diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_50.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_50.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_50.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +[highlight added](https://preview.redd.it/4bmg1crv5hw71.png?width=1168&format=png&auto=webp&s=233ed7b0c9ed1088afafdb2cf9affc9aa1a5a5bd) + +Looking at core inflation rates, the USA is starting to see annualized rates that haven’t been seen for 20 years. Interestingly, when looking at the CPI of all goods for the last 70 years, the trajectory of consumer prices has been strikingly consistent and almost exclusively upward since the USD was decoupled from gold and the world went to a fiat standard. The inflation of the 70s, during “The Great Inflation” period, didn’t really abate all that much. If anything, people just got used to prices going up on a regular basis. And what may have seemed like an enormous deflationary period during the GFC, was just a blip on the radar. + +**Historical Gold Price** + +Gold price during this time has tended to follow a similar trend upward, though not in a linear fashion. Prior to 1971, gold had a fixed price in USD. The United States had made a commitment to the world that guaranteed that holders of USD could redeem them in gold at the US Treasury. This is what gave many other central banks the confidence to safe-guard their gold reserves with Federal Reserve in America, and hold USD as essentially an IOU. + +&#x200B; + +[highlight added](https://preview.redd.it/mtzqey606hw71.png?width=1734&format=png&auto=webp&s=30975d2c23bdc95351a31be42c8fc47a7eeae185) + +For a long time, this worked and kept the value of dollars quite stable. However, by the 1960s the Fed had started printing money, using an expansionary monetary policy to spur economic growth. It worked for a decade or two, and times were good. But one issue was the fact that many banks realized that the dollar wasn’t worth the fixed gold redemption rate, and started recalling their reserves. It was an arbitrage opportunity created by the Fed’s easy money policies. + +This all culminated in President Nixon closing the ‘gold window’ in 1971. In other words, America announced it would no longer honour gold redemptions, effectively making the dollar a purely fiat mechanism. The fallout was the 70s. Inflation ran into the teens for almost 2 decades, before Paul Volcker put an end to it with massive interest rate hikes that tightened the monetary supply and ultimately restored faith in USD. What they didn’t do was link USD with gold again. With the gold price decoupled, we can see the price progression in the 50 years since. + +While expansionary monetary policies do not necessarily translate into dramatic spikes in the CPI, the link between fiat money printing and inflation seems to be quite strong. Prior to that, under a gold standard, the USD did fluctuate a bit, especially when new dollars were printed (e.g. during the American Civil War), but it tended to revert back to the mean. What a dollar could purchase at the start of the 19th century was about the same as what it could purchase 100 years later. + +The previous price stability I think can be solidly attributed to its anchor in gold. It was something objective that would naturally pull the dollar, more importantly monetary policy, back into line. On the contrary, under fiat standards, money is anchored to nothing but the hollow promises of central banks. Say what you will, the fact is that all fiat is only worth a fraction of what it was worth prior to the break. + +**Scam Dream?** + +&#x200B; + +[Expansion insurance???](https://preview.redd.it/uyovm04a6hw71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=accd98fb10e769f027c273038039c5da97c6bdf8) + +Though, in light of there being no clear correlation between gold price and CPI, many would argue that gold is not a good hedge for inflation. And they are absolutely correct, at least on a short-term basis. Often and for long periods in gold’s history, it has been steadily depreciating asset. One of the worst of these periods was from 1980 to 2000, where gold lost 80% of its buying power. + +Though, perhaps more strikingly when looked over a longer time frame, gold has appreciated from $35 in 1970 to $1800 now in 2021, which is approximately 5000%. It didn’t appreciate gradually in that time frame, but it appreciated nonetheless. Rather, gold’s price appreciation since 1970 has tended have come from sudden and extremely quick rises, usually coinciding with major economic crises that threatens the ultimate value of fiat. + +**Game Theory & Markets** + +On top of that, there are layers and layers of market sentiment that are built up on the foundations of asset fundamentals, which is reflected in the market price. It’s interesting to explore this concept a bit further, but I’ll spare the reader here. See [What Level of Investor am I???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/qf6viv/what_level_of_investor_am_i/) for more. + +When it comes to gold, it is no exception, and in fact is probably an perfect exemplar of the dynamic. Gold isn’t merely an asset with a fundamental intrinsic value relative to the value of fiat, it is perhaps much more than that, a manifestation of the commodity of fear itself. + +&#x200B; + +[Quick, buy shiny things!](https://preview.redd.it/2tl24p8h6hw71.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6964c419d876e24abdaa15303a576b664663293) + +Gold’s usefulness as a commodity for industrial purposes is minor. It does not turnover in the kind of volumes that that other commodities might. Therefore, gold’s price sensitivity to movements in fiat during a strong economy is quite low. The market simply does not trade it enough for it to realise its intrinsic value during those times. + +In fact, part of what makes it a good store of value is because of the fact that it does not trade often, so is much less subject to the whims of supply and demand curves. It is not insignificant also that it is rare, malleable, and indestructible, which make it an ideal material for coinage and jewellery. Perhaps no small part that it was able to establish itself early on as currency. For 5000+ years in fact, gold has considered to have intrinsic value as a result of its qualities. That long history in its own right, entrenches gold’s value. + +So, when investors fear market crashes or fiat losing value, gold is turned to as a safe haven. It’s at these times gold experiences violent corrections to the upside. This can be seen as circumstances forcing the market to finally trade gold in volume, and therefore cause it to rerate. Following these periods, gold has gone through cooling periods where people divest from it to put their money to work into other more productive assets . But the crucial point here is that gold tends to establish a new base pricing level afterwards. It in its history, it has never truly reverted to the previous price points. This is a reflection of the inflation of fiat. + +Because of these reasons, it is difficult to nail down what it’s underlying intrinsic value might be at any one point in time. As a finite resource, gold could in theory be divided equally amongst all of the fiat dollars in the world, and thus establishing a theoretical value. While this doesn't reflect spot, looking at it this way makes it quite clear and objective. Under this sort of method, the ratio of M0 to gold price is actually at the lowest relative price it has ever been. Amazingly, not because the actual price is low, but because the monetary supply has been increased so enormously. + +**Money Seeking Yield** + +Ultimately, investment is about seeking the best return on the value for one’s money. Gold doesn’t operate in a vacuum, and is just one of many assets that can be used to achieve this end. As compared to putting one’s money into equities, gold has largely underperformed for the last 25 years. So as a means to aggressively grow one’s wealth, it it’s far from the best option. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jwkkhj2j6hw71.png?width=1300&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfaf29ac94f9a47b068780412378a7506b6583b1 + +This makes sense, since gold is not a productive asset. It doesn’t produce any more value intrinsically than it had when it was bought. Any loss or gain is purely on the ever-changing market sentiments regarding both gold and fiat. + +Alternatively, by owning equities, an investor owns an asset that produces cashflows on a yearly basis. Indeed, those cashflows might also increase over time as the business grows. The accretive potential of a business is theoretically infinite. But even if we are looking at stagnant blue-chip companies, those cash-flows accrue, and ownership of the portion of the cash-flow (the yield) has a worth, in relation to the going market rate. + +**Investment Hurdle Rate** + +That market rate largely being based on treasury yields. Government bonds have long been considered extremely safe stores of value. The risk of of a first world government going bankrupt has been low. Therefore, the idea that a 10-year or even a 30-year treasury bond would ultimately pay out on its maturity date has rarely been questioned. + +As such bonds have long been the go-to hedge for the inherent risk in stocks. The 60-40 equities to bonds portfolio have been a standard in the investment industry for decades. Bonds have enjoyed their position in large part because of their locked in interest rate return in conjunction to their otherwise safe aspects. As such, bonds have been the classic alternative to gold, as a store of value that doesn’t necessarily sacrifice yield. That yield in turn has become a threshold hurdle rate for other investments. + +**40-Year Bull Market** + +Bonds in the early 1980s would give the buyer a 15% rate of return. This high interest rate also tightened the monetary supply and cooled inflation, so tended to be very accretive for the investor even when inflation was considered. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/un3r88el6hw71.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=98bd2ece6b576cc6ebe7f83204ba396250a5bbc8 + +Furthermore, as central banks reduced interest rates, older bonds with higher yields became worth more to the holder, and as such yielded capital gains equivalent to the difference. In other words, if a bond was bought originally for $100 @ 10% yield and had not yet come to maturity, it would find a new equilibrium in the market at a much higher capital cost (i.e. $200) to trade that bond, essentially matching newly issued $100 bonds but with a lower 5% yield. + +The 15% peak of bond yields in the 1980s has cascaded down in the form of capital gains for bond holders over the last 40 years, as interest rates have steadily dropped. The long-term benefits of those high interest rates have been present in the bond market long after the interest rates were lowered. + +**Gold vs Real Yield** + +Consider then that if gold only holds a certain intrinsic value, and that its price will in the long run revert to that intrinsic value regardless of transitory market sentiments, then it follows that gold’s effective real yield rate is 0%. No surprise then that over its history, gold has tended have a close relationship with treasury real yield rates. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bj2y8abu6hw71.png?width=1229&format=png&auto=webp&s=129cc4c998729f468c2f70a3563d731198fe03f7 + +Investors would be considering that fact when choosing between investment options. Most want to achieve the best yield they can, and would prefer to grow their purchasing power rather than merely preserve it. When choosing between different assets, their real yield, even if it is only implicitly, is a major consideration. Therefore, gold hasn’t made much sense as an investment for the last several decades, in which bonds have been riding a wave of high yield. But as a market of persistent low interest rates settles in, the relative benefit wanes. + +# The Verdict + +Ultimately, whether RRL is a good investment or not, really depends on whether one is bullish or bearish on gold. And it’s worth noting that bullish in this case can mean gold more or less sustaining its current levels. At the current gold price, RRL is making good money and positioned to establish itself in future as a top tier 500koz+ producer. Under the current circumstances macro-economically, with central banks printing money like… well… it’s paper (money does grow from trees, mom!), perhaps a position in a profitable gold miner isn’t too bad as a hedge for inflation. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jh3qp29w6hw71.png?width=1249&format=png&auto=webp&s=50a26cbdf984e0e26e6c57fa7f7fa994d3796e6c + +The risk here is that we experience another 20-year period like 1980 and 2000, when gold lost 80% of its purchasing value. However, one difference between now and then is that we’ve since come to the end of a 40-year bull market in bonds; the latter being historically gold’s biggest competitor in defensive investment assets. Throughout most of the 80s and 90s, bonds were coming off a peak of 10-15% yields. As such, they had nominal yields significantly higher than inflation and thus gained real purchasing power for the investor over time. This made holding gold come at a significant opportunity cost vs bonds. + +To the contrary, since the GFC and the start of major quantitative easing efforts on the part of central banks globally, interest rates have struggled to break even with inflation. And for the last 10 years, even with 0% real yield, bonds still made more sense as a defensive asset, as their marginal yields still safer than gold, since its price is more subject to sentiment. However, with nominal interest rates now sitting near 0% and the core inflation rate climbing to over 5%, real yields are dipping significantly into the negative. + +&#x200B; + +[According to the trimmed mean figures, hedge is not inflation.](https://preview.redd.it/885a8flx6hw71.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfbd71400aa08c445b8e17919e250b50a85c331b) + +These are levels not seen in the USA since the 70s. Further still, in contrast to those times when central banks raised interest rates to eye-watering levels to combat the problem, the Fed and RBA so far have been only talking about slowing down the easing, and have yet to raise interest rates. Holding an asset with a negative return of -5% would cause an investor to lose half their purchasing power in about 15 years. Should circumstances like these persist, then perhaps gold is the superior defensive asset again, as a long-term real yield of 0% becomes more and more appealing. + +# The Target + +Let’s put all of these heavy questions aside and merely ask ourselves a simple question. If we didn’t know what RRL produced exactly, but only that it was a commodity miner and were merely looking it its financial figures, is it a good business? And if so, what is it worth? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/g8jdhn377hw71.png?width=1069&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d848b00f28cc971e943be9f97aeb84c42541b99 + +As far as that goes, RRL looks pretty good on paper. The only glaring red-flag being the capital raise for the Tropicana acquisition in FY21, and perhaps that the management hold a very small overall share of the company. So the question really lays squarely on FY22. Fair comparison of the effect of the acquisition, the difference between FY20 and FY22 is actually more relevant, since Tropicana had only 2 months’ worth of contribution to the FY21 overall figures. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qjltiys87hw71.png?width=1149&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa54f242a9e3fb09d70d8c91369616b11ffbb652 + +For this, I think a breakdown of projected earnings and profit levels based on an expected average commodity price (similar with what I did for FMG) is the best approach. + +Considerations: + +* USD to AUD exchange rate: 75cents seems reasonable peg for FY22. +* Production Volume: hedging against management, I’ve gone with the lowest guidance level. +* AISC: similarly, I’ve gone with the highest guidance level. +* Hedging: 100koz will be delivered into the hedge @ $1571 for the next 3 years. +* Highlights: ‘Similar FY21’ indicates gold price avg required to achieve similar revenue & NPAT. +* Multiples: I’ve chosen to run conservative EPS multiples for intrinsic prices. + +Interestingly, at the current spot price RRL should produce an EPS quite similar to where they were in FY19, when they traded for >$5. With sustained prices, Tropicana appears to be break-even, and should gold prices increase, it will be a major benefit. Also of note, at the current trading levels of around $2 flat, RRL is being valued as though gold will drop to $1200, it’s 10-year low. + +Like many other major goldies right now, RRL is hitting new recent lows in their price. It makes a lot of sense when we consider game theory and the market. The smart money likely expects for gold to cool off from its peak in 2020 and return to a historical trading range. It is reasonable to expect this as economic conditions strengthen. In good times the pool of investment cash would naturally flow into assets with higher yields. + +This may especially be true if the smart money thinks that central banks will change course, taper quantitative easing, raise the interest rates, and insofar tighten monetary policy. This would theoretically strengthen fiat dollars, and conversely be a detriment to unproductive assets like gold. + +That being said, RRL would seem to be trading at such a low level as to have already factored in this sort of downside. Picking it up at a margin of safety might be prudent to hedge against further capital raisings and unexpected problems, but I think there is a lot of potential for up-side. + +# The TL;DR + +Regis Resources is Australian gold miner with minesites in WA, and a development project in NSW. Originally founded and listed in the mid-1980s, the company has quite a bit of history on the ASX. It traded for many years under the name of Johnson’s Well Mining (JWM), and was just a specie penny gold miner for most of its history. + +Only after many years hard yakka with countless capital raises and ultimately a major restructuring, the miner under the new banner of Regis finally started turning a profit in 2011, 25-years after its original listing. Since then, it has established itself as one of the most reliable gold producers on the exchange, and at one point was among the top 3 largest Australian goldies by market cap. + +More recently, Regis has had its fair share of headwinds. Weakness in its share price started as early as 2019. Shareholders questioning the thinking behind the legacy hedges and the delays with the NSW project. They were non-plussed about cutting the previously reliable dividend and blindsided by a major capital raise and acquisition last year. As a result, Regis has had a harsh fall from its highs, and is now trading at a 5-year low despite gold spot being near its all-time-highs. + +It's no consolation for investors holding the bag, but in my opinion it looks like a pretty excellent pick-up for new investors. A confluence of unfortunate events has led to this stonk trading at a price level with seemingly little downside. The primary risk is management somehow ham-fist their way into screwing it up further (I should hope that they buy in with gusto and share in the pain!). Otherwise, there seems to be a whole lot of up-side should gold hold near its present price level. It could be quite a decent hedge position should the macroeconomic environment start to favour gold in the long term. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on RRL and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*On Deck Next Fortnight: MFG* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (no particular order): CGF, IPL, Z1P, RFG, AZJ, FLT, QAN, CWN, FNP.* + +*Previous Editions of Catching the Knife:* + +1. [The Second Australian Company (AGL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ms53c0/catching_the_knife_the_second_australian_company/) +2. [The Daigou Milk Company (A2M)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mxf4xu/catching_the_knife_the_daigou_milk_company_a2m/) +3. [The Largest Australian Energy Company (ORG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n1va2b/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_energy/) +4. [Amazon’s Bogan Australian Cousin (KGN)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n7cpxk/catching_the_knife_amazons_bogan_australian/) +5. [Putting the Autistic Individual in AI (APX)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ncm2on/catching_the_knife_putting_the_autistic/) +6. [The Australian Telecom Company (TLS)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ni771f/catching_the_knife_the_australian_telecom_company/) +7. [The Company Formerly Known as an Insurance Co (AMP)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/nmvp0v/catching_the_knife_the_company_formerly_known_as/) +8. [The Largest Australian Salmon Farmer (TGR)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ns2qb5/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_salmon/) +9. [The Largest Australian IPO of 2020 (NXL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/nxc84d/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_ipo_of/) +10. [Could this Stonk be the Next Telstra? (TPG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/o2mhq8/catching_the_knife_could_this_stonk_be_the_next/) +11. [One of the Largest Australian Shipbuilders (ASB)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/o87y9n/catching_the_knife_one_of_the_largest_australian/) +12. [The Etsy of Australia (RBL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ohc04b/catching_the_knife_the_etsy_of_australia_rbl/) +13. [Your Mother’s Favourite Stonk (MYR)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/om2aho/catching_the_knife_your_mothers_favorite_stonk_myr/) +14. [A Contractor for the Largest Infrastructure Cos. in Australia (SSM)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/oqknk5/catching_the_knife_a_contractor_for_the_largest/) +15. [Murphy’s Favourite Oil&Gas Driller (COE)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ozkfd8/catching_the_knife_murphys_favorite_oilgas/) +16. [One of the Largest Australian Law Firms (SGH)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/p8i9ui/catching_the_knife_one_of_the_largest_australian/) +17. [One of Australia’s Largest Media Companies (SXL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/phky1p/catching_the_knife_one_of_australias_largest/) +18. [The ASX 200 Nano-Cap Construction Co. (DCG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/pqeyh0/catching_the_knife_the_asx_200_nanocap/) +19. [The 4th Largest Iron Ore Producer in the World (FMG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/pzncjg/catching_the_knife_the_4th_largest_iron_ore/) +20. [Two of the Largest Retail REITs on the ASX (SCG & URW)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/q94xui/catching_the_knife_two_of_the_largest_retail/) +This must be a record for any ETF. The net inflow into $ARKK was $1.6B in just one week of TSLA's SP500 inclusion which amounts to 10.1% week-over-week growth!! + +Am I reading this data right? +[https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/notable-etf-inflow-detected-arkk-2020-12-23](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/notable-etf-inflow-detected-arkk-2020-12-23) + +Inflow/Outflow of funds into/out of ETF is not expected to affect the prices of underlying stocks due to the ETF creation/deletion structure. However, given the size of inflow, some underlying movement cannot be ruled out. + + +* House Democrats just teed up a potential vote next week on a congressional stock trading ban. +* Top Democrats told colleagues that the legislation will most likely include Supreme Court justices. +* That inclusion — along with the short time members will have to consider the bill — may signal peril. + +House Democratic leaders announced that the chamber may consider legislation to ban members of Congress from trading stocks as soon as next week. + +Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York — the chair of the Democratic caucus — announced on the House floor on Thursday afternoon that the body "may consider legislation to reform the STOCK Act." + +House Speaker Nancy Pelosi previously indicated that a bill could come in September. + +In a "Dear Colleague" letter sent on Thursday and obtained by Insider, Democratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California, the chair of the Committee on House Administration, released a framework entitled "Combatting Financial Conflicts of Interest and Restoring Public Faith and Trust in Government." + +"Across the entire federal government, there have been significant stories regarding financial conflicts of interest in relation to stock trading and ownership," Lofgren wrote. "Collectively, these stories undermine the American people's faith and trust in the integrity of public officials and our federal government." + +The framework includes much of what prominent advocates of stock-ban legislation have asked for, such as including spouses and dependent children in any potential ban. + +Other framework provisions call for: + +* Mandatory electronic filing of financial disclosures, as some officials submit all-but-illegible disclosures. +* Requiring "more granularity" when disclosing financial trades. Currently, lawmakers are only required to disclosure the values of their trades in broad ranges, such as $100,000 to $250,000 or $1 million to $5 million. +* A ban on senior government officials, including members of Congress and their immediate families, from trading cryptocurrencies. + +Lofgren's framework also includes one class of government official alongside members of Congress — Supreme Court justices. It's a move that advocates view as a potential "poison pill" meant to ensure the legislation is unable to pass the Senate. + +Full article: [https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-ban-congress-us-house-lawmakers-trading-investing-2022-9](https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-ban-congress-us-house-lawmakers-trading-investing-2022-9) + +House Democrats have released a framework for legislation to ban members of Congress from trading stocks, with a possible vote on the ban next week. Several members of congress have recently been in the spotlight for possible insider trading. + +Do you think the ban will be passed? +I remember Paul Krugman saying that pre tax and benefits, the level of inequality in Scandinavian countries is similar to the USA. I cannot find any data to support this claim. Is this true? +I'm 26, on my way to Fatfire by early 40s. I have spent last 4 years working 65-70 hours each week. And then handling my personal life admin tasks 5-6 hours a week. (grocery shopping, bill payments, doctor visits, etc) + +Recently, a friend of family (who was my inspiration for fatfire) died suddenly at a young age. This was shocking and a huge blow. It also made me wonder about actually living my life. As this woman was on path to get fatfire by late 50's (started late) and had kept her entire life on hold to live after her retirement. + +Once I started looking at life from this perspective, I found following problems- + +1. At the moment, I have not life out of my work. +2. I have no friends, no hobbies. ( the few friends I had are estranged now due to lifestyle differences) +3. I'm greatly out of shape. +4. I have made no progress towards finding a partner. (which is an important goal for me.) + +My solution to this was hiring a PA for part time (4 hours each day) . (which is slightly out of my price range, but I can adjust that at the moment) I'm looking for candidates now and will find one by end of Month. + +Problem is a- I don't think I have enough tasks to give her.. because I'm not sure what exactly should be done to have a life now while also striving for my fatfire.... + +Any advice about how you have achieved this is greatly appreciated. +There is a prevailing mis-understanding among people fresh to the market that you can buy and sell as much as you want at the "market price." This is false. You are buying and selling from real people or algorithms that believe they can scalp your order. The idealized scenario is that GME rallies, Melvin covers, and everyone at reddit gets out at the top. This represents a misunderstanding of market mechanics. Melvin will cover before we truly know it, and the crash will happen as quick as the rally. + +So with recent events, you must ask yourself: + +# Who is Your Counterparty? + +Nothing is a sure bet. How confident are you that your counterparty is who you think it is? Thousands of redditors & new traders beyond have been buying stocks fully confident that Melvin Capital hasn't exited their trade. This is also supported by some analysis provided by two different firms, although their estimates differ some amount. Confounded in this is the interpretation of the data: Does this include market makers and dealers that are short stock but covered with calls or options deltas? Is their information fully accurate in an event the likes of which has never happened? It's tough to know for sure. + +# Know Everyone's Hand + +Your guess on *how much they've covered* and *when they covered* has a massive effect on how you perceive the value of this trade. Buying if you think Melvin has $10b notional to cover is a much better bet than if they only have $2b to cover. You also have to consider how much notional the rest of the market has bought in anticipation of a squeeze. The difference between the two represents your effective edge. + +Remember, we don't *actually* know Melvin's current position. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. We only know the hand they're showing us via media. Has their clearing firm taken over? Has a much bigger collection of firms absorbed the position? Have they been buying since Monday? Have they covered and have new funds entered the space at a much better level? + +You are fighting Goliath at a poker table in the city of Gath. The pot is worth $25 billion dollars. Ken Griffin has *never* lost. Melvin's prime brokers Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche are not used to losing (well, Deutsche is). They will do whatever it takes to take the pot *from you* and leave you holding the bag. They will not blink twice because there is a *lot* of *fucking money* on the line. + +# Know What Can Go Wrong + +Nobody could have guessed everything that happened this week. Prepare yourself for the unexpected. Your brokerage will undoubtedly close out your position at the worst possible time. The stock could be halted for days. You could be assigned on ITM options. Your stock could get delisted. Your stock may get diluted. + +# Only Spend What You're Willing to Lose + +This one is self explanatory. Your investment could go to zero. Even if you think you make money on every trade, if your bet size is 100%, the long term value of your portfolio is **zero*****.*** + +# Don't Take Out Loans on Emotional Capital + +If you are new, you really don't know the gut-wrenching, stomach-turning feeling of seeing the possibility of your net liquidity hitting zero or negative. It fucking sucks. You just know the highs. You're buying along the speculative frenzy and frantic rallies, wrapped in anti-billionaire & pro-underdog themes. It may even feel good to think that a guy who cut his teeth at a firm notorious for an insider trading scandal is getting his comeuppance. We love the feeling. **If you are fully invested financially & emotionally, you are completely overleveraged and will pay the price.** Make feeling good your goal, and set limits that you can stomach. + +There are several feel-good stories of people making life-changing money to pay off their student loans or their family members' surgeries. Please think twice about this, and only spend what you can afford to lose. If placing a bet makes the difference between your pet living or dying, you may have a gambling problem. These were success stories because they got in at a much better level and could have had a much sadder ending. + +Secondly, don't take it personal. There are people on the other side of your trades, your brokerage support line, the subreddit, the media. They are all playing their own hand to the best of their knowledge. It's easy to blame a broker, yell at their support desk, hate-tweet at a company, or even rage-text that guy you know who develops APIs at ETrade. A lot of people across the industry are *rooting* for you. Fuck, even Ted Cruz and AOC are *rooting* for you, because this transcends politics. If you're mad at Melvin Capital or Ken Griffin or the guys who crashed the economy in 2008, keep it that way. They will try and misdirect your anger in every single direction: brokerages, the media, and reddit. If your enemies are a few guys at the top holding a $25b short position and moving levers, keep it that way. + +Thirdly, if you don't want to be a human being for the sake of the person on the other side, be a human being for your wallet's sake. You make better financial decisions in the absence of emotions. +Hey All! + +I'm a 27 years old university student from Hungary, my current income is about 300 EUR/month, and it will be like this for at least 2 more years, so I can invest maybe 90 EUR/month. Is it possible to increase my monthly income to 1500-1700 EUR or even more? +I am fortunate enough to get my living costs paid by my parents, but I want to stand on my own feet, and help Them instead. + +I am an absolute beginner in investing, zero knowledge. My question is where should I start? + +I'm willing to learn everything from the basics but I don't know what to trust(books, YouTube videos, applications?) What are my possibilities in Europe? +Thank You in advance! +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/x0t9r7a0cl771.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d0567a2574ccbf85289c29c5a3e8c140df501c7 + +*This is one of a series of posts where I will apply my fast and dirty historical fundamental analysis to some of the biggest dogshit stocks of 2021. If you are interested in the process I use below to evaluate a stock, check out* [How Do I Buy A Stonk???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lzjpvf/how_do_i_buy_a_stock/) + +# The Business + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nkn2ya1wpk771.png?width=2021&format=png&auto=webp&s=30cd6c17cdf05c5edaf81067c5a313afacdd7aa2 + +Austral is an Australian shipbuilding company that was founded in Perth in 1988. They’ve become a prime contractor in the defence industry, designing and constructing military vessels, most notably for the United States Navy. In addition, they also produce high-speed ferries and speciality utility vessels. + +&#x200B; + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/kedd572xpk771.png?width=1974&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e261168eb4449e56fb2cc3c07d1c4059c595a5e) + +Over their 33 year history, Austal has produced over 260 vessels for naval and commercial use around the world. At their largest, they employed close to 7k people across 6 shipyards and 8 service facilities in 5 different countries. + +# The Checklist + +* Net Profit: positive 9 of last 10 years. Good ✅ +* Outstanding Shares: stable since capital raise in 2013. Good ✅ +* Revenue, Profit, & Equity: steadily growing L10Y. Good ✅ +* Insider Ownership: 13.5% w/ on market buying at this level. Good ✅ +* Debt / Equity: 28.5% w/ Current Ratio of 2.1x. Good ✅ +* ROE: 3.8% Avg L10Y w/ 11.9% FY20. Neutral ⚪ +* Dividend: 1.8% L10Y Avg Yield w/ 3.9% FY20. Neutral ⚪ +* BPS $2.01 (1x P/B) w/ NTA $1.90 (1.1x P/NTA). Good ✅ +* 10Y Avg: SPS $3.49 (0.6x P/S), EPS 8cents (25.7x P/E). Neutral ⚪ +* Growth: +18% Avg Revenue Growth L10Y w/ 12.7% FY20. Good ✅ + +**Fair Value: $3.31** + +**Target Buy: $1.78** + +It's worth noting that the average dividend yield is quite low in large part due to ASB not paying a dividend for 3 years (2012-2014). Therefore, overall the yield could be considered good depending on your outlook. + +# The Knife + +[marketindex.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/5jeevjliqk771.png?width=1220&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94583eaaa730ad116fe52de38bf9101a5a61906) + +ASB has been steadily growing their business over the years. In FY20 they had crested 2 billion in annual revenue, having grown almost 13% over their FY19 result. Interestingly enough, it was a year before that in 2019 when their share price actually peaked. + +At the end of Sept 2019, ASB was trading well over $4 per share and had a market cap of about $1.5billion. It had been added to the ASX 200 index just a couple of months prior. However, even though they continued to grow their business the following year, the market had already soured on ASB. By June of 2021, they were removed from the ASX 200 list. + +Those that bought at ASB's all time high, as of the close of Friday (26/6/21) @ $2.06, would have lost more than half of their investment. Even those that bought ASB mid last year after the pandemic market crash, would be, only one 1 year later, down about a third of their investment. + +# The Diagnosis + +The Short Answer: This is volatility from a project oriented stock that has had a drought of new contracts. + +The Long Answer: Austal’s future growth slowed in FY20 and it is forecast to shrink significantly in FY21. There are reasons to believe this slowdown of ship building projects will persist for at least the next few years. + +Building large vessels takes quite a bit of time, so at any one point ASB might have dozens of ships under construction or booked in for future builds at a later date. Ideally, as ships are completed, new orders are received so that they can keep a constant stream of work flowing through their shipyards. In addition to building ships, ASB also maintains their previously built naval vessels (sustainment), which is worth noting as a growing portion of their revenue base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qzpawy1lqk771.png?width=853&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf2baa0c09304fe460038a2e6160a4b73152fbcc + +It becomes somewhat clear when reviewing the last few years of operations, the position ASB is in with an order book that topped out in FY19 and has been trending downward ever since. Their recent 1H21 made no mention in the snap-shot of operational figures of any new builds being added to the roster. It's absence in the run down that's been provided since the FY18 reports was conspicuous. + +&#x200B; + +[I think we're making progress, boys.](https://preview.redd.it/ito7glfoqk771.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e4cb225302b3289e967118a1af2216d24203f93) + +ASB’s order book, that had swelled to over 4billion in 2020, is now back to where it was in 2018. There is a concerning lull in new contracts, with ASB missing out on winning some key tenders recently. Quite simply, they are running out of work. Some good news came in the last few weeks, with the announcements that ASB has been awarded a couple of contracts for the USA Navy worth approximately A$360m combined. While that certainly helps, they’ll need several more of those in order to keep pace with the the high revenue and earnings benchmarks they set for themselves in 2019 and 2020. + +**USA Navy Budgets** + +But about that... there is a slight problem… + +&#x200B; + +[US Naval Institute News \(usni.org\)](https://preview.redd.it/j0l2mp6rqk771.png?width=944&format=png&auto=webp&s=8047bec25ad2b07ab47fe57728228ed8baea4cd9) + +Despite several trillion dollars being thrown around in fiscal stimulus in the USA since the pandemic started in 2020, not much of that has gone towards their military. A Chief Naval Operations officer told the House Armed Service Committee of the United States Congress, that unless the government increases the Navy's top-line budgetary figure, “the size of our fleet will definitely shrink.” + +Historically, Democrat administrations have been lukewarm to the idea of giving the military even more funding. Indeed, cutbacks and spending freezes are much more commonplace under their guidance. With the Biden administration now steering the proverbial ship in the USA, it’s reasonable to expect that the Navy will have to tighten their belts. + +&#x200B; + +[Generated with FY20 Segment Figures](https://preview.redd.it/llz69fbxqk771.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=99a6198225681b2df453f3251ef6cfd9ba102649) + +This is not so good for ASB. The lions share of their revenue comes from USA. Knowing this, then it comes as less of a surprise that the 1H21 report showed a 19% decrease in revenue, most of which appeared to be coming straight off the USA’s segment. The most recent earnings update downgraded their outlook for FY21 to be likely to only achieve about 70% of the revenue that they did in FY20 ($1.55b, down from $2.08b). The deterioration of their 2nd half earnings would ostensibly have further negative implications on their FY22 outlook, with revenue perhaps likely to fall as low as 2016-2017 levels. + +# The Outlook + +The future isn’t all negative though. Currently the ships that Austal produce in their shipyard in Mobile, Alabama USA are made with aluminium hulls. Recent reports from the Navy indicate that the USA want to transition some of the fleet to steel hulls. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4ctew401rk771.png?width=865&format=png&auto=webp&s=301203781134647f5981771b7cbe28099ae5ab48 + +There are a few advantages to steel. For one it's a cheaper material. It also is generally stronger and more durable (longer service life) than aluminium. The trade-off is weight. Aluminium still has its place within the fleet, the lighter hulls allow for higher payloads (and thus perhaps optionality on different weapons platforms). But the times are changing. + +**Shipyard Expansion** + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/4c0abl34rk771.png?width=1386&format=png&auto=webp&s=e360f5f279dcec848fd48947987bc03b7b23ff37) + +Fortunately, ASB has shown itself to be very forward looking. It is progressing with plans it announced in 2018 to expand their American shipyard to allow them the capabilities of building steel ships in the future. The expansion is likely to be completed in late 2021. + +&#x200B; + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/tdawb9f8rk771.png?width=1382&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6ae91ef09c22e4d92f0a058c04a075903f124d2) + +In their FY20 report, ASB highlighted that the added capabilities would triple the potential pool of project work it could bid for. It estimates that over the course of the next 4 years, there is approximately 8 billion in projects that would be available for tender. So while their current pool of projects might be diminishing, they will have a larger basket of potential projects that they will be able to supply, and so they can expand their market share in the industry as a means of offsetting the downturn in demand. + +**Australia Ramping Up?** + +https://preview.redd.it/vjro9jvark771.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a2c3084875b0fb6f48012edf11d0e4f651aa090 + +Further to that, recent Force Structure Plan reports have indicated a potential ramp up in shipbuilding in Australia. The Aussie Navy is lobbying to spend upwards of 300million a year for the next 15 years. The more recent geopolitical strife between Australia and China perhaps puts some emphasis on these plans coming to fruition. There has certainly been a renewed focus by government on Australia's military capabilities in the recent months. As one of the major Australian shipbuilders with significant dealings already with the Department of Defence already, ASB would be well positioned to benefit. + +**Sustainment Revenues** + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/l9mw26mgrk771.png?width=1399&format=png&auto=webp&s=0175578a19b4a9932301a7c0592b5ab82d97674f) + +Furthermore, the many years that Austal has spent within the industry may also buffer it from a dramatic fall in its yearly revenue. As it puts more and more ships into service, those ships then require sustainment with regular maintenance and repairs over their service life. ASB projects that the current $360m worth of sustainment revenue in FY20 will grow over time to $500m. This source of revenue is good in that it would provide relief from the more volitile project based business, and buffer them from future downturns in the industry. + +# The Verdict + +I think ASB is definitely hitting a rough patch in terms of its order book. And that might get worse over the next couple of years. However, they appear to be positioning themselves well to offset the lull in project work by expanding their capabilities into a larger pool of possible work and capturing more of the post-sale servicing. ASB still need to win a significant number of contracts to get to the kinds of levels that they enjoyed in 2019 and 2020, but I do not see the recent lull as a threat to them existentially. + +&#x200B; + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/9zykbzsirk771.png?width=1393&format=png&auto=webp&s=4884c022356bca80661a2c1cc32939e698ddd0e2) + +Indeed, ASB is in a pretty strong position on its balance sheet, with some substantial cash on hand. It’s also due to complete it’s the expansion of its USA shipyard to open up further opportunities. And so they appear to be positioning themselves very well to capitalize on larger opportunities in the future. + +&#x200B; + +[From FY20 Annual Report](https://preview.redd.it/lmqu2rtkrk771.png?width=1981&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccc53ac6244c0c6f1765a5af4a8be8159d05832c) + +Not only that, but they have a massive asset base backing their business. With 6 shipyards and 8 service centres, they currently have about $1.90 worth of net tangible assets per share (note: they announced selling their 40% stake in the Aulong shipyard, so in future it will be 5 yards, but this is still significant and the sale should otherwise improve their liquidity even more). + +ASB also have some important connections with the United States military, being one of only 5 major contractors to the Navy, and having supplied vessels and services there for the past 20 years. This is a bit of an intangible asset to them, which wouldn't really show up on the balance sheet even in that name. However, it's significant. These are relationships and clearances that are pretty difficult to establish, which gives ASB a significant degree of moat in their industry. + +As such, I think for the right price, ASB could be a solid defensive investment. 😺 + +# The Target + +The question becomes, what is a good price? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lvqw7qxqrk771.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=c88bdab9fd1f0351d7a9e1433b7c865ea79889a9 + +Given the latest developments putting a question mark on the revenue an earnings going forward, it may be useful to draw a line between the forecast and the last year with similar output. Luckily, there is both the 1H21 report and the earnings guidance announcement from 15th of June. Indications from ASB are that they should finish FY21 at 1.55b revenue and between 112-118 million earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Given how late in the financial year the update was, it’s fairly certain to be pretty close to the mark. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4j7w3nsrrk771.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=885b5774ecc1cc4199437c20ebc3043d0681c978 + +The main figures that cannot be easily inferred is the net profit after tax and any further changes in the balance sheet since 1H21. Though, using a similar ratio of EBIT to NPAT from the 1H21, we can estimate that the underlying net profit will be around $80m. This might be impacted by expansion spending, material costs, and exchange rate flucuations, but it's a decent figure to work with. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4rs8vpksrk771.png?width=862&format=png&auto=webp&s=01d9d627790aa4a3acc382bbfbc76ff6a3c70f20 + +From that information we establish approximate per share fundamentals. I think it’s useful to put into perspective the historical per share fundamentals for comparison, as the picture then looks much less dire. The business has been progressively improving its profitability over the years. In FY17 for example, their ROE was only 3.8%. Since then, they have improved their ROE to a respectable 11.9%. + +At this point, despite the SPS being close to 2018 levels, ASB's EPS looks like it might not be far off their FY20 levels. On the basis of the FY21 estimates, I would estimate ASB's fair value at around $5.00. + +However, given the nature of the stock and the uncertain future regarding project work, it would be prudent to use a very conservative approach to this falling knife to allow a sufficient margin of safety. This would allow for unknown factors like material costs and exchange rate fluctuations from impacting the valuation too heavily. + +Given the dramatic increases in commodity prices in the past few months, the company might be negatively exposed material costs. It's contracted builds often take years to realise. I would expect some hedging and CPI clauses, so it’s yet to be seen how heavily this will impact ASB, but I think there is an inherent risk in material shortages and cost blowouts. Their gross profit margin is quite low and the costs of sales when you factor out wages (i.e. material costs), appears to be around 60-70% of their revenue. + +Therefore, I think it's reasonable to discount the $80m estimate in earnings by $50m (which at the very least accounts for costs of the shipyard expansion). That gives ASB an estimated EPS closer to FY18 levels, which works nicely, as it is in line with the forecasted revenue. Should their profitability decrease again from external factors, we've allowed for a significant buffer to the valuation. From this, estimating divident using a roughly 40% payout and opting to use NTA would further hedge the valuation to the following: + +* SPS $4.31 +* EPS 13.8cents +* NTA $1.90 +* DPS 5cents + +With this I can provide the following fair and target prices: + +**Fair Price (FY21 Hedged) - $3.77** + +**Target Price (FY21 Hedged) - $1.98** + +Interestingly, this is where we are at currently with the share price. If one were more bearish on ASB, it's advisable to review the trading ranges between 2016 and 2017 as demonstrating a fairly substantial support level for ASB's price (or put in other ways, a potential bottom that this downtrend could take us). As such the target would be approximately $1.50. In light of material costs increasing and the potential for further silence regarding further projects, it's not unreasonable to think it could get this low. Though, one significant source of buoyancy above this level I imagine will be the net tangible assets of $1.90 per share (much higher than it was in those years). + +# The TL;DR + +Austal Ships is a decades old Australian shipbuilder. Since their founding in the late 1980s in Perth, they’ve grown to be in an exclusive group of ship-makers that supply the United States and Australian Navy. Over the course of their history they’ve produced hundreds of vessels for military and commercial purposes. + +At their height in 2019-2020 they had almost 60 ships in construction and contracted, with turnover of 2 billion in annual revenue. More recently Austal have had a drought of new contracts, with their order book slowly being completed and very little work being added to replace it. As it shapes up, they may return to the kind of volumes that they had in FY17-18, with military budgets in the USA possibly flatlining in the next few years. + +However, Austal have a growing base of passive revenue with ship sustainment work; an enormous amount of net tangible assets between their multiple shipyards and service centres; a strong balance sheet with a large net cash position; and excellent contacts in a difficult to enter industry. On top of that, they’ve positioned themselves with expanded capabilities in steel hull shipmaking to capture a larger pool of business; and there are hints that the Australian government might ramp up its investments in its Navy. + +I think at these price levels, it would be reasonable to take a punt on Austal, but with mindfulness that the share could return to its 2018 levels (\~$1.50) before enjoying a turnaround. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on ASB and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (rough order): RBL, CGF, URW, IPL, COE, SGH, SSM, FLT, Z1P/APT, SXL, RFG, AZJ, MYR.* + +*Previous Editions of Catching the Knife:* + +1. [The Second Australian Company (AGL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ms53c0/catching_the_knife_the_second_australian_company/) +2. [The Daigou Milk Company (A2M)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mxf4xu/catching_the_knife_the_daigou_milk_company_a2m/) +3. [The Largest Australian Energy Company (ORG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n1va2b/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_energy/) +4. [Amazon’s Bogan Australian Cousin (KGN)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/n7cpxk/catching_the_knife_amazons_bogan_australian/) +5. [Putting the Autistic Individual in AI (APX)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ncm2on/catching_the_knife_putting_the_autistic/) +6. [The Australian Telecom Company (TLS)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ni771f/catching_the_knife_the_australian_telecom_company/) +7. [The Company Formerly Known as an Insurance Co (AMP)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/nmvp0v/catching_the_knife_the_company_formerly_known_as/) +8. [The Largest Australian Salmon Farmer (TGR)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ns2qb5/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_salmon/) +9. [The Largest Australian IPO of 2020 (NXL)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/nxc84d/catching_the_knife_the_largest_australian_ipo_of/) +10. [Could this Stonk be the Next Telstra? (TPG)](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/o2mhq8/catching_the_knife_could_this_stonk_be_the_next/) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Is Melvin capital / Citron Capital the Lehman Brothers of 2021? + +Will this lead to a decrease in hedge funds trying to massively short companies (and thereby manipulating the markets)? + +Will the SEC halt trading entirely? Do you believe that to be based on concerns around market manipulation by WSB or to protect MC and CC? + +Please guys and girls - serious discussion, no WSB memes. +**An overview of the deplorable Mr. Ken Griffin** + +&#x200B; + +My fellow apes, + +I believe it was Sun Tzu who said "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." That is what we face every trading day, as the saga of GME continues. + +I am keen to inform you further about the antagonist of this story (though I'm sure as a likely narcissistic psychopath he doesn't see it that way). I am talking about **Mr. Kenneth Cordele Griffin**, founder, chief executive officer, Co-chief investment officer, and 85% owner of Citadel LLC - a man estimated to have horded a wealth of **$22.4 billion**. + +In case you are unaware, Citadel LLC are thought to be the primary short-sellers in the GME debacle, where they predatorially gave loans to Gabe Plotkin's company to prevent margin calls at the GME peak in late January of this year. Their relentless pursuit of profit has landed them in rather hot water this time, as I personally don't believe they ever wanted the public to be aware of their practices, nor they unbelievable amount of money they made at the cost of American jobs, businesses and livelihoods. + +Given Mr. Griffin is both CEO and 85% owner of Citadel, I think it is only fair to say he guides the operations of his business, and the operations are therefore reflective of his values. If you agree, it is therefore fair to attribute praise/blame (99% the latter) to the man who oversees all in this company. + +So, please join me in reviewing Mr. Griffin as a man, in both his personal and business affairs. In doing this research, I have personally been sickened by what sort of a man has risen to the top of the US pyramid, but I will leave it for your deliberation - enjoy: + +&#x200B; + +**Personal life** + +Bought the most expensive home in the US ever ($238m penthouse in NY), money that could have been used to help millions of others out of poverty, or maybe pay for almost 1000 $250,000 homes for those affected by the 2008 crash: + +[https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-most-expensive-home-ever-sold-us-nyc-penthouse-2019-1?r=US&IR=T](https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-most-expensive-home-ever-sold-us-nyc-penthouse-2019-1?r=US&IR=T) + +&#x200B; + +Oh wait, more multimillion dollar houses because of course you need those: + +[https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-real-estate-nyc-apartment-record-chicago-london-miami-2019-1?r=US&IR=T](https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-real-estate-nyc-apartment-record-chicago-london-miami-2019-1?r=US&IR=T) + +&#x200B; + +Owns $800m+ in art, instead of giving it to charity or allowing it to circulate through the economy: + +[https://news.artnet.com/art-world/art-industry-news-june-4-2020-1878852](https://news.artnet.com/art-world/art-industry-news-june-4-2020-1878852) + +&#x200B; + +Griffin owns **two** private jets: a 2001 [Bombardier Global Express](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardier_Global_Express) valued at $9.5 million, and a $50 million 2012 Bombardier Global 6000, so he hates the environment too: + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/photos-how-citadel-billionaire-ken-griffin-spends-his-fortune.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/photos-how-citadel-billionaire-ken-griffin-spends-his-fortune.html) + +&#x200B; + +He HATES being taxed, because having a fair amount of money would be unfair apparently: + +[https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/11/05/battle-of-the-billionaires-failed-illinois-income-tax-initiative-drew-more-than-110-million-from-governor-jb-pritzker-and-citadels-ken-griffin/?sh=6046e7302da4](https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2020/11/05/battle-of-the-billionaires-failed-illinois-income-tax-initiative-drew-more-than-110-million-from-governor-jb-pritzker-and-citadels-ken-griffin/?sh=6046e7302da4) + +&#x200B; + +He believes that people should be able to make unlimited contributions to politicians, but that these contributions should be public (P.S. USA wake up - this 'lobbying' disproportionately ensures rich people can trample you further) + +[https://money.cnn.com/2015/02/26/news/ken-griffin-political-contributions/](https://money.cnn.com/2015/02/26/news/ken-griffin-political-contributions/) + +&#x200B; + +Allegedly forced his second wife to sign prenuptial agreement from which he benefitted financially: + +[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11075726/US-billionaires-wife-claims-she-was-forced-into-prenuptial-before-Versailles-wedding.html](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11075726/US-billionaires-wife-claims-she-was-forced-into-prenuptial-before-Versailles-wedding.html) + +&#x200B; + +Refused to pay alimony, and threatened to sue ex-wife into the ground: + +[https://dealbreaker.com/2015/01/chicago-billionaire-sounds-like-a-real-treat](https://dealbreaker.com/2015/01/chicago-billionaire-sounds-like-a-real-treat) + +&#x200B; + +Oh, and he's got a real temper like all well-adjusted folks: + +[https://dealbreaker.com/2015/08/hedge-fund-manager-known-for-inspiring-spine-tingling-terror-in-people-hopes-to-lighten-things-up-with-haunted-house-come-october](https://dealbreaker.com/2015/08/hedge-fund-manager-known-for-inspiring-spine-tingling-terror-in-people-hopes-to-lighten-things-up-with-haunted-house-come-october) + +[https://qz.com/1969532/how-ken-griffins-citadel-transformed-financial-markets/](https://qz.com/1969532/how-ken-griffins-citadel-transformed-financial-markets/) + +[https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/citadel-chief-gives-up-dream-for-investment-bank/#](https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/citadel-chief-gives-up-dream-for-investment-bank/) + +&#x200B; + +He even smashed up furniture when his wife threatened to break up with him (she made a good choice): + +[https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/the-breakup-that-has-gripped-america-billionaire-smashed-up-furniture-when-wifetobe-queried-prenup-9711096.html](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/the-breakup-that-has-gripped-america-billionaire-smashed-up-furniture-when-wifetobe-queried-prenup-9711096.html) + +&#x200B; + +He doesn't do philanthropy because he is a good person; he does them for tax write-offs so jot that one down: + +[https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article249945144.html](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article249945144.html) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Business** + +From the start, he's far more likely to be a psychopath, and all of my reading has supported this (he is horrific to work for and as a person): + +[https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1ghpmmp796w07/Sports-Cars-Psychopaths-and-Testosterone-Inside-the-New-Frontier-of-Fund-Manager-Research](https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1ghpmmp796w07/Sports-Cars-Psychopaths-and-Testosterone-Inside-the-New-Frontier-of-Fund-Manager-Research) + +&#x200B; + +He doesn't do empathy: + +[https://www.efinancialcareers.co.uk/news/2021/04/ken-griffin-citadel](https://www.efinancialcareers.co.uk/news/2021/04/ken-griffin-citadel) + +&#x200B; + +A prideful man, who bragged in 2015 that Citadel "[manufactures money](https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadels-ken-griffin-leaves-2008-tumble-far-behind-1438655887) like an automaker manufactures cars" + +[https://www.ft.com/content/25e6100d-4cdd-45d0-aaab-6f9b77b14257](https://www.ft.com/content/25e6100d-4cdd-45d0-aaab-6f9b77b14257) + +&#x200B; + +He's living his best life pretending he's the 'Navy SEALS' of Finance (grandiose and delusional): + +[Ken Griffin on Forging the Navy SEALs of the Industry](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tW8Gk4cre8) + +&#x200B; + +Suspicious location of subsidiary company Palafox in the Cayman Islands (coincidentally a tax haven hmm). They are also prepared to collapse the world economy and indirectly kill thousands to make a quick buck: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the\_everything\_short/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/) + +&#x200B; + +Like a typical hedge fund/investment bank, Citadel doesn't give a s\*\*t about your work/life balance with 80+ hour workweeks: + +[https://www.glassdoor.sg/Reviews/Citadel-no-work-life-Reviews-EI\_IE14937.0,7\_KH8,20.htm](https://www.glassdoor.sg/Reviews/Citadel-no-work-life-Reviews-EI_IE14937.0,7_KH8,20.htm) + +[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/goldman-sachs-boss-responds-to-leaked-report-into-inhumane-working-hours](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/22/goldman-sachs-boss-responds-to-leaked-report-into-inhumane-working-hours) + +&#x200B; + +On top of this, they treat employees terribly, hence the high turnover (ex-Citadel employees, make him pay using the second link): + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/meoqgw/citadel\_headed\_toward\_hiring\_freeze\_deep\_dive/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/meoqgw/citadel_headed_toward_hiring_freeze_deep_dive/) + +[https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower](https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower) + +&#x200B; + +Tries to psych out his employees with long pauses and weird rituals because he's awful: + +[https://dealbreaker.com/2013/09/ken-griffin-strikes-fear-into-the-hearts-of-citadel-employees-](https://dealbreaker.com/2013/09/ken-griffin-strikes-fear-into-the-hearts-of-citadel-employees-with-long-pauses-strange-coffee-ritual)[with-long-pauses-strange-coffee-ritual](https://dealbreaker.com/2013/09/ken-griffin-strikes-fear-into-the-hearts-of-citadel-employees-with-long-pauses-strange-coffee-ritual) + +&#x200B; + +Wanted to be a whistle-blower/snitch, which was presumably done for a competitive advantage, not for altruism/respect of the law: + +[https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/citadel-a-24-billion-hedge-fund-seeks-65806/](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/citadel-a-24-billion-hedge-fund-seeks-65806/) + +&#x200B; + +Citadel PROFITED on the 2008 crash: + +[https://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/04/citadels-ken-griffin-poster-child-for-americans-anger-in-this-election/](https://wallstreetonparade.com/2016/04/citadels-ken-griffin-poster-child-for-americans-anger-in-this-election/) + +&#x200B; + +Citadel accepts these fines as they aren't high enough to be a deterrent (no shame at all eh lads?): + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9dfcw/100\_million\_in\_fines\_from\_citadel/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/m9dfcw/100_million_in_fines_from_citadel/) + +&#x200B; + +Just watch this, he doesn't blink and ABSOLUTELY believes everything he says: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cwf-JrrE9g](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cwf-JrrE9g) + +&#x200B; + +**And this is just the stuff we know. I'm sure even worse occurs behind closed doors. KEN GRIFFIN HATES YOU.** + +Overall, Ken Griffin was likely hoping he would never be in the limelight, but here we are (BTW please share this far and wide so people know how much of a deplorable piece of s\*\*t scumbag he is). He is, both in business and pleasure, a disgusting, greedy, angry, cheating human being who deserves to be in jail without a cent to his name. GME is your last chance to even get close to punishing these people. The American system has ensured the ivory towers of smoke and mirrors are built, and the final bricks that will ensure invincibility lie here - KNOCK THE CITADEL DOWN AND USE THE BRICKS TO BUILD HOMES, SCHOOLS AND HOSPTIALS. + +*If anyone has any more additions/changes (there will be loads because he's truly detestable), please message me and I will edit.* + +Thank you for reading. Please GME to the moon, and hopefully Ken to jail 🚀🚀🚀 + +*Edited for readability* + +*Disclaimer: all of this information was available online. You'll have to sue them first before you sue me lol* +I’m 17 with 14k saved up. I now work 2 jobs. Paying $15 an hour and $20. My parents pay the bills and I don’t really spend money. I am wondering if Its a smart idea to lease a 2022 Honda Civic. It will cost $80 a week and insurance will cost anywhere between 100-300 a month. It will take 1-4 months for the car to arrive. What is the best choice in this situation? +[Right off the bat here is the link.](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uCpJDkNxmemNixEIWoz2XguucY4ySvOIR9x2nQGi3Zs/edit?usp=sharing) + +You just have to manually add - The Stock, Quantity, and Avg. Cost. Everything else is automated. + +It shows the percentage of holding + +* based on an individual stock +* based on sector +* and based on market capitalization. + +As an overview of your holding the tool shows - + +* 1 Month/ 6 Months/ 1 Year Price Chart.(Shows whatever option you select) +* LTP of the stock. +* Current Value of the stock. +* P/L in Rupees. +* P/L in Percentage. +* Percentage of Holding. +* The sector of the Stock. +* The market Cap of the Stock. +* Graphical presentation of holding based on the sector as well as market cap. + +Everything is already mentioned in the first sheet of the tool. + +I spent a lot of time and effort building this, so please check it out. I hope you find this helpful :D + +[Here's the link, again!](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uCpJDkNxmemNixEIWoz2XguucY4ySvOIR9x2nQGi3Zs/edit?usp=sharing) +Elon has battled shorts for almost a decade. We all remember when he complained that shorting should be illegal, and when he released “short shorts” when he finally defeated them. + +But guess who used to brag about shorting Tesla? Gabe 🌈🐻 Plotkin. + +From [Bloomberg:](https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2019-07-19/cohen-cub-gabriel-plotkin-sees-fund-surge-about-44-this-year) + +Plotkin described Melvin as “a very human-intensive place. We have a lot of analysts, we require a lot out of them.” The team has modeled more than 500 companies in “significant detail,” while a data science group reads into trends. +He added that the firm has an “intense focus” on the short side, with about 70% of profits in Melvin’s first year coming from bearish bets. Plotkin expressed skepticism about mall real estate investment trusts, as well as electric-car maker Tesla Inc. + +$GME to the 🌚, then profits back to a safe store of value: $TSLA. + +UPDATE: [better source](https://fintel.io/so/us/tsla/melvin-capital-management-lp) showing Melvin Capital’s puts on TSLA from 2016 through 2020 + +UPDATE 2: stop giving me silver awards your cheap bastards. Platinum or GTFU. + +UPDATE 3: [positions or ban. ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l5s9ss/curious_why_papa_elon_is_shilling_gme_its_because/gkwauak/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3). You can check out my post history for all my plays to see how I over 10X my $500K from a year ago. + +Update 4: hi r/all, for those of you wondering what in the hell is going on with Gamestock, [this comment ](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l5s9ss/curious_why_papa_elon_is_shilling_gme_its_because/gkx1nd7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) sums it up nicely. +My biggest pet peeve: When realtors post a new home and say, “Would make a great investment property!”, when in fact, they know NOTHING about investment properties. + +For example: Home Price: $279k, Avg Rents: $1200/mo. + +Um, no. Just no. + +That’s all. </rant>. Have a good day, everyone. +Here is the write-up I did a few months ago. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/vmavi6/i\_think\_twilio\_twlo\_is\_trading\_at\_a\_62\_discount/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/vmavi6/i_think_twilio_twlo_is_trading_at_a_62_discount/) + +I was wrong in some parts and right in others. First, let me start with my last sentence: + +>I do not think we will get many opportunities to buy at current prices. + +That did not age well. That comment was said with the stock price at $97. The stock is currently sitting at $43 per share after a massive selloff. A heavy dose of humility has been delivered. + +My target price for my write-up was $255 at that moment (June 27, 2022). + +My targets for growth were in line. I was reasonably conservative and hit the numbers on the spot for Q3. Where I did not do well was an 18% overall increase in operating expenses. After a layoff of about 10% of the workforce, I expected at least a maintenance of expenses, if not a reduction. Management has implemented cost reduction measures, but they do not seem to be happening fast enough. I would expect the full results of the adjustments to be visible next quarter. + +Based on new guidance offered by management and the increase in the cost of capital. I would set my new target price at $116 per share. I still think the stock is undervalued right now by 63%. I think there is a considerable upside if and when market conditions change in a few years. For now, I would rather stay in conservative numbers. + +**Learnings** + +The margin of safety is extremely important. I knew it, we all knew it, but now I KNOW it. I was very wrong. I have a bunch of unrealized losses, but I kept buying at increasingly higher safety margins. At this point, I stand at an avg. price of $66. + +Something particularly important, I believe, is to dollar cost average your entries. Even though I was wrong, I still have a high conviction in this company, so I kept buying shares, and I will continue if prices continue to drop, which they might. + +Thoughts are still flowing through my head about this. I have three key positions. TWLO is number 2 as a % of my portfolio. Emotionally, it's been ok, to be honest. I feel like I am coming stronger from this as I decided to take a rational approach to this. I have sold other positions at a loss, where I did not see I had such a large margin of safety. As I move on my investment journey, I concentrate more on high-conviction bets. It does take a toll to constantly put your savings into this and look at the portfolio value diminishing, but I feel confident I'll come out fine in the end. + +What do you guys think? Would love to hear other people's comments about TWLO and their investment journey. +"In March [$ABNB](https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ABNB&src=cashtag_click) was cut to $18 billion by investors. Eight months later, Airbnb is a $100 billion company on IPO day. That works out to growth of about $10 billion a month, for a travel company, during a global pandemic. Enjoy your stay. It is the rare IPO with history of profits." + +$ABNB worth more than Bookings $BKNG ($87B company) + Dear all, + +~40, M, NW 15 mln. EUR. + +I just cancelled my job as a Director in order to start FF. No specific plans, just some Real Estate and seeing my 1yo daughter grow up while my wife would pursue her career. I was just tired of travelling all across Europe not seeing my family. + +Then a headhunter turned up and offered a C- Suite position in an attractive company paying 1,5 times my current salary. Anyhow, this salary would not drastically increase my NW. We are in GER, so salaries are low compared to the US. + +Supervisory board seems to be really nice, similar to colleagues. The job seems to be easy and offers a lot of status, recognition. First time in my career many things seem to fit. + +Downside: HQ from new company is several 100 KM from my home which translates into 3 days in my home city and 2 days in their HQ. So I would need to travel again which leads to additional complexity regarding childcare/my wifes career and not seeing my kid grow up that much. + +Key question: What do you value more retrospectively: Status/money/recognition or seeing your kid grow up? What would you do? What are your stories? + +Thank you very much. + +Edit: Clarified wording +Edit: Many thanks for all your thoughts. I learned that I am not willing to sacrifice seeing my daughter grow up while on the other handed side I definite will need to go on working, maybe closer to home ;-) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Just curious what everyone thinks about the high house prices at the moment. Obviously the prices have been artificially pushed up but does anyone believe there's going to be a crash? + +Almost bought a flat as an investment last year, seller pulled out last minute. Same flats just gone up and been sold for 13% more than the price I agreed on a year ago. + +I haven't bought property before and I really want to do something with my money before I waste it all on penny stocks on the AIM. I like the idea of a buy to let (I would have had about 9% yield before tax on this flat), or even flipping. But everything just seems so overpriced at the moment? +I hate paying for parking even if it's $2.00 I would just rather walk a few more minutes and find free parking. + +Also I hate the idea of vallet parking. I am happy parking my own car. + +I have a max cap of $50.00 for an item of clothing. I could buy brand names but I don't care. Some cheap stuff has actually lasted me for years and it still looks ok despite thinking it would be the opposite. + +I am a woman and I'm in a business where looks are important but I think spending money on getting your nails done is a total waste. + + I have gotten my nails done a couple of times in my life and I would just sit there bored out of my mind until they would finish. Some women think that's pampering I think it's more like torture. +They would chip a week later forcing you to go in and cough another $50.00. +I don't understand how some women that make very little spend this on a weekly basis. + +Also I don't think most men really care about nails as long as they are kept clean and trimmed but I'm not a guy so who knows. I could have been missing out on so many dates because of my boring nails. 😮 😁 + + +I also don't buy imported groceries/produce unless I really have to and stick to local stuff which is 3 times cheaper or more where I live. + +However I will splurge on restaurants and booze and don't feel bad trying the most expensive restaurant in town. (Although I won't do it regularly and enjoy the hole in the wall spots just as much) + +I also spend on travel and rent nicer places and would stay in nicer hotels because my free time is sacred and I want to feel as comfortable as I can when I take time off. +Today has probably been one of the worst days of my life. I'm 17, just graduated from high school, and now I've been kicked out of my home by the very people who gave me life. I'm homeless because of my sexuality, something that is beyond my control. I don't know where I'll be sleeping tonight and I don't know where life's road will lead me. I'm scared, alone and broke. I don't have a shoulder to lean on, money to buy food or a pillow to lay my head against. I never thought that this would happen to me. Does anybody have any advice? Unfortunately, moving back home isn't an option right now. I'm at the public library writing this right now, so prompt responses would be greatly appreciated. Thank you so much. + +Update: Wow! The amount of outpouring love and support that I have received from this post has been incredibly heart-warming. Reading your lovely messages has given me comfort in this time of crippling uncertainty and destitution. So from the bottom of my heart, I just want to thank every single one of you who has taken the time to listen and to help. Yesterday, I felt so lost and alone; as if I was a speck of dust in a world that was sure to consume me. But today, I've found hope. I've found the will to keep trudging on despite adversity. I apologize for not updating this post sooner as I have been busy trying to get in contact with my uncle and haven't had access to the internet. Although he is uncomfortable with my homosexuality, he has provided me with warm meals and a place of refuge until I can get back on my feet. At any rate, I am safe and will be fine. I will be starting my job hunt tomorrow so everything seems to be coming up roses for the time being. Once again, thank you all so much. This community of people is truly great. Btw, I have received a flurry of messages and will try my best to respond to as many as I can :) + +I’m literally at my wits end right now I’m just so exhausted emotionally. + + +I currently live on my own because I grew up in an extremely toxic household. I was never able to afford college and when I turned 20 my parents kicked me out of the house. It’s been a struggle these past 3 years living alone and living paycheck to paycheck but I’ve managed. I rarely see my parents now, just on a birthday here or there or lightly over the holidays. + + +Recently my parents saw me post about my significant other online and they became enraged. Within an hour of me posting the pictures of the two of us together my parents were spamming my phone with texts like “how could you?” and “we would never support a marriage with someone like that”. I tried talking to them on the phone and explaining that I’m an adult and I can date who I want even if it’s someone who has a different background than me. My mom ended the call with “we will see about that”. + + +I thought that was the end of it until just this past Tuesday my card was declined at the grocery store for insufficient funds. When I checked my banking app nearly all of my funds have been withdrawn from my account. I panicked and called my bank and was basically told my parents were still authorized users on my account and they had access to send/withdraw funds. + + +At this point I was so upset I was in tears and called up my mom who said they withdrew the funds because I was “no longer their daughter” because of who I decided to date. My mom said she kept note of every time they gave me money for a birthday or holiday ever since I was a child and she was just getting that money back since I was being disowned. The amount totaled to essentially my entire balance so my bank account was wiped cleaned. + + +Since then all my automatic charges on my account keep bouncing since I’m entirely broke. My utilities all bounced, I haven’t been able to buy food since Tuesday and my rent which was due earlier this week also went unpaid. I asked my work for an advance but was denied and I don’t get paid for over a week still. + + +Worse still my parents also reached out to my significant other and basically told him to stay away from me. I guess this spooked him because we haven’t been talking the past few days. I’m just feeling so depressed and alone right now. The only text messages I’ve received today is my landlord threatening to start the eviction process since I haven’t been able to pay my rent still even after I tried explaining the situation to him. + + +I’ve been trying to fight the bank to get back the money in my account but it’s currently not looking too good. There’s just so much going on with trying to make sure my relationship is okay, dealing with my parents and also trying not to get kicked out on the street or starve before next week’s paycheck. +I work for a fortune 500 tech company that is doing fairly well during this crisis. We already had a strong work from home culture and some of their product lines are in high demand right now yet they felt the need to discontinue our 401k match for the remainder of the year. Their stock is even up currently! + +That works out to be a $7500 pay cut I had not anticipated. I felt like I was in a pretty secure industry but I guess not. Is anyone else seeing cuts to their benefits who are in industries not directly effected by Covid? It seems like my company is just being incredibly greedy and it makes me depressed that they would already cut our benefits when they have not been adversely effected. Sorry for the rant but just curious if this will be common or if I should look for a new job. +I was looking at the returns for last 5,10 years and they're around 8%. But if we take into consideration LTCG of 20.3% it comes down to around 6.4%. +Why would that be lucrative then. +Why not invest in EPF, VPF, PPF or SSY where returns are not taxed and you get >7% on all the schemes. +I work at a bank in Bangladesh and the work conditions at my workplace is downright bad and unethical. + + + I wanted to analyze it using Economics methodology/tools but people keep telling me that its just not possible. That you cannot use Economics to analyze such situations. And that its disciplines like Organizational Behavior that can only make sense of this. + +Can someone explain why Economics cannot be used to analyze work conditions? +I'm always suspicious of not well-known users suddenly receiving a ton of attention. I watched the post attacking Dave get bombed with awards and comments saying very plastic stuff affirming the OP. + +Dave has made his own post in defense and stating he will answer any and all questions. + +I don't deny the possibility of deep shilling being possible, BUT it's suspicious as fuck that there's suddenly out of nowhere a ton of users commenting that Dave is UNDOUBTEDLY a shill. I've been in this sub since the beginning and the crowd here just doesn't operate like that. There's always thorough investigation and vetting into any claim. This isn't natural and reeks of FUD. + +Buy, Hodl, DRS as always. +I haven't heard from him since he got banned and the whole "Citadel Coke Break" footage blew up. It also appears his phone was disconnected at that time. + +We were chatting a bit last week about how the footage went viral, but I haven't heard from him even after I checked in on him [yesterday](https://imgur.com/a/4eT2KQm) + +If you're wondering why those last two messages are green and not blue, so am I. I had a good connection when I sent those and was absolutely connected to WiFi as well. This is rather unusual for him as he normally responds within the day at the latest, and we'd been communicating daily beforehand. + +Drone Guy, if you're out there, and you're reading this, I hope you're okay. You're the best damn drone pilot in Chicago, you've got balls of steel for posting that footage on your personal Youtube and reddit account, and a good friend. I hope when all this is over we can have a drink on the moon together and you can tell me what happened after you went off the grid. + +It sounds morbid, but I would also like to make [this](https://imgur.com/a/92Uxn1f) text public. For those of you wondering how I know Drone Guy, I was his navigator and lookout, not a good enough one though I suppose... +There's always something you can give to someone who helps you even if that's just gratitude. My friend is broke but she gets eggs off the old lady down the road. She gives her veggie scraps and takes her bins out as thanks. + +A lot of people have given our kids hand-me-downs. I'm always sure to take a picture with them enjoying the toy/whatever and send it to them with a thanks. People feel bad about giving their old, used stuff but that just means that their kids loved it to near death. Toys in perfect condition were never played with. + +My husband and I only had one car and we had two families pick our kids up for school runs on days he worked (Nurse so roster is always different). Once a month I have all the kids over for a sleepover and big breakfast so both parents can take the night off and have a sleep-in. It costs me only pizza and popcorn and they saved me buying an extra car when we were struggling. + +- Alternatively - + +My brother and his wife are super loaded. They're rich bc they work all the time though and always need help with their kids. I've been picking their kids up from school and taking them home when they're sick for 6 months now. I recently moved and when I let her know I couldn't do it anymore, she just complained that now she has to find someone else to do it. + +I didn't click with the ungratefulness at first and just mentioned that I find people to be so helpful. She groaned that they always are AT FIRST. Then they "couldn't care less". I have never heard either of them thank any family members for the 6 years of favours they have asked with their kids. + +People love to help but they need to know that you'll have their back or at least get how much they're doing for you. +Found out from the mother in law who works at a major retail store, that as soon as Job Keeper ends in late September her hours are being halved from 20 hours per week to 10 hours, this is also happening to the other normal store workers. + +If this is common place in other companies which I suspect it will be, from October unemployment or more importantly underemployment will become a serious issue over the next year or two. +As in, pre-agreed profit margins for some industries, company shares for employees, capitalism but regulated. + +As opposed to socialism where the government owns services, you would just control how much profit companies made. + +The point being to stop companies from overcharging for their product/service, and ensure that taxes are paid correctly and employees are well valued. + +Im sure you can tell from my question that i am not an economist + + +Thanks +Can anyone share their experience of purchasing and managing farmland in India. +1. Where did you buy +2. What was the reason for purchase. For ex. Building a farmhouse, Organic farming etc. +3. What was the cost per acre. +4. How much has it appreciated since. +5. Did you buy from realtor or directly from a farmer +6. Any pitfalls to avoid. +So I’ve been thinking about regrets people have had in the past, you know the stories where people say “oh I invested in Bitcoin at $1,000 but sold when it hit $7,000” we’ve seen the same regrets over and over again. + +Here’s a solution. Say you wanna hold for at least 5 years, but you’re afraid your paper hands mentality will take over and you’ll sell early, here’s what you do. + +1) invest as much as you can into BTC (or whatever coin you have faith in) + +2) You commit a crime that gets you that many years, maybe armed robbery? GTA? I dunno, DYOR with the crimes in your local area. + +Plead guilty, do the time, come out rich as fuck. + +This is financial advice, you’re welcome. + +/s +So I’ve been thinking about regrets people have had in the past, you know the stories where people say “oh I invested in Bitcoin at $1,000 but sold when it hit $7,000” we’ve seen the same regrets over and over again. + +Here’s a solution. Say you wanna hold for at least 5 years, but you’re afraid your paper hands mentality will take over and you’ll sell early, here’s what you do. + +1) invest as much as you can into BTC (or whatever coin you have faith in) + +2) You commit a crime that gets you that many years, maybe armed robbery? GTA? I dunno, DYOR with the crimes in your local area. + +Plead guilty, do the time, come out rich as fuck. + +This is financial advice, you’re welcome. + +/s +Hello, + +Last week N26 blocked my account and cards without any notice or any explanation, i kept constantly chatting with them in the live support to at least get a reason why, they told me to wait for an email. + +and this morning i got this email: + +Cancellation of your account------------------------------------------ + +To ensure our customers’ privacy and account safety, we are obligated to run routine checks on accounts and transactions. + +As part of these checks, we have identified irregularities that require us to terminate your N26 account pursuant to the Termination Clause of the Terms and Conditions of your N26 account on an extraordinary basis and without prior notice. + +This termination is effective immediately. Usage of your N26 account, app, and card is no longer possible. + +It is currently not possible to withdraw the remaining balance on your N26 account. Please send us proof of the origin of the funds through appropriate receipts. We will then assess whether a payout of the remaining balance is possible. This information may be emailed as a scan or photo. + +If you would like to continue correspondence via email, we’ll need your express consent. Therefore, **please reply directly to this email with the above information** within the next 14 days and include the following statement: + +"I authorize N26 Bank to email me my personal data". + +Please note that you can revoke your consent to the transmission of personal data by email at any time. In this case, we will only communicate by post. It’s important to note that the transmission of your data by post is usually more secure. Please contact us for more information. + +Thank you for your understanding. + +One last thing—you’ll need to request your N26 data or your Statement of Fees information. You can request this for up to six months after your account closure, but we recommend doing it as soon as possible. + +\---------------------------------------- + +I don't get which irregularities they detected, i never done anything suspicious, i'm a student and i have scholarship so i get monthly payments, and also every now and then my family sends me money to my Paysera account and then i transfer it to my N26 account. + +I could easily give them proof of the scholarship, but what about my own transfers from Paysera, how can i prove that ? anyone faced a similar issue ? + + +UPDATE: for anyone wondering, i sent them proof of funds (scholarship contract and account statement of my Paysera account from my own transfers) and they accepted it and got my money back in a week or so +I've been investing in TSLA for years with some shares up 4000% and others up as little as 20%. My position is ~4600 shares along with some TSLA LEAPS. The valuation is $5 million. I have another $3 million in other assets (real estate and some Vanguard index funds). + +I have only focused on investing with size into TSLA and then some passive index investing with Vanguard. + +I'm not necessarily looking to sell off my TSLA now but I am exploring the idea of exiting a large portion so that I could reinvest into dividends, etc, and live off the income stream. + +I have shared this similar story in a few other subreddits and was recommended tickers like SCHD, QYLD, QYLG, XYLD, RYLD, YLDS, etc. Another person recommended I post here in the dividends community. If anyone has done this in a lump sum manner I'd be interested in what you did. + +Note: In the past, I avoided dividend investing because I'm in a high tax bracket and didn't want to pay extra taxes on dividends while I was still working (I figured I would focus on investing in a growth stock company I spent a lot of time studying where I knew that I wouldn't have to think about dividend income anytime soon). If I did this trade I'd also quit my job for now. +I started investing only in 2018. Not too long ago. I opened up a Kuvera account - because it didn't have DEMAT crap and I was only interested in Mutual Funds. I only put money in 4-5 funds. + +It's been 4 years and 2 months since I started investing properly. In this time, my XIRR i.e Internal Return Rate is 17.4% and absolute Return is 40%. Proof (screenshots) - https://imgur.com/a/CGWgqts + +What were my funds? + +- UTI Nifty 50 Index Growth Direct Plan + +- Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Growth Direct Plan + +- UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Growth Direct Plan + +- Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Growth Direct Plan + +- Motilal Oswal midcap and small cap indexes (introduced later and added along the way) + +As you can see, none of these funds were anything extraordinary. Just plain old regular blue chip funds majorly. + +**Then what did I do correctly?** + +- Didn't lose my job. + +- Never stopped my SIP even for one month. + +That's it. That's literally it. I just invested straight through the long flat period of 2018-19 and through COVID. + +If I had waited for the dip, I would've never jumped in at the right time (In hindsight this was Apr 3 2020) and probably not made these returns. +So last weekend my life suddenly became that hypothetical: "What would you do if you suddenly were handed $10,000?" when my great uncle (still alive and kicking) gave me, my siblings, and my aunt each $10,000 cash in an envelope (best envelope I've ever received!) because, "I'd rather take care of you guys while I'm alive than in my will." Cool. + +But now I'm in a situation where I don't really know what to do with it! My hubs and I are very stable financially at the moment. Our only debt is my husband's student loans which are less than $9,000. Yes we could pay that off technically, but that seems like a boring way to spend a gift and the loans are paused now and helping his credit score so.... Eh. We also have our 6 months of expenses in savings, we have a fairly robust vacation fund left over from our honey moon, and we're moving soon so we're avoiding buying things we don't truly need. I'm thinking about using $1,000 of it for fun stuff (hubs' birthday is coming up, maybe doing couples massage, expensive dinner, that sort of thing that we usually can't afford), and need help deciding where to put/invest the rest. + +For background, we both have ROTH IRAs, I have a 401K, we have a Vanguard account currently growing our future house down payment, and I have a Stash account. These are all viable options, but they just seem like boring ways to use this money. I need some people to hype them up for me. + +Let me know your thoughts! Thanks! +[Article in question](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53894998) + + + +Maybe I'm being unreasonable this early in the morning, but I thought the messaging in this article was quite misleading by mistaking spending for saving. The original headline for this article was "I saved £150 doing Eat Out to Help Out" based on the experiences of a woman who must have eaten out at least 15 times in two weeks. + + +I would only call this saving money if you were originally planning to eat out 15 times on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday in the space of two weeks and the govt deal allowed you to reclaim some of that cash back. + +Otherwise a better headline would read "I spent £150+ taking advantage of EOTHO" +Hi, I’m currently doing 45-50% of my income into index funds (combined via a mega backdoor Roth and also my regular 401k), but on a whim I’m wondering if I should be looking into real estate investing instead for better returns or cash flow? I’d only want to do buy and hold (probably at a distance) rather than managing people for flipping, but I frankly don’t know much beyond that. + +Curious your thoughts +>Tesla CEO Elon Musk is telling his employees they need to cut costs or they can kiss its lofty stock price goodbye. + +>Tesla (TSLA) shares have been among the best performers in 2020, rising nearly 600% through Tuesday trading, making it among the most valuable stocks in the country, worth more than any major automaker. After years of losses Tesla has now reported five straight quarters of positive net income. +>But in an email to employees Musk acknowledged that Tesla's actual profit margin is fairly low, only about 1%, and that the stock price is due to investor expectations of future profits rather than recent results. +>"If, at any point, they conclude that's not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a soufflé under a sledgehammer!" he wrote in the email, which was first reported by Electrek. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment about the email. + +https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/business/elon-musk-tesla-stock-price/index.html +Did anyone spend a significant amount of money improving their physical appearance after FAT? Plastic surgery, personal trainer, nutritionist, personal chef, etc? Did you get the results you were hoping for? +If someone were to shift their focus to only making money and budgeting wisely what would be the best way to make money in the long term. Would it be stocks? Investing? Real estate? +What am I missing? Are there any risks of it I am not seeing? It’s literally SPY, but 3x per day, so in the long term if it goes up it will actually be more than 3x because of compounding. Which is why I am wondering if there are any risks I am overseeing. +Okay- to make a long story short. + +My Grandparents are in their 70's and are selling the family farm in what will likely be the next year(12 to 18 months) or so and I am mashing the panic button. + +I'm only just about to turn 22, but I want badly to be able to take on the family farm. + +The farm is likely to sell for $750,000, and obviously to make a reasonable down payment I'll need $150,000. + +Is it even possible to make that much money fast? I am extremely tied to the farm and would be devastated if I missed out on it. + +Edit: + +Firstly, I am Canadian + +Okay, so after taking the night to sleep on it and read each and every one of your comments I feel it is the right thing to do to update everyone. + +First and foremost it's clear that I need to speak with my Grandparents. I've put it off because my grandma has health issues and I didn't want to stress them out. But if I want this to happen then I just need to have that conversation. + +My grandfather retired from farming 2 seasons after the harvest of 2019. At this time he is making boat loads of money renting all of that farmable land and his quarter section of cattle land. He sold all of his equipment so I would be starting from scratch on that of things(obviously not a good start either) + +In theory, I could run a cattle and grain operation, as well as make money selling wood from a lot of the forested areas he owns. + +The problem is just about getting started, which is a far cry from being as easy as it was in 1969 on the prairies. + +Overall, this is not just something I want because of emotional and familial reasons. I believe the best way to raise a family is on a farm next to town- which is what this property is. + +HOWEVER, I completely understand that this has about a 1% chance of ever happening for me, and I just need to accept it and move on. It breaks my heart but it is what it is. + +Thank you all for your words of wisdom reality checks, and even insults in some cases. It gave my a wake up call. + +If I pull a rabbit out of a hat and make this dream come true then I'll update everyone again +I recently received a $100,000 inheritance and would like to invest for long-term growth. I'm 29 and my time horizon is long (\~30 years). I already own a mix of value stocks, tech, and index funds. + +Given the current market situation, would you invest $120,000 right now or wait several months to see if there is an additional correction? I am strongly considering holding cash or perhaps spreading out my buys over a period, but am unsure what my plan should be. + +**P.S.** I know the correct answer is "It won't matter in 30 years." But let's ignore that for the sake of this post. +*crossed, I proofread my entire post but forgot to do the title goddammit. + +This post isn't meant to be any kind of brag/humblebrag, simply motivation for people out there that maybe find the FI/RE lifestyle untenable. I know there's a lot of people on here that don't have a fancy degree, $150k/year jobs, marry into wealth, get a large inheritance, etc. etc. This is a topic for the average Joe that's maybe a little lost in life but being stuck in the daily grind until he or she is 70 and life is behind them isn't what they want. + +*** + +My Background Info + +Grew up in suburbia outside of a LCOL city in the Northeast USA. Still live in the same general area. Most of my family is dead or I'm not in contact with them (not trying to be a sob story here), and have had no inheritances or insurance payouts. I went to college for about 2 years but absolutely hated it - I was never more depressed in my life than in my last year of high school and into college. I never knew what I wanted to do and majored in something I was good at (Math) but... ugh, I just hate talking about it. I hated school so much, and wish I put a lot more thought into things when I was younger, but I didn't have any direction and went to college just because it was what everyone else was doing and was expected of me. Looking back, I wish I had gone with a trade or at least community college first, but oh well. I had some scholarships but the majority of my college was paid for via loans, which I still had to pay off with no degree to show for it. I finished paying these off completely about 2 years ago. + +I still have no idea what I want to do with my life. If you're in the same boat, I really hope this speaks to you, because being financially independent and retiring early is still in your grasp if you put your mind to it. I have a lot of hobbies but I feel like I've never found my passion, and I'm still looking. + +*** + +Net Worth + +Assets: + +* $56k condo. I bought this almost 3 years ago. I have HOA fees but that combined with utilities and my mortgage payment, I'm paying a hair under $800/month (and I live alone!). I got a really good deal at the time - most of the units in this condominium were going for $60-65k and housing has gone up, so if and when I sell I will probably make more, but for the purposes of this thread I'm lowballing and just using what I paid for it originally. Living in a LCOL of living area has been huge for me. + +* $55.5k in retirement accounts. This is the big one. I started investing in my company's 401k as soon as I got to my current job 5 years ago, even though I didn't fully know what I was getting into. It was one of the best decisions I've ever made. $49k in 401k and $5.7k in a Roth IRA that I started this year. If you're going to stop here my biggest piece of financial advice is INVEST EARLY. Invest as early as possible. Yes, we're probably going to see market corrections soon because it's been insane lately, but if you're super worried about it I advise you to read [this](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiring-story-of-the-worst-market-timer-ever.html). + +* $20k in bank. I have about $13k in my saving account at the local credit union, and $7k in a checking account. This one I'm still working on - it's hard for me to not have money in my account because I'm just a worrisome Wally. In January, I am going to dump another $5.5k from this into my IRA and then figure out what to do with the rest. + +* $7.5k car, fully paid off. The range on KBB is $7,780-$8,973 for my car in good condition. Again, lowballing because I take good care of it but I'm rounding down for everything in the asset category. + +Total is $139k. + +Liabilities: + +* $32.1k left on my mortage payments. This is very slightly rounded up. I've been aggressive paying this off, simply because I'm a debt averse person. Most people on this sub would recommend NOT paying this off as aggressively as I have because I'd get better returns investing, but I'm okay with this and it's given me peace of mind. + +* And that's it. I mentioned I paid off my student loans, and I always pay off my credit cards in full because I only buy things I can already afford. Not having (a lot of) debt is GREAT, and something I highly recommend. + +Assets - Liability = Net Worth: + +$139k - $32.1k = $106.9k + +*** + +I was working dead end jobs during and after college just kind of putzing around for a few years. My last two jobs I was making $8.25/hr and $8/hr. A friend of mine invited me to a job fair and I said what the hell. It wasn't a job fair, it was a headhunter/temp agency that got our information. My friend and I hit it off with the lady, and she recommended a really good company to work for and again, I said what the hell. It was a factory job and I was making $12/hour, which was awesome to me at the time. I worked in the factory for about 2 years when a position opened up in the office at the same company. I applied because again, what the hell, and got the position mostly due to my experience and interpersonal skills. It's a really boring, primarily data entry position, but with raises and such I'm up to just over $17/hour, with a monthly bonus of anywhere from 5%-20% (it's usually around 16% or so). So about $20/hour. With overtime, I've been coming in around or just under $45k/year (pre-taxes... my state income taxes are prettay prettay prettay high), and will probably be around there again this year. + +It is NOT glamorous. I kind of glossed over it, but I've busted my ass to get here over the past 5 years. I started working a hard labor job that I fell into, and lucked into a position opening up, but I got both positions and rose to where I am because of my skills, attitude, and by working hard. I do not like my job at all, but it's far and away the best job I've ever had. I have health insurance. I have a 401k, and they match up to 6% of what I put in (currently putting in 20% of my paycheck, may go higher next year). It can be high stress when I get busy but I often times find myself spending half the day on reddit, and I read a lot on the job. I have to stretch every morning and evening because I get sciatic nerve pain from sitting all day. + +I don't plan on going back to school, probably never will. I don't know what I want to do with my life. But I'm really enjoying it. I don't let my job define me. I have hobbies and friends I really enjoy. I date, and I've been getting into travelling a lot more. I took two road trips this year, and next year I hope to go overseas for the first time in my life. + +I've always been a naturally frugal person, so I plan to lean FIRE. I don't have an end goal number - I just know I want to retire as soon as possible so I can spend more time on myself. I want to explore more hobbies. I want to see what the world has to offer me. I do eventually want to find something I'm truly passionate about, but at this point I don't think I'll be too upset if that never comes. + +*** + +My thoughts are kind of all over the place. I'm writing this while watching Night of the Creeps because it's October, and I'm not a great writer to begin with. If you take anything away from my post, take away these 3 things: + +1) Enjoy and live your life. Your happiness, no matter what triggers it, is paramount. + +2) Your path to financial independence doesn't have to be like anyone else's. Use the insane amount of resources available to you on this sub and online, but don't get discouraged if your decisions and what's available to you is different. + +3) Fuck work. + +EDIT: I'm signing off this throwaway, appreciated reading and responding to you guys in here. I hope this reaches people that need it - I never would have believed I'd be in this position even just two years ago. It gets better, keep working at it. I love this sub and am so I glad I found it, not just for the advice and good conversation but because it's so nice to be understood by like-minded people. + +EDIT2: Well it's safe to say this got a tad more exposure than I thought it would (2nd highest upvoted thread on this sub all time... holy moly). I decided to log back into the throwaway and will be commenting on a few more posts. Most notably, a lot of people seemed to be interested in my condo and especially the price, so I made a [standalone post about it here](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/744o7e/28m_single_cross_100k_net_worth_this_year_no/dnx0i0i/). + +I just want to thank everyone for reading, it was fun to share my story and read through all the posts today at work. I kind of forgot about the topic and then checked the sub at work on my break like I usually do and was blown away. I'm especially tickled pink about the posts people have made about being in the same or similar situation, past, present, and future. It's always so nice for me to find people that I can relate with, and when I saw all the posts about people just starting out at a similar salary and talking about how my post gave them motivation, it warmed the cockles of my heart. Apparently I also have a few long lost twins out there. +What do economists think of a Medicare for All healthcare system? Could it be financed? Why is the US healthcare system so expensive? What would the impact on rates of illegal immigration be if M4A was expanded to cover illegal immigrants? (last question is my biggest one) + +How do politicians raise taxes on the wealthy and expect them to pay it? How can the US stop billionaires from moving money to offshore accounts and not destroy itself in the process? +https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/federal-reserve-to-lend-additional-1-trillion-a-day-to-large-banks + +What was the deal with the fed loaning up to 1 trillion dollars per day to big banks in late March in response to the pandemic? Could someone explain how this works and how we financed this? + +Could you link me scholarly sources where I can find more about these issues? + +Thank you all very much in advance. :) +This is an honest question and not a statement. How likely is it that a housing market correction will be caused by the rise in popularity of real estate investing? + +It seems like everywhere I turn, more and more people are borrowing for the purpose of investing. They are pulling HELOCs and dumping more into property. People don’t seem particularly critical of the risks they are taking on or crunching the numbers. Even Zillow couldn’t get it right. Perhaps this has been covered in depth but when I think about things that could cause a correction, it seems plausible. Anyway, feel free to agree, shoot this down, or point to an article, just a question for discussion. +Non-native English speaker here. + +&#x200B; + +It seems that virtually all the occupations of an Economist is in the government. There does not seem to be that many Economist jobs in the private sector. + +I am referring to Economist occupations here and I am not talking about people with a background in Economics who goes on to be a Financial Analyst within a business or do any other job other than that of Economics regardless of their occupational title. + +&#x200B; + +My question is: + +\- What percentage of Economist jobs are in the private sector? + +\- What are the *types* of these jobs? + +\- What do people in these jobs do on a daily basis? For instance what does a corporate economist do? + +&#x200B; + +PS: I know these are basic questions, but I couldn't find any information on this topic even after weeks of searching. Maybe I am using the incorrect search terms in Google because English is not my native language. If anyone can guide me to a PDF or link online where I can get the information in my questions that would be great as well. + +Thanks in advance. +At the beginning of the year I lent my friend quite a sizable figure of £xxx. We agreed it would be paid back after a couple of months. +The reason for the loan was because he was having cashflow problems. So, me being my good self thought this was a generous & kind thing to do, and would help him out.... + +Well it's now fast approaching the end of October and he's still not paid me back. I've asked 6 times all in all for him to kindly reimburse me which started after 2 months of the initial lending date. + +The frustrating thing is he has been flush with cash for months, and this is apparent as he's taken numerous family holidays, purchased a new car, now has a gardener and cleaner, even a new gaming laptop! + +My question is- what is the best way of getting this loaned money back? +Sigh, the good ole days. + +The sub has changed. The majority of us our zen. Up a little, down a little. Nothing. The shorts have lost their bet and the losses are infinite. Writhe as they may to avoid impending doom, the game is done and coming to an end. + +Enjoy this moment now because, as frustrating as it may be, you will never be here again. Life is about to change. So invite it in, but don’t forget what brought you here. Sure you might have a “better” tomorrow, but it’s all relative and today, this moment right in front of you is yours to enjoy. Here. Now. +[https://reason.com/2021/10/12/new-york-city-considers-requiring-landlords-to-provide-free-internet-to-tenants/#comments](https://reason.com/2021/10/12/new-york-city-considers-requiring-landlords-to-provide-free-internet-to-tenants/#comments) + +The war on landlords continues...I wonder if any of these people who write these laws were ever actual business owners. Do they just think every landlord is swimming in cash? +[Ignore the open pos, it's a bug ](https://preview.redd.it/lq9bm3gei4r71.png?width=420&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bd71902761c023b20983607efe284760af20215) + +A lot of people on my last post thought I was naked these calls, I'm not. That's WSB level retarded. + +These are covered calls, Originally started with 1200 shares and have grown it to 1900 selling covered calls and buying calls during run ups. + +A lot of people wonder why I sell 1 DTE Weeklies instead of 30-45 DTE expiries and it's mainly due to the risk. The difference in return on capital between weeklies and 30-45 DTE expiries are quite large, I only make about 2-4% ROC with weeklies, and with 30-45DTE I make about 10-15% which is huge on a 6 figure portfolio but I have to factor in risk. + +GME can rip at any moment and the weeklies closer to expiry have more volume and liquidity. + +Also, another note is that every week if you check what max pain is GME 98% of the time either closes slightly above, at, or below max pain, and it's consistent every week unless there are outside factors. + +I've been selling CC since Feb when I opened my position after the big dip. The only times I don't sell CC is earnings week, or during u/criands [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pb22oj/the_puzzle_pieces_of_quarterly_movements_equity/) on futures expiries or any other potential news that might be coming out. + +Other than that CC all day long, and if you're asking why I don't sell earlier in the week, go look at a weekly chart of GME, there are huge fucking moves every week and my risk tolerance only goes so far selling 1 DTE gives me more advantages because of Theta. +After months of cryptic twitter posts and near silence, it would be great to hear Ryan Cohen's thoughts on how he plans to move the company forward as chairman. + +This would also enable the 300 million shareholders to all attend the meeting without having to be physically present! We know Berkshire streamed theirs and to be honest, those are ROOKIE NUMBERS. + +Ryan, we know you lurk here. Give us all the opportunity to attend a meeting we wish we were at! +I've been hodling ETH since it was $15 a pop, until... + +I sold all my ETH a few weeks ago, unfortunately at a dip of $245. I still made a profit, and it helped me make the down payment on a house! + +Now that all my finances are back in order, I own a house, and that ETH is about where I sold at, I have bought back in. Nowhere near as much as I had invested at first, but enough. + +I truly believe in this technology. Yes, I am concerned about scam ICOs and the bitcoin fork and difficulties with Proof of Stake. But Ethereum is here to stay, and I'm here for the long haul. + +Glad to be back, guys. +Hey, I am a newbie and got to know about future trading 2 months ago. I was mainly using indicators and got to know about price action recently so have started to learn that. + +Could you recommended how I can become a professional day trader , what all things I can learn and any place to learn from like any YouTube /book/ site/ course , and some communities to join on telegram/Twitter/discord . + +I'm thinking of trading forex mainly but don't know much about that, + +Also what is there in trading except futures. + +Some YT channels I know +Joel on crypto , The Moving Average , Day Trading Addict, TradeIQ, babypips + +I'm thinking of learning Fibonacci next and want to know what other topics are there like price action and fibb + + +Thank you😊 +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE +Wednesday, January 24, 2018 + +Weiss Ratings Issues First-Ever Rating Agency Grades on 74 Cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin Gets C+ (“Fair”). Ethereum Is B (“Good”). +PALM BEACH GARDENS, FL — Weiss Ratings, the nation’s leading independent rating agency of financial institutions, releases today the nation’s first-ever grades on cryptocurrencies by a financial rating agency. Weiss gives Bitcoin a C+ (meaning “fair”) and Ethereum a B (“good”). None of the cryptocurrencies covered currently get a grade of A (“excellent”). In total Weiss currently covers 74 cryptocurrencies. + +A grade of A or B can also be interpreted as the investment rating equivalent of “buy.” At the same time, investors should not be overly alarmed by a C rating. It is a passing grade, and for investors, implies the equivalent of “hold.” Grades of D” and E” are the equivalent of “sell.” However, investment decisions should not be made solely based on ratings. They are meant as a tool in the context of a broader risk management strategy. + +What makes Weiss’ entry into cryptocurrency ratings significant is its history of independence and accuracy in other investment sectors, as noted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times, among others. + +“Despite extreme price volatility, cryptocurrencies have a bright future and the potential to deliver unusually large profits to investors,” said Weiss Ratings founder Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. “However, the market is hectic and confusing for investors. They need the clarity that only robust, impartial ratings can provide.” + +The Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings evaluate price risk, reward potential, blockchain technology, adoption, security, and other factors. “Due to rapid changes in the data,” explains Weiss, “upgrades and downgrades are more frequent than in other sectors we cover.” + +Below is a sampling of Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings, selected randomly to illustrate a variety of strengths and weaknesses: + +Bitcoin (rated C+) gets excellent scores for security and widespread adoption. But it is encountering major network bottlenecks, causing delays and high transactions costs. Despite intense ongoing efforts that are achieving some initial success, Bitcoin has no immediate mechanism for promptly upgrading its software code. +Ethereum (B), the second most widely adopted cryptocurrency, benefits from more readily upgradable technology and better speed, despite some bottlenecks. +Novacoin (D) and SaluS (D) are weak in terms of both technological innovation and adoption. +Steem (B-) enjoys a relatively good balance of moderate strength in nearly all the key factors considered along with a social network feature. +“All else being equal, as a cryptocurrency overcomes its individual challenges, it’s likely to be upgraded promptly,” Weiss adds. + +Weiss Ratings, which began in 1971, rates 55,000 institutions and investments. Unlike Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch and A.M. Best, Weiss never accepts compensation of any kind from the entities it rates. + +To purchase the full list plus weekly updates, including all upgrades and downgrades, go here. +I'm learning forex for 10 months now, started live trading at the start of April, I started with 100e didn't blow any accounts I'm in profit altho it's only 200e profit over the last 5 month. + +I used to spend 10h a day learning forex, now I took it down to 5-6h a day, because I feel like I've watched so many videos everything sounds the same, but the more I watch n learn the less I feel like I know about forex.. + +I see a video and I know why they put their support n resistance levels where they put it, I know why they enter at that specific place, but once I get to my charts it all seems complicated and as if I just dunno what's goin on.. then again when I don't place a trade the trades go my way alot of the times, but when I do place a trade most times it goes the opposite way + +Any help or advice would be greatly appreciated. +We understand that tempers are rising due to actions that Robinhood and other brokerages have taken to interfere in the market in regards to GME and other high volatility stocks. The subreddit has been seeing a large uptick in low-quality posts and comments over the past few days featuring gain/loss screenshots, calls for boycotts & petitions, and various other things that do not belong on /r/thetagang proper. + +In order to contain some of this, feel free to post in this thread about your grievances and how your thetagang positions have been affected. This is not an open invitation to turn this thread into WSB part deux and we will continue to take appropriate actions against posts and comments that do not belong on this subreddit. Be thoughtful about your actions and continue to make this a great community. + +I will un-sticky this thread on the 5th of February unless its continued existence is still warranted. +My 2 cents.. Best way to learn the stock market and become efficient and proficient is to be hands on.. Skip the advertising lessons you see allover and those so called “I made millions doing this or I turned pennies into riches”... You should frown upon them. + +Want to get good at stock market investing and trading? Be hands on. Learn as you go. You loose money, probably a lot of money, but you gain a lot of knowledge. You can mentally structure those loses into as a cost for “Self Taught Knowledge”.. Those loses are investments. They are not losses. Why? Well that money was destined to go somewhere. Either to daily cheeseburgers or someone rip-off instructors.. + +Instead you will be giving it to a market as a loan, knowing sooner or later, you are going to be getting it back with interest at a far higher rate than ever. + +Now when you start earning profits from your mistakes, guess what, your head is going to go really up high. Why? You now have pride in achieving 2 major things: + +1: Self Taught Skills +2: Earn Money-making + +You and your mistakes are your biggest instructors and your greatest inspiration, and should be your highest motivation. + +Keep on riding. + +-Cheers +✌🏼 +Hello, dear apes. Beard bet guy here with the urgent update (not fin advice). + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# 0. Intro + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Yes, I know, it’s been ‘a couple of months’ already and it’s time for me to accept my transition from Thor with a nordic beard and “L’Oreal shampoo commercial”-like hair into the ‘bald guy from Brazzers’. To be honest, I’m ready to do that, and I do plan to cover this small FTD of mine not later than in a week, provided… + +&#x200B; + +GME doesn’t moon starting as of today/tomorow (of which I’m sure it will)! Why the hell am I so confident about it? + +The key is [cycles](https://imgur.com/a/2PRxPQT), and particularly, how those are interpreted. Many of the honorable superstonkers have built complex theories about cycles based on FTDs primarily, the almighty Criand explored futures settlement, or for example Daily TA Pickle has T+69/ETF quarterlies formulas which I have also been following. The thing is, in my opinion, that we have been looking at the form of hedgies fuckery, and not its substance/ their intentions. The good news is, according to my interpretation of cycles, the shorters dickinsons have ran out of bullets yesterday (and DRS seems to have contributed to that immensely), which led them into the Ouroboros trap. There is only one exit from this trap, and it’s not on planet Earth. 🐻 with me, and I'll explain why I'm expecting violent bullish price action and Wen Moon’s soon second coming staring as of today! + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# 1. Roses are red, fuckery is not everlasting + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Everyone here should remember u/Criand’s brilliant [TRSwaps DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pb22oj/the_puzzle_pieces_of_quarterly_movements_equity/), where he backtracked the cycles and identified the relevance of futures’ rollovers for the cyclical bullruns throughout the year. And even though apes were expecting significant bullish price action in the beginning of September, the hedgies once again managed to play against the retail crowd expectations, using variety of tricks available to them. Let me put a relevant comment which u/_atworkdontsendnudes left under u/MauerAstronaut’s DD on Variance Swaps (another fascinating reading, give it a try): + +https://preview.redd.it/vivxoxhmd6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=24d00139d510db6e21cfe3d2b0511c59eb288c21 + +Exactly! Those fuckery loving financial wizards engineers have too many instruments at their disposal which allowed them kicking the can down the road. Furthermore, in my opinion, while diving deep into in-depth financial constructs (which is cool and educating - my favorite leisure since Jan), apes neglected the most important factor which has been floating on the surface all this time - the **price action** and the **market participants’ psychology** underpinning it. While OTM puts, TRSs, ETFs shorting, etc. constitute the form of the fuckery, the price suppression is its substance. Shorters dickinsons have been manipulating broader market sentiment on GME through psychological cycles, which have been contracting to the point of no return. I'll illustrate that through my cycle count later. + +&#x200B; + +For now, let me say it straight. There are only two major things that I’m certain about GME’s price action. + +&#x200B; + +1. The price is wrong, bitch! +2. The cyclical price action which we have been observing since January must have been taken from the book ‘Market Psychology for Dummies’. +3. DRS is the way. +4. Hedgies r fuk. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# 2. Hedgies only want one thing, and it’s fucking disgusting + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Really, when I identified all of the structures below a couple of days ago, I just thought why didn’t I notice all those patterns and fractals earlier. Those are freaking obvious even for a five year old, and are gniwolb gnikcuf dmin. We were looking at the cycles through the false prism this whole time! + +Without further ado, let’s get straight to the business, starting from: + +[GME hourly chart, November 2021 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/jdqpdksed6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca14ad247eaa03f55cb43d8ab58699a9bdcf7cf2) + +This is where my discovery originated. As many of you did too, I observed the early Nov bullrun, playing with the chart and TA. I swear, I have seen this pattern so many times on GME this year, so I decided to dive deeper. Notice anything? + +&#x200B; + +Okay, I’ll tell you what you are looking at: + +[Taken from the book ‘Market Psychology for Dummies’, hehe](https://preview.redd.it/3d81mgsbd6081.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eff897aac37cf629eb14f4e277d9cd80f2a684f3) + +What you see above is the explanation of the emotional cycle which market participants (primarily unsophisticated ones) go through during a typical market cycle. This basic emotional pattern described above seems to be the root of the hedgies algo, which they use for the price suppression. Yes, the financial derivatives and complex fin-engineering constructs are their tools, but the market sentiment control is their main objective. And that’s understandable, as Jan events and the global retail GME obsession scared the shit out of them. The GG report showed us that the shorters dickinsons were not covering in January, and the sneeze was primarily caused by the retail buying pressure. And where did the retail buying pressure come from? That’s right, it was building up on the global retail hype, which, in turn, was caused by quadruple digit % price increase. The attention of the broader retail investors circles is the hedgies Kryptonite. Even though lately that attention has been pulverized elsewhere (SPY, creeptoe ATHs), GME cycles and its contraction indicate that RIP (Dumbass) is just around the corner, and that DIP machine is broken. Let’s take a closer look and analyze the psychological cycle via the November price action. + +&#x200B; + +***Apes, meet Cycle 2*** + +[GME hourly chart, \(the first half of\) November 2021 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/ta2lb1lyc6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=48bcfb900aa3cd8fb6ed5d5a59946c06c566f333) + +Please refer to GME hourly chart above, and pay attention to the following factors which are relevant for all of the examples discussed further: + +&#x200B; + +1. The ‘positive’, growth phase of the cycle takes up no more than 10 percent of the cycle as a whole (timewise). Those rapid, sharp runs are intensive and short-lived, which enables hedgiesrfuks adjusting their positions in a very precise and careful manner, avoiding broader retail investors circles’ FOMO, and going through optimism to euphoria stages with the speed of lightning. +2. Even if the bullrun caught investors’ attention, the rug is usually pulled violently, and the newcomers buyers are shaken out. This is where the ‘anxiety’ stage kicks in. +3. Then there is hedgies’ favorite stage: flat titties W-shaped consolidation, which covers all of the stages up to ‘depression’, and makes the financial asset unattractive. + +&#x200B; + +Let me ask you a simple question: would you invest in the asset that has its price declining/staying flat up to 90% of time? That’s how they kill the buy side. And with the latest options talk, how do you think the options perform through this type of cycle with nasty theta decay? [Bad](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qvm5zd/i_lost_100k_on_gme_options_because_i_bag_held/). + +Hedgies only want two things (pulling the rug and flat titties) and it’s fucking disgusting. Okay, I think you got the point. This very simple psychology based price action pattern is their main weapon, which allowed them to keep status quo throughout 2021. I used past simple for ‘allowed’ because the hedfucks seem to be no longer in control, let me explain why and let’s count the cycles. + +Take a brief look at red/magenta/dark-pink (dafaq is this Crayon?) November cycle numbered 2 above. Two is its number in the sequence of cycles (7-6-5-4-3-2-1 - and yes, its the FINAL COUNTDOWN), I’ll keep number 1 for myself for a bit and we’ll come back to it later in the analysis, but you should be able to see its first (light purple) impulse wave on the chart above. **Cycle 2** lasted for about two weeks (**Nov 1 - Nov 15**). + +&#x200B; + +***Zoom out, rewind: Cycle 3*** + +[GME 4H chart, August 24 - October 30 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/ow9n6kc7c6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=132ca51b023feb21e6deac99a9ec0311c66ff796) + +The orange cycle, 4H chart is the most appropriate timeframe for this one. Refer to the previous example (2) if you would like to go through the stages in-depth again and apply those here. Basically, it goes like impulse>fuckery>correction>relief uptrend>W-consolidation. **Cycle 3** lasted for about *two months* (**Aug 24 - Oct 30**) or 69 days exactly (noice!). + +The most important factor that should be mentioned, is that DRS really took off in the first half of this cycle, in the middle of September and as you will see in the examples that follow - preceding **Cycle 4** (green) and **Cycle 5** (light blue), are when they managed to kick the can down the road in the most efficient way; each had the duration of three months, and the orange **Cycle 3** was the one to break this duration sequence. Coincidence? I think not, DRS is the way. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +***Zoom out, rewind: Cycle 4*** + +[GME daily chart, May 25 - August 23 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/067xcn6vb6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1539d31734fefbbb582edff17e63a87d9a4e1dba) + +The green cycle with the second most severe correction phase (guess which cycle had the most violent correction phase?). The cycle is also the longest (**May 25 - Aug 23**), lasted for about *three months*. + +&#x200B; + +***Rewind: Cycle 5*** + +[GME daily chart, February 24 - May 24 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/ckrv9dxlb6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1fa2009d014d1be27b92d20490753043f7faf39a) + +The light-blue cycle is the second longest. Lasted for *three months* exactly (**Feb 24 - May 24**). + +&#x200B; + +***Zoom in, Rewind: Cycle 6 (January Sneeze)*** + +[GME hourly chart, January 21 - February 24 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/kzhl277eb6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aee26a5995c3e6a2372169612f3a076296bbedb8) + +The apes remember. The blue cycle. + +Let’s pause here for a second, and have a minute of silence for hedgies, because they r utterly fuk. + +Thank you, let’s continue. + +&#x200B; + +***Zoom out: Cycles combined, the bigger picture*** + +[GME daily chart, January 21 - November 17 price action. Simulation confirmed.](https://preview.redd.it/gbm5mf76b6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0ac79c45e4767fcc1e21ed9079bea18da6b033da) + +The pattern that is observable on every cycle (10% impulsive growth while readjusting shorts and 90% downtrend/flat trend) is designed to mess with the psychology of the broader retail investors circles, keeping them away from investing in the asset and controlling the buying pressure. + +Looking back at all the cycles, there are several conclusions to be made based on the analysis. First, consider this sequence: one month (cycle 6) - three months (cycle 5) - three months (cycle 4) - two months (cycle 3) - two weeks (cycle 2). The fifth and the fourth cycles were the perfect, comfy zones for shorters dickinsons to kick the can down the road (through FTDs, ETFs shorting, DOOMPs, etc.), decay theta, and make GME unattractive as an investment vehicle forcing the flat trend while other assets were flourishing and reaching for ATHs. The orange cycle, in its turn, is where they see a middle finger from the retail in the form of DRS, and the duration of the cycle reflects hedgies’ pain (retail took their toys away from them): the fuckery’s duration is cut by a third. BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! The red cycle (2), which started in November, lasted only for two weeks! In my opinion, this radical cycles contraction is largely due to DRS, and an extremely vivid indication of the fact that DRS is working, and it’s working right now, forcing hedgies’ algos into the singularity point of no return. + +&#x200B; + +***Zoom out: Cycle 7 (Long Term)*** + +[GME weekly chart, January 21 - November 17 price action. Confirmation simulated.](https://preview.redd.it/wxuei4r1b6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f5632f28fdf0a6013640876a55e56d11c68a8d6) + +Speaking of points of no return, take a look how GME competed exactly the same cycle on the weekly chart, and it is composed of the shorter term cycles, making Xzibit really proud. There is so much pressure on GME charts, on every level of it, it feels fucking nuclear. The best part about it all, is that the explosion is TODAY! + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# III. The Ouroboros has bitten its tail + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Finally, **Cycle 1**! This is the moment for apes to ooh aah ooh aah, because it fucking started! The MOASS started while I’m finishing this post! Just like the cycles predicted. + +[GME 5 minutes chart, November 15 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/cu76r11sa6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=35580f48d5bd88225a440267286419406dd760e1) + +So, remember the cliff hanger about **Cycle 1** that I left in the beginning of the post? This is it! **Cycle 2** took two weeks to finish, cycle one only needed one day! + +Just like **Cycle 0** yesterday: + +[GME 5 minutes chart, November 16 price action.](https://preview.redd.it/m5lpw8gka6081.jpg?width=2388&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=794bf9f04a6597e1f0dfb68e5a1cbe9d838afa2f) + +It was yesterday, when Ouroboros has bitten its tail. Today’s price action is the MOASS unveiling. + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR: hedgies r fuk, as apes forced them into the point of singularity with DRS, and looped the cycles hedgies used for psychological warfare against the retail and the Stonk. The explosion you are observing today is highly likely the consequence of DRS and the beginning of MOASS, as hedgies ran out of bullets and resources to short the Superstonk.** +Fellow money-loving apes. Remember the last time you saw a coin and thought “damn, why couldn’t i have seen that a week ago”...good news. THIS IS THAT TIME. This coin is still in early days and there are huge things to come. I watched it for a bit and realized i couldn’t wait any longer. I joined the telegram community and realized that this is the real deal. This is not a pump and dump shitcoin. There are long term plans listed on the website that could really change the game here. Don’t like your job? Chill at the bonfire and you don’t have to go to work anymore (eventually). + +But seriously, the top 10 holders have less than 13% of the coins which is massive. The 10% fee acts as a cushion and i have been accumulating hella coins from the 5% from every buy and sell. I put all my safemoon into bonfire and that could be a top 3 decision of my life. ( idk the other two 🤷🏽‍♂️) + +This isn’t like the other coins. The tokenomics, the low marketcap, the marketing, the active and positive community - all signs of a genuinely good deal that IF YOU ARE READING THIS, IT’S NOT TOO LATE. you’re actually early and the obvious decision is to warm yourself at the bonfire...on the moon. + +TL;DR: https://www.bonfiretoken.co/ + +Peep the roadmap on the website. Listen to the AMA (https://youtu.be/mDGU00LkjNo) and all doubts will be eliminated. + +Most important about this: HODL. i have made billions of free tokens just from holding. The price right now is an incredible value and i don’t think we will see this price again. Bonfire won SatoshiStreetBets Moonshot Monday proving the committed community and the only direction this is going is...🌙🌙🌙 +Since the birth of Superstonk 16 months ago, not 1 single MSM outlet has spoken about us. +Never has there been a mention of an online community with 800k+ individual investors scattered across the globe, who’s one and only focus is GME. That in itself should be a huge story, the very fact we have grown so big is unprecedented. + +More than 180k indivual investors have DRS’d more than half of the free float, another feat that has never been achieved before. Yet once again, we’re met with crickets. + + +The very fact they have completely ignored us and don’t want to draw attention to what’s happening speaks louder than anything that we’re winning. It’s a classic example of trying to prevent the Streisand effect. They saw what happened when MSM reported on the sneeze, it triggered a massive FOMO wave. + +This is the Revolution, and as Gil Scott-Heron sang, it will not be televised. + +Keep buy’n, keep DRS’n 🚀🚀🚀🚀 +Made in 2003, you could buy digital land, sell resources, clothing for avatars, etc. It made a few millionaires from selling avatar customizations. It even opened up a world to crazy virtual sex stuff and gambling... + +But that place had it's limits and it's easy to lose interest unless you're super invested. Which is a similar issue for VR and mixed reality. When you strap anything to a person's face, it seems to lose appeal and novelty. + + +So with that and taking some serious reflection. I am pulling all my share out of Meta and leaving my exposure to Meta via indexes only. I personally don't have the confidence that this will be more than a passing fad. VR and mixed reality may have enterprise use, but that feels more like MSFT is doing a better job of that. +I contacted TW to see if they'd match my negotiated rate for TDA. Here's what the chat response was: + +>Hello and welcome to tastyworks. we cannot match their rate (did not know that they have a capped commission schedule). I know that they have been down for the last 2 days (off and on) so I guess the better question would be do the rates matter if you cannot access your account? +So I was wondering how a naive approach of buying 'value' would fare 1y, 3y, 5y after purchase. I 'bought' 287 stocks that happened to trade below 1.5x book value, or below 10x average trailing earnings in May 2015, and then compared the adjusted share price to what it was in 2016, 2018 and (early February pre-covid) 2020. + +You can see a chart of the results [here](https://i.postimg.cc/L6vP4Hrg/file.png) (sub doesn't allow images but it's easier to visualize) + +And the numbers are here, read "10% of companies went down to 61.2% of original value, or lower, in 1 year, 25% went to 85.2% or lower in 1 year, 50% stayed about the same in price or went lower in 1 year" and so on. + +Also you can read it as follows, in year 1, if you picked one stock randomly, it was a coin flip whether you made more or less than the original investment; in year 3, it was a coin flip whether you made more or less than 1.3x your original investment, year 5, coin flip whether more or less than 1.5x. + +&#x200B; + +>Year 1 +> +>10% 25% 50% 75% 90% +> +>0.612 0.852 1.022 1.143 1.285 +> +>Average return = 0.99x + +&#x200B; + +>Year 3 +> +>10% 25% 50% 75% 90% +> +>0.751 1.139 1.331 1.618 1.938 +> +>Average return = 1.39x + +&#x200B; + +>Year 5 +> +>10% 25% 50% 75% 90% +> +>0.683 1.140 1.565 1.870 2.467 +> +>Average return = 1.56x + +&#x200B; + +Over 5 years the performance of the S&P500 was 1.57x + +**tl;dr buying moderately cheap stocks is not enough for good results, by itself** + +**caveat: past performance is no guarantee of similar future performance** + + +EDIT: I just wanted this post to show that looking at simple ratios such as PE and PB is not enough to beat the market, at least it wasn't over the period I looked at. This is an error I've seen beginner value investors make. +I heard about BTC and crypto years before. Some guy from Romania wanted to give me some BTC for some DOTA 2 beta keys I owned back in 2011. He posted the offer in PlayDotA and I shrugged it off because it was a big jargon for me back then. Ethereum however, I got acquainted with ETH and the initial feelings I had for it was hate. I was trying to build my dream PC back in April and I had so much trouble finding AMD RX 480 due to the mining craze. I had to go to the computer center really early every day to get a GPU only to find out that the shipment for the day were all pre-purchased by Chinese expats here in the Philippines. + +I read about BTC, ETH, and the cryptocurrency in general and I found the idea of ETH revolutionary. I swore that once we have the local exchanges here open ETH, I'll immediately buy and join the ETH community. It was announced that during November, one of our local crypto wallets (ABRA) added support for ETH and I was finally able to purchase ETH with my 13th month pay (Christmas bonus). I was able to purchase 0.33853342 of ETH at PHP 22,041 (USD 460). I was into the HODL stuff until I called my mother yesterday on Christmas day. + +My mother was diagnosed with stroke 2 years ago which made me quit my undergrad course and work in a call center. I had an arrangement with the hospital to pay all the expenses in 3 years after a month-long negotiation with the board. My mother was essentially on a one-month hospital arrest back in 2015. Yesterday's phone call however, she said that she is very excited with me being home for the New Year celebration. She said that this could possibly be our last New Year's eve together due to the complications brought by the stroke. She also asked me if I could fulfill her lifelong dream of being able to board an airplane and experience flying. This crushed my heart and that was when I decided to cash out my ETH balance today before I go home tomorrow. Thanks to ETH, I would be able to have her nails and hair done before we board that plane to Baguio City. The journey with ETH could be short, but it was worth it. My moon is taking my mom to the sky. + +Happy New Year r/ethtrader and keep HODLING! + +Edit: Woah just woke up to prepare for work and this exploded! Thanks for the gold and the ETH donations! I just checked my ETH wallet and there is 0.226710 there now. I'm almost back to my stack and I'm in tears. I'll be on my way to our province right after work and it is a 12 hr ride. Will be posting pics of my mom after her salon treatment! +This is the infinite money glitch as I see it, explained for 🦧retard apes like me. + +[Thanks to Criand's explanation of how SFTs facilitate the reseting of FTDs.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/opuziu/visual_of_the_sft_trades_to_prevent_shorts_andor/) + +The basic premise is that mommy and daddy both balance their books, but mommy and daddy don't talk to one another, so you can scam the system by kicking the can between them. If you can reset an FTD (failure to deliver), you can make infinite money from nothing. + +👩Mommy = Market Makers + +👴Daddy = DTCC (Clearing house) + +😈Child = Hedgefunds (aka dirty fucking assholes) + +🍌GME Shares + +When 😈SHFs sell a 🍌share they don't have, 👴daddy basically gives them a month to locate it or else they label it a FTD and it becomes belt whooping time. + +>*Child, ya can't sell a promise. Go make good on that promise or I'll bend you over and beat ya raw* + +Well, the 😈 did sell that promise. Sold it for 💲. And for a whole month, the 😈 SHF is walking around with pockets full of 💲 all for doing nothing! But the month is coming to a close, and 👴daddy is begining to reach for the belt. + +Well 😈 has never had any 🍌to sell and can't find any, so he goes to 👩 mommy. + +>*What's that? You spent your allowance already? You need some 🍌to go buy ice cream? You promise you'll pay it back? Oh, don't worry honey, mommy loves you.* + +👩Mommy 'poofs' an imaginary 🍌share into existance and gives it to the 😈 SHF. That's what mommy is for, to smooth things out between allowances. But don't be fooled, mommy isn't a pushover, it's not a gift and she wants that 🍌share back soon. She's raising a responsible little child and won't let them run a debt. + +Well the 😈 SHF takes that 🍌and gives it to 👴daddy. Daddy checks it off. It took a month but their child sold a 🍌 and they delivered a 🍌. 👴is proud of their honest child. But here's the thing - 👴Daddy DTCC can't tell the difference between a real 🍌 and an imaginary fake one that 👩Mommy Market Maker created. ***They look the same to him.*** + +Well now all 😈has to do is make mommy happy. He goes into a dark spot on the playground and buys a 🍌from another 😈 friend of theirs using his 💲 from his sold 🍌. It isn't a *real* 🍌 they are buying (their friend is running a scam too) but the fake share will fool mommy. + +And so 😈 takes that 🍌and gives it back to 👩Mommy. Mommy is so proud of their child. She 'poofs' that 🍌out of existance, and zeros out the loan. But here's the thing. That banana was *sold* but hasn't cleared the other 😈's Daddy yet. Mommy can't tell the difference between a real 🍌and one that hasn't been located and settled with 👴Daddy DTCC yet. ***They look the same to her.*** + +Mommy and Daddy don't talk to each other. + +\------------------- + +Wait you say, but the 😈 didn't make any money! He kicked the can back and forth between the DTCC and a Market Maker (like Citadel), but what's the point?? He sold a 🍌for 💲 ... but a month later he just spent a 💲 for a 🍌so nothing changed in the end!! + +Well, for **29 days** 😈had a pocket full of 💲. And for **one day** his pocket was empty. If they naked short sold 1x🍌 each day, then every single day of the month, their pocket would have 29x💲 in it. Their pocket would ALWAYS be full. + +Maybe they take 1x💲 out of their pocket to buy a 🚢 yaht with. No big deal. Each day they only need a single 💲 to reset that day's scam, and after reseting the just naked shot again and get the single 💲back! And they still have 💲x28 left! Let's buy some 🚢🚢🚢s! + +And you know what, this works so well, I think I'm going to start naked short selling 2x🍌🍌 every day now. **Infinite money glitch**. All because 👩Mommy Market Maker and 👴Daddy DTCC can't recognize each other's fake temporary asset from a real one. + +That's the beauty of this. The DTCC has a system to prevent naked short selling, and Market Makers also have a system, BUT ONLY IN ISOLATION. If you can kick it back and forth between them, because you have a month before FTD, you can pocket the spread *in time*. +A recent freakonomics podcast cites a study that links an early retirement and cognitive decline: + +[https://freakonomics.com/podcast/am-i-boring-you-a-new-freakonomics-radio-episode/](https://freakonomics.com/podcast/am-i-boring-you-a-new-freakonomics-radio-episode/) + +Researchers hypothesize that the lack of everyday mental exercise (at work) leads to the atrophy of our "brain muscles". While the study is correlational, the authors are "fairly confident" that this effect is causal. + +How do you exercise your mind, dear fellow retirees? +Before I speak I want to say that I do believe in the MOASS and am fairly confident it will happen but do you know what gives me more FUD than any shills or doubters? + +- When conspiracy theorist QAnon-level shit gets massively upvoted on to the front page, for an example the 5.13.21 DFV tweet that everyone seems to take on gospel even though its a smash brother's clip that has been famous on the internet for literally over a decade. Don't even get me started on how the fuck would DFV know to begin with. + +- When anyone with doubts or uncertainties is automatically downvoted out of this world and called shill/fud. + +- When you have blatantly incorrect claims and DDs up that have been proven incorrect and all the OP does is ignore it, confusing everyone and giving them false hope. for example https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n7byxy/holy_hell_rule_nscc2021006_shows_up_to_save_the/ + +- Or alternatively for example when people bring up old findings that are dated to december, for example https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n7g5gp/citadel_securities_has_over_57500000000_in_open/, as if its something new. Picking on this post isn't quite fair because there is actual DD there outside of the beginning statement, but reading the beginning makes it seem like a bombshell has been found when this file has been circulating forever and there is no new information in it. It is inspiring false hope in people. + + +Now imagine you are trying to get a new ape involved in GME, you send him links to the dd and he starts reading and thinking wow this makes a lot of sense, I do see a possibility in this etc etc. Do you know what the next move is? He is probably going to click on the front page of the subreddit and see the extreme levels of shit tier posts going on and be turned off. Perhaps the fucking squeeze would have taken off already if every new investor wasn't immediately turned off by some of the shit on the sub. + +You have people acting as if they've already won when we don't even know if the SHFs are even still short 100%. Maybe they pulled some bullshit out of their arse and got out of it, how the fuck should we know? the data is not transparent and we are betting against some of the biggest money in the world. If the squeeze somehow doesn't happen I seriously worry about the people in this subreddit that have had their hopes pumped up that they get to be the 1% going long on $ROPE. + + +All that being said, I am a believer in the MOASS only because there has been too much smoke and where there is smoke there is fire. All I am asking for is stricter moderation to make this place seem less like a QAnon cult. The memes are fine but linking everything in the world to GME in some distorted theory makes everyone else seem like an idiot. + +Anyway, that's my rant. BUY. HODL. VOTE. +Hi guys. So my sister just received 100K from an accident claim. She has now in total a little over 150K. I have saved up 70K. I come from a poor family and no one has ever invested in anything before so I want to make sure I don’t mess this up. + +I’m not sure what we should buy together. We were thinking a duplex with at least 4 units where we can each take a unit and rent the other two units out. However this would cost around $800K-1mil in BC where we live. The down payment would be 20% so around $160K…which leaves us with barely anything… I talked to the bank about an FHA loan but he said that’s unlikely considering our annual income (40K each a year) and our current job status. (Not full time). + +Anyways, I live in Canada, houses start at around 700K here. Especially in BC. I could potentially purchase a place in Poland and rent it out as an investment but we are moving out of our current home and need a place to live anyways. Any advice on what you would do in my case? Or things I should consider? +Looks like a record fine for JPMorgan Chase who is accused of manipulating the precious metals and treasuries markets. + + +"The order finds that, from at least 2008 through 2016, JPM, through numerous traders on its precious metals and Treasuries trading desks, including the heads of both desks, placed hundreds of thousands of orders to buy or sell certain gold, silver, platinum, palladium, Treasury note, and Treasury bond futures contracts with the intent to cancel those orders prior to execution. Through these spoof orders, the traders intentionally sent false signals of supply or demand designed to deceive market participants into executing against other orders they wanted filled. According to the order, in many instances, JPM traders acted with the intent to manipulate market prices and ultimately did cause artificial prices." + +Sources: + +https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8260-20 + +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/jpmorgan-chase-to-pay-920-million-to-resolve-us-investigations-into-trading-practices-.html +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +What are others doing to achieve hyper-growth? + +I started in Dec 2019 and am now up to 3.9k a month in pure cash flow. Need to get to $10k before I think of quitting if at all and gunning for it by the end of this year + +The idea is not to quit working but to dethrone money and get the freedom of time to work on your hobbies/interests. I am hoping there are some who have this same goal. If you want to keep working that's still fair! + +Also not looking for people to ask me about my health insurance plans etc if I do decide to make the jump. The post is about sharing growth tactics and learn from people who are doing it well. :) + +I am sharing my playbooks [here](https://rehacks.io) but am happy to give more specific answers. + +&#x200B; +What are others doing to achieve hyper-growth? + +I started in Dec 2019 and am now up to 3.9k a month in pure cash flow. Need to get to $10k before I think of quitting if at all and gunning for it by the end of this year + +The idea is not to quit working but to dethrone money and get the freedom of time to work on your hobbies/interests. I am hoping there are some who have this same goal. If you want to keep working that's still fair! + +Also not looking for people to ask me about my health insurance plans etc if I do decide to make the jump. The post is about sharing growth tactics and learn from people who are doing it well. :) + +I am sharing my playbooks [here](https://rehacks.io) but am happy to give more specific answers. + +&#x200B; +We are warmheartedly welcoming you to join us! Many, if not all, of us have been enthusiastic about bitcoin at some point of our lives. Nice to have you here! +\[This is a follow-up to: [https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/m2vklt/our\_agentpm\_purchased\_the\_property\_i\_asked\_him/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/m2vklt/our_agentpm_purchased_the_property_i_asked_him/) \] + +So I've churned in my mind whether to write this because it's a little awkward - you'll understand why in a second - but the OP received so many comments that I feel like you deserve a follow-up. I will probably create a new account after this \[edit: because this is Reddit after all, and I prefer to stay anonymous\]. + +A few days after the original post, I had a very interesting conversation, confronting our agent/PM about that property. He started the call by saying that they saw the post on Reddit and realized it was them and immediately gave us a notice of terminating our relationship, including property management. Awkward! Didn't expect that. + +He did not directly respond to my claims but instead pushed back and said they felt like we were not "spiritually aligned" anymore - because we did not trust them and because we had tried to negotiate our PM agreement. He also said that they have other, "easier clients", who just accept their terms. I'll let everyone decide for themselves what to make of it. + +I was nonetheless wrong about the exclusivity part. I misread the contract, and the exclusivity only applied to our first deal with them. Definitely my mistake and a word of caution to anyone else reading this. + +None of this changed my feeling and unease about being screened and learning they were bidding the property only after they had purchased it. I think that was in bad form and also dishonest, and it's for the better that we part ways. They're looking for passive investors who don't ask questions, and I'm looking to actively scale a business. We've since moved forward with another agent and closed on another property, so all for the best. + +I will say that the way he ended the relationship was professional: offered a few options to end the situation like reselling the property without a commission and recommended a couple of other PM companies in town, one of which we did go with, so I did respect that. + +\[Edit: grammar\] +[13f](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000156761921010281/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml) + +PROSHARES TR PSHS ULTSH 20YRS 74347B201 55,133 2,536,000 SH Call + +im thinking that you need to divide that 2.5m figure by 100? i think the way the report options on 13f is nominal of the underlying. if you take the 55M value divided by 2.5m shares that comes out to $21 which is about what TBT trades for so since these are options i imagine he actually has 25k options contracts on TBT? + +i think ive found which he bought, you can find a few in the chain OTM calls several months in the future with 1000s of open interest and looking at volume history can see a few spikes in places. + +i know this isnt a theta play, but this is the most active and sophisticated place to discuss investing on reddit, /r/options is empty /r/vegagang has less traffic than this and the other subs are either memes or noobies + +what do people think of this as inflation insurance? im in a lot of TQQQ so was thinking of buying some OTM calls on TBT as insurance + +TBT is at 18 today and you can get a breakeven of 21 or so on the 20c for jan 22, just a buck per contract with 40 delta. thoughts? + +if there is another better sub to have these discussions let me know + +Edit: I'm in, definitely not financial advice, but I grabbed 5x June '22 at 20c for 2.35 a pop. After the little rally it had at 1pm unfortunately... +As we head into winter, pretty much everyone in the UK is dealing with higher than ever energy bills, so I thought It might be helpful to throw this guide together on things you can do to cut the costs of your energy bills this winter. Here it is: + +&#x200B; + +**INTRO:** + +Unfortunately, energy bills are only going to rise in the coming months, and while the government's £400 energy grant does put a bit of a dent in it, there will still be a concerning amount left to pay for many people in the UK every month. + +One of the biggest ways in which people are overpaying for their energy bills is the unintentional, overuse of power. This is due to the fact that a surprisingly high amount of people don't know the 'kWh' of many household appliances, or how this number is calculated in the first place. So, let's start there: + +A Watt (W) is the unit of power by which electricity is measured. A Kilowatt (kW) is 1000 watts. So, one kilowatt hour (kWh) is the amount of energy you’d use if you kept a 1,000 watt (1kW) appliance running for an hour.  + +This is the standard billing unit for energy providers, so a key part of reducing your household energy bills is to start putting a real money value on the kWh of your most used household appliances. So, with respect to this advice, here are a few ways to seriously save on your energy costs every month: + +&#x200B; + +**HEATING THE HOME:** + +**PART ONE: THROW OUT THE FAN HEATER** + +Most of us are now paying around 34p per kWh, which means if an appliance has a rating of 1 kW, it costs 34p to keep it running for 1 hour. + +Put simply, humans need to stay warm when the weather is cold, this is probably the most obvious statement you'll read online today. However, what is less obvious to people is that the ways in which we choose to stay warm at home can mean the difference between paying £100-£200 more for your energy bills per month. + +I think for most people, it's obvious that some appliances cost more to run than others. However, I think the two main issues are that people don't think about the ways in which using more expensive appliances adds up over the course of 30 days, and also, common misconceptions about using certain electrical appliances to heat your home being cheaper than using the central heating. + +So, going back to the title: A regular fan heater that you buy in Argos will use 1 kW, or 2kW if you have it on the second heat setting. This means that if your energy rate is 34p /kWh, you will pay 34p to keep this running for an hour at 1kW, or 68p to keep it running for an hour at 2kW (the second heat setting on most fan heaters). + +An alarmingly high amount of people think that using a fan heater is cheaper than using the central heating, when in fact it can be up to 3 times more expensive than it would cost to power a radiator for an hour (Gas tariffs being around 10p/ kWh and assuming that a single radiator requires around 1.5kW to operate). + +&#x200B; + +**Looking at how this adds up over the course of a month:** + +Use of fan heater for 3 hours per day at 2kW = £2.04 + +For one week: £2.04 x 7 = £14.28 + +For 30 days: £2.04 x 30 = **£61.20** + +&#x200B; + +This is a ridiculously high cost for a single appliance, especially considering that many people choose to have both the central heating on and use fan heaters to heat individual rooms at the same time. + +This is where the alternatives come in, because as I said before, humans simply need to be warm when the weather is cold, **so** **it doesn't really matter how we achieve this, as long as we get it done.** With that being said, Here are some *much* cheaper ways to stay warm this winter: + +&#x200B; + +|**Method**|**Cost To Buy**|**Cost Per Hour (£/kWh)**| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Electric Blanket|£15-£45|3p| +|Hot Water Bottle|\~£5|6p| +|Heated Gilet|£13-£40|1p| +|Heated Gloves|£5-£10|1p| +|Footwarmer|£20-£40|3p| + +&#x200B; + +**ALSO:** + +**(1) Layer up.** Wear long sleeve thermals as your base layer, it goes a long way in conserving heat. They only cost around £6-8 and make such a difference. + +**(2) Use Extra Blankets:** If you find yourself at home during the day and feeling chilly, covering yourself in a blanket will often eliminate feeling the need to put the heating on. + +**(3) Go out for a walk:** Exercise helps warm us up. Bonus points if you go for a walk in the evenings when it's cooler, as you will appreciate the warmth inside your house more when you return. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**PART 2: GETTING THE MOST OUT OF YOUR CENTRAL HEATING:** + +So, when it comes to having the heating on in winter, the word 'inevitable' comes to mind. For this reason, It's crucial that you're getting the most out of your heating system. I think that 2 things, in particular, are essential in achieving this: + +**(1)** **EFFICIENCY** + +As mentioned above, it's really important that people understand how the standard units of energy are measured, and how their bills are calculated, in order to think of the way we use our heating in terms of real money. + +Going back to Watts, the standard unit of measurement for energy used by electrical appliances, it's important to note that 1 Watt = 1 Joule per second. So, 1kW = 1000 Joules per second. + +Heat energy is also measured in Joules, so from here we can see why our gas tariffs are given in kWh, since the amount of heat energy we use in Joules can easily be converted to kW. + +I know, this is starting to get a bit thermal physicsy, but bear with me... + +Once we realise that it requires more kW of energy to heat the water in our boilers to a higher temperature, it becomes apparent that if we were to lower the 'flow temperature' of our boilers (This is the temperature that the water is heated to in our boilers before it is sent off to the radiators in our homes) then this will require less energy, and ostensibly allow our boilers to operate more efficiently, and at a lower cost. Here's how: + +The most common type of boiler in the UK is known as a condensing boiler, since 2005, all boilers installed in the UK must be this type of boiler by law. + +Condensing boilers are very clever, in that they recycle the latent heat energy from water vapors that would have been lost through the flue (a pipe that carries exhaust gases produced by a boiler outside the home and releases it into the atmosphere) in older boilers. + +In order for these boilers to work closer to maximum efficiency, most energy companies recommend setting your flow temperature to around 60 degrees, with some even recommending this setting be as low as 50 degrees, if you have a newer home. + +The thing is, **many people in the UK have this setting very high**, often around 80 degrees or so, and not only can it end up costing you more money to operate your boiler at this high setting, it also compromises the efficiency of the boiler. + +The reason for this is that condensing boilers need to be able to, well, condense. The 'return temperature' (the temperature of the water when it returns to the boiler) plays a big role in this, because only at lower temperatures can condensation occur. Condensation needs to occur because when water vapor changes phase from vapor to liquid, the latent heat ( the heat energy required for the phase change to occur in the first place) is returned to the system. This heat energy being recycled means that less 'new energy' is needed to heat up the water in the system (See? Very clever). + +The maximum temperature before condensing will no longer occur is known as the dew point, and is usually around 55 degrees. If your flow temperature is around 60 degrees, then your return temperature should be around 40 degrees, which will allow the process of condensation to occur and increase the efficiency of the system. + +**In Summary:** A lower flow temperature can increase the efficiency of your heating system and help save you money. + +**NOTE:** Although condensing boilers are the most common type in the UK, there are many different boiler manufacturers. Before you decide to adjust your flow temperature, consult the manual of the make and model of your boiler to be sure you are adjusting the correct setting. There should be two temperature settings on your condensing combi boiler, one is for adjusting the flow temperature and the other is for adjusting the hot water temperature (the temperature of the water that comes out of your taps). It's also a good idea to research this topic yourself, as your home/heating system may benefit from different settings than others. + +**NOTE 2:** If you have a boiler and a hot water cylinder, then you should **not** reduce the flow temperature, because unlike combi boilers, these boilers only have one temperature setting for both hot water and heating. This is important because the water in the hot water tank needs to be kept at at least 60 degrees in order to prevent the danger of legionella bacteria. + +&#x200B; + +**(2) HEAT CONSERVATION:** + +As important as having your heating system running efficiently, is conserving as much of the produced heat as possible. There is a number of things you can do to achieve this, Here's how: + +&#x200B; + +**(1) Stop covering your radiators.** It may sound obvious, but so many of us do it. The worst offender is probably having closed curtains covering the top of your radiator, essentially ensuring that the hot air rises up and goes straight to the cold windows. Not good. + +You also don't want furniture blocking the radiators, even though a lot of heat is given out the top, you still want the heat from the front of the radiator to be able to go out into the room. + +Drying clothes/towels on the rad? Forget about it. You're literally blocking the heat from leaving the top of the rad, it's such a waste of energy. + +**(2) Draught Proof your windows:** This one sounds like a big job but it's actually very easy to do and can make such a difference. All you need to do is apply self-adhesive foam tape to a window frame. Draughts also occur in cracks between the window frames and the surrounding walls – it’s worth considering using sealant or putty in these. + +**(3) Use Draught Excluders:** Having a draught excluder for your front/back door will not only make your home feel warmer as less heat escapes and less cold air is let in, but can also help reduce heating costs. + +**(4) Keep doors closed:** Leaving doors open is the fastest way to allow heat to escape from a room. Be sure to keep doors shut in order to keep the rooms you are spending your time in warmer and cosier for longer. + +**(5) Thermal-lined curtains:** These are heavier curtains that help keep the heat in your rooms for longer and can certainly be a worthwhile investment for your sitting room or bedroom. + +**(6) Fill in the gaps in wood flooring/ Use large rugs:** You may notice that cold air comes up through the gaps in your wood flooring, so a worthwhile way to prevent this from happening is to fill in these gaps using some. floorboard gap filler. However, if you don't want to go to the trouble of doing that, using large rugs to cover your wooden floors can also be very effective. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**OTHER ENERGY COSTS:** + +&#x200B; + +**(1) SHOWERS:** + +The average electric shower in the UK operates at about 10kW. This means that a 6-minute shower uses about 34p of energy. Most people shower once per day, and in houses with 3 or 4 people, this cost can really start to add up. + +In the winter, people will often spend longer in the shower because it's a nice way to warm up. However, this can also lead to people taking 10 or 15-minute showers, which can double or even triple the amount you're spending to operate this appliance every month. + +Shortening your shower times can save you £100s over the course of a year, but on a monthly basis here are some comparisons for thought: + +Single person who takes a 6-minute shower (34p approx) every day of the month: 34p x 30 = **£10.20** + +Single person who takes a 15-minute shower (85p approx) every day of the month: 85p x 30 = **£25.50** + +Household of 4 people who each take a 6-minute shower daily: 34p x 4 x 30 = **£40.80** + +Household of 4 people who each take a 15-minute shower daily: 85p x 4 x 30 = **£102** + +As you can see, the extra time you spend in the shower can lead to a sizeable difference in your energy bills at the end of the month. I know, the thought of cutting down shower times is a bit grim, but it's still good to know that it's a potential way to reduce your energy bills this winter if you wish to do it. + +&#x200B; + +**(2) WASHING AND DRYING:** + +Washing Machines can be anywhere between 0.7-3 kW. Meaning the amount it costs to operate one per hour can vary depending quite a bit depending on the efficiency of the machine. + +A 0.7 kW machine should cost about **24p** to operate for an hour. Whereas a 3 kW machine will cost around **£1.02** to operate for the same amount of time. + +You can easily check the kWh of your machine so that you have a better idea of how much energy it's using, but no matter what the hourly cost is, here are a couple of things you can do to reduce the amount you're spending on washing every month: + +**(1) Use the Quick Wash Setting:** This is my go-to cycle on the washing machine ever since energy bill armageddon. On most washing machines, it's a 20-minute cycle, and honestly, if it's just clothing that you've worn once and then thrown in the wash basket, you really don't need more than 20 minutes for a wash cycle. Of course, for stained or more odorous laundry, you can use a longer wash time, but for most washes that you put on, the 20-minute cycle more than does the job. Doing this can reduce your washing costs quite a bit, so it's absolutely worth changing to. + +**NOTE:** Some people are saying that washing your clothes on eco mode will use less energy even though the cycle lasts longer. This should be the case when compared with a regular cycle, but compared to the quick wash setting, at least on my machine, it does not. Only way to be sure is to check the manual of the washing machine you own and see how many kW each cycle uses. + +**(2) Reduce the temperature you wash your clothes at:** Washing clothes at 30 degrees instead of 40 degrees reduces the energy used per wash. This can help reduce the cost of your energy bills monthly and annually and it's a really simple adjustment to make. + +**(3) Fill your Machine:** It's a simple one, but ensuring that your washing machine is full means you'll put on fewer washes which in turn reduces the amount your machine is costing you every month. + +&#x200B; + +**DRYING:** + +Most tumble dryers operate at around 3kW, but some use even more energy than that. This means that they cost around £1-£1.50 per hour to operate. My solution to reducing the cost of these machines....is simply not to use them. Invest in a couple of clothes horses and dry your clothes near a window. It's free and can save you up to £30 per month. + +&#x200B; + +**(3) COOKING:** + +Most household ovens operate at around 2kW, which means they would cost around **68p** per hour to run (though in reality, they should actually cost a bit less than this, as they don't need to be heated up for the full hour that they're in use). Comparatively, A microwave usually operates at around 1kW, and an air fryer also operates at around 1kW or even a bit less than that, which means they cost around **34p** per hour to run. + +For quick meals, there's an obvious advantage to using a microwave over the oven when possible, but when it comes to cooking things like, chips, meat, vegetables etc, using an air fryer can be a very advantageous alternative. Not only is the kWh half of that of an oven, which means half the energy cost, It also cooks food much faster than an oven, so it is more energy efficient on two fronts. + +You could save £20-£30 per month by investing in an air fryer, which really adds up in the long run. + +**Also:** If you are cooking frozen food like pizza, chips etc. in the oven, there really is no need to preheat the oven for 5-10 minutes before throwing them in, It's a waste of energy. Just turn on the oven and put them in straight away, it will save both your energy and your time. + +&#x200B; + +**(4) BYE BYE TO STANDYBY** + +Another UKPF user made a [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/wkxng0/energy_cost_of_devices_on_standby_in_my_home/) about how much electricity devices in his home were using while on standby. It's pretty eye-opening stuff and definitely worth a look. + +My advice in relation to this is to simply try to get into the habit of completely switching off devices in the home when you're not using them. It's quick to do and easily done and could end up saving you quite a bit in the long run. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +And that's all that I can think of for now, if you have any other suggestions about how to save on energy in the home, please comment and I'll add it into this post. + +Cheers + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT:** Thanks for the suggestions and comments. I have updated the post to include some of these and will add more in tomorrow. + +Also, for anyone interested in more information about any of the topics in this post, like ways to save energy and how the efficiency of heating systems can be improved, I kept a list of links to articles and videos that I came across while I was writing this post. You can find the list on my profile under the title 'More information on saving energy and heating'. + +&#x200B; +If you want DD, there is Zed's library. If you want new DD there is a DD flair. If your DD isn't getting upvoted it's because it's shit. Sorry to tell you. Quality DD will ALWAYS make its way up. But if you want BBB rated DD than use the flair. + +We've done months of analysis on the system. On the dates and deadlines and the different ways to dodge the deadlines. Compared to the beginning I'm sure most apes are savants at this point. If you're not there yet go to zed's DD [library](https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg) (I just searched library in Superstonk and it was 2nd post). + +The frustration had been until now we were at mercy of SEC to take action. That or GameStop knowing in the back of our minds that GameStop triggering an NFT could potentially be solved with a court case and an NFT cash equivalent (cash value at time of NFT issue). Do you trust SEC to not let the above happen? Or waiting for a market crash which is kind of tragic. + +Nothing anyone could do. Only to realize damn near a year later that it's possible to take shares out of the DTCC. That the way to recall shares is by direct registering them, not turning off lending with brokers (lol). + +So stop blaming your DD not getting upvoted on DRS lol. Your DD is just not that good. If you only want DD, there is DDintoGME sub. There is the flair. There are a thousand ways to get it. At the end of the day though its just talk, not action. + +Talk is cheap. It takes money to buy whiskey. + +*As always, this is not financial advice. To be used for information and entertainment purposes only. Do and trust your own DD.* +So many of us that have been here a while remember the hype and speculation that came with the [trademark application for Gmerica](https://uspto.report/TM/90897211) back in August. + +Searching today shows additional filings for the same corporate address (625 Westport Parkway Grapevine) and from the same attorney of record's office (KELLEY DRYE & WARREN LLP). + +******* + +There are two pending registrations for "GAMESTOP" under the company [ELBO, Inc](https://uspto.report/company/Elbo-Inc). + +[It looks like ELBO was the previously used parent company for EB games](https://uspto.report/company/Elbo-Inc) before the combination. The last trademark application under this company was 2018 until Sept of this year. + +[GAMESTOP application 12/6/2021](https://uspto.report/TM/97157461) + +Reading the details this may be for an in-house peripherals/cabling/hardware brand? + +[GAMESTOP application 9/24/2021](https://uspto.report/TM/97043752) + +this covers: + +>IC 009. US 021 023 026 036 038. G & S: Batteries + +>IC 020. US 002 013 022 025 032 050. G & S: Gaming chairs and beanbag style gaming chairs + +>IC 028. US 022 023 038 050. G & S: Interactive electronic video gaming chairs and beanbag style gaming chairs optimized to increase performance in video games + +I'm wondering if this means GameStop is being broken off into a sub-company under a bigger parent company using the old ELBO co. + +**Also note the actual GAMESTOP trademark branding/font is different.** + +The other two registrations are for: + +[GAMESTOP KIDS on 11/11/2021](https://uspto.report/TM/97120659) + +and + +[GS KIDS on 11/11/2021](https://uspto.report/TM/97120637) + + +Someone better versed in company incorporation rules and trademark types will have to chime in as to what implications these applications have, but at the very least they are expanding their brands. GameStop gaming chairs anyone? + +******** + +Adding this because automod needs more length for a DD. This is the filing class for the 12/10 GameStop filing: + +>009 - Primary Class + +>(Electrical and scientific apparatus) Scientific, nautical, surveying, electric, photographic, cinematographic, optical, weighing, measuring, signaling, checking (supervision), lifesaving and teaching apparatus and instruments; apparatus for recording, transmission or reproduction of sound or images; magnetic data carriers, recording discs; automatic vending machines and mechanisms for coin operated apparatus; cash registers, calculating machines, data processing equipment and computers; fire-extinguishing apparatus. +For example, [this article in the QJE] (https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/136/2/1199/6039346?redirectedFrom=fulltext) looks at the impact of sentencing rule violations on recidivism. [This AER article] (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181607) measures racial bias in policing. [This AER article] (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180284) looks at the legacy of colonial medicine in Africa. + +These all seem like important topics and I can see how they are related to broader economic issues (e.g. racial bias in policing leads to disproportionate arrests which weakens the economic power of the targeted community; distrust of medical institutions make a population more prone to illness and thus less productive), but they don't seem like economics in the traditional sense that most people would think of. Am I missing the bigger picture here? + +*Note: I don't mean to pick on these authors in particular. I was just looking at some recent issues of the two top journals I'm familiar with and these articles stood out to me.* +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Breaking news or important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +#### Summary + +*Amazon is the most feared disruptive platform in history. The company has benefited from the pandemic and will continue to reinvest aggressively to continue growing rapidly. They will expand and disrupt new markets and continue using their dominance and scale to drive lower costs and benefit from massive economies of scale. But, their size has put a target on their back, and meaningful antitrust regulation could be just around the corner.* + +Market Price = $3,366 +Estimated Value = $2,805 +Price/Value = 120% +Monte-Carlo Price Percentile = 59% +Rating At Current Price = HOLD + +\-- + +#### The Company + +Amazon is an American multinational technology company focused primarily on eCommerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. The company operates a marketplace for consumers, sellers, and content creators. It offers merchandise and content purchased for resale from vendors and those offered by third-party sellers. + +The company has six business segments: + +1. **Online Stores** — *51% of Revenue* — Offer consumer products through online stores, including fulfilment and shipping. +2. **Physical Stores** — *4% of Revenue* — Offer consumer products through physical stores. +3. **Third-Party Seller Services** — *21% of Revenue* — Offer programs that enable sellers to sell their products in Amazon stores and fulfil orders through Amazon. Receives a commission and fulfilment and shipping fees. +4. **Subscription Services** — *7% of Revenue* — Includes fees from Amazon Prime memberships, access to content including digital video, audiobooks, music, e-books and other non-AWS subscription services. Prime memberships provide customers with access to an evolving suite of benefits that represent a single obligation. +5. **Amazon Web Servers** — *12% of Revenue* — Includes global sales of computing, storage, database, and other services. Certain services, including compute and database, are offered as a fixed quantity over a specified term. +6. **Other** — *6% of Revenue* — Primarily advertising services. + +The company has expanded into new business segments over time, but it remains, primarily, an online retailer. + +[Amazon is still, primarily, an online retailer.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa85629d1-3f66-4c83-9436-0e54112d8070_1692x806.png) + +Despite being a multinational company, Amazon still gets the majority of its revenues from the United States. In fact, \~90% of its revenues come from just four countries: The US, Germany, The UK and Japan. + +[Despite being a multinational, Amazon still gets the vast majority of revenue from the US.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43c930fa-4e78-45fb-8aba-324212995b10_1692x806.png) + +Amazon is the world’s largest online marketplace, artificial intelligence assistant provider, and cloud-computing platform by revenue. Moreover, it is the largest Internet company and the second-largest private-sector employer in the US. + +The company is known for disrupting well-established industries by applying technological innovation at a massive scale. Amazon enables authors, musicians, filmmakers, app developers, and others to publish and sell content via its branded websites. + +Amazon also provides Kindle Direct Publishing, an online platform that allows independent authors and publishers to make their books available in the Kindle Store. In addition, the сompany offers co-branded credit card agreements and advertising services, serves developers and enterprises through Amazon Web Services, and manufactures and sells electronic devices. + +The company owns over 40 subsidiaries, including Audible, Diapers.com, Goodreads, IMDb, Ring, Shopbop, Twitch, and Whole Foods Market. It distributes various downloadable and streaming content through its Prime Video, Music, Twitch, and Audible subsidiaries. + +\-- + +#### The Timeline + +Jeff Bezos founded Amazon in his garage in Bellevue, Washington, in July 1994. He started the company as an online marketplace for books but gradually expanded into electronics, video games, software, furniture, food, toys, and jewellery. + +* 1994 — Jeff Bezos founds Amazon. +* 1997 — IPO at $18/share. Launches second distribution centre. +* 1998 — Acquires IMDb and expands into CDs and DVDs. +* 1999 — Expands into toys and secures 1-click patent. +* 2002 — Starts selling clothes. +* 2003 — Launches AWS. +* 2005 — Amazon Prime launched. +* 2006 — AmazonFresh launched. +* 2007 — Kindle launched. +* 2008 — Acquires Audiobooks company which becomes Audible. +* 2011 — Kindle Fire launched to Enter the tablet market. +* 2014 — Launches smartphones and acquires Twitch ($970M). +* 2015 — Amazon Echo becomes widely available. +* 2017 — Whole Foods acquisition ($13.7B). +* 2018 — Acquires Ring ($839M) and passes $1T market capitalisation. +* 2021 — Acquires MGM ($8.45B). + +Jeff Bezos, who has led the company since he founded it, stood down as CEO in February this year and announced that he would transition to Executive Chair of the Board. Andy Jassy, who is currently the CEO of AWS, is set to take over from Jeff. + +The company has been heavily criticised for its practices, including surveillance overreach, demanding and competitive working conditions, potential tax avoidance and potentially anti-competitive behaviour. As Amazon has grown, it has become an enormous target for regulatory agencies and antitrust suits. + +>*“Last week saw the filing of two more such suits, claiming the Seattle-based e-commerce giant’s policies drive up prices. Those cases bring the number of antitrust actions lodged against Amazon since last March to at least 16.”* +— Katherine Anne Long, [Private antitrust suits stack up against Amazon, mirroring federal scrutiny](https://archive.is/CbDLp), The Seattle Times, 2-Aug-2021 + +\-- + +#### The Financials + +Amazon is one of those businesses that feel like it’s simultaneously been around forever but also just started up. That’s probably because it is. It only took Jeff Bezos 24 years to take Amazon from garage start-up to trillion-dollar company. Mind-blowing! Especially when compared to Apple, which was founded in 1976 and beat Amazon to a trillion by a matter of weeks. + +[The Amazon sprint from IPO to $1T company.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37661c25-ed0c-4e7a-af5b-1756b80852f2_2400x1163.png) + +After a barely noticeable market capitalisation in 1996, Amazon took off during the dot-com boom. Still, as the bubble collapsed, the company lost \~80% of its capitalisation in 2000 alone as capital markets dried up for tech companies. + +This was not good news for the rapidly expanding but loss-making Amazon, which needed access to capital. After this near-death experience, Amazon spent *all* of the following two decades continuing to expand and grow. + +[Year after year, Amazon continues to grow.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe3e50031-efa8-43e3-b39e-5a840b7b3bb9_2400x1167.png) + +The company's growth was other-worldly in the early years, partly because it was a tiny start-up with less than a million dollars in revenues in 1995, partly because of Bezos’s growth ambitions. Revenues reach $2.76 billion by 2020, and the TTM to Q2 2021 were over $443B. + +[Growth was stratospheric in the early years. But, impressively, it has stayed high ever since.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48605a31-8023-439a-b7a0-1de2bd9181a5_2400x1157.png) + +One of the impressive things about Amazon is that it has maintained an incredibly high growth rate despite its increasing size. Typically, the larger a company gets, the harder it becomes to grow at a meaningful clip. Amazon has defied this with their willingness to reinvest virtually all operating profits, acquire new businesses, and expand into almost any line of business imaginable. + +Amazon has *never* registered a TTM period with revenues lower than the last. In fact, the slowest twelve-month period of growth for Amazon was 2001, when they grew at a *pathetic* 13%. + +[Amazon has never registered a period of negative growth.](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98288136-d47b-4497-ba46-39b7c928c6b0_2400x1163.png) + +However, on the income front, the story has not been as positive. While enormous operating losses in the ‘90s are explained by the company being a young growth company, it became increasingly difficult to justify these losses into the early ‘00s. In fact, Amazon was still registering operating losses six years after its IPO. + +Further, rather than operating margins improving over time as the economies-of-scale kick in, which is what you would expect in growth companies, Amazon's margins have not only stayed low but have periodically declined. This suggests that either the company is not reaping the benefits of scale or is operating with a very different agenda and sees maturity at a scale far beyond anything we could previously have imagined. + +\-- + +#### The Previous Valuation - October 2020 + +When [I valued Amazon in October last year](https://valuabl.substack.com/p/valuation-amazoncom-inc), I told a story about an enormous online retailer investing everything in growth. I said that they would continue to grow rapidly but that their businesses would start to mature and see the benefits of the enormous scale. + +Further, I suggested that this scale would help them keep costs low and earn above industry profit margins. I said that they could use these profits, along with their enormous data troves, to continuing acquiring other companies in a successful and value-adding way. + +However, I finished off by suggesting that Amazon could become a victim of its success and was likely to be the target of significant antitrust regulation and even a forced break-up. + +I valued the shares around $2,600-$2,700 and assigned a ‘Reduce’ rating based on my Monte-Carlo simulation and the stock price of $3,200. Since then, the stock price has held up, and it currently trades around $3,300. + +\-- + +#### The Story + +*Amazon is the most feared disruptive platform in history. The company has benefited from the pandemic and will continue to reinvest aggressively to continue growing rapidly. They will expand and disrupt new markets and continue using their dominance and scale to negotiate lower costs and benefit from massive economies of scale. But, their size has put a target on their back, and meaningful antitrust regulation could be just around the corner.* + +**Total Market** — Amazon is so massive and sprawling that it operates in six connected global markets that I have estimated are worth $26.8T in aggregate. I have listed them out [here](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7c25d337-d61b-455b-94e5-5ad126929dcf_427x170.png). + +We can see that economists expect the Digital Media, Cloud Web Servers and Digital Advertising markets to be the fastest-growing. In contrast, they expect the retail (both on and offline) and logistics markets to grow much more slowly. + +When I weigh the market growth forecasts by Amazon’s segment weights, I get an expected Market CAGR for Amazon of 8.75%. + +**x Market Share** — Amazon is a behemoth with access to deep pools of capital. The company has proven its willingness to spend and lose enormous sums to enter new markets and disrupt incumbents. Further, they are becoming increasingly acquisitive in recent years, especially in industries that border their own. Whole Foods and MGM are examples. + +They’re currently *only* 1.8% of the aggregate global market, but this is more a reflection of how enormous these markets are, especially physical retail, than the company. However, if we ignore physical retail (\~4% of the company’s revenue), Amazon has a 5.7% market share in an $8.3T market that will grow at 9%. I think this is a more authentic reflection of the company’s position. I believe that Amazon will continue to reinvest aggressively to expand into new markets and countries and take market share. + +**= Revenue** — I have modelled Amazon to grow at an 18% CAGR. This rate is at the lower end of their historical range but is higher than analyst consensus (17%). This growth rate implies that Amazon will achieve sales of $1.5T by 2030 and have almost 8% of their non-physical retail markets. + +This assumption is not one I take lightly. Turning over that much in a single year is mind-boggling. It is \~$48k per second. It is the entire 2020 GDP of countries like Russia, Brazil, Australia or Spain. Turnover of $1.5T in 2030 would make Amazon 1.25% of 2030 Global GDP compared to the 0.55% it is currently. + +But, the Amazon platform is becoming so ubiquitous that it is the primary, and often only, sales channel for many other companies — one that many businesses and customers can’t walk away from. + +**Less: Costs** — I believe that Amazon will continue to use its dominant position to drive down costs and eventually raise prices. Moreover, when the company begins to mature and stabilise, the incredible economies of scale will reduce fixed costs as a percentage of the cost base. + +**= Operating Income** — I have modelled for operating margins to continue growing from their current level (\~9.5% on an R&D adjusted basis) and reach 13.50% by 2026. This would be almost double the weighted average of the company's industries (6.9% margins) and would result in a yearly NOPAT of nearly $150B by 2030. + +The company has a regulatory target on its back that I believe inhibits margins from expanding much further. Significant price rises or margins getting much bigger would be massive red flags for global regulatory bodies and would encourage them to step in more aggressively. + +**Less: Taxes** — I have modelled the company’s tax rate to rise from its current effective rate of \~12.4% to my estimate of its country-weighted rate of 26.82%. The company also has a $13.4 NOL tax shield. + +**Less: Reinvestment** — The company is going to have to continue reinvesting huge sums. It currently produces $1.93 of sales from every dollar of invested capital. I have modelled for this to continue, resulting in over $530B of additional net capital poured into the business over the next ten years. + +**= Free Cash Flows** — Based on the above, I have forecast that the company will remain FCF positive and won’t need to raise any additional capital. + +**Adjust For: Time Value & Risk** — Amazon is an online retail (51%), physical retail (4%), logistics (21%), entertainment (7%), cloud services (12%), and advertising (6%) business. It gets 69% of revenue from the US, 9% from Germany, 6% from the UK, 6% from Japan, and 11% from the rest of the world. The company has a 0.5x operating leverage ratio and a 7.1% D/E ratio. + +Moody’s has assigned Amazon an A1/A+ rating and says: + +>“Amazon's ratings continue to recognize its powerful brand, which is synonymous with online retail throughout most of the world, as well as the strength and profitability of Amazon Web Services ("AWS"). AWS accounts for the majority of the company's operating income and free cash flow supporting Amazon's ability to make strategic investments in its retail operations. In addition to its leading competitive position in both online retail and web services, Amazon also has a solid ecosystem of entertainment content and a formidable third-party seller business.” +— [Moody’s Investor Services, 10 May 2021](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Amazon-to-A1--PR_445977) + +I have gone with their rating. Usually, I would give a 1.08% chance of distress to companies with this rating based on the historical data. But, for Amazon, I have bumped this to 3% to accommodate for the chance of severe antitrust regulation forcing a breakup of the business or significantly inhibiting growth/profitability. + +**Add: Non-Operating Assets** — $7.3B worth of investments carried at fair value. + +**Less: Debts & Other Claims** — $121B in debts and leasehold commitments. + +\-- + +#### The Valuation + +The company reports in USD and has its primary listing on the NASDAQ. I have valued the company in USD. + +The changes to the valuation drivers from last time are (Oct ‘20 —> Aug ‘21): + +**Baseline Revenue: $**258,522M —> $443,298M +**Growth Rate:** 18.4% —> 18% +**Stable Margins:** 13.54% —> 13.5% +**Capital Costs:** 7.12% —> 6.75% + +[Valuation Model Output Summary](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5f4ff5a-e14e-456a-9a12-32b5150065c2_3300x2118.jpeg) + +**Valuation Model Output:** +Estimated Intrinsic Value/Share = $2,804.97 + +**Monte-Carlo Simulation Intrinsic Value Percentiles:** +90th = $4,856.7 +75th = $3,977.6 +50th = $3,001.0 +25th = $2,024.4 +10th = $1,145.3 + +\-- + +#### Market Price & Rating + +Market Price = $3,366.24 +Estimated Value = $2,804.97 +Price/Value = 120% + +[Historical Stock Prices](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6f21bfa8-f3f0-4cb5-a8df-6bfe04af548f_1954x1208.png) + +Monte-Carlo Price Percentile = 59% +Likelihood Overvalued = 59% +Likelihood Undervalued = 41% + +Rating At Current Price = HOLD + +\-- + +See the original post [here](https://valuabl.substack.com/p/amazoncom-inc-amzn-a-valuation-on). + +See more of my research [here](https://valuabl.substack.com/). + +\-- + +**Disclaimer:**  +This publication is not financial or legal advice. This research is an independent analysis. +I have a friend with 6 year old Civic that’s paid off and only has 55k miles. About a month ago, I was surprised to hear him talking about getting a new car again. I asked him why he wanted to get rid of his civic and he said he rented a new car on his trip that had proximity entry, push button start, and android auto/Apple CarPlay built in. I’m not gonna lie, once you try and get used to those, it’s hard to go back to a key and regular stereo so I understood where he’s coming from. + +Well, years ago in high school and college, I used to install car audio, alarms, remote starters, all that. I told him he can add all those features to his Civic. We added proximity lock/unlock, push button start, 7” stereo with Bluetooth, Android Auto, and Apple CarPlay, and a backup camera. All that ended up costing him just over $500 but now he has a car that he loves again and doesn’t have to drop 20-30k on a new car. I helped him install it but even at a professional shop, that’s probably no more than $1000 total. + +I know there are multiple reason to buy a new(er) car, but if you like your car and just want newer features, take a look at what products are out there, you might be able to add those features to your car and save a lot of money in the long run. + + +EDIT: many people asked, so here’s a partial list: + +- 2102T Directed PKE Passive Keyless Entry System. Works extremely well, DEI makes quality products. Most bad reviews I’ve seen online were from people that didn’t understand how to install it. This is a kit for professional installers so DEI does not give any tech support for DIY installs. + +- The stereo is user preference since there are many to choose from but he got a Pioneer AVH-2300NEX. If you want to go cheaper, I have an ATOTO SA102 in my car and it doesn’t have any issues. But there are probably hundreds of stereos to choose from + +- push button was a generic one he found online, I don’t have the mode number. Just find one with decent reviews on Amazon. They come in different styles so that will be user preference as well. You also need an immobilizer bypass module if your key is chipped. + +- backup camera was from Amazon, they are all pretty much the same so pick whatever style fits your car best. +Looking for some mining companies any commodity that may explode in the next few months, usually the ones i look at go up and the ones i buy go down, noice. +Looking for small SOI, high top 20 shareholder holdings, preferably greenfields and small market cap under 50mil (preferably under 20m) +What we looking at bois? +Top comment will be a yolo in. +Atleast with a mortgage you are actually paying for the house. But with rent it’s just endless money that will ultimately amount to nothing in the end. It’s a place to sleep at night but other than that it’s not the best way to save money. I don’t understand why the cost of living in this country is so freaking high. Then we are expected to still pay for all these other kinds of bills and then have our credit ruined because we didn’t pay them because we were trying just to keep a roof over our head. Literally 100% of my income is rent and I am falling behind on every single other credit card or loan etc which actually amounts to something. Is my only option to become homeless so I can pay off debt??? What a twisted word that we live in. I know everyone is just gonna tell me that it’s my fault but I already know I’m a failure. +I have 3 very beautiful children that I would do anything for. And in the case I die suddenly I want my kids to be able to benefit from my cryptos. + +&#x200B; + +Now I shared my phrase with my wife about two months ago and after that our marriage quickly started declining due to a couple issues. I always get this feeling that she might do me bad. I’m gonna have to change my wallet now and maybe use a crypto inheritance service. Something like Vault 12 should do, I read a lot about it. + +What’s bothering me is that this mistake will now cost me a lot to transfer my money to another wallet +I'm in an undergraduate program at a university probably considered to be low tier at best and our Economics program is really small. Its mostly Graduate students from other departments; Im one of like 3 undergraduates in my year that I've met. Because of this, our curriculum is a little behind the times, specifically in terms of using technology. + +Before switching my major to Econ, I was a CS major, so the technological aspect of economics and building computer models is a specific area of interest for me but other than a basic Econometrics class there aren't any required Data Science courses in my degree and no where to fit them with what I still need. + +I want to take it into my own hands and teach myself some stuff, but I have to decide where to start first. I know the biggest debate, at least in open source software, is between Python and R. I already have a basic understanding of Python as I've used it before for a few small projects. But learning R from scratch is not a task that would bother me in the slightest. + +After a lot of reading I had decided that R was the better language for a more statistical/economics approach to data science. But after consulting a CS friend (in a better University) for suggested reading material, he adamantly argued that R was becoming outdated and to just learn Python. At most just learn enough syntax to be able to read old Economic paper. + +Does this sentiment really reflect the reality of the industry? Is the transition into Python really substantial enough to make learning R a waste of time? And is there anything R can do way better than Python or vise versa. Stuff like being able to easily make and export graphs is important to me. Which I know for a fact you can have a graph exported as a png in R in minutes after downloading the software. Im sure Python has packages for it too, but is it as easy? +TLDR: Did two pointless combat deployments for a government that couldn't care less about preserving a fair and transparent market. + +I joined the MO Army National Guard in 05' at 17 years old as 12B (combat engineer), deployed to Iraq in 07, came home and blew through that money and racked up debt, so I decided to volunteer for a second deployment and went to Afghanistan in 09. + +My Iraq mission was to safe guard a town of ~4000 Iranian refugees known as the People's Mujahideen of Iran located in Ashraf City., Iraq, while other coalition forces worked on disarming them. They did a lot of work for Sadam and were well equipped. Just a few years after that deployment the US turned over control of that mission to to Iraqi Army. The literal next day most of them were killed or driven back in to Iran where they were likely killed. +[Ashraf City Massacre](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Camp_Ashraf_massacre) + +My Afghanistan deployment was in Jalalabad at FOB Finley Shields and our mission was to provide security for an agriculture team that taught Afghans how to farm other crops beside poppy. We built solar wells, cold storage facilities, slaughter houses, orchards, and more. Since Taliban has resumed control I have no doubt that they're using the infrastructure we provided them to grow poppy. They were trying to steal the solar panels from the wells while we were still there. + +In total 28 months of pointless deployment time and Gary can't even do his job. What an absolute slap in the face. No cell no sell. + +Edit: I appreciate all the kind words and hearing from all of the other veterans. I'm honored to be holding with all of you. +That's why all those people invest in assets such as crypto or stock market. They are hoping to become financially free one day. People want to get away from getting exploited by the rich. Because working as a slavery for ridiculous wages until you die is stupid and nobody wants that. Nobody wants to be a wage slave. Working conditions are modern slavery. People don't want to work until the end of their lives. + +That's why rich elites hate cryptos and try to ban them. They don't want regular people to become wealthy. They want regular people to become their wage slaves. + +I hope we all gonna make it one day and will be freed from wage slavery. +&#x200B; + +[All dem bois popped off in January 2021 with GME and the rest of the Meme Stock basket](https://preview.redd.it/9v9pjn11laa91.png?width=815&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bce8a602755f777af2846d58555e3bbc9f2afe8) + +Mind you I picked a couple of fucking random stocks straight from FINRA lmfao just using the drop down menu for TOTAL SHARES and googling floats to find inconsistencies, this took all of 6 minutes to accomplish. I no no DD, me burger flipper, me part of the hivemind. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/otctransparency.finra.org\/otctransparency\/OtcIssueData](https://preview.redd.it/zszhk52dlaa91.png?width=1177&format=png&auto=webp&s=12cd02ed01ad190b6e9d9eb6c903e8f674ff1231) + +Give it a try, it's sure to be an interesting ride. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wg80jnabkaa91.png?width=819&format=png&auto=webp&s=af397ae71a7ce0cb7bb0b39bb480b68e59e9fd8f + +I had this lil ol' theory that we could muster up some data and see the real story behind the manipulation using finra otc data. + +&#x200B; + +i just stumbled upon companies with tiny floats having INSANE amounts of trading volume in ATS (Dark Pools) how the fuck does a company with 14.56 million shares outstanding trade 7.25 BILLION shares off exchange, HOLY SHIT. Guess who's trading all these? Tiny ass firms. Shell companies? Perhaps. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sc6zajk7kaa91.png?width=3333&format=png&auto=webp&s=895651d8cf697ca3f59d99e10266d06e3b2451f5 + +Wanna hear another great COHENCIDENCE? **THEY ALL POP OFF ON THE 7TH OF JULY!** + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[UBQU](https://preview.redd.it/ahlbnj6ikaa91.png?width=683&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf3ea719336d66a44b31faa17e0c46cc30f05f37) + +&#x200B; + +[RNVA](https://preview.redd.it/g3btv3y6kaa91.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=0bbe21c3932557212b2f48aeb6d4b2bc6854828c) + +&#x200B; + +[GNCP](https://preview.redd.it/1l9rwptmkaa91.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3ccc9110dc61660478156b9b2f76a948eac688) + +&#x200B; + +[SRMX](https://preview.redd.it/cxgeb25vkaa91.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e8b37c2e9d32a88f46de555f3058216983a503a) + +&#x200B; + +[NNRX](https://preview.redd.it/cwtv1fzxkaa91.png?width=703&format=png&auto=webp&s=94ae08afcbe661e9560c72fa901ab4698d99701f) + +I'm not very organized, this isn't DD as much as it is what cavemen must've felt when they discovered fire. I'm tired of the Popcorn & BBBY FUD, the closer individuals realize the entire market is fraudulent, the closer to zen they become. + +Remember remember... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jk6defpzlaa91.png?width=686&format=png&auto=webp&s=93df272f2fb6bdb571d1040d82e3a8a7304fd10b + +Coming soon... JP Morgan is fucked + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/j5hn4533maa91.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbd1e4ffef0f655436f61e885e27a0145d587cf9 + +&#x200B; + +[They blocked retail out of participating in OTC markets because if retail caught on and bought cellarboxed stocks, they would've ended up with their legs blown up like Lieutenant Dan!](https://preview.redd.it/e2ghrvwloaa91.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bc8da0f3d808c30a67b0eb730ca50e65ce2df0c) + +P.S. My MOASS song is Knuck if you Buck by Crime Mob, if I could remix that with the 1812 Overture I think that would be nice.[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9saEpqhBP5M](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9saEpqhBP5M) + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: Burger flipper chooses finra over pornhub and cellar boxed penny stocks with weird trade to outstanding shares ratios (which could actually be those SWAPS archagos and JP Morgan are getting fucking RICO'D for) +If I search for inflation or economic crash in YouTube, I only get a bit bunch of real estate agents /investors and bitcoin investors making FUD videos about the next recession, or next great depression. They always have the same argument that I hear over and over, "printing money cause inflation, the gov destroyed this country! time to invest in bitcoin". +Is this bullshit? Every Conservative and libertarian think tank is raging about money printing being the next Armageddon! +What do you think? +Which economist can read that debunked this idea? +On other side, i know French heterodox economists who don't thinks money printing is a direct cause of inflation. +Hey all. We know PPFAS Flexi Cap has re-opened. But I feel its crucial to discuss how the fund will effect existing users, and new investors when they try to invest / redeem units. From various notices used by PPFAS, here are some key notes - + +[https://amc.ppfas.com/downloads/addendum/2022/withdrawal-of-temporary-suspension-for-acceptance-of-transactions-in-parag-parikh-flexi-cap-fund.pdf?10032022](https://amc.ppfas.com/downloads/addendum/2022/withdrawal-of-temporary-suspension-for-acceptance-of-transactions-in-parag-parikh-flexi-cap-fund.pdf?10032022) : + +>Further, the inflows received from the effective date will be deployed in the Domestic securities asper the Asset Allocation of the Scheme and would not amount to any Fundamental Attribute Change in the scheme. + +[https://amc.ppfas.com/downloads/2022/re-opening-of-our-flagship-scheme.pdf?10032022](https://amc.ppfas.com/downloads/2022/re-opening-of-our-flagship-scheme.pdf?10032022) : + +>At this time there is no change in the overseas investment limit. Because of this, fresh net inflows will have to be invested in India. Given this situation, it is expected that over time, the weightage of foreign stocks in Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Fund will come down. + +They mention there's *not going to be any fundamental attribute change* in the scheme, but also mention the *over time the weight-age of foreign stocks is going to come down*. + +Information here might be simple to read but there are important conclusions to this. To explain what this all means, I tried to simplify the maths behind how this MF is going to act going ahead. This is based on my understanding of the scheme and any mistakes are welcomed to be corrected. + +**The maths involved:** + +Suppose before re-opening, they had 1000 units of the MF units shared among various investors, out of which I personally owned 100 units. + +Among the 100 units that I own, 30% were used to hold foreign shares. So, I owned 30 equivalent units of foreign shares. Now - + +1. *When a new investor comes*: +PPFAS are only going to buy indian stocks using his money. Total foreign equivalent units were 30% of 1000 = 300 units. The new guy comes to buy 100 more units at the current NAV. His money is utilized to buy indian stocks, but the total foreign units will be shared with him in proportion to the no. of units he has bought. Total new units are 100+1000 = 1100. So, he receives 300 \* (100/1100) = 27.27 units of foreign stock units, while rest 72.73 are indian stock units he receives.While, for me, my 30 pre-existing units of foreign exposure are going to reduce now to 30 \* (1000/1100) = 27.27 units, since earlier it was distributed to 1000, now its distributed to 1100. So from my perspective, I sold foreign shares of 30-27.27 = 2.73 units and bought indian shares using that money. **Thus, each time a new investor chimes in, I am going to sell my foreign shares to buy indian shares.** +2. *When existing investor redeems units*: +Its going to be the reverse of above calculation. **Thus, each time an existing user redeems units, I am going to sell my indian shares to buy foreign shares**. + +Now all of these are not going to bring any portfolio re-balancing / turnover from PPFAS perspective. The details are all soft information, like what ratio of foreign stocks each investor is holding. This is why they mentioned no fundamental attribute change in the scheme will occur. Thus, the expense ratio won't increase. And since over time, they expect more investors to come-in, rather than investors moving out, they mention that the weight-age of foreign stocks is going to reduce going forward. + +There can be corner cases, which I don't want to discuss, otherwise post might get longer. Like, what if at sudden a lot of redemptions occur and no. of total units reduce from that time of the re-opening of the fund (i.e units become less than 1000 in example above). This has very less probability to occur. But interestingly in that case, the second point above, won't hold true anymore. It would start behaving like the old PPFAS Flexi cap fund. + +Now, as an existing investor, how does it make you feel, given any new investors are going to increase your indian exposure, and redemptions are going to increase your foreign portfolio exposure? Its a little un-easy for me and for portfolios that focus on proper % allocation into various asset classes. + +Your views? +So I found out yesterday that my company is doing layoffs again (yay ag economy) and I think I would like to ask to be laid off. In the last rounds of layoffs generous severance packages have been offered (from what I’ve heard at least) and I have a job offer already for another company/industry. I was planning to submit my resignation sometime in the next week to a month depending on my official start date. Do you think it is possible to swing for the severance? +Given how insightful yesterdays thread was with all you big earners in it, I think it would be interesting to explore the other side of life today. + +I'll start: + +I'm 25 and last financial year earnt 60k before tax. I studied a Bachelor in Television Production and was working a number of casual jobs at the same time in the industry in regional NSW up until April, where I then moved to a major city. I'm in the process of starting my own freelance business and am hoping to earn a decent bit more this financial year, but that is entirely dependent on Covid and if/when life starts returning to normal or stabilising. + +It might not seem like a lot of money but I genuinely enjoy the work and find it to be very fulfilling. The fact that every day I can be doing something completely different while getting to see and explore all kinds of subjects and places that people normally dont have the ability to really makes it worthwhile for me. I could never work an office job even if I was being paid twice as much to do it! +Sbi has launched a new cashback card which has 5% cashback for all online merchant transactions. + +This essentially should make Flipkart & amazon cards irrelevant. + +SBI cashback card +- 5% upto 10k on online merchant transactions +- 1% on other transaction & utility bill payments ( except the obvious fuel, wallet etc ) +- Annual fee of 999, no joining fee ( update annual fee is waived for spends above 2l) +- 4 lounge access per year +- +https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/personal-finance/sbi-card-offers-5-cash-back-on-all-online-transactions-know-details-article-93941666 +I'm excited to announce that our next AMA will be with Computershare! + +This AMA will be slightly different from previous ones as we're talking with a company rather than an individual. As such, it'll be recorded offline and posted on our [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJ-mn_GXx-MZeL8KiNx-_IA) instead of being a live stream. We'll also post along with it a text version for those who want to read rather than listen. + +--- + +**This post is the request thread for questions.** It'll be open for questions until ***22nd October at 7:00pm EST***. + + +--- + +We're grateful that Computershare are working with us to get an AMA out for the community, however they have rules to abide to: + +**There will be no questions about specific companies they act as the transfer agent for.** + +Questions relating to the DTCC, DRS itself are fine of course. Please refer to their FAQ [here](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies) for a comprehensive list of questions and answers already. Please have a scroll through to make sure what question/s you are asking are not already answered on there. Or if you want to just hear them say it, feel free to request and point that out 😅 + +We'll aim to release the AMA Video and accompanying text post **late next week**. +Hi, have lurked for a while - thought I’d seek out some advice. + +I have a £285k, 2.5%, 35yr mortgage. I am 32. +I pay around £1k in mortgage payments, and currently a monthly £120 overpayment (well within the 10% overpayment limit). +This should shorten the term by around 5 years. I’d like to be mortgage free as early as possible. + +Background on me - I could increase the monthly payment to £200-300 if I desired. I also receive an annual bonus so could make a lump sum as well. + +We don’t have any big debts, but no savings either really. I’d use this years bonus to kick start the savings. + +Are mortgage overpayments worth it? +DISCLAIMER: This post is NOT Financial Advice! + +This is actual DD of just statistical, cold hard facts. My previous post got removed by the compromised mods of r/wallstreetbets + + +[I have access to Bloomberg Terminal with up to date data as of February 5 on institutional holdings. Institutions currently hold 177% of the float!](https://i.redd.it/c44cmb67mtf61.png) + + +[How is this even possible to own more than 100% of the float?](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/institutional_holdings.asp) Here's an example of one of the most likely causes of distorted institutional holdings percentages. Let's assume Company XYZ has 20 million shares outstanding and Institution A owns all 20 million. In a shorting transaction, institution B borrows five million of these shares from Institution A, then sells them to Institution C. If both A and C claim ownership of the shares shorted by B, the institutional ownership of Company XYZ could be reported as 25 million shares (20 + 5)—or 125% (25 ÷ 20). In this case, institutional holdings may be incorrectly reported as more than 100%. + + +In cases where reported institutional ownership exceeds 100%, actual institutional ownership would need to already be very high. While somewhat imprecise, arriving at this conclusion helps investors to determine the degree of the potential impact that institutional purchases and sales could have on a company's stock overall. + + +I have plausible evidence that leads me to believe there are still shorts who have not covered, and there are also shorts who entered greedily at prices that could still trigger a short squeeze event as this knife has been falling. [~1 million shares of GME were borrowed this Friday at 10 am, and a short attack occured that dropped GME from $95 to $70 over the course of 15 minutes.](https://i.redd.it/97j13bxy4pf61.jpg) + + +[This is my source for live borrowed shares data that you can watch during market hours.](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) + +So we still meet the first requirement for a short squeeze to even be possible, there ARE a lot of short positions taken in GME still. The ultimate question is will there be enough demand to drown the supply? Or are we going to let the wolf in sheep's clothing aka Citadel who we know is behind not only these short positions bailing them out and purchasing puts themselves (data from 9/30/20) , but behind many brokerages who ultimately manipulated the supply demand chain by removing buying...are we really going to just let this happen? What they did last Thursday was straight up criminal. + + +Institutions move the markets more than retailers unfortunately, especially when order flows go directly through Citadel. [But it is very interesting the amount of OTM calls weeks out compared to puts. This is options expiring 3/12/21, and all the earlier expiration dates are also heavy in OTM calls.](https://i.imgur.com/mv0bo4Y.png) Max pain theory states it is in the market maker's best interest (those who write options aka theta gang) for price to gravitate towards max pain, as the strike price with the most open contracts including puts and calls would cause financial losses for the largest number of option holders at expiration. + + +With this heavy volume abundant in OTM calls, a gamma squeeze can occur if we can get the market makers to hedge against their options. [Look what triggered the explosive movement as price blasted past the max pain strike last week, I believe this caused many bears to have to take a long position as a way to hedge against their losses.](https://i.imgur.com/NHZg0O6.png) And right now, we are very close and gravitating towards max pain strike. If there is a catalyst/company event that can cause demand to increase, I believe GME is not dead for all the aforementioned reasons above. Thank you for taking your time to read my DD, my original post on wsb was removed by the mods. +We know you’re here. You know we know you’re here. + +It hasn’t gone without notice that a narrative foundation is being laid to blame retail investors for meme stock volatility, and to justify intervention “for the sake of the market and to protect unsophisticated investors from their own choices”. + +Today’s wild swings were caused by institutional investor sell off and further hedge fund antics. Retail investors are holding. If there is volatility, it’s only because the “experts” are gaming the system and losing at it. + +The little guys are going to come out on top for once -provided you can avoid the lobbyists’ calls to save them or bail them out. Don’t repeat 2009 please. +My wife and I have lived in the first home we ever purchased for the past 7 years. In that time, we've had 2 kids (they are 18 months and 3 yrs old atm). We currently live in Minneapolis proper and have been exploring schools for our oldest in case we want to move into the school district we feel suits our needs/priorities. + +Over the past year and half, my wife has become obsessed with Dave Ramsey and we have paid off 20k debt (student loans, new car, yet have another 10k to go) all while making around 100k. Day care is 30k a year, so I'm actually pretty impressed with how strict we have been budgeting. + +My In-laws have taken notice and feel we have a solid budgetary mindset, and they want to help up on this trajectory. They have consistently said they'd rather help us when we need it rather then watch us struggle and inherit their hard work after they die. What a generous philosophy! + +So...here I am. I'm looking for the best way to go about accepting their gift. + +-Do we sell our house and take out a mortgage on the new one and simply have them send the lender a banknote? + +-Do they purchase the home, and then we buy it from them minus 200k? + +-We owe about 190K on our current home. Should we have them pay off our current Mortgage and start fresh with sizable downpayment? + +-Other ideas? + +My father In-law doesn't really have a financial adviser, just a guy at the bank he talks to. He's the one that recommend he start selling some property and "liquidating" his assets since he's near retirement. That's where this idea sort of came from. + +Thanks in advance! + +Edit 1 - Thanks for all the suggestions, advice, and anecdotes. We truly are blessed to be in this situation + +Edit 2 - Renting out the house isn't an option. I have ZERO interest in being a landlord or dealing with a rental management company + + + +After a bumpy weekend, the market is looking to stabilize as we kick off a new chapter in the 2021 bull run. While it may be that crabbing season is upon us, the waves of the market show an increasingly positive trendline that could break out at any moment. + +We all know there’s another wave of FOMO coming to cryptocurrency. It really is just a matter of when. + +As it recovers, the Phoenix Protocol is here with their BTC Recovery Roadmap, offering lucky holders a chance at massive giveaways to celebrate our revival. + +The first prizes have already begun to spread with Twitter contests deciding which three lucky winners will get a piece of $10,000 being handed out as well as three iPhone 12’s being physically mailed to $PHX holders. + +Giveaways like these are exactly what drove recent tokens like CluCoin to a nine digit market cap, so expect these prizes to ramp up both in luxury and in price point as $PHX makes its own run at $100M. + +Which, with a little traction by the original cryptocurrency, will lead to the giveaways stacking on top of one another, building a wave of news designed to coincide with an exploding market. + +So, considering this project just opened up a couple days ago, you’re still incredibly early. Influencers have just started coming on board, and JUST got listed on CoinMarketCap. If you’ve followed this type of news on a coin this early before, you know it basically guarantees a 2x, with potential for so much more, people already buying the rumor. + +With consistent marketing, contests, giveaways, listings, and influencers about to come up, potentially with a bounce in the market, you are incredibly early to a project that launched less than three days ago. + +And if you’ve learned anything from being in this market, it’s that being early, before all the news rolls in, is the only way you’re ever going to walk out of this alive. + +So get in on $PHX while you still can, and make sure you keep that Twitter active and running. Your odds are pretty impressive at these early stages, there’s a serious chance for you to win big prizes. + +And, best of all, you get to pump your bags at the same time. The harder you push, the harder it makes other people work, and if that happens, then everyone wins. This is DeFi at its finest for apes like us, now enjoy the spoils and let’s win some money! + +&#x200B; + +🔥 Website - [www.phoenixprotocol.net/](https://www.phoenixprotocol.net/) + +🦍 Telegram - [t.me/ThePhoenixToken](https://t.me/ThePhoenixToken) + +📈 PancakeSwap - [exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb98d864ddcb573567b3a2258c9e5cab58fe7974e](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb98d864ddcb573567b3a2258c9e5cab58fe7974e) +I just read this article and thought it was a well written insight into what seems to be an ordinary journey to financial independence/retirement, and knowing when what you have is 'enough' for you. I'm not anywhere near financial independence, but even in my situation (average salary; no assets) it's a good reminder to enjoy what I have. + +[https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/business/mutfund/saving-money.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/business/mutfund/saving-money.html) + + + +>*Unsettling though it was not to wake up every morning trying to make as much money as I could, I came to realize that I have more control over my time than I ever have. I am pleased to be able to work as much as I want to and to be able to help others. I am not unique in that. Maybe I’m naïve, but I think just about all of us do what we can. Especially now.* +> +>***John C. Bogle and Joseph Heller had the answer.*** +> +>*All of this has gotten me to recall a story Mr. Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, used to begin one of his books.* +> +>*“At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel ‘Catch-22’ over its whole history.* +> +>*“Heller responds, ‘Yes, but I have something that he will never have … enough.’”* +> +>*Mr. Bogle used the punchline for the book’s title: “Enough”* +What GME did to hedge funds, BTC has been quietly doing to Central Banks and Governments for 10 years, they just don't know it yet. + +Thank you for waking up and becoming a part of the revolution, we applaud your efforts in fighting our ownership class. + +As you start interacting here know that we still love you, even if you aren't ready for things like a hardware wallet or private key storage yet. Some of us are just really hardcore about that. They are awesome people full of great information when you are ready to go down that road. + +As you get to know us you will find our hands aren't diamonds they are the collapsed star material that makes up a black hole. We use Satoshis to measure our wealth, not dollars. Telling us to hold our positions is like telling a fish to swim, we don't know anything else. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Edit:** + +&#x200B; + +Edit2: Removed previous edit and made comment. Satisfied Mods? +Not the stock. The **actual company.** + +If we all get together and own 51% then we will own this entire website. + +We could make the rules, profit from the advertising, and finally get paid for the memes we make. + +I've even come up with a list of things we could do as new owners: + +1. Reddit mods can apply for paid-internships at Reddit. This is much closer to having a real job than what they currently do and would benefit the organization. +2. Your flair is your official title at the company. IE: instead of "CFO" you'll be "PotatoFart" +3. NSFW posts will receive special protections--and if you happen to work in our new skyscraper then NSFW posts are automatically considered SFW. +4. Everyone gets a turn in the corporate jet. +5. Elon becomes a mod. He can also apply to become a paid intern. +6. We have a monthly party on our company yacht: *The S.S. VisualMod*. +7. Our corporate cafeteria is a dining hall with fast food restaurants along the side--but they're all Wendy's. + +I think this is a great idea. + +Keep it high and tight. + +👖🚀👖🚀👖🚀 + +Edit: Well, if you guys are going to spend money on awards for this dumb post IDK how we're going to buy enough Reddit shares to own the company. Mission aborted. + +Also, it seems that roughly 23% of Redditors don't like a fun joke--so we wouldn't want to share equity with you losers anyway. +I setup a WealthSimple account last year with a plan to contribute $250 every two (2) weeks. I'm not too well versed in investing so figured this would be ideal. + +I choose the investment plan with a risk level 2. The portfolio is 35% Equities and 65% Fixed income & Gold. + +Recapping the year, the portfolio had a net deposit of $9,500 with a current MV of $9,436.28, total return of -$63.72 (-0.7%). + +The Fixed income & Gold holdings have gone down in Feb 2021, which is resulting in the decrease for the overall portfolio. However, wondering what are your thoughts on this strategy and any recommendation to improve my overall return? + +Thanks! + +Edit: Thanks everyone for the comments/insight! When I setup the portfolio, it recommended a level 2 risk level. It’s my fault, didn’t really look into it and just accepted it. I’m in my early 30s so will bump up the risk level for sure and look at other ETF options as recommended below. +My wife and I were about to sign the contract for a house then Monday morning I found out they're promoting me to another location. Being that I could technically decline and say no however this would limit my career growth/advancement since I was still entry level. Now upper management want people "willing to take risks" and "multi-experience" in different locations which I feel is all total BS nowadays. It just feels frustrating that they expect us to move every couple of years to go up the ladder and even if that wasn't the case the only way to move up is to jump companies as well which may in a totally different location. Any thoughts? +I don't know if you guys follow any value investing channel on YouTube. All the channels I follow almost all of them cover Baba and tencent extensively and for almost all of them baba is an excellent value play with it own risk but a fundamental good play. + +All those channels offer also other company analysis but none of them are as cheap as baba. + +They also offer premium content and ALL of them shill their premium content by claiming they have even better companies that offer better returns than baba. + +They mostly say that they own baba but it's a small portion of the portfolio and that they have a better company and to find out join their premium list. + +So I wonder what you think about it, is it all marketing tactics or they have good company that no one has find out except them. +I’m wondering if I’ll ever be able to afford a house. Here’s my current situation: + +I lived most of my life overseas. Had great jobs and about 800k usd saved, was planning to buy a condo for cash. Then I discovered my (now ex) husband’s double life and that he had gambled away all but 6k of it. That was in 2013. Since then I’ve had a lot of mental health challenges and eventually moved back to Australia in 2016 to begin again. It took me a long time to get a good job, so I lived on credit for a while. Got a good job now that pays 135k. But then I got cancer. I have salary continuance which pays 70% of my FT salary and will do until I go back to work in May. + +My current financial situation is like this: + +Monthly: +net income: apprx 4500 +Rent and household expenses: 2000 +Food: 800 +Car: 600 +Medical bills: 250 +Credit repayment: 150 + +Credit card debt: 15K (this is my only debt) + +I have no savings. +I have a small 401k and UK pension that are kept overseas. Prob worth about 20-30k + +What would you do if you were me? I’m feeling pretty lost about it and I’ve ignored this since I lost all my savings but I know I have to face it someday so now is that day I guess. + +TL;DR: 47 year old woman with no savings and considerable debt, how do I even begin to consider buying property or saving $$? + +Edit: Since writing this post, work has called to announce a restructure and the very real possibility I might be made redundant. If that was to happen I would be homeless within a month. So the stress around all of this is not ideal but I’ve decided I need to move in with my father, even though he lives in a small apartment and I would get very little privacy. It’s a hit to my pride but there’s no other option at the moment. Dad wouldn’t charge rent (unlike my mother who has a large house but would charge me $250 a week for a single bed). + +Thank you for all your suggestions ranging from expense reduction to accessing my overseas accounts to balancing my stress levels and wellness with all this... and I really hope this story has a happy ending. +Sorry for the throwaway account, and sorry for the bragging. + +Some veiled yet factual details, if anyone wants to know: I have been working for 19 years, with a few months off in the middle, I have a good education (MFA, paid off $53k in loans, and slightly less for my wife's loans). + +My starting annual salary was 34k in 2000. My highest annual salary was about 2 years ago, 110k. I live in a large American city. I have never worked very hard (office job, 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year, or less). I have always invested in the stock market (even during the low-salaried years). + +I bought and sold a house in Large American City for profit. I buy used cars exclusively, high miles ok (currently a sweet $6k convertible, bought 3 months ago). I don't actually enjoy expensive restaurants, so I don't go to them. I do travel more than I would consider "frugal." But nothing too crazy. Europe a few times, Mexico, Canada, Hawaii, Vegas. + +Besides the bragging, I also wanted to post to say that saving money is an achievable goal. I see a lot of articles and posts, etc. about people unable to get ahead, the system is rigged, the system is bad, etc. I disagree. I didn't even start working until I was 26, and since then I have done nothing extraordinary, in terms of effort. All you need is discipline, and I guess a little knowledge. + +My question is.... can I "retire" now?!? + +Good luck and best wishes to all! + +Edit: to clarify for some people, I was raised “middle class”. When I say I didn’t start working until age 26, I meant to say I didn’t start saving until then. I had many jobs as a teen and college and grad student. (Dishwasher, waiter, tutor, you name it.) + +Edit 2: this got more attention than I expected, sorry I can’t answer questions/messages anymore (I’m not retired yet!) but I answered several in comments. + +Edit 3: OK, now this reeeally got a lot views and responses - answers to common questions: The car is a BMW 3 series, 2006. I went to a liberal arts college in Vermont and was a Psychology major, then went to grad school for TV production in the city. (Psychology degree remains unused, but not regretted.) Questions from comments: My first 6 figures (in savings) was achieved in (I think) 2005? My first 6 figures (in annual salary) was maybe... 2012? People are writing to me asking for advice and encouragement, my main advice would be to automate your savings, the old "pay yourself first" strategy, preferably into stock index funds. My second advice would be not to buy dumb stuff, no "keeping up with the Joneses". My third advice would be not to buy new stuff, if it costs more than, say, $100, and it's not made with any kind of cloth or fabric. (That's right, leather seats in the cars...) My final advice would be to eliminate and reduce, as much as possible, the cost of your monthly bills. (When you buy a car with cash, there's no monthly payment.) +I understand that it's a whole market thing, but I'm asking here because ETH is my short-term play. and it hasn't done great as of late. The shitstorm that is Mt.Gox trustee is supposedly over for now, and all predictions for the slump's end were March. Why are we still sinking? and where's the bottom? +The July 14th date is so amazing. + +Edit: Here is where you can verify the release date of the [GME Token](https://imgur.com/gallery/XoOHBEn) Credit to u/teacoat___ + +My wife pointed out that’s Bastille Day. + +That’s the day where the French citizens—who were insanely oppressed by the monarch—rose up, stormed the Bastille, and overthrew the ruling 1%. + +Learn more about this important date: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastille_Day + +That launch date is not accidental. + +What’s more, Bastille is a synonym for citadel. Wonder who’s going to be storming the Citadel this time... + +I didn’t think my tits could be even more jacked. See you on the moon fam 🚀 + +Edit 2: semantically I should have said “token” instead of “coin” in the title +Good morning! Here's the daily update on RRGs, and I will write more about each sector every Monday. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/460cn4rzujr61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fc38463dac64f77787ef25c7b3bad42d267b7ab + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jxelw3k1vjr61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=541686279da99516fd3fa8e0574c501d42ee0f97 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2fcjawo3vjr61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cc5c8bb828240e112371bd2852ab8b609a315c5 + +You can find stocks within each sector [here](https://imgur.com/a/64iPY0S). +I just got off the phone with a hotline person from SBroker... Long story short, she claims that Gamestop cancelled the split and this is the news that the SBroker has received as of Friday night... What the fuck is this? This is completely wrong and basically a blatant lie. On my question, when we will see our shares, she basically said she doesn't know and that they won't be able to give me any date as of now. I then asked what I can do and who I can contact and she said that the only thing that can be done now, is contact Gamestop to ask why they cancelled the split... What the fuck are these people smoking? I will basically send a mail to Bafin now... This is complete fuckery... + +\------------------------------------------ + +Latest reply from my Broker: + +&#x200B; + +[Orange tranlation: They don't know when it will arrive...](https://preview.redd.it/0iyyr45oc4f91.jpg?width=1501&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=20ebb09a1e28a30f35054603994961e7bb2e77d2) + +\------------------------------------------- + +Somebody with a few wrinkles might want to check Edit 5! + +Edit 1: Based on a comment in the German Sub, DKB is giving out the same information. So is DWP Bank giving out fake information? + +Edit 2: Another comment in... Santander Bank said the same. + +Edit 3: Here is some further interesting information from fellow german apes... + +*📷Level 1*[*Masterchief\_m*](https://www.reddit.com/user/Masterchief_m/) *·* [*vor 2 Std.*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wdafma/comment/iihatvt/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) *· bearbeitet vor 13 Min.📷📷📷* + +*I'll called Volksbank.. Shares not there yet...* + +*Ahem okay?? I called and she said she knows nothing about the case and will forward me to a consultant. Then they hung up...* + +*On the second call I was told that I would have to talk to my consultant about it... she happens to be out today and neither is her replacement. I will now apparently be called back later today! Wow just wow...* + +*Edit: credit to* [*u/Zealousideal\_Gate\_55*](https://www.reddit.com/u/Zealousideal_Gate_55/) + +*"I just spoke with a DWP Bank employee. As a bank employee, I have a direct hotline. As many have suspected, DWP incorrectly recorded the dividend - as a stock split. It was then withdrawn on Friday. The dividend will most likely be posted today during the day, tomorrow at the latest. Please pass the info on to Superstonk as well. My karma is not enough unfortunately."* + +Edit 4: Another interesting find: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wddmmd/german\_hodler\_here\_interesting\_find\_this\_section/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wddmmd/german_hodler_here_interesting_find_this_section/) + +Edit 5: Another interesting hint from u/Simulation_Glitch. This could be a loophole for as many fake shares as they desire in Germany. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/pubs\/ft\/wp\/2010\/wp10172.pdf](https://preview.redd.it/c24ufd5qj3f91.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=338c98beb858c92f968a6d9392225627b9aadf5b) + +Edit 6: Huge... + +[https://community.comdirect.de/t5/Wertpapiere-Anlage/GameStop-Dividend-Split/m-p/245618#M154292](https://community.comdirect.de/t5/Wertpapiere-Anlage/GameStop-Dividend-Split/m-p/245618#M154292) + +ComDirect (huge bank) claims DTCC tells them it was a regular stock split not a divvy. Wow. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wdhh8h/german\_broker\_comdirect\_says\_that\_the\_dtcc\_told/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/wdhh8h/german_broker_comdirect_says_that_the_dtcc_told/) + +&#x200B; +(CNBC) Amazon reported better-than-expected third-quarter results after the bell on Thursday, including soaring profits and 37% revenue growth. + +The stock bounced around in extended trading after Amazon provided a wide guidance range for the fourth quarter. + +* **Earnings:** $12.37 vs $7.41 per share expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv +* **Revenue:** $96.15 billion vs $92.7 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv + +Amazon said sales in the fourth quarter will be between $112 billion and $121 billion, which comes out to growth of 28% to 38% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting revenue of $112.3 billion. + +The company forecast operating income of $1 billion to $4.5 billion, assuming about $4.0 billion of costs tied to COVID-19. That's a step up from the second quarter, when Amazon said it would spend more than $2 billion on coronavirus-related measures, including procuring personal protective equipment, enhanced cleaning of its facilities and wage increases. + +Amazon continues to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic, as consumers flocked to the site for essential goods, groceries and household items. Amazon is expected to face even greater demand heading into the holiday season, with shoppers likely to do the bulk of their gift buying online instead of making trips to the store. + +"We're seeing more customers than ever shopping early for their holiday gifts, which is just one of the signs that this is going to be an unprecedented holiday season," Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said in a statement. + +Bezos also touted Amazon's recent job creation and treatment of warehouse workers, which has been a subject of scrutiny in recent months. The Amazon CEO pointed to Amazon's $15 minimum wage and challenged other large employers to "make the jump to $15." + +Amazon is one of few companies that has continued to grow its headcount amid a broader economic downturn due to the coronavirus crisis. The company now counts more than 1.12 million full-time employees across the globe, an increase of 50% year over year. That figure doesn't include Amazon's network of contractors and temporary workers. + +Amazon's cloud-computing unit, Amazon Web Services, generated sales of $11.6 billion for the quarter, up 29% year over year and in line with analysts' estimates, according to FactSet. Operating income in the segment of $3.54 billion topped estimates of $3.45 billion. The segment was helped by millions of people working from home.   + +The company's "other" category, which is primarily comprised of its advertising business, saw revenue of $5.4 billion, up 51% year over year. Subscription services, which includes revenue from Prime memberships, climbed 33% year over year to $6.58 billion. + +Once again, third-party sales grew more than Amazon's first-party business. Third-party sales increased 55% year-over-year, while first-party sales grew 38% year-over-year. Sales fell 10% in Amazon's physical store unit, which includes Whole Foods Market. + +Amazon shares are up 74% this year, the best performance among the five most valuable U.S. tech companies. + +Three of those companies — Apple, Alphabet and Facebook — also reported quarterly results after the bell on Thursday and all exceeded analysts' estimates. + +Amazon will hold a call with investors to discuss its third-quarter results starting at 5:30 p.m. ET. + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2020.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q3-2020.html) + +&#x200B; +Hi, so I started an Ltd company earlier this year as a side gig selling some IT consulting work. Thankfully I've done well and I'm expecting to have between 100-150k sitting in the bank by the end of year. + +I would normally consider means of paying myself however as it currently stands I have a full time job and I'm in a high tax bracket. + +Can anyone reccomend things I can do with that money in the meantime? Can I invest with it? If so, how? I'm pretty clued up in investing with personal disposable income. Should I buy property through my Ltd? + +I do also want to resettle abroad, should I look into moving money abroad (legally ofc). + +Thanks ! +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Want to learn more?** [**Check out our extensive Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **and** [**FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) + +Please review the [**Superstonk Rules**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules) before commenting or posting on r/Superstonk. + +Remember that you can [**use the flair index to filter posts**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrwirc/updated_about_and_menu_flair_directory/). + +*Daily discussion threads are created at 2:00 a.m. EDT* + Why does budget Seems so goody goody, something to worry? + +India 10Y Bond Yield showed a fresh high in over 2 and half years, hinting inflation expectations and lets closely watch on next week's RBI's announcement. + +This Budget announced So many Bonds including Sovereign Bond and to make it worse neither overseas are not allowed trading in India Bonds nor national debts are included in global bond index. Fiscal Deficit is 6.4% for 2022-2023, BTW for this year it 6.9%. They claim to reduce to 4.5 by 2025-26, way to go India, which will eventually be summed up to national Debt. + +We did see the strong change in the Indian currency Trend, if anyone followed closely USDINR, trend SHARPLY reversed after Budget announcement. + +US is too too Positive on Biden's 2T Economy Build up, the unemployment pay, 30% pay increment, so much cash flowing in the system, all will sum up to the inflation. + +Need to Look, RBI Announcement next week and FED's March Meeting, which at least they have hinted to announce when the rate hike might come up. +That’s it. Really it has me excited. $80 drop within 2 weeks? Yeah right man this is the dip be for the RIP! + + + + +No room for disappointment either since it’s the last month of Q4! + +Godspeed and let’s make a change! + + + + + +Character Limit: DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS DRS. +Hey guys, this weekend I spent a ton of time reading about CLF and the steelmaking process and watching a lot of videos on youtube. + + Below is my vision based on company presentations, previous earning calls, 10Ks, 10Qs, and so on. + +&nbsp; + +**Recent History of $CLF** + + Up until 2018, CLF was an iron-ore miner and producer in the form of pellets that it then sold to integrated steelmakers such as ArcelorMittalUSA and AK Steel. In fact, AMU and AKS, alongside Algoma (Canadian Steelmaker), made up 95% of the total revenue of CLF. + +Iron Ore is just the raw material used in the steel-making process, mainly in Blast Furnaces and BOS (Basic Oxygenation Steelmaking). The alternative to the high capital intensive BF/BOS is the Electric Arc Furnace process (EAF). This uses mainly scrap metal and other iron feed, such as HBI/Pig Iron/DRI. These furnaces require less capital upfront to run and have more variable costs attached to them (more to this later, variable ≠ low cost). + +In 2019 CLF acquired AK Steel and in 2020 they acquired ArcelorMittal, thus fully converting themselves into a vertically integrated steel producer. + +These acquisitions position CLF as the largest flat steel producer in the US, ahead of Nucor and US Steel. +Annual production is roughly 17 million tons. + +&nbsp; + +**CLF in 2021** + + With these recent acquisitions, CLF positions itself as a key and major player in the US Steel Industry. +The steel product mix breakdown is 28% hot-rolled steel (HRC), 18% cold-rolled, 33% coated, and 21% in others. + +The customer base is 33% auto manufacturers, 25% infrastructure and manufacturing, 32% distributors & converters, and 11% others. + +CLF iron ore pellets will be mainly used for intracompany operations so the steel-making operations will not be impacted by the volatility of these prices. + +CLF is on a great foot to achieve a record year in 2021 with a $5b projected EBITDA, almost twice as the last 5 years combined. + +&nbsp; + +**Strategic Vision and Advantages** + + **I)** The auto industry is a key player and customer for CLF. During late 2020 and 2021 automakers haven’t been able to keep up with demand in new cars and their inventories have fallen to ~20 days, roughly half of what it was a year ago. + +So there’s a lot of backlog demand in automakers, and thus a firm demand for CLF steel products. +The steel used in automaking is mainly AHSS (advanced high-strength steel) which CLF produces and is a high value-added item along with coated still (galvanized, galvalume, etc) + + **II)** During 2021 we have seen an unprecedented rise in steel prices. HRC prices are above $1,600 and started the year at around $1,000. Although CLF has fixed-price contracts with some customers, some naturally are expiring during the year and renovated at higher prices. + +2021 Q1 EBITDA was $0.5 and projected Q2 is $1.4b. Full-year projections are $5b, which are totally feasible given the rise in steel prices and backlog for auto production. + +Cashflow after CAPEX generated in Q1 was $0.3b (excluding increases in working capital). If cash flow generated during the rest of the year follows the EBITDA trend we can estimate it’s going to be in the $2.5-$3.0b range. +As the CEO has commented before, this cash would be used primarily to pay the debt accumulated by the company ($5.7b in Q1) that has an average weighted cost of 5,44% per year ($0.3b in annual interest). + + **III)** During the last 20 years US Steel production has migrated from BOS to EAF production. EAF mainly uses scrap metal as feed and depends on its quality and prices for steel production. Its advantages are that the initial capital costs are a fraction (less than 1/3) of what a BOS facility costs. + +As quality scrap becomes scarcer, EAF will need to supplement their feed with other iron products such as HBI. +In 2021 an HBI plant started production in the Great Lakes area producing around 2 million tons per year in order to feed CLF’s own EAFs and also third parties. + +As we stated previously, EAFs enjoy low capital costs and are driven mainly by their variable costs of energy + scrap metal. But scrap metal prices and volatile. + +CLF mainly has BOS operations that benefit from their integrated pellet iron ore production, but also are investing in strategic HBI production so they can sell to this market as well. + + **IV)** US-made steel has the lowest carbon footprint of any steel-making country in the world. It produces almost half the emissions in countries such as Germany and Japan. China is the biggest pollutant country in this respect. +As such, US steel is very well positioned to embrace the climate change challenges and promote itself as green steel. +Also, CLF is trying to migrate to more natural gas use instead of coke (coal-based fuel) for its blast furnace operations. + +&nbsp; + +**Risks** + The main risks are the pricing of steel products as revenue is sensitive to them, and also demand, mainly by the auto industry. I believe the demand risk is low because auto-making in the US has been diminishing for some years but it’s not going to zero. Also, we’re seeing an increase in EV automakers manufacturing in the US, so that could be a plus. + + Climate and environmental regulations are also a risk, but I believe that US steel and CLF are very well positioned to take them on. + + Competition from other countries is a risk. + +Raises in interest rates are also a risk because this is a capital-intensive business. According to the FED, there’ll be some hikes in 2023-2024 but they appear to be moderate and if CFL takes steps to pay part of their debt, this risk will be minor. + +&nbsp; + + **Valuation** + +I'm not a big fan of DCF valuations, so I just do them to get a ballpark price or the assumptions that need to be met to achieve a certain share price. + + Assuming this year will be an extraordinary one with $2b in FCF, I’ll assume a range of between $0.5b and $1b as FCF for years to come (post interest expenses). This assumes a yearly CAPEX of $0.5b as well. The EBITDA pre acquisitions were around ~$350 million on average so $0.5b seems like a really low bound. + According to several sites, the WACC seems to be in the 9% to 12% range, so I’m going to use the upper bound for a margin of safety. +Using a 2% perpetual growth rate (akin to GNP growth) I get a value between ~$23 and ~$45. + +&nbsp; + +Appreciate your thoughts and insight. + +&nbsp; + + Current positions = 200 Shares, 4 15/10 $30 calls. +I've posted recently about my story on /r/RealEstate ([here is the post]( https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/7xsfzi/us_here_are_2_obvious_but_key_strategies_that/)) and /r/Landlord ([this one]( https://www.reddit.com/r/Landlord/comments/7s7tjf/landlord_us_ive_put_together_some_key_strategies/)) and got a lot of requests about doing an AMA, so here we are. + +I encourage you to read those posts for some additional context, then ask away here. I'll be checking this thread throughout the next several days and will do my best to answer all questions. + + +### **Backstory** + +I am currently 31M, married, no kids, living in San Diego and working as a senior front-end engineer + running a real estate startup on the side. + +My portfolio consists of 35 total units, mostly 4-plexes, with a duplex and some SFRs sprinkled here and there. 3 units in San Diego, 1 in Atlanta, 3 in Birmingham, 28 in Kansas City. + +My units cash flow between $250-$350/door and the total cash flow of the portfolio is about $10-11k/month (accounting for vacancies as well). My average COC return at purchase is about 15% and long-term IRR is usually 20%+. + +All properties are financed. The only financing I have ever used was conventional loans (as many as they would let me) and later commercial financing on multi-family properties. Never had any partners (besides my wife), never did syndicate deals, no seller financing, no other creative financing. + +How did I get here? I did a pretty long podcast not too long ago, where I share more details, so if you're interested, [have a listen]( https://www.passiverealestateinvesting.com/from-zero-to-35-rentals-in-4-years-a-client-success-story/). + +Here are the important parts: + +* Joined the US Navy out of high school, active duty (Fire Controlman). Served most of the time in Japan. + +* Both parents passed away in 2008-2010. I was left with a single condo where they lived. At first, I was going to sell it, but decided to rent it out through a local property manager (I was in Japan at the time). Cash flow was terrible, so that didn't really give me much encouragement to pursue real estate at the time.. + +* 2013: Left the Navy, moved back to San Diego, got a regular job (electronics technician at first). Decided to give real estate another shot. After about 6 months of searching, found a duplex that needed a good amount of work in a B- area. Moved in one of the units with my wife, rented out the other. She was not very happy, but this turned out a great investment over time and we eventually moved out. + +- 2014 - 2015: Ready to buy more properties, but real estate in San Diego is too expensive and cash flow almost non-existent. Started looking out of state. Decided it was too risky to try to buy/rehab myself, so ended up buying 4 turnkey SFRs in Atlanta and Birmingham. Cash flow was good and prices started appreciating over the years, so still happy with these homes. + +- 2016: Felt more confident with managing out of state rentals and owning properties in general, so decided that I could make more money by buying value-add properties off MLS or private sellers. After extensive research, decided on Kansas City, flew out there, built a local network, started looking at 2-4 unit properties. Ended up buying three 4-plexes in a private sale because the agent tipped me off. + +- 2017: Feeling more comfortable in Kansas City, but was having a hard time finding new deals on the MLS (spent about 10 months looking). Decided to do a direct mail campaign to a very select group of multi-family property owners (about 100 total). Hand wrote the letters, added photos of their exact houses, sent out myself. Ended up landing 4 sales for more 4-plexes. + +- 2018: Taking a little break for the first 6 months, focusing on doing rolling rehabs on all units I picked up in 2017, raising rents to market, improving general operations. Will start looking for more in the summer (already have some possible leads from the mail campaign). + + +### **Future Plans** + +My original goal was to get to 50 units before turning 40, so I'm quite a bit ahead of schedule. Barring anything crazy, I anticipate to get there within the next 1-2 years (15 more units to go). + +This will put my passive income somewhere in the neighborhood of $15k/month or $180k/year. I'm not sure I want to retire quite yet, so I will most likely continue with the same strategy, buying more units up to 65-75 total. + +I'm also planning to do a full review of my entire portfolio (now that there are a few years of operational history), sell the underperforming properties (and probably most SFRs) and re-invest into better performing multi-family buildings. I'm also considering focusing on larger apartment complexes, but we'll see. + + +### **Key Takeaways** + +It's hard to pin point a single thing that helped me the most. Some may say I was fortunate or "lucky" at several points in my life, but I think a steady, consistent growth strategy is what played the biggest role. + +Here are some other things: + +#### *Maximizing my income* +Since I didn't rely on any "creative" financing strategies, all of the deals I've done required some cash from me to close. Now that I buy value-add properties, I also finance the rehabs myself. + +What really helped is maximizing my income from my full-time job and side-business. I went from being active duty in the Navy (around $40k/year) to senior front-end engineer (around $150k/year) and running a profitable startup (another $150k/year) on the side in a few years. + +Everybody's situation is different, but I think most of us can do at least something to increase their income. + +#### *Having a ~70% savings rate* +Throughout my adult life I have consistently maintained a savings rate of around 70%. Combined with the point above, this was really the key to saving money for the next property quickly. Especially in the last few years, as my income increased substantially, this really helped. + +Along the same lines, I've never touched any of my income from rental properties or other investments. 100% of that is re-invested. + +Again, I think this is something that can be done by anyone, regardless of their income level. I meet far too many people who make six figures and have almost no savings, because of their lifestyle choices. + +#### *Focusing on the right markets* +There isn't such a thing as "the best market". Macro and micro economic conditions are also always changing, so the markets that may be "good" for rental properties today will not be the same a year from now. + +I definitely would not consider myself an expert of picking rental markets, but I have talked to a lot of people who are a lot smarter than me and have developed a set of criteria that help me focus on where to invest next. + +Since where I live is so expensive, and I originally had limited funds (and wanted higher cash flow), I primarily focused on larger metropolitan areas with good economic and population projections, but which have strong cash flow and average property prices around $55-100k per door (for multi-family properties). + +Last time I did my "analysis" a few years ago, there were several promising candidates, including Atlanta, Dallas, Charlotte, Kansas City, Nashville. I ultimately settled on Kansas City and that's where I'm planning to buy in the next few years. + +#### *Being very conservative with cash flow projections* +I'm an analytical person by nature, so the whole process of analyzing potential cash flow from a rental property always appealed to me. + +I've always been extremely conservative when estimating cash flow projections. This probably caused me to pass on some "ok-good" deals, but ultimately got me "great" deals, which is what you obviously want. + +I never use rough estimates or the so-called "50% rule" (I think it's actually extremely misleading). I look up exact rental comps to estimate rents, I look up what insurance, management, utilities, and property taxes (after sale, NOT current) will be for each property. + +On top of that, I use high vacancy and maintenance estimates, basically accounting for the worst possible scenario. I've gotten into plenty of arguments with sellers over "my numbers", but this strategy has only done wonders for my returns. + +#### *Running my rental portfolio like a business* +I've figured out pretty early on that owning 1-2 properties isn't going to make me rich or allow me to retire early. After I set a goal to get 50 units, my brain started thinking on what I need to start doing NOW to make this possible at the end. + +And what I came up with is a realization, that I should treat this whole operation as a business, instead of just passive investments. So I focused on 2 things - building a network and a team of professionals to help me (property managers, agents, lenders, mortgage brokers, insurance guys, etc.); and training/teaching them to basically do most of the work for me. + +The biggest challenge of owning this many units, especially all over the country is management. I never self-managed a single property. I have always used property managers and over time developed a set of criteria for picking them, and a system for keeping them accountable. + +I don't get into day-to-day operations, but I basically groom each of my property managers to do the job for me in a way where I'm satisfied. It takes some work up front, but overtime pays off big time, as mutual trust and understand develops. + +*** + +Sorry for the long post, but wanted to give as much context as possible so you have some info to ask questions around. +Hi everyone. I wanted to just give a quick statement before I wind down for the night. u/WardenElite has stepped down as moderator and provided [this resignation post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ndg6oi/i_will_be_stepping_down_from_being_a_mod/). + +I received a lot of messages, saw a [very critical post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nddod9/exposing_warden_here_he_is_calling_superstonk/), and urgent insistence from several in my chats to remove Warden and resisted because we don't succumb to mob rule or witch hunts. The mods have a process and we take it seriously when we remove permissions or remove mods overall. This is to make sure the mods feel secure in their positions and take pride in their roles. + +I immediately opened dialogue with Warden and asked him to explain himself. He gave some basic reasoning, but as more evidence and screenshots came to light, I began to realize this was not something he could explain away. I told him that I think it'd be best if he resigned, but I will make a decision TONIGHT either way and he had to write his goodbye asap. + +I then opened a poll (we have a system) for the mods to review this evidence and decide what to do. I removed Warden's permissions while we held that vote; so all he could do is view mod log and see our mod chat. Many of you saw him on the mod list but know he was sitting there powerless while we reviewed everything. + +We asked many questions, and IMO he made minimal effort to defend his actions, explain himself, and made no efforts to prepare us or discuss with us before he made that post. As a result, we developed a serious loss of confidence. + +Warden also was busy, and unable to be in mod chat very often. He would not often hold discussions with us. His mod log was underwhelming, as well. We as mods were already a little peeved that he wasn't more involved, so when this happened, and we received minor explanation, the mood turned sour and many of us were very upset, and some of us [denounced him for it](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ndg93z/dispelling_denouncing_wardens_fud_market_limit/). + +Ultimately, Warden posted his resignation letter and removed himself as mod. I think he may have felt we should part ways, and I do as well. + +Superstonk is not a place for streamers to prioritize profits, or for mods to sit in discords insulting their members. Our motto is APE FIRST, MOD SECOND. And "mod first" or "selfish" actions are not part of the Superstonk Moderator methodology. It is literally in our code of ethics and expectations for mods. Warden knew this as it was discussed from the beginning. + +As many of you know, Superstonk was born in mod drama, so we are treading lightly when we handle it. I personally was jumped by a mod team and stripped of permissions, so I know how overwhelming it can be. I also quit my role and came here, and had a vision of free speech, fairness, and honesty. I have done my best to give this ideology to the other mods and we use it as a bonding agent so that we stay strong but also individual. You can all see the results of that. + +While it can be tempting to lose your temper and do things that are rash, we prioritize a simple series of ideas: to share information, to learn, to communicate, and to build a community. We communicate and work together daily. Mods who don't seem focused on those goals, seem to stand out rather easily. Our mod team embodies the values of this and Warden's departure will allow us to focus more on these values and overall I think r/Superstonk will benefit. + +I want to give u/WardenElite thanks for following us to Superstonk and being a mod while we built this grand community of super apes. I truly think we are one of the best subreddits on reddit, and I will always do right by the ape community; if not, I will do everything in my power to remedy it. I want to be fair to the community, but also the mods themselves. I don't like to act too rashly, nor with too strong a delay. I try to make good decisions, and I listen to you all. + +Warden is not banned. I have no current plans to ban him. He can still post. However, the rules will be enforced just like with the rest of the community. Thank you everyone. + +Red +If you have the habit of getting someone withdraw money for you using your ATM card, be warned. If something goes wrong during the transaction, you will lose the money and the bank will not be responsible for it. The sole reason being the fact that you have shared the PIN, which is non-transferable, and hence violated the norms the bank had set for card users as no person other than the account holder should use it. + +https://facelesscompliance.com/13331/husband-cannot-use-wifes-atm-card-sbi +This is pretty much the kind of stuff we usually get— she makes almost everything from scratch. This will pretty much get us through the rest of the month. + +I know I’m very fortunate that I have someone who is willing and able to put in the work to actually cook— not everyone has the time and energy or even skills to do it. + +Before we got together, I ate pretty much nothing but take-out and stuff out of boxes and it’s expensive (in more ways than one) to live that way. +A few years ago I was in a terrible job and I use to sit at my desk running FIRE calculations like a maniac and checking my portfolio daily. + +If I put away XX,XXX at X% returns I can leave the rat race in XX years! + +I would then play with those numbers. What if I do 8% instead of 7% or if I can manage to put in another 10k per year. + +I kind of felt like Andy Dufresne clawing his way to freedom. Just keep at it for years and eventually you can escape. + +I left that toxic job and I still play with FIRE calculations but prob 5% of what I use to and I check my portfolio maybe once a month now. + +I just share bc I wasn’t in a good headspace when I was checking figures like a maniac. + +It’s kind of that symptom/causes discussion. I wasn’t actually obsessed with FIRE I just hated my job that much and burying your head for 10+ years for a shit employer isn’t anyway to live. + +If you’re running the same numbers an hour or two a day it’s probably a good sign you need to look at the bigger picture with your current situation and fix that first. +When we look days that are called “black” like “black Monday” or “Black Tuesday”, the whole market just collapsed. How does that happen? Do a group of large stock holders around the market like big institutions the night before just say “alright guys, tomorrow we unload and sell off”? I’m not even talking about today. I’m talking about before algorithm trading days. + +I’m not necessarily asking “why” they happen, but rather “how” and how it happens at such a speed. To me, it’d make more sense to have the market climb for months and years and then peak and then just starting going down hill slowly rather than just a sudden drop. It seems almost like a coordinated and planned drop by people who hold enough shares to tank the market and then panic sellers come in and that’s when they really help with plummeting the market. +With the increase in money supply, as well as general expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, combined with prolonged supply shocks due to COVID, why hasn’t the US experienced hyperinflation? If it is at least partially due to decreased consumer demand thanks to quarantine, considering most states or opening up- especially ones with large economies like California and New York- do you expect inflation to soar? +Many of you may know what the SIM swap scam is, however, I did not, and unfortunately, I got the opportunity to learn the hard way on Christmas Eve. If you're not going to read the rest of this, here's the quick take-away: If you unexpectedly receive a text message from your mobile carrier providing you with a PIN, do NOT ignore it. Call your provider immediately and take action because someone is likely trying to gain temporary access to your number (or someone else's on your plan) and the damage they can cause is far-reaching. + +My wife and I began receiving texts and voicemail from T-Mobile on Christmas Eve morning. The texts would include one-time PINs, and the voicemail was from T-Mobile representatives apologizing for getting disconnected. Each time, we would call T-Mobile and speak to a representative and inform them that someone was trying to gain access to our account. And each time, the representative would assure us that there is no way it would happen due to the notes and flags they were putting on our account. I was even laughed at the 4th time I called when I got put on the line with the same representative I spoke to the 2nd time, as she thought it was silly that I was so concerned. When I asked why this person would be working so hard just to swap a SIM, I was told it was probably so he/she could make international calls on our account. +On our 5th call, in the middle of anther one of these assurance speeches, it happened. My wife's phone lost service. I interrupted the T-Mobile representative and informed her, who in disbelief began the process of routing the SIM back to my wife's phone. Roughly 5 minutes later my wife is back online, but there's a big problem: she can no longer sign in to our Wells Fargo account. That's when it clicked for us: he spent all day trying to get access, got turned down countless times until one bad T-Mobile representative granted his request, just so that he could use our number to reset our Wells Fargo password. The fact that it was Christmas Eve evening when it all went down likely wasn’t a coincidence either as Wells Fargo and T-Mobile storefronts were all closed, and getting help wasn’t easy. +Fortunately, we caught it just in time and we were able to get Wells Fargo on the phone and our accounts locked down. The only actions he was able to take was to move money across multiple accounts into one, with the intention of making an ATM withdrawal (according to a Wells Fargo employee familiar with this scam). +We spent the better part of the day after Christmas undoing the damage: closing and opening Wells Fargo accounts, turning back on online access, switching mobile providers, …etc. I’m left feeling vulnerable. Despite all our calls and our warnings to T-Mobile, they still let the fraudster in. Immediately after we locked down our Wells Fargo account, as in not even 2 minutes afterwards, I was back on the phone with T-Mobile, because they had “someone on the line who wants to swap SIM cards and I just need to get your permission to go ahead”. I felt helpless because obviously T-Mobile was doing nothing to prevent this from happening. When I suggested that we shut the whole thing down and cancel our T-Mobile account entirely, going without service for the remainder of Christmas Eve and Christmas day, I was informed that while our representative could do that, she couldn’t ensure that the fraudster wouldn’t be able to call in and turn everything back on. +We ended up making it out okay, and it appears that after the fraudster realized he wasn’t going to get anything out of our Wells Fargo accounts, he moved on. I’m not sure at all that switching to a new carrier will prevent this from happening, but due to T-Mobile’s response, or the absolute lack-there-of, I felt I had no choice. I want to make others aware of this as we might have had more options had we known what was going to happen when we first started receiving unexpected texts and voicemail from T-Mobile. Please do take it very serious and act quickly if you suspect this is happening to you. + + +One of the foundations of modern mainstream economics is the concept that people behave in the market as rational agents who choose what's best for their self-interest, but clearly, there are some goods and services that may still keep being demanded even if they're not in the best interest of the consumers. For blatant abuse, economists would say that the government can step in and regulate it, such as opioids and other drugs. However, there are some cases where the abuse isn't clear, such as companies that uses child psychology to better market their products to children, or social media features that keeps you hooked even though it has negative effects on your mental health. + +It's fair to say that, sometimes, people are unable to weigh opportunity costs rationally. What's the current consensus in economics about all of these? +For those who are officially in the game (aka over the learning phase at the beginning and actually making profits) how much time are you allocating to trading per day? And are you making consistently more per hour than a regular job? +EDIT: Musk now says that *"To clarify speculation, Tesla has not sold any Bitcoin"* - https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1394170030741413888?s=19 + + +@CryptoWhale: "Bitcoiners are going to slap themselves next quarter when they find out Tesla dumped the rest of their #Bitcoin holdings. With the amount of hate @elonmusk is getting, I wouldn’t blame him…" + +Elon Musk [replies](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1394001894809427971) with "Indeed" + +He could be trolling, mind... Do you think Tesla have genuinely sold all of its Bitcoin holdings? + +What do you think the impact will be if so? Particularly directed at those who are very long Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. +Look at everything being pushed right now. Shoved in our faces is "omg $30 and we squeeze" "omg ortex lying about short interest" "omg mod drama because ortex was manually approved to post" and what is the absolute fucking **BANGER** of a piece of information that is conveniently *not* being pushed right now? Oh yeah. Credit Suisse. + +I just can't shake the feeling that all of this stuff coming up (and being pushed, let's call a spade what it is) right AFTER credit suisse's meltdown 2 days ago is no accident. I highly suspect that credit suisse made a huge mistake or had an internal weakness that led to some real data being spit out, and they are currently in full damage control mode. The borrowed shares are likely due to their failure to deliver shares when they were supposed to, resulting in the shares being loaned out from DTC. (Seriously, read Naked Short and Greedy, like the first 40 pages explains this in detail.) + +I believe Credit Suisse is in the process of being bailed out by DTC and its members, helping them roll this FTD cycle. Somehow we were able to see this bailout happen in real time, through Ortex. (and I also believe Ortex knows this or at least suspects it) I believe this is the crucial piece of information trying to be slid away from our forum. + +Anyway, DRS and buy from Computershare. It's our best defense against this systemic allowance of FTDs and really the only way we'll win this thing. +The January "incident" was incredibly serious. Rather than getting off their asses and doing their jobs the SEC have given the hedgefunds THREE WHOLE MONTHS to try to defeat us. + +Lets recap some of the tools the hedgefunds have had at their disposal during these three months : + +&#x200B; + +1. Social media infiltration / Manipulation +2. Misinformation and lies in the broadcast media across the board +3. High frequency trading manipulation and fuckery +4. Resetting FTD time limits with even more fuckery +5. Naked Short selling + +They have been able to run wild for three months. Only now do I get the impression that the SEC know they have no choice but to step in. The SEC wouldn't have even put out a press statement if we had all sold up and gone home. + +The SEC is not your friend. +I’m a business owner and we’re bringing in around 400k-600k profit at the moment. It’s been a crazy journey. + +However, as privileged as I am to be in this position, it has required a lot of hard work and sacrifice. I basically have no social life and work 70 hours a week. I save and invest everything I can and have no doubt I’ll have a $10m net work by the time I’m 35. + +How do you keep reminding yourself it’s worth it? + +Is there anything you actually recommend spending money on in your mid 20s to reward yourself? + +**Edit** + +Wow this got such a great response, thanks for all the positivity and great advice, couple of things to clear up + +1- I have to be vague as I am relatively well known (my personal brand) but the business is essentially an analysis firm that offers services and consulting to media companies. We currently have 2 Fortune 500 clients and many smaller businesses too. + +2 - I’m 25 and I’m happy to validate my claims with mods if they’d like, got a few accusations of lying but I have no reason to do so, happy to provide proof privately. +Hoping to FIRE at some point and plan on investing in some real within the next 5 years once I get enough capital (possibly a duplex). + +Just curious, those who live off your rental properties, what is your portfolio like? How many buildings do you have? Units? And is the cost of living in your area high. + +I appreciate any insight. Thanks! + Seems to me that this re branding and Metaverse hype is really just an attempt to drive attention away from the recent confirmation that FB is actually horrible for our societies. Trying to keep the stock buoyed while deflecting. I've never been a heavy user of FB, always found it creepy, but I bought the IPO and bough more when it dropped to the $20 level. Been holding since. Now, I'm thinking of selling. It's been a good run for FB but their user base isn't growing with younger people and frankly I'm not sure I want to be invested in a company that is so blatantly bad for humanity. FB is on the verge of becoming like Philip Morris and listening to Zuch today... (he's just so insincere & unlikable) it's clear that neither he or FB is interested in addressing the issues. Not to mention the Metaverse is 10y out. I'm disappointed in this company and to quote Kramer (ya, I know) re. the recent FB news “This time just feels different.” +I was unfortunately apart of some management meetings recently where potential for layoffs were discussed. Department heads need to start looking for a few staffers to potentially cut and all that. + +One individual said something to the effect of “I know ABC individuals max out their 401ks, so they’re in a good financial situation, they can afford to lose their job”. I was so taken by surprise by that statement...was curious if anyone else has been a part of discussions like this, and if it’s widespread? +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/bezos-s-wealth-soars-to-171-6-billion-to-top-pre-divorce-record + +Jeff Bezos’s net worth has smashed through its previous peak, even after he relinquished a quarter of his stake in Amazon.com Inc. as part of a divorce settlement last year. + +Shares of the Seattle-based retailer surged 4.4% to a record $2,878.70 Wednesday, boosting the founder’s world-leading fortune to $171.6 billion. That tops his previous high of $167.7 billion, set on Sept. 4, 2018, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. +I’ve joined this community some months ago and i have to admit it’s really heartbreaking to read some of your stories here. I’m full of anger and sadness knowing how one’s life savings can vanish in an instant because of astronomically expensive medical bills. I cannot fathom how some people still defend this disgusting, greedy corporate system that is slowly letting modest hardworking citizens die alone. + +The sole thought of not having public healthcare with all the medical ordeals i went through really makes me shiver and leaves me wondering if i would still be alive without it. + +This isn’t a very useful post, i admit. But i really felt the need to tell all of you currently struggling, that you have my utmost respect and admiration for trying to pull through all of this social and economic hell. + +There is always something out there for all of us. I sincerely wish you good luck, and i really hope that the clouds will disperse for all of you. + +This is highandautistic’s partner of 7.5 years, and I wanted to post here because this community was so incredibly important to him. This past weekend he passed away in a tragic climbing accident (at the age of 35). I may not have the right words right now but I wanted to try and express my appreciation for this community. My partner has always been a dreamer, and GameStop gave him something big to dream about. He suffered from a very difficult bout of depression last year and it was this community that gave him something to truly hold onto. We would spend our nights watching videos about our dream houses, and we often fantasized about all of the adventures we wanted to go on in the future. He talked to me about his hopes that all of us apes could change the world together, he wanted to do so much good. + +My partner wanted to build low income housing communities where people struggling financially like us could get their bearings. He also fully and excitedly supported my dream of having an animal sanctuary. Most recently, he was brainstorming about a online community where people could find information about every politician and person in power worldwide, and who was financially backing them. He wanted to create a space where true transparency would be possible. + +I wanted to share some of him with all of you because he loved this community so much, and you gave us both something to look forward to in this life. He had all of our shares (our savings) directly registered under his name so I may never have access to them, but at least they may live forever in the infinity pool. + +My partner had a difficult time in life but he never ever let that dim his dreams or his love of life and adventure. He was pure and true and genuine and only wanted great things for this world. He often wore his GameStop hoodie and tshirt proudly, and he would walk around absolutely beaming. He also used his GameStop beer glass I had made for every celebratory beer he had. This weekend I will be repping GameStop in his shirt at his memorial. + +He was filled with so much passion and magic, and his smile was the most contagious one I have ever seen. You all brought him so much joy, so thank you for that. I lost the absolute love of my life but posting this has allowed me to feel close to him for a moment. I hope some of his spirit inspires you all. + +*edit* + +Wow. I’m at a loss for words (genuinely). You all have me crying and laughing and appreciating this community so much. I know that he would have loved this. I haven’t made it through all of the comments but you all have made my day a little bit brighter. This community is beautiful and I will be here reading and learning in his honour. + +I hope my loss makes you all appreciate your loved ones a little harder, and remember that tomorrow is never guaranteed. I took the time I had with my love for granted waiting for our future together, please remember to live in the present as well. + +As for all of the advice about CS I will definitely look into that when things are a little bit easier, thank you all ❤️ I am next of kin so it sounds as though I may be able to HODL in his honour. +G'day cunts, I've missed shitposting with y'all this past week but I'm proud/scared to see DLC taking a deeper place inside this sub. If ASIO asks, I hadn't nothing to do with it. + +In the meantime, I've been distracting myself from real life tasks by joining the algo revolution and learning how to use python for finance. Being a masterful procrastinator, I took on the challenge of using nerd power to figure out how much of a meme Red Fridays are. + +#**What do I mean by Red Friday?** + +Since I've been on this sub, the general sentiment is that the market shits the bed more often than not at the end of the week. Pre-market threads are filled with nervous posts, and orders for lube in preparation for the onslaught of red triangles. +But what if there was a way to turn the tide on the Friday red market dildo, and shove a green one back up Tomsexx? + +#**What are BBOZ/BBUS?** + +Once upon a time, BBOZ and BBUS were the hottest tickers on this sub. Veterans of this sub already know them intimately, having being fucked hard post pandemic crash last year. + +[BBOZ](https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/) and [BBUS](https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/us-equities-strong-bear-fund/) are leveraged BEAR ETFS (🌈🐻). Their value is negatively correlated to the S&P/ASX 200 (BBOZ) and S&P 500 (BBUS). For every 1% decrease in the ASX/US markets, BBOZ/BBUS should increase 2-2.75%, and they go down the same amount for a market increase. If the market is going up, putting your money into BBOZ/BBUS is an excellent way to lose it. By design, they go down over time, but they let people hedge their more risky positions, which none of you fuckers care about anyway. + + +#**The Hypothesis** + +So with this 🌈🐻 primer, we are ready to experiment. + +If the market does indeed crash regularly on Friday, and we are not being [Fooled by Randomness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness), we can use BBOZ/BBUS to make money. + +All we have to do is buy BBOZ/BBUS at open on Thursday, and sell at close on Friday. A simple strategy, which I tested with historical data scraped from Yahoo Finance. + +#**Nerd Method Shit** + +Using the [Yfinance library](https://github.com/ranaroussi/yfinance), I yoinked the opening and closing prices of BBOZ/BBUS over the 1yr and 3yr time periods. I then ran a script that would buy at open on a given weekday, and sell at close the next day (e.g Buy Monday Open, Sell Tuesday Close). This gives me data sets to compare for this swing strategy to see if what day you choose really makes a difference. Each transaction includes the $9.50 Brokerage fee that you would pay from using SelfWealth. Because this script trades frequently, brokerage fees are a fucking bitch and you have to stay the fuck away from that slut Tommsex with his cucked progressive fees. The higher your starting portfolio balance, the lower the relative percentage cost is for brokerage therefore you make more money. If you tried this starting with only $1k, you would need to make on average (9.50/1000) = 1.9% return with each trade to profit. + +Starting with a balance of $10k, well below what many of you degenerates are fine with risking daily, I plotted the results for each Swing day pair, and compared it to the return of the ASX/200 (IOZ) over the same time period as a benchmark. + +#**Result 1, Don't do this with BBUS** + +[Here are the results from Swing trading BBUS.](https://imgur.com/a/BdNEs09) **They are fucking garbage**. You'd make more money in DLC over the same time. The Thursday to Friday swing does perform the best out of all combinations, and give a positive return, but if you sat $10k in IOZ you'd be $2k richer. + +There is a fun peak visible in the 3yr chart during the 🌈🐻 Pandemic Party for Wed-Thurs Swinging, but over time we see the Account Balance dwindle. This is what we should expect from the natural decay of the BBUS instrument if there are no days where the market regularly drops. + + +#**Result 2, BBOZ = $$$$$$$$, RED FRIDAYS ARE NOT A MEME 🤡🤡🤡** + +[Here are the fucking cooked returns for BBOZ.](https://imgur.com/a/P6n8CXe) I don't know what to say. Finance is a lie. If you bought BBOZ at Thursday Open, and sold on Friday Close, every week for the past 52 weeks, **you would have an 84% Return**. Starting with $10k, you would finish with **$8.4k profit**, and **beat the index cucks by ~$5k**. + +Looking across the 3yr period, we see this strategy fails before the pandemic, but something fucking crazy has happened. The market gods have henceforth declared Friday to be Red as a sacrifice, perhaps in exchange for the insane recovery. + +Breaking down the data further, [here are normalized histograms of the return % for each trade](https://imgur.com/a/RBwaUrm) across the respective time period for the Thurs-Friday swing. From a simple gaussian fit, the average return for a Thurs-Friday Swing is +1.281% over the past year, with a standard deviation of 3.295%. + +#**Conclusions** + +Red Friday has been real for the past pandemic year in Australia, but does not work using BBUS. We haven't been imagining things, this is a real phenomenon. If you had acted on this exploit, with this strategy **your portfolio would be up +84%**, starting from $10k and using SelfWealth. + +#**Why am I posting this here for everyone to see?** + +**1. I want validation and I want to show off my new python skills.** + +**2. I don't have enough money to exploit this properly, its all tied up in Uranium** + +I will not be trading BBOZ weekly, in spite of this stupidly high return that exploits a literal ASX_Bets meme. + +**3. Past Performance =/= future results.** + +Just because it has happened historically, does not mean it will continue. Its a weird, spontaneous pattern that hasn't gone away and has fucked us repeatedly this past year. Maybe this post will change that. + +**4. Its fucking hilarious and I can't not share this now** + +#Appendix: Return of Green Monday + +So just as an afterthought, I tested the corollary, what happens if you buy the Long leveraged ASX ETF (GEAR) for the same swing? + +[Here are the results.](https://imgur.com/a/cZO40Ro) Monday to Tuesday swing returns the greatest, at 94%. GEAR has performed very nicely this year, as you can see with the black line, but the Mon-Tues Swing is still beating it. What would happen if you combined the BBOZ/GEAR swing? 🤔 + +#Appendix 2: I am an unstoppable Leverage Monster (combined BBOZ/GEAR Play, 270% return) + +Alrighty so after that cliffhanger of an appendix, this is the result. Took around 1hr of abusing my spaghetti code to produce this [INFINITE MONEY GLITCH](https://imgur.com/a/sC2xtGe) (leverage is one hell of a drug). + +Just ignore the awful market performance in the 3yr chart pre-pandemic crash, something has happened that has made this play insane this year and I don't know what, I'm tired and getting lost in the sauce, catch y'all tomorrow. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hello everyone. It’s me again. This time I’m not telling you about Sluggs or Snakes. I want to talk about something that was just released by The European Bank yesterday, May 19th and is flying under the radar EVERYWHERE for some reason. I’m not a financial advisor. I manage a warehouse for a construction company and I’m really stupid but the following information, I feel, is very important to review. If I’m wrong or stupid ANYWHERE. Let’s discuss! Let’s get brain juices flowing! + +The European Bank, of which 19 countries are members, just issued a Financial Stability Review - [Financial Stability Review, May 2021 (europa.eu)](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202105~757f727fe4.en.html) \- which I only caught because of this very minor article on Barrons - [European Central Bank Warns on Heightened Risks to Financial Stability | Barron's (barrons.com)](https://www.barrons.com/articles/european-central-bank-warns-on-heightened-risks-to-financial-stability-51621439308) The Barrons Article is a great TLDR – Basically everything fucked. HODL. (Edit: This article has now been paywalled) + +But let us dive a tad further PAST that into the actual report released by The EB. I’m just going to write my general thoughts, I’m not smart enough to do an extreme breakdown but I encourage EVERYONE to read the article and grow a few wrinkles. + +The beginning part of the article explains that risks because of the pandemic remain high and that corporates and banks need continued protection in order to prevent insolvency issues. You see, many of these banks and corporates or hedge funds would have gone bust in 2020 because of how over leveraged they were if it weren’t for the help they got from their respective Federal Reserve (US) or the European Bank (EU). Basically, the can got kicked down the road, money printers went BRRR. The day is saved. So far. + +The VERY first crayon munching picture that everyone can understand is presented. Look it over. What is being predicted going into 2022? + +Then the article discusses the US yields and Bonds. Basically, how the US kept itself afloat and the risks associated with it in Charts 1 and 2. Chart 3 discusses what we already know. Many Hedge Funds are overleveraged and exposed to failure which leads to increased risk to those lending to them. This has caused a decrease in liquidity. Quote “Cash buffers and liquid asset holdings are now below PRE-PANDEMIC levels and approaching NEW LOWS, leaving the sector highly vulnerable to fire sales of assets in the event of large-scale redemptions.” (DANGER ZONE by Kenny Loggins) + +Chart 4 – More leverage, more vulnerabilities, more insolvencies. Look at the right chart and it’s cliff notes. It’s projected that since 2019 more and more corporate insolvencies will occur. + +Chart 5 discusses how this will affect everyday Europeans oh, and the real estate sector is going to go boom if a financial crisis does happen. (In a VERY bad way. 🔥 🔥 🔥) + +The report continues that while the Market overall has been doing great! Banks are not making a profit. What is going on? They claim they don’t really know but because of this Banks are not willing to loan as much suddenly anymore despite how good they all should be doing. Quote “Early signs of rise in loan impairments are becoming increasingly visible.” + +Then it starts breaking down many things of which I’m going to generally gloss over but please read it in your spare time. The next Chart we should look at is 1.12 – how a backlog of insolvencies will cause challenges in the EU. The expected default frequency is forecasted in this chart and compared to the 2008 Financial Crisis. Shit is FUCKED. + +The report goes on into how the US Markets are affecting Euro Markets. To quote “At the end of January 2021, groups of retail investors (THAT’S US) bought several US small cap stocks where leveraged investors had large short exposures. Their actions, coordinated on social media, pushed those stock prices to high levels, thereby imposing substantial losses on short sellers such as hedge funds that were forced to buy the underlying shares to close their positions.” READ THIS ENTIRE SECTION. It’s uncessary for me to quote the whole thing but READ IT. They specifically talk about options and how their unwinding will have spillover into the broader marker. They cite Archegos specifically. Going on they state again “…That bank asset quality is likely to deteriorate further over 2021.” + +Chart 4.5 – Funds’ cash buffers continue to fall while liquid asset holdings remain stable. (In my mind, this is like the part in The Big Short where Steve Carell and his buddies are being asked to pony up more money for their shit even though their shit was literally FULL of shit.) + +The report even addresses ‘Zombie’ firms. Aka Shell Companies and how they are gonna fuck shit up if not addressed AND SOON. + +Ok. That’s all I can fit into this post because my lunch break is over and hopefully smarter people than me will pick up on this and explain more. Guys. This is “I GOTTA CALL MY MOM” kind of a big deal. The news is NOT reporting this information but the banks can’t hide it anymore. Shit is going down. Keep Holding. I love you all and good luck going into our new future. Do good. Use this information for good and all gains you may possibly get for the betterment of all. Be excellent to each other! + +Obligatory Rockets - 🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit 1: just before I go back to work. I googled to see if the US Government has reported anything similar to this. Holy Shit. They have. Back on the 6th. Why has nobody noticed this? Why is the Media not sounding the alarm??? + +https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/may-2021-purpose.htm + +I don’t have time to do anything more than glance over it but guys. The Federal Reserve is saying basically the same thing but with way more bullshit and “Don't worry about it!” Language. But the underlying message, if you read past it. Is the same. Shit. Is. Fucked. + +Edit 2: u/attobitt u/heyitspixel or u/rensole help bringing more eyes on this? + +Edit 3: Apparently Zombie Funds 🧟 are MUCH more dangerous than just a shell company. u/RedMageMood sent this to me. + +“read the paper you shared about financial stability. + +Zombie firms aren't shell companies, they're much worst. They're companies that aren't profitable at all yet still run, these companies carry large debt and are planned to NEVER turn a profit. They are true full blown ponzie schemes where they start off by collecting a round of investors in some new tech or idea, make a prototype, have a press release, then have another round of funding and collect new investors. That new funding is then used to pay off the initial investors, but after expenses, expansions, salaries and other payments nessessary they are still in the hole. + +These companies do this forever, another word for them is GROWTH companies or growth sector. https://finbox.com/ideas/zombie-companies-list , a lot of these companies are actually in large ETF's such as SPY and NASDAQ. These aren't just venture capital endeavors, some are major corporations such as Mattel inc., other famous zombie firms are UBER, Doordash, and most tech darlings. + +The problem with them is what happens when funding stops for even 1 round, and then debt is carried over to the next fiscal year. Also what happens when their "growth" is already priced in and invested on by major hedge firms and ETF's, except most positions are on MARGIN. + +What will happen when the growth companies stop growing, yet people spent money on it to grow with fake overleveraged money?“ +They pretended to be me in a hospital saying I needed $750 for a lifesaving surgery after being in a car accident. + + They had a lot of my personal information which is frightening. + +I have the number they used, who should I report them to? what can I do to stop them? + + +EDIT: Thank you all for the advice, I have forwarded the number to the local PD and notified them. However, it is probably a spoof. Luckily no money was sent to these scammers, they even became extremely hostile when my grandfather called BS. +Hello everyone! This might be an unpopular opinion, but I've been a subscriber here for 7+ years and one of my favorite things to read are the humblebrag "how you got to where you are" milestone stories. This is the 3rd milestone story that I've posted: I made [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/atx838/just_hit_300k_nw_26_years_old_82k_income_heres_my/) post once *I* hit $300k and then I made [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/duvs6d/we_just_hit_500k_nw_25_26_years_old_156k_dink/) post once I got married and *we* hit $500k. + +Those older posts have some great background on our childhoods, parents, college years, monthly budgets, and advantages along the way. I won't rehash those things here because I want to keep this post more numbers-oriented. Feel free to ask any questions you have. + +**Current Net Worth: $1,005,850** + +* **Net Worth Over Time** + * 2013: **$2k** + * 2014: **$20k** + * 2015: **$54k** + * 2016: **$76k** + * 2017: **$152k** + * 2018: **$264k** + * 2019: **$361k** + * 2020: **$536k** + * 2021: **$794k** + * Today: **$1,005k** +* **Net Worth Breakdown by Account** + * Savings Account: **$16,499** + * 401(k)s: **$458,687** + * Roth IRAs: **$168,094** + * HSAs: **$32,345** + * Taxable Investments: **$260,148** + * Home Equity: **$70,077** +* **Net Worth Breakdown by Asset Type** + * Cash: **$16,499** (2%) + * Investments: **$919,274** (91%) + * Home Equity: **$70,077** (7%) + +**Current Household Income: $197,000** + +* 2013: Both in college working part-time jobs. +* 2014: Both in college working part-time jobs. +* 2015: **$55k** (My full-time starting salary after graduating. My wife was still in college.) +* 2016: **$65k** (Still just me working. My wife was still in college.) +* 2017: **$122k** (Me: $69k. Wife: $53k. She finally graduated and started her first full-time job.) +* 2018: **$141k** (Me: $81k. Wife: $60k.) +* 2019: **$159k** (Me: $89k. Wife: $70k.) +* 2020: **$169k** (Me: $98k. Wife: $71k.) +* 2021: **$197k** (Me: $121k. Wife: $76k.) + +**Annual Spending** + +* 2015: Still finishing up college. +* 2016: **$30k** +* 2017: **$33k** (Higher because we bought, renovated, and furnished a condo.) +* 2018: **$38k** (Higher because we spent $10k on our wedding.) +* 2019: **$30k** +* 2020: **$21k** (Lower because of reduced travel spending due to COVID.) + +**General Habits Worth Mentioning:** + +* We've maxed out our 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, and HSAs every year since starting our full-time jobs, plus invested the excess in a taxable account. +* We've never invested in bitcoin or anything like that, just boring old Vanguard index funds. Vanguard is showing our personal rate of return since 2013 as 16.30%, which is historically high, but only slightly better than the S&P 500 during that time. +* We love to travel. We go on 3-5 trips per year to National Parks, European cities, etc. that we fund via "credit card travel hacking" courtesy of [r/churning](https://www.reddit.com/r/churning/). +* Unlike a lot of people on this sub, we've introduced the idea of FIRE to most of our close friends. Our parents and siblings also know our FIRE goals, but we set clear boundaries. We're pretty open about our journey and try to help others if they are interested. Because of this, our 15-20 closest friends are all into FIRE as well. We hang out with friends 1-2 nights per week, but instead of "going out for drinks" (we don't drink alcohol anyways...) we go over to each other's homes for home-cooked dinners and board games. I say this because we have a good social network, but don't have to spend a ton to maintain it. **Having a like-minded SO and like-minded friends have been two of the most important contributors to our happiness and high savings rate.** +* Saving this much and maintaining a 70%+ savings rate hasn't been "hard" for us. We don't have to try very hard to accomplish these goals - it's just who we are. We are natural savers. We buy everything that we want...we just find that we don't "want" a lot of the typical things that other people "want" (luxury cars, eating out, 5-star hotels, brand-name clothes, $30k wedding, huge home, etc.). + +Feel free to ask me any questions you may have about our life or FIRE journey. + +**TLDR: 2 like-minded FIRE people fall in love, make decent money, live a very frugal life, and save $1 million by age 28.** + I just bought a home in Western Washington north of Seattle. It’s a large beautiful home with a view, lots of sunlight, a hot tub, an above ground pool, in a nice town with good schools, and has a good commute for me and my girlfriend. + +On paper it is perfect. The day after I moved in I started feeling terrible realizing that my core group of friends (basically family at this point) lives 1hr to 1.5hrs away. I should have bought in the town my friends live in, which is South of Seattle. The town with friends is over 1.5hrs closer to skiing (each way), 35 minutes closer to hiking/mountain biking (each way), is closer to my family by 20 minutes to 50 minutes. The Schools in the other town are amazing. + +The only downsides to the other town is it would be about an hour commute for my girlfriend if/when they go back to the office 1-2 days per week, and home prices there are 10-15 percent higher, and the housing market is insane to get into. It will be a long hard challenge to get even a decent house there. + +I have only been at my new home for two weeks. I could lose up to 30k from a sale this fast due to commissions, and the mortgage of a new home would be at least 500 dollars more a month. If I rent this house out and rent elsewhere I’d lose at least 1k per month. + +I feel alone this far from people I know, it prevents getting together easily, it would be nice to have people close to help in an emergency/watch the future kids/dogs for an hour etc. I used to live close to them all and don’t want to lose that. + +Is this a terrible idea? As of now I’m planning on listing it next weekend and seeing what I can get. +DM me, I'll message with you, I'll call you, I'll video call you, I'll talk to you until the early hours. I don't mean about DD and why haven't we mooned. This can be scary for Apes who may feel vulnerable. + +Mental health is important to take care of and I learned it the hard way, but I learned it and aquired skills that I use everyday to keep me in check. If anyone just wants someone to listen to them, I'm here. No judgement, just internet hugs, some big ears and maybe a different perspective. + +We are a big family now and I don't want any fellow Ape thinking they don't have anywhere to turn if this whole thing is overwhelming. + +We may all think that everyone just gets off Reddit and spends time with friends and family, but there are people who still feel alone. + +FYI I'm an Irish Ape and our timezones maybe different but don't worry, I got you. + +Positive vibes ✌️🤙🧘🌟 + +Edit: man the response has been amazing! To all the people who have reached out, I will keep responding and any new messages I will respond but I have to get some sleep. 1.30am here but I will respond to each and everyone of you. Know that everything you feel is normal. I hear you. + +And the fellow Apes who have opened there DM's, fantastic! + +To the negative sentiment Apes, I feel you, I understand. There's just Apes who need this and well, Apes strong together. +I have a 2010 Ford Focus with 86k miles. I was actually selling it and had 3 interested buyers for $4,000. The car had a dent already on the opposite side of the garbage truck impact. The city is basically saying without the dent my car would be worth $4,087 however the KBB value of it with the dent and scratch is $4,100 and in good/great condition $4,500-$5,000. So they are already low balling me there. Not only that but they said if I wanted a rental (the car was unable to be driven) I would need to go through my insurance and file a claim. My insurance said they should be paying for it. (previous accident the company of the truck that hit me paid for damages and a rental) +Now, to the price they are offering me because of the prior dent damage... $2,854 (tax included). Is there anything I can do about this? I really needed at least $4,000. +This is my first post on any financial/advice sub so please let me know if I'm in the right place or if there is any other information ya'll may need to know. +. +. +Edit: So I've gotten way more advice than I could have hoped for. A couple of things I have already done since posting. +I've used both KBB and NADA as well as looked at local postings of the same make, model, year of vehicles for sale. They are around and over $5,000 with well over 100K miles. So with the previous damage of a quoted "$1,400" I should still be getting close to $4,000 regardless. +I have spoken to my insurance company and will make a claim with them if I do not get a reasonable offer from the city in response to my documentation and email. Only reason I don't want to go initially through insurance is due to the fact that I will have to pay a deductible and risk my premium going up as some people have mentioned. Also, I recently reduced coverage on the vehicle. +. +Edit 2: Also, for those stating to claim injury or speak to injury attorneys / lawyers. I was not in the vehicle at the time of the incident. Garbage truck hit it, took off, then over an hour later came back down the other side of the street when the cop stopped him. He initially claimed to have not hit my car (grease and yellow paint all over my blue car) then claimed he didn't know he hit it even though the paint on his truck from my car seemed as if he tried scraping it off. Usually garbage trucks do not take over 30min to come back down the other side of our street either... +. +Edit 3: My state is Texas. I will be looking into filing a loss of use claim for sure. I will also be making some more phone calls to my insurance company and going from there. I have read a lot of your comments with similar stories who have had great outcomes. Hopefully I will report back with the same. Thank you all again for the good (and bad) advice and the cold hard truths of the possible negative outcomes o_o thanks +. +Edit 4: Last update for today until I reach a milestone. For those saying I need to use my insurance company, I was told by my insurance company that they can't do anything since I recently changed my coverage to Liability and Personal Injury. Didn't include collision due to me selling the vehicle soon. Just my shitty luck. So that's out of the question. On to fighting the city by myself with the help of Reddit. +Unless your company arbitrarily limits your contributions or you are a highly compensated employee you are able to contribute $18,500 into your 401(k) plan. In order to max out you would need to contribute $18,500 into the plan of your own money. + +All that being said. contributing to your 401(k) at any percentage is a good thing but I think people get the wrong idea by saying they max out because they are contributing say 6% and "maxing out the employer match" +* Q2 - July to Sep - GDP numbers were released earlier today +* The fashionable way to put it: "GDP print came out as negative 7.5% for the quarter' +* Many projections were -8% to double digits; so the numbers are better than projections +* Recession is defined as two successive quarters of de-growth. So India is in 'technical recession' +* 'Technical' since the expectation is that the trend has already reversed and there could be growth soon - some predictions for Q3 and the rest for Q4 +* Agriculture grew 3.4% and Manufacturing grew 0.6% +* Construction contracted 'only' 8.6% +I am following this stock, and for the last two weeks, Motley has come out with contradictory articles. One second they say it’s a buy then they say avoid it. Complete BS. They are just writing words for the sake of getting content out there, not to provide real value. Changing your opinion is good, don’t get me wrong, but if you do it every new article you write then you need to do better research. +Thankfully not me! + +&#x200B; + +My cubicle is right next to my boss's door and he and another manager discussed who to let go in a department that is slow. The guy to be let go was selected because he is "independently wealthy", "doesnt have a family to support", and "doesn't need the job". + +&#x200B; + +I always had a feeling talking about your wealth or early retirement goals could put a target on your back, now I know for sure! +Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/nike-shares-slip-heels-zion-williamson-sneaker-malfunction-n973971 + +> The freshman center, who plays for the Duke Blue Devils, suffered a mild sprain to his right knee, according to his coach Mike Krzyzewski... +> +> ... Williamson was wearing the Nike PG 2.5 basketball shoe when he was injured, according to ESPN. The line of sneakers are a product of a collaboration between the world's largest sportswear company and six-time NBA All-Star Paul George, who plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder. +This sub is full of ways dealers coerce or even trick buyers into purchasing extra stuff they don't need when they get you in the back room to do the payment and financing for a car. + +Question is - Are there *any* optional warranties, service contracts, whatevers, that you think are actually a smart buy? + [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-republicans-or-democrats-better-for-the-stock-market.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-republicans-or-democrats-better-for-the-stock-market.html) + +&#x200B; + +For investors worried about how the election will impact their portfolios over the long haul, fear not: Elections have seldom had a lasting impact on equity prices. + +President Donald Trump has warned that the stock market will crash if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the [presidential election](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/election-2020-live-results-updates-trump-biden.html). Some market experts have also raised concern about the potential for a “blue wave” if Democrats gain a majority in the Senate, win the White House and keep control of the House. + +However, history shows that stocks usually do well regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress.  + +“I think people overestimate the importance of politics for investing,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  + +### Are Republicans or Democrats better for stocks?  + +Data over the past 78 years shows that party control over either chamber has relatively little to do with long-term changes in the broad S&P 500 stock index. + +Starting in 1942, the numbers indicate that Republican and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate have had little impact on stock prices in the two years following an election.  + +The same holds true when you look at the number of party seats gained or lost in the House and Senate, against stock prices in the S&P 500 during that period.  + +The data yields similar results for the November to November cycle, which is a gauge of market sentiment to the election, as well as January to January, which shows the actual market performance of the Congress.  + +### Presidents and stocks  + +Where you start to see more of an impact is the combination of party control in both chambers of Congress.  + +Data compiled by LPL Financial shows that beginning in 1950, the average annual stock return was 17.2% under a split Congress, 13.4% when Republicans held both chambers, and 10.7% when Democrats had control. + +LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick said in a note that “markets tend to like checks and balances to make sure one party doesn’t have too much sway,” hence the stronger stock performance during a split Congress. + +But when you broaden it out even further to consider the party of the president in tandem with party control of the two chambers, the trend of a split Congress being best for stocks doesn’t always hold true.  + +Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist, looked at how the market has performed under six political scenarios: a White House and Congress all under the same party, a White House with a split Congress, and a White House and Congress hailing from two different parties. Stovall included election data going back to 1945. + +Of all the possible combinations, stocks appear to perform best when a Democrat is in the White House and the Congress is split. The second highest returns happen when a Democrat is president and Republicans control the Congress. + + + +But ultimately, Stovall said, investors should be wary of reading too much into these numbers.  + +“It’s a good example of how you can have data tell whatever story you want,” he said. “If you want to favor the Democrats, talk about the presidency. If you want to favor the Republicans, talk about House control.“ + + +Bob French, director of investment analysis at McLean Asset Management, agrees. “We can go in and slice and dice the data however we want and most of the time come up with whatever answer we want.” + +However the vote plays out Tuesday, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks the stock market is poised to take off. + +“At least 90% of \[our\] portfolio strategy would be identical under either win,” Lee said in a note on Oct. 6. In either case, Lee predicts the outcome of the election will be bullish for stocks. +The proposed scheme will feed into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF which has an expense ratio of just 0.03%. Under the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) rules, the expense ratio of the Indian fund house cannot be more than twice the underlying fund. This would cap the expense ratio of the Navi Total US Stock Market FoF to just 0.09%. + +https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/sachin-bansal-s-navi-mf-plans-to-bring-vanguard-funds-to-india-11630421320253.html +https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/18/business/melvin-capital-gamestop-short.html + +Melvin Capital, the hedge fund run by Gabe Plotkin that struggled with heavy losses last year as it reeled from wrong-way bets on GameStop, is shutting down, according to a letter sent to investors on Wednesday that was reviewed by The New York Times. Mr. Plotkin wrote to his investors that he had decided that the “appropriate next step” was to liquidate the fund’s assets and return cash to all investors. Mr. Plotkin, who founded Melvin in 2014, also wrote that he recognized he needed to “step away from managing external capital.” + +Mr. Plotkin, a protégé of the hedge fund billionaire and New York Mets owner Steven A. Cohen, had wagered that shares GameStop, AMC Entertainment and other mall mainstays from the 1990s would fall as their businesses shrank. Instead, the stocks skyrocketed when amateur investors, coordinating via Reddit, Twitter and other social media sites and determined to outsmart big Wall Street funds, kept buying up shares and propping up their price. That caused Melvin, which had $8 billion in assets under management in January 2021, to lose billions of dollars as it scrambled to cover its so-called short positions. It was propped up by a $2.75 billion bailout from the hedge funds Point72, run by Mr. Cohen, and Citadel, as well as fresh capital from new investors. Before deciding to shutter his fund, Mr. Plotkin had considered reconstituting it. The decision to close Melvin, which Mr. Plotkin named after his late grandfather, is a blow to Mr. Plotkin’s reputation. He had gained fame as one of the most successful portfolio managers to emerge from Mr. Cohen’s former hedge fund, SAC Capital. +So, when my husband and I first started trying to take our finances seriously, we noticed a particular big leak in our finances. Lending friends and family money. My husband and I have a lot of friends who have... for lack of a more gracious term... never gotten their shit together. Since we have been making decent money for years, they started getting into the habit of calling us when they got in a financial bind. $100 here, $20 there, $1000 there. I realized that we very rarely ever saw any of it back. I needed to put a stop to this, but I still wanted to be able to help my loved ones when needed. + +So I came up with some rules when lending money to loved ones. + +1) I never loan money. If I can't afford to just give it to you, then I can't afford to loan it to you. It is a gift, and I never expect to see it back. Whether you give it back is completely up to you, and we're still just as good of friends if you don't. I will never let money come between us. + +2) You only get one gift. If you give it back, then it is no longer a gift, and you are welcome to another gift should you ever need it. There is no limit to how many gifts you can receive and return, but only one at a time. + +3) No, you cannot receive a gift, and then a day/week/month later decide you need to "add on" to that gift. Ask for everything you expect to need and then even a little more if you like, but no adding on more later. + +4) No means no. If you try to guilt me or otherwise manipulate me if I refuse to give you money, I will walk away, and we will not be friends or speak again until you understand that you just made me feel used and only valuable to you as a wallet. I will only forgive this once. More than once is a pattern that speaks volumes about what I am to you. + +So far, this has gone well. Both good friends we have given money to under these rules chose to pay us back over time, and have not requested a second gift yet. I think being able to repay us on completely their own time, of their own volition, and without any pressure from us made them feel more comfortable and respected. We've lost some friends over money before we established these rules. I'm really hoping that this might help plug the financial drain, and preserve friendships at the same time. + +If you have any suggestions that could improve this, please feel free to post them. :) + +UPDATE: Wow. Well, I did not expect this to blow up like it has, but that's really cool and I appreciate all the activity, compliments, discussion, and the gold from two lovely people. :) I'm trying to answer any questions directed at me, but on mobile this is a lot to shift through, so feel free to tag me or whatever if you want me to answer or comment on something. Thanks everyone for an awesome discussion :) +Hi everyone, + +I created a google spreadsheet template that I've been using for quite a while now and I thought it may be helpful for you too. + +In the template you type a ticker and it loads financial data and a basic DCF Analysis on multiple analyst estimates. ALL FORMULAS ARE OPEN so if you want to add/delete/change anything you can do that. + +The way I use this is basically to have a high level overview of what the company numbers look like in the last years and what analysts are projecting. Then I decide whether or not to dive deeper doing more research and so on.. + +Here's two screenshoots of what it looks like (or you can just get a copy below and see by yourself..) + +[https://i.imgur.com/RF65EV8.png](https://i.imgur.com/RF65EV8.png) + +[https://i.imgur.com/1VhaYdk.png](https://i.imgur.com/1VhaYdk.png) + +If anyone wants to use it + +1. Make a COPY of [**this google spreadsheet**](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G_tr67m-rq9Q4u6ryGidW40blgakYg71psdemVCn8sQ/edit?usp=sharing) to your own google drive. + 1. In the top menu, go to ***File > Make a Copy*** (remember to be signed in with your google account) + 2. Click *Make a copy* +2. Open the version you just copied and add your Access Key **reddit** in the cell C6 + 1. No need for you from the sub to sign up or anything. Just use the Access Key **reddit** and it will work fineI appreciate if you [sign up](https://studyingstocks.com/free-stock-analysis-template/) though just because I can have better visibility who is using the sheet and how often... I have some costs to keep this running so it's better if I can control a little bit the things in case is needed. +3. Type your ticker in the cell C8 (Ex: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA…) + +&#x200B; + +OBS: It's only DCF, so if you want to analyze banks or REITs I don't think this is the best option + +Let me know if you have any suggestions or feedback as well. I've been doing this as a hobby + as a way to learn how to code :) + +\--- + +**UPDATE:** Thanks all for the feedbacks!! I updated Google and Amazon data with the recent stock split. Working on the other stocks that people mentioned here too. Again, I really appreciate the suggestions. +That's right. According to the WSJ article today, part of the 1.5 billion deal included a seat on the board for this guy >>> [https://www.forbes.com/profile/alfred-lin/?sh=5629fb8a17b0](https://www.forbes.com/profile/alfred-lin/?sh=5629fb8a17b0) **Alfred Lin** + +Relevant quote from WSJ: + +>"Venture-capital firm Sequoia Capital and cryptocurrency investor Paradigm have agreed to invest $1.15 billion in the Chicago-based firm, the company told The Wall Street Journal. Sequoia partner Alfred Lin will also join Citadel Securities’ board." + +If you read the blurb you'll see Reddit mentioned. I looked further, and voila! + +[https://www.sequoiacap.com/companies/reddit/](https://www.sequoiacap.com/companies/reddit/) + +So yeah. That's just fantastic. + +*Shits getting spicy!* + +Edit: F$ck around and find out. New decentralized social platform being worked on. + +[https://discord.gg/eJYW3SHB](https://discord.gg/eJYW3SHB) + +The internet remains undefeated. +Hi ladies and gents, + +I come to you seeking advice. Throwaway for anonymity. + +&#x200B; + +My wife and I had FIRE as a goal since we started dating 10 years ago making very little money(combined 80K in NYC). + +&#x200B; + +We currently make about 500K from w2 working in tech/finance(300 from me and 200 from her). I also consult for some friends businesses on the side (about 50K). + +We THOUGHT we were sitting at a combined 1.5M between stocks, crypto and reits and other investment, and were well on our way to our 4M goal. + +We found out very recently that her parents created a trust for her brother and her way back when. + +We now have an extra 3.5M sitting in a trust. NO we haven't told anyone , just you reading this ;). + +So now... we're at 5M with no debt, wayyy ahead of schedule. We're both 31 now, planning on starting a family and potentially getting a house in suburbia, and now we're befuddled as to what to do. + +Existential crisis is hitting full on. + +We're still quite frugal, so it's strange to be at our goal and not feel like we've earned it, since we literally didn't. We didn't really plan on retiring until the age of 36-40ish. + +One thing I've noticed is that it's hard to NOT be frugal even though we have some wealth. Also It feels weird keeping it a secret, I feel obliged to help family and friends that aren't doing so well, but we've held back. + +&#x200B; + +What the hell do we do now? + +1. Keep our corporate gigs and continue the grind? We've both sort of lost motivation for our jobs since finding out. On the positive side our jobs are both remote flexible in the US timezone. +2. Retire and travel the world before baby? +3. Go on a sabbatical and travel the work before baby, and continue the corporate grind once returned? +4. 2 above + open up /buy a business we're passionate about? (coffee shop, art thing, gym). +5. Retire but continue consulting? +6. ??? + +Any advice or any opinions on the above options? . + +EDIT: MY goodness! This got way more attention that I expected. Thank you thank thank you for all the thoughtful responses and interesting perspectives! Very eye opening and valuable food for thought in here, y'all rock. + +Conclusions / Themes: + +1. For sure going to scratch the Wanderlust Itch - once everything went remote we kicked it off with a drive across the US +2. Time is ephemeral and should be spent wisely with or without babies +3. We're not going to throw away our careers until we've had time to reflect, or until we actually hate working which currently we don't. +4. YES, technically she's FI and I'm not, but she likes to spoil me :p +5. 10M is the new 5M LOL + +&#x200B; +[His tweet here](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1029900695925706753) + + +Today I am going to make a tweet storm explaining the history and state of Ethereum's Casper research, including the FFG vs CBC wars, the hybrid => full switch, the role of randomness, mechanism design issues, and more. + +Ethereum proof of stake research began in [Jan 2014 with Slasher](https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/01/15/slasher-a-punitive-proof-of-stake-algorithm) Though the algorithm is highly suboptimal, it introduced some important ideas, most particularly the use of penalties to solve the [nothing at stake problem](https://ethereum.stackexchange.com/questions/2402/what-exactly-is-the-nothing-at-stake-problem). That said, the penalties that I used were very small, only canceling out signing rewards. Vlad Zamfir joined in mid-2014, and he quickly moved toward requiring validators to put down *deposits*, much larger in size than rewards, that could be taken away for misbehavior. [Here's Vlad's retelling](https://medium.com/@Vlad_Zamfir/the-history-of-casper-part-1-59233819c9a9) + +We spent much of late 2014 trying to deal with "long range attacks", where attackers withdraw their stake from deposits on the main chain, and use it to create an alternate "attack chain" with more signatures than the main chain, that they could fool clients into switching to. If the attack chain diverges from the main chain at a fairly recent point in time, this is not a problem, because if validators sign two conflicting messages for the two conflicting chains this can be used as evidence to penalize them and take away their deposits. + +But if the divergence happened long ago (hence, long range attack), attackers could withdraw their deposits, preventing penalties on either chain. We eventually decided that long range attacks are unavoidable for [pretty much the reasons PoW proponents say](https://download.wpsoftware.net/bitcoin/pos.pdf). However, we did not accept their conclusions. We realized that we could deal with long range attacks by introducing an additional security assumption: that clients log on at least once every four months (and deposits take four months to withdraw), and clients simply refuse to revert further than that. +This was anathema to PoW proponents because it feels like a trust assumption: you need to get the blockchain from some trusted source when you sync for the first time. But to us dirty subjectivists, it did not seem like a big deal; you need some trusted source to tell you what the consensus rules of the blockchain are in any case (and don't forget software updates), so the additional trust required by this PoS assumption is not large. [Here's Vlad's retelling](https://blog.ethereum.org/2016/12/07/history-casper-chapter-2/) + +Now that we settled on deposits and penalties, we had to decide what those deposits and penalties _are_. We knew that we wanted an "economic finality" property, where validators would sign on blocks in such a way that once a block was "finalized", no _conflicting_ block could be finalized without a large portion of validators having to sign messages that conflict with their earlier messages in a way that the blockchain could detect, and hence penalize. I went on a big long, and ultimately unproductive, tangent [on a direction I called "consensus by bet](https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/12/28/understanding-serenity-part-2-casper/) + +Consensus by bet was an interesting construction where validators would make bets on which block would be finalized, and the bets themselves determined which chain the consensus would favor. The theory was that PoW also has this property, as mining is a bet where if you bet on the right chain, you gain (reward - mining cost), and if you bet on the wrong chain, you lose the mining cost, except with PoS we could push the odds on the bets much higher. The odds on validators' bets would start off low, but as validators saw each other getting more and more confident about a block, everyone's odds would rise exponentially, in parallel, until eventually they would bet their entire deposits on a block. This would be "finality". + +In the meantime, Vlad started heavily researching mechanism design, particularly with an eye to making Casper more robust against oligopolies, and we also started looking at consensus algorithms inspired by traditional byzantine fault tolerance theory, such as Tendermint. Vlad decided that traditional BFT was lame (he particularly disliked hard thresholds, like the 2/3 in PBFT and Tendermint), and he would try to effectively reinvent BFT theory from scratch, using an approach that he called "Correct by Construction" (CBC). [In Vlad's own words](https://medium.com/@Vlad_Zamfir/the-history-of-casper-chapter-5-8652959cef58) + +The correct-by-construction philosophy is very different from traditional BFT, in that "finality" is entirely subjective. In CBC philosophy, validators sign messages, and if they sign a message that conflicts with their earlier message they have to submit a "justification" proving that, in the relevant sense, the new thing they are voting for "has more support" than the old thing they were voting for, and so they have a right to switch to it. To detect finality, clients look for patterns of messages that prove that the majority of validators is reliably voting for some block B in such a way that there is no way they can switch away from B without a large fraction of validators "illegally" switching their votes. + +For example, if everyone votes for B, then everyone votes on a block that contains everyone's votes for B, that proves that they support B and are aware that everyone else supports B, and so they would have no legitimate cause for switching to something other than B. I eventually gave up on consensus-by-bet because the approach seemed too fundamentally risky, and so I switched back to trying to understand how algorithms like PBFT work. It took a while, but after a few months I figured it out. [I managed to simplify PBFT](http://pmg.csail.mit.edu/papers/osdi99.pdf) and translate it into the blockchain context, describing it as four "slashing conditions", rules that state what combinations of messages are self-contradictory [and therefore illegal](https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/minimal-slashing-conditions-20f0b500fc6c I defined a rule for determining when a block is finalized, and proved the key "safety" and "plausible liveness" properties: (i) if a block is finalized, then there is no way for a conflicting block to get finalized without >= 1/3 violating a slashing condition (ii) if a block is finalized, 2/3 honest validators can always cooperate to finalize a new block. So the algorithm can neither "go back on its word" nor "get stuck" as long as > 2/3 are honest. + +I eventually simplified the minimal slashing conditions down from four to two, and from there came Casper the Friendly Finality Gadget (FFG), which is designed to be usable as an overlay on top of any PoW or PoS or other blockchain to add finality guarantees. Finality is a very significant advancement: once a block is finalized, it is secure regardless of network latency (unlike confirmations in PoW), and reverting the block requires >= 1/3 of validators to cheat in a way that's detectable and can be used to destroy their deposits. Hence, the cost of reverting finality can run into the billions of dollars. The Casper CBC and Casper FFG approaches both achieve this, though in technically different ways. Note that Casper CBC and Casper FFG are *both* "overlays" that need to be applied on top of some existing fork choice rule, though the abstractions work in different ways. + +In simplest terms, in Casper CBC the finality overlay adapts to the fork choice rule, whereas in Casper FFG the fork choice rule adapts to the finality overlay. Vlad's initial preference for the fork choice rule was "latest message-driven GHOST", [an adaptation of GHOST](https://eprint.iacr.org/2013/881.pdf) to proof of stake, and my initial preference was to start off with hybrid PoS, using proof of work as the base fork choice rule. In the initial version of Casper FFG, proof of work would "run" the chain block-by-block, and the proof of stake would follow close behind to finalize blocks. Casper CBC was full proof of stake from the start. At the same time, Vlad and I were both coming up with our own respective schools of thought on the theory of consensus *incentivization*. Here, a very important distinction is between *uniquely attributable faults*, where you can tell who was responsible and so can penalize them, and *non-uniquely attributable faults*, where one of multiple parties could have caused the fault. + +The classic case of a non-uniquely-attributable fault is going offline vs censorship, also called "speaker-listener fault equivalence". Penalizing uniquely attributable faults (eg. Casper FFG slashing conditions) is easy. Penalizing non-unquely-attributable faults is hard. What if you can't tell if blocks stopped finalizing because a minority went offline or because a majority is censoring the minority? There are basically 3 schools of thought on this issue: + +- 1 Penalize both sides a little +- 2 Penalize both sides hard (Vlad's preference) +- 3 Split the chain into two, penalize one side on each chain, and let the market decide which chain is more valuable (my preference). [Or, in my words](https://vitalik.ca/general/2017/07/16/triangle_of_harm.html) + +In November 2017, the Casper FFG slashing conditions, plus my ideas for solving "the 1/3 go offline" problem through a "quadratic leak" mechanism, [became a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.09437) . Of course, I was well aware that appealing to the social layer to solve 51% attacks was not a very nice thing to do, so I started looking for ways to at least allow online clients to *automatically* detect which chain is "legitimate" and which is the "attack" in real time. + +[Here is one of my earlier ideas](https://ethresear.ch/t/censorship-rejection-through-suspicion-scores/305) It was something, but still suboptimal; unless network latency was exactly zero, there was only a guarantee that clients' suspicion scores would differ by at most delta, [not that clients would fully agree](https://ethresear.ch/t/censorship-rejection-through-suspicion-scores/305) In the meantime, my main criticism of Vlad's model had to do with "discouragement attacks", where attackers could credibly threaten to make a 51% attack that causes everyone to lose money, thereby driving everyone else to drop out, thus dominating the chain at near-zero cost. Vlad (along with Georgios Piliouras) started doing economic modeling to estimate the actual cost of such an attack under his model. + +It's worth noting here that all of these issues are not unique to proof of stake. In fact, in proof of work, people tend to simply give up and assume preventing 51% attacks is outright impossible, and a 51% attack is a doomsday that must be prevented at all costs. But, as is the Ethereum tradition, Vlad and I were both unaware that the word "ambitious" can be anything but a compliment, and kept on working on our separate approaches to disincentivizing, mitigating and recovering from 51% attacks. + +In early 2018, Vlad's work on CBC started to move forward quickly, with great progess on safety proofs. For the state of progress in March 2018, [see this epic two-hour presentation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNGbd_RbrzE) In the meantime, Casper FFG was making huge progress. A decision to implement it as a contract that would be published to the Ethereum blockchain made development easy. On Dec 31, 2017 at 23:40, [we released a testnet written in python](https://hackmd.io/s/Hk6UiFU7z) + +Unfortunately, development of FFG then slowed down. The decision to implement FFG as a contract made some things easier, but it made other things harder, and it also meant that the eventual switch from EVM to EWASM, and single-chain Casper to sharded Casper, would be harder. In addition, the team's work was being split between "main chain Casper" and "shard chain Casper" and it was clear there was enormous unneeded duplication of effort going on between the Casper and sharding teams. + +In June 2018, we made the fateful decision to scrap "hybrid Casper FFG as a contract", and instead pursue full Casper as an independent chain, designed in such a way that integrating sharding would be much easier. The switch to full proof of stake led me to start thinking much harder about proof of stake fork choice rules. Casper FFG (and CBC) both require the *entire* validator set to vote in every "epoch" to finalize blocks, meaning there would be tens to hundreds of signatures coming in every second. BLS signature aggregation makes this practical in terms of computational overhead but I wanted to try to take advantage of all of these extra signatures to make the chain much more "stable", getting "100 confirmations" worth of security within a few seconds. + +[Here were my initial attempts](https://ethresear.ch/t/attestation-committee-based-full-pos-chains/2259) However, all of these approaches to the fork choice rule had a weakness: they split up validators into "attesters" and "proposers", and the proposers, being the key drivers of block production, had outsized power. This was undesirable, primarily because it required us to have a strong source of on-chain random number generation to fairly pick the proposers. And on-chain randomness is *hard*, with simple approaches like [RANDAO looking more and more problematic](https://ethresear.ch/t/randao-beacon-exploitability-analysis-round-2/1980) + +Justin Drake and I went off to solve this problem in two ways, Justin by using verifiable delay functions which have a deterministic and verifiable output, but take a large amount of unparallelizable sequential time to compute, making manipulation ahead of time impossible and myself by making a major concession to the Cult of Vlad™, using GHOST-based fork choice rules to greatly reduce the dependence on proposers, allowing the chain to grow uninterrupted even if >90% of proposers are malicious, as long as >50% of attesters are friendly. + +Vlad was very happy, though not fully: he preferred a version of GHOST based on validators' *latest messages*, whereas I preferred a version [based on *immediate* messages](https://ethresear.ch/t/recursive-proximity-to-justification-as-ffg-fork-choice-rule/2561) Around this time I also managed to come up with a way to "pipeline" Casper FFG, reducing time-to-finality from 2.5 epochs to the theoretically optimal 2 epochs: I was very happy that the RPJ fork choice rule (which I have since renamed "immediate message-driven GHOST") is nicely compatible with Casper FFG in a way that most others are not and that it has a very important "stability" property: that the fork choice is a good prediction of the future fork choice. This seems obvious, but is very easy to accidentally make fork choice rules that do *not* have this property. + +The most recent development of all is a result that latest message driven GHOST may, due to a technicality, only give 25% fault tolerance within two rounds, but immediate driven message GHOST (with FFG or CBC) still gives the full 33% (no writeup yet). The main tradeoff between FFG and CBC is that CBC seems to have nicer theoretical properties, but FFG seems to be easier to implement. In the meantime, [a *lot* of progress on verifiable delay functions has been made](https://notes.ethereum.org/52JZtwErThe9KmN6TNd1lga …) + +Also, I recently decided to look into Leslie Lamport's old 1982 paper, where he had a consensus algorithm that has 99% fault tolerance if you add the assumption that all nodes, including observers, [are online with low network latency](https://vitalik.ca/general/2018/08/07/99_fault_tolerant.html) The network latency assumptions arguably make this unsuitable as a primary consensus algorithm. However, there is one use case where it works *really* well: as a substitute for suspicion scores for 51% censorship detection. + +Basically, if a 51% coalition starts censoring blocks, other validators and clients can detect that this is happening and use the 99% fault tolerant consensus to agree that this is happening and coordinate a minority fork. +The long-run goal of this research is to reduce reliance on the social layer as much as possible, and maximizing the cost of destabilizing the chain enough so that reverting to the social layer is necessary. + +What's left now? On the FFG side, formal proofs, refinements to the specification, and ongoing progress on implementation (already started by >=3 teams!), with an eye to safe and speedy deployment. On the CBC side, much of the same. Onward and upward! + + + + + + + + +John Mcafee has been doing his coin of the week for the last few weeks now. + +He's been using his large Twitter reach and "security expert" name to create a pump and dump in which he tweets out a coin of the week. + +The issue has become is he is now **not only pre-buying the coins himself to dump on his followers, but he now sells the calls to people before hand, for a price of which you can negotiate in the DMs.** + +Bots have been a common issue when he had some credibility, so he used to make ways to block the bots from catching on, well now he tries to make it easy for the bots as people don't buy his junk pumps anymore that he presells to people as "leaks", so he wants the bots to buy up his bags at a premium, and then himself and the people he sold the coinpick to then dump on all these people. + +You can see proof of this: https://np.reddit.com/r/SysCoin/comments/7s3yly/john_mcafee_will_be_tweeting_sys_as_his_coin_of/ + +The reddit user /u/Goku900000 has been able leaked both of the previous 2 calls that Mcafee has made. + +This man has one of the biggest names in crypto and is pulling the Bitconnect route of making the entire cryptocommunity look bad as he uses his large audience to create pump and dumps, **this probably affects the NEW PEOPLE to crypto the most as they see his large Twitter following and see him as an authority in crypto.** +Just wanted to share this because it makes me happy. + +3 months ago I asked Reddit for advice because for the first time in my life I had savings thanks to the stimulus check. I'm very poor, I live on about $13k/year, so the stimulus check felt like I had won the lottery. Anyway, people on r/personalfinance told me that I should try and get my GED, that I write well so I had a chance to succeed. I ran away from home at 15 and dropped out of school so that wasn't even on my radar anymore, but I decided to accept the challenge. + +So I went to the library (that's where I spend most of my free time) and a librarian helped me find some free online GED-like tests. I tried and it wasn't as difficult as I had anticipated, so I decided to study for a few weeks and then go for the real thing. A lady at church insisted on paying for the tests in exchange for something I did for her so I didn't even have to worry about that. + +I took the tests, it was a leap of faith but it worked!!! I succeeded at my first attempt. I know it's not much but I feel proud of myself. Now my employment situation hasn't changed and I'm still dirt poor, but hopefully having my GED is the first step towards a better job and higher income. Maybe I could try and attend community college? Not sure if it's going to work but at least it's good to succeed at something once in a while! +**Update 4/20:** WOW, I woke up to over 5,000 likes, I seriously didn't expect all this love! Thank you all so very much, it truly means a lot!! I posted a [video walkthrough](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myc_KexWcrY) as well for anyone interested. + +# Summary + +Hi all, it's your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer. + +**In 2017:** + +* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017) +* **ETH/BTC** ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017) +* **ETH** was overvalued by \~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression + +**In 2021** + +* **ETH Dominance** (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7% +* **ETH/BTC** held at 0.016 + +**Takeaways** + +* If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the **upper 8k range** + * The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B) + * In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak +* ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in \~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is **8,511** +* If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at **7,805** +* The most likely outcome is that **ETH will reach \~8k this cycle** and any higher is statistically unlikely. + +&#x200B; + +# Details + +&#x200B; + +[ETH Dominance](https://preview.redd.it/no0vrk9bd9u61.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=98a0be992deca64567383c1e503e9eebb82f330c) + +[ETH\/BTC ratio vs BTC Price](https://preview.redd.it/8wkntkbs89u61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=003aebf6cfedf9c0a65d6df2917bd37396b967b8) + +&#x200B; + +[ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data](https://preview.redd.it/mmsaxaeu99u61.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=e73d0298cb20e5ad16df5ac1749c0f8a056a16f0) + +&#x200B; + +[Bitcoin Cycles compared \(shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle\)](https://preview.redd.it/zlblrygta9u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef0ce5a0d28a524e8ced03b5e2f6ca52ed712961) +It's okay to question his motives and what not, but will you guys stop tagging him and telling him to DRS his shit? An hour ago, some of you were crying that he bought TWTR and not GME--after **two whole days** in this sub. Lmao. Now, I see a barrage of comments begging him to DRS. Honestly, guys... Piss off and let the guy make his moves. + +He will figure it out. Get your purple weiners out of his face. + +It's okay if he only buys a few shares. It's okay if he invests in other companies. It's okay if he doesn't DRS. Pulte is Pulte. It's his money, not yours. Please shut up. Lol. I say that with love. + +Let's not be like the desperate popcorn apes begging this guy to buy GayMC. Chill out. Be zen. Pulte is a true ape. He will do his own research and come to his own conclusions. + + 🍄 +How would you disrupt it if you could? I would make it so an independent valuation was made of the house and no bargaining was allowed - just like a normal product. +Am I one of the few people that prefers coming in to work? + +Just want to hear other peoples perspectives because I’d personally not enjoy working from home. And I love interacting and working with colleagues in person! I hate zoom calls. +I am 13 with a custodial account. my initial investment was 500 dollars roughly 2 months ago. Here are the holdings I currently have... Keep in mind dividends arent the only thing I am after. + +KO 4 shares at 49.98 + +TFC 2 shares at 50.63 + +SCHD 2 shares at 65.86 + +PLTR 2 shares at 25.80 (long term play) + +AMC 3 shares at 6.99 ( i am hoping for a squeeze and i only have 3 shares) + +Please let me know what is good and bad also I am planning to add more money when I can... + Hi all, + +since I got some decent feedback on my first DD ([https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/m25llr/why\_deutsche\_telekom\_has\_a\_132\_to\_194\_stock\_price/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Trading/comments/m25llr/why_deutsche_telekom_has_a_132_to_194_stock_price/)) I wanted to thank you for that with posting a second one. This time it is commodity speculation. While lithium and graphite stocks already got their attention within the past weeks, cobalt was rather treated as the Plain Jane. I am going to show you why I think that cobalt prices and demand are currently about to rise drastically and why investments in companies like First Cobalt ($FCC) are a good vehicle to participate in that rise. + +**1)** **Demand in cobalt is rising almost 500% over the next decades due to Clean Energy transition** +**(e.g. e-mobility, battery storage)** + +Several studies show that cobalt is, together with graphite and lithium, one of THE key minerals/metals required to successfully achieve the transition towards a clean energy society. The demand is (source: World Bank) is expected to rise by factor 5x until 2050, so almost doubling every decade over the next 30 years. + +[Source: World Bank](https://preview.redd.it/i9j5g0qomfm61.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=479844d83bad3c460f832b32f087a7324228482c) + +But why is cobalt so essential? Well, the demand is mainly driven by lithium-ion batteries, as you can see in the following study, showing the end market usage of cobalt from 2006 to 2020f. Cobalt is a key ingredient within usual lithium-ion batteries. The cobalt in these batteries has a stabilizing effect on nickel or manganese and prevents cathode corrosion that can lead to a battery fire. So as long as lithium-ion batteries are still the battery standard, cobalt is a chemically essential compound. + +[Source: www.globalenergymetalls.com](https://preview.redd.it/9bqw1f7qmfm61.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdd761879dff5b3f1996e0b1a58b9bcb6e32969c) + +**2)** **Cobalt prices have a history of cyclical price peaks and current developments indicate such a price peak ahead** + +With 60% of cobalt world production is from Congo (former Zaire) and 20% from China, the supply chain security can at best be described as constant danger. Trade war with China, riots in Congo, or rising awareness regarding working conditions and child labor are a constant threat to reliable sourcing of cobalt. Ladder concerns (together with a negative price peak) for example, forced Glencore to close the world's biggest cobalt mining site Mutanga/Congo in 2019. These instabilities can always lead to exponential price peaks as you can see within the historical cobalt price chart. + +[Source: European Commission \(2020\) Raw Materials in the Battery Value Chain](https://preview.redd.it/ustbcqwrmfm61.png?width=1321&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bc332bb29b132b88c0345e1d3b584e15d280079) + +Now you’re probably wondering: when will the next price peak happen? No one can answer this question with final security. But when you look at current price developments, **cobalt already increased 20,420 USD/MT (or 63.44%)** since the beginning of 2021, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity, **now listing around 52.610 USD.** + +[Source: www.tradingeconomics.com](https://preview.redd.it/94sg8q7umfm61.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab572f9620c28bc9296f8eea41c929d77a4c892f) + +But is this the end of this crazy price development? Probably not! The all-time high of 95.250 USD in March of 2018 still **shows a price potential of an additional 81%** without taking any demand forecasts for 2020+ into consideration. So, it might be possible that we can reach **new all-time highs above 100.000 USD.** But at this point, it is speculation! No one can tell you for sure how prices will develop. Why some predict falling prices towards 42.940 USD others see prices above 60.000 USD or even a new all-time high ahead. + +**3)** **To participate, invest in cobalt mining shares since no substitutes in form of cobalt ETFs or ETPs are available** + +In contrast to other minerals like silver or gold, cobalt has no directly associated ETF or ETP (Exchange Traded Products). So how can you invest in cobalt then? Well, one possibility is using cobalt mining stocks as a substitute investment vehicle. When you screen the market for cobalt stocks you might read names like Vale, Glencore, or China Molybdenum. However, since cobalt only accounts for a minor percentage of their total mining output (e.g. 1% for Vale), their stock prices are not directly linked to cobalt market prices. Companies that are more suited as a substitute might be cobalt pure-players Clean TEQ Holdings, First Cobalt, or Sherritt International (at least 25% of its output). In the following, I will use **First Cobalt as a possible investment example**. + +If you compare the stock price of First Cobalt with cobalt market prices you will see that there is an almost 100% correlation between those two chart developments. This historical comparison is no guarantee that the prices will develop in the same way in the future, but to me, it’s a good indicator. **So, if you apply cobalt prices to the stock price of First Cobalt, an all-time high price peak would lead to a target stock price of 1,15$/0,96€ (ATH of First Cobalt) - this is an increase of roughly 450% from currently 0,25$ct/0,21 €ct!** + +[Source: www.mining.com \(prices are lb not metrical ton, so don’t get confused\)](https://preview.redd.it/rhl4102wmfm61.png?width=520&format=png&auto=webp&s=63f5888b48096a9e526fcdae6901da35ade0b04a) + +[Stock price First Cobalt in Euros](https://preview.redd.it/doq7fjzxmfm61.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccf1ceae908503ccfe431a136235b7d7f3091a06) + +Furthermore, I see more strategic advantages with First Cobalt: + +* Mining location in Canada offers supply chain security compared to China or Congo mining sites. In case some conflicts or trade wars might arise, this stock will directly profit from that development. +* The name “First Cobalt” will directly steer potential hype investors towards the stock as soon as prices will peak dramatically. So, you could say that their stock name is a good “brand” + +**Risks:** + +No good DD is complete without displaying the risks involved: + +* **Substitute technologies:** Mainly due to mentioned supply chain threats and human rights violations, companies like Tesla trying to reduce their percentage of cobalt used in their batteries (currently 3%) or even try to build zero-cobalt batteries. However, several studies show that the stability-problem is not yet solved, resulting in a higher risk of overheating batteries, reducing their battery lifecycle. ([https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science](https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science)) +* **Company risks:** since there are no ETFs or ETPs for cobalt, substitute companies might develop in a negative way, especially when investing in an early-state mining tock like First Cobalt. But in the end, such a high-risk investment usually offers high return probabilities. +* **Byproduct mining:** since cobalt is often a byproduct of nickel mining, cobalt demand might be covered by nickel miners. Based on the drastically rising demands of cobalt, I think that this scenario might not be realistic. +* **Closed-loop recycling:** battery producers try to reach a 100% battery recycling ratio. This might hamper the demand in the next decades, but as long as new batteries need to be manufactured and market demand can’t be satisfied by existing batteries, this should not be a problem for the case. +* **Price forecasts:** it might be the case that the cobalt price simply won't reach its all-time high or even a new record price in the future. So, this is where analysis ends, and speculation begins. + +**Summary:** + +In the end, I personally believe that a new price peak of cobalt might be ahead, and I invested a small stake in several cobalt mining shares since they are currently less overpriced than lithium or graphite stocks. If the speculation works out, no one knows, but as investor legend Andre Kostolany said: “At the stock exchange, 2 times 2 is never 4, but 5 minus 1. You just gotta have the nerve to accept and endure the minus 1” Overall, I am not a financial advisor, and this is not a financial advice. I simply like some of the stocks mentioned 😉 + +For more information, please check out the following studies on nickel and cobalt: + +[https://www.mckinsey.com/\~/media/mckinsey/industries/metals%20and%20mining/our%20insights/lithium%20and%20cobalt%20a%20tale%20of%20two%20commodities/lithium-and-cobalt-a-tale-of-two-commodities.ashx](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/metals%20and%20mining/our%20insights/lithium%20and%20cobalt%20a%20tale%20of%20two%20commodities/lithium-and-cobalt-a-tale-of-two-commodities.ashx) + +[https://hs.cruxinvestor.com/hubfs/The%20Ultimate%20Guide%20to%20the%20Cobalt%20Market%20-%20CRUX%20Investor.pdf](https://hs.cruxinvestor.com/hubfs/The%20Ultimate%20Guide%20to%20the%20Cobalt%20Market%20-%20CRUX%20Investor.pdf) +There's been a flood of articles in mainstream media (eg. [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/d46e8623-09af-4a1f-b7e5-207616388b0f?shareType=nongift), [The Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/01/redditors-set-their-sights-on-silver-after-gamestop-frenzy)) spreading the same falsehood, alleging that Redditors are behind the spike in silver prices. This is clearly false, as wsbers are all trying to diamond hand GME. Why would anyone want to divert funds to something completely different now? A glance through WSB confirms this - barely anyone's talking about silver there and the threads that talk about it are all posted from suspiciously new accounts. Coincidence? I think not. + +You can draw your own conclusions about what's happening there (my train of thought: since silver's spike isn't actually coming from Reddit, who's behind it? Who's motivated to spread falsehoods about Reddit and drag us down as a whole, and is capable of doing it through the media?" + +Answer: the very angry shorts on Wall St who lost billions. Or, if you want to put on a tinfoil hat, possibly even the establishment, as they probably now see wsb/Reddit as a destabilising factor that needs to be discredited and discounted publicly so we have less clout going forward.) + +My concern is that the infiltration of that once-wonderful sub called wsb by bad actors could start to take hold of this sub as well (if it hasn't already begun) - especially if we continue to grow at the rate we've seen of late. Growth is nice if it's organic and real. But if it's not? Would we be able to handle large numbers of bots/inauthentic accounts if it comes to that? + +This is one of the last few subs left that actually has high quality discussions. Would be a shame to lose this. I hope the mods can consider taking us private **for a few weeks** to avoid the unnecessary publicity. Please upvote if you agree so more can see this. +Basically just this. Friends/coworkers were oohing and ahhing over their rocks in the grad office today. They just have cost at least $10k apiece. Then one of them turns to me and says “Seraph, you’re engaged too, right? Why don’t you wear your ring to work?” I made up some dumb excuse about working with too many acids in the lab and being clumsy, and excused myself. Held off the tears till I got to the bathroom stall. Truth is, I don’t have a ring and I probably never will have one other than a simple wedding band. + +I’m 27, still in grad school, fiancé and I have been together for a decade. My stipend pays less than minimum wage. He lost his job a few years ago and only found a new position a few months ago that pays only a fraction of his old job. We’re barely keeping our heads above water ever since we had to use up all our savings. + +It was just overwhelming today hearing my friends talk about something that probably cost half of what I make in a year as of it was some run-of-the-mill thing. It makes me wonder why my fiancé and I aren’t in the same place as they are - I mean, my friends are grad students too! It makes me feel like I’ve done something wrong or messed something important up and I hate it. + +Edit: Whoa, this got big. Thank you so much for your kind and supportive comments, everyone! I wish I could type something to each and every one of you but I’m headed to the middle of absolutely nowhere for fieldwork tomorrow and and won’t have time nor Interwebz sadly. Thank you for consoling an over emotional basket case like me. I don’t even want a gosh darn ring, I just felt sort of left out in the moment, and I guess I also have to learn to not react so strongly when I do! +Too often I see people - mega high income earners ($1.5M+ a year) continue to work well into their 50s and 60s. These people are super hard workers and have a great work ethic and I admire them. However, can someone help me understand what the point is of continuing to work once you have a nice house, a few investment properties to provide stable income and a good mix of shares? At that point you basically don't have to worry about money anymore and can do the things you enjoy. + +At least that's what I would do. I am currently on $165K a year (which includes a $40K bonus). I love my job and will continue working well into my 40s (am 26 currently), but once I have my house fully paid off and enough savings I will likely retire. + +Are these people just genuinely in love with their work, is it greed or are they saving for something beyond a house (which to me is the great aussie dream)? + +Hope I can get some clarification. Please note I am note attacking these people, just genuinely curious. Many of my friends are high income earners and I respect them greatly for their work ethic. + +As a kid I've always wanted to become a professional video gamer or get good at some sport. Maybe a bit of travelling. Once I am able to forget about money, I will stop chasing it. Or so I think... This is a rather interesting phenomenon because I could have sworn when I was just in Year 12 I told myself I would donate half of my salary once I started earning over 6 figures. Yet here I am and I can't imagine doing that. + +Is this just a thing where we just want to succeed more and more and are never satisfied with the end point? :/ +Good evening, + +I currently have a portfolio of over $2k at 127% all time. I’m looking to try to increase my dividend stocks. Any advice? +I currently invest in transportation, vacation, social media and games. + +Any help is appreciated! +Not many people have heard the story of Floyd Odlum, lawyer turned Wall Street legend who cemented his legacy as a deep value investor. I was fascinated by it and thought I'd share it here + + +In 1923, Floyd Odlum, a friend, and their wives together pooled a total of $39,600 and formed "The United States Company" to speculate in purchases of utilities and general securities. Within two years, the company's net assets had increased 17x to nearly $700,000. In short, Odlum searched for fifty-cent dollars and scoured every corner of the market. According to documents from *the Eisenhower Library,* Odlum preferred two kinds of investments: + +* Utility stocks +* Special situations + +Between 1925 – 1928, Odlum steadily grew the partnership. By investing in utilities and special situations, The United States Company AUM grew to $6M (over $88M adjusted for inflation). It was around this time that Odlum began sensing euphoria in the market. He smelled a top and he decided it was time for him to act. +In 1929, he rolled his original partnership into a new vehicle, The Atlas Corporation. Wary of a market top, Odlum sold half his assets. He stayed in cash and issued $9M worth of Atlas Corporation securities. With $14M in cash, Floyd sat on his hands. Waiting for the next market crash, which shortly followed + +After the crash of 1929 and during the Great Depression, Floyd Odlum bought 22 investment trusts at a very low price and was regularly described as “possibly the only man in the United States who made a great fortune out of the Depression”. + +Read the incredible story in ful here - [https://macroops.substack.com/p/the-greatest-value-investor-youve?r=6gq23&utm\_medium=ios](https://macroops.substack.com/p/the-greatest-value-investor-youve?r=6gq23&utm_medium=ios) +Many vloggers/bloggers make company analysis seem very easy. They just look at few numbers, read a short description of the company, mention some obvious risks and opportunities for the company, run a simple DCF with best scenario figures, worst scenario figures, and base case figures, and, bam, analysis is done. Now the viewer understands this company inside out and can make an informed buying or selling decision! + +What do you think? Is understanding individual companies that easy? +I’ve recently turned 40, which is essentially middle age, and my resentment towards sacrificing the enjoyment of my present life continues to grow. Financially, I would consider myself both fortunate and comfortable. My wife and I are both established in our careers, and combine for a gross income of $250K-ish Canadian. We have 3 lovely children, though we’re “old parents” for having them in our mid to late 30’s. + +I’m sure 60 or 70 year old me will be thankful, but I feel like I’m sacrificing the middle third of my life for a future that is not guaranteed. Friends in similar positions are enjoying new(er) and large(r) homes, vehicles, family vacations (pre-COVID), etc., while I’m living in a 1000sqft bungalow built in 1956 and drive vehicles 10-15 years old. My wife and I had to accomplish everything “the hard way” and had little to no financial assistance from our parents. They just didn’t have to ability to help in that capacity. Many of our friends were able to live at home during university, paid very little tuition on their own, received assistance on home down payments, purchased their first home before the housing boom, made a small fortune selling their first home and are now on their second... gah! My wife and I lived on our own and paid our own way through university, bought our home at the housing market peak, and on and on. + +Quite frankly, I’m unhappy with my daily life, and the promise of a comfortable retirement is not compensating for my growing resentment. It’s because all our income not dedicated towards living expenses (mortgage, utilities, food, childcare, etc.) is being saved an invested. Though we both have retirement plans through work, we have secondary RSP’s through our financial planner. RESP’s are in place for our 3 children. After allowing ourselves a minimal monthly “allowance” everything else is put in to savings. Our net worth (assets vs liabilities) is already over the million dollar mark, our mortgage will be paid off in less than 5 years, vehicles were bought with cash, and we have no other debts. + +And I fucking hate it. It’s a bizarre feeling, because I should feel comfortable and content, but I feel trapped and limited. Most days I couldn’t care less that 80 year old me, if I live that long, will be taken care of because 40 year old me is being “fiscally responsible.” My apologies for the rant, but I really needed a non-spouse outlet to vent. + +Here is a sampling of my monthly budget: + +Based on $12K/mo take-home (net) income. + +$1800 - childcare + +$1530 - mortgage + +$1105 - utilities, insurance, taxes + +$300 - transportation + +$800 - groceries + +$50 - charity + +$200 - personal allowance ($100 each) + +$6215 - RESP, RSPs, savings + +Both my wife and I also have retirement savings/investments deducted automatically off our paycheques. I did not include this. I’m coming at you from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. Heathcare expenses, both now and in my old-age, are of minimal to zero concern. + +EDIT: Thank you, truly. The responses have been both appreciated (all of them) and overwhelming. I couldn’t even begin to address them all, but I have given each reply my attention. Thank you. +Because after twenty years of working 50+ hours a week to make ends meet, I can rest + +I finally have the time and money to get my migraines under control + +mine & my son's future is financially secure + +I can buy my dad a house + +I can make the world a better place + +and because the little guy *can* win + + + +After typing this I almost deleted it because it sounds too sappy, but fuck it + +*Edit +The instant reaction to this post made me tear up. I love all of you + +**Edit again +[Here's my truck](https://imgur.com/bb50RL4.jpg) + +***Edit #3 [GTFOH](https://imgur.com/p9SxE88.jpg) + +****I wish I could respond to all these replies! 💔 I see you, and I appreciate you +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Want to learn more?** [**Check out our extensive Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **and** [**FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) + +Please review the [**Superstonk Rules**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules) before commenting or posting on r/Superstonk. + +Remember that you can [**use the flair index to filter posts**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrwirc/updated_about_and_menu_flair_directory/). + +*Daily discussion threads are created at 2:00 a.m. EDT* +A year ago, I negotiated my surrender with soulless mega-corp and walked away with enough to put us past north of $6M liquid. Since we spend \~$200k per year, we're all set. While the math checks out, the feeling is quite different. Between the pandemic, QE, healthcare costs, future taxes, and 27 other unknowns, it doesn't feel like we can hang it up. Additionally, I'm not ready to stop working, and my wife doesn't want to stop without me. So we were plugging along with a total income \~$450k. + +The decision to keep working drove me to a job at a much smaller company. We were making enough cash to ensure we were coasting, my equity looked like it had some upside, and the hours weren't bad. The problem... it wasn't fun. The difference between soulless mega-corp and small company didn't justify the pay difference, and I wasn't thrilled with the leadership team I joined. So, I just quit. + +For the first time in my career, I'm without a next step and without a paycheck. I fully exercised my option to use my FU money to say FU. I don't know where I'll end up next, but it doesn't really matter. + +For those of you on the journey to fatFIRE, remember that the path isn't cast in stone. The closer you get, the more freedom you have to make choices you would never have thought to make earlier. +I’ve seen some investors recently asking if they should sell their investment because it’s down a couple hundred. + +All I’m asking is if the market can go lower! Picked up some O, MSFT, AAPL, and i’m just getting started 😎 + +Curious to see what other people are buying. +Are you ready for the next bull market? + +I think we're getting close to the bottom. If we haven't seen it now, then definitely by October. Then: + +2019: We'll see a solid climb of 100% from bottom. + +2020: We'll see another parabolic run-up. + +What this means is right now, and probably for the next 6-12 months, you can buy ETH will minimal downside risk (there's always risk ... I believe there's less of it now). + +On January 17, I posted this, saying we were in a bear market (and got roundly downvoted). https://old.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7qrwl8/dont_kid_yourselves_this_is_a_bear_market_and_its/ + +In February, I posted this, saying we'd likely see a $200 billion market cap. https://old.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7v9fcq/wait_for_the_consolidation_phase_entire_crypto/ + +Our main problem at the moment is we don't have decentralized applications. Personally, the only decentralized app I've used is a DEX. + +However, if you still believe in a decentralized internet and dApps, then it makes sense to hold your position and to add to it if you can. + +This market will come back around. It just takes time. + +Posted this five months ago, saying recovery could take two years. +https://old.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/857uv2/are_you_a_true_hodlr_market_recovery_could_take_2/ + +Will check back in a few months from now. +The title basically covers it. M22 just started a job in London. 25k a year, rent is 660 a month excluding bills. Employer contributes 11% even if I contribute nothing. I'm currently contributing 4% but wondering if it would be silly to drop this down to 0% for the first few months while I'm adjusting to my salary and London prices. I know 4% isn't a lot in the grand scheme but the £84 it's worth could come in handy. What do you think? +Reminder that usually a “cost of living” raise is to match inflation, usually 2%. So getting a 3% raise is usually just a little more than cost of living. + +The report came out today that in the last year, inflation was 4.2%. That means if you got a 3% raise, your purchasing power is *less* than this time last year. + +I know that a lot of people are unemployed, but a lot also took pay cuts or pay freezes or crappy raises last year (and probably more work to offset layoffs, but that’s for a different discussion). Now that the job market is picking up, inflation is definitely something to consider. +I had an interview for a company on May 18th, I have email correspondence that says they want me to buy the flight to the interview as they do not want my personal information or to mess up the flight scheduling, but they will reimburse me for the flights cost. Whatever, figure that’s a normal~ish thing to occur. I go to the interview and we we are not on the same wavelength, so I knew it wasn’t going to work out as did they. + +I called them two weeks ago and asked when I was going to get reimbursed for my flight, they said they were still working on it. + +Is there a specific time I should wait for this reimbursement? What are the steps I should take if they just never send anything back to me? + +Maybe I’m overreacting, but I gave them the price of my flight well before I even went to the interview, so they’ve known the cost of it for nearly two months now. Just seems a little off to me. + +Edit 1. Sent an email out to the person I was in correspondence with previously asking for an ETA. Will update on how she responds. + +Edit 2. Because of some comments made I’ll clarify some things. I’ve already accepted a position at a different company. I heard about this company through my friend who was trying to do business with them. So can’t exactly burn bridges here, but am more than willing to write a Glassdoor review on the interview process if this drags on. + +Edit 3. Heard back from my correspondent at the company saying the payment will be processed in July. Kind of wish it was a set date, but I’ll take it for now. +What are your plays for the week? What you buying and selling? What were your best plays? + +Remember this is a community to learn. + +**Downvotes are discouraged** + +**Sort by New to find the best daily play** + +Add 🚀🚀🚀 if you serious +Ok am I in the minority of people who is getting sick of the constant SCHD posts? Like the sub is called r/dividends not r/SCHD. I feel like the shilling for this ETF is even greater when r/stocks was shilling for ARKK back in 2021. I know this going to be an unpopular take but why is there no discussion on other dividend stocks anymore? Like I get it SCHD is a good ETF but there are other high quality ETF’s and stocks in the stock market too. + +I like the quality and investing process of dividend investing which is why I am on this sub. This sub helped me with my portfolio a lot and the discussion around other holdings. I feel like these past couple of months have just turned into post after post about SCHD. Would love to see other discussions about other stocks and ETF’s that pay dividends too. +Financial Times (paywalled): https://www.ft.com/content/a206e3d7-fc89-4e95-9d20-32cc99d97938 + +Key points from the article: + +* The wager against US and European corporate debt underscores Bridgewater’s view that recent weakness across major financial markets will not be short lived. +* Jensen, who helps lead investment decisions alongside co-CIO Bob Prince, warned that inflation would be far stickier than economists and the market currently predict, which could pressure the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates higher than expected by many on Wall Street. +* Jensen said the Fed’s decision, coupled with tighter policy from a panoply of central banks across the globe, would drain liquidity from the financial system. +* “You want to be on the other side of that liquidity hole, out of assets that require the liquidity and in assets that don’t,” he said. +* Bridgewater in April used baskets of credit derivatives in Europe and the US to make the bet against corporate bond markets, according to people familiar with the trade. +* Jensen said he ultimately believed that the Fed would blink and accept inflation above its 2 per cent target. Policymakers, in his view, will be unable to tolerate a stock market sell-off and the high unemployment that would likely result by raising rates high enough to bring inflation down to that threshold. +* Otherwise he estimated stocks could “crash” a further 25 per cent from current levels if the Fed was unrelenting in its push to tackle inflation. +* Greg Jensen, Bridgewater’s co-chief investment officer, warned that the biggest systemic risk facing the US economy was that the Federal Reserve was effectively out of ammo. +* Sky-high inflation has limited the tools at both the Fed’s and federal government’s disposal, given an intervention by either would likely stoke price pressures already weighing on the country, he said. He cautioned that policymakers in Washington would have to “essentially allow a recession because the trade-off with inflation is so bad”. +* “The biggest systemic risk is that markets are not used to the type of drawdowns that you have when the central bank can’t use monetary policy into weakness.” +The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Euro Area fell to 7.7 percent in March 2019 from 7.8 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 7.8 percent. It was the lowest jobless rate since September 2008, as the number of unemployed continued to decline. A year earlier, unemployment rate was higher at 8.5 percent. Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area averaged 9.67 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.10 percent in February of 2013 and a record low of 7.30 percent in October of 2007. + +Meanwhile in America, the unemployment rate has been far lower. +The US unemployment rate came in at 3.8 percent in March 2019, unchanged from the previous month's figure and in line with market expectations. A year earlier the unemployment rate held steady at 4.0 percent. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.76 percent from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953. + +Why is there such a massive discrepancy? + +EDIT: + +other EU data outlining the high unemployment: + +In March 2018: + +Spain - 15.9% (1.9% decrease in March 2019) + +Italy - 10.9% (0.7% decrease in March 2019) + +France - 9.2% (0.4% decrease in March 2019) + +Greece - 20.6% (2.1% decrease in March 2019) + +Portugal - 7.4% (1% decrease in March 2019) + +Cyprus - 9.0% (2% decrease in March 2019) + +Croatia - 8.9% (1.5% decrease in March 2019) +Trevor Milton, founder of Nikola Corp., has been charged with three counts of fraud by the U.S. Attorney's Office in Manhattan in connection with their investigation into the embattled electric vehicle start-up. + +Federal prosecutors accused Milton, who resigned as chairman in September, of making deceptive and false claims regarding "nearly all aspects of the business," according to a grand jury indictment unsealed Thursday. +Hi!! I thought it'd be fun to ask everyone here what they want to learn about. + +I used to be an equity research analyst and I want to share any knowledge that can be helpful. + +What I'd love to hear from value investors out there is... + +**What is the single biggest challenge that you're struggling with in your stock investing right now?** + +If you have 5 minutes to share: [I've set up a form here](https://forms.gle/kkt9u9LWJbbSDwxX6) + +I have a workbook of my equity research methods that I'd happily share as a thank you. + +Once I get enough responses, I will also compile what the key challenges are into a new post! + +And then we'll solve these challenges!! + +Henry Chien + +For reference - I've put up a few posts sharing what I've learned. :) + +[How to read an earnings release](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/ohoby5/how_to_read_an_earnings_release_quickly_and_know/) + +[What compounders look like](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/of24o5/keep_an_eye_out_on_compounders_like_msci_for_buy/) + +[How to study a company (business models)](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/of1ko4/how_to_study_a_company_and_its_business_model_and/) + +[Types of industry structures](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/n9iu9b/learnings_from_10_yrs_of_wall_st_experience_know/) + +[How to value a company](https://www.reddit.com/r/FluentInFinance/comments/n719ya/step_by_step_walk_through_of_how_to_value_a/) + +[Shareholder behavior](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/n1im7n/learnings_from_10_yrs_wall_st_experience/) + +[What makes a stock move](https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/n1im7n/learnings_from_10_yrs_wall_st_experience/) +I work in a big tech firm, ~40k employees. One thing that I hear repeatedly from management is that it is essential that we keep onboarding new people, to expand and to grow. This is presented as if it is the most basic fact. "If we don't grow, we won't make money". + +But why is this? I understand that one needs to hire new people to replace the ones that quit. But why isn't this enough? We are already making a surplus as it is. + +EDIT: I should have specified that my firm is a tech *consulting* firm, which makes the business model quite different than for a company that develop their own products. +Been struggling to find a purpose after we hit our number. We’re mid-30s, kids are not on the horizon due to medical issues. I’m just coasting and it feels as if life is sort of passing by me. I’ve explored an interest here and there but deep down in my subconscious I know I’ll never need to work as hard as I did before, and it’s resulted in aimless living and laziness. I’d like to take full advantage of the freedom I have now to build something truly meaningful, or just work towards a meaningful purpose / vision, but I can’t seem to push myself enough to care about anything because I guess there’s no pressing risk. +Am I the only one watching their portfolio skyrocket, and holding cash waiting for a steep market correction that will allow me to purchase more shares at a discount? Every time I log on and see the green I kick myself for not putting in the money earlier, but I have a feeling it'll bite me if I invest now. Anyone else have similar thoughts or any other views on this? +I ask because the people I ask say they have more than that in savings, and I know I have more than that in savings (much more), So I am wondering if Americans are really as bad at saving as the internet says they are. I live way below my means but still live with my parents, My father is upper class and he has a ton more than $1000 in savings, so I am wondering if it is really true that Americans can't save like the internet says, not to say there is anything wrong with the people who don't have that is savings, just wondering why. +Invited for an interview at a prop firm next week and realised how screwed am I. Just graduated from university, traded with technicals on my own for about 4 years using solely technicals (SMA, resistance, trend lines, supports and resistance levels etc) but never dealt or used probability and statistics to trade. + +Took a number of finance classes in school learning about bonds, futures, options, market movements etc. But basically more of the qualitative stuffs rather than the quantitive (but defo not everything). Started prepping and revising all that I've learnt during my intern days as a broker and stuffs from school but checked online and realised most people mentioning that prop interviews are about mental math and statistics. Did my best to review old statistics stuff that I've learn but realised its impossible to catch up to the standards of those who took math in uni or degrees with a high focus of math, whatmore I've only less than a week's time to prepare. + +Although I'm not giving up, will definitely still try my best to prep for the interview despite things looking grim. Just kinda disappointed in myself for not knowing more about the trading industry and preparing myself for it the past few years. Felt like I wasted the past 4 years trying to build a career path the wrong way. I guess this post here is to remind my fellow aspiring traders out there to do more research about the industries you're trying to enter so you will put in the effort where its needed. 💪🏻 +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Nasdaq had its worst day in over two years, S&P was down over 3%. I've personally never lost so much net worth in a day as I did yesterday. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/us-markets-focus-on-wall-street-rout-as-it-batters-global-markets.html + +Futures point to another big loss today. This could all be a blip and we're back to a new record next month. Or it could be the start of a multi-year bear market. We might lose 20 or 50% over the next few years. I have no idea what will happen. + +If you were too heavily exposed to stocks yesterday morning before this happened, it's too late now. *Don't panic*. Hold on tight :) The people who made a killing over the last decade did not panic sell when the market started to self-destruct a decade back, and instead spent years buying up more equities. +Before you criticize the subject and say "WRONG TOPIC", SuperStonk is about mainly $GME and exposing market corruption. RC was invested in Bobby and directly ties in to $GME. This isn't about Bobby. **THIS IS ABOUT CRIME.** + +The Freeman Capital Management (FCM) BBBY story needs further review. MSM put out a story about a 20 year old wiz kid who made over $100million in profit trading BBBY. The whole thing screams “pump and dump” and insider trading. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xlpeo9wmgoi91.png?width=693&format=png&auto=webp&s=39f1c902f1b888bfcab38e7cb2fba865e7ade905 + +According to Mainstream Media, a 20 year old college student named “Jake Spencer Freeman” invested $25 million into BBBY around $5 and made 4X. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fxmrpjdogoi91.jpg?width=797&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a5ebba1b348b2ad4cc380b984c44643ca1466d1f + +[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-investor-made-110-million-from-trading-bed-bath-beyond-and-hes-reportedly-a-20-year-old-student-11660814284](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-investor-made-110-million-from-trading-bed-bath-beyond-and-hes-reportedly-a-20-year-old-student-11660814284) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/h4g25rkpgoi91.jpg?width=791&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f74718bfaed013dab42d93ff67d1426187b4174 + +The SEC filing is found here… This link was provided by marketwatch.com + +[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000193921022000002/bbby.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000193921022000002/bbby.pdf) + +The form that Jake Freeman filed with the SEC was a “13G”. + +Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the Schedule 13D which can be filed in lieu of Schedule 13D by anyone who acquires more than 5% ownership of a Section 13 security and qualifies for one of the exemptions available to the Schedule 13D filing requirement. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_13G) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ll46zykrgoi91.jpg?width=769&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9454c175cdc2a7998a9c9783e59e78368570b05a + +According to the SEC website, Jake did fill a 13G to sell FCM’s BBBY stock. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/iwtuhl8sgoi91.jpg?width=1169&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=170a0543247cdd0f387700d3524ec3ed8422a4be + +A search of the EDGAR system does show that FCM BBBY Holdings LLC, did file just two forms, one on the 07/22 and one on 08/16 of 2022. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lrqdjtssgoi91.jpg?width=1386&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=667f8586f2b3c36a3065241638941cca9b07ec92 + +A closer look at FCM BBBY holdings llc confirms that the company is not actually a registered fund. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/cel2fectgoi91.jpg?width=1431&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e16caedb1d19287c02ccccd75ce0bfa98f6ee226 + +[https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/search/genericsearch/firmgrid](https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/search/genericsearch/firmgrid) + +A search on the SEC advisor search shows no records of “FCM BBBY Holdings llc”. + +Below we search for “FCM” and it's grayed out or “not registered”. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pwa9xtvugoi91.jpg?width=1141&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cdf91bda1938c8be167b06b7200a648492d3b44f + +FCM registration was terminated on 4/20/2021. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ktfcsnfxgoi91.jpg?width=1136&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a973ea70f7be7c6f44a010894f9638b2f1465dd2 + +And since Freeman is investing such a large sum for family and friends… he needs to be registered or he is more than likely commingling his funds with investors. + +Is Freeman even registered? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wiqicp4ygoi91.jpg?width=690&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ade278dca96fda84eb4c96ea8a40fb5c1cebcfc9 + +He is not registered as an investment advisor… + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zy44k1pygoi91.jpg?width=958&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=37c9af173cad63a7f6216437e41289d64a9dd06a + +Jake is also not registered as a series 7 broker and has no professional affiliation with FINRA. + +Let's RECAP here… **MSM put out a story that a 20 year old fund manager made over $100m on BBBY stock. The supposed fund has been closed since 4-20-2021 and Jake has no professional affiliation with FINRA or the SEC.** + +**The SEC has filed 13G from Jake under the firm “FCM BBBY HOLDINGS LLC”. FCM BBBY Holdings is not actually a registered fund. This FUND has never existed and FCM was closed last year.** + +The story goes like this, after Freeman bought the shares he wrote a letter to the Board of Directors of BBBY. The letter is below. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jluobddzgoi91.jpg?width=721&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f8cff19e76f9b096a1afc404cddd248e4e0f60c + +Freeman writes a letter from “FCM” which has not been registered since 2021. And the SEC has this letter on their site. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lfa95z40hoi91.jpg?width=1197&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=82a64dc2395c43868a889eaa025486fb71a88dd7 + +Source: [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000193921022000002/ex.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000193921022000002/ex.pdf) + +So the SEC knows about this… It's on their site. The letter above uses the “Sheridan, WY” address and a gmail email address. + +**Some key details to review…** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nfa6svx0hoi91.jpg?width=676&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11b9382f6d08b23cca173b4f6dc6ee63cf5774ec + +**Freeman raised the money from friends and family. He is writing to the BBBY from a fund that does not exist and he is more than likely commingling his funds with his clients. The entire thing reeks of FRAUD and the SEC seems fine with it.** + +**It gets better…** + +At the end of every article it talks about how Freemans next stock pick is a penny OTC stock called mind med… + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/isnad1tbhoi91.jpg?width=557&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ffba7bb8e1175472d0440831b633ae447a38e01e + +[https://fortune.com/2022/08/18/jake-freeman-usc-student-netted-110-million-dollars-in-bed-bath-beyond-stock-dump/](https://fortune.com/2022/08/18/jake-freeman-usc-student-netted-110-million-dollars-in-bed-bath-beyond-stock-dump/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/3msm0bechoi91.jpg?width=797&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6d04936055d47f5d4159c884c92ebb8f910c45e1 + +Every story about Freeman ends with the Mind Medicine pump… and what happened to that stock? They pumped it… + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pt872tb5hoi91.jpg?width=1450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5f8b0419954d72d6599d5dcd5dc25e3b12f93a09 + +And there you have it… Someone made a boatload pumping this stock from less than 70 cents to $1.40. + +It gets better… MSM reports that the trades were done at TDA and IKBR. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nfwqgr28hoi91.jpg?width=783&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ebf9e4cc640ee6dfc210f9c2f410f8e870aae4d + +[https://money.yahoo.com/20-old-usc-student-netted-122608953.html](https://money.yahoo.com/20-old-usc-student-netted-122608953.html) + +**What does this all mean?** + +**The FCM BBBY pump and dump, followed by the MNMD pump and dump, was possibly a group effort by the MSM, the Brokers and the SEC to pump up this stock and make a boatload of money.** + +**This is market manipulation and my guess is… Jake Freeman was used as a mule to cover the truth. This is most likely insider trading. The institutions know that the new cycles start(ed) and did this to profit off BBBY. They invested $25m and made over $100m front running their own algo.** + +**They then painted a story that he dumped it to cause price anchoring and deter new investors from buying BBBY.** + +**The whole thing reeks of fraud and crime, insider trading and market manipulation with influence from the MSM, Brokers and the SEC.** + +&#x200B; + +\--------------------------------------------------- + +&#x200B; + +Edit 1: + +u/whatt_shee_said + +https://preview.redd.it/aa5kcve6woi91.jpg?width=638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c357840c8097a538ed6885f6c7e33f4f970c3bda + +[https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mindmed-co-founder-dr-scott-freeman-proposes-value-enhancement-plan-301604278.html](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/mindmed-co-founder-dr-scott-freeman-proposes-value-enhancement-plan-301604278.html) + +Edit 2: + +u/RyanMeray + +https://preview.redd.it/h7ht3te2api91.jpg?width=650&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=635f3a91e394c84ba916b1a1a611ee20a261c905 +Folks, + +Although the temperature here isn't as high as WSB, I urge you to stay **VERY VERY VERY** cautious. We all are reading posts online that are highly concerning and outright dangerous. + +# DO NOT INVEST WHAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE! + +I cannot stress enough on this. It's okay to dabble couple of hundred/thousands as you see fit depending on your financial worth but do not be desperate and cut corners from the routine investments/stocks you have in other areas. This is detrimental in every way and will likely eventually lead to major losses. You **cannot** time the market and by the time you understand the situation, you will have lost a lot. Not to mention we Canadians are on the mercy of brokerage which charge FX 1.5-3.0% for every US transaction (buy/sell) and some platforms take 2-5 days to settle deposits which are a barrier in themselves. + +# MAKE NO MISTAKE, THE MARKET WILL CORRECT ITSELF, EVENTUALLY! + +It's only a matter of time, but things will go back to normal eventually. Please do not keep pumping with all your life savings. Many fellow Canadians have lost jobs in this pandemic and are on welfare of some sort. Please double triple think your priorities/emergency savings. Students especially, who need to pay for tuition deposits among other expenses are delaying payments in lieu of investments, I urge you to be **very very prudent.** If you're making large $$$ investments, please speak with your confidant/SO who would help you think through this. + +**I AM NOT DISCOURAGING YOU, but please do your DD and do not jump into this bloodbath if you don't need to. It's completely OKAY to be a spectator and not lose any than sit in some corner over lost $$$'s.** + +If you're a pro trader and understand what's going on, more power to you my friend, send us a selfie from the moon and we will be glad. + +P.S: I'm in this game on a very small level that I feel comfortable with and can stomach the losses. + +Some posts that concerned me and I decided to write this. + +[https://imgur.com/18FVkDP](https://imgur.com/18FVkDP) + +[https://imgur.com/GtKriWA](https://imgur.com/GtKriWA) + +Thanks! +As the title states, my parked car was hit by a guy backing out of his driveway at the end of September. Right after the accident, I called the police, got an accident report, and the other driver admitted fault. I submitted a claim with his insurance, got a letter stating my claim was in process...and I haven't been able to get anything else from them since. I have spoken to their higher ups, left hundreds of messages, and nothing happens. No updates, no one who answers will give me any information, nothing. + +I think I am at the point where I need to file with my insurance to get my car fixed, but I wanted to see if there are any other steps I can or should take. Is getting money from the other driver's shitty insurance company a lost cause? Will my insurance go after them? Do I get a lawyer involved? + +Thanks in advance everyone. + +UPDATE: Thanks for taking the time to give me advice everyone. I just filed with my insurance company to get this going. + +UPDATE: Great feedback, Reddit. Thanks for all taking time to reply. This was my first accident and I feel like I am now much more prepared to handle this. For others like me, go ahead and file with your own insurance, especially if the offending party's insurance is unresponsive. There is no good faith with these people, even with a straight forward accident with a police report. This should be illegal, but it isn't. My insurance has already scheduled repairs at the body shop of my choice and is going after the other party/company. I will check my rates but have been assured they won't go up as I wasn't at fault or even in the vehicle. Again, thanks everyone. You people are great. +Hi all, I never invested in my life, and it's time to start. I want to harness your collective knowledge in this regard, grateful for any suggestions you can give me! Some info about myself: I am 37yrs old, full-time employee living in Maryland. I started to contribute to my 401k with my employer in 2014. + +I am married, family, and mortgage (started 1yrs ago - 30yrs). I managed to save 96K so far in my savings account, and I was thinking to invest 50K and keep the rest as a rainy fund. I tried my best to educate myself on this matter, and I don't want my saving to get depreciated in the saving account and put them to good use. I have a medium time horizon (10/15yrs) and medium risk tolerance (anything over 5% would be great for me). What do you suggest? Vanguard? What's your view on Robo advisors in general? 2020 scared the hell out of me, and I am procrastinating my decisions. I don't come from a family that ever invested (I am from a country "allergic" to markets), and I am fearful that the financial apocalypse is coming, and I am the "idiot" who started investing with the worst timing ever. Grateful if you could put some "sense" and encouragement! Thanks! +I'm an executive at a public company with a 12 figure market cap. Lately, I've started receiving tons of direct calls on my cellphone from recruiters, head hunting agencies, businesses that want to partner with my company, and more. It is annoying to feel like I'm losing control of my personal phone number that I've had for my whole life. + +What's next? People finding my home address and sending me mail? Ringing my doorbell? Contacting my family members? How do I know how much personal information these folks have on me? And most importantly, what tactics are out there to prevent these invasions of privacy from happening in the future? +[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gnc-files-for-bankruptcy-with-plans-to-close-up-to-1200-stores-2020-06-24](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gnc-files-for-bankruptcy-with-plans-to-close-up-to-1200-stores-2020-06-24) + +GNC Holdings Inc. [**GNC,** **-6.89%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GNC?mod=MW_story_quote) filed for bankruptcy late Tuesday, as it expects to accelerate its plan to close at least 800 to 1,200 of its stores. The stock has been halted for news since late Tuesday. The vitamin and wellness supplements retailer, with about 7,300 stores as of March 31, said its stores will remain open, as the company has secured $130 million in liquidity, including $100 million in debtor-in-possession financing and $30 million from modifications to an existing credit facility. GNC, a majority of its secured lenders and Harbin Pharmaceutical Group Holding Co. Ltd., an affiliate of GNC's largest shareholder, have reached an agreement in principle for the sale of the company's business for $760 million, which would be executed through a court-supervised auction. The stock has rallied 74.2% over the past three months through Tuesday, but has tumbled 70.0% year to date, while the S&P 500 [**SPX,** **-0.66%**](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/SPX?mod=MW_story_quote) has slipped 3.1% this year. +Back in the spring I was an idiot and made some dumb moves. You know what happened, something about monkeys and diamonds… Anyway, it was the future and I wasn’t going to be left behind. Like I said, I was an idiot. Jumped on a pump and dump basically…along with some other ‘future tech’ plays. Oh wow, that was smart /s. + +Anyway, I’m sick of it. I was primarily a value investor before and that’s what I’ve been doing since about June. I’m finally comfortable again and have high conviction stocks that I want to buy more of. + +Those big red -50% or more plays in my portfolio have been eating at me. They’ll come back right? Right!? Well, would I buy them today at this price? No. + +So today I finally bit the bullet and locked in those ugly losses. It’s ok though, I think. The idea is to shunt what money is left from those trades into higher convictions stocks. + +Anyway, I was really hesitant to rip off the bandaid but I do feel relived so maybe there are some of you like me. +Can I afford buying a flat? + +I am 33 years old, I live in Brno, in Czech Republic and work as fulltime employee for a well-known stable international company. Me and my wife have one small child, and another is on their way, we don't plan more than 2 children. + +I bring home 4600 eur/mon after tax in stable income. Not including yearly bonuses and stock bonuses, that would account for at least 17k after tax yearly. + +Flat: + +I am looking to buy a flat that is outside of the city. Roughly 1h away from city center by train. The price of the flat is 400k eur. The flat is fully reconstructed, in a small building with just 2 other flats.We would be buying it from a distant family member, who fully reconstructed the flat recently, and it perfectly suites our current and future needs, as well as our style. We probably won't have to make significant investments into the flat for a long time. + +I have 175k in savings, 90% of that is in cash right now, as I sold all stocks I could before the markets dips me into red numbers. From that I would put 120k for down payment, and finance the remaining 280k my mortgage. + +Leaving me some 55k eur in cash and other assets, to have some buffer, pay taxes, and possibly buy a car. + +Mortgage rates are kind of crazy right now, so I am offered 5.99% which with 30 year mortgage makes the monthly payment 1710 eur. The owner pays 400 eur/mo advances on utilities, but says that this should be on the upper limit, because they are purposefully overpaying on the advances to avoid end-of-year surprises. + +The mortgage would have fixed rate for 5 years, but the law in Czech Republic allows you to re-finance any time with a tiny (\~40 eur) fee, and also pay 25% of the original mortgage amount yearly without any fee. + +Car: + +I think we will need to buy a car to get around. We have train nearby, but car will make getting groceries and small weekend trips much easier. I am not a car person, so any car that will fit my family will do. I quickly googled, and Skoda Rapid from 2013 can be bought for about 10k eur, I would pay for the car from my savings without taking additional loan. I assume the montly cost of having and using car would be 400 eur max? (no experience with that) + +&#x200B; + +As for my current finances: + +We are renting a flat close to the city center for 1000eur, including utilities. But our rent will increase, so we will pay 1208 starting next year. We will also have to move to a bigger flat in the next 2 years as the children will grow. A reasonably placed flat that would be comfortably big for our family currently rents for about 1800 eur with utilities outside of center, or about 2400 eur in the area where we currently live. + +My wife is on maternity leave with minimal income. I am able to save 30% of my monthly stable income into ETFs, pension fund, and I save about half of the yearly bonuses.Currently we live like this:1200 stable savings3300 come to my bank-1000 rent + utilities-400 for my wife-400 for me-400 groceries, and necessities-400 luxuries= 700 in additional savings some of which we burn on additional luxuries\~17.5k/yr savings + +After mortgage:400 savings (1200 - 810 see below)3300 come to my bank account-1710 mortgage-400 utilities-400 for my wife-400 for me-400 groceries, and necessities-400 luxuries-400 car= -810 that I would need to cut back from my other monthly savings + +Can I afford to buy? I know that the first year or 2 could be a bit tough, but the mortgage rates should go down and I am getting stable raises at work. I also have excel table that tells me that I saved half of my savings in the past 3 years. Am I being irrational here, and simply like the flat too much? + +&#x200B; + +*edited: fixed bonus number to not say 17500k eur. With 17mil yearly bonus I would not have this problem. :)* +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](http://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned. +posts and comment like [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comments/903qpw/people_only_profitable_with_cfdstocks_and_futures/) are confusing. sometimes people speak like almost all forexers loss money. +i grew up in poverty and i am still broke, still under educated and under skilled. going to crummy public k-12 schools turned my brain into shit and i am still recovering from all that trauma. + +i am still weak, still under-educated. there doesn't seem to be any happy ending for me anytime soon. +If everyone thinks the stock will breakout after an ascending triangle could someone take advantage of that to drive the price up higher, trap bulls and take the profits? + +If everyone thinks the stock will continue in a strong down trend after a bear flag could someone create a bear flag to signal to the market to sell, driving it lower so that they can buy it for a better price? + +Im wondering if for every pattern I’m learning about is there someone using it against me? I’ve heard Dux say he avoids heavily manipulated pennystocks and only trades between $5 - $10 and a higher volume. Also aware that this happens a lot in crypto. What about the types of volatile stocks you guys are trading? + +I’m just VERY sceptical because I got screwed by a culty hyped up biotech twitter stock (before I knew anything about day trading and I was basically gambling) and then this stock dropped down to $2 and I did research and all of the insiders, CEO, CFO had sold millions. They dumped it all. So I kind of just don’t trust anyone. Not even the CEO lol. + +I’m guessing this is why you have to look at other indicators and technical analysis in conjunction with just looking at patterns but as someone who has never day traded I’m wondering how reliable patterns are for you guys or if you’ve experienced any manipulation? +**Lesson 1:** Stop thinking it’s too late. We haven’t even seen the tip of the iceberg. Even in 2013, people would say "Those that bought in 2012 were so lucky, we are too late. We'll just get the scraps." Same for 2017. You wish you bought when it was cheap, but would you? Probably not. Why didn’t you buy more when it dropped to $4K last year? Would you have held if your money tripled or quadrupled? + +Everyone has been telling me it is too late since 2013. 99% of my friends didn't buy at $200, or $2000, or $20,000 per BTC because it was "too late". Don't make the same mistake. It's not too late, Bitcoin isn't even a teenager yet, it's only 12 years old. + +**Lesson 2:** Stop thinking about the 50 BTC you lost on satoshi dice (yeah, coins were cheap back then), or the 5 BTC for that bag of herb that you smoked (or that acid you took). It’s gone. Stop thinking you should have sold at $20K and bought back in at $3K instead of hodling all the way down and capitulating “to buy at $1.8K”. Stop thinking you can time the dips, and sell the tops. Stop regretting not buying earlier. + +In short, stop fantasizing about what you could have done in the past and start thinking about today and the future. This is the mindset you should have: + +*“What should I do today, so that tomorrow, I won’t regret yesterday?”* + +"Buy Bitcoin" is the right answer, by the way. + +**Lesson 3:** Building things will require a lot of sacrifice. I would have way more BTC if I didn't start a Bitcoin startup in the Philippines back in 2014. 7 years in this industry feels like 70! I grew many white hairs in the last 7 years. I know many people who have the same experience -- those who would be wealthier and more relaxed today had they just bought Bitcoin and Hodled instead of building stuff. But at the end of the day, you can still accumulate AND build. Again, it is not too late, even at this stage. Stack sats while building stuff! And always remember that the backbone of this industry are the tens of thousands of people out there, building stuff to make Bitcoin WORK, to make Bitcoin accessible. This isn't some vaporware with no backing - it is backed by human ingenuity and the blood, sweat, and tears of all the startups and companies out there making sure this thing survives and thrives. + +**Lesson 4:** Bitcoin will keep surprising us. Don’t believe people who tell you they know what will happen. When you think it is time to sell because you’ll be able to buy cheaper later, it will break out and up. When you think we will “never see X price again” we'll see it again. When people say this is is, this is the peak, it won't be the peak. Be prepared for faces to melt and minds to crumble into madness from disbelief at what Bitcoin will achieve. + +*There is no army in the world that can stop an idea whose time has come.* + +**Lesson 5:** Bitcoin is a remarkable phenomenon, a once in a generation opportunity to participate in the evolution of how we move value around the world. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either ignorant or trying to deceive you. This network has gone through the most crucial tests of pressure and time that make it anti-fragile. Pressure and time, that’s really all it takes. Everything else will be built around this bedrock foundation. + +**Lesson 6:** Mass adoption is a myth. Bitcoin doesn’t need "mass adoption". More like, mass adoption needs Bitcoin. It only needs a small % of the world’s wealth to “get there”. Bitcoin makes no promises other than to reliably and consistently create new publicly verifiable blocks of immutable transactions every ten minutes. This is all it needs to keep doing consistently and securely for its value to increase exponentially over time. Everything else is gravy. + +**Lesson 7:** We still have at least another decade of this crazy rollercoaster ride before Bitcoin starts to get even slightly boring. Just strap in and enjoy it. + +**Lesson 8:** Make some friends along the way. Make enemies if need be. I’ve made lifelong connections and relationships in the last 8 years in this industry. I have had a dedicated Buttcoiner hate group that created fake accounts similar to my name to try and embarrass me. Fake accounts, phishing, hacks, personal attacks. I don't give a fuck. And like I keep saying, we’ve only just begun. + +A lot of the people you meet today will be playing huge roles in this industry in the near future. You’ll be in good company when the time comes. At the end of the day, life is all about the relationships you make along the way. Make sure they're meaningful ones. + +Most of the friends I made since 2013 who have stuck around are already wealthy beyond their wildest dreams, and they're still sticking around, giving back, helping others, helping their communities, doing awesome shit. + +**Lesson 9:** Do watch out for snakes and wolves disguised as people. Been scammed, lied to, stolen from, used, abused, harassed, you name it. There are a lot of bad actors out there, hiding behind smiling faces. They want what's yours and will go through great lengths to get it. Don't let anyone tell you different. These people will stab you in the back, slit your throat, take everything, and leave you out in the alley talking to yourself about what the fuck just happened. If you don't believe me, then you're the lamb that's going off to the slaughter. + +**Lesson 10:** Take it easy. It’s easy to get caught up in all the hype, to want all that attention. It’s easy to get lost in the confidence of a bull market and the despair of a bear market. Step back and try to gain the peace of a lofty perspective. + +When you’ve been in the Bitcoin game for a while, you gain a certain peace. A relaxed comfort. Eyes open, ears open, radar up. Absorbing every message. Taking everything as it comes. Not mixing what they really are with what you want them to be. It's like an aerial view. + +A view from above the myriad luck-dependent reactions of those who never gain such a peace. And when you gain that view, that peace - when you'd rather have the truth, no matter how disappointing, over a false hope, no matter how desirable - then you will finally understand the true meaning of hodling Bitcoin. + +See you guys in another 8 years. + +------- + +Edit: *Wrote this two years ago, edited it a bit to reflect certain recent developments. Back then, Bitcoin price had just broken out of the deep recesses of the 2018 bear market and rose from about $3500 to $10000 in a couple of months. Thought it was worth a re-share today.* + +Edit: Adding one of the best articles about Bitcoin out there, [The Bullish Case for Bitcoin.](https://vijayboyapati.medium.com/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1) A must-read for all newbies and veterans alike. +The problem with me is I am able to somewhat decide when to enter the particular industry /stock but I get stuck when I decide to take exit . Sometimes it is the greed of getting more and more profit on that stock, sometimes it is like the industry to which stock belongs has a lot of future scope . These things put me in dilemma and I ain't able to decide what are the factors one should consider while taking an exit from a particular stock and when should the alarm be triggered to indicate that hey you need to exit now . +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/the-fed-now-owns-nearly-one-third-of-all-us-mortgages + +Key points from the article: + +* The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds since March. It bought around $300 billion of the bonds in each of March and April, and since then has been buying about $100 billion a month. +* The Fed now owns almost a third of bonds backed by home loans in the U.S. +* Buying the securities has pushed mortgage rates lower, with the average 30-year rate falling to 2.91% as of last week from 3.3% in early February. +* Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out in late March that the buying was running at eight times the pace seen in prior episodes of Fed purchasing under programs known as quantitative easing. +* Just before this latest round, principal payments from its mortgage bond holdings had whittled that down to 21%, but it has now increased back to 30%. +* If the Fed maintains its current buying pace, it will again own 34% of the mortgage universe by year’s end. +Hey all, just a reminder to be extra-vigilant. I was reading about gas prices on https://myetherwallet.groovehq.com/knowledge_base/topics/what-is-gas and, without clicking on anything, suddenly was taken to https://kvnuke.github.io/etherwallet/ which looks JUST LIKE MEW. + +I don't know if this means that groovehq is corrupted or what, but be careful. + +UPDATE: Clicking on the link to http://ethgasstation.info/ on this page redirected me to the spoofed MEW again. Stay away from this page; I believe it has been quietly hacked. +I love working from home. It has changed my life. But there is something I miss about going into the office. + +I miss having friends. I don't mean colleagues. I mean friends. Where I used to work I used to go out for lunch every day with my two friends. + +We were a tight-knit circle and kept to ourselves. We were in the same team and would always complain about the management style. We lived and breathed the same air and related to each other's experiences so well because we all did the same job. + +I am not talking about colleagues, but rather I am referring to close friends who happen to work with you. + +It made the experience so enjoyable. Nothing ever felt like a grind. We were on the same boat, comfortably coasting by. + +And nowadays when I work from home, it sometimes feel like a bit of a grind. Yes, I do not have to worry about long commute times or office politics. But there is something so profoundly missing. + +I find that after I finish up work, I'll go outside for a walk or a run, maybe call a friend, or go walking with mum. I try my best to fill this void but it is always there. +**TLDR:** How the MOASS could play out. At least read "Day 1". + +**Day 1:** You wake up and 1st thing you do after getting rid of your pee boner is check your favorite stonk price. + +**It's at $101,352. WTF? Must be a glitch.** + +**You check Reddit - It's down** + +You check the ticker price again on your phone and on a different site on your computer. **The price is now $198,567.** WTF? You've now gone from 6 to 9. + +You check Youtube Gangnam style and Wu-tang CREAM - **Mass confusion**. Shit posts everywhere. Nothing but people asking if the ticker price is right. People are saying they just sold all their shares and made $20million. Your phone says the **price is now $330,298.** + +You check Twitter - some of the ape handles that you love & trust. **Mass confusion**. Gherk, Dave, Bucky, Red, Pink, Buttfarm. **Some say they cashed out and MOASS is over.** You'll later find out that every single one of them were hacked by SHF shills. But you panic and check the ticker price. **$97,083 and dropping fast. Holy fuck. Did you miss it?** + +**No.** Look at the volume. 110million shares traded so far today. Not nearly enough. Clear your head and compose yourself. Take a deep breath. Grab some breakfast, grab a glass of water, and log into your broker/CS accounts. **This is it. The MOASS is actually happening.** + +Redditt is still down, google is acting funny, you even occasionally get booted out of your broker account. **Mass confusion. Shills everywhere you look.** **Many paper handed bitches selling in the 6 figures.** + +**Day 2:** You call in sick and watch the ticker all day. **VIOLENT ticker moves up and down. $50k to $500k swings.** There's many times where you think "fuck, if I sell now I can retire. I can retire my parents too". But you don't. **The price ends at $487,562** and then instantly starts dropping again hard AH. + +**The MSM is reporting everything from glitches to terrorist hacks to calls for apes to be hunted down and thrown in jail for market manipulation.** + +**Day 3:** Your erection keeps you up all night, but you wake up early the next morning and are ready for the morning bell. It opens at over $1million, then roller coasters all day again. **The price closes at $2,274,350.** **Reddit is STILL DOWN!** You are pretty much in the dark now as there is nothing but the ticker and **MASS confusion.** + +**By now the world knows what's happening. The few people you've told about GME are calling you**, even knocking on your door screaming at you to sell your shares right NOW! You ignore all of them. + +**Day 4:** **You sell 1 share** in your broker account for over $4million because your Mom needs a life saving surgery. You're still holding your other xxx with diamond hands though. **It's game time. You've been preparing for this for nearly a full year now. Every day. You've read the DD, you know what to do.** Calmness and euphoria begin to set in. You call your boss and give them your 2 weeks notice. You never have to work again. **The price ends at $8,129,472.** + +**Day 5:** **Reddit is finally back up but it's a shill factory.** Everything from "here's my new lambo" posts to "HOLD THE LINE!!!" posts to "It's over!!! Sell now!" every time there's a dip or lull in the price. Even some of the most trusted people on here are saying to sell. Hacked? Shills all along? Paper handed bitches? Who knows. Who cares. **You realize though that those dips/lulls are just transitions from 1 SHF to the next getting liquidated.** Another SHF is going to be up on the chopping block next, and sure enough. BAM! Million dollar price increases again in the afternoon. **Volume hit over 100mill shares for the 5th day in a row.** Apes are trying to calculate how much volume is left before this is all over. No one really knows though. Cramer has a heart attack on air. **Price ends at $6,400,693. Fuck, is it over? Nah, it can't be. In Apes you trust.** + +**It's the weekend. HOLY FUCK. You're life has changed.** Your whole life is one long weekend now. Same with your parents, your family, even some of your close friends. **You have 'fuck you' money now if you sold, but you're not selling yet.** You sift through the shills all weekend to get as good of an idea of major events as you can. **Still no word on an SHF arrests though.** + +**Day 6:** The price opens at $39,998,331, and steadily climbs all day. A few multi million dollar dips, but it doesn't phase you. **Price closes at $65,989,455.** + +**Day 7:** **The price crosses the "GMEFloorPrice" of $75million.** You start to think about selling a few shares. **You sell 10% in your broker account** when it hits $80million, but it keeps climbing. You start doing the math on how many millions of dollars you've just missed out on and it ends up being over $50million. Whoops. **Price closes at $87,577,110.** + +**Day 8: The whole world stops when the price crosses $100,000,000.** You've got FUCK YOU money now, so you're hodling for the rest of the little apes. Price closes at **$125,450,999. Phone number territory.** + +**Day 9: Price peaks at $xxx,xxx,xxx** (I'm not saying an exact # so I don't get called a shill myself lol), **and starts to decline fast. Apes are finally selling. Volume is over 2 billion!!! Time to sell? Maybe. You sell 10% of your broker shares throughout the day.** You're now a billionaire. You also see on the news that 18 HF's have been raided for illegal activities. Ken G and Steve C are seen getting carried away in handcuffs. **Price closes at $92,209,433.** + +**Day 10:** **Volume back down to 100mill, but the price is pretty stagnant in the $80-$90million range. You sell 50% of the remainder of your broker shares.** + +**Another weekend:** You start making arrangements to protect your money, and tell your loved ones they are set for life and that you'll explain later. + +**Day 11: Volume and price declining FAST. Price closes under $50million. You still have nearly half your broker shares though. Fuck. Actually, who cares? You're a billionaire.** + +**Day 12: You sell the remaining broker shares you have at $25,420,069. You still are hodling your CS shares. You're never selling those. And that creates a huge problem for the SHF's, Clearing Houses, DTCC, and Gov't.** + +**Day 13-365:** The price remains in the 8 figures as the MOASS unwinds, governments start inquiries, more arrests are made, industry wide sweeping changes are being called for. All the people that laughed at you for buying Gamestop shares are now sucking up to you and telling you how "lucky" you are. + +There's still shorts outstanding, but diamond handed apes barely touch their CS shares. **You did it. Well done Ape. Now go enjoy your life** and if you ever see DFV, give him a big ape-hug for changing not only your world, but the entire world. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT1&2: Wow, thank you all for the awards. I'm trying to thank anyone, but if I miss you, I'm sorry. Cheers everyone. HOLY MOLY! This is nuts. I'm glad I've entertained you today. Cheers everyone and thank you! + +EDIT 3: I also got my very first 'concerned for my health' messages from Reddit! What a milestone lol. I can assure you, I love my life and would never consider harming myself or others. +What are everyone's thoughts on Shopify these days? It's been pretty beat up over the year which might be a good time for a long-term buy but Canadian Tech is always risky (looking at you Nortel & Blackberry...). + +[https://www.businessinsider.com/shopify-rescinds-offers-for-some-fall-interns-pauses-recruiting-2022-7](https://www.businessinsider.com/shopify-rescinds-offers-for-some-fall-interns-pauses-recruiting-2022-7) +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Breaking news or important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +(NEO:MEDV; OTC:COPRF; FRA:4NC) + +**Medivolve** + +Medivolve is a Canadian publicly traded company that seeks out disruptive technologies, ground-breaking innovations, and exclusive partnerships to help combat COVID-19 and generate remarkable risk-adjusted returns for investors. + +With a seasoned executive team and renowned global advisors that provide expertise across industries, Medivolve offers investors a diversified investment in the COVID-19 medical space across geographic regions and three focus areas: detection, prevention, and treatment. + +Medivolve’s primary focus is to provide convenient and assessable medical services for testing of the COVID-19 virus to help combat the pandemic. + +Medivolve’s wholly-owned subsidiary Collection Sites, LLC continues to help consumers access its effective and convenient COVID-19 testing solution. + +**Medivolve’s Propietary Advantage:** + +* Research team Google Partner powered digital analytics +* Investment team with combined experience of 500-years + +* Advisory board providing wide spectrum of brilliant insight +* Network comprised of experts, specialists & thought leaders +* Global team of operational teams and organizations + +**Market Opportunity:** + +The global COVID-19 diagnostics market size is estimated at USD$84.4 billion in 2020 and is expected to expand at a compounded annual growth rate (**CAGR) of 3.1%** from 2021 to 2027. **Wells Fargo estimates that US. Covid-19 testing market of $157 Billion.** + +**Collection Sites** + +Medivolve’s wholly owned subsidiary Collection Sites has rolled out over 740 Covid-19 testing sites across the U.S. with partners including Simon Property Group, Brookfield, Sandor, H&S Energy Products, etc. Collection Sites provides quick and convenient Covid-19 testing in conjunction a CLIA registered lab, including rapid antigen, PCR and rapid antibody test with insurance coverage options. + +**There is also a significant and substantial upside per test. The testing market is highly profitable with projected ABITDA margins over 55% and potential monthly revenue of US$428K** + +Collection Sites offers same-day results from certified high complexity Alcala Labs with **98% accuracy**. Each site can complete up to 150 tests per cube per day at an affordable US$100 per test. The current demand for tests in the U.S. is 30 million tests per week, making the testing market extremely lucrative. + +**Recent News:** + +***Collection Sites Launches Operating Partnership to Extend Covid-19 testing with Besser Brands*** + +Medivolve Inc. announced the launch of an operating model with Besser Brands in the state of Florida. Under this framework Besser Brands is initially operating 9 Collection Sites locations under the Collection Sites branding, where they are responsible for all related operating costs and systems management. In return for using the Collection Sites name, Besser Brands will pay a royalty on all tests sold. Implementing a franchise-type model will allow Collection Sites to more rapidly expand its network and leverage its infrastructure and branding to generate additional revenues for the company. + +***Medivolve Closes Noble Biosciences Transaction*** + +Medivolve has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement and subsequently closed the transaction to acquire 100% of Noble Bioscience Corp. Medivolve issued a total of 12.5 million Medivolve common shares to the shareholders of Noble Bioscience, in exchange for a 100% interest in Noble Bioscience. + +Noble Bioscience holds the agency rights to Nuturell’s Surface Shield technology in the United States, Canada and Caribbean countries. Nuturell’s non-toxic silver surface shield technology is a COVID-19 disinfectant that converts into a protective shield when air dry, killing the coronavirus among other pathogens for up to 90 days after only \~30 seconds of contact. Nuturell’s Surface Shield technology was created to overcome the limitations of standard harsh chemical disinfectants and cleaning agents that suffer from various constraints such as their harmfulness, corrosive nature and bacterial resistance. + +&#x200B; + +Disclaimer: Please do your own research. This is not investment advice +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +One day ago, this sub had about 250 members. Now look at it. You apes, all of you, are beautiful, diamond-handed smooth brain crayon-eating rocket-launching legends. I've never seen a sub grow so fast. + +Please take a look at the rules. We did our best to keep them simple, and while we are focused on a non-censored sub, we will remove if we must. We do have some mods who have graciously dedicated their time to help moderate the sub, so give them some props. + +And without further adieu, here is the daily discussion: +WSB convert here. I’ll always have love for that sub but over the last week it’s become nothing but an echo chamber. Anyone with an opposing view or asking valid questions is a “bot”, “shill” or “fake news”. This is just another example of the problems plaguing this country. We have a serious issue with information literacy and critical thinking. + +I’m going to watch the Tasty Trade videos posted here before I ask any stupid questions. + +Rant over, I look forward to learning! +>Dear [Boss], +> +>Please accept this letter as notice of my resignation from the position of [job] at [company]. +> +>I will continue to work for the company for the next two months, completing my employment on [date]. +> +>I have enjoyed being a part of the team and am thankful for the opportunities you have given me during my time here. If there are any areas in particular you would like me to focus on during my notice period, please let me know. I'm more than happy to help train anybody to fill this roll moving into the future as well. +> +>I hope that I can rely on you for a positive reference in future. +> +>Yours sincerely, +> +>SingularianNeuralNet + +This was my whole letter. +I was told it was unprofessional by his assistant and that I should have called my boss to talk to him about leaving before submitting a formal notice so he knew why and what my plans are. +My mother works in the same company and she was contacted before me by the assistant to see what my plans are and why I want to quit. (I'm in my mid 20s living on the other side of the country as her and we talk sparsely, there's no precedent for her being questioned in my mind.) I was told he'd be contacting me soon, I gave up trying to contact him because he never responds. + +I sent this late last month and I haven't heard anything from him whatsoever. + +My new job is giving me a sign on bonus and doubling my annual salary so there's no chance I will be staying here at all. I want to know what you guys think and if there's something I should do that I may not know to do. Thanks. + + +EDIT: +- role, not roll. I goofed. +- I didn't actually use my reddit name in this letter +- I work in a high specialty field in a high position. They won't be able to hire someone off the street, thus the reason for the long notice. +- Boss was not contacted before hand because he has not responded to me for over a month prior. Weeks-months at a time without response before that. +- Boss lives and works >500 miles away. Phone/email are the only ways to readily contact him. +- redacted info to be more anonymous +https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-orders-100000-tesla-cars-bloomberg-news-2021-10-25/ + +>Oct 25 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) surpassed $1 trillion in market value on Monday after landing its biggest-ever order from rental car company Hertz, a deal that reinforced the electric car leader's ambitions to top the entire auto industry in sales over the next decade. + +>Tesla shares surged as much as 14.9% to $1,045.02, making it the world's most valuable automaker according to Reuters calculations based on its latest filing. + +>Even Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk expressed surprise at the velocity of the surge. "Strange that moved valuation, as Tesla is very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem," Musk tweeted in reply to a comment by Ross Gerber, co-founder of the investment fund Gerber Kawasaki and a Tesla shareholder. + +>"Wild $T1mes!" Musk wrote in a separate tweet. + +>Tesla is the first carmaker to join the elite club of trillion-dollar companies that includes Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O). + +>Most automakers do not boast about sales to rental car companies, often made at discounts to unload slow-selling models. But for Tesla and its investors, Hertz's decision to order 100,000 Tesla vehicles by the end of 2022 showed electric vehicles are no longer a niche product, but will dominate the mass car market in the near future. + +>"Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we've only just begun to see rising global demand and interest," Hertz interim Chief Executive Officer Mark Fields told Reuters. + +>Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has set an annual sales growth target of 50%, on average, eventually reaching 20 million vehicles a year. That would be more than twice the volume of current sales leaders Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T). + +>Consumer demand for electric vehicles is turning a corner in some major markets. The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling vehicle of any kind in Europe last month, consulting firm JATO Dynamics reported Monday. read more + +>Tesla also appeared on Monday to be making progress resolving regulatory problems that threatened its business in China. The company said it had opened a new data and research center in Shanghai to comply with government requirements that data collected from vehicles in China stay in the country. read more + +>However, Tesla faced new U.S. regulatory pressure on Monday. The National Transportation Safety Board's new chief sent Musk a letter questioning why Tesla was rolling out its "Full Self Driving" software even though the company has not officially responded to the NTSB's questions about the automated driving system's safety. + +>"It (the Hertz order) puts an exclamation point under guidance for 50%+ growth in deliveries," Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin said. "Another solid piece of evidence EVs are going mainstream." + +>Tesla now faces the daunting day-to-day challenge of becoming a high-volume automaker growing at a rate not seen since the early 1900s when demand exploded for Henry Ford's Model T. + +>Tesla is coping with an order backlog for its vehicles and extended supply chain disruptions. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn cautioned investors during a call last week that Tesla's near-term production goals will hinge on resolving those disruptions and ramping up two new, huge assembly and battery plants in Austin and Berlin. read more + +>"There is quite an execution journey ahead of us," Kirkhorn said. + +>Rivals are not sitting still. Daimler AG's (DAIGn.DE) Mercedes-Benz brand, General Motors Co (GM.N), Ford Motor Co (F.N), and startups such as Lucid (LCID.O) and China's Xpeng (9868.HK) are all battling Tesla with new electric cars or trucks. + +>Investors and analysts, for now, are looking past the near-term challenges. Morgan Stanley boosted its Tesla price target by 33% to $1,200 as the brokerage expects the electric carmaker to surpass 8 million deliveries in 2030. + +>The Hertz deal also underscored the power of the Tesla brand, as the rental car company emerges from bankruptcy and aims to revive its once-dominant brand. Hertz's rescue is led by a group of investors including Knighthead Capital Management, Certares Opportunities and Apollo Capital Management. + +>"We absolutely believe that this is going to be competitive advantage for us," interim Hertz CEO Mark Fields said of the Tesla order, due to be delivered by the end of 2022. + +>"We want to be a leader in mobility. ... Getting customers experience with electrified vehicles is an absolute priority for us." + +>Tesla's cheapest Model 3 sedan starts at about $44,000, making this order worth about $4.4 billion, if the entire order were for its mass-market sedan. + +>Fields declined to say how much Hertz was paying for the order. Tesla was not immediately available for comment. + +>With the current order, Hertz said EVs will make up more than 20% of its global fleet. Fields cited the rising number of EVs for sale and consumer interest in electrified vehicles. + +>Hertz also said it was installing thousands of chargers throughout its network. Customers who rent a Tesla Model 3 will have access to 3,000 Tesla supercharging stations throughout the United States and Europe. + +>Tesla shares closed up 12.7% at $1,024.86. + +**Edit**: Imagine you time travel back to October 25th, 2019. Two years ago, TSLA stock was trading at **$59.64**, pre-split, and have the following conversation with someone: + +You: I came from the future, in 2 years TSLA will be trading at $1,000 and is part of the S&P500. + +Them: An almost 20x increase? Hahahah right and what else? Bitcoin goes to $50k? LMAO. + +You: Actually no, it went through a 5:1 split, so almost a 100x increase. And also let me tell you about this thing called Shibainu coin and a global pandemic... + +Now thinking about it, the past 2 years have been *wild* haven't they... +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Folks who are always bearish, where on earth do you keep your money? + +I've doing this for a long time (since 90s) and certainly have seen rough stretches. In fact, I was a derivatives trader at RBC during the dot.com implosion. But on a whole, I've never left the market and have been very well rewarded for it. Thoughout that time, there has been constant gloom and doom right in the face of objective evidence that the market always tends upwards due to technology, globalization and increasing market participation. All my assets are split between investment properties and equities. In the two decades I've been investing, I was told every single year that I was going to lose it all. I'm 46 now. Fully retired all thanks to the stock market and real estate market. I still trade, holding only 8 positions. The rental income from multiple properties is well north of what my family requires each year. + +Folks who are constantly saying the stock market and real estate market is going crash, where do you put your money while you're waiting for this to happen? + +Edit: didn't mean for this to come off snarky. Investing is about the next best alternative. What is the next best alternative for folks who think the capital markets or real estate markets are going to crash? Where has your money been sitting all these years? +**Obligatory disclaimer:** This is not financial advice. This is speculative. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +There has been a great deal of uproar over the recent stock split as a dividend by Gamestop and the DTCC’s handling of this event. I started this out by trying to summarize the difference between a stock split and a stock split as a dividend in their effect on shorts and more specifically, naked shorts. This turned into finally realizing the most likely reason the vote count was not a massive overvote and why the DTCC had to incorrectly file this as a stock split. It also potentially explains the meaning behind 7:41 from Ryan Cohen’s tweets. Through all this, I think that Ryan Cohen fully expected everything that has happened regarding the recent corporate action and has accounted for it. + +**The correct steps that happened:** + +* Gamestop submitted their appropriate filings and announcements for a stock split as a dividend. + * See the SEC website containing these filings, namely the 8-K filing by Gamestop. +* Gamestop creates 3 new shares for every 1 existing share resulting in 4 times as many shares. + * Gamestop confirmed they did this. +* These newly created shares are given to the transfer agent, Computershare, to distribute. + * Gamestop confirmed they did this. +* Computershare handles all directly registered (DRS’d) shares and distributes 3 newly created shares for every 1 existing DRS’d share to the corresponding accounts. + * Computershare confirmed they did this. + * Gamestop confirmed Computershare did this. +* Computershare then hands all remaining newly created shares by Gamestop over to the DTCC. + * Computershare confirmed they did this. + * Gamestop confirmed Computershare did this. + +**Where it went wrong:** + +* The DTCC has not acknowledged that they received shares from Computershare. +* The DTCC communicated to brokerages and banks across the world to process this as a stock split. +* Brokerages are now saying it was always supposed to be a regular 4:1 stock split. Brokerages are saying that Gamestop’s SEC filings and even recent official and public comments clarifying that it is supposed to be a 4:1 stock split processed as a dividend are incorrect. + +**Questions from this:** + +* Where did the shares Computershare sent to the DTCC go? + * Can really only speculate that the DTCC held onto them, distributed them to shorts, or just ignored them. + +**How a stock split plays out for shorts (what happened):** + +* Value is divided by 4. +* Total circulating stock is multiplied by 4. + * 304 million shares are supposed to exist. + * If there are 100 million short shares before the corporate action, there are 400 million short shares after the corporate action. The ratio has not changed. All it takes is a simple multiplication in the accounting for short positions to not be impacted. + * **How this accounting works:** + * Multiply by 4 and go home. +* No effective change to anything other than increased liquidity. +* Shorts are unharmed. +* Brokers are unharmed by DRS or sells because they were told by the DTCC it was a stock split. + +**How a stock split as a dividend plays out for shorts (what was supposed to happen):** + +* Only roughly 76 million shares are supposed to exist before the corporate action. +* Only roughly 76,000,000 \* 4 = 304 million shares are supposed to exist after the corporate action. +* If there are 100 million short shares, there are now 400 million short shares in obligations. That means that 300 million more short shares have to be taken into account. But, they cannot just come from anywhere and it is not a simple accounting fix. + * **How this accounting works:** + * **Assuming legal shorting where an allocation exists from borrowing the relevant share:** + * **What if naked shorting where an allocation does not exist from borrowing a share:** + + + +**EDIT: Overvoting reconciliation methods:** [**https://katten.com/Proxy-Vote-Processing-Issues**](https://katten.com/Proxy-Vote-Processing-Issues) + +Here's a description from the law firm Katten, one of the few entities to discuss overvoting: "If a broker reports too many votes in aggregate, the tabulator will notify the broker of the discrepancy. The broker then rectifies the problem, and resubmits its voting report. How does the tabulator know that the broker has reported too many votes? All transfers are netted at the level of the depositories, such as DTCC, which notifies the tabulator of the number of shares a particular broker actually holds." + +If the DTCC does not allow for duplicate control numbers in their system either due to oversight in code or malicious code, and the tabulator's systems do not allow for duplicated control numbers in their system, when the broker votes duplicated control numbers, neither the tabulator nor the DTCC will need to report an anomaly because it wasn't detected. + +The broker also does not have to technically vote all entitled votes: "A broker following a post-reconciliation model allows its clients to vote all the shares that they hold in their accounts, including any shares that may have been re-hypothecated. If the broker subsequently determines that the process will result in more aggregate votes than it is entitled to register, it will reduce votes in some order of priority, generally starting with re-hypothecated shares in margin accounts and its own proprietary shares. A broker that follows a post-reconciliation model will not always have to “cut back” votes in this manner, because some clients who are otherwise entitled to vote will decline to do so" (again from Katten). So this is another possibility. The Pre-reconciliation model is also similar in that brokers will ignore re-hypothecated shares ahead of time for margin accounts. This is the whole problem with both proxy voting and how brokers give their clients beneficial ownership. + +&#x200B; + +**Why did the DTCC do this and how could it relate to vote counts:** + +* Does the DTCC really hold the counterfeited shares? Or do they just appear on brokerage balance sheets? Do they even know how many are out there? +* Is this why nothing was heard about vote counts? Did they have to process it as a regular stock split so the DTCC wouldn’t even get the requests for the circulating shares including naked shorts? Does this keep the existence of counterfeit shares off of the DTCC’s books? +* Voting was done through control numbers for shares; are the counterfeited shares utilizing duplicated control numbers? This would keep votes from far-exceeding the outstanding shares and off the DTCC’s books. The code for voting could have been set up in a way to either ignore any duplicate control number votes or to replace them if the same control number is voted again. This code could appear reasonable as you would not want duplicated votes or entries into the DTCC’s systems. +* I believe that the DTCC and voting systems were set up in a way to ignore duplicate control numbers. As such, there was no overvote for Gamestop and the DTCC does not have on their books any counterfeit shares. +* Requests from brokers for dividend shares in excess of the amount allocated by Computershare to the DTCC would force the DTCC to reveal the existence and potentially the quantity of naked shorts on GME at which point the issue would have to be rectified resulting in a potential short squeeze. + +**What happens if/when this is fixed:** + +* This results in a huge mess. How do you even being to handle distributing shares from the DTCC now? Shares have been sold and DRS’d since then. The brokerages are no longer custodially holding the same number of shares. How does anyone know which shares should receive the share dividend? Unfortunately, unless these brokerages have the most detailed records and all get together and cross-reference their records, this mess cannot be retroactively fixed. +* For instance, suppose John has 1 share prior to the stock split as a dividend and 4 after in Robinhood. He sells all 4 shares to David who holds them in Fidelity. Robinhood needs 3 shares from the DTCC for the stock split as a dividend. Nobody knows that those specific shares went to David holding in Fidelity. Robinhood sold 4 shares incorrectly and then receives 3 more from the DTCC. Now those 4 shares are held by David in Fidelity and Robinhood got 3 shares. There are now 7 total shares from that 1 share (7:41 or 7 shares-4-1 share). Robinhood can’t track down that the shares went to Fidelity and then send them over, so those 3 shares need to be discarded instead. I’m not entirely sure if you can just discard shares like that, I don’t know if anyone knows because I doubt something like this has happened before. + +**Too Big To Fail on the Global Scale:** + +* The actual short interest of Gamestop is likely over 100%. +* It is hypothesized that any short hedge funds would go bankrupt and the liability would fall to their prime brokers, insurance, the DTCC, and the FED should shorts have to close their short positions. This would put the US stock market into a very precarious situation where billions to trillions of dollars are needed to close the shorts. +* The short hedge funds, the DTCC, and the FED were the parties in danger of a short squeeze and financial ruin. But, GME is an internationally held stock. Other countries and their governments likely do not care what happens to these entities. +* Enter the DTCC with a filing against Gamestop’s intentions and this is now a potential global crisis: + * Banks and brokerages across the world are now faced with the issue that their clients should have received shares through the dividend. + * Should this issue be corrected and the stock split is correctly changed to be a stock split as a dividend, banks and brokerages across the world are now in need of shares to cover their current holdings. + * Any shares sold or DRS’d from these banks and/or brokerages are now effectively shorted shares as the backing for them was illegitimate instructions from the DTCC. As a result, brokerages and banks across the world are now indirectly short on Gamestop. + * The shares can be covered for these entities by the DTCC transferring the dividend shares but they cannot be properly distributed to the correct locations as the record of the appropriate holding account is unobtainable. All shares that are backed by shares sent from Gamestop->Computershare->DTCC->Brokerage are covered shorts where an allocation exists. The issue is that these cannot be tracked and covered. There is nobody to return the share to other than the incinerator. But if the DTCC has enough shares to cover all these created shorts they can hopefully just be discarded. But if enough shares are not held by the DTCC from the dividend then the brokers have created naked shorts that can never be closed and would require the brokerage to buy 3 shares for every 1 pre-split share sold or DRS’d and then have those shares discarded. + * A 7:1 split for any sold or DRS’d shares is effectively created here unless the recipients discard the shares they receive along with a short position of 3 shares for every 1 share for any participating brokerages and/or banks. + * Brokerages and banks along with governments around the world will eventually realize this and begin to panic. They have been forced to become short on a stock due to the DTCC’s misfiling as a stock split. Global governments will not want to be responsible for this. + * SHFs and the DTCC likely planned this stock split to cause the largest “too big to fail” ever where only people/entities net long on Gamestop are safe and everyone else would go underwater. Foreign governments can become very angry regarding actions like this. + +**TL;DR:** + +Any naked shorted shares were most likely assigned duplicated control numbers. This is why there was no overvote for Gamestop as their system may ignore duplicates. This is also why naked shorted shares are not on the DTCC’s books. A stock split as a dividend would put naked shorted shares on the DTCC’s books and likely trigger a short squeeze. This is an extremely difficult issue to rectify for the DTCC and would result in a 7:1 split for many shares if fixed to be a stock split as a dividend. This is also a global issue now as brokerages and banks across the world have effectively been made short or even naked short on Gamestop indirectly by the DTCC. The plan appears to be to make this issue “too big to fail” for the entire world so most countries and financial institutions share in the risk of a short squeeze. + +**The TL’DR was too long:** + +DRS’ing shares makes this an issue for brokerages and banks across the globe and soon there will be a race to close first. +$700k NW, 32 y/o, $325k W2 income, HCOL area, married with 1 kid and another planned within the next 1-2 years. + +I come from a lower middle class background. One of my earliest memories is my parents filing for bankruptcy and us having to move in with my grandparents. I was never encouraged to do well in school and never graduated from college. + +Lucked into sales and then management for a small blue collar company. I consider myself extremely fortunate to be in the position I'm in. + +Life is a grind though. I constantly find myself thinking about Exercising, Cooking, Pacticing guitar, Playing music with a band, Going out with friends, Having sex with my wife, Playing poker, Traveling, Smoking a good cigar... + +I almost never do any of these things. My life is consumed by work and taking care of our 5 m/o baby. My guitars collect dust. Meals are mostly microwaved. No friends, no travel. I dropped out of my band because I simply don't have the time. + +I just got another big promotion and my income is going to accelerate to $400k-$600k over the next 1-3 years. At the same time I'm feeling very burned out and I'm just not enjoying my life. + +My father died of a massive heart attack 1 month after his 40th birthday. He never did anything with his life aside from working to support his 5 kids. I can't help but feel I'm on a path to do the same... + +I would love to hear some ideas around: + +-Work/life balance. How do you proactively schedule in "you" time without detracting too much from work and family? + +-For those of you who have had to grind your way to success, How do you keep yourself motivated? + +-Having kids makes things really difficult. Life went from "work hard, play hard" to "work hard, work hard". At what age can you start doing things you enjoy again? + +-Is this just what family life is like as an adult? Do I just need to gut up? + +-I'm considering getting one or even two au pairs, just so I can actually spend some time doing things I enjoy. This would wipe out a huge portion of my saving rate though so... What's the point? + + +EDIT: Just woke up and I am blown away by all the comments. Thank you everyone for your insight and support. +I've seen shills doubting the 10M floor, and the only argument they give is that DFV cannot be a trillionaire, that it's too much money, that the economy, and so on. + +No DD, no research, no nothing. That's the main argument: it has never happened before. + +So what? Reality is something we make as humanity, and history is written day after day. And things happen and life goes on. Crash happens, war happens, a bloody pandemic happens, billionaires happen and trillionaires will happen. + +The same people telling you now that 10M is ridiculous thought that BTC at 60k was ridiculous when it costed pennies. + +So, don't let anyone tell you that your floor is unrealistic and stupid, don't let anyone tell you what's possible and what's not. Do your own DD and make your own decisions. I don't know how high this will go, but I know that history is full of one-time events. + +People that have changed the world have never put limits on possible outcomes, dear Apes. + +I'm ready to hold for my 10 million floor, bring it on, and I don't care what shills say. If it's not against the laws of physics, for me it's possible and realistic. It's already mathematically realistic anyway. + +👊🏻 I choose to HODL 🚀 + +EDIT: for people thinking I'm talking about rensole, of course not! He's one of the best around, and all apekind are grateful for his free work and dedication. I'm talking about the ones saying people believing in high prices are irrational and stupid, and that it's just impossible, as that's a fact because it seems they're time travelers, I guess. I've seen many these days and that's why I share this opinion, not as a DD. +After many posts asking for advice... + +Asking people for help on my numbers... + +And many hours of lurking this sub, I have finally closed on my first rental property. + +&#x200B; + +$68,000 rented out at $750. Cash flowing $250 a month. I am ECSTATIC! +I appreciate I'm not typical of this sub but I think a lot of members will sympathise. I'm completely confused where almost all the "American" financial myths come from. "I want to increase my credit score." "If the S&P 500 is great does that mean I should be investing in the FTSE 350?" "I'm adamant I need to buy an ETF, not an OEIC." etc. + +The British financial system is so boring and there is so much to read. So how are we at the stage where posters know so much about the American system (which seems equally boring!). + +I admit there is a balance. We are economically connected, "When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold." If you want to be globally diverse you will need to invest in the US. But I feel something is wrong if posters know more about Roth IRAs than the pension system in their own country. +I lost out on thousands because of their shit service. This is unacceptable, I've lost all my trust in their platform. This Monday I plan on marking a switch to a more stable investing platform. I suggest any of you who use RBC DI do the same. + +Any suggestions on trading platforms? +Hey all, +I’m currently 17 and in high school. Once I graduate, I will go to trade school. Upon completion, I will have 140k. I plan on saving 40k for myself (help with rent, bills, gas, food, etc). I also plan on investing $100k for long term, hopefully 35-40 years until retirement. I also plan on getting a job immediately out of trade school which the average salary is around 70-75k. I feel I am way ahead of my kids my age, financially wise. But at the same time, i’ve only dealt with up to $15k, not 140k. That’s why I feel it would help to have an expert. This way I show them my living situation, my bills and other expenses, my salary, etc, and can help come up with a master budgeting plan so I don’t ruin the 40k immediately out of the gates. I also want help investing. I’ve been investing (using my fathers account) since 12 years old. I know what i’m doing. I know to invest in conservative funds like VTI or VT. But again, I have never dealt with so much money and want to be extra careful. Do you think it’s a good idea to get an experts help here? +The anti-FIRE? + +https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/13/style/saving-less-money.html + +> The World’s a Mess. So They’ve Stopped Saving for Tomorrow. + +> Many adults under 35 are throwing financial caution to the wind. It’s all about saving less, spending more and pursuing passions. + +> “We’re not wired to save. We’re wired to consume. If you have an exciting vision of the future, those are the people who aggressively save for retirement. If you have an apocalyptic vision of the future, why would you save for it? Of course you wouldn’t.” +Deutsche Bank is the first major bank to forecast a US recession. "We will get a major recession," Deutsche Bank economists wrote. + +The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy. + +Thirty-eight percent of small US business owners say inflation is their biggest concern, twice as many as the second place “supply chain disruptions” (19%) and well above Covid-19 (13%) and labor shortages (13%). + +In case of recession, where should one put his money? +So long story short, I was a passenger on the back of a motorcycle when the driver hit a big landscaping rock and wrecked, almost costing me my life. I spent a great deal of time in the hospital and off of work due to the extensive amount of injuries that I suffered with. Finally after a year of insurances battling each other and even a lawyer, I am set to get at least a $100,000 check in my name. I’m only 22, renting a double, with a leased car. + +If y’all were in my situation, what would you do? I’ve been thinking of starting with any debt I have, like my car and a couple credit cards, and paying those off completely. Then using some as a down payment for a house and also investing (which I know nothing about). I just need advice because I am so lost! This is the most money I will have ever had and the amount is super intimidating... +Since the last earnings call and the most recent number of DRS'd shares everyone and their dog tries to convince the community that *every* broker will fuck you over and force close your positions in GME. + +Following this logic there will be no MOASS because brokers will liquidate GME shares at whatever low price they think is adequate. I don't say that this won't happen in *some* cases and that's why I am 90% DRS'd. But trying to 'motivate' others to DRS because '*no* broker share is safe' automatically invalidates every MOASS theory. So maybe let's try not to speak in absolutes ('every' broker; 'no' other shares are safe etc.) and get more people to DRS by pointing out the legitimate and factual risks with brokers and the benefits of DRS. + +Edit: typo +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/v2cwv7i0dl571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a0314497ec2f2be33fa6e4963c2578debac0bcd + +Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/uljellh2dl571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=69b1bc04b2df95353f08ccd90dd041153d859223 + +The Reverse repos + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zyzn29f9dl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=73d7dfef856590820243365d4070db0278802085 + +509 billion, not the ATH we've seen before but back to the levels of... well last week. + +[ made by u\/JTH1 ](https://preview.redd.it/fs1wy7andl571.png?width=8226&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ccba8adeac1adf0951be9bb358fb2a4f64b661d) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jt1fu6wwdl571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=b98063b9f316d2893ba51862d7e30e97e3a6d1b0 + +Obv still rising even though we have a "dip" thanks to u/*Badtothebone* + +&#x200B; + +Also it seems we may have broke this guy + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB\_jobcKY5Y&ab\_channel=RichIrvin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZB_jobcKY5Y&ab_channel=RichIrvin) + +&#x200B; + +https://reddit.com/link/o10ltc/video/xbx2z7hhel571/player + +# Bloomberg terminal drop! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/gufkwttlel571.png?width=1916&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0b369e53623b249ea45d46ab0f31a97b9dd0277 + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0ogwo/15062021\_gme\_bloomberg\_terminal\_information/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0ogwo/15062021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/txrhw6eoel571.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4fac22643240643f3c2e1789bcaabe75f13a5995 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ol2oxseefl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e2ba970b1edbd76733d320d74c233c22a43c53 + +# The 005 + +I've been seeing a lot of things involving the 005, but remember this dropped late last night, so give it some time, just like last time we see a lot of oh "OH NO" reactions with a data dump, but give it time and we can analyse what the document says and in what way. + +If you've offered your feedback to the 005 on their site, do know that your email is now public, there has been a thread made [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0n8li/apes_who_wrote_regarding_the_rule_005_your_email/) give it a read to make sure all your data is secure. + +the most important thing is, we can let gamgam out of the cage again + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o9y9an69fl571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=13f77ff195afd18479e355649db5b37849ed445f + +# The SEC meeting + +SEC Announces Annual Regulatory Agenda "Transparency around stock buybacks, short sale disclosure, securities-based swaps ownership, and the stock loan market" + +[https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-99](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2021-99) + +&#x200B; + +And per final I'd like to close with this, Detective u/buttfarm69 made this statement and I couldn't agree more, no matter what happens we are all individuals, no leaders no nothing. + +I like the stock + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/odqlk42bgl571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7008c557b49346040f4cae0d61754a4ed60fa0e + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kko6lrndgl571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf644c020e9c50b8a82594fddc6f587c129af408 + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8n15yn4hgl571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=4ae759ff46c04f80d70d8f8b0a5d16a0fab76f76 + +remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) + +[https://twitter.com/u\_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) + +[https://twitter.com/BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) + +(p.s. yes I'm aware that today there isn't a lot of stuff but I'm neck deep in researching stuff) + +Edit 1: + +u/Criand made a DD in [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) + +it goes over the fact that we are currently facing the same exact problems we faced in 2008 but in a much greater magnitude, aka The BIGGER short. + +Edit 2: + +[AnnihilationGod](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod) was kind enough to analyse the traffic once more! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/07uuc3aujl571.png?width=4096&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd1a98fef302ce0f588eca34c83b102327980ec3 + +Edit 3: + +Thanks to ape AndyLeeck, he found out that Citadel Luxembourg has been dissolved effective Apr/30/2021 + +source: [https://gd.lu/resa/2mng1G](https://t.co/ta7pTq0Ij6?amp=1) + +https://preview.redd.it/wm7udo27ll571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e2584d41113b847e459ed6cdd4c666000631db + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pvxnsv08ll571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f880a720b75f78e9d46c0cdd49a0a999c7fae53 + +&#x200B; + [https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-republicans-or-democrats-better-for-the-stock-market.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/are-republicans-or-democrats-better-for-the-stock-market.html) + +&#x200B; + +For investors worried about how the election will impact their portfolios over the long haul, fear not: Elections have seldom had a lasting impact on equity prices. + +President Donald Trump has warned that the stock market will crash if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the [presidential election](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/election-2020-live-results-updates-trump-biden.html). Some market experts have also raised concern about the potential for a “blue wave” if Democrats gain a majority in the Senate, win the White House and keep control of the House. + +However, history shows that stocks usually do well regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress.  + +“I think people overestimate the importance of politics for investing,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  + +### Are Republicans or Democrats better for stocks?  + +Data over the past 78 years shows that party control over either chamber has relatively little to do with long-term changes in the broad S&P 500 stock index. + +Starting in 1942, the numbers indicate that Republican and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate have had little impact on stock prices in the two years following an election.  + +The same holds true when you look at the number of party seats gained or lost in the House and Senate, against stock prices in the S&P 500 during that period.  + +The data yields similar results for the November to November cycle, which is a gauge of market sentiment to the election, as well as January to January, which shows the actual market performance of the Congress.  + +### Presidents and stocks  + +Where you start to see more of an impact is the combination of party control in both chambers of Congress.  + +Data compiled by LPL Financial shows that beginning in 1950, the average annual stock return was 17.2% under a split Congress, 13.4% when Republicans held both chambers, and 10.7% when Democrats had control. + +LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick said in a note that “markets tend to like checks and balances to make sure one party doesn’t have too much sway,” hence the stronger stock performance during a split Congress. + +But when you broaden it out even further to consider the party of the president in tandem with party control of the two chambers, the trend of a split Congress being best for stocks doesn’t always hold true.  + +Sam Stovall, CFRA chief investment strategist, looked at how the market has performed under six political scenarios: a White House and Congress all under the same party, a White House with a split Congress, and a White House and Congress hailing from two different parties. Stovall included election data going back to 1945. + +Of all the possible combinations, stocks appear to perform best when a Democrat is in the White House and the Congress is split. The second highest returns happen when a Democrat is president and Republicans control the Congress. + + + +But ultimately, Stovall said, investors should be wary of reading too much into these numbers.  + +“It’s a good example of how you can have data tell whatever story you want,” he said. “If you want to favor the Democrats, talk about the presidency. If you want to favor the Republicans, talk about House control.“ + + +Bob French, director of investment analysis at McLean Asset Management, agrees. “We can go in and slice and dice the data however we want and most of the time come up with whatever answer we want.” + +However the vote plays out Tuesday, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks the stock market is poised to take off. + +“At least 90% of \[our\] portfolio strategy would be identical under either win,” Lee said in a note on Oct. 6. In either case, Lee predicts the outcome of the election will be bullish for stocks. +I’m not sure if this goes here but I'm filing for financial aid through fasfa but one of the question was "have you ever been homeless since the day July 1, 2021" + +and yes I have been living in RV campsites and motels ever since then + +the reason why I'm not sure l +want to put that I'm homeless is because the situation I finally got myself into is amazing at this motel. + +I don't wanna lose my current situation and I'm scared that if I put I'm homeless that fasfa is either going to try and move me into a different situation or contact the motel owner and trying to get me out + +it would be better than my school trying to get me into one of their housing (no pets, roomates) because I do have a dog and I want to stay with my boyfriend. + +What would be the outcome if I state that yes I am homeless vs no I am not. I am 21 and this is a community college. +I recently paid $750 for a Vitamix blender and absolutely love it! We blend a lot and this is probably our 4th or 5th blender. This beautiful machine sits proudly on our benchtop. + +I also remember a really great night out I had with the missus before we had kids where we just went into the casino with about $100 each then just gambled, drank and ate until we ran out of money about 10 hours later. We had an absolute blast, met some fun people and enjoyed the very-hard-to-replicate thrill that is winning and losing money in an instant. Certainly don't regret that one, but also don't recommend it for obvious reasons. + +Edit: it’s awesome to see that people out there aren’t afraid to spend some of their money. While reading through this sub and some of the other finance subs on here, one can easily get caught up in trying to be frugal and even feeling guilty for spending their own money on things that make them happy. + +By all means cut spending on things that don’t matter to you, but don’t be scared to buy that robo-vacuum, or that motorbike, or that holiday or even a giant leather rhino. +I know we can all mostly agree that communism is generally not a productive economic system at least in the west but could the same be said of the soviets and the way they implemented it? Part of me thinks that maybe they implemented communism because in sole context it is actually an effective system but i am +not sure. What do you guys think? +Which country in Europe would be the best place for someone who build significant stocks portfolio and wants to enjoy live by living from dividend? Important criteria’s would be: +1. Low taxation of dividends/capital gains (or possibility of tax optimisation) +2. Low cost of living +Hi guys, + +this is my first post here. I've looked through several threads but could find what I need (or just missed it completely). Next year I will be in my 30s and I have almost 2 years old twins and I am looking for a way to have to grow my saving as me and my wife's salaries barely cover the expenses we have. Also, I would love to get out of my current job which is paying okay but I just can't stand it there anymore. Of course, with 2 small kids, I can't allow myself to just quit the job and wait for a miracle and so far I have no luck if finding another job with at least a similar salary. + +For those of you who have not heard of Bulgaria, it's one of the poorest countries in the EU, a big percentage of the population lives in poverty and barely anyone can afford to set money aside. The maternity leave here is 2 years which is great, but the second year the government pays you the minimum salary which is around 200/250 euros a month and it doesn't matter if you have one kid, twins, quadruplets. + +My wife will go back to work once the kids start kindergarten which should be around September this year and which will boost our income but not by much. + +Her salary is around 500 euros a month and mine is around 800 euros which I repeat is not considered so bad in Bulgaria. + +I started spending around 50-100 euros a month on cryptos but I see it as a very long terms investment and I just invest and hodl. + +We have some money saved before COVID but those are drying up slow and steadily. We had around 5000 euros for emergencies. One of which is the new car as the current one is slowly dying and the repair will cost more than the current value of the car. + +I hope I give you enough information and didn't overshare at the same time. + +Thanks for taking the time to read through this. + +I hope all of you are first of all happy. + +Thank you! +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q + +> Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product. +Implicit in your power as supreme potentate is that you can write any law you want, create any policy. You can appoint whomever you want in what ever position. + +Of course you are benevolent so how do you turn Venezuela around minimizing the loss of life and and maximizing your citizens' standard of living. +**TL;DR: Margin calls weren't waived for SHFs in January 2021. The only thing that was waived was a special additional charge (the ECP charge). SHFs are still at risk of getting margin called. Peterffy's fear of a domino bankruptcy had GME's price continued to increase, the continuous attacks on GME from MSM, the consistent price suppression on the stock, etc., are all further supporting indicators to the fact.** + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +SHFs Can & Will Get Margin Called + +§0: Preface + +§1: Analysis of the Congressional Report & NSCC Rules + +§2: Additional Findings From Congressional Report + +§3: Supporting Factors + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +**§0: Preface** + +There was a pretty strong FUD campaign over a week ago trying to convince Apes that SHFs will never get margin called. At first, I didn't think this post was entirely necessary, but after seeing a significant amount of Apes continue to inadvertently parrot the misinformation, genuinely believing that margin calls were waived for SHFs and that SHFs will never get [margin called](https://imgur.com/a/RKHRec0), a DD post clearing up this misconception is in order. + +For zen Apes, these FUD campaigns were futile to begin with, because nothing can shake them from diamond handing GME. + +https://i.redd.it/5z0777pfgq991.gif + +As for newer Apes, or Apes that might've simply gotten caught off guard by the FUD campaign, this post will bring clarity to the reality of the situation. + +Firstly, I want to point out that these types of misinformation sprees are pretty common. Once every few months you'll have some big FUD campaign try to convince Apes that MOASS is over. + +In August, 2021, there was the "CFTC stopped MOASS" FUD, which Criand and I [had to clear up](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pfklqo/i_want_to_shut_down_any_fud_before_it_arises_from/) the confusion and explain that this wasn't the case. + +In April this year, we had the "NSCC-003 will prevent MOASS" FUD, which I [addressed](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u8ov3g/srnscc2022003_this_proposal_will_not_prevent/), and explained that this wasn't going to stop MOASS. + +And in between all of those FUD campaigns, you had smaller pieces of misinformation being spread, such as the timeline for the implementation of the Consolidated Audit Trail System (CATS), and the implications of said implementation, which I [addressed last year](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pj57nj/consolidated_audit_trail_system_cats_officially/). + +But, for the most part, these "MOASS is cancelled" FUD campaigns tend to happen periodically, so maybe a few months from now there will be another one. Whatever excuse anyone tries to come up with as to why "SHFs can't be beaten", etc., just remember that we have a plethora of DD that demonstrates the opposite is the case, so any post that tries to end with something along the lines of "MOASS is cancelled" or "SHFs are too powerful for Apes to stop", needs to be treated like someone just claimed they created a perpetual motion machine which would violate Newton's 2nd law of thermodynamics. In other words, there's likely misinformation being spread, and those posts need to be taken with heavy scrutiny. + +With that out of the way, let's get into the Congressional Report that has been referred to as "proof that margin calls were waived for SHFs". + +**§1: Analysis of the Congressional Report & NSCC Rules** + +[The U.S House Committee on Financial Services "Game Stopped" Report](https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/6.22_hfsc_gs.report_hmsmeetbp.irm.nlrf.pdf) + +I went ahead and read the entire 138 page Congressional Report. For good measure, I also re-read the [SEC Report](https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf) on GME from last year, in addition to other regulatory documents to ensure I had the facts straight; hence, that FUD campaign that was pushed hard over a week ago doesn't work on me. + +Let's start with how margin calculations work. + +Clearing/regulatory agencies generally have core requirements for members when it comes to putting up margin. These are normally what we talk about in this sub when we talk about a SHF getting margin called. If a firm's liabilities exceed the margin they have available, they get a margin call (i.e. firm's margin requirements > margin ⇒ firm gets margin called). + +Here's how margin requirements are generally assessed: + +"The total margin requirement for an account is composed of two parts: (a) the Net Asset Value calculation or mark- to market component, which is the cost to liquidate a position at current market prices; and, (b) the risk component, which provides a cushion to cover two-day market risk,"- pg. 52 of the [OCC Framework for Financial Market Infrastructures](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/4664dece-7172-42a5-8f55-5982f358b696/pfmi-disclosures.pdf;). + +These core margin requirements come primarily from: + +(1) mark-to-market charges. + +(2) Value-at-risk charges. + +Mark-to-market charge: assesses unrealized losses associated with a firm's positions. + +Value-at-risk charge: assesses volatility and risk associated with a firm's positions. + +Again, this is what I talk about when I talk about a SHF getting margin called, and virtually all Apes on this sub also mean when they discuss SHFs getting margin called, whether or not they understand the terminology with margin reqs. + +Well, on top of these "core" margin requirements, there can be additional requirements added \[which you can find out about in the DTCC's "[National Securities Clearing Corporation Rules & Procedures](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rules/nscc_rules.pdf)"\], such as the backtesting charge, MLA charge, and intraday charges (on top of the regular charges), such as intraday mark-to-market charges. These charges don't get waived when implemented, and the NSCC can lower the threshold required for implementation to accelerate the collection of these charges if the NSCC deems it necessary to mitigate their risk. + +And finally, on top of all this, the NSCC has, what the SEC Report as well as the Congressional Report describe as a **special additional charge**, the Excessive Capital Premium charge. + +Excess Capital Premium Charge (ECP): This special additional charge gets assessed when a member firm’s “core” margin requirement \[i.e. the mark-to-market or Value-at-Risk margin requirement\] exceeds its excess net capital. It's a penalty applied to incentivize firms to maintain an adequate capital cushion. + +There's another special additional charge, which is the Bank Holiday Charge. + +Bank Holiday Charge: Special additional charge when equities market is open for trading but there's a Fed observed holiday and banks are closed. The special additional charge is to cover any potential exposure that the holiday could cause to them. + +The Bank Holiday Charge doesn't apply to us, so we only need to focus on the ECP charge. + +Special additional charges can get waived. Core margin requirements cannot. + +If the special additional ECP charge gets imposed, it gets considered as a collateral requirement, which is why you read that the DTCC waived $9.7 billion of collateral deposit requirements on January 28, 2021. Because this Excess Capital Premium charge was the only thing that got waived. + +Page 101 of the Congressional Report: + +"Six member firms were assessed an Excess Capital Premium charge that morning, aggregating approximately $9.7 billion. According to NSCC rules, each firm would have been required to pay these **Excess Capital Premium charges** as part of its daily clearing fund requirements by 10 a.m." + +What's the point of these excess capital premium charges? + +According to page 10 of the Congressional Report, they're used to incentivize firms to maintain an adequate capital cushion, and they help deter firms from accumulating excessive risk. + +For example, this is like if you rent an apartment, and the landlord said "in addition to the security deposits you've given us, we also want to add a special additional charge to encourage you to make all your payments on time. This special charge might increase exponentially depending on how risky we consider you to be." Whether or not this special charge were to get waived, your "core" deposit requirements need to still get fulfilled regardless. + +Firms commonly don't even calculate ECP charges (e.g. TDA & Charles Schwab don't model for ECP charges—see page 99), and Robinhood was one of those firms. + +On page 20, we see that Robinhood's Head of Data Science said the ECP charge was a "black box" to him. + +On page 52, we see that "Robinhood calculated that of the $1.3 billion Value-at-Risk charge, approximately $850 million was attributable to αmc and approximately $250 million was attributable to GME." However, Robinhood didn't calculate the ECP charge. + +We can find further confirmation that RH was neither aware of the special additional ECP charge, nor the fact that the NSCC put them on Enhanced Surveillance (the info wasn't relayed to them). + +Page 20, paragraphs 2& 4: + +"The NSCC assessed a $3.7 billion collateral charge to Robinhood on January 28, 2021, based on the risk in Robinhood’s uncleared portfolio relative to the company’s capitalization. This charge, which ultimately prompted Robinhood’s trading restrictions, had several components. The two largest components were the Value-at-Risk charge, which totaled $1.3 billion, and the Excess Capital Premium charge, which totaled $2.2 billion. During interviews with Committee staff, Robinhood officials confirmed that the company was only modeling for its potential Value-at-Risk charge for the week of January 25, 2021. In other words, Robinhood had no visibility into the possibility of, much less the precise level of, Excess Premium Capital charges that it could be required to pay during the Meme Stock Market Event." + +[RH Executives Discussing the NSCC ECP Charges \[page 35\]](https://preview.redd.it/cql0g8zigq991.png?width=529&format=png&auto=webp&s=047a5053deb770ca3e6b176306d7566e4b67f499) + +The ECP charge, being a special additional charge, is also calculated uniquely. If we return to page 10 of the Congressional Report, we'll find that "Excess Capital Premium charges rise exponentially the less capitalized a broker is relative to how risky its uncleared portfolio is." + +So, this is a special additional charge which can rise exponentially depending on how risky the firm is considered by the NSCC, so it's no wonder why this special charge has gotten waived many times in the past, because we again see on pages 10 and 11 that the Committee's investigation revealed that the NSCC has regularly waived ECP charges in the two years before the "Meme Stock Market Event, and that "the NSCC often waives these charges" (pg. 11). + +Also, again in page 104: "The NSCC regularly waives Excess Capital Premium charges on its member firms and, in particular, for certain member firms that tend to be repeat offenders in attracting this charge." + +This isn't new. These ECP charges are just there to disincentivize firms from becoming engaged in too-risky behavior, but ultimately the ECP charges get waived, which ends up being more of a moral hazard instead. Regardless, the ECP charge was always a special additional charge, NOT a "core" margin requirement. I, myself, never even considered an ECP charge when I was thinking of SHFs getting margin called. + +The only thing that got waived was the ECP charge, which was the special additional charge. The "core" margin requirements were upheld. + +Page 61: + +"According to DTCC officials, Gretchen Howard \[RH COO\] also asked the DTCC if Robinhood could negotiate its Value-at-Risk charge down to a lower amount, which DTCC officials refused." + +Robinhood was actually very pushy with the DTCC to get the "core" margin requirements reduced, but the DTCC didn't budge. + +Page 69: + +"Robinhood requested a reduction in its Value-at-Risk charge for that day. DTCC officials indicated that a reduction in the Value-at-Risk charge was not available." \[...\] "Robinhood again requesting a reduction of its Value-at-Risk charge for the day. DTCC officials once again indicated to Robinhood that a **reduction in the Value-at-Risk charge was neither available nor permitted by the publicly available NSCC rules**." + +So, no, Robinhood could not get the "core" margin requirements waived. The only thing that got waived was the special additional charge, the ECP charge, which means nothing, because that was just an extra charge on top of the pre-existing "core" margin reqs. We can also see on page 97 that this wasn't the first time Robinhood's ECP charge got waived. + +"The DTCC also waived the Excess Capital Premium charge Robinhood received in March 2020,"-pg. 97. + +Waivers/modifications of ECP charges are more common in periods of acute volatility (e.g. the coronavirus crash of 2020). + +[pg. 105 of the Congressional Report](https://preview.redd.it/z2acq7lkgq991.png?width=629&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d36a3a8501301c7c20353896592895a45d5ffbf) + +I will repeat again, the ECP charge is not a "core" margin requirement, but a special additional charge. + +Page 107 further elaborates on the reason this special additional charge is given: + +**"As NSCC officials explained to Committee staff, part of the purpose of the Excess Capital Premium charge is to encourage member firms to maintain reasonable excess capital buffers. In other words, by maintaining an excess capital buffer, individual firms will avoid the application of the Excess Capital Premium charge as a penalty."** + +Also, note page 69: + +"The consequences when a broker-dealer defaults can be severe for the firm, its customers, other clearing firm members, and the stock market." + +Had the ECP charge not gotten waive, it still wouldn't have made a difference. It didn't matter. The only firm that would've defaulted would've been Robinhood, and that would've been bad for ALL customers of Robinhood at the time. We didn't really know about DRS back then, so we all used broker-dealers. The majority of us (myself included) used Robinhood, so them not defaulting back then actually wasn't actually so bad, especially if they had IOUs instead of shares (which I'm most certain they did and still do). + +So, here's what I see happening in the future right before short positions start closing and MOASS initiates: + +GME passes critical margin levels. We have periods of extreme volatility in the market, several halts, but GME is still too high to the point where margin calls are being made (mark-to-market & Value-at-Risk margin reqs not being fulfilled). The DTCC will waive the special additional charge, the ECP charge, like last time, but the "core" margin requirements are still upheld, like they've always been. SHFs cannot meet the "core" margin requirements, and default, undergoing liquidation process, similarly to the Lehman Brothers in September, 2008. DTCC computers kick in and start buying all the shares (you know the rest). + +I hope this helps Apes reading this understand that what took place was not margin calls being waived, but a special additional charge. + +**§2: Additional Findings From Congressional Report** + +There were other things I discovered in the Congressional Report that I felt like sharing here as well. + +In pages 26-28 of the Congressional Report, they briefly discuss how Elon Musk's tweet spiked volume in GME after he tweeted "Gamestonk!!" on January 26, 2021. + +[pg. 28 of the Congressional Report](https://preview.redd.it/7n8nwb2mgq991.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=887fdebe14cfa095d6b95e6011befac813811334) + +This is hard proof that billionaires and wealthy public figures showing support DO have a big influence on GME. SHFs likely noticed this and tried to shut down support from these public figures on GME after they regained control of the stock on February 2021, as I described in my DD [Are Billionaires (or Wealthy Public Figures) Being Threatened Away From Publicly Supporting GME?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u4jwqy/are_billionaires_or_wealthy_public_figures_being/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). + +People like Cuban or Musk openly showing support to GME are a catalyst, as well as a risk to SHFs' short positions, which is most likely why they called Pulte to try to convince him to stay away from GME, telling him ominous things like "just looking out for you." + +It also perturbs me that there were major campaigns against Pulte (et al.) for no reason, too many Apes attacking him or being hostile towards him in this sub, trying to run him off even though he did absolutely nothing against the Ape community whatsoever. No offense, but it's like some people here are either too ignorant to understand that it's a good thing for a massive public figure with millions of followers to spread awareness on GME (as long as they are treating the community with respect, and not hurting the community in any way), or most of those people attacking Pulte were planted there to try to discourage him, or anyone with public influence, from supporting GME. + +Dr. Trimbath was another that this happened to. It's almost like anyone with a name and public influence gets pushed away and discouraged from helping the community: + +https://preview.redd.it/xlronblngq991.png?width=437&format=png&auto=webp&s=d94eaf1ebde877f8a3f66097a02ae150f4abf9a4 + +Maybe she got hostile DM's from fake Apes from SuperStonk, but I digress. + +There was another piece of unrelated news I have from the Congressional Report. + +Page 131: + +Proposed legislation H.R. 4619, to amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to prohibit trading ahead by market makers, and for other purposes: + +Summary: "This bill would statutorily prohibit market makers from “trading ahead”; require the CEO of each market maker to annually certify that the CEO has performed reasonable due diligence during the reporting period to ensure the market maker has not traded ahead; and would impose personal liability on any associated person of a market maker who knowingly and willfully trades ahead, directs another associated person to 132 trade ahead, or is personally unjustly enriched by trading ahead. The bill requires the SEC to issue rules carrying out the legislation within 90 days." + +I'd consider this to be a good piece of news to come out of the Congressional Report. Even though this proposed legislation wouldn't be a catalyst for MOASS, it's a step in the right direction for market fairness. + +**§3: Supporting Factors** + +Going back to my main point of how SHFs can & will get margin called, there are many other factors in addition to the Congressional Report that indicate they are most definitely still slated to be margin called. + +For one, if SHFs were never capable of getting margin called, Melvin and Archegos would've never blown up. As a matter of fact, the Lehman Brothers, MF Global, Bear Stearns, etc., would've never needed to get liquidated to begin with. I mean, the DTCC completely waiving the "core" margin requirements would've lessened the extent of the 2008 crash, so why not do it? Because that's not how it works. Again, page 69 of the Congressional Report states that waiving the "core" margin requirements is not even permitted by the publicly available NSCC rules. + +IBKR Chair Thomas Peterffy stated in an interview after the January 2021 run up that he was afraid of a massive wave of bankruptcies (a domino bankruptcy) had GME's price continued to climb. + +https://reddit.com/link/vrwfjt/video/h51kmflugq991/player + +Also, keep in mind that he indicates at the end that the short squeeze didn't even happen, which corroborates the SEC Report stating that the January 2021 run up was due to FOMO and not a short/gamma squeeze. Shorts didn't close, and SHFs are still very much capable of getting margin called, which is why MSM has been consistently trying to get Apes to sell GME. Even today, they are very hard with their FUD campaigns on social media, the news, etc. They want you to think it's over and sell, because they need you to sell as soon as possible. They can't hold down the price indefinitely, especially when they're trapped in a price suppression quandary. + +I've discussed this in §1 of my [Burning Cash](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v0zrni/burning_cash/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) DD: + +"Do note that as time goes on, SHFs' margin decreases. This is because they continue to burn cash every week that goes by. Cost to borrow, their various ways of price suppression, can-kicking, increased liabilities, loss of funds from client withdrawals, etc., all costs them a significant amount of money every week. Keeping the price suppressed for this long is unsustainable and constrains their options. It's fun for us because SHFs give us a free 99.9999% discount on GameStop shares, and they have to pay for it all, but for them, it's pure agony. + +So, it's safe to say that since their margins have been decreasing, their critical margin levels (where they'd get margin called) would, consequently, decrease as well. This is visibly seen on GME's chart." + +Here's a graph illustrating their price suppression quandary: + +https://preview.redd.it/6aa3d02qgq991.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=67e3f71b4584bc9506984f3c88593f7ff0eab319 + +This is a general model I created, which isn't exactly precise, but you get the idea. Any price movement passing critical margin levels (the red line), puts SHFs in a very stressed spot. They'd feel a lot of volatility and pressure here with their portfolios, and would be at high risk of getting margin called. Right now, even though passing critical margin levels would technically take GME passing $190 or so, I'd go for a solid conservative estimate and say that I'm almost certain that SHFs would get margin called at $250, as that would take into account any leeway SHFs might find in securing any additional collateral, whether from credit lines or elsewhere. In other words, it would be fair play at $190 right now, they could get margin called, but they'd definitely get margin called at $250 at this time. + +The "core" margin requirements are still on the table, regardless of the special additional ECP charge. SHFs are losing margin (they're burning through their cash trying keep the price down), and so, over time, they will need GME to continue dropping to survive. + +However, we also have the critical float lock level, which we'd reach if GME goes below $40. If you've noticed why SHFs have never taken GME to $40 for over a year, it's because times are much more different than before. Since June 2021, GameStop has over $1 billion cash on hand as well as virtually no debt. This is a company that cannot be cellar boxed; it's literally impossible for GameStop to go bankrupt. GME can't even hit pre-January 2021 numbers, because at that point, GameStop technically would have enough cash on hand to buy back the rest of the float themselves and kickstart MOASS. RC could do the same at that point. We also don't know what other big names might seize the opportunity to come in and help lock the float as well within the critical float lock level. + +Furthermore, DRS rates from Apes would increase exponentially. We have a solid DRS rate right now with the price at $120. At a price of sub-$40, I'd expect DRS rates to 3x, if not 4x, because of the extremely attractive price it'd be at, which would bring a lot more investors as well as capital. If GME were to be at sub-$40 right now, we'd lock the float within a few months (if it doesn't already get locked by GameStop or RC by then). + +Ergo, the walls are closing in on them. As critical margin levels get lower and lower, the price needs to keep dropping, but they can't have it drop to the critical float lock level, lest they accelerate their demise. If SHFs were never capable of getting margin called, why not stop wasting money suppressing the price for a bit and let natural price discovery take GME to, say, $5,000? That way, the float will never get locked because it's too expensive for Apes to lock, and SHFs never have to close their positions anyway, because they'll never get margin called. So, they can continue hiding their losses via swaps, keep their balance sheets nice and clean, and call it a win...right? Wrong. Because SHFs have always been at risk of getting margin called and liquidated. If they ever get to the point where their "core" margin requirements cannot be fulfilled, they will get liquidated. It doesn't matter whether the special additional charge (ECP charge) gets waived. They're still obligated to fulfill their "core" margin requirements, lest they end up like Lehman in 2008. + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Additional Citations: + +DTCC, *National Securities Clearing Corporation Rules & Procedures*. 30 June 2022, [https://www.dtcc.com/\~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rules/nscc\_rules.pdf](https://www.dtcc.com/~/media/Files/Downloads/legal/rules/nscc_rules.pdf). + +OCC. *The Options Clearing Corporation Disclosure Framework for Financial Market Infrastructures*. 11 Apr. 2022, [https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/4664dece-7172-42a5-8f55-5982f358b696/pfmi-disclosures.pdf](https://www.theocc.com/getmedia/4664dece-7172-42a5-8f55-5982f358b696/pfmi-disclosures.pdf). + +Sec.gov. 2021. *Staff Report on Equity and Options Market Structure Conditions in Early 2021*, 14 Oct. 2021, [https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/files/staff-report-equity-options-market-struction-conditions-early-2021.pdf) + +U.S House Committee on Financial Services, *GAME STOPPED: How the Meme Stock Market Event Exposed Troubling Business Practices, Inadequate Risk Management, and the Need for Regulatory and Legislative Reform*, (June 24, 2022), [https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/6.22\_hfsc\_gs.report\_hmsmeetbp.irm.nlrf.pdf](https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/6.22_hfsc_gs.report_hmsmeetbp.irm.nlrf.pdf) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ +**Update** + +TL:DR + +Ken Griffin is spending lots of money on a guy to become governor who helps support his criminal enterprise and his friends especially this year because they are gonna be fucked soon. Ken has a history of not caring what party they are from as long as he can keep making money with nobody bothering him. + +TL:DA + +Ken is fuk but need guy to be in charge of state to try and make fuk go away but not gonna work because we gain wrinkle. + +Definition of a Front Company + +“This is a term used for an entity, be it an individual or group or organization used to inhibit the identification of an owner or member of another company or organization. In legal proceedings, it is often identified as a cover used to conceal illegal activities. It can be a subsidiary or shell company of a larger company. It is almost always used to hide another company or individual from liability, scrutiny, or negative press.” + +https://thelawdictionary.org/front-company/ + +He is throwing a lot into this. + +“Billionaire Ken Griffin announced Monday that he is donating $20 million to Republican Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin's campaign for governor.” + +It’s okay guys, nothing to worry about . + +“While $20 million may seem like a lot, Griffin's donation is an equivalent portion of his overall net worth as a typical American household donating $88 to a candidate.” + +Funny enough they didn’t bother doing a comparison with his other donations that included stopping a plan to increase taxes on the rich. + +“Griffin has been a financial driving force for conservative politics in Illinois in recent years. State records show that Griffin donated $36 million to former Gov. Rauner's campaigns as well as $53.75 million to the "Coalition To Stop The Proposed Tax Hike Amendment." That organization aimed at defeating a proposed 2020 constitutional amendment to allow the state to institute a marginal income tax structure, like the federal government. The measure was ultimately rejected by voters.” + +https://www.sj-r.com/story/news/politics/state/2022/02/14/ken-griffin-gives-20-million-richard-irvins-illinois-governor-bid/6783073001/ + + +““Richard understands the importance of making business people know that he understands the joint prosperity that comes with a successful business community,” Griffin said in an interview published in February by the Better Government Association. He likened Irvin to Richard M. Daley, Chicago’s Democratic mayor from 1989 to 2011, who was supported by the city’s traditionally Republican business community. + +“The mayor made clear that he had my back, that I could be comfortable making the investment in infrastructure, in talent, and in building Citadel,” Griffin said of Daley in that interview. “I know with Richard Irvin I’m going to have that feeling again.” + +https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/why-ken-griffin-picked-richard-irvin-illinois-governor + + +““Conspiracy theories aside, Ken’s support for Richard Irvin is solely based on the belief that Mayor Irvin is the best candidate to tackle the severe problems facing Illinois,” a Citadel spokesperson told Bloomberg.” +Sure it is. + +Here is basically what Irvin did + +“Irvin heavily backed Scientel’s effort to build a controversial communications tower reportedly used for high frequency trading over the objections of a competitor and members of Aurora City Council. Critics say Irvin strong-armed aldermen to back the Scientel tower. The council eventually reversed a previous vote and allowed Scientel’s tower to be built.” +https://news.wttw.com/2022/04/21/ken-griffin-s-trading-firm-tied-company-aided-richard-irvin-report + + + + +The CEO on Scientel is a reportedly a friend of Irvin and some time after the case got settled this happened. + +“Its chief executive officer, Nelson Santos, is a friend, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. In June 2019, the mayor, a Scientel executive and several other people flew to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, on a private plane, according to the flight manifest. + +Scientel, Santos and others associated with the company have donated at least $135,500 to Irvin and a political fund run by his former campaign manager, WTTW, the Chicago Public Broadcasting Service channel, reported in March. Many of the donations predate Irvin’s run for governor, state records show. Scientel, meantime, has received millions of dollars’ worth of contracts from Irvin’s city, according to WTTW.” + +https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/why-ken-griffin-picked-richard-irvin-illinois-governor + +Article showing that the case was settled in May 2019 +https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/cyrusone-and-scientel-settle-court-case-over-high-frequency-trading-tower/ + +Also this candidate for governor divorced his wife just before announcing his run for governor and this story comes out . She also had donated to his campaign too. + +https://news.wttw.com/2022/04/05/richard-irvin-s-ex-wife-hired-development-firm-receiving-millions-aurora-city-incentives + +“The ex-wife of Aurora Mayor and GOP gubernatorial candidate Richard Irvin works with a development team that stands to receive up to $15 million in Aurora city incentives, with the potential for millions more. + +Crystal Rollins is listed as director of business development and strategy for JTE Real Estate Services, which says on its website it does construction management, property acquisition and development, and property management for the $128 million redevelopment of the city’s long-vacant former Copley Hospital. JTE is part of a group of companies called Fox Valley Developers that came together to land the redevelopment deal. + +JTE is run by Irvin’s former mayoral campaign treasurer Michael Poulakidas. Through a spokesperson, Poulakidas said Rollins joined the company in a full-time position in mid-March and “has had no role in our Aurora-based projects.” + +All the projects currently listed on JTE’s website are Aurora-based.” + +Real convenient for Griffin to have a guy who supports not only High Frequency Trading but also has a connection to real estate in an area frequented by his cartel. + +More on Scientel and Citadel connection. + +“After the WTTW News report on the relationship between Scientel and Irvin – and industry rumors reported by Bloomberg that Scientel and Citadel worked together – a Citadel spokesperson told WTTW News the company did not use Scientel’s tower. + +But in Thursday’s story, Bloomberg reports that Scientel has placed communications equipment on another company’s nearby structure – and cites someone with direct knowledge of the deal who said Scientel’s antenna was only used by Griffin’s firm.” + +https://news.wttw.com/2022/04/21/ken-griffin-s-trading-firm-tied-company-aided-richard-irvin-report + + +A quote from conversations between people at the companies + +“Scientel isn’t part of Citadel, but competitors have suspected for years that they work together. + +Those inklings are borne out by an email between the two. Shortly after Scientel bought the land in Aurora in 2016, two of its executives received an email from a person they were working with at Citadel Securities. The network they’d built together was beating the competition, the sender wrote, and a Citadel boss was impressed. + +“We absolutely can’t f*ck this up,” the email from Citadel Securities reads. The goal for Griffin’s firm was to “position ourselves to build a lot more.”” + +And another lie to the pile for Ken +“Citadel Securities, in a statement, said it “has not had any engagement with Richard Irvin on any aspect of its business.” + +https://www.chicagobusiness.com/government/why-ken-griffin-picked-richard-irvin-illinois-governor + +More information on the use of the tower that implies others as well in on Citadel’s scheme. +“When asked in a written question if it was accurate that Citadel Securities was utilizing Scientel’s tower for high frequency trading, Santos wrote back, “that is not accurate,” going on to say that the company does not disclose all of the tower’s uses. Santos would not return follow up calls asking him to clarify his answers. + +CyrusOne’s tower is reportedly used by large trading firms like DRW Holdings, Jump Trading LLC and Virtu Financial.” +https://news.wttw.com/2022/03/28/aurora-company-donated-big-richard-irvin-s-mayoral-campaign-received-millions-city + +Since Virtu Fiancial has been covered before here I will give some background on the other two for anyone who wants to dig more into these. + +Jump Trading + +“Jump Trading was founded in 1999 by two former pit traders, Paul Gurinas and Bill Disomma, who met in the Deutsche Mark pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). While the firm got its start in the open outcry pits, Jump Trading does most of its trading electronically” + +Interesting events in the company history + +“Following the 2010 flash crash, Disomma, Gurinas, and COO Matt Schrecengost met with CFTC chairman Gary Gensler to discuss the definition of spoofing as a disruptive trade practice as well as transparency and access to SEFs. This meeting contributed to regulatory efforts to implement new market rules stemming from the Dodd-Frank Act. + +In April 2014, Jump was one of six high-speed trading firms subpoenaed by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman regarding their trading strategies, as well as the special arrangements they may have with exchanges and dark pools. + +In May 2018, Jump was fined $250,000 by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) due to a malfunction in one of its trading algorithms leading to the accidental accumulation of a short position worth hundreds of millions of dollars.” + + +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jump_Trading + + +Interesting thing they started to plan that got reported last August +“Jump Trading Group, one of the world’s largest high-frequency trading firms, will launch a unit that executes stock orders for individual investors, a business that has grown more lucrative for electronic traders as meme-stock mania has fueled a surge in U.S. retail volumes. + +Executives at Jump told The Wall Street Journal that the firm is setting up a so-called retail wholesaler business. Wholesalers fill buy and sell orders for the customers of online brokerages such as Robinhood Markets Inc. HOOD -2.82% and TD Ameritrade.” + +https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-speed-trading-firm-jump-to-execute-retail-investors-stock-trades-11628760601 + +DRW Holdings + +“DRW was founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, an options trader at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and was named after his initials: DRW. The firm utilizes a variety of different strategies, including high-frequency trading, and was a notable subject in Michael Lewis's 2014 book Flash Boys, which describes how several trading firms compete with each other to purchase and establish infrastructure that allows trading advantages at the sub-nanosecond level (latency arbitrage). + +The firm has been the subject of at least one lawsuit by financial regulators. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, sued Wilson in November 2013 for alleged market manipulation in interest-rate swap futures during 2010 and 2011.The case was dismissed in December 2018 after the court found no evidence of market manipulation by DRW. + +DRW has engaged in the acquisition of several other trading firms and asset portfolios. In 2008, during the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers, DRW purchased Lehman's foreign exchange, interest-rate derivatives, and agricultural derivatives portfolios in a fire sale auction.” + + + +Here is history of this CME Building that I have adapted from a comment I did in a [another post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sgaacz/how_would_we_know_if_citadel_was_no_longer_the/huvm5cx/?context=3). Please note I am censoring a link because the first time I posted the original comment it got removed by the automod and I had to message the subreddit mods to get it unbanned. Just check out the comment there to check out the source. + + + +So there's a documentary called ["Wall Street Code"](https://youtu.be/kFQJNeQDDHA?t=1077) and they showed the high frequency trading facilities for the CME(Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in Aurora Illinois that citadel is a part of. + +In a documentary called ["Flash Crash"](https://youtu.be/aq1Ln1UCoEU?t=648) by the makers of "Wall Street Code" they go over how these exchanges have back ups and back ups for the back ups. + +Found this regarding CME and Citadel that I found interesting considering the timing around the market crash in 2008. +https://www.cmegroup.com/media-room/press-releases/2008/10/07/cme_group_and_citadeltolaunchthefirstintegratedcreditdefaultswap.html + +"As a fully integrated trading and clearing solution, the joint venture will provide the following benefits to market participants: + +-- Enhanced liquidity through standardized contracts with fixed coupons for all the leading CDS indices and their underlying single-name components, with OTC market conventions, including credit event procedures; + +-- CME Group's well-established clearing, settlement and risk management capabilities with Citadel's state-of-the-art technology for price discovery, matching engine, and risk management analytics; + +-- Facilities to convert existing bilateral trades to standardized contracts and straight through processing into CME Clearing, reducing bilateral credit risks, outstanding notional balances and capital requirements while providing more flexibility for trading in and out of existing positions..." + + + There’s a history of acquisition with that[ CME building in Aurora to CyrusOne](http://investor.cmegroup.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cme-group-announces-agreement-sell-aurora-ill-data-center). + +Excerpt on the deal + +“As part of the sale, CME Group will enter into a 15-year lease for data center space and will continue to operate its electronic trading platform, CME Globex, from the data center and will offer co-location services there. CME Group will have the ability to expand co-location services within the leased space going forward. The agreement also outlines the ways in which CyrusOne and CME Group will enhance the range of services available to their mutual customers through connectivity, hosting and data offerings” + + CyrusOne(CONE) got bought out and taken private by [KKR&CO &Global Infrastructure Partners on November 15 2021](https://www.reuters.com/business/kkr-global-infrastructure-partners-buy-cyrusone-15-bln-deal-2021-11-15/) + +And for those wondering when Ryan Cohen tweeted the Cone image on February 24 [this](https://investor.cyrusone.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cyrusone-brings-ibm-public-cloud-connectivity-london-i-data) had occurred with CyrusOne on that day but if anybody else finds anything related to it please let me know. + +From the article I linked +“LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2020-- CyrusOne Inc. (NASDAQ:CONE), a premier global data center real estate investment trust (REIT), today announced the introduction of IBM Cloud Direct Link to its London I data center facility in the U.K., near Slough. This news follows existing deployments in the US and Germany, where customers are already benefiting from dedicated, secure, reliable and low latency network connections to the IBM public cloud, often as part of hybrid strategies integrating seamlessly with their own IT infrastructure.” + +So anyway [I found this chart](https://cheaperthanguru.com/portfolio/ken-griffin/KKR/transactions) by Kenneth Griffin with history with the stock ticker KKR. Which shows what looks a like a 7 million pump and dump in 2019. + +This was also filed September 1 2021 for what seems like acquisition of over 7 million shares so could another one happen to it in the future?. +https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1423053/000110465921115065/tm2127490d1_sc13g.htm + +Maybe I’m too smooth brained but if anybody has anything to add on this also please do. + +Henry Kravis and Kenneth Griffin have known each other for years both attending [art galleries](https://observer.com/2015/02/billionaire-hedge-fund-ceo-ken-griffin-donates-10-million-to-the-mca-chicago/) and [major conference before the lockdown](https://www.seo-usa.org/news/seoaicon2020/) . They are also [neighbors in the Hamptons in an area called Meadow Lane](https://nypost.com/2021/10/07/inside-the-billionaire-battle-for-real-estate-s*pr*m*cy-on-meadow-lane/). They have even seen with [Oprah at events](https://www.advisorhub.com/oprah-charms-wall-street-power-lunch-kravis-black/) + + +“Winfrey will get more time with business leaders in May, when she chairs the Robin Hood Foundation benefit, a gathering of about 4,000 people from top banks, hedge funds and Fortune 500 companies. Winfrey attended the event last year, sitting with Kravis and Ken Griffin.” + +[Skipping through this rigged Uno game ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_f2AEiHY8w) he mentions Kravis at 4:58 by referring to him as “a legend in the industry” . + +Would like to point out that Kenneth talks about what he learned after the 2008 financial crisis starting at 1:44. + + “If you’re gonna run a large balance sheet you either have very long term funding or you need to have access to the FED” + +Kenneth Griffin hired Ben Bernanke as an advisor in 2015 and in a quote said that “ Bernanke's "insights on monetary policy and the capital markets will be extremely valuable to our team and to our investors." + +https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-bernanke-citadel-0417-biz-20150416-story.html + + +As for if Scientel Solutions and Boston Consulting Group have any connections all I could find so far was that they are a part of the [Dallas Regional Chamber](https://www.dallaschamber.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/DRC-TopInvestors.pdf) + +[Interesting find from wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dallas_Regional_Chamber). + +“Recent notable speakers before the Dallas Regional Chamber include Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke,” + +Thanks for reading and please note I may update this with more information if needed. Please check out all the links I think they are worth reading and let me know if I missed something or my smooth brain got wrong. + +**Update** + +Looks like this Nelson Santos dude is a part of an organization called YPO(Young Presidents' Organization) which comes off like some non profit mentorship growth thing but personally looks like some sort of network to share inside information on companies. [This is a topic I had touched upon before](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u3qm9z/kenny_admitting_to_using_bcg_to_spy_on_other/i4r2wi7/) in this comment for those curious. + +**Update** + +[Might as well post my other DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/u56jxl/boston_consulting_groupbcg_promoting_blackrocks/) on what I found connecting Boston Consulting Group and Blackrock.The DD mainly deals with the "Aladdin" software used by multiple firms but also includes the links from that previous comment involving a mentorship program called "America needs you" . + +[Charles R. Schwab is listed as a notable member on their wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Presidents'_Organization) + + + +[YPO sounds like a cult for CFO's](https://www.ypo.org/what-is-ypo/) + +"We are the global leadership community of chief executives driven by the shared belief that the world needs better leaders. We come together in YPO to become better leaders and better people. Through YPO, we are inspired and supported to make a difference in the lives, businesses and the world we impact." + +[Seriously is this normal requirements to join an organization where you have to disclose financials off the bat?](https://www.ypo.org/membership-requirements/) + +A Managing Director and Senior Partner at BCG named Michel Frédeau gave a speech at their conference. +https://www.ypo.org/2020/01/trust-vulnerability-sustainability-and-inclusion-whats-on-todays-ceo-mind/ + +Looked for a Blackrock connection and [this was the first article](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenibaraki/2021/08/05/ypo-giin-partnership---nearly-500-trillion-global-wealth-prioritizing-impact-in-2021/?sh=7392dd2f1fce) on them from last August. + +"Moreover, CEOs are working on getting added information to make better informed decisions." + +Sounds like an innocent way to say insider trading to me but okay. +But wait there's more from that article + +"YPO is interesting since it’s a highly vetted organization of CEOs. There are more than 30,0000 chief executives across 142 countries with their companies producing $9 Trillion in annual earnings (ranking 3rd if measured across countries in GDP)." + +Very interesting indeed. + +**Update** 2 + +Found 2 people from Blackrock associated with this organization YPO organization but I worry they might get doxxed so I wont post their info for now. + +YPO Pritzker Connection + +Look at that [Robert Alan 'Bob' Pritzker was a part of YPO](https://ypochicago.org/about-ypo-chicago/). The current governor is his nephew. + +[Penny Pritzker is also listed as a notable member.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Presidents%27_Organization) + +**Another Update** + +[Henry Kravis and Ben S. Bernanke know each other and even attended the same Bilderberg Conference as the markets where starting to crash in 2008 and the mainstream media had a blackout of this event at the time.](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2008/06/why-isn-t-the-press-corps-more-interested-in-covering-the-bilderberg-conference.html) + +[The meeting took place June 5-8 of that year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bilderberg_meetings) + +Ken Griffin has also attended the event multiple times with some searching showing [2015](https://bilderbergmeetings.co.uk/) and [2017](https://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/meetings/meeting-2017/participants-2017) + +Here is a summary of the annual Bilderberg meetings + +"The Bilderberg meeting (also known as the Bilderberg Group) is an annual conference established in 1954 to foster dialogue between Europe and North America. The group's agenda, originally to prevent another world war, is now defined as bolstering a consensus around free market Western capitalism and its interests around the globe. Participants include political leaders, experts from industry, finance, academia, and the media, numbering between 120 and 150. Attendees are entitled to use information gained at meetings, but not attribute it to a named speaker. This is to encourage candid debate, while maintaining privacy—a provision that has fed conspiracy theories from both the left and right. + +Meetings were chaired by Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands until 1976. The current Chairman is Henri de Castries." + +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_meeting + + +**BIG UPDATE Credit to /u/throwawaylurker012** + +Here it is I will just post it in his words + +"ELI5: there was a lawsuit called PennEast Pipeline Co v NJ where basically SCOTUS tentatively ruled on side of the private co (PennEast) to use federal power of eminent domain (read: tell states go fuck yourself and take their land)" + +"NJ said nah that shit don't work because "sovereign immunity" and SCOTUS ruled 5-4 for PennEast + +so not 100% but think with that ruling (think it got sent back to a district court?) but basically: "If this case already has some Supreme Court precedent, then Griffin having an in with the governor (and CyrusOne) might make it easier for them to roll over on any lawsuit. CyrusOne could just pull the same shit with PennEast and use eminent domain rules to perhaps land grab the spaces most conducive to accelerating their high frequency trading game plan." +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4g449w995az71.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ff30c1a36a132d545d6e9f543daf9063bf3aa44 + +*This is one of a series of posts where I will apply my fast and dirty historical fundamental analysis to some of the biggest dogshit stocks of 2021. If you are interested in the process I use below to evaluate a stock, check out* [How Do I Buy A Stonk???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lzjpvf/how_do_i_buy_a_stock/) + +# The Business + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bgeflina5az71.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=0453c606858afb8a150b44bb2df1883dc0d774cc + +Magellan Financial Group is a Sydney based investment fund manager that was founded in 2006 by Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay. Unlike what the name might imply, this fund does not have any relation to the Magellan Fund that Peter Lynch helmed at Fidelity. No, this Aussie fundie started with quite a different, though well recognised name, Malcolm Turnbull. His struggling Pengana Hedge Fund (started in 2003) was scooped up by the two investment bankers looking to start out on their own. After a rebranding and a restructure of the investments, away they went. + +Magellan runs a number of closed and open funds, hedged and unhedged funds, though the majority of its funds under management are aligned with its Global Equities strategy. In the initial decade since starting the fund, Magellan did quite well and drew big investments from both retail and institutional clients. In FY21, their total funds under management topped over $100b making them one of the largest active fund managers in Australia. + +# The Checklist + +* Net Profit: positive all of the last 10 years. Good ✅ +* Outstanding Shares: slight trend up, but stable L10Y. Good ✅ +* Revenue, Profit, & Equity: mainly growing, but took a major hit to profit LY. Neutral ⚪ +* Insider Ownership: 28.5% w/ several buys, but 2x directors sold $15m\* @ $60 LY. Neutral ⚪ +* Debt / Equity: 1.5% w/ Current Ratio of 1.6x. Good ✅ +* ROE: 42% Avg L10Y w/ 42% FY21. Good ✅ +* Dividend: 2.9% 10Y Avg Yield w/ 6.0% FY21. Good ✅ +* BPS 5.38 (6.5x P/B) w/ NTA $4.77 (7.3x P/NTA). Bad ❌ +* 10Y Avg: SPS $2.15 (16.3x P/S), EPS $1.22 (30.4x P/E). Bad ❌ +* Growth: +50.7% Avg Revenue Growth L10Y w/ +3.0% FY21. Good ✅ + +**Fair Value: $19.17** + +**Target Buy: $13.60** + +^(\* I should note that one of these sales (Paul Lewis in Oct ’20) was partial sale and partial rebalancing. He sold about $9m in MFG shares, and then reinvested half of that equally into each of the 4 fund strategies.) + +# The Knife + +https://preview.redd.it/mrkemc8i5az71.png?width=1843&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5d763004fafc9cb23bad2e1e76990edf01b02c4 + +In February of 2020, MFG was a few cents off breaking $75 per share. It’s trajectory upwards could have almost be described as meteoric when it launched from mid-$20 level in early 2019. + +One month later, MFG hit a wall. No real surprises there, as the whole share market took a beating in March of 2020. What is perhaps surprising is the rocky and uncertain recovery that followed. The weakness in the share really started to show later that year, and despite a few months of recovery in the first half of 2021, the decline accelerated in the second half of this year. + +MFG at the close of Friday the 12th of Nov 2021 @ 34.93 is over 50% down from its all-time high 18 months ago. Indeed, in the last few weeks, it has come within $1 of breaking the low it set in the 2020 market crash. + +# The Diagnosis + +Short Answer: It overshot the mark in 2019 and was well and truly overvalued. + +Long Answer: There’s been a confluence of negative events coming out of 2020 that have led to MFG projecting lower profit levels as well as lower investment returns on their funds. This has really highlighted the investment decisions of their lead fund manager over the recent years, with some now questioning the longterm prospects of their strategy. + +**Profit Levels Take a Hit** + +The story starts a few years prior to their launch in 2019, MFG was hitting some solid numbers, growing their funds, and racking up statutory profit levels just under $200m per year. This almost doubled in 2019 though, and in FY20 the company did $396m in profit. With their \~80% payout rates, this led to some pretty good dividends, and is likely the primary driver for MFG’s stock to rocket like it did in early 2019. + +&#x200B; + +[marketindex.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/baoe5qet8az71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=9811d0e2a418ddc6fcf05eb2c1ecb0598ae9c357) + +This understandably drew a lot of attention from the investment community, both in their funds under management, and those who bought into the company itself. The share price understandably rocketed off the big uptick in dividends in FY18 and charged up well into FY20. + +However, FY21 was not quite as good a year, after everything was said and done, MFG posted a statutory profit of only $296m, quite a knock to the previous years. It must be said that their underlying profit levels were still quite good, but perhaps the market’s confidence was a bit rocked by the rough numbers. Still, their share managed to maintain a lot of its previous price levels for a time. + +Though, I think if anything, the knock to profit levels may have only highlighted a deeper issue, causing many to re-evaluate the strategy of the investment funds themselves. + +**A Look Under the Hood** + +Having donned the name Magellan, Hamish Douglass, has aligned himself as a peer to one of the best performing fund managers in history. I cannot knock the name, as it’s a good one, and no doubt inspires confidence in those that are invested with him. + +But is the pedigree of the name justified by their performance? + +As with most active investment funds, regular monthly updates and yearly recaps on the direction and outlook of the strategy are released. These are great to get insight into the thinking behind the fund and where it might be headed. MFG are no exception, and in fact, early on seemed to relish this part of the process, releasing long discourses on strategy in biannual reports. Looking back on these old fund reports is interesting in hindsight. It gives a good idea to the evolution and overall character of the fund manager, and where they got it right and wrong. + +&#x200B; + +[Oct '20 vs Sep '21 monthly fund update](https://preview.redd.it/w7wz17vm5az71.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=a280ec987aac7877183e7d4d26fc96f246f2c470) + +Going back to the very first reports in 2008, one finds rough-around-the-edges presentations, with some interesting picks and early successes. After some progress, Mr. Douglass highlighted proudly in the 2013 biannual fund report for their Global Fund (presently the open class version is listed under MGOC, but previously it was listed as MGF) that the fund was well in front of the MSCI World index benchmark. Indeed, for 5 years and about 8 reports following that, the breakdown of Magellan’s global fund’s relative performance against the MSCI was front and centre. + +It is interesting to observe that these highlights somewhat abruptly stopped in 2018. The table dropped the MSCI figures, and merely festooned self-set 9% performance target. All of a sudden, the word “downside” pops up ad nauseum in the analysis, claiming the fund is strategically aligned to capture and defend against it. + +&#x200B; + +[Make your choice wisely.](https://preview.redd.it/ggug5g4r5az71.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=7301432e85c79ad50157a86de1fba0156310af5e) + +Strangely, I personally cannot find a mention of a 9% performance target prior to that report. Indeed, only 2 years prior in the 2016 fund report (a 20-page magnum opus of analysis, I might add), the word ‘downside’ doesn’t appear even once, nor does the word “defensive,” much less is a performance objective of 9% highlighted at all. On the contrary, MFG discuss artificial intelligence and virtual reality. They have a section headed: “Exponential versus linear growth.” Mr. Douglass’ outlook predictions sound quite science fiction, and certainly not bearish. I think he’d have found good company with Cathy Wood back then. + +I don’t claim to have any insight into the evolution in thinking behind all of this. It would appear that for the team at MFG, 2018 looked that much different than 2016. Though, I imagine there may have been a bit of whiplash for investors jumping into the funds in the previous years to hear the fund had gotten so ultra-conservative since. Ostensibly, the fund did a 180 from to what looked like aggressive growth-oriented strategy only 2-3 years previous. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/aum5dx0v8az71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=372aaba90809facefdd20748fe7a2c5c34bf671c + +Now with a defensive and conservative general strategic position, and only aiming for 9%p.a. when the index has done 15%+p.a. regularly in the years previous. The question becomes: is the downside protection of an active fund manager worth 1.35% management fee + .07% spread + 10% excess return performance fee to be a part of? Is downside protection even worth it, if one misses out on the greatest portion of the gains in the meantime? That is something only the individual investor can answer for themselves. + +**Performance Lagging** + +Though even with as much commentary as there has been around their present defensive strategies, the fund currently is not looking so flash against the benchmark. It is true that for a number of years, the Magellan Global Fund (MGOC) outperformed the index. However, their recent retracement in performance has wiped out much of the alpha (gains in excess of the index) they once enjoyed. + +&#x200B; + +[From magellangroup.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/vir9fs3x5az71.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=74147aadfb510cebfbed6aad34c938985f1af3ec) + +The fund is still positive the index by almost +4% since inception, but investors who jumped on board in the past 7 years will have underperformed the benchmark slightly all these years later. Worse still, investors that piled money into the MGOC in the middle of the 2020 crash, have 1 year later missed out on 20% of the benchmarked gains. Essentially, had those investors instead picked up a passive ETF like Vanguards MSCI Index ETF (VGS), which tracks the same benchmark index as MGOC, than they would have been far better off, and would have been able to keep that extra percentage in fees too. + +&#x200B; + +[Comparison from last 6 months](https://preview.redd.it/kzsktxyz5az71.png?width=1845&format=png&auto=webp&s=c70a2f53438d96cd34706368364ba44eb6834ba2) + +That isn’t even to mention other competitor active management funds, like Hyperion’s Global Growth fund (HYGG). It is a similarly positioned fund, focusing on global growth companies, but by contrast has been the best performing fund based on 3year average returns. Their 3-year average is currently over 25%p.a, and 5-year average of 26%p.a. This is as compared to an index return of 13% and 15% respectively. MFG’s fund by comparison would appear to be quite mediocre. + +Even looking at the last 6 months alone, HYGG has managed to appreciate by over 28%, which is 8% more than the index, and a full 16% higher than MGOC. For all intents and purposes, Mr. Douglass missed most of the market rally in the past year with his conservative strategy. + +&#x200B; + +[5 year performance vs benchmark](https://preview.redd.it/og1j6ga56az71.png?width=1675&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f81ac02fa4b8bf83b8d0978b53848fcf8b590fd) + +And the longer term 5-year picture is even more stark, when stacking up the old MHG (global hedged) ticker against Vanguard’s MSCI world index tracking passive fund, VGS. + +&#x200B; + +[\*awkward silence\*](https://preview.redd.it/3enxub586az71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=054e3dea4c00c7858522325349d71e0a0d3134aa) + +**Major Outflows** + +This may be one reason why there have been some major outflows from MFG’s total FUM (funds under management) more recently, which appears to be the major catalyst for the drop of the share price into the low $30s last month. Though, some of this is attributed to clients rebalancing by MFG, and to be fair as well, there has likely been a lot of outflows in general from markets given they’ve breaking their all-time highs this year. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/d5rkizkd6az71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5e0761f8e85d4bfd4c66846a5a3da4ab6bdac85 + +Quite concerning for MFG investors to read news of multibillion dollar withdraws, especially if it were to continue. MFG’s revenue is largely from management and performance fees. The less funds under management, the less fees that can be extracted. + +# The Outlook + +In order to have any bearing on MFG’s outlook, I think it’s important to have a gauge on whether this downturn in their investment fund is likely to turn around at some stage. This is truly a difficult task, since no one is able to predict the market, but understanding why the global fund has struggled to perform in the past year could give us some greater insight in what the future holds. + +&#x200B; + +[Compiled from 30th June 2021 portfolio holdings filing.](https://preview.redd.it/0sn9z4nf6az71.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=a26b0b4f1f4ebb7e71ea748367dc2fcccb6f4037) + +Currently, the MGOC fund holds stock in 23 companies. As far as sector exposure, MGOC is heavily weighted into technology companies like Microsoft & SAP; communications companies like Facebook, Google, and Netflix; and consumer discretionary companies like Starbucks, Alibaba, and Yum! Brands (KFC/Pizzahut/TacoBell). The vast majority of the portfolio is in companies that are domiciled in the USA. + +Not much of this seems out of the ordinary on the surface. Looking at just about any global fund’s Top5 holdings, one would expect to see major positions big American growth style companies. What is a bit more revealing is the comparison of Magellan portfolio to the benchmark index, as well as popular stock holdings amongst other active fund managers. And it’s as much what MFG hold as it is what they don’t hold. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5yrye5sl6az71.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=d332759bce5cf8e43679876f6bc2306a24d2a67a + +For example, vs the MSCI benchmark, which consists of literally hundreds of companies around the world, Magellan represents a select 12% of the index. No real surprises there, but where they diverge is in their Alibaba and Tencent holdings. + +MGOC’s position in these equities is even quite a bit lower than what it was at one stage late last year. Their September 2020 portfolio update showed the Chinese equities as the #1 and #3 largest positions in the portfolio, representing 14.5% of the fund between them. Indeed, their Oct monthly snapshot report claimed that roughly 20% of the portfolio’s geographical exposure by revenue source was in China. The other point of note here is that their overweight position in Chinese equities has come at the expense of being underweight stocks in the USA. + +Furthermore, looking at the top 100 most popular stock holdings by hedge fund managers (info sourced from HedgeFollow, which is compiled from SEC filings, labeled HFTH above), it’s sector divergences also become apparent. Most global funds (including the index) are quite heavily weighted towards technology stocks (20%+), whereas MGOC on a relative basis is underweight that sector with only 12% invested. + +Instead, MGOC has quite significantly positioned themselves in consumer defensive stocks with over 14% of their funds in staples, which is about twice the index. Even more starkly, is their overweight position in Utilities. By weight, MFG have nearly three times the amount of utility stocks as the index. This is a sector which is otherwise largely ignored by other active fund managers. Contrast Magellan’s MGOC positioning with Hyperion’s high flying HYGG fund, for example. Similarly, amongst the 100 most popular holdings amongst hedge funds, not one is in the Utility sector. + +**Strategy & Performance** + +Quoting from their latest fund investor report (June 2021), their major outlays into staples and utilities represent: + +*An investment across a range of highly resilient businesses that represented 36% of the portfolio. These businesses primarily offer ballast and downside protection to the portfolio. The fundamental performance of these companies is largely immune to the economic cycle, given their products and services are either essential or in increasing demand. The performance should also be only modestly affected by measures that would likely be required to contain further covid-19 outbreaks. We have been mindful with respect to the form and degree of inflation and interest-rate exposure across these holdings. These investments offer attractive risk-adjusted returns under a wide range of potential economic outcomes.* + +Well, how has that faired? + +https://preview.redd.it/vktly3lw8az71.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=3828869490aa974816ad84e63ff4fb79f4ee750a + +^(Note: I've used) ^(portfolio filings to build out an approximate time frame for when stocks were added in the recent years. From there, I’ve scraped historical stock data to see performance to date per year (current price vs historical price from the year time frame noted.) + +The core tech and communications stocks that MFG have long held in their global fund have done well. Though, more recent stock pick performance has been lacklustre at best. The worst of the pain has come from the Chinese stocks, of which most of us know the story. Given that MFG picked them up sometime in 2019, their 40-50% drops would have undoubtably been quite painful. + +I think there is a reasonable point to be made here, with context of the “defensive” strategy pitch of MFG. With all of the questions surrounding Chinese stocks over the years, and with major catastrophes like Luckin coffee as recently as early 2020, well before the current dramas, it is a reasonable to ask why Magellan would even have gone near that market. Not only did MFG do so, they piled in with a 20% revenue exposure to the region. + +Then again, who am I to argue really. Big names like Ray Dalio and Charlie Munger have been piling into these Chinese businesses like Alibaba and Tencent. Perhaps Mr. Douglass has it right on that call in the long run. But the point stands, because the question is really whether or not MFG’s investors agree with guys like Dalio and Munger, or are perhaps more dubious about throwing their money at major Chinese equities with, thus far, a pretty rough track record. + +That being said, it must also be noted that MFG’s big push into utilities and staples around the same time hasn’t exactly worked out well for them either. Ironically, I actually kind of like the idea of being overweight in utilities and staples right now, personally. Except, reading through the reasoning MFG has explained, I’m not convinced that MFG would stick with them long enough for it to actually matter. Only time will tell. + +# The Verdict + +Ultimately, fund manager performance in the market is a game of relatives. And in the last 18 months retail investors have been piling in, picking meme stocks and making bags. Even the dollar-cost averaging blokes at Ausfinance have been raking in 50% gains on the funds they deployed in the last 12-18months off their index pegged passive ETFs. + +&#x200B; + +[It's not the bull market, we are all geniuses!](https://preview.redd.it/kzv65t7y6az71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=0272f8324a0dc9ab509bb0d63e434abb6454d91a) + +In contrast, Magellan has hovered not far away from their ultraconservative 9.0% performance target. And if they have effectively “captured the downside” of the 2020 crash, it’s not at all obvious. + +Buying MFG is about buying into an investment personality. Their revenues are one step removed from their actual investment strategy, being based largely on the management and performance fees that they rake in for managing other people’s money. So, in some sense, Magellan’s performance doesn’t matter at all, and all that matters is how well guys like Hamish Douglass can sell their strategy to would-be high net worth individuals that are chasing market alpha. + +&#x200B; + +[Screen cap of video clip on magellangroup.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/g0px3x357az71.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c1ece8e9e377c6f765f6dc3c7f7e70f9423a23d0) + +Personally, I would count buying MFG as endorsing the strategy, talent, and long-term prospects of Mr. Douglass. So that really is more of a subjective personal thing for individual investors. Dare I say, DYOR? Certainly, all investment managers have their off years. It’s truly unfortunate for MFG that they’ve missed one of the best years on record. But past performance does not indicate future returns, and that cuts both ways. + +**A bit of Advice from Jack Bogle** + +MFG might be one great example of what Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard and father of the passive investing, was talking about when he highlighted many years ago that 90% of fund managers don’t beat the market in the long run. + +&#x200B; + +[The Legend](https://preview.redd.it/gdzm4c497az71.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0213b6a33ca3e15253077a26590da42fadcfb3c) + +Part of the problem is that the game is being played by all the smartest finance guys. All the money sharks are gunning for the same elusive market alpha. The thing is, for any buyer there is a seller. The market as a whole always balances out. To gain alpha is to be on the right side of the trade more often than not. In a game amongst sharks, chances are that most will be running around 50:50 in the long run. It’s said that even Peter Lynch and his legendary Fidelity Magellan Fund only averaged about 60:40 on their win/loss ratio. Add a big management and performance fees to a breakeven long-term track record, and you get underperformance. + +The other thing that Bogle highlighted is that the very mechanics of a mutual fund tend to force fund managers into making the worst possible timing moves. When a fund is performing well, cash piles in. Excess cash burns a hole in the fund manager’s pockets. If uninvested, serves as a massive deadweight dragging down the overall average returns (Indeed, Magellan had this issue not that long ago, having maintained 15-20% cash position in its global fund for years leading up to 2019). If invested, it’s likely piling into positions close to their all-time high, given its coming after a big run in historical returns. + +On the flipside, when a fund is performing badly (or there is a market downturn), cash flows out. Investors want their money, forcing the fund manager to sell out of positions at their low, maybe even at losses. A famous instance of this is portrayed in *The Big Short.* One of Michael Burry’s largest investors pulled out of the fund shortly before the big payoff. At the time, things looked grim for returns, despite Burry's conviction. Essentially, fund managers are often forced into buying at the high and selling at the lows in the market, purely through the mechanics of a mutual fund. With MFG’s global fund showing some weakness, and the market threatening a downturn to boot, this may well happen to them too. + +**Size Matters** + +Another point worth highlighting here is that fund size in many ways caps the upper limit on the kinds of returns an investment can achieve. For one, the range of feasible choices in companies is dictated by the liquidity and market-cap of those companies. A fund with $100billion in assets will have a hard time opening a meaningful position in a small-cap company with a market cap of only $1b. As a result, these larger funds are effectively limited with buying mega-cap companies. + +The bigger the money, the smaller the playing field. As an investment fund ascends into buying only the largest mega-cap companies, they enter a realm in which the largest and best performing funds in the world are all competing with one another for the same slice of the alpha. Furthermore, buys and sells at that level take days or weeks to execute, leaving funds more vulnerable for sudden changes in the market. + +**Smart Money** + +So, the conundrum is that a small nimble fund can prove itself quite successful, but ensure the death of its returns by doing so, attracting levels of capital that are no longer workable under the original strategy. Paradoxically, the result is investors, wanting to get a professional to actively manage to their investments so that they can ensure it’s deployed ‘smartly’, are feeding their money into a structure that is mechanically almost guaranteed to fail. + +All that being said, it must be reemphasized that investing in MFG is a different beast entirely to investing in MGOC. As long as Mr. Douglass can maintain his investor base and inspire them with his expertise and strategy, then in the end, he will ensure that the investment company itself will do well. This is somewhat helped along with some non-stock based strategic investments in Barrenjoy investment bank and Guzman & Gomez, of which I could spend more time on, but have already written too much. + +# The Target + +So, the question remains, what is a good price to buy MFG at, should we take an optimistic approach to their future prospects? + +https://preview.redd.it/m4jyo04b7az71.png?width=1063&format=png&auto=webp&s=3d318be65b2bd0b1666f5250231af79f6acea423 + +I think there are two main ways to approach this valuation, and it all depends on if you are bullish or bearish on their immediate performance expectations. A bullish take would be to evaluate their value based on their FY21 or perhaps the previous 3-year average, in which they maintained a sizable funds under management. A more bearish take would be to take their fuller history into view and value them on the basis of the 10-year averages. For the latter, the original fair and target prices applies. + +Looking at the average figures for the last 3 years, we get the following per share fundamentals: + +* SPS $3.73 +* EPS $1.91 +* DPS $2.01 +* BPS $5.38 + +Given the type of company, revenue is more well aligned with EBITDA than it is the traditional top line figure of the average company. I think it is fair to approach this valuation a bit differently regarding their SPS. I’ve chosen to exclude it, since it has been difficult for me to determine the historical EV/EBITDA ratio, but one could perhaps consider a multiple of 8x or 10x to be reasonable. + +Thusly, we can get the following fair and target prices, using an adjusted 3-year average fundamentals: + +**Fair Price (L3Ya) – $31.34** + +**Target Buy (L3Ya) – $14.36** + +It’s worth noting that purely from a dividend viewpoint, fair value (4% yield) of MFG using the 3-year average is a touch over $50 per share. I would venture a guess that more than anything else, the dividend yield drives the pricing on this share. In that way, MFG somewhat trades like a bond, with the capital value rising and falling in relation to the future expected yields. Therefore, if one were to be able to get a good gauge on the future dividend stream, they would be in an excellent position to know where the share price may go. Though, that is much easier said than answered, given it rests entirely with the subjective evaluation that investors in MFG’s funds have of their fund manager, and things like these can be fickle over time. + +# The TL;DR + +Magellan fund was born of the wreckage of Malcolm Turnbull’s old Pengana Hedge Fund, when Hamish Douglass and Chris Mackay scooped up and rebranded and restructured the fund in 2006. Under the banner of Magellan, the team undoubtably drew inspiration from the legendary Peter Lynch, who ran Fidelity Magellan Fund in the 1980s and achieved an average yearly return of nearly 30%, one of the best overall performances ever. + +By contrast though, the Aussie duo have had to temper expectations more recently, pitching their fund these days as positioned to capture downside and protect capital. Their performance objective is a conservative 9.0% per annum, despite the benchmark having achieved 16% in the last 10 years. The last couple of years have been quite difficult for MFG, with their flagship fund underperforming the index in the last year by more than 20%. Many investors may be questioning the previously great performances of the lead fund manager, which might lead to a major net outflow from their funds. + +Whether or not MFG is a good deal I think is a matter of how much confidence one has in the overall investment strategies of the fund managers. If they, through talent and charisma can maintain their investor base’s faith in the strategy, the management and performance fees will continue to roll in. Historically, that has meant quite substantial dividend payouts for investors in the investment company itself, and a share price history that wasn’t too shabby either. But oft repeated phrase that past performance is not an indication of future returns could not be more relevant here. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on MFG and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*On Deck Next Fortnight: AZJ* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (no particular order): IPL, Z1P, RFG, FLT, QAN, CWN, FNP, OML.* + +[Previous Editions of Catching the Knife](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nevelo/comments/sfc7gi/catching_the_knife_series/) +If you’re not in retirement, or even if you are, what does it matter if you get the money every month, or bigger checks every 3 months? + +I know there’s a little time value of money involved, but not that much. +Some info about myself: +\-29 yo italian software engineer living in the netherlands +\-my currently salary is 68k gross ( 4600 euro per month but my net will drop in 12 months by \~600 euro as my 30% ruling will be over. obviously my gross will keep growing over the years) +\-homeowner, in Amsterdam, I purchased my house for 270k 14 months ago, I am paying 940 euro per month to the bank (30 years, 1.65% fixed for 10 years). note: my house's value has already increased to 310-320k +\-I save \~2k per month and at the moment I have 15k in my bank account ( I will create a saving account and move the money there as "emergency fund") +\-I have \~3k in crypto + +My gol is stop working in 18-20 years and move to the canary islands: the plan is to rent the house in Amsterdam and not sell it. + +In order to do that I need to start investing and after spending some hours on reddit, youtube and blogs I've concluded that best (ratio risk/returns) investment is putting money on all world ETF: I am planning to use DeGiro (custody, because I want to lower the risks) and go full in with VWCE (all-world provided by vanguard. 0.22% of TER is not that bad). + +what's your opinion on this strategy? thanks in advance. ciao! +* People used to pay each other in gold and silver. Difficult to transport. Difficult to divide. +* Paper money was invented. A claim to gold in a bank vault. Easier to transport and divide. +* Banks gave out more paper money than they had gold in the vault. They ran “fractional reserves”. A real money maker. But every now and then, banks collapsed because of runs on the bank. +* Central banking was invented. Central banks would be lenders of last resort. Runs on the bank were thus mitigated by banks guaranteeing each other’s deposits through a central bank. The risk of a bank run was not lowered. Its frequency was diminished and its impact was increased. After all, banks remained basically insolvent in this fractional reserve scheme. +* Banks would still get in trouble. But now, if one bank got in sufficient trouble, they would all be in trouble at the same time. Governments would have to step in to save them. +* All ties between the financial system and gold were severed in 1971 when Nixon decided that the USD would no longer be exchangeable for a fixed amount of gold. This exacerbated the problem, because there was now effectively no limit anymore on the amount of paper money that banks could create. +* From this moment on, all money was created as credit. Money ceased to be supported by an asset. When you take out a loan, money is created and lent to you. Banks expect this freshly minted money to be returned to them with interest. Sure, banks need to keep adequate reserves. But these reserves basically consist of the same credit-based money. And reserves are much lower than the loans they make. +* This led to an explosion in the money supply. The Federal Reserve stopped reporting M3 in 2006. But the ECB currently reports a yearly increase in the supply of the euro of about 5%. +* This leads to a yearly increase in prices. The price increase is somewhat lower than the increase in the money supply. This is because of increased productivity. Society gets better at producing stuff cheaper all the time. So, in absence of money creation you would expect prices to drop every year. That they don’t is the effect of money creation. +* What remains is an inflation rate in the 2% range. +* Banks have discovered that they can siphon off all the productivity increase + 2% every year, without people complaining too much. They accomplish this currently by increasing the money supply by 5% per year, getting this money returned to them at an interest. +* Apart from this insidious tax on society, banks take society hostage every couple of years. In case of a financial crisis, banks need bailouts or the system will collapse. +* Apart from these problems, banks and governments are now striving to do away with cash. This would mean that no two free men would be able to exchange money without intermediation by a bank. If you believe that to transact with others is a fundamental right, this should scare you. +* The absence of sound money was at the root of the problem. We were force-fed paper money because there were no good alternatives. Gold and silver remain difficult to use. +* When it was tried to launch a private currency backed by precious metals (Liberty dollar), this initiative was shut down because it undermined the U.S. currency system. Apparently, a currency alternative could only thrive if “nobody” launched it and if they was no central point of failure. +* What was needed was a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. This was what Satoshi Nakamoto described in 2009. It was a response to all the problems described above. That is why he labeled the genesis block with the text: “03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”. Bitcoin was meant to be an alternative to our current financial system. + +So, if you find yourself religiously checking some cryptocurrency’s price, or bogged down in discussions about the “one true bitcoin”, or constantly asking what currency to buy, please at least remember that we have bigger fish to fry. + +We are here to fix the financial system. + +Edit: wow, thanks for the gold! + +I’m a EMT & and my SO is as well. I just can’t picture how a couple can afford to buy multiple homes and turn them all into rentals, making profit while paying the mortgage. +When covid is over, or at least declared over - my assumption is that the economy will explode in terms of spending. With that I believe will come inflation, including interest rate hikes. + +Knowing that the recent 30% increase in home prices is partially due to the low interest rates, high building process and lack of supply - what will happen to housing market once the economy goes back into full swing and more (greater than 100% recovery) ie beast mode economy? + +EDIT: specifically GTA and Toronto core +I am Serbian, 29 years old, grew up in a lower middle class family with debt where we had to grow most of our own food to make ends meet. I was born broke and everyone I know is still broke. My story is very unusual for this part of Europe and I have nobody to share it with. This is not a post where I'm trying to brag. I have more money than I need but I feel like I'm barely hanging on. + +Started out as a software dev in my late teens. skipped university, worked remotely for US startups instead. Saved 80% of what I made. In my early 20s. I quit to bootstrap my own SaaS company, which I have been running for the last 7 years. I run a team of 30 people and currently make about $400K per year after taxes. My portfolio is 60% real estate (4 properties), 40% Stocks (Index + single). Total NW is about $5-6M (valuing my biz at ebitda x6, in reality it's probably higher since it's growing). + +Growing up broke I always worked towards "making it". A decade later, now that I have reached the top of the mountain, I feel stressed beyond belief and lost. If you asked me what I really wish I could have, it would be a good night's sleep without an alarm clock. I wake up every couple of hours feeling like I've missed some kind of deadline or opportunity. Staring at the ceiling for hours on end is now a part of my routine. Cut out all caffeine, didn't change anything. + +My wife is 7 months pregnant and this has made me even more anxious about how I'm going to manage being a dad when I currently feel like I'm barely hanging on. But if I slow down, I am confident that my business will not perform as well and may go under entirely. Our market is extremely volatile and we are going through a tough time with covid/the war. In addition, every single competitor of ours is VC-funded, so we can't afford to slow down and lose market share. + +I am extremely privileged to be in this position, yet, I feel unhappy. I worry about the future and don't know what to do. Please don't tell me to just "take a vacation". I've tried it -- all I can do is think about work and feel extremely guilty. + +Have you been in a similar situation and what did you do to regain your sanity? +I don't think this is entirely unreasonable but it will also effect my exit strategy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-28/1031-exchange-biden-pushes-to-end-real-estate-investment-tax-break +I'm in a predicament where I don't know if I want to start paying down my rental property faster or use that money for another down payment on a 2nd rental. (I pay a primary residence mortgage as well) + +The rental property has been occupied by a tenant for 8 years and still going strong. The rent fully covers the mortgage + +Housing here in Alberta has been abysmal the past 6 years where housing has actually dropped by 20-25% so paying if off early would actually make me lose money. + +The only reason why I'm thinking about paying it off in full is the fact I will have an extra $1500/month disposable income and won't have to stress about it being vacant and paying 2, 3 mortgages. + +Yes, rates are low and it's been on my mind since the beginning to leverage and accumulate as many properties as possible but that's a walking a very thin line. All I need is for 2 properties to go vacant before I run into some trouble (provided I have troubles finding a tenant) + +What have you done when in this position? +Thanks + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/j9c2tv) + I’ve been part of the PinkPanda community since the beginning, and the work being done there continues to impress me every day. This team is as transparent and as active as it gets. They are constantly in the chat answering questions, all the while doing incredible work behind the scenes to push this coin forward. + +A list of accomplishments so far, barely a week and a half since launch: + +Version 1 of the mobile app released for iOS and Android + +Audit completed by Dessert Finance + +Contract renounced + +Owner doxxed + +Almost nightly informal AMA’s, with an official twitch AMA last Sunday + +$1000 donated to the American Cancer Society + +And let’s talk about the chart. It’s as healthy of a chart as I’ve ever seen, especially for a BSC coin. Steady, consistent, growth ever since launch. And with all the plans coming, I don’t see it slowing down anytime soon. + +This coin is still pre-CMC listing. A ton of updates are still coming for the app, the biggest of which will be a 5x leveraged mobile DEX. That is an incredible use case for this coin! It would be both the first DEX with leverage and the first with a mobile app. We know that trading on BSC is not always easy, and not very accessible to the average investor. Imagine how much that would change with the ease of use of a mobile DEX. The leverage and other built-in functionality (like limit and stop orders) will help bring maturation to BSC trading and further increase the appeal to more traditional traders that are used to these options. + +Sometimes lost in all of this is that this coin also has a charitable mission. $1000 has already been donated to the American Cancer Society, with much more on the way. + +Tokenomics + +1 quadrillion total supply + +Breakdown: + +50% burned (500T) + +20% presale (200T) + +20% initial liquidity (200T) + +5% charity and community airdrop wallet (50T) + +5% dev and marketing (50T) + +Taxes: + +5% of each transaction auto-locked in liquidity on Pancakeswap v2 + +5% of each transaction automatically redistributed to PinkPanda holders + +This one is going places. I have never had so little anxiety about a coin. I go to sleep, I wake up, the chart continues to grow. The dips are eaten faster than I’ve ever seen. The future is so bright for this coin it’s blinding. You won’t regret joining this one, both for the long-term potential, and the amazing, fun, welcoming community of pandas. Hop in the telegram and check it out for yourself! + +Telegram:@PinkPandaDefi + +Twitter:@PinkPandaDefi + +Website: pinkpanda.finance + +Reddit: PinkPanda + +YouTube: Pink Panda Finance + +Medium: PinkPandaDefi + +Twitch: pinkpandafinance + +Bamboo soon. +This one goes out to all those licking their wounds. + +6 months ago seems like a fever dream. You’d just been through the volatility of covid, taken your lumps along the way, but the future was bright. + +Maybe you are a VP at Zoom sitting on an RSU package that was once worth $15M. + +Maybe you’re a founder or exec at a SaaS company and were counting your chickens. + +Been there. + +Winter is here and it’s hard to stomach. Coca Cola and Phillip Morris still trade near all time highs and yet your net worth has been cut 70% in the last 6 months. + +I see you. I feel you. + +I feel especially bad for those who had made life changing decisions based on their “net worth” that have seen it evaporate in what feels like a nanosecond and for reasons that are pretty unclear. + +Those who spent years building something that skyrocketed in value, on premises that seemed solid (you know, ARR, margin, etc.) that are now faced with a completely new reality. You built solid companies based on fundamental premises that seemed solid. + +The current circumstances feel irrational. + +Unfair even. + +It’s tough. + +Meanwhile there are speculators all around you who managed to win (and I mean that in the most gambling oriented way) life changing wealth while building nothing at all (crypto). + +We survey the smoking landscape and wonder where we go from here. + +There is a special class of person whose life has been destroyed in ways none of us will ever fully appreciate. + +That person is the one who was overexposed to saas, and the majority of those were in that position against their direct will (eg RSU, founder). + +Meanwhile the speculators (crypto) and grey hairs (index) have hardly felt any pain, especially the former relative to their risk exposure. + +I feel you. + +The future is impossible to predict but for what it is worth (nothing) I believe you will eventually be partially made whole: a company with 80% margin with net revenue retention &gt; 100% growing at 50% year over year is worth more than what you’re holding. + +I guess the lesson is to diversify, if nothing else hopefully this calamity will create more opportunities to do so when you bet your families future on RSU or options in companies with amazing fundamentals. + +Easier said than done, as today there are very few convenient ways for a person with significant restricted stock to save their ass and I’m truly sorry for the many who are reading this who thought they’d be resigning tomorrow to head for the beach. + +Edit: seems many people are interpreting this as me being a dumbass that got smoked and complaining. I have taken a beating, but I’m definitely not in the situation described here. mostly this is a reflection on what life could easily have been like for me had timing been different. I get that maybe these circumstances are hard to imagine for many people, and statistically rare, but believe me there are people in this sub who are highly educated and financially responsible that found themselves in situations where 80% of their fatfire grade networth was very close to being liquid, but not quite liquid, and there’s not a whole lot you can do about that if your company is late stage private or if you’re holding restricted stock. +Yikes + +Lots of yall hit home. + + really good advice in here, thanks everyone. + +Such a shame I lost everything in that boating accident! + +get some btc while it's still cheap +I hit my fatFI number this week, but still have some real estate development projects to finish up over the next two years before I can consider retiring. Here’s a summary of my journey: + +Started a “dot com” in the 90’s. Raised $$ from VC’s and served as CEO for 5 years. Never got to cash out in a big way, but was well paid and got a severance when the market (and company) collapsed. Was a great experience! That was 22 years ago and I’ve been self-employed since. + +After my first company closed, I had some savings and took a year and half off and went to business school and got an MBA. + +After business school, I was always self-employed with various ventures I started or bought. One main operating business through most of that time in medical distribution which paid the bills, provided a salary and generated extra cash flow. During business school, I decided that real estate investing would be my side hustle. Anytime I had a surplus of cash, I bought a building. + +I bought my first two unit around 2002. Fixed it up, raised rents and sold it for a nice % profit (not a big $ profit). I had my new MBA and early success and figured I could make this scale. So I bought a 5 unit. Fixed it, raised rents and refinanced it, used the cash out proceeds to buy another building. Did the same process for 20 years, trying to buy a building every year. When the market was hot, sometimes I couldn’t find anything for a couple of years (like now) - some years I was able to get some real bargains. Always multifamily or mixed use and 5+ units. Biggest are in the 75 unit range. Tried to not sell anything but keep accumulating, raising rents and refinancing. Sometimes I sold because the numbers made sense. + +Currently have around 200 units and my cash flow from my real estate “side hustle” is bigger than from my day job at the company I own. NW over $20m. And with my cash out refinances this week I have $6 million liquid which I park in diversified ETFs. + +I never lived frugally, but also didn’t live fat until a few years ago. I tried to reinvest any extra money in real estate and not use those resources for luxury. Eventually, cash flow was significant and stable enough that I changed my spending. I now have two big homes, a boat, fancy cars, nice watches etc. I have a fat budget and it’s easily covered with predictable and sustainable cash flow from real estate, my companies, and taking a tiny trickle (3% or less if I can help it) from the stock market. I still work around 3 days per week, but don’t have to. Will spend the summer fishing in the ocean near my beach house. + +Several times I came close to losing everything. My first start up failed. I lost a ton on two ambitious real estate development projects early in my career which became unviable after market conditions changed. + +But I kept plugging away, always trying to make the next right decision and always moving forward. + +I’m still trying to figure out how to slow down and unwind and enjoy life more, but I accept that new challenge :). + +Slow and steady wins the race. +Has anybody ever offered to pay off someone's mortgage? I'm interested in doing it for my best friend, best man at my wedding, etc. + +He's financially savvy with his money, has a decent paying job for his HCOL area. The deck of cards life dealt him wasn't the best though. Came over as a refugee in his teens, parents are unable to find work, so he ends up supporting them, and bought them a house in which they all live in. + +He desperately wants to move out, but the numbers dont make sense of current expenses plus rent. I'm interested in paying the mortgage off, and am wondering if other people have had experience doing so? + +I'm not looking for tax advice, but mainly interpersonal relation problems to look for when gifting large amounts of money, perhaps even anonymously paying off the mortgage. + +Thanks! +[https://www.reuters.com/business/us-existing-home-sales-fall-third-straight-month-house-prices-record-high-2022-05-19/](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-existing-home-sales-fall-third-straight-month-house-prices-record-high-2022-05-19/) + + + +U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years in April as house prices jumped to a record high amid a persistent lack of inventory. + +Existing home sales fell 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020 when sales were rebounding from the COVID-19 lockdown slump. It was the third straight monthly sales decline. +https://preview.redd.it/soxak4xpt8i71.jpg?width=638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d7eab7ef04365c7201feb47a42f645f19dd2a6b9 + +Seriously, why in this day and age does ASX have to mail out paper holding statements? + +What an absolute waste of time, money and resources... There's this thing called email ASX! + +They contain personal information that I feel warrants disposing of them securely, instead of just dumping them unopened in a bin (or saving them for backup lockdown TP). + +Does this piss off anyone else?? +>Apple hit a market cap of $2 trillion, doubling in valuation in just over two years. It’s the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach the $2 trillion milestone. + +>Apple first reached a $1 trillion market cap on Aug. 2, 2018. Wall Street has largely expected Apple to be the first to surpass the $2 trillion mark. On July 31, Apple surpassed the state oil giant Saudi Aramco to become the world’s most valuable publicly traded company. + +[CNBC full article](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/apple-reaches-2-trillion-market-cap.html), [AAPL stock price](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=AAPL) +We would normally sell our vehicles via Craigslist for what we feel is the best deal. But if the international move happens, we won't have time to sell it ourselves. I was wondering what the next best option is. We had one car quoted in the past from CarMax. I understand their business model in that they need to underbid to make a profit, but the amount offered seemed extremely low compared to the KBB price. What are good options for getting rid of cars quickly and getting a fair price? + +Edit: Vehicles are 2011 Nissan Leaf, 2013 Chevy Volt, and 2015 Chevy Silverado Duramax. + +Edit2: I may have up to about 4 weeks notice, but I'm envisioning I'll be pretty occupied with multiple activities at that time that go with packing, moving, selling a home, etc. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +A fat fine — of $402 million — is headed Instagram’s way after European Union privacy regulators came to a decision on a long running complaint related to how the social media platform handles children’s data. The penalty is for a breach of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). + +Meta was contacted for comment on the penalty. + +We understand the final GDPR decision on the Instagram enquiry was sent to Meta, Instagram’s parent, Friday — ahead of formal publication on the websites of the company’s lead data supervisor in the EU, Ireland’s Data Protection Commission (DPC); and the European Data Protection Board (EDPB), a steering body which helped coordinate a decision review process involving other interested EU data protection authorities — however the size of the penalty for Meta appears to have leaked early, via a report in Politico, which contains the fine figure (which shakes out to around $403M at current currency exchange prices) but no further details of the decision. + +Ireland’s DPC confirmed the level of fine to us. Deputy commissioner, Graham Doyle, told TechCrunch: “We adopted our final decision last Friday and it does contain a fine of €405 million. Full details of the decision will publish next week.” + +The Instagram penalty is the largest GDPR penalty the social media giant has been hit with to-date (though not the largest ever GDPR fine; that one landed on Amazon) — following a $267M penalty levied upon the Meta-owned messaging platform WhatsApp last September for violations of the GDPR’s transparency principle. + +The Instagram complaint focused on the platform’s processing of children’s data for business accounts and on a user registration system it operated which the DPC found could lead to the accounts of child users being set to “public” by default, unless the user changed the account settings to set it to “private”. + +The GDPR contains strong measures requiring privacy by design and default generally — as well provisions aimed at enhancing the protection of children’s information specifically, as well as ensuring that services targeting kids are living up to transparency and accountability principles (such as by providing suitably clear communications that children can understand). + +The reasoning underpinning the fine for Instagram is expected to be released in the coming days, when the final decision gets published next week (assuming it doesn’t leak early). + +While today’s headlines are going to make painful reading for Meta, TikTok is another social media firm likely to be watching developments closely since it’s under investigation by the DPC over its own handling of children’s data. But that enquiry was only opened by the DPC a year ago so it’s likely to have some time to run before a decision is reached. + +The Instagram decision took extra time as other DPAs raised objections to Ireland’s draft decision — triggering a mechanism in the regulation designed to settle disputes which can add many more months to the timeframe. + +Ireland’s WhatsApp decision also went through a review process after objections were raised to its draft — and in that case the size of the penalty was substantially raised as a result. But it remains to be seen whether the same has happened here, with Instagram. + +Source: [https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/05/instagram-gdpr-fine-childrens-privacy/](https://techcrunch.com/2022/09/05/instagram-gdpr-fine-childrens-privacy/) +In particular, interested in hearing from those that reached FIRE through tech and may have more financially diverse backgrounds. + +I'm the 4th in a family with 6 children and my wife has 3 siblings as well. We are very close with all of them and their kids. Some of my siblings are middle class but others are scraping by. None are close to retirement and they don't know of my plan to retire soon. I'd love to buy a big vacation for us all or perhaps gift them something like new cars or something when I hit FatFIRE. Why? Because I think it'll be a time to celebrate and I want to do so with my best friends, who are my family. I know some of my siblings would genuinely enjoy that and be happy for me. I'm concerned that some others would feel resentment in accepting a gift like this. + +Anyone have good or bad experiences to share with this? +Hey, guys. I just want to share this content creator name Behavioral Value Investing, a hidden gem for me, that produces value investing content. + +Source: [https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2019/5/14/5-insights-from-the-2019-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2019/5/14/5-insights-from-the-2019-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting) + +Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger provided many insights when they answered questions for nearly 6 hours on Saturday, May 4th, during the 2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. The following 5 themes stood out as the most important for investors: + +**1.    Meaning of Value Investing** + +***Warren Buffett:*** *The decision to buy Amazon’s stock was just as much based on value investing principles as a decision to buy a statistically cheap stock. Value investing is about estimating and valuing future cash flows, not about how low a Price to Book or a Price to Earnings ratio is for a stock.* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *You can pay too much for a wonderful business. There is a price where we could have paid too much for See’s Candies and it wouldn’t have worked out well as an investment. You can turn any investment into a bad deal by paying too much. What you can’t do is turn any investment into a good deal by paying a cheap price.* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *We are comfortable holding a lot of cash because we are operating on the assumption that we will have an opportunity to deploy it at very attractive rates.* + +***Charlie Munger****: Our problem in finding investments is that people are willing to pay higher prices than we are.*  + +***Warren Buffett:*** *We could invest $100B in the next year, just not at the prices that we like. It is not in the interest of shareholders that we start behaving like everybody else.* + +Buffett’s disclosure that one of his two investing lieutenants bought Amazon’s stock in his portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio shortly prior to the annual meeting was perhaps the biggest piece of news. Yet as far as we can tell from Buffett’s answers, he did not choose to do the same with the much larger pool of capital that he manages for Berkshire. + +The investing community has been having this debate for some time – does evolving mean starting to invest in high-expectation stocks of high quality, fast-growing companies? Or does it mean sticking to the tried and true approach of waiting for investments where the expectations embedded in the price are very pessimistic? + +Buffett correctly points out that [value investing](https://youtu.be/wIKEcpL6Xv0) is defined by estimating the *intrinsic value* of a business based on its assets and future cash flows and buying it with a big *margin of safety* relative to that value. That means that it can be completely consistent with value investing principles to invest in a stock with a high Price to Earnings ratio if one thinks that the value is much higher. + +However, **the higher the embedded expectations the more confident one has to be about the distant future of a business.** Few businesses possess such predictability and few investors are so good as to have such long-term foresight about far-out business results. Buffett also reminded us that no matter how good a business is, there is a price at which it will make a poor investment. It seems like this is a fact that has been forgotten as more and more investors succumb to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) and fancy themselves such great business forecasters that they consider the price paid for their investments to be of only secondary importance. + +Keep in mind that **we are deep into a bull market, with high valuations and few bargains.** Maybe you are one of the select few who can pay high valuations for stocks and still generate good returns based on your amazing business judgement. However, far more think that they can do this than actually can. Those who are not self-aware enough to stay within their [circle of competence](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/9/30/circle-of-competence) are bound to lose a lot of money. + +As far as we know, Buffett and Munger have not changed their stripes – [they are keeping a lot of cash on the sidelines and choosing to wait for genuine bargains](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/7/18/the-low-cost-of-inaction-dont-just-do-something-stand-there). The recently announced deal by Berkshire to finance Occidental Petroleum’s acquisition by buying an 8% Preferred Stock and a Warrant that will allow Berkshire to participate in the upside suggests that Buffett is far more eager to get a high-probability low-teens rate of return than to imagine himself capable of figuring out Amazon’s future in 20 years. + +***Charlie Munger:*** *You don't need a portfolio of 50 stocks if you know what you are doing.* + +***Charlie Munger****: If I took the 30 biggest transactions out of Berkshire \[in the past\] 60 years, what would Berkshire be? Not much. I mean we wouldn't be poor, but we wouldn't be rich either. Maybe once every two years we had a major opportunity. Not very many. (2)* + +***Warren Buffett****: We do not have any formula that calculates risk. We do our own calculation of risk vs. reward in every investment. ... We do not think that the results would be changed favorably by having lots of committees and lots of spreadsheets. ... The first question we ask is: "Are we reasonably sure we know what we are doing?"* + +There are two important and related insights here: you need to be very sure you know what you are investing in well and that you do not need to have many good investments to succeed. Most of the investment management industry is over diversified not out of an abundance of insight, but out of a combination of not having enough confidence in the insights they do have and a desire to hedge their business risk. + +Don’t confuse *conventional* with *conservative* – conservative investing means having a high degree of confidence in your estimate of business value and then waiting for a very large gap between price and value to obtain a sufficient margin of safety. Almost by definition, you [aren’t going to find too many investments that fit these criteria](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/4/26/portfolio-concentration-how-much-is-optimal) most of the time, so you need to make the ones that you do find count. Or you can do what many others do in investing – make your portfolio look very “safe” by loading up on so many large, well-known companies regardless of price that your returns almost mathematically cannot deviate from the market by too much in either direction. (Hint: For those contemplating the latter approach, save yourself the trouble and [consider a broad low-cost index fund instead](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/1/12/passive-investing-is-an-excellent-default-choice-an-active-investors-view)). + +**2.    Nature of Business Quality** + +***Charlie Munger:*** *If you take the hundred biggest corporations in the United States in, say, 1900, there is exactly one left alive \[among the list of today's 100 biggest\]. But that \[turnover on the list\] didn't happen because everything got weak. It happened because the competition and the change got so strong. (2)* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *It is possible that the new technology platform companies will prove to have durable moats, but we have had trouble thinking through their future economics. We can understand their business now, but less so how they will evolve. We have tried to mitigate that by hiring people who understand these business models better, like Ted and Todd, and by trying to widen our circle of competence. However, we are very comfortable missing out on big returns as long as we have a good batting average on the investments that we do make.* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *Brands and retailers have always struggled for who has the upper hand. Recently the power has been shifting in the direction of the retailers like Amazon and Walmart.* + +Few companies remain dominant forever. You can think back to almost any period in history and find once-dominant businesses that have become greatly diminished over time. Kodak. Dell. Yahoo. Sears. [General Electric](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/11/14/dont-make-these-5-investing-mistakes-that-general-electric-investors-made). The interesting thing is that few would have been able to point to exactly what was going to cause these companies to become less relevant in advance. At the time it frequently seems like some of these businesses are unstoppable. + +And yet most companies have been stopped or at least severely challenged. You have to allow for unknown unknowns – whether it be technological change, regulation or changing consumer preferences. Studying a business’s history is just the first step in [company analysis and valuation](https://youtu.be/wIKEcpL6Xv0) – you then need to think through how things can change, and what factors have already started to deviate from the past. + +In the last two decades the pace of change has accelerated, and the durability of companies’ competitive advantages has diminished. So you should be on guard against paying too much for seemingly entrenched companies and seek investment opportunities where there is plenty of margin of safety for the future to looks somewhat worse than the past and for you to still generate an attractive rate of return on your investment. + +**3.    Rationality vs. Behavioral Biases** + +***Charlie Munger:*** *It's hard to be reasonable. There are a million tricks the human mind plays on its owner. That's what causes stupidity. Think of how many times you've said to yourself, 'Why in the hell did I do that?' (2)* + +***Charlie Munger:*** *People who say they are rational \[should\] know how things work, what works and what doesn't, and why. That's rationality. It doesn't help if you just know what's worked before, because if you know why, then you'll be better at it (2)* + +***Charlie Munger:*** *Both Warren and I feel it's our moral duty to be as rational as we can possibly be. A lot of people who are brilliant in some ways tend to make these utterly asinine decisions in other ways. We both tend to collect the asininities of the world in a kind of checklist. And we try to avoid everything on the checklist. (2)* + +Three ideas here for you to consider to make better decisions: + +1. We are all biased, but we can be more rational if we [systematically defend against behavioral biases](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/1/30/behavioral-defense-in-decision-making) +2. Having a high IQ is not enough to be a good investor, and it can be especially dangerous if it leads to overconfidence (e.g. Long Term Capital Management) +3. You can, and should [use checklists](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/7/29/the-skeptics-checklist) to improve your decision making process. Focus on those things that have had a bad track record of working and avoid doing them. + +**4. Business of Investment Management** + +***Warren Buffett:*** *You should only invest other people’s money if you can have the kind of investors who will stick with you for the long term and not panic and withdraw funds during rough patches in the market.* + +***Charlie Munger:*** *People come out of the womb with the delayed gratification skill - we can’t teach it, we pick the people who have it.* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *You can invest small sums at much higher rates of return than you can large sums.* + +***Charlie Munger:*** *I have seen genius after genius with a good record, and pretty soon they have 30B under management and 2 floors of young men working for them. And away goes the good record.* + +You cannot [invest for the long-term](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2017/3/22/how-and-why-to-be-a-long-term-investor) if your investors have a short-term time horizon. So if you have no idea who your investors are and you sell your services based on short-term performance – guess what? You can talk about being a long-term investor all you want, but in practice you will not be able to actually invest for the long-term if you hit a rough patch, which most investors will. + +The investment management business is the ultimate scale business. Costs are largely fixed, profitability sky-rockets as assets under management grow. I have met very few investors willing to limit the size of their assets so as to maximize the outcome for their investors rather than for themselves. + +For some it’s just blatant greed and not caring about their clients’ outcomes too much. However, I believe that there are many professional investors who do care, but somehow convince themselves that they are immune from the force of gravity that sucks out excess returns once assets grow to be too large that they know affects peers. Maybe they tell themselves that they hired a few new analysts, and that will offset the burden of the larger asset base. Or perhaps they figured out a new strategy to launch alongside with the original. Don’t kid yourselves – for most investing approaches, and especially for fundamental equity investing, managing many billions of dollars is not in your original clients’ best interest. + +**5.  How to Learn and Evolve** + +**Warren Buffett:** *You should expand your circle of competence if you can. I have expanded mine a little over time. But you should be pretty cautious.* + +***Warren Buffett:*** *If you want to grow your investment circle of competence you want to read a lot and study a lot of businesses. It is more competitive now than it was when we started investing, but if you build your circle and have the discipline to be patient and do nothing a lot of the time you can still do well.* + +***Charlie Munger:*** *It is amazing how much we learned over the years. If we hadn't the results wouldn't have been anywhere near as good. We needed to improve at each step to take it to a new level.* + +Buffett is the world’s most successful investor in large part because he was able to [evolve his investing process](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/12/13/what-you-can-learn-from-how-warren-buffetts-investment-process-evolved) where most other would have rested on their laurels and stagnated. It is incredibly humbling to see how these two people, the youngest of whom is well into his 80s, challenge themselves to learn and evolve even today. It is this unquenchable thirst to learn and expand their [circle of competence](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/2018/9/30/circle-of-competence) that makes Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger so amazing. While there are many things about them which many of us will not be able to replicate, learning [how to become the best investor that you can be](https://behavioralvalueinvestor.com/blog/bestinvestingbooks) is something that we can and should all strive for. +To my understanding, gas prices were high because of an increase in demand combined with frictions with the refining process (I’ve heard partially due to lingering effects of Covid). + +What’s been causing gas prices to decrease this quickly? Did the refining issues actually resolve this quickly, or is there something else going on? Citations would be appreciated if possible. +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millions-of-credit-card-customers-cant-pay-their-bills-and-lenders-are-bracing-for-the-impact-2020-04-25 + +Millions of Americans are skipping their credit-card payments as the coronavirus pandemic puts them out of work. Banks and other lenders that for years relied on heavy consumer spending to create big profits are preparing to struggle alongside their customers. + +As the economy spirals, credit-card payments are one of the first places where the effects will show up. They are often the first loans people stop paying when money is tight. They are usually unsecured, which means lenders have little recourse if a borrower stops paying. +I've been thinking about it a lot, and can't seem to find an answer, which annoys me greatly. + +I get that banks allocate capital to the most efficient businesses, they grant loans to buy equipment, they facilitate payments for the average individual, etc. I get that banks are very useful institutions for the economy, but how does them lending money out of thin air to individuals looking to buy homes being a productive thing or adding value to the economy? They literally only artificially raise the price of homes. I also get that it's historically been one of the best ways for a central bank to do QE through lower interest rates, that people use to refinance and get cash on hand with a HELOC or whatever. + +But again, how is it fair that they get to lend money created out of nothing, either through fractional reserve or directly from the central bank, and then lend it at an interest rate? Sure, they must charge a premium for the risk of default and to pay the central bank's borrowing cost, but what about the other portions? And as we've seen in 2008, the thing with the banking system when it comes to mortgage on housing is that they banks are basically immune to systematic risk, because if the whole thing fails, they will need to get bailed out in order for the economic system to keep going. + +And doesn't this system eventually inevitably lead to liquidity issues? By default, by lending money you increase M3 while not necessarily increasing M1. Unless the interest rates lower every couple of years, I believe liquidity crises are inevitable, because loans effectively ask for money that is not even part of the economy. If all the loans were recalled at once, the whole economy would collapse. + +The system feels so fragile and so unstable, and while some properties of this economic system are desirable, its innate stability doesn't seem desirable for Tier 1 civilizations, or economic superpowers like the USA. + +Tl;dr: Why do banks "deserve" to make profits off of loans on residential properties when they add zero value for the borrower, unlike loans for businesses, investments, etc. Residential mortgages seem like a huge ripoff, and artificially raise the price of all homes, which then raises the borrowing amount needed to buy a property, which means more interests to the bank. +We just went under contract on a place that was listed as being 1950 SQ ft. It's actually 2560. Seller and their realtor didn't bother to verify. Basically scored an extra 350k equity due to their lack of due diligence. Today is a good day. Man I love real estate. +I’ve got £26k transferred to me due to a legal battle with an incident I got into when I was younger. I’m 18 now and I’ve been given my compensation, I’d like to make a way I could potentially make this money double it’s size or make it possible for it to help make me make even more money. I’ve just turned 18 so I wouldn’t have any bank problems, and im living with family so I don’t need to pay rent or any other income. I’d like to invest at least £6k and maybe start an ISA? I don’t know anything about investments or anything like that but it’s what I’ve been told to do. I’d like this money to last me a long time, I’m not working, and I’d like to have enough money to spend when I go out with friends/travel. Any help would be appreciated, Thanks! +Alright 🦍, time to let you all in on the next big thing: Vacay. We have huge announcements coming, maybe later today, perhaps this weekend, but you'll want to be in before the news breaks. Don't believe me, check back on Monday if it isn't too late. ⌛️ + +In just our first week, we have become one of the healthiest tokens on the BSC with some of the strongest and most stable growth over that period. + +We are now in active discussions with major players in the travel industry who have expressed exuberance and enthusiasm to join forces with the Vacay team. Who are they? You'll just have to wait and see, but it won't be long now. + +Our early investors are made up of professional businessmen who don't even know how to sell. Seriously, look at that chart. No initial dump after launch whatsoever. 📈 + +5.7M Market Cap with only 2700 holders. Our foundation is built upon professional investors with huge amounts of capital to support this project until it grows into an absolute behemoth of industry. 🌃 + +🦎 We were listed on CoinGecko in under 72 hours! 🦎 + +$20,000 USD (total value) Bora Bora trip and token giveaway! Make sure to check out our brand new website and socials for the details on how you can win! + +We just appointed a new Chief Operating Officer with major connections in the hospitality and casino industries. Please see our website for more details. + +_____________________________________________________ + +Quick list of our accomplishments so far: + +Launch: COMPLETE ✅ +Whitepaper: COMPLETE ✅ +Solidity Audit: SUCCESSFUL ✅ +Techrate Audit: SUCCESSFUL ✅ +3x Letters of Intent from official partners: SIGNED ✅ +Business Utility: CONFIRMED ✅ +CoinGecko: LISTED ✅ +CMC: COMING SOON ⌛️ + +If you've heard enough, here's the contract: 0xA3424FB48b9FA2FF8D3366eD91f36b4cDa7cAdd8 + +_____________________________________________________ + +However, if you really want to know what we're all about, and you should because I've never seen such a professional project on the BSC, read on fellow 🦍: + +What is Vacay (VACAY)? 🌴 + +TL;DR - You will be able to pay for your travel expenses with $VACAY + +Vacay aims to capitalize on the global tourism, travel, and hospitality industry, which is valued at approximately $9.25 trillion dollars, by leveraging the executive management team’s extensive experience and network in the industry to form strategic partnerships with hotel chains, airlines, rental car services and renowned restaurants around the world. This IS the perfect storm of a "reopening play". + +Tokenomics? 💰 + +Original Supply: 1,000,000,000 +50% Burn Before Launch - Current Supply: 500,000,000 +3% Transaction Tax: This tax is sent directly to Liquidity +Please note that our token has a relatively low supply and is NOT deflationary! +Staking will be coming in a future update. + +Who are the Founders of Vacay? 🏦 + +Paul Mulder (CEO), Johan Bleeksma (CFO), and Peter Keijzer (COO) are the founding members of Vacay. + +You can learn more about them on our website. As of the time of this writing, Paul is doxxed with a video, Peter's information is verifiable with google searches, and more info about our founders will be coming soon. + +Where Can I Buy Vacay? 💸 + +🥞https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xA3424FB48b9FA2FF8D3366eD91f36b4cDa7cAdd8 + +🐥 https://t.me/vacayfinance + +💬 https://www.vacay.finance/ + +📄 https://www.vacay.finance/post/whitepaper +Every time inflation goes up by a certain % my already acquired debts value theoretically reduce by the same amount. So, why is this simple equation not understood? Why doesn’t the fed use this to set their target interest rate? +Interest rates have just hit up above 7% **today** with ANZ on the back of the latest NZ inflation figure of 7.2%. + +https://preview.redd.it/g2gjo6xzzou91.png?width=767&format=png&auto=webp&s=3af9ee99f8f26112eedf4a3538eb1fec89598c0a + +The housing market got completely out of control. + +You could barely find a house within an hours drive of a major New Zealand city without having to fork out a million. Now these houses are on the market for 600k and not even selling. + +It is being absolutely being hammered back down now and prices are tumbling back down to earth. + +This chart is from [QV.co.nz](https://QV.co.nz) but it has lagging average price data so it isn't quite showing the extent of it yet. + +https://preview.redd.it/4dhvzeq80pu91.png?width=840&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e91377738a1a41a225c9e86c9aa5dba5f0b52f9 + +Below is the latest REINZ property report. The main reporting agency for New Zealand below is the HPI index, the most accurate NZ has. + +More reports here + +[https://reinz.co.nz/press](https://reinz.co.nz/press) + +https://preview.redd.it/7vy7j2xl1pu91.png?width=1112&format=png&auto=webp&s=33827a90f8a3bf32cb9a34d5733ebd4f33834378 + +Below are median values from REINZ + +https://preview.redd.it/dsw7sqgn1pu91.png?width=1614&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f1f3aee0edb52ac73c1860fd01dd60fa93802e9 + +Below is the local website [trademe.co.nz](https://trademe.co.nz) where most people in NZ buy and sell houses and people are shaving hundreds of thousands off every month trying to get rid of them. I took these from my own notification watchlist. + +https://preview.redd.it/a4d8lehp1pu91.jpg?width=4300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e4d4e81ccf9630b3336e5590120eaa9b4c0e8b0a + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kuissizp1pu91.jpg?width=4300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51ec92b64a9dbf707a0a12b7f39550c0da188081 + +I thought I would make this post as a lot of people here in Australia don't keep an eye on the NZ housing market. +Hi guys + +Trading apps are everywhere, crypto is being sold all over the gaff, what is going on? + +There is a massive push for the average person to start investing atm, why? Watching CNBC today, the pundits literally said, it doesn’t matter what you invest in at the moment, or for the next two years, just invest in anything, you’ll win! + +Personally I think the CNBC lot have ulterior motives, but what is the economic benefit of more people investing in the stock markets? I’m guessing it means businesses can grow, but if anyone could point out why there is such encouragement to invest at the moment would be really really helpful. + +Thanks guys +Hello everyone. I've been pondering a lot about the state of the world economy, I'm not very educated in the subject, but I get an impression that economic turmoil will eventually hit us, therefore my objective is to become educated on how to invest my money in a way that will minimize the loss of purchasing power in the future. (Assuming that my concerns are justified) + +I have: + +* Around EUR16k in the bank +* €3200 net income, minus monthly living expenses I'm left with €1900 +* No debt +* No outstanding expenses in the foreseeable future +* 26 years old + +What are some ways that I can invest my money appropriately, I've been considering an algorithm/human based platform [ROBIN (Not Robinhood)](https://www.deutsche-bank.de/pk/lp/robin.html?kid=e.0400.00.15&gclid=Cj0KCQjwvYSEBhDjARIsAJMn0lgpoROTvx4Wp1sbl8YR_f8wWuIazPG7BIPGDjLlDINZBMpM6dFeBmcaAiTaEALw_wcB#parsys-columncontrol-columnControlCol2Parsys-text_copy_copy_copy_), I've also been thinking about investing 10% -15% in Bitcoin and holding 5k in the bank. + +(I'm ok with holding my assets for long term 15 years or so) + +&#x200B; + +I would love to hear any advice on the matter. + +Have you been in a similar scenario in your life before? + +How would you invest your money? + +What are some resources that I can look into? + +Does the above give you a clear-ish picture of my economical circumstances? + +&#x200B; + +Thank you for any advice :) +Who is responsible? + +I go over to check for a water leak and discover the fill line inside the master toilet tank broke and the float valve didn’t stop flow so the toilet was running non stop for a month++ + +I will replace the entire toilet tomorrow on my dime + +When I spoke to the tenant I ask if the appliances were working okay, the toilets, any leaky faucet. They answered “no”. + +The toilet water running was easy to hear when I went to inspect the property. +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/active-fund-managers-trail-the-sp-500-for-the-ninth-year-in-a-row-in-triumph-for-indexing.html + +Active managers who claim that they would do better during periods of heightened volatility are going to have to find another argument. + +For the ninth consecutive year, the majority (64.49 percent) of large-cap funds lagged the S&P 500 last year. + +After 10 years, 85 percent of large cap funds underperformed the S&P 500, and after 15 years, nearly 92 percent are trailing the index. + [https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-loeffler-coronavirus-georgia-insider-trading-reopen-20200416-6r4mmyd4rbduvfp2623en256vm-story.html](https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-loeffler-coronavirus-georgia-insider-trading-reopen-20200416-6r4mmyd4rbduvfp2623en256vm-story.html) + +&#x200B; + + + +A Georgia senator who’s accused of insider trading on coronavirus information has been named to President Trump’s task force on reopening America. + +Sen. Kelly Loeffler says she’s looking forward to pitching in on the panel to help “get Americans back to work safely." + +Loeffler, a strong Trump supporter, is one of several GOP lawmakers flagged for making suspicious stock transactions shortly after receiving official briefings about the staggering potential impact of the pandemic. + +A wealthy investor, Loeffler made millions of dollars of trades in stocks at a time when the public, and other shareholders, were in the dark about the extent of the economic carnage the virus was expected to cause. + +She contends that she did nothing wrong and says all the trades were made by a financial adviser who knew nothing about her inside info on coronavirus. + +But she later moved to sell all her holdings in stock of individual companies, which rivals called a “guilty plea” to accusations of improper trades. + +Besides Loeffler, GOP Sen. Richard Burr (R-North Carolina) is also under serious pressure to resign over coronavirus insider trading accusations. + +He is reportedly facing a criminal investigation for dumping stocks after getting a secret briefing about the pandemic and while he reassured the public that there was little to worry about. +Those of us that have IRAs, are in trusts, foreign countries, etc. are not able to DRS either as easily, or at all. + +I'm seeing a deluge of posts recently that are basically blaming the victims if we miss out on MOASS somehow because we didn't direct register our shares. + +ALL OF US should receive the full benefits of being a shareholder. Put the blame on the brokers and the system for even needing to DRS, not on us poor bastards that have no choice but to buy through them. + +This is divisive and FUD, frankly, and it's disappointing to see on this sub. It's totally fine to encourage people that can to DRS, but it's way over the line to ridicule and blame those that can't. +$FUCKELON - 24Hrs Hold - 250k Mcap + + ----------------------------------------------- + +🤬$FUCKELON is a positive deflationary token executed for success. + +🏅The main approach behind FkElon is to offer a decentralized transactions system which operate on the Binance smart chain (BSC). + +✅The road way for FkElon is set by market fluctuations, + +but the idea it runs on begs FkElon to succeed. FkElon is a deflationary + + ----------------------------------------------- + +🔥On each transaction, a tax of 5% will be shared to the Hodler + +and a further 2% will be burnt + +hence incentivizing holders to hodl and decreasing the supply overtime. + +As the supply decreases, the scarcity of the token increases. + +This inversely-proportional relationship constitutes a supply and demand model. + +Furthermore, there is no limit as to how many tokens can be burnt. + +Without a burning limit you know what happens next. 🔥 + + ----------------------------------------------- + +🚀Transaction network which operate on the Binance smart chain (BSC). + +🚀 Listed on Pancake Swap. + +🚀 Flat and smooth total token supply. + +🚀 Deflatory system to remove risk of inflation. + +🚀 Liquidity available for holders, 2.5% of every transaction. + +----------------------------------------------- + +🚀 FkEl0n Swap Slippage Tolerance on Pancake swap is 8 % + +----------------------------------------------- + +🚀 Telegram : https://t.me/fkelonmusk +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Yes, I know that I can plant 300 trees whether it gets to $300 this week or not. I plant trees pretty much every week. But most of those are from seed on public property and they eventually get removed or die or get eaten by an animal. + +In this case I know the owner, will put up fencing, and plant other things to distract/deter the animals. It’s in a dry area so I’ve even been doing some terraforming to retain more water. And tbh I need my ITM call to print hard to help fund the project. + +I’ll be planting my favorite tree, the honey locust. (Ah, what a beautiful tree she is. 🥰) Theyre a pioneer species that will prepare this land for a diverse edible forest to come. + +Sorry you won’t get to see my butthole. But if GME wins this week then so will some wildlife! Wish us all luck. +Landed myself in a bit of an awkward situation, as my SIL recently asked me if she could borrow £5-7k which then went to £10k when she thought I seemed comfortable agreeing on £7k. Apparently it's so my brother and her can get onto the property ladder. A few times after that, she's casually implied I could push the amount to £10k and I've had to firmly say no. Oh, and my brother doesn't know about this arrangement because he didn't want to ask me for it - so she'd pretend that she'd borrowed it from a friend. + +I initially said yes (foolishly) thinking why not help out a family member who has been generally good to me - however, that little sly 'so you CAN lend us £10k then' action is a huge turnoff for me. Then there's the fact it's a secret agreement, and that I've never lent this person money before so have no idea of their track record. I also can see this going sour.. + +Having mulled it over last night, I've decided I'm much more comfortable lending £3k max. It's an amount I can tolerate losing. How do I cushion this when telling her about my change of mind? Obviously it's less than half the requested amount, and whilst I don't owe it to her, I don't want to sour the relationship. + +UPDATE: Ahh! Thank you ALL so much for the feedback, I can't respond to everyone so here's a collective appreciative nod. I did the uncomfortable thing of backing out, it just felt right and I couldn't shake how uneasy the whole thing made me - as you all pointed out, it was so shady and I could just see it turn into a horror story further down the line. I'm a bit of a wuss so I cushioned it with 'maybe I'll be able to help at some point in the future'. Her reaction was quite awkward, she just went quiet and frowned, and then said 'fine yeah leave it then' to which I just shrugged and said sorry, hope you manage to raise the finance soon. It was kinda awkward after that, but if anything that's further proof that lending was never a good idea here. Let's hope she never asks me again! Shudder. +EDIT: FAQ bottom of the post + +**Update: 6th December 2021 Monday (Australia) - Money received in my bank, shit thats fast. Screenshot and CS transaction posted below** + + +I hate to do this but it had to be done for the greater good, stop spewing bullshit about how hard it is to sell on Computershare, my limit order literally went through in **10 fucking minutes.** + +**(Now I realised when I check the pending transaction the status was already on "Awaiting Settlement", at the time I wasn't sure if that meant the order was executed. So in reality it can execute instantly, however I didn't screenshot/video it so we'll just go with "10 minutes" when the confirmation email arrived)** + +I'm happy to provide further proof to mods if needed. + +Proof: + +Email notification after placing order: \*NOTE: I'm from AUSTRALIA hence the time difference\* + +**Removed reference number / account names** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/3qiowei05a381.png?width=1244&format=png&auto=webp&s=c33d456041a8ecbaec4b925ed35bf11d7becc5a1 + +Literally 10 minutes later: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9r5xz4w15a381.png?width=1355&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed5cbfaa90ed63b8c6f096cad4f358499422c587 + +Pending Transaction Details in CS + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wbu2zep25a381.png?width=908&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d55c45581089450b5aa8de0e9bb405aa4a899c1 + +**Hope this will stop the Computershare FUD, don't award me - just UPVOTE to spread the words** + +**FAQ***1. Why are you doing this?* + +I noticed there are still a lot of questions/uncertainty/claims on Reddit and Twitter regarding selling on Computershare. So I thought what better way than to verify it for myself and the community. + +*2. "Lol no1 is doubting the sell speed of CS, its about how much you can sell it for" / "wow big deal you sold 1 single share outside of MOASS"* + +You think your frontrunning, PFOF mf brokerages who turned off the buy button / "typo" extra 12 million shares to short would let you sell anywhere near/above Computershare's limit during the MOASS? (Which they are working to increase as per AMA) fucking lol. + +*3. Where does the money go?*You have 2 options: + +A. Receive the proceedings via Cheque which will be sent to you via physical mail (You can also request for courier service for a fee) + +B. Direct Bank Transfer is the option I selected, I will update this post when the funds arrives in my bank account. Keep in mind it may take longer because I am from Australia. + +NOTE - thank you u/Jtdesi123 **bank accounts need to be added for at least 10 days for them to bank transfer any less they will mail out a check - this information was given over the phone by Computershare** + +*4. You going to buy that share back?* +Yep, via IEX and re-DRS with extras. (Will update post as proof) + +5. What are the fees? +See below transaction for one off fees, imo insignificant amount when you sell post MOASS since its not a % base fee. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Update 6th December 2021:** +The follow amount is in AUD, my bank charged me extra $14 AUD or so for international fee + +[Bank Transaction - removed reference\/BSB for privacy ](https://preview.redd.it/7fdtjpk83v381.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7ffa1e2357030b45b8e8a208b5fac5c5dee77c0) + +Computershare Transaction, including Fees showing: + + +[Transaction Detail of the sale](https://preview.redd.it/prueuwtm3v381.png?width=1189&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4cebd147a876a382a9e8ab6ed70535b30c1a397) + +&#x200B; + + +The LunaDoge token ($LOGE) takes the deflationary tokenomics of Safemoon and fuses it with the novelty of Dogecoin. LunaDoge operates just like SafeMoon, Shiba Inu, Elongate, and Moonrat with regards to a quadrillion dollar token supply and deflationary nature. + +LunaDoge is a fork of MoonRat and SafeMoon. Both projects have been audited by CertiK, assuring users that there is no backdoor in the code for the team to scam its investors. $LOGE is currently in it’s infancy and is only available on PancakeSwap🥞. + +Why does this token have Moon potential??? + +✅Hold and Earn + +· Every transaction incurs a 10% fee · 5% distributed to hodlers (LOGE will automatically get added to your wallet) · 5% permanently added to liquidty creating a steady rising floor Anti-Whale measures · Transactions greater than 0.5% of supply rejected to prevent Whale manipulation + +✅Liquidity Locked + +· Team tokens (24% of total supply) locked using third party provider DXSALE · Team tokens RE-LOCKED as of May 5th · 15% for 6 months, 5% for 3 months; 4.7% for 14 days which will be re-locked again · 1% burn every 2 weeks to a dead address which will create an ever decreasing supply of LOGE + +✅100% Community Driven + +· LunaDoge is fully transparent · Whitepaper · All team and LP tokens have been locked · Every trade automatically contributes to generating liquidity + +✅Bi-weekly Token Burn + +· Every second week the team will burn 1% of total $LOGE supply from their own tokens · This coincides with team token re-locks + +✅Marketing and Branding + +· They have a growing community on Telegram, Twitter, and Instagram (links at the bottom) · This is a key element in the success of any product · The graphic design team has developed an appealing logo · Community contests such as a meme competition (running until May.8th) · They've partnered with multiple influencers to build brand awareness + +✅What’s in the Pipeline? + +· Coinmarketcap listing (pending) · Coingecko Listing (pending) · External audit · Website updates · LunaDoge Mars Program · Cross-chain integration · Token farming · Partnership rollout · Community growth + +This team has continued to demonstrate their commitment to the LONGEVITY of this project and have continually increased my investment confidence through their actions! Its holders are put first and that seems to be a rarity given the recent landscape of startup projects. + +Do your own DD and let me know what you think! Hopefully we’ll take a ride to the moon together 🚀 + +[https://lunadoge.finance/](https://lunadoge.finance/) +AT&T - 5% dividend yield +Altria - 7.79% dividend yield +American Eagle - 6.12% dividend yield + +Just a few but there are plenty more. With AT&T you’d only need 2% or so stock price increase and you’d be beating average S&P performance. + +I haven’t done a deep dive yet, but on the surface AT&T seems like a typical Buffet style value play. + +Thoughts? Reasons this wouldn’t be a decent strategy given the current state of the market? + +Edited because my AT&T dividend yield was way off, 5%, not 9% +I purchased my first house as a single parent in September 2022. I had the usual building and pest inspection done, apparently everything was fine. Since I’ve moved in, I have had nothing but problems and it is quite obvious the building and pest inspector was incompetent because all the obvious issues with the house wouldn’t have just appeared overnight. + +This whole experience has cost me thousands already and there is still a few thousand I have to spend in the upcoming weeks to somewhat rectify the issues. + +I have significant buyer’s remorse and just want to sell, I have no good memories of this experience. + +How long would you suggest I hold onto the house before I put it on the market. Honestly I would put it on today but I know that isn’t realistic or smart, so I would appreciate any kind feedback or insight. + +Please be kind, I’m already under a significant amount of stress. + +EDIT: I just want to thank everyone who has taken the time to comment and be kind/offer advice etc. +It’s times like this that is really nice to see a bunch of strangers collectively come together to help each other out. Your comments all mean more to me than you’ll ever know and have made me feel a lot better about the situation. Thank you all again & I hope everyone has a wonderful New Year! +Hi everyone, + +I thought I'd share my recent experience searching for a new job. If I was better with spreadsheets maybe I could have done some visualizations. + +&#x200B; + +**My Background** + +* Age 27 & living in Sydney - Applying for roles in Sydney +* Australian Citizen - Born/raised in Sydney +* Bachelors Degree in Business Information Systems +* Working in a very large (10k+ employees) company since 2016 and have previous work experience during uni +* Applying for admin type roles - Admin Assistant, Team Assistant, Executive Assistant or similar + +I've been looking for a new role for a while as I really didn't enjoy what I was doing previously. I was a BA in IT, but mid last year I was able to move internally in my company into an admin role. + +I've been applying for jobs on and off for about a year and a half now (Also applied to uni but decided not to go through with it), but only starting tracking seriously in around January 2021 when I didn't get into the course I wanted and so got serious about needing a change. + +&#x200B; + +**Application Outcomes** + +* *Applications made between 10/01/2021 and 12/03/2021.* +* *Applications were for roles primarily in the Sydney CBD, North Sydney and Western Sydney* +* *The organizations were varied and included Government, Finance, Insurance, and Legal services.* + +|||| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Total Applications|39|| +|Rejected - No Response|17|| +|Rejected - Response|18|| +|Rejected after additional screening|1|| +|Interviews Offered|3|| +|Positions Offered|2|| + +&#x200B; + +**Response Times** + +|||| +|:-|:-|:-| +|No Response|17|| +|Shortest Response Time|Same Day|| +|Longest Response Time|36 Days|| +|Average Number of Days|16 Days|| +|||| + +&#x200B; + +**Salary Advertised (Including Super)** + +*I only applied for roles where the advertised salary was above 60k, or I believed it would be lower. I did see some ridiculously low advertisements such as 30k for a Full Time role aimed at a school leaver, or Assistant Type roles where you would be expected to book their personal holidays on your weekends and use a specific coffee machine...* + +*\*When I say low and high, I am referring to the advertised salary range.* + +|||| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Advertised salary|22|| +|Did not advertise salary|17|| +|Average Low\*|$71,800|| +|Average High\*|$78,380|| +|Average Salary|$75,075|| +|Median Salary|$74,000|| +|||| + +&#x200B; + +**Offers** + +|Job 1|60k (inc. super)|Declined this as I felt the company was too small so there wouldn't be career growth. I'd only been applying seriously for around 2 weeks at that point so I thought something else would come along.| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Job 2|80k (inc. super)|Accepted this role.| + +&#x200B; + +**Summary** + +* Could I have applied for more jobs? **Absolutely**. I have anxiety and some weeks it just felt like rejection after rejection so I stopped looking. I got rejection emails for at least 2 different jobs twice. Some days, especially in January there would just be no good jobs advertised. +* The 3rd interview I went to, I withdrew at the end of the interview. Wasn't the right fit for me, but the interview was good experience. +* Going back through my inbox I have for job applications, 94 appear to be dated 2020. I remember going to a video interview for one during the first Covid lockdown, and they ghosted me afterwards. I don't have any data on those about salary or when I got responses back so I've just used the stuff I actually tracked recently. There would also have been 2-3 applications internally with the organisation I'm now leaving. + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR;** Applying for jobs is the worst and I really hope I don't hate my new job. I hope my data is mildly insightful. +Couple year lurker, sparse commenter, and first time poster, but I thought I’d try and give back to the community that helped me out when I was first getting started in the form of my real estate journey and what little I’ve learned so far. I am by no means an expert at real estate investing and I am relatively new to the game, so take everything to come with a grain of salt. + +First, just to touch on my background (which will intentionally be left very vague for privacy reasons), grew up middle / middle-lower class, suburbs, two amazing working full-time parents with high school level education. High school was never my cup of tea and college options were limited, so I decided to join the military. Fast forward to an honorable discharge and using the Post 9/11 GI Bill to graduate from a no-name college. I networked my ass off to get in investment banking at a bulge bracket bank that paid >$100k in a VHCOL area. Left to get a higher paying job around \~$250k shortly after. At the time when I decided to get into real estate investing, I was making \~$300k pre-tax and had \~$350k in a personal trading account, another $150k in my 401k with zero debt. I have never been focused on absolutely maximizing my income or savings rate. I enjoy living nicely, travelling nicely, and eating nicely. YOLO. + +Investing in my immediate area typically requires a metric shit ton of capital (or very creative thinking/networking) or competing against those who have it, so I headed a couple hours outside in order to get my feet wet. In the beginning I was not sure what type of real estate investing strategy I wanted, but chose the below criteria at first: + +1. Invest in properties that were cash flow positive from day one +2. Investment would have to achieve at least 20% ROIC after all expenses and PITI. I don’t include home price appreciation, as I believe that’s not guaranteed and more speculation than anything and principal paydown is just icing on the cake for me +3. Turn-key properties are preferred, but don’t mind a bit of deferred maintenance if it’ll achieve a good purchase price (and subsequently a better return) + +With my criteria in-place, I built up a rolodex of individuals I would need if I were to be successful at managing properties hours away from me (realtor, attorney, inspectors, handyman, lenders, etc.). And then I hit the ground running. + +Since I was still working full time and had a pretty busy schedule I knew I wanted my first property to be turn-key, so I chose a SFH that was recently flipped, but selling for a good price since the property had been on the market for a while and the seller was also over-levered due to multiple projects and needed liquidity. The property was in a Class B neighborhood with strong rental demand. Home price appreciation had been mixed in this area. I knew that the home would rent quickly to students of the multiple colleges nearby or some of the commercial properties that were also close (and those were exactly the people who ended up applying). I actually got a pretty good turnout of applicants and settled on a first year resident at the local hospital. Regarding background checks, as long as they weren’t ex-convicts and made 3x rent, I wasn’t that picky (I 100% no longer think this way due to Property 2). Below are the numbers (rounded dollars to avoid specifics): + +**Property 1:** Listed $150k / Paid $140k (appraised for the same value) / 20% down, 3.125% 30-year fixed, no points / Monthly Rent: $1,600 / Monthly Cash Flow (after PITI): $700 / Est. Year 1 ROIC: 22% (doesn’t include principal paydown) + +After realizing my risk tolerance could be a bit higher, I went for a Class C triplex in a Class C neighborhood. The property was around 100 years old and looks like it has been neglected for the past 25. However, the bones were solid and I told myself I will renovate the units one-by-one when the tenants turnover (all are still in-place and paying rent; however, never on time). Below are the numbers: + +**Property 2:** Listed $165k / Paid $150k (appraised for $165k) / 20% down, 2.75% 30-year fixed, no points) / Monthly Rent $2,525 / Monthly Cash Flow (after PITI): \~$1,000 / Est. Year 1 ROIC 35-40% (doesn’t include principal paydown; range given depending on maintenance) + +After figuring out how this whole real estate game worked, I decided to take a little more risk and buy a pricey triplex near me and live in one unit while renting out the other two. This was a turn-key triplex and I decided to utilize my VA loan for maximum leverage, no PMI and low rate. + +**Property 3:** Listed $900k / Paid $775k (appraised for $725k mid-COVID) / $50k cash out of pocket to cover the difference, $725k loan 100% LTV, 2.75% 30-year fixed, 1 point lender credit to me) / 2-unit Monthly Rent $5,200 / 2-unit Monthly Cash Flow (after PITI): \~$600 + +Property 4 was where I decided to change my investment strategy and try my luck with finding vacant value-add properties. The house had the same layout and size (3 bd, 1 ba, 1,700 sq ft) as Property 1. The bathroom needed a full gut renovation, as well as the kitchen, carpet in bedrooms, LVP in common spaces, new paint, and the outside trim needed to be scraped and re-painted. Below are the numbers: + +**Property 4:** Listed $145k / Paid $110k (appraised for $115k) / Initially 20% down ($4,500 after refinance), 4.50% 30-year fixed, no points) / Renovation Budget: $7.5k - $10k / Market Comps $155k / Monthly Rent $1,600 / Monthly Cash Flow (after PITI): \~$500 / Est. Year 1 ROIC 125%+ (doesn’t include principal paydown) + +My experience has been interesting so far. I've learned a lot, but still have much more to learn. I believe going forward I will look more towards value-add properties, given the returns. Below are a few points I have learned along the way. + +Disclaimer: Real estate investing will vary by individual investor and there is no “one size fits all” approach, so do not take these as gospel or 100% tailored to your specific situation. + +1. **Wait for good tenants!** Real estate investing can be scary when you know bills are coming due and you have an empty unit. It can seem like it’s taking forever and you’ll want to sign the first person that has a pulse and a paycheck. Resist this temptation! Good tenants are worth their weight in gold. Someone who leaves you alone and takes care of the property when you’re self-managing is the closest you will get to truly having “passive income”. +2. **Don’t quit your day job.** Because I used traditional financing, it was important to maintain my W-2 income. Real estate was new and interesting to me, so it quickly started gathering a lot of my attention, but it’s important not to forget where the majority of your bacon comes from. Especially since that money is what made real estate investing possible (for me) in the first place. +3. **Be creative and aggressive with financing.** It seems like the largest barrier to entry for a lot of people on this sub is getting capital to start. If that is the case, I would strongly suggest searching any comment made by u/GringoGrande (I hope I did this right) or search “Seller Financing” or “Owner financing” in the forums. You will find a treasure-trove of knowledge and information. If you decide to use traditional lender financing, call local lenders in the area and pit them against each other. When one lender beats the other, go back to that lender and ask them to beat the other rate given. +4. **Just Do It…. Yourself (at least in the beginning).** I personally think there is tremendous value in knowing a little bit of everything, even if you’re not a master in anything. Having a base knowledge of searching for houses, securing financing, negotiating deals, closing, placing tenants, structuring leases, etc. is all best learned by doing, making mistakes, and then correcting those mistakes next time around. And that can only happen if you get involved, learn and (for some things) self-manage. Learn how much repairs cost by doing them yourself (YouTube has a video for practically everything), or shadow a professional if it something like electrical or plumbing and you don’t want to risk messing it up. This will help prevent you from being taken for a ride by contractors / professionals later on down the road. +5. **Out of state properties.** Take what I say with a grain of salt, because I have never invested out of state and I have heard plenty of success stories of people who have. However, if you’re new to real estate, I would strongly suggest investing in your own backyard. At most, I’m currently 2 hours away from my properties and even that feels too far sometimes. The only way I became comfortable with the distance is because I have a list of people I can depend on if there is an emergency and I need someone ASAP. I couldn’t (and don’t want to) imagine being in the situation where I’m a plane ride away and an issue arises with the tenant/property and the management company is non-responsive or combative. +6. **Paddle your own canoe.** After the military I was half a decade older than my average co-worker and when you’re in a competitive field like finance, it could really take a toll on your self esteem seeing kids making half a million at the same age you were graduating college. You have to accept that there are going to be people who are more successful than you. At school, at work, at real estate and at life. Everyone’s story is different and it doesn’t mean they’re any better off in the grand scheme of things. Do not get caught up in some rat race and take on more risk or leverage than you are comfortable with or that you can financially handle. Go at your own pace. Paddle your own canoe. Competition is good, but you’ll be better off if you save it for sports. +I see loads of stories here of people in their teens / early 20’s with $50-100K in the bank, houses, cars, successful businesses. + +I’d love to hear stories of people who didn’t get serious about their finances until later in life and have achieved lots. +This poll is meant only for the holders and long-term traders who sold everything, or nearly everything below $150 (this year). I'm genuinely curious about your circumstances, and your reasoning behind this move. + +So if you aren't a day trader and sold almost all your ETH below $150 during this bear market, please pick the option below that best describes your circumstances and thinking - why did you sell and how much did you have left in ETH compared to your income level and wealth? + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/a400q7) +I see posts about keeping “good debt” (ex:mortgage) and invest the extra $ instead of paying it off, but does that advice depend on your interest rate? + +I have a 2.24% 15 year mortgage. I can pay it off in 10 years if I keep paying $1500/month. Should I do that or invest the extra few hundred in SCHD instead? + +SCHD’s current dividend yield stands at 2.9… but they have expenses too. I don’t understand all the math. And then there’s the whole dividend component to consider as well…. It SEEMS SCHD or another low cost ETF sounds like the better long term option than going crazy paying off my mortgage… what would you do? Can y’all help me out? + +Edit- I do invest $400/month in dividend stocks already but could do $700 if I quit paying extra toward my mortgage. +Long time coder, long time stock dabbler (buy and hold). I have been wanting to build a trading bot for long time. I started reading Unknown Market Wizards (incredible book series) and immediately realized I have no clue on strategy and proper risk management. The code is the easy part, the strategy is the hard part. + +What are the top 5 best resources you would recommend someone should use to get started in developing an algorithm? I am primarily interested in cryptocurrencies. + +It seems like there is no silver bullet, e.g. TA alone doesn't work, Machine learning overfits, etc. What does one need to learn to create a decent strategy? +I see this over and over in my family and friends and ironically in r/personalfinance. " I want to live my life, not save every penny", that sort of thing. + +**It is possible to save while still doings fun things, eating nice meals and traveling.** When someone makes it a this-or-that situation I think they are making excuses for poor spending habits or budgeting. Sometimes deferring gratification leads to the ability to have MORE fun and freedom once you've established yourself financially. I'm NOT talking about waiting till retirement BTW, im talking about getting a budget setup, getting some investments going, getting some interest coming in, paying off debt that costs you interest etc. Interest is money you could be using for fun, that you instead are paying to some huge corporation. What I'm describing isn't some kind of punishment, it's a way to be more intentional and to always make sure the things you are spending on are helping you attain your goals and add lasting fulfillment to your life. It's the ability to buy things at their actual cost because you can get a decent interest rate. + +I don't make insane amounts of money, but I'm careful and try not to buy things I don't need. I always ask how many times a year I will use something before buying it. I think about how small amounts add up to be a big amount over time. My family mocks me saying things like " he still has his first $1." Basically saying I'm cheap. They all buy whatever they want when they want it. They are in debt, stuck in life and unfulfilled by the very items keeping them there. Once you get on the roller coaster of spending on credit cards for instant gratification, it can be VERY hard to get off. + +I'm not saying this in a judgemental way, I've just seen so many people I care about struggle financially because of this mindset. I've seen it limit their ability to see the world and follow their dreams. Seeing it being perpetuated in a place designed to help people get their shit together is kind of brutal to watch. + +If you are a young person coming here for advice, this is the best advice I can give: Briefly defer your gratification. Half the time the thing you "must have" seems pointless if you just sit on it for a week. Avoid impulses and focus on experiences and items that will last and wear well over time. Once you have established a solid financial foundation, your ability to go places and do things will quickly outpace the friends and family around you that are focused on attaining every minor impulse and paying off the associated debts. + + + +**TL:DR You can be financially together and still have a fun!** + +**EDIT: New post showing examples: +https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/5n3zej/small_changes_can_help_you_save_and_have_fun_here/** + + +So to make a long story short, a week and a half ago I packed a small bag while my violently abusive gf was at work, not knowing where I was going, completely broke, and having no support to lean on. It has not been easy since then. I've slept in a very very unsafe shelter a couple nights, and when it wasn't freezing I slept either on a park bench or on the side of the train tracks. + +So I spent the last however many days putting in job app after job app after job app. Had an interview at Target this morning and they JUST called me back to start training in a couple days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! + +My next step is getting the right clothes to wear because I don't have the colors I'm required to wear there. + +I've had people suggest to go down to Home Depot before they open and sometimes contractors will give out a days work, but I've tried that three times recently and it didn't work, and I'm not sure if it'd prudent to use the time and energy to try that again. Should I?? + +I've had people suggest standing on the corner with a sign asking for help. Does this actually work?? Is it illegal?? The last thing I want is to be arrested for doing something that I didn't know was wrong. + +Any other brain storm ideas like that I'm willing to try. Really willing to try anything and everything so throw them at me! + +Ahhhhhhhhhhh the light at the end of the tunnel might finally be showing up!!!!!!! +u/leisure_rules has pointed me to the OCC - something that I should have been taking a look at since the beginning of my journey into the workings of the Fed. + +So I decided to look deeper. OP: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocfcfi/occ\_rule\_in\_effect\_7121\_net\_stable\_funding\_ratio/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ocfcfi/occ_rule_in_effect_7121_net_stable_funding_ratio/) + +**TLDR start** \- and this is not short, as the document is close to 10k pages, with this section of 102 pages alone; + +After the recent test, it looks like the Fed shat themselves. A new rule was rushed to be introduced by the self-regulating fucks for the banks and split NFSR into 4 categories of application. Despite the rule having been in plan since 2016 and kind of in play, but has a ton of mentions of ‘08 crash. + +[the Fed looking back at the '08 crash - I'll fucking do it again!](https://preview.redd.it/gpshz8d4mw871.png?width=808&format=png&auto=webp&s=5217e1c67fed03fb4076ac08fdc6b6661210b8d3) + +Only the Category II of the banks have submitted a comment that the fucks in Category II will have a **fire sale** with such strict requirements. Rule passed for more stringent reporting just after the Fed passed the stress test for the banks, allowing them to buy back shares ($12Bn worth, likely the $12Bn that they got from gouging their customers on overdraft fees - no joke ($11Bn in 2019)). + +Because it is instituted on July 1st, 2021 - allowing the banks to have 10 business days to provide a response/plan on how to deal with their shitty NFSR ratio - we are likely looking at a few weeks if the NFSR ration is rated as bad in some of the banks. But we can expect some movement in the market next week - real movement. + +Now these agencies are no longer going to count derivatives towards a positive ASF (Available Stable Funding) factor. Further, RSF (Required Stable Funding) factor is set to 100% for the derivatives. This is a double-banana worthy of Rick! + +Look at the equation (sauce to u/leisure_rules) : + +[NSFR Ratio calculation](https://preview.redd.it/06e8x7immw871.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=02ab003204ff3a22949659661339635e9a41fbdf) + +**What is ASF:** + +* Sum of carrying values of the banking organization’s liabilities and regulatory capital, each multiplied by a standardized weighting (ASF factor) ranging from 0 to 100%. + +Here’s the chart of proposed ASF factors: [https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-363](https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-363) + +**What is RSF:** + +* Sum of the carrying values of its assets, each multiplied by a standardized weighting (RSF factor) ranging from 0 to 100% to reflect the relative need for funding over a 1 year horizon based on liquidity characteristics of the asset +* PLUS RSF amounts based on the banking organization’s committed facilities and derivatives exposure (CRIAND!!!) + +Here’s the chart of the RSF factors: [https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-481](https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-481) + +**TLDR end**; + +&#x200B; + +I’d like to put together a summary of what the fuck is going on - its all in plain English, and I suggest to read it yourself to gain more wrinkles: + +**Introduction** + +The OCC, the Fed, and OCC (agencies) are looking into a 2016 rule to establish NSFR (net stable funding ratio) for any institution with >=$10Bn of consolidated assets. + +Another two proposals that were being looked into are: + +* scope of NSFR +* Complex Institution Liquidity Monitoring Report (FR 2052a) - to basically get self-regulating information from the banks (Smells like Goldman’s F3 to anyone?) + +**Background** + +In the ‘08 crash, the banks had issues with risk management, specifically how the banks managed their liabilities to fund their assets. + +Further, there was an overreliance on short-term, less-stable funding - no shit, they were leveraged to shits. + +In response, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) created 2 liquidity standards: + +1. **Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)** \- for high net cash outflows in a period of stress +2. **NFSR** \- for banks to not be taking handies behind Wendy's after using their credit cards to play the casino + +Part of the LCR rule was for the banks to hold a specific amount of unencumbered high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) that can be easily converted into cash to meet payments for a 30-day stress period. + +Along with the “poorly done” Dodd-Frank Act, the board (Fed) decided to adopt an “enhanced prudential standards rule, which established general risk management, liquidity risk management, and stress testing requirements for certain bank holding companies and foreign banking organizations.” + +# PROBLEM: The framework never addressed the relationship between a banking organization’s funding profile and its composition of assets and off-balance commitments. NO SHIT! + +# ANOTHER PROBLEM: The fucking rule was passed AFTER the recent stress test! + +Here’s where the margin debt comes in - being 2x that of ‘00 and ‘08 crashes. Coupled with u/Criand DD - means the OCC is realizing how big of a shitshow it has become, and was never dealt with until Retail started making money and exposing their shit. + +[Margin Debt w\/ S&P500](https://preview.redd.it/h6z4tnfdnw871.png?width=1238&format=png&auto=webp&s=2379718666e122b78046c5be4ee487a7df8ec057) + +**Overview of the Proposed Rule and Proposed Scope of Application** + +* The Proposed Stable Funding Requirement + +1. In June ‘16, comments were invited on the rule +2. Rule was generally consistent with the Basel NSFR, but has some characteristics of U.S. market +3. Proposed rule: maintaining ratio of ASF equal or greater than the minimum funding needs (RSF) over a 1 year horizon to be minimum 1.0. + +**The Final Rule** + +* The final rule assigns a zero percent RSF factor to unencumbered level 1 liquid asset securities and certain short-term secured lending transactions backed by level 1 liquid asset securities +* The final rule provides more favorable treatment for certain affiliate sweep deposits and non-deposit retail funding +* The final rule permits cash variation margin to be eligible to offset a covered company's current exposures under its derivatives transactions even if it does not meet all of the criteria in the agencies' supplementary leverage ratio rule (SLR rule). In addition, variation margin received in the form of rehypothecatable level 1 liquid asset securities also would be eligible to offset a covered company's current exposures +* The final rule reduces the amount of a covered company's gross derivatives liabilities that will be assigned a 100 percent RSF factor + +**Application of the final rule.** + +The agencies have decided to break down the application/companies into 4 categories: + +* **Category I**: US global systemically important banks (GSIBs) and any of their depository institution subsidiaries with >=$10Bn in consolidated assets +* **Category II**: Top-tier banking organizations, other than US GSIBs, with >=$700Bn in consolidated assets of >=$75Bn in average cross-jurisdiction activity, and to their depository institutions with >=$10Bn in consolidated assets. +* **Category III**: Top-tier banking organizations that have >=$250Bn in consolidated assets, or that have >$100Bn in consolidated assets and also have >=$75Bn or more in: + * Average nonbank assets + * Average weighted short-term wholesale funding + * Average off-balance sheet exposure (not in Category I or II) +* **Category IV**: Top-tier depository institutions holding companies or US intermediate holding companies that in each case have >=$100Bn in consolidated assets and >=$50Bn average weighted short-term wholesale funding (not in Category I, II, or III) + +**NFSR Requirements by Category** + +1. Category I: 100% +2. Category II: 100% +3. Category III: 85% +4. Category IV: 70% + +**Short Sales** \- I SUGGEST YOU READ THE WHOLE SECTION (IT IS GOLD) ([https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-810](https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2020-26546/p-810)) +Part of the MOASS theory is that many believe the U.S. would not screw over international brokers because the American stock market can not afford to have foreign entities lose trust in the system. Losing cashflow from these foreign brokers would be devastating. Lets take a look at what just happened. + +The DTCC blatantly lies to foreign broker about the nature of the GME split. They told the brokers just to issue shares as if its your everyday stock split. The problem is that many retail investors called thier brokers and asked them why it wasn't issued as a dividend like GME intended it to be. + +Foreign brokers looked into the issue further, and found that GME indeed issued the split as a dividend. These brokers then realized that they could potentially lose a lot of money by being responsible for 3 new shares that they could have to go out and buy on thier own. + +They realized the DTCC flat out lied to them and exposed them to risk they shouldn't have been exposed to. I would say this is a damn good reason to not trust the U.S. market! Im really interested to see whats going on BEHIND the scenes. These foreign brokers are pissed, im sure! + +The DTCC took one hell of a gamble lying to foreign brokers and crossing their fingers they wouldn't find out! + +This is about to get VERY INTERESTING. Don't think for a second that things arent going on with this issue that we don't know about. This is a big deal, and the DTCC shit to bed in a major way. Just sit back and watch Apes, this is bigger than screwing just american retailers over. +I know AT&T and dividend yield vs dividend growth get brought up a lot on here, but I think it's important to reiterate the following idea, especially for newer investors. Let's do a quick comparison between 2 stocks that have performed very differently over the past 10 years: AT&T (T) and Home Depot (HD). For this example we'll only look at dividends collected, not total return (although HD's total return was enormous due to stock performance). We'll compare from both a DRIP perspective and simply collecting the dividends to spend or reallocate elsewhere. All examples will use a $10,000 starting investment. + +### Dividends paid out over 10 years **without** DRIP: + +| Comparison | HD | T | +|---------------------|----------|---------| +| Div/share 2011 | $0.94 | $1.73 | +| Div/share 2020 | $5.44 | $2.08 | +| Annual Payout 2011 | $337 | $588 | +| Annual Payout 2020 | $1,942 | $708 | +| Tot Div over 10 yrs | $8,863 | $6,497 | + +### Dividends paid out over 10 years **with** DRIP: + +| Comparison | HD | T | +|---------------------|----------|---------| +| Div/share 2011 | $0.94 | $1.73 | +| Div/share 2020 | $5.44 | $2.08 | +| Annual Payout 2011 | $343 | $610 | +| Annual Payout 2020 | $2,414 | $1,194 | +| Tot Div over 10 yrs | $10,350 | $8,720 | + +### Dividend Growth Rate Comparison + +| Dividend Growth Rate | HD | T | +|----------------------|----------|---------| +| 10 Year CAGR | 19.71% | 2.21% | +| 5 Year CAGR | 23.68% | 2.09% | +| 3 Year CAGR | 25.38% | 2.04% | + +Note that HD's forward dividend was also increased to $6.00 and T's is still $2.08. + +HD isn't the only stock highlighting the powerful effects of a high dividend growth rate. A quick glance without factoring in DRIP also shows Broadcom (AVGO) paying $16,616 over the past 10 years and AbbVie (ABBV) paying $6,876 over only 8 years. All of these companies (HD, AVGO, ABBV) have also beat the overall market in terms of growth during those times. In many cases these high dividend growth stocks will pay more than high yielders once you hold for long enough. + +This post is just an example of why its important to take all factors into consideration when investing. It's a good idea to determine if you want/need the dividend income now or later, as your choice can have a big impact on your future compounding. Someone retired/retiring soon may still opt for T since they don't have the time to wait for a stock like HD to catch up. + +*All data taken from FastGraphs and Seeking Alpha* + +BETTER LATE THAN NEVER EDIT: This post isn't saying to buy HD, its showing the contrast in performance between high and low dividend growth over a decade. Ideally you would want to find the next company(s) that will perform like HD, as a repeat of its performance wouldn't be very likely. +The recent surge in popularity of Wallstreetbets sub has brought an influx of people to r/investing peddling harmful information for new investors, and it pains me to see a sub that was such a great resource for me when I started out investing become infested with losing strategies. Study after study shows that 90% of options traders lose money, that the vast majority of people who try to time the market lose out in the long run, and that almost 92% of actively managed large cap funds lost to the S&P 500 over the last 15 year period. Despite these facts, these losing strategies have been all I have been seeing on this sub over the last few months. + +If the data isn't convincing for you, I've got a story for you about the smartest man I know. Only person I know who got a perfect score on the SATs. Undergraduate and graduate degree in economics and finance from an Ivy League school, after which he became a CFA. Earned multi, multi, millions as a portfolio manager, before retiring young in his late 30's or early 40's. You want to know how he invests now that he is retired? Index funds. Do you want to know where he told me most of his hedge fund and mutual fund manager friends invest their own money? Index funds. + +Honestly, over the past few months, wallstreetbets has been a considerably less harmful sub for new investors than here. There seems to be an overarching theme over there that they know they are gamblers and dumbasses, where the options traders here seem to think they are the smartest guys in the room. At least they have funny memes over there to help ease the pain when they inevitably lose their money. + +I don't know what the solution to this is, I'm not sure if banning advice that has been statistically proven to lose money for most investors is a good idea. All I know is that this sub has become a place that is peddling advice that will lose new investors money, and I think it's atrocious. End rant. + +Edit: the amount of disinformation being up voted in this thread is staggering, people not knowing basic things like what the difference between an ETF and an index fund is and people thinking that portfolio managers only get compensated when they are successful. Case in point. + +Edit 2: Since everyone seems to think I am saying everyone should just throw everything in VTI and call it a day because they think that is the only index fund that exits, I'll clarify. If you feel like you have very strong knowledge that a particular sector will outperform, or if you have done a lot of homework and think for example growth stocks are going to crash, it's fine in my opinion to use a low cost index fund to overweight your portfolio towards value. For example, if you think large cap growth is going to continue to outperform, feel free to buy some Fidelity large cap growth index at .035 expense ratio. If you think tech is the way to go, dip your toe into some .08 expense ratio FTEC tech index fund. Hell if you have a stiffy for groceries, go ahead and treat yourself to some .13 % expense ratio XLP consumer staples index (I personally wouldn't buy anything with .1% exp ratio or over, but I don't it's a big mistake for someone to do that.) Using cheap indexes doesn't mean only buy things that completely emulate the market. You can diverge from the market as long as you do it cheaply and within reason. +Am I missing something or would you have to payout the money the bank would have made on that mortgage? Like could you just eat the higher rates for two or three years and then try to lock in a cheaper payment when the rates drop? + +First timer +So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders. + +1. Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. +Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUR/USD is the worst offender. + +2. Trade the Daily. +Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens. + +3. There is no holy grail indicator +Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy. + +4. What currencies to pick. +I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY). + +5. USE YOUR SL +Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense. + +6. How to pick your TP and SL level. +Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it. + +7. Lot sizes. +Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade. + +8. How to avoid reversals. +Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half. + +9. There is NO right way to trade. +Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that). + +10. Trade money you're willing to lose +Don't trade your rent money. + +That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone. +Hello everyone. I am a tenured finance professor at the Midwest school making $250k and my wife is a software engineer making $150k. We have two kids 1 and 3. + +Recently I’ve been thinking about moving back to industry, partly because academic after tenure is very boring. I think I am able to secure a private equity or hedge fund job for $750k a year. My question is whether the extra pay is worth the time I’m going to lose. + +Being a tenured professor is extremely easy I teach on two days a week and spend four hours every other day on research. I have winter off and summer off. I like to spend time with my kids but I feel deep inside that I could do something more professionally. + +For those of you who have fatfired, is it worth giving up time for money? My wife will find another tech job next year which will bump her pay to 250k also. It appears to me that we have enough money so it doesn’t seem rational to chase for money, did I miss something? + +Thanks! If any of you are interested in academic jobs is universities I’m happy to chat. + +[edit:] +1. Thanks everyone for your feedback! I really appreciate every one of them I’ll read them in more details and thought them through. +2. Not all professors get paid this much and work only 20 hours. Mine is a combination of salary, summer support and endowed chair. I’m very efficient doing what I’m doing that’s why I only spent 20 hours. For the past 10 years or so I spent an average of 60 to 70 hours per week. +Hey everyone, I’m really having a difficult time getting my finances in order. Back in January my fiancée (21F) and I (21M) moved into our first apartment. Ever since then we have been struggling to get money to save and even pay our bills. We both work full time and both make over minimum wage where we live. Honestly I don’t really know how else to say this so I’m just going to say it how it is. She comes from a wealthier family and sometimes has trouble with spending habits. This is something that we have both discussed and it’s something that she agrees is an issue. Right now we are both in debt (she used my credit card without my knowledge for a while and also promised she would pay me back whenever she did ask me to use it, which didn’t happen, and now I feel really cornered with my finances. I’ve been trying to pay the debt off for months but we struggle to even get enough for our monthly bills. Aside from that we don’t even have much food either and I don’t eat much as a result. I’m just really struggling with this right now because I want us to be able to start saving money and be able to afford things and starts saving and investing but with the debt and the money issues we are facing it just feels kind of impossible right now. Any advice is welcome. + +IMPORTANT NOTE: +The apartment we live in is well within our budget, we didn’t choose to live somewhere really fancy. +If the SHF and MM would have let GME squeeze they would have gotten away with all the fraud and been able to continue their scheme. Since they didn't let it squeeze, people got pissed, did research and have uncovered evidence indicating market-wide fruad, collusion and racketeering. + +Those greedy fuks couldn't let us have anything, now.....I HOPE THEY LOSE EVERYTHING. +So I had about 3700 in cc debt. I paid for an entire semester of classes and some other stuff. I just threw 1500, which was basically my most recent paycheck, at it (minus 50 bucks). I'm not going to spend money on anything except for gas for my scooter (~$3 a tank) and maybe cheap produce if I need food. I've been eating out almost daily for the last 2 months so I need to reign that in as well. + +If something comes up I have an emergency fund that can pay rent for a few months. I pay rent on the 15th so on my last paycheck I set that amount aside already. + +My work feeds me, I have groceries for a while, and I have soylent that could take me into the beginning of next year so I dont have real food expenses right now. + +Only other bills are internet ($50) and power ($50). And cat food/litter ($35+$15) but I have lots of that. + +I have a gym membership on the card I need to cancel but I've been dreading it, even though I haven't gone in months cos they're nice people, I moved and it's much further now and it's just not practical for me to make it there because they're class based and my schedule doesnt work with it. + +This is the first time I've ever had so much on a cc, and I've had a laid back attitude about it because "eh I can always pay it back" but for the last couple months it's been bouncing back and forth. I'd throw in a lump sum payment and feel good then I'd spend a bunch because I'm well under my limit (it's the amazon prime signature visa). + +My credit report went down almost 20 points from high utilization. + +I want to start the new year off right so I'm starting now. + +The crazy thing to me is that this is more than my student loan debt from trade school, which I've just been very lazy about because the payments and interest are so low. My student loans are $2200. I'm so far ahead on payments that I dont even have a minimum payment right now and the last time I paid was july. + +I'm going to really try to kill this debt before the end of the year. Wish me luck! tips and tricks appreciated. Have any of you ever done "no spend " weeks or months? +Hi, + +Does this course is good to start adventure with Quantitative Finance? + +[https://www.edx.org/course/mathematical-methods-for-quantitative-finance?utm\_medium=affiliate\_partner&utm\_source=mitopenlearning-mit-open-learning](https://www.edx.org/course/mathematical-methods-for-quantitative-finance?utm_medium=affiliate_partner&utm_source=mitopenlearning-mit-open-learning) + +Thanks in advance. +I'd like to start a thread where everyone can share their financial overview for 2020 and we comment on each other's expenses/income. Different countries are of course not always comparable, so it would be worth mentioning where you live. + +Let me start off with myself. I live in Germany, 27M, live by myself and work in the science &amp;amp;amp; engineering sector. I only started investing this year, after the lockdown started. Also, I moved from the Netherlands to Germany in February and had some moving costs relating to e.g. furniture and administrative costs, but saved rent and food costs in January by living at my parents' house. Also, my income is somewhat higher this year due to some extra allowances and “delayed income” related to changing jobs (2000-3000€). + +[Sankey diagram](https://i.imgur.com/hjuawPg.png) + +EDIT: since some comments remarked on my high savings rate, here are a few reasons why I save so much: +* I live in eastern Germany where rent is cheap, while earning the same salary as someone with my position in western Germany. +* 2020 pandemic. I saved considerably on vacation, eating out, cafeteria lunch, etc. Apart from a short trip in January, all my other holidays were trips to my visit family. +* No car. I commute to work by bike. +* No spouse or kids. +* Free haircuts from an acquaintance. +The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with a low ability of a given task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task. We are incapable of objective evaluation of our own competency levels. I'm writing about it as I've come to realise I suffer from it. + +Dunning and Kruger's main finding from their 1999 study “Unskilled and Unaware of it” was that the worst performers consistently overestimate their ability relative to others. + +I've outlined two examples of this bias in action and how you can avoid some of these pitfalls: + +1. Investing + +As the age old saying goes, "Everyone is a genius in a bull market." + +When your portfolio is growing and the markets are ripping as they have in 2020, many fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger Effect. We tend to wrongly attribute this performance to our ability as talented investors. + +2. Politics + +An obvious example people have been using recently is Donald Trump, whose confidence never wavers, despite his weak interest and understanding of policy matters. + +The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is you don't know you're a member of the Dunning-Kruger club. But we're all human, and it's important to recognise that we are all prone to this cognitive bias. + +Here are a few strategies to avoid it: + +1. Identify your circle of competence + +The circle of competence is a sacred place. It's a set of topics or areas that align with a person's expertise. Be ruthless in identifying and protecting the boundaries, and it's usually smaller than you think. + +As Charlie Munger said, "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of being very intelligent." + +Know your competencies, focus on them. Know your incompetencies, avoid or outsource them. + +2. Be a first principles thinker + +A first principle is a foundational assumption or proposition - it is foundational in that it cannot be deduced from other assumptions. In chemistry, it's like an element. It cannot be broken down further. + +Ground yourself in foundational truths and build up from there. Challenge your reasoning, and most importantly, always ask why. + +"It isn't what you don't know that gets you in trouble. It's what you know for sure that just isn't so." + +Link to original: https://mrsk.substack.com/p/everyone-is-a-genius-in-a-bull-market +Dear fellow GME apes, + +It is with great sadness that I have to bring to Superstonk the sad news of the unexpected passing of a well-known fellow ape, champion of the infinity pool DD, u/BluPrince. + +I'd usually not like to crosspost subreddits, but please kindly refer to the following post for more information. + +r/ infinitypool/comments/v118hh/rip\_bluprince/ + +Please be respectful. Thank you. + +\~ + +* Edit: here's the original infinity pool DD from 1 year ago: Superstonk/comments/mpvx9n/the\_infinity\_pool\_naming\_a\_theoretical\_posit\_for/ +* Please remember the acts of kindness demonstrated by u/ BluPrince as well: + +Acts of Kindness, food donations, and gift cards: + +"Infinity Pool Day: Honoring GREAT Retail Employees with GameStop Retail Employee Appreciation Time" "Each location received a package of purple ring cookies and a handwritten Thank You card. Visited nine locations." + +Link: Superstonk/comments/u39ct9/infinity\_pool\_day\_honoring\_great\_retail\_employees/ + +More acts of kindness, food donation: + +"Taking care of the retail employees at one of my local branches who have to work on the holiday. Hope they like the pie as much as I like the stock." + +Link: Superstonk/comments/r2bd0t/taking\_care\_of\_the\_retail\_employees\_at\_one\_of\_my/ + +Donation of toys for needy children, from the Superstonk GMERRY X'mas 2021 campaign: + +"Reposted w info obscured - LAST DAY TO DONATE!!!" + +Link: Superstonk/comments/rdht5e/reposted\_w\_info\_obscured\_last\_day\_to\_donate/ + +\~ + +Edit 2: u/BluPrince's brother [u/pogowhat](https://www.reddit.com/user/pogowhat) said he would like to share with us some handsome photos of the great ape himself: [https://imgur.com/gallery/t9mFYt2](https://imgur.com/gallery/t9mFYt2) + +Edit 3: from u/pogowhat's post - those who would like to donate on his behalf, here’s the go fund me that their family put together for his daughter. [https://gofund.me/05625056](https://gofund.me/05625056) . +**We don't need anyone else.** + +PFOF doesn't matter. + +Dave Lauer doesn't matter. + +The SEC doesn't matter. + +Overstock doesn't matter. + +Nothing matters at this point except prying every single share away from these idiots, and if they want to keep dropping the price we'll just get it done faster. + +I appreciate the efforts many have made to help make things more fair for retail investors, but at the end of the day we're playing in their house by their rules, and there simply won't be any significant changes. + +All we need is for the people that have already contributed to the direct registration of 71 million + shares to keep buying and DRSing and we'll get there soon enough. + +If more people want to join, great. If not, so be it. + +I'm sure this is going to get downvoted to shit by all the ardent market reform activists that seem to be occupying the sub these days, but I don't care. If you guys want to scream into the void that is our current market structure, go for it. I'd like to make an actual difference. + +Every post that isn't DRS or from GameStop themselves is noise. + +Stay sassy kingz and queenz. +Throwaway account. I'm 44 years old. My net worth is just over $20M and i spend about $500K a year. I know i'm very lucky to be in this position. + +My initial goal was $10M to FIRE. Now I have double that amount and I'm still working. I make about $3M a year and now I'm thinking I should work until I have $25M, which should be in year or two (unless the market crashes). Am I crazy? I justify working by saying my three kids will need to work 10 or 20 years to earn what I can in a year. A part of me says to wait to retire until after the market crashes, to make sure I have enough after the crash. I guess I'm just afraid to retire because I worked really hard to get to this position. My job is hard, but not harder than most and it's lucrative. I've given my sister over $100K per year for the last 5 yrs (she needs to work a year to earn that amount) and I earn it in less than a month. Again, I know I'm lucky and I just wondering if others have the same experience/fear. +My husband and I want to move and were facing the decision for a long time to move into a large condo in the city center or to buy a huge piece of land and build a house there. The latter would be our dream, of course. Peace, seclusion, our own pool, library, large garden.... but also a lot of work and staff that we would need to hire for it, especially because we'd like to keep that house till we die and that's probably another 40+ years. My father always told me "Don't buy work with your money." and maintaining a house with a big garden is definitely a lot of work. + +Now I've been thinking about whether an alternative or compromise would be to just stay in a hotel or resort. Permanently as a main residence. The locations are usually good, there may be a sauna in the suite, an ever-maintained garden and pool, a golf course, cleaning service, dining options and so on. Thanks to elevators, accessibility is provided in old age. Security could also be better here and I wouldn't have to worry if we travel for a few months. On the other hand, a kitchen is missing as well as a large refrigerator (serviced apartments do not exist in my country yet - Austria). We're introverted couch potatoes and enjoy our time together, so I don't think it would get boring (and we could leave the hotel's grounds to walk around the city). Peace and quiet would be important to us and here I am not sure if this is the right choice. I'm not a party person, but I don't want trouble with neighbors because I sneeze or laugh too loud. Or listening to the neighbor's kid play the trumpet in the morning. + +Don't worry, if I decide to do this, I would test it first and live there for 3-6 months. Unfortunately, I don't know anyone who lives in a hotel, so I would be interested in your experiences or opinions. From your point of view, what speaks for it and what against it? +Curious what the peanut gallery thinks. Is this de facto property appropriation by capping owner rental income increases (as expenses inflate)? Not uncommon for an Oakland apartment owner to have a $2000 market rate unit renting for just $1000 due to having a long-term tenant in a rent controlled unit. Oakland’s anti-landlord politicians, will now only allow a $30 monthly rent increase on this unit. + +CPI Announcement Update: The Oakland City Council has adopted an amendment to change the formula used to calculate the annual allowable rent increase to 60% of the change in CPI, or 3%, whichever is lower. Effective August 1, 2022, the new maximum annual CPI rent increase is 3%. +To be clear, stock price being down isn't an indicator of contrarianism (or at least, it cannot be the only indicator). + +By contrarian, I mean you have a well-reasoned and meaningfully different thesis/view on a stock than other knowledgeable investors. Such that, if you were proven right in due time, the stock would fundamentally re-rate upwards. (or downwards, if you are into short-selling) + +By definition, if the stock is popular on this subreddit, it is probably not sufficiently contrarian. Ideally, it is a stock that raises eyebrows, or perhaps a bit of 'ick' factor, or draws a completely blank look, or makes you a bit embarrassed among 'gentlemen' investors and most probably unpopular on this subreddit. + +Gentle note: please don't downvote others just because you disagree with an idea. These are meant to be somewhat unpopular ideas. Please upvote (you don't have to be completely persuaded) if you find an idea with some merit/well-reasoned and changed your view if only 'slightly'. + +Update: + +[Here are the results](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/tcvnhx/comment/i0pfcll/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). +[https://ca.news.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-2-billion-japan-210000151.html](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-2-billion-japan-210000151.html) + +Warren Buffett shocked Tokyo markets last August with a $6 billion bet on the country’s five largest trading houses. + +One year on, his investments are paying off. Amid the surge in commodity prices, the collective value of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s stakes in the five “sogo shosha” has risen by about $2 billion. That gain of more than 30% has outpaced the benchmark Topix index’s 22% rise, and doesn’t account for dividend income. + +....The five firms -- Itochu Corp., Marubeni Corp., Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui & Co. Ltd. and Sumitomo Corp. -- seem on paper an unusual fit for Buffett’s “buy-what-you-know” philosophy. +Hello r/eupersonalfinance + +I am a 19yo student from Slovakia and I am currently finishing high school. I have a dilemma regarding my decision about whether to leave Slovakia to achieve better education or to stay home and keep some of the money my parents would be paying for my accommodation and everyday life style. + +Before i dive further into the details, a little information about my future goals as well as my current financial situation. + +As I mentioned, I am 19 and I live in Slovakia. As of today, I have no intend to leave Slovakia and live somewhere else. I get along with my parents and I enjoy living with them. I have the ability to go study abroad, since my sister did so a few years ago and my parents paid for the whole thing. It cost them a lot of money but it did not change our current or future financial situation. + +Now, when its time for me to choose a university, they're fully supporting me in studying abroad but they wouldn't mind at all if stayed home and attended a university in Slovakia - it's only my call to decide what to do. + +I already spent a year in Switzerland as an exchange student, so i speak German as well as English fluently. + +Since i don't really want to leave Slovakia and live abroad, the only university outside of Slovakia which i am considering is in Vienna, Austria ( 40min drive from where i live, 1h direct connection with a train ) + +If I would decide to go to Vienna, my parents would be paying 720€ for the university p.a. and around 700€ monthly for my accommodation and living expenses. + +If i would decide to stay at home, i could be getting 350€ as passive income every month, which would be ONLY used to dollar-cost-average into a MSCI WORLD 80/20 Portfolio. Without my own contributions and without any gains, this would add up to 12600€ of net investment + around 3000€ which i already have in the MSCI WORLD Portfolio before even finishing the university. + +In Wien, i would certainly get a better education than in Slovakia, but firstly i would like how much sense does it make to go study abroad, when you wanna live at home? Secondly, I am already engaged in a few student organizations, through which i could go on a internship pretty soon, where my german knowledge could be of a great use. + +Essentially what i am trying to figure out is, if it is better to have a average university accompanied by some early internship together with 15 000€ in a long term investment portfolio, or a above average university, and therefore probably an above average internship later on with only a few thousand dollars invested, which i would have to save on my own. +I am asking for advice as my girlfriend has sold an apartment in Russia a while ago, and is living in the UK. All of a sudden war breaks out and in one day the currency of her saving account has dropped by quite a bit. + +Her savings account has 6% interest rate. + +Personally i have adviced her to convert it as soon as possible to euro's or pounds, whatever option she has to get it out. + +I am curious what you would recommend, and what you would do? + +She is hoping to buy an apartment in the UK within 1-3 years, and needs the savings for this. + +Update: +The money is being converted to pounds. Afterwards in anyway possible they will be withdrawn. + +Thanks to all of you who gave me kind and swift advice :) +EDIT: It's been 6 months and nothing has changed. + +I am successfully mining ETH for GME. Everything that was said in regards to me wasting my time was FUD. My miner is accepting GME's NFT program's wallet address and mining Ether into it with zero reversions! + +I noticed the disgraced Superstonk ex-mod "Madie" has tweeted in response to my Ethereum mining post, attempting to debunk it. The contract address Madie uses in this post is not a wallet address, and thereby will obviously not work. + +&#x200B; + +[Madie falsely debunks my ETH mining post intentionally using the wrong code](https://preview.redd.it/fxmzs4kmzvb71.png?width=611&format=png&auto=webp&s=5441c5389852837a9a3daf3e61280101dbf57dfc) + +The address she uses is not a wallet address. It is a contract address. Anyone who mines would know that. I doubt Madie mines at all. GameStop's wallet address is: [0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad) + +You can see that this address is the same one used in my post explaining what I am doing: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojeygl/im\_relatively\_sure\_ive\_been\_gpu\_mining\_ethereum/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojeygl/im_relatively_sure_ive_been_gpu_mining_ethereum/) + +I am now entirely sure that I am successfully mining ETH for GME. I challenge anyone to plug this address into their miner and tell me it is not working. I wasn't suggesting anyone follow me down this rabbit hole before, but I am now. This is 100% working. + +\*\*Keep in mind that you will not be able to claim anything you mine to this address. Consider any Ethereum mined to this address to be a donation.\*\* + +Love all Apes. We're not fucking leaving! +I posted this over at AusFinance, but am just as curious (possibly more so) to read some of your replies. + + It's easy to get caught up in the process; work, save, invest, rinse and repeat. It's great watching your finances increase while things are going well. But it's just as easy to lose track of what's really important to us and why we started investing in the first place. + +I'm working pretty hard at the moment to save money and make good financial decisions and I'm starting to think more about the end game. + +So I'm curious; What is your end game? + +How far off are you? + +How do you plan on transitioning? +We have all read the cliche definition of [gamma](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamma.asp). It's the only second order Greek that is readily available on the option chain of just about any trading platform. This arguably makes gamma the most important second order Greek. Yet, it's often ignored. + +Under one of my [comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/j095je/is_this_a_reasonable_goal/g6pboxn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) in this subreddit, u/MrKhutz asked me to create a post about gamma. Because I like options, I couldn't resist. + +# Curves + +Before discussing gamma, we need to cover some curves. + +Beginners often make the mistake of only thinking about the profit and loss of their options trade post expiration. I don't blame them, because I made the same mistake. The expiration profit/loss curve is the easiest to conceptualize. If the spot price is at or below the call strike, then the option is worthless. If the spot price is above the call strike plus premium paid, then the option is at breakeven. ITM delta is one. ATM/OTM delta is 0. No other Greeks required. Simple. + +Below is the expiration curve of a SPY call. + +[Expiration P\/L Curve of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/umtdhu8j6mp51.png?width=2116&format=png&auto=webp&s=932c6b0bfcb4e7055f608d40525dc6810d377cf8) + +What about before expiration? That's when all the fun happens. That's when the Greeks dance the [kalamatianos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvul9U03Bvg). Below is the current profit/loss curve of the same call, juxtaposed with its expiration profit/loss curve. + +[Current P\/L Curve \(Magenta\) vs Expiration P\/L Curve \(Cyan\) of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/igx63ixm6mp51.png?width=2117&format=png&auto=webp&s=05be006d5795567d2c2bba0c2b47a67f7e600b53) + +As you can see, the current curve is not a straight line, and it does not have a sharp corner like the expiration curve does. Over time, as the option approaches expiration and its extrinsic value decays, its P/L curve bends more and becomes more like its expiration curve. Below is the call's curve projected about two weeks into the future, a few days before expiration. Notice how the bend of the curve is more pronounced. + +[Future P\/L Curve \(Magenta\) vs Expiration P\/L Curve \(Cyan\) of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/r7hyd03q6mp51.png?width=2117&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e90f6965e5fd6a2799fb2469db1bd2ab97d8469) + +For the sake of brevity, I only used a long call in the above examples. + +* To visualize the curve of a short call, flip the long call's curve top to bottom. +* To visualize the curve of a long put, flip the long call's curve left to right. +* To visualize the curve of a short put, flip the long call's curve left to right and top to bottom. + +Fun Facts + +* While the passage of time bends the current P/L curve, bringing it closer to its expiration P/L curve, an increase in implied volatility straightens the current P/L curve, taking it farther away from its expiration P/L curve. +* The P/L curve can be tilted with a stock position in the underlying. +* The P/L curve can be reshaped and/or tilted with a combination of contracts/spreads. + +# Slippery Slope + +Now that we can visualize the pre-expiration P/L curve, we can apply the Greeks to it. The easiest Greek to see on the curve is delta. If you haven't figured it out yet, delta is the slope (or steepness) of the P/L curve. On the expiration curve, the slope is 0/1 on one side of the strike and 1/1 on the other side of the strike. On the pre-expiration curve, the slope changes more gradually with the spot price. Its slope flattens out closer to 0/1 when the spot price brings the option deeper OTM, and it steepens closer to 1/1 when the spot price brings the option deeper ITM. This change in slope is numerically described by gamma. If delta is the slope of the P/L curve, then gamma is the slope of delta (slope of the slope). If delta is the steepness of the P/L curve, then gamma is the bend of the curve. Notice how the bend is more pronounced around the strike. This is why gamma is the highest for ATM options. Remember how the P/L curve bends more as it approaches expiration? This is why gamma increases for near-the-money options approaching expiration. + +Thus, delta and gamma essentially tell you where you are along the current P/L curve of the option. They tell you its current slope and its current bend at the spot, respectively. Theta tells you how the curve will change at the current spot after one day, while vega tells you how the curve will change at the current spot if implied volatility goes up or goes down by one percent. Delta and gamma refer to the current shape of the curve, while theta and vega refer to the change of the curve's shape. + +# Landlords and Tenants + +All I want to do is collect my premiums. Why should I care about this stuff? + +When you write an option, its buyer pays you premium. Over time, this premium depreciates. How does the buyer benefit? The buyer benefits from the bend of the curve. + +The option buyer's gamma is positive. + +* On a directional trade, positive gamma decelerates losses from an adverse underlying move and accelerates profit from a favorable underlying move. +* On a delta-neutral trade, positive gamma accelerates profits in either direction of the underlying move + +The option writer's exposure is the opposite. + +* On a directional trade, negative gamma accelerates losses from an adverse underlying move and decelerates profit from a favorable underlying move. +* On a delta-neutral trade, negative gamma accelerates losses in either direction of the underlying move. + +To enjoy this luxury, the buyer needs to pay rent via depreciating premium, like a tenant paying rent to the landlord. Like the landlord, the option writer collects rent via depreciating premium but has the obligation to provide the buyer with the luxury of the bent curve. + +**Theta and gamma are inversely related.** + +For the option buyer: + +* low (+) gamma / low (-) theta +* high (+) gamma / high (-) theta + +For the option writer: + +* low (-) gamma / low (+) theta +* high (-) gamma / high (+) theta + +This is why short-term near-the-money options are risky for both, the writer and the buyer. Nearing expiration, options that are near the money have high positive gamma and high negative theta. The buyer benefits from the high positive gamma but can get killed by the high negative theta. On the other hand, the writer benefits from the high positive theta but can get killed by the high negative gamma. + +There is an exception to this theta-gamma relationship. A spike in implied volatility decreases positive gamma and increases negative theta of an option. This is the BSM model’s way of compensating for the inflated premiums, maintaining the integrity of the Greeks, and projecting the inevitable worthlessness of the option’s extrinsic value. This is why it's dangerous to buy an option with inflated implied volatility (e.g. earnings plays). The buyer pays high premium for an option with high negative theta but gets relatively lower positive gamma in return. + +# Know Thy Exposure + +That's the cardinal rule in options trading. Options are multidimensional and nonlinear. Knowing your exposure is crucial when trading options. Gamma is part of this exposure. Know where your P/L curve bends and how it bends over time and IV fluctuations. May the Greeks be with you. + + AMENDMENT + +Some commenters requested examples specific to r/thetagang strategies. + +# Theta Gang Examples + +I decided explore two examples, one directional and one delta-neutral. + +**Cash-Secured Put** + +A cash-secured put gives you a directional exposure with negative gamma. + +[SPY 0.15 Delta Cash-Secured Put 30 DTE](https://preview.redd.it/lzx5r2jnmqp51.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbb688a2fcf1ab8d3b89e1b19cf66e35156e766d) + +I added price slices spaced 10 dollars apart. Study the deltas, gammas, and P/Ls at each price slice. Notice how gamma is the highest at the strike. This is where the bend is most pronounced. Notice how it doesn't take a lot for a downward move to start racking up losses. Notice how it would take a 20-dollar move upward or about 4 weeks for the trade to get almost to its maximum profit. A 20-dollar move downward would generate an unrealized loss that is greater than the maximum profit, even without considering a spike in implied volatility from a sell-off. This is the exposure you have when you are benefitting from time decay. This is negative gamma. + +**Iron Condor** + +A balanced iron condor gives you a delta-neutral exposure with negative gamma. + +[SPY \~0.15 Delta Iron Condor 30 DTE](https://preview.redd.it/ccwsrbyapqp51.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=78e1900debebd0a1713acd184c520576e6ab2bf5) + +Again, I placed price slices spaced 10 dollar apart. Study the deltas, gammas, and P/Ls at each price slice. Notice that negative gamma is the highest at the money, where delta is relatively neutral. Notice how delta accelerates downward in both directions. Also, notice how gamma turns positive at the tail ends. That's the long legs of the iron condor bending the curve upward. + +For an IC this wide, this dynamic changes a bit over time. Below is the same IC, held over time until a few days before expiration. + +[SPY \~0.15 Delta Iron Condor Opened at 30 DTE and Held to Near Expiration](https://preview.redd.it/9025h9b3uqp51.png?width=2464&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0289affdcba598e21a541893e1b65070fb80279) + +Notice how gamma is minimal in the middle of the iron condor (there is almost no curve). The curve takes a dive on the way to the short strikes and bends back up around the long strikes. As you can see, you don't have to be that close to the short strikes to start losing the profit so patiently accrued, if the underlying moves to test either of the short strikes. This is the bend of the curve. This is gamma. +We have all read the cliche definition of [gamma](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gamma.asp). It's the only second order Greek that is readily available on the option chain of just about any trading platform. This arguably makes gamma the most important second order Greek. Yet, it's often ignored. + +Under one of my [comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/j095je/is_this_a_reasonable_goal/g6pboxn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3) in this subreddit, u/MrKhutz asked me to create a post about gamma. Because I like options, I couldn't resist. + +# Curves + +Before discussing gamma, we need to cover some curves. + +Beginners often make the mistake of only thinking about the profit and loss of their options trade post expiration. I don't blame them, because I made the same mistake. The expiration profit/loss curve is the easiest to conceptualize. If the spot price is at or below the call strike, then the option is worthless. If the spot price is above the call strike plus premium paid, then the option is at breakeven. ITM delta is one. ATM/OTM delta is 0. No other Greeks required. Simple. + +Below is the expiration curve of a SPY call. + +[Expiration P\/L Curve of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/umtdhu8j6mp51.png?width=2116&format=png&auto=webp&s=932c6b0bfcb4e7055f608d40525dc6810d377cf8) + +What about before expiration? That's when all the fun happens. That's when the Greeks dance the [kalamatianos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvul9U03Bvg). Below is the current profit/loss curve of the same call, juxtaposed with its expiration profit/loss curve. + +[Current P\/L Curve \(Magenta\) vs Expiration P\/L Curve \(Cyan\) of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/igx63ixm6mp51.png?width=2117&format=png&auto=webp&s=05be006d5795567d2c2bba0c2b47a67f7e600b53) + +As you can see, the current curve is not a straight line, and it does not have a sharp corner like the expiration curve does. Over time, as the option approaches expiration and its extrinsic value decays, its P/L curve bends more and becomes more like its expiration curve. Below is the call's curve projected about two weeks into the future, a few days before expiration. Notice how the bend of the curve is more pronounced. + +[Future P\/L Curve \(Magenta\) vs Expiration P\/L Curve \(Cyan\) of SPY201012C336](https://preview.redd.it/r7hyd03q6mp51.png?width=2117&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e90f6965e5fd6a2799fb2469db1bd2ab97d8469) + +For the sake of brevity, I only used a long call in the above examples. + +* To visualize the curve of a short call, flip the long call's curve top to bottom. +* To visualize the curve of a long put, flip the long call's curve left to right. +* To visualize the curve of a short put, flip the long call's curve left to right and top to bottom. + +Fun Facts + +* While the passage of time bends the current P/L curve, bringing it closer to its expiration P/L curve, an increase in implied volatility straightens the current P/L curve, taking it farther away from its expiration P/L curve. +* The P/L curve can be tilted with a stock position in the underlying. +* The P/L curve can be reshaped and/or tilted with a combination of contracts/spreads. + +# Slippery Slope + +Now that we can visualize the pre-expiration P/L curve, we can apply the Greeks to it. The easiest Greek to see on the curve is delta. If you haven't figured it out yet, delta is the slope (or steepness) of the P/L curve. On the expiration curve, the slope is 0/1 on one side of the strike and 1/1 on the other side of the strike. On the pre-expiration curve, the slope changes more gradually with the spot price. Its slope flattens out closer to 0/1 when the spot price brings the option deeper OTM, and it steepens closer to 1/1 when the spot price brings the option deeper ITM. This change in slope is numerically described by gamma. If delta is the slope of the P/L curve, then gamma is the slope of delta (slope of the slope). If delta is the steepness of the P/L curve, then gamma is the bend of the curve. Notice how the bend is more pronounced around the strike. This is why gamma is the highest for ATM options. Remember how the P/L curve bends more as it approaches expiration? This is why gamma increases for near-the-money options approaching expiration. + +Thus, delta and gamma essentially tell you where you are along the current P/L curve of the option. They tell you its current slope and its current bend at the spot, respectively. Theta tells you how the curve will change at the current spot after one day, while vega tells you how the curve will change at the current spot if implied volatility goes up or goes down by one percent. Delta and gamma refer to the current shape of the curve, while theta and vega refer to the change of the curve's shape. + +# Landlords and Tenants + +All I want to do is collect my premiums. Why should I care about this stuff? + +When you write an option, its buyer pays you premium. Over time, this premium depreciates. How does the buyer benefit? The buyer benefits from the bend of the curve. + +The option buyer's gamma is positive. + +* On a directional trade, positive gamma decelerates losses from an adverse underlying move and accelerates profit from a favorable underlying move. +* On a delta-neutral trade, positive gamma accelerates profits in either direction of the underlying move + +The option writer's exposure is the opposite. + +* On a directional trade, negative gamma accelerates losses from an adverse underlying move and decelerates profit from a favorable underlying move. +* On a delta-neutral trade, negative gamma accelerates losses in either direction of the underlying move. + +To enjoy this luxury, the buyer needs to pay rent via depreciating premium, like a tenant paying rent to the landlord. Like the landlord, the option writer collects rent via depreciating premium but has the obligation to provide the buyer with the luxury of the bent curve. + +**Theta and gamma are inversely related.** + +For the option buyer: + +* low (+) gamma / low (-) theta +* high (+) gamma / high (-) theta + +For the option writer: + +* low (-) gamma / low (+) theta +* high (-) gamma / high (+) theta + +This is why short-term near-the-money options are risky for both, the writer and the buyer. Nearing expiration, options that are near the money have high positive gamma and high negative theta. The buyer benefits from the high positive gamma but can get killed by the high negative theta. On the other hand, the writer benefits from the high positive theta but can get killed by the high negative gamma. + +There is an exception to this theta-gamma relationship. A spike in implied volatility decreases positive gamma and increases negative theta of an option. This is the BSM model’s way of compensating for the inflated premiums, maintaining the integrity of the Greeks, and projecting the inevitable worthlessness of the option’s extrinsic value. This is why it's dangerous to buy an option with inflated implied volatility (e.g. earnings plays). The buyer pays high premium for an option with high negative theta but gets relatively lower positive gamma in return. + +# Know Thy Exposure + +That's the cardinal rule in options trading. Options are multidimensional and nonlinear. Knowing your exposure is crucial when trading options. Gamma is part of this exposure. Know where your P/L curve bends and how it bends over time and IV fluctuations. May the Greeks be with you. + + AMENDMENT + +Some commenters requested examples specific to r/thetagang strategies. + +# Theta Gang Examples + +I decided explore two examples, one directional and one delta-neutral. + +**Cash-Secured Put** + +A cash-secured put gives you a directional exposure with negative gamma. + +[SPY 0.15 Delta Cash-Secured Put 30 DTE](https://preview.redd.it/lzx5r2jnmqp51.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbb688a2fcf1ab8d3b89e1b19cf66e35156e766d) + +I added price slices spaced 10 dollars apart. Study the deltas, gammas, and P/Ls at each price slice. Notice how gamma is the highest at the strike. This is where the bend is most pronounced. Notice how it doesn't take a lot for a downward move to start racking up losses. Notice how it would take a 20-dollar move upward or about 4 weeks for the trade to get almost to its maximum profit. A 20-dollar move downward would generate an unrealized loss that is greater than the maximum profit, even without considering a spike in implied volatility from a sell-off. This is the exposure you have when you are benefitting from time decay. This is negative gamma. + +**Iron Condor** + +A balanced iron condor gives you a delta-neutral exposure with negative gamma. + +[SPY \~0.15 Delta Iron Condor 30 DTE](https://preview.redd.it/ccwsrbyapqp51.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=78e1900debebd0a1713acd184c520576e6ab2bf5) + +Again, I placed price slices spaced 10 dollar apart. Study the deltas, gammas, and P/Ls at each price slice. Notice that negative gamma is the highest at the money, where delta is relatively neutral. Notice how delta accelerates downward in both directions. Also, notice how gamma turns positive at the tail ends. That's the long legs of the iron condor bending the curve upward. + +For an IC this wide, this dynamic changes a bit over time. Below is the same IC, held over time until a few days before expiration. + +[SPY \~0.15 Delta Iron Condor Opened at 30 DTE and Held to Near Expiration](https://preview.redd.it/9025h9b3uqp51.png?width=2464&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0289affdcba598e21a541893e1b65070fb80279) + +Notice how gamma is minimal in the middle of the iron condor (there is almost no curve). The curve takes a dive on the way to the short strikes and bends back up around the long strikes. As you can see, you don't have to be that close to the short strikes to start losing the profit so patiently accrued, if the underlying moves to test either of the short strikes. This is the bend of the curve. This is gamma. +Hear me out... + +Let's say you receive an unwanted and poorly composed shot of someone's junk (I'll also assume you're a lady, since they get the vast majority of them). + +Don't delete that thing - mint it as an NFT and credit the sender as the original artist. + +Then, send them an invite to buy their art and remove it from the blockchain. If they don't, their name and nads will exist forever more in the very public blockchain, for all to see. + +The best part is there's only like, what, 3.75 billion d*cks on the planet, and if men get discouraged from sending them, they become SCARCE. + +The market cap potential is enormous. I've done some analysis, and predict d*ck pic NFTs could hit $1 million in the next 5 years. + +Now is the time to get involved and start DCA (d*ck, camera, action!) into this exciting new project. + +Edit to add for everyone asking how you can prove its that person's dick: it's really simple. You can prove its theirs by getting them to send you another picture of their dick, and checking if they look the same. This is called Proof of Dick. + +The upside of this, is that now you have TWO dick pics, so you've basically doubled your money. +Back in 2018, Bitcoin gained a massive spike in value. Many people were FOMOing in at very high prices, even taking out loans to buy more Bitcoin (never do this; never EVER do this, not even for a thing as sure as GME; never ever in your life spend more money on investments than you have) and even more people had the thought: "I wish I had bought into this earlier, then I would be rich now!" + +It will be exactly the same during the GME squeeze. Some people will FOMO in when it's already too late. Everyone else who hears about it on the news will think: "I wish I had bought some shares earlier, I could have been rich! But now it's too late!" + +We're the people who bought in before it was too late. We can all look back afterwards and say: I was a part of it! You won't be among those who regret not seizing the opportunity when they had it. No matter how much you are hodling, be it X, XX, XXX, XXXX, or even XXXXX, you're part of it. We're all going to the moon together and it will be beautiful. +This is one of the main things that has contributed to the housing crisis, and I feel we are due for some action to be done about this. + +Say that starting today, a new law has been passed by the government that permanently bans corporations like Blackrock as well as the rich foreign investors that don’t even live here from buying land and houses. + +In addition, any of them that currently own homes in Canada will be legally forced to sell to Canadians, even if it is sold at a loss. + +The only people allowed to buy homes are citizens and permanent residents of Canada. + +Now that these parasites are out of the picture, what would happen to the country’s housing market going forward? Would it be as sunshine and rainbows as some people say? +Over the course of months the GME'S crashes have been harsh. Most of them triggering a SSR. + +End of March/April we have been seeing a lot of low volume(extremely low volumes) and days of side way trades, which is kind of strange in itself. However, it's even more interesting to note we have been slowly falling for the last week now. + +I have a concern the shorts changed up their strategy to make us paper hand. They probably latched onto the idea that the price plummeting seem too artifical to us so we knew the stock was being manipulated. + +I believe their goal now is to simulate a slow fall to make us believe people are paper handing. + +NOTE: It's funny how it skyrockets during premarket and backs to dipping every day now - only to skyrocket again during premarket + +TL:DR: +🚀💎🙌 +🦍💪🤝 +If you check my bio and previous comments and posts, I'm 100% bullish on GME and an upper end XXX holder. #NotAShill + +There's a LOT of shit going on right now in the bullish world of GME that WILL moon. + +There's a ton of DD of how GME is shorted through ETFs. Tomorrow, 3 major GME ETFs go go REG SHO. XRT is one example. + +GME is on SSR tomorrow. I know I know, SSR means shit by itself, but there's many compounding factors right now. + +Options keep getting shut down as FUD and downvoted to oblivion. I give y'all one guess how they dropped the price $20 today? It wasn't pure shorting, it was ITM put options. Yes, the taboo "options" we're the reason. This is known. + +Since the price was shorted to fuck today, know what would make the price skyrocket like last January? ATM, ITM or near the money calls. I'm not talking about weeklies. That's stupid. I'm talking 2-5 months out. Calls for 140, 150, 160 etc. Calls which went cheap as fuck for a while today. Remember gamma ramps? Remember how it was proven that gamma ramps lead to ganne squeezes lead to short squeezes? You can't get there without options. SMART options. Not weeklies. + +CES 2022 is going on in Vegas right now. Know who's in attendance? GameStop and tons of NFT firms. What do we want? An NFT marketplace. When do we want it? NOW! + +GME is entering an FTD cycle right now that not only mimics last January, but is like a CAt 6 hurricane compared to last year's CAT 2 hurricane. It's potential is explosive. Liquidity is bone dry. + +Now that I've listed 6 incredibly bullish things GME has going for it at this given moment, I'm gonna be real. Clean up the fucking sub. + +Superstonk right now is by FAR the premier GME sub on Reddit with the most users. The sub is full of spam. Literal spam. DRS is a really awesome way to lock the float, but even by this subs own estimates, the float will not be locked at it's given rate till june-ish. It's annoying as fuck to have your shares already DRS'd and then have to scroll through 20-30 posts where someone DRS'd 4 shares and is like "Im ChAnGING dA sToNK mErKET aNd hEdGiES fUKT!!?!?". + +Seriously. A DRS post with 4 fucking shares gets 5k upvotes and goes to the top of "hot" drowning out all the DD, Possible DD, Speculation and Opinions. As well as some pretty awesome and viable quants. It's karma farming. It's bullshit. 4 fucking shares means nothing to SHFs. + +My proposal if youve even read this far without downvoting me is this... + +Keep the DRS bot running and update the subject line of the DRS sticky to include the number of DRS shares. Either delete the DRS posts after the bot counts them with a bit message to the user like "thanks! Your DRS has been added to the count" or require DRS to be posted to the Sticky and counted there. + +There's so much going on in GMErica right now it's insane. It's all getting drowned out by purple circles and it's annoying as fuck. To anyone who might reply "BuT tHE bYsTAndER eFfEcT!!" I say fuck that. Anyone who's about to jump in the GME rocket ship at $130 to help push us to the moon need info. They don't need 50 fucking purple circles with 4 DRS's shares. + +They need DD, Possible DD, Speculation and Opinions. If a new investor comes to Superstonk and all they see is 400 purple circles they're gonna be like "WTF is this shit? This is a cult. I'm out". + +I'm not saying DRS is bad. I'm not saying we don't need to keep count. I'm saying this.... Find a better way to manage it. If we want new apes to trust the DD and learn from the ever evolving DD, this sub needs to be cleaned up. + +/EndRant. + +Edit: spelling mistakes. ETF, not EFT + +Edit/clarification: I'm not shitting on x or 4 share holders. It sounds that way but it's not what I meant. 4 was a random number I pulled out of my ass to elaborate on how DD where someone spent 5 hours quanting data that 98% of us can barely comprehend gets 30 upvotes but a picture of a purple circle (no matter 4 or 4000 shares) gets instant thousands of awards and upvotes. +The Leak is enormous… 128 GB. I will not post a link to said 4chan post, since I guess the linked files/torrent are 100% illegal. But [here is a screenshot](https://ibb.co/Pxv5fZP) + +This is a big hit against Amazon and we‘ll get a brief look into their playbook once information about the unreleased Steam competitor will come in. I’m curious if there will also be some NFT hints too for example. + Can anyone confirm me this. + +British Land Company PLC is currently traded at 400 GBP. + +Dividend paid by this company amounts to 0.10 GBP (can't link) + +Is it really pennies? Isn't BLND one of the biggest REITs in the UK? +How is the value of US dollars higher right now with a higher inflation rate than last year with a sizeably lower inflation rate? Shouldn't the higher inflation rate make USD a lot cheaper? +> $4.1m of COVID related receivables from ATO (JobKeeper) and landlords (rent relief) at 30 June 2020 + +> Total dividend for the year of 47.5 cps (FY19: 45.0 cps), up 5.6% on last year + +https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200806/pdf/44l7hlpq5376jy.pdf + +Posting this as most people think JobKeeper was intended to help individuals, but it was actually intended to help businesses and investors. + +And of course NSK was not the only company to do this, just an example. Another good one is KSC where their profits equals amount received in JobKeeper. +I'm well aware of subprime mortgages . I know that many mortgages were given to people who were extreme risks. My question is though, did those people just start defaulting for no other reason than having questionable finances or was there some other catalyst that made subprime borrowers all start defaulting at around the same time? Basically, was there already a small recession starting that was exacerbated by people defaulting on their mortgages or was the defaulting the major cause of the recession? + +&#x200B; + +This defaulting, in turn, caused the collapse of many investment banks because they held CDOs backed by MBSs, correct? Because of the crisis, investors perceived the Icelandic banks to be increasingly risky which led to the major crisis in Iceland? Why did American investment banks failing lead people to lose confidence in Icelandic banks? What are the specific reasons? Thanks +Of late, we see many global currencies are weakening against the USD, and for weaker economies, it is quite predictable that they will weaken further. + +My question is , knowing this, if my base currency is USD, how can I profit from this? For instance, if I buy 100 turkish lira for 1 USD and then it weakens to 150, I still get back only 1 USD. I'm confused. + +Edit: Just for clarity, this post is purely for academic purposes. I don't have any intention of actually doing any trades. + +&#x200B; +**YouTube Premium Family (£18/m): cancelled** \- too good of a time sink esp. without annoying ads. + +**Netflix (£10/m): cancelled** \- too good of a time sink to keep around. Although many of the movies have amazing production values but still absolutely suck as movies. Zero reason to keep this around. + +**Amazon Prime (£7/m): cancelled** \- I stopped watching Prime a while ago but with Netflix cancelled I would likely use this which would be another time sink. The free delivery is awesome but I can’t help but think it is causing both us to order more things than needed. So, an experiment- let’s see how much we spend on postage a year and of it changes our spending habits when delivery is not free. + +**Disney Plus (£8/m): cancelled** \- this is amazing but I’m mostly caught up with MCU and will do another binge catch up for a month a couple of times later on in the year perhaps. + +Mostly I simply cannot afford to spend so much time watching videos in 2022. + +Is anyone else cancelling any video services and why? + +Edit: Updated cost of YouTube Premium Family +Retail investors lose money because they try to play hedge funds at their own game. Hedge funds have better information, better execution, and more resources. Very few retail investors can beat the market with these kinds of disadvantages. But it is possible to win by playing a game in which you have an advantage. + +**Patience** + +The biggest advantage that retail investors have is time. Professional investors are judged monthly. Waiting until an idea works out, usually, isn’t an option. If an idea will only work out in a year, it is too late. By that time, the fund could have shut down, and investors redeemed all their money. + +Retail investors face none of these pressures. If an idea doesn’t work out now, that is okay. Hold onto the idea, wait for the fundamentals to come good, and be patient. + +This isn’t an excuse to hold onto losers, we are looking for undervalued situations with no obvious catalysts. Often, catalysts can’t be predicted, this makes it difficult for professionals to participate in many situations that are undervalued. But retail investors can hold onto these situations knowing that patience will compound their advantage. + +**Quality** + +It gets even worse for professional investors: the market is composed of many other professional investors, their inability to act with patience (or the inability of their investors to do so) actually causes mispricings. + +Performance chasing excerbates cycles. If the market moves up, everyone has to buy. If it falls, everyone has to sell. As a result: low-beta, less volatile, high quality stocks out-perform. + +High quality companies are usually investing capital at a high marginal rate, they grow consistently, their advantage actually compounds over time, and most of their outperformance accrues in bear markets. For professionals, there is often no compelling reason to own stocks like this: no catalyst, and they only outperform in downturns but it is more important to chase performance in a bull market because that is when you can gather asset and fees. It actually makes more sense for professionals to own low-quality trash that you can, hopefully, flip before everything blows up. Retail investors can take advantage of this. + +Briefly: finance theory predicts the opposite. This tells you everything you need to know about how useful most finance theory is. + +**Size** + +This is more straightforward: retail investors can invest in small-caps, professionals cannot. Small-caps are more likely to be mispriced. + +The point at which size limits your actions as a fund manager is lower than most people think. Once you pass £1bn, the UK market becomes very small. Even if you are running less than £1bn, you have issues with liquidity particularly after Woodford. If redemptions start, you have to sell positions which moves prices against you, which could trigger more selling, etc. Even focused small-cap managers will run portfolios with hundreds of stocks to improve liquidity (incorrectly, liquidity is pro-cyclical). This guarantees a mediocre result even in the best case. + +Being able to pick these situations where you have an advantage is huge. + +**Execution Costs** + +The professional's advantage here has fallen significantly over the years but overtrading is still the easiest way to harm performance. Most retail investors overtrade, they hold too many positions, and they make too many transactions that don't enhance returns in excess of transaction cost. + +It is very easy to justify endless trades in your portfolio. The market is always producing information, there are thousands of companies that you could own at any time, and there will always be some combination of companies that outperforms what you already have. Before you make a decision, think carefully: am I going to beat the transaction cost on this trade? + +**Information** + +The gap here is significant. This is how some professional investors do so well despite the huge roadblocks in their way (picking your investors carefully is important too). In many ways, the information gap seems to be insurmountable. + +In most cases, it probably is. Most people don't have the time or resources to dedicate to learning. You cannot compete without a comprehensive knowledge of accounting, finance, etc. And you need a few hours every week to go through financial reports, and related news. Even if you have the basic knowledge, institutions have teams of people, effectively unlimited budget to hire experts, etc. But it isn't hopeless. + +First, retail investors can acquire the basic knowledge: accounting, finance, etc. My personal view on this has varied signficantly over the years: most people fail to make this investment in knowledge, and they are usually unaware of how little knowledge they have. But if you have the interest and time, you can teach yourself accounting, you can teach yourself finance, it is possible. You cannot skip this step though. + +Second, the informational advantage that professional investors have in researching individual stocks is overstated. + +Yes, if the average retail investor dives into some random industrial stock then they are unlikely to have an advantage (unfortunately, this is what most people do). But if you build your knowledge slowly on a limited area, take the time to work out what information is important, and focus on the situations I mention above where professionals can't participate then this disadvantage is signficantly reduced. + +Professional investors have access to large quantities of information, but the quality of information is low. Their basic knowledge is good, but reading an accounting textbook won't turn you into Warren Buffett. Professionalism is not competence, it is just a lower bound on ignorance. The environment that most professionals work in is also highly detrimental to returns: overwhelming rivers of useless information, compliance, training, pointless meetings, etc. So more hours in the day doesn't automatically convert to productivity. + +If a retail investor takes the time to carefully parse information, learn what information is important, and then invests in finding answers it will take longer but that is the only real disadvantage. Whether most retail investors can attain that level of insight is, however, not clear to me. + +**Summary** + +* Make sure you are being paid to wait - low-beta, high-quality stocks. +* Focus on low-efficiency situations - small-cap, no meme stocks, no mega-cap stocks. +* Don’t overtrade. +* Invest in basic knowledge: understand accounts, understand finance, etc. Don’t skip this. +* Go slow, build knowledge on a limited area of the market, invest research time wisely. +* Understand that you are at an informational disadvantage most of the time so you have to build an advantage in the minority of situations. +I didn't start investing until late in life. 40 now and started just a few years ago. But with this recent covid dip in the spring, I saw an amazing opportunity to scoop up beat up stocks with wonderful yields, mostly Canadian. + +I want to retire at 55, going to be tough but that is my goal and to live off my dividends. I believe I can do it an anybody on here can as well. So keep compounding those dividends, friends. Cheers. +I know many of these studies have flaws and it’s impossible to know for sure, or even to objectively measure it. + +But in general, is there any consensus or study showing that the majority of economists agree with the DNC or GOP when it comes to the economy? +If there is, is there a point at where it effectively just becomes a form of rent-seeking? + +If there isn't, what policies would be most effective at redirecting corporate revenue towards more beneficial activities? +Hello everyone. I can't understand how the NAV updation is taking place in the aforementioned MF. Suppose S&P rose 1% tonight (Jun 7 morning in US), does the NAV updated in the fund tomorrow morning reflect the latest closed position? Or the closed position of the previous session? I'm asking because I have seen that there have been instances where the S&P index goes up but the NAV goes down in the morning. Thank you for your help! +Yesterday afternoon after I got off work, I stopped by a gas station to get something inside. + +A young man came up to me and asked if he could use my phone to call his mom. I usually am not one to lend out my phone, but with everything going on in the world I figured I could show some compassion. + +So he walked with me inside, at some point he said she wasn’t answering so he would text her. +I then proceeded to check out at the register while he was “texting”. I asked him if he needed gas money and he said no and then we walked back to my car. + +I leave feeling like I did a good deed by helping someone out. + +Well, today I logged into my bank account and saw my account was overdraft by $700. My stomach sank and I looked at where it came from. Turns out, he went onto my cash app and verified through text message. He then proceeded to transfer himself approx. 1300 (most of which I didn’t have). He then quickly deleted all messages between cash app and exited the apps. + +I immediately called my bank and they canceled my debit card just in case and will pursue a dispute once the charge posts. + +While I’m optimistic that the funds will be restored, I just really feel like crap. I had just crawled out of years long debt and was finally starting to slowly save and then Boom! Life is thrown at you. It just feels terrible to work so hard and then get it all stolen by a man abusing kindness. I also attempted to file a police report but the officer called me, I told my story, and then he said he’ll call me back to get more info. He never called back. I wanted to file the police report to make the county aware of this scam that could affect others and to bolster my fraud claim. + +I’m sorry for the rant. If I’ve learned anything it’s too not be too trusting of strangers, which unfortunately I will have to take to heart from now on. + + + +Update 1: The charge posted yesterday evening and my bank automatically submitted the fraud claim. I logged into my bank and account and I was issued a provisional credit. If the transaction is deemed to be legit or the merchant (cash app) issues a credit, the credit into my account will be reversed. + +As far as a police report, I’m going to physically go to the police station to file a report today. I’m also going to see if the gas station has surveillance they would be willing to hand over, I imagine that may be a legality issue but I’ll try it. + +Thank you all for your words of kindness and advice. I honestly appreciate it. A lot of good advice has been given and other scams revealed, so what was intended to be just getting my feelings out hopefully has opened the eyes of others, as myself, in the scams that are lurking. + +A lot of people have mentioned to not let this ruin my kindness, and they are right. I will continue to help others when possible; but I will be vigilant and prepared if they have nefarious intentions from now on. I Thank all of you for your caring words and advice! +Ain't it funny how people who've been ignoring you suddenly change their tune when they want money from you? + +My scumbag landlord and their incompetent rental agents will take at least a week, sometimes up to a month to action concerns I raise such leaking taps, lack of hot water, a window that wouldn't close, and exhaust fan that stopped working leading to mold growth. Last time they were supposed to get in contact with a tradesperson they forgot and I had to email them again. They once took a week to attend to a suspected gas leak. I'm still waiting on the replacement of the exhaust fan. + +Yet on Tuesday when I was a day late with my rent PANIC STATIONS they emailed me twice and tried to call me multiple times + +f\*ck em + +I feel like withholding the money until they've attended to the issues, but they know they hold the power in this stupid market +Hey guys, + +We tend to celebrate winners and downplay losers, I think we should post more about our bad trades rather than winning trades. + +**My biggest mistake:** + +So let me start first, I stumbled upon a bunch of 0DTE SPX trades videos on October and decided to give it a try on November 10th. + +So I went in with a a few spreads on both sides, it was a decent day, I was up like 800 bucks like 2hours before the market closes. + +What happen was that my dumbass didn't close the trade, I was hoping all contracts to be expired worthless because I was pretty delta neutral 1 hour before the closing bell. + +The last 20m really fucked me up, the market suddenly trends downward fast, I ended up with a 4k loss that day. + + That was like my monthly thetagang gain, I managed to make all those back + more profit in the coming months but It still stings today. + +**My lesson overall (not in any partcular order):** + +1. Trade with smaller size if you are doing risky trade(s). +2. 30-45DTE is slow but steady, this is where I made most of my gains atm. +3. Never use all your BP, you need BP to adjust your trades if the market starting to move against you. +4. Try to be as delta neutral as possible. +5. Stay small on meme stocks. +6. Avoid trading on binary events. +7. Never let your options expires, especially the one that are closed to be in the money. +8. Manage your losses early instead of holding and hoping that things will turn around. +9. Sell call spreads on the rip, and sell put spreads on the dip. +10. Close your trades early if already have a decent amount of profit. + +Hopes this help guys, your turn! +**JUST IN NEWS :** + +SEBI Gave some time for the platforms to adjust . + +https://www.sebi.gov.in/legal/circulars/mar-2022/discontinuation-of-usage-of-pool-accounts-for-transactions-in-the-units-of-mutual-funds-two-factor-authentication-2fa-for-redemption-and-other-related-requirements-extension-of-timeline_57471.html + +**New rules are applicable only from July 01 2022.** + +SEBI came up with this circular just now (31st March 2022). So no change for now. Keeping below content as reference. + +__________________________________________________________________________ + +~~Drastic changes from April 1st.~~ + +2 Circulars by SEBI will come in force from ~~April 1st.~~ + +This disables pooled account usage for Mutual funds. + +https://www.sebi.gov.in/legal/circulars/dec-2021/circular-on-mutual-funds_54542.html# + +https://www.sebi.gov.in/legal/circulars/mar-2022/discontinuation-of-usage-of-pool-accounts-for-transactions-in-the-units-of-mutual-funds-clarifications-with-respect-to-circulars-dated-october-4-2021_56887.html# + +**What it means in Simple words** : One has to directly deposit money to AMC i.e, AMC bank account/Clearing Corp Bank Account and cannot deposit in third party vendors/platforms bank account who earlier used to remit money to AMC. + +Here are the implications if you use these platforms : + +**MF Utility** : From April 1st, one cannot invest via NEFT/IMPS/RTGS until further notice + +**COIN** : COIN will have severe limitations . I guess this will be same in any trading/demat platforms used to invest in MF : + + + +>Funds in Zerodha trading account can no longer be used for mutual fund investments + +>For Coin SIPs and AMC SIPs you’ll get a payment link on the SIP date for the payments. For all new SIPs mandates have to compulsorily created. + +>Existing mandates can’t be used for SIPs. + +>For existing Coin and AMC SIPs, a page with all pending orders will be shown and you’ll have to make the payments one by one + +>For lumpsum investments, netbanking, UPI, NEFT and RTGS payments will be available +MF pledging will remain unaffected + +>Existing step up SIPs will remain unaffected, but new step up SIPs will be unavailable. +Both existing and new conditional orders will be unavailable. + +>Existing Zerodha SIPs can be modified. New SIPs cannot be edited or modified. This is because of the new architecture, :frowning: We’ll try to figure out some solution for this once we make the transition. + + +Source : https://tradingqna.com/t/discontinuation-of-pooling-for-mutual-funds-and-how-it-affects-coin/120947/47 + + +**Groww Impact** : https://groww.in/blog/sebi-bans-pooling-money-for-mutual-funds + +**Kuvera Impact** : As per comments in this thread, no impact or change for Kuvera customers. + + +Feel free to share other platforms impact. + +**My Personal Advice** : Do not invest in April 1st/2nd few days. Wait and watch how the platform behaves and then start investing. Like few years back when NACH/NCPI made some changes, we can expect confusion , failed systems on this major change. +The allure of quick money. I hear about a student whose wealth jumped to $110 million overnight, but the question is how often does this happen? And if it happens, how consistently can it happen? Personally, I’d go for the tried and tested method of log-term investing, the kind Warren Buffett teaches. + +What do you think? Who wins in the long run, traders or investors? + +Do you think trading can consistently work in the long run? +Going into these worsening economic conditions I am searching for companies to short. My criteria for companies are those who have high capital expenditure, worsening consumer demand and things which people will drop first in the face of economic hardship. + +To me Netflix best fits this description. I was frankly shocked when I heard about Bill Ackmans bet a few months ago. As many people have already said the product is getting worse, the company needs to spend huge on exclusive content to keep people around and to make matters worse they have a moat that is being drained day by day due to the amount of streaming services producing their own content. + +None of this is news to most people but having the confidence to short is something I see as really important as a way to generate income to put into stocks which are already undervalued and bring hit. Netflix has already fallen huge and there is still a long way to go. I honestly believe their members will be going down a lot over the next year due to people cutting costs and the lack of content and high price. + +What other companies do you see as worthy candidates to short over the next 6 months - 1 Year? +So let me get this straight, + +- Warren Buffet, the king of hodl, is selling a lot of his positions, including banks, and 100% of JP Morgan. https://youtu.be/ZJekc8t0aFo +- Steve Cohen just sold his penthouse, interesting timing, after trying to sell it for 8 years. +- Citadel is executing buy orders through Dark Pools, and selling on the open market, to artificially drive down the price. +- Better Markets is filing a legal brief against Citadel to stop them “from rigging the markets to protect their predatory behaviour.” +- CEO, George Sherman has his contract up for renewal on April 15th (or not). +- GameStop searching for a new CEO. +- (Possible) share recall at some point. +- Shit ton of options expiring this Friday. +- Big Banks release earnings information on April 15. +- The SEC is awaiting to have their new chair nominated. +- Rule 801 and 005 could be passed at any moment. +- The shorts have still NOT covered their shorts. + +Yeah, nothing to see here, move along. + +Post edited for further clarification. +[https://www.livemint.com/companies/company-results/voda-idea-posts-rs-50-922-crore-loss-in-q2-after-agr-verdict-11573742055848.html](https://www.livemint.com/companies/company-results/voda-idea-posts-rs-50-922-crore-loss-in-q2-after-agr-verdict-11573742055848.html) + +[https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/vodafone-idea-posts-indias-biggest-ever-quarterly-loss-at-rs-50921-crore-on-agr-hit/articleshow/72058447.cms](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/vodafone-idea-posts-indias-biggest-ever-quarterly-loss-at-rs-50921-crore-on-agr-hit/articleshow/72058447.cms) + +This loss was on a revenue of Rs 10,844 crore, which has also fallen YoY + +Part of this loss was due to the provisioning of Rs 25,680 crore as a Adjusted Gross Revenue which is to be paid. + +It however was EDITDA positive, at Rs 3347 crore which is jump from Rs 461 crore last year. + +Gross debt is Rs 1,17,300 crore, while cash and cash equivalents was Rs 35,088.. + +&#x200B; + +Now what is surprising is that Airtel and Vodafone has shown strong operating profit margins, even at such low ARPUs. They can survive if the AGR due is deferred and the loan is restructured. +I’m in the fortunate position of being able to purchase a house. + +There’s a really great flat in a very desirable area - large footprint, £390k or thereabouts. I’m a single earner on £80k who would be putting down a 15% deposit. My question is: does this sound like too much? + +I’m a fairly moderate spender and I currently pay £1100 monthly rent without any real hassle. Post-tax take-home is £4500 per month. It looks like the initial mortgage fixed rate implies a monthly cost of £1300 ish - of course, rates do go up. Whilst I’m optimistic about being able to increase my income further, I don’t want to take stupid risks. + +Still. I do worry. It’s a very large debt and because I’m a single earner, I’m vulnerable to any hiccups / loss of earnings. That said it’s hard to find “nice” flats in my general area for much less than £350k - I work from home a lot, so I see this as an important thing to get right. + +The flat is conventionally appealing and the area is doing well, so I don’t believe it would be hard to sell. It also has an extra bedroom that could possibly host a lodger, if required. So I think I do have that in case of emergency. + +What would you advise? +I reported Kim Kardashian to the SEC because she has promoted the "Ethereum Max" scam Crypto, which is down 98% from all time high, to her followers. + +You can report her too [here](https://www.sec.gov/whistleblower/submit-a-tip). +She did only only profit from the scam, but has also put the name of Ethereum in a bad light. +There is no need for a multi millionaire celebrity to steal money from her fans + +[(here you can read an article about her promotion)](https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/kim-kardashian-cypto-ad-singled-out-by-watchdog/ar-AAO9YGt) +So i have seen numerous post last 2 days about coins that clearly are not ETHEREUM, since they are useless shitcoins. + +1.Doge nascar shitpost +2.Doge Elon musk shitpost +3. Safemoon Eth bridge post (debatable since its a bit related to Eth) + +These posts are unrelated to the main purpose of this Sub which is Ethereum, and they have no place here. +I will much rather see some Eth hopium meme than read about how Melon Mans twitter influence on Doge is dying. + +I believe action should be taken, correct me if im wrong. +Im open to discuss as to why you might disagree but i dont see why these shitcoins should appear on our Sub. + +It would be different if we talked about projects with legit usecases related to ETH, for example layer 2 solutions or oracles etc. +But Safemoon and Doge... come on folks +Heya, apes and apettes. It's been a while. As is customary, /u/jsmar18 can confirm that this is indeed me. + +&#x200B; + +I felt it necessary to step out of the mists for a moment to point out some things I've seen apes doing well, and some....less so. Much of what I and former colleagues have been working on has to stay under wraps for now, but I can assure you great progress has been made thus far. + +As I'm sure you can tell, "what's coming" ain't very far off now, and as we inch closer to our ultimate victory, I must ask all of you to continue to embody the principles, morals, and respect that have defined this sub, and the trade as a whole, for going on a year now. I truly believe that the vast majority of you have set aside your disdain for the way things are, in the interests of making them better in the future. However, we cannot afford to be on the fence about these kinds of behaviors. + +There are bad actors among you now. Far more than there ever have been before. What many of you see as forum sliding CS transfer posts are far from it. They are exactly the kinds of posts that we need and should treasure. You know I had been a vocal opponent of DRS in the past, because I simply hadn't had enough experience with it. If I was snippy with you about it before I had properly informed myself, consider this an official apology. As I've said before, if you are with a reputable broker, your shares will be fine, but Computershare is most definitely the way. If you can join the countless others in transferring without great undue costs to yourself, I believe it is wise to do so. And I take no offense to seeing a front page full of DRS posts. In fact, it makes me quite giddy. + +But I have gotten a distinct sense from many of the posts that do break through the Great Purple Cockring Wall that there are initiatives and movements being undertaken that are not in the best interests of apes. I cannot guarantee you that these are being perpetrated and propagated by bad actors, but I can tell you that if I were one, they are exactly the types of initiatives that I would be pushing. + +Case in point: the Citadel Powder Duo. Many of you know my history, and I ask you to keep that history in mind when I say this: Nothing good can come of spreading this far and wide, especially in a disdainful manner, for a number of reasons. One, they are nobodies. Ken and his ilk are the ones perpetrating this. They alone should be the target of our ire. Two, it won't have the effect you think it will. Not only won't Citadel's investors care, they may even support it. We don't have a client list. We can't shake a finger at them and say "look what you support!" And if I'm being blatantly honest with you guys....there may be nothing more effective on this Earth than that fine white powder when it comes to making the mundane interesting and making one care about people (or clientele) they just don't. They're likely doing their very best work on that substance, and you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone with any knowledge of the industry that will outright condemn them for it. + +But most of all: it simply does not matter. You've already won, and it is but a matter of time before you are handsomely rewarded for said victory. All of this, any seedy detail you could ever want, will all come out in the post-mortem, and you'll have all those brand new dollars to hold their feet to the fire in court, should you desire. + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR: This trade, this community, whatever you wanna call it, has always been built on love. Love for our fellow common man, love for the ideals baked into our constitution that were never really lived up to (until now). Continue to share all the wonderful things you'll do with your tendies, and focus less on trying to tear people down, especially if they're not directly involved in perpetrating all this fraudulence. There's no need to give anyone any ammunition to question our morality or sanity, especially since they know damn well this all comes from a place of love and equinimity.** + +**And when all is said and done, I will see you in the mists, my friends. Let the intelligence and compassion that put us in this position to win be what is most apparent about us. Because there's a lot of work to do on the other side of this. But I'm up for it, because I know you're like me and Marshawn: "just 'bout that action, boss."** + +&#x200B; + +edit: look at the top post on the front page. When's the last time you saw 22k upvotes for ANYTHING? Use your heads, apes. This is counter-productive. Plain and simple. +We've been getting submissions about the candidates economic policies. They're worthy of discussion, but we also don't want political content displacing other economics content. So we're trying two sticky megaposts. One for Clinton's plan, one for Trump's plan. This way we can have a discussion on candidates policies without overrunning the sub, like we did with [the economic analysis of Bernie's plan](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/46sx5a/bernie_sanders_economic_proposals_megathread/). + +##Official Candidate Site + +* [Economic Vision: Winning The Global Competition](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/economic-vision) + +##Analysis and Comparison of Plans + +* The Economist: [Trump's Plan For the Economy](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21704792-republican-nominees-ideas-economy-are-thoughtless-and-dangerous-scrimping-sense) + +* Time: [Trump Economic Plan Analysis](http://time.com/4444632/donald-trump-economic-plan-analysis/) + +* Tax Policy Center: [An Analysis of Donald Trump's Tax Plan](http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan/full) + +* Moody's Analytics: [The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic Policies](https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf) + +* Committee for Responsible Federal Budget: [Analysis of both candidates](http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/CRFB_Promises_and_Price_Tags.pdf) and [Executive Summary](http://www.crfb.org/papers/promises-and-price-tags-fiscal-guide-2016-election). Covering debt as a percent of GDP, growth assumptions or tax increases, and a policy cost scorecard. + +* NPR: [Comparison of Plans](http://www.npr.org/2016/08/13/489761605/how-did-trumps-and-clintons-economic-policy-speeches-compare) + +* WSJ: [Economists Who’ve Advised Presidents Are No Fans of Donald Trump - Real Time Economics](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/25/economists-whove-advised-presidents-are-no-fans-of-donald-trump/) +##Fact Check + +* NPR: [FACT CHECK: Donald Trump Unveils His Economic Plan In Major Detroit Speech](http://www.npr.org/2016/08/08/488816816/donald-trump-looks-to-turn-the-page-on-bad-week-with-economic-speech) + +* WSJ: [Fact-Checking Donald Trump’s Speech on the Economy](http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/08/08/fact-checking-donald-trumps-speech-on-the-economy/) + +##Other + +* Bloomberg: [Here's the Economist Whose Ideas Guide Trump](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-01/peter-navarro-is-the-economist-whose-ideas-guide-trump) + +##Resource Recommendations + +If you have any other articles on Trump's economic plan, please post here or [PM me](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=geerussell&subject=Trump%20Megathread%20Suggestion) and I'll get it into the body. Articles must be written by an economist, rely heavily on analysis by an economist, or include simple fact checking. +The BTC that I deposited into GDAX on 11/30 has still yet to be credited to my account (tx has over 4000 confirmations). This is after having no issues with gdax for years. + +After calling, emailing, and receiving only template responses at best from Coinbase, I’m at a loss for what to do. + +If you’re considering trading, please for your own sake check out alternatives. I’m not saying Coinbase is a fraud, I’m just saying they’re spread too thin in case you actually do need to get in touch with their staff. I’ve personally moved all btc to fiat and fiat to btc to Gemini. + +edit: case ID 2652513 +[relevant blockcypher of btc tx](https://live.blockcypher.com/btc/tx/851043e1679cb8738ca39b5490da40a5dd6baefa7f4ee796dd4c666f478c4bdf/) + +edit2: WE DID IT!! Finally received a real response from support, and got my btc credited. Definitely not a coincidence, guys. Thank you all for the upvotes/help! +My wife passed away on Thursday at just 34 years old. The house we built together was in hers and her mothers name. I am not on the mortgage/title due to having bad credit at the time we purchased 8 years ago. I have been paying the mortgage all this time. Do I have any legal right to the house? I don't really care about the money. I just can't bear the thought of losing the home we made together. Any advice you could give me would be seriously appreciated. I'm in Alberta, Canada if that matters. Please bear with me if I don't make a lot of sense. The pain is unbearable. + +Edit: I should probably mention my wife did not get around to writing a will. + +Edit 2: I am truly overwhelmed by the outpouring of support. I really don't know what to say. Eloquence isn't exactly my strong suit. And I'm having a particularly hard time finding words right now. The loss is immense. And it keeps feeling bigger by the hour. I need my Ashley so much. At the risk of uttering a cliche, she truly was my other half and best friend. It doesn't feel real, yet it's so real I don't know how to cope. +For some reason, I have a massive urge to share our story and the love we had for each other, with the world. Can you kind people let me know where I could post our story and some photos? I will also keep updating everyone as things unfold over the coming days/weeks. Should I do that here? Thanks again. +Degiro didn't handle the situation perfectly BUT at least they didn't outright stop the ability to buy like other brokers. + + +Degiro message that appears in broker: + + +Trading in GME & AMC possible with Limit orders + +Dear Investor, + +Due to extreme market conditions in AMC Entertainment Holdings (US00165C1045) and GameStop (US36467W1099) the order types with non defined execution price are currently not available. This is to protect our clients. Trading in these stocks is possible with regular limit order. No extra fees apply. Order types for other products are not affected. + +Kind regards, +DEGIRO + + +I do think they deserve some props when compared with other EU brokers out there, would have been easy for them to follow everyone else. +Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund Public Investment Fund (PIF) is all set to pick up a 2.33 per cent stake in Indian oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries' Jio, for an estimated $1.5 billion. + +If PIF comes on board, Jio Platforms will have diluted 25 per cent of its equity, the report said adding that is the maximum the company intends to dilute to financial investors. +RuPay card is India’s own card and payment gateway system, developed by the National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI). + +Visa, Mastercard, and American Express are also payment networks and have huge market share across India. Why do we need a domestic payment system when there are several well-functioning global networks like Visa, MasterCard, and American Express? + + +[https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/issue-only-rupay-cards-seed-all-accounts-with-aadhar-by-dec-fm-to-banks-120111001413\_1.html](https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/issue-only-rupay-cards-seed-all-accounts-with-aadhar-by-dec-fm-to-banks-120111001413_1.html) +Hear me out... + +Let's say you receive an unwanted and poorly composed shot of someone's junk (I'll also assume you're a lady, since they get the vast majority of them). + +Don't delete that thing - mint it as an NFT and credit the sender as the original artist. + +Then, send them an invite to buy their art and remove it from the blockchain. If they don't, their name and nads will exist forever more in the very public blockchain, for all to see. + +The best part is there's only like, what, 3.75 billion d*cks on the planet, and if men get discouraged from sending them, they become SCARCE. + +The market cap potential is enormous. I've done some analysis, and predict d*ck pic NFTs could hit $1 million in the next 5 years. + +Now is the time to get involved and start DCA (d*ck, camera, action!) into this exciting new project. + +Edit to add for everyone asking how you can prove its that person's dick: it's really simple. You can prove its theirs by getting them to send you another picture of their dick, and checking if they look the same. This is called Proof of Dick. + +The upside of this, is that now you have TWO dick pics, so you've basically doubled your money. +Is there something missing from Mint, Personal Capital, YNAB, or other tools? Do you not trust them? Did you spend so much time getting your spreadsheet "just right" that you can't dare abandon it? + +To be clear, I'm not shilling for any of those, I'm just genuinely curious. And I wonder if it's something specific to this community and their investments (e.g. how to value your business)? +The utilities company made a mistake and added a 0 instead of a . when charging my credit card. For some reason the CC company didn't find anything wrong with a utilities charge of $41,000 even though my credit limit is less than that, and let the charge go through. Now both companies are blaming the other and saying they can't do anything about it. Utilities company is telling me to file a dispute with my cc provider, they're saying they can't take the charge off. Eventually the utilities company sent me a form that's not even meant for this type of issue, so I don't know if filling it out will even do anything. What are my options if this form doesn't get the issue resolved? It's already been a few weeks. + +Edit: Wow this really blew up, thanks for all of the helpful responses. I originally posted this for my dad thinking I'd get 2 or 3 replies. Since this is getting so much attention I thought I'd make some clarifications. + +The credit card is Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards. Credit limit is around $30,000. My dad received a confirmation email from the utilities company but never a call or any confirmation from the CC company. He said he clicked to pay the full amount of 41.84, then when submitting he got an error and checked his email and saw the confirmation show up. When he went back to the page he saw that it was complete so didn't think any more about it. + +I think it's possible he hit 41084 instead of 41.84 by accident, but the charge should never have gone through. It was above his credit limit, he pays roughly the same amount every month, it was for a single home utilities... + +My dad had to call the CC and Utilities company back and forth like 5 times before the CC company finally sent him a dispute form (I mistakenly thought that it was the utilities company earlier). However, this form is a general "Credit not processed" form with no really relevant questions to what's going on. This was sent back in a few days ago and still waiting to see what will come of it. Others have mentioned RegZ, I don't think my dad brought it up so I don't know if that would have made a difference in how they handled it. + +Anyway here's the conf email and dispute form, I couldn't help but laugh when seeing how ridiculous the number is. http://imgur.com/i4JE790 +Just asked a simple question about low maintenance gardening that I wouldn’t have to take care of too much once I move out of my 3 family. I was met with disdain for *exploiting* people’s rights to have a roof over their head. + +Just had to vent about it. +[https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/9/21508964/microsoft-remote-work-from-home-covid-19-coronavirus) + +"Microsoft is allowing its employees to work from home permanently. While the vast majority of Microsoft employees are still working from home during the ongoing pandemic, the software maker has unveiled “hybrid workplace” guidance internally to allow for far greater flexibility once US offices eventually reopen." + +EDIT: the title should be “MSFT letting SOME employees work from home permanently.” +Thanks all for the quick rise to max comments of 100k !! At the request of Reddit admins, we'll lock this thread to help with server performance stuff (I'm not the technical guy). + +To keep discussing the ways we can now financially shame our wives' boyfriends, continue the shitposting here: + +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l4syrd/gme_megathread_part_2/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u). +I have a very small number of shares in private holding companies that I inherited from my grandfather. I've looked at financial statements and the company secretaries have provided a price for accounting purposes that values the stake at about $5 million. This represents a very small share of the company - less than a thousandth of the company. + +The dividends being paid out are very very minuscule relative to the price quoted. I was thinking of trying to exit this position to consolidate my finances and maybe just deploy the money in some index ETF where my control over the access was better. + +I figured that my only option was to talk to existing management in hopes of being bought out. Is this a feasible thing? Some of the management is extended family that I'm loosely acquainted with, but we're not very close. I'm worried about possibly giving offense for wanting to cash out. + +Does anyone have any advice on navigating this? Should I be holding on and collecting the dividend and never selling? I'm worried that as time goes on, I won't know anyone left in the company and have a difficult time talking to someone about potentially exiting. +I am trying to start a thread where advice can be shared for those who have $5,000 or less available for investing. Please feel free to contribute anytime with relevant information. +I recently stumbled across an article talking about Warren Buffett's most valuable contribution to value investors in the way that he thinks about investments. It's all entirely free and can be found in his annual shareholder letters, so I decided that I would go back and take a look at the earliest available one on [this website](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html) and do an analysis. + +# Some Context... + +The 1977 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter is the first publicly available letter on Berkshire’s website. 1977 was the first good year (for the stock price at least) that Berkshire had in eight years. According to [this post](https://boards.fool.com/berkshire-price-history-since-1965-15568119.aspx) Berkshire had an annualized -2.6% return from 1968 to 1976, this was despite a book value increase of 647% during the period. However, at the beginning of 1980 the share price had rocketed up to $290 (compared to $38 in 1976). At the time that this letter was written Buffett was running a company that was severely undervalued which the market refused to realize. This strange occurrence reminds me of the phrase “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Eight years this investment stagnated, even when on a fundamental basis it was growing significantly. + +## Now Into The Letter + +Buffett opens by talking about what defines managerial competence. He says that simply increasing earnings year over year is not impressive by itself. As “even a totally dormant savings account will produce steadily rising interest earnings each year because of compounding.” Instead he believes that “Return on Equity Capital” otherwise known as Return on Equity (ROE) shows the competence of the managers as it demonstrates how efficiently they deploy their capital and resources. + +This is something noteworthy worth exploring. Can looking for stocks with high ROE alone have good returns when compared to the overall market? According to this backtest conducted in [Backtesting-Based Value Investing](http://www.cek.ef.uni-lj.si/magister/smolic1653-B.pdf) the answer is a resounding yes! + +The backtests conducted were from the period of 2001 to 2013 during which the broad market had a total return of 42.31%, one of the flattest decades since the 60s and 70s. + +([See image for reference](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3e321358-a63d-4861-b581-d86d65722076_960x479.png)) + +That’s a CAGR of only 2.75%! However, when we turn to the ROE portfolio, we see a massive outperformance with a 7.96% CAGR. The construction of this portfolio is simple, it consists of 20 of the highest five year average ROE stocks in the S&P 500 with rebalances occurring annually. In fact, if we throw in in a low price to book ratio as well the returns jump to a 9.34% CAGR. + +Now granted, this is only a thirteen year period, but it is significant that this occurred during one of the worst performing decades in history. + +I'm also aware that value investing relies not just upon one factor like ROE, but I think that this is statistically significant because it shows the ties the market has to fundamental ratios when undergoing turbulent or flat periods. + +&#x200B; + +Following this Warren talks about the specifics of some of the companies in his portfolio and how they have been performing. He then goes into the equity holdings of the insurance companies underneath Berkshire Hathaway [which look as follows](https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02c3163c-99c3-491f-97d1-45a1f08ad60a_1220x618.png). + +Not surprisingly, Warren states that the criteria he uses to buy marketable securities hardly differs from the criteria used to acquire a company as a whole. + +His criteria are as follows: + +1. The business needs to be one that can be understood by the investor. +2. The company must have favorable long term prospects. +3. The company must be operated by “honest” and “competent” people. +4. The business must be purchasable at a “very attractive price.” + +The first criteria is one that is often overlooked. We think we know what a company “does” but that is not always the case. A great example of this is McDonald’s. McDonald’s on the surface appears to be a fast food company, but dig a little deeper and you will realize that they are actually in the real estate business and rather, *it is the franchisees who are in the fast food business.* [According to Wall Street Survivor](https://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/mcdonalds-beyond-the-burger/) “In 2014, the McDonald’s corporation made $27.4 billion in revenues, of which fully $9.2 billion came from franchised locations and the rest ($18.2 billion) was from company-operated restaurants” and “McDonald’s keeps close to 82% of all their franchise-generated revenue versus only 16% of its company-operated restaurant revenue.” + +Favorable long term prospects are one of the harder things to quantify or understand, especially in an industry like tech where everything is constantly changing. For Buffett, this has meant sticking to to businesses that have proven long term prospects like Coca Cola, Apple, and Bank of America. + +The third criteria of competent management is also highly important. One need look no further than Berkshire Hathaway itself. Much of its performance over the decades can be attributed to Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s investing prowess and being able to find good value companies. Prior to their acquisition of the company it was largely unknown. + +Finally the last criteria is where we see a large influence by Benjamin Graham. A “very attractive price” usually constitutes a company that is trade very close to or possibly even below its book value. In today’s market this is much harder to come by with the ease of credit and record high CAPE ratio. However, this should not be taken that value investing has fallen out of favor entirely, but simply that it is going through an unfavorable cycle. When the next market crash occurs many companies will return to more reasonable valuations. + +## Another Concept Worth Paying Attention To: + +*We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety. - Warren Buffett* + +The key thing we should be concerned about is the mindset shift when we consider acquiring the company as a whole. It detaches our view of the stock market from “a line that goes up or down that can make or cost me significant sums of money” to investing in concrete businesses. + +Let’s take a step back and look at private equity deals for a minute for comparison. + +In the case of private equity with businesses valued under $5 million they trade hands at a 3-5x EBITDA multiple. In public markets EBITDA is far higher due to the size and stability of the company (closer to a 15x EBITDA). This valuation multiple is highly important to investors because if the multiple is too high then there will be no money to cover the debt service that is usually incurred in the leveraged buyout (up to 90% of the value is usually borrowed). On top of this, it also usually means that investors in private equity at these valuation multiples expect high returns (approximately a 25% CAGR according to [HBR’s Guide to Buying a Small Business](https://books.google.com/books/about/HBR_Guide_to_Buying_a_Small_Business.html?id=Db6ltAEACAAJ&source=kp_book_description)) in order to make it worth their while with low liquidity and higher risk. + +The point in comparing our investments to the way that private equity runs theirs is that we *should* be chasing the same things. Even if our public investments don’t pay their earnings out in dividends *we should act as though they did when choosing them.* The moment we stop doing this we fall prey to buying companies at poor valuations. + +I believe this is the heart of what Warren Buffett is trying to communicate here in regards to public equity markets. + +Hopefully I was able to provide some value with this shareholder letter analysis. I'm curious what you have to think about it. +This is something different to 300K salaries and 2005 Camry ownership… + +My son lost his second tooth yesterday. + +We never have cash in the house and being a Sunday evening, I wasn’t going to the ATM. + +Only note I could find was a $20. My son is now $20 richer. + +What’s the going rate for other homes in Australia? According to the 2018 study of Bluey episode “Markets” it’s $5. + +Have I created a monster with my lazy behaviour? Can I pass this off as temporary inflation that will go back to normal once interest rates rise? +(TL;DR: I worked for an online travel agency that scams people - please avoid their sites, I name them below) + +Hey guys, fellow redditor here with a throwaway account because I don´t want this post traced back to me! :) + +I worked for an online travel agency that has a number of sites: Travelgenio, Travel2Be, Tripmonster, and Schiphol Tickets. All these are the same company. I was on the call center for a while, and we were bluntly told to omit mentioning refunds unless the passenger specifically asked for it, and more things that are a scam, illegal, or just wrongdoing. + +I hope this post can, in a way, give back to this sub that has helped me in a lot of ways.. at least avoiding you or the people you love to lose money or go through an awful time. + +Travelgenio, Travel2Be, Tripmonster, and Schiphol Tickets offer airplane tickets at a cheap price, while also offering "services" like faster customer service, cancellation insurance, flex-ticket service, things like that. As a lot of online travel agencies, they tend to have some sort of "fine print" on what they offer. Their sites are not an exception, I would say they basically run on fine print because it´s just disastrous. + +I will list things that are just plain wrong. Surely there are more, I just won´t waste time thinking forever of all of them because I just need for people to stop getting scammed. I am not a lawyer so I don´t know if the term "scam", "illegal" or whatever legal term I use is correct, all I know is that they get money from people when they shouldn´t, or they take advantage of the situation and demand money that the person in that situation cannot say no. Here it goes: + +* If a passenger wants to cancel their flight, and the ticket is non refundable (by the airline, that is), the person has the right to be refunded the taxes on their ticket. This company I worked for, clearly told us that we could NEVER offer to refund the taxes. Only if the passenger requested to be refunded the taxes, then we should refund the taxes MINUS 50 euros for "administration fees". I will break this down: Ticket = Fare + Taxes. When the airline says "cancellations are non refundable", they are saying "the fare is non refundable". The taxes are legally from the passenger, so the passenger has the right to demand to be refunded their taxes. So the fact that we were told by this company to omit this information to the passengers and keep the money that is legally theirs, we are obliged to steal, and we are called by supervisors when we don´t follow this "rule". Not only that, but if the passenger demands their taxes back, the company takes 50 euros from that refund for making the transaction (note that if the taxes you were going to be refunded were 48 euros, sorry, our administration fees are 50 euros so there would be really nothing left so your ticket is non refundable at all). +* Getting back to the 50 euros thing... Their "administration fee" for whatever transaction (change in flight, cancellation) is 50 euros, and for adding services (aka bags, adding a pet, reserving a seat) is 20 euros. This is only what the company charges per passenger to make any of these changes/additions, this means that if the airline charges you 150 euros for adding a bag, you have to pay them what the airline charges PLUS the fess from the company. Per passenger and per transaction. Travel agencies can charge what they want I suppose, even if I think they are absolutely greedy/crazy for charging what they charge, but the thing is that these things can be done directly with the airlines most of the times and it sucks that people have to lose so much money when they went to these sites looking to save money on the first place. +* People get their flights cancelled or their tickets are never created because of pure wrongdoing. The company has a disastrous training. This means when the call center agents start taking calls and making changes in flights and everything, they have never even done that once, they learn as they go. This means that a lot of times flights get cancelled by mistake, and this is not something that can be undone. Sorry passenger, you will get refunded in a million years (more on this on the next point). Or the passenger payed for everything but the ticket is never issued, because an agent never sent it to the right department (again, because they did it wrong or just forgot that part or whatever, agents should have proper training in order not to play with people´s money and life like this, travelling is not just leisure - people need to work or get a surgery or see their family). The number of times people have called me from the airport saying "the airline says I don´t have a ticket, but I payed for everything" is just so effing high. There are more examples like this, people that have paid but their bags were never added so they have to pay more at the airport directly, the change in flight is not what the agent told you via phone, I don´t know, it just goes on forever. +* Refunds take an average of 3 (!!!) months to be completed, but for a while now they have been waaaay behind schedule, this means the refund can take a lot more. 7 months? 10 months? Yep, totally "normal". The company tells their agents that they have to say thet they depend on the airline to refund them the money so they can refund the passenger. The thing is, if a person books directly with an airline and the passenger cancels the ticket, the refund is completed well within 15 days. This is for the vast majority of airlines, I have never heard of them taking longer. So why a travel agency takes this absurd amount of time to refund the passenger is not only shady, but not a good practice. People I have spoken to on the phone have been waiting almost a year for a 4-digit refund, that is not a small amount of money. Even if it was way smaller, I remember a lady telling me "I need those 200 refunded as soon as possible, I have to eat!". + +As I said before, there are more things, those are the biggest ones I can think of right now. They play with people´s money, and with their employee´s too. You can probably imagine that there is a pretty bad work environment, and there is. + +My goal with this post is to spread the word, to prevent you or anyone you know to avoid Travelgenio, Travel2Be, Tripmonster, and Schiphol Tickets. Don´t get tempted by their prices, because you can possibly have a very bad experience, were you can lose a lot more money than if you just purchased a ticket directly with the airline. + +Thanks for reading, I hope this helps you in some way :) +lurker; throwaway account + +In 2017, I pulled it off. I made over $2M in personal income (salary+RSUs), but owed zero Federal Income Tax. If it wasn’t for AMT, I would have literally paid nothing to the government. As it was, I ended up paying just under 2% effective tax because of AMT. I did this all legally and I’m confident it would withstand an audit (my ex-IRS CPA agrees). How did I do this? It was a combination of depreciation on rentals where my spouse qualifies as a Real Estate Professional, and Intangible Drilling Costs (IDCs) for oil & gas investments I made. I ended up with a negative AGI (bet you didn’t think that was possible for an Individual Tax Return), and in addition to the minuscule tax owed for 2017 I got to carryback that Net Operating Loss (NOL) to my 2015 Individual Return and get a few hundred thousand dollars back that I had already paid to the Feds back in 2015 greatly reducing the effective tax rate for that year as well. + +Sounds great right? It demonstrates that if you deeply understand the tax code and orient your investments to take advantage of the incentives our Congress has baked into it, and you have enough wealth to begin with, you can legally pay little to no taxes on massive income. But I feel guilty about it. Not that I did anything wrong, but I worry about the future of our country and our democracy when people like me can do this and do it repeatedly. The charges of the “rich not paying their fair share” ring true to me, our institutions and infrastructure will decay over time when so many earned dollars avoid tax. Let alone the social unrest that history shows happens when inequality stays too high for too long. The janitor and the teacher likely pay much higher than 2%. Even if they wanted to replicate what I did they can’t - the janitor can buy Exxon Mobile stock but he doesn’t get to take the IDCs, Exxon does. The teacher can airbnb a room in their house but they don’t get the passive loss limitation exemption I do. + +Even worse, this isn’t a case of deferring taxes - as long as I hold these assets until I die (which is the plan) my heirs get a stepped up basis and could liquidate everything and not pay a penny in tax. Yes, there is an estate tax but it only kicks in when assets exceed $23M and even though I’m above this there are other creative things to minimize/avoid it (ex: GRATs). + +Does anyone else here pay ridiculously low effective tax rates? Do you feel any guilt about it? + +We have an election coming up where multiple candidates want to “soak the rich.” I don’t think a wealth tax is the way to go for multiple reasons but I would like to see certain loopholes closed: carried interest, high estate tax limits, stepped up basis, IDCs. I realize that these incentivize certain things, for example we would drill far fewer holes in the ground looking for oil if it wasn’t for IDCs. Maybe you like that because of what it’s doing to the climate, but there’s also an argument to be made that we’d simply be paying higher prices for foreign oil and consuming just as much of it. +I barely qualified as an accredited investor in the past and took some probably unadvisable risks with my new found investment options. + +I invested heavily into 3 pre-IPO companies (almost 35% of my net worth) and cashed out as soon as the lock up period ended. Luckily I did since they haven't faired well since, but I was able to realize my gains by a little bit of luck and a little bit of understanding their trajectories. + +The companies were: + +Snowflake: Got in at $85/share and after the lock up period floated around $240/share and cashed out almost instantly. + +Palantir: Got in at around $6/share and exited after the lock up period around $24/share. + +And last but not least UIpath: Got in at $40/share and cashed out immediately once the lock up period ended immediately cashed out since it was dropping a bit since the IPO day at around $55/share. + + +I'm still holding 2 private companies pre-IPO shares, namely SpaceX, and after this I am done. (I rolled over a large portion into these last 2 companies). + + +My NW will be between $3-5 million I figure once Starlink goes public (since they're under SpaceX once they go public I'll realize those gains) and they're rumored to go public as soon as next year. + + +My main question is, I've gotten lucky and this amount of money is entirely new to me. I certainly don't want to work anymore so I'm here to ask specifically the people in my potential NW range, what would you recommend? + + +The market is a little crazy right now which I'm sure we all know is temporary. I'm debating keeping 85% cash and 15% if anything in some private companies as opposed to public markets for the time being. Once the market corrects itself I want to invest in ETF's or mutual funds (particularly a vanguard). + +Main thing is: Are my short term plans okay? +January holder here. One of my biggest concerns in the early days of this whole saga was centered around the Prisoner's Dilemma. If you aren't familiar with the Prisoner's Dilemma, imagine two people involved in a crime separated in different cells. They both know if they keep their mouths shut they will both go free. The wrinkle is the DA has offered a deal - the first person to rat out the other goes free. This changes the whole dynamic. The only way to *guarantee* you go free is to snitch on your partner. The outcome which will help everyone get what they want is now the riskier path to take. A version of this was depicted in *The Dark Knight* with the two ferries armed with bombs and each detonator was given to the other boat. + +The first time I learned about GME, I understood it. This is not my first rodeo in the stock market and you didn't have to explain what a short squeeze was to me, I just needed to see the numbers. The numbers on GME showed what was possible - a short squeeze like the world had never seen before. However, because of the unique distributed nature of this short squeeze by retail investors an enormous Prisoner's Dilemma formed and I was unsure how this would play out. GME is a very unique situation and I don't know of any historical examples like it. + +Holding GME stock was like being a prisoner with **1,000,000 other prisoners** anxious to get out and make a quick buck. If a third of them decided to sell, the whole thing could fall apart and we'd all leave empty handed, or worse, broke. + +But you know what? I'm still here. And you're still here. Despite two days that had insane price drops and immense pressure on apes to sell (especially those who got in at high prices), we're still holding strong. In fact, many of us doubled down and bought more. It actually gives me hope in humanity that millions can trust others enough to put their own hard earned cash at risk. It's kind of...inspiring. + +My sister bought GME at $320 in January. She hasn't sold a single share. Do you know why she hasn't sold? It's because she trusts you. I no longer think about the GME Prisoner's Dilemma because I trust you too. We've been thrown under a giant mountain of weight and told to sell our shares and protect our money. + +But the mountain didn't crush us. + +It just turned us into diamonds. +"All five of South Korea’s licensed, fiat-trading crypto exchanges have announced they will delist [Litecoin (LTC)](https://swapzone.io/currencies/litecoin) after developers rolled out the Mimblewimble Extension Block protocol". + +According to Cryptonews.com Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax decided to delist LTC. It's the first time for the South Korean crypto industry that all major exchangers made such a decision. + +In Upbit’s statement, which was similar to those of its rivals, the exchange said that transaction support would last until June 20, with withdrawals allowed until July 20. + +Last month, the protocol, which allows users of the Litecoin network to choose whether or not to make their transactions confidential, was presented. According to exchanges this update broke South Korean law which forbids exchanges from listing such tokens, insisting that all transactions be screened for possible money laundering violations. + +Is it the end for LTC? + +[Source: cryptonews.com \/ AdobeStock](https://preview.redd.it/gj2f8kpaqe491.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=796bdc069f9725b0009b13ef3a80a9234e901641) +I am definitely on the more cautious side here, but how do people from $10M-$100M in wealth here all think about security, privacy and safety? + +EDIT / Some clarifications here: + +* **I have a highly elevated public profile**, this has resulted in me getting undue and unwanted attention. And I surmise makes me more of a target, given what I've seen. +* I would estimate my public profile and public appearances are **10-100X the frequency/visibility** of the average HNW person, as a function of my job and industry. +* I may be more cautious than the average person, but **this caution is informed by real past experiences of mine, without getting into too much detail.** + +Security + safety = not getting hacked, kidnapped, robbed, having you or your family put in physical or financial harm, etcetera + +Privacy = staying anonymous, etcetera + +**The general good practices I have ascertained and deduced include:** + +1. Live in a VHCOL area where you are not in the top 10% of wealth, so you are not a special target +2. Using a burner phone/number/email for most things +3. Not giving real name, birthdate, address +4. Having a second mailing address +5. Buying properties through LLC's +6. Triple background check all service providers (cleaners, etc.) +7. Reducing social media (unfortunately, I am already in the public eye a lot) + +**What else do you do? Off the top of one's mind, what about:** + +1. Personal cybersecurity consultants who run audits +2. Personal security guards +3. Owning self defense +4. **What else would I be missing?** + +**What else would I be missing? Would appreciate any other guidance here, this is relatively novel and new to me. Thank you all in advance for consideration.** + +P.S. I've found this, which addresses some of my queries, but definitely not all: [https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/f6kqnj/a\_fat\_guide\_to\_cybersecurity/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/f6kqnj/a_fat_guide_to_cybersecurity/) + +I hope this is helpful to others. +Boyfriend has started daytrading last week. So far we are down I want to be supportive he really believes this is something that he truly wants to do. I want to be supportive as well and I just am feeling sad that from the get go he’s not doing well. Is there some advice you guys can give me or maybe insight on how your girlfriends reacted when you started? +Not the stock. The **actual company.** + +If we all get together and own 51% then we will own this entire website. + +We could make the rules, profit from the advertising, and finally get paid for the memes we make. + +I've even come up with a list of things we could do as new owners: + +1. Reddit mods can apply for paid-internships at Reddit. This is much closer to having a real job than what they currently do and would benefit the organization. +2. Your flair is your official title at the company. IE: instead of "CFO" you'll be "PotatoFart" +3. NSFW posts will receive special protections--and if you happen to work in our new skyscraper then NSFW posts are automatically considered SFW. +4. Everyone gets a turn in the corporate jet. +5. Elon becomes a mod. He can also apply to become a paid intern. +6. We have a monthly party on our company yacht: *The S.S. VisualMod*. +7. Our corporate cafeteria is a dining hall with fast food restaurants along the side--but they're all Wendy's. + +I think this is a great idea. + +Keep it high and tight. + +👖🚀👖🚀👖🚀 + +Edit: Well, if you guys are going to spend money on awards for this dumb post IDK how we're going to buy enough Reddit shares to own the company. Mission aborted. + +Also, it seems that roughly 23% of Redditors don't like a fun joke--so we wouldn't want to share equity with you losers anyway. +Fidelity’s data show hundreds of thousands of people with million-dollar retirement accounts, and I say hurray for them. Their golden years are looking good. + +[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-americans-have-1-million-saved-for-retirement-than-ever-before-11629478108](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-americans-have-1-million-saved-for-retirement-than-ever-before-11629478108?mod=MW_article_top_stories) +[magazine] + +I was recently gifted a subscription and love it, though I've generally been out of reading/studying the subject since early/mid 1990s. + +What should I watch out for in their writing, and are there any common problems that stand out in their analyses? + +Thank you. +Just passed $3,000/year ($250/month) with my TFSA passive income portfolio. Goal would be to reach $10,000/year. I have just under 50k invested and currently have a 6.06% yield. Im still 34% cash and have been DCAing it. Hindsight it would have been much better to lump sum but I have a pretty low risk tolerance so I chose the DCA approach. **I posted a copy of my portfolio, im looking for advice.** + +Do I have a good sector and geographic allocation? Is there any red flags?Any pointless ETFs im holding? I feel like 46 holdings is abit too much.Im been trying to cut back and stick more to ETFs. But just this morning I added WCN..So anywhere I should cut back? I would feel better with 30 holdings. + +Anyways, I just want to make sure im on the right track and im not missing anything obvious. Would like to hear your opinions or any advice. + +Thanks for your time. + +[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12m5gxam0Hzb3l0aM\_CdSwfDbW-J8NGE8wmcN0RCkjyM/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12m5gxam0Hzb3l0aM_CdSwfDbW-J8NGE8wmcN0RCkjyM/edit?usp=sharing) + +Please note: I know ENB increased their dividend by 3% and REI.UN got cut 33%. I haven't updated the div figures yet but should still be close. Insider buying/selling is not updated yet either. Maybe just ignore my personal notes lol. Also this is just a copy, so it will be outdated as of tomorrow. +Edit: Thank you all for the advice, I tought getting a CC wasn't a big deal but boy was I wrong. + +Also thanks for the gold, kind stranger! It's my first one! + +Edit 2: Thank you all so much for your kind advice, also to the ones not giving real advice, you guys made me laugh. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 131072 days + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +If you want to save money, think about how much you spend at a gas station each week. If you are addicted to something sold at a gas station, add up how much you spend on that item per week and multiply it by 52. That daily energy drink adds up! It is estimated that smoking costs a smoker $1-2 million over their life. Sugar, tobacco, beer, the lottery are all very highly addictive and hurt you greatly physically and financially. Eliminating one of these items can change your financial situation greatly. + +If you absolutely have to have something like an energy drink buy in bulk somewhere else. + +[50 things to stop spending your money on](http://blog.credit.com/2017/05/50-things-to-stop-wasting-your-money-on-172651/) + +EDIT- I just got back from work and can’t believe how much this blew up!! Good tips in here and of course there are always exceptions to the rules. To the people that left comments about how I shouldn’t tell people how to spend their money.... umm this sub is Poverty Finance! I hope it helps someone out there that is trying to do their best to work on their finances and become more aware of how much a daily stop like this can add up. +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/big-investors-are-dying-to-know-what-the-little-guys-are-doing + +Are you young, newly rich from stock trading and ready to take the plunge in options? Wall Street is following your every move. + +With the sway of stay-at-home traders growing and starting to eclipse other influences on equities, figuring out who is doing what among amateur stock dabblers has become a critical mission for big investors. They’re canvassing Reddit threads like r/wallstreetbets and picks at retail brokerages, plugging data into programs and trying to gain an edge. +Some people might have read my message yesterday in which I told about Parity making yet another proposal for recovering the lost funds in their bugged contract. Even if you voiced your opinion yesterday on Github, we need your help yet again. Since I believe this is such an important issue, I have cross-posted this so that hopefully as many people as possible will voice their opinion. + +The proposal itself was accepted for discussion and the discussion has now moved to the following location: https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/eip-999-restore-contract-code-at-0x863df6bfa4/130 + +I believe using a hardfork to fix a smart contract code bug caused by severe negligence (their code handling hundreds of millions wasn't audited) will set an extremely bad precedent and will ultimately tarnish Ethereum's reputation. This is a slippery slope. Immutability is an extremely important property of the Ethereum Blockchain that should be protected. Please take a few minutes of your time to create a account if you haven't already (you can also use your Github account to login), and voice your opinion regarding this proposal. Thank you. +I'm worth $2m at 29, so not fatfire yet (in a 1st world country at least). To get to this point I've just worked away on my own online for 10 years and lived very minimally (I thought, well, I'll get rich and then live the life). I could work more and add to it, but for what, maybe this is enough. + +The problem for me is, having spent so long out, I don't even know how to approach doing anything. People would assume with this kind of situation you'd be living some great life, however. +This ( interview with Andrews Keys: Consensys and EEA) + +"Ant Financial, the subsidiary company of e-commerce giant Alibaba, is also utilizing the Ethereum protocol to develop various applications and platforms. Ant Financial is the company behind the $60 billion financial network Alipay, which is used by 450 million users in China. + +Keys noted: + +- “The services provided by Ant Financial and its affiliates cover payment, wealth management, credit reporting, private bank and cloud computing. Ant Financial is experimenting with Ethereum technology to improve their global payment platforms.” + +The rapid rise in the demand toward Ethereum and the adoption of the Ethereum smart contract technology could allow China to become one of the larger Ethereum exchange markets in the world. + +- At the moment, South Korea is the largest Ethereum exchange market with over 40 percent of the global market share. If China continues to sustain such growth rate, it will see its Ethereum market outpace other regions. + +https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/china-waking-ethereum/ +Hear me out... + +Let's say you receive an unwanted and poorly composed shot of someone's junk (I'll also assume you're a lady, since they get the vast majority of them). + +Don't delete that thing - mint it as an NFT and credit the sender as the original artist. + +Then, send them an invite to buy their art and remove it from the blockchain. If they don't, their name and nads will exist forever more in the very public blockchain, for all to see. + +The best part is there's only like, what, 3.75 billion d*cks on the planet, and if men get discouraged from sending them, they become SCARCE. + +The market cap potential is enormous. I've done some analysis, and predict d*ck pic NFTs could hit $1 million in the next 5 years. + +Now is the time to get involved and start DCA (d*ck, camera, action!) into this exciting new project. + +Edit to add for everyone asking how you can prove its that person's dick: it's really simple. You can prove its theirs by getting them to send you another picture of their dick, and checking if they look the same. This is called Proof of Dick. + +The upside of this, is that now you have TWO dick pics, so you've basically doubled your money. +Alrighty, could someone tell me why we still haven’t raised interest rates and it’s been at a steady 0.25% for over a year now? I get it, pandemic pandemic, but isn’t this hurting the economy on the long run considering the current situation with real estate and how this bubble we are in will simply be a dark hole for Canadian’s income over the next 20ish years. Just wanna hear someone’s take on why we haven’t raised the interest rates yet. +Came across this listing on Zillow and started thinking about what I would do to turn this property into a cash cow (just as a fun mental exercise, it’s too late to buy the property now) + +What would you guys do? + +Self check-in motel? Divide it into apartments? Airbnb? Rent by the room? + +Here’s the link to the listing: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/615-Columbia-St-Elmira-NY-14901/29955925_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare + +Needs a lot of love and isn’t an amazing location so maybe it’s just not worth it and I’m just trying to find a way to make it work just because I like the property from an architectural standpoint. + +I’d love to hear your thoughts! +Just wondering how many other people have allowed dividend investing to change their behavior. + +Because I'm nearing retirement age, I've recently moved most of my investments into high yield ETFs and other dividend paying stocks and I'm finding I've become conditioned to constantly look for dividend payments in my accounts. + +Just like Pavlov's Dogs displayed the results of classical conditioning by salivating in response to a stimulus; I find myself signing on to my account every day and checking the cash value in my settlement account... something I never used to do. + +Getting dividend checks on several days each month has turned me into a Dividend Dog. + +Anybody else dealing with this obsession? +This year I have mimicked superinvestors based on the trades they have made publicly available. Compared to historical data this isn't a strong year per see, but the 8% im at right now beats the market. Is there a similar ETF that just copies the popular investors out there? + +&#x200B; + +Some background: + +I have backtested going back to 1992 and have generated on average 35% YOY simply buying/holding/selling. + +Best year of (135% -- 1998) + +Worst year of (-39% -- 2008) +If they were to make a rule to help retail this shit take them months or years. Suddenly someone has an idea that will go against retail and be used explicitly for crime. Shit takes them no time at all. Unbelievable. Then they have the audacity to delay CAT until god-damned 2024, how fucking pathetic is this? How much more blatant does it need to be before the FBI or some shit gets involved? To be honest I doubt any government division wants retail to win. We are living in a very fucked up system. Just needed to get this shit off my chest. Fuck these guys. + +I will hold til I'm cold, fuckers. + +edit2: I appreciate the awards and comments but for real I don't need anymore notifications, you all can upvote and award actually useful posts instead of this one. Some big brain folks out their deserve more than me. + +edit:spelling +# IMPORTANT EDIT + +**NONE OF THIS IS FINANCIAL ADVICE, I'm literally just talking about numbers, you do you with trades!** + +Some people have expressed concerns that [sec.report](https://sec.report) doesn't seem like a legit website, or that user ChristCraftTexasUSA is showing bot behavior. While I admire and encourage people to always remain skeptical and vigilant, please double check before throwing such claims around. + +Per the bottom portion of the [sec.report](https://sec.report) website [https://imgur.com/a/xgdUY7a](https://imgur.com/a/xgdUY7a) \- It is just a data scraper / aggregator that presents this data from the [sec.gov](https://sec.gov) site in a more readable way. + +The website is about 3 years old going by the age of its twitter account [https://twitter.com/EdgarInsider](https://twitter.com/EdgarInsider) + +And probably, most importantly, you can literally get the source data from the SEC website. Here I am showing the numbers for the June 14 date and where to find them. [https://i.imgur.com/AOIWpT1.png](https://i.imgur.com/AOIWpT1.png) + +Feel free to verify the other two numbers (Oct for GME, Dec for TSLA) for yourself if you like. + +I just want to say that while it's okay to be skeptical, and always challenge the information you are presented with, challenge it by doing some actual digging, not by just throwing accusations around. You may inadvertently hurt someone that is just trying to provide a free service to all of us. Be excellent to each other apes. + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# MAIN POST HERE + +The starting point of my maths: [(1) GME FTD shares Failed to Deliver SEC link: https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109 : Superstonk (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obet09/gme_ftd_shares_failed_to_deliver_sec_link/) + +I think "FUCK ME" is an understatement here. I've been comparing **GME FTDs** with **TSLA FTDs** since TSLA is the more "Volatile" of the stocks out there. The numbers are mind blowing. + +**The very last datapoint** we have on GME is **June 14, with a FTD count of 105,712** + +**The highest ever** nr of FTDs in one day for **TSLA was on DEC 17, 2020, at 1,382,452 FTDs.** + +At first glance, it would look like the tesla number is 10 bigger than the GME one no? Well you'd be right, however we need to remember that the number of outstanding shares for the two companies are wildly different. On Dec 17, TSLA had 905,000,000 outstanding shares, while on June 14, GME had only (assumed) 77,000,000 outstanding shares. + +So if you put these percentage wise: + +\- TSLA: 1382452 / 905000000 \* 100 = **0.1527 % of total shares were FTD** + +\- GME: 105172 / 77000000 \* 100 = **0.1372 % of total shares were FTD** + +So just a random day in June for GME had as many FTDs as Tesla did in its highest day ever in its history. + +So then... the question on everyone's mind... what was GME's highest FTD day? Well you see everyone, **Oct 13 2020: 3,210,148**. On that date, according to ycharts, GME had 65.2M outstanding shares. I'm actually going to go with 70 mill shares as I think the 65M number is wrong. So + +\- 3210148 / 70000000 \* 100 = **4.5% of total shares were FTD. THEY COULDN'T LOCATE 4.5% OF THE GOD DAMN COMPANY!** + +***Flash edit:*** /u/Lilsunshyyne ***in*** [the comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/obh3z3/simple_ftd_math_based_on_uchriscrafttexasusa_post/h3ooj12/?context=3) ***said the following "*** *I think the 65million share number is correct because although they were authorized to sell an additional 2 mill or so shares they hadn't yet at that time (oct 2020)... (this was the first share offering they made this year, to complete their authorized sales from prior authorization). Then they notified us of an additional 3.5 mil shares that was recently completed. So all that to say I think that 65 mil number is correct. Not financial advice...just opinion based upon observation. "* ***and I think they may be correct, so let's do the math with both 65 mill and 70 mill.*** + +*- 3210148 / 65000000 \* 100 =* ***4.93% of total shares were FTD. THEY COULDN'T LOCATE 4.93% OF THE GOD DAMN COMPANY!*** + +SEC what the fuck are you doing??? Seriously who looks at these numbers and goes like "YEP, THIS IS FINE!". Do your god damn job! + +Sources: + +GME FTD data [https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109](https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=36467W109) + +TSLA FTD data [https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA](https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=TSLA) + +GME Outstanding Share Count data: [https://ycharts.com/companies/GME/shares\_outstanding](https://ycharts.com/companies/GME/shares_outstanding) + +TSLA Outstanding Share Count data: [https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/shares\_outstanding](https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/shares_outstanding) + +No fuckery going on here people.... +I had read a post some time ago about the hidden fees from furniture store promotions and their 0% interest deals. Which went into the back of my mind. + +My auto debit email popped up this morning which prompted me to log in and review the statements today. + +We bought a new couch on 07/19/2020 for $1401.69. No interest for 6 months. Why pay it all upfront if I can do smaller payments for free?? Right??? I never paid attention to my auto debit payments not adding up to pay off the cost of the couch in that 6 months. It would have left a $100 balance. + +The fine print shows that if we did not make a payoff payment by 01/11/2021 - we would get charged $659.29 in deferred interest on the couch. Almost HALF the price of the couch just in interest fees had I not checked this! + +Wish I could buy you guys a drink! Thanks again! + +EDIT: Thanks for all the continued advice. I definitely learned a lesson! I'm also glad I could help remind so many others in a similar situation!! It's too easy to set these things up and forget it. Proud of you all! +Hello! + +I wanted to see who’s been able to replace their job income with CSP’s. It doesn’t seem feasible for me to replace a six figure income without having a few hundred thousand in cash to trade with. + +If you have done it how long did it take you to replace your job income? +I work for a company based in California (CA) but I don't work in CA normally. I'm being asked to support a test in CA for the next three weeks. + +The problem is, my program manager just informed me that we'll have to cover our own expenses over the weekend because there's insufficient funds in the program budget, including hotel and food. Normally I travel to a test site with on campus housing and just stay there and drive home on the weekends. This time I won't be able to drive back and forth and there is no on site housing, so it's never come up. + +It doesn't feel right to me. Either they have to pay to cover my expenses while I'm up there or to fly me back and forth...right? + +Edit: this isn't coming from my company, it's from my project. I am an engineer, we have to charge (bill) our hours to specific projects. We don't really have an overhead budget, we bill to projects. My site is low on project funds due to the end of the federal fiscal year. There's plenty of work once the next year of funds are released but that depends on Congress. Until my next year's funds come in, I have to find other work. This is my other work. + +I just want to know for sure that I can tell my program manager he has to pay for my weekend expenses - Google has not been helpful so I figured I'd ask you guys in case someone knew so I have the answer before I go talk to management. + +Edit 2: the fine folks over at /r/legaladvice indicated that CA does require reimbursement of reasonable expenditures related to business travel. https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/legal-and-compliance/state-and-local-updates/pages/tips-for-reimbursing-california-employees-business-expenses.aspx +The gift that keeps on giving: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614289-doj-said-to-be-probing-nikola-on-fraud-claims + +- Another twist in the Nikola (NKLA -8.3%) saga arrives with the Financial Times reporting that the Department of Justice is looking at the company and at least some of the allegations made by Hindenburg Research earlier this week. + +- The latest development follows up on yesterday's disclosure that the SEC was also looking into the allegations against Nikola. +President Joe Biden is expected to propose a new minimum tax primarily aimed at billionaires when he unveils his 2023 budget, according to a document obtained by CNBC. + +Dubbed the "Billionaire's Minimum Income Tax," it would tax U.S. households worth more than $100 million at a rate of at least 20 percent. More than half of the revenue may come from businesses worth more than $1 billion. + +"This minimum tax will ensure that the wealthiest Americans no longer pay less than teachers and firefighters," the document said. + +We all know that more than 80% of the wealth in this country is concentrated in the hands of 20% of the people. In the stock market, a large number of billionaires have gathered. + +So, will the Biden administration be boycotted by the wealthy, ultimately causing the Biden administration’s policies to fail in Congress? Maybe he just proposed such a policy to please the people and ease domestic conflicts? And actually he knew that such a policy would never be approved by Congress? +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +I have been working on the Ultimate Wargame Theory for almost two months now. Then today I had an aha moment: + +**I think what I’ve learned might explain RRPs and the role of Total Return Swaps (TRS) in the Gamestop saga and the global economic volcano.** + +This wargame short story will also serve as a foundation for what’s to come, because there is a lot to take in. For now, enjoy this theory on RRPs, TRS, and the full extent of what Apes are up against. + +**tl;dr:** + +1. I explain Total Return Swaps and how they potentially connect Gamestop to Reverse Repos +2. I open new possibilities for understanding short interest, how the game is played and prolonged, and shed light on new possibilities about the March event and May run-up. I'm hoping our technical DD wizards will take this information and run with it +3. I explain where the MOASS money comes from +4. I explain the mechanics behind this financial leviathan, and how it might explain why the market is so overleveraged as well as connect it to the arbitrage profit machine explained in [Where are the Shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/)? +5. I identify nearly 100 hedge funds connected by more than 1,500 securities since 1999, for the first time defining our enemy at its actual scale + +[https://preview.redd.it/6oydghxerza71.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a95ea83a119b8ca9c4d01bfe6f4f9fa1559a64b0](https://preview.redd.it/6oydghxerza71.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a95ea83a119b8ca9c4d01bfe6f4f9fa1559a64b0) + +A huge thanks to all the investigators and DD authors that have helped me make and confirm the connections I've found. There are too many to call out, and I'll link to the work of as many as I can find in these Ultimate Wargame posts. Everything we do here is built off our collective effort to uncover and understand information in a system that makes it very hard to do so. Much love to you all. + + +💎🙌💎💓🦍🚀🚀🌜 + +HomeDepotHank69 (RIP) and others suggested that Total Return Swaps might have something to do with the cycles we are seeing. I decided if it was important enough for Hank to mention it, it was important enough for me to look into. + +Being smoothbrained, I had to go learn what a Total Return Swap was (TRS). I learned everything I know about TRS from Investopedia, so I’ll drop links when I reference something. Otherwise, I’m going to try to ELIA as I go. I’m sure people will correct me if I’m wrong. + +I think u/Criand and u/broccaaa will be interested in what I’ve found as well, since it provides additional context for understanding the scope and possibilities available to the shorts. + +**What is a Total Return Swap?** + +Since it’s fucking up the market and could devastate the global economy, you’ve probably already guessed that it’s a financial derivative. First the definition, then a picture. + +[From Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/totalreturnswap.asp): + +>A total return swap is a swap agreement in which one party makes payments based on a set rate, either fixed or variable, while the other party makes payments based on the return of an underlying asset. The underlying asset is usually an equity index, a basket of loans, or bonds. The asset is owned by the party receiving the set rate payment. + +* In a total return swap, one party makes payments according to a set rate, while another party makes payments based on the rate of an underlying or reference asset. +* Total return swaps permit the party receiving the total return to benefit from the reference asset without owning it. +* The receiving party also collects any income generated by the asset but, in exchange, must pay a set rate over the life of the swap. +* The receiver assumes systematic and credit risks, whereas the payer assumes no performance risk but takes on the credit exposure the receiver may be subject to." + +Here's my smoothbrain translation of that into an image. + +[https://preview.redd.it/6nnvzlhgrza71.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7de759b71a8013ad6e67a9102c3d1064914011d](https://preview.redd.it/6nnvzlhgrza71.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e7de759b71a8013ad6e67a9102c3d1064914011d) + +Just a couple of things to know before we get to the meat of things. + +1. The **Asset** “is usually an equity index, a basket of loans, or bonds.” +2. The **Set Rate** is typically a combination of a fixed rate and a variable rate. It’s a bet, after all. The example on Investopedia uses LIBOR, which is very convenient for this theory. + +**How Does This Relate to GME? (My Theory)** + +I think at some point Kenny hatched a plan to double short his entire portfolio without reporting it *and get paid to do so*. + +The basic plan is this: Kenny bundles a bunch of stocks, including one or more that he believes will go bankrupt, and offers them to banks in a TRS agreement. Kenny gets paid if the Asset remains neutral (perfectly hedged), he gets paid *more* if the Asset depreciates, and he only loses money if the Asset increases more than the set rate. Kenny chooses stocks he can easily manipulate and sets up an algo to keep them balanced against the set rate. + +Let’s say the set rate is 2%, like in the Investopedia example. Kenny has basically bought himself a 2% cushion on his hedging, and he knows that he can drop the prices of many of these securities in order to stay net positive on the trade. PFOF helps him immensely with this, in addition to its many other nefarious uses. + +Ok, so why would the banks take him up on this? Well, for one, the set rate is often based on LIBOR, which had steadily been declining throughout 2019, and then crashed due to COVID-19 economic policies. LIBOR, again from Investopedia is "a benchmark interest rate at which major global banks lend to one another in the international interbank market for short-term loans." + +[https://preview.redd.it/9jlugywhrza71.jpg?width=1378&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73fd24ee33c3a57c9f5c0ea2053bd53ce84dbf7d](https://preview.redd.it/9jlugywhrza71.jpg?width=1378&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73fd24ee33c3a57c9f5c0ea2053bd53ce84dbf7d) + +Kenny doesn’t care that LIBOR is low, in fact that’s his lure to the banks. They get a cheap set rate against a low-risk Asset, who could refuse? + +Also, LIBOR is notorious for being used in [financial derivatives crimes in the U.S. since at least 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal). Kenny does like to collect and combine scams, doesn't he? + +Let’s take a closer look at it from both sides. (EDIT: Before we do, I want to link to [this series of comments that takes issue with my breakdown of TRS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojh2eh/ultimate_wargame_theory_the_beginning_total/h51wl41?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). I'm too smooth and tired to figure it out, so for now I'm linking to the comment. If some wrinkles come in and clarify, I'll edit the post to reflect it.) + +[https://preview.redd.it/y8shajglrza71.jpg?width=1232&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29ed6398d3ffcf5fe8863a604c2a68ea9ab6ac27](https://preview.redd.it/y8shajglrza71.jpg?width=1232&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=29ed6398d3ffcf5fe8863a604c2a68ea9ab6ac27) + +# Citadel (Payer) + +* **Owns the Asset (ETF)** + +Of course, we know it’s really “owns” the asset, but not very many other people know that, maybe nobody. Certainly not when this scheme was hatched. + +&#x200B; + +* **Collects income if the Asset depreciates** + +Who makes Assets depreciate faster and more reliably than Kenny? Not many people, that’s for sure! + +&#x200B; + +* **Takes on the receiver’s credit exposure** + +Now, normally banks are the ones with the credit exposure. They loan you money, and if you default on that loan the bank is out of luck. However in a TRS, the hedge fund takes on all the Asset’s risk. In this case, banks can bet on the long-term growth of the market against an already-hedged instrument from one of the most “solid” hedge funds around. + +&#x200B; + +* **Forfeits the risk associated with the performance of the Asset** + +This is an understatement here, because we know Kenny’s plan is to short some of these companies into oblivion. Remember the chart above, if the Asset depreciates, the banks have to pay Citadel. + +&#x200B; + +# Bank (Receiver) + +* **Collects income if the Asset appreciates** + +I don’t know if you know this, but stonks only go up. At least, that’s been the trend in the DJI and NDX for the past few years. Betting that a random bundle of, say, 50 stocks is going to appreciate over time is a good bet. + +[Dow Jones Industrial Average](https://preview.redd.it/gl6alynmrza71.jpg?width=702&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23dcb87651a3ba7da97c0074f2b5826b31da094e) + +&#x200B; + +[NDX Nasdaq 100 Index](https://preview.redd.it/1182gv6rrza71.jpg?width=1177&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21b611a1c27891af45d02b9d6f76386af7f1bbc3) + +* **Assumes systematic/market risk** + +This just means that if the market takes a shit, the banks are going to be on the hook for a ton of money because the underlying Asset is going to dump as well. Remember, the bank pays the SHF when the Asset depreciates. + +Also remember that in this way, the SHF has pawned off all the risk of the Asset depreciating. This is great if you’re planning to short companies out of existence. + +&#x200B; + +* **Takes on the payer’s risk of default** + +This just means that for the Asset in question, the owner (SHF) has no risk of default because the bank pays them proportionally when the Asset reduces in value. This is how the scheme becomes an off-book double shorting opportunity for Kenny. The banks are literally paying him to short his own holdings, and the more he shorts the more they pay. + +That was a lot, so let’s bring back the financial relationship chart and you can put it all together yourself. + +[https://preview.redd.it/mxffaaftrza71.jpg?width=1232&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=38b16156efbeadb8647530fdc67db486be12761b](https://preview.redd.it/mxffaaftrza71.jpg?width=1232&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=38b16156efbeadb8647530fdc67db486be12761b) + +**tl;dr:** In early 2020, Kenny thought he’d trapped the banks and planned to make a ton of money off them, no one being the wiser because it was hidden in ETFs with dozens of other stocks. + +It’s just like the Big Short, except with overvalued securities instead of overvalued mortgages. Kenny knew he had some “BBB tranches” hidden in with the A tranches, and sold them to banks in what seemed like a good situation for them but was in reality a double good situation for Kenny. + +I don’t think he was trying to blow up the banks, just executing some psycho plan he’d cobbled together from all the greatest investment scams of the past two decades. He wins big, the banks might win a bit or lose a bit, and all it takes is putting a few measly companies and their thousands of employees out of work. But neither side cares about that anyway, so they don’t look too closely. Of course, it's possible they're all in on it together. + +&#x200B; + +**So What Happened Next and How Could It Be So Big?** + +(Link Safety Notice: All of the links in the following section go to Superstonk or directly to filings on sec.gov) + +In [June](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326380/000092189520001762/sc13da512166002_06122020.htm) and [August](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000101359420000673/rc13da1-083120.htm) of 2020, Hestia Capital and RC Ventures buy large stakes in Gamestop (1.5% and 9.5% respectively) and the price stabilizes after a volatile period. + +On December 17th , RC Ventures [increases its stake to 12.9%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119380520001571/e620151_sc13da-gamestop.htm). Let’s look at Gamestop’s chart for the back half of the year. + +[https://preview.redd.it/qmm4rfjvrza71.jpg?width=1407&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b37cceffe6027c68bcbbd759ae7464a70cfc1fa5](https://preview.redd.it/qmm4rfjvrza71.jpg?width=1407&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b37cceffe6027c68bcbbd759ae7464a70cfc1fa5) + +The next 13D filed by Gamestop was on January 10th, [outlining the provisions of RC’s agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119380521000031/e620202_sc13da-gamestop.htm) with the current board. + +[https://preview.redd.it/clf49a6yrza71.jpg?width=1885&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=394cd26915458dd203097b0fe976d3eb137406fd](https://preview.redd.it/clf49a6yrza71.jpg?width=1885&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=394cd26915458dd203097b0fe976d3eb137406fd) + +I put the end date of RC's Standstill Restrictions at February 9th, which is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 meeting. Had we found this earlier, maybe we would have voted Sherman out last month after all. RC just couldn’t say otherwise. Anyway. + +Let’s look at the 13Ds and 13Gs since: + +💎 + +On **Jan 26**, [Blackrock files an Amended 13D](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000083423721001340/us36467w1099_012621.txt) showing that as of 12/31/20 it had: + +* 13.2% ownership (almost identical to RCV’s stake) +* \>5% “ownership on behalf of another person” + +That person? **iSHares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF**. + +Who names their kid that? + +💎 + +On **Jan 28**, Korean company Dooyong Kimeunmi Koo Must Holdings Inc files to let the SEC know they used to own more than 5% [but now own 0 shares of Gamestop](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119312521019848/d945183dsc13ga.htm). + +💎 + +On **Feb 8th**, Fidelity’s FRM, LLC [files ownership of 13.3%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315066/000031506621001050/0000315066-21-001050.txt), again very close to the percentages of RCV and Blackrock. + +On **Feb 10th**, FRM, LLC files to report [a reduction of its stake from 13.3% to 0%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315066/000031506621001389/0000315066-21-001389.txt) (they now own 87 tickets to the moon, down from 9 million). + +Huh. + +Also on **Feb 10th**, Vanguard Group [reports ownership of 7.4%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/102909/000110465921018148/tv0931-gamestopcorpclassa.htm). + +But all of this is just background information, here is where things get interesting. + +💎 + +On **Feb 12th**, State Street Corp files that on 12/31/20 it [distributed its 3.5% stake across four of its subsidiaries](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93751/000009375121000355/GameStopCorp.txt): SSGA Funds Management, State Street Global Advisors Ltd (UK), State Street Global Advisors Australia, State Street Global Advisors Trust Co. + +On **Feb 12th**, Senvest Management LLC files that [their 7.24% stake is now under joint control of their managing member, Richard Mashaal](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000090266421001289/p21-0581sc13ga.htm). + +On **February 12th**, Donald A Foss, billionaire founder of Credit Acceptance Corp, [files that he has reduced his stake to 0%](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/901185/000110465921022073/tm216322d2_sc13ga.htm). + +On **Feb 12th**, Dimensional Fund Advisors LP files that [as of 12/31/20 it has a 5.6% stake](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/354204/000035420421000127/SEC13G_Filing.htm). + +Then it reveals this (which may or may not be boilerplate language for proxy voting, but is convenient for explaining things): + +&#x200B; + +[It's managers all the way down](https://preview.redd.it/lbr1dqx2sza71.jpg?width=1878&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a9267e1131004a08162074e491a18fe323dfca32) + +There it is. Six weeks into this research, and I’ve found a succinct, legal description of what we’re up against. Once we’re done with the filings, I’ll blow the whole thing wide open. + +💎 + +On **Feb 16th**, Susquehanna files that [their 6.3% stake is spread across three subsidiaries](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000110465921023554/tm216465d8_sc13g.htm): Sus Fundamental Investments, Sus Securities LLC, and Sus Investment Group. Brian Sopinsky is the signatory for all three companies, as General Counsel, Secretary, and Assistant Secretary. + +On **Feb 16th**, Maverick Capital Management [filed that their 6.3% stake is spread across four entities](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/934639/000119312521044436/d120770dsc13g.htm): Maverick Capital Ltd, Maverick Capital Management, Lee S. Ainslie III, and Andrew H Warford. Mark Gurevich is the signatory for all four, by power of attorney. + +Same stake, same day, although the share count is slightly different for each. + +💎 + +There have been no 13D or 13G filings for Gamestop since Feb 16. + +Ok, but how does this link Gamestop to the entire global economy, much less RRPs? Well, because Citadel is a relatively new player in a much larger game. There may be hundreds of overleveraged funds all tied into the same network, each of which manages assets from billions to hundreds of billions. This is our real enemy. They are the Five Rings, and Citadel is just Ben Kingsley’s Mandarin. + +# Ultimate Wargame Theory: The Players + +In the [original Wargame Theory](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvov2f/the_gme_wargame_a_new_theory_of_everything_my/), I lumped together Citadel and all its affiliated media, hedge funds, banks, and other allies as “The Bads.” My research over the past two months has now identified them more clearly. + +**I have examined the SEC filings of more than forty financial institutions going back to 1999, covering thousands of securities, and identified clear patterns that link them together and link them to the Gamestop saga in 2021**. I have correlated the movement of thousands of securities, and researched the people and places behind these companies to come to this conclusion: + +**We are not just facing Citadel, but a global network of banks, hedge funds, family offices, and other financial institutions who have created a de facto private stock market** and hold the fate of thousands of companies, trillions of dollars, and perhaps entire countries in their hands. I call this the Voltron Fund, but it is *not* a cosmic defender. + +[https://preview.redd.it/jcskiqp6sza71.jpg?width=486&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=946e8cd8f39d5f30c39257fea63da175a17f3072](https://preview.redd.it/jcskiqp6sza71.jpg?width=486&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=946e8cd8f39d5f30c39257fea63da175a17f3072) + +This monster is completely divorced from normal market mechanics because of its interconnectedness. **I believe there is a universal algorithm, Voltron’s Sword, managing the assets not of one of these companies, but all of them.** If one institution needs net capital, they get it from another with room to spare. If they need a loophole, they transfer the problem to a type of institution that can bury it in different loopholes and regulations. Sometimes they just ship it offshore, to a regulatory black hole like Luxembourg, Bermuda, or the Cayman Islands. + +Maybe what we're seeing [around net capital days](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ny2ov4/a_revisit_to_net_capital_what_is_truly_driving/) isn't buy-sell pressure from Citadel, but the entire fund moving assets to balance one another's books. We aren't fighting humans, we're fighting the wealthiest, most powerful algorithm in the world. + +**We don’t need to bankrupt one of them, we need to bankrupt all of them.** + +With respect to OP, I also don't think Citadel is [absorbing the liabilities of smaller funds](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5z8vc/working_theory_the_shf_white_square_that_just/) that “go bust.” I think it is balancing the assets and liabilities of the entire network using HFT to put out fires wherever they arise. That’s why funds are reporting reducing positions and heavy losses rather than margin calls or liquidations. They share thousands of individual investments among themselves, as shown on the 13Fs, and can move them whenever and however often they want since they have an in-house market maker and banks with fully aligned portfolios all over the world. + +**This also gives them a functionally limitless common pool of stocks to manipulate for arbitrage profit.** + +I’ll be publishing more analysis as fast as I can write it, but for now I want to focus on the scope of what we are up against so that future analyses of things like Total Return Swaps and RRPs can take into account the scale of our enemy. + +# “For Now We See in a Filing, Fastly”: How I Identified the Voltron Fund + +Like many of you, I have been frustrated by Reddit’s constant connection problems over the past month, but it wasn’t until the weekend of June 26-27 that my DD-sense was triggered. Superstonk was barely working, or not at all, **yet between June 24-27 redditstatus on Twitter did not update once to make people aware of the problems.** On top of that, I couldn’t find any evidence that it was a widespread problem. + +Reddit’s servers are run by Fastly, which had suffered a meltdown around June 8th that had some Apes wondering if Citadel was behind it. redditstatus was all over it, as they were for problems on the 21st, the 24th, and the 29th. Yet, between the 24th and 29th they said nothing about the CDN problems that Superstonk users were experiencing. Obviously the problems have continued unabated, but only for Superstonk as far as I can tell. + +I remembered that someone had commented about [Citadel recently taking a stake in Fastly](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nv1cbp/citadel_almost_quadrupled_their_amount_of_shares/), so I wondered whether the stake was large enough to gain precise control over Fastly’s servers. And if it was, how and why? + +**First Discoveries** + +My first stop was Nasdaq.com, which is a great resource for tracking institutional ownership between the quarterly 13F and 13G filings. I looked up Fastly, clicked institutional holdings, and sorted by “% Increased.” + +I spent many sleepless nights looking at every SEC filing for everyone listed on the first two pages of results going back as far as they go back, and I found so much crazy shit. I encourage you to go look around, and have advice for doing so at the end of this post. + +The first thing I found was an amazing correlation between the portfolios of all of the following companies, who I have since come to understand as correlated to the Voltron Fund. + +&#x200B; + +[https://preview.redd.it/glwli0k9sza71.jpg?width=1542&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0bf1ff1a7b0864ed0c3a1410dc2f588f600157a9](https://preview.redd.it/glwli0k9sza71.jpg?width=1542&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0bf1ff1a7b0864ed0c3a1410dc2f588f600157a9) + +This doesn’t even include the Abdiel Global Management fund, which [took a 29% stake in Fastly in 2019](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1508239/000119312519227993/d791811dsc13da.htm) and continues to move Voltron-affiliated stocks around between its various funds as recently as June. Abdiel is registered in the Cayman Islands, but run out of New York by a former Goldman Sachs employee, and is correlated in many other ways. + +Let’s just say that at this point Citadel is Fastly and Fastly is Citadel. + +&#x200B; + +>**Build Your Own DD #1:** I’ll get into how one of Fastly’s new board members is connected in a later Ultimate Wargame story, or you can try to beat me to it by figuring it out first! + +&#x200B; + +I thought I had found a good portion of the network in this filing, and that the network had come together sometime between 2015 and 2017. I was wrong on both counts. I have traced the beginnings of the Voltron fund back to a specific filing in 1999, although I don’t think Citadel becomes involved until around 2015. + +For now I’m going to focus on the timeframe of 2015 to the present, because I think that’s where our part of the story starts to take shape. I am leaving out a few pieces of information and connections, because they belong in other wargame stories, but this should be enough to establish the interconnectedness of the Voltron Fund. + +**Second Discoveries** + +While following the [trails uncovered by the Wargame Theory II](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ng4ja0/wargame_theory_ii_the_mother_of_all_fud_moafud/), I came across two hedge funds started in 2018 by Citadel employees who quit to start them: Candlestick and Cinctive. (One of them is Steve Cohen's brother-in-law.) It was here I first noticed the connections that would lead me to Voltron, but it wasn’t until the Fastly connection that I understood how to dig in to find it. + +The method is simple, and I encourage you all to dive in and find more connections as well as verify mine. I know there are more, but I had to stop at some point to tell you all what I had found. + +A 13F-HR is where a fund discloses all of its holdings, so a typical section will look like this. + +&#x200B; + +[Who are all those flowers for, Kenny?](https://preview.redd.it/71wfj7qbsza71.jpg?width=1538&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=020299b5a8b9f88daf7da8b28ffce8ebe81725a0) + +And for a while that’s where I was looking, because I couldn’t believe how well these portfolios were coordinating (I’ll have a separate post detailing some of my findings). But then I started looking at the Cover Pages for the filings, and that’s where things got REALLY interesting. Remember Dimensional Fund’s explanation above? + +&#x200B; + +>“Dimensional furnishes investment advice to four investment companies, serves as investment manager or sub-advisor to certain other commingled funds, group trusts and separate accounts (such investment companies, trusts, and accounts collectively referred to as the “Funds.” + +Now, they’re talking about voting rights and beneficial ownership, but what I want to focus on is the fact that they “furnish advice” and manage investments for other companies as well. You can find such relationships (when they’re properly marked) on the Cover Page of a 13F filing under two categories, which are on two separate parts of the page: Included Managers (IM), and Other Managers Reporting (OMR). + +In fact, here are all the interesting things you can find out from the cover page of a 13F: + +* The address of the company +* The address of the Compliance Officer signing off on the form (often different) +* Other Managers Reporting (OMR): +* Other Included Managers (IM): +* The number of different investments +* The total value of those investments + +For example, here’s the Q1 2021 cover page for Advisors Asset Management, an absolute lynchpin: + +&#x200B; + +[Sorry for the whitespace, I didn't feel like fixing it](https://preview.redd.it/3x78qciesza71.jpg?width=920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54b3c89ea01ade234303433468773fdd8c830ff5) + +Managing $6.5 billion right outside Austin, TX, [location of so many data centers affiliated to the Voltron Fund](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mhyv94/connecting_the_puzzle_pieces_the_failed_bet/)? Wut doin'? + +I’m going to end this section with a list of funds that my research has turned up. I make no claim to know their affiliation, only that they show up on one another's public 13F filings as managers and/or share a common pool of thousands of investments. A few things to keep in mind: + +* I have investigated only about half of this list, so there may be some unaffiliated names included. However, no name is included here if it did not have some connection back to the master portfolio. +* Remember, too, that this is by no means the entire list, and most of these companies have multiple affiliates just like Susquehanna, Dimensional, State Street, and Maverick showed us above. +* This doesn't include Bads that show up in these filings such as Apollo Global Management, Virtu, L Brands, and Axa. +* This doesn't include affiliated banks, which will be covered in a future post. A few of them rhyme with Coldman Snacks, Cheddar Swiss, Sploitch. I guess you can see that and more on the Fastly filing. +* Also, who knows how many of the [$10 trillion in non-reporting family funds like Archegos](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/archegos-and-the-10trn-world-of-family-offices-20210406-p57gtp) there are in the mix? (Link goes to an article on the Financial Review website) + +Want to know who's going to pay for the MOASS? + +# The Voltron Fund + +Abdiel Global Fund + +Advent Capital Management + +Advisors Asset Management + +Affinity Investment Advisors, LLC + +AH Lisanti Capital Growth LLC + +Apex Capital Management (Dayton, OH) + +~~Archegos~~ + +Ativo Capital Management, LLC + +Bahl & Gaynor + +Blueshift Asset Management + +Brown Advisory LLC + +Brown Capital Management, Inc. + +Campbell Newman Asset Management, Inc. + +Candlestick Capital Management + +Channing Capital Management, LLC + +Chicago Equity Partners, LLC + +Cinctive Capital Management + +Citadel + +City National Rochdale + +Cooke & Bieler, LP + +Decatur Capital Management, Inc. + +EAM Investors, LLC + +Edgar Lomax CO/VA + +Exchange Traded Concepts + +ExodusPoint Capital Management + +Fiera Capital Inc. + +Fortaleza Asset Management + +Fourpoints Investment Managers SAS + +Glacier Capital + +GlobeFlex Capital, LP + +Glovista Investments, LLC + +Greenoaks Capital Partners + +Group One Trading + +Hanseatic Management Services, Inc. + +Hartford Investment Management + +Herndon Capital Management + +Hightower Advisors, LLC + +Holland Capital Management LLC + +IFP Advisors, Inc + +KG&L Capital Management LLC + +Lombardia Capital Partners, LLC + +Managed Asset Portfolios, LLC + +Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC + +Matarin Capital Management, LLC + +Melvin Capital + +National Asset Management, Inc + +Nicholas Investment Partners, LP + +NorthPointe Capital LLC + +Oakbrook Investments LLC + +Opus Capital Group, LLC + +Paradigm Asset Management Co LLC + +Phocas Financial Corporation + +Piedmont Investment Advisors LLC + +PNC Capital Advisors LLC + +Point Break Capital Management + +Point72 + +Redwood Investments, LLC + +Reinhart Mahoney Capital Management Inc + +Seizert Capital Partners LLC + +Simplex Trading LLC + +Stackline Partners LP + +Steward Partners Investment Advisory, LLC + +StoneRidge Investment Partners, LLC + +Strategic Global Advisors, LLC + +Susquehanna + +The Edgar Lomax Company + +Thomas White International, Ltd. + +Twin Tree Management, LP + +Two Sigma Investments, LP + +Vision Capital Management, Inc + +White Square Capital + +Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC + +&#x200B; + +**Primary Industries Represented by Holdings** + +* Biotech/Biotherpeutics (had to misspell for automod) +* Cloud Computing and Servers +* AI +* Semiconductors +* Business Data +* Transportation, Shipping, and Logistics +* Pharmaceuticals +* Healthcare Data +* Energy Production +* Food Production +* Communications Media +* Commercial Real Estate +* Residential Real Estate +* Chinese ADR/ADS in all of the above + +It's much, but it ain't honest. + +**Total Assets Under Management?** My guess, in the tens of trillions. Some of the funds manage $30-50 billion themselves, and there's at least $10 trillion completely off the books in family funds according to the Financial Review article I linked earlier. + +[https://preview.redd.it/evwbhsrhsza71.jpg?width=455&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b3ea9d2f6b4263aaa739b76fdb44cf1d5374236](https://preview.redd.it/evwbhsrhsza71.jpg?width=455&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b3ea9d2f6b4263aaa739b76fdb44cf1d5374236) + +# Conclusions + +I think this research gives us a clearer picture of how certain things are possible, like hiding 2,000% short interest. + +I think it gives us a clearer picture on how the whole thing is funded, building on the work of [Where are the Shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nt8ot8/rip_uleavemeanon_where_are_the_shares_part_1/) and others. Citadel makes profits *in several ways* every time a stock is traded, so I think they can basically print money by moving stocks around between funds to take advantage of arbitrage. Depending on the particular need, they can move it between hedge funds, market makers, banks, and family offices at will. There is always a buyer and always a seller, and the terms are what benefits the whole. Two companies might do a trade where both lose if it means strengthening Voltron itself. This is not a rational system, it is a shadow economy sucking the real economy into itself through bankruptcy jackpots, hostile mergers, busting out, PFOF shenanigans, and outright fraud. + +**Speculation:** I think they do the same thing with options, which is why buying them for any stock in the shared pool is a sucker's game. They are in control of thousands of stocks, and manipulate them all for maximum options advantage. + +It isn't just about whether or not GME will hit its options prices in a given week or on a given security. The Voltron's Sword algo looks at options across their entire portfolio and maneuvers the stocks for maximum profit and minimum damage. The more you buy, the more information they have, and the more they can use options to manipulate the game. We know options expiries for one stock that we own, they know them for thousands of stocks that they own. + +If you want to see how connected this is with media, see the Widespread Manipulation teaser below. + +It's possible that we live in a completely fraudulent system. + +&#x200B; + +**Bringing It Back to RRPs and Total Return Swaps** + +These companies can just make shit up and call it an investment. **What would happen if I owned, say, four million GME and spread it out between four different companies?** + +Four times as many derivatives contracts! Four times as much leverage! + +And **what happens to banks on the other end of these swaps when the Asset (GME bundle)** ***appreciates*** **instead of depreciating like everyone assumed they would?** + +Every single exposed fund has to start pumping cash into the counterparty banks. + +This may explain why we didn’t see an end of quarter spike last month, because RRPs have already been increasing steadily basically since the March runup. Is there a connection? Here’s a totally speculative theory: + +&#x200B; + +* The shorts got hidden in January by the Married Puts and other mechanisms we have identified, but that’s the last time that was going to happen on that scale +* The Voltron’s Sword algorithm determines that someone needs to go, and so Archegos gets the call (remember, [Archegos is a biblical term meaning “a sacrifice, one who goes first,”](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ng4ja0/wargame_theory_ii_the_mother_of_all_fud_moafud/)) and that causes the March runup +* While they’re waiting for the Archegos fallout to appear, the Voltron Fund fragments its holdings and prepares to use a series of Total Return Swaps to keep the price under control when it shoots up as a result (similar to how they shut down January, but through a different mechanism) +* Right after that, in mid-March, is when RRPs start to rumble and they’ve been basically growing ever since, as the TRS’s leak more and more cash into their counterparty banks. By sacrificing Archegos and keeping the price steady, they have been able to draw out the charade much longer +* They keep the price flat and money flowing through HFT shenanigans between members, and they keep the shorts hidden using TRS swaps and non-reporting family funds + +This would explain the low borrow rate and reports that they are low because there is no interest in borrowing GME. They have been borrowing and shorting as part of the strategy, but the main thing keeping them alive is spreading massive leverage over trillions of dollars AUM and dozens of companies so that every company in the fund is at least $0.01 in the black. They're mostly using their own shares to manipulate the price, it's just that before we didn't know all the places we had to look. + +**I'd wager a guess, based on this research and how they seem to do things, that every single institutional share not accounted for actually belongs to Citadel through the Voltron Fund.** + +They will take pieces off the board here and there (Archegos, Citadel Luxembourg, White Square Capital) just to maintain equilibrium across the entire fund. I believe the May runup *might* have been a result of Citadel Luxembourg closing and Glacier Capital absorbing some of its positions, I have a post on that incoming as well. + +**Whew.** + +I hope this will give some of you a lot to dig into while I finish up different pieces of this project. I also hope I’ve inspired you to look into some of this yourself, if only to verify what I’m saying. I started this entire project by triangulating the Q4 2020 assets under management of three of the companies on the Fastly list. Take your pick and report your findings so we can put more pieces together. + +I know this been a lot to take in. It took me six weeks, tendonitis in my mouse-clicking hand, and several nervous breakdowns to put it together (mostly joking). I will spin out some of the implications of the Voltron Fund in future posts, including how I accurately identified two stocks that would begin correlating with GME last week by re-opening the investigation into Glacier Capital. + +Another post will show that our investment media environment is as completely fabricated as the stock market itself. + +I hope this first Ultimate Wargame story has convinced you that we are up against far more than Citadel, but the fundamentals haven't changed: + +**Buy and Hold, and love one another and the world around you. We are going to be alright, we are going to win, and we are going to have a chance to forge a better future for ourselves and the world.** + +I look forward to continuing this conversation with you in the comments. + +💎🙌💎💓🦍🚀🚀🌜 + +Blanderson +I'm sick and tired of the constant crime and manipulation in the market so the billionaire boys club can keep their money printer going. I'm sick and tired of the elite using and abusing people that work hard everyday. I'm sick and tired of being treated like a piece of shit that only exists to serve them. We have the right to be hyped and the right to be frustrated. We need to allow people to vent frustration and joy equally or this sub will become an echo chamber and run people out. + +First, the normal disclaimer, I'm not a shill, I'm 100% in GME and liquidated everything I have to go all in and have been for well over a year now. I believe in the squeeze and the numbers are there. I'm incredibly frustrated with the silence and lack of action from gme to protect their investors. Don't get me wrong, I believe they will and I believe this post will not age well but it's off the backs of apes gme made this incredible resurgence and able to move forward in the capacity they have been. They have raised over a billion dollars from apes around the world at a $225 cost basis, that's from teachers, nurses, police, fireman, businessman, drivers (most importantly Only Fans actresses)...all of us, mothers, fathers, brothers, and sisters the normal everyday hard working individuals of the world. GME "changing the game and making a marketplace" is old news now, every company is doing this and they have already announced it. GME's lack of transparency in this regard has screwed investors over, thus far. This company is ours and owes us the protection and development we deserve. + +As a community we have upvoted and encouraged horrible personal financial decisions. We upvote living out of cars and tents in order to continue holding gme. We upvote taking out loans and selling homes. But then when people want action and the company to take responsibility for the exact people providing the money for their transformation, we call them shills and berate them saying this is a long term investment for the companies turnaround. How long should these people be homeless or accumulate debt they can't get out of? We are here for MOASS, let's call it how it is. Long term, I will always hold gme, however, today I'm here for MOASS. + +RC and Co clearly visit these forums and see what we apes are doing. If they believe that their shareholders living out of a tent or car to continue funding their company but do nothing is ethical, what makes them different than any other billionaire using us for their own gains? When do we say enough is enough and need to see action? I can be as patient as anyone, many years teaching in special education, but at some point patience only goes on for so long before you get tired, frustrated, and worn down. You start to lose faith in all humanity and any hope for good in this world. + +Maybe it's the dip, maybe it's the constant hype dates and getting let down, maybe it's the hints from gamestop themselves but never actually announcing anything with substance but I'm just ready for something from them. Anything, just something at this point, I'm starting to feel used like a piece of popcorn. I will hold gme forever if I have to but our company needs to do something for us and the average person, not all of us have all the time in the world with billions of dollars to fall back on. + +End rant + +Oh and side note I already know what will be coming from some.... + +He is a shill-don't even bother not going to acknowledge it + +Early weekend FUD - insert stock response here + +Then sell - if you really feel this way, buy my shares at my cost basis or leave me alone + +Matt Furlong is just as upset and one of us- he is not, unless you are making 2.5 million a year, he is not. His sign on bonus over 2 years is 4.7 million, this misinformation needs to stop in my opinion + +Edit: a question regarding a solution, since some want it from me: Issue an nft dividend to all shareholders to give a thank you to apes pre market place. They get first "dibs" on the new gme marketplace. + +I already know the counter to this. They don't want to get into a legal battle with SHF's. This exact sentiment, they don't want to get into a legal battle, is why I'm frustrated. You wouldn't fight for your investors? That's what it is, if you make this move, fighting for retail and your company + +Edit: thanks to everyone for the support. It appears I am not alone with this sentiment. I will apologize for not communicating clearly and want to clear something up, when I say I liquidated everything, I meant all positions I have and all retirement accounts are in gme. I made one stupid move with a loan, outside of that I didn't touch my home or money for food. I am a father and husband first, nothing will ever get in the way of that. I was poor all of my life, I will not allow my kids to see that type of poverty, ever. No one ever should. + +If you came here to spew hate or call me a shill....I actually appreciat the posts, if it added value and an opposing opinion. As this post stated, I do not appreciate echo chambers or everyone thinking a like. I enjoyed reading the counter opinions and can appreciate that. The reason I lurked every hour in this sub way before I joined reddit was for the OG DD writers, people questioning them without being run out, and making sure it was right. + +Also, thanks for all the upvotes, comments, and awards from everyone. Tried responding throughout the day as I could but work just kept getting in my way!! + +Edit: After all these insider buys, I ate my words and hard. Won't lie, I love every second of being wrong here and what the insiders are doing and buying up this dip! +Update part 1.2: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o28xhx/whats\_the\_deal\_with\_reverse\_repos\_anyway\_dd\_part/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=ios\_app&utm\_name=iossmf](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o28xhx/whats_the_deal_with_reverse_repos_anyway_dd_part/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) —————————- + +# Let’s talk about the Fed + +The Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) responsibilities as the nation’s central bank fall into four main categories: **monetary policy, provision of emergency liquidity through the lender of last resort function, supervision of certain types of banks and other financial firms for safety and soundness, and provision of payment system services to financial firms and the government**. + +Congress has delegated responsibility for **monetary policy** to the Fed. Monetary policy can be used to stabilize business cycle fluctuations (alternating periods of economic expansions and recessions) in the short run, while it mainly affects inflation in the long run. **Monetary policy** refers to the actions the Fed undertakes to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to promote the goals mandated by Congress, a stable price level and maximum sustainable employment\*\*.\*\* The Fed targets the **federal funds rate** to carry out monetary policy. The **federal funds rate** is determined in the private market for overnight reserves of depository institutions (called the federal funds market). At the end of a given period, usually a day, depository institutions must calculate how many dollars of reserves they want or need to hold against their reservable liabilities (deposits). + +The Fed’s conventional tool for monetary policy is to target the federal funds rate—the overnight, interbank lending rate. Some institutions may discover a reserve shortage (too few reservable assets relative to those they want to hold), whereas others may have reservable assets in excess of their wants. These reserves can be borrowed and lent on an overnight basis in a private market called the **federal funds market**. The interest rate in this market is called the **federal funds rate**. + +* If it wishes to expand money and credit, the Fed will lower the target, which encourages more lending activity and, thus, greater demand in the economy. +* If it wishes to tighten money and credit, the Fed will raise the target. The federal funds rate is linked to the interest rates that banks and other financial institutions charge for loans. Thus, whereas the Fed may directly influence only a very short-term interest rate, this rate influences other longer-term rates. However, this relationship is far from being on a one-to-one basis because longer-term market rates are influenced not only by what the Fed is doing today, but also by what it is expected to do in the future and by what inflation is expected to be in the future. + +The Federal Reserve uses two methods to maintain its target for the federal funds rate: + +* The Fed can also change the two interest rates it administers directly by fiat, the rate it charges to borrowers and the rate it pays to depositors. +* Traditionally, the Fed primarily relied on open market operations, which involves the Fed buying existing U.S. Treasury securities in the secondary market (i.e., those that have already been issued and sold to private investors). Outright purchases of securities were used from 2009 to 2014. Because of the large increase in bank reserves caused by, open market operations alone can no longer effectively maintain the federal funds target. Normal open market operations are typically conducted through **repos** instead. + +# When the Fed wishes to add liquidity to the banking system, it enters into repos. When it wishes to remove liquidity, the Fed enters into reverse repos. + +In a **repo operation**, the Fed lends overnight by providing cash against the collateral of securities. A **reverse repo** goes the other way: the Fed borrows overnight by receiving cash from its lenders while providing them securities as collateral. + +# Finally, we can talk about Reverse Repos and its significance to the current state of the markets, but first we must address the Debt Ceiling issue. + +The **debt ceiling** is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow, as directed by Congress, to meet its financial obligations. When the ceiling is reached, the Treasury cannot issue any more bills, bonds, or notes. It can only pay bills through tax revenues. + +Congress previously agreed to suspend the limit through July 31, at which point the Treasury has only a few months of “extraordinary measures” before lawmakers must either raise the amount, or face consequences of **technical default**. + +It has a target cash balance of $450 billion at the so-called Treasury General Account (TGA) on July 31. As of June 9, the Treasury’s cash balance was $674 billion, down from $1.8 trillion last October. It is not allowed to run up its cash balances ahead of the debt ceiling, because doing so is viewed as circumventing the borrowing limit. It has more than a month to pare back its cash, unless Congress raises or suspends the U.S. debt limit. + +As the Treasury spends money from its general account, the cash ends up on bank balance sheets, often in the form of **money market funds**. With front money market yields so low – in some cases on the cusp of falling below zero — investors have opted to place cash with the Fed’s reverse repurchase facility, which pays zero interest rates. + +There is so much cash at the front of the curve and low T-Bill supply from the TGA pay down that money market funds have no where else to go but the Fed **reverse repos**. It is less painful than potentially have to earn negative rates on your cash. + +Imagine you are a money market fund manager and you have $500 million cash. This cash came from a bank like Goldman who is looking to reduce its balance sheet constraint from a recent large deposit from a client and is charging deposit fees (negative rates). Ok so now what? I have all this cash and will have to pay this fee to Goldman unless I do something with it. Since there are no interest options given the abundance of cash across the market, you go to the reverse repo at 0% Better than earning nothing and having to pay fees right? Why not just buy t-bills if you are a MMF? Well, because of the TGA pay down due to the **debt ceiling**, there is just not enough bill supply out there. + +On top of that you add the money that people have been injecting into the banks, due to the fed printing money in the form of **stimulus**, and the American people have more money parked in the big banks than ever before. The big banks are currently losing money on interest payments because of all this money. The banks don't want all this money, so they perform repo contracts with the FED. The banks and the fed are using the repo market as a way to keep interest rates within their targets and control the amount of liquidity they both have. The FED wants to keep printing money to keep the economy running and the banks want to get rid of the printed money to keep the lights on. + +# All of the above has led to this: + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/h29sjv3hqx571.png?width=1278&format=png&auto=webp&s=74efb03d8265a77b7ca42c35246b9b05b13b5deb + +# Fucking TNT right? Well here comes the Nuke… + +Traditionally this has been the flow of money in the reverse repo operations: + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/scmne5qhqx571.png?width=545&format=png&auto=webp&s=156810a0b19fd689a26323e4772ebe53f11baeb7 + +This loop is about to be broken due to Citadel and friends. Citadel owns a company called **Palafox Trading** (market maker for repo agreements, yup) and uses them to EXCLUSIVELY **short & trade treasury securities**. Purchasing the US Treasury bond, in conjunction with mortgage backed securities, allowed the fed to keep pumping unlimited liquid cash into the repo market. Things are not as easy when Citadel comes along and borrows the bonds from Blackrock, they throw it into Palafox Trading and collect their cash. According to this case study: [https://www.localsuccess.org/shorting-the-us-treasury-bond-2021/](https://www.localsuccess.org/shorting-the-us-treasury-bond-2021/) + +“**Citadel has shorted more treasury bonds than are available**… With the federal reserve purchasing them monthly from the open market, it leaves room for a shortage when the repo call hits. If an entity like BlackRock hasn’t purchased more treasuries since lending them out, hedge funds like Citadel simply cannot cover unless they go into the market and PAY the bond holder for their bond. It’s literally the same story as all of the heavily shorted stocks… There is TOO much evidence, from TOO many separate events, pointing to the imminent default of something big. That’s all this is going to take. When Ted can’t repay Steve, it means the panic has already started. Just look at how easy it was for the repo rate to spike overnight in 2019. We are already starting to see the consequences of the SLR update with Archegos, Nomura, and Credit Suisse. This is just a taste of what’s to come… and now we know the bond market represents an even BIGGER catalyst in triggering this event… and it’s happening already…With that being said, things finally started to make sense… Citadel doesn’t NEED shares if their investment strategy to go short on EVERYTHING instead of going long. Why bother owning shares? BlackRock and other asset managers simply lend them to you when you need to pony up a margin call for stocks and bonds…Their HFT systems allow them to manipulate the market in their favor so there’s NO way they could fail… **unless… a bunch of retail investors all decided to ignore taking profits.** But that would NEVER happen, right?” + +# LET’S WRAP THINGS UP + +The feedback loop will eventually be broken due to the increasing interest payments of losing short positions. When this happens, the banks won't be able to keep performing these repos, the FED won't be able to perform reverse repos, interest rates will either sky rocket or go negative-hyperinflation or depression. + +What is the FED doing about all this? \*puts on tinfoil hat\* Most likely **colluding**: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tpzgwj2jqx571.png?width=1117&format=png&auto=webp&s=79e1f6653e662a97bc37b4b21a64c7578bb0ec1d + +[If I had went into this in detail would need a part 2, it's 2:30AM right now so you'll just have to take u/Criand word for it](https://preview.redd.it/apgzo9kavd571.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=46624db19f3752d401ef9b0e26c09daa102f8077) + +# So we have TNT on top of a Nuclear Bomb in the Reverse Repo Market, on top of that you have everyone borrowing money like crazy: + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5grzev1kqx571.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=4268c20be2871300888871ba6d4d2bc6e3f61b63 + +# Which makes me think what will happen in the event of monster margin calls that lead to the liquidation of blue chip stocks? Who is safe here really? + +Lastly, in this DD: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxxwqt/tldr\_i\_believe\_inflation\_is\_the\_match\_that\_has/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nxxwqt/tldr_i_believe_inflation_is_the_match_that_has/) + +# u/Dismal-Jellyfish Brilliantly pointed out another ticking bomb to this entire equiation, inflation. + +He says that “Inflation is going to make it impossible to earn positive rates on assets after being adjusted for inflation on anything but “extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery” risks… Because of inflation, the shorts are going to drown in their cash. **There is no place for it to go** to earn a positive yield greater than what inflation will eat, or should be acceptable for the level of risk of default…With nowhere to park this cash to generate positive yields and while having to contend with balance sheets that are having assets eaten away, participants will continue to use the Reverse Repo to buy time **until**: + +* Being down in real terms because of inflation is something that cannot be made back up to service the debt and will weigh on balance sheets as they try to protect from margin calls. +* ·Their existing collateral on the balance sheet can get re-rated lower, re-appraised lower, or just eaten by inflation to the point even what they are borrowing in treasuries can’t meet the requirements to hold off a margin call. +* They hit the 80 billion Reverse Repo limit because of nowhere else to place cash, are tapped out on treasuries, and no longer able to post acceptable collateral to meet their margin requirements.” + +\------end of quote + +# That was a lot to recap, sadly I have no TLDR. I do however have my own conclusion from digesting this information. + +It seems like their only way out is bankrupting GME. Which only then they can begin to clean up their mess, as hard as it sounds I believe they can get out of it if they straight up bankrupt a thriving growth company. The fallout from this though… + +I do not believe that will happen. They can however try to get us all to sell so they can cover at a much lower price in a controlled demolition style. I believe they have taken too long and our diamond hands prevailed, giving GME enough time to make the necessary changes they needed to make. + +I made a chart earlier regarding their most recent breakout: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/go9ovndlqx571.png?width=1621&format=png&auto=webp&s=315557c1caf7800a4e98ac585022e68a9abca0a6 + +[trading sideways guy, exponential floor guy, and t21 guy get all the love. But what about dorito triangle guy?](https://preview.redd.it/0yra8u9kvd571.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=5301fa30def4c424e447e9b2e3f41566c2a9eca2) + +I believe the fundamentals are too strong at this point and the earnings are looking better each time. It’s too late for them now. I have always believed in the company and I’m going to keep holding. They put themselves in this situation, their greed. If the entire financial system comes crashing down because I believe in a company then maybe the system was broken to begin with. I look forward to the opportunity to rebuild a more transparent free market that works for the people when this is all over though. That is just my personal opinion, it doesn’t really matter. I just really like the stock. + +EDIT: I’m currently working on part II which will connect the dots with GME. I know i threw it without much context,but there is a lot of data that needs thorough explanation. As well as a new finding, that the fed is pinned in this and is working their way out. Possibly by margin calling the margin callers, due to them taking advantage of SLR benefits. There is so much to this. The purpose of this post was meant to be educational but evolved into a deep web that I’m currently investigating. There are just so many angles to this. Will post part II as soon as I have a strong enough thesis to connect GME with supporting evidence. +I am looking for purchasing my first home, a duplex for house hacking. I have only heard success stories in this sub and podcasts I listen to. I would like to hear contrary experiences people have had. My dad keeps reminding me that this is a high risk business and a single issue (roof, AC, driveway) could unexpectedly cost me $10k, vacancies, tenant damages. He owns 6 rentals himself. He has personal friends that were forced for foreclose on many rental properties due to similar issues, especially the ones that leveraged debt across many properties. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. +- **For more focused and orderly discussion, please go to the [Serious] Daily Markets Discussion thread. You can find it by [clicking here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=%5BSerious%5D+Daily+Markets+Discussion+thread&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choosing the top thread on the search page.** + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +It's been about two months since I created [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/6f33f3/what_are_the_top_10_cryptocurrencies_to_invest_in/) in which I asked all of you for advice choosing which 10 cryptocurrencies to invest my $10k of extra cash in. I was a complete noob at that time and have learned much since then, though still consider myself a noob. Here's a quick summary of what's happened in the last two months concerning my portfolio. + +So I had been ready to buy the same day I made that thread, on June 4th, 2017. If I had been able to, I would have bought in when BTC was $2552 and ETH was $224. However, I could not buy in at that time because as a European I found it impossible to get set up on any exchange and get my identification validated. The wait time would be weeks. It was frustrating to not have my skin in the game, but I decided to use the time to research and develop an investment strategy. + +I quickly realized that between job and family, I was not going to have enough time to properly research all these different coins. All I could do was keep tabs on the bigger picture of crypto, particularly Bitcoin, and do my best to form a legitimate, if not superficial, impression of various alts. The following became my investment motto: + +"Seek out coins that have strong development teams with business-minded leaders, have working use cases with wide future potential, and that haven't mooned yet." + +Finally on June 14th, thanks to an American friend, I had an account that I could use to begin buying in. I decided to buy in at increments of $500 up until and then through August 1st ($5k before Aug 1 and $5k after). + +I bought in at various spots when BTC was valued between $1,900 and $2,750. + +I bought in at various spots when ETH was valued between $328 and $362. + +My initial plan was to buy something like 40% ETH, 30% BTC, and 30% alts. This quickly changed, however, after purchasing all my ETH and heavily researching the coin I became largely turned off of the project. I now own much less of ETH. + +In total, so far I've invested $6300 of my money into various coins. + +**Coin Name/Amount of coin I own/Approximate value of my holding in that coin** + +Bitcoin/1.25 BTC/$4033 + +NEO/150 ANS/$2318 + +Ethereum/1.79 ETH/$466 + +Waves/102.61 WAVES/$459 + +Monero/8 XMR/$378 + +Factom/20 FCT/$406 + +Golem/1,000 GNT/$325 + +Stratis/50 STRAT/$360 + +Ripple/1525 XRP/$282 + +Siacoin/10,000 SC/$95 + +**Total Portfolio Value: ~$9130 (+ ~$2830)** +*This does not include the BCC I theoretically own on Gemini. + +---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +I suffered my biggest losses investing in Ethereum and Numeraire. The former was a mistake of jumping on a bandwagon, and the latter was a mistake of making an impulse purchase after getting hyped reading a single reddit post. + +I experienced my biggest gains from Antshares (my favorite alt), which I bought into at various spots between $5 and $7 per coin, and BCC, which I exchanged for BTC when BCC was valued at $700 per coin (yay free money!). Unfortunately, I was only able to exchange half of my (theoretical) BCC as I had half my BTC on Bittrex (where it was possible to exchange) and the other half on Gemini (where it is not possible to exchange). + +I still have $3700 left to invest. I'll probably be looking to put more into BTC as well as pick up some Monero. I'll check in again with another update in October. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hello, + +I was genuinely curious how economically viable an independent Quebec would be. + +There are some who say that independence would be an economic disaster (naturally those who are against it) and those that say it would be business as usual (those are who for it). + +Has the evidence shown anything for either side? +Announcement: [https://twitter.com/0xferg/status/1588548804726255617](https://twitter.com/0xferg/status/1588548804726255617) + +**TL;DR:** The entire business model of Web3 gaming is under threat thanks to smart contracts avoiding royalties (basically how games are going to monetize). GameStop now has a **live, in-production solution for games to guarantee royalties.** + +Hi everyone, really excited to share a critical piece of infrastructure for GameStop and Immutable winning the gaming race. We spend enormous periods of time thinking about how to design the best protocol and marketplace for games - and I want to keep you all in the loop with the product decisions we are making. + +**The context:** + +In case you've missed, over the last month some serious changes have occurred to royalties. + +* Many marketplaces (X2Y2, SudoSwap) have gained market share by routing around royalties. This means creators and games don't receive the royalties they initially established their business models on. +* Major marketplaces like MagicEden have been forced to take their royalties to 0, because of this competitive pressure. + +This is awful for gaming, and mainstream adoption of Web3. Creators and games should be able to monetize via royalties, and it's fundamentally more player aligned: make money when players trade, rather than selling things up-front. + +Immutable is the only protocol live today where you can have enforceable protocol royalties. We're extending this to *anyone* on Ethereum with our latest announcement. + +**What does this mean / why does this matter?** + +* **Immutable Royalties** means mainstream games who want can build on GameStop NFT can do so with the guarantees that they will receive guaranteed royalties - [live today](https://twitter.com/0xferg/status/1581868883673198592) +* Marketplaces like GameStop can guarantee better monetization in the long-run by receiving permanent creator-royalties on created assets. This also opens up brand new forms of monetization for marketplaces with strong distribution like GME, which can be taken *anywhere*. +EDIT: It's been 6 months and nothing has changed. + +I am successfully mining ETH for GME. Everything that was said in regards to me wasting my time was FUD. My miner is accepting GME's NFT program's wallet address and mining Ether into it with zero reversions! + +I noticed the disgraced Superstonk ex-mod "Madie" has tweeted in response to my Ethereum mining post, attempting to debunk it. The contract address Madie uses in this post is not a wallet address, and thereby will obviously not work. + +&#x200B; + +[Madie falsely debunks my ETH mining post intentionally using the wrong code](https://preview.redd.it/fxmzs4kmzvb71.png?width=611&format=png&auto=webp&s=5441c5389852837a9a3daf3e61280101dbf57dfc) + +The address she uses is not a wallet address. It is a contract address. Anyone who mines would know that. I doubt Madie mines at all. GameStop's wallet address is: [0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad](https://etherscan.io/address/0x10b16eede03cf73cbf44e4bfffa3e6bff36f1fad) + +You can see that this address is the same one used in my post explaining what I am doing: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojeygl/im\_relatively\_sure\_ive\_been\_gpu\_mining\_ethereum/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojeygl/im_relatively_sure_ive_been_gpu_mining_ethereum/) + +I am now entirely sure that I am successfully mining ETH for GME. I challenge anyone to plug this address into their miner and tell me it is not working. I wasn't suggesting anyone follow me down this rabbit hole before, but I am now. This is 100% working. + +\*\*Keep in mind that you will not be able to claim anything you mine to this address. Consider any Ethereum mined to this address to be a donation.\*\* + +Love all Apes. We're not fucking leaving! +It's well known that it takes intense pressure and heat to create 💎diamonds, and from what it can be observed , this project and its team have done everything to ensure that this effort is well added in order to create a long-term opportunity + +&#x200B; + +I had good feelings about other BNB reward coins and they did great, but the feeling I get about Stellar Diamond is far beyond any of those other ones, because: + +Stellar diamond \[XLD\] is a community driven project with daily BNB rewarding process with the following features: + +&#x200B; + +Stellar Diamond's main focus is to keep our rewards pool filled not just by tax but by several avenues such as shops and more to keep everyone claiming high rewards forever even if transactions are low. + +With an experienced team is behind the development of XLD that wrote the contract from scratch. Unique plans in the roadmap ensure that XLD keeps on rewarding investors for years to come. + +&#x200B; + +⭐️Higher sales tax (More BNB rewards!) + +⭐️Custom dApps from experienced developers + +⭐️External BNB reward pool income sources + +⭐️Claim Both BNB and XLD! (Can Set your % claim of both tokens so 100% BNB, 100% XLD and Any combination in-between) + +⭐️Gradual buy-backs & burns + +⭐️Multiple pools to ensure steady rewards + +⭐️Auto-claim rewards + +⭐️Anti-Dump + +&#x200B; + +💠 Anti-whale (0.1% transaction limit - unlike others who just charge whales a price so they can still do massive sells and thus manipulate the market (press 'f' for paperhands), here those transactions will be rejected!) + +💠 KYC registered successfully! (zero chance of rugpull - we do, you can come to my house) + +💠 Upcoming merch where profits will be fed directly into the reward pool + +💠 Intensive marketing plans after presale (YouTube promotions, merch, TikTok and of course...memes!) + +💠 Professional experienced developers (who wrote the contract from scratch! Not some copy & paste coin like the others, which means we will avoid their pitfalls - like the sell bot going haywire and selling off much more than it should have and creating pure red candles) + +💠 LP tokens will be locked for 12 months! + +💠 Developers are incorporating community suggestions into the contract! (the devs love some community ideas so much they are changing some tokenomics that made other coins fail - for instance the auto-claim feature and lowering charity % and doing something to support the community itself) + +💠 Contract audit passed successfully! (that's right! The contract is already audited! Where most coins only audit after launch, Stellar Diamond team went above and beyond to get it done before even presale!) + +💠 Unique development plans to ensure that the reward pool keeps on increasing from outside XLD + +💠 Live AMA right before presale! All questions are welcome 🙂 oh and for those who want to - bring all your fud and we will show you how strong and bright diamonds truly are! 😃 + +Presale will start on Friday 25th June 18:59 UTC + +The sky is not the limit, the moon is not the limit, we're aiming for far beyond the stars! Join the presale now to receive your stellar diamond hand! + +🌐 Website: [https://stellardiamond.net/](https://stellardiamond.net/) + +📝 Whitepaper: [https://docs.stellardiamond.net/](https://docs.stellardiamond.net/) + +📳 Telegram: [https://t.me/StellarXLD](https://t.me/StellarXLD) + +📱 Twitter: [https://twitter.com/XLDStellar](https://twitter.com/XLDStellar) + +🖥 Discord: [https://discord.gg/2VFc6EKrt2](https://discord.gg/2VFc6EKrt2) + +KYC: [https://twitter.com/SolidProof\_io/status/1403707952779907077](https://twitter.com/SolidProof_io/status/1403707952779907077) + +Audit: [https://github.com/solidproof/smart-contract-audits/blob/main/SmartContract\_Audit\_Solidproof\_StellarFinance.pdf](https://github.com/solidproof/smart-contract-audits/blob/main/SmartContract_Audit_Solidproof_StellarFinance.pdf) +You have 51M followers on Twitter and you are seen as one of the most inspiring heroes of this century. People trust you and see you as a leader. But with the FOMO you are generating on Doge (and the related pump) you are gonna hurt A LOT of people and this is no good for the crypto world. This is no good for the people who are creating the future of the FinTech. This is no good for our visibility. + +Let’s be honest here, “dumb money” and new retail investors are approaching the crypto world with doge right now, putting there their money and I’m afraid also their life savings. New joiners have no clue of how mean can be volatility, especially on a coin like this. They don’t know what to do, they don’t have an exit strategy. They just see green, +200% and your tweets. They are gonna lose money, blame crypto and flag it as a scam. Once again. Please, know what you are doing. + +Doge army is gonna downvote like crazy, but I’m pretty sure I’m not the only one being worried about this. + +Update: small edits, typos +In what way would GM spinning off its EV unit into a separate company be advantageous for both companies? Wouldn't "legacy" GM do better with the EV unit there to prop up lagging gas-powered sales? And wouldn't the EV unit do better with access to GM's automotive design, engineering, marketing, and sales expertise? +Question : I overheard the following statement in the lunchroom of the state legislature: “We should really consider adopting an inheritance tax. It is perfectly efficient (creating no deadweight loss) because it’s not like the tax is going to cause individuals to make different choices about when to die.” Evaluate this claim. + +My answer: It is true that there is no deadweight loss because the inheritors do not have an already established revenue stream and do nothing to earn that extra revenue it would be impossible to have deadweight loss on something you have no willingness to pay. Beneficiaries are going to take what they get regardless of the rate the tax is placed. Death as of right now is a certainty in life, so if the tax was at a range from 0 – 100% has no bearing on people’s behavior of dying. Finally, people will still accept this extra income regardless of the rate it is taxed. + +However, my teacher told me think of it from the perspective of the person who is dying. Is there deadweight loss I think it will cuase them to make descsions that are different but I am unsure regardless of loss. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks + + +1. Index trading is tough, Whether you are trading the FTSE ( UK's Main Index) or the Dow Jones (Americas biggest index) they each come with challenges. +2. Most global indexes are highly correlated, The FTSE and the Dax (Germanys Main Index) are extremely correlated with most moves being identical even down to a 10min candle. This could be beneficial or a hindrance. Say for example the FTSE is pushing higher but the Dax is lagging, You may think twice before going short the Dax because of how strong the FTSE is. +3. Trading in my opinion is 80% mental and 20% technical. This could sound stupid to someone who is currently learning technical analysis but once you are sat behind the screen having lost a sizeable amount of money having the discipline to keep the correct trading size and having the patients to wait for the signal is a huge part of trading that many underestimate +4. Discipline, Can you sit in front of a screen for 10Hrs+ waiting for that one signal that allows you to enter the trade, or will you let your emotions get the better of you so that you jump into trades without the correct technical analysis? + +If you agree with my points above and it helped at all I would love a follow on my Telegram where I post live trades and educate people about trading [**https://t.me/AvixTrader**](https://t.me/AvixTrader) +Adjusted for inflation houses costed nearly 3 times less in 1960 than they do now. Seeing as all these suburban homes were mainly built in the postwar boom why did they increase in price so much. Was it an increasing population? If that was the case why didn't the government help in increasing supply so prices stayed low and people could spend more on consumption which would further boost the economy? +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +They gave me 3 point values from my hard credit check. The highest to lowest difference was 69 points (nice), the middle one being 10 points above the lowest. + +Credit karma shows that my equifax and tranunion are MUCH higher (55 points) than the hard check pulled. The only scores that match are my fico scores, each being the highest number. Credit karma shows a difference of about 13 points from my highest to lowest score. + +Are there other credit reporting companies out there that have different calculations? Any idea why I may have such differences? Should I ask the mortgage lender to check elsewhere? Any advice is welcome. This put my interest rate 2 brackets lower than I thought it was.. +Just hit 1$ a day - $378/year on dividends. +Truth be told I wasn't aiming for dividend income. +They just fit what I call my "grampa" portfolio. +Super excited. +asking for a fiend + +https://preview.redd.it/4hlw5wcc7sn71.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cda17f49d25dbc7e3d108f798e7adb92ab3ab4c2 + +https://preview.redd.it/fby542nrisn71.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=5bc963ded4c6b8e16bf6424ababdb2d10bf99718 +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Like the title says a property nearby is clearly vacant and the listed owner on the county auditor died in 2018. How do you figure out what is going on with this property? If it were in foreclosure it's been a long time...the grass is occasionally being mowed, but it's starting to be an eyesore. I'd love to buy it and fix it up but can't figure out who to even contact. Any tips? +PLEASE REFER TO UPDATES. UPDATED SITUATION TITLE IS NO LONGER ACCURATE. + + +IT TURNS OUT I AM AN AUTHORIZED USER IN REGARDS TO HER BAD CREDIT. I OWE A LOT LESS THAN 30K NOW IF I AM REMOVED. + +I'm sorry if this is a bit long or unclear, this is my first time posting here and I'm not sure where else to go or what to do. + +I am a 22 year old national guard soldier trying to get back into the local university. I just got back from years of training and am trying to I'm to readjust to being a civilian again. I am working part time in addition to regular monthly drills and don't make a lot. I also don't spend a lot and have been putting most of what I make into savings. Filing taxes was fairly easy and turbotax allowed me to check my credit score as I had filed with them. + +I haven't really tackled credit whatsoever before this as I had been an incredibly impulsive person before the military and worried that I'd go out of control with credit. So I didn't touch it and instead developed a healthy habit of saving and budgeting before even considering getting a credit card. I know I was stupid to not regularly check it earlier, but I thought the second best time was to do it now. + +Turns out my credit score is dismally low as there is more than 30,000 dollars of debt in my name which is more than triple of what I have saved up over years. My mother has opened three accounts in my name and while she has been making the minimal payments on time, she's racked up a tremendous amount of debt. Some of the cards were opened as early as when as I was 2 years old. + +I have documentation of everything that has happened, with each page of account information saved as PDFs. + +I have spent the past couple of days trying to not panic, I've confronted my parents and am currently looking for cheap apartments so I don't have to live with them anymore. However, I don't know what to do beyond that, really. 30K of debt is enormous and I don't even make that in a year. I don't even know how to BEGIN tackling this. I just know that I'm heartbroken and I feel absolutely betrayed. I never thought my own mother would steal my identity. + +Should I put off college and try to pay it off by working more jobs? Should I stay living with my parents to save on rent? What should I do to tackle this debt and fix up my financial situation so I can move on with my life? I don't want to be my parent's piggy bank anymore. + +UPDATE: Equifax has me quoted at 481. When I opened CreditKarma it asked about a possible home mortgage made in January 2016 that I do not see in my report. I do not have a mortgage. I hope this is a mistake and that there was no mortgage made in my name. The cards that are there have me as an authorized user, thank god. There are still 5.5k in loans, however, and the fact that my mother wants me to pay the student loan that is in her name. Her listing me as an authorized user, however, may still lose me my clearance and thus my job in the military. I will be speaking to NCOs tomorrow regarding what to do next and the status of my clearance. In regards to the years of training (i lost track of your comment I am sorry), I had to learn a new language in addition to AIT. This took two years. + +UPDATE 2: The mortgage thing has been explained. Thank you. I am an authorized user on the two accounts but have never been given a card nor been informed of the existence of these accounts. I have simply been associated with her rotten credit it would seem. I do not know why I am listed as an authorized user as I have signed nothing and have never touched credit in my life until checking my credit a few days ago. I doubt this is reportable to the police, and will be talking to the financial and legal support provided by the military tomorrow. Thank you all for your advice! + +UPDATE 3: A lot of people questioning my military service. Understandable as my situation is strange. I am an E4 35P who has recently got out of TRADOC. AIT for 35P is one of the longest in the army, as it is language dependent and I was required to become fluent in a foreign language. My language course at DLI took a year and a half, and due to financial and familial issues stemming from what I'm detailing right now, I was recycled a few months in and had to start over. It ended up lasting 2 years for me. I have been with my guard unit for two monthly drills now and am still relearning how to be a civilian again. Trying to figure out my credit and how to become independent is also a part of that, and why I made this post. Thank you all again for your replies and advice. I will do my best to read all of your comments and give updates as I deal with this issue. +# 0. Preface + +We got a spicy new post today of a few more rules being passed (SR-ICC-2021-008 + SR-ICC-2021-014 + SR-OCC-2021-006) and put into effect: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfhswb/3\_new\_filings\_sricc2021008\_sricc2021014/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfhswb/3_new_filings_sricc2021008_sricc2021014/) + +Along with ICC-007, the haircut rule for ICC, being put into effect: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfjivc/icc2021007\_passed\_approved\_today/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfjivc/icc2021007_passed_approved_today/) + +And this is some **good** 👌👌 **shit** 👌👌 **right here**. 👌👌👌👌 + +**Tl;dr: ICC might have just pulled the plug on its members (banks) via ICC-005, ICC-007, and ICC-008, or is about to.** + + +Edit: GameStop must have acquired the infinity stones... +https://www.instagram.com/p/CPBzJMHtUms/?utm_medium=share_sheet + +# 1. Rule "Prefixes" and ICC + +For any apes confused on the prefixes, DTC, ICC, and OCC are all different clearing entities and they all submit their own rules. They all operate different parts of the market. + +In a more general sense, DTC = stocks, ICC = default swaps, OCC = options. + +Since we're talking ICC, you probably want to know who's a member of them. Well, it's banks. Lots of banks. Lots of big banks for that matter: + +>ICE apparently operates the NYSE group. +> +>ICC is composed of all of these banks: Bank of America, N.A., Barclays Bank PLC, Barclays Capital Inc., BNP Paribas, BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Citibank N.A., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Credit Suisse International, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Goldman Sachs International, HSBC Bank USA, N.A., HSBC Bank plc, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Merrill Lynch International, Morgan Stanley Capital Services LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Nomura International PLC, Nomura Securities International, Inc., Société Générale, SG Americas Securities, LLC, The Bank of Nova Scotia, UBS AG, London Branch, UBS Securities LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC + +Quote from [this comment by Ridn2Lo](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncq8jt/sricc2021005_filed_today_with_the_sec_basically/gy6loes?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +# 2. New Rule Summaries + +**SR-ICC-2021-008 -** [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91918.pdf) + +* Approved and I believe in effect. +* Updates to their "model" on determining margin requirements / risk management. +* Makes a note that the model will take into account scenarios of **extreme price decreases and extreme price increases**. + * The model will take into account **hypothetical extreme movements**. So it is forward-looking. If they determine a security **will have** an extreme movement, they'll take that into account in their model. AKA, "X is going to go up next week. We are going to calculate your risk is based on IF it actually goes up". **That's nuts!!** +* Pair this with SR-ICC-2021-007, the haircut rule, which eliminates some collateral, and you've got an easy way to just rip the plug from these guys and margin call them (have a defaulting member). SR-ICC-2021-007 will be in effect TOMORROW. + +&#x200B; + +**SR-ICC-2021-007 -** [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91894.pdf) + +* Updates to haircut rule and collateral that can be used for your capital. +* Haircuts are additional subtractions to your total capital. You want to maintain enough capital to not default. + * They are allowed to introduce higher haircuts depending on volatility of securities and the general market. Easier to margin call. +* Badly-backed collateral cannot be used any more, which eats away more at your net capital. + * E.g. Think of Citadel's BBB- bonds. Those are poorly backed, literally the worst kind of bonds. If you had $600 million in these bonds as collateral, then the ICC could say, "Nope. Can't use that". **It's possible that the $10-15 Billion bonds the big banks got in April are going to be rejected for collateral.** + + + +**SR-ICC-2021-014 -** [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91922.pdf) + +* Immediately effective, but starting **June 1, 2021** +* They're giving discounts on credit default swaps to make them more enticing for the 2nd half of 2021. + * This implies that nobody is going to want to do default swaps with ICC while in a suffering market. So they're introducing incentives to hopefully bring in more customers. + * They are giving out \~25% discounts, which seems pretty damn big. + + + +**SR-OCC-2021-006 -** [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ/2021/34-91920.pdf) + +* Reducing fees of option contracts for clearing because they believe it can be reduced while still maintaining enough revenue for the OCC. +* Just them wanting to reduce fees to the OCC members because they have enough money sloshing around already. +* They propose it will come into effect **June 1, 2021**, "because OCC believes that this date is the first date that the industry could be prepared to process the new fee without disruption based on consultations with market participants." + * Does this mean they expect some disruption between now and June 1? Maybe. + +&#x200B; + +**SR-ICC-2021-005 -** [Link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/icc/2021/34-91806.pdf) + +* Already in effect as of Friday, May 14, 11:59PM EST. Literally last minute filing. +* This is basically the DTC-004 equivalent for ICC. This is their unwinding plan in the event of extreme market stress in order to remain afloat by wiping out members with high risk positions. +* Something really cool is they'll not only wipe out members who default on a certain security, they'll wipe out similar positions in that same security of all their other members IF it's high risk/stress to the market. E.g. if a member defaults due to their position in X, then they'll cascade that to all other members who hold a position on X and tell them to get rid of it. This could inevitably lead to more defaulting members. +* This means ICC is getting ready for member defaults + +&#x200B; + + +# 3. Other TL;DR + + 1. SR-ICC-008 will perform a **HYPOTHETICAL** situation of extreme price movements when determining margin requirements. + + 2. SR-ICC-007 will rip their collateral from them and introduce higher haircuts, making the model from 008 easier to hit their risk threshold and be margin called. + + 3. SR-ICC-005 will cause all other members to eliminate their risky position if it causes any member to default from that same position. Cascade/snowball effect. + + +And with lots of things pointing to this week or next being the bang... well, this just adds to that pile. +I understand basic crypto investing but not the stock market. I understand some crazy event could make the gme 185 dollar stock sky rocket as much as 100,000 % or more? What are the chances of that happening and when? Like for instance, with crypto I can say with the 4th quarter of the year it is likely that x will happen, is it like that for gme? + +Edit: I pulled out my crypto investments and put it all in GME, am I dumb? Probably most certainly yes right + +(Why are you people awarding me) + +(( seriously, if you guys are spending money on Awards to award meet please do not. If you would like to award me something please instead take that money and use it on yourself or a loved one.)) + +((I am overwhelmed by your awards, and thank you for those of you who are being honest about GME stuff))) +Long time lurker, first time poster. I just saw a promo on Bloomberg for an interview with Ken Griffin today at 1 pm EST. It mentioned that there would be a wide range of topics, but I'm guessing he will spend most of the time talking about "conspiracy theories" and trying to make himself look like a good boy. Either way it should be entertaining and I can't wait to watch him read from the teleprompters again. + +Edit: +For anyone asking about how to watch online, live stream link is below courtesy of u/wingzttv + +https://www.bloomberg.com/live + + +Edit 2: +Looks like it got pushed back to 1:30. Kenny probably needed a bit more time to rehearse. + + +Edit 3: +Some people were having issues with the bloomberg link and apparently there's a 30 minute limit. Alternate link is below courtesy of u/gordiart + + +https://oneotv.com/bloomberg-live-tv/1/ +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp8PhLsUcFE +Another Update--I have been paying $2,400 on the loan every month. Things have been going great so far. At this rate, it will take a little under 3 years. + +UPDATE- I was able to secure a loan for the total amount owed at 3%. Will have it paid off in about 3-4 years. I appreciate all the help, it has pushed me to figure this out and I learned my lesson with credit cards. + +Well, the title says it all, due to me being young and stupid, I have about 77k in credit card debt. I am a truck driver and I gross about 3-4,500$ a week. After fuel and expenses with my truck,, I probably take home between 1500-2000k a week depending on the workload. I have just been stupid with money and some very big repairs that I ended up putting on my credit cards because they had 0% interest for awhile. Work was very busy until some plants got shutdown so I went from making steady 5,500k a week to more like 3,500. And I kept spending money as if i was making the big amount. Anyways, my debt is + +Chase freedom buisness---45k$ min1,200$ int 20% +Chase freedom personal---13k$ min 450$ int 25% +Bank of America----------------11,500$ min 430$ +Discover-----------------------------3,500$ +Amazon------------------------------4,200$ +Amex----------------------------------2,700$ + +My bills +Car. 330$ +Semi truck loan 1,000$ +John deere zero turn and trailer 300$ +Insurance for personal- 200$ +Insurance for semi truck-500$ +Rent--free for now +Electricity,Water--‐-‐---------240$ +Misc------‐-------------------------200$ +Food---? + + +I use to spend about 25-30$ a day in food while I work but I have cut out all my road food and now pack a lunch. +We also use to eat out about once a day for one of the meals. We have cut that out as well. + +I sold my new pickup I got before I accrued this debt so that saved about 1,500$ a month including insurance. +We also moved to a new place and since we put so much work into the place, the owner said we would get free rent for awhile since he lives across the country. So that saves us 500$ a month. + +Its my wife and I and our 2 year old and we also are the guardian of a 9 year old for the foreseeable future. + +I am only 23 and as you can see I am just plain stupid. Please don't be rude because I know I am the dumbest person alive. Thank you in advance for any help! + +EDIT>>> My wife doesn't work, she goes to a local college and was getting her basics but I told her to finish this semester and wait until our kid gets in pre-k before we decide what she can do. I mentioned in a reply that last year the business made 500k, that was with 2 trucks, I have a partner in the business. Out of 290k I grossed, I spent 90k in fuel. Then there was repairs and whatnot. This year is substantially less, I am making probably half that. I have canceled my subscription services which saved about 150$ a month. +I was hoping to start some discussion on the most effective ways someone with financial resources can live more sustainably (and comfortably). + +Some things I've been doing: + +* Cloth diapers for baby (more expensive, bit more work) -- mind boggling how much this reduced our trash going to landfill. Went from 2 full curbside garbage containers / week to 1. +* Reasonable electric car, bike to work 1x / wk for fitness too +* Solar on the home, thinking to upgrade HVAC +* Avoid flying for work -- at a point financially where I can say no to flying for some dumb training / meeting. Avoiding work travel in general since it leads to a huge carbon footprint. +* First class takes 3x space / emissions as economy -- Can easily pay, but since I'm young and limber I hang out with the cool kids in coach. Due to her age and infrequent trips, I do pay for my mom to fly business when she travels. +* Reduce significantly (but didn't eliminate) meat consumption -- also for health. + +At the end of the year, I use calculators ([EPA](https://www3.epa.gov/carbon-footprint-calculator/), [Flights](https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx)) to also estimate our family's footprint and then just buy carbon offsets. Usually it's like $300-$400. The company I work for is in the green industry and they already have an offset purchasing program that I just use. + +Obviously it's way better to reduce footprint than to buy offsets, but I figure we can pay too... + +Any other financial upgrades to help? I guess the other huge one is to shift career even more towards green technologies... +More details still to come as per CNBC, but this could be a big blow to Beyond Meat considering they had a lot of growth baked into their share price (which, presumably, included further expansion into fast food chains such as MCD). + +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/mcdonalds-to-test-mcplant-which-includes-its-own-meat-free-burger-next-year-beyond-meat-shares-fall.html +A couple of months ago I was looking at my bank statements and each month I was spending about $200 on eating out. The first piece of advice I see when someone wants to pay off their debt is to cut back on expenses. Eating out seems to be the main offender. + +I decided to take a different approach. Every time I wanted to order take out, I took the amount of what my order would be and placed it into my savings. In the past couple of months I've saved a little under $200. This included everything from fancy burger places to dollar pizza. Even little things like going to the store across the street to buy a can of soda. Watching my savings grow has been really motivating me to cook at home more and stay away from junk food. I used to eat takeout at least twice a week and now I'm down to once or twice a month because of it. + +--- + +Edit: So I'm getting a lot of mixed feedback here and some are very valid. Note that this is not something that works for everyone as everyone is under different circumstances but I do find that this works for a lot of people. This isn't a catch all by any means. For those of you calling it stupid, while thats your personal opinion, remember that different techniques work for different people. If eating takeout is more beneficial to you then that's great. This post is for those that want to save money but eat out regularly. Personally, I think its helpful to see things on paper. + +Additionally I never said to stop eating out entirely. I understand the necessities of enjoying one's self for their mental and emotional well being. I will eat out every now and then especially if it's a special occasion. I'm talking about those of us who eat out multiple times a week. + +There are benefits to each, its just a matter of picking what's most important and sensible for you. + +To those that are saying that they don't want to eat boring/bland food learn how to use spices and herbs properly. +I started investing only in 2018. Not too long ago. I opened up a Kuvera account - because it didn't have DEMAT crap and I was only interested in Mutual Funds. I only put money in 4-5 funds. + +It's been 4 years and 2 months since I started investing properly. In this time, my XIRR i.e Internal Return Rate is 17.4% and absolute Return is 40%. Proof (screenshots) - https://imgur.com/a/CGWgqts + +What were my funds? + +- UTI Nifty 50 Index Growth Direct Plan + +- Parag Parikh Flexi Cap Growth Direct Plan + +- UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Growth Direct Plan + +- Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Growth Direct Plan + +- Motilal Oswal midcap and small cap indexes (introduced later and added along the way) + +As you can see, none of these funds were anything extraordinary. Just plain old regular blue chip funds majorly. + +**Then what did I do correctly?** + +- Didn't lose my job. + +- Never stopped my SIP even for one month. + +That's it. That's literally it. I just invested straight through the long flat period of 2018-19 and through COVID. + +If I had waited for the dip, I would've never jumped in at the right time (In hindsight this was Apr 3 2020) and probably not made these returns. +**I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.** + +**Only edit:** some of you have been linking me to posts saying that my prediction was just a day early. At first, I didn't think it could be true but now I think there might be some credence because we closed at .01% today and that has only happened 2 other times (went up big the next day). Nevertheless, lets sit back and watch what happens tomorrow. Even if we bounce up tomorrow, as my DD has stated, THIS IS NOT GME MOON DAY, there will be more to cum. If nothing happens this week, I will be making a huge FTD DD in the coming days/weeks. If we pop up this week, I will be making a huge FTD DD in the coming days/weeks. Gonna stay quiet for a few days probably and will be back to you soon with more information. Stay strong, apes. + +# Sad Uncle Hank + +Apes, I come to as a humbled primate but not a dead gorilla. As many of you know, it seems that my prediction will not be panning out as I thought it would. Summary of my theory: + +https://preview.redd.it/ek4sqa1vyku61.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2254d18809c28330661578540b1924662c6d5a9 + +However, with this, I have learned a great deal of information about GME and its price history. I've had many chats with fellow apes about FTDs, past price data, volume, etc. and I think that we are all learning a great deal of information from each other. As many of you know, my theory was simply based on the price and volume of GME. After making that prediction, many people pointed out other patterns relating to FTDs and monthly option expiries (see the bottom of my most recent post for that). After looking into it, I think that there is really something there; however, it is going to take A LOT of digging. It will not just take one ape, it will take many apes. This will not be easy. Compared to everything else in finance and investing, FTD theory/explanations/data are sparse, so this will be a herculean endeavor. Also, I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has interacted with posts. Whether you gave me an award, gave me an upvote, commented something nice, or called me retarded, I absolutely love doing these DDs and your responses make it worth it! + +# Where are we going? + +Some of you have said that there are signs that tomorrow could actually be what I thought would happen today. Though I'd love this, don't get your hopes up. What I've learned from today is that price and volume alone cannot help predict the price of GME. Is this because GME is manipulated or stupid? Who knows. However, I think that if we do an asinine amount of digging and truly understand FTDs, we can get to the bottom of why GME spikes up and down so often on no news or fundamental changes to the company. First, I wanted to point something out. For those who don't think that trouble is afoot on GME (essentially those who think it was just a fad), no stock goes from 350 to 172 (march 10) in the matter of two hours on absolutely no news. I could give a billion other examples but that's the most glaring. Therefore, I think that we truly need to educate ourselves on FTDs and how they affect the price of GME. This will allow us to get to the bottom of what shorts are really up to and how they work. + +Everyone talks about FTDs and the FTD cycle but it also seems that no one fully understands it or how it affects us. It seems like people just say "oh look tons of FTDs = tendies." Because of this, I believe that we need to do some DEEP digging to understand this dark side of finance. + +https://preview.redd.it/69u5hgkw0lu61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=7213cf897d0fadcd0d80c4b68ff07c562ad10bf5 + +Why am I saying this? As I said above, the past few days have made me realize the important of FTDs because of comments/chats from other apes. I also just realized that on 2/24 when we came back from the dead (from 40ish to 90ish in an afternoon), the media said that was because of the announcement of the ousting of the CFO. Really???? A more than 100% jump in a few hours because of a CFO? What's more suspicious is that the relative calm period between that jump and the squeeze seems to like it could fit into one of the aforementioned FTD cycle periods (i.e. huge shorts during the January squeeze, cover on 2/24). To put more gas on the fire, when Cohen was announced as god of the board a few days ago, the stock went down!! What?! Tell me how that makes any sense whatsoever especially considering how much more hype and attention GME has gotten since then. I have been a huge proponent of saying that catalysts are the key to GME, and I still believe they are, but because the price of GME goes up and down massively at random times on no news, I think that there is more afoot and that FTDs are the key to understanding how the shorts are really operating. + +Therefore, I will be doing massive research on this topic (I will explain my methods below). HOWEVER, I urge all apes who are able to do this to do their own research on FTDs and shorts so that we can get a better idea of how they work and when shorts have to repay after these massive attacks. I'd urge you to start by reading this DD about FTD cycles, as it is gold: + +[https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/DD/GME/og/GMEv14.pdf](https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/DD/GME/og/GMEv14.pdf) + +Finally, though I love chatting with all of you, please only message me about FTD stuff if you have some serious, detailed research and don't think that your account is big enough for others to see it. If you have some DD and an account that can get some traction, I encourage you to post that DD so that others can see it more quickly because I will be inactive for a little (explained below). + +# So what about you, Hank? + +https://preview.redd.it/or4ov7qd1lu61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=483602e9d9032dbdb06dcc8615922a7ea4bbfd38 + +So, apes, to fully understand the breadth of FTDs and how they affect our baby, I will be taking a sabbatical for a few days or weeks. I will be hiding in the depths of my shed eating nothing but pringles, fig newtons, flaming hot Cheetos, and gushers. I will ONLY listen to Fifth Harmony, Megan Thee Stallion, and Linkin Park. I will only use the bathroom ONCE per day. I will only drink coconut water and WD-40. Most importantly, I will be decreasing the time I talk on the phone with my wife's boyfriend from 8 hours a day to JUST 45 FUCKING MINUTES. Now that's sacrifice. Apes, When I emerge from my shed, I hope to come to you as an enlightened primate. I hope to come to you as a primate who has earned the wrinkles on his brain. I hope to come to you as + +. + +. + +. + +. + +**AN ORANGUTAN** + +https://preview.redd.it/2pnrdfx4yku61.png?width=1023&format=png&auto=webp&s=71866c738c132e133bcc72f38b977fe1c9a61ac8 + +**Godspeed apes.** + +I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. Don't lock yourself in a shed and drink WD40 like me. +I'll start - + +**Background** + +After working at a FAANG company, I took the last few years off to travel and decompress. Last year when I wanted to buy a house, after initially getting pre-approved, the mortgage company wanted to see more income. After not working for a few years, that wasn't possible so I would have to turn to a higher interest rate, equity loan. I wasn't interested in the higher interest rate so that ended the house hunt (for now). + +**Why aren't assets enough?** + +Since 2008, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac look for income on the mortgages they buy. For the bank to resell the mortgage to Fannie & Freddie, they must play by their rules. + +**Lesson** + +Having a W2 income for 6 months+ makes it much easier to get a traditional mortgage. Otherwise you may have to get an equity loan that has a higher interest rate. + +What situations have you run into that you wish you knew prior to fatFIRE'ing? +Too many times on some silly rallies that happen for no known reason apes tend to slack off and start celebrating too early. + +I don't care what the charts look like, what the halts look like, what someone said on the news. + +I don't care if you bought through robingthehood or fudelity, if you routed it through the dark pools or IEX. + +Do you know why? Because they're all the same, and nothing makes a difference until you DRS. + +Your $10k purchase doesn't mean anything unless you're locking those shares away by DRS. + +Your wife's bf's money doesn't do anything if the shares are still being lent out. + +DRS your shares. That's all that matters until proven otherwise. + +I'd rather upvote DRS posts with 1 share than your 100 share purchase that is still being lent out. "Oh but I'll DRS later." Like I said: until you *actually do*, it does not matter. + +Show me your purple circles. + +DRS YOUR SHARES + + +*Edit 1: + +I'd like to clarify my opinion on buying and not DRSing: at the end of the day, you can do whatever you want with your money. Do I think you'll be holding a bag when CEX decided to say "fuck you" and sell ~~your~~ their shares (since you don't actually own them)? I absolutely think it's a possibility. Are your shares being lent out by your broker, essentially delaying MOASS? Most likely, and if you think they're not, you're too naive for your own good. + +Why would you want to risk that? Is it possible nothing happens with your shares in your brokerage accounts? Absolutely. In fact, I am HOPING that nothing happens. But I'm done/have been done waiting for catalysts. Instead, I've decided that *I* want to be the catalyst, so I'm DRSing everything I have. + +Hence why I bought 50 more and I'll be posting my updated purple circle as soon as I can. + +*Edit 2: + +If you have a purple ring that you want to show off but can't due to Karma, visit the GMEOrphans sub. No ape left behind! +That is not hyperbole. Money isn't just paper used to buy cocaine and hookers. It is a physical representation of a portion of a man's life. Make $50,000 a year in a soul sucking desk job? Taking a $50,000 position on $GME is risking a year off your life to fight this good fight. The amount of years so many of you are willing to put on the line is an amazing testament to how dedicated this sub is to fucking these bastards raw. The bastards who steal thousands of years off the regular man's lives every single day. You're fighting the good fight, and your sacrifices will not be forgotten. 💎🙌🏻🚀🌕 +I see people asking about this pretty often, so figured I would throw out some stocks that I personally like. The criteria I look for is high volatility, strong support on the low end price range, and a company that is a solid long over the next couple years even if I were just buying stocks + +$20-25, SOFI, CLF. Both are somewhat popular on WSB, but the companies themselves are pretty solid. SOFI has a lot of potential as a Fintech company, already profitable. CLF is a steel producer, predicted to have a huge windfall from high steel prices this year. + +$15-20, APPH. Indoor farming with robots, has a lot of cash and is in the process of building several farms, first farm has been very successful. Notable for being extremely environmentally friendly compared to traditional farming and also extremely efficient. I personally really like this company a lot, got a ton of press last year + +$5-10, AQB. Aquatic farming, recently got approval to sell the first GMO fish that they developed a few months ago, have been farming these fish and sold out very quickly. Tons of potential here as well, very early stages though + +Please add more companies in the comments, I feel like this kind of stuff really helps discovery for people getting into trading +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I just want to say a big thanks to all the people in this sub. Since joining here a couple of months ago I have finally started to get my financial house in order. I’ve cleared the credit card debt, stashed some emergency savings and today I managed to negotiate a discount on my home loan interest rate ( paying it off actually looks in reach within the decade now!!!) It’s the tips from this group that have really helped. I want to build up a healthy emergency fund buffer and then take the next step to investing. Thanks! +> China said Friday that it will impose new tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods and resume duties on American autos. + +> The State Council's Customs Tariff Commission said it decided to slap tariffs ranging from 5% to 10% on $75 billion U.S. goods, in two batches effective on Sep. 1 and Dec. 15. + +> It also said a 25% tariff will be imposed on U.S. cars and a 5% on auto parts, which will go into effect on Dec.15. + +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/china-to-retaliate-with-new-tariffs-on-another-75-billion-worth-of-us-goods.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard +A common argument against various tax laws/reforms/whatever is that if you increase the tax burden on the super rich, they'll leave the country and go somewhere that they won't be so infringed upon. Assuming that were true...so what? What would that really mean for the country? + +Let's say, for the sake of argument, tomorrow the United States passes an absurd wealth tax and the 1% (either richest or highest earners, or both, whatever you want) pack up their sacks of money and take off to Libertaria and/or Rapture. What sort of impact would that have on the economic state of the country? The government tax income? What sort of shortages could we expect to see? How many people would be out of work? How many bread lines would I have to stand in and how many pets would I have to eat to survive? + +--- + +Edit - I just want to clarify - this post is glib, yes, but I'm not trying to imply, well, anything, about taxes or the rich. I'm legitimately curious about the answer and was just trying to be entertaining, that's all. + +--- + +Edit the second: for a specific proposal, let's use Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax. + +> It’s a simple 2 percent tax on fortunes over $50 million, and a 3 percent tax on fortunes over $1 billion.