical context + +US bond rates hit an ATH in 1981 around 15% (edit: some sources seem to say 20%; unsure which is correct). Unsurprisingly, the stock market hit a low at the same time (like I said before, the orthodox narrative is that there is an inverse relationship between bond rates and most securities markets). Think about how ridiculous 15% bond rates are. That would mean you could buy what is definitionally the safest investment available and get 15% returns each year. By contrast, the safest stock ETFs (still way riskier than US bonds) average like 7% a year. + +So, in the 80s, you could double your money every 5 years while accepting what is usually considered 0 risk. Ever wonder why boomers seemed to get wealthy so easily? This is one of the reasons. + +Since the ATH in 1981, the treasury bond rate has fallen continuously until Covid hit, at which point it pivoted at a low of about 0.5%. Since then, it has been going back up, but is still extremely low, at around 1.5%. + +Since bond rates going down means stocks go up (at least, this is a very popular narrative, though some disagree), the stock market has been in a tremendous and arguably unnatural bull run for about 40 years, only pausing twice very briefly for "corrections" circa 1999 and 2008. + +Since US bond rates have gotten so close to 0%, they can't really lower them any further without going negative (which is actually a thing, and some countries are trying negative interest now. This is an extremely weird rabbit hole that nobody really knows the true consequences of yet. Imagine getting paid to borrow money. Several countries have been experimenting with this over the last 7 years, and a few I believe for even longer). The chair of the FED (Jerome Powell) said a few months back that they have no intention of going to negative interest rates, so that means these past 40 years of propping up markets by reducing bond rates has probably come to an end. + +You could think of the continuous lowering of rates for the last 40 years as the FED spending its ammunition to prop up markets and propel economic growth, but now that rates are barely above 0% and the FED isn't willing to go negative, they are out of ammo. Not only are they out of ammo when it comes to lowering the rates, but one might also argue they are also currently incentivized to *increase* rates to combat rising inflation. + +This is why there is fear. The FED has been sticking its hands in for 40 years to prop up markets, and now it seems they are going to stop, at least for now. + +I hope this ~~ELI5~~ ~~ELI12~~ ELI-an-Intro-to-Econ student about why US gov bond rates are such an important concept for understanding global economics has been enlightening! +> It is, without exaggeration, one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read. And I read Zero Hedge. + +And that was from Paul Krugman's latest Op-Ed. [Source](http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/07/here-come-the-employment-truthers/). + +This is not the first time I've gotten this impression maybe it was from another economist or someone prominent in the economics/finance field and maybe even perhaps here on reddit. But why isn't Zerohedge well-liked or even liked at all? + +I am just merely curious. + + +Hello all, today I present to you a Toronto-based company in the form of Converge Technology Solutions. Before I get started, I just wanted to bring to light a type of bias that may show prevalence. If you have heard of this company before and are already thinking of investing, read the definition of confirmation bias: “tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.” Read through the next paragraphs with a neutral mind, free from bias, I present a devil’s advocate argument at the end to subside the rest of the information. Confirmation bias is definitely prevalent on any subreddit, so be careful! + +**Who is Converge Technology Solutions?** + +Best represented by their own description: + +Converge Technology Solutions Corp. is a North American Hybrid IT Solution Provider focused on delivering industry leading solutions and services. Converge’s regional sales and services organizations deliver advanced analytics, cloud, cybersecurity, and managed services offerings to clients across various industries. + +Converge supports these solutions with talent expertise and digital infrastructure offerings across all major IT vendors in the marketplace. This multi-faceted approach enables Converge to address the unique business and technology requirements for all clients in the public and private sectors. + +The company has 71, not to be confused later with 17, Strategic Alliances with software, hardware and general programs that are offered by companies around the globe. Some include: Gold Microsoft Partner, Titanium Dell Technologies Partner, and Advanced Amazon Web Services Partner. + +**Traded on:** + +1. TSX Venture Exchange: CTS.V +2. OTCQX (Highest OTC exchange): CTSDF +3. Frankfurt Stock Exchange: 0ZB + +**Family of Converge Technology Solutions** + +Since October 2017, CTS has acquired 17 companies. This is huge, CTS’s operation seems to be acquiring different IT companies focusing in on Cloud, Cybersecurity, Digital Infrastructure, etc. and forming the companies into an arm of CTS for offering leading-tech solutions in the software industry: + +1. **Corus360** – Cloud, Dad Center, Talent Solutions +2. **Norther** **Micro** – AI & Advanced Analytics, Cybersecurity, Cloud & Edge computing +3. **Becker**\-**Carroll** – Strategy & Planning, Design +4. **KeyInfo** – Computing, Storage & Networking solutions +5. **BlueChipTek** – Hybrid Cloud, Global Logistics, Full Rack Integration +6. **Light** **House** **Computer** **Services** – Analytics, Hybrid Cloud, Infrastructure, Security +7. **SIS** – Managed Cloud, IaaS, Data Protection +8. **NSI** – Data Center, Cloud Security, Enterprise Mobility Solutions +9. **EssexTec** – Cloud, Cognitive, Cyber Security +10. **DataTrend** – Data Center, Cloud +11. **VSS** – Managed Services, Portfolio Management & Services +12. **PCD** – Virtualization & Cloud, BC/DR, Enterprise Architecture +13. **Unique** **Digital** – Infrastructure Implementation & Support +14. **Workgroup** **Connections** – Cloud, Software Development, Licensing, Consulting +15. **Vivvo** – Identity Management, Vivvo Trust Platform +16. **Vicom** – Full-service Multi-cloud infrastructure +17. **CarpeDatum** – Analytics, AI, Performance Management + +**Public Recurring Revenues for each Subsidiary;** + +Found only 6 of their 17 acquisitions: + +1. **EssexTec** – $52 Million +2. **VSS** – $80 million (USD) +3. **Unique** **Digital** – $70 million +4. **Workgroup** **Connections** – $14.7 Million +5. **Vivvo** – $1.85 Million +6. **CarpeDatum** – $6.7 Million + +These acquisitions of substantial revenues will add to the portfolio of CTS; obviously, there are other financial aspects to consider such as EBITDA, Goodwill (synergy, etc.) of each transaction to see if it adds benefits. Other considerations, qualitatively, would be to look at each of the company’s specialty and understand that each one of these 17 acquisitions brings in management experience, growth to the global network, and brand extension. Each one of these acquisitions will feature “A Converge Company” underneath their logo to show their presence within the broader network! + +More info on what each of these companies do can be found here: [https://convergetp.com/portfolio-of-companies/](https://convergetp.com/portfolio-of-companies/) + +**Current Financials:** + +All data is from their most recent filing of 9-months ended September 30, 2020: + +1. **Revenue:** + 1. 39% Increase to $659,242,000 from $473,090,000 (Dec31,2019). + 1. Mostly attributed to by the acquisitions of DataTrend, EssexTec, VSS, and PCD. + 2. Allocation of Revenue: + 1. Where does CTS do most of it’s business? + 2. **Banking & Financial Services** – 21% (Prior Year – 19%) + 3. **Technology** **Companies** – 19% (Prior Year – 17%) + 4. **Government** **Contracts** – 19% (Prior Year – 15%) + 5. **Healthcare** – 16% (Prior Year – 25%) + 6. **Other** – 25% (Prior Year – 24%) +2. **Gross Profit:** + 1. 50% increase to $162,079,000 from $108,234,000 (Dec31,2019). + 1. Increased drastically due to management’s priority to sell high-margin software and cloud services to maximize net income. +3. **Market Capitalization (As of 1/15/2020)** + 1. CAD$ = 870.496M + 2. Price: 6.31. + 3. Outstanding Shares – 168,144,125 (as of 1/15/2021) + 1. As of 9/30/2020 – Approx. 130,000,000. - Increase of almost 40M shares. + 2. This will be addressed in the “Devil’s Advocate” Section. + +**Future Opportunities & Growth** + +As we all know, we as a collective, are in the midst of a global pandemic with most countries currently in lockdown and implementing stay-at-home orders. This improves the case for work-from-home (WFH) becoming more prevalent. This is one of the key growth drivers for Converge Technology Solutions and will continue to be as large companies around the globe have already mentioned to their employees that in the future WFH will be more flexible and even in some cases companies will have closed their offices as they see their efficiency can be matched by working remotely. The recent acquisitions, and the planned acquisitions ahead will drive revenues and bring qualitative benefits for years to come. + +**TSX Up-listing** + +As I previously mentioned, Converge Technology Solutions is currently traded on the TSX Venture Exchange which in basic terms is the junior exchange to the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). + +In a news release on November 19th, 2020 the company stated that it has received conditional approval from the TSX to graduate from the TSXV to list the company’s common shares on the TSX. The final approval of the TSX listing is subject to Converge Fulfilling certain standard and customary conditions required by the TSX on or before February 17th 2021. CTS is very confident it will satisfy all the conditions and further communicate to investors about the process. + +This is a large opportunity to take advantage of as institutional investors may start to get on-board with the up-listing as 0.74% of all outstanding shares are being held by institutions. Similarly, insiders hold a relatively high % of outstanding shares at 15.47%. + +Speculation: With the up-listing to the TSX, this may show further opportunity to cross-list their security on any US-exchanges such as NASDAQ, NYSE, etc. + +**Devil’s Advocate** + +In order to subside all the positive information above, I must bring to light something that may concern others moving forward. This topic has to do with **Dilution** and the increasing number of common shares over the past year or so. Public offerings (closing date) include: + +1. **February 20, 2020** – Approx. 6,000,000 shares. +2. **July 31, 2020** – Approx. 10,800,000 shares. + 1. Proceeds: $17.5 million. +3. **September 30, 2020** – Approx. 14,650,000 shares. + 1. Proceeds: $30.0 million. +4. **January 15, 2020** – Approx. 17,825,000 shares. + 1. Proceeds: $86 million. + +In a previous section above, I highlighted the increase in common shares within the Financials section. The company continues to publicly offer shares in order to raise capital to fund its acquisitions. This allows the company to gain cash in order to fulfill its obligations; however, investors may be torn whether to invest or not because when they publicly offer their shares to underwriters, they list a price well below the current market price and this causes people to panic or even scare potential investors away. The increase in the common shares dilutes each individual share so it decreases in value proportionately to how many shares were offered. + +**Summary** + +All in all, with the presented information above, Converge Technology Solutions as a company is a huge buying opportunity for investors to take advantage of, the share price has been on an upward trajectory for the past year and I believe this will continue with the future catalysts of TSX up-listing and future acquisitions. Dilution remains present in the eyes of investors but it’s definitely a growing pain; the funds are actively being used to grow the business and the stock price has never been set back with the constant public offerings. Converge’s growing family network of 17 companies will continue to grow in the near and far future. + +**Disclosure** + +To be fully transparent, I am an active investor in CTS.V on the TSXV. I will not disclose how many shares or the share price in which I acquired my shares but know that I have been adding to my position on dips for the past month, the dips that happened this week I took advantage of and added to my positions confidently. + +Thanks for reading! I really enjoy understanding companies in-depth and being passionate about what I am invested in so know that this post was created out of sheer passion and not for any other gains! Please provide me some feedback on what to include/not to include in my future DD posts, this is my second DD post so check out my profile for the first one! <3 +I found this gem of a blogpost( circa. 2011) from Prof TV Rao, who has made a detailed account on how his property was illegally registered and everything which happened subsequently. He has posted many updated in the comments section upto 2019. Its a long read, but nothing compared to the lengths to which the Prof has gone to get his property back. + +I would make this blog mandatory reading for anyone who is planning to invest in real estate. We always hear anecdotal stories of how so and so had a tough time dealing with the system . For the first time in years, I am finding a detailed post which goes into great depth on what all can go wrong with RE. + + [T.V. Rao Blogs: Corruption and Land Grabbing (tvraoblogs.blogspot.com)](http://tvraoblogs.blogspot.com/2011/08/corruption-and-land-grabbing.html) +Between work and travel I was rarely home and its always just been a place to recharge. Now with the pandemic and spending much more time at home I'm starting to be more appreciative of things I've previously never had the time to enjoy while also noticing other things I've been overlooking. For example, I'm really enjoying how scenic and walkable my neighborhood is now that I have time to go for walks and also appreciating the the kitchen renovation I did a few years back which I rarely used until now. On the flip side, even with a house cleaner there's a lot of places that could really use a deep cleaning or even just repainting / updating. + +What are the things you are starting to appreciate now that you are home and what are the areas that you'll be looking to improve to increase your qualify of life while hunkering down at home? +While this forum does allow discussion of alt-coins, alt-eths and legacy coins there has been an excessive number of ETC posts which drown other more relevant posts. In a effort to declutter the sub please post new etc-related threads here instead. +I have a few ETH miners running and I'm basically at a break even point with the cost of electric to ETH price. I haven't had the time to keep up with the latest ETH news. If someone could bring me up to speed that would be awesome! Should I just shut my miners down. + +Thanks in advance. +Hey all, hopefully this is alright to post here as we are looking for any advice we can get. + +My partner and I settled on our first house recently and upon moving in and tidying up the place we have found a ton of things that our building inspector missed including termites, extensive black mould in the walls, rotten beams and a number of leaking pipes causing wood rot to name a few. + +None of this was on the building and pest report that we had gotten during the purchasing process and had we known what we know now the offer we made on the place would have been significantly lower or we would have just passed on the place. + +This report was also used when we applied for home insurance as we were lead to believe the house itself was in good condition based on our walkthroughs and the building and pest report. We spoke with our insurer today who advised they will be cancelling our insurance policy in 10 days time as the property does not meet the "good condition" clause in the PDS. This clause states that pretty much none of the issues mentioned above are present in the house. + +I guess my questions are has anyone been in a similar position where you have disclosed everything you were aware of to the insurer but were relying on a shoddy building and pest report just to have your insurer turn around and cancel it on you without any recourse? + +Ultimately we just want to place to be insured and we are tossing up whether an AFCA complaint against the insurer would be worthwhile + +Thanks in advance for any feedback and happy new year! + +Cheers +**E: As of 10:28 AM EDT, a concerned redditor has reached out. Take that with what you will.** + +**E2: It seems the post was removed by Reddit due to PII. However, I am choosing to leave this post up for two reasons. The first is to remind people Citadel/Kenneth Cordele Griffin did, in fact, send out cease and desist letters. The second is because Kenneth Cordele Griffin did, in fact, commit perjury.** + +*I have removed the links to posts I originally included for the safety of those that made those posts in case Kenneth Cordele Griffin decides to address this post or myself.* + +The recent removal of a post by Reddit regarding the plane being flown with the words “KEN GRIFFIN LIED UNDER OATH” is very telling and the absolute worst thing you could do against the very party responsible for the banner, apes. + +If Kenneth Cordele Griffin truly closed his short position on GME there would have been no serious action taken against by either himself or his firm regarding a flying statement (or any previous time a cease and desist order was given, a post was removed, or an account was banned). *\[As pointed out, the banners were in regards to the hearing and not the closing of positions. However, it’s a safe assumption that Kenneth Cordele Griffin also lied about closing his short positions based on the hearing.\]* A simple denial would have sufficed if it wasn’t an issue for him and his business. This has been theorized countless times but his actions are almost confessions that we’re right. Did we forget about the recent House Committee on Financial Services report showing Robinhood’s conversation with Citadel (bottom of page 47) leading up to the sneeze? + +>k. Robinhood and Citadel Securities engaged in “blunt” negotiations the night before the trading restrictions to lower the PFOF rates Robinhood was charging CitadelSecurities. + +It doesn't specify negotiations about restricting the buy side of the trade but it **HAS** to have come up. There's no possible way it wasn't mentioned. + +People with power usually don’t react heavily towards something that’s factually wrong since, as mentioned earlier, a denial is all they really need. What happens when they catch wind of something potentially damaging on this big a scale? Any thriving business performs damage control. Whether that business is ethically sound or not does not matter at the moment. Damage control is a signal of repair and preemptive action is necessary when there’s a high risk of actual damage to follow if left unattended. + +To bring the point home, Kenneth Cordele Griffin has responded on several occasions regarding people publicizing his perjury because it’s true. It would’ve been left alone all those times if it wasn’t the case. If this post gets removed or if I get banned you’ll know why. Deuces. +First off, the collapse of Luna caught the attention of regulators around the globe, especially in the USA. Stable coin regulation is coming and there is nothing anyone can do about it. I don’t actually think this is a bad thing to prevent future meltdowns (full audit of tether pls). + +So what does this c#ck head do…….creates Luna 2.0. This is a regulators wet dream. The optics on this whole thing are so incredibly bad. + +To ALL of the exchanges out there who listed this token……you fucked up. + +Not only do the regulators have hard on for flogs like Do Kwon, but you are in their crosshairs even more now. Exchanges literally listed the exit pump token for Do Kwon’s initial ponzi. Utterly psychotic. Like how can they be so stupid. + +Exchanges should have denied the listing of Luna 2.0. + +This is why we are so far away from full scale adoption. It’s bullshit like this and maybe it’s time for the regs to come in and clean this bullshit up. A lot of people lost a lot of money in the last couple of weeks, Do Kwon is causing more and more damage every day he is active in the crypto asset class. +This is not a post-COVID 19 thing. Pretty much every broker who has contacted me for properties I have available say that they want 2% brokerage. + +Until last year I have never used online platforms to advertise my available properties, and every broker I have availed the services of offline has taken 1% brokerage. + +Is this just a case of brokers looking to make more from unwitting/first time sellers? +My plan is to sell a couple 125P 9/17. I have never sold an options contract I have not already owned. Basically, I just want to know what to expect being short on a put position. I have the cash to handle being assigned, but considering I have never been short before, I don’t know what that process looks like. Thanks for the feedback in advance. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Preface. Not sure whether to flair legit, dumbfuck, yolo or crystal ball gazing (mods help) but do want all types of answers. + +The missus’ boyfriend asked me this during their coitus last night and the idea kept me up all night. I’m sure we are all aware of the AusFinance version of long term investing but has anyone given any thought to their long term goals. + +Personally I am gazing of 7 digit wealth by age 40, and right now I believe there will be very minimal etf usage (most likely ARK products if any) but thinking about the rest of the portfolio such as six plus figures in Z1P, BRN and NVX seems questionable. + +Have you thought about your long term plans and goals? What are they? Will these goals see you change sub? Do you have a portfolio percentage for aus v international markets? +Everyone knows people in USA tend to recommend Toyota Corola or Honda Civic, but there don’t seem to be a lot of services and cheap parts for these brands here in Europe. + +What is the alternative then for someone who wants a cheap frugal reliable second hand car in Europe. Something that gets you from point A to point B, is efficient and doesn’t break your bank. + +Is it Renault Clio, VW Polo, a Skoda, maybe Dacia? What brands do you prefer and why? Discuss. + +Edit: Budget up to 4000 eur for example for a 2012-2018 car with up to 150.000 km. +I became a quant trader 1.5 years ago, and since the beginning of my tenure, I have never used any "game-theoretic" concepts in my research. However, I interviewed many prop shops (JS, SIG, etc.); most interviews were game-theory-centered. I am curious whether anyone uses these concepts or apply a poker-like mentality to the market? +I do believe their cards information gets leaked very frequently, from what I read and experienced. +I got a $200 card a while ago as a gift which I was planning to use for Christmas gifts... got it, put it in my drawer and I live totally alone, no one saw the card, never used it online. +then I decided to use the gift card and found out my balance is 0$,,, logged into their website and found out someone used it for ApplePay +been trying to reach Customer service for 2 days but they do not pick up. +just a joke of a company do not waste your money and time with them +On top of likely slashing billions off of its valuation, do you guys think the changing sentiment towards Airbnb has changed the outlook for the company in general? +I asked if they were a fiduciary and they started stuttering. Said my employer was or something like that but that I will pay fees from my paycheck to American Funds manager who will pay a portion on if it to him, my agent at primerica. I was never told what this fee would be. Should I know at this point in the process? + +I wasn’t expecting HIM to be my agent. I scheduled an appt with a woman but when I got there was told she’d given my case to him bc she’s swamped and they all help each other. + +Was offered a PT job and invited to an informational on Saturday. + +I was hoping before I decided how much to contribute, we’d do a financial analysis. I brought all of my paperwork for it. But it was the guy’s anniversary and he asked if we could do the analysis later, and invited to check both me and my partner’s financials. Is it strange that I picked a monthly contribution without him analyzing my finances? + +Is it possible to call when they open at 9 and withdraw or withhold my application (he’s supposed to submit it today) until I’m aware of the fees and have had my finances evaluated? + +Edit: how do I go about cancelling or withdrawing my application? Do I say I am having reservations and would like to wait before submitting my reply? Should I add until I’ve had a financial analysis and better understand my personal spending habits and what I can safely contribute etc? Or how do I go about leaving? + +Edit: Thank you to everyone who replied and gave me advice ❤️ After reading the early comments, I called and said I’d like to withhold my application until I have had my finances evaluated, and asked when in the process I’d learn about the fees 👀 I wish I had seen some of your advice about having no qualms about leaving! He apologized for not going over the fees and told me I’d be charged a 5% sales tax and a .6% expense ratio. I think I will let him know over the weekend that I will not be moving forward with the application. +So I went into Guitar Center and saw an amazing guitar that I’ve always wanted. A salesman came up to me and told me that they had a sales promotion from Black Friday which would allow me to finance the guitar for 48 months with 0% APR. I told him that I would need to think about it, so I went home and decided later that day that it was a pretty good deal on the guitar. + +So I went back into the guitar center later that night and told the sales person that I would like to go ahead with that deal. + +I asked him if he could please check with his manager to make sure that that particular instrument was eligible for the 48 months 0% APR financing. + +He went and walked away, then came back a few minutes later and assured me that Guitar would be eligible for these specific terms. + +He told me while he completed the bill of sale that I should fill out the credit application. This is a credit card through synchrony. + +After filling out the credit application and him running my credit score and pulling out the line of credit in my name, his manager came over to verify the information put on the invoice for the bill of sale. This is when things take a turn for the worse. + +After the line of credit had been approved and taken out in my name, the manager informed me that the guitar was in fact not eligible for the sales promotion because it was a used instrument. + +The reason I decided that I could buy the guitar was based upon my understanding of the Sales promotion. After having signed up for the credit card they told me the deal I signed up for wasn’t possible because the guitar I was interested in didn’t actually qualify. + +The sales associate made a mistake and didn’t realize the guitar I wanted wasn’t able to be sold under that specific 48 month 0% Apr financing term and rather only a 6 month term instead. + +I don’t know if I want the guitar now, but the credit has already been taken out in my name. + +What can I do? I tried talking to the manager, He has no solutions for me. +I tried contacting Guitar Center’s corporate office, but of course they won’t answer. + +Will my credit be even more affected if I cancel the line of credit? + + +EDIT: Thanks everyone for taking time to respond. Lots of really good tips and insight that I wasn’t aware of. + +I am a composer, so this purchase is semi-work semi pleasure. I can buy it cash, but my original thoughts in financing it were;“oh wow that’s a good sales promotion, I could make small payments for a while then just pay it off completely to build my credit score more“ + +Is this not a good way to think? +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/a-controversial-part-of-robinhoods-business-tripled-in-sales-thanks-to-high-frequency-trading-firms.html + + +>Robinhood’s co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev defended the practice in a blog post. + +>Tenev said like its broker-dealer peers, the start-up “participates in rebate programs which help customers get additional price improvement for their orders by creating competition amongst the exchanges and liquidity providers who fill the orders, often resulting in superior execution quality.” + +>“We send your orders to the market maker that’s most likely to give you the best execution quality,” Tenev said a blog post. The company also said it does not take rebates into consideration. “All market makers with whom we work have the same rebate rate.” +There is an idea in contemporary culture that businesses are simply better at most tasks than government because they are motivated by profit and literally can't afford to lose money. Are there nay tasks, though, that can ONLY be performed by a government, or that can be more efficiently done by a government? +Big ole dirty wall of text incoming, but for a frequently discussed company I figured it was worth writing out and reading if you are interested. + +**Intro** + +Most companies listed on the TSX are relatively easy to understand: Banks, Trains, Oil and Gas production/transportation/distribution, Telcos, Insurance, a gas station/convenience store chain, and like 3 tech companies. On the other side of the spectrum is one of the most complex and diversified companies – a corporate accounting masterclass in maximizing value - that most of us know and probably already own: Brookfield Asset Management, Inc. (BAM-A.TO). Most current discussion on Brookfield is either one or two clarifying question(s), a bit of history/breakdown, or just general 'they are amazing, just buy them' statements. I hope to provide as much of a be-all-end-all post and discussion on Brookfield in this post. + +I have a probable (most definitely tbh) way too high risk-adjusted portfolio weight towards Brookfield, I read every financial report and listen to each earnings call for Brookfield and all of the subsidiaries. I will therefore do my best to break down one of the most under the radar, underappreciated, and unlimited-potential public companies in North America: Brookfield Asset Management, Inc. They may be one of the top-10 biggest companies in Canada, but are only the 192nd largest company globally with so much potential to climb that list, and most people outside of those who are actively involved in investing have never heard of them. + +**Important History** + +A quick-ish overview of Brookfield (I will call the entire company- currently BAM.A or Brookfield Asset Management- simply 'Brookfield ' for simplification). They used to be (founded in 1899) a global conglomerate (mostly located in Brazil and Canada), with various companies in different industries. There are a couple ownership and name changes between 1899 and the Brookfield we know now, but they aren\`t that important. What is important is that Bruce Flatt, a chartered accountant and current CEO, started working at Brookfield (then named Brascan) in their investment division in 1990, became the CEO of Brookfield Properties in 2000, and then CEO of the entire Brookfield company in 2002. + +**Change in Approach** + +Modern Brookfield and its success do not exist without Bruce Flatt due to his approach and vision for Brookfield that he implemented when he took over. His 3 major changes to Brookfield were straightforward: + +1. shift from a standalone infrastructure company into one that seeks out investors who Brookfield will help invest their money for into the assets they specialize in (with Brookfield investing their own capital alongside their clients) for a management fee. Additional investors & owners should in theory remove some of the financial risk from Brookfield if things turned south. +2. Brookfield seeks out undervalued assets, buy them at distressed times with depressed values, then sell them after improving financial efficiencies when they are more favoured by their market (like Buffett and Berkshire but without the forever ownership, Brookfield constantly slides in and out of assets). +3. streamline the assets that are owned and managed by Brookfield into ones that meet 2 essential criteria: critically crucial to their industry and provide consistent, stable, and recurring/perpetual cash flows. + +An example for point 3 above is from Flatt's Bloomberg interview on YouTube (a must-watch), where he discusses how 'old' Brookfield owned a mining company. Commodity production cash flow is very volatile due to commodity prices. However, there was crucial infrastructure involved with the operation of these mines- namely hydro plants that provided renewable power for the mining operations. 'New' Brookfield under Flatt sold off the mining production but kept the power generation and transmission assets. These assets provided the essential infrastructure and energy needed to continue the mine operations, at a perpetual fixed price that paid predictable cash flow to Brookfield. + +This is their overarching approach to the assets they are involved with in any capacity. Real estate, power production and transmission, infrastructure- such as toll roads, cell towers, pipelines- and most recently private credit and insurance. These industries all have components that are essential to their function that always need to be paid (to Brookfield). Rent, electricity, data, debt repayment, pipeline use, insurance premiums, whatever. These all need to be paid or whatever is using them ceases to function. A most recent investment by Brookfield was in a music royalty partnership. This may seem like a strange move, but music royalties match their preferred asset class criteria: perpetual and stable cash flow, and proprietor-decided pricing. + +**What does Brookfield do & Who do they do it for (and with)?** + +It's all in their current name – Brookfield Asset Management. Brookfield manages assets for their clients- namely institutional investors. These could by high net-worth individuals, banks, governments, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, etc. Brookfield is one of the global leaders in identifying and brokering the sort of deals required for these mega money clients to gain ownership of major alternative assets. + +Brookfield invests almost exclusively in 'Real' or 'alternative' assets: assets outside traditional, liquid assets like equities, bonds, and cash. They are often very illiquid and difficult to buy and sell. You can buy Enbridge stock, but good luck buying a physical pipeline directly. These sorts of assets and deals are Brookfield's bread and butter- desirable alternative/real asset investing for truly diversified, mega money clients who will pay a recurring fee to Brookfield to manage the assets at a target rate of return (think like an MER for an ETF to rebalance). Additionally, Brookfield also earns carried interest, which is when profits are in excess of the above mentioned, agreed upon, rate of returns for their clients (and there is minimal downside risk to the asset and/or it`s cash flow). Essentially, when Brookfield makes too much money for their clients, they get to skim off the top as well… + +The clients of Brookfield who now technically own these assets outright or a portion of them will then receive the ongoing profits from these assets (following the criteria in point three from above). How these investments are funded is via what Brookfield calls their 'Vintages' (Flagship ones being their biggest and most sought-after). A Vintage is essentially fundraising with a desired $ amount and investment goal. A specific example: Brookfield closed a $10 billion 'Global Transition Fund' (or Vintage). A global transition means that they will purchase existing non-renewable assets, retire them, and replace them with renewables. Assets like a coal-fired plant being shut down and replaced with wind/solar for energy generation. Brookfield will seek clients who are interested in this sort of investment and fundraise from one or many of these clients until this vintage is 'full' - at least the $15 billion they have plans to raise and put to use. From here, Brookfield may also invest some of their own capital – revolving credit facilities and/or cash – to be a part owner with their clients. This is something Brookfield is essentially unique for within their industry. Most money managers simply manage and get paid to do so. Brookfield has skin in the game with their clients (and now partners), so they have an increased interest in the success of their assets. They also now receive funds from the operation of these assets, as well as the fees from their partners who they are managing the assets for. + +Another important aspect to these vintages: Brookfield may invest in these assets to improve them and/or sell them outright when enough value has been grown from them. They bought Westinghouse – a nuclear reactor producer – when they were on the verge of bankruptcy and nuclear energy was very much frowned upon. Now that the energy crisis is occurring and nuclear is back in discussion, they sold a minority stake in their vastly improved (after investing in improving financial efficiency) Westinghouse for a huge profit- while still retaining a controlling stake. Profits from these sorts of moves can also be paid out to clients, or 'recycled' into additional new or ongoing vintages. A single client may have funds across several vintages in several industries and may invest profits into growing their existing investments or further diversification. Its like a compounding DRIP but with real assets under Brookfield. This is a huge tailwind for Brookfield, as they have a lot of room to grow for vintage recycling and sector diversification for this recycling by clients as well. + +**Spin-offs – Which friggen' Brookfield to buy?** + +A corporate spin-off means that a segment or division of an existing company is legally separated and becomes it\`s own publicly-listed company. As an easy to digest example, imagine if Google made YouTube its own 'company', or Amazon made Amazon Web Services it\`s own company. You could still buy Google or Amazon, but you could also buy YouTube Inc. or AWS, Inc. separately. This allows you to adjust your weighting for a spun-off company vs the original in your portfolio. This is done most often to 'unlock the value' of the separated segment, which the parent company may believe is not being appropriately valued by the equities market when held 100% internally and wants to provide further value to shareholders. Almost always, the original parent company would retain an ownership percentage of this new company – usually a controlling stake. This means that the spin-off is its own separate legal entity, but would still be completely controlled by the parent company. This is all important because it helps clear up the BIP, BEP, BBU, (and the .UN limited partnerships), and BAMR confusion often discussed here and what you are buying and which to buy. I am not going to tell you which ticker/corporation and why, but I personally hold BAM and all the Corporation spin-off subsidiaries. It is a personal choice, and just remember what exactly you are buying. + +All the Brookfield's used to be just one corporation /business and one ticker – BAM.A. All their businesses and everything they did were all under the BAM name (in securities and corporation legal language). This actually made analyzing the company and their financials even more challenging – Imagine all of the current Brookfield subsidiaries' financial statements either added to BAMs or some info just left out for simplification. This would make it a pain to truly identify their key assets. A similar example is going back to Alaphabet. They used to not disclose operating segments separate revenues, so you couldn't tell how much of their revenue came from each of advertising, hardware, YouTube, etc. Just one huge ass number. Separating all this info allows for more scrutiny and appropriate evaluation of the different components of the business. + +Back to the spin-offs. Flatt & co. have spun out 4 parts of their business to date (with another happening soon): Their Infrastructure business/BIP & BIPC (owner and operator of their utilities, transport, midstream, and data businesses), Renewables/ BEP & BEPC (renewable power generation and transmission and global energy transition), Business Partners/ BBU & BBUC (services and business such as mortgage lending/insuring, government lottery service providers, basically most things that don't fall under their other businesses), and Insurance and Reinsurance/ BAMR ( reinsurance is basically insurance for insurance providers – transferring some of their risk for a fee in case of catastrophic circumstances that could cause a lot of financial damage to the original insurer – its insurance all the way down!). + +These spin-offs meant that Brookfield Corp. provided shares of these new companies to owners of the Brookfield Mothership at a value originally calculated based off what was distributed from the original BAM.A shares. For example- Brookfield Corp. is spinning off their Asset Management business and providing 1 share of BAM for every 4 shares of BN (what is currently BAM.A but will become BN. Your BAM.A shares become BN and the distributed shares will be BAM which is just their asset management and BN is the mothership). Therefore, your BAM (now BN) shares will decrease in value by 25% and your new BAM shares will be worth 25% of the value of the price of BAM at the time of this spin. + +This happened for all spin offs, and again for the creation of the corporation shares from the original Limited Partnership shares. Limited Partnerships means that there is a managing partner (Brookfield the mothership is for all partnerships) and a partner who is not involved in the operations (us as the BIP/BEP/BBU .UN shares). These are all subsidiaries of the big BAM. Corporation shares (corporations board of directors and C-suites chosen by shareholders) were spun out from these LP shares. This means that each corporation/segment now has it\`s own CEO, CFO, COO, etc. but they are subsidiaries of the Limited Partnerships that are managed by Brookfield Corporation at the very top. Fun to follow right? The next fun part is who the top shareholders for these separate companies is: Brookfield Corp. itself. They have a: 27% stake in Infrastructure, 48% in Renewables, 65% in Business Partners, and soon 75% in their Asset Management. While they don't have full voting control (50% plus one share) of BIP or BEP, we would be foolish to think Brookfield Corp. and Flatt don\`t have a great big say in what these two divisions do because Brookfield manages these spin-offs. Bruce Flatt rules over all of Brookfield with his Managing partners. There is some extra tricky and frankly a little shady stuff where us as BAM.A shareholders don\`t have any real decision-making power (the managing partner hold BAM.B shares which have all the voting power), but I have full faith in the controlling partners, and don\`t want some idiot minority shareholder railroading them and messing with the secret sauce. + +**The Good, The Bad (that’s actually decently good), and The Not Great** + +I've laid out most of what Brookfield is and what makes them great- they are company whose sole purpose is to make themselves and their client's money with mostly real assets in specific industries that provide stable & perpetual cash flows, and are essential to the operation of that industry. The executives up and down their C-suites are masters of their craft. Bruce Flatt needs no further discussion. Mark Carney – the soon to be Chair of the spin-off Asset Manager, and current Vice Chair for all of Brookfield, and head of their transition investing – used to be the governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2020, has a bachelor degree in economics from Harvard and a Masters and PhD from Oxford… Quite the resume and big picture education and experience that I have utmost respect and confidence with for helping lead Brookfield. + +The rest of the C-Suites for Brookfield- and it`s spin-offs- are full of MBAs and Chartered Accountants. The recurring Accountant distinction among the executives could be seen as a positive or a negative. Over-accounting has done a lot of damage to a lot of great companies. Intel is a prime example, where accounting nickel and diming being prioritized over innovation and engineering led to the start of Intel's slow burn downwards for most of the 2000s. There is always a risk to a big emphasis on the number's guys for capitalism. A commonly frowned upon trend for companies and assets that Brookfield purchases is that they are stripped to the bone, efficiencies are maxed at the expense of a lot of the original company and employees, and then what is left over usually eventually sold for top dollar or for parts. This is an ugly side to capitalism compared to say Buffett and Berkshire who buy companies, assist the executives with their companies, and own them and assist with their success and hope to have them thrive forever. Personally, I feel that a lot of big picture decision makers at the top who have an education in accounting (where making the money work as efficiently as possible) when their company has a sole top goal of making money for themselves and their clients is a net positive for the company. + +Another thing with all the accounting professionals within Brookfield to consider is how damn their financials are. All the Corporation structure discussed above, how frequently Brookfield acquires and sells assets, the quantity of income streams they have, and the costs of these income streams means that there is a lot to include in their financials. All I can say is be patient and ACTUALLY READ their financial statements. Don\`t just breeze over the comments and look at a couple of the numbers from their income statements. Yes, BAM has a 60 page quarterly report and a TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY page annual report from 2021, but If you intend to place any weighting higher than what is within an ETF into any single company, you really should know more about the company you are putting your retirement into than the surface level info. I have most of my current retirement money with the Brookfield\`s, so I am on top of the financials and their ongoing transactions at all times. + +**What about their Debt???** + +A common negative for Brookfield is how much debt is on their balance sheet. Again, this is surface level analysis and not quite accurate to the level of risk this offers. Brookfield the Corporation has a total of a little over 12 billion 'corporate borrowings', while all the rest of their almost 200 billion in debt is property-specific, non-recourse, and long-dated fixed debt. Property-Specific and non-recourse means that if the creditor does not receive the payments from their debt, all they can do is confiscate the asset they have the loan on, and no material impact will happen to the owning corporation. The only debt the actual corporation has is roughly 12-15% of debt to capitalization (12 billion debt for an 85 billion company) which is actually a fantastic ratio for a company of Brookfield's size. + +Additionally, when they spin off their asset manager, the debt held by the asset manager will be zero. Not too shabby for their crown jewel division that they intend to payout 90% of funds from operations to shareholders- and 75% of that is going right up to the Brookfield Corporation. Finally, most of their debt (including 10.8 of the 12 billion corporate debt) is fixed-rate (so not impacted by rising rates at the moment) and at an average length of 13 years and maturing between 2024 and 2080. Again, not nearly as much of a risk as just seeing 200 billion in debt on Yahoo Finance... Even the biggest dog Apple has around 120 billion in total debt, and they have far less leveraged assets (Brookfield is the LARGEST landlord in New York, London, Los Angeles, Toronto, and additional major cities like Houston…) so while there is a risk of having so many assets on the balance sheet with debt- even if it does not have a material risk to the corporation- Brookfield owns just so many cash-producing assets, plus their money wizardry, means that they can keep their enormous ship going and flowing. + +Will rising rates hurt their ability to borrow? Eventually yes, and with markets being forward-looking, this is apparent in their share price dropping like its hot. Long, looong term though, this is a fantastic opportunity to accumulate since I believe that we are all too drunk on cheap-ish money, and rates will not climb to obscene levels and will likely stabilize and/or dip. FInally, Brookfield may place more focus on their fundraising vintages and management fees/carried interest and add far less of their own capital (cash and debt) into the assets they continue to involve themselves with. Knowing how good they are with money, I still have faith. + +**Capitalism often brings out the worst in people** + +Look no further than the Wikipedia page for Brookfield to see their controversies section and some of the shady business practices they have been accused of and lawsuits they have been involved with. If you are a conscientious investor, then Brookfield probably is not for you (even with their huge emphasis on renewable power and transitioning to it). One of their biggest stinkers (depending on one's political opinions) is leasing Jared Kushner's 666 Fifth Ave skyscraper for 99-years. This is a property that was a majorly expensive scorn for Donald Trump's son-in-law, and there is a lot of correlation and suspicion here that Brookfield- and their major investor/customer Qatar Investment Authority- did this to curry favour with the… we can say controversial… former presidential administration. + +**Conclusion** + +Brookfield is a complex company, but with curiosity and patience, they are not necessarily a complicated company. As we have seen with the equities and bond markets, having too much exposure to these asset classes can be very risky. True diversity, especially for the biggest wealth funds and richest of the rich, involves diversity that us everyday people could not imagine. Real assets, alternative assets. Don't buy shares in a pipeline company, buy the pipeline. Don't buy a hotel REIT, but the Atlantis Paradise Island Resort. There is no better company to help broker this sort of deals, at the best prices and the best rates of return, than Brookfield Corporation and their spiderweb of sharks and industry specialists. 2,200 Investment specialists, over 180,000 operating staff, and the best of the best executives making the decisions. I probably should not have so much of my equities net-worth in the Brookfield\`s (now above 95%, whoops), but I have a lot of time left in my investing life to take such a balls-to-the-wall risk on one my favourite and high conviction public companies. BAAAAAAAAAAM +[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/24/technology/instagram-cofounders-resign.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/24/technology/instagram-cofounders-resign.html) + +&#x200B; + +One of the jewels in Facebook's crown seems to have slipped away. I'm curious what this may imply for their long term future. I felt somewhat bullshit on FB primarily because of their ownership of Insta. While this doesn't approach other recent tech-turnover scandal levels it's still a very interesting development given some of the recent Facebook foibles. +$ULTRA has been record breaking since launch and is FULLY RUGPROOF. + +As a fully rug-proof token, Ultrasafe has all liquidity locked for 79 years, contract ownership renounced, and an official audit completed by Solidity and Certik. We are officially SAFER THAN SAFEMOON.[https://www.certik.org/projects/ultrasafe](https://www.certik.org/projects/ultrasafe) + +&#x200B; + +[https://solidity.finance/audits/UltraSafe/](https://solidity.finance/audits/UltraSafe/) + +Our dev's are also DOXXED and have done two AMA's so far. + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcyQYBk4wU4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcyQYBk4wU4) + +&#x200B; + +Ultrasafe's tokenomics allow for 4% of every transaction to be distributed to the liquidity pool and 4% to be reflected among holders. Whale wallets are also extremely small compared to any other token. + +&#x200B; + +This coin has only been out for two weeks and it's already achieved numerous things, including:- Listed on a Centralized Exchange (LBank)- Broken multiple world records on BSC and has already gained over 30k+ dedicated holders- Listed on Coingecko on day 1- 2 Audits which show that the coin is safer than even Safemoon- Devs doxxed themselves and showed faces during an AMA (unlike some of the coins promoted here that just rugged) + +Ultrasafe's growth has been record breaking and we're already on our first exchange. CMC listing should be any day now and more and more CEX listings to come. We're at 33,500 holders in two weeks time. The community is the single best part of this coin, the telegram has 10k members and usually 2-3k active at any given time, the voice chat is ALWAYS ACTIVE and extremely helpful and responsive. No other coin has dedicated holders and a strong thriving community than we do. + +&#x200B; + +The team has so far consistently delivered and we're already listed on one exchange. More to come, mass marketing in progress of being rolled out, NYC billboard, etc. + +Upcoming we have: + +Website v3 + +CMC Listing + +Huge tiktokers and other influencers this week, one of them this weekend. + +50k marketing campaign next week, most of which the dev is paying out of pocket + +LLC also be done next week allowing for more major CEX's + +staking dApp is done but needs more work + + Telegram: [https://t.me/UltraSafeOfficial](https://t.me/UltraSafeOfficial) Website: [https://ultrasafe.finance/](https://ultrasafe.finance/) Twitter: [https://twitter.com/UltraSafeBSC](https://twitter.com/UltraSafeBSC) Pancake: [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x0b3f42481c228f70756dbfa0309d3ddc2a5e0f6a](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x0b3f42481c228f70756dbfa0309d3ddc2a5e0f6a) +Good day everyone, + +For those investors who are further down the road, i'd like to know what you would tell your 25 year old self if you were just starting out. + +I have experience in trading, however that went horribly south and i'm finally back in a position where i can make $400-500 monthly contributions. And this time, I'm taking the slow and steady road. + +Given my age, i do understand i have time and compounding on my side, however I'm looking for growth + dividends. + +As i've noticed here, a sub fan-favorite would be SCHD. I've looked at the monthly chart as well as their holdings and it seems like a solid hold and forget. + +I plan to allocate 50% of my port to SCHD and i'm also looking at QYLG for more weight on the dividend side. + +Can anyone share their outlook on what they'd advise their 25 year old self or myself given your experience on what has proved to grow substantially over time. + +Thank you very much in advance. +I see a lot of posts on here from people on their way to FIRE, but very few from people who have actually pulled the trigger on quitting their jobs, so I thought it would be worthwhile to give a little update on my situation. + +[Original Post](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4xnazq/sanity_check_for_burned_out_35yr_old_looking_to_re/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x) + +Since that post, I worked another year or so, and got a windfall from crypto which put my net worth at close to $2M. I bought a $400k condo in a ski town and quit my job in May 2018 at age 36. + +I've been feeling nauseous and losing sleep over the recent market drop. I took a look at my budget and think I am still ok, but if the market loses another 30-50%, I'm not sure what I'll do. Having been doing nothing but play video games and snowboarding the last two years, I doubt I could get another engineering job, even at a much lower salary. Before I retired, I said as long as there isn't another great depression, I'd be fine... + +Anyway, here are my numbers. + +Paid off condo - $400k, not included in WR calculations. A lot of people said it was smarter to get a mortgage at a low rate so I could keep more money invested, but I'm glad I went with buying my home outright. I know I just have to cover taxes and HOA and I'll have a place to live. + +Various investments - $1.35M. This was 1.85 just a few weeks ago. Fairly well diversified, but still stock heavy. Had about $100k left in crypto which got cut in half the last few weeks. So much for BTC being digital gold lol. + +Actual total spending in 2019 - $43,283. + +Income from renting out my condo on AirBNB and living with parents for \~5 weeks during peak ski and holiday season - $9k + +Using the $1.85M figure which I finished at last year, my WR was 1.8% for 2019. Using my current portfolio of 1.35M, WR jumps up to 2.5%. + +I think I can cut back to \~$35k spending this year by eliminating restaurants, travel, and some hobby related spending, which would put my WR at 2.0%, assuming I can rent my place again next winter for \~$9k again. That is a big assumption given the trajectory of the economy. I still have a little breathing room before I hit a 3.5% WR. At that point I'd have to start looking for any kind of work. + +Anyway, my advice is don't do leanFIRE. If I didn't have some cushion and low WR numbers, I'd be in a full blown panic. Give yourself a lot of room in case the unthinkable happens, e.g. a pandemic. +I am planning on applying to Cambridge for Economics and need to beef out my personal statement, especially on the maths end. My college offers us an opportunity to present a field of mathematics that is not on the specification to our further maths class. I think this is a good opportunity to explore an area of maths which can be applied to Economics. But what do I do? + +I have been suggested Markoff chains and Monti Carlo methods, both of which I have never heard of before. Are these too complex for a first year A-level student and can they be directly applied to economical situations? + +I have also heard game theory can be very mathematical and I may do some research into that however, I find many people talk about game theory and I’m intrigued in finding something more unorthodox. + +Could anyone recommend and interesting side of maths that can be directly applied to economics. It would be much appreciated :) +Hey guys, +Thanks to good old covid I’ve gone from comfortable paying a everything to ignoring my phone most days because it just doesn’t stop.... I’ve been trying to avoid going down the hardship route for my mortgage and car loan but after defaulting on my mortgage and my income being constantly changed due to the covid restrictions it’s looking like my only option. + +My question is, as I’m self employed and already getting fucked sideways on interest rates with Low Doc how much harder am I going to get fucked by seeking hardship? +You guys really are acting like dumb money. So you want to take this life changing money and sink it into a piece of property designed to impress the very people you despise. Those cars are just pure maintenance issues, one after the other. I'm sure a mechanic will tell you to buy them because they want to stay in business. + +If you want to play it smart, think about the super cars offered by more mainstream companies. Think the Ford GT or like a Dodge Demon or even a Tesla. That's because when it breaks, at least the parts will be reasonable. + +Some of you apes don't have 2 pennies to rub together and are talking about bugattis and paganis. You are the prime case example of why most lottery winners end up broke. + +Be smart. Take some time to see how you can curtail your money into generational wealth for your family and do something meaningful, not in vain. + +Takes this time to reflect about how you can continue to make this money work for you so you are set for life. + +Go spend 500 dollars and drive those cars for the day to get it out of your system by all means, but realistically.... Those cars aren't that impressive and you are not a Dubai oil barron that could afford the upkeep in perpetuity. + + +TL;DR: buy a nice car from a mainstream manufacturer so that you can have some reckless fun in it and not break the bank on maintenance. The exotics will suck up your money faster then Kirby on prom night. Just rent one for a special occasion instead. Much more worth it. + +Obligatory GME 2 DA MOON! + +Edit: OMG! I'm on the hot page of Superstonk! If DFV, Queenkong, or any of the outstanding DD writers or Mods are watching, hello and thank you for all your hard work! Your tireless efforts led me to write this. I don't want to see all these people come so far only to be let down by the realities and downsides of high value assets they know nothing about. I'm really touched by the awards and am glad this is getting traction. Again, I'm not advocating for any particular brand or investment style. I feel like I was just trying to warn a first-time home buyer to not forget to check the plumbing as well and some peoples response is "don't tell me how to spend my money". Spend how you will, but beware the unseen pitfalls. +Wow, what a day, can't wait for market open! + +But after 11 months of constant bs we've been through, I’m super sus ape there’s something wrong with todays AH price action. + +If this is MOASS, ok. Me and all my DRS’d shares are ready. LFG! But, IF this is another hedgie trick, **let’s talk about it** ok and figure out their game plan. +30% is not the MOASS. Might be the start of it, but it's not the MOASS. + +&#x200B; + +[pls](https://preview.redd.it/r0f51w4rj8a81.jpg?width=480&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f39edcd19f5ef89b2accb36413350fe6480204e1) + +There is a lot of suspect shit going on here tonight, I don’t know what it all means but I’m putting it on your radar so we can figure it out together. This is what I have collected: + +**SUS #1:** **All the meme stocks spiked in AH at exactly the same time. Before the WSJ article dropped.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nq4xiaosj8a81.jpg?width=814&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c011debf9d302b87ad1b463c5fcee015790fd4d2 + +This is less indicative of FTD covering or one Hedgie vacating the position suddenly. This is more like the linked basket-of-stocks behaviour we have seen many times before. Other posts have gone into more detail on this. I just want to add this was planned and controlled action. + +We know that there was no “roll” on Nov 19th as we had expected, and Jan 7th is the T+3+6+35c from that date. + +&#x200B; + +**SUS #2: Jan 6th had the lowest percent Dark Pool activity in months.** + +Really? You boys just gonna let all that retail go to the lit? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fwc9pchtj8a81.jpg?width=1274&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5c22359a8466f1716cc1a9de75ec47f6bb013a7 + +**SUS #3: Trading flat for three weeks … after getting slammed down hard** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5dxwzejuj8a81.jpg?width=1188&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da0a99f4fa16f6397fd5080090e0fd636bd3c480 + +We’ve been in a range since Dec 17th, with constant put walls up while they cover. This might have been used to cover a bunch of FTD’s in advance of the upcoming Jan 7 swaps date. We had 1-3M in vol each of these days, hard to say how much covering could have occurred is difficult. The consequence for this action is there are millions of dollars still in these put walls, which will get unceremoniously smashed today. + +So, they used the time to cover some shit. We've seen them cover-in-advance to throw us off our timings, like Nov 19 and Nov 22nd. + +**SUS #4:** That WSJ article itself. + +They could have chosen to release it at any time, they chose a time AFTER market close, the DAY BEFORE the big spike we have been expecting from Nov 19th fail to cover their CME swap position. The article has NO new info this sub was not already aware of. It was picked up by every mainstream org despite months and months of them bashing us. + +Clearly, they stole RC’s thunder here. The hedgies have been living in fear for weeks on end, knowing GS could drop a bomb on their heads at any time, so they put out that article not only as a super-convenient cover story. + +If you read the article, it makes the whole NFT thing seem pretty meh. We all know the potential of it, but the general public won’t, so it really comes off as a big dud. They have pre-empted the epic moass-inducing announcement with **a weak-sauce leak**. + +There are other posts that are digging into this more, I just want to point out that coordinating between Citadel, Melvin, Point72, CNBC, WSJ, MW, Virtu must pose quite a challenge which is why we see errors like time-travelling articles, synchronized covering and ham-handed fud campaigns. + +We see what you did there. + +**SUS #5:** That other sub is going max YOLO + +As someone who has been banned from it a couple times, that sub is controlled by hedges. If you disagree, stop reading here. But, for such a *tightly* controlled sub, the **content** of the YOLO plays is quite interesting, go take a look for yourself, it’s all a bunch of option plays. How did these guys pick up those options, AFTER the options market has closed? When we reopen tomorrow, the IV is going to make tomorrows options INSANELY expensive. (At least until there is an IV crush.) + +No links, go verify for yourself on this one, even a few minutes on that sub makes me vomit. + +**SUS #6:** **There simply aren't that many Call going ITM tomorrow.** + +[Actually not a lot](https://preview.redd.it/191yxoixj8a81.jpg?width=1726&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=34ab059f2cd3b72009b61c039404e8b736d4f867) + +I’ve written previously about the **systematic** and **complete** destruction of our call options chain. Ever since Nov 23rd, we’ve been hammered every single day until just a few hundred calls remained ITM for Jan 7th. I believe their target right now is to dodge the 61k of OTM call options on Jan 21st. + +&#x200B; + +[62k of Danger Noodles Jan 21st](https://preview.redd.it/br9xq8n7k8a81.jpg?width=2648&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdfc070afbe31aa71fe2af9664b27954610d13bf) + +They've decimated our call chain so what will run into the money today isn't a lot. There's a ton more out at **later** expiry dates. But if they can short it back down by the 21st, they can chose to not hedge those later exp calls and not buy the underlying right now. + +Tonight’s AH move could be an attempt to bait some ape’s into options and short GME for a quick IV crush, knowing they can dodge the T+13 settlement date and push that date back far enough to force a ton of options to expire worthless OTM. + +Given the lack of options running ITM, it might be manageable for them. + +If we start ripping tomorrow, punching up through the put walls, could the delta hedging alone spark the MOASS? Maybe, but don’t forget Citadel and Virtu decide if they want to hedge those call options on the way up, and may simply choose not to. Don’t forget they internalized several BILLION dollars back on Jan 27th-28th, according to the SEC report. I have no doubt they are again willing to sandbag the upward momentum since the alternative would indeed be MOASS. This would seem to be an important part of a ‘controlled demolition’ strategy. + +**WHAT I'M WATCHING TOMORROW** + +**The longer-dated puts could be a tell.** If they hold on to the 21st and later puts, that could indicate they intend to once again make use of them later, closer to that date. + +If you are brave enough to buy into the start of the rip, maybe consider shares or pick some expiry dates at least another 35c days out. + +Check out the Jan 21st PUT chain ... it's basically what you would want to backstop price action leading up to that date. + +&#x200B; + +[The Backstop](https://preview.redd.it/udqm3d20k8a81.jpg?width=1120&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e82bd4e167adc7f369575615f178e6d6005e1b8) + +&#x200B; + +Market Maker de-Hedging of the puts as we run tomorrow could/should actually be a LARGER factor in Delta induced price action. Well, that is IF the MM chooses to un-hedge. If the Hedgie doesn't sell the put, and there is no reason to, the MM still make the call as to when they un-hedge. **Or if.** + +Watch the price action tomorrow, and the Jan 7 put volume specifically to see what's happening. + +We've got **7,457** **put** contracts that should get un-hedged at market open, if we open at $160. That's massive buy pressure of 747k shares! We **should** take off like a Tesla model Plaid! If we don't, there's ***fuckery***. + +Also, **4,179** **call** contract that should go ITM and get Delta hedged. That's 417k shares! These certainly will get sold off by end of day, they are *expiring*. Retail does not usually have the cash to let options expire in the money and exercise. + +The CME basket swaps likely needs to be covered Jan 7th, but they can push the ETF stuff out a bit further. The last swaps day Aug 24th we ran vol over 14M, so if Jan 7th is on the same order of magnitude, then it’s just the swaps coming in. + +**REMINDER:** T+13 Settlement for ETF’s has a few caveats for covering. Specifically, they have provisions for T+35 settlement (not T+13) See notes from SajiMeister below, outlining the T+35. + +Meaning, don't jack yer kitties over the T+13, *they might be going out to T+35*. (See ETF winding exception below.) + +**ALL I AM SAYING ...** + +I want this to be the start of MOASS. I do. I really, really, really do, but I am watching like a hawk for fuckery. And I see a lot of fuckery tonight. + +I don’t believe in a 'fake squeeze'. If the price hits $950 the margin for every hedgie will be blown out, margin calls for everyone and we’re all driving a Lambo tomorrow. + +This looks like a setup to run us up to around $220 or $300 before they smash it right back down. They covered some FTD's early, they can make it look like they are losing control, get us to fomo into options and higher-priced shares before they pull the rug. (No FUD, I'm not anti-option, if you gonna fomo in, go right ahead *just fomo smart*. Shares, long-dated/ITM options are less vulnerable to hedgie shenanigans.) + +They can't win, of course. We're not selling so they can **never** win. But that's not their plan, a permanent stalemate is their objective. Just stall for time, one day at a time. + +They need to disarm RC, cover an ungodly number of FTD's & swap fails over the next couple weeks, so a controlled spike, reset their shorts at the top, is the plan, just like in Feb, May and Aug. + +Pls don't fling any poo at me if I am wrong. bc if I am wrong you will be picking out what color Lambo you want on Monday. + +*Pls tell me I am wrong and this is MOASS.* + +**EDIT:** Got another SUS point to add, comment below pls. + +**TLDR: Hedgies playing games but this a danger-noodle game they can only lose.** + +\--- Threshold DD below --- + +**The NYSE Threshold Rules and What Exceptions Are Made** + +“(3) If a participant of a registered clearing agency has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a threshold security for thirteen consecutive settlement days, **the participant shall immediately thereafter close out the fail to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity:”** + +***A note on the above section is that the person shall immediately close out their position. So it doesn’t say someone will come and close it for them but it is saying that they should close it out OR they will face restrictions in trading where they can no longer mark sales as short. They could always mark a short sale as long and face the fines later. These sales would still be subject to T+13 but could allow them to do some illegal naked short selling that has been shown to have happened countless times in the past.*** + +“(i) Provided, however, that a participant of a registered clearing agency that has a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency in a threshold security on the effective date of this amendment and which, prior to the effective date of this amendment, ***had been previously grandfathered from the close-out requirement in this paragraph*** (b)(3) (i.e., because the participant of a registered clearing agency had a fail to deliver position at a registered clearing agency on the settlement day preceding the day that the security became a threshold security), shall close out that fail to deliver position within thirty-five consecutive settlement days of the effective date of this amendment by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity; “ + +**What does it mean to be grandfathered in?** + +*It means that if the FTD happened before the security was place on the threshold list and it was grandfather due to a reason in section 242.200 then it can still deliver the shares on the T+35 schedule. The below are summaries of the exceptions that could have allowed them to have a t+35 settlement prior to the threshold start date.* + +\- *If the person who has the FTD is an unconditional contract binding both parties to purchase but has not received the security. It now can extend 35 days.* + +\- *The person owns a security convertible (tokenize stocks cough cough) and has tendered such security for conversion or exchange.* + +\- *Person has exercised an option but has not yet received the shares.* + +\- *Person holds a securities futures contract. Basically, an arrangement with a person that they will buy x amount of the stock on some date in the future and the contract can not be broken. This is where the crypto fuckery is. Pump crypto make a contract liquidate crypto on contract end date so that it costs less money to buy security in future contract.* + +\- *ETF fuckery. The terminology is confusing but there is a way to extend FTDs to T+35 using ETF “unwinding”.* + +o *“The broker-dealer is unwinding index arbitrage position involving a long basket of stock and one or more short index futures traded on a board of trade or one or more standardized options contracts as defined in 17 CFR 240.9b–1(a)(4)”* +Yesterday u/usriusclark made a comment \[ [\[HERE\]](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vgnh6z/comment/id3elbl/) \] about the most recent GME analyst report by Zacks.com Investment Research: + +>"They are missing one other '**reason to buy**': nearly half of the free float is held by at least 125k individual investors who are holding this stock for life." *(emphasis mine)* + +It stuck out to me for **two** ***extremely*** **important reasons**: + +# Reason #1: + +* That *is* a **huge** miss: Retail now owns 14.7 MILLION DRS'd shares of GME *(****43.1***\*%\*\*\* *of the total publicly available float of 34.3 million shares)* leaving only 19.5 million before 100% of publicly available GameStop shares have been directly registered in *our names* and removed from the DTCC (Sauce: \[[Computershared.net](https://www.computershared.net/)\] & \[[DRSGME.org](https://DRSGME.org)\]) +* This ***SHOULD*** be an obvious staple of every single MSM article/commentary/analyst report- and yet, not a single media entity has mentioned the DRS numbers that GameStop continues to verify each quarter + +# Reason #2: + +* I've been in GME since the Jan 2021 sneeze, and it only just occurred to me: +* At this point, the laundry list of **objectively legitimate, fundamental business & inter-industry positives** is so long that it's getting difficult to remember each bullet point whenever an outsider/newcomer asks about investing in GME...and that list is STILL growing with no end in sight +* Ryan Cohen & co. keep racking up *reason-to-buy* after *reason-to-buy* after *reason-to-buy*, +* AND, they're doing it the RIGHT way: Every single *reason-to-buy*, or "RTBGME" if you will, is a **byproduct** of continuing to completely transform of GameStop as a business +* Just think about this: + * It is now June 21, 2022 + * The GME sneeze was only 17 months ago + * RC took over as official GameStop chairman only 12 months & 12 days ago + * These time periods are the *very definition* of the blink of an eye for complete leadership changeover & MASSIVE, ongoing company transformation + * And already, when ANY outsider/newcomer asks about investing in GME, we don't even have to think about mentioning "MOASS" or "short squeeze" or "naked shorts" or "Ken Griffin" or "Citadel" or "SEC is complicit" or "Plunge Protection Team" or "BCG" or "Jeff Bezos" or "infinite liquidity" or...and on and on and on + * You certainly *can* mention those things if you think your audience won't be turned off by cOnSpiRaCy tHeOriEs, but you don't have to + * ***And that is CRITICALLY important*** bc all the MSM has been telling outsiders/newcomers from the start is how we're a bunch of idiot conspiracy theorists...so just imagine the absolutely refreshing delight you'll create when someone is expecting to hear you rage about the SEC/the Fed/Citadel, but they *instead* get to have a pleasantly familiar conversation about the fundamentals of the most DEEP FUCKING VALUE company on the planet, completely invalidating the MSM "smart money" false narratives +* In my opinion, there's no other way to put it: that is truly, utterly astounding + * **LESS THAN 1.5 YEARS AGO,** GameStop was being manipulated to its bankruptcy death due to millions of fucking paper-cuts + * And **ALREADY**, we have the critically important topic of DRS, the QUICKLY vanishing GME float, *PLUS* the ***certified-ridiculous*** number of positives RC & co have gifted us to discuss for as long as *any* uninformed investor could possibly last in *any* conversation about investing + +I honestly don't know what's more impressive: + +1. The fact that GME is a once-in-human-history investment +2. Or the fact that RC & co have turned the entire ship around at the speed of light, forcing every MSM entity to shit their puckered little Uranus holes daily while desperately "informing" outsiders that "Ryan Cohen has no plans!" and "Ryan Cohen won't share his plans with us!" and even "[Ryan Cohen stole the ideas I came up with!](https://youtu.be/yiq01EC6Yr8)" etc + +# I'll say it again: Every single one of us needs to stop and let this sink in. + +# And once you've done that, get out there and spread the news FAR and WIDE about DRS'ing GME + GameStop's fundamentals! + +***P.S. THANKS RC & GAMESTOP & CO!*** **:)** +If that don't make you shiver I don't know what will. + +Personally I don't think we are in the end game until those numbers come out. We will either be proven right or wrong. No way around it. I hope everyone is mentally prepared for this. There is really only 3 ways this goes down + +1. the number is massive and that means a financial crisis is coming but we still must hold since IMO that will be the endgame but not the end of the game if that makes sense :) Many people will jump in on it as it literally means free money. +2. The number is pretty high ( close to 100%) still means we are right since many can not vote but would still mean having to guess and that sucks but its ok. Its better than scenario 3. +3. It is low to medium turn out. It means we are wrong about the situation ( This will most likely not be the case if you have seen the DD) + +So its pretty much between 1 or 2 in my humble opinion. **Carl Hagberg** the man himself said he would eat his hat if it wasn't overvoted and that's something I take to heart. Its the boomer version of saying " On god" or " No cap". + +I guess I'm just excited to finally be relived of this duty of guessing everyday. Worst case scenario investing in GameStop is that you go back to working a 9-5. Best case you create 9-5's for others. The choice is yours :) + +Not financial advice just wanted to let everyone know how close the endgame is really. Dates are ok because this is true. The voting numbers will be out a little after 6/9. + +REMEMBER TO VOTE BECAUSE JUST BECAUSE YOU MIGHT THINK ITS ALREADY OVERVOTED DOSENT MEAN IT IS. VOTE VOTE VOTE. BE A PART OF THE SOLUTION + +Edit1: I'm seeing lots of people saying " don't make dates it makes people paperhand". GameStop made the dates not me. Its not like I'm creating some magical number out of thin air. voting will end 6/9 and a few days after that, the voting numbers WILL 100% be released. Why cant I put a date on that? + +Edit2: I am not saying there is no future, there 100% is a bright future for GameStop. I am saying this is a very critical point for the GME MOASS and it should be without question that this is an unprecedented thing. Many things could happen. The plan is still to buy and hold. + +Edit3: The vote will give us the MINIMUM number of shares not the maximum. It will be some cold hard numbers to work off of and that's awesome. I'm just wondering if apes can handle the truth. + +Edit 4. Good afternoon. If you are afraid of other places not being able to vote , Don't. The US holds a VAST MAJORITY of the stock. Obviously it'd be nice if they could vote but they are trying their hardest. The us holds a about 90% according to this Bloomberg thingy so no worries. [https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nckmwo/14052021\_gme\_bloomberg\_terminal\_information/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nckmwo/14052021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/) + +Still edit 3 is the most important one :) + +Edit 5: Last one i swear. To people being liked " They don't have to or maybe they wont post the vote" They have a clear history of doing so and if they don't its good for us because it means legal action is being taken. There is literally NO downside. +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/charles-schwab-is-eliminating-online-commissions-for-trading-in-us-stocks-and-etfs.html + +"Charles Scwab said on Tuesday that it is ending commissions for online trading in U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds and options. The changes will apply to securities on Canadian exchanges as well." +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/charles-schwab-is-eliminating-online-commissions-for-trading-in-us-stocks-and-etfs.html + +"Charles Scwab said on Tuesday that it is ending commissions for online trading in U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds and options. The changes will apply to securities on Canadian exchanges as well." +I've read that economies are not zero-sum games and that the production of goods creates value that didn't exist before, but don't get it. The producer gets paid by the consumer so where does the new money/value come from? + +Edit: I understand that new money comes from the central bank of each economy, but is the rate of money creation related to the rate of production within that economy? Or is the exchange value of the currency reflective of the production? +"Chatter on message boards is reshaping the options market and sparking wild rallies". + +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-26/reddit-s-profane-greedy-traders-are-shaking-up-the-stock-market + + +Hi, I have just seen this: + +Channel: Quantpy + +Title: Algorithmic Trading on YouTube is Fake | Trading Strategies that Actually Work - YouTube + +The video left me with some bad vibes because he claims that algo-trading is bogus. The basic thesis that the guy pushes forward is that "algorithmic trading", like any other trading, doesn't work. He claims that it is not even a legitimate business. For him, the only profitable strategies in the market are pricing, risk monitoring and execution (or HFT). Therefore, I was wondering if: + +\- A/ Can algotrading generate consistent returns (5-10 years time frame) and beat the index? + +\- B/ Is it possible to do algorithmic trading with a self-taught strategy, or do you need to be hardcore training in advanced mathematics? + +Let me know your thoughts. + +PS, sorry for the repost; I think the previous one got blocked because of the direct link to the video. +I have bad credit, but I’m in the process of rebuilding it. Adding accounts & diversifying those accounts is good for having better credit, right? + +So, is it possible to get a loan from a bank for the amount of the car, but then also open up an account with them & deposit that same amount & set up auto-pay? That way it shows up on my credit report that I'm paying on time for a few months. + +Is this possible? Are there better alternatives? $3,500 is a good chunk of change for me right now, but I need a car soon. I just want to do it the smartest way possible to help myself out. +(originally shared within the jungle... realized I should probably share here too, but there is no cross-posting with this sub) + +I reached out to the WA state finance regulator after getting jerked around by Ally and Apex (re: DRS my GME shares stuck in my IRAS). I didn't expect anything to come of it, but I was pleasantly surprised to get a call last week from the investigator assigned to my case. + +I had an awesome conversation with her and helped her understand some of the broader concerns I have about the market behavior/manipulation around GME. She seemed genuinely interested and asked some very thoughtful questions. + +She reiterated that her office is "like Switzerland", but shared that she's seen so much financial fraud recently that she has taken her personal retirement money OUT of the stock market. I can only imagine what she's seen - we're only seeing the angle that GME has given us...this is her JOB. + +I think we're on the right track! + +Please contact your State Finance Regulator and share your concerns about GME! They really will look into it! This is how Purdue Pharma was taken down - not by the federal government, but by scrappy state AGs working together. The more eyes we can get on GME the better! + +[https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/how-do-i-find-my-states-bank-regulator-en-1637/](https://www.consumerfinance.gov/ask-cfpb/how-do-i-find-my-states-bank-regulator-en-1637/) +You may have noticed a suspicious amount of activity regarding a certain mining and dildo company in the pre and market discussion threads today. I confess, this morning upon seeing [this](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1vhgi/its_always_sunny_at_dlc_board_meetings/) post I came up with the bright idea of shitposting until a Motley Fool article gets written about the most dogshit stock on the ASX. + +The joke of DLC is that any two year old with half a brain should take two seconds to realize that it is an absolute dog of a company. Its shares are diluted to shit such that its stock price is below one cent. It has a negative revenue for the past two years. I mean, its a fucking company that sells sex toys and does mining exploration for god knows what reason. + +DLC has been a running gag on this subreddit as a standard recommendation for any low-effort moron post asking what stock to buy. If you ask a retarded question on this sub, you get a retarded answer, that's what makes our culture great. There have been bets on this sub in the past where the loser has had to buy $500 worth of DLC (shout out /u/stinkyfatwhale). Regulars of this sub are fully aware of DLC's joke status . + +What I did today was spam dumb information while mentioning DLC. I have never bought, and do not expect I will ever will buy a single share unless forced at gunpoint, and neither should you. + +In total, I posted **18 comments** in the pre-market thread and **17 comments** in the day-market thread mentioning the ticker DLC. Most of these were very satirical in nature, such as ["cancelling"](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1ros6/premarket_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqhw4l7/?context=3) the Motley Fool for not writing articles on DLC and claiming that DLC deserves to grow from a company losing millions to one losing tens of millions like [Z1P/APT](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1ros6/premarket_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqi12kv/?context=3) + +Some of the other regulars here caught onto the gag and [joined](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1ros6/premarket_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqi7pvw/) in the [fun](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1ros6/premarket_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqi6klu/), others took two seconds to call out a blatant ["pump"](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m2bae6/market_open_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqi6si0/) while some retards were genuinely [curious](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m1ros6/premarket_thread_for_general_trading_and_plans/gqi0ry5/) in the "hype" of the stock. In total, DLC was **mentioned 67 times** in the pre-market thread and **mentioned 50 times** in the Market Open thread. + + +The result? DLC traded today at **10 TIMES** its 10 day average trading volume, and was pumped **33%** to near **6 month high of 0.008**. That is insanity. I honestly don't know what to make of this. It reminds me of this [DEFCON](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytDamqTjPwg) presentation, where two guys (one who founded Twitch.tv) realized that the hacky spam emails they received shilling stocks actually caused rises in price that could be exploited. + +To be fair, markets do move fairly randomly, it is possible that this is a giant coincidence. DLC also had an announcement yesterday, but with no resulting price movement on that day. Gold in general was up today, for comparison ENX (a dogshit explorer I'm in ~$8m MC) was up ~4% and CHN (a $1.5b miner I'm in) was up ~6.5%, but these pale in comparison to the DLC leap. + +However, I sincerely believe the most likely explanation for this movement is that we managed to trip a sentiment algorithm scraping this subreddit today. There's a lot of fucking idiots on this sub, myself included, but I don't think any one of us will claim credit for the $315,000 worth of DLC that was traded. There was even a single purchase of $77k at at 0.007. + +If my suspicions are true, DLC has shown today that our shitposting here has consequences. This was a joke "pump" with **ZERO** co-ordination. It spontaneously emerged from my retarded brain this morning, and I have made no private contact with anyone else on this sub asking for "help". Imagine what a group of coordinated individuals taking a pump seriously could do. + +This sub has been [growing fast](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/llq0rd/subscriber_count_over_time_for_rasx_bets_we_have/) ever since GME shined the spotlight on our Mongolian basket weaving forums. Gone are the golden days where half the posts were from our memer in chief /u/bigjimbeef and the other half being an autistic mix of Melvin and Fish guts. + +Hopefully this can serve as a further wake-up call for our esteemed moderators who are already on [red-alert](https://old.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lhhvuo/killing_pump_and_dumps_targeting_rasx_bets_for/) from pumping groups attacking this sub. I think we might need further moderation rules to prevent further attacks, considering how "easy" this was. I think like WSB, there should be a limit on the market cap for a ticker to get mentioned here, e.g $10 million. The smaller the market cap, the greater the potential for malicious pumpers. + +I think all of us should also be more vigilant in enforcing the "Positions or Ban" unofficial rule. If someone is trying to hype something up, let them put their money where their mouth is or GTFO. The great shitposting culture we have here will last only as we can enforce it together. + + +TL:DR: This sub is an effective pumping ground, where even a joke can work. LONG DLC +The interview went well, we agreed on a salary. Got a call from one of the director saying how happy he was to have me on board. Then I got the employment contract, employees handbook, super forms, etc. + +I noticed that the salary was inclusive of super, and I kindly asked to consider stating my salary as exclusive of super; and, then immediately they decided to not hire me.... + +Wtf...? What did I miss + +Edit for clarification: +We agreed on say $100,000+super, and they put in the contract $110,500 (inc super). I asked to consider putting in the contract the former and they just decided not to hire me.... + From Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg: + +>Time May Be Ripe For An Inverse Cramer ETF: +One ETF that doesn't exist but maybe in the works is an inverse Cramer ETF, which would hold positions opposite to those promoted by the CNBC host. Recent calls on Netflix, AMC, and ARKK show the strategy could perform well and has potential for a hedge if the market struggles. Existing trackers and a planned index for Cramer's picks could be licensed to an ETF + +I would definitely be an investor in this just for the trolls. What is everyone's thought on a potential ETF? Would you add it to your portfolio? + WSB was never moving into silver. The media got the story wrong. + +Think about who reads weekend financial news. Old people. The last time silver had a real short squeeze was in the 70s, and these people are now in their 70s. Who clicks on ads? Basically only old people. Dealers of gold and silver love to advertise, and media likes to make money through click-through revenue. Of course they are going to post all these stories of small unit silver selling out at dealers, they will get higher click through and sales kickbacks from the targeted ads on these articles. + +If you are purchasing SLV thinking you are purchasing silver on the open market, you could not be more wrong. **Purchasing SLV is the best way for an investor to shoot themselves directly in the face.** + +I have done some research on SLV and I have come to believe that it is essentially a vehicle for JPM and other banks to crush retail investors by manipulating the silver market. + +So what are these games of manipulation that the banks have played? + +**The general theme could be described as this: If banks hold the silver, the price is allowed to rise, but if you hold the silver, the price is forced to fall.** + +Jeff Currie from Goldman had an interview on February 4th where he dismissed the idea of a silver short squeeze, and he had one line that was especially profound, + +“In terms of thinking how are you going to create a squeeze, the shorts are the ETFs, the ETFs buy the physical, they turn around and sell on the COMEX.” – Jeff Currie of Goldman + +This was shocking to holders of SLV, because SLV is a long-only silver ETF. They simply buy silver as inflows occur and keep that silver in a vault. They have no price risk, if the price of silver declines, it’s the investors who lose money, not the ETF itself, so there is no need to hedge by shorting on the COMEX. Further, their prospectus prohibits them from participating in the futures market at all. So how is the ETF shorting silver? + +They aren’t. The iShares SLV ETF is not shorting silver, its custodian, JP Morgan is shorting silver. This is what Jeff Currie meant when he said the shorts are the ETFs. Moreover, he said it with a tone like this fact should be plainly obvious to all of the dumb retail investors. He truly meant what he said. + +What is a custodian you ask? The custodian of the ETF is the entity that actually buys, sells, and stores the silver. All iShares does is market the ETF and collect the fees. When money comes in they notify their custodian and their custodian sends them an updated list of silver bars that are allocated to the ETF. + +But no real open market purchases of silver are occurring. Instead, JPM (and a few sub custodian banks) accumulated a large amount of silver, segmented it off into LBMA vaults, and simply trade back and forth with the ETFs as they receive inflows. **Thus, ensuring that ETF inflows never actually impact the true open market trade of silver.** When the SLV receives inflows, JPM sells silver from the segmented off vaults, and then proceeds to short silver on the futures exchange. As the price drops, silver investors become disheartened and sell their SLV, thus selling the silver back to JPM at a lower price. It’s a continuous scalp trade that nets JPM and the banks billions in profits. Here’s a diagram to help you sort it out: + +&#x200B; + +[reduce, reuse, recycle](https://preview.redd.it/ewkug02chwo61.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=a424d1a61b93e9a37541cdf8ff19591a3df9fb88) + +An even more clear admission that SLV doesn’t impact the real silver market came on February 3rd when it changed its prospectus to state that it might not be possible to acquire additional silver in the near future. What does this even mean? Why would it not be possible to acquire additional silver? As long as the ETF is willing to pay a higher price, more silver will be available to purchase. But if the ETF doesn’t participate in the real silver market, that’s actually not the case. What SLV was admitting here, was that the silver in the JPM segmented off vaults might run out, and that they refuse to bid up the price of silver in the open market. They will not purchase additional silver to accommodate inflows, beyond what JPM will allow them to. + +The real issue here is that purchasing SLV doesn’t actually impact the market price of silver one bit. The price is determined completely separately on the futures exchange. SLV doesn’t purchase futures contracts and then take delivery of silver, it just uses JPM as a custodian who allocates more silver to their vault from an existing, controlled supply. This is an extremely strange phenomenon in markets, and its unnatural. + +For example, when millions of people buy GME stock, it puts a direct bid under the price of the stock, causing the price to rise. + +When millions of people put money into the USO oil ETF, that fund then purchases oil futures contracts directly, which puts a bid under the price of oil. + +But when millions of people buy SLV, it does nothing at all to directly impact the price of silver. The price of silver is determined separately, and SLV is completely in the position of price taker. + +So how do we know banks like JPM are shorting on the futures market whenever SLV experiences inflows? Well luckily for us the CFTC publishes the ‘bank participation report’ which shows exactly how banks are positioned on the futures market. + +The chart below shows SLV YoY change in shares outstanding which are evidence of inflows and outflows to the ETF. The orange line is the net short position of all banks participating in the silver futures market. The series runs from April-2007 through February-2021. I use a 12M trailing avg of the banks’ net position to smooth out the awkward lumpiness caused by the fact that futures have 5 primary delivery months per year, and this causes cyclicality in the level of open interest depending on time of year. + +https://preview.redd.it/2vpm42uehwo61.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=5feb48c0ce3ce1a2a55280e7ec2f79b8b7f33c0a + +It is evident that as SLV experiences inflows, banks add to short positions on the COMEX, and as SLV experiences outflows they reduce these short positions. What’s also evident is that the short interest of the banks has grown over time, which is also why silver is ripe for a potential short squeeze, just not by using SLV. + +One other thing that is evident, is that the trend of banks shorting when SLV receives inflows, is starting to break down. Specifically, beginning in the summer of 2020, as deliveries began to surge, the net short interest among banks has actually declined as SLV has experienced inflows. It’s likely one or more banks see the risk, and the writing on the wall and is trying to exit before a potential squeeze happens (having seen what happened with GME). + +For further evidence of this theme of, “If banks hold the silver, the price is allowed to rise, but if you hold the silver, the price is forced to fall” look no further than the deliveries data itself, + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/e6gnlo7ghwo61.png?width=869&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb6ff867907a4de54a27876835cad96ac00ad46e + +You’ll notice that as long as futures investors didn’t actually want the silver to be delivered, the price of silver was allowed to rise, but whenever deliveries showed an uptick, the price would begin to fall once again. This is because the shorts know that they can decrease the price of all silver in the world by shorting on the COMEX, and then secure real physical silver from primary dealers to actually make delivery. Why pay a higher price to the dealers when you can simply add to shorts on the COMEX and push the price down, and then acquire the silver you need? + +But just like the graph of the bank net short position, you’ll notice that this relationship started to break down in 2020, and the price has started to rise alongside deliveries. The short squeeze is underway, and the dam is about to break. + +And lest you think I’m reaching with my accusations of price manipulation by JPM, why not just listen to what the department of Justice concluded? + +https://preview.redd.it/fwjolfmhhwo61.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b1804172cace87c2fb285f1f13bad1d5dcef374 + +For JPM and the banks involved in the silver market, fines from regulators are just a cost of doing business. The only way to get banks to stop manipulating precious metals markets is to call the bluff, take delivery, and make them feel the losses of their short position. + +SLV is by far the largest silver ETF in the world, with 600 million ounces of silver under its control, and its custodian was labeled a criminal enterprise for manipulation of silver markets. Why should silver investors ever put their money into a silver ETF where the entity that controls the silver is actively working against them, or at a minimum is a criminal enterprise? + +And let me know if you see a trend in the custodial vaults of the other popular silver ETFs: + +https://preview.redd.it/8kbb08xihwo61.png?width=607&format=png&auto=webp&s=7da347b06b44433082ab041d11f35d1563c8919a + +Further exacerbating the lack of trust one should have in these ETFs, is the fact that they store the metal at the LBMA in London. Unlike the COMEX that has regular independent audits, the LBMA isn’t required to have independent audits, nor do independent audits occur. I’m not saying the silver isn’t there, but why not allow independent auditors in to provide more confidence? + +So what are investors to do in a rigged game like this? + +Well, there is currently one ETF that is outside this system, and which actually purchases silver on the open market as it receives inflows. That ETF is PSLV, from Sprott. Founded by Eric Sprott, a billionaire precious metals investor with a stake in nearly ever silver mine in the world, so you know his interests are aligned with the longs of the PSLV ETF (in desiring higher prices for silver via real price discovery). Further, PSLV buys its silver directly, it doesn’t have a separate entity doing the purchasing, it stores its silver at the Royal Canadian Mint rather than the LBMA, and it is independently audited. By purchasing the PSLV ETF, retail investors can actually acquire 1000oz bars and put a bid under the price of silver in the primary dealer marketplace. And if a premium occurs among primary dealers, deliveries will occur in the futures market. + +This is what is starting to happen right now, a premium has developed among primary dealers, and deliveries on the COMEX have started to surge, while COMEX inventories have begun to decline. And this is happening after PSLV has added just 30 million ounces over 7 weeks (once the small contingent of silver squeezers realized SLV was a scam and started switching). Imagine what will happen if investors create 100 million ounces of demand. + +Even a small portion of SLV investors switching to PSLV because **they realize the custodian of SLV is a criminal enterprise**, would create a massive groundswell of demand in the real physical silver market. + +After the original silver squeeze posts went viral on WSB on 1/27, silver rose massively over the first 3 trading days following it. But on 1/31 a post was made about citadel being long SLV which got 74k upvotes (compared to only 15k on the original silver post). This lead to a fizzling in the momentum for the silver squeeze movement on WSB. However, given what I've explained here about how SLV is a complete scam meant to screw over investors, is it really that much of a surprise? + +Additionally, that post about citadel showed them with $130m in SLV. That's only 0.04% of Citadel's AUM. Do you really think they were pushing silver because 0.04% of their AUM was in SLV? This post also didn't detail the fact that citadel also had short positions on SLV. That's what a market maker does. They have long and short positions in just about everything. + +There are plenty of banks talking about a commodities super cycle, and a ‘green’ commodity super cycle where they upgrade metals like copper, but they never mention silver. Likely because banks have a massive net short position in silver. + +Lets dig into the potential for a silver squeeze, starting with the silver market itself. + +Silver is priced in the futures market, and its price is based on 1000oz commercial bars. A futures market allows buyers and sellers of a commodity to come to agreement on a price for a specific amount of that commodity at a specific date in the future. Most buyers in the futures market are speculators rather than entities who actually want to take delivery of the commodity. So once their contract date nears, they close out their contracts and ‘roll’ them over to a future date. Historically, only a tiny percentage of the longs take delivery, but the existence of this ability to take delivery is what gives these markets their legitimacy. If the right to take delivery didn’t exist, then the market wouldn’t be a true market for silver. Delivery is what keeps the price anchored to reality. + +Industrial players and large-scale investors who want to acquire large amounts of physical silver don’t typically do it through the futures market. They instead use primary dealers who operate outside of the futures market, because taking delivery of futures is actually a massive pain in the ass. They only do it if they really have to. Deliveries only surge in the futures market when supply is so tight that silver from the primary dealers starts to be priced at a large premium to the futures price, thus incentivizing taking delivery. Despite setting the index price for the entire silver market, the futures exchange is really more of a supplier of last resort than a main player in the physical market. + +Most shorts (the sellers) in the futures market also source their silver from sources outside of exchange warehouses for the occasional times they are called to deliver. The COMEX has an inventory of ‘registered’ silver that is effectively a big pile of silver that exists as a last resort source to meet delivery demand if supply ever gets very tight. But even as deliveries are made each month, you will typically see next to no movement among the registered silver because silver is still available to source from primary dealers. + +So how have deliveries and registered ounces been trending recently? + +Let’s take a quick look at the first quarter deliveries in 2021 compared to the first quarter in previous years: + +https://preview.redd.it/u6vl4z3lhwo61.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=97d96e5ee4fcc5553bb267603f764a0378123dec + +After adding in the 3.6 million ounces of open interest remaining in the current March contract (anyone holding this late in the month is taking delivery), 1Q 2021 would reach 78 million ounces delivered. This is a massive increase relative to previous years, and also an all-time record for Q1 from the data that I can find. + +Even more stark, is the chart showing deliveries on a 12-month trailing basis (which I also showed earlier) + +Note: You have to view this on an annual basis because the futures market has 5 main delivery months and 7 less active months, so using a shorter time frame would involve cutting out an unequal share of the 5 primary months depending on what time of year it is. + +https://preview.redd.it/o4wjuwfmhwo61.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=03f45022e0f2d1702d5c3e0aaa2877a654ed884b + +As you can see from the chart, starting in the month of April 2020, deliveries have gone completely parabolic. While silver doesn’t need deliveries to spike for a rally to occur, a spike in deliveries is the primary ingredient for a short squeeze. The 2001-2011 rally didn’t involve a short squeeze for example, so it ‘only’ caused silver to rise 10x. In the 2020s however, we have a fundamentals-based rally that is running headlong into a surge in deliveries that is extremely close to triggering a short squeeze. + +In fact this is visible when looking at the chart of inventories at the COMEX. + +https://preview.redd.it/9907dfnnhwo61.png?width=827&format=png&auto=webp&s=45d5859b4c8cd42a66118d62e6d1a97f2364d774 + +As you can see from the graph and the chart above, COMEX inventories are beginning to decline at a rapid pace. To explain a bit further, the ‘eligible’ category of COMEX is silver that has moved from registered status to delivered. It is called ‘eligible’ because even though the ownership of the silver has transferred to the entity who requested delivery, they haven’t taken it out of the warehouse. It is technically eligible become ‘registered’ if the owner decided to sell it. However, the fact that it is in the eligible category means that it would likely require higher silver prices for the owner to decide to sell. + +The current path of silver in the futures market is that registered ounces are being delivered, they then become eligible, and entities are actually taking their eligible stocks out of COMEX warehouses and into the real physical world. This is a sign that the futures market is currently the silver supplier of last resort. And there are only 127 million ounces left in the registered category. 1/3 of an ounce, or roughly $10 worth of silver is left in the supply of last resort for every American. If just 1% of Americans purchased $1,000 worth of the PSLV ETF, it would be equivalent to 127 million ounces of silver, the entire registered inventory of the COMEX. That’s how tight this market is. + +Right now we are sending most Americans a $1,400 check. If 1% of them converted it to silver through PSLV, this market could truly explode higher. + +And lest you think this surge in deliveries is going to stop any time soon, just take a look at how the April contract’s open interest is trending at a record high level: + +https://preview.redd.it/olei0ejphwo61.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=e53aa870cf012bdeff94fb0b9f4d07ab8127813f + +It looks almost unreal. And keep in mind the other high points in this chart were records unto themselves. That light brown line was February 2021, and look how its deliveries compared to previous years: + +https://preview.redd.it/llu9bzoqhwo61.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd538ecd2ad375f52aa20ae9932d3b795832f322 + +12 million ounces were delivered in the month of February 2021. A month that is not a primary delivery month, and which exceeded previous year’s February totals by a multiple of 4x. Open interest for February peaked at 8 million ounces, which means that an additional 4 million ounces were opened and delivered within the delivery window itself. + +April’s open interest is currently at a level of 15 million ounces and rising. If it followed a similar pattern to February of intra-month deliveries being added, it could potentially see deliveries of over 20 million ounces. 20 million ounces in a non-active month would be completely unheard of and is more than most primary delivery months used to see. + +Here’s what 20 million ounces delivered in April would look like compared to previous years: + +https://preview.redd.it/n706c9yrhwo61.png?width=478&format=png&auto=webp&s=78c23017586291a4f7efc66a274c8f1c9a99b4f3 + +So just how tenuous is the situation that the shorts have put themselves in (yes CFTC, the shorts did this to themselves)? Well let’s look at the next active delivery month of May: + +https://preview.redd.it/ppuloa0thwo61.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=680a8cfba0f920b008a6660f52f35d45d82557db + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fkh2bdfxhwo61.png?width=271&format=png&auto=webp&s=86c2bf46c9b547b8e0b0cfe109639ad283a832e7 + +If a larger percentage than usual take delivery in May, there is easily enough open interest to cause a true run on silver. With 127 million ounces in the registered category, and 652 million ounces in the money, most of it from futures rather than options, the short interest as a % of the float is roughly 513%. Its simply a matter of whether the longs decide to call the bluff of the shorts. + +No long contract holder wants to be left holding the last contract when the COMEX declares ‘force majeure’ and defaults on its delivery obligations. This means that they will be settled in cash rather than silver, and won’t get to participate in the further upside of the move right when its likely going parabolic. As registered inventories dwindle, longs are incentivized to take physical delivery just so that they can guarantee they will be able to remain long silver. + +Of course, the COMEX could always prevent a default by simply allowing silver to continue trading higher. There is always silver available if the price is high enough. Like the situation with GameStop, the authorities have historically tended to interfere with the silver market during previous short squeezes where longs begin to take delivery in large quantities. + +There were always shares of GME available to purchase, it’s just that the price had not reached what the longs were demanding quite yet. Given that it was the powerful connected elite of society who were short GME though, the trade was shut down and rigged against the millions of retail traders. The GME short squeeze may indeed continue, because in this situation it’s millions of small individuals holding GME. While they were able to temporarily prevent purchases of GME, they can’t force them to sell. + +In the silver short squeeze of the 1970s, that’s exactly what the authorities forced the Hunt Brothers (the duo that orchestrated the squeeze) to do, they actually forced them to sell. The difference this time is that it’s not a squeeze orchestrated by a single entity, but rather millions of individuals who are purchasing a few ounces of silver each from around the globe. There is no collusion on the long side among a small group of actors like in the 70s with the Hunt brothers or when Warren Buffet squeezed silver in the late 90s, so there’s no basis to stop the squeeze. + +In the squeeze of 1979-1980, the regulators literally pulled a ��GameStop’ on the silver market. Or in reality, the more recent action with GameStop was regulators pulling a ‘silver’. The regulators will try everything in their power to prevent the squeeze from happening again, but this time it’s not two brothers and a couple of Saudi princes buying millions of ounces each (or just Warren Buffet on his own), but rather it’s millions of retail investors buying a few ounces each. There is no cornering the market going on. This is actual silver demand running headlong into a silver market that banks have irresponsibly shorted to such a level that they deserve the losses that hit them. They’ve been manipulating and toying with silver investors for decades and profiting off of illegal collusion. Bailing out the banks as their losses pile up would be truly reprehensible action by our government, and tacit admission that our government is ok with a few big banks on the short side stealing billions from small individual investors. + +But what about beyond a short squeeze? Is there any logic to buying silver on a fundamentals basis? + +There are two types of bull markets in silver. One is a fundamentals-based bull market, where silver is undervalued relative to industrial and monetary demand. The second type of silver bull market is a short squeeze. Both types of bull markets have occurred at different points in the past 60 years. However, the 1971-80 market in which the price of silver increased over 30x does was combination of both types of bull markets. + +I believe we may be entering another silver bull market like the one that began in the fall of 1971, where both a short squeeze and fundamentals-based rally occur simultaneously. + +Smoke alarms are ringing in the silver market, and are signaling another generational bull market. + +So what are these ‘smoke alarms’? + +I recently went digging through various data to try and quantify where we are in the silver bull/bear market cycle. + +I ended up creating an indicator that I like to call SMOEC, pronounced ‘smoke’. + +The components of the abbreviation come from the words Silver, Money supply, and Economy. + +Lets look at the money supply relative to the economy, or GDP. More specifically, if you look at the chart below, you will see the ratio of M3 Money supply to nominal GDP, monthly, from 1960 through 2020. + +https://preview.redd.it/ltu4vgovhwo61.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=de4f9f2f0748ca3d86e8cf153175efa78901435d + +When this ratio is rising, it means that the broad money supply (M3) is increasing faster than the economy, and when it is falling it means that the economy is growing faster than the money supply. + +One thing that is very important when investing in any asset class, is the valuation that you enter the market at. Silver is no different, but being a commodity rather than cash-flow producing asset, how does one value silver? It might not produce cash flows or pay dividends, but it does have a long history of being used as both money and as a monetary hedge, so this is the correct lense through which to examine the ‘valuation’ level of silver. + +Enter the SMOEC indicator. The SMOEC indicator tells you when silver is generationally undervalued and sets off a ‘smoke alarm’ that is the signal to start buying. In other words, SMOEC is a signal telling you when silver is about to smoke it up and get super high. + +Below, you will see a chart of the SMOEC indicator. SMOEC is calculated by dividing the monthly price of silver by the ratio shown above (M3/GDP). + +More specifically it is: LN(Silver Price / (M3/Nominal GDP)) + +Below you will see a chart of the SMOEC level from January 1965 through March 2021. + +https://preview.redd.it/5m8y7kzyhwo61.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=1073a6fa09e9b1151a162b79172d673af515fc93 + +I want to bring your attention to the blue long-term trendline for SMOEC, and how it can be used to help indicate when investing in silver is likely a good idea. Essentially, when growth in money supply is faster than growth of the economy, AND silver has been underinvested in as an asset class long enough, the SMOEC alarm is triggered as it hits this blue line. + +Since 1965, SMOEC has only touched this trendline three times. + +The first occurrence was in October 1971, where SMOEC bottomed at 0.79 and proceeded to increase 3.41 points over the next eight years to peak at 4.20 in February of 1980 (literally 420, I told you it was a sign silver was about to get high). Silver rose from $1.31 to $36.13, or a 2,658% gain using the end of month values (the daily close trough to peak was even greater). Over this same period, the S&P 500 returned only 67% with dividends reinvested. Silver, a metal with no cash flows, outperformed equities by a multiple of 40x over this period of 8.5 years (neither return is adjusted for inflation). This is partially due to the fact that the Hunt Brothers took delivery of so many contracts that it caused a short squeeze on top of the fundamentals-based rally. + +The second time the SMOEC alarm was triggered was when SMOEC dropped to a ratio of 2.10 in November of 2001 and proceeded to increase 2.32 points over the next decade to peak at 4.42 in April of 2011. Silver rose from $4.14 to $48.60, an increase of over 1000%, and this was during a ‘lost decade’ for equities. The S&P 500 with dividends reinvested, returned only 41% in this 9.5-year period. Silver outperformed equities by a multiple of 24x (neither figure adjusted for inflation). There was no short squeeze involved in this bull market. + +Over the long term, it would be expected that cash flow producing assets would outperform silver, but over specific 8-10 year periods of time, silver can outperform other asset classes by many multiples. And in a true hyperinflationary environment where currency collapse is occurring, silver drastically outperforms. Just look at the Venezuelan stock market during their recent currency collapse. Investors received gains in the millions of percentage points, but in real terms (inflation adjusted) they actually lost 94%. This is an example of a situation where silver would be a far better asset to own than equities. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ir5gcfv0iwo61.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e02b95d63beea8de9b7e067cc40655d7a59da16 + +I in no way think this is coming to the United States. I do think inflation will rise, and the value of the dollar will fall, but it will be nothing even close to a currency collapse. Fortunately for silver investors, a currency collapse isn’t necessary for silver to outperform equity returns by over 10x during the next decade. + +Back to SMOEC though: + +The third time the SMOEC alarm was triggered was very recently in April of 2020 when it hit a level of 2.91. Silver was priced at $14.96, at a time the money supply was and still is increasing at a historically high rate, combined with the previous decade’s massive underinvestment in Silver (coming off of the 2011 highs). Starting in April 2020, silver has since risen to a SMOEC level of 3.37 as of March 2021. Silver is 0.46 points into a rally that I think could mirror the 1970s and push silver’s SMOEC level up by over 3.4 points once again. + +Remember that this indicator is on a LN scale, where each point is actually an exponential increase in the price of silver. Here is a chart to help you mentally digest what the price of silver would be at various SMOEC level and M3/GDP combinations. (LN scale because silver is nature’s money, so it just felt right) + +The yellow highlighted box is where silver was in April of 2020 and the blue highlighted box is close to where it is as of March 2021. + +https://preview.redd.it/af5yjg13iwo61.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=f34ac3ae181c742c4ab2dbf30f64ae82648d84ac + +**An increase of 3.4 points from the bottom in in April of 2020 would mean a silver price of over $500 an ounce before this decade is out. And there’s really no reason it must stop there.** + +The recent money supply growth has been extreme, and as the US government continues to implement modern monetary policy with massive debt driven deficits, it is expected that monetary expansion will continue. This is why bonds and have been selling off recently, and why yields are soaring. Long term treasuries just experienced their first bear market since 1980 (a drop of 20% or more). The 40-year bull market bond streak just ended. What was the situation like the last time bonds had a bear market? Massively higher inflation and precious metals prices. + +https://preview.redd.it/0e9ncqp4iwo61.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=21a08435c70609ca534ca672815cc2095358ef5a + +This inflation expectation is showing up in surging breakeven inflation rates. And this trend is showing very little sign of letting up, just look at the 5-year expected inflation rate: + +https://preview.redd.it/esd1tzp5iwo61.png?width=618&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c26a1673a48f884c3e3cba23ef3d393cfc5eac9 + +Inflation expectations are rising because we are actually starting to put money into the hands of real people rather than simply adding to bank reserves through QE. Stimulus checks, higher unemployment benefits, child tax credit expansion, PPP grants, deferral of loan payments, and likely some outright debt forgiveness soon as well. Whether or not you agree with these programs is irrelevant. They are not funded by increased taxes, they are funded through debt and money creation financed by the fed. As structural unemployment remains high (low unemployment is a fed mandate), I don’t see these programs letting up, and in fact I would be betting that further social safety net expansion is on the way. The $1.9 trillion bill was just passed, and it’s rumored the upcoming ‘infrastructure’ bill is going to be between $3-4 trillion. + +This is the trap that the fed finds itself in. Inflation expectations are pushing yields higher, but the nation’s debt levels (public and private) have expanded so much that raising rates would crush the nation fiscally through higher interest payments. Raising rates would also likely increase unemployment in the short run, during a time that unemployment is already high. So they won’t raise rates to stop inflation because the costs of doing so are more unpalatable than the inflation itself. They will keep short term rates at 0%, and begin to implement yield curve control where they put a cap on long term yields (as was done in the 1940s, the only other time debt levels were this high). So where does the air come out of this bubble, if the fed can’t raise rates at a time of expanding inflation? The value of the dollar. We will see a much lower dollar in terms of the goods it can buy, and likely in terms of other currencies as well (depending on how much money creation they perform). + +The other problem with the fed’s policy of keeping rates low for extended durations of time (like has been the case since 2008), is that it actually breeds higher structural unemployment. In the short term, unemployment is impacted by interest rate shifts, but in the longer-term lower interest rates decrease the number of jobs available. Every company would like to fire as many people as possible to cut costs, and when they brag about creating jobs, know that the decision was never about jobs, but rather that jobs are a byproduct of expansion and are used as a bargaining chip to secure favorable tax credits and subsidies. Recently, the best way to get rid of workers is through automation. + +Robotics and AI are advancing rapidly and can increasingly be used to completely replace workers. The debate every company has is whether its worth paying a worker $40k every year or buying a robot that costs $200k up front and $5k a year to do that job. The reason they would buy the robot is because after so many years, there comes a point where the company will have saved money by doing so, because it is only paying $5k a year in up-keep versus $40k a year in salary and benefits. The cost of buying the robot is that it likely requires financing to pay that high of a price up front. In this situation, at 10% interest rates, the breakeven point for buying the robot versus employing a human is roughly 8 years. At 2% interest rates though, the breakeven investment timeline for purchasing the robot is only 4 years. + +The business environment is uncertain, and deciding to purchase a robot with the thought that it will pay off starting 8 years from now is much riskier than making a decision that will pay off starting only 4 years from now. This trade off between employing people versus robots and AI is only becoming clearer too. Inflation puts natural upward pressure on wages, governments are mandating higher minimum wages are costlier benefits as well. There’s also the rising cost of healthcare that employers provide as well. Meanwhile the costs of robotics and AI are plummeting. The equation is tipped evermore towards capital versus labor, and the fed exacerbates this trend by ensuring the cost of capital is as low as possible via low interest rates. + +On top of the automation trend, low interest rates drive mergers and acquisitions which also drive higher structural unemployment. In an industry with 3 competitors, the trend for the last 40 years has been for one massive corporation to simply purchase its competitor and fire half the workers (you don’t need 2 accounting departments after all). How can one $50 billion corporation afford to borrow $45 billion to purchase its massive competitor? Because long term low interest rates allow it to borrow the money in a way that the interest payments are affordable. Lacking competitive pressures, the industry now stagnates in terms of innovation which hurts long term growth in both wages and employment. Of course, our absolutely spineless anti-trust enforcement is partially to blame for this issue as well. + +The fed is keeping interest rates low over long periods of time to help fix unemployment, when in reality low interest rates exacerbate unemployment and income inequality (execs get higher pay when they do layoffs and when they acquire competitors). **The fed’s solution to the problem is contributing to making the problem larger, and they’ll keep giving us more of the solution until the problem is fixed.** And as structural unemployment continues, universal basic income and other social safety net policies will expand, funded by debt. Excess debt then further encourages the fed to keep interest rates low, because who wants to cut off benefits to people in need? And then low long term interest rates create more unemployment and more need for the safety nets. It’s a vicious cycle, but one that is extremely positive for the price of precious metals, especially silver. + +And guess what expensive robotics, electric vehicles, satellites, rockets, medical imaging tech, solar panels, and a bevy of other fast-growing technologies utilize as an input? Silver. Silver’s industrial demand is driven by the fact that compared to other elements it is the best conductor of electricity, its highly reflective, and it extremely durable. So, encouraging more capital investment in these industries via green government mandates and via low interest rates only drives demand for silver further. + +One might wonder how with high unemployment we can actually get inflation. Well government is more than replacing lost income so far, just take a look at how disposable income has trended during this time of high unemployment. It’s also notable that all of the political momentum is in the direction of increasing incomes through government programs even further. + +https://preview.redd.it/mnfd5gr7iwo61.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=34c7b3ddfc9808b29e08bd7619d47d1f51f840fc + +The spark of inflation is what ignites rallies in precious metals like silver, and these rallies typically extend far beyond what the inflation rates would justify on their own. This is because precious metals are insurance against fiat collapse. People don’t worry about fiat insurance when inflation is low, but when inflation rises it becomes very relevant at a time that there isn’t much capacity to satisfy the surge in demand for this insurance. Sure, inflation might only peak at 5% or 10% and while silver rises 100%, but if things spiral out of control its worth paying for silver even after a big rally, because the equities you hold aren’t going to be worth much in real terms if the wheels truly came off the wagon. The Venezuela example proves that fact, but even during the 1970s equities had negative real rates of return and the US never had hyperinflation, just high inflation. + +During these times of higher inflation, holders of PMs aren’t necessarily expecting a fiat collapse, they just want 1%, 5%, or even 10% of their portfolio to be allocated to holding gold and silver as a hedge. During the 40-year bond bull market of decreasing inflation this portfolio allocation to precious metals lost favor, and virtually no one has it any longer. I can guarantee most people don’t even have the options of buying gold or silver in their 401ks, let alone actually owning any. A move back into having even a small precious metals allocation is what drives silver up by 30x or more. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR: SLV is a scam, as are basically all of the silver ETFs.** + +If you do want to buy silver you'll buy physical when premiums are low, or PSLV. + +Disclaimer: I am a random guy on the internet and this entire post should be regarded as my personal opinion +I recently needed to have outpatient surgery. We pay through the nose for good insurance, so it luckily didn't cost me too much out of pocket. But I paid very close attention to the paperwork and knew exactly what I should be charged. + +However, the other day in the mail I got a bill for $150 for the Covid test that the surgery center required before surgery. A charge for the test was never mentioned in my paperwork. It was not optional, and I had choice in where it was done. (I had to drive 40 minutes one way for a 15 second swab). + +Seeing that bill made me feel so angry, and sick to my stomach, and powerless, and betrayed almost. + +The thing is, if I end up having to pay that bill, it's not going to hurt me. It doesn't mean we'll go hungry, it doesn't mean another bill isn't going to be paid, it doesn't mean going into debt. And if I'd known about the charge ahead of time, it wouldn't have changed my decision to have surgery, as my condition had gotten to the point where it was severely impacting my life and ability to work. + +But I have worked SO hard for so many years to dig myself out of debt, and to try and make a better future for my family and there is always that feeling that everything you've built could be destroyed at any minute. + +Sometimes I wonder if I will ever have enough money in savings to feel safe. + +Edit: As for the bill, I was able to discover that the testing facility had never received my insurance information and they will now be billing my insurance, who hopefully will cover it all. +My current landlord is an 85 year old woman who purchased the condo I am living in 40 years ago and has been in pretty much profit-first (only taxes and HOA) for the last 20 years. She pretty much purchased a home, lived in it for years, paid it off before moving out or soon thereafter. Then she purchased her next home and started over again. + +I really admire and would like to emulate this approach, because she was never over-leveraged. She owns 10 properties, all fully paid off. She has no mortgage on any properties. Her tenants are paying for her retirement, and she lives quite lavishly on this income. + +Is there any reason I shouldn't do the same? It seems to me that millions in mortgages to have the same 10 properties mortgaged is a risky way to live, though you would get there quite a bit sooner. + +(I am a tenant currently looking for myfirst multi-family and saving for my own real estate investment down payment!) +1. Egregious "final attempt" of short selling occurred on black friday, to manipulate the close below $200, to prevent $200 strikes being ITM +2. Reports are in, that retail buy orders did not go through during regular trading hours on black friday (which happened to be the worst black friday for the Dow Jones since 1931) +3. Citadel curiously stopped after hours trading on GME at 3:37pm EST +4. Reports are in, that retail orders were delayed until monday +5. Because of B.1.1.529 (otherwise known as the 'horrific' killer Omicron virus strain) NSCC's capital requirements for margin (due to value-at-risk and EVWMA volatility coefficients increasing) just went up, while value of other collateral went down (across the board assets), thereby causing margin calls for funds holding outsized short positions on GME stock. This is verified by twitter reports of pending short-position liquidations based on failures to satisfy these margin calls. +6. Last time the VVIX jumped at these levels (skying through 138 in full 'crazy' mode) was January 27th, the day before the GME squeeze and before the 'buy' button was illegally removed by brokers +7. Friday's close put GME at a 4 week TTM squeezer indicator on the weekly +8. Gamestop's app (from the appstore) just jumped to top 30 from 68 +9. Loopring's SDK complete and L2 Wallet complete. Waiting on Fiat payment processor to confirm. (liftoff imminent) +10. GameStop's E T H address received multiple $15,000 test payments, in a test of the new non-fungible asset ( N F T ) marketplace +11. Ramp &amp; Flexa Network to be used for LoopRing's Fiat currency processors, for Gamestop's counterfactual Non-Fungible asset ( N F T ) wallet +12. Last time VIX was that high, the day after GME exploded. + +https://preview.redd.it/v6fj7nqbmb281.png?width=415&amp;format=png&amp;auto=webp&amp;s=b643a2057b8679093282ca7dc77155f0822106af + +TL;DR: Buckle up, we moon 🚀. BUY HODL DRS. nO fiNanCial adViCe. + +Credit to u/Money-Maker111. Thanks 🙏 for the work. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +I'm thinking there may be an uptick in clean energy and green small caps after the upcoming COP26. + +Any thoughts? Anyone specifically looking at EGR or GNX as plays? + +Could be rockets? I have no fucking idea. I need a clean energy guru to guide me. +Lady ape here! + +Can someone kind enough please attach the link to the DD from last year that explained how crypto, stocks and our beloved GME would head downwards, but GME won’t crash before MOASS? I told my husband about the DD when I read it last year, and he just responded, “Okay”. Nothing else. + +Now, he’s seeing how BTC is falling and asking more questions about GME and I want show him that this community called it a while back and stays ahead of the MSM puppetry. + +🟣🚀🟣🚀🟣🚀 +Hi everyone. + +I recently decided to put $2.5k into a theta gang account (TDA) to get my feet wet with the strategy. Currently, I have a very small "fun" account that has lost nearly all of it's value (who woulda thunk being on the buying side of risky options plays is a bad idea?) and a ~13k "boring" account in Vanguard with most of it in VTI and a few in high conviction long-term plays that have done fairly well. I have an itch to "manage" my plays in hopes of better gains than the "boring" account, but clearly buy-side options aren't for me. + +Enter: thetagang - so I've set aside $2.5k precisely to test my mettle in thetagang strategies. I've found a few stocks that seem like good CSP/wheel candidates, but my account size is sufficiently small that these plays would be holding a substantial amount of my account in collateral - and I know that diversification is often a good thing regardless of strategy. I also know that CSPs on underlyings worth less than $5 is generally no bueno because the strikes can't be picked well. + +So the question is: is it really a good idea to try my hand at CSPs with my current account size? I've read elsewhere on this sub that, for small accounts, "spreads" might be a good play, but the person in question didn't specify if they meant vertical, calendar, or diagonals, which just adds to my uncertainty. + +I'd like to hear your thoughts on what might be an advisable strategy for an account of my size. Ideally, if this experiment goes well, I would gradually convert a larger fraction of my positions to theta positions - but I need to test the waters first! + +EDIT: I'd like to thank everyone for the helpful comments! I have a lot to digest, and I will likely be starting this voyage this coming week. Obviously more comments are welcome, but it's a lot to read as is! +We made an offer that is in between guide price(1.1m guiding 1.0m to 1.2m). And the agent said the market interest is at 1.4m. I then asked him why is the guide price at 1.0m to 1.2m then, isn’t he underquoting and he said market interest is not the same as having received offers at those levels so he is not obliged to update the price guide. Does that count as underquoting? Can I report the agent to someone? The whole real estate industry is terrible. +It's way too late to be posting but I'm not seeing enough hopium this weekend and decided to deal some myself. It's time for us to touch the sky again and I'm going to explain exactly why this is reality and not just wishful thinking. + +Hedgies have T+13 settlement date from 12/17 to cover all of the FTD's they incurred on using the XRT ETF as a target for their short ladder attacks. Why? because XRT has just been added to the NYSE Threshold Securities list as of 12/17 as brought to light by u/AlexanderHood in his most recent news post. Remember how you were sitting around the last week buying the some of the fattest dips we've seen since early March thinking to yourself "How is Mayo Man affording to short it this hard? There must be some kind of consequence". This is the consequence of Kenny's actions as SHFs can only afford to make GME go so low and when they push it past their limit the fuckery that enabled this price movement usually bites them in the ass in some form inevitably. + +Let's use something you gibbons know very well: Dragonball Z. When Goku realized he was fucked against Vegeta what did he do? He used Kaioken to make himself significantly stronger temporarily but then once he was done he was left almost completely unable to fight back as the technique had ruined his body. This is Kenny right now coming down from the high as he is about to have to cover muchos FTD's ASAP or he will be straight up banned from shorting XRT and will lose one of his most important tricks he uses to hide the real short interest of GME from the chimps and orangutans. Not only is Kenny about be completely out of resources but he is also going to end up just like Goku did and will financially have his back broken by an ape who's tired of his shit. + +&#x200B; + +[Okay Kenny now its our turn.](https://preview.redd.it/xzy62312ug681.jpg?width=668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48a51ea60f1544b5286c1cc819a30a2540d693f0) + +So the next question you probably have is "But Goose when will the hedgies decide to cover their FTDs and get XRT off the NYSE Threshold list?" Well don't worry, I understand that you're smooth and need to get back to eating that 64 pack of Crayola crayons so I figured it out for you. Given the timeframe of the FTDs needing to be covered by T+13 days from 12/17, this would mean that the last possible day they can cover would be 01/06. This leaves us with about three trading weeks until these Shorts on XRT get hit with the ban hammer. Kenny and the gang usually never wait until the last minute to cover their FTD's. Let's presume the covering will be sooner rather than later. I'm assuming that Kenny and company cover their position this upcoming trading week based off of the behavior they exhibited during our futures rollover runups. Remember u/Criand posting about rolls being back on the menu in mid September when Ken and company had already set the stage to bleed us dry over the upcoming month? Kenny might be a financial terrorist and a degenerate but he always makes sure Shitadel is in a good position early and never waits until the last minute to clean his mess (except for MOASS which is about to move him behind the nearest Wendy's). + +According to multiple apes who are much smarter than I (as well as JPMorgan Chase), we are expecting to see significant price movement around the tail end of January as many options purchased to create synthetic shares to cover FTDs from the January sneeze will be expiring leaving them naked and afraid. If you were the hedgies would you leave the XRT conundrum you have to cover until January or cover them next week? The price is going to run this week as they cover the shares they shorted in the XRT basket. This will come into Christmas and the following Monday. They will most likely presume shorting the absolute shit out of it until the time for the January rematch comes. If you need anymore confirmation of massive incoming green days don't forget that this last Friday Meme Lord RC himself tweeted out a poop emoji. You know why? because the hedgies are about to shit themselves. + +&#x200B; + +[Let's not forget about that sweet delta sensitivity. ](https://preview.redd.it/kcizhten2h681.jpg?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=76f97eebbfe26f73d6e98aed699708e5b3a01f79) + +"But Goose why would the hedgies buying in really make us run up anymore than it usually does?" Well I'm going to point you to a DD u/yelyah2 recently posted about how GME's delta sensitivity is so hot right now. I don't expect you guys to actually head over and read the entire thing. This post alone is most likely the 741st DD post you've read this month so here's the TLDR for you (but please read it it's amazing). + +> **TLDR (in case you dumb dumbs didn't find it at the very top): Conditions are primed right now for a significant increase in hedgie buying power. The delta sensitivity test spike is a harbinger of change, and more often then not... significant price increases....** + +In essence, the post mentions that the delta is so sensitive right now that any amount of shares that the hedgies buy right now will essentially have a bonus multiplier effect on the price. This is just like when you're playing Guitar Hero and you need more points so you activate that sweet star power and for every note you hit you get eight times the points. Here is a visual aid that the OP made to help you Baboons comprehend what the Rock is cooking. + +[Green line means hedgies can't afford to buy without a massive price increase.](https://preview.redd.it/pmj6bt7k4h681.png?width=1421&format=png&auto=webp&s=3102a228c90815f67fd8ee3b4450a31a2c6da57e) + +This may very well lead into the last runup in price we see until the fated battle in January. Unless something else came along to put the hedgies into an even worse position, such as a pivotal announcement by Loopring. It could be that they are in cahoots with GME and want hedgie blood. + +&#x200B; + +[Even Mayonnaise can't save you now.](https://preview.redd.it/4wsg1ujn6h681.png?width=1884&format=png&auto=webp&s=f762c2001535d41b3722fab41a85bc3f4d3c304c) + +An announcement by Loopring is imminent as stated in their goals for this quarter (concluding on December 31st). This places this smack dab at the end of the second trading week hedgies who shorted XRT to oblivion will have to clean their mess. We are about to see what happens when hedgies have to cover FTDs while being exposed to abnormally high delta sensitivity and the NFT announcement we've been waiting for since July. Any kind of NFT based announcement is going to send us past Mars and on our way to tendietown and should silence naysayers who think think that Gamestop has no future in the industry. + +**TL;DR: The hedgies are very vulnerable to a price increase if their hand is forced into buying due to GME's current delta sensitivity test spike. XRT being added to the NYSE Threshold list has done just that as they now are on a T+13 timer (Jan 6th) to buy this dip or else they will be banned from shorting this particular ETF. Not only is this looking bad for them but a Loopring based announcement is imminent and due by December 31st.** + +TA;DR: KABOOM BY END OF MONTH. \*THROWS SHIT\* +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I'm a dog owner. I LOVE dogs. But I have a dirtbag tenant who hasn't paid rent since 2019. He has taken FULL advantage of the moratorium. We don't have a court date until almost June. He has 7 VERY aggressive pitbulls that he probably uses for fighting. Is there ANYTHING I can do legally to get this tenant out or remove the dogs? It's against city rules to have that many dogs but everyone is so lame-duck these days that it seems the police wont do anything about it. +Hey I hope this ok to post. + +So my girlfriend has been getting paid an extra £500 a month for the last 4 months. Her employer hasn’t realised, and still doesn’t know. + +Now she’s really stressed on how to approach the situation. She feels really dumb for not noticing either. + +Any advice on what’s best to do would be super helpful. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +>The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. +> +>Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%. +> +>Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer. +> +>But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period. + +Source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html) +Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, shared data from YCharts that showed how Bitcoin brought massive returns to investors when compared to other asset classes, like stocks, bonds, gold and the US dollar. Annualized returns, showed Bitcoin’s ten years returns were 203.5% 10 times larger than Nasdaq 100's 20%. Currently, Bitcoin is on another bull run with the price above $20,000. +[https://cryptocrunchapp.com/news/bitcoins-8-years-annualized-returns-beats-stock-market-10-times/](https://cryptocrunchapp.com/news/bitcoins-8-years-annualized-returns-beats-stock-market-10-times/) +Turned on the news this morning while doing dishes and landed in the middle of a story about how an unemployed couple is handling the pandemic. These people were too happy to be interviewed by accident. According to them, the stimulus is enough to keep them from losing their home and make minimum payments on their credit cards. The story closes with the "good" news that they may both have part-time employment with a company that does outdoor concerts and venues. + +This whole time the over-paid TV narrator throws as much positive spin as possible over the crumbling of these people's lives and the bad economy we're all struggling with. They tell us to be happy that we can "tread water" in these uncertain times. + +How tone deaf are these people? Is this more mind controlling by the media to try and make us forget how bad most of us are doing while the rich get richer? + +I don't like "treading water" while some rich asshole circles me in his yacht telling me that we're all in this together. +[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-yellen/act-big-on-stimulus-bidens-treasury-nominee-yellen-to-tell-lawmakers-idUSKBN29O1WX?il=0](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-yellen/act-big-on-stimulus-bidens-treasury-nominee-yellen-to-tell-lawmakers-idUSKBN29O1WX?il=0) + +Wouldn't this basically destroy the whole idea of compound interest? How would someone who is already fatFIRE deal with a tax like this? +So I know the entire country is feeling inflation and fear is at an all time high in anticipation, however, I was wondering was there this much fear before 2008-2009 happened and equities dropped 70%? It seems like we are going through the drops now, and not before. What I mean is, before 2008 nobody is aware anything is going to happen, then it happens and everyone talking about it. This is strange as EVERYONE seems to be talking about recession and inflation. To me this seems suspect and because everyone is aware, I don't think it's actually going to get that much worst or at least, we're already going through the worst of it right now. Can anyone from that time period speak for the environment? + +Edit: Many are saying we are already in a recession. I'm not disagreeing on that point I agree actually. What I'm saying is, we're talking about the next huge crash when recession turns into worst: job loss, more inflation, etc. +So this reporter asked Warren Buffett for the best money advice that he’s ever received. Warren’s reply was, "Just YOLO everything on SPY calls" ...Just kidding ;) His actual reply was chapters 8 and 20 of the intelligent investor. Here’s a quick recap of those chapters for the sub: + +1. Having a proper attitude toward markets +2. Looking at stocks as businesses +3. And operating with a margin of safety + +I think these are fundamental philosophies of investing that are as relevant today as they were 60 years ago. Here’s a quick breakdown of each of them: + +**Having a proper attitude toward markets** + +If you’re investing in stocks and your portfolio is mostly equities, you’ve gotta be okay with some volatility. I think in the book Ben Graham says something like you should expect your stocks to drop by 30%+ at some point for any number of reasons. + +If that’s too much for you to stomach, maybe having an all equity portfolio is not the best approach. You don’t want to see the market value drop and freak out and sell at the worst time. This happened to a friend of mine in March and he’s been kicking himself for it. + +**Looking at stocks as businesses** + +This is a good reminder. Essentially when you’re buying a stock, you’re a silent partner. It’s a different mindset than being an active trader. If you bought a car dealership as an investment, you wouldn’t be constantly checking to see what it was worth on an hourly basis. Same thing applies to stock investments. It takes time for a business to increase in value. The hourly/daily stock fluctuations are mostly noise. Best to ignore because they can get you into an active trading mindset which is no bueno if you want to practice value investing. + +**Operate with a margin of safety** + +Charlie says that a business will roughly earn it’s return on equity over a long time scale. That’s why he likes high quality businesses that have high ROEs. Buying a business with a margin of safety is good because it: + +1. Gives you a safety buffer - Maybe some of your calculations for the intrinsic were a bit off. If you have a margin of safety, even if you analysis has flaws, you might still buy below intrinsic value +2. Long term you’ll hopefully earn a return from both the price going back to the intrinsic value and from any additional growth that the business goes through + +[This podcast episode](https://open.spotify.com/episode/2vsFfGT5xHXRpAtsTKlb6S) goes into a lot more depth on each of the above \[14:00 length\] + +Do you guys think these are still relevant? What’s your best money advice that you’ve ever received? +I've worked in the service industry for close to a decade and moved up to management nearly 6 years ago. From night manager, to assistant general manager, to general manager. I've seen it all, I've done everything in this industry and it has killed me. I finally told my boss this past week that I wanted to get out. It was liberating. No more closing at 3AM, getting home at 3:30AM, asleep by 4:30AM and then back to open at 10AM. No more disrespect from customers. I work for myself. I answer to no one. I can spend time with my girlfriend and family. Finally have the time to pursue passions and hobbies that I've been too burnt out to even think about. This industry truly beats you down until you are nothing but a shell of your former self. + + I have never felt very passionate about any job I've had in the past but after trading for the past year, I feel so drawn to it unlike any other path I've been down in the past. I started with $5k in january and currently have $40k in my trading account. (And that's after taking out the initial $5k investment.) + +It wasn't easy and this past year has been filled with many hair pulling and anxious moments but ultimately I've learned from every bad trade, every sleepless night, and every impulsive, fear filled sell. I've honed in my emotions, become far less anxious with each trade and learned to trust my instincts. + +I found a passion for trading. I love learning the ins and outs of the market and building something for myself from the ground up. Completely self-reliant. I am very lucky that I currently have no debt, a solid safety net of savings, and very little monthly expenses beyond rent and utilities. + +I am extremely excited for the future and can't wait to dive in head first and do this full time. +My dad was laid off in June 2016 and has struggled to find a stable job since. He and my mom live in a $350k house that they’ll never pay off. I’ve told them until I’m blue in face to sell the house and find a cheaper living option but they refuse to do so. + +This morning he sent me this email: + +>“I am in deep financial turmoil and need help. My credit is shot and can't get a loan on my own. I need $6,000 for the following expenses. + +>Mortgage $3,800.00 +Neighborhood HOA $1,400.00 +Utility_Gas $288.17 +Utility_Water $202.36 +Utility_Electric $191.00 +Wells Fargo $140.00 + +>You can get a personal loan for me from Sun Trust or Wells Fargo bank. I will make the monthly payments till the loan is paid in full. If you don't want to do it or, can't do it, please let me know.” + +The last thing I want is a high interest bank loan in my name, but I also don’t want my parents to be broke. My solution is for them to sell the house, pay off the mortgage and get back the roughly $70-$80k they have tied up in it, and use that to rent somewhere cheap. That amount could potentially sustain them for years until my dad is old enough to collect social security (he’s 61 now). However, I don’t know a lot about how mortagages and home ownership work to know if this is a viable plan. Any advice is appreciated. + +EDIT: To clarify, these are not just one month’s worth of expenses. Their monthly house payment is about $1600/month and the HOA fee is yearly, but both have late fees because they’re overdue. +I'm really scared. I've been close to poverty during most of my life so far (I'm 28). I live in a shithole country that pays shit. I started my GME journey back in march with a measly $60 when it was $280 per share, and then another $60 when it was $260...Since then I've put any available money I could. Now I'm holding steady with with just X shares. + +I'm afraid of what life will bring me once GME makes me wealthy, I'm afraid I won't know what to do. I've never held more than $600 in my bank account ever. + +Please hold me. + + +Edit: I just want to say that I was not expecting this amount of overwhelming support. Thank you everyone for your great comments, suggestions and ideas. I can't reply to all of you but I'm trying to read every single comment. We hodl together! +Just to let ya’ll know, if you started working from home and isn’t really driving your car that often due to the Coronavirus outbreak and social distancing, you can actually call your auto insurance provider and request a lower premium for the duration of the situation because commuting distance is a factor that affects your premium. +I called today and lowered my monthly bill by 30 bucks in two minutes, definitely worth a try if you wanna save some money! + +Edit: Remember to change it back when things go back to normal. + +Edit: I use Geico insurance in Texas, results may vary depending on insurance company and state +My wife has $15k sitting in her old bank account and I figured we should just put that into something that grows. I was looking into putting it into an index fund and basically just forget about it for the next 20-30years. I was interested in Vangaurd VTSAX or VTWAX. Would that be a good idea? If so, do i just make a vangaurd account and buy 15k worth of one of them? Any other recommendations of index fund for what im trying to do? + + +Thanks! +Final update below***** + +This could age terrible but I am convinced the market will not survive another two weeks. Why you might ask……..Kids + +I’ve been tracking school district corona virus dashboards. I haven’t found a district in a major metropolitan area that hasn’t seen a significant increases in both student and faculty populations since opening. I’m talking some as high as 10% current infections less than 10 days into the school year. Politics aside……shutdowns are coming at least for many schools. Which in turn creates the issue of who will watch kids. Hospitals are maxed out in several parts of the country. Politicians trying to look tough saying they are keeping their states open will all crumble when the news cycle is flooded with pediatric covid cases. Nobody wants to see kids on ventilators. Politicians are suppose to kiss babies not kill them. + +This will send markets reeling. This is a terrible reality and not the catalyst I want, but the train is headed down the tracks. + +TLDR: schools open - covid transmission wildfire - hospitals already close to capacity - shutdowns coming - crash coming + + +Edit: obviously very speculative and not meant to debate covid anything. I get some of the hate towards the post. Im looking at this from the perspective of the data shows the game should be over but it’s not. There are multiple counter parties that will be playing damage control from MOASS if they can survive and so any story that can provide some cover or deflect from the fuckery that brought us here would be welcome. Shit this would be the easiet narrative to play the victim card for traditional Wall Street making retail traders the terrible pandemic profiteers. + +Edit 2: this is not financial advice and should not be used to make investment decisions. + +Edit 3: my timeline may have been too tight but today we have seen article claiming delta cases have peaked. I think this is the setup for the gut punch. I’ve seen some districts with very concerning increases today and yesterday. Some as high as 500 new infections reported in a single day which is very alarming. UTSW for example is preparing for hospitalizations to be 3x higher than the surge last year but the market is claiming delta has peaked. Disconnect + +Edit 4: well ICU utilization is now higher than any time since the start of the pandemic but no talk of shutdowns. I might be wrong on this being the catalyst but the situation is grim. Stay safe. Try not to need a hospital for anything. + +Edit 5: Well it’s been 10 trading days since I made this prediction and the market hasn’t crashed. I sincerely apologize if anyone had their hopes riding on this post. This I’m afraid is just another scary indication the market is detached from reality. I’ve never seen multiple school districts of over 50k students running a 10 day average of over 10% absentee and the NICU / PICU utilization is at historic levels. I’m not convinced we have peaked based on numbers I’m seeing vs what the news is touting but again as far as my prediction I was wrong. After MOASS my commitment to doing something substantial towards ending childhood hunger in my area stands. +Jersey City appears to be screwed. Countless apartments for rent. Downtown units for as low as 1500/month that used to be over 2k+. Countless for-sale signs on every block. + +Yet construction is booming on countless new high-rises. This will only lead to more dropping in rents and flight from the area as the supply of units grows with less demand. + +Jersey City was a commuter city to NYC. NYC is going to be screwed for many years(hopefully it will one day recover but not soon). Now that there is no reason to work in NYC there is no reason to live in Jersey City. We are already seeing fight from JC in mass scale which will only continue as people leave to cheaper states and areas. Why live here when you can keep a 6 figure job and have a nice house with land? All the cultural activities that drew people to cities are closed for foreseeable future and crime is surging in NYC at record numbers. + +TLDR: WFH, civil unrest, and covid mismanagement by NYC will have a cascade effect bringing down the entire "tri-state" area as people flee for greener pastures. +Hi guys! I'm 20 year old and i'm looking to start my investment journey. I want to create a simple portfolio that i will hold forever. As of now, i'm still in school studying actuarial science and i will reconsider my portfolio allocations in only 5 years when i will be able to take more risk. I'm thinking of + +VOO 35% + +VTI 30% + +VXUS 10% + +BND 25% + +Every month, i will buy with these % and will rebalance the portfolio once a year. 25% in bonds might seems a lot but i'm trying to listen to the good old Benjamin Graham. Let me know what you think. Is there other ETF i should consider to hold for life? Is my portfolio allocation okay? +Everyones favorite ETF ... ARKK. What are your 2021 predictions? + +**Questions** + +* Will ARKK beat S&P 500 in 2021? + * If you're brave, give a price target. +* Why? + +Thought it would be fun to make predictions and look at them in a year ... Should be a learning experience. + +I'll start. I've been an ARK bear for a while (probably a little biased to be honest). + +**Prediction** + +* Underperform the market. + +**Why** + +*The fundamentals of many of the top holdings are out of hand* + + * P/E are crazy + * P/S might be more accurate, given growth focus. This metric is also crazy. Top 10 holdings all have P/S ratio above 10 (remove SQ and most are around 20). + * AMZN, GOOG, AAPL never had these P/S during most of their growth story (my data doesn't go back to founding). Today are all WELL below 10. + * TSLA valuation is too high. Stock price is currently \~$400 above overly optimistic [valuations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVc6CfAjAbM). Only 10% of the fund, but a significant pullback would hurt. + * Many of these stocks are pure momentum at this point, not good long-term. + +*The comeback isn't great for ARK funds* + + * During COVID personal savings rates were the [highest in recorded US history](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT) + * In a low rate environment, with many companies impacted by COVID, this money found its way into tech/innovation. When the present is temporarily bad and rates are low, bet on the future. + * When the world comes back, a lot of this money leaves savings, which hurts all equities ... slightly + * Withdrawan saving is spent on discretionary, these beaten-down sectors start to look attractive and opp cost of tech/innovation investment increases. Potentially kills momentum. + * As we get closer to rate increases, growth stocks look less attractive (future cash flow discounted more heavily) + +What do you think? +**Didn't read the TL;DR:** + +**Some meme stock and Citadel hedge funds linked to Puerto Rican debt, where hedge funds can buy credit default swaps and sometimes bankrupt towns/cities. UBS and other banks sold shady bonds that have different SEC reporting requirements, and because PR is a territory (not a state) it can't declare bankruptcy the same way.** + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR:** + +* **Banana! Found a GME link! A couple of the hedge funds involved in increasing holdings in risky Puerto Rican debt as safer mutual funds decreased theirs (HFs sometimes through potentially nonpublic info), might include Taconic Capital (had puts on GME), GoldenTree (puts on sticky floor) and Canyon Capital (linked to Citadel to raise money in China alongside Oaktree Capital, who has Evergrande links).** +* **They can also buy credit default swaps on these bonds and sometimes single-handedly bankrupt a town/city.** +* **Tying into welp007's post, big banks piled on Puerto Rico with billions in debt in what was considered a Madoff-level Ponzi scheme between 2006 through 2014 at least, leaving the US territory turbo fucked before it got hit by a Cat 4 hurricane. The bonds sold were considered "less transparent" than what would happen on the mainland, so this is prob why the SEC is fucking ducking FOIA requests.** +* **Maybe UBS and all these fuckers loaded up Puerto Rico with debt because of a "Treasury Put" guarantee (that some government org would pay for it when it went tits up).** +* **The Puerto Rico fraud might be related to Detroit's bankruptcy, and maybe when Detroit went titties' up it had collateral damage and fucked the Puerto Rican municipal bonds and now SEC and everyone is trying to hide the shit under the rug.** +* **The Puerto Rico debt story might also relate into why they aren't being let to be a state, since US territories have different bankruptcy rules (!) Municipal bonds for PR also have heavy investment from colleges in their endowments (Harvard, Yale).** + +&#x200B; + +[Holy fuck, this is me rn, been editing this Speculation\/Op now \\"Possible DD\\" post on\/off for hrs](https://preview.redd.it/ig01xv8xo5h81.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=976748f2959789c3df0920d30043683b5358c6f1) + +EDIT: Will keep adding edits as I go. Changed flair from "Speculation/Opinion" to "Possible DD since felt had enough info, can provide sources on papers if needed too! + +This post is referencing u/welp007 's recent post here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/spfyud/over\_the\_past\_ten\_months\_the\_securities\_and/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/spfyud/over_the_past_ten_months_the_securities_and/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t8o7iyy255h81.png?width=920&format=png&auto=webp&s=0da93796d9c3df6127848c867579451bd0968eab + +TL;DR on that post: **Welp got an anonymous DM by someone who wanted to help him get the word out on something** that he felt was being even MORE shut down by the SEC than even fucking Evergrade(!) + +&#x200B; + +**In the post, he mentioned how "American Thinker" 's Joseph Lawler mentioned the SEC has been giving fucking STIFF Heismans nonstop (or per** u/mohicanrobot, the ol' Dustin Martin "don't argues" for you Aussie apes!) **on FOIA requests (Freedom of Information Act) related to the municipal bond default in Puerto Rico, the BIGGEST bond default in America's history EVER.** + +&#x200B; + +[SEC on that stiff Heisman for some fuckery in honor of Super Bowl weekend I see](https://preview.redd.it/7h88xf39t4h81.png?width=778&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f029ecf8fa2143258a1aa6b5718eacef6397280) + +It went all the way the way up to a federal court in California where the SEC said "we don't know what you're talking about" w**hen others found they have fucking 2800 pages of documents on it and nearly 270,000(!) emails referencing it referencing a billion dollar Ponzi scheme on the level of fucking Bernie Madoff.** + +&#x200B; + +**Big banks (Citi, Wells Fargo, BoFa) had their scheme collapse in 2016, potentially bribed senators to kill investigations into it by the DOJ and now the SEC is caught in yet ANOTHER 2 lawsuits saying they fucking aided and abetted this shit.** + +&#x200B; + +[Citi, Wells Fargo, BoFA agree](https://preview.redd.it/s5axw1kng5h81.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=61ddbd1a0014197135b23b6cf1f06fefec2c68c0) + +I did some digging and found it related to this article perhaps: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fb0vf1xkt4h81.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca19a5fb16ffcb8e2953fbb5a02be185f755161d + +[https://www.npr.org/2018/05/02/607032585/how-puerto-ricos-debt-created-a-perfect-storm-before-the-storm](https://www.npr.org/2018/05/02/607032585/how-puerto-ricos-debt-created-a-perfect-storm-before-the-storm) + +This NPR article covers the aftermath of Hurricane Maria which devastated Puerto Rico 5 years ago in September 2017 . It discusses how Puerto Rico was fucked by finances as it borrowed billions of dollars by big banks as it teetered on default and they took advantage of that (they could literally only afford 5 building code inspectors for an island of 3.5 million people). + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +After US Congress stopped a 1996 tax break for the island, by 2006 they spun into recession and needed to borrow. They opted for bonds under the promise of tax-free earnings. + +&#x200B; + +>**"Fund managers, they will not admit this now, but when Puerto Rico was selling debt like pancakes, they loved Puerto Rico debt,**" Marxuach said. **"You would put ... these Puerto Rico bonds into your portfolio and since they had slightly higher interest rates and no taxes attached to them, you immediately looked like a genius.** You just bumped up the entire return." "So that's your bonus," he added. "**That's your new Mercedes, your new yacht."** + +&#x200B; + +The badass duo of Pam and Russ Martens also discussed whether everyday Americans have exposure to Puerto Rican debt back in 2017. The low tax prob also explains the appeal: + +https://preview.redd.it/0v5ndne895h81.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eb52d41960b0efbb4ef46bb1d1ba09ec2fa9275 + +&#x200B; + +>**The reality is that a large percentage of Puerto Rico’s debt is held in tax-free municipal bonds and municipal bond mutual funds, owned not by Wall Street banks or tycoons, but by mom and pop investors seeking tax-free income.** (As a result of Congressional legislation, the interest on municipal bonds issued by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, its political subdivisions and public corporations, is not subject to Federal, state or local taxes. This has made the individual bonds and mutual funds particularly attractive in places like New York City where residents pay a Federal, state and local income tax.) +> +>In July, Reuters reported that Oppenheimer’s various tax-free mutual funds had the largest mutual fund holdings of Puerto Rico bonds as of April 30, totaling a whopping $7.3 billion face amount....**most of that debt is trading at a large discount to the face amount and the values,** reported as of June 30, 2017 to the SEC, do not reflect the new market lows experienced by the bonds since Hurricane Maria... +> +>In its September SEC filing, OppenheimerFunds notes that it has set up a special web section to provide updates on the situation with its Puerto Rico bond holdings.  +> +>**Tellingly, those web pages have not been updated since the devastation from Hurricane Maria occurred, suggesting Oppenheimer Funds understands it’s now in uncharted waters** + +&#x200B; + +So pre-hurricane big banks flew in from NYC constantly to load them up with debt between 2006 to 2011. But by the time that they realized in 2011 that Puerto Rico had TOO MUCH debt, **instead of stopping THEY FUCKING KEPT SELLING THEM MORE.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n0di925gu4h81.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5b7b50c1f382f3a3669e42abb4039abbcca3227 + +Here's a detail of the fuckery: + +>**Many of the bonds were specifically designed to be sold to Puerto Ricans, packaged into special funds that were less transparent than anything regulators would allow on the mainland.** Regulations against things such as banks recommending their own bond deals to investors didn't apply on the island. +> +>According to court records filed in the aftermath of the island's economic calamity, brokers sold thousands of Puerto Ricans these special funds. This left hundreds of millions of dollars of the island's wealth concentrated in increasingly tenuous investments — at the worst possible time. + +&#x200B; + +Here's an SEC comment talking about whether every day mom and pop ape investors like YOU even know this shit is in their portfolio (can someone dig more here pretty plz): [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-20/s70820-7502069-221916.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-20/s70820-7502069-221916.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[From the SEC comment above](https://preview.redd.it/z32z49w1d5h81.png?width=782&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc44b145fe9fefaa57a79bc0fb027ee513b24690) + +&#x200B; + +Ok, now I can see how the SEC may be implicated if the bonds were "less transparent" than what they would allow let's say in New York state. + +**Among the banks fined for this fuckery were--surprise! home to Osama Bin Laden's bank account and biggest dark pool owner in the US!--UBS at $34 million for a loan scheme**. UBS and 4 other banks were also fined. You can see that here: [https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2014-246](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2014-246) + +&#x200B; + +[What fun, you have Schwab, IBrokers, UBS, TD, and even Wedbush, home of Michael \\"Gamestop's NFT Marketplace is al-Qaeda's fav\\" Pachter](https://preview.redd.it/fhsqsd38w4h81.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=29981f9ebab7c54e6d3289bce1f5750541f8e6f5) + +&#x200B; + +And fucking despite this, in 2014, THEY DOUBLED DOWN AGAIN. + +>In 2014, Puerto Rico and a group of banks teamed up for another bond deal. At $3.5 billion, it was the largest municipal junk bond offering in U.S. history....**But some bankers and brokers, several of whom worked on the deal, described the 2014 bond as more than just a bond deal. They said it was also an exit strategy for the banks.** + +&#x200B; + +Almost 1/4th or $900 million didn't even go to Puerto Rico. Instead you had earnings from these chucklefucks: "Barclays, which led the bond deal, received almost $500 million; Banco Santander received $99 million; JPMorgan, $74 million; Morgan Stanley, $24 million; among others." + +&#x200B; + +And how does this fucking story end? The bonds crashed, Puerto Rican investors lost savings, pensions, retirements. Hospitals shut down and bridges and the grid faltered just a few years before the entire island got fucked by a major Cat 4 hurricane. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6962cn30z4h81.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=da3ae4fbbed290866dc794b753c4632d50ad151d + +**There was a lot of fucked up shit during the hurricane, perhaps most relevant to our cause here is how a $300 million contract was handed off to tiny Montana firm Whitefish Energy Holdings, which was expected to help turn the lights back on in the state but it only had TWO fulltime employees.** + +&#x200B; + +We also find some papers come back to revisit this fuckery, including this one called " What Went Wrong?: The Puerto Rican Debt Crisis, The “Treasury Put,” And The Failure Of Market Discipline." Which says that **DON'T WORRY FAM, THE TREASURY WAS GONNA BAIL OUT ANY FUCKERY:** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xuvfwfbxw4h81.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=572b2d7b13f4c4b36b9693b42cfd86c7da8f29b8 + +>What went wrong? Why did seemingly rational bond investors continue to purchase Puerto Rican debt with only a modest risk premium, even though the macroeconomic fundamentals were dismal? Why did financial markets fail to exercise market discipline and restrict capital flows to Puerto Rico? Given gloomy macroeconomic fundamentals and relatively low risk premia, investors were either myopic/misinformed, or Puerto Rican debt was implicitly insured by the U.S. government. +> +>**This paper examines the latter hypothesis, which we label the “Treasury Put.” The expectation of a federal bailout was perfectly reasonable given past behavior by the federal government, starting with the prior bailout of the city of New York.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +I hope a wrinkle brain can look at that paper but it also goes into the failing years of Detroit and how it might have been related to Puerto Rico's municipal bond failures. **They describe the "treasury put" as "...the implicit guarantee -- as perceived by investors -- from a government agency to provide support in the event of financial distress by the issuer of Puerto Rican bonds."** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/q7zecd12a5h81.png?width=1094&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ac2444f05f1858fa394ebb35b2b7cb937368f7c + +If you've ever watched "Hypernormalization" by Adam Curtis (here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS\_c2qqA-6Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS_c2qqA-6Y)), he talks about how NYC went bankrupt and how the banks managed it. The relevant quotes: + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +>**In 1975, New York City was on the verge of collapse. For 30 years, the politicians who ran the city had borrowed more and more money from the banks to pay for its growing services and welfare.** But in the early '70s, the middle classes fled from the city and the taxes they paid disappeared with them. +> +>So, the banks lent the city even more. But then, they began to get worried about the size of the growing debt and whether the city would ever be able to pay it back. And then one day in 1975, the banks just stopped. **The city held its regular meeting to issue bonds in return for the loans, overseen by the city's financial controller.** +> +>...The banks were supposed to turn up at 11am, but it soon became clear that none of them were going to appear. The meeting was rescheduled for 2pm. and the banks promised they would turn up \[instead at 4 PM\]. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xmzemr66b5h81.png?width=1032&format=png&auto=webp&s=75cc70bc0a64645ca784cbcec4eca6a36a6cb6e6 + +&#x200B; + +>What happened that day in New York marked a radical shift in power. The banks insisted that in order to protect their loans they should be allowed to take control of the city. The city appealed to the President, but he refused to help, so a new committee was set up to manage the city's finances. +> +>Out of nine members, eight of them were bankers. It was the start of an extraordinary experiment where the financial institutions took power away from the politicians and started to run society themselves. **The city had no other option.** +> +>The bankers enforced what was called "austerity" on the city...This was a new kind of politics. The old politicians believed that crises were solved through negotiation and deals The bankers had a completely different view. They were just the representatives of something that couldn't be negotiated with - the logic of the market. To them, there was no alternative to this system. **It should run society.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +History lesson aside, m**y understanding is that they bailed out NYC back in the day, so maybe the big banks said "well it doesnt matter how many fucking bonds we sell Puerto Rico, let's sell them since the US Treasury will fucking pay when this shit goes tits up".** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zz022tup15h81.png?width=475&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d68442ff01fd54a1dab8099a2306d15b45cada1 + +Seems this relates to the city of Detroit too. **This paper talks about this more too (" Do Municipal Bonds Pose a Systemic Risk? Evidence from the Detroit Bankruptcy").** + +&#x200B; + +Around 2014 ish, Detroit's pensions were underfunded during their crisis, to the tune of them being 19% of the city debt. Ofc it wasn't the only thing but a big part: + +&#x200B; + +>The evidence of spillover from Detroit's bankruptcy to abnormal yield changes for other municipalities is relatively limited; only states with heavy pension/financial obligations (Illinois and Puerto Rico) and a few speculative grade securities experienced statistically significant downward repricing + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Also a very fucking interesting sidenote: That same article says when Detroit announced it went bankrupt, there was some price action but it wasn't until a Barron's article SIX MONTHS LATER that Fitch, Moody's and them downgraded the ever loving shit out of the bonds. THEN the Puerto Rican bonds nosedived.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 3: And HOT DAMN u/magnanimus12 with some hot shit and an AMAZING FIND. Looks like they posted about this ages ago and didn't get any traction!: + +&#x200B; + +>If you think that's bad. Ask yourself why big universities like Harvard's endowment was profiting by holding Puerto Rico debt.. +> +>FUCKING TAX FREE + +&#x200B; + +His post featured this CNBC vid: + +https://preview.redd.it/dcma1zj345h81.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=325787f99f50da18856a0f0f251c12b92b7c75aa + +TheIntercept's David Dayen (who IIRC did a lot of shit on penny stock and naked shorting too!) talked about how Harvard's endowment had a $2 BILLION commitment with Boston-based Baupost Group, who was balls deep in Puerto Rican debt. Guess what the owner of that hedge fund said? + +&#x200B; + +>**Klarman has consistently** **dismissed** **cries for debt cancellation for Puerto Rico, saying the island would be better off in the long run repaying its debts. Baupost bought the bonds on the cheap and would reap a huge payday if paid back at face value** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 4: Also given the relationship to all these municipal bond issues, do we recall that JPow is (lightly) balls deep in municipal bonds? I am not saying he's connected AT ALL, but I am curious if any ape can figure what types of bonds he has exposure to? Unfortunately, here's another CNBC source but looks like he has exposure to it nonetheless: + +&#x200B; + +>**Powell held between $1.25 million and $2.5 million of municipal bonds.** They were just a small portion of his total reported assets. **While the bonds were purchased before 2019, they were held while the Fed last year bought more than $5 billion in munis**, including one from the state of Illinois purchased by his family trust in 2016. + +&#x200B; + +Also dare I say the incantation and summon u/ammoprofit, who graced us with this chart some time back as well related to municipal bond buying during Covid. + +&#x200B; + +[Bottom row](https://preview.redd.it/ar5yzs2h85h81.png?width=733&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbb5cbbc1110c55d853e30a705149a4050c6a3dc) + +Around a year after things like the Muni liquidity facility kicked off in May 2021, the US gov dropped this paper about how **hedge funds (like Paulson & Company, Och-Ziff Capital, Fir Tree Partners, Perry Capital, and Brigade Capital) played a huge part in restructuring the island's debt (**[**https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R46788.pdf**](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R46788.pdf)**) and made 100s of millions in profits while potentially trading on nonpublic info during debt negotiations:** + +&#x200B; + +>.**As default risks on Puerto Rican public debt became evident, many mutual funds reduced their holdings, allowing some hedge funds to increase theirs. I**n spring 2020, some accused hedge funds of trading on private information obtained through confidential Title III negotiations. In June 2020, Judge Swain required parties to disclose more about their holdings. Once those disclosures were made, some called for investigations of alleged trading on nonpublic information obtained in debt negotiations. + +Also aww shit look at this list of some of the linked hedge funds in a group called COFINA tied into this: [https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2017/11/the-bondholders-who-bet-on-puerto-ricos-sales-and-use-tax-collection/](https://periodismoinvestigativo.com/2017/11/the-bondholders-who-bet-on-puerto-ricos-sales-and-use-tax-collection/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/awf42n2rk5h81.png?width=1397&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3d1e721e6719b8970bf28618b20b2edcf890804 + +Some callouts: + +* **Canyon Capital:** u/Ok-Ingenuity4838 **found they were a foreign fund alongside Citadel that raised money in China alongside Oaktree Capital (linked to Evergrande).** u/Jackbauer13579 **found they're a Milken offspring too,** and they also shorted malls in CMBX.6 that contained GME! (from my "big mall short" posts) +* **GoldenTree:** u/Badasstrader **found they have puts on sticky floor!** +* **Tilden Park Capital:** I recognize them! they were also part of shorting malls that contained GME! +* **Taconic Capital: had put options on GME!** (thanks to u/GMEisMyHomeboy) +* Cyrus Capital: fucked around with the Sears bankruptcy (u/funsnacks merci for this!) + +This also comes as more money has flooded the municipal bond market in the past few weeks: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-floods-municipal-bond-market-11640704797](https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-floods-municipal-bond-market-11640704797) + +&#x200B; + +>Investors poured more money into municipal bond funds through mid-December last year than they had in decades, providing the fuel for borrowing by states and cities to fund new bridges, sewers and other state and local projects to a second-straight 10-year high.  + +\---------------------------------------- + +EDIT 7(?): **Def read u/ ammoprofit 's comment below a lotta good shit he found like, how the MMLF fund that expanded money/credit to towns/cities started including commercial pape**r (seen in Evergrande/Tether theories, but not saying it's the same comm. paper used here) but also leveraged near the 15 to 1 ratio perhaps under the Net Capital Requirement limit: + +&#x200B; + +>**"$500B at 14:1 Leverage? If I'm making the right connection between the flavor of asset, that's just under the 15x Net Capital Requirement limit. Is this all the Fed had/could afford? Or is this all they needed at the time?** + +Also wondering whether this ties into the stories told about Detroit or Miami + +**FWIW also I found an interesting research paper talking about hedge funds buying up credit default swaps, and how they could potentially bankrupt towns/municipalities through some of these moves if they wanted**: [https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/8264/MingJieWangCreditDefaultS.pdf?sequence=2](https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/8264/MingJieWangCreditDefaultS.pdf?sequence=2) + +>**Another potential concern is that even in a market that is generally liquid, the market for individual single-name \[Credit default swap\]s may be quite small, which could allow a single bad actor (a hedge fund, for example) to force a municipality into default.** + +&#x200B; + +\-------- + +EDIT 8: + +Reminded then by a commenter (need to find name) to look into the statehood of Puerto Rico thing more and this stuck out! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/3t7472hvo8h81.png?width=1354&format=png&auto=webp&s=87ad93162bcd9dbee833e17437f7c6b3a0a7efe5 + +Seems that because PR is a territory and not a state, this fucks up how they can declare bankruptcy (in their $123 billion bankruptcy in 2017 compared to Detroit's $17 billion) + +&#x200B; + +>They are only considering statehood because it seems like the best option to get out of the more than $70 billion debt crisis they are in. S**ince Puerto Rico is not a U.S. state, and thus not entitled to the privilege of bankruptcy — which is a recourse for all U.S. state and local governments — it is entering a court-supervised bankruptcy-esque proceeding made possible by legislation enacted by Congress last year.** + +&#x200B; + +[America and hedge funds say too bad Puerto Rico, Guam and any other US territory you're turbofucked if you declare that shit](https://preview.redd.it/zaostqkdp8h81.png?width=1423&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d810a0b4bd429d31d809054e337e2403d3b47fb) + +And our very own options watchdog u/Dan_Bren commented this (hope it's ok to include!): + +>I was working in wealth management at the time of this crisis and one of my jobs to review all the clients portfolios and holdings to see if they were exposed to these Puerto Rican bonds through the many mutual funds they were invested in. **I can confirm that almost every single accounts had exposure to this in some way** + +**TL;DR:** + +* **Banana! Found a GME link! A couple of the hedge funds involved in increasing holdings in risky Puerto Rican debt as safer mutual funds decreased theirs (HFs sometimes through potentially nonpublic info), might include Taconic Capital (had puts on GME), GoldenTree (puts on sticky floor) and Canyon Capital (linked to Citadel to raise money in China alongside Oaktree Capital, who has Evergrande links).** +* **They can also buy credit default swaps on these bonds and sometimes single-handedly bankrupt a town/city.** +* **Tying into welp007's post, big banks piled on Puerto Rico with billions in debt in what was considered a Madoff-level Ponzi scheme between 2006 through 2014 at least, leaving the US territory turbo fucked before it got hit by a Cat 4 hurricane. The bonds sold were considered "less transparent" than what would happen on the mainland, so this is prob why the SEC is fucking ducking FOIA requests.** +* **Maybe UBS and all these fuckers loaded up Puerto Rico with debt because of a "Treasury Put" guarantee (that some government org would pay for it when it went tits up).** +* **The Puerto Rico fraud might be related to Detroit's bankruptcy, and maybe when Detroit went titties' up it had collateral damage and fucked the Puerto Rican municipal bonds and now SEC and everyone is trying to hide the shit under the rug.** +* **The Puerto Rico debt story might also relate into why they aren't being let to be a state, since US territories have different bankruptcy rules (!) Municipal bonds for PR also have heavy investment from colleges in their endowments (Harvard, Yale).** +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u) +Heyo, + +With my pending purchases of $ABBV and $PRU that will go through on Monday morning, my annual dividend income is sitting at $373.72. + +I started last September with the goal of investing at least $3,000 by September 2021. I've more than doubled that original goal and it's only February. I made it a goal to make my annual dividend income $365 by April, and I nailed it on the last day of Feb. I'm pumped. + +I'll sell some covered calls on Monday when the market opens and reinvest the profit into more dividend paying stocks, and I still have cash left over to buy more dips. I've poured money into the markets the last 2 days, but I'll continue to unload the clip this week. +New investor here. I have been following this sub for quite a while and have seen a lot of posts bullish on $SCHD. Currently it's near 52 week high (\~$76) and the last dividend was $0.7/share every quarter. The return from dividend alone is \~3.6% (0.7\*4 quarters/current stock price) annually. My question is how is it better than high yielding savings account (\~4% interest annually) assuming the growth is slow since it's already at $76? Let me know if I am missing anything here :) +I had a Stop loss set on GBPUSD Long and when it was supposed to hit the stop the stop automatically cancelled itself 10 milliseconds after the price went below my stop. + +&#x200B; + +The market wasn't making any big moves during that time at all. + +The following day I woke up to having around £200 in equity instead of having around £5000 + +&#x200B; + +[https://i.gyazo.com/f1f4794b0d37afbc98905dd034b9348b.png](https://i.gyazo.com/f1f4794b0d37afbc98905dd034b9348b.png) + +As highlighted in the screenshot above I was getting Smart-Stop outs which were modifying the Stop-Loss every time Smart-Stop out was triggered, It wasn't done by me or any bots, but rather that's what was being done automatically by their internal operations. + +But as soon as price fell below my stop it removed and ignored my Stop. (which shouldn't be possible as you can't cancel a stop loss once the price has went below it), to further prove my point I did not use any opposite side or double tick stop loss, but the default one. + +&#x200B; + +Also confirmed by my log that I have set my stop and never removed it: + +[https://i.gyazo.com/8cb3be0d1117f56696cd8b3b050de680.png](https://i.gyazo.com/8cb3be0d1117f56696cd8b3b050de680.png) + +&#x200B; + +I contacted them and explained the whole situation, and they had the nerve to link me to "what is a stop loss is" as if I have no clue what it is... yes I do and you cancelled it.: + +[https://i.gyazo.com/7b1971deb2e5b4f62a8b53f5c8422112.png](https://i.gyazo.com/7b1971deb2e5b4f62a8b53f5c8422112.png) + +&#x200B; + +Then I sent this reply, (showing key points I made): + +[https://i.gyazo.com/db1d8ea1f14dfe8382c1bf3760122430.png](https://i.gyazo.com/db1d8ea1f14dfe8382c1bf3760122430.png) + +[https://i.gyazo.com/39a41f00c44febf5c1805b58f0e425e5.png](https://i.gyazo.com/39a41f00c44febf5c1805b58f0e425e5.png) + +&#x200B; + +Their reply: + +[https://i.gyazo.com/eaa86c67501f7ad75ffe7c0fb0b8146a.png](https://i.gyazo.com/eaa86c67501f7ad75ffe7c0fb0b8146a.png) + +&#x200B; + +I think its a glitch on their end, but you never know if they remove stops on purpose, that's why this is totally unacceptable. + +I wrote this article to show some warning to others and also to document this case and perhaps gain some support against them. + +&#x200B; + +I will update as this case goes on. + +&#x200B; + +I Sent them this: + +[https://i.gyazo.com/18bb41936192309495626503d42d9e6d.png](https://i.gyazo.com/18bb41936192309495626503d42d9e6d.png) + +&#x200B; + +UPDATE: + +Their latest reply: + +[https://gyazo.com/0b084be08ec4e4f6fdb3b3c05c9ca60d](https://gyazo.com/0b084be08ec4e4f6fdb3b3c05c9ca60d) + +My replies: + +[https://gyazo.com/365d8268dd8dbe51a67084c9d92410d8](https://gyazo.com/365d8268dd8dbe51a67084c9d92410d8) + +[https://gyazo.com/a8b458c90de211ed2000f651662e26bd](https://gyazo.com/a8b458c90de211ed2000f651662e26bd) + +&#x200B; + +Thanks for reading! :) + +Posted on FPA!: + +[https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/icmarkets-removed-my-stop-loss-resulting-in-approximately-5000-of-extra-losses.59369/](https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/community/threads/icmarkets-removed-my-stop-loss-resulting-in-approximately-5000-of-extra-losses.59369/) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +"As much as 80 per cent stocks in the portfolio have slipped into the red, with only a handful of companies from sectors like shipbuilding, footwear, pharma, IT, cement and chemicals offering some cushion on the downside. " + +[https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/80-of-lics-equity-portfolio-deep-in-the-red-a-high-flying-psu-a-few-others-play-saviour/articleshow/70971324.cms](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/80-of-lics-equity-portfolio-deep-in-the-red-a-high-flying-psu-a-few-others-play-saviour/articleshow/70971324.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst) + +LIC the perennial saviour of all PSUs poorly managed and needs to be rescued. Is anyone surprised? +>**Net loss:** $1.01 billion, vs. $1.01 billion estimated, according to Refinitv + +>**Revenue:** $3.10 billion, vs. $3.04 billion estimated, according to Refinitiv + +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/uber-earnings-q1-2019.html +Edit: Everyone, I know PLTR isn’t renewable. Sorry for the poor phrasing. So I will ask here, in ADDITION to all of the companies I’m high on listed below, I would like your opinions on PLTR. If you don’t have one, that’s cool too. Not trying to mislead anyone like I was accused of. + +I like Lithium America (LAC), iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), and Novus (NOVS) which will soon become AppHarvest, possibly the future of North American agriculture. + +I’ve been doing my research lately and just bought 100 shares of each. Not the biggest investment in the world but not small by any means. I’m big on anything renewable and have no problem playing the long-term game. I actually prefer it. + +How do you all feel about these? + +Also, additional opinions I would love from any of you would be your thoughts on Sunrun (RUN), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN). I am very high on all of these over the next 5 years. + +Thanks in advance, and I’m still learning along with everyone else. Warren Buffett said, invest in what you know, and it’s better to get a good company at an okay price, than an okay company at a good price. I’m less concerned about the week to week or month to month, and more so confident in renewable energy taking over during the next decade. It’s not a matter of opinion, and it’s not if, but when! + +Thanks all and Happy Holidays and Happy New Year. +This is a lot of money to me. + +I was trying to put about 250 ETH into the recent TokenCard (TKN) ICO, and was getting anxious and frustrated because the site wasn't loading, or would only load partially so I couldn't get to the contract address. I looked in the TokenCard slack and saw that there was a pinned message with a supposed 'contract address' in it by someone who had the same name and picture as one of the mods. Operating on the assumption that only mods could pin messages and that that user was, in fact, a mod (really DUMB assumption on my part, and I paid for it, but I am also new to slack) I used the address that they provided to send my ether. + +It was 30 seconds later, when the tokencard website loaded and I saw a distinctly different address, that I started to get tunnel vision. In the next minute I was hit with a wave of extreme dread and anxiety, and I found myself covered in sweat, stumbling to the bathroom, unable to feel my arms or legs, vision fading, with an overwhelming sense of nausea. I made it to the bathroom, dry heaved into the toilet a couple of times, and then collapsed on the floor of the stall. After 15 or 20 minutes I settled down enough to physically function, but there was no way I was going to spend the rest of the day writing software. So now I'm at home sulking. No idea how I'm going to go to work tomorrow and act like everything is normal. + +Maybe if I had gotten more sleep this wouldn't have happened. To be honest, I'm going on about 3 hours sleep. I was up all night reading the TokenCard whitepaper and moving funds around so that they would be accessible for the ICO. But what's done is done. + +To the person who scammed me, if you're reading this: Good scam. What you did today wasn't some groundbreaking stroke of genius, but it was clever enough to net you 254 ETH. That's a lot of money to me- about half my annual salary- and I would really appreciate it if you were to give some or all of it back. But I understand that's probably not going to happen. + +Moral of the story is, I'm an idiot. Don't be like me. + +If ya'll have any ideas on how I can recover any of the 254 ETH I lost, I'm all ears. I also don't except to be able to do that. I know how the blockchain works. I know that all transactions are final and cryptographically secure. + +Transaction address: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x477cd3587d062e0ec123578d6518304a5fa3babdddc48dab8c6808d3a6a2518b + +EDIT: On the plus side I had to do some banking today after work so I stopped at my credit union on the way home. The guy behind me in line asked me how I was doing and I said "Not well, to be honest. I just lost $20,000". He was intrigued and we got to talking about cryptocurrency. He just happened to know all about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptoassets. Turns out he used to trade stocks for a living. He gave me his number and pointed me towards a local cryptocurrency meetup that I didn't even know existed. Always good to make a new friend, even if it costs $20,000! +I’ve been following the project and the team since 100 members in TG (this was 30 hrs back), now they have zoomed to 2500 people and adding. The most active community is what they have (30% people online at any given time). They have sure nailed marketing by not having influencers, but by the credibility of the project, a lot of contests running at the moment for Whitelist spots. I hope people don’t start selling their whitelist spots later. + +I think this sure has a potential to beat MemePad (the only competitor in their space) + +&#x200B; + +Some basic stuff about the project : + +&#x200B; + +🐶🐈 INUPAD | $INU 🐶🐈 (Competitor of Memepad, PS : Memepad did 1000X) + +&#x200B; + +🔥Launch pad for Meme & Dog Tokens🔥 + +Inupad is your go to launchpad for all memecoins & small cap coins. Projects that would launch on memepad would be 100% vetted and sure moonshots. + +Inupad is working to bring the best meme projects and develop the most mature eco-system for a community that loves backing meme & small cap projects. + +&#x200B; + +Why should we consider this project? + +&#x200B; + +✅ Super transparent team (read their pinned messages on TG) + +✅ Rewards from Token Redistribution on transactions + +🔐 Verified token launches on the platform + +🎁 Fixed Allocation & Airdrops + +🧑‍🤝‍🧑🐶 Be a part of the fastest growing eco-system of meme & smallcap projects + +✅Contract : [https://bscscan.com/token/0x607c0e60a4bb3e6e38882db7042d55ce2ceb52ea](https://bscscan.com/token/0x607c0e60a4bb3e6e38882db7042d55ce2ceb52ea) + +✅Liquidity Lock will be done 🔐 + +✅Prime company Audits in 📝 + +✅ COINGECKO Listing application will be done + +✅CMC Listing application will be done + +✅ Ownership renouncement will be done after launch 📜 + +✅ Bitcointalk Announcement Channel : [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340946.msg57122180#msg57122180](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340946.msg57122180#msg57122180) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Some things to participate in the project ASAP : + +🧾 Whitelist for pre-sale is going on here : [https://sweepwidget.com/view/24995-jvl8u0gw](https://sweepwidget.com/view/24995-jvl8u0gw) + +🐶 10 whitelist spots given in Meme Contest going on right now : [https://twitter.com/INUPADOFFICIAL/status/1399429306959368198](https://twitter.com/INUPADOFFICIAL/status/1399429306959368198) + +&#x200B; + +✅Some more contests are planned before launch today. + +✅ Big influencers have already started endorsing them. + +&#x200B; + +Coming Soon : + +Sale Details + +Tokenomics + +&#x200B; + +They’re selecting early backers, content creators & influencers of the project for assured rewards & benefits ahead of the sale. If you are doing the good deed of spreading the word about this eco-system, share proof or reach out to any of the admins, they might have something in store for you. + +&#x200B; + +MORE DETAILS DROPPING SOON, STAY TUNED + +&#x200B; + +🖥 Website: [https://www.inupad.com](https://www.inupad.com) + +🐦 Twitter: [https://twitter.com/inupadofficial](https://twitter.com/inupadofficial) + +📪 Telegram: [https://t.me/inupadofficial](https://t.me/inupadofficial) + +🔍 BSCSCAN: [https://bscscan.com/token/0x607c0e60a4bb3e6e38882db7042d55ce2ceb52ea](https://bscscan.com/token/0x607c0e60a4bb3e6e38882db7042d55ce2ceb52ea) + +Bitcointalk : [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340946.msg57122180#msg57122180](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340946.msg57122180#msg57122180) + 💙 What is BabyStellar? + +The BabyStellar is a community-driven and controlled token with a proven use case in the XLM rewards. + +Community benefits just by holding BabyStellar tokens. + +BSC Token + +🚀 Don't miss your chance to get in early! + +This is the start of something big. Zero tokens are kept by the development team & dev is going to dox himself + +🤔 How does it work? + +BabyStellar includes many established tokenomic mechanisms including: + +20% transaction fee, distributed as follows: + +10% distributed to all holders as XML rewards + +5% added to the locked liquidity pool + +5% added to the marketing wallet + +Phase 1 + +\- Stealth launch + +\- Developer Doxx + +\- 250 holders + +\- Social media campaign + +\- Listing's on Coinsniper, Coinhunt ect + +Phase 1 marketing started as the dev doxxed himself , social media campaign running and we are live on coinsniper. More to come + +Phase - 2 + +\- Poocoin add campaign + +\- 500 holders + +\- Dextools trending pending its in budget + +Phase - 3 + +\- 2000+ holders + +\- Coingecko and CMC listings + +Roadmap has complete & well laid out plans for upcoming 3 quarters. From whitepaper to dextools. From advert to listing. + +Contract address: 0x5243d3f19e079305b1792b83a030bc80be21b068 + +Telegram : [https://t.me/babyStellarOfficialENGLISH](https://t.me/babyStellarOfficialENGLISH) + +Website: [https://babystellarbsc.com/](https://babystellarbsc.com/) + +Twitter : [https://twitter.com/BabyStellar1](https://twitter.com/BabyStellar1) + +More information on website +Hello, + +For context - I'm mid 20s. Little over $1.5m NW. Will inherit quite a bit when my parents die. Unsure of my fatfire number as I want to live in NYC and summer elsewhere but the number is likely well over $30m. + +I own a rental in Ohio, I paid $120k for it in cash. It's now worth $170k-ish and makes $1500/mo net. Of course if I put that same money into VTSAX, it would appreciate to a much larger number but the ROI in cash flow when I'm older will be much greater in real estate. I.e; You pull out 3% - 5% from equities but get much greater % in cash flow from your real estate. + +I have $300k in cash right now - unsure if I should buy a duplex cash and rent it out or put it into VTSAX? + +A lot of you clearly prefer equities over real estate - why is that? Am I missing something? + +\*EDIT. I do still buy a lot of VTSAX and always will. Just seeing why I see more favoritism towards equities than real estate +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! +Hi all, + +Let me keep it simple. You place order on amazon and pay using UPI. Amazon issues CashBack. If don't like the item and decided to return back. Amazon accepts the return and issues refund = real amount - CB amount. Now you're holding the CB in form of quicksilver gift card...which has expiry tag of 1 year. In case of bigger cashbacks...this becomes serious matter. + +Here is detailed video/screencast I made on this. Also got reply from RBI on the matter. + +[https://youtu.be/z7OOkPe7y-g](https://youtu.be/z7OOkPe7y-g) +So my mother (47) only started working around 2015. She stayed at home years 2001-2015 and worked minimum wage or low income jobs for the years of her early twenties. She’s had no retirement savings until 2015 when she became a school teacher, so she now has a pension through the state. +I was organizing her finances because she was certain she’d be unable to retire. I was certain I’d have to open up an investment account or something for her, but her projected monthly income from pension would be nearly $3000 if she retired at 65. Additionally, I did a quick social security calculation which came out to around $1500 a month (same retirement age). I know that taxes come out of her pension which means it’ll be a bit less, but it’s totally livable if she moved to a cheaper area. +I may open up an account for her anyway, just to increase the padding a bit, but even if I didn’t, it looks like she’ll easily retire at 65. +Am I calculating something incorrectly or forgetting about some costs that go into retirement? +I see the line from the title repeated over and over in r/thetagang. Most readers here know that selling options is not quite as simple as the title, but a recent study published by the most excellent /u/spintwig really drives home why that is the case, and I wanted to highlight it. The study contains tests of four different expiration strategies, but this post will pick on the 45DTE (Days Till Expiration), as that interval is the most popular thanks to TastyTrade. + +A highly oversimplified explanation of Spintwig's test is that he backtested selling a put option against the SPX every day for two years. You should absolutely read the entire thing to get all the details (will link in comments as automod typically removes posts with links in them as spam), but here are the parts to this discussion: + +5D options are very far out of the money, so we'd expect small premiums, but a very high win rate. And sure enough, when selling 5D (5 delta) options with 45DTE, the win rate was a whopping 95%. Pretty good right?? I mean, with win rates like that, how can you lose?? + +Turns out you can lose pretty badly. The Covid dip caused losses that completely destroyed the profitability of the entire strategy, even after the market came back. **The 5% of the trades that were losers for the strategy not only wiped out every cent of gains from the 95% of the winners, but ended with the strategy down 12% overall, even after the market recovered.** + +I will quote another very well informed contributor to these subs, u/imnotarobotyouare: + +"This is a successful options seller:" ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 +-7 + +"This is a losing options seller:" ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 ++1 +-9 + +The moral of the story is: Do not conflate win rate with edge. As Spintwig demonstrates, you can play it safe by selling far Out-of-the-money options, win 95% of the time, and still lose a lot of money when the fat tail hits. + +Thanks to Spintwig again for his excellent work and generosity in making it available for free. +Honestly, this is probably the most insightful person I've talked to in my history of organising AMAs for this sub. Their knowledge when it comes to naked shorting, the system in general is amazing - because they’re on the ground floor detecting it. + +Let me start off with a quote from the interview regarding cash account lending: + +&#x200B; + +>**Wes:** As you know and I know, one of the main reasons reported short interest does not equal the real short interest is because the brokers in an attempt to circumvent Regulation SHO marked their trading tickets long. Trading tickets say short, long, exempt - so if you mark it long it does not go into your reported short interest right? + +&#x200B; + +>**David:** You have it. And if they’re borrowing shares from cash accounts, which is another trick, that you have uncovered (Wes). I’m not making accusations here, you uncovered this - we have together uncovered this. + +&#x200B; + +>**Wes:** No question. + +If you want anecdata evidence of cash account lending, there it is. DRS is the way. + +# The Interview + +I’m dropping an interview here between Wes Christian and someone you may or may not have heard of called David Wenger. They’ve worked together for a long time and I low-key view this as a “bromance” type scenario when it comes to the three musketeers, including Dave (among many others) who know each other and actively fight the ill-structured market. + +Note, this might come off as an “advert” in some *small* respect, but look past that as the utility value of the knowledge we can acquire is great. + +&#x200B; + +[Sharepoint link here for the interview](https://shareintel-my.sharepoint.com/personal/dwenger_shareintel_com/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=%2Fpersonal%2Fdwenger%5Fshareintel%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FVideo%2FWes%20Christian%20interviews%20David%20Wenger%2010%2E13%2E2021%2Emp4&parent=%2Fpersonal%2Fdwenger%5Fshareintel%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FVideo&originalPath=aHR0cHM6Ly9zaGFyZWludGVsLW15LnNoYXJlcG9pbnQuY29tLzp2Oi9wL2R3ZW5nZXIvRVR1ODlFa0xRUXhFaG92U0I5djZxSjhCaktJWTBCbnJ1VFl4NWUzSUk2RFdNdz9ydGltZT0tOUFKSEptUTJVZw) (I’ve got David’s permission to share this link on our sub - let's see if SharePoint can hold up against the volume 😅) + +# Alt Link removed for the Wes/David interview, there's a connection to a former scam with someone named Chad where apes lost money. + +I was previously talking to David to set up an AMA months ago, which fell off the books due to life. So it’s great we have access to this interview here as it does have some interesting tidbits in it. I’ll provide my anecdotal notes below from conversations I've had with him. + +# Intro to David and [Shareintel](https://shareintel.com/) + +This guy has been on the right side of the fence for 20 odd years. Spent years building software that’s patented, which can detect shady shit when it comes to share ownership (essentially detecting if naked shorting is occurring). + +Now, that catch to this is - it cannot be backdated. As David puts it in the interview, a company needs to turn the security camera on to capture this happening. Not a limitation of their software, rather a design of the system they’re working in (yes, your thoughts can lead to shady design). + +He has witnessed naked shorting in the order of double that of outstanding shares in the example he gave in the interview, or double/triple that of the reported short interest reported to FINRA. It just does not align with what’s in the DTC. + +David even reached out to the SEC and got put under an NDA. His solution at a macro level could basically help the SEC solve the problem of naked shorting. But guess what…. It appears to me (and David?) that they did not want it - which then translates into the regulatory capture debate. + +# Ending notes + +I’m catching up with David on CS/DRS topics, let me know if you have any questions specific for him - if there are a lot that are outside of the scope of the interview above, I’ll try and set up an AMA if there’s interest. + +Second, to that, we have an AMA coming up with a company that begins with C and ends with E - so stay tuned 🎉🎉🎉 + +Note: I've applied a moderator flair as it's associated with mod work - informative mod work 😉 + +Edit: I'm fairly sure I spelt Wes's name wrong in the title - sue me, I've been drinking +But it is not their responsibility to solve it. + +Writing this post because as someone who has studied economics formally for 5 years and has qualifications in the discipline from USYD, I want to address the slapfight in this sub whether or not to blame the RBA. Long story short, it's complicated and much out of scope for this sub. + +The RBA is concerned about the housing market because it is a major influence on ALL of their three mandates due to how our institutions, government and country has allowed it to become the behemoth it is now. + +**1. Inflation targeting:** The idea of cheap debt is to encourage people to borrow more, lower interest payments, allowing them to spend more and stimulate the economy to increase inflation. The reason why the RBA has failed to meet this mandate for a decade is because all this new debt has gone into the housing market, which largely does not show up in inflation measurements. + +Basically inflation targetting has effectively been hampered by housing sucking almost all this new money at the expense of everything else in the economy. + +**2. Full employment:** The idea of cheap debt is to encourage more business activity which increases demand for employees and once it hits full employment, wages will rise as workers become scarce. The reason why the country has never reached full employment over the last decade has something to do with housing, but not the entire reason. + +Because housing has become a behemoth in this country and there is strong interest in ensuring house prices are growing, immigration is a useful tool. Immigration increases demand for housing because obviously a large portion of these newly arrived people are not established in Australia yet and a house is how they get established. Simply, supply and demand dynamics explains why full employment has been such a struggle: more immigrants = more labour supply = persistent "un-full" employment = wages depressed for longer. GDP growth fuelled by immigration, as we all know from experience now, does not have much of, or even a depressive effect on wages. Major pain point for the RBA, but not so much very recently because of COVID. + +Another factor is diminishing returns. As explained earlier, new debt has largely been funnelled into the housing market. Naturally this would encourage more employment in that sector. Builders, tradies, real estate agents, developers have never had such a better time. Demand is skyrocketing for developing, refurbishing, selling houses etc. But there's only so much people who can become tradies or real estate agents. So while employment and/or wages are increasing in that sector as well other industries that feed into the housing market such as retail banking, its not enough to offset the stagnation of every other sector not seeing much of this monetary stimulus. + +**3. The economic welfare and prosperity:** Rising housing prices and depressed wages fuels inequality. There is already a divide between the haves and have nots for housing. The further this situation persists, the further it will worsen the economic prospects of this country. + +Simple reason that is familiar for us ETF lovers here is the lack of diversification. Over the decade housing is the investment a large number Australians have an outsized exposure to and are now dependant on it continuously growing at the expense of everything else. It is an exposure that is fundamentally unproductive, perhaps overvalued and is sucking the disposable income of many households. Yes the cash rate at 0.1% makes mortgages manageable for many. But it is money that will not be stimulating the economy in the way the RBA hope to in order to achieve its mandate. I could only imagine what happens when the cash rate begin to rise again. + +----- + +The economic welfare and prosperity of Australians depends on achieving the first two mandates which I have explained now has been hampered by the housing problem. + +This is why the RBA cares about housing. While it is not their intention, they are smart enough to know they are partly responsible to what happening now. The housing market has grown to the point it is the elephant in the room whenever the RBA looks at their scorecard and asks what went wrong. + +The government is obviously to blame as well, but they were elected by the people, so there's that. +I’ve heard many stories of investors loosing it all during the 2008 crash and wanted to see what people’s opinions are to prevent this in the future in case their is another major crash… not saying if it’s going to happen but not a bad idea to have a plan + +I’ve got a small portfolio of single family rentals all in B- C+ neighborhoods. They are all cash flowing, and have at least 25% equity in them. I also keep cash reserves for repairs, vacancy exc… + +What would cause me to loose my portfolio and what are some reasonable steps to put in place to protect these assets? +Friend tried it out with a little money and put it in the first thing that was suggested. + +It seems the investment (which was some CFD thing) was defaulted to 20x leverage?!? + +Luckily it went up. However I find it crazy a company would do leveraged investment for someone else before they even have any personal information. What are they're going to do if it drops and the person just deletes the app? + +It's possible I understood something wrong, but given how much money was made (20+%) within 2 days it seems it was leveraged, which I find crazy that they mislead new users into doing that. +The mission for the Pseudo Network is to develop an all-encompassing utility and resource platform for cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts. The developers are doxxed and passionate about developing a premium, long-term product that aims to support the future generations of crypto. + +To accomplish this, they are developing a network of programs that guides and assists users through their navigation of the cryptosphere and offers unique applications to make their tracking, data collection, and investing decisions come easier and more naturally. + +One of the ways they plan to do this is to take advantage of the massive influx of new investors looking to grow their wealth through cryptocurrency investments. A lot of these potential investors are unknowing or even misinformed about the nature of cryptocurrency and how they operate. There is still a staggering amount of people who are unfamiliar with Bitcoin, despite its exponential growth. There is a steep learning curve when trying to become comfortable with buying coins, handling transactions, staking, pooling, securing wallets and other functions often required to do. There’s always the lurking fear of forgetting a digit and watching as your transaction disappears forever into the blockchain. + +To combat this, PseudoCoin is creating and offering video and graphic tutorials to help bring in new investors and spread the reach of cryptocurrency. + +The PseudoCoin application is currently developing 6 key features: 🚀 + +🚀Video Tutorials: Expand your knowledge of what cryptocurrencies are and how to interact with them + +📈Wallet Tracker: Track and monitor your assets by connecting directly to your wallet + +📈Charting System: Modern and user-friendly chart that provides accurate information without constant bugs + +💵Market Trends: All-time highs and all-time lows of coins/tokens, biggest gainers and hardest losses of the day + +💵Excel Coin and Tax Tracker: A handy tool that can be used to estimate\* capital gains/losses and track value over time + +🚀Mobile Application: Crypto access in your pocket, for whenever and wherever you want to check on your assets. + +There is a detailed whitepaper breaking down each of these further, and a roadmap on when the in-development goals are planned to be released, and updates are always coming out on socials. New projects are being brainstormed regularly to enhance the network. After, the Binance Smart Chain, the developers mention expanding to Ethereum and the Cardano smart chain once it emerges. + +TOKENOMICS: + +Base slippage is 6% but may need to be increased to 7% or 8% with heavy traffic + +6% Tax on every transaction as follows: + +3% distribution to holders + +1.5% lock to liquidity every transaction + +1.5% burnt + +💵Contract Address: 💵 0x503b9bd8d0259e569e1ffdc7ced2e3a26198c0ff + +🔥 Liquidity Burnt 🔥 + +Maximum transaction at a time is set to 50,000 tokens to prevent whaling. + +Do your own research with the links below and see why Pseudocoin and The Pseudo Network is a long-term project that will continue to grow and expand! + +Website: https://app.pseudocoin.io + +Landing site: https://pseudocoin.io + +Telegram: https://t.me/Pseudo\_Coin + +Twitter: https://twitter.com/CoinPseudo + +Discord: https://discord.gg/uGs5rKz8 + +Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/PseudoCoin + +Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3wTWqqyc-OlDMyMajvjyHg + +Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/pseudocoin + +Gmail: PseudoCoin.help@gmail.com + +TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@pseudocoin?lang=en&is\_copy\_url=1&is\_from\_webapp=v1 + +Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/people/The-PseudoCoin-Network/100067700045346/ + +Medium: https://medium.com/@pseudocoin.network +Dear reddit, + +We beseech you. We come to you from that subreddit you’ve heard about, but don’t really understand it, so I’m going to try and break it down for you. We are the "apes" from r/Superstonk and we are battling the corruption of Wall Street with a very simple trick. I’m sure many have heard about GameStop’s stock soaring in January 2021, but did you know that the story isn’t over? I’m sure many of you are wondering what all the fuss has been about, so I’m going to lay it all out for you as concisely as possible. In this write up, I will cover who we are, what happened with GameStop in January 2021, what is still going on with GameStop, what is GameStop doing as a company, and how we are bringing down the corruption of Wall Street. So sit back, and get ready, because you are about to hear the truth of the matter (not the “story” from the media). + +First, who are we? We are a group of about 165,000 individuals who figured out the corruption on Wall Street, figured out how to beat them at their own game, and are on the verge of finally exposing the corruption and taking them down. We have all kinds of people; some crazy ones, some funny ones, and if you look at our sub now and then it all seems like a bunch of craziness. We are all quirky in a way to try and keep morale high while we continue on our endeavor to expose criminals and make them pay. The culture is about memes, laughs, and sometimes inside jokes, but I assure we all have the same goal. Our culture may seem odd, but our researchers and our partners (some who are experts in their field) have helped us understand the inter-workings of Wall Street, and now it’s time that their game stops (pun intended). + +So let’s get to the real reason we are here in r/superstonk. What happened to GameStop’s stock in January 2021? I’m going to use the best analogy I have heard thus far: do you know how airlines sometimes over sell tickets of a flight, and then they have to start offering a large dollar amount for someone’s ticket so the airline can buy it back and the person takes a later flight? That is what happened and is happening with GameStop in January 2021 and now. In January 2021, a report was released by FINRA that showed the amount of short interest in GameStop’s stock was 140%. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/z7nzux0iql891.png?width=945&format=png&auto=webp&s=b884ebf7ab31855b1ecc2e93b8548eb99bdf3cb0 + +Let’s pause here and learn a little. What is a short (or short interest)? A short is the term used when someone borrows a stock and sells it in the hope of its price decreasing. For instance, If I want to short the stock from company ABC, I will “borrow” the stock from someone who owns it and I will sell it to someone else. If I sell it for $10, and the price goes down and I buy it back later for $6, then I made $4. If I did this with a million shares, you can see how this can very profitable. Now, short interest is the number of shares of stock that are shorted at a given time. GameStop has a float (shares available to public) in the amount of about 63M shares. The short interest was 140%, meaning 88M shares were shorted, which is basically impossible without illegal activity. People found this out in December 2020 and January 2021 causing people to buy into the stock, creating a “short squeeze”, and causing the price to soar. Many brokers turned off the buy button when the price of the stock became “too volatile”. When they turned off the buy button, it killed demand causing the price to plummet back to $40. Later, it was revealed that the true short interest in GameStop was 226% (or about 142M shares). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fewq2nmjql891.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9241dfc967b0d1696d8f05e94e943feb8ca9561 + +That leads us to now, so next question… What is still going on with GameStop? Everything from last year became the impetus for the forming of r/superstonk. We are investors invested in GameStop, and we know that the shorts never closed their position and are still on the hook to buy back all those shares from us. We have discovered manipulation in all kinds of forms, and Wall Street is using every tactic that they have to keep the price from skyrocketing again. However, they are running out of time. Through our incredible research and crowd-sourced due diligence, we have concluded with all mathematical certainty, that we are still correct, and the shorts never covered their position. Again, they never “covered” their position. They “closed” their position, and they did so by buying a financial instrument known as a swap. The swap(s) is/are used to hide the short positions so the shorts don’t have to be reported. + +So what is GameStop doing as a company? GameStop was always the go-to place for midnight releases of video games. As time has gone on and technology improved, a lot of games are now fully digital, which has hurt GameStop’s growth and revenue stream. However, they are about to change that and the future as we know it. Ryan Cohen, the billionaire who created Chewy, made an investment into GameStop in mid 2020, revamped the board of directors at GameStop, and has been installing over 100 C-suite level employees from the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, Chewy, etc. (See DRSGME.org for more info). We know now what they have been building and how they are positioning themselves to be the front-running technology company of the future. They are building an NFT marketplace that is built on blockchain technology, which is revolutionary. What’s an NFT marketplace? An NFT is like a digital fingerprint. Let’s say you buy a movie on Hulu or Netflix or Amazon. You can watch that movie on those apps, but you don’t really own the rights to the movie so you can’t watch it anywhere. That’s what an NFT changes. It attaches a digital fingerprint to the movie showing true ownership, so you can watch the movie anywhere you go. Now imaging doing that in games. Have you ever purchased something in a video game? That purchase may help you go further in a game or have a fancy character, but that’s it. Well what if you got tired of the game in the future and you could sell that fancy character? What if you attached NFT to online card playing games like Pokemon, Magic the Gathering, Yu Gi Oh…. And each card with an NFT would show your ownership and you could have the ability to sell it online? See how revolutionary this can be. We’re talking music, movies, books, gaming, concert tickets… you name it. All of it will be yours and you will now truly own your digital items. That’s what is going on, and that is what is about to launch in July. + +So how are we bringing down the corruption of Wall Street? Wall Street is running out of time and I will do my best to explain how. We (apes) are all individual investors that discovered we can take shares away from Wall Street, so they can’t manipulate the stock’s price anymore or as much as they did in the past. Did you know that when you buy a share through a broker like Fidelity, E-Trade, Charles Schwab, etc. that you don’t actually own the share? You only are given an IOU from the broker and they will show they owe you a share of stock and that stock is now in your ledger and on your monthly statements, but the shares aren’t really owned by you. Did you know that? Neither did we 17 months ago. Now we know, and we are all on a long journey to truly own our own shares. We are doing that by Direct Registering Shares (or DRS) into our names, individually. We are using a company known as ComputerShare to do this, as they are the registered agent for GameStop. Every time we DRS a share, a share is taken out of the “free market” and put into our names, so it can’t be traded on the public exchange. Once we have DRSed all of the shares of GameStop, we will be able to prove without a shadow of a doubt that the stock market is rigged. + +Currently, we have registered approximately 15M of the available 63M shares. Every week that goes by, we try to buy a few more shares and DRS them, slowly taking away Wall Streets ability to continue their corruption. GameStop has even included the number of shares directly registered in their 10-Q (quarterly report), and you can go find it there (the number on the clip below is as of April 30th). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4r718sqkql891.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=853956ba7b35329472c429386cee4b4ee7973cc5 + +Anyways, if you have always been curious about the real story… now you know. If you would like to join the fight to bring down Wall Street, or if you would just like to invest in a revolutionary technology company that is about to truly revolutionize the digital world than please do so by buying shares of GameStop and DRSing them with ComputerShare. We are here to answer questions, we are here to be helpful… sure, we can be a little nutty sometimes, but our hearts are pure, and we want to bring down Wall Street and change the world for the better. + +Power to the People + +Power to the Players +AT&T is predictably taking a beating in their share price today. How long do you think that drop will continue for, and how long before it recovers? + + +I see lots of pros and cons to this whole merger, but I don't want to sell at a loss right now. I think I may sell out if it recovers back to the green, and then reallocate those funds into my other holdings. After the deal happens, I expect AT&T to fall significantly, and then I may buy back into it at that point (the yield will still be decent). +Nasdaq had its worst day in over two years, S&P was down over 3%. I've personally never lost so much net worth in a day as I did yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/us-markets-focus-on-wall-street-rout-as-it-batters-global-markets.html + +Futures point to another big loss today. This could all be a blip and we're back to a new record next month. Or it could be the start of a multi-year bear market. We might lose 20 or 50% over the next few years. I have no idea what will happen. + +If you were too heavily exposed to stocks yesterday morning before this happened, it's too late now. *Don't panic*. Hold on tight :) The people who made a killing over the last decade did not panic sell when the market started to self-destruct a decade back, and instead spent years buying up more equities. +I deposited a sum of money this past Wednesday. I asked the bank teller to write down the account balance on the deposit receipt. I don’t keep what I would consider to be an exorbitant amount of money in that account but it does have about 6 months worth of living expenses and all of my standard checking and savings accounts are with this institution. + +Later that evening, I received a message request on Facebook from the bank teller asking for money. It was a long story about how he was trying to marry his fiancé and a bunch of other nonsense. + +I didn’t respond and tried to forget about it, but It’s been bothering me for the past two days. I know it’s inappropriate, but if it were just that, I could get over it. + +Does this person have access to my accounts? Should I be moving my assets? This feels like a breach of trust between me and the financial institution. I’m a way, I feel like my privacy has been violated. +[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=stocks](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=stocks) +[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=best%20stocks%20to%20buy%20now&date=all&geo=US](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=best%20stocks%20to%20buy%20now&date=all&geo=US) +[https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=how%20to%20buy%20stocks](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=how%20to%20buy%20stocks) +I just wanted to point this out because we like to throw around the "shill" accusations a lot and I happened to notice that my title is a huge aspect playing into this. If you're browsing r/Superstonk by "hot" almost exclusively, you are having an incredibly different experience than browsing by New. + +Probably less than 10% of the posts made - I think I'm being generous by saying as high as 10% even - make it into hot. If there is a new DD that has dropped or some other exciting post the number of posts in New will greatly increase meaning likely only less than 5% of posts during those periods will make it into "hot". + +This is to say it can be quite exhausting to sort by New and to see the same comment screenshot posted over and over again, or the same tweet posted over and over again, or a possibly nefarious trend being posted en masse. + +I have made posts/comments in the past commenting on trends I see that overwhelm New and have seen others do the same who I suspect are browsing by New like I am. Sometimes these posts will make it to "hot" and people who browse only by "hot" will have next to no clue what we're talking about. + +Because they don't know what we're talking about the post then seems suspect to them and you get called a shill. Please understand how much it sucks to be putting a lot of time into trying to sort through New so that good content can be seen in "hot", only to be yelled at and called a shill at the end of the day because you didn't like what you saw happening in New. + +This subreddit has a digestive system and if you're not seeing half the crap people sorting by New are, that means it's working well. + +Tl;dr: BUY AND HOLD GME. Not financial advice. +Hello all. My GF and I want to start buying stock but not sure where to begin. So I guess the question it, what apps or website should we start an account with? Thanks for the help. +As the title says, the market is at all-time high. I am expecting the market will go down in the near future. Keeping this in mind what are you guys doing? Are you continuing your SIPs or paused them at the moment? +My parents will require me to leave home as soon as I graduate from high school. Included with this is the requirement for me to support myself entirely. However, I would like to go to the state university. +Some relevant details: + +1. The state school would cost me ~20k a year after the merit-based scholarship I will receive from the school itself and financial aid. This price includes housing, tuition, books, and food. I would need to find somewhere to live during summer, though. + +2. It will only take me 6 semesters to achieve my degree because I have taken prerequisite college courses online. + +3. As of right now, I am about to finish my Junior year and have a part-time job where I average about 20 hours a week, however, there are no extra hours available. + +4. Senior year I will be getting out of school early (about noon), so I could get a second job and work full time. + +5. The way my state/university is laid out I will more or less need to buy a car, so I intend to buy a used car at the end of summer (I have about 2,000 saved right now). + +6. My grades (top 5% of class) and test scores are good (99.5 percentile) however I am not eligible for need-based scholarships. + +Which leads to my questions: + +What actions should I be taking now in order to prepare for what's to come? + +Is it possible for a teenager to get a job paying more than minimum wage, if so how and where? + +What can I do to lessen the costs of college (I've taken all 100 & 200 level courses at community college already so it is not possible for me to go to community college first)? + +What are some costs I should be prepared for? + +And finally any other general advice? + + +Thank you in advance for any help you all provide. + +Edit: Major in Computer Science & I am definitely open to moving states + [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-says-berkshire-reversing-course-on-airlines-again?sref=DOTC0U32&utm\_source=facebook&utm\_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm\_medium=social&utm\_content=business&fbclid=IwAR12Q4v8a8hjDhdUDPtoMwel-G1\_hY9\_2ADtjeznVIqd4mdRAxjzAHWXqdQ&fbclid=IwAR3xV2P9ugfPZlA6Hm4wIaoQLAxmGA4cpFvypqSxQ\_o25EWyo0Iun-jXubA&fbclid=IwAR0JOrz6vlCcPtg4yTSh9A\_KmqFnj93HTBDrPeJYa4E-sk0\_uFc3hcFMWck](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-02/buffett-says-berkshire-reversing-course-on-airlines-again?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&fbclid=IwAR12Q4v8a8hjDhdUDPtoMwel-G1_hY9_2ADtjeznVIqd4mdRAxjzAHWXqdQ&fbclid=IwAR3xV2P9ugfPZlA6Hm4wIaoQLAxmGA4cpFvypqSxQ_o25EWyo0Iun-jXubA&fbclid=IwAR0JOrz6vlCcPtg4yTSh9A_KmqFnj93HTBDrPeJYa4E-sk0_uFc3hcFMWck) +**Before You Read:** This is part of an ongoing series on the basics of options trading and valuation, focusing on stock options. This is the second post in the series. You do not need to read the first part for this part to make sense, but if you are not familiar with the concept of equity, you may find it helpful. + +The first post, which goes over the concept of equity, can be found here: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/fdx8tw/options\_basics\_what\_is\_equity\_and\_why\_should\_i/](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/fdx8tw/options_basics_what_is_equity_and_why_should_i/) + +This post will explain what put and call options are. From there, it will delve into our first valuation and trading concept, which has to do with volatility as the title suggests. There is an opportunity to apply your knowledge at the end. + +This is a bit of a long post because it introduces a lot of new concepts. I will try to make subsequent posts shorter. I suggest taking a break and coming back to this post later if you start to get tired or confused. You can take this in bites, so no need to swallow it like a snake. + +**Puts and Calls** + +**A put is the right, but not the obligation, to sell an asset for a specific price.** The asset the put holder has a right to sell is called the **“underlying.”** The price at which the put option allows the option holder to sell is called the **“strike.”** Put options have an **expiration date**, after which they cannot be exercised, which is to say you owner of the put option can no longer invoke their right to sell after the option has expired. Now, let’s put it all together into once sentence: **When a person trades a put option, they are trading the right to sell the underlying at the strike price, subject to the eventual expiration.** + +That sounds great, but how could the right to sell something at a certain price be valuable? At this point, you need to have a notion of what “market price” means. Let’s review for a moment before we dive in, using stocks as an example. When you trade a stock, you buy or sell that stock based on an agreed upon price. Traders can bid (offer to purchase) or “ask” (offer to sell) a stock at any price, but only when one trader’s bid to buy is higher than another trader’s ask to sell does a trade actually occur. That point of overlap is called the “market price.” In reality, the bid involved will end up being slightly higher than the ask, and a series of financial institutions ultimately make their money by pocketing the difference, but for our purposes, we’ll say that the market price is just where bids and asks collide. For our purposes, we may also refer to the market price as the “spot price” for now. Either term is fine for the moment. + +**Puts have value because the strike price of a put may be different than the market price of the underlying.** For example, if you own a put with a strike of $5, and the underlying has a market price of $3, you have the right to buy the underlying for $3, and then turn around and exercise that put to sell the underlying to collect $5, ultimately making $2 of profit. That $2 is called the “intrinsic value” of the put option. **The intrinsic value of an option is how much you could theoretically profit at a given moment if you exercise it.** + +Here is another way to look at intrinsic value: at the very moment when the option is just about to expire, and there is not enough time for the underlying price to change before expiration, the option would be worth $2. In other words, the option holder could theoretically sell their option and collect $2 instead of exercising it. Why an option holder might choose to sell rather than exercise an option will become clear as you read this series. What it comes down to is that the amount you can sell an option for may be greater than the amount you could stand to profit by exercising it. In other words, **an option may be worth more than its intrinsic value except at the exact moment of expiration**; just how is discussed later in this post. + +For now though, it’s alright to be content with the notion that put options have value and that an option holder may choose to sell a put option rather than exercise it. Remember, the definition; a put is “the right, but *not* the obligation” to sell. + +Now, let’s define call options, using what we have learned about puts: **A call option is the right, but not the obligation to buy (not sell) an underlying asset at a strike price, subject to expiration.** It should come as little surprise that call options also have value for reasons similar to put options. See for yourself. **Question 1:** if you had a call option with a strike of $5, and the underlying had a market price of $10, how much could you profit by exercising your call option to buy the underlying and then turning around and selling the underlying on the market? I’ll put the answer at the end of this post. + +**Remember, calls let you buy at the strike. Puts let you sell at the strike.** + +Like put options, call options can be traded, their intrinsic value is based on the difference between the strike price and the market price of the underlying, and they may be worth more than their intrinsic value except at the moment they expire. + +Let’s recap: puts are a right to sell, and calls are a right to buy. One good way to remember it is to imagine the underlying were a dog; if you call the dog, it will come to you. Puts and calls can both be exercised or traded. The option holder gets to decide if they want to exercise or trade, but the option can’t be exercised after it expires. Depending on the price of the underlying, exercising can lead to profits, and that possibility is why options have value. + +We will now go over what can cause an option to trade for more than its intrinsic value. There are a few variables that can affect options valuation. We have mentioned two so far; 1) the strike price of the option and 2) the market price of the underlying. Volatility is the first one we will go over (later in this post) because it is the easiest to understand given only the strike and the spot. In future posts, we will go over the role of the time left until expiration and the role of prevailing interest rates; specifically something called the “riskless rate,” or “rf” for short. There are other variables that can be incorporated into options pricing models, but we will not address them until we have gone over at least two models that deal with these first five. + +To be clear, we are building up to being able to use 2 models that both incorporate five key variables, and you’ll be able to use 3 of the variables a simplified version of one of the two models by the end of this post. The key variables are, as previously stated: + +1. The strike of the option, which we will call “K” + +2. The market price of the underlying, which we will call “S.” S stands for “spot,” which for now we will just say is another name for the market price. + +3. The volatility of the spot price + +4. The time left until the option expires + +5. The “riskless rate” briefly mentioned above + +K and S determine intrinsic value. The other variables deal more with what we call “time value.” + +**Intrinsic Value versus Time Value** + +Let’s consider a call option with a strike of $8 (K=$8). Let’s say the market price or spot price is $9 (S = $9). If you were to exercise at that moment, you would make exactly $1 in profit (intrinsic value = $1 because $9 - $8 = $1). This uses the same logic we went over above. If you don’t get it, try doing Question 1, asking for help in the comments, or DMing me. + +But what if we knew that the price of the underlying (S) could change? For simplicity’s sake, we’ll assume for now that S can change exactly once before expiration. We’ll also assume that, when S does change, it will change to either $6 (go down by $3) or $12 (go up by $3), and there is a 50% chance of each of those possible changes happening. Finally, we’ll assume that the change is about to occur this instant, so no time will pass before the single change, and the change will happen instantly. This is a lot to assume, but the assumptions will become less ridiculous as we are variables to our model. + +If S goes to $12, intrinsic value would become $4 because $12 - $8 = $4. If S goes down to $6, the call is worth $0. Why is it not worth $-2? Remember, a call option is the right, but **not the obligation** to buy the underlying at the strike, so the option holder does not need to buy the underlying for $8 when the spot price is at $6; they can just decide not to exercise the option and let it expire worthless. + +Let’s recap: There is a 50% change the option will be worth $4 at expiration and a 50% chance it will be worth $0 at expiration. The option has $1 of intrinsic value right now. It also has what practitioners call “time value,” which is the value of the chance of the option having intrinsic value later. This time value is not to be confused with “the time value of money” which is a different concept. + +Let’s see how much time value this option has, starting with the single most important fact about option valuation: **The total value of an option is a function of its probability weighted future payoffs.** In this case, to find that total value, you multiply the value of each outcome by the likelihood it will happen. 50%\*$4 + 50%\*$0 = $2, so the total value of the option is $2. Subtract the intrinsic value of $1 from the total value, and you get $1 of time value. + +Before we do another example, this time with a put option, let’s quickly examine why it is worth breaking out the value of an option into intrinsic value versus time value. As I implied, **total option value = time value + intrinsic value**, and intrinsic value is S-K (spot – strike) for a call option and K-S (strike – spot) for a put option. You may recall I said that the one time an option’s total value is equal to its intrinsic value is at the moment of expiration because the underlying spot price has no time left to change. The implication here is that if total value approximates intrinsic value as the option nears expiration, then time value ultimately decreases to $0. Describing mathematically how the time value changes over time and eventually gets to $0 will require all five variables in either of our models – so that’s something to look forward to. For now, just be aware that this feature of options valuation exists. + +Let’s take the simplified model we have already used to value a call and apply it to value a put option. I’m going to start using the variables without restating what they mean at this point. You will want to be comfortable with them by the time we get to a full model. + +Consider this put: K=7. S=10. The spot can either become $3 or $17 using the same assumptions about changes in the spot that we made for the call option valuation above. Let’s check out the total valuation first. If the price goes down to $3, it will be $4 below K, so intrinsic value would be $4. If the price of the stock goes up to $17, the intrinsic value of the option would be $0 because $17>$7. Now, let’s add it up: 50%\*$4 + 50%\*$0 = $2, so the option is worth $2. How much of that is intrinsic value? Well, S>K to start with, so the option starts with no intrinsic value. Therefore, all $2 are from time value. + +A little more terminology before we continue. **The relationship between a strike price and a spot price is called “moneyness.”** Remember how intrinsic value was $0 when the strike was below the spot for a put or above the spot for a call? **Intrinsic value cannot be negative, but moneyness can**. So a call with S = $3 and K = $5 would have a moneyness of $-2. If moneyness is positive, an option is said to be “in the money” or “ITM.” If you’re familiar with the musical *42nd Street*, you can remember this because being in the money is a very good thing. If moneyness is negative, the option is “out of the money” + or “OTM.” If moneyness is exactly $0, the option is “at the money” or “ATM.” This terminology will come in handy later when we start talking about actual trades. Let’s test our knowledge so far: + +**Question 2:** An option has a moneyness of $-2 and S>K. Is it a call or a put? Answer shown at end of post. Can the option still be worth more than $0? How much of that value would be intrinsic value versus time value? + +The relationship between moneyness and intrinsic value results in a special relationship between total option value and the spot price of the underlying. + +Thank you for staying with me so far by the way. I know this is a lot. + +**Volatility and Option Value** + +You may have already noticed that an option’s intrinsic value can be expressed as a function of moneyness. Namely, if moneyness is at least 0, then intrinsic value = moneyness. This idea is powerful because it applies to both puts and calls. + +Now consider that if moneyness is not greater than 0, intrinsic value does not change as moneyness decreases further because it just stays at 0. In other words, whether moneyness is -3 or -10,000, intrinsic value is 0. However, if moneyness is at least 0, then as moneyness increases, intrinsic value increases as we stated before. If we put these two ideas together, we see that **the relationship between moneyness and intrinsic value is asymmetrical around 0. In other words, options have an asymmetric payoff function.** + +Now let’s think of this in terms of volatility: all else being equal, a more volatile underlying asset price has more potential to cause an option to expire further in the money or further out of the money. Another way of saying this is that greater volatility leads to a greater chance of a higher absolute value of moneyness at expiration. Since intrinsic value can’t get any lower once it hits 0, higher volatility can raise the maximum intrinsic value an option can have at expiration up to infinity, but cannot lower the minimum intrinsic value below 0. So, under the model we have been using, if an option can already end up with $0 of intrinsic value, volatility can only help option value, not hurt it, from there. Later, when we get to the Black Scholes model, we will see that volatility is virtually always is accretive to total option value, but for now we will stick to easy examples where options have a high potential to expire OTM. + +For the purposes of an example, we’ll introduce one new term; σ (pronounced “sigma”). σ a parameter used to express volatility. Some readers may notice that σ is used to denote standard deviation in statistics. The idea is similar here. For this model, σ will denote the amount by which S can move up or down during the single change that occurs before option expiration. So if S is 0 to start with and can move to 4 or -4, then σ = 4. **Later on, we will express σ as a %, indicating a rate of change, but we are keeping it simple for now.** + +Consider a call option with the following parameters using the model we have been using so far: K=25, S=20, σ=10. We know S can end up being either 30 (20+10) or 10 (20-10), which means the intrinsic value of the call will be either 5 (30-25) or 0 (because 10<25), which means that value of the option now is 2.5. + +Now let’s try decreasing sigma to 7. Now S can now be either 27 or 13 at expiration, which means intrinsic value is going to end up being either 2 or 0, which means the option’s value is 1. Notice how lowering σ decreased total option value. + +Now, let’s increase sigma dramatically to 15. S at expiration will either be 35 or 5, so intrinsic value at expiration with either be 10 or 0, which means the total value of the call option is 5. + +Feel free to try this with as many puts and calls as you want. You will observe that as long as the option isn’t so far in the money that S-σ>K for a call or S+ σ<K for a put, an increase in σ can never decrease option value, and as long as S has the potential to change such that the option may expire OTM or ATM, an increase in volatility will always increase total option value. + +**Congratulations: you now understand the basic idea of how options prices relate to the volatility of the underlying asset, and you can express it using a simple options pricing model. (It’s a simplified version of the “binomial model” for readers that want to put a name on it.)** + +You may be wondering how markets determine volatility in the first place. When options trade on the market, the value that the options trade for can be used to determine the σ implied by the trade. For example, if we are using the model we’ve used above, a call option worth $3 where S starts at $5 and K is $4, must have an implied σ of $5. No other σ would produce that total option value. + +In the real world, the implied level of volatility is typically expressed as a % and refers to the standard deviation of the change in S over the course of a year. The model used to calculate implied volatility is typically the Black Scholes model, which we can easily learn once we are able to use all 5 variables in the binomial model. The implied value of σ given an option’s price based on the Black Scholes model is called Implied Volatility or “IV”. We will deal with IV more later. For now, just think of it as the market’s best guess at σ. + +The idea of IV does, however, bring up something we can use now; the IV of an option trading on the market is an estimation collectively arrived at by traders. **IV does not necessarily represent how much S will actually change because the market cannot psychically tell the future.** In other words, the market tries to calculate an appropriate value for σ, but often comes up with something that isn’t subsequently reflected in the actual behavior of the underlying. They get it “wrong,” in a way, and if you watch an option for a while, you’ll observe IV constantly changing. + +There is a way to try to make money from this theory: **If you think σ based on the actual future behavior of the stock will be too high or too low to justify the value at which an option currently trades, you may have a trading opportunity.** + +In that light, let’s do our first imaginary trade. To up the ante, **I’ll give gold to the first person who gets this right and posts the answer in the comments:** Let’s say you think the σ of an asset is going to be $10 based on the model we have used in the previous examples. You look at the option chain (the list of options available on the asset), and you see the options below. You decide you are going to buy one option. Which do you buy, and why? + +S = $25 + +**Calls** + +K = $35 Price = $1.00 + +K = $30 Price = $2.50 + +K = $25 Price = $3.50 + +K = $20 Price = $5.00 + +**Puts** + +K = $30 Price = $3.50 + +K= $25 Price = $2.00 + +K = $20 Price = $1 + +K = $15 Price = $0.5 + +***Supplemental:*** + +***Bid Ask Spread:*** *The difference between the highest bid (offer to buy something) and the lowest ask (offer to sell something) is called the “bid ask spread.” The smaller the bid ask spread is, the more trades usually occur because small spreads imply there is less of a disagreement, measurable in price, between buyers and sellers. This small disagreement means only a small change in the bid or the ask is necessary to make a trade happen.* + +***To Whom Do You Buy or Sell When You Exercise an Option?*** *Ultimately, financial responsibility will fall on the person who wrote (originated or originally sold) the option, but your broker and a group called a “clearing house” are the ones who ensure that a transaction actually occurs when you exercise your option. The important thing to remember is that you do not take counter party risk from the person who wrote the option. That is to say, the person who wrote the option can’t simply refuse to honor their agreement and cheat you. If they try, you’ll still get to profit (to the extent appropriate) when you exercise your option because of the clearing house. The writer becomes their broker’s problem (and eventually law enforcement’s problem) – not yours. Keep an eye out for a post about “assignment” or look up “assignment and clearing houses,” for further reading.* + +***Answers to Practice Questions*** + +***Question 1: $5.You exercise to buy for $5, and then you sell in the market for $10.*** + +***Question 2: It’s a put, and it can be worth more than $0 if it has any time value. It has no intrinsic value.*** +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o80y41rd2k071.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bec8d80d9f731107b6249f0fed910c348d17e7 + +*This is one of a series of posts where I will apply my fast and dirty historical fundamental analysis to some of the biggest dogshit stocks of 2021. If you are interested in the process I use below to evaluate a stock, check out* [How Do I Buy A Stonk???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lzjpvf/how_do_i_buy_a_stock/) + +&#x200B; + +# The Business + +https://preview.redd.it/h62hmkvk3k071.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8393ac0eaa4ec60146a96761ce440889ecf71a1e + +Telstra was officially founded in 1975, though its origins go as far back as 1901 as part of Australia’s Postmaster-General Department. Originally run by the federal government, Telstra was eventually privatised over three public offerings, the first two of which occurred in the late 90s. + +Today Telstra runs the largest mobile phone network in Australia, offering coverage to over 99.4% of the population. It is also heavily intertwined with the National Broadband Network (NBN), through Telstra’s extensive wired infrastructure. Love or hate them, Telstra is the longest running telecommunications company in Australia, and I'm confident to say also the most well-known. Infamous some might say. 😺 + +# The Checklist + +* Net Profit: positive last 10 years. Good ✅ +* Outstanding Shares: stable L10Y, slight trend down. Good ✅ +* Revenue, Profit: overall stagnant L10Y, w/ equity increasing. Neutral ⚪ +* Insider Ownership: 0.75% w/ several on-market buys LY. Neutral ⚪ +* Debt / Equity: 132% w/ Current Ratio of 0.6x. Neutral ⚪ +* ROE: 29.3% Avg L10Y w/ 20.9% FY20. Good ✅ +* Dividend: 7.5% 10Y Avg Yield w/ 4.6% FY20. Good ✅ +* BPS $1.22 (2.8x P/B) w/ NTA 62cents (5.5x P/NTA). Neutral ⚪ +* 10Y Avg: SPS $2.13 (1.6x P/S), EPS 34cents (10.1x P/E). Good ✅ +* Growth: -1% Avg Revenue Growth L10Y w/ -9.9% FY20. Bad ❌ + +**Fair Value: $4.55** + +**Target Buy: $2.88** + +# The Knife + +https://preview.redd.it/hzbw37vm3k071.png?width=1522&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e113d567a20ae67ab4e7087b51f6c340e6431c6 + +Just have a look at that 23-year history on the ASX in all its glory. Boy oh boy, what a stock. I think I'd go as far to say that Telstra is *the* perennial dog stock. It has a storied history of declines lasting years, almost decades, followed by years of growth, only to decline yet again. Which decade long high should I pick? There are several. + +If you were old enough to buy in to one of the first two public offerings in 1997 and 1999, you may have had very different experiences with the stock. Those who participated in the first offering (T1) would have experienced a hypergrowth stock that more than doubled within the year. Those that bought into the second (T2), likely bought in at the stock’s all-time high and almost immediately would have regretted it. + +&#x200B; + +[Buying Telstra 1998 ATH vs The Market.](https://preview.redd.it/4vsqqghp3k071.png?width=1592&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfad236ecc7ce9f93c256ae7b6040f52cbbad9) + +For those unlucky souls that held all that time, with diamond hands that only the oldest of old man strength could muster, at the close of Friday at $3.43 (21st May 2021), they would still be down more than half of their investment. Had they decided to reinvest all their dividends over the years, they would have only made about +65% on their money over the course of 23 years. A sharp difference from the average expected return of the S&P/ASX 200 over the same time frame, returning just over 400%. + +You don’t have to be a pensioner to have experienced the ruthless pain of a multi-year long TLS drop though. Telstra has given opportunities to buy-in at the relative top several times. More recently in 2015, where TLS had climbed for 5 years from the depths of the abyss to reach a bit over $6.30 before abruptly changing course and deciding to drag would-be bag holders back to the depths. It is as though Telstra wanted to give a tiny bit of hope to those still clinging on since 1998 before breaking them yet again. + +Truly, Telstra is a dog among dogs. + +# The Diagnosis + +The Short Answer: It’s Telstra. + +I imagine the first crash went like this… + +[But Muh Telstra!](https://preview.redd.it/uag31g9u3k071.png?width=1240&format=png&auto=webp&s=3034e8f7a753c4b75884f6171f5054e32c0692e4) + +The Long Answer: Apart from a few divergences, for the most part Telstra's share price has followed its earnings. If anything, the share price truly reflects an old monopolistic public utility, with limited potential to grow. Though there is a bit more to it than that, since perhaps it was less a lack of opportunity and more a bureaucratic resistance to change. In so far, perhaps the share price in some ways reflected the changing perception of TLS's future. + +**Getting Hip to the Times** + +It’s safe to say that such a large, decades old, government run monopoly would take a while to get around to doing things innovative in the market. Huge lumbering old blue-chip type companies are generally pretty slow to respond to changes in the market. The life of a blue-chip is usually to linger around for a while, as it’s being cannibalized by newer more nimble companies. Indeed, a lot of the criticism of Telstra early on was that they would intentionally delay implementing new technologies so that they could extract the maximum profit from their older assets. Some Australians blame Telstra for being the reason in large part the country was so slow to adopt modern broadband internet. + +&#x200B; + +[Is it just me, or is that the ugliest mobile phone to ever exist?](https://preview.redd.it/6a0je3k14k071.png?width=1534&format=png&auto=webp&s=3541f1035c84a5dae41e2a267d6132975ac1e055) + +And looking back at the original annual reports, that message does come through a bit. I can remember PDAs in the 1990s and they were relatively good even back then. Flip phones like the Motorola Razr and the indestructible Nokia phones were around in the late 90s too, and were pretty advanced at the time. But in their 1998 annual report Telstra highlighted, not smart phones, but smart *pay*phones (some of you reading this probably don’t even know what a payphone is at this point, haha… wait, am I old?). + +&#x200B; + +[Steal Her Style, Telstra Edition](https://preview.redd.it/i2twxfs24k071.png?width=943&format=png&auto=webp&s=29a52d89195501ed0a2f10feb7a5142d7ba30790) + +Though maybe I am being a bit harsh. You cannot really blame Telstra for not being forward looking. Evidently, looking at the same 1998 annual report, Telstra's been working on video conferencing for the last 20 years. And finally, in 2020, an entirely different company made it work. 😺 + +**Back to the Future** + +&#x200B; + +[ Australia’s wholesale broadband access network ](https://preview.redd.it/nsb5m4n94k071.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=88a66cae555717101d3e6397f92ce0cb10a9d91e) + +Reading through the 2020 annual report, you see a lot of mentions of NBN. It’s mentioned no less than 245 times. It makes sense given the NBN has been literally intertwined with Telstra since its inception. Much of Telstra’s existing copper infrastructure has been slowly commandeered by the NBN during the fibre rollout across the country. + +Andy Penn, Telstra’s CEO, has not been remiss to constantly remind investors about the headwinds associated with NBN too. Though, I imagine making excuses for a company going not much of anywhere fast has been a common refrain from many of Telstra’s CEOs throughout the decades. + +To be fair, it’s a legitimate issue for Telstra. As customers shift over from Telstra’s older copper lines to the NBN, Telstra takes a hit to their EBITDA in the form of lower margins. Instead of providing broadband over Telstra’s owned copper network at a good margin, they must purchase the service from NBN. And Penn has flagged prices of that service as having gotten quite expensive in the past few years. NBN headwinds have contributed quite a bit to Telstra’s thinner net profit levels as a result. The effect of NBN conversions has been estimated to be costing Telstra nearly a billion dollars in earnings each year last couple of years. + +# The Outlook + +On a positive note, the NBN has finally announced at the end of 2020 that the decade long government rollout is now officially complete. The headwinds that Telstra has been experiencing should now start to taper. Furthermore, NBN finishing triggers the first of 4 conditions that might allow the government to privatize it (and we know how well that works!). + +&#x200B; + +[Pretty good deal if you ask me.](https://preview.redd.it/38o2ngai4k071.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b0244e40290971838f7f553f92b7d53e0dac5d7) + +But there are some restrictions regarding the vertically integrated Telco from buying it. So perhaps it should not be a surprise that Telstra announced they are restructuring themselves, with the intent that a demerger of their different business divisions could be on the cards. + +**T22 Restructure** + +Usually, I find such strategies as symptomatic of a company in decline, but in this instance it seems to make a lot of sense. Each individual business unit are more than viable on their own. And the key here is that the strategy opens up further tangible opportunities. + +The announced restructure would split Telstra’s business in the three main components. The first of which is the separation of the customer facing business which sells phone and internet plans. The other two parts would consist of Telstra’s infrastructure, split between fixed and mobile assets. Part of the restructure would also involve consolidating its assets, and streamlining the business with some fairly significant downsizing of the workforce (8000 jobs to be cut, which includes shedding about 25% of the executive & middle management roles). + +***1. ServCo*** + +[Telstra Shop in Craigieburn, VIC](https://preview.redd.it/06nnwnkk4k071.png?width=835&format=png&auto=webp&s=979efd3b445ac10d5f3e5f36e5f8ed7194c45d18) + +Following the T22 announcement and more recently this year, Telstra announced that it will bring the network of retail stores back under its full ownership. A significant number were previously run under license by Vita Group. I could see this as the first in the move in establishing the brand and ‘core’ business from infrastructure assets. I could see the ServCo side operating in a way that’s more similar to its competitors. + +There might be some further opportunity in being released from a vertical integrated telco too. The nature of Telstra's monopolistic infrastructure assets tends to attract many government restrictions about what they can and cannot do. A demerger of the consumer side of the business might allow Telstra to be more flexible in the market. + +***2. InfraCo Fixed & NBN*** + +Though a flexible and nimble core business is likely only a side effect of a more strategic play regarding the NBN. When the NBN was created by the Federal Government, intentions to eventually privatize it were written into the legislation. This involved triggering some key conditions, one of which was the completion of the rollout across the country. Another condition was finding a suitable buyer, but what is "suitable" had a few restrictions. Namely, Telstra as they are now are not in a position to be a buyer. However, a separate InfraCo business might well be. + +&#x200B; + +[NBN installation, photo from Courier Mail](https://preview.redd.it/pbq5e1sl4k071.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f15d5b93260f083752bc1dbafd2ab5ef2d6cd35) + +The InfraCo Fixed side of the business would still be owned by Telstra Group for the time being, but operate as a subsidiary with its own CEO. However, organized as a subsidiary, it makes a demerger easier, and gives Telstra what they are calling "optionality" with regards to NBN. Whether they would even want to own NBN is probably the real question though. Despite being an expensive service, NBN has managed to lose billions on a yearly basis with its nationwide one-of-a-kind fibre network. 🤷‍♀️ + +***3. InfraCo Towers & 5G*** + +[Telstra Tower in Canberra, ACT](https://preview.redd.it/ew5xbh3n4k071.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=118bc2653ca02f0eb0deed98675a94bbdaa19e4f) + +The hard assets not being rolled out into InfraCo Fixed are Telstra’s mobile towers. Those will be split off into their own business unit, InfraCo Towers. This is interesting given the developments around 5G going forward. How InfraCo Towers as a separate entity might change the playing field going forward could be interesting. + +# The Verdict + +I think the split between the businesses and the potential there for smaller leaner portions of Telstra to leverage their individual strengths could be a very positive thing. It is difficult for such a large and complicated business to effectively move in any direction at all. When one tries to do everything, one often gets nothing done. + +&#x200B; + +[So sad, they were only just about to get back together. 😿](https://preview.redd.it/8qa7n3mt4k071.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=d42e7ad88fc84ca39b5e8560c270e48d0d2bf625) + +And while the idea of Infraco Fixed purchasing NBN and bringing that business into profit through the ingeniuty of private enterprise (let’s be optimistic), what is likely actually an even larger opportunity is the expansion and widespread adoption of 5G. Telstra has already flagged that the core business will retain some of the key mobile assets like the 5G spectrum that Telstra secured at auction last month. + +&#x200B; + +[telstra.com.au\/coverage-networks\/our-coverage](https://preview.redd.it/673pr7lr4k071.png?width=1135&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ce457fe77c4ce4e3099acd36afa9a5c3fd4f098) + +Currently Telstra has the largest mobile coverage of any of the Australian telcos. Furthermore, they claim to have 50% of the population covered with 5G right now, with about 75% of the population to be covered by mid this year. So either way, Telstra is well positioned in the mobile phone market to capture a large share of the growing 5G business. + +&#x200B; + +[TLS annual report 2020](https://preview.redd.it/ku4h5b0w4k071.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a8658d6a9c9ac64354e4ec88e77db86c0f96b7f) + +What is interesting is that the speeds offered by 5G upgrade can compete with the kind of speeds NBN provides, at least on an individual consumer level. But further than that, 5G might very well be a game changer. It is touted as being crucial for technologies like self-driving cars, automated drones, and AI systems generally. + +&#x200B; + +[tesla.com\/autopilot](https://preview.redd.it/qwq7sw6x4k071.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ab7d97f6562cade9cb9db2047f6257c46b45cec) + +As such, there are some business ventures in development right now which are being held back due to limited bandwidth and speed capabilities of the existing mobile networks. Remove that limitation and the market can flourish. Some are seeing 5G as being essentially a disruptive technology, that transforms the nature of a lot of businesses entirely. Telstra is positioning themselves to be ready to facilitate and benefit from that transformation. + +# The Target + +So, if we are optimistic that Telstra has a future with T22 and we want to get on the train early before people truly can appreciate the implications, we need to make sure we don’t end up Buying like its 1999 and FOMO into a 20-year dud investment. + +**Digging into 20 Years of Fundamentals** + +[20 Year Fundamentals w\/ Relative Valuations \(End of FY SP\).](https://preview.redd.it/8zejm73d5k071.png?width=1599&format=png&auto=webp&s=11fcf1873e4e2187849a5c00497c83286b189b94) + +If we look at TLS in a holistic way, we find that their business is relatively reliable. It doesn’t have any huge swings one way or another. EPS varies from year to year, but not by much. Prices go up and down, but at the end of the day, Telstra is a mature business. I imagine it’s typical of what you’d expect to see in decades old public utility. + +What’s interesting is that on the surface there doesn’t appear to be anything that really sticks out in any particular year as the reasons for the share price to rise or fall. For all the issues over Telstra being good or bad at innovating, they lumbered on with similar revenue, similar earnings, and similar dividends every year. + +**P/E Level Target** + +[Strong Price Relationship with EPS](https://preview.redd.it/qetqsfz76k071.png?width=1550&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c98e92d940915cab0899efabfb21d6c9d995908) + +Digging a bit deeper though, one finds that Telstra's share price tends to very strongly follow it's earnings per share. In fact, if you delimit out some of the more drastic sentiment overshoots at the start and end (IPO spike namely), its nearly an 80% correlation coefficient between the share price and the EPS the next yea. In other words, the share price has been a fairly good leading indicator of the profitability of TLS. + +I suppose that’s sort of a “duh” moment, though the what I find interesting is that TLS’s share price is so well linked to the EPS, that you could say that there is a very stable price to earnings ratio that it has largely kept over the 20 years on the market. So much so that the standard deviations for the average EPS and the Share Price nearly the same %. + +As such, I think there is a case here to evaluate TLS purely on its P/E ratio (or perhaps better, on it’s forecasted P/E). Over the course of 20 years, it’s historical multiple has been 13.4x, so if you can catch it during a time in which it’s forecasted to be less than that, then you might have a good deal on your hands. + +**Buying Well** + +All that being said, I think Telstra offers investors a few fundamental lessons about the stock market. Telstra serves as a fairly great example of how buying *well* is crucial for for long term success in investing. + +&#x200B; + +[Buying Telstra at $3.00 in 1997 vs the Market](https://preview.redd.it/q52bc1xe6k071.png?width=1659&format=png&auto=webp&s=26ecf4f72b962400e8f7758327927174872ac259) + +“Investment success doesn’t come from ‘buying good things,’ but rather from ‘buying things well.’” – Howard Marks + +What if our instead of buying the all time high T2 offering, our would-be investor bought the T1 offering at $3.00 and held. All things otherwise the same, 20 years later, the investment doesn't look half bad (dividends reinvested). Still lagging a bit behind, but that is in part because this year we’re experiencing one of the multi-year lows in the SP/EPS cycle. If they had sold at one of the various high points along the way, say in 2016, the performance relative to the ASX200 is quite a bit more exemplary. + +As such, I think that carefully waiting for a good entry point into TLS is the entire game (or really any cyclical stock for that matter). Certainly, the the assumption is that Telstra will bounce back. The last couple of years’ worth of EPS were not flash. But with NBN tapering, restructures commencing, cost cutting underway, and opportunities in 5G before us, I think there are many reasons to be optimistic + +**Fundamentals Target** + +Though, if we want to back up our technical with a fundamental analysis, then I think if there is any stock we’d use long term averages to evaluated, it’s this one. To be a bit more conservative, we can opt to use statutory profits for our EPS which were lower than underlying profits for the last couple years. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/g02gaaik6k071.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5d1f91d5ac2974e6c79f692e72d79c85edf469c + +Using these figures, we’d get the following stats: + +* EPS 29.8cents +* SPS $2.18 +* DPS 26.6cents +* BPS $1.27 + +With that we can derive the following prices: + +**Fair Price (S.Avg): $4.37** + +**Target Price (S.Avg): $2.75** + +Looking at the recent price action, we’ve seen that target price level reached near end of last year. Since then TLS has bounced back to around $3.30-$3.50. Perhaps the window is closing on a new multi-year uptrend? It will be interesting to watch. + +# The TL;DR + +Telstra has a long and storied history of being an absolute piece of dogshit. Multiple times during its two decades on the exchange it has experienced huge share price drops. Digging into the long term history, the stonk seems to trade like you would expect a huge monopolistic public utility, and that is on a strong price to earnings relationship. + +More recently, there are some promising developments. Telstra has announced a T22 restructure to their business, which will involve a potential demerger of its infrastructure assets, allowing “optionality” in acquiring the NBN. And otherwise streamlining the core business and positioning it to benefit from growing 5G opportunities. + +Personally, I think the history of the stonk's long term price trends demonstrate that if one can catch Telstra at one of it’s share price lows, it might be worthwhile to try to ride the wave back up. Costs of NBN are tapering, so there's reasons to think they can improve again. This blue-chip dividend stock also comes with a bit of surprise upside too, should T22 or 5G really take off. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on TLS and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (rough order): AMP, IFL, TGR, RFG, TPG, RBL, CGF, NXL, URW, IPL, WHC, SXL, ASB* + +*Previous Editions of Catching the Knife:* + +1. [The Second Australian Company (AGL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ms53c0/catching_the_knife_the_second_australian_company/) +2. [The Daigou Milk Company (A2M)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mxf4xu/catching_the_knife_the_daigou_milk_company_a2m/) +3. [The Largest Australian Energy Company (ORG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n1va2b/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_energy/) +4. [Amazon’s Bogan Australian Cousin (KGN)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n7cpxk/catching_the_knife_amazons_bogan_australian/) +5. [Putting the Autistic Individual in AI (APX)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ncm2on/catching_the_knife_putting_the_autistic/) +Hi all, + +My boyfriend and I recently saw a townhouse in Irvine, California that we thought may be a good investment property. The listing price is $760,000 with $299/month HOA fees and has 2 bedrooms / 2.5 bathrooms. We'd occupy one of the bedrooms (for approximately 3 years), and ideally rent out the other room for a minimum of $1,500/month. After both of us move out, we'd (again, ideally) rent out the full townhouse for a minimum of $4,000/month. After doing calculations, it doesn't appear that we'd breakeven on monthly rental cash flow (note this is from estimating $5,175 monthly payments including mortgage principal + interest for 30-year fixed rate loan at 6%, HOA fees, homeowner insurance, property taxes, utilities) and we'd likely still have to cover a portion of monthly costs, but we believe the property will appreciate due to the coveted neighborhood (abundant amenities, close to airport and SoCal beaches, safe neighborhood, some of the best public schools in the country). Our plan would be to eventually cash-out refinance to purchase another property (and lower that interest rate..). Is this the right move for us, and does it make sense to purchase an investment property that doesn't cash flow but may appreciate quickly? + +Here are a few things to note: + +* We're both first-time home buyers so we'll take any advice we can get! +* My boyfriend's yearly salary is $130,000 and mines is $85,000 - we don't have any debt, have enough money for a minimum 20% down payment, have an emergency savings fund, and regularly contribute to 401Ks as well as max out both of our Roth IRAs. +* We can see this townhouse potentially being our "starter home" for a few years down the line before having kids +Citadel AKA Shitadel, etc. + +Ken Griffin AKA Kenny, KG, Mayo Boy, etc. + +Fidelity AKA FUDelity, etc. + + +If apes do not use the correct spelling this will only muddy the water or diminish the spotlight on these people of groups. This is due to SEO(search engine optimization). + + +You better believe Ken Griffin the illegal short seller of Citadel Securities doesn’t want the spotlight on him or his organization. When apes post, they must remain focused on utilizing correct spelling in order to keep the spotlight and search trends full throttle on Ken Griffin the illegal short seller of Citadel and his illegal trading practices on GameStop and GME. + + +Not naming them only helps shills hide what apes have discovered in their DD. Let’s help r/superstonk get the attention it deserves by being clear and concise in naming market makers and their illegal practices. +I am a lot in oil so i would like to add some stable stocks to hold long term. I like Unilver, Sketchers, Restaurant Brands International and Intel. I look for dividends and also for long term growth. + +Other stocks i like is Brk B and PVH, and mining stocks - Rio, bhp and vale. + +P.s Started position in O last month. +First of all, I gotta say Aswath is incredibly talented teacher. Watching some of his videos seem like he’s the modern Benjamin Graham. + +Thing is he is not exactly like that. + +I’m not going against his methods or something, but tell me if I’m wrong, the amount of metrics, calculations, “side effects”, variables and formulas he takes into consideration while calculating intrinsic value is INSANE. I mean, contrary to warren buffett, which always repeatedly stated one should keep investing and valuations simple, Aswath looks like he takes valuations to some physic levels. + +Friend of mine who reads Aswath’s books and watch his youtube classes kind of questions my reasons for reading “Security Analysis”, “intelligent investor” and so on. I was wondering what you guys think. +[https://rationalreflections.substack.com/p/enduring-inflation?utm\_source=%2Fprofile%2F17545801-the-rational-walk&utm\_medium=reader2](https://rationalreflections.substack.com/p/enduring-inflation?utm_source=%2Fprofile%2F17545801-the-rational-walk&utm_medium=reader2) + +David Einhorn talked about how the Fed changed how housing inflation was calculated in the early 1980s, if that change hadn't been made our current rate would be much higher than 8.6%. The implication is that inflation is going to be a much more persistent problem that we think. +Out of curiosity I searched through the highest r/Valueinvesting posts of all time and picked out 20 individual stock picks. I left out the mega corps like Apple, Amazon, Baba etc. since that's not the type of investing ideas I personally come to this subreddit for. I've then compared them to the S&P over the same time period. + +For the curious: [https://imgur.com/a/b04KwDo](https://imgur.com/a/b04KwDo) + +Since this sub has grown most of these are recent. I'll come back to this basket of 20 stocks down the line to see how we fare vs. the market. Currently the S&P leads r/ValueInvesting 7.2% vs. 5.1%. I didn't bother with including dividends but will in future. + +Reviewing the associated DD and then how it went, the general insight I take away is quantitative analysis (free cash flow, PE, PS, trading below intrinsic value, dividend yield etc.) is not enough. People mostly relying on those didn't do great. Every investment bank and hedge funds have thousands of genius data guys who can run these numbers in their sleep and arbitrage away the opportunity. + +My takeaway is to have a chance at beating the market you need to include significant qualitative elements: macro situation, moats, segment rotations, management quality etc. This should be a major factor in your investing decision. Wisdom vs. data crunching is where the alpha is. There must be a reason why the stock is incorrectly priced and why that one day will change. There's a lot of cheap small companies that stay cheap and small forever. + + +Last October I bought my first rental property in Windsor (Canada) + +Here are the details + +**Purchase Details** + +* Buying Price: 160K +* Reno: \~4K +* Down Payment : 32K +* Closing Costs: \~4K +* **Total Cost of my project: 40K** + +**Monthly Numbers** + +* **Rent: 1,400\*** + + **Costs (monthly)** + +* Mortgage: 600 (300 goes towards my principal) +* Insurance: 100 +* Taxes: 100 +* Mis (repairs): 100\~200 + + **Cash Flow Monthly** + +* 400\~500 + +**Cash Flow + Equity Build Up (Monthly)** + +* 700\~800 + +**Annual Returns** + +* · CASH ON CASH ROI : 12% +* · Cash: 21% + +The Windsor in canada has appreciated like crazy. My SFH is roughly valued at 210\~215K + +Lessons Learnt + +* · Be Super conservative about the numbers. I used this calculator. It is free [https://www.calculator.net/rental-property-calculator.html](https://www.calculator.net/rental-property-calculator.html) +* · To determine the rent ask the property managers in the area. I also used kijji, face book groups etc +* · Don’t listen to most people. Most people are not real estate investor. They don’t have an idea of what real estate investing is. Be careful whom you listen to. +* · Don’t be too focused on the small things. When buying your first property you are bound to make mistakes. It’s okay. Just make sure you don’t make any big mistakes. Make sure you are getting a good deal and not over paying. Make sure your property can be rented. Don’t be too focused on lawyers fees, or inspection fees for the first property. + +I hope this help you! Anyone else in the game. Can y’all share your journey as well +I bought a property and the person in the basement is leaving so I thought I would go live there (currently living with parents) and so I can fix anything that goes wrong in the building. I'm just concerned about maybe a lack of light during the day and maybe noise? I'm doing this mostly because the basement is quite spatious and don't need anything bigger. Would also save money instead of buying a condo. +Long story short, I have terrible credit (it was once so good!). + +My TransUnion score is 585 and my Equifax is 582. + +I actually ended up going prison for a while and defaulted on everything. Literally every account I had. BUT, all of them are past 7 years now. They all say "closed", but they are still on my report. Is there a way to remove them? I assume they are doing a lot of damage. + +I am in Florida and the accounts would all be from NJ, NC, GA or FL. + +Thanks. + +**EDIT: Holy crap. Thanks for all this advice and the kind words. You can start to feel like a weirdo being a felon so it feels good to get legit advice and supportive comments even from Internet strangers. I did just notice something: I got my hard copy credit reports about 10 months before I got out (they sent them to the prison). All of the dates on those say "Removed by...." with the LATEST date being February of 2017. But now when I look at Credit Karma, some of the dates say 2019 or 2020?!?** +Honestly, this has to be one of the most (if not the most) infuriating things when trying to get a mortgage. Most first time buyers have no way of proving they’re financially reliable other than this and other bills and yet they aren’t factored in. However, if you missed a few months over a period of a couple of years, you just know they would get raised as a red flag. + +So yeah, how come it doesn’t contribute to showing you’re a reliable individual who can be trusted with a mortgage? +You wanted it, you got it. Back by popular demand is 5 more tips for you trading noobs. Because of the generosity you’ve shown, I’ll likely be a regular contributor to this sub and this sub only when it comes to trading. + +&#x200B; + +As a warning, these tips are mainly directed toward those that are looking to become serious-casual to serious part and full time traders for the long term >1 year. + +&#x200B; + +* 6. Learn the history of this business – You don’t have to decipher this like you’re reading James Joyce, but do brush up on the history of trading. I recommend reading/watching up on modern trading because frankly it’s fresher and more compelling. FFS, this subreddit did an AMA with Nick Leeson. Do you know who he is? If not, go and learn. And about Jerome Kerviel, Jordan Belfort, Janet Yellen (and the Fed in general), Bethany McLean. Knight Capital or Long Term Capital Management ring a bell? Didn’t think so, go look it up. These stories pump some life and provide context in terms of what you’re doing and how you fit in in the grand scheme of things. Before Beyonce it was Janet Jackson, Madonna and Aretha. Before Magnus Carlson it was Anand, Kasparov, Fischer, and Paul Morphy. Before Daniel Craig it was Brosnan, and Roger Moore, and Connery. You get the point. Learn about the modern history of trading and you fill find a greater respect for this trade (no pun intended). + +&#x200B; + +* 7. Get excited – This is a time period in history where you have mostly unfettered access to several markets, be it stocks, options, forex, futures, crypto, and CDS (one can dream). No barriers to entry. You’re fucking lucky as shit to lose all your money to the market machine. Back in the day, you needed to either A. know someone at a brokerage, prop shot, bank, etc. or B. have a pristine ivy league-level-esque degree. Not to mention you had to actually live in one of the major markets (Chicago, NYC, London, Singapore, Tokyo etc.) to be a player because there was no such thing as online trading. In the and 80-90s the “pits” on the floors of the exchange is where all the action was. Then slowly it moved electronic, but the barriers to entry were still high. Even after online brokerages started up for the layperson in the 00’s, you still had to deal with trade commissions, slow internet and execution, limited real time market data and news, etc. Today, all that shit is at the tips of your fingers. You don’t need a Bloomberg terminal anymore to get breaking news. You don’t even need to work a prop shop (or worse bucket shop buying that MedPatent or FarrowTech). Trading in today’s market is about as pure to capitalism as one can get. Whether you’re Ken Griffin or Ken Nobody flipping burgers on the overnnight shift at McDonalds, you have access to the markets. That said, there is a shit ton more competition, hello HFT and AI. And so cupcake trades are fewer and far between, trading strategies have a shorter time window of profit, etc. So there’s the good and the bad but for the noobs here, the good far outweighs the bad. Hold on to your nuts or tits (for all the women traders out there, I’m writing to you too, get that money girl) though because if you’re not disciplined you will lose your stack regardless. + +&#x200B; + +* 8. Scared money don’t make none – You need to be honest with your own risk tolerance otherwise you will fail as a trader. On a scale of masturbating at home in your room with the door locked and the lights off to raw dogging randoms without protection you need to figure out, in general, how risk averse, risk neutral, or risk loving you are and be mindful of this when developing your trading strategy. Maybe you play it safe with 90% of your stack and YOLO the other 10%. Maybe vice versa. Doesn’t matter, all three levels of risk can be profitable, but you will likely be ineffective if you don’t understand your risk tolerance. Why? Because you will either play with scared money (naturally risk averse but make risky plays) or you will be dogged by too much FOMO (risk loving but you covered for meager profits too early and then go on tilt on your next trade only to lose money). It’s one thing to risk only enough money you are comfortable losing (we’ll discuss this more in another post) but it’s another thing to mismanage the money you *are* willing to comfortably risk. Just because you’re comfortable losing it doesn’t mean you *want* to lose it. Learn about your risk. Again, if you want to YOLO your $5k or whatever on a few trades, go do it, but if you want to be consistently profitable in the long-term, you must have capital to do so. + +&#x200B; + +* 9A. Execution – Something that is easily overlooked when starting out is your physical trading setup. What platform are you using? Are you aware of all of the trading features (charts, news tickers, time and sales, customization options, etc.)? Is it the right platform for you? How reliable is your Internet connection at home, the office, on the road, wherever you trade? Do you have a backup option in case your phone or computer craps out? How much are you actually investing in the proper tools to be successful? The last thing you want is to have a big position on and be stuck out in the middle of nowhere without the ability to adjust your position should market shifting news hit. Two words, Murphy’s Law. + +&#x200B; + +* 9B. Order execution – Get familiar with limit orders. Get familiar with stop losses. Get familiar with being able to quickly and seamlessly enter and exit positions using the various entry/exit options that your trading platforms allows. Seems simple enough? I have and will always see noobs fat finger right into their own butthole because they weren’t paying attention to a quick change in market price, or some other “delay of game” bullshit. + +&#x200B; + +* 10. You shall compare your P/L today only to your P/L from yesterday, last month, last year. That’s it. Do not, I repeat, do not get mixed up in a game where you are comparing yourself to the “winners” and “losers” in these subs or friends and colleagues. You don’t know their whole financial picture and likely never will. Young traders are so insecure (naturally) that they let this noise get inside their heads. I don’t give a fuck if you killed it or got killed in the markets because unless you’re throwing some of that money at me, IDGAF. I’m worried about me and my gains and my losses and my strategy. That’s it. Stay focused on the task at hand, which is to improve every day (Youtube 1% rule). If you want to discuss your P/L in a meaningful manner, that’s one thing and acceptable to do, otherwise pay no mind to that fuss. +My CPA who will be preparing and filing my tax returns asked me to sign a waiver that has language such as: + +* "We will use professional judgment in resolving issues when the tax law is unclear or when there is conflict among the authorities. You agree to indemnify and hold us harmless with respect to any and all claims arising from the use of the tax returns for any purpose other than filing with the Internal Revenue Service and state/ local tax authorities regardless of the nature of the claim." +* "Any dispute will be submitted for resolution by arbitration..." +* "You have the final responsibility for the income tax returns and, therefore, you should carefully review them before you sign and file them" + +Is this normal? I am hiring them because I don't have expertise in this area(taxes), how can I take responsibility for something that I don't understand much? Please advice. +Credit to u/globalrebel and u/jsmar18 + +I am just reposting something I saw posted on the GME sub by u/globalrebel, none of this is my original content I just haven’t seen us talking enough about it. Give credit where it is due, not me. + +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo427AW0anw + +Go to the ~9:30 mark in the most recent AMA with computershare. They are asked whether they are allowed to release information about DRSed share numbers and their reply is incredibly bullish!! + +They reply that releasing this information is decided by their corporate clients, not by them. They go on to say that they are in talks with one or two clients about releasing number of DRSed shares periodically, and this is something that could happen very soon! It is possible, and if GameStop wants to allow these numbers released they will be released!!! + +Again, rather than the usual weekend sub drama and FUD, this is something we should all be discussing, this content is not my own. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit 1: Link to original post from another Ape sub:: + +https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/r83kvk/holy_sht_computershare_just_said_that_they_are_in/hn3fwps/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 + +Edit2: feast your tits on this: + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r8qvo4/drsbot_daily_stats_1232021_day_53feedthebot_3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +Post it if you have it, because all I have seen are the clarification from GameStop and the clarification from one of the EU regulators. What I have not seen, despite the constant bombardment of memes and citations of “DTCC committed international securities fraud”, is evidence from a broker that they were instructed by the DTCC to break the law. You know, something that would stand up in court? + +So where the fuck is it? I’m asking over a month later, because despite my being on here hours at a time each day, and politely asking the mods for clarification on the “evidence”, it seems there is none. So post some and help a brother out. + +Otherwise we should stop accusing them of fraud (as much as I want to fuck them over like they have me). Let’s be fair, rational, and always ask questions. Especially if accusations require evidence. + +Thank you and have a great weekend 💜 + +Edit 1: great conversation. Still lots of misdirection, FUD, gaslighting and ad hominem bullshit to sift through. There is one gem below, which looks promising. I’m currently trying to research FC02 v FC06, ~~and if it should be FC06 and this screenshot on Twitter can be validated and verified somehow, it does look like legal evidence~~. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/x4uv9m/proof\_the\_dtcc\_committed\_international\_securities/imy68td/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/x4uv9m/proof_the_dtcc_committed_international_securities/imy68td/) + +Edit 3: [This thread marked as possible DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/whup7y/clearing_up_the_recent_misinformation_about_the/) and not debunked by mods, states that FC-02 is correct. If that is the case, the link above is incorrect on the FC-02 bit, but does show the "Stock split" portion. ~~So I'm still looking for~~ Would this evidence ~~that would~~ stand up in court? Something that shows the DTCC fraudulently instructed brokers to unknowingly or not, to commit crime. [u/sharkopotamus](https://www.reddit.com/user/sharkopotamus/) says that *"As you can see, the function code is correct (FC 02), but the Processed As field is incorrect. Processed As should have been "Stock Dividend," instead of "Stock Split.""* **So we are looking for documents that support FC02 + "Stock Split" or anything that is FC06.** Good stuff fam. + +Edit 2: I was thinking, the more you see “the DTCC has committed fraud” the more likely you are to accept it as fact, and move on. The less likely you are to continue digging for evidence. + +Edit 4: clarifications + +Edit 5: first snek, 2:20am 💜 + **$KABOSU** launched less than 48 hours ago and has since then become the most successful launch in cryptocurrencies' history! + +Launching in the evening of May 10th, **$KABOSU** managed to gather **over 5000 Telegram members at the time of presales**. **In less than 24 hours, it has set a new record by reaching a 100 Million Market Cap!** You read that right, in less than a day **$KOBASU** has reached a market capitalization that SafeMoon took 2 weeks to achieve! + +But if it reached that much then it's over right? + +Hahahahaha no. While all this sounds like an incredible achievement on its own, it is only the beginning! **This project as a whole is not even 48 hours old.** Please let that sink in. How much potential do you think that this coin has just based on this one simple information? + +A lot? That would be putting it lightly. Please read on to understand what you just have stumbled upon during your daily lunch break scrolling. + +Another charity token I assume? + +Yes! But also SO MUCH MORE. Let me explain: **$KOBASU** is a charity token at heart. It wants to help animals and do good. But reducing the project to that would be criminal. + +Since yesterday, the team behind **$KABOSU** has officially unveiled their plans for the upcoming months, and let me tell you, dear unsuspecting reader, that this is once again something that you've never seen before. + +**They are working on an entire ecosystem.** What does this mean? Well, while **$KABOSU** has launched and is already a smashing success waiting to show the world that it's only just a baby, the real piece you need to remember is that the team is building around it something absolutely monumental, and that with it is coming **a real use-case** that will further strengthen this coin's position as a one of a kind on the BSC ! + +And if like me you are the impatient type, then rejoice because I hear that more concrete infos are coming very soon! + +What the hell? Where do I sign!? + +Waaaaait it is not over yet! To this, you gotta add some basic but important information to make the picture complete: **Locked liquidity** for one! **Renounced ownership** for another! And how not to mention **the insane liquidity which basically guarantees that $KABOSU is the most solid coin you'll ever see!** Did you ever see a project where someone can sell 50'000 dollars and the price barely moves? Until **$KABOSU** me neither, but this is a reality I am happy to live in now! + +I'M LAZY AND I HATE TO READ, MAKE IT SHORT PLEASE + +**Not even 2 days old yet. ATH at a 100M MCap in less than 24 hours. Nice consolidation around 50M right now. Monstrous liquidity pool. Locked liquidity. Renounced ownership. over 70'000 holders. Over 20'000 people on the telegram. A team so solid you could lay the house you bought thanks to $KABOSU on them. Dogs. A use-case project that is announced as being unlike anything we've ever seen yet.** + +Pardon the fomo-ish aspect of this post, but please do yourself a service and take the time to check this out! I am convinced that this is the next big thing. Who am I kidding? This is already a big thing. It is just bound to become colossal! + +**As always, DYOR and only invest what you are ready to lose !** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**Relevant links** + +🐕 [**Website**](https://kabosutoken.io/) + +📁 [**BSCscan**](https://bscscan.com/token/0x4A824eE819955A7D769e03fe36f9E0C3Bd3Aa60b) + +🥞 [**Buy on Pancakeswap**](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x4A824eE819955A7D769e03fe36f9E0C3Bd3Aa60b) + +📈 [**Charts**](https://dex.guru/token/0x4a824ee819955a7d769e03fe36f9e0c3bd3aa60b-bsc) + +🐸 [**CoinGecko**](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/kabosu) + +✋ [**Renounced Ownership**](https://bscscan.com/tx/0x8567d73a1c23a3b961aa1651be34ac2faa091563ac5f7f609130e8d6f532d4a5) + +🔒 [**Locked liquidity**](https://unicrypt.network/amm/pancakev2/ilo/0x798d4d97D9353955724e8cEDbA5619fFe1592d0D) +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-stock-rallies-as-wedbush-analyst-raises-bull-case-target-to-1-000-11606131704 + +And he said he is now seeing “a major inflection of EV demand globally, with expectations that EV vehicles ramp from the current 3% of total auto sales to 10% by 2025. + +“We believe this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit the clear EV category leader Tesla over the next few years especially in the key China region which we believe could represent ~40% of its EV deliveries by 2022, given the current brisk pace of sales with 150K+ deliveries in its first year out of the gates with Giga 3,” Ives wrote. + +Tesla is making new 52 week high everyday. Now people is trading on these ev momentum stocks. Tesla is the most stable one since it has multiple revenue streams. +No triangles or memes here but if we look at the graph that everyone knows, [https://i.imgur.com/y2oqsV8.png](https://i.imgur.com/y2oqsV8.png), I can tell you why I believe we are in the bear trap phase, and not the despair phase. + +&#x200B; + +Smart Money: People like you, me, friends/family we convinced to get in, whales (rich trust fund kids/hedge funds) that were "smart" to realize the potential of cryptos while Joe Shmo is just hearing of it and thinks its a scam or just too risky. + +&#x200B; + +Institutional Investors: The same week that bitcoin futures was launched is when the price of bitcoin popped and it all went downhill from there, putting us into the bear trap. We are still in the institutional phase and we just had a huge announcement to get us out of the bear trap, that being Fidelity is providing a platform for institutional investors. SEC rules require institutional investors to maintain their assets with a third-party “qualified custodian”. Before Fidelity, the only place that had this was coinbase and that was launched last summer, but no large institution is going to want to use coinbase, just type in coinbase in google and you will hear countless nightmare scenarios (flash crashes, servers crashing during the most crucial trading times, security issues, locked accounts, you name it). Just imagine how difficult it would be for an institution, let alone their clients, to trust Coinbase with millions if not billions of their dollars. Hell you can't even talk to someone over the phone with Coinbase (except for "unauthorized access to your account"). Fidelity is providing a trustful platform for them (tons already use fidelty, its the fifth largest investment company in the world and if its coming here, you can bet its coming to other places like vanguard and blackrock (experts are saying this as well). Another reason they wouldn't want to use Coinbase is for liquidity. Meaning they don't want to have their money in two different places. If they put it in Coinbase, they can only buy crypto with it, well these guys like to move their money around a lot and don't want to be tied to one type of asset. If everything is in one account they can do as they please. + +&#x200B; + +Public Phase: This is when crypto trading comes to places that most people already have access to like Charles Schwab, E-trade, fidelity (retail), and currently robinhood (after they just removed the waiting list in January 2019. Joe Shmo would be much more comfortable buying something from a place he has been using for years but also not having transfer money out of his investment account into another account (bigger deal than you think, its a big step transferring money into coinbase and a much bigger step putting money back into Coinbase after you removed it from there). + +&#x200B; + +China (not a significant reason and pretty speculative): Their HSI stock market index has been only increased 5% since 2015. The nasdaq 100 has increased by 65% in the same time. Investors in China are growing impatient and irritated by the stagnant market. To combat this (and to protect their money from their government) they have been buying up properties like crazy in the US and Canada over the past few years. However the housing market has also been stagnate for the past year. Couple this with the year of the pig (hear me out). The Chinese are VERY superstitious, ask any Chinese person that is actually from China. They don't even have 13th floors in their buildings because its an unlucky number (they just skip that floor number, you would be called stupid and insane here if you did that), they also don't want a house with the front door facing the street because then their "money will run away", and for 8888 yuan ($1,300) was a major resistance level for Bitcoin because the number 8 is considered their lucky number and they would sell at this price. The year of the pig symbolizes a year that brings great wealth, they will use this as a reason to invest (call me crazy, I don't care), but remember that the Chinese have 50% of the money in the world. We also know that China also has 80% of the bitcoin mining pools, and more importantly that 20% of the cypto volume comes from China. + +&#x200B; + +Japan: Their largest bank, MUFG, 5th largest in the world, is developing a cryptocurrency that can handle a million transactions a second. They need to have this in time for the 2020 Summer Olympics because Japan's current financial system won't be able to handle the volume of transactions they expect during the event. Also its a solution to the government's plan to go cashless by 2025. We know that 40% of the crypto trading volume comes from Japan and so if Japan replaces cash with cryptos or even just becomes part of the economy, well then we know what this means. + +&#x200B; + +Lastly here is a technical analysis showing that we have hit bottom because BTC used the 200 moving week average as a support (couldn't show this with ETH because it hasn't been around long enough but we know ETH and BTC are correlated). + +[https://i.imgur.com/4gTu8fS.png](https://i.imgur.com/4gTu8fS.png) + +&#x200B; + +If we really are in a bear trap, I speculate the price could go to $4,200 by the end of 2020. + +&#x200B; + +For those who want to follow me [https://twitter.com/ScienceGuy9489](https://twitter.com/ScienceGuy9489) +I'm thinking of getting a dog (golden retriever or lab). The kids *really* want one. From a fat lifestyle, with nice things (expensive furniture, fancy cars, etc), a clean house (weekly cleaners) and the desire to travel at least a few times per year, I wonder if it is a good idea. One theme I hear on this sub is how important your time is (you can't buy it or get it back, etc.) Dogs are a lot of work. Brushing/grooming, cleaning up hair (more often than the weekly cleaners so out comes the vacuum), walks when you may not have time or at least the desire, and the list goes on. I've never been a pet person which you can probably tell by the tone, but I'm really torn on this. Thoughts? + +Edit: They say money can't buy happiness, but this would make my family really happy. I can see a personal benefit from the companionship, stress reduction and maybe even a little more exercise. I dove right into the concerns in the post to hear the fat perspective. +>The story of U.S. inflation in 2021 could very well amount to this: It’s all a mirage. + +>Americans are likely to see prices jump across a variety of sectors next year, thanks in part to Covid-19 vaccines that will potentially turbocharge demand for such pandemic casualties as travel and tickets to sporting events. + +>With prices also climbing for some inputs such as copper and lumber, inflation could very well reach or surpass the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in some months. Financial markets are increasingly pricing in higher inflation in coming years, and debates over whether the central bank should start easing back its record monetary stimulus may intensify. + +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-07/get-ready-for-the-great-u-s-inflation-mirage-of-2021 +First, about 6 months ago, $5.5K was taken out of my checking account via ACH. Chase refunded it and I closed out the account and spent a month reconnecting all of my finances that used that account. This just happened again with $3K from my new account. The first time it showed up as a PayPal payment and this time it showed up as a Venmo payment, but neither showed up on my PayPal or Venmo account. + +I believe someone somehow has access to my phone number? Is this possible? They can send and receive texts from my number I believe. There are a few reasons why: There was a few months where I would receive calls from numbers that were very similar to mine (the area code and first 3 digits were the same). I finally answered some of them, and they were usually the same, I would say hello, and the person on the line would be sound confused and say, "hello who is this?" I asked 2 of them how they got my number and one of them said they got a text from their son from this number and was calling back. Also, I just reset my Venmo and PayPal password again to be super secure, and when I went to get a verification code, it came from two different numbers, 86753 (which is legit because I've received all my notifications from that number), but another text came from 16466796281 with the verification code. I feel like this one is fake. I'm guessing they are brute forcing my password and using my phone number somehow to 2 step verify? My passwords are way better now than they were before and aren't brute forceable anymore. + +Has anyone heard of a scam like this? Is there a way to see if someone is using my number somehow? Is there anything else I can do? Thanks! + +EDIT: It sounds like from the comments the phone calls and the bank fraud are separate issues, although I am not fully convinced based on the timing. I believe my Chase login was compromised. I have changed passwords for Chase, Venmo, PayPal, Google and made them even more secure. I use LastPass for all of my logins. I am also getting a bunch of people saying SMS 2 factor authentication is awful. I'm going to use Google Authenticator where possible. I still have a hard time believing SMS is worse than email authentication. Any proof on that would be appreciated. + +EDIT 2: Thanks everyone! It's crazy that a lot of people are going through the same phone spoofing ordeal. There has been a ton of great advice. I'm still trying to read through all of it. This sub is awesome! + +EDIT 3: Some more info, immediately after the money was stolen, I checked Chase and Venmo and it looked like I had unauthorized logins on both of them. On Venmo I was able to remove all of the devices. For Chase I had to call support, but they were able to clear all saved devices as well. I never got any validation texts for logins. This keeps pointing me back to someone having access to my phone. I'm going to go into T-Mobile today. +Do you think the first $100K is the hardest? How many people in their lives actually get to save $100K through hard work, investing, etc. + +For me, I knew it would not have been possible unless I was extremely frugal and worked multiple jobs. Frugality is important when you are starting off. I think now that I'm a little more comfortable, I can afford to spend a bit more, especially with a higher income and some investments working for me on the side. +This is both blatant market manipulation and morally abhorrent. WSB should bring a gofundme to crowdsource funding for a class action lawsuit against Citadel, calling for market makers to be permanently banned from having a vested interest in any one company or stock. + + +Good afternoon! + +I am in the process of building a position in BNS for the long term & do not intend to sell. I have noticed Scotiabank's performance has been weak over the years relative to other large Canadian banks. + +Not counting today's decline or day to day fluctuations, I am wondering what sets BNS apart from its peers enough to justify a lower valuation and depressed share price dating back to its 2014-2017 peak. From what I can see BNS net income is similar to BMO & CIBC however the difference in share price gains is fairly noticeable (maybe excluding CIBC in this case). I also noticed BNS pays a larger dividend than most of its peers. + +I can understand why banks such as TD and RBC command a higher valuation as they have significantly more total and net revenue, however compared to the other big Candian banks it appears as if BNS has been lacking something. Before building a larger position in BNS I would like some of your thoughts and feedback. + +Thank you all! + +Edit: thanks to everyone who contributed, lots of relevant information posted +Our current situation is we have our home, and one single family home that we are currently renting. My wife and I work together as a team, we’ve been together since college (10 years ago) and have always had a plan to do real estate as a way to grow our wealth. + +When we finished college we looked for a cheap house that needed a lot of sweat equity. And boy did we find one. We got a single family 3 Bed 1.5 Bath home with a walkout basement for around $80k (probably worth $130k now easily). We lived in the house while we fixed it up. We redid everything ourselves and learned a lot in the process. Learned how to tile when we did our kitchen and bathroom, but more importantly we learned a lot of things NOT to do. + +The goal was to keep buying fixer upper houses live in them while we fix them up, and then look for another one when the house is paid off (kind of a snowball method). That plan was setback due to the fact that my grandparents decided to sell their house and 2 acre property. I always loved the property and worked with my Grandmother to buy it from them. We paid $170k for the house, which was slightly more than it was worth but that was what my grandparents needed to pay for their new patio home without getting a mortgage so I was okay with it for that reason. This is the house we are currently living in. + +Our first house that we bought and fixed up is now fully paid off and has great tenants. Take the time to get good tenants, and make the effort to keep them. Every year our good tenants stay with us we give them an extra $100 off their rent in December. They got $300 off this year. We like doing this, it’s our way of giving back and it makes for a better holiday season for our tenants. + +We are not real estate *moguls* by any means but this is where we are at on our journey. We aspire to pay off our current house (hopefully doable in the next few years) and then start buying more properties to rent. We don’t mind doing the fixer upper stuff which gives us a lot of options when looking for houses. + +Real estate is a long term investment. 10 years ago when my wife and I first started talking about doing this I had no idea what to imagine, but it has been a very rewarding experience. + +Financially we could have bought more properties, and leveraged our debt and credit more, but we are risk averse people and decided to play it safe which is comfortable for us. + +Everyone has a unique perspective and that’s how we are currently doing things. Hope some of you find some insight from this post. And as always I’ll answer any questions you got. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Breaking news or important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +I've found a rental and the numbers make sense. What inspections should i do, questions should i pose to the current owner / realtor, etc.? First time rental property purchaser - hopefully this one goes through! + +Multifam, 4 unit home. 90 year old building in need of some TLC which i'm willing to do. I'm concerned there might be things beneath the surface of the home that I'm not aware of - how do i ensure i'm not buying a bag of nails? +She is 67 years old. She's worked her entire life. In 2008, I listened to her cry in her kitchen as she faced it all falling apart. + +I didn't know what 'they' did then, but I sure as fuck do now. I just got off the phone with her on three-way to give her support. I gave her a script "I want to direct register my shares of Gamestop in my name through Computershare". She did great. She asked me for the help "because I trust my son, and I've never seen you like this before." + +So never doubt that it's a bunch of "nerds in their basement's basement". + +Nope. I own my home, do well in life, and we're everywhere. We're not a joke, we're not a meme. We're investors and we know value when we see it. All ages, all walks of life. + +Shorts are undeniably fucked. This is bigger than we know. + +May every single one of those shares sting shorts as much it did to hear her cry over her home in 2008. +[https://www.financialexpress.com/money/how-to-become-insurance-free-and-make-crores-instead-of-paying-term-life-insurance-premiums/2306690/](https://www.financialexpress.com/money/how-to-become-insurance-free-and-make-crores-instead-of-paying-term-life-insurance-premiums/2306690/) + +&#x200B; + +TLDR about the article. + +It talks about a guy who saved money instead of 'costly' insurance. + +Excerpt 1 : instead of buying a single term life cover of Rs 1 crore, he purchased five term life insurance policies of Rs 20 lakh each with 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-year maturity. + + Isn't it cheaper to buy long term insurance. + +&#x200B; + +Excerpt 2: with a systematic approach he was able to build Rs 1 crore in just 7 years and cancel all the insurance policies! And that Rs 1 crore has grown into a lot more since then. + +It means he was saving 14 lakh per year. Even if he was saving 50% of salary he would need 7\*14 L at a corpus of 7 years annual savings which comes to 2 Cr. + +Am I missing something here or this is just a book about snake oil salesman. +[AMA Details](https://i.imgur.com/kML8I1W.png) + +**[Verification on Twitter](https://twitter.com/pratikoswal88/status/1393569734092746757)** + +**[Discord Link](https://discord.gg/hqBNg4u)** + +This Sunday morning, grab a cup of hot beverage, and join us for chitchat on all things finance / investments / economics, with [Pratik Oswal](https://twitter.com/pratikoswal88?lang=en). + +Pratik studied math and economics at Emory University (USA), and has an MBA from London Business School. Presently, he leads passive funds business at Motilal Oswal AMC. + +You've already heard of Motilal's S&P500 Index fund, or MoNASDAQ 100 ETF / FoF. He's the one who's responsible for these products. + +We've already had two rounds of text-based AMA with Pratik on Discord this week, and here are some of the highlights / nuggets of wisdom (you need to be on our Discord to be able to access these links, [join here](https://discord.gg/hqBNg4u)): + +- Motilal Oswal AMC would be launching MSCI EM Index fund later thid month, or early next month. And they've plans to launch MSCI EAFE Index fund later this year. [Discussion link](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/546638393895813120/841637142252748800) + +- Most Index funds, at their current AUM levels, are loss-making propositions for AMCs. Predominantly due to transaction costs for transacting in underlying securities. [Discussion link](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/546638393895813120/841652939869257729) + +- Motilal Oswal top management has close to few thousand Cr. invested in their own schemes. In terms of _skin in the game_, Motilal Oswal ranks one of the highest among all AMCs. [Discussion link](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/546638393895813120/841653441306558464). + +- Pratik's also in-charge of an AMC-backed new-gen free direct MF investing platform, [Glide Invest](https://www.glideinvest.com/). + + He spends about ~50% of his time at work, leading development of this product. [Link to discussion](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/546638393895813120/841639627127652404). + +- Pratik invests one single equity fund, been investing in it for ~7 years now. Guess the name of the fund without [clicking / tapping on this link](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/546638393895813120/842368100857937950). + +Pratik's _money value of time_ is to assign higher dollar value per unit time, for tasks that he might find more interesting doing. + +---- + +Please add your queries here, if you cannot be there in the audience for the AMA. We'll field these in front of Pratik tomorrow. + +Reach out to us if you're having difficulty in joining our [Discord](https://discord.gg/hqBNg4u). + +--- + +**NOTE**: Some of the numbers above were said in jest, during chit-chat, and have not been verified rigorously. Please take these with a pinch of salt. And if you notice any discrepancy, kindly reach out. +This will probably be downvoted because it goes against the grain of popular thought here. + +The big problem with this subreddit and why you really shouldn't listen to anything here if you are new and naïve to investing is the constant jumping on bandwagons. + +The reason why 90% of investors simply do not beat the market indexes is due to jumping on popular stocks and funds after they have been hyped up to stupid price levels. + +Here are some examples:- Tesla- Nio- Ark funds + +The reason I put Ark in their is because retail investors keep pumping ark up on every single subreddit every day. Here's the fact: It's performed very well *recently* in a 10 year bull market. It has yet to prove itself long term and investing is all about long term. + +Tesla and nio are simply in EV bubbles, the EV space is similar to where the dot com was in 2000. It doesn't matter how good a company is if you are buying it for way over it's intrinsic value. + +Peter lynch mentioned this in his book. Retail investors constantly switch to the best performing funds in recent years. **These funds then lagg behind the market index. Probably due to their holdings becoming overvalued compared to fundamentals.** + +A lot of you guys here need to understand that. Also, just because I am a bear on these stocks/funds doesn't mean I am going to short them because that's timing the market. + +Edit: It seems a lot of people agree with me here. So I created a new subreddit for proper analysis of undervalued and unloved stocks using data & numbers: [https://www.reddit.com/r/UndervaluedStonks/comments/kc9xbz/irobot\_a\_great\_company\_undervalued\_by\_43/](https://www.reddit.com/r/UndervaluedStonks/comments/kc9xbz/irobot_a_great_company_undervalued_by_43/) +Not financial advice. Pure opinion and speculation. + +UPDATE: u/jsmar18 made a great point and asked me what “X” represents in my math. I don’t have an answer. When you multiply the glitch by the price at the glitch you get a large number and I’m not sure what that represents. Take this all with a large grain of salt. + +UPDATE 2: u/dramatic-pancake made a great observation about “X”. Saying that “X” could possibly be the amount of money total towards the stock. Currently that number shows $4.3B in the equation but I’m not sure how to verify this. Furthermore, subtracting the funds raised by the company and subtracting that number might be accurate. + +Let’s not get our tits jacked here. This was just an experiment looking at something. Frankly I’m shocked it got so much attention. I’m fine with being completely wrong and hopefully it sparks others to think critically about the glitch and keep an eye on it. I’m retarded. + +A few thoughts: I don’t believe hedge funds have covered and close their short positions. I believe the price is manipulated and not reflective of reality. I am not sure what the glitches are. I am open to admitting I’m wrong. I appreciate the upvotes not for karma but for visibility and hopefully some smarter apes can help. Thanks for reading and being kind apes. + +———— + +Down to business.... + +Edit: The real price CURRENTLY unmanipulated at $209 is actually $5,535.10 (personal opinion). My floor still needs to look like a phone number. + +TLDR: glitch formula back in March showed $182.02 was a price point in which ~$1,700 a share was the target. New glitch showed up yesterday. With the same equation below the price shows $5,535.10. If $209 becomes a new battle as was $180-$182, I believe this glitch might be showing us what the actual price is without manipulation. Who knows 🤷🏽 + +Glitch date: Friday June 25, 21 +2,073,913,491 (glitch) * $209.51 = 434,505,615,499.41 / 78,500,000 (total shares) = $5,535.10 + +glitch number * price at glitch = X / total share in float = $5,535.10 + +Reference: + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7vvy3/need_a_wrinkly_brain_for_this_one_2_billion/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf + +—————- + +LIST OF PREVIOUS GLITCH NUMBERS + +94,189,110 - Feb 22 + +634,322,033 - March 23 + +290,114,478 - April 26 + +1,853,259,956 - March 25 + +63,039,337 - May 25 + +————— + +PAST GLITCHES AND FORMULAS + +Glitch #1 Revised (73.5M shares) +94,189,110 (glitch) * $46.12 (price) = 4,344,001,753.20 +4,344,001,753.20 / 73,500,000 (total shares) = 59.10 +59.10 + 46.12 = $105.22 + +Glitch #2 Revised (73.5M shares) +634,322,033 (glitch) * $182.02 (price) = 115,459,296,466.66 +115,459,296,466.66 / 73,500,000 (total shares) = 1,570.87 +1,570.87 + 182.02 = $1,752.89 + +Glitch #3 Revised (73.5M shares) +290,114,478 (glitch) * $183.77(price) = 53,314,337,622.06 +53,314,337,622.06 / 73,500,000 (total shares) = 725.36 +725.36 + $183.75 = $909.11 + +Glitch #4 Revised (73.5M shares) +1,853,259,956 (glitch) * $183.75(price) = 340,536,516,915 +340,536,516,915 / 73,500,000(total shares) = 4633.14 +4633.14 + $183.75 = $4816.89 + +Not financial advice. I am pleased with my investment. And I’m an idiot. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: I’d like to make a prediction that $209 price point is danger zone. Price may get pushed back down and battle to stay above $209. Just like what happened with the $182.02 price point weeks ago. + +——————- + +Be excellent to each other. +Here since December. +Staying until food stamps or Lambo. + +——————- +I'm going to keep this short as I had just found it. Also am super smooth-brained so fact-check and this constitutes as NFA pre-amble. + +&#x200B; + +[The largest litigation ever against the SEC and the Department of Justice of the U.S. was at the sum of 3.87 trillion. The company? CMKM Diamonds. I'm sure some of you beautifully wrinkled apes already know this tidbit, but to those, like me who did not....](https://preview.redd.it/v89e5efu43n71.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9d664289d82a6330f2aff6f95e093633f53f787f) + +&#x200B; + +The suit contends between June 1, 2004 and October 28, 2005 "a total of 2.25 trillion 'phantom' shares of CMKM Diamonds, Inc. were sold into the public market through legitimate brokers, illegitimate brokers and dealers, market-makers, hedge funds, ex clearing transactions and private transactions." + +[https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/m172923/cmkx-shareholders-coalition-multi-trillion-dollar-class-action-suit-filed-agai](https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/m172923/cmkx-shareholders-coalition-multi-trillion-dollar-class-action-suit-filed-agai) + +Turns out that there were execs in the company working alongside mm's, brokers and dealers issuing trillions of shares. + +Here we go again with the word "glitches". The ticker experienced it as well: + +&#x200B; + +>During the spring and summer of 2004 the promoter from Saskatchewan, Mr. Casavant, then CEO, issued a paper mountain of stock, probably close to a world record. **By September of that year, the shares outstanding had ballooned to nearly 780 billion.** (In December 2004, around 75 billion shares were retired, reducing the outstanding to 703 billion, where it stands today.) On one day, CMKM traded 39.6 billion shares, presumably more than all the volume on all the exchanges of the world combined. The trading volume regularly triggered -- at 2,147,483,647 shares -- a 32-bit signed integer glitch in all quote services except Stockwatch, which programmed around the problem. + +[https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read\_msg.aspx?message\_id=46748341](https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46748341) + +&#x200B; + +>\[Complaint paragraph 31\] During the period of June 1, 2004 through October 28, 2005 a total of 2.25 Trillion “phantom” shares of CMKM Diamonds Inc., was sold into the public market through legitimate brokers, illegitimate brokers and dealers, market makers, hedge funds, ex-clearing transactions and private transactions. The sales of the majority of such shares were at all times known to the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Defendants herein. +> +>\[Complaint paragraph 32\] At some date prior to June 1, 2004 the Securities and Exchange Commission in concert with the Department of Justice of the United States, together combined with Robert A. Maheu and others to utilize CMKM Diamonds, Inc. for the purpose of trapping a number of widely disbursed entities and persons who were believed to be engaged in naked short selling of CMKM Diamonds Inc. stock and cellar boxing the company. +> +>[https://www.qualitystocks.com/government-sting-operation-leaving-cmkm-diamonds-shareholders-tired-of-waiting-for-reimbursement/](https://www.qualitystocks.com/government-sting-operation-leaving-cmkm-diamonds-shareholders-tired-of-waiting-for-reimbursement/) + +The kicker is that those plaintiffs have not been reimbursed for it. + +An affidavit in 2010 was filed in BC, Canada by a shareholder stating: + +>12. “During the period from March, 2004 through August, 2006, on behalf of CMKM Diamonds, Inc. Robert A. Maheu, with assistance from others, negotiated a settlement with the illegitimate brokers, dealers, market makers, hedge funds, and other persons and entities that had engaged in naked short selling of CMKM Diamonds Inc. stock and cellar boxing the company. In exchange for a U. S. Government promise of no prosecution for such sales, the wrongdoers each promised to pay negotiated amounts to a frozen trust for disbursal at a later time.” +> +>18. The fact that the SEC participated in a sting operation using CMKX, then lied to CMKX shareholder representatives is only one issue in this case, the second is the modus operandi of the SEC and other regulators involved, including the U.S. and Canadian Governments, and in particular the RCMP and FBI. Given the fact the SEC and these authorities have conducted sting operations over the past decade regarding the counterfeiting of the stock market it needs to be explained how the same crime continued unabated for a decade by the same perpetrators. Evidence that will be presented by the Coalition will include congressional investigations and whistleblowers from the SEC that clearly prove the SEC has engaged in several well known cover-ups of crimes involving the counterfeiting of the stock market and are in fact “in bed with the industry” they regulate to the point where they make regulations with the same perpetrators which aid in facilitating the crime and its cover-up. They have ensured that retail victims and the companies they invested in would never recover from the fraud committed against them, and they made sure the perpetrators would not be held accountable, the whole time multiple Government Agencies and authorities watched and did nothing to prevent trillions of dollars in loses to the general public who were unwitting victims in this pandemic fraud. + +[https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read\_msg.aspx?message\_id=46161931](https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46161931) + +Link to Hodges and Associates VS SEC 2010 Filing: [https://docdro.id/VrMbEDd](https://docdro.id/VrMbEDd) + +Link to SEC response to Hodges filing: [https://docdro.id/YOPhDCQ](https://docdro.id/YOPhDCQ) + +&#x200B; + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +From a longevity perspective which one is more suitable. + +* Public company like National Insurance, LIC, United India - have capping and limitations yet seems more secure to stay with for rest of the life +* Good Private on the other hand ( HDFC ERGO, MAX, ICICI ) - Have more benefits, large cover, no capping .. yet doesn't not inculcate confidence to stay with. As on date these firms look promising, but the risk that comes to mind is loosing a policy post retirement .. when it is required the most. + +What is your opinion? Does this decision vary for someone who's in 30s than someone who's close to 50? + +&#x200B; + +Edit : How's HDFC ERGO ? My agent is pushing me to switch from United to HDFC +I’ve been working doing manual labor, in retail, food service in some combination for 15 some odd years. +For the first time in my life I have a full time job, in a less aggravating environment, that gives overtime. +I opened my check and I hadn’t kept track of the overtime hours I worked, and didn’t know how much it was for. I know it may not be a deal for many (why I’m subbed here) but it was a FOUR FIGURE NUMBER. I was moved to tears, the sense of relief from being able to have a job that can help me move up instead of just treading water is unbelievable. I don’t have friends, so thanks for reading and letting me share my happiness. +It’s more than just the money I think, it’s what it represents, things are looking up. + +Edit: holy moly! Was less than expecting this response! I’m trying to respond as much as I can but alas, IM AT WORK! 😆 I will look through every message as I can. This community is more supportive than I could have hoped/expected. Thank you everyone for the kind words, and Thank you kinda stranger for the gold!!!!! And for the silver!!!! (Username to go here) I dunno how it works (2nd ever and I think I wasted the first one?) but I’ll figure it out! Thanks again FRIENDS! + +Edit 2: didn’t even mention sorry! Through friends of friends I heard about a certification class for security work. After putting my hat into the ring for consideration, about 6 weeks later I was asked to pick up a shift. Within a month I was certified with all the bells and whistles they required (proper ID, background check, fingerprinting, educational course) and got trained. They liked me and kept me on, they were short handed at the time so I was able to prove myself over those first few weeks just working weekends while trying to figure out how to keep working at the job I had. It was pet retail with a revolving door of terrible managers, and closing in on the holidays, so they wanted to push me around and say I wouldn’t get hours if I wasn’t available for the days I needed off for the new job. I pretty much called their bluff, and they gave me crappy hours to just be on register. I had been working for the company for years was certified to work with the animals themself (cleaning cages to giving medicine) but they constantly put me as cashier because I was more efficient and my customer service, I’ll brag, is above par. So I just waited, biding my time until I got the full time offer at the new job, and then gave my two weeks. They were floored, panicked even? When the two weeks were almost up, my store manager told me the team didn’t want me to leave and asked if I was interested in picking up hours when I could. “I’ll let you know” I said as earnestly as I could, catching a little bit of feels despite myself at my team speaking up for me. That was the last I spoke to him. + +Now THAT felt friggin good. + + +P.s. sorry for grammar spelling and formatting mistakes. +Hi all. I work at one of the FANG's and have recently been offered an exec role at a well known Fortune 500 company. This would be my first exec role, and possibly last if things work out as expected. However I do need some advice. My current job is fairly stress free, that's unlikely to continue in this role. My total comp is likely to double, and lead to being about to FIRE for sure in a few years, and FAT FIRE a few after that. I'm looking for advice in a few things. How do you maintain work life balance in a new role, and your first exec role? What kinds of things besides comp did you negotiate for? What's the questions perhaps I should be asking that I haven't thought of yet? Current net worth is about $1.7m . And I'm 41. Should be able to double that in about 3-4 years. One other complication: my wife has complicated health issues. Switching insurance also feels stressful. The new company's isn't as good. Has anyone bought additional insurance on top of their employer's offering? Is there such a product? + +Thanks in advance! +Hello everyone + +Since were all from EU i believe that the same laws apply for organic food production. Do you believe that organic food is healthier than conventional food? + +I know that for organic food there are stricter laws, but organic food doesnt prohibit the usage of poisons in general. Its just more limited usage of less selected ones. + +I buy only organic now but it does cost a fair amount more, than if id buy normal food. + +Do you believe i should be just buying normal food? +I am 23 years old and I am new to investing so I'd appreciate some advice. I accumulated a fair amount of money over the last months and I was looking to invest it somehow. + +I make about 3600-3700 euros a month after tax and I've got no loans nor student debt. I save about 2K per month and my plan is to invest 1K of said savings into index funds. I've got about 15K into my account and I was looking to start by investing 6K of it. + +But how do I choose good funds ? Do I need to invest in a lot of different ones ? I've currently got my eye on 3 that look stable enough. Nothing sophisticated about my choice other than the average interest rate and the yearly graphs. + +Another question would be whether 1K is too much or too little based on how much I save. I currently live with flatmates so I can save aggressively like that but I am not sure I'll be able to maintain that lifestyle for too long. + +The long term goal is to be able to collect enough equity for a mortgage in my late 20s. I am also kinda scared that the housing market will explode even more before then. + + +Edits: Spelling +**Preamble:** Michael Burry is definitely a controversial figure. He rose to fame betting against the subprime mortgage market and making a 489% return for his investors between Nov’00 inception and Jun’08 (SP500 returned just 3% in the same period). + +But recently I observed that in every news article/tweet he always talks about an impending crash. As recently as last week, he issued another warning stating that there would a “mother of all crashes soon due to the meme-stock and crypto rally that will approach the size of countries”. Basically, what I wanted to analyze was + +**Whether Michael Burry always predicts a crash and gets lucky when there is an actual crash or does his prediction actually turns out to be true most of the time?** + +**Analysis** + +The various news articles spanning over the last 15 years was obtained from Google News \[1\]. I flagged the date of each crash prediction and then analyzed the performance of the market/stock over the + +a. Next 1 Month + +b. Next 1 Quarter + +c. Till Date + +I will not be including the subprime mortgage crash prediction in this analysis as we all know how that turned out and how that made him famous. Also, there are no news reports covering Burry before that. + +The performance figures are calculated based on the prediction. If Burry specifies a stock, then I am using that particular stock as the benchmark. If its broader prediction relating to the overall market, then the benchmark used is S&P 500. + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/37vw6kqfle871.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a15906da2158ea19b8997ffc089be1046cc6c39) + +There was a long gap of 9 years after the 2008 crash where Burry stayed out of the public view and did not make any warnings or predictions about the market. + +His first verifiable prediction after the 2008 crisis [came on May 2017](https://www.lombardiletter.com/michael-burry-stock-market-crash/10895/) where he warned that we can expect a global financial meltdown and World War 3. In his exact words + +“I didn’t go out looking for this, I just did the math. Every bit of my logic is telling me the global financial system is going to collapse” + +But it’s been 4 years since the prediction and the market is chugging along just fine. S&P500 has returned a respectable 93% till date and there is [no imminent threat](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/) of a World War happening. + +Burry’s next prediction was on [Sep 2019](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-big-short-s-michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos-1.1310874) where he said that index funds are the next market bubble and is comparable to subprime CDOs. He said that index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he said, and “it will be ugly” when they do. + +This prediction also did not pan out as S&P500 has returned 50% till date over the last two years and the only crash that occurred during this period was the Covid-19 flash crash from which the market made a sudden recovery. + +Burry’s next target was on Tesla where he said that Tesla’s stock price is [ridiculous](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-reveals-hes-short-tesla-tells-elon-musk-to-issue-more-stock-at-its-ridiculous-price/articleshow/79538731.cms) and that it would [collapse](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-predicts-tesla-stock-will-collapse-like-the-housing-bubble-enjoy-it-while-it-lasts/articleshow/80171258.cms) like the housing stock bubble. I have kept both the articles there which is only one month difference as we don’t know exactly when he shorted the stock. The returns would be substantially different if he did it in Dec’20 when compared to Jan’21 as Tesla had a phenomenal run in December. + +He [reiterated](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-warns-the-stock-market-is-dancing-on-a-knifes-edge-and-fears-hes-being-ignored-again/articleshow/81154288.cms) again on Feb’21 that the market is dancing on knives edge and he is being ignored again. He felt the boom in day traders due to the meme stock mania and the increasing cash flow to the index trackers. This prediction also hasn’t turned out to be right as the market has returned 11% to-date over the last 4 months. + +Burry’s only prediction that we can say confidently was right after the 2008 mortgage crisis is that he called [Bitcoin a speculative bubble](https://moguldom.com/340499/michael-burry-who-predicted-2008-mortgage-crash-says-bitcoin-is-a-speculative-bubble-sends-prices-lower/) in March’21. The coin has dropped 28% in around 3 months. Even in this case, we don’t have enough data to showcase how this prediction would turn out over the next one/two years. + +Burry was most active in 2021 making the most number of predictions with the latest in Jun’21 stating that we are currently in the [greatest speculative bubble of all time](https://moguldom.com/358632/investor-michael-burry-who-predicted-2008-subprime-mortgage-crisis-says-this-is-greatest-speculative-bubble-of-all-time-in-all-things/). Only time will tell how this one will turn out! + +**Conclusion** + +I have immense respect for Michael Burry and his skills. He was a doctor and worked as a Stanford Hospital neurology resident and then left to start his own hedge fund that became [extremely successful](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry). But, as you can see from the above analysis, he is more often wrong than right with his predictions \[2\]. + +But, stock market rewards predictions disproportionately \[3\]. Out of the 100 predictions you make, even if you get 99 wrong but get one extremely unlikely event right your overall returns will be extremely high. The key point here is that if you believe in Michael Burry, you will have to follow all of his recommendations \[4\] and not pick and choose what you feel comfortable with as most of the returns would be from an extremely unlikely scenario. + +**Footnotes** + +\[1\] Google News has a [nifty feature](https://researchbuzz.me/2019/07/22/if-youre-not-using-more-of-google-news-date-options-you-might-be-missing-out/#:~:text=As%20you%20probably%20know%2C%20Google,hours%2C%20and%20the%20past%20hour.) where they allow you to search news in specific time periods. Also, Google News seems to capture almost all the major publications other than the historical archives. + +\[2\] The current analysis is done using all the publicly available records. What we are not considering is the personal bets he made, conversations he had with his friends/family/investors etc. This can definitely alter the + +\[3\] Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a next profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as [black swan farming](http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html). + +\[4\] At that point, if you are that confident in his predictions, you can [invest in his hedge fund](https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/scion-asset-management-review). Please note that you need to have a minimum capital requirement ($1 million minimum investment and some extra regulatory requirements) + +*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor* +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +I want to know at what % of dip you decide to average down ? + +For ex : Let say I bought 5 hdfc bank stock at 1400. Now after a week it is at a 1500. In next week market turns red and hdfc bank is 3% or 5% down from ltp. Let say it is at 1450 so should I buy 5 more or i should only average down when it is below my first buying price i.e 1400 ? + +I hope you get my point what I am trying to ask. +Basically what the title says. + +Once upon a time, I had a BA in a social science field that was getting me nothing but low-paid jobs, and I would have needed to go to grad school to ever have a real chance of landing a salaried position. I paid my own way through college and was not willing to take on additional debt for a graduate degree in an already very competitive (and low-paying) field. I wanted to go in a different direction. + +I had worked part-time at a law firm during college, and I decided working in a support position (i.e. paralegal/legal assistant) was something I was very interested in. I applied for positions at every law firm in my general area and received nothing but rejection and one invitation to intern for free. No thanks, I had bills to pay. + +The military had always been something I'd considered and I did a lot of research on the different branches and what they offered. Turns out the Army offers an enlisted position that was exactly what I was looking for--Paralegal Specialist, and since I had a degree I would enter the military as an E-4. The Army also guarantees that the specific job you select is written into your contract. + +It's now a little over four years since I raised my right hand-- I now work for the Department of Justice. My military service counts towards my federal retirement and also put me in a higher leave bracket. The high-ranking connections I made in the Army JAG Corps combined with the job experience I received are what landed me this position. I have thousands of dollars in the bank that I saved because I didn't need to pay for housing, food, or health insurance while I served. I'll be able to use a VA-backed loan to buy a house when I choose to, and if I want to go back to school I can do so for free using the GI Bill. + +I write all this because I read this sub regularly and there are so many posts by people who don't make a living wage, or majored in something unmarketable (like me) and don't know what the next step should be, or who have student loan debt, or are just kind of lost in life. And I think military service could benefit a lot of those people. + +Of course this comes with a large caveat: the military comes with risks. You could deploy, you could be in combat, you could die, you could be involved in a freak training accident, etc. You could also get stuck in a terrible unit with toxic leadership. It's all luck of the draw really. I was incredibly fortunate in having a positive experience but I know many aren't so fortunate. It's the ultimate 'your experience may vary' scenario. + +But at least for me it was a great way to kickstart my career in the direction I wanted to go and set myself up financially. I just wanted to share my experience in case it helps anyone who may be considering the service. +So having heard about the GME stuff roughly when it first started, I started to get interested yesterday when it was really hitting the news. I've seen WSB people make loads on Tesla and other picks, and hearing about all those crazy gains and seeing portfolios was giving me some major FOMO. So I just jumped in, £150 of shares in BB - thinking this was going to be the next "rocket to mars!!" as it was being hyped up, and I'd get in early. + +Markets opened today, and I saw the shares crash, so I cashed out. May be against the HOLD mentality, and I may end up regretting it if shares bounce and make loads, but that kind of madness/anxious watching of tickers just isn't for me. + +But more importantly, I now know where I sit with this. I'm perfectly happy with the passive, diversified trackers. I can leave them, not worry about them, and just let them creep up in the background. They're not going to make me millions, but I'm also unlikely to lose half my savings and I won't get a stroke/heart attack in the background. + +Not sure why I felt the need to type this up, and I'm sure people will message me in a week with BB at $200+ or whatever, but I'm ok with that. I value my sanity more! + +Edit: Some interesting comments so far and loving reading what people have written - But please don't feel the need to PM me with insults. I'll admit this kind of investing is not for me and I was a "coward", but this was fun money and I've wasted a lot more on shit I don't need or use before. And i'm happy to talk about it, but there are people who have probably lost thousands over the last 24 hours especially, who may not be as accepting about it. + +Edit 2: This was money I could afford to lose, it was more the stress of watching the dip and then obsessively tracking and watching that made me sell up. I could have held and sold down the line, but from a mental health perspective i'd rather have lost the £60 then have that in the back of my head for days/weeks/months. Hence the sale. The FOMO and the hype train hit me and I chickened out early, but it just shows i'd rather not be an active investor - and there is nothing wrong with that. +(Cross posted from r/casualuk) + +£250 spare + +Hi, just a quick one - we have about £250 spare a month after bills and food etc. At the moment we use it to pay off debts, but we only have one more month of that. Is £250 a terribly thin margin? It feels huge because we are obviously used to not having it to 'spare'. + +We do plan on having 6months emergency saved although I think actually it might need to be more like 12 in this current climate? + +Presumably the £250 just going to get eaten into by the COL rise... + +Any is this an uncomfortable margin for you wise folks? +Again and again I see people saying that + +* Those who are successful wont share on reddit. Those who ARE successful will not share anything even to their friends. And so on... +* OR those who share their success simply lie. It's easy to be the best algo-trader in the comments since no one can validate the claims made. +* OR people even thing it's all is a scam + +Do they exist? What's your story? +Obligatory: external things don’t cause happiness of course but… + +What are some purchases that have improved your happiness. Very open ended question but some examples I thought of are: + +- Purchasing & learning a musical instrument +- Signing kids up for select sports +- Getting a dog +- Hot tub +- greenhouse/garden +- big house, custom house, second house +- etc… +Most of us are here to make money. Some people try trading, while others just HODL and check the prices every 5 minutes. And even though many of us have made decent amounts, neither of these two ways can guarantee a reliable source of income. + +But what if I told you that apart from trading and holding, there are other ways that can make you money in the crypto space? Well, in this guide I have collected most of these methods so that you can pick out the ones you prefer, and start earning passive income with crypto. + +# #1 - Staking + +Staking is an activity where a user locks or holds his funds in a cryptocurrency wallet to participate in maintaining the operations of a proof-of-stake (PoS)-based blockchain system. It is similar to crypto mining in the sense that it helps a network achieve consensus while rewarding users who participate. + +Staking can be an excellent way to increase your cryptocurrency holdings with minimal effort. You can stake various cryptocurrencies such as DOT, ADA, AVAX etc. By doing this, you earn a certain APY (annual percentage yield), usually between 4%-25% depending on how long you are willing to lock your cryptos. + +You can either stake a coin from a wallet such as Exodus, or you can stake your coins on a few exchanges (e.g. Binance). As always, DYOR before locking your crypto for 30-60-90 or more days. + +# #2 - Airdrops + +An airdrop, in the cryptocurrency business, is a marketing stunt that involves sending coins or tokens to wallet addresses in order to promote awareness of a new virtual currency. Small amounts of the new virtual currency are sent to the wallets of active members of the blockchain community for free or in return for a small service, such as retweeting a post sent by the company issuing the currency. + +The famous Uniswap airdrop made 49 million UNI claimable for users whose address has ever called the Uniswap v1 or v2 contracts. Each address could claim 400 UNI (worth ≈ $7400), which is a nice sum for doing almost nothing. + +It is worth keeping an eye out for possible future airdrops, so make sure to follow the news! :) + +# #3 - Reddit Moons + +Most of the users here already know, but for those who don't (and with a large influx of new members, it's possibly a lot of you guys), you can earn Moons for upvotes on this subreddit. But what are Moons? + +"Moons exist as ERC-20 tokens on the Ethereum blockchain, where they are managed by a suite of smart contracts that handle balances, transfers, distribution/claiming, and purchasing Special Memberships. The smart contracts and mobile apps have been reviewed and audited by Trail of Bits, an independent security firm with blockchain expertise. + +As blockchain tokens, Moons are independent of Reddit. Once you’ve earned them, neither Reddit nor moderators can take your Moons away or decide what you do with them. They’re all yours." + +In order to be able to claim your Moons, you'll need to download the Reddit mobile app and set up your vault (click on your icon at the top left of the home page). + +The main purpose for moons is to own a share of the community (vote on governance/distribution proposals) as well as redeem them for the premium membership, which allows you to change the color of your username, embed gifs in comments, add custom flair, etc. + +To sum it up, you earn Moons by commenting and posting - something that you'd normally do anyway. Just don't forget to create your vault! + +In case you want to, you have the option to sell your Moons. The current price of Moons is $0.071380 / coin (15/02/2021), and you can only sell your moons on Honeyswap at the moment. + +# #4 - Nexo, Celsius, etc. + +This method is very similar to what banks offer on your investment, except that on Nexo and Celsius you can earn up to 6-14% just by keeping your crypto, stablecoin or fiat on their site. + +While the saying "not your keys, not your coins" is true, these companies are insured and have never been hacked before. As far as I know, both of these sites have a daily payout system, and you can deposit and withdraw funds whenever you want to. + +If you choose this method, it might be worth splitting your investment between these sites in order to prepare for the worst and also to be able to claim offers and bonuses on both sites once available. + +# #5 - Coinbase Earn + +Not a "passive" method, but I felt like I should add this one to the list. Many of you are already familiar with the "It ain't much, but it's honest work" meme referring to Coinbase Earn, a program where you can earn a few coins by watching educational videos of certain cryptocurrencies and solving the quizzes that follow said videos. + +In my country, currently Graph, Compound, XLM, CELO, Band, and Maker are available through Coinbase Earn, and if you complete all of these crypto's quizzes, you can earn up to $30-$40. In crypto, of course. + +Compared to the previous methods, it truly ain't much, but it's honest work, and who knows how these coins will perform in the upcoming years. Worth a shot! + +&#x200B; + +**If you have any other suggestions or feel like sharing your experience on passive income and cryptocurrencies, feel free to do that! :)** + +&#x200B; + +*The above references are an opinion and are for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.* +I am pretty certain one of the main drivers behind cryptocurrencies was so that the financial system would be placed back into the hands of the ordinary person and not controlled and influenced by the top 1%. Why is it now ok that someone of the 1% can now be the influencer and spokesperson (and even manipulate devs) to do what they want with it? + +# There is something fundamentally wrong with present day crypto if this is the new norm. + +What happened to the anonymous - that now requires more identification than you would to open a bank account. + +What happened to the peer to peer - that now goes through middlemen exchanges who "own" your wallets. + +What happened to cypherpunks? The dreamers? The ones who want to change the world to make it better and especially the ones who believe in the technology and not looking to "buy" only because you think someone else will buy it from you for more than what you paid for it? + +We need to go back to the roots. It's time to awaken the sleepy cypherpunks from their slumber and give them back the ink they had once lost, so that they can form a new world. +I am currently a 19 year old Uni student who is having a hard time when is comes to finance. This hasn't really been an issue for me until I have realised that I am missing out on so much stuff normal 19 years olds do. + +Lately I have been feeling shitty because of this and wanting to make a change about my situation. As the title says, I am a 19 year old uni student who makes little money off online surveys. I'd say I make around $20 a week off surveys which is good for a cheap 6 pack on the weekend with the mates but that's about it. + +I recently applied for Centerlink youth allowance due to being a full-time Uni student but was instantly rejected due to my parents earning too much which is fair enough but at the same time it's not like my parents are loaded due too having many kids + one with special needs and a lot of other stuff which I wont go into detail about. + +Jobs are hard to find at the moment especially when you have no experience in the workforce. I am sending at least 15 resumes a week and haven't heard back from anyone in the past 2 months. + +I don't know what to do at this point, I am tired of missing out on meetups or going to places which my mates due to lack of money, feeling like i'm wasting my life away and feeling very shitty about myself because of it. + +What steps can I take to improve my financial situation? + +Thanks! + +Edit: Thank you so much for all the replies! I feel a lot better about my situation now have a good idea as to how I can overcome this situation. +Update: engaged, combined NW $260k, her income is $60k. Currently spend $4k per month between us. + +Update #2: worth mentioning my parents are worth 5-10M, but they are (thankfully) in great health and I expect they have 20-30 years left at least. + +I'm 26 and just accepted a job offer for $400k total comp in tech (Bay Area.) I feel proud of my career trajectory, but I recognize I was in the right place at the right time - being a competent cloud engineer in this market paved the way for me, but I'm just an ordinary dude. + +Now, I'm beginning to understand that I'm staring down the first recession (or worse) of my adult life. I don't have a clue what to expect. Here are some questions on my mind: + +I'd like to buy a home in 12-18 months based on the idea that housing will get cheaper. Is that realistic? What are reasonable expectations here re: ROI? + +Should I expect to make slower progress on my career ambitions till the market improves? I've roughly doubled my TC every 2 years since starting to work in 2014, and I don't know if this will remain viable, even in tech. + +For those further along on a similar path to mine, what do you wish you'd known at my age? + Hey, + +I recently completed a DCF Model to value Goldman Sachs. The valuation came out to 5.27/share, ridiculously low, and cannot be true. Looking back at the data, I can't really find the error. Can anyone look at the model and try to find the error? + +[https://github.com/shashwat73/Dow-30/tree/master/Dow%2030/Goldman](https://github.com/shashwat73/Dow-30/tree/master/Dow%2030/Goldman) + +Thanks +I am sorry if you are about to retire. +I am young, like quite young. I have at least 30 years of investing in front of me. Yet, now stocks are extremely expensive. It's an everything bubble. There are many great business I would like to buy, but they are all overvalued. My expected future returns are so much lower than the ones of someone who was born just 10 years before me. +I feel like it is a similar situation with houses: our parents and grandparents bought houses for cheap, and now houses are so expensive that many just pay rent to the current home owners. +But if the market crashes, and we enter in a long bear market, stocks will get cheaper and cheaper, no one will want to touch them. I can then accumulate great businesses at low prices, and I have enough time to reasonably expect the price to match the value of the stocks I own again in 20 or 30 years. +Am I selfish?. + +Edit: I am 80% invested, but most of my cash flow is into the future because I am young. I own 8 stocks which I believe are undervalued or fairly valued. +Citadel is registering hundreds of shell stock companies and trade them on NYSE and NASDAQ, each has similar $200M market cap, $10 share price, ownership structure, Cayman HQ, daily volume, and name is like tool-generated. This is speeding up in 2021. + +Ok so I had some fun with this cool full text search tool by SEC + +[https://www.sec.gov/edgar](https://www.sec.gov/edgar) + +<<EDIT: it appears there is a lot more digging to do before drawing any conclusions, so I encourage every ape to use that SEC tool and dig deeper>> + +It allows to scan all the filings for a certain phrase. I was doing some other searches but typed Citadel out of curiosity. So after a few searches I noticed that there are hundreds of filings of this type: + +SC 13G (Beneficial ownership report) + +for companies with similar names like Thimble Point Acquisition Corp, XXX XXX Acquisition Corp. and so on. + +Here's a sample filing [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001423053/000110465921066881/tm2116471d2\_sc13g.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001423053/000110465921066881/tm2116471d2_sc13g.htm) + +it discloses ownership structure which consists of Citadel Advisors, C Securities, other Citadels, Ken and some weird CALC IV LP. All of those which I opened are very similar, differ in number of shares, but the pattern is obvious. There are roughly 200 such filings between 1st March 2021 and today: + +[https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522Citadel%2520Advisors%2520LLC%2522&dateRange=custom&startdt=2021-03-01&enddt=2021-08-09&page=2](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=%2522Citadel%2520Advisors%2520LLC%2522&dateRange=custom&startdt=2021-03-01&enddt=2021-08-09&page=2) + +and since Jan 2020 it's around 400. + +screenshot: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ave5gliwn9g71.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=18be6d4b7283624790f309ce69e7a470cdb51733 + +but each of these companies has a ticker and is traded on NYSE or NASDAQ. Why? This is so obvious that they don't do anything (EDIT: they do, search for the filings of some of those companies, they own shares in various other companies), why would someone want to trade their stocks? Daily volume is around 10k shares. Let's get tickers from the screenshot above: FWAC, RKTA, LCAA. + +[https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rkta](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/rkta) + +[https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/fwac](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/fwac) + +[https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lcaa](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lcaa) + +This is absurd. In 2021 one can bot create 200 companies with 200M market cap and put them onto some biggest most prestigious stock exchanges? + +Can some more wrinkled ape help here? Why they are doing this? + +I read some DD back in Spring about registering shitload of SPACs to transfer funds on Cayman Islands, but why they are traded on stock market now? + +EDIT: i very roughly dug into reports filed to SEC which contain some of those names and they collectively own shares in other stock companies. It looks like an incredible opaque web of ownership structure. Some of other companies could probably have much less owners if we group Citadel-owned entitites into one. Digging deeper.. + +Ok so I refined the list from 2021, it's 78, I removed the duplicates and updated link below. Some can be falsely related to Citadel despite having Citadel Advisors in ownership filing, so always verify and double check. + +[https://pastebin.com/EdCNDbmR](https://pastebin.com/EdCNDbmR) + +With this list we can see how many of them intersect in ownership structure of other companies. I will do this, maybe today and post my research. + +Credit : U/wladeczeck4 + +Edit : Grammar +ELONPEG has been tearing up the chart, just about 2,500 holders but \~$9m cap with steady day over day growth, and of course STEADY BURN because Elon can’t help but tweet. This token was launched as a hedge against the tweets we’ve all come to love and hate with a super unique deflationary model: WE PEG ELON. + +WTF is Pegging??? In crypto, pegging a token is when you tie the value of one token somehow to events outside the blockchain. USDT is pegged to the US Dollar, WETH on BSC is pegged to ETH on Ethereum, etc. So here’s what we did: We pegged Elon. This means every time Elon tweets, our system of APIs and smart contracts AUTO-BURN supply, resulting in reflections for holders and mass amounts to burn. So far he’s burned through over $1.5m in ELONPEG with tweets, and you know he can’t stop! See what we mean here: imgur.com/a/cKxm4DE + +MASSIVE marketing every minute since launch between ads, influencers, had a great recorded voice AMA with the devs and will do plenty more to come, locked liquidity,just listed on CoinGecko, CMC still on the way, about 20 hours a day of founder interaction, and limitless potential with amazing tokenomics and automations! + +If you’d rather check out our site than hear me talk: elonpeg.com + +&#x200B; + +🔥 Tokenomics + +\- 9% tax on every transaction: 3% to holders, 3% to liquidity, 3% to marketing, events, and carbon offsetting. + +\- 1 Trillion total supply, 500Bn has been sent to the BurnUponTweeting contract, which we call the BURN VAULT. + +\- The Burn Upon Tweeting contract (which was audited along with the token) started with half the total supply. Every time Elon tweets, our APIs fire and call the ElonTweeted method which burns 0.5% of the burn vault supply. ELONPEG in the vault remains in circulation as long as Elon keeps tweeting due to the reflections generated. + +\- Further automations blast the message on our TG and Twitter, check out a recent one here! Every Elon tweet creates MAJOR HYPE as we watch the reflections roll in and the burn happen automatically. + +&#x200B; + +BurnUponTweeting was also extensively tested in Testnet. The process goes something like this: Elon Tweets are picked up within minutes, activating the vault code that burns the required amount, then stores the tweet ID in the burn tx record event logs, and then sends alerts to the Telegram channel and Twitter, fully automated, every time, within moments of tweeting. + +&#x200B; + +🪐 WEN MARKETING? + +We’ve got ads on PooCoin, multiple videos and posts up on Twitter, TikTok, and Insta, and a rotation of influencers worldwide ready to go. CoinGecko just listed. This project is still VERY young and primed for liftoff! + +On top of this, the devs are SUPER responsive and our TG chat is lively. Come on in, ask questions, share memes, get involved. We have our ShillX group earning ELONPEG with outreach and awareness campaigns. + +I haven’t been this hyped up in a long time, the economic model is new and unique, the integrations are automated and secure, this is a TRULY unique and innovative token that is going to blast off. + +&#x200B; + +Website: [elonpeg.com](https://elonpeg.com) + +Telegram: [t.me/elonpeg](https://t.me/elonpeg) + +Twitter: [twitter.com/elonpeg](https://twitter.com/elonpeg) + +Contract: 0xc18994df2dfd0c2767bb1758bae83e95762bbea3 + +BurnUponTweeting: 0xb016de73a65eef0c7d2f0a7bf236803e637e655d + +Pancake Swap: [exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xC18994df2Dfd0C2767bB1758bAe83e95762bBea3](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xC18994df2Dfd0C2767bB1758bAe83e95762bBea3) + +BSCScan Explorer: bscscan.com/token/0xc18994df2dfd0c2767bb1758bae83e95762bbea3 +There's a post on the front page right now referring to the cost of the war. + +It was $300 million per day + +Every day + +For the last twenty years. + +And that only makes $2 Trillion. + +The derivatives market is worth up to $2 Quadrillion. + +$40m is not a meme. +Seeing a whole lot of posts with the following themes: + +&#x200B; + +Is 1-5% a week realistic? + +What size portfolio do I need to retire and sell options full time? + +Should I sell options on XYX because IV is incredibly high? (up triple digits already but the future looks soo bright) + +&#x200B; + +These posts seem to point to incredibly high levels of confidence, bubbly sentiment and unhealthy levels of risk taking. There are traders with great gains and risk management. But the influx of new traders from the 2020 bottom are seriously scaring me. There is certainly a new market regime with active investing and risk taking, but this sub is being overrun by young traders who have yet to see a gut wrenching downdraft. These SPACs and high growth stocks could easily be marked down 50-75% in a mild correction. + +&#x200B; + +I will continue to sell OTM puts on quality stocks. (This naturally gives a margin of safety) However, I welcome a correction to cleanse sentiment and reduce overall levels of margin in the market. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Could not ask for a better sentiment survey. The responses are very interesting + +&#x200B; +I am hearing about the hype that is happening around the crypto market, so I have been watching videos, following news, and diving deeper into the crypto market. It is not as complicated as it seems to be honest, however not as easy as all these influencers make it seem. +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-15/under-armour-ceo-hammered-by-analyst-for-praising-donald-trump?utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets +Let's list down the mutual funds or your portfolio. +We will have a look into each other's portfolio , will be fun and helpful . + +Listing down mine : + +Mirae asset India equity ( now large cap). , + Kotal multicap fund , + , Sbi small cap fund , + ICICI nifty next 50 , + Absl tax relief 96 + + +Debt and emergency: +Absl liquid , + Hdfc ultra short term + + +Also mention your rationale behind selecting the funds and goals attached if any . +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +35 M wife is 34 + +I have two daughters 8 & 5 and a son who is 1. We just hit 1 mil invested net worth this year with no debt and very comfortable expenses of around $70k not including taxes. + + +We currently save & invest roughly 2x our expenses every year. By conservative math half of typical returns for the next 15 years we will be we more than safe to retire by 50 with well over 35x expenses saved not including my pension or our SSA benefits. (These by themselves would cover nearly our entire expenses starting at 62) + +Neither one of us hate our Jobs, my wife's is a more high pay high stress style job than mine but it's also one she can do from her home office. But, neither one of us "loves" our job. We prescribe to the idea you work to live not live to work. + +All that was just some background to let everyone know we will be "able" to retire at 50 very comfortably and probably could retire at 45 with out issues. + + + + +The problem is that I keep running into is that in 10 years, our kids will be 18, 15, 11. And in 15 years our kids will be 23, 20 , and 16. + + +Has anyone retired with teenagers that could give some advice? + +My kids are great 0 problems life wonderful. I would retire now with them if I could. + +But, once kids get into their highschool years they won't be little kids anymore that I could just pick up and spend months away on trips or would I imagine be thrilled having mom and dad home all the time. + +Likewise they won't quite be old enough to just have them housesit when we go on some grand long trips. + +Also, while we do talk financial stuff with our 8 year old how healthy is it for kids to see their parents retired before they even go to college? + + + +Right now I am thinking of waiting until I am 52 and my youngest is 18 before retirement, but even then I am torn. I will have been working nearly a decade longer than I needed to and at the same time my son still will not have even started college. I know it is a first world problem. But I figured there have got to be some people in my situation here. + + +The other option would be to retire in my early 40's and get extra time with my kids as kids, but I certainly wouldn't have the retired on the beach life possible with working ±5 more years. Wife is not a fan of the risk of not having enough to help our kids later on in life if needed. + + + +What have the people here who have multiple kids done and what works and what doesn't? + + + + +Edit: just to add My dad retired pretty early even though it was before FIRE was a thing. He retired at 55 and it was great. It has been what started motivating me to want to retire early. 55 was the original goal then 50. + +Now it is looking like 45 would be possible and I just don't know if retiring too young would make this change from an inspiration like it was to me. To a possible detriment of my teenagers not seeing their parents working and expecting life just to be easy. And not understanding the hard work and savings that we have done for the past 13 years. + + + +Edit part deux: +We are not the typical FIRE couple who are working ourselves to the bone burning the candle at both ends. +My job is hard and sometimes physically demanding but it is usually enjoyable and a 15 min drive from my house. +My wife's job is not fun and high stress, but it is a work from home job that literally let's her work in her pajamas. Even pre-covid. +Hello fellow apes, + +Greetings from Germany. As a europoor ape I use IBKR for DRSing my shares. I so did over the past 3 months, sending shares to IBKR from various brokers. + +If you are not familiar with the europoor stonk exchanges, we largely trade GME under a different ticker - GS2C. For DRSing you need to exchange shares of GS2C for GME first. + +Apparently, IBKR did a mistake when I transfered one of many positions FROM one of my brokers. 143 shares pre-split. That mistake resulted in them putting the position twice onto my account. They just added 286 shares. + +Well, nice surprise, you may say. But I did not even notice. You see, I became a father 3 months ago and I was quite occupied with my twin girls, my family moving to a new place and the rest of my life. So, I remained unaware of the larger position. + +However, what I did was is to DRS my whole position. I left not a single share on IBKR. + +So, long story short, this morning I got a call from them telling me about the mistake and that they now opened a short position of 572 shares post split for me. + +Well, I get their logic, they provided me with shares I did not own or buy. However, what I don't get is that they can just expose me to this kind of risk based on a mistake they did. My new short position is now already minus 500 €. WTH? + +So, what would you do? Comments appreciated. + +Edit 1: +Thank you for all the helpful comments. I am now quite sure the mistake was more on my side than initially thought. Even though I think there could have been different ways than opening a short position by IBRK. I will now send back the respective shares from CS to close the short position. +[RIDE - Lordstown Motors Gets New Order for 14,000 Pickups](https://businessjournaldaily.com/e-squared-looks-to-purchase-14000-endurance-pickups-from-lordstown-motors/) +>**Net loss:** $1.01 billion, vs. $1.01 billion estimated, according to Refinitv + +>**Revenue:** $3.10 billion, vs. $3.04 billion estimated, according to Refinitiv + +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/30/uber-earnings-q1-2019.html +Saw a couple of people immediately getting burned by jumping into LKE this morning and being down 10% wondering "Am I retarded?" Short answer yes, long answer still yes, but it will all be alright. + +Firstly, addressing the spike in price and profit taking, this is NORMAL. Remember there are a fuck load of people holding this stock from the single digits. These people don't need to wait a year to get big fucking bags of cash, they can get it now. This process of taking the profits after a news story is not only expected but healthy, as it pads out millions of shares, at this point over 12million, at holding above 42c. Now while some of these people are short a chromosome and will likely panic and sell as it dips off the spike, most of them will hold, pushing the average price of the share higher and giving us new ground. + +Secondly, this IS NOT our moon moment, this was mostly priced in for starters, there was very little doubt it would be anything but good news, even Stephan Prominitz said in his interviews that he did not expect this to move the price. This is a great achievement, and a really good indicator towards the future, but it's not an announcement that adds value to the company, they're coming later this year. This report is the first results of a year long process that forms the DFS, the NVX tests will continue for a few months and we will likely see some more results that have more concrete implications. + +Thirdly, what are we waiting for? A FUCK LOAD. The things that really matter are in the pipe line, off take agreements, partnerships and construction debt financing. These are all things that are locked and loaded for release this year, I encourage anyone interested to go back and look at some of my previous posts with interviews. You can also expect some captial raises which will bash our heads in a bit, but again, this is all normal. + +Lastly, to the guys who cashed out this morning, well done, don't let anyone shame you for taking profits, congratulations and fuck you, to the new holders who bought at the new ATH, thank you, without retards like you we couldn't keep growing. To everyone wondering if they should fomo in and what price to look for, 40c will probably be our new float around, high 30s to low 40s is a fantastic entry at this point in time. + +Disclosure, currently holding, no intention of selling this year. Sell target is 3.50$ average buy in is 22c. DYOR. + +Good luck everyone ✋💎🔋 +In the world of personal finance, I often encounter people talking about that daily trip to Starbuck's, to buy that $5 cup of coffee as an example of an easy overindulgence to cut. And it's totally true--if you're spending $5 on a cup of coffee every single day, that's $35 a week, or like $150 a month. For a lot of us a $150 monthly bill would easily be in the top ten recurring expenses, if not higher. And sure, that's an easy thing to cut out if we're trying to slim down, right? + +All totally correct. However, I think we can sometimes get a little too overzealous in our drive to frugality. To me, the point of managing your expenses on a daily basis isn't simply to get them as low as possible, but to actually think about what's important to you and what's worth it. The point of managing your money is to figure out what you care about, and what you can afford, and to be able to allow yourself to do the things you want to do without stressing about whether you'll be crushed under a mountain of debt if you do. + +Personally, I love going to coffee shops. I love chit chatting with the barrista while they make my coffee. I love getting out of the house, I love reading the paper or surfing the web while I sip coffee that someone else has made for me in an environment that's carefully curated to be beautiful and welcoming. That's easily worth $5 a day to me. + +The overall point being: when it comes to your daily budget, I don't think there's ever a one-size-fits-all rule. It's more about what's important to you in life, and what tradeoffs you're willing to accept. + +Now, I'm gonna go head out to a coffee shop for a little bit. +So from what I remember reading. Before the 2008 crash, all the business was done over the weekend and then on the following Monday. Everything was set to be destroyed. + +Does anyone remember what exactly happened that weekend? Was there any news that the general populace would have picked up on? + +There’s new headlines every day about shady shite going on and I’m just wondering after this long weekend if there’s anything apes would see that was similar to the weekend before the ‘08 crash. + +HYPE everyday! + +Edit: holy crap. This got big +Loving the discussions! Some wrinkles sneaking around here me thinks. (Not me) +Hi all, I am retired and want to develop a dividend income stream to add a little something extra to what I will receive from social security. + +What mix of funds do you recommend? JEPI, XYLD, SCHD are some I see often.. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Hi everyone, hope you're doing well. + +First of all - sorry if you've read this title and thought "aw piss off". This really isn't intended to be a boastful post, I'm just wanting some advice on how to better manage/set up what might become an unexpected business. + +I've been making YouTube videos since 2008 and this past month I have finally had my 15-minutes of fame. I don't know how long it will last, but there seems to be a lot of interest in the videos I'm making because as a collective, they received 20 million views this month. I'll be paid for those views next month. + +On the off-chance that this streak of luck does continue, I was wondering what the best way forward is as I'm currently just a sole trader splitting the profits 50/50 with my brother (who I run the channel with). I'm assuming this is not the most savvy or tax efficient way to proceed. + +I was therefore wondering, should I start a limited company and is this hard to do? I looked into it and got quite overwhelmed. I was going to ask my accountant about this, but they're currently very busy with tax returns. + +My financial goals (right now) and the way we run this channel are quite simple. We pay other people to write scripts and edit the videos, then pay ourselves whatever is left over. I have a mortgage of £100,000 that I'd like to pay off (I know that over payment would return more invested, but I'm prioritizing the peace of mind from owning my house outright). + +I don't really know what else to share. If you have any advice I would really appreciate it and if you have any questions, I'd be happy to answer them. + +Thank you! + +edit - sorry for the delay in responding to comments... forgot the password for this throwaway! Really appreciate all the helpful and largely positive responses. +If my boss could be let go, so could I, so it suddenly seemed important to take a hard look at my FIRE numbers. + +I am still about 4 years away from my FIRE number, but I could Barista Fire with what I have now with my side gigs. If it wasn't for the cost of health insurance for me and the kids, I could probably Lean Fire right now. + +So I was reassured. + +But my boss was both anguished (which I would have been too) and terrified, which makes me think there are no savings or investments to fall back on. + +Even though I am not FIRE, just being on the path to FIRE and having a bunch of that stuff already figured out is very comforting when you are helping someone who got fired carry boxes out to their car. +Did I miss something? Isn't this the most important vote in the history of GameStop shareholders? Are we supposed to believe that this vote will pass anyway? + +Last year we rallied and even had eToro come forward to allow us to vote, but this time nothing but crickets. Absolute silence. I voted through Computershare but still have some shares in DeGiro and eToro and I want to vote with those as well. + +Let's rally, apes. This is the most important vote yet. This is the vote for MOASS. Make yourself heard! **Vote! And get your broker to allow voting!** + +Edit: **I am talking about eToro, DeGiro, Fidelity and literally every other broker that does NOT allow voting. The majority of shareholders is unable to vote themselves. And the majority decides. The most important vote in the history of apes and everybody's like: yeah, we voted, nothing to be worried about.** +So, you made enough money, and now you don't have to work anymore. What gives your life meaning now? Work is good at stealing hours of your life and energy, so many of us don't have time to think of existential things. But without such drain, what is driving you, what makes you tick, what gives your life meaning and joy, sense of accomplishment? Sure RE is not the last accomplishment you want to have in your life +In an attempt to win Free Crypto by participating in [This Promotion](https://www.bk.com/crypto), I ate burger king for 21 days straight so you didn't have to. + +You can't win if you don't play, Reddit. Here's how it went: + +Day 1 - 8pc Ghost Pepper Nugs, Cheeseburger, Hershey's Sundae Pie - Total = $5.45 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 2 - 8pc Nugget(they were out of Ghost Pepper), Small Onion Ring, Hershey's Pie(these are dangerous) - Total = $6.31 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 3 - 8pc Ghost Pepper Nugs, Rodeo Burger, Hershey's Pie, ordered delivery today - Total = $13.74 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 4 - This was a weird one. I actually tried to order delivery through the app, and the order failed because my nearest store was currently closed/not accepting orders. Still got the reward email and claimed it. Total = $0 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 5 - Rodeo Burger, 3x Applesauce, lol really was not feeling BK today. - Total = $5.88 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 6 - Ch'King Deluxe Sandwich - Total = $5.90 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 7 - Ch'King Sandwich, Hershey's Pie - Total = $7.51 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 8 - Impossible Whopper - Total = $6.98 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 9 - 2 Hershey's Pies for delivery lol - Total = $12.63 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 10 - Sausage, Egg, & Cheese Biscuit, Med Hash Browns - Total = $6.00 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 11 - Rodeo Burger, Med Fry, Hershey's Pie - Total = $5.78 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 12 - Big Fish Sandwich, Impossible Whopper, Hershey's Pie (roommate wanted food too) - Total = $14.38 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 13 - Ch'King Sandwich, Hershey's Pie - Total = $7.51 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 14 - 8pc Ghost Pepper Nugs, Double Cheeseburger, Hershey's Pie - Total = $6.31 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 15 - Med Fry, Rodeo Burger, 4pc Ghost Pepper Nugs, Hershey's Pie - Total = $7.17 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 16 - Ch'King Sandwich, Hershey's Pie - Total = $7.51 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 17 - 3x Hershey's Pie (I'm so sick of Burger King lol) - Total = $6.42 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 18 - 2x 8pc Nugs, Lg Fry - Total = $6.10 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 19 - Ch'King Deluxe Sandwich - Total = $5.90 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 20 - 8pc Ghost Pepper Nugs, Medium Fry, 3x Hershey's Pies(roommates wanted some lol) - Total = $10.59 - **1 DOGE** + +Day 21 - Bacon Cheeseburger, Small Onion Ring, Hershey's Pie - Total = $6.85 - **1 DOGE** + +**Results:** + +Total Spent = $154.92 + +Total Earned = You guessed it! **21 bright shiny Dogecoins**. = **$4.81** (at time of posting) + +[much wow](https://preview.redd.it/001anktlzz081.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f52739a88140d6a3a797334f4998e39603c01030) + +I won't be eating Burger King, or likely any fast food for a *long* time. + +Edit: Many people seem to be oblivious to the fact that there was a chance to win BTC and ETH as well. I wasn't just eating Burger King for one guaranteed DOGE every day. +This takes forward the argument of an earlier [thread](http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/c3hzt/greece_must_leave_the_euro_people_are_not_seeing/), which essentially said that Greece cannot grow within the EMU. It must default/restructure and re-issue the drachma. Saying, "Oh, too difficult!" is not good enough. The costs of exit are vastly outweighed by the costs of staying on the euro. Crying, "But the markets will never lend to Greece again!" is also rubbish. Markets have a short-term memory, and in fact Greece as a sovereign borrower will be *more* attractive post-default (because of a lighter debt load). A good example in recent memory is Argentina. When the situation turned adverse (Asia crisis, 1997), everyone told it to keep to the currency board (i.e. 1-for-1 peg to USD). It did so for four painful years, suffering contracting GDP. Finally, at end-2001, it devalued and defaulted. Growth rocketed to 7.5% and stayed there till the recent global downturn. + +Another precedent for the Greek tragedy is the Great Depression. The point of my original thread was that the medicine being prescribed during the Depression was austerity. And countries took it to varying degrees. What I want to do now is lay out the pathways from this point forward, if we take 1931 as a precedent. + +Why 1931? Because the fit is uncanny. The global business cycle peaked in 1928, three years before 1931. Likewise, the cyclical peak this time was three years ago: 2007. As the cycle turns down, the weakest links start to go 'pop'. This time, Dubai comes to mind, but I'm sure I'm overlooking some others. In the 1929+ downturn, it was the agricultural exporters: Australia, Argentina, and others in Latin America. But it didn't end there. The crisis moved closer to the 'core' of the world economy, with the common denominator being net debtor status. This is where continental Europe came into the firing line, and it is where Club Med enters today. + +(I AM SKIPPING OVER VAST SWATHES OF THE STORY, YES. These might be worth coming back to later.) + +At May 1931 the world stood on the precipice. By the end of the year, the global economy had taken the key steps toward splitting into three distinct groups. The choices were: + +* stay the course (keep on the gold standard, but with tariffs) +* retreat to autarky (government authorisation for any trade transaction) +* devalue (introduce tariffs but still remain part of the open world trade system) + +Those who chose the first option were the ones who could *afford* to. They were net creditors and were basically quite competitive at the exchange rates prevailing on the cusp of the Great Depression. This was France, Netherlands, Switzerland and a few others, and was known as the 'gold bloc'. + +The ones which suffered the biggest political upheavals in the course of austerity (Germany, Hungary, and others) chose the autarky path. They were also net debtors and imposed capital controls in part to marshal all available foreign exchange for the repayment of sovereign debt. + +The rest -- a mixture of creditors and debtors -- left the gold standard, which means they devalued. The defaults were mostly of the form of paying you back in a depreciated currency, rather than violating the coupon or principle or schedule. + +* Group 3 performed the best during the rest of the decade. Group 1 performed the worst -- their currency was increasingly overvalued with time and their economies uncompetitive. Germany (in Group 2) grew strongly. What Group 2 and 3 had in common was leaving the gold standard; Group 3 stayed plugged into the world economy, Group 2 unplugged. +* If this story is anything to go by, Club Med are not going to follow the gold bloc route. They can't afford it. Only Germany and Northern Europe can do that. And they well might, which is bad news for them and for us. Club Med and the Eastern accession members of the EU have to choose between the Autarky and Tariff routes. +* The devaluations during the Great Depression were an aid to growth. However, what really got the global economy going again was the USA devaluation 1933 and resolute German expansion (also 1933). The Gold Bloc finally joined the party with devaluations in 1935-36, but too tentatively and anyway too late: The US again staged a horrific downturn, when Congress tightened the fiscal position by 2.5 percentage points of GDP, the Fed twice increased the reserve ratio, and the Treasury sterilised gold inflows. +* Interestingly: the countries which had devalued around 1931 (some earlier, some later) had by this time (1937) built up such huge reserves that they could ride out the US recession by spending down those reserves -- no resort to austerity (and almost no devaluations). + +EDIT: +Just a quick caution against hysteria. Yes, the issue is important. But the point is to wake people up to (what I see as) the "right" course of action. I do not subscribe to any kind of fatalism about history. What I want is for the EU to do the right thing, which is to help Greece and any other incongruous members of EMU to leave the monetary union, but stay in the EU. I want debt forgiveness instead of moral grandstanding. People accusing Greeks of being lazy/corrupt/freespending might be living in glass houses. The country was treated to the mother of all credit booms. And guess what: politicians rode that boom like there was no tomorrow. Of course it was a house of cards. Can you think of any other credit booms which were exploited by politicians? +Being that PLTR has gone full blown meme stock, I thought this flair would apply nicely. + +I bought my first 100 PLTR shares at 21.40 and sold a CC on it for $2.20 premium $26 strike 12/24. It completely blew past that lol. Max profit = $680. Nothing to shake my head at. + +Just bought my second 100 shares at 26.50 and sold a $31 strike 12/24 expiry for $3.10 premium. Max profit = $760. + +I can already hear the chads telling me if I just bought and held shares or options I’d be to the moon at this point. Thankfully I’m content with my anxiety mitigating CC strategy. + +Anyone else playing PLTR? Thoughts? +I live in Los Angeles, and I always hear stories about artists and hippies living in areas that now only upper class and upper middle class working professionals can afford. Why wasn't the city able to maintain an affordable cost of living over the last couple decades? +I'm well aware of subprime mortgages . I know that many mortgages were given to people who were extreme risks. My question is though, did those people just start defaulting for no other reason than having questionable finances or was there some other catalyst that made subprime borrowers all start defaulting at around the same time? Basically, was there already a small recession starting that was exacerbated by people defaulting on their mortgages or was the defaulting the major cause of the recession? + +&#x200B; + +This defaulting, in turn, caused the collapse of many investment banks because they held CDOs backed by MBSs, correct? Because of the crisis, investors perceived the Icelandic banks to be increasingly risky which led to the major crisis in Iceland? Why did American investment banks failing lead people to lose confidence in Icelandic banks? What are the specific reasons? Thanks +Hello! Recently had a tenant move out that had two kids that did a bunch of damage to many of the walls. She had a handyman fix and patch the holes, but the entire unit needs to be painted because of it. + +We are unsure whether this is something we should be docking the security deposit for. I’ve heard before that some landlords repaint every time a tenant moves out and some don’t if it’s still in great condition. + +Is this considered normal wear and tear and give the tenant their full security deposit back? Or should we dock them for the costs we’ll have to incur? Below are a few pictures + +Edit: tenants were there for 22 months. Higher end unit in a nice area. There are 5-7 walls that look similar. Because it’s so excessive we have to paint the entire unit basically. Not just a few walls. I assume it’ll take $1,000+ in paint and 50-80 man hours. + +[Pictures of interior](https://imgur.com/a/bctQ3r0) +# [Youtube Link](https://youtu.be/YwD3ughlZYc) + +Nomi Prins is a geopolitical financial expert and investigative journalist who sheds light on the dark corners of the global economy. + +She quit her job on Wall St to become a journalist and a bit of a whistle-blower. She was a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, and worked as a strategist at Lehman Brothers and analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. + +She became an investigative reporter to clarify the methods by which monetary systems (like the central banks/Federal reserve) are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expenditure of everybody else. + +[https://nomiprins.com/](https://nomiprins.com/) + +[https://twitter.com/nomiprins](https://twitter.com/nomiprins) + +As with all of our guests, she was really impressed by the community's questions, so thank you to anyone who left a well thought-out question on the question thread. +**My Original POPCORN Thesis In A Nutshell:** + +During the insanity of the early 2021 frenzy, GME was trading much higher than POPCORN during a crucial period of FOMO. This meant that many new investors (like myself) were more comfortable YOLO'ing into POPCORN. This was due to the perception that "POPCORN had more room to squeeze". Whether this is true or not doesn't matter. What matters was the public perception. For many novice investors, POPCORN simply seemed like the better "deal". Millions and millions of investors piled into POPCORN. I, myself, had xxxx shares at a point, and only about 20 GME. Whether POPCORN was the better play didn't matter. What mattered to me was the massive influx of investors into POPCORN. To discount that fact is to take a biased view of the situation. + +I STILL BELIEVE POPCORN AND GME ARE INEXTRICABLY LINKED DUE TO MANIPULATION AND RETAIL YOLO'ING, BUT TO A POINT. + +**What My Instinct Is Telling Me Now:** + +CEO's, FUNDAMENTALS, AND STOCK DILUTION MATTER. As Mark Cuban put it, and I'm paraphrasing "The only way the shorts win is if the company goes bankrupt, or retailers sell their shares.". Over the course of the past 8 months or so, as I've educated myself (thanks to wrinkle-brained apes), I've come to believe that GameStop is about to cause a SEISMIC shockwave through three worlds: + +1. **CRYPTO/NFT/BLOCKCHAIN** +2. **ECOMMMERCE** +3. **FINANCIAL MARKETS** + +Although currently based on conjecture and speculation, the tea leaves that we ARE able to read are pointing to something huge coming down the pipe. They've poached top talent from companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google—while reeling in heavyweights in the blockchain space. How has "dying brick and mortar" been able to do this, in a time when those other companies are CRUSHING it? + +There can only be one answer in my opinion: GameStop is promising these people an opportunity to be part of a revolution of sorts. A David v Goliath story. They're promising this talent that they'll get a front row seat on one of the wildest rides in human history. + +**THE FACT IS, GameStop Execs (not selling massive amounts of shares) AND the talent they're able to acquire, ALL BELIEVE IN THE FUTURE of this company.** + +That means that GAMESTOP IS NOT ONLY **NOT** going out of business.—but they are going to be one of the powerhouses of the next decade and beyond. That also means that the hundreds of millions (if not billions) of naked shorts WILL need to be bought back. + +**I BELIEVE IN THE GME APES, GameStop, and RC TO LAND THE KNOCKOUT BLOW THAT DROPS HEDGIES TO THE CANVAS.** +As the title says i’m 19 and have some extra money set aside from a summer job, I want to start investing it into something like a roth ira but don’t know if it would be smart. I am also a university student who will have student loans to pay off out of college. +# FIND THE DRS POST HERE: [Complete Guide to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) + +Ok. For what I imagine will not be the final time, let's recap the DRS/Pin issue. + +For the past several months, the [Complete Guide to Computershare (AKA DRS)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) post has been a semi-permanent fixture in this sub and has occupied one of those two pins more than 75% of the time (I'm being conservative with my estimate). + +Mods are allowed 2 pinned posts. We'd love 3. But Reddit allows only 2. + +We replace it only *temporarily* when there's something like a rule change, an important announcement, or, in the most recent instance, an AMA that we'd spent weeks working on. + +So, 75% or more of the time, when you come to Superstonk and look at its front page, you will be greeted by one of the top two posts being this one: + +[The DRS post](https://preview.redd.it/c82ay8djhf581.jpg?width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb936d450d893a3a67dcb67c274076178cc1d54b) + +This is the pin that takes you to the [Complete Guide to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) \- a post that has been live 24/7 for at least 3 months. This is just a pin... like a shortcut. The content it links to - the [Complete Guide to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) by [u/Doom\_Douche](https://www.reddit.com/u/Doom_Douche/) is ALWAYS available even if it's not pinned. + +If you want to refer to it later during the few instances per week that it might not be pinned up top, you can bookmark it, or even save it through Reddit. The post is *never* gone, we are just temporarily using the real estate on the front page for something other than a link to the post. + +Furthermore, whenever we take it down, we are sensitive to make sure that the FIRST SENTENCE of any post replacing it contains a link to it. Here are some examples: + +[From the Rule 7 Update](https://preview.redd.it/5r9s34pkhf581.jpg?width=693&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4aca6f0ddc5f1b37c2cdb745c34941becf17b7bd) + +&#x200B; + +[From the NFT Roundtable](https://preview.redd.it/xh7jva6mhf581.jpg?width=1056&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a526d98b070bee40df5baea9b2b15f7d15ee92bb) + +&#x200B; + +Additionally, the top pinned comment in EVERY NEW POST is from "QualityVote." This top comment contains this link: [What is DRS and why should you care?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) This link also takes you to the DRS guide. + +[QualityVote](https://preview.redd.it/zp374jquhf581.jpg?width=1082&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0912a02c1a5c61778b30fdf708b7265c868655a9) + +Last, but not least, if you're a mobile user or a desktop user of new Reddit, simply look (or swipe to) the right. On the right-hand side of the page (or with a solid swipe right on mobile), you'll see this section, which contains permanent links to all the most important things going on, and the DRS post is ALWAYS there. + +[Community Posts](https://preview.redd.it/35gla02xhf581.jpg?width=328&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7723c0bb9cf580a34034472db4ee66a57569ee7b) + +We've worked very hard as a team to make this guide accessible and easy to find. And now, hopefully, you have a few more resources to check next time it happens to be down for a few hours while we make sure we're communicating other important information. + +At this point, you should be able to feel confident in a backup plan for the few times a week that this post isn't pinned up top. + +If, after this explanation, your takeaway is that you're still upset that there will be brief interruptions to the DRS link being pinned up top, here's a suggestion for how to help instead of posting about your discontent: direct ***all*** your energy towards Reddit so that we can have more than 2 pins. Not only would it solve the problem, but it would also be a much more productive use of our collective energy. 700k+ members all clamoring for a third pin might make it happen. Just be professional about it, please. + +[Pretty much sums it up](https://preview.redd.it/crno5z8yhf581.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba698941d74ac6428442c56ad5ea21db8e55220f) + +Credit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rewfbu/at\_this\_point\_youre\_just\_complaining\_to\_complain/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rewfbu/at_this_point_youre_just_complaining_to_complain/) by [u/semerien](https://www.reddit.com/user/semerien/) + +&#x200B; + +**TA;DR: Seems like people are looking for the DRS Guide in all the wrong places. Here are a few places to look from now on.** + +**DRS post is available in the following places:** + +**-Pinned at the front page of Superstonk as MUCH AS IS POSSIBLE** + +**-In any pinned post that replaces it as the first sentence** + +**-In** ***every*** **new post, the first comment under "quality vote"** + +**-On the right-hand column of both desktop and mobile, under "Important Community Posts"** + +\- The Mod Team 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +How do you or have you handled donation requests from people you sort of know? + +As a business owner and fatfire guy I feel like a walking target for golf tournament sponsorships, donations to this that and the other. Additionally friends that really know us realize we aren’t just a small time Mom and Pop shop so that amplifies it even further. + +What are some strategies you have used? My own brother asks every year for one or two things and he must think I am a jerk when I don’t want to play in his $300 golf tournament for his church. +HCOL HENRY, earning $500k-1m per year, single no kids + +Anyone have an experience they’re willing to share of putting your money to work in a way that created work for a trusted family member? So long as the ROI is non-negative, the priority would be creating a decent full time or part time job for a laid off family member over the next 1yr+. + +Managing rental properties seems like an obvious answer, but we’re both in the Bay Area where the economics of buying a rental property just don’t make sense. +Radio Shack is gone +Frys Electronics is gone +Micro Center locations are sparse + +The only option for many people is to order online. I would much rather place my order through GameStop, or swing by my local store, to pick up some hobby electronics items. Call me old-fashioned, but being able to run down to the closest strip-mall to buy a replacement motor for a project, or grab some resistors for my arduino/Raspberry Pi projects. + +There is a market, and I think it fits very well with the GameStop model that leadership is establishing. +Hey everyone, long timer lurker here but I thought I would make my first post on breaking down the data on a duplex I'm thinking about getting. I've read a couple books and taken a lot of notes from lectures on Bigger Pockets but wanted to challenge some assumption I've made on here. + +The price of the Duplex is $400,000. + +Both units are around 1250 square feet with the first one renting for $1550 and the second one renting for $1350. + +The $1550 unit has been fully remodeled and does not have a tenant currently while the second one has a tenant who has been there for a couple years and would like to stay. + +This is a gross of 34,800 with my mortgage payment (including home insurance and taxes) at around $23,600 a year ($1968 a month). I'm assuming around 7% off the top for vacancy and then around $2400 ($200 a month) for small repairs, large repairs, and maintenance. + +With all this combined I have a cash-on-cash rate of around 10% with the 1% rule falling at around 0.85%. + +My real question is if you guys think my assumptions are relatively accurate, how I could improve my assumptions, and if this seems like a worthwhile investment. + +P.S. this sub has been really awesome and I hope I get to the level where I can also contribute back! +Fellow autists. Today, I place my life in the hands of the almighty market. Behold, [$780k thrown into 450 6/19 SPX 1500P](https://imgur.com/a/86ipHjS). + +It pains me to say this, but I have the utmost confidence that this virus and the economic crisis arising from it will bring America to the brink of collapse. I believe this thesis so strongly that I'm willing to lay down everything to pursue it. + +To all the bears in this sub, who have valiantly held their puts with iron resolve, I say this: don't doubt your vibe. + +To all the bulls in this sub, I say: may God have mercy on your soul. +My husband and I are in our early thirties. Neither of us completed high school; we both have GEDs. We both come from very financially and emotionally unstable backgrounds. We have a lot of reasons/excuses to fail in life. And we did, for a while. + +Then we found plumbing. My husband went through his apprenticeship first while I financially held down the fort (driving 18 wheelers, which is a great short term way to earn a good amount of money). He still made between $12-15/hr throughout his two year apprenticeship, which is a lot better than no dollars per hour, and now he is paid commission and nets about $60/k year. That is low for this company and he will make more as he gains confidence and experience. + +I have now decided to follow in his footsteps and got lucky with a $15/hr position as a completely green apprentice. As a female, it was VERY hard to break in with no previous labor experience, but I found a female-owned company that gave me a shot. I'm 3 months in, 21 to go for my Tradesman license. + +So, for now, we have a combined net income of about $85k/year, and no debt of any kind. Within two years, that income should rise to $120-$150k very realistically. More is entirely possible as half the plumbers at the company we both currently work for bring home $90k or more. Also, this is for service (residential) plumbing, not commercial or union. You can make great money in both of those arenas as well (especially union if you're in a good state for it). + +I think that most states do not have a Tradesman license, so in that case, your apprenticeship would be 4 years to get your Journeyman. I still think it would be well worth it for a lot of people. + +I just thought I would make a post giving some people a first-hand, real world example of making it without a college degree or any student loan debt. And the job prospects are fantastic. There are no plumbers in my city that look for a job for more than a few days... and they have multiple offers to choose from. The fact is that there are not enough plumbers to go around, and that is true of a lot of trades. The job growth in plumbing over the next 20 years is double the national average. + +Unless you are disabled, there are no excuses. And yes, ladies, you can do it, too. I do. I'm 5'1" and weigh 118 lbs and I do it. I have trouble helping lift water heaters into and out of attics, and the company tries to keep me off water heaters when possible, but I still do it. Yes, it will be harder. But no one ever got anywhere by whining about fairness or difficulty. + +&#x200B; + +I will try to answer questions if there are any. +Hey Traders, + +I was just wondering if anybody feels the same. + +It is extremely to be rational prior to trading or even trading with Demo accounts. Before you start trading in a real live account you start to put rules into place and have a specific strategy. But when it comes to trading live how does one become extremely discipline and stick to ones plan constantly with out changing the course. + +I find that when I stick to a plan I become pretty consistent, but I recently blew my account twice, it wasn't much only approx 0.11% of my net worth... At times I feel delusional when I am on a roll till there's no more roll. The reason for blowing my account is due to my greed, doubling/tripling my usual leverage, making a lot of stupid call options and chasing my losses hence loosing. I am not saddened but just disappointed in my own psychology which is contradicting and being a huge hypocrite... + +It's easier to be Jack Bogle than Day Trader.... + +\*\*Update + +I appreciate all the replies. Most of my losses were from last night trying to swing trade AUD/USD using Binary Call Options. 3 continuous losses blew my account as I had deposited additional money on the 2nd and 3rd trade consecutive loss. I was on a roll as I thought this was to easy. 1 correct Binary Call Option is equivalent to approx 100+ trades as the pay out is 85%. I used to also have a gambling addiction in the past which would of contributed to me risking money using these products. + +I am now evaluating my decision but I think it's probably one of the best thing that has happened as I can further learn from this mistake. Every trade is making me stronger but I still need to focus on my psychology and not correlate it to a form of gambling but as a business. +For those of us who pursue FIRE in order to escape unfulfilling work and arbitrary bosses, there’s a always a tension between the urge to independence and the need to keep adding cash to the pile. An oppressive workplace can drive us to retire, but retire too early and we lack financial security. + +I manage this tension by being a shirker (someone who tries to avoid responsibilities) at work. I’m a shirker because I believe my job is bullshit (see my [earlier post](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/il3n5l/fire_and_bullshit_jobs/)) and I resent the lack of autonomy in the workplace. I’ve also largely given up hope of ever finding meaningful work. One day in the hopefully not too distant future I hope to quit my day job but for now it continues to be an important and reliable source of cashflow (almost half of my family’s increase in net worth last year). + +In the meantime shirking at work is a way for me to avoid burnout in the job by (1) pilfering as much time and as many resources from work as possible, and (2) undermining in my small way the managerial ideology that I detest. I now think of my work as if I was running a business, and the business is a cash cow with low overheads and requires little investment. + +Since I started consciously shirking it’s become a great source of enjoyment and I no longer feel the same sense of powerlessness at work that I used to. I’m continuously pushing the bounds of productivity to get through my work as quickly as possible. And I play a hide-and-seek kabuki act with my managers to keep the workload as low as possible. The work hours diverted to personal goals also reduces time stressing about work-related minutiae. Ironically, since becoming a shirker I believe I receive more respect and recognition from the higher-ups. + +**How to be a shirker** + +* Understand the nature of the modern workplace and the real purpose of your job. I’ve found that in most jobs only 40% is in the formal job description. The remaining 60% might be to fulfil a regulatory requirement or to boost your department head’s power within the organization. + +* Do your work as quickly and with as little effort as possible by taking the route of least resistance on work tasks. Sometimes I’ll even leave obvious oversights that managers will be happy to catch. I’m also not above recycling my own past work and that of others. + +* Always appear busy. Maintain a full email calendar and never respond too quickly to queries. Ideally work for multiple bosses so that you can make each believe you’re busy with the other one’s work. And in my experience the best boss is a dumb boss, one who won’t be too demanding because he or she doesn’t know what’s going on. + +* Do not, in general, openly defy management. There are many instances when you need to push back to protect your interests and so that people don’t see you as a pushover, but most of the time I keep my head down so as not to attract unwanted attention to myself. There’s no need to risk getting shot for a failed mutiny when desertion will do just as well. + +* Be psychologically disengaged but alert to what’s going on at work. Dropping the ball on something management deems important is another way to attract unwanted attention to yourself. + +* In some cases it might be advantageous to slow down work by following to-the-book inefficient corporate rules or work practices. In my organization this often results in days of inaction as we wait for the necessary managerial approvals and sign-offs from other departments. I’ve also seen foot-dragging and in some cases sabotage used to good effect by colleagues. + +* Bond with like-minded colleagues. Share information and work together against sycophantic and dishonest corporate climbers at work. I resist being an ass-kisser because I fear that sort of habit will become ingrained if I engage in it for too long. For the same reason I try to overcome my need for recognition from the higher-ups. + +* Follow through and stay focused on FIRE. + +Hopefully my experiences are helpful to others who are in a similar predicament. + +For those who are interested, my personal situation is that I’m in my mid-30s and married, based in Shanghai and with two children. Our stats in USD: annual income and expenditure of $250k and $30k in 2020; current net worth: $2.1m. + +Edit 1: There have been some questions about the effect of my shirking on co-workers and subordinates. Let me say first of all that I don’t believe in taking advantage of peers or subordinates so that I can slack off, and I try my best not to do that. + +The reason why I don’t have a moral objection to shirking is because I work a “bullshit job.” It’s bullshit in a number of ways: +1. In my considered opinion, the job doesn’t provide any benefit to society and probably represents a negative externality. The less I do, therefore, the less harm I do to the world. +2. However much we produce, my managers will always make more work for us to do. That’s one of the reasons why it’s a bullshit job. The only way to reduce the volume of bullshit work is to push back. + +Edit 2: Some of the factors holding us back from FIREing: + +1. Our costs are abnormally low right now, since we live in Shanghai, a relatively expensive city in an inexpensive country and we don’t pay rent. We will likely move to an English-speaking country within the next five years and I expect our expenditure to at least triple. +2. I’m one of those people who believes all assets are in bubble territory so I don’t think our current net worth is necessarily reliable. +3. If I quit my job for good it will probably be hard to find something comparable if I want to rejoin the workforce in a couple years’ time. I might be wrong but I suspect financial institutions won’t look kindly upon someone who has a two-year gap in their CV. They want to see candidates committed to their careers! + +Edit 3: Thanks to those who recommended [The Gervais Principle](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/10/07/the-gervais-principle-or-the-office-according-to-the-office/). Its description of the three corporate archetypes rang true to me. + +I am the Loser: + +> They mortgage their lives away, and hope to die before their money runs out. The good news is that Losers have two ways out, which we’ll get to later: turning Sociopath or turning into bare-minimum performers. + +> The Losers like to feel good about their lives. They are the happiness seekers, rather than will-to-power players, and enter and exit reactively, in response to the meta-Darwinian trends in the economy. But they have no more loyalty to the firm than the Sociopaths. They do have a loyalty to individual people, and a commitment to finding fulfillment through work when they can, and coasting when they cannot. + +The Sociopaths are those whom I call the “sycophantic and dishonest corporate climbers” as well as most of those already in senior management. +I've been aware of crypto since Bitcoin was $1 and only gave it cursory looks every few months. This spring felt like it was the beginning of something big, and I am excited for upcoming changes. Is it just me feeling this way or do other people see a bright future ahead? +Title pretty much says it all. It shouldn't be terribly difficult to set up (based on my experience) an IFTTT statement combined with Automod functions to instantly slap up a sticky with their latest tweet. This will significantly reduce clutter in "New" and reduce karma farming substantially. Mods, any chance we can make this happen? + +Edit: I very much like the additional suggestions of fellow apes to combat the 2 sticky post limit Reddit has in place. Having the Stonkbot post them to a God Tier Tweet flair would be sufficient to keep them organized and the upvotes will do as much as a sticky ever could. +I’m 22 years old and make 73k a year. I’m 15% of every paycheck into a Roth 401k with a 6% match. My monthly expenses for living come out to around 1500 when considering rent parking utilities. I’m expecting to have multiple promotions in the next 5-8 years which is my time horizon to buy a house. Ideally I’d like to skip the starter home and get my home home around 30 years old. What I’m planning on doing is investing X% of my paycheck into an investment account and buy various etf / mutual funds in order to save up for a down payment. I’m curious if anyone has additional ideals / advice. Thanks! +I'm at a lost for words. I feel so lost and vulnerable. I'm in a depressive state like never before and can't get out of bed. I am in credit card debt of 2K too and I have $200 to my name. I want to rip my heart out, I feel so incredibly drained and lifeless. I don't know what to do. My portfolio has been on a downtrend and yesterday is the the it officially hits $30 on my trading account. I am unemployed and starting school next week. I have no way of making the money back. My parents will be in extreme distraught if they were to find out. + +The worse part? Someone told me to buy Netflix puts yesterday but I didn't. What could have happened, what should have happened is fucking up my mind so bad. If I had just listen I could have completely changed this situation. The fact that I missed out on this deepened my wound so much when I woke up today. So much so that I caught myself rerunning the senorio in my head and see how much I would have made, and then briefly imagined the joy of actually having the gains, which further drags me into the pitifulness that hurts so bad. This was a once in a lifetime gain that was so obvious and this ontop of my lost is unbearable and truly makes me miserable. + +I promise this is all real and I wish so much that this is a troll post and that I'm faking all of this. I'm at a lost for words. I feel so lost and vulnerable. I'm in a depressive state like never before and can't get out of bed. My heart aches so fucking bad and I want to curl up forever. I am so defeated to be put into words. I know, but I won't end my life so please don't worry, I promise. I just need a hug so fucking bad. +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** + +[Not calling computer apes sheep, just an analogy. ](https://preview.redd.it/wa1wfk14ly271.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7038463e40b13d86e37ee7267f632bd2adf35ab7) + +# Intro + +bahhhhhhhhhhhhh bahhhhhhhhhhhh bahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Woah apes, did you hear that? Oh no.... it's..... it's our greatest weapon.... the computer apes..... the geniuses.... THEY'RE HERE....... + +Alright apes, this is gonna be a strange post. So as many of you know, I recently sent out a request for coders/big brain apes for a DD that I plan to make. I am not joking when I say that I have received well over 350 messages (a testament to how many extremely intelligent apes that are in this sub). + +https://preview.redd.it/b6ogf7huly271.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71b671b580ff9b1ff6ce1208d266d27c9f192352 + +When I posted that request, I thought that I'd get MAYBE 50 responses and would filter them out to about 20 people. NOPE. You apes defied expectations yet again. With over 350 messages in my inbox, I prepared a detailed request for what I wanted to computer apes to calculate. That was the easy part. The difficult part was how I would get my data request out. At first, I sent it individually (about 50 apes have a copy of this already), but that took too long and I knew I wouldn't be able to respond to all apes. Then I thought about making a discord or a group chat, but again, thought that would be too unorganized. So, I decided to go with ole reliable: a post to my favorite sub. I think that the benefit of this is that apes will be able to comment on this post their data so that it is publicly available for all apes to see; however if you would like to keep your data/post private, feel free to message me. Along those lines, PLEASE only message me if it is absolutely crucial question or if it is your data/model/whatever. I am at the point where I have far too many messages to respond to, so please keep that in mind. + +Alright, so, yes, I will still be making a DD (topic on that will be discussed below), however, I hope that the comments of this post can be used as a hub of publicly available information for apes to share - again, if you'd like to keep yours private or only feel comfortable sharing it with me, please message me. + +# What I hope the DD will be + +Many of you probably noticed in my last post that I said we need to stop all of this AMC conspiracy stuff. I still believe that and could make an entire post about why we need to stop doing that and why it's wrong - that's not what this DD will be about. Instead, I hope to make this DD about the fact that every meme stock (GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, NOK, etc.) have all been trading in extremely similar patterns since December and are now ALL SQUEEZING AGAIN. Short squeezes are rare, really rare. Stocks following almost identical trading patterns is weird, really weird. But both of those things happening to 5 different stocks? Now that's fucking asinine. I am also fairly confident that many if not all of the aforementioned stocks follow an FTD cycle as well. Finally, isn't it weird that all of these stocks got restricted at the exact same time by every single brokerage and they all claimed it was because of liquidity issues. The funny thing about liquidity is that it works on both the buy and the sell side, so if they really had liquidity issues, they would've just halted buying AND selling. That screams "systematic risk / something more than meets the eye" to me. + +IMO, if we can get data that confirms that these stocks are in fact correlated to a statistically significant extent, all have FTD cycles, all have extremely high short interest that has fluctuated in concert, and all have similar volume patterns, then we can get the closest proof that shorts have not covered other than literally seeing their accounts. The point of this DD would be that if we can prove to a statistically significant extent that all of these anomalies are correlated, then we can prove that it is not the media narrative of retail buying and is instead shorts being forced to cover. IMO retail mass buying has been tapped out since March. Now I think that retail only buys a little and still holds it's fucking balls off. Retail holding is why this is able to happen. However, IMO, HF forced covering is why the price keeps going up. + +Now, you may be thinking "ok if what he's saying pans out to be true then it could divide apes and take attention away from GME." First of all, IMO, the truth is what's most important here. Second, and most important, GME presents the greatest opportunity out of all of these stocks, has BY FAR the most retail support (in terms of holding), and has by far the most retail media attention (i.e. reddit). I don't believe that this will take away from GME whatsoever. HFs put us in this situation with lies and if we can get closer to the truth, we can get closer to unearthing their lies and ultimately winning the battle. Below is a slightly altered version of what I sent to some apes in my messages. Please note that if you sent me a message saying you're a data scientist and want to help, though I appreciate you, I will be declining all of those messages to clear my inbox for messages from this post (remember what I said above about only messaging me very important things). + +# The data request: + +&#x200B; + +\*\* This is not financial advice nor a paid solicitation\*\* + +&#x200B; + +My goal for this DD is to obtain data that will be the closest thing other than seeing actual HF positions to allow us to conclude that shorts have indeed not covered. I will be using the data that I get from this assignment as well as my own data and charts. If you follow my DDs, you’ll notice that over the past few DDs I’ve really hammered the point about GME, AMC, KOSS, BBBY, NOK, and EXPR being a part of the biggest failing of HF shorting of all time due to abusive shorting that started during covid but was hampered by a faster than expected recovery. IMO, the visual similarities of the graphs of these stocks are too striking to ignore. I also believe that AMCs recent run up is not a distraction like many people think it is, instead I think it’s a symptom of something much greater. This is why I believe that all of these stocks are related and that getting concrete data on this correlation might help us to reveal something about an even bigger FTD cycle that HFs are stuck in (IMO this is probably why all of these stocks were unprecedentedly restricted). + +So, a lot of this document will have tasks that ask you to compare those stocks in some way. Please note, that this document does not portray the complete picture of what my next DD will contain as I have more points and data that I will be including. Again, it will be difficult for me to answer questions, so if you have any questions, I invite you to answer them yourselves by adding your own assumption or personal touches. Thank you apes. + +Note: For chart view please use a 1 day chart unless I ask for a specific time of day (then use 1 min or 5 min). If, however, you think that using a smaller view would be beneficial, go ahead! The time frame can be as long as makes sense to you - again I will be getting tons of these so I am all for variation! + +I hope to complete this DD by Sunday so I can post on Monday before earnings and the meeting. If you could try to get this to me ASAP I’d be very grateful. + +**QUESTION:** Is there a statistically significant correlation between the price action GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, NOK, and VIX? + +**EXPLANATION:** I’d like you to run a comparison of each of these stocks to GME and then, if possible, compare them all simultaneously. From your comparison, please try to determine the degree of correlation and its statistical significance. The data that I suggest using is from Yahoo finance. If you go on the historical data tab of the stock, there will be a link to download the price and volume data into an excel file. Finally, if you have time and if you are able, do the same thing but with the volumes. + +**QUESTION:** Is there a statistically significant correlation between the OTC trading data of GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, and NOK? + +**EXPLANATION:** I’d like you to use FINRA data (I think some is on fintel as well) of the aforementioned stocks and try tell me if there is a statistically significant correlation between the trading patterns, volume, and price action of these stocks on the OTC markets. + +**ALTERNATIVE ASSIGNMENT:** If what I said above confuses you, then I invite you to simply take the OTC data available on the listed sites for the aforementioned stocks and make me some graphs and tables so that I can visualize it. + +**QUESTION:** When did the short interest for GME, AMC, KOSS, NAKD, BBBY, and NOK start to increase significantly? + +**EXPLANATION:** I’d like you to try to find out when exactly the SI for all of these stocks started to increase. Did they all increase around the same time? Who had the biggest increase? Etc. To find this information, you can use FINRA data or, if you have an Ortex or Fintel subscription, you might be able to find it from those. If you could also give me a graph of the short interest of these stocks over time that would be great. + +**QUESTION:** How often do major short squeezes happen? + +**EXPLANATION**: I’d like you to try and find out how often major short squeezes happen in the stock market. My definition of a major short squeeze is when a stock doubles in price (or more) within one week (so TSLA would not be a short squeeze by that definition). I don’t need you to tell me each specific case, I just need to know how often they happen on average. + +**QUESTION:** Is the FTD cycle statistically significant? + +**EXPLANATION:** You’ve probably seen my posts on the FTD cycle where GME markedly increases every 21 trading days or 35 calendar days (with a margin of error of about two days). I’d like you to run a test to see if these increases are statistically significant. For reference on when this starts, see my most recent FTD cycle post. For the stock’s data, go to Yahoo Finance and under historical data, you will be able to download the price and volume into an excel doc. + +**EXTRA:** Do the same for KOSS, BBBY, AMC, NOK, EXPR + +**EXTRA EXTRA:** Create an FTD cycle model for GME (other stocks don’t matter for this) that predicts future FTD cycles based on the rate of change of the FTD cycles we’ve already seen. Essentially, just make a model predicting the FTD cycle prices and show me the equation you used, if any. + +QUESTION: Is retail really behind the recent GME push? + +EXPLANATION: Robinhood only offers premarket trading from 9-9:30. Assuming that Robinhood is mostly retail, is there a statistically significant pattern of GME price increases between 9-9:30am? (This would be when retail overnight buy orders are executed) + +**\*\* MODELING: Most difficult assignment (I do not expect anyone to be able to do this, but I thought I’d put it out there):** + +Remember when it was pretty well known that GME had 140% SI right before the squeeze? Well, us apes know it was definitely higher, but you remember. Remember when Robinhood and every other broker cucked us by restricting buying? Well, what if they didn’t? I’d like you to construct a model that predicts how high GME’s price could have gone without the restrictions. Because I have sent this to so many people, I expect these models to be extremely different, so you will undoubtedly have to make some of your own assumptions, and that’s a good thing! For example, you might assume that the SI was actually 400%, that volume would have continued to increase, and that apes would’ve continued to hold. Contrastingly, you might assume that SI was indeed 140%, that volume would have been higher some days and lower others, and that paperhands would have won the day. Either way, I want to see what your model says about GME’s price without the brokerage restrictions. If SOMEHOW, you complete that model, first, you’re fucking brilliant. Second, and only if you feel like it, please do the same for AMC, KOSS, NOK, BBBY, EXPR + +**FINAL ASSIGNMENT:** + +If I decide to use any of what you provide me for my DD, would you like me to give you credit or would you like to remain anonymous? + +&#x200B; + +# Conclusion + +That was the list of questions that I sent to other people. The point of it is to essentially prove that all of these stocks are interconnected and all go back to one big fucking blunder on the part of the HFs that they are now trying to fix (in vein I might add). + +Again, if you would like to add your own creative touches or even make a completely different data model, be my fucking guest. If you want to share your data as public information in this sub or on this post as a comment feel completely free. If you would rather remain anonymous and just send it to me, feel free as well. I will still be making a DD with the data from this and, because I think a lot of this will now be public, I think that many other apes will as well. Please remember what I said about only messaging me things relating to this data post or CRUCIAL questions. As always, + +Stay strong, apes. + +&#x200B; + +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** +I did check Zerodha's coin and PaytmMoney. Both don't have that option. + +I think it's wise to buy MF on the monthly expiry as markets generally are low on the expiry. +This has been posted already but I feel it deserves more attention than it got. The process requires an administration fee of 650 NOK or ~$75, but it's worth it to help feed the catalyst. Here is the e-mail sent out to all GME hodlers on September 17th, translation courtesy of /u/Fiksdal: + +**Information from DNB Markets to shareholders in GameStop** + +Hi! + +You are receiving this letter on the grounds that you own shares in GameStop Corp. (GME) through DNB Markets. We have recently registered inquiries from customers who wish to transfer their shares from DNB to GameStop's account operator in the USA. In this regard, DNB wishes to provide you with the following information that you should consider before you send a request for transfer of your shares: + +\- Neither DNB Markets nor DNB Markets 'agent bank in the USA lend customers' shares in GameStop or in other companies. + +\- If you transfer your shares to GameStop's registrar USA, you will lose the opportunity to dispose of the shares in the period from the time they are delivered from DNB, until you have gained full access to your account with the registrar in the USA. + +\- Transfer of shares from DNB to GameStop's registrar can take up to 10 working days and the shares will no longer be available through DNB after the time of transfer. + +\- Once the shares have been delivered to the registrar in the USA, you as a customer will receive a bank statement in the mail with information on how to activate your new account on the registrar's website. Once you have activated the account, you will receive new login information in the mail which you can use to dispose of your shares with the account operator. This means that it can take a long time from the shares being delivered from DNB, until you can once again dispose of the shares with the registrar. + +\- Once the shares have been transferred from your account with DNB, you will no longer be able to sell these via DNB + +\- When the shares have been transferred from your account with DNB, DNB will no longer be able to report these to the Tax Authorities, and you must therefore enter this in your Tax Report. + +Note that the transfer of shares to the registrar in the USA costs NOK 650. + +If you wish to transfer your shares in GameStop to the registrar in the USA, we will request that you send a message in the online banking system on [DNB.no](https://DNB.no) with the following information: + +\- Social security number / organization number belonging to your securities account + +\- Full name and address + +Name / ticker of shares to be transferred to the registrar + +\- Number of shares to be transferred + +Sincerely + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +DNB Markets + +DNB Bank ASA + +Dronning Eufemias gate 30 | 0191 Oslo | Norway + +E-mail: [ah.markets@dnb.no](mailto:dah.markets@dnb.no) | [www.dnb.no](http://www.dnb.no/) +I reviewed some of the amazing Bloomberg Terminal files u/ravada posted tonight with the latest files from 4/19/21 compared to 4/11/21. I relied on my middle school algebra skills and added some numbers. This is NOT financial advise. Before GME I had never read a Bloomberg terminal even though looking back there were free ones I could have used when going to college 🤦‍♀️. + +[terminal](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9a2d/190421_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_term=link) + +The terminal calculates there are 70 million (line 24) of GME shares out. These are the real shares that GameStop has issued. + +Top ownership type as a percentage: +Investment Advisors AKA stock brokers under whom Retails shares are counted (line 41) own 64.39% of the shares. + +Individuals AKA insiders (line 44) currently have a total ownership of 6.3%. That is a change of 0.8% from 4/11/21 when insiders owned 7.1 of total shares. +The following math won’t yield the exact number of “shares” in circulation because it’s all based on this vague 0.8% change. + + +This is where I start doing math: +George Sherman in filings (the 12th top holder) owns 1,698,325 shares. However, on 4/19/2021 it was officially announced that Sherman is stepping down as CEO. This means that as of 4/19/2021 his 1,698,325 shares would no longer count as insider shares. We will use this to mean 1,698,325 shares are 0.8% of total ownership. + +0.8% out of 100% means Sherman owns 1/125 shares in circulation. +1,698,325x125=212,290,625 + +This means Bloomberg calculates that there are 212,290,625 “shares” in circulation. + +Investment advisors own 64.39% of the total shares. That amounts to 136,693,933 shares. + +Retail is counted under Investment Advisors. This means retail could own almost twice the amount of real shares(70 million) + + + + +Still don’t believe me: +Fidelity is not listed as a top holder because they sold their position and only have 87 shares left per current filings. This means retail shares are not reported in these slides listing the top holders. Top holders are made up of the elusive 35.61%. + +The top 37 holders own roughly 68 million shares combined. There are currently 351 institutional holders (line 13). Institutions are reported under the 35.61% that are not listed under Investment Advisor. 35.61% would be roughly 75,896,692 shares if 1% is equal to 2,122,906.5 shares. + + +Reiterating this is not financial advice. Do your own DD and 🧮. + +TLDR: The shorties created over 140 million shares. Retail owns roughly 136 million shares. 💎🙌🦧🚀🌕 + +Edit 1: to add link to terminal from 4/19/2021 + +Edit 2: u/thetruth888 added up the shares for the most common brokers and he calculates retail may own more than the 140 million I calculated. He provides averages. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mukw5t/bet_the_average_is_between_is_between_10_and_20/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_term=link + + +Edit 3: My math does rely on a big assumption for the 0.8% but when I add up all known insiders the mathematical changes only lead to a bigger “share” size. The top 6 of 21 insiders, if we include Sherman as an insider, is 12.5 million shares. + +Bloomberg calculates 7.3% of shares were held by individuals on 4/11/2011. Assuming the other 21 insiders only own 2.5 million shares combined (to make math easier). This would be 15 million shares owned by insiders. So 7.3% would conservatively be 15 million. This still gives us about 205.5 million “shares”. + +Edit 4: If it’s not clear already. My equation asumes that the unknown variable is the total number of shares in circulation with owners. +The total owned by anyone must be 100%. We use known percentages to find out what x means. + 💰 CHUMP CHANGE has just stealth launched to give everyone a fair chance at some nice potential gains! Liquidity has been burned and ownership has been renounced 💰 + +Tokenomics: + +12% Tax : + +♻️ 11% to Liquidity Pool♻️ + +♻️ 1% back to Holders♻️ + +Total Supply: 20,000,000,000 CCG + +Max Hold Amount: 300,000,000 CCG(1.5%) + +Max Buy: 100,000,000 SNT (0.5%) (NO WHALES ALLOWED) + +✔️ Verified contract: + +[https://bscscan.com/address/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde#code](https://bscscan.com/address/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde#code) + +✔️Ownership Renounced: [https://bscscan.com/tx/0xe6891a1987fa629d76677438ed2c58a71d870332aaffeac3b4d5ef9d487b9cd0#eventlog](https://bscscan.com/tx/0xe6891a1987fa629d76677438ed2c58a71d870332aaffeac3b4d5ef9d487b9cd0#eventlog) + +🔥Liquidity Burned: [https://bscscan.com/tx/0x6cba0a89c1f124070ba02666e84d8e7749bdb3f69fbba7d674e5f5b493dc5957](https://bscscan.com/tx/0x6cba0a89c1f124070ba02666e84d8e7749bdb3f69fbba7d674e5f5b493dc5957) + +💩Chart (Use V2): [https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde) + +🥞 PancakeSwap (V2): [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde) + +🐋NO WHALES: [https://bscscan.com/token/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde#balances](https://bscscan.com/token/0x878ae6ceea6466d70dbc5550f0427d096c4d9cde#balances) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/ChumpChangeToken](https://t.me/ChumpChangeToken) + +💰 REMEMBER, only throw in what you consider chump change! You might make some nice money, but keep the risks in mind! 💰 +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/u0djvrg1pcd91.png?width=1540&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8bf1f4e00d756179ff9f00dd86b69bf6eef7556 + +Good afternoon Reddit community, + +I thought it was time to update my Bank of America thesis. I will be the first to admit that since my first DD I have gotten more than a few things wrong, but the collective community has been great at sharing ideas and correcting things that may not have been accurate. As always nothing I post is financial advice, please be sure to **reference** properly if you are to discuss my post on other forms of media. + +**HYPOTHESIS: The Prime Broker BofA Securities has significant Gamestop Exposure and has put their parent company at risk of a giant short squeeze** + +**BANK OF AMERICA RECAP** + +**What we already know:** + +1. **BofA is the main Prime Broker for Citadel & 1 of 2 for Susquehanna and will be responsible for closing said positions if they cannot close** +2. **BofA had a significant Put position to potentially reset FTD/ use for futures** +3. **No Bank or Hedgefund had more GME-containing ETFs than BofA post squeeze** +4. **BofA's head of client equity solutions left to join Citadel after Jan 2021** +5. **BofA issued a $15 billion dollar bond in April 2021 to raise cash** +6. **Several high-level executives have resigned or have planned to.** +7. **BofA has large security sold not yet purchased position that has grown** + +**HOW WE GOT HERE**When Gamestop was still early in its story (Pre-squeeze), Dr. Burry had sent a letter to the board urging for the purchase of their Common Stock. In this letter, Dr Burry shares this... + +>Notably, as of July 31st, 2019, Bloomberg reports short interest in GameStop stock at 57,226,706 shares – this is about 63% of the 90,268,940 outstanding GameStop shares at last report. We submit that when share prices are at or near all-time lows and more than 60% of the shares are shorted despite cash levels much higher than the current market capitalization, lack of faith in management’s capital allocation is the default conclusion. + +Now for us, you might not care where you get the stock, but you might; if you are a serious enough stock trader you probably do. Bloomberg wrote a [great article](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-03-26/merrill-lynch-s-secret-stock-deals) regarding Merril Lynch's broker-dealer business and discussed how they source client shares. Dr. Burry in particular is one of these people who cares how shares are delivered. When he tracked the share buyback of Gamestop shares in the fall of 2019, he for one was smart to monitor where the shares were sourced from. As seen below you can see a large volume of shares came from "MLCO". MLCO is the identifying code for shares sourced by Bank of America Merril Lynch. (shout out to [u/zirdc](https://www.reddit.com/u/zirdc/) for posting this months ago). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tfyy2xrepcd91.png?width=816&format=png&auto=webp&s=60352d3201500e26957393a22711b467fee7639b + +You can see that Gamestop was extremely shorted prior to the COVID crash. Given that let's imagine every Hedgefund shorting everything into oblivion when we had the correction in March of 2020 (especially retail brick and mortar). In reality, it was a great play, but because Gamestop was in a very unique position of being already heavily shorted and having significant exposure in so many ETFs made it become a stock unicorn. When we include Ryan Cohen's purchases shirking the float even more the game was over. This doesn't even include the millions of retail investors who like the stock. It would be really interesting to see how Ryan Cohen's 9 Million share purchase was filled. (If you want to drop a hint RC that would be cool). Speaking of ETFs.... + +&#x200B; + +**ETFS** + +Now I wanted to take a moment to share some insight regarding ETFs. Now it has long been theorized that institutional shorting via ETF creation and redemption is how Gamestop has continued to be shorted without relying on Gamestop shares to borrow. At times we can see the ETF **XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF)** having short exposure of 1000+ %. Shorting through ETFs can be very expensive but is an alternative strategy to drive the price down. I had first mentioned the ETF GME exposure in my Second DD discussing previous positions in **IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF)** , and **IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF)** among several large financial institutions. This in theory could be a clue that they are being used for Gamestop locates and shorting. While I will admit that IJR & IWM were ETFs with large Gamestop exposure it does not indicate any suspicious activity. I would like to thank my pal u/turdfurg23 for his continued digging through everything ETF-related. + +Below is a graph of ETF creation and redemption of ETFs from Vanguard, State Street, and Blackrock that contain GME. You can see the following Authorized Participants have used these GME-related ETFs to their advantage: + +* Merril Lynch Professional Clearing Corp +* Citadel Securities LLC +* Virtu Americas LLC +* Goldman Sachs & Co + +https://preview.redd.it/clw3fkcwpcd91.png?width=1185&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba74ba4575114a9171bc8acdbee48c17acf046ea + +I also wanted to look into some less well-known ETFs that contain GME. If we take a quick look at the ETF **"MEME" (Roundhill Meme ETF)**. we see it is the ETF with the greatest concentration of Gamestop. + +https://preview.redd.it/rin1tu6zpcd91.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=96bd8f23ab00374b75128370a5c9271a8af8b9fa + +https://preview.redd.it/bd0t0260qcd91.png?width=1846&format=png&auto=webp&s=60ee8ce281545bd1b1a7ed7a473519caba99edf7 + +The only two Authorized Participants that have used ROUNDHILL MEME are Goldman Sachs and Merril-Lynch Processional Clearing Corporation. + +Below is a snippet from [this article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-25/fund-that-lost-80-of-assets-in-gamestop-drama-faces-new-turmoil#xj4y7vzkg). It's not often we have a mainstream news source confirming the ETF redemption process is a method used to source GME shares. + +https://preview.redd.it/p3j69hr2qcd91.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=3de852c4c51e51697a6887ae5e0e85127166d74a + +&#x200B; + +**CLOSING OF PART OF THEIR PRIME BROKERAGE UNIT** + +Below is an article I found from an efinanialcareers.com exclusive. If you blinked you might have missed it. Now admittedly I believe this is only part of their Prime Brokerage Business and only the Europe/Middle East/Africa branch but I find it very interesting that they shut down their Institutional custody business. Now admittedly I am not the most knowledgeable person when it comes to this stuff and any insight would be really appreciated. When I dig into what duties those in the custody business they include the following: + +* Securities settlement +* Safekeeping of assets (segregated by sub-account if necessary) +* Dividend and interest collection and payment +* Corporate action processing +* Proxy voting as directed +* Providing tax reporting information +* Cash management + +If their Prime Broker is no longer holding those assets does that mean they are distancing themselves away from total return swaps? To be honest, if someone who has experience in this stuff could chime in that would be great. + +[https:\/\/www.efinancialcareers-canada.com\/news\/2022\/05\/bank-of-america-closing-prime-custody](https://preview.redd.it/v1ep4n48qcd91.png?width=1244&format=png&auto=webp&s=55ec290f6e2267e5f628297468289641ab2c5200) + +**CME FINE FOR NOT POSTING FUTURES MARGIN & PROVIDING ADEQUATE DISCLOSURE** + +Based on the fine BofA Securities recently received it seems that they have likely missed a collateral call with CME and/or failed to maintain their futures margin requirements. It would also seem that they likely have failed to keep a record of their performance bond calls issued. It has been theorized that we see a quarterly wave due to positions being held in futures and the run-ups due to the settling of the change in the underlying position. + +https://preview.redd.it/40aqr8laqcd91.png?width=998&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7c1ca867e04cb4df764cd242e55926087e8c610 + +**INCREASED LENDING TO ASSET MANAGERS** + +I also thought it was worth mentioning the increased lending to Asset managers and funds by Bank of America. Lending to asset managers is the largest sector for commercial credit exposure and there has been an increase in lending every quarter since Q3 of 2020. The percentage of commercial lending has also increased from 9% in Q3 2020 to 16% in Q2 of 2022. While there is nothing wrong with the increased percentage of lending to asset managers I argue that it is less of a function of wanting to lend but having to lend. + +[From BofA's 2022 Q2 earnings report](https://preview.redd.it/g2pur8ccqcd91.png?width=1796&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4578ee5cec8aec249ed7df5a55b5a0e409cffc6) + +I argue that the idea of being collateral called isn't as much of an issue if the prime broker that is exposed is at risk due to the positions. To my knowledge, Credit Suisse is still famously sitting on 3% of Archegos positions. Hypothetically if forcing the closure of positions would put you at risk, why force the closure? I also found these interesting pieces of writing in the FOMC minutes for their January 26th & June 3rd meetings. These statements are in line with the theory of increased leverage among Hedge funds/Market markers. + +[page 14 of Jan 26th 2022 FOMC minutes https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcminutes20220126.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/62agevydqcd91.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e92de64cd331065c880e8344333042b09e0a6b1a) + +[page 5 of June 3rd 2022 FOMC minutes https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcminutes20220504.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/pbboletfqcd91.png?width=682&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dbfcc0b91832879b8efd7f985692c4821b7747) + +**CONCLUSION** +Based on the previous DDs that I have written and the evidence provided above I believe that Bank of America has exposure to Gamestop short positions (Directly and as a PrimeBroker). I don't exactly know when or if (here's hoping) it will ever be realized but I will admit I don't think I would want to be their CEO Brian Moynihan right now. + +Thanks for reading. + +**PREVIOUS DD** + +[Bank of America Quarterly Update. Morgan Stanley has entered the chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qm9tnr/bank_of_america_quarterly_update_morgan_stanley/) + +[The Bank of America and Gamestop DD update. Swimming in Puts, ETFs, and the new NSFR rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/onrzz9/the_bank_of_america_and_gamestop_dd_update/) + +[The Complete Bank of America Gamestop DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsioql/the_complete_bank_of_america_gamestop_dd/) + +[Popcorn stock Delayed Memestock Endgame With Their June Share Offering.](https://www.reddit.com/user/gfountyyc/comments/p3eo1f/popcorn_stock_delayed_memestock_endgame_with/) +**4th of July:** + +\- RC Tweets "Power to the Players" + +\- 10 days before 14th of July + +\- could indicate he filed with NYSE about dividends (speculation) + +&#x200B; + +**8th of July:** + +\- RC tweets a Gamestop on the moon with an ape and DoubleUSB guy drawing green replica of GME chart going through the roof with a crayon made by [/u/the\_end\_is\_neigh-\_-/](https://www.reddit.com/u/the_end_is_neigh-_-/) + +&#x200B; + +**11th of July:** + +\- [Space Oddity from DFV Tweet](https://twitter.com/theroaringkitty/status/1382846198726459394) was released in 1969 + +&#x200B; + +**14th of July:** + +\- Bastille day (Bastille was torn down "Brick by Brick" and is a symbol for people's revolution against the wealthy and mighty) + +\- ***NFT mint day*** + +\- Blackrock [possibly wanting shares back from IWM](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oapj59/blackrock_addition_to_the_russell_prospectus_cant/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) which could force partial covering + +&#x200B; + +**16th of July:** + +\- Apollo 11 launch day + +\- a loooot of options expirations + +\- various TA stuff from DDs I've read only TLDRs of converging + +&#x200B; + +**20th of July:** + +\- *Moon Party* organized by Gamestop and Super League Gaming + +\- T+2 fuckery of the 16th hitting the fan + +&#x200B; + +**31st of July:** + +\- federal housing moratorium ends, which could put banks (and the economy) into hot (ter) water + +&#x200B; + +**20th of August:** + +\- Moon party ends (maybe with a bang?) + +\- T+35 from 16th of July options expiration + +&#x200B; + +**23rd of August** + +\- [Algo cycle restarts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ogjkao/i_think_i_figured_out_the_shorting_algorithm/) + +&#x200B; + +This is just a data dump, I'll let you draw your own conclusions from this. + +**TLDR: BUCKLE UP, JACK THEM TITS AND TAKE A LEAK BEFORE THE RIDE, WE GOING TO OUTER SPACE** + +EDIT: Added some more DATES. Yes I did it. I like to live dangerously. If you have important dates we should add to this cool calendar just send me a DM, I'll be your date-shield. +Good Evening Apes! + +Another weekend...another shitstorm of drama and wild speculation. + +I've been a bit busy this weekend getting ready to move, and I want to let you all know your @'s have not gone unseen. + +I don't feel that I can write about anything productive this week without first addressing my opinions on these two topics so we will start here and move into the analysis section. + +As always I will post a consolidated [Video DD of this on my YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) for those of you that don't have the time to read through this, or have visual impairments/reading comprehension issues. This will be uploaded by... + +9pm EDT/UTC-4 + +# Part I: Too many shares to stuff in my cellar... + +So I want to take a quick moment to discuss my opinions on the two big pieces of news to come out of this weekend. + +**Section 1: Cellar Boxing** + +I'm not sure when it became news to people that this was a strategy that was possibly being employed on GME but a large aspect of the main MOASS thesis has always been that they had excessively naked shorted GameStop in an attempt to drive them out of business. But I understand that this information isn't always the easiest to obtain, especially for newer apes. So here is why I think it's relevant and why it's not. + +Pros: + +* Cellar Boxing is a strategy employed by market makers that manipulates the bid/ask spread of a stock with prices lower than .001 +* This is likely what Melvin began doing in 2014 as evidenced here on long-term OBV + +[Long-Term OBV showing the original short position](https://preview.redd.it/8r48u73np4n71.png?width=2459&format=png&auto=webp&s=33272dd1166061e3ac7964aa1bbeba7640491aca) + +* This is one reason why we think that there is a massive naked short position on GME. I suspect there are additional factors, but, if GME had been brought down to the levels where this strategy would have been effective I'm sure it would have been employed. +* This is generally performed on stocks of micro-cap companies as it is not easy to do on companies like GameStop with larger floats and market caps. + +Cons: + +* GameStop never dropped to the the price levels that are needed to affect this specific type of manipulation +* This disregards the far more obvious manipulation occurring on GameStop vis-à-vis derivatives +* The SEC is well aware of this form of manipulation, which doesn't necessarily mean they will do anything about it... +* This was not the strategy used, at least initially, on Toys-R-Us, Sears, or Blockbuster. These businesses failed due to mismanagement and dying industries. Not every bear thesis is wrong, but GME was. + +I think the real focus for now around this needs to be the same things we were looking into already; + +Where and how is this massive naked short position held? + +How does this effect the short participants margin? + +What is the game plan for SHFs and MMs when this strategy goes south, as it obviously did on GME? + +&#x200B; + +**Section B: The Yahoo Anomaly** + +Last Friday Yahoo Finance began reporting a float on GME of 249.51M shares... + +Normally I would dismiss this as an error or glitch. + +However, + +There are several reasons I think this bears looking into and have been doing so with all my free time this weekend. + +* We know that yahoo gets it's reported float data from ICE and Morningstar +* We know CME's futures rollover date was on 9/9 and based on evidence found by my research team, this last week, it was concluded they had till 9/17 to complete that rollover. Even though traditionally any necessary covering has always been completed on that date. +* There is other data specific to GME being changed and/or misreported elsewhere. Fidelity showed an increase of 3.6 million available shares to borrow, the float size on WeBull changed from 9/9 to 9/10 as well. + +WeBull 9/9/21 float + +https://preview.redd.it/kric4x9115n71.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=21fffd221737d3f5c9cd67ced5ddf5ddefb38342 + +WeBull 9/10/21 Float + +[also note differences in Mkt Cap even thought the closing price was lower...decrease in P\/E, and change in outstanding shares is ≠ to change in free float. ](https://preview.redd.it/ukphuvf515n71.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=e94e33510961ba089fa90f376e8439d794546dff) + +Fidelity 9/10/21 Shares to borrow up from 1.03m the previous day + +[Fidelity shares. Listed as hard to borrow should mean they are not available institutionally.](https://preview.redd.it/ijjckugs15n71.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=59871714673d7b84021fc15cdf942be330434faa) + +While the discrepancies can occur after a share offering there wasn't one... + +I expect based on research I've been doing and discussions I've had in my discord and on stream that we are seeing one or more of these possibilities playing out. + +1. We are seeing the balance of shares held in this quarters futures contracts being displayed as part of the float. Since they were not rolled in time the position is now exposed. (This explains the large number of shares returned to Fidelity even though they sold the majority of their position in January) +2. They have been margin called and have not met net capital requirements causing their FTDs to be kicked out into the open market revealing the synthetic shorts as part of GME's actual float. +3. The switch from OATS to CAT at FINRA has revealed the synthetic short position because of it reveals proprietary orders, eliminates market making exemptions, and includes data from OTC equities and derivatives. +4. This is simply a data anomaly, only occurring on GME across multiple platforms at the same time...👀 right? + +[Pretty visible contrast in the rollover dates on the 1D](https://preview.redd.it/i1h4taub95n71.png?width=1584&format=png&auto=webp&s=5539c4c97180f68d087259417c01a7f444e966ff) + +*\*all of this is still theoretical but I wanted to offer insight to the community into what I think is the mostly likely scenario.* + +# Part II: Technical Analysis + +While this feels a bit pointless right now, because I expect any price action that occurs on GME in the **next seven trading days** to be related to factors outside of market psychology and technical analysis. There is at least one technical indicator playing out that I want to address. + +**The BARR (Bump and Run Reversal) pattern -** This occurs when excessive speculation occurs (bump), the price reached is unsustainable and corrects (run), a support is found (reversal). The price action can now retrace at a more sustainable levels with solid support. + +[BARR on GME 4hr indicating potential upside movement with stronger support. Drawn on the linear chart to correctly plot vertical movement. ](https://preview.redd.it/o7ifa22wg5n71.png?width=2455&format=png&auto=webp&s=71a29ce7b8f44935b70087e7c1cb01ecd4076b2a) + +This indicates we can see upside potential after a bounce on that solid bullish trend. + +Here is that reversal on the long term TA + +[Ascending Triangle on the 1D ](https://preview.redd.it/83eb57flh5n71.png?width=2457&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a7c1f70fa481fd0bae789f8e88cb429c480b74d) + +Technical oscillators actually look pretty bearish this week but I expect that futures roll-over will ultimately make their signals irrelevant this week. + +**MACD** + +MACD is signaling bearish divergence but there is still a ton of unrealized range to the upside. For this cycle. This divergence is mostly due to the shorting after earnings and could be a false signal. + +[MACD 1D Timescale](https://preview.redd.it/7mz8fob8i5n71.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2cc87ff829435379ae697c10e817260d5f994e0) + +**Stochastic RSI** + +Signaling overbought but still shows potential for a second peak based on the previous cycle. I think this actually indicates that the rest of the covering for this cycle has yet to be completed. + +[StochRSI 1D ](https://preview.redd.it/xbphru12j5n71.png?width=1593&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ff5c0467ececbb54b25febb3d2b6fbce26931db) + +**Futures Theory:** + +I still expect whatever covering had to be done this quarter due to futures rollover has yet to be completed as the run on **8/24 was the quarterly options rollover** as I have previously discussed. Based on data from earlier cycles there is still an additional \~190M (estimate) volume that needs to be traded. + +My current thesis is that that SHFs or MMs have till the September 17th to trade this volume. + +If this does not happen this week, either... + +* My theory is wrong and futures are not being used to hide FTDs from the original (pre-2021) short position +* They got enough shares from institutions and GME's ATM offering this cycle to cover what need to be covered. +* They do not intend to cover and will allow the contract to expire leading to covering the entire contract/s by T+2 from the September 17th which is September 22nd. + +\**Please remember as we understand it now these contracts do not represent the entire short/FTD position on GME. It is my current belief that the short position is split across several separate quarterly futures contracts and other derivatives. This is only a* ***theory*** *at this point and is not a recommendation to attempt to trade or profit off this action as there is still little proof as to it's reliability.* + +# Part IV: The Market + +The SPY has dropped through it's 20EMA signaling at least the potential for a correction, a dip below the 50MA or 60 EMA would be a confirmation of that correction and a fall below the 200MA on this chart would indicate a serious sell off leading to a potential crash. The SPY has had several straight days of bearish divergence which is an unusual anomaly to say the least. Normally I would discuss all the things affect the market this week but let's be honest this thing has been fucked for a while and it could finally be signaling an end of what has been a pretty exuberant bull run. I will be watching the market closely this week as I feel that this could be a potential catalyst for MOASS. + +[SPY reference for this week on the 1D](https://preview.redd.it/3fk23497n5n71.png?width=1587&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae6282e2feeabd0e2f2560adaa5fd496f77214c2) + +**An important note:** + +**If a market crash occurs before MOASS, we could see massive institutional selling on GME before a turnaround be prepared to hold fast, as the dip could be quite extreme (*****while negative beta could mean we turn around before other equities it is not indicative of future price movement*****). Possibly the largest dip buy opportunity since February. This could be the truest test of diamond hands, I know some of you weren't around for the January or March dips, the fear of watching your account balance bleed away can be difficult for even the most experienced market participants. But as long as you remember the shorts haven't covered and trust your research and the DD it should be an interesting ride.** + +**HODL ✋💎🤚** + +# Part IV: Conclusion + +With strange anomalies occurring with GameStop's data this week and the lack of expected volume from the futures rollover we were already looking forward to an interesting week. This, coupled with the insanely wide bid/ask spread and **massive gamma ramp** on the 17th, that allows for violent upside potential, really puts us in a very likely scenario for a short squeeze, if the expected volume comes flooding in. + +Pile the potential for at least a market correction on top of this and we are really cooking with some gas. + +Whatever happens this week. I will be on the edge of my seat the whole time. 0\^-< (tits jackked) + +&#x200B; + +If you want to see more information on this subject matter feel free to join me in the : + +Daily Live charting (always under my profile [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)) from 8:45am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +on my [YouTube Live Stream](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) from 9am - 4pm EDT on trading days\* + +or check out the [Discord](https://discord.gg/BGmjnrvHnw) for more stuff with fellow apes + +**As always thanks for following along.** + +🦍❤️ + +\- Gherkinit + +&#x200B; + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500. :)* + +*\*My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and feel compelled to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +\* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/) +1. **Denial** - You’re certain cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are a massive hype bubble doomed to crash, the modern equivalent of tulips or the dot.com era round 2 but so much worse. You're informed because you saw a [chart comparison of bubbles](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bitcoin-is-now-the-biggest-bubble-in-history-in-one-chart-2017-12-13) and this is the biggest ever. You believe the pundits that tell you that blockchain is the real innovation but cryptos are a scam. +2. **FOMO** - You observe prices keep going up, people are getting richer, and you want to get rich. Even though you know it’s all a fraud, you see the opportunity to make a quick buck and then bail before it all falls apart. You’re smart and not a believer, so you’re better than all those other cryptoheads. You got this. +3. **FUD** - You check prices every hour only to realize you bought at a peak just in time to witness a crash. You experience all 5 stages of grief. You sell on the dip to cut your losses. You swear off crypto for good. You feel relieved about your decision to sell because prices continue to drop even lower and you know you narrowly missed the bursting of the entire bubble. +4. **Repeat step 2** +5. **FML** - Prices crash again but you don’t sell this time. Instead you mentally write off the investment as dead money - whatever happens happens. You accept that you suck at trading and you don't understand the technology. +6. **HODL** - The price rockets back. You’re so elated that you start actually learning about the technology that’s making you money. You love to read pop-science article about the crypto revolution. You start proselytizing crypto to your friends. You become *that guy* at parties and family reunions for a bit. You get bored with it eventually, stop checking the price. You achieve inner peace. + +My worst fear of real estate investing is to have a "bad" tenant who never pays and then I have to pay 5-6k dollar to evict him. + +What's your tips to avoid bad tenants? Are there any people who invest long term but never have to evict a tenant? +* Circle K signed a deal with Green Thumb Industries to distribute weed next year beginning with 10 Florida locations. +* This isn't a first for gas stations to be selling cannabis products as alternative cannabinoids like Delta-8 THC are technically federally legal due to the 2018 Farm Bill, but it is the first time that regular weed would be distributed. +* Even more surprising about this development is that Florida does not allow for recreational use, but rather only with a medical card. + +Seems like a lot of catalysts for the weed industry at the moment. Biden's pardons at first and now this. Any companies worth investing in for the long run, or is the market a bit too shady at the moment with quasi-legality? + +EDIT: Forgot the [source](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/where-is-weed-sold-circle-k-gas-stations-in-florida-in-2023). It's behind paywall though. +[https://www.investing.com/news/economy/comic-what-crisis-wall-street-jumps-back-towards-alltime-highs-despite-worries-2184859](https://www.investing.com/news/economy/comic-what-crisis-wall-street-jumps-back-towards-alltime-highs-despite-worries-2184859) + +Has the ship sailed for us bears? + + \_\_\_\_\_ + +U.S. stock markets have been in rally-mode this week, as Wall Street grows more optimistic about the economy reopening, despite uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. + +The [Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30) closed above 25,000 for the first time since March on Wednesday, while the [S&P 500](https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500) topped the 3,000-mark, putting it back above its 200-day moving average – a key level watched by traders. + +The easing of lockdowns, optimism about an eventual COVID-19 vaccine and massive U.S. stimulus have powered a recent stock market rally. + +The Dow, S&P (NYSE:[SPY](https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500)) and [Nasdaq](https://www.investing.com/indices/nasdaq-composite) are up 40.2%, 38.5% and 41.9% respectively above their March 23 lows. + + The impressive recovery rally has propelled Wall Street’s main averages back towards their respective all-time highs reached earlier this year, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index just 4.3% away from its record peak. + +The bulls have had the upper hand in recent weeks, however that could change should the war of words between Washington and Beijing escalate further. + +That could be the catalysts to take the market lower, bringing the correction most are expecting to come. + +\_\_\_\_\_ +Anybody think Mohnish is just profiting off his relationship with Munger and building an online audience to market to? Why does Charlie allow this? The whole thing is so weird to me…everything on Mohnish’s Twitter, website, videos, etc. is a picture of him and Charlie, a bust of him and Charlie, a story of him and Charlie…he uses the relationship with Charlie to validate his investing abilities and advice to the public on the internet but there’s really no proof he is an above average investor. I feel like from everything I’ve read about Charlie he would loathe this. Anyone have any ideas on this? +I'm doing a some initial research into Corsair, but I'm struggling a little. Other than brand name, do they have a moat? I'm not seeing anything else and I'm not convinced the brand is strong enough. +# THIS IS A META THREAD IN WHICH I'M JUST DOING 2 THINGS: RANTING AND LINKING TO OTHER DD THREADS THAT PREDATE GME MOONING BY MONTHS, THUS CALLING BULLSHIT ON THE 6 MILLION NEW DEGENERATES THAT "HAVE NEVER SEEN A SLV JPM SQUEEZE IDEA IN THIS SUB BEFORE THE SUITS WANTED TO SAVE MELVIN". + +Do you realize reddit has a search function? Here is a list of posts that talk about a potential silver squeeze of SLV and JPM long, long, long before GME blasted off towards the moon. This is /r/wallstreetbets, not /r/GME. We trade multiple tickers, you dumbshit fucking "entry at $450" bag holding tards. + +Great, you joined in the last 2 weeks because your autistic nephew made more money in 2 months than you've ever done. + +Instead of just shutting up and watching the plethora of good DD posts rise and fall, you think this entire subreddit is only about holding one frickin' short squeeze as if that's the first time in history anyone got squoze, and downvote otherwise great research because you're frickin' terrified of losing money you couldn't afford to lose in the first place. + +The entire global media didn't all pool together in 48 hours to present a uniform story of "buy silver" as part of some frickin' conspiracy designed to save a few medium-sized American hedge funds. No more than COVID was made by the Chinese to win Biden the presidency, anyway. + +So here, since you guys are too damn handicapped to use a fucking search engine, are a list of DD/YOLO/Discussion posts about SLV and Silver written LONG BEFORE THE FUCKING GME SHORT SQUEEZE FINALLY ROCKETED!!! Jesus fuck, you tinfoil wearing sack of "fake news" American mouth-breathers with the collective IQ of a doorknob. + +Just look at the fucking DD and pretend GME doesn't exist for 5 minutes. Silver. Is. A. Deep. Fucking. Value. Play! It has value. So much fucking deep value! + +Yeah, no shit a market maker is holding silver positions when silver becomes more sought after, their job is to make fucking markets liquid. HOW ARE YOU GOING TO SUPPLY LIQUIDITY IF YOU DON'T HAVE SHIT TO SUPPLY?! DID YOU NOTICE HOW THEY HAVE A LOT OF PUTS AND A LOT OF CALLS, AND NOT JUST CALLS?! + +DO YOU THINK NO BILLIONAIRES HELPED RIDE GME UP? Do you think it was 100% retail on one side and 100% Melvin and Citron on the other? Ah, you do. Of course, you do. + + +GREAT, WE GOT 8 MILLION DEGENERATES HERE. The 6M that didn't manage to find this place without hearing about GME having rocketed already, MAYBE DON'T FUCKING POST, COMMENT AND BRING YOUR DAMN IGNORANCE INTO A SUB THAT WAS ACTUALLY PROVIDING 2-10 DECENT TRADE IDEAS PER WEEK PRIOR TO THIS CULT FUCKING INFESTATION OF JACKASSES COSPLAYING RETARDS. + +Whatever, here's a list none of you fuckers are capable of reading: + +\- 5 months ago, /u/negovany wrote "[Cornering Silver Market](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/idjk61/cornering_silver_market/)". The whole thing is about JPM and squeezing silver. $GME was at $5 back then and /u/DeepFuckingValue was still getting laughed at for buying at every opportunity. Rest of you fuckers had barely gotten over the last cult following, PRPL mattresses. +\- 6 months ago, /u/lucasandrew talks about "[Why you should trade futures - WSB Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i3qkex/why_you_should_trade_futures_wsb_edition/)", in which he mentions "*Speaking of SLV, people have been posting all the reasons that JPM fucks with the SLV ETF*". Yeah, I bet he took a fucking time-machine back 6 months in time after Citadel got stuck in the boo-boo. + +\- 6 months ago, /u/LE0TARD0 implores the "[SILVER CHAD'S RISE UP!](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hy7nvn/silver_chads_rise_up/)". A straight fundamental thread on why silver is undervalued, not mention JPM. However, in the comments, a thread is started by /u/kbtech18 and supplemented by /u/ayyayyron talking about precisely JPM and their price manipulation of silver. YEAH, NO THAT NEVER HAPPENED, I'M SORRY FOR BEING A SHILL, LIKE FUCKING TAKE YOUR TINFOIL HATS OFF YOU DUMB SHITS! + +\- 5 months ago, /u/Fuzzers wrote "[September Silver Futures Contact - Something Aint Right Kids](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i9b1th/september_silver_futures_contact_something_aint/)". +After hailing his fellow degenerates, HE IMMEDIATELY SAYS: "*I know there has been 6 billion posts about silver,"* before later writing "*A large amount of contracts will stand for delivery such as in July. If its enough, maybe some of the big banks who have short positions might find themselves in hot water with their silver delivery amounts.".* Isn't IT JUST GLORIOUS HOW MELVIN AND CITADEL HAVE ALL THESE TIME MACHINES TO MAKE UP IMAGINARY SILVER SQUEEZES 6 MONTHS BEFORE THEY WERE MADE UP? YOU GUYS ARE SO FUCKING DUMB RIGHT NOW, HOLY FUCK! DON'T INVEST IN SILVER IF YOU DON'T WANT TO, BUT PLEASE STOP WITH THE AMERICAN FAKE NEWS CONSPIRACY THEORIES, IT HURTS MY ALREADY FUCKED UP BRAIN, STOP, I DON'T CONSENT! + +\- 5 months ago (YOU GUYS, MAYBE YOU ARE RIGHT, ALL THE POSTS ARE FROM 5-6 MONTHS AGO, MAYBE IT REALLY IS A TIME TRAVELLING CONSPIRACY BY MELVIN AND CITADEL, YES, LET'S GO WITH THAT!), /u/jetter23, wrote "[Weekend Update - Silver](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i6l0o2/weekend_update_silver/)". What did he have to share, in terms of ideas and DD? " *4a) Banks will continue to fight us on silver, but they are losing as they were massively short,* ". WHAT SNEAKY FRICKIN' MARKET MANIPULATING HEDGE FUND SHILL HE IS, JUST GOING BACK SO FAR IN TIME TO SET US UP FOR THE PERFECT TRAP TO HELP CITADEL!!! + +\- /u/jetter23 was quite active shilling 5 months ago, he also wrote "[Weekend Update - Silver (DD#3)](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i9uxok/weekend_update_silver_dd3/)", where he just casually mentioned "*JPM is currently under DOJ investigation AGAIN for price speculation on Silver. JPM is learning a VERY expensive lesson that when there is a pandemic, global FIAT currencies are crashing(like the DXY), and there is a run on physical metals - you can't be naked short on paper."* IT'S ALMOST LIKE HE'S TALKING ABOUT SOME SORT OF SILVER SHORT SQUEEZE ON JPM, BUT HEY, THAT CAN'T BE IT BECAUSE THAT'S JUST A SCAM FAKE NEWS IDEA THAT'S 2-3 DAYS OLD, RIGHT? + +\- /u/CCJ_Moon_6969 popped his head into the stream of tachyons, relatively talking to us from the present all the way 6 months ago, when he wrote "[Silver. $SLV call options. New York Comex.](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hy8wv9/silver_slv_call_options_new_york_comex/)". Do you remember /u/kbtech18 from a few threads up? WELL, GEE WHIZ, HE COVERED THAT TIME STREAM TOO, talking about JPM and silver. 6 months ago. I mean, today. Reddit probably changed the timestamps on the posts. DAMN SHILLS! +\- /u/rawvi wrote "[JPM and Silver](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i88cyy/jpm_and_silver/)" 5 months ago, wanting to learn more about... time travel. Nothing to do with naked shorting of silver. BECAUSE THAT WASN'T EVER TALKED ABOUT ON THIS UNTIL 2 DAYS AGO, SO LIKE... HAH, HE COULDN'T HAVE BEEN ASKING ABOUT THAT, RIGHT?!?! CORPORATE SHILL BOT LOLOLOL! + +WE LIKE THE STOCK!!! + + +Don't buy silver, it's a time-traveling scam orchestrated by Kenneth Griffin! +NO FUCKING SHIT, ASSHOLES! Holy fuck. These people are so full of shit. Stumbling over words, stuttering, unable to speak clearly, and here it comes.... "we have not reached substantial progress, yet.." +NO FUCKING SHIT! GOD DAMN THESE PEOPLE ARE FUCKING CRIMINALS! +Our last 8 volume candles consist of: + +8k +9k +21k +13k +11k +9k +6k +15k + +NOBODY IS SELLING. This bitch is illiquid as fuck and dancing on the edge of blast off. + +WE DONT FALL FOR YOUR TRAPS CITADEL AND FRIENDS. + +💎 🙌 is still and always will be on the menu apes. + +Stay strong. + +Edit: Remember to vote. +The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against Kim Kardashian for touting on social media a crypto asset security offered and sold by EthereumMax without disclosing the payment she received for the promotion. Kardashian agreed to settle the charges, pay $1.26 million in penalties, disgorgement, and interest, and cooperate with the Commission’s ongoing investigation. + +The SEC’s order finds that Kardashian failed to disclose that she was paid $250,000 to publish a post on her Instagram account about EMAX tokens, the crypto asset security being offered by EthereumMax. Kardashian’s post contained a link to the EthereumMax website, which provided instructions for potential investors to purchase EMAX tokens. + +"This case is a reminder that, when celebrities or influencers endorse investment opportunities, including crypto asset securities, it doesn’t mean that those investment products are right for all investors," said SEC Chair Gary Gensler. "We encourage investors to consider an investment’s potential risks and opportunities in light of their own financial goals." + +"Ms. Kardashian’s case also serves as a reminder to celebrities and others that the law requires them to disclose to the public when and how much they are paid to promote investing in securities," Chair Gensler added. + +"The federal securities laws are clear that any celebrity or other individual who promotes a crypto asset security must disclose the nature, source, and amount of compensation they received in exchange for the promotion," said Gurbir S. Grewal, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. "Investors are entitled to know whether the publicity of a security is unbiased, and Ms. Kardashian failed to disclose this information." + +The SEC’s order finds that Kardashian violated the anti-touting provision of the federal securities laws. Without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings, Kardashian agreed to pay the aforementioned $1.26 million, including approximately $260,000 in disgorgement, which represents her promotional payment, plus prejudgment interest, and a $1,000,000 penalty. Kardashian also agreed to not promote any crypto asset securities for three years. + +The SEC’s investigation, which is continuing, is being conducted by Jon A. Daniels, Alison R. Levine, and Pamela Sawhney of the Enforcement Division’s Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, and Kerri Palen, Lisa Knoop and Victor Suthammanont of the New York Regional Office. The case was supervised by Mark R. Sylvester of the Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit and Carolyn Welshhans. + +The SEC’s statement urging caution regarding potentially unlawful celebrity-backed crypto asset offerings can be found here. SEC Chair Gensler today published a video warning investors not to make investment decisions based solely on the recommendations of a celebrity or influencer. + +Source: [https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-183](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-183) + +Kim Kardashian charged $1.26 million by the SEC over allegations she broke the law by promoting EthereumMax, without disclosing she was paid $250,000 for the promotion. Do you think all celebs who were paid to promote crypto and NFTs should also be charged? + From Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg: + +>Time May Be Ripe For An Inverse Cramer ETF: +One ETF that doesn't exist but maybe in the works is an inverse Cramer ETF, which would hold positions opposite to those promoted by the CNBC host. Recent calls on Netflix, AMC, and ARKK show the strategy could perform well and has potential for a hedge if the market struggles. Existing trackers and a planned index for Cramer's picks could be licensed to an ETF + +I would definitely be an investor in this just for the trolls. What is everyone's thought on a potential ETF? Would you add it to your portfolio? +Edit1: This has gotten more traction than I anticipated. Thanks for all the awards, I do this for the sub so that everybody can stay in line and not get carried away. I plan on doing an occasional "DD POLICE" Episode going forward, where I'll recap and face fuck any dd I can prove wrong or support ones I can further verify. Feel free to inbox me things you're sus about or want confirmed. + +&#x200B; + +Edit 2: In light of some people sending my some more info, I will be doing some more research on this post & updating it accordingly in the case I find any of this is misleading or incorrect. Thanks for holding my accountable as well! We need this! + +&#x200B; + +Edit 3: Updates Part 3 to include 3.1 which is the counter-counter DD. We all need to be held accountable, including myself. Big thank you to u/SmithEchoes ! Always do your own dd guys. + +&#x200B; + +Edit 4: $RY Opened at $94.61 as predicted today (4/19). Take off your tinfoil hats + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Sup you stupid cucks + +&#x200B; + +[It's TIME TO STOP with misinformation & date expectations](https://preview.redd.it/x8n3l0b2pyt61.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=96c4773149cb216db53f699a6f7e37f833c11fce) + +Yet again I've been summoned from my shitty fucking sleep schedule to save you from some more misinfo. + +&#x200B; + +# PART 1 - TLDR SINCE IT'S LATE AND YALL NEED SLEEP + +Going to make this very fucking clear for those in the back or that are too lazy to do their own DD (which must be a lot of people considering this shit keeps happening) + +1. **RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) DOES NOT HAVE CLEAR TIES TO CITADEL** +2. **RBC IS NOT SUDDENLY WORTH 66% LESS** + +&#x200B; + +# PART 2 - THE VIDEO CIRCULATING GME/SS SUBS + +*This crock of shit:* [$AMC $GME RBC -64% WHAT ARE THEY HIDING? - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smZmQrTP9kI&ab_channel=CharlieandtheVids) is particularly disheartening, because the creator (who I'm sure has good intentions) blatantly misinforms the audience. Yes, RBC stock did **TRADE** momentarily at $33.75, but then immediately was traded at it's regular price of \~$94.71 + +&#x200B; + +[At roughly 1800 EDT we say $RY trade 896 shares @ $33.75 \(total value: \~$30k\)](https://preview.redd.it/q81oa7g5pyt61.png?width=660&format=png&auto=webp&s=1823830e886c4280f0e5bfe34971accc0cc67c49) + +"The Royal Bank of Canada has direct ties with Citadel, this is very easily verified, you can look it up yourself."^((0:40 in video)) + +Well, **I did.** The (2nd) LARGEST institutional owner of RBC is JP Morgan @ LESS THAN 0.335%. The first? ~~Citadel~~ The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board @ 0.46% + +[RY Institutional Owners and 13F Filers (Royal Bank of Canada) ](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/RY/institutional-ownership/) + +[Citadel Advisors Llc ownership in RY / Royal Bank of Canada - 13F, 13D, 13G Filings - Fintel.io](https://fintel.io/so/us/ry/citadel-advisors-llc) + +It is strange that MarketWatch halts information of RY after hours at 1708, however you can even look at the NASDAQ website which shows you ALL after hours trades, and see that after hours had around \~170k volume, all of which were traded at \~94$ with the exception of **ONLY 896 shares TRADED AT 33.75** [(RY) Latest After Hours Trades | Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/ry/after-hours-trades) + +***Only 0.5% of after hours 4/16 $RY volume was traded at $33.75 instead of \~$94*** + +Oh, btw, in the comments the poster referred to this article as evidence of Citadel having connections to RBC: [Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish On Royal Bank of Canada (RY) - Insider Monkey](https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hedge-funds-have-never-been-this-bullish-on-royal-bank-of-canada-ry-819314/) + +"Among these funds, [**Citadel Investment Group**](https://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/citadel+investment+group/44/) held the most valuable stake in Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY), which was worth $83.8 million at the end of the third quarter. " ^(Quote from article) + +1. This is from March 2020, the market has changed VASTLY since then +2. As of 2/19/2021, JPMorgan Chase & Co. own $391M in shares of RY (nearly 20x that of Citadel now) +3. Citadels position is down 47.77% from what it was in 2020. They currently have 284,484 shares @ a value of \~$23M (0.04% of RBC) + +&#x200B; + +[chill the fuck out](https://preview.redd.it/jq7gi978pyt61.png?width=1275&format=png&auto=webp&s=93933c0e1fcf0932dfc48d4bdad48a1df3028d7c) + +&#x200B; + +[disclaimer: he \(probably?\) didn't say this](https://preview.redd.it/jsvxrpn9pyt61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=51d42d56d8ed975a0c92fe66c7d1b0158fb039b5) + +&#x200B; + +# PART 3 - WHY DID 896 $RY SHARES TRADE AT $33.75 THEN? + +IF ONLY WE HAD SOME KIND OF RELIABLE DOCUMENT, THAT WAS PUBLIC, AND GIVEN TO US WEEKS IN ADV- [Royal Bank Of Canada Prospectus 424B2 (sec.report)](https://sec.report/Document/0001140361-21-011078/) ^(oh wow, you smooth brain motherfuckers) + +"Trigger Price and Coupon , Barrier: ***$33.75***, which is 60% of the Initial Stock Price." ^(Taken from link) + +*Q: So what the fuck am I looking at?:* **A: " Royal Bank of Canada is offering Auto-Callable Contingent Coupon Barrier Notes (the “Notes”) linked to the common stock (the “Reference Stock”) of Toll Brothers, Inc. (the “Reference Stock Issuer”). The Notes are our senior unsecured obligations, will pay a quarterly Contingent Coupon at the rate and under the circumstances specified below, and will have the terms described in the documents described above, as supplemented or modified by this pricing supplement. "** + +*Pls wrinkle boy, smooth brain much. Need simp answer.* + +Basically, RBC is just doing business as usual. Everyone is on the egde of their seat with **4 major banks selling off $47 BILLION in assets** ^((BofA: $15B, JPM: $13B, GS: 10.5B, MS: 8.5B)) so this is getting way more traction than it normally would. Everyone is digging very fucking deep & hard to find connections that aren't there in order to scream Armageddon & watch the universe fucking implode on Monday. RBC will open @ \~$94 Monday as per usual, and if it doesn't, well, this post is far from the first thing you need to start worrying about. + +**WHAT IS WIERD** is that Citadel just closed out \~30k in options on Toll Brothers Inc. early. hmmm + +# PART 3.1 - THE COUNTER-COUNTER DD + +Check out this comment from u/SmithEchoes: + +"So.. if the trade date was March 29, 2021, next coupon barrier date not until the next quarter, and a call date no earlier then September 29, 2021, how exactly is the trigger price of 33.75 activated on April 16, 2021? + +The problem here is this is a 424B2 filing, which is a newly opened prospectus filing. Since it is newly opened, it can’t for the above mentioned reasons be the cause of the 33.75 AH price. Next we have initial stock price, which is for Toll Brothers, Inc (TOL), which on 3/29/21 (trade date) ranged from 55.96 to 59.52. 56.25 lines up pretty well with the VWAP ending normal trading hours, and maintains a conservative price in the benefit to the bank. + +So in real conclusions to the conclusions here, a random “Auto-Callable Contingent Coupon Barrier Notes” form 242B2 with a trigger price of 33.75 for TOL stock does not relate to a random after hours RY stock price." + +**I, like most of you, are also learning most of all this financial jumbo over the past few months. So, lets do our own DD again. Time to dive deeper into Auto-Callable Notes & Prospectus Filings.** + +&#x200B; + +[TLCR: Prospectus Filings are just a financial document to disclose or describe trades.](https://preview.redd.it/91k4caiysyt61.png?width=483&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed696ce9a98d4b99eff0333cf74ed738e696ccc3) + +&#x200B; + +[Taken from the RBC Prospectus Filing](https://preview.redd.it/rgg92ts6vyt61.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ea608c7becd330eef9e38a0c2eeede7615b7104) + +&#x200B; + +[qwik mafs](https://preview.redd.it/qbbmes8ruyt61.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdf9137939bbbcc1fd8b08055f46e3713b9206bd) + +Okay. So the numbers line up with my 3.0 explanation for apes. But what about Callable Fixed Rate Notes? Well, here's an explanation from RBC themselves: [Callable Fixed Rate Notes](https://www.rbccm.com/assets/rbccm/docs/expertise/fixed-income/us/rbc-callable-fixed-rate-notes-fact-sheet.pdf) (TLCR: They are call options) + +*Q: What do we know about call options?* " **A: For most profitable covered call positions, it is best to let them ride until expiration.** (in this case that would be until AT LEAST September 2021. However, There is nothing in the RBC Prospectus filing that states they can not be closed our PRIOR to that. Which is what Citadel did) **But in certain circumstances it may make sense to close out the trades early to manage risk or free up capital for new opportunities. Always pay attention to transaction costs, and use a limit order when closing out your option contracts. "** + +Wait. A. Mother. Fucking. Second. + +***"...it may make sense to close out the trades early to manage risk or free up capital for new opportunities..."*** + +Well, I think we just stumbled upon something that was in front of our eyes the whole time. + +***Citadel is likely closing out as many positions as it can in order to liquify assets so it has more cash in hand.*** + +And if they're willing to liquify a meager \~30k in options, it looks like MAY BE\* liquifying basically fucking everything they have that isn't critical to their operations. (MY OPINION, PURE SPECULATION) + +&#x200B; + +Part 3.1 TLDR: 3.0 Still stands, also Shitadel looks like it's 300% fuk + +&#x200B; + +# PART 4 - CONCLUSION + +Something big is happening, but RBC is fine as far as we can tell with the information on hand. + +Expect another post from me within a few days tackling another bullshit lazy dd. + +**This kind of misinformation is FUD** **AND NEEDS TO BE DESTROYED**, as explained in another post I made here: [Blackrock & 4D Chess](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msez57/blackrock_4d_chess/) + +*Q: Why is it FUD?* **A: Because people start rallying behind the idea that monday we're going to see big banks like RBC start to crumble and trigger the MOASS etc etc.** Inevitably this does not happen and people are let down. Guess what? The MOASS will fucking happen when it happens. + +&#x200B; + +[Sit back, relax. You waited xx years for this moment you can wait a few more days\/weeks\/months. Stop setting expectations for this Monday, or 4\/20 or ANY day. The longer this goes on the more shorts CuckFunds put out there and the harder we blow the fucking ozone into oblivion on our way to 🌙](https://preview.redd.it/be7ys9ibpyt61.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=b07ba514283e279bb2fc1ccd2c23e05687ccf597) + +&#x200B; + +Have a great Sunday! -Rugby + +🐵🍌💎🙌🚀🌙 + +\----------------------------------------- + +DATES=FUD [Blackrock & 4D Chess](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msez57/blackrock_4d_chess/) + +DD POLICE ep.1 [SEC Rule 15c3-3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtl77t/dd_police_ep_1_sec_rule_15c33/) +New to this sub and I have a little bit of an extraordinary situation on hands. + +I’m a 28 y/o (m) living in the Netherlands. At this point due to poor financial upbringing and consequently very poor financial decisions, I have no savings. I did pay off all my debts, so I’m basically at 0. + +Now the extraordinary part; I have someone close to me willing to give me 500k euro to invest in my financial freedom. My ultimate financial goal in life is to be financially free, meaning that my passive income covers my expenses. + +I have a full time job covering my expenses currently, so this 500k is available to invest completely. + +Unfortunately due to my poor financial upbringing, I have no idea where to start. I have no need for the money short term, all I want is to make best use of this extraordinary opportunity that has been presented to me and set myself and my family up for future financial freedom. + +My question to you is; +Where do I start? What are good long term investments? Compound interest? Stock investments? Real estate? + +Where should I educate myself? At the moment I don’t know where to start and I’m afraid to make wrong decisions and regret these afterwards. + +Thank you for reading and your suggestions in advance. +Any thoughts on how different is the Aus market compared to NZ? I have been wondering why/why not this could happen to us. +[https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/07/kiwis-tears-as-new-zealand-house-prices-plunge/](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/07/kiwis-tears-as-new-zealand-house-prices-plunge/) +Something has become clear to me; looking at $GME's reaction to a 100,000 share buy in by RC : + +The SHF can spoof, ladder attack, sell zero sum orders, borrow from ETFs and pension funds, short with out locates and fail to deliver and probably a dozen other tactics to drive price down. + +Banks and brokers don't know the difference in shares when we buy them. + +But as soon as a share gets sent to Computershare it has to have a locate. It stops being Schrodinger's share. It is now real and can not be fucked with. This is the power of DRS. + +Likewise, when one of the mega whales like RC buys in and files his 13f, because the shares have to be registered, they also become real, and solid and unfuckwithable. + +This is why retail can't seem to affect price either with buying or options. We just don't have the juice to make the sales 'official' + +Only when we DRS can our shares be counted as real and taken out of the SHF's hall of mirrors rehypothication funhouse. +. +. +. +Goddamnit. He just tweeted again didn't he. Guess this post is going to get buried. 🤣 +Hello! I am wanting to build a real estate investment portfolio that generates $5k/mo or more in net profits. I know there are an almost infinite # of ways to get there, but I was hoping to hear from people who are actually doing it, how you do it! + +How many units spread across how many properties? What was your initial start up costs vs monthly expenses? How much do you owe, how much value in your properties? Is it through a lot of smaller, low income properties, or 1 or 2 high value properties? Are you using a management company or not, and if so, how much are they taking per unit/per property? + +In other words, can you show us "the math" on how you clear $5k or more each month? I think it will be fascinating to see all of the different answers. + +Appreciate any and all insights! +Edit: Really good to see people calling bullshit on this, and that they're not swayed. Thanks for the awards but use the money on the stock instead! + +It's been 9 months. Not only do they make us question our beliefs in the stock; they make us question our beliefs in ourselves - for investing in the first place; for being stuck in a "cult", for valuing financial information from people on *Reddit*. + +Tons of people have said it before: This is psychological warfare. I've understood it before, but I didn't realise how important of a tactic it is until now. It's emotionally draining for those of us who are already insecure about our values and beliefs. The smartest of you have been confident about this choice for months now, while some people like me still lurk around, trying to understand a morsel of all the fantastic and hard researched knowledge is passed around here + +Either way, I'm not going anywhere. 🚀 + +Edit 2: This gained way more traction than what I expected. Just wanna say I appreciate y'all. And I'm sorry if this post is just a repeat of an overused message. Mods have my blessing to remove it if it counts as spam. +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l1SwBdbBCo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l1SwBdbBCo) + +&#x200B; + +Are we in a bubble when a 10 year old is on youtube talking about ETFs +I haven't traded the wheel since few months ago, I'm going to allocate some capital for it in the next few weeks, here's my small list of stocks under 100$ for now: + +- AMD +- UBER +- TWTR + +Please share your favourite stocks and maybe some stocks to avoid? + +Together, we earn better 💪 🐢 🚀 +HI, I recently won a settlement ($840K), and sat down to meet with a financial advisor last week to discuss the best ways to invest that money and make it last. I told her I planned to buy a house and to gift my parents money (my dad is getting antsy, as he has plans to use the money soon), so that would bring me down to around $600K. She advised to invest into a mutual fund (moderately) and that I'd get around $2K a month off of that. + +She also told me to possibly gift my parents less, as this would ultimately affect how much I'd get back a month if I planned to make this money last for a long time. Did she give me solid advice/good plan? Or should I see another advisor/do other things to maximize my money? + +Edit: I lost my leg in a work accident, Incase this changes your strategy or advice for me. +My dad is about to come into some money, possibly 100k+. I'm telling him he needs to have a good strategy to invest it to start his healthy retirement. + +I'm thinking multi family real estate or some franchise. What are y'all thoughts on how i can properly help him. Since we have a multi family property already, that i manage. + +Some back info, he's a Mexican immigrant has never had a lot of money but I want to set him off on a good foundation. This can change my parents lives but I want to do it the right way. Any thoughts, thank you! + +Edit: so my dad has to live off this money. Hence why I'm wanting to invest in real estate so that it has some cash flow and a physical asset. + +Edit 2: For those saying it's his money, plz understand were Mexican immigrants, I'm the only fluent English speaker in the family. My parents risked everything coming here and leaving a good life in Mexico. He's provided me everything and has trust in me to invest this money for him. I need to set it up where it brings a monthly return for HIM. So i would appreciate advice how best to do that for him to take care of my viejito (old man) +I've noticed there's a big increase in fake real estate listings on Domain recently. + +When I enquire about the property, they tell me it's no longer available then start trying to sell new developments to me. + +I've reported dozens of these properties to Domain but nothing ever happens. Some of the fake properties have been listed for sale for close to a year. + +Surely this sort of thing is a risk to Domain. Why would they allow it to continue? +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Bad news for $NIO + +[https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tesla-model-3-sedan-aces-all-of-u-s-safety-agency-s-crash-tests-1.1140533](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tesla-model-3-sedan-aces-all-of-u-s-safety-agency-s-crash-tests-1.1140533) +It seems that the margins are crazy slim. I'm under contract on my first house that's gonna rent for $1.5k. The PM company is gonna take 10%, so $150 a month. Is it me or does that seem like crazy slim margins? + +I feel like with calls, having to collect rent, removing nonsense from the property, etc that that work is not worth $150 a month and it doesn't seem that easy to scale since properties are split up across the city. Think about it, just my communication with the firm has taken a few hours, which is already $150 of someone's time. I understand they take a cut from repairs but still seems like slim margins. + +Anyone from the property management industry want to share some stories? +[https://i.imgur.com/DxM4SwP.png](https://i.imgur.com/DxM4SwP.png) + +I've borrowed and dumbed down this chart from [this savant's post](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l97jbo/gamestop_big_picture_market_mechanics/). + +As the free-flowing stock dries up (due to ppl buying and holding), the volatility increases. It becomes easier and easier to move the needle with less money. As long as you keep holding and buying, the volatility will only increase. **Expect huge swings in the next few days.** + +Hedge funds know this. They tanked the stock this morning. Right now they intentionally leveling the demand to keep the stock price stable; to make it look like the ride is over. + +HOWEVER + +The short float is still high, and the [volume has been steadily decreasing](https://i.imgur.com/eRH3S2b.png). + +Furthermore, [institutional ownership](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/institutional-holdings) only picked up about 12m shares, and some of those went to institutions that were long not short. Now maybe I'm misreading this, or maybe they're fudging the data, but I just don't see how the shorts covered their position with this measly volume. + +|ACTIVE POSITIONS|HOLDERS|SHARES| +|:-|:-|:-| +|New positions|46|12,880,726| +|Sold out positions|34|3,412,841| + +\-- + +Keep in mind the VW squeeze happened with far less short-interest than is currently in GME. The main problem is that retail investors, unlike huge firms, can't vacuum up all the supply fast enough, which enables the hf to slowly wiggle their way out buying up paper hands. They've likely exited their worst short positions and reshorted at a better price. + +Some people are saying the squeeze might be more of a slow gradual upward pressure, rather than a sudden event. The truth is that the hedge funds are walking on a tightrope, and this stock is still extremely volatile. Any big movements in demand can drastically impact the price. + +\------ + +Disclaimer: I am a poker player, not a day trader. In poker, this is what we call an "implied odds play". The risk is relatively small for us bulls (relative to the short position), but the expected value is potentially huge if it works. But these plays are still risky despite being +EV. **You have to be prepared to ride the swings and embrace the variance.** + +*This is pure, uneducated speculation, not financial advice.* + +**TL/DR: Grit your teeth and brace for swings. Shit's about to get nuts.** + +^(Edit: deleted the thing about being put on the short restriction list \[I screwed up the dates\], and added the institutional ownership thing) + Notes from FM's press briefing + +Focus is on agriculture, rural, casual and migrant labour, self employed + +Context + +* 3 cr farmers have availed of moratorum +* Farm loan interest subvention extended to May 31 +* Kisan credit cards with 25,000 cr loan limit +* 63 lk farm loans disbursed +* 11,000 cr to states disaster response funds +* These can be used for migrant workers +* 10,000 cr spent via mrngea for migrant workers +* Work offered to 2.33 cr seekers under mnrgea on most days in May + +Announcements + +1. State govts have estimated about 8 cr migrant workers; GOI would take the expense of providing free food grains for 2 months; state govts to implement +2. One nation, one ration card - 83% coverage by Aug 20, 100% by Mar '21 +3. PMAY extended to affordable rental acco for migrant workers - PPP with conceession +4. Shishu Mudra loans in good standing, including moratorium, would have interest subvention of 2% for 1 year +5. Street vendors - 5000 cr special credit facility with easy access - estimated for 50 lac vendors - initial working capital upto 10,000 +6. Further incentives for street vendors accepting digital payments - could help them with future credit access +7. 6000 cr funds in tribal welfare funds to be spent for afforestation and plantation, forest management, etc. - money is available and is being spent on approved projects +8. May 2017 credit linked subsidy scheme extended to Mar 2021 - for housing for middle class - another 2.5 lac families could benefit - 6 lac to 18 lac is annual income limit +9. 30K cr additional emergency working capital fund through NABARD - usuall spend is 90K crore, 30K cr is additional. RRB and RCB would use the credit - could benefit 3 cr farmers +10. 2 lac crore concessional credit for 2.5 cr farmers who don't yet have Kisan credit card; fishermen and animal husbandry farmers would also be part of this + +Labour code + +Below are part of the labour code - tabled in the parliament - 44 laws to 4 codes + +* National floor wage being suggested to address disparity in minimum wage across states +* A definition of inter-state migrant workers +* Extension of ESIC benefits to all district... +* Extension of social security measures to gig workers +* All options to be open for women - including night work with safety measures +* Portability of benefits across the nation +* Appointment letters for all workers +I'm in software development. I'm burnt out to the point I'm not even able to sound enthusiastic in interviews, I'm cynical and struggle to respond to questions I would have easily nailed in my previous job search. Summer is coming and I'm thinking about travelling for three months, then coming back and looking for another role. + +Have you quit your job thinking "yah, she'll be right" and lined up another job soon after you started looking again? + +There will always be a need for someone who can write software anyway. Every time I've been laid off, I was able to land something within weeks afterwards (in the UK, pre-COVID), always with more money than in my previous role. A lot of the concerns I've been reading on Reddit and career sites about quitting your job without another lined up haven't applied to me so far but there's a first time for everything. + +Edit: Should I take on faith they won't attempt to lowball me when I'm back, because they should know I will just use the offer as a springboard to go somewhere else later? +All I have heard is that repo and reverse repo loans mean nothing to shorted stocks or could not find any correlation to why these loans have exploded recently. I have included the section of the report and the link. Maybe nothing. Maybe something. + +This is taken from the US repo market fact sheet. Link included. + +The repo markets allow investors to manage excess cash balances safely and efficiently. Dealers also benefit from significantly reduced funding costs, the capacity to finance long positions in securities and the ability to borrow securities to cover short positions to satisfy client needs. Long holders of securities can also gain incremental returns by engaging in repo transactions with cash investors for securities they own but have no immediate need to sell. + +Link. https://www.sifma.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2021-US-Repo-Fact-Sheet.pdf +I recently wrote this program that analyzes reddit sentiment annalysis of reddit about different companies using vader. I have also implemented some parameters to prevent manipulation such as minimum comment upvotes, one comment per user per symbol, ignore user comment/posts completely etc. + +It might be helpful to you guys: + +[https://github.com/asad70/reddit-sentiment-analysis](https://github.com/asad70/reddit-sentiment-analysis) + +&#x200B; + +My other algo-trading projects: + +[wallstreetbets-sentiment-analysis](https://github.com/asad70/wallstreetbets-sentiment-analysis) + +[stock-news-sentiment-analysis](https://github.com/asad70/stock-news-sentiment-analysis) + +[Insider-Trading](https://github.com/asad70/Insider-Trading) This program extracts insider trading data from the sec website and stores it in excel file for the specified time frame. + +You guys are free to use any of these in your project. I hope the post isn't against this sub rules. +Deutsche Bank is the first major bank to forecast a US recession, albeit a "mild" one. "We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote. + +The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy. + +Thirty-eight percent of small US business owners say inflation is their biggest concern, twice as many as the second place “supply chain disruptions” (19%) and well above Covid-19 (13%) and labor shortages (13%). + +In case of recession, where should one put his money? +I hope this is the correct forum to post and I've used the search feature as well. I'm going to create a new thread. Sorry about that. + +&#x200B; + +It looks like I will exceed the limits to be able to contribute to a ROTH this year. I may just sneak in and be able to contribute a $1,000 bucks. + +&#x200B; + +So, how does a Back Door Roth really work? + +&#x200B; + +These are the accounts I have: + +I have a taxable brokerage account. + +I have a Roth IRA Account with a broker + +My wife has a ROTH IRA with same broker + +I have a Schwab fun money account + +I have a 401K with my employer which I max out + +I have a checking Account + +I do not have a traditional or regular IRA I guess you would say. + +&#x200B; + +So what do I do? Do I open up a traditional IRA and do not fund it. Once that is open, do I transfer the 6k into that account. As soon as that 6K hits the Traditional IRA, I move the funds immediately into my Roth? Simple as that? What happens if the transfer from Traditional IRA to ROTH did not happen and took an extra day and funds sat in the traditional for a couple of days? + +And then, do I keep the traditional IRA open and emtpy of money and do the same thing next year if I need to? + +And can I contribute more than 6K this way? A coworker who wasn't totally sure thought that on the initial time of doing this, you could contribute a much larger amount. Not sure about that though. + +&#x200B; + +Finally, what is a Mega Back Door? + +&#x200B; + +Thank you for your help. +Hello everyone, + +We are a couple of non-EU citizens in our mid-30's with a baby, currently living in Germany. We are both engineers with masters, multilingual (EN,FR,ES,DE) with +5 years experience in project management/ technical sales in the energy sector. Both with permanent resident permit allowing us to work anywhere in the EU. + +During the peak of the pandemic we realized how alone we are in this country, therefore we have been think to move to Spain given the fact that my partners' siblings and best friends are living there. +This is intended to be a plan on a mid-term basis given the current general situation. + +I am not really aware of what could be our financial situation in Spain therefore I would like to have your feedback on it. Additionally we are aware of the unemployment rates and how there is a whole generation struggling since the 2008 economic crisis now facing corona crisis. + +Our current household income is around 125k€, which means approximately 75k€ net ( 40% goes to the tax office and to social charges). + +1. What can we expect to earn in Spain given our background and experience? + +2. How different are job conditions in Spain compared to Germany? + +3. How difficult is to land a permanent position for people in our age range 30-40? + +Thank you for your feedback! +If you were hoping to buy in \~2 years? I know that the general recommendation is to retain in a high yield savings account; however, if home prices keep going up, the downpayment may be useless and may be better to forgo home buying all together and invest your disposable income instead. + +Keeping the funds invested is risky if home prices do slightly correct, which would have negative consequences on the investment portfolio. On the other hand, keeping it in a savings account for a couple years only to realize you're being priced out faster than you can save will result in lost investment opportunity. +On December 29th, 2021 Vanguard Target Retirement Funds all dropped in share price by as much as 14% in a single day. I've heard from a ton of investors who are really confused about it, so this is what happened, how it impacts those who hold these funds, and why it happened. + +# Summary + + * The share price of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds dropped by as much as 14% on 12/29/2021 + * The underlying funds remained flat on that day + * The cause was a large capital gains payout + * Investors’ total investment value wasn’t impacted + * This may impact investors taxes if the fund is held in a taxable account + * Takeaways are to follow investing best practices like enabling dividend reinvestment and prioritizing tax-advantaged accounts + +# What Happened? + +If you own a Vanguard Target Retirement Fund and you looked at your returns after 12/29/2021 you likely saw a huge drop in the share price. For example, here’s [a screenshot of my brokerage account showing the daily return of the fund VFIFX showing an 11.34% drop](https://imgur.com/a/Q41hWe7). + +This fund is made up of just [five underlying funds](https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vfifx): + +1. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares +2. Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares +3. Vanguard Total Bond Market II Index Fund Investor Shares +4. Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Investor Shares 1 +5. Vanguard Total International Bond II Index Fund + +A target date fund is just a “fund of funds” so it should behave as a weighted average of the underlying funds. But if we look at [how those funds fared on the same day](https://imgur.com/a/lnLWtYx), they were all almost perfectly flat, while the target date fund had a huge share price drop. + +If the underlying funds were flat, why did the target date fund see a huge share price drop? It was caused by a huge capital gain payout. Basically, fund owners were all paid a large chunk of cash and the share price was lowered to reflect that payment. + +# An Example of Why This Doesn’t Impact Investment Value + +To illustrate this, remember that the growth of your investment value in a mutual fund is comprised of two parts: + +1. Share Price +2. Dividends & Capital Gains + +Mutual funds own a bunch of stocks, bonds or other funds. As time goes on, those underlying investments pay dividends and capital gains. The mutual fund takes that cash and internally reinvests it, buying more investments. The value of all those internal dividends and investments is reflected in the share price. Then on a fixed schedule it pays out the accumulated value of the dividends. Vanguard’s Target Retirement Funds pay out these annually as shown on [their distribution page](https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/distributions/vfifx). + +Imagine an investor named Ashley who owns 100 shares of fund ABCDX and which has a share price of $10. + +* Ashley’s investment value = 100 shares X $10/share = **$1,000** + +ABCDX does a capital gain payout of $1 per share. That means for each share owned, Ashley gets $1 in cash. To account for that payout, the share price drops by $1 per share to $9. Now let’s look at Ashley’s situation: + +* Ashley’s investment value after capital gain distribution = 100 shares X $9/share + $100 cash = **$1,000** + +So you can see it didn’t actually cost Ashley any money, rather just transferred share price to cash. But, as a good investor, Ashley doesn’t want the cash right now. She has automatic dividend reinvestment turned on, so that cash is immediately put to use to buy more shares at the new $9 price. $100 can buy 11.1 shares at that price. So after her dividend reinvestment this is Ashley’s situation: + +* Ashley’s investment value after dividend reinvestment: 111.1 shares X $9/share = **$1,000** + +# What This Looks Like in Real Life + +[Here’s a look at my actual Vanguard brokerage account](https://imgur.com/a/ahA3lXh) which is invested in VFIFX. You can see the capital gains and dividend payouts that are immediately reinvested. + +# What tax impact does this have? + +There are two main categories of investment accounts: + +* Tax advantaged retirement accounts (e.g. IRAs, 401ks, 403bs, etc) +* Regular taxable brokerage accounts + +If you hold these funds in a tax advantaged retirement account, this capital gains payout has zero tax impact on you. That’s because tax advantaged accounts aren’t tax on gains or distributions along the way. They’re only taxed on your income at the beginning (in the case of Roth accounts) or the withdrawals at the ends (in the case of Traditional accounts). + +If you hold these funds in a regular/taxable brokerage account, this will impact your taxes. Early in 2022 you’ll receive a 1099-DIV tax form that reports your dividends and capital gains distributions for the year. [Here’s a look at mine from 2020](https://imgur.com/a/bv3WuXc). Note that it only shows $1.40 in capital gains for 2020. + +When I receive my 2021 1099-DIV it will show a much bigger number in the capital gain box. I will owe tax on that gain for 2021, but at the lower long term capital gain rate. Since my fund actually DID go up in value that much I could simply sell some of my shares to cover that tax burden. Additionally, since that’s an actual gain it’s going to be due one day when you sell your investment. Getting taxed sooner rather than later represents a slight tax inefficiency, but generally doesn’t have a large impact on the long term growth of your investment. + +# Why did this happen? + +If you look at the [distributions page for a target retirement fund](https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/distributions/vfifx), you’ll see it pays out distributions annually. For VFIFX, in 2020 there was a $0.0184 per share long term capital gain distribution, or about 0.04%. In 2021 that same distribution was $4.8325 or 10.3%. + +That’s over a 250X increase year over year in long term capital gains distributions. That huge distribution is why we saw the share price tank on 12/29/2021 to account for that payout. + +That said, the “why” is a little harder to answer. I called Vanguard to ask them and wasn’t satisfied with their answer. They said the reasons are: + +* Underlying investments did far better +* Securities turned over +* Bonds matured, replaced + +The “investments did better” answer is basically nonsense. Sure 2021 was a great year for the market, but so was 2020. And it certainly doesn’t explain a 250X increase. “Securities turned over” is likely the reason, but that really doesn’t get at the heart of “why”. + +My theory is that there was some big internal churn for some reason. i.e. Let’s say a huge company that uses Vanguard for their 401ks wanted to switch funds or leave Vanguard or something. To cash them out, Vanguard would have to sell a huge chunk of the underlying funds in order to fund those withdrawals. Those sales may have triggered the capitals gains distributions we see here. But truth be told, that theory is speculation and I haven’t been able to get a straight answer from anything Vanguard provides. If anyone knows, please share! + +# What do to + +So this wasn’t actually a crash, but there are still some best practice takeaways here: + +1. Don’t freak out – One of the most important traits of a successful investor is the ability to “stay the course”. This crash happened to just be an accounting detail, but one day we’ll see a 10% and beyond crash of the market. Staying with your investment strategy is how you win long term. +2. Dividend reinvestment – Make sure dividend reinvestment is turned on. Otherwise, big distributions like this will end up as cash dragging down the growth of your portfolio. +3. Prioritize tax advantaged accounts – If your investments are held in a tax-advantaged retirement account with dividend reinvestment turned on, you can sleep right through this entire article because it doesn’t impact you at all. Getting as much of your investments into these accounts is one of the best ways to maximize your returns. +4. Consider ETFs – I’m a big fan of target date index funds due to their diversification and ultimate simplicity, but this type of surprise and murkily explained distribution may certainly be a cause for concern in a taxable account. ETFs don’t have this issue which is one of the reasons they’re so quickly gaining in popularity. Although at the moment, I’m not aware of a target date ETF, so you would have to manage your asset allocation yourself in something like a three fund portfolio. +5. Follow the two rules – At the end of the day the impact of this entire post barely moves the needle on any investment account. If you want to become more wealthy follow these two important rules: 1.) Live below your means and 2.) Invest early and often. That’s what’s gonna make you rich, not optimizing how you realize capital gains. +**Disclamer**: This isn’t a fear mongering post about the virus itself. To put it into perspective the Swine Flu epidemic of 2009 has over 110k confirmed cases and close to 4000 deaths in the US alone yet many people don’t even remember that. But that’s for a different discussion in a different sub. + +I’m currently in Shanghai now, from my observation people in the West are not spending enough time talking about how devastating this virus has been to the Chinese economy and its certain global ramifications. + +Let’s take the city of Shanghai for example. It’s not one of the more heavily impacted cities, it’s not quarantined and people can mostly come and go freely. Many businesses are still open, from restaurants to malls. + +However for the first time ever I saw an Apple store with more employees than customers, and an open Starbucks with absolutely zero customers inside. The streets on a Saturday afternoon were about as empty as it would be at midnight on a regular weekday. All of this is happening during what’s supposed to be the busiest week for consumer spendings in China. + +The worst part is this doesn’t seem like it will change any time soon. Shanghai just announced that they will extend the CNY holidays by another week and people will like remain fearful for the coming weeks, if not months if we don’t see a dramatic turnaround of the virus situation. + +What this means is that any Western company that relies significantly on China for revenue would see their first quarter earning absolutely *crushed*, especially considering their forecasts were done with the assumption of this quarter being the best quarter of the year. For example I’m foreseeing Apple miss their Greater China’s revenue by as much as 50% this quarter, and it would be even worse for companies like GM, Ford and the airlines. I’m not sure if it’s widely known, but China is GM’s largest market by revenue and Ford’s 2nd largest. + +Further more this will impact the global manufacturing and supply chain significantly. I don’t know enough to model out a detailed scenario but my gut feeling tells me a prolonged manufacturing shutdown across major Chinese cities would be more than a little disruptive in that regard. + +I’m discounting the impact of the virus if it were spread to other countries in any significant numbers, but even considering the situation in China alone it’s extremely worrying. + +One final point is due to the significantly reduced traveling, China’s energy demand for this quarter would also be drastically reduced. It will likely impact global energy/oil prices and cause even further ripple effects. + +**Edit**: for people tell me how CNY in Shanghai should make the city a ghost town... Yes a few million migrant workers (流动人口), leave town during this time, but there are still ~~10M~~ 15M local residents left. For them this is a week of shopping, 串门(visiting friends), taking their kids to places since it’s also winter break, etc. I grew up in this city and no, people don’t just spend a whole week of national holidays at home. + +But yes... some businesses would be closed until 初四, and it may impact local expats’ favorite bars and clubs... + +**Edit 2**: Some people are missing the point. No I’m not saying the 2% drop we had so far is “The Dip”, that’s just normal fluctuation. No I’m not saying you should sell everything because unless the world is ending (in which case you wouldn’t worry about your stocks), the market will bounce back. Hell it bounces back after 2008 stronger than ever. But at this point nobody knows just exactly how bad the damage would be and how long it would last, so it *will* be rocky in the short to medium term. No you don’t have to react but you also shouldn’t be surprised if the market does. + +**Edit 3**: Jesus Christ people before you tell me how people tend to stay home and do nothing for Chinese New Year, I've spent 20+ CNY here as a local and that's just wrong. Last year people spent [$150B USD](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-10/china-lunar-new-year-holiday-retail-catering-sales-up-8-5-cctv) during CNY in consumer spendings. Chinese movie box office during the six days of CNY in 2019 [reached $860M USD](https://variety.com/2019/film/news/piracy-wandering-earth-chinese-new-year-1203138142/), which is probably more than any weekly box office number from the U.S. in all the history of Hollywood, but this year all movie theaters are closed due to the virus. The list goes on an on. +As someone with no kids, its ridiculous that employer is asking for 13 out of 20 annual leave days to be used duting end of year shutdown (19th Dec to 6th Jan). Everything is expensive and full as everyone is on holiday. + +Anyone had success negotiating? +It seems like there are a decent amount of younger people on here (College/High School Age) more and more which is great! As a 26 y/o who has been on the path for 5 years now I wanted to provide some tips for younger people as they begin this journey. I don't have the experience of people who have FIRE'd per se, but I think I can help explain what worked for me. + +1. Learns the basics + +Personal finance and investing is an awesome thing to get into because you can dig as deep into it as you want or stay at the surface level. There is a reason why some of the smartest investing minds in the world (Warren Buffett) read for hours on end. The finance world evolves, markets change, and the way people behave with money moves around. With that being said, you need to learn the basics. What are the basics? + +“Spend less than you make, invest the difference” + +Spend – Create a budget. Fixed expenses and then fun money. + +Make – Get a job that allows you to save a little bit of cash + +Invest – Dollar Cost Average, 401k, Roth IRA, brokerage account, withdrawal rates. + +It will be easy to go down a rabbit hole when reading about personal finance to the point where it might even intimidate you. Learn the basics and get started. There are plenty of free online resources that will help you understand best practices like which % of your budget towards certain items and how to invest. You have some time to iron out the details. The worst thing you can do is not start. + +2. Keep it simple: Index Funds + +Index funds. Index Funds. Index Funds. + +I don’t know how else to say this but I would recommend you start off with index funds. I know it isn’t what /r/stocks or /r/wallstreetbets is going to tell you but index funds will allow you to get a piece of the pie without the risk of individual stocks. The worst thing that could happen to you is you throw a grand in a stock based on a tip on Reddit and you get wiped out to the point where you don’t even want to invest in the market anymore. + +Hey competitiveduck, that is great but how do I avoid the FOMO of all these tech gains? + +Understand that cycles happen. “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”. Look into the top 10 companies by market cap for each decade. Companies come and go. I am not anti-stock at all. I recommend that people play around with stocks to avoid FOMO but only once they have enough in index funds to where compound interest takes over. I didn’t buy a single share of stock until I had >100k invested in index funds and even now it is a small % of my larger portfolio. + +3. Get the money + +Get the money. You have to be selfish in your career at this point when your expenses are fairly low and you don’t have the responsibilities of a family. Change cities, change jobs, change companies. Get money. If you are all about starting a low-level job in a company with the idea that in 30 years you might be the CEO great, but there is only 1 CEO job for a reason. Maximize earnings in your 20s as much as you can, invest, and wait. If you don’t believe me, look up videos or pictures of what happens at 65 based on when you start investing. The difference in net worth is staggering. Get money. + +4. It easiest to compare yourself to others post-college + +I’m not sure there will ever be a time in your life where it is easiest to feel bad about yourself than right after college. You go from everybody playing the same game in college to now everybody is in separate leagues and playing a different sport. You have a friend in law school in debt up to their ass, you have a friend crushing it at Google, you have a friend struggling to figure things out and there might be you just hoping to get enough money for guac at Chipotle. Understand that you don’t need to be anywhere else than where YOU think you need to be. Life tends to even itself out. + +“Comparison is the thief of joy” + +5. Keep in touch with friends and take care of your body + +To echo on the last point, good friends are hard to come by the older you get. Try and keep in touch with them as much as possible and plan trips to see them. Some of my best friends still are my college friends. Use them as a base but don’t be afraid to get out of your comfort zone and explore new people. + +In regard to staying in shape, there is no sense in retiring early if your body isn’t able to do things you want to do. Plain and simple. + +6. Do what works for you, not what works in a spreadsheet + +You are going to hear about all the ways you can tinker with your investments or take on debt and theoretically it works in a spreadsheet, but spreadsheets aren’t rooted in reality. Some of these include how it is easier to put less than 20% down on a house because interest rates are so low and invest the difference, or how you should invest 80% of your paycheck to tap into investing. Morgan Housel has a way of investing and I think it is great in that you should invest in a way that “helps you sleep at night” and in a way that you can do it consistently for decades. Do what works for you. + +7. This isn’t a get rich quick scheme + +Understand the game that you are playing. Investing Twitter and TV networks react to daily moves in the market. You aren’t in it for the short term, you are in it for the long term. If you are in your early 20’s you probably have a 30-40-year time horizon. Think of all the crazy world events that have happened in the last 30-40 years alone. COVID, 08 Financial Crisis, Iraq War, 9/11, Dot Com Crash, and then the 1987 Market Crash. All of those “world is ending” type events have led to a 9.42% average return before inflation. To tap into the power of compound interest you need to stay in the market for a long period of time. + +“Interrupting a favorable power law is the worst mistake you can make as an investor.” – Naval + +8. Read the top posts on this subreddit but be aware of survivorship bias + +The fact that you are in this subreddit is a great start. Use the resources in the wiki to learn about investment options and what works for other people. Learn about people who have achieved FIRE and how they got there. Most of the time it is a bumpy road with kids, large one-off expenses, buying a house, changing careers, etc. Like the stock market, it is rarely a smooth ride. However, there is a lot of survivorship bias in here about people who have achieved FIRE. For every person who has achieved it, there are probably 10 who have given up, ruined a relationship, or became miserable due to extreme saving. Please understand that this is a grind and if you aren’t happy now with the hopes of being happy 30 years ago, I’d advise you to take a step back and read the below post. It is essential reading. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/58j8pc/build\_the\_life\_you\_want\_then\_save\_for\_it/?utm\_source=reddit&utm\_medium=usertext&utm\_name=financialindependence&utm\_content=t5\_2t34z](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/58j8pc/build_the_life_you_want_then_save_for_it/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=financialindependence&utm_content=t5_2t34z) + +Best of luck on this adventure. It is a challenge but one that is rewarding with time. This is a great community of people. +Read it and weep, folks + +* * * + +TORONTO, Dec. 03, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (“RioCan” or the “Trust”) (TSX: REI.UN) announced a reduction of RioCan’s monthly distribution to unitholders from $0.12 per unit to $0.08 per unit, or from $1.44 to $0.96 on an annualized basis. RioCan’s Board of Trustees has determined the reduction is appropriate given ongoing uncertainty as a result of the pandemic. This decrease will be effective for the Trust’s January 2021 distribution, payable in February 2021. + +https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/03/2139556/0/en/RioCan-Real-Estate-Investment-Trust-Announces-One-third-Reduction-in-Distributions-to-Unitholders.html +Web scraping is a super underutilized tool that is very simple to get into and extremely useful. + +I think that algotrading is one of the areas where it could be most useful, because having a system that can act on data in real time is definitely paramount in this space. + +&#x200B; + +Because this is the exact kind of thing I do for work, I decided to put something together to show you guys how it could be done for your own purposes. [This is a very simple example](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rONhdonaWUo&t=), but what you do with the data after you have it is really up to you. You can insert it straight down a data processing pipeline that informs your trading system or insert it directly into a trading system for updated decision making. + +As well, you could output and collect the data into csv files or into SQL dbs to later do some analysis with. The options are truly endless. + +&#x200B; + +If this ends up being something that is useful to you guys in here, then I would definitely be more than happy to create more content like this to show a few more steps of how I have built some automated trading systems for clients in the past. + +&#x200B; + +Hope you like it and find it useful :) +I’ve had to do this before and I actually did it again today. I had about $40 in coins and needed food and gas. I went early while it wasn’t busy, bought a $10 Kroger gift card and my food then used the self checkout. I could then use my gift card at the gas pump for fuel and in the end save myself about $2-3 necessary dollars going to waste with coin star. +What is Ultra Protocol? + +Ultra Protocol is an innovative blockchain-driven company seeking to redefine the standards of education, security and verification within decentralized finance. + +Recent AMA News + +[Click here to view the latest AMA](https://youtu.be/qvfDbMu8Ndk) + +Website Update + +* Visit [https://ultraprotocol.io/](https://ultraprotocol.io/) and check out our fresh new look +* Read our new [Whitepaper](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DScZaxTSPW2AAXan_Rqu9El0wy41cvqV/view?usp=sharing) +* Explore our interactive [Roadmap](https://ultraprotocol.io/roadmap.html) +* Bring any questions to our [Help Center](https://help.ultraprotocol.io/en/) + +Upcoming Exchange Listings + +* CoinStore +* ProBit +* Bitmart + +A wallet listing with StarShip is also currently in the works. + +About UltraSafe Token + +* 8% Tax, of which: +* 4% to liquidity +* 4% redistributed to current holders +* Double-audited through [Certik](https://www.certik.org/projects/ultrasafe) and [Solidity Finance](https://solidity.finance/audits/UltraSafe/) + +Planned Products + +* Multi-chain Launchpad +* Dex +* Merch Store +* Multi-chain Wallet +* Ultra Pay +* NFT Marketplace + +A new partnership will be announced on Friday. +I was watching a TV show yesterday and some of the main-ish characters inherited $10M and they got so excited and go a bit crazy and my gut reaction was honestly thinking "but it's only $10M, it's just not that much". + +I can't be the only one who's brain has been recalibrated over the last few months, whether we notice it or not. For me this is another grain of proof we are ready to hodl all the way through big big numbers. +You can view WSB Stats [here](http://wsb.gold/public/dashboard/e65fcfcb-70a4-4d86-b7fb-888057c67881). + +Remember - **follow the rules located on the sidebar**. +Reposting my DFV tweet theory from 1 year ago, before DRS was widely accepted. + +[Roaring Kitty posted this meme on June 14, 2021:](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1404468676493971458?s=20&t=CNjhEkRM6jMFnBvAK_U5yw) + +https://preview.redd.it/4uj1dmn0gur91.png?width=523&format=png&auto=webp&s=487a6d612414c7be0b546b606abf14e894b68726 + +What a strange and random thing. What's the message? Why these companies? + +Let's review: + +[Jet Blue](https://preview.redd.it/ycxta4pngur91.png?width=527&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f91d8dcb05130011fb17aefd0d1b7f91ee1e730) + +[Carnival](https://preview.redd.it/0f8wjggqgur91.png?width=528&format=png&auto=webp&s=83af8acb9506e27cbd5266e1149f3cfabf8149ad) + +[Apple](https://preview.redd.it/p56utq3sgur91.png?width=534&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cfadfcb562281dd21307cbdbd7b1fd781c1f272) + +[Blockbuster](https://preview.redd.it/u9ofduttgur91.png?width=521&format=png&auto=webp&s=97b7c41255d84df1cfe60eab2b01a30451bb9386) + +What? This dude is just impatiently in some line? Is it just meant to be funny? WTF Roaring Kitty! + +Don't see it? + +Neither did I, before a lot of digging. + +I'm going to run through this for you. + +Maybe sit down. + +JET BLUE: + +https://preview.redd.it/plmi3w80hur91.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc4f6ac8b4ffab9d544181329f93cee0f5614b00 + +CARNIVAL CRUISE: + +https://preview.redd.it/7kazoun1hur91.png?width=608&format=png&auto=webp&s=33ffeead5422c9e0cbcae7c71e3f6cd1bdc33b5e + +APPLE: + +https://preview.redd.it/87z5xp34hur91.png?width=646&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f83cd723d83c597a2c9a1868a367f0d8e0c7e9e + +Sadly, however, Blockbuster's Transfer Agent was EquiServe: + +https://preview.redd.it/w2xjiif6hur91.png?width=871&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5a3add548c5c04f05136a183e4e83f1738ce19 + +Which completely ruins my entire theo-- + +https://i.redd.it/m4o526s9hur91.gif + +COMPUTERSHARE OWNS EQUISERVE! + +https://preview.redd.it/1v8xbz3ehur91.png?width=513&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a8fcf7dd91d1fdb8a8ce652ec814d8fe93ba3c6 + +**DO YOU SEE?** + +**THE MAN IN THE GIF IS STANDING IN LINE AT COMPUTERSHARE.** + +**HE'S A FREQUENT GAMESTOP BUYER.** + +https://preview.redd.it/tqlbbvqxiur91.png?width=516&format=png&auto=webp&s=2463d3e3fd5e06b5bb8be43aeb59fbca1e5a4cfd + +**I SPECULATE THAT DFV IS WAITING AT COMPUTERSHARE.** + +\*\*\*\* + +What? You say lots of companies have ComputerShare as a Transfer Agent? It's just a coincidence? + +Well, ComputerShare is 32.4% of the Transfer Agent Market. + +https://preview.redd.it/08rh12unjur91.png?width=1146&format=png&auto=webp&s=7059d29ff0f9002c351a8ee426fd423690630047 + +The chances that the 5 companies named in the meme are all at ComputerShare? + +A 0.36% probability. + +\*\*\*\* + +[Thanks, DFV.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rrXR6n0RTY&t=207s) + +\*\*\*\* + +# EDIT: [For those questioning the ComputerShare & BNY Mellon connection, ComputerShare acquired the share management portion of BNY Mellon's business in 2012.](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/computershare-completes-acquisition-of-bny-mellon-shareowner-services-136582478.html) +Honestly, this is probably the most insightful person I've talked to in my history of organising AMAs for this sub. Their knowledge when it comes to naked shorting, the system in general is amazing - because they’re on the ground floor detecting it. + +Let me start off with a quote from the interview regarding cash account lending: + +&#x200B; + +>**Wes:** As you know and I know, one of the main reasons reported short interest does not equal the real short interest is because the brokers in an attempt to circumvent Regulation SHO marked their trading tickets long. Trading tickets say short, long, exempt - so if you mark it long it does not go into your reported short interest right? + +&#x200B; + +>**David:** You have it. And if they’re borrowing shares from cash accounts, which is another trick, that you have uncovered (Wes). I’m not making accusations here, you uncovered this - we have together uncovered this. + +&#x200B; + +>**Wes:** No question. + +If you want anecdata evidence of cash account lending, there it is. DRS is the way. + +# The Interview + +I’m dropping an interview here between Wes Christian and someone you may or may not have heard of called David Wenger. They’ve worked together for a long time and I low-key view this as a “bromance” type scenario when it comes to the three musketeers, including Dave (among many others) who know each other and actively fight the ill-structured market. + +Note, this might come off as an “advert” in some *small* respect, but look past that as the utility value of the knowledge we can acquire is great. + +&#x200B; + +[Sharepoint link here for the interview](https://shareintel-my.sharepoint.com/personal/dwenger_shareintel_com/_layouts/15/onedrive.aspx?id=%2Fpersonal%2Fdwenger%5Fshareintel%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FVideo%2FWes%20Christian%20interviews%20David%20Wenger%2010%2E13%2E2021%2Emp4&parent=%2Fpersonal%2Fdwenger%5Fshareintel%5Fcom%2FDocuments%2FVideo&originalPath=aHR0cHM6Ly9zaGFyZWludGVsLW15LnNoYXJlcG9pbnQuY29tLzp2Oi9wL2R3ZW5nZXIvRVR1ODlFa0xRUXhFaG92U0I5djZxSjhCaktJWTBCbnJ1VFl4NWUzSUk2RFdNdz9ydGltZT0tOUFKSEptUTJVZw) (I’ve got David’s permission to share this link on our sub - let's see if SharePoint can hold up against the volume 😅) + +# Alt Link removed for the Wes/David interview, there's a connection to a former scam with someone named Chad where apes lost money. + +I was previously talking to David to set up an AMA months ago, which fell off the books due to life. So it’s great we have access to this interview here as it does have some interesting tidbits in it. I’ll provide my anecdotal notes below from conversations I've had with him. + +# Intro to David and [Shareintel](https://shareintel.com/) + +This guy has been on the right side of the fence for 20 odd years. Spent years building software that’s patented, which can detect shady shit when it comes to share ownership (essentially detecting if naked shorting is occurring). + +Now, that catch to this is - it cannot be backdated. As David puts it in the interview, a company needs to turn the security camera on to capture this happening. Not a limitation of their software, rather a design of the system they’re working in (yes, your thoughts can lead to shady design). + +He has witnessed naked shorting in the order of double that of outstanding shares in the example he gave in the interview, or double/triple that of the reported short interest reported to FINRA. It just does not align with what’s in the DTC. + +David even reached out to the SEC and got put under an NDA. His solution at a macro level could basically help the SEC solve the problem of naked shorting. But guess what…. It appears to me (and David?) that they did not want it - which then translates into the regulatory capture debate. + +# Ending notes + +I’m catching up with David on CS/DRS topics, let me know if you have any questions specific for him - if there are a lot that are outside of the scope of the interview above, I’ll try and set up an AMA if there’s interest. + +Second, to that, we have an AMA coming up with a company that begins with C and ends with E - so stay tuned 🎉🎉🎉 + +Note: I've applied a moderator flair as it's associated with mod work - informative mod work 😉 + +Edit: I'm fairly sure I spelt Wes's name wrong in the title - sue me, I've been drinking +Anybody have recommendations for ways to do Disney land/world? Any secrets to avoiding lines? I’ve heard about services where you “rent a handicap” which seems slimy as heck, but wondering if there’s anything else out there +In the past 3 months, I negotiated a 22% raise and HR said “that’ll be it for a while,” but the organization recently decided I’ll begin to supervise others so to me, it seems fair to ask for another raise given the additional responsibilities. Is it okay to ask for this or should I wait until my next review in a year? +I’m 23 and have about 10k invested in my Roth IRA and about $800 invested in my 401k (got a 401k recently). My investment strategy revolves around index funds and is primarily the S&P 500 and a couple other index funds. The company I work for matches 2% and I make about 70k. I contribute about 6%. I don’t want to increase what I’m contributing to my retirement. Is it in my best interest to keep maxing out my Roth IRA instead of putting that money in my 401k? +Maybe I should post this in r/finance but figured someone here has prob got some experience in this. + +I was in the first 50 hired at a company making ~$40MM. We recently got nearly $1B valuation and will likely unicorn next round. Nasdaq has promoted us publicly and there’s a high chance we’ll IPO in the next couple years. + +I have what I believe to be a pretty good amount of options, I advocated for more when I started and recently hired someone to my team and looking at the options package documentation realized I have more than were offered to our new COO, and mine are at a super low exercise price. + +The way I calculate it based on our current FMV it’s in the mid 6 figures, but I don’t think the number I’m looking at even accounts for our recent valuation. I did some quick math, admittedly I don’t understand most of this, and if we get the exit value I expect it’ll be in the $3MM to $4MM range. + +With that said, I know nothing about dilution, if I’m doing any of this math right, if there’s shady corporate things I should be aware or, AMT tax, etc … + +1. Who should I talk to about this? A financial advisor? Like who consults on this type of stuff. + +2. I just got granted additional options. Very few compared to the initial grant, and at a much higher exercise price. And I have a new 4 year vest period. That’s probably all normal, but I’m hesitant to accept the grant out of fear it might do something to my overall portfolio. We’ve also become much more corporate since I joined so I’m a little wary of the company trying to be sneaky about things. Is it safe to accept or should I also discuss with a professional? + +Thanks! +[Link](https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/aussie-firm-dumps-95-grind-lets-staff-choose-their-own-work-hours/news-story/0762fe5f51f14c49d21605f9a88bb67f?utm_campaign=EditorialSB&utm_source=news.com.au&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_content=SocialBakers) + +It sound good until you realise that means you can be expected to work around the clock all day...every day... +Everyone talks about testing different strategies to find one that works for you. I’m wondering how you went about finding proven strategies to test. + +EDIT: Thanks to everyone who answered! I guess I wasn't clear enough though, sorry about that. + +I'm not necessarily looking for advice as a beginner (I have plenty of strategies I've been testing). I'm asking consistent traders how they went about starting to find strategies to test. + +What resources did you utilize? Did you just sit down and go in blind? Did you read certain books or watch certain videos? Did you have a friend/family member/mentor teach you? + +Either way, there are some good conversations below so thanks, and sorry for the confusion! +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/vjQQDJ8whP) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 2048 days +Relatively new to algotrading. What brokerage API, market data API, backtesting framework, etc do you use and why? + +I also have 2 follow-up questions: +1) Is it ever sensible to use a standard exchange’s (like Binance) API over a brokerage specifically designed for algotrading like IB or Alpaca? +2) Will the market data API always be a Websocket API, or are there cases where a REST API is suitable? + +Cheers +Hello all! + +Well...you're going to want to strap in for this week, things didn't go so well and it looks like they will be getting worse before they get better. + +# Key Statistics (Overall) + +NOTE: I am using TradesViz which is so fantastic HOWEVER, the win rates are calculated based on trades and not executions. For instance, if I trade the same ticker over and over again, and have a 70% win rate on those trades BUT I have one big bad losing trade that counters all of the wins, it will appear as a 0% win rate. + +Again, reminder that the overall data is going to take quite some time to balance out as the first several weeks served as a testing period where I would do a lot of 1 share and very low leverage trades in an attempt to practice my strategy and the usage of the software. I would focus more on my weekly statistics to gauge my progress so far. I imagine by the end of this year, my overall statistics should be balanced. + +Account Net Worth: $60,838.03 + +Unrealized P/L: ($1,406) + +Realized P/L: $16,270.24 + +Average P/L Per Week: $2,324.32 (Note: This is based on when I started using real leverage around Week 6) + +Average P/L Per Day: $285.82 + +Win Rate: 60% + +Profit Factor: 2.276 + +# Positions + +https://preview.redd.it/ug5lhxg51h971.png?width=683&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b310cad5ea63916f1f24085804690b9c5a219d3 + +# Overall Statistics Images + +https://preview.redd.it/h2u4tsgd1h971.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=c09d4698d239c8aeebff35b7065391d0d1be0c32 + +https://preview.redd.it/agebb95h1h971.png?width=1351&format=png&auto=webp&s=083c11e86a3e5a83c7fe43b3c7b4925c77dfa3b4 + +https://preview.redd.it/it7vzuti1h971.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b2991662c88daa79b29a041a43c1e5596269f1e + +https://preview.redd.it/575ccvkk1h971.png?width=1233&format=png&auto=webp&s=52258cd6aad78f5e038cc97b4a152964f47e65ee + +https://preview.redd.it/gne84hyl1h971.png?width=1237&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3eb927cac96adab3627e055224eac0acbcc08d7 + +# Week 13 + +Well...This was...not excellent. I took some pretty significant losses this week and didn't take significant profits when I had the opportunity. I am a man filled with regret this week. The sad part is...my day trades were actually really, really good. It was my swing trades and cashing out of losing positions that really hurt. Here's the kicker...one of the parts was literally...a fat finger. + +If you are more interested in the day trades feel free to click the hyperlinks on each day and see what trades I took. Pretty awesome returns, but I wasn't using a whole lot of leverage since all of my money was tied up elsewhere. + +Basically, day trading was great this week, things started turning south on Wednesday. When I literally fat fingered a massive mistake and closed my SPCE position for a loss which I absolutely did not want to do. + +Then Thursday, after taking an unnecessary loss I realized it was probably time to take necessary losses, so I closed out my meme spec plays as the catalysts and TA I was watching became invalidated. + +Friday arrives and SPCE is mooning pre-market. I decided not sell the $10,000 I had in gains but instead I decided to average down on calls expiring next week. + +I'll provide more detail on each day. + +P/L: ($2,264.13) + +Win Rate: 65% + +[Monday 06/28](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/uLDmHrRQ) + +P/L: $876.67 + +Win Rate: 83.33% + +I had a good day trading SPCE (if you haven't noticed it's one of my favorite stocks to trade). Most of the P/L came from this but I had successful trades on a few other tickers, but again, I wasn't using enough leverage even though the percent returns were fantastic. It was very sad to see that trend all week. I was having 6-9% trades but I was using barely any money, and I mean some of these trades I was using as little as $500. I won't talk about that again, just as you look through the trades understand it would have been an absolutely enormous week if I trusted myself on stocks other than my swing trade stocks. + +[Tuesday 06/29](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/QxkPr0nF) + +P/L: $484.65 + +Win Rate: 85.71% + +Another great day trading. Awesome percent returns but again same issue I mentioned above. + +[Wednesday 06/30](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/Oeh7zz6I) + +P/L: ($2,784.85) + +Win Rate: 70% + +This was the day of the fat finger. Again, I was having a fantastic day trading away and for the first time I decided to trade multiple stocks at the same time, turns out, I'm definitely not ready for that. Although I was successful in doing so, I made a huge mistake by clicking close on SPCE when I meant to close out of a scalp. So yes, I took a $3000 loss on a stock that I wanted to hold and yes, the very next day it ran up 25% and I would have made a great sum of money without ever realizing any losses. Very unfortunate, but I suppose lessons were learned. + +[Thursday 07/01](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/u6tRoZXX) + +P/L: ($2,334.13) + +Win Rate: 35.71% + +After accidentally taking a loss on SPCE I decided it was time to clean up shop a little bit. If I was going to realize losses on stocks I didn't even want to, then I should probably realize losses on stocks that I should close out of. I closed out of virtually all of my losing positions that I was holding as the catalysts and TA have become invalidated. The good news is, these updates don't quite reflect everything that is happening since I have things going for weeks at a time but only report on weekly events. What I mean by that is I have been selling AMC CC's for the past several weeks, so all the loses I realized on the stock were covered. + +Today was not a great day for trading all together for me. Even if I didn't close out of those positions, I would have had a red day. + +[Friday 07/02](https://www.tradesviz.com/viewday/n3GPF1Cn) + +Win Rate: 100% + +P/L: $70 + +My, my, my....this was just...depressing. Well, I decided to load up on SPCE shares and calls just before close just in case they decided to announce the test flight after hours. Well, that's precisely what happened and I woke up to being incredibly ITM. I was up over 20% on my shares and 300% on my calls, roughly showing $10,000 P/L. But as you can tell from my P/L I have above...I did not cash out. + +Why? Well, I have been following this stock for a year now and everything has been leading to this moment, the moment where Richard Branson goes to space himself. That moment is next weekend. + +So, when the market opened, I anticipated a sell the news event but what happened I did not see coming. My absolute biggest mistake was not selling my calls right at open, that should have been done, no brainer. I was just so sure that it was just a pullback and we were going to seek more upside on this two decade long news that has finally arrived...I was terribly mistaken. + +The stock plummeted, giving back all of the gains it received from the news, and putting me in the red after being up $10,000. I said if it fell under $50 I would have to consider selling and re-entering. But every single bounce that came, I swore it had to be the bottom, after all, SPCE reached $60 on a random test flight announcement earlier this year and that didn't even have Branson nor did they have FAA approval. My PT was $70. + +A hard lesson was learned here, I have yet to be in this position. Normally, I had either sold way to early and I'm bitching about how I need to hold on longer and really juice my wins. But I have yet to go this positive and then just give it all back. + +So, next week is going to be extremely interesting for me. If you noticed, my calls are now severely punished and will likely be worse next week. So I did something I typically avoid, I kept adding to a losing position. I refuse to believe that after this news, it would just give back all of it's gains, it actually looks like SPCE conducted an offering and that was a majority of the selling pressure. That being said, I kept averaging down my calls every chance I could get. Especially once it found the floor. + +We will see next week, I will hopefully at least be able to get my money back as I expect an extremely volatile and bullish week for SPCE, but it would be sad to have picked the right stock at the right time and played it wrong to just walk away with nothing. + +# Psychology + +The biggest thing for me this week was outside factors. I am an entrepreneur and the stock market is meant to be the vehicle for me to raise capital for the businesses I am building out. One of these businesses is getting very close to being ready to go and I need a large sum of capital to pull it off. I was a pig on Friday. $10,000 is literally 1/6 of my account size, to look that in the face and say "nah" is something that I can't believe I did. + +I started breaking a rule that I actually don't typically break "Hit singles, not homeruns". Normally, when I trade it's literally all singles, hell, they are bunts. I take profits so fast it's ubsurd and almost always miss out on a significant amount of upside. + +I think I saw this as my "opportunity" where I was going to make so much money it would be life changing and I let that blind me to the point where I completely went against my entire strategy and everything that has helped me maintain success up to this point. + +I certainly have learned this lesson the hard way. I would like to say it's over now, but I have already doubled down on all my positions, so next week is going to be a week of pain or rejoice. If it doesn't go my way I will likely be reporting my 3rd week of losses and the sad part is, all of the day trading in between is perfectly fine. I just keep giving back all of my gains via massive swing trades that I am managing poorly, and by managing poorly I literally just mean I'm not realizing gains when I should be. + +# Software + +TradesViz is still crushing it, loving what I am seeing and they updated the new feature I was super excited about so I will post a screen shot for that: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/eg9cn1mr6h971.png?width=950&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fcb8bf39eb0d1761a143c88de8bc03d53613f27 + +I'm still using TradeStation and I don't have many complaints because I can't tell if it's just operator error. I need to take some time and just do a software day and get really familiar and comfortable with my setup. I really can't have any fat finger days that lose me money on accident. That is so incredibly noobish and I hope you will never see me report anything like that ever again. + +# June Overview + +Well, my first full month of using decent leverage is complete. Here's how it turned out: + +https://preview.redd.it/tsknwql87h971.png?width=1293&format=png&auto=webp&s=f709509b02af7187575e650a0462715b17ca8e51 + +https://preview.redd.it/q6wj0pab7h971.png?width=1282&format=png&auto=webp&s=1181351776730beea5e63e605db39d41162459fc + +https://preview.redd.it/inrhjwyd7h971.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=46629e61a82515ac32b0ffaac15a84c0b28e20c9 + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR:** Lol. That's literally all I can do at this week. Fat finger for a $3k loss + not cashing out a $10k gain and watching it fall into the red, meanwhile doubling down on the way down. Next week is either going to be glorious or brutal, I'm sure you will all enjoy next weeks post either way. +We are considering solar panels for our south-west facing roof in South East England - and wondering what the community thinks of it. + +The first quote we have had is around £6.3k for a 3,100 kWh, 8 panel system. We will obtain further quotes and are also considering options which see a lease / subscription as opposed to a big capital outlay (have heard they exist, not sure). + +Reading about it, it feels like these will only break even around 10+ years if we invested ourselves, possibly 15. But electricity prices are high, I now mostly WFH and so am home all day (as is my wife who doesn’t work), and we do have the spare cash which otherwise doesn’t earn that much return. We currently don’t think we will be moving from our home in the next 10 years. We have air conditioning installed, which means our electricity usage is now relatively high (using it as a heater in the winter, albeit not always as we do have a gas boiler and radiators). + +We like the idea that we are being green if we go down this route, but the key query is purely financial. + +I doubt the solar panels in themselves will add value to the property - certainly not as much as we spend. + +While of course the answer changes based on the various variables and ‘depends’, what does the community think of solar panels? +Hi. + +&#x200B; + +GoodRx Q4 earnings was released a couple of days ago, and as outlined in [this article](https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goodrx-plunges-35-as-guidance-disappoints-2646983) the EPS came in at $0.09 instead of the anticipated $0.10, causing the stock to plunge about 38%. + +How come the market reacts with such a huge drop based on - seen with my novice eyes - a quite small underperformance from a high growth company? I know that wall street is all about the next 6-12 months, but a close to 40% drop based on a an EPS 10% below expectations seems rather excessive. + +PS. Note the typo in the title - it should say "10%" +My fellow apes, I hope you have your feet up on a comfortable couch with a nice glass of whiskey in your hand because I'm going to tell you why you are going to make a lot of money as a GME shareholder, and in the process I'll share my theories as to why MOASS has taken much longer than anticipated and why quite frankly, Ryan Cohen and GameStop need their shareholders to help. + +https://preview.redd.it/w2mgdaztgrb81.jpg?width=2494&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=79aff0a3fbedb68d6bb2263eaa976e36fcba33c7 + +A little background, you may have seen some of my recent [bulletin](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/s24foa/i_spend_812_hours_every_day_reading_news_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) posts or the DD [GameStop's Refurbishment Program is a Big Fucking Deal - $80 BILLION BIG](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/s37hqm/gamestops_refurbishment_program_is_a_big_fucking/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \- I put in a lot of time daily to researching everything from zero carbon emission crayons to using toilet paper on Mars. My superpower is age and my Achilles heel is being a perfectionist. Ok, now if you find me credible enough to invest 5 minutes of your time, keep reading with Bugs. + +https://preview.redd.it/l9ifou8vgrb81.jpg?width=505&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c48b2ee6561066d3dd9ab33dd72defe334175aa + +There has been a lot of dialogue surrounding DRS (Direct Registration System), but for those who are new, the below is taken directly from [DTCC's website](https://www.dtcc.com/settlement-and-asset-services/securities-processing/direct-registration-system) + +https://preview.redd.it/ngx6z9xygrb81.jpg?width=2602&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9420634f4a22fa708918147b63dfb094df6400e6 + +Why does DRS matter? Well, there is a circulating hypothesis that GME along with other stocks have had their float sold multiple times. How one might ask? It doesn't matter. What you should care about is refilling your whiskey and getting back to your wife before she leaves with boyfriend #3. But if you subscribe to the theory of GME having 100,000,000+ shares in circulation and believe there was or is ongoing criminal activity around the stock, then DRS is a strong argument for ending this possible criminal activity. + +In GameStop's most recent [Form-10Q](https://investor.gamestop.com/node/19571/html) filing the company notes that 5.2Mn shares were directly registered with Computershare. + +https://preview.redd.it/r9ldzpn0hrb81.jpg?width=2198&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=262a8e778d49d5a3e15fa2cc89a672c3f5cbfea0 + +There have been multiple mentions that this is the first instance in history a company has revealed these numbers to the public. I cannot confirm or deny this claim but the fact is that GME released this information to the public, and the fact is that GME released this count before any announcement of an NFT dividend or share recall. I have read countless posts speculating on an NFT dividend and assumption that GME can just issue a share recall but let me share my thoughts on the former and research on the latter. + +https://preview.redd.it/ljgfzwq2hrb81.jpg?width=1800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fdac5780f0389eb514d2b9cbe73439ff019624ca + +The prominent Wu-Tang 1 of 1 that was bought by PleasrDAO ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/20/arts/music/wu-tang-clan-once-upon-a-time-in-shaolin.html) article) has been speculated to be part of a GME NFT dividend. Why hasn't this happened? Or was it supposed to ever happen? + +https://preview.redd.it/3ml2ven4hrb81.jpg?width=1066&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=098d0b6a02054d1dc36904751352daab90add0c6 + +What I do know is that from the research I've read (sorry I don't have links because it's from a long time ago), it appears that if there is no monetary value of a dividend the court can decide on a replacement value. But obviously one can argue that if you split the $4,000,000 acquisition into 76.35Mn ([shares outstanding on Marketwatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gme?mod=over_search)) equal parts and each part gets bid up to $100, then GME shorts would have to cough up $100 to pay shareholders - is this plausible? Could a judge rule that there is not enough precedence or duration and nullify the appreciation in value in the digital asset? Or maybe a judge would ask to revisit the case after a 200-day moving average has been established? + +There are a lot of unknowns in the NFT dividend speculation and who even knows if the constituents of PleasrDAO want to cash out in a fractional ownership structure? RC might have been a participant in the transaction and bought the album with friends with the intention of offering it as a dividend but MAYBE after more discussions with legal and peers he came to the conclusion that this option was not the best way to deal with any alleged illegal shorting of GME. + +https://preview.redd.it/g96ayof6hrb81.jpg?width=348&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3f23d3fae0aa530aa13d21b09df8bce11d60726d + +I hope you've all wiped your asses because now we're going to talk about the share recall that hasn't happened and I could use some help from legal experts to clear up this shit. + +10 months ago, u/DwightSchrute666 made a [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9eqv9/clarifying_share_recall_what_is_it_and_how_does/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) highlighting the complications in issuing a share recall. In a nut shell, there is no big stiff red button that the Chairman can push to activate a share recall. Sorry, it's not that simple. Lenders such as Fidelity and Blackrock cockblock any effort of a share recall because they are making great returns from borrowing fees and possibly assisting their golf buddies who are caught on the wrong side of this trade; reference this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/s3blxs/fidelitys_response_to_sec_on_7jan22_tell_me/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) where Fidelity comments to the SEC that the Proposed Rule should exclude short positions. + +Smell fishy??? + +https://preview.redd.it/qbhrkd78hrb81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5daf53c98565b7c3fe3c3851c806240d0468d57c + +Now it's time for the wrinkle-brained legalese experts to take the baton. In researching how to initiate a share recall, I wanted to ascertain if 50.1% or 100% of shareholders would need to vote YES. I came across a paper titled "Let the Bear Beware: What Drives Stock Recalls" - [PDF](https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=986119103022075103091008070108000022008023030035091056091116028064004027078125074117026035013044039111007014098023095014008026007007000016092111000030070006095087091037051036066117094107068092097018005083006086002065116117070010004095029090085006090122&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE) link download here. I haven't had a chance to read through the entire document but I did come across this section on PG 8: + +[PG. 8](https://preview.redd.it/ktr1q6p9hrb81.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ffa8798678cda3de0fa8fef364f18a54b600b393) + +The way I interpret this highlight is IF Fidelity or any other broker can locate a replacement share then the recall fails because there is no forced liquidation / short position being closed. Using some logic here, this argument holds for shares in circulation > 1. But if Company X has 100 outstanding shares and 99 have been DRS'd, then there is no justification that the broker for the SHF can find a replacement. So this leads me to conclude a similar sentiment to u/YurMotherWasAHamster + +https://preview.redd.it/uqldqphchrb81.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c09ca3b256b59937d13691d7b54e26ec7f5ee9e + +If criminal activity "abusive naked shorting" exists with GME stock, then what would make the criminal(s) stop? Again, I do not have the answer, but it appears that if GameStop is able to present a list of shareholders who have registered 100% of the outstanding shares (+/- 1) in their names, then the company can formally issue a share recall. In reality, GameStop probably doesn't need 100% of outstanding shares to be registered by retail. If all of the company's insiders DRS'd their shares then the difference in OUTSTANDING SHARES - INSIDERS HOLDINGS = what retail would need to DRS to activate the KILL SHOT. But can we expect all insiders to DRS? + +https://preview.redd.it/nny2bcrfhrb81.jpg?width=1066&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03ec193b35301627958b5b177640ea01f29e51f7 + +So in conclusion, it is my belief that a company such as GameStop can be subject to abusive naked shorting and be powerless even if the company has $1,000,000,000 in the bank to hire the best lawyers. RC might be wall street's darling with a real turnaround strategy for GameStop, but let's be real, Kenneth Cordele Griffin is worth $20Bn+ and has been in the game long enough to have the most powerful and influential contacts in the financial and political spheres. No one knows who all the bad actors are in this unfolding Hollywood drama but for the first time in history it appears that a public company could have 100% of its outstanding shares DRS'd. + +Disclosure: I have not DRS'd yet but come next Tuesday Fidelity is going to have a fu\*\*\*\*\* surprise. I will post my purple ring when it arrives in the mail and continue to share my DD / research which I believe will benefit both GameStop and its shareholders. +>**Key Points** +> +>**Jamie Dimon’s message to the management team of $3.4 trillion banking goliath JPMorgan Chase: Be frightened of fintech rivals.** +> +>**“Absolutely we should be scared s---less about that,” Dimon told analysts.** +> +>**Dimon said he sent his deputies a list of global competitors, and that PayPal, Square, Stripe, Ant Financial as well as Amazon, Apple and Google were names the bank needs to keep an eye on.** +> +>[JPMorgan Chase](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=JPM) CEO [Jamie Dimon](https://www.cnbc.com/id/10000222) has watched while a new breed of fintech players, led by [PayPal](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=PYPL), [Square](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=SQ) and tech giants around the world have exponentially grown users and market value. +> +>His message to the management team of his $3.4 trillion banking goliath: Be frightened. +> +>“Absolutely, we should be scared s---less about that,” Dimon said Friday in a conference call with analysts. “We have plenty of resources, a lot of very smart people. We’ve just got to get quicker, better, faster. ... As you look at what we’ve done, you’d say we’ve done a good job, but the other people have done a good job, too.” +> +>Dimon’s blunt assessment was in response to questions from analysts including Mike Mayo of Wells Fargo who pointed out that with [rich, tech-like valuations](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/disruptors-paypal-and-square-surpass-wall-street-giants-including-goldman-sachs-in-market-cap.html), fintech players have “trounced” the traditional banks in recent years. +> +>Dimon said he sent his deputies a list of global competitors, and that PayPal, Square, Stripe, Ant Financial as well as U.S. tech giants including [Amazon](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=AMZN), Apple and [Google](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=GOOGL) were names the bank needs to keep an eye on. The rivals are also clients of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment banking in many cases, he added. +> +>Competition will be particularly tight in the world of payments, he said: “I expect to see very, very tough, brutal competition in the next 10 years,” Dimon said. “I expect to win, so help me God.” +> +>Dimon added that in some cases, the new players were “examples of unfair competition” that the bank would do something about eventually. He included players that take advantage of richer debit-card revenue for small banks and firms Dimon accused of not taking precautions against money laundering. +> +>He specifically called out Plaid, the payments start-up whose acquisition by Visa recently collapsed, saying “people who improperly use data that’s been given to them, like Plaid.” +> +>Plaid CEO Zach Perret declined to directly respond to the accusation during an [interview](https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/15/plaid-ceo-on-how-its-5-point-3-billion-deal-with-visa-fell-through.html) with CNBC’s David Faber, adding that Plaid is spending time with the bank on a partnership. +> +>When contacted for further comment, a Plaid spokeswoman said the company is “focused on ensuring people have access to their own financial information so they can securely share it with permission in order to use the fintech apps they choose.” +> +>She added that “data privacy and security are core to everything we do, including the data exchange agreements we have with JPMorgan Chase among many other banks.” + +[Original CNBC article](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/jamie-dimon-says-jpmorgan-chase-should-absolutely-be-scared-s-less-about-fintech-threat.html) +Throwaway account for anonymity. + +I am at $10 million, with another $2 million coming in the next 5-10 years. Currently 35% in rental properties, 45% in VTSAX, 20% in alternative investments. I am fully FatFired…apart from a little bookkeeping work on the rental properties now and then. 50 years-old with no intention of working again. I want to make everything as simple as possible and am considering just putting the whole lot in VTSAX (minus a small portion in cash). I’m definitely selling all the properties…don’t want to deal with them anymore and there’s so little inventory out there at the moment that it’s like a feeding frenzy right now with the one I already have on the market, so it’s a great time to sell them. Some of the alternative investments have up to 7 years or so to run…can’t get out before that. But as soon as I can, I like the idea of getting everything into VTSAX (or a mix of that and an international index fund) and just living off 3%-4%. $300k is ample, $400k means even more travel. And when the other $2 million arrives then there will be even more cashflow. + +My question – does anyone else out there at my approximate NW do the same thing? Or at that level is that really leaving too much possible money on the table by not having some in real estate and/or alternative investments? Part of me wants the peace of mind of only having the one thing to deal with each month, or quarter. Another part wonders if I’d be missing an opportunity to move up another level and have more for things like philanthropy and helping out family, without too much risk since I’d obviously still be fine if my NW ended up going down by $2 or $3 million. Though that would obviously suck a bit and put a dent in the total peace of mind that’s top of my want list. I'm not looking for suggestions to put a percentage in a bond fund. I may end up doing that, though at this level of money it seems safe enough to just have it all in stocks and lower my spending to $200k if there’s a prolonged downturn. I’m just wanting verification that others do put literally almost everything into index funds at this level of NW and more or less set it and forget it. So, anyone else gone the really conservative route with that level of NW? If not, how have you spread it out? +The obvious difference in volume of GME and others in the group is telling me that majority of trade volume that drive up the prices of these stocks come from institutions and other giants. Yes, there is definitely fomo buyers and day traders but that wouldn't account for even a tiny percent. So what that means is what we seeing with huge volumes could be shorts covering, and/or they pumping to hedge their positions against GME short position. And they are definitely NOT covering GME or even letting go of that short button. + +My opinion is simply echoing what u/myplayprofile said in her 2 DD posts, and I think they doing the same tactic on several rising stocks right now. So I believe GME has now separated itself from the pack, yes the prices might move similar like they have been, but GME is now 100% different. There is only one Stonk remained. Super Stonk. + +I'm not predicting future prices or anything here, nor do I tell you to do anything. I'm just stating my opinion of GME being the ONE and ONLY stonk on its own now; further confirm my bias of others being distractions, because I started in January buying in the hype of meme stocks, heavily invested in 4 of them, got caught holding since, but now there is only ONE. + +TLDR- Don't get distracted, nothing changed the past 2 weeks, GME volume is still tiny like 2 weeks ago, shorts are shorting more, and very few real ppl actually bought into or FOMO into amc or bb or others, it's all institutions and their media playing games. +I recently joined a boat club and have gotten a lot of use from it. Wish I did it years ago. It so much easier than buying a boat. It got me thinking of what other hidden gem memberships are out there. What memberships are you glad you joined? +[Here](https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-plan-for-economic-patriotism-13b879f4cfc7) is here explanation of the plan (and a little more exists on her main website). There's been a lot of buzz about Warren and here plans, but I wanted to talk about this one. Is "Economic Patriotism" good for the country? Bad? What are the pros and cons? + +&#x200B; + +I don't really want to involve politics, I'm just curious strictly from an economics perspective if it's a (in general) good idea or not, and what the pros/cons of it are. Thanks! +I apologize if this question is clumsily worded, I have a very basic understanding of Econ. I also want to preface by saying I don’t have a political agenda here I just want understanding. + +This question has been gnawing on me since I’ve been reading about the tax bill. From what I understand the bill not only decreased the corporate tax rate (35% to 21%), it set a one time repatriation tax of profits overseas (8%, 15.5% for cash). The goal was to incentivize companies to move their money back to US (and tax revenue). + +I also have read that companies are in fact bringing money back to the US. I don’t understand why this would happen, as staying out and paying the same 15% seems more profitable. Is it that there are other benefits to being in the US? And what are they? +My mate goes into her account and is about to buy another share of GME and notices this: + +https://preview.redd.it/31faaek4mie91.jpg?width=899&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e40d36a9ff58954cf2403c26ad151d884c53786 + +What's that you might ask? + +Look closer. + +https://preview.redd.it/cirshkqoqie91.png?width=348&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa73316307361944d8eb6a92b76fe272797df057 + +You're probably thinking to yourself, where have I seen this before. I got you there bro: + +u/StupidMonsters + +[**https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wb19r2/wtf\_is\_happenening\_ibkr\_removed\_my\_splividend/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wb19r2/wtf_is_happenening_ibkr_removed_my_splividend/) + +u/Fit_Cryptographer_96 + +[**https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wayyix/the\_ibkr\_saga\_continues\_i\_woke\_up\_to\_being\_short/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wayyix/the_ibkr_saga_continues_i_woke_up_to_being_short/) + +These are just two examples of, I'm sure, many other instances (**please** **check your accounts**) + +So of course she messages IBKR and they openly tell her that a short position on her account has magically happened due to 'corporate action': + +https://preview.redd.it/9tp27j27fie91.jpg?width=2242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aebb12dbd3d142d89bff0410cc6947bc238a5ad8 + +Dramatic close up: + +https://preview.redd.it/gxzfcfdbgie91.png?width=980&format=png&auto=webp&s=784a894e39dbfc4c8d47af6633ee177da70a2fd2 + +For reference, the purchasing timeline for my friend is as followed: + +&#x200B; + +* 11th July - Open account, 1 GME share purchased +* 14th July - 1 GME share was requested to be DRS’d +* 20th July - 1 GME share arrives in Computershare, leaving IBKR + +*\*\*22nd July - Stock split dividend is issued, but at this time, no shares remain in her brokerage account or can be split so how can this be affected by 'corporate action'.* + +* 26th July - 1 GME share brought, as currently settling in IBKR (ready for DRS) +* 29th July - Short position has been created (by IBKR, without clients prior knowledge or consent) for -3 GME shares. + +&#x200B; + +So this is in no way possible, right? She's got a **cash account** and is a long term value investor. There weren't even any GME shares in her account during the dividend - look at the timeline! She's come to me for help, so we're attempting to reach IBKR to see what they have to say about this. + +They've so far logged us out twice, shut down a conversation with this pop up and now they won't connect us to an advisor at all. + +https://preview.redd.it/wm3etyrrfie91.png?width=1138&format=png&auto=webp&s=561574b0db5df08ba012fbb9dc05e3357e845320 + +Will update as more progress occurs but there's some serious fuckery here people. **Check your accounts.** + +EDIT: + +Speaking to a customer advisor now (I'm helping my mate) - will post update shortly. + +https://preview.redd.it/k4a931tukie91.png?width=1860&format=png&auto=webp&s=58ecb37d7f8286344a3100fe6d79655402b3f2ab + +https://preview.redd.it/cw4ctcfelie91.png?width=1846&format=png&auto=webp&s=2baa7860d9c7b5488f4bc28a169ec32f50222c8b + +Note how they say others were affected by this. I wonder just how many.... I'm inclined to think A LOT. + +Still waiting... + +**UPDATE**: + +**They have removed the short position**. Asked them why they were there in the first place, and what excuse they come up with since 'corporate action' isn't really flying. + +https://preview.redd.it/hk2epkannie91.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5aebc544cd51af4f1f9e09b74abfc5892c096ef + +I'll let you know what they say. + +**UPDATE (Final)**: + +They didn't want to answer the question, surprising that. + +https://preview.redd.it/lhm3rreooie91.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c3c69831ee5a551203d619f3b00a50cc0501c5f + +**EDIT**: + +Adding in here - Queen of the Apes, Dr. Susanne Trimbath herself shares her thoughts, as below: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wbesg3/those\_who\_suddenly\_have\_short\_positions\_in\_their/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wbesg3/those_who_suddenly_have_short_positions_in_their/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +https://preview.redd.it/ej0vcqvyvke91.png?width=938&format=png&auto=webp&s=601b381b6fbd3ce91cd17cf2a7546e80ca1c4eca + +"**Wait,...what?** + +**You had 1 phantom share for which broker did not get any split shares. So, they marked your account as owing them 3 shares?🥴 Seems that "short" is internal to them, & should never have shown on customer statement. But, "it happened" & you have the document**." + +Can anyone smell panic? +&#x200B; + +[Graph of net worth, fiat + crypto](https://preview.redd.it/q5mfjdlf3a861.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=81e71b5c50daaf2b3f83327bfd419732334e8e2d) + +* I can't tell anyone around me, but I'm so happy. +* My holdings are 60% ETH, 20% BTC, and the rest alts. (Edit to add, 449 MOONs.) My fiat is in index funds. +* I bought BTC at around $1000 in 2013. +* I bought ETH at around $10 in 2017. +* I haven't sold anything or taken profits, with the exception of a couple of ETH a few years ago for a trip to Vegas. +* I will sell 80% of my holdings when they reach $5 million. I'll quit my job and buy a house. +* I'll hodl 20% forever. +* Everything is in cold storage. +* The graph starts at $100k because I didn't keep track of my money until 2013. +* Please don't wrench me. +Found [this forum entry on investorshub](https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=100401823) totally by conicidence and its some confession from somebody who worked for a MM in the 80s and i couldnt belive how many simillarities there are now nearly 30 years later. + +Here are some goodies that i found : + + +> *Another way is by running the stock up in the morning, averaging up their short then use the above technique to walk it down in the afternoon.* + +> *Hopefully after doing this for several days, it will demoralize the buyers. The volume will dry up and the sellers will materialize thinking that the game is over.* + + +> *This inherent power of position enables the MMs to move the markets at any time up or down. As a result, the only way to draw them out of their favorable position is going long. Now this does not mean just any company but to effectively nail the MMs, Longs must find the great company on the floor and accumulate long before the MM tactics and games begin.* + + +or also another one + +> *Contrary to popular opinion, MM usually Do Not Cover in Fast moving markets either Up or Down if they are short. They Short More. They usually try to cover after the frenzy is out of the market. There are many other techniques they use but the above are the most popular. +This technique works about 9 times out of 10 particularly in a BB market. However that is because 9 out of 10 BB stocks are BS. Remember what I said above. Most MM's don't have a clue as to the value of a Company until they get trapped. If the Company has solid fundementals and a bright future. Then the stock will do very well. And the activity that caused the situation will prove to even help the future stock activity because it created an audience."* + +Well honestly, sounds pretty good for us i would say. Looks like we are the 1 out of 10, so what else to say than : **TITS JACKED** + +It also goes into much more into detail and i dont have enough wrinkles to understand it, but i hope some others will read through it and make some conclusion for the similiarities today. + +Obligatory 🚀🌕 +GameStop said the NFT marketplace launch will be announced in a 10K or 10Q report. + +I think that’s why we’ve seen such extreme shorting today and the last few months really. + +I know not many are hyping an NFT dividend anymore, but it’s still entirely possible still. Right?