diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_10.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_10.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_10.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ + +* Low technical risk - truck and shovel, heap leaching and de-risked with a pilot plant. +* Scalability from Etango-8 to Entango-20 (8Mtp.a. Up to 20Mtp.a. Plant throughput). + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Aug-21 Completed Pre-feasibility study on 8Mtpa (Etango-8) project + * Strong economics and development of mine with initial 3.5Mlb pa - with expansion potential +* Feb-21 Capital raise of AU$12mill at $0.15/share + * Funds for PFS and DFS + * Buy-back and extinguish of the 1.5% revenue royalty held by RCF Funds +* DFS underway - expected cost of $4mill +* BMN added to both URA and HURA ETFs +* Value of company has increase several-fold since Sep 2020 ( +* Oct-21 Company founder and two MDs sold down some of their positions to institutional funds + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* Completion of DFS - due Q3 CY2022 + +[Bannerman Pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/g1bmdr37ziy71.png?width=713&format=png&auto=webp&s=32f4aef35b7003bcb3a1b9a0e6a56782e32bb38c) + +# Deep Yellow (DYL) + +**Brief History:** Deep Yellow has the management play behind them with the ex-Paladin CEO, John Borshoff at the helm. A PFS was completed in early 2021 on developing their Tumas Project in Namibia. DYL’s plan is to establish a multi-project, globally diversified uranium portfolio targeting to deliver 5-10Mlb annually. John Borshoff was appointed CEO and MD in Oct 2016. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Tumas DFS commenced in Feb-21 following PFS proving sufficient for a 20+ year LOM +* The PFS only incorporated a portion of the known ore bodies in the study +* Resource upgrade drilling and exploration. Over 21,467m drilled over FY21 +* Capital raise of A$42mill in July 2021 - to advance feasibility studies and “M&A activities” + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities**. + +* Significant resource upgrade +* Merger and acquisition activity expected +* Completion of DFS and progress to FID + +[Deep Yellow Pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/5n5xthngziy71.png?width=687&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a2af74b071ca939fdd93d3608dc0c1aa4a4220f) + +# Aura Resources (AEE) + +**Brief History** + +Aura Energy is an exploration and development company which is now focussed on the Tiris Uranium project, a major greenfields uranium discovery in Mauritania (Africa), with 56Mlb U308 in current resources from 66 million tonnes @ 334 ppm U308. Additionally Aura owns the HÄGGÅN vanadium project with a 15.1 billion lb Vanadium Resource (inferred) in Sweden. Aura also owns the Tasiast South Gold project in Mauritania. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Shares recommenced trading on the ASX on 23 September 21, with a renewed focus on progressing the Tiris uranium project and a significant re-rating upon listing. +* Updated DFS, reconfirming Tiris as a low capital cost development opportunity +* Resource upgrade of 10% or 5.0 million lb to the Tiris Uranium deposit in Mauritania +* US$10m Offtake Financing Agreement with Curzon in October 2021, funds will be used for working capital and commencement of production. Up to $10m in additional funds may be used by mutual consent. +* Two geophysical crews were mobilised from South Africa to carry out gravity surveying on all three of Auras tenements for Tasiast South +* $2m raise from issue of options to eligible shareholders, Stage 2 exploration underway at Tiris + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* Triple Uranium ETF entry in 2022 +* Results from Opportunity Review to lower operating costs for project +* Net Zero Emission Study, Water Drilling and Vanadium assays expected before the end of 2021 +* Gravity Survey results for Tasiast South (Gold) +* Further Offtake finance agreements and exposure to higher uranium prices + +[AEE pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/vq0dkx800jy71.png?width=669&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cabaf7e3956af7e20dc8b3dd3380fd92f6b368a) + +# Vimy Resources (VMY) + +**Brief History** + +Vimy Resources is a developer with two projects, Mulga Rock and Alligator River Project, located in Australia. Mulga rock is a 90Mlbs uranium resource with a completed DFS and approvals now in place. Alligator River Project is a 26Mlbs deposit with further exploration potential. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12Months** + +* Included in Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE: URA) +* Completed a A$27.5M Equity Raise and Share Purchase Plan +* Mulga rock development + * Completed metallurgical optimisation test-work for Mulgarock: results look positive + * Early works program commenced + * Mulga Rock Uranium Project Mining Proposal and Mine Closure approved by DMIRS +* Alligator River Project - finalisation of 100% acquisition from RTX +* CEO and CFO stepped down + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* Positive exploration results from Alligator River +* Potential acquisition from a rival + +[Vimy Pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/63guooef0jy71.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbf9da6d90693509f169d60560cdfa7e8c1d0d47) + +[Vimy Resource drilling at Mulga Rock](https://preview.redd.it/6v5uq3qh0jy71.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=08956133c8a2f250d9a553325bca8499daf18686) + +# GTI Resources (GTR) + +**Brief History** + +Minerals explorer with significant prospects: + +* Henry Mountains Uranium & Vanadium, Utah, USA +* ISR Uranium Properties, Wyoming, USA +* Western Niagara Gold Project, WA, AUS + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Commencement of maiden field exploration program at Utah +* Compilation of historic open-file WAMEX records and exploration planning for Western Niagara +* Completed acquisition of Wyoming ISR Acquisition + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* NI Pumps +* Results from Jeffreys and Rat Nest Projects exploration targets in Henry Mountains (drilling Q1, 2022) +* Results from Wyoming Uranium Exploration (drilling during Dec, 2021) +* Potential triple ETF entry + +[GTR Pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/x5ecnyvt0jy71.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=95c11ea2cb746e4e7c7882ee237cf153f2ee5f90) + +# 92 Energy (92E) + +**Brief History** + +Recently IPO’d in April, 92E is a uranium exploration company, exploring for high grade uranium in the Athabasca Basin. Athabasca Basin is considered a tier 1 uranium mining and exploration jurisdiction after discoveries that led to Cigar Lake, Mcarthur River, Arrow and Roughrider deposits. 92E started with 14 mineral claims in three project areas which has grown to 30 claims in five project areas in the last 5 months. They recently made a discovery at the Gemini Mineralised Zone (GMZ) with 5.5m at 0.12% U308 incl 1m @ .28% - 4th hole in their maiden drilling program. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* IPO in April and SP has appreciated by \~150% +* Completed maiden drilling program and discovered on the 4th hole at the Gemini Project +* Pegged an additional 7 claims to expand the Gemini project area +* Completed a VTEM survey over the Tower Project (which is only 11km from Cigar lake) and identifying multiple prospective conductors to assist with new drilling targets +* $7.15m institutional placement at A$0.72 per share +* Appointed Kanan Sarioglu as VP exploration and Steve Blower to the board to strengthen core technical team + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* Planning for next drill program announced +* Additional technical team hire +* Drilling 7,000ma at Gemini in the upcoming Canadian winter drilling season (January - March 2022) +* Potential triple ETF entry + +[92E Pros vs Cons](https://preview.redd.it/ms61qdca1jy71.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8858eebc1038763c26903bd16e49d9329e09f3d) + +# Elevate Uranium (EL8) + +**Brief History** + +Elevate Uranium is a uranium explorer that owns significant resources in Namibia and Australia and has active exploration activities in both areas. Elevate is the largest tenement holder for uranium in Namibia and owns the Marenica Uranium project which is a 61 Mlb resource. Elevate value proposition extends to U-upgrade which is a patented uranium benefician process that has been demonstrated and lowers the cost base for uranium assets. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Completed Airborne electromagnetic survey across Namibia tenements and identified extensive palaeochannel systems for drilling +* Stephen Mann (Geologist with Uranium industry experience) appointed as non-executive director +* Changed name to Elevate Uranium Limited (**best name in the business**) +* Optionholders exercised options providing $2,748,906 cash to the company +* Appointed Dr Andy Wilde as Exploration manager - has worked with Paladin Energy Limited and Deep Yellow Limited in Namibia, Canada and Australia +* Namib IV Discovery - Intersected uranium mineralisation over a palaeochannel length of 17 kilometers within the main paleochannel +* Oobagooma - High-Grade Exploration target identified at Oobagooma (26 to 52 million pounds U3O8 with a grade range of 650 to 950 ppm U3O8 for its 100% owned Oobagooma uranium project.) + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +Namibia + +* Koppies resource drilling results +* Namib drilling results +* Exploration activities in Hirabeb + +Australia + +* Exploration activities in Oobagooma and study results from other tenements + +Potential triple ETF entry in H1 2022 + +https://preview.redd.it/nnn4jv5l1jy71.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cc5e1371e18294060b13722395639f25961b238 + +# Alligator Energy (AGE) + +**Brief History** + +Alligator Energy is a project development and exploration group with uranium projects across South Australia, Northern Territory and a “Ni-Co-Cu-Au-GEs” project in Italy. The Samphire Uranium project in South Australia contains 47Mlb of inferred uranium in two deposits. Alligator Rivers in the Northern Territory contain multiple uranium targets in a well-defined region. Lastly, an EM survey has been conducted across the Big Lake Uranium prospect with drilling planned for H1 2022. + +**Key Activities Last 6-12 Months** + +* Ground magnetics and passive seismic surveys at Blackbush (Sampire project) +* Samphire Project Drilling and testwork approval obtained +* Drilling contractors confirmed to undertake drilling activities in early November for Blackpush (Samphire) +* Completion of airborne EM at Big Lake Uranium with results received, interpretation underway +* Completion of acquisition of EL adjacent to the plumbush deposit, (samphire project) +* Work program approved for geophysics and drilling at Narbarlek North, now planned for early dry 2022 (Alligators rivers) +* Share placement completed, raising a net $10.7M +* Raised an additional $11m in total to fund environmental base-line study recommencement, expand future planned field leach trial with an IX pilot plant, and increase proportion of core drilling +* Geoff Chapman (geologist and BD executive) appointed Samphire Project Manager for the immediate drilling, sampling, extraction testwork, mineral resource estimate update and scoping study + +**Potential Catalysts and Forecast Activities** + +* Drilling results from Blackbush (Samphire Project) +* IP survey and ground gravity updates from Alligator Rivers Uranium province +* Interpretation from Airborne EM at Big Lake Uranium tenement + * If interpretation is good, can expect drilling in H1 2022 +* Potential triple ETF entry in H1 2022 +* Geophysics program results from Piedmont Project, Northern italy + +https://preview.redd.it/1uossomy1jy71.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2f5b8c69713154a9aeecd519fdfac6395163597 + +[AGY Uranium Exploration Projects](https://preview.redd.it/c39uohy02jy71.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d560bb286f26fa4e405248e69727e6964d2bd5) + + + +# Uranium/Nuclear ETFs - ASX Companies + +For the u/ASX_Bets crowd here, most of us don’t know what an ETF is, except that we make fun of u/AusFinance for frothing over their 6% returns. But for the uranium market, ETFs are a very important contributor to some of your asx equity gains. + +An ETF or exchange traded fund works by holding a portfolio of assets (stocks, bonds, physical commodities, funds) that are usually tracked to an index. The portfolio will hold x% of stock AAA and y% of stock BBB and z% of the commodity for a total weighting up to 100% of tracked assets. + +* ^(When the uranium price increases, investors pile into the nuclear/uranium ETFs. If the ETFs trade above their Net Asset Value (NAV) for a period of time they are obliged to buy up additional individual stocks and assets to curve the NAV to fund value.) +* ^(The two major uranium ETFs are URA and URNM and comprise mostly of US/Canadian stocks and funds as well as Kazataprom and Paladin. But as of February-2021 a number of small ASX uranium stocks were included and added to the “buying list”. This is called rebalancing and involves stocks being added (or removed) and changes in % allocations.) +* ^(The ETFs account for significant fund flows into the ASX uranium equities as the whole market is still so small. URA “rebalances” twice per year, usually on the last day of January and July, where URNM can rebalance up to four times or quarterly throughout the year.) + +**Uranium/Nuclear ETFs and the ASX holdings** + +| **The Global X Uranium ETF** (ARCA: URA) | PDN, BOE, BMN, DYL, PEN, LOT, VMY, GGG | +|:-|:-| +| **North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF** (ARCA: URNM) | PDN, BOE, BMN, DYL, LOT, PEN, VMY, TOE | +| **Horizons Global Uranium Index ETF** (TSX: HURA) |DYL, PEN, PDN, BMN, TOE, BOE, LOT, VMY | +| **VanEck Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF** (ARCA: NLR) |PDN| + +Inclusions in ETFs are mostly based on market cap being over a certain value for a period of time and a few other factors. It can be worth looking into the criteria and who is not yet included in an ETF and when/what opportunities might be coming up ;) \*cough \* January 2022 \* Cough. + +For more info on [Uranium ETFs](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l2bbzh/uranium_etfs_and_the_solactive_global_uranium/) see this post and for [past rebalancing see this post here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lbfwwj/global_x_uranium_nuclear_etf_nyseura_is_buying_us/). + + + +**Punt’s Rocket Rating** + +^(Disclaimer: This is NOT financial advice. These are my personal and subjective opinions. Rating is based on a number of factors; some mathematical and financially related, while some are based on opinions of management and projects. These ratings change overtime as company value and progress changes.) + +The rating is out of 5x 🚀. This is not an anticipated number of “x” returns but a rating of what makes up good further potential value return and strong uranium company fundamentals : good management with commodity and company leadership experience, an attractive and achievable project, solid financials, time-frame and upside potential. + +[Punt's Rocket Rating - Nov-21 \*MC and Current price are of 9th Nov 21 ](https://preview.redd.it/3gxqu8683jy71.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c32c4b9b9174db636c04f4ee72d0cf6810e8294) + + May your portfolio radiate green in glowing gains and you be showered in radioactive tendies ☢️🐂📈 +So far, France has vaccinated under 100k people. Polling suggests that 60% don’t want to take the vaccine. Despite having fairly stringent laws to tackle anti-vaxx, France remains one of the most anti-vaxx countries in the world. There is little the government can do to change this, bar legislating forced vaccinations, because anti-vaxx is inherently an opinion that is invariant to evidence, it is an absolute article of faith. + +Herd immunity for Covid is estimated to occur once 60-70% of the population is vaccinated. The chances of this being obtained in France, based on the information that currently exists, is zero. This risk is not priced into markets: the strong assumption of markets is that this will be over by H2. + +The result will likely be the government falling, all borders with France being closed, and the economy shrinking significantly as it becomes impossible to offset the damage with fiscal action. + +Even once this occurs, it is very hard to see what the government will, realistically, be able to do or what pressure other countries in Europe will be able to exert. To take WFH as an example: France has lacked any ability to implement WFH, it was briefly adopted for a few weeks last year, and then lobbying from companies began and it was dropped. Paris offices are actually putting through price increases. + +The problem is not limited to France. Scepticism of vaccines is relatively high in Italy. The government has taken an active approach which has meant a high level of vaccinations but it is not the first 100k that matters, it is the last few million required for herd immunity. Spain has low levels of anti-vaxx but has struggled to organise a response, again this is likely structural but an issue that may get easier over time (in contrast to anti-vaxx which gets harder over time). Greece also looks very weak, although the wider consequence of that may be limited. All three are worth tracking closely. + +By contrast, Britain is well ahead of Europe. The UK has the low levels of vaccine scepticism in between-country surveys. Within-country polling suggests that the UK will easily achieve herd immunity. So far, implementation has been effective with the rush to give the first jab resulting in over 2m vaccinations so far (numbers vary, 2-3m). As a result, Britain is likely to be the first major economy to hit herd immunity through vaccination. + +Additionally, investors should consider the growth delta with last year. The UK economy was worst hit by Covid because our economy has relatively high levels of consumption. People stayed home, demand sank, and the saving rate went from essentially zero to \~30%. The government has stepped in to maintain supply. Demand has not gone anywhere: \~£100bn is sitting in consumer's bank accounts, waiting for the economy to reopen. The return to growth will be swift, and will be significantly in excess of market estimates. + +So what should investors do? + +The first option is shorting EUR/GBP or EUR/AUD. The recent path of the BoE, which has totally misjudged what is happening with the UK economy in their desire to move to negative rates, makes the timing of a EUR/GBP trade tricky. Once the BoE has reported out on negative rates, hopefully in the negative, I think this trade would be safer. + +AUD looks far more promising: growth is recovering there, and you have even further upside of commodity price reflation from China. If global growth slowed, I think the AUD position would be relatively safe (typically, commodity currencies have high beta so it can be a correlated trade). The only risk is that the RBA has been relatively dovish, and may feel trapped by the Fed. The weak fundamentals in Europe should overwhelm this risk. + +Outside of individual names, I think equities don’t express this position well. CAC40 has a lot of international exposure, so the play would be the effect on investor sentiment rather than fundamentals. The UK market below the 100 is attractive but stocks with high exposure to domestic demand are going to be most undervalued: housebuilders, leisure and domestic travel. + +One interesting play is airlines: a strong summer is basically essential at this point but what if Europe is still shutdown into 2022? As an example, Jet2 has very high levels of exposure to UK-Spain flights. If parts of Europe were to shutdown, particularly Spain and Greece, airlines would struggle hugely. My suspicion is that the recovery in international travel will be slower than the market is expecting, and that large countries struggling with anti-vaxx will essentially shut down most international travel. + +It is tricky to get exposure to France’s inevitable implosion. French equity markets are very shallow although there are retailers/shopping centres: for example, Darty...something to consider though is that levels of online retail penetration are very low in France. Maybe this creates a large delta in demand but it also means you aren’t seeing the same secular implosion story as with the US or UK. + +An outside option are other countries that are doing well with managing the virus: Taiwan and Korea have seen massive rises in their equity markets. New Zealand and Australia have also done relatively well. A risk with the former is currency strength: this isn’t fatal, this is a reflection of relative strength but it is also something that central banks in the region watch closely. So the latter grouping of developed economies may be preferable. China is another option, growth is back on the pre-Covid trend but I am very negative on China beyond the short-term. + +Therfore, currencies and a basket of equities are the most reasonable options. Direct exposure to France is going to be difficult to obtain so the equity portion should mainly be UK equities. + +Investors should also consider the US and Japan. Neither are part of my main thesis for reasons that I will elaborate below but both are situations worth tracking into late Februrary/March. + +Rates of anti-vaxx in the US are worryingly high: in hospitals, some surveys suggest that 50% of nurses won’t get the vaccine. In my view, this will change but there is scope, as with Italy, for this risk to compound over time, probably around March. Given the political climate, it is also likely that this becomes politically charged. The current narrative in the US is all about stimulus, falling government bond prices, and potential inflation. It seems likely that a stimulus bill will pass, and at that point the downside potential will return as the economy fails to recover in H2. Right now, it isn’t possible to take a view. Wait until its raining to bring out the umbrella (and btw, if it does begin raining then it will be torrential, the mountain of corporate debt means that the US would see large defaults in 2021/22 *without* weak growth). + +Japan has higher levels of anti-vaxx and relatively low levels of government authority in dealing with public health issues. For example: there is a possibility that vaccinations become compulsory in France, that scenario is (based on my understanding of Japanese politics) not possible under any circumstance. Japan has many ongoing trends: very strong corporates, rising PE involvement, rising activist involvement, BoJ strategy change, Tokyo 2021...so it is difficult to know what trend will win out. Issues with anti-vaxx seems inevitable, I have no idea what the effect will be on markets. +Our currency is at record low and the inflation is double digit. The tax cut is not going to compensate the depreciation of GBP. What is your plan? + +We automatically get pay cuts with GBP weakening everyday. The UK is a net importer and such a weak currency is causing crazy inflation. +I don’t really get why people sell their shares of NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL… when they have done their DD and believe in the growth of the company. I’m not talking about people that are clueless and don’t know how to trade. + +If you know that the company will keep growing in the future, what’s the point in selling at a loss in times of rough market if you know that it won’t go bankrupt ? Why not just wait + +EDIT : well, this post aged like fine wine with the market recovering and the Dow nearly green and nasdaq +2% +1. Avoid jewellery at all cost , when you go to sell expect 20 percent of its value to disappear + +2. Avoid buying coins from reputed jewellers online or from banks . Buy only .995 purity coins of the highest weight you can afford. That too from a primary dealer . You save a lot on making charges and margins . + +3. Sovereign gold bonds beat all gold etf’s. +https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/decoding-nse-chitra-ramkrishnas-mysterious-guru/article65046366.ece/amp/ + +She claims that she was guided by an invisible, shape-shifting Himalayan Yogi who could manifest any where at will and who guided her management decisions. What in God's sweet name, was SEBI doing, and how did the NSE Board greenlight her actions? + +What's actually going on? It's obvious that the Yogi bit is a coverup and she's being fed this by her handlers. What a joke our financial markets are. 🤷‍♀️ + +An excerpt from one of his emails about "managing" the FinMin, PMO and FIs: +"We need to make noises on self-listing by knocking on the doors of FM, PMO Somanathan, Cabinet Secretary, Economic Advisor, and finally the PM. These are not difficult as you think we must do two people in a mix at a time Kanchan will evaluate as per MY will. ‘Straw knows when to be a capillary and when NOT to.’ Kanchan is the straw and I will be the suction force for this and you will vomit all that is required as always. After doing rounds intermittently we must sound SEBI that ministry is also pressing for listing even if we need to do these adjustments..(self Listing),” said an email dated December 4, 2015 from the ‘yogi’ to Ramkrishna. +Some time ago I made [this post where I looked for advice](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/bibpfa/successful_startup_investment_3835m/) on a startup investment that was doing really well. At the time consensus was to hold on to -at least part of- the investment. I ended up holding on to all of it. Especially the replies by u/bwc150 and u/Miposian and a couple of others (some of which are deleted by now) really helped clarify things and contributed to this decision. + +Long story short, I ended up selling last month for 7.5M, putting my net worth slightly above 11M after taxes. + +Can't thank the community here enough, I really feel I might have taken the 1M if the (conservative) FF crowd didn't react the way it did! + + +Well done internet strangers! +[https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3](https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3) + +Assuming we could know the date a piece of real estate goes underwater (literally) how far out would that property begin losing value? 30 years? 40 years? why? +I have bounced around on this sub for the past few months and I really to have to say it’s disappointing. + +I mostly index, because I recognize few people can beat the market. I pick stocks for 5% of my portfolio and thought this would be a breath of fresh air compared to r/stocks. I was wrong. This sub really seems to be pretty low quality in terms of discussion, and many people seem to chase returns without a fundamental understanding of investing. + +Most people seem to be under the impression that “big company” + “low PE” = great investment. The impulse to chase the most recent shiny thing in the news is so clear. + +For a sub that really presents itself on a model made popular by Warren Buffet, many don’t seem to follow his philosophy at all. +“The rich get richer and the poor get poorer” + +What kind of investments do they do to win and profit off an UPCOMING economic downturn? Thinking of 2008 and the Great Depression specifically, or any time the rich got richer and the poor got poorer. I’m wondering how… + +Do they hoard on gold first? Buy real estate? Buy competing businesses? Increase their debt as leverage? + +I watched a few videos on this subject, seems to be all over the place. Not looking for a secret formula, but maybe an explanation of what you think and why. + +I read about debt. Some of the “winners” bought a bunch of properties to amass as much debt as they could, so that when a recession would hit, they’d end-up paying so much less. But then my question is, if before a crash properties are super inflated at the start, does that mean they purchase huge amount of over valued properties on debt hoping for it to crash? How does that even make sense / work if you can’t even pay the mortgages? + +My gut says I should be doing at least one of the above in the coming months… +I have an AirBnB vacation home in the GA Mountains, bought in 2020 and it was occupied roughly 60% of days up until last month. Bookings have absolutely fallen off a cliff and I’m wondering if anyone else is experiencing this? Had 4 nights in June an nothing past July 4th on the books. +Considerations for myself personally + +\- Low tax (salary, dividends, capital gains). I currently run a small business in Asia (Hong Kong). Don't mind having to tax plan carefully, just want to the option to limit paying tax. + +\- Warm climate (Med?). Warm, not too much rain, good sunshine hours per year. + +\- Ability to buy property in the countryside to start a homestead. + +\- Ability to meet people, both local and expat alike + +\- Low cost of living +The way I understand it, Venezuela was once a very oil rich country with high wealth inequality. Chávez increased the size of the welfare state in order to help the poor, and ran a pretty big budget defecit. Their economy broke down when oil prices collapsed in the 2010s and the problems were further exacerbated by corruption and economic mismanagement. + +My question is, why didn't countries like Norway, which also distributed its oil wealth to the people, have a similar economic crash when oil prices collapsed? Obviously Norway doesn't have the corruption, but its economy is similarly oil based and never diversified and I belive they have a pretty big welfare state. What made Venezuela special? +Hey everyone + + +It’s my first time posting in this group and I apologise in advance if this is lengthy but I want to get this off my chest. I was born in a low income single parent household. I love my parent and they are great but there is one major issue I have with them. And it’s that I have come to realise that they chose to be in the economic position that they are in. + +Let me explain further since I’m not sure many could relate. My parent has openly said that they have declined opportunities that could have led to a more comfortable life on the basis of they oppose supporting the “system” (I.e government, capitalism). This would be all fine and dandy if they didn’t have kids. But to chose a struggle life in which housing security in my opinion is lowkey selfish. They got a job when I went to secondary school but chose to work the bare minimum hours needed to survive because they feel like they were not made for work and didn’t want to pay tax. + +Anyway the point is, the chickens have come home to roost. Since they refused to put away money retirement since they saw adding a pension as a way of being robbed, they are most likely going to work until they are dead. They have no funeral insurance and they are in arrears on their rent. + +I try and help but I am studying at university whilst working minimum wage (I don’t live at home) and I am trying to set up myself financially. But I am beginning to resent stuff like my emergency fund is not just for me, it’s for them just incase they get even worse. I am scared of how I will be able to afford one day taking more and more of their expenses. My other siblings can’t help because they have adopted my parent’s poor misuse of money so the bulk of financially bailing out this parent falls on me. + +I guess I’m writing this because I don’t know how to prepare and it is stressing me out. I know the world we live in is trash and I understand their contempt but it’s actually done more harm than good. Sometimes they boast about being an outsider of the system and a part of me wants to scream at them and say “well as a result of your actions it’s me who has to clean up this mess you have made”. I’m sorry if I sound selfish and I’ll probably calm down after a goodnights sleep. But it’s so aggravating that this person chose to live like this when there are those who had no choice. + +Anyway rant over. Here’s a medal 🏅 for those who made it this far!!! + +Edit 1: OMG thank you ALL so so much for your responses! I am so so happy I’m not alone in this. The overwhelming response is to cut the parent off which one of my siblings actually did do because of this situation. But I saw how it killed my parent. They missed their child and not for the money. So maybe I’m a wimp but I don’t have the gall to do that. + +Instead I’ll enforce boundaries. I will avoid alluding to my financial situation. I love my parent but as many of you said, I can’t sacrifice myself to help them. + +Edit 2: I want to add that I DONT HATE MY PARENT. They tried their best despite their limitations/flaws and I don’t have the heart to hate them. However the consequences, especially since COVID, have become more real. And if I’m honest- I do feel guilty I feel resentment but I know from seeing these comments that it’s natural to. + +Thanks again guys! (And thanks for the awards) +I don’t have anyone to celebrate with but I want to say woohoo woohoo I’m getting there, I’m getting there! I’m there, I’m there! Lol last year I was proud to have saved $100 and now I’ve saved $10,000! + +How much do you think is a good amount to have before looking for a single family house? (I am pre-approved in the $160-170k price range and these are around the prices I’ve seen for 3-4 bedrooms in my area). How do I learn about the market in my area? What are some other things I should learn before house hacking? + +Edit: thank you all so much for congratulating and celebrating me 😊 and as always, for giving me advice. Y’all are awesome! +Real estate prices soared into unbelievable levels between 1990-2000. People who bought lands before then become millionaires and millionaires before billionaires. But other than 20 year time period, has real estate ever been that profitable? + +Three examples I have seen : + + +1. I have seen many people having lakhs and sometimes even crores worth of empty land earning absolutely nothing and they work for around ₹75000 per month and then lamenting there is no opportunity. + + +2. I know of a family who have an ancestral land that is worth lots of money. But three generations of the family have never seen a single rupee from that plot of land. I mean if you, your parents and your grandparents and even your children have not profited from an investment, that investment is pretty much worthless in my opinion. + +3. Retired people taking all their retirement money and then taking a loan to buy a flat which probably gives 1-2% rental yield. +Hello everyone. I (30F) am getting married in a few months. Right now my fiancé and I make approximately the same salary (50k/year) and split all expenses evenly for the house we own together. + +However, I am a resident physician and in two years when my training is finished my salary is going to increase to around 300k. We both grew up in low income households. He is not an outlandish spender but is not that interested in financial planning. I, on the other hand, have a lot of anxiety regarding money. I am the one who started our rewards credit card (we pay off every month), signed up for retirement matching through my employer, opened a Roth IRA, and high yield savings account. + +While I plan on spending my life with him, I am not naive about the divorce rate in our country. I feel like I am doing a lot of work to make us financially sound but I also bring a lot of student loan debt to the table (350k). + +So my question is should I ask for a prenup? Will I even make enough for a prenup to matter? or is this just my anxiety? He is incredibly supportive and I don’t want him to feel like I expect us to fail. But on the other hand I put myself through school and went through a lot of hardship to get where I am. Help! +Hi all, + +so I am often reading the contributions on FatFIRE. And there people are describing compensation packages which sound fantastical, if I compare them with what there is in Europe (even converting USD to EUR at a rate of 1.2). Like you have stories that if you start as a software engineer at a FAANG, you are already at 250k USD to start with and then can go up to 1MM. These numbers are so high in my view, I really have to question the sanity of the employer to be willing to pay this much or to ask myself, what can objectively be expected from the employee to contribute to the enterprise value to justify such a compensation package (even if I imagine that an American works 80 hours a week it still sounds insane). + +The only way in (western) Europe that I can see you are earning somewhere north of 150k EUR Gross is if you are: + +1. A top politician (e.g. MPs in the EP make like 16k per month = 192k EUR) +2. A Director / Senior Manager / C-level executive of at-least a mid sized enterprise, where you should be getting a compensation of about 140k and more +3. You are a private practice Lawyer / Tax advisor / Auditor (i.e. Partner rank) or a Doctor (e.g. Dentist), who is at-least somewhat successful, in that case you should be easily hitting 120k EUR + +Still all the examples citied above are those of very successful people, who had to normally work for over a decade to achieve their status and / or had to clear very stringent requirements to enter their profession (like in Germany an Auditor / Tax Advisor / Lawyer would need to pass some super hard exams beyond simply their university education). But here is no profession I can think off where you would clear at-least 83k EUR gross (about 100k USD), right off the bet out of the uni (perhaps software developer at a large corporation?). Would love to hear some opinions on this. +Welcome to the ETH Daily Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here. Please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or support issues. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior **should be reported** and redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To visit this thread, [follow this link](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +* For newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum, you can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* **[EXPERIMENTAL]** - To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Hours cut due to covid same as wife's hours, no food, car troubles got worst, and family problems to top it off my mom is on her death bed I do not know a way out at all I'm trying to stay calm for my wife but inside I'm freaking out its putting a strain on our relationship I feel like if one more bad thing was to happen to us I would give up is how I'm feeling I dont think I could handle it just wanted to put this out somewhere love you guys stay safe. + + +UPDATE: talked with hr and was told I cant get partial unemployment because we are still working 40 hours use to work six days a week now to five that one extra day of work means alot. I was doing fine its crazy how one day can impact so much I've just had a really bad run with luck the last few weeks and the comments and messages have really helped me out mentally talked to my wife she understands and now we are making a budget which we have never done I'm lucky to have her. I just want to say thank you to everyone here so much I was able to pay people back get food and get gas you guys have saved me literally. also I have reached a hotline and set up a visit over the phone but nonetheless I got a therapist lined up low cost and first visit free. Thank you, everyone +Lesson one is "stock basics" summarized: (2 videos) for every buyer there's a seller, for every seller there's a buyer, fear and greed drives prices, what fundamental analysis means, what technical analysis means. + + +lesson 2 is ETFs summarized: (video 1) Bull markets are opportunities, bear markets are bigger opportunity's, Bear markets never last, always followed by bull market. (video 2) The market is volatile in the short term in the long term it always goes up, what an ETF is, different types of ETF indexes. (video 3) Expands on the different types of ETFs (bonds, commodities etc). (video 3) A 35min video on dollar cost averaging lol. (Video 5) summarizing the last 4 videos. + + +Lesson 3 is Steps to investing summarized: (video 1) A good business increases value over time, a valuable business has higher sales, earnings and cashflow. (video 2) invest in businesses that are undervalued or fairly valued, stocks trade below its value because investors have negative perception of the company + + +lesson 4 Financials summarized (all 4 videos) where to find financials, how to use a website (Morning Star) to screen stocks, how good is the company at making money, Look for companies that have growing revenue, check growth profit margin and net profit margin of company compared to industry. + + +Lesson 5 Stock Valuation summarized (2 videos) go here: [https://tradebrains.in/dcf-calculator/](https://tradebrains.in/dcf-calculator/) and look at what the calculator is asking for, go to Morning Star find the needed numbers that are required, bam you got the intrinsic vale. + + +Lesson 6 Technical Analysis summarized: (all 4 videos) What are candles sticks, what do they mean, support and ceilings, consolidation levels. + + +Lesson 7 The 7 step formula summarized: (3 videos) See what I wrote in lesson 3 and lesson 5. + + +lesson 8 Winning portfolio summarized summarized: (video 1) Diversify, keep portfolio balanced, different sectors (video 2) More sectors, Dividends (video 3) More on sectors, more on dividends, what are different stock caps (large cap, small cap etc) + + +Lesson 9 finding opportunities summarized: (video 1) see lesson 3, (video 2) creating a watch list,monitor news, company announcements, stock price, financials + + +Lesson 10 psychology of success summarized: (2 videos) basically: common sense. + + +Lesson 11 Finding a broker summarized: (1 video) look at fees and commissions, see minimum deposit, check margin rates, make sure it has a good trading platform. + + +I just saved you 18 hours and $1000. +Many people I see go into a store to buy one or two things, and come out with way more than they anticipated, with the excuse "oh I saved money! It was all on sale!". + +If you we're going to get the item anyway, yes you saved money, but if you didn't plan on it, you still spent money you didn't have to. + +EDIT: You could also set a budget, $150 for example. If you're going into a store, don't bring your card, only bring cash so you're not tempted to go over your limit. (Edit of an edit: Someone mentioned you could miss out on some rewards or promotions if you don't have your card, so I wonder what another way to limit yourself other than willpower would be?) + +EDIT 2: Thank you all so much for the support on this post, I tried replying to the comments at the start but it became overwhelming with the amount of comments coming in, thank you all for your input and advice to others! + +ANOTHER EDIT: Thank you kind one for the gold! My first ever <3 +I received a job offer out of college as a System Support Engineer with a company in my area. The pay scale started at $X and I was offered $X. The scale increases by experience. I have worked in a similar job through college for 1.25 years, and it should qualify as this experience is a main reason the new company hired me. + +My issue: I have no idea how to quantify this, and I am comfortable with the lowest pay offered. I know I am worth more, but right out of college, I'm fearful that the company will not see it that way. I have no problem being direct if that's what it takes, but I'm not sure how to get there. Any advice, or similar situations would be greatly appreciated! + +Thanks in advance guys and gals + +UPDATE: THEY CALLED SOONER THAN PLANNED. I asked for 11% and told them I would be comfortable meeting somewhere in the middle, and they accepted 11%! You guys rock. Thank you for all of the help! + +UPDATE 2: I am happy with the outcome, but I should have stood my ground and asked firmly for what I want. There is some very valuable advice in these comments to anyone else in this situation! Thank you so much to all users who chipped in advice. im ready to be a big boy!! +So at 7:30 yesterday morning my father fell, I helped him up and said we were going to go to the hospital, I got him to my vehicle and put him in the front seat said I love you dad, he said he loved me. Then I shut the door, my mom screamed His name and I looked to see him in what appeared to be a stroke…we ran every stop sign and every light until we saw the ambulance (we live far out) they managed to get his pulse back but by the time we got to the hospital it was too late. + +He was everything to me and to see him transition from a denier and calling me a moron last January to the last few months he was all about it and was thrilled to see everything I had been reading and saying coming true. + +I will hold for him and to make the world better. I was excited for the possibility for him to retire and not stress but alas things don’t always go how you plan and if this doesn’t pan out like we think then so be it but I will continue to strive for accountability and true personal freedom. + +This community has been the closest thing I have had through a terrible year, this isn’t a karma farm or anything I honestly don’t care I just miss my dad and was glad he had become an ape in the end. + +I love you dad. +**~~EDIT May 12, 2021~~**~~:~~ [~~SR-OCC-2021-004 Is Scheduled to Finalize This Week~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/napco9/srocc2021004_finalizes_this_week_is_this_the/) ~~^(Also, I have been banned from Superstonk...)~~ + +**EDIT May 18, 2021**: I have been unbanned; thanks for all the folks who reached out and thanks to the mods! + +We've made it through an exciting weekend of suspense only to end up with yet another day of sideways trading. I'd like to examine why I think we have not yet launched based on the bits and pieces that we know. + +In this post, I'll be rehashing some of my earlier posts for folks who haven't read them and also examining my earlier thoughts in the context of the information we've come across over the last two weeks. + +One of my favorite topics in science is black holes. [Black holes had been theorized to exist soon after Einstein's theory of General Relativity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole#General_relativity). [Until 2019, the existence of black holes was known, but never actually seen](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/chandra/news/black-hole-image-makes-history). So how did we know where to look? Even though we can't actually see the black hole and even though it may be millions of light years away, we can observe how bodies of mass interact with it, how it affects the space around it, the energy that is dissipated from the black hole, and other signatures of its existence. + +The GME MOASS is like a black hole in more ways than one. We can only speculate on what is happening based on how the different entities in this system are interacting. Let's revisit my earlier post with some new data points. + +# Who Are the Entities Circling this Black Hole? + +On APR13, u/jamiegirl21 posted [this S-4 filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001834518/000119312521109685/d121216ds4.htm) for [a merger with Apex Clearing](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq4gfi/sec_filing_merger_with_brokarage_detailing/). + +Check out page 84: + +[\\"Apex, along with over 30 other brokerages...including...Citadel and DTCC engaged in a coordinated conspiracy...\\"](https://preview.redd.it/g3p76sl7n6u61.png?width=906&format=png&auto=webp&s=61d82b61305ceeb4bf9e4568b447c0887782e787) + +While this is *alleged* at the moment, what is clear is that some law firm(s) believes that there is a case against multiple entities -- including the DTCC -- for conspiring to shut down the JAN28 squeeze. + +Set aside the idea that Citadel or the GME shorts alone can suppress the price of GME; if that were the case, we would not have even had the JAN and FEB spikes in the first place since Citadel and the shorts alone could have stopped it. + +As I have mentioned in my previous posts, rather than thinking of the situation as "*Citadel is shorting the market*" or "*It's a battle between Short HF and Long Whales!*" to "*DTC, OCC, SEC,* ***and*** *the shorts are preparing for the squeeze*". + +Literally every major entity in global banking is entangled in this through the DTCC. Even the non-DTCC members are entangled as they use DTCC members for clearing their trades. + +* DTC: [https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) +* OCC: [https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory](https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory) + +Just a cross section: + +|*Member*|*DTC*|*OCC*| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Apex Clearing|✔|✔| +|Barclays|✔|✔| +|Bank of America|✔|✔| +|Charles Schwab|✔|✔| +|Citadel Clearing|✔|✔| +|Citadel Securities|✔|✔| +|Credit Suisse Securities|✔|✔| +|Deutsche Bank|✔|✔| +|Goldman Sachs|✔|✔| +|Interactive Brokers|✔|✔| +|JP Morgan|✔|✔| +|Merrill Lynch|✔|✔| +|Robinhood Securities|✔|✔| +|TD Ameritrade|✔|✔| +|UBS Securities|✔|✔| +|Vanguard|✔|✔| + +# How Are They Preparing? + +The fallout from this squeeze is that there are multiple DTCC members who are going to fail and default (we'll see some possible evidence of this in a moment). When this happens, the DTCC or corresponding subsidiary (hereafter just referred to as DTCC) will step in to manage the default through Recovery and Wind Down Procedures which are documented in their member agreements. + +During the squeeze, the DTCC will intervene and provide immediate liquidity when a member defaults. In turn, DTCC will use the assets of the defaulting members as collateral for that liquidity (which itself may originate outside of DTCC). Those assets from the defaulting member will then be auctioned off to recover those loans. + +[SR-OCC-2021-004 page 4: \\"OCC is proposing...to clarify and further facilitate the process of on-boarding Clearing Members and non-Clearing Members as potential bidders in future auctions of a suspended Clearing Member's remaining portfolio\\"](https://preview.redd.it/6lr1elrbn6u61.png?width=532&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c44a3b19bee31d50d2ea5e97963da4d377f2272) + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 11: \\"...to address losses arising out of the default of a DTC Participant...\[t\]he proposed rule change would add a sentence...DTC may, in extreme circumstances, borrow net credits from Participants secured by collateral of the defaulting Participant\\"](https://preview.redd.it/jwcjavojn6u61.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e6b2d668b9106566a5442677b6d7c8338ab48dc) + +If you are interested in diving deeper into this, [check out my earlier post on the topic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/). + +But let's talk about **why** this is interesting. + +There are generally three views on what is about to happen: + +1. The entire system and the banks are going to go belly up because of the scenario described in the [Everything Short DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) so these additional billions are to buffer them from collapse +2. The banks are reacting to increased liquidity requirements stemming from last year and the expiration of SLR +3. A few entities are probably going to collapse due to overexposed positions and other entities are moving into position to profit from that collapse + +My sense is that #1 is a bit too extreme. Having gone through 2001 and 2008, I have learned one lesson: the rich will not allow themselves and this system that props them up to fail because they are dependent on this system to support their bottom lines and lifestyles. **What alternative do they have?** The Yuan? The Euro? The GBP? The Yen? The Ruble? Crypto? What are you going to do with that Doge or Bitcoin if you can't convert it to an actual currency? How are you going to buy your lattes from Starbucks with Doge? There is no alternative. + +That said, we are at a nexus of multiple blows potentially impacting these financial institutions and GME is just one possible primer that sets off the chain reaction. + +I think it is most likely a combination of #2 and #3. What if: + +1. You are a non-defaulting member +2. And You **know** that there are going to be member defaults +3. And you **know** that that there will be an auction for their assets at a market discount + +How would **you** prepare for this? Perhaps you'd want to have cash on hand to meet liquidity requirements and emerge from any collapse flush with assets? How might you go about this? + +* [What if you're Goldman Sachs? Wouldn't it be nice to have an extra $10.6B cash on hand?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-27/goldman-sold-10-5-billion-of-stocks-in-block-trade-spree) +* [What if you're JP Morgan? How does $13B of cash sound?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-sell-13-billion-bonds-184602000.html) +* [What if you're Bank of America? Why not add $15B to your warchest?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/bofa-to-set-record-for-largest-bank-bond-sale-at-15-billion) +* [What if you're Morgan Stanley? How about loading up on $5B?](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html) + +Then there's [the curious case of the increased short volume of BlackRock's IXG ETF which is a basket of finance and banking stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mr6pz6/world_war_whale_explanation_of_95_short_volume/). + +What is important is to understand the difference between **short interest** and **short volume**. [Squeezemetrics' white paper does a great job of explaining this](https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/download/pdf/short_is_long.pdf): + +[\\"Thus short volume is actually representative of investor buying volume\\"](https://preview.redd.it/vrpqxaonn6u61.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f573ab8d8ebf5a1aa5fb31f70ceda5f4240e769) + +The purpose of a Market Maker is to provide liquidity. Say you want to buy a bunch of IXG. Rather than waiting precisely for a seller of the same exact block size to enter a sell order that mirrors your buy order, they create the short (an "IOU") and hand you the shares and then close the IOU when they can round up the shares. + +Thus this increase in short volume indicates demand for IXG which the Market Maker is fulfilling using a short which they will balance by buying shares. + +u/choompop highlights something interesting about IXG: + +>Berkshire Hathaway, **JPMorgan Chase & Co**, **Bank of America**, AIA Group, Wells Fargo, Citigroup HSBC Holdings, Royal Bank of Canada, **Morgan Stanley**, Commonwealth Bank of America +> +>*Twist:* **The 2nd largest institutional owner of JPMorgan is Black Rock Inc. with 192 million shares. The 3rd largest institutional owner of Bank of America is Black Rock Inc. with 509 million shares.** + +You might be thinking of the DD highlighting that Warren Buffett dumped many bank stocks over the last year, but keep in mind that he also notoriously dumped airline stocks near their lows at the outset of the pandemic. + +# How Do They Know There Will Be a Default and Who Will Default? + +How can we know which of those two scenarios above is more likely? No one can say with certainty what will happen except for a few very privileged insiders. Everything I've hypothesized can get blown away tomorrow. But we can consider some of the evidence that we *can* observe and see where it leads us. + +Tucked into SR-DTC-2021-004 is an interesting bit of text on page 12: + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 12: \\"in light of observations from simulation of Participant defaults\\" and \\"multi-member closeout simulation exercise\\"](https://preview.redd.it/indix74rn6u61.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d0ed8ed4d943a3dd7d4db349d4e89221808fed4) + +They have an existing model that they can use to simulate market conditions and it is possible that they have already simulated the squeeze and the aftermath. My assumption is that they also have some idea of the probabilities of which of their member entities are going to fail, when they will fail, how they will fail, and how much liquidity they need to contain these defaults. + +This proposed change would "*shift the timing of management's review of the Corridor Indicators and related metrics from annually to biennially*". What are these Corridor Indicators? + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 12: \\"Corridor Indicators include, for example, the effectiveness and speed of DTC's efforts to liquidate Collateral securities...due to any Participant Default\\"](https://preview.redd.it/a1yz0estn6u61.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=b89ca4fe5a4dba1ae41fb57f8db5a109ea8578f1) + +The key indicator called out as an example is *how quickly DTC can liquidate a defaulting member's collateral assets.* *We* don't know who will default, but I think that DTCC members have an idea. Think about that. + +SR-DTC-2021-004 was filed on **2021MAR29** and effective immediately. **They have long been planning for the defaults that will occur as a result of the squeeze.** + +Of course, models can be wrong. I have read in Michael Lewis' *Panic* that the financial models involved in the 2008 collapse didn't account for the fact that real estate value could go down and the effect of that downturn on over-leveraged positions. + +# What Does This Have To Do With Trading Sideways? + +Two weeks ago, I posted [Why are we trading sideways? Why is the borrow rate so low? When will we moon?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mkvgew/why_are_we_trading_sideways_why_is_the_borrow/) because I was puzzled why we seemed to be stuck in a monetary [Lagrange Point](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_point) and I stated then: + +>What you can take away from this is that we will not see significant price movement up or down for the foreseeable future until OCC-004 and OCC-003 are in place; you are literally fighting against all of Wall Street, even the GME long institutions. There is literally no point buying deep OTM options until there is a whiff of OCC-004 and OCC-003 getting close to implementation. We will keep trading sideways, borrow rate will be inexplicably low, volume will be absent, etc. until DTC and OCC members are protected and they let off the brakes; Citadel and GME shorts are not and have not been in control. DTC, OCC, and all non-defaulting members have been preparing for the default of GME shorts. + +Since that time, we've had the drop to $140 and then more or less back into a stasis point. Millions in options will have expired OTM. + +I had pointed out the timing and coordination of the two prior drops and now we have a third set of data points to consider: + +1. The dip to $120 coordinated with the Q4 earnings and an almost immediate return to stasis +2. The dip to $160 coordinated with the positive Q1 preliminary results and an almost immediate return to stasis +3. And now the slow dip to $140 possibly coordinated with: 1) Melvin's Q1 results, 2) Sherman being denied his shares and being replaced, 3) the early discharge of their long term debt, and 4) DFV's options being exercised. + +Now it appears we're back to sitting in a new Lagrange Point and trading sideways again. + +[Is this a Long Whale inflicting \\"max pain\\"? Or simply multiple parties conspiring to establish \\"max stability\\"; to keep us in this Lagrange Point while waiting for all of the firewalls to be in place and positioning to profit from this event before we ignite the boosters?](https://preview.redd.it/vh5cer8dp6u61.png?width=1633&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ab005f0648da980401c786b4d9a06fecf3039d9) + +As I've stated before, I think that the variety of tools that we see at play are all part of the arsenal being deployed by multiple parties coordinating to keep this strapped down until the non-defaulting members are firewalled. The deep ITM calls, the dark pool trades, all of it is plainly visible to DTCC and the SEC yet no action is being taken. + +[DFV's tweet on APR08 is very interesting (turn on audio)](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1380196363774918657): + +>Why is this happening to me?" +> +>"It's OK bud, it's just from the medicine, OK" +> +>"Is this going to be forever?" +> +>"No, it won't be forever" + +Are these SRs "the medicine" that we're waiting for "forever"? + +I think if we look at the actions over the last few weeks -- for example, the additional liquidity acquired in recent weeks by some of the major entities like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan -- it seems exceedingly plausible that everyone wanted time to prepare for this event, especially because of the expiration of SLR and the approaching date of the SEC memo that goes into effect on APR22 converging in one window. + +# What About the Share Recall or [INSERT CATALYST]? + +My conjecture has always been that we will be waiting for SR-OCC-2021-003 and SR-OCC-2021-004 ***as long as possible*** because these two codify key changes to the OCC member agreement to contain the fallout of the defaulting members. + +In particular, SR-OCC-2021-004 has a very curious proposed change on page 5: + +[SR-OCC-2021-004 page 5: \\"OCC proposes to eliminate the pre-qualification requirements related to non-Clearing Member's trading experience\\"](https://preview.redd.it/qm5jztiqp6u61.png?width=524&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd14cbf5b6642620e09959f55dd995c3666b4679) + +Which basically blows the auction process wide open and allows [a much broader array of bidders to the auction](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mit0eu/the_everything_shortcontinued_citadel_spacs_and/). Remember: Fidelity and BlackRock are **NOT** members of OCC but now they get a streamlined path to the auction. + +I think that in an *ideal world*, BR and Cohen want to wait until SR-OCC-2021-004 is codified to launch and in fact, perhaps thought that everything could have been finalized by now and they would be able to ignite this launch sequence. SIG threw a wrench into this by objecting to SR-OCC-2021-003, thereby pushing out its finalization which **would have been APR10** (45 calendar days from FEB24) setting us up potentially for **this week** if 004 had also been finalized but now could go out to MAY31. + +We are now running into the issue of the calendar and the shareholder meeting since some number of shares will likely have to be recalled in the next few days. + +# What Will BlackRock and GME Longs Do? + +This is where it gets interesting. + +[Here's Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock on CNBC talking about Reddit and GameStop](https://youtu.be/yEgo08b19E8?t=207): + +[\\"...reddit and gamestop and what does that mean with our clients either...\\"](https://preview.redd.it/imiyzrdvp6u61.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=e37b48653042d099e0e5d7c8cc5108b72ea3bdb1) + +BlackRock knows what's going on at the highest levels. + +I have a hunch that the [early payoff of GME's long term debt](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-voluntary-early-redemption-senior-notes-0) may not have been the initial plan because perhaps they were going to use the share recalls to trigger the squeeze. But I think that there's a chance that we may see BR and other institutional longs choose to **not** recall their shares OR wait until the last possible moment to execute the recall because it's too early to launch. + +With the delay in SR-OCC-2021-003, this may have forced them to put another tool into play: the crypto-dividend by taking a page out of the Overstock playbook. Thus they prepared this play at the cost of $216M so that they have another tool to be able to initiate the squeeze if they do not recall their shares. + +I think that GME board will delay action as long as possible because the conditions are simply not favorable at the moment. They were even less favorable in JAN, but it is possible that at that time, no one quite knew the full depth of the situation otherwise the same shenanigans going on now would have happened in JAN and FEB. Prior to JAN28, the assumption may have been that a few small HFs would fail. After JAN28, it was clear that the stakes were much, much higher and I have an idea why we've been trading sideways since MAR16. + +# What Happened on March 16 and Why Have We Traded Sideways Since? + +[SR-DTC-2021-003](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-91336.pdf) on MAR16: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 was effective immediately on MAR16](https://preview.redd.it/g8vmwv64q6u61.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=7feae2d390ae84a43dbe9b3a9af01ad6de03e3b5) + +The key change is that DTC Participants were required to reconcile and confirm their records of their positions with the DTC's records of their positions on a **monthly** basis prior to SR-DTC-2021-003. After SR-DTC-2021-003? The Participants have to reconcile and confirm their positions on a **daily** basis. + +So let's look at the data: + +|*Date*|*Open*|*High*|*Low*|*Close*| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|MAR15|277|283|206|220| +|MAR16|203|220|172|208| + +And we have since then largely been in that sideways zone with a few days of movement since. + +This allowed all parties to see the deck that they are working with because previously, Citadel could try to "clean things up" before the monthly reconciliation. Prior to SR-DTC-2021-003, this was to occur "*No later than the 10th business day after* ***the last Friday of the month***" (page 5). You might be thinking now "what's the last Friday of January"? + +[January 29th was the last Friday. Could the squeeze on the 28th been a result of Citadel starting to reconcile their positions with the DTC?](https://preview.redd.it/v4qq5taaq6u61.png?width=302&format=png&auto=webp&s=b85418a5fd90612ae4801a8665af9eb50255ec08) + +So the JAN28 event may have been caused by Citadel starting the process of reconciling their positions to submit and confirm with the DTC. **After JAN28, all parties had a sense of the magnitude of this event but probably could not get enough transparency to make the right decisions**. + +Why wouldn't Citadel just continue to "fudge" their books? There's something interesting on page 12 and 13 of SR-DTC-2021-003 which gets referenced again in SR-DTC-2021-004 which is filed 13 days later. Here is the text of the existing member agreement on page 12: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 page 12: the original text which gets replaced.](https://preview.redd.it/226il9qiq6u61.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9d0fd8e92d8861338401996d378f4a5b8d8e43c) + +And the text that replaces it on page 13: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 page 13: note the underlined text which was added.](https://preview.redd.it/abdhb4akq6u61.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=790adbd675869ed2f580316e307009121fa38333) + +Now let's look at a piece of text in SR-DTC-2021-004 on page 9: + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 9: notice the addition of the text \\"on the issuer's books and records\\"](https://preview.redd.it/6trdmuzqq6u61.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0420af2fad7640d602aae71f62f479b8870b0bc) + +In other words, DTC is highlighting that it will only release dividends, interest, other distributions, and *redemption* for any securities it has on record. 003 and 004 fit together to clarify that DTC will not make payments for anything that is not reconciled with their systems. + +# TL;DR. So...What Ape Do? + +Same as always: **HODL**. + +My conjecture is that **in an ideal world**, SR-OCC-2021-004 is the key piece to get into place to re-define the liquidation of failing members. But we may now be pushing up against the calendar and RC, GME, and BR may be forced to play their cards rather than wait. Or I could be wrong and everything gets blown open tomorrow. + +While I do not buy into much of the technical analysis around this stock, there is something very interesting if you look at the charts *and volume* leading into the spike at the end of February and where we are now. + +[Look at the pattern leading into the February spike and the pattern we're in right now over the past week.](https://preview.redd.it/e9xlew2ar6u61.png?width=1629&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc07760b1ece57492622e604f0c6a1b28bf2a248) + +I think we are getting really close to another big price move. It may or may not be the squeeze, but we see a repeat of almost the exact same price movement *and volume* as the last time we moved out of a stasis. + +Like a black hole, we cannot actually see it because even light does not escape, but we can observe how the mass bodies around it interact and how it distorts the space that it occupies. The squeeze is there. The best that we can do is to observe how the major players are positioning and preparing. +the way we invest and mutual fund invest is similar. Mutual fund hardly make 2-3 times their capital during their life span. + + +if i get 100k, will i be millionaire with same approach? + + +DUMb question I know. +Michael Bury identified the problems with the mortgage bonds in 2005. He knew at that time they would start to fail in 2007. He bet hundreds of millions of dollars on it, knowing he would have to wait at least 1.5 to 2 years to see any return. + +Then, in the spring of 2007, when the bonds should've started failing, but the banks were doing some kind of fuckery to keep it from happening, his boss was demanding that he get out of the positions. His clients were threatening to sue. But he still held. Through everything. + +And it paid off. 2 years and an unbelievable amount of pressure. We've got it so easy compared to that. +Context: + +* Introduction ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pyqf2a/confessions\_of\_a\_hectomillionaire\_part\_1/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pyqf2a/confessions_of_a_hectomillionaire_part_1/)) +* Investments and Portfolio Management ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/q2p32j/confessions\_of\_a\_hectomillionaire\_part\_2/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/q2p32j/confessions_of_a_hectomillionaire_part_2/)) + +\-------------- + +I want to set a serious tone for this post by sharing this WSJ article: [Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh Bankrolled His Followers. In Return, They Enabled His Risky Lifestyle.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tony-hsieh-zappos-death-entourage-11616761915) This is a really sad story. I don’t know him. But if you read through the article, I believe what really happened is that his money, not his followers, enabled his risky lifestyle. Everyone around Tony Hsieh was on his payroll and whoever was trying to talk him out of his self-destructive behavior would get marginalized or fired. Intervention is kinda impossible for an addict with a lot of money if (s)he uses the money to be in control. This post focuses on expenses and lifestyle. But instead of talking primarily about how I spend my money. I want to focus on what I do to (hopefully) avoid getting into big trouble. + +First, let’s get past this “guilt” or “moral high ground” of wanting to stay frugal once you hit it big. It isn’t really about “spending money is bad and saving money is good”. It’s also not this false dichotomy of “Experiences are good. Material things are bad.” Money is a tool. With money, you have options. Some options are good, some options are bad and some options are complicated. Super rich people can live a life with no financial constraints, But there are always other life constraints or consequences to consider. It’s important to think of the consequences before throwing money at various problems. + +Let’s start with my favorite topic: watches. I like buying expensive watches. It’s an inconsequential expense. It takes very little space to store, there’s virtually no maintenance issues and it lasts forever. The catch is I don’t really wear them in public and I definitely don’t wear them in front of old friends with different life circumstances. It satisfies my vanity without inciting envy and it doesn’t involve PEOPLE. The watches are so nicely designed with amazing craftsmanship and have great resale value. I limit myself to 1-2 watches per year though because after all, I only have two wrists and I don’t want overconsumption kills my appetite for them. + +On the other hand, I don’t have a personal assistant or full-time household staff. On paper, they could make my life easier by taking mundane things off my plates like booking travel or scheduling a plumber. But I would have to trust this person enough to give him/her enough work to make this arrangement productive. In other words, it's a very consequential expense. One time an acquaintance who was a PA to a prominent venture capitalist told me that she helped the family book a private flight to Europe and the cost was more than her annual salary. She sounded a bit bitter. I was not shocked by the cost but I was wary of the relationship between her and her employer. I don’t want a PA to talk behind my back and to be judgy of my purchases. Frankly, I don’t want to get into a complicated relationship like this. But I don’t think it’s easy to make this kind of relationship entirely transactional. + +Here is another depressing story. I know a self-made super rich couple who got divorced. The guy told me they hardly have their private space and time together. Their household employees were everywhere. They did try to carve out time and space to be with each other alone but that’s extra work. In the end, they grew apart and divorced. I always wonder if they would have still been together if they led a simpler life. + +Back to the Tony Hsieh story, just think about what could happen to a good person when everyone around him is on his payroll? It’s probably fine for a short period of time. But imagine if almost everyone you interact with on a regular basis for the past 10-15 years is on your payroll, what would that do to you? People around you will tell you that your ideas are so amazing, your heart is so big, your below-average art is the best and you are such a visionary/genius. I have seen good people become out-of-touch. I imagine only when they log into reddit and post/comment on something, people might call them idiots. Or if they do venture out into the wild, they probably would realize that whoa people do their own laundry, cook their own food and stand in line for hours to get into a buffet in Vegas???!!! If they live in their bubble, keep the money flowing and don’t get toxic people into their life, they will probably be fine. But if they have other problems like addiction or a severe mental illness, they could get into big trouble down the road. + +The main point I am trying to make here is that at a certain point, it’s not about how much money you can afford to spend anymore . It’s about the consequence of life choices. Hiring household staff is an option money enables but people need to think about if they want to pay for the price beyond money. Same for owning giant mansions, having paid \*companions\*, keeping multiple residences, owning a private jet or a big boat. It requires maintenance and manpower to own these nice things. But is it really worth all the effort and does it actually bring you joy? + +Also, I have kids. I would probably spend more lavishly on travel and experiences if I didn’t have kids. But I don’t want them to become Rich Kids of Instagram so I have to cut back on my excess. They already live in a bubble of safety and comfort. What will they become if they are used to a jet set lifestyle? + +In summary, being able to do something doesn’t mean you should do it or you actually want to do it. Here is a list of question we ask ourselves every time we are considering a significant expense($5K+): + +* What are the benefits? +* What’s the initial financial cost? Does the cost justify the benefits? +* Is there an ongoing financial cost like taxes, maintenance, membership dues, etc? +* Does it require me to spend extra time and energy on it? If so, how much? +* Does it affect our existing relationships, in particular kids, family and friends? If so, how? +* Does it require me to cultivate new relationships? + +If the answers to the last 3 questions are yes and significant, I generally avoid the expense. If the expense only involves primarily the first 3 questions, it’s a trade-off analysis. I am willing to pay for conveniences and experiences. I will also pay for house improvements that we can enjoy for a long time after it’s done. I bite the bullet and pay for all the digital subscriptions so I don’t get locked out of Bloomberg or WSJ. I have a country club membership and a wework all access membership. Here is the rough breakdown of our budget (not including investments and charitable donations): + +* Day-to-Day Basics (Food/Grocery/Trinkets/Utility/Insurance/Subscriptions/Memberships): $180K +* Kids Related (Babysitter, Enrichment Classes, etc): $70K +* Travel & Luxury Purchases & Gifts: $100K +* Home Improvement: $100K +* Services (Cleaning, Gardening, Accounting, Legal, etc): $50K +* Property Taxes on Primary/Secondary Homes: $100K (covered by rents from rental properties.) + +The above is the budget. In reality, we underspent on the basics, travel and home improvement categories by at least $100K in total. So our total budget is $600K but actual spending is a bit less than $500K. We kind of just run out of things to buy since we don’t spend much on consequential stuff. The biggest unnecessary consequential expense is our second home. We use it about 30-45 days a year. It’s nice but requires all the upkeep of owning a home. If we get rid of it, we will save at least $60K a year. We are keeping it because it lets us get closer to nature. But if I were to do it again, I probably wouldn’t buy it because the upkeep takes too much of my mental space. + +Going forward, we do expect to pay parents’ long term care expenses so we might add a couple hundred thousand a year in expenses for a few years and we will be happy to cover all that. We don’t give extended families money in general. They are all doing fine financially and have good professional careers. I don’t think it’s a good idea to give them money to remind them how rich we are. We do invite the family to trips for which we cover the expenses and sometimes we get turned down due to schedule conflict or awkwardness. We don’t talk about money with friends and family. If people try to bring it up, I just don’t say anything. I don’t like to mix money and relationships. I do like to spend time together with friends and family. We can talk about anything but money. If they want any financial advice, they can check out /r/financialindependence or /r/fatfire. A lot of good advice is available there. (Note: I do talk about the struggles with friends in the same situation. But our conversations are usually not about managing money but more about “what do we do with our life?”) + +I hope this post is not too disappointing because it’s not like I am having an amazing time spending money on luxuries all day long. Money is a tool to run our life smoothly. We eat healthy food, have nice gadgets, live comfortably in nice homes in nice neighborhoods, travel well, enjoy all the conveniences money can buy (, avoid inconveniences money can cause) and most importantly, have control of how I spend my time. We can cover any expenses should there be an emergency. IMO, the Godilocks FatFire number is $20M ($10M if you live outside VHCOL areas). Beyond that, there’s really very little marginal utility unless you enjoy living like royalty with employees gossiping behind your back. + +\------- + +Next week, I am going to write the infamous piece “I am NOT a superman”. It’s a post about philanthropy and I think it’s crucial to have it out first to provide context for the work and purpose post. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Hey everyone, just a mere anon degen here. Every once in a while an investment opportunity comes up that is so exciting you can’t help but share it. So hi. Hear me out :) (not financial advice) + +PinkPanda DeFi launched just a week ago and are building a mobile app for 5x leveraged trading on BSC. That’s cool, but can they deliver? Well apparently yes! Since they’ve released the first version of their app after only a week! + +What’s more, PinkPanda has MASSIVE meme appeal. You should see the DELUGE of memes on Twitter about PinkPanda. Plus, influencers are going crazy about it. Moneytalk, FinanceBull, Stiggybuys, Natethewinner, etc. the list goes on and on. There are even rumors that a collab with Tyler Hill is already in the works. + +And then the most important reason imo. The community is absolutely nuts. These fucking pandas eat dip like they’re STARVING and have hands made of goddamn solid diamond. Constant shilling, all over the internet. Idk what’s gonna happen over the next few weeks but one thing I know is the panda community will take everything over imo tbqh. Here’s one of the popular battle cry of the panda army: “WEN BAMBOO.” When a poor telegram server hears this batty cry, they quake in fear knowing that the panda army will come to burn their women and rape their churches. + +TG:@PinkPandaDeFi + +Website: pinkpanda.finance +Some may get defensive about a question like this so I will lay the context. During the Soviet era, US heads of state determined the Soviet economic model was deeply flawed and likely to fail as both economies grew over time. + +I wonder if China is like that now. Do you economics wizards see any current or long term problems with their model? +Appreciate that this is not strictly UKpf but Tesco meal deals are a work lunch staple for many across the country and a 13.3% increase for a frequent lunch will take its toil! + +And, arguably more importantly, a big sign to come if Tesco cannot continue absorbing cost increases! +I have a corporate salary account with HDFC. I use HDFC NetBanking to transfer money and since 31st Jan was a Sunday and I had to make payments on 1st Feb I thought I would use the 'Schedule Payment' feature to send money on 1st Feb instead of 'Transfer Now' - you know just keep the books clean MoM. + +I got charged Rs 25+ remittance charges which was ~ Rs100 for 3 transactions. And they charged this 10days after the fact in the account. I would have missed it if I didn't look at the detailed statement every month. And unfortunately I did the same for March before I went through the statements. + +I have disputed this with HDFC as the line item and their customer care insists this was a 'standing instruction'. Now for any NEFT through HDFC there are 3 options - Transfer Now, Schedule Payment (1 time thing), Standing instruction (Multiple times). + + +I have a couple points of contention with this. +1. They have not mentioned this extra charge anywhere while doing the trasaction. The customer care sent a link in the far corner of HDFC website which talks about all 'fees & charges'. +2. They did not charge the amount immediately or even the day when the supposed 'Standing instruction' was executed. It took 10 more days making it seem like they weren't related incidents. + +Anyway this is a PSA to anyone who didn't know this - Everything other than 'Transfer Now' comes at a steep price every single time. + +Update: +I was charged Rs 88.50 and with complaint they reversed it and deposited Rs 75 back to my account. Not sure why the discrepancy but I am going to follow up on it further. +They sent an email stating 'We refer to your CRM dated on 6th March received at our branch for Standing Instruction charges reversal. We take this opportunity to update you on your complaint regarding SI charges got reversal' +I tried summing up the top 50 coins in 1 or 2 sentences. It is not perfect and you obviously shouldn't make any decision based on this list, but hopefully it will help newcomers find some projects they're interested in and understanding a little bit better this technology. + +If something is wrong or misleading, feel free to comment and I'll edit the post. Obviously in 2 sentences is hard to describe the whole project idea, but I tried my best. + +&#x200B; + +1. **Bitcoin (BTC):** the original. According to the creator (or creators?) Satoshi Nakamoto, it was created to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.” +2. **Ethereum (ETH):** Ethereum is the wonder child of crypto, acts as an infrastructure for most decentralized applications. Introduces smart contracts, which are like programs with specific procedures that, once deployed, no one can change. +3. **Tether (USDT):** a centralized stablecoin tied to the dollar (so Elon, please don’t try to pump it) +4. **Polkadot (DOT):** open-source protocol aimed at connecting all different blockchains and allowing them to work together, allowing transfers of any data. +5. **Cardano (ADA):** Another blockchain, trying to improve scalability, interoperability and sustainability of cryptocurrencies. Those who hold the cryptocurrency have the right to vote on any proposed changes in the software. +6. **Ripple (XRP):** centralized coin, most people don’t see a future for it after SEC went after it. +7. **Binance Coin (BNB)**: coin associated with the Binance exchange, so valuable since it is the most popular centralized exchange. +8. **Litecoin (LTC):** Bitcoin’s cousin, with faster transactions and lower fees. +9. **Chainlink (LINK):** the main idea is to LINK smart contracts with real-world data, verifying that this data is correct. +10. **Dogecoin (DOGE):** Wow, such high ranking! (Okay, now please let’s get Stellar back in the top 10). +11. **Bitcoin Cash (BCH):** fork of Bitcoin (so a copy with some differences), which tries to lower transaction fees and increase scalability but has been surpassed technology-wise by many other coins aiming to do just the same. +12. **Stellar (XLM):** talking about currencies, XLM is one of the coins aiming to do just that, with fast processing times and low fees. It has also already become a stablecoin! (I’m kidding). +13. **USD Coin (USDC):** another centralized stablecoin tied to the dollar, like USDT. +14. **Aave (AAVE):** take a bank and make it decentralized, where the liquidity comes from the users and they earn fees from borrows. This is Aave. +15. **Uniswap (UNI):** Another DeFi like Aave, but this time it’s an exchange like Binance, just decentralized. +16. **Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC):** It’s just bitcoin wrapped in ethereum to be used in DeFi applications. +17. **Bitcoin SV (BSV)\*:** Bitcoin Scam Variant +18. **EOS (EOS):** another blockchain, aimed at being highly scalable for commercial use. It aims to make it as straightforward as possible for programmers to embrace the blockchain technology. +19. **Elrond (EGLD):** Blockchain architecture focused on scalability and high throughput, achieving this by partitioning the chain state and an improved Proof of Stake mechanism +20. **TRON (TRX):** have you seen Silicon Valley, when they try to create a decentralized internet? Yeah, Tron’s founder is Richard Hendricks. It is also one of the most popular blockchain to build decentralized applications on. +21. **Cosmos (ATOM):** several independent blockchains trying to create an “internet of blockchains”. +22. **NEM (XEM):** instead of controlling just money, you can control stock ownership, contracts, medical records, and stuff like that +23. **Monero (XMR)\*:** if you need drugs +24. **THETA (THETA):** decentralized video delivery network (peer-to-peer streaming). The token performs various governance tasks within the network. +25. **Tezos (XTZ):** another blockchain for smart contracts, but more eco-friendly and overall trying to encompass different advancements introduced by different blockchains in a single protocol. +26. **Terra (LUNA):** aiming to support a global payment network, it tries to create a decentralized stablecoin with an elastic money supply, enabled by stable mining incentives. Its related stablecoin is TerraUSD +27. **Maker (MKR):** MakerDAO is the organization behind DAI, one of the most famous stablecoins. MKR is a token that allows you to receive dividends and vote in governing the system. +28. **Synthetix (SNX):** protocol on the ethereum blockchain aiming to allow trading of derivatives (shorting or going long on a certain asset). +29. **Avalanche (AVAX):** open-source platform aiming to become a global asset exchange, where anyone can launch any form of asset and control it in a decentralized way with smart contracts. It claims to be lightweight, with high throughput and scalable. +30. **VeChain (VET):** a blockchain focusing on business use-cases more than on technology, bringing this technology to the masses without them even knowing they’re using it. +31. **Compound (COMP):** It’s the Bitcoin of DeFi. It was the first-mover and without him many other projects wouldn’t be around today. +32. **IOTA (MIOTA):** open-source decentralized cryptocurrency engineered for the Internet of Things, with zero transaction fees and high scalability since it uses a blockless blockchain where users and verifiers of transactions are the same (it may sound wrong but it’s actually a genius concept, impossible to sum up in a single sentence). +33. **Neo (NEO):** Blockchain application platform and cryptocurrency for digitized identities and assets, aiming to create a smart economy. It was one of the coins that suffered most after the 2018 bull run. +34. **Solana (SOL):** another blockchain aimed at providing super-high-speed transactions. It claims to be able to process 50k transactions per second and be perfect to deploy scalable crypto applications. +35. **Dai (DAI):** the decentralized stablecoin of MakerDAO, tied to the dollar. +36. **Huobi Token (HT):** it’s the official token of Huobi (a centralized exchange), providing advantages similar to BNB (Binance’s), for example fees discounts. +37. **SushiSwap (SUSHI):** a clone of UniSwap (so a decentralized exchange), where there’s a token (SUSHI) given as an additional reward for liquidity providers and farmers. +38. **Binance USD (BUSD):** Stablecoin issued by Binance, tied to USD. +39. **FTX Token (FTT):** It’s a token related to FTX, a platform allowing you to trade leveraged tokens based on the Ethereum blockchain. The token allows for lower fees and socialized gains. +40. **Crypto.com Coin (CRO):** the token of Crypto.com public blockchain, that tries to enable transaction worldwide between people and businesses. +41. **Filecoin (FIL):** a decentralized storage system, trying to decentralize cloud storage services. +42. **UMA (UMA):** it builds open-source infrastructure in order to create synthetic tokens on the Ethereum blockchain +43. **UNUS SED LEO (LEO):** another token, this time related to the iFinex ecosystem which allows you to save money on trading fees in Bitfinex. +44. **BitTorrent (BTT):** BitTorrent is a famous peer-to-peer file sharing platform. It is trying to get more decentralized by introducing its token, which grants you some benefits such as increased download speeds. +45. **Celsius (CEL):** Celsius is one of the first banking platforms for cryptocurrency users, where you can earn interest, borrow cash and make payments/transfers. The CEL token grants you some benefits such as increased payouts. +46. **Algorand (ALGO):** Algorand is a blockchain network aiming to improve scalability and security. ALGO is the native cryptocurrency of the network, used for a borderless economy and to secure stability in the blockchain. +47. **Dash (DASH):** It is a fork of Litecoin launched in 2014, focused on improving the transaction times of the blockchain and become a cheap, decentralized payments network. +48. **Decred (DCR):** it is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency aimed at facilitating open governance and community interaction. It achieves this by avoiding monopoly over voting status in the project itself, giving to all DCR holders the same amount of decision-making power. +49. **The Graph (GRT):** Trying to become the decentralized Google, it is an indexing protocol for querying networks like Ethereum. It allows everyone to publish open APIs that applications can query to retrieve blockchain data. +50. **yearn.finance (YFI):** part of the DeFi ecosystem, it is an aggregator that tries to simplify the DeFi space for investors, automatic the process of maximizing the profits from yield farming. + +&#x200B; + +\*EDIT: + +A couple of coin descriptions were just jokes, here are the actual explanations: + +* **Bitcoin SV (BSV):** It is a fork of Bitcoin Cash (which is also a fork of Bitcoin). Once again, the reason behind this is to "stay true to Satoshi vision", trying to improve scalability and stability. +* **Monero (XMR):** Monero's goal is simple: to allow transactions to take place privately and with anonymity. Even though it’s commonly thought that BTC can conceal a person’s identity, it’s often easy to trace payments back to their original source because blockchains are transparent. On the other hand, XMR is designed to obscure senders and recipients alike through the use of advanced cryptography. Obviously this made this coin the go-to on the dark web. +The interest on a yearly treasury bond is something like 7% while the S&P500 has an average return of 10.7% over the last 30 years. Shouldn’t the federal government make use of this roughly 4% difference? + +This is probably a dumb question but I appreciate any responses! +I was reminded of the old New Yorker cartoon with the above caption over the last few days as I first read the "let's introduce ourselves" thread and then the "let's talk about how much crypto we hold in our HNW portfolios" thread (answer, apparently not much, unless you got to be HNW through crypto). What I found was that a lot of people in this forum are in their 20s and not HNW currently and a lot of people have a zealous, and perhaps almost messianic belief in the power of crypto (what one might have called "irrational exuberance" in a more cynical age). + +So what's the purpose of this semi-rant? Just to remind everyone that while the purpose of this forum is to discuss Fat Fire, there are a lot of people here who are neither FI nor RE currently, so take everything here with a grain of salt, particularly the opinions of those flogging new and exciting asset classes with exponential growth opportunities. + +Having lived through the inflation of the '70s, the crash of '87, the Internet bubble of the late '90s/early 2000s, the subprime crisis of the mid 2000s, three wars, a couple of oil booms and busts and about four stock crashes, large and small, I just have to say there are no asset classes which can resist the forces of gravity forever, there are no industries which will always be there and your best chance at financial success/FIRE is keeping up your skills, your professional networks and owning your own business/having a professional degree. And, if you're investing, you're going to learn more from r/bogleheads than you will here. + +Rant over. Now get off my lawn. +The background is that I'm a law student at a conservative, southern school in a town full of old money. McCain took the town 2-to-1. Not many liberals here, not many progressives; still good people, but for the demographic reasons listed above they look down on people on welfare and complain about the government taking their hard-earned money away. + +I'm not poor: I'm single, healthy, young, working, with no outstanding bills to pay. I am, though, broke and in student loan debt. And I figured out that over the summer I qualify, so I applied and got them. You might qualify too - it's a hassle to apply, and it should be, but this is free food we're talking about. + +And wouldn't you know it, my conservative friends are really mad at me for stealing from poor people, and consequently stealing from their own rich parents. I don't see it that way. The State looked at my assets and income and decided that I was poor enough to qualify for some help, and I took it. Does that make me a bad American? I don't think so; I think it makes my life easier, and I'm glad for the assistance. And when I graduate and am raking it in, I can't wait to pay high taxes so that other people in my position can get help too. +I first posted this in poverty finance, as I’m a long time Detroit native, and many would consider me disenfranchised. + +In 2013 my mother and I purchased a house for the family for $15,000. We had a rent-to -own agreement and paid the property off fully by 2017. We also have put about $60k over the past 8 years into the home, putting the total physical investment right around 75k. Since then, the the property’s value has increased exponentially. I know I purchased the home when the market was at a record low, and I know since the pandemic my home is most likely at peak value. + +Collectively my mother and I make slightly over 30k. I don’t live with the family, but we engage and work together daily. The fact that it’s valued at 425k makes me inclined to sell while the markets up. + +Any thoughts? This has been an extreme morale boost for the family after decades of mediocrity. If I sell the house my plan after taxes and fees is to purchase a smaller home for the family and take out 20k for survival to hold us over. though the last decade has been rough I’m very close to making 40k a year, in 7 months I will finish my current apprenticeship building irrigation systems. My field I fell into is craft/sustainable cultivation and agriculture. + +My mother tutors and cares for my siblings. + +I figure i by another house with cash, repair my credit as I assimilate into my new job, repair my credit/clear debt and then look into acquiring a rental duplex. After this, my plan is to just take it slow and try to build up my real estate portfolio. + +Then again, my ideas/calculations could be totally wrong for my situation. + +Any pointers or advice is greatly appreciated. Im young I don’t know what I’m doing, I wanna give my sisters and brothers something different. Peace and love. +Hi, + +I have a few £1000 I can afford to lose and as a data analyst I'm curious about investing. It seems that reading The Intelligent Investor and Warren Buffet & the Interpretation of Financial Statements + a demo account on a trading platform seems a good start. + +My question - when I've armed my self with enough knowledge to take the plunge, how much of time sink is it likely to be? I imagine I'd probably want to research and invest in 10 or so companies to begin with. This would definitely be a hobby for me, but I don't really want to get involved if it's likely to take up many hour of time each week. + +What's the story with those of you that are already at this stage? + +Many thanks! +I understand he’s great at math but Buffet has already said that being good at math isn’t what’s helping him understand businesses. He’s even said if you have to do a calculation down to the last decimal, the company is probably not a buy. So being good at math isn’t what makes him a genius. + +His evaluation of intangibles is top tier and probably his greatest advantage but the average person *can* (in theory) replicate it. + +Even when people try to replicate what he did, they fail. There have been several books that all say the same things about Buffet, and nobody has come close to his track record. + +Part of me feels Warren Buffet benefited more from people not understanding financials and/or not having access to company financials more than he benefited from being an “investment genius”. However, part of me doesn’t want to believe that at all. + +Thoughts ? +Hello I am 4 years old and very new to investing. Please excuse typos I’m on mobile. English is my first language so please take it easy on me. I want to start investing with my $500 bday present I got but I don’t want to do any of my own research. Can you all recommend some stonks for me? One person once told me about an EFT. Are these the most interest? Do you like a Roth? I’ve heard financial advisors only sell me annuity. Should I pay my loan. I’ve never googled anything in my life and would rather not pay a professional for advice. + +Thanks! +Six years or so ago now, I was a normal working stiff handcuffed to my job. There wasn't a lot of extra cash. Couldn't seem to really get ahead. The thought of losing my engineering job was scary as hell, and would certainly result in my demise. The idea of how to get to retirement was impossible to get my head around. Jump forward six years, and we've got thirteen rental houses. Seven of them owned outright. Profit/month sits at $5k and that's paying existing mortgages heavy. We've set up a great team to deal with anything that comes our way. We make subpar houses in decent neighborhoods great and rent at a slightly higher than market rate to only solid tenants. We take care of them, and they take care of us. My wife and I continue to work our full time jobs, but am no longer afraid. We know we'll be just fine. I never could get my mind around retirement because how much would we really need to be comfortable? $5 mil? $10 mil? $20? It was unfathomable. Now I look at everything as how many houses. Many worry about health insurance. As I told my wife, for everyone else, its a $2k a month problem. For us, it's just three houses. It's that simple. When problems come up, and they always will, I reflect on where we'd be today if we didn't start the journey six years ago and it's a no brainier to keep going. I know six years from now, and many more properties, the answer is going to be the same. If anyone has any questions I can help with, feel free to message. One of my favorite things in this business is how willing people are to help each other. +Over the summer I made a steadfast commitment to getting my 3 month emergency fund built, which is only about 15k. I'm saving $750 a month, which is exactly 15% of my family's post-tax income. In the 3 months since I made that change, I've had $1.8k in car repairs, $600 in vet bills, and $250 to cover a friend who got towed from our guest parking (our fault). Needless to say, the needle hasn't moved as I wanted it to, and I have to keep reassuring myself that, had I not made this commitment, I'd be in real trouble covering these costs. The end goal will come eventually. + +EDIT: Just to clarify - this is a two person budget! +This is my first DD post on any company, be gentle. + +Disclaimer: I am long RKT. This is not financial advice, and I am not receiving any compensation whatsoever from anyone for this post. I’m not a professional, I’m not even an amateur, this is a Wendy’s. + +**Sources used:** RKT investor relations website and company website, RKT earnings transcripts, SEC fillings, the SEC EDGAR database, sea king al pha, whalewisdom, finbox, yahoo finance, stockcharts, openinsider, Zacks, google sheets. + +&#x200B; + +**Summary** + +Rocket Companies (RKT) is a fintech company that operates several brands including the flagship Rocket Mortgage. I think RKT presents an opportunity to buy serious value at a cheap price, because the market has not priced in the underlying fact that RKT is a tech company akin to Square, Paypal, etc. + +* RKT has disrupted the lending industry and has embraced a fully digital ecosystem, which will continue to drive customer acquisition and retention in the future +* RKT spends considerable money and resources on UX/UI development, client experience, and marketing. This will also help drive their continued expansion into the lending market. +* The RKT “ecosystem” provides a “full cycle” solution for everything related to real estate transactions and insurance. They serve real estate professionals looking to generate leads, develop those leads, better serve their clients, and make every stage of real estate transactions smoother. From the client side, they similarly just make everything easier - it’s an app, it’s online, it’s doable from home and it’s not complicated. There’s an inherent advantage in what they’re doing here because closing on real estate transactions has always been something that’s complex, unpleasant, expensive, and not well understood. You need lawyers, you need agents, there’s a ton of paperwork, it sucks. RKT is changing all of that. +* RKTs balance sheet, income, and liabilities support a stock price several times higher than the current one in my opinion. +* RKT is currently stagnant in price, and the market appears to be pricing it like a traditional mortgage company, not a rapidly growing tech company (which they are). +* RKT has been around for decades (skips the startup costs that will provide barrier to entry for newer companies looking to do what they’re doing), but somehow seems to still be leading the tech charge in the industry. That’s a unique and potent combination in my opinion. +* RKT needs a catalyst to get the market to value it as a tech company instead of a lending company. Once that happens, and I expect it to sometime within the next year, RKT should approach an appropriate valuation such as 20x earnings. That’s an estimate I pulled out of nowhere, but is commensurate with the low end of P/E ratios for companies I see as similar to RKT. + +**Key Point - RKT is Priced Like a Legacy Mortgage Company** + +The average estimate for 2020 year end revenue is $15 billion, and the yearly earnings estimate average is $3.85 per share. + +This estimate gives a ttm P/E ratio of just over 5.5. The sector median is something like 8-12, which makes RKT cheaply valued relative to the earnings it produces, *even compared to the financial/mortgage sector*. What’s key here is, I don’t think that’s really an appropriate comparison. I would place them more in line with companies like Square (ttm P/E ratio of 325x lol), PayPal (ttm P/E ratio of 69x, nice), or Fiserv (ttm P/E ratio of 24x). I used Zacks for all of these P/E ratio lookups. + +Let’s assume RKT is conservatively worth 15x earnings, and that it hits the estimate of $3.85 eps. **That would put its fair value** ***right now*** **at $57.75 per share.** I think it’s worth more than that but, we all should do well to remember that it’s really only worth whatever the market will pay for it. + +**Key Point - Catalysts** + +This thing needs a catalyst. Right now I am loading up. I’m buying shares, I’m selling SHORT TERM covered calls to reduce basis on those shares, but I will be stopping the sale of those covered calls within a couple weeks most likely. The Q4 earnings announcement will be on 2/25. I am not sure that the actual earnings numbers will be enough to wake this thing up, although I expect them to be good. But if that announcement comes with discussion of their focus for 2021 and beyond, and gets the market thinking about them as a tech company first and mortgage lending company second, things will start to heat up. I don’t know when the real catalyst will hit that triggers the run-up, but I think it could start with the Q4 earnings call. I am looking at $21 as the floor for this stock, and I expect the price to double within a year. I will be acquiring OTM LEAPs, expiring next spring. + +Supporting information and background follows. + +**The Business** + +RKT is in the business of providing solutions to financial transactions, including mortgage origination and refinancing, auto lending, and more. Specific subsidiaries and my simplistic view of how they interact: + +*Home Financing* + +* Rocket Mortgage - The mortgage company. This is a prominent “public facing” part of the Rocket ecosystem. +* Amrock - Amrock provides title insurance, property valuations, and other solutions. I see this as “supporting infrastructure” to keep clients within the rocket ecosystem where they would otherwise need to go elsewhere and is part of what makes RKT a one-stop-shop. +* Amrock Title Insurance (ATI) Company - basically does underwriting for Amrock. The “business end” in my simple understanding of the world. +* Nexsys - provides a streamlined approach to the closing process with their Clear Sign and Clear HOI technologies - taking care of closing day authentications and sharing of homeowners insurance information. +* Lendesk - Lendesk specifically provides solutions for the mortgage market in Canada +* Edison Financial - Basically the “front end” of Lendesk that Canadian clients would interact with. + +*Home Sale and Search* + +* Rocket Homes - Rocket Homes is a proprietary home search platform and real estate agent referral network. Basically this matches buyers, sellers, and agents, and is a key aspect of keeping clients completely working within RKT for all aspects of real estate buying/selling/financing. +* For Sale By Owner - A digital marketplace designed to let clients buy and sell real estate on their own. I think it’s absolutely brilliant that RKT owns this, but more on that later. + +*Auto & Personal Financing* + +* Rocket Auto - Supports rental and online car purchasing platforms. +* Rocket Loans - online personal loan solutions for clients. + +*Media* + +* Core Digital Media - a major advertiser in the mortgage, financial, insurance, and education sectors. +* Lower My Bills - this company is basically a “portal” business model that connects people with providers of various loan and insurance products. + +*Services & Technology Development* + +* Rock Connections - Basically a sales and support platform that handles appointments, prequalifications, generating leads, and data analysis among other things. +* Rock Central - I will generalize this as “business support”. HR, administration, etc. +* Rocket Innovation Studio - A tech incubator to gather and engage top talent and ideas. + +**Recent Acquisitions** + +RKT, through Lendesk, acquired Finmo back in October of 2020 ([https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce\_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce\_referrer\_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA\_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT\_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv)) Finmo is a rapidly growing Canadian digital mortgage platform and this acquisition I think was perfect - it shows RKTs dedication to embracing a fully digital experience, and making sure they’re the ones leading that charge. + +**Management** + +I do not have much to say here, aside from this. The RKT team is not the new kids on the block, they have decades of industry experience. Also, I value leaders that make people feel valued. And on that note, under CEO Jay Farner Quicken Loans has been in the top 30 of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list for 17 consecutive years. + +**Financials and Growth** + +When it comes to the numbers, RKT is killing it. I don’t want to just spout a bunch of numbers that anyone can easily go look up so here’s a couple that stood out to me from the Q3 earnings announcement and related data: + +$4.63 billion in revenue, which is 163% YoY growth. + +From that revenue, they beat EPS estimates with $1.21 for the quarter vs $1.09 expected. + +Net income was $2.4 billion which represents a YoY growth of 365%. + +Closed loan volume YoY growth was 122% to $89B. + +Net rate lock volume was $94.7 Billion (101% growth). + +RKT has brought in $13.1 billion in revenue in the first 3 quarters and seems to be on track to close out Q4 with yearly revs above $15 billion. + +That’s awesome but what I really like is that they pair this amazing growth with **$3.5B cash on hand**. That’s great because I want them to be able to scale as they grow, and make acquisitions as needed (see Finmo) to ensure they can keep that growth going without getting overextended and failing to capitalize. + +RKTs ability to recapture clients is one of the keys to their future success in my uneducated opinion. Their recapture rate is 4.6x the industry average. The Q3 earnings transcript includes a statement by the CEO on how when interest rates fall, retention rate falls, refinance activity is larger. The high recapture rate RKT has serves as a natural hedge to their retention of existing clients because their recapture is so much higher than average in the industry. + +Quick aside - RKT announced a $1 billion share buyback program. They’ll be able to repurchase shares from time to time starting Nov10 2020, ending in two years. I don’t love the idea of share buybacks because I think this can be detrimental to actual business growth for the sake of shareholder value. However, with the large cash position RKT has (and it doubled from December 2019 to September 2020) I think this is a reasonable way to deploy some of that cash for now. + +Ok so what about valuation using DCF, free cash flow analysis, something like that? Honestly I’m not convinced this is as useful as some people make it out to be. It’s nice to know what the numbers indicate, but I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about an exact price target based on anything like this. That said, you can crunch the numbers yourself or check out something like the Finbox resources: + +[https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr](https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr) + +**I don’t believe that fair value estimate for an instant**, but it's a part of the puzzle to consider. Finbox has various models you can check out, but it’s also just a nice place to view aggregate data other than directly from the SEC filings. + +**Product Channels** + +RKTs direct-to-consumer channel is their main source of revenue right now, but I think they will be successful in their efforts to grow their partner channels as well. Why do I say that? Numbers don’t lie: + +* Direct-to-consumer Q3 growth: 131% YoY ($53.5B closed loan volume) +* Partner Network growth 127% YoY ($29.6B closed volume) + * Adjusted Revenue for Partner Network is up 502% YTD vs 2019 ( see Q3 earnings transcript) + +The partner network volume is a little over half of the direct-to-consumer volume but the growth rate is just so damn juicy. That revenue growth is hellathicc. + +**Current Market and outlook** + +Right now, rates are low. The average 30-yr mortgage fixed rate is 2.92% ([https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html)) + +I cannot say how long interest rates will remain low but I believe RKT is positioned to continue to grow regardless of what rates do moving forward. They just cover so much of the space, and they do it with a focus on applied technology. + +Here’s some blatant speculation. I think as we move into 2021 and the vaccine becomes more prevalent, millennials will buy, sell, and borrow against real estate with renewed intensity. I think RKT is uniquely positioned to capture that market. + +**Positions**: RKT shares. Cost basis of $21.14. +My wife, I lover her to death, but when I talk to her about stocks, options, and investing, it's like I gave her a shot of Jack Daniels and an Ambien. It puts her right to sleep. It's like I'm speaking a foreign language. She's not a stupid person, far from it. I won't even talk to her about Theta strategies. It might put her into a coma. Do any of you have a similar experience with your spouses or significant others ? By the way, thank you to all of you people for unselfishly sharing your ideas and experiences. I have learned a lot. I appreciate it. +\[This is a follow-up to: [https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/m2vklt/our\_agentpm\_purchased\_the\_property\_i\_asked\_him/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/m2vklt/our_agentpm_purchased_the_property_i_asked_him/) \] + +So I've churned in my mind whether to write this because it's a little awkward - you'll understand why in a second - but the OP received so many comments that I feel like you deserve a follow-up. I will probably create a new account after this \[edit: because this is Reddit after all, and I prefer to stay anonymous\]. + +A few days after the original post, I had a very interesting conversation, confronting our agent/PM about that property. He started the call by saying that they saw the post on Reddit and realized it was them and immediately gave us a notice of terminating our relationship, including property management. Awkward! Didn't expect that. + +He did not directly respond to my claims but instead pushed back and said they felt like we were not "spiritually aligned" anymore - because we did not trust them and because we had tried to negotiate our PM agreement. He also said that they have other, "easier clients", who just accept their terms. I'll let everyone decide for themselves what to make of it. + +I was nonetheless wrong about the exclusivity part. I misread the contract, and the exclusivity only applied to our first deal with them. Definitely my mistake and a word of caution to anyone else reading this. + +None of this changed my feeling and unease about being screened and learning they were bidding the property only after they had purchased it. I think that was in bad form and also dishonest, and it's for the better that we part ways. They're looking for passive investors who don't ask questions, and I'm looking to actively scale a business. We've since moved forward with another agent and closed on another property, so all for the best. + +I will say that the way he ended the relationship was professional: offered a few options to end the situation like reselling the property without a commission and recommended a couple of other PM companies in town, one of which we did go with, so I did respect that. + +\[Edit: grammar\] +And ye I'm not logging in yet because I'm still ultra stressed and it turns out I got shingles so on antivirus medication and generally my life is fuk right now. + +And no this isn't a meme... + +But I had to quick log in to post this. + +I just got a phonecall from a woman who works at Autism Australia to thank me for the donation I made last week. + +She then asked "What made you decide to give to Autism Australia? What's your connection?" + +My bros.... What an awkward answer... +Anyway I told her that it's on behalf of this subreddit and you all wonderful people... with maximum brain functions + +Y'all famous now + +Also probably wrong flair but I can't find the koalatee content flair anymore. + +Love youse all + +Whale out + +🐋❤️ +Honestly, I don't really mind pumping coins, particularly joke coins like Doge. But if I see another post from someone saying "but what if Doge is the next Bitcoin" I think I'll crack! + +You can only pump a coin like Doge so far! I'm seeing people saying "what if it gets to $100 or even $1000?". Do they have any idea how many of these coins are in circulation?! + +Part of the whole joke of Doge was its rediculous supply cap and real terms inflation, with literally billions of new coins being generated annually. You can only sustain the upwards trajectory of something like that for so long... + +If you're a newbie playing with Doge, these is a huge chance your going to lose next to everything. The actual coin is designed to lose "value", the fundamental function of the coin is actively working against you! +Looks like inflation is about to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. If I can actually afford to invest anything, I'm going to be hedging against the pound. Maybe I'll start investing in wood burners as well /s. + +Full article from the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/778e65e1-6ec5-4fd7-98d5-9d701eb29567): + +UK inflation is on course to hit 18.6 per cent in January — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices, according to a new forecast from Citigroup based on the latest market prices. + +The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”. + +“We now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18 per cent in January,” said Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citi. That would be higher than the peak of inflation after the second Opec oil shock of 1979 when CPI reached 17.8 per cent, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics. + +Such a rate of inflation would squeeze household incomes hard and further push the UK economy into recession, but Nabarro said the scale of the likely inflation would push the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy further. + +UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions. + +Goldman Sachs and EY said they expected an inflation rate of at least 15 per cent around the start of next year and the Bank of England said this month that inflation would exceed 13 per cent towards the end of the year. + +The energy regulator Ofgem will on Friday announce the energy price cap for the period between October and January, which most analysts expect to rise to more than £3,500 for a household with average usage of energy — an increase of 75 per cent on current levels. + +Based on the latest wholesale costs, Citi expects a higher figure for the fourth quarter of £3,717 with forecasts for 2023 looking to be “substantially greater”. + +Nabarro said Citi’s new forecasts had taken account of a 25 per cent increase in wholesale gas prices last week and a 7 per cent rise in wholesale electricity prices. + +“Even with the economy softening, last week’s data reaffirmed the continued risk of pass through from headline inflation into wage and domestic price setting could accelerate,” he said. +We literally were just talking about how whenever we talk about point 72, steve Cohen, susquehanna, the forum gets slid, hard. Look at it today, LinkedIn posts, bs interview with Charles Paine (u/dlauer called this lady out as completely full of it), some decent DD is getting through, but still, the problem remains. LOOK MORE INTO STEVE COHEN AND COMPANY. + +Edit: I'm not saying linked in is trash, but it is social media (I'm aware of the irony), just wondering if anyone remembers "ants" or "crypto gang"? Where are they now? Not saying it's FUD, just saying be cautious, and the sheer amount is SUS. Also, I forgot to mention posts either about movie stock, or anchoring GME to movie stock. Sorry if any of you are invested but the mainstream media attention on it makes me sus. + +Edit 2: this comment from u/Jmeshareholder + +>I think griffin and point72 Cohen are publicly élit fighting each other in the open and no one is noticing +> +>I strongly believe that point72 Cohen wants to throw Kenny under since he’s the one and only face we constantly blame for our beloved stock. +> +>I suspect the elite agreed on throwing citadel and Melvin under the buss in the upcoming boner. +However, Kenny doesn’t go down without a fight. lately we’ve been seeing a lot of memes of point72 Cohen circulating around in superstonk and numerous dd trying to wake the interest of the public in point72 involvement (since they were lowkey hiding in the storm) +> +>Furthermore we notice an uptick of Twitter trending #darkpoolsabuse which is another citadel push against point72. +> +>And all of sudden we have someone talking to Charles pain the day after how (citadel is abusing the dark pool) and not getting enough fines. +> +> +>I strongly believe that HF are canabalizing against each other publicly (rich man style) at the moment +> +>There’s nothing to proof here, just a hunch but a bloody string one. We might see citadel die in the upcoming weeks and claim the squeeze is over. +> +>But it won’t be. + + +Edit 3: holy fuck I'm trying to work. Can't keep up. Keep the discussion going! Let's see some good threads. + +Edit 4: [For those of you who wanted to see Dave's point of view on the interview](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oqsgjz/i_didnt_want_to_accidentally_nuke_my_other_post/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Edit 5: thanks to those of you with counterpoints, specifically about LinkedIn. I have no problem with them specifically, all I'm saying is there was just a tonne all at once, and that makes me suspicious. If someone has time to do due diligence on the ones spreading the word (not advocating harassment or anything of the sort here) so that we know we can trust these people as well intentioned, I would love to see that. + +Trust but verify, is a mantra I personally love. + +Edit 6: scrolling through comments and found some gems, [this one](https://m.imgur.com/0gRgxD9) that talks about the bohemian club, busier than usual I see. + +Edit 7: Stratfor enterprises LLC, worth looking into. Intellipro bullshit. Came up in discussion on the jungle sub, u/DefNotAPumpkin I can't link it otherwise I would. If op gets back to me and has a post here I'll link it. + +Edit 8: George Friedman, former chairman and founder of Stratfor, is now the Founder and Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, source: u/DefNotAPumpkin , seriously check out his post, it's the only one, I can't do it justice. +Does anyone else here (who already own a house) refuse to invest in property due to the ethics of it? + +I understand that I'm in a grateful position (to already own a house) so it's pretty scathing of me to even talk about this topic, but I have always avoided further property investments (besides the one that I already own to live in) due to how outrageous real estate prices have become. I think it's deplorable that my kids and future generations will most likely never be able to afford a house on their own -- which in my opinion is contributed mainly due to property investors, amoral government policies and growing wealth inequality. + +So despite the fact that yes, I will probably make money if I invest in housing, I absolutely refuse to contribute even a tiny amount to this shitshow that is the Australian property market. Does anyone else think this or am I the crazy one for thinking this? +Don’t have many people to share this with but yea I had a little over $4200 left on the balance and I paid it all off today. It feels good not having to worry about that anymore. This was one of my major goals and I was fortunate enough to be able to get it done the first month of the year. +$SNAP has a market cap of $118b on revenues of $3.3b and negative operating income. These numbers imply some incredibly bullish factors behind snapchat, which I just don’t see. + +I’m a young person that uses snapchat a lot. Everyone my age does. There really isn’t much more usage they could squeeze out of us. Their revenue comes from ads, mostly in the spotlight and discover pages. Spotlight is basically just tiktok but worse and discover is full of clickbaitey garbage, and ads. + +From my personally experience, I don’t think they can increase ad viewership much. I’m sure they’ve got some other projects coming along but I don’t believe any of them could justify a $118b valuation. And i think its + far more likely that snapchat gradually becomes less cool and usage begins to drop off than that it increases enough to justify the valuation. + +To me this seems like a good short opportunity. Or if you’re not into bettering against stocks, a short position here could be used to hedge against a market crash, since you can expect snapchat to drop far more than most other things in your portfolio due to the speculative nature. + +Im curious to hear any bull cases you guys may have tho. +Just want to post and remind people here of the reality of negotiations going bad for you. Most posts here about starting new jobs recommend that you always negotiate your starting wage as most employers expect you to. While I would still recommend this too, I will say make sure you are negotiating from a position of strength. Luckily for me, I’m still employed with a job I like and could afford taking on the risk of losing an offer. But for people who are unemployed or underemployed, I would think twice before possibly losing a job offer. Know your worth. + +Little backstory on the job offer: + +I currently work as an Application Engineer for a company that I genuinely enjoy. My pay is fair, it’s an ESOP, I never have to work over 40 hours (usually only do 37.5) and the first $2,500 of medical expenses per year (out of $6,000 total deductible) is paid for by the company, which makes going to the doctor a lot easier knowing I won’t have a bill. We also receive bonuses based on company bookings. These bonuses give me an additional $12-14k a year. Safe to say, I know how good I have it and was not actively looking to change things up. + +A couple weeks ago, a CEO of a small company reached out to me on LinkedIn and presented an interesting opportunity. He had just purchased this small company (<5 people) in the area I was working. Basically this was a family run company and the guy he bought it from was looking to retire. He was going to stay on for additional 1-2 years to help train me be a suitable replacement for him. I liked everything about the opportunity and would have taken it if the compensation lined up. After the interview, I received an offer in my email. The base pay was about 13% higher than my current pay and this job also had bonuses, but I had no idea how easy they would be obtained compared to my current situation. He offered less PTO then I was currently receiving and I already knew I could kiss goodbye to my great work/life balance that I currently had, since he wanted to grow the company by 50% in the first year. The guy who was on the way out was already doing 60-70 hour weeks. I counter offered stating that I expected the work load to increase from my current position and that I genuinely don’t want to leave so I asked him to raise the base salary by $10k (A 15% increase from the initial offer) and that I would accept if he could meet that. + +He wrote back the following: + +“At that rate we will be pursuing a more experienced engineer with less demands at such an inexperienced level. “ + +In my mind that’s a very unprofessional response so I already know I dodged a bullet. + +But anyway just be careful when negotiating, but if you have a job that you like, play hardball all you want. + +Edit: Slight confusion for some posters in this thread. This company isn’t a start up it’s been owned by the same guy for over 30 years. He just never expanded it. New CEO just bought it a week ago since the former owner wants to retire but not leave his customers SOL. I would essentially being taking this guys place while he trains me for a year or two. + +Edit 2: /u/semisolidwhale summarizes it better than I can for anyone confused by the situation + +“ +A) if I understand correctly, legacy had nothing to do with it. The guy doing the interviewing/offer wasnt the original owner who was sunsetting out of the CEO position, it was the CEO of the company buying them out. + +B) OP states that the retiring head of the company was already putting in 60-70 hrs a week and that the goal of the new owner was to grow the business by 50% in the first year. Doubtful that the company was on a trajectory to glide into that kind of growth already. Hence OP, being new to the organization and tasked with a massive growth goal should expect to easily exceed the 60-70 he average of the previous owner and fewer PTO days. + +C) OP is currently an application engineer. This position sounds like a lot more responsibility. That can be a great opportunity in the right circumstances, but you can't pay your bills with opportunities to prove yourself and employers should compensate employees accordingly. + +D) OP states "I asked him to raise the base salary by $10k (A 15% increase from the initial offer)." This suggests the original offer was probably somewhere around 65k. Call me crazy, but asking 75k for a 60+ hour work well and being takes with leading the growth of a small company by 50% in the next year does not seem like an outlandish ask by any means. +OP had every right to expect a decent pay increase given the increased demands of the position. It seems likely the new owner has expectations that exceed their willingness to compensate accordingly. There's a reason it's called the labor market.” + +I haven’t been in touch with my parents for the past decade. I just inherited a house on the other side of the country (Columbus, Ohio), and I don’t know if I want to sell it or rent it out. For some background information, I have a degree in finance and have been interested in RE investing for a while. I think this might be a good starting point to my portfolio. I was looking on several real estate sites like Estateza and Redfin and found that the rental estimate for the property is around $1600. There is no mortgage on it and it’s paid in full. The roof was redone, and the basement has been turned into a movie theater and bar. The property is located near Ohio State University so perhaps it would be good for students? + +The property was bought in 2016 for 200k. + +Estimates for sell are at $290k (based on a realtor) + +So I ran the numbers based on the estateza estimate at $1654 and they are outputting these financials: +Cash flow: $851 +Monthly expenses: $806 +Vacancy rate: 5% +Capex: 5% +PM: 10% +Utilities: Paid by tenant +Insurance: $900 (annual) + +I have an emotional attachment to the house so I’d rather rent it out than sell it because I plan on moving back to Columbus when I get married. +35$ per melon? Absolute insanity. I live off those, its one of the few fruits I like (coz I don't drink enough water). Went to the market the other day to buy a small amount of fruit, cost me $20 for a MODEST amount (3 peaches, 2 mangoes and a 1/4 of watermelon). I expect the mangos to be pricy but not my beautiful blushing lady (watermelon). And now AI is gonna take over our jobs, literally worst month I've had +ECONOMICS 101 generally suggest nationalisation leads to inefficiency and following on from this understanding, there is often a lot of opposition to nationalising certain industries. + +How about the nationalisation of farms, manufacturing and similar industries. Have these been successfully achieved? + + +For those of you who have been following my posts, you may know i started my career in security as a homeless man. Early last year, I got myself out of homelessness. + +Shortly after the pandemic, my leaseholder went awol. Won't answer phones, text messages, emails, nothing. + +Today the property owner came, demanding his back rent. Despite explaining the situation, showing him proof, and practically begging for time, the man was adamant that we had to pay if we wanted to stay here. + +Since none of us can come up with $6000 and I'm still looking for steady work, we will all likely be kicked out. + +The other three have somewhere else to go. I don't. So for me, it's back to the shelter. + +one of my clients has a real estate attorney in my inbox giving me some useful information. Turns out, even if there wasn't a pandemic, the landlord is going to have a Hard time evicting us. + +I can't say I know the specific laws he's using, but one of the people here is a saleswoman. So she's gonna work her magic and see what can be done. + +Meanwhile, I've been binge applying to every company I can find. Flipping burgers, serving coffee, executive protection service, bag boy, p\*\*\* star, Consultant, Food distribution at a food bank, you name it. I haven't slept yet so that's a factor working on me. Let's see what happens. + +Wish me luck! Because despite the tragedy in this story, I still have a significant amount of a\*\* to kick! +I had my fair share of losing money, trading capital drawdowns, busting my own trading capital many times before finally learning from past mistakes to become a better trader. + +I don’t want to share with you something that you all heard so many times like avoid margin trading or invest in mutual funds. I believe I have some wisdom I wish I had from the beginning. + +1. Trading is just 5% theory and 95% about emotional control, risk and money management, overcoming one’s greed, having strict stoploss and targets predefined before taking a trade.  +2. Don’t follow advice from forums. Build your own map of the world. Each of us learn to trade at our own pace and don’t get discouraged if you find that after a few years, you’re still struggling to master the ‘money game’. +3. Accept losses and do not make investment decisions based on emotion Especially greed, fear, or panic. Yep, you didn’t buy Bitcoin at 3,000$ because you didn’t know back than what direction the price would take. No regrets. Keep yourself focused on here and now, move ahead +4. Know yourself. What is your current financial situation? Why you are investing? For what purpose the investment is being made? This will automatically answers questions such as how long you are investing for. The other important aspect is how much risk you would normally want to take. Keeping both in mind, assess your risk carefully. +5. Never forget that for investing, time is your best friend - and greed is your worst enemy. Patience is a requirement in stock trading. There are no short-cuts or ‘holy grail’ when it comes to stock. And you only need to have couple of strategies but those should be well tested and made perfect over the period of time. + +To me, trading is a skill that requires 3Ls - ‘Life-Long Learning”. + +Stay humble, be honest and willing to admit your mistakes in trading and don’t try to rationalise and explain mistakes away, and always remain teachable and never think you’ve ‘arrived’. +Hi. So I like to call myself a big skeptic of all things “get rich quick”. I’ve always hated MLM’s and other sorts of marketing businesses. I’ve seen many people and heard many stories of people losing thousands and I’ve always been super skeptical about them. However, my boyfriend, let’s call him Cody, has become interested in Forex. He has been a partner with Primerica for a while now but hasn’t done anything with that. He is a manager at a gym here and makes decent money from that. He was approached by a friend to start working with Forex. When I heard about this, I was shocked, just because I’ve heard horror stories about Forex. When I look up reviews online, all I see is people losing money. When I spoke to his friend to see what this is all about, all I got was attacked and hated on for being a “non-believer”. He essentially just said that people who lose money are lazy and don’t even try. I am genuinely curious in learning more and want to be more educated in this. From what I’ve read, it depends a lot on gambling and knowing a lot about the craft. Cody is convinced he will earn $40,000 (approximately) by February doing 6% everyday excluding weekends (I have no clue what that means but I know that’s what he’s doing). I want to know if and how this is actually a legit endeavor or if he’s just delusional. Please, no attacks, I want serious, informative answers. Thanks so much. + +TL;DR: my bf is starting Forex and I think it’s a scam, how legit is it? + +Edit: +I told him that if he actually does make that $40,000, I’ll apologize for my skepticism and not question this typa shit anymore. We’ll see 🤷🏼‍♀️ + +Edit: +He works all day with no break and gets home at 11-12 and gets EXHAUSTED. He goes to sleep at like 1 every night and spends that free time watching tv. Nothing wrong with that I just don’t see how he has time to do this stuff. From what I’ve gathered, this has to be done in the afternoon and takes a while. + +Update: +So I spoke to him and mentioned all the advice y’all have given me here. He said he is already doing research but he’s down to join an MLM. He says “everything is an MLM, college, businesses, everything”, which is ridiculous to me but ok. I’m scared for him but I guess there’s not much I can do. He’s writing all this advice off as idiots that had a bad experience even though most people here have said that they have had ups and downs. He also says I’m being super negative and the least bit supportive. Idk what to do😕 +Currently first year in university studying accounting and finance. And I absolutely hate it. I used to think I was too lazy to study but then I just realized this isn't what makes me happy. Additionally, I am struggling with the math side of it. + +On the other hand, I thoroughly enjoy economics. I like reading the WSJ and articles about the economy, I like talking about the markets, and I feel like I would enjoy the switch. Math is not my strong suit but I'm hoping the passion will be enough to motivate me to study and practice to improve my math skills. I understand that there is boring and exciting parts about every career; and so, I'm willing to go through the math if that means a career I will enjoy. + +Any advice is welcomed, I am so lost right now. +I understand that everyone's definition of success/financial freedom and planning are different. I understand that everyone comes from different financial background and has varying expenses across their life. I am looking to understand how much your salary was at that time you were able to take a deep breath and hear from you all. For me, I am still under the 80k mark and have a decent amount of student loan debt so I can't even understand what that number will be for my situation. +Seen a lot of hype around this company and claims about it's technology so thought I'd clear some things up. I have nothing against this company individually, but this sector is renowned for managing to hoodwink people who aren't engineers. + +**Energy from waste is not recycling**, it is at the bottom of the waste hierarchy, just above landfill. The push from gov't is towards making packaging economically viable to recycle, not making syngas from it. + +**Pyrolysis / steam cracking EfW (energy from waste) plays have been around for ages and all gone bust**. See German examples below. + +**Be highly skeptical of a company who has a new technology but doesn't tell you the process efficiency**... all I can find is references to it being super efficient. The problem with these systems is you use a huge chunk of the energy to power the reactor. What proportion ends up as H2? What is the process loss? Who will buy the syngas (is the syngas going to be burned for electricity generation? coz that ain't green and you might as well cut out the middleman and burn the waste) + +**EfW is having a bit of a rebrand** atm as it's very difficult to get planning permission for an incinerator. A new name with 'eco' jammed on the front isn't going to make green campaigners suddenly love it. + +Anyone interested should read this hilarious academic [review](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.10.038). As well as joking about all the crazy claims from pyrolysis EfW, it also gives examples of companies who tried to do this in Germany, but failed. Here is a choice quote: + +A linkage between widespread commercial failures and a lack of focus on thermodynamic fundamentals is also identified, along with an environment of indifference or ignorance towards energy balances and sustainability when these technologies are presented, assessed and financed. Though proposals to build machines which violate physical laws is not new, in a modern context this phenomenon is found to be stimulated by competitive financial rewards. The situation presents a high risk to investors and has the potential to adversely impact on societal transitions to a more sustainable future. + +Imho, turning unrecyclable plastic into new feedstock via pyrolysis has a place, but the goal of a functioning waste management system is to make that place as small as possible and focus on more thermodyamically favourable options. + +&#x200B; + +**Tldr: The technology to turn plastic into syngas has been around for a long time. This company has just put 'eco' in front of syngas.** + +Edit: [here](https://www.lowimpact.org/pyrolysis-not-solution-plastics-problem/) is a link to an article to the academic who wrote the review which uses plainer language +Last fire survey I read, seemed like most folks had a target amount of 2M, which would throw off 60-80k / yr in income. + +Most of you are making a trade off to fatFIRE later, in order to have more spending power. My question is 'what does that buy you?' + +I mean, there are the obvious things. A bigger house, a nicer car, fancier vacations, private school, etc. I wonder though, it seems very easy to wind up buying more for more's sake, and has diminishing returns on wellbeing . It also feels like at a certain level it starts to isolate you from the middle class, into more 'exclusive' circles that are frankly, less fun to be around (I'm projecting, I admit). +[analysis link here ](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2020/9/14/biden-2020-analysis) +Shouldn’t debt go up if the government spends more than it takes in? +It's tiring to read the same posts over and over again each week/day. There is several gold digger/dating related posts at top just now. It's not useful to fat fire. If someone can't figure out how to not find a gold digger, then they need self reflection. This sub has truly changed ever since more members have joined +I am doing around 30k/month in SIP but have around 2 lacs which I can invest lumpsum. I was planning to invest it in 4 parts, 50k each for next 4 months, but I'm questioning my move seeing the story of "Indian market should correct in sync of world market sometimes soon" and "its been a long time sideways, now its time to go up." + + +I know people will tell things like time in the market is better than timing the market etc etc.. But I still regret not having enough money to dump when nifty was 7k in between covid. + + +I know the pros and cons of timing the market. I know market may never come down and I might miss a bull run. I'm just asking what you guys are planning to do with your money. Waiting for any correction, or simply going with regular investment. +Let’s be real peeps, University is all about making money, for the University. It was on the news last night that a lot of kids were being offered uni spots weeks before ATAR was released. + +Personally, this is an obvious cash grab - lock them in young and they get average $30k per student who goes ti University. + +Kids, you’re 17, 18 whatever it is, coming out of high school. There is NO rush going to university. Do it if you know what you’re doing. But if you’re unsure or a non decider, don’t go signing up for $30-60k debt just because you don’t know what else to do. + +This is the beginning of your life choices as an adult. They won’t tell you. But really think if uni is the place for you. +-Via Monarch’s Hot Wallet, MTS holders can get 50% dividends that are collected from the Monarch Hot Wallet + +-The dividends can be used to buy back the MT (Monarch Utility Tokens) + +-The transaction fees from Monarch Hot Wallet will be allocated to all holders of MTS + +-Users can receive weekly dividends + +-The token can continuously be backed by physical silver assets + +-10% of the token sale will be distributed to backing the security +I currently work with taxes in the US. Was offered a position as a financial controller for a restaurant. Basically accounting/payroll/inventory but also managing deliveries and helping with catering drop offs (moving/setup/ billing clients). Although I'm confident I could learn every aspect, glass door is suggesting an accounting degree and ~ 3 years experience. + + +I think even if it was half of the job, I'd feel comfortable accepting. There is just a lot of room for error with the lack in experience. I'd be going from $14/hr to 50k and it's hard to turn down that raise when they asked me (I didn't apply). + + +Is it common to actually turn down work and be honest when underqualified? + + +Edit: Survey says I take the position and learn as I go. They wanted me for some reason so I need to trust them and myself. + + +Edit 2: Well. This felt like the biggest pep rally. This sub is wonderful. On top of employment insight, please send culinary inspiration. My latest project was a brown butter and banana ice-cream. +My 75-year-old mother-in-law has $1 million in her IRA and is quite happy with her financial advisor at LPL Financial, who has her invested in more than 30 different mutual funds and ETFs. + +I took a look at her quarterly financial statement and it literally made my eye start to twitch. + +I couldn't even put the whole thing in portfolio visualizer because you can only compare 30 funds max. + +Here is her investment "mix," each of which has like 3-4% of her total portfolio in it: + +OSCYX +USMV +VNLA +GOGIX +LSGRX +MGOIX +MEIIX +OAKIX +PEIIX +TMCPX +ACGYX +AGDYX +GHQYX +SHOYX +SBLYX +OIIEX +OISVX +OISGX +OILVX +OILGX +OIFIX +GHQYX +SBLYX +SPLV +XMLV +EEMV +EFAV +SMMU +USMV +LDCFX +LGLV +WCMGX +EPS +EZM + +For someone like me who is 100% invested in VTSAX and is an adherent of JL Collins and "The Simple path to Wealth" this portfolio screams "Dazzle them with complete bullshit!" + +Is a portfolio like this common when you sign up with a financial advisor or is this as batshit crazy as it seems to me? + +For the funds I could run through portfolio visualizer this pathetically underperformed VTSAX. Why would you pay somebody to do this with your retirement savings? +Some of you may read this and roll your eyes thinking that it’s ignorant to dismiss $1,000,000 as not a lot of money. But I say this with a forward looking perspective! + +As inflation continues eating away at the value of money every year it’s time we face the facts. A million dollars isn’t all that much money anymore! Society has put such significant value on the term “millionaire” but the reality of it is that the term is bound to lose its significance. + +The truth is that anyone in the labor force right now working towards retirement should have their sights set on reaching a million dollars invested. It’s actually turned into the bare minimum requirement if you want to retire happy. + +For those who still view $1,000,000 as unattainable for themselves, it’s time you break it down into an action plan. For example, investing $200 a month for 40 years (assuming a 10% average annual return) in a tax advantaged account like a Roth IRA will make you a millionaire. Doesn’t sound as unachievable now does it? +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +P/E of 9.34. + +Negative press today due to lower-than-expected earning, but that is largely because of Intel's investments in FABs, including one in Ohio that could be $20B: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-gives-weak-profit-forecast-211224571.html + +It's a buy for me, what do you think? + "I could end the deficit in 5 minutes," he told CNBC . "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP , all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election. +There's been a trend in recent years of a thinning employer market in low-wage sectors. Walmart being the largest employer in the US for example, and the collapse of mom and pop businesses. This has led to reduced competition from low cost labor buyers, effectively allowing a few companies to set prices. + +With recent events this has created substantial shocks in this market sector and we've seen wages becoming stickier at higher price levels. Presumably this could be because fair market forces are at play, allowing labor sellers to better consider the cost/benefit of their labor. + +To what degree do you think this is true? +I have been actively looking for a duplex for the past 6 months now and with the market being so crazy, it’s very hard to win any offers I put down. + +My plan is to buy a duplex and live in one side while rent the other out to pay for most of my mortgage. I would really like to build some equity up and hopefully own multiple units one day. To a point where I’m cash flowing. I currently still live at home at the age of 25 and have been educating myself on the whole real estate investing. But with all the tenant laws due to covid I keep asking myself if I’m better off just with a single family ? I’d like to live in this duplex for atleast 3-5 years and help leverage myself for a SFH when the time comes. But a lot of what’s on the market is going way over the asking price. Any words of advice during this crazy time with covid laws and the market extremely hot for sellers? +Does it mean even in australia our money in our bank account is worth less. So if u had 100k in your bank account now its worth 60k or does it take year or two for 40% inflation to kick in? How does it work? + + +I know am thinking little ahead of time, but people who own petrol bunks in India make a lot of money and owning a petrol bunk few decades ago wasn't as expensive as it is today, people have been owning it from generations. + +What you think about EV stations? Would it be less expensive to own it if someone enters early during this disruption? + +There are two more possibilities that I thought: + +1. Automobile companies can themselves own EV stations directly and general public won't get an opportunity. +2. Old local players with petrol bunks will simply revamp their place in such a way that they are able to cater needs of both types of the vehicles. This may create an entry barriers for new folks willing to get in. + +Again, I understand am thinking bit ahead of time and we are discussing about possibilities only. +I know this is gonna seem like a stupid question but hear me out. + +We all know that if more people are buying, then the price goes up, and if more people are selling then the price goes down. But how does this actually work? What ACTUALLY determines the market price of a stock that I see on my screen right now? + +For every person that buys a stock, someone has to sell it to them, and vice versa right? So that means that the simple action of buying a stock can't push the price higher, because behind every BUY is a SELL. + +What/who is actually changing the price of the stock in the market? + +Again sorry for the dumb question. +Throwaway account for anonymity. + +After a crazy week financially where my partner and I cleared six figures (thanks stonks), my partner's parent is now demanding that we provide them a significant amount of money. The parent raised my partner and her siblings by themselves, so definitely did not have it easy. But we are struggling with figuring out whether or not this is a good idea, mostly since the approach taken by the parent was quite poor (they were very upset that we didn't give them the cash as soon as we made it and never explicitly asked for the money). Percentage-wise, the amount would be under 10% of the after-tax gains, so in the grand scheme of things it's not that much relative to what we made. But it is still a significant amount of money and I am afraid that this will reinforce negative behavior going forward. My partner is (I'm pretty sure) leaning towards providing at least some of this money, but again I am afraid of what this entails. Additionally, I am aiming for reaching fatFIRE in the next 10-15 years and the current cash pile from this windfall will really help with that (minus charitable deductions already factored in), but big cash distributions like this would impact that timeline. Is it ever a good idea to give relatives money in this scenario? +I’ve seen confusion and concern about comments at the shareholder meeting around the Board having not made any final decisions on the stock split and that they will analyze market conditions to determine when, and if, a stock split is really in the best interest of the shareholders. + +I wanted to weigh in from my perspective as a securities lawyer who has advised public companies on communication to the public. This is not legal advice or financial advice. + +First off, if the Board had made a decision approving a stock split by way of dividend, then that requires an immediate press release. + +Secondly, based on what I’ve seen from the SEC and my own common sense, if I were advising GME, I would be very careful to run absolutely everything by the book. Anything that’s done off-side could be used against them particularly if it directly or indirectly can be seen to cause a market affecting event (MOASS). Not only that, but you can rest assured that any issues the SEC has or alleges with GameStop would be blasted across the media. + +So, at the meeting, could they have said “the Board intends to approve a stock split/stock dividend after the meeting”? + +Would that impact an investor’s decision as to whether to buy or sell shares? Given the run up when the share increase amendment and related potential stock split was announced, the answer is yes. + +So can a public company disclose material information to a portion of their shareholders in a private setting without disclosing that information to the public by way of a press release or similar public filing? No. + +So how do you deal with this then? + +You do exactly what the GC at the meeting did. + +You say that the Board will make decisions in the best interests of the shareholders (as is their duty) and confirm that the stock split has not yet been approved (which is accurate). + +It does not mean the stock split won’t be approved. It does not invalidate prior public disclosure about the board’s intent to approve the stock split after a favorable vote to increase the issuable number of shares. It does provide defensible disclosure in a private setting about a material matter. It does ensure that if the stock runs (as it has had 10% swings practically daily for the past few weeks), it won’t be as a result of an off handed comment about a stock split that is offside securities laws disclosure requirements for public companies. It does temper expectations that the stock split will be announced tomorrow (which it could be, but the Board needs to be strategic with such a big move). + +TL;DR: The response was appropriate and does not mean the Board has changed their intent around approving the stock split by way of share dividend. +Supposing that all countries agreed, and a currency rule the entire world, would this help in any way at all? Not much of an economist here, and I've only had the thought as a passing joke, but the ramifications that I cannot imagine yet all the while still find entertaining to ponder are, I feel, worth exploration. Assuming here that each country would get what they are owed according to their current economic status to the nearest accuracy possible, how different would the world economy look? +I believe getting rid of diseases would help people that were prevented from things like starting businesses etc so it may be very helpful. Do you think maybe Bill Gates has not made the right choice if he wanted to increase the happiness of mankind as much as possible? I believe he may be a utilitarian +I own a 2-unit apartment building in a city of 50,000 people. I listed a unit for rent on my local facebook housing page. In my description I said it was 'part of a 3-unit building', when I meant to type '2-unit'. + +3 days later I get a letter from the Zoning administrator with screenshots of the Facebook ad, with a full-page letter threatening me with exorbitant fines for alleged 'zoning and building inspection' crimes for having a 3 unit building. + +I went and spoke to the guy to explain my mistake. He was some 20-something hotshot who wouldn't believe my typo. He wants himself and 2 other city officials to come through my property in order to not fine me. I can't believe these fucking people have nothing better to do than cross-reference Facebook posts with assessor records all day. + +Not looking for advice, I just wanted to tell ya'll a story. Because I remember when this sub used to not be all about bubble horror. + + +Edit: Ya'll give too much advice. Why is the '2' so close to the '3' on a keyboard in the first place? +Anyone else noticing massive turnover in personnel at work recently? + +I had heard people talking about "the great resignation" and honestly didn't see it happening at the start of the year, but all of a sudden in the last few months we have had a massive wave of resignations. + +I work in an engineering company and we must have almost a quarter of our roles open at the moment, to the point where management is getting very nervous about losing key personnel and talking about hiring in contractors to tide us over. + +I figure there has been a build up of people who would have otherwise left in the last two years but have hung around to play it safe during the pandemic. + +Is this happening elsewhere or is it just my company? +There are quite a few people here who exclusively invest in very small cap companies. What was the first stock you hit big on? What attracted you to it and do you still hold it now? +Just a quick vent to people who may actually understand. + +My daughter was invited to a sleepover. She NEVER invites friends to our house. I told the other mom it was fine and she gave me the address. Its a giant house in an amazing area and backs up to a beautiful lake. My daughter told me it was the best day of her life. She mentioned the huge house, the huge lake, and their arcade room. + +I 100% know its silly to compare, but its hard living in the "poor area" knowing my kid hides how small our house is from her friends. My husband shrugged it off and doesn't seem to feel the strong emotions. He's content. I just wish we could give our kids that kind of life. + +Edit- this has already become more popular than I was expecting. I think the bit about my husband came off wrong. He is amazing. I love him dearly. I just dont want to vent to him if he doesn't feel the same way. I dont want to bring him down. Him and I are both proud of the house... it just really caught me offgaurd when my daughter explained why she doesn't invite kids over. I immediately felt like somehow I wasnt enough. I couldnt keep up with the other families. I love my house and all of our memories here. Hell, I'm happy I even have a HOUSE! I'm not unhappy here, just venting the tough feelings after an unexpected conversation with my kid. + +I love that she had such a great time. I'll gladly let her go back. I won't let her know that the comment about my house upset me. + +Edit 2- thanks for the gold!! +Genuine question, not taking sides either way. Just want to understand the rise of anti-landlord sentiment on these forums and in Australian culture in general. I'm just looking for a neutral explanation for this as I do not remember seeing this 10-15 years ago when I was younger nearly to the same degree. +The topic of passing money down to younger generations often comes up in subreddits like /r/FatFire and /r/financialindependence, and a lot of the time there is understandable concern surrounding how it should properly be done. It is HARD to give a kid or a young adult hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars without it affecting them in some way, usually not for the better. I hope to offer some perspective as someone that was the beneficiary of a trust in early adulthood. + +**Some background**: I grew up in a regular, middle class family. There was never ANY expectation that I would receive any substantial amount of money any time soon. Our gross household income throughout my childhood went from about $50k a year (when I was born) to around $130k a year towards my senior year in high school. A reasonably comfortable salary for a coastal HCOL city, but nothing luxurious. I learned that I was beneficiary of a trust set up by my grandmother in college. Before that, there was zero indication EVER that I would receive anything from anyone. I strongly believe that I would not be where I am today if I grew up knowing I had a pot of gold waiting for me in my 20s. + +For my entire life, my parents owned cars that were decades old and they still drive the same 2001 and 2009 Hondas. Luxury items and status symbols were tacky — buying good quality items and maintaining them for as long as you could was the prevailing philosophy. Fiscal restraint was a large part of my childhood, and I learned from a young age the importance of respecting the value of money. The value of hard work, living below your means, and succeeding academically/professionally was a big point of emphasis. Most of these values were taught by example and not explicitly stated. Working hard was always treated as the ultimate virtue and what we always received the most amount of praise/positive reinforcement for from our parents. + +I worked hard in high school and got accepted into a top engineering university. It was a rigorous program, and I struggled a lot. There were many weeks studying/working 12 hour days, 7 days a week. It was sophomore year of university that I was told by my parents I had been left “some money” from a deceased grandparent. It turned out that was a low seven figure amount. I think for a lot of people, this might have been the point at which they quit and switched to an easier field of study. After all — why keep suffering in engineering when you are financially set? I’d be completely lying if I said these thoughts didn’t occasionally make an appearance at 3 am while studying for a series of back-to-back engineering exams. But I always knew that I could never drop out or switch to something easier. I had made “hard working engineering student at top tier university” such an integral part of my identity and sense of worth that quitting would entail giving that up and being completely lost. It would entail feeling a sense of shame knowing that I gave up on something that my parents worked so hard for me to have. My sense of worth was largely derived from being the kind of person that worked as hard as they could for everything they had, and it gave me a lot of personal pride. Maybe this strong link between work and self worth wasn’t the most healthy life philosophy, but it prevented me (and my sister) from becoming the stereotypical trust fund kids — drifting around with no purpose, no ability to commit to anything, and no tangible accomplishments. I trudged through the rest of university, graduated, then found a pretty decent job. + +Now, I work in tech, and my sister is in a STEM PhD program at a great university. Neither of us have gone on crazy spending binges or used the money in really any capacity. The only difference it makes in my life is that the quarterly dividends I receive allow me to easily max out my tax advantaged savings accounts — something that I might have had a lot more difficulty doing without a cushion. + +It might be harder to create that connection between working hard and money if you raise your kids in a /r/FatFire way. Much of the wealth that many here have made will have come prior to kids, and many of the sacrifices will have been made before your kids have been born. SO much of my philosophy was developed by seeing my parents work, seeing the sacrifices they had to make, and having this feeling of indebtedness — knowing that they did all that they did in order to ensure my sister and I always had the resources we needed to excel. As a result, I feel a lot of responsibility to take care of the money that was given to me — I know that someone worked incredibly hard to build up that wealth. To spend it frivolously would be to discredit that work. + +I know many rich kids who were taught to “understand the value of education” without understanding the value of hard work. They ended up majoring in Art History or French Literature and now live off of their parents. I think in their case, far too much emphasis was placed on “get an education” and the value of hard work was not stressed enough. Many of them never saw it from their parents, so why should they strive for it themselves? Many of them now find themselves in a position where they are “too good” to work a lower wage job, but too unqualified to get any decently compensated job in the real world. Hence they live a lifestyle completely subsidized by their parents, and none seem particularly happy. Again, emphasis on the value and dignity of work — no matter what the nature of that work is — is very important. + +I am VERY fortunate that I had no clue I was set to receive a decent chunk of money as a young adult. If I had grown up my entire life thinking I had something waiting in store for me, I don’t think I would have developed any work ethic at all. I wouldn't have gone to a great university, I definitely wouldn’t have majored in engineering, and I wouldn’t have the level of satisfaction I have now for accomplishing everything I have. **It would have stunted my personal growth in an unimaginable way.** + +Despite all this, I still think there is tremendous value in sharing your family’s wealth with your children before you die. Preferably while they are still young enough that it makes a substantial difference. + +If I had to give some recommendations to parents of future “trust fund kids”: + +* Instill strong values, work ethic, emphasize the virtue of working hard and respecting money. SHOW them the connection between money and work, and that sometimes sacrifices have to be made. +* Keep this information from your kid until they (at least) graduate University. Never give any indication that they will be receiving any parental assistance, aside from college tuition. Preferably withhold this information until they are self sufficient adults + +*If you don’t demonstrate the proper values to kids while raising them, it doesn’t matter how many requirements, stipulations or conditions you place on the disbursement of the trust.* + +*You can draft the most sophisticated, elegant, thoughtful trust and it will still sap every last bit of motivation from your kid if they are not raised with the proper values.* You might be able to prevent them from spending it all at once, or from blowing it all on drugs, but it will never be a net positive for them unless you provide the proper parenting. + +I am still just a young adult. I can't know the full extent to which this money has affected me, or will affect me in the future. I am grateful everyday for it, but sometimes I still wonder whether I would be more motivated and ambitious if I didn’t have it. Would I have negotiated higher pay at my job? Studied harder and gotten into a FAANG company? + +I won’t pretend to know more about parenting than anyone else here. Your main takeaway after reading this should probably be something that was already obvious from the start — that a trust alone will not be enough to prevent your money from damaging your child’s ambition or stunting their personal growth. Even a masterfully crafted trust can’t replace good parenting. + +So find something that works. In the case of my family — hard work (and academic/professional success) was made a virtue and deeply connected to our own personal self worth and identity. This might not be the healthiest perspective — but it kept two young adults with access to a lot of funds grounded and relatively successful. +**~~EDIT May 12, 2021~~**~~:~~ [~~SR-OCC-2021-004 Is Scheduled to Finalize This Week~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/napco9/srocc2021004_finalizes_this_week_is_this_the/) ~~^(Also, I have been banned from Superstonk...)~~ + +**EDIT May 18, 2021**: I have been unbanned; thanks for all the folks who reached out and thanks to the mods! + +We've made it through an exciting weekend of suspense only to end up with yet another day of sideways trading. I'd like to examine why I think we have not yet launched based on the bits and pieces that we know. + +In this post, I'll be rehashing some of my earlier posts for folks who haven't read them and also examining my earlier thoughts in the context of the information we've come across over the last two weeks. + +One of my favorite topics in science is black holes. [Black holes had been theorized to exist soon after Einstein's theory of General Relativity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole#General_relativity). [Until 2019, the existence of black holes was known, but never actually seen](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/chandra/news/black-hole-image-makes-history). So how did we know where to look? Even though we can't actually see the black hole and even though it may be millions of light years away, we can observe how bodies of mass interact with it, how it affects the space around it, the energy that is dissipated from the black hole, and other signatures of its existence. + +The GME MOASS is like a black hole in more ways than one. We can only speculate on what is happening based on how the different entities in this system are interacting. Let's revisit my earlier post with some new data points. + +# Who Are the Entities Circling this Black Hole? + +On APR13, u/jamiegirl21 posted [this S-4 filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001834518/000119312521109685/d121216ds4.htm) for [a merger with Apex Clearing](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq4gfi/sec_filing_merger_with_brokarage_detailing/). + +Check out page 84: + +[\\"Apex, along with over 30 other brokerages...including...Citadel and DTCC engaged in a coordinated conspiracy...\\"](https://preview.redd.it/g3p76sl7n6u61.png?width=906&format=png&auto=webp&s=61d82b61305ceeb4bf9e4568b447c0887782e787) + +While this is *alleged* at the moment, what is clear is that some law firm(s) believes that there is a case against multiple entities -- including the DTCC -- for conspiring to shut down the JAN28 squeeze. + +Set aside the idea that Citadel or the GME shorts alone can suppress the price of GME; if that were the case, we would not have even had the JAN and FEB spikes in the first place since Citadel and the shorts alone could have stopped it. + +As I have mentioned in my previous posts, rather than thinking of the situation as "*Citadel is shorting the market*" or "*It's a battle between Short HF and Long Whales!*" to "*DTC, OCC, SEC,* ***and*** *the shorts are preparing for the squeeze*". + +Literally every major entity in global banking is entangled in this through the DTCC. Even the non-DTCC members are entangled as they use DTCC members for clearing their trades. + +* DTC: [https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/client-center/DTC/alpha.pdf) +* OCC: [https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory](https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Member-Directory) + +Just a cross section: + +|*Member*|*DTC*|*OCC*| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Apex Clearing|✔|✔| +|Barclays|✔|✔| +|Bank of America|✔|✔| +|Charles Schwab|✔|✔| +|Citadel Clearing|✔|✔| +|Citadel Securities|✔|✔| +|Credit Suisse Securities|✔|✔| +|Deutsche Bank|✔|✔| +|Goldman Sachs|✔|✔| +|Interactive Brokers|✔|✔| +|JP Morgan|✔|✔| +|Merrill Lynch|✔|✔| +|Robinhood Securities|✔|✔| +|TD Ameritrade|✔|✔| +|UBS Securities|✔|✔| +|Vanguard|✔|✔| + +# How Are They Preparing? + +The fallout from this squeeze is that there are multiple DTCC members who are going to fail and default (we'll see some possible evidence of this in a moment). When this happens, the DTCC or corresponding subsidiary (hereafter just referred to as DTCC) will step in to manage the default through Recovery and Wind Down Procedures which are documented in their member agreements. + +During the squeeze, the DTCC will intervene and provide immediate liquidity when a member defaults. In turn, DTCC will use the assets of the defaulting members as collateral for that liquidity (which itself may originate outside of DTCC). Those assets from the defaulting member will then be auctioned off to recover those loans. + +[SR-OCC-2021-004 page 4: \\"OCC is proposing...to clarify and further facilitate the process of on-boarding Clearing Members and non-Clearing Members as potential bidders in future auctions of a suspended Clearing Member's remaining portfolio\\"](https://preview.redd.it/6lr1elrbn6u61.png?width=532&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c44a3b19bee31d50d2ea5e97963da4d377f2272) + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 11: \\"...to address losses arising out of the default of a DTC Participant...\[t\]he proposed rule change would add a sentence...DTC may, in extreme circumstances, borrow net credits from Participants secured by collateral of the defaulting Participant\\"](https://preview.redd.it/jwcjavojn6u61.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e6b2d668b9106566a5442677b6d7c8338ab48dc) + +If you are interested in diving deeper into this, [check out my earlier post on the topic](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mnpzu5/srocc2021004_why_this_proposed_rule_change_is/). + +But let's talk about **why** this is interesting. + +There are generally three views on what is about to happen: + +1. The entire system and the banks are going to go belly up because of the scenario described in the [Everything Short DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) so these additional billions are to buffer them from collapse +2. The banks are reacting to increased liquidity requirements stemming from last year and the expiration of SLR +3. A few entities are probably going to collapse due to overexposed positions and other entities are moving into position to profit from that collapse + +My sense is that #1 is a bit too extreme. Having gone through 2001 and 2008, I have learned one lesson: the rich will not allow themselves and this system that props them up to fail because they are dependent on this system to support their bottom lines and lifestyles. **What alternative do they have?** The Yuan? The Euro? The GBP? The Yen? The Ruble? Crypto? What are you going to do with that Doge or Bitcoin if you can't convert it to an actual currency? How are you going to buy your lattes from Starbucks with Doge? There is no alternative. + +That said, we are at a nexus of multiple blows potentially impacting these financial institutions and GME is just one possible primer that sets off the chain reaction. + +I think it is most likely a combination of #2 and #3. What if: + +1. You are a non-defaulting member +2. And You **know** that there are going to be member defaults +3. And you **know** that that there will be an auction for their assets at a market discount + +How would **you** prepare for this? Perhaps you'd want to have cash on hand to meet liquidity requirements and emerge from any collapse flush with assets? How might you go about this? + +* [What if you're Goldman Sachs? Wouldn't it be nice to have an extra $10.6B cash on hand?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-27/goldman-sold-10-5-billion-of-stocks-in-block-trade-spree) +* [What if you're JP Morgan? How does $13B of cash sound?](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-sell-13-billion-bonds-184602000.html) +* [What if you're Bank of America? Why not add $15B to your warchest?](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/bofa-to-set-record-for-largest-bank-bond-sale-at-15-billion) +* [What if you're Morgan Stanley? How about loading up on $5B?](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html) + +Then there's [the curious case of the increased short volume of BlackRock's IXG ETF which is a basket of finance and banking stocks](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mr6pz6/world_war_whale_explanation_of_95_short_volume/). + +What is important is to understand the difference between **short interest** and **short volume**. [Squeezemetrics' white paper does a great job of explaining this](https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/download/pdf/short_is_long.pdf): + +[\\"Thus short volume is actually representative of investor buying volume\\"](https://preview.redd.it/vrpqxaonn6u61.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f573ab8d8ebf5a1aa5fb31f70ceda5f4240e769) + +The purpose of a Market Maker is to provide liquidity. Say you want to buy a bunch of IXG. Rather than waiting precisely for a seller of the same exact block size to enter a sell order that mirrors your buy order, they create the short (an "IOU") and hand you the shares and then close the IOU when they can round up the shares. + +Thus this increase in short volume indicates demand for IXG which the Market Maker is fulfilling using a short which they will balance by buying shares. + +u/choompop highlights something interesting about IXG: + +>Berkshire Hathaway, **JPMorgan Chase & Co**, **Bank of America**, AIA Group, Wells Fargo, Citigroup HSBC Holdings, Royal Bank of Canada, **Morgan Stanley**, Commonwealth Bank of America +> +>*Twist:* **The 2nd largest institutional owner of JPMorgan is Black Rock Inc. with 192 million shares. The 3rd largest institutional owner of Bank of America is Black Rock Inc. with 509 million shares.** + +You might be thinking of the DD highlighting that Warren Buffett dumped many bank stocks over the last year, but keep in mind that he also notoriously dumped airline stocks near their lows at the outset of the pandemic. + +# How Do They Know There Will Be a Default and Who Will Default? + +How can we know which of those two scenarios above is more likely? No one can say with certainty what will happen except for a few very privileged insiders. Everything I've hypothesized can get blown away tomorrow. But we can consider some of the evidence that we *can* observe and see where it leads us. + +Tucked into SR-DTC-2021-004 is an interesting bit of text on page 12: + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 12: \\"in light of observations from simulation of Participant defaults\\" and \\"multi-member closeout simulation exercise\\"](https://preview.redd.it/indix74rn6u61.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d0ed8ed4d943a3dd7d4db349d4e89221808fed4) + +They have an existing model that they can use to simulate market conditions and it is possible that they have already simulated the squeeze and the aftermath. My assumption is that they also have some idea of the probabilities of which of their member entities are going to fail, when they will fail, how they will fail, and how much liquidity they need to contain these defaults. + +This proposed change would "*shift the timing of management's review of the Corridor Indicators and related metrics from annually to biennially*". What are these Corridor Indicators? + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 12: \\"Corridor Indicators include, for example, the effectiveness and speed of DTC's efforts to liquidate Collateral securities...due to any Participant Default\\"](https://preview.redd.it/a1yz0estn6u61.png?width=753&format=png&auto=webp&s=b89ca4fe5a4dba1ae41fb57f8db5a109ea8578f1) + +The key indicator called out as an example is *how quickly DTC can liquidate a defaulting member's collateral assets.* *We* don't know who will default, but I think that DTCC members have an idea. Think about that. + +SR-DTC-2021-004 was filed on **2021MAR29** and effective immediately. **They have long been planning for the defaults that will occur as a result of the squeeze.** + +Of course, models can be wrong. I have read in Michael Lewis' *Panic* that the financial models involved in the 2008 collapse didn't account for the fact that real estate value could go down and the effect of that downturn on over-leveraged positions. + +# What Does This Have To Do With Trading Sideways? + +Two weeks ago, I posted [Why are we trading sideways? Why is the borrow rate so low? When will we moon?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mkvgew/why_are_we_trading_sideways_why_is_the_borrow/) because I was puzzled why we seemed to be stuck in a monetary [Lagrange Point](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_point) and I stated then: + +>What you can take away from this is that we will not see significant price movement up or down for the foreseeable future until OCC-004 and OCC-003 are in place; you are literally fighting against all of Wall Street, even the GME long institutions. There is literally no point buying deep OTM options until there is a whiff of OCC-004 and OCC-003 getting close to implementation. We will keep trading sideways, borrow rate will be inexplicably low, volume will be absent, etc. until DTC and OCC members are protected and they let off the brakes; Citadel and GME shorts are not and have not been in control. DTC, OCC, and all non-defaulting members have been preparing for the default of GME shorts. + +Since that time, we've had the drop to $140 and then more or less back into a stasis point. Millions in options will have expired OTM. + +I had pointed out the timing and coordination of the two prior drops and now we have a third set of data points to consider: + +1. The dip to $120 coordinated with the Q4 earnings and an almost immediate return to stasis +2. The dip to $160 coordinated with the positive Q1 preliminary results and an almost immediate return to stasis +3. And now the slow dip to $140 possibly coordinated with: 1) Melvin's Q1 results, 2) Sherman being denied his shares and being replaced, 3) the early discharge of their long term debt, and 4) DFV's options being exercised. + +Now it appears we're back to sitting in a new Lagrange Point and trading sideways again. + +[Is this a Long Whale inflicting \\"max pain\\"? Or simply multiple parties conspiring to establish \\"max stability\\"; to keep us in this Lagrange Point while waiting for all of the firewalls to be in place and positioning to profit from this event before we ignite the boosters?](https://preview.redd.it/vh5cer8dp6u61.png?width=1633&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ab005f0648da980401c786b4d9a06fecf3039d9) + +As I've stated before, I think that the variety of tools that we see at play are all part of the arsenal being deployed by multiple parties coordinating to keep this strapped down until the non-defaulting members are firewalled. The deep ITM calls, the dark pool trades, all of it is plainly visible to DTCC and the SEC yet no action is being taken. + +[DFV's tweet on APR08 is very interesting (turn on audio)](https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1380196363774918657): + +>Why is this happening to me?" +> +>"It's OK bud, it's just from the medicine, OK" +> +>"Is this going to be forever?" +> +>"No, it won't be forever" + +Are these SRs "the medicine" that we're waiting for "forever"? + +I think if we look at the actions over the last few weeks -- for example, the additional liquidity acquired in recent weeks by some of the major entities like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan -- it seems exceedingly plausible that everyone wanted time to prepare for this event, especially because of the expiration of SLR and the approaching date of the SEC memo that goes into effect on APR22 converging in one window. + +# What About the Share Recall or [INSERT CATALYST]? + +My conjecture has always been that we will be waiting for SR-OCC-2021-003 and SR-OCC-2021-004 ***as long as possible*** because these two codify key changes to the OCC member agreement to contain the fallout of the defaulting members. + +In particular, SR-OCC-2021-004 has a very curious proposed change on page 5: + +[SR-OCC-2021-004 page 5: \\"OCC proposes to eliminate the pre-qualification requirements related to non-Clearing Member's trading experience\\"](https://preview.redd.it/qm5jztiqp6u61.png?width=524&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd14cbf5b6642620e09959f55dd995c3666b4679) + +Which basically blows the auction process wide open and allows [a much broader array of bidders to the auction](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mit0eu/the_everything_shortcontinued_citadel_spacs_and/). Remember: Fidelity and BlackRock are **NOT** members of OCC but now they get a streamlined path to the auction. + +I think that in an *ideal world*, BR and Cohen want to wait until SR-OCC-2021-004 is codified to launch and in fact, perhaps thought that everything could have been finalized by now and they would be able to ignite this launch sequence. SIG threw a wrench into this by objecting to SR-OCC-2021-003, thereby pushing out its finalization which **would have been APR10** (45 calendar days from FEB24) setting us up potentially for **this week** if 004 had also been finalized but now could go out to MAY31. + +We are now running into the issue of the calendar and the shareholder meeting since some number of shares will likely have to be recalled in the next few days. + +# What Will BlackRock and GME Longs Do? + +This is where it gets interesting. + +[Here's Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock on CNBC talking about Reddit and GameStop](https://youtu.be/yEgo08b19E8?t=207): + +[\\"...reddit and gamestop and what does that mean with our clients either...\\"](https://preview.redd.it/imiyzrdvp6u61.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=e37b48653042d099e0e5d7c8cc5108b72ea3bdb1) + +BlackRock knows what's going on at the highest levels. + +I have a hunch that the [early payoff of GME's long term debt](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-voluntary-early-redemption-senior-notes-0) may not have been the initial plan because perhaps they were going to use the share recalls to trigger the squeeze. But I think that there's a chance that we may see BR and other institutional longs choose to **not** recall their shares OR wait until the last possible moment to execute the recall because it's too early to launch. + +With the delay in SR-OCC-2021-003, this may have forced them to put another tool into play: the crypto-dividend by taking a page out of the Overstock playbook. Thus they prepared this play at the cost of $216M so that they have another tool to be able to initiate the squeeze if they do not recall their shares. + +I think that GME board will delay action as long as possible because the conditions are simply not favorable at the moment. They were even less favorable in JAN, but it is possible that at that time, no one quite knew the full depth of the situation otherwise the same shenanigans going on now would have happened in JAN and FEB. Prior to JAN28, the assumption may have been that a few small HFs would fail. After JAN28, it was clear that the stakes were much, much higher and I have an idea why we've been trading sideways since MAR16. + +# What Happened on March 16 and Why Have We Traded Sideways Since? + +[SR-DTC-2021-003](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/dtc/2021/34-91336.pdf) on MAR16: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 was effective immediately on MAR16](https://preview.redd.it/g8vmwv64q6u61.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=7feae2d390ae84a43dbe9b3a9af01ad6de03e3b5) + +The key change is that DTC Participants were required to reconcile and confirm their records of their positions with the DTC's records of their positions on a **monthly** basis prior to SR-DTC-2021-003. After SR-DTC-2021-003? The Participants have to reconcile and confirm their positions on a **daily** basis. + +So let's look at the data: + +|*Date*|*Open*|*High*|*Low*|*Close*| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|MAR15|277|283|206|220| +|MAR16|203|220|172|208| + +And we have since then largely been in that sideways zone with a few days of movement since. + +This allowed all parties to see the deck that they are working with because previously, Citadel could try to "clean things up" before the monthly reconciliation. Prior to SR-DTC-2021-003, this was to occur "*No later than the 10th business day after* ***the last Friday of the month***" (page 5). You might be thinking now "what's the last Friday of January"? + +[January 29th was the last Friday. Could the squeeze on the 28th been a result of Citadel starting to reconcile their positions with the DTC?](https://preview.redd.it/v4qq5taaq6u61.png?width=302&format=png&auto=webp&s=b85418a5fd90612ae4801a8665af9eb50255ec08) + +So the JAN28 event may have been caused by Citadel starting the process of reconciling their positions to submit and confirm with the DTC. **After JAN28, all parties had a sense of the magnitude of this event but probably could not get enough transparency to make the right decisions**. + +Why wouldn't Citadel just continue to "fudge" their books? There's something interesting on page 12 and 13 of SR-DTC-2021-003 which gets referenced again in SR-DTC-2021-004 which is filed 13 days later. Here is the text of the existing member agreement on page 12: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 page 12: the original text which gets replaced.](https://preview.redd.it/226il9qiq6u61.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=f9d0fd8e92d8861338401996d378f4a5b8d8e43c) + +And the text that replaces it on page 13: + +[SR-DTC-2021-003 page 13: note the underlined text which was added.](https://preview.redd.it/abdhb4akq6u61.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=790adbd675869ed2f580316e307009121fa38333) + +Now let's look at a piece of text in SR-DTC-2021-004 on page 9: + +[SR-DTC-2021-004 page 9: notice the addition of the text \\"on the issuer's books and records\\"](https://preview.redd.it/6trdmuzqq6u61.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0420af2fad7640d602aae71f62f479b8870b0bc) + +In other words, DTC is highlighting that it will only release dividends, interest, other distributions, and *redemption* for any securities it has on record. 003 and 004 fit together to clarify that DTC will not make payments for anything that is not reconciled with their systems. + +# TL;DR. So...What Ape Do? + +Same as always: **HODL**. + +My conjecture is that **in an ideal world**, SR-OCC-2021-004 is the key piece to get into place to re-define the liquidation of failing members. But we may now be pushing up against the calendar and RC, GME, and BR may be forced to play their cards rather than wait. Or I could be wrong and everything gets blown open tomorrow. + +While I do not buy into much of the technical analysis around this stock, there is something very interesting if you look at the charts *and volume* leading into the spike at the end of February and where we are now. + +[Look at the pattern leading into the February spike and the pattern we're in right now over the past week.](https://preview.redd.it/e9xlew2ar6u61.png?width=1629&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc07760b1ece57492622e604f0c6a1b28bf2a248) + +I think we are getting really close to another big price move. It may or may not be the squeeze, but we see a repeat of almost the exact same price movement *and volume* as the last time we moved out of a stasis. + +Like a black hole, we cannot actually see it because even light does not escape, but we can observe how the mass bodies around it interact and how it distorts the space that it occupies. The squeeze is there. The best that we can do is to observe how the major players are positioning and preparing. +I read somewhere that the 40 hour work week was supposed to be for one person per household. + +I would assume that, at first, dual income households saw a big advantage over single income households (on average). But eventually dual incomes became the norm, prices rose, and then it was expected in many ways. + +Is that why Boomers are looked at as doing so well, because they hit the sweet spot where women were working and getting paid well but it wasn't yet quite so expected and necessary like today, because they hadn't been doing it for long? +I probably sound like an angry old curmudgeon here. When I "lived with my tenant" for 7 years while I was making moves to be ready to buy the second home, and fixing up the income property, and hustling by working extra hours, doing home repairs by myself, and calling in favors from friends to get projects done in an affordable way on both homes. + +But at the end of the day, it wasn't house hacking. It wasn't a life hack. It wasn't some trick. It was literally just me trying to level up my life after the great recession when financial times were hard for everybody. The "hack" to do this was to have someone to split the bills with. Mortgage, energy, water, internet, garbage, sewer, all of them. I was doing it when I was in college before I owned 2 homes, and before the great recession too, and it was just called "having roommates", I've been doing it after the great recession, and after I was able to have a second property, and it was just called "having roommates". Was I this roommates tenant? Yes, but that doesn't change the fact that we lived together as roommates do. + +We became good friends and we were both able to save money and continue the process of leveling up our lives by having an affordable couple of years. People in poor communities have been doing this for years. Dual income households have been doing this for years. Families with 2 or more earners have been doing this for years. + +We aren't hacking anything. We are making ends meet. Nobody is re-inventing the wheel by having a tenant or a roommate. When you have the luxury to make the choice to live alone, then that's a choice based on personal finances, not based on whether you're "hacking the mortgage system". It's literally just balancing your personal finances. I will continue to have roommates for now, so that I can continue to increase my savings rate and eventually buy another home. And you should too, it's a smart plan, but none of us are hacking the house, or the mortgage. We are balancing a budget. +If you are a by-the-book value investor like me, you've probably seen that you can barely count with one hand the number of stocks that meet Graham's criteria for individual/defensive investors stocks selection. To some extent, his methods are even called outdated by some individuals who overvalue growth and a less asset-heavy valuation approach, which to be fair has worked just fine in the last 20-30 years. However, BABA could be a once in a decade opportunity for many of us. + +Assuming that you are not afraid of the plethora of concerns with Chinese regulation, and that you don't allocate an unsafe percentage of your portfolio to a single stock, please find below the plain and simple analysis of BABA as Graham would recommend. + +As a refresher, this is the criteria we will be evaluating against: + +1. **Adequate Size of Enterprise** +2. **Strong Financial Condition** + 1. Current Ratio greater than 1 (Graham recommends 2 but this is for Industrials) + 2. Long Term Debt less than Working Capital +3. **Earnings Stability:** Some earnings of the common stock in each of the past 10 years. +4. **Dividend Record:** Paid dividends for 20 years or more +5. **Earnings Growth**: 7% average annual increase, or 100% growth in 10 years. Use first and last 3 years average. +6. **Moderate Price to Earnings Ratio:** P/E <15 using last 3 years average EPS +7. **Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets:** P/B ratio < 1.5 or P/E x P/B < 22.5 + +At the time of this writing, these are the relevant financials for Alibaba: + +|Stock Price|$157.96| +|:-|:-| +|**Market Value ($Bi)**|$429.36| +|**Total Assets ($Bi)**|$259.97| +|**Current Assets ($Bi)**|$98.96| +|**Total Liabilities ($Bi)**|$94.63| +|**Current Liabilities ($Bi)**|$58.04| +|**Working Capital ($Bi)**|$40.91| +|**Long Term Debt ($Bi)**|$25.21| +|**Shares Outstanding (Bi)**|2.71| +|**Avg EPS (years 10-7 using Diluted)**|0.79| +|**Avg EPS (years 1-3 using Diluted)**|7.41| +|**Book Value per Share**|$60.96| +|**P/E Ratio (3-year avg EPS)**|21.31| +|**P/B Ratio**|2.59| + +With the figures above let's go through criteria 1 through 7: + +1. **Adequate Size of Enterprise:** obviously yes with a market cap of **\~$430B** +2. **Strong Financial Condition:** Yes. Current Assets/Current Liabilities = **1.70** and Long Term Debt less than Working Capital **$25.21B < $40.91B** +3. **Earnings Stability:** Yes. Positive EPS for the last 10 years. +4. **Dividend Record:** No dividend but it's ok, the company has only been public for 10 years and has not realized full growth according to many analysts. +5. **Earnings Growth**: Yes. **836.46%.** +6. **Moderate Price to Earnings Ratio:** No .P/E of 21.31 but still very attractive. +7. **Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets:** This criteria is not met, however, BABA's P/B ratio Still much lower than industry average of 6.57 for Cyclical, 8.4 of Technology and 4.73 of S&P500. + +I'm really curious to read your opinions. Obviously there is a lot of controversy surrounding this stock with a lot of big players either entering or exiting their positions. In my view this is a no brainer for anyone who can afford to allocate 2.5%-5% of their portfolio in a single stock. + +**EDIT:** Someone realized that my EPS calculation was wrong due to CNYUSD conversion missing in some EPS figures. I updated the table to reflect that, which bumps up the P/E to around **21**. Still not bad considering the sector indexes but definitely it is not a pass for rule 6. EPS growth was also underestimated, updated to **836.46%** +No TLDR. I would like you to read this. + +I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advise. Many of you apes are saying you plan to hold for numerous reasons; some apes want to be a philanthropist, while others for their loved ones. Those reasons will help strengthen your resolve. The real resolve to become diamond hand is to use common sense. + +https://i.redd.it/9r8mosz38d171.gif + +I need every retarded ape to drill in their brain basic math. TSLA had a short of 20%, a larger float than GME, a bunch of paper hand folks who didn't even know about the SI or believe in the damn stock, and it went to 4.5k (Combine 5:1 split) a share. + +GME has a short of 140% (That's the highest number it can be reported as. It's probably 777%+), a smaller float, and diamond handed folks. So even if you're a paper hand f\*\*k, common sense dictate that you hold to at least 31.5k. That's basic math. Any number less than that, like 5k or 10k mathematically makes no sense. I did not even factor in the finra short change rule f\*\*kery, how much lower the share amount GME has, or that institutions already own the float. **That's how ridiculously generous 31.5k a share is you retarded apes.** And because many of you are retarded, no, institutions can not on a whim sell all their shares. I don't know how I can make this more clear for you retards to understand. + +And to assist with your resolve, back in late February, Finra changed how they reported short interest calculation. They no longer report short interest but short % of the float. What calculation are they using for the float? Are synthetic shares included in the float? They refused to let us know. That's how large the damn short is... + +So hopefully I established basic sense into you. When and **BY THE TIME** it gets to 31.5k, **STAYS** at an uptrend price, and 5 days **HAVE PASSED**, even the largest liquidity short hedge funds would have been margin called, and **that's when the price stop mattering**. Since at that point, the short hedge funds no longer determine when they buy and the brokerage/clearing house takes over and buys at market price. If the damn clearing house goes bankrupt, then you wait until the DTCC takes over. It may take the DTCC a month before they take over, but they'll pay up. And finally, if the DTCC goes kaput, then you wait for the FED to print our damn money. That's why the floor is 20 million. + +I need you to understand each hedge funds short position amount is different and each short hedge funds liquidity is different from one another. SHF get margin called at different price range. +Okay guys, so after quite a few years, I'm quitting trading altogether. + +Through my years, I've had some great days and some bad ones. I remember staying up nights on end looking at the price, roaring with happiness when my position went up 20% and sighing when my stop losses were hit. I've had some amazing fun and invested hours upon hours of my life into crypto. I'd earned a LOT by reselling stuff in real life and putting it into BTC in the $200-600 range. My net worth was pretty huge and I was essentially set for life. Being young, I have very little in fiat: the majority of my holdings were in BTC. + +All because of one position, I lost it all. Yes, I know it was stupid. Yes, I know you shouldn't short, especially in a bull market. Yes, I know that I should have cut my losses fast. From the first worrying -2 BTC to the slightly terrifying -20 BTC, watching my losses grow and grow. Everyone told me to close the position: but I told them, are you retarded? Do you want me to close out with a $2,000 loss when it's so clear DASH is going to crash? Do you want me to close with a $10,000 loss when this is clearly a bubble? Do you want me to close with a $50,000 loss when I can easily make $20,000 if I just wait this out? + +I was so damn certain that DASH was going to fall. And, it kept hitting new all time highs. I thought I was smarter than the market, I thought I could time the bubble: but guys, remember. *It just doesn't work.* + + +So, I've decided to stop trading 100%. It's a drug to me. (Even after being liquidated, can you believe that I converted the rest of my bank funds to Bitcoin and shorted more? I made a horrible decision in a fit of rage and I regret it so fucking much.) + +My final margin call: https://gyazo.com/8cba2eb983f4ff6733a0b8b4807f358a + +I hope that some people here will be able to learn from me and never let their losses grow to what they can't afford to lose. For years, I have been content with my life and sufficiently "well-off" in the knowledge that crypto is huge and I have enough money to live comfortably. I'm crying as I type this, because this is the worst moment of my life. So many fucking years of working, and all gone in days. I'm no longer rich, or well-off. I'm going to have to fucking bust my ass, bit by bit, to slowly recover - and I don't even know where to start. The pay I'll get when I start working ($10-20ish) seems like literally nothing compared to the thousands I lost. And if crypto really takes off, I'll always have regrets about what could have been. + +Honestly, I'm just so done with everything. My head hurts, I can't stop crying and DASH is still going up. Good bye, I hope all of you have a great day. + +Here's my BTC address, if anyone's feeling generous. +EDIT: removed + + + +To protect superstonk from becoming WSB all over again, how about we put a plan to prevent that from happening. (If that’s not already in place) + +If not now, maybe when MOASS takes off. +When in time of war the first thing you do is protect your borders + +- No new members will be able to join during MOASS +- mods cannot be replaced during MOASS +- whatever other actions to freeze the sub. + +Once we reach a new high it’ll be chaos here, just saying. + +Edit: wow I never imagined this will get so much traction, i guess I’m not the only one worried about this awesome sub. +After reading your comments, it seems that most of us agree on taking preemptive action to protect our sub integrity. IMO the attack on WSb contributed in slowing the squeeze and they can do it again, that’s their only weapon. + +Here’s some more detailed ideas we can take to clean up from shills, like many of you suggested: + +- many are saying that shills are already here, if that’s the case let’s all report them each time they post FUD so mods can block them or remove them. +- it is easier and faster to clean up shills accounts when no new ones are joining. We can either stop accepting new members or Allowing only trusted new members based on karma level, or by invite only. +- mods can take them by surprise and implement these rules now before they start an attack on the sub. If we all agree +- mods who open the gates during MOASS will be +Considered compromised and should be removed. Money can buy people, Vedgies have a lot of money to buy mods. +- of course, trusting your DD and your own judgment is key. But that’s exactly what shills are after when they attack. + +Edit 2: + +- Censorship is when you silence people who disagree with your opinion even when providing facts, that’s not what is meant here. we’re after bots, and hedge fund managers waging psychological warfare on apes, paying people to spread misinformation for their own financial gain. + +- yes Shills and sleeping cells are already in this sub, we don’t want new ones. + +- i love this sub and community so much and i hate to see it fall apart like wsb. it may need tweaking by the mods if they decided to do something concerning legality and such as some mentioned here. + + +Saturna just hit 50,000 holders in little over 10 days. New features announced. + +Saturna token has been making waves on the BSC circuit; having broken the record of most holders in 3 days at the time, it has continued to grow at an outrageous rate of 5000 new holders over the last 10 days, having just passed 50,000 holders. + +The dev team have been hard at work behind the scenes building the Saturna merch store, as well as and a brand new NFT marketplace involving an incredibly exciting $SAT eco-system, 3rd Audit, as well as even more for the future. + +If you didn’t catch it already, head over to the official Saturna Token Subreddit to check out the live discord Ask Me Anything dev team did a few days ago. It’s clear that their vision is a cut-above the overwhelming majority of all the new cash-grab projects that are appearing on the BSC daily. + +The community is amazing, the moderators are kind, helpful and willing to do anything to make this project a success. + +Check out the website for full details on milestones, join the socials and head over to Twitter to find out how to join in on the 150,000,000,000 Sat giveaway! + +Did you know that Saturna has 82 Moons? To the Moon? Nah, we’re going “To the Moons!” Saturnauts - we are well on the way to a $1 Billion Marketcap, and that’s only the beginning. + +New Moon Titan Unlocked: + +🌗 Website V2 + +🌕 Third Audit + +🌗 Additional Partners & Team members + +🌕 NFT Drop Teaser + +🌕 NFT Marketplace Teaser + +🌑 New Moon: Project "Luna" + +🌗 Meme/Art/Emoji contest + +Website -[ https://saturna.co/](https://saturna.co/) + +PancakeSwap -[ https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44) + +Telegram -[ https://t.me/saturna\_TG](https://t.me/saturna_TG) +The holy trinity for flippers and DIY weekend warriors alike. White walls, grey laminate hardwood and quartz counters. Every single flipped home and rental property looks the exact same. In 20 years kids will ask if these were government issued reno supplies. Dare to have some style! +I'm not sure if you were around a few months ago back in May when this little token known as UltraSafe blew up and made its way not just to the history books for breaking over 5 world records, but also onto billboards on NY Times Square for the month of Jun! 'Twas pretty insane. 🚀 + +This frictionless yield farming token (a fork of another very popular and successful project with the same concept) vastly improved upon the framework and security issues that plague the macro-market today. 🚧👎❌ + +By boasting an extremely quick and successful entry to market and listing on CoinGecko on its launch day, as well as and delivering on some major points that any investor with wits about them will initially look for in terms of audits (performed by 'Solidity' & crypto-renown 'Certik'), UltraSafe was a serious contender for the main stage in Crypto, though due to stablecoin market events and other real world implications this project's unlimited potential underwent suffering during the overall market's turbulent early summer. ✈️🌩 + +That said, with recent events & developments both within the project and in general sentiment of investors alike becoming seemingly bullish once more, holders of UltraSafe can now take solace in the reflections they've been earning during the dip in price it has seen. 📉📈📈 + +Reflections, you say? Yes, being a frictionless yield farming token UltraSafe takes 8% of EVERY TRANSACTION and redistributes 4% firstly to the locked liquidity pool and a further 4% to its holders proportionate to the value of which they're holding! Passive income and a growing holder count. Ultra has 41,289 holders at the time of writing this, so there's still some way to go and it is early doors for anyone bumping into this incredible project. 🙌 + +I say incredible due to the story it's provided so far, not just in the project but also in the community as it has flourished and grown since day 1. A bubbling community of humour and likeminded investors creating such a bullish and enjoyable atmosphere that everyone wants to take part. (they've even hosted meme competitions in the past!) 🥳🎉 + +What's more, they've also started to deliver upon their promises, with Staking being released today. Staking on UltraSafe is different than any other token out there as it does not have a set APY. Ultra staking rewards are directly correlated to volume of the token so the more people trading, the more people trading the more rewards. One of the devs in TG said if it was like the first week of Ultra they would've been able to offer 10 Trillion tokens for weekly staking rewards and this would've been around 1.2 million dollars at the time! Crazy stuff and since we are in NFT season again with Ultras NFT marketplace coming out next week I feel the all time high will be smashed and we will get huge staking rewards! +I won't bring up the specific details, but long story short, my parents are legitimately crazy, one of those extreme situations where everything I do must be kept secret (talking to friends, working a normal job, etc). + +Luckily in the middle of last year I got a job with my brother, he told my parents he would not pay me, then paid me in secret. Since then I have about 10k saved up, but recently they have made it very difficult to even work because I am assuming they somehow figured out I am being paid. Because of this, I will likely lose my job and my income, however, I do have experience working with people, writing resumes, doing interviews, so I don't think getting another job will be super difficult. The main issue for me is how can I get out of this house as quickly as possible? For a while I thought that maybe these things my parents do were normal, but the more I am exposed to the real world (mostly through the internet, which I had very little access to until about 2 years ago) I found out these things are in fact extreme and unusual. + +For a bit more context, I am 17, no car, no license (parents won't let me get one), no friends who would be willing to let me live with them (socializing was very hard because I was homeschooled) I have a associate's degree and as I said, 10k saved up. Whats my best course of action to get away? + +Edit: there are a lot of comments and I am sorry I can't reply to all of them, I'm using an old phone I found to make this post so I can't be seen with it, I just want to say thank you all for the advice given, I don't have any mentors so all this honestly helps. Your kindness means the world to me and I will make sure to read every comment. +Maybe I'm missing something but printing dozens of trillions USD out of thin air in order to buy junk bonds and bail out every major company that is about to fail should have some major concequences right? Like the USD devaluating or hyperinflation? + +If not, which I don't currently see(if anything the stock market is rallying), then what stops them from printing a couple trillion more to inject into healthcare, infastructure - hell might as well write a 50K USD check and mail it to everyone, I don't see why not. +The market isn't a hard science, it's equally driven by fundamentals as it is by market sentiment. If you understand that WSB is driven by an irrational cult-like echo chamber obsessed with meme stocks, what's wrong with betting against or along that by selling Theta + IV? It's obviously highly speculative and risky, but if you understand who you are betting against/with, it's not as stupid as some of you make it to be. For example, selling OTM CSP on GME/AMC knowing that there's an army of WSBs willing to die holding those stocks isn't such a dumb idea if you have the risk tolerance for it. + +I don't touch meme stocks, but my point is we are all learning and sharing. +China’s state council vows to keep the stock market stable, welcomes long-term institutional investors, will adopt policies to handle developer risks, and supports overseas share listings & good dialogue in ADRs. + +BABA up 25%, Tencent 23%, JD 34%. I had to change these numbers 2 other times because the stocks are risking so fast that within 2 minutes the stock is up an few more % points. +There are good reason for that "44 members of Congress have violated a law designed to stop insider trading and prevent conflicts-of-interest" + +>Insider and several other news organizations have this year identified 44 members of Congress who've failed to properly report their financial trades as mandated by the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act of 2012, also known as the STOCK Act. + +**The penalty was usually small — $200** is the standard amount — or waived by House or Senate ethics officials. + +This is very high contrast to those who are exposed otherwise. Just a couple of examples down below: + +CNBC: “Senior management, newsroom staff, on-air talent **and their spouses and dependents** are prohibited from owning individual stocks and bonds and have until January 2005 to liquidate their holdings. Other CNBC employees will be subject to a no-trading policy.” + +Air Traffic Controllers: Can't own stock in any airline or aerospace company. While they can no affect on any of these companies or any sort of insider knowledge - they are not allowed. + +&#x200B; + +What's your view? +The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2021 to David Card “for his empirical contributions to labour economics”, and to Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”. + +#### Nobel Prize Committee + +* [Video announcement](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRasDkXK0) +* [Summary](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/summary/) +* [Press release](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/press-release/) +* [Popular science background: Natural experiments help answer important questions](https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2021.pdf) +* [Scientific Background: Answering causal questions using observational data](https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/10/advanced-economicsciencesprize2021.pdf) + +#### Press coverage + +* [NYT: Nobel in economics goes to David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens.](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/business/nobel-economics-prize-david-card-joshua-angrist-guido-imbens.html) +* [CNN: Nobel Prize in economics awarded to David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/11/business/nobel-prize-economics-winner-2021-intl/index.html) +* [CNBC: Nobel Prize in economics awarded to David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/nobel-prize-in-economics-awarded-to-david-card-joshua-d-angrist-and-guido-w-imbens.html) + +This page will be expanded with additional news coverage and commentary as the day progresses. Please direct all Nobel discussion here. +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/fast-food-restaurants-in-america-are-losing-100percent-of-workers-every-year.html + +Not big news but with McDonald's moving towards automation does that increase revenue due to not having to pay people who take orders? + +I know there will have be money being spent on upkeep of the kiosks but it has to be much more profitable than paying workers right? + +Is McDonald's a buy? +Well, I'm an old beginner because lost a job after 17 1/2 years and made the dumbest mistake of cashing in part of my 401k. I have 130k in an IRA and am looking to try to seriously invest, as I'm 50 and scared about my future. Any suggestions would be appreciated...I wake up crying every day because I feel like my future is doomed. +After two years of lawsuits, a court finally unsealed key evidence from the FBI’s 2020 investigation of North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr for allegedly trading stocks based on nonpublic information. + +Public records at the time show that Burr abruptly liquidated more than half of his and his wife’s equity holdings in February of 2020, when most of the world had yet to focus on the looming coronavirus crisis. + +Burr was ultimately not charged with breaking any laws, but the newly released records show FBI agents believed Burr had committed insider trading and securities fraud. + +The most compelling new evidence is the flurry of calls and texts between Burr, his wife Brooke Burr, her brother Gerald Fauth and Fauth’s wife that took place on the same days that both the Fauths and the Burrs sold off hundreds of thousands of dollars of stock right before the market plunged. + +Read the full article: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/unsealed-fbi-docs-reveal-a-flurry-of-calls-amid-burrs-stock-trades.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/06/unsealed-fbi-docs-reveal-a-flurry-of-calls-amid-burrs-stock-trades.html) + +Senator Richard Burr sold 80% of his stock holdings after receiving pandemic briefings in Feb 2020, per unsealed FBI docs. Days later, the market crashed. Nancy Pelosi was also recently accused of trading on non-public info. Do you think politicians should be charged for insider trading? +She was only there for a year, she started at $2 more per hour than me. I've taken over all of her responsibilities and continue to absorb other people's responsibilities. I asked for a raise right after I got the promotion and the owner said no I'm getting paid what the prior employee was getting pAid. I know that's a lie now. I feel like I should just look for another jobs. Any input or thoughts would be appreciated. + +Edit: updating my resume, and am now on the hunt. Got my first Reddit gold for this post which takes the burn of being underpaid at least a little bit! :) +I’ve seen some investors recently asking if they should sell their investment because it’s down a couple hundred. + +All I’m asking is if the market can go lower! Picked up some O, MSFT, AAPL, and i’m just getting started 😎 + +Curious to see what other people are buying. + India’s foreign currency reserves are depleting fast. + +Looking to protect the rupee from falling sharply, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has deployed $82.8 billion (6.59 lakh crore rupees) from its forex reserves in 2022 so far. In September alone, it sold $10 billion. The central bank intervened heavily in August as well, traders said. + +India’s forex reserves stood at $550.8 billion as of Sept. 09, compared with an all-time high of $642.4 billion last year. + +[Source](https://qz.com/the-rupee-cost-india-80-billion-of-fx-reserves-in-2022-1849556567) +Etoro has been acting the c*nt for a while now. Today they introduced a mandatory stop loss on $GME shares. Meaning people's shares were lost instantly as the price went down(even with no leverage). This is outrageous as it's a manipulation of the price, they clearly don't have enough liquidity. + +Either way, this should not be allowed! This nonsense is topped by the large fees, high spreads, the high exchange rate and constant spamming. + +Use another platform for investing. +Currently have 3M€ (2.5M in an investment fund doing well {around 13-16% yoy} and 500.000€ cash). Many years ago I bought a stake in a company that is being sold and will net me an additional 7-8M€ after tax. I live a comfortable but not excessive life in Spain and my earnings more than cover my living expenses plus occasionally luxuries/hobbies. What on earth do I do with the extra? I have an initial meeting with JP Morgan private bank next week and another with Santander private bank. My fear is that this is such an unknown for me, I will make bad decisions because I don’t have enough knowledge. +Grateful for any advice. CGT is around 24-26% here. Rent and additional expenses around 150.000€ annually (earnings exceed this). I’m 45, love my job and nervous about messing this up. Very keen to donate a significant chunk either via a foundation or privately. +Any companies with some exciting and promising catalysts (e.g. promising earning reports, new tech etc.)? + +I've invested and am excited about StageZero (SZLS). They are expected to release Aristole, a product that can detect 10 or more types of cancer in Q1. +Apes, lend me your ears. + +I am **pumped** that GME took a fat dive from $268.80 down to below $235.00 as of this post. Why? Because it means we've figured out the *modus operandi* of the shorts, and HFs are fuk. + +**TL;DR** HODL, because GME is going to the moon. 🚀 + +# T+35/T+21 Cycles + +This is real, and the juiciest part of this post. As I noted in my [Cyclical Patterns in Failure-To-Deliver (FTD) and Short Interest Reporting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nezp94/cyclical_patterns_in_failuretodeliver_ftd_and/), written upon the DD of those before me, the T+35/T+21 cycles are consistent, empirical, measurable, and now, *predictable*. Read the DD of [I've estimated the current SI% based on the SI Report Cycle and Deep ITM CALL purchases.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) by [u/Criand](https://www.reddit.com/u/Criand/) for more details. + +In the chart below, we can see that each T+21 cycle (there are around five, which I've noted above the GME chart ), in every twenty-one trading sessions, GME has a regular spike. The mechanics of this are likely to be kicking-the-can-down-the-road for the FTD cycles, and even if there might be doubters about the underlying cause, you cannot doubt the observable data that this happens exactly every twenty-one days on schedule. If the sun rises every twenty-four hours, who cares if the Earth rotates around the Sun or the Sun rotates around the Earth (shout-out to Galileo Galilei who stood up to the shills of his day)—the sun still rises every twenty-four hours. + +Additionally, I am tracking possible cycles for dips in the yellow lines below the chart. Though I am not sure if there is a definite pattern yet, it is human nature (actually the nature of every system due to entropy) to do the same thing over and over on a repeating basis, such as the timing of morning/night routines of showering and brushing your teeth, aka personal hygiene. + +The one pattern I have seen is that on each Short Interest Reporting Settlement Date, marked by "SIR," GME takes a dump. *Especially* after a run such as the one this week. If the pattern as depicted by the yellow lines holds true, watch out for another dump on the first day of trading next Tuesday. + +[A cyclical pattern emerges](https://preview.redd.it/k6g14efb6w171.png?width=2433&format=png&auto=webp&s=a63cec898848e621d7b3325722b59dbe130afd24) + +# AMC Correlation + +If you were a HF that was deep in the red shorting GME, consider this strategy: + +1. Buy OTM AMC calls +2. Spend money to keep the GME price down, let AMC rocket, and let retail FOMO set in +3. Entice people to paper-hand GME, then sell those AMC calls to them +4. Buy OTM GME puts +5. Take the cash generated and drive down the GME price +6. Sell now-ITM GME puts and pay yourself back + +By doing the above, you can end up spending very little or breaking even on your capital and achieve: + +* Pushing down both the price of GME and AMC at no cost to you! +* Deflate the morale of GME apes that we missed out on AMC riches +* Deflate the morale of AMC ape-cousins that they didn't sell at the peak or bought at the top +* Give a story to Main Stream Media (MSM) to report that the MoASS is over, and that AMC is now -30%, from the peak, never mentioning the +120% from last Friday + +# AMC Price Action + +What drove the price action for AMC this week? This section is all speculative, and there are multiple possibilities, some or all or none of which may be true: + +1. There is no news, and there are no sellers, so the only driver for the price action are the shorts themselves +2. It is not even 2p EST and the volume on AMC is 522M, and the average 20-day volume is 165M. How is a 3× average volume possible on no news, and yesterday was 5×, unless institutions were involved? +3. Funds are getting margin called and need to cover or provide more cash +4. Shorts would let AMC go in order have ammo to suppress the price for GME, which is far more detrimental to the shorts +5. MSM needs a piece to talk about how much AMC came down, to "encourage" GME hodlers to paper-hand and sell, if not now, then build it into the psyche for the MoASS + +# Crypto Crash + +The market is a zero-sum game. Due to the amount of losses in crypto, to the tune billions, it is not possible that it was all retail. Institutional investors were the whales that cashed out. The money had to go somewhere. It is likely a good portion went to the manipulation of GME and AMC, as well as the possible covering of margin calls. At the very least, it is still held as cash. This is why the general market hasn't tanked, because shorts haven't had to sell any of their beloved shares in the S&P 500 to cover for GME/AMC. + +# Conclusion + +Jacked to the tits! + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +Edit: *modus operandi* not *operus modi -* thanks u/Mufragnosky +**Dearest MEDV fanatics! Couple interesting Medivolve updates for ya'll...** + +# 1. LIVE BID / ASK INFO for MEDV now available for FREE! + +That's right! You can watch MEDV bids and asks come in LIVE and for FREE online here: [https://ceo.ca/medv](https://ceo.ca/medv) (It's the graph in the left column with the horizontal red and green columns.) + +I have found it *very, very interesting* watching this over the past week or so, since it's been magically available. It's been wild to see the market manipulation on this stock play out in real time via the Live Bid / Ask graph. Would definitely recommend, especially for anyone invested in this stock. + +This feature being activated for free on [CEO.ca](https://CEO.ca) could be related to or funded by [the recent $600k Investor Awareness Marketing Campaign](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medivolve-announces-launch-investor-awareness-123000911.html) that MEDV has undertaken to improve it's share price. It certainly provides some transparency on what has been going on with this stock. + +**EDIT:** I believe the ability to see live bid / ask info is a new feature of ALL NEO listed stocks on CEO.ca. It appears that NEO possibly does not charge to access this info I guess, unlike other exchanges. + +# 2. [TWITTER DRAMA](https://twitter.com/NEO_Exchange/status/1363908789909417984?s=19): MEDV Investors confront Neo Exchange + +It was also really interesting to see a few MEDV Investors on Twitter call out NEO Exchange today over complaints of market manipulation of the MEDV stock. + +**Hot Gossip found here:** [https://twitter.com/NEO\_Exchange/status/1363908789909417984?s=19](https://twitter.com/NEO_Exchange/status/1363908789909417984?s=19) + +The NEO Exchange (which MEDV is on) brands itself as the safer, "less scammy" option for small-caps in Canada, but obviously these investors feel that NEO hasn't lived up to this self-proclaimed reputation. + +I totally understand their frustration, as this company has been very clearly held down by an investor (or investors) that seem to have a nearly unlimited supply of shares, and certainly seem to be suppressing the price of this company in recent weeks. The silver lining is that these shorters have been getting out-paced in the past week or so, with some steady upward momentum and strong support around .40 cents. + +But back to NEO. I guess my question is, does NEO really purport to somehow police the shorts? I doubt it. Seems like they are trying to do more to limit high frequency trading and preventing sketchy companies from joing the exchange in the first place (according to [this article](https://equity.guru/2021/02/19/what-is-the-neo-exchange-and-how-is-it-making-the-stock-market-less-scammy/)). Also, if it's not illegal or against their stock exchange guidelines, then this kind of action is considered legal and allowed I guess? + +\--- + +Lastly, I will just say that it has been refreshing to see MEDV hold it's own relatively well over the past week, and even today when everything was an utter blood bath. Money don't lie, and one day (in my opinion soon) the short pressure will disappear (or be thrown off), and the stock will rise into the .50 - .70 range. + +As the reality of the Q1 financials are realized (over $7 million in revenues in January alone) and through this new marketing push, I think it could go even higher. I would be happy with a dollar. But it needs to prove itself to nervous retail investors who shit their pants when it dropped to .32 a few weeks ago. + +Bottom line for me: MEDV wouldn't be spending $600k on marketing and promoting the company over the next few months if they didn't have the numbers to back it up. + +Just my opinion and of course not financial advice of any kind. + +\--- + +POSITION: 13000 @ $.40 +1) Do you think the US would be better off if half of Bill Gates' wealth had been distributed among the bottom 45 percent? + +2) Do you think Bill Gates would have been significantly less motivated and thereby contributed significantly less social value if he had earned half as much? + +3) Is it unreasonable to say that the only reason why Bill Gates made so much money is because regulators failed to intervene in Microsofts de facto monopoly? + +4) Should the state work to regulate markets better to avoid such wealth disparity? + +Any thoughts? Because I'm pro-capitalism as hell and I don't mind people making millions a year, but does anyone else feel that one individual having *that* much money seems socially counter-productive? + +**EDIT** + +*the numbers don't even matter, I would have used Carlos Slim if I wanted to make a case just using numbers, I just used a well known quote to try and get some opinions. + +And I'm not trying to make a case for confiscating assets of the super rich, I'm asking whether it would be beneficial to society if we were more active in preventing people like Bill Gates to become super rich. Ie. we would actively encourage competition and shut down monopolies so you would have a real choice between microsofts latest product and something else *and* have lower prices. + +**Edit 2** + +Fine, next time I try to make an argument I'll just use entirely arbitrary XYZ values. Apparently, all the trees were making it really hard to see the forest. +I had stock that I wanted to get rid off, and I'm making max profit by selling way above my cost basis and also keeping the entire premium from the call. +I just don't know what to do now... should I go out for celebratory drinks or take my wife out for a fancy dinner? +"Chatter on message boards is reshaping the options market and sparking wild rallies". + +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-26/reddit-s-profane-greedy-traders-are-shaking-up-the-stock-market +How to Buy GME etc [Loophole] + +Robinhood and other shitty brokerages are allowing us to buy 2, 5, or very low numbers of GME. However, they are allowing option contracts. + +Here’s a trick that ~~will work.~~ + +**Update Feb 1 [Loophole Closed](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClassActionRobinHood/comments/la6sll/rh_blocks_exercising_of_gme_call_options/?utm_source=adioking&utm_medium=your_mom&utm_name=golden_fuckboy) ** + +1) Go to next nearest option expiration (Feb 5 as of today). +2) Scroll all the way down the call list. +3) Buy GME call option with the lowest +x.xx% (0% would be no premium at mark). +4) Immediately exercise. + +I just exercised 2 contracts and now have 200 shares, blocking the shorts. You can repeat this process over and over if you are buying a lot. + +Best of luck out there! Let’s get them!!! + +P.S. ~~If you can afford 100 shares but can’t afford the risk, you can sell (heh...) some shares after you exercise and take risk off the table.~~ + +_Update:_ A screenshot has made it to me that Robinhood is blocking same day exercise so you would need to carry into the next trading day to exercise. + +_This is NOT financial advice and is for informational purposes ONLY. You can lose 100% of anything you invest._ + +EDIT: + +1) This works for pretty much any stock. + +2) There’s a catch. You need enough money (please don’t use margin) to cover 100 shares. The way exercising works is you pay for the 100 shares at the strike price. + +Example: + +- $GME is $300 +- The 2/5 $50c is $250 so it costs $25,000 +- Cost to exercise would be $50 x 100 ($5000). +- Total cost: $30,000 (same as buying 100 shares) + +After exercising you could then sell shares at open market and de-risk if you like and hold the remainder. +I’m from Australia and made a post yesterday about our journey as two physicians to FIRE and received so many nasty private messages and comments in the thread because apparently high incomes are bad? This was in an Australia based FI subreddit. I love reading people’s progress posts and thought I’d add too. I’ve since removed my post but just wondering if anyone else has experienced anything similar when disclosing a high income online? Or is it strictly an Australian phenomenon. +What are your plays for the week? What you buying and selling? What were your best plays? + +Remember this is a community to learn. + +**Downvotes are discouraged** + +**Sort by New to find the best daily play** + +Add 🚀🚀🚀 if you serious +Edit: lot of questions. On my next post I'll try update the FAQs because I'm getting the same questions all the time. I would try answer them but busy with work now. + +Yeee Haw. EGR Got me from 10 to 12 in a day. That was dumb luck but still. + +Bought 8500 shares at 0.645 and managed to sell for a sold 0.92, 42%. Bring the total to $7800. + +I'll release an update when I figure out the next buy. Buy Price will be approx 7500 and selling approx 9000. + +&#x200B; + +[Trade History](https://preview.redd.it/1cbj92ovdcg61.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=d14cd400b3bd084977ac317bdc2ecb4a24f77b51) + +FAQ: + +WTF are you doing? + +Trying to turn 1k into 1M by 40 consecutive trades by cashing out at 20% gain and reinvesting the lot. + +Why? + +Only risking 1k. + +CGT? + +Future me problem, trade 20ish me, will have to figure something out. + +Autism Levels? + +Max Power + +What if stock goes sideways, down ways, backways or rear ways? + +Sell and rebuy at next closest stage +I’m a business owner and we’re bringing in around 400k-600k profit at the moment. It’s been a crazy journey. + +However, as privileged as I am to be in this position, it has required a lot of hard work and sacrifice. I basically have no social life and work 70 hours a week. I save and invest everything I can and have no doubt I’ll have a $10m net work by the time I’m 35. + +How do you keep reminding yourself it’s worth it? + +Is there anything you actually recommend spending money on in your mid 20s to reward yourself? + +**Edit** + +Wow this got such a great response, thanks for all the positivity and great advice, couple of things to clear up + +1- I have to be vague as I am relatively well known (my personal brand) but the business is essentially an analysis firm that offers services and consulting to media companies. We currently have 2 Fortune 500 clients and many smaller businesses too. + +2 - I’m 25 and I’m happy to validate my claims with mods if they’d like, got a few accusations of lying but I have no reason to do so, happy to provide proof privately. +A gain is a gain they said - a tough pill to swallow at the moment. + +Me: Wheeling AMC since February with a $6.45 cost basis, rolling along CCs since then, adjusting strike prices up as needed and getting my premium. Sells a $16 CC about a week and a half ago. + +Also Me: If i didn't sell that recent CC I could sell my shares and pay off a student loan with what was a measly $600 trade. +If you look at the volume of options OTM on 4/16/21 you will notice that it is much higher than any other time throughout the history of the stock. + +It is my belief that DFV knows that Shitidel has no long positions in GME and only has calls/puts and shorts on GME. When your options expire OTM and you have not other positions in the stock but shorts you literally have NOTHING....... + +It makes sense as to why the shorts have been dragging it out this long. You never give up on an option until it expires. If there’s a chance there’s a chance and you still have skin in the game. But if your options expire OTM and you have no long positions in the stock (which Shitedel does NOT) you have no leg left to stand on and no more skin in the game. Nothing else you can do but cover your short positions. + +This also might be why you see Shitedel working all weekend and all hours of the night. They don’t have any skin left in the game and they don’t have any more legs to stand on. They have nothing left to fight for. + +The week of April 16, 2020 the stock was $4.85 per share and going down. Why not buy you puts then for a year (Doesn’t matter it’s going Bankrupt right) which all leads to 4/16/21. I think DFV knows this information and matched their puts with calls and being that he on the winning side of the equation he exercised his options and quadrupled down. He knows Shitedel no longer has any skin in the game and no longer has anything to fight for. The stock is not going bankrupt and they no longer have ANY positions on GME.. + +Before they lost their option positions they were able to use a technique called ARBITRAGE. Which basically means simultaneous buy and selling of stocks to take advantage of differing prices of the same asset. In a sense they could use the options they had to manipulate the price. NOW THEY DON”T HAVE THAT ABILITY AND DEEP FUCKING VALUE KNOWS IT!!!!! + +In 2017 Hedge funds started shorting Toys R Us and in 2018 of March they went bankrupt. Looks like it take about a year to win if you’re a hedge fund. + +LINKS: + +[GME PUTS OTM on 4/16/21 MASSIVE AMOUNT ](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com) + +[PRICE HISTORY OF GME FROM A YEAR AGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/) + +[ARBITRAGE AS A TACTIC TO MANIPULATE PRICE](https://thehedgefundjournal.com/the-options-landscape-for-hedge-funds/) + +[WHY HEDGIES THOUGHT BUYING PUTS AT THIS TIME A YEAR AGO WAS A GOOD BET](https://i0.wp.com/slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/origpurch.png?ssl=1) + + +TL:DR Hedge funds have been fighting because they had a leg to stand on with their PUT options. They expired OTM last Friday and now they don’t have anything left in the stock but their shorts. They cannot use Arbitrage to manipulate the price anymore because they not longer have a position in GME. DFV knows this and went stride for stride with them and is on the winning side!!! + +FEEL FREE TO POKE HOLES IN THIS BUT DAMN ITS KIND OF OBVIOUS!!! + + +EDIT 1: I don't know what the fuck is going on with all the awards. I'm just a fucking idiot who thought of this on the treadmill. I have not awarded a single award but god bless it I have't ever seen so many. + +I guess it's not bad for my first "these/DD attempt" 🤷🏻‍♂️ + +EDIT 2: I POSTED THIS COMMENT "I don't think they have enough to keep fighting. And I speculate that DFV knows that better than anyone." AND GOT THE ALL SEEING EYE AWARD WITH THE SIMPLE COMMENT "YES". +Take it for what it's worth. + +EDIT 3: I POSTED THIS COMMENT "Kind of scary how obvious it is.... LOL" I GOT THE ALL SEEING EYE AWARD WITH THE COMMENT "VERY SCARY" +I don't want to attribute everything to this but back when Warren Buffet was starting to make this mark, there was no web of instant communication and information sharing like there is today and a lot of people since then have copied the value investing model so there's way more competition and less secrets to be found. +Obviously governments get advice and produce models based on economic theory, however in some cases there seem to be substantial differences between good economic principles and govt practice. + +One glaring example is rent seeking. As far as I'm aware all credible economic theory says that rent collection based on social privilege and so on is inefficient and wasteful for the economy. It directs funds away from productive uses and discourages innovation, social mobility and so on. + +Government policies do basically nothing to reduce rent seeking however, and often act to protect it, so it seems inconsistent with economic theory. + +In general do economists feel that (western) governments act consistently with economic theory, or if economists were at the helm they would act differently? (Assuming they follow principles and do not also get distracted by self-interest, corruption and so on) +Thank you all for the enthusiastic response of my previous post. ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pxcw4z/for\_people\_with\_100m\_nw\_how\_do\_you\_manage\_your/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pxcw4z/for_people_with_100m_nw_how_do_you_manage_your/)) It was a good place to share and organize my thoughts anonymously. It is an interesting journey to grow my net worth from scratch to $100M+. But it's not all rainbows and unicorns. I have some real struggles since I had my first windfall. I am no philosopher but it's hard to live with what I have without thinking through some hard questions about life. When you have a goal to reach $10M+ NW for fatFirers, it's pretty straightforward to work hard and to save hard to reach that goal. But if you are at $30M already, what's the point of going for another 3X or for another extra zero? Most people can live a very luxurious life with $300K a year but now I can afford to spending $1M a year, should I go for it? + +&#x200B; + + I am sure this group is filled with strivers who are hardwired to achieve. But what happens afterwards? Do you still work on the same job and keep climbing the ladder? What do you really want to do with your life? Being a corporate slave is probably not the answer for most people but being completely free and independent is HARD. You have to rebuild the structure, routine, social network and the identity that was centered around the work self. Most people want to focus on something that gives them meaning, purpose and self-mastery but where can people get that after they become FI? I didn't have a place to go after FI. It's after years of struggle that I settled on investing but that was not an easy transition and still isn't. I will share some of my thoughts in the subsequent posts and I would love to hear people's thoughts on this, especially people who have the same struggles. + +The loss of status is another challenge. I thought I was not very status driven but I realize people are status driven. I don't walk around with my net worth plastered to my forehead. But once I lost that prestigious corporate title, I feel I am no longer respected. People were less interested in talking to me and old friends from the company kinda disappeared. It shouldn't have been a surprise but I thought people respect me for me. It's quite an adjustment. Being an investor certainly helps relieve that. People are pitching me to give them money so of course they are very respectful. I think I know the game a bit better now and my naivete was just laughable. + +I want to write about one post a week in the subsequent weeks to cover topics people might be interested about FatFIRE and to write down thoughts that would help me think. Here are the topics that are on the top of my mind. Feel free to suggest more topics: + +* Investment and Portfolio Management +* Expenses and Living with No Financial Constraints +* Work and Purpose +* Time and Routine +* Keeping a Low-Profile +* Relationships are Complicated +* Staying Grounded +* I am NOT a Superman. + +\---------------------------------------------- + +I wish some of you will enjoy these posts but I am really writing them for me. I am sure when I look back 10 years later on these posts, I will be embarrassed but it's good to keep the records of my current state of mind. I will have to obfuscate some details about myself to not reveal my identity because you know, I want to be candid and intellectually honest here. +Hi. Worked some months on this bot. Finally, excited as I am, I started executing the bot for some trades. + +And... + +It loses around 1 % every trade (excluding the fees) and it is supposed to execute a trade every few seconds. Who would like to invest in my algorithmic trading funds? + +In my dreams.. the bot just worked as it was supposed to. After working on it, it should be making profits from the very beginning on. I was already planning on living the financial free lifestyle at 26. Damn it! + +&#x200B; + +I am curious, how did your first bot perform? & do you have any tips/tricks? + +&#x200B; + +Edit: I use the BINANCE API for trading and the Google Colab platform is used (lol dont bash me for the latter plz) (or do so if colab is distorting my strategy qua speed) +Ralph Wanger once analogized the stock market to a man walking his dog in New York. + +The man has done the same walk for years, starting at Columbus Circle, strolling through Central Park, and ending at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. + +The dog has boundless energy and never walks in a straight line. He leaps randomly from one direction to the next, stops to smell every leaf, barks at other dogs, and jumps on you for no reason. + +At any moment, there is no predicting what the dog will do or which way he'll leap. His movements are totally unpredictable. But you know he's heading northeast at about three miles per hour, toward the museum, where he'll eventually end up - because that's where the owner is taking him. + +What is astonishing," Wanger said, "is that almost all investors, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog, and not the owner." + +As you navigate your life as an investor, pay more attention to the owner (businesses) and less to the dog (markets). +As a fairly new Economist, I’d love to see the career progression of others! I’ll start: + +2018: B.Sc. Accounting and Finance + +2018 - 2019: Audit Associate (Big4) $59,500 plus $3,000 bonus + +*cue career change because I was interested in climate change* + +2022: M.Sc. Environmental Economics + +2022 to Present: Economist (Government) $85,000 +Then they have an emergency fund with like 500k. Meanwhile I’m just barely making 30k a year🥲I’d be lucky to get a FRACTION of what some of you guys are making in a year. I’m starting to think that Reddit is just for rich people because I always feel so poor when I’m on here. +I read Up Wall On Wall Street last year and I was playing around with Python programming, so I thought, why not try to get the PEG ratio for all the companies within S&P? However, I made a few adjustments and filters along the way. + +This post will be divided into three segments: + +1. My approach to calculating the PEG ratio (hence, why I mentioned adjusted in the title) +2. The companies with a ratio below 1 (If you are only interested in that, well, you'll notice the table) +3. The distribution of the S&P500 companies based on the ratio + +&#x200B; + +1. **My approach** + +First of all, the PEG ratio (Price/Earnings ratio divided by growth) is a bit of an improved ratio compared to the traditional P/E ratio as it does take future growth into account. + +However, the P/E ratio on its own ignores a lot of information, so I made a few adjustments and will illustrate them with short examples. + +If we have two identical companies that earn $100k/year in net income, each one with a market cap of $1m, the P/E ratio is the same = 10. However, what if one of the two companies had $500k in cash in addition? Well, in a perfect market, the market price will be $500k higher. This difference in the market price, although justified by the fundamentals (the excess cash), will result in this company having a P/E of 15 and appearing more expensive compared to the one without the cash. + +So, I adjusted the market cap for the cash on the balance sheet & the debt (for the same reason) and get close to enterprise value instead of the traditional market cap. Is this perfect? Not really, but the outcome is better. + +Now, once I have the P/E ratio, the next part is looking at growth. + +When there are events with high impacts (pandemic, wars, supply chain issues), in most cases there were temporary decreases/increases in earnings (part of the P/E ratio) and temporary growth/decline ahead that is not sustainable in the long run. So, as a proxy for net earnings growth, I took the average analyst estimates that are available on Yahoo Finance, two years down the line So the EPS growth from 2023 to 2024. Is this a perfect indicator for sustainable earnings growth? Absolutely not, it's quick and dirty and that's the best I can come up with. + +In the book, Peter Lynch rightfully mentions that dividend yield should also be taken into account in addition to future sustainable growth. If a company pays out dividends, it has less cash remaining to re-invest and grow further. This should not lead to punishing the company measuring through this PEG ratio. + +So the formula that I'm using is as follows: + +***(Enterprise value / Net income from continuing operations) divided by (Forecasted EPS growth + current dividend yield)*** + +After running the script, I had the outcome for 374 companies. Not 500, as the future EPS forecast isn't available for all. There go 20% of the companies. + +Afterward, I had to filter out the companies with negative P/E ratios and negative EPS growth (for obvious reasons) and I was left with **278 companies**. + +&#x200B; + +**2. Companies with PEG ratio below 1** + +&#x200B; + +|Ticker|Name|PEG ratio| +|:-|:-|:-| +|NRG|NRG Energy Inc |0.2| +|AIZ|Assurant, Inc. |0.28| +|FOXA|Fox Corp Class A |0.36| +|TGT|Target|0.38| +|MGM|MGM Resorts|0.38| +|PVH|PVH Corp |0.39| +|LUV|Southwest Airlines|0.44| +|TER|Teradyne, Inc |0.46| +|BBWI|Bath & Body Works Inc |0.5| +|BBY|Best Buy Co Inc|0.51| +|FOX|Fox Corp Class B|0.53| +|STX|Seagate Technology Holdings PLC|0.54| +|DXC|DXC Technology Co|0.56| +|HAl|Halliburton Company|0.59| +|ATVI|Activision Blizzard, Inc|0.63| +|HPE|Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co|0.64| +|SLB|Schlumberger NV|0.64| +|RL|Ralph Lauren Corp|0.64| +|BWA|BorgWarner Inc|0.65| +|DAL|Delta Air Lines, Inc|0.68| +|GRMN|Garmin Ltd.|0.79| +|CMI|Cummins Inc.|0.84| +|MLM|Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.|0.84| +|TPR|Tapestry Inc|0.87| +|LMT|Lockheed Martin Corporation|0.88| +|DLR|Digital Realty Trust, Inc|0.88| +|AMAT|Applied Materials, Inc.|0.94| +|EQR|Equity Residential|0.94| +|HES|Hess Corp.|0.96| +|NKE|Nike Inc|0.97| +|PGR|PROG Holdings Inc|0.97| + +&#x200B; + +**3. The distribution of the S&P500 companies based on the ratio** + +The interpretation of the score is defined as follows: +If under 1 - Stock is undervalued + +If 1 - Fairly valued + +Over 1 - Overvalued + +Out of the 278 companies, the distribution is as follows: + +PEG under 1 - **31 (11.2%)** + +PEG between 1 and 1.5 - **33 (11.9%)** + +PEG between 1.5 and 2 - **43 (15.5%)** + +PEG between 2 and 3 - **69 (24.8%)** + +PEG over 3 - **102 (36.7%)** + +&#x200B; + +I thought someone mind find this interesting, so why not share it with the rest? + +I hope you enjoyed the post and feel free to critique it :) +If a bank has fucked up so bad, the free market dictates that it should go down. Then why doesn’t the government bail out the account holders rather than the incompetent banks? +Industry lifer here who has made enough to retire several times over but keeps working at a MM firm because I just love the game. I feel a duty to let you know that the current top post on this sub is full of horrible information. + +People are for some reason upvoting OP's "rebuttal" to u/spintwig, a "rebuttal" that contains absolutely zero empirical information of any sort, and zero value other than apparently being what people want to hear. + +In reality, everything you need to know about OP's actual knowledge of trading can be seen here: + +>“market makers”, is short hand for anyone making real money in finance today. Alpha would take a huge hit if your average American knew even a little more about money management. +> It is just like any field, the people making the money try to keep you out! + +If OP actually knew what a market maker was, he'd know that I want you IN! I want you to trade as much as possible! That's how I make my money! + +Entire context if you care: https://old.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/j4yswq/wheel_spy_holding/g7qikp4/ + +There was one person posting correct answers in that thread and that was /u/imnotarobotyouare, who is 100% correct that anyone who is basing current trading decisions on the cost at which the thing was acquired is falling victim to the anchoring fallacy. This is literally one of the first things we teach junior traders at our firm. It doesn't matter if your shares were acquired at $0, $10, or $1000; you make models based on marks and theos and you trade based on NOW. That's it. And yet the people saying this, the people who knew what they were talking about, were shouted down in spintwig's original thread. I get why the experienced people don't stick around this sub and nearly all the active accounts have less than a year of experience trading. + +OK back into the shadows for a bit until something else comes along to really offend me. On behalf of my desk, keep trading! +Everything feels like good news for ETH these days, with incredible stories about development milestones being hit and network effect growing, but the price action doesn't feel like such a good news story. I think some of us have been in this place before. There is a lot about this that reminds me about the perma-300 period. Good news and more good news, but the price just stayed the same. And now, the repeated rejection at ~700 to ~800 now, with range-bound price action that feels, sort of...yes, *manipulated*. But I'm not one to cry about such things. + +Just remember a year from now that you had more time to accumulate now. I also bought the hell out of that dip 5 month long dip in the 300s. And guess what? Now we're 5 months from when we first hit 700, and we saw much higher than that for a bit. That's a short time in normal financial markets, but an eternity in crypto. As for me, I'll keep reflexively buying anything under 1500, even though I probably don't need anymore. There is just too much potential for this technology, and I try to be a patient and forward-thinking man man. + +**Plasma Cash, Plasma, State Channels, Proof of Stake, Sharding, dapps hitting main net, increased adoption, institutional interest. We have barely scratched the surface of what Ethereum will be in the future.** + +And take a good look at that multi-year chart. ETH doesn't do a slow and steady rise up. It explodes, corrects, sleeps, an then does it all over again. Can you figure out when it's going to run again? I know I can't, but I am sure that it will- and probably sooner rather than later. + +We are on the cusp of real utility with this technology, and almost everyone that is smart in this space believes that Ethereum will be leading the way. If you're thinking in a timeline of years, I'd say seriously consider dollar cost averaging into these dips. I doubt you'll be disappointed when you look back on it. +The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with a low ability of a given task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task. We are incapable of objective evaluation of our own competency levels. I'm writing about it as I've come to realise I suffer from it. + +Dunning and Kruger's main finding from their 1999 study “Unskilled and Unaware of it” was that the worst performers consistently overestimate their ability relative to others. + +I've outlined two examples of this bias in action and how you can avoid some of these pitfalls: + +1. Investing + +As the age old saying goes, "Everyone is a genius in a bull market." + +When your portfolio is growing and the markets are ripping as they have in 2020, many fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger Effect. We tend to wrongly attribute this performance to our ability as talented investors. + +2. Politics + +An obvious example people have been using recently is Donald Trump, whose confidence never wavers, despite his weak interest and understanding of policy matters. + +The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is you don't know you're a member of the Dunning-Kruger club. But we're all human, and it's important to recognise that we are all prone to this cognitive bias. + +Here are a few strategies to avoid it: + +1. Identify your circle of competence + +The circle of competence is a sacred place. It's a set of topics or areas that align with a person's expertise. Be ruthless in identifying and protecting the boundaries, and it's usually smaller than you think. + +As Charlie Munger said, "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of being very intelligent." + +Know your competencies, focus on them. Know your incompetencies, avoid or outsource them. + +2. Be a first principles thinker + +A first principle is a foundational assumption or proposition - it is foundational in that it cannot be deduced from other assumptions. In chemistry, it's like an element. It cannot be broken down further. + +Ground yourself in foundational truths and build up from there. Challenge your reasoning, and most importantly, always ask why. + +"It isn't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure that just isn't so." + +Link to original: https://mrsk.substack.com/p/everyone-is-a-genius-in-a-bull-market +To my limited understanding, Sweden has nailed their economic model – they manage to sustain a high-innovation, socially-supportive economy that I think should be the model for America and elsewhere. + +As I understand it, this is the result of mechanisms that include: + +* High income and consumption taxes, with substantial government spending allocated towards free healthcare and education +* Incentives for entrepreneurship (inc. paid leave of absence to start a company) +* Low taxes on capital (wealth, property, inheritance) + +My question is in the title: Why do they prefer income and consumption taxes to taxes on capital (are they intending to incentivize entrepreneurship, or is this not the explanation)? And does this have downstream effects for inequality (Sweden seems to have a pretty low Gini coefficient)? +**Quick Background**: Citadel is short on GME. They sold shares without owning them and now have a liability to buy those shares back. They don’t need to have the cash on hand to buy these shares. They can just say, “we have value in other assets that we can sell later”. This is called margin. If the value of those assets goes down or the liability on the shorts goes up to the point where the assets no longer substantially cover the liability (i.e. the maintenance margin), the broker can force Citadel to cover. This is a margin call. + +&#x200B; + +All that to say Citadel needs asset value to avoid covering. + +&#x200B; + +Citadel is required to report their assets to the SEC every quarter on a form called the 13F. Specifically a 13F-HR, for holding report. This is public information and available on the SEC website. The website also hosts 13G forms, which become important in a second. + +&#x200B; + +At a glance, Citadel’s 13F looks normal. They own a wide array of stocks and options – except, interestingly enough, GameStop which they only hold options in. It’s a little peculiar they would own options without covering with underlying stock, but hey, what are you going to do when there are no shares around? That’s not the point of this DD though. + +&#x200B; + +What’s **really** interesting is the number of SPACs on their 13F. SPACs – or Special Purpose Acquisition Company’s – are publicly traded companies with the sole purpose of buying another company. Or in their own words: + +&#x200B; + +“<Insert Ridiculous SPAC Name Here> is a blank check company whose business purpose is to effect a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses….” + +&#x200B; + +I’m not going to get into any more details. Google it if you want. What’s important is that Citadel has been buying the shit out of these companies over the last year. How do we know? There are a couple ways to tell. First, a SPAC investor must file a 13G with the SEC if they own more than 5% of the total stock issued. Secondly, they need to report it on their 13F. + +&#x200B; + +\*DISCLAIMER: It’s possible not all the 13Gs filled by Citadel are SPACs, but after going through and checking many of them I would say the majority are\* + +&#x200B; + +Here is what the 13Gs say. Between January 2016 and November 2020 Citadel filled 40 of them. Between December 2020 and now they filled 203. What coincidental timing. There was a month in 2021 where they were buying a SPAC a day. The visual is quite jarring. + +&#x200B; + +[13G Forms filed by Month-Year](https://preview.redd.it/8wji1dcxs3h81.png?width=1371&format=png&auto=webp&s=035f31d5dd51e791d8d1eccb4bf9cfdf5b3f5ae6) + +&#x200B; + +Now what do the 13Fs say? It’s more complicated. 13Fs don’t include a date of purchase nor do they specify if a company is a SPAC or not. But it’s pretty easy to tell. Most SPACs have the word “Acquisition” in their name. Yeah, it’s that simple (good thinking, Ken!). Some don’t. There are a couple that use “Merger” or “Holdings” instead. But let’s call it a safety factor. + +&#x200B; + +Some examples of SPACs on the Citadel 13F: + +PLUM ACQUISITION CORP I + +SPARTAN ACQUISITION CORP III + +SPARTACUS ACQUISITION CORP + +&#x200B; + +Glossing over the fact that these names are hilarious, Citadel submitted that they own shares and/or warrants of 287 distinct SPACs. Warrants are just call options that were written by (and therefore exercisable against) the company itself. Combined, these SPAC assets total around $2.7 Billion. + +&#x200B; + +*OK quick check in: Citadel is short and needs assets to avoid a margin call. A lot of these assets are SPACs that they bought in the last year. The total value is upward of $2.7 Billion.* + +&#x200B; + +Still with me? Here is where is gets fun. And by fun, I mean a disgusting abuse of the open market. + +&#x200B; + +Going forward I’m going to pick one SPAC as an example, but what you’re about to read applies to all of them. I have picked Far Peak Acquisition Corp. Why? Because the name is short and easy to spell. You’re out of your mind if you think I’m going to type “Decarbonization Plus Acquisition Corp”, every time I want to search it. Yes, that is a real Citadel owned SPAC. But more importantly Citadel owns millions of shares of Far Peak which is enough to show up on a 13G. + +&#x200B; + +The question becomes where Citadel bought these shares and for how much. We know they didn’t buy them on the open market for a couple reasons. Firstly, they had 2.5M Far Peak shares on their December 31st 2020 13F, but the IPO wasn’t until January 19th 2021. Secondly, the 13G from January 19th 2021 (yes, the IPO date) states Citadel owns over 10M shares and the trade volume on that day just doesn’t match. So where did they come from? + +&#x200B; + +For answers, we look to Far Peak’s 424B4 form, also known as a Prospectus. The Prospectus is filled before an IPO and has financial and security information that must be given to potential investors. + +&#x200B; + +Here are the key takeaways from Far Peak’s Prospectus. + +1. After the proposed public offering there will be 64,750,000 shares outstanding +2. 55,000,000 of these shares are Class A ordinary shares that will be offered publicly at a price of $10.00\*\* +3. The remaining 9,750,000 shares are Class B ordinary shares that are owned by company directors and initial stakeholders. + +\*\*For just the low, low price of $10.00 Far Peaks will throw in 1/3 of a warrant too! + +&#x200B; + +These Class B ordinary shares must be what Citadel owned prior to the IPO because there were no Class A stocks created yet. Class B shares are also known as “Founder Shares” and they can be converted into Class A shares at a 1:1 ratio. + +&#x200B; + +Where is the 13G to support that Citadel bought these Founder Shares? There isn’t one because the company was still private. It isn’t until the IPO that they are required to report. Which is why on January 19th 2021 (again, yes, the same day as the IPO) they submitted that they owned over 10M Class A shares. Class A! They converted as soon as it was possible. + +&#x200B; + +*Check in #2: Still doing ok? Great. Citadel needs assets to maintain their margin. They buy a butt-ton of SPAC Founder Shares before IPO. Founder Shares convert to Class A public shares 1-to-1. The company is offering Class A public shares at $10.00 a pop on the exchange. Citadel exercises their conversion rights immediately on IPO day.* + +&#x200B; + +Ok, I’ll finally tell you how much Citadel paid for these Founder Shares that can be converted into $10.00 Class A shares. + +&#x200B; + +**$0.0026** + +&#x200B; + +Just over a fifth of a cent. + +&#x200B; + +[From Far Peak's Prospectus](https://preview.redd.it/ntfp4tbxt3h81.png?width=1560&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff6446b1c956d113e9e479961703d20f8c035391) + +&#x200B; + +And now everything comes full circle. Citadel is buying Founder Shares pre-IPO @ $0.0026 and then using the Class A conversion @ $10.00 for their asset reporting. Between Citadel and the other Far Peak initial stakeholders, they turned $25,000 into $97,000,000 overnight on just this one SPAC. Literally overnight. Remember, Citadel owns positions in at least 287 SPACs. + +&#x200B; + +And just to confirm let’s check the 13F again. + +&#x200B; + +[From Citadel Advisors LLC 13F-HR](https://preview.redd.it/g7tohyg7u3h81.png?width=1575&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f3addb3be5c888e76545c28ddfb76297ae60982) + +&#x200B; + +You can ignore the warrants and options for now. I might make a Part 2 later if there is interest. + +&#x200B; + +The fourth column is the USD value x1000 and the fifth column is the number of shares. So, 2,763,464 shares over a total value of $27,496,000 = $9.95 a share. I casual 382,592% increase in value. + +&#x200B; + +*Tl;dr / Final Check in: Citadel is buying Founder Shares in SPACs pre-IPO for cents on the dollar and then converting them to Class A stock worth 4000x more than what they paid. This creates false inflation of their asset book and helps them to stay under the maintenance margin.* + +&#x200B; + +\--- + +&#x200B; + +~~Let’s talk dilution. You can stop reading here. This section isn’t part of the original thesis, but it made my skin crawl and I had to include it.~~ + +&#x200B; + +~~When someone buys a share in a SPAC, most of that money goes into something called a trust account. The idea is that when the SPAC finds a target company to purchase, it uses the money in the trust account to do it. Makes sense. But what if they don’t find a company to purchase within the allotted time? In that case the trust is divided up and returned to the shareholders. Except wait. 15% of the outstanding shares are owned by insiders… And these insiders paid a fraction of what the average investor did. They get a chunk of that trust money too. And not a proportional amount to what they deposited. They get an equal split.~~ + +&#x200B; + +~~Here's an example. Let’s say there is (1) Founder Share that an insider bought for $0.01 and (1) Class A public share that I bought for $10.00. The trust account would have $10.01. In the case of a failed acquisition, I’m not getting my $10.00 back. I’m only getting $5.00. The owner of the Founder Share is getting the other $5.00. It's criminal imo.~~ + +&#x200B; + +~~But hey, if they are successful, you just paid for some hedge fund to own 50% of the acquired company - and that’s actually the better outcome.~~ + +&#x200B; + +THIS IS NOT TRUE. Founder Shares lose their redemption and liquidity rights when they convert to Class A stocks and an acquisition hasn't gone through yet. It's only after a successful acquisition that converted Founder Shares are redeemable. I apologize for the error. + +\--- + +&#x200B; + +Big shout out to u/3_Midgets_In_A_Coat for doing some amazing research and pointing out the Founders Share documentation. Would highly recommended their posts if you have the interest. + +&#x200B; + +As always not financial advice, please call me out if I made an error, I can’t say for sure Citadel hasn’t covered, yada yada. + +&#x200B; + +🚀 +It’s a dark day, and what better way to release something that so clearly reveals and neglects the corruption in the financial industry than on a day that no one outside of the know will be talking about it. There are much bigger headlines for the average person to be occupied with. + +This post isn’t to get political. I’m seething. Their actions are so transparent and self interested (protect the rich) and unlike Mark Baum, I have absolutely no respect for them. + +It’s up to us, Apes. Keep up the pressure. Buy, Hodl, shop. Keep DRS’ing your shares. The game has to stop. The future desperately needs us. + +Edit: Many are asking what the report says. Check out this comment by u/NotYourFathersKhakis on another post https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vjo1ii/comment/idjylke/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 + +Also, many are asking what the bigger news story is. It is the overturning of Roe vs. Wade - states now have the right to pass their own abortion laws. + +Edit 2: Someone in the comments mentioned that it felt insensitive to be talking about the stock market with the events going on. That thought had crossed my mind as well, but this isn’t a this or that scenario. It’s a this, and also this situation. But in my opinion (and probably many of yours as well, judging from the comments) that is also a motive as to why the report was released today. Don’t fall for the divide and conquer. +I never managed to have 10k in cash in my bank account due to being irresponsible with credit and not being financially educated. + +After reading BFI and changing my mindset towards money, I have finally managed to save 10k + +[Woohoo](https://imgur.com/a/r1gjpTa) +In my credit card's April-May billing cycle, I spent **$770** eating out as *one person.* I decided to track my spending in this area by putting all my meals I've been eating out on a credit card used only for that purpose. I looked at the end of the month and was absolutely dumbfounded at the amount of money I was spending eating out. I thought it might be $300ish dollars! + +Anyway, I paid off the credit card (angrily) and made a vow I would eat at home at every possible meal I could for the foreseeable future. I've spent about $70 a week on groceries, (was about $50/week prior) so plus $42, I went from and $1000/mo food expense (how the ever living hell was I making ends meet with this?) to $322/mo. And the kicker is I still have tons of food leftover at the end of the week. The only two meals I bought this month were a BK chicken sandwich while I was on the road and a birthday meal for someone. + +It feels awesome to have a 70% reduction in spending in this area just due to self control. + +I'm planning on using this self control in other areas. Next one is booze and cigarettes. Then my shitty habit of mobile game micro transactions. + +Sometimes I don't know how I've made it this far without being broke. +For all the recessions they caused. For all the jobs and homes people have lost. For all the people that can't pay for college because minimum wage has stagnated while wall street gets rich. For all the retail traders they left holding the bag. For all the times they got bailed out with our tax money while we got nothing. + +&#x200B; + +GME isn't about greed. It's about taking back what's ours, what we've already paid for. Obligatory 🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: full disclosure I’m 25K in + +Hijacking my own post for visibility. Do not worry about trade halts, they are normal. Status here: https://www.nyse.com/trade-halt-current + +Why price drops: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6ziii/read_this_if_your_scared_we_will_go_up_again/ +Say I had invested and saved wisely and could pay off my mortgage 10-15 years early. Should I do it? Or should I continue to invest and hopefully make more? + +Edit: + +$480,000 total mortgage. Only a year in. +2.3% interest on mortgage + +Edit 2: +There appears to be 3 main points: + +1. Paying off your mortgage gives you peace of mind and a security of lower outgoing expenses in the chance your income changes drastically. + +2. Investing in mutual funds, ETFs, other safer funds/securities can return higher than my current 2.3% mortgage rate. + +3. If I own 20% of my home, I can do a Smith Maneuver and get a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) to get the best of both worlds but I am borrowing against my home so it’s riskier. +[Here is the article.](https://wgntv.com/news/naperville-man-takes-his-own-life-after-seeing-730k-negative-balance-on-investment-app/) + +I tried posting this on the Robinhood sub but someone else already posted it and was removed by the sub's mods. I wonder why. + +I've also experienced quite a handful of bugs using Robinhood, or at least when I still used the app. Just off the top of my head I can remember a countless amount of UI bugs that prevented me from selling or buying a stock during early market hours. + +There were also bugs that delayed real prices of a stock by several minutes, sometimes up to half an hour forcing me to use other sources with more accurate price information like Google Finance or TD to submit properly priced orders. + +Another frustrating bug I remember is the instant deposit almost never working in a timely fashion. It was always late by several days. + +The final straw when I outright transferred all my money and deleted the app was about 3 years ago when Robinhood's services were down for an ENTIRE HOUR while I was daytrading $BABA a couple days after an earnings beat. I lost about $600 in that hour, but it could have been much, much worse. + +The bug this young investor experienced is not something rare or uncommon with Robinhood. More people need to understand this company has a long history of corrupt support, terrible servers and networks, and countless UI bugs. Given this tragic news, don't make the same mistake. Use a different brokerage. +Hi everyone! I am Brad DeLong. I am about to publish a book, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Long 20th Century, 1870-2010 <[bit.ly/3pP3Krk](https://bit.ly/3pP3Krk)\>. It is a political-economy focused history. Ask me anything! + +The long 20th century—the first whose history was primarily economic, with the economy not painted scene-backdrop but rather revolutionizing humanity's life every single generation— taught humanity expensive lessons. The most important of them is this: Only a shotgun marriage of Friedrich von Hayek to Karl Polanyi, a marriage blessed by John Maynard Keynes—a marriage that itself has failed its own sustainability tests—has humanity been able to even slouch towards the utopia that the explosion of our science and technological competence ought to have made our birthright. Whether we ever justify the full bill run up over the 150 years since 1870 will likely depend on whether we remember that lesson. + +Friedrich von Hayek—a genius—was the one who most keen-sightedly observed that the market economy is tremendously effective at crowdsourcing solutions. The market economy, plus industrial research labs, modern corporations, and globalization, were keys to the cage keeping humanity desperately poor. Hayek drew from this the conclusion: “the market giveth, the market taketh away: blessed be the name of the market.” Humans disagreed. As genius Karl Polanyi saw, humans needed more rights than just property rights. The market’s treating those whom society saw as equals unequally, or unequals equally, brought social explosion after explosion, blocking the road to utopia. + +Not “blessed be the name of the market” but “the market was made for man, not man for the market” was required if humanity was to even slouch towards a utopia that potential material abundance should have made straightforward. But how? Since 1870 humans—John Maynard Keynes, Benito Mussolini, Vladimir Lenin, and others—have tried solutions, demanding that the market do less, or different, and other institutions do more. Only government, tamed government, focusing and rebalancing things to secure more Polanyian rights for more citizens have brought the Eldorado of a truly human world into view. + +But ask me anything... +Hello, + +I'm a student of economics pursuing masters but I am really doubtful whether economics is of any use at all in policy making and market analysis. I am having mixed feelings about my career and I am really confused. I wanted to ask a few questions about it that would help me clear my mind. I hope I'm posting this in the right community, if not then I'm really sorry. If people say economics is useless then why do we even have central banks, taxes, economic appraisals and all? If nothing in economics is valid even at a PhD level, then how is the economy running? Are all the research papers drafted in economics just waste to do anything about policy making, industry research or solve economic issues? Should economics not be chosen by anyone who plans to go for a Phd in it and wants to work in the government or as economic analyst for companies? I want to basically work in the work for government, research institutes or large energy or construction corporations. I want a job to do sector and industry analysis and external environment analysis like PEST. I want also work in monetary policy making and financial policy making as well. So, do you think that economics will not obsolete for at least the careers and tasks mentioned above + +I hope someone can answer these questions for me and I'm really sorry if I offended with the questions asked above but I didn't intend to. + +&#x200B; + +Thank you. +If so, what was the portfolio size that made that OK for you? + +I am thinking about doing it with a portfolio of about a quarter mil and average net premiums of about 3500/m from CCs on top of market gains of about 6500/m. + +Potential to add maybe another 100k if the market tanked to buy the mega dip between a HELOC and my spouse's portfolio which I don't currently manage and which is currently S&P and forget. + +I would probably volunteer at a charity just to keep getting out of the house, as long as they were fine with the idea that I get to set that charity stuff aside and trade as needed to pay myself so they don't have to pay me. + +Dual income household, so a bad month wouldn't be a disaster. + +Upside, I get to feel like I am giving back to society rather than trading time for dollars. + +\- Edit - Thanks for the silver. Thanks for the multiple instances of Hugz also. +Bills are paid, I work from home so gas in my car is what it is, I have pancake batter so I can make pancakes for breakfast and lunch, spaghetti sauce and noodles for dinner. Just sucks. + +I splurged on the tree, I wanted the tree of my dreams so I didn’t get that one but I got the cheapest one that was close enough. Last year I didn’t bother with a tree because I was broke, lonely, and depressed (first Christmas by myself). With the shit show that is 2020 I didn’t want a repeat of last year. + +Just venting. + +Edit: thank you all for your support and offers of help. Stimulus check and paycheck hit so I’m doing fine for now, I’m sure there’ll be another fire to put out at some point but I’ll weather it when it happens. + +Thank you for the awards, I’ve never gotten any and have no idea what to do with them but it’s pretty cool nonetheless! + +2021 is here and I’m hopeful that it’s going to be a better year for everyone +Hi everyone! This is Ran Abramitzky from Stanford and Leah Boustan from Princeton. We are economics professors and economic historians. We recently published a book [Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/). [Proof](https://twitter.com/leah_boustan/status/1549397846247489536?s=20&t=57u_XPvV9-TBP_uQyip-oQ). + +Immigration is one of the most fraught, and possibly most misunderstood, topics in American public life. [Streets of Gold](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/) uses big data and ten years of pioneering research to provide new evidence about the past and present of the American Dream. + +Turning to the data provides a new take on American history with surprising results: + +* **Upward Mobility**: Children of immigrants from nearly every country, especially those of poor immigrants, do better economically than children of U.S.-born residents – a pattern that has held for more than a century. +* **Rapid Assimilation**: Immigrants accused of lack of assimilation (such as Mexicans today and the Irish in the past) actually assimilate fastest. +* **Helps U.S. Born**: Closing the door to immigrants harms the economic prospects of the U.S.-born—the people politicians are trying to protect. + +[Streets of Gold](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/) weaves together the data with powerful stories of immigrants from a century ago and today. In building historical data on immigrant lives, we acted like dedicated family genealogists – but millions of times over. + +Happy to answer questions about immigration, past and present, or about our earlier work on the Israeli kibbutz (Ran) or the Great Black Migration (Leah). Also interested in your thoughts about US economic history more broadly, or about academia and career advice for younger scholars. + +Ask Us Anything! We'll be collecting questions this morning and then start responding at 1pm Eastern/10am Pacific. + +**Edit**: Ran and I have to log off at 3pm Eastern for another meeting. But we can come back later to check on any questions that are posted after we leave. Thanks for the great chat! +"It seems that in the United States, at least, app developers and advertisers who rely on targeted mobile advertising for revenue are seeing their worst fears realized: Analytics data published this week suggests that US users choose to opt out of tracking 96 percent of the time in the wake of iOS 14.5. + +When Apple released iOS 14.5 late last month, it began enforcing a policy called App Tracking Transparency. iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV apps are now required to request users' permission to use techniques like IDFA (ID for Advertisers) to track those users' activity across multiple apps for data collection and ad targeting purposes. + +The change met fierce resistance from companies like Facebook, whose market advantages and revenue streams are built on leveraging users' data to target the most effective ads at those users. Facebook went so far as to take out full-page newspaper ads claiming that the change would not just hurt Facebook but would destroy small businesses around the world. Shortly after, Apple CEO Tim Cook attended a data privacy conference and delivered a speech that harshly criticized Facebook's business model. + +Nonetheless, Facebook and others have complied with Apple's new rule to avoid being rejected from the iPhone's App Store, though some apps present a screen explaining why users should opt in before the Apple-mandated prompt to opt in or out appears." + +Source: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/05/96-of-us-users-opt-out-of-app-tracking-in-ios-14-5-analytics-find/ +A friend just said this to me, yet his parents pay for all of his bills other than his mortgage. Without that, he wouldn’t be able to afford his home. + +Ah, the joy of dealing with people who think they worked hard for everything they have without acknowledging all the help from their parents, and then put you down for not being on their level. 🤬 +Short post here… just wanted to throw out a friendly reminder to live your life to the fullest now and don’t just look towards retirement. Just got news tonight that a good friend of 10+ years from grad school passed away in a totally random, freak accident. While it’s obviously important to stock away money for retirement, don’t sacrifice too much now because you never know when your time will run out. + +Edit: he was in his early-mid 30’s, was an avid hiker and died by getting buried by an avalanche while hiking. Still can’t really believe it. +Hello everyone. I (30F) am getting married in a few months. Right now my fiancé and I make approximately the same salary (50k/year) and split all expenses evenly for the house we own together. + +However, I am a resident physician and in two years when my training is finished my salary is going to increase to around 300k. We both grew up in low income households. He is not an outlandish spender but is not that interested in financial planning. I, on the other hand, have a lot of anxiety regarding money. I am the one who started our rewards credit card (we pay off every month), signed up for retirement matching through my employer, opened a Roth IRA, and high yield savings account. + +While I plan on spending my life with him, I am not naive about the divorce rate in our country. I feel like I am doing a lot of work to make us financially sound but I also bring a lot of student loan debt to the table (350k). + +So my question is should I ask for a prenup? Will I even make enough for a prenup to matter? or is this just my anxiety? He is incredibly supportive and I don’t want him to feel like I expect us to fail. But on the other hand I put myself through school and went through a lot of hardship to get where I am. Help! +Please don't be too harsh on me if the answer is incredibly simple, but the other day I was thinking about how a lot of manufacturing worldwide has moved into countries such as China, Bangladesh, etc which has made the price of goods in the West a lot cheaper. + +Then I hear about how the US is trying to bring manufacturing back to the mainland to sure up the supply chains. But then hear people say "but it'll be much more expensive!" + +Really my question is: if there was far more manufacturing in countries such as the US back in the 50s-60s, why weren't the prices incredibly expensive? Or were they, but the products weren't meant to be obsolete within a few years like they are now? + +Thank you. :) +I’m 20 years old, and I’ve traded Forex for around a year now. The trading lifestyle definitely has its ups and downs. I remember first starting out and using Excel to find out my potential profits. I remember thinking to myself, “Wow! If I grow my account 3% a day I’ll be a millionaire in no time!” Seeing the Excel sheets and the compounding growth gave me a motivation that I’ve never experienced in my entire life. I read so many books on trading from Babypips all the way to Advanced Quantitative Trading Techniques. I’ve been very successful so far and have made more money than a 20 year old should have, but for all those thinking that this is an easy road, it’s not. + +It saddens me seeing the countless people getting into trading whether it be securities or Forex and losing it all. People that lack basic fundamental knowledge “yoloing” their life savings on options or over leveraging their accounts and blowing it up within days or weeks. This game requires patience and a drive to learn. You’d have better luck going to Vegas than trying to trade if you don’t put in the time and work. At the same time, I think this is something everyone can do. You don’t need to be especially smart to be successful. Having a passion for this is really all this takes. If you can sit down for 8 hours and enjoy reading and learning, you’re in the right place. + +Please, I beg of you. Don’t watch a YouTube video and think “I’m gonna be a millionaire,” and throw your life savings at this. The most important advice ever given to me was that you should always be ready to lose everything you put into this. It’s going to cost you time, money, and probably your sanity, but if you can pull it off, you won’t have to endure a life slaving away at some corporate finance firm working 100+ hours a week doing menial tasks for your dickhead boss. + +Edit: Super happy that so many people found this helpful! +The largest coal company in the US is Peabody Energy and has a market cap of $144M. Why don’t environmental groups or companies concerned about climate change buy up a controlling interest in these company and shut them down? Certainly companies like Google or Apple could do it and the cost would be a rounding error in their annual report. +**What is this tool good for** + +I often use the theta gang wheel strategy by selling cash secured puts close to at-the-money and I like to see where I can get some bang for my buck. A quick scan of the list will tell me what IV is looking like for certain stocks and when earnings is coming up and whether or not I want to do a weekly theta YOLO for earnings. You can sort by IV, stock price, or Earnings and filter by ticker. + +Here's some of the top tickers from this weekend. Instead of making a full list of tickers ranked by IV, I'll share some of the more common tickers mentioned. + +# High IV Tickers List + +\*Some of the market cap data is off, so always double check before entering any plays! + +|Ticker|Market Cap|Stock Price|IV (%)| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|RIOT - Riot Blockchain...|4.82B|$71.84|264%| +|SNDL - Sundial Growers...|2.37B|$1.52|260%| +|MARA - Marathon Patent...|2.75B|$43.65|244%| +|CCIV - Churchill Capit...|10.9B|$54.79|233%| +|APHA - Aphria Inc|6.42B|$20.11|180%| +|GME - Gamestop Corpor...|2.84B|$40.47|173%| +|TLRY - Tilray Inc - Cl...|3.9B|$29.08|166%| +|NNDM - Nano Dimension ...|138M|$13.75|162%| +|FUBO - fuboTV Inc|2.91B|$42.92|157%| +|SOLO - Electrameccanic...|593M|$7.28|154%| +|AMC - AMC Entertainme...|1.63B|$5.67|148%| +|SRNE - Sorrento Therap...|3.46B|$13.17|148%| +|DGLY - Digital Ally In...|88.2M|$2.38|147%| +|HYLN - Hyliion Holding...|2.77B|$18.02|145%| +|FCEL - Fuelcell Energy...|6.53B|$20.17|143%| +|WKHS - Workhorse Group...|3.96B|$32.93|133%| +|ARCT - Arcturus Therap...|1.64B|$66.33|131%| +|MSTR - Microstrategy I...|8.93B|$964.59|130%| +|SPCE - Virgin Galactic...|12B|$50.96|125%| +|LAZR - Luminar Technol...|7.37B|$33.69|125%| +|BLNK - Blink Charging ...|1.65B|$46.16|124%| +|QS - QuantumScape Co...|12.9B|$62.73|123%| +|SBE - Switchback Ener...|1.14B|$36.25|123%| +|ACB - Aurora Cannabis...|2.41B|$12.20|118%| +|CODX - Co-Diagnostics ...|482M|$17.00|118%| +|CRON - Cronos Group In...|4.42B|$12.22|118%| +|PLTR - Palantir Techno...|42.7B|$28.86|117%| +|OSTK - Overstock.com I...|4.33B|$100.76|117%| +|RIG - Transocean Ltd|2.14B|$3.48|116%| +|NKLA - Nikola Corporat...|8.2B|$21.29|113%| +|JMIA - Jumia Technolog...|4.99B|$55.79|111%| +|APXT - Apex Technology...|509M|$14.22|108%| +|PSTH - Pershing Square...|5.97B|$29.85|102%| +|AI - C3.ai Inc - Cla...|0|$134.82|100%| +|SFIX - Stitch Fix Inc ...|5.01B|$79.20|100%| +|XPEV - XPeng Inc - ADR...|19.8B|$40.81|100%| +|GRWG - GrowGeneration ...|2.13B|$57.23|99%| +|CRSR - Corsair Gaming ...|3.58B|$38.61|98%| +|LMND - Lemonade Inc|8.41B|$148.31|97%| +|HOME - At Home Group I...|1.76B|$27.20|97%| +|PLUG - Plug Power Inc|26.2B|$55.55|96%| +|NIO - NIO Inc - ADR|85.8B|$54.70|95%| +|DASH - DoorDash Inc - ...|0|$208.26|93%| +|GSX - Gsx Techedu Inc...|15.1B|$103.37|93%| +|UPWK - Upwork Inc|6.84B|$55.48|91%| +|RKT - Rocket Companie...|2.34B|$20.30|89%| +|APPS - Digital Turbine...|7.59B|$84.52|89%| +|BB - BlackBerry Ltd|6.15B|$10.84|87%| +|PRPL - Purple Innovati...|2.45B|$40.03|86%| +|CCL - Carnival Corp. ...|27.1B|$24.64|86%| +|CGC - Canopy Growth C...|14.5B|$38.29|85%| +|HUYA - HUYA Inc - ADR|7.11B|$30.33|83%| +|LL - Lumber Liquidat...|817M|$28.25|81%| +|CRSP - CRISPR Therapeu...|11.2B|$149.03|81%| +|M - Macy\`s Inc|4.65B|$14.92|81%| +|NCLH - Norwegian Cruis...|5.77B|$26.90|80%| +|BYND - Beyond Meat Inc...|10.1B|$161.91|79%| +|W - Wayfair Inc - C...|21.3B|$294.56|79%| +|FVRR - Fiverr Internat...|10.3B|$318.12|78%| +|BBBY - Bed, Bath & Bey...|3.21B|$26.30|77%| +|CVNA - Carvana Co. - C...|14.4B|$309.03|76%| +|CNK - Cinemark Holdin...|2.58B|$21.66|76%| +|SAVE - Spirit Airlines...|3.47B|$35.66|75%| +|MRNA - Moderna Inc|69.1B|$174.89|74%| +|X - United States S...|4.7B|$17.93|74%| +|ENPH - Enphase Energy ...|24.5B|$188.77|74%| +|COTY - Coty Inc - Clas...|5.9B|$7.59|74%| +|DKNG - DraftKings Inc ...|23.8B|$60.67|73%| +|PENN - Penn National G...|18.7B|$120.38|72%| +|OXY - Occidental Petr...|23.7B|$25.63|72%| +|CLDR - Cloudera Inc|5.84B|$18.62|72%| +|ABNB - Airbnb Inc - Cl...|121B|$200.70|72%| +|BIDU - Baidu Inc - ADR...|118B|$341.03|72%| +|SNOW - Snowflake Inc -...|82.5B|$288.58|71%| +|ZM - Zoom Video Comm...|119B|$417.28|70%| +|ETSY - Etsy Inc|28.7B|$228.26|70%| +|FSLY - Fastly Inc - Cl...|8.26B|$80.38|69%| +|GPS - Gap, Inc.|9.04B|$24.11|69%| +|AAL - American Airlin...|11.9B|$18.64|69%| +|IQ - iQIYI Inc - ADR...|18B|$24.64|69%| +|FROG - JFrog Ltd|6.16B|$66.47|68%| +|BIG - Big Lots Inc|2.38B|$63.21|67%| +|CHWY - Chewy Inc - Cla...|45.4B|$114.00|67%| +|SHAK - Shake Shack Inc...|4.77B|$124.00|66%| +|DISH - Dish Network Co...|17.7B|$33.92|66%| +|SE - Sea Ltd - ADR|122B|$278.19|65%| +|CZR - Caesars Enterta...|14B|$83.05|63%| +|RCL - Royal Caribbean...|17.7B|$79.05|63%| +|SEDG - Solaredge Techn...|16.5B|$322.56|63%| +|PTON - Peloton Interac...|36.8B|$139.06|62%| +|LB - L Brands Inc|14B|$50.47|61%| +|ZS - Zscaler Inc|30.3B|$224.64|61%| +|FEYE - FireEye Inc|4.75B|$20.75|61%| +|SQ - Square Inc - Cl...|118B|$276.73|61%| +|NET - Cloudflare Inc ...|25.3B|$81.92|61%| +|CRWD - Crowdstrike Hol...|45B|$239.02|61%| +|CREE - Cree, Inc.|13.9B|$125.17|61%| +|UAL - United Airlines...|14B|$48.23|60%| +|U - Unity Software ...|32.9B|$120.70|59%| +|TDOC - Teladoc Health ...|42.4B|$293.49|59%| +|PBR - Petroleo Brasil...|21.1B|$10.12|58%| +|SMAR - Smartsheet Inc ...|10.1B|$82.44|58%| +|DBX - Dropbox Inc - C...|7.41B|$23.65|58%| +|TSLA - Tesla Inc|750B|$778.67|58%| +|PINS - Pinterest Inc -...|53.1B|$86.10|57%| +|ROKU - Roku Inc - Clas...|59.3B|$464.49|57%| +|DOCU - DocuSign Inc|49.4B|$265.07|57%| +|SNAP - Snap Inc - Clas...|97.6B|$65.36|56%| +|TAN - Invesco Capital...|4.62B|$110.64|56%| +|NOK - Nokia Corp - AD...|2.67B|$4.07|56%| +|ESTC - Elastic N.V|14.2B|$161.92|56%| +|TWTR - Twitter Inc|57.7B|$72.37|55%| +|LYFT - Lyft Inc Cls A|18.2B|$58.71|54%| +|Z - Zillow Group In...|42.9B|$181.48|53%| +|SPOT - Spotify Technol...|66B|$361.80|53%| +|MGM - MGM Resorts Int...|18B|$36.48|53%| +|EAT - Brinker Interna...|3.25B|$72.39|53%| +|HAL - Halliburton Co....|18B|$20.27|53%| +|DDOG - Datadog Inc - C...|21.8B|$104.41|52%| +|YETI - YETI Holdings I...|6.53B|$74.91|52%| +|MELI - MercadoLibre In...|95.4B|$1905.00|52%| +|TEVA - Teva- Pharmaceu...|12.1B|$11.04|52%| +|WYNN - Wynn Resorts Lt...|13.3B|$123.61|51%| +|TTD - Trade Desk Inc ...|37.9B|$902.01|51%| +|TWLO - Twilio Inc Clas...|59.7B|$426.39|51%| +|OKTA - Okta Inc - Clas...|35B|$286.06|51%| +|RH - RH - Class A|10.3B|$503.93|51%| +|UBER - Uber Technologi...|103B|$58.27|50%| +Ralph Wanger once analogized the stock market to a man walking his dog in New York. + +The man has done the same walk for years, starting at Columbus Circle, strolling through Central Park, and ending at the Metropolitan Museum of Art. + +The dog has boundless energy and never walks in a straight line. He leaps randomly from one direction to the next, stops to smell every leaf, barks at other dogs, and jumps on you for no reason. + +At any moment, there is no predicting what the dog will do or which way he'll leap. His movements are totally unpredictable. But you know he's heading northeast at about three miles per hour, toward the museum, where he'll eventually end up - because that's where the owner is taking him. + +What is astonishing," Wanger said, "is that almost all investors, big and small, seem to have their eye on the dog, and not the owner." + +As you navigate your life as an investor, pay more attention to the owner (businesses) and less to the dog (markets). +Chances are if you're in this sub, you've thought of this or already did it (either successfully or unsuccessfully). I'm not trying to be a millionaire off of daytrading, I'm trying to make a viable income ($50-80k a year) in less time than a full-time job so I can focus more energy on other things (my son, my side hustle, my health, just life in general). + +I've been daytrading for about a month and have seen decent success, but admittedly still have a whole universe to learn. + +Why should/shouldn't I just go out on a limb, quit my soul-sucking job, and attempt to daytrade for a living? + +*Edit* Thank you all for the incredible response. The constructive (and even the not so constructive😂) feedback has been awesome to sift through. I’ve got a lot left to learn and received realistic comments. Stay hungry my friends. +[Original Post from two years ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/bukk9z/sharing_my_re_experience_currently_at_4_months/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +I was fatFIREd two years ago. The writing was on the wall and I knew I would be laid off at some point, I just didn’t know when. Over the past two years, with some of my free time, I took up a competitive sport. This weekend I finally achieved a goal that I had been trying in this sport for 8 years. It reminded me how far I had gone since my original post, and I figure I would provide an update. + +1). I thought I would have a lot of time without a full time job. I ended up buying / running businesses in three different categories and run them as owner. I also started a non profit. And I went deep into two competitive sports, one in the winter and one in the summer. At one point it felt busier than when I was working full time. So eventually I hired managers for my businesses and just manage the mangers so I become an absentee owner. Less profit, but I bought my time back. + +2). My wife and I had been W2 earners almost our entire lives until I fatFIREd two years ago. Since then I’ve learned about tax breaks and deductions available to businesses, mostly from depreciation and tax credits. It’s eye opening and refreshing which helped with continued growth in our NW. + +3). One of my biggest regrets with my older kids was that I had almost zero recollection of their infant years because I was working so hard. Over the past two years I got to spend a ton of time with my youngest son. There was a sense of redemption and making up for lost time / memory. I was really really happy about that. + +4). In the original post I shared my mental health issues due to the stressful job. I was already back in decent shape when I was fatFIREd two years ago. Now I’d say I am mostly in a state of bliss. + +5). My wife still works a corporate job. Two years ago when I no longer had a corporate job, I did the math considered both going FIRE. I told my wife to share this with her boss. She was immediately promoted and then promoted again this year. + +6). Sometimes I do feel a lack of purpose, especially after I hired mangers and I basically fired myself from the day to day operations. When I did that I wanted to buy my time back, and now I sometimes feel I have too much time. But with covid I really don’t want to reduce their hours, not when I don’t really need the money but they need the job. After my youngest son enter kindergarten, I’ve considered working again for established non profits to advance causes that I care about. But then I look their pay, look at our marginal tax rate of over 50%, look at how much I am paying my managers in order for me to have time to do this job, and our daily portfolio swings, and ask what’s the point. I haven’t quite figured this one out yet. + +7). I’ve gotten really good at fixing things around the house and I’ve accumulated a great collection of tools. The other day I installed a level 2 EV charging station by myself. + +8). I am totally refreshed on geometry and soon algebra 2 to help my oldest son. It’s going to get more difficult when I have to relearn calculus. + +9). I started drinking wine almost every night and gained some covid weight... + +EDIT: I haven’t visited this forum for a while and I just sorted by best. I am proud to say that these days I usually make breakfast for my wife and kids lol. 20 years in financial services in the west coast, my biological clock wakes me up at 6. +So, around 3pm today I get an "Active Card Check" on my Monzo card from "Bird App". + +Very strange, as I'm at home and have never used Bird. Being a little suspicious, I immediately froze the card in the app. A few minutes later I get some failed transaction attempts. I cancelled the card and ordered a new one, figuring that was that. + +But this rabbit hole gets deeper. + +An hour later, I get a phone call from a guy claiming to be from Monzo. He tells me he needs to confirm some details about fraudulent Monzo activity. I'm aware Monzo never initiate phone calls directly, so red flags immediately went up. I asked him to prove he was from Monzo and he told me to check the text they'd just sent me against the customer service number on the back of my card. The text number matched Monzo’s legit service number, of course, but spoofing a number that way is trivial. + +The harder part is spoofing the number they're calling from. + +On closer inspection, the guy was calling from 0800 8021 **218**. Monzo's legit CS department number is 0800 8021 **281**. I'm naturally cautious about scams like this, but I can see how some people could easily fall for it at a glance. + +I just told the dude I didn't believe he was from Monzo and that I'd prefer just to call them back. He said I was welcome to but that queue times are over 2 hours and it's quicker to just answer his questions right there. I laughed and hung up. + +The best part of all of this, of course, is that my Monzo account is empty anyway. Happy to waste the chap's time. + +Stay vigilant out there, folks! + + +Credit card is just like a beehive. If you know how to extract the honey from it correctly, you will benefit from it. If you don’t handle it carefully, it’s a death trap of debt. + +Comment + +Let’s look at some pros and cons of Credit Card. The first four are the Pros of Credit Card compared to Debit card while only first 2 of Cons should be applicable to debit card compared to Cash. + +### Pros + +* Credit: It gives you a revolving line of credit. +* Safety Net: Act as a backup for fund emergency till your emergency fund gets credited. +* Credit Score: Credit Card is the best tool to build up your credit score if you utilize it wisely. Don’t use more than 10% of limit to have a positive impact on the score. So better to accept the credit limit increase if the bank is offering. +* Risk: When there is a dispute on the transaction with your debit card/Net banking, the money on a debit card is frozen at your end. But with credit card, the money on hold is of Bank, not yours. +* Lounge Access: It’s always good to get food for 1-2Rs in otherwise expensive airports. Right? +* Life Insurance: Many are not aware that you get complimentary life insurance for many credit card. You just need to update the nominee details with the bank. Even though it cannot replace the need of a life insurance, why not utilize it since its free? +* Gives additional benefits like special discount offers, no cost EMI etc. time to time. +* Rewards: Most of the cards give rewards as points or cashbacks which could be redeemed against the outstanding or to get some products from their predefined catalogue. +* Tracking: Its quite easy to track the expense on the card and to provide evidence of expenses when needed (For e.g., reimbursement of the expenses you did on behalf of your employer) + +### Cons + +* EMI Trap: You could easily get EMI offers which gives 0% interest loans for purchasing something. This makes us purchase something for which we don’t have money. And we carry forward that burden for months to come to pay off the EMI. +* Fees: Double check your need of a particular card before opting for that. If you don’t need a fancy one with all the bells and whistles, then don’t take it even if you are eligible since it might be coming with a hefty annual fee. Keep in mind that even if it’s free for this year, it might not be for the coming years. +* Credit Trap: If you don’t pay the full bill before due dates, you will be charges with heavy interest rate (even up to 35-40%). Banks get profit from those interest mainly. So be responsible and pay on time. +* Cash Withdrawals: Unless its specified, the cash withdrawals are charged with interest from day 1. You are better with taking personal loan than the interest rate of the card. +* Credit Score: There is going to be enormous impact on your credit score if you forget to pay your bills on time which could take months to recover. + +## How do I get a credit card? Which credit card should I go for? + +Regarding which credit card should you opt for, ‘It depends’. If you do a lot of purchasing from amazon, Amazon ICICI card might be good for you; If you do from Flipkart, Flipkart Axis Bank might be better. If you are after the Airport lounge access, HDFC Infinia might be the best. We are just trying to sensitize you that there are different cards for different applications. So ‘which card should I get’ wont be able to get you a direct answer. + +If you just wanted a card to increase your credit score, any card with zero annual fee would do. + +Please note that most of the cards are difficult to get for the people who doesn’t have any credit history. So, you could try the below options. + +* If you are salaried, try to get one against the salary account. +* If you are not salaried, try to get one against an FD. + +## Word of Caution + +Never ever fall for the debt trap. It is the single biggest problem with the credit cards. So **use credit card only if you can pay the bill in full on or before the payment due date**. You can do several tricks like immediately doing the payment to the credit card after the purchase of an item so that your final monthly bill will be zero, sync the billing cycle of the credit card with the salary date so that you will be able to pay the bill immediately after the receipt of the salary etc. + +## Wrapping Up + +Credit Card is a double-edged sword. If you are prompt on payment and take a card which justifies your needs, then it’s better to have one. Either it can help you immensely or can destroy you based on how you treat it. +I bought my first property this week! +Nothing special just a 1 bedroom apartment. +The best part about it isn’t even ‘owning a home’. +It’s the feeling that I no longer need to feel anxious that all of my disposable income needs to go towards saving for my deposit. +I can actually set a ‘normal’ budget that meets my mortgage and my bills and now I can now take that holiday without guilt, go out for that nice dinner knowing I’m still building something. +I really do feel like there’s a hidden cost to the economy in this way from house prices. +Either way very happy. +“If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” - Warren Buffett. + + + +Warren Buffett is my favorite investor (surprising in this subreddit I know) and I love learning from him. This quote got me to thinking as to how he would be able to achieve that. The point of this post is to share my thoughts and to listen to your ideas in regards to achieving something similar to the above quote. + + +The 1-10 million fund size makes it quite clear that the biggest advantage will come from micro/small cap companies. These companies are typically avoided by smart/big money as they're too small to make a meaningful difference in their performance as their funds are too large which gives way for bigger discounts on the market. Any other ideas? Cheers +Through my years of traditional investments and job security I've got about 600,000 in cash and 400k in a duplex (brings in about 4k a month), paid full in cash. However, I'm still quite young, in my 30s, and want to head into development. Anyone have any suggestions on getting started? The whole, buy tons of duplexes/sfr's and eventually get up to 100k in income is just a slow and daunting task. How do people get mega rich with real estate? +WELCOME BACK TO THE CRYPTO COMBAT CHAMPIONSHIP! The fifth and final round in the openweight mixed martial arts cryptocurrency world championship match is just about to begin. ULTRASAFE, going an impressive 7-0 so far in the tournament, is deep into a brutal war of hellacious combat attrition with the undefeated, undisputed, reigning, MACRO-MARKET (97-0). + +Let’s get back to the action. The two fighters touch gloves, and HERE WE GO! + +MACRO-MARKET PLODS FOREWARD THROWING HEAT! + +ULTRASAFE SLIPS THE RED-CANDLE RIGHT HOOK! DODGES THE BITCOIN DIP HEADKICK! STUFFS THE FUD TAKEDOWN! + +OHH NOO! + +A VICIOUS MACRO-MARKET CROSS HAS LANDED FLUSH ON ULTRASAFE! HES WOBBLED! HE LOOKS HURT! HOW WILL HE RECOVER! + +MACRO-MARKET LOOKS PRIMED FOR THE GROUND-AND-POUND FINISH! + +OH MY GOD! WHO JUST JUMPED INTO THE CAGE?!! WHAT’S THIS?!! + +IS THAT....CHAMP-CHAMP DANIEL CORMIER, RENOWN COMBAT SPORTS LEGEND, HOST, ANALYST, AND COMMENTATOR? WHAT IN THE WORLD IS HE DOING IN THERE! HE’S STILL IN HIS RINGSIDE COMMENTARY SUIT! + +HE’S JUST DOUBLE LEGGED THE MACRO-MARKET!! OH MY GOD WHAT A BRUTAL SLAM! NOW HE’S TAKEN THE BACK! WHAT’S THIS? ULTRASAFE HAS THROWN A VICIOUS HEADKICK TO THE DOWNED MACRO-MARKET? IS THIS PRIDE RULES? WHAT IS HAPPENING? + +LOOKS LIKE CORMIER IS GOING FOR THE REAR NAKED CHOKE....HE’S GOT IT FOLKS, THATS TIGHT! MACRO-MARKET HAS TAPPED! + +ULTRASAFE AND DANIEL CORMIER ARE THE UNDISPUTED CRYPTO COMBAT CHAMPIONSHIP OPENWEIGHT WORLD CHAMPIONS! Is this even allowed? We’ll have to consult the athletic commission, but who cares. LET’S HEAR IT FOR ULTRASAFE! + +Crypto World Title matches aside...UltraSafe is extremely proud to welcome Daniel Cormier onto our team. We are beyond excited for the value that such a legendary athlete can bring to our community! +Lately, I have been thinking about taking personal health insurance instead of relying on my company’s health insurance. So I started doing some research on my own and found some very useful posts on this subreddit and twitter (Links of posts at the end). Now after looking at details of policies I got really confused as almost all the insurance companies offer similar policies and it got difficult to shortlist/reject. Therefore I decided to make a google spreadsheet to compare all of them together for a clear understanding. + +Rightnow, I am looking for a 5L base and 20L super top-up for myself but in future I would like to increase the base cover to 10L and super top-up to 50L. + +Here are my filters for a good policy: + +* No Co-pay +* No room rent limit (Single Private AC room is also fine) +* No Sublimits +* Reset Benefit +* Claims Paid >85% +* Good hospital network around my area + +So, I have looked into 5L,10L base cover and 20/25L Super top-up policies from companies like ICICI Lombard, Max Bupa, Star Health, HDFC Ergo, Manipal Cigna, Religare, New India and Royal Sundaram. + +[Link to the spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KqjRiXiYTBfH-_3fFQ00rwdsmar7i5nJerkEr8As2BM) (Zoom out to get a better view) + +All the premiums in the google sheet are for 25 yrs of age. + +Things covered in google sheet: + +* Features of the policy like Room rent, Co-pay, sublimit, waiting period, etc. +* Statistics of the insurance company like Incurred claim ratio, Claims approved ratio, complaints filed, etc + +&#x200B; + +While all the insurance policies are very similar to each other since they cover basic things like No co-pay, no room rent limit, domiciliary hospitalisation, donor expense, etc there are still few differences between them. + +**ICICI Lombard Complete Health + Health Booster Insurance:** + +* 5L base cover policy has sublimit for common surgeries, No sublimits for 7L and above +* Policies which have OPD+Hospital cash as optional are really expensive, without these the price is fine. +* Pre & Post Hospitalization is valid for only 30 & 60 days, while competitors offer 60 & 90 days +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 88%., which is just average. +* Super top-up policy is really good, I didn't find any problems with it. + +**Max Bupa ReAssure Health + Health Recharge Insurance:** + +* Really solid base as well as super top-up policy and it is cheaper than competitors too, which seems weird. +* Now if you look at their numbers, you find that their Incurred Claim Ratio is only 53% i.e. very low. This means that either premium is very costly or their claims paid ratio is not good. But actually their premiums are cheap and claims paid are 91%(Really Good). And this doesn't make sense. +* So, when I dug a little deeper, I found out that their *claim complaints per 10,000 claims* is 40-50, which is really high. So here, my best guess is that they approve the claim partially to get that counted as claim paid. + +**Star Health Comprehensive + Super Surplus Insurance:** + +* Good base as well as super top-up policy overall, they cover OPD and dental too. But slightly costly. +* Sublimit on some rare surgeries in base cover, which is not really a problem. +* Rooms are capped at Single Private AC room +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 81%, very low IMO. +* They also have very high *claim complaints per 10,000 claims* + +**HDFC Ergo Optima Restore + Medisure Super Top-up Insurance:** + +* Excellent base policy, but slightly costly. +* Super top-up policy max cover is only 20L, whereas their competitors offer upto 100L +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 97%. +* Very good hospital network. + +**Manipal Cigna ProHealth + Super top-up insurance:** + +* Good base policy, has all the necessary features and is cheap as well. +* Super top-up policy max cover is only 30L +* Their Incurred Claim Ratio is only 61% which is low. +* They also have slightly high *claim complaints per 10,000 claims* + +**Religare Care Health + Enhance Insurance:** + +* Good base policy and it is cheap too. +* Super top-up policy max cover is only 30L +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 94%. +* Their Incurred Claim Ratio is only 59% + +**New India Premier Mediclaim + Top-up insurance:** + +* Their 5L base cover policy has room rent cap of 1% +* The 15L base cover policy has all the necessary features, but it is very costly. +* They don't have a super top-up policy, and their top-up policy has max cover of only 22L +* Poor hospital network + +**Royal Sundaram Lifeline Supreme Insurance:** + +* Excellent base policy, and cheapest amongst all of them. +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 95%. +* Couldn't find their super top-up policy online. + +**Go Digit Health + Super top-up Insurance:** + +* Good base policy and it is cheap too. +* Super top-up policy max cover is only 20L, its costly too. +* Their Claims Paid ratio for FY 2019-20 is 83%, Incurred Claim Ratio is only 51% +* 4 yrs waiting period for existing diseases. + +&#x200B; + +After doing all this research, I have shortlisted ICICI Lombard and HDFC Ergo. + +Personally I want to go with HDFC Ergo because of their excellent claims paid ratio even though their premium is slightly higher. But the only issue I have with HDFC Ergo is that their super top-up policy provides max cover of only 20L which is maybe fine for now but won't be sufficient 10 yrs later. + +Now before I make final decisions, I would love to hear about other people’s experiences regarding the claim settlement process of ICICI Lombard and HDFC Ergo. + +&#x200B; + +**Helpful Links:** + +[Twitter Link](https://twitter.com/wiredmau5/status/1313718353370857477)(Really helpful),[ Reddit link 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/g7uc0l/finally_on_a_health_policy_hunt_steps_included/),[ Reddit Link 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/2h3r0a/how_to_buy_a_health_insurance_policy_steps_and/ckp7ie2/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) + +PS: Details of the policy features in spreadsheet are taken from policy wordings and the company's website. Do DM me if there is any error in the data present in the spreadsheet. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Added Go digit Health + Super top-up policy details in the sheet +Sometimes I wonder how day traders do what they do. Thankfully I am in this for the long haul - 10 years plus, so having most investments in red at the moment doesn't worry me too much (ask me again in a year's time). But it still isn't a pleasant feeling knowing you own less than you put in. +**FYI** u/jsmar18 **banned me 20 days ago for nothing and has yet to lift my ban. You're reading my DD from Oct 20th...Check that chart at the bottom :) Want more?** u/Karasuuchiha **banned me from gme also for nothing.. epidemic of bad mods if you ask me. Read my DD and ask yourself "why is that happening?" If jsmar sticky's a comment, know i can't reply and he knows that. I have some screenshots -** [**shorturl.at/ruEJ3**](https://shorturl.at/ruEJ3) **- where did all the DD writers go?** + +# The Everything FTD - is basically what Jim Decosta was saying + +Jim Decosta and Thomas Reilly need to do an AMA in my opinion...the knowledge given would be invaluable + +EDIT: that this practice is so widespread and so bad that all naked shorted/naked sold companies would see these backlogged FTDs come back and squeezes would pop up everywhere....guess what..this year is what he was eluding too. FTDs are the achilles heal of the entire current crooked market structure + +https://preview.redd.it/tehb45q9rmu71.jpg?width=583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=72aa1a7f99525cc0739645dd9cb8d1422b4c182d + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-12-06/s71206-826.htm](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-12-06/s71206-826.htm) + +Overstonk on RegSho list for 500 days consecutive\^ + +https://preview.redd.it/gb23k8ytwmu71.jpg?width=1130&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=974e8f68920a9454ed214f8462ebbfe2ea7b20c5 + +https://preview.redd.it/n3qbvgvarmu71.jpg?width=593&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=660d1054d1f220880e9a958e3b1eb21b1013539c + +MUST READ!!! Jim Decosta letter to SEC chair in 2008 explaining the who, what, when, where, and why of FTDs being hidden using international markets, DTCC, NSCC, the continuous net settlement system helps hide 96% of delivery statuses... 192 million FTDs is so low guys... there were more than that in January alone!!! + +**$GME has had on average about 110 million volume per month for the last 8 years. Every share that was bought and never delivered.... is still an undelivered share. The name of the game is not to buy back in the FTDs, it is only to siphon money from retail investors who thought they were really buying a piece of a company.** + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-428.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-428.pdf) + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-75.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-75.pdf) + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-12-06/s71206-88.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-12-06/s71206-88.pdf) + +# ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +# This document in this link is pictured below: + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-110.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-30-08/s73008-110.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/oeie1olymmu71.jpg?width=668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71cfe763ca7860f36a255c61da3329890d5c0a02 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bf0qi2k0nmu71.jpg?width=665&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c536515c9f7766c8abf1bf3ab16a9bc219ab95a9 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ci7bl9yinmu71.jpg?width=648&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60b56dfb965ca6bf9c56ee73e4edf81881d2c2c1 + +https://preview.redd.it/kad3wct9nmu71.jpg?width=674&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c5b437d830e7290fcb45deaf9ce90a319aba5f9 + +https://preview.redd.it/eje99o54mmu71.jpg?width=637&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=32eaa0977658cfd30c58ee415bfbf94400a23518 + +https://preview.redd.it/zdumg563mmu71.jpg?width=643&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8238904c8ee9563cf70933fa1f507981643d5475 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fuchou5zlmu71.jpg?width=659&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bb81358a1bb47dbb143ef5c472a53a4a46b8cc91 + +https://preview.redd.it/0emfi6yxlmu71.jpg?width=693&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a7028f10dd501cab930fbabd727235022c3ff4c + +https://preview.redd.it/w0g0fc6vlmu71.jpg?width=651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=676ea17f4dad7517f10a7251e991e123442db69c + +**"1. The SEC must incorporate a mandatory pre­borrow on all short sales being executed. The mandatory pre­borrow will reduce significantly fails attributed to both long and short sales and will guarantee settlement where a hard close only guarantees a buy­in will occur.** + +**2. The SEC must modify the rules pertaining to bona­fide market making to limit the persistence of any fail created by the exemption. Bona­Fide market making must define a firm settlement period instead of making it arbitrary. That period should be defined as T+5.** + +**3. The SEC must place hard requirements on the stock lending system to mandate a delivery period on stock recalls. In the event that a long sale is executed and the shares held in that account have been loaned out, the recall and delivery of shares must be completed by T+5. This allows the short seller a few extra days to either borrow shares for delivery of go into the open market and purchase shares under guaranteed delivery.** + +**4. The SEC must draft language that defines the requirements of a buy­in including the definition of buy­in and settlements. Buy­ins must be at guaranteed delivery and not to simply roll fails. Penalties must be identified for those that do not buy in with the intent on meeting guaranteed settlement.** + +**5. Uptick Rule. The SEC must reinstitute a viable uptick rule that restricts all short sales from being executed into the bids. This would include short sales executed by market makers on behalf of bona­fide market making activities.** + +**6. I further recommend that the Division of Enforcement and the Office of Compliance and Inspections pursue detailed investigations into exactly why trading continues to prevail into settlement failures for greater than 17 days (better yet 6 days). The two divisions should work together to identify patterns of potential abuses by individuals or firms including market makers, hedge funds, or other trading parties. It is unclear at this time that this effort has even been conducted to a level adequate to ferret out the fraud.** + +**In the response to the OIG the Division of Enforcement staff cited a lack of resource as cause for not investigating the 5000 complaints received in 2007 relating to naked short selling. Lack of resource is an excuse comprised out of inefficiencies. To date, the SEC Division of Trading and Markets has handled short sale reforms inefficiently and it has drained the staff of opportunity to work on other pressing issues. It is now time to stop this circus and move on. This round of rules must meet the standards of finality and that means meet the standards of success against any type of market we are up against."** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/w01pog75qmu71.jpg?width=651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6efd3a01fd695e597905e2acf2b50b23f73fb76b + +PSA: Only b\*t accounts use the words "cumulative" and "aggregate"...some reddit bots use Eli5(explain like I'm 5) sub reddit responses to make comments on posts. Test one of the b\*t reddits for yourself + +FYI: Just above this last image is a list of suggested changes to the market, what do you think about them? Have any of them been implemented? + +Still working on this carving btw: + +https://preview.redd.it/qm7jek8utmu71.jpg?width=822&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c29197f9ebd03db23a213d07811565b080523cbe + +# + +https://preview.redd.it/i528nop1mqu71.jpg?width=1434&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e381e781edde506eeec7ce17476c1f04a8870ccd + +# ^ Still on track? + +# [https://www.britannica.com/event/Mississippi-Bubble](https://www.britannica.com/event/Mississippi-Bubble) + +\^ where naked selling began I think as well as the South Sea Bubble of 1720 + +# EDIT: 11:35 PM EST 420K Views!!!! It's only fitting that I make this the last update + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/0485sgzl4qu71.jpg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=631f8c183cc118c385f6ee2bc185c37fca6a451c + +&#x200B; + +**It'd sure be nice if we could let the SEC know that we know they know the FTDs are backlogged and waiting to be bought in so we can install a new stock market computer system that won't allow this counterfeiting of shares any longer** + +I can't help but think that this phrase "house of cards" is where u/Atobbit got the title for his DD because he was already thinking about FTDs talking to Susan Trimbath live that one day. It's a shame he made a correction to his DD and someone wrote a scathing post about him and he vanished after that...why would anyone turn their back on Austin like that....he opened the lid to pandora's box. That guy is a national treasure btw + +# #SECknows <--- search that on google + +&#x200B; +I’m just happy with my dividends coming in tomorrow ✅ + +Coming in tomorrow: + +PG +SPHD +SPY +PCEF +RC + +Total per year: 332.73 +Total portfolio: 6500 + +Less then a year personally managing investing. Greatest joy is learning all of the different opportunities to invest in. I’m slow and steady in my life so dividend investing seemed appropriate. + +I have a much larger retirement account that is in aggressive allocation. +[Pharmacy Site](https://costplusdrugs.com/) + +[Full list of medications](https://costplusdrugs.com/medications/) + +[Article](https://fortune.com/2022/01/20/mark-cuban-cost-plus-drugs-online-pharmacy/) + +The entrepreneur–Dallas Mavericks owner–Shark Tank host–crypto enthusiast has launched the Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company, an online pharmacy that promises lower prices on over 100 medications, including ones commonly prescribed for high cholesterol and hypertension. + +To lower costs, Cuban cut out the middleman, setting up his own pharmaceutical wholesaler and negotiating directly with drug manufacturers and pharmacies for rebates and discounts. **It sells the drugs at manufacturers price + a 15% markup to fund the business and an added $3 pharmacist fee. Shipping is $5.** + +Among the discounted drugs is mesalamine, which treats ulcerative colitis. Normally, that retails for $940 per month, which falls as low as $102 per month with vouchers. Cuban Cost Plus will sell it for $32.40 per month. Atorvastatin (a generic version of cholesterol medicine Lipitor) generally sells for $55.08, but will cost $3.60 on Cuban Cost Plus, the company website said. + +The venture will not accept insurance payments at this time, requiring cash, but it claims its prices are still below what patients would pay with insurance at a typical pharmacy. + +**Some of the notable medications the pharmacy offers are:** + +Imatinib (Gleevec) - Cancer drug + +>>Retail price: $2,502.50 per month + +>>Cost Plus price: $17.10 per month + +>>Savings: $2,485.40 per month + + +Abacavir (Epzicom) - HIV + +>>Retail price: $1,096.10 + +>>Cost Plus price: $57.60 + +>>Savings: $1,038.50 +> What is the biggest wealth destroyer when investing? Averaging down or buying more of an asset, be it stock or crypto, as the price keeps going down and hoping that the price bounces to recover losses or make profits faster. Common behaviour among retail investors. +> +>While it is tempting to average down, the odds of this strategy working are significantly low in the long run. All it takes is one large move on the other side for things to go wrong. The right way, for most people, is to not have concentrated positions. +> +>Saying this because of pings from friends asking if they should buy more Bitcoin to average the price, by exiting other assets. I have zero knowledge or exposure to Crypto, but the rules for investing are the same: Reduce % exposure if the risk is high, & don't Average down. 3/3 + +[https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201](https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201) + +I believe that, in the long term investment, if I know that a company is fundamentally great and as long as the reason behind my belief in company holds good, it is better to acquire more shares in the fall. + +I know that main context of his tweet is cryptocurrency, which is highly fluctuating. But, does his theory apply to stock market too? +I'm a top level exec at a company valued in the billions and am responsible for roughly half the business. I am well on my way to fatFIRE after reaching FI a few years ago. My issue is I don't take my job nearly as seriously as I feel I should. After doing the career grind to get here and taking every step very seriously, now there's nowhere else to go. Without that next thing to achieve, I've lost the drive. This results in treating what should be a very serious position too casually. I still like my job, the autonomy and authority is great, board and owners are as good as I could ask for - but I feel like I'm missing something, and maybe because of that I'm the wrong person for the job. + +Wanted to check here: does anyone else have the same issue once you achieved what you thought you wanted? +Ok guys, I've officially capitulated. Apparently I misread my /CL trade I was putting on as only requiring $11,000 to be cash-secured, but that was not the case, it needs $110,000 to be cash-secured. I sold a put at the $115 strike that has exploded in BP. Coupled with some NET cash-secured puts sitting at the $110 strike, I have officially lost 58% of my account today and have bought to close everything and am never trading again, finding this subreddit was one of the worst things that has happened to me, financially. +On Wednesday I was fired from my new job. I left a good paying job with a great schedule to work for a new company and grow my career. I was very candid about my lack of experience during my interview, and they told me that they were excited to train me into the position. + +Less than a month later I was fired for "not living up to expectations". I tried my best and did the job well as far as the GM of the company and the rest of the staff were concerned, but the owner thought otherwise and let me go. + +Now I have about 250 dollars until I get paid next Friday and that will only be for one week of work. I can't go back to my last job because there isn't a spot for me on the schedule anymore. + +I really don't know what to do. I can't summon the will power to look for a new job even though I know I have to, even writing this is taxing. I'm super depressed and now I'm doubting my capabilities as a service industry professional. + +I live by myself with my daughter Saturday through Wednesday, I have 1500 dollars+ worth of bills I have to pay. I filed for unemployment, but who knows how long that will take and how much I'll get from that. + +I could really use some guidance and support right now. What should I do? + + +*UPDATE* + +First I want to say thank you to everyone for the support and kind words. It has activated me and given me the strength to update my resume and send it out to places. + +So far I have applied for one job, and reached out to my last job. They have multiple locations, and my old boss mentioned that he might be able to get me some shifts at a different location. I'm going to finish updating my resume tonight, then go out with some friends and enjoy my weekend/ time off. As long as I'm trying to get back on my feet there's no point in feeling sorry for myself. + +Tomorrow I'm going to spend the day actively looking. I don't want to be unemployed for more than 3 more days. + +Ill let everyone know how it goes in an update. Thanks again everyone! +In casual conversations with people from other countries, it is common to use typical salaries of well-known jobs as a rough indication of the economy in general e.g. "a cashier in Switzerland can make €50,000 a year in Switzerland compared to only €18,000 in Britain" or "a doctor's starting salary in Brazil is less than $1,000 a month." + +This is useful in a casual conversation, because wages are probably the most tangible feature of an economy's strength and every country has cashiers and doctors, but these jobs fall to either extreme of what is "average" in most countries. + +This makes me wonder: if we could only use the salary of one job as a basis for comparison between labour markets, what should that job be, and why does that job have a particular tendency to match a country's median wage? Is it nursing, skilled construction workers, restaurant managers? Is there any job with a salary which falls within 10% or so of a country's median in almost every country in the world? +I read a washington post op/ed saying that Biden's new loan forgiveness plan is regressive and mostly helps higher earning individuals. Is that the case? If it really is a regressive policy, why does it seem that its mostly left leaning progressives that are celebrating it? +G’day fuckers. I hope life is good, and your portfolio is green. Things with me are fine. I had some nandos the other day and couldn’t be happier. + +If you invest in stocks like you’re down at the pokies, then no need to read this post. I have researched this because I want apes and investors alike to understand more about DW8. I have concern that they are hugely overpriced, and almost every post on DW8 is made by people who have invested, so I thought I'd have a look through the financials and see what it's all about. + +TL;DR DW8 is Hugely Overpriced + +**Preface** + +I understand that everyone on r/ASX_Bets is entitled to sharing their own dumb, ape opinions, as well listening to those dumb opinions. Some of those opinions may even be smart (see: Gamestop). Further, apes can make money off anything. I think you could day trade DW8 and have success. I think that the share price could go up despite everything I am going to stay, and I am also happy for anyone that benefits from the rise. Good for you. Fuck you. But, before we start dreaming of the moon, I want to share some thoughts on why this company probably won’t make it to the moon, but also won’t come crashing down to the ground. It is just a normal business that’s masquerading as a revolution, and my guess is it will either be a minor success, or it will die a quiet, underwhelming death. + +This post is written to the apes thinking about getting in on the stock. Understand that a lot of the apes who are telling you to buy the stock have a vested interest. An ape should always be wary when someone with a vested interest (see car salesmen / real estate agent) tries to tell you something is a good buy. ASX\_Bets and the original Wall Street Bets are places where people can misrepresent information to sway you to buy. + +Also, I welcome any discussion or points you may disagree with. There is every chance I or my research is wrong. I am not a financial advisor, and this research is general in nature. + +Anyway, enough humanism. + +**My Position** + +I have no vested interest in DW8. + +**My Background** + +I have worked for listed companies, and have experience in logistics, storage, wine, consumable goods, and food. + +**Overview of the DW8 Business** + +“What this business is all about, is really trying to bring the supply chain kicking and dragging into the 21st century with technology and releasing a whole lot of value wasted in inefficiency.” This quote is from Dean Taylor, CEO of DW8, [in an interview on the ASX Investor channel on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeoC_AMgFjo), dated April 11. + +Taylor continues, “It’s a classic disruptor strategy servicing part of the market that no one wanted to touch… Logistics is an unnecessary evil – it’s not a sexy business, not many people like to get involved or invest in it, and the margins aren’t great. So that’s where we’ve started.” + +**A Quick look at their financials** + +[*I am referencing their most recent quarterly results ending 31 March 2021.*](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02367343-6A1029878?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4) + +*Revenue and Burn* + +In the 9 months to date, they have had $1,601,636 in revenue, and amongst other items, spent $1,998,916 on product manufacturing and operating costs, $223,223 on marketing and advertising, $1,440,867 on staff, and $1,433,328 on administration. At the end of the 9 months to date, they burnt $3,851,581. + +*Cash in the bank* + +They completed a raise of $6,000,000 in the first half of the year, alongside some other share sales leading to $8,371,786 in the bank at 31 March 2021. + +*Time until they implode* + +If they continue to burn at their most recent quarterly rate ($1,590,733) then they have 5 quarters at the same trajectory until they run out of money. Of course, they can raise more capital (and they would not be the only business in the world to be losing money in the hope of growing a big business). + +*Market Cap* + +They currently have a SP of $0.091 across their 1.7b shares on issue, giving a market cap of $155,000,000. + +**Five problems I have with DW8** + +I will start with Dean’s comments on the industry, and then take some time to work through issues with their model, and their financials. + +**1.** **In his interview, Taylor says that no one invests in the supply chain because margins are thin. So why is he?** + +His interview is rocky. He starts out by saying logistics is an unnecessary evil. But anyone who has bought anything knows that logistics is essential, its just how the world works. Logistics is what gets things to consumers. Without logistics, be it a LINFOX truck, or a donkey in Bethlehem 2000 years ago, no one is eating food. Logistics is what gets your wife to her boyfriend’s house. It’s a great thing. If you are considering investing, know that logistics is a hot space, and there's many people playing in it. + +Further, he contradicts himself, in his proposition he says DW8 will release a whole lot of value in the supply chain, while also saying that not many people like to invest in supply chain because the margins are not great. + +So, which is it? + +**2.** **He claims to be servicing part of the market that no one wants to touch, but there’s a lot of people in the logistics space** + +There are a lot of players in the third party logistics space (3PL), even in wine. There is BAM logistics ([https://bamwine.com.au/#services](https://bamwine.com.au/#services)) who have been in operation since 1987, and already have their own warehouses across the eastern seaboard. There’s Drinks Guide, who do need a new website ([https://www.drinksguide.com.au](https://www.drinksguide.com.au/)) and offer a database of beverage brands and suppliers. There’s all of the logistics companies that already make the deliveries to the supermarkets all around the country. + +To say that people are not looking at the supply chain is just not true. + +**3.** **The most quoted ‘good news’ on this subreddit (uptake in cases shipped) is inorganic and not a proof of growth at all** + +The metric thrown around most commonly on DW8s growth in r/ASX_Bets, is the uptake in cases shipped, highlighting the big growth in Dec 2020 as validation of their model. A lot of people hang their hat on this to validate the growth of their DW8 business model, but its clear that this growth came from the acquisition of Wine Delivery Australia. + +[November 2020 announcement of the acquisition of Wine Delivery Australia](https://preview.redd.it/mjxoleou7c571.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=30f3a0d11f12dbf4bd4700ef75ef023d119e446f) + +We do not have access to Wine Delivery Australia’s accounts, there is every chance that their sales are declining from before they were acquired, and this possible when you factor in COVID struggles. + +[The Dec 2020 Jump is attributable to the acquisition of Wine Delivery Australia](https://preview.redd.it/s6zmgmrx7c571.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=541a50fa3e80f7d8ad88a03bfb545616b2cad5db) + +**4.** **Revenue (in isolation) is a bad metric for judging the success of a platform business.** + +A company that operates a platform, like Amazon or eBay, or even a payment solution like APT or Z1P, will count the sale of any good on their platform as revenue even if they make a tiny margin on it – and even if they lose money on it, so don’t trust it as an indicator of the success of the business. + +For example: + +Say I run a company called Stop Your Wine-ing, it’s a wine platform where people order wine that I have in my warehouse. Assume the following scenarios: + +Scenario 1: I buy a case of wine for $50, and sell it for $100 + +Scenario 2: I buy a case of wine for $100, and sell it for $100 + +Scenario 3: I buy a case of wine for $120, and sell it for $100 + +In each of these scenarios, though my gross profit is different in each case ($50 in scenario 1, $0 in scenario 2 and I lose $20 in scenario three), my revenue is all the same. It is very easy to use revenue to mislead performance. + +Don’t just point to a revenue number and think a business is doing well, even if it’s going up, because they could even be selling wine at a loss just to make the revenue number look more attractive. Revenue needs to be considered alongside expenses. + +**5.** **Their cases shipped, compared to their revenue, looks a bit… sad?** + +A case of wine refers to a box of 12 bottles. Let’s say the average price of a bottle of wine is $10. The total value of the case is $120. That gives an approximate revenue across 25,000 cases of $3,000,000. + +But the revenue line quoted in their quarterly announcement is not close to this. Their revenue for the quarter up to March ’21 was $630,000, but their graph on shipped cases shows 16,000 in Jan, 21,000 in Feb and 25,000 in March, totalling 62,000 cases. If a case of wine has 12 bottles, that is 744,000 bottles of wine, for a revenue of $630,000. An average bottle cost of only $0.85. + +In his interview on YouTube, Taylor says DW8 makes 10% margin on total revenue, that’s $63,000 in gross profit (before factoring in employment costs, warehouse costs and insurance). Is a business that makes $63,000 a quarter, when they burnt a further $1.5m in the same quarter, worth their current market cap of $155,000,000? + +If anything, it might be the case that Wine Delivery Australia do not count revenue on product sales through their platform and only receive money for providing a logistics service. But this just shows again how questionable a metric shipped cases are. + +**Some further thoughts...** + +*The Alpha in the wine world is the seller* + +With 2,500 wineries across Australia, finding wine to buy is not hard. The real challenge is being the person who can sell the wine. The team at [Vinomofo](https://www.vinomofo.com) is a great example of people who are great sellers. They make wine fun, they have an ability to sell product regardless of vineyard, and they have a great reputation for being a company that sells good wine with a generous returns policy if you aren’t happy. + +*Being an Amazon or Ebay Partner…* + +… is something any winery could do. It’s not special. This is not to say DW8 can’t sell wine on Amazon profitably, but making an announcement about this is just PR to pump the stock. Remember, be afraid of someone with a vested interest trying to sell you something. + +**Conclusion** + +DW8 are losing money, in a market that is ultra-competitive, in an industry that has tight margins, and are selling an investor story that they’re a lot better than they are. Sure, DW8 could live to be a perfectly fine business, and I wish them well, but is the valuation of $155m worthy? I wouldn’t invest even If the market cap was a quarter of its current amount. +I am a recovering ape and very new to thoughtful investing vs yoloing meme stocks, so bare with me: + +So I am now "working the wheel" and selling my CSPs and CCs. + +I see the rule of thumb come up again and again that 30-45 DTE is where a lot of you like to sell options, but why not weeklies? + +Weeklies pay a lower premium, sure, but the premium on six weeklies would beat one 45 day option, right? Plus you would have the flexibility to adjust week to week on your strike price. + +What am I missing here? +First I will start by saying that I live in the U.S. Over the course of a few months I have made over 182 trades between crypto currencies on pancake swap. I think I started with 600$, I had it all the way up to 9000 at one point but I ended up with about 3500 after I stopped and realized my mistake. None of it has been converted to fiat. How do I even begin to start filing taxes on this. I typed my wallet address on bsc scan and I don’t really know how to read it. Is there a software out there that can do this for me. I also don’t understand how you can be taxed on this when it hasn’t even been converted into fiat. Like what if you pay taxes on it and then the price drops dramatically? All of these trades were done with “shit coins.” Coins that have extremely low market caps and are usually trading for about .00000001 to the dollar. Safemoon type coins. Most crypto tax softwares don’t have access to the market data of these coins since they are just so unknown. +# 0. Preface + +I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative. + +Macro economy posts! Horray! When ever you read these posts discussing the market potentially crashing - yes - that is relevant to $GME. Quite a lot, actually. Don't get hung up on other catalysts, because the main catalyst has already reaching a boiling point before our eyes. I think there are two main "catalysts" here: + +1. The markets boil up and crash, leading to mass defaults all around. +2. GameStop creates an NFT dividend like Overstock did to nuke their shorts. + +When shit hits the fan in the markets, that means entities can default. When entities default, especially banks, that means that their overleveraged borrowers (Short Hedge Funds) can go bust. This then, eventually, leads to them covering their short positions. And we know that with the DTC, ICC, OCC, NYSE, NSCC, FICC all pumping rules that were drafted up as early as 2017, they knew things were going to crash sooner or later. + +[Give A Mouse? Give An Ape?](https://preview.redd.it/3jg9qw3wdw771.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=7107939a67837a43d9267f26b52185fae56bf0d2) + +# 1. Mondays With Significant Market Turbulence; Some Happen The Week Of Quarter Ends + +We're coming up on Monday, June 28th. + +Pretty big day in my eyes. Don't freak out just yet though, I'm just posting my observations and it's up to you to judge for yourself on what could be coming. + +It's a big day especially due to how turbulent the entire market has been since the start of April (hello Reverse Repo blowup) which is unusual. Why is it a big day? Well... + +Per [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday) there are a few significant drops in the stock market (or just market turbulence) on **Mondays**: + +* 28 October 1929 – Stock markets in the United States began to crash as part of the Wall Street Crash of 1929. +* 19 October 1987 – Black Monday (1987) Stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. +* **29 September 2008** – **Great Recession**. **Following the bursting of the** **Real estate bubble** **and the** **Financial crisis of 2007–08**, stock markets worldwide crashed, leading to the **Great Recession**. +* 8 August 2011 - Black Monday (2011): A stock market crash from a credit rate downgrade of the United States' debt. +* 24 August 2015 – 2015 Chinese stock market crash. The SSE Composite Index declined by 8.45%. +* **16 September 2019** – The Federal Reserve begins intervening in the repo market five months before the start of the 2020 stock market crash after the overnight lending rate spiked above 8%. +* **9 March 2020** \- Part of the 2020 stock market crash, the worst day for stock market losses since the Great Recession, fueled by investor panic over the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. +* **16 March 2020** \- Larger falls than the previous week's fall during the 2020 stock market crash. + +I've highlighted a few of the above dates which had market turbulence: + +* 29 September 2008 +* 16 September 2019 \[This corresponded with Fed QT. There was turbulence in the repo market not the stock market. Quick action by the Fed most likely saved the stock market from tumbling\] +* 9 March 2020 +* 16 March 2020 + +Something interesting about these highlighted dates is they all occurred during the month of a quarter end. + +What's even more curious, is that the **significant pulldown** **of 2008 started the week OF the Quarter End. The crash started Monday, September 29th, 2008. The Quarter End was September 30th, 2008.** + +Side note: Did you know that the [dot-com bubble also burst](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble) in the month of a quarter end, March of 2000? + +Check out what happened to DJI on and after September 29th, 2008: + +[$DJI Behavior On and After \\"Black Monday\\" Event of September 29, 2008](https://preview.redd.it/l5uo46gafw771.png?width=1527&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd04baa89fee143d5f1e5922170367bc7111f913) + +And you're probably wondering, "what the hell is a quarter end"? The quarter end is a **specific date** spanning a time period of a Fiscal Quarter, where the year is split into four separate "quarters". It's a day where there is significant strain on the system due to the under workings of the market and the necessity to pump balance sheets. + +[https:\/\/investinganswers.com\/dictionary\/q\/quarter-q1-q2-q3-q4](https://preview.redd.it/9apb10lefw771.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e049659e68cc0857b99383c2858fb10e9433da3) + +[https:\/\/investinganswers.com\/dictionary\/q\/quarter-q1-q2-q3-q4](https://preview.redd.it/nqbh45qffw771.png?width=481&format=png&auto=webp&s=21c399021d67abd67091dca2612a4703f99779a0) + +As the markets enter and live within the quarters, things might not be too strenuous or volatile but rather stable. As the markets approach the date of the quarter end, and the quarter end itself, **much** more turbulence can be expected. Especially within the repo markets for the sake of pumping balance sheets. + +# 2. Expect RRP To Shoot Up Significantly More By Q2 End On June 30th + +There's a big problem in the reverse repo market. And I'm kind of beating the dead horse here by bringing it up again. Not just because it's relevant to the topic, but there's still misconceptions on why RRP blowing up is a big problem: + +1. The RRP has been **pretty mellow for the past couple of years with little borrowing**. The only two recent blow-ups have been **March of 2020 when the markets were tumbling due to COVID** and **the entirety of Q2 2021 following the** [expiration of SLR protections](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/19/the-fed-will-not-extend-a-pandemic-crisis-rule-that-had-allowed-banks-to-relax-capital-levels.html)**.** +2. The RRP has been blowing up **throughout the entire quarter** rather than at the quarter end. This is unusual behavior. There should not be this much strain on the markets when not even close to the quarter-end dates. +3. COVID caused a surge of bank deposits on both the bank and Fed's balance sheets. Now the banks are swimming in liquidity and will need many more treasuries to balance out their sheets. +4. **There is most likely a T-bill shortage** due to over a decade of QE [which sucks $120 billion of treasuries out of the market each month](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) and the [US Treasury spending directly out of the TGA (Treasury General Account)](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury-liquidity-explainer/explainer-u-s-treasurys-cash-drawdown-and-why-markets-care-idUSKBN2AM26A) which causes the Fed's balance sheet to require **more** treasuries. As of May 26th, the US Treasury still planned on spending an additional $279 billion by June 30th. This will cause more strain on the treasury shortage as approaching Q2 end. + +[https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2021\/05\/27\/fed-drains-485-billion-in-liquidity-from-market-via-reverse-repos-undoing-4-months-of-qe-even-as-qe-continues-total-assets-near-8-trillion\/](https://preview.redd.it/4q1z56q0ew771.png?width=695&format=png&auto=webp&s=c65ca7fe7f5a0618ee22e340799366061721e4d5) + +[https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2021\/05\/27\/fed-drains-485-billion-in-liquidity-from-market-via-reverse-repos-undoing-4-months-of-qe-even-as-qe-continues-total-assets-near-8-trillion\/](https://preview.redd.it/rvt3devwhw771.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=02481c210ea6a8963a8d7ae7bc64e29cd19751ce) + +[https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2021\/05\/27\/fed-drains-485-billion-in-liquidity-from-market-via-reverse-repos-undoing-4-months-of-qe-even-as-qe-continues-total-assets-near-8-trillion\/](https://preview.redd.it/tlkggqo5iw771.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7b42fc706a0f6756cb9509b0fa7b208039fdfb0) + +[https:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2021\/05\/27\/fed-drains-485-billion-in-liquidity-from-market-via-reverse-repos-undoing-4-months-of-qe-even-as-qe-continues-total-assets-near-8-trillion\/](https://preview.redd.it/3nvf9ez2gw771.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fc261bdc103428665e432e1d887bdcafb312c18) + +Number 2 is one of the greatest warning signs. That the RRP has been **blowing up since the start of Q2**. It historically has not done that the past few years, and this shows there has been strain on the system since the start of the quarter. **There has been strain on the system since ENTERING Q2 and it isn't even the end of the quarter yet, at which there is even MORE strain on the system.** + +The RRP market is historically squeezed upward upon these quarter-end dates almost 100% of the time going all the way back to 2014. The Quarter Ends tend to push the cumulative RRP amount up 2-3x its current amount. Notice the spikes of RRP between 2014 and 2018: + +[RRP Movements Relative to Quarter Ends 2014-2018](https://preview.redd.it/9a407hqzbw771.png?width=1461&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c8d3c73cee578ebccfe246cf1fc19407ff6c386) + +Now check out how there hasn't been strain on the RRP for a long time until March 2020 (COVID crash, **end of Q1**) and then **the start of 2021 Q2.** The system has been quite mellow for some time until COVID dumped in tons and tons of liquidity, amplifying the issue of the treasury shortage with way too much liquidity chasing after it: + +[RRP Strain On Markets 2018 to 2021; Insignificant Movements Until March 2020 \(COVID\) and Q2 of 2021](https://preview.redd.it/5zvn93c1cw771.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=94882cf5fc78d01ea93ebced4c1921d9581660cb) + +The latest numbers of RRP are $770 Billion as of June 25th. If the historical strain continues where it shoots 2-3x the current amounts, we could see >=$1.5 Trillion worth of treasuries borrowed in RRP. Maybe it will be even worse than a simple 2-3x. It's difficult to tell if the Fed can handle it since there is [evidence they are already trying to hide the t-bill shortage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o4rfnu/the_fed_is_pinned_into_a_corner_from_the_2008/): + +[RRP Current Levels](https://preview.redd.it/5s6jpod4cw771.png?width=1455&format=png&auto=webp&s=239ce9264b3a77ecd2b040e84c39b67d2b1132ba) + +The markets can hit a situation where there is simply not enough treasuries to balance the books of those who need them. Which leads to defaults, which can eventually lead to SHFs defaulting, the auctioning of assets through the DTC, ICC, OCC, and then covering of short positions. + +# 3. $DJI Did A Weird "Recovery" Week Just Like March of 2020 Prior To Its Monday Crash + +There's something interesting I noticed looking back at **March 9th, 2020** and **March 16th, 2020** as identified in the list of "Black Mondays" with significant market turbulence. + +The week of February 24th, 2020, $DJI began to tumble. + +Then, the week of March 2nd, $DJI began to do a recovery. Almost like a "last gasp for air". + +Until the following Monday, March 9th, 2020, things began to fall off a cliff, which continued into the week of March 16th. + +From February 24th, 2020 to its bottom on March 23rd, 2020, the $DJI had lost more than 30% of value. This was a total of 20 trading days. + +The first [$2.2 Trillion Stimulus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CARES_Act) was passed and signed into law on March 27th, 2020. The markets began to recover in anticipation of this - but this started just one of many stimulus bills to be added to the pile of liquidity that's now chasing the short treasury supply. + +[$DJI Behavior As Approaching Q1 End of 2020 In Response To COVID](https://preview.redd.it/vltkdqi8bw771.png?width=1531&format=png&auto=webp&s=e71921e3bd1158c8abdf3633d5c7514eb78cf333) + +Now check out what $DJI has done since the week of June 7th, 2021. + +The week of June 7th, 2021, $DJI began to tumble. + +It continued to pull down, much more, the week of June 14th, 2021. + +Then, the week of June 21st, 2021, $DJI began to recover. + +It's also worth noting that during this time, $DJI had wiped out the entire gains of the quarter at its low point on June 18th: + +[$DJI Behavior As Approaching Q2 End of 2021](https://preview.redd.it/ij4i6zifaw771.png?width=1532&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca2eeb4a1e2543144567d5f1cda0c6aff3f9cc36) + +There is the potential for things to get real turbulent, real fast. But of course don't expect anything. This does not necessarily mean anything significant will happen to either GME or the markets tomorrow/next week. These are just my observations. + +Quarter end is upon the financial markets and there are only **three days until Q2 end**. Collateral is needed to pump balance sheets, which there is a short supply of. Good luck banks. Good luck money-market funds. Good luck to the Fed. + +Fasten your seatbelts. + +[https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=RLwaM-tTiXo](https://preview.redd.it/5agdc97brw771.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=adc91eec48b0898f4458102b05fbd9b426129b9c) +[Investopedia defines passive investing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/passiveinvesting.asp) as a buy-and-hold strategy with minimum transactions. [Kuvera uses similar definition as well](https://kuvera.in/blog/what-is-passive-or-index-investing/). + +Investing in Index-linked assets (ETFs or Index funds) can help you reach that "passive investing" zenith, but there's more than that to passive investing than just investing in a Nifty or S&P 500 index fund. + +Index is an _ever-green_ asset, you can count on it to not under-perform the market over long periods of time, by definition. It helps you achieve passive investing. But if you try to "time the market" with your index fund / ETF, then even if you're investing in the index, it's not a passive strategy. + +In this write-up, we'd focus primarily on index investing. + +--- + +**Wait, yet another index vs active thread??!** + +No, this won't be one of those threads where someone posts a link to SPIVA report or lists CAGR of various bluechip funds vs UTI Nifty Index Direct Growth over 1Y / 3Y / 5Y / 7Y / 10Y period. And then claims only x% of funds has beaten the index. + +This isn't how people invest, fund's CAGR aren't investor returns. + +Rather, we'd look at some real world scenarios that closely mimics how people actually invest. + +--- + +**So how do real people invest in the real world?** + +Imagine being someone who wants to start investing in equity. You'd probably ask friends / relatives / LIC uncle, or sign up on one of those hundreds of platforms, or might as well google "top mutual funds" / "top ELSS funds" / "5 star funds". + +After some googling, YouTubing, and asking around (offline & online), you'd settle on 3-4 funds. + +And that's the part I want to focus on: where _you'd inevitably pick more than one fund_. + +Even if one or two of them indeed continue to be great, overall your portfolio would achieve high correlation with an index, and more likely to underperform it. + +And over time, as you'd review your portfolio, lose faith in some of the picks, you'd add new funds, maybe sell units in a fund or two. After 5-6 years, you'd have a hodgepodge portfolio of bluechip / emerging bluechip / multi-cap / smol-cap / mid-cap / contra / value / global / quant / PE / opportunity funds and other exotic products. What are the odds this entire portfolio does better than broader market? + +--- + +**Come on, how can you possibly know that? This is just guesswork!** + +That was my intuition, but as we get more and more people on the subreddit / discord share their portfolio details for review, I see it happening for real. + +Just 2 days ago, someone in our Discord asked to review their portfolio. They've been investing for ~3 years, presently ramped up and have been investing ~1.4L / month. These are the funds they've been investing in: + +- Mirae Large Cap +- PPLTE +- Axis Small-cap +- Mirae Emerging Bluechip +- Motilal Oswal S&P 500 + +Just from looking at these, one would think given how each of these have performed over last ~3 years or so, it'd easily beat a single Nifty Index fund portfolio. + +Let's clearly define a single Nifty Index fund portfolio: it's a _what if_, simulated portfolio, where all transactions on given date & amount are copied into a single index fund: UTI Nifty Index Direct Growth. I'm **NOT** comparing the return of actual portfolio, against CAGR of this fund. + +I was surprised that the [5-fund portfolio](https://imgur.com/OmPj99x) was actually behind the [1-fund portfolio](https://imgur.com/Ai7IrYh). + +In other words, if OP had just picked a single index fund and called it a day, 3 years ago, things would've turned out better, quantifiably. [Here's the Discord discussion thread](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/547078913751515147/789530982666862642) + +This is only one such case. I've reviewed umpteen portfolios just like that in recent times, and yet to come across a single one that has done better than a 1-fund Index-based portfolio. + +I picked this one, because it looked promising based on the fund picks, that OP had somehow stumbled upon and got lucky in picking funds that have performed well (often better than Nifty TRI) _after_ picking those. And still, as a portfolio, it cannot stand up to gains from a single Nifty index fund portfolio. + +[Here's another example](https://discord.com/channels/546638391127572500/547078913751515147/784335339451187230). + +Another anecdote from a friend who started investing in June: Invested ~3.4L across ICICI Bluechip, Mirae Large Cap, Mirae Emerging Bluechip, SBI Small Cap, Axis Small Cap etc.: even with an XIRR of ~83% p.a. (markets fool new comers very easily), it's underperforming a 1-fund Index portfolio by ~8k (UTI Nifty Index fund with those exact transactions would've had a 87% p.a. XIRR). + +There are many more stories similar to this, but the broader point stands. + +--- + +**Don't even know where to begin, with everything that's wrong with this analysis!** + +You're right, I hear you. Cannot just check a comparison on a particular date, and conclude anything from that. If I check 6 months later, or 6 months ago; it could just as well be opposite. The multi-fund portfolio can be ahead of the single Nifty index fund portfolio. + +However, that wasn't the point I wanted to make. + +Look at the broader idea: _Most equity funds perform in-line with Indian equity benchmark_. + +Even if you pick US equity fund that has lower correlation, and mimic Nifty; for first few years of your investments, that won't be much _different_ at portfolio level, in absolute terms. + +By _different_, I mean your portfolio at times, can be ahead of the 1-fund Index portfolio, or behind; but the difference would be quite small. Small enough, that there's little to no downside to picking a single index fund and continue with that for few years. + +I'm focused on _price of being wrong_ in your picks, with something akin to _linear approximation_ + +--- + +**Returns aren't everything. What about risk-adjusted return, average volatility, drawdowns etc.?** + +I assure you, none of these investors know or had any of these in mind when they picked multiple funds to start their equity journey with. + +They wanted returns, they wanted their corpus to grow. While these are novel goals to have, these portfolios were not creates or designed with any of that mind. + +That's called _shifting the goalpost_. + +Reducing drawdown for someone who has been investing in equity for long term, and doesn't have any need for that money any time soon, makes no sense. It's probably a "good to have", not a "must have". + +It's of more value they build and take their corpus to a level where these become important enough to their portfolio, in absolute terms. + +--- + +**Wouldn't that be too volatile? A single equity fund. I don't feel comfortable with this.** + +All equity funds invest in markets, all equity funds are volatile. Markets are always volatile. You'll gradually get used to it, as you start seeing big crashes & red in your portfolio. + +As for single equity fund, if you pick a single active fund, I'd be worried. It's possible it turns in to a dud a la HDFC Equity or DSP Tax Saver, while other funds zoom up. + +What are the odds of that happening with an Index fund? Is it possible for most active funds to suddenly start doing lot better and sustain that for some time, while index fund gets left out in the dust? + +--- + +**What are you saying?! No Asset-allocation, no Debt / Gold in portfolio? This is just your recency bias talking, because equity markets have been doing well** + +Asset-allocation is important, but once your portfolio reaches certain level. + +A fun off-topic Physics fact: we don't know if Newton's law of gravitation is correct at smaller scales, because it's so small that even the best modern tools in labs cannot discern between output predicted by Newton's mathy inverse-square formula, and measured values. [Minute-physics has a video explaining this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTMELHUAzSM). + +When you're just starting out your investments, investing 20-30k / month in SIP, you've almost no corpus, compared to where you could be 20-25 years down the road. + +Your target should be to get through corpus milestones. The first 1L, then first 5L, first 10L, first 50L etc. Then review once you reach, say, 1 Cr. + +You could even have thumb-rules, for example not having debt in long term portfolio until your long term corpus reaches, say, 5x your annual salary. + +If you've 5Cr. portfolio, you could go up or down few lakhs everyday, because of day to day market volatility. At that scale, some Debt / other asset-class diversification helps. Certainly won't want to lose 1 Cr. in a week's correction. + +If your portfolio is 50k, it'd be cute to attempt an asset allocation rebalancing exercise. + +All I'm saying is, if you've size-able emergency corpus, decent fixed income allocation to take care of short term needs; you can start your long term portfolio with a single Nifty / Nifty 100 / Nifty 500 index fund or ETF. + +First few years should be focused on saving & "setting aside" as much as you can in that long term portfolio. + +--- + +**Wow you make it sound so easy. If it's so easy and settled, why are people discussing debating / analyzing equity investments all the time?** + +I didn't say it's easy. If anything, it's hardest of all to not give in to your "intuition" / "feeling" / gut based rationalization. + +When someone picks 5 funds to invest in, it's not because they've done rigorous analysis and found through backtesting that this particular 5 funds / underlying assets of these 5 funds have done better across market cycles. + +No. + +They do it, because it gives them comfort that _if some of these don't work out, at least one of the other ones would_. Except, that might work in case of stocks (you pick 10 stocks, hoping at least one of these turn out to be next HDFC / RIL, even if other 9 goes burst). + +This is primitive thinking, and given how MFs work under the hood, it doesn't work that way at all. + +Hardest thing of all, is to realize your own biases: the decisions you make where you're in control. + +No one likes to confront their own biases, because unintuitive results can be hard to swallow. + +If someone's picking a 5-6 fund set, they should compare it against various set of simulated portfolios, from time to time. + +If someone's selling when markets turn high, and buying more when markets correct a bit, they should compare with a portfolio where those transactions driven by human decision making, didn't exist. + +--- + +**Ok, this was very long and all, why not share a TL;DR?** + +**TL;DR**: Passive investing is about reducing decisions you make. Decisions are sources of underperformance/ outperformance; but most often, they end up being sources of underperformance. + +Always measure your portfolio against a passive portfolio, it may reveal if you're a good or a bad decision maker. + + **#What's New?** + +It's official $Ping will be listed on [Gate.io](https://gate.io/), the 10th biggest exchange in the world by volume on the 14th of September. +Enhanced 180k marketing budget in collaboration with [Gate.io](https://Gate.io) is starting tomorrow. +[https://twitter.com/SonarToken/status/1437329963443654662](https://twitter.com/SonarToken/status/1437329963443654662) + +6-person strong development team hired for the development of the platform in addition to a new web developer. + +Sonar also started the works on a new press, hiring and blockchain education/academy page. + +More big announcements in the following weeks. + +**#What is Sonar?** + +The Sonar Platform is a multi-chain analytical tool, which presents its users with an interface that tracks social network/influencer trends, vets contract code, price charts, creates price action alerts, executes orders, as well as feature other innovative and unique solutions, including the implementation of artificial intelligence for investments. + +The Sonar Platform intends to serve as a crypto analysis one-stop-shop and provides users with all the necessary tools and information need to make smart investment choices, increase profitable trading and reduce the likelihood of traders falling for rugpulls and honeypots. + +Sonar $PING had a successful TechRate Audit and is listed on CMC, CG and Blockfolio. The Core Team is fully doxed, KYC’d have based the entire business around full transparency. The Q3 roadmap has been completed 2 months ahead of time and Q4 targets are already in development. + +SONAR has just announced the listing on GAte.io that would allow users to purchase their native token $PING with fiat. This will facilitate the purchasing of the native PING token to new and existing users alike and will also open the door to 500K+ existing Indacoin users to the possibility of joining the Sonar family. + +**#Sneak Peek** + +Another collaboration is in the works between Sonar and a Multi Billion Dollar Company. This tech collaboration will ensure Sonar has all the resources for years to come, and will cement Sonar as a leading company in this space - Stay Tuned! + +Some major marketing collaborations are in the work which soon will be announced, be prepared to be mind blown! + +**#What's in progress:** + +🔥 Incorporation in process +📣 More big announcements coming this month +⭐️ Eth-bridge this month +📊 Charting tool in 1 months +🔓 Sonar Wallet in 1.5 months +📰 New press page + ⚒ Hiring page +📚 Blockchain Academy + +**#What's been done:** + +✅ Indacoin partnership (enabling creditcard purchases) +✅ Listing on [Gate.io](https://Gate.io) (tomorrow) +✅ Enhanced marketing strategy initiated +✅ Doxxed Core Team +✅ Real Use Case (Utility Token) +✅ Clear Roadmap and Whitepaper on website +✅ Techrate audit complete +✅ Long term partnership with CryptoMonks, Cryptoken Media, Bart Baker and more coming +✅ Listed on CMC +✅ Listed on CG +✅ Doxxed Founders Team +✅ Real Use Case (Utility alt coin) +✅ Q3 Roadmap complete in 1 month + +**Transaction taxes:** + +💰 6% tax to Liquidity Pool to create a stable price floor +🤑 2% tax to Redistribution +👨‍🔬 1% tax to Sonar Innovation Lab Wallet +👨‍💻 1% tax to Sonar Marketing and Development Wallet + +**Socials:** + +**✉️ Tele**gram: [https://www.t.me/sonar\_official](https://www.t.me/sonar_official) +📷Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/sonar\_token/](https://www.instagram.com/sonar_token/) +🐦Twitter: [https://twitter.com/SonarToken](https://twitter.com/SonarToken) +⭕️Reddit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sonarplatform](https://www.reddit.com/r/sonarplatform) +🎮Discord: [https://www.discord.gg/7kuNHxZeCP](https://www.discord.gg/7kuNHxZeCP) +🎥Tiktok: [https://www.vt.tiktok.com/ZSJ9oBTDo/](https://www.vt.tiktok.com/ZSJ9oBTDo/) +📽Youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCixkuolcOuQdEnn80E-tyew](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCixkuolcOuQdEnn80E-tyew) +👫Facebook: [https://www.facebook.com/Sonar-Token-107371881570425](https://www.facebook.com/Sonar-Token-107371881570425) +🌐 Website: [https://www.sonarplatform.io](https://www.sonarplatform.io/) +First of all, I’d like to start off by stating this post is completely nonpartisan. GME is not a political debate, it’s a class war. + +Okay, let me ask you guys this — how many of you knew that when the pandemic began, the FED pumped $3 trillion dollars into the markets? I watch the news in the background all day, every day, and I didn’t know at the time when the injections were happening. This news would have been of great interest to me since I day trade, so it would not be something that I wasn’t paying attention to. I just simply wasn’t looking in the right places. + +You may not have been aware of the pump either because they were discreet. MSM that isn't financial news never mentioned them. And we were even misled about it. How many times did you hear Trump brag that markets being at an all-time high? This literally had nothing to do with how well the economy was doing. Or the markets for that matter. The record high is completely artificial. + +This isn’t a political issue; this is a class issue. What should infuriate you most is that people were literally starving, unable to pay their rent, and job losses were reaching record highs, while our government withheld aid to desperate Americans, and even took a vacation in the middle of their debate about it. But the Federal Reserve wasted no time (in March 2020) spending trillions of dollars bailing out banks. Again. + +It was not to protect your retirement accounts. They claimed there was not enough liquidity in the markets, and Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell stated he will do whatever it takes to prevent another Great Depression. But their actions are what is about to cause the next potential Great Depression. + +Not only was $3 trillion pumped into the market, but the Federal Reserve also lent an additional $1 trillion a day to large banks for 14-days. None of that was taxpayer money, by the way. The FED was just printing money. They loaned TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to big banks, while the U.S. Government told the American people they didn’t even deserve a $600 check of their own, taxpayer money. + +The banks, investment firms, and hedge funds got too greedy and pumped too much into the market ([Here’s what the s&amp;amp;amp;p currently looks like if you haven't seen this image](https://imgur.com/AV3OIrs)), and the SEC and the DTCC were complicit. Now, there’s too much liquidity. There is more borrowed money than real cash in the market and it has no real value. It’s a house of cards, ready to fall at any moment. The wheels are in motion. It is happening. Correction is imminent. + +The SEC realized the market bubble at least 6 months ago. You may have heard that big banks recently had huge record-setting sales last week on bonds and were taking advantage of a recent dip in Treasury yields. That was a lie. The SEC told brokers that as of April 22nd, they must have the capital to cover every share they borrowed from investors and lent out to hedge funds. So, banks needed billions of extra capital on hand by April 22nd or they would have had to recall shares. + +I personally believe that the crash has begun and has been in motion since early February. I wrote [a post about it](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/munkug/the_market_collapse_has_already_begun_and_has/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=web2x&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;context=3) yesterday, after realizing the trends for every stock on my watchlist have been extremely unusual. I received hundreds of comments from people saying they’re noticing the same unusual trend. + +The crash isn’t obvious to the average person because the stock market has continued to report record highs, every week. However, my trading strategy focuses entirely on penny stocks that are owned by hedge funds known to manipulate the market. Most stocks I invest in are all complete garbage, but I look for pump and dumps, obvious manipulation patterns, and anticipate runners based on near-identical charts of multiple companies. So, none of the stocks on my watchlists are in any of the benchmark indexes like the s&amp;amp;amp;p 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow. + +In one of the most interesting comments, [Comotron](https://www.reddit.com/user/Comotron/) explains it perfectly: "High-momentum stocks, which are risky at any time of the market cycle, are particularly so in the weeks prior to a bull market top. There could be a 'smaller dip first, followed by another rise for a few months and finally a much larger correction that officially ends the bull cycle. That’s the conclusion I reached upon analyzing all U.S. bull markets since 1926. Stocks that are riding a wave of momentum do not crest in unison with the broad market averages. They instead start to lose steam several weeks in advance. It is probably fair to say that "penny stocks" fall into the "high-momentum stocks" category. Either way, based on historical data, there appear to be credible indicators that suggest a market correction might happen in the near future.” + +That information is **fucking. fascinating.** From early December to mid-January, the market was ridiculously bullish. I literally made more money in one month than my annual salary. Then all of a sudden, every single one of my stocks just started trending downward, had a short rise, and have continued to bleed for the past few weeks. All of them. Exactly the same time. And exactly like he said in the comment. + +There has definitely already been a mass sell-off of securities by hedge funds who have lost AT LEAST 70 billion dollars in the past quarter, because of the tremendously dangerous and reckless risks they’ve taken recently, which alone would have crashed the market without the pump from the Federal Reserve. As we know, the hedge funds knew it would too, but gambled with our money anyway. This is just the beginning. There is a domino effect of bankruptcies on the way for hedge funds. + +We know the media has recently reported that investment banks and hedge funds had record-breaking quarters recently. Which, technically they did. But that’s because losses are only reported when you sell. They have not covered any of the short positions yet and are paying millions of dollars every single day until they do. In fact, capital from the mass sell-off isn’t going towards paying off their debt, millions of dollars are going towards suppressing this information, manipulating the market for more capital, and reducing losses. What they’re doing is completely illegal and the media is not reporting it, the left or the right-wing media. It’s because they’re all controlled by billionaires. In the past three months, I have never seen so much lying and corruption in my life. + +As the SEC’s deadline to secure capital approaches there have been other signs that things are going to blow up very soon. For instance: + +* The SEC announced in a press release that it will award a record-breaking $114 million to whistleblowers whose information and assistance lead to the successful enforcement of SEC and related actions. +* Gary Gensler was confirmed as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday. He was sworn on Saturday. What’s interesting about that is that it’s not typical to be sworn in on Saturdays. The last SEC chairman to be sworn in on a Saturday was George Bradford Cook, and it was before the Watergate scandal broke. + +When all this does break, they will try to change the narrative. They’re going to blame it on retail traders and say overvalued stocks bought during the pandemic caused the crash. Fox will probably even blame the Biden administration. But either way, they’ve already started pushing an alternative narrative. For example, CNN linked an interview with some dude (I really don’t care enough to look for his name or the video, because I don’t find him credible) who owns a market intelligence company. The guy apparently predicted every single market crash since 1987’s Black Monday. I watched the whole interview, and he went on and on about how there will be a market crash soon and said the reason is that tech stocks are overvalued right now. If he were an actual market expert explaining the upcoming market bubble, he would have mentioned any of the information above, but he didn’t. He strictly talked about tech stocks. + +So, yeah, it’s out there. Billionaires control the stock market, media, and our politicians. + +I don’t know about you guys, but I’m fucking sick of it. And for that, they need to pay. + +**The Ceiling/Floor:** + +There are many factors in all this that we need to calculate into our ceiling/floor. First of all, we should demand back the $17 trillion dollar bailout given to banks, that was gambled away recklessly, and will inevitably crash our economy. + +$17 trillion / 55.6 million (float) = $303,571.00/share + +That would be my floor if there was no market bubble. But there is. And it’s their fault. Therefore, our floor should hold them accountable for the massive amount of money Americans are about to lose when the market crashes. The only problem (for hedge funds) is that no one knows how much this is going to cost. + +For that reason, I believe GME is priceless. They can't afford to keep the price down, once the squeeze begins. We literally choose the price. The limit does not exist. + +I believed it before, but I see it now. And I have all the information, which makes me believe we are owed this money. Not just for past for corruption, but to cover future, unavoidable losses. + +I ask you all to stop fighting about the floor and ceiling, take down your sell limits, and repeat after me: + +**“My shares are not for sale.”** + +Stop thinking about selling. I will remind you again that we own the float. They’re paying millions of dollars in interest each day and will eventually be forced to cover. Force the liquidity to dry up. Watch buy orders rise from $1,000, $5,000, $10,000…$1,000,000…because they’re not being filled. + +Sell when you feel comfortable and believe it’s an amount you deserve. Everyone has different risk tolerances, not everyone will sell at the same time, and we know the original members of r/wallstreetbets have an extremely and unusually high tolerance for risk. So, trust us and each other. + +This really is a revolution. As Scaramucci Tweeted, this is like the modern-day French Revolution of finance. Gamestop is a MOTHERFUCKING (Keith) GILL-OTINE. + +This is the way. + +[Trust me. Everything is going to be fine.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbWHZwD5rGQ&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;ab_channel=FlashReborn) + +Edit: Since this hit r/all, I thought I would mention that I am a female because WSBs has gotten a lot of criticism about it being a "boys' club". It isn't. + +Edit 2: Yo, Mr. Gensler - FOR SOME REASON, Jay Clayton and the mainstream media were unable to figure most of this information out. (I know, crazy!) So, will I be receiving my $114 million whistleblower check in the mail...or...? Also, Jay Clayton might not be aware he's out of a job yet. You guys may want to let him know. Not on top of things, that one. +Inspired by the $120M exit post ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pwunq5/120m\_exit\_fireing\_and\_trying\_to\_hire\_a\_private/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pwunq5/120m_exit_fireing_and_trying_to_hire_a_private/)), let's take a step back and discuss about how people with $100M+ net worth actually managed their money in real life. + +I am actually one of the lucky few that reached $100M. ((I had to sign up a new reddit account to stay anonymous but can show proof to mod.) I started with $30M of windfall through a company IPO about a decade ago and am currently at $120M-$130M at the moment depending how you value my private holdings. I am a rare bread that I don't use big financial advisors. But here is my current NW breakdown. + +&#x200B; + +\- Index Funds. (Mix of DFA/Vanguard): $30M + +\- Concentrated Portfolio (kept some IPO stocks and other speculations including crypto): $45M + +\- Foundation/DAF: $5M + +\- Real Estate (incl primary residence, beach house and 4 rentals): $15M + +\- Private Investments (angel investments + vc funds): $25M - $35M + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------------ + +I don't like big private banks. I tried to let one of the big banks handled my account, they generate tons of trades but returns was poor. I specifically asked them not to get into any private investments because I was going to make them myself. I am glad I did that so I could get the control back easily and I have been doing well on my own. In retrospect, I do feel I spend too much time on investing my money. If I had just put everything into a well balanced index fund, I probably will end up getting the same results. I am glad that I spent quite a bit of time on early stage investments though. I think it's a great way to stay close to the tech ecosystem and see a number of entrepreneurs grow their companies into behemoths and become great leaders. + +&#x200B; + +I see the $30M index funds as my safety net that will cover the expenses for the rest of my life. The Real Estate's value is mostly personal use assets while the rentals pay for property taxes and are tax efficient. I do plan to gradually move my concentrated portfolio into my foundation and private investments over the next 20 years. I know how to do early stage investing and I think it's a great way to invest into human capital and create long term value. + +&#x200B; + +Overall, I think focusing on the numbers and returns is the wrong approach with this level of net worth. It's more about + +1. What are my and my family's needs and wants? +2. What do I want to do with my life? +3. How do I make this wealth useful in the grand scheme of things in the long run? + +&#x200B; + +I think I have pretty good answers for 1) but I am constantly contemplating 2) and 3) still. I believe I will have the answers eventually by experimenting different things. I will report back if I have more thoughts. + +&#x200B; + +\--------------------------- + +For folks with $100M NW, how do you manage your money and life? +By now I'm sure you've seen [my exchange](https://twitter.com/dlauer/status/1447907953193861120) with Gasparino on Twitter, but just in case: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lmk2nqvd02t71.png?width=244&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a48ea5a3eafd5b858b84b805e8f017b63e2e37f + +Of course, I think this is the most important tweet of the thread, and it's been really amazing to see the community support efforts at increasing transparency of markets and getting rid of corrupt practices like PFOF: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vnnkharn02t71.png?width=249&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdbcd84d149d754104de07891dd375d826355fd6 + +Charlie offered up some ice cream for someone who could show PFOF is bad for pension plans: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/i1xo6grs02t71.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=80d03c24c5b8751b5142d724effd2b670ab4de4f + +So here it is - spreads for the ENTIRE market are wider by 25% OR MORE. That costs pension plans, mutual funds and even retail investors money. And it makes any figures that cite "price improvement" a joke - because the improvement is being measured by the MMers against a spread that is wider due to THEIR actions! + +https://preview.redd.it/co9tx1z012t71.png?width=1096&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff12d528eb51dc37b07a2cbf43effa2dec9a345f + +https://preview.redd.it/w6hafad112t71.png?width=832&format=png&auto=webp&s=d9e5e81f69f4d5deff833ac01a2580f36bd8d317 + +It's also meant that [execution costs in the US are higher](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/which-country-has-most-liquid-equities-market-alexander-gerko/) than other countries when you adjust for company size: + +https://preview.redd.it/wh6kcz1912t71.png?width=2037&format=png&auto=webp&s=380e3763602d4aa3593d9fbff4618738adbb935f + +That's from a study by XTX Markets, one of the largest HFT firms in the world: + +>As you can see, after controlling for the company size, instantaneously available lit liquidity in US equities market is inferior to Tokyo Stock Exchange and Europe, and even to Korea for small stocks( below 1 bln USD free float).  +> +>In fact for small stocks the conclusion is strongly in favour of concentrating all liquidity onto a single CLOB, as both US and Europe do badly there, and even FTT in Korea doesn’t affect this conclusion. + +PFOF, among other "market features," is damaging pension plans, repeatedly, day after day. And it leads to more complexity and isolation of retail orders, which keeps those orders from interacting with the market, and confines them to interact only with OTC market makers (e.g., Citadel and Virtu). +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qpuzuprmcyq71.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=376d1d7b6fc1fc6e264a24cce0b2930d03e17b6f + +*This is one of a series of posts where I will apply my fast and dirty historical fundamental analysis to some of the biggest dogshit stocks of 2021. If you are interested in the process I use below to evaluate a stock, check out* [How Do I Buy A Stonk???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lzjpvf/how_do_i_buy_a_stock/) + +# The Business + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/77cbcbfscyq71.png?width=2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a23d0c3847d2eb92524df70a82f2e7abf15910e + +Fortescue Metals Group is an Australian iron ore miner that was founded in 2003 by Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest. In its relatively short history, it has grown to become the 4th largest iron ore producer in the world. + +[from FY21 Annual Report presentation](https://preview.redd.it/qtnqu9btcyq71.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=454602e2fe8685c5193e62fefbcac821813234a2) + +Based out of Perth its operations are in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. There it owns mining tenements that span 87 thousand square kms. In addition to the mines, Fortescue owns and operates its own private railways, port facilities, and cargo ships, which it uses to export iron ore to its trading company in Shanghai, China. Its vertical integration makes Fortescue is one of the most efficiently costed iron ore producers in the world. + +# The Checklist + +* Net Profit: positive 10 of last 10 years. Good ✅ +* Outstanding Shares: very stable L10Y. Good ✅ +* Revenue, Profit, & Equity: rev/profit cyclical, volumes & equity increasing L10Y. Good ✅ +* Insider Ownership: 49.3% w/ on market buying LY, major sell by CEO LM. Good\* ✅ +* Debt / Equity: 24% w/ Current Ratio of 2.3x. Good ✅ +* ROE: 27% Avg L10Y w/ 58% FY20. Good ✅ +* Dividend: 5.3% 10Y Avg Yield w/ 24.1% FY20. Good ✅ +* BPS $7.66 (1.9x P/B) w/ NTA $6.32 (2.3x P/NTA). Good ✅ +* 10Y Avg: SPS $4.25 (3.5x P/S), EPS $1.19 (12.4x P/E). Neutral ⚪ +* Growth: +21.7% Avg Revenue Growth L10Y w/ 58.8% FY20. Good ✅ + +**Fair Value: $16.34** + +**Target Buy: $13.52** + +\* I’ve opted to consider the insider ownership overall as a positive. Insiders owning such a large portion of a \~50billion dollar company is fairly uncommon. Andrew Forrest alone owns over 1.1billion of the roughly 3.1billion shares on offer. Though, it is important to note that the CEO, Elizabeth Gaines, sold about 11 million worth of her shares in Sept this year. That was nearly all of her direct holdings (about 85%). + +# The Knife + +[marketindex.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/zpi05w08dyq71.png?width=2587&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed5cde0df024e21c1cda425868cc85ebcf2509ad) + +Overall, the 10 year chart doesn’t look too bad. Though, that should not take away from the harsh and dramatic fall of the FMG shares since the end of July. FMG had just months prior in January of this year achieved a price over $26. It held above $20 for the most part in the 6months that followed, just cracking above its all-time high again when it reached $26.63 in July. But almost immediately following, FMG went into free-fall, reaching $14.15 by the middle of Sept, only 6 weeks later. + +At the close of Friday, the 1st of October @ $14.57, those that had bought FMG at its all time high, not much more than a month prior, would have lost nearly half of their investment capital. This dramatic fall is soothed only slightly by the historic $2.11 fully franked dividend paid at the end of Sept. However, the question is very real whether the descent of FMG’s shares will continue. + +# The Diagnosis + +The short answer: Iron ore price r fuk. + +The long answer: As a cyclical business, there is no denying that FMG is closely linked to its sole product. Though, there is a little bit more nuance to this story, revolving around the destination of its goods. But before that, let’s look at the first half of this equation. + +[FMG vs Iron Ore futures](https://preview.redd.it/0szop6bcdyq71.png?width=2586&format=png&auto=webp&s=197f270437aea79d4cabb50e0c6734e09801a54a) + +The 5 year chart above illustrates the point well. When iron ore was lingering around $50-70USD/t for 62% Fe in 2017 and 2018, FMG was a solid and profitable $4 stock. When the iron ore price picked up in 2019 and launched to $120USD/t sitting before retracing in the range around $80-120, FMG became a solid $9 stock. When iron ore rocketed in the middle of 2020, reaching an all-time high of $229USD/t in May of 2021… well, you know the story. + +&#x200B; + +[Dogestonk or dogstonk?](https://preview.redd.it/yspe9o9kdyq71.png?width=1900&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b82d77fb977c9c3d9a30c7701b486089b6671b2) + +FMG rises and falls at the whim of the commodities markets. As is the nature of mining stocks, fixed costs become smaller in relation to the extra revenue generated from commodity price increases, so the upside for reaching an all-time high in the spot market benefits the miners of that commodity multi-fold. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/iavbnkimdyq71.png?width=2810&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0707034e95191fd1f1a12806c18a1296b495100 + +One thing that is important to note with FMG in particular, is that the average grade that they produce is only 58% Fe on average. This leads to its product to being discounted to the spot price. This discount tends to widen as a percentage of the benchmark as the benchmark spot price declines, and tighten as it increases. Naturally, if 62% Fe or higher grades are more affordable producers are willing to pay the premium, which drops demand for the lower grades. While this magnifies the benefits that FMG receives when times are good, it’s exacerbates the lows when there is a lull in the market. + +Now that iron ore has dropped to the current price of roughly $110USD/t at the end of Sept, one would naturally expect for FMG to follow, and presumably down to price levels that it held in the past at similar iron ore prices. In the last 15 years, the average price of the benchmark 62% Fe has been roughly $100. So it would seem maybe that there a bit more downside to come? + +# The Outlook + +I’m not a commodities market wizard, so I’m not really in the prediction game here. However, I can say that there are some developments in the last few weeks that would appear to have significantly contributed to the decline or iron ore, and perhaps points to there being even more downside than an extra $10USD/t. Those developments revolves around the worlds biggest buyer of iron ore: China. + +&#x200B; + +[Figures from OEC.world](https://preview.redd.it/yzksbblpdyq71.png?width=2200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1e1436e44e7d8f5973c81e4b40a279faa844957) + +Among net importer of the product, China represents 2/3rds of the total demand. It’s hard to understate how substantial their market presence is for this product. When China sneezes, iron ore producers get a cold. By contrast, in the coal market China is only the 3rd largest importer, with less than a 1/5th of the total demand (18%). When China banned Australian coal, it only phased the market temporarily. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p4b5hcpudyq71.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=0399e5da98d32732c8a6133921d3018763a9539d + +By contrast, with China only dialling back steel production, they crashed the iron ore market price by nearly half. Chinese steel producers earlier in the year were ordered by government to cut their production 25%-50%. Iron ore went from selling in a range of $210-220, near its all-time high for months, to falling to $90-120 in the span of weeks. + +&#x200B; + +[Who's next?](https://preview.redd.it/s5gcstkyhyq71.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c99fe83c9d14b756005fead20622b008d431be4) + +There’s been a long chain of Australian exports that have seen their markets disrupted to one degree or another by the shifts in China’s policies regarding their importation. And it is no secret at this point that China has a made a point to single out Australia. However, with Australia contributing to over half of the iron ore exports in the world, the trading ties between the two countries on this commodity are a bit deeper and harder to overtly address. + +The two countries are quite truely interlinked by iron ore. That being said, 80% of Australia’s exports of iron ore are to China, while only 60% of China’s imports of iron ore are from Australia. Who has the most leverage in this situation? + +# The Verdict + +One thing that Australia, and by extension FMG, has going for it on this front is that the Chinese economy is quite heavily focused on their construction market. This has been the primary factor contributing for all this demand for iron ore. It has been fueling China's steel industry, that has been booming since 2005, supplying the product into their growing construction market. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2n0s3e51eyq71.png?width=4000&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3f09648d60f3b48917d53f5388a05c51fe42dc8 + +Indeed, one can see a long relationship between Australia and China for the last 20 odd years; China’s imports almost mirror Australia’s exports. It should be no surprise that the ramp up in demand for iron has followed the ramp up in the construction market over that period. + +&#x200B; + +[40 Year Iron Ore Price History](https://preview.redd.it/clq8xze4eyq71.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=9612174366c90bc6e77a1fa4d5639549942d6e81) + +As an aside, and perhaps also not surprisingly, the profitability of iron ore producers has shown dramatic upside in recent years. It would appear to be due to the enormous demand that the Chinese construction economy has put onto the market. Even adjusted for inflation, iron ore never broke above $50USD/t in 25+ years prior to China ramping up their building efforts. If anything, the hard times for producers like FMG in 2016, were just a reversion to the mean, and indeed an inflated mean at that. The average 40year price sits at around $55USD/t because of the huge spikes in 2008, 2011, and now in 2021. + +With Australia as the largest producer in the world by far, they have a lot to lose from this market toppling. But should China want to boycott Australia, their own economy will suffer the consequences too. + +**Sovereign Risk** + +Though, at this point, it seems quite relevant to consider the idea of sovereign risk. FMG especially, as they are even more heavily exposed to Chinese demand that even Australia is, with about 95% of their sales routed through their Shanghai based FMG Trading Co. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kuj2ikwfeyq71.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=0827b0c0a5422401d336709bd936d0c63217f7bf + +Some enlightening work by u/Mutated_Cunt, u/mcfucking, u/Triog0n, and others in last weekend’s pinned discussion sheds a lot of light on the precarious situation. [Evergrande-Gate. Is there a Bear in there? What happens when big kids take over the Sand-Pit?](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/puujva/evergrandegate_is_there_a_bear_in_there_what/) + +^((The commenters there have said it better than I ever could, so I would recommend checking it out of you haven’t already.)) + +&#x200B; + +[Ghost Cities of China](https://preview.redd.it/viingr2meyq71.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a018c1d21293381c2ca06c9e65ab71b028d6a1e) + +I highlight in particular the point raised by our benevolent mod, that China might actually welcome a crash in their construction markets. With housing prices there being seen by the government as far too high, they may see a collapse of the industry as a justifiable means to the end of reducing those costs and perhaps cleaning up the industry a bit. + +&#x200B; + +[You underestimate my power!](https://preview.redd.it/mz41q2eneyq71.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=1677851ccb6e4e827a3ed6076b558dda36239d5e) + +Such a prospect doesn’t exactly bode well for the price of iron, Australia's economy, or FMG’s profitability in the future. + +# The Target + +With all that being said, it remains to be seen what FMG is really worth, especially with the prospects of iron ore now sitting in around $90-120USD/t or lower in the medium term. For this, I think there are a few ways to go about it. + +**Historical L10Y Adjusted** + +To start with, let’s have a look at the last 10 years for FMG. In that time, we see the end of one mining boom (FY12) and the peak of another (FY21). + +&#x200B; + +[Figures in AUD](https://preview.redd.it/p2yvswereyq71.png?width=2301&format=png&auto=webp&s=a79c2c1595be3b1009ded741602f427f27841668) + +One thing that is somewhat difficult to account for at first is the fact that during this time frame, FMG has been expanding their production capabilities. They went from shipping 57.5mt of iron ore in FY12 to 182.2mt in FY21. To adjust for that that, I’ve noted their tonnage and their revenue by tonnage shipped. This allows us to find an adjusted “average,” by using the expected FY22 shipping outlook along with the average revenue by tonnage. + +It’s worth noting that the effective average price that FMG achieved of $91.5AUD/t in this time period was (using a currency conversion rate of 70cents) roughly $64USD/t. + +Using this adjusted average, I can generate the below revised 10 year fair and target pricing. + +**Fair Price (R10Y) – $14.91** + +**Target Buy (R10Y) – $13.20** + +This pricing isn’t too bad as a first pass, considering there’s a fair bit of further downside built into the expected iron ore price. + +**Technical Price Levels** + +A second way to go about this is to look at the last 3 years of price action. FMG’s production levels haven’t changed dramatically in this time, and we have a few substantial periods in which the iron ore price held a fairly consistent price level. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5a6g2ceteyq71.png?width=2584&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9bb40553e90413f452b15acf8c794ff9b8dc281 + +For most of 2019, the iron ore price floated in the $90 range. In that time, FMG traded in a range between $6 and 12 dollars. I expect the uptrend in the stock was owing to the fact that there was also an uptrend in the commodity, having come from a much lower base in the years prior. + +Similarly, in 2020 a few months between between April to Nov, iron ore established a new price level of around $120USD/t. At that point, FMG traded in a range between $14 and $20, and for much of that period it sat solidly at the $17 price level. With iron ore dipping to $90USD/t before bouncing back to $120USD/t and now sitting at $110USD/t, it makes sense than that FMG dropped back into this range, and looked as though it would dip further until iron bounced. + +Whether FMG is a good deal all depends on which direction one thinks that the iron ore price is likely to go. If you are bullish from here, then perhaps, trading in the lower end of the channel, they are slightly under-priced? If you are bearish, there is quite a bit more downside to go. + +**FY22 Earnings Projections** + +A third way to go about this is to dig into FMG’s financial reports and try to construct a model from which to estimate their earnings based on an expected iron ore price, and from that generate the per share figures to establish fair and target pricing. + +&#x200B; + +[Costs approximate to FY20 & FY21 levels. Initial figures in USD.](https://preview.redd.it/9l7ezqsveyq71.png?width=2500&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b86a287598aea7bccd0a928d63f9cf1e1cb08f9) + +The advantage to this is that we can see a good range of possibilities, and match them to historical levels. We can also establish where the breakeven point is for FMG, at which point they are no longer profitable. Luckily for badhodlers of this stock, the breakeven is quite low, as FMG is a very efficient producer with their vertical integration. + +The difficult part is accounting for the variable discount for 58% grade product. As mentioned earlier in this post, the discount as a % of the spot price for the benchmark 62% Fe grade become more substantial as the price falls. I’ve attempted to simulate this by allocating a spread which roughly aligns to historical market pricing spreads. + +As one can see, depending on how bullish or bearish one is, there is a very wide variety of potential fair and target prices. It is for the investor themselves to do their own research and determine what they are comfortable with, but I would note that should iron ore hit price levels similar to those in FY16, the downside to the current price of the stock is significant. This is based both on these projections and FMG’s historical trading price levels, which traded as low as $1.50 at that time. + +With the world in a precarious spot, macro economically, and the trading relationship between Australia and China deteriorating, that downside is quite real. + +**A note about FFI** + +It would be remiss of me to not mention Fortescue Future Industries (FFI). FMG have committed to contributing 10% of their NPAT going forward to the venture. FFI has been setup to explore lowering FMG’s operating emissions. More importantly (to the valuation), their mission is to develop technology to make FMG more profitable in the future, namely, by researching green methods of refining iron to a higher grade. + +The profitability picture in the above projections looks a hell of a lot better if FMG can offset the heavy discounts to lower grade product at lower prices. This ultimately could be a game changer for them. But this is all fairly speculative at this stage, so it does not necessarily figure in the hard figures right now. However, that could change should FFI come up with something promising. + +# The TL;DR + +Fortescue Metals Group is an Australian iron ore producer that is based in Perth and operates out of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. It’s a relatively young company, having been founded by Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest less than 20 years ago in 2003. Despite this, they have become the 4th largest iron ore producer in the world, with mining tenements larger than BHP and Rio Tinto. + +Fortescue is also one of the most cost efficient iron ore producers at that, with a vertically integrated company. They own and operate not only their mine sites, but also the railways, trains, port facilities, and even a fleet of iron ore carrier ships to bring it to market. It is no wonder then that Fortescue have been a very reliable and profitable company that have been able to so quickly expand. With their Futures Industries division, they may yet notch a ground breaking R&D mineral sciences company to their bow string. + +Fortescue’s fortunes heavily follow the fate of the iron ore commodity market, and as a result their fate is tied to the Chinese economy. Ineed, 95% of their revenue comes from sales through their Shanghai based trading company. Therefore, Fortescue are at the whim ongoing trading relationship or lack thereof between Australia and CHina. And so it would seem they also have heavy exposure to the domestic policies of the Chinese government with regards to their construction industry. + +As a result, we’ve seen Fortescue tank after iron ore came off the boil, even after only recently this year achieving new all-time highs. Where the share price goes from here would take a predictive mind that is beyond my own capabilities. I think overall Fortescue is a good company, but whether or not they have a willing customer is perhaps the ultimate question. And with the downside of this stock approaching 90%, working off historical levels only 4-5 years prior, and the economics of China and the world walking a tightrope, one must have a lot courage to buy them at this stage. At least, in my humble opinion. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on FMG* *and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*On Deck Next Fortnight: URW/SCG* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (no particular order): CGF, IPL, Z1P, RFG, AZJ, FLT, QAN, CWN, FNP, RRL.* + +[Previous Editions of Catching the Knife](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nevelo/comments/sfc7gi/catching_the_knife_series/) +On November 28, 2017, the US Senate, Committee of the Judiciary held a hearing regarding bill S.1241: Modernizing AML Laws to Combat Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing. Despite little attention being given to digital currencies during the hearing, bill S.1241 itself would amend the definition of ‘financial institution’ in the United States Code to include digital currencies and digital exchanges. This could have alarming consequences for users of cryptocurrencies both in the US and abroad. + +Bill S.1241 would amend the definition of ‘financial institution,’ in Section 5312(a) of title 31, United States Code, to include “an issuer, redeemer, or cashier of prepaid access devices, digital currency, or any digital exchanger or tumbler of digital currency.” Currently, the definition of ‘financial institution’ includes banks, trust companies, credit unions, currency exchanges, etc. + +In her introduction, Mrs. Feinstein, Ranking Member of the Judiciary Committee, said (31:35), “The bill criminalizes intentionally concealing ownership or control of a bank account.” Although, during the hearing, no further clarifications were given as to the effects this would have on the cryptocurrency community, based on the amended definition of ‘financial institution’, it seems clear enough that the bill would “criminalize [those] intentionally concealing ownership or control of a [digital currency or digital exchange] account.” Wow. Let this sink in for a minute… + +The US senate is proposing a bill to make criminals out of anyone intentionally concealing ownership or control of a digital currency or digital exchange account. What’s more, according to the hearing’s prolonged discussion of US law enforcement’s handling of foreign banks and financial institutions, this bill is certain to have far-reaching effects on not only US citizens but the global community as a whole. + +If the above statement describes you, it is strongly recommended that you watch the hearing with this new definition of ‘financial institution’ in mind. If you’ve already watched the hearing, watch it again, but this time replace all mentions of ‘banks and financial institutions’ with ‘digital currencies and digital exchanges.’ The implications are really rather alarming. + +Interestingly enough, Ms. Kathryn Haun Rodriguez, a Coinbase Board of Directors Member, made absolutely no mention of digital currencies or digital exchanges in her testimony; nor was she asked any questions pertaining to these topics. + +Conversely, in her July 2017 written testimony to the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services and Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance, she stated that some users of digital currencies use them “to conceal and move illicit proceeds because of the perception that virtual currency is untraceable.” + +Also in her prior written testimony, she stated that “the FinTech industry could be a very helpful partner to the government in addressing national security concerns;” that “investigators like digital footprints and that is exactly what digital currencies provide;” and that “of course, we can only follow the money to an individual or group if they used a Regulated exchange, one that follows basic AML/KYC laws.” Advertisement + +Contrary to the bill itself, the hearing was noticeably lacking in references to cryptocurrencies; although there was some limited mention of such. + +Ms. Klobuchar (2:16:58): + +“Is this transition we’re seeing from cash to digital going to make it easier or harder for law enforcement to track these money laundering cases, and you think these drug cartels are gonna start going cash free, and what do you do about it?” +Mr. John A. Cassara (2:17:15): + +“Senator, I’m just glad I had my career when I did because I don’t know what I’d do trying to follow the money when it comes to digital currencies, it’s extremely, extremely challenging…I think if you look at the metrics, the metrics suggest today [that] digital currencies are a small fraction of the threat that we face. That’s not to say it’s gonna be the case in 5-10 years from now. We’re right at a crossroads, and it’s going to be very, very interesting to see what goes forward.” +Due to the probable negative implications for the global cryptocurrency community, hopefully the interpretation of bill S.1241 in this article is proven incorrect; however, at this point, it seems fairly clear (at least to me, the author) that this is the intent behind the bill. If this is indeed the case, it will be the most recent attack on a growing list of State-backed attacks against the crypto-community. + +Furthermore, from the noticeable lack of references made to digital currencies during the hearing, it would appear this bill is yet another underhanded attempt of the US Government to further erode global freedoms and civil liberties, which markedly began with the introduction of the Patriot Act, shortly after the 9/11 attacks. + +As Tone Vayes mentioned, it would have been nice if Andreas Antonopoulos was there to impart some of the wisdom he shared with the Canadian Senate, on October 8, 2014. + +Tone Vayes’ summation*: “It’s bad…I think it’s gonna end in a very confrontational way between Bitcoin—even Bitcoin holders and users—and the US Government.” + +Jimmy Song’s summation*: “Yeah, the nice thing about laws is they take a long time…” + +Indeed it will be “very, very interesting to see what goes forward.” If this bill passes, how many of you future criminals out there are still set on hodling? + +*to be fair, neither had yet watched the entire hearing. + +Full Disclosure: Landon Mutch is a contributor to the Lightning Network, a layer-two Bitcoin protocol, also BTCManager is scamming it’s writers and not paying them :(. +I took the afternoon off of checking the ticker and came back 2 hours into AH to see it up over 25%. Immediately I went to Superstonk to see what the fuck happened and do you know what I saw? Not the crazy "tHiS iS moAAsS BucklE uP!!" Posts I expected to see (and which I did get from the popcorn sub BTW even though it was only up about 7%) but instead I saw post after post calmly assessing the situation and arriving to the conclusion that it was likely not because of the WSJ article. + +Thank you Superstonk. It's truly amazing to see how far we've come since I joined this community almost exactly 1 year ago today. + +I had zero fear during the drop to 120, I have zero expectations for tomorrow, and I'm proud to call myself one of you. + +Buy, hodl, DRS. + +Edit: lol I got a notification that I hit 250 updoots and by the time I checked I was at 212. Apparently somebody doesn't like how zen we are +Hello Reddit! + +Entities can invest in people by loans and make a profit. Student loans, mortgage, credit card debt. + +In my Imaginary dystopian future there is surely a predatory business handling out loans with a clause 3 like this: + +"1 You get X instant money now. + +2(optional) you have to pay it back within T time. + +3 of all future income after taxes you must pay R% to us in perpetuity." + +If payment rate R is 100% i can see that this contract is basically economic slavery. And thus maybe illegal. But suppose it is 10% like some people choose to pay tithes? I know garnishing of wages is a thing, + +But why else isn't there a company out there buying people's souls like this? There are plenty of people with short term problems who would take this. + +Profitability: maybe it wouldn't be profitable? Surely you can adjust the variables X,T,R. There are some big up front costs for this of course, but that many businesses overcome this. + +Enforcement: how would one go about enforcing this? Just sue people for breach of contract? And use Discovery phase to see income. Could people declare bankruptcy to escape this? + +Does this business model already exist? There has gotta be some cults out there that do this. + +Legality: this sounds really awful, dystopian, predatory. And should probably illegal to protect consumers. But is it illegal to? In what countries? + +It really boggles my mind that with all the predatory economic bullshit and scams out there that this way of doing it is so ... absent? + +Why? +The bill was being autopaid on his credit card. I think he was aware he was paying it (I'm assuming), but not sure that he really knew why. Or he forgot about it as I don't believe he receives physical bills in the mail and he autopays everything through his card. + +He's actually super smart financially. Budgets his money, is on track to retire next year (he's 56 now), uses a credit card for all his spending for points, and owns approximately 14 rental properties. + +I don't think he's used dial up for at least the last 10....15 years? Anything he can do other than calling and cancelling now? + +EDIT: AOL refused to refund anything as I figured, and also tried to keep on selling their services by dropping the price when he said to cancel. + +I got a little clarification on the not checking his statement thing: He doesn't really check his statements. Or I guess he does, but not in great detail. My dad logs literally everything in Quicken, so when he pays his monthly credit card bill (to which he charges pretty much everything to) as long as the two (payment due and what he shows for expenses in Quicken) are close he doesn't really think twice. He said they've always been pretty close when he compares the two so he didn't give it second thought. +Whilst at university I applied for and recieved a 20k interest free loan as part of a help the poor uni students out scheme to be paid back in full within 10 years. I popped the 20k in a high interest savings account the whole time, repayed the 20k and kept the profit. Its a scum bag move but I figure it didn't hurt anyone or break any laws. +This guy was somehow given magical powers: every time he tweets about a coin, it goes to the moon. +He uses it on nebulous coins with no proven teams nor product like Verge, Burst etc ... + +His tweets and insights are no better than your typical reddit crypto bug ("hodl", "coins on sale", "I am not shilling, this will change the world" etc ...). +He brings no insight, no perspective, he is just purely shilling BS, and it's working. + +I think he understood the crypto game well and uses his name to the fullest. + +Edit : it's even worse than I thought, just scroll throigh his latest tweets, you will find his "due diligence" on Electroneum. It's embarassing. +He also tweeted that he read all the whitepapers out there (please..) +I just wanted to say thank you to everyone that’s ever encouraged someone else to make good financial decisions and to save up an emergency fund. It’s thanks to advice like yours that I’ve built up a 3-month emergency fund and almost immediately after reaching that goal I have to go under for surgery that costs my out of pocket maximum. If it wasn’t for the emergency fund I’d be stressing out and going into debt to take care of the expense. + +So to all of you still working on your financial plans I highly encourage building up that emergency fund because you never know when life is going to throw you a curveball. + +And thank you all for sharing your advice. + +Edit: The surgery was a success and I’m on my way to recovery. Thanks, financial planners! :) +Edit: A major piece of this puzzle just hit me in the comments from an ape who read the OG DD!!!! RC WORK tweet is pointing to 1933 Act, the same act cited in this 741 form from Dreyfus! Ive added it into the DD below. Jason Waterfall, you beautiful bastard! + +As the debt is now coming due, and Kenny is probably desperate to find a counterparty to onboard his fucking market crashing sized crime bag. I have been asked to update a previous DD I made in hopes other apes can add more now. Please share this and comment anything you find relevant. + +7 4 1 and the huge bag of illegal naked synthetic shorts. + +I found a document filed by Dreyfus Florida Municipal Money Market Fund in 2007 + +https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/911746/000091174607000015/form-741.htm + +Form 741 as described by this ape - https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q8cf95/sec_form_741/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +At the bottom of this form, it mentions some of the securities do not need to to be registered inder the 1933 Act... + +"Securities exempt from registration under Rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933. These securities may be resold in   transactions exempt from registration, normally to qualified institutional buyers. At August 31, 2007, these securities   amounted to $44,315,000 or 16.3% of net assets. " + +That sound familiar? Because I only want to hear from candidates who want to WORK (Slack) lawsuit on selling unregistered shares! Holy shit! That's what RC is hinting to us! Slack is being sued for exactly this!!! + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qdb2g7/shout_out_to_wrinkly_brains_about_that_sec_form/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +The Dreyfus name rang a bell...So I dug a little bit deeper. + +Guess who owns that fund? + +BNY Mellon + +https://im.bnymellon.com/us/en/ + +Guess who clears Kennys trades? +Guess who holds the "Brazilian Puts" +Guess what fund Goldman had to bail out to prevent dominos. Dreyfus + +Goldman also has a bunch of Dreyfus in their company +https://www.google.com/amp/s/ca.wallmine.com/people/65605/maria-s-dreyfus.amp + +Again + +https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-dreyfus-b65554209 + +Daniel has a history with Goldman before heading over to 3G Capital in Brazil 👀👀👀 Those Brazilian puts looking real sexy huh Daniel? +3G Capital is a Brazilian-American multibillion-dollar investment firm + +https://www.privateequityinternational.com/3g-capital-quietly-hires-goldman-executive/ + +Goldman also showing evidence of being in bed with Mellon/Dreyfus when shit was getting real - https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q50q3j/was_bny_mellon_taken_over_by_goldman_from_the/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +Im sure you can all find how intertwined this name is at Goldman. Be helpful to get more eyes here + +Because Fidelity fucked with apes today, good to know whos been breathing down Fidelitys neck for shares to borrow - “Fidelity uses an unaffiliated securities lending agent, **Goldman Sachs**, for its equity funds.” + +Since 2017 this is the likely the fund used to naked short GME to oblivion, likely others too. But one eerie point stood out to me 741 - I shit you not. go look for yourself. 741B + +BNY Mellon's Dreyfus Corporation serves as the investment manager of the fund, and MBSC Securities Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dreyfus, serves as the fund's distributor. The fund is sub-advised by Pareto Investment Management Limited, an affiliate of Dreyfus and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Insight Investment Management Limited ("Insight" or "Insight Investment"), a BNY Mellon investment boutique with $741 billion under management globally2. + +https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bny-mellon-investment-management-launches-multi-asset-fund-1001909081 + +Found some compelling evidence from DFV. yeah thats right. Look at the dates vs gme share price, whats her name? Why would she be relieved? + +https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1405258938543742976?s=20 + +https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1405204944471445505?s=20 + + +And then Daves tweet below, pushed me to Seinfeld again.... https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q87vjy/what_do_the_numbers_mean_mason/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +Dave almost instantly deleted this tweet. Dave never deletes tweets....🚨🚨🚨 Look at the title of the post. Look at the format of the tweet! "whats the deal" ... remind you of a certain sitcom? Notice what Tungsten is on the PTE 74(1) + +I believe I have found out who is colluding with Kenny and Co to hide, recycle, and naked short GME via deep options and dirty swaps. This is the entity spoken about but not named in this recent DD - https://threader.app/thread/1441157342045749253 + +Im now getting very confident about this, and a huge bag of these puts expires tomorrow as per the briefly visible Bloomberg Terminal 150 puts showed. T+35 puts us exactly at the absolute end of this wedge End of Nov. to end of dec. + + DFV tweeting twice Elaine Dreyfus relieved and wanting to move on.. just after our spike to 350ish... yeah there is something here. I think Dreyfus fund, that holds alot of celebrities' money, is about to get rekt. I see you Michael Jordan 👀 + +A recent Burry tweet #GMESQUEEZE shows a sheet with Merrill Lynch shorting into GME buyback to avoid being squeezed. Merrill.... are you connected to this toxic Dreyfus bag.... didnt take long to find that answer. + +A look into Dreyfus has uncovered some dark shit. But noteable names be showing up on page 55 of their Mutual Fund Disclosure in 2008! Oh hello Merril Lynch and every other bad actor garbage shit fund... + +Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Leeman, Credit Suisse. 2008 never ended...just got kicked. + +https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/30160/000003016008000005/dmmi485.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjzvrjywcvzAhUfknIEHWC5A48QFnoECA8QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0kR-5Ewsv8BhZihy0Diti1 + +and on page 56 we have a link to dreyfus.com +who is the manager of the fund right. Do me a favor visit dreyfus.com + +Where does it redirect.... BNY Mellon + +Oh buddy, I have found the counterparty who took the bad bet from Kenny and co. + +Look at BNY Mellons Dreyfus CUSIP number, familiar? + https://im.bnymellon.com/us/en/individual/funds/05587K741 +Edit: Since my original DD, they have killed this link 👀 +But use a CUSIP lookup - 05587K741 +Edit 2: Banker ape looked up the CUSIP and noted that it was originally different changed on 06/03/2019 "The original cusip was 86271F768. It was called Strategic FDS INC or Dreyfus INTL STCK-1 FUND" + +Kenny onboarding Sr execs from Mellon to work this problem internally + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r5u5w8/kenneth_griffin_hired_the_vice_president_of_bny/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share + +Do you see what Im saying here? Look into Dreyfus and you shall find the trail to Kenny. Looking forward to other wrinkles getting their heads around this. + +A message to two specific people. I await the sign. You know who you are + +Message to all apes. DRS is the only way you can fight this. Options are only for those who are professionals and exercise(DFV) at any and all cost no matter what ITM or OTM. Shout out to that tard who exercised last week way otm, you are a hero. If you play options, you MUST be as retarded as you can and exercise every single one and DRS(the algos cant beat this, Kenny will have to deliver shares on the option, just like they cant beat holding. DRS Exercise DRS +Age 55. No debt. 401k hit 900k today and I am kind of psyched about it, but I can't tell anyone I know. + +If I told friends, family, or coworkers it'd just piss'em off. Can't tell my wife bc I'm divorced. If I told my kids it would make them crazy, and they would not understand what it takes to save that much or what the savings actually mean. + +So here I am posting under a throwaway account to share with a bunch of strangers... +I have a corporate salary account with HDFC. I use HDFC NetBanking to transfer money and since 31st Jan was a Sunday and I had to make payments on 1st Feb I thought I would use the 'Schedule Payment' feature to send money on 1st Feb instead of 'Transfer Now' - you know just keep the books clean MoM. + +I got charged Rs 25+ remittance charges which was ~ Rs100 for 3 transactions. And they charged this 10days after the fact in the account. I would have missed it if I didn't look at the detailed statement every month. And unfortunately I did the same for March before I went through the statements. + +I have disputed this with HDFC as the line item and their customer care insists this was a 'standing instruction'. Now for any NEFT through HDFC there are 3 options - Transfer Now, Schedule Payment (1 time thing), Standing instruction (Multiple times). + + +I have a couple points of contention with this. +1. They have not mentioned this extra charge anywhere while doing the trasaction. The customer care sent a link in the far corner of HDFC website which talks about all 'fees & charges'. +2. They did not charge the amount immediately or even the day when the supposed 'Standing instruction' was executed. It took 10 more days making it seem like they weren't related incidents. + +Anyway this is a PSA to anyone who didn't know this - Everything other than 'Transfer Now' comes at a steep price every single time. + +Update: +I was charged Rs 88.50 and with complaint they reversed it and deposited Rs 75 back to my account. Not sure why the discrepancy but I am going to follow up on it further. +They sent an email stating 'We refer to your CRM dated on 6th March received at our branch for Standing Instruction charges reversal. We take this opportunity to update you on your complaint regarding SI charges got reversal' +Hey guys, It's your neighborhood friendly branch manager here with a personal finance post about credit cards. (TL;DR at the bottom) + +&#x200B; + +Normally I would not advise anyone just starting out at work to get a credit card, simply because those delightful offers and points manipulate you into spending more. + +&#x200B; + +But Covid changed everything! + +&#x200B; + +Even before Covid, Banks had increasingly moved towards digitization and instant disbursal of loans. Customers could get instant offers based on their salary credit and credit score. It looked like there was no longer a need for bank staff to manually check their salary etc. This worked well for people who had years of repayment history and had formal access to bank credit. + +&#x200B; + +When Covid struck, however, a lot of people needed cash because they were out of a job or their income sources dried up. Trouble was, they had never taken a loan, and so they didn't have a repayment history nor a CIBIL score. The ones who still had a job could get a loan based on their salary slip but small business owners/freelancers couldn't get one. + +&#x200B; + +Why? Because they didn't have a CIBIL score and they couldn't show income proof (since everything was under lockdown and they didn't have revenue). Without a repayment track record to judge them from and no proof of income, they had to resort to gold loans or selling their property. + +&#x200B; + +So when a friend of mine (Let's call him - Vijay) kept asking me about wanting a credit card, instead of advising him not to take one, I changed my mind. + +At the time, Vijay did not have a CIBIL score. If he wanted to take a housing loan, the interest rate for someone without a CIBIL score would be approx. 0.5% higher than somebody with a CIBIL score above 780. + +&#x200B; + +If Vijay wanted to take a housing loan of 50 lakhs, he would have to pay 3.7 lacs more over the course of a 20-year loan. This amount increases to 6.2 lacs in case of a 30-year loan! + +Five years ago, I would have thought "That's just 3.7 lacs over the period of 20 years" but after becoming a FIRE wannabe, I balk at the thought of paying that much extra. So I decided to help Vijay generate a CIBIL score. + +&#x200B; + +Vijay did not have a payslip, (He is in the services industry and getting paid in cash) so no credit card provider was willing to give him one, even though he was getting paid in excess of the 30,000 salary threshold. + +(Note: If you don't have a salary slip, banks won't give you a loan. So although Vijay doesn't have a payslip now, he is confident that he can get a formal one later. But good credit scores need a long repayment history, which is why I wanted to create a positive repayment history for him as soon as possible) + +&#x200B; + +And that's when I got him an FD backed credit card. My bank lets him get a credit card by providing an FD - No credit history or salary slip required. They let you use up to 90% of the FD limit (but I told him to keep it to strictly 30% of the card limits to let him increase his score). The minimum FD amount was ₹10,000 which Vijay paid up and soon enough he got the credit card over post within 7 days. + +&#x200B; + +I also signed him up for a yearly CIBIL subscription in order to check the results of my experiment. CIBIL scores didn't show up for the first three months. + +But after three months... + +He now had a CIBIL score of 740 🥳🥳. It's been six months since he got one and his CIBIL score improved to 742. [(Proof and rules on how to use it responsibly to increase your score on my site)](https://sikkanam.com/use-credit-cards-to-improve-cibil-score-get-cheaper-loans/) + +&#x200B; + +**How can you make use of this?** + +**If you are a parent with kids in college:** When your kids enter their undergraduate studies, get a credit card in their name with that 10k limit. By the time they finish it and want to go abroad for higher studies, they would have a decent CIBIL score which would help them get cheaper education loans for their masters abroad. \[CIBIL score is linked to PAN, so make sure they have a PAN as well\] + +If they decided to get a house, later on, their CIBIL scores should be well above 780 or at least close by, if they have spent responsibly. + +&#x200B; + +You can even reduce the credit card limit for them in the app \[even though the limit reported to CIBIL would be 10,000\] in case you don't trust them to use it responsibly. + +&#x200B; + +**If you have just entered work:** You would probably look for a housing loan or a personal loan for wedding expenses. Having a credit card and using it responsibly would let you rack up your CIBIL score which lets you get cheaper loans. + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR;** If you ever plan to take a loan in the future, you need to have a great CIBIL score to get cheaper loans. And since you can only generate a CIBIL score if you take a loan, credit cards are an easy way to generate and improve your CIBIL score, but only if you are able to use them responsibly. + +If you don't have a payslip, you can get an FD backed credit card from Axis, SBI, BoB, ICICI, or Kotak to generate that sweet CIBIL score. (~~AFAIK, no other bank has an FD backed credit card option and~~ it is useful for those who aren't eligible for an unsecured credit card) + +&#x200B; + +Edit: One more important point in favor of using FD backed credit cards or FD backed overdraft limits is that they are secured loans which are preferred by CIBIL and will likely improve your credit score further! +I’m out. I saw a report today showing how much I’ve lost over the last ten years and I’m choosing to ride off into the sunset with my tail between my legs. + +I’ve traded on and off for about ten years. Success was always right around the corner. I had some really good stretches. + +I’m lucky that is not catastrophic and I have enough to live, but seeing that number made me feel as stupid as I’ve ever felt. + +Hats off to all of you who can make it work. Best of luck to all! +Over the weekend I've seen at least 10 VDHG posts in that fucking sad sub. They are so concerned about the underlying assets, small price movements, and MER on funds that averages something like 7% per year. Every damn post is VDHG or where to get the best interest rate on a savings account. + +I subbed to ASX_Bets for the higher risk and reward. The soft cocks over on the other sub seem to be unwilling tolerate any risk at all, yet think they are high and mighty being in VDHG, and dishing out investing advice to any redditors in their sub (all in VDHG). Shits me to tears. + +I love this sub, please don't change my fellow autists. +So, for 6 months I was working very hard to create an algo. And then something happened that made me quit... + +I began my journey by applying a simple machine learning technique. It gave me great returns. So I go excited! + +Later I found out that there was a thing called bid ask. And with it the algo would get shitty results. + +Then I had a very interesting and creative idea. I worked hard... I searched for the average bid ask and just to be safe, assumed that all my trades had double that value + some commissions. + +I achieved a yearly gain of 1000%! And sometimes even more, consistently. The data was from 2010-2016, so not updated. But that got me really excited. I I was sure I would become a millionaire! I found the secret. + +Then I went for more recent data. And downloaded companies from sp500 and other big ones. This time, however, the gain wasn’t so Amazing. Not only that, but I would end up losing money with this algo at some years. + +So why suddenly my 10x yearly return machine wasn’t working anymore? + +Well, the difference was on the dataset. The 1st dataset had 5k companies! While the other around 1k. + +I found out that my algo would select companies with a very low volume. I then found out that the bid ask for those was companies was crazy high, many times above 5%. + +I didn’t give up! + +I rewrote another huge algo, but this time only sp500 companies! And they must belong to sp500 at that specific time! + +More than that, I gathered data from 1995. + +I tested my new algo, and now something amazing was happening, I was having crazy gains again!!! Not so crazy as before but around 100-200% yearly. +I made the program run from 1995. + +And the algo would use all its previous data from that day. And train the machine learning algo for each day. It took a long time... + +Anyway, I let it run, feeling confident. But then, when it reach the year 2013, I started just losing money. And it just got worse... + +So I thought. Maybe using data from 1995 to train a model in 2013 won’t make sense. Better to just consider that last few days. + +This in fact improved the results. I realized that the stock market is not like physics. There are no universal formulas, it is always changing. + +So my idea of learning from the previous x days seemed genius. I would always adapt. and it is in fact a good idea that worked better. + +Then I tried it in the present times and it didn’t go very well. + +But why did it work for the year 200 and not for 2020? + +Then it came to me: because the stock market is a competition! And even an algo competition. Back in 2000 the ml techniques were way less advanced. So I was competing with the AI from 20 years ago! That’s not fair. Also, back in the day they didn’t have this amount of data. The market wasn’t as efficient. + +I also found out that my algo was kinda good with smallish companies, but bad with huge ones such as Microsoft. The reason: there is more competition. So the market is much more efficient. It is easier to find patterns in smaller companies. + +However the bid ask will usually be bigger. So you are kinda fucked. +It is very hard to find the edge. + +I built another algo. Simpler, no AI this time. It was able to work the best. Yearly gains 60-150% yearly. What was the problem then? Well too have these gains I would have to invest 100% of my money. + +I tried with 50% or sharing between 2 stocks, and it was still great. But with 33% it stopped being great. I ran with slight altered parameters and it chose a stock that lost 70% in one day (stamps). And it wasn’t such a small company. + +So here I become aware of the low probability risks. And how investing 100% is a very dangerous idea. You just lose everything you had gained for years. + +I have to admit that this strategy is actually kinda good. The best I created so far. And could have a bit potential. But would need some refinement. + +... + +So far I gave many reasons why I would give up. But here’s the one that made me quit: +-what works today may become obsolete tomorrow. + +It’s a risk you are taking. In the real world not only it may get worse. But you find out that you didn’t account enough for the slippage. + +Why would I risk, when I can invest normally and still have 8% gains. While if I do algo trading you won’t get a big difference from the market (probably). The diference is that the algo is probably riskier. + +My other problem is how I can compete? There are literally companies that have teams of PhDs doing this stuff. How can I compete? And they have access to data I don’t. + +It’s an unfair game. And the risk is too high for me. I prefer the classical way now. Less stress and probably better results. + +PS: but if you believe you have a nice strategy do not give up! What didn’t work with me may work with you. This is just my xp. + +Also my strategy would be short term no long term. +Thank you all for the enthusiastic response of my previous post. ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pxcw4z/for\_people\_with\_100m\_nw\_how\_do\_you\_manage\_your/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pxcw4z/for_people_with_100m_nw_how_do_you_manage_your/)) It was a good place to share and organize my thoughts anonymously. It is an interesting journey to grow my net worth from scratch to $100M+. But it's not all rainbows and unicorns. I have some real struggles since I had my first windfall. I am no philosopher but it's hard to live with what I have without thinking through some hard questions about life. When you have a goal to reach $10M+ NW for fatFirers, it's pretty straightforward to work hard and to save hard to reach that goal. But if you are at $30M already, what's the point of going for another 3X or for another extra zero? Most people can live a very luxurious life with $300K a year but now I can afford to spending $1M a year, should I go for it? + +&#x200B; + + I am sure this group is filled with strivers who are hardwired to achieve. But what happens afterwards? Do you still work on the same job and keep climbing the ladder? What do you really want to do with your life? Being a corporate slave is probably not the answer for most people but being completely free and independent is HARD. You have to rebuild the structure, routine, social network and the identity that was centered around the work self. Most people want to focus on something that gives them meaning, purpose and self-mastery but where can people get that after they become FI? I didn't have a place to go after FI. It's after years of struggle that I settled on investing but that was not an easy transition and still isn't. I will share some of my thoughts in the subsequent posts and I would love to hear people's thoughts on this, especially people who have the same struggles. + +The loss of status is another challenge. I thought I was not very status driven but I realize people are status driven. I don't walk around with my net worth plastered to my forehead. But once I lost that prestigious corporate title, I feel I am no longer respected. People were less interested in talking to me and old friends from the company kinda disappeared. It shouldn't have been a surprise but I thought people respect me for me. It's quite an adjustment. Being an investor certainly helps relieve that. People are pitching me to give them money so of course they are very respectful. I think I know the game a bit better now and my naivete was just laughable. + +I want to write about one post a week in the subsequent weeks to cover topics people might be interested about FatFIRE and to write down thoughts that would help me think. Here are the topics that are on the top of my mind. Feel free to suggest more topics: + +* Investment and Portfolio Management +* Expenses and Living with No Financial Constraints +* Work and Purpose +* Time and Routine +* Keeping a Low-Profile +* Relationships are Complicated +* Staying Grounded +* I am NOT a Superman. + +\---------------------------------------------- + +I wish some of you will enjoy these posts but I am really writing them for me. I am sure when I look back 10 years later on these posts, I will be embarrassed but it's good to keep the records of my current state of mind. I will have to obfuscate some details about myself to not reveal my identity because you know, I want to be candid and intellectually honest here. +Everyone says to learn a trade. Except most tradesmen, not all, will tell you to stay in school. Why does reddit have a fetish with the skilled trades? +[I'm reading that the total **external debt** of the Soviet Union was only $66B around 1991.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Soviet_Union) Furthermore, the total GDP or GNP of the Soviet Union was about $2.2T in 1985 in the same link. + +This means that the total external debt to GNP was only 3%. This is nothing at all, and shouldn't warrant a nation to collapse this spectacularly. + +* What was the other underlying issues going on with their economy to cause it to fail this spectacularly? + +* The Soviet economy was described as being a "command-based economy." Then why couldn't they just make it a "non-command" based economy and exist as the USSR without disintegrating? Or alternatively, **re-enact the "New Economic Plan," which was implemented in the early '20s under Lenin**? + +* Why didn't the constituent republics not fight to uphold the Soviet Union, but instead, they all just accepted their fate. Were their leaders from prior to 1991 hand-picked as being more amenable to a potential Soviet dissolution? Another words, were the leaders of the 16 different Soviet States hand-picked by VP George Bush (who was leading the CIA at one time) and/or one of his colleagues (like Kissinger)? + +* Why didn't the constituent nations not think about forming nations amongst themselves with or without Russia? For example: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan could have all formed one Turkic nation with an Islamic background. + +It seems that once the former Soviet States became almost alienated from each other, and moreover, today's younger Russians know nothing about the Old Bolsheviks or Peter Kropotkin. Even Putin has said some disparaging things about Lenin. I believe that Russia has spent the last 22 years to "De-Sovietize." +I've started dividend investing in September of 2020, at the age of 15. 5 Months later and I reached my first investing goal of reaching $1000 in portfolio value, generating $40 annually. Now, this may not seem like a lot but as a high school student who doesn't have a job and saving allowances from my parents, it's a start. The purpose of this post is to tell the people who may not have a lot of money to invest like me to not give up, I know that it may seem pointless to invest such a small sum of money but with time it will grow and just let time do the work for you. I hope this post inspires at least a single person to start investing, even if it is a small amount of money. Remember, the hardest part is getting started. +Edit: lot of questions. On my next post I'll try update the FAQs because I'm getting the same questions all the time. I would try answer them but busy with work now. + +Yeee Haw. EGR Got me from 10 to 12 in a day. That was dumb luck but still. + +Bought 8500 shares at 0.645 and managed to sell for a sold 0.92, 42%. Bring the total to $7800. + +I'll release an update when I figure out the next buy. Buy Price will be approx 7500 and selling approx 9000. + +&#x200B; + +[Trade History](https://preview.redd.it/1cbj92ovdcg61.png?width=567&format=png&auto=webp&s=d14cd400b3bd084977ac317bdc2ecb4a24f77b51) + +FAQ: + +WTF are you doing? + +Trying to turn 1k into 1M by 40 consecutive trades by cashing out at 20% gain and reinvesting the lot. + +Why? + +Only risking 1k. + +CGT? + +Future me problem, trade 20ish me, will have to figure something out. + +Autism Levels? + +Max Power + +What if stock goes sideways, down ways, backways or rear ways? + +Sell and rebuy at next closest stage +Remember when we said, “What if Robinhood started trading paper Bitcoin without holding actual Bitcoin?”. This is what happens when a dishonest company needs more capital fast and the chances of your RH BTC positions being non-collateralized have literally never been higher. Further, the chances of RH failing as a company have never been higher. + +Look into the faces of the young CEOs who made their fortunes by deceiving retail investors and selling them out via order flow. Do you really want to let these guys hold your BTC? + +For the next 24 hours I will personally answer any questions that any of you may have about liquidating your RH positions and getting into a real exchange or decentralized marketplace (like BISQ) + +Do the right thing because it’s also the smart thing and because you low key always knew you should have been +I've been considering investing in some rental properties, but after doing the math I don't see how they're worth it... but I'm assuming I'm missing something. + + +If a good return on your rental property investment is about 10% (this is just what I've read a few places online) and the building appreciates at roughly 4% per year, your investment has made you about 14% per year. + + +If you invest that same money into safe stocks/ETFs with 3-4% Div/yield and the market increase by around 10% each year you're essentially making the same amount of money with a lot less work and greater diversification in your investment. + + +So what am I missing? Is the normal return on rental properties actually higher than that 10%, or is it something else? + + +Thank you for any insights or feedback! +[https://www.cbpp.org/growth-in-purchasing-power-of-workers-wages-and-benefits-has-not-kept-pace-with-productivity-0](https://www.cbpp.org/growth-in-purchasing-power-of-workers-wages-and-benefits-has-not-kept-pace-with-productivity-0) +AND THE PRICE NEVER DROPPED?? + +CAN THIS STOCK GET ANY MORE BULLISH?? + +This shows how gamestop **cares** about us. They could've sold in the future when the price would be higher to make even more money but they didn't so that it doesn't cancel the short squeeze. They would rather take less profit and contribute to the squeeze. + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/gamestop-shares-jump-after-the-reddit-favorite-raises-more-than-500-million-in-stock-sales.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/26/gamestop-shares-jump-after-the-reddit-favorite-raises-more-than-500-million-in-stock-sales.html) + +CNBC on our side?? What is this? + +"[GameStop](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GME)’s stock price climbed in extended trading Monday after the video game retailer said it sold 3.5 million additional shares, raising $551 million to speed up the company’s e-commerce transformation." + +They literally sold their 3.5 millions shares and we didn't even feel the drop, hell all we are seeing is green. These guys are **legends.** + +They erased their debt and now they have half a billion dollars in capital which will be reinvested in the company. I've never been this hyped about GME for some time. + +The market at open tomorrow will be wild, could this week be the moment we've all been waiting for? Only time will tell... + +If it is, hold strong in the 300$-1000$ region, this will be the real test and will be the takeoff leading to the a short squeeze. Expect a bumby ride. + +Edit: Sorry I said in the title the debt was 300M but it was around 226M and i can't change it +I put the flair as losses, because it literally is a fucking loss. I thought, eh, why not. I’ll buy their bullshit advice for a year, see what they’re about.. + +They’re about nothing. Almost $600, and their advice is just about 2-4 emails a day, trying to sell other advice plans. All quoting the same bullshit figures they use to sell their other groups. + +So don’t be the dumbfuck I was 🤣 +Hi all, + + +For this situation, I put the starting amount, P, as 140,000. +The time, N, is 45 (years) +The return rate, R, is 8% +There is also an additional contribution of $1,000 each month during the 45 years. + + +For some background... +I am 17 years old and a junior in high school. I have a strong interest in construction and electrical. It is a high-paying job already, and with the decrease of blue-collar jobs, will be in severe demand in the future. After completion of high school, most students attend college, and then get a job, and retire. I have absolutely nothing against that, but am very young, and want to ensure I consider all options for my future. One of those options is the following... +After high school, attend a trade school for construction and/or electrical. I will pay around $10,000 for a 1-year course. After that, I will join the workforce and make around $130-150,000 after some years. The first few will obviously be lower until I get a promotion. + + +The major element of the "background" though is a deal I have with my parents. I am incredibly appreciative of them, and they are very generous. The deal is the following... +There is $150,000 set aside for my post-high school studies, whether that is college, university, or trade school. The only requirement is that I have to successfully graduate. If I go over the $150,000, I am responsible to pay for it all. If I go under the $150,000, I collect the remaining $ and do anything I want with it. + + +The current option I am looking into is attending trade school right out of high school, then working there for many years, hopefully ranking up and eventually owning my own company. I plan on investing all of the $140,000 (150,000-trade school). I will leave the money in a very conservative long-term fund and let it sit, collecting interest, over the years. When I retire at age 65, I will have been working for 45 years, and the initial $140,000 would be a lot more now. Doing a simple calculation found that if I invested the money for 45 years at an average 8% return, and simultaneously contributed $1,000 per month, the total at age 65 would be an astonishing $9,274,629.89. To some people, that doesn't even seem like that much $. But to me, that is more than I ever know how to spend. I even created a simple spreadsheet to make a super vague future financial plan, and spent around $5,000,000, between luxury housing, cars, a boat, and plenty of vacation, while giving some away. I bought a Rolls Royce, range rover, F-150, Ferrari, Tesla, 2 motorcycles, a $900,000 boat, 2 jet-ski's, a vacation house in St. Thomas, $400,000 in fun spending money for me, a $1.2 million house, $500,000 in bills and taxes, and $200,000 in vacations. So basically I have everything I have ever dreamed of. With these luxuries, I will still have $4,335,000 remaining. + + +I would like to know if this is truly how easy it is, to let it sit, and work during the time. Is my calculation correct, or have I missed an incredibly important factor here that will disrupt these plans? + + +I also want to make it clear that I understand there is a 1% chance this will happen how I envision it. I understand that many of the things I have said are subject to change, may not happen at all, etc. The 8% return I selected will almost definitely be wrong since its impossible to predict the market. There is a chance the return will be lower or higher. Maybe I cannot afford $1,000 per month. Maybe I don't truly follow through with the construction studies. Maybe I get arrested, hope not. Maybe I lose everything in a storm. The point is that nothing here is firm whatsoever. I am once again, very young, and want to explore each and every option before I make any eliminations. For this specific situation, please use the figures I have listed. + + +Is this truly correct? Can I retire and have nearly $10 million? + + +Thank you all! + + +P.s +I live in Long Island, New York. So if the numbers seem high, it is because everything costs a load over here. +I just thought I'd throw this out here as I'm seeing a ton of panic given the recent price drop. + +I got into crypto with Doge when it got super popular on Reddit and was massively pumped. I mined a bunch and put in ~ $2000 into purchasing Doge. Then the pump crashed and at some point, all of my mined + purchased Doge was worth only $200-$400 (depending on fluctuations). + +I wrote it off as a learning lesson but I also decided to keep all my Doge just to see how things panned out in the long run. I was willing to take the risk of losing even more money on it. Frequently, I was tempted to cash out to recover whatever little money I could, but I kept HODLING. + +~ 3 years later, Bitcoin boomed (last month) and so did the value of Doge. My $2K + mined coins were now worth ~ $9K! I cashed out, and bought into ETH. + +Think about this for a second... DOGE didn't even have any tech behind it to back up any belief that it would ever recover, and yet it did. ETH on the other hand is exciting from a tech standpoint and is bound to be big. If you believe in the tech, it's a complete no brainer to hold. 1 - 3 years from now, this will all just be noise and a blip on your radar. + +HODL strong my friend. Nothing I have seen has led me to believe that Eth is fundamentally flawed or that it will never rise many fold over the $400 mark in the long run. Don't let posts of people selling high and buying low throw you off. For every person who timed it right, there is another that didn't and is regretting their decisions. Go out, enjoy life and realize that in the long run, all this volatility won't likely matter. Cheers. + +PS - And remember... whatever you do, do not put more into crypto than you can afford to lose. + +But I am scared. And I will still have enough cash to last me 6months after this. You guys - say something to make me brave. Was raised to stay away from stock market so this is hard. +Netflix crashes for the 2nd time this year + +was pushing 700 now like 236 + +I never bought it because it was always insanely valued, which made no sense with the plethora of competition gaining ground. + +Any company that was a pandemic gainer is falling in sympathy, like Roblox down 11.5% + +Basically this is a wakeup call for a lot of people I think, that the pandemic spending is over and people's wallets are starting to get pinched from food/gas/inflation + +What boggles my mind is that time and again people "over project" gains into the future.  When you look at the ridiculous runups on various stocks all based on the pandemic and stay-at-home, low interest rates lasting forever.  Talking about ridiculous price run-ups for things like Moderna, Clorox, Papa John's, Peloton, Roblox, Zillow, Zoom, etc..  I wonder if people even cared what the companies were worth or they were just plain old momentum trading. + +The same thing happens in reverse btw.  At the bottom in 2002 and 2009 when stocks were cratering, there was no price too low.  For most people stocks were too risky and that was that. +My grandparents (80 and 85, Georgia) get phonecalls from "the Department of Treasury" letting them know they have won $xxx, xxx and all they need to do is send $1000 to some person for "taxes" and then they will receive the money. + +To my knowledge, they have sent $30k in total. + +The situation at hand: my grandma got a letter saying she won $4.5 Million from "Mega Million" and she has to put up $150k (the lottery fund is putting up $250k "on her behalf") and then she will get 4.5M. She also is told she will receive a 2017 Mercedes. She is awaiting a loan for the 150k to come through. + +She is keeping this as secret as possible from her two children (50s). I do not know what to do. My grandparents are okay financially, but this loan would be an extreme hardship. + +Things we have tried (as a family): +- blocking phone numbers on their phones +- calling the scammers ourselves +- showing them Google searches that indicate the phone numbers belong to scammers +- having friends in the police come to their house and read the letters and give their opinion + +Clearly nothing is working. Any advice would be great, thank you. +WELCOME BACK TO THE CRYPTO COMBAT CHAMPIONSHIP! The fifth and final round in the openweight mixed martial arts cryptocurrency world championship match is just about to begin. ULTRASAFE, going an impressive 7-0 so far in the tournament, is deep into a brutal war of hellacious combat attrition with the undefeated, undisputed, reigning, MACRO-MARKET (97-0). + +Let’s get back to the action. The two fighters touch gloves, and HERE WE GO! + +MACRO-MARKET PLODS FOREWARD THROWING HEAT! + +ULTRASAFE SLIPS THE RED-CANDLE RIGHT HOOK! DODGES THE BITCOIN DIP HEADKICK! STUFFS THE FUD TAKEDOWN! + +OHH NOO! + +A VICIOUS MACRO-MARKET CROSS HAS LANDED FLUSH ON ULTRASAFE! HES WOBBLED! HE LOOKS HURT! HOW WILL HE RECOVER! + +MACRO-MARKET LOOKS PRIMED FOR THE GROUND-AND-POUND FINISH! + +OH MY GOD! WHO JUST JUMPED INTO THE CAGE?!! WHAT’S THIS?!! + +IS THAT....CHAMP-CHAMP DANIEL CORMIER, RENOWN COMBAT SPORTS LEGEND, HOST, ANALYST, AND COMMENTATOR? WHAT IN THE WORLD IS HE DOING IN THERE! HE’S STILL IN HIS RINGSIDE COMMENTARY SUIT! + +HE’S JUST DOUBLE LEGGED THE MACRO-MARKET!! OH MY GOD WHAT A BRUTAL SLAM! NOW HE’S TAKEN THE BACK! WHAT’S THIS? ULTRASAFE HAS THROWN A VICIOUS HEADKICK TO THE DOWNED MACRO-MARKET? IS THIS PRIDE RULES? WHAT IS HAPPENING? + +LOOKS LIKE CORMIER IS GOING FOR THE REAR NAKED CHOKE....HE’S GOT IT FOLKS, THATS TIGHT! MACRO-MARKET HAS TAPPED! + +ULTRASAFE AND DANIEL CORMIER ARE THE UNDISPUTED CRYPTO COMBAT CHAMPIONSHIP OPENWEIGHT WORLD CHAMPIONS! Is this even allowed? We’ll have to consult the athletic commission, but who cares. LET’S HEAR IT FOR ULTRASAFE! + +Crypto World Title matches aside...UltraSafe is extremely proud to welcome Daniel Cormier onto our team. We are beyond excited for the value that such a legendary athlete can bring to our community! +So this is probably going to be downvoted, but I have always wanted some feedback on my opinion: + +In my experience, most people act completely retarded when it comes to finances. While I have always tried to restrain my spendings in an attempt to acquire wealth, almost everyone I know does the following: + +- Buy/maintain a car, even when they still pay rent, and regardless of whether moving closer to their workplace would be cheaper. Walking to work a mile or two has become inacceptable. + +- Rent, when buying is cheaper. + +- Buy insane amounts of gadgets/stuff. + +So they continue to make all these payments, all of which end up in the hands of wealthier people. + +I guess I shouldn't be complaining, because I am working my way up the ladder at increasing pace, so they'll effectively pay me as well. But those same people later complain about the widening of the gap between rich and poor, and cry for more taxes for the wealthy. + +Until you own your own place, owning a car and buying non-essentials should be off limits (unless you need a car for health reasons or something). Personal finance needs to be made a part of basic education. +Hey everyone, just a mere anon degen here. Every once in a while an investment opportunity comes up that is so exciting you can’t help but share it. So hi. Hear me out :) (not financial advice) + +PinkPanda DeFi launched just a week ago and are building a mobile app for 5x leveraged trading on BSC. That’s cool, but can they deliver? Well apparently yes! Since they’ve released the first version of their app after only a week! + +What’s more, PinkPanda has MASSIVE meme appeal. You should see the DELUGE of memes on Twitter about PinkPanda. Plus, influencers are going crazy about it. Moneytalk, FinanceBull, Stiggybuys, Natethewinner, etc. the list goes on and on. There are even rumors that a collab with Tyler Hill is already in the works. + +And then the most important reason imo. The community is absolutely nuts. These fucking pandas eat dip like they’re STARVING and have hands made of goddamn solid diamond. Constant shilling, all over the internet. Idk what’s gonna happen over the next few weeks but one thing I know is the panda community will take everything over imo tbqh. Here’s one of the popular battle cry of the panda army: “WEN BAMBOO.” When a poor telegram server hears this batty cry, they quake in fear knowing that the panda army will come to burn their women and rape their churches. + +TG:@PinkPandaDeFi + +Website: pinkpanda.finance +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +It's 2020 and they're charging you a maintenance fee and a high trade fee, if you want to trade overseas stocks you'll also be slapped with a hefty FX fee. Oh have i mentioned that their ISA has a very limited stock offering? I remember calling them asking to buy CD projekt in 2018 after 10 minutes on of being transferred they said that it's not available at this time. + +It's 2020 are they really relying on high net worth's and the elderly to keep them afloat? +What are they getting out of it? I'm asking because I found a virus in a project I downloaded yesterday. I've also learned almost everything I know about programming through Github. I have trouble systematically reading through a manual and prefer to learn by example. + +UPDATE: I did a scan on virustotal. Result: + +https://preview.redd.it/ds7ws6gcbld61.jpg?width=1661&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d4595ae02baf99369ae91585b74049e25ba409d1 +To the Gen X'ers, Boomers, and those from the silent generation that are here -- are we headed for a complete financial crash? As a Millennial, I wasn't really old enough to understand or pay attention to the Dot Com crash or the Mortgage collapse. However, even during those times, Labor Force Participation rate was comparably high. Today it is the lowest it has been since 1977 (other than a brief period right when COVID hit). I have already begun to notice supermarket shelves are emptier than they were just several months ago. The price of my Dog's food is up 50% in the past 14 months. Fed is now projecting no rate decreases through 2023, higher than expected inflation, CPI, and unemployment figures (adding fuel to the low labor force participation rate) through not only 2023 but also 2024. The S&P is down 22% from its highs (NASDAQ over 30%). Stocks still trading at historically high multiples, despite lousy earnings reports more than likely incoming. Russia seems willing to win the war in Ukraine at all costs. Things escalating between China/Taiwan and the west. The two party system in the US is more hostile and broken than at any point in my lifetime. COVID still isn't over. + + +Am I crazy? Have things ever seemed this dismal in the past? Are we on the verge of some sort of reckoning? +I'm 19 years old and live in London, UK. Some time within the next year I'll have to move out of my family house to live with my boyfriend. + +I have a trustfund of roughly £160k with which I've been recommended to take out a mortgage for a flat with, but I don't know the process of this or whether this is a financially good idea. This will also have to be in or around London due to my education not finishing for another 2 years which I'm aware is more costly. + +My boyfriend is in fulltime education and not in a situation where he can work so all costs will fall to me. I'm in college part time and currently work 2 part time jobs which net me roughly £800 a month. + +Are there any good resources or advice people can give me for my situation? Any help would be greatly appreciated. +**TL;DR: GME is a safe haven asset with strong fundamentals and a demand that will only be increasing post-split. The economic factors associated with GME will inevitably beget MOASS, and ultimately pave the way for a potential GME price per share in the millions.** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Recommended Prerequisite DD: + +1. [SHFs Can & Will Get Margin Called](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vrwfjt/shfs_can_will_get_margin_called/) +2. [Burning Cash](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0zrni/burning_cash/) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Economic Principles of GameStop + +§1: Supply & Demand Analysis + +§2: Stock Split (In the Form of a Dividend) + +§3: GameStop's Fundamentals + +§4: GME as a Store of Value + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**§1: Supply & Demand Analysis** + +The supply and demand factors of GameStop can be demonstrated with a few simplistic models. + +We all know the basic market dynamics that shape prices in a microeconomic setting, but in the [case](https://imgur.com/a/Zcjn2k6) of GameStop, we're constricted by heavy SHF manipulation. + +We can consider this constraint imposed by SHFs as a price ceiling. + +Now, generally, when we have a price ceiling, we'd be facing a circumstance as illustrated by the following graph: + +[Price equilibrium is denoted by P\^E & price ceiling is denoted by P\^C.](https://preview.redd.it/463k8h748cc91.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6a4b0b6404bb862a7543c4b78f2ed1f4107b515) + +In essence, the price is not being allowed to move any higher; this is comparable to GME being forced below critical margin levels. However, unlike the general model, there is no shortage of shares. There *is* a shortage of real shares, but not synthetics. SHFs can combine covered calls and married puts to create a synthetic share ([see Fidelity's webinar presentation on synthetics for further details](https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SyntheticOption_Webinar.pdf)). This is why registering your GME shares makes matters more costly and difficult for SHFs in the long run. And in the event all shares get accounted for (the free float gets locked), MOASS would ignite, as there would no longer be room for fake shares to exist when every GME share has been publicly and visibly recorded. Although, the MOASS would most likely take place well before then. + +We can obtain further confirmation of price suppression (and a SHF imposed price ceiling), by analyzing DRS rates. + +Computershare accounts have only been increasing since nearly an entire year. + +[Courtesy of Ape \\"8ate8\\"](https://preview.redd.it/reuyhg5d8cc91.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7ca21dd986a302c41fde1f1f88a37af8c4dd9e2) + +Same with DRS'ed shares. These are the number of registered shares since the past month. + +[computershared.net](https://preview.redd.it/dyrkrslj8cc91.png?width=1205&format=png&auto=webp&s=714a23e0a046ba2735191b3c5e5234975dcadd7f) + +Since September 2021, Apes have registered over 16 million GME shares, yet instead of the price steadily increasing along with DRS rates increasing, it has steadily been going down in the long-term (this is because of SHF price suppression and because their critical margin levels have continued to slowly decrease over time). The current GME price movement is inconsistent with a stock that is actively being directly registered, and especially when registration rates are increasing per quarter (as confirmed by GameStop's most [recent 10Q](https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/5df55006-ebe2-478e-8058-d88a7b5b3d88)). As such, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that there is heavy price suppression from SHFs, which is algorithmically constraining GME from reaching legitimate price discovery. + +Synthetics, IOUs, dark pool manipulation, short ladder attacks, spoofing, FTDs, and a variety of other means of manipulation are used to prevent the price from surpassing the SHF imposed price ceiling (aka critical margin levels). + +When the time comes for SHFs to close all their short positions, whether it be due to DRS, failed margin calls, etc., or a SHF is being liquidated and the DTCC computers kick in to close all short positions, the shares will need to be bought at whatever price. + +In this case, we're dealing with a perfectly inelastic demand and relatively inelastic supply. The supply is relatively inelastic, as it's being obstinately held (as well as directly registered). + +The following graph illustrates this circumstance: + +[Perfectly inelastic demand meets relatively inelastic supply](https://preview.redd.it/y8he6fso8cc91.png?width=1118&format=png&auto=webp&s=11dcb0d4a9defbb7a91948bd594b6452cb249fd2) + +As you can see, no matter how high the price goes, the demand stays the same, because the shares *must* be bought, regardless of the price. The price ceiling would not only be lifted, but the one's that imposed the price ceiling (SHFs) would be forced to buy back every share at whatever the price, in order to close their short positions \[DTCC would take over closing the positions upon default of a clearing member\]. This scenario is a nightmare for SHFs, though an inevitability, as their price suppression on GME is unsustainable in the long-term. + +Now, let's take a look at an example of a situation where there was relatively inelastic demand and supply. Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency that had originally started as a fraction of a penny grew to a currency worth a solid 5 figures. Bitcoin was not heavily shorted by SHFs, unlike GME. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange didn't even introduce derivative trading on Bitcoin up until it had already hit 5 figures. + +It has an inelastic supply cap at 21 million, millions of which haven't been mined or had been lost. + +FOMO was the sole driver that increased Bitcoin's value by 100,000,000%+. + +In the case of GameStop, not only will FOMO start playing a more visible role once the synthetics get closed, but because SHFs need to close ALL their short positions, this will pose a situation much more destructive than Bitcoin's 100,000,000%+ increase. Bitcoin's increase came from relatively inelastic demand. There were many buying and holding the coin, but it was their choice. In the case of GME, SHFs MUST buy the shares. As such, demand will be *perfectly* inelastic. They have no choice but to buy the shares, because they need to close all their positions. Considering this, as well as the fact that there's at least [200% outstanding GME shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxljfb/the_numbers_are_in_mountains_of_gme_synthetic/) (something Bitcoin never had, as it was built on blockchain), in addition to the fact that there's countless Apes refusing to sell their shares no matter what, and comparing the GME MOASS to Bitcoin's 100,000,000%+ increase may ultimately be understating the yield of the MOASS. + +The supply of available GME shares for SHFs to close their short positions will be logarithmic. FOMO alone would take GME to the 4-5 figure range (this is confirmed by the SEC Report \[which stated the 100x Jan 2021 run was from FOMO\] as well as IBKR Chair Peterffy last year). When short positions start getting closed, the paper hands' shares will be the easiest for SHFs to obtain, but as SHFs keep buying the shares, the last 50+ or so million will be almost impossible. After all the paper hands are gone, SHFs will be still need to buy ALL the shares, and the final tens of millions will need to be bought from pure-blood diamond handed Apes. If you'd like to get a sample of who are the pure-blood diamond handed Apes, take a look at whose registering their shares. Diamond Handed Apes aren't going through the process of registering their shares for Mickey Mouse numbers. They demand phone number prices. This is why the more time goes on, the higher DRS numbers increase, and the more explosive MOASS will be. + +Diamond Handed Apes are what will take the price of GME from $100,000 straight to the millions during MOASS. After all the paper hands are gone, SHFs will be left with diamond handed Apes, and since they must close ALL their short positions, they have no choice but to purchase shares from diamond handed Apes at whatever the price. And if diamond handed Apes refuse to sell until the price surpasses their accepted floor (for instance, the floor on [gmefloor.com](https://gmefloor.com)), then the DTCC must obtain shares at these prices in order to close out the short positions. + +A GME price in the millions is more than possible, due to the [geometric mean as well as synthetic shares.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/t3zp4h/we_are_unstoppable/) + +**§2: Stock Split (In the Form of a Dividend)** + +[According to GameStop's 8K on July 6, 2022](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638022000100/gme-20220706.htm), GameStop announced a 4:1 stock split in the form of a dividend. The 3 additional shares will be distributed "after the close of trading on July 21, 2022". + +I originally discussed in my [Checkmate DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/txnwhu/checkmate/) how I consider the stock split (in the form of a dividend) to be a catalyst for MOASS. Regardless of what happens, RC's decision to implement a stock split dividend is a very powerful move, and will greatly benefit Apes post-split. + +Firstly, I argued how the stock split dividend would be a catalyst based on the following logic: + +Premise 1: Synthetic shares were created. + +Premise 2: The stock split dividend will need to be given to ALL shares, real or synthetic. + +Premise 3: There exists only enough dividends for the real shares, not synthetics. + +Conclusion: Upon distribution of the stock split (in the form of the dividend) fake shares will be revealed (as there's not enough dividends to satisfy the synthetics). Therefore, someone, whether a broker or SHF, is going to be in big trouble. + +Furthermore, there's a limit to how many synthetics SHFs can create. If SHFs were capable of creating unlimited synthetics, GME would've been cellar boxed years ago. That, and they could've prevented the 100x GME rally leading to January 2021 altogether without needing to shut off the buy button (I also shouldn't have to remind you that removing the buy button created an insane amount of public backlash and chaos, and if unlimited synthetics could've been printed, all that could've been avoided to begin with). Hence, SHFs are not able to create unlimited synthetics. There's a limit to how many synthetics they can create. What that limit is, I don't entirely know. But there *must* be a limit. + +This would make a stock split dividend devastating to them. For example, say they can only create a maximum of 1 million synthetics a week, and now when the stock split (in the form of a dividend) gets announced, they need to come up with hundreds of millions of shares before it gets implemented. It's been about 4 months since it got announced, and now it's about to get implemented. Did they get enough time to come up with enough synthetics? I personally don't think so, but if somehow the stock split dividend does not become a catalyst and nothing happens when implemented, I will assume one of 3 things happened (or a combination of the 3): + +* Brokers gave IOUs instead of the dividends. +* SHFs used some sort of legal loophole around it that I wasn't aware of. +* SHFs came up with a fraction of the necessary synthetics to substitute the dividends and got help from brokers (and other loopholes) to take care of the rest. + +Here's the thing, though...if a broker does replace a dividend with an IOU, they are virtually guaranteeing themselves bankruptcy, so unless they were already anticipating going bankrupt, this would literally be a self-destructive decision. Maybe Robinhood would do it because they were already expecting to go bankrupt during MOASS, but I find it hard to believe that the brokers managing trillions would do it. But if they are found to having done just that, then take that as a sign that the MOASS will be much more nuclear than even I anticipated. + +As I explained in my [Checkmate DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/txnwhu/checkmate/), even if the stock split dividend isn't a catalyst for MOASS, it *will* subsequently increase demand for GME shares significantly: + +§1 of my Checkmate DD: "Let’s say that, hypothetically, there was some hidden loophole they took advantage of and were somehow able to evade sparking MOASS from the stock split. In that case, as we’d continue to patiently wait for MOASS, we’d find DRS rates to increase post-split. This is primarily because the stock split will increase demand in GME, and as such, increase demand for registered shares. + +The ticker price is a matter of perception. Retail investors are generally more inclined to purchase whole shares rather than fractional shares. Hence, registered shares would also increase post-split, especially the ones under “book”, as you can’t “book” a fractional. + +Simply put, not only will demand increase for GME shares post-split, but also the rate of registered shares. + +Example: You have $200, but the price of GME is $150. You can only purchase 1 share. 75% of your potential purchasing power has been utilized. A 7:1 split is introduced, bringing the price to approx. $21.43 per share. You can purchase 9 shares instead for approx. $192.87. Over 96% of your potential purchasing power has been utilized instead." + +Here’s a graph to better illustrate: + +https://preview.redd.it/mzmohaiu8cc91.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4904b2afac3169cacfe6ac9537a78009ca58442 + +Furthermore, as the current price gets divided by 4, so does the critical margin level. I'd consider $190 a solid level where SHFs could get margin called. Although the real level is lower, I prefer conservative estimates to be sure. And at $250 I'm virtually certain they'd get margin called. + +Well, at a price of $140, post-split price would be $35, and critical margin levels would be at $48. And I'd put absolutely guaranteed margin call levels at $63. With such low prices, the demand for shares will be significantly stronger, and as such, much harder for SHFs to contain below critical margin levels. Fun times ahead! + +**§3: GameStop's Fundamentals** + +To ascertain GameStop's future fundamental performance, I'll be utilizing the Cobb-Douglas production function. The Cobb-Douglas production function is used to represent the technological relationship between inputs and outputs. It's commonly used in the manufacturing industry, but has also been applied to a variety of companies. In the case for GameStop, this quantitative model can work by substituting the correct inputs. For instance, higher capital should yield higher output/productivity, and with that comes higher profit margins. The ratio of capital to productivity is not one-to-one, as we must take into account diminishing marginal returns, which the Cobb-Douglas production function does an excellent job at taking into account. + +The following slides are my analysis: + +https://preview.redd.it/xnehq0my8cc91.png?width=1359&format=png&auto=webp&s=26caeed3b4016a38a56daeb377c932d3d8ed502d + +https://preview.redd.it/h9fcjnyz8cc91.png?width=1355&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7b266db114c1b9f1b6e1768b55d5c0f350c6ce9 + +https://preview.redd.it/g9ywm0319cc91.png?width=1341&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccf45586883cc1a7f5bbc9fad62643b82c90d5d8 + +Research conducted by the [Harvard Business Review](https://hbr.org/2017/03/great-companies-obsess-over-productivity-not-efficiency) determined the best companies were 40% more productive than the rest, and their profit margins were, on average, 40% higher than industry peers. Simply put, productivity increases are comparable to profit margins increases. + +As for labor rates, I went off [Macrotrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/GME/gamestop/number-of-employees#:~:text=GameStop%20total%20number%20of%20employees,a%2012.5%25%20decline%20from%202019). Due note: even if labor rates were to decrease, it might not equate to less productivity, as the extra capital that comes from specific labor reductions could be used instead towards larger, more focused projects that could generate even more profit margins. It's not a straightforward evaluation. + +By no means am I expecting the production function to precisely pinpoint the exact productivity increase from GameStop (there is no quantitative model complex enough to take every single variable into account). However, consider this as a general model projecting a significant increase in productivity as time goes on. + +What the production function does not take into account is the NFT Marketplace, which will be playing a significant role in GameStop's fundamentals and profit margin increases going forward. + +I did point out the potential of the NFT Marketplace in §6 of my [2022: Year of the MOASS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/uf8pm6/2022_year_of_the_moass_8_reasons_why_soon/) DD, and will be reiterating it here. + +"The NFT Market was valued at $40 billion in 2021, [per Chainalysis Inc. report](https://content.techgig.com/technology-unplugged/nft-market-touched-40-billion-in-2021-new-estimate-shows/articleshow/88773041.cms). + +Considering GameStop’s market cap is valued at $10 billion, there’s a lot of potential revenue GameStop can tap into by entering this market. Not only that, but as time goes on and crypto/NFTs become more globalized, the NFT Market can easily exponentially increase in valuation, similarly to how Bitcoin did when it started getting adopted by institutions internationally as a store of value. + +OpenSea, currently the world’s largest NFT Marketplace, is valued over $13 billion, [according to Sephton at “CoinMarketCap Alexandria”](https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/opensea-now-has-a-valuation-of-13-3-billion). + +Yet, the OpenSea NFT Marketplace is incommensurable to the soon to be GME NFT Marketplace, due to a variety of reasons: + +1. OpenSea has extremely high gas fees, which deter business/revenue through their services and creates dead weight loss. +2. Weak security protocols. They have tons of vulnerabilities in their code that make them susceptible to attacks/thefts. Many examples in the past of OpenSea users suing the Marketplace for letting their NFTS get stolen by cyber thieves due to their “security vulnerabilities”. +3. GameStop gets nearly 1,000x more organic traffic via search engines than OpenSea does. + +GME succeeds where OpenSea fails, by utilizing its partnerships with Loopring & Immutable X to eliminate high gas fees as well as reinforce security, using Ethereum’s security rather than Polygon’s (etc.). GameStop’s NFT Marketplace will not only supersede, but augment the NFT Market as the dominant NFT Marketplace. + +That being said, GME’s market cap is already $10 billion. Say they get in the NFT Market in the summer and hit a valuation just half that of OpenSea this year. GME would end up with a high enough valuation putting itself past a $200 price. Maintaining a GME price past $200 would obliterate critical margin levels at this point, initiating MOASS. + +In case you haven’t noticed, something very big is gearing up this year, and I don’t think RC bought extremely OTM BBBY calls this year just for the fun of it." + +GameStop has already launched its Beta Stage of its NFT marketplace as of July 11, and so far it has already exceeded expectations: + +https://preview.redd.it/hx60lre39cc91.png?width=607&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d93120ceca3fc3cc49758342b396acc116552f6 + +\[[Link to tweet](https://twitter.com/GMEshortsqueeze/status/1546704254718681088?s=20&t=3TqmD-dZPxqn4x5MhxwQgw)\]. + +Due note that this is all with the marketplace simply in Beta Stage (or in this case, Phase 0): + +https://preview.redd.it/yure9mt59cc91.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=e369b339ca1e34ceb3cbad97c39475629b75b4e2 + +This marketplace is most certainly a game changer for GameStop, and so it's not surprising that the opposition is feeling threatened and will try to control growth in the GameStop NFT marketplace. + +In addition to negative MSM campaigns against the GameStop NFT marketplace, you can see that SHF owned companies, like the Motley Fool, have already dominated SEO for NFT Marketplace search results. + +For instance, if you search up "top nft marketplaces", the first thing that'll come up is the Motley Fool suggesting marketplaces. + +https://preview.redd.it/61293oh79cc91.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=b75d3254376e4f5bd0625282dfb9f9e0bec4f397 + +It's not surprising they'll be trying to control where prospective NFT marketplace customers go when they want to shop for NFTs. And due to their conflict of interests, they'd most likely use their SEO to try to sway people away from the GameStop NFT marketplace. + +Take this as a sign, however, that they genuinely find the GameStop NFT marketplace threatening, and with good reason, as the marketplace has the best chance of dominating the NFT Market and producing exceptional returns, which would undermine the extremely negative MSM sentiment against GME. + +Moreover, in addition to the GameStop NFT marketplace still being in Beta Stage, the potentially insanely large partnerships with blue chip companies have yet to be revealed: + +https://preview.redd.it/7rtn0ck99cc91.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=77bc30f22c69e31de71c9795a3fe26f47f0372bb + +**§4:GME as a Store of Value** + +To better understand why GME is an excellent store of value, let's start with the quantity theory of money, which demonstrates the relationships between prices and monetary policy. + +Quantity theory of money: MV = PY , where + +M = money supply + +V = velocity of money + +P = price level + +Y = aggregate output (aka real GDP) + +We can rearrange the formula to isolate P & get: P= (MV)/Y, which shows us that (in theory) if GDP falls, the price level should increase (inflation). This doesn't always work in practice, however, as we've seen historically with recessions in the U.S being concurrent with deflationary periods. This is because there's a variety of variables at play. In theory, inflation should happen during a recession, as when output drops, so does supply, and if demand stays the same, should trigger price increases/inflation. Though, a lot of the times consumption decreases during recessions, which ultimately negates that premise. + +In the case of 2022, however, as GDP drops, inflation is also rising, and it's only going to be getting worse, because in this instance, consumption doesn't actually decrease, but increases. We never saw the full effects quantitative easing had on the economy, because a lot of that stimulus money was invested in the market; hence, it never found its way in circulation with the money supply. But as the GDP drops and the stock market tanks, retail investors that didn't invest in the basket stocks, but instead invested in index funds, etc., will pull out that money from the market and most likely end up using it after storing the money for so long. According to a [survey with a 1,500 sample size conducted by Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2021/06/27/46-of-people-invested-their-stimulus-checks-in-the-stock-market/?sh=47e3cc4272f0), 46% of stimulus check recipients invested at least some of their stimulus checks. And, according to [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/05/26/stimulus-cheques-have-buoyed-americas-stockmarket), 10-15% of stimulus money was immediately invested in the stock market upon receiving it. Also, a [significant amount](https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/04/06/wall-street-wins-again-bailouts-time-coronavirus) of the $9 trillion stimulus injection went to bailing out Wall Street. So, as these overleveraged institutions deleverage, and as the recession continues, the stock market drops, and retail investors continue selling their index funds, most of that money will pour into the current circulating money supply and massively contribute to the ongoing inflation rate increase. + +This is the current inflation rate \[[source](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/#:~:text=The%20last%20column%2C%20%E2%80%9CAve%2C,year's%20actual%20rate%20of%20inflation)\]: + +https://preview.redd.it/rxqro7gb9cc91.png?width=533&format=png&auto=webp&s=3736eaf46685cf92ff3dced0e7e54fa859269c34 + +Due note that the current inflation rates are measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Policymakers at the Federal Reserve monitor inflation and use it when determining monetary policy, even though the CPI is inaccurate and most likely being understated. For example, the CPI doesn't take into account consumer spending shifts from assumed rates in the market basket, which they most likely have shifted (as per my previous explanation on investor stimulus checks and the GDP). + +Regardless, even if we go by CPI, at this rate it's detrimental to the value of the dollar. The deterioration of the USD that the Fed has failed to mitigate is only becoming a nightmare on a macroeconomic level. + +https://i.redd.it/bpa2qler9cc91.gif + +What has been the Fed's response? Rate hikes. + +The theory of liquidity preference demonstrates the relationship between supply and demand for real money balances, as well as the interest rates. The quantity of money demanded is dependent on the interest rate. + +[isoquant demonstrating change in money demanded depending on interest rate.](https://preview.redd.it/z4rthged9cc91.png?width=397&format=png&auto=webp&s=69fb1ffd8973f255856cb87d365e386572f01e03) + +Ergo, Fed's open market operations raise interest rates ⇒ quantity of money demanded drops ⇒ inflation becomes less unstable (in theory). Nevertheless, considering the extent of quantitative easing from the Fed in the past years, as well as the current state of the market, extreme measures would have to be taken to lower the high inflation rates. The current rate hikes have not been enough. + +Where does GameStop come into play? + +Unlike the dollar, GME has a cap of about 76 million outstanding shares (about 304 million when adjusted post-split). And considering the fact that GameStop has virtually no debt and a solid $1 billion cash on hand, I see no probability of dilution in the future. + +The Fed printing trillions of dollars is currency dilution, similar to share dilution. + +Hence, if the USD is being actively diluted but GME won't be in the foreseeable future, GME is a safeguard against USD inflation. Yes, there are synthetic GME shares floating around, but they *must* be bought back—for this reason, GME is not only a safe haven asset against inflation, but a generational wealth creating machine, due to the inevitable MOASS upon the closing of synthetics (& ultimately all short positions). + +Another significant reason as to why GME is a safe haven asset is because it's a hedge against a market crash. When overleveraged firms start getting liquidated and the market tanks, a variety of outcomes can take place, but they all lead to the benefit of GME, as opposed to the rest of the market. + +For one, in the event of a market crash, GME would likely first drop in tandem with the market, only to finally take off in the opposite direction once shorts start closing their positions, due to failed margin calls. + +In the event that GME were to drop in tandem with the market crash, but there were somehow no failed margin calls for SHFs (unlikely), GME couldn't drop as hard as the market, lest SHFs let GME enter critical float lock levels. + +The graph below from my DD "[SHFs Can & Will Get Margin Called](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vrwfjt/shfs_can_will_get_margin_called/)", illustrates both critical levels that SHFs need to avoid GME from entering: + +https://preview.redd.it/m41mrz5i9cc91.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=07a6082d45024e569f6b467ac258b69c1a884851 + +Whether it be the spike in credit default swaps or unprecedented records of margin debt to be the initiating factor in this market crash, the market would have a long way to go before bottoming out. And although the market can create unprecedented troughs, GME can't. There's a hard limit to how much GME can drop. If GME drops to critical float lock levels, the float would get locked within a few months maximum (if not a few weeks). And this is assuming GameStop & RC don't instantly lock the float themselves (or at least expedite it), as a GME price in critical float lock levels would technically be low enough for them to finish the float lock. It would be a catalyst for MOASS either way. + +Regardless of what happens, GME is the biggest safe haven asset during a market crash. The crypto market will crash along with the stock market, as hedge funds have been and are [still](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mainstream-hedge-funds-pour-billions-of-dollars-into-crypto-11646808223) heavily invested in Bitcoin/altcoins. The primary reason the major cryptocurrencies generally move in tandem is because institutions trade them in an etf basket, similar with "meme stocks", but I digress. + +Crypto will not be safe during a market crash, neither will real estate, or commodities. + +GME is not only shielded from inflation, but also a market crash. Regardless of how the stock market crash plays out, every outcome leads to GME being on top, and MOASS inevitably initiating. + +Apes can rest comfortably knowing they are shielded from adverse macroeconomic events. Others, however, may not realize GME is an ark in a sea of red until it's too late. + +https://i.redd.it/w1k24prk9cc91.gif + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Additional Citations: + +Hassani, Ashkan. *Applications of Cobb-Douglas Production Function in Construction Time-Cost Analysis*. University of Nebraska, Dec. 2012, [https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=constructiondiss](https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=constructiondiss). + +Mankiw NG. [Macroeconomics, 7th Edition](https://jollygreengeneral.typepad.com/files/n.-gregory-mankiw-macroeconomics-7th-edition-2009.pdf). Worth Publishers; 2010. + +“SEC Filing: Gamestop Corp..” *SEC Filing | Gamestop Corp*., SEC, 30 Apr. 2022, [https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/19781/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/19781/html) + +“SEC Filing: Gamestop Corp..” *SEC Filing | Gamestop Corp*., SEC, 1 May. 2021, [https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/c48c7a03-2683-407c-95d0-](https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/c48c7a03-2683-407c-95d0-83584d1a2b70) + +“SEC Filing: Gamestop Corp..” *SEC Filing | Gamestop Corp*., SEC, 2 May. 2020, [https://news.gamestop.com/node/17986/html](https://news.gamestop.com/node/17986/html). +I'm an 18 year old guy and soon to be homeless. To preface: +I've been living with my Mom who has mental issues and was basically a ticking time bomb. Today we had a small argument and she suddenly went absolutely insane. I'm going to spare the details but if you were to listen to the breakdown from outside you'd think someone was being murdered. Her breakdown is over but she says "She's done with everything" and is leaving the apartment so that the rent will not be paid. We'll likely soon be evicted anyway because of the damage to the apartment. +So that's the situation. I need advice on how to get through this... for reference: + +I have no money for at least a week. We have always been extremely poor, living paycheck to paycheck and often that wasn't even enough, etc. My mom (when she was being normal) told me to quit my job last year and focus on school, so I did. + +But, I did get a job this week to pay for school transportation, but since I just started I barely have any weekly hours and my paycheck is at least a week away. But I'd like some tips on what to do once I get it. + +I'm enrolled in a massage therapy school and I have a student loan taken out for it, so leaving is not an option. But everyone is very nice there so I can probably ask for some help there on Monday. + +I've seen others like me come here in a crisis. If you know any subreddits I should x-post this to please let me know, I'll be checking my notifications as I pack my stuff. + +I typed this up fast so I'm sorry if some things aren't clear, I'll reorganize this later. Thank you for reading. + +Edit 1: Thanks to everyone who has advised me so far. Unless there's a better idea or a reason not to, It's looking like joining the military is the best choice for me. I've got no family, and my friends don't even live on their own yet. My new job is not giving me nearly enough work hours to live off of. I don't have much wiggle room, unless I can convince my boss to give a brand new guy full time hours. If there's any advice about this choice you can offer, please do. + +Edit 2: Wow, a ton of people are dropping advice. Thank you so much. Please give me some time to respond to the comments and messages. Bless you all + +Edit 3: I spoke to my landlord and he's giving me some time to get on my feet. He told me he'd call in 6 weeks to see what my plan is. So I have a little time. + +Additionally I've formally decided to join the Air Force (and quit massage school). I took the practice ASVAB and got a great score so to all the people PMing me worried about me dying in the military -- don't worry, I will probably have more flexibility in my placement than you think. I'll make a final update when I have my start date, so again THANK YOU to everyone in this thread who provided advice. +What's up fellas at Theta Gang. I made a tool called [FD Ranker](https://www.swaggystocks.com/dashboard/stocklabs/fd-ranker) that logs the average IV of some popular stocks. The tool is inclusive of almost 1,000 tickers now. + +**What is this tool good for** + +I often use the theta gang wheel strategy by selling cash secured puts close to at-the-money and I like to see where I can get some bang for my buck. A quick scan of the list will tell me what IV is looking like for certain stocks and when earnings is coming up and whether or not I want to do a weekly theta YOLO for earnings. You can sort by IV, stock price, or Earnings and filter by ticker. + +Here's some of the top tickers from this weekend. Instead of making a full list of tickers ranked by IV, I'll share some of the more common tickers mentioned. + +# High IV Tickers List + +\*Some of the market cap data is off, so always double check before entering any plays! + +|Ticker|Market Cap|Stock Price|IV (%)| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|RIOT - Riot Blockchain...|3.32B|$48.05|247%| +|CCIV - Churchill Capit...|8.25B|$37.89|245%| +|MARA - Marathon Patent...|2.45B|$38.40|232%| +|TLRY - Tilray Inc - Cl...|3.88B|$29.68|229%| +|GME - Gamestop Corpor...|3.65B|$51.41|209%| +|APHA - Aphria Inc|5.38B|$17.01|182%| +|SRNE - Sorrento Therap...|3.79B|$14.43|179%| +|AMC - AMC Entertainme...|1.6B|$5.56|179%| +|SOLO - Electrameccanic...|647M|$7.88|172%| +|NNDM - Nano Dimension ...|155M|$15.57|164%| +|HYLN - Hyliion Holding...|2.91B|$19.05|163%| +|QS - QuantumScape Co...|11.3B|$53.87|162%| +|FUBO - fuboTV Inc|3.15B|$45.90|161%| +|DGLY - Digital Ally In...|95.1M|$2.56|160%| +|LAZR - Luminar Technol...|8.25B|$37.37|152%| +|SPCE - Virgin Galactic...|12.8B|$54.18|148%| +|ACB - Aurora Cannabis...|2.46B|$12.40|143%| +|FCEL - Fuelcell Energy...|8.45B|$25.79|141%| +|CRON - Cronos Group In...|4.41B|$12.23|138%| +|SBE - Switchback Ener...|1.19B|$38.03|135%| +|PLTR - Palantir Techno...|46.8B|$31.61|132%| +|BLNK - Blink Charging ...|1.85B|$50.77|132%| +|PSTH - Pershing Square...|6.05B|$30.16|132%| +|WKHS - Workhorse Group...|4.35B|$36.08|129%| +|ARCT - Arcturus Therap...|1.8B|$72.72|128%| +|RIG - Transocean Ltd|2.17B|$3.54|128%| +|JMIA - Jumia Technolog...|5.55B|$61.40|124%| +|CODX - Co-Diagnostics ...|480M|$16.87|124%| +|OSTK - Overstock.com I...|4.57B|$105.94|122%| +|APXT - Apex Technology...|546M|$15.13|118%| +|NKLA - Nikola Corporat...|8.39B|$21.78|115%| +|CGC - Canopy Growth C...|15.1B|$40.33|111%| +|BB - BlackBerry Ltd|7.35B|$12.88|111%| +|AI - C3.ai Inc - Cla...|0|$152.64|111%| +|CRSR - Corsair Gaming ...|3.96B|$42.70|105%| +|LL - Lumber Liquidat...|817M|$28.38|104%| +|LMND - Lemonade Inc|9.28B|$164.25|103%| +|SFIX - Stitch Fix Inc ...|5.34B|$84.26|102%| +|XPEV - XPeng Inc - ADR...|22.8B|$46.67|102%| +|GRWG - GrowGeneration ...|2.1B|$56.77|100%| +|UPWK - Upwork Inc|6.93B|$56.65|98%| +|NIO - NIO Inc - ADR|93.4B|$59.72|96%| +|BBBY - Bed, Bath & Bey...|3.41B|$28.25|93%| +|DASH - DoorDash Inc - ...|0|$205.09|93%| +|PLUG - Plug Power Inc|29.6B|$62.72|93%| +|HUYA - HUYA Inc - ADR|8.01B|$33.92|92%| +|GSX - Gsx Techedu Inc...|15.2B|$103.48|91%| +|FSLY - Fastly Inc - Cl...|10.4B|$100.45|91%| +|APPS - Digital Turbine...|7.66B|$85.39|91%| +|PRPL - Purple Innovati...|2.4B|$39.52|90%| +|IQ - iQIYI Inc - ADR...|19.3B|$26.32|90%| +|RKT - Rocket Companie...|2.38B|$20.55|89%| +|CRSP - CRISPR Therapeu...|11.4B|$158.73|88%| +|ABNB - Airbnb Inc - Cl...|128B|$211.23|88%| +|BYND - Beyond Meat Inc...|11B|$175.39|87%| +|CNK - Cinemark Holdin...|2.43B|$20.45|84%| +|FVRR - Fiverr Internat...|10.4B|$322.13|83%| +|SEDG - Solaredge Techn...|16.9B|$328.14|82%| +|CCL - Carnival Corp. ...|22.7B|$20.46|82%| +|SNOW - Snowflake Inc -...|85.2B|$296.54|81%| +|W - Wayfair Inc - C...|21.3B|$291.09|79%| +|HOME - At Home Group I...|1.6B|$24.55|79%| +|COTY - Coty Inc - Clas...|5.2B|$6.75|78%| +|DBX - Dropbox Inc - C...|7.75B|$24.29|77%| +|M - Macy\`s Inc|4.62B|$14.79|77%| +|CLDR - Cloudera Inc|5.94B|$18.89|76%| +|ROKU - Roku Inc - Clas...|59.5B|$465.61|76%| +|BIDU - Baidu Inc - ADR...|109B|$312.70|76%| +|NOK - Nokia Corp - AD...|2.75B|$4.18|76%| +|CVNA - Carvana Co. - C...|13.9B|$295.99|76%| +|MRNA - Moderna Inc|72.7B|$182.92|75%| +|PENN - Penn National G...|18.5B|$118.15|73%| +|ZM - Zoom Video Comm...|124B|$431.44|73%| +|NCLH - Norwegian Cruis...|5.06B|$23.41|73%| +|ENPH - Enphase Energy ...|26.1B|$204.07|73%| +|DKNG - DraftKings Inc ...|23.9B|$60.84|72%| +|X - United States S...|3.63B|$16.45|71%| +|OXY - Occidental Petr...|23.6B|$25.34|71%| +|FROG - JFrog Ltd|6.01B|$66.25|70%| +|TTD - Trade Desk Inc ...|36.2B|$860.95|70%| +|U - Unity Software ...|34.1B|$124.94|70%| +|GPS - Gap, Inc.|8.63B|$23.00|70%| +|SAVE - Spirit Airlines...|2.98B|$30.38|70%| +|FEYE - FireEye Inc|4.89B|$21.32|69%| +|ETSY - Etsy Inc|29.5B|$232.16|68%| +|SHAK - Shake Shack Inc...|4.94B|$128.13|66%| +|SE - Sea Ltd - ADR|121B|$275.02|65%| +|NET - Cloudflare Inc ...|26.4B|$84.67|65%| +|AAL - American Airlin...|10.4B|$17.27|65%| +|CZR - Caesars Enterta...|13.5B|$79.88|64%| +|PTON - Peloton Interac...|40.8B|$154.01|63%| +|ZS - Zscaler Inc|30.4B|$225.05|63%| +|LB - L Brands Inc|13.1B|$47.53|62%| +|TDOC - Teladoc Health ...|42.6B|$293.21|62%| +|ESTC - Elastic N.V|14.6B|$165.90|62%| +|CHWY - Chewy Inc - Cla...|47.3B|$117.62|62%| +|RCL - Royal Caribbean...|15.2B|$67.46|62%| +|CRWD - Crowdstrike Hol...|45.6B|$240.14|61%| +|SQ - Square Inc - Cl...|116B|$271.92|61%| +|SMAR - Smartsheet Inc ...|10.3B|$84.22|60%| +|CREE - Cree, Inc.|13.7B|$122.75|60%| +|PINS - Pinterest Inc -...|51.9B|$84.20|60%| +|TWLO - Twilio Inc Clas...|61B|$434.29|60%| +|Z - Zillow Group In...|45.2B|$198.48|59%| +|TSLA - Tesla Inc|784B|$808.05|59%| +|DOCU - DocuSign Inc|49.1B|$261.48|58%| +|TWTR - Twitter Inc|57.2B|$71.76|58%| +|DISH - Dish Network Co...|16.5B|$31.40|58%| +|SNAP - Snap Inc - Clas...|92.3B|$62.13|57%| +|UAL - United Airlines...|12.9B|$43.69|57%| +|SHOP - Shopify Inc - C...|175B|$1446.98|56%| +|TAN - Invesco Capital...|5.05B|$120.34|56%| +|DDOG - Datadog Inc - C...|23.5B|$112.19|55%| +|LYFT - Lyft Inc Cls A|17.8B|$57.37|54%| +|HAL - Halliburton Co....|17.9B|$20.07|54%| +|TEVA - Teva- Pharmaceu...|12.2B|$11.11|54%| +|EAT - Brinker Interna...|3.04B|$66.31|53%| +|YETI - YETI Holdings I...|6.36B|$73.06|53%| +|WYNN - Wynn Resorts Lt...|12.7B|$117.15|53%| +|MGM - MGM Resorts Int...|17.8B|$35.69|52%| +|UBER - Uber Technologi...|107B|$60.44|52%| +|SPLK - Splunk Inc|28B|$172.90|51%| +|PBR - Petroleo Brasil...|22.2B|$10.59|51%| +|MELI - MercadoLibre In...|96.8B|$1938.71|51%| +|VALE - Vale S.A. - ADR...|92.5B|$17.44|50%| +|WDC - Western Digital...|20.1B|$65.65|50%| +I’m 37, wife is 35, we have a large difference in wealth. More specifically she has a lot more than me with a lot of room to keep growing, whereas short of founding my own company or having a few lucky investments I’m pretty much maxed out on income. I’m not sure why but it makes me feel sort of uneasy, I liked how for the majority of our relationship we had a fairly even balance. I’d rather not raise it with her and make her feel uncomfortable but I would be interested in hearing from people who have been in a similar situation. + +When we met 12 years ago I had just become a senior software engineer, I was really career focused and rose quickly. She was a year out of university, getting started in the world of finance. I was making more than her for most of our time together but as she rose in her career her income increased dramatically. + +She gets the majority of her income from carried interest (basically a % of excess profits on funds she manages), which unlocks every few years and that has started kicking in. + +Through the years I’ve accumulated £3m, mostly in company shares but also personal investments and property shared with the wife. Meanwhile she’s got £5m she can access currently with a further £5m in carry that’ll be unlocked over the next few years. She’s also on a fast track to be the youngest partner at her firm, when that happens she’ll be earning millions each year. + +We had a child 2 years ago, due to the nature of my work I was able to switch to remote work to take care of it after her maternity leave (which she cut short). She jokes that I’ll make a great house husband if we have another kid. I’d always expected I would be the main earner in any relationship since I was a kid, I’m really happy for her but I would be quite depressed and embarrassed as a house husband. + +Last year after the stress of having a newborn was over I was looking into buying a nice car but decided that initial cost and ongoing maintenance made it a pretty irresponsible purchase. She basically said it’s fine if I go ahead and buy it because she can cover everything else, it was a generous offer and she genuinely wanted me to get something I would enjoy but it made me not want it at all. + +We also purchased a flat in Hong Kong recently and she suggested properly combining all our money but I wanted to keep splitting everything 50/50 as we’ve always done that, but it did mean we couldn’t afford as nice a place as we could have if she put up the majority of the money. + +Feel like these kinds of issues are only going to grow and really not sure how to deal with them. Any advice? +Why is it when I say "I want to retire at 35 yo.", people usually respond with: "What are you gonna do with your life? You'll get bored." + +Like, I have thousands of games to play, movies and series to watch, music to listen to or play, and places to visit. Not to mention hobbies to try. Like, being bored is at the bottom of the list. + +And actually, I kinda miss having the luxury of being bored. Like right now I feel like I really don't have enough time for myself and work robs me of my time and energy. +Welcome to the ETH Daily Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here. Please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or support issues. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior **should be reported** and redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To visit this thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +* For newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum, you can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](http://bit.ly/2rMAXmq). + +* **[EXPERIMENTAL]** - To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +&#x200B; + +I have always had a lifelong goal of $10 Million net worth, that I told myself once(if ever) I reach it, it would be enough and I would retire. Just this year, I have finally reached this goal. It came a bit sooner than I thought. As I begin planning my early retirement, I came across the term FATFIRE, and realized this is exactly what I have been doing without knowing. I am happy to find this community! + +&#x200B; + +My current situation: I am 33, with a wife age 30, with 3 kids age 1-5. We have just reached a net worth of $10 million Canadian, equivalent to $8 million USD.(All currency values onward will be in Canadian since that's where we are). Our main holdings include our house valued at 4M, with 2M mortgage; 7 other rentals total valued at 6M with 2M mortgage, and a savings of 4M invested in stocks & etfs in a various of accounts. I still holds 100% ownership of my company, which now generates around 100k/month for me, but I expect that earning to eventually die down with me going into retirement, hence I am not consider it to be part of my net worth. Other personal items such as cars, pianos, jewelleries, etc probably will have another few hundred K of value, but since they are depreciable assets I do not consider them part of my net worth. + +&#x200B; + +I feel very fortunate being able to get to where I am, and will share my story here. I think it's an interesting one, and can be replicated by smart young people. I am also hoping to get some advices from veteran FATFIRE friends about what to do and how to live after retirement. + +&#x200B; + +MY STORY: + +My parents were working professionals in a developing country. We immigrated to Canada 20 years ago. Back then, their biggest reason for immigration was to provide a better life for me. When we first came, my parents brought $20,000 with them, which was their lifetime savings. Life was hard back then for me as a teenager. We lived in a basement rental, and didn't have a car for many years. It was all the way after I went to university that my parents finally saved enough to put a down payment on a house. + +&#x200B; + +As a kid, I was pretty smart, not as hard working, but did manage to get good grades. I got into computer science program in a good university in Canada. I was not the best student in university, but did manage to graduate in 2010 with a degree in computer science, and a brand new software engineer was made. + +&#x200B; + +I got a decent job after graduation, with a pay of $60k/year. It was a lot less than what people in FAANG make in SF, but it was good for my area at that time. However, half year in, with a bit of money saved up, I had a "GREAT" idea for a business and decide to quit and form my first start-up. Long story short, I worked my ass off and it did not work out. By end of 2011, I decided to end the start up and go find a job again. This venture made me lose all my savings from my first job and my intership earnings back when I was in school. It also tought me a lot of valuable lessons. + +&#x200B; + +I went back to work as a software engineer early 2012. Though the start up failed, the experience I gained from it did allow me to get a boost in salary. At my new job I now make $80k/year. It's a good job at a good company, but I was still thinking of starting something on my own. Remember, I had always had the $10M dream, and I know I will never get there if I keep working for others. + +&#x200B; + +This time however, with the lessons I learned from my 1st start up, I re-evaluated myself and set up new rules. For one thing, I realized though I am a great learner of technical skills, I have poor social skills, and poor leadership skills. So I had to find something that would fit me. I set up several rules for my new venture. I think it's with these rules, that I did manage to make my second company a success, at least for myself. + +1 - I will not quite my job until my new business makes enough money + +2 - There should not be any over-head cost (since I lost all my savings already) + +3 - I need to be able to do this alone. + +&#x200B; + +It took me around half a year to figure out what would fit into this type of business, and I decided to go into mobile gaming development in the 2nd half of 2012. Even though I had been a software engineer, I had only been working websites until that point, and had no idea how to program mobile, but I did manage to learn on my spare time bit by bit. Turns out it wasn't that hard. This became the perfect business for me. I would work during the day at my job, and during evenings and weekends I would learn and make small mobile games. It costed me nothing except time, plus a computer and a phone that I already have. + +&#x200B; + +By end of 2012, I had finished and published my first game. I completely avoided my disadvantages, which is talking/leading people, and used my advantages to the max, which is learning new things, such as mobile coding, and graphic designs. I think I was also very good at identifying markets, such as what game people might like, etc. + +&#x200B; + +When I launched my first game, it was not a hit. However, it did generate revenue, which gave me a lot of hope! With the release of my first game, I started earning around $3-$5 dollars per day from Ads and In-App purchases. Not a lot right? Not even enough for lunch, but I realized that this business could work! For one thing, it costed me nothing except some time, and the business is already generating profit! How many tech companies can do that in a year?! And with this experience, I know I can do better by making better games. + +&#x200B; + +I continue to work during evenings and weekends coming up with new ideas and making new games. I got to say, it was a tough time back then. I must have been working for 100 hours a week for months. But I had my goal in mind, and when you are determined, you really get stuff done. By March of 2013, I had managed to publish 5 games, each better than the previous one, and by April, I was earning $200-$300/day from my games, start to surpass my salary from my job! + +&#x200B; + +I quit my job May 2013 to work full time at game development. In the year followed, I created several dozen small games. By end of 2013, I had a net worth of around 200K, and I put down 60K of it as a deposit for a $1M pre-construction house closing in 2015. That was my first real estate investment. + +&#x200B; + +There were a lot of ups and downs running my own company. I had never hired anyone all to this day (except pay salary to my wife for tax purposes). In the first few years, I relied on game quality and word-of-mouth to promote my games. App platforms also like to promote newly released games, which was great for me. This way, I spent $0 on advertising and pretty much kept every dollar I earned. However, it wasn't smooth sailing. There are times where the earnings drop for reasons out of my control, there was one time I was threatened with a copyright lawsuit, and other troubles. They did cause me to abandon my game company twice, once in early 2015 to start another tech start up with 3 other people (failed), and learning and getting licensed as a real-estate agent in late 2016 (license obtained then abandoned). + +&#x200B; + +Back to my net worth. By late 2015 when my first house closed, I had made around $600K via my gaming company. Also the house I purchased in 2013 went up in value by $500K with crazy hot market. This put me into the millionaire category. Also in 2015, I married my wife and had our first kid. My wife came from a similar family backgrounds as myself - working parents. We met in university and she studied education. She worked part-time for 2 years after graduating in 2013, and has been staying home taking care of our kids full time since we got married. + +&#x200B; + +It took me a bit over 5 years to go from $1M net worth to $10M net worth. + +In 2016, I used all my savings from the company, around $400K after paying the downpayment of our first house, to purchase rental properties. In one year, I bought 4 properties with value totalling $2M with 20% down. In 2017, I used my new earnings to purchase 2 more properties in a different city with value totalling $800K with around 30% down. + +&#x200B; + +In 2018, I switched strategy for my gaming company. By learning what other gaming studios were doing, I began focus on paid advertising of my games. I started to use all my earnings as ad spending to acquire more users, and get more earnings. I executed this strategy pretty well, and managed to grow my company's net income to over $1M/Year for 2018, 2019 & 2020. + +&#x200B; + +In 2019, I Purchased a new house for our family for around $3M, with mortgage of course. It's a pretty big one. 11000sf including basement. I also started to focus more on stock investing. Since I have a tech background, other than the main S&P index, I invest heavily in Tech companies and ETFs. However, I never go on margin with stocks just to be safe. + +&#x200B; + +2020 was a pretty good year for my net worth, despite what happened with the world. Stock market, Real Estate Market, as well as my gaming company's earning took off with a blast. Now, in April 2021 I realized I have done it. I have amassed a net worth of $10 million! + +&#x200B; + +To get to this point, it took me: 11 years after graduation; starting 3 companies with 2 failed; running my mobile gaming company for 8 years; created almost 200 mobile games; never hired an employee; Bought 8 houses along the way; Learning to invest in the stock market; + +&#x200B; + +I think to get to $10M, my company contributed \~5M, real estate appreciation contributed \~4M and my stock gains contributed \~1M. However, with out my company, I would never had money to invest in the other two. + +&#x200B; + +That's my story! Thanks for reading all the way to here. I hope my story has been an interesting read for you! + +&#x200B; + +For veteran FATFIRE friends, I am looking for your advice: + +My plan now is to retire. I will still have my earnings from my gaming company for a good while. However, I know if I stop making new games/ads, the earnings will eventually die down. I am hoping to get another $1-2M from my company in the next few years without me doing anything. I know, it could be a waste of a good company if I just let it run its course, but I feel like I have made enough to have a happy life. + +&#x200B; + +I am weighted pretty heavily in real-estate, and have a pretty large portion in my principle residence. I feel that having a large principle residence is probably not a good idea in US, but in Canada, gains from principle residence is 100% tax exempted. My hope is to live here until my kids are all grown up and moved out. At that point, I would be able to downsize to a smaller house with my wife, and get all the gains from my residence out tax free. I also have 7 other properties, the good news is they are all cash-flow positive now. However, I do wish to diversify more, since all properties are in Canada and not too far from each other. My thought is to refinance some of the houses while the interest is low now a days, and move those freed up cash into stock markets. + +&#x200B; + +I am currently planning to spend 3% each year just to be safe. To be honest, so far we have never even come close to spending $300K/year pre-taxed as a family. Can anyone help me figure out what would be a good way to plan a budget of $300K/year for a family like ours? + +&#x200B; + +For Younger people who are looking to FATFIRE. + +I hope my story inspires you in some way. Personally I think I have managed to get to $10M in a pretty short time period without a lot of stress. Now looking back at my life, I have missed a lot of opportunities as well. For one thing, all the way until 2019, I had most of my money in a bank account or some sort of GIC savings with very low interest. (Except the money that had went into real estate). If I had been investing those money in the stock market since 2013, with all other things being equal, I would be able to hit 10M at least 2 years earlier. + +&#x200B; + +Feel free to reach out for questions, and may be you can use my story as a guide to a similar success. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks everyone! and Thanks for creating a great community for FATFIRE! Let the life long vacation begin! + +Edit: Regarding future of my company. I think as I transition into retirement, I will still do my best to maintain my existing apps and continue their UA and Monetization strategy. This way. I will get the full value out of them. However, I would stop the more time consuming part of the business, which is identifying new trends and making new apps. I think by only doing maintenance of existing apps, I can cut my work hours to 10/week. A lot less than the hours I have been putting into in the past. + +Edit: Regarding people saying it’s impossible now to get into mobile gaming. I can say for a fact it’s still very possible via 1 of 2 routes: 1) submit game to large hyper casual publishers, all of them are actively seeking new games to test out. as long as you spend the time and make quality games, they test for you at no cost and buy them out if they works for 500K-1M each 2) test games yourself. An ad budget of $200-$500 dollars is enough to tell if a concept works or not. If you get excellent initial stats, then you can improve,advertise, recoup expense via earnings, and repeat with gradual larger budget. However, getting the right game concept and make it perfectly, that’s the hard part. But if you can make an amazing game, you will be able to convert that into profit for sure. +I’m gonna be honest here + +I’ve seen SO many “Gurus” show up this year on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube and god knows what other platforms + +All claiming they made really great returns but just started trading this year....in March...literally at the bottom of the market. + +Please don’t listen to these guys + +People who’ve made all their money on one or two stocks from just throwing money at the literal bottom of the market don’t know what they’re talking about + +I know this seems obvious but man I’ve seen so many, and just today I had my brother in law tell him his barber was giving him day trading advice + +To those asking: Read a book to learn, idk where you should start. + +Wanna learn TA? @butimnotatrader on YouTube provides some crazy predictive stuff to the T - https://youtube.com/channel/UCfsjoc_1Q9ue1pL0BpehqmQ + +Cue banks Confluence 2.0, teaches you about setting support and resistance, I think this is a paid video that got uploaded? - https://youtu.be/9X3tQcwE5hQ + +Macro economics? Some dude named Steve on YouTube where his wife makes him props (don’t know the channel name) he’s really good at explaining trickle down/up economics + +Don’t listen to Graham Stephen or meet Kevin, I don’t hate them, just...ugh. Clickbait. + +Other than that I have no clue where you should start. Everyone kinda sucks. +Let's face it, frugal tips written by people who aren't truly poor are pretty awful. Stuff like don't go to Starbucks is insulting and hurtful when your bank account is all but empty and you just need to figure out how to feed your kids this week. Things like start a garden also don't help much if you need food now. Even less helpful are the people who live on homesteads with a huge garden and some chickens writing about how they spent less than $50 a week at the grocery store to feed their family of 8. Yeah, anybody could do that if they had their own freaking farm :D + +So, what are your REAL tips for getting by? + +I have a few: + +1. Barter child care if possible. When I was in college, I had two young kids. I was able to trade babysitting with a neighbor. She watched my kids in the morning when I was at school. I watched hers in the evening when she worked second shift. +2. Yard sales tend to be much better in expensive neighborhoods. From my experience, sales in poorer neighborhoods have higher prices because somebody is trying to scrape up enough money to pay a bill. In richer neighborhoods, it seems people just want the stuff gone, and they really don't care so much about the money. +3. You can stretch meals by adding more pasta, beans, rice or vegetables. I would typically double a recipe except for the meat in things like casseroles or pasta dishes. Example: If your chili recipe calls for 2 cans of beans, put in 4. +4. Find a library and use it. Libraries are more than books. They are air conditioned in the summer and a good place to go with your kids to beat the heat. They often have clubs and activities that you can join too. (Granted, Covid makes this tricky right now) +5. You really need to start stockpiling food whenever possible. When you are flush, get a few more packages of pasta, some sauce, some tuna, etc. Then, when your electric bill comes due and it's going to eat most of your paycheck, at least you'll have a bit of food in the house. When I was really broke, I learned that saving food was better than saving money. Something would always come along that needed whatever extra dollars I had. But, food in the pantry was a true asset. +6. When you're shopping for groceries, think in terms of meals. Shop the sales rather than trying to plan your menu in advance. One whole chicken can give you three meals. +7. Prioritizing bills generally is in shut off order. You'll get a feel for who is the most lenient and who will shut off your service in a heartbeat. This means your priority needs to be housing, food, water, electricity and heat. Credit cards, medical bills and entertainment come after those basics. +8. Help others whenever you possibly can. I can't tell you how many times a friend, relative or neighbor saved my butt when I needed a ride to the store, or a few dollars to keep the lights on. Build up goodwill and karma. + + +[https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/07/19/157047211/six-policies-economists-love-and-politicians-hate](https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/07/19/157047211/six-policies-economists-love-and-politicians-hate) + +Eliminate the corporate income tax. Completely. If companies reinvest the money into their businesses, that's good. Don't tax companies in an effort to tax rich people. + +Therefore, should Biden actually eliminate corporate tax and add better taxes (wealth tax)? +My ex and I broke up after 6 years a couple of months ago. Had no choice but to find my own place. Rent is $1,000 a month. Car payment , gas , water , cable , car insurance...I can't do it. But I have no fucking choice. I'm 31 , parents are dead and I have no other family. Bank account went negative today because cable came out. Idk how anyone does this especially with no help. Fuck this world. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT \*Just wanted to edit this post because there are a lot of comments addressing the "cable" thing. I don't have cable. I have internet and it's $70 a month. I should have just clarified that in the beginning. I really appreciate all of the suggestions and will be looking into them. Thank you guys + +&#x200B; + +\*\* This will be my last edit because number 1 I didn't expect this to blow up and number 2 I see so many comments on my expenses so I'll just get it all out of the way because I can't respond to everyone. + +&#x200B; + +I make $18/hr. I live in Philadelphia and work in Philly so I get a lot of taxes taken out. My take home every 2 weeks is $1,100 so essentially I bring home about $2,200 a month. + +&#x200B; + +Rent - $1,000 + +Car payment - $385 + +PGW- Varies + +Peco - Varies + +Car insurance - $140 + +Renters insurance - $75 + +Phone - $110 + +INTERNET - $70 + +Dental - $20 ( just canceled. Don't understand how my teeth aren't considered part of my body and need it's own insurance but that's a whole different conversation ) + +This also isn't taking into account things like food , gas etc. I don't go out. I spend most of my time at home when I'm not at work. I've never lived on my own before so yes I'm having a hard fucking time trying to manage all of this alone. I just canceled a couple of random subscriptions I had and I plan on canceling my internet. I'm not sure where else I can cut my budget. My car is financed and I'm about halfway done paying it down. I also fucked up my credit in my early 20's and am currently paying one of them off which is about $200 a month ( don't have a choice in this , I was served court papers and had to settle ) + +&#x200B; + +Again , this was just supposed to be a vent post but I seriously really do appreciate all of the suggestions and am going to continue working on where I can cut expenses. Thank you to everyone that was kind and trying to help. + +&#x200B; + +Also I'm a girl + +&#x200B; +I don't want to sound all doom and gloom but the more I read the news and learn about the economy (I am an engineer by education), the more pessimistic I am about the future of our kids. + +We have more than 1 year of almost double-digit inflation in the EU, the EUR/USD exchange rate went down from 1.15 to almost 1 since the beginning of the year, and the housing crisis is worsening. All of this according to my layman understanding of how economy works means that: + +1. People's savings took a big hit and lost a lot of value the last year alone +2. The building materials went up, which means that even less affordable housing complexes would be built this year, as most of the investors would either slash their building projects or proceed with only the luxurious ones, where the margins are much bigger and considered safer bets +3. Real Estate in Europe became less attractive to the general population because of the increasing interest rate of the mortgages and shrinking purchasing power but more affordable for investors with cash on hand, especially foreign investors, for example in the US and depending on the specific country's policy, might additionally worsen the housing crisis. +4. Energy and food prices are through the roof, which will put a lot of pressure on the low and middle-income earners +5. All of this while the income of the majority of the population didn't increase, we are talking about probably more than a 10% hit on their disposable income and their savings + +I am fully expecting this autumn/winter to have huge strikes disrupting, even more, the economy and governments across Europe and I genuinely wonder how our kids would be able to purchase let's say a flat or a house without inheriting the said house/flat or inheriting a big pile of cash. + +Especially seeing how the whole economy is moving towards a subscription-based economy for more and leaving us with even less disposable income at the end of the month. Kind of Orwellian reality. + +Am I the only one having those dark thoughts? +Well, that was unexpected. They did have a blow out quarter though: + +Q4 sales topped $100 billion for the first time: $125.56 billion vs. $119.70 billion expected and $87.44 billion year-over-year + +EPS: $14.09 vs. $7.34 expected - which is insane as well. + +I'm gonna need a day to grasp this. What the hell Jeff. + +Edit: Bezos will transition to Executive Chair, and Andy Jassy will take over as CEO. Jassy is currently AWS CEO. + +> “Amazon is what it is because of invention. We do crazy things together and then make them normal. We pioneered customer reviews, 1-Click, personalized recommendations, Prime’s insanely-fast shipping, Just Walk Out shopping, the Climate Pledge, Kindle, Alexa, marketplace, infrastructure cloud computing, Career Choice, and much more,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “If you do it right, a few years after a surprising invention, the new thing has become normal. People yawn. That yawn is the greatest compliment an inventor can receive. When you look at our financial results, what you’re actually seeing are the long-run cumulative results of invention. Right now I see Amazon at its most inventive ever, making it an optimal time for this transition.” + +[Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-reports-4q-2020-earnings-results-152012181.html) + + +The Bonfire has been lit. + +This coin has absolutely crazy moon potential. + +It's a community-owned token. Rug-pull proof (ownership-renounced, liquidity burned). + +It has hit up to $75M in just three days, +THATS UP 50M FROM JUST YESTERDAY!!!!!! + +Only three days old, the community has responded in turn already paying for a PooCoin ad and are currently looking at getting a billboard in Times Square. Seriously, they got a quote for $5k already. + +Dedicated wallet with donations that have already reached $25k, donated by the community within 12 hours! + +It's still super early, and has potential to go up to $500M market cap by TOMORROW. + +Most big whales have already dumped, and now we are more community based and PUMPING! + +I got my bag. Will you? +Its still super early!!! + +Sitting by the comfy bonfire ;) + +Website - [www.bonfiretoken.co/](https://www.bonfiretoken.co/) + +Telegram - [t.me/BonfireTG](https://t.me/BonfireTG) + +PancakeSwap - [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) + +Chart - [https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) + +Our own subreddit - [https://reddit.com/r/BonfireToken/](https://reddit.com/r/BonfireToken/) + +Twitter - [https://twitter.com/token\_bonfire](https://twitter.com/token_bonfire) + +BSCScan: [https://bscscan.com/token/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590](https://bscscan.com/token/0x5e90253fbae4dab78aa351f4e6fed08a64ab5590) +Imagine parking 100k in a savings account in 2021 and coming out with 70$ by year end. Even though americans are saving more, it isn't beating out inflation. + +People are saving more, spending more, and making less.... + + +" In the 1990s, households generally did well by using savings accounts. Inflation rarely ran above 2% year-over-year, and interest rates were above 5%. " + + +"2020 happened, the spread between the average income generated in a savings account and the income needed to beat inflation has never been wider. We’re talking about a difference of $3,907, based on a savings account holding $100,000. What could have been a mortgage payment, a weekend vacation or down payment on a new car instead went poof due to the invisible tax known as inflation." + + +How are we supposed to not get all doom and gloomy about this? + +&#x200B; + +[Full Read](https://channelchek.com/news-channel/Inflation_is_No_Baloney) +Having not been through a recession before with stock investments - are any of the longer term investors able to share insights to what they have done before during a recession? + +Cut losses and wait for the lows? +Ride the wave? Wait for a rebound? + +Any information would be great! +Hi guys, + +Stagflation = high unemployment + high inflation + +We had this in the 70’s; in this scenario if rates go up, debts get more expense and layoffs happen. Therefore unemployment goes *up*. + +If rates go down and we do QE, inflation goes *up*. + +If we do nothing, then inflation gets worse as it’s self re-enforcing, and unemployment gets higher as people consume less due to rising inflation and that means companies make less money leading to more layoffs… + +How did the 1970’s get out of this pickle??? + +Thanks. +The company survives on data mining and with new Apple's data privacy policy and upcoming similar law from Google, Facebook is going to go under a very difficult path. New generation doesn't use their flagship product and their new products are notoriously lame. VR never took off, WhatsApp has its own issues and only Instagram seems to be doing fine currently. + +How will they hold onto their trillion dollar valuation? I'm not sure why Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Scheme has Facebook instead of Apple in their portfolio. + +As a person who's invested in this scheme, this bothers me a little. Is anyone more informed care to explain this move of theirs? +EDIT: For everyone replying saying the exact same things, yes the source of funds is legitimate, i am 1000% sure of this - also idk why people think i sell counterfeit goods but i don’t ? + +EDIT 2: i finally got my money back after 3 days + +So last night I was sending money to people, and I got a text saying my account has been locked, so I called them as soon as I woke up and they told me they cannot unlock my online banking account, and that I need to go to the branch. + +I go to my nearest branch, which is closed and for some reason it is not listed on their website, so I go to my second nearest and they verify my ID and tell me I will get a call from the fraud team within an hour, and if not then to call the support number, so I go home. + +I wait 2 hours and no call, so I call them myself and they tell me to go in the branch and that they can't unlock it once again, I explain that I have already been to the branch and was told to call, and they keep going in circles, then threaten to terminate the call and refuse to connect me to the manager. I call again, and this time convince them to let me speak to the manager, who says the same exact thing - I don't have a license as I'm 16, and I could not pay for an Uber as my card was locked, so I had to get my parents to buy me an Uber. + +I go into the branch for the second time, and they call the fraud team for me and put me in a room with a phone for 2 hours, when I got sick of waiting I asked them when I would be connected and they told me that there wasn't anything to do, when I got annoyed and said I would file a complaint, suddenly the branch manager came and talked to the fraud team on Microsoft Teams which replied INSTANTLY and told me that I was money laundering / human trafficking ??? I explain everything to them and they unlocked my account but said I would be investigated by the government? + +I go home, and check my bank account, and it says my available balance is $0.00, so they took $10k of my money. I tried to call the fraud team, and got through after an hour just for them to hang up after saying hi, and then called again and got put on hold for 2 hours. I'm lost now, no idea what I can do, I've reported them to the AFCA so hopefully I can get something out of that. +Okay we all have heard this time and time again and unfortunately i have been the victim of this too many times (most recently CCIV). + +Okay so let me spit ball here. The market moved how it wants and does what it wants in my opinion. Most of the time i feel we are chasing the market trying to catch up with it to make gains. + +Over time ive learned for the biggest gains you have to think outside the box and basically go against what everyone is saying. 99% of the time everyone's like Cramer said by XYZ so i sold XYZ and bought ABC and made a huge return... so now people are claiming bail out of big tech. Tech is over. Run and buy value stocks like JPM. But why? Cramer and everyone else is telling you sell your tech and that you need to buy value and reopening trades (most of which are already recovered). So why now listen? Why sell all your value stocks with unlimited potential for a value stock that probably isnt gonna return much. + +If we follow the buy the rumor sell the news... shouldn't we be selling value and buying tech? + +Most of us probably hold a large tech portion and guess what its for good reason... why not just average down while you can? This is my evidence of how big tech is gonna sling shot back quickly and hard once all this BS is over (granted might be a few months who knows). + +Take Square... January 27th $203 --> February 19th $268 --> February 25th $227 (first big dip) --> March 2nd $252 (first false recovery) --> March 4th $217 (today). + +So look at that movement. Hit close to all time high fell and then did a massive recovery in less than a week. Now dropped again. By this premise why not keep these positions and average down? If you take January 27th to today you are actually up $14... + +Look at things like qqq and voo they are hitting at or below there 100 day EMA (AKA Huge sale) + +For me im keeping my positions and averaging down. I dont have a crystal ball but i definitely will be averaging down and i for see at least a week or two maybe even a month before then fully recover and start trending up. So where do you wanna be? Sold and trying to time the bottom? Or holding averaging down and making money on way up? + +Positions- ROKU, PYPL, SMH, SQ, DIS, ABNB, Z, PLTR, OPEN, BETZ, SUBZ, ARKQ/W/K/F/G, TDOC, APPLE, CRSP, PRNT, NVTA, PACB, QQQJ. +A lot of guys want to fuck around with technicals and “everyone is fatigued” “we’re tired” “it’s repetitive” fuck all your FUD. I ain’t tired of Shit + +I’ve been here since January 2021 and was pretty heavy into the sub. Commented a lot, shit posted a lot, had fun, migrated fucking 3x, survived the witchcraft and mega mod action that went down many times. Watched tons of DD gods get exhausted trying to do the lords work. I’ve seen fruit violated in ways i never knew possible, and legends born in this sub. I read every page in the DD library, learned a lot, and became diamond as fuck. Conviction to the inth degree and am 1,000,000% un-fucking-shakeable. + +You know why there’s a lot less engagement? Because there are a couple hundred thousand more like me. And everyday there’s more and more that have been around long enough to just not give a fuck about the noise. I’m committed to Superstonk and I’m in here probably 5x/day. But there’s isn’t much new shit going on that the OGs haven’t been through before and that’s ok. I upvote good stuff, downvote dickheads, and comment every once in a while. Also known to add some half assed shit post here and there for good measure. But we’re at the consolidation phase of a nuclear stock explosion. I buy, I hold, I DRS. I have about 15% of my portfolio (which is 100% GME) spread over 3 different brokers and 80% DRS’d. Why? Because that’s how I want to fucking do it. I don’t give a FUCK whether you’re 100% DRS, or 100% broker, or somewhere in the middle. Because that doesn’t change the end goal. + +All we have to do is continue doing what we have been the last year. Keep upping the pressure and we’ll get there. I don’t care anymore about what is being posted, I’m here because it’s habitual and keeping up with the amazing shit some of you ape lords dig up. And the memes, fuck ya. But even if this sub disappeared tomorrow, I and MANY MANY MANY more would continue to do the same shit we have been until MOASS. Nothing changes until this bitch pops off and GME changes the world. + +Wherever you’re at in your GME journey, just know, you’re on this fucking rocket, and we’re all going. We have one path, the Bible of Superstonk and GME LAW: Buy, hold, DRS (if you can or want to). That is all… + +Fuck the noise and all the crybaby shit. Repeat: FUCK THE NOISE. Keep the pressure and we all go fucking boom boom. + +Tomorrow is always MOASS 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + + +Edit: just wanted to clarify real quick. I can’t prove if engagement is really declining. I saw some “data” that looked it it might be. And a bunch of others with fud bullshit to support it. I am very much too smooth to cross check this data and really figure it out. But, I’m looking at this from a realistic side of the argument and how my own particular engagement levels have changed over the last 14 months. And it would make sense that engagement would decline as many of the OGs that may be like me just don’t need any more convincing. There’s no more data that I can read that would further justify my position. My resolve is rock fucking solid. + +I believe many are like me, and more become like me everyday. The longer this goes on, the stronger we become, and the less convincing we need. + +Edit 2: holy shit… this got way more traction than I thought. Great to see all the OGs with the same mindset. Fucking love and appreciate you apes and all the triple OGs and DD gods that paved the way for us to be here today. Up 20% so far today… LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! + +And thanks for the awards! 🙏🏻 +Many people I see go into a store to buy one or two things, and come out with way more than they anticipated, with the excuse "oh I saved money! It was all on sale!". + +If you we're going to get the item anyway, yes you saved money, but if you didn't plan on it, you still spent money you didn't have to. + +EDIT: You could also set a budget, $150 for example. If you're going into a store, don't bring your card, only bring cash so you're not tempted to go over your limit. (Edit of an edit: Someone mentioned you could miss out on some rewards or promotions if you don't have your card, so I wonder what another way to limit yourself other than willpower would be?) + +EDIT 2: Thank you all so much for the support on this post, I tried replying to the comments at the start but it became overwhelming with the amount of comments coming in, thank you all for your input and advice to others! + +ANOTHER EDIT: Thank you kind one for the gold! My first ever <3 +I'm not sure if you were around a few months ago back in May when this little token known as UltraSafe blew up and made its way not just to the history books for breaking over 5 world records, but also onto billboards on NY Times Square for the month of Jun! 'Twas pretty insane. 🚀 + +This frictionless yield farming token (a fork of another very popular and successful project with the same concept) vastly improved upon the framework and security issues that plague the macro-market today. 🚧👎❌ + +By boasting an extremely quick and successful entry to market and listing on CoinGecko on its launch day, as well as and delivering on some major points that any investor with wits about them will initially look for in terms of audits (performed by 'Solidity' & crypto-renown 'Certik'), UltraSafe was a serious contender for the main stage in Crypto, though due to stablecoin market events and other real world implications this project's unlimited potential underwent suffering during the overall market's turbulent early summer. ✈️🌩 + +That said, with recent events & developments both within the project and in general sentiment of investors alike becoming seemingly bullish once more, holders of UltraSafe can now take solace in the reflections they've been earning during the dip in price it has seen. 📉📈📈 + +Reflections, you say? Yes, being a frictionless yield farming token UltraSafe takes 8% of EVERY TRANSACTION and redistributes 4% firstly to the locked liquidity pool and a further 4% to its holders proportionate to the value of which they're holding! Passive income and a growing holder count. Ultra has 41,289 holders at the time of writing this, so there's still some way to go and it is early doors for anyone bumping into this incredible project. 🙌 + +I say incredible due to the story it's provided so far, not just in the project but also in the community as it has flourished and grown since day 1. A bubbling community of humour and likeminded investors creating such a bullish and enjoyable atmosphere that everyone wants to take part. (they've even hosted meme competitions in the past!) 🥳🎉 + +What's more, they've also started to deliver upon their promises, with Staking being released today. Staking on UltraSafe is different than any other token out there as it does not have a set APY. Ultra staking rewards are directly correlated to volume of the token so the more people trading, the more people trading the more rewards. One of the devs in TG said if it was like the first week of Ultra they would've been able to offer 10 Trillion tokens for weekly staking rewards and this would've been around 1.2 million dollars at the time! Crazy stuff and since we are in NFT season again with Ultras NFT marketplace coming out next week I feel the all time high will be smashed and we will get huge staking rewards! +In my credit card's April-May billing cycle, I spent **$770** eating out as *one person.* I decided to track my spending in this area by putting all my meals I've been eating out on a credit card used only for that purpose. I looked at the end of the month and was absolutely dumbfounded at the amount of money I was spending eating out. I thought it might be $300ish dollars! + +Anyway, I paid off the credit card (angrily) and made a vow I would eat at home at every possible meal I could for the foreseeable future. I've spent about $70 a week on groceries, (was about $50/week prior) so plus $42, I went from and $1000/mo food expense (how the ever living hell was I making ends meet with this?) to $322/mo. And the kicker is I still have tons of food leftover at the end of the week. The only two meals I bought this month were a BK chicken sandwich while I was on the road and a birthday meal for someone. + +It feels awesome to have a 70% reduction in spending in this area just due to self control. + +I'm planning on using this self control in other areas. Next one is booze and cigarettes. Then my shitty habit of mobile game micro transactions. + +Sometimes I don't know how I've made it this far without being broke. + Token SCIA +PreICO Price 1 SCIA = 0.15 USD +Price 1 SCI = 0.15 USD +Bonus Available +Platform Ethereum +Accepting BTC, ETH, LTC, Fiat +Minimum investment 0.4 ETH +Soft cap 3,000,000 USD +Hard cap 36,000,000 USD +Country Gibraltar +Whitelist/KYC KYC +Restricted areas USA, China, Cuba, Iran, Korea, Syria, Crimea + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/0f7z2wovvws11.jpg +We are a 27 and 32 year old couple thinking about buying our first home. Doing so will increase our monthly expenses by $800-$1200 a month (mortgage vs rent payment, increased utilities, repairs, furnishings). Then, in a few years, we'd like to have children who will need daycare ($1200-$2000 a month in our area for a single child, depending on age). Thinking ahead, I don't think our current savings rate will be able to continue. Right now, we are on track to FIRE in our early 40s. These expenses will push it to our 50s. Even though I am certain we want children, and we want a house to raise children in, and I'm okay delaying FIRE by a decade for this life, I can't help but to feel a sense of failure that our savings rate will almost certainly decrease. Have other felt this? When are times you intentionally decreased your savings rate? +Hello! I am in the midst of writing several articles about the Canadian housing crisis. I am looking into the various arguments for/against landlords economic value in the economy. +- What are some potential implications to an economy if being a landlord is more profitable than being innovative? +- what role or necessity to landlords play in an economy? (Not developers but just landlords) + +Any articles/sources are welcomed. Ideally tailored to the non economic reader. Thanks +Turkey has one of the highest inflation rates in the world and their currency has been dropping against the dollar for years. + +My understanding is due to Turkey's persistent rate cuts. + +What is the rationale for doing so? Despite record inflation the country is relatively stable and still a regional power. + +What are the implications of Turkey's economic positions? +Not yet but atleast soon. + +Now on PANCAKESWAP [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xaf27259cdd9d1659e4771418f47fe0277bd1d789](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xaf27259cdd9d1659e4771418f47fe0277bd1d789) + +Come and join this project that was founded in a space ship, and who knows, maybe it becomes the next biggest thing. + +We are still small to think big things. But we are here to show you how we work and will to reach a great goal. + +&#x200B; + +Let me introduce to you Zombie, the type of project we love here. Medium risk high reward type of play that is safu and can be a literal moonshot if it succeeds. Made for those who've missed on Elongate, SafeMoon and other rockets that were sent into the stratosphere. Well this is it, your last call to be a part of another 100x project.Working on ZombieSwap , the best swap for brainless humans !And ZombieMon, the game where you level your zombies to get more money for your bullocks !And let's get ready for ZombieCharts....But the best... Is the ZomBrain ! An interconnected neural network based on blockchain ! + +&#x200B; + +We've seen a lot of crazy things happening with shitcoins, WE are the next one ! + +&#x200B; + +LETS EAT SOME BRAIN TOGETHER + +&#x200B; + +Tokenomics + +&#x200B; + +Supply: 1.000.000.000.000.000 + +&#x200B; + +50% Burn forever12% tax per each transaction8% is returned to the liquidity pool2% is redistributed among all holders2% is Burn + +&#x200B; + +Twitter : [https://twitter.com/zombiecoin1](https://twitter.com/zombiecoin1) + +&#x200B; + +Telegram: https:// t.me/ZombieCoin1 + +&#x200B; + +Reddit : [https://www.reddit.com/r/ZombieCoin/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ZombieCoin/) + +&#x200B; + +Poocoin: https:// poocoin.app/tokens/0xaf27259cdd9d1659e4771418f47fe0277bd1d789 + +&#x200B; + +Lp locked : [https://dxsale.app/app/pages/dxlockview?id=1&add=0x61F071a830a45A8A4c8b3367d00D28746c43be7f&type=lplock&chain=BSC](https://dxsale.app/app/pages/dxlockview?id=1&add=0x61F071a830a45A8A4c8b3367d00D28746c43be7f&type=lplock&chain=BSC) + +&#x200B; + +BSC scan : [https://bscscan.com/token/0xaf27259cdd9d1659e4771418f47fe0277bd1d789#balances](https://bscscan.com/token/0xaf27259cdd9d1659e4771418f47fe0277bd1d789#balances) +What would happen in the US If most citizens stopped or refused to pay their credit cards, health bills, mortgages, student loans etc..? + +Would the economy crash or would the government step in? +I got into a car accident last year, which reimbursed me 11k and the Canadian government recently announced that students will not be charged interests on their student loans until March 2022. Wondering what my best option is because I have enough to pay of the debt right now but I could make some money in the short term with it. However, I am leaning more towards paying off the debt. + +Edit* +I have purposely delayed my graduation because of COVID-19 to work internships while having my student status. I am currently working for Suncor Energy and expect to make 80k before taxes by the end of the year. I also already have a tangerine and EQ bank accounts, as such I can't do promotional 2% offers anymore. I plan on doing another intership somewhere abroad next year with the same salary range but thats if everything goes to plan for me. + +Update* + +I forgot about this but I'm from Vancouver, and the BC government has forgiven 1k of my loan for whatever reason. + +With that being said, I will most likely put 9k into VEQT, 1k into ethereum, and 1k into cardano and pull out early next year if I need the cash depending on my situation (I dont mind risk). + +To give you guys a better idea of my reasoning, here is my current financial situation: + +I only have the 9k* student loan debt with no interest. + +I currently have a 5k emergency fund with EQ at 1.25% + +15k invested in different stocks and 5k in a bond portfolio with questrade. + +13k in crypto currency which has 5% interest rate in usd. (My 1k investment into doge coin turned into 11k in 2 months) + +I additionally have other smaller TSFA and RSP accounts. + +I can also continue working with suncor and extend my student contract but I will most likely leave in December because I wish to work abroad and gain experience outside of the oil and gas industry while traveling. + +I appreciate all the comments guys! Let me know if you guys think I'm retarded or not with my idea. +A little background: + +* 30 years +* £27.5k income (of which I can save around £700 pcm if I’m frugal) +* Home owner +* £100k in cash to invest - mainly from inheritance, and some savings during 20s. Mostly accumulated between 2018 and now + +**Current Position** + +You may wonder why I have £100k in cash to invest, and why I haven’t purchased any assets with it yet? + +TL;DR - was in uni when I inherited the majority of the money, but planned on (after finishing uni mid-2019) starting to buy properties in cash, refurbishing them, refinancing them at the new value to pull some cash out, and renting them out - rinse and repeat (BRRR strategy for anyone familiar with property investment). First deal fell through, then COVID happened and the market went bonkers. Made a few offers since but these opportunities haven’t been abundant so I haven’t managed to secure a deal yet. + +**The Goal** + +My rationale for doing the above is to create an income to allow me to leave my job and spend time on activities that are less tied to sustaining my day-to-day living costs (which would be covered by my rental incomes): + +* Pursuing higher risk business opportunities (I have a software dev background so something like a SaaS appeals to me +* Travel +* Having children and being able to be very present in the first few years of their lives + +**Why property?** + +I was drawn to property because it‘s easy to understand, and the properties in my area can produce an 8-10% ROI with fairly conservative figures (see the below figures for an example of a property I was looking at earlier this year): + +* £77.5k purchase price +* £1.5k fees +* £2325 stamp duty +* £525 rental income pcm +* 75% LTV @ 3.5% +* 12% management fee, 18% set aside for repairs, 4 weeks void per year +* **8.15% ROI** + +This ROI on my cash pot would cover my living expenses, and the figures are conservative. Despite what you may think if you live down South, this is not a property in a bad area. It’s not an affluent area by any means, but it’s a bread and butter ex-council area in the North East of England that rents well to young families. It’s not the lower end of the market at all in this area. + +**Property Downsides** + +Apart struggling to actually find a property like this for the moment, there are a number of concerns related to property that COVID has highlighted for me: + +* Political risk - landlords are unpopular and I can see this continuing and becoming worse due to the fall out of COVID. I can see things like evictions being more difficult in the future, I also think landlords will shoulder some of the fallout in the form of higher taxes +* Interest rate rises - we are already seeing 10 year bond rates going up. I see two scenarios here: + * Governments keep interest rates where they are, allowing debts to be inflated away and leaving cash/bond holders holding the bag. This will undoubtedly create further populism and landlord hatred + * Governments increase interest rates, causing asset price crashes which pose a particular risk to leveraged property investors +* Lack of diversification and personal liability if your property business fails (whereas owning equities in a S&S ISA is diversified and does not pose the same bankruptcy risk) + +**Shares - the alternative** + +I’ve been looking at equities/shares as an alternative. I deposited £20k into my S&S ISA last year to use my allowance last year. It’s sitting in cash so I have it available if I do decide to go the property route, but I didn’t want to lose my allowance in case I do go into equities. With the prospect of higher taxation in the future due to COVID, the S&S ISA tax shelter has become particularly attractive to me. + +I’m still researching and learning about equities but struggling to find them appealing for the following reasons: + +* Indices at all time highs during a global pandemic - it feels like a bad time to put my life savings into the market +* It just doesn’t feel as nice as property, psychologically + * With property, you’re buying an asset that will perpetually produce an income that can be spent or reinvested. Once you have enough properties to generate £1000 in rental profits per month, you have an income of £1000 per month for life. + * With global indices, unless you’re rich enough to have enough money to put into the market and be able to draw a significant income from like 1-2% of your portfolio value, it feels more like a savings account with a modest return (realistically 5-7% at best, inflation adjusted) that you then draw down only in retirement. You‘re dependent on the price you can sell those assets for being higher than you bought them for. It feels like more of a ‘hit and hope’ strategy, or like a gamble. There’s no guarantee I’ll even reach retirement age, nevermind that my shares will have appreciated significantly (there are periods where indicies crashed and took 25+ years to get back to par) +* It seems that the closest to reproducing a rental income is investing in dividend stocks (perhaps through a high dividend index fund), but I’ve read enough to know that dividend preference is a fallacy +* Value investing is another approach that appeals to me, but having gone down the rabbit hole I have very little faith that I can find companies that outperform. + +**Other alternatives** + +I’m not necessarily looking to be completely passive/hands off so some other ideas for more hands on leveraged incomes I’ve thought about are: + +* Holiday lets +* Buying existing businesses +* Setting up trading businesses (anything from watches to properties, something that will allow me to flip my funds to higher and higher amounts) + +**Conclusion** + +Apologies that this is such a long rambling post. I suppose the purpose is to sanity check some of my logic and get some external perspectives on all of this. My main concern at the moment is if I sit with my cash for too long and there is high inflation over the next few years, the value of my nest egg will erode significantly. + +Thanks +How many of you are on minimum or low-paid jobs? How many of you struggled to get by during the pandemic? How many of you have families to take of and that keeps you up at night? How many of you fantasize about owning a house or a car but know you have a better chance of winning the lottery? + +Now how many of you are *depending* on crypto to get you out of your dire situation because you literally have no other options? + +I know from being on this sub a long time a lot of us are doing this because we are banking on crypto to get us out of the gutter and achieve a level of financial freedom our broken economic systems could never help us achieve. 99% of the posts you see here aren't of people hoping to become millions despite all our joking about moons and Lambos. The majority of "cashing out" posts you see are for modest, reasonable goals. Going to college, taking care of elderly parents, getting by in poor countries, owning a house. These are all things that in our age of technological advancement and productivity should be considered bare essentials and yet here we are betting it all on magic meme money to save us and give us the minimum we hoped for out of life. + +Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, and the rest of them are literal symbols of the broken systems that have led us here and necessitated the creation of crypto to allow us to claw back a tiny bit of agency in this crazy world. Their bloated assets, larger than many countries' GDP, give them the kind of power 1000 ancient kings couldn't even dream of. They aren't on our side. If there was the mere hint that crypto could threaten their status or wealth you bet your ass they would turn on us in a second. + +Don't simp for Musk if he pumps your bags for a few days, he didn't make his billions by helping people intentionally. Crypto is for the people now and always. +Back again for another rant... + +I feel like I can't go one day without thinking about being poor. I am constantly planning and budgeting and thinking of ways to make money. + +When I'm not working I'm calling places to attempt to get extensions on my bills. I'm doing surveys and scanning receipts several times a week for pocket change. + +I'm just tired. Physically and mentally, I'm tired. I couldn't imagine what a small hand-up could do for me. Like if I could just get ahead for a little bit I would be fine... + +I'm sure others feel the same. +[Link to the full article (3 min read)](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/facebook-parent-meta-earnings-q3-2022.html) Shares of Meta plummeted in the extended trading after reporting a second straight revenue decline in Q3 and forecasted another drop in Q4. Meta is facing slowdown in online ad spending, challenges with Apple’s IOS privacy update, and losing users to TikTok. Meta’s revenues dropped 4% while expenses rose 19% from the same time last year. Revenues in their VR headsets and metaverse related business fell by nearly half from a year ago and has lost $9.4 billion so far this year. Meta stocks have already lost two-third of its value this year prior to the plunging share prices in the after market on Wednesday. + +**Check out** [**investorsnippets.com**](https://investorsnippets.com/) **to get more bite-sized news like straight to your inbox for free.** + + +## Chapter 8 The Investor and Market fluctuations + +I am summarizing and updating “The Intelligent Investor”. If you have missed it here are the previous chapters: + +[Chapter 1: Investment vs Speculation](https://roiss.substack.com/p/lets-update-and-summarize-the-intelligent) + +[Chapter 2: Inflation and Investing](https://roiss.substack.com/p/lets-update-and-summarize-the-intelligent-5eb) + +[Chapter 3: Cycles and market psychology](https://roiss.substack.com/p/lets-update-and-summarize-the-intelligent-686) + +[Chapter 4&5: Portfolio policy and stocks for the defensive investor](https://roiss.substack.com/p/lets-update-and-summarize-the-intelligent-e3a) + +[Chapter 6&7: Portfolio policy and stocks for the aggressive investor](https://roiss.substack.com/p/the-intelligent-investor-portfolio) + +[Chapter 8 : The Investor and market fluctuations](https://roiss.substack.com/p/the-intelligent-investor-market-flucations) + +&#x200B; + +Warren Buffet calls Chapter 8 and Chapter 20 the bedrock of his investing activities underlining the importance of this chapter. In it Ben Graham explains market fluctuations in a small anecdote. + +You own a small share of the business. Your partner Mr Market tells you everyday what he thinks your share is worth. He offers to buy you out or to sell you additional shares. Sometimes his suggestions seem plausible justified by business developments and prospects. Often however Mr Market lets his enthusiasm or his fear run away and the price he proposes seem short of silly. If you are an intelligent investor you will not let Mr Market’s daily communication determine your view of the company. You are happy to sell your shares when he quotes you a ridiculously high price and equally happy to buy when his price is depressed. But the rest of the time you will be wiser to value your holdings based on full reports from the company about it’s operations and financial position. + +If there is one certainty in the market it is that your portfolio holdings will fluctuate widely. One can expect his holdings to go up or down 50% once in the next five years. An investor wants to take advantage of these fluctuations, but it creates the danger to start speculating. It is easy to write about not speculating. It is much harder to follow that advice when the enthusiasm and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sets in. + +### Market fluctuations as a guide to investment decisions + +There are two ways to profit from market fluctuations: timing and pricing. + +Timing is when you buy and expect an upward swing, while pricing is to buy stocks below their fair value and sell them when they reach that value. + +If you emphasize timing you it will only lead to speculation. No one can forecast the future. Analysts are more often than not wrong (look at forecasts for the years that had a market crash in them) but we get convinced that forecasts are important. + +Of course some people can make good money with market forecasting and “macro investing” (like Ray Dalio) but the general public won’t. Instead one can use timing as a psychological advantage. Every speculator wants to get rich quickly and most professional money managers get rated on their quarterly performance. The idea to wait a year is repugnant. If you have a long term outlook with good financial fundamentals that can be a huge advantage. + +### “Easy Money” + +If you spent any time in 2020 on social media you have seen them too: people who promise to make easy money with a stock picking system, formulas or an option strategy. It sounds great, but Ben Graham warns of those schemes: Any approach to money making in the stock market which can be easily described and followed by a lot of people is by it’s terms too simple and too easy to last. + +If you look at the returns of the best investors of all time Spinoza comes to mind: “All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.” + +### Market fluctuations and the investors portfolio + +Day-to-day or even month-to-month fluctuations won’t make you richer or poorer. While a rise in the market brings confidence and a good feeling that can lead to overconfidence, enthusiasm and greed. Even for the intelligent investor it takes considerable willpower to keep oneself from following the crowd. + +If you listen to financial tv or are on social media you think investing is a sport or war game. But it is not about beating others but about controlling yourself at your own game. + +Often it is better to not look at the market quotation but just read the financial reports of the companies. Instead of thinking like a trader, one should think like a business owner. While speculators try to profit from market fluctuations you should just aim to acquire a company at a good price. Never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell because it has gone down. + +Graham summarized it perfectly: “The primary cause of failure is that they pay too much attention to what the stock market is doing.” + +### Business valuations vs stock market valuations + +What the stock’s value is should be based on its balance sheet and financial strength. However because of trading they are often seen as stock symbols instead of a business. That makes them more dependent on market movements and less on the business financials. + +Good businesses are likely to sell above book value and the better it's record and prospects are the farther it is removed from intrinsic value. It depends more on the changing moods of the investors. Loses of big companies are often due to a lack of confidence in the premium valuation that the stock market has placed. Graham advics to concentrate on issues that are selling at a reasonably close approximation to tangible asset value as they have more correlation to the balance sheet. Now a stock is not a good investment because it was bought at asset value and with the rise of software and more asset-light companies this advice shouldn’t be taken literally. No matter what, the company’s valuation should be based on reality and not on hopes and dreams. + +### Market psychology + +Humans perceive trends where they do not exist and we have tendencies to buy high and sell low. If you are aware of these biases you can keep yourself in check and can have great investment returns. The book called “Thinking fast and slow” outlines these biases and Charlie Munger gave a great talk about the human misjudgements that can definitely help to improves one's investing behaviour. + +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws +This question is inspired by this news article: [Joe Biden’s dire warning: a ‘meteor’ is headed to tank the US economy](https://archive.is/WyhOq) + +So how worried should I be? + +* Should I be worried about this causing a global economic meltdown? +* Should I be worried about this making the USA collapse like the USSR? +* The vast majority of my country's foreign currency reserves are in the form of US Dollars. If the US Dollar suddenly becomes worthless or unrecognised, will our economy crash too, and will it make our currency worthless? +* If the US Dollar stops being a hard currency, will countries simply switch to other hard currencies (e.g Euro, Yen), or could it turn the currencies of other large economies (such as the Yuan and the Rupee) into hard currencies? +* Finally, will a default affect the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal? +Dear investors, i wish you a good day. + +I started investing in November 2017 and before i realised what was happening, my super fast gains ended in a bursting bubble and a year of decreasing prices. Im down 52% of my investement and i would love to see how this community is holding up. + +&#x200B; + +Im sure we will see new ATHs in the futute so im not that concerned about my actual "loss". Lets see this subreddit as a support group where we are here for each other (even if its quite tocix from time to time). Dont loose hope because this technology can and will change the future. + +Happy holding and trading everyone! + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/9l9do1) +I have been reading the book: The oil factor by Stephen Leeb written in 2004. He talks about the inverse relation between (rapid) increase in oil prices, lowering supply and high demand, but he takes a detour. The dotcom bubble dropped sp500 -40%, nasdaq -80%, 16trillion USD wealth went to 7 trillion. The fed lowered rates to 0.75%, boosted borrowing and home prices served as a healthy collateral, which can only go up right? US was highly in debt before the bust, but after… oh with low rates causing booms in home prices, more debt. In this 2004 books he says, if home prices would fall it would be taking down the banking system (1:6 leverage at that time so 18% default was needed to make the banks insolvent, we know later the leverage was 1:20 so 5% default was enough). What would cause home prices to fall? Policies to curb inflation, aaaand when did the fed start to raise rates? Yes, early 2007. No more cheap refinancing causing defaults (subprime etc), and booooom. + +Amazing book btw on oil, I would recommend it :) thought I would share my joy of finding this out, maybe Burry read this book also in 2004? +I always see people make fun of trickle down economics with a couple of memes. What about it makes it actually a bad theory, or do the online posters jot understand it correctly? +Hi all, I'll try to keep this as brief as possible with all relevant info. + +Financial situation: I [26M] currently have about $17k saved up in my checking account plus $3k as an emergency fund in savings. I have very low expenses due to living with my parents, so I'm able to put away as much as $1500/mo. I'd like to move out as soon as possible for the sake of my mental well-being, but being able to accumulate this much money is too great a temptation for now. The only debt I have is a car loan. I have been contributing to an HSA as of last year, and this year I've decided to start maxing out my contributions. + +Dental work: My jaw isn't lined up right, so I only have one set of usable molars and have a substantial open bite, to the point where I can't bite into anything with my front teeth. I recently got an orthodontic consultation. If I get my mouth fixed, they'll extract my wisdom teeth and four molars ($1500? IDK; I would possibly get this done regardless of whether I pursue the other work or not), followed by braces ($6700), orthognathic surgery ($4000 if my insurance covers it, I'll find out in July; if they don't cover it the point becomes moot since the surgery costs like $100k), and dental implants (??? maybe $8000 @ $4000 per implant, maybe more if they have to do bone grafts first or want to put 4 implants in instead of 2). + +The Dilemma: I've gotten by this long without the dental work, so it almost seems foolish to drop this much money on something that's partially an aesthetic problem. It would go a long way towards a down payment on a house or to pay for some education. At the same time, it would be really nice to get my teeth fixed and be able to eat/smile normally, although my confidence isn't really negatively impacted that much by my current facial aesthetics. + +I can tell my immediate family is kind of hoping I won't go through with it, they've always just suffered through dental problems since they've never had this much money to spend. + +I guess I'm just looking for some outside perspectives on the financial aspects of this decision, feeling a bit overwhelmed and out of my element. + +Thanks. +Hoping to get some advice, or maybe hear from someone who has had similar issues. + +I bought a house (primary home) in March 2022, with a decent locked in 30 year rate. One of my most important criteria for a house was no HOA. The listing had no HOA, and on the disclosures given to my realtor, an HOA was not disclosed. + +Now it seems there IS an HOA. They previously had no fees, but now want $400 per year. I got a letter in the mail to this effect. + +I am, basically, furious. I don’t care about the cost, but the loss of autonomy. I would have NEVER bought this house if there was an HOA. + +I am contacting a lawyer tomorrow, but wanted to see if anyone else has been in a similar situation and what the result was. +"Nice car OP, I'm really happy for you and all, but if you'd bought something else you could have made more money. May I recommend not buying a car in the future, but maybe a house instead or in fact maybe just keep hodling forever? That's how you maximize profit OP, buying that car was a financially unwise decision. But yeah really happy for you OP, big congratulations" + +Don't be that guy. OP isn't a fucking moron, he didn't make hundreds of thousands by being retarded, he obviously didn't buy an expensive car without realising it will lose resale value. You're not adding anything useful, you're not giving solid advice, you're just being really petty. Meanwhile you probably got a gaming rig and a laptop and an android phone all "depreciating in value" while you're sharing this bullshit advice. + +Maybe this one time you bought a $10 pizza, but do you realise if you'd put those $10 into ETH when it was worth $3.50 you would have had over $2,000 now?! Have you been wiping your ass with 3-ply toilet paper? Yeah should have used your hand and put all those dollars into ETH. You've literally been wiping your ass with thousands of dollars! But yeah congratulations, real happy you wiped your ass. +I have always been wondering why nordic countries like Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are so economically successful. I know they have a lot of state owned companies, but other countries like the UK, France, Austria did have high spending too before the 80s, but they were not so successful, actually UK's economy was kind of a disaster in the 70s. So what are Nordic countries doing different that they are doing so well? +[https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3](https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3) + +Assuming we could know the date a piece of real estate goes underwater (literally) how far out would that property begin losing value? 30 years? 40 years? why? +I had a reminder set to check up [on this 2016 article](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/13/artificial-intelligence-robots-threat-jobs-forrester-report) that claimed "Robots will eliminate 6% of all US jobs by 2021". + +But now I can't find any readily available sources to check if it came true or not. Any help would be appreciated. +My wife and I were at Panera eating breakfast and we noticed a lady be hind us talking on the phone very loudly. We couldn’t help over hearing her talk about a bill not being paid. We were a little annoyed but not a big deal because it was a public restaurant. We were not trying to listen but were shocked when she announced that she was about to read her card number. She then gave the card’s expiration date, security code, and her zip code. We clearly heard and if we were planning on stealing it she gave us plenty of notice to get a pen. + +Don’t read your personal information in public like this. You never know who is listening and who is writing stuff down. +Thoughts on this deal. Paid 200k for raw land around 6 years ago. I have an offer to sell for $700k. Proposal is 25% down with owner financed and remainder paid over 12 months. It’s a larger parcel with mature timber. Only downside that I can think of is buyer clear cuts and runs after paying 25% +Look, I signed the contract at the end of the day… but finding out a unit in my building sold for $200k more than mine only weeks later stings. And I haven’t even moved out of the building yet. There are only 4 units in my building of this layout, both mine and the other are fully renovated, the only difference being mine faces the street, the other does not. Surely not worth $200k more though? +I paid my agent for his advice, he was pushy and recommended I sell off-market (even calling/texting on a Saturday night to see if I’d signed yet, despite me saying I’d think about it over the weekend). I didn’t need to sell this unit to buy my next place, I could have held off until I found my next place (and saved a load of stress whilst trying to secure the next place)… then to find out the agent knew the buyer of my unit well….. ahhh it stinks. +Anything I can do about it besides live and learn, and push it out of my mind?? + +EDIT: I’ve gone through our correspondence and there is a message from him asking “have you signed yet as I’ve already told the seller you accepted”… My reply was “I feel pressure”…. 😣 + +Also - I know I’m an idiot. + +UPDATE: Spoke to a solicitor. He thinks I have a case as the agent didn’t act in my best interests. There is a lot of evidence to suggest he was being pushy and pressuring me to sign. He has suggested I present the case to a Barrister to get their view on whether or not it’s worth going through litigation. If so, present a letter to the agent/agent’s insurer with this information along with valuations. Then most likely to go to mediation. Getting to that point could take several months and cost $50k. If unsuccessful go to court and that could take 12 months and more $$. The solicitor has said I cannot back out of the sale and to proceed with settlement, as there is no evidence of collusion between the agent and buyer. +I have some thinking to do… +**Just found a GEM** 💎 That gives back to the holders in BNB And their own tokens!! +\#BabyBossFinance ! They have a really cool tokenomics that they call BabyNomics! + + +🚀Looks like a real serious project with great ambitions. +👀 It reached a 1 million market cap in under 2 minutes after launch. +👼🏼**Reached the hard cap of 108 BNB on pre-sale.** + + +🔥Burning 1 trillion tokens every single day for 90 days. And the devs are talking about a BIG BURN PARTY! + + +Read their roadmap at their website: [BabyBossfinance Website](https://www.babybossfinance.io/) + + +The road map contains a lot of interesting stuff, and if they do 60% of what they have planned I believe this can be a huge success. + + +* **Launch** app, **Giveaway** every day, **Heavy** influencer marketing, **Merch, Exchange listing, and Custom NFT's** for holders. This actually sounds crazy! + + +They are focusing a lot on their own subreddit and trying to get people to be active on their live chat. + +They locked the liquidity for 1 year. + + +Hold The $Baby and be rewarded in BNB on every transaction 4%, and another 1% in BBF tokens. +4% goes to the liquidity pool. + + +BabyNomics + +Liquidity Locked: **240 Trillion** + +Total Supply: **1 Quadrillion** + +PancakeSwap: **220 Trillion** + +Marketing: **100 Trillion** + +Charity: **30 Trillion** + +Pre-Sale Tokens: **360 trillion** + + +Pretty sure we can see this reach over 50 million market cap within a short time period. +I am invested but to the subreddit community always DYOR. + + +📈[Chart](https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0x272E923B510154F6285C5A38F24d448d53a833DD) + +📲[BabyBoss Telegram](https://t.me/BabyBossFinance) + +🐦[BabyBoss Twitter](https://twitter.com/BabybossFinance) + +🚀[BabyBoss WebSite](https://www.babybossfinance.io/) +Say Bill is worth 1.1B dollars. All through his life he spent 100M dollars. When he dies, his wealth (at whatever form) he still has 1B in his inheritance to give. + +Up until that point, would the economy be 1B larger if Bill spent all his money? +I fear that they want us to short the Robinhood IPO, and that Shitadel and others will back it, effectively squeezing the APES instead this time, and forcing our brokers to liquidate all our holdings (GME) in order to pay up... + +ta;dr: Shorting the Robinhood IPO is a TRAP! Citadel wants to get us margin called so we are forced to sell GME and save their asses. + +Why even bother putting $$$ into anything other than GME? + +\*not financial advice - am dumb ape - purple is the tastiest crayon\* +A marginalist argument would be that the percent of time a home is likely to be occupied decreases with housing supply. Equivalently the percent of a time a home is likely to be vacant increases with housing supply. Therefore a tax on vacancy will discourage housing supply at the margin. + +This is correct, right? + +No empirical studies I've found could discuss long run effects. Given the lifespan of a home, long run could be 50+ years. +Honest question i see the narrative get pushed all the time buy 10 homes then spend 15 years paying off those mortgages aggressively at 50 years old or so. Why? + +I chose a different path. I increase my life insurance every few years to cover my mortgages. My current portfolio is worth 24 million with 15.5 in mortgages and i have 15 million in life insurance at the moment. I had 5m from years ago then added another 5m 5 years ago and recently added another 5m. I don't bother paying down the mortgages because when i die my life insurance which is tax free money will pay them off for me. + +I've never seen anyone mention this method. All my life insurance cost me about 1400 a month in my 30s. Which is nothing to me in comparison to cash flow. + +If anyone has an idea as to why I'm wrong i would love to read them i enjoy seeing other point of views i might learn something. + +If i live a long life my tenants pay off my homes and if i don't the life insurance pays them off. What's wrong with this? + +As a fail safe I have prepaid the next 10 years of my life insurance ahead of time because it gives me peace. +So I’m 38, married, two small children, +NW >$5mm, diversified portfolio that does >20% growth with low six figure cashflow that should grow to >$300k once I’m done allocating and stabilizing. Wife still works and doesn’t want to retire, pulling another $200k. We live in North New Jersey after having lived years in Boston and then a few years in London. We traveled EVERYWHERE before setting down. + +By all accounts we’ve made it, and family life is wonderful. But we are struggling to find like-minded friends and a real sense of community. We’ve befriended some neighbors with similar-aged kids, but often find that the experiences we’ve had traveling the world and developing a sense of culture make it harder to relate to most people we come across. And now everyone knows I’ve just sold another business, so you see them assuming things about us and kind of putting me on this awkward pedestal. + +Neither of us were born into money and most people we’ve met here who have done well seem to be oddly competitive and materialistic about it, even extending their finances to have the nicest newest stuff and the biggest houses possible. That’s just not us. + +So those of you who have maybe had longer to adjust and integrate to financial independence, where/how have you found, like, chill, successful people to develop community with? +Hi everyone! This is Ran Abramitzky from Stanford and Leah Boustan from Princeton. We are economics professors and economic historians. We recently published a book [Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/). [Proof](https://twitter.com/leah_boustan/status/1549397846247489536?s=20&t=57u_XPvV9-TBP_uQyip-oQ). + +Immigration is one of the most fraught, and possibly most misunderstood, topics in American public life. [Streets of Gold](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/) uses big data and ten years of pioneering research to provide new evidence about the past and present of the American Dream. + +Turning to the data provides a new take on American history with surprising results: + +* **Upward Mobility**: Children of immigrants from nearly every country, especially those of poor immigrants, do better economically than children of U.S.-born residents – a pattern that has held for more than a century. +* **Rapid Assimilation**: Immigrants accused of lack of assimilation (such as Mexicans today and the Irish in the past) actually assimilate fastest. +* **Helps U.S. Born**: Closing the door to immigrants harms the economic prospects of the U.S.-born—the people politicians are trying to protect. + +[Streets of Gold](https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/ran-abramitzky/streets-of-gold/9781541797826/) weaves together the data with powerful stories of immigrants from a century ago and today. In building historical data on immigrant lives, we acted like dedicated family genealogists – but millions of times over. + +Happy to answer questions about immigration, past and present, or about our earlier work on the Israeli kibbutz (Ran) or the Great Black Migration (Leah). Also interested in your thoughts about US economic history more broadly, or about academia and career advice for younger scholars. + +Ask Us Anything! We'll be collecting questions this morning and then start responding at 1pm Eastern/10am Pacific. + +**Edit**: Ran and I have to log off at 3pm Eastern for another meeting. But we can come back later to check on any questions that are posted after we leave. Thanks for the great chat! +i’ve seen a bunch of different figures for how much the money supply rose in 2020, but surely if there was a 35% increase in the money supply there’d be an increase of 35% inflation? is that not what the fisher equation shows? +I messed up with 50k in options over two accounts and then 30k in forex. I have a stable job, so I’m not at rock bottom, but I’m cleaned out. Any advice on how to start fresh with this shitty history and mindset I have? + +Update: amazing responses and pieces of advice, I will whole heartedly take some of what’s here to heart. Thank you! +[I believe this is the study I'm referring to.](https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/421169?seq=1) Was this study received as a revelation? Was it rejected by most economists? What's the status quo when it comes to the impact of the New Deal during the Great Depression? +I had a question about how the stock market works. So, if you buy a company's stock and invest in that company: does the company actually receive your money, or does it go to an individual who sold you the stock? + +If my understanding is correct, the company only gets your money directly either when they initially go public, or if they issue more stock - is that accurate? As a follow-up: if they do not receive your money: then why do companies focus so much on returning money to shareholders? If shareholders continually supplied the company with the cash they needed to invest in the business, it would make sense to me, but otherwise it feels like it would be a one-way relationship in which investors collect the profits, but don't provide anything in return. +*Disclaimer: I do not own GME, nor do I intend to.* + +A friend of mine bought in to GME at around the $80 mark and has done well for himself. We met up recently and he is still very bullish on it, doesn't think it's a meme stock anymore, and believes it will continue to go up during corrections and crashes due to market forces. + +I'm worried that he will be caught off guard and lose a lot of money, but at the same time think that he should learn from his risky strategies. +People in my circle don't talk about financial problems. Only me really. My family is upper middle class. They've been going on vacations and stuff and talking about how good they're doing. They specialize in industries that actually thrive under the pandemic. I specialize in buisness travel and tourism. + +I'm just anticipating what the next blow to me will be. I was doing good in 2019. Now I'm probably below the poverty line. The past several months nothing short of dumb luck has kept a roof over my head. Month after month. + +Let's talk about what this pandemic has done to us. Please. I feel so alone. Let's just air out our problems. +It all started last April when things crashed I bought dividend stocks and several REITS 15k worth and was making around $105 dollars a month in dividends ....but around October I knew I could get a better return and when a tech flash crash happened sold all of my dividend positions and bought big cap and small cap growth stocks ...from October till December I made 62k from that original 15 and now i have a total of 97k a couple of months later. + +I really tried the dividend way of life but it wasn’t for me ........ +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here. Please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +**[EXPERIMENTAL]** - To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Hey all, + +So my parents gave me $125k and told me to do what I want with it. I know most people might just spend it, but my thought was to just index it in SPY. + +I don know much about options so I thought, are there better options strategies out there than just indexing? + +I did a bit of research on the wheel, but I feel like indexing would give me a better return. + +Thanks! +The title says it all: lumber prices are absolutely insane right now. + +Before COVID, lumber futures were never more than $700, and they were usually below $500. Now they're $1250, as of today. What is going on here? + +[https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber) + +The price surge last summer made sense to me, because COVID temporarily shut down the mills, and there was surge in home-building and renovation activity, as people were cooped up at home and wanted more space. + +But I'm struggling to understand this latest price surge. I would have expected supply to surge in response to the high prices, and resolve the supply-demand imbalance. + +Is there some reason why lumber supply can't increase enough to cover the shortfall? Are the mills maxed out? And if so, how high can the prices go, and how long can these elevated prices last? +As the title states :( Reading posts in this sub from others who have been in my shoes has been a source of comfort though, and I'd like to post about what happened to me, in case it in any way helps someone else avoid being victimized in the same way. + +I was approached by a man outside my bank this afternoon who showed me a money order check for $990. He told me it was his daughter's birthday, and because his own account was overdrawn by $500, he asked if I could deposit the money order for him and give him the cash, minus $40 for my troubles. That way, he would have $950 to spend on his daughter instead of the $490 he'd get from depositing it into his own overdrawn account. + +I should've been hearing major alarm bells at this point, but he caught me in a moment when I was slightly in a hurry and on a day I was in a good mood. My only previous experience with money orders was knowing that they're meant to be guaranteed funds, I didn't really question that it could be fake. So I deposited the money order at the ATM into my account, which accepted the funds, and withdrew $990. I honestly did feel a slight tingle of doubt as I handed him the wad of cash, but...foot in the door syndrome I guess. I looked at him and said "I'm choosing to trust you." He thanked me, stated he wasn't the type of person to do that, and offered me $40 back. I declined and told him to keep it for his daughter. + +He left before me, as I had another check to deposit. The bank is on a busy street in Brooklyn and as I walked out a few minutes later, I was waved over by a group of women who were selling masks on the sidewalk nearby. As soon as they called to me, my stomach sank because I understood immediately what had just happened. I felt foolish for taking that leap of faith on a complete stranger. But it's been a rough year for many people, while I have been blessed with stable income throughout the pandemic. I wanted to help...I myself moved to the neighborhood last winter and have encountered many random acts of kindness, and I just wanted to believe that he was telling the truth. + +Anyway, the ladies told me that guy had been hanging around the bank for weeks, and were upset for me when I told them how much I'd given him. They brought me inside the bank to speak with the security guard, even though at this point I didn't have any intention of trying to get the money back. I was visibly upset as I told the security guard what happened, and he was very comforting. After a gentle lecture on not trusting strangers, he told me that ultimately I did what I did out of kindness, and that the universe will return that energy and provide in other ways. + +I know this is a learning lesson, one that costs some people much more, and that what I lost today is ultimately replaceable. Trying to be thankful for that instead of feeling like a gullible idiot :( +(You can watch an extended version in video here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHPTkF95Lg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHPTkF95Lg)) + +The Buffett Indicator recently hit 214%, an all-time high. In an article from 2001, near the top of the dotcom bubble, Buffett said that if it'll reach 200% "we are playing with fire". + +I'll try to answer whether it still means that today, and does the indicator being so high definitely means we are in a bubble? + +\--- + +**What is the Buffett Indicator** + +Proposed in 2001 by Buffett as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment", it was shown as a reliable measure going back on the status of the market. + +It's calculated by taking the total stock market capitalization, through the Wilshire 5000 index, divided by the US GDP to represent the US economy. The idea is to have a view of how high the stock market is compared to the real economy. + +Stock market valuation (Wilshire 5000) / Economy (US GDP) = Buffett Indicator + +**Current market valuation** + +The current indicator valuation is 214%. + +[https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content\_image/data/dc/dc10cd5fdc5801e5fc774a0a9ded2f9b.png](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/dc/dc10cd5fdc5801e5fc774a0a9ded2f9b.png) + +This valuation is an all times high valuation, much higher than we had in the dotcom bubble for example. + +But it doesn't mean we are in a worse place than we had been in the dotcom - + +**Detrending** + +As technology and methods of working evolve, productivity is higher. It takes less to create what we created a few years back. + +Because of that, valuations are naturally higher. It takes less capital to generate more value - making the valuations of companies higher. + +To adjust to that natural trend, there is a need to de-trend the graph to compare to previous periods. Here is the de-trended graph: + +[https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content\_image/data/56/56502fc700e33ec41b0f4bd4d7e5960e.png](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/56/56502fc700e33ec41b0f4bd4d7e5960e.png) + +With the de-trend, we see that we are not much higher, but basically the same as the top of the dotcom bubble. + +Still, not good news, but here comes the reasons why "this time its different" (Pun intended) + +**Issues with the Buffett Indicator** + +\-It's no longer the single best indicator- + +Buffett Himself mentioned it in a Berkshire annual meeting. + +Instead, a combination of indicators is necessary. + +One that I recommend is the recent article by Ray Dalio. As the biggest macro investor in the world, I imagine that his combination of 6 indicators acts better. + +[https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio/](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio/) + +And by his indicators, the answer isn't that straightforward as we might infer from the Buffett Indicator alone. + +\- It's too focused on the stock market - + +The Indicator measurement for the "market" is the value of the stock market alone. + +Traditionally, that worked very well, as other assets were a good option too - so an expensive stock market meant a bubble. + +But in today's situation, there are no other assets. + +With interest rate at 0.25%, Fed money printing, and massive bonds purchases plan - the bond market is virtually non-existent for investors. + +Add to that inflation, and the bonds market and most alternative assets are in a real negative return situation. + +While in the dotcom bubble, we had 6% interest rate, and no inflation - so the alternative assets were lucrative enough. Yet, the stock market was as relatively expensive as it is now. + +All that is to say that the stock market is very expensive - but for good reasons. In the dotcom bubble, it was as expensive - for no good reason. + +Your understanding and conclusions from that may vary - either way, I think it's interesting to examine, and it gives another perspective on today's markets. + +P.S If you prefer to watch a video with similar content of me discussing it, it's here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHPTkF95Lg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIHPTkF95Lg) +My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in r/fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book. + +**No One's Crazy** + +The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. + +For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. + +And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. + +**Luck & Risk** + +The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. + +Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. + +Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. + +Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. + +Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. + +On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. + +**Never Enough** + +The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. + +Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. + +There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. + +When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. + +At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. + +**Tails, You Win** + +Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. + +At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." + +In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. + +Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. + +And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. + +When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. + +**Freedom** + +The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. + +Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. + +People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. + +If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what r/FatFire is all about. + +\--- + +I'm only half way into the [book](https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681), but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/stephenou) too. + +Edit: [here's part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ixqn4u/what_rfatfire_can_learn_from_the_book_psychology/) and [here's a Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/stephenou/status/1308437490961846272) of the best snippets +**Edits at the bottom** + +&#x200B; + +I know what you're thinking. What the hell is a netting account and why does this matter? + +&#x200B; + +**WELL.** + +&#x200B; + +My wonderful apes let me feed you with some information. As always, I know nothing and may be putting 2+2 together to make banana. Please critique and help me fill in the gaps, my knowledge on this started approximately 10 minutes ago. + +&#x200B; + +# The background + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9jbqiv21ybu61.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfb10ccc8c15acef2db91dcb37da4aee8761a26a + +So yesterday JP Morgan was approved for three more netting services accounts. You might be wondering, *why is this important?* + +Well lets explain the purpose of **Netting.** + +&#x200B; + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +# Netting + +&#x200B; + +*Netting is a method of reducing risks in financial contracts by combining or aggregating multiple financial obligations to arrive at a net obligation amount. Netting is used to reduce settlement, credit, and other financial risks between two or more parties.*  + +&#x200B; + +As I will explain, netting has various purposes depending upon its' use. In trading it's described as offsetting losses in one position with gains in another. For example; + +&#x200B; + +* I'm short 60 bananas +* I'm long 100 bananas +* My net position is long 40 bananas + +&#x200B; + +**Easy right?** + +&#x200B; + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +# Netting some failing whales + +&#x200B; + +Well it also has other purposes. + +Netting is also used when a company files for bankruptcy, whereby the parties tend to net the balances owed to each other. This is also called a set-off clause or set-off law. In other words, a company doing business with a defaulting company may offset any money they owe the defaulting company with money that’s owed them. The remainder represents the total amount owed by them or to them, which can be used in bankruptcy proceedings. + +[Netting Definition (investopedia.com)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/netting.asp) + +&#x200B; + +There are various types of netting are available; + +&#x200B; + +* Close out +* Settlement +* Netting by novation +* Multilateral + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +The one that is the most interesting? **Multilateral.** + +&#x200B; + +Multilateral netting is netting that involves more than two parties. In this case, a clearinghouse or central exchange is often used. Multilateral netting can also occur within one company with multiple subsidiaries. If the subs owe payments to each other for various amounts, they can each send their payments to a central corporate entity or netting center. The main office would net the invoices and the various currencies from the subsidiaries and make the net payment to the parties that are owed. Multilateral netting involves pooling the funds from two or more parties so that a more simplified invoicing and payment process can be achieved. + +&#x200B; + +Now I know what you're thinking, '*one company with multiple subsidiaries'.* I may be wrong but there would be no requirement to register with an account with the DTCC in such a way if it was all internal. + +&#x200B; + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +# What does this mean!? + +Well remember this lovely rule? SR-DTC-2021-004 and this wonderful DD? + +[Why We're STILL Trading Sideways and Why We Haven't Launched](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mu9xed/why_were_still_trading_sideways_and_why_we_havent/) + +&#x200B; + +I quote - + +**"DTC may, in extreme circumstances, borrow net credits from Participants secured by collateral of the defaulting Participant"** + +Again I quote [u/c-digs/](https://www.reddit.com/user/c-digs/) + +&#x200B; + +What if: + +1. You are a non-defaulting member +2. And You **know** that there are going to be member defaults +3. And you **know** that that there will be an auction for their assets at a market discount + +How would **you** prepare for this? Perhaps you'd want to have cash on hand to meet liquidity requirements and emerge from any collapse flush with assets? How might you go about this? + +&#x200B; + +**Well I think opening 3 new netting accounts would be perfect to prepare for this situation.** + +However, these don't come into effect until 05/03/2021. So make of that what you will. + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR - J.P Morgan opened three additional netting accounts with the DTCC on 04/19/2021. These generally have many different purposes although it I don't believe its' coincidental regarding the rule changes, increase in liquidity and ever impending doom of other DTCC members. This looks to be the groundwork to have means to profit off of the defaulting, over exposed members.** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +# Edits start with the newest at the top + +&#x200B; + +# Edit 4 - + +What a wonderful comment by u/Themeloncalling + +I feel that there is need for some counter-DD here. The Netting account is addressed to the Mortgage Backed Securities department. You know, the good folks responsible for the financial collapse, who like another MBS, are good at chopping things up and bringing them elsewhere. I believe the shitstorm here with netting accounts and the weekend meetings has to do with commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) having their books cooked. This article detailing overstating of CMBS income is a widespread problem: + +[https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/](https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/) + +The graph shown by the university researchers shows that the incomes of the leaseholders are 25% to 50% overstated, and delinquency rates are spiking at the same rate or worse compared to 2008 among CMBS - can you spot the banks that just issued record amounts of bonds this week in the first chart? A netting account would be necessary because the delinquencies are skyrocketing with covid support and SLR ending on March 31, 2021. I believe there is rampant shorting of the Treasury Bonds, and since the SLR now requires disclosure of Bonds again (which are heavily shorted), the banks now need to issue bonds to cover their bad bets and the overstated income of their mortgage owners - the netting account is where you settle your bad bets and pick up the pieces. + +To further reinforce this point, the Infinity Q hedge fund was liquidated because they overstated their NAV value by at least 30%: + +[https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/exclusive-new-yorks-infinity-q-winds-down-hedge-fund-valuation-issues-spread-2021-04-19/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/exclusive-new-yorks-infinity-q-winds-down-hedge-fund-valuation-issues-spread-2021-04-19/) + +The emergency appointment and meetings on the weekend would make sense given that there will be a lot of bagholders from the CMBS fallout that will begin to rear its head in May. The firewalls will be put in place to ensure one firm's toxic pile of CMBS does not become a systemic problem. + +Since we do need to tie GME into this somewhere, I believe the biggest impact will be ~~reduced~~ increased margin requirements for hedgies. As liquidity dries up, banks will reduce the amount they lend out on margin, forcing hedgies to close short positions. If they are already upside down on a short, let's say one where an $8 short position now owes over $145 a share, there's no way out except liquidation - a margin call that sets off all the dominoes. The catalyst for a margin call may not be anything to do with GME at all, it may be another cancer like CMBS that reduces the amount of margin available for hedgies. In any case, buy and hodl. + +# + +# _____________________________________________________ + +# EDIT 3 - Oh I'm sorry. I've been corrected. IT'S NOW SEVENTEEN. u/patthetuck + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/31yr8yywjcu61.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2e5be82960621386f594d828713201ef9e79460 + +&#x200B; + +Edit 2 - What a wonderful comment. u/Longjumping_College + +&#x200B; + +[Here's DTCC's page](https://www.dtcc.com/clearing-services/ficc-mbsd/msbd-netting) on *netting and settlement services.* + +[~~This kinda freaked me out~~](https://www.dtcc.com/charts/previous-12-months-volume-for-mbs) ~~when I saw it on that page as a essentials document to check....~~ + +*~~$103 trillion~~* ~~in mortgage backed securities..~~. + +&#x200B; + +The page? + +&#x200B; + +[Crayon go brr](https://preview.redd.it/kvnjndf3ecu61.png?width=884&format=png&auto=webp&s=897fdea90adcd04bde204fd93f22051c0f74622e) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +&#x200B; + +Edit - Oh yeah, BOFA added one too. Also CitiBank. Wonder what these accounts are used for... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kgtgknbhacu61.png?width=813&format=png&auto=webp&s=917b354a4476b27e3e6294fa2fe99e0fcb2b6946 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/cv0u1ynracu61.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=69894769014fd39bc81538700206c151949f5af3 + +&#x200B; +Following my last post, alot have been helpful and have suggested reading material which I have done. I recognise an Index fund is probably the best way to go and Vanguard seems to be a safe option. What I don't understand is whether there is any difference in me investing in Vanguard directly as opposed to via a trading app? The app will also let me invest in multiple ETFs but am I missing something? +I noticed a weird charge in my statement that pays my amazon store credit card off. It's listed as security 5. I didn't know what it was but the amount kept going up as my card balance went up. + +Called the number and the guy answered then danced around what the name of the company was and what they were charging me for. Eventually he slipped the word synchrony and that dinged in my head the bank that issues the amazon card. So i googled (all this while still trying to get this guy to tell me what this charge was for) and found that it's an automatic form of insurance that you are put on when you open the card. It's 1.66% of your balance monthly and you have to opt out by responding to a single piece of paper mail that gets sent sometime when you open the card. + +Now im getting frustrated that this guy isn't saying what the hell his company does when he just changes gear and says the full balance will be returned and the service stopped. + +It was over 1800 dollars since 2014 + +I'll have it back in 3 days i was told but check your statements people. + +Edit: even if you use the 0% for 12 months on large purchases (which is how i typically use my card) it still charges their fee every month + +edit2: i had to go to amazons chat this morning as it was still showing as being active. the representative was polite and disabled it immediately, saying the refund will come in a 1-3 weeks credited to my card. + +edit 3: I was credited back the money this morning. ~12 hours after chatting with support +Title says it all. I posted this in my main Discord too and it got pinned, I'm locked in boys. + +Price today started making my hands shaky. Now I have a new incentive for 💎🙏 + +Wish me luck! +Lately there has been a lot of global issues and inflation has certainly reared its head, and people are panicking like it’s some rabid animal that just got released to kill a bunch of sheeps dreams of getting rich. But its really not the issue at the moment, so let’s look at why. First off, we have bigger issues such as Chinas economy is slowing down and they appear to be doing everything they can to speed it back up but its just not working, we have people getting mortgages they shouldn’t be and can’t afford (In my shit opinion) and we have the US doing its own random shit which is always more important than whatever we are doing. + +Inflation is the necessary evil we need, because if we had deflation where things get cheaper the economy would go backwards and shit itself quite quickly. For anyone who doesn’t know much about inflation/deflation, imagine if you knew every year things like a car would get cheaper, well you wouldn’t bother buying one this year, because next year you could get a better one…and you can quickly see how this would domino out of control quite fast. So, deflation is not a solution for that simple reason, but inflation also needs to be controlled. If you want to give yourself a history lesson you can look at Nazi Germany where it got to the point it was cheaper to burn money than to go and buy the wood to burn, now obviously that’s a complete shit show and extreme, but even in current times we have countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela and even some like Argentina with insane inflation rates, and as you can imagine nobody wants to be like them. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/t9ty7ebnk0y71.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c384e67d9819b5a3d49ce9935121be208fa6fc7 + +So why does the RBA aim for 2-3%? + [https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html](https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/australias-inflation-target.html) + +Well, here’s a link to their website where they explain it in more detail and use fancy colours and graphs, but essentially stable and low inflation allows for stable and good economic growth, which is a win win for everyone. Now the issue is at what point do we need to figure out when to change it and how do we do that? Without going down the rabbit hole too much its all about interest rates, if inflation gets too high the RBA raises interest rates because people are less likely to borrow money and then money becomes more valuable. The opposite is also true, if the economy is doing shit, then interest rates get lowered…but wait we are at record low interest rates! EXACTLY!! Its almost as if inflation was expected, and if you combine this with the government also jumping and trying to boost the economy, a year or 2 of high inflation is expected. This doesn’t mean it’s a major issue, because if you are aiming for 2-3% long term and over the past 10 years we have not hit it, then a couple years of \~5% will help balance it out, but this is a bit of a shock and not what companies want. + +Companies who can’t control their prices don’t want inflation because it means less profits. Lets imagine you have a little lemonade stand which you sell a hint of coke in, now imagine the price to get all these supplies increases but you aren’t allowed to increase prices due to competition, regulations or whatever, well then you are the one who is going to get shit on and if you make no profits, you business dies and people will go another lemonade stand, even if it doesn’t have a hint of coke in it! So, if we can’t control the prices with high inflation what else can we do as a company? Well, you will notice debt is also cheaper surprise surprise, and so companies can take advantage of this and use the extra debt to force the growth and it’s a win win again!! Until you look at the balance sheet or interest rates rise, and they are forced to pay back more than they can afford and the company realises they are over leveraged. Once again just use the lemonade stand idea and imagine debt increases, your prices don’t and your profits go down…. well you will sink faster than the lemonade. + +So, What companies benefit from inflation rises? Companies which are resistant to inflation or companies which have pricing power and can adjust it if needed. To start with mining companies are usually quite inflation resistant because they are tied to the commodity price, this is why when we saw the recent commodity boom, even though inflation was a fear, nobody cared, and the stocks followed commodity prices. But companies which can take advantage of this are ones which are able to exploit the extra room for debt, increase prices, increase profit, and ultimately speed up their growth… okay yes yes, so what companies? Well, the one example I’m going to use is PME which I have done too much research and made not enough profit from, they have a tech which radiology and health care clinics can use and it has no competition essentially. So, if inflation rises, they can increase the prices as they make the money on a per usage basis, now obviously it’s a bit harder than that and there’s details, but that’s the general point. + [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlwyV3DYPHY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlwyV3DYPHY) + +Last and least important because they are boomer stonks are the banks, banks do well from interest rates increasing assuming one key factor, which is people can pay back their loans after rates have increased. If people can, then they get more money which means more profits which means more dividends and it’s a win win!! The issue comes in if people are over leveraged and start defaulting on loans and particularly mortgages which is what happened in the GFC, and the banks fucked themselves over and its really quiet a comedic shitshow from an outside perspective in terms of how the banks ruined themselves. + +Summary- + Ultimately inflation is not the devil you need to worry about, its China and the US because their economies are much more important globally and their growth is directly tied to us. If we have a year or two of inflation at 5%, presuming your company has quality management and doesn’t get fucked during the period, then it could provide some buying opportunities or just a different environment. Now this post doesn’t really explore the issue of interest rates rising/declining because this would just drag on, but ill probably do one on interest rates one day. The main thing to look at though is when will interest rates rise, how will this impact my company and are they over leveraged in terms of debt? If your company will do fine during inflationary periods and they are not over leveraged, then you shouldn’t be panicking wondering when the world will collapse. Just buy companies you like when you see good value and then figure the rest out, worrying about inflation is the RBAs job and they can’t even do that, so what chance have you got? Also its nice to be back retards +National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) has frozen the accounts of three foreign funds — Albula Investment Fund, Cresta Fund and APMS Investment Fund — which together own over ₹43,500 crore worth of shares in four Adani Group companies. These accounts were frozen on or before May 31, as per the depository’s website. +https://outline.com/MyKLyT + +update: https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/adani-group-calls-reports-of-freezing-of-investors-accounts-erroneous/article34812046.ece + +https://www.adani.com/Newsroom/Media-Release/media-clarification-on-3-fpis-owning-adani-shares-frozen + +https://nsdl.co.in/nsdlnews/accounts-frozen.php + +https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/52e4429c-76c6-4dc0-96e0-8b4b40d012dd.pdf + +https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=83a5a32b-3930-490a-b293-b7150d679056 +What papers did you read (about) that caught you off guard, make you think differently about something you cared about, or solve a problem so creatively you felt privy to a “eureka” moment? +[Federal judge rules eviction moratorium is unconstitutional](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/25/politics/judge-evictions-moratorium-unconstitutional/index.html) + +“In October, a group of Texas landlords and property owners sued the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services over the Eviction Moratorium Order that was issued by the Trump administration in September.” +A fairly recent paper by Sylvain Catherine et al, "Social Security and Trends in Inequality" argues that the share of wealth accruing to the top 0.1% of the US population, when adjusted for Social Security benefits, has actually declined in the US. A further paper by Mathew Smith et al, "Top Wealth in America", shows that even without Social Security, inequality in the US has remained relatively flat for the last decade or so. + + [https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/social-security-and-trends-in-inequality.html](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/social-security-and-trends-in-inequality.html) + + [http://ericzwick.com/wealth/wealth.pdf](http://ericzwick.com/wealth/wealth.pdf) + +This completely flies against the current political narrative in the United States. Your thoughts on this topic? +I don’t know if this kind of post is allowed, apologies if not. Background: My parents never had much money, old/small house, bought everything at thrift stores, no vacations etc. However, I and siblings all had a custodial account set up when we were born. We’d get stock gifts from grandparents for holidays/graduations. We’d talk about the stock market and how our accounts were growing. I also started working on the family paper route (when those were a thing) as soon as i could fold/wrap so Ive had some kind of small, steady income for as long as I can remember + +Every couple months my parents would tell me my dividends came in and asked me if I wanted the cash spending money or deposit it to my brokerage and buy some stock. Getting a dividend check as a 6 yr old felt like a normal part of life until I brought it up causally to my friends at school one time and you can imagine how that conversation went + +Well I’m 25 now and that account has had some big winners over the last 25 yrs, and some unbelievable growth over the last 5. I’m basically on-track to retire early because of it. Not because of anything I did but just because they had the foresight to set me up for financial freedom. Thanks for reading. +From 2-4%, rental yields are one of the lowest in the world. + +In USA, its usually 8-12%, that too with 2% home loan rates. + +if you are getting only 2-3% of the total property value's worth of rent in a year, it is far less than FDs (6%) and stock index funds(11-13%) + +add maintenance, taxes on rent, etc. you are basically loosing money. + +After 20 years, most apartments turn into pretty bad shape. their resale value drops and so does the rent (who would pay top rent for a 20 year old apartment) ? + +So why do IT sector folks keep buying apartments on EMI in bangalore if the EMI itself cannot be paid using rent (say EMI is 25k, rent is just 12k) + + +[https://www.99acres.com/articles/99acres-insite-5-best-localities-to-earn-high-rental-returns-in-bangalore.html](https://www.99acres.com/articles/99acres-insite-5-best-localities-to-earn-high-rental-returns-in-bangalore.html) +Hi everyone, really glad that i found out this sub. I have a basic knowledge of finance, programming and ML. I want to explore the algo trading side but i am not sure where to start from. Would request you guys to guide me on this with any resources to take references from in future + +Like many, my employer furloughed about 75% of its staff due to Corona in April. My boss informed me that the company is (in his words) restructuring and if I return to work my salary would be X amount, which is about 45% less than what it was. However, I can receive about 7% commission of online sales that I assist with. I would basically be doing my old job, plus my assisting with online chat. + +I guess I am wondering if anyone has been in this situation or can give me advice on what I should do? Is this a good offer or should I run for the hills? + +EDIT: I don’t feel comfortable disclosing too much information about my job. + +Salary was, $40,000. Would now be $22,0000 plus commission. (These are not the true numbers. I gave these figures for anonymity. The current pay would just meet legal range for salary. I apologize for the confusion) + +Average sale could be $800-$5000 + + +There are other associates on site who’s actual job is sales so I’m not sure how often I would have a sale. + +Also, I am currently on unemployment and have been since being furloughed. +Sometimes I might play some CS while I code but that's about it. I just don't find video games interesting anymore after I discovered day trading. Is this true for anyone else? +I have seen this title all over the internet. And i didn't believe it at first due to the mixed reviews. However i can now confirm they WILL try and scam you at all costs. + + +I had a high leverage position open on the nasdaq100 and when the market volatility went up and i start losing a little money i tried to close it. ETORO DIDN'T LET ME. After 30 minutes of not being able to close my position it hit it's SL (Stop loss), which means i lose 50% of my position. All because i couldn't close at a small loss of 1 or 2 percent. + + +I made a ticket and showed valid evidence of my position not closing and what was their response? IT HIT THE STOP LOSS. Their excuse for this was that it validly hit the stop loss. + + +They will eventually get shut down for these "website breaking" scams and lots will lose money when the company gets shut down. + + +AVOID AT ALL COSTS. + + +If anyone has any questions please comment. + +Thanks. +Follow Friday + + +Im not sure if this post is allowed or not but in the world of Canadian Microcap stocks there are a few accounts who are early and that get it right time after time. My 3 top follow accounts for a healthy mix of Technical Analysis and Fundamentals with killer calls are as follows... Must follows in my opinion. Who are yours? + + +[https://twitter.com/AllStreetsWolf](https://twitter.com/AllStreetsWolf) + + +[https://twitter.com/TWealthyLion](https://twitter.com/TWealthyLion) + + +[https://twitter.com/BigRig\_Trader](https://twitter.com/BigRig_Trader) +Hey Reddit, + +My long term boyfriend of 11 years' mom has been struggling financially for the past couple of years and has no income except for social security. + +My partner has been giving her around $1400 per month. This is starting to become a financial burden on us and has been causing him to experience anxiety, trouble sleeping, and depression as he doesn't know what to do for his mom. He's an only child and his mom is single so he feels like he's the only help for her. They've both got no extended family and it's literally just them. + +She owns her own home, has $60k left on the mortgage for a home valued at around $450k. She also has around $60k in credit card debt. Her social security is around $1100 per month. She has a health insurance monthly payment of $900 per month and misc bills around $400 per month. + +We are advising that she sells her home as we'll no longer be able to help her with payments and she is firm on not wanting to do so until summer. We don't believe she'll be able to keep going that long and even if she were to somehow, after she sells she probably couldn't afford a new home or condo to buy with her home funds. + + She's absolutely terrible with money and spends it fritherously. She refuses to get a part time job and will not work (hasn't worked a job since she was in her 20's - she was a stay at home mom - is 63 now.) We've recommended that she gets a roommate to help with the bills and she's unwilling to do that as well. She's extremely stubborn. Even the $900 insurance bill is not negotiable as she thinks it's the best health care available and won't accept being on government benefits. (She doesn't even go to the doctor and hasn't used her healthcare in several years -even for doctor visits or medication) + +My partner said absolutely under no circumstance would he allow her to move in with us as he can't stand being around his mom for long periods of time) + +What can he do to help protect her future and keep us from having to help her? Every bit of advice he's given goes in one ear and out the other. + +Thanks for reading! +I'm in the camp that doesn't see this as a bubble akin to what we saw in the housing crisis, but I do see another problem created by these higher tuition prices. Since financial institutions can transfer bad student loans to the federal government without taking a loss, I can't see rising student loan defaults causing a financial crisis like we saw in 2008. This situation seems like it would compound the sovereign debt crisis, but I don't think it will wreck the financial industry like the real estate bubble. + +However, this situation does appear to cause other problems. As of now, people can't lessen their student loan debt through bankruptcy. Even after the bad loans are transferred to the federal government, those students are still on the hook for paying the government back over their lifetime. So what we seem to have here is a generation of students having to pay much more for tuition with bleak job prospects after graduation. In essence, these people will be paying back the government for many years and will have less money left over to buy other goods and services, or to save/invest for retirement. This situation seems destined to result in an economic standstill relative to the present amount of economic activity if nothing is done. + +How can a country survive if its educated class is constantly paying down massive student loan debt? +Hey everyone, + +I am a former Wall Street trader who has recently started writing weekly finance articles (initially for my friends). The purpose of this project is to democratise knowledge, and to help as many people become more financially literate. This is my means of giving back to the community, with the sole aim of bringing objectivity back into the space. + +Given that I am likely to run out of topics in the imminent future, I would love to hear from the community what topics are highly sought after. Happy to share everything I know about trading, investing, and decision making. + +Feel free to post below, or fill in my form here: [https://forms.gle/Ebcp7SQBKQ54jErC8](https://forms.gle/Ebcp7SQBKQ54jErC8) (I will not be collecting any e-mail addresses - this is purely for research). +Why splitting up your money on different tokens while Compact offers you the chance to get all the aspects of DeFi in one token? That’s what Compact stands for. + +A revolution comes up with this new token. The liquidity providing mechanism ensures always to strengthen its liquidity pool that is locked for one year. The idea is to get everyone into a winning position. With the sharing feature it rewards you as a holder every time there’s a transaction. For each aspect there is a special wallet. One is for the marketing so it never runs out of funds to promote this great token. Another wallet is for the charity aspect. They want to support charity projects all around the world. + +Their main focus is on children’s hospices. We already got attention by the IAHPC which is a non-profit organization dedicated to advancing and developing hospice and palliative care worldwide. + +Tokenomics: + +Original supply: 100,00,000,000 + +Presale: 50,000,000,000 + +Dev wallet: 8,000,000,000 + +Total tax on each swap: 12% + +Distribution: 3% + +Liquidity Pool: 3% + +Marketing: 2% + +Charity: 2% + +Events: 2% + +Lastly there is a special feature exclusively for the hodlers ! the event wallet. This wallet is providing funds for airdrops, community events, games, a lottery and much more. + +Be part of a great project and community and join $CPAC! + +Links⬇️ + +Website: https://www.compactcrypto.com + +Telegram: https://t.me/compactcrypto + +Twitter: https://twitter.com/CompactCrypto +Thought this was pretty interesting. An article today saying that many Brits have less than £500 of money in their accounts. + +80% seems worryingly high. + +https://www.cityam.com/lloyds-chief-warns-80-per-cent-of-all-brits-have-less-than-500-in-their-account-as-army-of-people-in-debt-skyrockets/ +*First published this on my newsletter Boring Money. Do visit the original link and subscribe if you like read this! I write about finance in India in a way that's fun and enjoyable but doesn't dumb down the subject matter. Finance can be fun!* + +[*https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee*](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee) + +\-- + +A quirky aspect of modern financial systems is that it is incredibly difficult to hold cash as *cash*. Sure, you could withdraw ₹10,000 ($120) and keep it in your wallet. But make that ₹10 crores ($1.2 million) and the only acceptable way to store this cash is in shady suitcases. Possible, yes, but extremely inconvenient. + +The way modern financial systems work is that any money you deposit in your bank account is no longer *cash* but an obligation. From the bank to you. You’re really loaning money to your bank in return for which the bank pays you some interest. Your bank then uses your deposits to make loans to *its* customers and gets some interest from them. There is obviously a risk here, even if small. If the bank’s customers don’t pay back, your deposits could be at risk. Your bank *could* go bust. It’s the regulator’s, the RBI’s, job to ensure this doesn’t happen. And if it does happen, to figure a workaround—but it could definitely happen1 + +Which is why, in theory, money as deposits in your bank differs from cash in your hand. Physical cash is also an obligation—but from the RBI to you. Even if all banks went bust, RBI’s promise to you would still stand and you can get your money’s worth[2](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee#footnote-2). + +All of this is fascinating but also pointless in any well-functioning financial system. Scheduled banks in India aren’t going bust overnight. And when they’ve done, the RBI has handled the situation [reasonably well](https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/yes-bank-in-rbi-bailout-sbi-to-pick-up-49-stake-for-2-450-crore/article61965997.ece) and customers [haven’t lost money](https://indianexpress.com/article/business/banking-and-finance/lakshmi-vilas-bank-depositors-money-safe-says-rbi-appointed-administrator-7056078/). For all practical purposes, having that digit show up in your bank account is as good as holding physical cash in your hand. Just a lot more convenient! + +If you’ve kept up with the news the last month and half, you’d know that the RBI is [now piloting ways to store ](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/save/rbi-retail-digital-rupee-pilot-starts-on-december-1-can-you-use-e-rupee/articleshow/95906930.cms)[*cash* ](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/save/rbi-retail-digital-rupee-pilot-starts-on-december-1-can-you-use-e-rupee/articleshow/95906930.cms)[digitally](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/save/rbi-retail-digital-rupee-pilot-starts-on-december-1-can-you-use-e-rupee/articleshow/95906930.cms). It calls this the eRupee or e₹, a digital form of the rupee itself. This differs from money in your bank account in the manner that I described above. If you have ₹100 in your bank account and convert it to e₹100[3](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee#footnote-3) this is what happens behind the scenes: + +1. Your bank opens its ledger and deletes its debt obligation to you (deposits are loans from you to the bank!) +2. The bank digs out its stash of eRupees that it’s stored on a hard disk somewhere. The RBI has given the bank “eRupees” just as it gives the bank physical rupees +3. Bank hands over the eRupees to you in your e-wallet! Just like it does with cash. The bank has nothing to do with your money now and your relationship is directly with the RBI, who has “printed” these eRupees + +Again, if you’re in a sound financial system, you don’t really care if you have cash or a debt obligation from a bank. The RBI is finding it difficult to answer why the eRupee is needed when nearly instantaneous digital payments already exist. From [Bloomberg Quint](https://www.bqprime.com/business/how-is-e-rupee-different-from-upi-rbi-explains): + +>The e-rupee, India's CBDC, will distinguish itself from the UPI in the way transactions move between two parties, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. While the UPI involves the movement of funds between two bank accounts, the CBDC will instead move funds from one party's wallet—on their mobile phone—to the other's, he said. +"There is no routing, and there is no intermediation by the bank," Das said during the press conference after the monetary policy announcement. While banks will issue the CBDC to the users, they won't be involved in the transaction, as opposed to the UPI, which requires the transmission of messages between the payment platforms and banks. +**"E-rupee is money. UPI is a payment method**," said Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar. It's possible for two private parties to provide wallets, and money can move between those, he said, adding that it wouldn't be possible using the UPI. "We'll set up the base system, and then the private sector can innovate." + +“E-rupee is money. UPI is a payment method,”��� umm, okay. If I’m waiting in line waiting to buy apple juice, should I care? + +**Incentives, utility, or neither?** + +If you’re a bank, what you care about most is getting your customers to deposit money (that is, loan you money). You pay them a small interest and in turn lend out money for a much higher interest rate. That’s your entire business model. Ideally, your customers would just put tons of money and let it sit there untouched. + +But that’s far from what customers want from banks—they also want to transfer money around to pay for stuff. Which is fine! If you make it easy and seamless for your customers to make and receive payments, it’s a good thing. Your customers will be moving money across banks but the money will be *inside* the system. If one of your customer is paying someone from another bank, then there’s another receiving money. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter because it evens out. The money’s in the system! + +With the eRupee, that changes. Customers can make payments back-and-forth without banks coming into the picture. This isn’t good for banks—they need those deposits to be in the system! + +But also, what’s in it for the customer? If I can buy my apple juice without visiting an ATM… that’s good enough for me? + +Something that keeps coming up when the RBI speaks about the benefits of the eRupee is that it will help with financial inclusion. The story goes that holding money digitally is good and convenient. But no matter how hard everyone tries a large chunk of India’s population wants little to do with banks and continues using cash. + +It’s hard to imagine a scenario where people who’ve been averse to bank accounts suddenly decide to lose their inhibition to technology and financial systems because… the money in your bank account is a debt obligation while the eRupee comes directly from the RBI. People who like cash like it *because* it’s not digital. Cash is nice to touch, feel, and hold. You can stash it in your wallet or inside your mattress, if that’s your thing. It’s not a number on your screen that can disappear with an accidental press of a button. + +Of course, others like cash not because it’s nice to hold but because it’s difficult to trace[4](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee#footnote-4). I don’t even mean like terrorists and stuff. Small businesses love cash because it lets them get away from paying tax. Would the eRupee allow people to commit tax fraud? I feel that this is an important use-case that the RBI needs to replicate with the eRupee if it wants adoption. “Commit tax fraud, just do it digitally!” sounds like a good pitch[5](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee#footnote-5). + +*If you liked reading this do visit the original link and subscribe!* [*https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee*](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/rbi-cbdc-erupee) +I first posted this in poverty finance, as I’m a long time Detroit native, and many would consider me disenfranchised. + +In 2013 my mother and I purchased a house for the family for $15,000. We had a rent-to -own agreement and paid the property off fully by 2017. We also have put about $60k over the past 8 years into the home, putting the total physical investment right around 75k. Since then, the the property’s value has increased exponentially. I know I purchased the home when the market was at a record low, and I know since the pandemic my home is most likely at peak value. + +Collectively my mother and I make slightly over 30k. I don’t live with the family, but we engage and work together daily. The fact that it’s valued at 425k makes me inclined to sell while the markets up. + +Any thoughts? This has been an extreme morale boost for the family after decades of mediocrity. If I sell the house my plan after taxes and fees is to purchase a smaller home for the family and take out 20k for survival to hold us over. though the last decade has been rough I’m very close to making 40k a year, in 7 months I will finish my current apprenticeship building irrigation systems. My field I fell into is craft/sustainable cultivation and agriculture. + +My mother tutors and cares for my siblings. + +I figure i by another house with cash, repair my credit as I assimilate into my new job, repair my credit/clear debt and then look into acquiring a rental duplex. After this, my plan is to just take it slow and try to build up my real estate portfolio. + +Then again, my ideas/calculations could be totally wrong for my situation. + +Any pointers or advice is greatly appreciated. Im young I don’t know what I’m doing, I wanna give my sisters and brothers something different. Peace and love. +People are attracted to status and things like Supreme T-shirts that cost $200 and I was wondering, what if people ONLY bought items that have utilitarian value that is equal to that item's price? My guess is that the amount of debt would be decreased by billions and there would be more generational wealth through savings, but since I only took one Economics class in college I don't know the theoretical implications of it. But I was just thinking that the culture of "keeping up with the Joneses" has a bad effect on the economy but wanted to know of any economics professors/ economists have written about this topic because I want to know more about it. +I feel like I’m seeing way too many posts where the main goal appears to be more masturbatory/ego-stroking than adding anything of real value or asking legitimate questions. I assume this falls into “no self promotion” but it’s like every other post now. + +E.g. “I got $20 million from my IPO can I afford a $1 million condo and FIRE?” is just cringe. Or asking a question for the sole purpose of sharing your NW when it’s clear the OP already knows the answer to their own question but just want a vehicle to ego stoke to. +There’s only one directive no matter what, and that’s to carry on hodling. + +That’s not to say that the bias confirmation helps, and it’s very educational and entertaining along the way; but being content and comfortable just patiently waiting is the norm and standard response to anything other than the MOASS. + + +**Edit 1:** I never thought I’d actually have to edit a post to thank kind internet strangers for their awards, and say “well this blew up” and “RIP inbox”. I feel like a true Redditor now. I can feel the love. + +Please, if you’re wanting to give paid awards to this post, instead buy some more (fractional) GME or donate to your favourite charity. + +**Edit 2:** So, some bot just messaged me to say I’ve made it to the front page of Reddit. Not sure how to take this news. Slightly overwhelmed and feeling the love fellow apes. + +I’m thankful to have made a connection with so many of you with my post. It just shows how many of us “zen apes” are genuinely out there. +If you look at the volume of options OTM on 4/16/21 you will notice that it is much higher than any other time throughout the history of the stock. + +It is my belief that DFV knows that Shitidel has no long positions in GME and only has calls/puts and shorts on GME. When your options expire OTM and you have not other positions in the stock but shorts you literally have NOTHING....... + +It makes sense as to why the shorts have been dragging it out this long. You never give up on an option until it expires. If there’s a chance there’s a chance and you still have skin in the game. But if your options expire OTM and you have no long positions in the stock (which Shitedel does NOT) you have no leg left to stand on and no more skin in the game. Nothing else you can do but cover your short positions. + +This also might be why you see Shitedel working all weekend and all hours of the night. They don’t have any skin left in the game and they don’t have any more legs to stand on. They have nothing left to fight for. + +The week of April 16, 2020 the stock was $4.85 per share and going down. Why not buy you puts then for a year (Doesn’t matter it’s going Bankrupt right) which all leads to 4/16/21. I think DFV knows this information and matched their puts with calls and being that he on the winning side of the equation he exercised his options and quadrupled down. He knows Shitedel no longer has any skin in the game and no longer has anything to fight for. The stock is not going bankrupt and they no longer have ANY positions on GME.. + +Before they lost their option positions they were able to use a technique called ARBITRAGE. Which basically means simultaneous buy and selling of stocks to take advantage of differing prices of the same asset. In a sense they could use the options they had to manipulate the price. NOW THEY DON”T HAVE THAT ABILITY AND DEEP FUCKING VALUE KNOWS IT!!!!! + +In 2017 Hedge funds started shorting Toys R Us and in 2018 of March they went bankrupt. Looks like it take about a year to win if you’re a hedge fund. + +LINKS: + +[GME PUTS OTM on 4/16/21 MASSIVE AMOUNT ](https://gme.crazyawesomecompany.com) + +[PRICE HISTORY OF GME FROM A YEAR AGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/) + +[ARBITRAGE AS A TACTIC TO MANIPULATE PRICE](https://thehedgefundjournal.com/the-options-landscape-for-hedge-funds/) + +[WHY HEDGIES THOUGHT BUYING PUTS AT THIS TIME A YEAR AGO WAS A GOOD BET](https://i0.wp.com/slopeofhope.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/origpurch.png?ssl=1) + + +TL:DR Hedge funds have been fighting because they had a leg to stand on with their PUT options. They expired OTM last Friday and now they don’t have anything left in the stock but their shorts. They cannot use Arbitrage to manipulate the price anymore because they not longer have a position in GME. DFV knows this and went stride for stride with them and is on the winning side!!! + +FEEL FREE TO POKE HOLES IN THIS BUT DAMN ITS KIND OF OBVIOUS!!! + + +EDIT 1: I don't know what the fuck is going on with all the awards. I'm just a fucking idiot who thought of this on the treadmill. I have not awarded a single award but god bless it I have't ever seen so many. + +I guess it's not bad for my first "these/DD attempt" 🤷🏻‍♂️ + +EDIT 2: I POSTED THIS COMMENT "I don't think they have enough to keep fighting. And I speculate that DFV knows that better than anyone." AND GOT THE ALL SEEING EYE AWARD WITH THE SIMPLE COMMENT "YES". +Take it for what it's worth. + +EDIT 3: I POSTED THIS COMMENT "Kind of scary how obvious it is.... LOL" I GOT THE ALL SEEING EYE AWARD WITH THE COMMENT "VERY SCARY" +Hey everyone! + +Thank you for showing so much support over the past few months. I took some time away, started a new job (not with u/dlauer FYI), and finished up with the documentaries which should be coming out pretty soon. + +For those who are wondering: + +I'm still 100% bullish on the stonk + +I'm still HODLing + +I've never sold- never will. + +DIAMOND.F*CKING.HANDS + +#GMEtoTheMoon 🚀 💎 +Many people I see go into a store to buy one or two things, and come out with way more than they anticipated, with the excuse "oh I saved money! It was all on sale!". + +If you we're going to get the item anyway, yes you saved money, but if you didn't plan on it, you still spent money you didn't have to. + +EDIT: You could also set a budget, $150 for example. If you're going into a store, don't bring your card, only bring cash so you're not tempted to go over your limit. (Edit of an edit: Someone mentioned you could miss out on some rewards or promotions if you don't have your card, so I wonder what another way to limit yourself other than willpower would be?) + +EDIT 2: Thank you all so much for the support on this post, I tried replying to the comments at the start but it became overwhelming with the amount of comments coming in, thank you all for your input and advice to others! + +ANOTHER EDIT: Thank you kind one for the gold! My first ever <3 +*Foreword: Not a guide on how to win money. This is my journey on how I avoided losing more money and came to point 5. after all my wins/losses as my ultimate investment strategy* + +Yes, at one point I was new to investing. Saw people becoming millionaires from GME, everyone making money in the biggest bull run in the history of the stock market and thought what could go wrong making a quick buck from going in and out? + +I mean, stocks can only down -100% but can go up an infinite amount, right? I could be like one of those meme lords posting their 25 bags. Easy. Just follow the money. + +Soon realised I was following the cunts. + +New people here are the cunts in Wolf of Wall Street getting sucked into buying Aerotyne International based on a stranger's cold call. + +"Aerotyne International is a cutting-edge tech firm out of the Midwest, awaiting imminent patent approval on a new generation of radar equipment". + +These were my biggest dogs from following anonymous advice on reddit from people who got in early and pumped like a Packo Pump before selling (Background: Packo produces centrifugal pump with a force of 2 million cows. Packo Pumps has just successfully produced and tested its biggest pump ever. This colossus weighs 1.6 ton is driven by a motor of 200 kW): + +XST/SGC: -$13.5k + +BPH/BUY: -$2k + +IBG: -$1.5k + +BNPL: -$1.2k + +BET: -$1k + +And I'm happy to report that after 10 months, 2 days and 13 hours later I've officially got back all of these losses with: + +CXO: +$7k + +IHL: +$7k + +PEN: +$2.5k + +BET: +$1k + +IPD: +$1k + +LKE: +$800 + +All thanks to a few key lessons which I hope helps newbies: + +1. **Stay the fuck away from Oil and Gas.** Kings of pump and dumps. By the time you hear about it on Reddit, you're probably at the top of a pump, and you're left picking up the trash on HC with boomers saying they'll hold for 20 years when the company is down 90% after drilling to find cement instead of gas. +2. **Find out why the price is going up**. It's either because of Fundamental Analysis (FA) from news/announcements or it's going up in anticipation of news. If it's the latter, it's a **speculation pump**, people are going to dump the price when the news is released. Everyone and their mother already knows about the news so you're not going to get new buyers. People are going to ride the wave and dump to secure profits. +3. **Don't trade**. Unless you're rich, bored and have money to spare. Very, very difficult to make money trading due to high brokerage fees and any gains are massively taxed from CGT. I day traded BET in its massive run up with a tiny capital, and lost it all. It was a spec pump and was dumped on news. If you're gonna trade, **always use platform with stop losses**. +4. **Know when positive sentiment is over**. Hint: BNPL. Look at shorts. If it's shorted heaps, you're fuk. +5. Lastly and most importantly. **Don't be a lazy cunt**. Do some **research** and **hold in good companies or sectors that you see 5-bagging in a few years**. Research what they're planning, where the sector is going, call them up and ask questions if you need, find out how their management are like. And just hold. And check how much cash they have in the bank, how diluted shares are and if they’re gonna need more and management will be yelling “CAP RAISE CAP RAISE CAP RAISE! PRICES HAVE NEVER BEEN LOWER!” + +Really easy to overlook 5. but important to note that I'd have had the biggest gains from just holding in CXO, LKE, IHL and PEN. I traded and got back my $16k but if I'd held I'd be up $50k. The higher price you buy, the less you make. Buying low and holding is the way to go imo. + +I barely post here because I've set my long positions into companies I researched and see at least 5-bagging in 5 years. I'm not bothered by day-to-day fluctuations. **I'll only sell if fundamentals change.** Or if I'm homeless + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: Newbies don't be like John yoloing into Aerotyne International +Please don’t downvote me. I am simply trying to understand. + Do any of you not for guilty for attempting to charge people for shelter during a global pandemic in which everyone is told to stay home? I understand the simpleton arguments like “how can someone not afford one months rent without income” and “you shouldn’t have signed the lease if you can’t afford it”. But, in my eyes those arguments don’t hold any validity during the unprecedented times we live in. The average American family couldn’t afford a $400 emergency before this even happened, so how can they be expected to handle an entire months rent, groceries, utilities, and all other payments when so many peoples jobs have closed? How can you genuinely believe it is morally justified to charge people for the one place that provides them safety in a time like this? + +EDIT: +I’d like to thank all of you that took the time to attempt to have a constructive conversation about this. Ive learned a lot from posting this and I’m hoping other have as well. +My biggest takeaways are that landlords shouldn’t be demonized during this time bc many of you are struggling as well (which is something I hadn’t really thought about before), and our (renters and landlords) issues are not with each other, but are instead with banks, mortgage companies, utility companies, and any other agency that is forcing people (renters and landlords) to pay during a global pandemic. + +I’m hoping this post allows for us to empathize with one another more as well as use our collective frustration to make systemic changes happen that benefit all people rather than corporations. Once again, thank you to all that helped make this post productive. Stay safe y’all. Solidarity. +I have bounced around on this sub for the past few months and I really to have to say it’s disappointing. + +I mostly index, because I recognize few people can beat the market. I pick stocks for 5% of my portfolio and thought this would be a breath of fresh air compared to r/stocks. I was wrong. This sub really seems to be pretty low quality in terms of discussion, and many people seem to chase returns without a fundamental understanding of investing. + +Most people seem to be under the impression that “big company” + “low PE” = great investment. The impulse to chase the most recent shiny thing in the news is so clear. + +For a sub that really presents itself on a model made popular by Warren Buffet, many don’t seem to follow his philosophy at all. +Hello + +I'm an unproven value investor. + +My qualifications are that I've recently read all the industry standard books on this topic. + +I only have two investments, BABA and VZ. Rest of the money is hard cash. + +Buffet says why put your money in your second best idea when you can in your first. + +I have not changed my views on BABA. Still find it to be an awesome business. About VIE structure, I don't think I'll be hurt by that as an investor (but who knows). + +So is it worth adding more at this point? Or should I sit still? 😅 +In the year 2000 the minimum wage in the UK was £3.60. It has in the 21 years since risen to £8.91 - an increase of 147.5% + +Meanwhile: the average home in 2000 cost £89,597. It has since risen to £266,000, an increase of 197% + +This disparity between wages and house prices points toward greater inequality as poor families find it harder to become home owners. + +The story is much the same all over the world. What is the reason behind this disparity and what might be the solution? +I read Air India used to be pretty good before it was nationalized and started needing massive subsidies to get by. Nowadays it is one of the worst airlines. This gave me the impression that privatized airlines would do much better than Nationalized ones, yet Emirates is massively profitable and an incredible experience and is actually Nationalized. Adding to my confusion, Etihad is a nationalized airline which was also a luxurious experience, yet they financially do terrible! Plus, there are plenty of private airlines that also offer mediocre experiences and are sometimes unprofitable. So what gives? Could someone explain what is going on, and if privatization is better for airlines, or nationalization? +Looks like inflation is about to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. If I can actually afford to invest anything, I'm going to be hedging against the pound. Maybe I'll start investing in wood burners as well /s. + +Full article from the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/778e65e1-6ec5-4fd7-98d5-9d701eb29567): + +UK inflation is on course to hit 18.6 per cent in January — the highest peak in almost half a century — because of soaring wholesale gas prices, according to a new forecast from Citigroup based on the latest market prices. + +The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”. + +“We now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18 per cent in January,” said Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citi. That would be higher than the peak of inflation after the second Opec oil shock of 1979 when CPI reached 17.8 per cent, according to estimates from the Office for National Statistics. + +Such a rate of inflation would squeeze household incomes hard and further push the UK economy into recession, but Nabarro said the scale of the likely inflation would push the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy further. + +UK and European wholesale natural gas prices are already trading at close to 10 times normal levels and other forecasters have also raised their inflation predictions. + +Goldman Sachs and EY said they expected an inflation rate of at least 15 per cent around the start of next year and the Bank of England said this month that inflation would exceed 13 per cent towards the end of the year. + +The energy regulator Ofgem will on Friday announce the energy price cap for the period between October and January, which most analysts expect to rise to more than £3,500 for a household with average usage of energy — an increase of 75 per cent on current levels. + +Based on the latest wholesale costs, Citi expects a higher figure for the fourth quarter of £3,717 with forecasts for 2023 looking to be “substantially greater”. + +Nabarro said Citi’s new forecasts had taken account of a 25 per cent increase in wholesale gas prices last week and a 7 per cent rise in wholesale electricity prices. + +“Even with the economy softening, last week’s data reaffirmed the continued risk of pass through from headline inflation into wage and domestic price setting could accelerate,” he said. +-Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren proposes raising $1 trillion in government revenue from a new tax on profits of the largest corporations. + +-The proposed surtax would prevent Amazon and other companies with profits exceeding $100 million from wiping out their tax liabilities altogether. + +-Instead of taxable corporate income as defined by the IRS, the 7% surtax would apply to profits companies report to their investors. + +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/elizabeth-warren-targets-corporate-profits-with-new-7percent-surtax-proposal.html +**EDIT:** u/MrGold93 **messaged me and pointed out an error with the 2015 calculation. I reported $1,236,536,000 worth of "securities sold, not yet purchased", but this is actually their "securities sold under agreements to repurchase" (AKA Repo liability). I calculated this as 15.7% of total liabilities, when it should have been $6,464,142,000- 82% of total liabilities. I read through the statement too quickly and reported the wrong line, so thank you to** u/MrGold93 **for the fact-check!** + +https://preview.redd.it/x78oq389kbl81.jpg?width=807&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c1be4249e15c04d84d106d2b6fe45b795b8b6e76 + +**TL:DR** + +**Citadel Securities pumps up their short position during 2021 and Citadel Advisors is even more fuller of hot air than in 2020. They also had a FINRA orgy with 14 different exchanges over erroneous pricing practices between 2014 and 2020.** \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +It's FINALLY HERE.. + +At long last, Citadel Securities has published their financials for 2021 and I've done me a dabble or two. If you haven't read [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/), please do so before reading on. + +Before I go balls-deep into this b\*tch, let me start off by updating our total [brokercheck.finra.org](https://brokercheck.finra.org) report on Citadel Securities. At the time of writing my first piece back in March 2021, we were at 58 total violations. As of writing, Citadel Securities has achieved another **15 violations**, bringing Kenny's grand total to [73](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_116797.pdf). + +\*light applause\* + +To be fair, 14 of these violations were for the same thing... they were just hit by 14 different exchanges at the same time... \*Insert black guys & blonde girl meme\* + +**NASDAQ MRX, LLC** + +**CBOE EDGX Exchange, INC** + +**CBOE BZX Exchange, INC** + +**CBOE BYX Exchange, INC** + +**CBOE EDGA Exchange, INC** + +**NAXDAQ ISE, LLC** + +**NASDAQ Options Market, LLC** + +**NASDAQ GEMX, LLC** + +**NASDAQ Stock Market** + +**NASDAQ PHLX, LLC** + +**NASDAQ BX, INC** + +**NYSE** + +**NYSE ARCA, INC** + +**NYSE National, INC** + +Their other violation from 3/2021 was covered in my post ['Walkin Like A Duck'](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ml48ov/walkin_like_a_duck_talkin_like_a_duck/).. Check it out. + +...Anyway.. + +If my maff is correct, that means Kenny G did himself a heckin' naughty and racked up another **25.86% of his TOTAL violations in just one year**. + +\*little bigger applause\*. + +Now let's remember, although these violations were published in December 2021, they were an accumulation of issues from prior years. In fact, the earliest date I found was August 15th, 2014 and the most recent was in May or June 2020.. **So that's 1 issue, reported by 14 different exchanges, across 6 years, totaling... $225,000** \*little fart noise\* + +Before I make anyone think the sky is falling- this is NOT a monumental fine.. This is just what has been reported by FINRA during 2021. I'll explain why I find it interesting in a sec but I need to preface these things because I know someone out there will say *"tHaTs NoT tHaT bIg Of A dEaL, RoBiNhOoD hAd A bIgG...."*... I promise you, I know. + +At any rate, here's the violation: + +https://preview.redd.it/byby06na0nk81.jpg?width=1037&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=175108e496e71c13c34049f0c4c34ecb4669ec40 + +Right off the bat, we have Citadel's signature violation **"IT FAILED TO ESTABLISH AND MAINTAIN REASONABLE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTROLS AND SUPERVISORY PROCEDURES"** ... BLAH BLAH BLAH. + +Long story short, here's why I think this matters: + +When an option order is placed, Citadel has a price control mechanism that would reject orders priced at a "certain percentage" away from the NBBO. This makes sense.. no big deal.. You shouldn't execute on trades that are too far outside of the best bid. However, if that order is cancelled and replaced, you should repeat this process... which clearly didn't happen. + +When an order is placed, it is often broken into several "child orders". This allows trade blocks to execute and complete the order at the best price for the customer. If too many of those child orders are outside of the NBBO, the blocks should stop executing until either the order is cancelled or the NBBO is back at the appropriate price.. If this system doesn't work appropriately, it will complete the order outside of the NBBO.. Hopefully you can see where this would be a major disadvantage to the customer. + +What's interesting here is the language ***"The firms erroneous order controls ... included a price control that would reject limit orders that were priced at a certain percentage away from the NBBO"..*** + +..then.. + +***"However, when an option order was cancelled and replaced, the price control was NOT applied to the replaced option orders."*** + +So... all 14 of these exchanges would receive limit option orders from Citadel before the market opened. If Citadel replaced the original order *after* the orders were sent to those exchanges, ALL of those orders would execute without appropriately reviewing the new parameters set by the replacement order.... + +**That's NUTS!** + +Even more alarming is the lack of documentation that their personnel were supposed to follow in these situations. I know things get hectic for traders and it's hard to keep track of everything. We're all human and sh\*t happens, but SURELY someone at Citadel noticed this occurring before the hammer had to come down, externally. Every past violation seems to highlight Citadel's lack of "give a f\*ck" when it comes to these things. It just leaves a sour taste in the mouth.. + +I'm sure everyone knows about the DOJ investigations going on right now. These issues can have a direct impact on their ability to manipulate prices. Intentional or not, if you're aware of these issues and fail to fix them, you're guilty. **PERIOD.** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +**MEAT N' POTATOES, TIME** + +Recall from [Citadel Has No Clothes](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m4c0p4/citadel_has_no_clothes/) that **Citadel ADVISORS** had roughly $385,000,000,000 (that's billion) in assets under management in 2020... That consisted of roughly **76.7% derivatives and less than 25% of actual, physical assets....** + +I was shocked to learn that initially, but after following their filings through 2021, I realized it was basically their bread n' butter. According to the most recent report on [https://whalewisdom.com/](https://Whalewisdom.com), their AUM as of 12/31/2021 had increased by over $100,000,000,000 (again, billion). + +But that "increase" doesn't really represent true value... In fact, **it's the highest-risk profile** I've ever seen. Here's the market value of their equities & derivatives on 12/31/2020: + +https://preview.redd.it/z0lfg8jr9nk81.jpg?width=1001&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d9f25be61927ea3ac081d45d604df0b052d27c98 + +*AAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNDDDDDDDD* here's the AUM for year-end 2021.... + +https://preview.redd.it/fs2dkn55ank81.jpg?width=996&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=023327ebb2c63479f99dde8e17c0d88f3c7e4be5 + +Market value of physical equities is up 7.88%.... and their derivative values are up almost **37%?!?!** + +37%?!?!?!!?!! IN ONE YEAR?!?!?! **THEIR ENTIRE PORTFOLIO IS NOW 82.59% DERIVATIVES...** + +I've waited an entire year for someone to show me one other firm that has this type of portfolio.... or WHY it would be a smart idea.. + +If you're not sure what this means, I'm saying more than 80% of their portfolio is a STRAIGHT- UP gamble. Over 9% of their portfolio is a bet on Tesla... (they're bullish FYI). + +Hell, almost 7% of their portfolio are SPY PUTS. + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +THIS NOW MAKES TWO YEARS IN A ROW THAT I'M AWARE OF.. NOT ONE, BUT TWO.... + +WANNA KNOW SOMETHING ELSE THAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THE NUMBER TWO? IT'S ALMOST THE SAME NUMBER OF PHYSICAL SHARES THAT CITADEL ***ACTUALLY*** OWNS.. + +Moving on.. + +Citadel Securities upped their short position to $65 billion this year. It's the highest since...... + +2020.... + +which was the highest since...... + +2019... + +which was the highest since.... here, just take a look at this: + +https://preview.redd.it/223tiwo8lbl81.jpg?width=538&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5d39cf70966dabd249d823a72d1dea4f4e756d9 + +Basically, Citadel Securities' holds over 87% of their liabilities as short obligations. This is split between options and equities, which is nothing new for them... + +Interestingly, they haven't had this level of short liability since right before the financial crisis of 2008... If I were to make a guess, I'd say they are betting against..... well.... everything? I wish I had their [whalewisdom.com](https://whalewisdom.com) reports so I could compare how Citadel Securities scales with their hedge fund's prior filings. Would be interesting to see if the shorts are outgrowing their physical assets... + +well that's not a fair statement because anything can grow quicker than their physical asset portfolio. + +But you know what DOESN'T have problems growing? Their **#SHORTS** + +&#x200B; + +**DIAMOND.F\*CKING.HANDS** + +\#GMEtotheMOON + +\#HODL +The engine of a market economy is that my spending creates your job. But I’ve heard a theory that a lot of money is ending up in hoards, just sitting there, never being spent or invested. As an example, tech corporations have a lot of money just sitting in their coffers, used neither for investment nor returned to shareholders as a dividend. The more money ends up in these pools, the less spending creates jobs, and the weaker the labor market gets. + +Two questions. First, what data is there on the existence of such unproductive pools of wealth? Second, is this a reasonable theory of how such pools (presuming they exist) affect the job market? + +Edit: thanks everybody for a lot of great answers! +So I’m very interested in the markets and find trading fascinating but my question is why should I waste my time trading when all academic papers & evidence states that index funds beat a very large percentage of active managers and traders? I want to get into trading but this has been holding me back especially if it is time consuming. +Hey everyone, I created a [website](https://prateekmalhotra.me/dcf-basic/) last weekend to do a quick DCF analysis of companies. All it needs is the ticker symbol. If you don't touch any other parameters, it will fetch the data from Yahoo Finance. So it's literally just one click. + +For people who like to tweak and play around with numbers, I also have a corresponding [python script](https://gist.github.com/prateekmalhotra/431ebfa2d3168f7b7dbe7a86f17e3f2f) with instructions in the github comments. Let me know if you have any feedback. Thanks! + +EDIT: + +1. Everyone's feedback is valued and I will get around to implementing all your requests. To start with, I have updated it so it won't show an error for high growth stocks (example TSLA) but only a warning. +2. You can now choose to add a custom starting cash flow, average over the last 3 years, or just use 2021's FCF. This gives you more control over the calculations. +3. What's coming next: Graphs showing how changing discount rate, growth rate, and cash flow would change the final valuations! +It's one thing to say that you believe crypto is the future, it's another to say it while looking at a consistently bleeding market. Many new investors have bought the ATH and are still holding on through these crazy times. + +When you're new to a market and you see your new investment down massively, it can be very disheartening, many will sell to get out and swear off of crypto entirely. I've already seen this a lot. There is so much FUD and as we can't predict the future, we all feel cautious. + +So I must give credit to those new investors, lets hope we see some more green on the charts soon. +/edit: Hi /r/all. While I have your attention, I want to take 5 seconds of your time and bring some exposure to something that is threatening our existence as the human race. If you aren't interested, please skip down to the main article. I'm talking about finding a way to live sustainably on this planet, regenerative agriculture, where we get our food from, and how we can make sure that our kids and grandkids have something left once we leave. + +Please consider reading up on Permaculture, sustainable living, Forest gardening, Backyard Chickens, etc. + +[Bored for a night? Go watch "Sustainable" on Netflix.](https://sustainablefoodfilm.com/) + +Look into people like [Geoff Lawton](http://www.geofflawtononline.com/), Mark Shepard, Sepp Holzer, these people are going to save us. + +[This is a link to Permaculture Principles which offers a solution to living in a sustainable way on this planet](https://permacultureprinciples.com/) + +Want to make a small change yourself? Grow a tomato plant on your balcony in a pot. Reduce transport of the tomatoes you eat, and make ~$50 per plant in saved money. Want to do something bigger? Plant a fruit tree in your backyard. Maybe two. Maybe a raspberry bush. You are now part of saving the human race. + +If everyone reading this planted a fruit tree, or even some wild flowers, we could save the bees. + +While you are at it, planting a fruit tree has been shown to be one of the best investments on the planet. There's pretty much no investment on the planet that is more financially lucrative (while still being nearly bullet-proof safe) than planting a fruit tree. + +You can get a tree at an end of sale auction for literally 5-10 bucks, and that tree will produce THOUSANDS of dollars of fruit for you in it's lifetime. Go spend $200 bucks at an end of season sale, plant 10-20 trees (if you have room), and that $200 will be worth tens of thousands of dollars of saved money. + +Do it right, [plant it right](https://www.permaculture.co.uk/videos/how-plant-fruit-tree-really-well). Go learn how, or ask me. If you do it right, it's zero work after you have planted and wood-chipped, and all you do is pull dollars off a tree. + +_______________________________________________________ + +Original post starts below. I apologize for the shilling of Permaculture, but I think loss of topsoil will impact us all if we don't reverse it soon. We need soil, we need bees, we need food. We need to stop buying December Bananas in Canada. We need to start supporting local permaculture sustainable farms. We need to do this or we may not make it, and our grandkids stand no chance. +______________________________________________________________________ + +**I also expended the "now what happens" section, to explain how these pullbacks are a good thing, make crypto more stable, and why we keep seeing larger ceilings after every pullback... this stuff is really important for you to make money on this thing, if that's your goal....** + +I've made a similar post in a few spots, and this is something that is absolutely critical for people to understand... what impacts price, and what is going on lately. Price has only a very minor correlation with money invested, and a major correlation with opinion. + +... and Humans are an emotional bunch. + +So what drives price of any commodity, crypto, gold, pizzas, whatever? The money invested in it, right? Kind of, but not really. What if I told you that you could theoretically raise bitcoin from $15k to $20k by spending $1, and lower it from $25k to $1k by spending the same $1? Crazy right? + +**AN EXAMPLE** + +This is going to start out slow, I want to make sure I get everyone on the same page before I pick things up and lift the curtain. Stick with me here.... + +This is an example to help illustrate why prices aren't driven by money invested, but rather consensus and opinion. Lets imagine the following exists (we will use bitcoin as an example, but this is how everything on the planet works) + +Lets say Bitcoin is currently priced at $10k (the last sale). From $11k to $99k, every $1k there is someone with a sell order of 1 full bitcoin. From $9k to $1 dollar, every $1k on the way down there is someone with a buy order of 1 full bitcoin. + +So, right now if you wanted to buy bitcoin you have several options... meet the lowest seller's price of $11k, or, put your own buy order up, above the highest buyer's bid order (overcut them). If you decide to just place an order, the price doesn't change. If you decide the buy the $11k bitcoin, now bitcoins value is $11k, with a new lowest sell offer of $12k, and a highest buy bid of $10k. Someone else comes in an overcuts the buy bid and puts 1 BTC for sale for $11k. No trades are made until someone matches a buy/sell. + +Okay, that's kindergarten stuff, most people here understand that. So how much money drove the price up in this situation? $11k, and BTC price raised 11/10, 1.10, or 10% from the last sale. Now the entire marketcap of BTC raised 10% (last sale multiplied by circulating supply). So it takes $11k to drive a 10% increase, right? Not at all. Lets look at what happens when news is released. + +News comes out that Warren Buffet thinks bitcoin is a scam, a bubble, and he wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole because he only invests in things he understands and he doesn't understand crypto. People panic everywhere, and believe "this guy is smart, I'm overvaluing this thing". + +Suddenly people don't want to buy this scam anymore, and the buy orders for $11k, $10, and $9k are taken down. + +At the same time, the people wanting to sell start to panic and just want out. The guy at $32k (who just had that offer up "just incase it moons") drops down to $11k sell order. The guy at $12k, who was the lowest, now undercuts him to $10k. + +The other buyers see the sellers undercutting and think that if these people want out, why am I buying in. The $8k guy pulls his offer, and so do the $7k, $6k and $5k guys. The highest offer is now $4k. + +The sellers panic further and the $14k guy undercuts the $10k guy and puts up a $9k sell. The $15k, 17k and 11k guys all see this flurry of panic and now a storm undercutting is triggered, to $8k, $7k, and $6k. The $8k order pulls his again and goes down to $5k. + +The price on the buy and sell orders has moved around a ton, but no sales have actually happened yet. Technically, BTC is still "worth" $11k, and the market cap reflects that. All this horseshit has happened, and it only happened in 10 seconds, but the price hasn't moved yet. + +The $27k guy wakes up and checks his phone. He had a $27k offer just incase the price moved also, and he also only has a tiny infinitesimal fraction of a BTC. Well, he decides "he's out" and fills $1 worth of the part of the $4k guys buy offer. + +The latest price information is now updated, and BTC fell from $11k to $4k price per BTC with the movement of a single dollar. + +This is exaggerated example, but this is what moves price. Not money in vs money out. The ONLY THING that moves price is perception. + +**OPINION FLOW AND NOT MONEY FLOW** + +Now the above example only happens if everyone simultaneously believe the same thing... this the asset they are holding is a steaming turd. What happens in reality is there's no black and white, it's shades of gray. It's flow in vs flow out. But again, not flow MONEY, but rather OPINIONS. + +If 66% of the holders of something all of a sudden unanimously decide that their asset is overvalued, then they panic sell. Even if 33% of the people decide they are going to buy up as much as these panic sellers sell, if the panic is strong enough, and they are slitting eachother's throat to sell, then the buyers just happily sit and let them do that, and time their buys in. Very little money has to actually change hands in order for this price to crash, all that matters is the FLOW OF OPINION has to be swift and violent, and in majority. The sellers will leapfrog eachother on the way down, faster than the buyers scoop up their sales, and the net result is a crashed price. + +Note, this happens both ways... fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) as well as overhyped FOMO (Fear of missing out). + +**So now what happens?** + +Time goes by and all holders opinions of their asset hasn't changed. They still think it's worth $11k and they got great deals scooping up what these sellers were selling. The weak hands have left the market and have been replaced with holders. Overall, now a higher percentage of holders believe in the product they are holding and are unwilling to sell for the panic prices of the last week. Panic sellers were also replaced by new money, people who have wanted in for a while and are now in on their perceived ground floor. + +Also, people who bought BTC at $1 ten years ago and have been looking for an exit to cash profits have now been replaced by either long term holders, or by these new people who are thrilled to have finally entered, and they are looking to hold long. + +So what happened on this pullback? The number of people waiting to jump off the ship has decreased. The new ground floor is established, and it's rock fucking solid. + +**This is what TODAY looks like.** (my opinion). + +Let me say that again... + +**TODAY WE ARE MORE STABLE THAN WE WERE YESTERDAY** + +People who have panic sold and never believed in this in the firstplace... people who have wanted out for 10 years... they have been replaced by people who are now getting in on THEIR GROUND FLOOR, and are going to be holding long. The market is suddenly increasingly more stable today than it was yesterday, even though prices are down. + +**This is a good thing.** This is why crypto keeps bouncing back from pullbacks and reaches new higher ceilings and floors each time. Old money who wanted out, and new panic holders, they are gone. They are replaced with adopters, holders, believers in this technology. These people aren't selling anytime soon, because they believe that this thing is going to revolutionize the world. Every crash brings more of these people in, and removes more panic sellers out. + +**Moving forward** + +Now news releases start coming out about how stock ETFs are being created, NASDAQ index funds, bank support, government support. Companies are using this tech, and companies who use blockchain for transportation are putting non-blockchain companies out of business. + +The people on the outside looking-in feel they are missing out. They now start coming in and buying. They start overpricing eachother on their buy orders, and eventually it gets close enough to a sell order that someone decides they are just going to meet the sell price. The sale goes through. + +Sellers (HODLERs) see this action, and they start pulling sell orders off the table almost as fast as they fill. Sure some trades go through, and incoming money is driving the price up as market orders are filled. But what's also happening is people are seeing this flurry of volume, and sellers are pulling sell orders and placing them higher. + +Junk coins and pump and dump scam coins are dying by the millions. In their ashes, good solid technology projects whose coins have fundamental economic reasons for growth, these are rising. Corporate partnerships continue forming. The real world continues to create actual use cases. Companies start storing more and more corporate information on blockchain. Public companies use blockchain to store scientific research (See Canadian Research Council announcements), and blockchain acts as a Library of Alexandria. People can travel out of country without any monetary exchange, using their chosen cryptocurrency to buy the things they need abroad. The world is slowly actually USING this technology. + +Money is coming in, but more importantly, OPINION IS CHANGING. Literally nothing could have happened in terms of fundamentals, partnerships, etc... this can all be driven entirely emotional, so long as it's wide-spread and strong. Infact, the market could THEORETICALLY rebound in this way from $4000/BTC to $1 MILLION PER BITCOIN by the sale of ONE PENNY. + + +**SO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS? and where are we going?** + +A lot of new money has come in from Nov-Jan, and they don't really know what they are investing in. Sure some of them have done great research and are smart investors but most people aren't and isntead they are buying Symbols and Names and trading on speculation. They are treating their favorite coins like a sports team, and will follow them irrationally off a cliff. + +These new people came in and invested in cryptocurrency because their OPINION was heavily influenced in Nov, Dec, Jan, from media. They saw this money making machine called crypto. They were willing to pay huge, ride the wave up, keep buying, etc. They were "ground floor adopters" and were going to get rich. + +They outnumber the old money by A LOT. Their OPINION MATTERS. It matters the most. + +To keep this in perspective, they are also a VAST MINORITY of "new money" that will enter the game in the next decade. This cycle will continue over and over and over. + +Their opinion rose nearly unbounded and price rose accordingly. Market cap rose from 10B to 750B, and it could have been VERY LITTLE actual money that did this. How much did it need to be though? Literally ONE PENNY, theoretically. All that matters in moving price is MOMENTUM OF OPINION. I believe it has been estimated that as low as 6B USD was responsible for the bull rush. + +These people then started hearing "Bubble", "Scam", Fake news about governments banning. They don't understand how technology wins, always. Crypto is beyond government control. If they could have stopped Bitcoin they would have done it already. + +**WHO IS DRIVING ALL THIS?** + +Most investment opportunities go first to "accredited investors". You need to have multimillions in order to get in on the ground floor for most stock IPOs, and we're seeing that start to happen with coin ICOs. Bitcoin was a joke for the first few years, while lunatics picked it up. At this point, it was really too late to get in "early", and who would have wanted to anyways, it was all still a joke. So Wallstreet, banks, governments have generally watched on the sidelines as average Joes who were crazy enough to be early adopters and toss $100 on fake internet money slowly became millionaires. + +Not only that, but the idea of blockchain started to become understood. The power and value in it became understood. Not only as a way to track "monetary value" but for many other applications as well. Platforms were created, business uses brainstormed, products started being made. This thing started taking off, and wasn't a joke anymore. But regardless, big money wasn't in on the ground floor. They have stakeholders opinions to think of, and what do they say to investors when they lose all their money on magic internet points? + +But they have woken up now. This thing has "popped" many times now and keeps recovering. This thing won't die. could they have been wrong all along? If they want in, how do they get in? They are no dummies, they have been controlling the world their whole lives? Look at the media experiment that Trump is doing? He is testing just how we work... you can do literally anything and we remember it for like 30 seconds, until the next news story comes out. We change opinions very easily. We are swayed very easily. We are their puppets. Media controls the world. They know their way in. + +They have ONE WEAPON against cryptocurrency. + +YOUR OPINION OF IT. + +And they know it. + +**Media.** + +That's why FUD is so powerful and needs to be respected. It's why we need to read more than titles on news articles. We need to question what we read, **whether it's good news or bad news**. We need to think about "what are the motives of the person saying this to me". Does the government have a conflict of interest when they state that crypto is gambling? Do they have skin in the game? + +What about wall street? Does WEISS ratings possibly have incentive to come out with poor ratings? Do banks have incentive to lock accounts in order to "protect" customers from "unsafe investments" when their entire business model revolves around holding as much of your money as possible and making money off it? Do you think banks have any super secret hidden interest in preventing you from storing your money elsewhere? I'm not sure, maybe you can critically think about that. + +Just understand that this goes both ways. When crypto is booming and Fox news is showing people how to buy $4 ripple on prime time, you may want to start putting in some stop loss orders. When the suicide hotline is stickied at the top of /r/cryptocurrency and everyone is panic selling, you may want to start picking up some firesale deals. + +So, the question is this... Is crypto undervalued or overvalued at it's price today? Where is the price going long term? **I'm not talking about it's use case**, I'm talking about in the **court of public opinion**, where is THAT going? Because THAT is what is going to drive price in the future. + +Without a crystal ball, this is of course impossible to know. Do your own research and form your own opinion. It could very well be that the technology having a use-case will in and of itself drive opinion, and thus price. But make sure you understand that it's not the technology itself, it's not the value of the business itself, it's not the use case itself that will drive price, it is the publics OPINION of that thing which drives price. They are intertwined, but they are NOT the same thing. + +TLDR: VERY VERY little money has to move around in order to swing prices drastically, up or down. Money in and out doesn't drive price, OPINION does. How do you let the news you read impact your opinion?How are you being played (on both sides, shilling and FUD). + +Something is only worth what people think it's worth. Often that's based on reality, value, business, money, but often it's entirely emotional. + +[Structure your portfolio in a balance, intelligent way, using risk methodology.](https://www.investinblockchain.com/cryptocurrency-investment-risk-management/). Invest money you are willing to lose. Support legitimate technology and teams who are actively driving their product to completion, coding, and marketing. Stop trying to make money overnight in pump and dump scams, or pyramid schemes. + +Every day, take one coin, do a deep dive on it, learn it inside and out. Look into their team and their past. Do that every day for a year, and you just learned 365 coins inside and out. Ask yourself the following key questions: + +Have those members consistently jumped ship on previous projects? Is that where you want to invest in? Is their team capable of executing on their vision? Are they trying to solve world hunger, and their team is a few 16 year olds in a garage? How active is their github? Are they adding chunks of code regularly, or is a ghost town? Are they marketing their product at all? Or is marketing the only thing they are doing? + +What are the economics of their coin itself? Is it required to be used to gain access to their technology? Are there burns? How premined is it, and what portion do the founders hold? + +What about their vision? Are they trying to solve a problem that needs to be solved? What are the economics of that problem and how much money does the solution potentially save clients? + +These are all questions you should be asking when you give your money to someone else. We're a lot more stable than we were - a correction was bound to happen. Too much early money wanted to cash in profits. These people have been replaced by new money who is holding on their own ground floor. The whole industry in general is still in very early stages. Rest assured that anyone reading this is still very much an early adopter. Just make sure you are investing in actual technology, and supporting capable teams, and not buying air. Buy the Googles and Amazons of Crypto, not the pets.com or flooz.com of cryptos. + +Happy investing everyone. + +/EDIT: some have asked to donate some pennies. Just PM me for my info, it is very kind of you, thank you all for your kind words. +$2T printed / bailout, nationwide protests / rioting, stealing / looting causing millions of dollars in damages and a further divide between the US people, 41,000,000 jobless claims, the US has more cases of the virus than most of Europe combined, No national healthcare, Biden or Trump as the current and next leader and yet very little movement in the strength of the dollar.... why? + +Sorry about the formatting... mobile. +My essential stats: + +- 47m +- Wife, 2 kids (both under 10) +- $30mm NW ($2mm Home Equity, $4mm in cash, $24mm in diversified stocks, private equity funds, etc.) +- Current employed and make around $5mm a year. +- Current annual spending: $600K a year on housing, vacations, private schools, etc +- We live in one of the most expensive zip codes in the country on west coast + +I think about retiring often, especially when work is stressful. I work at a very high pressure company. Each year is a struggle and while i have significant tenure at the company, i always feel under the gun to produce or risk being replaced by a younger, more ambitious version of myself. I am new to this community but have been thinking about my own version of FatFIRE for a long time. + +I would appreciate advice on a few topics. + +1) How do I stop worrying that I “won’t have enough money”? I know this sounds ridiculous but it is really hard to make myself believe that I can support myself and my family on what i have in the bank for the long term. I don’t want to reduce my annual spending in retirement and i want to feel like even if the economy tanks and the market pulls back that I have enough to live well forever. I have a mental block on this topic. for some reason though. I always feel like i need “a little more”. How have. others dealt with this feeling? + +2) My job is very stressful, but i could power through for another 5-7 years i think. I think if i did so, i could easily retire with a $50mm NW. Thoughts on whether this is really worth pursuing? I don’t think my lifestyle would change significantly, but i almost feel like i owe it to my family to make this money if i can. It could make a difference for my family for generations to come. + +3) How have others figured out what to do next? I don’t golf, and while i have been very charitable over the years, i am not really passionate about a specific cause that I could throw my time into. I love my family very much, so i could spend more time with them. That being said, i think i need more of a purpose to make my life feel meaningful. Thoughts from anyone on how they figured out what to do with their time? + +4) Does anyone know of any good books for someone in my net worth range to read on these topics? I have a private wealth advisor at one of the big shops but he is not really helpful beyond the nuts and bolts of my portfolio. + +Thanks in advance +Here are how taxes work for an average citizen who decides to day trade in the US. + +All trading income is either taxed as short term capital gains or long term capital gains. A long term capital gain is holding a security for longer than one year. All of the income of a security held longer than one year would be taxed separately than any other income at 20 percent. + +Short term capital gains are where we as day traders fall. In this case all income is taxed together and taxed at the current tax brackets you would fall into based on how you file. If you currently work from home due to covid and make 50k per year and then day trade earning another 20k, your tax return would be filed as if you made 70k for that year plus wash sales. Your taxes would be based on whatever tax bracket that put you in. Bear in mind if you made 50k from a separate job but lost 50k in day trading, you are only allowed to write off 3k per year of that 50k loss. Therefore your tax return would be 50k -3k and you would be taxed at 47k for that year plus wash sales. You would then be able to write off 3k per year for each year thereafter until all 50k has been written off. The only way to write off more than 3k per year is to be a mark to market elected trader with the IRS or in subsequent years make money trading where you can write off the carried loss against positive income. + +Wash sales. ****EDIT****. This Information may have been wrong, I will update when clarified. + +If a trader makes more than 250k in a year in securities, then the trader owes an additional 3.8% in taxes due to Obamacare for every dollar over 250k. This is on top of whatever federal tax bracket you are in. Edit for this. There are multiple tax brackets based on how you file. A single trader the threshold is 200k, married filed separate is 125k, and married filed joint is 250k. +Edit for some clarification + +For some tax advantages for day traders, read this post + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/comments/ldl7za/trading_tax_information_for_the_new_trader/ + +Edit 3/28/2021 when it came to the wash sales rule i was told my understanding of the law was incorrect. I tried to tell people if you make 50,000 in earnings and have 250,000 in wash sales and are not a mark to market trader, you will owe taxes on 300,000 dollars worth of income. Forbes article here appears to confirm my original understanding of the wash sales rule. https://www.forbes.com/sites/shaharziv/2021/03/26/robinhood-trader-may-face-800000-tax-bill/ +I heard many Dengists (supporters of modern China) claim that modern China runs "socialism with Chinese characteristics", a form of market socialism. + +Although most videos I watch describe China is capitalist, this has got me curious about China's current economic system. + +Can someone help me answer? Thanks! +Hi. I am very interested to find out how global finance and economics work. Like, I am interested with how decisions (govt action or banks action) can steer the economy. + +For example, here is a quote from a recent Economist article "Why zero interest rates might lead to currency volatility" + +"It is natural to think that if interest rates are glued to their effective lower bound, exchange rates will be similarly stuck. An axiom of foreign-exchange analysis is that shifts in policy rates, or in expectations of policy rates, drive currencies up and down. Yet a zero-rate world might plausibly imply more currency volatility. There is little scope for interest rates to adjust to economic trouble. So something else must. The exchange rate is the likeliest candidate." + +I do not get it. Can you guys recommend me some books or anything so that I can have a good foundation and be confident enough to come up with my arguments on issues like this. + +Thank you! + +Edit - To add to this, I'd like to know if there are case studies out there . For example what's going to happen if the govt increases/decreases interest rate, bond yield rate, fiscal stimulus, increase/decrease money supply, downgrade the currency. Like what are the different tools and how they affect the economy when tinkered with. + +Edit 2 - Thank you so much for the replies guys. I'll check out each and every comment . I am not a beginner but I'd like to dig deeper. Also, I am an electrical engineer so I find it fascinating that Raghuram Rajan became such a highly distinguished economist even though he had a BS in Electrical Engineering. +Hey everyone! + +Thank you for showing so much support over the past few months. I took some time away, started a new job (not with u/dlauer FYI), and finished up with the documentaries which should be coming out pretty soon. + +For those who are wondering: + +I'm still 100% bullish on the stonk + +I'm still HODLing + +I've never sold- never will. + +DIAMOND.F*CKING.HANDS + +#GMEtoTheMoon 🚀 💎 +Well hot damn... + +Interesting find when it comes to dividend-paying stocks and short sellers. Turns out one of the best ways to punish a short seller is to issue a dividend through cash or stonk.... + +Why you may ask? + +Because the short seller is now responsible to pay the dividend to the person they borrowed the share from.... Not only does this apply to cash dividends, but stock dividends as well. When a short seller borrows the stock from a lender, the lender still owns that share. So when a company starts declaring a dividend, guess who's on the hook ...yup..... + +The short seller is already making payments based on the borrow rate for the security. Now they've got to find even more cash to make payments to the share lender in lieu of the dividend.... f\*cking ouch. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n1y76mdaitq81.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bd1db4ab0eb93f4a727731fb6e70dc71b914b3f + +The news of this event is super bullish for long term investors because it helps form a tighter relationship to the company. However, it's really effective in encouraging short sellers to close their positions when they are already being smashed by rising prices. + +From my understanding, these rules apply to both cash and stock dividends. While paying the borrow fee to hold the short position, the short seller will also have to pay the cash dividend, or make payments in lieu of the stock dividend. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/finance.zacks.com\/avoid-short-sale-dividend-payment-8493.html](https://preview.redd.it/9k9xswpzitq81.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=3445e750baac347137b99438789d591f324cfcd8) + +&#x200B; + +So not only does this news generate hype for long term investors, Papa Cohen & friends also dropped a ticking time bomb on the short sellers' doorstep. + +https://preview.redd.it/ycz3hqfljtq81.png?width=657&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc29cb63b28c594003568b4cbd9a47ff2b055952 + +Who is eligible for the stock dividend? Basically anyone that buys stock before the declaration of the ex-dividend date. This is one of the main reasons why the stock price rises before the dividend is declared. If you're an existing shareholder, or purchase new shares before that date, you're in the money. + +However, this also butt f\*cks any short seller who shorted the stonks before that date. A stonk dividend is one of the best ways a company can force short sellers to.... + +https://preview.redd.it/mivj7s7nktq81.png?width=688&format=png&auto=webp&s=37c4d19236660a281a43704798d10c217f63f887 + +Close their positions.. + +Wanna know how stock splits and stock dividends are different? Splits don't affect short sellers- dividends do. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4pmrrdk5ltq81.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ab9b38662ad13dda90ad883961461b000905d39 + +Yes, Ryan.... Yes they are. + +&#x200B; + +DIAMOND.F\*CKING.HANDS + +\#GMEtotheMOON +I am doing pretty well all things considered. 24, 60k invested, 70%+ savings rate. Thanks to a new job with salary increase, I have already reached my savings goal for the year. But my friend is really struggling right now. He has lost his job a la Covid. He needs money for school fees and he might have to go back home to another country if he doesn’t find the money in 2 weeks. No one is giving loans to international students. + +I have this money and he has no clue since I live so cheap. I could give it to him. It is only a couple of months of savings to me. If he doesn’t pay it back, I don’t know if I will resent him but it won’t hurt me practically. Right now, I could give him the money, no skin off my back, never see it again and I think it would be fine even friendshipwise. I would end the year with 5k less investments. + +But it would be stupid wouldn’t it? It is so much money. Maybe another year of work before retiring? I can’t believe I am even considering this. I am usually so selfish/super practical. + +EDIT: I am not planning to sell my investments. Just give some money instead of investing over the next couple of months. +Can you feel it? Even despite BSC’s woes today slowing down transactions and demanding that we increase our gas manually like complete plebs, Saturna has continued to press towards shedding a digit which should be coming anytime now. + +While ETH is beginning to work on flipping BTC, there is a flippening happening in the memecoin market as well with Saturna well on its way to dethroning the recent talk of the town in Bonfire. Consider that DOGE falling led to SHIB’s gain, which in turn broke downwards leading to Bonfire’s rise, and now Bonfire is breaking downwards spilling these gains out even further. + +That’s right, Bonfire’s ($550M to $300M) fall is currently Saturna’s ($80M) gain, and while both are simply establishing the floor for their future run into the B’s in market cap, as we’ve seen from even previously dead memecoins like PIG, it’s entirely possible with all the upcoming news that Saturna blasts right past that market cap. + +With SHIB as the 14th largest cryptocurrency in the world, its memecoin SZN and Saturna has the marketing, development and partnerships to launch right into the mix. Having just landed a pair of partners who are heavy influencers in cryptocurrency, collected talented artists ready to design and pump out Saturna NFT’s merch, and unveiled their whitepaper, Saturna looks to be here to stay. + +Being the fastest growing token on BSC, having reached a $90M market cap within four days, Saturna is already teasing a soon-to-be finished NFT marketplace. This should only create more value and hype as Saturna launches not one, but two CEX listings. + +Which you’ll be able to hear about and more with an AMA coming in the next week. This is when you’re going to hear exactly how the devs created this monster and why it's going to keep taking down the next barrier and the next barrier all the way past nine digit figures. + +That’s why you’re seeing influencers coming out all over the space to tell you about their new favorite coin Saturna. This is why you’re seeing people dropping their stacks and going right to Saturna. + +I am telling you this is going to be your last chance to get on before the whole game flips right in front of your eyes. It genuinely is up to you if you’re willing to hear it or not in order to really maximize your gains in this raging market. + +Website: saturna.co/ + +PancakeSwap: exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44 + +Telegram: t.me/saturna_TG + +https://www.reddit.com/r/SaturnaToken/ +I'm not terribly versed on this stuff, I'm aware my question might be naïve. $1.5 trillion dollars seems an absolutely astronomical sum - I've seen it pointed out that it's as much as the total amount of student loan debt in the US. My question is - if this money doesn't represent taxes paid or goods exchanged or whatever, what does it even represent? Where does it come from? Who gets to "keep" this money and spend it going forward? Is the fed just essentially devaluing everyone's existing dollars in order to keep the bond market going? + +Tangential question to help me understand this: Would it be possible for the Fed to inject $1.5T into, say, infrastructure? +&#x200B; + +[https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-falls-10-33747-ether-down-14-2021-05-23/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-falls-10-33747-ether-down-14-2021-05-23/) + +&#x200B; + +> Bitcoin fell 13% on Sunday after the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency suffered another sell-off that left it down nearly 50% from the year's high. +> +>Bitcoin fell to $32,601 at 1800 GMT (2 p.m. ET), losing $4,899.54 from its previous close. It hit a high for the year of $64,895.22 on April 14. +> +> Ether , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 17% to $1,905 on Sunday, losing $391.31 from its previous close. +Hi all, + +All the other investing/stock subs have gone to shit and I'm looking for some advice please - not get downvoted because it's nothing to do with meme stocks, so, sorry if this is in the wrong place. + +Been in crypto a while and gradually started looking into the stock market a month or so ago, got lucky in the timing with gme and want to use the capital in sound investments. + +Before I jump in I'd like to research companies etc. Is there any sites that you can recommend? I googled obviously but are some sites more reputable than others? + +Thanks + +Edit: Appreciate your help all. Will take a look at these websites and pointers over the coming days. +Good morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole, + +Do you smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n6el37moyvu61.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=86407c5dcd469250d43e53114db32b0f58408291 + +# Ok who pushed the entire market down a cliff? Bobby was it you? + +so yesterday the entire market seem to tank around midday, as far as the news went the official reason is because the USA president Biden has upped the federal gains tax to about 43% + +Now would this logically speaking have an effect on the market? yes of course. + +Could it be that because SEC rule 15c3-3 went into effect? yes totally. + +it could be a combination of both of these things which can tank an entire market, namely the announcement being Why, and the Sec rule the how. + +as the new Sec rule means that they need more collateral for their positions, they may have needed to sell off big chunks in order to meet that requirement. + + + +What was also weird yesterday is that suddenly a lot of crypto got pumped into the high heavens, this is a theory we have seen since early February that they would pump crypto to make lots off gains there, or use it as a safe haven for their money in case of the company going bust. + +At this point it's too early to tell why, but it's good to keep an eye on it. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pvglqrn18wu61.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5ee64d5569ab01653d348b1c4c06f2949c02c10 + +One thing that has caught my eye as well is the sudden "surge" of interest in user "ratioblessings", I've often told them over at r/gme that they are trying to give off the air of being an insider but a few things to keep in mind. + +A) if they are one they stand to gain millions by whistleblowing + +B) they would give out answers, not do an interactive puzzle hunt + +C) how to keep people busy with "busywork" and base everything off of conjecture and special "emoji's" because those emoji's mean something. + +&#x200B; + +So ffs please chill guys, I know you guys want an insider to come help us, but the chances of us actually seeing an actual insider here are slim to none. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/1httqb9f1wu61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e3d7e7eb658f139055f2f6f523b28558f2a58cf + +# YOU GET A PROXY, AND YOU GET A PROXY EVERYONE GETS A PROXY + +&#x200B; + +Ok so yesterday ya boi GME released their proxy statements and oof let's go through them for a bit as there is a lot to unpack. + +Form 14A: + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18846/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18846/html) + +Supplemental proxy material (incl how to vote): + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18841/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18841/html) + +&#x200B; + +Ok first of all lets take a look at the big one (and one of the questions I've seen the most here), it's now set in stone that the annual shareholders meeting is on 6/9 + +it said that you need to be a shareholder by the 15th of April. + +Does this mean the shares needed to be recalled by the 15th of April? No. + +This means that you need to have bought your shares before the 15th to be able to vote, the shares can be recalled until 10 days before the meeting, meaning at the latest we'll see the institutions recall their shares up to 29th of May (t+2). + +So putting this next to the Iborrowdesk site's info on the cost % of last year and knowing this it's fair to make the conclusion that they have not yet started the recall, but will start doing so in the next few weeks if they want to do so, and I believe they do. + +# Total float + +We also learned from them directly that the available float is only about 26.7 million. + +# Institutional ownership + +What we also learned is the total of institutional ownership which is up to date (at least I believe so) and they own ‭33.333.438‬ (‭58,5‬%) + +This however does not include the amount of shares held by institutions bellow the 5% reporting threshold. + +# Director ownership (insider owners) + +We learned the total shares on the inside is 11,674,085 (16.5%) + +This means that 75% of the total shares are locked up or ‭45.008.523‬ shares in total. + +Meaning that 26.7 is the float (give or take). + +(fun fact DFV owns roughly over 1.25% of that publicly available float) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[Ever leveled a character to max stats? Rc did](https://preview.redd.it/53o6pu416wu61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=1412855090bf823d2fb5ac621abc68890402606a) + +Now they brought in an external party to overview who would be best placed where, and who would be the best at certain positions. + +What did caught my eye was page 47 and page 48. + + Page 47 + Actual and Expected Executive Separations + In the case of Messrs. Homeister and Sherman, + the table below presents an updated estimate of their expected severance + rights, with stock values based on the closing price of our common stock + on April 15, 2021 ($156.44). This is supplemental information and + is provided to give more current estimates of these executives’ severance + rights in light of their impending departures based on updated stock + prices, updated share amounts and, + in the case of Mr. Sherman, revised severance terms. + +&#x200B; + + + Page 48. + The amount shown in the table represents the value of 812,703 shares of + time-vested restricted stock that are expected to vest on an accelerated + basis in connection with Mr. Sherman’s departure, based on the closing + price of our common stock on April 15, 2021 ($156.44). + This does not include 308,477 shares of time-vested restricted stock + that are expected to vest in the ordinary course on June 9, 2021, + prior to the presently expected date of Mr. Sherman’s departure. + +That last sentence, "THE EXPECTED DATE OF MR. SHERMAN'S DEPARTURE". aka the board still wants him gone. ofcourse mr Sherman brings with him years of experience with brick and mortar stores but I believe he may still be on the way out and this is his hail mary, I know that if I had a vote I would not keep someone who failed for years in a ceo position. + +&#x200B; + +I'm sure there is way more to unpack in these documents but this is what I was able to find so far. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wa7l2nfr8wu61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=db8cb67d12f8deb960dbd007098b7f73299825de + +Unfortunately I have to end on some bad news, I've been doing these posts for months now, day in day out, often resulting in workdays of 10 to 15 hours a day. and at this point it has began taking its toll on me. + +I'm just tired guys, I'm so fucking tired. + +Checking everything, making dailies, moderating everything has asked a serious amount of me, I've started neglecting a lot of parts of my life and the most important people to me. And now a time has come where I have to take care of my own own personal mental and physical health. + +So where to from here? + +I will be taking a break, I'm not sure for how long, this could be a few days, a week or maybe longer. + +I will still be on the moderator team but I will be in a more "background" role advising and helping the team whenever and wherever I can, and I'm thankful that the entire mod team has my back in this and being super supportive. + +&#x200B; + +Will the dailies be over? Nope! + +I had a good talk with the team and two mods will be taking over for me. + +Our very own u/Bye_Triangle as Brick Tamland, and u/pinkcatsonacid as our Veronica Corningstone. they will be filing in for me as I rest up. how they do so is fully up to them. + +&#x200B; + +If I can leave you with some advice for when I'm wrong it would be this: + +Avoid tin foil, even if it looks tempting. + +Think critically about everything, this includes your own opinion, be open to the idea of being wrong with something, this leaves room to learn and change what you believe. + +Always question everything, always. + +Don't kneejerk react, if you see something take a step back, reflect on it and then come back, rule your emotions before they rule you. and decisions made on emotions are often hard to come back from. + +And plan your exit strategy + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fd27nz32awu61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=447bb50cb3c76dcca5c7978b0614b073ffd3f028 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/63w1ngmyawu61.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9a5f529c08461f596b1ecc90bf9a83a56d500fb + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/npxi11n2bwu61.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cd12a73ad693c29f8f94cb3ad2ceadfa3b2b3ba + + + +Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day I will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/](https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/) + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1](https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1) + +[https://twitter.com/warden\_elite](https://twitter.com/warden_elite) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +And I'll be posting updates as they happen here: + +&#x200B; + +This was Ren Burgundy, signing off... well for now. + +I love you guys and love this community and I'll hopefully be back soon with more energy and a more relaxed state, in the meantime take care of eachother ok? be excellent to everyone. + +See you soon <3 +I've started dividend investing in September of 2020, at the age of 15. 5 Months later and I reached my first investing goal of reaching $1000 in portfolio value, generating $40 annually. Now, this may not seem like a lot but as a high school student who doesn't have a job and saving allowances from my parents, it's a start. The purpose of this post is to tell the people who may not have a lot of money to invest like me to not give up, I know that it may seem pointless to invest such a small sum of money but with time it will grow and just let time do the work for you. I hope this post inspires at least a single person to start investing, even if it is a small amount of money. Remember, the hardest part is getting started. + [Redditors are pledging to avoid Robinhood's IPO, even as the company goes out of its way to lure day-trader interest | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-ipo-reddit-pledge-to-avoid-retail-investors-wallstreetbets-2021-7) + +[Natasha Dailey](https://markets.businessinsider.com/author/natasha-dailey) + +Jul. 3, 2021, 08:55 AM + +* **Reddit investors are shunning the idea of investing in Robinhood's upcoming IPO.** +* **Robinhood filed for an IPO Thursday and pledged to reserve up to 35% of shares for retail traders.** +* **"Just forget Robinhood altogether. Let them go down in lawsuits and loss of customer base."** + +Robinhood wants the retail crowd to buy into [**its initial public offering**](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-ipo-s-1-filing-prospectus-free-stock-trading-valutation-2021-5-1030572865?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest), but some investors on Reddit are pledging to avoid the IPO. + +The trading app, which launched in 2013 with the mission to "democratize finance for all," [**publicly filed**](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001783879/000162828021013318/robinhoods-1.htm) for an IPO Thursday. The company said it planned to make 20%-35% of its [**shares available to retail investors**](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-is-reportedly-setting-aside-35-of-its-ipo-shares-for-retail-investors-1030572400?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest) through the IPO Access function in its app. Luring retail investors could cause price volatility and short selling, Robinhood said, potentially [**setting it up for a meme-stock play**](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-ipo-warns-meme-stock-status-day-trader-reddit-wallstreetbets-2021-7?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest). + +Despite the company making shares available to the retail crowd, some Redditors shunned the idea of investing in the stock, and others warned against shorting it. + +"Why would anyone frequenting this sub even be thinking about the IPO, let alone wanting to throw away money shorting it," said [**one Reddit post**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc7q0k/whats_up_with_the_dont_short_robinhood_posts_just/) with more than 4,000 votes on r/Superstonk. "Just forget Robinhood altogether. Let them go down in lawsuits and loss of customer base." + +In its filing, Robinhood warned of more than [**50 lawsuits it's facing**](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-ipo-filing-lawsuits-restrictions-meme-stock-trading-frenzy-gamestop-2021-7?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest) from when the app halted buying of GameStop shares amid the epic rally in January. Another Redditor, citing the filing, noted the company said it cannot assure similar events won't happen in the future. + +"If this last statement is not a sign to get out of Robbing the Hood, I don't know what would," [**read the post**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obsyo1/feds_seize_robinhood_ceos_phone_in_gamestop/), which received 36,000 votes on r/Superstonk. In response, another person with 8,000 comment karma said, "Who would buy their IPO with so many lawsuits looming?" + +"We apes buy stock we like. And we do not like that stock," said another. The Redditors did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. + +In the r/amcstock investing thread, several warned against shorting the stock, saying, "[**it's a trap**](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/oc1ull/dont_short_robinhood_ipo_its_a_trap/)." + +"When Citadel sees you shorting them, they will buy and hold and bleed us dry," [**read one post with 3,000 votes**](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/oc5ywx/if_you_short_robinhood_ipo_you_will_kill_our/). "We will be giving them money to cover their shorts with. Don't play their game." + +Because Robinhood is a commission-free trading app, much of its revenue comes from [**payment for order flow**](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-payment-for-order-flow-q1-impact-reddit-day-traders-2021-5?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest), which is the compensation brokerages like Robinhood earn by having third-party firms execute customer orders. In its S-1 filing, the company said four market makers accounted for 59% of the revenue as of the end of March, with Citadel alone making up 27%. + +"Best thing you can do is ignore them, and move your account," one Redditor said of the IPO. + +Robinhood did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment for the story. +The first to be margin called (and eventually liquidated to cover their shorts when they fail to meet margin requirements) are the hedge funds... + +**They’re the small fish.** This might cause the price to go into the thousands. **The media will put them on blast hoping we believe that once all the hedge funds are margin called that it’s over**... but this is where it just begins... + +**Next will be the market makers and prime brokers** who’ve been “operational shorting” to “provide liquidity to the market.” As Wes Christian has explained, these are the big fish, the real mother fuckers. This is Citadell, Bank of America, JP Morgan, etc. They’re given privileges to short ETFs, fail to deliver, hide shorts/ fails with options, and to skim profits off retail by front running orders, and used these privileges to collude with hedge funds to manipulate prices by diluting the shares in circulation. + +This is where we could see the price go into the hundreds of thousands.... + +But it still ain’t over... + +**Next in line to cover would be the Clearing Houses (collectively the DTCC).** +They’ve been allowing all this to occur because they profit off all that sweet liquidity. + +**This is what they’ve been wanting to avoid and why the FUD/ bots/ shills leading up to this point will seem like a light seasoning compared to the avalanche we’ll see the closer we get to this point.** + +When the DTCC has to start shelling out, that’s when the price could go into the millions/ tens of millions. + +**And then the final boss would be the Fed.** And don’t think for a minute their hands are clean of the blood of the innocent that has been shed by this predatory naked short scheme. + +Expect fuckery at every step of the way, and don’t expect all margin calls to happen in one seamless stream; their goal is to never cover. They will try to drag this thing out and shake as many paper hands as possible. + +Edit: u/Upper_Piano1809 made a [great point ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nv3r0i/the_squeeze_only_starts_when_the_hedge_funds_are/h13x6h9/?utm_source=share&amp;amp;amp;utm_medium=ios_app&amp;amp;amp;utm_name=iossmf&amp;amp;amp;context=3) that everyone, especially new apes need to know: + +Citadell is not just a hedgefund. It is conglomerate with multiple beaches. They’re also a self-clearing market maker. + +“ I can already see it. ‘Shitadel has covered it’s short positions the redditors have won the game had ended’ FUD article and potential fake flash crash to scare off the paper hands and gullible baby apes if there are still any though I highly doubt it after these six tough months of Moon Camp. they’re going to want to deploy this when **Shitadel HEDGE FUND (just one ‘arm’ of the conglomerate Shitadel is)** covers. When in reality that’s nothing, it’s **Shitadel SECURITIES A.K.A the BIGGEST MARKET MAKER in the world who’s doing the synthetic counterfeit predatory shorting** and that’s the real Piñata we apes are here for. But it doesn’t end there...” + + +^(I posted this as a comment and was encouraged to make it a post for visibility.) + +^(Edit: distinguished margin call from liquidation) +Hey everyone! + +Thank you for showing so much support over the past few months. I took some time away, started a new job (not with u/dlauer FYI), and finished up with the documentaries which should be coming out pretty soon. + +For those who are wondering: + +I'm still 100% bullish on the stonk + +I'm still HODLing + +I've never sold- never will. + +DIAMOND.F*CKING.HANDS + +#GMEtoTheMoon 🚀 💎 +Is all that money lost? Our SOE was lifted two days ago and I'm going back into work today. + +I work at a small restaurant, obviously there isn't a lot they can do about it. I don't know if there's any kind of application I can put in for financial assistance or what? + +I'm 22, not in school, very low income. Rent is due on Saturday and I'm definitely going to be short. Surely half of this city must be in the same boat as me right now? + +I've never dealt with anything like this before. All advice is welcomed! + +**EDIT:** I’m at work here now. I’m so grateful for all these responses and I’m excited to get home and try and reply to everyone! Thanks for all the advice and sympathies guys. I will be replying ASAP. + +&#x200B; + +\*\*EDIT 2:\*\* Wow, I really want to be able to reply to everyone, but I think it's going to take me some time! I can't say how grateful I am for all this advice. + +To the people telling me to start an emergency fund, THANK YOU. I don't even care if you sounded a bit scolding, my parents don't live out here so I kind of needed some tough internet love. I have started one immediately, I'm already stashing any extra tips and whatnot I can into it. + +I don't have a personal landlord, we go through a rental company so I've put in a request to talk to someone. They have a lot of requests already (their words, not mine) so right now I'm just waiting to be emailing an actual person and not a robot. + + +I've heard some good things from other people, saying that they're being lenient with lates fees and whatnot so I'm hoping this is all going to work out! I'm going to ask to do a payment plan, I think that will be my best option. + +Again, I can't thank you enough for the advice. I could've never found half these links without y'all. I'm still slowly reading through all of this and replying. :) + +Feel free to shoot me a message if you want to ask about the storm or anything, I'll feel bad if I missed your comment. +My brother and I watched an elderly wealthy Aunt become very sick a week before she died. She told us on her deathbed that we would get fifty percent of her assets. (The other 50% went to charity.) While we were sorry to see her suffer and would miss her, we were philosophical because she was 96 years old. + +She died shortly after our visit and we both inherited well over two million dollars. After the estate was settled we got a check that would change our lives. My brother and I were in our mid-50s at the time. + +Both of us decided to retire from our unsuccessful careers. Combined with our existing retirement savings, we now had enough money to have a higher standard of living than we ever had while working full time. (4% annual withdrawal from a balanced portfolio.) + +After we stopped working, many of our friends, neighbors, and relatives asked how we would survive financially without a job. Both of us decided to be honest with people and tell them we had inherited a significant amount of money. + +Though, instead of being gracious about it, many of the people got angry. They acted like we were opportunists to gain lots of money from a relative who was not even in our immediate family. (We were the only living relatives of our Aunt.) + +After they got angry with us for telling them we inherited money, some of them asked for a loan or even a gift. + +What a disaster. If you inherited money from a relative and quit your job, what would you tell friends and family if they asked you how you are going to pay your bills? If a close friend told you they have inherited a large amount of money would you think it was tacky to tell you that? +Assuming someone who knows very little on economics, what’s the best route for them to learn? + +Is there a sort of general economics topic/book that would be best to give a foundation, then move on to micro/macro, then move to more of those “opinion” style books? + +Or is that not really a realistic path? Is there no general economic books and it’s only macro/micro, “opinion”? + +Really appreciate some advice on going from basics to more detailed topics. +Just reading about all the financial trouble families are now facing in regards to buying overpriced Canadian real estate and facing rate hikes that they're finding hard to support is pretty scary. + +This trouble will extend into the larger economy, as we know that real estate and related services accounts for a large percentage of the Canadian economy. + +And now this article about trouble at the big banks floating on a sea of debt: https://seek ing alpha.com/article/4522933-td-bank-and-royal-bank-of-canada-canadas-about-to-implode + +(Remove the two spaces in the link to read.) + +The article is mostly about Canadian bank stocks, but it also believes that the Canadian economy could be in for a housing crash that sends the whole house of cards tumbling. + +What do you guys think or feel about this? +When I was younger I frequented the Nat Geo-endorsed version of Club Penguin, a child's social playground, Animal Jam. One factor that made this alternative more appealing than other games was the trading feature, which allowed players to swap clothing and decor items with each other. Some items were more exclusive than others, creating a "rarity system" in the community; there was a lot of appeal to "being rare" and showing off how exclusive you were if you could trade well. Nearly 10 years later the economy in this game is so f****d that I'm dying to know what somebody who studies economic law would think. + +Spiked collars are one of the most demanded and one of the most common items of relevance in the system. They are often considered a "currency" because they are thought of as a bridge between lower value and higher value items. Spiked collars (spikes) originated in July 2011 as a premium gift for paying players in that month, and at that point had an earned high status as they were difficult to come by. Anybody who owned and wore a spike clearly knew what they were doing—the item was iconic and behind a lot of the envy some players felt for others. + +Fast forward to 2014 and everything is turned upside down when an item-generating mini-game is introduced (referred to as TFD). TFD was time consuming, but grinding for hours at a time would promise to generate, among multitudes of worthless items, at least a few items that were considered rare and would boost status. Spikes were one of the items that could be generated, causing them to be stripped of their unattainable status—however, demand did not decrease. They were very popular and still considered a sign of status and target of envy. Initially, I believe the general worth of the spike went down during this period, but they were still considered exclusive and met a very heavy demand. + +In 2020, the number of spikes in the game is always increasing faster than they can possibly leave the cycle via TFD. Unless they are just beginning, I would estimate that 80% of people who spend time trading have one or many spikes. They are still considered to have a value almost identical to their value from six years ago despite the obvious increase in presence. They are so common in the game that their continued air of exclusivity seems insane. Many items that are objectively more rare in the game than spikes must be traded in multitudes for a single spiked collar. People wear the extremely common item on their avatars as a symbol of status. The supply of spikes is ever-increasing, but the demand will not go down. + +Below is an opinion piece by a player who was convinced that spikes were bound to make a quick plunge into worthlessness at any second. This also might help explain the economy more for anybody interested. It was written in 2016, but nothing has changed yet. What is going on here?? I am so baffled by this niche flash-player game. [2016 piece](https://www.deviantart.com/ajmemes/journal/Animal-Jam-s-Rare-Spike-Problem-652062512) +I've talked to a lot of people who are right wing who still support him because they say he helped the economy. Is this actually true? I heard that the federal reserve printed a lot more money during his presidency, devaluing the dollar. + +Side question: why is inflation so high under biden? +I guess we've all heard of the ProPublica report that came out detailing how billionaires instead of liquifying their assets and paying taxes on them rather just lend money from banks using their capital as collateral. + +But at some point, they need to pay that payback both the principal and the interest. And you need income to do that right? + +So how do they then pay it back without having to sell their stocks and using that money to pay it back? I get that there is a way, if not, it kinda defeats the point of doing it in the first place. + +I'm kind of an idiot, so go easy on me! + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Hope to hear back. +i’ve seen a bunch of different figures for how much the money supply rose in 2020, but surely if there was a 35% increase in the money supply there’d be an increase of 35% inflation? is that not what the fisher equation shows? +what is the difference between futures and options? I can't understand the difference + +in both you have a contract to sell at X price at X date... so where is the difference? +As if ICO-mania wasn't crazy enough, today Vinny Lingham's Civic ICO is being released. For those not familiar with Vinny his claim to fame is being on the tv show Shark Tank. He also predicted a couple of Bitcoin's price increases last year so a lot of people follow him on Twitter. + +Why should you avoid this ICO? I've been following Vinny for over a year and he is a hardcore Bitcoin maximalist. He does not believe in or understand ETH. He is only doing this ICO on Ethereum because Rootstock is not ready yet. He believes Ethereum is pointless once Rootstock is out for Bitcoin. + +He is buddy buddy with Barry Silbert (ETC shill), WhalePanda, and other Bitcoin maximalists. + +[](https://twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/874734381360959491) + +[](https://twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/877303524178014209) + +Re-tweets + +[](https://twitter.com/bitcom21/status/875788691301556224) + +[](https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/877197868658040834) + +[](https://twitter.com/Cointelegraph/status/874984989628215297) + +Seriously, spend 10 minutes on his twitter and see for yourself. + +The fact that this man is about to make millions off of something he doesn't even believe in is sickening. There will be dozens of ICOs still to come that you can make money flipping. Don't give this man any of yours. +P/E is 5 + +ROE **31.3** % + +Market Cap 257cr + +Runs a leading news website which consistently ranks in the top 50 website in India [https://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries/IN](https://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries/IN) + +Has a leading news app NDTV in India which is most downloaded on Android & AppleStore in this space. + +Has a huge following on Twitter & Youtube + +Not to mention their 24/7 news channels in Hindi & English + +Yes, company has underperformed in the past 10 years and is perceived to be anti-government but this technology push is showing results and company has turned profitable in the last year. + +If you compare these assets of NDTV with other internet companies like TV18, Naukri or Indiamart, you will find it to be deeply under-owned and undervalued. + +Edit: + +Just a quick update; Company declared strong results for December quarter and stock has moved up post the event. + +Press release attached [https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/09ec3cca-222e-49da-9ac6-45ed295ba5fc.pdf](https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/09ec3cca-222e-49da-9ac6-45ed295ba5fc.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +Edit #2 +Another good quarter from NDTV...stock has doubled in 3 months. +* The RBI order will not impact existing customers of Mastercard +* The action has been against the payment system operator for violating RBI's norms on the storage of payment systems data + +Suddenly RBI is in full force. + +[source](https://www.livemint.com/industry/banking/rbi-restricts-mastercard-from-onboarding-new-customers-in-india-from-22-july-11626265610221.html) +Congratulations on your first good ol' fashioned wsb rug pull. The future autists among you will experience many of them and keep a special memory of each. + +Many of you won't be accustomed to this and are wondering "what am I supposed to do until trading opens tomorrow"? + +You post your loss porn is what. We've all been there. It's a badge of honor. + +Remember the post a few days back about a dog getting surgery with GME gains? Today is when you post about how GME killed your dog. + +Shit, after the Luckin Coffee debacle, it was like a canine apocalypse in here. + +Anyways, just wanted to officially welcome our newly minted members. Not subscribers, members. +I can't stress this enough. Just because this guy is a computer programmer and has made lots of money in the past does not make him an expert at all. He's been doing TV interviews saying that bitcoin will go past half a million while in the same interview saying he makes money from his mining company. It's in his best interest to say outrageous shit that makes the news waves like "eating his own dick" if he's wrong. He's making money regardless of what Bitcoin is. This guy has mastered playing the media like a puppet for attention. And he's a piece of shit. Watch showtimes documentary on him to get you a real idea of who he is. tl;dr John McAfee wants to profit from claims that have no proof for his own greed. Do your own research. There are so many great YouTube channels that offer personal advice but suggest doing everything at your own free will. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCTKyJALgd09WxZBuWVbZzXQ +Crypto Investor. +https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxODjeUwZHk3p-7TU-IsDOA +Boxmining +The title is a bit harsh, but hear me out. I got really into personal finance and FIRE over the past say 2 years, mostly by reading Reddit and Investopedia. After reading so much about personal finance and investing online, I figured it was time to read some of the classic personal finance books. I started with Rich Dad Poor Dad because I hear it tossed around so much. + +Now, I will start off with the positives about the book. I think from a mindset perspective, it's really actually quite good. Things that I think people should take more seriously are paying yourself first, knowing how to buy assets, having your money make money, optimizing assets, etc. All of this is great advice and certainly not enough people heed it. + +My main frustrations from the book came from the specific examples that Robert Kiyosaki chose to give. Just to name some off the top of my head, here are a few things that he suggests over the course of the book: + +* Dropping money in penny stocks and IPOs to make a killing (he cites one example of making an absurd amount of money off one... seems like selective hindsight to me) +* Picking up foreclosed houses to flip. Sure I bet you can make money this way, but certainly not great advice for the regular person +* Everyone should join a multi-level marketing company to learn how to sell. This one made me laugh... that is awful advice +* Investing in 16% tax liens. This one he even brings up an example of his friend calling him dumb and he is so smug about it when defending himself. + +Those four were particularly bad, but I remember several others that made me scratch my head. I mean, the man acts like investing in a mutual fund is for someone who wants to live on rice and beans the rest of their life (to be fair though, I know low-cost index funds weren't as widely available / know about back when the book was written). + +To add to the bad advice, it also annoyed me from a stylistic perspective that he acts like poor people are all as dumb as rocks and his cunning genius is why he's rich. I can only imagine the people who read his book and went out and joined an MLM and put all their money into tax liens and wonder why they never got rich. + +In my opinion, this book should not be read by anyone who is planning on pursuing FIRE, there are so many better options. +Looking for any intelligent answers or econ literature on the below. Thanks! + +It's standard practice for employers to reject job candidates without providing any reasons. The exception is when candidates reach final rounds, though even then feedback is often not given. + +This deprives job candidates of information that could help them apply to more appropriate jobs and improve their job applications. Say that a job candidate for Company A is rejected because she is wildly unqualified. She may not realize this, but since Company A doesn't explain why it rejected her, she may nevertheless continue to apply to similar jobs or similar employers for which she is poorly qualified. The result is that she is spending not only her own time and resources inefficiently but also that of other employers, who are now saddled with additional job applications in which they're bound to be uninterested. + +Could a law that required employers to select one or more reasons from a list of 10 possible reasons for rejecting a candidate, and then provide those reason(s) to the candidate, remedy this situation? + +In theory, by decreasing the information asymmetry between job candidate and employer such a law would lead to a) fewer job applications (due to reduced applications for poorly qualified jobs); and b) better job applications (due to increased tailoring of application materials). + +Thanks. +In a New York Times interview today, Apple CEO Tim Cook said he had been invested in crypto for “a while” and that he considered it a reasonable investment as part of a well-balanced portfolio. + +I know this sub is normally a shelter from the rest of Reddit, who are a bit too obsessed with crypto at the moment, but I think one of the world’s richest men, who came from a traditional business career to work his way up the corporate ranks, saying crypto is a part of his portfolio is FatFire-relevant and worth discussing in here. + +Do you have any thoughts on what Cook said? If you’re a 100% safe index fund and bonds investor would you be inclined to revisit your risk tolerance (for even a small allocation) on this announcement? I know there’s been a few threads on it before but has your general attitude towards crypto investment changed in recent months? +Since almost all of us are in the red let's at least console ourselves in knowing we aren't alone...So honestly how much are you DOWN from your investment total $ put in vs approx current total value of your crypto portfolio + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/9ymlw4) +Here is mine? + +My daughter misplaced a $10 gift card and it made me start to think about some of the dumbest lost money moment of my life. Besides investments that didn’t work out. I thought about a time at work when I was asked to fly across the country to present to another team and as a token of appreciation the local manager gave me a $1000 Visa gift card. I put it in my wallet only to forget about it. I went to use it a few years later only to discover that it expired. On top of that or course the $1000 was added to my paystub for taxes. So lost the 1k and paid out of pocket for it as well. Dumb move. What is yours? +First of all. Sorry if this is unpopular, but I needed to say it somewhere and the original r/wsb is just not the place. Since all of this GME started, wsb started to not feel the same at all. It's not what it used to be and now I am sad and concerned about it. + + For me, the peak was when it was around 1.8 million people in it, was just amazing, a incredible mix of actually good DD, video memes of really good quality, gains porn, lose porn and a lot of discussion for many companies (not just like 2 or 1 how it is going now) now is just low quality posts (90% fucking photos or ss of some stupid shit without actual value for the community) literally just looking for karma. + +Someone said in a comment: "wsb used to be smart people acting like retards, now is just full of actual retards" and I agree 100% with it. Do you even remember TSLA, PLTR, ARKK, NIO etc? No. WSB is now just A LOT of people that really don't understand what wsb was about, is obvious that this was going to happen when more than 7 million arrive in like 2 weeks, the older ones (us) are just now a minority in our own sub. + +This is absolutely not cool, I feel like we are actually losing something really beautiful, and that is the old (1 month ago) WSB. What do you guys think? Do you feel the same in any sort of way? And most importantly... Should we do something about it? + + +PLEASE DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO THETAGANG + +Thanks for reading +https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/decoding-nse-chitra-ramkrishnas-mysterious-guru/article65046366.ece/amp/ + +She claims that she was guided by an invisible, shape-shifting Himalayan Yogi who could manifest any where at will and who guided her management decisions. What in God's sweet name, was SEBI doing, and how did the NSE Board greenlight her actions? + +What's actually going on? It's obvious that the Yogi bit is a coverup and she's being fed this by her handlers. What a joke our financial markets are. 🤷‍♀️ + +An excerpt from one of his emails about "managing" the FinMin, PMO and FIs: +"We need to make noises on self-listing by knocking on the doors of FM, PMO Somanathan, Cabinet Secretary, Economic Advisor, and finally the PM. These are not difficult as you think we must do two people in a mix at a time Kanchan will evaluate as per MY will. ‘Straw knows when to be a capillary and when NOT to.’ Kanchan is the straw and I will be the suction force for this and you will vomit all that is required as always. After doing rounds intermittently we must sound SEBI that ministry is also pressing for listing even if we need to do these adjustments..(self Listing),” said an email dated December 4, 2015 from the ‘yogi’ to Ramkrishna. +Industry lifer here who has made enough to retire several times over but keeps working at a MM firm because I just love the game. I feel a duty to let you know that the current top post on this sub is full of horrible information. + +People are for some reason upvoting OP's "rebuttal" to u/spintwig, a "rebuttal" that contains absolutely zero empirical information of any sort, and zero value other than apparently being what people want to hear. + +In reality, everything you need to know about OP's actual knowledge of trading can be seen here: + +>“market makers”, is short hand for anyone making real money in finance today. Alpha would take a huge hit if your average American knew even a little more about money management. +> It is just like any field, the people making the money try to keep you out! + +If OP actually knew what a market maker was, he'd know that I want you IN! I want you to trade as much as possible! That's how I make my money! + +Entire context if you care: https://old.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/j4yswq/wheel_spy_holding/g7qikp4/ + +There was one person posting correct answers in that thread and that was /u/imnotarobotyouare, who is 100% correct that anyone who is basing current trading decisions on the cost at which the thing was acquired is falling victim to the anchoring fallacy. This is literally one of the first things we teach junior traders at our firm. It doesn't matter if your shares were acquired at $0, $10, or $1000; you make models based on marks and theos and you trade based on NOW. That's it. And yet the people saying this, the people who knew what they were talking about, were shouted down in spintwig's original thread. I get why the experienced people don't stick around this sub and nearly all the active accounts have less than a year of experience trading. + +OK back into the shadows for a bit until something else comes along to really offend me. 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Therefore, projects launching on the platform maybe weeks apart, but fully vetted. +This project is being offered by the community, for the community. +In addition to the launchpad the project has incorporated best of features from previous projects to offer a all in one project, which no other project has offered in the crypto space thus far. +• Auto buy-back bot (“Rocket Bot”, as named by the community) +• BUSD rewards +• Lamborghini giveaways + +&#x200B; + +📝 Rockenomics + +>📣 5% Buyback +> +>📣 3% redistribution in BUSD +> +>📣 2% Marketing +> +>📣 2% Development +> +>📣 2% Selling tax adding to liquidity +28M almost approaching 8 digit net worth + +tl;dr; acquired my initial significant sum through working on some side hustle with a lot of luck. proceeded to reinvest into assets such as acquiring businesses, real estate, public equities and taking time to learn new skills with multiple mentors. + +it all happened so fast. fast forward to today, i have only revealed to my direct family to pay off all of their mortgage and student loans. + +General wisdom I have gathered regarding windfall was to stay low key. How has your experience been? Any tips/wisdom for the younger crowd? +Volkswagen AG, the world's second-largest automaker, has joined Tesla's lobbying camp in calling on the Indian government to lower import duties on electric cars to spur demand for cleaner vehicles. + +Gurpratap Boparai, managing director of Volkswagen's Skoda Auto India, said that even if import tariffs on electric cars were cut to 25 percent from the current level of up to 100 percent, it would not pose a "huge threat" to domestic companies in India, but would instead help drive investment. + +[Volkswagen Joins Tesla in Calling on India to Lower EV Import Duties](https://www.asiantechpress.com/volkswagen-joins-tesla-in-calling-on-india-to-lower-ev-import-duties.html) +Recently there has been a screenshot of a NYSE SRO filing being circulated purporting to show that NYSE is "suspending a ton of dark pool groups." Or that NYSE is appealing an SEC ruling or something like that. + +So to start, NYSE has nothing to do with dark pools. NYSE is a lit exchange regulated under the Exchange Act, while dark pools are "Alternative Trading Systems" regulated completely differently (a combination of the SEC and FINRA). The filing, which is [available here](https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/markets/nyse-arca/rule-filings/filings/2021/Arca.pdf) has a much more relevant excerpt that was obviously not included in the original tweet: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rrw9kh4abay61.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=51b630cc4e4a3cc3b85287b459e6898365ade3d1 + +Here's what happened. Certain rule changes by exchanges are "immediately effective" - the rule change takes effect when the exchange lets the SEC know, because the exchange deems the rule change non-controversial. I won't get into whether this should even exist as an option here, it's a long and conflicted story. + +The NYSE filed a change to co-location as immediately effective, and several clients of the NYSE contracted to receive the service. The SEC then decided that the rule change was not ok, and told NYSE they couldn't do it. NYSE is asking the SEC to allow them to provide the service while those clients transition off of it, because those clients (including other exchanges) likely rely on it for their NYSE data. + +If you're interested in reading SRO files, you can find them here: [https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro.shtml) + +I used to read every single SRO filing every money, and it was the best way to deeply learn about market structure. They're incredibly boring and written in obtuse legalese, but once you learn to read them you'll learn a lot. + +The entire SRO status is frankly crazy, and I touched on it in my AMA. Wall St is the only industry in which you have for-profit, publicly traded, self-regulatory organizations. An SRO is supposed to be a quasi-governmental entity that regulates itself, and that balances the for-profit motive with a duty to build and maintain fair and efficient markets. If that sounds as absurd to you as it does to me, welcome to modern market structure. +Isn’t holding cash supposed to be to worst position during inflation? According to [this article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/there-is-an-asset-class-that-is-doing-well-morning-brief-100047898.html), cash gang is beating the market. How is this possible during a period of high inflation? +There are 4 basic reasons people came in to purchase a car. + +Current car is messy: +I sold a ton of cars to people who's current car they hated simply because it was dirty. Some elbow grease or paying for a good detail could have saved them $20k. + +Wanted new technology: +I sold $50k cars weekly because of Bluetooth capabilities. No matter how old your car is, you can add this to any existing car for around $200. Cheaper if your DIY. + +Wanted it as a status symbol: +Cars always look amazing at a dealership where they are waxed, clean, and smothered in Armor All and tire shine. In two weeks the difference between your old car and your new car will probably be negligible. The whole status symbol thing really only lasts a few weeks. Most of your peers don't know the difference between a new and much older models if they are both dirty. + +Mechanical problems: +This is the only reason I would advise anyone to purchase a car. Eventually the repairs get to the point where its more expensive to keep it than to move on. If you are buying a car for anyother reason than this... don't! + +EDIT: Reading the comments, I figured I should address some general thoughts. + +Safety isn't something I meantioned before, but probably should have. Regardless of how reliable a car is, if you are driving something with a rusted frame and 20 year old safety features its time to upgrade (assuming you can afford it). My wife and kids drive in a 5 star crash rating car with every modern safety feature. We have chose to be stingy in other places in our finances so we can afford to have a car with these types of features. Its worth a little bit of money to us to know our family is safe and to be able to see when backing out of the driveway. + +That moment when repairs out way the cost of upgrading is tricky. I have been burned several times by spending money on repairs that I thought were a good investment only to have more and more repairs pile up. I wish I knew some perfect rule for this. I don't. I have repaired cars I shouldn't have and I have gotten rid of cars that probably would have been great with minor investments. +Here's a pic of it... https://i.imgur.com/6jHszXS.jpg + +I remember getting a notice that the 1 share split into 2 many years ago. Since then I've moved quite a bit and the address that's listed on the cert is waay old, so I never received any other official notices about the bankruptcy or notices about Disney's acquisition, etc. + +Candidly I have no idea about anything stock related, so for all I know this certificate is nothing more than fancy wall art at this point. Any ideas? +Sometimes I get the vibe here that most people are lurking to learn from people like us who figured out how to retire early but they don’t realize for many of us it just sort of happened. We didn’t plan it 20 years ago but we either came into some cash, sold businesses, or climbed the corporate ladder and saved. + +I bring this up because I am seeing more and more people here who are designing their life in a way that could let them down if a few lucky breaks don’t happen. + +I mentioned this is my opinion because I’m not sure, but it’s what I think from talking to many people and following this page for a while. + +I’d be curious to hear from those who have fired. Was this the plan all along, or did the opportunity present itself, then you realized you could fire? + +Me, I got the itch when I started making money. For most of my life I assumed I’d be working until I was dead. +These seem to make up 50% of the content here and don't really add that much to the discussion. + +I joined hoping to find more information on general trends, platforms and interesting company news etc, but there's So much noise focused on the individual rather than the market. +I had always thought of a single payer system as being cheaper because of saving in areas like admin costs, lack of a profit motive, and the ability to negotiate lower prices for drugs, however I'm also seeing articles (from [CRFB](http://www.crfb.org/blogs/how-much-will-medicare-all-cost), [CBO](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55150), [Rand](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3106.html), and [HealthAndEconomy](https://healthandeconomy.org/medicare-for-all-leaving-no-one-behind/)) that say that a single payer system like the one proposed by bernie would cost upwards of $21-27 trillion over 10 years in extra funding (Which means the spending required to run such a single payer system is far higher than what we currently spend), as opposed to bernie's estimate, which is a lot lower. Are these articles just a bunch of nonsense or is it bernie who's in wrong? +**📱 Follow ShibaSushi on Telegram to learn about the project, get updates, ask questions and participate in giveaways and raffles! 📱 Get recent updates on ShibaSushi’s P2E Classic Mini Games that are in development.** + + +Don’t miss out on the next opportunity to get in early on a great project! ShibaSushi offers $BUSD rewards for holders and serves as the utility token for their classic online mini games collection. + + +**📲📲 Join ShibaSushi on Telegram 📲📲** + +[https://t.me/shibasushi\_official](https://t.me/shibasushi_official) + + +🔥Just Launched on Pancakeswap (< 1 week) + +🔥Rapidly Growing Organic Community (Telegram & Twitter) + +🔥Aggressive Marketing Campaigns to Spread the Word! + + +**👉 What is ShibaSushi?** + +ShibaSushi is a rewards token developed with the investor in mind. This project holds an incredibly high investor benefit featuring $BUSD rewards/reflections for all $SHIBS holders. The innovative smart contract promotes a constant market volume so that holders can earn passive $BUSD earnings while they sleep! + + +**👉 Is there a use for ShibaSushi Token besides rewards?** + +Yes! ShibaSushi is also designed as the utility token to participate in the upcoming P2E Classic Mini Games Collection, where players can play classic games to win a staked jackpot. There are 3 games in the works including multiplayer ShibaSnake, ShibaPong, and Shiba Connect 4. + + +**👉 I have been a member of ShibaSushi for one week. What are my observations?** + +After spending a week following ShibaSushi in their Telegram group & Twitter I have seen massive community growth, great vibes in the community and a lot of marketing from the team. The entire team is very friendly and willing to answer any questions anyone might have. Their admin team is very responsive and helpful. + + +**💎 Tokenomics:** + +📌 Total Supply: 1,000,000,000,000,000 + +💵 Rewards 6.5% $BUSD + +📢 Marketing: 2% + +🔹 Liquidity: 2% + +🔥 Auto-Burn: 2% + +**💚 Join the community and feel the love & great vibe!** + + +ShibaSushi’s team has provided a variety of social platforms that you can engage with and communicate with other people in the project. You can feel free to contact the team and ask them anything questions you have! I have done it myself and they are happy to answer any and all questions. + +&#x200B; + +**🌐 Website:** [https://www.shibasushi.co/](https://www.shibasushi.co/) + +**📱 Telegram:** [https://t.me/shibasushi\_official](https://t.me/shibasushi_official) + +**🕊 Twitter:** [https://twitter.com/ShibaSushiToken](https://twitter.com/ShibaSushiToken) +If I were to live a lifestyle where I constantly have to use credit cards due to spending more money than I earn, eventually debts will spiral out of control, I won't be able to pay them back, I won't be able to borrow money any more, and not only do I end up where I started in terms of financial constraints to my expenditure, I'm worse off because I have a mountain of debt I wouldn't otherwise have to contribute to out of my income. Unless we're talking about something like a house, where realistically it makes sense to 'buy now, pay for later' and borrowing isn't irresponsible. + +When it comes to policy at state and international level, however, this type of thing seems to be the norm. Nations behave like an individual maxing out credit cards to sustain a lifestyle they can't pay for, which eventually must come crashing down. I know that in theory, governments should take advantage of economic cycles, borrow money during bad times to stimulate the economy and keep the coffers full, then run a budget surplus when the good times are back and pay off all debts until the next economic downturn. I practice, this doesn't happen, though. Nations seem to be in a permanent budget deficit, permanently borrowing, permanently in debt, regardless of what the economy is doing, and it looks as though this will remain the case for the foreseeable future. + +Are the governments of the world aware that economies running on borrowed money is unsustainable, and simply lack the political will to do anything about it because of how unpopular measures to correct this would be, so kick the can down the road for the next people in power or until the whole system collapses? Or do the rules that apply to individuals not apply to economies, and debt can continue forever sustainably? It is assumed you can continue to borrow perpetually if growth outstrips debt? Isn't this assumption irresponsible, then? +All the shit I have to hear in the office. + +The god damn "i-told-ya-so" from John. "I have no idea how stocks or anything like that work but i know bullshit when i see it. I can't believe people were dumb enough to buy fake money." + +Yea ok mate, if i need a status update on that box of donuts in the break room, you're my go-to guy. other than that? shut up and go back to being shit at your job. + +Then you've got Becky, flapping her useless mouth in the background who "knew" bitcoin was a scam when her boyfriend's Sister's cousin told her that the "bitcoin inventor guy" posted on his website that he was selling all his bitcoin. + +"Money can't just be numbers on screens, that's not how money works. it has to be something you can hold as well! With all this net neutrality stuff going on you'd be crazy to invest in money that they can just shut down with the flick of a switch!" + +Becky, last week i heard you ask the IT guy if you needed two mice plugged in to your computer if you want to use two screens at once and now you have a working knowledge of both the monetary system, crypto currencies AND the internet?! that's very impressive. + +I have no idea why this is annoying me so much, I just found the need to rant while waiting for a meeting to start. + +Edit: people seem to have come to some weird conclusions that i've been doing nothing but come to work and try sell crypto to the entire office. the "i told ya so" isn't directed at me or anyone in particular, it's just general chatter around the office. i'm not printing out weekly bitcoin news letters to put on peoples desks or waiting by their car at night to ask why they haven't bought BTC. + +Try not to jump to conclusions based on a semi-satirical piece of information. + +Don't be a John or a Becky + +the salty no-coiner input here is the best part. shout out to /r/all and probably /r/buttcoin +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM). +&#x200B; + +# 0. Preface + +Well well, I think it's time to revisit an old topic. Net Capital. I posted about this in the past and for some reason gave up on it. I can now provide **counter DD** **to my own T+21/T+35 theory**. + +Remember - I am not a financial advisor and I do not provide financial advice! Everything in here is based on research and discussion with others on the topics. As always, do your own research and criticize. Take my opinions with a grain of salt. + +Wanting to revisit the Net Capital topic was a few things. There were posts about ETF FTDs spiking **severely** as of May 12th - even more than the highest peaks of January. I had my own doubts over time of how we could possibly have multiple cycles overlapping, when it felt more like there would be only a single cycle. And of course, some people commented and/or posted counter DD! Which I think is awesome, it's always good to provide counter DD. + +Kenny and his gang love to continue digging a hole for themselves - while the whole financial world tries desperately to contain this potential market crash from coming to fruition. + +GME shorts and Reverse Repo Market go **brrrrrrrr**. + +**TLDR: Sorry I'm too lazy right now. About to post this and go to sleep. 😎** + +[Kenny And The Boys](https://preview.redd.it/p9ruup81br471.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=459845688e21d10000f45ba7e81c9de8a6839321) + +My previous post about [Net Capital](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/) was thinking that we'd see significant price movement T+14 days after April 16th options expirations. That didn't happen, so I tossed it out of the window. (Criand, you dumb bitch) + +Which then led me down the path of the [T+21 Loop Missing Link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nf22qz/theory_on_the_ftd_loop_missing_link_a_t35_surge/). It got pretty popular. It's the whole T+21/T+35 conjunction theory that occurred May 24th and May 25th. While it definitely **appears** to be right, **I have been doubting it ever since May 24th**. Especially after a courageous ape u/dentisttft posted the [Counter DD to T+21](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsady3/t21_is_not_actually_a_thing_counter_dd/) theory. T+35 (May 24th) didn't have significant enough price movement. If it truly was a new T+35 initiating a loop, then it should have exploded up in price on May +24th. And for that, I think it's time to put that theory to bed. + +**The counter DD that** /u/dentisttft **posted is excellent and you should definitely take a look. If my post is wrong,** /u/dentisttft **still proposes another possibility: that T+35 from the FTD spike could initiate buy pressure around June 17th.** + +Ever since the counter DD, I decided to revisit Net Capital since that is what /u/keijikage brought to my attention so many weeks ago. Very smart guy by the way! Always very knowledgeable and provides amazing discussion! + +Looking back on Net Capital now, especially with the ETF FTD spike that occurred on May 12th, it might finally paint the picture as to what has been going on this whole time with the "T+21 cycle", the March Gamma Ramp, and the June Gamma Ramp. + +# 1. GME FTDs, ETF FTDs, Massive Resurgence Started May 12 + +First, I want to discuss ETF FTDs, as something absolutely wild occurred in May. Note that we do **not** have the full months FTD data yet. The SEC releases the data in first half and second half of the month reports. So, it cuts off quite conveniently when FTDs began to go haywire. + +For a while now it's been theorized ([with some pretty damn good evidence](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrpjle/almost_1b_ftd_on_may_14th_between_gme_and/)) that ETFs containing GME have been heavily shorted. Supposedly they will short the ETF, buy up all of the other stocks in the ETF that were shorted, but leave GME alone. There's a net 0 effect on the other stocks but a net short on GME. This then starts to cause ETF FTD anomalies which they also try to suppress, but they can't hide forever. Because it appears that as of May 12th, these FTDs have begun to spill out of hiding. + +u/basketas87 posted about this surge of ETF FTDs in "[New data shows a large increase of ETF FTDs](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nx013v/new_data_shows_a_large_increase_of_etf_ftds/)": + +[GME Price Vs. GME FTDs and ETF FTDs \(which contain GME\); Source: \/u\/basketas87](https://preview.redd.it/h7iq2v4njq471.png?width=1122&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4fbbca80002197058a20c5d8654e08ba8b4dbae) + +You can immediately see the ETF FTDs absolutely **SKYROCKETED** just before the cutoff of the SEC FTD bi-monthly report. **We don't even know how high this has gone in the following days or if its come crashing back down**. **Remember - these are aggregate. We don't sum up the FTDs between dates. Whatever the number is upon a date is the current total of FTDs reported.** + +For a date-by-date tracking for these FTDs between January and the end of March, /u/broccaaa provided an excellent chart in "[The naked shorting scam using ETFs: mass shifting of FTDs from GME to 20+ ETFs & 27+ billion dollars still owed in remaining SI](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n1x75w/the_naked_shorting_scam_using_etfs_mass_shifting/)". This gives us an easier look at the exact dates when FTDs spiked earlier in the year. + +> I selected GME and 19 ETFs containing GME. I chose to only look at the ETFs that contain the most GME shares and had large numbers of FTDs in 2021. - /u/broccaaa + +[Aggregate FTDs for GME; GME and ETFs; Source: \/u\/broccaaa](https://preview.redd.it/choe9jjris471.png?width=1709&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e907654b1e054734098c010839ec5ad07ab0633) + +Some notable aggregate FTD dates from this chart: + +1. January 29th +2. February 2nd +3. February 18th + +And of course, the latest absolutely insane **May 12th**. Once again, we don't even know what the FTD numbers are for the second half of May. It could very well be much higher. + +# 2. Net Capital And Market Makers; Citadel's Can-Kicked Bag + +Net Capital is detailed out [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n4h832/major_deep_itm_call_option_dates_a_massive_net/) but I will do a quick summary. It revolves around [Net Capital Requirements For Brokers or Dealers - 240.15c3-1](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.15c3-1): + +>...is designed to ensure that a broker-dealer holds, at all times, more than one dollar of highly liquid assets for each dollar of liabilities (e.g., money owed to customers and counterparties), excluding liabilities that are subordinated to all other creditors by contractual agreement. The premise underlying the net capital rule is that if a broker-dealer fails, it should be in a position to meet all unsubordinated obligations to customers and counterparties and generate resources sufficient to wind down its operations in an orderly manner without the need of a formal proceeding... +...**A broker-dealer must ensure that its actual net capital exceeds its required minimum net capital at all times.** \- [Source](https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/peirce_reframing_ch6.pdf) + +Or in other words, you must have enough capital to not be "margin-called". In this case, Citadel is a prime victim to this rule as they are a Market Maker and must sustain enough net capital to not go bust. If they do not, they're a risk to their customers and counterparties. This rule tries to ensure that they have enough money to pay up in the event of a default. + +The very interesting part of this rule comes down to how they're calculating Net Capital in regards to short securities: + +[Net Capital Rule; Short Securities Deduction From Net Capital Per \\"Days After Discovery\\"](https://preview.redd.it/jzzkxo2qsq471.png?width=1311&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b26ce9297defa1c10492f9d1e2b2c6a1bc07252) + +What this basically means is that after the short security difference is found to be unresolved after discovery (think FTD popping up is the "discovery"), then it's going to slowly start eating away at their net capital the longer it remains unresolved/undelivered: + +* Day 0 after discovery = 0% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital +* Day 7 after discovery = 25% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital +* Day 14 after discovery = 50% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital +* Day 21 after discovery = 75% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital +* Day 28 after discovery = 100% of the unresolved short security is calculated into their net capital + +When you have these debts accounted for into your net capital, it is taking away that value, because it is a short difference you **owe**. As the days go by, net capital starts chunking down. So, if you have a rather large short security difference discovered one day (such as May 12th) then you want to resolve it quickly or risk defaulting. + +Do you find a way to stuff the unresolved shorts back under the rug? Do you deliver and force buy-ins? Both? That appears to be the loop they've been stuck in, which slowly bumps the price floor upward. + +You'll notice that there's a familiar number in there. **Day 21**. T+21? Oooh. Tasty. **Here we go**. + +The total timeframe for Net Capital is [28 days](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST2H8FWDvEA), but Citadel most likely cannot allow the Net Capital threshold to go past 75%. They must kick-the-can and force buy-ins on or before T+7, T+14, T+21 but complete the entire process by the net 75% threshold of T+21. They can't risk it going to 100% or else they'll most likely default. + +Wham, bam, the T+21 loop ignites itself continuously. + +# 3. Plotting The Net Capital Loop - The Counter of T+21 and T+35 + +The major option dates still play a big role. But I don't think T+35 theory is what's really applying here. + +What are "major options"? These are the **only** options that were available for the year 2021 back in early 2020. These are the option dates that were most likely opened up initially by shorters at the start of COVID. Perfect time to place bets and start their kill shot on GameStop: + +* January 15, 2021 +* April 16, 2021 +* July 16, 2021 + +Upon expiration, unrealized losses now became realized losses, and their overall capital receives a dent. It most likely gets harder to hide FTDs and hide them under the rug. + +You know the most curious thing? + +**Posts about Citadel working the night-shift started just after April 16th options expirations**. + +**That's also right around when Bank of America shut down a bunch of their locations. I won't buy their excuses. Bank of America looks like they're a bag holder and is freaking out too.** + +Something big had to of happened as of April 16th, and it's most likely that they had a huge dent in their capital that is now causing a slow bleed-out of FTDs that they've hidden, which then must be satisfied within the Net Capital timeframe of T+7, T+14, T+21, T+28, or else they can go net negative and default. + +And of course, following April 16 options expirations, the ETF FTDs start to skyrocket on May 12th. My main intuition is that they were unable to hide these any more and they have started to spill out. Ruh-roh. + +First, I'll plot out the T+21 Net Capital loop so that it isn't **too** cluttered: + +[Plotted Net Capital \\"T+21\\" Cycle, December 22 to July 26](https://preview.redd.it/xh4u2ugmfs471.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=85188eccc2bf3841bb98e37e5be98b8badcc01c7) + +Upon December 22, the clock starts ticking. It's possible that at this point the price was too high for them to **NOT** worry about Net Capital any more, and they had to start can-kicking and forced buy-ins. + +Each loop is separated T+21 because it appears that they cannot sustain higher than the 75% threshold each time. You can see the T+21 loop we're familiar with, starting December 22, and then traveling through January 25, February 24, March 25, April 26, May 25. And potentially continuing on to June 24 and July 26. \[The next two dates if any apes are curious\]. + +To get a closer look of the potential effects of the various Threshold amounts (T+7 (25%), T+14 (50%), T+21 (75%)) I've zoomed in on March 25th to May 25th. **ENHANCE**! + +[Plotted Net Capital \\"T+21\\" Cycle, March 25 to May 25, Price Spikes Prior to Each Threshold \(T+7, T+14\) Date](https://preview.redd.it/p6q5gox9fs471.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=4da6c3ed2e8547ccd755b95ee895be235cbf9d44) + +In the above it's **unlikely** but there is a chance that they have too many FTDs to shuffle around by the time Net Capital 25% (T+7) Threshold hits. This could initiate some buy-in pressure on or before that date, typically the day before, as outlined in the **light green** circle. The day before because they don't want those positions to be 50% upon the next day. They must be resolved **BEFORE**. + +It is also **unlikely** but a greater chance that they have too many FTDs to shuffle around by the time Net Capital 50% (T+14) Threshold hits. This again could initiate some buy-in pressure on or before that date, typically the day before, as outlined in the **blue** circle. + +And of course upon Net Capital 75% (T+21) Threshold, they must complete their rug-hiding and/or buy-ins to avoid going Net Negative. It is possible that the rug-hiding and buy-ins are in conjunction with one another, slowly increasing the price floor, and that **between each threshold they try to short the stock more to push down the price**. + +Looping back to Section 1 when we identified the major FTD dates: + +1. January 29th +2. February 2nd +3. February 18th +4. May 12th + +There's a potential relationship to be seen with these insane FTD dates. Now this chart I'm about to show is highly speculative. I'm unsure if the Net Capital loop initiates upon the FTD spikes (though it certainly should, per Net Capital rule, because that would be when they are "discovered"). + +I say I'm unsure because I only see one data point here so far and somewhat of a second data point from the price run-up we've been seeing the past few days. + +[Plotted Net Capital \\"T+21\\" Cycle, December 22 to July 26, and FTD Spike Relationship](https://preview.redd.it/424mtt66sq471.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b11bb6a0a8f06bafb2471e7dfc0b64c90f1cb1a) + +In the above picture, look at January 29th's FTD spike. Plotting the full 28 days of Net Capital out where 100% of the debts would be accounted for, that lands it on March 11th. They want to resolve this **before** March 11th, while the debts are still 75% accounted for. Remember that date? March 10th? I sure do. This **could** be why we saw the price spike, and why T+35 is incorrect in theory. But, it appears the major option dates still play a role, because of the May 12th FTD spike that just occurred, which followed April 16th options. Likewise, the January 15th options may have initiated the FTD spikes around January 29th and February 2nd. + +If the **same** situation occurs due to the May 12th FTDs, then plotting out the full 28 days of Net Capital lands us on June 22nd. **If** these FTDs initiated Net Capital T+0 upon May 12th, then things could get crazy on or before June 22nd. + +It is very possible that the run-up from May 25th to June 8th was all due to this new set of FTDs, and they had to start buy-ins on or before T+14 and T+21 from May 12th due to the sheer amount of unresolved shorts that were eating away at their Net Capital. If the FTDs aren't fully hidden again or all the buy-ins aren't complete, there's still T+28 to look towards, which lands on **June 22nd**. They would need to hide these FTDs again and/or buy-in on or before June 22nd. This would keep in line with the March 10th squeeze. + +This could also very well explain what was going on with AMC. (Don't freak out on me yet, I love looking at AMC because it's very good analysis to track. It's been following the **same exact T+21 pattern** as GME) + +# 4. AMC Behavior - Given Up On By Shorts? Too Expensive To Juggle With GME? + +AMC has gone on an absolute RUN. It increased nearly 70% in one day. Take a look at the following chart now that you know about Net Capital and the different T+7, T+14, T+21, T+28 Thresholds: + +[AMC Behavior from May 12th to June 24th](https://preview.redd.it/xn0tukmw4r471.png?width=1434&format=png&auto=webp&s=a679b5628fd370944ba680b6de0bf5e6dcadd35a) + +Damn. Did they just GIVE UP on AMC and decide that it's too much to deal with? Do they not have enough capital to deal with both GME and AMC (and possibly other short meme stocks)? I think so, because this lines up quite well. They had to fix Net Capital for AMC by T+7 (25%) Threshold on June 4th probably because it was too expensive to handle alongside GME, and GME is the one they **really** need to keep their ammo for. + +Between T+7 and T+14, they of course short some more, trying to pull the price down in preparation of the next Threshold cycle of T+14, which will probably cause an equivalent or greater amount of buy-ins. This lands on... June 15th. And if it's like previous cycles, that would imply that they want to do the buy-ins by June 14th (next Monday) to avoid those unresolved shorts hitting the next threshold amount. Big price spike coming again? + +Even then, the current T+21 cycle isn't over. The threshold of 75% doesn't land until June 24th, where things very likely will continue to spike upward with an equivalent or greater spike of the run before T+7 (25%) Threshold. + +I truly think that they've put all of their effort into containing GME and have more or less "given up" on AMC because it's not as big of a deal to them. That's why it's mooning like crazy while GME is taking a little time to wake up. + +# 5. GME Behavior - Shorts Holding On As Long As They Can + +With the same exact timeframe of AMC, let's finally look at GME and the current cycle going on. The ETF FTDs from May 12th line up T+28 (100% Net Capital Threshold) on June 22nd. Again, **if** the Net Capital loop initiated upon that FTD spike, then things could get absolutely wild on or just before June 22nd. + +Otherwise, it might just be the standard T+21 Net Capital loop, which has that extra pressure from the ETF FTDs, where the Net Capital loop initiated on May 25th, and ends on June 24th. + +[GME Behavior from May 12th to June 24th](https://preview.redd.it/p3yueytz4r471.png?width=1441&format=png&auto=webp&s=48a0f3e70ac922a345e5b58c0219bd1470dff2ab) + +By the time of T+7 (25% Threshold), it appears that they really needed to apply some buy-ins, and the price started to rise quite significantly. Just like AMC, but not as extreme, because they want to put all of their energy into keeping this bad boy from popping off. + +Once again... take a look when T+14 (50% Threshold) will hit. June 15th. From the above analysis, the buy-ins would occur on or before this threshold date, typically right before. Know where that lands? Next Monday. June 14th. + +It's possible that they won't be able to sustain to the 75% threshold any more, but now must sustain the 50% threshold of T+14 where they need to resolve their unresolved shorts by. + +**Maybe** there will be a big price spike next Monday. Otherwise, keep an eye out for the T+28 date of the ETF FTDs, landing June 22nd, or the original T+21 date, landing June 24th. + +I believe we're also waiting for the Russell 1000 change the week of June 24th. ;) +Ever wonder if taking a second job or extra shifts is really worth it? Wonder if your spouse working a light job will really help? + +If you have high interest debt like credit cards, the answer is absolutely yes! + +At the average credit card rate of 15% or higher, every dollar you pay now saves 2 dollars by the time you pay it off. So that extra $7.75 or $10 per hour becomes $15.50 or $20 per hour when you take into effect how much it saves you when you put it towards paying off that high interest debt. + +Even if you don't have high interest debt and you have a decent mortgage, over the life of a 20 or 30 year mortgage you pay nearly $2 for every dollar you took out. + +So paying an extra $5000 a year up front from a 10 hour a week second job will end up saving you nearly $10,000, or almost a year of payments for every year you work the second job. + +If you work an extra 10 hours a week for 10 years and put that towards the average mortgage, it will save you 10 years of payments for the equivalent of only 2.5 years of full time work. + +So yes, if you work a little extra and put that towards your debt, you can dramatically improve your debt situation and free up years of your life in the future. + +It DOES make a difference. Don't let anyone tell you it doesn't. +I’d like to be a little open about all my finances for a second. I’m hoping maybe I can gain some different perspectives from you guys on r/personalfinance and choices/paths I can maybe take. + +I’m currently 24, graduated with a BFA about 2 years ago and now I am currently in a toxic salary paying job and feel seriously stuck and moderately depressed about my life. By stuck, I mean I feel like my financial situation is significantly preventing me from taking risks, or switching careers, or pursuing my career in a different state. + + +My salary is 61k/year. +Which comes to about 3,550/month after taxes. + +I am contributing around 5-6% to my 401(k) and the company matches 100% up to 4%. + + +For monthly bills, I’ve got: + +Mortgage: 1358.00. +HOA: 170.00. +Water: 33.00. +Electric/heat: 130.00. +Internet: 65.00. +Cellphone: 70.00. +Car loan: 274.00. +Car insurance 190.00. +Car gas: 70.00. +Counseling 250.00. +Student loan minimum payment: 400.00. +Parent plus loan: 500.00. +Groceries: 250.00. + +Totals to: 3760.00 + + +Obviously I’m negative each month, but I am a 3D artist so I usually pick up some side projects to keep me a float. + + +I guess I’m frustrated because I feel like I am always working, day and night and at the end of the month I have absolutely no money left. I’ve gone into a deep depression because I haven’t been doing anything fun in my world because I’ve been working my butt off to pay bills off each month. + +I went into 3D because I was passionate about it and really wanted to make a career out of it, hopefully to make a decent amount of money where I had a little freedom to save up for stuff. But after getting out of college I’ve come to realization of how savage the industry is and how it would be impossible for me to take a junior/mid level position in the states where most of the jobs are posted. (California or Vancouver) + +Happy to answer any additional questions, + +Greatly appreciate any response! + + +edit: Wow, I did not expect this to blow up... I have to go to work right now but I will make sure I read everything and respond when I can. + + + + +* Never underestimate the power of a momentum move. Up or Down. Once the freight train is in motion, it will keep going much further than most have anticipated. +* Price is the only thing that matters. Adapt to it, don't fight it. +* Don't under estimate the power of desperate money managers in the fourth quarter. They need to beat their bench marks or risk losing their jobs/clients. +* Mental stops will ensure you an emotional trade. Don't use mental stops. You are either in the trade or not. Mental stops invite emotions. +* Mental stops is another way of saying : "I am not sure where to place my stop" +* Adding to a losing position is one of the best ways to end your trading career. +* The biggest winning trades normally have big volume driving them higher. +* Trading triple ETFS will deplete the account over the long term. +* "Too many eyes" on a key breakout point will most likely cause that pattern to fail first. AKA ; fuckery. Revisit the "NEW" setup after the fuckery has shaken out the majority. +* Sentiment is always more negative on bottom retests than in the FIRST low. Watch out above if the retest is successful. +* Most double bottoms come with strong MACD/RSI divergences. A powerful event if you see this. +* Be aware of stocks that take "too long to go". early indication of demand drying up. +* The best trade setups, work immediately after they trigger. They barely give you a chance of to jump on board. +* The best traders are incredibly nimble. They can be bearish but still capable to taking longs without hesitation. +* Perma bears and perma bulls eventually get washed out of the market. You have to respect a strong bull market and you have to respect a mean bear market. +* More trades does NOT equal more profits. LESS IS MORE. +* The best traders I know, keep their routine very simple. +* Price charts and volume is all you need. Most indicators are noise the majority of the time. +* Never confuse YOUR macro views with what is actually happening in the stock market. +* Economy could be in recession but if the market is rallying, you need to listen to the market. It pays better. +* Fighting the trend doesn't pay well. In general, trading with a trend, pays off much better. +* Get aggressive when you make 2-3 good trades back to back. +* Get VERY defensive when you make 2-3 bad trades. Often times traders will do the opposite. (Self destructive behavior). +* Trading on margin is the surest way to emotional decision making and eventually will wash you out of the business. +* Never underestimate the confidence building power of a tiny gain that is booked. Green on the screen helps build confidence for future trades. +* Big winning streak start with tiny wins. (The snow ball effect). +* Most losing streaks start because a "basic' rule was broken. Emotions taking over. +* IN bulls markets, if you are to err, err on the long side. NOT SHORT. Short squeezes can be powerful and painful. +* It's ok to be wrong but it's NEVER ok to "STAY WRONG". +* Good fundamental analysis and proper technical trading is a killer combination. Think CANSLIM / IBD (investors Business Daily) +* Too many bullish setups is NOT always a "good thing"/ A plethora of bullish setups normally precedes a big down day. Aka: Fuckery. +* Trading stocks is a lot like a beauty contest. What looks best, wins. +* The best technical patterns is the BULL FLAGS. It comes in many verities. Learn to spot them. +* Candle stick patterns don't mean anything WITHOUT follow thru. A Hammer or a DOJI means nothing unless it gets follow thru the next day. +* Very hard to short a market when the financial stocks(XLF) are strong. +* Trading with 'conviction' is great BUT trading with 'arrogance' is a sure way to the poor house. +* You have to understand, you cannot impose your will on the market. The market is bigger and smarter than you and you need to adapt to it. Not the other way around. +* Sentiment polls are worthless for the most part. Focus on price action. +* More market bottoms take place in October than in any other month. A simple observation that i made over the years. +* Always be aware when short interest on the NYSE starts to hit record highs. Normally means we are getting close to a major bottom. +* In December, small caps and micro cap stocks(junk stocks) come alive. many will double or triple in a few days. +* Keep your approach as simple and basic as possible. Can you explain it to a 10 year old? +* The market is master at forecasting events well ahead of time. by the time, the actual news hits, the market has already discounted it. +* Never short a market in momentum mode. +* Never short a market that is "quiet" or "choppy". +* Trading in choppy market is one of the most difficult and frustrating things to do. +* Shorting over the long run pays very poorly. Odds are heavily stacked against bears over the long run. +* Many strong forces are constantly working against shorts: PPT, short sales bans, government intervention etc. +* Every stock will go thru a period of accumulation, topping out, distribution and bottoming and a new cycle begins. Rinse, repeat..... +* Big long candles on big volume are often the start of something bigger. Scan and track those stocks. Many will end up being big winners. +* Trust your gut, if something doesn't 'feel' right, sell it. Analyze it from the sidelines (emotion free) +* Chat rooms are the best learning tool but be aware of what is noise and what is quality actionable, tradeable information. +* Be ware of trades that "fill easily". The best trades barely give you a 'good price'. +* It takes a brave soul to admit a trade is not working and sell it at a loss. The 'easy' thing to do is carry the position and "hope" it turns. +* Your 'hardest' work should be done while the market is closed. So that when the market opens, you will be prepared once your setups become active. +* Surround yourself with POSITIVE people. haters are hating for a reason. They are LOSING. pure and simple. Positive people are winning or on the right path to winning. +* Work HARD and work SMART. Both are equally important if you want to make a profession from your trades. +* The character of the person will be tested when things are going horribly bad. Will you be the phoenix to rise from the ashes? +* Don't brag, beat your chest when things are going well. Eventually mother market humbles us all. +* The harder you force trades, the more likely to lose. Allow the natural process to happen...naturally. +* Lucky breaks normally come when you are trading well. Unlucky breaks come when you are trading poorly. +* Wining and losing streaks come in cycles. Be aware which cycle YOU are currently in. Be aggressive when winning and confidence is high. +* TOPS are a long process, rarely a single day event. +* Failed breakouts and deterioration of stocks under the surface are the first warning signs. Fewer and fewer stocks left holding up the indexes. +* BOTTOMS are a process, rarely a single event. Many stocks start to bottom well ahead of the indexes. +* Always be aware of what is going on in the "MARKET OF STOCKS", not just the "stock market". Indexes will always react to what is happening to stocks under the surface. +* In bull markets, you buy dips and trade breakouts when momentum is clearly UP. In bear markets, you short weak low volume bounces and short breakdowns when momentum is clearly DOWN. +* Don't be a bull, don't be a bear: Be a predator. constantly lurking and stalking the "easy prey". +* Perma bulls and perma bulls are dangerous, lazy and arrogant. Don't take their views too seriously if you care about YOUR account. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* Catching falling knives will sooner or later land you into a mine field. Big difference between buying a dip and catching a falling knife. +* Swing trading triple ETFs will give you insomnia. Is it really worth it? +* Professional traders know strength begets more strengths. Weakness begets more weakness. +* Anticipate "now" what you think will be 'popular' later. +* Most traders are never "happy" with their trades. Understand that no trade will ever be "PERFECT". +* When a stock breaks out on big volume. The first dip will normally bought up very quickly. +* If you have no solid plan(i.e. Setup, proper entry, stop loss, exit strategy, target), then why are you in the trade? +* Often times, the best trades require you to buy high and sell higher. +* Learn to be patient once in a winning position. Learn to be very impatient when in a losing or questionable position. +* Lowering a stop loss is the first sign of trouble. You are breaking the rules and emotions are starting to creep in. Careful when u see that. +* Never ever, get into a position that is "too BIG" for the account size. All it takes is a bad trades to cripple you beyond repair. +* It's ok to say " I am wrong and what do I need to do now?" +* Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting STRENGTH in a weak tape. +* Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting WEAKNESS in a strong tape. +* Boredom trades costs add up and can hurt you. Be aware of when you are simply bored and looking to trade something "JUST TO TRADE". +* You will never buy the exact bottom and you'll never exact sell the exact top: Don't beat yourself up if "you left money on the table". +* EMOTIONS is what causes most traders to break their rules. +* It's NOT the news that is most important, it's the REACTION to the news. Respect the price action. +* Use YOUR gut. If it doesn't 'feel' right. Remove it. Reassess from the sidelines(emotion free). +* Have a list of setups READY for the following day. Know the trigger prices ahead of time. Have plan: setup, position size, entry, exit, max loss and targets. +* NO plan? NO TRADE! +* 10 times out of 10, Traders who carry BIG losses wishes they had respected their "ORIGINAL" stop. So, respect the ORIGINAL STOP LOSS, ALWAYS! +* Over trading is the POISON for your trading. LESS IS MORE! +* Never chase GAP UPS. Allow the first 45-60 minutes to pass by and then see what is setting up best intra-day. +* You want to enter stocks that have the BEST bases on ALL TIME FRAMES. Weekly, daily, 60 min, 30 min, 10, 5 min. << the more time frames align, the higher the probability the trade. +* Focus on finding "GOOD BASES" :: The longer a stock bases, the more meaningful the breakout. +* Keep a balanced life. It's not all about the screens. Spend time with family, friends: They deserve more attention. +* Stay humble, stay grounded, remember where you came from and where you want to go. What is here today, can easily be gone tomorrow. Respect what you have yet shoot to achieve more. + +The beautiful tips above were written in 2011 and are still very up-to-bullish! + +Credits to Traderstewie: [https://twitter.com/traderstewie](https://twitter.com/traderstewie) + + +**TL;DR: Save for later.** +Benjamin Graham writes 5 signs of historical bubbles in his book, The Intelligent Investor: + +1. Historically high price level + +2. High p/e + +3. Low dividend yields against bond +yields + +4. Much speculation on margin + +5. Many offerings of new common-stocks of poor quality + + +I only miss the bond one since the 10Y treasury is artificially kept low by the fed. + +Opinions? +It still feels too good to be true. I'm giddy. After nearly a year of dead ends, we finally got confirmation and a start date for his new position. We have increased our annual income by 40% and now make a combined income of $80k/year. + +I could cry. We can finally save for a house. I can buy a new phone. We can keep the AC at 73° instead of 80°. We don't have to worry about car payments or how to pay down our debt anymore. We can finally relax and enjoy life and help out our friends and family occasionally. We can buy gifts for holidays, weddings and birthdays. I'm fucking beaming with joy! + +I'm so fucking proud of him. All his hard work finally paid off. It still doesn't feel real. +“If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” - Warren Buffett. + + + +Warren Buffett is my favorite investor (surprising in this subreddit I know) and I love learning from him. This quote got me to thinking as to how he would be able to achieve that. The point of this post is to share my thoughts and to listen to your ideas in regards to achieving something similar to the above quote. + + +The 1-10 million fund size makes it quite clear that the biggest advantage will come from micro/small cap companies. These companies are typically avoided by smart/big money as they're too small to make a meaningful difference in their performance as their funds are too large which gives way for bigger discounts on the market. Any other ideas? Cheers +When I travelled around Asia it was amazing to see how many businesses are booming in the evenings. Office workers who work until 5 or 6pm can go pretty much anywhere after work. + +It is such a huge contrast to here. I often get so annoyed that there are so many places that are only open 9-5. if you’re a white collar worker you either have to use your lunch break or adjust your working hours, which is not possible for most people. + +I welcome more examples: + +- I tried to call TNT to book a parcel pickup. Their call centre is only open 9-5 +- I try to make a GP appointment. Our local clinic is closed weekends, 9-5 most days and only open until 7pm one day a week +- I want to go clothes shopping on a Tuesday night in the suburbs. Unless I go into the CBD my local suburban MYER closes at 5.30pm. +- I want to pick up a newspaper for my grandmother on the way home after work. My local newsagent closes at 6pm. I have to end up going to the servo to get one if I can’t make it in time. +- I want to go to the bank to sign our loan papers. The mortgage broker didn’t organise it to be done online so I had to take annual leave to go to a branch since there were no weekend appointments near us in their 3hr opening window a Saturday. +- I call the bank in the evening and they answer (great) but then for some complex enquiries we had they need the “accounts team” to help and that team only works 9-5 weekdays…. so I have to call back then. +- I go to book my car in for a service online. They then tell me it’s only “confirmed” once someone from the service team calls me (during 9-5) to lock in the service. Why? That’s their process. I have to take the call during work hours. No VW dealer is open weekends anymore for servicing so I have to embarrassingly tell my boss I can’t work the full day to drop off the car at 8am and pickup at 4.30 before they close at 5pm, missing an hour of work that I have to make up in the evening. + +I feel like Australia has to evolve from this”9-5 as the default”. I reckon a lot of businesses would do really well if they were open later. + +For some reason we have this social contract that people must always go straight home after work on a weekday and all life admin can only get done during business hours somehow between work, or weekends. Thoughts? +http://a.msn.com/00/en-us/AAWlhCJ?ocid=se + +(No paywall) + +> Whitehall Village Master Homeowners Association are trying to amend their covenants to require new buyers to live in a home or leave it vacant for six months before they can rent it out. This move, they believe, would effectively prevent investors from buying any more houses. +Like I understand that the wealthiest people on earth have a LOT of the worlds money but what would happen if all that money and the people it belonged to were to suddenly vanish one day and be removed from the global economic equation? +I currently have just over £4000 worth of debt but I work on an agency where I have the ability to work 6 night shifts a week if I want to. +At the moment I am working 3/4 each week but feel like I could manage the 6 for a short period of time. + +I get paid weekly every Thursday + +I worked 6 days last week as a trial run and received £934 after tax income which would mean if I did that on a monthly basis, I would receive £3,736 per month, less after additional tax. + +Would you sacrifice two months of hard graft to pay off debt as I am due to go to uni at the end of January and I would hate to go with loads of debt. + +I have had mixed opinions where some people say it’s too much but others say I should do it just for two months so I don’t have to work overtime when I start university. +Hello fellow astronauts, + +On the eve of this great day, I think it's important to say that it's always best to understate/undersell your winnings to friends and family. I, for instance, will only tell when asked, and then give a figure around 50/60% of the real figure. + + +**There are a multitude of reasons for doing this:** + +1. People do not understand the hard work and risk you have taken for these gains, and so will expect them for free + +2. Manipulative people will come out of the woodwork + +3. You may have taxes yet to pay (I know it sucks) + +4. You may lose all of this money yet (I am taking an investing break after this insane ride) + +5. The money is not a running tap, and is lump sums, so don't build a lifestyle around it + +6. Money is so much easier to spend than to make, please be sensible + +That's all I have to say. Have a quiet cigar or champagne when you do cash out (above $1000 of course), or come up with some other excuse as to where the money came from. + + +GME and BB to alpha centauri 🚀🚀🚀 Godspeed bois + +Edit: please also consider giving a portion of you funds to a charitable cause to make the world better in many ways +Im a 23M SWE working at Tech. I would say, my parents are definition of lower-middle class. All they got is an emergency fund and money to pay bills. They rent the same apartment I grew up in, where we have a slumlord. + +My goal is to fatFire but at the same time, I don't want to leave my parents financial state on stand-by. We live in a HCOL area and my parents have no intent in leaving. My parents are immigrants and don't think they wanna go back to their native country (mostly due to my mom). + +First thing I had in mind was buying a multi-family property and giving them a unit or gifting a down-payment on an affordable condo/townhouse to at least get them out of the rent cycle. + +They have $0 in retirement, but they did a hell of a job raising my sister and I. + +Anybody here with similar situations? They are 50 & 61 years old. Very healthy still. My younger sister is graduating with a STEM career, she'll do just fine. My motivation to fatFire is to give back and secure my family. Wondering how is the best way to do it. Any advice? + + + + +EDIT: Thank you all for your advise. This sub is always solid, glad I posted this here. To add some context, my future partner makes the same amount of money as me. We already live together and share financial goals. We plan on being DINK until we're almost 30. She wants to help my parents just as much as I do, they have been there for her too. +**EDIT: While what I have written below is true for a stock dividend, it would appear that the nature of GameStop's "stock split via stock dividend" may be handled differently. The impact it is having on** ***covered*** **short positions is more akin to a stock split, in that shorts will be required to return 4x as many shares to the lender upon closing their position.** [**You can read about it here.**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vuj4rn/in_context_dlauers_tweets_confirm_to_our_chagrin/) **I am yet to see any credible source explain away the impact the splividend will have on** ***naked*** **short positions, who do not have a lender to return shares to but have nonetheless created a long who is entitled to the dividend.** + +&#x200B; + +Every year, the IRS releases updated publications that offer people guidance on how to prepare their tax returns. Included in the IRS's guidelines for reporting investment income and expenses are instructions on how to report costs incurred when making **payments in lieu of dividends**, including STOCK DIVIDENDS. The publication I am citing in this post is [Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses (Including Capital Gains and Losses)](https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p550.pdf). + +&#x200B; + +[Highlighted for smoothness. Found on page 56.](https://preview.redd.it/kwc1yypec1a91.png?width=382&format=png&auto=webp&s=1304cd9303f3a923847f8eed0629d1816c7c4ec0) + +# IF YOU BORROW STOCK TO MAKE A SHORT SALE, YOU MAY HAVE TO REMIT TO THE LENDER PAYMENTS IN LIEU OF THE DIVIDENDS DISTRIBUTED WHILE YOU MAINTAIN YOUR SHORT POSITION... IF YOUR PAYMENT IS MADE FOR A... NONTAXABLE STOCK DISTRIBUTION, OR IF YOU BUY MORE SHARES EQUAL TO A STOCK DISTRIBUTION ISSUED ON THE BORROWED STOCK DURING YOUR SHORT POSITION, YOU HAVE A CAPITAL EXPENSE. YOU MUST ADD THE PAYMENT TO THE COST OF THE STOCK SOLD SHORT. + +That's it. That's all the DD you need to understand why heavily shorted companies can use a stock dividend to spank shorts. The Treasury Department/Internal Revenue Service can confirm that short-sellers are going to have money yoinked out of their accounts, and that money is going to be used to provide the stock dividend to the longs holding the shares that the short-sellers sold short. And yes, GameStop's recently announced stock dividend is a nontaxable stock distribution. You are going to receive the stock dividend and it will not be a taxable event, ergo nontaxable stock distribution. + +So if you encounter anyone saying otherwise, copypaste the source I provided and tell them to lick your nuts. If you do not have nuts, you are welcome to substitute "nuts" with any appendage/organ you deem appropriate under the circumstances. + +Congratulations, you fuckers. Shorts are going to foot the bill to give you more stock in the company you like, and you've damn well earned it. + +Power to the fucking players. +I was reading this book (sci-fi) and early on a character explains to another character what "money" really is. + +I'll just copy-paste, so please bear with me. TY + +--------------------------- + +“To be clear: by ‘money,’ I do not mean the physical instruments—the paper and the coins—but the unit of value that money represents. How does a given unit of money come into existence?” + +Tighe was about to answer when he realized with surprise that he did not know. + +“Do not be embarrassed. Many MBAs do not know either.” + +“The reality is that only 5 percent of all money is created by governments in the form of cash in circulation. The remaining 95 percent of money is created by commercial banks whenever they extend credit to a borrower.” + +Tighe looked at Joyce quizzically. Joyce nodded for him to pay attention. + +“For example, when a new mortgage is originated, that money does not come out of a bank vault. Instead, the money is created as a result of the loan. The bank supplies it to the borrower as a bank credit, with the borrower promising to repay the principal plus interest at a future date. This new debt is registered with a federal reserve or a central bank to the commercial bank’s account, allowing it to now loan out more money based on a multiple of that new loan—usually at a ratio of ten or more to one. So the more money the bank lends, the more it has available to lend.” + +Tighe frowned. “Hold on. How can that be?” + +“Because in the modern world money does not represent value, Mr. Tighe—money represents debt. And the more debt that is created in the world, the more money there is.” + +Tighe looked again at Joyce. + +“To be clear, it is very important that banks get back this virtual money they loan out—and with interest—or the bank will become insolvent. However, as long as loans keep getting repaid, a bank can continue creating new money in the form of credit.” + +“And so it continues, with new money being created all the time as more and more people, companies, and state and local governments borrow. But this system has a weakness . . .” + +Another line appeared on the graph. It was labeled Payments Due and began well above and not far behind the rising debt line—chasing it uphill. + +“Banks lend only the principal. However, loans must be repaid plus interest—and with long-term loans like mortgages, the total interest payments far exceed the principal itself. Unless the overall money supply keeps growing, there will never be enough money to pay back all the loans plus interest. + +This is why we see ‘growth’ as the central mantra of finance. Why consumers are urged to ever-greater consumption, why prices continue to rise—because new debt must feed ever-growing interest requirements. + +Most shocking to the layman is the fact that repaying debt destroys money. If most debts were paid off, far from helping the economy, it would increasingly paralyze it. No debt would mean there was no money. + +Recall the Great Depression, Mr. Tighe. Between 1929 and 1933 the overall US money supply was reduced by nearly a third. As bad loans were written off, there was less money overall to meet interest obligations, resulting in a cascade of failure. The Great Depression wasn’t a case of too much debt. It was a case of too little debt.” + +Tighe raised his eyebrows, bewildered. + +“Debt powers modern economies, which is why it is constantly growing. The greater the debt, the larger the money supply, the more economic activity—but also the more interest that needs to be repaid to keep the system running.” + +------------------- + +I know, I know... I'm reading fiction and I shouldn't take it too seriously, but I was just wondering if there was any basis of truth to this? + +**Thanks** +Apologies if this question is a bit too vague to be answered; though any insight into approaching an answer would be valuable to my understanding! + +In the aftermath of the GME incident, some cultural commentators have been talking about Wall Street and hedge funds in very derogatory ways. They’ve been saying that every knows that these institutions don’t serve a social function and just serve to make rich people richer, they just move numbers around and don’t make anything, etc etc. + +I’m very sceptical of things “everyone knows” because it normally seems to entail people not being able to actually explain the foundations of what everyone knows. + +However, on the other end, when people defend the stock market and hedge funds, and the complex financial instruments involved, they normally get very theoretical and talk about the most ideal cases: the stock market moves resources to productive firms who can best utilise it; we need capital to be relatively mobile and lubricated; imagine you are a farmer who will make product in future but need funding now – this is why the concept of short selling exists! Which I can appreciate, we need to simplify to explain complex processes. But equally, I feel that this simple explanations elide the truth that if you give people a way of making money, they will exploit it in every fashion imaginable for as much money as they can, whether that is in the spirit of the function or not. Does our economy actually benefit from all of these transactions (beyond the benefit of having rich bankers buying expensive watches…)? + +The question I’m getting to asking; do we know whether the majority of business or transactions on “Wall Street” or by hedge funds are serving a social utility or are this nebulous “not making anything, but keeping themselves rich”? I.e. does the criticism have any grounding? +* Never underestimate the power of a momentum move. Up or Down. Once the freight train is in motion, it will keep going much further than most have anticipated. +* Price is the only thing that matters. Adapt to it, don't fight it. +* Don't under estimate the power of desperate money managers in the fourth quarter. They need to beat their bench marks or risk losing their jobs/clients. +* Mental stops will ensure you an emotional trade. Don't use mental stops. You are either in the trade or not. Mental stops invite emotions. +* Mental stops is another way of saying : "I am not sure where to place my stop" +* Adding to a losing position is one of the best ways to end your trading career. +* The biggest winning trades normally have big volume driving them higher. +* Trading triple ETFS will deplete the account over the long term. +* "Too many eyes" on a key breakout point will most likely cause that pattern to fail first. AKA ; fuckery. Revisit the "NEW" setup after the fuckery has shaken out the majority. +* Sentiment is always more negative on bottom retests than in the FIRST low. Watch out above if the retest is successful. +* Most double bottoms come with strong MACD/RSI divergences. A powerful event if you see this. +* Be aware of stocks that take "too long to go". early indication of demand drying up. +* The best trade setups, work immediately after they trigger. They barely give you a chance of to jump on board. +* The best traders are incredibly nimble. They can be bearish but still capable to taking longs without hesitation. +* Perma bears and perma bulls eventually get washed out of the market. You have to respect a strong bull market and you have to respect a mean bear market. +* More trades does NOT equal more profits. LESS IS MORE. +* The best traders I know, keep their routine very simple. +* Price charts and volume is all you need. Most indicators are noise the majority of the time. +* Never confuse YOUR macro views with what is actually happening in the stock market. +* Economy could be in recession but if the market is rallying, you need to listen to the market. It pays better. +* Fighting the trend doesn't pay well. In general, trading with a trend, pays off much better. +* Get aggressive when you make 2-3 good trades back to back. +* Get VERY defensive when you make 2-3 bad trades. Often times traders will do the opposite. (Self destructive behavior). +* Trading on margin is the surest way to emotional decision making and eventually will wash you out of the business. +* Never underestimate the confidence building power of a tiny gain that is booked. Green on the screen helps build confidence for future trades. +* Big winning streak start with tiny wins. (The snow ball effect). +* Most losing streaks start because a "basic' rule was broken. Emotions taking over. +* IN bulls markets, if you are to err, err on the long side. NOT SHORT. Short squeezes can be powerful and painful. +* It's ok to be wrong but it's NEVER ok to "STAY WRONG". +* Good fundamental analysis and proper technical trading is a killer combination. Think CANSLIM / IBD (investors Business Daily) +* Too many bullish setups is NOT always a "good thing"/ A plethora of bullish setups normally precedes a big down day. Aka: Fuckery. +* Trading stocks is a lot like a beauty contest. What looks best, wins. +* The best technical patterns is the BULL FLAGS. It comes in many verities. Learn to spot them. +* Candle stick patterns don't mean anything WITHOUT follow thru. A Hammer or a DOJI means nothing unless it gets follow thru the next day. +* Very hard to short a market when the financial stocks(XLF) are strong. +* Trading with 'conviction' is great BUT trading with 'arrogance' is a sure way to the poor house. +* You have to understand, you cannot impose your will on the market. The market is bigger and smarter than you and you need to adapt to it. Not the other way around. +* Sentiment polls are worthless for the most part. Focus on price action. +* More market bottoms take place in October than in any other month. A simple observation that i made over the years. +* Always be aware when short interest on the NYSE starts to hit record highs. Normally means we are getting close to a major bottom. +* In December, small caps and micro cap stocks(junk stocks) come alive. many will double or triple in a few days. +* Keep your approach as simple and basic as possible. Can you explain it to a 10 year old? +* The market is master at forecasting events well ahead of time. by the time, the actual news hits, the market has already discounted it. +* Never short a market in momentum mode. +* Never short a market that is "quiet" or "choppy". +* Trading in choppy market is one of the most difficult and frustrating things to do. +* Shorting over the long run pays very poorly. Odds are heavily stacked against bears over the long run. +* Many strong forces are constantly working against shorts: PPT, short sales bans, government intervention etc. +* Every stock will go thru a period of accumulation, topping out, distribution and bottoming and a new cycle begins. Rinse, repeat..... +* Big long candles on big volume are often the start of something bigger. Scan and track those stocks. Many will end up being big winners. +* Trust your gut, if something doesn't 'feel' right, sell it. Analyze it from the sidelines (emotion free) +* Chat rooms are the best learning tool but be aware of what is noise and what is quality actionable, tradeable information. +* Be ware of trades that "fill easily". The best trades barely give you a 'good price'. +* It takes a brave soul to admit a trade is not working and sell it at a loss. The 'easy' thing to do is carry the position and "hope" it turns. +* Your 'hardest' work should be done while the market is closed. So that when the market opens, you will be prepared once your setups become active. +* Surround yourself with POSITIVE people. haters are hating for a reason. They are LOSING. pure and simple. Positive people are winning or on the right path to winning. +* Work HARD and work SMART. Both are equally important if you want to make a profession from your trades. +* The character of the person will be tested when things are going horribly bad. Will you be the phoenix to rise from the ashes? +* Don't brag, beat your chest when things are going well. Eventually mother market humbles us all. +* The harder you force trades, the more likely to lose. Allow the natural process to happen...naturally. +* Lucky breaks normally come when you are trading well. Unlucky breaks come when you are trading poorly. +* Wining and losing streaks come in cycles. Be aware which cycle YOU are currently in. Be aggressive when winning and confidence is high. +* TOPS are a long process, rarely a single day event. +* Failed breakouts and deterioration of stocks under the surface are the first warning signs. Fewer and fewer stocks left holding up the indexes. +* BOTTOMS are a process, rarely a single event. Many stocks start to bottom well ahead of the indexes. +* Always be aware of what is going on in the "MARKET OF STOCKS", not just the "stock market". Indexes will always react to what is happening to stocks under the surface. +* In bull markets, you buy dips and trade breakouts when momentum is clearly UP. In bear markets, you short weak low volume bounces and short breakdowns when momentum is clearly DOWN. +* Don't be a bull, don't be a bear: Be a predator. constantly lurking and stalking the "easy prey". +* Perma bulls and perma bulls are dangerous, lazy and arrogant. Don't take their views too seriously if you care about YOUR account. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival. +* Catching falling knives will sooner or later land you into a mine field. Big difference between buying a dip and catching a falling knife. +* Swing trading triple ETFs will give you insomnia. Is it really worth it? +* Professional traders know strength begets more strengths. Weakness begets more weakness. +* Anticipate "now" what you think will be 'popular' later. +* Most traders are never "happy" with their trades. Understand that no trade will ever be "PERFECT". +* When a stock breaks out on big volume. The first dip will normally bought up very quickly. +* If you have no solid plan(i.e. Setup, proper entry, stop loss, exit strategy, target), then why are you in the trade? +* Often times, the best trades require you to buy high and sell higher. +* Learn to be patient once in a winning position. Learn to be very impatient when in a losing or questionable position. +* Lowering a stop loss is the first sign of trouble. You are breaking the rules and emotions are starting to creep in. Careful when u see that. +* Never ever, get into a position that is "too BIG" for the account size. All it takes is a bad trades to cripple you beyond repair. +* It's ok to say " I am wrong and what do I need to do now?" +* Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting STRENGTH in a weak tape. +* Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting WEAKNESS in a strong tape. +* Boredom trades costs add up and can hurt you. Be aware of when you are simply bored and looking to trade something "JUST TO TRADE". +* You will never buy the exact bottom and you'll never exact sell the exact top: Don't beat yourself up if "you left money on the table". +* EMOTIONS is what causes most traders to break their rules. +* It's NOT the news that is most important, it's the REACTION to the news. Respect the price action. +* Use YOUR gut. If it doesn't 'feel' right. Remove it. Reassess from the sidelines(emotion free). +* Have a list of setups READY for the following day. Know the trigger prices ahead of time. Have plan: setup, position size, entry, exit, max loss and targets. +* NO plan? NO TRADE! +* 10 times out of 10, Traders who carry BIG losses wishes they had respected their "ORIGINAL" stop. So, respect the ORIGINAL STOP LOSS, ALWAYS! +* Over trading is the POISON for your trading. LESS IS MORE! +* Never chase GAP UPS. Allow the first 45-60 minutes to pass by and then see what is setting up best intra-day. +* You want to enter stocks that have the BEST bases on ALL TIME FRAMES. Weekly, daily, 60 min, 30 min, 10, 5 min. << the more time frames align, the higher the probability the trade. +* Focus on finding "GOOD BASES" :: The longer a stock bases, the more meaningful the breakout. +* Keep a balanced life. It's not all about the screens. Spend time with family, friends: They deserve more attention. +* Stay humble, stay grounded, remember where you came from and where you want to go. What is here today, can easily be gone tomorrow. Respect what you have yet shoot to achieve more. + +The beautiful tips above were written in 2011 and are still very up-to-bullish! + +Credits to Traderstewie: [https://twitter.com/traderstewie](https://twitter.com/traderstewie) + + +**TL;DR: Save for later.** +I was in the 8% of people who got this question incorrect in today's [Trivia Time](https://triviatime.app) and it's kind of blowing my mind as Singapore wasn't so impressive even just 10 years ago, and has a non-traditional political system by western standards right? + +&#x200B; + +What does this mean for economics and economys? Can anyone recommend a good, concise resource or 2 on the topic? +I sold my last company about 5 years ago and took on a consulting gig for the past 4 years. I did well at the consulting gig in 2019 and 2021, but 2022 has been rough, with my income barely exceeding my ~$250k year expenses for a mid 30's individual married with 3 boys (12, 8, and 5). 2023 will probably be rough again as well if my assumption about a recession is accurate, given my industry. + +From March 2020 COVID lows of ~$2 million, I hit a peak net worth of $10.5 million in November 2021 and steadily lost about $6 million over the last 12 months. I am now down to a net worth of $4.5 million (1/3 of my net worth is in a pre-tax retirement account). The source of the decline has mostly just been holding assets that have gone down in value, e.g., tech stocks like TSLA, AMZN, MSFT, META, etc., and crypto. In hindsight, I got lucky that the assets I happened to own did well, but I did not sell anything at the top or near the top, and now I have assets that are down anywhere from 35% - 75% from their peak. Dumb, yes I know. + +Throughout this year, I have incorrectly assumed that inflation is transitory, that the Fed would stop raising rates at some point, and that the market would recover. I have been wrong every single month, and I have another chance to be wrong on Thursday with the next CPI release. The challenge I face now is whether I finally accept the mistake I made, sell into some other lower-risk assets, or even just move to cash and then figure out my next plan. + +When I ask myself if I had this money as cash in my hands right now, would I buy the same assets I have right now, my answer is, for the most part, yes at these prices (maybe I'm a moron). The only thing I'd change is maybe selling 10% - 20%, so I had $300k - $600k in cash on hand. + +For anyone else that has had large gains from a concentrated position and then suffered a large drawdown, what did you do? How did you handle the mental anguish of letting such a life-changing amount of money slip through your fingers? Nearly every day, I think about how I should have sold last year, and it's clearly not healthy for my mind, but I can't stop fixating on how much of a mistake I made. I really can't believe it's been a year since the peak. + +If anyone has any advice that would be great. I feel really burned out and can't really see starting another company right now, and so for now, I'm still just going to do the consulting gig, but I hate it, and again, in hindsight, if I had sold, I probably had enough money not necessarily to retire but maybe to get pretty close and at the very least to quit this job. Now that door is closed, which makes me feel worse. After writing this entire thread and re-reading it perhaps I need some sort of therapist for morons but I'll just post it anyway. If you're just going to say I'm an idiot, that's fine, go ahead. It's certainly something I've thought every day for most of this year. + +Does anyone have any advice? +Last night, as a family we decided we had enough. After 3 years of escalation in China the Shanghai lockdown has just pushed us too far. For a decade we have been spending the school year here splitting our other time in US and in Europe. But we are pulling the eject cord. + +Its times like these in a family when taking the money stress out of it, helps quite a bit. + +$24k for 4 biz class seats on two days from now. Done. + +City wants to charge us $600 for the ride to the airport in their exclusive "big white van"? Check. + +City raises the price yesterday of the required at your door PCR test to $240/ person? Sure $1000 for testing just to leave, not a problem. + +Financial independence can genuinely take some stresses out of your life when they happen. +As I have started swing trading this year, I was wondering if people actually improve in their ability to predict wins or 10k+ hours down the line you just know lot of stuff without actually being able to trade profitably or predict movement? + +In any other field, with that many hours and years of practice, you can comfortably become a pro at whatever to the point you can be confident in your play but what about stock market? Does the theory of 10K+ hours translate same to stock market? + +Considering, there are many articles saying that eventually a trader just breaks even. +Newbie here. I have recently started investing. People always talk about Market Crashes. Am I going to lose all my money when market Crashes? Or it won't affect a long term investor? What happened in 2008 and depression of 1930 US? If i invest in Nippon India Nifty 50 and junior bees ETF, am i still prone to capital loss? +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +There are 4 basic reasons people came in to purchase a car. + +Current car is messy: +I sold a ton of cars to people who's current car they hated simply because it was dirty. Some elbow grease or paying for a good detail could have saved them $20k. + +Wanted new technology: +I sold $50k cars weekly because of Bluetooth capabilities. No matter how old your car is, you can add this to any existing car for around $200. Cheaper if your DIY. + +Wanted it as a status symbol: +Cars always look amazing at a dealership where they are waxed, clean, and smothered in Armor All and tire shine. In two weeks the difference between your old car and your new car will probably be negligible. The whole status symbol thing really only lasts a few weeks. Most of your peers don't know the difference between a new and much older models if they are both dirty. + +Mechanical problems: +This is the only reason I would advise anyone to purchase a car. Eventually the repairs get to the point where its more expensive to keep it than to move on. If you are buying a car for anyother reason than this... don't! + +EDIT: Reading the comments, I figured I should address some general thoughts. + +Safety isn't something I meantioned before, but probably should have. Regardless of how reliable a car is, if you are driving something with a rusted frame and 20 year old safety features its time to upgrade (assuming you can afford it). My wife and kids drive in a 5 star crash rating car with every modern safety feature. We have chose to be stingy in other places in our finances so we can afford to have a car with these types of features. Its worth a little bit of money to us to know our family is safe and to be able to see when backing out of the driveway. + +That moment when repairs out way the cost of upgrading is tricky. I have been burned several times by spending money on repairs that I thought were a good investment only to have more and more repairs pile up. I wish I knew some perfect rule for this. I don't. I have repaired cars I shouldn't have and I have gotten rid of cars that probably would have been great with minor investments. +[https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3](https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-luxury-real-estate-market-home-sales-sea-levels-underwater-2019-3) + +Assuming we could know the date a piece of real estate goes underwater (literally) how far out would that property begin losing value? 30 years? 40 years? why? +During my 20s, I began to conclude that it's important to be picky in what paths I take, personal, professional, academic or otherwise. A bad path not only sucks but is time lost on a good path. I began to realize that some people may not only make me unhappy, but some could even ruin my life. I began to choose my associations carefully, not in the pursuit of happiness but to avoid risk and catastrophe. After developing habits for these things, my life has improved dramatically, and I have much more happiness anyway. The more you live an honest, safe, and productive life, the easier it becomes to maintain these things. + +When I decided to start investing because I determined that making my savings produce something for me would contribute to that, I saw investors like Buffett basically just applied this mindset specifically to investing and developed best practices to figure this out in analysis. Don't invest in companies that won't produce you long-term earnings, just like you wouldn't want to make deep relationships with people who will ditch you. Don't buy a business with high debt or marry someone with awful credit. Pick friends who keep promises, and buy businesses that uphold contracts. + +Value investing isn't some attempt at cracking the stock market like a lot of speculators would have you think with their own methods. It's being a responsible person and applying that to investment. If "value investing is dead," then being a stable member of society is too. +I've searched here, /r/economics, and /r/badeconomics and I cannot find anyone specifically asking "is this considered good, if pop, economics?" About the closest I think I found was someone saying a part of the book was required for an undergrad class, which I know is not always an indication of quality. +I've searched here, /r/economics, and /r/badeconomics and I cannot find anyone specifically asking "is this considered good, if pop, economics?" About the closest I think I found was someone saying a part of the book was required for an undergrad class, which I know is not always an indication of quality. +Serious question. How come we aren’t addressing the problem when housing affordability is worse than it’s ever been before? + +Edit: thanks guys but keep your awards and put it towards your deposits. + +ITT there’s some concerning individuals getting a bit vile and defensive. Jeez. +I got a call from someone that said their parents had wired first month’s rent and deposit to the contact on fake ad of my rental on craigslist. They had actually been inside the house. What must have happened was on a showing day one of the people that came to see the house had unlocked a window when they were viewing my property. They must’ve come back later and unlocked the house and left it unlocked for people responding to the false ad. That’s how this man’s parents paid the wrong person. I told the defrauded party to call the police and I would cooperate with any investigation. I never heard from them or the police afterwards though. Landlords: make sure all windows and doors are locked after you show a house. +A friend just messaged me saying that his portfolio lost 10% of its value recently and that this was complete doomsday. Judging by the futures, the NQ is down 6.8% from its highs (a 1.8% gap down this morning alone). I get that, it's frustrating. + +It is also noteworthy that the sell-off hurts technology stocks in particular. But mind that they were also the largest beneficiary in recent months: + +* Nasdaq 100 is 53% above its weekly 200 EMA. +* S&P 500 is 31% above its weekly 200 EMA. +* DJIA is 19% above its weekly 200 EMA. + +Which one is going to be hurt first and foremost once a correction is underway? Of course it's going to be the most stretched industry sector. Information technology is 28% of the S&P 500, and 20% of the DJIA. + +If you buy stocks, you've got to have conviction in them. You've got to know what you are buying. Am I going to dump all my holdings just because they're "overvalued". Of course not. I'm going to hang in there with stocks going down 30% and then come back up 80%. Even if that takes another 3 years. It's the nature of the market and it is great at weeding out the less convinced. + +Volatility is the price you pay for your returns. + +If you held Apple all these years, you are sitting on a fortune now. Same goes for Amazon and many other megabrands of today. Amazon went top to bottom 60% several times in its history. You've got to have conviction in what you're buying to hold onto such kind of volatility. I also go to the grocery store to pick my favorite marmalade brand. If there's a 30% discount I'll pile up. But you cannot ever pile up if you don't have conviction in your holdings in the first place. + +So here's what I would do. Go through your portfolio name by name. Ask yourself why it's there in the first place. Start with "I own XYZ because...". Warren Buffett had also advised it in one of his interviews. If you can't tell that story, sell it off. It doesn't belong in your portfolio. Free up that cash so you can pile in when spectacular opportunities arise in future. +Don't qualify for credit or medicaid. + +Faced with the choice to either keep my teeth for $1800 a piece, or lose them forever for $200 a piece. + +Dreaming of life with a mouth full of healthy teeth and no more pain, or trouble eating food, or shame keeping me from smiling. + +MEANWHILE, the rich get richer and richer. +Probably use $1800 teeth to wipe their dog's asses. + +Wondering how long I can delay this choice and keep a full set of teeth before they end up killing me. Can they wait another 4 years until we have the chance at a president who gives a shit about people like me? + +If I was born in any other developed country, I wouldn't have to dream or wonder about these things. + +In those countries, teeth are a right. +I've heard this statement brought up in some debates I've had over taxation policy, particularly coupled as evidence for the statement "if you tax the rich, they will leave" and so I ask where this happens or happened to be the case despite reliable evidence to the contrary (such as [here](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3389850) and [here](http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/published_study/Migration_PERI_April13.pdf)). + + +In one particular discussion I had over this, the other side cited a rather sketchy documentary about Sweden that only vaguely alluded to "many people leaving the country \[of Sweden\]" due to "the high taxes" and only mentioned the founder of IKEA in particular ([this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jq3vVbdgMuQ), I wouldn't recommend watching it since it gives no reliable sources throughout and only relies on the testimony of some individuals), but this discussion got me thinking about where exactly the evidence is for this. + +So my first question is the one in the title: Are high taxation policies in Scandinavian countries such as Sweden (or just Sweden) causing rich people to leave Scandinavia, if they are leaving? If so, is there any reliable academic research that gives evidence for this? + +And my second question is: Is there any reliable academic research that gives evidence to the idea that countries that impose high taxes on the rich causes rich people to leave said country? + +I hope to not spark a flame war here nor is "taxing the rich causes them to leave" a view that I hold. I'm only asking if there's any reliable academic research that confirms these ideas despite much of the other reliable academic research on the topic suggesting the contrary. +I see a lot of people ask the question, "I'm new to this forum and want to learn how to become a day trader." so I decided to create this post. You can learn everything about day trading from YouTube videos - this is TRUE. However, I personally recommend taking a course - it will be ENTIRELY up to you if you decide to invest in a day trading course. + +This is for people who want to trade ***STOCKS*** and DOES NOT cover trading *OPTIONS*. + +Also, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! I am not a financial advisor and I do not teach how to day trade. I am simply providing how to START your journey to becoming a trader. My list provides YouTube video links but YOU should seek out your own videos as well. + +**TRADING 101: How to become a day trader** \- [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg4AH0ZZ1wA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg4AH0ZZ1wA) + +**THE BASICS - CHARTS & MARKETS** + +1. Learn the BASICS of how to understand Japanese Candlesticks - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmoOrgTP5XQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmoOrgTP5XQ) +2. Learn about VOLUME - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfJBVC0RktQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfJBVC0RktQ) +3. Learn about CHART TIME FRAMES - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSyNbCPLQ5I](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSyNbCPLQ5I) +4. Learn about MARKET CYCLES - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9exe7zkpOs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9exe7zkpOs) +5. Learn about MARKET DIRECTION - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYkgGNnEDFs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYkgGNnEDFs) + +**TRADING PATTERNS** + +This is my opinion but I believe there are two types of styles to trading stocks, YOU will need to decide if you wish to trade using **INDICATORS** or trade using only **CANDLESTICK PATTERNS** (I don't use indicators but that is MY STYLE, you may be different). Once you pick a path that suits your personality, stick with just 2 patterns before trying to learn more. There is a LOT of information out there, I'm only scratching the surface to get you started. The REST IS UP TO YOU! + +1. Indicator trading - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-770uuFILM&list=RDQMI8gWjo8cOBw&start\_radio=1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-770uuFILM&list=RDQMI8gWjo8cOBw&start_radio=1) +2. Indicator trading - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAH9EyydEsM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAH9EyydEsM) +3. Indicator (VWAP) - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0Da-1Af6tw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0Da-1Af6tw) +4. Candlestick patterns - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3PCTl5kxe0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3PCTl5kxe0) +5. Candlestick patterns: 3 bar play - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXO1EXDnCpE&t=3s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXO1EXDnCpE&t=3s) + +NOTE: DO NOT START TRADING YET!! You need to research more about this subject as I've only given you a small select few examples. ALSO - learn what is next... + +**RELATIVE STRENGTH / RELATIVE WEAKNESS** + +1. Stock trading terminology - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcvG0D-\_6T4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcvG0D-_6T4) +2. Relative Strength Trading - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Tgr4VUOoMo&t=1737s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Tgr4VUOoMo&t=1737s) +3. Using Stock Symbol SPY - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kD66RMWimo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kD66RMWimo) + +**GAPS & PREMARKET** + +1. Morning Gap Trading - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMCR6ydZ45E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMCR6ydZ45E) +2. Trading Mega Gaps - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ3XYD19W1c](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ3XYD19W1c) +3. Create Pre-Market Gap Scanner - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSVNOhYKz04](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSVNOhYKz04) + +**ORDER ENTRY** + +1. Types of order entry - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P13ssXCCBzI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P13ssXCCBzI) +2. Order types - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9YndmEoJn0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9YndmEoJn0) +3. Level 2 / Time & Sales - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iL57SPqo54](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iL57SPqo54) +4. Understanding Level 2 - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9go6bC0YJk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9go6bC0YJk) +5. Trade slippage - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC8nXAVYqRg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC8nXAVYqRg) + +**MONEY MANAGEMENT** + +1. Risk Management - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38UPItfweWo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38UPItfweWo) +2. Risk Management - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZm1ItLZsJg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZm1ItLZsJg) +3. Trade Management - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WFLG14dxfI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WFLG14dxfI) +4. Trade Management - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIXPs339Mnk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIXPs339Mnk) +5. Trading Plans - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWx30SgWbUI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWx30SgWbUI) + +**DAY TRADING TAXES** + +1. Brief talk about taxes - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAZzeQkmaSw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAZzeQkmaSw) + +**DAY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY (VERY IMPORTANT!!)** + +1. 2 Common Mistakes to Avoid - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGV\_T8G5YHg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGV_T8G5YHg) +2. 7 Tips to Master - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTQwalew81o](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTQwalew81o) +3. Become a Winning Day Trader - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtwgYh5ObHA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtwgYh5ObHA) + +**SCREENING FOR STOCKS** + +1. How to find stocks on FinViz - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2Ba94sLZN4&t=134s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2Ba94sLZN4&t=134s) +2. Scan for stocks using TOS - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0uB1fGJDqI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0uB1fGJDqI) +3. How to scan for stocks - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkykR4ct\_NM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkykR4ct_NM) + +**PAPER TRADING (DO THIS BEFORE USING REAL MONEY!!)** + +1. Stock Trading Simulators - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Zx1IfbLc8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Zx1IfbLc8) +2. Webull - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrkFl4\_AXnc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrkFl4_AXnc) +EDIT: I personally do not recommend Webull for intra-day trading. I'll gladly explain why in a chat. +3. TOS - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-NCWy\_97fk&t=36s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-NCWy_97fk&t=36s) + +Everything I posted above only scratches the surface of the learning required to become a successful day trader. There are MILLIONS of videos out there and there are REAL RISKS to trading if you do not learn the basics. Even professionals have days where they lose money. + +**BROKERAGES FOR DAY TRADING** + +Just know that intra-day trading requires a brokerage account with at least $25,000.00 in it for unlimited trades. For starting out, $0 brokerages are good for beginners. + +1. Which brokerages should you use in 2021? - [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE-Pys46pMk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UE-Pys46pMk) + +**(OPTIONAL) DAY TRADING COURSES** + +Day trading courses ARE NOT CHEAP! At least, the really good ones are not cheap. Why? Because they only want SERIOUS BUYERS and they have spent years mastering their techniques. If you go this route, expect to spend around $2,000.00 to $5,000.00 depending on how in-depth you wish to go. These are only a select few recommendations based on reviews and my own personal research. My suggestion is that you pick someone who RESONATES WITH YOU. In other words, their personality must fit yours. + +**This list is in no particular order:** + +1. BabyPips - (Yes, this is FOREX but a great way to get started in trading) +2. Bear Bull Traders +3. Bulls on Wall Street +4. Live Traders (I took this course) +5. Clay Trader + +https://www.marketlifetrading.com/users/sign_in +This is a free course if you don't want to spend money. + +I hope this helps you in your journey to GET STARTED in learning how to become a day trader. I've only laid out the basic guidelines in this post and I cannot stress how much MORE you should be doing on your own to figure out what best works for YOU! + +Thanks for reading, share if you wish, and good luck in your endeavors! +TLDR; **Melvin and gang hasn't covered shit. They've been illegally "closing out" their short positions and if we hold they will 100% get fucked. There is far more nefarious shit at play.** + +So this morning I saw the S3 and Ortex data both report significant covering of short positions for GME. This absolutely threw me for a loop because Friday morning they reported above ~120% short interest still. I could not for the life of me figure out how someone could close >50% of short positions on such a tightly held stock in ONE day with very little trading volume in the week. This got me digging around to figure out what's up. + +I started by looking into GME failed to delivers (i.e. short sellers not able to cover their position on a stock) for the first half of January and I was shocked to find that just in the first 15 days of Jan, GME had ~1.2 MILLION failed to delivers. This is before most of wsb or mainstream began buying. + +What was interesting though, is that of that ~1.2million, ~700K shares were covered in chunks throughout the two week period. I dug further back into the SEC failed to deliver reports for GME and saw that pattern extending back months. It seemed almost as if the short positions were just being kicked down the road. + +Having spent some time looking at the pattern, it's clear a large amount of failed to delivers come in, then a small chunk of coverage, then another large amount, and so on. To me this looked shady af so I looking into reasons that could cause that and discovered this article: https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf + +In it, a specific section is eerily similar to what we've experienced with GME: + +"Assuming that XYZ (e.g. GME) is a hard to borrow security (e.g. apes holding strong), and that Trader A (Melvin), or its broker-dealer, is unable (apes again) to borrow shares to make delivery on the short sale of actual shares, the short sale may result in a fail to deliver position at Trader A’s clearing firm. Rather than paying the borrowing fee on the shares to make delivery, or unwinding the position by purchasing the shares in the market, Trader A might next enter into a trade that gives the appearance of satisfying the broker-dealer’s close-out requirement, but in reality allows Trader A to maintain its short position without ever delivering on the short sale. Most often, this is done through the use of a buy-write trade, but may also be done as a married put and may incorporate the use of short term FLEX options. These trades are commonly referred to as “reset transactions,” in that they have the effect of resetting the time that the broker-dealer must purchase or borrow the stock to close-out a fail. The transactions could be designed solely to give the appearance of delivering the shares, when in reality the trader has no intention of meeting his delivery obligations. Such transactions were alleged by the Commission to be sham transactions in recent enforcement cases. Such transactions between traders or any market participants have also been found to constitute a violation of a clearing firm’s responsibility to close out a failure to deliver." + +It's almost like a play by play of what we've seen (in combination with the ladder attacks). My guess is we'll find out more when the failed to deliver report for the second half of Jan comes out on the 17th. + +I 100% think that Melvin is committing massive securities fraud. In fact, I would bet all my money on it - oh wait, I did 96 GME @ 290. + +I am now holding on principle to see these fucks fail. + +More DD: https://www.reddit.com/user/bcRIPster/comments/labq6u/follow_the_crumbs_gme_exposed_the_meta https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm + +Not a financial adviser, I eat paint chips for dinner + +EDIT: Ok, so I've been reading some comments and I wanted to clear a couple things up: + +* The failed to deliver number is reported cumulatively. So if you sum everything for the Jan time period it'd come out incorrectly as 5 million. What I'm doing is summing all the *debits* to get an aggregate view of all the failed to delivers in the time range. This process is validated and discussed in other /r/wsb posts + +* I know ETF's could have been redeemed by some MM's to gather up GME stock. However I'm not convinced there is enough GME held in ETF's to be a significant factor. Someone in the comments reported this amount to be about ~10M. We would know if a bunch of ETF's rebalanced and dumped GME. + +* My number for the Ortex short interest was incorrect, I got mixed around when I wrote this initially. The short interest reported by Ortex on Friday morning was ~80%. The 120 figure for S3 was correct. + +* Please checkout the linked DD - it goes into much more detail and covers things far better than I can. + +* Share this post and the related DD. We need to hold wall street accountable if this is true and I think that starts by spreading the word. + +* I'm going to continue to dig into this tonight / tomorrow. Look forward to a new post tomorrow evening. + + +If I take an L to 0, I take an L to 0. I don't invest what I can't lose. But you can bet your ass I'll be holding till this blows open. + +WE LIKE THE STOCK 💎🖐️ +New members of this sub need to understand to only put in money that they can afford to lose. I can see comments of single mother putting her life savings in and college kids borrowing money at a very high interest and going all in. + +This is not a joke. Losing money is not a joke. If you get a loan and buy a stock, you are at a risk. Only buy with money that you can afford to lose. Don't put your life savings or retirement corpus on this. +For people who are getting emotional and going all in against the hedge funds, the hedge funds will have a small scratch and you would be destroyed in the end. The concept of YOLO with buying stocks works only till you don't go bankrupt. + +I know this sub is now filled with a lot of new people telling you to buy the dip. Don't get emotional with money. This sub is for people who like to invest money that they can afford to lose, and not your life's savings when you are a single mother. + +I know Ill get downvoted to oblivion saying a statement like this, when the whole sub would be filled with "to the moon 🚀" +But please don't put in money you can't afford. Don't get loans and buy stocks. Money ain't coming easy and all the money you lost is earned by the hedge funds you wanted to destory in the first place. + +___ + +Edit 1 : I dint expect this post to blow up. I honestly thought it would be downvoted to oblivion. But thanks folks. And I am not paper handed, still holding to the 1 stock I bought. I'll take it to the end. +I'm not asking people to sell, just to not buy with money they can't afford to lose. + + +Hey everyone. + +Do you guys see a trend these days? Everyone wants to start a business, retire early, earn a boatload of money, and be "financially independent". + +I see YouTubers selling courses around these topics, making money by teaching how to make money. Sounds pretty scammy to me lol. These gurus are the only people who are actually becoming "millionaires" out of selling these courses. + +From all of this, what I understand and realize is that it is better to "serve" the trend than to "follow" the trend. + +There's a famous saying - "In a gold rush, sell shovels." + +Anyway, what do y'all think? + +[ ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ask/comments/zjo1sl/the_millionaire_trend/) + + +Hey everyone. + +Do you guys see a trend these days? Everyone wants to start a business, retire early, earn a boatload of money, and be "financially independent". + +I see YouTubers selling courses around these topics, making money by teaching how to make money. Sounds pretty scammy to me lol. These gurus are the only people who are actually becoming "millionaires" out of selling these courses. + +From all of this, what I understand and realize is that it is better to "serve" the trend than to "follow" the trend. + +There's a famous saying - "In a gold rush, sell shovels." + +Anyway, what do y'all think? + +[ ](https://www.reddit.com/r/ask/comments/zjo1sl/the_millionaire_trend/) +I guess we've all heard of the ProPublica report that came out detailing how billionaires instead of liquifying their assets and paying taxes on them rather just lend money from banks using their capital as collateral. + +But at some point, they need to pay that payback both the principal and the interest. And you need income to do that right? + +So how do they then pay it back without having to sell their stocks and using that money to pay it back? I get that there is a way, if not, it kinda defeats the point of doing it in the first place. + +I'm kind of an idiot, so go easy on me! + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Hope to hear back. +I consider my friend group to be pretty progressive and relatively empathetic, so I thought that I would share this with them. I've kept the details of my childhood and young adulthood pretty close to the chest, so they're unaware of my past struggles. + +This sort of information strikes a chord with me because as a child, my family faced several evictions and repossessions. I'm sure many on the forum are familiar with such events, they're no fun. However, much to my horror, my friends didn't care at all. They didn't even react. It makes me feel as if I'll have to continue to hide large parts of myself from them because they just don't have a place of sympathy for poor people and those who are habitually underpaid. I really don't have any additional words to describe it, but I was just really disappointed. + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/full-time-minimum-wage-workers-cant-afford-rent-anywhere-in-the-us.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/full-time-minimum-wage-workers-cant-afford-rent-anywhere-in-the-us.html) +Hello all, + +Let's use this thread to discuss the GameStop situation this weekend, please don't open new threads about it unless it is a unique perspective or brings very valuable information. + +Do note, posts and comments are still restricted to users with a higher Karma and account age. + +##Important information + +First, let's get some things out of the way: + +* The short squeeze has not squoze yet, short interest estimates are still extremely high, I won't post the sources and encourage you to search for it yourself. +* The gamma squeeze has not happened, it may happen Monday, it may happen gradually, it may not happen (if their positions have already been covered), it isn't necessary for anything to happen, however. +* The establishment is still lying about many things for the purpose of market manipulation (Jim Cramer, CNBC, etc.). These people are SOLD. Read Canadian news channels regarding the situation, they are much less biased! +* Google and Apple and removing negative reviews from bad brokers from their app stores, put a calendar reminder in 2-6 weeks to add your review at that time, instead of now. + +--- + +##Let's make a list of the Brokers that restricted the purchasing of specific tickers + +The worst thing that happened this week were the restrictions that our brokers put on buying specific tickers. This, obviously, affected the stock market, tanked those tickers, and significantly reduced our trust in the institutions at hand. + +Now, I'm aware the reasons for this are complicated, we know that for many of them, they were forced to restrict these tickers by their Clearing Houses (Apex being the main one), we don't exactly know why, or whether that is legal or not, however. + +**One thing for certain, the communication by the brokers and clearing houses was very, very, very bad. This, in turns, significantly harmed the public's trust in them, as well as the institutions in charge of regulating this.** + +Here is my list, please comment below and let me know which ones I've missed: + +### Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it + +* Robinhood - [Now Blocking 50 Equities](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3656437-robinhoods-50-stock-limit-list?mail_subject=bb-ino-robinhood-s-50-stock-limit-list-with-spacs-makes-mass-exodus-likelier-alpha-tactics&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-73&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha) - [CEO lying saying they have no liquidity issues, 1 day before getting a 1 billion bailout](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fs_lyGn4YA) - [Join the lawsuit against them if you were affected](https://robinhoodgamestopclassaction.com/) +* Interactive Brokers (US/CAN) - [Display visible contempt for Retail traders, wants GME to go to 17 before re-enabling trading](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM) - [Blocked Trading212, as their acting intermediary](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/) +* E-Toro - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Forced stop-losses](https://www.etoro.com/posts/0__entry__df95e7f0-1772-4ec7-a271-69b13ca229dd?utm_medium=Direct&utm_source=55714&utm_content=0&utm_serial=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_campaign=SocialSharePostcopyLink_918269&utm_term) + +### Bad Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickers + +* E-Trade - [Proof](https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/28/22254863/etrade-gamestop-amc-stock-reddit-wallstreetbets-robinhood) +* Ally - [Proof](https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-brokerages-restrict-trading-on-gamestop-amc-amid-frenetic-trading-11611849934) +* Public.com - [Proof](https://techcrunch.com/2021/01/28/webull-and-public-remove-restrictions-on-memestocks-after-citing-trade-settlement-firm-as-the-cause/) +* Merrill Edge - [Proof](https://www.streetinsider.com/Momentum+Movers/Merrill+Edge+said+to+have+put+restrictions+on+trading+in+AMC+Entertainment+%28AMC%29%2C+GameStop+%28GME%29/17879212.html) +* IG Broker - [Proof](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-uk-trading-platform-163546937.html) +* Trade Republic - [Proof](https://www.tellerreport.com/business/2021-01-29-%0A---trade-republic-and-gamestop--patronizing-investors-%0A--.BJNYXthWl_.html) +* Webull - [Admitted they were forced to by clearing firm](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-bull-ceo-explains-why-trading-was-restricted-amid-the-game-stop-market-mania-172539318.html) - [Clearing firm is Apex](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RS4JIEVyXM&feature=youtu.be) - They'll be moved to neutral once they publicly confirm Apex was sole reason the trades were restricted. +* Stake - [Proof](https://hellostake.com/au/stake-updates/understanding-trading-suspensions/) +* Trading212 - [Proof](https://inews.co.uk/news/business/gamestop-uk-trading-robinhood-trading-212-gme-stock-restricted-legal-action-850465) - [re-enabled, caused by intermediary](https://twitter.com/Trading212/status/1355074914202628098) - [Intermediary is IB](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/trading-212-blames-interactive-brokers-for-trade-execution-delay/) - [Restricted purchasing of other securities previous](https://community.trading212.com/t/gold-buying-restricted-in-larger-quantities/27987) - Based on them restricting securities before this, and countless complaints regarding other restrictions, I've put them back in the bad list. + +### Neutral Brokers - Restricted trading, publicly naming their intermediary + + +* Freetrade - [Proof, blames Barclays](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/gamestop-saga-uk-trading-app-freetrade-halts-purchases-of-us-stocks.html) - [CMO Interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V76UGdYAdcI&feature=youtu.be) - [CMO Tweets](https://twitter.com/v18n/status/1355258696885030915?s=19) +* M1 Finance - [Proof](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-webull-m1-reopen-gamestop-stock-trading-2021-1-1030019926) - [Blames Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/m1_finance/status/1354837064072753152) + +* Tastyworks - [Proof, blame Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/thetastyworks/status/1354879706991128578) +* Stash - [Proof, blamex Apex Clearing](https://twitter.com/Stash/status/1354839916761518083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1354839916761518083%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fwebull-blocks-gamestop-amc-transactions-stock-market-robinhood-1565172) +* TD Ameritrade/Canada - [Proof](https://www.cnet.com/news/reddits-amc-and-gamestop-stocks-swing-wildly-after-robinhood-td-ameritrade-restrict-trades/) - [Proof2](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/robinhood-gamestop-1.5891363) - (Margin requirements increased, Covered call and short put orders may only be placed with a broker and support times are > 2h, other trades restricted) - Neutral because they didn't restrict the purchase of stocks with cash. +* Revolut - [Proof](https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/gamestop-buyers-suffer-another-setback-as-revolut-bans-trading/) - Blames DriveWealth LCC + +### Good Brokers - Did not restrict trading + +* Most Canadian Brokers (Questrade, Qtrade, Disnat, BMO, HSBC, RBC, TD, etc.) +* Most European Brokers (Swissquote, TradeStation, Degiro) +* Fidelity +* Vanguard +* WealthSimple (CAN, US) +* Schwab (Margin requirements increased) +* You Invest (JP Morgan/Chase) +* Capital.com +* Wells Fargo - [allowed trades but banned its advisors from talking about GameStop](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wells-fargo-blocks-advisors-from-recommending-gamestop-amc-51611870929) +* Nordnet +* Citibank + +--- +### Note regarding the clearing houses + +The first step is to know why brokers restricted the trading. The second step is to investigate what happened with the clearing houses. Currently, the following clearing houses seem to have had the most issues: + +* Apex Clearing +* Barclays +* IKBR + +We don't know if these firms acted maliciously (protecting themselves before protecting the free market), or because they literally had no choice. If the former, they need to be punished. If the later, then laws need to change. EITHER WAY, something needs to change, this post is merely here to put attention on the problem, I don't claim to have the solution. + +Additionally, there needs to be open communication about this issue, currently, they are not saying anything on social media regarding this. Once they do, I'll update this post with it. + +Note: /r/ THICC_DICC_PRICC tried to explain this in some detail [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/l90an8/an_explanation_of_what_caused_the_trading_halt/). I cannot attest to the accuracy/validity of his explanation, feel free to discuss that on his post. + +--- +We might keep this information on the sidebar...forever. Please help me build this list to completion. If you are using a broker in the bad list, even if you are not invested in the tickers that have been restricted, please consider moving to a better broker. + +Thank you all for your patience, we are sorry new members are not able to comment yet, we promise you will be allowed to once this is over! + +Goal is to replace my W-2 income with passive income in the next 5 years. I’ve moved out of some underperforms lately and into SCHD. Anything I should absolute re-think? + +Roughly 80% of this is in my taxable account with the rest in Roth IRA. +Hey folks, + +I'm writing this post to share my investment history and looking for your suggestions on how can I make the effective use of whatever I built so far. (Throwaway for obv reasons) + +30yrs old, works in IT, making 2.15L/month post tax. I'm single, parents passed away, my younger sibling working. I have 0 dependencies, debts, liabilities, EMIs. Also 0 ancestral wealth, physical properties. So completely independent, free soul. + +I'm not a lavish spender, I used to save around 50k-1L every month before pandemic. Now I live with my granny in rural town, my monthly expenses are <10K. So I'm saving 2L/month. + +My investments so far (Initial guidance by my relative then on my own): + +* 11L in PPF (Investing since 2013) +* 19L in Mutual funds (SIPs in Full equity for the last 7 years) - Cur valuation 27L +* 13L in stocks (Nifty50, large cap ones) - Cur valuation 19L +* 2L in FDs +* 7L in Emergency fund/Liquid cash + +No investments outside of these. Got health, term insurances covered. + +Every month I transfer 1L to my investment account (SIP + buy stocks in dips), 50K to my expenses account (Credit card bills), let 50-70K in my salary ac. I donate 5-10K every month to charity. + +All my investments are long term >10years. Except for the marriage (not into arranged marriage, so uncertain) I don't foresee any other heavy expenses. Even for marriage I set a max budget of 3-5L. I don't have any goals attached to my investments, just building the corpus. Given my age, time frame and risk appetite, I went full equity. + +So far everything went fine, but I feel like I may not be able to invest my money shrewdly given the size. I am not a knowledgable investor, just used common sense, avoided hasty decisions, stayed put, so things worked out. But past results don't guarantee future perf right?! + +1. Should I approach any sebi regd financial advisor for a proper plan? How he/she is going to help given I myself don't have any strategic goals for now? +2. If I move to any foreign country, how much complications would arise on these investments? +3. Any other avenues I should look for as long term investments? + +Appreciate your inputs/suggestions. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: + +Since some people asked about my job profile, sharing it here. + +I work as Infra/Devops engineer in a tech startup. I was working in MNCs for the first 5 years, doing crap work. Infact I spent first 3 years installing MS office, changing mouse/keyboard in IT support. Then continuous learning, up skilling, learning new technologies led me to the startup world and things just fallen into place. I studied and did certifications like redhat linux, cloudera hadoop, AWS, which helped me to move to new companies. + +Company A (Mnc) - started with 3.1L salary in Jan 2012- left with 4.8L after 3.5 years +Company B (product comp) - started with 7L in May 2015, left with 7.5L after 1.5 yrs +Company C (Mnc) - started with 9.75 in Oct 2016, left with 9.75 after 1.5 yrs +Company D (startup) - started with 16.5L in Feb 2018, now 3+ years going strong, salary at 34.5L + ESOPs + +I'm not a developer. I manage my company's cloud infra (AWS, Google cloud), CI/CD (docker, kubernetes), good at automating mundane tasks using Python, great at soft skills like communication, leading projects etc., Earlier I used to focus more on the salary, less on skills. Now I'm more focused on my skills and salary coming on its own. Still lot to work on my tech skills, but soft skills are my asset. Hope this clarifies. +I've been stewing over this a bit. I work for a nonprofit with limited benefits and no real retirement, but they've always been good to me (is hour flexibility, etc) + +Recently, I was offered a promotion to a director position. My boss and I had a meeting and went over specifics and all seemed good. I've done this job before and would be a good move up. + +However, when we broached salary she stated there would be a "adjustment," but wouldn't give specifics. I'm pretty certain she wanted me to commit to it before I even knew the salary. + +I told her I felt like I was worth high $60s, which is approximately 10% less than than the person in that role (which I quietly found out beforehand). I mentioned that I had a similar job offer from another company for around $60k that I turned down. And we'd be saving $13k on my replacement. So all in all should be at least $10k savings. But she wants to base it on a % bump from my current much lower salary, rather than what the job actually should pay. + +She instantly quit talking, almost like she felt betrayed by even asking for a higher salary. It's been awkward around the office for the 48 hours since. + +Anyone else been in this situation? + +---- + +Edit 9pm eastern: thanks for all the comments. I've decided to put together a cover letter of sorts with supporting documentation for the salary request, including my business plan on how I would provide additional value in the role. We have an unrelated lunch tmrw so I'll let you know how it goes. No going back now. + + + + + + + + + + +My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in r/fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book. + +**No One's Crazy** + +The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. + +For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. + +And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. + +**Luck & Risk** + +The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. + +Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. + +Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. + +Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. + +Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. + +On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. + +**Never Enough** + +The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. + +Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. + +There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. + +When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. + +At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. + +**Tails, You Win** + +Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. + +At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." + +In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. + +Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. + +And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. + +When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. + +**Freedom** + +The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. + +Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. + +People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. + +*Takeaways for* r/fatFIRE: + +Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. + +If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what r/FatFire is all about. + +\--- + +I'm only half way into the [book](https://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Money-Timeless-lessons-happiness/dp/0857197681), but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/stephenou) too. + +Edit: [here's part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ixqn4u/what_rfatfire_can_learn_from_the_book_psychology/) and [here's a Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/stephenou/status/1308437490961846272) of the best snippets +The Japanese public debt to GDP ratio is set to reach \~250% of GDP after all the COVID-relief spending is done. + +This is higher than any other country on Earth. How can it stay so high? + +If Japan can stay stable with debt so high, does it mean that other countries can as well. +Yesterday I was up like 2%, and I was happy. Today I'm down like 3% and it makes me feel like a stupid idiot. I should never get excited I'm just a loser. This is why dad left. +Edit: I made [a new post describing how I trained the binary classifier (AI) used in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwrycd/how_to_train_a_binary_classifier_ai_to_detect/). + +This could be it. This could be the whole scam. + +**TLDR:** HODL. Simple as that. HODL and the shorts have no way to escape. They just writhe around in desperation as FTDs escalate, their options expire and New DTCC rulings approach. To support this belief I: + +* Built an AI to detect Deep ITM calls used to create naked shares. ***140M naked shares*** produced this way since Jan. Deep ITM call covering appears to be their *last resort of illegal desperation*. It's so easy to spot. +* Investigated married put naked shorting. At the Jan mini-squeeze put open interest went wild and aligns with *the creation of millions of naked shares with married put trades*. Put volumes appear to be sustained at higher levels to keep rolling over FTDs. ***Up to 400M naked shares created in total***. +* Looked through all 13F filings for funds with large GME positions (long/short). We have a clear idea of who is on which side of this battle and what a true idiot short position looks like (hint: Melvin). +* Gathered all Dark Pool trading data from FINRA and show massive changes in trade behaviour since Jan. Huge increases in shares traded, but each trade is of few shares. And the key players? Known short funds. Supportive evidence for *naked short trades and suppression of retail buy pressure*. + +I encourage you to read the post and take a look at the data so you can understand it for yourself. Correct me if I'm wrong somewhere. My suggestions? HODL with patience. Take a break from ticker watching. Take a walk outside. The shorts cannot escape 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +*^(Note: this is not financial advice. I am not a cat. I read gathered some data, made some figures and tried to understand them. Any number of my interpretations could be flawed and wrong. Do your own research, make your own mind up.)* + +# Introduction + +In this post I build an AI to detect suspicious Deep ITM Calls volumes used to hide FTDs. Take a look at historical options data to show recent fuckery in the options consistent with naked shorting tricks. And then compare these trends with Dark Pool trading volumes by known short funds. + +The post will be broken down into the following sections: + +1. An AI to [detect Deep ITM calls](https://preview.redd.it/4g8izd9godu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=be0dc2f3937cb050458b23c7f46b79ffd10f0f3a) used to hide FTDs +2. A recap of the major short funds and their recent positions +3. A recap of naked short selling and the married put +4. Options fuckery consistent with naked shorting and the married put +5. Dark Pool matters +6. Conclusions + +The motivation for the work was to try and test a number of predictions I made in my [first post on the naked shorting scam and the married put trade](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/). + +These are the main ideas I wanted to test or at least find additional data to support or disprove them: + +* short interest is manipulated through naked shorting +* the vast majority of options (both puts and calls) might be due to naked short selling +* short shares are 'washed' and able to be dumped on the market even during SSR +* the large number of way out of the money calls seen recently are actually part of a naked short trick +* increased trades in OTC / Dark Pools are due to naked shorting and price manipulation + +I've gathered a lot of data to better understand these questions. I believe that some of the data is now conclusive. Other areas more supportive. But the big message is that shorts have no way out and never had a chance to cover 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +# An AI to detect Deep ITM calls used to hide FTDs + +When a share is sold without being owned or borrowed (located) it is sold naked, a "naked short". This can happen as part of normal market activity by market makers and I've described [this process and how it can be abused in a previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh6lnz/the_naked_shorting_scam_update_selling_nude_like/). When this occurs the SEC has clear guidelines on how long the seller has to find a share and deliver it to the buyer. If a share is not located in time it must be reported as a Fail to Deliver (FTD). Funds that have FTDs outstanding are required to resolve the position within a given timeframe and are restricted from selling short until then. I won't go into all the details on this but point you towards [the God Tier DD](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/GME/) that covers this. + +One way that a naked short seller can 'resolve' their FTDs without actually covering is through options fuckery. Deep in-the-money (ITM) calls can be bought and exercised immediately to acquire the shares and close the FTDs. [The SEC published a paper on this ILLEAGAL practice](https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf). + +[Other great DD has been posted showing when Deep ITM volumes have been used to cover FTDs](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhv22h/the_si_is_fake_i_found_44000000_million_shorts/). + +I wanted to train a machine learning algorithm (often called an AI) that could automatically identify this illegal fuckery and point us towards what exactly has been going on with GME this last year and particularly since Jan 2021. I won't go into the full details here. I've made [a separate post describing all the details of the classifier](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwrycd/how_to_train_a_binary_classifier_ai_to_detect/). + +* End of day options data for all strike prices between Jan 1st 2020 and April 6th 2021 was collected +* I manually labelled more than 10,000 rows of data from mid-Jan to mid-Feb for suspicious volumes likely due to FTD hiding +* Labelled data was used to train different classifiers (AIs) reserving 30% of the data for testing +* The best classifier (BalancedBagging-Adaboost) has an accuracy score of 91% +* I used the model to identify all Deep ITM call options fuckery in the last year + +THE AI FOUND EVIDENCE FOR MORE THEN 140 MILLION FTDs BEING HIDDEN SINCE JANUARY!!! + +&#x200B; + +[AI detection of option volumes used to hide FTDs and FTD values since January.](https://preview.redd.it/4g8izd9godu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=be0dc2f3937cb050458b23c7f46b79ffd10f0f3a) + +The above figure shows all the suspicious Deep ITM call volumes since January as coloured bars. The colour scheme shows the different strike prices that were used for the trade. FTDs as % of float are drawn on top in the blue line. + +As FTDs were spiking and the situation became more and more unsustainable for the shorts towards the end of Jan ILLEAGAL Deep ITM options purchasing was used to naked short and cover FTDs. Smaller increases in Deep ITM volumes also occurred just before FTD spikes at the end of Feb and mid-Feb. + +On Jan 27th 25 MILLION shares were magically acquired using this trick. 140 MILLION in total since Jan 1st. + +&#x200B; + +[Running total of suspicious call volumes since Jan 1st. 140 million as of April 6th.](https://preview.redd.it/30b6h4qopdu61.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccafaf7bca99b134b09931bd5a60f11428c190ec) + +&#x200B; + +[AI detection of option volumes used to hide FTDs and GME price since January.](https://preview.redd.it/m0pd5pwwpdu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cefe0ef8b62b0ca853322c3e4c8b57205e5b641) + +Here we see that suspicious Deep ITM call volumes often precede big price increases. This suggests that this illegal trick is used as a last resort. It's so easy to see even by eye when looking at the options chains. When shorts get desperate they go to the deep calls. + +[AI detection of option volumes used to hide FTDs and Short Interest \(SI&#37;\) since January.](https://preview.redd.it/3tk1ye2jqdu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=d77b931096e9f42d111565bf550c5639070b6bca) + +We see that Short Interest (SI%) decreased massively after all of the suspicious call option activity in late Jan. As well as getting the FTDs under control the suspicious Deep ITM call volumes might have been used to close legitimately borrowed shares to hide the true SI%. + +With all the hype and attention the shorts knew they were completely fucked if they couldn't get everyone to believe it was over. But as we've seen after the lows of Feb this ride is far from over. + +&#x200B; + +[AI detection of option volumes used to hide FTDs and Short Interest \(SI&#37;\) since April 2020.](https://preview.redd.it/8mfwrbx6tdu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=ebd2e26293f59af8d438169bead8b5f46a426d51) + +Finally, if we look back over the past year very few suspicious Deep ITM call volumes were occurring. This changed in January 2021 as the FTDs started to get out of control and a huge amount of hype followed the price rises. This again makes me believe that the suspicious Deep ITM call volumes are a sign of desperation from the shorts. + +**Speculation alert:** Deep ITM calls are bought in times of desperation by the shorts when FTDs, price and/or SI% are getting out of control. At the end of Jan more than 100 million naked short shares were created this way to hide FTDs, hammer down price and hide SI%. Through Feb and up until April another 40 million naked short shares were created this way when the shorts began to lose control of their hidden positions. + +# A recap of the major short funds and their recent positions + +https://preview.redd.it/l0cx2nq85eu61.jpg?width=850&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=18900ca805bc55c1372d3d2a39d098c4c6d4a803 + +>Regulation SHO stocks with large, unsettled trades often exhibit a similar characteristic: *“short selling” hedge funds with significant put holdings in 13F filings*. +> +>MARRIED PUTS, REVERSE CONVERSIONS AND ABUSE OF THE OPTIONS MARKET MAKER EXCEPTION ON THE CHICAGO STOCK EXCHANGE +> +>John W Welborn, EconomistThe Haverford Group October 9, 2007 + +In my earlier post [The naked shorting scam revealed](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) one thing that struck me was coming across the above quote. So I've gone though all the latest 13F filings that contain GME on [whalewisdom.com](https://whalewisdom.com) to get a clearer picture of the enemy. Note: the last 13F filings were made on December 31st 2020. + +First a reminder of the known biggest GME shorting losers: + +* [Melvin Capital suffered a 49% loss in the 1st-quarter](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/melvin-capital-gamestop-losses-49-first-quarter-decline-reddit-trading-2021-4-1030292729) +* [Hedge Fund Maplelane lost 45% on Gamestop](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/hedge-fund-maplelane-is-clawing-way-back-from-gamestop-losses) + +So what does a massive short GME position look like in 13F filings? + +&#x200B; + +[GME positions from 13F filings for the biggest known losers in GME shorting](https://preview.redd.it/cv9fzhxq6eu61.png?width=1810&format=png&auto=webp&s=833bc3e0760af8047ed58f5375aaaadac19951a0) + +That's a lot of puts without any GME shares or calls! *Melvin had 6 million shares in puts* and *Maplelane close to 2 million*. Depending on where you look on whalewisdom Maplelane either has no calls or about 500k shares in calls but never any real shares. For now let's assume Maplelane is all in on puts. + +&#x200B; + +[Melvin hasn't held any GME shares since 2015.](https://preview.redd.it/rkj5le8t7eu61.png?width=1856&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b4fc0fcdc4c95204e5394846bef3eeedfa71b81) + +[Maplelane hasn't held any GME shares since 2014.](https://preview.redd.it/q71rz0hx7eu61.png?width=1845&format=png&auto=webp&s=75007fcc44dc48023aab5c5b4cd86c0301dda672) + +So big short losers have: + +* No shares in GME +* Large put positions in 13F filings (either exclusively puts or the majority of their position) + +What do other funds report for their GME positions? + +&#x200B; + +[All funds with at least 300k in either shares, calls or puts. Short positions are on the left and long positions on the right chart.](https://preview.redd.it/506p312y8eu61.png?width=5350&format=png&auto=webp&s=98c7bad44cb276a92b8d9c87d7765e0327b72806) + +Here we see many of the known offenders. A bunch of short funds with majority puts and sometimes a smaller number of call options. Melvin takes the biggest idiot prize with 6 million shares in puts and nothing else. Here are the main offenders based on their end of 2020 filings: + +* Melvin capital management lp +* Susquehanna international group llp +* Ubs group ag +* Group one trading l.p. +* Citadel advisors llc +* Hap trading llc +* Citigroup inc +* Wolverine trading llc +* Maplelane capital llc +* Jane street group llc + +Some of these market participants operate market making and hedge fund activities. It is difficult to completely separate normal versus abusive practices. That being said these are the likely candidates and a good place for future DD digging. + +*Wolverine trading llc* had an almost identical position to *Maplelane capital llc* who reported massive losses. *Ubs group ag* is an interesting one with almost 4 million shares in puts and nothing else. Is UBS a final boss?? *Hap trading llc* & *Citigroup inc* each had almost 2 million shares in puts and not much else. *Group one trading l.p.*, *Shitadel advisors llc*, *Susquehanna international group llp* & *Jane street group llc* feature prominently too. + +Let me remind you of the earlier quote: + +>Regulation SHO stocks with large, unsettled trades often exhibit a similar characteristic: “short selling” hedge funds with significant put holdings in 13F filings. + +Many of these funds exhibit this characteristic and around the end of December and early Jan SI% and FTDs were through the roof. This looks like fuckery. + +Next 13F filing updates should arrive by May 17th. This will be big. + +**Speculation alert:** Any fund holding predominantly or exclusively a put position is short and likely engaged in illegal married-put naked shorting. The biggest know idiots Melvin and Maplelane have positions that look similar to other large funds (Wolverine, UBS etc.) suggesting we may have a clearer idea of who is up against us. And facing bankruptcy. + +# A recap of naked short selling and the married put + +The reason that large put positions in 13F filings is suspicious is because those puts are likely to be the by-product of naked shorting. For a detailed description of how options trading can be used to sell naked shares you can [take a look at this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgj0j1/the_naked_shorting_scam_revealed_lending_of/) and [the follow-up post](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mh6lnz/the_naked_shorting_scam_update_selling_nude_like/). Here is a brief description: + +>Being a 'bone-fide' market maker grants you special privileges. One big privilege is to sell shares without needing to fulfil the 'locate' requirement. In other words, 'bone-fide' market makers are allowed to naked short sell, but they must find the shares after a certain amount of time. +> +>What is a 'bone-fide' market maker? No one really know. The SEC did a shitty job defining it so many brokers can likely pretend they deserve the title. +> +>How can the 'bone-fide' market maker privileges be abused? Well... +> +>If a hedge-fund wants to short sell but no shares are available to borrow, or they're too expensive, the hedge-fund can go to their 'bone-fide' market maker friend and follow this simple *'married put'* recipe: +> +>1 Buy puts from the market maker covering the number of desired shares. +> +>2 Buy shares from the market maker at the same time. The 'bone-fide' market maker can sell the shares naked as he remains net neutral on the trade. +> +>3 Make the 'bone-fide' market maker happy by paying a tasty premium for the puts. +> +>4 Dump the bought shares on the market to suppress prices and remain net short on the puts! +> +>For an extra spicy recipe that is harder to detect add the following step before step 4: +> +>3b Sell way way out of the money call options equal to the bought shares that you never expect to be worth anything (800c calls anyone?) to the 'bone-fide' market maker for a small premium. The trade now looks like an innocent [reverse conversion](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reverseconversion.asp). + +# Options fuckery consistent with naked shorting and the married put + +So, if massive naked short selling via the married put trade has been used to cover up FTDs and SI% since Jan we should see some anomalies in the options chain. Let's take a look. + +&#x200B; + +[Total open interest for puts & calls as well as FTDs & SI&#37; since Jan 2020.](https://preview.redd.it/is3e6vn3heu61.png?width=4500&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ced765a93d48245b0a8b9a6d2394280b42289e5) + +HOLY FUCK THATS A MASSIVE JUMP IN OPEN PUT INTEREST!! And it's been sustained since the end of Jan. for the last year open interest in puts and calls remained very similar. At the end of Jan put open interest increased by more than 300% and completely disconnected from call interest. Immediately after this change FTDs and SI% dropped massively. + +&#x200B; + +[Cumulative open interest for puts & calls since Jan 2020.](https://preview.redd.it/cdh81j9yheu61.png?width=3808&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc589f91495376dc303dbbff8cdec756fa62f712) + +If we look at the cumulative open interest over time we see the number of newly opened put contracts has remained steady throughout Feb and into early April. The rate at which these contracts are being bought is far greater than anything seen in 2020. + +**Speculation alert:** The huge jump in open put interest could've provided up to 150 MILLION naked short shares to fight the January price spike and hide FTDs and SI%. When combined with certain brokers restricting retail buying, media FUD, January paper hands etc. their ploy appeared quite successful. Since pushing the price back to 40$ in Feb the constant and significant opening of new put contracts has been used to roll over the FTDs and do their best to keep their naked asses covered. Since Jan up to 400 MILLION naked short shares could've been used to hide FTDs and manipulate the price. + +# Dark Pool matters + +Previously I speculated that Dark Pools could be used to facilitate the naked shorting trades. This hypothesis can be supported with data by looking at the [OTC data made available by FINRA](https://otctransparency.finra.org/otctransparency/OtcDownload). + +Getting this data was a pain in the ass but I now have all Dark Pool volume data for GME since Nov 2020. This includes [Alternative Trading System (ATS)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alternative-trading-system.asp) and [Over-the-Counter (OTC)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/otc.asp) volume data. + +&#x200B; + +[Dark Pool trade data for OTC and ATS trade pool.](https://preview.redd.it/ulkgw6e0qhu61.png?width=3076&format=png&auto=webp&s=6447fbe7e5e730f9d90d0525d7db539fff3f4b97) + +Dark Pool activity ramped up massively at the start of Jan, particularly in the OTC pool. Towards the end of Jan as prices spiked during the mini-squeeze the total number of trades more than quadrupled and the average trade size dropped to around 50 shares per trade, remaining there ever since. + +Re-routing of order flow anyone? Short ladder attacks in small share batches anyone? + +If OTC trading was being used to suppress retail buy pressure we'd probably expect to find the worst of all the brokers \**Robinhood*\* involved in the trading pool. + +&#x200B; + +[Total shares trades by firm for OTC and ATS pools since Jan. Note: using Log10 scale for comparison. Citadel actually traded 400M shares OTC!!!](https://preview.redd.it/83iw1c15rhu61.png?width=3600&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7db9804c36d863a17be7d7bc8d0ce9f6a1c1586) + +Well what a surprise. Citadel trading 400M dark pool shares. Robinhood trading 2 million shares on OTC. The average trade size was ≈1 share which is fucking weird. Interactive Brokers only traded 9559 shares OTC but they made 9559 trades. Exactly 1 share per trade. Fucking weird. + +Looking at the OTC market participant names, does anything look familiar? Oh yeah! Some of our market participants with massive puts in 13F filings also love to trade OTC!! + +* CITADEL SECURITIES LLC +* JANE STREET CAPITAL, LLC +* UBS SECURITIES LLC +* WOLVERINE SECURITIES, LLC, + +And the [worst offenders for Robinhood payment for order flow (PFOF)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/29/robinhood-citadel-gamestop-reddit/): + +* CITADEL SECURITIES LLC +* VIRTU AMERICAS LLC +* G1 EXECUTION SERVICES, LLC +* JANE STREET CAPITAL, LLC