diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_7.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_7.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_7.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +3) Never, ever buy or sell on emotion. As a rule, if you feel like you *have* to buy or sell right away, then you don't. Sure, you might luck out once or twice doing so, but this is called gambling, not trading. Being impulsive will ultimately screw you over. + +Our brains are running on millennia old legacy software designed to run away from threats e.g., panic sell, to follow the herd e.g., fomo buy, and in general to survive, *not* to be rational. When big dollar signs are flashing around, our lizard brains think it's life or death and all reason goes out the window. This is why the vast majority of traders, even professionals, lose money. + +Of course in a bull market everyone is a genius. So it's easy to kid yourself, but you're probably not a great trader. I know I'm not. I've read books on trading, and I'm not a total idiot, but the fact is I would be sitting on a lot more Ether right now if I had just bought and held rather than getting all fancy. + +There are a few folks who have zen-like discipline or years of experience, but for the rest of us, short-term trading is a losing game. That said, you can treat a small portion of your holdings as play money that you daytrade. Just don't be surprised if it's gone next week. + +4) Don't be a maximalist. God knows I was when I first arrived here. I thought Bitcoin was Myspace and Ethereum was Facebook. I came to realize Bitcoin and Ethereum are not competitors; they are trying to do different things. The world needs both gold and oil. + +5) This may sound blasphemous, but don't be absolutist about HODL-ing. For most, I think it's wise to take some profits as it goes up by selling a small to moderate portion of your holdings. Then, if/when it majorly corrects you won't freak out and panic sell. Instead, you can buy some back at a lower price. And if it doesn't correct, you'll still walk away with some profit and peace of mind. + +Now, if you are very patient and don't need to take profits it's fine to 100% HODL if you are truly able to stick with it. Just be honest with yourself. There are a lot of fair-weather 'hodlers' here who hit the sell button whenever there's a major pullback. It's better, not to mention a hell of a lot easier to sell when it's pumping up than when it's plummeting. + +6) It's human nature to never be satisfied. No matter how low you bought, you'll wish you had bought lower or bought more. Or you're gonna kick yourself for not selling at a peak. Remember, most people in this world still have no idea what Ethereum is and even if they do, they do not see its potential like you and me. We're early to the party. + +7) Keep your life in balance. This is more important than all the above combined. Sure, it's fine to go through a phase where this consumes your life, but if you spend all day and night staring at red and green on GDAX your health and happiness will suffer. Trust me, I've been there. + +Trading is already addictive but throw in a 24/7 market that never sleeps with bewildering volatility and you have the perfect recipe for sleep deprivation, anxiety, and manic ups and downs. + +If you're overly obsessed with checking prices, try either setting ground rules (what I do is that I only check prices between 10am and 10pm) or step away completely for a few days or a week. I've done this a few times and I always return to the markets with renewed energy and perspective. + +Money is important but once you have enough to get by, it's far less so than friends, family, health, and finding meaningful things to do in life. Remember guys, love over lambos, balance over Binance, and bros over blockfolios.. okay that last one was a stretch.. + +Finally, it's been said before, but that's because it's the truth: the joy is in the journey. Everything in this world is temporary. Whether Ethereum faces some existential threat and gets wiped out tomorrow or goes on to revolutionize human civilization for centuries to come, someday something else will come along and replace it. + +Likewise, your stash may someday be worth zero or a million. But either way you will have won the bigger game in town if you enjoyed the ride and learned a few things along the way. + +Stay safe, stay hungry, and enjoy the ride! + +*Note: Thank you guys for all the replies and encouragement, it means a lot. I had no idea this post would blow up like this. In hindsight, I wish I had titled this post something different and put less emphasis on the quitting job part because that's not what this post is really about. I realized from the responses that the post gives the impression that I am retiring for the rest of my life and intend to never work again. This is definitely not the case! Ethereum simply expedited me getting out of a job situation that I wanted out on anyway and has afforded me some more flexibility and freedom in the short to medium term. While I'm taking a bit of the break from the grind right now, I'll be pursuing work a bit down the line both for financial reasons and because it's part of a meaningful life* +A 2-5% drop today and everyone is questioning their life choice? It’s nothing in the long run.. just last year there was a 45% from mid feb to mid mars... nobody was there then? And nobody recovered from it? +Italian guy, single, early 30’s, currently living in Milan and earning 30k Gross. + +I have 3 job offers + +Frankfurt 50k € gross +Luxembourg 60k € gross +Basel 87k CHF gross + +Germany has more tax but is cheaper than Lux/ Swiss + +Lux has a good salary and low tax + +Swiss is the highest but most expensive + +I want to live alone. + +In which city will I have more buying power. + +Which offer is the best? +Look. There is literally no need for anyone to post their "gains" with posts like "I'M UP 50K, 100K, 200K AND IM NOT SELLING!!!!". It's almost as a way to bypass the "no gain post" rule to me. + +We DO NOT need to know how much gains you have in your account. It honestly feels like the FUD a couple of weeks ago where shills were posing as XX,XXX or X,XXX holder to create a divide between the apes. + +JUST SIMPLY BUY AND HODL. 💎🙌🦍🚀 + +Edit: For those that are wondering where are these "gain posts" I am talking about? I made this post immediately after seeing a highly upvoted post titled something like "wife telling me to sell after up 36k", checking the comments I noticed multiple comments talking about the same thing "I'm up 100k", "up 240k as a college student.". I knew instantly this wasn't right and here's this post to bring attention to this issue. + +&#x200B; + +Furthermore, I have never been so happy and honoured to be a fellow ape 🦍, I really mean it. Therefore, I wish for everyone to stay vigilant and help each other by downvoting and reporting any *potential FUD* before it has the chance to spread. 🚀🚀🚀 + + +Not financial advice, just a smooth brained ape here who happens to love the stock. +TL;DR: Recorded call with former Citadel client reveals Citadel has been underperforming and may have been cooking the books on their finances. Further evidence shows that Ken Griffin was desperate to hold onto his client's funds, and was ferocious towards anyone that left him. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +If you recall in my [Burning Cash](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0zrni/burning_cash/) DD post, I explained how Citadel has just a handful of clients that provide them with the necessary capital to operate. + +§1 of my "Burning Cash" DD: "Remember that each of these 19 clients is a very wealthy individual (we're talking aristocrat wealth; someone with a net worth in the billions, or at least $100 million range)." The number of Citadel's clients has dropped to 16 now, as of March 31, 2022, which can be seen on Item 5.D.(f), which is located on page 28 of Citadel's [ADV](https://reports.adviserinfo.sec.gov/reports/ADV/148826/PDF/148826.pdf). + +I should point of that finding out who are these clients (whether former or current) of Citadel is nearly impossible. But, a few days ago I was tipped off by an Ape "u/ Marijuana\_Miler", that noticed an interviewee on "The Tim Ferriss Show", talk briefly about how he's a former client of Citadel. + +[Transcripts from "The Tim Ferriss Show":](https://tim.blog/2022/05/28/ed-thorp-transcript/) + +https://preview.redd.it/pfs2m9aurn391.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=b817b9f2f2ecc434c6e7742471573812908ed0cb + +https://preview.redd.it/we8n7nwvrn391.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=61362c9e52b372d7ced51b13f9dcf65dee311dd4 + +\[Note: When someone is talking in an open interview (e.g. Tim Ferriss Show), they're usually more careful about the things they say, so you might not be able to get the full picture of what was going on behind-the-scenes. I've personally been interviewed by talk shows before, and the information I'd provide in interviews was very limited in scope to what was actually going on, and I made sure if I talked about someone, that I would be respectful and not try not to defame anyone's character. That's usually how it goes, so I knew that if Thorp had relations with Ken Griffin and Citadel, there's was very likely much more going on not provided in that interview with the Tim Ferriss Show, which is why I wanted to dig deeper. And, as you'll see in the recordings, Thorp's views on Ken Griffin and Citadel are drastically different than what was displayed in the interview.\] + +Now, who is Edward O. Thorp (PhD)? + +He's an illustrious American mathematician, hedge fund manager, author, and blackjack researcher. He has a net worth of $800 million, which is the type of wealthy client (of the 16 Citadel clients) I was talking about. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Here's a biographical [synopsis](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/wall-street/edward-thorp-net-worth/) of Edward Thorp: + +"Edward Thorp is an American mathematics professor, author, hedge fund manager and blackjack player who has a net worth of $800 million dollars. Edward Thorp was born August 14, 1932 in Chicago, Illinois. He is known as the "father of the wearable computer" since inventing the world's first wearable computer in 1961. He was a pioneer in modern applications of probability theory, including the harnessing of very small correlations for reliable financial gain. He is the author of Beat the Dealer (1962), the first book to mathematically prove that the house advantage in blackjack could be overcome by counting cards. He also developed and applied effective hedge fund techniques in the financial markets. Thorp received his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1958 and worked at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT 1959-61). + +\[...\] + +After his success in casino games, Thorp moved to Wall Street, where he used in full measure his mathematical genius to foresee the price anomalies and with his partner J. Regan developed simple and efficient methods of earning money on stock. His methods are shown brilliantly in his book Beat the Market (1967). Edward O. Thorp is a legendary blackjack player and thinker, and is one of the 7 people elected to be original members of Blackjack Hall of Fame." + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +When I found out that Edward Thorp was one of Citadel's clients, I felt really lucky, because I just so happen to have certain connections that I could leverage to get me in contact with Dr. Thorp. + +I was able to reach out to him, and had a chat with him on the phone regarding Ken Griffin and Citadel. Here are the recordings. + +\*I know mods were previously concerned of any potential legal ramifications for posting this, but I can assure you all that I was legally allowed to record this phone call.\* + +\[I should note before you listen to these recordings, that I edited out my voice. So, you'll only be hearing the voice of Edward Thorp.\] + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +\-My first question: "When did you leave Citadel?" + +https://reddit.com/link/v4wxkb/video/xnnw31n6sn391/player + +Dr. Thorp answers that he exited in 2020, before the January 2021 run up and all the craziness that transpired afterwards. This is important to note. + +\-I later asked him "why did you decide to leave Citadel?" And "tell me about the stipulations in your contract with Citadel. How hard was it to withdraw your money?" + +https://reddit.com/link/v4wxkb/video/bsfmxd1asn391/player + +Dr. Thorp's testimony here is a revelation that underscores the many shady practices of Citadel. We'll be revisiting it later on, but to succinctly explain: + +Citadel was underperforming, their returns were bad (not nearly as good as Citadel/MSM made them out to be to the public), and that was pre-2021. If Citadel's real returns were terrible pre-2021, they must be absolutely awful this year as well as last, as they've only been burning through their cash trying to keep the basket stocks down. + +We also learn that it's extremely hard for Citadel clients to leave the hedge fund, and that the process takes several years to exit. That would explain why the number of clients Citadel didn't drop from 19 to a significantly less number (such as 10 or less), but instead dropped to 16. I imagine the clients with several billions may have had more leeway/stipulations in their contract; hence, they would've been able to exit quicker (explaining the increase in clients exiting 2021/2022), but for most of the clients, it wasn't going to be as easy. Though, they're most likely actively withdrawing, which is why Citadel needed to cut withdrawal limits and get money from Sequoia. + +\-I asked Thorp about his history with Ken Griffin: + +https://reddit.com/link/v4wxkb/video/etr43arbsn391/player + +"I just rolled out along until they stopped performing well, and I got out as quickly as I could"-Edward Thorp, Former Citadel Client. + +I really like this quote. Should be part of an ad for Citadel, haha. + +\-Discussion about Citadel's withdrawal penalties: + +https://reddit.com/link/v4wxkb/video/58hzumodsn391/player + +"I said to myself, 'if they're so desperate to keep your capital, it means they probably see some risks that we don't know about'". + +\-Discussion about how Ken Griffin operates Citadel: + +https://reddit.com/link/v4wxkb/video/dyvsiy6fsn391/player + +"He has very tight control. He's in charge; he collects most of the money. And he goes after people with ferocity if they leave him. He thinks they'll take any secrets from his organization." + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +There was more in my discussions with Edward Thorp that I would've liked to share, but I was specifically entrusted to keep particular things he said solely between me and him. I'm choosing to do the right thing and honor his request. There's already plenty of information that I've shared here that he's provided, which would make for very strong evidence in the DOJ investigation into Citadel. + +I've also sent this info to a buddy of mine in the government that can relay it to the right people in the DOJ, to make sure this information is included in the probe into Citadel. + +I think that the DOJ would be very interested in learning further about how Ken Griffin "goes after people with ferocity if they leave him". Any sort of coercion or bribery can be prosecuted under the RICO Act. + +Also, I'd like to go back to recording #2. + +**We have corroborating evidence from Thorp that Citadel was producing returns that were virtually correlated with the stock market (i.e. S&P 500). And Citadel agreed with Thorp's statistical analysis when he presented it to them.** + +Ok, so example: + +Market goes up 3% **⇒** Citadel makes positive returns correlated with 3% market rise. + +Market goes down 3% **⇒** Citadel makes negative returns correlated with 3% market drop. + +Sound easy enough? Ok...so why has Citadel been reporting that they're outperforming the market? + +Why do we have MSM articles like this around (this has been going on for years, mind you): + +[Exhibit A.](https://preview.redd.it/qap8ndnyrn391.png?width=925&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbd6c71b09b098c76be0b3c0cb085faacc777886) + +[Exhibit B.](https://preview.redd.it/bk8gp0yzrn391.png?width=1023&format=png&auto=webp&s=29965b1e9c019bc2f564b17adcb6b0fdac7c0df0) + +These publicly reported numbers are not consistent with what Thorp stated. + +Take, for example, this article published on September 25, 2020: + +https://preview.redd.it/cjawdj61sn391.png?width=867&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5b76d5cbfe007c6212f1031d593cd7ec0299de6 + +"Citadel Securities LLC doubled its profits during the first half of 2020, Bloomberg News reported Sept. 25. + +Let's do some math on this, shall we? + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +January 1, 2020 S&P 500 closing price: 3,278.2 + +July 1, 2020 S&P 500 closing price: 3,207.62 + +\[[source](https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month)\] + +Calculations: + +\[(3,207.62/3,278.2)100\] ≈ 97.85 + +⇒ 97.85-100 ≈ **-2.15%** + +**Citadel should've lost 2.15% from January 1, 2020 - July 1, 2020.** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Even taking into account any fees being collected, there's no way Citadel would've been able to double its profits during the first half of 2020. It's impossible. + +If we go by Thorp's statistical analysis (which Citadel agreed with), it's clear that Citadel is artificially inflating their positions. This could be for a variety of reasons: to look good to prospective clients, outside competitors, take out loans, gain leverage, etc. + +This is what happened in the case of Bill Hwang, owner of the hedge fund Archegos. + +Hwang was indicted by the DOJ on Wednesday, April 27, 2022 for racketeering & fraud offenses related to a market manipulation scheme, of which include artificially inflating their portfolio from $1.5 billion to $35 billion. + +[You can read the DOJ press release here.](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/four-charged-connection-multibillion-dollar-collapse-archegos-capital-management) + +This isn't new. We now have a strong case that Archegos wasn't the only one artificially inflating their portfolio, and that Citadel has been likely doing something similar. + +Considering that Hwang was indicted and may virtually face a life sentence in prison, it wouldn't be a stretch to suggest that Ken Griffin could also face a life sentence is prison as well for artificially inflating his portfolio, if he were to be indicted by the DOJ as well. Every count for racketeering conspiracy carries a maximum potential sentence of 20 years. A couple counts for charges of racketeering conspiracy could already be enough to put Griffin in prison for the rest of his life. + +Citadel is under the DOJ probe, so hopefully the DOJ will be taking a closer look at these inconsistencies, ascertain whether or not Citadel has been cooking the books, and finally begin to potentially take action, such as making indictments, as they did with Archegos. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Final note: do NOT harass Edward Thorp. I repeat: do NOT harass him! This is primarily about Ken Griffin & Citadel. Edward Thorp is a good person, and was very helpful in this case. If it weren't for his testimony, none of this would've been possible. Don't make me regret sharing this information on SuperStonk and not solely with the DOJ. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ +So I posted this in r/GME, b/c it got removed here after mentioning a different ticker, so I amended it, and hopefully it will stick this time.... + +So, I saw this bid come in at the end of the day - + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/yrcd23afh1h71.png?width=530&format=png&auto=webp&s=87fdbfc2de354dde4761798e8bcfdcf3eff24b4f + +2500 shares for ... $1.10 - One dollar and ten fucking cents! The Order came from MEMX. MEMX? I did a bit of digging and here are a few screenshots of what I found... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6ta5o45hh1h71.png?width=2630&format=png&auto=webp&s=710cabda9beb9447fce2ac178376543d44cd51dd + +https://preview.redd.it/17qcz25hh1h71.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=aaf4aecae651096075a23cfe7132f4129f57eaf6 + +Members Only Trading for Institutions. Why would they use MEMX?... Well Here is a list of Codes, and their corresponding transaction fees. They are all pretty fucking sketchy but code "Z" is the one I found to be most disturbing - "Routed To Another Market , Removed Liquidity" ... Fucking scumbags.... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/aoncc5jih1h71.png?width=2526&format=png&auto=webp&s=d23d551d530b94b0a887e997b717e07efd84b229 + +Insane. + +So who funds this operation? Well apparently everyone.... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ofyc7k9kh1h71.png?width=2046&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70caf2c004aa5a33a8e834d123f72c4ff8996ce + +[Literally....](https://preview.redd.it/lvizuk9kh1h71.png?width=2612&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e69a51ec583cf741b147d8d787d1bf87bebd598) + +Do this infuriate you? It Should.... + +Another interesting tidbit I came across today is PYTH. ( [https://pyth.network/markets/#GME/USD](https://pyth.network/markets/#GME/USD) ) A network that tracks trades in real time using blockchain encryption - Check out the price for GME.... + +[Credit ST user SKEEBO](https://preview.redd.it/wud758aml1h71.png?width=2514&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2581c85b1c520dc669f869ef88ea8e0adf59cd6) + +&#x200B; + +WOAH! - 2500$ and has traded for as much as $5000 WTF?! + +Guys - Check out the month view on the PYTH link. Also keep a close eye on it day in and day out... It will be able to tell us in real time when the Darkpool price spikes. + +It is spiking at times of critical mass. When the stock is about to make a major move,For Instance - today when we breached the heavy resistance level of 164, very briefly , and on Monday, darkpool prices spikes well into the thousands - They buy at those prices, and then re route the orders - probably going through MEMX (im sure there are others, but MEMX seems to be the Big One) until it is supressed. CLEARLY someone is paying BIG BUX for those shares at time of critical mass - presumably to buy them in the dark pools for 2-5K a piece and then Bid them for 1.10$ on the NYSE. to supress liftoff. + +&#x200B; + +But Wait, theres more... + +Last but not least - today at 2:10 PM CST there were attacks on our stock and another that shall not be named....here is a comparison of The MOO-VEY Stock & GME price action just as the MEMX bid came through - corresponds perfectly with a coordinated ladder attack + +&#x200B; + +[Credit a different ST User who I cant find ATM, but will update later when I do.](https://preview.redd.it/u8xpnfrji1h71.png?width=1890&format=png&auto=webp&s=072ec6cc43310b3edfbcd12e22f4120280e23b69) + +&#x200B; + +ALSO.... + +PYTH is VERY LEGIT and I think it can be a very valuable tool moving forward. + +I HOPE I WAS ABLE TO PROVIDE YOU GOOD PEOPLE WITH GOOD INFO. I love you retards. Seriously I love you crayon eating, banana up the ass taking , wife's boyfriend having , drooling on yourself asses to the moon and back. + +Be good to each other, retards. BUY SHARES STAY AWAY FROM WEEKLIES - I have to go tend to the garden because my wife is in the house getting Plowed by her boyfriend + +\- im not even allowed to watch :( - and fuck me, these tomatoes won't grow themselves! + +WHAT THE FUCK , KENNY?! + +Cheers? + +&#x200B; + +EDIT - Here is an interesting article on MEMX that was shared w/ me by u/deenatt \- + +[https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/wall-street-plans-new-stock-exchange-memx-51546890754](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/wall-street-plans-new-stock-exchange-memx-51546890754) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT #2 - IN REGARDS TO PYTH - I guess in my haste to get this info out, I did not address the disclaimer "The data is published on a testnet / devnet site and are experimental". Although, In my humble and speculative opinion, It is just that a disclaimer - similar maybe to "This is not financial advice. I'm not a financial analyst"? Again, I am speculating here. Furthermore, though .... + +u/[**Nice-Violinist-6395**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nice-Violinist-6395/) **-** who is much more informed than I, as pertaining to coding, programming & blockchain tech, and did QUITE a bit more research- this is what [**Nice-Violinist-6395**](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nice-Violinist-6395/) **discovered....** + +&#x200B; + +\*\*"\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I remember when all this was taking off after January, a random user with a since-deleted account — who claimed to work for a big SHF and would have been very sketchy except for the specific, accurate details he provided — said something along the lines of “you guys are starting to figure it out. But I promise you this: **you haven’t even found 5% of the ways we’re cheating yet.**” + +And what have we discovered since that time? Married puts. Deep ITM calls. The FTD cycle. Dark Pools. Algorithmic patterns. So much more — + +And today, MEMX and PYTH. + +The big picture question, as it’s always been, is “*do you believe the hedge funds have somehow gotten far less corrupt since 2008, or are they as corrupt as ever, just with far more tools at their disposal?*” + +Nevertheless, brick by brick, piece by piece, we’re figuring it out. + +.......... + +For the first time, there will be a comprehensive, data-driven analysis and summary of all the ways the hedgies are cheating, and all the f\*\*\*\*\*-up things they’ve been doing to steal from regular people for a decade. + +....... + +This will change Wall Street forever. + +So OP? Please accept my thanks, on behalf of the above commenter and all of Superstonk. + +This is an indescribably important piece of the puzzle. + +EDIT: holy shit, I checked and it it corresponds *exactly.* To the minute. Before each price drop — what we’ve been calling a “short ladder attack” — the price spikes anywhere from $600 to $800. *Literally the minute* the price has fallen down to a “safe” level, the dark pool price sinks back to $162. You can see for yourself, check out what happens between 11:29 and 11:44. This is insane. Probably the single best piece of DD to come out in recent memory. + +EDIT 2: I’m down the rabbit hole now. I looked up the CEO of MEMX: Jonathan Kellner, who was formerly the CEO of [Instinet](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instinet), where he worked for 11 years. Instinet, by the way, was founded in 1969, where it helped pioneer the art of computerized trading — **and also LITERALLY CREATED THE DARK POOL.** + +Seriously. Google “who created the dark pool” and see for yourself. + +Guys, I can’t emphasize this enough. **THIS IS A FUCKING HUGE DISCOVERY.** + +Keep. Digging." \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* + +&#x200B; + +Dont shoot the messenger here, i don't think i'm grasping at straws - but at the same time would like to once again reiterate that this PYTH data is technically SPECULATION until someone w a few more wrinkles can confirm or deny. + +&#x200B; + +I'm not trying to become a reddit superstar or anything, i just happened to notice some things that didn't quite add up, and decided to go digging - and this was the result. I am in no way attempting to cause a rift, divide, or spread misinformation. This is THE information, as pertains to the situation in which I uncovered. + +Thanks for all the awards - but STOP GIVING ME THEM AND BUY MORE STOCK - only if you want to, however, as i am NOT a financial advisor, and none of this is to be interpreted as financial advice. I don't even know how to read or do numbers. Mostly just drool on myself while gnawing on delicious fuscia & magenta crayola's.... mmmmmm. delicious. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +\*\*\*\*\*EDIT #2 : I'd like to share a message i received from u/Maximus_King_Mars... + +"I'm imagining that the FTD shorted stocks or counterfeit stocks have a special status associated with them that allow them to be "owned" by the MEMX index. Like them borrowing your own stock as well.Because of trade account aggregation, each crime is done in bulk by the shadow index on behalf of the members. So instead of each member getting hit for $5M per action, billions of dollars worth of moves just incur a $5M fee for the naked selling without giving the stock back.This fee paid into by each institutional member. Its a whole shadow league of illicit trading that dilutes the value of the shares as wellOn top of that, they are likely to be bailed out at any time, so we are literally paying taxes on behalf of our great grandchildren to hold our own positions down.I'm trying to figure out how the cycle of buying high and bidding low works though as far as the entry of shares into the shadow index...on the bright side, the actions we take now are making the corruption obviousPrices are set or tracked within the index itself between the players, so it being separate from the main indices but using the same shares should not be a problemIf you find value in this thinking, please post on my behalf" + +&#x200B; + +ALSO- I was contacted by the PYTH team in regards to this post - specifically the price action for GME. They said "They Loved my content" and I am Awaiting a reply from them, for a chat to iron a few details in which they are offering me. Among other things, how they get their info... this should clarify a few things and hopefully shed some new light on the situation, as the price did spike again last week. I will update this thread ASAP, as soon as we've finished speaking w/ the PYTH team. Thanks guys. + +&#x200B; + +This started as a VERY speculative theory, but is turning into a concrete thesis. Thanks to everyone who has messaged me with further info, and to anyone who is compiling data to do so with in the future. I have my soul to the pulse of the market and will not stop digging until we have ANSWERS, and until our voices are heard, not just by market makers, or poloticians, or Hedge Funds, but by THE ENTIRE WORLD. + +What a long strange trip.... Be kind to one and other. + +<3 +Hi, folks! I'm Noah Smith, your friendly neighborhood econ blogger. I on medical leave from Bloomberg, but I write [a Substack called Noahpinion](https://noahpinion.substack.com/) that has done pretty well! I also have a (fairly silly) [Twitter account](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776)! Previously I was briefly a finance prof at Stony Brook, and before that I did my PhD at the University of Michigan. Here is proof that it's really me: + +[https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776) + +So drop by at 10 AM Pacific / 2 PM Eastern today and ask me about anything you like -- economics, politics, rabbits, anime, whatever. ;-) + +&#x200B; + +OK, AMA is done! Thanks so much, folks! +Tony Hsieh, the CEO of Zappos, died yesterday in a house fire at the ago of 47. This is just a few months after retiring in August. He had a net worth of $840M upon retirement. + +Hopefully this can serve as encouragement or a reminder to those that are hesitant to pull the trigger and enjoy what they've worked hard for over the years. You never know when something will happen to you. +I know they didn't "go" anywhere, but I'm curious how there's not enough houses all of a sudden? Like, just a handful of years ago there wasn't a housing shortage, and I don't believe the population has grown by an unexpected amount. + +I've heard that it's single family homes being turned into rentals, but then wouldn't you expect there would be *pleanty* of rentals available right now? And there's a shortage of those too. + +I've also heard that companies (BLACKROCK?) buying houses and leaving them vacant, but when I drive through my neighborhood I don't see vacant houses by any meaningful amount. + +Is it the eviction/foreclosure moratoriums? Like people who would normally live with roommates have been living alone without paying rent/mortgage? + +I'm just wondering how we can go from having enough houses to not-enough houses in such a short time. Where did they go? +The course gives a broad overview of introductory finance that most here will obviously already know. + +The first reason I thought it worth sharing is because the teacher (Andrew Lo) is probably the best and most passionate finance professor I've ever seen. Really hooks you into the lectures. + +The second is that the course is filmed during the height of the subprime crisis, and each lecture starts with a discussion of recent events and how they relate to concepts in the course. Very interesting to hear perspectives and how they progress throughout the crisis. + + +[Lecture Series](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdHlfiOAJyE&list=PLUl4u3cNGP63B2lDhyKOsImI7FjCf6eDW) + +For those of you that want a great discussion/explanation about what caused the mispricing of subprime mortgages (as opposed to the superficial one given in The Big Short), I would recommend the following section from + +[Lecture 7: Fixed-Income Securities IV](https://youtu.be/ZWKnK9LIETA?t=1983) +These ETFs have the highest returns over the past 5 days, 4 weeks and 13 weeks. + +These ETFs could boost your portfolio returns outside of your CORE investments. Remember the stock market adage of "past performance doesn't predict future returns". **Will these ETFs come back down to earth?** *There are 5 EFTs on the list with greater than 80% returns over 13 weeks, THCX, YOLO, MJ, BLOK, PRNT.* + +**TOP 10 Rocket Ship ETFs.** + +***Listed into 5 categories.*** + +***The 4 ARK fund ETFs.*** + +1. **ARKQ**\- Autonomous Technology & Robotics - 56% over 13 weeks, 128% over 1 year +2. **ARKW**\-ARK Next Generation Internet- 52% over 13 week, 155% over 1 year +3. **IZRL**\-ARK Israel innovative Tech- 44% over 13 weeks. +4. **PRNT**\-3D printing, 17% over 4 days, 28% over 4 weeks, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***The 3 Cannabis ETFs*** + +1. **YOLO** \- 26% over 5 days, 32% over 4 weeks, **96% over 13 weeks.** +2. **THCX**\- 32% over 5 days, 41% over 4 weeks, **100% over 13 weeks.** +3. **MJ-** 32% over 5 days, 45% over 4 weeks, **84% over 13 weeks** + +*Update Edit here,* ***2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!,*** *Now we have a ETF Top 12 HOT list.* + +4. **POTX**\- 44% last 5 days, **144% in 13 weeks.** + +5. **MSOS** \-6% last 5days, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***Blockchain bitcoin ETF*** + +* **BLOK-** 24% over 5 days, **83% over 13 weeks,** 128% over 1 year. + +***BioTech ETF*** + +* **XBI-** 17% over 4 weeks, 44% over 13 weeks, 87% over 1 year. + +***EFT copycat of the ARK idea of innovated disrupt technologies.*** + +* **KOMP** \-*15% over 4 weeks, 51% over 13 weeks, 79% over 1 year* + +*EDIT, 2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!* + +*Enjoy, good luck investing!* +I did have a phone consultation with a financial counselor in 2015 to get some basic advice because I was extremely stressed, not eating because I was afraid of spending money, not sleeping very well because I was just so filled with anxiety, it was a terrible time. My financial counselor did tell me (which seems to go without saying, but at the time I needed to hear it because I was so stressed I was not thinking clearly) that I needed to still eat properly, that not eating is not an ok way to pay off debt and that I needed to do a budget and cut out anything that wasn't a necessity and look for cheaper options for food/clothes/toiletries etc, have some little emergency fund and then throw all the extra leftover money at the debt. + +So I bought most everything at the dollar store (food, cleaning supplies, water, toiletries), clothes I bought at Target. I drove to work and back and walked everywhere else. + +Even during this time, I did put something, even if it was small, into savings so that I could continue to build that emergency fund. Every time I got paid, I would put SOMETHING into savings, even if it was only $5. + +I moved all my debt to an interest free credit card (most creditors will have a promotional 0% APR for 12 months deal). When the promotion was about to end, I moved the balance to another interest free card. + +Any time I got "extra" money (tax refund, birthday/Christmas money, cashback from credit card, the stimulus check we got a few months back, etc) I put a third of it (at least) toward my debt and a third into savings. Even if my grandma sent me $20 in a birthday card, I would put at least $6 toward my debt and $6 in savings. Oh, and I put my money in a high interest savings account (relatively high,around 0.5%). + + And yes I still did use a credit card to pay for things, I picked a cashback credit card and used it like a debit card. I would never buy anything that I didn't have the money for in my checking account. And I would pay it immediately after using the credit card. For example, if I spent $35 at the grocery store, I would use my credit card then immediately pay off the $35 balance with my checking account. And I mean right when I got home, that day. + +I chipped away and chipped away at it. Eventually I got it down to just under $6k. By that time (today) I had built up enough in savings that was able to just pay that $6k off. I know not everyone would be in that position to just have $6k+ in savings, in which case, I would simply keep chipping as and chipping away at it, the next big payment toward it would have been 1/3 of my tax refund. +Hey Everyone, + +I graduated college a few years ago with a computer engineering degree, I was (and probably still am) very arrogant. I thought because I could write good C++ code, I could print money with algo trading and somehow "scalping" stocks. Boy was I wrong! + +I spent the better part of 2 years playing around with strategies. 3 Bar play, some automated support and resistance stuff, ema...nothing ground breaking. I really thought my engineering skills could carry me through, and as I wrote my own code, I thought somehow because I had my own system (nicknamed Project Friday because I started it on a Friday and becauyse I like Jennifer Connolly) I would somehow gain an edge. That wasn't the case for me. + +This isn't to discourage anyone else, I've just decided to go seperate ways. What I've learned of the past 2 years is that trading is incredibly difficult, and I'm not convinced you should go into algotrading unless you are interested in actual trading. I still might swing trade easy stock picks here and there, but I don't see myself connecting to TDA's api in the near future. + +I just want to thank everyone in the community for answer my countless questions. I also want to leave a few thoughts, take it or leave it: +- Python is fast enough. I write C++ and C# code for a living, it probably won't matter for you unless you are somehow market making +- Reddit is the most supportive and most pessimistic community out there. Others who failed love to tell you no, but others will give you enough motivation to run through a brick wall + +I just wanted to explain my expierence. We'll see if its helpful. I've just left to focus on goals that make more sense to my engeering brain. A lot of the traders were helpful, but I'll also say, there are a lot of traders that LOVE to tell you how many THOUSANDS of hours its taken to master what they do, and how skilled they are. I'm very skeptical over that, as a lot of us have had pretty rigorous educations ourselves and theirs an approach like we can't learn it without insane time studying, but whatever, I'll make money in other ways and shovel it into SPY and enjoy life. Thanks everyone, I really mean it. +Fundamental analysis is very important in making investment decisions. So we created a [service](https://roic.ai) with 30+ years of financial statements **without** subscriptions, any payments, or even registration. + +The service has two sections: + +1. A company summary. We take data from the SEC, parse it, and correspond to a stock price month by month to see how the market reacts to changes in earnings and other financial metrics. +2. Full financial statements as far back as the SEC's website can go. For example, 36 years for Apple, Inc. back to 1985. + +I would like to hear your feedback. +**Website:** [**roic.ai**](https://roic.ai) + +P.S. I asked moderators before posting and they approved the publication. + +**Edit**: Wow! Thank you all, guys. We didn't anticipate such strong feedback. We don't ask you for anything. Just use our service and we'll be happy. +But if you want to share our service with your friends (on Twitter, for example), we'll be even happier. We have a lot of work in progress. Stay tuned. +Fundamental analysis is very important in making investment decisions. So we created a [service](https://roic.ai) with 30+ years of financial statements **without** subscriptions, any payments, or even registration. + +The service has two sections: + +1. A company summary. We take data from the SEC, parse it, and correspond to a stock price month by month to see how the market reacts to changes in earnings and other financial metrics. +2. Full financial statements as far back as the SEC's website can go. For example, 36 years for Apple, Inc. back to 1985. + +I would like to hear your feedback. +**Website:** [**roic.ai**](https://roic.ai) + +P.S. I asked moderators before posting and they approved the publication. + +**Edit**: Wow! Thank you all, guys. We didn't anticipate such strong feedback. We don't ask you for anything. Just use our service and we'll be happy. +But if you want to share our service with your friends (on Twitter, for example), we'll be even happier. We have a lot of work in progress. Stay tuned. +Yo, health check time: + +- Get proper sleep +- Eat proper food +- Stretch occasionally +- 💦 HYDRATE 💦 + + +I'm sure we've all been glued to our screens all week, but please make sure you take care of yourselves. + +If you promise to do a good job, we can take turns piloting the rockets 🚀🚀🚀 +Parents always knew raising a child in India – with its broken model of education – is expensive, and turning more so. Actual numbers support this belief. As per ET Online research, the overall expenditure of schooling a child in India in a private school from age 3 to age 17 is a whopping Rs 30 lakh. + +As per economists, the cost of rising private education has not been fully captured in inflation data as it is weighted at just 4.5% in the consumer prices index based on a decade-old model. EduFund says education costs have climbed by around 10-12% in India between 2012-20. Not only the tuition fee but transportation fees and examination fees are also hiked periodically which affects parents’ overall budget + +Elite higher education within India is steep as well. Enrolling in a top-rated engineering college, like one of the twenty-three IITs or any other private institution, for a 4-year BTech or a 3-year BSc, costs around Rs 4-20 lakh. Expenses for coaching for entrance exams like JEE, JEE (Main) and other exams range from Rs 30,000 to Rs 5 lakh. A top-rated management institution like one of the twenty IIMs, or any other private university in the country, costs Rs 8 lakh-Rs 23 lakh. Coaching for qualifying tests like CAT or GMAT has extra cost + +&#x200B; + +[https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/the-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-india-school-costs-30-lakh-college-a-crore/articleshow/93607066.cms](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/the-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-india-school-costs-30-lakh-college-a-crore/articleshow/93607066.cms) +Hey guys! I'm back six months later with a new version of the budgeting spreadsheet I made. Earlier this year I posted the spreadsheet I made for myself and it really resonated with people. As I got more and more feedback I found places where I could improve and develop the sheet into something easier to use but still useful. + +You can find pictures of it [HERE](https://imgur.com/a/63LxvUQ) + +A bit of background on me and why I made this- and also why it's made the way it is. I grew up poor and was never taught about HOW to handle money. If we had money it was already needed for other things. Food, Bills, all of the money we had already had a place. This made me get a mentality that if I had money I needed to spend it before something came up and the money would go. It's unhealthy, but it was the only thing I knew until I moved out. I was taught that money would disappear if I didn't use it, so I just USED it. Even now I still feel anxiety about money and can spend recklessly if I'm not careful. + +&#x200B; + +Another problem I faced is that I have ADHD, so impulse control can be hard, and it can also be hard to keep track of every purchase and focus on a bunch of aspects of a budget. This spreadsheet is made so you only focus on ONE number. + +&#x200B; + +I have made this sheet- and previous versions of it- with three goals in mind: + +* That it be easy to use +* that I can focus on one daily number while supporting my long term goals +* that it be a good starting place for people who have never had another budget + +The sheet is divided into a few different tools. + +Budget: + +* Select your pay schedule, add any extra income/tips that you get monthly and select the percentage of that income that you want to save. +* the credit card section allows you to input up to five cards and adds your monthly car payments to your expenses +* The expenses area is where you'll add all of your itemized expenses. You can also select when your bill is due during the month- allowing you to see if early on in the month your spendable is different from later on in the month. + +Your budget summary at the top is the breakdown of all the information below. YES I know pie charts aren't useful for everything- but that is useful to visually digest information. Look and see where your money is going, see if you spend more than you earn, and finally- see how much money you can spend. + +&#x200B; + +This sheet focuses on giving you ONE number to remember. Daily Spendable. If you want to spend money throughout the day you just have to make sure you DONT go over that number and you will always have enough to cover any other expenses. + + I don't work well with a lot of budgets because I have issues imagining the big picture. By giving myself a daily/weekly/monthly budget I can make sure that on any given day I haven't spent more than I'm allowed to- and if I do i can see where I'm borrowing from or where that money is supposed to come from. + +There are a few extra features too- a large purchase calculator that lets you figure how long youd have to save to buy a larger purchase. It includes a monthly tracker that lets you see what youre spending realistically vs what you've budgeted for and finally a daily tracker for further breakdown. + +&#x200B; + +Finally +[LINK THREE](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vekdgMTyWO9VSTyDN-8XVr4I-WGuDfpbiZd6-vrpf_Y/copy) + +Changes: Added a bi weekly option so you stop asking me to redo math, please yall, its an open spreadsheet you can edit it but i did this one for you. Also NOTE: Yall i wont make an excel version. Some of the functions/graphs break, and the whole point of this is that i made it for myself and i want to share it freely, what means not a paid program- i'm sorry! +[https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) + +Very stable genius, good for the market, smart businessman, etc. etc., +Hey everyone, + +As most of you have heard by now I was put in a position where I was forced to resign as a moderator + +&#x200B; + +The past few weeks have been hard on the mod team, there where some problems and everyone has made some errors. + +&#x200B; + +For me personally it came last week when I got a slew of messages of people complaining about another moderator, yournameisc00l being banhappy, and there was something wrong with the discord as well. and a moderator trying to show off power by removing my posts as well. + +&#x200B; + +when I confronted c00l I wasn't getting any answers on any regards, flat out stating he would wait on the others. This in turn made me very paranoid as all hell. Then checking out the discord suddenly all the channels where gone for me except the one specifically made for me to take notes on DD. Knowing that channel was only visible to moderators I demanded answers now and did a @ everyone. + +As far as I know this will only give a message to the moderators, but apparently this gave a server wide message to every user ,which is weird because as far as I know only mods can view mod channels. + +Then I also reacted to a comment here on the sub, saying I have no clue what's going on with the Discord server, I am no longer a moderator there but I'll look into it. <this made a big problem apparently and was asked to delete it, so I did along with the message on discord. + +and then got flack for deleting the message on discord because it made it so that there was confusion. + +If that message did go out to everyone in the server I am very sorry, but given the laissez faire attitude I was getting from mr c00l and getting no responses from everyone my paranoia kicked into overdrive because I foresaw this as a WSB 2.0 situation. + +&#x200B; + +This in combination with the "nahuh I'll wait for the rest" attitude of mr cool had left me to take away his mod powers until the rest of the group could chime in. + +(something the rest would do to u/redchessqueen99 once I was ill this past weekend.) + +Now this same mod also banned Warden, I told the rest no wait because I wanted to talk to them and warden to make sure we could resolve this situation to at least not end in a permaban, as I did see it as a mistake at the time, as I believe there should be some communication going both ways and I do think context matters.Later I called for a meeting, stating I no longer believed mr c00l had the best interest of the sub in mind. + +&#x200B; + +they claiming I was a bad team player, which a case could certainly be made for, that I was self-aggrandizing which I don't agree with and saying I was doing this for self serving things which... again I don't personally see. + +These things have lead the rest of the mod team to "vote" to kick me out, this was not a choice made by me but for me, I even wanted to stay on with limited mod powers to be able to at least help in some way or form. but no dice. and was asked to resign as a mod myself because of public image. + +&#x200B; + +I do have to state, I do however respect Chickthief and thr0wthis4ccount4way, the two mods I have no clue on how the new mods from discord are as I had 1 or 2 sentences I talked with 0Wl and he was very nice to me. + +I was always transparent with everyone here and would like to continue in doing so, thereby my writeup here and now. + +I fully expect to be banned for speaking out, even though it's factually, and realize this could be my last post on r/GME + +&#x200B; + +I will most likely take my time and think about where I want to go from here, and am contemplating if I should continue with my daily's or not, as my intentions never changed but because I got kicked from the mod team it has given me food for thought. + +I wish everyone here the best regardless, I will be 💎👐 no matter what. + +If I do end up getting banned I will most likely be in r/Superstonk r/Spielstopp or another one.Again I first need to figure out if I even want to do it anymore, and I'll be posting this message to both. + +I wish everyone the best + +as always my personal twitter is [https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +&#x200B; + +Edit: + +r/gme has already deleted my post so... [https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mkgolv/synopsis\_for\_0405/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mkgolv/synopsis_for_0405/) + +It was removed because of "promotion" and "tagging the mods, as you can see for yourself in the above message (it was copy pasted) there is no promotion or tagging of mods. Make from this what you want :) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 2: +I've just heard the mods of r/gme are getting death threats + +# DO NOT DO THIS + +Seriously regardless how you think of them, that is NOT the way we do business. + +I will not stand for that, I've received threats like this, pixel has and they are horrible. + +Regardless of how you feel about them be adults. They don't deserve threats, if you disagree with them disagree as an adult and voice your concerns. anyone posting death threats to anyone will get a permaban from me personally. + +To the mods of r/gme I am truly sorry you have to deal with this and I hope you know I am not ok with these messages in any way shape or form. +I’m sure this will get buried among the many posts today, but it bears repeating: short-term fluctuations in the stock market are *short-term*. The fact that the market is down right now does not affect your long-term investment outlook, as stocks are a long-term game. If you sell now, you will lose out on the rebound, just as my parents did during the financial crisis of 2008/2009. You do not want to sell now unless you are selling as part of your financial planning objectives that you have identified long before the whole Coronavirus panic hit. + +Edit: this did not, in fact, get buried among the other posts today. RIP my inbox + +Edit2: to answer some common questions: + +1. “Is now a good time to invest?” - that’s a weighted question, and not one I can answer directly. There are many factors to determine whether or not it’s a good time to invest. Please refer to the wiki for investing resources to see if now is a good time for you to invest. + +2. “Should I be reallocating from stocks to bonds now?” - as mentioned above, reallocations should be evaluated as part of your overall retirement strategy. A reallocation is basically selling some investments and buying others in place of those you sold; as such, it is generally unwise to reallocate in response to a single event and should really be done as part of your strategy towards retirement (e.g. reallocating from stocks to bonds as you get older to limit risk exposure). + +3. “Will xxxxx affect me?” - I don’t know. Although I am a financial professional, if you have any questions relating to your particular circumstances, you should seek out a financial professional outside of Reddit or refer to the wiki in this sub for specific information. + +4. “What if you’re close to retirement? Should I sell?” - if you’re close to retirement, the general financial planning consensus is that you should not have a significant percentage of your wealth in equities. Example allocations would be anywhere from 80/20 or 90/10 bonds to equities. If you have any more than 20% equities and are close to retirement, yes you should probably think about reallocating to bonds, but not because of this recent stock market panic. Again, please consider speaking to a financial professional or using the sub’s wiki for additional info. +This has been a crazy ride. Wow. I can't even begin to explain but I will try to. + +It started a little less than a year ago when I heard a candidate at work tell me about Ethereum and how it was going to change the world. On a whim I took out a medium sized loan from my 401k and invested it into ETH. + + In that time I have invested in ICO's, and other Alt coins like IOTA. I even ran Crypto Currency Slack group for a while. I became a household name under another screen name that was notorious for the amount of IOTA and ETH I held. + +Today me and my wife got married. I sold off my Ethereum, Dragonchain, Iota, Golem, and Substratum. I am now set for life and crying a bit while typing this. + +It is so bitter sweet. Everyone here can reach their moon. It is possible. Believe in the technology. I know I do, just at this time in my life, I would rather have the tangible money. I was able to pay off our cars, our house, the student loans and set up a trust fund for my future children. + +I am speechless. HODL. Hold on to dear fucking life, and know that the future of ETH is brighter than the light from a thousand suns. + +Peace out nerds. +Industry lifer here who has made enough to retire several times over but keeps working at a MM firm because I just love the game. I feel a duty to let you know that the current top post on this sub is full of horrible information. + +People are for some reason upvoting OP's "rebuttal" to u/spintwig, a "rebuttal" that contains absolutely zero empirical information of any sort, and zero value other than apparently being what people want to hear. + +In reality, everything you need to know about OP's actual knowledge of trading can be seen here: + +>“market makers”, is short hand for anyone making real money in finance today. Alpha would take a huge hit if your average American knew even a little more about money management. +> It is just like any field, the people making the money try to keep you out! + +If OP actually knew what a market maker was, he'd know that I want you IN! I want you to trade as much as possible! That's how I make my money! + +Entire context if you care: https://old.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/j4yswq/wheel_spy_holding/g7qikp4/ + +There was one person posting correct answers in that thread and that was /u/imnotarobotyouare, who is 100% correct that anyone who is basing current trading decisions on the cost at which the thing was acquired is falling victim to the anchoring fallacy. This is literally one of the first things we teach junior traders at our firm. It doesn't matter if your shares were acquired at $0, $10, or $1000; you make models based on marks and theos and you trade based on NOW. That's it. And yet the people saying this, the people who knew what they were talking about, were shouted down in spintwig's original thread. I get why the experienced people don't stick around this sub and nearly all the active accounts have less than a year of experience trading. + +OK back into the shadows for a bit until something else comes along to really offend me. On behalf of my desk, keep trading! +Husband bought a NEW truck without my knowledge. Just drove home with a truck and a $860/month payment for 5 years. We bring in 4400/month. Our mortgage is $900/month. My car payment is $320. I have one year left on that. We pay $500/week for daycare for our single kid, so that’s HALF our money gone at the end of the month. After our mortgage, this new truck payment, my car payment and daycare that will leave us with a grand total of $330 a month for our other bills. “We will be fine” he says. I just lost it. Then he told me to get a second job if I was so worried. I am so close to graduating with my BSN. I can’t have two full time jobs and go to school full time FOR A TRUCK HE BOUGHT. He told me to sell my car because his truck gets better mileage and I asked him how his diesel truck getting 22 miles to the gallon is better than my car that gets 32 and he said the tank is bigger on his. It’s like he’s been replaced with a stupid alien. I don’t even know what his thought process has been. + +We cannot survive on $330/month or pay our other bills, water, gas (diesel for his stupid new truck) , electric, FOOD. We will have nothing to put back for emergencies. I am so angry, this is the most irresponsible thing. I can’t even leave. I won’t be able to find a place to rent for under $900 month beside that this is my home damn it. I can’t afford the mortgage and other bills on my own. I’m just a NA right now, I only bring home $1800/month. Not enough to even cover daycare. I couldn’t afford a lawyer anyway. + +Edited: I am overwhelmed with all the wonderful advice here. I always come here to read the advice, it’s one of my faves spots on Reddit. I can’t respond to you all. We have (had) amazingly great credit. I am just sick over this. He is refusing to take back the truck. We had another blow up over it. I graduate in December and I already have an offer of employment at the hospital I work for so he said he “took a chance on a great offer because our money situation will change”. I told him I was done. We can’t go 6 months on nothing. And $500/week is CHEAP daycare for where we are at and it’s a very good daycare, I am not leaving my baby at some sketchy home daycare. I am not quitting my job to stay home so my husband can have a fucking truck. The hospital is helping pay my tuition and I like my job. I am not going to be stuck jobless and dependent on a man, no thanks. No he hasn’t hit his head or have any sort of mental issues that I know of. +If I had read this when I first started off I would probably not believe it myself. I hope after sharing my results people will believe what can be achieved if you work hard to get into the top 0.5% of traders. + +I paper traded for one month and started live trading in June 2020 with a $1500 account. As someone using TradeZero International (non-US based) there are no PDT rule restrictions for under $25k accounts. After reloading several times (total deposits under $10k) I became profitable from January 2021. + +## Stats + +* Started 01/01/2021 with $1800 account equity +* 160 green days +* 91 red days +* 2 days off +* Note below graphs do not include commissions and borrow fees which is why net profit is less + +[All time PnL](https://preview.redd.it/4le3jd16x9981.png?width=454&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750fe524cf2d0886b3c8ae050e2f521e6e8d7c0) + +&#x200B; + +[2021 by month](https://preview.redd.it/7u1zuvhcx9981.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=a58d67a69e8cf53f0904591ce91b4820d133477c) + +December was my best month so far (note average holding time stats are not accurate for daytrades due to some overnight/swing trades affecting the average) + +[December stats](https://preview.redd.it/say8lpvdx9981.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=5263759e70bd6b839129f757206b1066c3796426) + +[December calendar](https://preview.redd.it/qotzqicex9981.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8974f3faaf15e46f528fd400f3e8663d345f91b) + +## Kinfo verification + +[https://kinfo.com/portfolio/17188/performance](https://kinfo.com/portfolio/17188/performance) + +"Viewing and sharing on kinfo is only possible through direct integration with brokers. There is no way to add manual transactions, remove transactions or in any way manipulate the data which comes from the broker. This makes data on kinfo 100% authentic and there is no way for a user on kinfo to provide fake results on their trading performance." [https://kinfo.com/verified-trades/](https://kinfo.com/verified-trades/) + +# Trading Style + +## Market + +Primarily daytrading US equities both long and short. Recently started expanding to short term swing trading and simple option strategies (long call, long put). + +## Stock Selection + +I trade most stocks that have volume and volatility, from small cap low float gappers to large caps. When I started off with a small account I primarily traded sub $10 stocks. Now I have moved onto midcaps and higher priced stocks since I don't want to pay as much short locate fees. + +Every stock trades differently, some trade cleaner than others than others. For example, tickers like AMC and TSLA have plenty of volume and liquidity, respects technical levels often, leading to frequent opportunities on a daily basis. + +## Style + +I believe there are many different profitable ways to trade, from scalping to swing trading, shorting parabolics to buying dips. You can find edge in any strategy. I would describe my style as: + +* Rooted in technical analysis +* Price action based +* Discretionary systematic + +General types of trade setups: + +* Breakouts, breakdowns (from ranges) +* Mean reversion on "extension" (reversals, short and long) +* Trend following + +## Indicators + +Chart + +* Standard candlestick chart - using various time intervals +* VWAP - session, anchored +* Moving averages - simple, exponential +* Volume +* Volume profile with point of control (PoC) + +Market sentiment + +* SPY - relevant for large caps and market names +* IWM - relevant for small caps +* VIX - volatility index +* BTCUSD - when trading crypto stocks + +## Level 2, Time & Sales/Tape + +My entries are 100% based off the chart. I always have Level 2 (market depth) and Time & Sales (tape) on screen with the order windows and look at them but they are not crucial for me. I can read tape but would not say I'm good at it. + +## Fundamentals + +Fundamentals can be important: when trading small caps many are not "great" companies and often dilute shares to the public market which can affect the price of the stock. In large caps, news events and earnings can drive volatility, so understanding these earnings reports can help. I only have a basic understanding of SEC filings, offerings and other dilution, as there are many tools out there that help with this. Fundamental knowledge can help with understanding why a stock is moving/gapping but technical analysis is still key in timing entries and exits. In trading, being early is the same as being wrong. + +## Risk + +My risk and scaling strategy is pretty basic compounding: max risk per trade is 2% of my current equity, which I adjust at the beginning of each trading day. + +* At $1,500 account my risk per trade was $30. +* At $25,000 it was $500. +* At $50,000 it was $1000 etc. + +Since there is a discretionary aspect to my trading I don't take the same risk every single trade. For example I may risk 1% on okay setups, 2% risk on great setups, and on rare occassions 3% on A+ setups. Look up Kelly criterion to understand why 2% is often used by many systems. + +## R/R & winrate + +There are lots of threads out there on this topic. The default consensus when people talk about RR is to only take trades with a RR higher than 2:1 as it allows you to be profitable with any winrate over 33%. As your RR decreases your winrate must be higher. + +I sometimes take profit before 2R. I sometimes don't take any profit until after 2R. Obviously I try to aim for at least 2R+ targets in order to have a positive expectancy overall, but mostly I base my decisions off the chart and potential support/resistance zones, how price action is forming when inside the trade, so I do not rigidly take profit at fixed multiples of the risk amount. + +## Review & Journalling + +The process of reviewing is crucial to a trader's progression. People do it different ways; some people track large amounts of quantitive data in excel, others are more qualitative in their analysis of executions and charts. + +I use TraderVue to import my trades daily and tag them with labels based on setups and characteristics. Every weekend I review my trades of the week, biggest winners, biggest losers and missed opportunities, annotating and screenshotting charts which are saved to a OneNote notebook. + +# Tools I use + +* Benzinga Pro - news +* Twitter - news, other traders +* TradingView - charts +* TradingView - scanner +* Finviz - scanner +* TradeZero - broker +* Discord - community +* Tradervue - journal +* OneNote - journal +* Excel - risk calculator +* DilutionTracker - fundamentals +* BamSEC - fundamentals + +# Some advice to newer traders + +* Find a mentor + +Mentors have been through all the mistakes a beginner trader will encounter, and can offer invaluable advice to speed up the learning curve. Even so, nothing can replace real world experience and most traders will still go on to experience the same mistakes themselves before learning + +* Join a community + +Trading can be a solitary job. It can be beneficial to talk ideas with other traders. Communities/chatrooms are also good for idea generation, and acting as scanners. Essentially you have many other traders looking at similar stocks and talking about tradeable charts. You should not join chatrooms to chase alerts as the end goal is to become independent in your trading + +* Put in the effort, accumulate screen time + +For most trading days I have watched the charts for the majority of market hours (9:30 to 4:00). I say this to show the amount of screen time I have personally accumulated. On top of that the time spent on weekends reviewing and journalling trades, charting potential setups for the week ahead (even though a lot can change on Monday). + +* Practice + +Watching the markets is good, but nothing will beat real trading experience. I missed 2 trading days this year out of 252 days, with a total 8136 trades (granted, the first half of the year I was overtrading massively in learning stages) + +* Start with very small capital while having a stable income + +Growing 10k to 50k should be the same as growing 50k to 250k (for the most part, unless your strategy runs into liquidity issues). Prove you can do it with a smaller account first. Then you must conquer emotion and discipline once you are trading bigger dollar amounts. + +It's easier to learn while having another source of income rather than trying to become profitable while living paycheck to paycheck on trading income. + +## End + +The best part about trading is that the only limit to your success is yourself. Compared to many other traders I am still only a beginner and have so much yet to learn. The potentials of trading are huge and my journey has only just begun. My goal next year is to cross $1M profits and keep scaling up. + +Hope this helps those starting out just like I did in the beginning. Feel free to ask any questions! I also post trades & charts daily on my twitter [Valckrie](https://twitter.com/Valckrie) +I wanna share this story because Its a meme in my life and I feel it belongs here. + +Recently went to dinner and drinks and one guy in our group told me he has shares in a hot sauce company. He pulled up the website and showed me which one. He then told me he bought 250 shares at $2.00 each he even said "I couldn't really afford them right now but I just bought them". I was just going with the convo and saying oh yeh, nice, that's cool. Then he said he's hoping those shares go up to $100 to $150 a share within the next year... + +I said I dont wanna burst your bubble but that's not gonna happen. I started naming big companies that he'd know and their share prices as an example. He didn't even buy them on asx it was through equity crowd funding and even said that I might be confused.... + +Hot sauce 🚀 +We can't let these legendary affiliate scammers get away with what they did, and we have to show them all that we are the internet, and that we never forgive, and never forget. + +Fuck these guys, and make sure you spread the word around about what they did, and continue to do with other Ponzi's like cloud mining. Go to their videos, and websites, and spread the warning. + +These people don't get to just conveniently forget what has happened, and expect the rest of us to just forget about it too! Fuck them, and hopefully some more serious actions get taken against them for what they are responsible for, and please do your research before getting involved with any of these shysters too people. + +You have a responsibility to protect yourself and your friends as well, and you are not exempt of all blame here either for falling for this shit if you did, so wake the fuck up! + +*** + +**Edit** + +Since this post blew up, and made its way on over to the /r/All sub-Reddit and most of them don't understand what is going on, I decided to make an edit with a video that pretty much sums up all of the bad actors and more mentioned in this post, so if you want a backstory, just watch this video from /u/dougpolkpoker for a better understanding: https://youtu.be/upPmNzcqFkU +Hey guys! I hope you all are well! I'm looking for a bit of fiscal advice . I just came into almost 2 million dollars from a legal battle and I was wondering if anyone had any advice about what to do next. All of my taxes, debts, car(s), legal fees and home are all paid for at this point but I would like to begin "putting the money to work for me" asap. Are financial advisers worth it? What isxa good banking institution for for the nouveau riche? Any suggestions on stock or investment tips? Thanks guys! +My Axis Bank has decided to [increase various charges starting next month](https://application.axisbank.co.in/FeesAndChargeMaster/FeesAndCharges.aspx) (May, 2021) for Savings Account. + +For example, it was charging only Rs. 5 per month for sending SMS alerts which has now increased to Rs. 25! (Yearly cost increased from mere Rs. 60 to Rs. 300 now). Call me a penny wise or *chingoos* but I'm one of those who tracks my expenses minutely and a believer that drops form the ocean. + +Adding fuel to fire is their minimum monthly balance requirements. It was already too high at 10,000, so I was hoping they'd decrease it in near future (after SBI decreased it and recent RBI circulars) but instead, they increased it to 15,000 from May! + +I'm fed up with this now. I was stuck with Axis because it was my first salary account but now I want to switch. Can you suggest me a decent bank with good credibility who doesn't loot their customers in this manner? +I’m staying in an oceanfront villa right now, but I can’t sleep because a GIGANTIC yacht is blasting middle eastern club music off shore from my bedroom. + +I am annoyed but also find it quite funny that this is my current life problem. I thought some in this group would appreciate it. + +On the off chance that the owner of said boat is in this sub, turn your music down and congrats on the epic boat that illuminates the entire sea beneath you. +As you might know, Berkshire Hathaway owns 19.4% of Occidental Petroleum. The company's income is primarily from selling oil. + + +Buffett guides people to buy companies with large runways. Companies that will stand the test of time. + + +However in my opinion, carbon is slowly fading away. For example EU has a law that will ban all fuel based cars in 2040. + + +OXY had negative net income in 2019 and 2020. + + +So I'm kinda baffled as to why would Buffett consider buying this stock. Is it purely a logical decision or is there something behind the scenes? +My children will receive millions upon turning 18 and will also receive a yearly stipend of 700k from a family business that we have zero control of. When should we tell them? I want to be honest but also don’t want to destroy the incentive to finish school or the drive to be independent. + +Oldest is 11 +I’ve been having an emotional battle with myself. I’ve always been left of centre and while morally I probably have more in common with socialists, I want to understand capitalism better and brush away any propaganda from capitalists and socialists. +I’m in my early 20s and feeling a bit lost at the moment. I currently earn 87k and have begun saving to be able to purchase my first home. All is going perfectly but I’m still not satisfied because I can’t figure out the reason for doing all of this. + +Just the thought of going to work, coming home to a family, going on holidays once a year and repeating for 40 years sounds incredibly depressing. We are only on this planet for 80 years before we are gone forever, and all our accomplishments forgotten. A couple generations after we are gone, not even our own descendants will know who we are. + +So my question is, what really are your goals in life? is having a family, good job and a home all you really want to achieve? When your time is near, will you look back and be proud of what you have spent your valuable time on? +I have seen a very common behavior after reading so many things (not just books) and hearing many talks and watching videos. + +>**"When people start calling warren buffet dumb, well we are in a bubble"** + +Buffet missed Internet stock, He is Dumb!. + +Buffet Sold Airlines, He is Dumb!. + +A 20s guy calls 90s (age or era) old man Dumb...& many believes it. + +&#x200B; + +For those who are experiencing FOMO, please do watch it: + +[Warren Buffett: How Long Can Stocks Stay Overvalued?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYoTY9MoaUY&t=64s) + +For Full (My Favorite): + +[Warren Buffett, Chariman, Berkshire Hathaway Investment Group | Terry Leadership Speaker Series](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a9Lx9J8uSs) + +&#x200B; + +From The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing Book by Pat Dorsey + +>I realized this some years ago while attending the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, the firm run by billionaire superinvestor Warren Buffett. I overheard another attendee complain that he wouldn’t be attending another Berkshire meeting because “Buffett says the same thing every year.” To me, that’s the whole point of having an investment philosophy and sticking to it. If you do your homework, stay patient, and insulate yourself from popular opinion, you’re likely to do well. It’s when you get frustrated, move outside your circle of competence, and start deviating from your personal investment philosophy that you’re likely to get into trouble + +**Edit: Few are considering this as a Buffet fan post. It is NOT !.** + +**I'm talking about the behavior and co-related human crowd being to optimistic to calling buffet as dumb. Both looked to be happening at the same time as per my realization!** + +&#x200B; + +>BullMarket=Human optimism high=Buffet is Dumb. + +It's **crowd behavior** I'm talking about in this post ! + + +Edit2: + +About the Bubble (I'll check what experts are saying) : + + +Q: Are we nearing the top of the bubble? + +A: there are only few sectors in bubble. rest market is below 2018 + + +Source: [@contrarianEPS](https://twitter.com/ItsVeeeJay/status/1380533963890946049?s=20) + + +Keep Learning!!! +There truly is no mentally taxing profession that those of us locked into day trading. Most day traders have therapists, psychiatric help basically being a requirement, and it’s really no wonder why. + +Of course we all make jokes, it’s part of the human condition to do so, but we’ve also all felt the despair of truly being Bogged, whether it’s selling too early or way too late. Knowing that financial freedom was as simple as destroying your laptop after you bought the token and then checking a week later is hard to come to grips with. + +Luckily, HappyCoin is here to solve this problem on two fronts. With 5% of all transactions reflected to $HAPPY owners, the **charity wallet** that the developers have set aside is designed to be the top holder and continue expanding as the token sees exponential activity. + +With the charity wallet, the team will decide on a **new mental health organization to donate to every Friday**, ensuring that we share the love and keep our ears to the ground and to our community on where $HAPPY could best be spread 😊 😊 😊 + +Otherwise, we’ll also be looking to give everyone a 2nd chance at those tokens you missed before. HOGE, SafeMoon, <insert Elon coin here>, whatever you might have been regretting selling out of or even outright ignoring, this is your chance to get in right at the beginning **(currently less than 100 holders!!!)** on a token with a **huge marketing team** and experienced developers behind them. + +So if you shorted DOGE, don’t despair. There’s still time to make more $HAPPY with the team having **renounced ownership** and **burned all LP**, making this project **unruggable**. An **extremely low market cap** **of $20k** (this coin **just started less than an half an hour ago** and the momentum already has been nothing short of, erm, crazy). It’s a testament to the marketing plan that has clearly been devised with every contingency in mind and every available tool being considered. + +On this holy holiday, let’s make the world a $HAPPY-er place! Starting of course with your wallet, so add some $HAPPY to your life and you’ll be able to show everyone that sweet smile, shit-eating grin even, when you let them know you found inner peace in finding success and contributing to goodwill, and outer peace in relaxing, work-free, in your quaint marble mansion. + +Links below: + +[Website](https://www.thehappycoin.co/) + +happy\_coinTG + +[Pancakeswap](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb0b924c4a31b7d4581a7f78f57cee1e65736be1d) + +[Chart](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xB0B924C4a31b7d4581a7F78F57ceE1E65736Be1D) +The final picture is starting to come together. The ties of the former CFTC (who now works for citadel) & SEC chairmen to the industry appear to be pointing to fraudulent activity in efforts to prolong the necessity of **SOFR** being implemented. **SOFR** the last time it was attempted to transitioned into (in 2019) almost IMPLODED the market due to many realizing that banks and others could not handle a higher interest rate (based off the [DAILY TRESURY YIELD RATE](https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield)) versus the fabricated one that banks provide. + +&#x200B; + +With that being said, let's get into it. + +&#x200B; + +/u/sharkbaitlol here again for another post in the **"Chaos Theory"** series that delves deeper into the underworking of the financial realm. Just for a reintroduction of myself from other posts, my career has revolved around the data realm having worked on data collection, interpretation and machine learning for the last decade or so. I am also a lifelong gamer and have always been addicted to identifying patterns in real-life and games. **I do not claim to be a financial advisor; THIS POST IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE. Apes should always challenge information and supplement with your own.** + +It is in my hopes that these posts result in an increase of people seeking out MORE information that could continually lead us in the right direction; I want our children to grow up in a system where it is not rigged against them. *I would like to thank the hundreds of fellow apes that have messaged me or commented with links and thoughts as we sweep the world for information. Apes together strong.* + +# I don't know how else to say this, but it is with great concern that I write this post. + +&#x200B; + + There are elements here that go deeper into describing what danger the economy finds itself in (as if it wasn't evident already through all the countless DD already provided by this community). + +I will attempt to provide you as many pieces of factual evidence possible and will make it known when my opinion on the matter is being presented. I will be creating links to some of my previous DD and others throughout the post. This is my attempt at connecting the dots in what I believe is one of **the final connections** of the story. + +&#x200B; + +**NOW GRAB THE COOLER OF BEERS AND GET BACK ON THE ROCKET BECAUSE WE'RE ABOUT TO GO DEEPER INTO SPACE 🚀👨‍🚀👩‍🚀🐱‍🚀🦧🦍** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Right from the top I will simplify the presentation of my findings for ease of understanding with the table of contents you see below. + +&#x200B; + +1. CFTC & SEC --- You Can't Make Old Friends +2. Credit Suisse --- A Leaky Boat +3. Gary Gensler --- GG GLHF +4. LIBOR vs SOFR --- Global Financial Evolution +5. **THE GREAT TRAP** + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**Section 1 --- CFTC & SEC --- You Can't Make Old Friends** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +As identified in "[Chaos Theory - Conflicts of Interest](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpmnzt/chaos_theory_conflicts_of_interest/)", we were able to find out that the former chairman of the CFTC & SEC appear to be in one hell of a conflict of interest. *If you've read my last post, you can probably skim over this and head into Section 2.* + +Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton just took a job at **Apollo Global Management** in a newly created role of lead independent director on its board last month. We start digging here and find out that **Tiger Global Management** holds a 14.8% stake in; making them the largest shareholder of Apollo other than a private holdings company from Apollo themselves (BRH) ([https://fintel.io/so/us/apo](https://fintel.io/so/us/apo)). + +In relation to this, don't forget that Bill Hwang is an alumni of the **Tigers** and the [mess he's been involved in](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-04-08/how-bill-hwang-of-archegos-capital-lost-20-billion-in-two-days) with **Archegos.** This as we know has resulted in a massive hit to **Credit Suisse's** books in the tune of billions (we still don't know the full extent of this). + + We also found out that **Apollo** and **Tiger** so happen to be in the same building in New York (the Solow Building) and are doing [shady dealings + tax evasions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mokvhk/chaos_theory_the_everything_connection/) down in the Cayman Islands and Bermuda; namely the [Ugland House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ugland_House) (which was labelled by former president Obama as "the biggest tax scam in the world"). Even new SEC chairmain **Gary Gensler** has some thoughts on the matter: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b\_GcpsIyQFc&t=1259s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_GcpsIyQFc&t=1259s) (*We also know that* [*the U.S. is losing $1 trillion annually to tax cheats*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqp2aj/the_us_is_losing_1_trillion_annually_to_tax/)*: courtesy of* /u/vadoge). REMEMBER CITADEL IS DOING THINGS DOWN HERE TOO DIRECTLY THROUGH VARIOUS ENTITES LIKE PALAFOX. + +&#x200B; + +NOW we encounter our first conflict on interest here as we delve into **Jay Clayton's** new employer, **Apollo Global Management.** As it turns out the former CEO of **Apollo** stepped down **JUST LAST MONTH** because of his ties with **Jeffery Epstein**. Here's the story from a couple weeks ago ago. + +[https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2021\/mar\/22\/leon-black-quits-apollo-jeffrey-epstein-ties-inquiry ](https://preview.redd.it/j7jfsva7akt61.png?width=642&format=png&auto=webp&s=da0b6fd00c75f2ccd18a796ae131837cda111895) + +Wait so you're telling me that the former SEC chairman is working for a company that was connected with one of the most infamous criminals of all time? **YUP.** Well at least the old CEO isn't there anymore right? + +&#x200B; + +[Yikes, almost like this shouldn't be allowed right?](https://preview.redd.it/t494wh2nakt61.png?width=726&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ba672225d6129f58c2e7a934286fa471e368705) + +Now lets take a step back about two weeks ago or so; recall [Mr. Heath Tarbert](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heath_Tarbert)? Who was the former chairmen of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). Last we heard he just got hired by our boy **Ken Griffin** as his **Chief Legal Officer.** + +**Turns out that Jay Clayton and Heath Tarbert** (brought in during the Trump administration) **know each other pretty well. In-fact Heath had this to say about his** ***friend*** **Jay Clayton.** + +>*“It has been an honor to serve alongside Jay Clayton. He is one of the smartest and most capable transactional attorneys in the country and an* ***even better colleague and friend****. As leaders of the SEC and CFTC, we have* ***worked together closely*** *to harmonize our rules where appropriate and hold wrongdoers accountable."* + +Directly from the CFTC site: [https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8310-20](https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8310-20). So now we have two former chairman of the organizations meant to control **Wall Street** who are working for the very thing they were regulating. The same **Wall Street** they were "harmonizing rules" for --- oh and one of them is working at a Hedge Fund associated with a criminal. Great, totally not a problem. + +**MY OPINION:** There's nothing from these two from continually working together even now; only a few months have passed since these two were last collaborating. This begins to lead us into an ordeal that starts to paint a picture of what may have happened in the last few years and how some hedge funds might have further screwed themselves with super cheap interest rates introduced during the pandemic on loans with these two formerly at the helm stoking the flames. + +&#x200B; + +Wonder how **Gary Gensler** as the new SEC chairman will play into all this now? That will be covered soon. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**Section 2 --- Credit Suisse --- A Leaky Boat** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +NOW how does **Credit Suisse (CS)** find themselves in this mess? They just can't seem to keep themselves out of the news. More holes keep getting blown out in their ship that they're desperately trying to patch. We already mentioned the situation with **Archegos**, but something that hasn't been mentioned as much is their losses associated with **Greensill Capital and their filing for insolvency on** [March 8th, 2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/28/business/greensill-capital-collapse.html)**.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fdsh2w87lkt61.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=5113442e44ba4fa74a5762de80fb87b529d62ee5 + +As a result of their bankruptcy, 50,000 people lost their jobs when it became evident that during courthouse hearing in Sydney, Australia - $4.6 billion was owed and no one was extending out a hand to loan anymore to **Greensill** (THIS IS A BIG PIECE OF THIS STORY, HOLD THIS THOUGHT FOR NOW BECAUSE THIS IS GOING TO GET CRAZY LATER ON). + +As a result different parts of **Greensill** had to be liquidated as a means to recoup costs. One of the impacted was **Greensill's** tech partner **Taulia**. **Guess who had plans to acquire them?** + +[what are they doing here???](https://preview.redd.it/jhz33vbpmkt61.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=095679127038922ac1619d382f4745d6398fffd0) + +YES **APOLLO** IS MEDDLING HERE. Now everything was going according to plan for **Apollo**, seems like they'd be able to get a pretty cheap cost of entry on **Taulia** who from their site: + +&#x200B; + +>*"* ***Taulia*** *is a financial technology business that provides working capital management, electronic invoicing, supply chain finance, and dynamic discounting services. The company helps* ***buyers and suppliers accelerate payments****, improve supply chain health, and* ***unlock trapped cash. "*** + +&#x200B; + +But **SURPRISE!** + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-britain-greensill-apollo-idUSKBN2B4233](https://preview.redd.it/bakrkhoimkt61.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc2aefebb0a91ba9491a3f820cef0f5975c4b722) + +&#x200B; + +**YOINK**. JPMorgan decides to play the uno reverse card and that they want **Taulia** on their side too. Oh and it turns out **UniCredit + UBS Group** want a piece of the action as well. + +Don't forget who are the two major institutional owners of **JPMorgan**... + +[if it isn't our boys BlackRock, and Vanguard. Source: https:\/\/fintel.io\/so\/us\/jpm](https://preview.redd.it/rbccdb5eqkt61.png?width=1245&format=png&auto=webp&s=074655ed2767fc33c72a139c6c2ff0e1eed43d08) + +As a side note did I mention that **UBS** is the direct competitor of **CreditSuisse** in Switzerland and that the two are planning a merger? [https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/ubs-chair-axel-weber-says-a-merger-with-credit-suisse-could-take-years-20201207](https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/ubs-chair-axel-weber-says-a-merger-with-credit-suisse-could-take-years-20201207) + +To add to all this, we now we also know that **BlackRock** is looking to [make a move on Credit Suisse](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-blk-mulling-buy-credit-174205125.html) in the midst of this storm. This is in addition to their existing relationship with [Swiss Re](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mokvhk/chaos_theory_the_everything_connection/) ^((scroll down for more information in that thread to Section 5).) + +&#x200B; + +**MY OPINION:** From researching around it seems that for one reason or another, consolidation of banks appears to be a focus headed into the near future. **BlackRock** is looking to somehow join the narrative and become further ingrained in the banking world. This becomes especially interesting considering how **BlackRock** is positioning themselves as **the 'fourth branch of government'**. I believe I explain this relationship a bit better in anticipation of what the future is going to bring (Section 4). + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**BONUS ROUND --- UK EDITION** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Just so our fellow apes in the **UK** don't feel left out of all the drama, none other than former **Prime Minister David Cameron** was heavily involved with **Greensill,** lobbying for the company. + +Just some examples of what he's being called out for: + +" + +* He [**texted Chancellor Rishi Sunak**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56681939), asking for the company to be included in a Covid-related government loan scheme +* He also contacted Treasury ministers Jesse Norman and John Glen about the company +* He met Health Secretary Matt Hancock - along with Lex Greensill - for a "private drink" in 2019 [**to discuss a new payment scheme for NHS staff**](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56706619) + +" + +https://preview.redd.it/pfx79zobukt61.png?width=634&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec03360f53875e1112c7ae5bf03c7b4c7b34cf39 + +**IT NEVER ENDS DOES IT.** + +&#x200B; + + + +Now back to our friend **GARY "GG" GENSLER** and how this all potentially plays together. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**Section 3 --- Gary Gensler --- GG GLHF** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Now I'm not going to go into too much depth here about **Gary** himself; apes have done a TON of [research already](https://www.reddit.com/search/?q=gary%20gensler) in this regard. If you're not familiar with him, please have a read of other apes work and then come back. + +https://preview.redd.it/ygmigp4eskt61.png?width=1262&format=png&auto=webp&s=b65c53abdfe30e9a5f6f761d9cc09f866154eefe + +For a short synopsis from ape /u/AAces_Wild (I totally agree with their statement [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mq7nto/who_is_the_new_sec_chair_gary_gensler_my/)): + + +>*"Fellow apes, please warmly welcome Professor Gensler to the SEC. If there’s anyone I would trust to wield the power as SEC chairman while closing loopholes, protecting investors, and policing the largest financial center in the world, it’s Gary Gensler.* +> +>***Key Takeaways****: Gary has extensive expertise in the prosecution of big banks and has shown support for market transparency. Without hesitation, I believe he's the man for the job. Gary is good.* +> +>*As Gary likes to say: "Markets work best when there's a cop on the beat.""* + +I would add to this that he also has a fairly deep background in crypt0-currencies which explain the recent movement of **C0inBase** and the currencies associated with it. **Gary** is very likely to implement new legislation that favors crypt0. He's also fairly knowledgeable about darkpools and their inner workings. + +One of the major concerns that I have however is that **Gary** was involved with bringing the big banks to light back in 2008. To have him appear now and for such a short period of time (his contract is until June when it'll be renegotiated) raises a bit of a flag. + +There is another point here that is of concern, but before we get into it... + +**DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER** + +**POLITICS ARE ALL SCREWED --- THIS ISN'T AN ARGUMENT OF LEFT VERSUS RIGHT. BOTH SIDES HAVE INVOLVEMENT WITH WALL STREET AND ACCEPTS BRIBES. REMEMBER APES ARE TOGETHER BECAUSE WE ARE FIGHTING A CLASS WAR REGARDLESS OF RELIGION, GEOGRAPHY, BELIEFS. WE WANT A BETTER LIFE FOR EACH OTHER.** + +&#x200B; + +Fellow ape /u/justoneshyboy, dug into all those who voted 'Nay' against the election of **Gary Gensler** as the new chairmain. + +Here's what they [found](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqps6r/are_these_donations_from_kenneth_griffin_to/): + +https://preview.redd.it/jlg3u9td2lt61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fa70a08ae2f1f66801057e866a5f3cb191098c3 + +As it turns out, Kenny boy has donated to majority of the 'nay' sayers. Of course, this was bound to happen considering **Gary** was selected on behalf of the democrats. Where does this lead us to? + +Well one of the major topics of focus come from this clip of **GG** himself; give this a quick watch for about 2 minutes: + +[https:\/\/youtu.be\/b\_GcpsIyQFc?t=1425 from 2014 ](https://preview.redd.it/4i2q1efa4lt61.png?width=977&format=png&auto=webp&s=d807532d35de00f69ef8b4a2713947fbd50bab54) + +[https://youtu.be/b\_GcpsIyQFc?t=1425](https://youtu.be/b_GcpsIyQFc?t=1425); a quote directly from **Gary** in the video: + +>"Today the CFTC announced it's fifth settlement with a bank for **pervasive rigging interest rates** \[...\] these interest rates called the **London Inter-Bank Offer Rate (LIBOR)** is a **critical reference rate for the U.S. economy.** Student loans are sometimes tied to them, mortgages are tied to them, small business loans, and yes 70%; **seven-zero** of the international derivatives market, futures, swaps are tied to LIBOR" + +# REMEMBER THESE TWO THINGS MENTIONED IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH OTHER: + +* "PERVASIVE RIGGING INTEREST RATES" +* "**London Inter-Bank Offer Rate (LIBOR)"** + +&#x200B; + +**MY OPINION:** Look at what's happening with the bond market in the last few days in [China](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mqcfxr/huarong_asset_mgmt_is_failing_i_think_this_is_the/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) and the [U.S.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrm243/jpmorgan_to_sell_13_billion_of_bonds_in_largest/) (more on this in /u/Captain_Omar 's [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrm243/jpmorgan_to_sell_13_billion_of_bonds_in_largest/)) --- With so much of the world's loan market tied up in this "LIBOR", why is it a big deal now? Well we know that the CFTC is the one establishing settlements for any rigging of game that may be taking place within interest rates. + +**Oh right, and the former chairman of the CFTC now works at Citadel was in charge of policing this for the last 4 years. In addition, what are the chances he's intertwined with the congress members who've received donations from Citadel do you think? Seems like this LIBOR thing might be a problem for certain parties?** + +&#x200B; + +Okay so something's up, what is **LIBOR** anyways? This leads us into Section 4. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**Section 4 --- LIBOR vs SOFR --- Global Financial Evolution** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +Take a breather here if you haven't already. This is a lot of information in digest and **LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offer Rate)** is not a light topic. Thank you /u/RegularJDOE1234 & /u/HCRDR on further research into this. + +&#x200B; + + **There is about $350 - 400 trillion (yes that is TRILLIONS with a T, about 4x the size of the global economy) tied up in it.** + +A short explanation of what **LIBOR** is: + +>" Libor is an average interest rate calculated through submissions of interest rates by major banks across the world. " + +IN 🦍 SPEAK, GRAB YOUR 🖍's IT'S TIME GO TO🏫🎒. Interest is something all of us have dealt with in one fashion or another. Credit card payments, mortgages, student loans. The concept is all the same. You borrow money from the bank, and they tell you that you'll be paying a fee monthly (known as the interest rate) on top of the money you've loaned out from them. On top of this you get told what your interest will be ahead of time (forward looking interest rate) so you know what to expect your bill to be. + +Now the reason **LIBOR** is a problem is that it can easily be gamed and has been for quite some time. It also doesn't adjust for another crazy shit that might happen until the next payment period. If the economy crashes in that time frame and you're still paying a super low interest rate because of a contractual agreement, the banks lose BIG TIME. Directly from Wikipedia on the "[LIBOR Scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal)": + +>*" The scandal arose when it was discovered that banks were falsely inflating or deflating their rates so as to profit from trades, or to give the impression that they were more creditworthy than they were.*[*\[3\]*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal#cite_note-3) *Libor underpins approximately $350 trillion in* [*derivatives*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_(finance)) +> +> *The banks are supposed to submit the actual* [*interest rates*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interest_rate) *they are paying, or would expect to pay, for borrowing from other banks. The Libor is supposed to be the total assessment of the health of the financial system because if the banks being polled feel confident about the state of things, they report a low number and if the member banks feel a low degree of confidence in the financial system, they report a higher interest rate number."* + +REMEMBER THIS, the interest rate drops to low percentages when the market is confident or is looking to inject growth (like how it is now); the inverse happens when the market is fearful (higher rate = higher cost of borrowing money usually). This is like letting your buddy Good Guy Greg borrow 20 bucks versus your half-cousin twice removed, Scumbag Steve. + + The banks here would deliberately rig the interest rates between each other in order to get massive loans to profit from (they basically are making themselves appear like Good Guy Greg to everyone around them, when in reality they're stealing your wallet out your back pocket). **THE LIBOR SYSTEM IS WHAT ALLOWS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN**. As it turns out, a lot of people are fed up with this and want see it changed for good reason as seen below... + +&#x200B; + +**WORTH NOTING:** + +**LIBOR was a massive playing piece involved in the 2008 financial crises, this quote is directly from the congressional hearing on the matter:** + +>*"* ***The LIBOR’s self-reporting structure has created opportunities for individuals or institutions to manipulate or falsify data****. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, upon discovering a widespread culture of LIBOR manipulation built around industry relationships, U.S. and U.K. regulators settled with various banking institutions, including some of the world’s largest banks such as Barclays,* ***JP Morgan Chase****, Citigroup, and* ***UBS*** *over allegations that these institutions manipulated the* ***LIBOR*** *by* ***pressuring their colleagues to report artificially low or artificially high interest rates in order to manufacture trading opportunities. "*** + +Talk about the timing of **Gary Gensler** coming back into the picture right? One of the few people in the **SEC** who directly dealt with this type of scenario before. + +&#x200B; + +**FEAR NOT, HERE COMES THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM** + +&#x200B; + +Introducing **SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate**)!!!!! This is a MASSIVE 200 trillion dollar transition that will take place over the next few years. + +**OH and it almost imploded the entire fucking market the first time it was attempted to be implemented back in 2019** [https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm) + +https://preview.redd.it/1iys92uydlt61.png?width=847&format=png&auto=webp&s=b665c6a6ad3e31a2a17d00213b39aa8c9b41b61b + +&#x200B; + +And it looks like they just had a hearing on this evolution just YESTERDAY. + +[https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=igmJ-SFvyRU two hours worth of content, watch at your own risk](https://preview.redd.it/o95qmiuehlt61.png?width=1321&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ec410ff456ef126517f16496a1d5efef3a8289b) + +I watched them talking about it live, I would be lying if I told you it was a thrilling piece of entertainment. Watch it if you're really curious and want to get a deeper understanding of what's at stake. + +&#x200B; + +What this means is SOFR will change how interest rates are calculated. + +Yet again in a very simple explanation: if **Libor** is "forward-looking" meaning you get an interest rate ahead of time (you know exactly what your payment will be) - **SOFR** is the inverse, meaning it's "backward-looking". + +**WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT BANKS AND OTHER PARTICIPANTS WILL NOT KNOW WHAT THEIR MONTHLY PAYMENT FOR THEIR LOAN WILL BE(for example) UNTIL THE DAY OF PAYMENT (**From reading I believe it's about 5 days prior, I could be wrong)**. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE RATE THEY WILL HAVE TO PAY FLUCTUATES ON A DAILY BASIS. THIS DAILY FLUCTUATION WILL BE BASED OFF THE** [DAILY TRESURY YIELD RATE](https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield). This transition is expected to be completed by 2023, however no new contracts can be written under Libor as of... [MARCH 31ST, 2021.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgb1m6/citadel_2019_but_still_leaves_the_bread_crumbs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +&#x200B; + +To illustrate this point, the image below shows how much more "variable" (dynamic) the rate (in blue) will be, versus the fixed variant (in red) of it we see today. + +https://preview.redd.it/6m5o0b3oflt61.png?width=809&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c270866374c63e568ae0f310b56dd660522e6f9 + +This solves two things: + +1. If the market fluctuates in the time that a loan was given, the banks will not be put into a vulnerable position nor profit from it. Think of this as a "we ride together, we die together" type of scenario. They'll be impacted as much as any of us should the market take a down turn or rise. +2. The rates can no longer be gamed as easily because they're no longer based off self-report data, but rather the rate of the daily treasury yield on the market. + +Now here's the thing, we should've already started transitioning to this new system over quite some time. The fed wanted all the new loans being given out in the last year to be already implemented through SOFR, but instead the banks chose to STILL tie them to **Libor**. But wait a minute some of these are 3-year, 5-year loans; but **Libor** will only be around for another 2 years. Sounds like it can be another problem in the making and the banks don't want to face reality yet. **Knowing this it's not surprising they posted such great earnings right? Easy to make the picture look pretty when it's full of shit.** + +Watch about 45 seconds of this clip for concerns coming straight from **Grant Thornton UK** on the matter. + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAf6Bk5szIk&t=1245s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAf6Bk5szIk&t=1245s) + +&#x200B; + +HERE'S THE REASON MANY ARE TERRIFIED AT WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR THE MARKET: + +>*"I think it's fair to say that people like myself are getting a bit of an odd feeling in the gut about what is going on about some of these books - so to drive transparency there, the cyclical quarterly testing on impairments and cogence the data will be out in June, and I think the views we have are that some of the borrowers will fail." --- Grant Thornton UK Advisor \[Source:* [*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAf6Bk5szIk&t=1553s*](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAf6Bk5szIk&t=1553s)*\]* + +&#x200B; + +LONG STORY SHORT; THEY'RE WORRIED THAT WHEN BANKS AND BUSINESSES ARE FORCED TO PAY THE ACTUAL RATES OF THE MARKET (and not their made up ones) BECAUSE OF THE LIBOR -> SOFR TRANSITION, THAT THEY WILL NOT HAVE THE CASH ON HAND TO MEET THE **SOFR** REQUIREMENTS AND RUN INTO SERIOUS FUCKING TROUBLE. THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED ALREADY IN 2019. + +**NOT ONLY THIS, THE PEOPLE WHO BORROWED MONEY WILL BE STRESS TESTED ON A REGULAR BASIS (think monthly/quarterly) TO SEE IF THEY ACTUALLY CAN SUPPORT A HIGHER INTEREST RATE SHOULD THE MARKET GO TO SHIT. Once again no new contracts can be written under Libor as of...** [MARCH 31ST, 2021.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgb1m6/citadel_2019_but_still_leaves_the_bread_crumbs/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +**YOU WILL NOW SEE THE MARKET STARTING TO DELEVERAGE THEIR LOANS IN ORDER TO HAVE MORE CASH ON HANDS TO MEET THESE SOFR REQUIREMENTS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. THIS EXPLAINS WHY** [JPMORGAN AND OTHERS ARE SELLING BONDS AFTER 'STELLAR' EARNINGS](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/jpmorgan-to-sell-13-billion-of-bonds-in-largest-bank-sale-ever) **(once again still in a Libor system). This would also explain why BlackRock is the heaviest in cash they've ever been. The reintroduction of Gary Gensler during this timeframe, is a concerning one as he dealt with the 2008 crash once before which involved LIBOR.** + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Bank of America just posted a 15 billion dollar sale of bonds couple of hours ago; the dominos are starting to fall [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/bofa-to-set-record-for-largest-bank-bond-sale-at-15-billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/bofa-to-set-record-for-largest-bank-bond-sale-at-15-billion) + +&#x200B; + +**Now the question becomes, who's already caught in the web?** + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**FINAL SECTION --- THE GREAT TRAP** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +&#x200B; + +**My Opinion: I believe that many of the "bad" hedge funds, took on massive risks with expectations that the 7rump administration would get re-elected and prolong the need for transitioning to SOFR and others (involving the former SEC + CFTC chairmen). This would give them ample amount of time to make profits on the companies (and banks?) they bankrupt.** + +It appears to me that they didn't properly hedge their risk for any other outcome. + +Now lets have a look at who might have abused the low interest rates fabricated by banks, and provided collateral with rehypothecated assets? + +Well a good place to start looking is to see who's grown the most in the last year. + +we have a pretty good starting point as we've seen in /u/yosaso's post about the [war to control the DTCC](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mouj57/there_is_a_war_to_control_the_dtcc_and_gme_is_the/guoqi9g/?context=3): (I'm just renaming these teams for the sake of vulgarity, and adding some names) + + + +>**TEAM Good Guys** +> +>JP Morgan, BOA, Morgan Stanley, State Street, Vanguard, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs +> +>**TEAM Bad Guys** +> +>Citadel, Virtu, Citi, Susquehanna, Melvin, Apollo +> +>**TEAM UNKNOWN** +> +>BNY Mellon - 2 + +&#x200B; + +Here are the good guys, seems like pretty stable growth since last year right roughly returning to where they were before + +https://preview.redd.it/rjpdxjm84mt61.png?width=1407&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d1541144ccf2a82a72f3c6224c2960f564aee8 + +&#x200B; + +**NOW HERE ARE THE BAD GUYS. WHOA THEY JUST RIPPED OVER THE LAST YEAR.** + +[WOW WHAT GROWTH!](https://preview.redd.it/oylkww7v4mt61.png?width=1401&format=png&auto=webp&s=999644f9899dac07da6f3bca164772eed745a0d0) + +Growth over the last 4 quarters: + +Good Guys: + +|Company|Growth Since Q1 2020| +|:-|:-| +|State Street|42.8%| +|Vanguard|46.9%| +|BlackRock|53.3%| + +&#x200B; + +Bad Guys: + +|Company|Growth Since Q1 2020| +|:-|:-| +|Apollo|78.4%| +|Melvin|80.5%| +|Susquehanna|94.8%| + +&#x200B; + +Now we plug in /u/atobitt 's ["Everything Short"](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) thesis here. I believe Hedge Funds have been taking advantage of the low interest rates that are being gamed. They decide they're going to take this to a whole new extreme through rehypothecation and the repo market. + +MY OPINION: THIS IS MONEY THEY'RE NEVER GOING TO BE ABLE TO PAY BACK. CITADEL AND FRIENDS ASPIRED TO REACH THE GRAND SIZE THAT THE LIKES OF BLACKROCK AND VANGUARD ARE THROUGH ANY MEANS NECESSARY. I BELIEVE THEY'VE TAKEN ON MASSIVE RISK AND ARE NOW BEING CLOSED IN ON BY THE DTCC + THE SEC WITH THE SOFR ADJUSTMENT. + +THEY'VE PUT MULTIPLE BANKS AT HUGE RISK A BLOWING UP ON FAKE BONDS --- IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SOFR DROPS THE BOMB ON THEM. I believe this is the reason why BlackRock and Co have been pushing for "max pain" each week; this is so that it makes it impossible to keep up with SOFR interest rate requirements. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +As time progresses I believe we will see more evidence of multiple parties attempting to deleverage their positions before 2023. Coincidentally **GameStop** has just paid off all their debt that was due that exact year. + +So this becomes a two pronged problem; + +1. Assets are being rehypothecated which are being used as collateral +2. Banks are providing absurd interest rates off the old LIBOR system instead of SOFR; this has resulted in the taking on a position that will be extremely difficult to get out of. + +As we can see they're fighting against these changes through politics, but it appears they've brought in **Gary Gensler** to kick some ass. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: DIAMOND HANDS APES. 💎✋ + +&#x200B; + +***NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE*** +Because I provided you all with two plays last week that did really well ($CHMA, $BEST) + +I thought I'd provided you with one that I think has the potential to be the best of them all! + +* THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DD BEFORE PURCHASING SHARES OF ANY STOCK * + +# Zosano Pharma Corp. + +# $ZSAN on NASDAQ + +EDIT: I forgot to include analyst Price Target + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ts80mpji0ag61.png?width=2100&format=png&auto=webp&s=790ad9859e77dd92cb2b7bb053dc3d1c87abda21 + +What is ZSAN? + +Zosano Pharma is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company enabling the systemic administration of therapeutics and other bioactive molecules to patients using our proprietary intracutaneous microneedle patch system. We have pioneered a novel paradigm for delivering molecules typically administered parenterally, where the inconvenience and pain associated with subcutaneous, intravenous or other complex administrations present barriers to compliance. Our strengths lie in our diverse team of industry veterans with proven drug and device development and significant commercialization experience. + +# Their staple product: + +# Intracutaneous Microneedle System + +https://preview.redd.it/1abki54az9g61.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a24505aa34c6cbfd9e0c94beb28bbd05ec2607f + +## What is the intracutaneous microneedle system? + +The system is a single-entity combination product, which comprises a reusable applicator and a microneedle array containing patch, for intracutaneous drug delivery allowing rapid absorption into the bloodstream. The microneedle array patch is applied to the skin using a ready to use and reusable handheld applicator. + +Each microneedle array patch is individually packaged and stored at room temperature.  + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8cp3dqfbz9g61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=f153983c0a86a21708235e87cbb191d94f50a1ab + +## + +https://preview.redd.it/4of9mx2ez9g61.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c38d57a7d7b7f7cd96a9b39ae5f2ee1b782195e + +## How does it work? + +An array of close to two thousand drug-coated titanium microneedles is mounted on the skin-facing surface of a backing that resembles an adhesive bandage. The length of each individual microneedle is about 3 times the width of a human hair.  + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4r1zrs3fz9g61.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&s=82b68d6f509b02cb63392fd9a1c43ef0c3de1d14 + +When the microneedle patch is applied, the microneedles penetrate the outermost layer of the epidermis (stratum corneum). The shallow depth of penetration limits the likelihood of stimulating sensory nerve endings and causing pain. Interstitial fluid in the skin reconstitutes the drug and makes it available for rapid absorption into the bloodstream. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jiz7h54gz9g61.png?width=698&format=png&auto=webp&s=d708915bf29789dc5ea4cef6f28061637d176133 + +## What are the advantages of intracutaneous delivery? + +## Rapid Systemic Delivery without the Needle + +There are instances where a drug cannot or should not be administered orally. For example, some drugs have poor oral bioavailability. In other cases, patients may not be able to tolerate an orally administered drug. In addition, intestinal absorption following oral delivery can be slow, delaying the beneficial effects of a drug. + +Intracutaneous delivery allows systemic drug delivery without the use of a hypodermic needle. In clinical studies, less than 10% of patients reported any pain at the application site. Pharmacokinetic analysis demonstrated \~ 3-times faster absorption of zolmitriptan using our system compared with orally administered zolmitriptan. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5fp5j64hz9g61.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa4c9b827d928a8288fd61d2ebd5f19ecbc24088 + +They're currently using this technology on a soon-to-be FDA approved Migrane treatment. + +But here's the kicker, and why I think this stock has the potential to 10x... + +They recently announced they're looking for a partner to use this amazing technology to help administer the COVID vaccine, at home. + +&#x200B; + +[From their website](https://preview.redd.it/gad7wgvuz9g61.png?width=1604&format=png&auto=webp&s=60ea24b1b866feb2ee5bfe7d11743bb4bbc8114e) + +&#x200B; + +[From their website](https://preview.redd.it/rdr0bycxz9g61.png?width=1783&format=png&auto=webp&s=665af0733d6782f1920ebb7007953acd28ccdf47) + +Overall, I think this stock has major potential to grow, with or without the COVID vaccine. +I’ve got around $700k and wanting to buy more real estate. My primary residence is paid off, and I’m happy with it. + +I’m considering buying two starter homes for $350k each in my local market, or maybe getting some mortgages and buying a couple more. +There is a lot of discussion regarding advisors in this sub reddit. There is a lot of good information and bad information. + +I want to give an opportunity for anyone to get answers "straight from the horses mouth" and have an honest conversation about what types of advisors there are, what they do, how they make money etc. + +Personally, I am part of an RIA (Registered Investment Advisory) were we focus on business owners and institutional capital. + +Ask away and don't hold back! + +&#x200B; + +\*Mods - I am happy to verify if need be! + + +**EDIT - WOW, I never imagined this thread would blow up like it did. I will keep trying to work through the comments. I hope this helped! +Welcome to the ETH Daily Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here. Please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or support issues. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior **should be reported** and redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To visit this thread, [follow this link](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +* For newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum, you can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* **[EXPERIMENTAL]** - To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Similar to many (or some) of you, starting with a lower-middle family. I never have to worry about food on the dinner table, but I basically need to support myself on everything else. For example, got a part-time job and some scholarships to finish college and graduate school. + +Hardship aside. When I look back at the last 20 years. + +* I remembered my first car (a brand new Toyota); my GF helped me 20% with her saving. (now my wife) +* I remembered the first six-figure job. +* I remembered I had to bite my teeth to deal with my asshole boss and eventually negotiate a severance package. +* I remembered my premium-economy flight (and my first business class flight). +* I remembered the first time I made 7-figure a year. +* (I can go on and on)... + +So much joy is attached to these milestones. + +The best joy often comes after an odyssey or some hardship (and fighting). I had to give myself pep talks all the time. I have mental toughness and never felt burnt out (for more than one night) mostly because burnt out is not an option for me -- I have to pull myself out since my family needs me to put bread on the table. Like many of you, I hate corporate BS but I'm good at it because I have to. This learning does not come easy :) + +Right now I'm content: 4.5M net worth; early 40s. Based on my RSU vesting, I am on schedule to hit my 7M goals in two years. 7 figure comp -- reaping my peak earning years and then I'm going to RE. I'm targeting the age 45 ([the ideal age by coincident?](https://www.financialsamurai.com/ideal-age-to-retire/)) Or probably coast 1 more year and retire at 46. + +Back to my question, what I learn in my life: **Constraints lead to endurance. Endurance leads to disciplines. Disciplines lead to success.** + +Disciplines like working hard, delaying gratification, saving more, investing early, and planning for the black swan event in life had made me a FatFirer, starting from a lower-middle-class family. All the difficult times made me who am I today. + +I'm so worried that my kids grow up with too much that they are now unable to deal with headwinds or setbacks. They went to the best private schools in town, with private tutors/coaches whenever they need help. They travel in business classes and stay in 4+ star hotels all the time. + +When they are young, I'll be happy to pay for their education or even help by lending them some downpayment (not all of the downpayment). Maybe I create a trust which will only cover their medical bill, insurance, etc. just in case life throws them a super-curve ball. Otherwise, I want to tell my kiddo: "you are on your own. Life is a game. Enjoy the game." (I'm always happy to be a coach and an advisor for free.) + +After all, most lottery winners do not end well. (I see such a big windfall like a "private" lottery.) + +Curious to learn your thought. Do you plan to leave your kids little to nothing? Or this is probably a stupid idea? For those who want to leave a fair chunk or more (Say, >2.5M, for example), what're your reasons? + +( I feel that giving my kids, once becoming an adult, a purpose to fight may help them more than the freedom to pursue anything they want because basic needs are satisfied, i.e. 4% from 2.5M) + +Note: **I'm not encouraging giving kids hardship.** I meant (1) to set an expectation of not having a windfall when I pass away, (2) to set an expectation that I will not pay your bills once you finish graduate school, and (3) if you need help, we can discuss how I can assist but I won't just give you money to walk away from a problem -- my goal is to teach you how to fish, not to give you a fish, especially if you are a well-educated adult. + +\--------- + +(Update ) + +After reading about 300-350 comments (thank you), I change my belief: I lean to support my kids with a leanFIRE-equivalent monthly distribution through a trust (in case I die early) or regular gifts (if I'm around). I'll strongly encourage them to use the money to take risks, e.g. entrepreneurship, or to pursue a noble cause, e.g. doctors without borders, or at least, to use the money wisely such that they can pursue a fatFIRE journey more easily. + +Since money has been around for thousands of years, why don’t the majority of people have wealth that has built up over many generations and accumulated compounded returns? + +Anecdotally, The most inheritance I’ve ever gotten from a family member is about $100, from my great grandmother that passed away as a kid. I got nothing from my other grandparents that passed away so far and I don’t expect to get anything besides heirlooms from the remainder. + +I might get a decent amount of money from my parents when they pass someday but nothing too spectacular. + +My family is mostly middle class. One of my parents makes six figures and the other makes 5 figures. But from the info I’ve gathered and been let on to, they’ll probably have just enough saved to retire in their mid sixties and live out a standard retirement with most savings having been used by the end. + +Personally, if all goes according to plan, I expect to build up at least a decent amount of wealth in my lifetime and be able to pass on most of it to the next generation. This will hopefully set them up to be FI pretty early and they can build on this by continuing to build on the principal of this wealth before beginning to use it. My hope is that it can be passed down many generations with each generation adding some to it before using it. + +But, I’m starting to wonder if that would even happen since it hasn’t happened to date in my family’s history and I don’t see it happening in most other ordinary families despite having the chance for many many generations to set this up. + +Why haven’t a majority of families been able to build wealth despite money being around for so long? +Are there any countries that tie minimum wage to living costs or the inflation rate? We say “a citizen’s time is worth no less than $X/hr” and then that value slowly depreciates over time until a new law is passed. +I've had an assistant for over ten years. He has a pre-paid card for various things I get him to pay for, a Google Doc to record them in and a Dropbox to put receipts into. The expenses are personal, so aren't reconciled as part of my business accounts - the spreadsheet is for me to keep track. I recently found that last month he spent about a thousand pounds off that card on a gambling app, and when I looked further back, he's been expensing small lunches for years without telling me or putting receipts in the spreadsheet. + +He's a good guy, kind hearted. He has always genuinely cares about me and my family, did things to make our lives better and easier, was there whenever we needed him for anything, day or night. But he does "take the piss" a bit in general, sometimes takes long breaks in the middle of the day, tries to go home early, etc, even though he is well paid. If he can get away with something he will basically. So to him this was just pushing a bit of boundaries (other than the recent gambling addiction). When he realised that it was theft and fraud, he broke down in absolute tears. He is unlikely to get a job like this again. + +I'm struggling because on the one hand I can't see how I can let him keep working for me after a large recent theft and a clear pattern of repeated small thefts over the years. But on the other hand he is horrified now that he realises what he's done, he is begging for forgiveness, and I know he never meant anything malicious to me. + +Has anyone else had an experience like this and found a way to rebuild trust and keep them on? + +Update - wow, posted, went to sleep, woke up to 200 responses. Thank you everyone, especially those who sent good wishes, it is a tough situation as he's basically been pretty much a family member for a decade. But it's very clear based on the collective responses that actions speak louder than words, that gambling addiction spirals, that trust will be impossible to rebuild. +A classic example would be self driving cars. People talk about how the advancement of self driving cars will eventually put all truck drivers out of work. Which of course would be a negative thing for the drivers, at least in the short term. But wouldn’t the reduced cost of transporting things benefit everyone. Shouldn’t most goods that require shipping become slightly cheaper? + +An economy, to me, is where you produce goods or services for society. And in exchange, you get to receive back other goods or services equal in value to what you put in. So it seems like any time we can get a machine to produce goods/services, it would completely beneficial to society. Since the machine doesn’t take anything out, it only puts in to the economy. + +I’m not an economics major or anything, just wanted to see what is right/wrong with my thinking. +I already posted this on 2 other subreddits and everyone has been of great help since I was keeping this to myself but the stress was too much and I wanted to talk to someone. +And as someone who is an avid looker here on Povertyfinance, I wanted to hear your advice. + +Long story short, I have an Aerospace Engineering degree with 1 year experience with the current company I work at. I started in production not working as an engineer but as a production employee, then moved to another position as a technician assistant operating HAAS machines, then to the office to work in the quality department as an administrator. +So far my hourly rate is $13.50 per hour. I haven't had a raise in a year or when I was moving up positions. I understand that it's really low for engineers but I had to take that offer last year because I had no experience. +The company where I work at is currently having some slowdown in production but will eventually be more busy in the upcoming months. +Should I wait a couple of months more for things to start picking up again or should I do it now? Not sure when it's the right time to do it since it's my first job out of college as an engineer. I have been given more responsibilities around the office as people have seen that I have the skills to do whatever they put me to do + +I currently live in California and not working as an Aerospace engineer but as a Quality administrator. + + +I love what I'm doing and my colleagues are awesome. Just the pay is what is really killing me since everything in California, especially in Orange County is really expensive and it's really frustrating and depressing. I can't relocate because I need to help my family. I'm single but I'm helping my sister who is a college student and parents who are of old age. + +Edit: Im single currently live in California with an Aerospace Engineering degree. Currently not working as an Aerospace engineer but as a Quality administrator making $13.50 per hour. Best time to ask for a raise? + +Edit: thank you to everyone who took the time to read my post and for your feedback. There was a lot of positive feedback and I am trying as fast as I can to reply to your messages. Thank you so much and I will keep you guys updated! :) +Anything RE related is devolving into a vent and blame session rather than a discussion of investing. + +This is an investor sub and RE topics get very little genuine investing discussion. I get it- I’m a millennial too and know things are rough for many. + +This will definitely be unpopular….cue the angry posts! +Hi, folks! I'm Noah Smith, your friendly neighborhood econ blogger. I on medical leave from Bloomberg, but I write [a Substack called Noahpinion](https://noahpinion.substack.com/) that has done pretty well! I also have a (fairly silly) [Twitter account](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776)! Previously I was briefly a finance prof at Stony Brook, and before that I did my PhD at the University of Michigan. Here is proof that it's really me: + +[https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776) + +So drop by at 10 AM Pacific / 2 PM Eastern today and ask me about anything you like -- economics, politics, rabbits, anime, whatever. ;-) + +&#x200B; + +OK, AMA is done! Thanks so much, folks! +Hi, folks! I'm Noah Smith, your friendly neighborhood econ blogger. I on medical leave from Bloomberg, but I write [a Substack called Noahpinion](https://noahpinion.substack.com/) that has done pretty well! I also have a (fairly silly) [Twitter account](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776)! Previously I was briefly a finance prof at Stony Brook, and before that I did my PhD at the University of Michigan. Here is proof that it's really me: + +[https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776](https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1546889860392267776) + +So drop by at 10 AM Pacific / 2 PM Eastern today and ask me about anything you like -- economics, politics, rabbits, anime, whatever. ;-) + +&#x200B; + +OK, AMA is done! Thanks so much, folks! +I did have a phone consultation with a financial counselor in 2015 to get some basic advice because I was extremely stressed, not eating because I was afraid of spending money, not sleeping very well because I was just so filled with anxiety, it was a terrible time. My financial counselor did tell me (which seems to go without saying, but at the time I needed to hear it because I was so stressed I was not thinking clearly) that I needed to still eat properly, that not eating is not an ok way to pay off debt and that I needed to do a budget and cut out anything that wasn't a necessity and look for cheaper options for food/clothes/toiletries etc, have some little emergency fund and then throw all the extra leftover money at the debt. + +So I bought most everything at the dollar store (food, cleaning supplies, water, toiletries), clothes I bought at Target. I drove to work and back and walked everywhere else. + +Even during this time, I did put something, even if it was small, into savings so that I could continue to build that emergency fund. Every time I got paid, I would put SOMETHING into savings, even if it was only $5. + +I moved all my debt to an interest free credit card (most creditors will have a promotional 0% APR for 12 months deal). When the promotion was about to end, I moved the balance to another interest free card. + +Any time I got "extra" money (tax refund, birthday/Christmas money, cashback from credit card, the stimulus check we got a few months back, etc) I put a third of it (at least) toward my debt and a third into savings. Even if my grandma sent me $20 in a birthday card, I would put at least $6 toward my debt and $6 in savings. Oh, and I put my money in a high interest savings account (relatively high,around 0.5%). + + And yes I still did use a credit card to pay for things, I picked a cashback credit card and used it like a debit card. I would never buy anything that I didn't have the money for in my checking account. And I would pay it immediately after using the credit card. For example, if I spent $35 at the grocery store, I would use my credit card then immediately pay off the $35 balance with my checking account. And I mean right when I got home, that day. + +I chipped away and chipped away at it. Eventually I got it down to just under $6k. By that time (today) I had built up enough in savings that was able to just pay that $6k off. I know not everyone would be in that position to just have $6k+ in savings, in which case, I would simply keep chipping as and chipping away at it, the next big payment toward it would have been 1/3 of my tax refund. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 8192 days + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) + + +Time to gather around the campfire for the first installation of Uncle Baxter’s Real Estate Finance 101. After observing the subreddit for some time now I feel that my background and experience can be useful for the community. I hope this post can serve as a tool, or foundation of knowledge, for eager investors who are just starting off. + +In today’s fireside chat we will cover the basics of real estate investing finance on multifamily properties. Including, but not limited to, a deep dive into the pro forma as well as various key asset and market metrics. May even dabble in a hypothetical deal… + +What is the ultimately goal of real estate investing? Rather, what is your goal of real estate investing? Understanding and answering this question honestly is the first step, as this answer will determine your business strategy. A multimillionaire dentist with a dental practice grossing $3MM annually who is looking for asset diversification will have a much different strategy than a recently graduated college student making $60,000 who is looking for long term wealth creation. + +Let’s first look at the variety of multifamily properties. + +Multifamily properties are generally broken down into four categories: + +* · Class A + * Newly built product with first class amenities and finishes + * 3%-7% vacancy (time it’s not rented) with no short-term major capital improvements +* Class B + * Built within the last 20 years with good amenities and ok finishes + * 10% vacancy with some short-term major capital improvements +* Class C + * “Working class” product built within the last 30 years with dated amenities and finishes + * 10%-15% vacancy with near-term major capital improvements +* Class D + * Dilapidated product over 30 years old with no amenities and worn finished + * 10%-15% vacancy with immediate major capital improvements + +Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of the Dentist from above for a moment. We have already created wealth and are looking for an alternative asset to diversify into. Where do we go? Often, we are looking for a turnkey (ready for immediate use) Class A asset that will require no true knowledge of real estate that can kick off 4-8% a year. Where the recently graduated college student is hungrier for wealth creation and will take on the additional risk of lightly rehabilitating the Class B or Class C asset for a higher return. + +Let this serve as an ideological framework, however, for matters of today’s lesson, let’s assume that we are looking for wealth creation. Let’s say that a long-lost cousin, Cousin Cornelius, comes to you out of the blue with a home run real estate deal that will only cost you $300,000. Should you blindly agree and purchase it immediately? Probably not. What do you need to understand further in order to justify that purchase price? + +Let’s break down Cousin Cornelius’ home run deal. Some important facts to consider: + +* The asset is a Class B quad-plex in a well-known area in the market +* The units in the asset are under market in terms of finishes and appliances +* The units are currently rented for $900 each +* The market rents for similar more slightly upgraded units are $1,100 +* The cost to upgrade the units to market are $5,000 per unit and will take a month to renovate + +So where do you begin? First and foremost, let’s understand the revenues this asset is producing. Revenues come from the units that are rented; 4 units x $900 = $3,600 per month or $43,200 per year. This is our Gross Income and in a perfect world, what we would take home every year. Unfortunately, the world sucks and takes most, if not everything from you, but I digress. If a tenant moves out or does not renew the lease, how long will it take to fill that unit? If the unit doesn’t fill, what is the cost associated with that? The cost will be 100% to you and it is in the form of lost rent. This is called our vacancy expense, which we will assume conservatively at 15% of our Gross Income. This means that we will not have a tenant in any given unit, on average, 15% of the time. We will deduct this from our Gross Income: $43,200 less $6,480 = $36,720. This is our Effective Gross Income. + +Now, each asset has unique characteristics and qualities that drive operating expenses. This particular property has an unruly lawn that needs mowing, as well as property taxes, property insurance, water & sewer expenses, garbage removal, and general cleaning… bringing our annual operating expenses to $12,852. Furthermore, we have no intention of organizing and maintaining this property ourselves, so we are going to hire a property manager, Jose, who charges a flat 10% fee of Gross Income: $4,320. From our Effective Gross Income of $36,720 we now deduct $12,852 in operating expenses and $4,320 in property management fees, leaving us with $19,548. This is our Net Operating Income. + +From our Net Operating Income, we can now derive one of the most important metrics in Multifamily Investing, the Capitalization Rate. The Capitalization Rate, or Cap Rate, is a measure of the rate of return generated on an investment property (and risk… but that’s for another post). + +Cap Rate = Net Operating Income / Purchase Price + +Our Net Operating Income is $19,548 and our purchase price is $300,000, giving us an implied cap rate of 6.51%. Why is this important? Cap rates don’t really mean all that much by themselves, but they are a useful tool for in-market asset comparisons. For instance, if the exact same house with the exact same financial situation was next door for sale for a price of $275,000, an implied cap rate of 7.11%, would it be a good investment? Well, we don’t yet know if it would be a good investment, but we do know it would be a better investment than purchasing the same asset for $300,000. You can apply Cap Rates to Net Operating Income to give a rough purchase price, conversely, you can apply a Cap Rate to a purchase price to understand an asset’s Net Operating Income. + +We can’t forget that once a decade we will need to replace the roof, or boiler, or floors, or electrical wiring, or driveway, or literally anything major in the house. This is separate and apart from general operating expenses. There are major expenses associated with these types of improvements, which are called Capital Improvements. Typically, 10% of an asset’s Net Operating Income should be set aside to cover these types of improvements. In this case, $1,954 should be withheld leaving us with $17,593 in annual cash flow to take home to our piggy banks. Without any leverage (debt) we are taking home $17,593 a year on an investment of $300,000, giving us an unleveraged 5.86% Cash on Cash return (Cash Flow / Purchase Price). Meh, pretty lousy if you ask me. But wait. The units can be renovated, and we can command a higher rent from those units with the renovation…. + +For an additional $5,000 per unit, or $20,000, we can increase our monthly per unit rent to $1,100. This brings our Gross Income to $52,800, our vacancy loss to $7,920, and our Effective Gross Income to $44,880. Our expenses of $12,852 won’t change, though, our property management fee, which follows Gross Income, increases to $5,280. Our Net Operating Income has now increased to $26,748. Saving 10% for capital expenditures, we can now take home $24,073 in annual cash flow. However, our cost basis (purchase price + improvements) has also increased, from $300,000 to $320,000 and our unleveraged Cash on Cash return is now 7.52%, up from 5.86%. + +Let’s revisit the initial question I posed before, what is your goal of real estate investing? From the perspective of the recently graduated college student who is looking for wealth creation, I’m going to go tell Cousin Cornelius to go kick rocks. No way in hell would I purchase this quadplex in need of $20,000 in rehab when I can park my money in an index fund and get a similar return in the stock market. Maybe if I could pick this property up for 10% less, but even then, the profit margin may be too thin for this. From the perspective of the Dentist, this deal may be too small and too labor intensive and may not be worth their time and money. Different strokes for different folks, but this deal won’t really appeal to either of our fictional alter personalities. + +I hope this can be a good starting point for how to go about looking at deals and a preliminary understanding of the finance behind successful real estate investing. Next time I will incorporate in the concept of leverage and how it can be used to better or worsen the returns from this investment opportunity. You may just want to keep Cousin Cornelius on speed dial… + +Until next time, + +Uncle Baxter +Over the last month I've been working on a tool to scrape, store and analyze posts. You can check the code [here](https://github.com/GonVas/tickerrain). + +It works by using three processes, one to asynchronous get posts from different subreddits (you can specify them in a txt file) and stores them in a Redis DB. +Another process uses Pandas to conduct the analysis of the posts, it does sentimental analysis (done using Spacy, more specifically VADER), counts the total mentions and also the score of the posts. + +Finally the web server is another process, using Flask, that displays the results. It shows the latest post being processed, showing its entities, tickers and sentiment. Its really simple and the design is basic. Then at the end of the page it shows three graphs of the most mentioned stocks, with one for the latest day, another for 3 days and finally for a week. + +&#x200B; + +[Heres a preview ](https://preview.redd.it/wwrrhkcjuxg61.png?width=1428&format=png&auto=webp&s=72385c85e864da8194a7b936c6d85847216ea7e9) + +I also spun up a digital ocean instance to host it and used a free domain [http://tickerrain.tk/](http://tickerrain.tk/) (hope it doesn't crash) + +Tell me want you think and if you want more features (I have some planned). + + I know that programs about analyzing reddit posts are common, but they are either closed source or very basic, lacking interfaces or DBs, plus I thought about showing the process being done. + +You are free to do whatever you want with this, fork it, use it for your own strategies or anything. + +(I also know that the code isn't that great or optimized and that Redis isn't the best choice) +I made about 2 million after taxes on meme stonk calls in january and as of today I'm done working. I didn't quit earlier because teleworking wasn't bad but now that we have to go back into the office I decided to call it quits. It only took one day of commuting to realize how shitty it is that I used to be conditioned to wasting two hours of every weekday. + +My boss didn't believe me when I said I was done working until I said I'm not coming in after the 18th and if he doesn't want me to outprocess I won't. + +I don't have many plans going forward other than playing some games I've always wanted to get into. I've started an indoor garden and I've started reading books for enjoyment for the first time since high school. My biggest worry is that I will get bored and go find another job after a few years, but hopefully I can find some other cool stuff to do. + +As for what I'm going to do with my money, I'll just pay off my house (my only remaining debt) in full to bring my yearly expenses down to the 25-35k range. I'll slowly put most of it into an sp500 fund over the next 2-3 years. After digging into bonds I decided that I'd rather just have cash instead and use that to buy any major dips that come up. I want to keep my withdrawals in the 2-3% range since that seems to be best for making a nest egg last forever. + + +I'll probably do periodic updates since I imagine there are likely others like me who made a lot this year. + +PS: fuck health insurance costs. I shouldn't have to pay like $500 per month and have a 17k deductible for a two person household + +Edit: got a lot of questions about my positions. + +I cashed out my 401k of about 80k and went all in on gme calls far out of the money. I still have some gme shares but I don't count those as part of my current net worth and I'm holding like a proper ape. + +Edit 2: LOTS of people are commenting that I'll run out of money. While anything can happen, every study I've read came to the conclusion retirement funds are not expected to ever run out if someone only withdraws a few percent per year. The investment would be expected to actually outpace inflation and grow. + +Others have said that I'll be living on too little which I also don't agree with. I'm already living at these income levels since I've invested nearly all my spare income over the years (like the FI sub preaches). The only difference is now I don't have to go to work to exist anymore. + +Edit 3: +I paid all my taxes already, the two mil figure is after taxes. +I’m talking about all salaries, not just starting salary. If people don’t know what other jobs/positions are making doesn’t it prevent people from filling in market efficiencies? + +For example, if I knew that a web developer working for a nearby company was getting paid 10$ to make a website, I wouldn’t bat an eye. If he was making 1000$ and I believe I can do a better job than him, I might want to fill in that inefficiency and offer to build a better website for half the cost. But since In real life I don’t know how much the developer is charging, I would assume the exchange is fair and that there is no need for me to do anything. + +I understand that there is a bit of game theory at play and reasons for people to want to hide their salary. But assuming we were to implement a system forcing employers to disclose all salaries and compensation at all time, would the labor market be more efficient? +Saw a comment earlier from someone telling this guys 14 year daughter to max their IRA and stuff and then when she retires, she’ll be a millionaire. + +You also hear people now like graham Stephen talk about how you should drink less Starbucks coffee and eat less avocado toast so you can save that extra buck and put it in an index fund and in 30 years, you’ll be a millionaire. + +Anyone else think being a millionaire isn’t really a big thing anymore? When I was a kid, just imagining a house being worth a million dollars was insane. You’d have a mansion with a million. Now in the Bay Area, you might get a shack for a million. Even in the Midwest, a decent size house round 2000 sq ft is like 300k-400k. + + +According to smartasset’s [inflation projection calculator ](https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator) based on 2.57% annual inflation, $100 would be worth $212 in 30 years. So $1 million in 2050 would be worth $471k in today’s money. + +In that guys’d daughters example, if she’s 14 now and she wants to retire by 65 in 2071, $100 would be $357 by then so in reality, her “million” would be worth $280k in today’s money. + +If you were to “retire” then as a “millionaire, you’d had as much buying power of less than half a million in today’s money. And that’s only if inflation stays low. If you look at the late 1970’s and then 1980’s and also post WW2, inflation rate was in the double digits. +In my area there is a big apartment complex and that's pretty much the biometer for the rent charged. Earlier in the year (March) - 1 bedroom was going for $1800 and up and since the summer, the complex has been slowing dropping price and now one bedroom is going for $1400. I have one rental unit in the area. The tenant is currently paying $1750, but decided to move out at the end of Oct. It requires at least $1700 to cash flow positive. This is in the suburb of Philly. Wondering what you guys would recommend doing? Should I try to list it on par with the big apartment complex (aka lower rent) but then i would be cash flow negative for $300 a month. Pre-covid rent would be about $1200 so it is still up a bit. Curious if this is one off or does it also happen in your area? +From browsing this sub for the last couple of years, whenever there is a post asking for advice on what to do with a windfall etc, there have always been responses along the lines of: + +‘Bitcoin will be 100k by the end of the year’ +‘Stick it all in crypto you can’t go wrong’ + +To anyone witnessing the recent events, this is why people would say to only put in what you can afford to lose/a small percentage of your portfolio. + +Yes, of course you can get rich in Crypto and people have. But there’s also a number of people who would have gone in too heavy and now don’t have an easy way out. + +So next time there is another risky asset that people are pumping, use this a reminder as to why people say to limit your exposure! +This is a trap a lot of people fall into (myself included): just because it's a "good deal" doesn't mean you "saved" money by buying it, it's still money that you spent! + +This might be obvious to most people but it's a good reminder that pops up on here occasionally and has stopped me from making some dumb purchases on more than one occasion. Hopefully it helps someone on this Prime Day. +For example, last week there was an obvious pump and dump of a stock called nerds on site that was posted here. Everyday there’s some new micro cap That people latch on to. + +The formula is the same, inundate people with information even though most of it is irrelevant and not important e.g. names of managers and CEOs. Who cares about that? Most of it is to give the illusion of DD. I imagine it’s the same formula that people have been using since the 80s to pump and dump garbage stocks. + +The pumps and dumps usually coincide with trivial announcements To also give them legitimacy. + +I think this subreddit would be significantly better if those posts were filtered or micro cap posts blocked in general. This subreddit is filled with noobs who are easy fodder for pumpers and dumpers. It’s easy money from people that are just learning. + +The majority are going to lose people money, and for the most part I hardly consider it real investing. It’s more gambling and all of it should belong in pennystocks where there’s no illusion. +I'm curious because I'm wondering if its really resource or just insatiable greed that drives war, globalization, etc.. So here is a thought experiment. + +Say human are only 1/4 size of what we are and consume only 1/4 of our calories, same reproduction rate, and lifespan, do you think globalization, war and even our economy would 1) be similar 2) if so, do you think it would had expanded at the same rate? May be eventually we will still have those wars but just take much longer? How do you think our current economies will be like? +How is this related to investing? Well if the narrative does not make sense than the value of Jio Platforms and by extension RIL stock will not seem as rosy as what these PE firms are investing at. + +I am just amused how RIL has managed to rake in so much money during such an economic fiasco. All of this on the back of the Jio Platforms narrative or the "look, I'm a tech company, not a telecom company" narrative. Why are so many PE funds like General Atlantic, Vista Equity, Silver Lake etc cutting such big checks for Jio? These PE firms are filled with some of the most academically sound men and women who seem to be making a disastrous investment in my opinion. + +I will be the first to admit that Jio probably has been the single most dynamic, David taking on the Goliath type of story. I can't remember of a company entering an industry from scratch and going on to dominate the industry in a span of four years like Jio has dominated the telecom industry in India. But if you come to think of it, a lot of Jio's domination of conventional telecom in India is down to the basic core competencies of RIL. + +The first is enormous capital investment. RIL has been the only company that I feel has had the stomach to time and again undertake massive capital investments. From Jamnagar refinery to Reliance Retail and Jio. RIL has taken up enormous debts to undertake capital projects which few companies can undertake thanks to the sheer amount of money required to undertake these projects. And capital was something that was sourly missing in the Indian telecom scene. Airtel, Vodafone and Idea had created a cartel which was so indebted with the 3G auctions that they used to charge an insane 249/GB of 3G data. They were in no mood of investing in 4G and their plans were stupid. What would be the utility of using 33MB of 3G data per day for 249Rs per month? Airtel, Vodafone and Idea were just milking the users without any tangible benefit. + +In comes RIL with its dollars and a kick-ass 4G network which covered all of India and Jio was willing to give out free data for like half a year. If I were to tell you that there was a bullet train that was offering free rides and your conventional Rajdhani was charging you 600 for one stop to the next, which one would you choose? I think the answer is simple here. + +Then comes RIL's next core competency, lobbying. Now things get murkier here as there are a lot of allegations without substantial proof but we all know that RIL has over the years managed to get a lot of laws auto-magically in its favor. Telecom was no different. From the conversion of its ISP license to UASL to using Infotel as a front in the 4G spectrum auctions, RIL played all its cards right to ensure that the laws in general were favorable to Jio. The ISP to UASL conversion at a mere 1k-2k crores saved RIL probably tens of thousands of crores during spectrum auctions. + +The third is operational excellence. RIL made a great decision by going 4G only as the market for 4G devices was super mature by the time they launched. This helped them save money on running 2G and 3G networks. Next, tying up Samsung as their sole equipment provider probably provided some discounts and uniformity across the network. True to its roots, RIL is planning go down stream in telecom as well and plans to become a telecom equipment manufacturer as per media reports. All the more savings. + +Combine these three and its not tough to see why Jio pulled off what it pulled off in telecom. The sector was in some way the perfect playground for a company like RIL and with no external adversaries and a favorable political climate, the fact that Jio came to dominate telecom in such a short span should be no surprise. + +Now come to Jio Platforms, RIL is now selling itself as tech and services company. But no matter how hard I think, I cannot wrap my mind as to how RIL's core competencies will in any way help Jio Platforms. + +Lets start with Jio Mart. Jio Mart is most probably why Facebook cut the biggest check of everyone investing in Jio Platform. Yes, I agree that both Jio and WhatsApp have around 300-400 million people as a potential audience but this is where all there benefits end. There is nothing else. Zilch. Now Jio Mart claims that it will connect the local seller or retailer with customers online. However, e-commerce is not as simple as having a potential captive audience waiting to be untapped. E-Commerce is India is a mess. There are a lot of fake sellers online. Like a LOT. Amazon India claims to be an e-commerce marketplace just like what Jio Mart is proposing but if you look closely, a lot of products on Amazon are sold by Cloudtail, Appario Retail, Amazon Retail and some combination of these 4-5 mega sellers. + +Every time you buy from these 4-5 mega sellers, you are in effect buying from Amazon. Over the years, Amazon has realized that decentralized e-commerce in India will never be effective. A lot of seller fraud happens in India. So much so that Amazon eventually had to tie up with a bunch of blue chip Indian companies and become a seller themselves. Amazon owns like 49% in most of these 4-5 mega sellers just to comply with Indian laws. Operationally everything is handled by Amazon. This was the case with Flipkart as well where a seller named WS Retail used to handle everything. Flipkart decided to go down the decentralized path and now regrets its decision. Ever since WS Retail lost its dominance in Flipkart, product quality fell rapidly. So the grand theme is this - Acting as a platform for a gazillion sellers is something both Flipkart and Amazon have spent tons of time and resources at and failed. I fail to see how Jio would fix that. + +Two of RIL's core competencies are of no use in Jio Mart. If you're talking about capital then good luck competing with Amazon. Jeff Bezos will invest every single penny of his free cash flow and his shareholders are also OK with it and trust me, AWS is a much bigger money maker than RIL's Jamnagar will ever be. Second, as far as operational efficiency is considered, Amazon and Flipkart have spent years bringing down unit costs and most of their riders deliver a heck ton of parcels. Again, not sure how RIL can compete here. There is one place where RIL wins, lobbying. RIL could get the government to make life tough for Amazon and Flipkart. But as Cloudtail etc all are proof, every law of government will be met with a creative work around. Also in case of commerce, RIL will be up against tons of small retailers whose collective political capital would trump RIL any day. + +Amazon and Flipkart have already become the default e-commerce destination for the creamy top 200 million Indians. In India, the 80-20 rule becomes more evident than anywhere else. Once you leave the top 200 million people, the remaining 800 million simply do not have enough purchasing power. Asking someone to leave their trusted Amazon or Flipkart for Jio Mart is an uphill task. People sub consciously these days first open Amazon or Flipkart and then search elsewhere for anything else. + +Now lets come to software and services. As far as I know none of Jio's apps make much money despite being downloaded so many times. Getting people to pay for content in India where YouTube series are often better than cable TV is an uphill task. You could literally find anything you want on YouTube from music to TV shows and watch them without paying a single penny. Even YouTube wouldn't be able to up sell people to YouTube premium in India let alone Jio. + +Lastly, creating software and services that people use is a different ball game altogether. You cannot just buy this. Apple sits on a mountain of cash but its cash position is not why iPhones sell like hot cakes but its because of the kind of culture most of these tech companies have. Creating that perfect UI/UX requires a culture more than anything else. Tech companies spend decades perfecting this culture and it shows. PhonePe launched earlier than Google Pay yet Google Pay is the leader today because its minimalist UI/UX was an instant hit with Indian masses. You can't just throw money and get this UI/UX. You need to have a culture where everyone right from the coder to the product manager thinks along these lines. And this culture doesn't come by having open offices or free food. It comes when like minded people come together and spend insane amounts of time studying UI/UX flows and how people respond to them. This is definitely not the culture at RIL. This is also something you can't lobby around. You can't ask the government to make minimalist UI illegal so that Google is at a disadvantage or ask them to make double tap to like illegal so Instagram is in trouble. + +I maybe wrong here. There maybe something I am missing here. After all the Whartons and Harvards of PE firms have invested for far longer than me and with far more internal data. But whatever happens, I have developed an admiration for Mukesh Ambani. Regardless of whether Jio Platforms proves to be whatever its lofty claims are, Mr. Ambani has managed to par down a significant amount of debt for very little equity dilution, that too during the worst health crisis of modern times. +Ignore what the trolls at /r/ASX_Bets are saying, anyone, even **you** can be the proud owner of a brand new Lamborghini without taking **any** investment risks. Want to find out how? Read on! + + +The Lamborghini you want to own is a [Lamborghini Huracan (RRP $384,187)](https://www.carshowroom.com.au/showrooms/lamborghini/huracan) as this is the cheapest Lamborghini on the market. Don't worry about on road costs, you don't want to actually drive this vehicle as it guzzles 13.7 litres of fuel **per 100 kilometres** which is very, very uneconomical. At current petrol prices of $1.30/litre this would cost you $17.81 for every 100km you drive, and substantially depreciate the value of the Lamborghini in the process. Also please note I used the petrol price for standard unleaded petrol for this calculation, as premium petrol is only required if you're someone who wants to pay for petrol from their 'splurge' account rather than their everyday expenses account. Personally I’d rather use my splurge funds to occasionally treat myself to John West Tuna Tempter ($2.30 for 95 grams) rather than my usual Woolworths Tuna ($0.90 for 95 grams). + +So how do you get to a bank balance of $384,187 and become the proud owner of a lambo? Minimise your outgoings and maximise your incomings, it’s that easy. Trim the fat from your outgoings, for example I looked at my budget and realised that I could simply swap out my Woolworths Tuna ($0.90 for 95 grams) for **Woolworths Tuna Chunks** ($1.30 for 185 grams), a saving of $73 per year if you eat at least one tuna meal a day. All of a sudden that lambo is getting closer, as $384,187 becomes a much more manageable $384,114. + +You can also minimise your outgoings by declining any social event, as these are one of the biggest money sinks going around. If there’s one thing I learned from doing a 7 month lockdown in 2020 due to COVID, it’s that friends and family are mindless consumers who spend money like it’s an inflationary asset. A simple event, such as going to your mother’s funeral, can cost hundreds of dollars once you factor in a $99 suit from Tarocash (don’t be afraid to haggle), buying a pair of second hand suit shoes, a reversible tie (to maximise usage) and a bus fare to get to the funeral and back. The good thing is for these type of events is **you have the power to say NO**. When asked, just say you’re trying to save money at the moment and have already made plans to go to the park and make use of the free exercise equipment (save $1040 a year on gym fees). + +But what about those of us who want a lambo sooner rather than later? I’m about to let you in on a little secret the Liberal party don’t want you to know about called s̶e̶x̶u̶a̶l̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶a̶u̶l̶t̶ making your money work for you. The standard variable rate on your ING High Interest Savings account is 0.05% p.a, which is excellent in itself, but did you know there are other ways to earn significantly more? A 12 month term deposit for ING is 0.22%, that’s a **400% pay increase** just for locking away your funds for an entire year. For example if you combine your tuna money, your money saved from skipping funerals, and your emergency fund, you can turn your $1200 into a tidy $1202.64 by this time next year (less applicable income taxes). + +I know what you’re thinking, how can my last tip top earning an extra 400% a year? Cash. That’s right, cash. Since 2009 the ASX has had not one, not two, but three years where ASX ended up **loosing money** for it’s “investors” (I like to call them gamblers). You know what hasn’t lost money any year you’ve been invested? Cash. If you sold at the bottom in 2011, 2018 or 2020 you’d have lost not only your profits, but also part of your capital as well. You wouldn’t set a $100 note on fire so why would you risk capital loss when you can get a **guaranteed** profit each and every year. Make your money work for you, don’t work for it (although I do recommend working lol). + +And that’s it, as simple as that. Look for where you can save money, look for where you can make money and then just sit back and wait for a financial windfall where your parents die and leave you a house, a car, and a $1.3m share portfolio (remember to convert this to cash ASAP). Enjoy your new lambo, you’ve earned it. +Oil has been making a lot of money lately but none of it is being reinvested back into the business. There are very low capital expenditures due to carbon emissions, and these large profits are instead going directly to shareholders through paying down debt and buybacks. Regarding the no reinvestment and what is currently happening in Ukraine, it seems to me that oil will stay high priced for a while. What else am I missing? + + +Time to gather around the campfire for the first installation of Uncle Baxter’s Real Estate Finance 101. After observing the subreddit for some time now I feel that my background and experience can be useful for the community. I hope this post can serve as a tool, or foundation of knowledge, for eager investors who are just starting off. + +In today’s fireside chat we will cover the basics of real estate investing finance on multifamily properties. Including, but not limited to, a deep dive into the pro forma as well as various key asset and market metrics. May even dabble in a hypothetical deal… + +What is the ultimately goal of real estate investing? Rather, what is your goal of real estate investing? Understanding and answering this question honestly is the first step, as this answer will determine your business strategy. A multimillionaire dentist with a dental practice grossing $3MM annually who is looking for asset diversification will have a much different strategy than a recently graduated college student making $60,000 who is looking for long term wealth creation. + +Let’s first look at the variety of multifamily properties. + +Multifamily properties are generally broken down into four categories: + +* · Class A + * Newly built product with first class amenities and finishes + * 3%-7% vacancy (time it’s not rented) with no short-term major capital improvements +* Class B + * Built within the last 20 years with good amenities and ok finishes + * 10% vacancy with some short-term major capital improvements +* Class C + * “Working class” product built within the last 30 years with dated amenities and finishes + * 10%-15% vacancy with near-term major capital improvements +* Class D + * Dilapidated product over 30 years old with no amenities and worn finished + * 10%-15% vacancy with immediate major capital improvements + +Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of the Dentist from above for a moment. We have already created wealth and are looking for an alternative asset to diversify into. Where do we go? Often, we are looking for a turnkey (ready for immediate use) Class A asset that will require no true knowledge of real estate that can kick off 4-8% a year. Where the recently graduated college student is hungrier for wealth creation and will take on the additional risk of lightly rehabilitating the Class B or Class C asset for a higher return. + +Let this serve as an ideological framework, however, for matters of today’s lesson, let’s assume that we are looking for wealth creation. Let’s say that a long-lost cousin, Cousin Cornelius, comes to you out of the blue with a home run real estate deal that will only cost you $300,000. Should you blindly agree and purchase it immediately? Probably not. What do you need to understand further in order to justify that purchase price? + +Let’s break down Cousin Cornelius’ home run deal. Some important facts to consider: + +* The asset is a Class B quad-plex in a well-known area in the market +* The units in the asset are under market in terms of finishes and appliances +* The units are currently rented for $900 each +* The market rents for similar more slightly upgraded units are $1,100 +* The cost to upgrade the units to market are $5,000 per unit and will take a month to renovate + +So where do you begin? First and foremost, let’s understand the revenues this asset is producing. Revenues come from the units that are rented; 4 units x $900 = $3,600 per month or $43,200 per year. This is our Gross Income and in a perfect world, what we would take home every year. Unfortunately, the world sucks and takes most, if not everything from you, but I digress. If a tenant moves out or does not renew the lease, how long will it take to fill that unit? If the unit doesn’t fill, what is the cost associated with that? The cost will be 100% to you and it is in the form of lost rent. This is called our vacancy expense, which we will assume conservatively at 15% of our Gross Income. This means that we will not have a tenant in any given unit, on average, 15% of the time. We will deduct this from our Gross Income: $43,200 less $6,480 = $36,720. This is our Effective Gross Income. + +Now, each asset has unique characteristics and qualities that drive operating expenses. This particular property has an unruly lawn that needs mowing, as well as property taxes, property insurance, water & sewer expenses, garbage removal, and general cleaning… bringing our annual operating expenses to $12,852. Furthermore, we have no intention of organizing and maintaining this property ourselves, so we are going to hire a property manager, Jose, who charges a flat 10% fee of Gross Income: $4,320. From our Effective Gross Income of $36,720 we now deduct $12,852 in operating expenses and $4,320 in property management fees, leaving us with $19,548. This is our Net Operating Income. + +From our Net Operating Income, we can now derive one of the most important metrics in Multifamily Investing, the Capitalization Rate. The Capitalization Rate, or Cap Rate, is a measure of the rate of return generated on an investment property (and risk… but that’s for another post). + +Cap Rate = Net Operating Income / Purchase Price + +Our Net Operating Income is $19,548 and our purchase price is $300,000, giving us an implied cap rate of 6.51%. Why is this important? Cap rates don’t really mean all that much by themselves, but they are a useful tool for in-market asset comparisons. For instance, if the exact same house with the exact same financial situation was next door for sale for a price of $275,000, an implied cap rate of 7.11%, would it be a good investment? Well, we don’t yet know if it would be a good investment, but we do know it would be a better investment than purchasing the same asset for $300,000. You can apply Cap Rates to Net Operating Income to give a rough purchase price, conversely, you can apply a Cap Rate to a purchase price to understand an asset’s Net Operating Income. + +We can’t forget that once a decade we will need to replace the roof, or boiler, or floors, or electrical wiring, or driveway, or literally anything major in the house. This is separate and apart from general operating expenses. There are major expenses associated with these types of improvements, which are called Capital Improvements. Typically, 10% of an asset’s Net Operating Income should be set aside to cover these types of improvements. In this case, $1,954 should be withheld leaving us with $17,593 in annual cash flow to take home to our piggy banks. Without any leverage (debt) we are taking home $17,593 a year on an investment of $300,000, giving us an unleveraged 5.86% Cash on Cash return (Cash Flow / Purchase Price). Meh, pretty lousy if you ask me. But wait. The units can be renovated, and we can command a higher rent from those units with the renovation…. + +For an additional $5,000 per unit, or $20,000, we can increase our monthly per unit rent to $1,100. This brings our Gross Income to $52,800, our vacancy loss to $7,920, and our Effective Gross Income to $44,880. Our expenses of $12,852 won’t change, though, our property management fee, which follows Gross Income, increases to $5,280. Our Net Operating Income has now increased to $26,748. Saving 10% for capital expenditures, we can now take home $24,073 in annual cash flow. However, our cost basis (purchase price + improvements) has also increased, from $300,000 to $320,000 and our unleveraged Cash on Cash return is now 7.52%, up from 5.86%. + +Let’s revisit the initial question I posed before, what is your goal of real estate investing? From the perspective of the recently graduated college student who is looking for wealth creation, I’m going to go tell Cousin Cornelius to go kick rocks. No way in hell would I purchase this quadplex in need of $20,000 in rehab when I can park my money in an index fund and get a similar return in the stock market. Maybe if I could pick this property up for 10% less, but even then, the profit margin may be too thin for this. From the perspective of the Dentist, this deal may be too small and too labor intensive and may not be worth their time and money. Different strokes for different folks, but this deal won’t really appeal to either of our fictional alter personalities. + +I hope this can be a good starting point for how to go about looking at deals and a preliminary understanding of the finance behind successful real estate investing. Next time I will incorporate in the concept of leverage and how it can be used to better or worsen the returns from this investment opportunity. You may just want to keep Cousin Cornelius on speed dial… + +Until next time, + +Uncle Baxter +Hi all, + +I'm writing this on Day 4 of a 5-day hospitalization for a rare immune response / neurological complication. + +Thankfully, I'm on the mend, will make a full recovery, and likely never experience this again, but it's been a shock: I'm relatively young (36), healthy, active, etc., and this came as a bolt out of the blue. Last Monday I was fine, and by Wednesday I was in neuro urgent care with an uncertain prognosis. Scary stuff to say the least. + +I'm new to fatFIRE territory this year and closing in on $5MM NW. Until now, the idea of FIRE was an enjoyable theoretical exercise; mostly, it helped me to consider other lines of less remunerative work, feel better buying some fancy toys, and reduced the stress of these uncertain times. + +Today, I'm feeling fatFIRE in my gut: + +* Medical bills are meaningless. I've got great insurance, but they could balance bill the bejesus out of me, and I wouldn't care. $100K+ is easily absorbable. +* I can be out of work for an extended / indefinite time without my family hurting financially +* I can pay for whatever additional household support my family needs while I'm gone +* Worst case, my family will be financially secure, kids will have college paid, etc. + +Because of the above, I can focus on my treatment and recovery without all of the added financial stress that most people feel when entangled in the U.S. healthcare system. And for this, I feel tremendously grateful. + +tl;dr: it's nice to be rich, especially when sick. +Last night on Strike Trading's discord, Timmy (the admin) posted about a project called Beyond Protocol, saying he wanted it to be memorialized that he thinks he found something that has the potential to be a top 3 coin. The project which has been mentioned a few times here the past week. I'd be interested in hearing peoples' thoughts. Their website is [https://beyond.link](https://beyond.link) + +***Below is the discord message:*** + +>We've never posted about a project in private pre-sale before, but I want it to be memorialized here that I think I discovered something that has the potential to be a top 3 coin. Meet Beyond Protocol. +> +>**Analysis:** +> +>\- *Dream Team.* Stanford University engineers & execs from IBM + Amazon + Qualcomm + Warner Bros +> +>\- *Revolutionary Tech.* Sophisticated DLT makes hacks probabilistically impossible and allows for "Mega Apps" to be built on any top of any combination of devices (you thought the App Store was cool?) +> +>\- *Massive market.* There will be more devices/machines which will need to transact with each other than humans. IOT & AI & Manufacturing 3.0 is aggressively ramping and has extreme need for cybersecurity and effective device-to-device communication +> +>**Tokenomics:** +> +>\- 500,000,000 tokens +> +>\- 4.96% of tokens sold to-date +> +>\- Last sale was at $100m market cap +> +>\- Currently in private pre-sale, need to email them and provide a proposal on how you can advance their mission to be considered +> +>**Resources:** +> +>Website: [https://beyond.link](https://beyond.link/) +> +>Project overview: [https://docsend.com/view/upvdx52](https://docsend.com/view/upvdx52) +> +>Whitepaper: [https://docsend.com/view/si72wby](https://t.yesware.com/tt/aed21ab06ca24fc63982391bc4ed65bd473053f8/9a9574b85a02d48ba3fcb58ca9f33a0e/b0edafc0deb0c66040f78bd0c1528405/docsend.com/view/si72wby) +Vitalik's wallet: [https://etherscan.io/address/0xab5801a7d398351b8be11c439e05c5b3259aec9b](https://etherscan.io/address/0xab5801a7d398351b8be11c439e05c5b3259aec9b) + +What a chad. The chaddest of chads. + +Austin Russell, youngest self made billionaire, age 26: [https://www.businessinsider.com/austin-russell-replaces-kylie-jenner-youngest-self-made-billionaire-forbes-list-2021-4#:\~:text=Austin%20Russell%20is%20the%20youngest,stories%20on%20Insider's%20business%20page](https://www.businessinsider.com/austin-russell-replaces-kylie-jenner-youngest-self-made-billionaire-forbes-list-2021-4#:~:text=Austin%20Russell%20is%20the%20youngest,stories%20on%20Insider's%20business%20page). + +Kylie Jenner doesn't count, please don't mention her. + +It's hard to imagine that Vitalik started Ethereum when he was 19! And if the legends are to be believed, we have World of Warcraft to thank! +The most popular saying of all time. I've come here to see if it's true. + +.”The wealth gap between upper-income and lower- and middle-income families has grown wider this century. Upper-income families were the only income tier able to build on their wealth from 2001 to 2016, adding 33% at the median. On the other hand, middle-income families saw their median net worth shrink by 20% and lower-income families experienced a loss of 45%” + +Is what someone told me today (or most likely quoted from somewhere else). Does this mean that the saying is true? +Today I went to go buy a car I have been looking at for a while. It was listed at $21,000 and they offered me $5,500 for my trade so that would have made the cost $15,500... right? +Well they go about doing the numbers with the good cop bad cop scheme with the manager and come back to me with $425 a month for 72 months. I totaled that up and it was $30,600 and I'm like... what the hell. I asked them what the interest rate was 3 times and they looked at me like I was the dumb one. Granted I am a 24 year old woman, I know what an interest rate is. +Can someone check my math here, did they just try to offer me a 100% interest rate almost?? +I stood up and walked out of there without giving them another word. They have been texting and calling me but I am so appalled. + +Edit: Credit score is 580, trade in is paid off. Me and my husband bring in $4K a month. Also they tried to get me to not put him on there and only use my income because he has no credit yet. +I was looking at a brand new honda. They said a lifetime powertrain warranty was included. + +Thank you for everyone who gave me good solid advice. As for the people saying I should keep my car, I cant. It's a 2013 Ford focus and the transmission is shot. Ford says there isn't anything wrong with it. There is currently a class action against them. +I don't know why my credit is low. I paid off my last car with no late payments at all. I have a couple credit cards that I pay on and have never been late and some hospital bills that I refuse to pay. So I don't know. + +And to all of the rude people going through my comment history and harassing me, go find something else to do. +Sorry for going missing, I had to be up at 5AM to work! + +Some of these comments are making me feel like straight shit though. In my part of the country we don't make a lot of money. I'm a college educated certified CPhT not a fucking fast food worker. +Just a quick PSA, because we are not going to leave personalized comments on the dozens of threads getting nuked here, things that are being taken down: + +* WSB mods removed a thread on XYZ + +* I think WSB is manipulating stocks + +* WSB mods are not allowing discussion of [thing I want to discuss] + +* WSB mods are children and shut the sub down + +* anyone thinking /r/investing is the right venue to air out their thoughts on how bad it is that 12 year olds are gambling on Robinhood. + +We just don't care, and we certainly are not going to be a venue for anyone to complain about the moderation of another subreddit. If you have a disagreement with the mods of WSB then slide in to their DM and let them know (modmail, don't actually DM a mod, that's weird), or go to one of the subreddits like /r/subredditdrama that are dedicated to this sort of dumb shit, but don't post about it here because that'll be immediately removed. + +This subreddit is for discussing investing, not for airing out disagreements with other subreddits. I think I've nuked a dozen threads on this topic, and two people have already been banned for re-posting removed threads. + +**E: I don't know how but lot's of confused comments here, "WSB Affairs" means we don't want to see people here bitching about things that happen on that subreddit. It does not mean we're preventing any discussion of any actual trade, investment, whatever. "GME up 70000% in premarket" is a thread that get's to stay because it's an investment topic. "WSB mods did a thing I don't like" is not, that's reddit drama. Simple enough.** +[https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/) + +&#x200B; +I don’t mean this in a condescending way. I don’t mean to start an argument, or be socially disruptive. I’m not here to ruffle feathers. + +I’m here to be truthful and literal. + +1.) People give opportunities to who the relate to. White people see a hardworking White man who deserves a shot, and they’ll put him on. It might take 10 try’s but that White man will eventually be put on. Professional Black people never give shots to hardworking broke black people cause they think they’re better than them. Hence we are the only demographic that can’t get in through relatability. + +2.) Being a “Hood dude” means your psychology is different. The hood isn’t a place. It’s a tool to disenfranchise. It’s a weapon used against people that an environment wishes to subjugate. This doesn’t mean you’re stupid, or not deserving. But it means you communicate differently emotionally and have different morals than most of the people you’re working for. + +3.) White professionals tend to only see things through their experience. “Stop making excuses”. “Pull yourself up by your bootstraps”. “Life sucks get over it”. Not realizing that everything they’re commenting on or experience is magnified 10x for a Black man from the hood. + +4.) Unless you grew up seeing your family killed, seeing your friends killed, not eating for days (or only eating chips and candy), seeing the women around you molested, having a decrepit visual of blight everywhere you go, and being indoctrinated to participate in the black market economy (crime) from a young age, and all with no Father around... You won’t understand. + +Bettering myself is so hard. So fucking hard man. I’m drowning. White keys to success aren’t working for me. I’m scattered and lost. And alone. Contemplated suicide last week for the first time. It is what it is. I’m about to be homeless very soon. I have enough money for a greyhound ticket. I just want to be seen as human. +Howdy Ausfinancers, I’ve been noticing a slow rise in companies getting people back into offices - coupled with LinkedIn posts from corporations, painting a picture of excited anticipation by employees on not having to work from “home offices” anymore. + +In my view, these kinds of rhetoric paint a heavily biased, one-sided view of a subset of employees that prefer working from an office as opposed to working from home. I’ve heard a lot of anecdotal reasoning indicating that a big drive for the return to office is stimulating the economy of small businesses in the CBD. + +I’m interested in knowing the opinions of this subreddit regarding the above - while I understand the economic benefit of having more people in the city, is the onus really on us to supplement small business economy in cities as opposed to locally/ regionally? Is the overarching sentiment favouring a return to offices, or is this a corporate agenda? + +My take here is - Corporations painting a picture that employees prefer the commute/ return to office smells eerily like propaganda to me, and I don’t agree with having to travel to the city to support small businesses when I’m much more productive and happy working from home, and being a regular patron of local small businesses for my morning coffee and lunches. + +TL;DR - how keen are you all to return to offices, and how much responsibility do you feel you owe towards supporting small businesses in the city by giving up WFH privileges? What’s your take on the rising corporate messaging re: the return to office? +My wife and I (no kids) live in Houston TX. I am in oil and gas. She is a successful family law attorney. Here is our info: + +ME: 33yrs - Oil and Gas - Safety Professional - $130k. + + I think it's important to note that this us a relatively high salary for my position, and I would be very hard pressed to find anything close to this. + +HER: 27yrs - Family law attorney - $75k. + +She got lucky finding the firm she is with and she loves it. + + + + + +I've worked with the same company for the last 14 years, however things have not been good lately. After numerous rounds of lay offs, they finally got around to me. However they offered me a transfer instead. If I accept, they expect for me to be moved by mid December. If I dont accept, they will lay me off on Monday and give me a severance of 6 weeks. + + + +My biggest concern in this decision is my wife. She has an amazing stable job which she loves and I really dont think she will adjust well to North Dakota. She loves the sun, the pool, the city, etc. And, her job is very stable compared to mine. Even though I make more money, my company is not doing well. There is a chance that I get moved up to ND and get laid off in 3 months (I dont think I'm exaggerating; however things could improve). The last thing I would want is for us to move, turn her world upside down, give up her stable job, just for me to get laid off in ND. + +As I think on the financial aspect of it, and the risk involved, I believe the best decision would be to take the job in ND. At least in the short term. If I allow myself to get laid off on Monday, I could get another job in 1 week or 6 months (it's an unknown). And there is no telling where the salary would be (it's an unknown). To me it's similar to the old saying, "one in the hand is worth two in the bush". And right now, the job in ND is my one on the hand. + +If I get three more months with the company, that's worth more than 6 weeks of severance. Also, I dont think it's a smart move to willingly be laid off, without a similarly paying job lined up. + +This leads me to my question, what's the best financial and caring thing to do for our family? No decision is easy here. I would appreciate any thoughts you all might have. + + Its probably important for me to note that she is the type of person who will put a smile on her face and say "let's go." She wants to support me. But she has never been to ND. She has never been in weather colder than ~20 degrees. + +The best plan I've come up with is: + +I go to North Dakota, while my wife stays in Houston; at least for 2 or 3 months. During that time I can search for and apply for jobs in Houston. During that time if i get laid off, she still has her job and i can come back. During that time maybe things become more stable and she finds a good job posted in Williston? It's all about trying to buy more time to see which way the wind blows. More time = better decision. The cost is our time together; and I see it as a great cost. It pains me to think of not being together that long. + + +I dont know. But this seems like the most responsible choice, both financially and out of respect for my wife. It breaks my heart to have to think about moving her away from friends and a city and job she loves, all so I can keep my job which is located in a horrible place (subjective) and which is (at this time) an unstable career. + +EDIT: My wife and I have saved up ~6 months worth of expenses. I also believe we could get by on her salary, along with the unemployment without even needing to dip into the emergency fund. That obviously comes at the cost of not contributing to a 401k or her IRA, and other cut backs. But we could do it. + +EDIT 2: I think we have decided that its BEST to not disrupt her job. She is stable. She has a great career. Ultimately my job will change. But ultimately we think we need to keep my wife at her current firm in Houston. + +So ultimately, this means the end goal is to get back to Houston, or a nearby city that she has built up networks. + +If that's the goal, then do I move for three months in while looking for a job? Or do I just stay in Houston, take the lay off, and look for a job? + + +We have about 50k in our emergency fund. + +My severance would be about 9k. Unemployment in Texas lasts for about 4 months, at about $500 per week. + +After everything is said and done, I think we could survive for ~5 months just off of the unemployment and severance, without having to dip into the emergency fund. + +So I guess the ultimate question is, do I go to Williston for 3 months with the intent to look for a job back in Houston? Or do I take the lay off, collect unemployment and hope to find a job in 5months (before using emergency fund)? + +EDIT 3: + +This has been a very emotional 24hrs. One thing is certain, things are going to change. And change can be scary. + +But with everyone's help, I honestly feel like the best decision is to stay in Houston. Take the severance. Apply for unemployment. If I play it right, i could go ~6 months without even dipping into my emergency fund. + +And by staying in Houston, I can stay with my wife. I can attend in person interviews. I can dedicate my self full time to finding another job. + +I dont know if that's the best choice. And I have read great points of view. And I thank everyone so so much. + +This reddit post has taken me from scared and worried, to hopeful. + + +EDIT 4: + +My biggest career positive (on paper) is my experience. Though my lack of a degree has me worried. Been working towards me BA in Occupational Safety, while working. This extra time might also help me push closer to that. I'm not sure if "working towards a degree" carries any weight in an interview or not. We will see. + +Besides that I have the standard OSHA 10 & 30, as well as a Petroleum Safety Specialist and Petroleum Safety Manager certification. + +EDIT 5: + +Tonight really helped us get our heads together. She seems okay and she can tell I'm less stressed, which is what she worries about. + +I reached out to my HR lady and she confirmed that IF I DONT take the transfer, which will result in me being laid off, I'll have Medical until end of month. They will supply me with a "Laid off letter" which states I was not fired but laid off. I have a week of vacation to cash in. Ill get one lump sum of 6 weeks. And Im eligible for unemployment (knew that). + +Tomorrow I will start updating my resume and updating out budget to keep us on track. I will reach out to some recruiters and apply if I see something which catches my eye. Thursday, I'll do it all again. + +This whole ordeal has made me reassess my situation. And my eyes have opened up to the importance of cherishing the simple things. We sat on the coach together kind of crying a little off and on, while watching Disney+. That's the kind of life I want. That's the kind of life I have. Moving away would jeopardize that. And I dont know if I would have realized that if it wasnt for you all. +So who is actually buying Nokia? Who many of those who see this post believe it can moon like GME? I bought 100 shares but I’m just curious to how many people are still trying to make this bread. Please upvote and comment. Genuinely curious + Analysts who follow The GEO Group Inc (GEO) on average expect it to add 122.07% over the next twelve months. Those same analysts give the stock an average rating of Strong Buy. That average rating earns The GEO Group Inc an Analyst Ranking of 78, which means it ranks higher than 78 of stocks, based on data compiled by InvestorsObserver. +The stock is trading at $7.43 as of 2:42 PM on Monday, May 4th, a drop of -$1.16, or -13.51% from the previous closing price of . The stock has traded between $5.69 and $6.12 so far today. Volume today is above average. So far 11,713,185 shares have traded compared to the average volume of 4,931,548 shares. +There's going to be a lot of text here, so all you smooth brain apes who are on reddit, a text based website, yet are still to retarded to read, can skip to the end where there will be a very short summary, a bottle of milk from your mother, and a blankie. + +First, lets talk about the part of the real estate market that's gonna go bust that everyone knows about (or at least that people who pay attention to this shit or read my previous DDs know about): CMBS. This is the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Market. These are loans on commercial buildings that have been securitized, bundled, and sold to investors. The following is an explanation of the CMBS issues I wrote for another DD over six months ago: + +*The CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) Bomb* + +*This one is a bit different from the mess we had in 2008 with MBS (mortgage backed securities) because it's a different market with different rules, and it's a smaller total market than MBS.* + +*That said, the problems here might actually be worse. There is a company called Ladder Capital, formed out of the remnants of the Bear Stearns bond department, that has struck an unusual deal with Dollar Store, and they have a LOT of properties that are very, very much coasting on made up mortgages. I could easily write like three pages on this one partnership alone, but I'll just summarize instead and say these people learned absolutely nothing from 2008 except that it was a profitable scam that carried no jail time.* + +*To understand just how bad the CMBS mess is, you need to understand how CMBS' work. At first glance, they're similar to regular MBS, it's a bundle of tens or hundreds of mortgages for commercial properties, they're divided into tranches (usually six) and the lowest tranches pay out the highest yields but also fail first. And now things get a little complex, so I'm going to simplify like crazy here, but this is the most important part to understand why this is all going to blow up.* + +*A commercial building is an income generating property, it's market value is derived from how much income it generates. The bank lending you the money will want you to put up some amount of collateral for the loan. If rents go up, the amount of collateral you have to post goes down. If rent goes down, the amount of collateral you have to post goes UP. Now the weird thing about CMBS loans is that if only half your building is rented, you can just pay half your mortgage and whatever you owe for the other half of the building just gets added to the end of the loan. Now, say you can't rent out the empty half of your building, and you want to renegotiate the terms of your loan rather than just keep adding debt to the back of your loan. Well, this is where the CMBS comes into play, because all those different tranches? The investors behind them have different incentives, the guys at the lowest tranches don't want you to modify the loan, because that means losses, and they take those losses first, while the guys in the highest tranche want to modify the loan because it generates more income for them and they're not eating any losses. Unfortunately for you, in most CMBS agreements you need a supermajority of 70-80% of the votes to get a loan modification.* + +*So, to lower rents to market rates and get the building rented out, since you can't get a loan modification, you, the landlord, have to write a check to the bank to make up the difference between the value of the building at the old, higher rental rate and the value of the building at the new, lower rate. Or you can just do nothing, get an extra write off for your taxes, and hope some sucker comes in and rents at the higher price or a different sucker comes along and buys the place from you, making it their problem. This is why you'll see so many empty storefronts with ridiculous asking prices that the landlords won't budge on - it's because they can't.* + +*I really, really skimmed just the teeniest top of the surface on this subject, but basically all those CMBS notes that are super toxic start coming due in March of 2022, and they're going to absolutely detonate the commercial property market. Many banks and investment groups will be destroyed when these go bad, just like in 2008.* + +[Video of Empty Stores in NYC](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqSUhVjS77o) + +*This is a video from a guy who just walked around downtown NYC showing all the empty stores and how the place basically looks like a dead mall now.* + +*TIMEFRAME: March 2022* + +Well, I said March 2022 was when these shit CMBS notes were going to start detonating/causing problems. Let's check shall we? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rr2ls6wavqw81.png?width=1620&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1109256f0e0c44408af3a08c624b9c5317409b3 + +You see that little spike at the end of the head and shoulders before it really dives to new all time lows? Yeah, that's the last day of February, 2022. + +Ok, so that's 1/3 of the US real estate market, what about the 2/3rds of the market that's residential? Well, this is where it gets weird, and how everyone (including me) kept missing it. I've written before about the issues with the US housing market - housing units relative to population has actually increased over the last decade+, while homeownership rates have dropped and prices have skyrocketed. + +Everyone who looks at the residential market thinks its being bought by residents, and that all the people buying today are actually qualified buyers with good credit scores and jobs and such. And that is true for all the people buying houses. There is not a repeat of the 2008 sub-prime debacle with NINJA (No Income, No Job, no Assets) loans. What is new - and whenever you get a financial crisis it's always, ALWAYS driven in large part by a "new" type of financial instrument (read debt) - is the sheer number of homes being bought up by with cash, and it's inferred these are all institutions and foreigners. For example, about $90 billion in US real estate was bought by foreigners in 2021. Wall Street however, blew that away, hitting as high as 1-in-7 of all homes and 1-in-2 of all apartments. + +Now, people look at that record institutional/foreigner buying and think it's the explanation, but the truth is, even with those crazy numbers, 6-in-7 homes and 1-in-2 apartments are still being bought by regular people, often with, again, "cash". + +These purchases are frequently referred to as "cash buys" because the buyer just pays the seller cash. However, they don't actually have piles of cash lying around in freighters to pay for this stuff. They take out loans. Specifically, they take out loans on their equity assets. Now this is where it starts getting sticky, because institutions are not buying these houses and apartments as residences, they're buying them as income generating properties. + +In traditional home mortgage loans, there are two things assessed: the value of the house, which acts as collateral for the loan, and the borrower's ability to pay back said loan via wages or assets. It's a relatively simple two-factor risk analysis. + +Now, let's look at what risks the Wall Street owned rental homes are subject to: income generated/rental rates, housing values, stock/derivative values, interest rates, urban planning, crime rates, and overall market returns. So basically, the money being loaned is getting assessed on a one-factor risk analysis: value of assets under management (AUM) of the borrower. But then that money is getting used to buy a whole bunch of houses/apartments, and all of a sudden it's subject to a whole horde of other risks, and the original risk profile is more useless than you are with your compensated evening companionship after a couple drinks. + +There's one other thing I haven't mentioned yet, that's huge, and the reason Wall Street never really messed around with buying up everyone's house before the 2008 crash. And it's a big one: Liquidity. More specifically: Liquidity of Assets. Lemme say that one more time for the folks in the back recovering from barnyard animal sex gone wrong hearing loss: + +# Liquidity of Assets + +Wut mean? Glad you asked 'tard. Liquidity of Assets (LoA) basically means how easy or hard it is to sell an asset. Now, one of the reasons wall street hedge funds and investment banks can do things like leverage up at 37.5-1 (the theoretical max level they use) or, say, 200-1 (the level Goldman is at according to the last 13F filing I read) is because the money is backed by securities and derivatives and other financial instruments which are extremely liquid. So if things go tits up like the Titanic, the lender can force a sell off of this stuff very quickly to get their money back. Now in reality this isn't true, or Credit Suisse and Nomura wouldn't still be dragging around Archegos bags from last year, and Bill Hwang couldn't have pulled a Reddit meme and avoided margin calls by not answering the phone (yes, that really, actually, in real life, happened). But in theory, it is. + +Now, housing? Housing is illiquid as fuck. It takes a lot of time and effort to sell a house. Or to buy one. There are special rules and whatnot from the federal government about what kind of collateral and stuff you need for a residential house. 2008 was so bad because the banks basically ignored all of those. After 2008 one of the few things the government sort-of did fix was tightening up lending standards for retail (regular people), so everyone who's looking at the last crash sees that retail borrowers aren't overleveraged with bad loans and sub-prime and thinks it can't happen again. But all those rules and whatnot get ignored if the buyer is paying "cash". This is the financial equivalent of the military expression "Generals always fight the last war". + +**The massive use of margin/equity backed loans by both retail and institutions to buy property has taken two separate markets, the liquid/volatile equity market, and the illiquid/stable housing market, and stitched them together like a human centipede with dogshit wrapped in catshit debt passing back and forth into one market that is unequally liquid and extremely price volatile.** + +If you need proof that this is what's happening, lemme help you out with some charts that illustrate my point: + +This is US Margin debt over the last few years + +https://preview.redd.it/cqutmemevqw81.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a477a5d11f6771327f9a103b8c1bc00a79b6457 + +Now lets compare it to US home prices over the same period + +https://preview.redd.it/blfo3arfvqw81.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=458999d7f6b2dc2510d3343f8ec1a63e0d27b74f + +So basically, we've got loans on inflated assets fueling loans on other inflated assets. This is feedback loop that goes parabolic.. then crashes, hard. You can see the margin debt coming down and forming the first valley before it goes back up a little to complete the Head and Shoulders pattern, then drills down into the center of the earth. Because housing is illiquid, it's going to lag that drop, but as you can see from the price curve leveling off, it's getting ready to do the same thing. + +Now, we know that there are a ton of loans using inflated, volatile collateral on illiquid, inflated assets. And this is a certified bad thing. But the coming death spiral of equity/asset sales isn't the only giant elephant in the room everyone is ignoring. I'm talking of course, about Evergrande in specific and Chinese property bonds in general. + +The list of Chinese real estate developers that aren't paying their employees, debts, bonds, or suppliers is actually longer than you pretend your wang is, so we'll just use Evergrande as a proxy for the whole lot of them. + +Evergrande hasn't made hundreds of millions of dollars of interest payment on bonds since September. A couple weeks ago they failed to pay the principal payment on a maturing bond to the tune of $2.1 Billion. So, you'd think that means their debt is junk and they've defaulted, right? + +Not so fast. Let's check what the big 3 ratings agencies have to say about it: + +Fitch: RD - Restricted Default + +S&P: SD - Selective Default + +Moody's: Caa1- Rated as Poor Quality and Very High Credit Risk + +You notice what's missing from all of those? "D" - Default. Evergrande has missed everything they can possibly miss, and they're still not rated D. Hell, those brazen cockchuffers at Moody's actually have 4 separate ratings lower than what they're slapping on EG bonds. Here, let me take a second to speak in the meme language you smooth brained retards actually might understand: + +https://preview.redd.it/k23fb7zjvqw81.jpg?width=849&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=72a7e52def1ee96018fbc2a4d59a324b794a0587 + +The reason that none of these agencies will put the "D" on Evergrande bonds is twofold - + +1: they don't want to piss off the Chinese government + +2: the banks and hedge funds that are their primary clients are balls deep in this debt and can't get it off their books because shockingly people haven't forgotten how those same banks and hedge funds fucked, saddled, and rode them with garbage debt in 2008. + +Why is this relevant to US housing, equities, and the margin loans financing the spiraling prices of both? Easy. The same people who hold the worthless Chinese debt also hold trillions of dollars of equities that they've taken margin loans against to buy trillions of dollars of US Housing. After Amazon's Q4 earngings, everyone who looked into them said "Holy crap! The only thing holding up their ER is this $110 Billion Rivian valuation!" Some people even made memes about it on Reddit pointing out that it was the only thing holding up the entire US market. Now, what happened when AMZN's Q1 ER came out and the RIVN valuation had dropped to more realistic levels? Right, a -189% miss on earnings and a huge bear run on SPY and QQQ. + +>!Quick shout out to those of you who like to play options on stock lockup expiries - RIVN's lockup ends on May 8th, and AMZN and F have a ton of shares with a cost basis of $10 they can sell on or after that date. The price is currently $30. You do the math on if they want to hold onto that garbage once they can dump it at a profit.!< + +That's a huge drop in the collateral backing all that margin debt. Is it enough to cause the Mother of all Margin Calls (MMC) and set off the worst crash since 1929? Nope. Not yet. But it's coming. Remember how people pointed out on AMZN's last ER how they were actually super fuk? Yeah, you know who had a supposedly positive ER but is actually super-mega-fuk and just lied through their teeth about it? Apple. AAPL doesn't have a single factory working right now, and their by far #1 market - China - is in the midst of complete economic collapse. >!(the politburo doesn't have emergency meetings about giant spending packages because things are going well)!< They gave zero guidance on either of these things, which makes me think that it's even worse than I think it is, and I think it's fucking horrible. But back to the bad Chinese debt. The reason Wall Street can survive a hit to something like AMZN and the indexes is that they're hedged to the balls for stuff like that. Know what they're not hedged for? Chinese property bonds universally going to zero. + +So what happens when the collateral for those margin loans goes down? I'm sure you retards behind Wendy's have all heard this one before - you get a margin call. First, you (or more likely your broker) sells equities. But if equities are all dropping, they comin' for that money, and they're looking at your assets to get it. Guess what? Housing and commercial real estate are both assets they can force sales on. So that same self-reinforcing spiral that drove up both equity and real estate prices? It's going to go into reverse, but here's the thing, when everyone is selling at the same time, prices go down really, really, really, really, really, really fast. + +We learned this last time in 2008. This time, because the housing market is directly tied to the crashing stocks, instead of indirectly through people who will default over time as they lose their jobs or balloon payments come due or rates adjust, it's going to happen all at once, faster and more violently. We actually got a brief preview of what this is going to look like thanks to the wild incompetence and greed at Zillow - Z. Their stock crashed 40% in five days when it was revealed they'd bought too many houses they couldn't rent or flip and had to sell them at a loss. And that was just a couple of neighborhoods in Arizona. When this hits nationwide, it's going to be exponentially worse. + +How much worse? Well, that depends on where you are. Here's some graphs explaining that while the US is fuk, somehow our Maple Swiling neighbors to the north are exponentially worse off - life lesson, don't tie yourself to China kids. + +This is bad, but it's kind of hiding how bad because the data cuts off too soon after the COVID crash. + +https://preview.redd.it/1a7gdtqnvqw81.jpg?width=390&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24ee392a123437c1faaa9e70f954a727a7ce384e + +Yeah, Canada.. I'm sorry maple's. It's gonna be rough. Good luck, and care with RBC, pretty sure that between a huge position in Chinese debt and an incredible number of soon to be bad mortgages and margin loans they're completely worthless. + +https://preview.redd.it/u1mjb2zovqw81.jpg?width=461&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed1d0dac92c4298a91694cdd14465e021d834432 + +Look, I started writing DD's last fall saying we'd just gone into recession but nobody noticed and everyone laughed at me and said I was crazy. After that Q1 GDP miss it looks a bit different, ya? Last summer I wrote about how CMBS was fuk and it would start coming due in March 2022, and people pointed and laughed. See the chart earlier in this post. Now I'm telling you that the banks and the Fed and every fucking person has fucked up and missed that real estate and equities have gotten tied up in a gordian knot that's getting sucked into a black hole of failure. I'd like to be wrong. I've been wrong before (see my terrible takes on corporate hedging of HYG for an example), but I don't think I'm wrong here. + +The market and housing and everything is going down like Anne Robbins trying to get off the Hollywood black list. I've never given dates before because I didn't have a good enough idea of when things would finally hit a critical mass. If we keep following the 2008 chart (thanks for being predictable algorithms!) we're going to go up for a couple of weeks then crash sometime between the end of May and the middle/end of July. Summer collapses are historically rather rare, so I like this fall myself, but I wouldn't be surprised by either outcome. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qtag3s1rvqw81.jpg?width=275&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=64dac76a22724d4653409897716b31fbc58600a5 + +**TL;DR:** **In 2008, the unknown weapons of financial mass destruction were sub-prime loans, MBS, CDS, and CDOs. In 2022 they're margin loans, asset backed loans, Chinese bonds, and "cash" purchased assets.** + +This is how inflation leaked into the real economy from the assets it was supposed to be segregated in. Fed printer goes brrrrr --> assets inflate --> margin loans against assets drive up real estate --> owners of real estate suddenly have lots of extra money --> inflation. + +As of November of '21, the Fed had printed $13 Trillion since the start of COVID. $1 Trillion was stimmies. The rest? The rest went to the rich via inflated asset prices and debt purchases. Don't believe them when they try to blame this shitshow on stimmies and the just now conveniently-mentioned-in-the-media "return of sub-prime loans" bit. They just want a chance to blame this on poor people and immigrants to avoid having anyone look at them. And don't think JPow's greedy ass can save you this time, to match the financial impact of what the Fed did during COVID they'd have to print nearly $60 Trillion. That's Weimar Republic territory, if we're not headed there already. + +\*Sources include but not limited to: FRED, Statista, CoreLogic, FINRA +So I was doing my morning walkthrough of new FINRA violations and caught this BEAUTY for [Goldman Sachs & Co LLC](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_361.pdf). Anyone else recognize the significances of that date range? It's the SAME timeframe that USS GME was prepping for liftoff. + +Don't trust a F\*CKING THING these ass clowns tell you. The data you see is whatever they WANT you to see. + +[https:\/\/files.brokercheck.finra.org\/firm\/firm\_361.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/ddrvcf5q1v271.jpg?width=1017&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f95b0f68490fa145b37fbc08ee310caa79d0ca87) + +No one knows what data was unavailable to reconstruct the trade, but here's a simplified [list of requirements](https://www.bobsguide.com/articles/trade-reconstruction-a-growing-pain-point-for-firms/): + +https://preview.redd.it/yodbupak3v271.jpg?width=1039&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e12ad71b850cee9ad735efc848adce551e71ed3 + +The data is coming out, apes. Their f\*ckery continues. + +&#x200B; + +DIAMOND.F\*CKING.HANDS +A video TLDR of what's been going on with GameStop since last January and why direct registration matters: + + +# [GameStop: A Long Story Short](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGWN1-I8Kac) + +https://preview.redd.it/cn13ltn3vyo81.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f897c62d6fc0ca501a00f8f16522c64748e2aac + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ +Looking for the Daily Thread? + +[New Reddit / 3rd party app link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&sr_nsfw=&restrict_sr=1&t=day&sort=new) \- sorted by past 24 hrs to only show current thread + +[Old Reddit / 3rd party app link](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&sr_nsfw=&restrict_sr=1&t=day&sort=new) \- sorted by past 24 hrs to only show current thread + +[Official Reddit app link](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&restrict_sr=on&include_over_18=on) \- presorted links break the search function on the official app + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +https://preview.redd.it/vbnwvor459p71.jpg?width=1432&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cabc77b66f8488d38ce717de804ad7aa08008f09 + +Many of us still have doubts about this dinosaur of a company. I know I sure did until recently. The goal of this post is to provide information that will give you the confidence to direct register as many shares as you are comfortable with and explain how selling works with Computershare so you can decide if that is the right strategy for you. Let’s begin by recapping what we know so far. + +**TLDR: Computershare is legit and potentially the safest place to hold your shares. It is also possible and very easy to sells shares with them, but that might not be the best strategy for your personally. Decide for yourself what percentage of your holdings you would like to keep there, but make sure you also have shares in a trustworthy broker to be able to sell during the MOASS.** + +=================================================================== + +# DO NOT FORGET TO ADD YOUR SHARES TO THE DRSBOT TALLY! + +Simply leave a comment on any "Computershare" flaired post like this one with "!DRSBOT:numberofshares!" and read the guide below on how to use the other bot commands! + +=================================================================== + +# List of Guides & Resources for Using Computershare + +=================================================================== + +[SuperStonk Computershare AMA Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare_ama_part_1_video_link_with/) + +[SuperStonk Computershare AMA Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r5enlt/computershare_ama_part_2_video_link_transcript/) + +[Dave Lauer CS AMA - text based](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qpn2z1/drs_ama/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +[NEW FAQ - Computershare just posted this to help answer some of the most common Ape questions!](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies) + +[How to use the DRS BOT that is trying to tally how many shares have been transferred to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qap4je/drsbot_4x_now_online/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[THIS IS THE WAY - How to use the recurring purchase option in CS called DirectStock and how to route purchases in Fidelity through IEX](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qho200/this_is_the_way_the_most_effective_route_to_buy/) + +=================================================================== + +**Account Creation, Buying and Prep** + +[u/Criand DD on Computershare and why it is so important](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prpum9/computershare_and_drs_is_the_way_it_ignites_the/) + +[How to open a Computershare account and purchase shares (US ONLY)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prvovo/new_computershare_account_via_new_purchase_visual/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[How to convert your newly purchased shares to "Book-Entry" (POTENTIALLY UNNECESSARY)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/po7bk8/computershare_book_entry_easy_mode/) + +[List of brokers that allow for transferring your existing shares to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppb8u6/the_drs_list_mercy_mercy_me_gme_aint_where_it/) + +[How to Computershare (SMOOTH BRAIN EDITION)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prvknj/how_to_computershare_a_simpletons_guide_for/) + +**Transferring for US Apes** + +[Using a slow broker? Consider speeding up the process by using Fidelity as a middleman](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pzzvae/use_this_one_weird_trick_to_stop_drs_delays/) + +[Transferring from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, Ally Invest, Firstrade, M1 Finance, Merril Edge, Public, Charles Scwabb, Webull, Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmsq3u/transferring_shares_to_computershare_a_stepbystep/) + +[Transferring from Commsec, DNB, Disnat, Danske bank, Hatch, Lynx.nl, Nordnet, Questrade, RBC, Revolut, Saxo, Scotia iTrade, Stake, Swissquote, TD Canada, Tradestation and XBT](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppw723/transferring_shares_to_computershare_part_2_a/) + +[Transferring from Chase/JP Morgan, E\*Trade, SoFI, Rabobank, Tastyworks, Tradezero, and Vanguard](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pt6ya6/transferring_shares_to_computershare_part_3_a/) + +[IRA Transfer Update! Looks like it is possible using this method but its a huge PAIN. Hoping to find a better solution soon](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q2qflz/update_ira_transfer_to_computershare_fyi_you_can/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[You can DRS from Revolut / DriveWealth -> CS directly, without third parties!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r9jwj9/you_can_drs_from_revolut_drivewealth_cs_directly/) + +**Canadian Ape Guides** + +[For any Canadian apes who have had trouble or been refused the ability to DRS their shares. This is a link to a Demand/Letter of Intent post that includes supporting documentation to ensure each Canadian ape has the ability to direct register if they choose to do so](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qevdrp/a_live_document_is_born_canadian_apes_assemble/) + +[Tips for Canadian Apes with TD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q2qr0w/for_canadian_apes_if_you_have_a_td_brokerage/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +**International Ape Guides**[Newest IBKR transfer guide with update on the process](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rhokcn/to_anyone_drsing_from_ibkr_on_mobile_please_read/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Most recent IBKR guide that allows you to initiate DRS request yourself](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qg26li/ibkr_now_lets_you_drs_your_shares_to_cs_all_by/) + +[What to do after receiving your letter from CS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qri7jq/nonus_guide_wut_do_after_the_first_computershare/) + +[Updated International guide for expedited transfers and potentially even purchasing shares directly!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pu1mam/international_apes_computershare_us_drs_transfer/) + +[How to transfer to CS for European Apes using IBKR as a proxy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptqxys/european_broker_to_computershare_step_by_step/) + +[How to purchase shares through Computershare for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q415wd/10_steps_to_drs_and_buy_directly_on_computershare/hgod67r/?context=3) + +[Transferring out of Revolut to IBKR (then eventually to DRS)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q3c1lc/starting_a_revolution_transferring_out_of_revolut/) + +[How to purchase shares directly through CS for UK Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q16ge7/uk_ape_buying_directly_from_computershare/) + +[UK Apes guide to transfer from Hargreaves Lansdown to IBKR to ComputerShare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qkg11n/uk_apes_guide_to_transfer_from_hargreaves/) + +[General guide on transferring for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmu19h/international_apes_can_transfer_shares_to/) + +[Visual guide on transferring for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptqxys/european_broker_to_computershare_step_by_step/) + +[Computershare guide for NZ Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q8jzqp/what_to_expect_after_a_drs_transfer_and_a_buysell/) + +===================================================================**IRA Transfers - Adding more soon!** + +[DRS your IRA the YOLO way](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r7hzl1/drs_your_ira_the_yolo_way/) (Small tax hit) + +=================================================================== + +If you see any posts that belong in this list please comment or send me a chat! + +=================================================================== + +# What is Computershare? + +Computershare is an Australian based transfer company with offices in 20 countries. They are over 40 years old and are the official transfer agent for not only GameStop but large corporations such as McDonalds, Johnson & Johnson, Coca Cola and AT&T. Even though they offer some broker-like services it is important to note they are NOT A BROKER. They do however have 12,000 employees dedicated solely to keeping accurate records for their 75 million customers. + +In 2003 Computershare acquired the brokerage Georgeson Shareholder Corporation which gives you the ability to purchase or sell shares directly through them. They were not built to buy the dip or day-trade which is why those of us used to app-based, commission-free modern trading unreasonably judge their platform as archaic. What they were built to do is slowly and repeatedly invest in a company, and the irony we have slept on this for so long is tragic. You can’t purchase a specific amount of shares with them. You can however choose a dollar amount to make as a one time or recurring investment. When you really think about it, this awkward process seems to be almost perfectly built for most apes that are just buying more shares every paycheck. Unfortunately, we have become so accustomed to following every price movement of the ticker and buying the dip we forgot one of the most important principles. It’s all a dip. + +[\(sideways guy approved\)](https://preview.redd.it/rpjnu1n959p71.jpg?width=728&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19790bf2c403b01dce9b306004c3e8394928983c) + +In fact if you go off the average share price every 2 weeks from March till September and had purchased shares automatically through this program, your cost basis would be close to **$191.10.** If you have done better than that you should give yourself a solid pat on the back. But really, what's a few dollars in a trade of this magnitude? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p1vbvohtpap71.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc3bb02e0fbc3c8e4164501660ff30aeff5a3908 + +=================================================================== + +# DTC STOCK WITHDRAWAL + +What began as a place to hold your infinity pool shares or a way to get the best odds possible to collect a hypothetical NFT dividend is quickly evolving into potentially the best place to hold the majority of your GME shares. It took a while for all this information to make its way through the community but once apes started actually transferring their shares to Computershare we were greeted with a glorious sentence in our transaction history. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vxw34yo4pap71.jpg?width=1527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=928b1893a9ee8aa502ae252c4468ab00eb77b290 + +There has been a lot of FUD spread about CS on this. When you direct register your shares they are indeed withdrawn from the DTC and control by Cede & co. You are now not just the beneficial owner but the registered owner of these shares as explained in this graphic. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zemnbozhtuq71.jpg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ab4cf269d3c5dd5d0d08c76da17a6d184105d73 + +This feels like an appropriate time to bring up one of the most aggravating pieces of information I recently learned. It’s literally illegal for companies to talk about or promote direct registration of shares. This is justified of course by the DTCC arguing that if stock issuers were made aware of DRS then they would have no reason to exist. + +Why on earth wouldn’t we want an entirely vestigial private corporation with a monopoly on almost every stock transaction, one that makes money by charging fees for the privilege of using their unnecessary company dictating policy? There couldn't possibly be a conflict of interest there right? Are you mad yet? + +[https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/34-47978.htm](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/34-47978.htm) + +*“DTC states that* ***issuers to do not have continuing ownership rights in shares they have sold into the marketplace and therefore cannot control the disposition of shares already registered in DTC's nominee name by directing that those shares be surrendered to the transfer agent or by restricting their eligibility for book-entry transfer*** *at DTC.44 DTC contends that* ***attempts by issuers to control their publicly traded securities are improper and may constitute conversion***\*. DTC states that by purporting to exercise the rights of the shareholders, issuers are\* ***interfering with the legal and beneficial rights of DTC*** *and its participants with respect to securities deposited at DTC and with DTC's obligations under Section 17A of the Act.”* + +They even go on to basically admit that they aren’t required to do anything to curb naked short selling and the best way to take care of it is for investors to direct register their shares. + +"*DTC disagreed with the commenters' contention that it* ***had an obligation to take action to resolve the issues associated with naked short selling*** *because those issues arise in the context of trading and not in the book-entry transfer of securities. DTC pointed out that* ***if beneficial owners believe that their interests are best protected*** *by not having their shares subject to book-entry transfer at DTC, then* ***they can instruct their broker-dealer to execute a withdrawal-by-transfer, which will remove the securities from DTC*** *and transfer them to the shareholder in certificated form."* + +We have become well aware that price discovery is not properly reflected in lit markets. We know the reported float is incorrect. The worst part is we are far from the first investors to face this seemingly insurmountable problem. Have a quick look at a few select quotes from a comment to the SEC over 15 years ago. + +[https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/decosta122203.htm](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/decosta122203.htm) + +“We are of the opinion that the rampant "naked short selling" of stocks and the associated epidemic of failures of "good delivery" and loans made to mask "failures to deliver" that we are currently experiencing, threatens the very core and integrity of our financial system.” + +“Naïve investors assume that the SEC has created a "level playing field" on these trading venues. They assume that the regulators are professionals, that they know every dirty trick in the fraudsters' playbook, and could recognize a fraud while it is being perpetrated. These investors really think that they are buying "real" shares from a "real" shareholder, perhaps across the country, with a market maker acting as the middleman.” + +“Investors also do not have a clue that their own broker/dealer, who owes the investor a fiduciary duty of care after being paid a commission as an agent, is "renting" out their purchased shares to the mortal enemy of the client's investment. The investor has been "sold out" by his own brokerage firm. There isn't even any sharing of the rental income from the loan.” + +“The naïve investor does not realize that there would be consequences for his brokerage firm if it were to "break ranks" and do the right thing. The Wall Street community and various co-conspirators have made this issue into a "Wall Street versus investors" battle.” + +=================================================================== + +# Why Direct Registering YOUR shares is important + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/1muxdjb7pap71.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce4c8f55d108a97d707d21a112bf9bec83f733ca + +We now know what we are up against and who Computershare is. Let’s put it together. First we need to identify a very important distinction between “Street Name Registration” and “Direct registration”. According to the SEC: + +[https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/investorpubsholdsechtm.html](https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/investorpubsholdsechtm.html) + +***"Street Name" Registration*** *— The security is* ***registered in the name of your brokerage firm*** *on the issuer's books, and your brokerage firm holds the security for you in "book-entry" form.* + +***"Direct" Registration*** *— The security is* ***registered in your name*** *on the issuer's books, and either the company or its transfer agent holds the security for you in book-entry form.* + +Whenever you purchase a share with any broker, whether it's Robinhood or Vanguard you don’t really own them and can’t 100% control their lending status. I am not trying to spread FUD about brokers. They are a necessary evil and some are certainly much more trustworthy than others but at the end of the day, they are NOT your friends. They are playing both sides of this trade. There is a massive financial incentive for them to lend your shares to short sellers and historically speaking they have done everything in their legal authority to lend them. Registering your shares in your name and having them held on the books of GameStop is the only guaranteed way to prevent this from happening. + +It’s also important to recognize that if you believe GameStop will be issuing an NFT dividend even trustworthy brokers like Fidelity have stated they can not guarantee delivery. I can’t link the thread due to our no brigading policy but here is their official statement on it from their subreddit. + +*“Fidelity's platform currently does not support holding cryptocurrencies or receiving dividends in the form of cryptocurrency. If a company issues a dividend in the form of cryptocurrency, then other arrangements would need to be made in order to receive the dividend. In the past, special dividends have been paid as stock representing value held in cryptocurrency or NFTs, and not a direct issue of cryptocurrency or NFTs.”* + +From that same SEC page: + +*“Direct registration allows you to have* ***your security registered in your name on the books*** *of the issuer without the need for a physical certificate to serve as evidence of your ownership. While you will not receive a certificate,* ***you will receive*** *a statement of ownership and periodic account statements,* ***dividends***\*, annual reports, proxies, and other mailings directly from the issuer.”\* + +=================================================================== + +# What Now And What’s An Exit Strategy? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/b8d4sv1hpap71.jpg?width=1374&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51240350388eb426476dbbb1e54745371b8dee1f + +So everything sucks and there is no right answer? Kinda. If you feel like you are being overloaded with information, I feel you. We have spent the last year learning so much about this fraudulent system it’s hard to know what the right thing to do is. I wrote this post because I had questions and I wanted answers. I still haven’t found all of them but I was able to learn enough to personally believe that Computershare is an integral part of this whole saga. + +Before we wrap this up the final piece of the puzzle is what it looks like to SELL with Computershare. We all know that account creation and buying shares is a convoluted, confusing and slow process. This is just because most people that would use a system like Computershare don't need it to be simple or fast. CS batches buy orders together and does not execute them immediately. Remember most stocks are nowhere near as volatile as GME and waiting a few days to execute a purchase order is not a big deal. + +The good news is there is indeed a light at the end of the tunnel. Selling through Computershare is extremely easy and fast. I have committed the ultimate sin in the name of science and for the first time since this all began **I SOLD A SHARE** so **YOU DON’T HAVE TO**. Please forgive me Papa Cohen, it was for the greater good. + +So yes, there are fees associated with selling. We are so used to commission free trading we have forgotten that “if the service is free, you are the product”. It’s a little annoying to see these fees but when the share price looks like a phone number I don’t think it will bother you. When I placed this sell order I instantly got a text confirmation. So while buying takes longer than we would prefer, selling takes no time at all. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/i30rbyh9pap71.jpg?width=4000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d5fc42bce074945c1900dbc6d90b70583f9a112 + +It’s also important to keep in mind you do not need to and others have presented a case for why you should not sell through Computershare. If Computershare does indeed prevent new DRS once the float has been registered you would be selling real shares to your mortal enemy. We haven't verified this yet but it’s certainly worth considering. If you choose to transfer some or the majority of your shares to CS you should absolutely be selling the shares you have left in your brokerage first during the MOASS. The ratio of distribution is entirely up to you. Some apes are doing 10% in CS and some apes are doing 99% in CS. Some apes can’t transfer any shares to CS because of their brokerage’s insane fees or logistical limitations. Some apes like myself have a lot of shares in a Roth IRA and can’t transfer them out due to early distribution tax implications (although I think I found a solution to that you will find at the bottom of this post). Some apes just trust the age old “Buy & HODL” and don’t want to explore “Buy, Register & HODL”. + +Remember, everyone here is making their own financial decisions based on their own research. Calling someone a shill because they haven’t transferred to CS or haven’t transferred as much as you is TOXIC and you should be ashamed of yourself. If you believe CS is the way, provide data to change hearts and minds. Don’t shame people. Personally I have bought shares in CS and done 2 transfers. One using the form from Fidelity and one using the phone call system. I can verify that both work. The form was a pain and the transfer took 5 days. The phone call was a breeze and the transfer took 4 days. No matter which broker you use, when you initiate your transfer make sure to get a confirmation number that is logged in their system. Just in case there are any issues this will allow you to call back and quickly get an update instead of starting all over. + +=================================================================== + +# Final Thoughts + +If you made it to the end of my rant, thank you for reading. Take everything you read, including my post with a grain of salt. My brain was as smooth as a baby's bottom 9 months ago. I have grown a few wrinkles now but I am just a guy on the internet. I am trying to provide data and leads for you to do your own research and come to your own conclusions. One piece of advice I am very comfortable giving is you absolutely should be diversifying your holdings across multiple brokers. We are in uncharted territory. There has never been and probably never will be another situation like GME. + +Many have come before us and failed. That said, never has there been such a dedicated, motivated and powerful group of shareholders like us. Our collective intelligence is a force to be reckoned with. I am so incredibly proud to be a part of this community and constantly in awe at the content put out by this sub. + +I have included links to the best guides I have seen explaining how to use Computershare at the bottom of this post. I would also like to drop in a link to a company that u/MyPlayProfile found that will let you transfer your IRA to them and they will direct register your shares. Bear in mind due to how retirement accounts work they are registered in the name of the plan for the benefit of you. That’s not perfect but its just how retirement accounts work. I spent some time on the phone with them and was able to confirm that at least the shares are indeed withdrawn from the DTC. I am in the process of making an account and moving my Roth IRA with Fidelity to them. Once everything is settled I will make another post describing the process. + +Here is the company. If you call, ask for Ryan Fischer. He has been awesome and has a lot of history he can share about the events in 2008 that was the genesis behind their IRA DRS service. + +[https://www.camaplan.com/direct-registration-of-stocks-drs-protect-your-securities-investment-against-brokerage-defaultmisconduct/](https://www.camaplan.com/direct-registration-of-stocks-drs-protect-your-securities-investment-against-brokerage-defaultmisconduct/) + +&#x200B; + +# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# What We Still Don't Know + +Here are the questions that I still have about Computershare and I encourage you to try and find the answers for your own personal benefit and for the benefit of this community. + +**What happens if/when Computershare registers the freely traded float or even the total outstanding shares?** + +([Comment explaining why Computershare might not be legally allowed to register more than the outstanding shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/comment/hdzpwz7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) + +**What would it take to get Computershare to publicly state how many GME shares they have registered?** + +(I have already spent hours on the phone with them trying to get this or to find out what it would take to get this) + +**What are the dollar limits on placing limit sell orders?** + +([Comment explaining the value caps and $ limits on sell orders. Need to look into this more and see if I can verify with CS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/hdzpi0o?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)) + +([Comment explaining what the sell order limits are and why we shouldn't be worried about them](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/he6g39u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)) + +**Have Ryan Cohen and other insiders at GameStop direct registered their shares with CS?** + +(I have always just assumed this was the case but its probably worth verifying if that is possible) + +=================================================================== + +# Other Resources for Computershare + +**Great write up by** u/_Exordium **explaining another reason why DRS is important. It removes any risk your shares might face during a broker default** + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptxbiq/broker\_defaultsbankruptcy\_sipc\_insurance\_and\_your/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptxbiq/broker_defaultsbankruptcy_sipc_insurance_and_your/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +**A video I recently made on the importance of "Broker Diversification":** + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_kuElFX5QrI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kuElFX5QrI) + +=================================================================== + +# Current DRS Bot Tally as of 11.25.21 + +https://preview.redd.it/p6wws9upds181.jpg?width=839&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4eefaf7157b60ce1c78d04ff29d5dd64b81373a8 + +&#x200B; +$15,000 Bitcoin price officially breached on GDAX, not long after rolling through $14k! Again--congrats on this. Seriously. + +edit: Broken $20k USD on Bithumb... + +via https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/btcusd + +https://imgur.com/Vt3JElA - BTC rocket blasting! +When you do a google search, you'll find that most results say that only around 10% of traders make money. But as I search through Youtube, I realize that there are a lot of videos that teach Tech Analysis, give free strategies, some endorse their course for some money. I hypothesize that some of these maybe frauds, maybe they're really losing money. So I wonder, why are there a lot of these youtubers, tiktokers, twitter accounts that boast to earn a lot of money when statistic say that only 10% really earn money? +I’m a 21 year old high school graduate with no college degree (dropped out to support a child), a minimum wage part time job (making $300 a week), paying $250 insurance on a car that breaks down every other week, technically homeless (not on the streets but don’t have a stable roof over my head- kicked out my home), paying money to rent rooms, parents ruined my credit so I can’t take out loans or a credit card, medical history disqualifies me from serving in the military, a hand tattoo I got when I was 17 ruins my chances of obtaining any white collar job... + +My life seems to have no hope and it scares me. It scares me that living paycheck to paycheck could be my reality. Being homeless is literally one paycheck away. If I go to school for a trade or some sort of degree, it may require a loan that I can’t take out. Even if I could, I wouldn’t be able to find the time to attend because I need to work to afford my insurance, baby expenses, and my rent for rooms. I’m literally scared. What can I do to make extra money when I have no experience really? How can I change my life around? I don’t spend money on drugs or alcohol, I don’t smoke, I don’t go out or even waste money on clothing for myself just so I could save money and I still barely have enough to afford a coat. + +Help? + + +EDIT: Post blew up over night. Starting the new year with this much support, all the stories and advice, and ending up on the front page for a few hours, it has to be a good sign. + +Just want to clarify some things that keep getting mentioned. + +1) I don’t LIVE with my brother. Whenever his girlfriend is in the mood, I have a place to stay, I have to pay my portion of “rent” which is EXTREMELY unaffordable and sets me back big time, but in the extreme winter conditions we’re facing in New England, it’s the only way to survive. + +2) My truck is a 2003 Ford Explorer. Ran pretty good till this winter. First the door wouldn’t shut, then the battery died, now it’ll stop running mid-drive and say low oil pressure, lost my heating 2 days ago, and now it’s smoking from the grill. I know nothing about cars, have no friends, and can’t afford a mechanic so I’m just driving it till it breaks down completely. $250 insurance isn’t worth it though. + +3) The infamous Nintendo Switch. I often feel lonely and end up wishing I had friends or someone to hang with. The closest thing I have to that is whoever I talk to on the internet. I thought being a part of a community would help, and gaming is pretty big with the kids my age, so I bought a Nintendo switch to play with people and have something to talk about (also thought the idea of playing Skyrim while in my car was amazing!). My car ended up getting a lot worse though and I immediately had to sell the system for much less than what I spent. Biggest regret so far was wasting that damn money on the system just to feel a part of something. Entertainment isn’t as important as I thought. + +4) The military. I tried joining the Navy because no other branches would accept me because of my tattoos (that I got much younger and not recently. Wouldn’t waste money on them now and I actually regret them). Unfortunately, with a kid, in order to enlist active duty I had to marry my daughter’s mom or give her full custody and have been on child support for at least 6 months. Both of those options WEREN’T options. So I tried the reserves. Went to MEPS but immediately got sent back home because of Marfans related lung collapses I had when I was younger. They didn’t think I could serve because they were afraid I’d have another lung collapse while on deployment and be pretty useless. So that’s a no go. + +Anyways, thank you everyone for sharing all the stories, pieces of advice, and offering friendships. Happy New Years to all and I pray 2018 treats us all well. +I've read that Marxism has fallen so out of favor in economics that there are few, if any economists who take it seriously. + +I'm not a Marxist if for no other reason than it requires the discredited labor theory of value, but Marx did make some amazing predictions, including the mass displacement of workers by technology (and yes, I know he dropped the ball on a number of others—he should have taken Malthus seriously). + +Perhaps a better question would be, "what place, if any, does Marx have in economics today other than as a historical curiosity?" +http://www.forbes.com/sites/cameronkeng/2014/06/22/employees-that-stay-in-companies-longer-than-2-years-get-paid-50-less/#454e629ee07f + +Companies need to get back to rewarding employees for their tenure. Until they do, don't reward companies with your loyalty. When you're worth more on the open market than your company will give you, they are doing you a disservice and you should make the best decision for your own future and go make what you're worth. The more people who do this, the more likely companies will be to change and allow us to stick around and be compensated for it. + +Millenials often started their careers in the recession, and have an inset fear of the job market because of it. They often walk around moping as if the economy is stuck in 2009, and it's not. The market is good right now, go test it. +Apartment living is very common in highly developed countries/ cities. Luxury apartments too like those in NYC. It’s simply because of density. And as Australia grows in size ( population) people should really change their mindset to living in apartments instead. There simply isn’t enough land for everyone to own houses, and the scarce houses with land will be very expensive. + +That’s not to say the government has done a good job with the current housing crisis though. The biggest failure IMO is not developing cities fast though and building up enough good properties. Inventory has been declining way before the pandemic +Hi all, I am a newly minted tech millionaire (32/m, kids, 15-20M nw, 1M+ income/year) fleeing the bay area (dislike the taxes, politics, and people sorry) to a low cost of living small city (50-100k people) closer to family with hopes to raise my kids with a "normal" life. + +Apologies for the saucy title. + +An important value of mine is to avoid the traditional "trappings" of wealth - I despise the keeping up with the joneses mentality of bigger houses, more expensive cars, etc etc. I want to plausibly blend in with those around me (regularly priced house, boring/not flashy cars) but I do acknowledge certain aspects of my life will be hard to hide (frequent-ish international vacations, googling me, etc) + +First of all I'd love to hear the perspective/experiences of high nw individuals who have thought through or actually gone ahead and attempted to live in low cost of living locations. + +Secondly - I will have a LOT of money sloshing around. My expenses aside from travel will likely easily slip under 4-5k/month... That means after salary/dividends/expenses I will be an unavoidable 40k in post-tax income a month. I don't see a point to continuing to invest it so most of it will likely either be spent or added to my donor advised fund (already 1M+). I'm a strong believer in the "die with zero" philosophy. + +My thought recently is that I could use it to invest in the community around me and use it as a short cut to build a network in this new town. Say 25k checks as "investments" to my favorite up and coming restaurants (town has a solid restaurant scene) or donations to any nonprofits the kids are currently utilizing (museums, organizations, church programs). + +Where else can I use the money to without sticking out like a sore thumb? Am I out here in left field? +In the last several months I've noticed a lot of homes for sale, that are listed by Zillow's real estate brokerage and I've realized are also owned by Zillow Real Estate Trust. The part I don't understand is that almost every single one of those homes is listed for sale at a price lower than Zillow paid for the home. And even listing them at less than they paid, they are still overpriced and typically sitting on the market 30+ days, which is uncommon for real estate in my area where a new listing usually gets 5-10 offers in the first 2 days. + +So I'm hoping someone smarter than me can tell what Zillow's angle is here and what their getting out of transactions like this? + +I feel like I must be missing something....... +I have put up a few Uranium and Uranium company DD posts previously - so for more company specific and sector performance feel free to look through post history. But for the influx of new members and the growing interest in the **Emerging Uranium Bull Market** I have compiled an updated summarised post - including key stats, charts and diagrams for easy reading. + + The post will cover a brief background on Uranium & Nuclear Energy, then dive into the gaps between **demand** and **supply**, Inventory, how **covid** has affected production, the **bear case,** how the **ASX is performing** and a **rocket rating** of the top picks on the bottom. It is a long post, but for anyone remotely interested, it's important to know all the info. + +# Uranium Background + +Uranium is primarily used in nuclear reactors for energy & electricity generation through splitting atoms - fission chain reactors - to heat water to produce steam to power turbines. There is also a large use in research reactors for production of medical and industrial isotopes and training as well as over 160 ships (mostly submarines) and counting are propelled by nuclear reactors. + +* Nuclear power is the **LOWEST** non-carbon operating cost per MWh fuel source +* Nuclear energy provides reliable base load power and accounts for **11%** **of total global electricity** +* Nuclear is rapidly being recognised by more and more countries as a **contributor to a low carbon future** \- one of the **lowest sources of carbon emissions** +* **Waste** is dense and low in total volume, BUT is now being utilised in advanced reactor technologies. +* **Inventory** built up since Fukushima is near exhausted +* The Uranium sector offers **exceptional asymmetric risk/reward** +* Growing interest in **Small Modular Reactors (SMRs**) in Canada, Scandinavian Asia and Middle east as well as using SMRs for mass **hydrogen** generation through electrolysis. +* Electricity demand will likely **double** over next two decades as result of influx of **Electric vehicles alone🔋🚗** \- sourcing the energy is biggest challenge. **\*ELON MUSK** has been quoted "Given the wind doesn't always blow, nuclear power may be necessary to meet tomorrow's electricity needs". + +[Nuclear Fuel Value chain \(\~2yr process from mine to reactor\)](https://preview.redd.it/pa5s04vzxcg61.png?width=1150&format=png&auto=webp&s=50dc863abe754742a32fd66a5687b7f5f0b3d9d6) + +# Demand - it’s increasing + +* Industry is driven by energy and electricity consumption which continues to rise yr-on-yr +* Strong Uranium demand growth +* As of 2020 **177Mlb (million pounds) required to fuel the** +* **442 operating reactors** **wordwide** – providing **11%** of worlds electricity +* Further **56 under construction** globally +* China building **14 new** reactors this year with further 41 planned over next 15yrs +* Further **108 reactors planned** for construction globally after 2020 +* US announced life extension of 12x reactors planned for decommissioing starting end 2021 +* Japan recently announced they are approving reactors shutdown since Fukushima to begin restart plans to meet 2030 zero carbon emissions +* **USA in 2020 announced Nuclear fuel fund for strategic resupply of Uranium stockpiles** + +**By Country:** + +* · **France** – depends on 78% of electrical production from nuclear with 56 operating reactors +* · **USA** – 20% of elect production with 94 operable reactors +* · **Canada** has 19 reactors for 15% with life extension under way for 30-35yrs to phase out coal +* · **Russia** – 38 reactors for 20% elect with 4 new under construction and **11 new plants by 2030** +* · **China** – 49 reactors with plan to build further 14 under construction and 41 planned **per their 2020 Energy Development Strategy** – with the impetus for developing new nuclear power for need to improve urban air quality +* India – 22 reactors for 3% elect supply with further 7 under construction +* **220 Research reactors** **in 50 countries** with more under construction. Production of medical and industrial isotopes and training. +* Over **160 ships (submarines** and air-craft carriers) propelled by some 200 reactors + +So that’s demand. It’s set and its increasing as the world’s energy and electricity demands increase and as Green Governance Policy is introduced to reduce carbon emissions. + +[Reactors under construction & planned \*as of October 2020](https://preview.redd.it/ultoyw8izcg61.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c2dd10b23c5e7f1ca0ac0b6520ac83ade3b6696) + +# Supply - it's been decreasing, further accelerated due to COVID + +Since 2016, global supply of Uranium has been decreasing. This is due to sustained low uranium prices that have led to supply cuts (mines shutin) and small companies closed. + +* Mines were **scheduled to supply 135Mlb** in 2020 (demand was 177Mlb) with the rest coming from secondary supply and inventory drawdown. +* Due to covid this was **reduced to 115Mlb** +* The **two biggest uranium producers** (Kazataprom and Cameco) began closing mines in 2016 + * Cameco closed Rabbit Lake in 2016 + * Suspended McArthur River in 2018 (\~18Mlb/annum) + * Cigar lake suspended (due to Covid – see next section) +* **Kazahkstan** is the **world’s largest supplier** of uranium – they have actively been reducing production and in 2020 announced a continued **20% reduction for three years** – purely because of the low price. +* Kazataprom has openly stated they **will not replace the lbs of lost production** as it is not in their best interest to produce their finite resource at the lower Uranium prices. +* **Several of world's largest mines** will **cease production over coming years** starting with + * Australia's Ranger mine closed in Dec 2020 permanently + * Niger's Cominak mine closing this quarter +* Paladin’s Langer Heinrich was suspended in May 2018 + +https://preview.redd.it/njy4jeruzcg61.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=cea8f888e98fcb6dda25f0fd1382a2d40c594ce5 + +https://preview.redd.it/0flf1kpj2dg61.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=382376cda735bb149ef6faf785cdadc99fe10135 + +# COVID Impact + +Further to the planned production shut-in and closures, **COVID has accelerated the looming supply shortage** with even greater production cuts and mine closures. + +* **Cameco** closed its Cigar Lake mine in Canada due to risk to a Native population. 18Mlb/yr mine closed indefinitely \*\*\***Production guidance due Feb 11th 2021** +* **Kazakhstan** in march 2020 announced suspension of pre-drilling ops. As they mine they have to drill ahead. **10Mlb/yr reduction in 2020 supply**. They drill 3-months ahead of where they are mining from which is halting production now (Aug/Sep 2020) + * Kazataprom having now 128 workers out of 666 at their Katco mines now return positive result for covid. i.e. **1 in 5 workers infected with covid** \- will likely lead to mine closure or limitation of future works if not brought under control. +* Namibia suspended **Rossing** and **Husab** mines on **28th-March 2020** +* Approx. 20Mlb hit to mine supply (135Mlb to 115Mlb coming out of mine in 2020 and dropping by about 5Mlb/month as each month of covid restrictions continues) +* **Accelerating the commercial inventory supply drawdown.** + +# Inventory + +Inventory (storage by utility companies, traders, and governments) has been drawn down year-on-year since 2014. +**COVID has exacerbated the drawdown in 2020 from 35Mlb to 50Mlb (still calc final yr figure)** + +* Utility companies (the reactor operators supplying electricity) **tend to hold 2-2.5 years of inventory** supply – they HAVE to have the guarantee of fuel for reactors. VERY costly to shutdown a reactor due to no fuel rod supply +* Additional **cold war / weaponry strategic inventory** of \~240Mlb in US and 360Mlb in Russia +* US has utility inventory of 110Mlb (2019) which is just over 2yrs supply to fuel their reactors (\~50Mlb/yr consumption) +* Kazataprom holds usually 6months of supply, though are down to less than 3months – i.e. they will build up own inventory first. \*announced they need to buy on spot market to make up lost supply. +* **China has no home-land uranium production**, but some of the **highest uranium demand**. They have \~400Mlb-425Mlb held by China and that will **not be for sale to the market**. +* **Russia** has a national industry policy to market their expertise – to build nuclear power plants for other countries. As part of that deal, they agreed to **supply all the fuel for the plants for the life of the plant**. Their inventory, though not widely shared is expected to be around 260-300Mlb though they need that inventory for future demand obligations + +In summary, a lot of lbs in inventory are just not available to be sold and will not be made available to the market. + +The **Market is in supply deficit and is using inventory to fill the gap between supply and demand**. The inventory is at record lows globally. + +# Market Outlook + +* Growing uranium **mine supply gap** to nuclear power demand + * On the back of COVID, **unplanned supply disruptions** has **further increased the gap** between the supply deficit. +* **Rapidly growing electricity demand** \- further propped up by **influx of electric vehicles and** government policies for reducing carbon emmisions with clean power targets + * Strong reactor build demand – especially china, India, middle east, EU \*and now US again +* Producers have been **cutting production since 2016** + * Decisions by many producers, including the lowest-cost producers, have been made to preserve long-term value by leaving Uranium in the ground -->increasing the number of supply disruptions. +* **Storage inventory** reducing and most of what is left won’t be sold into the market +* **Uranium spot price** has performed strongly year-to-date up from lows of US$23 to US$30 +* Uranium contract coverage in US declines markedly from 2022-2023, down to less than 50% by 2024 +* Further risk to supply from ongoing COVID disruptions + +**Who is going to supply commercial inventory?** + +There is no chance that primary (mined) + secondary (recycled) supply can meet consumption. That is even accounting for shut-in capacity coming back online right now – which won’t happen. + +So new projects HAVE to get started. + +* **Open pit mining** is where big volumes come from – all take atleast **2.5 to 3 years to build** and couple years to permit and prove to utility companies they have a high-grade product. +* **In-situ recovery (ISR)** (pump acid down, pump dissolved minerals back to surface) is the new age of uranium and mineral mining and is more cost effective for mine development. +* Due to sustained low prices since 2013 the **industry has not been invested in for last 7-8years**. +* No real capital has come in to replace **depleting assets** for close to decade now. i.e. **there is no backlog of projects that can come on-stream in a few years.** +* Nuclear reactor plants have been constructed but no investment into the mines and producers + +# The Spot Price + +Most uranium (>70%) is bought through long term contracts by utilities (nuclear power plants) from the producers (miners, enriches and rod suppliers). These contracts are for enriched uranium supply from 5-14years! i.e. Utilities need to guarantee they can supply their reactors. + +The **spot price usually reflects 20-25% lower price than long term contracts**. + +It has held flat around **$US30/lb for last 6 months** (up from US$23 Jan 2020). + +The last couple months (dec -> Jan 2021) the price has stayed flat on **near to no volume moved**. There was just over **500,000 lbs traded in December** which is just traders passing it back and forth. + + This indicates **when real volume buying comes in**, the thinness of the spot market shows itself and **spot price will move upward pretty substantially** and sometimes pretty quickly too. + +Both **Cameco & kazataprom** (the two world's largest Uranium producers) have announced they have been and **will have to buy more volume on the spot market** in **coming months** to meet their contracted **supply requirements** and **make up for the lost production** from closed in mines. + +It is expected that the spot price will hang around this area until these volumes come in - **\*\*likely March 2021, potentially late Feb.** + +There is no real downside in the spot market, unless there is a major liquidity event. + +# Bear Case - can we make one? + +https://preview.redd.it/6dprosms7dg61.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bef1599078ca1080af7133f3fe9e2cff2e3299e + +# ASX Uranium Company Performance + +Of 16 companies being tracked on ASX, the top 10 have returned an average of 169% since 1st Sep 2020. The most significant gains have come since start of December 2020. + +[ASX Uranium Company Performance Since 1st Sep 2020 to Feb 8th 2021](https://preview.redd.it/6xog7ocqbdg61.png?width=1546&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a4e5eb8f0dc64d2cd5468f15f8c8bb6a61d9a16) + +**My Top Picks** (\*disclosure: i am not a financial adviser, this is not advice) + +[Hold time of 2-3years to ride the cycle](https://preview.redd.it/mq2jutzxcdg61.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=6297237b61e282a6ffc37cde8a1a8deee8170eb4) + +**\*Update.** I bought Bannerman (BMN) last week at $0.12/share and will participate in upcoming capital raise if SPP offered. BMN new rocket rating upgraded to 4.5x🚀 + +https://preview.redd.it/gkutwn5wcdg61.png?width=1250&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3fb5ef05bade5c6fa4e023458580c9a3abdbebc + +**Key things to watch in coming weeks** + +* 11th Feb - Cameco announces updated **production guidance targets for 2021** and impact of covid on 2020 results +* **Large volume buying of spot market** from Cameco, Kazataprom and others late feb to Mid March +* **Global X Uranium ETF** (NYSE:URA) buying up new positions in BMN, LOT, PEN and 7 others as announced per part of their ETF re-balancing last week. +* Updates from US on strategy forward on **Uranium Strategic Supply Arrangements** + + **TL:DR** Uranium is in a significant supply deficit with next 12-18months proving inevitable supply gap coupled with increasing demand as world governments look to reducing carbon emissions and electricity and energy demand increases. + +Uranium Market has almost "officially" entered the new Uranium bull market cycle and the upwards potential has never been higher. There is an asymmetrical reward/risk unfolding. + +Uranium Market 📈🚀💰 May radioactive☢ Tendies🍗 have you glowing with glee (and 3 testies) +Hope its ok to post this here, I know none of my friends would care much or be happy for me but I just need to say it because for once I'm actually proud of myself :) + +$610 per week at my crummy job over the last 19 months. Feels great to finally reach this goal! I know I've been nothing short of a failure so far momma, hope one day I can make you proud for real +A little while ago the son of a family friend of mine had just accepted an offer to join a management consulting firm fresh out of college. He asked me, *“what’s the best way to position myself to make partner?”* + +I’ve spent almost the entirety of my career in the consulting industry in one capacity or another, and (having had few drinks that night) rather rudely replied *“those who make partner don’t ask these sorts of questions as an analyst”*. + +A couple days later I reached back out and apologized for the glib nature of my comment, which really was said with good intent but poor delivery. I tried to explain to him that the best way to get promoted in consulting is to put your head down and do good work. He seemed satisfied with the answer, but truth be told, I was not. I’ve been mulling over this concept lately in an attempt to find a way to better articulate my point, if not for future mentees than as my own form of career therapy. I thought I’d share my musings with the community for feedback and your own experiences. + +# Careers are step-functions rather than linear progressions + +**What I wish I said:** Your professional growth will come in spurts, and the best way to climb a mountain is not to stare at the peak but rather focus on getting over the next hill. I could tell you that directors that get invited into the partnership are the ones best able to expand upon or develop new service lines to generate revenue, but that wouldn’t mean anything to you right now. Rather, I should tell you that the analysts that get promoted to consultants have mastered the technical aspects of excel / PPT and are able to independently make progress on the tasks assigned to them. + +**Additional musings:** Setting aside the philosophical question of what it means to live a good life for a second, even if we are to focus purely on maximizing career returns, I would still say the majority of people I know (myself included!) spend too much time “thinking” and not enough time “doing”. As trite as it sounds, we now live in an era of constant distraction. The process of doing deep, focused, uninterrupted work has become almost anachronistic, but (in my humble opinion) the relative value of such work has never been higher. Do good work, and you will get rewarded. You don't get to choose when or by whom, but trust that it will happen in time. + +# You are worth (financially) what the market deems you are worth + +**What I wish I said:** Think of yourself as a product (because in professional services, that’s exactly what you are). You will be rewarded if you are able to consistently solve the problems your bosses and clients want you to solve. This does not mean you should not advocate for yourself (quite the opposite actually); it simply means you must create value to capture value. + +Recognize this may not always be 100% aligned with your personal values. Also recognize that part of being an adult is understanding how to navigate trade-offs. + +**Additional musings:** There comes a time in everyone’s career where we stop being judged by our perceived potential, and start being judged by our results. It’s almost impossible to pinpoint when this begins to happen, even in hindsight. But as important as it is to be cognizant and confident in your unique God-given potential, it is equally important to cultivate it and bring its fruits to society. I was too idealistic for my own good in my youth; I realize this goes very much against the grain of conventional wisdom, but I wish I spent less time early in my career thinking about what I wanted and more time thinking about what my bosses / clients wanted. Paradoxically, once I was able to provide value to my stakeholders, society rewarded me, and in turn I am now able to better cultivate what I personally value. + +# 10% luck, 20% skill, but most of it really is concentrated power of will + +**What I wish I said:** However the meta-skill that sits above focus and productivity is good judgement. This encompasses not only the ability to choose which projects and partners to attach yourself to, but also which battles to fight and which hills to die on (hint: very few of them). Invest in your mental health; your ability to keep your head while others around you are losing theirs will distinguish you not only in your career but in life. The consulting career is a marathon. To make it to the top, you will not only need to produce excellent work, but do so for over a sustained period of time. + +**Additional musings:** This idea probably deserves its own deep dive, but it probably is the most important point of this post. Again, even setting aside all the philosophical benefits, I find having a clear mind to be the most important tool (and most consistent trait) demonstrated by those I consider having had successful careers. In informal discussions with consulting / banking partners and corporate executives, rather than intelligence or work ethic, they overwhelmingly credit their success to being able to push through low points in their career better than their peers at the time. One of them brought up a poker analogy that has stuck with me to this day: “The mark of a true pro isn’t necessarily how much you win with a good hand, but rather how little you lose with a bad one”. + +Thanks for reading. +&#x200B; + +Here we are again. Another token on the verge of a massive breakout, shining at the most opportune time. On Sundays, typically bloody, we’d usually see a drain of the memecoin market but here is Saturna, ready to eat up all the DOGE losses from people selling the SNL. + +Bonfire also continues to march **past its ATH looking to break a $330M market cap**, but **Saturna** has the title of the **fastest growing token on BSC**, bursting out to **$45M in a record THREE days.** + +Saturna’s potential is quicking spinning out of control but the developers have a tight grip on the rocketship, delivering on milestone after milestone in spite of the short time frame. With that we’ve already seen a **Solidity audit delivered with zero security issues**, huge influencer campaigns, an **NFT marketplace** in development, **big giveaways** and, get this, **a CEX listing!?** + +This is truly the golden era for us memecoiners and moonshot lurkers and it’s time to grab a hold of the next token to go up and to the right forever. **Already eclipsing 13,000 holders,** Saturna’s price floor is being rebuilt over and over again, **volume spiking to $8M daily.**. It’s insane. + +There are whispers now of even bigger marketing partnerships as everyone takes notice of what will be the next giant on BSC. It won’t be long before the **influencers are lining up** to blast Saturna **just to secure a W for their followers.** + +With the next moon landing set at 25,000 holders on their roadmap designed to reward holder milestones, it won’t be long before the next set of developments are unveiled which should launch this token to brand new heights. + +I’m getting sick just thinking about how much further this can go and how crazy this ride is going to get. So make sure you DYOR, and if you start to feel nauseous from the ups and downs, remember that **diamond hands** in this market are what **create not just wealth, but generational wealth.** The type that allows you to hand family members full BTC’s for their birthday. + +After all, anyone who sold **SafeMoon, DOGE, Bonfire**, well, they feel sicker than you’ve ever been with those tokens continuing to launch to new heights. If I haven’t made it clear by now, then you should really just understand this. You **DO NOT** want to miss out on **Saturna**. Links below: + +**🌐 Website:** [saturna.co/](https://saturna.co/) + +**🔥 Telegram:** [t.me/saturna\_TG](https://t.me/saturna_TG) + +**🥞 PancakeSwap:** [exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44) +How much is too much?? + +My wife wants to bring her on any overnight anywhere. But part of me feels life some upper class asshole bringing a nanny everywhere we go. + +Have you found a balance that doesn’t make you feel like a absentee parent? +Around last year, in Policy Baazar website, a 1crore health insurance policy came up of Aditya Birla Group at similar costs as a 10lakh policy (Around 10k). This policy had some limitations, but still it became super popular and the best seller of the website. + +Soon other companies started launching similar 1 crore plans, and now due to healthy competition, there are policies of 1crore with seemingly no negative points at the same cost as 10lakh worth normal policies. + +^(\[There was a pic here showing the list of all policies, but it was deleted because this sub doesn't allow it and removed my previous post due to that. You can check my profile for the pics in another post\]) + +**So, what is the catch?** I can't figure out any. And that is the reason for this post. If you know any catch, let me know. + +There are no room sublimits or anything. But some of them have maximum room choice as "Single Private AC Room" which is totally fine as the room above it is Suite which is usually not needed. + +But if you want room at "all categories" then some of them offers it if you increase the premium, but doesn't seem worth it. + +&#x200B; + +# A case study :- HDFC ERGO + +In HDFC ERGO, they have a policy called Koti Suraksha which offers 1crore policy at around 12k for those younger than 35 with no illness. It may slightly increase if your age increases or have any illness. but this is the standard price. There is no sublimits for room rent but the max allowed is Single Private AC Room. + +You get a choice of 3 Zones when trying to make payment. The default policy covers all hospitals all over the country except for few expensive cities mentioned where if you get hospitalized, you will have to pay 20% of the bill out of your pocket. But their zones are quite good especially for south Indians as the default plan covers entire southern India. + +If you want to cover all of India except Delhi, then it would cost 2k more. If you want Delhi too, then it would cost further 3k more. Delhi seems to be very expensive! For most of the people I don't think this is required and cover without these cities is fine. + +^(\[There was a pic here showing difference in prices in zones, but it was deleted because this sub doesn't allow it and removed my previous post due to that.You can check my profile for the pics in another post\]) + +HDFC ERGO has two other policies, first one called Optima Restore offers 10lakhs premium at 11k and another one at 10k. But there appears to be no major extra benefit. + +^(\[There was a pic here comparing the price and differences in the above 3 policies, but it was deleted because this sub doesn't allow it and removed my previous post due to that\]) + +**There are only 3 Major Differences I have found between the 10L policies and 1 Crore one.** + +1. **Room will be Single Standard AC Room.** While in other two, there is no such mention, so you can even choose Suite. But the thing is, if you are sick, and you are in hospital, and your plan is only 10lakhs, you don't want to waste that money by choosing Suite as then you will quickly run out of your 10lakhs... So you will probably end up taking a room lower than standard AC room. Probably a non AC room to save money! Meanwhile if you had the 1Cr policy, you wouldn't have to worry about that. +2. On few mentioned procedures shown in picture below , this 1CR policy has a sublimit of 75000. But, it seems that these are Illnesses that can be covered within that price range. +3. The other two policies seem to cover ALL India, and doesn't have the zone choices. But this isn't an issue, as if you live in those zones, you can pay extra and get it. + +^(\[There was a pic here showing the handful of illnesses with sublimit, but it was deleted because this sub doesn't allow it and removed my previous post due to that. You can check my profile for the pics in another post\]) + +I couldn't find any issues with this 1 crore policy. So if there is someone who knows better, please comment out any other defects this plan may have. Or anything I missed. Otherwise, it seems like a crazy good plan. I guess it works out for the company because the medical expenses of most people will remain below 10L no matter which plan they choose. + +&#x200B; + +# Few extra benefits + +# + +1. The 1cr policy require you to take medical checkup before they approve it to verify you don't have any illness. But this is a good thing as now you have proof that you did not lie about anything. Generally, if you get a big disease within 4 years of getting a new policy, health Insurers sometimes try to argue that you lied to them saying you have no illness, but after doing medical checkup they can't do that, thus you get a strong safety regarding those things. +2. 1cr policy gives free health checkup up to Rs5000 every year! The other policies only give till Rs2000. Any diseases found in future checkups does not affect your policy or its premiums. +3. Once you get a disease or get hospitalized for something serious, it is near impossible to get a policy with higher sum-insured as no insurer will be ready to take that risk at any reasonable costs. So if you take 10L policy, you will be stuck with that much, meanwhile with 1cr, even if you get stuck with it, the amount is big enough to be sufficient even many decades from now. + +&#x200B; + +# Conclusion - It seems to be Very Good policy, unless I am missing something... FIND ANY ISSUES if you can. +I know they are trying to set expectations but this is so misleading and almost enough to put people off using S&S altogether. Goes without saying they are recommending a couple of chosen stocks along with this brilliant strategy. + +So if you run those numbers, 12k x 8 = £96 000 of your own capital. Motley recon you can make up the remaining 4k via compounding gains over 8 years. + +This is around a 1% annual gain. Might as well stick to a savings account and save money on all the trading/account charges. + +[https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/11/13/how-id-invest-via-my-stocks-and-shares-isa-with-a-100k-target/](https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/11/13/how-id-invest-via-my-stocks-and-shares-isa-with-a-100k-target/) + +Final update +*Lyft issued a full refund * + + +Saturday I was out with buddies, went bar hopping. One of the Lyft drivers filed a cleaning fee for $100 for vomiting in their car. Don't get me wrong we were all drunk but we can all remember that ride and no one threw up. I filed a dispute, they responded back saying too bad driver provided proof (picture of the side of the car). Now, Im not sure if I should let my CC company deal with it or respond by saying "I'm not arguing that there is throw up on her car, I'm arguing it wasn't us". How should I handle this situation? I'm not trying to pull a fast one on the driver, if one of us threw up I would totally pay but IT WASNT ME. + +Update : + +I found the pictures.. Can seem to upload them to the post.. Help lol is it to late to post a picture with my post? + +Update 2: + + I tried to look at the data, I can't seem to find any useful information. Any wizards out there willing to help? These are the images Lyft sent me via email. + + +Update 3: + +They responded saying they reviewed the evidence again and they won't be issuing a refund. (I wrote back before posting to reddit) + +This time I was less friendly and asked what evidence they reviewed, for the original pictures, picture of the car before the damages, location and time of pictures. I mentioned other news articles of scams like this. I told them if I was not refunded I would reach out to my CC (so I will get money anyways) (I have capital one BTW cause idk if this is true lol) , post on all social media about their "investigations". I also asked for an invoice of the cleaning service. Any thoughts? Something I forgot to add? + +I will update once I have a response. + + + + + + photo one : + +https://p19.zdusercontent.com/attachment/1876045/ItDpHtZHzxU1lZg50hvp0ymwZ?token=eyJhbGciOiJkaXIiLCJlbmMiOiJBMTI4Q0JDLUhTMjU2In0..rYegwo8RYjktzcHg3ENJog.zwTXj2Y5RTfJ1DC5tV-2KDakrvD-oZLAg0QKShoFiSfvw8lJqV1C0Ntmk49M0YDVg9riqv_GJl6jxjvpto1cGuwboNTA28tpJ8TXBMLbhalcemrIqn65upOKm4IOT8jVGNXehN8F66mlsY2VKsGSFKO6S4-uqg2LOeXPbk6KQjQLegk15eZ_9aThUm21BmwRvtRY4KPoNM664I8CLr3mDngistPju4XTBDNy1bou8vZFMwq0SHJ-AKDFAyW7WWqPIld84Q46F1Cd5FqbWwjQsW0txAUgzmfO6-4Xc2Z2tTc.2LAxeaJtxLZ7KqnlQD-xJg + +Photo two : + +https://p19.zdusercontent.com/attachment/1876045/MyxlcpaH1Vf0g1iirpKwEdlC1?token=eyJhbGciOiJkaXIiLCJlbmMiOiJBMTI4Q0JDLUhTMjU2In0..fQtNoo2INhByAniXSFAHUg.mKxjZpjKG5gmSBkROlktdPhTgbTbpIkYZLZa7UUow6gVgHrzKeCmwQ8gLnvxSaiUTs9zK2Mll6hX2EC5NYwnieGCnRJ6y9sP5szhiPIDkq4bCc_5lOd_AyUAQSkQZ64WLuEWjszODLBfnQZ9efFzCEDSTtHRIW7u5GBnqBbFevBWTfalm6T3tkju_gyEKB5iUtXhzSzGR4ipE_L374dprixWR0QwJ1UfGIj__d07JzAFEHdwL3nLcPQ2HCtrLzMbYKkpKQEfKLuQ-tQ0MebG6W7DJ-Ni-_nffSQfwD6OMa4.FpOY8gGai1B_BGbGFujSRw +I've been looking forward to posting this for awhile since I can't share with anyone irl. Here's my story. + +I had my son at 18 years old on welfare, then spent the next 5 years grinding through community college and eventually a tier two state school. I made around $15k/year going to college via the Pell Grant and other low-income financial aid as a single parent. *Eternally grateful for my parents and the State/Federal government for giving me the ability to focus on school and graduate instead of worrying about paying rent. This alone changed the trajectory of my life.* + +From 21-26, I joined a startup as one of the first sales people. I started at $25k salary so I didn't save much after child support, car insurance, etc. I came out of that experience with $50k in savings and a real scarcity mindset since it was a grind cold-calling our way into every customer. + +From 26-31, I joined a rocketship startup before it became a rocketship. All inbound leads, minimal competition, and high contract value. My scarcity mindset along with a lot of luck and those variables created a perfect storm - my earnings took off. I made $100k in 6 months, then $250k the next year, $500k the following year, $300k, and I cracked $917k in 2019. I saved/invested most of my commissions. As a result, today, my net worth is: + +* $360k in savings (big commission checks paid out late Jan, lucky timing) +* $300k in home equity (triplex in San Jose, 2/3 of the mortgage is covered by tenants) +* $200k in taxable accounts +* $150k in retirement accounts (no 401k at first job and first two years of second job) + +Mistakes along the way because I wanted to feel like a big shot: + +* Yieldstreet. Threw $50k into two $25k funds. One defaulted, the other is a slow payback. +* Multi-family syndication. Met an investor, turned out to be fraud, lost my $40k. + +I will continue to invest in real estate + index funds equally, but real estate will be single family homes in California at the $300k price point and $1500/month in rent. I will self-manage locally since I plan to relocate from the bay area soon. + +What's next: + +I think I have 1-2 more years left in me at this current company. Lot's of stress but I'm on track to do $400k-$650k this year again. After this, I will likely transition to something like Microsoft where I can make a consistent $250k-$350k with minimal travel and a 30-45 hour workweek. + +By the time I'm 45, I should be able to retire with around $4MM assuming I save $100k/year and my investments average 5% annual growth. If I see an exit from my current company in the next 2-3 years, I should crack $5MM at 45. + +Anyway, I hope this is helpful for the lurkers/browsers on this sub that want to make a lot of money in software but don't want to build it. There is gold in them hills, and it's unearthed with a ton of luck, a lot of hustle and riding things out vs of job-jumping every 1-3 years. +Fair warning, I’m still fairly new to investing. I’ve been investing for about a year and doing theta strategies for a few months. + +Also, I will admit that on top of wheeling, I also have been doing lots of covered strangles way OTM which are my preferred theta strategy for stocks I want to hold longterm. + +Anyway, traditional buy-and-hold investing was always stressful to me, and I finally understood why: + +First, when you’re only holding shares, you’re stuck in a position where you always need the stock to go up. Down = bad, sideways = bad. Then, if the stock goes up, you’re faced with having to decide between selling and holding. Selling too early = bad. Holding too long = bad. And you face the same choices when you have to decide whether to close a losing position. + +Worse yet, all your gains are unrealized until you sell. So to lock in profits, you have to decide you’ve ridden the momentum as far as you can, then find the next big thing, and on and on. It’s time intensive to DD the right stock each time, and the more you do it the likelier you are to get it wrong eventually. Not only is it unsustainable, but losses are proportionally much greater than gains. For example if you lose 50% of your capital, you now need to make a 100% gain to get right back to where you were before. A proportional loss will always be twice the size of a proportional gain ($1 lost = $2 gained). + +And on top of all that, any income that you pay yourself from your shares will eat into future profits. To use any of that money you have to exit your position, no way around it. Long term investments are money you won’t see for years, for better or worse. + +And this is all just in regards to “low risk” shares, let alone the added risk that comes with using margin, buying options, or naked trading. + +Since employing theta strategies, there is always a way to profit from any kind of stock movement. Down = CSP. Sideways = covered strangle. Up = CC. If it’s a stock you want to keep longterm, sell further OTM. Stock is losing volatility = sell closer to the SP. Gaining volatility = covered straddle. Just want to buy normal shares = CSP ITM. Just want to sell CC without using capital to buy shares = PMCC. Want to reduce volatility on your overall position = wheel. Use premium as income or roll it into more shares. I haven’t really explored diagonals and verticals yet but that opens even more doors. + +You can use margin with relative safety by using it as collateral on a CSP. Of course you should take a more conservative approach and close out losing positions at a small loss to avoid assignment, but you’re only risking a fraction of the true value of your margin. Not sure you can find a lower risk way of using margin than that. And since the biggest “cost” of a CSP is the collateral, you’re greatly reducing the cost of the CSP to begin with. + +The possibilities are endless and you can actively manage your portfolio without giving up any ground on the positions you want to hold longterm. Time is always on your side, so rather than having to fight FOMO and trying to beat the crowd to the next big move, you’re rewarded with being patient. And as long as you’re mindful of delta, you can check your positions once or twice a day and step away without stressing that you’re missing a critical movement. + +I’m sure I’ve made mistakes in this post so please feel free to correct any or point out anything I may have missed. +I read a washington post op/ed saying that Biden's new loan forgiveness plan is regressive and mostly helps higher earning individuals. Is that the case? If it really is a regressive policy, why does it seem that its mostly left leaning progressives that are celebrating it? +Here we'll take a look at where the huge GME short positions might have been hidden since Jan and come up with some theories for why we've seen the odd price cycles in 2021[.](https://preview.redd.it/k12y1yxomjj71.png?width=4503&format=png&auto=webp&s=a71d022d84c6d3e2600632f853afb58185e74215) + +This post is heavily influenced by the phenomenal work of u/criand and other great DD posted on the sub in recent weeks. If you haven't already then go read [Are futures or swaps the secret sauce to price movements?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p37osl/are_futures_or_swaps_the_secret_sauce_to_price/) and [The Puzzle Pieces of Quarterly Movements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pb22oj/the_puzzle_pieces_of_quarterly_movements_equity/). Do it now. + +&#x200B; + +# 0. Introduction + +I always had doubts about the T-21 & T-35 price movement theories. How was it possible that all the different short funds line up their trades and FTDs neatly on just a few dates? Why would they choose to operate on a few critical cycles rather than spreading the buy in risk out over each month? + +Despite not really understanding the T-21 stuff there was definitely something to it so I just figured I was too smooth for that one. Then the OG of DD u/Criand shared an earlier version of this plot: + +&#x200B; + +[GME Quarterly Price Movements And Equity Total Return Swaps](https://preview.redd.it/koz9i1gqaij71.png?width=2435&format=png&auto=webp&s=98a3e727cf365ba4c52701bdc15ea57e82fcad39) + +Wow. Everything seemed to click. The cycles we are seeing come from derivatives settlement deadlines. They're predictable. And they get more violent each time. + +What I want to do with this post is to pull together a bunch of info I've found that helped me understand the fuckery and describe it as clearly as I can. Then go on to show some new data I have that might point us towards when this *death-spiral-swaps-cycle* began. + +Hedgies r fuk. After 8 months of this ride I like the stock more than ever. + +# 1. Total Return SWAPs, unhinged greed and the upcoming Minsky Moment + +This has been covered before in some detail but I'll go over the key info as simply as possible before getting into the more juicy stuff. + +https://preview.redd.it/txid9jx3rij71.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af29b850c473ca59bb2e1c17ab4d667e24f86ce4 + +So a Total Return Swap (TRS) is agreed between two parties where *one side (Party A in the example) pays an ongoing fee to another party (Party B) in return for any change to the price of an underlying asset* (often an equity like GME). This gives exposure to the equity without ever having to own it and can be configured to go *both long and short*. + +*Why would a fund bother to use swaps rather than borrowing to short sell as is typically understood as going short?* + +***Loopholes and fuckery.*** + +Synthetic short positions in Swaps have the advantage of being poorly regulated, with lower margin requirements and are unreported in any real detail in public data. + +Here is a post I made a while back where Prof. Michael Greenberger explains Total Return Swaps in relation to Gamestop and Archegos: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwiuo5/total\_return\_swaps\_behind\_gamestop\_frenzy\_and/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwiuo5/total_return_swaps_behind_gamestop_frenzy_and/) + +In the video the following points are particularly interesting: + +* Total return swaps are the ***same financial instruments that led to the 2008 crash*** +* After the Dodd-Frank regulations Total Return Swaps should be transparent to US regulators and should have capital and collateral requirements (*hint*: they're not) +* Margin should be collected twice per day (*hint*: it isn't) +* Wall Street found a way around Dodd Frank regulations by 'deguaranteeing' their foreign subsidiaries ***providing a loophole that*** ***allows them to operate Swaps deals offshore with zero regulation from US authorities*** +* US investigators noticed that reported ***Swaps in the US were dwindling***, after months of investigation they discovered that ***US banks were moving their Swaps from the Wall Street facility to London, Japan, Berlin etc. and claiming that they are no longer US Swaps even if the deals were negotiated on Wall Street and then later assigned off-shore*** +* When markets are going well thats when ***speculation takes off, and that's when we hit a*** [***Minsky Moment***](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment) \- a sudden major collapse of asset values + +So Prime brokers on Wall Street are financial terrorists who have gone right back to their usual antics after destroying the global economy in 2008. Using the exact same derivatives that fucked us in 2008. Circumventing the very rules that were put in place to protect the system from another 2008 event. And using tax payer bail out and stimulus money to fuel another bubble that's bigger than ever. A Minsky Moment must be around the corner. + +*But what's the reason for such massive speculation on Swaps to point where their bad GME bets could shake the entire system to its core and liquidate any fund caught on the wrong side of the bet??* + +***Leverage and Greed.*** + +Unlike with a usual short position margin requirements for Swaps can be pretty lax. Particularly if shifted offshore to avoid US regulation. Also for a fund that wants to gain exposure to a synthetic short asset the LIBOR fees have become ridiculously cheap since Covid. FED goes *brrrrrrrrr*: + +&#x200B; + +[1-Year LIBOR Rates](https://preview.redd.it/8bbb0dhz1jj71.jpg?width=2035&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=efdbb600c874ac6ef8eaed5c0d857c893f5d6a7a) + +The fee to hold a Swaps contract with a broker is usually based off of the LIBOR rate plus an additional 'spread' rate to cover the prime broker admin costs. Over the last couple of years the LIBOR rate has collapsed from around 3% in 2019 to just 0.2% today in Aug 2021. No wonder the share borrow fees we see are so low when hedgefunds can get synthetic short exposure for next to nothing from their prime broker buddies. + +*But what happens when their bets go bad and they're over leveraged to shit?* + +***Prime Brokers bend over backwards to help them out.*** + +From the Credit Suisse report on the Archegos fiasco - [https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/investor-relations/financial-disclosures/results/csg-special-committee-bod-report-archegos.pdf](https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/investor-relations/financial-disclosures/results/csg-special-committee-bod-report-archegos.pdf): + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/yvtd621y4jj71.png?width=1317&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d55434cd91f619949e53db42d90d910b484888b + +The report is long and dense with a ton of useful info. The above is a caption I picked out almost at random, there are many other passages like this. It shows that ***Archegos was breaching internal risk assessment checks consistently since July 2020 until they collapsed in March 2021 yet Credit Suisse simply gave them chance after chance***. + +*But how does a Total Return Swap work in practice?* + +I don't exactly know but I found some useful info and examples while searching. It's all rather opaque. That's probably by design. These financial instruments are meant to be so complicated the real world never bothers to stop and look at the greed and criminality. And *avoiding post 2008 regulation to get back to the same game that ended up destroying millions of lives around the world should be criminal*. + +Here's a technical example for those that are interested but the details don't mater so much: + +https://preview.redd.it/eyymdx526jj71.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f01e421f732a3354846385fbbd8e4c33ffb0b70 + +What's interesting in this example is ***the reset dates are*** ***stated as being quarterly***. From what I can find this is most common. This means that Swaps only need to have intermediate settlements every quarter despite often being agreed for a minimum of 6 months up to 5 years or more. ***Quarterly swaps reset dates could be what is driving the cyclical GME price movements irrespective of any futures trading deadlines***. + +This seems relevant to me because linking GME trading to futures contracts is not so easy. Futures trading is usually for commodities, currencies or sometimes ETFs. Futures contracts for single equities don't really exist as far as I can tell. Swaps deals or even options contracts are the equivalent of trading futures for equities like GME. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong here. + +# 2. Portfolio Swaps: why hold anything real when it can all be synthetic! + +In the previous section we discussed the basics of Total Return Swaps and how they can be used as hidden short positions with increased leverage. An extension of this idea is the Portfolio Swap as described here: + +https://preview.redd.it/opb37spx9jj71.png?width=1598&format=png&auto=webp&s=39b575902e3a1ebc518c946785fbd01675571de4 + +So Portfolio Swaps are simply wrappers around multiple Total Return Swap agreements that can be held by a prime broker. In this way multiple synthetic short positions can be packaged up into a single Portfolio Swap and held on a prime broker's books. + +*What if multiple oversized synthetic short positions are packaged up into a Portfolio Swap and then hedged by a prime broker under the same contract reset deadlines?* + +***Obvious meme-stock fuckery.*** + +https://preview.redd.it/1ubrs98jbjj71.jpg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c059946baba01ea6a9ce7dc1ccd368e55022c8a + +*No group of stock market tickers from varying sectors should correlate with each other consistently for 8 months.* + +And this is an interesting nugget I found while researching. It comes from [https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/portfolio-swap](https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/portfolio-swap) where they discuss some example legalese around the term Portfolio Swap: + +[\\"\[...\] does not reflect the leverage inherent in the Portfolio Strategy and Put Option exposure inherent in the Portfolio Swap\\"?!??](https://preview.redd.it/fcy4fo7edjj71.png?width=1926&format=png&auto=webp&s=659c77b4c7a2b6c6d3f0947d4a20d27c4c63ea3e) + +What does a Put Option have to do with Portfolio Swaps? Why is Put Option exposure inherent to a Portfolio Swap? ***Is this what the deep out the money puts were for??*** + +I don't know about this. But it's interesting to me that in just a few examples of how lawyers might need to discuss portfolio swaps, mentioning that *"Put Option exposure \[is\] inherent in the Portfolio Swap"* stood out to me. Could be something, could be nothing. + +[Edit: I added this figure to show the Archegos exposure double spike during the Jan GME sneeze and then another huge spike in the March run up. Shortly after the March run up they imploded in the largest ever recorded trading loss - over 10 Billion dolars https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List\_of\_trading\_losses](https://preview.redd.it/hhnoqi3zuoj71.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=fba5b3b0572eddf86885874f6d12013b5e86d1e6) + +Given that it's been confirmed that Archegos collapsed in part due to GME Swaps exposure. And that we see these quarterly price moves across a bunch of meme-stocks. It seems likely to me that they were packaged up together at some point in a Portfolio Swap to hold bad debt for the shorts. But can we work out when this started happening? + +# 3. The start of the SWAPs + +Many of us know that GME and a bunch of meme stocks have been extremely highly correlated (moving together) throughout 2021. Here I set out to look into this more closely and try to work out when exactly it began. + +First let's take a look at how highly correlated the different meme stocks are: + +[Correlations between different meme stocks in 2021](https://preview.redd.it/kgqex8kyhjj71.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec7fd3b70644c5ecda69d24c28f51ecf58397b8d) + +Here I performed correlations of GME and 5 other meme stocks using daily close data from Jan 15 2021 until Aug 15 2021. Any correlation above 0.5-0.6 is large and means that the stocks have been moving together consistently for more than 6 months. + +I won't mention the other meme stocks directly to avoid the wrath of automod. But GME is most closely linked with movie stock, headphone stock and the express-thingy. + +Now we can run another analysis called a rolling-correlation to see when the correlations began. All this means is that we look at 28-day windows of stock price data and see how much each meme stock correlates with GME. We then slide this 28-day window forward over time to see if the stocks were moving together more or less over different 28-day periods. + +[Rolling correlation GME and other meme stocks since June 2020. Note: in the bottom plot all lines are rolling correlations between GME and the indicated meme stock.](https://preview.redd.it/k12y1yxomjj71.png?width=4503&format=png&auto=webp&s=a71d022d84c6d3e2600632f853afb58185e74215) + +We see that before the start of 2021 GME did not correlate consistently with any of the other meme stocks. You can see this on the left side of the bottom plot with the wiggly lines that seem to move randomly with one another. Almost as soon as 2020 moved into 2021 all of these meme stocks started to move closely with GME (increasing correlation lines for all colors in early Jan). Since then GME has had consistently strong correlations with all the meme stocks for more than 6-months. + +*This should not happen in a free market place with independent price movements.* + +Sometimes the correlation drops for a brief period for one of the stocks but then gets back in sync with GME and the others. + +So this data shows that all these selected meme stocks are moving together and have the same quarterly cycle. The major differences are in the extent of big price moves and some slightly delayed timings. + +*Now we've seen that all the meme stocks move together could we do something ridiculous like predicting GME price purely from what has happened in the other meme stocks??* + +***Yes. Yes we can.*** + +Here I built a linear model to predict GME price movements based on the other meme stock price movements. I don't want to bore everyone with all the details here. I'll give full details in the comments if anyone is interested. + +https://preview.redd.it/m3np5kgrojj71.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b3dc7c2bc3680b0c208a58d989e87c2cdcfdaf2 + +In blue is the model prediction on more recent data that it had never seen before. We can see that the model actually predicts GME price pretty damn well! And the model is only using other meme stock price data to estimate GME price. + +Let's zoom in to take a closer look: + +https://preview.redd.it/pl5noko3pjj71.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b01da80ba37906d80caa3ab94d654ef8ae7af39 + +The major difference in the model prediction is that we are over estimating the share price. But the actual trend and fluctuations are very similar. This might suggest that GME price was being suppressed even more than it previously was since the June run up, possibly due to the share offering around this time. Alternatively it could be that the other meme stocks got a bigger bounce than earlier in the year. + +After accounting for the model estimating a higher price (mean centring the data) we get a model score of: + +R\^2 = 0.73 + +73% of GME price fluctuations (variance) can be predicted just by looking at the other meme stock prices!!! + +This is not something that should happen in normal circumstances. + +https://preview.redd.it/di7t5tn0qjj71.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d847f9b48c869f84c6e1677b2f195a2ccc5e5a3 + +And the above plot converts the data back from log units to dollars. The model predicts that at the June run up GME should've spiked to $400 based on what happened to the other meme-stocks. + +This could just be a modelling error. Or perhaps the price reached such danger levels with GME it was suppressed hard while the other stocks were allowed to ride higher. + +https://preview.redd.it/xpj1hfyvpjj71.png?width=1800&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e768e4807080fafffeac1724d53f6c8b20fac1 + +Finally this scatter plot shows how well we can predict GME data just by looking at the other meme stocks. + +In summary of this section: + +* GME and other 'meme' stocks begin to ***correlate together consistently at the very start of 2021*** +* It's possible that these stocks were ***packaged up in Portfolio Swaps***, either one huge toxic bundle or multiple bundles that most commonly contain these meme stocks +* The meme stocks move so consistently together that ***you can predict GME simply by looking at the others - this should not be possible!!*** + +# Conclusion / TL;DR + +To start we took a brief look at Swaps. Archegos was confirmed to have blown up in part due to GME swap exposure. Wall Street has been side stepping regulations setup to protect us after 2008 by moving swaps offshore and out of reach of US regulators. Portfolio swaps could be used to package up a bunch of bad short positions in the meme stocks. + +To test the hypothesis that meme stocks were packaged up into swaps at some previous date I ran a correlation analysis. All meme stocks tested started moving with GME at the exact same time - very early 2021. Did a new rule come into effect or some other event on Jan 1st 2021? Perhaps they were all squeezing in Jan and then shifted into SWAPS at the same time we saw the options fuckery? Are the price movements of the last 6 months driven by prime broker hedging of Portfolio Swaps and contract reset dates? + +Shorts are fukd. The *death-spiral-swaps-cycle* might've begun in early Jan but there's no way out for them. Apes hold. I like the stock. +Although I've been an ASX investor for several years now and understand basic financial concepts which have allowed me to control my personal finances and create my own "budget", I have to admit that I have no idea about how Australia's Budget 2020 actually works apart from the tax cuts and policy changes announced. + +Every article I've read about Budget 2020 has raised the fact that "Australia will be heading towards a record debt of nearly $1 trillion" [^[ABC]](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-06/budget-2020-tax-cuts-deficit-coronavirus/12731914) [^[Guardian]](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/video/2020/oct/06/australian-budget-2020-treasurer-forecasts-net-debt-to-reach-just-under-1-trillion-video) +which is confirmed when I look at the official Federal Budget 2020 website.[^[budget.gov]](https://budget.gov.au/2020-21/content/overview.htm) + +I have three main questions about this Budget. + +1. **Where did this money come from?** I understand that the Government is borrowing this money, but how was this money generated? Is it borrowed from other countries or has this money been "printed out"? If the money is printed out, won't this cause inflation? + +2. **Who did the Australian Government borrow from and who do they owe money now?** This links back to question 1, but I assume that the Australian Government has borrowed money from wherever the money has come from. However, in my mind the Australian Government now owes someone/something nearly $1 trillion. Who is this someone/something, and are we in a vulnerable position being in such a big debt to them now? + +3. **How will this money be paid off?** I always thought that money from our taxes will pay this off. Yet the Government has recently announced tax cuts meaning it will take even longer to pay this debt off. Am I correct in my understanding or are there other sources of income which the Government can use to pay off this debt? + +I know there are others out there asking similar questions, and I hope that this thread will help us all better understand how our country's economy works. Thanks! +Mark Cuban will be joining us to do an AMA. During this period, new accounts will be allowed to comment and post questions for Mark to answer. We will be using a Q&A sort. Q&A sort shows all threads Cuban replies to, so low quality comments are highly unlikely to be seen. Please Behave. + +UPDATE: Shit is 2/2/2021 not 2/1/2021. +I just uncovered something that is bigger than I expected and things are fitting together better than I expected. + +With that being said, I am still writing this after being up all night. I can't put it down. As much as I'm doing this for you, ya filthy skunk apes, I'm doing it for me, too. + +I absolutely cannot rush this: I need to be certain. + +Thanks for your patience. +I’m not a financial advisor and my dad has tasked me to handle his 50k.. he’s 56. I was thinking put it into AT&T at 50k/24 = 2083 shares. + +2083*.53 = $1103 every 3 months. He would be happy with that about $367 a month. Of course there’s some taxes. + + +What are some other suggestions to handle his 50k? + +(Also he doesn’t want to talk to a financial advisor, he doesn’t trust them, very arrogant) + +Edit : + +Thanks everyone! Going to set him up with a vanguard professional advisor service account. It’s 50k min. I forgot about the dividend cut in half from the discovery deal. I wonder what ETFs they will buy him +Edited: I realized the past year I spent a ton of time looking at option chains, monitoring positions, and hoping to collect premium every month. Learning all the basic technicals as well. Only to have my gains for the past year mostly wiped out just recently. The time, effort, stress isn’t worth it. Also the impact on work and how much time I spend all day and night looking at it. Moving all my funds to target funds and going to set it and forget it. + +It was fun to learn, but not worth the physical toll. Best of luck to the rest of you. +More or less all stock prices have been continously falling for the last week, if not longer. The housing market sees skyrocketing prices, the price on food, gas and electricity is increasing, and subsequently the consumer spending index drops. All of this leads to an increase in inflation. + +Are we going to see a stock market crash and financial crisis, like the ones in 1929 and 2008? Or are things different this time? + +Also, should I personally be worried that I'm not going to be able to get a job, and afford stuff like a house and a normal standard of living, once I've finished my education in 5-6 years? +Hey all, +I’m currently 17 and in high school. Once I graduate, I will go to trade school. Upon completion, I will have 140k. I plan on saving 40k for myself (help with rent, bills, gas, food, etc). I also plan on investing $100k for long term, hopefully 35-40 years until retirement. I also plan on getting a job immediately out of trade school which the average salary is around 70-75k. I feel I am way ahead of my kids my age, financially wise. But at the same time, i’ve only dealt with up to $15k, not 140k. That’s why I feel it would help to have an expert. This way I show them my living situation, my bills and other expenses, my salary, etc, and can help come up with a master budgeting plan so I don’t ruin the 40k immediately out of the gates. I also want help investing. I’ve been investing (using my fathers account) since 12 years old. I know what i’m doing. I know to invest in conservative funds like VTI or VT. But again, I have never dealt with so much money and want to be extra careful. Do you think it’s a good idea to get an experts help here? +Good day, Apes! + +This DD will provide you with a plethora of knowledge on why 2022 is year of the MOASS, and after absorbing this info, you'll reach such a high level of zen that you'll be completely impervious to any FUD. + +https://i.redd.it/2uwehkoxbnw81.gif + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Recommended Prerequisite DD: + +1. [Checkmate](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/txnwhu/checkmate/) +2. [We Are Unstoppable](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/t3zp4h/we_are_unstoppable/) +3. [Mountains of GME Synthetic Shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxljfb/the_numbers_are_in_mountains_of_gme_synthetic/) + +\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +2022: Year of the MOASS \[8 Reasons Why **∞** Soon\] + +§1: RC's BBBY Call Options + +§2: Indicators \[Primarily Utilization\] + +§3: The Algorithm + +§4: Market Crash + +§5: Stock Split Dividend + +§6: NFT Marketplace + +§7: DRS + +§8: DOJ Investigations + +\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +**§1:** **RC's BBBY Call Options** + +1 month ago, RC purchased not only a significant amount of BBBY shares, but also a significant amount of call options, as per SEC Schedule 13D Filing from RC Ventures: + +Under ITEM 3, + +“The aggregate purchase price of the 7,780,000 Shares directly owned by RC Ventures is approximately $119,376,296, excluding brokerage commissions. **The aggregate purchase price of the call options exercisable into 1,670,100 Shares owned directly by RC Ventures is approximately $1,785,263, excluding brokerage commissions.**” + +Here’s more details on the options he purchased: + +https://preview.redd.it/2n101ksyanw81.png?width=1339&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d58a23720b26ca121cd028b593a71feabc0a5c0 + +https://preview.redd.it/i16wwmwzanw81.png?width=1341&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae8d3e0be4a22770d7a95017b7a9a252c6b6d4bf + +Call options varying from $60-$80, expiring January 2023. + +This means that RC is betting that the price of BBBY will surpass $80 anywhere from now till January, 2023. These are the furthest OTM options that he could buy (meaning that the highest price he could bet the stock was going to surpass was $80, and he purchased those contracts). + +The price of BBBY stock at the time of recording is around $15, meaning that for RC’s $60 calls to go ITM, the price of BBBY would need to increase 301%+ its current price (and increase 434%+ for the $80 call options). For this to happen, there���d need to be a January 2021-type run up, which is not possible anymore without igniting MOASS. In other words, RC is betting MOASS before January, 2023. However, due to theta decay on options contracts, **RC is most likely anticipating MOASS to happen way before January, 2023 (likely sometime around mid-2022)**, which would be around the time of the NFT Marketplace/Stock-Split Dividend, which makes sense. + +Also, if we further ponder why RC would go with BBBY contracts instead of GME contracts, it makes perfect sense. RC is the type of guy to only want to either HOLD or HODL his GME shares. I doubt he’ll be interested in selling any GME shares during MOASS, as to not inhibit the legendary event. But, if he wanted to collect profits on the MOASS, he could sell his BBBY options instead. BBBY, being one of the basket stocks attached to GME’s price, will squeeze once the MOASS launches, and so RC could turn his million dollar options position with BBBY into billions in profits, selling those contracts and collecting billions without messing with the MOASS directly. A brilliant play. + +**§2:** **Indicators \[Primarily Utilization\]** + +I’ve always considered utilization (percentage of shares available to borrow that have been lent) to be an important factor for determining our proximity to a squeeze. When I was primarily focused on αmc during the first half of 2021, one of the big factors I looked for was utilization, so when utilization hit 100% in May, I knew some significant price movement to the upside was going to come. It only took a few weeks after 100% utilization for the stock to go up 600% afterwards. Did MOASS ignite? No. That, to me, was merely FOMO, which took the basket stocks, along with GME, to critical levels in June that SHFs did everything they could to suppress the price (from getting their pals to dump shares, to stock halts, etc.). We should note, however, that utilization was at 100% for only a few weeks. + +In the Social Science Research Network's “Short Squeezes and Their Consequences”, Schultz states "I find that the likelihood of squeezes is very low for most stocks. The risk of a squeeze becomes important when stocks are hard-to-borrow. Utilization, that is the proportion of shares available to lend that are currently on loan, has a strong positive correlation with the probability of a short squeeze. If utilization is high and a share loan is recalled, it is difficult to find a new source of shares. I find that for the majority of stocks that have low utilization rates, an all lender short squeeze appears about once every 40 years. For stocks with very high utilization of 90% or more, an all lender squeeze occurs about once every 11 days." + +This goes in line with what I witnessed with αmc on May-June, 2021. + +However, in the case today, GME has been at 100% utilization for 50+ consecutive trading days, which is big. + +For reference, utilization was at 100% for about 90 consecutive trading days, leading to the January, 2021 run up. + +https://preview.redd.it/b5nm75ksanw81.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ec5e6c6a33e32702212dd7b1fa0e8f6d71c9950 + +Now it looks like we’re repeating that same pattern: + +https://preview.redd.it/yr9qlg2wanw81.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=44ba40e7425436085f781262e470e4540e1ce950 + +For utilization to be at 100% for so long at this point tells us that the spring is loading up for something BIG, and whatever is coming is going to explode like nobody’s ever seen before. The January run up in 2021 was pure FOMO. That can’t happen anymore. If GME explodes past critical margin levels, MOASS begins (legitimate short positions closing) and that 100x run up from August 2020-January 2021 will be peanuts compared to what’s coming. + +Note: I’m not saying that the current utilization will emulate the January, 2021 utilization data. It could easily take longer than 90 consecutive trading days, but every trading day at 100% utilization adds to the pressure which will inevitably make the price erupt into a nuclear MOASS. Another few months of consecutive 100% utilization alone will make the price of GME substantially harder to control. + +There's also other strong indicators that lit up, such as the supertrend indicator. The weekly supertrend indicator went bullish 4 weeks ago. Last time it was bullish was in February, 2021. + +https://preview.redd.it/skom8hy1bnw81.png?width=1147&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ae047aeeead5d6afdbbbccef436741bb7feca5e + +Due note that when the weekly supertrend flipped bullish pre-January, 2021, several months went by until the January run up happened. This indicator, by no means, infers that a big price jump will happen within a short period of time, but that a strong run up in the price may occur sometime between now and several months from now. + +There's also other long-term indicators that flipped bullish several weeks back, but they aren't nearly as important as utilization. TA is mostly useless when it comes to a manipulated stock. There's only a few indicators that actually hold some significance to me, and even then, are not indicative of anything happening immediately. + +The most important indicator here is utilization, which may take several months for the price to react to, and ultimately pass margin levels, launching MOASS. + +**§3:** **The Algorithm** + +As I've said before, I consider TA to be mostly useless. This is primarily because Technical Analysis is used to predict "natural price movements". Well...there's nothing natural about GME's price movement. This is a heavily manipulated stock, so trying to predict natural trends of a heavily manipulated stock is counterintuitive. + +I've previously seen TA posts from Apes saying things, such as "bull flag forming, moon soon" or "inverted head and shoulders pattern, we're gonna run". This is silly. I mean, just think about it logically. You really think a SHF manager manipulating GME is gonna be like "OH SHIT, everybody, look, there's a bull flag forming on GME! We're screwed! We're gonna lose control of the price, and have to close all our short positions now! NoooOOOO!!!"? + +Miss me with that BS lmao. If anything, SHFs create fake bullish patterns just to get day traders to buy short term options thinking there will be a price jump on a certain date, only to get rekt when SHFs drop the price and collect their sweet premium money to help live another day. + +I care very little about TA. What I DO care about is the $100 million algorithm these institutions use to manipulate the price. + +The algorithm is used to optimize the best strategies for SHFs, for example, to determine how long they can feasibly keep the price down until they have to let it run a bit (due to rollover periods, etc.). Ergo, the algorithm can maximize the effectiveness of 'can-kicking', but eventually it comes to a point where the most strategic choice would be to let the price run a few weeks before shorting again. + +What happened on January, 2021 was a scenario that overpowered the algorithm. The algorithm didn’t say “hey, GME needs to go from $4 to $400+ by January, 2021”. That’s not how it works. It was slated to allow a gradual increase at the time, but got overpowered and taken over by retail FOMO. In January, retail regained control of the stock and took away control from the algo, up until the shutdown of the buy button where SHFs not only recalibrated the algo, but all piled in to double down on their short positions by shorting the shit out of GME as soon as the buy button got shut off. + +Regardless of any recalibrations from SHFs, their algorithm is designed to maximize profits, and at some point, the algo has to let there be a significant price increase and face a (say) 60% risk of tripping up and initiating MOASS rather than a 95% risk of initiating MOASS by burning through cash at an exponential rate, ultimately facing margin calls. Cost to borrow is an example. Cost to borrow was increasing at an exponential rate. Had they not allowed a price increase, the rate could've continued, eventually burning through their cash at an astounding speed. Every time that they allow a small run up to happen, however, they risk losing control of the price and ultimately initiating MOASS, which is why I'm curious to know how high of an algorithmic jump SHFs will have to deal with in the future. + +The closest algorithm I could find that best emulated GME's algorithm (in past time; hence, basket stocks not included) is BRN.AX (Brainchip Holdings). + +For comparison, this is GME's chart: + +https://preview.redd.it/7sacl6b4bnw81.png?width=1149&format=png&auto=webp&s=df8a73984de8b02924e90916b839a05d4008f5d3 + +This is BRN's chart: + +https://preview.redd.it/wb3y6585bnw81.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbf2d535a37f8ff405e58a65bf8cd7bf074dbd1d + +The similarities are striking. BRN's "January run" happened on September, 2020; hence, it's technically ahead of GME by around 5 months, which would allow us to see a possible glimpse into the future, based on the algorithm. + +I wanted to dig deeper by deriving a correlation coefficient, so I crunched up the price movement data and this is what I got: + +https://preview.redd.it/t6oz5st6bnw81.png?width=579&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfeb824d8776fd4aff54faf6b24041ee1279ac3d + +https://preview.redd.it/5evg6ea8bnw81.png?width=739&format=png&auto=webp&s=4398dfba3c7d23db04063d731d561dfbae7fb1af + +**A general correlation of around .4**, which is actually considered a [moderate positive correlation](https://www.tastytrade.com/concepts-strategies/correlation). + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Methodology: + +I used Yahoo Finance to extract BRN's historical data (from September 2, 2020 to September 2, 2021) as well as GME's historical data (from January 21, 2021 to January 21, 2022). Combined the data sets in an excel spreadsheet, analyzed, and extrapolated the correlation coefficient based on each respective stock's price movements within each historical timeframe. [More information of the code used to extrapolate Pearson's product-moment correlation](https://imgur.com/a/kLBvlqZ). + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Considering how complex these $100 million algorithms are, I recognize that extrapolating a correlation coefficient between these two stocks by analyzing a general/ambiguous factor, such as price movement, might not yield the most definitive results. + +We can opt to take a rudimentary approach on extrapolating the correlation coefficient by instead analyzing the specific outliers (i.e. the strong periodic runs in price). + +Circled below are the focal points we'll be comparing to extrapolate a correlation. + +https://preview.redd.it/jurbeyz9bnw81.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d5084c225031ddc140bdc8b53d2f22e2505b43c + +Taking these easily identifiable peaks, the dates between each stock's peak, and inputting the data into the Pearson correlation coefficient formula shown below, + +https://preview.redd.it/8lail7bbbnw81.png?width=365&format=png&auto=webp&s=21aba05fc5c0f216d67301df316734568b0031f5 + +**We can obtain a correlation of around .8 or more**, which is considered a strong positive correlation. + +Note: The results aren't going to be ideally precise, as it depends what what crests/dates you end up using as your variables. For example, you could take slightly different dates in proximity to the crests, or use other smaller focal points you'd prefer in the data instead. Hence, the results could vary slightly, but the overall positive correlation is there. I've permutated the data using two different sets of focal points, and still came out with a (conservatively) moderate-to-strong positive correlation overall, which means that **we can indeed use BRN's chart to get a better understanding of what the future holds for GME.** + +As I've stated before, GME is 5 months behind BRN, which means that the big spike you saw in BRN's January, 2022 chart would be algorithmically slated to happen to GME around the summer. HOWEVER, this is not a perfect correlation. Conservatively speaking here, we have a moderate correlation, meaning that there could be a variety of other factors that could delay that part in the algorithm, possibly prolonging a run up of that magnitude many more months out. It's important to proceed with caution, as to balance your expectations. Nevertheless, I see GME's algorithm slated to eventually have the giant run up in price sometime this year comparable to what BRN had in the beginning of this year, and as we already know, a run up of that magnitude will open the doors to extreme FOMO and uncontrollable price action, ultimately leading to: MOASS. + +**§4:** **Market Crash** + +Speaking of algorithms, let’s talk about the algorithmic movement of the S&P 500. + +There’s only so much that the government/institutions can do to artificially inflate the market until the inevitable crash comes, and it appears that time is approaching soon. + +I came across a post by Ape "choochoomthfka", who analyzed and compared the current S&P 500 price movements with that of 2008 and discovered algorithmic correlations that are pointing to a possible crash around the end of May, and just like the VW squeeze that came soon after the 2008 crash, the GME MOASS would come soon after the 2022 crash. + +His statement: “I’ve independently confirmed the S&P chart overlay of 2008 & today for myself. The similarity is indeed striking, but I just wanted to alert apes to the fact that the progression is \~4.4x faster today than in 2008. If indeed similar, the big crash is \~May 20th and the squeeze \~May 25th.” + +https://preview.redd.it/guhhw5vdbnw81.png?width=699&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed1b39c3007eca21cd1adcc8cacaac4de103cc2a + +This also goes in line with what we're seeing with the Buffet Indicator: + +https://preview.redd.it/1bhhp0afbnw81.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=62827e2648f87f9704cb77d55713dca5d8021d19 + +Now, although I agree that the current S&P price is likely being algorithmically controlled (via PPT, institutions, etc.), I don’t want to promote dates. The truth is that we aren’t entirely sure when the crash will happen. With a very strong confidence interval, I could say it will happen this year, but to say it will happen exactly near the end of May, I cannot. There can easily be wide standard deviations associated with these market algorithms that prevent us from pinpointing an exact date. For all we know, there’s unaccounted variables that could allow the algorithm to delay the market crash another 3 or 4 months after May. The algorithm simply optimizes the most strategic move. That’s all. If the S&P can no longer afford to be can kicked longer than June, the algorithm will signal and allow for the market to finally crash in June. However, if an externality shows up and changes the variables, it could delay things. + +All I’m saying is don’t get attached to specific dates. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 is following a similar pattern to 2008 that indicates a high likelihood of a market crash for 2022. As you may know, a market crash begets extreme loss in collateral for SHFs, triggering margin calls, and as such, MOASS. It’s important to note, though, that similarly to VW, GME might initially drop in tandem with a market crash, only taking off in the opposite direction as soon as shorts start closing their positions, due to failure to meet a margin call. + +Federal rate hikes, China’s real estate market conundrum, 8.5% inflation rate (as of March, 2022), unprecedented records of margin debt, exponential increase in mortgage-backed security failures, spikes in credit default swaps, the Feds cracking down on unsustainable overleveraged positions from hedge funds, regulatory agencies/clearing corporations filing rules preparing for defaulting members, etc., are all additional signs adding to a likely market crash this year. + +**§5:** **Stock Split Dividend** + +I explained this in my [Checkmate](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/txnwhu/checkmate/) DD, so I won’t be going over it too much here. + +Basically, a 7:1 stock split (in the form of a dividend) would likely lead to MOASS, due to the fact that SHFs can’t come up with 6 times the amount of synthetics that they produced over the entirety of GME’s life within a relatively short time frame. This is why TSLA ran like crazy after they proposed their stock split dividend. Even if there was some sort of hidden loophole that they exploited, post-split dividend, we can expect FOMO (buying/DRS’ing pressure) to increase substantially, due to a significantly more affordable price. + +**§6:** **NFT Marketplace** + +The NFT Market was valued at $40 billion in 2021, [per Chainalysis Inc. report](https://content.techgig.com/technology-unplugged/nft-market-touched-40-billion-in-2021-new-estimate-shows/articleshow/88773041.cms). + +Considering GameStop’s market cap is valued at $10 billion, there’s a lot of potential revenue GameStop can tap into by entering this market. Not only that, but as time goes on and crypto/NFTs become more globalized, the NFT Market can easily exponentially increase in valuation, similarly to how Bitcoin did when it started getting adopted by institutions internationally as a store of value. + +OpenSea, currently the world’s largest NFT Marketplace, is valued over $13 billion, [according to Sephton at “CoinMarketCap Alexandria”](https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/opensea-now-has-a-valuation-of-13-3-billion). + +Yet, the OpenSea NFT Marketplace is incommensurable to the soon to be GME NFT Marketplace, due to a variety of reasons: + +1. OpenSea has extremely high gas fees, which deter business/revenue through their services and creates dead weight loss. +2. Weak security protocols. They have tons of vulnerabilities in their code that make them susceptible to attacks/thefts. Many examples in the past of OpenSea users suing the Marketplace for letting their NFTS get stolen by cyber thieves due to their “security vulnerabilities”. +3. GameStop gets nearly 1,000x more organic traffic via search engines than OpenSea does. + +GME succeeds where OpenSea fails, by utilizing its partnerships with Loopring & Immutable X to eliminate high gas fees as well as reinforce security, using Ethereum’s security rather than Polygon’s (etc.). GameStop’s NFT Marketplace will not only supersede, but augment the NFT Market as the dominant NFT Marketplace. + +That being said, GME’s market cap is already $10 billion. Say they get in the NFT Market in the summer and hit a valuation just half that of OpenSea this year. GME would end up with a high enough valuation putting itself past a $200 price. Maintaining a GME price past $200 would obliterate critical margin levels at this point, initiating MOASS. + +In case you haven’t noticed, something very big is gearing up this year, and I don’t think RC bought extremely OTM BBBY calls this year just for the fun of it. + +Very large partnerships with blue chip companies may be revealed upon implementation of the GME NFT Marketplace, and I believe we saw hints of it back in February: + +https://preview.redd.it/d28t4wdhbnw81.png?width=777&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9cc8c25a664c6db7833837ccefcd03420bf6a23 + +I’m going to end with this: there were tons of complaints (likely from shills) that RC has been so secretive about the NFT Marketplace. If you have something REALLY good on your hands, are you going to go out and tell everyone? No. You wait until the time is right to present it. Companies that don’t have anything good on their hands will be all talk, nothing much to present. The talking would come to just fluff their position and provide a façade to investors. RC is the exact opposite personality. This project has been in the works for the past year, and I genuinely believe when it delivers that it will exceed expectations. + +This NFT Marketplace, once implemented (and any additional hidden partnerships announced), could be a very big driver for FOMO soon after, ultimately breaking shorts’ banks and kickstarting MOASS. + +**§7:** **DRS** + +I've explained this before in §3 of my [We Are Unstoppable](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/t3zp4h/we_are_unstoppable/) DD. The Price Suppression Quandary. + +"If the price of GME exceeds a certain point, margin calls will ensue, starting a snowball effect which will lead to MOASS. The more they short, the more money they lose, the more margin requirements pose a problem to them, and the more they will need a lower price. + +Now, if the price of GME declines too low, as I’ve demonstrated in “§ 1: Relentless Dip Buying”, Apes will double, triple, quadruple, etc., their ability to buy up the float and register it. + +Example: Let’s say, at the price of $120, it will take 10 months to lock 100% of the float. If SHFs decrease the price to $60, it will now take 5 months to lock 100% of the float. $30? 2.5 months. $15? A little over a month. By taking the price down so much, they effectively accelerate their demise, which is why they need a higher price. + +This is also not including any outside entities purchasing the dip (e.g. institutions, pension funds, or even angel investors, such as RC, Musk, etc.)." + +This is at the basic level. In reality, a price at $40 or below could technically allow GameStop to lock up the rest of the float themselves with their cash on hand, so it would immediately be game over if SHFs tried to pull off something like that. The more time that goes on, however, the less and less room SHFs have to breathe. Their margin call threshold is getting tighter each month that goes by. For example, back in June, their critical margin levels were around $350, meaning a sustained underlying close above $350 would've likely have led to margin calls/MOASS. As several months have gone by and they've burnt through so much cash with the stock that's only been getting harder to short every month, the critical margin levels that would beget margin calls now lies around $200-$210, which is why GME was halted around $200 this March, and SHFs threw everything they had once trading resumed in an attempt to regain control of the price. Their situation will continue to get more difficult as the number of registered shares increases. + +Every share DRS'ed crunches down the float of available shares, and strengthens the bullish indicators. SHFs cannot sustain this indefinitely, as the pressure of DRS'ed shares continues to build until an eventual snap of the algorithm, taking Apes straight to the moon. + +**§8:** **DOJ Investigations** + +When GameStop's 10Q came out on December 8, 2021, for the first time, this came up (pg. 14): + +https://preview.redd.it/btsr9vtibnw81.png?width=781&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e103a2d053782050d40d36b58424341919a7f4d + +A few days after that was published, this happened: + +https://preview.redd.it/f2wj9frjbnw81.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=29028b506fe0430f060a38d55361f5b08683b241 + +Now, is it a coincidence that the DOJ immediately [launched a criminal investigation](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-doj-launches-expansive-probe-into-short-selling-bloomberg-news-2021-12-10/) into SHFs soon after GameStop's 10Q published, showing registered shares from Apes? Maybe, maybe not. But, I've talked about this happening way before the DOJ even launched an investigation. + +From my past DD [Mountains of GME Synthetic Shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxljfb/the_numbers_are_in_mountains_of_gme_synthetic/): + +“I expect the closer we get to locking 100% of the float, the stronger the pressure the government will feel to taking initiative themselves, as once the float is 100% locked, there's no going back, and the entire world will witness the synthetics shitshow that will reveal itself and completely undermine the market's regulatory bodies. Moreover, as we also get closer to locking up the float, shorting GME back down will be a lot more costly and difficult for SHFs to do, which is why it's highly likely to me that the MOASS will start before the entire float gets locked up.” + +I strongly believe that the DOJ has had enough of SHFs putting the economy in jeopardy, and that is self-evident with their race to begin indictments before the float gets locked. + +[From the Washington post recently](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/27/bill-hwang-arrest-archegos/): + +https://preview.redd.it/pbxboo9lbnw81.png?width=683&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6fe64adceb96f8c49ecad91fc62dcbfd8cbe4c1 + +Hwang isn't the only one. I urge Apes to read into [the DOJ's press release a few days ago](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/four-charged-connection-multibillion-dollar-collapse-archegos-capital-management). It's got really juicy info. Other indictments include Patrick Halligan, Archegos' CFO (charged with racketeering/fraud). Also, co-conspirators Scott Becker and William Tomita were indicted. If the judge were to throw the book at them, they'd practically end up with life in prison. + +I want to share excerpts of the DOJ's press release here, just because it's so good: + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +“We allege that these defendants and their co-conspirators lied to banks to obtain billions of dollars that they then used to inflate the stock price of a number of publicly-traded companies,” said U.S. Attorney Williams. “The lies fed the inflation, and the inflation led to more lies. Round and round it went. **In one year, Hwang allegedly turned a $1.5 billion portfolio and pumped it up into a $35 billion portfolio. But last year, the music stopped. The bubble burst. The prices dropped. And when they did, billions of dollars of capital evaporated nearly overnight.**” + +\[...\] + +**Today’s charges highlight our commitment to making sure the investment arena remains free from fraudulent activity of all kinds.**”   + +\[...\] + +**Last year, when the prices fell, Hwang’s positions were sold off and he could no longer manipulate the prices, and billions of dollars of capital evaporated nearly overnight.** + +\[...\] + +**The indictment further alleges that in order to get the billions of dollars Archegos needed to sustain this market manipulation scheme,** **Hwang and his co-conspirators lied to and misled some of Wall Street’s leading banks about how big Archegos’s investments had become, how much cash Archegos had on hand and the nature of the stocks that Archegos held. As alleged, they told those lies so that the banks would have no idea what Archegos was really up to, how risky the portfolio was, and what would happen if the market turned.** + +As alleged, just over a year ago, the market turned and the stock prices Hwang and his co-conspirators had artificially inflated crashed, **causing immense damage to U.S. financial markets and ordinary investors.** In a matter of days, the companies at the center of Archegos’s trading scheme lost more than $100 billion in market capitalization, Archegos owed billions of dollars more than it had on hand, and Archegos collapsed. Market participants who purchased the relevant stocks at artificial prices lost the value they believed their investments held, the banks lost billions of dollars, and Archegos employees, many of whom were required to invest 25% or more of their bonuses with Archegos as deferred compensation, lost millions of dollars. + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +This is a very big deal. It's also definitive proof that SHFs lie about how much money they've been making by overly inflating their positions. + +I remember in the past, sometimes shills would post articles that said "Kenny made 'x' amount of money recently," or "this month was such a profitable month for 'x' SHF. Apes aren't making a dent on SHFs' portfolios!" I knew it was all BS. But then those same shills try to gaslight you, saying things like "oh, you're against reality" or "get back to the real world". Well, this is the real world, bitches. The DOJ indicted this financial terrorist for racketeering, fraud, and artificially inflating his positions. Moreover, our decision to call these guys financial terrorists is completely warranted. The DOJ literally just stated in the press release, I quote, "the market turned and the stock prices Hwang and his co-conspirators had artificially inflated crashed, causing immense damage to U.S. financial markets and ordinary investors". Financial terrorism defined. + +Also in February, it was revealed that among the many SHFs the DOJ is investigating include Melvin Capital as well as Citron Research. Melvin Capital recently issued an apology to its investors and has been doing shady things to hide from their past. + +Usually, the DOJ goes for the less significant ones first, once they catch a few rats that snitch, they can then work their way up the chain and expand the investigation. + +A lot of shady, unexplained behavior has happened since the DOJ investigation has gone on, from buildings burning down rumored to have in possession documents related to criminal misdeeds of brokers/SHFs, to executives inexplicably stepping down from Citadel and other institutions. + +After Michael Bodson recently announced he's stepping down from his position as President of the DTCC, along with billionaire Archegos owner, Bill Hwang, being indicted, I made this comment trying to connect the dots as to why these big players are now hiding from their past and/or stepping down from their positions: + +https://preview.redd.it/5wly0a7nbnw81.png?width=679&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4ae87f503ca7153ac82c77775847599aa826e2c + +According to [computershared.net](https://computershared.net/), nearly 35% of the float has been locked by Apes within 8 months \[September, 2021-April, 2022\], and over 70% of ALL outstanding shares have been locked. + +The fact that over 70% of all outstanding GME shares have been locked should be raising alarm bells for the gov., which would explain why serious action is being taken now. If the DOJ's data scientists determine there's a too high risk of the float potentially getting locked by the end of the year, they will initiate MOASS before then. If they have to shut down Citadel and force close positions before all the shares get registered, they will. They're not standing idly by while 100% of the float gets locked. Financial terrorists like Kenneth Cordele Griffin are threatening the stability and longevity of the entire U.S financial market, and consequently, the global economy. Kenny & Co. are a threat to national security, a threat that will be neutralized by the DOJ before they let the float get 100% locked. + +https://i.redd.it/bvuuk8utbnw81.gif + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Additional Citations: + +Buda, Andrzej. “Life Time of Correlation between Stocks Prices on Established and Emerging Markets.” *Arxiv.org*, Cornell, May 2011, [https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.6272.pdf](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1105/1105.6272.pdf). + +Department of Justice (April 27, 2022). *Four Charged in Connection with Multibillion-Dollar Collapse of Archegos Capital Management*. Available at: [https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/four-charged-connection-multibillion-dollar-collapse-archegos-capital-management](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/four-charged-connection-multibillion-dollar-collapse-archegos-capital-management). + +“Schedule 13D.” *SEC Filing | RC Ventures.*, SEC, 7 Mar. 2022, [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000886158/000119380522000426/sc13d13351002\_03072022.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000886158/000119380522000426/sc13d13351002_03072022.htm). + +Schultz, Paul, Short Squeezes and Their Consequences (February 3, 2022). Available at SSRN: [https://ssrn.com/abstract=4025226](https://ssrn.com/abstract=4025226) or [http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4025226](https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4025226). + +“SEC Filing: Gamestop Corp..” *SEC Filing | Gamestop Corp.*, SEC, 8 Dec. 2021, [https://news.gamestop.com/node/19686/html](https://news.gamestop.com/node/19686/html). + +“SEC Filing: Gamestop Corp..” *SEC Filing | Gamestop Corp*., SEC, 17 Mar. 2022, [https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/19651/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/19651/html). +Y’all I have never made this much money in my life. I don’t know what it’s like to be able to put money in savings only to not have to pull it out almost immediately. This is life changing. I am so excited. + +EDIT: Wow I wasn’t expecting this to blow up- THANK YOU for all the upvotes, the awards and the excellent advice I’ve received!! + +To answer some of your questions, I took this position back in March, as an assistant in an administrative/ accounting type capacity. I’d had about five years of related experience. My immediate supervisor abruptly resigned in June, and I stepped in to fill the role. In the process I discovered hundreds of thousands of dollars in discrepancies (which I have managed to mostly correct.). My initial salary offer (the 2k raise) was made before these problems came to light and it was supposed to take place at the beginning of the year. + +I am not rich by any means not even after the increase- I went from making low five figures to mid range five figures, but the increase is probably all the more significant because it boosts me and my kids from “low income” into “living wage” territory. It’s thrilling for me to see some light at the end of the paycheck-to-paycheck tunnel after years of being dead broke and unable to even afford normal basics. + +Yes I am paying this forward already (see my comment history for details). + +And yes- I am meeting with the company’s financial advisor (they provide one free to employees) to determine my best course of action moving forward as I don’t have much experience with saving successfully. I am determined to build a nest egg and buy a house as soon as I can. +I know what a loss leader strategy is. There are plenty of articles explaining what it is but none that explain how a corporation determines when loss leaders are worth it. + +They probably know an opportunity cost exists for not offering their loss leaders but how do they calculate what it is? Can they test two locations with and without the loss leader (but how do they control for numerous other factors)? Can they compare YoY numbers (but what if those organically increases YoY)? + +Public companies are especially interesting because they are legally obligated to maximize profits so how can any policies besides cost cutting and increasing margins be enacted much less kept around? + +Thanks for your insight. +Currently work in an exceptionally high pressure field as a manager and frontline customer service personal. Very time sensitive and strict line of work with many different and demanding "bosses"(customers, insurance partners, actual bosses) to appease. + +My workplace is a 70km round trip commute(which I loathe). I am essential personal and expected to man my post regardless of weather conditions or conflicts/complications in my personal life. In 10 years I have missed less than 10 days of work. + +Monday to Friday I leave my house at 6:30AM and do not return until 6:30PM or later. Frequently I am working beyond that, 12-14hrs a day if the work volume so demands. I often remote connect to my work conputer from home on the weekends and evenings. The workload is overwhealming as I am the only person in my workplace who handles the type of work I do. Every customer, and every phonecall is more piled on to an already overflowing plate. + +Generally speaking, I have a strong distain for my workplace, customers and employer. I feel totally burned out and complacent. + +That being said, I have a salary of $65k+ with benefits, which from my limited perspective is pretty good. + +I have an offer to move to a large multinational insurance company. The office is a 4km commute from my home, the hours are 8-4 and the workload would be a fraction of whats currently demanded of me. The only hang up Im having is the $20k+ pay decrease I would face. + +Base salary for the position would be $42.5k with an increase to $45k(plus pension and benefits) after 6 months. + +I know for my mental health the change would be a good thing, but I am so hung up about the salary disparity. + +I truely feel like a wage slave. + +Could anyone ring in with an outside perspective to aid in clearing my mind? + +Thanks PF community. + +Edit: Holy jeeze this got a heap of response, I am trying to answer everyone, sorry if I dont get you to promptly! +Mentions over there for CRSR have shot up, along with a bunch of DDs posted the last few days which have been getting a lot of attention. Seems like they are primed to pile in this week, and we all know how that goes. I’m gonna close out my covered calls first thing in the morning tomorrow, because this thing might get wild. +So many. So so many new accounts spamming bullshit It is driving me insane. Oh this seemingly innocuous account is hyping a particular stock let's take a look. Less than a week old and pretty much the only comments they make is hyping those stocks. I sincerely despise this whole meme stock debacle. The whole site is annoying now, because everybody had the same brilliant idea that if you can manipulate retail look how much money we can make. If this is you and you're out there go away. For the love of God just go away. +I may be wrong about this, but why does it seem like there is a conflict of interest between what's best for individual finance vs the economy? For example, it's best for a person to live frugally and use the most money to invest (education, health, retirement, etc.); whereas, it's better for the economy if everybody spends all of their money on not just essential but also luxurious goods. A society where people save more than they spend is a deflationary one. Likewise, a society where people invest more than they spend would probably cause a market bubble since more people buying a company's stock than it's product just drives its PE ratio through the roof + +Another example is having kids is expensive. It's best for a poor couple to not have kids or only one if they want to get out of poverty as fast as possible. However, in economics, every couple should have 2 kids to sustain the future workforce and consumer spending. +Jim Cramer has made 21,609 stock picks in the past 5 years! Let that sink in for a moment. Here is one person, making buy/sell/hold recommendations on more than 2,200+ different stocks across all types of industries. On average, he was making more than 20 picks per episode of his show \[1\]. This is a staggering number of picks to be made by one person! \[2\] + +While we can all argue about his expertise in making recommendations on such a wide array of industries and companies, what I wanted to know was: + +1. **How accurate were his recommendations?** +2. **Would you have made or lost money if you followed them?** +3. **Can you beat the market following his picks?** + +So it’s high time that we put Cramer to the ultimate test and end the debate about his usefulness once and for all! + +**Analysis** + +The data about all the stock picks made by Cramer are available [here](https://madmoney.thestreet.com/screener/index.cfm) \[3\]. The picks are classified into five segments (Buy, Hold, Sell, Positive/Negative mention). I have calculated the return for each segment separately \[4\] so that we can know what to focus on if we are trying to replicate this strategy. + +Since Cramer frequently contradicts his own picks and is mainly focused on short-term trades, I am only analyzing the stock returns for the following periods \[5\]. + +a. One-day + +b. One-Week + +c. One-Month + +Given that Mad Money (Cramer’s Show) airs after the market closes, I have used the opening price of the next day for my calculations. (I.e If Cramer makes a recommendation on Thursday night, I use Friday opening price as the base for my calculations) + +All the data used in the calculations are shared at the end. + +&#x200B; + +**Results** + +https://preview.redd.it/itrm7dpzn2a81.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2d3a98949ec48b9b068d2d8aeedf49837312ce3 + +1-day performance of Cramer’s recommendations is excellent! On average, the Buy and Positive mention stocks went up by 0.03 and 0.05% respectively, and sell and negative mention stocks went down by 0.1 and 0.02%. + +Another interesting fact is that ***you would not have lost money*** if you followed Cramer’s Buy recommendations. Across the time periods, his Buy recommendations have on average netted you positive returns \[6\]! + +His sell recommendations did not pan out so well. Even though they dropped in price the next day, over the next week and month, they returned inline or even better than his buy recommendations! + +Given that there is a counter-intuitive trend in the returns, let’s calculate the accuracy of his calls. + +https://preview.redd.it/uyvba0c4o2a81.png?width=792&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5dde0f8578598dacc41ace2ebc6cfdcee8bfcde + +Here I am assigning a call as correct based on price change. If he gives a buy recommendation, I expect the price to go up and vice versa. As we can see from the chart above, his recommendations only do slightly better than a coin-toss. Even this only holds for short-term and buy recommendations with long-term sell recommendation performance dropping below 50% \[7\]. + +While this narrow edge over the 50% mark can be used by algo-traders who have the ability to trade a large amount of stocks, if you are an average investor listening in on a Cramer show and hear about a stock recommendation, you might as well toss a coin to see if you should invest or not! + +Finally, it’s time we pit **Cramer against the market**. Do his recommendations beat the market? + +https://preview.redd.it/p6foy9b5o2a81.png?width=1020&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1118daa78331deec390466759908ccbecebb2e6 + +Oh yeah! I was as surprised with the results as you are. I ran the numbers again and then one more time but got the exact same result! Cramer’s Buy recommendations beat the S&P 500 by a factor of 10 for the **one-day time frame**. But, if you held the stocks for anytime longer, you would have underperformed the market significantly. + +Before you go daytrade on his recommendations you should know that the numbers we are seeing here are heavily influenced by outliers. If you miss out on the top 1% of recommendations (\~110 stocks out of the 11,000+ buy recommendations he had made), your **1-day return would be -0.062% instead of +0.034** \[8\]. + +**Limitations of the analysis** + +The analysis has some limitations that you should be aware of before trying to replicate the strategy. + +1. As the astute among you might have noticed, if you sum up all the stocks used in the analysis it would only come to 18.5k. I removed \~15% of the overall recommendations as either they did not have stock data present in Yahoo Finance/Alpha Vantage or the price data did not match with the one given on the Mad Money website. +2. The data is obtained from the Mad Money website itself. I haven’t manually verified if the calls recorded on the website are in fact an accurate representation of the calls made by Cramer in his show. The below statement is given in their description and I am taking them on their word. + +>We are impartial in our recording and simply log exactly what was said. We do not interpret the calls. If a call is vague or in question we simply won't list it. + +**Conclusion** + +No matter the public opinion on Cramer, we can generate excellent 1-day returns following his buy recommendations (even beating the market in doing so!). Whether it’s due to his superior stock picking ability or whether it’s simply due to self-fulfilling prophecy \[9\] (as he has a wide audience who will act on his advice) is yet to be known. + +I would bet on the latter as, if the extraordinary one-day returns were in fact due to his superior stock-picking ability, the returns should have held over longer time periods, and also his sell recommendations would not have ended up performing better than his buy recommendations as we are observing here. + +It only makes sense to listen to his advice if you are a day-trader or an algo-trader who is trading a large variety of stocks over short periods of time. For everyone else, just sticking to the S&P 500 would give you better returns over the long run! + +**Data** + +Excel file containing all the Recommendations and Financial data: [**Here**](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d0mooS_qsfePXChEDq2IDov_of_TFvD1/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=111668650548288730122&rtpof=true&sd=true) + +**Live tracker** containing the performance of Cramer’s 2021 picks: [**Here**](https://rows.com/market-sentiment/my-spreadsheets/untitled-spreadsheet-3-5C58Ix9kx1ixB0cM52DWZi/live) \[10\] (I will be updating this file regularly so that you can see his performance in real-time whenever you want to!) + +**Footnotes and existing research** + +**\[1\]** For those who don’t know, Cramer makes his picks in a CNBC show called [Mad Money](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Money). Cramer himself defines the show as something which should be used for speculative/high-risk investing and not for your retirement portfolio. + +**\[2\]** For comparison purposes, an equity research analyst [covers only 10-25 companies](https://whatforwork.com/jobs/equity-research-analyst-sell-side/). + +**\[3\]** It’s not in an easily usable format. I had to parse the data from the webpage using Python (Beautiful Soup) - I have shared all the data used in this analysis as an Excel and Rows file at the end. + +**\[4\]** I did not calculate for Hold as he only made 27 hold recommendations, which is lower than what is required for a statistical significance. + +**\[5\]** In my [last post about Jim Cramer](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mtehdq/i_analyzed_all_700_buy_and_sell_recommendations/), there was a lot of controversy around how I calculated the time period. So here is the detailed version about how the time period is considered. For One-Day returns, we are considering that we will purchase the stock the next trading day after the market opens and then sells it at the end of the trading day. For weekly and monthly returns, I am using adjusted closing price since across a week or month there can be stock splits as well as dividends. + +**\[6\]** This can also be attributed to the market rally we have experienced over the last 5 years where a large majority of stocks went up. + +**\[7\]** 50% benchmark might be controversial with a lot of you (I agree given that if we are in a bull market there is more than a 50-50 chance of a stock going up tomorrow) → My rationale here is standing today looking at a stock, there are only two things that can happen tomorrow. It can either go up or go down. I assign equal probability to both given anything can happen tomorrow. The market can turn bearish, positive or negative news about the company can come up, etc. If you have a better logic for a benchmark, please do suggest! + +**\[8\]** But to be fair to Cramer, this is applicable to all types of Investment strategies and hedge funds! The performance of a few of the stocks in your portfolio will finally end up heavily influencing the returns of your overall portfolio. → Think of Tesla incase of ARK and FAANG in case of S&P 500. + +**\[9\]** There is some [existing research](https://scholarship.tricolib.brynmawr.edu/handle/10066/588) that deep dives into this topic. + +**\[10\]** Since it’s a live tracker using data from Alpha Vantage, the calculation is done slightly differently than in the analysis (in the live tracker I had to use the closing price on the day of recommendation instead of the opening price of the next day). I will be updating it to follow the same process as the analysis as soon as I get info from Alpha Vantage. +Are we still in a bubble? It seems like housing takes several years of a person's income to be able to afford, putting people in debt for maybe decades at a time. This is so overwhelming it honestly seems unsustainable, and yet houses keep going up and up without seemingly never stopping and people getting more and more into debt or renting. + +Why is this the case, and what would it take for houses to become affordable again? It seems to be possible, given that houses were affordable a couple of decades back. + +("Affordable" means less than 5 years of someone's income, or at the very least not being indebted to someone for more than 10 years). + +EDIT: People have talked about the U.S.but I think this is a worldwide problem, in my case, I'm in Mexico. If I could get a house loan for a 3% interest I'd be getting it right now, but I don't know if this is a possibility everywhere else. +In light of articles saying they had an '*eye on social media*', we made a pro-active step and contacted the **ASIC** in September 2020. No response was received other than a receipt of message, so we simply continued along our merry way. + +When we followed up a few months later, we were informed our offer of communication (including a Mods personal email and phone number) had been 'non actioned' and subsequently closed. + +Advice from the **ASIC** on the second call was that we should contact them again if we really needed to (including providing a specific group to call). Again, no news is good news. + +&#x200B; + +A little over a week ago, we were contacted by a person claiming to be representing **ASIC**. We have a verification process for whenever someone contacts the Mods claiming to be somebody. After their identity was confirmed, we were advised the purpose of the contact was a non specific meeting to see the lay of the land. + +The Mods conferred, it was decided that one Mod would happily attend via phone. Apparently no investigation is happening, this was a friendly chat and it was not recorded by **ASIC**. + +&#x200B; + +A few questions were asked, but just to clarify and maintain our transparency, we thought we'd answer them here too. + +The actual meet up was over the phone, only one mod was present. + +The questions below are listed from memory and subsequent Mod dialogue. + +&#x200B; + +**What do you get paid?** + +Nothing. + +Sweet fuck all to be precise, just doing it for the love and tears of spammers. A Quality shit-post now and then also does wonders for morale. + +Initially, One of the Mods did pay for a few things out of their own pocket (*The Koala and Banner, designers and base art aren't free, even if they got it for mates rates*). + +In lieu of this and to put out some funnies for the Autistic crowd to call their own, a shitty merch store was set up via RedBubble. Once that debt is paid, they are considering to shut the shop, unless another person starts trying to skim money by stealing the Koala. + +Mods have a rule you may or may not be aware of. We do not accept gifts, donations, payments, and any associated funny business. Sexual favours will not get you special treatment, just deep disappointment. Any time we are offered something, we suggest the user spend that money on a donation to charity instead. Someone shilling generally and offering Discounts and offers of 200 free accounts to **the entire sub** are fine, but mod only stuff is a no no. Though beers have been bought for mods (and others) at meetups and someone probably got a pizza once. + +We do not enter the competitions we allow to be run on the Sub. + +As a general guide, we avoid shilling our own stonks, in actual fact when a post pops up concerning a ticker a Mod is invested in, we often try to flag it in our mod chat and one of the other Mods makes the call on it. (keep/delete/re-flair etc...). Mods can still delete each others posts. + +Even if we dont mention a stonk to each other, there are still multiple mods. Trash and pump is still trash and pump. It will get deleted. If trash is being approved, questions will be asked by other mods. + +We occasionally gamble on shitty stocks we see shilled here, generally only to skulk away and lament our own foolishness. + +&#x200B; + +**How much time do you spend doing this?** + +&#x200B; + +Mods might spend anywhere between 3-12 hours a week moderating the sub. Cut up into 5-10 minute blocks. Yes people, you got your no effort post deleted while the mod was sitting down on the toilet. + +When there is a major problem or huge spikes in interest (BRNageddon/GME/Any fucking time Z1P goes up etc...) Mod's can spend up to double this amount sorting it out. + +This isn't always fun and can be pretty demanding, but its a reality of the role. Remember, there is a large volume you don't see via mod mail and other requests that come in. + +&#x200B; + +**Does every post get Pre-approved by a mod?** + +&#x200B; + +No way. This isn't our job. That's not how the internet works. + +We just don't have time to approve everything that people say, plus we don't want too. The sub would become an extension filter of the stuff Mod's wanted to see only. Think of all the shit you would not have been subjected to if this was the case, can you imagine a world where we deprived you of logging on to see what people were buying and ended up watching some dude drink his own jizz? Nah, that job goes to the mod who drew the short straw. Other mods still haven't seen that video. + +Also, that would mean we have to review everything immediately. News of something Mooning or crashing would be delayed spreading and no one could act while the approver had a look and furrowed their brow while pondering whether to say yes. What do we look like? A Commsec Options account? + +Plus, the reddit downvote function provides a small assistance to us. If someone is just pumping or spamming, the downvoters will prevent that clogging up everyone's feeds anyway until we get to it. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**How fast can you respond to a post?** + +&#x200B; + +Often within 1-2 hours, a mod has looked over things. Often it's much faster. We largely use Sort by New. Reddit does do strange stuff with sorting, but this usually means things get caught. + +We also have mod-mail, which provides alerts to Mods who have it set up right. Certain apps don't actually do this correctly, so it's not a surefire way to get an immediate alert to a mod, but it will get looked at. We also get reports, which are flagged to us when we look at the sub. + +The best and fastest way to contact a mod has and will always be tagging them on the post by their username. + +&#x200B; + +**How can you respond to people doing dodgy stuff?** + +&#x200B; + +As swiftly as possible. People just doing low quality memes and being a bit too enthusiastic so as to make us slightly suspicious simply get deleted. But if there appears to be any coordinated posts etc, we will often get modmails, chats or people @ us. If multiple posts with the same text appear, that is a dead giveaway. For bad behaviour, we might give people a warning flair, while banning the alts. If they misbehave again, they will go for a temporary or permanent ban. + +&#x200B; + +The more co-ordinated the event, the more aggressive we are. It's hard to prove pumping or co-ordination, so we tend to be careful about flat out banning. + +&#x200B; + +We have had an attempted pump when a discussion group off the subreddit went from hysterical enthusiasm for a stock (which is fine) to planning a pump. We stopped it before the pump was supposed to happen, partially to ensure no actual laws were broken, (i.e no market manipulation **ASIC**). + +The ringleader was banned, plus the people involved were, ranging from short bans for fellow travellers to longer ones for people who clearly knew what they were a part of when it went to the dark side. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you choose mods?** + +&#x200B; + +Basically through a process of being aware that we need a new mod because the load is too high and we start reviewing who appears to be acting in an adult way, or at least a childish way but appears to actually be an Adult inside. While we are welcoming to all, including morons, we don't want them to be mods. + +Every mod was looked over carefully before being offered the spot. Only one mod had offered their services before being chosen, but they were already on view as a possible. People who look like they might abuse the position are not chosen. + +Everyone, do not ask us to become a mod. Don't call us, we'll call you. + +&#x200B; + +**Does the Mod team agree on everything? Is** /u/The_lordofruin **the boss?** + +&#x200B; + +No and no. + +While a mod is very new, their access is not fully active. But as long as they don't misbehave, they have the same access as the others mods within a few weeks. Think of it like a probationary period. + +There is a single common chat channel that the mods use for 99% of their communication, though 1 on 1 does happen. Previously, there were other channels when there were far fewer mods. But these channels are rarely used now except for sending files and information back and forth that reddit doesn't handle well. + +We have a group email account separate to the sub, also shared spreadsheets and other bits and pieces to assist us with all thing modding. + +95% of descisions made by mods are unilateral. + +They see shit and they delete shit. If something looks like it needs an alert to everyone (like co-ordinated pumpers or a user not quite crossing the line, but still being a dick and likely a future problem), then the other mods are alerted. + +Over time, Different mods have fallen into different roles. One mod does a lot of ban post co-ordination, another does automod, another tends to do Commenting, Another does most of the flairs and another likes killing bots and sock puppets. + +Mixed in with this is their general activities, you would expect a group over time to evolve into these types of roles. + +&#x200B; + +Unlike how certain larger subreddits operate, we do not have an inner party and an outer party of mods. + +/u/The_lordofruin is a major poster and is sometimes requested as a particular "oh no...Mum/Dad is here." scary alert Mod. But that's largely a matter of history and that certain other mods do not like too much attention. As you would expect, the mods who have been around longer are afforded a level of respect both within the sub and the Mod circle. They have probably seen it before, they have had more time programming auto-mod, are more familiar with the sub etc etc... + +But the Elder Mods are not the bosses, the mods work together but aren't a monolithic unit and when we disagree on a certain course of action or direction, group consensus prevails. + +&#x200B; + +People who do not mod are likely not aware of it, but if you are a mod, Reddit allows scheduled posts. One mod can draft something, schedule the post to be released the next day. Another mod can then go in, edit and expand that post before it goes live. This means multiple mods are actually the Author, but it only goes under one user. + +Case in point, multiple Mods have read this post and either edited or approved it prior to it going live. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you keep the mods from misusing their power?** + +&#x200B; + +There is a mod log thats kept up, tracking all things done by the mods. + +In theory, a mod could misuse it, but if something is deleted then a user can use mod-mail or message another mod. The other mods would get an alert, then review the post in question. Eventually questions would get asked. Mods sometimes will say "I'm in XYZ, I'm too close. You guys decide if this is a reasonable post or if I'm too close and this is actually shit." + +&#x200B; + +As with any group, trust plays a role. The more time the current mod group spends refining their craft, the better we are at maintaining the culture here at r/ASX_Bets. + +&#x200B; + +In theory, certain mods can close the entire sub and say Fuck you all. However, they have their episode of '*going mad with power*' scheduled for next Full moon, not today. Right after they finished crying that their biggest holdings have not mooned despite 3 years being balls deep. \[That hurts you bastard- other mod editing this\] + +&#x200B; + +**Why is there lots of text in Greek? Is it some trick being used to hide messages and bypass the Automod?** + +&#x200B; + +**hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!** + +&#x200B; + +It's a long long story that actually needed explaining to **ASIC**. Yes, they really did ask this seriously. + +It's actually an '*in*' joke because some idiot took a random Greek article as evidence **BRN** was going to moon. This article was just a random article, but the joke developed that people will believe anything they read in Greek. + +It's still going on 6 months later, not the mooning, the Greek joke. If you have been here longer than 5 minutes, you will know we have other jokes too. You know, cause jokes are funny and shit, not fucking advice to be taken literally.... + +&#x200B; + +**Any questions for ASIC?** + +&#x200B; + +*Why are options on the ASX not quoted by market makers*? + +\- Since you can do this with professional trading systems and services easily, it looks like it creates a misbalance in the market between retail and institutions. This was actually requested by multiple mods. Apparently this question was not immediately answerable, but they have noted it. + +&#x200B; + +From here on, if you see an account claiming to be **ASIC** and they have the Flair "Official ASIC Account. For Real. Seriously." then that is them. + +&#x200B; + +**Summary:** + +At this point, we don't really have that much to tell anyone. + +We had left a joke in the FAQ and forgotten about it which mentioned Rockets equaling winning, which has been deleted upon request. Otherwise, they don't seem to have any issues with the ship we run. + +The Mod who attended did say that they wanted this to be the most respectable, least dodgy part of the ASX social media...Cuckold references, Body fluid consumption and general idiocy aside, I think we've done that. We also do Koala and charity stuff. + +So if you're just a plain old legit, real fucking idiot that belongs here, good work. If you're some asshole who wants to use this sub as victims of your scams, will you please fuck right off.... + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR:** Μας αρέσει το αστείο +In light of articles saying they had an '*eye on social media*', we made a pro-active step and contacted the **ASIC** in September 2020. No response was received other than a receipt of message, so we simply continued along our merry way. + +When we followed up a few months later, we were informed our offer of communication (including a Mods personal email and phone number) had been 'non actioned' and subsequently closed. + +Advice from the **ASIC** on the second call was that we should contact them again if we really needed to (including providing a specific group to call). Again, no news is good news. + +&#x200B; + +A little over a week ago, we were contacted by a person claiming to be representing **ASIC**. We have a verification process for whenever someone contacts the Mods claiming to be somebody. After their identity was confirmed, we were advised the purpose of the contact was a non specific meeting to see the lay of the land. + +The Mods conferred, it was decided that one Mod would happily attend via phone. Apparently no investigation is happening, this was a friendly chat and it was not recorded by **ASIC**. + +&#x200B; + +A few questions were asked, but just to clarify and maintain our transparency, we thought we'd answer them here too. + +The actual meet up was over the phone, only one mod was present. + +The questions below are listed from memory and subsequent Mod dialogue. + +&#x200B; + +**What do you get paid?** + +Nothing. + +Sweet fuck all to be precise, just doing it for the love and tears of spammers. A Quality shit-post now and then also does wonders for morale. + +Initially, One of the Mods did pay for a few things out of their own pocket (*The Koala and Banner, designers and base art aren't free, even if they got it for mates rates*). + +In lieu of this and to put out some funnies for the Autistic crowd to call their own, a shitty merch store was set up via RedBubble. Once that debt is paid, they are considering to shut the shop, unless another person starts trying to skim money by stealing the Koala. + +Mods have a rule you may or may not be aware of. We do not accept gifts, donations, payments, and any associated funny business. Sexual favours will not get you special treatment, just deep disappointment. Any time we are offered something, we suggest the user spend that money on a donation to charity instead. Someone shilling generally and offering Discounts and offers of 200 free accounts to **the entire sub** are fine, but mod only stuff is a no no. Though beers have been bought for mods (and others) at meetups and someone probably got a pizza once. + +We do not enter the competitions we allow to be run on the Sub. + +As a general guide, we avoid shilling our own stonks, in actual fact when a post pops up concerning a ticker a Mod is invested in, we often try to flag it in our mod chat and one of the other Mods makes the call on it. (keep/delete/re-flair etc...). Mods can still delete each others posts. + +Even if we dont mention a stonk to each other, there are still multiple mods. Trash and pump is still trash and pump. It will get deleted. If trash is being approved, questions will be asked by other mods. + +We occasionally gamble on shitty stocks we see shilled here, generally only to skulk away and lament our own foolishness. + +&#x200B; + +**How much time do you spend doing this?** + +&#x200B; + +Mods might spend anywhere between 3-12 hours a week moderating the sub. Cut up into 5-10 minute blocks. Yes people, you got your no effort post deleted while the mod was sitting down on the toilet. + +When there is a major problem or huge spikes in interest (BRNageddon/GME/Any fucking time Z1P goes up etc...) Mod's can spend up to double this amount sorting it out. + +This isn't always fun and can be pretty demanding, but its a reality of the role. Remember, there is a large volume you don't see via mod mail and other requests that come in. + +&#x200B; + +**Does every post get Pre-approved by a mod?** + +&#x200B; + +No way. This isn't our job. That's not how the internet works. + +We just don't have time to approve everything that people say, plus we don't want too. The sub would become an extension filter of the stuff Mod's wanted to see only. Think of all the shit you would not have been subjected to if this was the case, can you imagine a world where we deprived you of logging on to see what people were buying and ended up watching some dude drink his own jizz? Nah, that job goes to the mod who drew the short straw. Other mods still haven't seen that video. + +Also, that would mean we have to review everything immediately. News of something Mooning or crashing would be delayed spreading and no one could act while the approver had a look and furrowed their brow while pondering whether to say yes. What do we look like? A Commsec Options account? + +Plus, the reddit downvote function provides a small assistance to us. If someone is just pumping or spamming, the downvoters will prevent that clogging up everyone's feeds anyway until we get to it. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**How fast can you respond to a post?** + +&#x200B; + +Often within 1-2 hours, a mod has looked over things. Often it's much faster. We largely use Sort by New. Reddit does do strange stuff with sorting, but this usually means things get caught. + +We also have mod-mail, which provides alerts to Mods who have it set up right. Certain apps don't actually do this correctly, so it's not a surefire way to get an immediate alert to a mod, but it will get looked at. We also get reports, which are flagged to us when we look at the sub. + +The best and fastest way to contact a mod has and will always be tagging them on the post by their username. + +&#x200B; + +**How can you respond to people doing dodgy stuff?** + +&#x200B; + +As swiftly as possible. People just doing low quality memes and being a bit too enthusiastic so as to make us slightly suspicious simply get deleted. But if there appears to be any coordinated posts etc, we will often get modmails, chats or people @ us. If multiple posts with the same text appear, that is a dead giveaway. For bad behaviour, we might give people a warning flair, while banning the alts. If they misbehave again, they will go for a temporary or permanent ban. + +&#x200B; + +The more co-ordinated the event, the more aggressive we are. It's hard to prove pumping or co-ordination, so we tend to be careful about flat out banning. + +&#x200B; + +We have had an attempted pump when a discussion group off the subreddit went from hysterical enthusiasm for a stock (which is fine) to planning a pump. We stopped it before the pump was supposed to happen, partially to ensure no actual laws were broken, (i.e no market manipulation **ASIC**). + +The ringleader was banned, plus the people involved were, ranging from short bans for fellow travellers to longer ones for people who clearly knew what they were a part of when it went to the dark side. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you choose mods?** + +&#x200B; + +Basically through a process of being aware that we need a new mod because the load is too high and we start reviewing who appears to be acting in an adult way, or at least a childish way but appears to actually be an Adult inside. While we are welcoming to all, including morons, we don't want them to be mods. + +Every mod was looked over carefully before being offered the spot. Only one mod had offered their services before being chosen, but they were already on view as a possible. People who look like they might abuse the position are not chosen. + +Everyone, do not ask us to become a mod. Don't call us, we'll call you. + +&#x200B; + +**Does the Mod team agree on everything? Is** /u/The_lordofruin **the boss?** + +&#x200B; + +No and no. + +While a mod is very new, their access is not fully active. But as long as they don't misbehave, they have the same access as the others mods within a few weeks. Think of it like a probationary period. + +There is a single common chat channel that the mods use for 99% of their communication, though 1 on 1 does happen. Previously, there were other channels when there were far fewer mods. But these channels are rarely used now except for sending files and information back and forth that reddit doesn't handle well. + +We have a group email account separate to the sub, also shared spreadsheets and other bits and pieces to assist us with all thing modding. + +95% of descisions made by mods are unilateral. + +They see shit and they delete shit. If something looks like it needs an alert to everyone (like co-ordinated pumpers or a user not quite crossing the line, but still being a dick and likely a future problem), then the other mods are alerted. + +Over time, Different mods have fallen into different roles. One mod does a lot of ban post co-ordination, another does automod, another tends to do Commenting, Another does most of the flairs and another likes killing bots and sock puppets. + +Mixed in with this is their general activities, you would expect a group over time to evolve into these types of roles. + +&#x200B; + +Unlike how certain larger subreddits operate, we do not have an inner party and an outer party of mods. + +/u/The_lordofruin is a major poster and is sometimes requested as a particular "oh no...Mum/Dad is here." scary alert Mod. But that's largely a matter of history and that certain other mods do not like too much attention. As you would expect, the mods who have been around longer are afforded a level of respect both within the sub and the Mod circle. They have probably seen it before, they have had more time programming auto-mod, are more familiar with the sub etc etc... + +But the Elder Mods are not the bosses, the mods work together but aren't a monolithic unit and when we disagree on a certain course of action or direction, group consensus prevails. + +&#x200B; + +People who do not mod are likely not aware of it, but if you are a mod, Reddit allows scheduled posts. One mod can draft something, schedule the post to be released the next day. Another mod can then go in, edit and expand that post before it goes live. This means multiple mods are actually the Author, but it only goes under one user. + +Case in point, multiple Mods have read this post and either edited or approved it prior to it going live. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you keep the mods from misusing their power?** + +&#x200B; + +There is a mod log thats kept up, tracking all things done by the mods. + +In theory, a mod could misuse it, but if something is deleted then a user can use mod-mail or message another mod. The other mods would get an alert, then review the post in question. Eventually questions would get asked. Mods sometimes will say "I'm in XYZ, I'm too close. You guys decide if this is a reasonable post or if I'm too close and this is actually shit." + +&#x200B; + +As with any group, trust plays a role. The more time the current mod group spends refining their craft, the better we are at maintaining the culture here at r/ASX_Bets. + +&#x200B; + +In theory, certain mods can close the entire sub and say Fuck you all. However, they have their episode of '*going mad with power*' scheduled for next Full moon, not today. Right after they finished crying that their biggest holdings have not mooned despite 3 years being balls deep. \[That hurts you bastard- other mod editing this\] + +&#x200B; + +**Why is there lots of text in Greek? Is it some trick being used to hide messages and bypass the Automod?** + +&#x200B; + +**hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!** + +&#x200B; + +It's a long long story that actually needed explaining to **ASIC**. Yes, they really did ask this seriously. + +It's actually an '*in*' joke because some idiot took a random Greek article as evidence **BRN** was going to moon. This article was just a random article, but the joke developed that people will believe anything they read in Greek. + +It's still going on 6 months later, not the mooning, the Greek joke. If you have been here longer than 5 minutes, you will know we have other jokes too. You know, cause jokes are funny and shit, not fucking advice to be taken literally.... + +&#x200B; + +**Any questions for ASIC?** + +&#x200B; + +*Why are options on the ASX not quoted by market makers*? + +\- Since you can do this with professional trading systems and services easily, it looks like it creates a misbalance in the market between retail and institutions. This was actually requested by multiple mods. Apparently this question was not immediately answerable, but they have noted it. + +&#x200B; + +From here on, if you see an account claiming to be **ASIC** and they have the Flair "Official ASIC Account. For Real. Seriously." then that is them. + +&#x200B; + +**Summary:** + +At this point, we don't really have that much to tell anyone. + +We had left a joke in the FAQ and forgotten about it which mentioned Rockets equaling winning, which has been deleted upon request. Otherwise, they don't seem to have any issues with the ship we run. + +The Mod who attended did say that they wanted this to be the most respectable, least dodgy part of the ASX social media...Cuckold references, Body fluid consumption and general idiocy aside, I think we've done that. We also do Koala and charity stuff. + +So if you're just a plain old legit, real fucking idiot that belongs here, good work. If you're some asshole who wants to use this sub as victims of your scams, will you please fuck right off.... + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR:** Μας αρέσει το αστείο +I've been a member of this subreddit for quite a while now. I think the member count was still 25-30k or something. In that time, I've noticed some changes in the post quality. + +Observation #1 + +Earlier, any personal related query used to be strictly confined to the pinned thread in the subreddit that gets updated every few days. Earlier, some of my personal posts were actually not published because a sentence in the post made it a personal query. But now, I see personal, very individual queries as standalone posts. The very same post is posted in thread as well, which feels like spray-and-pray kind of an approach. + +Due to so many individual advice posts, more general queries are getting lost in the crowd. + +&#x200B; + +Observation #2 + +The quality of questions - + +1. Some of the questions that are being asked here have such a factual singular answer, that it could be easily answered through quick internet search +2. Some questions can so mainstream beginner level that it can be answered through reading wiki (this is a grey area though... sometimes, these beginner level questions have certain nuance, but I'm referring run-of the-mill 'I'm X years old and an investment noob. How do I get started?') +3. Other questions are so close in context to already active questions, that they could have been avoided (and just added to available threads or comments) + +These recent evolution have, at least for me, resulted in me spending more time separating wheat from chaff. I just wanted to open a discussion to see if we can figure out a way to streamline and consolidate. + +I was an early adopter of Quora as well. The quality of material there was AMAZING back then and I contributed a lot. But, as the adoption grew, the quality of question degraded drastically and I left the platform. I suppose the S-curve of adoption and quality is true after all. + +I want to see this community grow, but it is difficult to engage when I'm spending too much time to search for meaningful, non-redundant conversations. + +If I'm the only one who thinks this way, please downvote and ignore. Otherwise, let's see if we find some ways to further streamline the subreddit! + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Based on some comments, it seems the interpretation is that I'm being critical of beginners' posts. That is not the case. + +Let me lay bare my thinking process. I'll have to introduce few concepts: power law, collision theory, and spillover effect + +&#x200B; + +* **Power law** is apparent everywhere when it comes to forums. Where people think the distribution is normal, it is actually exponential - + * How many 'experts' do you think we have in the subreddit? Just survey the frequent commenters and you'll get a picture. In this 101k member list, I would estimate it to be 50-100, and that might very well be higher + * The growth of this subreddit has been exponential recently. I'll assume the #expert joining among them would be very small + * Compare that with the number of beginners (and, hence, the number of posts) we will have on the subreddit + * You are already seeing the effect. Number of comments in the available threads are increasing. Many of them are same questions in different dressing. The 'expert' cannot answer the same question every time. So, there has to be a solution to that + * Add to this some low-effort and lazy questions. Adding noise to the overall thread + * With so many queries and so few of those who answers, you WILL see lower rate of replies +* I'm using **Collision Theory** in a loose sense + * Frankly, not all 'experts' are coming here with a single mind focus to help people out. They are also coming to learn more + * Now, if they have a time budget for both (learn and help), they WILL adhere to it, irrespective of amount of material on subreddit + * Now, they will engage in X capacity, whether there's 2X need or 100X need. Only few will be lucky + +But, if they have to work hard to search for 'learn' component from all the posts, they will no longer think it is worth the effort. This is a delayed and second order effect of increased number of posts. + +* **Spillover effect** of perception says that if signal/noise is decreasing and learning opportunities are going down for them, maybe they will look for greener pastures + +Everybody loses in long term due to all the noise and repetitions. + +Beginners will have to help 'experts' so that they can do the same. + +\*'expert' is in quotes because I'm using it in loose sense - Someone who has been on this subreddit for a while and learned through osmosis here and through her/his own research +I’ve lost $35K since November and am down like $25K lifetime due to dumping a lot into stocks after I got bonuses in December. I just find it depressing that I could have never saved/invested and instead burned $35K on living a luxurious life for many months, and I’d be in the same financial position I am in today. + +I know things should bounce back eventually, but I’ve now lost as much money as I’ve made in some years (a long time ago). Just makes me sad; I feel like I’ve sacrificed a lot to earn and save what I have, and it feels worthless right now (because I’m literally worse off than my friends who just spent their money on luxuries and/or haven’t bothered to invest). +I'm 19 and because of coronavirus my life has been on hold since 2020. My dad was laid off his job because of corona. His age (64), limited skill set (he was like a hotel delivery boy), and limited English (his primarily language is Vietnamese) means he hasn’t been able to find a new job. He’s been telling me for a while now we were going to lose our home and today he said it was going to happen for sure. I’m his only daughter so it’s just me and him for our family. My dad really doesn’t like talking with me about financial things (he is old fashioned) and because of the language barrier sometimes it’s hard to talk to him in general. + +There are some things I’m trying to figure out on my own since I don’t think I’ll get much answers from him. + +Is there a way for me to understand our financial situation, the reason we’re losing our home? I thought we owned our home so how do we owe money to someone and is there a way for me to find this out on my own? I was told there was a hold on evictions because of corona, did that run out or is there a chance my dad isn’t being completely truthful about the house situation with me? Is there anything we could look into try and help us stay in our home longer? + +My friend suggested local community groups and a social worker but so far the first hasn’t helped much and I don’t know how to do the second one. + +Any help or advice or information would be appreciated. Thank you. + +Edit: We are in the USA in Virginia +Edit 2: [Follow up 1!](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/n2zplt/19_struggling_to_understand_why_my_dad_is_losing/gwq1ai6/) +Edit 3: [Follow up 2!](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/n2zplt/19_struggling_to_understand_why_my_dad_is_losing/gwtpgl6/) +Would landlords sell their vacant properties rather than pay the mortgage and upkeep and flood the market with homes for sale? Or could there be a wave of defaults on investment properties? It seems like another housing crisis just waiting to unfold. + +For context: I am a homeowner. I do not own any rental property. There is an obvious human toll that would be paid by mass homelessness. I'm just a survivor of the 2008 housing crisis and wondering if there are any similarities between 2008 and now in the housing market. +What are your feelings on giving your kids some of your $$ early on when they are in their prime and can really benefit from doing some extraordinary things? I don't think it's really that bad sharing some of what I have accumulated with them now, but I know some are so totally against touching their life savings because they worked so hard to get there and might need it in their older ages. I'm 58 and just think helping out the kids with some extras that will enhance their lives while they are young is not a really bad idea. (I am totally aware this is dependent on where I am on the "FIRE" chart, I get this.....I am such a simple minimalist and just want my kids to enjoy extras like a nice vacation or an opportunity to live in a really chill vibing place for my youngest, and I feel I have plenty, and it really brings me joy, to see my kids thriving and enjoying life. They are all great adult kids, work and take care of their families and sometimes that little boost for a fun extra is just my idea of sharing.) +Hey man I seen you in here celebrating that you had been saving for a long time, driving a 99’ Camry or something. + +You had finally saved enough to buy your first whole coin. Then some guys in the thread were like “pretty dumb to buy at near ATH” (was like 19k at the time), “your not a smart puppy”. Well this post is just for you. Take a victory lap bro, you earned it! + **SINCE THIS POST 3 DAYS AGO APPLE HAS FALLEN A 11,46%** + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/urv8ut/big\_short\_investor\_michael\_burry\_reveals\_bet/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/urv8ut/big_short_investor_michael_burry_reveals_bet/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) +Our homeowner's insurance in San Diego is being "not-renewed" due to fires. But isn't it more rational to raise rates? I understand what's called "material change in risk," such as renovations. But, to effectively cancel a large portion of your region's customers' policies seems like found money. What am I missing? +While we get amused by Rahul Dravid getting mad at Bangalore's traffic and Cred being the most efficient startup at burning money in India, I think there's a bull case here to vindicate the VCs who threw their LP dollars after a company which made 52L in revenue last year. + +&#x200B; + +Kunal Shah keeps talking about India being a "trust deficit" society and removing trust deficit can generate positive externalities from improving transaction efficiency to happiness and perhaps reduce the daily anxiety when dealing with fellow Indians. Now beyond that abstract nonsense, we can pry out a general overarching goal: trustworthy people should be able to access credit in everyday transactions. + +Credit cards solve this problem somewhat - they give a zero interest 30 day credit to consumers while charging a merchant discount rate (MDR) to merchants. Additionally, they make interest money off of consumers who carry forward their monthly balances. + +Why do merchants agree to pay this MDR? Well it comes down to trust and supply and demand - consumers spend more if they have credit and merchants are better off using an intermediary to evaluate if a consumer is trustworthy and deserves that credit. + +That's where Cred comes in - I believe in the long run Cred can replace credit cards with a stronger credit underwriting platform and perhaps a cheaper MDR to merchants who accept "Cred Credit" (you're welcome, Kunal). + +But what's wrong with credit cards you say? What problem is Cred solving exactly for consumers? Well, credit cards suck. No really, they suck - competition in credit cards actually creates perverse incentives because card issuers go out of the way to offer rewards on cards and pay for them using higher MDRs. Overall, the cost to society increases. + +Secondly, credit cards have very low penetration in India due to the behemoth that is UPI. Who wants a cheap piece of plastic when they can pay using their phone in a secure fashion? The only problem with UPI is that merchants can't offer credit directly. Cred is well posed to become the intermediary between merchants and consumers who like to use UPI and offer a credit marketplace to solve this problem. + +Imagine your landlord being able to offer lower deposit rates because you're a Cred member. Or your local grocer offering you a 30 day credit without having to deal with the headache of reminding you to make payments. + +Execution will be key of course, but I think Kunal is in this for the long run and the flashy ads are building a huge customer base which Cred will be able to eventually monetize with the right credit offerings. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: This elicited a healthy dose of emotion, cynicism and mockery. + +To address a few frequently mentioned comments: + +1. Cred cannot become CIBIL or Experian or a credit rating agency without the government's blessing. + +Agreed. I don't think they will become a credit rating agency directly. They will probably use existing credit rating + their own underwriting model using the data they collect to better control credit underwriting risk, and offer cheaper credit compared to traditional lenders. + +2. Cred is a scam/fad/VCs are stupid/VCs will file police complaint etc. + +Maybe. But the implicit premise of a bull thesis is that the founder, company and VCs are bonafide and not out there to scam each other or the customers due to reputational risk. It would also be ironic for a person who keeps talking about trust to actually be a scammer himself. + +3. Cred will sell your data + +Yes this is a possibility. But building a business model around the data (credit history) is likely more profitable than selling the data itself. The idea of this post is to explore a different business model with some creative conjectures. + +&#x200B; + +Edit 2: I exaggerated the "credit cards suck" part a little bit. But to explain how credit card reward programs lead to price increases, have a look at this article: [https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/are-other-peoples-credit-card-rewards-costing-you-money.html](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/are-other-peoples-credit-card-rewards-costing-you-money.html) + +Basically, credit card companies charge merchants a higher MDR for the privilege of accepting a premium VISA/MC credit card which offers better rewards to consumers over a standard no-rewards card. Merchants who want to accept Visa have do not have an option to decline these higher MDR cards. Of course, merchants have no option but to increase their prices for everyone to compensate for the higher transaction costs of a small percentage of premium card swipes. +They'll come on here, talk about some dividend stocks, and then say "but I can get better total return with X stock" + +(X stock pays almost no dividend, or doesn't pay at all. It's a growth stock.) + +Dividend investing is a DEFENSIVE strategy. If you think the current bull market is going to last forever. If you foresee uninterrupted growth into the infinite future, there is absolutely zero reason to focus on dividend investing. You'll get better returns just buying high multiple growth stocks. They will completely own the dividend payers. + +Dividend investing is for people looking at the market with a skeptical eye, as well as for those closer to retirement, who aren't willing to bet all their money on a stock that might tank and stay down for years or decades. Dividend investing is for people who see a bear or flat market ahead after a historic bull run. + +If you're in your 20s or early 30s with decades of investing ahead of you. You really ought not to worry about dividends. Just go 100% growth equities and DCA for the next 20 years. You'll do great. Just don't buy crypto, unless you're into momentum trading and are good at it. LOL + +Maybe next time I'll talk about the shortsightedness of "Dividend Growth" investing versus just buying stocks that pay solid and safe yields. +Date: 6/22/2022 + +Time: 12 pm to 1:30 pm Eastern, and then the next 10-15 years if there are more questions or anything requires clarification. + +\[EDIT: need to run now (1:30) but feel free to add more questions, will return around 4:30 pm\] + +\[EDIT #2: let's try some more at 8 pm\] + +&#x200B; + +I'm Jason Abaluck, a professor of economics at Yale University at the School of Management. [Proof](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1539375742282260483). + +Most of [my work](https://faculty.som.yale.edu/jasonabaluck/) is in health economics, especially trying to fix the problem that people can't tell which doctors, hospitals and insurers will (inexpensively) make them healthy. + +A related research agenda seeks to relax the assumption that choices are well-informed and infer from choice data whether [information](https://spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com/faculty/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2022/03/A_Method_to_Estimate_Discrete_Choice_Models_that_is_Robust_to_Consumer_Search-1.pdf), [defaults](https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/136/3/1611/6169736?login=true), or other forms of "choice architecture" would lead to better choices. + +I was an [early advocate](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1243675540353101824) for masking and co-authored [the only randomized trial](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9069) evaluating the community-level impact of masking on Covid (of course, the benefits of masks fall as the Covid death rate falls due to vaccines, natural immunity, better treatment, and less deadly variants). + +Other potentially relevant items: + +* I just published an op-ed in the Washington Post calling for [mandatory gun liability insurance](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/17/gun-insurance-reform-uvalde-liability/). The economic rationale is that premiums would act like an individual-specific tax on gun ownership which is (roughly) proportional to the size of the externality generated. I did not invent this idea, but I think it is underappreciated. +* I think there is a missing field in philosophy/economics -- ["econometric epistemology"](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1330656185859584003) \-- which tries to figure out what is true by estimating the causal effect of knowledge on beliefs. Thinking about starting it with a large-scale panel survey. +* I several years arguing with [a belligerent 86 year-old man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judea_Pearl) and his students about causal identification (a somewhat ironic result of my view that his work was underappreciated by economists). As a result, I believe I have the most highly-cited Twitter account in the [Journal of Economic Literature](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20191597) ([non-paywall link](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07271.pdf)). +* I am not really the author of any books but 20 years ago I wrote a bunch of puns for [the most prurient SAT study guide](https://books.google.com/books/about/Up_Your_Score.html?id=pnW3d8NItk0C). + +\[EDIT: need to run now (1:30) but feel free to add more questions, will return around 4:30 pm\] + +\[EDIT #2: let's try some more at 8 pm\] + +**Edit**: Thanks for the questions. I'll try to check back again tomorrow to see if I've missed anything. You can follow [me](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck) on Twitter for more. +IK countries debt is more complicated than personal debt and we don’t ever have to pay it off but AFAIK the government has continuously had a spend larger chunks of the budget on the interest. + +Long term thinking isn’t the governments strong suit but for this to be sustainable are we somewhat planning on eventually having someone bear the consequences of this debt in the form of high taxes and slashing the budget (which hurts the economy so it might not even help?) or is there some reasonable belief that this can be done forever? +http://www.forbes.com/sites/cameronkeng/2014/06/22/employees-that-stay-in-companies-longer-than-2-years-get-paid-50-less/#454e629ee07f + +Companies need to get back to rewarding employees for their tenure. Until they do, don't reward companies with your loyalty. When you're worth more on the open market than your company will give you, they are doing you a disservice and you should make the best decision for your own future and go make what you're worth. The more people who do this, the more likely companies will be to change and allow us to stick around and be compensated for it. + +Millenials often started their careers in the recession, and have an inset fear of the job market because of it. They often walk around moping as if the economy is stuck in 2009, and it's not. The market is good right now, go test it. +I was discussing a pay rise with my manager today (who is great and always looks out for my interests) and we were talking about a $10k pay rise and he asked if it was really the best idea as I would go up a bracket and get taxed more… + +What are some face palm moments you guys have had +So, I'm thinking about graphs like [this](https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F7da2f0f8-c89e-11e7-ab18-7a9fb7d6163e?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700). The implication of this claim would be some form of neo-colonialism where the developed world screws over poorer countries by maintaining their lifestyle while moving all the bad side-effects to the third world. Does this claim hold any truth? +Look, I signed the contract at the end of the day… but finding out a unit in my building sold for $200k more than mine only weeks later stings. And I haven’t even moved out of the building yet. There are only 4 units in my building of this layout, both mine and the other are fully renovated, the only difference being mine faces the street, the other does not. Surely not worth $200k more though? +I paid my agent for his advice, he was pushy and recommended I sell off-market (even calling/texting on a Saturday night to see if I’d signed yet, despite me saying I’d think about it over the weekend). I didn’t need to sell this unit to buy my next place, I could have held off until I found my next place (and saved a load of stress whilst trying to secure the next place)… then to find out the agent knew the buyer of my unit well….. ahhh it stinks. +Anything I can do about it besides live and learn, and push it out of my mind?? + +EDIT: I’ve gone through our correspondence and there is a message from him asking “have you signed yet as I’ve already told the seller you accepted”… My reply was “I feel pressure”…. 😣 + +Also - I know I’m an idiot. + +UPDATE: Spoke to a solicitor. He thinks I have a case as the agent didn’t act in my best interests. There is a lot of evidence to suggest he was being pushy and pressuring me to sign. He has suggested I present the case to a Barrister to get their view on whether or not it’s worth going through litigation. If so, present a letter to the agent/agent’s insurer with this information along with valuations. Then most likely to go to mediation. Getting to that point could take several months and cost $50k. If unsuccessful go to court and that could take 12 months and more $$. The solicitor has said I cannot back out of the sale and to proceed with settlement, as there is no evidence of collusion between the agent and buyer. +I have some thinking to do… +source: [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sec-lawsuit-nyse-nasdaq-idUSKBN2AA09P](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sec-lawsuit-nyse-nasdaq-idUSKBN2AA09P) + +This article is short and doesn't elaborate much on what the effects of giving public access to supply and demand data are. Sueing the SEC seems like another way to stifle access to information for retail investors disguised as a means to protect them. + +I have a lot of bias right now against institutional entities and I'm interested in what people have to say about this and whether or not this is more sensational news for clicks. I couldn't find a source with specifics about what the SECs overhaul would look like so I'm torn on how I feel about this. + +Edit: For those seeking further context, look through some of the great discussions in the comments! +Any time you look up a list of great investors they're fund managers investing other people's money (great for those people!) My question is: Who is the greatest person to invest that used their own money to have a rags-to-riches story? I'm sure we'll hear about self-made millionaires from this generation that used discount brokers, Reddit, and analysis purely from the internet to amass wealth, in due time. +Be sure to read this, you will be HAPPY you did - VeChain + +Guys, +First let me say that I own VeChain, but this post is way beyond my personal investment but instead I’d like to provide a fresh look into why VeChain as we the best investments in Blockchain technology for years to come. +The market today is all about FOMO and hype, and that’s absolutely fine, the market can continue and increase in total Cap for years to come, but eventually the blockchain and its related tokens will need serious adoption to utilize and incentivise each project. +Many of the amazing projects with super high valuation (i.e.: IOTA, EOS…) are just speculation and it may be that they can deliver and all will be well. + + +However, VeChain is VERY different, as explained by Sunny Lu, the CEO of VeChain. + +VeChain is building business relations FIRST and letting its customers dictate the path forward. +With already agreements in place with the Chinese national Govt as well as many other multi billion dollar companies: + +=============================== + +Hubei Sanxin Cultural Media Ltd. + +BitOcean + +Healthcare Co. Ltd + +Xiamen Innov Information Technology Co Ltd + +A Global Convenience Store Franchise + +Looking Into Who Is Jiangsu Printed Electronics + +VeChain teams up with Madeforgoods | CN press release + +VeChain affirms partnership with China Unicom + +Global strategic cooperation with DNV GL + +Groupe Renault teams with Microsoft and... + +World’s Largest Freight Company to Use Blockchain Tech for Asset Management + +PwC CN: VeChain S.E.A. becomes a portfolio company of PwC’s incubation... + +Babyghost and VeChain: Fashion on the Blockchain - Nasdaq.com + +China’s Largest Wine Importer Wants to Place Wine on a Private Blockchain + +Bright Fishery (officially announced in weekly report vol.6) + +And many more with signed NDAs (BMW rumered and more…) + +VeChain is positioning itself to be in high demand and usage for years to come. + +VeChain is re-banding itself as VET VeChain/Thor (instead of just VEN) and will deliver a revolutionary new Blockchain-X in Q2 of 2018. With +the rebranding they announced a passive income system through proof of stake which is bound to create generous returns for anyone holding 10K of VET or more. + + +=============================== + +What I think many people are missing is the fact that even if the entire Crypto market crashed (which I don’t see happening at 700B which is still low), the VeChain/Thor will thrive due to the need for its technology and business partners which will adopt the technology in 2018. +So when you are investing in VeChain, you are getting a double reward. If the Crypto market doubles in total Cap, you VET will be worth substentilaly more, but even the market has peaked, the fact that the VeChain ECO system will thrive (and it is a fact IMHO due to the many business relationships) your VET will create a very high ROI. VeChain is exceeding all expectations when it comes to its enterprise market penetration and we are all in January (testnet will be released Q2 of 2018). + +=============================== + + +The investment world is taking notice as Breyercapital and other investment firms are adding VeChain to its very limited blockchain profolio. +So I know what you must be thinking, well it all sounds nice and well, so why did VeChain only go up 10x in past month and not 100x. +Well the answer is simply (and I got proof). Whales (many of them Chinese) are well aware that VeChain will be a top player in the crypto work and are trying to gain as many VET as they can before the tokens gets up really high in value. And so market manipulation is happening in unprecedented fashion (never seen anything like it in any other coin) and high sell walls and +continues re-buys to force the price to remain low so they can accumulate. +Here is a proof: https://www.dropbox.com/s/8k6w5cen3ryu2yt/Chart.png?dl=0 +Whales are trying to get enough VET so they own a Mjolnir master node which can pay close to 1,000,000.00 a year if and when the price of VET gets to $25.00 +See here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bfgixylquemgtby/VET.jpg?dl=0 + +=============================== + +I honestly believe the price will climb well above $100 USD before Q2 2018 as VeChain is a game changing blockchain company in its approach to business relations first and adoption second. +This is giving everyone an opportunity to get in now before the Whales stop price manipulation (eventually they will stop since they have accumulated enough and wish to the price climb themselves). I honestly believe this is a once in a lifetime opportunity and this is the reason for my first real post in Reddit Blockchain (all my other posts are on programming Google Angular :) +Now let me prove to you that the writing is on the wall. + + + +This morning the market crashed +20% and yet you can see that ONLY VeChain is maintaining it’s price, that is because the Whales auto orders are buying everything they can below and above a certain price. As you can see from my snapshot from 8AM this morning: +https://www.dropbox.com/s/2aeki6xbwdwjt75/Market.JPG?dl=0 +I know many of you think that if you buy into VeChain now you are getting it at its all time high, but in a year you will look back at its current market Cap of 1.5B and you will be amazed at how undervalue it has been (this is my personal opinion and not financial advice). +Now don’t take my word for it, always do your own research. +I do highly recommend you watch the very popular Boxmining video on VeChain: +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH2G_44x4vw&t=767s +as well as: +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42_YmVGs5MA&t=300s + + +=============================== + +and most importantly the VeChain THOR Power Forged AMA: +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWoEsBQFozM +The opportunity here is mind boggling and while it goes without saying that I have a VET and would like to see it rise in price, I am sure this single post is not going to make even a small dent in its high volume trading and so I am not posting this for my own benefit but instead to open everyone’s eyes to this amazing opportunity. I am an Angular developer and I spend hundreds of hours developing open source code which is posted on GitHub for the benefit of the Angular community and so I am used to giving back (you can see my Reddit ratings and post history of years). It’s just the first time I am doing the same for the Crypto community, + +=============================== + +Happy new year and good luck, + + +Sean. + +"I'd expect to see your real name and a record to prove it. Buffett-like investing as defined by people like you has been reduced to a set model by people such as yourself. To me, a lot of the thought and intelligence has been taken out of it.  + +I wrote about this on my web site under "Buffett Revisited." To me, his spirit of investing with intelligence has been lost in a sea of those simply trying to be pure imitators.  + +When he bought GEICO, AMEX, the Buffalo News, any number of his investments he was being as much contrarian as anything. He saw value in a a market dominance or a brand that others didn't. And the 10-year record of high ROE with earnings not skipping a beat wasn't necessarily there to prove it when he bought. But there was nonetheless a margin of safety. + +IMO, the biggest impediment to investing in the spirit of Buffett is the idea that somehow we can be a 100% imitator of him and see the same success. That anyone could be a perfect imitator of his approach strikes me as ridiculous. Try compounding the 10% difference between even your best imitator and Buffett over 30 years.  + +I don't have it down yet. But in terms of investing in the spirit of Buffett (rather than in his mirror image), neither does anyone else here that I can see. I'm young. I'm reading a lot and continuously reviewing and updating my approach as new revelations occur. Remember I said "Buffett-like stock for me," not you. If it was that easy for you to see, I'd be disappointed. I'm certainly glad I can't find anyone to agree with me on this. If anything, it indicates I'm headed in the right direction." +Hi I recently lost my job and in the process of losing my apartment but I still want to get my daughter a costume I found one she’s love on target for 25 $ a unicorn costume . I don’t have anyone I could borrow money from . Looking for some good ideas or tips to making some cash in the next few days if possible ? She’s only five and doesn’t know I lost my job yet everyday when I bring her to school I feel awful when she wishes me a good day at work . I’ve been looking for a job everywhere in the next 15miles radius from me and still nothing . I’ve been to over 20 interviews and nothing . I’ve had a rough few months and starting to lose hope . I just want her to be happy, I think she’d be so disappointed if I didn’t find a way to get her something +Hello fatFIRE, + +I am in my 30s and in the lucky position to have founded a unicorn tech startup ($1b+ valuation). + +My personal equity ownership in it brings me to a high net worth. Googling my unique surname would allow anybody that knows my name to connect the dots based on industry articles. + +As I live in the western world in a mostly safe city, I'm not concerned about this at home, but I am becoming more concerned about traveling. In the past, I would have just grabbed my backpack and travelled through South America or Asia by myself. But over the years read enough about stuff like bad actors getting name lists of flights or hotels to then find valuable targets to kidnap/blackmail/... to be worried. + +How do other fatFIREs handle personal safety, especially when traveling? Is this a concern? Am I just too worried? Better not travel to such places? Take a bodyguard (weird feeling)? + +Thanks. +I know you guys in Europe heavily invest in ETFs through DEGIRO especially in their free ETFS. The company has updated the list. You can find there for example the favourite VWCE VANGUARD FTSE ALL-WORLD (Acc). +Link: https://www.degiro.ie/data/pdf/ie/commission-free-etfs-list.pdf +I'm a pom originally. If I had remained in the UK then I would probably never have had a go at share investing or trading. In the UK (with the exception of a few spreadbetting types) it's really seen as something only for the posh old money rich or those whose parents are bankers or stockbrokers. It used to be the case that there were the "barrow boy" bankers from poor parts of London who could get on but that died in the early 90s. If my elderly working class British dad had known I was putting money in the stock market and trading myself then he'd probably think I was being stupid and above my station and give me a slap! + +If you want to consider getting into share investment in the UK - + +1) Are mumsy or daddy of the "right" class? +2) Are you going to the "right" mega-prestuge university to learn maths, finance or even just the classics (i.e. Oxford, Cambridge, the London School of Economics)? +3) Can you get on one of those Barclays Capital or Goldman Sachs grad schemes that posh students think it's their divine right to get onto? + +No? Then the FTSE isn't for you. Give your money to some posh Square Mile investment company to do it for you, shut up and go back to your place.... + +This is explains why there are so few Mum and Dad investors in the UK. + +Australia and to an extent this reddit sub are just great because here loads of retail investors have a go at share trading without hangups about whether they are the "right" sort or have some deep financial expertise that only your private school chums or Oxbridge or the LSE can provide. This may be down to the greater gambling culture or spirit of egalitarianism in finance. Tell people you trade or invest in stocks here and nobody gives a shit or tells you not to. You have a bad day and talk about it on this forum and you may get laughed at a bit for being an "autist" but it's par for the course and nobody gives a shit. + +Here anyone from any walk of life is free to have a punt and nobody will tell you otherwise. Wonderful... +Does Amazon’s value increase when it’s split over antitrust concerns? + +This is not especially reassuring on the antitrust front: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-demands-one-more-thing-from-some-vendors-a-piece-of-their-company-11624968099?st=9ahm8i8sksp6kg8&reflink=article_copyURL_share +I am a technical equities trader and market analyst. + +I still see tons of people on the sidelines calling for a housing market crash. + +Just wanted to give everyone a friendly reminder that when the average person is trying to time the market crash either in Stocks or housing chances are it won't happen. + +From my experience whenever people start to scream that the markets are over price and the average person starts to position them self for a crash usually what happens is the market continues its trend until the doomsday or's finally give up and then the market corrects. + +I could be wrong but the amount of people I see on the sidelines calling a crash reminds me of many other Situation's. + +Actually I want to say that for the people waiting for interest rates to go higher are likely going to be waiting until 2022 or 2023. By that time the housing market could go up another five or 10%. If there was some kind of correction it could bring us down to today's prices or early 2021 prices but with higher interest rates. + +My advice would be trying to time the market isn't the way to go. + +For the people waiting for the crash it is likely you will be waiting multiple months or even years before something fundamentally changes +My immediate family were very proud and I guess relieved that they don’t have to worry about me and I’ll be ok if anything happens. + +My friends weren’t happy. (Of course they verbally said they were) I can feel that they’re jealous in the little comments that slip through and they probably think I don’t deserve it. (They have higher academic degrees and has more prestigious jobs, why should I be making/keeping this much money?) + +What has been your experience? +Further, what are your biggest pet peeves with your peers. What do you see other economists saying or doing that makes you think, “we’re all full of crap” + +Spill the tea +I’m just venting…. +So i used to setup iron condors, buy shares to write calls on, and speculate on stocks. I made over 7k net profit (58%) plus more on crypto and other crap. After listening to a bunch of value investors talking about Walmart, apple, Berkshire Hathaway and other companies and how many baggers you would have made if u invested a while ago and didn’t touch it and reinvested dividends and…. i realized i want to be a value guy. With times being hard for value investors i ended up buying 17k+ of baba and kept buying more with extra money from paychecks as the price kept plummeting. Now i am down a helllllll lotta money. More importantly, i feel so stupid and insecure now. I got a bunch of people in stocks and told them to buy SPY for rest of their working careers and they are up 20%+ and happy, while i (with all my knowledge) have lost not just all my gains but my entire portfolio is in the red. U guys ever get the urge to just yolo ur money into some meme stock otm calls or is it just me atm? +Warren Buffet and others have said that average investors suck at stock picking and should stick to the index funds. But how do you define average investor? Is it average person? + +When I look to other investing subreddits I see people holding tesla or other overvalued stocks. Well of course I expect those people not only to underperform the market, but underperform it severely. + +Is average investor someone who can do simple DFC analysis and is slightly competent at reading financial statements? Or is it someone who does not know what DFC analysis is and pick stocks based on his feelings? + +From my point of view beating something which is average is not usually very hard (for example scoring above average in math tests). But it depends what is the average, in no way I can beat for example average singer. +I see I received the inconclusive flair, I guess that is fair because there are still a lot of questions unanswered. What I find a bit sad is that the mods didnt reached out to me for more information. + +Friday Etoro dropped a bombshell that they had around [1.5% of all GME shareholders](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nmos5k/what_the_actual_fuck_did_etoro_just_say/) on their platform. + +People took this information with a bucket of salt, because how was it possible for Etoro to possibly know this. for them to know this they must either a) know the total amount of GME-shareholders across all brokerage firms or b) someone legit provided them with this data + +According to the screenshot below (not mine, please ape come forward so you can get the credit: -> it was u/jd94jd) and u/silver-reserve-3764 (please check his post [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np9k08/etoro\_update\_so\_far/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np9k08/etoro_update_so_far/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) for more information) is doing a following up with etoro. + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +**Edit11: I have received a lot of flack for** u/jd94jd **being my source because apperantly he is active on GME\_meltdown. so let me clear some stuff up. was he active yes, did he engage with members on that subreddit yes he was, did he inquire an counter argument yes he did.But what has been ommitted from this is that he is banned on GME\_meltdown.Also it is healthy for an investigation the gather all sides of an argument, I lurk at GME\_meltdown all the time to look for counter DD I can investigate.and by the way, you know who else is active on that subreddit and engages in arguments** u/atobitt. **Does that make him a shill? ofcourse not, because there is nothing wrong with discussing this with anyone.** + +Got the screenshot from the [GME Timeline](https://gmetimeline.com/) If you dont know the site, please check it out. its an incredible summary by date of all things related GME, I use it to keep me up to date with this new information and DD around. + +[First conversation regarding the 1.5% number](https://preview.redd.it/n0e50pukvg271.png?width=501&format=png&auto=webp&s=3890044abf807dd727de85d95b8d0495649e4dee) + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit 5: Alright have been in contact with the original poster of the screens (*u/jd94jd*)* + +*He can Confirm the following, He had this chat-convo with etoro last Friday (****28th of May, 2021****)He is speaking with Etoro as you are reading this to confirm that Etoro indeed has 20 Million customers/clients (*[*20M clients are on Etoro*](https://imgur.com/a/s5QJoie)*)* + +*Also to Clarify this once and for all. the 1.5% is the amount of* ***SHAREHOLDERS***. *that Means 1.5% of the total count of all GME* ***INVESTORS***\*, Etoro does clarify this in their conversation with\* u/jd94jd *as can be seen here* [*https://imgur.com/a/X2S6NMt*](https://imgur.com/a/X2S6NMt) + +*Also the question on how the calculated the 6.71% has been asked to verify and clarify this.* u/jd94jd *is awaiting their answer on this matter. The request has been escalated and he is waiting for the response by mail, The moment it comes in we will share this with you.* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit6:* u/jd94jd *has been an absolute trooper, he has provided me with an excerpt of his conversation with Etoro* [*which can be seen here*](https://smallpdf.com/pdf-reader?job=1622483718788)*. you can see that the etoro support agent can not reveal to much but* u/jd94jd *is all over him like some sort of rabid ape trying to use the correct syntax to get some answers.* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit10: Me and u/Silver-Reserve-3764 have been in contact with u/jd94jd and he provided us with the [following conversation](https://imgur.com/a/77rsmZy) he has with eToro, about TSLA and how they come up with number of owners of TSLA on their platform, and what that number represents.you look at this and form your own conclusions... but it seems to me that if they say that this works for TSLA then it works the same for GME + +So if you follow the linke you will see the following: + +**Question:** *Ok, so would it be ok to run through a quick example?* + +*For example, if you had 10 million registered accounts, and the sentiment said "10% of our investors invest in this stock" that would mean 1 million people invest in the stock?* + +**Answer:** *Yes you're Correct, is there anything else i can help you with?* + +**Question:** *Are you 100% sure? sorry about all the questions, it is just very important* + +**Answer:** *Yes I'm definitely sure* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +So Gamestop themselves provided Etoro with that 1.5% data, + +Along with the knowledge that 6.71% of Etoros userbase has GME. + +&#x200B; + +[https://preview.redd.it/ksbd4yfkwg271.png?width=283&format=png&auto=webp&s=de99df2f930e57711e0c04e685a08364ddd19bb3](https://preview.redd.it/ksbd4yfkwg271.png?width=283&format=png&auto=webp&s=de99df2f930e57711e0c04e685a08364ddd19bb3) + +Maff time + +Etoro has around 20M clients + +6.71% of 20M = 1.34M GME investors on Etoro (1.342.000 in total) + +1.34M = 1.5% of all GME holders which means there are 89M GME investors. (89.466.666 in total) + +So there are more investors of GME then there are Shares out there. + +Edit14: Maybe 89M investors looks incredible huge and hard to fathom, but if we take a look at he world population: 7.9B people. if we substract the percentage that is under 18 ( 29.3% ) we get 5.585B people. ([source)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world) + +89M possible shareholders / 5.585B people able to buy stock \* 100 to get a percentage = 1.59% of the world population would be a shareholder. + +So on a world scale the number 89M isnt that large. + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit12: I want to clear something up here, the main counter argument I receive is that 6.71% of 20M must be wrong because eToro only has only 1.2M funded accounts, if that is true then eToro blatantly lies about there active user base. (source:[https://comparebrokers.co/etoro-review/)Also](https://comparebrokers.co/etoro-review/)Also) when opening a Trading account on eToro, you must make an deposit of $200 doesnt this mean that in fact all of those accounts have Funds.So what does the term "Funded accounts" mean anyway, + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit13: according to the following [article](https://www.tradingsitereviews.com/best-funded-accounts/) a funded account means the following: + +***"What Is a Funded Account -*** *Many companies are ready to provide traders with fully funded trading accounts. Not every trader has sufficient funds to start trading on exchanges. Companies are looking for traders that already have their own winning strategies and can use different trading tools to make a stable profit. As a rule, day traders must go through an assessment phase. In order to get a funded account and the right to use it for trading on exchanges, traders usually need to prove that they can trade successfully either using simulated accounts or by attending trading courses. After completing an evaluation phase, a trader may start earning from day one and obtain his share of the total profit.* + +*Funded accounts are divided into several types according to the choice of assets being traded."* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit9: I see a LOT of suggestions that the real active number of eToro users with GME is around the 96.660 holders(*[Confirmation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/npmaym/some_accurate_data_straight_from_etoro_api_calls/)*).* + +*If 96.660 are 1.5% of the total number of hodlers, then we have total of 6.4M shareholders.if 6.4M is correct, then we with an 12 shares on average would give us more then the number of issued shares.* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*EDIT: if we take our 89M Gme holders and apply the average of 14.5 Shares per holder (provided from* [*Nordnet data*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nnngl6/update_dd_i_did_the_math_latest_nordnet_and/)*) we have a minimum of 1.29B shares. this is pure assumption. if we take an absolute conservative number of 2 we still have 178M shares, which is also batshit insane.* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*EDIT2: Added link to GME timeline* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit3: alright I see a lot of "etoro allows fractional shares" lets put those numbers to work. it has been stated that the real float is around 21M these are the shares that are not held by insiders or institutions. That means if we divide the 21M with the 89M holders we still own the float even if the average is 0.23 share per holder..* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit4: please even after this post, it is still important to exercise your right to* ***vote. (Buy the dip, Hodl, VOTE)*** + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit5: See above in post* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +*Edit6: posted some correct exact values as people where starting to complain that the title is missleading as it isnt over 89M (Surprise Apes.. it is.. I was just lazy and rounded down to get some handy whole numbers)* + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit7: I am trying to answer as much of your questions as possible (in the comments and in DMs) I also received a shitload of shill questions, troll actions and some threats... so we must be on something good here! But for now I am trying to enjoy some free time that I have left. Most questions are answered in the post. If I receive some new information I will update this asap. Thnx for all the awards and Upvotes, I will see you all on the moon. + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit8: changed some Grammar and words, because for some reason my english is terrible. + +\-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Edit9: added the suggested number of GME holders on eToro (still awaiting confirmation) (96.660) + +&#x200B; +I’m staying in an oceanfront villa right now, but I can’t sleep because a GIGANTIC yacht is blasting middle eastern club music off shore from my bedroom. + +I am annoyed but also find it quite funny that this is my current life problem. I thought some in this group would appreciate it. + +On the off chance that the owner of said boat is in this sub, turn your music down and congrats on the epic boat that illuminates the entire sea beneath you. +I would post to /r/depression but there is no activity there. + +I just need some emotional support right now. I have only 1 friend, I’m super far behind on bills and have shit to last me til Thursday somehow, I’m in a comical amount of debt and now have chronic pain. + +Birthdays are supposed to be happy but I’ve just been crying since I woke up, because after 35 years on this planet I have literally nothing to show for it. I wish I turned 80 today instead, at least then I’d be closer to death. I struggle with suicidal thoughts all the time too. + + +I’m just miserable 😩 + + + +I’ve had to make threads in financial assistance subs more than once so I can get to work for the week. It’s pathetic. Being poor is causing what seems like permanent trauma I’m going to have to learn to live with. + + +Edit :thank you everybody for the birthday wishes. I’m trying to respond to each of you but if I missed you still thank you. + +I was wondering if maybe this wasn’t relevant to post in this sub. But it turns out that it’s extremely relevant and there are a lot of us in similar situations. Its shitty that so many feel like I do but I’m glad to know I’m not alone. + +Edit 2: I just want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart. You guys have an incredible amount of empathy and some really great advice. I needed to hear all of it. I’m feeling a little better now, thank you. + + +Edit 4: had to edit to bring post in compliance. +Good afternoon r/dividends, + +It has been awhile. For those who do not know me, I am Firstclass30, the lead moderator of r/dividends since August of 2020. I am the one who built up the current team of moderators and created the subreddit rules, icons, assets, policies, and spam filters from scratch. + +For the past two months, I have for the most part been off Reddit. Living my life here in Kentucky. My wife and I moved, I got a promotion. Lot of things nobody here cares about. Point is, I was busy. Originally I had planned to leave the subreddit alone for two weeks to let all the moderators I had trained work their magic and see how they performed without supervision, however those two weeks turned into months, which came without any notice. To that, I apologize. As the lead moderator of the community, I probably should've told at least one person I would be gone, but that was my bad. If I have to make another extended absence (like when my wife and I have kids at some point), ill be sure to let someone know. + +I can see the community has continued to grow and to thrive in my absence. Membership is up, as are views to the subreddit. They are continuing their upward trend. I find that favorable. But that is not why I am making this post. + +Over the past two months I have missed 99.9% of what has gone on in r/dividends. I am creating this thread to request your feedback. Basically, how are things? Is there a moderator going mad with power? Are the Reddit admins screwing everything up again? Are there any bugs/glitches with automoderator that need fixing? Do we need more user flair? + +I will be reading every single comment on this thread, so this will be your opportunity to make your feelings heard. Tell me what needs to be said, what needs to be done. What direction has the subreddit gone in since my absence? Where do you see it going in the future? Has r/dividends been helpful to you, and if so, why or why not? + +I can already tell you there will be some vacancies in moderation that will need to be filled. The subreddit has (in my opinion) grown beyond the capacity of the current moderation team, and a few questionable decisions have been made in my opinion during my absence, but I want to hear what the community has to say, since that has always been my first concern. I want to continue to help this community become one of the best places on Reddit. + +Thank you for participating in r/dividends, + +Firstclass30 +Welcome to the Daily Discussion [Serious] thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or support issues. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, memes, or any other low-effort content should be redirected to the Daily Moontalk thread. To visit this thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Discussion+%5BMoontalk%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +* **This thread will no longer be stickied so please remember to upvote it for visibility.** + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! +It can be anything. I know long term investments have made my parents millionaires but I don’t want to wait 40 years to become a millionaire. I work in tech right now and at a junior level but there’s only so much money most people in tech make a year. So I’m brainstorming other ways to make my first million. +It can be anything. I know long term investments have made my parents millionaires but I don’t want to wait 40 years to become a millionaire. I work in tech right now and at a junior level but there’s only so much money most people in tech make a year. So I’m brainstorming other ways to make my first million. +Trying to add some levity instead of the usual “please help me with XYZ problem as I am trying to make money.” + +Background: Liquid NW about 15.5M. Invested 100% in broad market funds. Still working medium stress jobs that we like bringing in about 900k HHI. Keeps us occupied. No kids. + +Relevance to FatFIRE: soliciting people’s funny experiences with stealth wealth. Might come across as self congratulatory, sorry. + +I used to love nice German cars, nice restaurants, travel, but since COVID a lot of that has gotten reset and I realized I didn’t mind not having as many expensive things. In fact, it has been strangely freeing. I ditched my AMG roadster last month and haven’t looked back. + +I am liking the whole stealth thing, but there can be some awkward interactions. Was at the dentist today and had to get a crown replaced, but have already used most of my dental insurance this year on frequent cleanings (which I like). New benefits person working there and they were concerned and were explaining to me various payment plans and options available and I was staring at them like they were a crazy person. I saw the bill ($1300) and I am wondering why were we talking for 5 minutes about this, she should’ve just said what the amount is up front and we would have saved time. I looked at my shoes and clothes and then I got it. Old ratty crap. I also felt embarrassed of thinking this way because I realized for a lot of people this is real money. Our primary residence is on the water and worth 4.5M in today’s market so I’m not actively trying to be frugal. + +I have a friend who is higher NW who likes going into car dealerships dressed in casual clothes (read: like a bum) to see how they will treat him. That’s weird to me, maybe he gets off on that but I can see how it is entertaining. + +Am I just an abnormal tightwad or getting old and jaded on nice things? Or is it COVID and we have fewer wants now in this weird world and gotten used to it? Y’all feeling similar? Or have I strayed from or don’t belong to the FatFIRE way anymore? + +What experiences have people who live comfortably here have had when not flashing wealth that made you think “that was weird” or “that was funny”? +My dad's house was last appraised at around 400k, but allegedly with some improvements (finishing unfinished rooms, roof replacement, etc.) it'd be worth closer to 450k. He has 250k left on the mortgage, and he's offering to sell it to me at that. Haven't had it inspected yet but from what my dad has told me there aren't any huge concerns. He's only selling because he's recently retired and had a house built elsewhere. + +If not yet obvious, I'm house-buying illiterate and while I'd like to buy a house in the future, I'm very comfortable renting right now. Moving to the house would add 40 minutes each way to my commute, and it's located in a community way off the beaten path about 20 minutes from the nearest grocery store. Not a big fan of that. I love the house itself, it's the house I grew up in and if I was 15 years older with kids it'd be a no-brainer, but I'm not very interested in living like that right now. + +My idea is to maybe take the offer, complete the renovations and sell the house as soon as possible, but I'm pretty sure that'll be a lot more complicated than it is in my head. It'd also involve paying both rent and a mortgage, which I might be able to swing while the work is being done but it'd be tight. Rental/AirBNB is also an option but the location doesn't have much demand. + +Would it be dumb to pass up this offer though? I feel like I'll never see a deal like this again if I do. Any other ideas? Thanks in advance. + +Edit: Lots of comments, lots to think about. So far what I've taken away is that I should have a good long discussion with my dad about this, definitely get an inspection done if I decide to pull the trigger, and probably lean towards renting it out considering my circumstances. Also shouldn't let myself get shackled to property I don't want in pursuit of a good deal. Still a lot to think about. Appreciate it guys. +Work in a large ASX listed org that went through a wave of redundancies after COVID. + +* I joined said org on a package of 115k +* After a year or so, they started advertising for a manager type role. After 3 months they didn't secure a candidate and so they offered me the role given I was already doing the tasks that were required of this role at 125k. I accepted after being told it was a difficult time and there was very limited room for negotiation. +* I later found out that the role had been marketed to candidates in the 145-155k salary range. I know this to be the case because I bumped into a candidate (also a former colleague) who rejected the role because the salary was below par for industry +* Livid after learning this I decided to start applying to competitor orgs and have this morning secured a role at 175k +* Given my current org couldn't fill the role after 3 months for 145 - 155k range, If I take this role they will need to lift their salary range for the role to 170-180 anyway with the difference being they'll find a candidate that knows nothing about the business and will need to be brought up to speed + +Lessons: + +1. Don't believe HR +2. Do your research and know what you're worth +3. It doesn't pay to be loyal + +Keen to hear of other similar experiences + + +\*\*EDIT - Thank you all for your comments. After reading them it seems like I've been living under a rock and that this happens a lot more than I thought or was aware of. I definitely made mistakes and I certainly could have done my research and also challenged HR. +Hello Fatfire, + +I'm coming here for advice because I feel like you folks might have more relevant things to say than the normal personalfinance crowd. So my fiancé and I are wedding planning, and as I probably should of expected, it's prenup discussion time. He comes from a family worth mid 10 digits and he has a trust that will allow him to live a middle class life without having to ever actually work. He still works, but instead of working for money, he works low paying jobs that he loves and enjoys. + +I am the opposite. I work in tech exclusively for the money. The problem I'm facing is that if anything were to ever happen to us and we divorce, I'm expecting I would get completely screwed in every way in court. + +I work in tech make multiple times more than what he makes, have 2 investment properties, and I'm stacking my retirement and brokerage accounts as much as I can. + +He saves $0 from what he makes working (since he doesn't have to) and all of his assets are within an irrevocable trust that is managed by his families lawyers etc. On paper he has nothing to his name. He's also going to be gaining access to another \~$5M over the next 5-10 years as he hits age milestones, but again, it's all in his families trusts so nothing in his personal name. + +I'm wondering, since we do live in a community property state, how do I avoid getting lambasted if anything were to happen to us since on paper I make so much more and have so many more assets than him? How do I avoid him getting alimony, equity in my properties, parts of my investment accounts etc? Also how can I avoid his family crushing me under lawyer fees? The potential lawyer costs are honestly a huge thing for me. His family has a team of accountants/lawyers that manages their business and assets and they could just drown me if they wanted to. + +I know I'm going to get the answer of "just don't get married", I know that already, that's not why I'm here. + +And I also know that I should talk to my own lawyer. I'm planning to and thankfully his family is giving me a blank check to pay for whatever lawyer I go with. They say it's mutually beneficial for the both of us which is why they want to cover it (which to me just means it won't get thrown out by a judge if it's done by a real lawyer). I'm just trying to prepare ahead of time. +This is a post intended for entertainment/educational purposes only. + +As someone who enjoyed the game of chess and has a background in finance and valuation, I thought it would be fun to attempt and value the [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) website. Not the entire company (that includes Play Magnus, Chessable, their social media platforms, etc), but only the website. + +I did my best to estimate the active users on the platform, the split between free and premium users, the revenue that the website generates from each, and the profit margin. Feel free to make assumptions that are significantly different than mine and to share insights that could help in the process. + +As it is a private company, with limited public information available, this has been a lot of fun! I hope that is being appreciated here. + +The link is here and below you can find the analysis in written form for those who prefer to read: [https://youtu.be/GlqgOLSdrlA](https://youtu.be/GlqgOLSdrlA) + +In a nutshell, the websites generate money both from the free users (through ads) and the premium users (through the subscription). + +However, these numbers aren't available anywhere. + +&#x200B; + +**The number of users** + +Based on Wikipedia, [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) has over 95m members. Can this be trusted? Not really, there's no source and it doesn't point out to the **active** users. The inactive ones are irrelevant for understanding the value of the website as they don't generate any revenue. + +Based on a simple Google search, I got two results, both coming from the website: + +1. A sponsored Google ad where the website is the place to meet over **40m** chess players +2. The [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) website itself that mentions there are over **50m** members from around the world. + +Not only that the Wikipedia numbers are too high, but the [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) website also isn't aligned internally. It is either that the Google ad has been on autopilot since they had 40m users, or there are 10m who just don't want to meet you. + +In any case, none of this points out to the active users, which is what is most important. + +So, I looked into the online players and noted the numbers down at different times of the day. The average was around 240k. That means, on average, there are 240k users who play chess on the platform. Of course, this is at a point in time. How can we get to the total? Also, someone who plays 60 blitz games a day is more valuable than someone who plays fa ew games a week. So many variables! So, what can be done? + +I looked at a poll on how much time per day is being spent playing/studying chess. The average was around 1 hour. That helps with the equation. Basically, if 240k is the average number of online players and on average they play for an hour, there are 5,760,000 active users on any given day (240k multiplied by 24 hours). + +I looked at a few tournaments to identify how many of the users have a flair (pointing out that they are premium members) and noticed that I get somewhere between 10 and 11%. However, the premium users have the option to not use a flair. I would assume that these are the minority, so my split between free and premium users was 88% - 12%. + +That leads to 5,068,800 free users and 691,200 premium users active on average during a day. + +There aren't that many ads on the website, so it is definitely not the case that the website makes lots of money through that. I estimated that at $1 per member per year. That assumes around 400/500 ads seen by an active member (that's logging every day), between 1 and 2 a day. + +As for the premium users, there are various packages, so I assumed the average is around $7/month. + +This seems logical, however, the number of premium users is currently understated if I multiply them with the subscription, basically, it means that the same 691,200 users are online every day, which isn't the case. The 691,200 premium users are the average that I estimated to be online on a given day. Chess, as many will agree, is a pretty addictive game. So, I assumed that on average, 50% of the premium users are online on any given day, doubling the # of premium users to 1,382,400. + +**The financials** + +Taking the numbers above, the revenue of [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) in any given year is $121,190,400. A company in this industry has a net profit margin of anywhere between 15% and 25%. Assuming theirs is 20%, the estimated yearly profit is around $24,238,080. + +Based on the fundamentals of the company (and some data coming from Google Trends), I expect that the # of members slowly increases over time (<5% a year), hence I'm using a so-called "P/E multiple" of 14. + +This brings the valuation of the website to $339,333,120. + +Could I be wrong? Absolutely! Look at all the assumptions that I made. + +**What if?** + +If I overstated the # of premium users, combined with the average premium subscription of $7 and the profit margin and the P/E ratio, then the valuation could decrease to **$155m.** + +On the other hand, if I underestimated them, the valuation could go as high as **$672m.** + +&#x200B; + +**Hans Niemann's lawsuit** + +One segment in the lawsuit refers to [Chess.com](https://Chess.com) as a "multi-billion dollar behemoth". + +Based on my analysis, I cannot justify a valuation even to $1bn, let alone over $2bn. + +For this to be the case, the website needs to have over 6m premium users which, if we reverse engineer the formula, means that only 14% of the premium users are online on any given day. This, I find too low, taking into account the addictiveness of chess. + +&#x200B; + +I hope you enjoyed this! +Posting for some motivation and advice. My fatfire ambitions need to be paused. + +Work at FAANG. Been here for just over 1 year. I am actually glad that they let me go. I have been frequently burnt out, horrible team, and had the worst year in my life so far. Really worried about my career, family and ability to fatfire, since high paying jobs are not that easy to come by. + +Fortunately my wife makes 260K per year, but we live in a VHCOL with 2 kids, we cannot afford our lifestyle, mortgage etc.. with one salary. + +Edit: sudden lifestyle inflation big house recently, kids at private schools. + +I am getting 70K worth of severance. Not worried about supporting our family in the short term since we have enough savings. + +I am thinking of talking 4 months off to recharge and get my health back. However, I am worried about employability since it’s a red flag to leave FAANG in one year when everyone else want to get there, my resume is filled with <18 month stints. I thought I would stay at FAANG for a long time but it did not work out. +Any advice welcome. +What do economists think of models of socialism where the means of production are owned by the workers, not the state, operating through a mixed market? Is such a thing even feasible? +Article: https://www.ft.com/content/90eca82e-498e-4145-91a7-6b19cfe49170 + +> Elon Musk tweeted a complaint about Tesla’s share price that wiped $14bn off the company’s stock market value on Friday morning. + + Tesla did not immediately confirm whether Mr Musk’s tweet had been given legal clearance, and did not respond to a question about whether the company currently has a general counsel. Tesla lost three general counsels last year, one of them quitting after only two months. + + + The Tesla boss, who has 33m followers on Twitter, issued his curt verdict on his company’s shares early in the morning in California on Friday, writing: “Tesla stock price is too high imo.” + +Within moments the Tesla share price started sinking, dropping 10 per cent over the course of an hour before recovering slightly. The sharp move comes in what has been a hugely volatile period for Tesla’s shares. They slumped more than 60 per cent after coronavirus hit, but then rebounded by 120 per cent. + + + + +> +The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2021 to David Card “for his empirical contributions to labour economics”, and to Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”. + +#### Nobel Prize Committee + +* [Video announcement](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUTRasDkXK0) +* [Summary](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/summary/) +* [Press release](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2021/press-release/) +* [Popular science background: Natural experiments help answer important questions](https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/10/popular-economicsciencesprize2021.pdf) +* [Scientific Background: Answering causal questions using observational data](https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2021/10/advanced-economicsciencesprize2021.pdf) + +#### Press coverage + +* [NYT: Nobel in economics goes to David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens.](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/business/nobel-economics-prize-david-card-joshua-angrist-guido-imbens.html) +* [CNN: Nobel Prize in economics awarded to David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/11/business/nobel-prize-economics-winner-2021-intl/index.html) +* [CNBC: Nobel Prize in economics awarded to David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/11/nobel-prize-in-economics-awarded-to-david-card-joshua-d-angrist-and-guido-w-imbens.html) +* [AP: 3 US-based economists win Nobel for research on wages, jobs](https://apnews.com/article/nobel-prizes-business-europe-3cbc672f994ae6f4f486a68b52c2bb32) + +This page will be expanded with additional news coverage and commentary as the day progresses. Please direct all Nobel discussion here. +I've seen some stocks recently that have blown up over night and I've started to wonder how people figure that out? I know it requires research and everything, but where would I begin with that? + +Any type of advice or direction to go would be very helpful. I've seen alot of talk about stocktwits, but I have no idea how to use the app correctly yet or who to even follow on there. +As the pandemic appears to be easing, at least in the UK, there is much talk of ‘opening up’ and ‘revival’. This may be the case for some industries, but the world (and perhaps the markets) are largely ignoring the rumbling crisis in global shipping that took root last autumn and shows no signs of improvement. + +I run a business that imports containers of freight from the Far East into the UK each year, here is what I’m seeing: + +Throughout 2019 we were paying around $1750 for ocean freight from our most used Chinese port into the UK. **This rate is now in excess of $10000.** This shows few signs of [improvement](https://en.sse.net.cn/indices/scfinew.jsp). If you sell cheap items that take up a lot of space in containers that has huge ramifications for product cost. It’s easily possible that item price may double or more just because of increased shipping cost alone. + +The Suez issue in March isn’t to blame per se, but didn’t help. In April over half of our planned shipments were cancelled or delayed. Shipping lines are operating around 10% ‘blank sailings’ (where the whole sailing is cancelled), where there is a successful sailing it is hugely capacity constrained and historical ‘guaranteed space’ contracts with shipping lines are just being ripped up. There is also a huge shortage of physical containers to load stock into. + +**In my opinion many retailers will find that a large amount of their stock will not arrive this Christmas.** I’m sure many suppliers are not yet making customers aware of this possibility. The issue is that the capacity problems don’t just create a short term issue, they create a huge global backlog. When so much consumer spending is seasonally tilted to Q4 each calendar year this situation just doesn’t work, everything breaks. If Christmas stock arrives on December 26th it’s pointless. The supply/demand situation in shipping has no chance of returning to any sort of ‘normal’ this year, so stock will just not arrive on time in many cases. + +**What does this all mean? The obvious result is high inflation of consumer prices on many imported goods.** The official inflation predictions do not match my live experience. + +There is a desperation from retail to regain lost sales caused by the pandemic. Not only are sea freight rates unfathomably higher than before, but because retailers are so desperate to make up for lost sales it has meant that production areas in the Far East are having a bumper year of huge orders, with demand pushing item prices up (in our case) 40%-50% for stock and end customers (the retailers) left with no choice but to accept increases, often in our case with no clear picture of what the final cost will be (the delivered price we quote currently includes a ‘variable’ shipping rate to be stated at the time of shipment, whenever that is). I’m having conversations that effectively go: + +Customer: ‘We’re relying on this stock to help us bounce back from covid, we’ve been closed for months and footfall is minimal’. + +Importer: ‘Ok, we’re going to have to charge you 50% more than last year, plus a shipping supplement, and we don’t know when it will arrive’. + +Customer: ‘Well, we have no choice…’ + +Order your Christmas presents now! What does this mean for the markets? Who knows, but everyone seems to be largely turning a blind eye to an issue that’s already gone too far to prevent. +The course gives a broad overview of introductory finance that most here will obviously already know. + +The first reason I thought it worth sharing is because the teacher (Andrew Lo) is probably the best and most passionate finance professor I've ever seen. Really hooks you into the lectures. + +The second is that the course is filmed during the height of the subprime crisis, and each lecture starts with a discussion of recent events and how they relate to concepts in the course. Very interesting to hear perspectives and how they progress throughout the crisis. + + +[Lecture Series](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdHlfiOAJyE&list=PLUl4u3cNGP63B2lDhyKOsImI7FjCf6eDW) + +For those of you that want a great discussion/explanation about what caused the mispricing of subprime mortgages (as opposed to the superficial one given in The Big Short), I would recommend the following section from + +[Lecture 7: Fixed-Income Securities IV](https://youtu.be/ZWKnK9LIETA?t=1983) +As a response to the guy who got margin called yesterday: +1. If you’re leveraged to the tits and all your capital is tied up in trades +2. If your account can’t stomach the max loss of a position, + +You honestly deserve to lose it all. Maybe I’m just insanely conservative, but I always have at least 1/3 in cash to manage positions that go against me. If you blow up your account that fast and that easily in thetagang, you’re just doing an overcomplicated version of WSB with less upside. So if you think about it, you’re actually a worse trader than anyone over at WSB. +Fucking learn risk management, it’s not that hard. +There truly is no mentally taxing profession that those of us locked into day trading. Most day traders have therapists, psychiatric help basically being a requirement, and it’s really no wonder why. + +Of course we all make jokes, it’s part of the human condition to do so, but we’ve also all felt the despair of truly being Bogged, whether it’s selling too early or way too late. Knowing that financial freedom was as simple as destroying your laptop after you bought the token and then checking a week later is hard to come to grips with. + +Luckily, HappyCoin is here to solve this problem on two fronts. With 5% of all transactions reflected to $HAPPY owners, the **charity wallet** that the developers have set aside is designed to be the top holder and continue expanding as the token sees exponential activity. + +With the charity wallet, the team will decide on a **new mental health organization to donate to every Friday**, ensuring that we share the love and keep our ears to the ground and to our community on where $HAPPY could best be spread 😊 😊 😊 + +Otherwise, we’ll also be looking to give everyone a 2nd chance at those tokens you missed before. HOGE, SafeMoon, <insert Elon coin here>, whatever you might have been regretting selling out of or even outright ignoring, this is your chance to get in right at the beginning **(currently less than 100 holders!!!)** on a token with a **huge marketing team** and experienced developers behind them. + +So if you shorted DOGE, don’t despair. There’s still time to make more $HAPPY with the team having **renounced ownership** and **burned all LP**, making this project **unruggable**. An **extremely low market cap** **of $20k** (this coin **just started less than an half an hour ago** and the momentum already has been nothing short of, erm, crazy). It’s a testament to the marketing plan that has clearly been devised with every contingency in mind and every available tool being considered. + +On this holy holiday, let’s make the world a $HAPPY-er place! Starting of course with your wallet, so add some $HAPPY to your life and you’ll be able to show everyone that sweet smile, shit-eating grin even, when you let them know you found inner peace in finding success and contributing to goodwill, and outer peace in relaxing, work-free, in your quaint marble mansion. + +Links below: + +[Website](https://www.thehappycoin.co/) + +happy\_coinTG + +[Pancakeswap](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb0b924c4a31b7d4581a7f78f57cee1e65736be1d) + +[Chart](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xB0B924C4a31b7d4581a7F78F57ceE1E65736Be1D) +Help, my financial life is destroyed and I don’t know what to do next. + +Long story short, I am going through a terrible divorce and have accumulated a ton of debt paying for lawyers. Losing my house and retirement and have to pay alimony and child support. I am just sinking here. How do I move forward? Specific questions below. + +**Details:** 35 (M) with 3 year old son, 50/50 custody - Memphis, TN - 646 credit score + +**Current Monthly Income:** Gross - $9667 / Net - $7205 + +**Debts:** + * - Chase Freedom Credit Card: $6905/$8500 @ 22.99% +* - Chase Sapphire Credit Card: $10,724/17,500 @ 22.99% +* - American Express Everyday: $33,133/$35,000 @ 12.99% +* - American Express Hilton: $8750/$10,000 @ 24.74% +* - Wells Fargo Signature Credit Card: $5319/$5900 @ 17.15% +* - Citi Rewards Credit Card: $1890/$3000 @ 0% until 6/22 then 25.24% +* - Wells Fargo Line of Credit: $16,902/$18,000 @ 17.75% +* - Upgrade Debt Consolidation Loan: $24,215 @ 13.67% +* - 2016 VW Car note: $12,153/$16,000 @ 3.49% +* - 2019 Federal Income Tax owed: $29,500 - no idea status +* - TN department of Revenue tax owed: $3500 - in process of appeal +* - Outstanding Lawyer Fees owed: $45,000 +* - Student Loans: $70,000, paying $310/mo + + +**Monthly expenses:** +* - Health/Dental/Vision/Life Insurance: $715 +* - Car note: $247 +* - Car Insurance: $144 +* - Minimum credit card payments: $1388 +* - Food/Groceries: $500 +* - Internet: $80 +* - Cell phone (2y contract): $120 +* - Clothes/toiletries/etc: $100 +* - Gasoline: $200 +* - Child Support: $750 +* - Alimony: $1000 +* - Est. Gas/elec/water/sewer/trash: $200 +* - Streaming Services: $43 +* - Therapy Appointments: $100 +* - Line of Credit payment: $200 +* - Debt consolidation loan: $584 +* - Student Loans: $310 +* - Housing: ??? +* - Total monthly Expenses: $6681, $524 remaining + +**Assets:** +* - Checking account: $2,105 +* - Cash: $20,000 +* - VW GTI: approx. $15k, $12k owed +* - 2004 F350: approx value $20k (trying to sell) +* - Etherium: $6,308 +* - Stocks: $4,252 +* - Remaining 401k: $10,321 + +Advice welcome, please try to be positive I know I am screwed. + +**Specific Questions:** +* 1. How do I find a place to live for $524? 2 bedroom is needed for son. No friends/family I can live with atm. Average 2BR rent in Memphis seems to be $700 - $2000 depending on neighborhood. A $700 rental is in an extremely bad part of town. Should I use my cash as a down payment on a cheap house in bad neighborhood ($70k) instead of rent? Estimated monthly mortgage payment of ~$350 +* 2. Should I use my cash to pay down credit cards? Buy cheap house? Keep some for emergencies? +* 3. Should I try to get a second job (tough with 50/50 custody) any recommendations? +* 4. What should I do about IRS debt? I have received letters, saying to pay full amount. Called 2 CPA’s and no returned calls yet. Possible payment plan or some relief? +* 5. Should I sell my stocks and Etherium to pay off credit card debt immediately? Currently at a losing position in both, estimated loss $4000. + +Thank you for the help. Just drowning here. +Title says it all. + +Tesla's earnings in the first quarter were $438 million. + +$101 million (23%) of that came from selling Bitcoin for profit. + +The other interesting part is that it would have been an earnings miss without the trading. + +Did one make the other happen? + +Considering the recent news about not allowing Bitcoin anymore, it's certainly a move worth mentioning. + +As highlighted by Scott Galloway: https://twitter.com/profgalloway/status/1393232146681286664 +Productivity has increased a lot why are we still working everyday has it become just a formal thing so we do unnecessary work +I know people like to work on passion projects but most people are doing work just to earn money +I would prefer not to get into personal details because it's quite painful, but I am a 29 year old who has inherited 4 condos in NYC and I'm not sure what to do. It has already been almost 2 years and I am finally trying to sort out how to move ahead into the future. + +Each condo is worth between 700k and 1.4 million. We had a property manager who is continuing to help me, since I actually live in Austin. Each condo has tenants and things in general run smoothly. I'm learning about cap rates and the cap rate is low-ish, around 2.4%, but I have nice tenants who earn high salaries so payment has never been an issue. I work a normal job in IT and make around 85k/year, I do not really know much about real estate or investing. + +The properties are all owned by an S-corporation, so I inherited the shares of the corporation that owns them. I've consulted a couple accountants and it seems that the issue is that if I sell the condos, the money is treated as income and not long term capital gains (because the corp sells them, then the money taken out is income to me) meaning that I would take very heavy tax hits on each property, maybe upwards of almost 40-45%. + +One accountant said that there might be a way to use the shares of the corp to balance off the tax hit from selling the condos, but we never went further with that idea. + +I guess I'm trying to ask for advice on how to proceed. What can be done with these properties that are locked into an S-Corp? Is the best move just to keep them and take the rental income? or is there a clearly better financial move that someone could take in this position? I guess I'm just wondering if anyone has any ideas or suggestions for me. Thank you. +I feel like I’m seeing way too many posts where the main goal appears to be more masturbatory/ego-stroking than adding anything of real value or asking legitimate questions. I assume this falls into “no self promotion” but it’s like every other post now. + +E.g. “I got $20 million from my IPO can I afford a $1 million condo and FIRE?” is just cringe. Or asking a question for the sole purpose of sharing your NW when it’s clear the OP already knows the answer to their own question but just want a vehicle to ego stoke to. +The dominance of major U.S. tech stocks in recent years has pushed the sector past another milestone as it is now more valuable than the entire European stock market, according to Bank of America Global Research. + +The firm said in a note that this is the first time the market cap of the U.S. tech sector, at $9.1 trillion, exceeds Europe, which including the UK and Switzerland is now at $8.9 trillion. For reference, the firm said that in 2007, Europe was four times the size of U.S. technology stocks. + + +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/28/us-tech-stocks-are-now-worth-more-than-the-entire-european-stock-market.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard +# + +https://preview.redd.it/uvemtuigzh071.jpg?width=602&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee715ba75723759d9cc8179e80a30e2d5d010051 + +# + +# Apes, + +Just thought I'd share what I have been suspecting all along. GameStop has become a huge problem!! Not a tiny little annoying problem, no no. This is becoming a thorn in the side of the biggest players on the market. The higher ups thought retail would just tuck their tails between their legs after they coordinated a stoppage back in Jan. Dumb money would just take their licks and go back to life as usual. + +&#x200B; + +**Guess what Apes, you fucked up their plan. They were praying all this would just go away and it would be business as usual. Fuck people. They have been literally rewriting the fucking RULES because they can't ignore this problem anymore! The system is getting exposed. Short selling has been going on for years and nobody really cared. A little slight manipulation. Everyone does it. That's just how the industry works.....everyone just cheats a little and if you get caught, they slap a fine on you. Business as usual.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +I spoke with some people across multiple industries just friendly catching up type shit since I know what they do. All them said, "You know I can't talk about that" and I respect that. Every single one of them when I asked, are you at least aware the GameStop situation, every SINGLE one just said a version of, "yeah what a fucking mess". **EDIT: Mods if you want to contact me, I'm happy to speak to you. I'm taking out the part of the user to reported me because I wouldn't give up my friends names to a rabid pack of HFs lurkers, SEC lurkers, and rabid Apes. His comment is still up but I'll not Dox him even though it's a dick move on his part.** + +**Edit 2: I just wrote** u/redchessqueen99 **since we have spoken before and she can let me know what she would like from me.** + +**Edit 3: For anyone asking, they didn't give me anything. They literally can't talk about this stuff with people. All I got was a lot of we can't talk about that but what a shit show. SEC- If you are reading this, I would argue if you ask any single person in the world who understands a tiny bit about stocks; they know something is off with GameStop. Doesn't matter which side of the aisle, whether you are a bear or a bull on GME.....everyone knows something funky is going on with GameStop. Maybe you guys should be looking at some Market Makers instead of retail.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Picture this. There is a watertight sealed room with a couple different pipes of water going into it. A couple people fighting over control levers. Let's say DTCC is on a HUGE pipe. You have multiple Short Hedge Funds (SHF) controlling a ton of levers. Then you have another couple of major institutional players on a couple more levers. Everyone is having this water fight over control of this room and the water level keeps rising each an everyday. As the water level rises the stakes go up. You don't want to drown in this room. Something has to give. Enter Apes. Apes are the slow sprinkler system overhead that has been running the whole time. In the beginning it was just a nuisance but it just keeps coming raising the water level slowly. The DTCC has been trying to figure out a way to get control of these SHF's levers so they get out of the room with minimum damages to themselves. The shorts got greedy and somehow chained their leg to their lever. They would rather drown everyone than lose. The Apes will just continue raining down raising the water level until someone releases the floodgate to Tendytown. Apes can't control the movement of water but they can keep buying which raises the water level. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +The DTCC is just trying to protect their own asses and has been for months. They know the problem and are actively letting SHF's (Short Hedge Funds) operate in survival mode so they can get their rules double, triple, quadrupled checked to make sure they will protect themselves/existing members against having to payout the fraud which they allowed. There are no shares of GameStop to be had anymore, they are all in the hands of Apes by now. Apes just keep raising that water level each week. **There are literally millions more shares just on the options market than exist in the float, then if you start calculating all the OTM options, along with the institutional ownership and just guess the Apes shares........this is a fucking nightmare to them.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +They popped the ball we were playing with right when we were going to get rich in Jan. It was going to blow up the entire system. It was all a rigged game and we exploited a weak point in it. So they turned off the game because they aren't allowed to lose money. We are, that is how they stay rich. The bleed off the world because financial stuff is overly complicated on purpose so people don't pay attention to it themselves. I know I didn't for years. I just quietly dumped money into a 401k and Roth. Millions of regular Americans do the same thing. We give these Banks, Institutions, etc access to our hard earned money then they 8x leverage themselves with our money in hopes they make fat bonuses in the short term. If it doesn't work out. They will just blow everything up and get a bail out. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**So they NEED to figure out a way to quietly get out of this but the problem is too many eyes are on it now. The world is paying attention. The longer this goes, the more attention time people have to research and look for information. They are going to see the shady shit the DTCC and SEC let slide all the time. They are going to ask for answers. They are going to learn to vote out the politicians who back this system. They are going to start electing ones who will stand up for the little guys. They are going to bring more regulation the longer this goes.** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# TLDR: The longer this plays out the more we learn about this corrupt system. Naked short selling is the worst kept secret on Wall Street and everyone knows what is going on. The longer they keep kicking the can down the road, the more attention this is going to bring and people are starting to get informed. They are starting to lose the ability to control the narrative through the media. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +See ya on the moon Apes!! + +# 🚀 🚀 + +https://preview.redd.it/upoxpmo2lh071.png?width=120&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a1d076afda5cb0a4bc82e21963513c897dc103a +When I say “just closed”, I mean the ink is still wet on the closing documents. + +I’m in a HCOL area. Two years ago, I bought a condo. I didn’t realize or appreciate it at the time, but I got super lucky because my HOA is probably one of the lowest in the county but still covers 100% of the exterior (no pools or club house or other expensive common areas). The HOA is also pretty relaxed with low key CCRs. + +Two months ago, I notice the condo behind mine was suddenly vacant. I could see it was still furnished, but there wasn’t anyone living there. Through a mutual friend who knew the owners of the property, I learned that a couple had bought it to house their disabled adult son. However he started having behavioral issues and was trying to move in his toxic girlfriend, but the parents said no, so he moved out. Mutual friend said they did indeed plan to sell it, so I asked her to pass along my contact info because I was very interested. + +I was super nervous because I wanted to try to make the owners an off market offer. I knew I couldn’t compete with cash offers or a bidding war. Looking at comps on the market, another unit in our development was listed in December for $379k and sold for $420k. It sold for $41k over asking. Just insane. Looking at all the comps made me realize how desirable these condos were. We had our own private yards, no neighbors above of below (townhome style, while most others condos in town are apartment style), and each unit has a 2 car attached garage. I waited for 2 weeks for the owners to reach out to me, meanwhile researching what I could offer to make it desirable enough to accept without publicly listing. I was a ball of anxiety. I hadn’t exactly planned on buying a second property right away, but now I had this opportunity to make an offer and I didn’t want to mess it up. I started working as much overtime as I could possible take in. A supervisor at work also moonlights as an agent, and when I told him the situation and what I wanted to offer, he just laughed at me, told me I was ridiculous and they would be insane to accept it and forgo the opportunity to get into a sky high bidding war. He chastised me and acted like I was a child with no knowledge of real estate and bragged about these million dollar deals he was closing that were going for hundreds of thousands over asking. It felt super defeating. + +I finally get in touch with the owners after a couple of weeks of waiting on them to reach out to me. I explain to them my situation, how I wanted to buy the property so I could eventually have my frail aging grandmother nearby someday when she had difficulty living alone. They were empathetic because they had bought and fully remodeled the condo to house their son. But after he moved out, the parents decided they weren’t here to be landlords, so they decided to sell the condo. However, it all came at a very inopportune time, as they had just bought a new house themselves, and were trying to downsize and list their current house. It sounded they were quite overwhelmed, but they agreed to show me the unit. + +We did a walk through and it was just lovely. As they said, fully remodeled and upgraded. New floors, ceilings, tile and granite. Gorgeous cabinetry and custom drawers. The entire place had been redone. At the end of the walk through, they told me they didn’t have an asking price, but they mentioned they knew comps were selling for between $380k-$410k and wanted to know what I was willing to offer (I guess they didn’t see the $420k Comp). They also made clear that they understood I was saving them money by not using an agent, and they wanted to pass along some of those savings to me. + +I told them that while the unit was very beautiful, it wouldn’t appraise for $410k because that particular comp had some features that this one didn’t have (automatic garage door, wrap around back yard, etc). But I told them that even if we used agents who did get them tippy top dollar, they would still only walk away with less than $375k after listing fees and commissions. So I offered them $10k over that, a sale price of $385k. And I told them I would cover the expense of a real estate attorney to facilitate the entire transaction ($5k). They really loved this offer and jumped on board. Since their son had moved out and pretty much left the condo fully furnished, they gave me the opportunity to buy back the furniture in the unit: couch, love seat, coffee table, dining table and chairs, desks, twin trundle bed, queen bed, dressers, night stands, and all the wall decor. I told them that even though I loved how it had been decorated after the remodel, I really couldn’t afford to make an offer because the lawyer expenses were eating up my extra reserve cash. They understood this and told me that they loved my offer so much, they were just going to sell me the unit fully furnished as is. + +During the entire escrow, I was super nervous that the sellers would back out and decide to publicly list the unit. I knew they could be getting more than $385k for it. I thought about all the negative shit my supervisor at work had said when he laughed at my idea of an offer. To compound the stress of everything, I had a preplanned trip out of state in the middle of escrow. It was absolutely chaos trying to get all the requirements for the loan satisfied before I left town. Appraisal was completed while I was out of town, came back at $405k. This was exciting but also just peppered me with anxiety that the sellers would back out all over again. + +But here we are! Today finally arrived! We closed escrow 3 days early. I got a 2/1 condo, 1050 sq ft end unit for $20k under market value, and fully furnished on top of that. I just saw the sellers after the final signing. They gave me a huge hug and thanked me for being the lead on this transaction. They said during the hectic transition of selling their own home and moving into the new one they just bought, they were very pleased with how smooth I made this transaction for them and it was just what they needed. + +So I guess my two big lessons learned here are 1) shoot your shot. The worst they can say is “no”. If you never ask, the answer will certainly be no. 2) don’t be intimidated by FSBO. Agents certainly have a place and can be beneficial. But conducting this sale without agents got the sellers more in their pocket, and cost me less in the long term. I don’t think either of us could’ve hoped for a better outcome. +I get labor costs have to be a huge factor, but they can’t be producing all of the materials domestically- and that has to affect costs. I’m in Thailand right now (but the same is true for Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia etc), and like my huge dinner just cost me 150 baht. That’s like $4.38 US at current exchange, (and I’m in a tourist trap so it’s extra pricey). My soda cost 20 baht- the can was made of aluminum they don’t have, they don’t have petroleum to produce the plastic in my water bottle that cost 10 baht. Bangkok is a major urban center with huge skyscrapers made from steel and concrete, yet I can stay in fancy digs for like $25 US… I just don’t understand how they can afford to be so so cheap. Can y’all help explain? Like how the fuck can everybody afford a modern cellphone, computers etc- when top 10% earners are only pulling in like 17-20k US per annum… + +Edit: and some of the stuff like say farm equipment, cars, can only get so cheap regardless if it were purchased from China… so why is it all so inexpensive- how can I take a flight for 30 dollars across a country? Jet fuel doesn’t come at a discount, nor do 747s, ya know? + + +Edit 2: Thank you so all much for your answers, I get purchasing parity- U/Classic_Refuse_1578 stated much more clearly what I’m after though, how can products that rely on international trade be so inexpensive (given purchasing parity) Like, surveying my hotel room- the air conditioner is made by Mitsubishi, the fridge is Toshiba (I had no idea they made those products, but anyway) those- were likely imported from Japan, the TV is a TCL (which is Chinese) as are the beach chairs out front. The lightbulbs, Smoke detector and lock are also likely from China. Setting aside labor, the “materials” are probably comparable to a hotel in the west, so how can they be turning a profit charging me so little given that? Let alone entering to the business to begin with given the costs to entry, with such a smaller currency power? Or my plane example- I looked up the cost of jet fuel in a jumbo jet, and that’s about $40 a mile (and the plane itself is in the hundreds of millions) how are their margins positive, when they only charged me $30 to fly 415 miles from Bangkok to Phuket? There weren’t 415 people on my plane... and that isn’t even addressing labor... Or cab drivers? A second hand Chinese car goes for 63,000 yuan- that’s about $9500 US, which means it equal to about 1/2 the yearly income of a top 10% earner in Thailand. That’s be like if cabbies in the US were all driving $60,000 dollar cars... how is that driver turning a profit with a $9500 dollar car, not even counting petrol (which is far more expensive here!) given he’s charging much lower rates than even an off hour Uber in the west- Does it all really boil down to cost of labor evening it out? +I recently found out my 74yo single mother is almost broke, and spent all her retirement. AND has been recently diagnosed with early stage dementia. I know very little about investing and I need to do something with the money she has left to make it last as long as I can. I have to be able to withdraw occasionally for bills, but like everyone else I need to make money quickly. How screwed am I? +Hey everyone, + +So first of all I want to apologize about my reaction earlier. + +Writing dailies every day isn't an easy thing, I usually get up at 6 am my time, research write etc, then post answer questions etc, then have dinner research more check facts and stay online till midnight trying to moderate the sub and help out wherever I can, and it seems I've bitten off more than I can chew in that regard as I've been doing that for months now. + +Today I wrote something that I had on my mind for the past few days, as I knew it was an unpopular opinion but it needed to be said, even though I knew it had to be said I was expecting some backlash and has cost me more sleep then I wish to admit. but when everyone started to dogpile I lost it. I will need to grow some thicker skin in that regard. +I reacted badly, I forgot that we have people in here who are deliberately trying to do threadsplitting as we have learned before. + +Now I have been lucky enough to have a great support team around me, my fellow mods, the guys on discord, the people who reached out, everyone. + +&#x200B; + +I never told anyone what they need to do or how to do it, I never said you have to follow a certain exit strategy, this is all personal and you should look into what is best for you. + + +Again if you think that I am a shill, or bought off you have missed the point of the entire post, I try to help that's what I've always tried, and I now know I can't please everyone nor is that my goal. + +I have thought about the dailies and being a moderator, I will continue to do both. not just because I feel I'd let people down but it also feels bad, like I'm backing down from a fight and that's not me. + +so if you guys can excuse me I'll go eat my crayola sandwich and start helping again. + +https://preview.redd.it/wv7p73beqcu61.jpg?width=4032&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b91f05b9978bfcc61712825a6db6712178054364 + +cya guys tomorrow +33y/o married with 2 kids. $125k combined income. Met with a fee-only financial planner who said he charges $165 per month for comprehensive planning… wondering if this is a reasonable fee? He also said he could manage assets for 0.75% in addition but that is not a condition of working with him. + +Does this sound like a fair fee? He is a CFP and ChFC, has 12 years of experience and said he focuses on “young professionals” with young children. +One of our Quality Contributors, /u/handsomeboh, here works at a Hedge Fund. + +WallStreetBets and GameStop have put Hedge Funds in the public eye recently, especially on Reddit. So, ask your questions about them here. + +Handsomeboh provides the following bio: + + "I'm an Analyst in one of the largest and most famous Hedge Funds in the world + (not going to reveal which one or where because I don't want to get doxxed). + I graduated with a BA in History & Economics, then worked 1.5 years in M&A at + an investment bank, before I moved over to the hedge fund. + + I'm one of the guys who pores through reports and filings, trying to figure out + whether we should have long or short positions (or maybe something more + creative involving options) in different companies. Ask me anything - I won't + respond to any obvious trolls, but I'll try my best to be as objective as possible." +Let's not forget who the real culprits were: Wall Street and Big Banks. + +[https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535](https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535) +I originally was quoted close to $700 for the annual policy and around $100 per service call. They are very high pressure! If you're going to sign up (which you shouldn't) you should know that every sales person is authorized to drop the price to $420 annual with a $65 service call fee (that's the price I needed up getting). Mind you I was quoted several various prices above that but the last sales man I dealt with seemed annoyed that I had another guy tell me he could do it for that price. + +I have tried to make 2 claims to date and both had been denied for spurious reasons. My refrigerator ice machine stopped producing ice and they said "that not a normal repair." What's a normal repair??? They also denied my hot water claim because they say they tried to call my contractor who supposedly never responded, so they simply denied the claim. My contractor never got a call. + +Even when I tried to cancel after both denial and get the money I initially paid, they made up excuses and said they couldn't do that for some nonsensical reasons, even though I was promised I could cancel at any time and get my money back. + +Buyer beware!!!! +So I have about $30,000 in one of my savings account. It's just sitting there. I have another account that I use as my spending/living money ($30,000 as well). + +I'm only making $2 a month off interest. I know nothing about investing. What are my options to invest my money to help it grow faster? Are CDs worth it? What's a good place to put $30,000 and have it grow? Thanks! +This is a trap a lot of people fall into (myself included): just because it's a "good deal" doesn't mean you "saved" money by buying it, it's still money that you spent! + +This might be obvious to most people but it's a good reminder that pops up on here occasionally and has stopped me from making some dumb purchases on more than one occasion. Hopefully it helps someone on this Prime Day. +Here you can find the publication: [BaFin - Aktuelles - GameStop](https://www.bafin.de/SharedDocs/Veroeffentlichungen/DE/Meldung/2022/meldung_2022_08_02_gamestop.html;jsessionid=6718D126425080BD1AD3C6C26C55F6A3.1_cid502) + +and on Twitter: [Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht auf Twitter: „Aus aktuellem Anlass informiert die BaFin in diesem Thread über Aktien der #Gamestop Corp. $GME #GME (1/5) https://t.co/GULpT70mbG“ / Twitter](https://twitter.com/BaFin_Bund/status/1554435590824902658?t=f1u77-Vf1nr-YmFuo3KVaQ&s=19) + +&#x200B; + +Translation: + +"Due to current occasion BaFin informs in this thread about shares of #Gamestop Corp. $GME + +GameStop Corp. resolved a stock split in the form of a stock dividend at the beginning of July. BaFin has - also due to some indications from investors - **instructed the custodian banks to ensure the deposit of the new shares.** + +**Technically, however, the capital measure has so far been treated by the relevant data providers as a stock split and not as a stock dividend**. On July 29, 2022, however, individual data providers had changed the type of corporate action to a stock dividend, but reversed this on August 1, 2022. For individual custodian banks, this may require a purely technical recalculation, but this should be implemented within a few days. The holdings of old and new shares already held in custody by these banks will not be affected by this recalculation." + +&#x200B; + +We Germans are loud and it seems to have an effect! Bafin has closed pornhub and acted surprisingly quickly! +Inevitably, there will be a smear campaign led by certain organizations and media members against retail traders who are getting in on $GME. One argument that will be made is that it's not fair that we made so much money by recognizing that a group of hedge funds and institutions were in over their heads. It hurts the market and we should feel bad for exploiting them. + +The total market cap of $GME is around $12B as I'm writing this. **The total market cap of Wall Street is around $50T.** That means we've currently displaced about .025% of the total value of the US stock market. I will type that out to reiterate: we (retail traders) have displaced approximately one quarter of one tenth of one percent of the total market cap. To claim that we are doing anything which is tremendously harmful to the whole market is absolutely pants-on-fire lies. Is this going to change some elements of the market moving into the future? Almost certainly. But even if this stock goes to $1000 per share, we are still only talking about less than one tenth of one percent of the total market cap that's out there. + +If you're looking at your RH balance right now and thinking "wow, that's a lot of money, am I doing something wrong? Illegal, even?" the answer is **ABSOLUTELY NOT.** What you are beginning to notice is that the wealth gap in this country is absolutely massive. Thousands upon thousands of people could make year changing or life changing money out of this squeeze and it'll hardly be a blip on Wall Street's radar. Greed is absolutely out of control at the top and this funny little news story is tangible proof of that. Do not let them gaslight you into thinking that it's wrong for you to get a slightly larger sliver of the pie. + +Good luck to everyone playing this. I've got 100 shares at a cost basis of $103.95. I might not make millions, but I might be able to make a dent in my student loans, or pay off my car, or something that makes me just a little more hopeful that I'll be able to live some sort of "American Dream" before I'm old and wrinkled. + +edit: and in the event that you're literally brand new to trading (we're getting a lot of new people here), I would highly encourage you to read up on investment basics (there are literally millions of resources on this) and do some research into $GME and why it's moving the way it is. I would not recommend taking a position on any stock if you can't articulate your own reason as to why you're invested in it. +Identity Management: Users have a one-time password for the services. Only one password will be used to access the platform but for each service used, there will always be a new password. If the user needs the passwords, they can access them on or off-chain. + +Recurring payments: Users can set recurring payments in regards to peer-to-peer, consumer-to-business and business-to-business. An example is setting the platform to pay $10 to Netflix each month. + +A secure wallet: Users will be able to store both crypto and fiat currency in their hot wallet. The hot wallet will be used for subscription payments. They will also have a cold wallet to store funds and this will also hold their private key. + +Exchange transactions: Users will be able to buy, purchase and store crypto at the best rates in the market. + +Billing adjustments: This allows for the modification of bill payments. + +Low Seller Fees: Monarch will only be charging merchants 2% on their received payments. They are planning to decrease this cost when the network increases so as to remain competitive. + + +https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=47281 + +>The other day on Twitter, I came across a thread where the topic was the difference between aggregating point-in-time experiences vs aggregating the same experiences over a period of time. That sounds like something exotic but it's actually a very simple idea and every investor should understand it. + +>The original tweet asked if you were offered an investment that had a 50 percent chance of returning 0.6x (40% loss) and a 50 percent chance of returning 1.5x (50%) gain, should you take it? The answer would appear to be an obvious yes because (0.5 \* 0.6) + (0.5 \* 1.5) = 1.05. You can, on average, expect a 5 percent gain so why not? + +>However, the plot of this story is thicker than that, because if you were to repeatedly do this, you would eventually go bankrupt. That's right, two options that average out to 1.05, if taken repeatedly, would cause you to lose money, and continue to lose it. + +>For all but the most mathematically challenged, the reason should be evident. The above equation executes both the arms of the experiment simultaneously. However, if you first lose 40 percent, and then gain 50 percent, you are left with a 10 percent loss. Obviously, the same thing happens when the gain comes first and the loss come later. So when averaged, this gets you 1.05x, but when done sequentially, it's 0.9x. + +>At one level, this is a simple trick of maths, worth no more than a witty tweet. You could say that all this signifies is that to compensate for a 0.6x loss, you need a 1.667x gain and that's it. However, there's a point here which in real life is the cause of a lot of losses for investors. As your loss increases, the gain needed to compensate for it goes up exponentially. If, instead of 0.6x, you got 0.5x, then the 1.67x shoots up to 2. At 0.4x, it has shot up to 2.5x. At 0.1x (something that happens to lots of stocks), you'll need 10x to compensate! + +>The moral of the story is that it's very hard to make up for losses, and it gets disproportionately harder even with modestly larger losses. Averages are fine for writing articles and for looking at a large mass of investments. However, the average (or any other kind of aggregate) may not reflect the experience of the individuals that make that set of investments. +It seems to me that one of wealth's hidden powers is the quiet avoidance of conflict. + +Example: City wants to use eminent domain to put in a new road. The city can either go after the property of 20 poor families, or three very rich ones. In fact, the road would work better going through the property of the three rich families, but the city chooses the 20 poor family's properties to avoid a significant legal delay. + +This cost the rich families exactly zero to avoid this conflict, and there are many more examples of the rich facing less consequences/confrontations just by being rich. The mere threat of what a rich person can do can be enough for them to avoid a confrontation. + +Has this economic feature of wealth been articulated or studied? +Just as the header says; Best Canadian dividend stocks to hold forever? + +I have a few I have done some dd on a few I like, but I would love to hear what some fellow investors are a fan of and why. + +Thanks for any feedback and enjoy the rest of your Sunday y’all ! +These ETFs have the highest returns over the past 5 days, 4 weeks and 13 weeks. + +These ETFs could boost your portfolio returns outside of your CORE investments. Remember the stock market adage of "past performance doesn't predict future returns". **Will these ETFs come back down to earth?** *There are 5 EFTs on the list with greater than 80% returns over 13 weeks, THCX, YOLO, MJ, BLOK, PRNT.* + +**TOP 10 Rocket Ship ETFs.** + +***Listed into 5 categories.*** + +***The 4 ARK fund ETFs.*** + +1. **ARKQ**\- Autonomous Technology & Robotics - 56% over 13 weeks, 128% over 1 year +2. **ARKW**\-ARK Next Generation Internet- 52% over 13 week, 155% over 1 year +3. **IZRL**\-ARK Israel innovative Tech- 44% over 13 weeks. +4. **PRNT**\-3D printing, 17% over 4 days, 28% over 4 weeks, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***The 3 Cannabis ETFs*** + +1. **YOLO** \- 26% over 5 days, 32% over 4 weeks, **96% over 13 weeks.** +2. **THCX**\- 32% over 5 days, 41% over 4 weeks, **100% over 13 weeks.** +3. **MJ-** 32% over 5 days, 45% over 4 weeks, **84% over 13 weeks** + +*Update Edit here,* ***2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!,*** *Now we have a ETF Top 12 HOT list.* + +4. **POTX**\- 44% last 5 days, **144% in 13 weeks.** + +5. **MSOS** \-6% last 5days, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***Blockchain bitcoin ETF*** + +* **BLOK-** 24% over 5 days, **83% over 13 weeks,** 128% over 1 year. + +***BioTech ETF*** + +* **XBI-** 17% over 4 weeks, 44% over 13 weeks, 87% over 1 year. + +***EFT copycat of the ARK idea of innovated disrupt technologies.*** + +* **KOMP** \-*15% over 4 weeks, 51% over 13 weeks, 79% over 1 year* + +*EDIT, 2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!* + +*Enjoy, good luck investing!* +Luminos mining protocol just got listed few days ago! +the project is very promising and has a very clear road map ahead. + +It has a very warm community with strong management and development team. +I am one of the holders and i am here to share why i invested in this project. + +First of all, technically wise, they have locked their LP, and 30% of their tokens are burnt. + +founder is keeping as little as 1% share of the token, the rest are all for staking rewards. + +Majority of the token holders are staking their token. + +In LUMI farm , you can also stake your lumi to farm other upcoming project that went on initial farm offering with LUMI. + +LUMI also has its own native launch pad , and the team of developers in LUMI will do the vetting and background check on project founder to ensure project is safe for community to invest. + +In LUMI project, they are always trying to bring in new utility that connects the crypto world to offline businesses. +Their partners are all industrial giants in different field and with decades of experience. + +Team wise, LUMI has one of the most friendly admin and support. +The lead developer is also a very down to earth person who always communicate with community about his vision and plans. +He always execute things that he has promised the community and is very genuine and real. + +In terms of the company, LUMI is by two of the reputable companies, one is Geneva Capital Singapore, a corporate financing company specialized in helping companies to go on IPO - NASDAQ and more. +Luminos Graha Group, a nickel mining company in indoneisa who has collaboration with central sulawesi governor and conducts profitable nickel mining business to feed global demand in Nickel especially during this time where Nickel is the key materia needed to make car batteries for electric car companies such as Tesla. + +The prospect of the business is great and the team is good. +This is what made me invested into this amazing project. +And most importantly the community is warm and fun. + +www.luminosmining.com + +https://t.me/luminosmining + +U can buy LUMI at + +https://pancakeswap.finance/swap?outputCurrency=0x37c9ab94818c995569fd6f23feccec54bce900e0 +The current market cap is below $220 million, and they are the leader in the industry. + +Stock has gone up over 40% in the last two weeks. + +They continue to do well and surpass expectations in their live tests. + +Their debt has been steadily shrinking over the last year, and their profits are set to boom in 2021. + +Over the last year, this stock has had a steady rise with a recent boom, however, it definitely isn't too late! + +They have plans to integrate A.I into their tech, and they have potential deals coming up with mining companies in northern Ontario. + +However, the real reason I recommend this is because all it takes is one contract to send this stock soaring, and they are still very early in production so they have yet to accept a major contract. +> What is the biggest wealth destroyer when investing? Averaging down or buying more of an asset, be it stock or crypto, as the price keeps going down and hoping that the price bounces to recover losses or make profits faster. Common behaviour among retail investors. +> +>While it is tempting to average down, the odds of this strategy working are significantly low in the long run. All it takes is one large move on the other side for things to go wrong. The right way, for most people, is to not have concentrated positions. +> +>Saying this because of pings from friends asking if they should buy more Bitcoin to average the price, by exiting other assets. I have zero knowledge or exposure to Crypto, but the rules for investing are the same: Reduce % exposure if the risk is high, & don't Average down. 3/3 + +[https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201](https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201) + +I believe that, in the long term investment, if I know that a company is fundamentally great and as long as the reason behind my belief in company holds good, it is better to acquire more shares in the fall. + +I know that main context of his tweet is cryptocurrency, which is highly fluctuating. But, does his theory apply to stock market too? +Did everyone forget what happened in Thursday? That was a calculated effort to bring down our position. FUCK OFF BILLIONAIRS, well still take you fucking money; who do you think will fund our food stamps? + +We didn’t “lose” because we made a bad call, we “lost” because we made the RIGHT call and this disturbed some folks at the top. + +I was reading 2 articles in Wall Street journal and it made my blood boil- first article was saying “random penny stock went up 30% with no news or announcement”- the people that are paid to predict and report and are the expert at stock market are saying this shit. The second article right after made me want to fuck the writers wife: “GME and AMC, Reddit favorite stocks, plunged after apparent loss in interest from retail investors” LOSS IN INTEREST? MOTHERFUCKER WE CAN ONLY BUY 5 FUCKING SHARES EACH. + +WE LIKE THE STOCK. THOSE FUCKS JUST DON’T LET US BUY IT. How is GameStop and AMC and BB not already suing robinhood? Is any stock expert really gonna act like had they not restricted in Thursday, it would have went down that much? + +What the fuck is this gaslighting? That last week didn’t happen? Why are every news channel acting like they called GME or BB or AMC falling like it happened organically and not deliberately by everyone involved? + +Is GME worth 400$? FUCK NO. But since when was the stock market about actual worth? Stocks have become fiat currency in themself, doesn’t matter than company quarterly earnings, or its news, if people buy it, it goes up. When you restrict that- it goes down. + +We were up against billions of fund, trading platforms that we do not own or have a say in, our weapons, controlled by the enemy. Those fucks in TV acting like they actually called GME falling like this or acting like this is perfectly normal are trying to gaslight us about what happened in Thursday. + +FUCK THEM. We still got GME to go up and caused international fevor- we made the right call, we had the right stock, we had the right people, our enemies just had control of the only weapon we could use. +In November of 2020 I closed on a duplex for 305,000 using a VA loan. Total payment was $1680 and I budgeted for $750 a month for repairs, capex, maintenance, etc. One side was completely renovated, while the other needed some work. I chose to rent out the renovated unit and fix the other unit up as I lived in it. I had about 30k saved up for the renovations and I came in right on budget for a kitchen update that turned out great. I ended up renting out the other side to a great couple for $1500 a month. + +&#x200B; + +This seemed like easy money besides the occasional maintenance call and I was doing very well financially by saving about $25,000 a year towards retirement, and a few hundred a month extra towards the next house, fully funded emergency fund, and stashing a little into a brokerage as well. + +&#x200B; + +In January of 2022 I took on a new job making 40% more and thought I was ready to take on the next house with only a small amount of savings outside of the emergency fund ($15,000). + +&#x200B; + +I found a house down the street from my current house that had been on Zillow for several months whereas most houses sell within days. It definitely needed some work. Listing price was $240k, I offered $170K and they told me to pound sand. Reached out a few weeks later and offered $190K and they countered at $215. We eventually settled at $200K. + +&#x200B; + +I used a VA loan again, and the plan was (still is) to make this my house for the next five or so years. The house needed a lot of work so using some of the quotes I had from the renovations on the duplex, I crunched the numbers and came up to about with about a $60k budget for updating the kitchen, adding a bathroom, updating the electrical, and adding AC. Rough timeline I gave myself was two months. + +&#x200B; + +During closing I called the contractor who I had used in the past to come out and give a quote. He came out and said he'd be in touch, and I ended up closing on a house without an estimate in hand. This contractor ended up ghosting me and I had to start looking for a new one after I had already closed. I ended up getting one quote from a guy who said he could start relatively soon. The quote was way over budget, but I had about $15k worth of stocks in a brokerage I convinced myself into selling. Mind you, I had already taken out a personal loan of $35K @ 5% and opened up two interest free credit cards to pay for the renovations. + +&#x200B; + +I tore out all of the lathe and plaster in the entire house myself to save money and the contractor began working on the house about a month after closing. Timelines and promises were made and I fully expected to be in the house by the end of March. In its current state, the framing, insulation, AC, plumbing & electrical rough ins are complete, but still needs drywall, paint, flooring, cabinets/countertops. + +&#x200B; + +Total budget for this house was $60k and I'm currently $112k in. Two change orders wiped out my emergency fund. + +&#x200B; + +To make matters worse, I listed my side of the duplex to be rented @ $1650 starting May 1 and my house will not be livable by then. So at the ripe age of 31, I get to move back in with my parents. + +&#x200B; + +In a span of four months, I have completely obliterated my emergency fund, taken on $65k of credit card/personal loans, put myself in a paycheck to paycheck situation paying off the debt, stopped all retirement savings, and have essentially made myself homeless. + +&#x200B; + +I feel like a complete failure and am in therapy for the depression. I am so angry with myself. The light at the end of the tunnel is that I will have a beautiful home in an area I really enjoy, and If I decide to rent the house out, I could likely cash flow $700 a month. + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: don’t be an idiot and buy a house with unrealistic timelines and a lack of cash. +I've been following the news surrounding Evergrande. Some analyst say that the company going down could have catastrophic outcomes across China and the rest of the world. They've equated to Lehman brothers in 2008 (which I don't understand). + +How is it that the bankruptcy of a single company could have those far reaching effects across an economy as large as China, US or the world? +I was reading Yuval Noah Harari's book *Sapiens*, and on page 136, he says, "...it's a proven fact that most rich people are rich for the simple reason that they were born into a rich family, while most poor people will remain poor throughout their lives simply because they were born into a poor family." There is no specific citation for this in the book, and it caught my eye because I had read that Thomas J. Stanley's book, *The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy,* said that [only 20% of millionaires inherited their riches.](https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0810/7-millionaire-myths.aspx) + +I'm guessing that perhaps Harari is going off the Georgetown study that said [to succeed in America, it’s better to be born rich than smart](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/study-to-succeed-in-america-its-better-to-be-born-rich-than-smart.html) or talented? + +Would you say Harari's quote is true? And is it inconsistent with Stanley's contention? +Posting this on request of OP who has started a finance in India newsletter and isn't able to post here because of lack of karma. Original link - [https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money) + +If you’re a startup looking to raise money, the regular way to go about it would be to find new investors, tell them about how cool your startup is, share some numbers that show how much time people are spending on your app or whatever. If the investors are happy, they’ll commit some money. + +Next, you go to your old investors, those that gave you money when you were younger. You tell them about how you’ve just secured funding from new investors[1](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money#footnote-1) and also ask them to chip in a bit for your round. + +The purpose of going to the *new* investors was to actually get the money you need. They are the ones that “lead” the funding round. The reason you go to your *old* investors is because the new investors are usually happy and feel safe if the old investors participate again. What you (and the new investors) need isn’t their money but their vote of confidence. The old investors are saying to the new investors “we’ve been with this kiddo long enough to trust him, look here’s some more money”. + +What happens if you’re a startup and the market that you’re in is in total disarray, your revenue flat, your losses up 14X, your auditors have threatened to resign, and your general reputation is just bad.. but you also need to raise some money? + +If you go to new investors, they’ll probably ask you uncomfortable questions about your financials and whatever else in the news. Maybe ask for a discount in your company valuation. So you just go to your existing investors instead. + +From [Moneycontrol last week](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/startup/byjus-raises-250-million-from-existing-investors-in-a-fresh-round-led-by-qia-9341981.html): + +>**Edtech unicorn Byju's has raised $250 million in a new funding round from existing investors including Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) at a $22 billion valuation.**  This comes a week after the company announced that it would be laying off more than 2,500 people. +> +>**New investors offered the company a valuation of $11-12 billion after its results were released last month**, but Byju's did not raise money at that valuation, a person directly familiar with Byju's fundraising plans told Moneycontrol. +> +>Over the past 12 months, secondary sales of Byju's shares have happened at a valuation between $16 and $17 billion, while all primary fundraises have happened at a valuation of $22 billion since March of this year, according to the person cited above. A little more than $250 million was raised in primary funding during this round, the person added. + +Byju’s needed some cash. New investors wanted a 50% discount. So Byju’s preferred going to existing investors and raising $250m from them instead. + +If you’re an investor in a company and the founder comes to you asking for more money, your general happiness level depends on three things: + +1. The obvious: your investee[2](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money#footnote-2) company’s growth numbers and financial health +2. Market enthusiasm in the specific space the company operates in +3. Maybe the most important in the early-stage investing world—if the founders have managed to get other investors on board[3](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money#footnote-3) + +If you’re a Byju’s investor, you know that (2) isn’t on your side. Enthusiasm to invest in tech and *especially* edtech is down. 2 years ago when students replaced school with screens, venture capitalists figured that this was the future. Once schools started, students went back. So did investor sentiment in edtech. You also know that Byju’s [isn’t in the best of financial health](https://entrackr.com/2022/10/decoding-byjus-fy21-numbers-past-imperfect-future-tense/). Revenue is flat, expenses are up, etc, etc. So (1) isn’t on your side either. + +Now imagine when the founder tells you that they couldn’t really find a new investor without giving them a massive discount. You’re going to be quite unhappy. + +Startup investing has a large social proof element to it. You might think that finance is all about numbers and statistics and spreadsheets, but when you’re making multi-billion dollar bets on companies just a few years old, there aren’t always a lot of numbers to analyse and outside validation holds a lot of value. No one wants to be the sucker holding the bag at the end (not alone, at least). + +You’re now faced with a choice: do you fund this company and help it survive—or do you refuse and look at while it slowly dies? If the company dies, you lose your entire investment. It’s a bit of a no-brainer to just put in some more cash into this company. To date, there is $5 billion (more than ₹40,000 crores) riding on Byju’s. You don’t want 5% of that to be the reason it dies! + +But there is *no way in hell* you wouldn’t insist on a discount. + +When news outlets reported last week that Byju’s raised $250 million they cited an anonymous source to say that it was [at the same $22 billion valuation](https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/17/indian-edtech-giant-byjus-raises-250-million-in-fresh-funding/#:~:text=The%20new%20funding%20valued%20the%20Bengaluru%2Dheadquartered%20startup%20at%20%2422%20billion%2C%20the%20same%20figure%20at%20which%20it%20raised%20a%20financing%20round%20in%20March%20this%20year%2C%C2%A0a%20person%20familiar%20with%20the%20matter%20said.) as their last funding round. + +But the company itself hasn’t officially said anything. Normally companies that raise money love telling the media about their latest valuation. There is an innate joy in likening your company to fantastical beasts. But not so much Byju’s this time[4](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money#footnote-4). Who loves telling others that your company is running a fire sale on itself? +Is it realistic to be able to make a living with an 600k account? + +If i assume a monthly options return of 1,25% (15% a year) and a tax of 26% (German tax law) it should net me 5,550 a month, 66,600 year after taxes. Lets assume i keep doing a chill part time job just to cover health care and have a little income of 1k(net) a month/ 12k a year. That would bump me to 78,600$ after taxes. + +Is the 1,25% monthly return realistic with a mix of SPY,QQQ and single stocks option selling approach? + +\#edit: I plan to live off no more than 3k a month, so i could save up 3,5k of the 6,5k expected overall income. Since im basically saving half, this means 6 months of hitting my 1,25% goal should give me enough income to make it 12 months. The target of 1,25% only has to be hit 6 out of 12 months. That also assumes i don't even touch margin to help me out + +\#edit: what i mean by 600k account is, 600k cash available right now, no margin used. + +edit: i already have put aside a security blanket of 30k that is not included in the 600k account, which would last me a year even without any income at all. +Alright guys, I've had a sleepless night but now I'm ready to get to work on tracking down the asshats who took my money. + +First, let me tell you that I consider myself to be safe with my money. I have two factor authorization set up on every account. I also have triggers to disable accounts if new IPs are used to log in. I also avoid phishing emails, always check the addresses emails come from, and don't click on attachments. But guess what, that wasn't enough. + +Here's what they did. + +1. They somehow spoofed my phone number and had it go to a different SIM card. My current sim card stopped working all of a sudden. +2. I spoke with my cell carrier and they said that there were no manual changes to my sim card with them, so I'm still not sure how this step was completed. +3. They logged into all of my emails \(they had all of my accounts queued up and ready to go\). Once they took over my phone they then put all of my email accounts into recovery mode and had them send codes to my phone for recovery. +4. They then quickly changed all of my email passwords. +5. Next, they logged into every exchange I use and did resets of the passwords or just logged in if they had the password using the 2FA since they now had my phone and emails. +6. They then proceeded to drain my main exchange account on Gemini. Luckily they couldn't get into Binance \(well done Binance\). Gemini did initially freeze my account when they discovered a new IP, but then they sent a freaking email with a link to immediately unfreeze it. No waiting period, nothing. So, it was a useless security step since they had access to my email. They then made two big transfers of my BTC and ETH out of my account. +7. Here is the ETH address they sent to: 0x25c6f8e1ffa1656e6d4546932Dc68b6889A8D769 +8. Here is the BTC address they sent to: 1CuhKC6f6YUqJnuDPT28vqiktVR7chE7nG +9. Since they logged into my email, I got the two IP addresses they were using to do all of this. +10. First IP address: 217.151.98.69 based out of London, UK +11. Second IP address: 68.235.48.108 based out of Chicago, US + +Now, by the time I made it to the cell phone store to get a new Sim Card \(I had a feeling something like this was happening\) everything had already been done. I couldn't stop it because I was immediately cut off from communication and it all went down in about 15 minutes. This was obviously a coordinated attack. + +So, let's see what we can do as a community to keep these scum bags from messing with anyone else. + +1. If those scum bags see this post, you can return the money and everything will be forgotten and I won't pursue this anymore. +2. If they don't return the money, I'll be going to the FBI, Interpol, and whoever else I need to with the information I have. We'll all be watching this money going forward, and no matter how many times they move it, we'll find out where it ends up and make it hell for them to try and spend it. If it makes it into an exchange, law enforcement can then subpoena the exchange for the information to make an arrest. Basically I'll do everything in my power to ensure that if these asshats try and use my money, the authorities will find out. +3. In 24 hours, if the funds haven't been returned, I'll be placing a MASSIVE bounty on the identification of these douchebags. And then every white knight, grey hat, and black hat individual out there will have a vested interest in bringing these guys to justice. + +Basically, I'm giving them 24 hours to make this right. If they don't, I'll do everything in my power to make sure they worry about every spending any of that money with the threat of a lengthy jail sentence hanging over their head. + +EDIT: Also, if folks could share this on the other crypto subs to give it as much visibility as possible. I don't have the karma to post on some of them. THANKS! +A little while ago the son of a family friend of mine had just accepted an offer to join a management consulting firm fresh out of college. He asked me, *“what’s the best way to position myself to make partner?”* + +I’ve spent almost the entirety of my career in the consulting industry in one capacity or another, and (having had few drinks that night) rather rudely replied *“those who make partner don’t ask these sorts of questions as an analyst”*. + +A couple days later I reached back out and apologized for the glib nature of my comment, which really was said with good intent but poor delivery. I tried to explain to him that the best way to get promoted in consulting is to put your head down and do good work. He seemed satisfied with the answer, but truth be told, I was not. I’ve been mulling over this concept lately in an attempt to find a way to better articulate my point, if not for future mentees than as my own form of career therapy. I thought I’d share my musings with the community for feedback and your own experiences. + +# Careers are step-functions rather than linear progressions + +**What I wish I said:** Your professional growth will come in spurts, and the best way to climb a mountain is not to stare at the peak but rather focus on getting over the next hill. I could tell you that directors that get invited into the partnership are the ones best able to expand upon or develop new service lines to generate revenue, but that wouldn’t mean anything to you right now. Rather, I should tell you that the analysts that get promoted to consultants have mastered the technical aspects of excel / PPT and are able to independently make progress on the tasks assigned to them. + +**Additional musings:** Setting aside the philosophical question of what it means to live a good life for a second, even if we are to focus purely on maximizing career returns, I would still say the majority of people I know (myself included!) spend too much time “thinking” and not enough time “doing”. As trite as it sounds, we now live in an era of constant distraction. The process of doing deep, focused, uninterrupted work has become almost anachronistic, but (in my humble opinion) the relative value of such work has never been higher. Do good work, and you will get rewarded. You don't get to choose when or by whom, but trust that it will happen in time. + +# You are worth (financially) what the market deems you are worth + +**What I wish I said:** Think of yourself as a product (because in professional services, that’s exactly what you are). You will be rewarded if you are able to consistently solve the problems your bosses and clients want you to solve. This does not mean you should not advocate for yourself (quite the opposite actually); it simply means you must create value to capture value. + +Recognize this may not always be 100% aligned with your personal values. Also recognize that part of being an adult is understanding how to navigate trade-offs. + +**Additional musings:** There comes a time in everyone’s career where we stop being judged by our perceived potential, and start being judged by our results. It’s almost impossible to pinpoint when this begins to happen, even in hindsight. But as important as it is to be cognizant and confident in your unique God-given potential, it is equally important to cultivate it and bring its fruits to society. I was too idealistic for my own good in my youth; I realize this goes very much against the grain of conventional wisdom, but I wish I spent less time early in my career thinking about what I wanted and more time thinking about what my bosses / clients wanted. Paradoxically, once I was able to provide value to my stakeholders, society rewarded me, and in turn I am now able to better cultivate what I personally value. + +# 10% luck, 20% skill, but most of it really is concentrated power of will + +**What I wish I said:** However the meta-skill that sits above focus and productivity is good judgement. This encompasses not only the ability to choose which projects and partners to attach yourself to, but also which battles to fight and which hills to die on (hint: very few of them). Invest in your mental health; your ability to keep your head while others around you are losing theirs will distinguish you not only in your career but in life. The consulting career is a marathon. To make it to the top, you will not only need to produce excellent work, but do so for over a sustained period of time. + +**Additional musings:** This idea probably deserves its own deep dive, but it probably is the most important point of this post. Again, even setting aside all the philosophical benefits, I find having a clear mind to be the most important tool (and most consistent trait) demonstrated by those I consider having had successful careers. In informal discussions with consulting / banking partners and corporate executives, rather than intelligence or work ethic, they overwhelmingly credit their success to being able to push through low points in their career better than their peers at the time. One of them brought up a poker analogy that has stuck with me to this day: “The mark of a true pro isn’t necessarily how much you win with a good hand, but rather how little you lose with a bad one”. + +Thanks for reading. +I love the car buying process. It's fun, I take my time, test drive cars, find what I like and try to find a good deal on a 2-4 year old car. + +Car salesmen are not the ones you need to fear. Many of them are great, and work long hard honest hours to push some cars. As my dad told me before he dropped me off to buy my first used car, "When they get you in the back room, that's when they're going to try to screw you." + +If you think that's a joke or an understatement, please accept the fact that it is neither. When you sit down in the chair in the finance office, you need to be as alert as a deer in hunting season. Here's how they tried to get me, and I hope I can help one person not get taken. + +-When I sat down, the finance manager had already opted in on my behalf for every single add-on available. I mean, all of them. They do this every time, and all they need is one final signature, not individually to keep them on. It had an extended warranty, Gap coverage, alarm system, electronics warranty, and a couple others I'll never remember. It was 10:30 at night when I finally got out of there and was exhausted. + +Two things to know: +1) You are not obligated to ANY of them, NO MATTER WHAT THEY SAY. When I had crappy credit, I was almost convinced when they told me the finance company REQUIRED Gap Insurance. Don't believe the nonsense. + +2)Apparently, after my experience last night, they are not required by any means to explain to you what you're buying. Unless the finance manager I used broke several laws, after an hour of him explaining "every detail" there was still an extended warranty for a whopping $3,000 that he barely even alluded to! When I finally said, "What's this warranty you keep saying is included?" I knew the car was under manufacturer's warranty for a short time still, I thought he was talking about that. Nope. I literally had to ask specifically, "What am I paying for that?" Without me asking that very specific question, he had no intention of mentioning the price. The car still had 13k miles on the warranty, and they wanted to sell me a new one... + +-You DO NOT have to buy the $1,000-$1,500 alarm system/insurance plan they will almost cry rather than remove. This was the longest part of the process as I waited twenty minutes while they fought me the entire way, using every trick in the book. Don't buy it, don't let them win. Finally, they left it on AND didn't charge me. + +**With all that being said. There are some that you can drastically change the price of and get a good value on something that matters. They offered a dent/scratch repair on the body and wheels for five years for $895. I spent over $1,000 over the last four years on my last car from my car being hit while parked at work, so I offered them $300 and they took it. It's something I know with no deductible I can get great value out of. + +What's difference? The difference between the number I walked in that room to and the one I left with was $150 a month... (Edit: Meaning, I left with $150 lower monthly payment after stripping everything to the bone) + +Agree or disagree with anyone of this, but if I can help one person not get taken, this twenty minutes was worth it. + +Good luck out there! + +-Pie + +EDIT: My first post with an upvote ever! Take the time to read through these comments, there are COUNTLESS great pieces of advice people are leaving! +Date: 6/22/2022 + +Time: 12 pm to 1:30 pm Eastern, and then the next 10-15 years if there are more questions or anything requires clarification. + +\[EDIT: need to run now (1:30) but feel free to add more questions, will return around 4:30 pm\] + +\[EDIT #2: let's try some more at 8 pm\] + +&#x200B; + +I'm Jason Abaluck, a professor of economics at Yale University at the School of Management. [Proof](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1539375742282260483). + +Most of [my work](https://faculty.som.yale.edu/jasonabaluck/) is in health economics, especially trying to fix the problem that people can't tell which doctors, hospitals and insurers will (inexpensively) make them healthy. + +A related research agenda seeks to relax the assumption that choices are well-informed and infer from choice data whether [information](https://spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com/faculty/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2022/03/A_Method_to_Estimate_Discrete_Choice_Models_that_is_Robust_to_Consumer_Search-1.pdf), [defaults](https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/136/3/1611/6169736?login=true), or other forms of "choice architecture" would lead to better choices. + +I was an [early advocate](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1243675540353101824) for masking and co-authored [the only randomized trial](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9069) evaluating the community-level impact of masking on Covid (of course, the benefits of masks fall as the Covid death rate falls due to vaccines, natural immunity, better treatment, and less deadly variants). + +Other potentially relevant items: + +* I just published an op-ed in the Washington Post calling for [mandatory gun liability insurance](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/17/gun-insurance-reform-uvalde-liability/). The economic rationale is that premiums would act like an individual-specific tax on gun ownership which is (roughly) proportional to the size of the externality generated. I did not invent this idea, but I think it is underappreciated. +* I think there is a missing field in philosophy/economics -- ["econometric epistemology"](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck/status/1330656185859584003) \-- which tries to figure out what is true by estimating the causal effect of knowledge on beliefs. Thinking about starting it with a large-scale panel survey. +* I several years arguing with [a belligerent 86 year-old man](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judea_Pearl) and his students about causal identification (a somewhat ironic result of my view that his work was underappreciated by economists). As a result, I believe I have the most highly-cited Twitter account in the [Journal of Economic Literature](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.20191597) ([non-paywall link](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07271.pdf)). +* I am not really the author of any books but 20 years ago I wrote a bunch of puns for [the most prurient SAT study guide](https://books.google.com/books/about/Up_Your_Score.html?id=pnW3d8NItk0C). + +\[EDIT: need to run now (1:30) but feel free to add more questions, will return around 4:30 pm\] + +\[EDIT #2: let's try some more at 8 pm\] + +**Edit**: Thanks for the questions. I'll try to check back again tomorrow to see if I've missed anything. You can follow [me](https://twitter.com/Jabaluck) on Twitter for more. +I've been a member of this subreddit for quite a while now. I think the member count was still 25-30k or something. In that time, I've noticed some changes in the post quality. + +Observation #1 + +Earlier, any personal related query used to be strictly confined to the pinned thread in the subreddit that gets updated every few days. Earlier, some of my personal posts were actually not published because a sentence in the post made it a personal query. But now, I see personal, very individual queries as standalone posts. The very same post is posted in thread as well, which feels like spray-and-pray kind of an approach. + +Due to so many individual advice posts, more general queries are getting lost in the crowd. + +&#x200B; + +Observation #2 + +The quality of questions - + +1. Some of the questions that are being asked here have such a factual singular answer, that it could be easily answered through quick internet search +2. Some questions can so mainstream beginner level that it can be answered through reading wiki (this is a grey area though... sometimes, these beginner level questions have certain nuance, but I'm referring run-of the-mill 'I'm X years old and an investment noob. How do I get started?') +3. Other questions are so close in context to already active questions, that they could have been avoided (and just added to available threads or comments) + +These recent evolution have, at least for me, resulted in me spending more time separating wheat from chaff. I just wanted to open a discussion to see if we can figure out a way to streamline and consolidate. + +I was an early adopter of Quora as well. The quality of material there was AMAZING back then and I contributed a lot. But, as the adoption grew, the quality of question degraded drastically and I left the platform. I suppose the S-curve of adoption and quality is true after all. + +I want to see this community grow, but it is difficult to engage when I'm spending too much time to search for meaningful, non-redundant conversations. + +If I'm the only one who thinks this way, please downvote and ignore. Otherwise, let's see if we find some ways to further streamline the subreddit! + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Based on some comments, it seems the interpretation is that I'm being critical of beginners' posts. That is not the case. + +Let me lay bare my thinking process. I'll have to introduce few concepts: power law, collision theory, and spillover effect + +&#x200B; + +* **Power law** is apparent everywhere when it comes to forums. Where people think the distribution is normal, it is actually exponential - + * How many 'experts' do you think we have in the subreddit? Just survey the frequent commenters and you'll get a picture. In this 101k member list, I would estimate it to be 50-100, and that might very well be higher + * The growth of this subreddit has been exponential recently. I'll assume the #expert joining among them would be very small + * Compare that with the number of beginners (and, hence, the number of posts) we will have on the subreddit + * You are already seeing the effect. Number of comments in the available threads are increasing. Many of them are same questions in different dressing. The 'expert' cannot answer the same question every time. So, there has to be a solution to that + * Add to this some low-effort and lazy questions. Adding noise to the overall thread + * With so many queries and so few of those who answers, you WILL see lower rate of replies +* I'm using **Collision Theory** in a loose sense + * Frankly, not all 'experts' are coming here with a single mind focus to help people out. They are also coming to learn more + * Now, if they have a time budget for both (learn and help), they WILL adhere to it, irrespective of amount of material on subreddit + * Now, they will engage in X capacity, whether there's 2X need or 100X need. Only few will be lucky + +But, if they have to work hard to search for 'learn' component from all the posts, they will no longer think it is worth the effort. This is a delayed and second order effect of increased number of posts. + +* **Spillover effect** of perception says that if signal/noise is decreasing and learning opportunities are going down for them, maybe they will look for greener pastures + +Everybody loses in long term due to all the noise and repetitions. + +Beginners will have to help 'experts' so that they can do the same. + +\*'expert' is in quotes because I'm using it in loose sense - Someone who has been on this subreddit for a while and learned through osmosis here and through her/his own research + I max out my 401k (19500) and Roth IRA (6,000) each year. My annual spending is approximately $36,000 per year. This leaves me with approximately $18-20k of excess cash. Currently, I just transfer all excess cash (18-20k annually) to a brokerage account and either top off my index funds or invest in individual stocks I like. Is this a good strategy, or are there any other investment vehicles I should consider instead of putting it all in an after tax brokerage account. I currently hold ~330k in after tax brokerage and am trying to be tax efficient. Thanks in advance + +** more curious to hear what you think of my budgeting of $36k a year, regardless of financially situation, but based on age with no dependents. ** +So good ole WSB has literally had over a million new subs in just today alone. That means a million more targets for us to sell to. But alas the problem with them is they don’t know how to chill the fuck out. + +Let’s keep this sub going and not turn it into a giant dick measuring contest. Basically that entire sub has become unusable now as it gets spammed into oblivion + +EDIT: now this post is even more relevant if it got shut down lol +Does anyone know how to make money as a handicapped teen I have one leg and am still waiting to get a new prosthetic I’ve been depressed and lazy for a while but finally came out of the pit hole does anyone know how to make money I have a single mother and 2 siblings and I need to help out financially in some way or imma failure of a man and a son.I live in Upstate Ny +Hey everyone! Great to be here and I'm looking forward to spending an hour chatting. I'll do my best to answer anything I'm able to - I've been working in markets for a long time now (17 years!) and have been pushing for regulatory reforms since 2012 when I testified before the Senate Banking Committee. We recently launched an effort to build a grassroots advocacy campaign at [we-the-investors.org](http://we-the-investors.org) and I'm excited for the opportunity to help retail advocate on its own behalf. +EDIT: apparently this wasn't clear, so I'm putting it at the top -- I'm intending to create a trust for my kids' education and personal development at least until age 30. I am not talking about making them eat cat food and taking the bus 3 hours to work at McDonald's. We are talking about whether they should inherit an 8-figure sum at age 30 or 35. + +&#x200B; + +There have been a lot of posts here about how to handle passing possible millions down to your kids. I think my partner and I have a reasonable and compatible idea of how we will raise our daughter to be financially responsible, but since I'm doing my will I'm struggling a lot with what to do should we both suddenly die or become incapacitated. + +&#x200B; + +I think there is some consensus on not giving your kids direct access to money before age 25. But even at age 25, 30, 35, or even 40, I wonder if $10MM falling out of the sky and landing on someone's head is a good thing. The thing is that I'm confident that if I'm alive, I can teach my kid good financial values, but if she grows up with two dead parents, do I feel confident she will end up with those values? + +&#x200B; + +I don't want my kid to struggle badly, I want her to get whatever education she wants and the money to pursue whatever personal goals she has, but should she really get 8-figures at any point in her life? + +&#x200B; + +On the other hand, if she turns 35, finds out her old man was once worth $10MM way back in 2020 but she only got like 500k of it (even though all her schooling, activities, personal development etc were taken care of), does that screw her up too? + +&#x200B; + +Btw, my kid is 3, so we're not exactly at the "teach her the value of a dollar" stage right now. + +&#x200B; + +What are you guys doing, leaving a reasonable amount, or leaving the whole fat stash behind? +People like Peter schiff argue the importance of sound money and austerity. Most economist appear to disagree with this view but always seem to offer a convoluted dodgy answer. + +For example, the last question in yesterdays press conference was a very pointed question that mr Powell swept under the rug. He was asked if the FED was worried that all this money printing would inflate an asset bubble and wether this could exacerbate ineqallity. + +So why does noone seem to really want to talk about this stuff? + +In the year 2050 we might be at 100 trillion, am I to understand that thats fine? What is mr Powell thinking but not saying? + +So please, can someone explain to me what everyone seems to know but doesnt want to talk about. + +I genuinly worry that the real answer is something along the lines of: "The US is the worlds superpower and the dollar is the worlds reserve currency and thus we can flood the world with dollars. If they dont want them we will shove them down their throats anyway" +Just as the title says. My knowledge of ETF and dividends is very limited, just getting into this. Since I have 150k cash handy, I would appreciate recommendations as to where invest this. Thanks. + +Forgot to add this in but I'm 26 for those who are asking. Goal is to set it up a 2nd income eventually leading the road to an early retirement. Current plan is to add 2k every month into the portfolio but potentially more in the future. +Title says it all. + +Tesla's earnings in the first quarter were $438 million. + +$101 million (23%) of that came from selling Bitcoin for profit. + +The other interesting part is that it would have been an earnings miss without the trading. + +Did one make the other happen? + +Considering the recent news about not allowing Bitcoin anymore, it's certainly a move worth mentioning. + +As highlighted by Scott Galloway: https://twitter.com/profgalloway/status/1393232146681286664 +Yes I’m poor, yes I’m borderline homeless and I see posts on this sub 24/7 talking about depression & suiciii. Just do it, food stamps will help about $50-70 a week which is very very useful for poor people, so if this doesn’t seem much to you move on. +EDIT: [Wiki now exists](/r/thetagang/wiki) and has more info not in this post. + +# Overview + +### What is this place? What is theta gang? + +[/r/thetagang](/r/thetagang) is a sub for traders who are interested in selling options. + +### An option? What's that? + +Options are derivative financial instruments, which means they derive their value from an underlying, such a stock or commodity. Options are a contract in which the buyer has the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying at an agreed upon price on or by a certain date. + +All options have an expiration date after which they stop trading. Because they eventually expire they are also wasting assets, which means they lose extrinsic value as time passes. This is where theta gang comes in. + +### Uh huh... I don't really understand anything you just said, but I'm curious, why would anyone want to trade options? + +There are two main reason why someone would want to trade options: hedging and speculation. + +Consider an investor who buys a stock but is worried about a price decline. They can purchase options (put contracts) to protect themselves if the stock's price were to fall. And if they think a stock is overvalued and want to short it, they can purchase options (call contracts) to protect them should the price rise. In both cases the investor is hedging their trade because they are trying to profit from the stock and not the options. + +The other reason is speculation. Options allow someone to make a directional bet on a stock without buying or selling the actual stock (the underlying). + +### Why would someone bother with trading options when they can just trade the underlying? + +Leverage. Equity option contracts are standardized and each contract (also called a "lot") is for 100 shares of the underlying. It's a way to have exposure to the underlying without needing the capital to buy or sell 100 shares for each contract. In other words a smaller amount of money controls a higher valued asset. + +Options allow a buyer to make amazing profits. If a trade goes incredibly well, they could see profits anywhere from 100% to 10,000% (a few are even lucky enough to get 100,000%). And despite being leveraged the most amount of money they can lose is what they paid to buy the options. This is known as the premium and is paid to the seller. + +The option buyer's losses are limited to the premium and their profits are potentially unlimited, whereas for the seller the losses are potentially unlimited and the profits are limited to the premium. + +### WHAT?!? Why on Earth would anyone sell options with a payout like that? Especially when you could become rich so easily? + +If only it were that simple. + +The reality is most options expire worthless. If you buy options not only do you have to get the directional bet right, but you have to get the timing right as well. + +If you buy a stock and it goes nowhere for a while and then suddenly takes off in price, you make money from this trade. Not necessarily for options. They eventually expire and if the stock soars after the option expires, tough luck. You get nothing and lose all your money. + +All of the incredible gains you see with options happen because the underlying made a huge move in a relatively short period. In other words, you have to take an immense amount of risk to make a boatload of money. It's far more likely that the options expire worthless and you lose everything. + +And if getting the direction and timing right wasn't hard enough, it gets even worse. Options are priced to lose. Recall that options are a wasting asset. An option slowly loses extrinsic value as time passes. This is referred to as theta decay. If the underlying doesn't move in price fast enough (in the right direction, of course) to offset the loss in theta, you lose money. + +This leads to an interesting outcome: an options buyer can be right and still lose money, and an options seller can be wrong and still make money. + +### WHAT?!?! How can someone be wrong in a trade and still make money? + +The value an option has can be split into two parts: intrinsic and extrinsic. + +Remember how options have an agreed upon price to trade the underlying at? That's called the strike price. As an example, if a call option has a strike of $10, and the stock is trading at $10.50, the option has $0.50 of intrinsic value. + +The extrinsic value is also known as the time value of an option. It's the risk premium the seller receives for taking on the risk of selling options. Using the same example as earlier, if the option is trading for $1.10, the extrinsic value is $0.60. + +The intrinsic and extrinsic value combined are the option's premium, and the seller receives this premium in full. So if at the date of the option's expiration the stock is trading at $10.70, the option is worth $0.70. The seller's $0.40 profit is the buyer's loss. And if the underlying is at $10 or less on expiration? It expires worthless and the buyer loses 100%. + +### This sounds too good to be true. If most options expire worthless why doesn't everyone sell options and get rich? + +If only it were that simple. + +It's true options are priced to lose and that most expire worthless. What is a wasting asset for the buyer is a wasting liability for the seller. However, it's still a liability and sometimes that liability can end up being a real loser. + +It's not just a matter of a win/loss ratio. The magnitude of the wins vs. losses must be considered. The most an option seller can make is the premium, but they can lose far more than that if the underlying moves against them. It's possible for a seller's loss to be multiples of the premium they received for selling an option. If an option seller is really unfortunate, they can experience a loss on a single trade that wipes out months of profits. + +There's no easy money to be made trading options. + +# The Greeks + +Let's pretend that I know what options are. How do the Greeks apply to option sellers? + +### Delta + +Delta has multiple meanings: + +1. How much the option's price changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. + +2. The option's equivalent of a position in the underlying (a directional bet). + +3. The probability the option expires in-the-money. + +Definition #2 is important to understand when making delta neutral bets (discussed later). These profit from a decrease in volatility along with collecting theta. It's possible to construct a trade where a movement in the underlying does not change the position's value (or by much). + +Definition #3 is an approximation. Many option sellers like to sell out-of-the-money options with a delta of 0.30, which means they have an approximately 30% chance of expiring ITM. + +### Gamma + +Delta is not a constant. An option's delta changes as the underlying's price changes. Gamma measures how much delta changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. Option buyers have positive gamma, whereas sellers have negative gamma. + +Long (positive) gamma works in favor of the buyer. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and profits accelerate. As the underlying moves further out-of-the-money, gamma decreases delta and losses decelerate. + +Short (negative) gamma works against the seller. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and losses accelerate. As the underlying moves further OTM, gamma decreases delta and profits decelerate. + +Gamma is bad news for sellers. Theta gang has always been at war with gamma gang. Gamma is also the reason that delta hedging is so difficult when it comes to being delta neutral. + +### Theta + +Beloved theta. The namesake of [/r/thetagang](/r/thetagang). It's why we're here all here and why you're reading this. + +Theta represents the time value of an option. It's the extrinsic value of an option, and as each day ticks away the time value decreases a little. That amount is determined by theta. Theta decay is nonlinear and accelerates as expiration approaches. + +The goal of an option seller is to profit from collecting theta. One could sell an option that's ITM and profit from the underlying moving OTM, but that's not a theta bet, that's a directional bet. ITM options also have less time value than at-the-money options. ATM options have the most time value and so the most theta to collect, but are at a greater risk of expiring ITM compared to OTM options. + +The more days to expiration an option has the slower the theta decay. 30-45 DTE is a very popular period to sell. Others prefer weeklies. + +### Vega + +Vega measures how much an option's price changes relative to a change in implied volatility. + +The IV of an option is the market's estimate of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. The higher the IV the greater the time value of an option, which means options with higher IVs are more expensive. + +Option buyers want to buy when volatility is low because options are cheaper. Sellers want to sell when volatility is high because options are more expensive. + +The best time to sell options is during the gut-wrenching periods when no one wants to sell because volatility is so high (such as the March 2020 crash). Options become extremely expensive and there are juicy premiums to collect. Look for large spikes in IV. + +### Vomma + +Vomma (or volga) is a much lesser known Greek. It measures how much an option's vega changes as the implied volatility changes. + +Out-of-the-money options have the most vomma. This detail will be discussed later in a horror story of option selling gone wrong. + +### Rho + +Rho measures how much an option's price changes as interest rate changes. + +No one cares about rho anymore thanks to interest rates being stuck at rock bottom for over a decade. + +# Volatility + +### What are some basic details about volatility that are important to know? + +Both option buyers and sellers care about volatility (at least they should). Buyers want to purchase when IV is low and sellers want to sell when IV is high. + +An option's IV in isolation does not actually tell you if IV is high or low. It must be compared to the historical IV for that option. Two popular methods are IV rank and IV percentile. + +For example, if options on XYZ have an IV of 35% and options on ABC have an IV of 45%, on the surface ABC has higher IV. But if XYZ has an IV rank of 75% and ABC only 40%, XYZ's IV is actually higher relative to its historical IV and may be better suited for selling. + +There are different ways of measuring volatility and it's important to not mix them up: + +* **Historical volatility:** This is how volatile the underlying actually was. It doesn't tell you anything about the future volatility of the underlying. This is also called realized volatility. + +* **Implied volatility:** This is the market's prediction of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. It could be greater than, less than, or about the same as the historical volatility. It's only an estimate and can easily be wrong. + +* **Historical implied volatility:** This is simply the IV of an option over time. When you're looking at historical data and overlay HV with HIV, you can see how right or wrong the market was estimating future volatility. + +* **Implied volatility rank**: IV rank is calculated over a period of 52 weeks. The formula is 100 * (current IV - 52 week low IV) / (52 week high IV - 52 week low IV). + +* **Implied volatility percentile:** This tells you the percentage of time HIV has been lower than current IV. The formula is # of days with lower IV than today / # of trading days in a year (252 is normally used). + +### What is volatility skew? + +To understand what volatility skew is we have to go back to the 1970s. + +You may have heard of a theoretical options pricing model called the Black-Scholes or Black-Scholes-Merton model. This model was published in 1973 and became very popular. It was widely adopted in the options market. + +The original Black-Scholes model predicts that the IV curve is flat among the various strike prices with the same expiration. It didn't matter if the strike price was OTM, ATM, or ITM, they all had the same IV. + +IV stayed this way until the stock market crash of 1987, where the DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single day. This single event changed the options market forever. The IV curve was no longer flat but instead demonstrated a volatility smile ([conceptual graph](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile)). Strike prices further from ATM started trading at higher IVs. + +The crash was a gut punch to investors that taught them extreme moves in markets were more common than you would expect, and options started being priced accordingly. But the volatility smile is not symmetrical, it's actually skewed. + +OTM puts have a higher IV than OTM calls. This is due to markets falling much faster than they rise (they take the escalator up and the elevator down). This causes more demand for OTM puts to protect long portfolio positions. Most investors are long the market, and some will sell covered calls which increases the supply for OTM calls. + +Note that this is true for equity markets. Commodity markets behave differently. Normally there is a floor in commodity prices (although for commodities with storage or delivery constraints, as we learned in April 2020 they can dip below zero) and IV is higher for OTM calls compared to puts, because commodities can suddenly spike in price due to supply side shocks. + +In equity markets IV is inversely correlated with price, that is, IV rises when prices fall (reverse or negative skew). This isn't necessarily true for commodities where rising prices can mean an increase in IV (forward or positive skew). + +# The story of James "Rogue Wave" Cordier of OptionSellers.com: A tragic lesson in how not to sell options + +James Cordier is a former money manager who has the dubious honor of not only losing all the money of his clients by selling options, but even leaving them with a debt because the losses were so staggering. + +James was a proponent of selling options and had even written a book about it. He had a now defunct website, OptionSellers.com, which targeted individuals with a high net worth. His strategy was simple: he was selling naked options on crude oil and natural gas. For years he made he made his clients plenty of money. Things were great. Until they weren't... and the results were catastrophic. His clients lost everything and even owed money to their broker, INTL FCStone. Where did James go so wrong? + +James was selling naked strangles on natural gas and crude oil. In November 2018, both markets moved against him, but the real losses came from his naked natgas calls. He sent an email with the subject line "Catastrophic Loss Event" to his clients on November 15th, dropping the bombshell that not only was all their money gone, but they may be facing a negative balance. + +If you look at a [chart of natgas](https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1) you can see why his accounts blew up. Natgas experienced a huge spike in November and his broker liquidated their positions at an absolutely massive loss. + +What mistakes did he make and what can we learn from them? + +**1. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller** + +Part of his strategy involved selling deep OTM naked calls on natgas (call leg of short strangles). Deep OTM options typically don't sell for very much, so in order to collect more money you sell a bunch of them to make it worth the trade. + +This is a terrible idea and no one should ever sell a bunch of deep OTM naked options. It can work great for years, until one day it blows up your account. In order to collect a decent premium you have to overleverage yourself. This is extremely risky and you will eventually experience a major loss one day. The odds are not in your favor. + +The underlying does not even need to cross the strike price for you to lose money. The underlying's price simply needs to move significantly closer to the strike price and you'll be deep in the red. This is made even worse if volatility spikes, which increases the option's price and your losses (discussed in detail in the next point). + +Notice what happened the following months: natgas prices crashed back to what they were before the spike. Had James not overleveraged his positions, he could've ridden the losses out to a profit. In fact, all those options probably would've expired worthless. + +There is another reason not to sell deep OTM naked options. Imagine you're a speculator with a small account (e.g., [/r/wallstreetbets](/r/wallstreetbets)). They want to trade but they can't afford to buy ATM or slightly OTM options, so what do they do? Buy deep OTM options, bidding the price up. When a market moves big and the small-time speculators want to trade it, all they can afford are the cheap options, which are deep OTM. This is bad news when you're short them. + +**2. Not understanding the relationship between price and volatility** + +Remember how for commodities volatility can be positively correlated with price? Natgas is one of them, and when the price spiked so did volatility. James did not understand the consequences of this. + +When you are short options, you have negative vega. As the price spiked so did volatility, and the short vega position piled up his losses in addition to being short delta. + +But vega is not a constant. We finally get to discuss vomma now. Vomma measures how much an option's vega changes as IV changes. In other words, as IV increases, so does vega thanks to vomma. When you're short vega and vomma, this is bad news. + +Remember which options have the highest vomma? That's right, OTM. So as IV increased, not only did his losses increase due to rising IV, but vega itself started increasing thanks to vomma, further accelerating his losses. + +He got wrecked four different ways: being on the wrong side of delta, gamma adding to delta, being on the wrong side of vega, and vomma adding to vega. + +**3. A total absence of risk management** + +Risk management is essential when it comes to trading, and selling options is no exception. Selling naked options can expose you to extreme risks, and to ignore it is simply reckless. It's more important to avoid a huge loss than to make a huge profit, because all it takes is one big loss on a trade to make recovering from it impossible, ending your career in theta gang. + +Tail risk is a very real concern in trading, and those "rare" events actually happen more frequently than traders expect (fat tails). Look at a price chart of natgas over the past twenty years. You can see random spikes sprinkled throughout the chart. James never stopped to think, what would happen to the value of my positions if natgas were to suddenly spike in price, which I know has happened in the past, and will happen again someday? How could I protect myself against this scenario? + +It's pretty obvious that if a one-day or even few weeks move manages to blow up your account and completely undo years of profits, you have zero risk management in place. This stems from not understanding how the natgas market works, and trading it with no regard to risk. + +Selling naked calls on natgas is a terrible strategy because natgas can have sudden price spikes, and IV will spike with it. A much better strategy would've been selling a call backspread. You sell an ATM or OTM call, and you buy two or more calls that are further OTM. That way if natgas did spike your losses are limited, and you might even turn a profit on the spike. + +Spend the time necessary to learn about the underlying. And don't neglect risk management. If you're going to sell options, you absolutely must understand how the underlying behaves and its relationship with volatility, otherwise you cannot have proper risk controls in place. + +# Miscellaneous + +### What are some popular option selling strategies? + +The most popular would be covered calls and cash secured puts. + +CCs involve selling OTM calls on a stock you own. The short call position is covered by owning the underlying, hence the name (opposite of naked). A single equity options contract is for 100 shares, so an investor sells one call for every 100 shares they own. If the stock price rises beyond the strike price, the seller keeps the premium, but the options will get exercised and the shares called away. They sell them at the strike price, missing out on the extra gains beyond the strike. The seller still makes money on the sale, just not as much as they would have if they sold them at market price. If the stock grinds sideways, the options expire worthless. And if the stock falls in price, the options will also expire worthless, but the seller will lose money on their long stock position. Chances are they will lose more money than the premium they collected from selling the CCs. + +A CSP is a naked put that's sold either ATM or OTM with enough money in the account to cover the stock purchase if the option gets exercised. If the stock grinds sideways or rises in price, the puts expire worthless. However, if the stock falls in price the options will get exercised, and the seller will be forced to buy the stock from the options buyer at the strike price, most likely suffering a loss greater than the premium they received. + +A CC has the same downside risk as a naked put. If the stock declines in either scenario the investor risks losing far more money than the premium received. If you are comfortable with the risk of selling CCs you should also be comfortable with the risk of selling CSPs. However, you can lose more money in the CSP scenario if you buy back the put before expiration if IV rises enough, vs. holding it to expiration. + +Selling a CSP always means selling a naked put. It is not a covered put because you have cash to buy the stock. Whether or not you have enough money in the account to buy the shares at the strike price is irrelevant. A CP means you are also short the underlying, hence it is covered. It's the same idea as a CC, except it has unlimited risk due to there being no theoretical limit the price the stock could increase to, whereas a long stock position can't go below zero (not a guarantee for certain commodities). + +Other common strategies are wheeling and volatility crush. + +The wheel is similar to selling a strangle but not quite the same. You sell CSPs on a stock you wouldn't be opposed to owning, and in the unfortunate case of being assigned, you then sell CCs to recoup your losses. If you've been selling CSPs for a while you may still be net up when assigned, but if the stock craters you're looking at a significant loss. You hope the stock slowly climbs while selling CCs, but if the stock suddenly spikes your shares may get called away and you miss out on recovering your losses on the upside. + +There are variations to the wheel before being assigned. A jade lizard is selling an OTM call spread where the max loss on it is less than the premium collected from selling the CSP. Ideally the stock will trade in between the short put and call strikes and all options expire worthless. You can also trade a ratio put spread instead of just a put. + +The volatility crush trade is a delta neutral strategy. It profits not from a change in the underlying's price, but from IV decreasing. It's very popular right before earnings. IV on a stock can spike just before an earnings report is released due to uncertainty (vol rush). Unless you have insider information, you can only guess what the results will be. After the report is released, IV crashes because the uncertainty is gone (vol crush). Everyone knows the results. + +You find a company who's about to report earnings and the IV on their options has spiked. You then sell expensive ATM calls, and because ATM options have a delta of about 0.5 you buy 50 shares for every call sold. Your net delta is zero (delta neutral) because you've offset the negative delta from the short call position by buying shares which gives you positive delta. By hedging your delta you've eliminated directional risk. After earnings are released, IV craters and you buy back the options at a cheaper price and sell your shares. + +In theory this sounds like an easy way to profit. In reality it's not due to our archnemesis gamma gang. Delta is not a constant and as the underlying's price changes so does delta. If the stock soars after earnings, the call option's delta will increase and your delta exposure will become increasingly negative as the stock rises in price. If the stock tanks, your delta exposure will become increasing positive as the stock falls in price. In either scenario you start losing money from your changing delta position, and the amount you make from IV decreasing must be greater, otherwise you lose money overall on the trade. + +You can try to nudge your delta in a direction to hedge against this. If you're bullish on the stock you can overweight your exposure and buy more shares so that you have a positive delta. If you're bearish you can underweight your exposure and buy fewer shares so that you have a negative delta. If you're correct, good news for you. But if you're wrong, you lose more money than if you were delta neutral. + +Then you have a plethora of spread trades, such as vertical, horizontal, diagonal, and ratio, some with creative names. There are far too many to cover in this guide in detail. All of them have at least two legs (each leg is a component of the options trade) to the trade where you are both long and short options. + +### How does assignment work? + +There are two main types of option styles: European and American. European options can be exercised only on the expiration date. American options can be exercised at any time before (and of course on) the expiration date. + +When an option is exercised, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly selects a member firm that is short the option, and the firm uses an exchange-approved method to select a customer that is short the option. The OCC processes all assignments after market close, and because it processes closing buys before assignments, there is no possibility of assignment if you buy back your short position during the day's trading hours. + +An option buyer can exercise their option even if it makes no sense financially and they would lose money. It's their right to do so and you are obligated to fulfill it if assigned. Even if an option expires worthless it can still be exercised. The buyer may be speculating that major news gets released after hours (some options trade until 4:15 PM ET) and when the market opens again the underlying has moved favorably and their gamble paid off. To avoid risking this scenario simply close out the day of expiration. + +Only about 7% of options get exercised and the majority occur close to expiration. This is because options still have extrinsic value before they expire, and once exercised the buyer loses the extrinsic value. It makes more sense for them to sell it. + +Be aware that if you are assigned you may see a large negative balance or buying power in your account. This may be because the underlying stock trade has not settled yet. It normally takes T + 2 (trade date plus two business days) to settle. Settlement means an exchange of money and securities. Payment is made from the buyer's account to the seller's, and the seller's securities are transferred to the buyer's account. The other reason would be the value of the new stock position. If you have a small account and are now long or short hundreds or thousands of shares, the market value could far exceed the cash value of your account. You'll be forced to close out by your broker. Once either the trade settles or you close out the large negative balance disappears. + +### What are some scenarios I can expect assignment, especially early assignment? + +If an option expires ITM you can expect it to be exercised. Unless instructed otherwise, the OCC will automatically exercise any option that expires at least $0.01 ITM. + +Deep ITM options about to expire are candidates for being exercised. They start behaving like the stock itself since there's zero real chance of them not expiring ITM. They have no extrinsic value and in fact may trade slightly below their intrinsic value (at a discount to parity, parity being the intrinsic value). This is because no one really has any incentive to trade the option anymore, especially when they could trade the stock instead, which has more liquidity. A market maker would agree to buy it at a discount and at the same time open a position on the stock and exercise the option, profiting from the discount arbitrage. For example, XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading at $4.95. A MM buys the call while simultaneously shorting 100 shares, exercises the option and collects the risk-free profit of $0.05: + +(50 - 45) - 4.95 = 0.05 + +Selling spreads is a very common theta gang strategy, so let's examine the case of early assignment and assignment after expiration. + +You sold a 50/55 vertical call spread for $1.40 on XYZ that's trading at $53. It expires in a few days but for whatever reason the buyer decided to exercise early and you were assigned. You're now short 100 shares at $50 while still long the 55 call. Because vertical spreads are risk defined trades, this isn't a big deal. You're still long the 55 call, so you have upside protection which will cap your losses at $360 (500-140) should the stock move past $55. You could take the risk of riding it out and hoping the stock falls or you can close out the trade, accept your losses and move on. + +The other scenario is assignment at expiration. This is actually the more dangerous case of the two. Imagine the same circumstances except it's expiration day (Friday). The stock closes at $53, the short call expires ITM, and the long call expires worthless. The short call is exercised and you're assigned. Because you no longer have upside protection anymore, this is not a defined risk trade but instead undefined. You're short the stock over the weekend and no one knows what the opening price will be Monday. If major news gets published Sunday the stock could soar. Or it could crater. This is not the kind of risk theta gang likes to take. You should always close out of your short options on the day of expiration if there's a real chance of them expiring ITM, especially when your long options will expire OTM. Otherwise at that point you're now delta gang. + +If both the short and long options are ITM at expiration, the most you can lose is the spread minus the premium received. You might as well close out to avoid the hassle of being assigned and exercising your long options. + +The specter of early assignment gets raised quite a bit around the time dividends are paid. The scenarios are different for calls and puts. + +You may have read that if the time value of an ITM call is less than the dividend, the call is at risk of being exercised early. This is not because the investor will make money from exercising. Let's illustrate with an example. To be paid a dividend you must own the stock before the ex-dividend date. Call owners do not receive dividends. If you buy the shares on or after the ex-date you won't be paid the dividend, so the call owner will exercise it the day before the ex-date. + +XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading for $5.25. It's paying a $1 dividend and the ex-date is tomorrow so the buyer exercises the call. They're now long XYZ at $45. The ex-date arrives, the dividend is paid, and the stock is discounted by the amount of the dividend, and is trading at $49. They sell and wind up losing $0.25. What happened? Simply add up the numbers: + +(49 - 45) + 1 - 5.25 = -0.25 + +Whenever you exercise an option you throw away the extrinsic value. It doesn't matter how large the dividend is, since the stock's price is discounted by it on the ex-date. This is a losing trade. The only way the trade could make money is if the stock isn't discounted by the full amount. Sometimes this happens (other news gets published) but this is nothing more than a gamble if attempted. It's not an arbitrage opportunity. + +In fact, as the ex-date approaches you may see ITM call options trading at parity. This occurs because the stock's price will be discounted by the dividend, and so the option's intrinsic value will decrease as well. Buyers don't want to be left holding it going into the ex-date because they're going to lose money, so the selling pressure drives down the option's price to parity. It may even trade at a discount, presenting the earlier discount arbitrage opportunity. + +If the corresponding put with the same strike price as the call is trading for a price less than the dividend minus interest, then the call would be exercised and you would be assigned early. The trader long the call would exercise their call and buy the put, since this has the effect of recreating the same trade, except they receive the dividend. + +It's actually puts that offer a dividend arbitrage opportunity if the time value is less than the dividend. Using the example from earlier, a 55 put is trading at $5.25. You buy 100 shares of the stock at $50. Ex-date arrives, the stock is discounted to $49. You exercise the put, selling the stock for $55, collect the $1 dividend and profit a risk-free $0.75. Add up the numbers again: + +(55 - 50) + 1 - 5.25 = 0.75 + +You may already be guessing what happens to ITM puts as the ex-date approaches. Their price increases due to buying pressure, since the option's intrinsic value is about to increase by the dividend's amount. Once the time value at least matches the dividend the arbitrage opportunity no longer exists. + +One other scenario where you may be assigned is when the underlying is trading close to the option's strike price on expiration day. You don't know if it will expire ITM or not. This is called pin risk. What should you do if you're short? Close out. It's not worth the risk if the underlying moves adversely after market close and the options are now ITM. Just close out. + +### Should I close out of a position after collecting most of the premium earlier than expected? + +This is a good idea. A lot of people follow a rule where if they've collected at least 50-80% of the premium they close out of the trade and move on to the next. They especially follow the rule when it happens much sooner than expected. + +Collecting the last tiny bit of premium isn't worth what you're risking (a relatively large amount of money to make a small amount). You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. What will happen one day is the underlying will make a dramatic adverse move, eliminating all of your profit and even putting you at a loss. You'll be cursing yourself for being greedy and not closing out earlier. + +A lot of brokers will even let you close out of a short options trade for no commission if you can buy it back for only five or ten cents. + +### My position moved against me. What can I do about it? + +You have a few choices. + +**1. Close out** + +Close the trade. Accept your losses and move on. How do you decide if it's a good idea to close? Ask yourself, if you didn't already have this position would you do it now? Would you open the position now given the current price and market circumstances? If not, close out. + +You're going to end up on the wrong side of trades sometimes. It happens to everyone. Sometimes closing out is the right idea. Other times it's not. You can't predict the future, so don't beat yourself up when you make the wrong decision. But always be mindful of risk management and keep your losses small. + +**2. Ride it out** + +It's not unusual for option prices to spike only to collapse in price later on. If you haven't overleveraged yourself you have the funds available to ride out the trade. If the answer to the earlier question about opening the trade now is yes, it's reasonable to ride it out. You might even consider selling more contracts, but remember to never overleverage. + +Just make sure the HAPI (hope and pray index) isn't high, otherwise it's a sign you should close out. + +**3. Roll** + +Rolling is a good idea when you think the trade in the short term is a bad idea, but long term will make money. You close out of your existing position and open a new one. This is ideally done simultaneously so you don't trade into the position one leg at a time, risking a poorer fill on price (slippage) or only getting only a partial execution and your positions are now wrong. + +Rolling up is rolling to a higher strike price. Rolling down is rolling to a lower strike price. And rolling out or forward is rolling to a later expiration date. Typically you roll out, and possibly up or down. Whatever you decide, the goal is to roll to a new position that you can sell for more than the loss on the old position. That way you can at least recover your losses, and if you're fortunate, still turn a profit. + +### I'm doing great! I'm winning on all my trades collecting that sweet, sweet, theta. I want to sell even MOAR! + +Slow down there, speed racer. + +The second worst thing that happens to new traders is they have a series of winning trades (the worst being they lose all their money). They become overconfident, think they have it all figured out, and place a trade that's way too big for their account. They of course don't realize how clueless they are, discover to their horror the trade was completely wrong, and end up digging through the remains of their now smoldering account. + +You've made a bunch of winning trades. Great. Don't let it go to your head. Don't start scaling up massively simply because you've been winning lately. A better strategy is to risk a fixed percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your account on each trade. As you make more money the dollar value of each trade increases but the percentage stays the same. That way when a trade ends up being a loser, which will happen, the damage is minor and you can still recover. + +Theta gang is not a get-rich-quick scheme. If you're going to commit to this you're going to be doing it long-term, which means slowly making money. + +### I like to sell options on stock indices like the S&P 500. Anything I should know? + +SPY is extremely popular for trading options but there is a much better alternative: SPX. Why? + +* **Contract size:** Both SPY and SPX options are for 100 shares, but SPX trades the full price of the S&P, so ten SPY contracts equal the notional value of one SPX contract. This cuts down commission costs by a factor of ten. + +* **Cash settlement:** SPX is cash settled so your account is either credited or debited and you never have to deal with any shares of the underlying. + +* **No risk of assignment:** Because SPX is cash settled there's no possibility of assignment. You'll never have to worry about early assignment. + +* **Favorable tax treatment:** SPX options are 1256 contracts, which means they have different tax treatment. It does not matter how long you hold 1256 contracts for, whether less than a minute or over a year, all trades are taxed the same: 60% of gains are treated as long-term and 40% short-term. Theta gang trades are almost always short term (one year or less), so this is the biggest reason why you should trade SPX over SPY. You'll get to keep more of your profits. + +* **Minis are available:** If you want to trade SPX options but don't have enough money, fear not. XSP is 1/10th the size of SPX, so it's the same size as SPY but has all of the benefits of SPX. The only downside is it's not as liquid. + +If you like to trade options on other indexes (or commodities), you should consider futures options. Both futures and futures options are 1256 contracts and receive favorable tax treatment. + +EDIT: Hit character limit, rest of post [here](/r/thetagang/comments/ifrnu1/rthetagang_needs_a_faqwiki_so_i_wrote_one/g2papx1/) +[Book 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxbzim/moass_the_trilogy_book_two/) + +[Book 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qzcag6/moass_the_trilogy_book_three/) + +I want to start this with a brief message about myself for those of you that don't follow me. + +There is a lot of FUD about me that I would like to dismiss. + +I think this is an important step so that my work and the work of many others who have helped me along the way. Is not judged on my personality or profession, but by it's quality and adherence to supporting evidence. + +Many of you were likely unaware of my existence or never gave me a glance due to the fact that I did Technical Analysis on a "highly manipulated" stock. + +So here is my GME story, + +Exactly one year ago, to the day, I entered my first position on GME. It was November 17^(th),2020 and GME opened at $11.5, after following DFV's posts for a few weeks I decided that his analysis was solid (far better than anything else I had read on that sub in my couple years lurking there), Bought in Feb.19th 20c and 500 shares. I will never forget inputting those orders, it changed my life and many of you probably have that same memory. + +I began at first to comment and then get more involved with community as a whole I liked watching the streams but found them to be disingenuous, I never felt that AMC was the play and I still don't. So I settled on warden, he was obviously inexperienced at TA and didn't have a lot of market knowledge, but it was cool to have a place to hang out and talk my favorite stock. + +When warden announced he was leaving to handle personal matters I decided that I didn't want the daily posts to end. I thought they helped people hodl and provided a calm grounded narrative of what the stock was doing everyday. With a lot of people returning to work I considered this valuable and tried my hand at it. As it grew keeping up with the barrage of questions became daunting so as per many daily followers request I started a YT stream. + +It was fun and small I got to answer questions and help apes better understand the markets, we had fun. many of the people that were with me those first few weeks are still around today. + +I never did it to make money, GME had already assured that wouldn't be an issue. But, I had to eventually face the fact that there was a real cost to the time I took away from my job trading, and with most of my holdings still in GME I decided to monetize my stream. The support from the people that choose to support me has been invaluable and also allowed me the time to dig deeper and deeper into GME over the last several months. I promised myself that I would never withhold information behind a paywall and that no ape would ever have to become a member to ask me a question. I've kept that promise. + +Then warden blew up his audience on the back of a pretty speculative DD and I got lumped in with the "youtubers are evil" sentiment, which honestly I understand, the vast majority of them are big fucking shills. Regardless of what I had done or service provided, I was so labeled. I've learned to live with it. + +But I've continued plugging away over these last 7-months missing 1 stream, 2 Daily DD posts, and 3 weekly DDs as I was moving. I've flown mostly under the radar most people didn't like my opinions and I didn't want to confirm anybody's bias. The speculative stuff is fine it's fun to talk about but it's not my cup of tea. + +What I did do was try to leverage my newfound role as an "influencer" and I selected from the people interested in my work, the best and brightest I could and built a team to dig into GME's many mysteries. We have succeed and we have failed, but from our failures we learned and pushed forward. + +This DD is the culmination of our efforts. I think over the course of me releasing it, no matter your feelings towards me, that you would be doing your self a disservice by not reading it. I strongly believe this thesis presents the most realistic and evidence based view of the market mechanics that drive GME price action and is the best, to date, predictor of it's potential in the future. + +As always I hodl with all of you, + +\- gherkinit + +🦍❤️ + +So the plan for this DD is as follows: + +* The events leading up to and causing the gamma ramp/volatility squeeze that occurred in January. +* Tie together the ETF, FTD, Options and Futures cyclical movement that drives GME price action +* Lay out my futures cycle theory and explain the price movements on GME to date +* Explain why January's run did not cause the expected short squeeze on GME +* Take a look forward, using the same unavoidable market mechanics, to determine where SHFs, MMs, and ETFs are most exposed. +* Present a case for retail to in fact be the catalyst for MOASS +* Discuss the how and why , this is possible. +* Dispel the misinformation regarding options and present multiple ways they can be used effectively by those with the requisite knowledge. + +I will attempt to make an **evidence backed case** for each of my conclusions and try to tie all of this together in a way people can digest and understand. + +# Part I: January 2021 + +In January of last year we witnessed the price of GME rocket 2700%, according to the SEC report written a few weeks ago this was not due to SHF covering and it was not due to a gamma squeeze as was previously thought. + +Meaning that based on the SEC report, the price action witnessed in January was due almost entirely to retail buying and options hedging. + +While a lot of that conclusion appears to be true from the data presented, January was not likely the result of WSB's largest pump n' dump. + +Something else was going on behind the scenes something left out of the report... + +The massive short interest not only on GME but the short interest on ETFs that contained GME. + +The SEC report touches on this briefly but really limits it's explanation of what was going on, giving an example of XRT, but conveniently not the other 106 (currently) ETFs containing GME. + +**So what actually happened?** + +Well I guess the best place to start is Melvin Capital... + +**Section 1: Melvin Capital** + +As many of you know Melvin Capital, by their own admission, began their short position on GME in 2014. They built a massive short position over several years likely with the intention of driving GME out of business or deeply into debt. + +[The bear case for GME was strong, Melvin's position is evidenced here in the weekly OBV for GME indicating strong selling pressure.](https://preview.redd.it/5hdvmkmgx4081.png?width=2393&format=png&auto=webp&s=5055f9ea87e8c28b180a1693c7f4e4bab4bce41f) + +Until Michael Burry's purchase in 2019 Melvin was definitely winning the battle. This represented a integral change in the short positions on GME the renewed interest on the stock put a massive number of these short positions underwater. + +In August of 2020 and December of 2020 RC Ventures made their purchases of GameStop's stock (catalyzing the cycles I will define later in this DD), further exacerbating the pressure on GME short positions. + +# By the end of December 2020, the last three years of Melvin Capital's short position was negative 33% to 751%. + +**Section 2: The Big Boys** + +How did Citadel, Susquehanna, and Point 72, end up on the wrong side of retail? + +We know of their involvement due to the bailout's offered by them to Robinhood and Melvin Capital in January. Bailouts likely designed to prevent margin calls on these much smaller positions which could have had catastrophic effects for Citadel's et al. margin. + +Well if we take a look at the broader market during this time frame you will see significant short-interest in retail ETFs pick up after March of 2020. With Coronavirus mounting and no end to the pandemic in sight, there was a strong bear case against traditional retail. + +With companies like Amazon realizing all time highs e-commerce was looking better and better. It's not hard to see the justification these guys are likely some of many that went short the entire sector. ETFs presented a great way to short the entire sector in one fell swoop. That combined with less stringent reporting requirements and near infinite ability to create shares, provided the ideal opportunity for the massive funds. + +Go into any mall in America throw a rock and you will hit a company that these guys were short on. + +AdamMelvinCitadel, BBBY, M, EXPR, JWN, DDS, etc... the list goes on and on + +All these stocks move with GameStop because they were short the whole sector/index. They still are. + +[XRT current short interest](https://preview.redd.it/hp5jsp7ve5081.png?width=412&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f67552f4f7b6441d621c33150a5b1b1e69d7588) + +We can still see evidence of this ETF exposure play out on the charts as well + +[Some ETF basket stocks mimicking GME price action ](https://preview.redd.it/1x5sqzkrx4081.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=980b1d2bf8404c3fd26efbcaa9baab8e748afec0) + +**Section 3: The Clash of the Titans** + +Moving into January GameStop price is improving exponentially. Putting pressure on existing short positions. + +From August low to December high it is now up 405.37% + +This price increase in the underlying starts to breed FOMO we see retail buying in at ever increasing numbers stock. + +https://preview.redd.it/v8jrkh7zx4081.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=077a6a3b72ad04a672e616efc338b5fd82ebce2f + +and options... + +https://preview.redd.it/44142jh2y4081.png?width=1201&format=png&auto=webp&s=07933ec0eccb10b10890f08fbed21d1f3a6e5402 + +This push combined with delta hedging led to the price increasing another 2400% over the rest of the month. + +But on January 29th it all comes crashing down... + +But it can't be that simple it wasn't purely FOMO as the SEC would have you believe. + +January's price action was kicked off by a series of events that almost a year later we have a much better grasp of. + +# Part II: Cyclical Market Mechanics + +Underlying all of GME's price movement to date are several independent cycles that I have identified over the last few months. + +I've outlined these a bunch of times on my stream, but I want to get the information all in one place. + +**Section 1:** **Futures Roll Dates** + +First lets start with the first one I noticed that led me down this rabbit hole. + +CME Futures Roll dates strongly corresponded to GME price action So let's look at those. + +[This was the first significant indicator of price action on GME. These became very apparent after the July run into earnings and subsequent drop.](https://preview.redd.it/l4dz8c36y4081.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd86cc39ba844725e9792758c42e3a396a09559d) + +Once we stared digging back into previous rolls we realized that there were two variations. + +**1.** **The Roll:** + +This is marked by an increase of volume and price into the roll date, followed by a drop immediately afterwards. (Feb-Mar and Jun - Jul) + +**2. The Fail:** + +This is marked by a sharp spike in volume several days prior to the roll date then a decline in volume and volatility until a window of activity appears (anomaly) T+35 days after the roll date. **(t**hese T+35 dates also lined up with spikes in SEC FTD reports) + +[Fails create anomalies, Rolls do not](https://preview.redd.it/80grq2zay4081.png?width=2395&format=png&auto=webp&s=9232643a6501a6172f96e9919b4fd9f6388a41af) + +With these data points locked down the next logical place to look was what was causing these initial spikes. + +We currently know of two separate futures position exposure on GME + +* Variance Swaps as described by u/Zinko83 in this excellent DD, Volatility, Variance, Dispersion, Oh my! (must got to profile as it cannot be linked here) +* Swaps used to hedge NAV or exposure on creation baskets in ETFs. More on ETF here in u/Turdfurg23's DD The ETF Money Tree (same deal cause auto-mod) + +https://preview.redd.it/liaux6uhy4081.png?width=1465&format=png&auto=webp&s=b53ba0d63f55dcc18d30ca3e5d4032c2e440dc9c + +**Section 2: ETF Exposure** + +We were fairly confident at this point in our research that ETFs represented a significant part of the short exposure on GME. + +The ease of share creation by Authorized Participants and the exceptionally long settlement periods afforded to them, made ETFs the perfect way to not only continually suppress the price but also a great place to hide longer term short exposure, without the reporting requirements of traditional bona-fide market making. + +[This process is covered exceptionally in this paper by Richard B. Evans](https://jacobslevycenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ETF-Short-Interest-and-Failures-to-Deliver.pdf) + +[and this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg) + +So where was this exposure we knew that somewhere in these overlapping cycles we were gonna find it and we did. + +[These options dates that line up perfectly with OpEx, ETF Quarterly Options and GME Monthly Expiration ](https://preview.redd.it/0u7a2l5ny4081.png?width=1045&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e8ba722102a099879e3b22d4965af300699dbad) + +But it didn't fit until we factor in gamma exposure (GEX) from market makers on T+2/3 + +Then we start to see a very strong correlation with GME initial pump on these runs and overlapping gamma exposure. Starting after RC's initial buy in, with the magnitude increasing exponentially after his second purchase in December. + +https://preview.redd.it/wfvsonavy4081.png?width=2394&format=png&auto=webp&s=9504b0580a4ce2bc3c0073069b3b7e49d9c69651 + +These exposure dates have kickstarted the price increases on GME in the last 5 out of 5 futures cycles + +**So a quick break here to recap...** + +We know ETF Exposure kickstarts these cycles and that they either roll the futures (causing a run as the cover losses before rolling contracts forward) or fail to roll the contracts (causing FTD pile-ups in the anomaly window) + +So this left us asking **why January**? + +We had the obvious answer already, the SEC claimed that retail single handedly pulled off one of the largest pump and dumps in history with zero collusion...but did Daddy Gensler tell us the truth? + +Something had to be different about January's cycle specifically + +Then we stumbled across this little tidbit that had been staring us in the face for months. + +[ETF and Equity Leaps expire not once, but two times in the Dec-Jan Cycle](https://preview.redd.it/hpxl9ig5z4081.png?width=162&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e3e06f4c0006ce71e5d3056e622f3cea0e45d9) + +LEAPS for those of you that are unaware present a far higher amount of gamma exposure than quarterlies. + +[This is largely due to institutional interest in longer dated options contracts](https://preview.redd.it/h1vi3hu7z4081.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ad62722c46e646fd43f473ee17e7eb01856fb21) + +So let's look at these LEAP exposure dates in relation to the rest of our cycle + +[The price action and volume from Dec-Jan on these dates speaks for itself but June is the most impressive to me because in a sea of red from the ATM share offering and GME ETF rebalancing resulting in 12m+ shares sold at market, even all that liquidity wasn't enough to suppress the price, the expiration and the following t+2 days were still up. ](https://preview.redd.it/zqonhkhdz4081.png?width=2393&format=png&auto=webp&s=a10a25578e14b730f0187b63d446b62446c5f8d6) + +**Section 3: The FTD pileup** + +This is the last bit of what ties all this together. + +Since the futures fail patterns have a unique outcome that causes this anomaly window what exactly drives that anomaly in the areas in between the ETF exposure dates and the the subsequent futures roll. + +The answer is FTDs + +Now there are 2 types of FTDs + +1. **MM and SHF FTDs** \- Most people know this on by now but just in case + +*T+2/3 trading days (locate) + 35 calendar days (REG T)* + +2. **ETF Authorized Participant (AP)** \- + +Authorized participants have a bit more flexibility and thus there failures can occur outside of the standard timeline. + +[So AP's have T+3 trading days \(locate\) & T+6 trading days \(settlement\) + 35 calendar days \(REG T\) ](https://preview.redd.it/m6yfav5hz4081.png?width=978&format=png&auto=webp&s=7652021b21beab48c22d392f8028b98ed201179c) + +In the past you have heard a lot about T+35 and T+21 and this predicted cycles have failed to come to fruition because the anchor points for where the settlement periods end (t+2/t+6) and where the fail must be satisfied (t+35) were misplaced. + +Everyday is T+35 from another day, so having these ETF exposure dates and CME Roll and Expiration dates gave us insight into where MMs and APs had to do the most hedging and also where there was the most gamma exposure or deviation from NAV (net asset value, ETF hedging metric). + +With these anchor point locked down we started to be able to build out a t+35 timeline + +[The light-blue vertical lines represent GME FTD Regulation T dates set from the point of failure](https://preview.redd.it/1h6nrl3mz4081.png?width=2462&format=png&auto=webp&s=0549ae00458182a0056ae30440319f561e7a1c39) + +and since there are still a couple days around these periods with unexplained movement, such as November 3^(rd,) where we were sideswiped by completely unexpected price action. + +This is due to something we had never initially tracked ETF FTDs, throughout the year FTDs on GME containing ETFs had been fairly minimal with a few spikes here and there. So we sidelined the information and focused on GME. + +Well something interesting happened on September 21^(st.), that got attention immediately. + +[GME Containing ETFs Spiked with the largest numbers of FTDs to Date](https://preview.redd.it/7hjs32gpz4081.png?width=1947&format=png&auto=webp&s=c177e6fee4d77fe4945162a479a7cf45f9eb8329) + +Well guess what happened T+6 (trading) and 35 calendar days after that futures failure, like clockwork on November 3rd... + +[The final piece of the puzzle](https://preview.redd.it/jahpcbqsz4081.png?width=2454&format=png&auto=webp&s=f12c438ff49293f33689898c9b793e7e3a770d2a) + +So this at this point we are still unsure if this also occurred in other cycles, the only other large ETF FTD spikes we have this year are far smaller quantity. So now we have to go back and look at the previous cycles. + +* For the cycles that fail to roll futures the largest exposure date is the CME rollover(red line) +* For cycles were they roll the greatest amount of exposure is on the first FTD date (blue line) + +[Historical ETF FTD dates](https://preview.redd.it/f0vy7jphfa081.png?width=2499&format=png&auto=webp&s=848c3889848e30153a551147b0f8787f24c8564b) + +**Section 4: January IS absolutely unique!** + +Remember those LEAPS we talked about earlier? + +One day a year in January the highest amount of open interest and thus gamma exposure in the options chain occurs... + +# GME LEAPS and ETF LEAPS expire simultaneously + +this moment indicates the largest amount of exposure across the entire year on GME, and and also presents the highest probability for a short squeeze (more on this later) + +Without further ado... + +[Full futures Cycle breakdown from Sep 2020 to today](https://preview.redd.it/fhrrolg205081.png?width=2368&format=png&auto=webp&s=c67a7bf00437661aec9146dd29a398bf0f078ded) + +Here is the final guide to GME price action and the summation of this part of the thesis + +These dates and windows (futures) track almost every single move on GME since September of 2020. If it didn't happen on one of these dates/windows then it happened within their respective settlement periods (T+2/3) + +and for the smoother readers... + +[Basic representation ](https://preview.redd.it/jk68w43i15081.png?width=2396&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad00f2e3254eebe05cf5dea139fb290a3903af6a) + +This concludes this part of the DD, I have been writing non-stop since I ended my stream yesterday and am unlikely to do much today. I have been awake for 24 hours and still have to complete the of the other two parts of this by tonight. + +Please avail yourselves of the linked DDs they present evidence necessary to understand the following section of this. + +For my Daily DD followers, I'm sure you understand the time sensitivity of this information and will excuse my absence on this likely red day. + +In the meantime a lot of it is covered here ... [talk with Houston Wade here explaining my current theory](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mntHdNqltkw) + +For more information on my futures theory please check out the [clips on my YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial/playlists). + +Daily Live charting (always under my profile [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)) from 8:45am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +on my [YouTube Live Stream](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) from 9am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +or check out the [Discord](https://discord.gg/BGmjnrvHnw) for more stuff with fellow apes + +**As always thanks for following along.** + +🦍❤️ + +\- Gherkinit + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If you are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500.* 😁 + +*\*Options present a great deal of risk to the experienced and inexperienced investors alike, please understand the risk and mechanics of options before considering them as a way to leverage your position.* + +*\*My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and want to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +\* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/) +The US not drawing down Russian oil should increase the supply to others, no? Oil is fungible; if the US sought other sources, the net effect is not a reduction of supply overall. +A lot of my story is in my post and comment history, but the gist of it is, my mom passed away from cancer/liver disease in January, and left a mess for my father financially. She told him she had over 100k at Merrill Lynch, but it is nowhere to be found. We have found nothing so far to suggest it's anywhere. All my dad has right now is an IRA with over 50k. Our lawyer is going through and looking at institutions in our town to see if she has anything at each place, but he is taking months. + +I don't really know what to ask other than what could I be doing here to help? My dad is planning on refinancing the house and using equity to pay off debts that she had. She had two maxed out credit cards (one with 19k on it, and one with 4k, but the latter got paid off thanks to me), and a home equity loan (25k), which says to me she probably wasn't spending money wisely. We had no idea about the credit card with 19k for a balance. + +It just doesn't add up, though. there's nothing to show for over 100k being spent, and my dad made over 80k at his job for years. I just can't believe she spent all of it. There's nothing to show for it. It's crazy. My mom worked at a bank for over a decade, and was in a high ranking position, so she knew how finances worked. She did our tax returns the final year she was alive. It would be so not like her to blow through six figures, and on what? + +Merrill Lynch said her account closed in 2016. I swear I remember her saying she had something at Edward Jones, but we're waiting for the lawyer to find that. + +EDIT: I should probably mention that the credit card I paid off was connected to my dad (Chase told us this themselves), as I had to enter his social security number to access it. The other credit card he is not attached to at all legally, and so we haven't paid it. + + +Time to gather around the campfire for the first installation of Uncle Baxter’s Real Estate Finance 101. After observing the subreddit for some time now I feel that my background and experience can be useful for the community. I hope this post can serve as a tool, or foundation of knowledge, for eager investors who are just starting off. + +In today’s fireside chat we will cover the basics of real estate investing finance on multifamily properties. Including, but not limited to, a deep dive into the pro forma as well as various key asset and market metrics. May even dabble in a hypothetical deal… + +What is the ultimately goal of real estate investing? Rather, what is your goal of real estate investing? Understanding and answering this question honestly is the first step, as this answer will determine your business strategy. A multimillionaire dentist with a dental practice grossing $3MM annually who is looking for asset diversification will have a much different strategy than a recently graduated college student making $60,000 who is looking for long term wealth creation. + +Let’s first look at the variety of multifamily properties. + +Multifamily properties are generally broken down into four categories: + +* · Class A + * Newly built product with first class amenities and finishes + * 3%-7% vacancy (time it’s not rented) with no short-term major capital improvements +* Class B + * Built within the last 20 years with good amenities and ok finishes + * 10% vacancy with some short-term major capital improvements +* Class C + * “Working class” product built within the last 30 years with dated amenities and finishes + * 10%-15% vacancy with near-term major capital improvements +* Class D + * Dilapidated product over 30 years old with no amenities and worn finished + * 10%-15% vacancy with immediate major capital improvements + +Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of the Dentist from above for a moment. We have already created wealth and are looking for an alternative asset to diversify into. Where do we go? Often, we are looking for a turnkey (ready for immediate use) Class A asset that will require no true knowledge of real estate that can kick off 4-8% a year. Where the recently graduated college student is hungrier for wealth creation and will take on the additional risk of lightly rehabilitating the Class B or Class C asset for a higher return. + +Let this serve as an ideological framework, however, for matters of today’s lesson, let’s assume that we are looking for wealth creation. Let’s say that a long-lost cousin, Cousin Cornelius, comes to you out of the blue with a home run real estate deal that will only cost you $300,000. Should you blindly agree and purchase it immediately? Probably not. What do you need to understand further in order to justify that purchase price? + +Let’s break down Cousin Cornelius’ home run deal. Some important facts to consider: + +* The asset is a Class B quad-plex in a well-known area in the market +* The units in the asset are under market in terms of finishes and appliances +* The units are currently rented for $900 each +* The market rents for similar more slightly upgraded units are $1,100 +* The cost to upgrade the units to market are $5,000 per unit and will take a month to renovate + +So where do you begin? First and foremost, let’s understand the revenues this asset is producing. Revenues come from the units that are rented; 4 units x $900 = $3,600 per month or $43,200 per year. This is our Gross Income and in a perfect world, what we would take home every year. Unfortunately, the world sucks and takes most, if not everything from you, but I digress. If a tenant moves out or does not renew the lease, how long will it take to fill that unit? If the unit doesn’t fill, what is the cost associated with that? The cost will be 100% to you and it is in the form of lost rent. This is called our vacancy expense, which we will assume conservatively at 15% of our Gross Income. This means that we will not have a tenant in any given unit, on average, 15% of the time. We will deduct this from our Gross Income: $43,200 less $6,480 = $36,720. This is our Effective Gross Income. + +Now, each asset has unique characteristics and qualities that drive operating expenses. This particular property has an unruly lawn that needs mowing, as well as property taxes, property insurance, water & sewer expenses, garbage removal, and general cleaning… bringing our annual operating expenses to $12,852. Furthermore, we have no intention of organizing and maintaining this property ourselves, so we are going to hire a property manager, Jose, who charges a flat 10% fee of Gross Income: $4,320. From our Effective Gross Income of $36,720 we now deduct $12,852 in operating expenses and $4,320 in property management fees, leaving us with $19,548. This is our Net Operating Income. + +From our Net Operating Income, we can now derive one of the most important metrics in Multifamily Investing, the Capitalization Rate. The Capitalization Rate, or Cap Rate, is a measure of the rate of return generated on an investment property (and risk… but that’s for another post). + +Cap Rate = Net Operating Income / Purchase Price + +Our Net Operating Income is $19,548 and our purchase price is $300,000, giving us an implied cap rate of 6.51%. Why is this important? Cap rates don’t really mean all that much by themselves, but they are a useful tool for in-market asset comparisons. For instance, if the exact same house with the exact same financial situation was next door for sale for a price of $275,000, an implied cap rate of 7.11%, would it be a good investment? Well, we don’t yet know if it would be a good investment, but we do know it would be a better investment than purchasing the same asset for $300,000. You can apply Cap Rates to Net Operating Income to give a rough purchase price, conversely, you can apply a Cap Rate to a purchase price to understand an asset’s Net Operating Income. + +We can’t forget that once a decade we will need to replace the roof, or boiler, or floors, or electrical wiring, or driveway, or literally anything major in the house. This is separate and apart from general operating expenses. There are major expenses associated with these types of improvements, which are called Capital Improvements. Typically, 10% of an asset’s Net Operating Income should be set aside to cover these types of improvements. In this case, $1,954 should be withheld leaving us with $17,593 in annual cash flow to take home to our piggy banks. Without any leverage (debt) we are taking home $17,593 a year on an investment of $300,000, giving us an unleveraged 5.86% Cash on Cash return (Cash Flow / Purchase Price). Meh, pretty lousy if you ask me. But wait. The units can be renovated, and we can command a higher rent from those units with the renovation…. + +For an additional $5,000 per unit, or $20,000, we can increase our monthly per unit rent to $1,100. This brings our Gross Income to $52,800, our vacancy loss to $7,920, and our Effective Gross Income to $44,880. Our expenses of $12,852 won’t change, though, our property management fee, which follows Gross Income, increases to $5,280. Our Net Operating Income has now increased to $26,748. Saving 10% for capital expenditures, we can now take home $24,073 in annual cash flow. However, our cost basis (purchase price + improvements) has also increased, from $300,000 to $320,000 and our unleveraged Cash on Cash return is now 7.52%, up from 5.86%. + +Let’s revisit the initial question I posed before, what is your goal of real estate investing? From the perspective of the recently graduated college student who is looking for wealth creation, I’m going to go tell Cousin Cornelius to go kick rocks. No way in hell would I purchase this quadplex in need of $20,000 in rehab when I can park my money in an index fund and get a similar return in the stock market. Maybe if I could pick this property up for 10% less, but even then, the profit margin may be too thin for this. From the perspective of the Dentist, this deal may be too small and too labor intensive and may not be worth their time and money. Different strokes for different folks, but this deal won’t really appeal to either of our fictional alter personalities. + +I hope this can be a good starting point for how to go about looking at deals and a preliminary understanding of the finance behind successful real estate investing. Next time I will incorporate in the concept of leverage and how it can be used to better or worsen the returns from this investment opportunity. You may just want to keep Cousin Cornelius on speed dial… + +Until next time, + +Uncle Baxter +Something about no financial advice or whatever, I don’t know, I’m not from the US we don’t enable corporations to fuck us over for posting on a message board. Miss me with that shit. + +I have a background in economics, specifically game theory. I am qualified at the postgraduate level. Take what you will from that. + +Diamond Ape Rocket Rocket Rocket Moon + +**TL;DR:** Every time you ask yourself how wall st could’ve been so stupid and reckless, understand it’s because they are stupid and reckless. They’ve been conditioned to be this way. We will win because their business model is outdated. + +Let me fill you in on the greatest lie ever told by wall st: + +**They are smarter than you.** + +They believe it, and most of the developed world believes it too. + +So why do we all believe they are smarter than us? Well, just like we have confirmation bias in our sometimes shitty DDs, both wall st and main st are being fed confirmation bias daily about how much smarter than us they are. + +They are not smarter. They just play a different game. + +**There are two games being played:** + +1. The first is the game that we (used to) believe that we were playing: + +We are in a free market, the market is regulated at least somewhat to the extent that it is fair, there is no collusion and no conspiracy, because conspiracy theories are for idiots that live in their wife’s boyfriend’s basement. + +2 . The second is the game that we are actually playing: + +The market isn’t even nearly free or transparent. Win by any means necessary, **the only thing that matters is that you win**. Lie, cheat, steal and manipulate as much as you can afford to, because that increases your chances of winning. That’s the Nash equilibrium. + +Here’s the thing though, everyone has played this game for so long that wall st lost sight of the fact that they have political, financial, informational, professional, and legal advantages, and so did we. They take these advantages for granted, as if the playing field is even and they’re winning fair and square because they're just smarter. + +A little proof: After they colluded to turn off the retail buy button in late Jan, Steve Cohen of Point72 tweeted “Trading is a tough game . Don’t you think?”. As if this blatantly illegal market manipulation was a fair part of the game. + +**So why will we win?** + +To answer that question, let me tell you a little story about Encyclopedia Encarta: + +In the mid-1990’s Microsoft started an encyclopedia called Encarta. They employed all the right incentives. They paid professionals to write and edit thousands of articles. Well compensated managers oversaw the whole thing to make sure it came in on budget and on time. A few years later another encyclopedia started - A different model - Do it for fun. No one gets paid a cent or a euro or a yen. Do it because you like to do it. Now 10 years ago if you had talked to an economist … anywhere … and said “Hey, I’ve got these different models for creating an encyclopedia - If they went head to head who would win? 10 years ago you could not have found a single, sober economist anywhere on planet earth who would have predicted the Wikipedia model. This is the Titanic battle between these two approaches. This is the Ali-Frazier of motivation, right, this is the Thrilla in Manila, alright - Intrinsic motivators vs extrinsic motivators - Autonomy, Mastery & Purpose versus Carrots & sticks - And who wins - Intrinsic motivation, autonomy, mastery and purpose - in a Knockout. + +I’m sure you can see the similarities. + +So while they have all the advantages that Encarta did. We have the trump card: **each other**. Yes, that’s all we’ve ever had, and we’ve just realised that’s all we need. Literally a few subreddits with some transparent information sharing and a meritocracy of ideas is all that’s needed to bring some of the most powerful people on earth to their knees… + +Don't get me wrong, we have big players on our side too, but we were the catalyst. + +If that doesn’t explicitly demonstrate how unfair the game is, then I don’t know what else I can tell you. The game was so unfair for so long that their strategy became reckless enough that a few people buying and holding will FINISH THEM. We know it, it’s just a matter of time until they do too. + +They played their cards this way because that’s the way all players taught them to play. + +To be fair, their track record has been outstanding, until now. +I’m in a bit of a bind. I’ve got a decent NW, but it’s not quite where I need to be to sustain fat life in a HCOL state. + +The problem is, I’m getting a bit lazy. The first business I bootstrapped, from that first sale to obsessing about data analytics to wearing all the hats and actually talking to customers etc. + +The second business I acquired. Flipped it for a 10x ROIC in two years. F*king great result. + +And now I’m the “weakest strong man at the circus” as one astute sub member pointed out. + +This cowboy needs one more ride. One more big score. But I don’t know if I’ve got the cojones. The stuff I used to do is now being done by BlackRock’s castoffs. I’m just a dude who used to know how to hustle. + +How, oh how, will I get there… +**Like the title says, this shit is cray cray and we can’t spend all afternoon moderating it. If you make a post and think it's a quality contribution to the subreddit send a message to modmail and we can approve it.** + +The last two days have seen something like 200 post removals to start with, so with WSB going private and it being 7pm already, which is when we're typically light on mods, I'm just going to step in and stop this nonsense for the time being. + +Also, Reddit has been having server issues all day meaning automod is just fucking up all over the place and not doing it's job. This also means modmail is on the fritz, so if you don't get a response in a timely manner I apologize but there's not a lot we can do about it - I couldn't even message other mods to warn em I was doing this. Reddit is a shitshow rn and we can't spend our whole night fixing it unfortunately. If people weren't spamming the sub with garbage all day we wouldn't be here. + +Lastly, as a PSA to all of the people who think they've been on WSB for a while and are confused: you haven't been on WSB for a while if this is confusing. They regularly go private. It's not the SEC, it's not the FBI, it's not whomever else they say is investigating them. It's because the mods are tired of dealing with noobs that flood the sub after a media event so they just shut it down. Hopefully that don't hit ya like a brick in the ol cranium... + +This is why we can't have nice things. + +Apologies to all the real ones. + +E: Just FYI, if you're messaging modmail about getting a post approved, and your post is about GME, Short squeezes, your thoughts on shorts, or whatever else, then there's a 99.99% chance it's not getting approved unless you have a very in depth analysis or some new and important news item. Add your thoughts to one of the existing threads. + +e2: looks like they're back, I'm still going to keep the post block here for a bit, prior to WSB going down we had probably 40 threads that should have been comments in existing threads. To be completely honest we have been in need of some sort of overhaul in both moderation and rules for some time - the onslaught of frankly very low effort posts over the last few days has only served to expose just how much we rely on users to do the right thing with regard to posting, this isn't the thread for that, and I'm slammed at work, but it's gotta happen at some point. + +e3: y'all, 5 people DMd me and 6 others messaged our modmail asking for access to WSB. That is NOT how reddit works lol. I do think this is illustrative of how many people have flocked to this sub and this site without understanding any of it recently. + +e4: in the last 60 minutes there were 53 new submissions, of those only 4 were actual posts worth making. I'm gonna leave the sub locked for a bit till we get a better solution, there's just no way to moderate this onslaught +Hi all, + +I am looking to buy a used Yacht under $950,000 to $1millon plus Tax. This is my first time and wanted to ask for some advice on how I should navigate the purchase. I am planning to hire a Yacht broker but still want to ask this group, what should I be aware about and what questions should I be asking. I want to make sure that I am not missing anything critical as a first time buyer. + +Appreciate the help +Edit: I've gotten a lot of snarky remarks about "Go ahead, vote it down" in the title. If I could change it, I would. But being the 40th person to say "Voted down because you ask me to" does not make you funny or clever. Moving on... + +The TL;DR version: + +Money is no longer the bottleneck in saving lives. Much of the money donated at this stage will line the pockets of NGO administrations or be stockpiled for a future crisis. Pouring extra money into charity aid right now, we risk increases local corruption and stalling legitimate economic recovery, plus charity donations to Haiti made today will likely never get there. What needs to happen now is direct international investment in Haiti's infrastructure. + +All of this is from a source who's most recent job title was "Country Director" of an international emergency relief program. + +This (unrelated) article says the same thing, from a different author. http://solarcrash.com/2010/01/stop-donating-to-haiti/ +Both authors choose anonymity because it's highly unpopular to tell people to stop donating, and even less popular to tell people that their donated money could be wasted. + +Edit: Clarified a few points. +A few assumptions: + +1. The gifts are made by elves who are paid nothing. + +2. The materials for the gifts are magically created, not purchased from a supplier. + +3. Every child in the world 0-16 gets $400 in gifts. I know that's totally unrealistic but so is Santa. + +4. The gifts cannot be returned or sold. + +5. All of the gifts are delivered on December 24th. + +6. The economy is "average". + +7. The real toy manufacturers don't get any royalties or anything, and demand for them does go down as the supply is flooded. + +That would roughly be 1.925 billion people, a total of $770,000,000,000 worldwide being created in a very short period of time. The biggest hit would probably be on the companies who Santa is screwing over, right? + +And some follow-up questions: + +1. Would its predictability lessen any potential impact? + +2. If the gifts *could* be returned for cash value, would the (greedy) kids be creating even more money? +Generally speaking corporations are only taxed on their profit - that is the cheese they actually keep after they have accounted for losses and operating costs and other debts. Individual citizens on the other hand are taxed on their entire income, effectively all of their "revenue", despite what other expenses they may have to account for - rent, medical insurance, dent payments, etc. Are there any valid reasons for this discrepancy? + + +I am looking for a non-political answer to this, hehe, as much as possible. I know that's kind of an oxymoron, but what I mean is that I am wondering if there are any *well reasoned* positions, supported by some kind of data or academic theory, and not just something rooted in principles of social justice or free-market evangelism or anything like that. e.g. is there a monetary or "sound money" reason. + + + +**∆I am American and only have experience with individual taxes in the United States, I understand that this question might not apply other places, but I am assuming it is the same in _most,_ so let's just take that as a baseline** +9 months on from posting about Motley Fool's Extreme Opportunities (a subscription service), I thought I would give an update on how your $100k would be going had you invested $10k in each E*xtreme Opportunity* + +[\\"Extreme\\"](https://preview.redd.it/rksy829emy471.png?width=562&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3661d4a8de6a59c530c410a5e941e185633dacd) + +So I don't think it's a surprise to anyone here, however you would be red, currently down 7%, or $7058 + +Don't forget to factor the $399/year fee for this privilege, so down $7457 total + +&#x200B; + +[18th December, 2020](https://preview.redd.it/hh2sb4hwmy471.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d18979441c36a169e1335ec57934f9660db19e1) + +[18th of March, 2021](https://preview.redd.it/l3d49k0mmy471.png?width=766&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b1d906f24aa3ae87e5d82419130c44ebf9cc2f0) + +[13th of June, 2021](https://preview.redd.it/w9h305wkmy471.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=502026ee2ca454f161c32567814469c838dd4bd7) + +In that time, VDHG has gone from $53.11 to $60.39, a gain of 13.7%, so your opportunity cost for being a Motley Fool instead of being an Ausfinance shill is $21,157 + +One solid winner, EML Payments (EML.AX), who are up 30% since then (peaked at +82%) + +One outstanding loser, Damstra (DTC.AX), who are down 46% since then, and seem to be a total dog + +Long story short, go spend your $399 on something useful, like a bag of coke, and choose your own shitty stocks instead of wasting it on clickbait chimps with typewriters throwing darts at random tickers\*\*\* + +\*\*\* not financial advice +Most rookie traders have it entirely wrong when it comes to day trading the market full time. Becoming consistently profitable isn't actually hard at all. You just need to approach it from the other end. + +You may have been swayed into day trading by some stock market "guru" friend who brainwashed you into chasing hyped up meme stocks and pump and dump penny stocks. You were probably told that day trading is the easiest thing in the world and you can do it from your kitchen table with your pink-striped boxers on. Then you even got lucky with GME and are now confident enough to strike the next coup. How many times are you able to repeat it without getting crushed ultimately? + +If you've gotten off the wrong foot with trading early on, this may serve as a gentle reintroduction: + +Firstly, you have to get accustomed to the idea that markets don't move fast at all. Forget the 5- minute time frame for a while. Secondly, you zoom out to the weekly or the monthly chart. You will start to see the forest for the trees. + +A rookie seeks thrills. His day job is so boring that he prefers to squander hard-earned savings. Or life is so miserable that taking chances is far more favorable than enduring it. If that's what you're after, go ahead, I won't stop you. + +A professional seeks profits, and systems that will yield profits consistently. If you are inexperienced, how could you possibly start with day trading? Day trading is hard. Start with something that's easy and gives you motivation to improve. + +Get used to a time frame that's more manageable for you. Look at the weekly chart and observe what the market is doing. Has it been rising in the past 6 months? Has it been dropping? Where did the trend reverse and how could you have spotted it? Trade a smaller position until you really have a competitive edge. + +This is a marathon, not a sprint. You're here to survive first and foremost and then to thrive. So I ask you again: are you seeking thrills or profits? + +Find universal rules that have been applicable across market conditions. If you can't find them, keep looking because you eventually will. I have been applying the same rules for over a decade and they still work the same like on the first day. I posted my 2020 [results](https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/lht3te/anybody_here_does_trend_following/) here before and even guide you through the market activity in real-time on [Discord](https://discord.gg/Uu5wmeQyEj). + +Once you gain experience and consistency with larger time frames, you can start to narrow down to shorter time frames, and possibly even day trading. Doing it in reverse is pretty much equivalent to performing neurosurgery on the first day of your dental internship. +One of our Quality Contributors, /u/handsomeboh, here works at a Hedge Fund. + +WallStreetBets and GameStop have put Hedge Funds in the public eye recently, especially on Reddit. So, ask your questions about them here. + +Handsomeboh provides the following bio: + + "I'm an Analyst in one of the largest and most famous Hedge Funds in the world + (not going to reveal which one or where because I don't want to get doxxed). + I graduated with a BA in History & Economics, then worked 1.5 years in M&A at + an investment bank, before I moved over to the hedge fund. + + I'm one of the guys who pores through reports and filings, trying to figure out + whether we should have long or short positions (or maybe something more + creative involving options) in different companies. Ask me anything - I won't + respond to any obvious trolls, but I'll try my best to be as objective as possible." +International Airlines Group (IAG) the owner of British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia, and two other retail transport airlines, a cargo business, a loyalty program, and finally a dedicated restructuring and business transformation arm. Is my focus right now seeing how COVID-19 has spelt serious trouble for the group. + +Even now we are seeing the UK government call out IAG's actions relating to how they are coping with COVID-19. + +[https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-iag/iags-walsh-rejects-lawmakers-criticism-over-british-airways-plan-idUKKBN23M2RJ](https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-iag/iags-walsh-rejects-lawmakers-criticism-over-british-airways-plan-idUKKBN23M2RJ) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xqobaq76mh551.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d09991f3391d60607e4f837750c1248cf110ede + +**Is IAG In Trouble?** + +Yes is the short answer. Supposedly the group is burning £20m a day with almost no revenue generation from the airline groups. Cargo, loyalty schemes, and business operations are still in full swing but this was never the big-ticket revenue generators. + +That said there also aren't going to be falling off the radar any time soon. Two weeks ago one of the owned IAG brands has brought out a competitor, a move which has attracted a lot of negative press due to their increasing dominance and seemingly inconsistent approach to how the airlines are doing. BA is firing its staff and rehiring them on cheaper contracts, while Iberia is buying competitors. + +It's this dynamic of [moral issues](https://onemileatatime.com/british-airways-threatens-to-fire-all-pilots/), [a damaged industry](https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/uk-government-issues-flight-resumption-guidance/138796.article), the [CEO stepping down in September](https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/newsroom-listing/2020/chief-executive), and a global pandemic which has made me want to look at IAG as a shorter-term investment opportunity. + +**Is IAG Fundamentally Strong?** + +We only have the Q1 figures to go off and any announcements IAG has made to build up a picture of IAG life during COVID-19, which they have clearly been as light as possible on. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qell3s17mh551.jpg?width=599&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a221b8aec56934991c4963d9f6626cfd1ce14586 + +Source: [IAG Q1 2020 Traffic Report](https://www.iairgroup.com/~/media/Files/I/IAG/traffic-statistics/q1-20-traffic-and-capacity-statistics.pdf) + +We know that flights have been grinding to a halt, domestic and international travel has been restricted or blocked. However, without a Q2 report, we don't have any official insight into the impact. Given the massive cutbacks and use of government support, we know the impact is single biggest threat IAG has faced in its nine-year life. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o1ixinu7mh551.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=270893b2ceab5b92e26c29a43a359957cf9c6429 + +Source: [Genuine Impact](https://www.genuineimpact.io/) + +While the surface figures don't look alarming, we are dealing with fundamentals which don't include the current impact, the only dynamic bits to the company assessment is the current price and latest analyst ratings. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4u7jukp8mh551.jpg?width=881&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de730940d978176815de94fb0e28e76f0b045b56 + +Source: [IAG Q1 2020 Report](https://www.iairgroup.com/~/media/Files/I/IAG/press-releases/english/2020/Interim%20Management%20Statement%20for%20the%20three%20months%20to%20March%2031%202020.pdf) + +Looking at the annual figures IAG was brining in around €25m a year in revenue with a profit margin bouncing between 6-11%, 2016 and 2017 saw 8.56% and 8.69% respectively with 2019 dipping to a low of 6.72%. If you look at Q1 we even saw a -36.71% profit margin for a three month period where we had one a bit good months of travel. + +It's no secret that airlines struggle with profitability. With a gross margin of 28.48% in their 2019 full-year statement, that doesn't leave a lot of wriggle room. Not to mention the pilling debt which has no doubt taken a serious turn for the worse. + +In 2019 we had 80.85% debt to assets, with €12.7m in current liabilities. Even in that report the current assets only came to €11.3m. The biggest asset IAG has is it's fleet and sites, coming in at €19.1m, however, the planes need maintenance and ongoing expense and the sites are only useful for other aerospace firms or [Top Gear](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-abandoned-spanish-airport-made-famous-by-top-gear-may-be-about-to-sell-for-only-10000-euros-2015-7). The point is I don't have a lot of faith in these long term assets being worth as much as the balance sheet claims. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/1eybgli9mh551.jpg?width=1383&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=414ddd73b25e0ac0b492f12e7d841aac46910a95 + +Source: [Wallmine](https://gb.wallmine.com/lse/iag) + +With increasing debts, lower profits, and an increase in financing, even without COVID-19 this wasn't the healthiest looking firm. Then why was this one of the hot stocks, and why is it making a comeback? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xyxzrbbamh551.jpg?width=769&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a54e979df82b0503e50f5f3b9fdbea46fe7e58c5 + +Source: [Google Finance](https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=LON:+IAG&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRozi3w8sc9YSm9SWtOXmPU4OIKzsgvd80rySypFJLiYoOyBKT4uHj00_UNM5LKcrMyClN4AA07cIs8AAAA&tbm=fin#scso=_CCzqXrXhHvXqxgPvq7zQDw1:0) + +News that flights would reopen gave the stock a recent boost, but firing their staff and rehiring them, as well as the UK governments isolation after travelling plans have restricted any upward momentum. + +The value metrics are all very misleading, firstly we have had a negative quarter, the liabilities and assets are assumed to remain the same, and even looking annually we aren't accounting for what could be three or more heavily negative quarters. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/0xxrsa3bmh551.jpg?width=922&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30db1a3a2e1e1345c994b63390936e16e2ea0d37 + +Source: [Wallmine](https://gb.wallmine.com/lse/iag) + +While IAG is losing money I'm not expecting this dividend to be flowing, but once we get into a more stable position this will be a big attraction for other investors. Assuming that IAG isn't going to fail within the next year, the company is taking steps to payout to shareholders in the long term. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zro2nhubmh551.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=c12d8db3cc85333fcc2a2b0c22cdefbdbe1f39d2 + +Source: [Genuine Impact](https://www.genuineimpact.io/) + +The sell-side analysts are also pretty punchy in terms of IAG's future. They can raise and manage more debt and can increase profitability by making the cuts which they have been performing over the last month or so. + +I'm not surprised to see strong support by analysts, and even a consensus share price target of £4.2781, compared to the current price around £2.70\~. + +**Summary Pros** + +* IAG can generate large profits and is geographically spread out +* Buying up competitors while the market is cheap +* Taking full advantage of government support in multiple regions +* Already gone through the painful shrinking process +* The market is eager to invest back into the firm once travel restrictions are lifted +* Big dividend to tempt in other investors and give them confidence, producing more momentum + +**Summary Cons** + +* Growing debt and the new state of debt is unknown +* Very fragile and reactive to COVID-19 news +* Collecting a large amount of bad PR +* Growing size could attract government attention, especially if they need more government assistance + +**My Thoughts** + +Right now I am looking at IAG as a huge momentum play. News of the 14-day self-isolation in the UK and around the EU being eased would be a massive boom. I think fundamentally the airline industry is a tough sell, and coming out of COVID-19 is going to leave a stain on their balance sheets for the next couple of years. + +I am intending to buy into IAG and set myself the £4.00\~, just under the sell-side estimates. If we can hit that price point in the next three months and the price begins to wobble again, I'd be happy to sell out and put my cash elsewhere. + +Best case we see a closer return to old figures, but I don't see that happening once we see the state of the new debt. It would be overwhelming momentum and lighting in a bottle moment if we saw the £5 mark within the next six months. + +Let me know what your thoughts are on IAG? Is this a company you are invested into, or one you have been watching? As always I love to hear your feedback! + +Thanks for reading and stay safe. + Gamestop GME short sellers have lost $443.4 million so far this month. $GME is among the top 10 most unprofitable stocks for short sellers during July 2022. All GMErs out there, are you still long? + +Shares of GameStop (GME) - Get GameStop Corporation Report are trading higher again in June, helped by catalysts such as the launch of the company's NFT marketplace and a stock split. + +In fact, GameStop shares have managed to outperform the S&P 500 so far this year. And they've also managed to cause big losses for short sellers who insist on betting against the stock. + +According to a report published by S3 Partners on July 21, GameStop has been among the top 10 most unprofitable stocks for short sellers during July 2022. So far this month, short sellers have already lost $443.4 million on GME. + +https://preview.redd.it/m5kxjxpcibe91.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=b97d39d0f443169c97b62e6c8180e382adbe644f + + It's worth noting that, compared to the many large-cap companies on the list, GameStop's average borrow fee is incredibly elevated — 32%. + +Borrow fees are the amount that short sellers must pay to "borrow" shares of the stock and open a short position. + +However, following the report and GameStop's 4-for-1 stock split, fees reached a sky-high 126%: + +Read the full article: [https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-short-sellers-take-a-beating-in-july](https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-short-sellers-take-a-beating-in-july) + +Gamestop GME short sellers have lost $443.4 million so far this month. GME is among the top 10 most unprofitable stocks for short sellers during July 2022. + +All GMErs out there, are you still long? +* RBI has asked HDFC Bank to pause adding new credit card customers +* Bank also has to pause activities under its Digital 2.0 initiative +* Many outages in the last 2 years +* The app was unusable for many days in early 2019 +* A recent outage happened in Nov due to power failure +* Another smaller outage this week +* The notification is based on the experience till Nov +* Bank board has been asked to 'fix accountability' +* This can be a case study of how messed up IT operations can bring down business operations + +One source: [https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rbi-halts-hdfc-bank-digital-activities-asks-bank-to-stop-sourcing-new-credit-card-customers-after-multiple-digital-failures-6183521.html](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/rbi-halts-hdfc-bank-digital-activities-asks-bank-to-stop-sourcing-new-credit-card-customers-after-multiple-digital-failures-6183521.html) + +Edit: More news reports indicate the theory from /u/crimelabs786 that an example is being set here. Also, there are good anecdotes in this thread. It may be a good read to have a thread just on the inside stories of IT stuff in major companies. +http://www.philly.com/business/a/john-bogle-dead-vanguard-obituary-20190116.html + +The Godfather of indexed mutual funds and a legend in the industry. RIP Jack. +https://www.valueresearchonline.com/story/h2_storyview.asp?str=47281 + +>The other day on Twitter, I came across a thread where the topic was the difference between aggregating point-in-time experiences vs aggregating the same experiences over a period of time. That sounds like something exotic but it's actually a very simple idea and every investor should understand it. + +>The original tweet asked if you were offered an investment that had a 50 percent chance of returning 0.6x (40% loss) and a 50 percent chance of returning 1.5x (50%) gain, should you take it? The answer would appear to be an obvious yes because (0.5 \* 0.6) + (0.5 \* 1.5) = 1.05. You can, on average, expect a 5 percent gain so why not? + +>However, the plot of this story is thicker than that, because if you were to repeatedly do this, you would eventually go bankrupt. That's right, two options that average out to 1.05, if taken repeatedly, would cause you to lose money, and continue to lose it. + +>For all but the most mathematically challenged, the reason should be evident. The above equation executes both the arms of the experiment simultaneously. However, if you first lose 40 percent, and then gain 50 percent, you are left with a 10 percent loss. Obviously, the same thing happens when the gain comes first and the loss come later. So when averaged, this gets you 1.05x, but when done sequentially, it's 0.9x. + +>At one level, this is a simple trick of maths, worth no more than a witty tweet. You could say that all this signifies is that to compensate for a 0.6x loss, you need a 1.667x gain and that's it. However, there's a point here which in real life is the cause of a lot of losses for investors. As your loss increases, the gain needed to compensate for it goes up exponentially. If, instead of 0.6x, you got 0.5x, then the 1.67x shoots up to 2. At 0.4x, it has shot up to 2.5x. At 0.1x (something that happens to lots of stocks), you'll need 10x to compensate! + +>The moral of the story is that it's very hard to make up for losses, and it gets disproportionately harder even with modestly larger losses. Averages are fine for writing articles and for looking at a large mass of investments. However, the average (or any other kind of aggregate) may not reflect the experience of the individuals that make that set of investments. +There is such a stigma on this sub (and Aus in general) about buying an apartment with your mortgage money that it's barely even bought up, even with all this discussion about housing affordability. + +Realistically, the physical land constraints of Sydney and Melbourne mean that continuing to crank out freestanding houses just isn't sustainable, and major cities throughout the world are all far more apartment-heavy anyway. + +At some point people will just need to accept if they want to live in one of these cities without insane incomes that apartments are the way to go. + +And so the emphasis should not be just this futile ranting about trying to get houses in the cities to be more affordable, but for there to be a *massive* upgrade in the standards/quality of apartment builds that allow for a far greater scope for growth in supply. + +That's not to mention the environmental benefits of apartments vs. detached housing either... + +Until we have apartment blocks with proper amounts of living space, properly soundproofed walls/windows, public green space nearby etc etc. all as standard, the public attitude to "apartment = bad" and thus trying to pump massive mortgages into freestanding houses (and continuing to inflate the prices even more) will never change. + + +So my friend sold me his car the other day (a ’13 Honda Accord with 55,000 miles) for $3000 but told me to write down $8000 on the title’s sell price because he said that would benefit me when I decide to sell the car and the buyer (dealer, third party, private or whatever) will think I actually bought it for $8000. I’m not sure if my friend was lying to me or tried to screw me over in some way or another, but I was just wondering if doing that would actually benefit me when I do decide to sell the car? Thanks. +Edit 6: I created r/ClassActionRobinHood for people to gather around so that my reddit won't crash under the sheer force of autism that my inbox is receiving. This post was just out of frustration and memes over RHs bullshit corruption; I am not a laywer nor am I claiming that i'm going to create a class action by creating this post. You retards do as you wish, feel free to join if you want. Hell, use it as a backup in case something happens to WSB, I don't give a fuck + +Edit: Stop giving me these beautiful awards you retards, use the money on GME. + +This is the way. 💎🙌💎. GME GANG FOREVER 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 STRAIGHT TO THE Nth DIMENSION BOYS 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit 2: I will be acquiring more shares today. I have 17.7k liquid money in my TD. Bought 15 shares @327. Waiting for another dip to yolo 12.7k into the rest. I have 18 shares holding on RH with average cost of $112. 1000EOD Boys. Fuck the shorts, fuck the establishment. Melvin and friends can suck my fat diamond encrusted cock. Don't forget to leave RH a nice review on the app store thanking them for your gains + +Edit 3: I convinced my mother to yolo her stocks into GME early on @90. She still continues to add onto it and as of now she holds 147+ shares and is profiting well over 60k. I don't know what her cost average currently sits at but if my mother can 💎🙌💎 then so can you. She's more diamond-handed than me. Do your part brothers. We'll all be feasting on tendies from our golden plates and washing it down with Shitron tears as we wipe our asses with Melvin bucks by end of next week. + +Edit 4: I can't believe how much this is blowing up. I wasn't expecting it. But while I have the spotlight, I just wanted to thank every single one of you from the bottom of my heart. You tards have done absolute wonders for the community and started a financial revolution fueled by memes and autism. + I read all these stories about how this community has helped people pay off their debts, care for sick loved ones, allowed people to give back to their local communities, and so much more. You guys are the true unsung heroes of this generation and are some of the most wholesome degenerates i've ever seen. This fight isn't about just tendies anymore, its about justice and equality, it's about sticking it to the corporate elites who run the world. Don't let these greedy scumbags take what's rightfully yours, for too long the little guy has been pushed and shoved around but now it's our time to shine. Keep up the good fight and don't back down. 💎🙌💎 for days boys, WE WILL NOT STOP UNTIL WE SEE ELON SHOOT A GME THEMED ROCKET FILLED WITH THE BURNT ASHES OF THESE BASTARDS TO MARS. FUCK SHORTS. THIS ONE IS FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 GME 5,000 IS NOT A MEME NOW. POWER TO THE PLAYERS! + +EDIT 5: Stop spamming me with awards and upvotes, you retards are crashing my inbox! Put forth all this glorious energy into GME. + + + + +TL;DR: GME to 1,000 EOD, GME 5000 EONW. THE SUQEEZE HAS NOT SQUOZEN YET, BUY AND HOLD 💎🙌💎🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +My old econ professor made the claim that one of the reasons (among many others) CEO compensation has skyrocketed compared to worker compensation is due to executive pay essentially being public knowledge, which benefitted CEOs as it reduced information asymmetry and reduced friction, allowing for a more free market system in terms of compensation. + +In the US, there is a massive stigma and even retaliation for revealing salary information (an old company I was with was becoming a JV partner with another company and they said we weren’t allowed to share personal compensation information at the risk of being fired). + +My professor said that if we made worker compensation information public, it would also reduce information asymmetry and allow for pay to become subject to a more free market dynamic, which would transfer power and wealth to the workers and increase compensation. + +He personally thought all compensation should be made public and that would help overall worker compensation to increase relative to today. + +How true is this? +For me (just on top of my head): Restaurant visits with friends and acquaintances, small insignificant gifts for my SO, body massages, a good quality bed, travelling and investing in networking. +Etoro has been acting the c*nt for a while now. Today they introduced a mandatory stop loss on $GME shares. Meaning people's shares were lost instantly as the price went down(even with no leverage). This is outrageous as it's a manipulation of the price, they clearly don't have enough liquidity. + +Either way, this should not be allowed! This nonsense is topped by the large fees, high spreads, the high exchange rate and constant spamming. + +Use another platform for investing. +Evidence from the SEBI inquiry are slowly coming into public domain and it doesnt show these executives acted in good faith. The top executives of FT India including Sanjay Sapre, his wife Pradipta Sapre, Vivek Kudwa (Head of APAC at FT), his wife and mother, Aravind Vasudeo Sonde (Trustee at FTIL), Jayaram S Iyer (Listed director of Franklin Templeton India), Venkata Radhakrishnan (also director) all these people withdrew crores of funds from the debt funds, which were then locked for the public. + +Source: https://themorningcontext.com/business/franklin-templeton-top-brass-put-self-interest-first (Pay wall but worth it for those entagled in this mess) + +All of these people who are in the management of Franklin Templeton withdrew funds. On 23 Mar 2020, SEBI approved additional borrowing in these funds above the normal allowed limit. This was the sign of trouble in these funds, that the management of the fund would be aware of. The funds were then withdrawn by the management after 23rd March 2020. + +I dont want to speculate much, but prima facie these actions seem like text book insider trading (acting on non public information). This information was obtained by SEBI inquiry, but for some reason has not been in the entirely released to public. SEBI has also rejected RTI inquiries even from affected parties. One has to wonder on whose side SEBI is acting. + +Disclaimer: Affected in 2 of the wound up funds. While I believe the funds may eventually be recovered, if the management acted in bad faith, then action as per law must be taken. This rattles public trust and belief in the entire mutual fund industry, and also the larger financial industry. In other countries, bad actors have been prosecuted even if they held very high positions, as and when evidence of their misconduct has come to light. +I originally was quoted close to $700 for the annual policy and around $100 per service call. They are very high pressure! If you're going to sign up (which you shouldn't) you should know that every sales person is authorized to drop the price to $420 annual with a $65 service call fee (that's the price I needed up getting). Mind you I was quoted several various prices above that but the last sales man I dealt with seemed annoyed that I had another guy tell me he could do it for that price. + +I have tried to make 2 claims to date and both had been denied for spurious reasons. My refrigerator ice machine stopped producing ice and they said "that not a normal repair." What's a normal repair??? They also denied my hot water claim because they say they tried to call my contractor who supposedly never responded, so they simply denied the claim. My contractor never got a call. + +Even when I tried to cancel after both denial and get the money I initially paid, they made up excuses and said they couldn't do that for some nonsensical reasons, even though I was promised I could cancel at any time and get my money back. + +Buyer beware!!!! +Meta is down 19% after hours, this should be a lesson for everyone to stay away from very risky meme stocks like blue chips! + +My positions are only SAFE STOCKS like AMC or BBBY +*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low, and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.* + +Rather than doing a writeup of Friday, I think the time I have at the moment would be better spent going over some conceptual market mechanics. As I mentioned in my previous post that covered some light analysis of the week, my first glance was that Friday was a low conviction, low volume day where momentum traders/and volatility arbitraging HFT algos were skirmishing, and a slightly deeper look tells me that's probably the case for almost the entire day, up to the last minutes before close. + +There was a bit of a push toward the end of the day just to extract maximum interest charge pain. Keep in mind also that on Friday many of the retail brokerages still had issues with GME, and GME price was also protected from aggressive short-side attack due to the uptick rule. + +# Capital Flow, Liquid Float, and Price + +Ok, so let's go with a diagram I put together while thinking about how to best answer a ton of questions related to the mechanics behind triggering a squeeze. This is not very formal--just conceptual to help you think about the relationship between price, liquid free float, and capital required to move things around. + +[Capital Flow to Price Volatility Leverage Conceptual Diagram](https://u.teknik.io/DDa8Y.PNG) + +As you can see in the diagram, I figured it would be conceptually clearest to model the relationship kind of like a seesaw. + +On the left you can see that people selling tends to increase liquid float, moving the fulcrum of our conceptual seesaw to the right, except in the case of selling to people who are planning to buy and hold, which moves the fulcrum to the left. + +The lower the liquid free float, or the further to the left the fulcrum goes, the greater the likely impact of any particular capital flow (net selling or buying) on share price. Importantly, as the diagrams on the right half show, it's not a linear relationship. The closer the liquid free float comes to 0%, the faster the price volatility increases... theoretically approaching infinity as liquid free float approaches 0%. + +I find it sometimes help to think of the extreme case to help clarify. On the extremely liquid side, if you have all of the tens of millions of GME shares in play, dropping $10,000 in to buy shares probably doesn't even register on the ticker. On the other extreme, if what if there was only 1 share in play? That same $10,000 instantly prices GME at $10,000 a share--if you can even get the person holding it to sell! + +Since company value is estimated mark-to-market, GME would instantly become rated one of the most (if not the most) valuable companies in the world. This is in no way true, of course, as you could not subsequently sell all the rest of the shares at that price, but as far as a whole bunch of market mechanics and market participants are concerned, they would have to treat it that way until another transaction took place to re-price the company. + +So, in the grand scheme of things, in terms of difficulty of initiating what magnitude of a squeeze, the primary factor is locking up actively traded/liquid free float. Also important to keep in mind, locking up the float is only very gradually noticeable until you get very close to locking it all down, and you reach a point where suddenly each fraction of free float being locked up has parabolically greater impact on price volatility, reaching its limit where going from 2 actively traded shares to 1 actively traded share doubles price volatility sensitivity to capital flow by just locking up a single additional share. + +So simple, right? Actually, yes. However, don't mistake simple for easy (absolutely not the same thing in this case). + +# Market Games + +So, GME and other high short interest stocks are looked at in two ways by many market participants. On the one hand, you have normal investors and traders who don't really pay attention to it at all, and, if they do, they see it as a tool for price discovery that is otherwise neutral and dampens volatility (people tend to short stocks as price goes up, and cover shorts as price drops, so normal shorting activity is at least in theory supposed to help keep price stable). + +Then you have what I'll call market gamers. These are people who are willing to look through the veil of what various mechanics in the market are theoretically intended to accomplish, and just pay attention to what they actually do. There are a number of market mechanics that get really strange in extreme circumstance, and shorting is one of them, as using it to the extreme can absolutely crush a company's share price and actually harm the company badly. The counter to that is the increasing risk of a squeeze, which gets worse with extreme price volatility. + +Imagine it this way. Short interest in a stock is like the stock comes with a very strange feature--a closed wormhole portal into the brokerage account of the short position holder that, if slammed with a high enough day or week end price, blows open and sucks their account capital through, and possibly their broker's capital too, until they've patched it closed again with shares of stock they were short. + +That's not how you're supposed to look at it, but that's kind of how it actually works in practice. Most wall street types would find it appalling and wrong to think about it that way, but with Millenials and younger jumping in to the market we're talking about generations of people who grew up watching things like people doing [4 minute speed runs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSYY4k52GEs) through games intended to take[\~100 hrs](https://howlongtobeat.com/game?id=21614) to complete, using nothing but the mechanics of the game in ways entirely unintended by the developers. That's kind of what GME is like, from a certain point of view--a speed run through the market, blitzing and confusing everyone watching--throwing a ton of money at hedge funds' short interest until you blow a hole in their account and suck the capital out with the force of a black hole. Of course people are getting jumpy. + +# Battleground - Strategy and Tactics + +In a way, GME has turned into a battleground stock in the minds of many wall street people. Wall Street vs WSB is basically the way it's been depicted in the media, and a number of them seem to be taking it personally. + +With a battleground stock I find it helpful to think of it like a literal battleground, but with territory marked out by stock price. It helps you consider the impact on each 'side', what their motives are, and tactical and strategic implications. The reason I think this way is that once a stock becomes a battleground, the issue is no longer about price discovery--it's about proving a point or accomplishing a specific goal, which changes the dynamics of the trade. + +In my opinion, the retail strength/defensive line is at the $148 level as mentioned in my previous post analyzing the week. This is based on the majority of volume being in the runup from $30 to $148, which triggered the first squeeze. + +My guess is short-side strength hardens at the $350 level, based on that being the level at which the whale plugged the first squeeze. What this means is that you can expect some short-side people to actively short more at that level, possibly following through on momentum, as many of them want to prove a point that GME is a <$20 stock, as stated by a number of them on CNBC. $350 might seem like a low number given Friday's close, but remember that Friday trading was subject to the uptick rule, so the short effectively could not push back, and was instead fighting a rearguard action to bleed the long-side advance as much as possible, and lure them off their strength as much as possible. + +Say what? Is there a point to those analogies like that? Why yes, of course, because those analogies are very good mental models for what is going to happen in a short squeeze campaign. + +Remember, in the grand scheme of things, the goal of the long side is first and foremost to lock up liquid float. That means buying and holding shares. The question is.. how much will it cost you to move the needle on that, so to speak. the higher the price the short side can force you to pay to lock up float, the longer it'll take and the more expensive it will be. It is also like fighting far from your supply lines in that respect, in that there will be weaker hands mixed in far beyond hard support levels, such that quick pushes by the short side will shake them out, loosening float back up. + +How about on the long side? You want the short side to overextend themselves by shorting the price down on momentum, and hopefully get them to keep building up short interest at the lowest price at which they will do so. This means having to have the patience to see the price go as low as you can tolerate before you start losing your key support to despair. Why? Because it means you're buying the shares they throw at you at a lower price (costs less to move the needle on locking up liquid free float) and also that their short position is at a lower average price, lowering the price it will take to trigger a squeeze. + +The above is why, in some cases, you will see a sharp dip before the vertical move in a squeeze. You can essentially lure the short side into an ambush by falling back to lower and lower price points, which allows you to continue to lock up free float at ever cheaper prices while the short side thinks it is winning. Once you think you've accumulated enough to prevent covering without a parabolic price move, you spike the price back the other way and it's effectively game over. It can take some time to play out to its conclusion, but that is the essence of it. + +Let's make it concrete and put some numbers to it. let's say you need to lock up 10mio more shares for the squeeze (no idea, just using the number for easy math). If you can buy it all skirmishing at the $200 line, you'll pay $2bn to do it. If instead you've extended to the $300 line, you're going to pay $3bn. If you're an alpha-seeking whale, why pay 50% more to accomplish the same thing if you can get away with it? If you recall, I referenced seeing what I thought looked like this type of ticker behavior in my 3rd post. + +That being said, you might not mess around with those types of tactics at this point if you think you're already close to blowing up the next short interest holder. + +If you think you're close, then you're looking at the most efficient way to make the last tick at trading close as high as possible. + +That is very similar to the price action we saw on Friday at the end of the day, as mentioned earlier. If you think about it, if the goal is the have the price at/above a certain point at the end of the day, what is more efficient? Rush in the morning, then have to pay that higher price level for the whole day to maintain it, or wait until later in the day, as late as you think you can manage, and then push to that point at the very last tick? + +That, at least, is a very high level view of what you're trying to accomplish, but it gets very complicated in the details. If you're dueling with a good HFT algorithm, you can run into things like the price getting spiked to trigger halts to run out the clock (kind of like fouling someone in basketball), which gets harder in the final minutes of trading due to the wider LU/LD allowances, but still doable, even if you have to do it by sucking price level up (maybe to give you 5 mins to call your buddy at Blackrock to dump shares onto the ticker or something like that). + +Another thing to keep in mind. One of the reasons these things can roll on for a long time, is it might not be a one and done blowout (possibly on purpose). Think about it--if you can get people to keep piling short interest in--particularly for emotional reasons, you can ring the register as many times as they are willing to keep doing it to ultimately prove their point. Think of the Citron guy who re-shorted back in around what.. $90 or $100 I think? All because he wanted to make his point when he got blown out at the move off of $30. There are people piling back in right now. Who knows how many times they're willing to reload the short float. + +Ok, so this post is much longer than I originally intended anyway, but I think the diagram and some of the descriptions above should provide a good amount of food for thought and discussion. A number of people asked me why I said that price to squeeze was secondary at this point. If you haven't already figured out why, try to think about it, or maybe ask in comments and someone can help with a further discussion. + +A couple of final points: + +* Assuming the long-side people continue to lock up liquid float, remember that volatility can get greater in BOTH directions. This can mean that you get wiped out if you're somehow still trading GME on margin, as a quick price collapse can get you margin called even if the price quickly rebounds later. +* Greater volatility means you should mentally prepare for big dips as well as swings to the upside. Pre-market and after hours trading don't have circuit breakers, so it could get wild during those times too. +* Also with extreme volatility you end up possibly hitting halts more frequently. After the first frustrating day of this happening with GME I made myself a basic thinkorswim thinkscript study so I'd have a handy reference on whether it looked like this was going to happen. For those of you on ToS, use it on the 1 minute chart. Note that the LULD tolerances are different in first few minutes and toward the end of the day, so you'd have to adjust the parameters (or just keep it in mind). I use it with the step lines vs the default line. If price crosses the guard lines then you're getting close--if it crosses the circuit breaker line then you're about to be or already are getting halted. Here is the code: + +&#8203; + + input TrailingPeriodLength = 5; + input CircuitBreakerPercent = 10.0; + input GuardMultiplePercent = 70.0; + + def trlAvg = Average(close, TrailingPeriodLength); + + plot trailingAverage = trlAvg; + + plot upperStop = trlAvg * (1 + CircuitBreakerPercent / 100); + plot lowerStop = trlAvg * (1 - CircuitBreakerPercent / 100); + + plot upperRail = trlAvg * (1 + CircuitBreakerPercent / 100 * GuardMultiplePercent / 100); + plot lowerRail = trlAvg * (1 - CircuitBreakerPercent / 100 * GuardMultiplePercent / 100); + +Also, I got a comment in another post telling me to get a job lol. Actually I have one, so I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post from Monday forward. As I've mentioned in a few comments on prior posts, I actually am not active on social media normally. I just created this account to try to help people use this probably once-in-a-lifetime event and the intense interest it's generating to help people learn to become better investors and traders. I'll try to keep posting, but maybe not as regularly, and probably shorter (which I know some of you will be happy about :)). + +Hope you all have a good rest of the weekend. Good luck in the Market on Monday +# 🎮 Game Stop 🛑 Power to the Apes + +[You stay stonky, San Diago.](https://preview.redd.it/ki5gi2o2qk271.png?width=849&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d8d6340fdeaeb6a31770af0351c9a74b2c7338) + +# Moderator Promotions + +I am so very happy to announce that we have promoted two moderators to Full Permissions. This effectively puts them in the same moderator power level as u/rensole and u/redchessqueen99. While Reddit's hierarchy still remains the same, these two will now have access to Community Settings and Full Permissions, giving them the ability to adjust site settings, give moderator awards, add and remove mods, and much more, but overall will be seen as top authorities in the moderator team. + +* [u/Bye\_Triangle](https://www.reddit.com/u/Bye_Triangle/) + * BT been with us since [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/) days (he wrote the r/GME FAQ) and has been a critical mod at r/Superstonk. His steadfast work ethic, dedication to the community, strong skills and relationships with the other mods, and his ethical stature are all key aspects of why we feel this promotion is warranted. He has also been very active in our mod chat, and has helped to keep the peace and mediate disagreements for the betterment of all mods and the community at large. +* [u/Pinkcatsonacid](https://www.reddit.com/u/Pinkcatsonacid/) + * Pink has been dedicated to this subreddit since her addition as mod. She has become a beloved friend to many of us, and I think she brings invaluable insight and purpose to the mod team as well as the community. She has demonstrated her worth time and time again with tireless work ethic, dedication to the ape community, and close relationships that no doubt will strengthen them both as it emanates outward to the rest of us. + +[Apes Together Strong](https://preview.redd.it/uc3wcx5tok271.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bed62b2f34bf0426b372e99eafbcf9c8f5c4e4af) + +I think this could also mark an evolutionary transition for [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) in terms of moderator structuring and the scope of the sub itself. When [u/rensole](https://www.reddit.com/u/rensole/) and I were at [r/GME](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/), all mods had Full Permissions. This actually caused a lot of issues since some mods abused those permissions, and it effectively led to the migration from the sub. As a result, we have been very careful with who we give permissions to in an attempt to prevent catastrophe. It's worked so far, but we feel it is time to expand permissions to those deserving. + +u/Bye_Triangle and u/Pinkcatsonacid have tirelessly worked for the growth and integrity of r/Superstonk, and I have come to trust them and love them as fellow apes and friends in this journey. I have no qualms promoting them both to Full Permissions admin-level roles. We hope they can assist us heavily in acting as authorities for the sub and in leading the mod team and ape community as a whole into the future. This is very much deserved, so please make sure to give them serious congratulations. 💎💎💎 CONGRATULATIONS 💎💎💎 + +# MOASS Defense + +Over the past few months, as far back as my tenure at r/GME, there have been questions about the MOASS and how we would protect the sub in the event of a cataclysmic series of events. Ever since, we have been working with a special team of wrinkle-brained apes, and the mods, to develop a solution to this inevitable outcome. + +I am proud to announce that this solution is finally ready for implementation, and today it received a majority-vote from the r/Superstonk mod team, and is therefore approved and now being implemented. + +This plan will address the following concerns: + +1. How will we defend against the onslaught of new members from the MOASS? +2. How are we going to protect against incoming FUD attacks? +3. How do we discourage a sub split effort? +4. How do we allow those hurt by age/karma limits to remain included? +5. What has Red been alluding to for the past two months? + +To answer these concerns, we have worked diligently to come up with a multi-faceted plan that will no doubt secure the subreddit for the foreseen future. But first, I should introduce you to a little secret we mods have been keeping from you all... don't worry, we kept it secret for one particular and very important purpose: to study unsuspecting shills. + +[My cat on my laptop: \\"I'm in.\\"](https://preview.redd.it/7iomr9b6pk271.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=96e57d4a390575613e487e76ff99d68e41c03d36) + +P**lease read this message:** + +Greetings to all Ape-Kind! I’m u/grungromp. + +Strap in. We’ve got a lot of text to get through. + +Back in March, some Apes who have some brain wrinkles about behavior got together with some Apes who know how to use computers real good to try and develop a method of countering the invasion of nefarious actors trying to spread FUD to our community. We contacted the mods on r/gme to see if the project would be of worth and u/redchessqueen99 responded with emphatic support. Upon the Great Ape Migration to r/Superstonk, she invited us to continue our work with her direct involvement here. + +With the behind the scenes view we were given of the sub, we’ve been working over the past three months to put together a system of shill detection. We wanted this to be the proverbial headshot, and needed to make sure we limited collateral damage to Apes, while also not giving shills time to adapt. We sincerely wish we’d been able to be faster about it, but we were literally generating this project from the ground up, as (to our awareness) no one has ever attempted something like this before, or even had the need to. + +Before we describe the project, we’d like to offer you a bit of insight into what we’ve been seeing with the sub over the past week to establish the need, if it hasn’t already been obvious to the average Ape. + +The age and karma restrictions were originally put into place on r/superstonk on April 25. This prohibited comments from accounts under 30 days old, and posts from accounts under 60. We realized this meant that on May 25th, accounts that had been created on and around the day the restrictions were put in place would be able to start a massive FUD campaign. + +We were right. + +In the last week, the amount of accounts posting in the sub whom we have been able to identify as shills has increased at least 8 times. Where we were seeing 3 in 100 suspicious looking posts and accounts at times previously, over the past week that number has jumped to 24 in 100. + +With that in mind, we have decided that now is the moment to make our stand. + +We’d like to introduce you all to **Satori**. + +[Shorting shills since 2021.](https://preview.redd.it/072qgrnnck271.png?width=2084&format=png&auto=webp&s=791923e8726db74fc069a80ad400717cc306b1b0) + +One of the greatest advantages the hedge funds have had over us during this entire process is the ability to manipulate the market by using technology that we don’t have access to. High frequency trading and algorithms have put a pretty massive finger on the scales to tip the markets in their favor. That is why we feel that Satori is so important and could be such a boon to the Ape community. This evens the playing field, giving us the advantage of advanced technological analysis on our home court. In essence, this allows us to “Short the Shills.” They have no idea that this is coming. And they are not prepared. + +A few points of import about Satori and it’s capabilities + +* As with our analysis of GME as a stock, Satori functions almost entirely with publicly available information. Every possible publicly seen feature of Reddit is included to some degree. While we do utilize some privileged information from the Moderation team, that is the extent of our data gathering. We do not have access to private chats, ip addresses, or anything that is not available to public view. +* Satori is designed to analyze every single poster in r/Superstonk and generate a confidence interval of how likely they are to be a shill. The higher the score, the more likely the account is a shill. That information will be given to the Mods in order to inform their plans and decision making. It will not be public information. However, it is important to note that the system is designed to identify bad actors based on their actions. Just because an account hasn't posted anything shilly YET doesn't mean they never will. Therefore, a low “Shill Score™” is not considered a guarantee of Ape-ness. Do not assume that anyone posting has been granted an “all clear.” +* As is the case with all human activity, shilling isn’t a black and white issue. There is a chance of error on both ends, both shills that will go undetected as well as real Apes who are flagged as suspicious. It’s a truth that we’re aware of, and we’ve taken as much time as we could to be as accurate as possible. We have worked with the mod team and recommended several steps for mitigating this after implementation. + +[ Satori \(覚, \\"consciousness\\"\) in Japanese folklore are mind-reading monkey-like monsters \(\\"yōkai\\"\) said to dwell within the mountains of Hida and Mino. ](https://preview.redd.it/cyfxillrgk271.png?width=953&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1983c2fbefe8b7fb1d54224ea47687d86869ba8) + +* Satori is NOT designed to detect and identify negative sentiment toward GME. It is NOT designed to shut down criticism of the stock or DD. It is NOT simply a method to amplify any echo chamber effect. Continue to doubt, research, and criticize, as has been the mantra of our community since its inception. Our only aim is to contribute to making r/Superstonk a platform where Apes can freely discuss GME and share memes by counteracting bad actors who want to disrupt our community for nefarious purposes. +* We are aware that transparency and sharing of information is an essential part of the Ape community. However, we are not going to be revealing the specifics of our tech, nor the metrics which it uses to analyze the content of the sub. This information may come out eventually, likely post MOASS, but if we were to give specifics in order to make an appeal to the idea of transparency, we would be handing a manual to the shills on exactly how to behave to hide from our mind reading monkey machine. Please understand that Satori has been tested and vetted in hundreds of iterations to arrive at this point, and that the Mods have seen and approved of our methods and will keep oversight over every change and decision. +* We will leave it to u/redchessqueen99 and the mod group to describe the implementation process and how the technology will be utilized. But know that our team’s tits are jacked to levels unheard of before at the fact that we finally get to deploy our virtual psychic primate. + +[ \\"I see... I see... I see a lot of shadow marketing companies freaking out.\\" ](https://preview.redd.it/31z3goqzgk271.jpg?width=343&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b77ee83ae72fca8accdb3bd9ca0c96b4ccf1829) + +While we have yet to use Satori for sweeping changes on the sub, the mod team has already utilized it at various points. In smaller instances, Satori has already been used to see and identify FUD campaigns, target suspicious users, and plan specific moves and posts within the community. While those instances have been helpful, we recognize the potential for what Satori is capable of is so much greater, and now is our time to utilize it to it’s capacity. + +With all that new information presented to you, we do have one small request. This is brand new. There will be some bumps along the way. We’ve done our best to see and plan for every possible outcome, but we are aware that we will have missed some things. It will be a bit messy as we get things up and running. You have our promise that we will continue to refine our processes and do whatever is needed to ensure this community has the protection it deserves in the face of what we’re dealing with. + +We don’t mean to wax hyperbolic, but this may be one of the most powerful pieces of technology developed in history that deals specifically with community analysis and management. It’s been grassroots created by Apes, for Apes, and, to our knowledge, no one else has ever developed anything like this. Apes are now in possession of an asset that gives us autonomy and power that few other online communities have ever come close to harnessing. We’ve taken punch after punch from the hedgies; shills, infiltrators, propaganda, media manipulation, and market manipulation. Our team could not be more proud of the way this incredible community has taken every blow and got back to our hairy, prehensile feet. + +But now? We have a way to counter punch. Hard. And we will do it with a nuke dropped off our rocket as we leave Earth’s atmosphere on our way to the stars. + +In the words of Ryan Cohen: R.I.P. Dumb Asses + +Apes Strong Together + +Buy. Hodl. Vote. Fight. + +\--- + +**Note from** u/redchessqueen99\*\*:\*\* + +Satori was created and developed by a team that was largely kept private for over two months now. This team includes [u/catto\_del\_fatto](https://www.reddit.com/u/catto_del_fatto/), [u/grungromp](https://www.reddit.com/u/grungromp/), and [u/Captain-Fan](https://www.reddit.com/u/Captain-Fan/). I have personally worked with them since before the r/Superstonk migration from r/GME, and can say they have become some of my most trusted friends. + +u/catto_del_fatto was also added awhile back as a mod to incorporate moderator-level data into the information-gathering aspects of Satori, thus allowing the mod team to talk to him directly and help provide shill data for the system. Catto has officially accepted a full-time mod role with general moderator permissions, and we are looking forward to continuing this project and fostering a deeper relationship between the Satori team and the moderator team. + +TL;DR: r/Superstonk has an intelligence division. + +[Asta la vista, baby.](https://preview.redd.it/nechp7j0dk271.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd6ba796a7eef2dc785b89595ae5bdf855969ffd) + +# The Plan + +* **Increase karma and age filters** + * Posts : 60 days / 500 karma ---> 120 days / 2000 karma + * Accounts will need have been created earlier than February 1, 2021 + * Comments: 30 days / 250 karma ---> 60 days / 500 karma + * Accounts will need to have been created earlier than April 1, 2021 + * Note: Superstonk Migration was April 4, 2021 + * These limits will need to scale as time progresses; until the MOASS; while we hone and implement this program for total effectiveness. + * These limits will be implemented on June 1, 2021 sometime throughout the day. +* **Activate** ***Satori*** + * The immediate goal of Satori is to make sure that true apes are not locked out due to the increased restrictions. However, bans are an automated capability. + * "Mod-bots" will be added to the mod team and given approve and ban permissions, and then programmed to automate the approval or ban process via a generated list of users. + * u/Satori-Blue-Shell is currently the only mod-bot added and is actively Approving members + * APPROVALS - All users who were created after the Blip (end of January) and are not on the high risk list of users, with be added to the Approved Users in waves. By being added as Approved Users, they will bypass the karma and age filters. This will actively allow MORE true apes to participate in the sub. + * BANS - Mods will receive spreadsheets of high risk users, where they can approve or deny users, and then these lists will be implemented for automated implementation. +* **Mods will officially now be allowed to Approve users they trust in addition to Satori** + * Previously, we did not allow approving users because we suspected some foul play associated with that. Now, however, due to the sheer volume of approvals, we feel confident that we can add this to our arsenal of methods to protect apes in r/Superstonk. +* **Minimize Fallout** + * This plan prioritizes the positive aspects of Satori over the negative, and allows mod oversight on the bans process. Halting Satori is as simple as removing permissions from the mod-bot. + * Many of you who couldn't post due to age and karma limits, will now will be able to, once added to the Approved Users list. If you are not added, please be patient, as we are currently approving in waves. + * This will incentivize good behavior, because apes will not want to lose their approved status, or will want to earn it in the first place. Overall, we are essentially making it harder to post and comment on Superstonk, and then rewarding loyal apes with approvals that allow them to post or comment without any restrictions. + * Therefore, I am convinced this will make r/Superstonk a better experience for true apes, while making it a nightmare for the imposters and shills. + +*Please note that Satori does not have access to private chats, discords, or other private aspects of your account and it is currently limited to Reddit. We only scan publicly available content as well as what can be seen from a moderator perspective, which primarily includes removed posts and comments. We respect your privacy, and are merely utilizing the same levels of intel used against us to even the playing field.* + +[Shillpocalypse \(by u\/grungromp\)](https://preview.redd.it/broy2hwpck271.jpg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a4e50c469e37c5bb980c02927d5ed0bb10f0b761) + +With two new admin-level mods to help keep oversight, and with such an incredible software creation by the Satori team, we are poised to not only defend against the constant FUD, shills, and MOASS popularity, but also to remain a secure and reliable source of knowledge sharing - forever. + +I don't want to say we will never end up like r/wallstreetbets ... but we'll never end up like r/wallstreetbets. Satori is the first of many projects that utilize modern technology to advance our capabilities as a subreddit. I am excited for some of the other projects already in the pipeline. Stay tuned - this is definitely as exciting as it sounds. + +# Latest News You May Have Missed + +* [**Voting Information**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your_votes_are_important_the_time_to_vote_is_now/) \- You can **VOTE** with your GameStop shares for the upcoming shareholder meeting on June 9th. The final deadline to vote is June 8th. +* [**Official AMA Question Thread**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np7tmd/official_ama_question_thread_for_lucy_komisar_and/) for Lucy Komisar and Wes Christian **-** Wednesday June 2, 2021 at 4:30 PM Eastern +* New Awards: + * [**The Superstonk Award**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlz1ph/the_superstonk_award/) \- Can be gifted by any member for 500 coins (sub receives 100 coins) + * **Moderator Award:** [**Not-A-Cat Golden Bananya Award**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/noex1z/announcement_new_community_moderator_award/) \- Can be gifted only by moderators for 1800 sub bank coins, which gives the recipient Premium (700 coins per month, plus perks. + +# To the Moon! + +I hope you all had a great weekend and a great Memorial Day holiday. Let's pack our bananas and buckle up, because this rocket is starting to smell a LOT like rocket fuel. I still haven't sold a single share of $GME, and I plan to HODL until Andromeda. + +Let's also remember to be kind to each other. Ape not fight ape. Apes together strong! + +We're almost there. Let's go 🚀🚀🚀 + +[Art by YoungbloodAA](https://preview.redd.it/za5vhcbupk271.jpg?width=3840&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a34e38a843f573c5b4ec4b5d615567fa7b92f81b) + +TL;DR: u/pinkcatsonacid and u/Bye_Triangle are now Full Permissions mods. Karma and Age limits are going way up, but basically Shillnet is approving users in periodic waves based on behavior over the past few months. Approved users bypass karma/age limits entirely. Sub is secured for MOASS. Pack your not-a-cat bananyas. +The purpose of this thread is to dive into the most ethical and unethical companies. + +**Most:** + +***1- Costco*** + +\-compensates employees fairly compared to competitors. Provides a career, with competitors paying min wage + +\-high quality products (i.e. they take pride in ensuring they’re providing top quality gas) + +\-partners with ethical suppliers and respects their suppliers. Has worked towards improving how products are sourced + +\-invested large amount of money into climate research + +\-etc + +Source: [https://querysprout.com/is-costco-ethical/](https://querysprout.com/is-costco-ethical/) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). Last ban length: 524288 days + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM). +But I am scared. And I will still have enough cash to last me 6months after this. You guys - say something to make me brave. Was raised to stay away from stock market so this is hard. +It's been good for a few years, but now I'm tired of this. + +Properties that need $30k in repairs with rents that will barely afford the mortgage. Agents telling me how getting $1300 a month on a $200k house that's 50 years old is somehow a good deal. Idiots buying vacant properties hoping to sell it at a higher price to an even bigger idiot (and sometimes succeeding!) A guy I went to college with who wrote a book and is promoting it after buying a single duplex. And now he's putting out youtube videos of how to analyze deals. + +I am simply tired of this. Too much dumb money chasing too little return. + +I'll be on the sidelines for the next year or two checking in here and there. When everyone else realizes they aren't making any money, me and the rest of us will be choosing from the buffet line. + +But for now, I'm just going to take some time off and look at other places to park my capital. + **TL;DR -** **Hedgies are up to the same ol' same ol' bullsh\*t. Here's some FINRA literature to keep you entertained while waiting for lift off.** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +WHAT THE F\*CK IS UP, APES!? + +Once again, I've been dabblin' in the data. Even after months of this sh\*t, I'm still pleasantly surprised when I find more fecal matter which further confirms my rock-hard bias. In fact, there's only one thing that jacks-my-atobitts even more than being right... + +...and that's jacking-the-atobitts of all the apes within this **community.** + +What can I say? I'm a selfless dude. + +*\*sets chip on shoulder\** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +Now then, I want you to toss those double **FUD**ge brownies you've been snacking on and start power-chugging this DD smoothie. I know there are only about 17 of you out there that will actually read this thing word-for-word so I won't even bother asking you to read the 40 page prequel of HOC [I](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvk5dv/a_house_of_cards_part_1/) , [II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwaxv/house_of_cards_part_2/) , [III](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlwqyv/house_of_cards_part_3/). + +For those of you that *DID* read the HOC series, you may remember I talked about the delayed reporting that FINRA has when it comes to reporting misconduct among the hedgef\*cks. Here's a wee quote from the HOC II: + +https://preview.redd.it/m2ucq4psnhc71.jpg?width=841&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b2dc8855a00379f3482bac0e015278568cd7aea + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +Now, I'm pretty damn sure I beat this horse into the ground, but just to make sure, I'll say it once again.... + +FINRA is very inconsistent when it comes to timely filings. Issues can be brought to their attention YEARS before they issue fines, or they can be fined within the same month & year in which the violation occurred. But hey, that's FINRA... + +Long story short, I still use [https://brokercheck.finra.org/](https://brokercheck.finra.org) to check the records on most of the DTC's participants. I literally do this for a few minutes each day to see if Citadel & friends have any more violations for misquoting the bid/ask prices on their exchange, or if Goldman Sachs is still smashing that F3 key to activate their auto-locate feature (where my HOC III fans at?). + +Needless to say, I found more fecal matter. + +***I ain't hear no bell*** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +**CHAPTER 1: CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS** + +Let's start off with a lil' finger bang.. + +We've all read the recent rule changes from the DTC regarding daily monitoring of participant activity. This was detailed extensively in [SR-DTC-2021-003](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rule-filings/2021/DTC/SR-DTC-2021-003-Approval-Notice.pdf). Keep in mind, Dr. T stated this was just a formality because the DTC has been monitoring participant activity daily for quite some time. However, I'm now seeing more frequent violations for failing to properly maintain sufficient capital within customer accounts. Historically, these are pretty infrequent citations so I can't help but think some of the new rule changes may be having an effect. + +You've gotta look closely to see what's happening... + +Take a look at Wells Fargo... + +[https:\/\/files.brokercheck.finra.org\/firm\/firm\_126292.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/kwg7hhgrshc71.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=362bd32f12625bc681b2de1992a36aceb90438a3) + +On **6/11/2021**, FINRA resolved Wells Fargo's fine for violating [CME Rule 971 A.1](https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/NYMEX/1/9.pdf) which relates to the funds set aside within a customer's account (particularly with swaps/futures). + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/content\/dam\/cmegroup\/rulebook\/NYMEX\/1\/9.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/3f0pdixruhc71.jpg?width=987&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d9f6e4da13a68142236e40137f0ca921f7847f4c) + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +I probably wouldn't think anything about this if it were the only violation I stumbled upon.... but what's interesting is that Bank of America got slapped with the same f\*cking [violation](https://files.brokercheck.finra.org/firm/firm_283942.pdf) on the same f\*cking date... **6/11/2021...** + +[https:\/\/files.brokercheck.finra.org\/firm\/firm\_283942.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/m8goavaqvhc71.jpg?width=971&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b41c7b62ac2230ec2144a2629d56943ec406f0a) + +I started looking into the docket number for this case and noticed it was within the same sequence as the citation for Wells Fargo.. + +Bank of America docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**02....** + +Wells Fargo docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**05....** + +So... why not? I pulled a quick google search for CBOT 21-CH-21**01**... + +**BOOM.** Citigroup. + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/notices\/clearing\/2021\/03\/21-CH-2101.html](https://preview.redd.it/m1qbbe1lzhc71.jpg?width=795&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=175528c36a0be435c294cea6a5b175bb5bbaa5ee) + +CME 970A is another requirement for minimum capital: + +[https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/content\/dam\/cmegroup\/rulebook\/NYMEX\/1\/9.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/zh340h151ic71.jpg?width=1140&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=28df2ed118133787a847eb16491f636283beebc7) + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +**How deep does this rabbit hole go?** + +Citigroup | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**01.... 3/19/2021** + +Bank of America | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**02.... 6/11/2021** + +ADM Investor Services, INC | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**03.... 6/11/2021** + +Mizuho Securities | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**04.... 6/11/2021** + +Wells Fargo | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**05.... 6/11/2021** + +ABN Amro Clearing | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**06.... 6/11/2021** + +Phillip Capital, INC | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**07.... 6/11/2021** + +Santander Investment Securities, INC | docket # CBOT 21-CH-21**08.... 6/11/2021** + +**8 citations** issued in 2021 and 7 of them occurred during June. By changing **21-CH** to **20-CH** and then following the same pattern, I was able to look backwards through 2017 (filing gets weird w/ dates prior to that). Here's what I found: + +*Citations for Underfunded Capital by year:* + +2017: 7 citations (full year) + +2018: 8 citations (full year) + +2019: 7 citations (full year) + +2020: 13 citations (full year) + +2021: **8 citations (half year)** + +Sometimes there will be a citation that's listed as 19-CH-1908, but actually filed in January 2020. Most of them are split randomly throughout the year, but some are done in chunks (typically June / August). This leads me to believe the actual *date of occurrence* happens within 4 - 6 weeks of the citation being filed. I could be wrong, but the filings appear to be done this way. + +Therefore, we can start to deduce what the actual f\*ck is happening here. From 2017 through 2019, the average annual citation is between 7 and 8. Suddenly, we've jumped almost 100% during 2020 and 2021 is currently on track to surpass it. Either FINRA is getting much better at identifying underfunded capital accounts, or the number of underfunded capital accounts is increasing. Obviously, we need to rule out that a bunch of new entities haven't been added to FINRA's "audit list", but the citations seem to generally reference the same folks. + +All aboard the struggle bus. + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +**CHAPTER 2: SHORT SALES** + +I had the pleasure of reading one of the most f\*cked up short sale violations this past week. Typically, FINRA will break short sale violations into different buckets. If you mark a sale as long when it was short, that's a specific violation. Likewise, if you fail to locate a borrow, that's another violation. However, FINRA issued a citation on **5/24/2021** to Wolverine Execution Services for one of the most blatantly obvious f\*ck-ups I've ever read. This actually *occurred* for 3 F\*CKING YEARS between May 2016 and March 2019.... Once again, good job FINRA on the timely filings. Check it out: + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/files.brokercheck.finra.org\/firm\/firm\_120719.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/o32lh1dpfic71.jpg?width=542&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=595a6436f3ac2471f58cc0ba190dafc2dc94b2cb) + +LOL + +No sh\*t... you can't make this up.... + +So let me get this straight..... for 3 years, Wolverine: + +1. "inaccurately" marked nearly 19,000 transactions as long instead of short.. not *accidentally*\- INACCURATELY... +2. sold shares they didn't have... +3. didn't have the paperwork for almost 560,000 locate requirements... +4. failed to meet the reporting obligations for order data within the audit trail system on 40% of sampled trades.... +5. AND failed to provide proper order event information in 19% of their sampled trades... + +Did I already say LOL ? + +But wait... it gets better.... The VERY NEXT violation is literally the same as this one, but with new numbers and new bed-time stories: + +https://preview.redd.it/ebg9h52lhic71.jpg?width=649&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d05beb1f830b311f42520609c438eb74c5d46aa2 + +[LOLLOLLOLLOL](https://preview.redd.it/m6tumk43iic71.png?width=236&format=png&auto=webp&s=49cbc793f3f112edfb55ecac3880bc830565b306) + +Yeah, you read that right.... Wolverine relied on their clients to provide proof of borrowing before letting them perform a short sale. If they didn't upload the proper documentation, the sale wouldn't occur. + +"No one ever said we had to KEEP that paperwork, though...." + +...f\*cking dipsh\*ts.... + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**DIAMOND.F\*CKING.HANDS** +From piggy banks to interplanetary vaults, tear through progressive security-related milestones and join the newest community-driven frictionless yield protocol. UltraSafe, the next big BSC reflection token, has JUST LAUNCHED with a Solidity audit already completed and an uber-impressive professional-grade website. + +&#x200B; + +The past months have seen a massive increase in the number of coins on the Binance Smart Chain. Despite this explosion, it is evident that the majority of these tokens represent, at best, a mediocre investment opportunity--if they do not outright rug or soft rug, they often fail to deliver on their promises of increasing the wealth of their hodlers. + +&#x200B; + +The space is still plagued by obvious hazards like rugpulls, minting exploits, and a myriad of other ways that contract creators seek to take advantage of unaware investors. However, even beyond this a minority of "safe" tokens do not seek to create a hospitable environment that fosters investor profit. These problems are often more subtle, and sometimes not even the creator is aware of them. This could be due to poorly planned tokenomics, issues with sniping bots, uncooperative whales, and more generally a failure to understand how to cultivate and nurture legitimacy, professionality, and community-driven hype. + +&#x200B; + +Investors deserve better and they should demand better. + +&#x200B; + + UltraSafe was inspired by this ideal: creating a token dedicated to long term stability and rapidly increasing the wealth of its holders. The team has addressed the major issues plaguing the space using a fee that is redistributed to both enrich holders and stabilize the liquidity. It brings with it a lighthearted and community-centered atmosphere as well, providing progressive and dynamic milestones in a roadmap-like format that are associated with certain events and giveaways. + +&#x200B; + +For example, at 25,000 holders, the “Mariana Ultramax Vault” milestone is unlocked, bringing with it flash mobs, plane/billboard banners, giveaways, and more. + +&#x200B; + +4% of each transaction is redirected to holders as a classic reflection mechanism. + +4% of each transaction is added into the liquidity pool, creating an ever-increasing price floor and continuously decreasing the price impact of sells. + +&#x200B; + +Of course, a token alone is not sufficient to guarantee long term growth. In this rapidly moving space the team needs to constantly deliver. Fortunately the UltraSafe developers intend to, and already have a professional website, roadmap of dynamic milestones, and audit. + +&#x200B; + +It has been a while since I have seen a token with so much professionalism, and one where the team is clearly thinking of the average investor. Of course, you should always DYOR, but in my mind this is a no brainer: UltraSafe is an ultra safu investment, and will moon in the coming days and weeks. + +&#x200B; + +Website: [ultrasafe.finance](https://ultrasafe.finance) + +Telegram: [t.me/UltraSafeOfficial](https://t.me/UltraSafeOfficial) +The US is facing massive debt and a high central bank balance sheet as a result of massive government stimulus during Covid. + +But China, with even more people, has shut down on several more occasions. + +I would assume their government is providing some form of benefit, similar to the US, but how has this not broken their system/economy? +The big bull of the stock market, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, passed away at the age of 62. The total net worth of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is around 40 thousand crores. Let us tell here that the most significant stake in his Akasa Air belongs to his wife, Rekha Jhunjhunwala. read more https://www.worldopress.com/post/indian-share-market-king-rakesh-jhunjhunwala-passed-away-and-breathed-his-last-at-the-age-of-62 +All the related news on Chinese media has been taken down (articles on WeChat, Weibo, Southeast China Post, etc.). But the story now forever lives on the ethereum blockchain at block height 6007493. If anything, THIS is decentralization and censorship resistance. + +Etherscan Transaction: [https://etherscan.io/tx/0xb1ed364e4333aae1da4a901d5231244ba6a35f9421d4607f7cb90d60bf45578a](https://etherscan.io/tx/0xb1ed364e4333aae1da4a901d5231244ba6a35f9421d4607f7cb90d60bf45578a) + +Report on Futurism: [https://futurism.com/unsafe-vaccines-china-blockchain/](https://futurism.com/unsafe-vaccines-china-blockchain/) +My dad is getting up there in years and has health and mobility issues. + +I was able to buy him and I round trip first class plane tickets for our upcoming trip. + +It’s a complete surprise and I’m going to try to wait until we board the plane to tell him we are in first class. He’s never flown anything but economy in his entire life. + +Just wanted to share some of the fun and cool things that come with FI and fatfire + +He offered to pay for his Economy seat but I can tell him “it’s on me because I wouldn’t be here without you” and I’m super proud I can do that. + +I really love my dad and I’m hoping he has another 20+ years in him. +TLDR; **Melvin and gang hasn't covered shit. They've been illegally "closing out" their short positions and if we hold they will 100% get fucked. There is far more nefarious shit at play.** + +So this morning I saw the S3 and Ortex data both report significant covering of short positions for GME. This absolutely threw me for a loop because Friday morning they reported above ~120% short interest still. I could not for the life of me figure out how someone could close >50% of short positions on such a tightly held stock in ONE day with very little trading volume in the week. This got me digging around to figure out what's up. + +I started by looking into GME failed to delivers (i.e. short sellers not able to cover their position on a stock) for the first half of January and I was shocked to find that just in the first 15 days of Jan, GME had ~1.2 MILLION failed to delivers. This is before most of wsb or mainstream began buying. + +What was interesting though, is that of that ~1.2million, ~700K shares were covered in chunks throughout the two week period. I dug further back into the SEC failed to deliver reports for GME and saw that pattern extending back months. It seemed almost as if the short positions were just being kicked down the road. + +Having spent some time looking at the pattern, it's clear a large amount of failed to delivers come in, then a small chunk of coverage, then another large amount, and so on. To me this looked shady af so I looking into reasons that could cause that and discovered this article: https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf + +In it, a specific section is eerily similar to what we've experienced with GME: + +"Assuming that XYZ (e.g. GME) is a hard to borrow security (e.g. apes holding strong), and that Trader A (Melvin), or its broker-dealer, is unable (apes again) to borrow shares to make delivery on the short sale of actual shares, the short sale may result in a fail to deliver position at Trader A’s clearing firm. Rather than paying the borrowing fee on the shares to make delivery, or unwinding the position by purchasing the shares in the market, Trader A might next enter into a trade that gives the appearance of satisfying the broker-dealer’s close-out requirement, but in reality allows Trader A to maintain its short position without ever delivering on the short sale. Most often, this is done through the use of a buy-write trade, but may also be done as a married put and may incorporate the use of short term FLEX options. These trades are commonly referred to as “reset transactions,” in that they have the effect of resetting the time that the broker-dealer must purchase or borrow the stock to close-out a fail. The transactions could be designed solely to give the appearance of delivering the shares, when in reality the trader has no intention of meeting his delivery obligations. Such transactions were alleged by the Commission to be sham transactions in recent enforcement cases. Such transactions between traders or any market participants have also been found to constitute a violation of a clearing firm’s responsibility to close out a failure to deliver." + +It's almost like a play by play of what we've seen (in combination with the ladder attacks). My guess is we'll find out more when the failed to deliver report for the second half of Jan comes out on the 17th. + +I 100% think that Melvin is committing massive securities fraud. In fact, I would bet all my money on it - oh wait, I did 96 GME @ 290. + +I am now holding on principle to see these fucks fail. + +More DD: https://www.reddit.com/user/bcRIPster/comments/labq6u/follow_the_crumbs_gme_exposed_the_meta https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm + +Not a financial adviser, I eat paint chips for dinner + +EDIT: Ok, so I've been reading some comments and I wanted to clear a couple things up: + +* The failed to deliver number is reported cumulatively. So if you sum everything for the Jan time period it'd come out incorrectly as 5 million. What I'm doing is summing all the *debits* to get an aggregate view of all the failed to delivers in the time range. This process is validated and discussed in other /r/wsb posts + +* I know ETF's could have been redeemed by some MM's to gather up GME stock. However I'm not convinced there is enough GME held in ETF's to be a significant factor. Someone in the comments reported this amount to be about ~10M. We would know if a bunch of ETF's rebalanced and dumped GME. + +* My number for the Ortex short interest was incorrect, I got mixed around when I wrote this initially. The short interest reported by Ortex on Friday morning was ~80%. The 120 figure for S3 was correct. + +* Please checkout the linked DD - it goes into much more detail and covers things far better than I can. + +* Share this post and the related DD. We need to hold wall street accountable if this is true and I think that starts by spreading the word. + +* I'm going to continue to dig into this tonight / tomorrow. Look forward to a new post tomorrow evening. + + +If I take an L to 0, I take an L to 0. I don't invest what I can't lose. But you can bet your ass I'll be holding till this blows open. + +WE LIKE THE STOCK 💎🖐️ +Honestly guys. + +I'm not some boomer and I understand there is space within the value investing field for technology stocks, but on the front fucking page we have analyses for AAPL and AMZN, two of **the biggest technology stocks** currently that are **massively over-priced** and have been massively over-priced since before the ridiculous stimulus benefits they've received since the start of COVID. + +Please understand, I am not specifically short AAPL or AMZN. I know and will freely say these are strong, respectable companies with long, profitable futures ahead of them. But, are we seriously so lazy that *these* are the stocks that get voted to the front page? Are any of you upvoting these actually value investors? + +Take some of the most respected value investors out there. Warren Buffet, Mike Burry, Seth Klarman, you name it. These guys wouldn't touch these companies with 10,000-foot poles. Warren Buffet listened to his partner and bought into AAPL at a time where its P/E was mid single digits and it was hammered by negative news following poor tech releases. Mike Burry has stated that his *entire investment philosophy* is based around the concept "margin of safety". Seth Klarman? He wrote a fucking book titled "Margin of Safety". + +In no god damn way shape or form do AMZN or AAPL offer *any* margin of safety. Their future earnings are speculative, and I admit they almost certainly will increase, but they certainly are not reflected reasonably in either of their price points. + +Can we please reserve this subreddit for analyses and discussions on stocks and methods for finding stocks that are true value investment nuggets? Like GME 1.5 years ago. Like any number of small cap/mid cap stocks that are waiting to be found. Honestly. A subreddit dedicated to value investing and two of the top posts are about 2 of the biggest companies that have every existed and have insane valuations. + +Sorry for apparent disrespect /u/0toHeroInvesting, your analyses were very thorough, but, I feel this subreddit can do better. + +For the record, I have posted on my alternate account and will post on this one as I get more Karma so that I can make this my strict investing-only Reddit account. +So I currently have 150k and I'm 24. Should I buy VDHG and get 3% compounded returns and just go to prison for a few decades and get food and activities paid for me while my money compounds, then come out and retire? + +I've been imagining this and it doesn't sound too bad. + +(VDHG is a joke lol, I'd allocate more to bonds since 10% bonds is too risky as per AusFinance advice) +Hey everyone! Great to be here and I'm looking forward to spending an hour chatting. I'll do my best to answer anything I'm able to - I've been working in markets for a long time now (17 years!) and have been pushing for regulatory reforms since 2012 when I testified before the Senate Banking Committee. We recently launched an effort to build a grassroots advocacy campaign at [we-the-investors.org](http://we-the-investors.org) and I'm excited for the opportunity to help retail advocate on its own behalf. +I’ve been doing STR for a couple of years and it’s still hard to believe how low maintenance and how profitable it is. Makes me wonder why more people aren’t doing it. + +For example, I have a 4 bedroom 3 bathroom property that I paid $342k for. It’s in a smallish city (180k population) on the east coast. + +There are some Airbnb related expenses like $1200 a month on a housekeeper. Obviously I pay the utilities plus the cleaning supplies. + +Mortgage, insurance and taxes are about $2k a month. + +My total costs are about $4k a month, all in, or $48k a year. + +It generated $80k in revenue last year and is on track to do $90k this year. 2019 was a partial. + +It is incredibly profitable for what it is. + +I should also mention that it was set up as fully remote. I have not been at the property for 2 years since it was launched. Messaging is mostly automated so we’re talking about 15 minutes of work per day per property. + +I’ve been doing it for 2+ years but I am still waiting for the catch, for the “gotcha” in all of it. + +Update: + +Thanks to this discussion it’s becoming clearer why more people aren’t doing Airbnb. It invokes a lot of negative emotions. Whether or not those are warranted or really relevant when talking about an investment is a whole other story. +Cathie Wood is a living, breathing meme IMHO, and I can’t believe I held on even this long. She’s over-invested in now-illiquid companies, and every few days she makes a new pronouncement to keep herself in the headlines, but then she trades in entirely different directions. Buys Z, sells Z. No wonder outflows are accelerating. I give her another 6 months before it’s down 80%+ for the 18 months preceding. Sorry, rant over. + +P.S., If you’re in ARKs, get out now!! +There’s only one directive no matter what, and that’s to carry on hodling. + +That’s not to say that the bias confirmation helps, and it’s very educational and entertaining along the way; but being content and comfortable just patiently waiting is the norm and standard response to anything other than the MOASS. + + +**Edit 1:** I never thought I’d actually have to edit a post to thank kind internet strangers for their awards, and say “well this blew up” and “RIP inbox”. I feel like a true Redditor now. I can feel the love. + +Please, if you’re wanting to give paid awards to this post, instead buy some more (fractional) GME or donate to your favourite charity. + +**Edit 2:** So, some bot just messaged me to say I’ve made it to the front page of Reddit. Not sure how to take this news. Slightly overwhelmed and feeling the love fellow apes. + +I’m thankful to have made a connection with so many of you with my post. It just shows how many of us “zen apes” are genuinely out there. +I know SCHD is one of the sweethearts of this sub and I do like its combination of dividends and growth. However, if you were to split your money 50/50 between SCHG & QYLD you would get roughly the same growth and more than double the dividend yield when looking at the past 5years’ performance. + +SCHD on its own pays less than 3% yield and has had 87% growth over the last 5 years. So an average year will get you ~20% return (17% growth + 3% dividend) + +SCHG has had 169% growth over 5 years, the dividend is minimal so I won’t include it. QYLD pays around 12% dividend, the growth over 5 years has been minimal so I won’t include that either. Splitting your money 50/50 between the two you get an average return of ~23% (17% growth + 6% dividend) + +Based on the last 5 years, you would have increased your average annual return by 3%. Your growth would have stayed the same (17% per year) but you double your dividend yield from 3% to 6% overall. +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** + +Edit: Credit for the correlation tables to u/phalanxhydra + +Edit 2: I am retarded. It's u/Ivorypetal. + +# Introduction + +Apes, because of the sheer amount of information in this post and because I wanted to get it to you at the beginning of this week because of earnings and the meeting, this post will not have the usual funny intro and memes. + +Usually, my DDs are done completely by me with maybe some inspiration from a few apes or a section/link from an ape or two. This one is not that. This DD is an orgy. Apes, I have gathered an army. A fucking army of quant apes. They have been gracious enough to team up and answer the questions that I posed in my previous post and..... I am astonished at what they did. Seriously, I didn't expect this in my wildest dreams. Quant apes, I am eternally grateful for what you've done and I know that this sub is too. Again, this just shows how many extremely smart apes we have in this fight. This is going to be by far my most data-driven DD of all time. + +Many of you have probably seen the spoilers that I gave in my request for data that this DD would be about using correlations, models, and data to get to an extremely high level of certainty that shorts have indeed not covered by analyzing GME as compared to the other meme stocks and some other indicators as well. This was inspired by the pretty obvious fact that they all have traded in very similar patterns since around December. I also noticed that they all seemed to have some sort of FTD cycle component to them as well. I really drew the line when all of these stocks started this upward momentum in the past week - it was just too much of a coincidence for there not to be a relationship. A short squeeze is rare. Stocks following the same trading pattern is weird. A stock squeezing two times in less than a year is weird. A stock trading at over 4x it's book value consistently for months is weird. But 6 stocks doing all of those things simultaneously is..... ASININE. Some might call it improbable, but I think we all know what it is. This DD will use data, a shit ton of it, to give us the closest proof next to actually seeing HFs positions that they have indeed not covered..... ENJOY + +**Roadmap** + +In this DD, I will discuss why the meme stock craze is not a just a bunch of retail traders pumping up stocks. Instead, it is the product of the greatest shorting fail in the market of all time that was made possible by easy money policies and apes' uncanny ability to buy and hold. Next, I will discuss the statistical significance and origin of the FTD cycle. Finally, I will give you a random dump of DD at the end of my thoughts. + +# Part 1: A data driven approach to the meme stock craze + +**A visualization of what you already knew** + +As many of you know from some of my previous posts, my thesis is that the “meme stocks” are all related. This was based on observations that the charts looked similar from December to now in terms of price action and volume. The quant apes did an excellent job of visualizing this. Below is a visualization of the meme stocks compared to cryptos and boomer stocks for reference. The parameters are volatility and volume. + +https://preview.redd.it/sfs0rlgprt371.png?width=1626&format=png&auto=webp&s=f28599498018462de65d04a0663206ff4d64a623 + +https://preview.redd.it/ckanpxbqrt371.png?width=1652&format=png&auto=webp&s=553e7ceae6eddd1a387febf88e0e1a3ffe03e117 + +[\(Credit for above three charts to u\/Ivorypetal\) ](https://preview.redd.it/6wb6ze0rrt371.png?width=1624&format=png&auto=webp&s=46a16bda7b06735d23ed2b6cb9def15472d53703) + +**A visualization of what you already assumed** + +This is a visualization of what we already know but haven't been able prove: the stocks are related. Looks like there’s a relation, right? How can we be sure? If you took a college or high school statistics course, you probably know that there are certain tests you can run to determine if inputs are correlated, the degree of the correlation, the certainty, and the statistical significance. Below, the quant apes used a statistical test (I won’t explain it because if you aren’t familiar with statistics it’ll take too long to explain, but this is not a guess, it uses an equation to determine the level of correlation, so it is extremely accurate) to determine the correlation of GME to other meme stocks and the VIX. I put GME in red because it’s all we care about right now. The top is a comparison of these stocks entire data (i.e. all time), while the bottom compares them in the last year: + +https://preview.redd.it/92ks0y4trt371.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=03932694664e27f9dbfde8042d03f3be181a2559 + +[\(Credit to u\/phalanxhydra\)](https://preview.redd.it/hbahq3rtrt371.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=328a0b47ad63faae068e12c847dacdc1df2ef9bb) + +As you can see, the difference between all time and the last year is striking. The above decimals are called correlation coefficients. They go up to 1 (which means they are identically correlated). Anything above 0.7 is considered a strong correlation. As you can see all of them except for NAKD and NOK have a strong correlation to GME. What really struck me was the VIX. Because the market usually goes down when the VIX goes up, the fact that GME and the VIX have such a strong correlation in the past year is extremely important for our thesis that HFs are actively acting against it. + +**OTC Data** + +The chart below takes the OTC data from FINRA and plots it for each of the meme stocks. Notice how they all seem to follow a pattern of spiking every few weeks (FTD cycle) except for the blue one. The blue one is not a meme stock, it's Apple. I used Apple as a reference security so you can contrast how weird this is. Sadly, we don't have FINRA data before 2019, so it's difficult to analyze this in terms of when it started, but you can definitely see a related pattern of abnormality: + +[\(Credit to all of the quant apes who made this customizable program that allowed me to do this\)](https://preview.redd.it/psbp9arwrt371.png?width=2766&format=png&auto=webp&s=1286b2fb12123ba6bf01eaf408917a7f47915530) + +&#x200B; + +**How common are squeezes?** + +Squeezes are rare. Extremely rare. Whether you think the January price run up was a short squeeze, a gamma squeeze, or just a big price increase does not matter because, in asking the quant apes to find the exact number of short squeezes that have occurred in the stock market, I gave them VERY broad parameters. The parameters I gave them were: any stock that has doubled in price within a week. Because of this, this is undoubtedly a gross overestimate of the number of short squeezes in the history of the market (i.e. some little known penny stock getting FDA approval and going 4x overnight). The numbers that they found show us just how rare a short squeeze is, and remember, even this is an overestimate, so they’re probably even rarer. The quant apes used the major exchanges NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. Here are the results: + +[\(Credit to u\/jyzaya\) ](https://preview.redd.it/o1rcuupyrt371.png?width=2032&format=png&auto=webp&s=a16b8200dde9417a18b25c4eed0e353557879555) + +If you can't understand that data, here's the point: they are rare, even with parameters that purposefully overestimate it. They are so rare that you could call them an anomaly because that's what they are. Remember that’s a purposeful overestimate that allows small stocks getting good news, IPOs, etc. to be considered. So yes, short squeezes are rare. Multiple squeezes following the same pattern and all squeezing at the exact same time? Some might call it improbable, but we all know what we call it. + +**My take** + +So, you’ve seen the data. These stocks are correlated. Does a correlation mean that there is some orchestration going on or that something is forcing them to move in concert? No. It means that they typically move in the same direction, reason unknown. A statistical test can’t tell us the reason for the correlation, it can just tell us the correlation. I think I know the reason. + +What I think many people, especially the media, take for granted is just how weird January was. As you now know from above, short squeezes are rare. Stocks correlating is weird. Stocks correlating for months is weird. Stocks squeezing at the same time is weird. Stocks doing all of those things at the same time is unheard of. The weird thing about January is that brokers, all of them, simultaneously restricted the buying of all of these stocks. Because liquidity works both ways (buy and sell), if they really had liquidity issues, they would’ve stopped buying and selling. Also, does it make any sense that every single broker would have liquidity issues at the exact same time during the times of the lowest interest rates ever and an easing of banking restrictions? No. None of that makes sense. My thesis is that all of these stocks are related and the data backs that up. I believe that the brokerages saw that these stocks posed a SYSTEMIC risk because of how exposed major market makers and HFs were on the short side. Why else would they all simultaneously ban only buying? + +To add even further to that, many brokerages have banned the shorting of these stocks (months after the squeeze). Even more is all of the shill activity of people messaging us saying “I’ll pay you to write something bad about GME.” Moreover, the brokerages must have seen that retail, and now the rest of the market, was piling on buying orders and that eventually, some of the most important institutions could go bankrupt and cause an economic crisis. So what did they do? They restricted all buying. Even if every single ape hodled, the price would still be able to go down significantly due to shorting and institutional selling. So yes, they forced it to go down. Now, what was that systemic risk I was talking about? What exactly did the HFs do? As most of you know, I was one of the apes that started the talk of FTD cycles and found many of the rules behind it. The FTD cycle has been the only thing that we’ve been able to consistently predict (well that and the media being retarded but I digress). IMO, the FTD cycle is our clue into what the HFs did to cause a systemic problem. The FTD cycle has been increasing exponentially, which leads me to believe that the systemic risk has only gotten worse, and I think I’ve discovered it’s origins… + +# PART 2: The statistical significance and origins of the FTD cycle + +Now that I’ve left you with that cliff hanger and probably a half chub, it’s time to take an extremely in-depth dive into the FTD cycle. First, I will be demonstrating the statistical significance of the FTD cycle, so that we know it’s not just a fluke. Next, I will discuss the origins of the FTD cycle. Finally, I will discuss what I think it all means. + +First, let's start with a brief summary and update on the FTD cycle. The FTD cycle is the idea that because of SEC regulations requiring market makers to cover FTDs within 35 calendar days, there is a predictable increase in price and volume every 21ish trading days or 35 calendar days. So far, it has continued to repeat itself. The idea is that shorts are in so deep that they are doing the bare minimum to cover and continue to dig themselves in a deeper hole by kicking the can down the road. It is currently increasing exponentially, which indicates that it is getting more and more expensive for shorts to stay in the game. + +[Orange line represents FTD cycle increases each month. Yellow lines are FTD cycles. Disregard the red lines, those were my trend lines before we broke out](https://preview.redd.it/pgikvf01st371.png?width=1412&format=png&auto=webp&s=8eecc3c7176aa22a77b37c302a9d57bc197f7477) + +**SI by the charts** + +Below is a chart that the quant apes gathered from Ortex showing the SI of the meme stocks over time. Many of you will say that this is inaccurate because the real SI is hidden. While we have many instances of that being true, this is the best concrete data that we can gather (much better than Fintel and FINRA), so it’s what we must use to avoid speculation. So, yes these numbers are probably an understatement but that’s a good thing because we do not want to speculate. If we can find significant results on incomplete data, our thesis is strengthened: + +[\(Credit to u\/orangecatmasterrace\)](https://preview.redd.it/88i9r528st371.png?width=1750&format=png&auto=webp&s=89c540227a2e8d7f969d110a7d0ef60042ec423b) + +I noticed some very interesting things from this chart. First, I noticed that the SI of most of the meme stocks markedly increased in mid 2019. GME had an exceptional increase (I think because of their issuance of bonds, shorts saw that as a debt death sentence). There was also a slight, but noticeable, rise in SI of most of these in mid 2016 as well. Hmmmmmm. My original thesis was that they were all heavily shorted after the covid crash because HFs predicted a bad economy and the destruction of brick and mortars, so they used the low interest rate and low liquidity environment to their advantage. That is still probably true as I bet they did it with naked shorts, but this chart made me think even more. What happened before Covid that could’ve led to these SI increases. + +**Friend of the shorts: The US economy** + +The first thing I did was get a chart of short volume data in the stock market over time to get the big picture: + +https://preview.redd.it/lhxdy8t9st371.png?width=1374&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8f711ef8dab8cc36f77ee6d55fc852ed693393b + +As you can see SI has increased markedly in 2015 and 2019. So that got me thinking, there must be some kind of law, some correlation with FED policy, or some kind of macroeconomic happening that led to this. So next, I looked at the interest rates for interbank lending: + +https://preview.redd.it/z3677egbst371.png?width=1234&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac740b8236851f40bb01e0eb7fce99a80b550396 + +This is not mortgage interest rate, this is federal funds interest rate, which is essentially the interbank interest rate for excess lending. As you can see it’s been insanely low since the 1990’s, but particularly low as of recently. Next, I looked at the balance sheet of the FED. This essentially shows the Fed's buying of assets over time. + +https://preview.redd.it/rd1ye3ddst371.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=f284394415c8cd127d750bbcd45f55ef676d0fd0 + +https://preview.redd.it/ygpfqudest371.png?width=1554&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cf6fa82247426f7a83db8d202be1f85b3c5f8be + +The above graph is especially striking. It shows the FED's balance sheet is increasing proportionately with the SP500. The FED's Quantitative easing policies have been extremely aggressive since 2008. QE is where the FED purposefully stimulates the economy by buying assets like bonds. This was necessary after 2008 and the FED kept it going for a while then started tightening (QT). However, and this chart doesn't show it, the FED had to parabolically increase its QE policies duirng covid. You know what else parabolically increased? Yep, the stock market. + +**The statistical significance of the FTD cycle** + +https://preview.redd.it/79rg4j9gst371.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=33e2deedfeb5f2caa5c1914e8caa828071214862 + +https://preview.redd.it/3qzw1f0hst371.png?width=1274&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b591b0a0bfe04debd67f0561a971ac797651e78 + +[\(User wished to remain anonymous for this\)](https://preview.redd.it/y9iekcuist371.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=39b9bc492e20a346bdeef2ab210cdf6d9196303a) + +The above charts show GME's FTD cycle increases after a certain number of days. I put TSLA and MSFT in there so that you could see how abnormal GME is. Even compared to a volatile stock like TSLA, GME has a way more recognizable pattern, which gives us further statistical evidence of the FTD cycle. Also, note that there were many other users in different posts on this sub who found the FTD cycle statistically significant, this is another view to add to the body of work. Below shows the short interest of the meme stocks in relation to each other, so you can see when they started and how they've increased together: + +[\(credit to u\/orangecatmasterrace\) ](https://preview.redd.it/765vp0kqst371.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=03d70c989c96d63c0d3321acdd8e081b9ed903c8) + +Keep the above chart in mind while reading below. + +**The takeaway:** + +We are in an EXTREMELY easy lending environment. Rates are dirt cheap. The FED is buying up assets, which is pushing up the prices of literally all assets. The market is flush with liquid assets, so much so that the FED was trying to slow it down. This makes the perfect storm for a short-friendly environment. We were also in the longest and biggest bull market run of all time in 2010's, so it would make sense for it to come to an end soon - that's where shorts really make a killing. + +What I think happened is that we saw the longest bull market of all time in the 2010 decade. HFs realized that this bull market was propped up on the FED’s massive balance sheet and that there would need to be more economic tightening soon and/or a correction. Anticipating an end to the bull market, they initiated a giant short campaign in 2019 with the aforementioned meme stocks and probably tons of others (the meme stocks are just the ones that retail investors took interest in). Once Covid hit, their campaign was successful, but they wanted more. They wanted to hit the bankruptcy jackpot, so they turned it up with the naked shorts, which is why the data doesn’t show that, in an attempt to put brick and mortars out of business. + +Instead, the FED accelerated its easy money policies and the economy had one of the quickest recoveries of all time. This is why I think we started seeing the FTD cycle in late 2020 - it was a result of their failed mega short during covid. This alone would’ve made them lose money but they've run into roadblocks like this before so it's not what caused the squeeze and mania. What caused that was the fact that apes literally buy and hold but never sell. This essentially created a giant wall that wouldn't allow the HFs to short down out of their positions and got them into this mess. Then some retail investors caught wind of it and bought into some of their most shorted stocks, which is why we saw what happened in January. They are still in that hole because the brokers’ pausing of buying didn’t solve the problem, it just delayed it. That’s why we see the FTD cycle exponentially increasing. This economic environment has been brewing for this for a long time, and it would have continued if not for reddit (mainly DFV). I mean how crazy is it that GME’s SI was over 100% for so long and no one noticed? + +I am convinced that this would not have been able to continue to happen if apes didn't hold. That's why this was all able to happen. It's because there has never been a phenomena in the market where a significant portion of investors in a stock will hold it no matter what the market conditions are. So when shorts started aggressively shorting and things turned south because of the FED's recovery policies, retail's refusal to sell just added insult to injury and is why we are in this position now. + +(Please note that the above data I only actually displayed a fraction of the quant apes' data. They gave me an amazing amount. I used some of it to inform my/guide myself and displayed charts that went well with my DD, so believe their work is even more in-depth than this post portrays) + +# Part 3: DD Drop + +Alright apes, the above was a mouthful, but wow aren’t our quant apes amazing! Now that you’ve read all of that, I am going to do another one of my DD drops on some random theories, updates, etc. + +Everyone remember what happened with Archegos? That was a real funny one wasn’t it? Bill Hwang plead guilty to insider trading, so he had to operate a family office. The man lost $20 billion in the span of 2 days, now that’s a level of yolo retardation we should all strive for. One of the companies that Hwang invested in was Discovery, here’s it’s chart: + +https://preview.redd.it/4qnz2xesst371.png?width=2206&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4c7320665b27f95a8b9ffe05328d7e93bb26b3a + +See that purple line? I bet you probably think that’s VWAP or a SMA line, right? NOPE. That’s VIAC (Viacom CBS), one of the other companies he bet big on. Hwang used an instrument called total return swaps, which basically allow you to “swap” the delta of one baseline security for another. Here’s an example: a total return swap of Apple and SPY. You get the returns of APPL. If AAPL outperforms SPY, you make money, but if not, you owe them money. That was all a huge oversimplification but essentially, it allows you to have exposure to a company without owning it (derivative). That above chart was just a 1 year chart, but essentially, Hwang applied so much leverage to these companies through these swaps that they were trading at double their fair market price. + +This hypothesis is backed by no data whatsoever and is really just a thought experiment. Based on the fact that meme stocks correlate (as shown above), what if HFs are using some type of swap on them? It would make sense given the extremely low interest rates. It would make even more sense given the negative beta of GME (i.e. SPY would be the reference security). Perhaps they use total return swaps or another instrument to cover or to add more pressure? Idk. Just a thought. + +Another hypothesis: could this all be the work of an algo? I mean, there's no more observing the similarities, we now know they are statistically significant and related. IMO, it's impossible for human traders to create this pattern – it’s just too precise and based on too much volume, so the options are either they shorted all of these at the exact same time and are being forced to cover at the exact same time (FTD cycle), an algo is doing that for them, or some algo is orchestrating all of this. I find that unlikely because of the difficulty and obvious market manipulation charge they'd get but we have to consider it! Again, just another thought, not much else to it. + +**The Midday Spikes: An Answer** + +Apes, we might have an answer to the midday volume spike phenomena. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, see my other post. My hypothesis was that these midday spikes were HFs covering to satisfy some kind of requirement or to avoid some kind of FTD cycle. I had no evidence for the cause, I just had tons of observations for the occurrence. Let tell you though, if there’s one thing I know, it’s that it’s not retail. Whatever is behind the midday spikes is a single entity. It is impossible for a bunch of unorganized people to consistently buy a stock in the same minute interval in mass. That is a single entity doing that and I think whoever it is is our enemy. A beautiful ape by the name of u/KFC_just turned me on to the idea that it may be to comply with net negative rules. I scoured the interwebs and found this on NASDAQ: + +https://preview.redd.it/qvze3s1vst371.png?width=1954&format=png&auto=webp&s=296a2ead951725c90722f157d402a86b34854748 + +Notice that it also talks about clearing corporation requirements, which adds another elements into the mix. Though I can’t find any information about exact requirements in terms of liquidity/numbers, I think that this is pretty definitive proof of the reasons for the midday spikes. Essentially, it seems as though these midday spikes are some fund covering in order to "maintain net capital sufficient to comply with the requirements of the Clearing Corporation." Also, the final sentence explains why they need to cover (i.e. to remain positive). + +**Earnings and 6/9** + +A lot of you are probably extremely excited for earnings and the annual meeting on 6/9. I am too. However, I wanted to make this to tell you to not get your hopes up too much and to not be surprised if it doesn’t go our way. What I will say is, I am confident that we will see a dildo candle one way or another. For earnings, remember that last quarter the earnings were not even bad and the stock had a GIANT red dildo candle. Unless earnings are absolutely spectacular, I could see HFs using it as a way to put negative momentum on the stock (remember, it's all about the narrative). Now, earnings could be spectacular. GME has gotten so much more attention this past quarter and I know that apes have been feverishly shopping there, so we do have hope. + +As far as the annual meeting I have absolutely no clue what to expect. However, like earnings, I expect another dildo one way or another. If you remember last earnings, we all thought that the guidance/conference call is what would put us over the edge. Instead, it was barebones minimum, and we succumbed to the HFs earnings downward momentum. I expect this to be different. An annual meeting is different from an earnings call and definitely warrants more speaking, more guidance, and more detail. If GME was going to announce some blockbuster move, it would be during this because, assuming they know about the massive short interest, that gives them plausible deniability against market manipulation charges. Some important topics we could hear about are: Ryan Cohen speaking in general, a new CEO, crypto/NFT, acquisitions, digital transformation / direction, and, most importantly, the voting results. Is there a guarantee that these things will be discussed? No. Do I expect many of them to be discussed? Yes. Similar to earnings, we could get great news and see a giant red dildo candle. Remember, expect anything. If we get more shorting on positive news, it just keeps proving we are right. + +As for my thoughts on when we moon, I personally don’t think we’ll moon here almost no matter what. I think that it will be overall good and that we will see a very significant jump, but instead of that being the MOASS, I think it will be what starts the MOASS. The only thing we’ve been able to predict has been FTD cycles so far. The MOASS will come when a HF gets margin called and we just can’t predict the exact time for that. So, I believe that if we see a big jump next week, the MOASS should be coming in the near future but will nevertheless be unpredictable. + +**Clarification of my statements about retail buying** + +In one of my past posts, I said something along the lines of “retail is tapped out.” Thankfully, another user made a post disagreeing with that and it got tons of replies of apes saying things like “I have tripled my position in the past month.” If you haven’t seen that post, I’d look at it, the responses are amazing. With that in mind, I wanted to clarify what I said about that. What I meant in that post is that retail is not responsible for the mass, synchronized buying that we’ve seen in the past week or so, I think that is HFs being forced to cover. Retail, instead, has been holding like champs and steadily buying. IMO it’s pretty hard to believe that retail just randomly decided to buy every stock that squeezed in January at the same time. Instead, I think it’s something much bigger but apes’ ability to hold is why it’s able to happen. However, I do think that once we start squeezing again, it will bring in a new wave of retail that formerly wasn’t in just like January, so we still do have gas in the tank (or ions in the battery if you drive electric). + +# Big Thanks to the Quant Apes + +I can't tell you how seriously amazing the quant apes are. They deserve all of the credit in the entire world and they are one of the most valuable parts of this sub. + +Here is a list of some of the quants who helped with this post (this is not exhaustive as some wanted to remain anonymous) + +u/orangecatmasterrace + +u/spambot9k + +u/rubberbootsinmotion + +u/Ivorypetal + +u/creativelord + +u/collegeneral + +u/xpurplexamyx + +u/jyzaya + +u/epk-lys + +u/head4headsup + +u/squirrel_of_fortune (he made a great DD as well and I would encourage you to check that out to see another perspective with a very interesting, advanced method) + +u/sudoshu (Special thanks to him as he was the organizer of the group. If you are a quant ape, he said to message him if you are interested in being in the group, but serious inquiries only). + +**Mods:** many of these users do not have the karma requirements to comment on posts. If you could somehow waive that requirement for the listed users, I think it would really benefit the sub because the amount of knowledge that these apes possess is amazing. They put so much time into this and gathered so much data (I literally couldn't even show close to all of it) and I believe that they will be integral to the continued success of this sub. + +Finally, the quant apes have created a website: [https://www.superstonkquant.org/](https://www.superstonkquant.org/) + +They are still currently working on the mechanics of it but I encourage you to monitor it in the future because I have witnessed first hand what they are capable of and it is nothing short of amazing. + +**Conclusion** + +Alright apes, that was very long but I appreciate you for reading. This sub keeps doing a great job of pumping out DD and I think we will be rewarded for it in the very near future. I am going to take a break from making DDs because it is really time consuming and can be extremely tiring, but I will still be looking at this sub, commenting, and possibly making short posts. As always, + +*Stay strong, apes.* + +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** +Buffett and Munger have shown that low-cost index funds trump hedge funds over the long term. Yet people keep giving to hedgies. Why? Does the “prestige” of investing with a hedge fund overrule the logic of going with Vanguard? +Hi! I just moved to the US and started my lease in an apartment. My roommate is an international student too and started her ease in July, and I started mine in August. + +Of course since I didn't live in the apt in July, she agreed that she'd fully pay for the electric & gas of July. + +However, we have issues about the bills for August because her bf, who is also from another country, couldn't find a job and decided to stay during August which I agreed to because I figured he had nowhere else to go after graduation. + +But,,, I suddenly thought that it'd be unfair for me to pay half of the electric and gas bills of August since it was 3 people using the electrics and gas. So I asked my roommate to discuss with her bf if each of us could pay 1/3 of the bills. And she asked me if we can pay half instead cuz except for showering, she and he would always cook, clean, wash clothes together to save up energy and didn't turn on heat or AC much. + +I still think it's unfair that I pay half instead of 1/3, but I don't wanna face any conflicts with my roommate and her bf cuz they seem such nice people and have offered a lot of help with cooking, putting furniture together, etc when I just moved in... what should we do? +Hi everyone, + +I invested $2000 when ETH was around $35 a share and I sold it all at $352. I'm now out of the game. + +While I do believe in ETH long-term, being in debt I stupidly had way more invested than I could comfortably lose. Everyday I stressed over the numbers - the last correction for example was horrifying, though I didn't let fear at the time get to me. + +I was able to pay off all my credit card and student loan debt, and I still have a few thousand leftover to put in savings for an emergency fund. + +I no longer owe anything to anyone and I love the peace of mind with that. And finally I won't be checking Coinbase 50 times a day. + +I will probably regret selling as ETH continues to climb, but I know the regret will never compare to the pain I could have felt if I lost everything. + +Just wanted to share. Best of luck everyone. +So they claim to be "Neobank." If you are like me who is thinking to get a Fi money debit card because they advertise "ZERO MARKUP CHARGES" please read this full post. + +Well, I am into digital marketing and have been using Paypal for the last 9 years for doing international transactions(Mostly in USD), they have a flat fee of 4%(conversion charges), which is obviously too much. Also, even if you use a savings debit card on an international website, the markup fee is 3.75%. + +So recently I came across this fancy "Fi money" debit card ad during an IPL match, I was instantly interested and downloaded their app to open my savings account, it was a quick process and I was really impressed, within 10 days I got my debit card delivered. + +I got my card delivered in the 1st week of October, I guess. As soon as I got the card, I transferred some 2 lakhs into my fi savings account and I tried to make a payment to [pond5](https://www.pond5.com/)(we purchase licensed videos from them every year), it was a payment of $2400. So I tried for 4 days payment was not going thru, god knows what reason, and I raised a complaint to the Fi customer care, they initially asked me to wait for 24 hours for a resolution, then next day, they asked me to wait for 72 hours. After 4 days somehow the payment went thru, I did not bother about the complaint. Keep it in mind it was a complain about "payment not going thru." + +As soon as pond5 received the payment, they activated my account, everything was going fine until 22nd October, I received this email from pond5: + +>"Our Finance told us there was a chargeback on your payment - this means your bank took the money back. Unfortunately while there is no payment the subscription is inactive. Could you please check with the bank if they can cancel the chargeback? Maybe you just need to confirm that this was a safe transaction or something like this. If they cannot cancel the chargeback, then I think the best way would be for you to pay by bank transfer." + +And pond5 blocked my videos account, my projects are stuck halfway, resulting in me revenue loss. As I am traveling these days, I got a chance to contact Fi money customer care on 26th October, i simply asked them to cancel the "chargeback" request. They asked me to wait for 2 hours and then 24 hours and then 72 hours. I waited, I called them today after 4 days, they still don't have any updates and on insisting too much, they said, there will be an investigation, it may take 55 days(as the update they got from the Federal Bank) + +Now I am in deep shock, I am stuck halfway, my money is stuck halfway. Also, I am not being able to complete projects on deadlines, which has resulted me in revenue loss. + +Please think forever before putting money in your "Fi money" savings account. They don't have any control over your savings account, for all the queries they raise complaints to Federal bank only, and they take forever to resolve your complaints!! +Recently I made the mistake of rereading Jason Hickels [awful article](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/29/bill-gates-davos-global-poverty-infographic-neoliberal) about global poverty, and while I was pondering the legal liabilities attached to burning down the servers of one of the UK's most popular newspapers, I ended up asking myself whether there might be similarly bad takes on the measurement *national* poverty as well. So, economists of this sub, what are the worst ways to measure national poverty (or at least ways with huge caveats) you frequently see pundits, politicians, and/or people on social media use? +I have about $9000 in my account, as I was saving up for a new car. I recently got a promotion at work which bumped me from $50k to $60k annually. This past year I stopped contributing to my 401k since we lost our match and had a salary reduction during the lockdowns. Our match is still not back. + +Also, my long distance college student gf moved in with me. She helps me with most thing but my expenses went up a little bit. + +I am really split between putting $5k in the stock market or putting it down on a new car (would rather it be in my retirement fund but it’s already been taxed so no point in that now). For reference, I probably spend about $3000 on repairs a years for my car, and it has 141k miles on it. + +Feeling paranoid and guilty about not contributing to my retirement for a whole year and really can’t decide what to do now. +Whenever the media talks about $GME or whenever Cramer has his breakdowns, they always refer to WallStreetBets still to this day. At first I thought that they might not know about r/GME and r/Superstonk, but then it got to me. They know about us, they know about every DD people write here. They study it and spend as much time here as we do. That right there, that's the reason they don't talk about this sub, ever. They know if they talk about it, people will come here interested in GME, see the real DD and all the fucked up shit them and the hedge funds do. Instead, they mention r/wallstreetbets because when a new to reddit person browses there, they see no DD instead it's all pumps and dumps, yolos into shit stocks and crypto. That's the picture they want to paint of us "GME investors". That we are doing this as a joke. That we have no real DD. That we are just dumb retail investors pumping GME like any other stock. That there is nothing special about GME. Just my thoughts, let me know what you think. + +&#x200B; + +Remember, it's simple... Hold, Vote, Buy the dip. +I don't know where I messed up, I thought I taught her well on what to look for in a man. + +The guy just showed up at my house and starting rambling on about how DCAing 30 dollars in 4 months into Safemoon helped him understand finance and geopolitics. I told him he was completely oblivious about being in a ponzi, this only unchained a what I believed to be a cocaine induced speech saying that Safemoon was going to be the next Bitcoin and he was going to moon while buying *"lambos"* for his friends because he was no *"Bitch-ass paperhands"*. + +I'm a bank executive, so you can only imagine what a nightmare this is for me. + +Don't know what the point of this post is, is not like my daughter is going to stop dating that idiot anyways. I'm scared about my daughter's future. + +Sorry, I needed to vent. +recently i was talking to my mom about her job as a biologist at eli lilly, which is one of the biggest employers here in the midwest. we got to the topic of eli lilly's employee pension and retirement fund policy, where employees with at least 10 years of work experience are entitled to pension benefits by age 55. she laughed and mentioned that most employees will never see that pension, as it is common practice at eli lilly to lay off workers just before they reach the pension age to avoid paying them that pension. even if the employee wasn't unproductive, they on average would be at considerable risk of being laid off solely for lilly to avoid accruing an extra expense of paying their workers pensions and increasing their wages for working for them for so long. + +that got me thinking. pareto efficiency is when we cannot make one better off without making someone else worse off. and oftentimes we hear that private enterprise and corporations are more efficient and keep costs lower than public. yet it seems as if eli lilly is keeping its costs low and making itself better off with larger profits while making its workers a lot worse off in this case by laying off otherwise productive workers to avoid paying them their benefits. sure, costs are lower, but who is that exactly helping? the large, wealthy shareholders, or the workers and masses? + +i still remember that back in the 2012 election the huge talking point was the economy. the obama campaign really was able to dictate the conversation here by arguing that it was people like mitt romney that hurt the economy the most, such as how romney and bain capital fucked over toys r us. what value do these large shareholders for companies like eli lilly provide? what value do these private equity folks like vanguard that owns a significant share in lilly provide to these firms? other than fucking over workers, cutting wages, and laying off perfectly competent workers just to avoid paying them their due pay raises and pension benefits that should come with experience? + +so often we hear that private is more efficient, that private keeps cost lower. but hearing shit like this kinda makes me think that this efficiency, if it even exists, comes at the expense of workers. doesn't seem like pareto improvement to me. theoretically worker compensation should increase with experience. but it seems like companies like eli lilly are deliberately cutting off these benefits from experience while still reaping the labor. and funnily enough, eli lilly is already rated as a very employee-friendly company. i can only imagine the extra bs that my mom's fellow biologists at novartis and p&g as well as workers in other industries go through. + +so ig my questios are: + +1. does privatization really increase efficiency and lower costs? i've seen a couple studies online that say for utilities, mail, and healthcare it does not +2. are the capitalist gains in production and growth coming at the expense of cutting worker's benefits that should come with experience and productivity gains? +3. is private production more expensive due to the profit margins that add onto the prices of privately produced goods and services compared to publicly controlled industry? or is this offset by private corporations perhaps operating on an economy of scale? +Instead of lowering interest rates, the federal reserve could send money to people directly to set inflation targets and skip the middle man altogether (banks and federal government). +This is going to be a very slow market for premium sellers that know what they're doing. There's no volatility in nearly anything worth entering. I see people reaching, like really hard. My face is now inverted from the cringe of reading the thread on selling 3 year $240 spy puts. Absolute fucking brilliance, delivered to you, yes you, right on your very own home computer screen or handheld device. I mean really, we should be paying these guys for these strokes of genius. Meanwhile, OP is getting counseled by a supposed 35-year futures veteran on how he should lever up the $240 SPY contract in the /MES market for the absolute maximum faceripping experience. + +Someone just fucking kill me. This place sucks. I hate all of you. + +That's it. +There have been a few posts here talking about the recent property market. It is definitely unbelievably demotivating and shitty for first-home buyers right now and I'd call it categorically unfair. + +However, the most upvoted comments are all about how prices are insane; how it is better to wait; how the bubble is going to pop and we're going to see a 30%, 50% correction. The problem? I've been on this subreddit for a few years, and these comments are pretty much identical to what people said in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. + +I understand that everyone has their opinion, unfortunately listening to their opinions and not buying in Sydney when I could in 2016 has cost me millions in potential equity. I want to bring some unpopular opinions: + +1. Right now, you can lock in a fixed home loan for about 2.3% p.a. or so. This interest rate is lower than the BLS inflation of 3.5% year on year; and tbh, from my personal experience my cost of living has gone way higher than 3.5%. A [New Zealand newspaper](https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/prices/grocery-prices) maintains an independent grocery price index that uses actual prices from supermarkets, and if you switch to the $AU version, you'll see grocery prices have increased by **15% year on year**, and **34% since 2020**. That matches my experiences more. + +2. The capital gains on your owner-occupier property is not taxed. This is a special concession that you cannot get with any other investment. The reality is, if you put money into shares or ETFs, you will be paying capital gains tax, plus income tax on dividends. If you buy a owner-occupied property, you don't pay CGT. We can talk about how unfair the tax system is (and I'd agree with you), but if you want a good financial outcome for yourself, **you need to use it**. + +3. When you pay rent, you're paying with it using post-tax dollars. When you own your own property, there is no financial transaction, which means that there is no government taking up to 47% of your wage before it goes into rent. **For someone in the marginal tax bracket, this effectively means your imputed rent is halved if you are an owner occupier.** + +4. Housing is a **relative asset**. Let's say you do buy and there is a correction (no, I do not believe home prices will only go up). The thing is, **it's not just your property that devalues, every property does**. So if you want to move to a different suburb, you'll be able to preserve **the same standard of housing** even if there is a broad correction; and you can always build additional savings to capitalise from any corrections and improve your living standards. + +5. Listen to the markets on interest rates; not random commentary from redditors. If you [look at market-implied interest rates](https://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf), you'll see the market believes the cash rate will be 1.1% in one year from now. These figures are implied based on institutional trades -- banks and funds with 'smart money' put billions of dollars along the line and trade based on extensive research or positioning; and is a lot more accurate than the random redditor thinking RBA is going to hike rates to 5% and crash the housing market. + +6. Q4 2021 bought about record-shattering supply and auctions, and yet the market has held up. Despite substantially more stock on the market; prices remained stable. This tells us that **there is ample buying demand at current levels**; and while FOMO has certainly contributed to the sharp acceleration in 2021; the data does not support the thesis that we're going to see it reverse in 2022. + +My recommendation is simple: + +**If you can afford to buy a property, buy a property.** Get on the property ladder, and stop worrying about it. Housing, as an asset class, goes up over the long time. Maybe homes will be 5% cheaper by the end of this year, maybe homes will be 10% more expensive by the end of this year; but **probability wise, it's more likely to go up than down**; plus the saved rent and tax benefits. That's what investments do. + +If I listened to this advice a four years ago instead of r/AusFinance calling Aus property a super-bubble, I would be sitting on a ~$2M house with ~475% gains on my deposit. +Good morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole, + +Do you smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xlxwr6o9e3u61.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ade65933b3df58d9496c65bd03500ddc058ae28 + +None of this is financial advice, I just put the subs posts together so stuff doesn't get lost. + +# Big sell orders + +Ok first things first as this one caught my eye, it seems some people (shills or people who are fairly new to this) have spotted a sell order of about 200,000 shares. + +This won't be our boy DFV, and you know why I know?Because he likes the stock, he quadrupled down last friday, buying 50.000 from his options and 50.000 more at market price, meaning he upped his base price and spent a lot of money doing it. + +He has stated a long time ago and multiple times through the months that he really just likes the stock and he sees GME doing a turn-around, netfix style (aka being a meh company to one of the biggest). + +So going off of pure logic, why sell now ? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/83m6kpi8j3u61.png?width=380&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f50915423f2501d56897d2462b641e258a3816d + +# Late night Hedgies part 2; electric boogaloo + +Ok so I'm away for the weekend come home and see we have mission impossible part deux monkey boogaloo going on. + +so lets first give the sources + +[ABN AMRO](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtkv4u/abn_amro_headquarters_in_amsterdam_top_floor/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Brazil Bank](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtmoil/brazilian_bankers_working_hard_on_a_sunday_night/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Citadel HQ Chicago](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mt85ej/google_says_there_is_more_activity_at_citadel_hq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[London Stock exchange](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtepmk/london_stock_exchange_a_lot_busier_that_ususal/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Credit Suise Zurich](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtoa1o/credit_suisse_in_zurich/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Frankfurt stock exchange](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtlpj6/deutsche_bank_hq_train_station_reporting/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Why are banks working so late?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mt7gpk/connecting_the_dots_google_saying_citadel_hq_busy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Hi Intern, how are you? You guys getting enough rest? please do](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mto8db/google_trends_has_a_handy_little_tool_superstonk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +&#x200B; + +A good Ape did a great rundown in this thread [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtgr19/a_breakdown_of_citadels_overnight_activity/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf). + +&#x200B; + +So what the hell is going on? + +Maybe a cleaning crew? + +&#x200B; + +Well for ABN Amro I know for sure that it's most likely crypto as speculated before, as this came out today [https://www.businessinsider.nl/abn-amro-witwassen-schikking-480-miljoen-om/](https://www.businessinsider.nl/abn-amro-witwassen-schikking-480-miljoen-om/) + +So does this mean that all the institutions and banks we have seen burning the midnight oil in the weekend where doing that? no. + +ABN Amro did not themselves do money laundering but they had an obligation to check if clients where doing such things, and they didn't or failed in their efforts to do so. + +This all seem to tie together with the crypto market crashing over the weekend, as well most institutional owners can't trade in the weekend because they're closed. + +Also what's good to note is a comment made that I've read but could not verify if true, It seems that before the crash in 2008 the financial markets made the biggest moves on friday night saturday and sunday, but during the week it was business as usual, so we know what we need to look for this time around. + +One word of note though, I am fully ok with keeping an eye out on institutions, but under no circumstances should anyone make personal contact with any employees, remember they are just people working for someone else, and we should respect the personal boundaries. + +As for the pictures and videos, make sure you are following the rules and laws of your country, I know that in some countries it's legal in others it may not, so make sure you follow the law to the letter. + +They may break the law on a daily basis, but we work in the light and uphold the law, always + +https://preview.redd.it/r2cllip8f3u61.jpg?width=618&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2c2a4b8d424653aa2a7cc83a7b046cd8485863f9 + +# The man with the plan + +Our boy Gensler got sworn in on saturday! + +[https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-65](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-65) + +[as wrote in this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtko2f/hypothesis_on_why_shitadel_is_working_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) it seems that there was an advanced notice that went out alongside it, it seems that the DTC-2021-003 may be implemented soon and there was a notice that went out to everyone that they needed to submit positions starting on Monday (or at least in the next week or so), tis could logically explain why a lot of banks were burning the midnight oil. + +Also him being sworn in on a saturday is a big thing, as the only people from the SEC heads being sworn in on saturdays were always when shit hit the fan, so... yeah gives food for thought at minimum. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/04c5x994q3u61.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c2a40296d49f2248d6b010ae7b4ec9e31c3fd7b + +Also on the dog, let me be clear, it could be that this is a person with pure intentions and wants to help out, it could also be someone who's being propped up to look as a good person only to pivot later and change their tune, but as of right now it looks like it's a good boy. + +So just as always, trust no one, double check everything and verify all info for yourself. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/36wmv0len3u61.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=3eb43e3c876efbfbe406bbc942884185b39e1bb9 + +# No dates! + +Ok people let's go over this one again, no dates! we are excited for the coming weeks but as you can see, we've also seen a google search analytic that citadel is keeping a good eye out on this sub ([https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US-IL-602&q=superstonk](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=US-IL-602&q=superstonk)) + +We have been saying this for quite a bit + +https://preview.redd.it/b95kpmojl3u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fc94dc3c4713a16753f8f377a2b77e6b5cde53d + +People have been saying they have been keeping their eyes on us for quite some time, so remember no dates, just chill and sit back and let it happen. and trust me I want this to be over ASAP, but we have to keep our heads on straight and realise these idiots will try to keep breaking moral as much as they can. + +We have seen people from /biz/ come over here warning us of the same things happening to them, thread splitters, shills etc [You can see the thread here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mscsb5/putting_shills_on_blast_a_concerned_biznessman/). + +Things of note that you should definitely take a look at are these two links: + +[https://preview.redd.it/8yz1vusxqlt61.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c2b96d2ae38e008e788b06f77508df45c795e93](https://preview.redd.it/8yz1vusxqlt61.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c2b96d2ae38e008e788b06f77508df45c795e93) + +And [https://www.gutenberg.org/files/26184/page-images/26184-images.pdf](https://www.gutenberg.org/files/26184/page-images/26184-images.pdf) + +Now I'm not in any way saying that there is a bigger organisation behind things, but we have been seeing exactly these things happen, so to be clear I'm not going full conspiracy on this, but these two links do describe who and what we have been seeing going on on multiple subs and even outside of that, we have been seeing the same on /biz/ reddit and even the comment sections of etoro and Webull. + +So please read so you know what you are dealing with, as once the subjects (us) know what they are trying to do it won't work anymore. + +Also everyone is hyped that even at this price DFV likes the stock, so you can expect Shitadel to try harder then ever to keep it down so be sure to keep an eye out for my favorite books, Fuckery, Advanced Fuckery and WHAT THE FUCKERY. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ethsqvr4p3u61.png?width=608&format=png&auto=webp&s=bfa3cd6c714a84267b7db70bd6e1b09fe164781a + +# Yolo with Domo + +yeah boiii, tomorrow we got our yolo specialists on, on 4/20. + +So be sure to ask these guys everything you'd like, if you want to know who they are read their description, I personally like these guys as they seem to very straight forward and even go as far as calling shit out from the media (sherman got his shares called in and MSM wrongfully said he sold these), they talked with RC on how this stock could become 1000 a piece, and how it would go etc. + +So be friendly be kind and ask them all the things you'd like to know. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtnian/official\_ama\_justin\_dopierala\_founder\_and/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtnian/official_ama_justin_dopierala_founder_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kqmejbolp3u61.png?width=305&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7a3f8f64e2c4e8ffc5611a0da18551209b2ea7e + +# DFV CONFIRMED! tinfoil hat time + +Ok this award can be given by anyone, so even though it would be cool that DFV would be handing these out it's more likely that y'all are hyping yourself up and trolls and shills are abusing this to mess with you. + +I mean for christ sake guys, anyone could give these out anonymously, so again TEMPER EXPECTATIONS. + +I'd love for it to turn out that I'm wrong on this, but chances are much bigger that these awards come from regular people then DFV himself. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/mkln5dd0r3u61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=bea21547d1f9ecb0c75015b75e07554c398fd0b1 + +# Looks decent but not sure + +ok so I've seen this specific thread come up: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtftsq/i\_think\_i\_figured\_out\_what\_dfv\_knows\_and\_its/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtftsq/i_think_i_figured_out_what_dfv_knows_and_its/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +It looks very promising but I'm gonna be 100% honest here, I have no clue if that's how it works or not. + +If so then... fucking awesome, if not nothing bad and it's just another day. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2b5ra6y6r3u61.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=a56bd05e842afbfbc1f956dcdd3226599bd536c6 + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/77lwojqgr3u61.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9595f5dd1017c80b94854819b66f94bf030d49a + +Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day I will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/](https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/) + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1](https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1) + +[https://twitter.com/warden\_elite](https://twitter.com/warden_elite) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +And I'll be posting updates as they happen here: + +And please remember we don't know what the next few days will bring, they are exciting but we have gotten our hopes up before so please temper them, relax and try to take your mind off of things this weekend. Go get some R&R . + +&#x200B; + +If I missed anything I'm sorry but this weekend was more crazy then normal weekends, hell I'm an hour later with uploading then I normally post stuff... so wow + +&#x200B; + +Edit 1: + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-chief-executive-officer-succession-plan](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-chief-executive-officer-succession-plan) + +George Sherman out as CEO! Succession plan to be released (just released less than a few minutes ago) + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18826/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18826/html) +I have always wanted to post a REAL warning about Jr. Mining and exploration stocks to all my fellow penny stock investors. + +My background is as a miner in northern Manitoba, Canada. 16 years as a underground mining, and my spouse is a geologist. I know mining and this isn’t a BS post and I ain’t hating on any individual stock or investor. + +What I wanted to tell everyone who invests in theses type of stocks is BEWARE! I wish I could show everyone on this chat how hard and how expensive it is to create a mine! + +Everyday I see people talk about a mining company with great drill results and/or inferred resources. That is just the first BABY👶🏼 step to creating a mine. The work to go from ore zone find to actually making money is a massive amount and that takes years!!! It takes years just to get permission to build a mine especially on land claims and water resources/pollution. + +I spent a portion of my childhood summers in a diamond drill camp my mother worked at as a cook. That huge ore zone that was discovered in the late 90s is still sitting there even though the company stock went up into the dollars per share. Nothing ever materialized. No mine, millions invested and spent with not a rock mined. +In 2008 I watched my father invest a big chunk of his portfolio into a nickel project that seemed like a no brainer. Still to this day no mine! despite camps and roads built and ground broken. Shares went 🚀🚀🚀based off of drill results. I believe they went as high as 0.70$ share and in 2 years it was .01$ a share. Millions invested and spent and nothing yet a decade later. + +So take this as a friendly reminder and warning. Drill results are nice but they don’t produce money💸. Inferred ore zones are nice but they don’t produce money💸 +Huge evaluations based off of ore in the ground but nothing produced is dangerous and extremely risky. +If the mining company you are investing in doesn’t already produce then get ready for a long drawn out process. + +If you are lucky enough to make money on the news of good results then I’m all for it, good for you! Just don’t think or expect a mining stock to hold those levels unless product is being made! +Good luck fellow investors. Hope this helps your future DUE DILIGENCE!!!! +I have always wanted to post a REAL warning about Jr. Mining and exploration stocks to all my fellow penny stock investors. + +My background is as a miner in northern Manitoba, Canada. 16 years as a underground mining, and my spouse is a geologist. I know mining and this isn’t a BS post and I ain’t hating on any individual stock or investor. + +What I wanted to tell everyone who invests in theses type of stocks is BEWARE! I wish I could show everyone on this chat how hard and how expensive it is to create a mine! + +Everyday I see people talk about a mining company with great drill results and/or inferred resources. That is just the first BABY👶🏼 step to creating a mine. The work to go from ore zone find to actually making money is a massive amount and that takes years!!! It takes years just to get permission to build a mine especially on land claims and water resources/pollution. + +I spent a portion of my childhood summers in a diamond drill camp my mother worked at as a cook. That huge ore zone that was discovered in the late 90s is still sitting there even though the company stock went up into the dollars per share. Nothing ever materialized. No mine, millions invested and spent with not a rock mined. +In 2008 I watched my father invest a big chunk of his portfolio into a nickel project that seemed like a no brainer. Still to this day no mine! despite camps and roads built and ground broken. Shares went 🚀🚀🚀based off of drill results. I believe they went as high as 0.70$ share and in 2 years it was .01$ a share. Millions invested and spent and nothing yet a decade later. + +So take this as a friendly reminder and warning. Drill results are nice but they don’t produce money💸. Inferred ore zones are nice but they don’t produce money💸 +Huge evaluations based off of ore in the ground but nothing produced is dangerous and extremely risky. +If the mining company you are investing in doesn’t already produce then get ready for a long drawn out process. + +If you are lucky enough to make money on the news of good results then I’m all for it, good for you! Just don’t think or expect a mining stock to hold those levels unless product is being made! +Good luck fellow investors. Hope this helps your future DUE DILIGENCE!!!! +I see this expression all the time, but I don’t really see how it plays out in reality. + +Isn’t almost all the money owned by the rich being continually invested? +We have a downtown property that we are currently renovating. Every day, the same woman has brought her tent and dog and sleeps/lives on the driveway which is part of our property. Today she used the bathroom on it as well. The first time we saw her stuff, we left her a note to leave. The second time, when we saw her, we told her to leave and that we wouldn’t be calling the cops if she left and did not come back. Today, my mom was moving some stuff in (as she is moving homes and needed some storage area) and asked the woman to leave, which is when she pooped in the driveway. My mother called the cops, and now I have filled out a report. Every time we have asked her to leave before, she does, but is there again immediately after. + +My question is, what do you do to deter trespassers? This is our first downtown property. My initial thought is bright lights that turn on at night, or putting up cameras. But any advice would be appreciated! + +Edit: Thanks to those of you who shared your experience and advice. +Here is what we have added for now: +1. A dummy security camera (since there is no internet at the property) +2. Bright motion sensor lights +3. Water hose lock +4. Clear signage about being on camera and no trespassing + +If you want to discuss these options, I have made a comment down below! Would love if people didn't comment violence being the best option. +I'll preface by saying this is half hypothetical, as the strategy is still bring refined and I'm trying to improve it, but I'm just going to talk as if I have already fully made it because easier I guess. + +So lets say I have a winning strategy, but it's a borderline HFT strategy if that makes sense. I have back tested and tested it live, accounted for commissions and spreads and all. And yes, I have asked myself why has no one else done this if this strategy is so good? And I have a reasonable answer I wont share because I would rather not give away the strategy. + +The issue is it won't work well with a low amount of capital and this strategy is most profitable with millions of pounds or dollars being used. I dont have much capital at all because I'm a student so I can't really employ this strategy myself. + +So I thought okay, I could sell it to a hedgefund who trade algorthmically. I dont know how to do that though. I'm based in London so I would ideally sell it to a hedgefund here. + +How would I find a hedgefund to sell it to? And more importantly how do I decide on a price for the algo? Let's say it makes 1% a day (literally just a random number), how do I decide it's worth? + +Also is it worth pursuing a masters or PhD in what I'm studying (mathematics and physics) to gain more credibility before I sell it? +Good morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole, + +Do you smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/n6el37moyvu61.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=86407c5dcd469250d43e53114db32b0f58408291 + +# Ok who pushed the entire market down a cliff? Bobby was it you? + +so yesterday the entire market seem to tank around midday, as far as the news went the official reason is because the USA president Biden has upped the federal gains tax to about 43% + +Now would this logically speaking have an effect on the market? yes of course. + +Could it be that because SEC rule 15c3-3 went into effect? yes totally. + +it could be a combination of both of these things which can tank an entire market, namely the announcement being Why, and the Sec rule the how. + +as the new Sec rule means that they need more collateral for their positions, they may have needed to sell off big chunks in order to meet that requirement. + + + +What was also weird yesterday is that suddenly a lot of crypto got pumped into the high heavens, this is a theory we have seen since early February that they would pump crypto to make lots off gains there, or use it as a safe haven for their money in case of the company going bust. + +At this point it's too early to tell why, but it's good to keep an eye on it. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pvglqrn18wu61.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e5ee64d5569ab01653d348b1c4c06f2949c02c10 + +One thing that has caught my eye as well is the sudden "surge" of interest in user "ratioblessings", I've often told them over at r/gme that they are trying to give off the air of being an insider but a few things to keep in mind. + +A) if they are one they stand to gain millions by whistleblowing + +B) they would give out answers, not do an interactive puzzle hunt + +C) how to keep people busy with "busywork" and base everything off of conjecture and special "emoji's" because those emoji's mean something. + +&#x200B; + +So ffs please chill guys, I know you guys want an insider to come help us, but the chances of us actually seeing an actual insider here are slim to none. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/1httqb9f1wu61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e3d7e7eb658f139055f2f6f523b28558f2a58cf + +# YOU GET A PROXY, AND YOU GET A PROXY EVERYONE GETS A PROXY + +&#x200B; + +Ok so yesterday ya boi GME released their proxy statements and oof let's go through them for a bit as there is a lot to unpack. + +Form 14A: + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18846/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18846/html) + +Supplemental proxy material (incl how to vote): + +[https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18841/html](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/node/18841/html) + +&#x200B; + +Ok first of all lets take a look at the big one (and one of the questions I've seen the most here), it's now set in stone that the annual shareholders meeting is on 6/9 + +it said that you need to be a shareholder by the 15th of April. + +Does this mean the shares needed to be recalled by the 15th of April? No. + +This means that you need to have bought your shares before the 15th to be able to vote, the shares can be recalled until 10 days before the meeting, meaning at the latest we'll see the institutions recall their shares up to 29th of May (t+2). + +So putting this next to the Iborrowdesk site's info on the cost % of last year and knowing this it's fair to make the conclusion that they have not yet started the recall, but will start doing so in the next few weeks if they want to do so, and I believe they do. + +# Total float + +We also learned from them directly that the available float is only about 26.7 million. + +# Institutional ownership + +What we also learned is the total of institutional ownership which is up to date (at least I believe so) and they own ‭33.333.438‬ (‭58,5‬%) + +This however does not include the amount of shares held by institutions bellow the 5% reporting threshold. + +# Director ownership (insider owners) + +We learned the total shares on the inside is 11,674,085 (16.5%) + +This means that 75% of the total shares are locked up or ‭45.008.523‬ shares in total. + +Meaning that 26.7 is the float (give or take). + +(fun fact DFV owns roughly over 1.25% of that publicly available float) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[Ever leveled a character to max stats? Rc did](https://preview.redd.it/53o6pu416wu61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=1412855090bf823d2fb5ac621abc68890402606a) + +Now they brought in an external party to overview who would be best placed where, and who would be the best at certain positions. + +What did caught my eye was page 47 and page 48. + + Page 47 + Actual and Expected Executive Separations + In the case of Messrs. Homeister and Sherman, + the table below presents an updated estimate of their expected severance + rights, with stock values based on the closing price of our common stock + on April 15, 2021 ($156.44). This is supplemental information and + is provided to give more current estimates of these executives’ severance + rights in light of their impending departures based on updated stock + prices, updated share amounts and, + in the case of Mr. Sherman, revised severance terms. + +&#x200B; + + + Page 48. + The amount shown in the table represents the value of 812,703 shares of + time-vested restricted stock that are expected to vest on an accelerated + basis in connection with Mr. Sherman’s departure, based on the closing + price of our common stock on April 15, 2021 ($156.44). + This does not include 308,477 shares of time-vested restricted stock + that are expected to vest in the ordinary course on June 9, 2021, + prior to the presently expected date of Mr. Sherman’s departure. + +That last sentence, "THE EXPECTED DATE OF MR. SHERMAN'S DEPARTURE". aka the board still wants him gone. ofcourse mr Sherman brings with him years of experience with brick and mortar stores but I believe he may still be on the way out and this is his hail mary, I know that if I had a vote I would not keep someone who failed for years in a ceo position. + +&#x200B; + +I'm sure there is way more to unpack in these documents but this is what I was able to find so far. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wa7l2nfr8wu61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=db8cb67d12f8deb960dbd007098b7f73299825de + +Unfortunately I have to end on some bad news, I've been doing these posts for months now, day in day out, often resulting in workdays of 10 to 15 hours a day. and at this point it has began taking its toll on me. + +I'm just tired guys, I'm so fucking tired. + +Checking everything, making dailies, moderating everything has asked a serious amount of me, I've started neglecting a lot of parts of my life and the most important people to me. And now a time has come where I have to take care of my own own personal mental and physical health. + +So where to from here? + +I will be taking a break, I'm not sure for how long, this could be a few days, a week or maybe longer. + +I will still be on the moderator team but I will be in a more "background" role advising and helping the team whenever and wherever I can, and I'm thankful that the entire mod team has my back in this and being super supportive. + +&#x200B; + +Will the dailies be over? Nope! + +I had a good talk with the team and two mods will be taking over for me. + +Our very own u/Bye_Triangle as Brick Tamland, and u/pinkcatsonacid as our Veronica Corningstone. they will be filing in for me as I rest up. how they do so is fully up to them. + +&#x200B; + +If I can leave you with some advice for when I'm wrong it would be this: + +Avoid tin foil, even if it looks tempting. + +Think critically about everything, this includes your own opinion, be open to the idea of being wrong with something, this leaves room to learn and change what you believe. + +Always question everything, always. + +Don't kneejerk react, if you see something take a step back, reflect on it and then come back, rule your emotions before they rule you. and decisions made on emotions are often hard to come back from. + +And plan your exit strategy + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fd27nz32awu61.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=447bb50cb3c76dcca5c7978b0614b073ffd3f028 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/63w1ngmyawu61.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9a5f529c08461f596b1ecc90bf9a83a56d500fb + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/npxi11n2bwu61.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=9cd12a73ad693c29f8f94cb3ad2ceadfa3b2b3ba + + + +Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day I will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/](https://gmebackup.tumblr.com/) + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1](https://twitter.com/HeyItsPixel1) + +[https://twitter.com/warden\_elite](https://twitter.com/warden_elite) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +And I'll be posting updates as they happen here: + +&#x200B; + +This was Ren Burgundy, signing off... well for now. + +I love you guys and love this community and I'll hopefully be back soon with more energy and a more relaxed state, in the meantime take care of eachother ok? be excellent to everyone. + +See you soon <3 +Hi Personal Finance! + +I see an awful lot of threads here about people wondering how on earth they'll possibly survive this horrible doomsday recession that is just absolutely going to happen any day now. Here's some tips: + +1) There is not a gigantic country-destroying recession that is coming to ruin your life in the coming weeks. Talking heads have been predicting one ever since the last recession. The current news cycle is little more than fear-mongering (full disclosure: I used to be a journalist). IF the current indicators that people are looking at end up holding true, it's still well over a year before things are "expected" to go south. Plenty of time to shore up those savings accounts, make sure you're budgeting properly (see below), etc. + +2) The last recession was called the Great Recession for a reason - it was a harder-hitting one than those that came before. And since it was largely based on a housing crisis, it felt even worse because people were losing their homes due to ridiculous mortgages that they never should have been offered, or agreed to, in the first place. Which leads me to... + +3) Just be smart. Are you living within your means now? Great! Make sure your emergency fund is in good shape, and continue about your business. If you're overspending, take a look at your budget and see what you can cut out of it. This is something you should be doing regardless of how the markets look. Find a cheaper cell phone plan, ditch that $100 / mo cable bill, subscribe to a slower internet package, go out to eat less often, etc. + +4) "What about my stocks? Should I sell all my stocks?" NO!!! Do. Not. Sell. Your. Stocks. The only exception here is if you really are completely and utterly broke otherwise and absolutely need the money. Look, I invested almost all of my life savings in late September last year. And then watched a LOT of it go away - on paper. But guess what? It's all back already, and then some - because I didn't panic sell. In fact, **the best thing you can do in a recession is buy more stock!** A bad market just means that stocks are on sale. Who doesn't love a discount? Again, I wouldn't advise buying unless you have the budget to do so. + +So there you have it, friends. The world isn't ending. Be smart with your money, use some common sense, and be prepared to make some small sacrifices in the short term *if* a recession hits. + +update 1: thanks for the silver! + +update 2: I was working my first "real" job in 2008, but the pay was so bad that I was not investing much. Then over the next nine year, I didn't invest one single cent out of fear of another big market drop (just left it in savings). I ran the numbers, and if I had been investing in the S&P 500 at my original rate that whole time, I'd stand to be up about $200,000 at retirement. **I potentially lost $200k by not investing out of fear of a market turn.** +These ETFs have the highest returns over the past 5 days, 4 weeks and 13 weeks. + +These ETFs could boost your portfolio returns outside of your CORE investments. Remember the stock market adage of "past performance doesn't predict future returns". **Will these ETFs come back down to earth?** *There are 5 EFTs on the list with greater than 80% returns over 13 weeks, THCX, YOLO, MJ, BLOK, PRNT.* + +**TOP 10 Rocket Ship ETFs.** + +***Listed into 5 categories.*** + +***The 4 ARK fund ETFs.*** + +1. **ARKQ**\- Autonomous Technology & Robotics - 56% over 13 weeks, 128% over 1 year +2. **ARKW**\-ARK Next Generation Internet- 52% over 13 week, 155% over 1 year +3. **IZRL**\-ARK Israel innovative Tech- 44% over 13 weeks. +4. **PRNT**\-3D printing, 17% over 4 days, 28% over 4 weeks, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***The 3 Cannabis ETFs*** + +1. **YOLO** \- 26% over 5 days, 32% over 4 weeks, **96% over 13 weeks.** +2. **THCX**\- 32% over 5 days, 41% over 4 weeks, **100% over 13 weeks.** +3. **MJ-** 32% over 5 days, 45% over 4 weeks, **84% over 13 weeks** + +*Update Edit here,* ***2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!,*** *Now we have a ETF Top 12 HOT list.* + +4. **POTX**\- 44% last 5 days, **144% in 13 weeks.** + +5. **MSOS** \-6% last 5days, **81% over 13 weeks** + +***Blockchain bitcoin ETF*** + +* **BLOK-** 24% over 5 days, **83% over 13 weeks,** 128% over 1 year. + +***BioTech ETF*** + +* **XBI-** 17% over 4 weeks, 44% over 13 weeks, 87% over 1 year. + +***EFT copycat of the ARK idea of innovated disrupt technologies.*** + +* **KOMP** \-*15% over 4 weeks, 51% over 13 weeks, 79% over 1 year* + +*EDIT, 2 More Cannabis ETFs going crazy!* + +*Enjoy, good luck investing!* +I work for a company based in California (CA) but I don't work in CA normally. I'm being asked to support a test in CA for the next three weeks. + +The problem is, my program manager just informed me that we'll have to cover our own expenses over the weekend because there's insufficient funds in the program budget, including hotel and food. Normally I travel to a test site with on campus housing and just stay there and drive home on the weekends. This time I won't be able to drive back and forth and there is no on site housing, so it's never come up. + +It doesn't feel right to me. Either they have to pay to cover my expenses while I'm up there or to fly me back and forth...right? + +Edit: this isn't coming from my company, it's from my project. I am an engineer, we have to charge (bill) our hours to specific projects. We don't really have an overhead budget, we bill to projects. My site is low on project funds due to the end of the federal fiscal year. There's plenty of work once the next year of funds are released but that depends on Congress. Until my next year's funds come in, I have to find other work. This is my other work. + +I just want to know for sure that I can tell my program manager he has to pay for my weekend expenses - Google has not been helpful so I figured I'd ask you guys in case someone knew so I have the answer before I go talk to management. + +Edit 2: the fine folks over at /r/legaladvice indicated that CA does require reimbursement of reasonable expenditures related to business travel. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/state-and-local-updates/pages/tips-for-reimbursing-california-employees-business-expenses.aspx +BNN Link (a write-up): [https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-eyeing-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy-1.1593968](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-eyeing-capital-gains-tax-as-high-as-43-4-for-wealthy-1.1593968) + + +>(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden will propose almost doubling the capital gains tax rate for wealthy individuals to 39.6%, which, coupled with an existing surtax on investment income, means that federal tax rates for investors could be as high as 43.4%, according to people familiar with the proposal. +> +>The plan would boost the capital gains rate to 39.6% for those earning $1 million or more, an increase from the current base rate of 20%, the people said on the condition of anonymity because the plan is not yet public. A 3.8% tax on investment income that funds Obamacare would be kept in place, pushing the tax rate on returns on financial assets higher than the top rate on wage and salary income, they said. +> +>The proposal could reverse a long-standing provision of the tax code that taxes returns on investment lower than on labor. Biden campaigned on equalizing the capital gains and income tax rates for wealthy individuals, saying it’s unfair that many of them pay lower rates than middle-class workers. +I thought about calling the Samaritans but rather than reach out to one person, I thought it would be better (?) to say something publicly and get multiple opinions on my situation. + +I feel like I've ruined my families life. I have a partner and two young children. We both work. We scraped enough together (her inheritance, joint small savings) to buy our home a couple of years ago. + +This year my father became very ill and my gambling addiction has spiraled out of control. Once I reached one limit on my credit card, I'd open another - transfer the balance and go again. Then, loans... I'm now in a position that I think I've got more out than I have coming in. I've got my head in the sand a bit and it's not straightforward to work out as I earn different amounts each month. + +I owe about £65k. £25k of that is on credit cards that are at 0%. In less than a year most of that CC debt will jump to 29%. + +As it stands, on my basic wages I can just afford to pay these min payments-debts/share of mortgage and buy some food but after that I'm screwed. I'm probably going to have to Syphon fuel from vans at work just to get there and back. I'm shitting myself about what will happen in 12 months when I have make bigger repayments. + +I feel so disgusted with myself. My other half knows nothing about this & i'm terrified about what could happen if there's some sort of extra expense soon. + +I've looked at stepchange, what are the benefits/drawbacks from their options or god forbid, bankruptcy. I really don't want to lose my childrens home. +Just a quick PSA, because we are not going to leave personalized comments on the dozens of threads getting nuked here, things that are being taken down: + +* WSB mods removed a thread on XYZ + +* I think WSB is manipulating stocks + +* WSB mods are not allowing discussion of [thing I want to discuss] + +* WSB mods are children and shut the sub down + +* anyone thinking /r/investing is the right venue to air out their thoughts on how bad it is that 12 year olds are gambling on Robinhood. + +We just don't care, and we certainly are not going to be a venue for anyone to complain about the moderation of another subreddit. If you have a disagreement with the mods of WSB then slide in to their DM and let them know (modmail, don't actually DM a mod, that's weird), or go to one of the subreddits like /r/subredditdrama that are dedicated to this sort of dumb shit, but don't post about it here because that'll be immediately removed. + +This subreddit is for discussing investing, not for airing out disagreements with other subreddits. I think I've nuked a dozen threads on this topic, and two people have already been banned for re-posting removed threads. + +**E: I don't know how but lot's of confused comments here, "WSB Affairs" means we don't want to see people here bitching about things that happen on that subreddit. It does not mean we're preventing any discussion of any actual trade, investment, whatever. "GME up 70000% in premarket" is a thread that get's to stay because it's an investment topic. "WSB mods did a thing I don't like" is not, that's reddit drama. Simple enough.** +Looking down the road 10-20 years, where are y’all putting your faith? + +Am I wrong to be freaked out by China re: TSM? + +And as a young lad who likes computers, INTC seems like it getting “pushed out” as compared to other companies. What am I missing? + +Love y’all - cheers for the guidance +In 2018, I expect much of the conversation around Ethereum to center upon Proof of Stake. For those of you who want to learn more about Proof of Stake, [this is a decent write-up.](https://www.ethnews.com/proof-of-work-vs-proof-of-stake-explained) A core feature of Proof of Stake will be that miners are replaced by validators. These validators will provide security for the network, by staking their ETH, and will be compensated by receiving a portion of the transaction fees expended on the Ethereum network. If they behave badly, they will be penalized and have their stake slashed. + +**Proof of Stake is anticipated to bring many benefits to the Ethereum network and to ETH token holders, including:** + +- Dramatically reducing energy consumption (in contrast to proof of work, which is incredibly energy intensive) +- Eliminating the miner centralization problem +- Providing some scaling improvements and supporting the cheaper implementation of private transactions +- Paving the way for even more advanced scaling solutions +- Locking-up massive amounts of ETH supply (thus creating relative scarcity in circulating token supply) +- Allowing ETH to pay what essentially amounts to a dividend (for those with stake who also serve as validators) +- Imbuing ETH with financial value that is not purely based upon speculation, but also upon income (allowing for discounted cashflow analysis by professional investors) +- Catching Wall Street's attention (and possibly skyrocketing the price) + +Here's the rub, ***in order for Proof of Stake to work, I believe the market must consider ETH to be a store of value token, in addition to being a smart contract utility coin. And I believe that the Foundation and many of the smart people in the Ethereum community already realize this.*** This "store of value" label is one that the Foundation and many others in the community either avoid, or eschew in some cases for a variety of reasons. Chief among them is that store of value implies mostly speculative value without much in the way of underlying fundamentals. But the reality is that in order for Proof of Stake to work, ETH tokens must have meaningful value, and that value will be compared to other tokens in the marketplace. + +Given how quickly the crypto market is evolving, Ethereum will have to compete for every unit of fiat-denominated wealth stored in its tokens. And that very wealth is what will secure the network under Proof of Stake, in lieu of mining activity. **Make no mistake: a higher ETH price will be directly correlated with greater network security.** + +So let's take a look at the **characteristics that define a "store of value" token:** + +- Provable scarcity, ideally with a hardcap, and/or proven track record of little to no inflation +- Sufficient network effect, reinforcing the store of value characteristic +- Not dependent upon other assets for their value +- Operate on a decentralized blockchain (ideally) +- Provide token fungibility (ideally) + +And that's pretty much it. You could even argue that the first point is the only one that is *really* needed. Some of the popular store of value tokens offer differentiated value beyond this, such as private transactions or planned interoperability with faster L2 solutions. + +**When Ethereum does implement Proof of Stake, it is expected to dramatically curtail or even halt token supply inflation- possibly even destroying some of the existing supply.** Of course, this will need to be implemented to prove that it really meets this criteria (or hard coded in), but once it does, that first point will be met- possibly in a way that is superior to existing store of value coins. + +Another important point is that **staking functionality makes ETH different from almost every other utility token on the market.** Many utility tokens, which run on Ethereum as ERC-20s, will be high velocity tokens (i.e., changing hands often) and have no staking functionality. + +For example: if you want to make a transaction on an exchange using the 0x protocol, you will first need to purchase and then spend some of the ZRX utility tokens. If demand hits a sufficient level, then the price of ZRX may very well increase, due to insufficient liquidity for potential users of the platform. *But this is very different from a staking model,* where the token's value is essential to operation and security of the network. It doesn't matter how much a ZRX token is worth, that network can still function even with a paltry token value. + +But this type of fixed utility, high velocity token would not be sufficient to run a Proof of Stake blockchain. People must want to hold ETH, above and beyond its utility to purchase gas on the the Ethereum network. ETH as a store of value token allows this, and its planned "dividend" from being a validator will only make this more attractive. And we already know that ETH's gas price will be allowed to "float" separately from the value of ETH. + +***So what does all of this mean? Don't assume ETH is just another utility coin. Don't assume it will never be a store of value coin. On the contrary, I believe ETH's utility, combined with all of the factors I list above, will make ETH the most desirable store of value / smart contract utility coin on the market. And I believe that smart investors today are already treating it as such.*** +It takes money to make money. I've heard that once you get to 100k, compounding gets to be much more rapid and noticeable. I'm not there yet, but I can see it happening with my own account. I went from 40k-60k much faster than 20k-40k. +Remember when we said, “What if Robinhood started trading paper Bitcoin without holding actual Bitcoin?”. This is what happens when a dishonest company needs more capital fast and the chances of your RH BTC positions being non-collateralized have literally never been higher. Further, the chances of RH failing as a company have never been higher. + +Look into the faces of the young CEOs who made their fortunes by deceiving retail investors and selling them out via order flow. Do you really want to let these guys hold your BTC? + +For the next 24 hours I will personally answer any questions that any of you may have about liquidating your RH positions and getting into a real exchange or decentralized marketplace (like BISQ) + +Do the right thing because it’s also the smart thing and because you low key always knew you should have been +If you believe in crypto you are in it longterm. For those that are exiting, just know you would have never held until now had you bought at sub dollar prices. + +You can only beat the algorithm and high frequency traders if you hold longterm. Crypto is a long play. +&#x200B; + +**Edit.** + +Thanks for all your suggestions and support. + +I've received news from localbitcoins, I will update this once the authorities get in touch and decide course of action. + +&#x200B; + +In may 2015 [/BTC-OTC/](https://localbitcoins.com/p/BTC-OTC/) scammed me and other 6 persons using bank transfer chargeback which led to my bank account being closed and all my funds frozen for 45 days. At the time BTC-OTC was one of the most reputable traders on Localbitcoins. + +I shortly reported this to localbitcoins.com whitch led to BTC-OTC's account being banned and funds being locked - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhjCz/37f0ab1fc8.png) also made a police fraud complaint to the relevant authority in UK + +Localbitcoins freezed the funds stating the following in my support ticket - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmDT/0a136c253b.png) + +Since then I've been actively trying to get my coins with no result receiving only one single reply on my support ticket in 8 months + +When contacting Max on linkedin his reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmJU/01610eaef4.png) + +When contacting Max on reddit his reply was - [ HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmIn/71ff537bcf.png) nevertheless 6 months passed with no reply on my ticket. + +I emailed Jeremias Kangas (CEO & Founder of LBC) with no success. Also in my numerous visits at Metropolitan Police with this issue I was advised the same, this is a localbitcoins.com customer service issue not a legal issue. + +Police official statement on my complaint - [ HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmOd/9045da5342.png) + +National Fraud Intelligence Bureau advised to change my fraud complaint against localbitcoins in order for them to investigate and contact localbitcoins regarding the case. + +After 6 months of waiting, Max's reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmTD/d93973a8bf.png) , after sharing all the info on both support ticket and email he replied on email [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmXK/a213a8d27b.png) + +I knew this won't go anywhere so meanwhile I found a Metropolitan Police Sergeant specialized in blockchain and cyber-crime that understood this issue and decided to help me by contacting them using the fraud report I made in 2015. + +Almost 2 months passed since he contacted localbitcoins (3 times) receiving no reply. + +Reason I'm posting this is because there are other 5 persons in this very situation, also other hundreds based on the posts complaining online. + +Now I'm in the process of taking legal action. I've been in contact with over 40 lawyers from Finland, and found only 2 that are looking to take this case and quoted me at €10.000 to €15.000 for civil proceedings, + +Finnish Law allows only Ombudsman to initiate a class action lawsuit so this can be settled only in civil court + +If you are a victim of this or you can help please get in touch. +Found this nice moneysense article that has a list of 100 dividend stocks. Thought I would share + +&#x200B; + +[https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/stocks/top-100-dividend-stocks/](https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/stocks/top-100-dividend-stocks/) +Found this nice moneysense article that has a list of 100 dividend stocks. Thought I would share + +&#x200B; + +[https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/stocks/top-100-dividend-stocks/](https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/stocks/top-100-dividend-stocks/) +I see a lot of complaints online about boomers holding on to the majority of the wealth and the younger generations are getting shafted without a way to build their wealth. I find this (static view) hard to believe, as the boomers can't really take their wealth beyond the grave, and the younger generation will have to, by definition, acquire wealth that is passed on in due time. Is this not the case? Why are some millennials complaining when the boomer wealth simply \_must go somewhere\_ in a few decades? + +Assuming boomers cannot take wealth beyond grave, where do the money actually go? Is there a study of how wealth transfers across generation due to the passing of members of the older generation? Do they mostly get gobbled up by family, or government, or the real-estate market? Or is the wealth going to simply "pass through" the millennials from their inheritance straight to the debt collectors such as student loans? +Hey guys, I was scrolling through social media and stumbled upon a tiktok video. The dude in the video was saying things like boomers at this age owned something like 25% or like 20% of the world's wealth whereas millenials own only 4%. He went on further to say stuff like that because the avg millienial earns $35000, it is practically impossible for them to own property due to boomers buying all the house and getting the prices up. + +He went on to say that back then you could live without a college degree and that most people could live a decent life just working in a store or something. + +Is this true? Did a boomer who was in their mid 20s to 30s really have a better life than the avg person who is mid 20 to 30 now? +&#x200B; + +**Edit.** + +Thanks for all your suggestions and support. + +I've received news from localbitcoins, I will update this once the authorities get in touch and decide course of action. + +&#x200B; + +In may 2015 [/BTC-OTC/](https://localbitcoins.com/p/BTC-OTC/) scammed me and other 6 persons using bank transfer chargeback which led to my bank account being closed and all my funds frozen for 45 days. At the time BTC-OTC was one of the most reputable traders on Localbitcoins. + +I shortly reported this to localbitcoins.com whitch led to BTC-OTC's account being banned and funds being locked - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhjCz/37f0ab1fc8.png) also made a police fraud complaint to the relevant authority in UK + +Localbitcoins freezed the funds stating the following in my support ticket - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmDT/0a136c253b.png) + +Since then I've been actively trying to get my coins with no result receiving only one single reply on my support ticket in 8 months + +When contacting Max on linkedin his reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmJU/01610eaef4.png) + +When contacting Max on reddit his reply was - [ HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmIn/71ff537bcf.png) nevertheless 6 months passed with no reply on my ticket. + +I emailed Jeremias Kangas (CEO & Founder of LBC) with no success. Also in my numerous visits at Metropolitan Police with this issue I was advised the same, this is a localbitcoins.com customer service issue not a legal issue. + +Police official statement on my complaint - [ HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmOd/9045da5342.png) + +National Fraud Intelligence Bureau advised to change my fraud complaint against localbitcoins in order for them to investigate and contact localbitcoins regarding the case. + +After 6 months of waiting, Max's reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmTD/d93973a8bf.png) , after sharing all the info on both support ticket and email he replied on email [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmXK/a213a8d27b.png) + +I knew this won't go anywhere so meanwhile I found a Metropolitan Police Sergeant specialized in blockchain and cyber-crime that understood this issue and decided to help me by contacting them using the fraud report I made in 2015. + +Almost 2 months passed since he contacted localbitcoins (3 times) receiving no reply. + +Reason I'm posting this is because there are other 5 persons in this very situation, also other hundreds based on the posts complaining online. + +Now I'm in the process of taking legal action. I've been in contact with over 40 lawyers from Finland, and found only 2 that are looking to take this case and quoted me at €10.000 to €15.000 for civil proceedings, + +Finnish Law allows only Ombudsman to initiate a class action lawsuit so this can be settled only in civil court + +If you are a victim of this or you can help please get in touch. +I'm at a crossroads in my life and need your advice. + +I turn 30 soon and have a cushy low-stress government desk job that pays $67k/year before taxes + benefits (health insurance, up to 3% matching for 401k, paid holidays, generous paid annual/sick leave each year, free gym) + +I've been working this job for 10 years but for the past 5 years I've also worked in my spare time and built a side business involving video production. I have a YouTube channel with 100,000+ subscribers, a corresponding blog, and I do wedding/corporate videography. + +My total side income reached $130k net income in 2018 before taxes. + +I currently have no debt and nearly $500k net worth ($100k in cash, $260k in house/car, $100k in retirement, and the rest in taxable investments) + +Wife makes $55k/year and has health insurance. We are thinking of trying for a baby next year. + +I'm torn between quitting my job to work full time for myself or staying at my cushy yet soul-sucking job for at least a few more years to milk it as much as I can. + +I feel like this is the perfect time for me to venture out and give self employment a try. I'm still relatively young but I've built up a good amount savings and have no debt. However I'm scared to give up such a high paying job with great benefits. + +What do you think I should do? Any advice is hugely appreciated! +Throwaway account for reasons that will be explained below. + +I have been following this sub for a while now. I do not come from money, but about 15 years ago I co-founded a fintech company that has become successful. For the last 3 or 4 years I have felt lost at the company, not really finding a role I liked. Played with the idea of selling my shares. + +Summer 2021 I finally decided that I wanted out. Sold my shares, quit, netted about $20M. Until that day I had never sold a single share and was living not paycheck to paycheck, but just a normal life. My wife of course knows about the money, but none of my friends nor my immediate family. In fact, they were probably not even aware of that I was a founder of the company. I just don't like to talk about that. I literally celebrated the sell by ordering food home, something we never do. + +I thought it would be a blessing, but now 6 months later I'm probably literally depressed. I and my wife simply don't know what to do with our lives. My wife keeps working, and I basically take care of the children and play video games all while saying to friends and family that I work from home. + +I realize that my company was my "life" and without it, I had no daily purpose. I'm blessed with basically infinite resources and angry that I even dare to say I'm depressed. Has anyone here had any similiar experience? I think what I'm mostly afraid of is that the money will destroy my relationship with friends and family. Like histories you read about lottery winnings. + +$20M might not even be an insane number in this sub, but, while $20M is roughly correct I do not live in USA and our current life costs around the equivalent of $50k. + +**Edit:** + +Thank you for the many great replies. They have given me many things to think about, and I'm happy to read that I shouldn't be ashamed of my state of mind. As several noted, it is very likely that my depression started years ago but I managed to mask it by keeping myself occupied in the company. Though I don't regret leaving my company, I did leave without a plan in place. + +**Edit 2:** + +I have decided to talk to a therapist and see where it takes me. My main concern is how to manage everything while still maintaining my relationships. My inbox is currently full of messages from people asking for money for either rent, gifts or investments. Makes me just want to give everything to someone to manage long-term, give myself enough to maintain current lifestyle and make a white lie about working remotely as a consultant whenever someone asks what I do. +Let's not forget who the real culprits were: Wall Street and Big Banks. + +[https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535](https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535) +This was inspired by a thread I saw earlier. There's a lot of things poor people do that wouldn't occur to people with more money. Like watering down milk or juice to make it last longer. Or cutting off the top of shampoo bottles to really get to the last drop. What are your poor people's habits? +You've learned to hold through dips that would only happen in the most brutal market crashes. From $450 to $40? First blood. From $260 to $120? From $300 to $135? From $250 to $90? Last blood. There are few investors that have been through these types of portfolio crashes in their lifetimes, and you did it in a year. If you held through this type of manipulation and these dips, more than likely you have the emotionless thousand *bar* stare. Your eyes are dead. Red bars, green bars, the sideways trading guy, the battle for $180, the ladder shorting, Ken Griffin's shit face, the elliott wave guy, the battle for $180, the dorito of doom, the hype days, the hurts again, the moass tomorrow, the battle for $180, the cycles... it doesn't matter anymore. They have accidentally created the navy seals, the SBS, the KSK, the SASR, the damn Snow Wolf Commando Unit of the stock market. With the option players turning into a Delta force. Together, GMErica has become an elite group of special op retarded ape investors that have been through emotional torture, psychological warfare, mind games, manipulation, computer algorithms designed to break your morale and spirit, and even the separation from your family and friends due the mainstream media's propaganda war against your investment choices. And you're still here. Not only are you still here, a lot of you, tired and exhausted, are still loading your ammo again and direct registering your shares. This sends the message to the hedge funds that you will die before you sell your shares for less than a phone number. There will never be investors like you again. + +&#x200B; + +Unfortunately at this point a lot of us suffer from post traumatic stock disorder and we'll never be the same. Sometimes we see a buy button, squint and rub our eyes, and the buy button is gone. Then it's back again. Are you losing it? Was that real? Is the price even real? It doesn't matter anymore. We're not leaving. But when this is over, and MOASS has happened, I've heard from some of you, you will be putting down your trading app and walking away forever. I hope not, because you will be missed. But if that is what you choose to do, it was a honor making my own individual choice and investing in a stock that I liked and that you happen to like and be invested in as well. + +&#x200B; + +Buy / Hold / DRS + +&#x200B; + +*For those of you that do stick around, you've seriously developed the skills, emotional detachment and control, knowledge, resolution, and a lot of attributes you'd need to become even more successful,* ***even*** *within this system. See you Monday.* +Lost my entire life savings of 30k last year trading options. This year I was able to get a loan and line of credit and I lost all of that. Now in debt $22,000 on a $36,000 income with $1600 rent and $200 utilities. Girlfriend has no idea how irresponsible I am. Any idea how to recover? I don’t want to trade anymore it destroyed my life. +I used to like this sub because it let me know that there are other people fighting to raise themselves up, just like me. You could find tips on all sorts of subjects and generally helpful posts. But the second someone posts something about how to save money and dig yourself out, everyone seems to lose it. I get that not everyone can save money, but the point is for you to eventually work your way to a point where you can. I am one of those people. There was a time where my wife and I only ate because we both worked at McDonald's. All the food we bought for the house was for the kids. There was no money left. We could barely pay rent. So we both started working towards goals of moving up and out. My wife made it out first. She went from the grill girl to being the area supervisor of 4 different stores. Took 9 years, but it happened. I'm now comfortable in a grocery manager position that pays $17.50 hr. I guess what I'm saying is that nobody should paint themselves into a corner and accept defeat. I'm a high school dropout with no formal education, and my wife has done things even I didn't realize were possible to move up. I took a fuck ton of work, and 11 years altogether, but its slowly paying off. Don't knock someone for having high goals and making it happen, just be there for each other and support others. This sub gave me lots of encouragement many times, but I just hate to see all the negative energy being put out. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk. + +Edit: I just came home from work and had no idea how much this would blow up. Didn't mean to start a war. I get that there are truly some unavoidable situations such as deaths and disasters and disabilities that will truly fuck you over. In those cases it's almost impossible to make it without help. But for anyone who doesn't fall into that category, I personally feel that if you truly put forth real effort to make positive change, you can make your life better. And for those complaining that I'm generalizing, yes i am. There are a lot of good and helpful posts and comments. In fact, they're the majority. But don't rain on someone's parade because you're pissed about your situation. It's totally cool to even make a post to vent those frustrations out to the world. Get it off your chest. Everyone needs to at some point. But you can also take that same energy after you've vented and put it to work for you. Make a positive change. You're going to fail at many points. Its inevitable. But eventually you will find your way out. Stay positive. + +Final edit: since it has been pointed out that I have not given enough actual advice, message me if you want to. I truly don't mind helping if I can. And on the off chance you live in the Amherst, VA area, I'm looking for grocery stockers to hire. Just putting it out there just in case. +So I was out with few work people not friends. Came time to pay the bill. And somehow this loud lady in the group decided on a 15% tip. + +I said hold on… this isn’t US and I don’t support tipping at all. I hate everything it stands for, its origins and what it represents. And we got into this argument about how servers do it tough etc etc. In the end some people tipped and some including me didn’t. I probably won’t be asked to go on this work shit again, which to me is a positive but I am wondering if I should have just shut my mouth. What are your thoughts? +&#x200B; + +**Edit.** + +Thanks for all your suggestions and support. + +I've received news from localbitcoins, I will update this once the authorities get in touch and decide course of action. + +&#x200B; + +In may 2015 [/BTC-OTC/](https://localbitcoins.com/p/BTC-OTC/) scammed me and other 6 persons using bank transfer chargeback which led to my bank account being closed and all my funds frozen for 45 days. At the time BTC-OTC was one of the most reputable traders on Localbitcoins. + +I shortly reported this to localbitcoins.com whitch led to BTC-OTC's account being banned and funds being locked - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhjCz/37f0ab1fc8.png) also made a police fraud complaint to the relevant authority in UK + +Localbitcoins freezed the funds stating the following in my support ticket - [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmDT/0a136c253b.png) + +Since then I've been actively trying to get my coins with no result receiving only one single reply on my support ticket in 8 months + +When contacting Max on linkedin his reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmJU/01610eaef4.png) + +When contacting Max on reddit his reply was - [ HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmIn/71ff537bcf.png) nevertheless 6 months passed with no reply on my ticket. + +I emailed Jeremias Kangas (CEO & Founder of LBC) with no success. Also in my numerous visits at Metropolitan Police with this issue I was advised the same, this is a localbitcoins.com customer service issue not a legal issue. + +Police official statement on my complaint - [ HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmOd/9045da5342.png) + +National Fraud Intelligence Bureau advised to change my fraud complaint against localbitcoins in order for them to investigate and contact localbitcoins regarding the case. + +After 6 months of waiting, Max's reply was - [HERE](http://puu.sh/BhmTD/d93973a8bf.png) , after sharing all the info on both support ticket and email he replied on email [HERE](https://puu.sh/BhmXK/a213a8d27b.png) + +I knew this won't go anywhere so meanwhile I found a Metropolitan Police Sergeant specialized in blockchain and cyber-crime that understood this issue and decided to help me by contacting them using the fraud report I made in 2015. + +Almost 2 months passed since he contacted localbitcoins (3 times) receiving no reply. + +Reason I'm posting this is because there are other 5 persons in this very situation, also other hundreds based on the posts complaining online. + +Now I'm in the process of taking legal action. I've been in contact with over 40 lawyers from Finland, and found only 2 that are looking to take this case and quoted me at €10.000 to €15.000 for civil proceedings, + +Finnish Law allows only Ombudsman to initiate a class action lawsuit so this can be settled only in civil court + +If you are a victim of this or you can help please get in touch. +[https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/michael-burry-of-the-big-short-reveals-a-530-million-bet-against-tesla.html) + +&#x200B; + +* **Michael Burry bought more than 800,000 Tesla put options contracts in the first quarter worth $534.4 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.** +* **Burry was one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis.** +* **Burry previously mentioned in a tweet, that Tesla’s reliance on regulatory credits to generate profits is also an impediment to the company’s long-term prospects** + +&#x200B; + +>Famed investor Michael Burry on Monday revealed a short position against [Tesla](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/TSLA) worth more than half a billion, in a regulatory filing. +> +>Burry, one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis, bought more than 800,000 Tesla put options contracts in the first quarter worth $534.4 million, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Investors profit from puts when the underlying securities fall in prices. +> +>Shares of Tesla fell more than 4% on Monday, bringing its month-to-date losses to more than 20%. +According to Wikipedia, the United States has the seventh highest nominal GDP per capita in the world and the eighth highest PPP GDP per capita. And most of the countries ranked higher than it are very small and generate their money through oil (Norway, Qatar) or banking (Switzerland). Also according to Wikipedia, the US has the highest median household income. + +So what explains this? Why is America so rich, even compared to other developed countries? +I'm mostly interested in inequality economics, conductual economics, marketing, finance and game theory but I could read any good book about economics. +I've made about 500k in capital gains in the last 2 weeks and I have put all of it into another position. Do I need to pay quarterly taxes on these gains or can I wait until April next year? I thought I would just be taxed on my net profit at the end of the year but now I hear that if you make a lot of money that you have to pay tax quarterly. This is the first time i've ever made this amount of money. + +Edit: https://imgur.com/a/qz4DLAw +I just had informal conversation with a colleague of mine after work today and she was telling me about how much she's struggling to pay bills and save with the salary she makes. I started just around 2 months before she did but we work in the same position & department and we had pretty similar job experience before joining this company. She asked how I was managing with £27,000 per year, but I got surprised and unintentionally mentioned that I am paid £36,000. + +Needless to say she was very unhappy when she found out about the difference and will bring it up with our boss. Am I in any trouble here? + +EDIT: hey all didn't know this would blow up. Just wanted to share more info: I am a man. When I had my interview I went back and forth 3 times with the hiring manager and HR with pay because I didn't like the offer, I was initially offered £30k but at that time I had 2 other offers and I gave them an ultimatum that if I wasn't getting £36k then I'm not taking it. I'm in London. I don't know what my co-worker did and if she even tried to negotiate at all, we aren't that close personally. From what I observe she seems to be a 'yes person', never really argues at work whereas I tend to be more stubborn, so if regards to gender pay gap if that's what it is. Probably a lesson is fight what you think you're worth. + +**FINAL UPDATE - REVISIONS FORTHCOMING** + +Thank you for the compliments and scrutiny. Based on my synthesis of the comments, I need to revise the analysis to factor in a couple things, one of which I know I can and one of which I will need to research. + +1. It is theoretically possible to eliminate some # of short positions on days in which short volume exceeds 50%, though any terrain people would have to do so on GameStop is significantly curtailed by the buy and hold power exercised by retail (which can be estimated with empirical data as I did here). Here is an exchange covering this idea... + +https://preview.redd.it/s5q3r93awi381.png?width=650&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee78ffa827ab58cf00950ebc79be79dc93959494 + +2. There may be no good way to account for non-media transactions that never make their way to the final counts of trade volume. This would introduce error into the short volume % (though not the count of short volume). [Some claim](https://blog.otcmarkets.com/2018/11/13/understanding-short-sale-activity/) short volume data are essentially meaningless. However, thanks to retail's buying and diamond-handing the issue of non-media transactions may be less prevalent for GameStop than for almost any other stock. I need to study this out more before proceeding. + +I will leave this post up for now (I don't think the DD flair can be changed), but I am happy to take down if mods think it is best. Thanks again for your time and interest and the flood of helpful comments. Time to unjack the tits just a little bit and go DRS some more shares. + +**TLDR** + +Daily volume data, including short volume data (which is not the same thing as short interest) for 81% of all GME stock trades since January 2021, suggest short positions were never at any time fully closed and that short interest on GameStop is now, at a minimum, 4 times higher than peak levels reported for January. This minimum calculation for minimum total short interest is grounded in a tenuous (unlikely) assumption that as many short positions as mathematically possible are closed each and every trading day. + +**\*Update based on smattering of comments\*** + +To clarify, I am *not* trying to calculate true or exact short interest--either in the aggregate or for any particular day. Rather, I am tying to two concepts, (1) minimum amount of new short positions created and (2) maximum number of eliminated short positions, both of which are based on daily short volume (not "short interest") and total trade volume (including dark pool volume) to estimate a *minimum* amount of running, total short interest. I do not and cannot estimate what the current short interest is. + +**Overview of short interest** + +Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not been covered or closed out (i.e., bought back). Short interest %, arguably more important, is that total number of short positions divided by the total number of shares—either shares outstanding (all issued shares whether owned by company insiders or the public) or the float—the number of shares available to the public (e.g., institutions and individual investors) for trading. + +Twice a month, FINRA (a private agency that regulates exchange markets) requires that firms report every short interest position in every security (i.e., stock) in every single account. So, short interest data shared by FINRA are supposed to be complete, but the data are always out of date and self-reported to a private corporation that is not directly accountable to the public, but rather overseen by the SEC. + +[Figure 1 - That face when people ask about the latest short interest you self-reported to FINRA](https://preview.redd.it/uxz5qfidwi381.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddbe12738d58799b3b814aad3cfa7bc077a3acc7) + +**Short interest in January 2021** + +Reported short interest from FINRA and others on GameStop now stands at \~10%. The situation was very different in January 2021. Though data-driven estimates for exact short interest % vary both in range and by date, they all agree that short interest in GME exceeded 100% of shares outstanding in January 2021. This means some bona fide shares had been sold short more than once and/or market makers (e.g., Citadel Securities) had created and lent synthetic shares but had yet to locate and take claim of real shares in order to close out the synthetics. Table 1 provides a summary of the available estimates and a synthesis of them to create the starting point for calculations to come. + +&#x200B; + +[Table 1 - Data-driven estimates of short interest in GameStop | January 2021](https://preview.redd.it/wx6fh2ujwi381.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e74453a171b6134351cf5527794072412cc5302) + +**Daily minimum # of new short positions** + +Each trading day, some percentage of the total volume of trades on a stock is sold short—not just sold, but rather borrowed and then sold. On days in which the volume sold short exceeds 50% of total volume, by sheer mathematical force, aggregate short positions increase. For example, let’s say that a total of 100 shares of a certain stock are traded in a single day. If 60 of those shares are sold short, then at the end of the day, the minimum # of new shorts created is 20. The remaining daily volume would allow for 40 short positions to be closed (i.e., bought back) but we must not forget about the 60 also created on this day. This is perhaps best conveyed visually: + +[Figure 2- Short selling more than 50&#37; of volume on a trading day increases total short interest](https://preview.redd.it/otro3n2mwi381.png?width=1338&format=png&auto=webp&s=3342287902fb0e936cd95168d729c18c41125f86) + +In the visual, the white bar, if overlapped on top of the red bar, would leave 20 red shares uncovered, meaning net total short interest increased. It is mathematically impossible for total short interest to stay level or decrease on such days—it must go up. + +**Daily maximum # of eliminated short positions** + +On days in which the % of volume sold short is below 50% of the total volume, it is possible for aggregate short positions to decrease. Let us now invert the example of 100 total shares of a particular stock being traded on a single day. If 30 of those shares are sold short, then at the end of the day, the maximum # of eliminated shorts is 40. Yes, the remaining volume allows for 70 short positions to be closed (i.e., bought back), but we must not lose sight of the 30 that were created this day. Here is the visual illustration: + +[Figure 3 - Opportunities to reduce short interest emerge on days when short sale volume is less than 50&#37; of total volume](https://preview.redd.it/4egn5k1qwi381.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ac1ea06dc26b8cb1520a8bb2b405c6c7c3a7fc6) + +In the visual, the red bar, if doubled, would leave some white space uncovered, meaning it is theoretically possible on this day for total short interest to be reduced. Because the 30 shares sold short would first need to be closed before short interest can be reduced, the maximum window for closing out short positions is confined to the final 40 shares. + +Since January 4th, the first day of trading in 2021, 59% of GameStop’s volume has been sold short. On most trading days then, 85% of them to be precise, the % of volume sold short has exceeded 50% of the total volume—which means that the net outcome on most days is an increase in aggregate short positions. As shown in Table 2, the likelihood that short volume exceeds 50% of total volume declines as daily volume increases. On low volume days, it is almost always the case that short volume exceeds 50% of total volume. + +[Table 2 - GameStop volume sold short by range of total daily volume | January 4th - November 26th, 2021](https://preview.redd.it/j8mas9mswi381.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=8535c73d0db535c9038bdfb98b5b2a839f077ca1) + +**Identifying the market terrain where short positions can be closed – The incredible power of buy and hold** + +Stock trade orders are routed to one of many different venues for execution. As summarized by Nasdaq, almost all retail trades (i.e., those of individual investors) are routed “off-exchange” by brokers to a trade report facility (TRF). Why? Market makers, such as Citadel Securities, who operate the facilities pay brokers to send them the trades for execution. By temporarily holding orders in a TRF (for even just a couple of seconds) before execution and concurrently deploying practices such as (a) algorithmic trading designed to nudge market prices and (b) drawing from their own cache of stocks to complete trades (a practice called “internalizing”), market makers manage to execute retail trades at the quoted price or better, reward brokers for sending the order, and generate their own direct cut on the deal. At first blush, the feat is remarkable and laudable—Citadel Securities would tell you so. A closer examination of mechanisms at work (e.g., executing sell orders on exchange to lower stock prices and executing buy orders off exchange to limit stock price increases) suggest that individual retail investors, can be left in a net unfavorable position—even if their trade was executed at as good as a price or better than what they agreed to. + +According to Nasdaq, \~ 1/3rd of trades for all stocks are executed off-exchange in TRFs, including the \~12% of trades executed in dark pools—exclusive TRFs available only to institutions that allow for trades to be made without others seeing them (or “in the dark”) before the trade is complete. Critics of dark pools note that they obscure price discovery and enable abusive tactics. + +&#x200B; + +[Figure 4 - Distribution of trades in US Market | Oct - Nov 2018; credit to Nasdaq](https://preview.redd.it/imquwmvvwi381.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=6581f6ba191ae6ce1116f12a645aa65b9bb39301) + +The distribution of trades executed for shares of GameStop differs from the picture shown above. As shown in Figure 5, 42% of GameStop trades are executed at off-exchange TRFs, but only 8% make their way to dark pools. Daily volume also shapes the distribution of trades with off exchange percentages generally increasing whenever daily volume increases. + +&#x200B; + +[Figure 5 - Comparison of where GameStop trades are routed for execution](https://preview.redd.it/68n3g09ywi381.png?width=578&format=png&auto=webp&s=7055c0bf5ce4578faa4b3c1bafa353c693f59f67) + +Second, and more critical to this analysis itself, trades for GameStop executed in the TRF space are overwhelming buy orders. Though publicly available data address only the number of trade orders executed each day rather than specific volume counts, most retail trades (typically 80% to 90%+) are orders to buy GameStop, not sell it. So, if retail has indeed bought the float and retail is holding and not selling, who is on the sell side of the trade? Groups like investment and pension funds certainly provide some liquidity when they chose to sell off shares, but their general investment strategy is to buy and hold equities they believe will increase in value. Any liquidity they provide is intermittent and sporadic. + +For thinly traded, illiquid stocks such as GameStop, it is often market makers themselves who end up on the sell side of the trade for buy orders that come from retail. Market makers are required to maintain working pools of bona fide shares from which to draw, but these lack the scale necessary to satisfy all demand when buying pressure is significant. To fulfill buy orders in times of high demand, market makers rely on synthetic shares they create “out of thin air.” This something from nothing approach to market making allows for continual market activity (e.g., buying) even when selling parties are not to be found. A market maker has the right to and is even required to create and sell you shares when no external seller is lined up. + +Here is how Ken Griffin described Citadel Securities’ role when speaking about the sudden upsurge in retail buying that occurred in late January 2021. + +>“During the period of frenzied retailed equities trading, Citadel Securities was able to provide continuous liquidity every minute of every trading day. When others were unable or unwilling to handle the heavy volumes, Citadel Securities was there....The magnitude of the orders routed to Citadel Securities reflects the confidence of the retail brokerage community in our firm’s ability to deliver in all market conditions.” + +Once a synthetic share is created and sold off, market makers have a finite window of time in which to use your money to locate and obtain (i.e., trade for) a real share and deliver it to you to replace the synthetic one you were given at the time of purchase. The current dynamics around GameStop make delivery of bona fide shares a virtually impossible task. Constant buying coupled with infinite holding mean there are no bona fide shares to pass through to retail. Yet market makers are required to have a stack of shares (usually 100) available for purchase at all times. Whenever they can find a group (e.g., a hedge fund) brazen even enough to take on new short positions in GameStop, those positions are offloaded. When not, the market maker is compelled to directly hold the short positions. + +Moreover, the buy and hold strategy retail has adopted for GameStop significantly reduces the terrain that can be canvassed for opportunities to close short positions. When, day in day out, an outsized portion of trade volume emanates from retail and 80+% of that volume is orders to buy, chances to purchase bona fide shares and close out (i.e., buy back) short positions become few and far between. + +Figure 6 illustrates this dynamic. From the perspective of market makers, the trading market for GameStop has become extremely disarranged. 42% of trades are executed at off-exchange TRFs—83% more than typical—and 80% to 90% or more of that volume is buy orders. Reducing short positions, let alone becoming position neutral, on highly illiquid and over-shorted stock like GME is a near-impossible task when daily confronted with new buy orders to fulfill. + +[Figure 6 - The terrain market makers and other firms must navigate when executing trades and seeking to close out short positions on GameStop](https://preview.redd.it/8lp1p6y6xi381.png?width=1780&format=png&auto=webp&s=362fbbba8ae5ac343fdc63fb5b4f1d8dd18d5d8e) + +Because retail trades on GameStop are continuously skewed toward buying—a sustained 85/15 mix looks nothing like a 50/50 mix—it is important to adjust (i.e., reduce) the daily terrain that can be canvassed by those looking to close out short positions in GameStop. This is particularly true in light retail already owning the entire float of GameStop (see due diligence done by multiple others to learn about the evidence thereof). When a new buy order from retail is now fulfilled, it is rarely if ever preceded by a successful hunt for bona fide shares. Rather, the selling party on the other side of the trade is almost always a market maker with a freshly minted synthetic. Thus, when looking at daily volume for GameStop and pockets of opportunity that emerge to close out short positions, I remove 80% of volume routed to off-exchange TRFs to account for retail’s sustained buying campaign despite the float already being owned and locked. + +https://preview.redd.it/782wxgoexi381.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=4802aca79d63d95d1fcdc94637a0de1885add328 + +**Calculating minimum total short interest over time** + +As summarized in Table 3, this analysis combines daily and weekly trade data obtained from Yahoo Finance, ChartExchange, and FINRA. While mostly complete, the data have gaps and limitations noted here. To my knowledge, this is the most complete picture possible with public data and no publicly available analysis has yet combined these sources to create daily estimates of total short interest in GameStop. + +&#x200B; + +[Table 3 - Data used to calculate minimum total short interest over time](https://preview.redd.it/zerp4fiixi381.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=067fbb510ef6984cbfd8bc8c49ef374948ce99b9) + +Starting with a short interest estimate of 77.8M short positions on January 15th (see explanation in previous section), I combine the data described above to create subsequent daily estimates of new and running total short interest based on the measures of (A) daily terrain to close short positions, (B) daily minimum # of new short positions created and (C) daily maximum # of eliminated short positions that were also described in earlier sections. Recall that the last two measures are very conservative (i.e., favorable to those with short positions) in that they assume every opportunity to close a short position in GameStop is always taken. Here are the formulas expressed semi-mathematically in case helpful: + +[Table 4 - Formulas used](https://preview.redd.it/5puuwtrkxi381.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7c0d74523a5279d6ad2d5895d88ed744cb40742) + +**Findings** + +Figure 7 illustrates daily estimates for total, aggregate short interest based on measures of daily minimum number of new shorts positions created and the daily maximum # of eliminated short positions. + +[Figure 7 - Estimated minimum # of total short positions based on daily minimum # of new short positions and daily maximum # of eliminated short positions](https://preview.redd.it/aisbktmrxi381.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=139dc085f82ff34ffa2427905842bcbdba2aeffd) + +Though theoretically possible that short interest temporarily declined on January 15th and for several days after, it does not appear that all historical short positions could have been closed because when minimum total short interest reached its nadir on Tuesday, January 26th, at least 8.3M short positions remained open on GameStop at day’s end—notwithstanding the fact that as many as 22.3M short positions could have been closed that very same day. In brief, (a) short interest starting out at too a high of a level coupled with (b) the stock price jumping to too high of a level coupled with (c) exponential and overwhelming growth in buy orders for GameStop created a situation where “shorts never closed”—and could never close. + +The following day, January 27th, the price of GameStop skyrocketed 135% to close at $348. Due to aggressive short selling (56% of all volume) that day, aggregate short interest on that same day rose by a minimum of 11.2M shares back up to 19.6M minimum total short positions. On Thursday January 28th, the same day many brokers restricted retail’s ability to buy GameStop, short sellers were only in position to close a maximum of 2.6M short positions. + +In the few weeks that immediately followed, minimum total short interest hovered in the 15M to 25M range before skyrocketing again on February 24th, the same day that saw a 104% increase in Gamestop’s price per share. The rise in minimum total short interest continued through late March. Since that point, a gradual, day by day increase in minimum total short interest has been the defining pattern. As of November 26th, 2021, minimum total short interest on GameStop appears to be comprised of 325.9M open short positions, or 419% short interest of the float. + +**Playing with core assumptions** + +There are four core assumptions within this analysis: + +1. Retail owns the float of GameStop. Based on the due diligence of others, it seems clear that retail owns the float and probably another three or four synthetic copies of it at a minimum. There is perhaps question as to when it was locked away for good but I would guess as soon as late January and no later than early March based simply on examining patterns in trade volume. This assumption “is what it is” and I do not intend to play with it now. Take it or leave it. +2. Short interest exceeded the float in January 2021. Table 1 provides a list of the estimates and my synthesis thereof. Because there is no unequivocal source of truth on the matter, I will hold to the assumption that \~77.8M short positions existed in GameStop on January 15, 2021. Fixing this assumption here makes it more easy to communicate changes to findings when the remaining two assumptions are shifted… +3. 100% of opportunities to close short positions in GameStop are always taken. This assumption is likely extreme but needed to be fixed in place to see whether mathematically possible for shorts to close out and for current short interest to be near the 10% level that is reported today. I will relax this assumption and use a range of 60% to 100% for seizing of opportunities to close short positions. +4. Based on trade-level data available from Fidelity, retail volume (in terms # of shares) for GameStop is assumed to be heavily weighted toward buying over selling. I will play with this assumption by allowing for a range of buying between 60% and 90%. + +As shown in Table 5, seizing upon windows to close short positions appears to be a much a more powerful driver of estimated minimum total short interest than the buy versus sell volume percentages in off-exchange TRFs. I do not know enough about how firms in the financial services industry behavior to directly speculate about how often they avail themselves of opportunities to close short positions, but in the paraphrased words of Mark Cuban, “their goal is to never close.” + +[Table 5 - Range of estimates for minimum total short interest on GameStop by November 26th, 2021 | \*number reported in main analysis](https://preview.redd.it/7fjrvvlvxi381.png?width=1276&format=png&auto=webp&s=61ba6d2a699234903a542ac991cc55ad4a89a223) + +**Known Limitations | \*UPDATED - SEE DISCLAIMER UP TOP\*** + +1. As noted in Table 3, not every exchange makes daily short volume data available to the public. Without this data, I am blind to about 19% of exchange activity—I can see the total volume of shares traded on each of these exchanges, but I cannot be certain of the number (or lack thereof) of executed trades that are short sales. To the extent short sellers’ behavior on these exchanges fundamentally differs from their behavior on more visible exchanges in ways that matter (e.g., pure buying and no short-selling), the lack of visibility introduces error. +2. Dark pool data exist at the weekly-level. As described in an earlier section, I have been methodical about how I have distributed dark pool volumes across the individual trading days within each week and this process suggests and general rational and consistency to use of dark pools, but it is not outside the realm of possibility that some days see meaningfully more or less dark pool volume than I estimate. For example, I can neither observe nor adjust any strange behavior like, “We short double on Mondays and not at all on Thursdays.” +3. I do not definitively know when (or if I suppose) the float was locked by retail. It seems possible it was not locked at the date that this analysis begins (January 15, 2021) and I have not really looked at how they might shape ability to close short positions and/or calculations of minimum total short interest. + +**In conclusion** + +In short, I like the stock. Hedgies r wReKt. Call your mom. BUY, HODL, DRS. Diamond hands to infinity. + +Also: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial professional nor am I qualified to offer financial advice. This study has not been peer-reviewed let alone ape-reviewed. Known assumptions and limitations have been communicated. There are likely others. Inform yourself and make your own financial decisions. + +© u/bobbobberstein +I’m 39, and a few years out from retiring (43). My net worth is about $3 million. And the only real job I’ve ever had is in the Army. I own three rental properties because the army makes me move every few years. (In 16 years I’ve never had a problem filling a house next to a military base) + +The leadership tells me how to get promoted. There’s no politics in it until (maybe) O6 (colonel). + +Strategically there’s three rules. +1) be an officer +2) volunteer for every deployment to a tax free zone. +3) don’t get divorced. + +It’s not easy, but the money is guaranteed. + +My pension is going to be worth about $63k a year. (With my portfolio, Is this FatFIRE?) +Sup guys + +My dad has a lump sum of 600k that he wants to use to supplement his income and generate 3k regularly every month, at least for the next 12 months or so. I've been considering several strategies: + +* just put it all in QYLG, get that 0.5% every month and some growth and just forget about it - or use another covered call ETF like JEPI/XYLD/XYLG +* replicate that strategy manually by selling monthly covered calls +* sell 1 year out covered calls for 36k, e.g. buy 2000 shares of QQQ and sell 20x September 2023 355 calls (16% OTM) - or similar with SPY +* or what I personally would do (I'm all in TSLA): same as above but with TSLA, except the call could be like 85% OTM. Not sure if he'd be open to that. + +Note: taxes are not a factor here + +Any recommendations or other ideas? + Token SCIA +PreICO Price 1 SCIA = 0.15 USD +Price 1 SCI = 0.15 USD +Bonus Available +Platform Ethereum +Accepting BTC, ETH, LTC, Fiat +Minimum investment 0.4 ETH +Soft cap 3,000,000 USD +Hard cap 36,000,000 USD +Country Gibraltar +Whitelist/KYC KYC +Restricted areas USA, China, Cuba, Iran, Korea, Syria, Crimea + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/0f7z2wovvws11.jpg + Token SCIA +PreICO Price 1 SCIA = 0.15 USD +Price 1 SCI = 0.15 USD +Bonus Available +Platform Ethereum +Accepting BTC, ETH, LTC, Fiat +Minimum investment 0.4 ETH +Soft cap 3,000,000 USD +Hard cap 36,000,000 USD +Country Gibraltar +Whitelist/KYC KYC +Restricted areas USA, China, Cuba, Iran, Korea, Syria, Crimea + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/0f7z2wovvws11.jpg +This is an amazing sub, but a bit depressing from time to time if you read those numbers. So I just wanted to point out that you don't actually need 10mil to fatfire. For those who want to retire soon. + +A lot of members who post here live in XHCOL areas like L.A. or NY, which is fine, but those numbers don't make sense for most other people. Mainly for Europeans. + +So to my fellow Europeans or those who would consider retiring here, keep in mind, no need to accumulate 10mil. + +I live in Belgium but plan to retire early in Portugal. Which has a lower cost of living but better temperatures, a great culture and some of the best waves in the world if you are into surfing. + +I am absolutely sure that me, my wife and my dog could have an amazing life over there (FIRE) for about 3k-4k a month after taxes. I know, this is a Fatfire sub. So if you like the finer things in life and you would have 10k a month after taxes, you make about 10x more than the locals do. You will be able to rent about any place you want or even live in a hotel, have a couple of sports cars available, fly furst class and spend your days however you like. Easily. + +So thats 120k per year. Using the 3% rule = €4mil conservatively. + +IF you are American and you have 4-6mil now and you don't want to waste any more precious years of your life, know that these numbers work in most European countries that are mentioned as Fire locations. Greece, Italy, Malta, the Canarian islands, Spain etc and will give you even more for your money if you like Eastern europe. + +UPDATE: lol this seems to be controversial. A lot of Europeans agree with me. Keep in mind that healthcare, education etc is almost free in EU. And i understand that London is expensive. It depends on where you plan to retire. Just wanted to add that wealth is a ratio between your income and expenses. If you need 1mil a year to live comfortably, that's fine too! But you are in the top 5% of even this sub. So no need to comment that you spend 120k a month ;) + +UPDATE 2: it has now become a discussion on whether what I describe is FAT or ChubbyFIRE. I totally understand your points, and yes what I described may be in Chubby territory. If you have kids, you may need more than 120k. I just picked a number that works for us. Just wanted to point out there is a difference in COL where most of us live and the high rollers in this sub. So don't get used to the idea you NEED $10-20mil to enjoy life and RE cause some may not get there, ever. +Orginally I was quoted a salary of 97k. I accepted. Later, in an email, I was told that was a mistake and that my actual salary would be around 75k. They said "I hope this doesnt impact your decision to work for us". + +I told them it did impact my decision. I told them this was my dream job but that I have offers for up 120k so I am definitely not accepting 75k. Finally after much negotiation, we settled on a salary of $94k and $10k per year student loan repayment (for up to 60k for 6 years). + +Now, months later, I am filling out the loan repayment paper work and the HR lady emails me again saying they made a mistake and that after reivenstigation of policies the student loan repayment is only going to be a TOTAL of 10k over 3 years. And the full 60k will not be reached until 8 years. + +How should I respond to the email if this is not okay with me? Are all these changes red flags? Should I pick a different place to work? +Forget the Shorts %, look at those numbers!! + +In the post below, it says **1,43MM Etoro customers hold GME Stock, 11% of Customers:** + +*I myself, have 1500, a lot of people have thousands or hundreds of them, more now with Bid price. But let's take lower average of 5shares/pers =* **7MM shares on Etoro**.*(lower average)* + +Now, we all know that GME was on top list of **RH users**, but lets take the same % (lower case scenario) of RH users and same amount of shares: + +As they Arte the same users number on RH than Etoro (13MM) = **extra 7MM shares on RH** (lower average) + +Now what about Fidelity users: + +32MM users so 11%= 3,52MM x 5shares = **17,6 MM shares on Fidelity** (lower average) + +DEGiro has 600K users: + +600K x 11% x 5 = **330K shares Degiro** + +What about Trade 212 : 13MM users= **7MM shares on T212** + +&#x200B; + +ANd I am not counting the whales and those by brokers in direct + +so we have here on those most popular APP = 7 + 7 + 17,6 + 0,33 + 7 = **38,93MM retailers Shares** + +&#x200B; + +Yes you read that right !!! 39MM shares detained by retailers without counting the others app or direct brokerage or even the whales, and I took a lower average!! + +We know that they the **Float share is 48,89MM** + +OK now you see what I see right? Hold your belt !!! + +Last data shows 110% of Institutional Share = 110%/48,89 = **53,779MM institut** (lower as I think is higher) + +38,93MM + 53,78 MM = 92,7MM Shares detained within Institutions and Retailers while only 48MM are available + +==============>>>>>>>>>>>> **GME is detained at 193% TOTAL !!!!!** + +&#x200B; + +Shorts = 73% so 73% of 92,7MM = 67,6 MM Stocks are shorted + +67,6MM but 48,89MM is the real Float = **138% real short Number !!!!** + +&#x200B; + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-reddit-investing-213609595.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gamestop-amc-reddit-investing-213609595.html) + +In this article it said 4,5% of Americans detained at today GME Stock , let's take just 2% with only 5 GME share= 2% x 5 x 329MM = 32,9MM detained by Americans and let's say just 20% extra for rest of the world. + +**32,9 + 20% = 39,5MM shares by retailers remember up when I said 38,9 MM ??? Quite close right??** + +&#x200B; + +***TNDLR*** + +***Retailers hold 39MM Shares = 80%*** + +***Institutions hold 113 %*** + +***Total= 193 % shares are on the market*** + +***SO the real Shorts number is 138%*** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Alright , I am going to serve myself a Gin Tonic ! do you even realize what s that means? it is even worst for HF that we even dreamt about!!!!!! they will have to buy any fucking shorts available twice!!!! So Guys, no matter the price you will put, they will buy it, **they HAVE TO** !!! even at 100K/share!!!! Be £Greedy :: + +If you see mistakes please correct me.... + +&#x200B; + +Alright even if living abroad not financial adviser just sharing my DD so please share for those paper hands scared and let's enjoy the road.... ;) + +Cheers! + +&#x200B; + +From Luxembourg with Love ! + +&#x200B; + +ADDED AFTER COMMENTS: + +1. yes I forgot the world and Revolut and other APP +2. Read that article + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-gamestop-gme-135301233.html?guccounter=1](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-gamestop-gme-135301233.html?guccounter=1) + +Options @ 800 are skyrocketing just today more than 3M shares. for the newbies, means a HH take an insurance buy paying a premium that if a Stock goes up 800 (in this case) they will "only pay" 800$, the other company pay the extra. Options are with termination dates. You can check here and click on strike to have the higher amount. + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME) + +&#x200B; + +Meaning they are expecting the stock going way up that 800 so they are taking contract to protect their shorts. (so another premium to add on their shorts premium) + +&#x200B; + +Again they expect to go way up 800..... just think about that..... + +[https://i.imgur.com/apgRobV.jpg](https://i.imgur.com/apgRobV.jpg) + +&#x200B; +The logic of privatising holds up in my opinion but not in the USA when it come to healthcare. Essentially if you make 100 k a year you can get taxed 40% of that and have a lot of public services leaving you with 60 k or it can be privatised and you get taxed 20% and you have 80k of dispensable savings and because of competition between companies you will only pay 10k for those healthcare companies and thus leaving you with more money overall at 70k. For healthcare it seems though nationalising it would be cheaper as I have seen some drug prices that cost maybe a dollar to make be charged for 700 dollars. Why isn't there competition and a race to the bottom when it comes to prices for these? +I first posted this in the confession sub reddit and someone messaged me to post here because it might be better suited. I'm in a real shit situation when it comes to supporting my daughter. I lost my job after her father left us, I do get unemployment but that barely covers the bills. Her father still isn't paying child support and I don't know when that will start. I only had a few dollars to either get her the medicine she needed or groceries for us to eat until my food stamps reload next month. i stole the medicine and got us groceries and i still dont know how Im going to make it through the rest of the month. i felt like I was going to like the whole time. I can't even take her to the doctor because I owe too much and they won't see her until I pay off the full balance I owe the office. I'm so afraid someone saw me and next time I go I will be caught or arrested and have my daughter taken away from me. But she needed the medicne. she's been sick with a cough for days and her fever spiked and I didn't know what else to do. My daughter is finally asleep after fighting it for hours because the medicine just took effect and all I can do is hold her and cry and try not to wake her up. I feel so horrible. I've never stolen anything. before in my life and I'm just so scared of how bad I fucked up. I just want things to get better for both of us and I know doing what I did isn't the way to do it. I feel so guilty and horrible about it all +I just want us to get ahead and be in a better place in life. I'm looking into food banks and I called and left my case worker at social services a voice mail about the status of my ex paying child support. it has to get better. Doing things the way I did today isn't the answer and I just feel so fucking awful about it +Here is the link to Roaring Kitty (DFV channel). He has been posting about gme for awhile now. + +https://youtu.be/1zi7XVudxME + +He describes himself as a value investor. +Considerations for myself personally + +\- Low tax (salary, dividends, capital gains). I currently run a small business in Asia (Hong Kong). Don't mind having to tax plan carefully, just want to the option to limit paying tax. + +\- Warm climate (Med?). Warm, not too much rain, good sunshine hours per year. + +\- Ability to buy property in the countryside to start a homestead. + +\- Ability to meet people, both local and expat alike + +\- Low cost of living +Obligatory data: 45m married with four kids in LCOL Midwest. NW of 11m. Up from 6m 2.5 years ago when I exited my tech service company. No YOLO bets involved (Not that those are bad). + +There is always some level of curiosity on the journey each of us is on to (or already at) FATFire. So I thought I would share my story so far, hopefully to reiterate that the American Dream is alive and well for those willing to pursue it. I’ll do my best to share lessons learned at the end. I would love for the result of this to be for others to share their journey, and inspire those on a FATFire journey right now. + +Be warned…this is a long ass post. I enjoy reading long detailed posts…so those of you who also enjoy that…this is for you! + +TLDR: Started with nothing, worked hard, caught some lucky breaks, FATFI…still working on the RE part. + +***Childhood / Young Adult*** + +I grew up in a family of six, where I was the middle of three boys..with a younger sister coming along later. We relocated to the Midwest when I was 10…and some of my first memories after moving were jobs. I immediately wanted some spending money for baseball cards and ultimately a Nintendo. My family was not the kind that had money laying around, so anything I wanted I had to earn. By time I was 12 I had two paper routes, mowed lawns, and sold Current (stationary) door to door in the neighborhood. Working was something that came naturally. I worked a variety of jobs through high school and college…never working less than 20 hours a week and full time in the summers. + +I was an average student in high school and college. I loved my high school history classes, so I progressed to a History major in college, eventually choosing the route of History Teacher over going into Law School. In school I was always socially middle class. Combine that with my middle child syndrome of just wanting to be liked, and it was an interesting journey through school. I picked up a love of computers through high school (first computer was a C64) and college…at one point teaching computer classes to little kids and senior citizens. That became critical later. I graduated and off I went to my first job teaching. + +***Professional Wandering*** + +I was convinced I wanted to be a high school teacher…and proceeded to be just that. IT SUCKED. I was not prepared for the challenges that classroom control (behavior) would present. Lacking a high level of self-confidence at that point, and lack of mastery that a seasoned educator would have…I got ran over. Stuck with it for three years…and those were three very long years. Towards the end of year three, I saw an opportunity to transition into a Helpdesk IT job at a local company and jumped at it. + +My IT career spanned two years, as an in-house IT person for two local healthcare companies. I learned a TON about IT support, and really enjoyed making people’s day by fixing their issues. During those two years, I had my first two entrepreneurial experiences that would fuel my long term desire to make that my career calling. + +***Everquest*** + +So in college I got sucked into computer gaming, and that continued during my time teaching. Everquest was the first MMORPG that I really fell in love with, and I played that game WAY too much. Ultimately was in a big guild where everyone shared accounts, and had access to a lot of dormant accounts. I began to notice that there was a real economy in the game, and people bought a lot of virtual things with real money. My mind was always working to figure out ways to make money…and this one hit a sweet spot. + +My first time dipping my toes into selling things was when there was a particular NPC in the game (Lodizal) that took a group to kill, and no one could figure out how often it spawned. But the item it dropped 100% of the time was worth about $500 in the real world. Since I had access to dormant high powered accounts, I decided if I could figure out the spawn time, I could pop $500 each time. So I setup three computers side by side, and camped a character at the spawn point and started logging every spawn in an excel spreadsheet. Eventually, I figured out the timing and would literally be at my computer every potential spawn time. After a month or two of this (and making 3-5k), I got tired of getting up in the middle of the night, or running home from work to be there for a spawn. So I setup a log parser and had a super loud alarm go off every time the NPC spawned and said its specific text in the chat box. Bingo. + +As I learned more about the market, I realized that people quitting the game would sell their characters for about 30-40% of what I could sell everything individually for. While online auctions for virtual items in Everquest were banned on Ebay, they were alive and well on a site called Playerauctions. So as my first REAL business, I would buy people’s characters (typical purchase was between $500-1500), strip all the items off, sell them for in-game currency, then sell the currency for real money. Eventually even had a website ([www.lootpal.com](https://www.lootpal.com)). Over 18 months, sold 360k of virtual things, for a profit of 160k. Sadly…all good things come to an end, and the Chinese farming companies moved in and devalued the currency so much that it no longer made sense to do what I was doing. Sold off the last of my inventory and closed out that little entrepreneurial journey. + +***IT Support Company (Try 1)*** + +While in my second IT job (and at the tail end of my Everquest business), I really wanted to start my own IT Support business. I just had no real good idea on how to do it. So, I got a separate phone number, and put an ad in the newspaper! $25/hour IT support. I got one customer. Did his IT support for about a year…but never got more than that. Eventually, cancelled the ad and the phone number. #fail + +***Sales*** + +After doing IT support for two years, and having the successful Everquest business, I decided to try my hand at sales. So I got a job as a pharmaceutical sales rep. Little did I know that job was much more marketing and much less sales. About six months in I realized that hard work did not equal results in that industry and started looking for what was next. Here was one of the first BIG luck moments in my life. In that industry, you give physicians big “speaking grants” to come tell other doctors to write more of your medication. Its all one big circle jerk, but everyone got money out of it..and it wasn’t my money so whatever. I met this physician on Thursday who was doing a Dinner, then we were traveling to do a breakfast presentation and a lunch presentation the next day. We talked about technology in healthcare (which I had prior experience in), and had a great time. At the end of the last presentation, we sat down at a coffee shop…and before we know it he asked if I was interested in starting an IT Support company with him! BOOM! Within 60 days, I had quit my job and I was off on a wild entrepreneurial ride. + +***IT Support Company (2nd Try) – 28yo*** + +This worked a lot better than the first time. We had a built in customer (my business partner’s physician practice). We also had great timing / luck, as we started the business in 2003…the dawn of the Electronic Medical Record. Physician practices, which I had strong knowledge of, were transforming from companies that used technology sparingly to needing technology every. The government was ramping up requirements, and physician practices were a perfect customer…they had the money and they pretty much had to implement the technology. The IT Support company grew from just me, to me and two full time employees. The only problem was that I was always going to be a minority partner to the physician. The larger more stable the company, the better chance I had of being voted off the island in the future. I knew that long term this wasn’t going to work. + +Fortunately, I met a very entrepreneurial guy who ran his own solo IT company..and he also specialized in healthcare. Over the next 90 days, we decided we would make good business partners. I bought out my physician partner, and we started a new business with the combination of our two. Up until now…my total yearly income had never eclipsed 60k/year. + +***IT Support Company (3rd Try) – 31yo*** + +If at first you don’t succeed, try…try again. Third time was the charm. My business partner and I started this business with about 450k in revenue. Year one we grew to 1.5m, then 3m the next year, and 4.5m the next. The keys to growth were a combination of a phenomenal engineering / tech team, excellent tailwinds from a growing industry, and a strong sales team (my specialty). There is a glass ceiling in the IT support industry at about 3-5m in revenue…mostly because these companies are started by engineers who aren’t strong at sales. So they cap out due to a lack of being willing / knowing how to build a sales team. We blew through the glass ceiling because we committed to building a sales team…and got lucky with some really talented sales people early on. + +We also learned some important lessons about cash flow early on. We were so focused on top line revenue growth…and lacked the business sophistication to know better…that we neglected our bottom line. We convinced ourselves that investing in growth was why we weren’t making any Net Income…but it brought us close to death from indigestion. The year we booked 3m in revenue, we booked…$3,000 in net income. Whoops. Because of how we handled our invoicing and procurement…we ran dangerously close to running out of money, despite being a rapidly growing company. If it wasn’t for my business partner’s grandma (who lent us $50,000), and a community bank who eventually gave us a 300k LOC, we may have missed a payroll. Lesson learned. + +A key move for us during this time was getting involved in a peer group for IT companies. This was a HUGE factor that gave us access to companies that had the same challenges…and were where we wanted to be (larger). We soaked up every bit of information we could…and implemented countless things learned. Things really started to gain steam. Now we were one of the larger companies in the area…and the flywheel was really starting to turn (Jim Collins reference). + +We grew constantly, year over year, for the first 9 years in business. At one point we had a streak of 8 years in a row on the Inc5000 list of the fastest growing companies. That was pretty cool. There were always challenges, but we had a great team that was constantly up to the challenge. In 2013, someone recommended a book to me that included the concept of “start with the end in mind.” It made me think of what the “end” looked like for me. I knew 100% of my eggs were in one basket, and I had seen many a business owner go from dust to dust. What did my end look like? I decided that I needed to determine that, and came up with the three things that would signal the “end” for this entrepreneurial adventure. (1) The business had to have a leadership team in place so that it would be successful without me, (2) I wanted to sell my 50% internally either to my business partner, the leadership team, or ESOP, and finally (3) it had to be worth my number…mid seven figures. + +In 2018, I realized that I had hit all three of my factors that had signaled the end. But much like many of us on the FATFire journey…how much is enough? Can you really leave a company when things are going smoothly, and you are growing? Then I read this blog post. ([https://www.becomingminimalist.com/jump/](https://www.becomingminimalist.com/jump/)). I knew I had to jump. My wife was critical at this point in giving me the confident reassurance around that move. + +In July 2018 I sold my 50% to my business partner for 6m. + +Seeing the dollars hit the bank account was almost a little anticlimactic. Five minutes of euphoria, followed by “Well, what next?” LOL. One of the key things it DID do for me, was improve my overall stress. When 95% of your net worth is tied up in a business that could be broadsided by who knows what…that’s stressful! Removing that stress was incredible. Leading up to the sale, I had been researching investments…as I felt a strong desire to invest in SOMETHING so that I wasn’t negative cash flow until I figured out what was next. On one of the due diligence calls on a real estate deal…I met a guy who had sold a number of businesses, and he told me “The most important thing I can tell you, is to not make ANY big decisions for six months.” He went on to talk about how I would THINK I knew what I wanted to do…but give it six months and it is almost guaranteed to be different. Great advice…that I ignored at the time. + +***Consulting*** + +During the run at the IT Company #3, one of the key things we had done around 2015 was to implement a system called Traction (Book by Gino Wickman). We hired a professional who helped us implement it, and it had a profound impact on our continued growth and maturation as a company. As my wife and I considered what we were going to do next (she had left her job in public schools as a psychologist), we thought we may enjoy helping other leadership teams / companies implement Traction. So we did. We quickly clients…and still work with most of those today. That has been an incredibly rewarding pursuit, seeing each of these companies accomplish things they wanted to through the implementation of Traction. Highly recommend to any business with 10-250 employees. + +***Finding The Next Entrepreneurial Journey*** + +The consulting scratched our itch for something to do with our time…but not what to do with our money. I’ve always been horrible at passive investing. I like to invest where I feel like I can use my passion and skills to impact the investment. At first, we thought we would just purchase some commercial real estate and collect the checks. But the more we looked, the less we liked that. It was hard to find a return better than 10%, and I didn’t have any particular skills in that area. So by early 2019 we abandoned that idea. + +We took some time to analyze the combination of (1) what were we good at, (2) what were we passionate about, and (3) what could we make money doing. We emerged from that with the clarity that buying companies and working with their leadership teams to grow companies would be a great fit for our next entrepreneurial adventure. It also would contribute to being diversified, through owning multiple companies. So off we went. + +***Baby Private Equity*** + +So the best term for what we are doing is Private Equity…but we aren’t taking on other people’s money…and we’re smaller than typical Private Equity. But if I don’t call it that, its hard to explain quickly what we do. + +Since I had never bought a business (Only sold), I had a lot to learn. I started reading, and consumed a massive amount of information on acquiring a business. My background in running a number of businesses also gave me a good playbook for what to look for through a due diligence process, and there is a lot of information available on the interwebs. Ready to rock and roll, it was time to find business #1. + +***Business #1*** + +I started combing through online business listings looking for a company that would be a good fit. We knew what type of business we didn’t want (daycares, gyms, hospitality, automotive)…so that helped a bit. After reviewing hundreds of listings, I realized that in the size of businesses I was looking at (2-6m purchase price), replacing the active owner was the really hard part. So I switched gears and started looking for absentee owned businesses…and BINGO. Hit on a Flooring company based in the SW. Price was a bit high, but the company was well-run, good GM in place, and had consistently grown revenue year over year for their entire 12 year existence. The factors that I took into account to buy this business: + +* Critical Mass – Enough revenue, staff, customers that it wasn’t fragile or owner-centric +* Growth – Growing year over year top and bottom line revenue +* Market – Located in a city where we can 3-5x the company +* Team – Solid leadership team in place +* Transition – Almost no transition risk because the previous owner was absentee and completely disengaged from the business +* Industry – No real disruption on the horizon for that industr + +We closed on the purchase April 1, 2019 for a purchase price of 4.5m. For those of you who love details, revenue was 8.5m with EBTIDA of 950k in the previous year, so paid just over a 4.5x multiple. I put 1.5m down, did an owner carryback note for 20% of the purchase price, and financed the remaining 50% with a community bank I had a solid relationship with (and now is my primary financing partner). The day of the sale I injected an additional 150k into the business for cash flow purposes. + +Fast forward two years later, and this business is rocking and rolling. GM has really stepped up as a leader…and is focused on scaling the business the right way. Total debt paid down to approximately 2.3m from the initial 3m, and they are cash flowing significantly. Should finish this year around 11.5m in revenue with 1.2m in EBITDA. We have realized an approximate 35%+ ROI on our cash invested from post-tax cash flow and principal paydown, not including an increased valuation. The other major benefit of the transaction is the amount of the purchase price allocated to assets gives us the ability to take accelerated depreciation to drop our taxable income. Overall this is an ideal investment for us…over 35% YoY investment, with business value increase stacked on top. Looking forward to a long hold on this one + +***Business #2*** + +One year after adding business #1, it was time to start looking for a second investment. An early post-sale investment I had made in a REIT was redeemable (1.5m), and with the returns from business #1, I wanted to continue to buy businesses. Begun the search…and connected with a guy who was connected in a tier 2 market. He threw a bunch of things at me…but the first one to stick was a house painting franchise. It was operating smoothly, but the owner / operator was looking to move and needed to sell. I had a GM candidate who I knew personally that I believed would be an excellent GM…and this was a small / starter deal that would give him a chance to shine. So we pulled the trigger…likely without enough due diligence + +Closed the deal at the end of July, 2020. 350k purchase price, with 50k being an earn out tied to cooperation and the two employees staying. Business had done around 800k previous year with 100k NI. First week, existing sales guy quits. New GM starts after two weeks, and brings on another sales guy. So now three people…sales guy, ops, and GM. Team is in place. Just execute the franchise business plan right? + +Well…this one has been a struggle. We were staffed for the 8 great months out of the year…but Nov-Mar was a DUMPSTER FIRE. Tried doing interior work…got outbid. The work we did do wasn’t profitable. I injected 150k into the business because (1) we were overstaffed and (2) we were getting our asses handed to us in a variety of ways. Our Holding Company team (more on that later) has worked hard to make this one work…but feels like the franchisor fights us every move we make. + +I still think this one has the potential to get to 3m in revenue and 300k in NI…but they are a long ways off right now. Good news…its our smallest bet. + +***Business #3*** + +THIS is where it starts getting exciting. We now had around 1.5-2m in cash, and it was time to do another good sized investment. I had been searching myself for the past 3-5 months with limited success. However I had connected with a buy-side broker who I liked, and seemed like they may be a good fit to find us a lower multiple transaction than what I had paid the first time (4.5x EBITDA). So…we engaged to have them look for a business for us. + +Things got off to a quick start with the new buy-side broker. They threw 4-5 deals at us to look at, and we had a couple calls with owners…but within two weeks they had a large flooring company (we know a lot about those now, and loved the idea of another one) in north central US. The company was distressed, as they had gotten beat up by covid-related slowdown quite a bit. The owner was ready to get out after 22 years. They were doing around 14-15m in revenue with 800k ebitda pre-covid. They had a valuation of 3.6m….but as I mentioned they were not having a good 2020. Their plan was to try to break even. + +As we evaluated the deal, we were able to identify some core things they were doing functionally that we could quickly rectify post-purchase. We met with the two key leadership team members, and felt great about their ability to lead the company in the future. Looked at their stores and saw stores that just looked old / stale, and needed to be updated. We knew we would need to put time…and quite possibly money into this deal. So we wrote an offer. + +Slammed an offer in at 2m (basically 3.5x their 3 year average EBITDA including YTD 2020). I was sure they would tell us to F off…but they didn’t! Counter at 2.25 and we signed it as fast as we could. Due diligence was a little messy as we uncovered some more issues…but we realized that properly ran this company could be a 15m company at 1.1m EBITDA with the infrastructure (10+ locations) and upside to be a 30-50m company long term. Funny note…tried to renegotiate price down once I realized how much I would need to put into renovating the stores…and the owner almost walked away. Whoops. Finalized the deal and off we went. + +This deal has turned into a rocket ship (To The Moon #WSB). The leadership team took OFF once they understood they were empowered to make decisions. We implemented Traction (Book by Gino Wickman) that gave us a clear vision, responsibilities, and values for the company. Off they went. We set a budget of 17m in revenue, and they are currently on pace for closer to 20m in revenue with 1.5m NI. + +***Holding Company*** + +Through deals #1-3, my wife and I were the only ones at the holding company level. Our intention was to build out our holding company with a team that would work with our acquired companies to help them grow and be successful. Acquiring #3 allowed us to begin that process. We hired a rockstar marketing person who has amplified marketing across our three companies. Our second hire was a very fortunate one…a longtime acquaintance in my previous industry shook free from his company and was considering retiring. Fortunately he saw the fun / challenge in what we were doing (acquiring and building great companies), and he is the perfect partner for me to work with. He is a phenomenal coach, loves setting big goals and then working with teams to build structure to accomplish that. We have a CFO starting in a week that will work with the financial leaders in each of our companies…and help with overall financial management of the holding company. Together we can also be more thorough in our future acquisitions, instead of being a one-man-band. + +We set some big goals for the next 5-10 years, culminating with the goal of having 300m in revenue and 30m in net income. We will acquire one company a year to stay on pace to do that. Our biggest question right now is whether we want to continue to acquire flooring companies to create something really unique and strong in that industry. We already have some massive competitive advantages at our size, if we continue to add flooring we could really gain steam. On the downside of that…we are concentrated in one industry (scary). No decision on this yet. + +***Personal FATFIRE Journey – Where do we go from here*** + +Part of the goal of building out our team at the holding company, is to continue on a journey closer to the Retire part of FATFIRE. I’m working around 30 hours a week right now (by choice). As we build out the team, I can move out of those tactical areas and continue to focus more on vision / strategy, culture, and acquisitions…while decreasing my hours. + +We are dividing up the next 10 years of our life into two 5-year chunks. First 5 year chunk is with the kids still in the house. Youngest is 13, so 5 years until they are out of high school. During that time, we only travel a week or so at a time, and have significant parental responsibilities. So this is the time to continue doing what I love…building companies. We are getting a good team in place, and hopefully can continue to find good fit companies to buy. + +Second 5 year chunk is after the kids are out. The goal is to be non-essential to the holding company and subsidiaries…with all day to day at the holding companies being handled by a strong team. We want to travel more, and enjoy a kid-free (or atleast out of high school) situation a bit more. We have a second home in Phoenix, and likely will spend 2/3 our time there, and 1/3 our time in our current city. Coming back for family and friends. + +***Real FATFIRE*** + +Yeah…that probably happens 10 years from now. Its not really about the money to do it at that point (it isn’t now either)…its more about maximizing the RE part of FATFIRE that we hadn’t paid as much attention to previously. I’ll be 55 and my wife is similar age…so we want to go explore and continue to enjoy retirement while we still can. I don’t envision giving up the business…but minimizing my engagement to 2-5 hours a week that I can do from anywhere. I don’t ever see being full disengaged from growing things. + +***Keys to my FATFIRE journey:*** + +1. Always learning – It’s a strength of mine… and its returned dividends. This skill has been key to changing careers with minimal disruption (teacher -> IT person -> ecommerce -> sales -> start IT company -> private equity). +2. Take CALCULATED risks – Opportunity is all around us. Some good, some bad. I always do my best to calculate the risk, understand what happens if it all goes south…and compare the upside. I constantly look for high return, low risk deals. +3. Say NO to a lot of opportunities – This goes hand in hand with #2. Warren Buffet called Charlie Munger the “Abominable NO man.” Say no to everything that doesn’t check all the boxes. There are TONS of deals out there…be picky. +4. Don’t hire friends or family – It never works out. Ever. +5. Mentors – Constantly find people who are where you are going…their knowledge makes the road much more smooth +6. Believe in people – If you constantly share what you expect, and that you believe people can perform….they so many times will prove you right. Most professionals want to do great work…show them what it looks like and tell them they can do it. + +Top 5 Book Recommendations + +1. Traction by Gino Wickman – This is the operating system we run all of our businesses on. Gives us a clear vision, and the system to make it happen. Magical. +2. Great by Choice by Jim Collins – This book has concepts and principles that I believe wholeheartedly in. +3. Four Obsessions of an Extraordinary Executive by Patrick Lencioni – Great example of how you should spend your time +4. E-Myth by Michael Gerber – Taught me how to extricate myself from day to day operations of my company +5. Built to Sell by John Warrillow – Create a business that has value not intrinsically linked to you +6. Bonus – The Subtle Art of not giving a F\*ck by Mark Manson – Taught me to let go of the things I was not energized by…and gave me clarity as to what I love to do + +Alright, that’s it folks. If you’re still reading this, congratulations. You made it. + +I’m happy to answer questions. I look forward to updating this once a year as we progress on our FATFIRE journey. + +\-Nick +>**The dollar volume of homes purchased by foreigners from April 2018 through March 2019 dropped 36% from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors.** + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html) +**So I sold the last of my 22ish BTC yesterday.** + +I first got in around September of 2013 when the price was $130. I later set up a weekly buy on Coinbase buying the majority of my coins between $200 to $400. My original goal back then was to accumulate 21 BTC and be in the million club. I turned it off in 2015 once I was well over 21 coins. Of course looking back I wish I had never turned it off. + +**So why did I sell?** The value is now enough that I can pay my capital gains and still have enough to pay off my house leaving me completely debt free. I found myself constantly stressing over the fact I was storing close to 200K and I also fully expect a pull back at some point soon. Once my house is paid off I will most likely start buying back in again using money that would have been going towards a house payment. + +**Things I learned** +**Test your recovery process.** If you have a hardware wallet (and you should) send a small amount of crypto to it then wipe it and reload it using your seed. This made me much more confident using the wallet once I had done this and knew that recovery was pretty simple. Also use a passphrase, but make sure it is one you will never forget. + +**Store your seed securely.** I used a metal stamp to punch my seed into a ¼ inch steel plate. After that I dipped it in plastisol so it cannot be read and stored it in my safe with a description written on the outside. I also had another copy of the seed stored behind a picture at a trusted family member’s house just in case. + +**Sending a BTC transaction for tens of thousands of dollars is extremely stressful.** I first moved my coins from Coinbase to a hardware wallet before the BCH fork (yes, I was stupid and stored them on an exchange, although I did use their cold storage feature so there was a waiting period before they could be moved if my account was compromised). It was a long 15 minutes before the transaction showed up on the blockchain (I think Coinbase batches transactions up before sending) so I was freaking out that I had done something wrong and all my coins were gone. I wanted to save on transaction fees, but I should have moved them in smaller increments. + +**Weekly buys and dollar cost averaging is the way to buy.** I never had to think about the weekly buy so it was worth the small amount I paid for fees. Over time I was able to build a substantial sum. + +**It takes a long time to get out due to limits.** I was limited to 10K withdrawal per day so it is taking a while to transition to fiat. I applied for an increase but it was denied for some reason. I am pretty happy with Coinbase, but they are obviously dealing with growing pains. After withdrawing around 50K they quit letting me withdraw and said I needed to do some more verification. I tried uploading my license but the verification kept failing with a blank error message. I submitted a support ticket and heard nothing for several days. I finally remembered that they had recently added phone support so found the number and called. I only had to wait about 10 minutes until I talked to someone and they were very helpful. It turns out I was supposed to be prompted to use a web cam to take a selfie after uploading my license. Once I found that out I did it on my laptop that has a camera and was verified within 5 minutes. I had no problems with withdrawals after that. + +**Capital gains suck.** I took all the risk of buying into crypto yet I am going to be on the hook for close to 30K to the government for my long term gains. There is no way I am fucking around with the IRS though, so I will happily pay them. I still have some other crypto and will most likely start buying back in again in a few months. In a few years when I retire I will most likely try to live off of 37.5K income per year from selling crypto so I do not have to pay those capital gains. After a few years of that I will dip into my traditional retirement accounts. I still need to find out if I need to pay an estimated tax payment this quarter to avoid a penalty for not having enough taken out of my paycheck to cover my taxes for the year. + +My hat is off to those that are still hodling. It has already gone up quite a bit since I sold. I might look back at selling and kick myself in the future, but right now the thought of being debt free is pretty liberating. +**It has been one fucking hell of a ride and I will be back on the coaster with the rest of you soon!** + +I’ll keep this brief: + +it’s all fun and games until someone gets caught with their pants down. + +this is a volatile market and anything can happen. I know most of you understand this but we seem to get new visitors daily here, so for those who don’t... + +please keep some cash aside for unforeseen circumstances. please. you will thank me later. + +source: I have been shoveling money into my bottomless pit of a portfolio for weeks with reckless abandon. my gf of 4 years just broke up with me this morning. she is moving out next week and I am going to covering expenses by myself until I find a housemate or a new place. + +in one day I’ve gone from financially secure to cutting it dangerously close. if I didn’t have cash set aside I’d be having to do a personal capital raising by selling my body. + +thank you for coming to my TEDx talk. +Sitting on the plane yesterday, I was reading over some of the work a friend of mine produced on naked short selling, and it occurred to me that this info belongs in a venue where the public can access it. So I broke my commitment to take a few days off, away from computers, to post this - and then I will really stay offline... + +By way of introduction, let me say that there are authorities, and then there are authorities. The gentleman in question is a true expert on the topic, partly because he’s been studying the issue for about 25 years – his comments to the SEC on Reg SHO have taken on near mythical status, as they so clearly warned of the abuse that would come should the SEC not implement the safeguards he’d advocated. His name is likely familiar to many who have closely followed this topic – Dr. Jim DeCosta. + +The challenge in presenting the true state of the union is to provide data, supported by research, in bite-sized morsels that people can digest. I feel that his work is among the most comprehensive I’ve seen on the subject, so I leaned on him to allow me to publish a small sampling of his material. His premise has always been that the solution to the entire NSS mess lies in educating the investing public, the regulators, the Judiciary, and anybody else with a vested interest in the clearance and settlement system. + +He’s written 2-1/2 unpublished books on naked short selling, which contain more data than any other work on the subject I’ve seen. In Chapter 42 he delineates some of what he calls “Not so bullet points”. He lists 40 of them, but I’m only going to publish the first dozen for now, as there is a lot of information to assimilate. + +So without further ado, the first of Dr. Jim’s bullet points: + +------------------------------------- + + + +“I want to end this Chapter 42 with 40 “Not so bullet points” in regards to DTCC behavior in general. Many of these were revealed in the above analysis of the DTCC’s “Self-interview” and others were covered in previous chapters. My goal here is to get all readers on the same wavelength and build a foundation from which we can tackle the concepts in the last 28 chapters of this book and then move onto Book #3. + +40 NOT SO BULLET POINTS IN RE: NAKED SHORT SELLING + +1) Legitimate and illegitimate electronic book entries at the DTCC: Every trade involving a failed delivery that is allowed to “clear”, or more accurately, is bailed out, by a DTCC Stock Borrow Program (SBP) pseudo-borrow (a) results in a “Counterfeit Electronic Book-Entry” (“CEBE”) – an electronic book-entry held at the DTCC without corresponding paper-certificated shares held in a DTCC vault, or anywhere else, to justify their existence. (a) “Pseudo-borrow” is defined as an illegitimate borrow made from a self-replenishing anonymous pool especially one whose contents are admittedly not monitored. + +Why are these pseudo-borrows illegitimate? Because the admittedly unmonitored contents (or “pseudo-shares” theoretically “borrowed” from the SBP lending pool to cure the failed delivery), are allowed to be replaced right back into the same pool of lendable shares by the new purchaser’s broker/dealer, as if they never left in the first place. (Chapter 4) Even if all of the “Shares” residing in the lending pool at a given time were legally there, i.e. a margin agreement was signed approving their being loaned or hypothecated, this policy would still be insane. + +The DTCC tells us that 20% of all failed deliveries at the DTCC are dealt with via the SBP’s creation of these CEBEs. This violates Section 17A of the ’34 Act, as Section 17 A only allowed the DTCC to convert 100 million “Acme” paper-certificated shares held in their vault [and under their legal custody] into 100 million Acme electronic book-entry “Shares” in their “book-entry” system. The reasoning for moving from paper to electronic book-entries was that electronic book-entries are much more efficient to process - especially important in the midst of the 1969 “paperwork crisis” that drove the move to automation. + +The CEBEs created by the SBP are above and beyond what Section 17 A permitted. NASD Rule 11830 later expanded the one-for-one ratio of paper-to-electronic shares, and effectively allowed there to be 100.5 million Acme shares (0.5% above the number of shares outstanding) held in electronic book-entry format, before buy-ins of the overage of delivery failures was mandated. Rule 11830 provided the critical “metric” in regards to the number of “Unaddressed delivery failures” (the size of the naked short position at the DTCC) above which action was mandated, to halt the incredibly obvious dilutional damage incurred by an issuer, and the investors therein. + +2) CEBEs. CEBEs cause artificial dilution because they represent readily sellable share facsimiles, without any rights attached - misrepresented (a) on an investor’s monthly brokerage statement as being genuine “Shares” (with an attached package of rights). They are readily sellable facsimiles by necessity, because there is no way a DTCC participating b/d could refuse to take a sell order, or refuse to provide voting privileges, for something that it has implied to its client as being genuine “Shares held long” on their behalf (as per the fiduciary duty of care owed as an agent/broker, to its client that paid it a commission). + +Recall from earlier chapters how the perceived value of each of the (dozen or so) component rights which make up a genuine “Share” are what gives a “Share” its value. The components of the rights package are the “Share.” As an example, the dividend “Right” attached to a corporation paying a generous annual dividend, would have a commensurately larger perceived value ascribed to that particular right. Paper certificates and electronic book entries are mere formats to account for “Share” ownership; they’re not the “Share” – and formats have no intrinsic value – it’s the package of rights that has the value. + +(a) (Misrepresentation: A false representation of a matter of fact that should have been disclosed, which deceives another so that he/she acts upon it to his/her injury) + +3) Unaddressed CEBEs kill corporations, via massive dilution, if they are not constantly and rigorously monitored for their quantity, age, and the legitimacy of the failed delivery that procreated them. In naked short selling (NSS), the mere method of placing the bet against a corporation increases the odds of winning the bet, because of the dilutional damage done with each negative bet placed that didn’t involve a legitimate “borrow”. Note that even legal short selling done as sloppily as it is done on Wall Street via “iffy locates” (as the SEC calls them), causes artificial dilution - but legal short selling has a built-in “Governor”: there are only a finite number of legitimate shares legally-loanable. NSS has no such “Governor”, and there’s no limit to the damage that can be inflicted upon an issuer. As mentioned before, “pricing efficiency” mandates that all short sales or “negative votes” against a corporation be counted - but only if they are preceded by a legitimate “borrow”. + +This lack of a “Governor” creates the self-fulfilling prophecy aspect of NSS; just keep selling nonexistent shares until the company goes down. It’s analogous to ballot box stuffing. The mindset of the abusive DTCC participants and their co-conspirators becomes, “don't worry nobody's watching and you'll never be bought in, because the DTCC can be 100% counted on to pretend to be “powerless” in collecting the IOUs owed directly to them as the loan intermediary in the SBP “pseudo-borrow” process. + +4) The only modality available to address archaic, excessive or illegitimate CEBEs is an open market "buy-in" - except for the extremely rare “negotiated settlement” with the victimized issuer. + +5) Buy-ins force the seller of the nonexistent shares (who has refused to deliver them in a timely manner), to open his wallet, grab the investor’s money that he acquired under false pretenses as the share price “tanked,” and spend this money on purchasing the shares that he has already sold, but refuses to repurchase and deliver even after inordinate amounts of time. (See Dr. Boni’s research) + +Recall the 2 parameters from earlier chapters that help address any intent to defraud issues – the length of time of this “refusal”, as well as whether or not the price has been declining during the “refusal” period. An abusive MM that refuses to cover even when the share price is tanking is, by definition, not acting in a bonafide market making capacity, and thus isn’t deserving of the pre-short-sale borrowing exemption accorded to “bonafide” MM’s only, and only while acting in that capacity. Recall that a true, bonafide MM deploys the proceeds from naked short sales at higher levels to post bids at lower levels, in order to flatten out the position and stabilize the markets. As we’ve seen time and time again, abusive market makers with these “stabilizing bids” are nowhere to be found as the share price of a victimized issuer drops - in fact, they’re still selling aggressively. If you know that you’re not going to be caught or prosecuted, why would an abusive DTCC participant decrease the size of the pile of booty taken from naïve investors by covering his naked short position? Why not increase the size of this plunder more yet? Decisions, decisions, increase or decrease the stack of stolen money sitting in front of one. + +Recall the “triple whammy” from earlier chapters that occurs if an abusive DTCC participant did choose to cover. First of all, if you’ve been the only seller for a couple years, the mere action of stopping the selling will cause the share price to gap upwards, as it has been actively forced downwards in the past. Secondly, this increase in share price from the cessation of active selling will increase the collateralization requirements for the naked short position still on the books. Thirdly, if the abuser not only stops selling but actually starts buying then the share price will have am even greater tendency to gap upwards, which will exacerbate the collateralization requirements, as well as the price needing to be paid for future covering. In other words, THEY CAN’T COVER, and the SEC knew this when they grandfathered in all preexisting delivery failures as part of Reg SHO. + +The mandated buy-in approach is extremely efficient because it results in the bill for the buy-in landing in the lap of the fraudster doing the naked short selling, no matter how many layers of “dummy, straw, or nominee” corporations he is acting through (usually in various offshore havens with various banking secrecy laws, that are inexplicably allowed to interface with the DTCC – Canada included). None of the intermediaries in these transactions are going to bail out those that actually placed the order. The clearing firms holding these NSS positions in their “DTCC participant” securities accounts have been well-collateralized, due to the theoretically ultra-high risk nature of the naked short selling of penny stocks -so there is money sitting there ready to be deployed. + +6) The very obvious buy-in solution is violently fought by the DTCC, as well as the SEC, as witnessed in the research results of Evans, Geczy, Musto and Reed (2003), showing that only one-eighth of 1% of Rule 11830 mandated buy-ins are ever effected. Why? In the case of the DTCC, it’s because their abusive market maker participants/owners, aware of how easy it is to steal a naïve investor’s money, are net naked short almost all of the development-stage corporations they make a market in. They know how tipped the playing field is and how these OTC markets are essentially rigged in favor of the DTCC participants owing a fiduciary duty of care to their clients - the investors whose money they are rerouting into their own wallets. They wouldn't be caught net long a development-stage micro cap corporation to save their lives. They may or may not know all of the intricacies of naked short selling, but they all know enough to work from a net short position. The reason why the SEC adamantly opposes buy-ins is a little more problematic, and the subject of a variety of theories held by various securities scholars. We’ll review them in future chapters. + +A truly bonafide MM will hover near net neutral positions, sometimes net long, sometimes net short. He doesn’t get painted into a corner with a massive naked short position that forces him into criminal behavior to avoid financial catastrophes. He’s happy with living off “the spread”. Unfortunately for most MMs, these spreads became razor-thin after decimalization was instituted 5 years ago. Unlike an abusive MM that’s sitting on an astronomic naked short position in need of constant collateralization, the bonafide MM is not afraid to let a market with an imbalance of buy orders over sell orders advance in price until it reaches its own equilibrium level. The bonafide MM would naturally rather NSS shares at higher levels than at lower levels. The truly bonafide MM doesn’t dictate share price – rather, he buffers the wild swings in share price, and injects much needed liquidity into the markets of thinly-traded securities, and provides “pricing efficiency”, as noted in Chapter 18. The abusive MM, however, does not have the “luxury” of allowing prices to advance in buy order-dominated markets, as the cost to collateralize large naked short positions in advancing share price environments makes it cost-prohibitive. Abusive MMs are often forced to put a blanket of naked short sales over markets where they “accidentally” ran up a huge naked short position, but where buy orders keep coming in. You’ll recognize this scenario when you see victimized issuers mysteriously trading their entire float of shares every 3 or 4 days with the market going absolutely nowhere. Does anybody really think that all of these issuer’s shareholders got up one morning and simultaneously decided to sell all of their shares? Unfortunately for U.S. citizens, this buy order-dominated scenario often occurs in promising development-stage corporations with a wonderful prognosis for success, that now have to be snuffed out, lest abusive DTCC participants take a huge financial hit. + +Many NSS proponents are of the mindset that all U.S. development-stage companies that advance in share price are by default “scams” in the midst of a “pump and dump” form of securities fraud. The irony of the SEC’s historical lack of success in stamping out “pump and dumps” is that they inadvertently welcomed an “irrefutable” form of fraud involving the blatant theft of money from naïve investors (NSS), in order to address a “suspected” form of fraud which gave rise to the “vigilante” type of naked short seller. + +7) At the DTCC, the deterrence value of untimely buy-ins (which provides the “natural” deterrent to NSS abuses) has been surgically removed by DTCC policies, making the risk/reward ratio of this form of securities fraud incredibly low. The consistent refusal of the DTCC to buy-in the IOUs owed directly to them as the “loan intermediary” in the SBP’s pseudo borrowing process, is one of the two main factors that creates an invitation for fraudsters to pile on naked short sales on already brutalized victim companies. This refusal to buy-in is one of the most important pillars supporting that which many securities scholars refer to as “DTCC sponsored NSS” – namely the 100% certainty the fraudsters have that the DTCC will refuse to call in their own IOUs (while acting as the “loan intermediary” of the SBP) because of their claim of being “powerless” to do so. + +An equally important pillar supporting NSS “DTCC style” involves the ability to count on the DTCC to claim to be equally “powerless” in monitoring and buying-in the failed deliveries of their participants/owners held in an “ex-clearing” format. The claim here is that these non-CNS delivery “arrangements” (I love that term “arrangements”!) associated with failed deliveries represent “contracts” between the DTCC’s participants/owners, and that the DTCC does not monitor “contract” law – only “securities” laws. This, despite the fact that they volunteer to process the cash part of these naked short sales (leading to failed deliveries), and still “clear” these trades and issue “securities orders” to allow these “non-CNS delivery arrangements”. This de facto serves to artificially delay settlement, as expressly forbidden by 15c6-1 of the ’34 act. + +8) NASD Rule 11830 defines the threshold for the number of CEBEs (above which mandated buy-ins are necessary) as 10,000 shares AND 0.5% of the number of shares legally issued. Any CEBEs exceeding this level indicates that abusive dematerialization (as reviewed in Chapter 3) is occurring. This level is where the alarm bells should create a deafening noise but unfortunately for investors the wire to that alarm bell was effectively short-circuited by several of the rules and regulations of the DTCC and NSCC. + +9) The conventional metric for determining the age of CEBEs (above which buy-ins should occur) would naturally correspond to the spirit of Addendum C to the rules and regulations of the NSCC, which created the SBP for deliveries that for legitimate reasons couldn’t quite be delivered by settlement day. The authors of Addendum C were well aware that it was critical to keep the lifespan of the CEBE extremely short. The assumption was that the DTCC would rigorously monitor the age, quantity, and legitimacy of these representations of shares, as they were clearly capable of causing massive damage via artificial dilution. + +From a statistical point of view, the question that begs to be asked is: Is it a coincidence that the DTCC management: 1) allows its participants/owners to naked short sell with abandon, 2) refuses to monitor the age, quantity and legitimacy of the resultant failed deliveries, 3) refuses to call in its own IOUs resulting from its participants’ abuse of the SBP (because of its self-imposed “powerlessness” to do so), 4) refuses to monitor its participants’ failed deliveries in the ex-clearing netherworld (because of their theoretical “contractual” nature), despite the DTCC being an SRO in charge of “regulating the conduct and business practices of its members” as well as 17 A’s mandate to “promptly and accurately “settle” all transactions, and 5) goes well out of its way to remove the one natural deterrent to naked short selling abuse - the open-market buy-in? A second question begging to be asked is: when does a long litany of coincidences fail to plausibly remain a coincidence? + +Remember, the DTCC is its owners. It's not some independent 3rd party, off to the side. There are 2 parties in the investment arena: the investors, and the DTCC-participating “Wall Street professionals” - with a vastly superior “KAV” factor (Knowledge of, Access to and Visibility of the clearance and settlement system). The DTCC portends to be playing an intermediary role between the buying and selling parties, while acting in the capacity of a “contra-party” to all trades, and the “loan intermediary” in the SBP pseudo-borrow process. But, as mentioned in earlier chapters, you can’t play a legally defensible “intermediary” role when you ARE one of the two parties being “intermediated”. + +10) The methodology of monitoring for the legitimacy of failed deliveries was probably assumed by Congress and the SEC to involve the DTCC’s monitoring of their participating market makers’ usage of the bona-fide market maker exemption, and detection of any suspicious trading patterns and failed delivery patterns. These patterns jump out at you when access to this data is attained, and yet no matter how often an abusive clearing firm fails delivery of shares of a given issuer, all further delivery failures of this issuer’s shares by the abusive clearing firm are still assumed to be “legitimate”, as if by default. Recall the Compudyne case cited earlier, involving nearly a thousand consecutive trades failing delivery, without a single alarm bell going off. Every regulator and SRO seems to think that the monitoring for bona fide market making activity is the job of a different regulator and SRO - which leaves us with a regulatory vacuum, and the resultant “Industry within an industry” we refer to as naked short selling. + +11) As the DTCC has been recently yelling from the mountaintops, the SEC did indeed authorize the SBP in 1981 to address legitimate failed deliveries – provided that the reason for the delay was of a legitimate nature (and there are indeed “legitimate” reasons for short-term delays in delivery). The assumption was that the DTCC would create checks and balances to monitor for abuses of this ultra-risky gamble (which allowed for the deliberate creation of a minute amount of “counterfeit” share “replicas” in an effort to enhance efficiencies in the clearing process). We have already identified over a dozen of these theoretical “quests for enhanced efficiencies” that have been abused by some DTCC participants to gain leverage over the investors they owe a fiduciary duty of care to, so it is questionable if that assumption was a reasonable one. Be that as it may, the other assumption was that the participants of the DTCC would act in good faith with this gigantic new responsibility (and incredibly large temptation to leverage their “KAV” factor and steal from investors). As it turns out there is way too much money “in play” on Wall Street to assume that those with an inherent advantage won’t leverage it. + +12) Dr. Leslie Boni, while working as a visiting economic scholar for the SEC, was given access to the DTCC records. This was heretofore unheard of, except for perhaps the New York Supreme Court’s granting of discovery into the DTCC trading records to the CEO of Eagletech, in their NSS case. + +Professor Boni found two distinct sub-types of delivery failures whose “median” ( half younger than and half older than) age was about 13 days. Half of delivery failures averaged about 6-7 days, assuming a bell-shaped curve distribution, and were of the type that the SBP was created to address. The older half of delivery failures, however, averaged approximately 106 days, again based upon a bell-shaped curve distribution. The overall average, or “mean” age of delivery failures, was 6 days plus 106 days divided by 2, equaling 56 days as opposed to T+3. These findings were obviously not consistent with the intentions of the SBP, as promulgated by Addendum C. Some DTCC participants had obviously chosen to not act in good faith, but rather to leverage their superior knowledge, access and visibility and abuse the SBP for their own monetary gain. They learned that nobody at the DTCC was rigorously monitoring for the age, quantity, or legitimacy of these failed deliveries, and that they could sell nonexistent shares all day long, and actually get access to the unknowing investors’ money. All they had to do was let the SBP allow these trades to “clear” via a pseudo-borrow, from what turns out to be a self-replenishing lending pool, whose contents are also admittedly not being monitored (see the @dtcc self-interview where the DTCC admits that they have placed their participants on the honor system in regards to what they place into the lending pool). Once this bogus trade cleared, then all the fraudsters had to do was to collateralize this debt on a daily marked-to-market basis. The precipitous fall in share price resulting from all of this artificial dilution involving “Share facsimiles” led to an unconscionable result - the investor’s money actually falls into the lap of the naked short selling fraudsters, despite the fact that they were still refusing to purchase the shares required to cover the short sale after inordinate amounts of time. + +As it turns out, short covering is not necessary to gain access to the defrauded investors’ money. One must only collateralize the ever-diminishing debt, as the share price does its 100% predictable plunge driven by all the artificial dilution being created. Unlike the DTCC and its participants, there are those investors and securities scholars who find this concept disturbing – and one hopes that the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee, the overseers of the SEC, will as well. + +Recall from earlier chapters that the risk of being bought-in was essentially zero, as the DTCC could be counted on to see to that via their policies and procedures. The closest thing to a real buy-in was just another trip to the self-replenishing lending SBP lending pool via the DTCC’s “Procedure X-1” Policy. “ + +#SITE REFERENCE + +https://cmkxunitedforum.proboards.com/thread/13156/02-analysis-nss-jim-decosta + +# LAST EXAMPLES + +A quip to the SEC from Dr. DeCosta. The man is savage: “7) In 3 (ii) (B) withholding the proceeds of the crime for 90 days is like handing a bank robber the proceeds of the heist after a 90 day waiting period. This is a crime being committed. The motive is greed. The shares that were sold for real money don't exist, they never did. There was no intent to ever cover this naked short position. The "intent to defraud" is typically present right from the "get go" as there is usually not an imbalance of buy orders over sell orders at the higher trading levels of these "bear raid" victims.” + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/decosta122203.htm + + +EDIT: a few users mentioned that the SBP was discontinued officially in 2014 from the SEC +https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2014/34-71455.pdf + +This makes the GME debacle even worse for all official institutions and it’s participants up and down the chain. They’ve banned the process and continue to blatantly break the law. They’ve gotten so comfortable doing crime in broad daylight it’s why we watch 10-20 point drops on the live charts any given day/week. + +#EDIT 2 +This video is from 12 years ago but it shows what we’ve been up against and proves the SEC won’t act even with the GameStop situation. It shows that we must take matters into our own hands by DRS and potentially even removing the physical stock certificates as the final nuke: + +https://vimeo.com/4520843 + +#EDIT 3: + +Dr. Jim DeCosta has been writing to the SEC for over a decade with all the whistle blowing evidence the SEC needs to act and nothing has happened. In the video link above about NSS(Naked Short Selling) 5000 cases were sent to the SEC and not 1 was acted on. Welcome to a Madmax reality meaning we’re on our own which is what they thought would happen. What they didn’t expect is APES STRONG TOGETHER! + +Here are a lot of Dr. DeCosta’s files: + +https://cmkxunitedforum.proboards.com/board/14/dr-jim-decosta-files + +#WHERE’S THE GAMESTOP REPORT GARY! +I am planning to study economics in university. But before that I want to read some economic books. Any good beginner books, I don’t want to start with Wealth of nations first +In an attempt to save for a house deposit, I've been eating like a student for 5+ years, buy nothing except for absolute essentials, spend the bare minimum on utilities, have no subscription or streaming services, and decline most social invitations that involve spending money. My only holiday every year has usually been a week or two of housesitting for my aunt who lives on the Kent coast (which I love and am very lucky to have the opportunity). Later this year I'm going to France for a wedding and staying on for a few days with friends, which I feel guilty about. + +During this time I've been earning between £40-50k a year and very grateful to be able to save at least £600 a month (£1000 a month more recently, since I got a pay rise and have been working remotely). I currently live in a house share and housing costs are high because I'm in the SE. (My family live here, my work industry is here, I can't help it, sorry). + +But to be honest I'm sad and lonely and no closer to buying a home, with costs and house prices rocketing. Do I just give up and live my life? Whenever I bring this issue up I'm just told (mainly by older relatives) that I need to cut out frivulous spending like clothes and takeaways and holidays and it really upsets me because I don't spend on these things, and it's not helping! +I happened upon this article about a driver talking about how much he makes driving for Uber and Lyft: https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-lyft-driver-how-much-money-2019-10#when-it-was-all-said-and-done-i-ended-the-week-making-25734-in-a-little-less-than-14-hours-on-the-job-8 + +In short, he says he made $257 over 13.75 hours of work, for almost $19 an hour. He later mentions expenses (like gas) but as an afterthought, not including it in the hourly wage. + +The federal mileage rate is $0.58 per mile. This represents the actual cost to you and your car per mile driven. The driver drove 291 miles for the work he mentioned, which translates into expenses of $169. + +This means his profit is only $88, for an hourly rate of $6.40. Yet reading the article, it all sounds super positive and awesome and gives the impression that it's a great side-gig. No, all you're doing is turning vehicle depreciation into cash. +From @_SidVerma on Twitter. And could you please also help me understand why a few people replied that it’s because the fed has painted itself into a corner where if we keep giving the patient medicine to mask the pain, it will die, and if we don’t, it will die? + +And why do people think such a rate hike automatically crash the market? + +Thank you. +So many arrogant fucks here love talking technical analysis when they can't even do basic fraction arithmetic much less understand Ito Calculus. Fucking clowns, all of them. + +Shut the fuck up and do your trades. If you really need a number you can't even derive to tell you whether you should buy a stock or not you deserve losing all and hanging yourself. + +Newsflash, the stock market never made sense nor will it. Best you can do is trade shit you know about and feel still hasn't been spotted by the bandwagon of smooth brains on subreddits like this one or r/stocks . Or alternatively manipulate the market like the rich investors you look up to do. Warren Buffet's dad was a politician, if you think that shit didn't help that fat fuck then not only are you retarded but also delusional. + +Now stfu about volatility and RSI. If you actually knew what the fuck was going to happen you'd be chilling in Hawaii with a fat titty chick not on Reddit posting "technical analysis". + + +Smell that? You might remember it from your mom’s house or off the girl you’ve been dreaming about. That’s the smell of someone who brings in generational wealth for all their bros and brolets by actually having the fucking balls to get shit done. + +While you loser cucks are sitting with your thumb up your ass pretending to understand how to buy and sell during shitcoin mania, the one TRUE Chad token has launched leaving you to sit and cry wondering why your bitch ass didn’t make it. + +When you’re done wallowing in self-pity like a fucking dipshit, smack yourself awake and pick up some CHAD token. Check out the fucking website and the Chadpaper and **tell me this isn’t going to go another 100x from here.** + +You won’t. + +Whenever you’re done shitting your pants thinking about how much fucking money you’re going to blow on coke and escorts every night, make sure you join the TG and see just how many stacklets are gathering together to create Chad buys after Chad buys after Chad buys. + +**Imagine the Chad army once its busy raiding wet napkin cuck tokens, and shilling non-stop to feed their starved no-coin villages.** + +**Listings are coming for the bulls and audits are coming for the nerds**, cause Chad’s will take your money no matter who the fuck you are. Just make sure you don’t sell your CHAD otherwise **you’ll get tagged with ESTROGEN airdrops** to let all your bros know what a fucking loser you are. + +So why the fuck are you still reading, nerd. Stop being a stupid virgin loser, get that sand out of your vagina, and hurry up to get some CHAD before you stay a complaining little bitch forever. + +And don’t even try to bring that FUD shit here. We. Will. End. You. + +[THE FUCKING WEBSITE](https://www.thechadtoken.com/) + +[BUY FUCKING NOW](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xea8eacce22bbb89709482c0100e75e7ab90f53f4) +Here are some of tax compliances that businesses in our country have to follow up on:- + +1. TDS + +Earlier the requirement to deduct TDS was for only people whose books were liable to be audited (Rs 5 crore Turnover) + +Now the provisions have been changed to make every business having more than Rs 1 crore Turnover to deduct TDS + +So what's the hassle? You need to make TDS payment on 7th of every month and a Quarterly TDS return at the end of each quarter (means you only 6 days to complete your month's accounting to ascertain TDS amount) + +2. PTRC + +States like Maharashtra require you to pay Profession Tax of Rs 200 per employee alongwith the Return each quarter + +3. ROC Filing Charges + +This is just plain outrageous. Government requires you to pay Fees for filing Return *on time* (Rs 100 per day late fee in case of delay with no upper cap limit) + +Not to mention, they require the ROC Returns to be signed by a CS + +So between Form ADT-1, AOC-4, MGT-7, DIR-3, etc and Filing Fees payable to CS you end up paying between Rs 10,000 to Rs 15,000 + +Ministry of Corporate Affairs could literally ask Income Tax Department to share the financials uploaded in Income Tax Returns for verification. But no, they would rather make us file these additional returns and ask for the same information again. + +4. Tax Audit incase you want to show your Net Profit lower than 6% + +For Individual businesses having Turnover upto Rs 2 crore, the Income Tax Act through Sec 44AD(4), Sec 44AD(5) and Sec 44AB(e) essentially mandates such business to show Net Profit of 6% if they want to avoid going through a Tax Audit + +Basically, even if you are maintaining proper accounts, government is essentially saying that they don't trust you when you show Net Profit below 6% normally. Somehow, they can't contemplate the concept of Losses and believe every taxpayer out there is a thief. + +By forcing such people to go for Tax Audit in case they don't want to pay Taxes on 6% Net Profit (which doesn't exist), the Tax Payer ends up paying Rs 15,000-20,000 to a CA + +5. GST + +Where to even begin? + +If you Purchase Goods with GST you can untilize the Amount Paid for the GST component to adjust your own GST Liability on Sales. Sounds good, right? + +Well here's the catch, if the Supplier (who sold goods to you) does not file his GST Returns/Forgets to show that specific Invoice in GST Return in your name upto the September of next year, you will essentially be disallowed from availing GST Credit on that Purchases (because Government essentially thinks you might be availing fake GST Credit on bogus Purchases) + +So you paid the GST on the Purchase to the Supplier in good faith, now he was the one who did not do the Tax Compliances. + +So instead of going after him, they are essentially punishing the Purchaser by not allowing him GST Credit. + +So the Department has shifted the burden of GST Recovery from themselves to the Purchaser of Goods. Now you have to follow up with the Supplier and essentially beg him to file his returns in time or refund you the GST Amount (Of course he is not going to refund you, and you can't really afford to take legal recourse) + + +These are just some of the major examples. I have not even touched upon ESIC, PF, Gratuity, Property Tax, Capital Gains, etc + +Most laymen business neither have the time nor the expertize to ensure such tax compliances. So they need to hire an accoutant to maintain updated books on a monthly basis and hire a CA for such work. + +After it's all said and done, a business ends up spending upto Rs 3 lakh between Accounting and various Return Filing Charges. + +(This is assuming you and your CA have done a perfect job, I don't want to scare you by bringing up Interest, Late Fees and Penalty Amounts) + +The compliances are only increasing with each passing year and many entrepreneurs are finding it more and more frustrating to focus on core operations of the business (speaking from personal experience) +I’m sure this time is toughest for those of us who don’t fit the account requirements of this sub who are feeling alone and stressed out. + +Someone PM’d me asking if I thought $GME would actually go back up to $400 (Duh of course it will) so I assumed he was a bot, but after checking his account I saw he was supporting $GME a week prior to the new karma requirements. Turns out he was just a stressed German bro who needed someone to talk to since he put all his savings in and has been holding since $289. I want you guys to know you ARE NOT ALONE and you’re in our 💛 & 🧠 too!! Just keep holding brethren, and BUY THE DIP! 🚀🚀💎🙌 + +Edit: I love all of you guys/gals, sorry I can’t get to every PM but I’m trying my best! + +Edit2: Stop giving me awards and use that $$ to buy the dip!🚀🚀🚀 +I don't know if it's just me, but it feels like the juice isn't worth the squeeze right now. + +In the back of my mind is a pressure to participate meaningfully in society, pay taxes, raise a family, reach the pinnacle of a career etc. But at the same time it feels so out of reach, and uncertain if the effort is worth it at all. Will there be a retirement at the end? Is financial independence a thing of the past? If 2 parents need to work non-stop, why bother having a family? These questions eat at me. + +The other half of me is resigned to working just enough to take care of basic needs, and forego the traditional goals. However, this feels like being a lazy failure. + +BTW I'm early thirties, and a lot of my friend group are in the same boat. +Anyone else feel the same? + The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest 1-month change since June 2008 when the index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since a 5.4-percent increase for the period ending August 2008. + + +&#x200B; + +Release: [Consumer Price Index Summary (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) +I keep reading articles/stories etc about employers "desperately needing staff" and "cant find any staff" but when you dig a little deeper you learn that the reason they can't find any is because they dont want to pay above the award rate or acknowledge the fact that in a competitive labour market(which we are in) you have to compete for staff by offering higher pay. + +It's almost like a type of derangement where they refuse to ackowledge the fact and would rather just suffer with lack of staff than just pay a little bit extra. Has anyone else noticed this or have similar stories? + +One of the relevant articles - [https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/please-take-a-job-queensland-businesses-at-breaking-point/news-story/9cb73e36c7f375e79bb90db16ab8d8fd](https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/please-take-a-job-queensland-businesses-at-breaking-point/news-story/9cb73e36c7f375e79bb90db16ab8d8fd) +Hey Everyone, + +I wanted to get input from more experienced investors if possible. For context: I opened a WS account on December 31st with a $6800 initial investment, and, for the record, zero investment experience. I joined r/CanadianInvestor, as well as many other Facebook groups to see what companies people are suggesting. I started educating myself by reading "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch, as well as many articles on Investopedia, and recently some books on technical analysis. + +How did I do so far?: I started off with $6800 and 3 weeks later I was up 12%. Then the whole GME fiasco happened and I unfortunately got caught up in it a little bit (I really tried hard not to but failed - sold BB stock at a loss of $400), sold off the majority of my portfolio in a panic (showing I definitely didn't know what I was doing), went from $7600 to $6300 practically overnight, and ever since brought it back to $7450. So overall I'm up 10% since starting a month and a half ago. + +My fear: I'm not sure if I'm doing this right. Two weeks ago, based on my "newly acquired technical analysis skills", I made a call on NEXE, NUMI and BUS (which, let's be fair, is plastered everywhere online, and I might just have timed it right...). All 3 combined are up 100% since. I mean sure, I'm extremely happy but how much of this is actually real? I mean I have been doing my DD on the companies I am investing in, but at some point I'm going to eat a slap in the face (kinda like when GME happened). As a new investor, I'm obviously basing many of my decisions on what I'm seeing online and then researching the company afterwards. But is this causing a bias? Is the fact that EVERYONE spewing out companies online making me THINK that this is worth investing in? We hear about all the pump and dump schemes and I experienced it first hand too (thankfully in a way because I became more resilient afterwards), but as new investors with access to SO MUCH INFORMATION and forums and such, how "real" are our decisions? + +I would appreciate any input. I think many new investors like myself are likely in a similar position and seeing and experiencing success right off the bat, to me, is VERY SCARY. A co-worker of mine started about 3 months ago and is up 40% since (using a combination of what he sees people suggesting online, Yahoo Ratings, Simply Wall Street and technical analysis). This "success" that we're experiencing cannot be sustainable, can it? Are we in a hive mind mentality (is this even the term?) where everyone is just following everyone else and it's causing a positive effect on these "popular stocks"? + +Thanking your in advance, + +Gold With The Wind + +Ninja Edit: Thank you all again for you inputs and advices. I know a lot of people are coming down on me about the whole GME fiasco part of my post. I bought BB stocks that day and obviously made the mistake to buy it near the top and then it came crashing down. I lost $400 on the impulse buy after I sold it at a 50% loss. I understand and appreciate the concerns. I am however not a gambler (I mean taking that BB stock aside) and just got caught up in the whole Reddit thing. It's honestly a one time thing and I've been super careful with my choices ever since (up close to 15% since it happened). It's a lesson well learned and one that humbled me to the stock market and to not put myself into something that I am definitely at a huge disadvantage. I really do appreciate the replies and messages of concern - but rest assured that was and will forever be a one time thing/lesson. + +Edit: Just wanted to thank the many of you for chiming in and giving your advice. It's been a fun learning experience so far but I started experiencing anxiety lately with my investments (getting jitters towards 9:30am and throughout the day, not sleeping fully at night, checking my stocks 100 times/day. Basically having my body in flight or fight mode all the time). The money that I have invested IS extra money and if I were to lose it I would still be more than ok. As someone who has worked pretty hard his entire life like many of you, seeing stocks dip and "potentially" losing money started to cause me anxiety out of nowhere (which I know makes no sense in terms of losing my money unless I sell at a loss...but go ahead and tell me that lol). I think I will take a safer, long term approach by buying ETF's and keeping some money in a personal account to "play" with. Again, thank you for taking the time to give your advice and not only help myself, but probably many others in the same shoes. +I really feel for people who lost money on 88E/XST/SGC today. It was a HUGE drop. I might not have held them personally, but my advice is to embrace the loss. It might suck heaps right now and it might take some time to recover emotionally, but it takes losses like this to learn how to get better. If you're serious at getting good at investing, losses like are necessary. + + +Getting consistently good isn't about always winning or getting lucky, but slowly learning how to lose less and less. Try to think about what it is that made it drop so much. Why did you invest in the first place? What were possible warning signs? Think about ways that you can avoid this situation in the future. But at the same time, some risks/red flags might have worked out well for other stocks, and it's not about what to completely avoid, but what to take into consideration when assessing risk. A certain amount of risk is necessary especially when you're working with pennies or binary outcomes like with mining or biotechs, but knowing when there's too much risk or how to better manage risk is invaluable, even at the most basic level. + + +I've lost huge percentages of investments and my portfolio so many times on degenerate shit (shout out to DXB you stupid fucker), but each time has taught me more about investing/trading and has added more knowledge to forming own personal strategy. + + +I don't claim to be good at all, and I might still be running on luck/bull market/etc, but my portfolio is on average increasing over time, even including the huge swings along the way. I enjoy doing this too much to quit, so I aim to get as good as I can. I'm a lazy fuck who's found a hobby that both involves being able to lie in bed while conducting in depth research and analysis and makes you money at the same time and I'm not letting go. + + +Finally, I just wanted to add some perspective to losses like this and is something I always think about when I lose money. I know people meme a lot about privilege, but I feel an immense amount of privilege every time I lose money. I was on the train the other day and a homeless guy basically made an address to the entire carriage about how he wanted some help about places to stay because he was so tired of sleeping in the streets and government assistance could only help him for so long. And the whole carriage just was silence, myself included. Like the dude looked depressed as fuck and the system has failed these people, yet here I am throwing thousands of dollars away sometimes investing. Just makes me feel so grateful for what I have and how I can lose money like that and barely be affected and still have a roof above my head. Honestly, if I ever have enough money to not have to work to survive, dedicating my time to helping people in need is something I'd really like to do. + + +But enough sadness, keep your chin up, good luck you degenerate gamblers. It's a tough world out there but you can all do it. + + +ORT ($ORT) is a revolutionary new token that is designed to facilitate fractionalized investment in real estate. Through a partnership with one of Spain’s most prestigious luxury real estate brands (OMNI Estate Group), the development team at Passive Income ($PSI) have created an NFT marketplace designed specifically for real estate investors. + +\*What is the goal of $ORT?\* +The team at OMNI-PSI have been working with top real estate and blockchain lawyers to ensure that fractionalized sales of property through NFTs can be done legally and fairly. There is a private sale coming up for $ORT holders where a $3m villa will be up for sale via fractionalized NFTs, this will allow investors of all sizes to benefit from the increasing value of real estate independently of the crypto market. + +Following the success of the first sale, the NFT marketplace will open up with hundreds of properties listed where investors both big and small can purchase property either outright or through fractionalized NFTs. +ORT is going to disrupt the real estate investment industry through the use of Blockchain technology. + + +\*Benefits for ORT Holders\* + + +Even if holders of $ORT aren’t looking to directly invest in property, there are many ways that they can benefit by simply holding and investing in the $ORT token. +They include: +\- Ability to use the NFT marketplace +\- Early access to new properties +\- Cashback on NFT purchases +\- Commission fees from property sales and rentals shared with ORT holders +\- Access to future product presales +\- Free stays in a luxury villa +And most obviously, the benefit of investing in a low market cap coin that is ready to destabilize an entire industry. +\*Who is behind $ORT?\* +Omni Estate Group and Passive Income are pioneers in the region's real estate market and blockchain technology. With a stronghold of 22,000 properties in their database, OMNI Estate Group is at the forefront of the market as one of the most trusted luxury real estate agents and are also featured on the list for the world's most innovative agencies.  + +Passive Income is a blockchain startup with lots of experience in the crypto space and aims to connect real world businesses with blockchain technology, bringing the most innovative solutions to their clients. + +All team members for both companies are fully public and have been KYC’d. They regularly hold voice chats and live streams for their Telegram communities. + + +\*Marketing\* +There has already been a lot of interest from influencers in both the real estate and cryptocurrency space. These include names such as: + +\- Nate Diaz +\- David Rock +\- Marcus Dahlgren +\- Vincente Ortiz +To celebrate the launch of the NFT Marketplace, they will also be holding a launch party where they will be flying 2 $ORT investors out to Marbella, all expenses paid. This event will be filmed and launched as part of an OMNI-PSI branded podcast series which will feature guest appearances from both real estate and blockchain influencers. + +Following the launch of the NFT Marketplace, there will be a huge push on marketing this podcast on multiple channels to ensure a good crossover between a real estate and crypto audience.  + +Additionally, there will be a strong advertising presence both digitally and in traditional forms. Currently there are billboards across Marbella advertising the project and this will soon expand to other regions such as London and Dubai. + + +The aim is to make the concept as accessible to traditional real estate investors as possible, while also introducing real estate investment to crypto users. + + +\- Token Name: $ORT + +\- Contract: BSC [https://bscscan.com/token/0x1d64327c74d6519afef54e58730ad6fc797f05ba](https://bscscan.com/token/0x1d64327c74d6519afef54e58730ad6fc797f05ba) + +\*\*Pancake Swap\*\* [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1d64327c74d6519afef54e58730ad6fc797f05ba](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1d64327c74d6519afef54e58730ad6fc797f05ba) + + +\*\*Whitepaper\*\* +[https://omni-psi.com/main-images/omnipsipresentation.pdf](https://omni-psi.com/main-images/omnipsipresentation.pdf) +\*\*CERTIK Audit\*\* +[https://omni-psi.com/main-images/Certikauditreport.pdf](https://omni-psi.com/main-images/Certikauditreport.pdf) +\*\*Telegram\*\* +[https://t.me/omnipsi](https://t.me/omnipsi) +\*\*Twitter\*\* +[https://twitter.com/omniestategroup](https://twitter.com/omniestategroup) + +\*\*BSC Contract Address\*\* + +0x1d64327C74d6519afeF54E58730aD6fc797f05Ba +It is not a great investment , but back in 2009-11 I invested in BAC between $5.00-8.00 range. I own it in multiple accounts, but in one account I got 6,999 shares over 2 years period of time. I was receiving only 0.2 shares initially(dividend cut). As of today, I have 14,335.098 shares of BAC in that account because of DRIP.Over first few years it was hardly 10 shares per quarter. I am now getting 300-400 shares per year. Looking at all the past drips, I am surprised at how fast it grew recently. + +I only invest in value stocks as I get quite nervous buying at market highs. DRIP helped me a lot because of more shares I get for a given amount. + +Just sharing to let others know that it can happen. +Hey there everyone. + +One thing I see often on this subreddit is about how extremely young people start to invest into a dividend portfolio, and continue to save every dollar they can. Just the other day I saw a 16 year old on this sub starting his portfolio. + +The best thing I always tell all my friends about finances, is the sooner you start, the better off you will be due to compounded interest. If you are especially more aggressive your first couple of years, it will even reap the benefits more. + +However, I also tell them to enjoy their youth, and don't nickel & dime everything you do. Your most precious time of your life is going to be your youth (especially college and 20s to Mid 30s) + +Seriously, enjoy your youth. Statistically speaking, the average person that is a super aggressive saver is not going to FIRE or Live off dividends until their 40s. Your youth is gone. + +I believe the best approach to it is like this: + +**Post College -** Get new job, pay down debt from school (if the loan has high % low percentage not really), aggressively save into 401k/dividend portfolio until mid-20s + +**Mid 20s-Early 30s -** Focus on your career, save, but not too aggressively. Focus on house/property and checking out different things in life. + +**Mid 30s to 40s -** Try saving more to live off the dividends before 50. + +TLDR: Enjoy your life. Trying to live off your dividend portfolio is great, but don't forget you only get one shot at life. Enjoy it. +Been hanging out here since the start of 2022...and can't decide becoming a full time degenerate or be like those guys in ausfinance... + +Bought ETFs when the were high, sold them in the dip... Serves me right. + +Anyway, can someone please introduce me to Tom and Barry? +Throwaway account. + +TL:DR -- how do you know when enough is enough? + +Age: 37 (Married, 3 kids) + +Location: MCOL United States + +Net Worth: $13M (Only debt is about $500k remaining on home mortgage) + +Salary: $580k + +About 8 years ago I joined the leadership team of a Pre-IPO company that has had an amazing run. I wasn't on the founding team, but was a critical addition to the team about 2 years later and negotiated equity well. I got to attend our IPO in-person, which has been the highlight of my professional career. I have hundreds of people working for me globally. I love the company, the founders, the job, and my team - but post-IPO activities are sucking the life out of me. + +When I joined I had so much fun with the small team trying to solve really difficult problems and we had such an awesome team to figure things out and we could be nimble, I really love the IPO vibe. Now things are much more corporate and stodgy and becoming more and more difficult to try out bold new things or just to effect change generally. + +Last year I was recruited to join the C-Suite of another series-B startup and I accepted the position. I was excited to get back to that scrappy scene of trying to figure things out, and I figured I was financially in a great spot to take startup risk because I'm in 8-figure NW territory due to the success of my current company. + +My current company countered... hard. I had every member of the C-Suite calling me multiple times per day for 3 days after my resignation, and board members. I was offered platinum handcuffs in the terms of a 4-year RSU grant and a commitment in writing for additional RSU grants over the next 3 years of minimum evergreen grants. Factoring in some of the ISO/RSU grants that I'm still vesting - it would be about $15M over the next 7 years. I accepted the counter-offer and stayed in my job. Handcuffs for $$$. + +I currently have a NW of $13M, mostly due to the equity and the amazing IPO run. + +My job is pretty high stress. I work 70 hours a week - frequently having to do firefighting with clients at all hours of the day, I try to step away for dinner with my family and get the kids in bed and then I'm usually back in my home office working until 11pm/midnight. The stress has taken its toll on my marriage at times and my health - but not to the extreme. I'm not seriously concerned, but I would like to weigh 20lbs less and spend an extra 4 hours a day with my wife and kids. + +I fantasize a lot about RE - spending my time golfing, volunteering with my church, being way more involved with my kids lives, exercise and outdoors time, travel, etc. -- but I can't pull the trigger. Even though I have $13M which I think is plenty to live on for the rest of my life, I feel compelled to stay because walking away from $15M over 7 years seems like lunacy. 99% of the people would prob voluntarily serve a 7 year prison sentence for $15M. But on the other hand -- I also don't really want to burn through my prime formative years of my kids lives and have money to share with them but not memories. + +How do you know when enough is enough? +I typed this and then realized that it’s not far off from WSB and all of their new users. Ehm: + +“Yeah bro, did you see the triple-double dead cat ninja bounce on SNDL today? That’s when knew for sure it was going to the moon 🚀 Those ‘hedgies’ are coming at us with a hexagonal rainbow medium-length ladder attack, slightly from the left side, with two rungs missing.” + +The 18-20 year old non-humble new trader continues... + +“Luckily, I am smarter than them and according to my calculations SNDL is guaranteed to be at $54.72 minimum by the end of the week as long as long as we see a Moonrise Kingdom appear in the moving average at noon tomorrow. If instead we see the Nuclear Zyklon Boomerang cross over from the MACD to the VWAP at 10:43 AM then buy 7 shares, 2 calls, and sell 9 puts. Bro, moon 🚀” + +Edit: “Forgot to mention that I’ve got diamond hands ✋🏻💎✋🏻💎 Listen to my DD because I made $1.3 mil in 2 hours yesterday off of the hyper-jackknife nipple clamp play I made. Now I’m the richest 19 year old in the state of Idaho. Diamond hands.” + +Not that far off from all the new traders, is it? +Take it any direction you'd like but please keep it relevant to success, happiness and enjoyment within fatFIRE, family, life, investing, career, or business. + +I'll go first with two of the more valuable thoughts I frequently revisit (among many others, happy to share): + +* **The grass is greener where you water it... usually.** There is a fine line around "usually" and only through experience do you get better at evaluating where you should water vs actually jumping the fence. Through careful consideration you'll find that 95% of the time the right answer is watering where you are. Think about this when you are dissatisfied in an area of your life and believe external changes will bring resolution +* **Ichigo Ichie ("one time, one meeting" in Japanese).** Similar to the Stoic idea of momento mori meaning "remember, you will die". You'll never have the exact same experience twice in life, so take every moment in and enjoy it. Enjoy the people you are with, work you are doing, food you are eating and places you go because you'll never do it again exactly the same way. Heres a good [article](https://www.mindbodygreen.com/articles/what-is-ichigo-ichie-10-rules-of-the-japanese-way-to-happiness) with a few other more thoughts/examples to chew on + +Edit: link is not my article or blog / self promotion nor am I affiliated with it in any way + +Edit 2: THANK YOU ALL! This is an absolutely amazing thread that I'll cherish for a long time and hope others will do the same. +One of our Quality Contributors, /u/handsomeboh, here works at a Hedge Fund. + +WallStreetBets and GameStop have put Hedge Funds in the public eye recently, especially on Reddit. So, ask your questions about them here. + +Handsomeboh provides the following bio: + + "I'm an Analyst in one of the largest and most famous Hedge Funds in the world + (not going to reveal which one or where because I don't want to get doxxed). + I graduated with a BA in History & Economics, then worked 1.5 years in M&A at + an investment bank, before I moved over to the hedge fund. + + I'm one of the guys who pores through reports and filings, trying to figure out + whether we should have long or short positions (or maybe something more + creative involving options) in different companies. Ask me anything - I won't + respond to any obvious trolls, but I'll try my best to be as objective as possible." +I have 31 shares of Tesla with a current return of around $38,400. I put $12,500 into Tesla initially. Do I break even & sell 8 shares and pay off my vehicle and keep 23 shares? +I don't know where I messed up, I thought I taught her well on what to look for in a man. + +The guy just showed up at my house and starting rambling on about how DCAing 30 dollars in 4 months into Safemoon helped him understand finance and geopolitics. I told him he was completely oblivious about being in a ponzi, this only unchained a what I believed to be a cocaine induced speech saying that Safemoon was going to be the next Bitcoin and he was going to moon while buying *"lambos"* for his friends because he was no *"Bitch-ass paperhands"*. + +I'm a bank executive, so you can only imagine what a nightmare this is for me. + +Don't know what the point of this post is, is not like my daughter is going to stop dating that idiot anyways. I'm scared about my daughter's future. + +Sorry, I needed to vent. +Inspired by the $120M exit post ([https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pwunq5/120m\_exit\_fireing\_and\_trying\_to\_hire\_a\_private/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/pwunq5/120m_exit_fireing_and_trying_to_hire_a_private/)), let's take a step back and discuss about how people with $100M+ net worth actually managed their money in real life. + +I am actually one of the lucky few that reached $100M. ((I had to sign up a new reddit account to stay anonymous but can show proof to mod.) I started with $30M of windfall through a company IPO about a decade ago and am currently at $120M-$130M at the moment depending how you value my private holdings. I am a rare bread that I don't use big financial advisors. But here is my current NW breakdown. + +&#x200B; + +\- Index Funds. (Mix of DFA/Vanguard): $30M + +\- Concentrated Portfolio (kept some IPO stocks and other speculations including crypto): $45M + +\- Foundation/DAF: $5M + +\- Real Estate (incl primary residence, beach house and 4 rentals): $15M + +\- Private Investments (angel investments + vc funds): $25M - $35M + +&#x200B; + +\------------------------------ + +I don't like big private banks. I tried to let one of the big banks handled my account, they generate tons of trades but returns was poor. I specifically asked them not to get into any private investments because I was going to make them myself. I am glad I did that so I could get the control back easily and I have been doing well on my own. In retrospect, I do feel I spend too much time on investing my money. If I had just put everything into a well balanced index fund, I probably will end up getting the same results. I am glad that I spent quite a bit of time on early stage investments though. I think it's a great way to stay close to the tech ecosystem and see a number of entrepreneurs grow their companies into behemoths and become great leaders. + +&#x200B; + +I see the $30M index funds as my safety net that will cover the expenses for the rest of my life. The Real Estate's value is mostly personal use assets while the rentals pay for property taxes and are tax efficient. I do plan to gradually move my concentrated portfolio into my foundation and private investments over the next 20 years. I know how to do early stage investing and I think it's a great way to invest into human capital and create long term value. + +&#x200B; + +Overall, I think focusing on the numbers and returns is the wrong approach with this level of net worth. It's more about + +1. What are my and my family's needs and wants? +2. What do I want to do with my life? +3. How do I make this wealth useful in the grand scheme of things in the long run? + +&#x200B; + +I think I have pretty good answers for 1) but I am constantly contemplating 2) and 3) still. I believe I will have the answers eventually by experimenting different things. I will report back if I have more thoughts. + +&#x200B; + +\--------------------------- + +For folks with $100M NW, how do you manage your money and life? +Hey guys! I'm back six months later with a new version of the budgeting spreadsheet I made. Earlier this year I posted the spreadsheet I made for myself and it really resonated with people. As I got more and more feedback I found places where I could improve and develop the sheet into something easier to use but still useful. + +You can find pictures of it [HERE](https://imgur.com/a/63LxvUQ) + +A bit of background on me and why I made this- and also why it's made the way it is. I grew up poor and was never taught about HOW to handle money. If we had money it was already needed for other things. Food, Bills, all of the money we had already had a place. This made me get a mentality that if I had money I needed to spend it before something came up and the money would go. It's unhealthy, but it was the only thing I knew until I moved out. I was taught that money would disappear if I didn't use it, so I just USED it. Even now I still feel anxiety about money and can spend recklessly if I'm not careful. + +&#x200B; + +Another problem I faced is that I have ADHD, so impulse control can be hard, and it can also be hard to keep track of every purchase and focus on a bunch of aspects of a budget. This spreadsheet is made so you only focus on ONE number. + +&#x200B; + +I have made this sheet- and previous versions of it- with three goals in mind: + +* That it be easy to use +* that I can focus on one daily number while supporting my long term goals +* that it be a good starting place for people who have never had another budget + +The sheet is divided into a few different tools. + +Budget: + +* Select your pay schedule, add any extra income/tips that you get monthly and select the percentage of that income that you want to save. +* the credit card section allows you to input up to five cards and adds your monthly car payments to your expenses +* The expenses area is where you'll add all of your itemized expenses. You can also select when your bill is due during the month- allowing you to see if early on in the month your spendable is different from later on in the month. + +Your budget summary at the top is the breakdown of all the information below. YES I know pie charts aren't useful for everything- but that is useful to visually digest information. Look and see where your money is going, see if you spend more than you earn, and finally- see how much money you can spend. + +&#x200B; + +This sheet focuses on giving you ONE number to remember. Daily Spendable. If you want to spend money throughout the day you just have to make sure you DONT go over that number and you will always have enough to cover any other expenses. + + I don't work well with a lot of budgets because I have issues imagining the big picture. By giving myself a daily/weekly/monthly budget I can make sure that on any given day I haven't spent more than I'm allowed to- and if I do i can see where I'm borrowing from or where that money is supposed to come from. + +There are a few extra features too- a large purchase calculator that lets you figure how long youd have to save to buy a larger purchase. It includes a monthly tracker that lets you see what youre spending realistically vs what you've budgeted for and finally a daily tracker for further breakdown. + +&#x200B; + +Finally +[LINK THREE](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vekdgMTyWO9VSTyDN-8XVr4I-WGuDfpbiZd6-vrpf_Y/copy) + +Changes: Added a bi weekly option so you stop asking me to redo math, please yall, its an open spreadsheet you can edit it but i did this one for you. Also NOTE: Yall i wont make an excel version. Some of the functions/graphs break, and the whole point of this is that i made it for myself and i want to share it freely, what means not a paid program- i'm sorry! +Hi yall, I am a not an economist, so apologies if I get something wrong. My question is based on the (correct?) assumption that most of mainstream economics has been empirically validated and that much of MMT flies in the face of mainstream economics. + +I have been looking for a specific and clear comparison of MMT’s assertions compared to those of the assertions of mainstream economics. Something that could be understood by someone with an introductory economics textbook (like myself haha). Any suggestions for good reading? Or can any of yall give me a good summary? Thanks in advance! +Throw away account. 31M, recently hit my number of $5M in VTSAX with the market going up and I'm burnt out from my job. I'm in a niche industry where I can't take a sabbatical and when I leave my industry it is very unlikely I will ever be able to find another job that pays as much ever again ($1M pre-tax). I don't have many hobbies since my job has consumed all my time in the last decade, but some of my best memories growing up were playing Starcraft and doing raids in WoW. It was a flow state where I felt like I could play those games nonstop without any other worries in the world. I haven't had much time to do anything like that in years and my goal has always been to play more video games when I stopped working. Has anyone here retired relatively young to play video games full time? Has it been fulfilling? +Yo, health check time: + +- Get proper sleep +- Eat proper food +- Stretch occasionally +- 💦 HYDRATE 💦 + + +I'm sure we've all been glued to our screens all week, but please make sure you take care of yourselves. + +If you promise to do a good job, we can take turns piloting the rockets 🚀🚀🚀 +When either rehabbing a property to make it rent ready, or just generally upkeeping it during turnover, what flooring materials, paints, cabinets, etc, do you trust and use most often? I'm putting together a list of materials to make decision making easier down the road and I'd like the opinions of those of you who are seasoned and have real experience with specific materials (vinyl flooring types and brands, laminate, tile, faucets, light fixtures, what-have-you). I've looked things over in the store and read their little sales pitches but I'm skeptical of anything a company says about their own product. "We're the most durable in the business", "This paint hides stains and cleans easily", "These cabinets are life-proof". So I'm coming to you guys who have nothing to gain or lose by spilling the best and worst products you've used in your rentals. +I turned 16 some months ago and got my first job. I’ve saved up every paycheck and spent my money on nothing other than insurance and gas. I’m not saving for anything but would like to turn my money into more money but have no idea how to do it. Any suggestions? +Couldn't governments just heavily tax companies (not individuals) that emit lots of CO2 and use that money to subsidize investing in green energy? Then companies would be incentivized to lower emissions and transition towards green energy. As investment into green energy initiatives grew and emissions lowered they could adjust the taxes (even higher taxes to diminish the last emissions and use that money to keep subsidizing green energy) +It sounds like it can't be that simple but I don't see why not +Sorry if this seems stupid because I understand that lots of smart people have spent lots of time thinking about this so I am aware I'm not coming up with a revolutionary idea here, just curious for an explanation of why this doesn't work as intended or why it is not done more + Raise funds without any sustainable growth model. Pay 2000 Rs to acquire a customer whose life time value is less than 700 to 800. In the process diluting their equity to 5% from 100% and losing control on their vision..Look Zomato, even after 10 years they are still living paycheck to paycheck..I mean surviving on investor money...The IPO was also done to survive as cash had finished. Founders stake almost 0. Flipkart also, founders during exit had almost 7% stake so emotional connect left..all in the name of being a unicorn and becoming a puppet of VCs.. + +India could have set up the example to the world in terms of giving a middle finger to VC money but Bangalore chose to copy silicon valley model. Hope we can still change...TCS Infosys and other cos though not sexy were built that they could last for 50 to 100 years..Today's founders lose control in 5 years max so no way they can control the trajectory of the business for long. + +All because VCs force founders to become a unicorn and only focus on becoming bigger and bigger. Why Entrpreneurs cannot create something they love doing and have a vision of 50 to 60 years rather than becoming a billionaire in 5 to 6 years... + +Its not passion its all get rich quick before my neighbour. The day Entrpreneurs in India start saying No to VC money to just mindless expansion and would first want to build a business that they want to run for 50 to 100 years, it would create so many amazing companies and also change VCs behaviour towards Entrpreneurs in India. + +Oyo setup such a bad example to Indian Entrpreneurs. Entire business funded on VC money. The founder attended Peter Theil school in the valley, so just got so inspired by silicon valley model of business building it seems and on top VCs like Softbank destroy Entrepreneurs rather ignite the spark within Entrepreneurs. + +All this will go down to ashes ina decade or so and Entrpreneurs would want to think local and create sustainable solutions to their ideas rather than relying on liquidity alone to achieve their dreams. +My father passed away last year and i just received my portion of his estate and it was way more than i ever expected. The people closest to me keep suggesting i invest in buying a home, but I’m only 22 and i don’t even know where i would want to live if i bought a house. I definitely want to pay off my car but i have no idea where to go from there. + +If possible I’d like to make this money grow, but i have no idea how to do that. Does anyone have any suggestions? +Spent 8 months chasing a refund cheque for £300 and finally got a cheque through after what feels like months of phone calls for £3000…. The evil part of me wants to cash it and then when they notice say “you should hear within 6 weeks”…. Do I phone them now and get a new cheque or do I cash it, keep the £300 and return the rest when they ask? +Drove by a for sale by owner sign on some land the other day up in the mountains of NC. I checked out some of the property and the forest is very thick. Called the guy up and he informed me it’s 41 acres at $8k per acre but he’s negotiable. + +So seller is wanting around $320k. He also informed me that he was quoted around $20 per ton from a local mill to harvest the timber. He said he’s just too busy to deal with all of that and the land has been in his family for multi generations and wants to get rid of it. + +Anybody ever harvested timber? I wouldn’t want to clear cut, as I’m kind of a tree hugger. But even if the 41 acres was thinned it seems like there’s potential multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars in timber sitting there. Seems like a too good to be true scenario as it could potentially make all my money back plus some. + +What am I missing? Has anyone harvested land and if so how much can one expect? Are my numbers off? + +TL;DR: 41 Acres for $320k. Can potentially make all that money back if I harvest the timber on the land. Has anyone done this before? +So I’m closing on my first rental on 6/2 and I got an email from the title company yesterday saying that due to the pandemic they insist on getting the wire transfer complete well before closing. The email stated that they will sending wire instructions soon and they won’t be available to talk because she was very busy that day. The email title had my property address and an official looking signature line. I was like “ok makes sense” but also they haven’t even appraised the property yet so I don’t know what the Cash to Close would actually be just the estimate. They sent the wire instructions a little while later. Now my mortgage broker has sent me some generic emails a while back about wire fraud and to always confirm wire instructions over the phone. So I did that, well the title company never sent me any emails that day!! The email signature matched perfectly but the email address with totally fake. THANK GOD I called to confirm or I would have been out 50k and likely never have tried real estate investing again. + + +Moral of story- always call to confirm wire instructions and I would also say independently confirm the telephone number of the title company before calling. +**$ULTRA** has been a completely dominant force in the space recently, from shattering world records to surging past a 80 million dollar market cap in 2 days, it's clear that **ULTRA** is already the next top coin. + +After months of waiting, I think it's safe to say this subreddit has found the next safemoon. + +It seems the team has some huge connections to be able to get listed on coingecko in 16 hours and gain the attention of nearly 20,000 holders. + +As a fully rug-proof token, **Ultrasafe** has all liquidity locked for 79 years, contract ownership renounced, and an official audit completed by Solidity. A CerTiK audit is also on the way and should be completed in the next few days based off the info from the telegram. + +You may be thinking, I missed it again, but this project hasn't even started if you think about the constantly rising price floor and the huge announcements on the way. Flash mobs, billboards, and an NFT marketplace are on the way. As we reach 25,000 holders there have been hints of potential high level CEX listings. + +**Ultrasafe**'s tokenomics allow for 4% of every transaction to be distributed to the liquidity pool and 4% to be reflected among holders. + +The team has so far constantly delivered, so ask your self, am I going to buy in now, or am I going to buy in in a few days when Ultra is a at a **1B** market cap and listed on centralized exchanges. + + 💬 Telegram: [https://t.me/UltraSafeOfficial](https://t.me/UltraSafeOfficial) + + **🌐** Website: [https://ultrasafe.finance/](https://ultrasafe.finance/) + + 🐦Twitter: [https://twitter.com/UltraSafeBSC](https://twitter.com/UltraSafeBSC) + + **💰** Pancake: [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x0b3f42481c228f70756dbfa0309d3ddc2a5e0f6a](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x0b3f42481c228f70756dbfa0309d3ddc2a5e0f6a) +So, I work full time, I earn around £24,000 a year. After bills, I have around £600 a month to live off (and pretty much provide for another person), including fuel and food etc. By the end of every month, I'm usually skint, in my overdraft, or borrowing bits of money from parents, which I hate. + +I've got £300 from my 30th birthday. + +I need ideas what to do with it. I always fancied trying to make furniture and sell it as a side hustle. By I'm not great and this 300 is really precious, so I'm not sure if I want to buy tools for something I'm not skilled in yet. + +What would you do with a spare £300? I know it's not a lot, but it's all I have. + +Just trying to show some initiative and turn things around a little. + +Thanks! +I’m 46. Net worth 5.5M with no debt and I hold crypto and real estate. I left my job last June. And I feel zero dread, existential issues or drive to find my next mental battle. I drive the kids to school. Look for new properties. I watch a movie or two weekly when the kids are in school. I take a 10-15 minute nap a day. I may buy a semi absentee franchise to keep me busy but I’m good. I can run this life until I’m dead. Why is everyone so messed up here? Take your wins and go home and be content. +Maybe I'm mistaken, but it appears that in pretty much every other developed country salaries >250k USD are nearly unheard of compared to the US where many bankers, doctors, lawyers, engineers, and managers are making that much. + + +I've been landlording for 5 years and had several challenges arise but this is the first time a tenant has died. + +Long story short: House is paid for. I rent it out. Things go well first year. Covid happens and I decide to not raise rent on any of my rentals for 2 years because times are hard for everyone. The tenants at said house start to struggle and lose their employment during Covid. I start a payment plan each month and they are able to pay the rent over across 3 fees spread out over each month. They are living paycheck to paycheck. + +They suddenly are really late and miss their promise to pay. I investigate and find out the one of the tenants changes job and they are paid on different weeks. I wait an extra week and they pay everything and things return to normal. + +2 months later (now, days before Christmas) car wreck. Husband dies and other family in critical care... + +I tell them not to worry as they try to find funds for burial. I'll work with them on their rent. I really don't think they will be able pay in the future since the major "bread winner" has passed. I have a plan on what to do but I'm reaching out to all of y'all to see what you would do in my situation. + +What do you do? + +The house is paid for. Taxes and insurance continues to increase. Their are occasional issues with this house and I've already thrown away 8 months profit replacing HVAC and various appliance that wore out this year (it was expected). I'm financially okay, but have other plans for this money and this is a business, but I am by no means going to evict a single mother and her kids after losing their father just before Christmas. These tenants have rented from me for about 3 years. That's some of the background. +Peter Lynch as well as Warren Buffett, Li Lu and Charlie Munger all believe that you have to understand exactly what you are investing in. + +But when do you know if you really understand enough? Often it seems at first glance that the business model of a company is quite simple. + +In my opinion, this also has to do with the Dunning-Kruger effect. The less you know, the more you think you know. When you get more involved in the subject matter, you realize how much you don't know. + +Unfortunately, it has already happened to me. I thought I understood a company well. But it was only when I became more intensively involved with the industry, the customers and the suppliers that I realized how little I actually knew..... + +The loss was quickly 40%. Since then, I have always worked with a checklist that covers the most important questions that I ask myself during the analysis process. + +So far I've done a lot better with it..... ↘️ + + [Analyze company ](https://pyrchase.com/unternehmen-richtig-analysieren-und-bewerten/) + +What's your take on this? +Do you also need a checklist? +Do you guys even pay attention to building a deep understanding of your investments? +Hi, + +I work in a cyber security related role and so I know cybersecurity professionals like having crypto as a hobby. + +With all these new alt-coins about like Doge coin which ones are even investing in? + +Is it still even investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum? + +Thanks +Ever since i opened an account for investing, i started thinking about every penny i spent and how it can contribute to my portfolio if i added it. Every spent above 100€ is being audited before done😂 +I just started investing a couple of months ago, so do you think it will wear off or it gets crazier lol +I'm a newer investor and newer reader to these threads and I'm a little surprised how casually a lot of people talk about different companies and industries that are objectively pretty unethical. + +I mean we're living through a major climate crisis and some of the most hyped investments on here are for oil sands companies (which are one of the most carbon intensive energy sources on the planet) and crypto (Bitcoin alone this year is supposed to have the same carbon footprint as all of New Zealand). + +I also just saw someone post something in another investing subreddit about how Europe might ban AI for surveillance and it seemed like a bad or annoying thing to a lot of people in the comments. + +I'm just genuinely curious: do a lot of the investor world just genuinely not care about these things or are people content to make small gains on the backs of companies that they don't agree with? Is there a point to using your gains to get a waterfront property if it's going to be underwater in a couple decades anyways? +I keep reading articles/stories etc about employers "desperately needing staff" and "cant find any staff" but when you dig a little deeper you learn that the reason they can't find any is because they dont want to pay above the award rate or acknowledge the fact that in a competitive labour market(which we are in) you have to compete for staff by offering higher pay. + +It's almost like a type of derangement where they refuse to ackowledge the fact and would rather just suffer with lack of staff than just pay a little bit extra. Has anyone else noticed this or have similar stories? + +One of the relevant articles - [https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/please-take-a-job-queensland-businesses-at-breaking-point/news-story/9cb73e36c7f375e79bb90db16ab8d8fd](https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/please-take-a-job-queensland-businesses-at-breaking-point/news-story/9cb73e36c7f375e79bb90db16ab8d8fd) +Someone today here asked why India doesn't transfer money directly to recipients like how the US does. I read a lot of answers and I think that India does transfer money directly to recipients. It is just that unlike a direct handout, it is made to look as though its a job under MGNREGA. + +However the details of MGNREGA is such that even if the government doesn't have a job for a rural person who is enrolled in the program, it needs to provide a certain amount of unemployment benefits for sure. + +MGNREGA in a way has been India's version of handouts for quite some time now. On a rural visit from my college, I saw participants of MGNREGA involving in activities like removing grass from the sideways etc. These don't necessarily add to the GDP in a significant manner but the rural people were getting their money nonetheless. + +I also think that the government has substantially hiked the allocation towards MGNREGA in the last budget because of the reverse migration from covid-19 pandemic. + +So, yeah, the government does dole out freebies and direct cash benefits in India. However, these are predominantly limited to the bottom 80-90% of the folks. If you're reading this, you're most likely in the top 10-20% of the folks in this country. +Hi everyone — appreciate y’all’s advice / thoughts on the below! (Also don’t worry, I am planning on speaking with an attorney soon). + +At a high-level: + +I am marrying (in ~ 1 year) a partner with low-earning potential and high assets (family wealth). I have high-earning potential and low assets. + +Our views on prenups: + +My partner and I agree that our prenup should be written so that neither of us are disproportionately negatively impacted in the event of a divorce. She agrees that it would be unfair for her to take 1/2 of my earned income/investments since it won’t make a big difference to her but would make a massive difference for me. (If I strike it big and my NW eclipses hers then that’s a different story). + + +Complication: + +Her father firmly believes that all earned income during the marriage and after is to be split. + +My financial situation: + +I make $225k/year and expect my salary to grow ~10%/year (with the potential for several larger increases from promotions). My NW is ~$60k (I have sizable undergrad and graduate loans). + +Partner’s financial situation: + +She makes ~$65k/year as an elementary school teacher. She has roughly $2-3M in assets under her name. She is set to receive ~$10M-$20M in the future in the form of trusts and inheritance. + +Thank you so much in advance!!! +Let's not forget who the real culprits were: Wall Street and Big Banks. + +[https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535](https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535) +[https://www.ft.com/content/b9d21ee4-c94a-4b10-aef8-532bf11fcc4f](https://www.ft.com/content/b9d21ee4-c94a-4b10-aef8-532bf11fcc4f) + +Am I the only one that thinks this is nuts? They have delivered 20,000 cars to date.... seems like prime tech froth +>The wealthiest 10% of Americans now own 89% of all U.S. stocks, a record high that highlights the stock market’s role in increasing wealth inequality. The top 1% gained over $6.5 trillion in corporate equities and mutual fund wealth during the Covid-19 pandemic, while the bottom 90% added $1.2 trillion, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. The share of corporate equities and mutual funds owned by the top 10% reached the record high in the second quarter, while the bottom 90% of Americans held about 11% of stocks, down from 12% before the pandemic. The stock market, which has nearly doubled since the March 2020 drop and is up nearly 40% since January 2020, was the main source of wealth creation in America during the pandemic — as well as the main driver of inequality. The total wealth of the top 1% now tops 32%, a record, according to the Fed data. Nearly 70% of their wealth gains over the past year and a half — one of the fastest wealth booms in recent history — came from stocks. + +The IPO system probably plays a part... Also there is a saying that they never sell but rather take a loan on the stocks. +Hummus is my favourite food in the world, and I think it will eventually outsell all other spreads and dips. How the hell do I invest in this shit? Chickpeas? I dunno. Googling just brings up recipes and stuff. +I’m in a microeconomic class right now and I feel like all of this would be so much easier/intuitive/effective if we used calculus. Elasticity, marginal benefit, everything. There’s no way this can be used in the real world without calculus right? Why isn’t the class taught with calculus in mind. +I've often wondered if there is something I'm missing about how wealth is understood at the billionaire level. Most of their value is not in cash so isn't what they are worth more of an appraisal? + +I understand scapegoating billionaires. But I wonder how could we expect them to pay for things when they don't have cash, or with value that isn't real but rather projected. + +How much of the 100 billion in Jeff's worth is translatable to increases in Amazon wages? How would that process work? + +I thank you in advance and am not looking for political answers but distinctly economic ones. +I was in r/askphilosophy and someone asked whether it was ethical to tip, as while you are helping the individual server, you are helping support a system that means servers get paid below minimum wage in the US. + +What would the effects of stopping tipping be, and what are the reasons why there isn't more of a drive to change this? + + + +I am from UK so I think tips should be there to recognise exceptional service. + +Don't just say not tipping is for a-holes, just asking about effects, and the economics surrounding tipping. +I recently became a millionaire this past month at the age of 29, but realized that my life has not materially changed in any way. I still have to continue going to my day job as I can't afford to live off my investments in my HCOL area. I've done some calculations and my fatFIRE number is 7-8M. I would be able to live very comfortably on that number and could splurge here and there but I would still need to budget. With inflation, that number could be 10M when I turn 40 in a decade. This is also assuming that I stay single and/or have no kids in the future. + +Growing up, being a millionaire was always viewed as extraordinary accomplishment and it still is, but today a million dollars doesn't take you very far. The term millionaire was created in the 1700s or 1800s. Adjusted for inflation, a million dollars in 1900 would be worth around 30M today. I don't think you need 30M to be considered rich, but a millionaire is not what it once used to be. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +There is this website titled [WTF happened in 1971](https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/) which is on the one hand a compilation of economic and related charts showing what can be inferred as a massive change for the worse, while on the other hand basically an ad for crypto + +*(Please refrain from shilling both for and against crypto in your replies as it is off topic and will hopefully be removed by mods as such.)* + +Of course the literal answer is not difficult to figure out: + +[On 15 August 1971, the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) + +but I'm really puzzled about all these effects, their desirability, whether it was worth it ,and if not, how can such a bad thing persist to this day. Idk... I can't even figure out how to formulate what I want to ask. Looking at all that stuff is just really unsettling and likely consistent with the experience of most of us, I would just like to see a discussion on it to understand why, and why for 50 years and still going. + +I have a very hazy and layman-like understanding of the drawbacks of the gold standard... it's just hard to imagine that this is better. + +(nth) edit: also... what are the alternatives to this? Is this the best we can do? +Got to 400k in the brokerage account today. Can't really share with any of my friends without looking like an asshole so decided to celebrate this milestone with you guys instead. My only regret is not investing in tech sooner. + +Also shoutout to the community for being such a consistent source of high quality information. +I’m a 24yr old electrician making about 600 a week and it’s almost impossible for me to afford anything. I had a roommate for a while, we were paying 600 a month for our place. That plus my 500 a month car note left me with pretty much no money. How do ppl do it? Especially ppl making less, working retail and fast food?? I wanna be financially stable but I just don’t see that happening.. any advice? +Ok so the title is a a bit click batey, but hear me out. + +In the hopes of wanting to FatFire, many aspiring entrepreneurs seek to build the next big tech product, build the next unicorn. No hate on that, but all know the odds of success with a tech startup are low and many/most fail - or at least fail to reach the lofty heights they aspire to. In my opinion, there is a goldmine out there that is often overlooked (and a much easier path to wealth generation for technical founders). + +We’ve all heard of the great wealth transfer. For those of you that have not, feel free to Google it, but to summarise: + +“Baby Boomers, the generation of people born between 1944 and 1964, are expected to transfer $30 trillion in wealth to younger generations over the next many years. This jaw-dropping amount has led many journalists and financial experts to refer to the gradual event as the “great wealth transfer.”” + +The baby boomer generation have built some great business which will either sell, close or be handed down to children in the coming years as they look to retire. This has already begun. There is an opportunity here to acquire these business and transform them with technology. + +A strategy I have applied is to acquire B2B service businesses. 2 acquisitions done and 2 in the pipeline. Each business has been founder operated and founders have been in the 60-70 years age bracket. The businesses I’ve acquired and the ones I’m working on now, have steady 15-20% EBITDA margins and have bankable revenue for the past 6-7 years. No growth, just steady recurring revenue, but they haven’t changed in 20 years. + +My strategy is to acquire these boring service businesses for 3-5 x EBITDA and transform them by adding a layer of technology to the company. Something as simple as a customer facing application that changes how your customers engage and interact with the service offering can dramatically increase the ability to win business, retain customers, automate business process etc. + +Also, tech enabled business service companies trade for significantly higher EBITDA multiples than standard service companies. We acquire for 3-5x but valuations on our biz are in the low double digit range. The EBITDA arbitrage opportunities are considerable. + +Following this strategy, we have been named as “disruptors” in our little corner of the world, but we have not created anything life changing by a long stretch, just designed a better mouse trap. It’s easy to be the best in a sleepy industry. + +So, I think there is an opportunity for technical founders to consider acquiring more traditional service businesses and figuring out how the service can be better served through the use of technology and software. You’d be amazed at how some of these companies operate in 2022…. and still manage to make a tonne of money. + +Has anyone else followed a similar strategy? +Dear all, + +I am not sure that my post fits into this sub. If not, please let me know, which sub fits better. + +I (44, NW 15 Mio EUR, Annual income 300 K EUR, SVP, Germany) have now used Covid to optimize work life balance. I negotiated that I will work from home forever. Ok, I could fire now, but my colleagues are fun. + +Consequently, I have gained total freedom, as nobody can see how much I work, only results count. Luckily, I have to put in less hours than my colleagues to get the same result. I work 30 hours per week now to spent the rest of my time with my 2 yo son and my wife. + +For political reasons however, I need to maintain the image of the hard working corporate soldier. Our corporate culture is a bit outdated. + +I do that by sending pre written emails quite late and quite early, intentionally. Do you have any other advice how to convince the world that I put in many many hours? + +Input would be appreciated. + +Thank you very much. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Wow, I did not expect tso many reactions. Thanks for the award and all the positive thoughts. + +Below a selection of my favorites: + + + +\*Scheduled emails and „telephone calls“,meetings at the :15 and :45 time periods at slightly (though not crazy) off hours + +\*Appear busy -- have a booked calendar always and don't be immediately available to meet + +\*Be stoic or unhappy most of the time; The correct answers to "how are you doing?" are "busy" or "very busy" + +\*Reach out to lots of different people in your organization for simple, small projects. Easy wins that get your name out there. + +\*Always take your vacation during busy times. When the rest of the company is on vacation you're "working hard” on "some project" (nothing) + +\*Be responsive but not too responsive + +\*Buy a mouse jiggler + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; +No offense to everyone’s progress in becoming dividend investors, but I feel like everyone just posting their goals should be akin to the low effort subreddit rule. In the end, everyone can just take a screenshot of the app they currently use to track dividends and be like “Wooo hooo I made X amount this month! First goal down, now going for 5X amount!” + +It should have some substance or something interesting that propagates the community to comment on your strategy or some level of discussion. The only discussion in the comments seems to be just the same comments every time: “Nice job! What app do you use?” or “Cool, what shares are you holding?” or “Keep it up you’ll get there!” I love that we are very supportive here and there’s no negativity, but we could be doing this until the cows come home and no one is going to be any better/wiser from those posts. + +So please could we add a little more depth, insight, advice, bad/good ideas in our posts here? Most, if not all, of the current top posts are dividend goals with no substance. +Almost everything seems to be getting more expensive, to name a few: College, Healthcare, Housing and more niche markets like boats and airplanes. + +But wages are not going up very much. + +This doesn't seem to be sustainable. People can't even afford to have kids, much less buy a house. + +Why are all these things so expensive now? Why aren't wages going up? It's easy to blame the ceo's or whatever but if a ceo makes say a few million a year and employs 10,000 people (these are completely random numbers) that's only a few hundred per person which doesn't affect anything really. + +So where is the money going? I really don't understand. And how can this be fixed? Will it ever be fixed? Wages can't magically double, triple, or quadruple. But the costs of these things can't plummet either because that would cause a crash of the economy (particularly housing like in 2008).