diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_5.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_5.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_5.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ +3. I will need to get tax audits and maintain a Leger books. !?!?. I want to get a CA. Does online platforms like clear tax provide these services? + +4. Is this money large enough to consider getting a portfolio management service? I have heard they give decent returns but require huge amount of commitment from the investors. (Typically 50L) + +5. My contract says that I get esops(~150k USD vested in 4 years) as well but how does that work when I am not an employee. + +What else should I be thinking of? + +Tl;Dr Suddenly landed a dream job with 1cr base salary and 1cr esops. Don't know what to do. + + +Edit1: For folks asking the company name - I understand that this is a nice opportunity and you like to give it a shot. There are many developers better than me and more suited for the role. But I think I am the only developer from this part of geography working for this small startup and it would look really bad on me and (India in general) if they see 100s of inbound emails looking for job opportunity. I would also end up disclosing my identity if I share the company name. But I do want to help and hence I suggest keep your github and linkedin polish and try finding a niche. Keeping an online presence is good and it increases surface area of getting lucky. I hope you understand my reservations on disclosing the company name/github ID. + + +Edit2: Guidance/Skillset - I received a number of messages regarding what skill set should people acquire and what courses they can do. I am not an expert and there is no special skill set I have which helped me land this thing. I can tell what language I work with: Go, Python, Javascript. Technologies: Docker, Kubernetes, Git. Area of interests: Trading, Compilers, Optimization. College: Tier-1. Reiterating that I landed this by luck and no specific preparation, knowledge etc. +Serious question. + + I study chemistry and I am also decent at physics. So there is this universal low, principle of conservation of energy where if for example i burn something, the energy is released but never lost. + +About my question now, if I burn that billion, that means I never actually got to spend it, so it didn't «transform» into ten houses or something. So is there a gap in global economy? +Where are all these „is [insert russian stock] a good buy posts comming from? +I mean seriously? Read the newspaper guys. +Imho nobody can seriously think about putting money in a stockmarekt that is likely gonna stay closed for non-russians and call it vAlUe InVeStInG +It’s a benign one and can be operated with high recovery rate. + +My spouse is down and so am I. We have a young son. We have been talking about FIRE for a while now and now, with my condition, more so. + +I still enjoy working but I always feel that my brain is very tired. It doesn’t surprise me that I have a tumor as i have been having headaches, blur vision, poor mental health etc. I know something is wrong with my brain. + +The math is not there for fatFIRE as we have high expense and live in VHCOL but we can do lean/chubbyFIRE. The only thing that is hard to let go is our dream to expand our house. We also worry about the healthcare cost. + +I am doing 3-6 month medical leave then I suppose I will asses how we go from there. More likely we will cut down and make our number work without moving to LCOL. +We've come a long way since this community was created 8 years ago. We have grown bigger than we could've imagined. + +At the beginning of 2020, our subreddit had ~30k subcribers. About a year later, we've almost 3x-ed. + +If you've joined recently, welcome to the community; we're elated to have you. If you've been around a while, welcome again. + +Growth on its own can be a double-edged sword. While it gives some validation (_we must be doing something right, if so many people are coming here!_), it also potentially cultivates toxic tribal mentality. + +With increase in size, we need to take the next step to scale our communication, so we can help our members better. + +If anything, we now have bigger responsibility to do right by a lot more people. + +We're announcing some efforts and committing to those publicly. We hope to get some of you to volunteer with these, without compromising on prior engagements on your part. + +### Initiative 1: Revamping our Wiki + +Reddit as a platform doesn't offer lot of functionalities that most modern knowledge base software provides. + +So we've decided to move our wiki archive to GitHub, and host our own web presence at https://www.indiainvestments.wiki + +With your help, we'd be able to grow our knowledge base, index it, organize it, link it, and share it. + +It's a lofty goal, but we're not afraid to dream big. + +Presently, we're working on three wiki chapters (prioritized based on popular requests): + +- Due Diligence / Fundamental Analysis +- Excel and How to Build your own trackers +- Everything Bonds + +We hope these would help newbies skill up on these areas, while also aiding veterans to revisit some basic concepts. + +[More details are available on our roadmap](https://github.com/indiainvestments/roadmap/issues/1). + +### Initiative 2 : Discord + +[Our Discord](https://discord.gg/hqBNg4u) presence has grown massively as well, from a few hundred to near 3k in a year. And we didn't have to give away any Nitro or Amazon Gift card for this! + +Common concerns around a chat based community can be same repetitive queries. The newbies would ask similar questions, which might be first-time for them individually, but not so for people who're a bit advanced. + +We certainly don't want to give a template response, such as _read the wiki_. These just create a sort of divide between newer & older joinees, and possibly sends a message they're not welcome there. + +I myself have learned a lot interacting with absolute beginners, who were looking for help; which I probably won't have learned otherwise. + +We're attempting to resolve some of these issues, by having a robust FAQ section for common queries, maintained and synced from GitHub, and triggered with bots. + +Idea is that most people should be able to get response to their query, which might be a common query, without much human involvement. This would free everyone up to continue discussing their areas of interest, without being interrupted as much. + +We'd be investing heavily in our Discord bots, to reduce overhead for our members, both for newer and older subscribers. + +[This is what our FAQs look like today](https://www.indiainvestments.wiki/faqs/), with more to come. + +### Initiative 3: Empowering Collaborators + +Before we made this announcement, we worked in a close group with handful of people, to ship the initial changes. + +But now that we're opening it up to everyone, others who want to contribute, should have a clear path towards being able to do that. It should be easy to contribute, without having to jump through a bunch of hoops. + +We've done our best to select tools / tech / platforms, that are free, well known, work well even on mobile, and not just on laptop or desktop. + +You can contribute in so many ways! It doesn't have to be writing docs - even reviewing what others have written is a tremendous contribution. + +[Our task board is filled with cards](https://trello.com/b/NPlSa3C7/journey-board), and we could really use some help. Especially with the lofty goals we have, for our [Due Diligence](https://github.com/indiainvestments/roadmap/issues/2) related sections of the wiki. + +We prefer passion and interest, over knowledge. Just the fact that you're willing to help, is more important than anything else in grand scheme of things. Knowledge can always be acquired, if you are passionate. + +[Do read through on how you can make a difference](https://indiainvestments.gitbook.io/content/contributors/how-can-i-start-contributing) + +You can reach out to us via modmail or Discord. + +One concept that we are very fond of is the +concept of being climate positive. At Poseidon, +we see a product or service as being climate +positive when at least 110% of the carbon +emissions are offset using carbon credits. +Assume a particular pair of shoes is responsible +for 20kg of carbon emissions. If you purchase +this pair of shoes and at the same time purchase +22kg of carbon credit from Poseidon, you have +effectively turned the purchase climate positive +as you ensure the continued sequestration of +more carbon dioxide than the pair of shoes has +caused. +We advocate this concept to all our clients, and +while it is not mandatory, we are proud to say +that every of our conversations showed that +being climate positive is the right way forward. +By making every purchase climate positive, we +more than account for the environmental +carbon dioxide stress of our lifestyle choices +and do our part to reverse climate change. +Compliance and +voluntary markets +The compliance market is a global market that +is the result of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris +Agreement, both part of the United Nations +Framework Convention on Climate Change +(UNFCCC). The challenge with the compliance +market is that there is no unified regulation and +that even within countries there are multiple +regulatory frameworks that are so incompatible +that trading amongst them is challenging and +in some cases not possible. This is one of the +many reasons why carbon markets have not yet +reached their required scale. +Voluntary markets allow everyone to participate +in them, be it a government, corporation or an +individual. Voluntary carbon credits allow the +support of any qualifying emissions reductions +project around the world and can be bought +anywhere in the world. Poseidon focuses on +voluntary markets as we believe only these can +scale quickly and globally, create a unified +market that can trade across borders, and +establish a single price for a ton of carbon +credit that will allow this market to grow to the +size nature needs it to be. +I get labor costs have to be a huge factor, but they can’t be producing all of the materials domestically- and that has to affect costs. I’m in Thailand right now (but the same is true for Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia etc), and like my huge dinner just cost me 150 baht. That’s like $4.38 US at current exchange, (and I’m in a tourist trap so it’s extra pricey). My soda cost 20 baht- the can was made of aluminum they don’t have, they don’t have petroleum to produce the plastic in my water bottle that cost 10 baht. Bangkok is a major urban center with huge skyscrapers made from steel and concrete, yet I can stay in fancy digs for like $25 US… I just don’t understand how they can afford to be so so cheap. Can y’all help explain? Like how the fuck can everybody afford a modern cellphone, computers etc- when top 10% earners are only pulling in like 17-20k US per annum… + +Edit: and some of the stuff like say farm equipment, cars, can only get so cheap regardless if it were purchased from China… so why is it all so inexpensive- how can I take a flight for 30 dollars across a country? Jet fuel doesn’t come at a discount, nor do 747s, ya know? + + +Edit 2: Thank you so all much for your answers, I get purchasing parity- U/Classic_Refuse_1578 stated much more clearly what I’m after though, how can products that rely on international trade be so inexpensive (given purchasing parity) Like, surveying my hotel room- the air conditioner is made by Mitsubishi, the fridge is Toshiba (I had no idea they made those products, but anyway) those- were likely imported from Japan, the TV is a TCL (which is Chinese) as are the beach chairs out front. The lightbulbs, Smoke detector and lock are also likely from China. Setting aside labor, the “materials” are probably comparable to a hotel in the west, so how can they be turning a profit charging me so little given that? Let alone entering to the business to begin with given the costs to entry, with such a smaller currency power? Or my plane example- I looked up the cost of jet fuel in a jumbo jet, and that’s about $40 a mile (and the plane itself is in the hundreds of millions) how are their margins positive, when they only charged me $30 to fly 415 miles from Bangkok to Phuket? There weren’t 415 people on my plane... and that isn’t even addressing labor... Or cab drivers? A second hand Chinese car goes for 63,000 yuan- that’s about $9500 US, which means it equal to about 1/2 the yearly income of a top 10% earner in Thailand. That’s be like if cabbies in the US were all driving $60,000 dollar cars... how is that driver turning a profit with a $9500 dollar car, not even counting petrol (which is far more expensive here!) given he’s charging much lower rates than even an off hour Uber in the west- Does it all really boil down to cost of labor evening it out? +*“It has been said, ‘time heals all wounds.’ I do not agree. The wounds remain. In time, the mind, protecting its sanity, covers them with scar tissue and the pain lessens. But it is never gone.” – Rose Kennedy* + +**CAUTION:** This guide is designed for the Redditor who has, at the very least, a basic understanding of how financial markets work, and have, at a bare minimum, some experience in trading stocks and options with their own brokerage account. If this does not apply to you, please stop reading immediately. Trading is highly risky and can bring about monetary losses if not careful. + +Hello Reddit! This is my guide to trading The Wheel, thetagang style! Since I’ve written a comprehensive guide on my approach to trading Options Spreads, I noticed a number of similarities between the two, so I thought I’d also create a guide to help alleviate some of the learning pain for beginners. + +I made it my goal to design a guide that captivates both beginners and professionals; covering the basics while also discussing the more advanced/important things to look out for to increase the success rate of The Wheel. As a bonus, I also share my own $0.02 / personal experience with The Wheel at the end. Of course, some of the statements made in this guide are influenced by my personal experience with The Wheel, including some lessons learned from my mistakes made and losses realized. + +Before we dive into The Wheel, let’s refresh our memory what an option is: a financial derivative that gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying equity at an agreed upon strike price on or before an expiration date. + +If you think about it, selling options is just like being in the business of selling insurance. In our modern society, insurance is a necessity, for it helps people protect themselves against the risk of financial loss. And where there is demand for a necessity, there is opportunity to supply; there is a reason why there are many profitable insurance companies, both small and large, private and public! + +Profitable insurance businesses will sell policies to the people who need it, and collect a premium until the policy term expires, whether naturally or artificially. With options, you can be in the business of selling insurance, all *without* jumping over the hurdles of setting up an insurance company! So how do we go about profiting from selling insurance premiums? By spending a ton of money on clever and funny ads about 15 minutes and 15 percent of course. Just kidding! If only selling options works that way. Though there’s a good chance you might find extra 15 percent portfolio gains after spending 15 minutes learning about selling options! + +So how do we go about making a profit from selling options? The same way insurance businesses go about selling policies of course! By selling policies for as high of a premium as possible, while making as low of a payout as possible to the policy holders! When it comes to insurance premiums, they tend to be priced the highest when the probability of a risk event goes up. Think about the demand for umbrellas, raincoats, rainboots etc. during a rainy day – that’s when demand for protection against the elements are high, and when vendors can subsequently price and sell them for higher than during a regular sunny day. + +I find that visualizing options contracts as insurance policies helps to understand the purpose of The Wheel strategy better: in the market, there is demand for Put options whenever stockholders wish to protect the downside, and a demand for Call options whenever short sellers wish to protect the upside. The Wheel aims to provide additional gains by means of selling options to these buyers for a premium. + +Whether you plan on Wheeling in your brokerage or retirement account, there are a few challenges you’ll need to overcome. Firstly, you’ll need to ensure your account is approved to perform key components of The Wheel, primarily: + +Selling a Cash Secured Put (CSP) + +\- You put up, at a minimum, a cash amount of 100x of the strike price as collateral, to be able to sell a Put option, while collecting the Put Premium. + +Selling a Covered Call (CC) + +\- You put up, at a minimum, a 100 lot of shares as collateral, to be able to sell a Call option, while collecting the Call Premium. + +Secondly, depending on the way you react to the above statements, you can already tell if The Wheel is a strategy for you. Due to the nature of options contracts in providing leverage (100x) the strategy can quickly require a substantial amount of capital to invest, depending on the underlying stock of course. The 100x amount may seem low if you are Wheeling penny stocks, and can quickly seem massive if you are Wheeling stocks like AMZN, BKNG, GOOGL, or CMG! + +Now that we understand the requirements, we can proceed to discuss The Wheel strategy at its simplest form: + +\- Step 1: Sell a Cash Secured Put to Collect Premium + +a. If Put Expires OTM --> Back to Step 1 + +b. If Put Assigned ITM --> Buy Stock at Assigned Price and go to Step 2 + +\- Step 2: Hold Stock & Sell a Covered Call to Collect Premium + +c. If Call Expires OTM --> Back to Step 2 + +d. If Call Exercised ITM --> Sell Stock at Exercised Price and go back to Step 1! + +\*OTM – Out of The Money, ITM – In The Money + +We want to profit the way insurance companies do: sell as many policies and collect as much premium as we can. Translated to The Wheel, it would mean that we try to sell as many Put and/or Call options as we can, while hoping for the options to expire OTM so we can collect the premium and move on. + +How do we ensure that we can sell options that pays a high premium? When it rains, you sell umbrellas and raincoats! When people are hungry at the ball game, you sell snacks and drinks! It’s all a game of supply and demand. The best indicator of a great stock to start Wheeling will be its Implied Volatility (IV) and/or its IV Rank (IVR). IV will come in %, anywhere from 0 to 100s of %, while IVR will be between 0 and 100. You generally want to know when the forecast calls for the heaviest rain, so look for something volatile and ranked high. Personally, I look for at least 50% IVR. + +Your brokerage should have this data available for you, and if not, do a quick search and you’ll find that there are a number of screeners out there who will give you this data for free albeit delayed; you don’t need IV/IVR data by the second, a 10-, 15- or 20-minute delay is fine, since you’re selling options days and weeks out anyway. Be warned: IV/IVR are both just indicators – once you identify high IV/IVR stocks, you need to understand why they are ranked high – did someone find out about fraud and theft? Is the company’s business model going obsolete, or are they filing bankruptcy? Whatever the reason, if the stock price is suddenly going to zero, there’s no reason to sell an option as insurance on the stock. + +Another place you can find great stocks to sell options on is right here on Reddit! Just take a peek at the hottest threads to find what stocks are hotly discussed. Some of Reddit threads will even give you a weekly list of high IV tickers, all for free! Again, please make sure you understand why the stock has high IV/IVR before you dip your toes in! + +In theory, The Wheel seems like a no lose, always win strategy; sell options as insurance, and walk away with pockets full of premiums. In practice however, the results may surprise you. I should warn you that The Wheel is by no means a magic silver bullet; losses are still possible especially when the strategy is executed poorly. + +I’m going to list some of the most common mistakes made, challenges faced, and risks encountered: + +\- You decide to Wheel only *one* stock in your portfolio. This is an insanely bad idea and is no different from YOLO-ing your entire savings into one stock. The worst-case scenario can happen where the stock plummets and breaches your short Put option where you get assigned and forced to buy the stock at a high price. Now you’re stuck bag-holding a depreciated stock with unrealized losses in your account. + +If you don’t have enough capital to hold a diversified risk basket of stocks, at a minimum of 100x each, then The Wheel is not for you! Yes, Wheeling solely EV, solely Cannabis, or solely GME is also a bad idea! Always *diversify*! + +\- You do not perform your own due diligence (DD) on the underlying stock and decide to start Wheeling the underlying. The worst-case scenario is where you have FOMO and start Wheeling by selling a CSP when the underlying has moved up significantly, where it has a significant chance of pulling back and catching you in assignment. + +Being assigned the stock, you are now holding the depreciated shares and immediately sell a CC when the underlying dropped significantly, where it now has a significant chance of pushing back up and having your shares called away, before you even get the chance to let the stock appreciate back and help recoup some of your unrealized losses. + +\- When Wheeling, it is completely normal to see unrealized P/L numbers on your account swing widely, especially when the option has yet to expire, as the underlying stock price moves up and down. The worst-case scenario is where you get emotionally swayed by seeing big red numbers, and you buy back the option you sold at a significant loss, without even actually going through The Wheel. Yes, this can happen on both sides, the Put and the Call. + +\- Again, without performing your own DD, you begin Wheeling a high IV stock. A stock with a high IV does not automatically mean that it’s great for Wheeling! Some recent (as of Feb 2021) worst-case examples (granted, it was hard to foresee what was coming with these underlying): see WKHS or CCIV. This is why we emphasize on Wheeling a *diversified* basked of stocks! + +One other consideration is to take in all available information at this point in time – yes, the stock has now dropped significantly: why is it doing that? Are they unable to grow their revenue? Has the company been found to be a fraud? Point is, if the underlying stock is a poor investment, you should cut your losses and move on to your next investment to find returns! + +\- When Wheeling, you sell CSPs on the underlying, but because of how strong the stock is, you never get assigned, and the stock keeps going up and now you feel like you missed out! Or you sell CCs on the underlying, but somehow the stock keeps going up only after your shares were called away, and now you feel like you missed out! + +Understand that this is the inherent nature of The Wheel. When you sell a CSP, you are selling an insurance policy stating that the strike price you sold a Put at is the price you are willing to buy the stock at, if and when it drops to that level. Conversely, when you sell a CC, you are selling an insurance policy stating that the strike price you sold a Call at is the price you are willing to part with your stock. + +\- You decide to Wheel an underlying stock that is not liquid, which even worse, is its options which are even less liquid. This means that on the options chain, you see massive gaps between the bid-ask spread. By Wheeling a non-liquid underlying, you potentially sell insurance policies that are low in demand, and thus collect low premiums that do not compensate you enough for the risk you are taking on. + +And here are some good tips and tricks, as it relates to selling options and The Wheel: + +\- Only sell options on or Wheel underlying stocks with a high IV, which allows you to collect sufficient premium for the risk you are incurring. Having a high IV underlying also allows you to sell options further OTM to avoid assignment/exercise. + +\- Options accelerate in decay at the 45 Days To Expiration (DTE) mark, so sell options that expire in 45 days or less. Selling a further expiry gives you more margin for error, while selling a closer expiry gives you less margin for error. + +\- If the option you sold has lost significant value since you sold it, whether from theta decay, or a gamma or vega movement, it’s a good idea to take profits off the table by buying back the option and initiating a sell on another option. + +\- If you prefer *not* to own the underlying stock and am trying to avoid assignment/exercise of the option sold, you can choose to roll the option. What this means is to buy back the option you sold while simultaneously selling another option, both transactions when netted should allow you to collect additional premium, if not a one-for-one exchange. + +**My $0.02**: like trading/investing with other strategies, one should be careful not to get swayed by emotions. The Wheel has many emotional avenues one can easily wander down: seeing unrealized losses when the underlying breaches your short option strike, or seeing your shares get called away and feel like you’ve missed out on the additional returns. Bad selection of the underlying stock to Wheel can also sometimes feel like “bag-holding with extra steps” due to the nature of taxes and time spent under portfolio management. + +The Wheel is best used with the approach of selling Puts only when the underlying has moved significantly lower and selling Calls only when the underlying has moved significantly higher. It’s best approached using a combination of Fundamental Analysis (FA) and Technical Analysis (TA) to identify the low and high points of the stock before selling an option, that way you increase your chances of collecting option premiums without having your short option going ITM; I use the same approach when trading options spreads. + +There may also be efficiency in returns to be found with a hybridized approach: instead of solely selling Puts on the underlying while waiting for assignment, consider both selling Puts *and* buying stock in the underlying. While this approach is far more complex due to multiple moving parts involved, it allows you to reap the multiple benefits of the wheel and not feel left out. + +In my experience, I have found The Wheel’s returns after taxes to be lackluster *after* factoring in the investment of my time to monitor the underlying and manage my positions; if you’re actively monitoring and investing, why not seek higher returns to account for your time and energy investment? The best consideration: if I’m spending all this time to do The Wheel, am I getting paid enough to do it? Am I going to beat buying & holding an ETF *after* taxes? Am I getting compensated enough in the form of returns for experiencing the stress and emotions from The Wheel? For me, it was a solid “no” to all of the above, but YMMV. + +**TL;DR** The Wheel can be an effective tool when used correctly, but its use requires both a sizable portfolio along with dedication of one’s time towards active monitoring of the underlying and management of portfolio positions. In summary: + +*Pros* + +\- Ability to collect Put premiums from excess volatility to lower cost average. + +\- Ability to collect Call premiums from excess volatility to reap additional returns. + +*Neutral* + +\- Requires sizable portfolio to allow for diversification of risk. + +\- Requires active monitoring of underlying stock & overall market. + +\- Requires active management of portfolio positions. + +\- Incurs short term capital gains tax, due to the nature of trading in and out of positions <1yr. + +*Cons* + +\- Potential to miss entry point into underlying stock when Put option is not assigned. + +\- Potential to cap underlying stock returns when Call option sold is exercised. + +Thanks for reading! As with any new strategy, I highly recommend that you paper trade it first to get yourself familiar before going in with your own hard-earned cash. + +Let me know if there are other interesting thetagang (or even non-thetagang) strategies you’d like my two cents on. Like my opinion on The Wheel, I promise I will try my best to be factual and impartial to the strategy, while also giving you my own personal experience with the strategy (if I’ve traded it). + +**DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor, just an opportunistic trader who has invested more than a decade of his own time and personal money to trade different stocks & options strategies for portfolio gains, sharing his experience for your kind Upvotes and Awards.** + +Edit: Noticed some funny/unknown symbols showing - edited post to remove them. Updated tickers and 100x multiple definition. +Hi guys, + +I wanna say a huge thank you to everyone that got involved with the terminology glossary I posted in here over the weekend, I didn't imagine many people would have been interested but I received a ton of messages and it gave me a real confidence boost to do more. + +I said in that previous post that I would be creating a chart pattern booklet as a follow up to the glossary and a lot of people said they wanted it so I have spent the past few days putting it together. I have found these patterns myself as opposed to copying and pasting from Google as I thought it benefit me a lot more if I actually went out to find the patterns in the market. With this is mind, some of them may not be the worlds best example, however all of them reflect the pattern type. + +There are 15 patterns included with a description of what they are, how you can identify them and what they mean. I have kept the descriptions as concise as I can so not to bore you with lots of text. Again I am still new to this, I am merely creating learning resources for myself and sharing them with you so if I have forgotten anything please let me know and I will get it updated in due course! + +I hope you like it and any feedback is welcome! + +Enjoy :) + +EDIT: A few people have asked what timeframe these patterns are for, I probably should of clarified in the document, but these patterns are not limited to any one timeframe, an example of this is that an 'Ascending Triangle' for instance, can form on any timeframe, be it a 1min, a 15min, a 1hr or a 1day. The same goes for all chart patterns listed. + +[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UD6ANEhx9E-P0JReCO4-3dngoV1iK68z/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UD6ANEhx9E-P0JReCO4-3dngoV1iK68z/view?usp=sharing) + +Printable copy - [https://drive.google.com/file/d/18YlN9v8GTZ2pcp2Y\_mR1T\_-LEKJi1kHy/view?usp=sharing](https://drive.google.com/file/d/18YlN9v8GTZ2pcp2Y_mR1T_-LEKJi1kHy/view?usp=sharing) +Hi, I’m 16 borrowed 1k from my parents. I was confident i can be profitable after studying and trading paper money for 4 months. Basically after months of trading on a live account I blew up my 1k account. It was a good experience and somewhat knowledgeable. For the past few weeks I was up +500 then down -400 then finally I blew up my account. Shortly after blowing my account I’ve realized, trading might not be my thing or I just need more practice. This made me realize how much greed and how much trading is more of a psychological warfare. It was easy to stick to your trading plan using only 1-3% of your account per trade when your not using real money. My plan for now is to just try and get a job and return the money i borrowed (still scared to say i lost all the money) and keep paper trading for 6 months or longer. + +Edit: Thanks for the advice and helpful comments as well as for the criticism. I’ve been reading the comments and getting the most value out of them. I’ve decided to follow some of the comments I think made the most sense. So here’s my plan: + +1. Get a part time job +2. Pay back my parents +3. Save money +4. Learn, practice, learn forex +5. Paper trade + +Also a lot of people have asked me how in the world did I manage to trade when I’m only 16. Answer to that is my parents agreed to open an account under their own name. + +Also thank you again for going out of your way giving advices. It really helps me out a lot. +Let me preface this post with a very clear statement: I'm not the gatekeeper of theta gang, nor are my opinions infallible and perfect. The aim here is to define what *I* consider to be theta gang strategies. + +Why? Because I keep seeing more and more posts that are doing things which *for me* do not belong under the theta gang umbrella. With a large influx of new users recently due to the whole GME thing, I am worried that some of these posts can be misinterpreted as strategies which are safe yet bring outstanding returns. + +Ok, so what is a theta strategy? IMO, these are strategies which primarily rely on time decay of short option positions to bring profits. As an important part of the definition I would consider that these strategies have to be relatively safe. Two most common theta strategies are selling Cash Secured Puts (CSP) and Covered Calls (CC). CSPs involve selling put options while having enough cash to get assigned the shares. CSPs as a theta gang strategy also means that you are absolutely willing to get assigned these shares and hold them while you sell CCs against them. CCs means that you are selling call options and have enough shares to cover these options in case you get assigned. Again, I only consider selling CCs as theta gang strategy if you're ok with the shares being called away. + +What is the "correct" way to sell CSPs (again IMO)? Before you sell a CSP as part of theta strategy, you should make sure that you are absolutely happy to hold the shares at that price, i.e., you actually believe the company is worth that much. If you get assigned, there should be no panic, it's just a normal part of theta gang. I sell CSPs on ZM, got assigned, I'm fine. Just sell a CC on them and move on with my day. If you feel anxious about your position, it's probably not theta gang. + +I want to specifically address put spreads which seem to have become popular recently. Are they theta gang? They *can be*, but in the way they have been used they are certainly not. I would consider a put spread as theta gang when you are somewhat worried that there might be a lot of fluctuation in the market in the short term so you're worried that the price of the underlying could suddenly drop significantly and you don't want to carry this paper loss while it's recovering. So you do a put spread, and if the price drops you get assigned while collecting some cash from the long put. You took less premium but you hedged against some bad thing happening, nothing wrong with that. I personally never use spreads because I hedge using other means, but like I said, this is a valid strategy. But the posts I've been seeing with 50% profit in a day on 250 contracts are most definitely *not* theta. Would you be fine getting assigned 25,000 shares of PLTR? If yes, I apologize. But OP claimed his/her whole account was about that size so this was definitely not a play to get assigned the shares. This was a play purely based on the move of the price of the underlying (i.e., delta). If the stock moved the other way, the loss would have been 100%, assuming they didn't close early. Not theta gang. With theta gang, you should never have to close early because your position is losing money. The only way I would close a losing position early is if new information about the company came about which made me rethink my thesis on this company. + +In short, there are many ways to make money gambling, I mean investing. It is however important IMO to be upfront about the risk/reward tradeoff involved, especially with so many new users who can be easily lured into trades they do not understand. I get the need to show off somewhat on an amazing trade you did, but there are other subs more appropriate for this sort of thing, if your trade isn't really in the spirit of this particular sub. Again, my personal opinions, not financial advice, you don't get to sue me because you lost money etc etc. +> What is the biggest wealth destroyer when investing? Averaging down or buying more of an asset, be it stock or crypto, as the price keeps going down and hoping that the price bounces to recover losses or make profits faster. Common behaviour among retail investors. +> +>While it is tempting to average down, the odds of this strategy working are significantly low in the long run. All it takes is one large move on the other side for things to go wrong. The right way, for most people, is to not have concentrated positions. +> +>Saying this because of pings from friends asking if they should buy more Bitcoin to average the price, by exiting other assets. I have zero knowledge or exposure to Crypto, but the rules for investing are the same: Reduce % exposure if the risk is high, & don't Average down. 3/3 + +[https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201](https://twitter.com/Nithin0dha/status/1394941622224179201) + +I believe that, in the long term investment, if I know that a company is fundamentally great and as long as the reason behind my belief in company holds good, it is better to acquire more shares in the fall. + +I know that main context of his tweet is cryptocurrency, which is highly fluctuating. But, does his theory apply to stock market too? +For example, the Netherlands had a GDP per capita of 57k USD in 2008, compared to 52k in 2020. Meanwhile the USA had a GDP per capita of 48k USD in 2008, 15% lower than the Netherlands, meanwhile in 2020 it had a GDP per capita of 63k USD, 20% higher than the Netherlands. Some people would say it's related to asset overvaluation in the US financial markets(like Tesla), however considering how much salaries are higher in the US than Europe it also indicates that there is some real value being generated if they can also afford to pay those salaries, rather than a mere stock bubble. + +What do Americans get it right that Europeans can not? +I've found it interesting (though often discouraging) to read about others Algo Trade experiences. Unlike most, I've been coding for 25-years and have a nearly decade of experience with Amazon competitive pricing algorithms. So, I feel uniquely qualified to undertake this challenge. + +The last 60-days has been an interesting journey. The first issue was the data providers (recommended by others here). I found much of their data to be total garbage, and that was an added frustration on top of the costs, and BS throttles/limits. The best I've found is [eoddata.com](https://eoddata.com). The data is clean and accurate, and I believe free if not using the API to download the CSV. + +After finally getting some usable data, I've spend much of the last two months modeling terabytes of it. I erroneously believed that AI could make predictions or I would find patterns for algorithms. Instead, the conclusion is... it's all random! Nearly every conceivable possibility resulted in a score of 50/50 - a coin toss! That was a huge revelation. + +To test the Coin Toss Hypothesis, I picked 10 stocks at random that closed up, 10 that closed down, and another 10 at total random, for 3 days. The results were 53/57/54% were up the next day. Nearly identical to the results of my modeled AI and Algos. + +The only outside indicator I've found reliably moving stocks is the news. On average positive and neutral stories move stocks up. Most of the providers suck at classification though. Even simple classifications such as "is it related to this stock?" they get wrong a lot. I think to succeed at this would require AI with natural language ability. Perhaps OpenAI. + +What I decided to do was go back to the supercomputers and run thousands of simulations as if this was a game and the goal is to earn points ($). I gave it just a few simple rules governing account balance and buying more on dips to amortize the position. I gave it $1000 balance to test each stock (NYSE/NASDAQ) and the results are truly unbelievable. When I do an audit (random selection), their accurate. Had I actually bought X shares at Y times they would have produced Z results. + +Over the weekend I just got the data from the latest simulation. It generated TRILLIONS in simulated earnings. I still need to review it in more depth, run more simulations/audits, etc, but this seams like the way to do it. + +I'm still a ways away from trading live. Want to do more research. But I hope you find this information interesting, as I sure did. I'm sharing my general research because 99% of all the money is owned by 1% of the people. Lets take some back! +It's something we hear a lot but is there any truth to it? + +Most 'rich' people are business owners who are able to deduct expenses such as employee wages and by purchasing goods. But aren't these goods and wages also major tax sources for the government? + +Would there be a more effective way to tax the 'wealthy'? +I made about 2 million after taxes on meme stonk calls in january and as of today I'm done working. I didn't quit earlier because teleworking wasn't bad but now that we have to go back into the office I decided to call it quits. It only took one day of commuting to realize how shitty it is that I used to be conditioned to wasting two hours of every weekday. + +My boss didn't believe me when I said I was done working until I said I'm not coming in after the 18th and if he doesn't want me to outprocess I won't. + +I don't have many plans going forward other than playing some games I've always wanted to get into. I've started an indoor garden and I've started reading books for enjoyment for the first time since high school. My biggest worry is that I will get bored and go find another job after a few years, but hopefully I can find some other cool stuff to do. + +As for what I'm going to do with my money, I'll just pay off my house (my only remaining debt) in full to bring my yearly expenses down to the 25-35k range. I'll slowly put most of it into an sp500 fund over the next 2-3 years. After digging into bonds I decided that I'd rather just have cash instead and use that to buy any major dips that come up. I want to keep my withdrawals in the 2-3% range since that seems to be best for making a nest egg last forever. + + +I'll probably do periodic updates since I imagine there are likely others like me who made a lot this year. + +PS: fuck health insurance costs. I shouldn't have to pay like $500 per month and have a 17k deductible for a two person household + +Edit: got a lot of questions about my positions. + +I cashed out my 401k of about 80k and went all in on gme calls far out of the money. I still have some gme shares but I don't count those as part of my current net worth and I'm holding like a proper ape. + +Edit 2: LOTS of people are commenting that I'll run out of money. While anything can happen, every study I've read came to the conclusion retirement funds are not expected to ever run out if someone only withdraws a few percent per year. The investment would be expected to actually outpace inflation and grow. + +Others have said that I'll be living on too little which I also don't agree with. I'm already living at these income levels since I've invested nearly all my spare income over the years (like the FI sub preaches). The only difference is now I don't have to go to work to exist anymore. + +Edit 3: +I paid all my taxes already, the two mil figure is after taxes. +My QLD driver licence details were stolen in the Optus ‘cyberattack’ so I’m trying to get ahead of everything. + +I can’t get a new driver licence number. Surely this can’t be correct? I have to wait until my details are used by a criminal first? Live chat with Department of Transport and Main Roads this morning. +DD I saw posted elsewhere: hedge funds are trying their hardest to short ladder $AMC and $GME. Just hold your stock, buy more if you can afford to! + +Check out real time trade stats by googling: "Nasdaq AMC real time trades" and you'll see all the trade orders are 100 share volumes every millisecond. + +These are desperate hedge funds trading their stocks back and forth for a lower and lower price, driving the price down. The price drop means absolutely nothing AS LONG AS EVERYONE IS HOLDING, this will explode! + +The shirts tried their damndest to drive down the share prices of both $GME and $AMC today. Specifically look at $AMC. With all that volume traded you’d expect a shitload more movement. What they got was **resistance** You could see them continuing the ladder attack after hours when YOU can’t trade. On BOTH stocks. + +The way forward is to tell them to go fuck themselves and BUY that shit up tomorrow. Let them keep punting the football back and forth to one another all day. If they can double down and play the long game SO can we. + +This is not financial advice. I’m just a retard who REALLY likes these stocks. + +Edit: **LOOK AT THIS SHIT LOL** https://twitter.com/beijing_bobby/status/1356377066988564486/photo/1 + +Edit 2: **IF YOU’RE WONDERING IF YOU ARE DOING THE RIGHT THING WITH $AMC EL PRES KNOWS AND IS STILL HOLDING.** +https://twitter.com/Thowe51/status/1356320431142268928?s=20 +There's a rich kid in town. Let's call him Melvin. He thinks he's really smart. He finds a coupon for $20 off the new Nintendo Switch during the holidays with no limit on number of units. This is easy. I'll go ahead and sell the Switch now for $200 and then buy it for $180 with the coupon. Easiest $20 I'll ever make. He goes and tells all his parents' friends at the Citadel Country Club that he can get them the new Nintendo Switch for their kids. He collects $200 each from 150 parents. He now has $30K and will use that money to purchase Nintendo Switches for $27K. He'll have earned $3K in just a few hours. His parents will be so proud. + +There's another kid watching Melvin this entire time. Let's call him Keith. Keith doesn't like Melvin. Keith is good friends with the guys over at Gamestop. He finds out that there are were only 100 new Switches shipped to the entire country. Keith and his 99 friends buy all 100 Nintendo Switches on the spot. + +Later in the day, Melvin goes to Gamestop with his $20 off coupon and says, "I'll take 150 Nintendo Switches please." Gamestop guy looks at him and says, "Sorry, we're all sold out." Melvin goes to the next Gamestop. Same story. All sold out. He goes to all the Gamestops in the city and can't find a single Switch. He won't be able to fulfill the orders. + +Meanwhile, Keith is telling all his friends about what Melvin promised the members at the Country Club. Nobody sell him the Nintendo Switch that you bought, no matter how much he offers you. Nobody likes Melvin, so everybody holds on to their Nintendo Switch. + +Melvin is in trouble. His parents rich friends are all asking when they are getting their Nintendo Switch. Melvins parents are angry, but they don't want to lose their standing in the Citadel Country Club. They have to help Melvin gets 150 Nintendo Switches. Now remember there are only 100 Switches in the city, but Melvin has created the expectation among the parents that there are 150. This is how you get a short percentage over 100%. Melvin has promised more than actually exist. + +The price of Nintendo Switches in the city skyrockets. Melvins parents were able to get a few units from Keiths friends, but they had to pay really inflated prices for them, first $1,000, then $2,000, now $3,000. It's nearing Christmas, and every rich parent at the Country Club is desperate for the Nintendo Switch they promised their kids. They can't trust that Melvin will be able to get them one. They all start bidding against each other for Switches. Everybody in town is in on the action now. Everybody wants to get a Nintendo Switch to sell at the country club for $10,000. Meanwhile, Keith and his friends are just hanging out and playing Animal Crossing. + +\[Edit 1: Thanks for all the love and awards. I'm really grateful. I'll try to answer as many question as I can on the thread and in the DM's\] + +\[Edit 2: A few astute monkeys have pointed out some flaws in my story. The example above is an oversimplification and I left a few important elements. So here's an expanded version and I've had to adjust some of the numbers above to make room for new wrinkles. + +In a more accurate version, Melvin went to his brother Steve's high school and borrowed 150 Nintendo Switches from the high schoolers. He tells them all that if he doesn't give them back within 24 hours, he will give them each $5 per day. The high schoolers know that it's not likely that Melvin will give it back in 24 hours, so they will be perfectly happy to collect $5 per day. He sells the 150 Switches to the Country Club parents for $200 each, but now he owes 150 Switches to the high schoolers. This is a naked short. He sold Switches that were borrowed but didn't own. Let's assume the Country Club parents wrapped the Switches and they are now under the tree and out of circulation. Although there are 250 Switches in the city, there are now only 100 Switches in circulation (Keith's friends). So you have a situation where Melvin owes 150 Switches to high schoolers and there are only 100 available (150% short position of float). Melvin is overconfident and thinks he will get 150 Switches same day or at the very worse case, the day after, and maybe have to pay 150 Switches x $5 penalty = $450. He'll still have made $3,000-$450 = $2,550. The $5 penalty due to the high schoolers is interest or Melvin's carrying costs, so the longer Melvin cannot get the Switches, the more expensive it's going to be for him. After 4 days, he's at break even and will lose $450 for each day he cannot get a Switch. It gets very expensive for Melvin and his parents very quickly. This is what's happening for the past week or so for GME. The hedge funds are bleeding money every day they cannot fulfill the IOU. + +For those who are asking why Melvin doesn't just pay off the high schoolers with money, let's say that the new Zelda game is coming out and they all want to play. They also know that the price of Switches is rising. Even if Melvin offered $800 or $1,000 to cancel the IOU, they know that they can no longer get a Switch on the open market. In addition, the high schoolers are probably aware of the rising trend in Switch prices. They may think that it's better to wait for a Switch that will be worth $15,000 in a few days than to get paid off by Steve now for $1,000. So while it's possible that Melvin could buy his way out of it, it's very difficult.\] +I don't want to sound all doom and gloom but the more I read the news and learn about the economy (I am an engineer by education), the more pessimistic I am about the future of our kids. + +We have more than 1 year of almost double-digit inflation in the EU, the EUR/USD exchange rate went down from 1.15 to almost 1 since the beginning of the year, and the housing crisis is worsening. All of this according to my layman understanding of how economy works means that: + +1. People's savings took a big hit and lost a lot of value the last year alone +2. The building materials went up, which means that even less affordable housing complexes would be built this year, as most of the investors would either slash their building projects or proceed with only the luxurious ones, where the margins are much bigger and considered safer bets +3. Real Estate in Europe became less attractive to the general population because of the increasing interest rate of the mortgages and shrinking purchasing power but more affordable for investors with cash on hand, especially foreign investors, for example in the US and depending on the specific country's policy, might additionally worsen the housing crisis. +4. Energy and food prices are through the roof, which will put a lot of pressure on the low and middle-income earners +5. All of this while the income of the majority of the population didn't increase, we are talking about probably more than a 10% hit on their disposable income and their savings + +I am fully expecting this autumn/winter to have huge strikes disrupting, even more, the economy and governments across Europe and I genuinely wonder how our kids would be able to purchase let's say a flat or a house without inheriting the said house/flat or inheriting a big pile of cash. + +Especially seeing how the whole economy is moving towards a subscription-based economy for more and leaving us with even less disposable income at the end of the month. Kind of Orwellian reality. + +Am I the only one having those dark thoughts? +The US Army—facing a potential recruiting crisis not seen since the all-volunteer force was created almost five decades ago—is stepping up its efforts to get Generation Z to sign up. + +Pentagon statistics that cover the period through the end of March showed the number of active duty military forces had been falling for the prior six months; for the Army specifically, it was down 3.1% compared to a year ago, while Pentagon active duty forces as a whole dropped 1.9%. + +People from the Department of Defense have told us that they are concerned about both the number of people who do not meet the standards for joining the military, and the smaller number of people who even try,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) said in an interview. “That is a problem for our nation.” + +Of 34 million people born after 1997, 4 out of 5 can’t qualify to serve in the Army, the service’s data show. + + +https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/us-army-is-facing-war-for-talent-courting-gen-z-with-benefits +Jim Sinegal founded Costco and grew the business from scratch into the $195 billion revenue juggernaut that it is today. His company is among the top 10 largest by revenue, yet his personal net worth stands around a measly $1 billion. + +I find this unusual as he has all the makings to be one of the worlds richest people. An original founder of a company with a $250 billion market cap. Meanwhile Larry Ellisons net worth exceeds $100 billion although his company Oracle is much smaller in terms of revenue. + +How is it that some entrepreneurs maintain large ownership of their companies while others don’t? +It feels like 90% of the front page posts I see from this sub are about how someone is making a killing with their quarters they have earned a day or how we should be impressed that a humble 20 year old already has a dividend portfolio going. + +Any way we can limit/ban these posts that are the exact same thing every single day? They add nothing. And when people criticize or give feedback, it’s not unheard of for others to come in yelling “no one asked for feedback, don’t discourage OP!!1”. + +I’m not sure the purpose of those posts if people don’t want anyone to be critical. Is it just karma farming? Is it looking to get a pat on the back? + +Come on, mods. This sub can do better. + +Edit: FWIW at the time of writing, there are no fewer than 5 of these posts on the front page of this sub today. +**Please read major edit. Drastic turn from when I originally posted.** + +**TLDR in this bull run of a year, capped my gains by selling calls on my stocks and didn't make enough in premiums selling cash secured puts compared to just being long the underlying. The wheel cost me $575,947 in missed profits.** + +&#x200B; + +So I'm fairly new to this, but I figure I'd try to come up with as good an account of my first yearish of wheeling. + +**Background:** I've generally been buy and hold with 80% of my portfolio for a few years, but last year I decided to try and sell covered calls as well as Cash-secured puts on cash that resulted in any of those covered calls being assigned. + +The very first trade was selling a covered call on my existing shares of AMZN on March 17, 2020. I was still a little panicked by Covid, but didn't want to exit AMZN, my biggest gainer at the time. So to express my fear, I thought I'd sell a call. At the time, AMZN was 1807. The strike was 2120. I collected $3500 in premium for this. 45 days later at expiry, AMZN was at 2287. I lost about $13,000 on this very first CC. + +Keep in mind, this started at around the peak of Covid panic last year and in hindsight, just going long some of these equities would have been better and many CCs were assigned at the beginning. + +Not everything was high IV. I was coming from a place of buy and hold ETF investing, so many of the initial stocks I sold covered calls on were ETFs like SPY, QQQ, IJS... etc. + +Appreciate any comments or advice / if I'm looking at things the right way. I had to tease out some other trades that were messing with my data, but in general, I filtered for opening trades (Interactive brokers denotes which trades are opening and closing) and when they were a "sell" that opened the position, I just classified it as a thetagang trade. Anyway, here are the results: + +&#x200B; + +||Covered Calls|Cash-Secured Puts|Total| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|Total Opened Trades|74|46|120| +|Average Days to Expiry|31.6|27.4|30| +|Average Annualized Yield on Underlying / Cash\*|38.41%|39.55%|| +|Closed Via Expiry|44 (72.1%)|33 (84.8%)|94| +|Closed Via Assignment|12 (19.7%)|2 (6.1%)|14| +|Closed Manually|5 (8.2%)|3 (9.1%)|8| +|Total Closed|61|33|94| +|Total Premiums collected|147,441|242,454|389,895| +|Missed Profit\*\*|\-163,239|\-808,765\^|\-971,271\^| +|Saved from Losses\*\*\*||$5,429|| +|**Gain / -Loss relative to buy and hold underlying**|**-15,798**|**-560,882**|**-575,947**| +||||| + +**\*Average Annualized Yield on Underlying / Cash:** Here I took the premium received, divided it by the underlying commitment (market value of underlying stock for CC at trade, cash for CSP) and multiplied it by 365/DTE to annualize. + +**\*\*Missed Profit:** For covered calls, this is simply the amount above strike at expiry x contracts \*100. This was particularly hurt by AMZN (-90,970), SHOP (-22,096), and SPOT (-13,220). For Cash-secured Puts, I looked at the price at selling the put vs the price at expiry. The assumption was, anything I sold a CSP on, I was willing to hold - so this was the opportunity cost of me selling a put instead of just buying the stock. Notable opportunity costs here were ZM (-7,235), and SQ (-4,770) + +**\*\*\*Saved from losses:** On the other side of the coin, selling a put instead of buying the underlying also saved me from some losses when the underlying went down. This funnily enough, also ZM (4,399) + +Now, while AMZN was the most missed profit, wheeling it was a net profit of $8,691 due to collected premiums. The biggest loss due to wheeling was SHOP where net of premiums, the effect of wheeling was -$7,281. + +**ALSO.** Big note, I just realised I hadn't adjusted these for the relative size of these positions. Maybe I'll do so in an edit. + +I sadly couldn't easily extract out the volatility / deltas at the time of the trade via the Interactive Brokers trade report, but I generally targeted 0.30 Deltas for both CCs and CSPs. I went by gut for higher deltas for CC when I felt like I didn't want to hold the underlying anymore. This may have been my undoing. For the longest time I couldn't reconcile the bull market with the things going on and expressed this bearishness with higher delta CCs which probably resulted in my getting assigned. + +**First Conclusions:** + +Given the staggering recovery since march, it's unsurprising that many of the CCs I sold became ITM. While I did take some comfort riding the OTM to ITM range, tabbing things up today and seeing that I was net negative on CCs is a bit of a blow. + +Overall, it was an interesting learning experience. I might continue to do so. I currently have a disproportionate amount of cash as a result of being sold out of some shares, and I'm continuing to sell CSPs on that as well as CCs on the remaining stocks. Overall it feels like running the wheel was still a net positive. + +For me, selling CSPs has also been a mental help. While I do believe I need to keep as much capital in the market for long run growth, it was hard to do last year with all the negative news. Selling CSPs tied my hands to "buy dips" while compensating me for not necessarily investing all my cash immediately well above any savings account rate. + +**Edit 1:** Note on Missed Profits.I feel like I should once again stress that "Missed Profits" is relative to Buying-and-Holding the underlying which I'd like to establish as my default position. It's not missed profits relative to holding just cash. The question I had on my mind was is wheeling (or its components of CCs / CSPs) better than the alternative of just buying the underlying, which I was doing before this. + +Intuitively, for a bull market we can see it like this. I was pretty fully invested in equities. so let's just say I had a delta of 1. Selling the CCs reduced my delta by about 0.30. So as the market rose, I only rose 70% as much. I'm comparing my default Delta of 1 to a CC delta of 0.7, which in a bull market is worse than my default. + +If you're comparing a CC to a CSP in a bull market, the CC should do better since it's a total delta (1-0.3) of 0.7 vs the CSP of 0.3. + +Again this is my rough understanding, but there seems to be some confusion of why I don't count the gains of the underlying stock. It's because **I would have had those gains in the base case anyway so they cancel out. I wouldn't have been in cash.** + +Even more simply put, on the CC side, if I hadn't sold calls, I would have been 15,798 richer. BUT as another user has mentioned, if I hadn't, I wouldn't have sold the CSPs which would have made me 223,750 poorer. So despite that CC column, I will continue "wheeling" (some have suggested this isn't wheeling but hedging a long underlying) as the net effect from my point of view is doing $207,952 **better** than what I was doing before which was just buying and holding. + +**\^MAJOR EDIT:** I kept being bothered by how low my missed profits were from CSPs relative to CCs in this bull market. (Reminder, I said my alternative to CSPs was buying the underlying). + +I went to my spreadsheet again and realised I had made a huge mistake. I had this formula item where I said max(f(x),0) instead of min(f(x),0). I've fixed it, and I'm sure there are may be more errors but this makes sense tome. + +It's a huge change. I almost want to delete this post because of how misleading it was when I initially put it up. Wheeling instead of just buying and holding for the specific stocks I picked was incredibly costly to me. I capped my gains initially selling those early CCs on my stocks resulting in missed profits of 163,239. Once those assigned calls were in cash, I sold puts on stocks which if held, would have gained 560,882 more than the premium I received. + +There are a lot more open questions like if I would have in fact had all those positions if I were just sticking to my buy and hold portfolio, but I think I'm going to review my sheet some more before I spread too much misinformation. I actually was less than fully secured by cash for puts I sold. Looking at my portfolio now, I'm actually short about 70,000 cash to cover the puts I've sold if they are all fully assigned. Though if I account for the low deltas, I have enough for any likely assignments. To calculate that missed profits though, I still use: + +(Stock Price^(At Put Sale))-(Stock Price^(At Put Expiry)) \* Contracts \* 100 + +Only when Stock Price at put expiry > stock price at put sale. + +I'm definitely re-thinking wheeling in the future. This kind of jives with intuitively what I thought would be the case - wheeling would be worse than buy-and-hold in a bull market, but I thought it might have some portfolio volatility dampening effects which I have to later investigate. Many of the articles I've read on backtests also show wheeling underperforming long term buy and hold. + +&#x200B; + +[https:\/\/spintwig.com\/spy-wheel-45-dte-cash-secured-options-backtest\/](https://preview.redd.it/jximnrlk7ig61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8883e0d5713a83e8c61f4ebedf74df2a5815e990) + +Anyway, this is pretty chastening for me. It initially felt good to look at premiums and relatively few assignments and think that I had done well. In actual fact, my choice to deviate from buy-and-hold had cost me an enormous amount of money. I'll look into my actual stocks, deltas, vols, DTE etc to see if anything could have been done better in my selection or if the solution is simply to buy and hold instead of wheel in a bull market. + +I will state though it definitely didn't feel like it should have been a bull market the whole way through, had I known I would have just gotten LEAPs. But hey - hindsight is 2020. +There's been lots of posts here [such as this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/lxoc3e/is_there_a_free_source_that_calculates_for_me_dcf/) asking for automated DCF's and DCF questions so I'm sharing something I created. The mods have allowed me to post it. + +DCF tool: [tracktak.com](https://tracktak.com) + +Here's an example for IRobot: [https://tracktak.com/stock/irbt-us](https://tracktak.com/stock/irbt-us/discounted-cash-flow?cagrYearOneToFive=0.18&ebitTargetMarginInYearTen=0.1&yearOfConvergence=3&salesToCapitalRatio=2.5) + +If you need help on how to do a DCF, I wrote some docs here: [https://tracktak.com/how-to-do-a-dcf](https://tracktak.com/how-to-do-a-dcf) + +The tool is based on Aswath Damodaran's fcffginzu DCF spreadsheet: [http://www.stern.nyu.edu/\~adamodar/pc/fcffsimpleginzu.xlsx](http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/fcffsimpleginzu.xlsx) + +I use it to quickly verify if a stock has a margin of safety based on my projections for it's revenue growth and margins. + +It calculates the beta based on industry average and ERP based on the residing country. It does not use the CAPM model as aswath damodaran does not either. + +Any suggestions for improving just say :). + +See r/tracktak for updates. + +Thanks +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/long-island-iced-teas-stock-rockets-nearly-500-after-changing-name-to-long-blockchain-2017-12-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo + + +B U B B L E +But I love it. + +It’s incredible. As platforms that enable us to do our own investing and make our own decisions become more and more popular, so too do the pleas from the money managers that are losing our generations’ business. + +‘If you don’t use an advisor you’ll retire x percentage less wealthy’; ‘lower fees don’t always mean better returns’. These threats make me feel like I’m taking to a used car salesman. We’ve done our research, and we choose lower MER. The audience they are speaking to has already moved on. We don’t need to buy your investors’ corvettes. + +Also, fuck you RobinHood +Currently have 3M€ (2.5M in an investment fund doing well {around 13-16% yoy} and 500.000€ cash). Many years ago I bought a stake in a company that is being sold and will net me an additional 7-8M€ after tax. I live a comfortable but not excessive life in Spain and my earnings more than cover my living expenses plus occasionally luxuries/hobbies. What on earth do I do with the extra? I have an initial meeting with JP Morgan private bank next week and another with Santander private bank. My fear is that this is such an unknown for me, I will make bad decisions because I don’t have enough knowledge. +Grateful for any advice. CGT is around 24-26% here. Rent and additional expenses around 150.000€ annually (earnings exceed this). I’m 45, love my job and nervous about messing this up. Very keen to donate a significant chunk either via a foundation or privately. +Doesn't matter where you go, I'm not going to suggest any brokers. However, there are a number of brokers you can find who didn't stop or limit trading on stocks. Having people post gains on the RH app gives new users a reason to give money to those scum thinking its the preferred app. When they gain new members and you own a stock like GME at a good broker it still fucks you in the end when they limit their clients ability to buy. Allowing RH posts is a negative for everyone, they can manipulate the market more and more the larger they get while knowing full well the SEC won't do a thing. I wasn't in on GME but it's a slippery slope. +Three months ago I was laid off as part of a 60 person lay off in a small company of 125 people. I do Occupational Health and Safety work as I was the Manager. I was given unemployment; been searching for jobs. + +Fast forward 3 months, tax bill passed, etc. I get a phone call from the president of the company asking me to come in because he has an opportunity. He tells me things are picking back up and the company needs me back but he's trying to shop me at a discounted rate. + +I had been with the company 6 years and he says he wants to give me 20 hours at 60% of what I was making to do consulting work for 4 months until my lease is up. This seems like a super low ball offer especially because they don't have to train anyone, I already know all of the employees, I am familiar with their policies as I wrote many of them. Also after 4 months I cant get back on unemployment and having taken such a drastic pay cut I wouldn't be very well equipped to ask for more money in the future. + +I feel like this is a slap in the face and I want to counter offer their 60% slap with a 125% slap back. + +Does this seem unreasonable?? Just seeking some guidance. + +Thanks yall! + +Update: I weighed in at 250%. Haven't received any response it's been a couple of hours since I sent my proposal. I had to run the numbers several times. My head hurt. + +**Update: It's been a week and haven't received a response. +The Reverse Repo Program (RRP) is, in layman’s terms, a program where market participants lend cash to the Federal Reserve, in exchange for an interest rate of usually 0.8% and typically overnight in exchange for Treasuries or other government securities, with a promise to buy them back. + +That rate today changed from 0.8% to 1.55%. + +Today’s (6/15/22) RRP was over $2,000,000,000,000 (Yes. Two TRILLION dollars), so that means those market participants will get over $84,000,000 (84 million dollars) total when they return those securities tomorrow on 6/16/22. There were 96 market participants, meaning of that $84,000,000 on average the market participants will get back approximately $875,000 tomorrow EACH. This happens on a DAILY BASIS! On average over $4,000,000 a week is going to these market participants. + +So while market participants are getting nearly a million dollars daily on average, the average citizen is paying over 8% more this year for gas, food, rent, and more. + +Oh yeah. That 8% more? Yeah… It’s most likey double digits (think 10% to 15% minimum) thanks to the Federal Reserves recalculation of what’s included in their inflation “calculations” + +When the shit TRULY hits the economic fan, don’t be angry at your neighbor for whatever their personal choices are. Be mad at those who are responsible. + +As someone I know once said “To hell with the left and the right. Stop dividing the people💜” + +Bullish + +Edit 1: Maf + +Edit 2: The point I’m trying to make is that market participants are getting paid more daily by the federal reserve while everyday people continue to be hurt by inflation + +I am not trying to say the RRP award is tied to inflation in any way + **🦸 DEKU INU 🦸 THE NEXT SAITAMA — THE ONLY OTHER SUPERHERO ANIME PROJECT!** + +&#x200B; + +Following the anime hype, this project has Luffy and Goku vibes around it. Team is highly professional and quite solid. Solid 10X MINIMUM. + +&#x200B; + +💎 Providing holders/enthusiasts the opportunity to invest in a project with established ties to the manga industry through NFTs & their upcoming web-based gaming platform. + +&#x200B; + +✅ They have been listed on CMC and CG in just 5 days after launch. And in their upcoming roadmap, partnered with key artists such as Mobile Suit Gundam & Evangelion for key exclusive NFTs. + +&#x200B; + +✅ They're also developing an RGA (Random Generated Artworks) HERO NFT project. $DEKU looking into partnerships with already existing projects to give early access to $DEKU holders to buy and access these partners NFTs, Games, pre-sales and updates. + +&#x200B; + +✅ They have ongoing marketing campaigns rolling out and their next step is getting into Dext Trending before moving up to their phase II on roadmap! + +&#x200B; + +⚠️ IN THE PROCESS OF ONBOARDING & PARTNERING with a huge influencer that has guest appearances on Joe Rogan. Alpha leak directly from the dev team. $DEKU is going to be an easy min 10x, if not 50x by the time the official news is out. + +&#x200B; + +PRO TIP: Use 2% to 5% slippage to BUY and add '99' in the end of the amount of TOKENS you are buying. I.e. If you are buying 100.000, change it to 100.099. + +&#x200B; + +\~2M Market Cap circ supply (3.5M Market cap fully dilluted) + +&#x200B; + +**$DEKU** + +📄Contract - 0xa1a88cea335edaf30ce90f103f1434a773ea46bd + +👩‍💻Website - [https://dekuinu.com/](https://dekuinu.com/) + +💬Telegram - [http://t.me/dekuinu](http://t.me/dekuinu) + +📝White-paper - [https://dekuinu.com/Deku-Whitepaper.pdf](https://dekuinu.com/Deku-Whitepaper.pdf) + +📊Dextools - [https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0x786e67fec4fc0537630d4b91ac222cd95a1e8a72](https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0x786e67fec4fc0537630d4b91ac222cd95a1e8a72) + +&#x200B; + +💰Potential: x3, then x6, then (maybe) x10 plus 🚀 + +💸 Tax: 8% (3% Marketing| 3% Reflections | 2% LP. +I am 33 now and able to afford to put 4k a month into something safe like VOO. I want to retire by 53. Will this be possible or is there a better course of action? +So, I'm sharing a secret tip of mine that I've used to make most of my gains this season. + +**A technique I've refined to find amazing, under the radar Twitter profiles.** + +Because in my opinion, following the correct accounts on Twitter can have a huge benefit to your success in this space. + +I'm not talking about huge influencers. I'm talking about those insane, under the radar accounts with a few thousand followers who are just freaks at finding gems. + +**So, here's how.** + +When you come across a project/coin that has done incredibly well, search the $Cashtag in Twitter (e.g. $PILOT), but then select the three dots in the top corner for 'Advanced Search.' + +In the advanced search, re-enter the $Cashtag in the top field and then scroll to the bottom to find 'Dates.' Here, you can select an exact date range to refine your search! + +**The important part: choose dates before a coin started to blow up.** + +For example, search $PILOT and select the date range October 10, 2021, to October 15, 2021. + +The result? + +You'll find whoever was talking about PILOT before it blew up. These are people who had conviction before anyone else (and even enough conviction to post about on Twitter about it). + +You can now follow these accounts and wait for the next project they talk about. + +You'll end up finding the most amazing accounts who will provide the alpha going forward. + +**EDIT: Then you DYOR on these projects!! I'm not saying ape blindly into whatever they call next haha, it's a starting point for finding new projects then commencing your own research.** + +Lastly, some of these smaller accounts have Telegram or Discords in their bio, so you can interact with them directly. This lets you dive even deeper. + +Hope this helps! WAGMI +It is absolutely mind boggling that the media has spent the past day or so spreading these bullshit stories suggesting that retail and "meme stocks" pose a serious threat to the market. + +How is it that the ultra rich can basically GAMBLE in the stock market with over-leveraged positions, Dark Pools, insider information, etc. for YEARS and there is nothing to worry about. + +All of a sudden a group of people find out about some bullshit that the ultra rich are doing to generate infinite money and BAM, HOLY SHIT GUYS, THE ENTIRE MARKETS AT RISK OH NO!!!!!! + +I have never lived through an event quite like this. Every day I go online or watch TV and we see some old white guys malding over how dog shit of a company GameStop is. Like, if its so bad, why the fuck do you care? + +The irony is that the more they talk about it, the more obvious it is that GameStop is the ultra rich's kryptonite. + +"Meme stocks" are not a threat to the entire market, they're a threat to the financial terrorists that have been running rampant throughout our markets for decades with ZERO repercussions. I for one am glad that somehow, some way, we found a way to stop all the criminal bullshit that happens daily and quit literally goes unpunished. + +As an XX HODLer just know, if all it takes is for me to simply live my life and NOT sell a few shares of a company that is responsible for YEARS of amazing childhood memories than fine, that is exactly what I will do. + +EDIT: Thank you all for the comments, without going through and replying to every single one just know that it is nice to see we haven’t lost sight of the true endgame. No matter what bullshit they throw at us we stay Zen and focused on the goal; making a fuck ton of money and changing the world for the better. I am proud to be apart of this community. I have been here since March and will never leave. Apes forever strong! See you all on the moon. + +EDIT 2: WOW, I just woke up and honestly can’t believe the traction this post got. Top of r/all? Jeeze. Anyways, please know that I am not claiming we, the apes, have literally crumbled the economy. I am saying that this is the narrative the media is starting to write and it’s bullshit. Please try your best to read my post entirely before commenting. For those that read it, thank you for the comments! Hope everyone has a great day! +[Guardian article](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/30/no-return-workers-offices-could-cost-uk-economy-480bn-pounds-cebr) + + +The UK economy could lose almost half a trillion pounds of output if workers fail to return to their offices, a study estimates. + +Douglas McWilliams, a former chief economic adviser to the Confederation of British Industry, has warned the economy will not return to its pre-pandemic size until 2025 if home working continues in its current form, which would add up to at least £480bn in lost activity. + +McWilliams said: “‘If we carry on working at home when at least half want to return, we run the risk of turning into a 90% economy with GDP stuck a 10th down off its peak.” + +The research, conducted for a client of McWilliams’ consultancy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), comes as one of the UK’s biggest employers plans to permanently close nearly 100 offices.. + +Capita, the outsourcing group that runs the London congestion charge, confirmed reports that it is preparing to close more than a third of its 250 offices across Britain. + +The move will be seen as a huge blow to the government’s efforts to persuade commuters to return to work in their offices, as thousands of businesses rely on bustling urban centres. + +Last week one of the best known, the sandwich chain Pret a Manger, added to the worries about how sustained remote working would impact businesses by saying it planned to cut nearly 2,900 jobs following the desertion of high streets. + +Meanwhile, many companies have signalled they will continue to allow staff to work from home, an indication that the pandemic has prompted a major shift in the office-based culture that has been a hallmark of City firms for generations. + +The accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers and the fund manager Schroders are to allow the majority of staff to continue to work from home. NatWest Group – also the owner of Royal Bank of Scotland – has told 49,000 of its 65,000 staff to keep working from home until 2021. + +McWilliams added that the damage from a permanent shift to home working would be severe because the economic activity generated by commuting and socialising could not be replicated by people working from home. + +However, the CEBR forecast is based on nothing changing with home working, which McWilliams stressed “more likely it will”. +Based on the [popular thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/878fxv/is_there_a_such_thing_as_personal_finance_for/) earlier this week, I started a sub and could use some help with mods, content, and the like. + +/r/povertyfinance for those interested. + +If it's not OK to post this here, feel free to delete. +I guess I could crosspost this to r/AskHistorians as well. + +The main thesis of Guns, Germs and Steel is how our environment shapes our societal evolutionary trajectory and the main thesis of Why Nations Fail (more generally Acemoglu's work) is that geography has little to no influence on the way societes evolve but rather institutions are the key factor. + +Acemoglu gives the example of North/South Korea to illustrate how geography is not a significant factor but also has other published works in which he details how African societes evolved with regards to the colonial period and demonstrate that being closer to the equator does not play a significant role. + +Are these two contradictory or am I reducing them too much to allow them to coexist ? + +Thanks + +Edit: thank you so much for your answers everyone, I'll try to read them all and answer if I have any contribution to make +Its been on my investment bucket list for years now, and despite graduating college only to be thrown into a horrendous seller's market, I finally won one. I was starting to have doubts if I could ever compete with 100% cash buyers (the reason why my offers weren't accepted on every other property before this one). I finally found the right duplex, in my budget, and the right offer to persuade the seller on going with a mortgage-buyer instead of cash. The plan is to rent the larger side and live in the smaller side for the next couple of years. + +Everyone had to get their start somewhere so if you have tips or failures you'd like to share from your beginning days, I'd love to hear it, and hopefully other young investors find this helpful in the future. Cheers! +Just wanted to take a moment to thank u/skillzty for [his DD post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Canadapennystocks/comments/lbxp7b/high_tide_hiti_hitif_undervalued_cannabis_retailer/) about HITI. + +I find a lot of DD posts are published once the share price has already gone up, however skillzty posted it right before it soared 🚀 so everyone that got in late last week after his post is already at least 25% up + + +Thanks again and please keep up the good work, might your future be full of gains 💸 + + +Position: 500 shares at an average of 0.68 + + + +P.S. Hope this doesn't count as spam, I couldn't find an appropriate flair for it, I just wanted to show my appreciation and to maybe, hopefully, encourage other people to make more posts like his 📈 +**Holy shit at the money people spend on food!** + +And I was the exact same way when I landed my first job out of college. You know what I'm talking about--biscuit and Starbucks on the way to work, lunch out with coworkers and pizza and beer at the local tavern for dinner! Every night! All week! Professional money spender! And more beers and dinners on the weekends! Woohoo! + +Wait. Where did all my money go? And how the hell did I gain 40 pounds in six months? If you're nodding your head you've fallen into the brand-new-job-big-salary-eat-out-because-I-can trap. And you have to stop it. It's killing your bank account, it's killing your financial freedom and it's killing *you*. (Literally--I was on the edge of type 2 diabetes and had hyperglycemia during routine physicals.) + +**What you know you need to do: *STOP EATING OUT*** + +But how??? How do I stop eating out??? Fast food is *soooo* good! And cooking is *soooo* hard! Well, first off, not really--you're just attuned to that garbage 'food'. You're going to break free of both these stereotypes and someone has already invented it..... + +>Crockpot. It's the crockpot. Crockpot. Crockpot. Maybe you call it a slow cooker, but I'm from Georgia and here it's a crockpot. + +***!STOP!***--If you do not own a crockpot I highly recommend you go buy one from Amazon and buy the biggest one you can afford! + +Get one with a timer that switches to warm after the cook settings: *JUST GOOGLE IT CAUSE MODS DONT LIKE LINKS!* + +**BOOM!** $39 investment. We're going to make that back in.... *three days*. Are you ready? We're going to make enough food for dinner *AND* left overs for lunch. + +I'm going to give you some of my super-secret-I-eat-this-every-week-crockpot-meals that are delicious, cheap, filling and easy. Yes. The crockpot makes *all* of those possible. + +**MEAL 1: Thick Cut Porkchop with Potatoes and Carrots** + +>Servings: 4 + +>Ingredients: + +>1 Can Beef Broth (50 cents) + +>1 Packet Brown Gravy Mix (50 cents) + +>1 Packet Onion Soup Mix (50 cents) + +>1 Package of 4 Thick Cut Porkchops ($7) + +>6 Carrots (50 cents) + +>4 Large Gold Yukon Potatoes ($2) + +>Sack o' Salad ($2) + +>Total cost for lunch and dinner: $13/4 about $3 each. + +>Spray or wipe crockpot with cooking oil. Add beef broth, gravy mix and onion soup mix and stir. Place porkchops in broth. Chop carrots and potatoes and add to top of porkchops. That's it. + +>PREPARE THIS BEFORE YOU GO TO BED FOR THE NEXT DAY! Put it in the refrigerator and pull it out in the morning. Cook on low for 8 hours. When you get home make your salad and dig in. Use the left overs for lunches and/or dinner for during the week. + +**MEAL 2: Sausage, Potato and Kale Soup** +>Servings: 4 + +>1 Pound Italian Sausage ($4) + +>1 White Onion ($1) + +>1 32 Oz Box of Chicken Stock ($1.50) + +>1 Bag of Prewashed Kale ($3) + +>3/4 Cup Heavy Cream ($1) + +>5 Large Gold Yukon Potatoes ($2) + +>1 Head of Garlic ($1) + +>Total cost: About $14/4 = 3.50 a serving + +>Brown italian sausage with chopped garlic and chopped onion. While meat is browning add to crockpot the 3/4 cup of heavy cream, chicken stock, and chopped yukon potatoes. Add browned sausage and top with half the bag of kale. (I get two recipes per bag of kale). + +>PREPARE THIS BEFORE YOU GO TO BED FOR THE NEXT DAY! Put it in the refrigerator and pull it out in the morning. Cook on low for 8 hours. When you get home dig in! Use the left overs for lunches and/or dinner for during the week. + +**MEAL 3: Super Awesome Easy Chili** +>Servings: A Lot (6-8?) -- I eat this *all* the time and it's delicious. Stores really well in the refrigerator (and chili gets better over time!) + +>3 Cans of Black Beans ($2) + +>2 Cans of Hot Chili Beans ($1) + +>2 Cans of Red Kidney Beans ($1) + +>8 Cans of Diced Tomatoes ($6) + +>1 Pound of Ground Beef ($4) + +>1/2 Cup of Chili Powder ($1) + +>1/4 Cup of Garlic Powder ($1) + +>1/4 Cup of Onion Powder ($1) + +>3 Tablespoons of Cumin ($1) + +>3 Tablespoons Black Pepper ($1) + +>Edit: The spice proportions are correct! This makes nearly two gallons of good (about 7L). + +>Edit: Salt to Taste($1) + +>Total cost = $20/8 = About $2.50 per serving + +>Drain the tomatoes and kidney beans but don't drain the black or chili beans. Brown the ground beef. Add everything to the crockpot and stir like crazy.... and that's it! + +>PREPARE THIS BEFORE YOU GO TO BED FOR THE NEXT DAY! Put it in the refrigerator and pull it out in the morning. Cook on low for 8 hours. When you get home dig in! Use the left overs for lunches and/or dinner for during the week. + + +It's easy guys. It's really easy. You spend 15 minutes a night and you make *tons* of food for lunch and dinner and you save a LOT of money! AND ITS GOOD FOR YOU! (better than Wendy's--that's for sure!) AND ITS EASY! + +**Stop spending your money on eating out and go full crockpot! I am much happier and much wealthier!** + +EDIT: For our vegetarian friends. You can't get any more simple than this! + +**MEAL 4: Baked Potato** +>Servings: As many potatoes as you bake + +>1 Potato + +>Cover in tin foil and place directly in crockpot. Cook on low 4-6 hours or keep on warm all day. + + +**MEAL 5: Vegetable Soup** +>Servings: However much you want to make + +>Tomatoes, Potatoes, Green Beans, Zucchini, Carrots, Peas, or Onions + +>Vegetable Stock + +>Onion Powder, Garlic Powder, Salt and Black Pepper + +>Add vegetables in any proportion you desire to crockpot and add vegetable stock until covered. Season to taste. Cook on low until vegetables are tender. + +EDIT 2: I live in Georgia and shop at Kroger--prices may vary. If you live in Canadia or buy organic free range vegetables harvested by hipsters with a minimum of a master's degree you will obviously pay more. + +EDIT 3: "Just learn to cook!"--Yeah, okay guys. I agree. I cook more than just in a crockpot. This post was inspired after I read a /r/personalfinance about a single guy who spends $1300 a month on food because "he didn't have enough time to cook with work". I wrote a very long comment and just made it into a post. The point was you can eat decent food in a short amount of time and save money by planning one day ahead. + +EDIT 4: I agree fresh vegetables are better and these aren't the *healthiest* recipes. This post was just to encourage those that eat all the time to transition to something healthier... and then they can transition to something even healthier... and on and on until they've become a raw vegan, growing their own vegetables, saving the whales and composting regularly. + +EDIT 5: Electricity costs: Crockpots seem to consume between 200W and 700W per hour. That's between 2 and 6 kWhs for 8 hours of cooking. That's about 15 to 60 cents. It seems insignificant relative to the overall cost of food. + +EDIT 6: I'm not a shill or marketing person for crockpot. I'm a mechanical engineer. Don't believe me? My first post on reddit ever was about bolt failures: https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3e20vs/bolt_failure_modes/ctatj1y/ + +Take off your tin foil hat..... and use it to wrap a baked potato to put in your *new crockpot!!!* +Doing my research I can see that stock trading commissions on US brokerages - TD Ameritrade, Robinhood, Schwab are basically $0. There are no annual management fees as well. + +Compare that to the UK where some brokers such as Hargreaves charge you a whopping £12 per transaction AND a 0.5% management fee per year. How can this be? Why is the UK so expensive compared to the US. Oh, and we need to pay for foreign exchange to buy USD..... + +Then, since the UK government banned the sale of US ETFs, we need to buy expensive UCITS ETFs which have a comparably higher management fee..... +The suit was filed January 18th 2017, by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) against Navient. + +First, know that the CFPB has requested that the Court order Navient to comply with the following actions, among others: + +1. Restitution to consumers harmed by Navient's conduct; + +2. Disgorgement of all ill-gotten revenue + + +Here are the details of the allegations: + +From [consumer affairs .com](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/feds-sue-student-loan-servicer-navient-011817.html): +>Specifically, the suit charges that Navient: +>> Fails to correctly apply or allocate borrower payments to their accounts; + +>> Steers struggling borrowers toward paying more than they have to on loans; + +>> Obscured information consumers needed to maintain their lower payments; + +>> Deceived private student loan borrowers about requirements to release their co-signer from the loan; and + +>> Harmed the credit of disabled borrowers, including severely injured veterans. + +From the [LA Times](http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-navient-lawsuit-20170118-story.html): +>In its lawsuit, the consumer agency alleged many other borrowers had problems enrolling in programs to reduce payments and Navient instead steered struggling borrowers into plans that made more money for Navient but saddled borrowers with higher costs. + +>Specifically, the government alleged that Navient maintained compensation policies that encouraged customer service representatives to push borrowers into forbearance, which allows borrowers to suspend payments without defaulting but does not stop interest from accruing. + +>However, most federal student-loan borrowers earned the right in 2009 to enroll in the less costly payment options that are based on their income. + +>Although those plans save borrowers money, forbearance was more lucrative for Navient, the agency alleged because the company could enroll borrowers in forbearance in less time and with less staff. + +>In all, the servicer slapped borrowers with additional interest charges of up to $4 billion by enrolling them in repeated forbearance plans from January 2010 to March 2015, according to the consumer agency. + +If you want to learn more about this, I highly encourage you to read the original complaint filed with the court by the CFPB. It is VERY readable (not filled with legalese) and reads as an absolutely scathing indictment of a company whose business practices targeted its most vulnerable customers in flagrant violation of the law. + +You can find the original complaint on the [consumer finance .gov website](http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/documents/201701_cfpb_Navient-Pioneer-Credit-Recovery-complaint.pdf). They also [summarized the complaint on their website](http://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-sues-nations-largest-student-loan-company-navient-failing-borrowers-every-stage-repayment/). + +In the spirit of this sub, I'm sharing this information because there are plenty of people here who may have been a victim of these alleged practices. Including myself, as I've been paying down my Navient loans since 2012 and have several years to go. + +I'm going to read through the complaint again, and if anything important jumps out at me that I haven't mentioned, I'll update this post. + +**Edit:** +Additional allegations: + +(since July 2011) Disregard of borrower instructions when processing payments submitted by check with written instructions from the borrower specifying how the payment should be applied. + +(Jan 2010-March 2015) Using uncharacteristically vague email titles like “New Document Ready to View” to notify borrowers that they needed to renew their income-based repayment enrollment. During this time, the number of borrowers who did not timely renew their enrollment regularly exceeded 60% of borrowers and resulting, often, in capitalization of interest. + +**Edit:** There is no way to know how potentially impacted borrowers will be affected by the lawsuit. We will have to wait and see. Lawsuits of this magnitude often take a LONG time to get resolved. + +(edit: formatting, fixed a link) + +There's been lots of posts here [such as this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/lxoc3e/is_there_a_free_source_that_calculates_for_me_dcf/) asking for automated DCF's and DCF questions so I'm sharing something I created. The mods have allowed me to post it. + +DCF tool: [tracktak.com](https://tracktak.com) + +Here's an example for IRobot: [https://tracktak.com/stock/irbt-us](https://tracktak.com/stock/irbt-us/discounted-cash-flow?cagrYearOneToFive=0.18&ebitTargetMarginInYearTen=0.1&yearOfConvergence=3&salesToCapitalRatio=2.5) + +If you need help on how to do a DCF, I wrote some docs here: [https://tracktak.com/how-to-do-a-dcf](https://tracktak.com/how-to-do-a-dcf) + +The tool is based on Aswath Damodaran's fcffginzu DCF spreadsheet: [http://www.stern.nyu.edu/\~adamodar/pc/fcffsimpleginzu.xlsx](http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/fcffsimpleginzu.xlsx) + +I use it to quickly verify if a stock has a margin of safety based on my projections for it's revenue growth and margins. + +It calculates the beta based on industry average and ERP based on the residing country. It does not use the CAPM model as aswath damodaran does not either. + +Any suggestions for improving just say :). + +See r/tracktak for updates. + +Thanks +We do this once a year in this sub and I think now is the time. + +Please post the mutual funds you have invested in and also share your rationale behind selecting that fund. + +This would not only help people who have just started investing in mutual funds but also to those semi experienced people. We can adjust our portfolios accordingly. + +It would be helpful to mention the number of years you are planning to invest in the selected mutual funds and weather you have done SIP or Lumpsum. + +Thanks in advance. + +PLEASE UPVOTE THE POST TO GET MORE VISIBILITY. IF SOMEONE CAN PIN THE POST FOR A DAY THAT WOULD BE GREAT TOO. +Labeling this DD because, aside from having to do with *an offer to be paid to post DD*, I actually performed due diligence on the [offer](https://imgur.com/a/tziYjXQ). + +If you think those alarm posts yesterday about top posters here/YouTubers getting paid to distract apes during the MOASS was FUD, I'm here with [proof](https://i.imgur.com/ybOBrfA.jpg) it's totally fucking true. (Details edited out for privacy. More on why below...) **I have now sent unedited proof of the company to mods just for public integrity so you all know I'm not making this up. ~~No I will not publicly out them right now~~ [Update 4/18](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtc4xu/buying_influence_the_pump_and_dump_scheme_preying/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)** + +[Update 1: I posted part of the phone call for the naysayers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msdr64/yall_wanted_proof_here_is_the_first_60_seconds_of/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Some of you may know my username from memes. Sometimes I overdose on crayons and throw up a colorful DD. Some people think I'm crazy because I've posted some kinda out there theories (I stand by every one of them). But I'm just doing my thing, posting about GME in a few main stock subs since January. Cruising around reddit being a trippy lil pink cat 🐈🍄💕 + +In the last couple of weeks I feel the tides have changed on the battlefront. Obvious paid shill accounts with the ol' adjective-noun-number format in their username started commenting way more hateful, personal stuff on my posts. All kinds of messages that seemed like they were meant to be not too aggressive, but make me paranoid none the less. After I made a few seemingly big connections in my recent posts, my account was reported for self harm. (I am a perfectly happy and content lil kitty, don't worry 🙂). Things started getting a little spooky. I also got over [100](http://imgur.com/a/02FrYiS) new followers just after posting that same OP. (I'm not going to link it here because that's not what this post is about.) + +**Did you hear me?!** *Over 100 new followers in like a 2 hour time frame. After a post that got like 30 upvotes and some Q comments.* + +Which brings me to why I'm posting this now. I was approached yesterday by a brand new reddit account to *Get paid to write posts/DDs/memes in our stock subs, but only about certain NASDAQ/NYSE/OTC/EURO companies. NOT GME* + +I scheduled a phone interview yesterday afternoon because... y'know... curiosity killed the cat. And of course I (legally) documented it. I am not implying the company itself is malicious, that's not for me to decide, therefore I will not be sharing it here. I have thrown it into the void of the SEC and my local reps, along with all the other things I've shared with them. Not as a whistle-blower, because my evidence doesn't necessarily prove (or disprove) anything directly. + +But it sure jacked my tits in the confirmation bias dept. + +As I said, I'm not going into detail about what was discussed. But I would be paid to post DD and other content about a certain assigned company or stock and essentially, it seemed to me, to "pump" that stock in our beloved subs (ok I can actually prove that with the offer itself). It is in fact a real media company making this offer. I think they are paid to come to us top posters and try to ~~bribe~~ distract us away from talking about GME. The woman I talked to was just a rep that knew nothing of reddit or how it works, but she said their "expert team of social media analysts familiar with reddit has been watching me and chose to approach me."🤷‍♀️(Please don't out yourself here if you're among us ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ as I've tried very hard to avoid calling anyone out or accuse of anything directly.) + +I did not give them my real name. They got a burner phone number to [contact me](http://imgur.com/a/itcxxer). I actually requested they just call me Pink for the phone call 🤭👑 + +**I want you to know I'm certainly not taking the offer.** I am not going to be paid to blow up this sub with posts about other stocks besides my precious GME. Like, I literally don't care about them. And nothing will ever pay me enough to mislead or distract my fellow apes. There is no other situation like GME, we all know that. I just got enough information from them to validate that this is a very legit offer, and now I have it. It's my own confirmation bias that all of this is legit, it's not just in our heads. + +GME has already changed my life. This community is literally like family even though I don't know a single 1 of you apes. I want to help, I want to support, I want to educate, I want to boost morale. Paying me to spam distractions during such a critical time? + +Your downvote bots didn't work. + +Your hateful, personal comment attacks didn't work. + +Your onslaught of sudden followers didn't work. + +Your paranoia inducing messages didn't work. + +Your self harm report didn't work. + +AND THROWING MONEY AT ME WON'T WORK. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +🦍🤝💪APES TOGETHER STRONG BABY🦍 🤝💪 + +**STAY EVER VIGILANT MY DUDES** ✌ + +🗣Shout out to my real followers I'm buying you all drinks on the Moon 💎💅💕 + +Edit: I was told on the phone that I would post in the same subs I'm already active in. So while this is an opportunity to be an "influencer", it is meant for me to post about *the companies that pay them, in the subs I am already established i.e.- Superstonk, WSBNew, and GME* + +I should also note that their company clients can directly choose my reddit profile and my "expertise/reddit presence" and hire me from a list of these "influencers". They mentioned having contact with 7 other people on "stock reddits" (lol). Idk who I didn't wanna ask 🤷‍♀️ +Our child is going a private four year east coast college. We are FAT but trying not to spoil him. All of our trusts are confidential and completely discretionary. He went to a private high school and but does have a summer job. I want him to enjoy school and studying. What is a reasonable allowance per month for him? 529 will cover most of her other costs (housing, travel, books, etc). + +I don’t want him to be the spoiled trust fund kid that I hated in college. + +Any insight and thoughts are appreciated. 🙏🙏🙏 +I did a few economics units as an undergraduate in university and I remember being surprised that there is an economic argument for welfare as helping to mitigate the effects of the business cycle. + +I've also seen people argue that, due to the multiplier effect, welfare actually 'pays for itself' in that it generates more economic activity than it removes from the economy. + +Is this true? Is there a strong economic case to be made for the welfare system, or is it something we implement mostly on humanitarian grounds? +I am a consistently profitable Day Trader. I say this because you should not take advice from someone that isn’t successful enough to make a living at it. Of course anyone could say this, so judge the quality of the advice for yourself. + +I’ll also note that I’m an asshole. Not to everyone though. If you really need help and you’re clearly putting in the effort, I’ll give you my time and energy to help improve your trading. But if your lazy and just want to make quick $$, I’m going to call you out. + +As I’ve said before in other posts - Day Trading is NOT easy. Anyone that tells you otherwise is either an idiot or trying to sell you something (or both). + +I’ve also said that even though it is difficult, it is very doable. If you put in the time and effort there is no reason you can’t be a profitable Day Trader. + +Around six months ago I wrote out some tips on here, these can be added to those, although some are repeated given how important they are. + +So, in no particular order: + +1 - Do not restrict yourself to just “Day Trading”. Every great Day Trader is also a great Swing Trader. Anyone who tells you that Day Traders never hold positions overnight immediately disqualifies themselves from saying anything else, as they are a moron. In fact, I typically won’t Day Trade a stock unless I like the Daily chart. Why? Because let’s say I buy a stock and the market reversed. Now if I picked the right stock (more on that in a bit), it won’t drop as much as the market does, but I’m still down on it. For this example I buy 2,000 shares of stock XYZ at 50 and SPY goes from 390 to 388.20. The stock might drop to 49.60. I know the stock is strong, the technicals are all in line, and it’s well above its Daily support indicators. I also know SPY hasn’t had a technical breakdown. Rather than take the $800 loss, I can hold XYZ confident that on the next bounce for the market that it will go above $50. + +The point is - be flexible. + +2 - Speaking of being flexible, have many different tools in your trading repertoire. You don’t have to just go Long or Short. Sometimes a better play might be a Call Debit Spread for instance. Many mornings I’ll see a volatile stock up a lot (Boeing for example). So instead of buying the stock, I’ll do a CDS instead. On BA I did a 255/260 CDS for a $1.20 debit, and sold it later for a $3.60 credit - a 200% return (gave $120 per contract, got $360 per contract, for a net gain of $240 per contract). I might have made more just buying the stock, but instead I took a conservative approach just in case the market reversed. + +3 - Do not hold a position, either in stock or options, through earnings. The result is too unpredictable with the stock, and the options will lose tremendous value through IV reduction. It’s a pure gamble. + +4 - Get off that one stock. Maybe you got your ass kicked by a stock early in the day. So you keep going back to it so you can get “even”. At the end of the day your account doesn’t care if you lost $1,000 in one stock and made $1,000 in another. Choose the stocks based on the market and the technicals, not because it “beat” you earlier in the day. + +5 - Stop chasing losses and/or prematurely taking profits. Traders tend to stay in losing trades longer than they should, and exit profitable ones too early to lock in their gain out of fear. This also goes for averaging down - don’t do it. Averaging up works a lot better. + +6 - Understand your trade before you enter it. If you buy a Stock at $50, do you know what your stop will be? Do you have the right entry? And with options, what is your exit strategy if it goes against you? Know where is support/resistance, VWAP, etc. And most important - what is the market doing? Note - I rarely use stops, almost all of my stops are mental, but this is an individual traders choice. I’ll just note that you should not be using stops on stocks that have huge swings. You’ll get knocked out of a trade before you ever had a chance. + +7 - If you don’t fully understand something, don’t do it. For example, don’t enter into an option spread unless you completely get how it works, how to leg out if it goes against you, and when to take profits. Take the time to learn it before you do it. + +8 - Very Important, perhaps most important (I did say these would be in no particular order) - when Day Trading you want to be going long on stocks that have Relative Strength against SPY and short on those that have Relative Weakness. I am NOT talking about RSI (a crap indicator btw). I’m talking about when SPY drops during the day, notice which stocks held up. Those are the ones you want to buy when SPY rebounds. I can not stress enough how important and central this is to your success. A vast majority of stocks will follow the market. If on the 5 min chart SPY is down down down and stock XYZ is up up up, or even flat, you know that stock is strong. That’s the one you want to have when SPY rebounds. + +9 - Many Day Traders trade on their own. However I have found that trading in a solid community of traders, with a great chat room only increases your success. Especially for beginners. + +10 - However, if you’re in that chat room, don’t chase someone else’s day trade unless you analyzed it yourself. You may miss some opportunities doing this, but you’ll also prevent yourself from being trapped in a trade you didn’t understand. + +11 - The idea you “missed the big move” has no basis in reality. If stock XYZ is up $20 you might figure you already missed the action and move on - this is a mistake. Look at the technicals. Chances are this is still a good opportunity, especially if there is relative strength against SPY. + +12 - You’re not smarter than the market. You haven’t thought of something that others haven’t already considered. This type of thinking leads you to make decisions before you have technical confirmation that you’re correct. Institutional buyers have more resources and information than you, and whatever you’re thinking, they’ve considered. You can see the actions they took by looking at the charts. Your decisions should be based on the charts, not because you think NFLX will go down since the pandemic is ending. That’s not “brilliant insight”, it’s just a way to go broke. + +13 - Day Traders trade what is in front of them - price action, technicals on the Daily and 5/1 minute (mainly), market conditions of that day, volume, etc. A great trade at 10am could be a terrible idea an hour later. You need to be nimble, to move quickly and to trade what you see at that moment. + +14 - If you’re too anxious about any one trade your position size is too big. + +15 - Don’t overtrade. Sometimes Day Trading is boring. Don’t force a trade just because you haven’t traded in awhile. Wait for the right opportunity, it will come. Last Thursday, I hadn’t traded for two hours, and then SPY started dropping. I notice BHC was still going up. I bought 5,000 shares at 33.25 and exited at 33.75. 50 cent gain for $2,500. Small example, but the point is, I waited for my moment. + +There are many more tips but hopefully this list is helpful. + +Also, reading through this forum I see a constant stream of bad advice. I also see a never-ending army of trolls that disrupt any worthwhile post. I know many successful Day Traders that won’t post on this forum specifically because of the trolls. Personally, I don’t care...I’m sure they’ll pop up here once again, as always. Just know that they will get ignored unless they ask a legitimate question. + +Good luck! + +EDIT: I’ve gotten so many chat requests that Reddit won’t let me respond to them all. So if I haven’t responded to you, either send me a direct message or wait a bit and I’ll hit you back when they open it up again. +Santa Claus provided well-behaved children with goods without simultainously injecting liquidity into the economy doesn't that create deflation because now the goods/currency ratio is higher? +We can't let these legendary affiliate scammers get away with what they did, and we have to show them all that we are the internet, and that we never forgive, and never forget. + +Fuck these guys, and make sure you spread the word around about what they did, and continue to do with other Ponzi's like cloud mining. Go to their videos, and websites, and spread the warning. + +These people don't get to just conveniently forget what has happened, and expect the rest of us to just forget about it too! Fuck them, and hopefully some more serious actions get taken against them for what they are responsible for, and please do your research before getting involved with any of these shysters too people. + +You have a responsibility to protect yourself and your friends as well, and you are not exempt of all blame here either for falling for this shit if you did, so wake the fuck up! + +*** + +**Edit** + +Since this post blew up, and made its way on over to the /r/All sub-Reddit and most of them don't understand what is going on, I decided to make an edit with a video that pretty much sums up all of the bad actors and more mentioned in this post, so if you want a backstory, just watch this video from /u/dougpolkpoker for a better understanding: https://youtu.be/upPmNzcqFkU +My wife (38) had a stroke that left her with no motor function. She will require care for the rest of her life. We have two little girls. 11 and 8. I need advice on how to protect the estate if anything were to happen to me. I don't want her ongoing care to drain the estate if I'm gone. I also need to set up protection for our kids. I have so many questions about long term disability, social security, etc. I'm overwhelmed and don't know where to begin. + +Edit #1 I am meeting with a social worker this afternoon. UPDATE: Social worker was amazing and she says the kids are doing very well and to keep doing what I'm doing. The kids like her and I'll continue to have her check in on them. + +Edit #2 My wife has a school loan. Can I get this absolved? + +Edit #3 My wife is a RN making $65k/year. I've contacted her manager about her last paycheck and cashing out her PTO. + +Edit #4 WOW amazing response. As you can imagine, I have a lot going on right now. I plan to read through these comments this evening. + +Edit #5 Well, I've had even less time than expected to read everything. I've been able to skim through and I'm feeling like I have a direction now and a lot of good information to reference along the way. +Everyone talks about the learning curve and paying tuition to the market. If you are consistently profitable now, what changed - what got you over that hump? + +Was it just screen time? A strategy? A setup? A mindset shift? Etc. +Hey everyone! I recently read a great book on Warren Buffett called Buffettology. The book lays out a whole set of criteria that Buffett looks for when buying stocks so I thought… alright, let’s see if we can grade all the stocks! Here, in this post, are the results. + +# The Rules + +First, the rules. Each rule below receives a point for a pass, and no points for a fail, much like the Piotroski Score. The points were gathered from insights in Buffettology (I’d recommend a read if you haven’t already). + +* Rule 1 - Consistent Earnings (5yr / TTM growth > 0%) +* Rule 2 - Good debt coverage (can pay down debt in <3yr) +* Rule 3 - High Return on Equity (>15% average over 5yr) +* Rule 4 - High Return on Invested Capital (>12% average over 5yr) +* Rule 5 - FCF Generation (TTM FCF > $0) +* Rule 6 - Buying Back Shares? (Share count today < share count 5yr ago) +* Rule 7 - IRR greater than Long-Term Treasury (initial rate of return > 1.1%) +* Rule 8 - ERR greater than 12% (expected rate of return > 12% - calculated using analyst growth estimates) + +Now, the data. Like always it’s in a Google sheet. I have ranked the stocks from 8 on down. If you’re interested in a particular stock, search for it within the document. + +# The Data + +The data: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GLuUXKGBg7Rq0LgkdVPcybHKnsEl44eQ1cadtz84oZ0/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GLuUXKGBg7Rq0LgkdVPcybHKnsEl44eQ1cadtz84oZ0/edit#gid=0) + +# Feedback + +Got a rule you think should be in there, or something confusing about the score? Let me know. I make quirky things like this quite frequently for my YouTube channel (won’t link to avoid breaking any rules), and would love to take some feedback on continue iterating on this Warren Buffett checklist. +I am trying to raise awareness of this awesome stock, so if you like the dd I'd appreciate you upvote it on r/trakstocks where there is a much higher viewership [(1) Release the Kraken - Autonomous Vehicles, AI, Battery & Sensor Tech, RaaS and clean energy play : trakstocks (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/trakstocks/comments/lm102y/release_the_kraken_autonomous_vehicles_ai_battery/?sort=new) + + + +https://preview.redd.it/0h5hz9x533i61.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d312c3e84434238ab87870d221446716116646b + +Kraken Robotics + +Ticker: **KRKNF** US OTC/**PNG** Candian exchange (Stocktwits- PNG.CA) + +This is my research on Kraken Robotics. This company should see strong near-term price increases and I expect at least **8-12x** growth in the next 24 months. As of this writing the share price is sitting at **$0.50**. + +Before you read any further, I want you to understand what I look for in an investment; I invest in companies that are undervalued, possess world changing technology and have a large potential catalyst, be it financial changes, a market inflection point, buy out or pending regulatory approval. For it to make sense to me, the company must provide me with a large near-term upside and continued long-term growth. Basically, I am looking for penny stocks that should not be. Kraken fits all these requirements for me and is just starting to pick up speed in the industry. I will continue to update this, but I feel that it will be moving quickly so I would like to get this in front of everyone’s eyes ahead of time. I am not a financial advisor, I am a mom and a professional fire officer, do your own DD. + +My last DD here was for MVIS which was under $7 and less than a month later is at $20 – Penny Queen + +**About** Kraken Robotics is a 6-year-old robotics company specializing in autonomous vehicles, high-end, software-centric sensors, subsea batteries, and thrusters for military and commercial customers. They are now providing AI assisted RaaS (Robots as a service) and they are transitioning their business model to focus on recurring revenue from subsea data acquisition and data analytics. + +Their key areas of innovation are **autonomous vehicles**, **battery and sensor technology**, **AI data analytics and robotics as a service** (RaaS) + +Kraken is an up-and-coming player that has gone from a workforce of 20 to over 150 in the past couple of years as they have been acquiring companies and their technology while expanding their operations. They are a growing presence in the 10-billion-dollar underwater vehicle market, ranked by [Deloitte](https://www.thetelegram.com/business/local-business/kraken-robotics-leads-east-coast-tech-companies-on-canadas-fastest-growing-list-521886/) as the fastest growing tech company on the East coast (Canada). + +**Financials -** Kraken’s financial will change drastically in mid-April when they release their 2020 Q4 which will show a 40 million dollar contract they received. This contract alone is equal to half their market cap. + +Their current revenue stream supports a **$1 price point**, with a $6 price point factoring in unrecognized contracts, continued sector growth with similar contract capturing. I see $1 in the next 6 weeks and $3 by end of year. + +**Market cap of 86.33M** 165.01M outstanding shares and an extremely low float of only 112.29M – insider ownership sits right around 30%. Con- there is no real institutional ownership. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRKNF?p=KRKNF&guccounter=1) + +\*\*Typical volume for Kraken has been about 178k a day, the recent contract news has pushed this to **1.3m today**, telling me it is ready to move on up. The lack of attention this company has received is a major reason for its low price point. + +Kraken raised 10m in October 2020 to expand its robotics as a service business, on leasehold improvements, equipment, parts and inventory and possible future acquisitions. + +[Q3 Fiscal 2020](https://krakenrobotics.com/themencode-pdf-viewer/?file=https://krakenrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Kraken-Q3-2020-Financial-Statements.pdf) + +[Management Discussion and Analysis Q3](https://krakenrobotics.com/themencode-pdf-viewer/?file=https://krakenrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Kraken-MDA-Q3-2020.pdf) + +**Products -** + +**Autonomous Vehicles** + +· AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles) + +· USV (unmanned surface vehicles) + +· Towfish (Towed underwater vehicle) + +· ROV (remotely operated vehicle) + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/n1i3kdb733i61.jpg?width=747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=575b54811f7e01e56bf51bffa9143062527e2068 + +**Katfish subsea pressure neutral batteries** + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/bj3fr8bd33i61.jpg?width=491&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d320adbac84d71d4b2984f4ae4c727e9d881901 + +**Software-Centric Sensors –** These innovative sensors provide ultra-high-resolution imagery of the sea floor, think of it as GoogleMaps – water edition. + +· **SaS Sonar**\-synthetic aperture sonar provides 15x high image resolution than conventional side scanning sonar, with larger coverage area. + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/xhexsxi833i61.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce83bbfef97b51056c7f33878e4e5df56d62a4da + +**· Seavision** – 1st ever full color 3-D underwater laser with real-time processing, live video streams and + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/fhkqai2a33i61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=64ec67da626148885aa1ca4221d69abf98f7104d + +**Rim Mounted Thrusters** + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/14cb9f2b33i61.jpg?width=439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1351abf269c40e067245e6854e4787cc776fc2a6 + + + + + + + +**Market and Application –** Representatives of Kraken Robotics, the underwater vehicle market could be worth $10 billion annually by 2025. + +The military market encompasses naval mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. They believe this could be a US$4 billion market by 2025. + +The commercial market includes far more, cable & pipeline surveys, subsea mapping, oil rig and offshore wind and wave energy asset inspection, maintenance repair and environmental monitoring. They believe this could be a US$6 billion market by 2025. + +**Applications -**Their IP and sensor technology are also applicable to some space exploration and potentially automotive sensor applications. + +**Major Catalysts** + +· **Q4** – Their Q4 financials will be a gamechanger, expected in mid-April, should show the first payments from the Danish contract. + +· **Gaining traction** in military defense – They recently secured a large mine hunting contract with the Danish military for $40 million (nearly their market cap), beating out major players in the industry (Thales, Northrup Grumman and Raytheon) in the process. They have also secured contracts with Poland and the US, which are widely considered a foot in the door for larger NATO contracts. [(1) Kraken Robotics - #StoryToTell - OSC Video Series - Episode 1 - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1XtAd_YVms) +I have been reading this subreddit and posting in here for a while. However, I have become more active recently and received a few requests to flesh out one of my previous comments and turn it into a post. + +For context: I am in my early 20s and currently earn more than $2.5 million in taxable income every year. However, my actual net worth (low to mid 8 digits) increases annually by a number far higher than this if you factor in my unrealized (and untaxed) capital gains. I grew up in a very fortunate family background to a father that has considerably more money than I do (even today). Thus, my windfall gave me significantly more independence and perspective but it did not change my life circumstances. Just to be absolutely clear: none of my current net worth was inherited or given to me by anyone. However, it’s obvious that I would not have the knowledge or the opportunity to create this wealth without my parents. I was very lucky in many ways. + +Here are some of the most important lessons I’ve learned through my journey so far: + +* **Capital dominates relationships.** + * Many social situations are dictated by which person has more money. It’s our sad reality. + * Furthermore, there are many “good” people that will still treat you differently just because they know you have money. I think this is simply human nature. However, these people, while perhaps genuinely virtuous, will still subconsciously view you as a resource to be used. For this reason, it is extremely difficult to form relationships with people that have considerably different life circumstances (even someone making 500k a year lives a very different life from someone making 5 million a year). It is not a matter of elitism or classism. It is a matter of trust. + * In my limited experience (I’m sure it’s not reflective of the vast majority of people in this range), the high upper-middle class (salary $500k-$1.5 million) tends to have a less productive understanding of money and relationships. They have enough money to feel superior towards others (the true middle class) but not enough money to gain a deeper perspective on capital (explained later). PS: Please don’t debate this broad and arbitrary salary range with me. I have met people that will argue with others about whether they are low upper class or upper-middle class. That is a waste of time. +* **Success reveals true friends and helps you identify fake ones.** + * This is an important one. Whenever I achieve something I am proud of, I am very happy to share it with my friends and family. Their reactions to good news (both from me and from others) reveal a lot. The people that I trust the most and therefore are closest to are those that genuinely congratulate others and make them feel good about their accomplishments. There are many people that will either quickly change the subject after a brief “congrats” or even diminish the accomplishments of other people. While I still amicably interact with these people, I know that they do not actually care about my well-being at all. + * Conversely, I have made an active effort to demonstrate excitement for the accomplishments of my friends. I buy my friends drinks when they reach important life milestones and make sure they understand how unique and noteworthy their achievements are. I think those that sincerely celebrate other people’s accomplishments are the ones that are truly comfortable with their life circumstances. I actually think the causal relationship between these two things is bidirectional. Isn’t life easier when you can feel genuine happiness for others? Regardless, don’t let someone’s negative reaction to your good news make you feel bad. That’s their problem. +* **Money is a necessary but insufficient component of a meaningful life.** + * Money is one of those things where you want it when you don’t have it but stop caring about it when you do. Obviously I think about money to a certain extent (otherwise I wouldn’t be on this subreddit), but it is not something that guides my life purpose. In other words: I would be supremely disappointed if I never made another dollar for the rest of my life but I also wouldn’t find life satisfaction from making $1 billion. + * I think the point of diminishing returns for money is pretty early ($10-$15m). It’s easy to fall into the trap of materialism but buying things quickly becomes tiresome. Before the pandemic, 90% of my leisure spending was on travel, and my genuine passions/hobbies. My happiness when spending that ultimately inconsequential amount was much higher than my happiness when spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on “luxury” items. + * Finding a purpose beyond money is deeply personal. While everyone has a different answer, I believe everyone will be able to find a deeper purpose eventually. I have never met any “successful” person that views money as their end destination. +* **True meritocracy is a myth.** + * My road to financial success was paved with dumb luck. The outcome of my investments was lucky but even my ability to source these investment opportunities was a result of luck (being born into the right family). Even my father, who started with nothing and led a publicly-traded company as a CTO with a multi-billion dollar market cap, was only able to succeed through luck. Execution definitely plays a role in the direction of our lives but the intensity is largely determined by fortune. + * While I don’t think intelligence or work ethic is responsible for the majority of success in this world, I firmly believe it determines the direction of your life. For example, Jeff Bezos could only become the world’s richest man through luck. However, as a Princeton graduate working at DE Shaw, he was destined to live comfortably regardless of luck. In my opinion, one of the most important non-luck factors driving the direction of one’s life is their willingness to learn. Yes, the least intelligent people are oftentimes the ones that convince themselves that they already know everything (Dunning-Kruger effect). I know someone that will never admit when he does not know something. I will ask him a question and he will give me an obviously incorrect answer. If I try to dig in deeper, he will continue to provide even more incorrect (and easily verifiable) information. Unsurprisingly, he views himself as an extremely intelligent person (despite performing very poorly in university). Conversely, the smartest (and IMO most likely to be successful) people I know are those that actively seek to learn through reading, self-instruction, and listening to those that know better. If I have any insight into how someone can “become rich”, it’s absolutely in this bullet point. + * Accepting that my financial success says very little about my merit was difficult but it also radically changed my perspective on the world. Money does not reflect one’s worth, work ethic, or intelligence. Humbly remembering this has positively impacted my relationships and interactions with strangers. Furthermore, it has enlightened my thinking on charity. If the majority of my money is not rightfully earned then I am truthfully entitled to very little of it. This leads to my next point. +* **The difference between conservatism and selfishness is charity.** + * I am a proud fiscal conservative. Anyone that knows me at all knows that I have an almost obsessive fixation on lowering my annual tax burden. I hired a CPA in college just to answer questions about my (oftentimes ridiculous) plans to minimize my effective tax rate. However, one person challenged my ideology and made me realize the selfishness of my behavior. Fiscal conservatives like me claim that government inefficiency is a driving factor behind our desire to pay less taxes. However, maneuvering around taxes and hoarding money is simply greedy. Without charity, avoiding taxes is just done to keep more money for oneself. I think a certain level of greed is fine but I had previously deluded myself into believing my past behavior was an ideological stance and not purely selfish. I still do everything I can to minimize my tax burden. However, I have also donated more during this pandemic than I have ever saved in taxes (tbh it balances out post-deduction). +* **Intergenerational wealth is very dangerous for both individuals and society.** + * This is for all the parents that have been posting questions on this subreddit lately. Having attended private/boarding schools for most of my life, I can say without hesitation that intergenerational wealth is usually a net negative for all parties involved. I have seen heirs to multi-billion USD fortunes (in China where there is a 0% gift tax) waste their lives on nothing. How can you motivate yourself to do something without any real fear of discomfort? Also, please do not think this is a problem reserved for the ultra-wealthy. If anything, it is most dangerous within upper-middle-class families that can provide comfort for their children but not lifelong support. Unfortunately, I know many people from my university that came from upper middle class backgrounds that had many opportunities (no on-campus job requirements, private high schools, etc) but unfortunately squandered all of them due to their complacency. I do not know what the true solution to this problem is. However, I think giving children independence from their parent's financial success (at least while they are still developing their own path) is crucial. + * I won't make this post too political but I also firmly believe that intergenerational wealth serves very little purpose for society as a whole. + +Feel free to ask me anything related to what was discussed above. I will not answer questions asking for advice on making money. As I have explained above, I am not the right person to answer this question. If you want to replicate what I did, just make sure you’re arrogant and lucky! + + +Edit: Formatting +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/target-raises-minimum-wage-to-15-an-hour-months-before-its-deadline.html + +All of Target’s hourly employees will make at least $15 an hour starting July 5. + +Employees will also receive a one-time bonus of $200 to recognize their work during the coronavirus pandemic. + +The retailer had previously pledged to raise its minimum wage to $15 by the end of 2020. +Printing a bunch of new money the past couple of years is what caused this huge increase in inflation, right? How exactly does raising interest rates combat all this new printing of money? +I’m an entrepreneur with 100% ownership of my company, and I’m considering restructuring to employee-ownership to boost loyalty, performance, company growth, and ethics.[Employee ownership is linked to better company performance on average.](https://wol.iza.org/articles/does-employee-ownership-improve-performance/long) + +This got me thinking. How would things be different in a society where ALL companies were employee owned? Would the economy flourish better than ever, or would it just not work with certain types of companies? Are there hidden downfalls? Is there a name for this type of economy, and have any authors or researchers ever published anything good expanding on that idea? + +(Please don’t say socialism, I’m not talking about collective ownership, I’m talking about employee ownership only.) +[Link to article](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9857687/Biden-set-announce-new-eviction-moratorium.html#comments) + +Disclaimer- My post is being downvoted by many people. I understand the frustration, that is why I posted the article so people would be aware of what is happening. I am in no way agreeing with what the CDC is saying in any way, just want the info out there so landlords/tenants know exactly what is going on due to the news cycle moving so fast these days. Thank you. +Hello fine chaps, + +This is largely aimed to Youtubers and Online Bloggers. I have watched a couple of Youtubers online valuing company and I find it FRUSTRATING. I am new to the investing game, I don't have much money to invest in but I am just trying to learn on the side. + +It always seems that a lot of these people are only concerned with financials and NOTHING ELSE. Today, a fellow redditor asked for recommendations on value investing channels similar to a specific channel they have been watching and having watched one of the videos, I am incredibly disappointed. This particular channel (might be very successful in what they do) happened to have analysed the financial numbers, came up with some rigid metrics of their own liking and kept on making their own blanket assumptions about why they fared better or worse in a particular year or quarter. I mean you would find the answers to it if you went on to read CEO interviews, earnings call, 10-K statements, news articles etc? + +I find arbitrary guidelines to investing such as low P/E, low debt to equity or 1.0 current ratio, a bit meaningless without context. It seems no one is interested in talking about how the company is doing, what do they make, what's their 5 year strategy, how good are they at generating sales etc. No narratives or story telling when it comes to valuation. + +I get that financial fundamentals underpin the whole philosophy of value investing. However, there seems to be a complete absence of abstract thinking behind those numbers. +While it's great that people are getting involved and earning money, it's starting to get annoying seeing these posts everyday. They take away from the substance of this great community. I believe a weekly or so megathread, similar to what other channels do, would better serve this channel & community. +Hello all...I am a 26 year old currently working for a state agency making roughly 50k a year. As the title says, my dad just passed away and left me, the only person on the will, with $250k and our 5 bedroom home in the north east area (property taxes are out of control). Now that i crawled out from under my blankets and stopped hysterically crying for the past month, I dont even know where to begin with all of this. I am already maxing out my 403b roth account and I'm fully paid off with my car and college. I feel like $250k sitting in a savings account is a waste. What should i do first? How do i maximize this opportunity. My dad worked too hard to set me up, for me to waste this. side note: using a throw away account so no one knows who i am. +In April 2013, The Consumerist awarded EA the title of Worst Company in America for the second year in a row. Just a friendly reminder to ignore the mobs after the recent backslash experienced by EA due to Battlefront 2. Microtransactions are a very profitable business model and will likely continue to be in the future. +I have an AirBnB vacation home in the GA Mountains, bought in 2020 and it was occupied roughly 60% of days up until last month. Bookings have absolutely fallen off a cliff and I’m wondering if anyone else is experiencing this? Had 4 nights in June an nothing past July 4th on the books. +I can’t imagine having such a hugely successful market in India where a lot of parents struggle to even pay for school. Yes I know that the indian middle class now has more of a disposable income now, but curious as this is a niche market and they were only founded in 2011. +Some background. We bought our house in the tail end of 2019. Got a variable rate with 20 basis point discount. When costing everything out we stress tested ourselves at 6% and everything looked good. Then in Feb of 2020 we found out we were having twins. We made it through with family help and wfh till September of last year when we had no other option but to put the kids in daycare. It started at over $3k a month, we're in Ontario, but manageable because mortgage was still low as was everything else and we had savings outside of our investments to rely. + +Now its July 2022 and our savings are depleting fast and based on our projections by the next rate hike we'll be in the negatives. I switched our mortgage to another variable rate with an 80 point discount. Even with the penalty, we come out ahead. Child care is a bit lower but we're looking at $2k per month until they're 5. So, we have to dip into our TFSA to cover the next year for childcare. Don't know what we'll do past that as the kids have to be in daycare till their 5. + +It fills me with crazy anxiety as I wanted to be able have money to invest more while the markets are at a discount but instead we're selling at the bottom, close to the bottom. + +Hope everyone else is doing good. How do you all cope? +4 years ago today I was sitting in the Atlanta airport and getting more and more annoyed that the FIRE community was being overtaken by the leanFIRE way of thinking. + +So I created a new subreddit called fatFIRE to be a place where people who were interested in FIRE, but on a higher standard of living, could come together and discuss issues without the noise of “just cut your expenses down to the bone and buy vanguard index funds” parroted endlessly. + +We will always be a smaller community (because that’s how wealth works) but seeing 100k subscribers is amazing! I’m so gratified to see real in depth discussions happening every day. + +Happy cake day everyone! + +PS my original account u/tamo42 got banned from Reddit for unrelated stuff, and that’s probably the best thing that could have happened for fatFIRE. The mods have done a great job at fostering community since then. +Doesn't matter where you go, I'm not going to suggest any brokers. However, there are a number of brokers you can find who didn't stop or limit trading on stocks. Having people post gains on the RH app gives new users a reason to give money to those scum thinking its the preferred app. When they gain new members and you own a stock like GME at a good broker it still fucks you in the end when they limit their clients ability to buy. Allowing RH posts is a negative for everyone, they can manipulate the market more and more the larger they get while knowing full well the SEC won't do a thing. I wasn't in on GME but it's a slippery slope. +Hey. I’ve noticed the love for SCHD is really strong in the subreddit. I was just curious how SCHD is any different than VUG or QQQ. I understand SCHD has different holdings, but why else is this etf so loved? Is it the yield mainly? Will this etf have a share price of $300-$400 5 years down the road similar to QQQ and VUG? And why am I just now hearing about SCHD. I feel like it wasn’t really talked about back in 2017,2018, or 2019. Every time someone mentioned an etf to me back then it was always QQQ. +The back and spine are the most vulnerable part of the body in terms of pain, especially as one grows older. Stem cell spinal cord treatment is now the new thing in the field of regenerative medicine. According to studies, adult stem cells are effective in relieving back and spine pain caused by degenerative disc disease. This treatment is particularly helpful because the worn out and torn discs related to aging are incapable of healing themselves. This is because of the limited blood supply in the spine’s discs. But with the help of stem cells, with their healing powers, it is now easy to alleviate the pain and other symptoms of spine and back problems. +The back and spine are the most vulnerable part of the body in terms of pain, especially as one grows older. Stem cell spinal cord treatment is now the new thing in the field of regenerative medicine. According to studies, adult stem cells are effective in relieving back and spine pain caused by degenerative disc disease. This treatment is particularly helpful because the worn out and torn discs related to aging are incapable of healing themselves. This is because of the limited blood supply in the spine’s discs. But with the help of stem cells, with their healing powers, it is now easy to alleviate the pain and other symptoms of spine and back problems. +The back and spine are the most vulnerable part of the body in terms of pain, especially as one grows older. Stem cell spinal cord treatment is now the new thing in the field of regenerative medicine. According to studies, adult stem cells are effective in relieving back and spine pain caused by degenerative disc disease. This treatment is particularly helpful because the worn out and torn discs related to aging are incapable of healing themselves. This is because of the limited blood supply in the spine’s discs. But with the help of stem cells, with their healing powers, it is now easy to alleviate the pain and other symptoms of spine and back problems. +Now that I have finally gotten to a point in life where I’ve made it I wanted to get this off my chest because it’s an expression that did more damage than good and continues to annoy me. + +This expression gets thrown around like gospel every time someone asks a question about affordability, whether a car, a boat or a house or what have you. + +The reality is that I have always asked what things cost because I like to be informed. When I bought my first house I knew I could afford it. I still wanted to know what my expenses would be, so I asked the sellers to provide utilities bills and the insurance premium etc. to get a true sense for the cost. When I bought an expensive sports car I asked around on forums about the cost of maintenance, ownership, insurance and so on, and every single time I got answers that seemed written to discourage a purchase, including the “if you have to ask you can’t afford it”. + +Now, some 12 years later in life I can look back at all this with more knowledge. The knowledge that people consistently give crappy answers to questions pertaining to affordability. I was told I shouldn’t buy the house because I was asking about costs associated with keeping it maintained. I was told an exotic car was out of my reach because I was asking these questions. + +Now I know for a fact that this expression is a bunch of BS. Fuck you guys who spew this crap. I still ask about the cost of things no matter how much money I have. It’s ALWAYS relevant when buying something fairly expensive. There’s a lot of jealousy and people like to tell other people that they can’t afford something because it makes the experience more unique to themselves and they don’t want to acknowledge that there may be more people than they think out there who can have nice things. Some idiots quote $5M NW to buy a $100K car. If you listen to knuckleheads like this you could die before you ever realize your dreams. + +So as a word of encouragement for those of you who are young and working your way up... the next time you hear this, ignore it and do your own research. Determine your own affordability based on accurate data. Chances are you can afford it just fine. +It's been about 12 years that I'm a client and I keep telling myself, oh maybe next year they will release a good NATIVE mobile app. + +Now it's 2021 and we are still forced to use a web wrapped non-native mobile app that is slow and unresponsive. + +Anyone else frustrated about this? + +As a digital products designer, I find it incredibly disturbing that that a broker like them wouldn't invest heavily in native app development (like everyone else is doing). + +I hope there are some Questrade employees in this sub that can chime in to lend some insight. +Let me preface this post with a very clear statement: I'm not the gatekeeper of theta gang, nor are my opinions infallible and perfect. The aim here is to define what *I* consider to be theta gang strategies. + +Why? Because I keep seeing more and more posts that are doing things which *for me* do not belong under the theta gang umbrella. With a large influx of new users recently due to the whole GME thing, I am worried that some of these posts can be misinterpreted as strategies which are safe yet bring outstanding returns. + +Ok, so what is a theta strategy? IMO, these are strategies which primarily rely on time decay of short option positions to bring profits. As an important part of the definition I would consider that these strategies have to be relatively safe. Two most common theta strategies are selling Cash Secured Puts (CSP) and Covered Calls (CC). CSPs involve selling put options while having enough cash to get assigned the shares. CSPs as a theta gang strategy also means that you are absolutely willing to get assigned these shares and hold them while you sell CCs against them. CCs means that you are selling call options and have enough shares to cover these options in case you get assigned. Again, I only consider selling CCs as theta gang strategy if you're ok with the shares being called away. + +What is the "correct" way to sell CSPs (again IMO)? Before you sell a CSP as part of theta strategy, you should make sure that you are absolutely happy to hold the shares at that price, i.e., you actually believe the company is worth that much. If you get assigned, there should be no panic, it's just a normal part of theta gang. I sell CSPs on ZM, got assigned, I'm fine. Just sell a CC on them and move on with my day. If you feel anxious about your position, it's probably not theta gang. + +I want to specifically address put spreads which seem to have become popular recently. Are they theta gang? They *can be*, but in the way they have been used they are certainly not. I would consider a put spread as theta gang when you are somewhat worried that there might be a lot of fluctuation in the market in the short term so you're worried that the price of the underlying could suddenly drop significantly and you don't want to carry this paper loss while it's recovering. So you do a put spread, and if the price drops you get assigned while collecting some cash from the long put. You took less premium but you hedged against some bad thing happening, nothing wrong with that. I personally never use spreads because I hedge using other means, but like I said, this is a valid strategy. But the posts I've been seeing with 50% profit in a day on 250 contracts are most definitely *not* theta. Would you be fine getting assigned 25,000 shares of PLTR? If yes, I apologize. But OP claimed his/her whole account was about that size so this was definitely not a play to get assigned the shares. This was a play purely based on the move of the price of the underlying (i.e., delta). If the stock moved the other way, the loss would have been 100%, assuming they didn't close early. Not theta gang. With theta gang, you should never have to close early because your position is losing money. The only way I would close a losing position early is if new information about the company came about which made me rethink my thesis on this company. + +In short, there are many ways to make money gambling, I mean investing. It is however important IMO to be upfront about the risk/reward tradeoff involved, especially with so many new users who can be easily lured into trades they do not understand. I get the need to show off somewhat on an amazing trade you did, but there are other subs more appropriate for this sort of thing, if your trade isn't really in the spirit of this particular sub. Again, my personal opinions, not financial advice, you don't get to sue me because you lost money etc etc. +I just uncovered something that is bigger than I expected and things are fitting together better than I expected. + +With that being said, I am still writing this after being up all night. I can't put it down. As much as I'm doing this for you, ya filthy skunk apes, I'm doing it for me, too. + +I absolutely cannot rush this: I need to be certain. + +Thanks for your patience. +I updated my dividend chart today after buying a few shares this week and I’m making $100.06 a month if you split the payments evenly per month. I’ve been waiting for this milestone since I started 2 years ago when I was 18 and I really feel like I’m making progress now. I don’t have anyone to share this with but I’m really excited about it. +My mind went blank and the only thing that I could think about was losing everything I worked so hard for. I guessed on every question and I am not expecting a score that will earn me a scholarship. The question is if there is a better investment for my $50k, other than a graduate education? I need to do some soul searching to figure out if I just give it all away to an institution, or use it to better myself in another way. +>The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that resulted from government restrictions on activity versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the collapse using cellular phone records data on customer visits to more than 2.25 million individual businesses across 110 different industries. Comparing consumer behavior within the same commuting zones but across boundaries with different policy regimes suggests that legal shutdown orders account for only a modest share of the decline of economic activity (and that having county-level policy data is significantly more accurate than state-level data). **While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 of that.** Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly tied to the number of COVID deaths in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from larger/busier stores toward smaller/less busy ones in the same industry. States repealing their shutdown orders saw identically modest recoveries--symmetric going down and coming back. The shutdown orders did, however, have significantly reallocate consumer activity away from “nonessential” to “essential” businesses and from restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers. + +[https://www.nber.org/papers/w27432](https://www.nber.org/papers/w27432) +I'm sure some of you, like me, follow WSB and other places, if for nothing more than entertainment. It got me thinking about Gamestop today. I'm mildly annoyed with myself that I didn't do the legwork to understand it when I looked at it in 2019. Being the lazy person I am I saw eh, weak/negative earnings history, outdated business model, and didn't put any more effort into it. I typically don't pay any attention to short percentages. The concepts in play aren't especially hard to understand, and when at that time it was in the $2-5 range it was not unreasonable to think it had a lot more upside than downside, especially with the console cycle coming, even without the benefit of the short pressure. + +I'm not much into these kinda of asymmetric longshots with potentially huge upsides, because they tend to get into distributions, probabilities, long-tails, the weakness in black-scholes, all that jazz. I get it on a macro concept level but my math skills revolt and my brain ends up saying too hard, too easy for you to be wrong, leave it alone. Looking back when Gamestop was at $2 with the balance sheet strength it had left and the amount it was shorted at the time, this was a real wide-margin intelligent speculation. A speculation, but one with heaps of implied upside. Whether I could have held on throughout the unknowns of the pandemic, I don't know. And if congress hadn't acted or the fed acted differently, who knows. The outcome could have been very different. + +But now is a very different story. The stock isn't $2 anymore, it's $100 or $200, depending which minute of the day your ticker updates. The proposition has changed, not just for the next speculator looking to buy in, but every earlier speculator who already took a position. + +So what's a person to do who did take a flyer and gamble on it, or recognized the opportunity early and levied an intelligent speculation? How do you decide when it's time to cash your golden ticket and call your accountant. This is a classic prisoner's dilemma. Assuming the float reported is still accurate, and there is more than 100% of the outstanding shares sold short, then naked short selling has occurred and the short positions are really in the ditch. Last report I read, shorts borrowed several billion dollars to meet margin requirements and pray the GME holders flinch soon. + +Logically there has to be a ceiling, some price at which the last dollar is be extracted from the richest short seller, after which their lender of last resort has refused, and the bankruptcy's begin. Price appreciation beyond this is simply the greater fool chasing a story. I don't think there's a way to determine this empirically, since even if you could get all the necessary numbers and guarantee they were accurate, and you could nail down appropriate probabilities and the accompanying profit margins from each scenario, this involves not only a lot of human psychology but a good deal of politics, propaganda, lawyerly wrangling and the potential for backroom dealings. Not exactly the stuff of certainty or traditional value investing, but fascinating (to me, at least) as a spectator. This is a prisoner's dilemma. + +Every person who now owns GME long is a prisoner, and every short seller is a prison guard. As long as the prisoners stick together, up to the limit of bankrupting the collective short sellers the squeeze should continue and increase the collective payout. But as soon as the guards are able to flip a big enough holder or enough small holders to knock over that first domino, the formula tips and the second domino caves in, and so on down the line. This is the basis of the theory Malcolm Gladwell outlined in The Tipping Point. So each holder has to consider his or her own selfish interest of cashing out now before that occurs, versus the risk/reward of betting that the group isn't going to tip yet and staying in for a greater amount of price pressure upward, hoping they aren't left to catch a falling knife later. + +When is it going to tip, at what price, and how much yoyo action might occur in the meantime, before the final short is settled. I wouldn't even pretend to try and model this. That's Nassim Taleb territory, higher probability mathematics. I'd be fascinated to read about it, but not my bag. + +It did get me thinking about options. Is there an opportunity to buy a put option cheaply right now, which might possibly be priced very improperly at this moment. I don't know if one month is far enough out, but things seem to be moving reasonably fast now, so perhaps the dust is settled by then. If you could spend cheaply enough to buy a put option to sell at say $50 a month from now would that constitute a intelligent asymmetrical bet? At some point the shorts will either be liquidated or cover, the "ryan cohen" die-hard believers may stay for the turn around story, but the price pressure is off and all the gamblers start heading for the exits so they can participate in the next gamble. The prisoner's dilemma domino's will start falling. Even if the price eventually settled higher, the downward swing might very well spike down well below $50, or less, during this time. + +Looking at cnbc's put options for Feb and March the answer for me was no. Prices look too high for comfort, a lot of people smarter than me have probably already considered this and driven the price up, perhaps as hedges or speculations in the same vein as outlined above. I don't have the skill to figure out at $7 if a $40 PUT option one month out is an intelligent speculation to pick up, so for me it would still just be gambling. If that same put was 75 cents, I could accept it's likely at least a smart speculation, and if not it's cheap enough to take a flyer on. At $6 to $7 I can't. Long tails and options are a fascinating world. Shame I didn't pay more attention in math class. + +Curious who else has been ruminating on this, if you have any other perspectives. +&#x200B; + +# 0. Preface + +I am not a financial advisor. I do not provide financial advice. Many thoughts here are my opinion, and others can be speculative. + +I'm personally happy to see that there is a shift from GME DD to macro-economics DD. Because it provides a much wider insight into how the market is behaving, and how GME would **NOT** be the cause of a market crash. Everything has been a pressure cooker over the past decade, ready to burst, and the new DD provides insight on when things might go down. + +The new DD also diverges from the expectations of things to shoot up in price every week, where everyone is watching T+21/T+35/Net Capital cycles. It gives a general "MOASS will most likely occur when everything falls due to liquidation of defaulting Banks / Hedge Funds / Financial Institutions". + +It gives me peace of mind, because I do not watch for specific dates around GME to cause the surge. I watch the economy at the macro scale to understand when things could blow. + +**And to any skeptics - yes, it is possible that GME could never blow up. Do I think it will blow up? Sure I do. But I encourage YOU to read this post, disregarding GME, and to instead understand what is going on with the economy on the macro scale.** + +**Even if the GME play is wrong in your eyes, it is good to understand how the economy could crash harder than it did in 2008. I don't care if you don't believe in GME. I care about you, and don't want YOU to be hurt.** + +[Me IRL - Maybe - Sometime](https://preview.redd.it/pscahu4lxk671.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=2e5ee31eaef0413023a8cc4be07087210081554c) + +# 1. Before We Begin: An Overview of Repo And Reverse Repo + +Repo and Reverse Repo might be a bit confusing. You probably saw on this subreddit or in news that the reverse repo market has been blowing up, and it's a bit concerning. + +It's not too complicated if you just imagine it between two entities: the Federal Reserve and Banks. + +For both Repo and Reverse Repo, it is an agreement between two parties for one of them to sell some security for a price, and they agree to buy that security back at a later date at a higher price based on some interest rate (usually). This is called a "Repurchase Agreement", where "Repo" is a standard "Repurchase Agreement" and the "Reverse Repo" is a "Reverse Repurchase Agreement", the inverse of a "Repo". + +The length of these Repurchase Agreements can be various lengths. Such as overnight, one month, three month, etc.. But what we're seeing is **short-term** **overnight Reverse Repos**. The parties swap, and then the next trading day they swap back. **It is not a permanent extraction of the underlying security. It is an overnight swap. A permanent extraction comes from Quantitative Easing or Quantitative Tightening, both of which I will discuss later.** + +* **Repo (Repurchase Agreement)** \- This is where the bank swaps collateral (such as US Treasuries) for cash. This is used when the banks have too much collateral and not enough cash, or when the banks want to generate profit off of giving loans to other parties in the repo market. +* **Reverse Repo (Reverse Repurchase Agreement)** \- This is where the bank swaps cash (liquidity) for collateral (such as US Treasuries). This is used when the banks have too much cash (liquidity) and not enough collateral. The main reason behind this behavior is to pump balance sheets for the night. + +Below is a diagram I made which might make this more clear. It is between the Fed (left) and Banks (right): + +**Edit: I have a typo here. QT and QE should be flipped in the diagram. QT is permanent extraction of liquidity. QE is permanent extraction of collateral.** + +[Repo and QT Versus Reverse Repo and QE](https://preview.redd.it/ukum83cf2k671.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=99d4c612df82013aed06ff2b22621500a80071cf) + +&#x200B; + +# 2. Quantitative Easing Can-Kick of 2008, Slowly Draining Collateral From The Market + +Note: If you want an overview of what led to the 2008 crash, check out [my previous post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/) which has a summary of the documentary "Inside Job (2010)". It also describes where we're probably headed based on SLR, the DTC, ICC, OCC, NSCC rules, and mortgage default protections expiring June 30th, 2021. + +Zoom back in time to 2008. The economy took a massive dump due to Wall Street's abuse of derivatives and leverage. They created a bunch of toxic CDOs mostly consisting of [subprime Mortgages](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/subprimeloan.asp) to create an economic apocalyptic scenario around Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Everything was overleveraged and was a massive balloon of bets based on the performance of the MBS's. + +Currently, there's evidence of Wall Street doing the same abuse of toxic CDO's but this time with Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS). \[See above linked post for this detail\] + +The economy was hurting pretty bad from the 2008 crash, and it was going to continue going into a complete death spiral until the Federal Reserve (Fed) introduced Quantitative Easing (QE): + +>The Fed announced QE1 on November 25, 2008. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced an aggressive attack on the financial crisis of 2008. **The Fed began buying $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $100 billion in other debt**. QE supported the housing market that the subprime mortgage crisis had devastated. - [Source](https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-qe1-3305530) + +If you're still scratching your head on what QE is, here's the Wikipedia overview definition, as well as (hopefully) a more simplified definition. + +[Quantitative Easing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing) (QE) - is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases at scale government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity. + +* This is what the Fed will do to extract collateral (including US Treasuries) from the economy in order to push in liquidity. The Fed started doing this in 2008 to extract toxic collateral from the market and encourage economic growth because it allowed more cash flow in the economy. +* This pulls out collateral from the economy, and pushes cash (liquidity) in. +* **It was a ticking timebomb ever since it started, because it extracts collateral from the market, slowly creating a collateral shortage issue.** + +Check out the effects of QE on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI): + +[DJI Before And After Quantitative Easing Begins](https://preview.redd.it/cktjwttu8k671.png?width=1528&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e23f2e54e6204d8c56323d7e6bc8772c1a02535) + +It was helping the economy reverse the death spiral, and it has been pumping the economy ever since the introduction of QE. The problem is, of course, that collateral would continue to be sucked out of the market through the mechanics of QE. + +**And QE can't continue forever**, because collateral is a fundamental part of the repo market which allows cash to flow in the economy. When you don't have collateral, you can't post the collateral in the market for cash from banks, and thus the flow of cash basically shuts down. You cannot perform a normal repo transaction between a Bank / Hedge Fund / Financial Institution. + +The Fed tried to stop QE after a while. Instead of pulling collateral out of the economy, they needed to try to push collateral back into the economy. In order to stop QE, they tried what was, in essence, the "reverse" of QE called Quantitative Tightening (QT). + +[Quantitative Tightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_tightening) (QT) - (or quantitative hardening) is a contractionary monetary policy applied by a central bank to decrease the amount of liquidity within the economy. The policy is the **reverse of** **quantitative easing** **(QE)**, aimed to increase money supply in order to "stimulate" the economy. + +* This is what the Fed will do to extract liquidity from the economy in order to push in collateral. It is used to attempt to reverse the effects of QE, to try to regain balance in the economy. +* This pulls out cash (liquidity) from the economy, and pushes collateral in. +* **The Fed attempted QT in 2018, but it proved to have very bad consequences on the economy. So, they went back to QE in 2019, continuing to can-kick the effects of the 2008 crash.** + +This is a chart showing the Fed's "Total Assets", where collateral is an asset for the Fed. So when collateral was extracted from the economy through QE, it went onto their "Assets" side of their balance sheet. When collateral was pushed back into the economy through QT, it was extracted from their "Assets" side of their balance sheet. + +1. At the start of QE in 2008, there is a surge of assets due to the buying up of MBS's and treasuries. +2. Around 2018 the assets began to decline because the Fed attempted QT by pushing collateral back into the economy and sucking liquidity out. +3. Around September 2019 the assets began to increase again because the Fed went back to QE after realizing the negative effects it was having on the economy due to causing a liquidity shortage. + +So... what happened in September of 2019? **Why did QT fail after a decade of QE**? + +[https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/bst\_recenttrends.htm](https://preview.redd.it/x6pfomz2ck671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c667c5cc3dbc94de50944208f107aac1dd72d73) + +# + +# 3. Quantitative Easing Cannot Be Reversed. The Can-Kick Continues Until The Economy Crashes + +Despite pumping in a bunch of liquidity into the market through QE, the economy was **still lacking liquidity**. When the Fed started to reverse QE through QT, the liquidity in the market tightened and thus the negative effects on the economy began to surface in September of 2019. + +[https:\/\/blog.pimco.com\/en\/2019\/09\/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity](https://preview.redd.it/9sd32gdxdk671.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ee9d749419bc2b6c0a84682f6f9b0b886ceca93) + +**Less than a year after starting QT**, a liquidity crisis emerged on September 15th, 2019, when the repo rate spiked up severely. This was a clash of events surrounding the lower liquidity issue. + +>Banks’ “reporting” dates are known inflection points in the short-term funding markets and typically fall at the end of the month, quarter, and of course the year. **But periodically, the 15th of the month is also a pressure point**. Such was the case this past Monday when a short-term funding rate that had been hovering around 2.21% soared as high as 10%. +> +>The funding market succumbed to a trifecta of pressures: + +1. Payments on corporate taxes were due on 15 September, leading to high redemptions of more than $35 billion in money market funds. +2. Cash balances increased by an additional $83 billion in the U.S. Treasury general account, which reduces excess reserves and simultaneously acts to reduce the aggregate supply of overnight liquidity available in funding markets. +3. Dealers needed an additional $20 billion in funding to finance the settlement of recent scheduled U.S. Treasury issuance. + +>... +> +>... +> +>On September 15, **as so many institutions needed funding**, **repo rates climbed well above the fed funds upper-end target at the time of 2.25% to briefly touch 5%.** **The following day, cash repo markets traded as high as 10% for those looking to finance agency mortgage positions overnight**. **Later that morning, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York acknowledged the pressures and conducted its first Open Market Operation (OMO) in more than a decade to add reserves to the funding markets that were clearly in need of the liquidity**. Subsequently, after its meeting Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a cut in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) of 0.30% – five basis points more than its cut in the fed funds rate – providing some relief to the upper bound of money-market yields.  - [Source](https://blog.pimco.com/en/2019/09/repo-rate-spike-a-tail-of-low-liquidity) + +Due to the reduced liquidity from QT, because it sucks out liquidity and pushes in collateral, the markets hit a critical point where there was too much cash that was needed and not enough to supply those who needed the cash. There was huge amounts of strain on the economy. + +This was most likely due to continued large leverage + derivatives abuse stemming from what led to the 2000-2007 Housing Market Bubble. The Fed realized that QT could not continue because of the liquidity shortage that was arising. **They had to stop QT and continue QE in order to continue to pull out collateral and pump in liquidity. And thus, the collateral shortage time bomb continued ticking.** + +Below is the figure of when the repo rate shot up to \~10% within a day. This was awful, because it was much more expensive for loans to go out. The repo market would have shut down from nobody wanting to spend 10% on a repurchase agreement to get cash for the day. How would ANYONE get 10% return **overnight** to pay for these loans? The flow of cash was about to halt. + +[https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/econres\/notes\/feds-notes\/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.htm](https://preview.redd.it/86p3getwwj671.png?width=771&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a503c9055d655f80557da8bf46744c205f60011) + +# + +# 4. COVID Initiated A Liquidity Crisis In The Banks, Which Now Fights With The Collateral Shortage + +QE continued on until 2020, when suddenly, COVID came in. Nobody expected it. + +And boy, **oh boy**, did COVID wreak havoc on the economy and the financial world. While the Fed was slowly approaching a collateral crisis through QE, COVID exacerbated the issue due to the sudden impact it had on liquidity. COVID increased liquidity, and when you have a sudden surge of liquidity, you need to balance it with collateral. The economic balance was tipping as of March of 2020. + +This does not even take into account the effects of many people losing their jobs, being unable to pay rent/mortgages, and other issues that arose from COVID. Those all apply to another ticking time bomb: the CMBS issue, equivalent to the MBS bubble of 2000-2007, which I discussed in my other post. + +The COVID pandemic caused a surge of money being printed from stimulus packages in the US. When you print a bunch of money into the economy on a whim, you risk driving inflation of the currency itself. What does inflation encourage? Less spending from companies, due to the higher price. This leads to less loaning of cash in the repo market, and banks obtaining an ever-surplus of cash. + +COVID caused a sudden surge of trillions of dollars worth that the economy couldn't handle naturally. Compare the treasury balance versus the deposits over time, and the surge that occurred in 2020 in response to the pandemic. The COVID stimulus bills pumped in a **massive** amount of money into the economy at the risk of inflation. And we're already seeing the effects of inflation occur on the [supply chain](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-supply-shortages-economy-inventory-chips-lumber-cars-toilet-paper-2021-5): + +[https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/bst\_recenttrends.htm](https://preview.redd.it/amwahlvykk671.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e343c265451a1b2d6754a4d04971bb445e58f43) + +Stimulus checks were sent out to retail. Companies were bailed out. Unemployment increased, resulting in more unemployment benefits going out due to the relief bills. More money printed. More money deposited at banks. + +There was a ton of cash (liquidity) being pumped into the economy over the past year from March 2020 to June 2021. Because of this, due to inflation and an excess of cash, banks began to get a surplus of cash deposited. People had more cash. They didn't need to spend money on rent/mortages. Companies didn't want to spend more due to fears of inflation. So, bank deposits went up. + +**The main problem with this is that the cash deposited with the banks became a liability on their balance sheets. When you have a surplus of liabilities on your balance sheet, you need to 'balance' it out with assets, such as US Treasuries.** + +The banks were now in trouble because they had way, way too many deposits. They were at risk of defaulting due to their SLR requirements. Here is a figure showing how deposits (liabilities) of banks increased over time. It mushroomed during the COVID pandemic: + +[https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a5e165f7-a524-4b5b-9939-de689b6a1687](https://preview.redd.it/6dm07sa3oj671.png?width=891&format=png&auto=webp&s=9acce6ceb03841c64828198eefff21eb06b1e310) + +To combat this issue, the Fed decided to introduce a relief program for banks regarding SLR because of the massive increase of liquidity due to the uppercut that COVID created on the financial world. + +>The supplementary leverage ratio (**SLR**) is the US implementation of the Basel III Tier 1 leverage ratio, **with which banks calculate the amount of common equity capital they must hold relative to their total leverage exposure**. Large US banks must hold 3%. Top-tier bank holding companies must also hold an extra 2% buffer, for a total of 5%. The SLR, which does not distinguish between assets based on risk, is conceived as a backstop to risk-weighted capital requirements. - [Source](https://www.risk.net/definition/supplementary-leverage-ratio-slr) + +In more of a simplified summary, SLR is a requirement of total equity that a bank must hold compared to their total leverage exposure. If they are exposed to leverage, they need to hold enough capital for that position otherwise they are at risk of defaulting. In this case, they only need to hold a measly 3%-5%, dependent on how large of a bank they are. Just like in 2008 - these banks can have massive leverage and SLR is to "help protect the economy" from them abusing leverage. + +But hey, the Fed put in place some protections for the year to help these banks since they were obviously overleveraged to begin with. These protections expired on March 31st, 2021. + +[https:\/\/www.fool.com\/investing\/2021\/03\/29\/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr\/](https://preview.redd.it/14pa4yngtj671.png?width=1433&format=png&auto=webp&s=534726bcf83b0bf40ede7b196191d66c29094d6e) + +>**The Fed's relief program last year allowed banks to exclude U.S. Treasuries and central bank reserves from the SLR calculation**. The relief program was a response to the many non-banking institutions selling Treasuries to raise cash, and coincided with other measures, including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which resulted in even more Treasuries being sold into the market. - [Source](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/29/the-fed-is-ending-one-of-its-pandemic-relief-progr/) + +**Right after the expiration of the protection plans of SLR, the Reverse Repo market began to blow up because the banks had way too much liquidity and not enough treasuries on their balance sheets.** + +The argument that the banks were "parking their money at the Fed" was a reasonable explanation at first. Though, with 0% ROI from the RRP at the time, the banks would literally get no return on their investments. So for that argument, all of their other investments would have had to yield negative in order for RRP to be more enticing. Does this make sense to you that they'd use 0% RRP to be an 'investment'? + +The fact that the RRP began to ramp up and then explode after the SLR protections lifted makes this look like a collateral shortage issue. And of course, with QE occurring over the past decade, makes it more likely, because collateral was sucked out of the economy and onto the Fed's balance sheet over the years. + +**That was of course questionable on whether it was a liquidity or collateral issue, until, the RRP rate dropped negative in March of 2021, as well as in April of 2021.** + +&#x200B; + +# 5. Reverse Repo Rate Flips Negative; Warnings Of Collateral Shortage + +Think about it quite simply in a supply/demand factor and the reverse repo when the RRP rate dropped negative. + +You are a bank. You want to get Collateral from the Fed to balance your sheets. The Fed says they'll give you a small amount of interest for borrowing their collateral overnight. But now, imagine that the supply of collateral is too low and demand is too high. The Fed will no longer want to pay you for borrowing its collateral so it will shift the interest rate down. If demand really outweighs supply, then the Fed would then want cash from YOU in order for YOU to borrow the collateral. + +[https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-bonds-repo-explainer\/explainer-u-s-repo-market-flirts-with-negative-rates-as-fed-seeks-to-absorb-excess-cash-idUSKBN2C32AI](https://preview.redd.it/eysh9mx9ok671.png?width=961&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d9d1695922b01651eae06c6bcc2753ad0f5b789) + +This was just one of the warning signs that a collateral issue was arising. The RRP rates were already at 0%, so the only way for them to move was either up or down. An increase in treasury demand could shift it down, into the negatives, which it did. + +&#x200B; + +# 6. The Fed Is Fudging The Numbers And Hiding A Collateral Shortage + +The drop in RRP interest rates to the negative **came after** the Fed increased the total borrowing amount of counterparties in the RRP from $30 Billion to $80 Billion. + +[https:\/\/finadium.com\/fed-increases-rrp-limits-from-30-billion-to-80-billion-to-ensure-supply-at-near-0-rates\/](https://preview.redd.it/by2ftlpopk671.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=747f50e2fb63aabaedb6e9e947aa117f6c75f91b) + +Why did they do this? Think of it again as a supply versus demand issue. For simple math, imagine the Fed has 50 members. + +* At a limit of $30 Billion per member, that is a total of $30B \* 50 = $1.5 Trillion that can be borrowed. +* At a limit of $80 Billion per member, that is a total of $80B \* 50 = $4 Trillion that can be borrowed. + +What is this doing? Why did the Fed increase the limit? + +**It's artificially inflating the total "supply" of treasuries that can be borrowed by counterparties in the RRP. It is attempting to keep the interest rate positive because there is so much demand for collateral and not enough supply in the markets and on the Fed's balance sheet. The RRP was already at 0%, there was nowhere for it to go besides negative, which as you know implies a shortage of collateral and a red flag for the financial world.** + +Not only did they artificially inflate the total supply to combat the demand by increasing the total borrow amount, **the Fed decided to not affect the assets side of its balance sheet during these RRP transactions**. **This effectively leaves the supply of treasuries on the Fed's balance sheet the same.** This is another method to can-kick to avoid interest rates going negative and flashing a collateral issue. + +>When the Desk conducts RRP open market operations, it sells securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to eligible RRP counterparties, with an agreement to buy the assets back on the RRP’s specified maturity date. **This leaves the SOMA portfolio the same size**, as securities sold temporarily under repurchase agreements continue to be shown as assets held by the SOMA in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, but the transaction shifts some of the liabilities on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from deposits held by depository institutions (also known as bank reserves) to reverse repos while the trade is outstanding. - [Source](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq/rrp-faq-archive/rrp-faq-200715) + +We can see this visually from the Fed's balance sheet that they're not affecting their assets during the RRP. They're allowing counterparties to borrow treasuries **WITHOUT** affecting the supply - desperately trying to get away from the rising demand for treasuries and avoid treasury yields from snapping down (and likewise the price of treasuries up): + +[https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/bst\_recenttrends.htm](https://preview.redd.it/evxua80crk671.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a925b05e7a460b252457923ca97c730c511da6b) + +**On top of this, the Fed showed their hand ONCE AGAIN of fudging the numbers on June 16th when they bumped up the RRP rate to 0.05%. The short-term treasury yields briefly went BELOW the RRP interest amount of 0.05% on June 17th when the new RRP ROI was in effect.** + +**This is a BAD sign because now overnight RRP had a higher return than 2-month and 3-month treasury bonds.** + +**The Fed is fudging the numbers trying to hide the treasury bond shortage.** + +The Fed cannot keep this up. They're trying to keep the T-bill yield curve propped up despite the treasury shortage. They're not affecting their balance sheet, and they also artificially increased the amount of treasuries in their "supply" by increasing the counterparty borrow limit from $30 Billion to $80 Billion. + +[https:\/\/alhambrapartners.com\/2021\/06\/17\/the-fomc-accidentally-exposes-itself-reverse-repo-style\/](https://preview.redd.it/sp52qka5tj671.png?width=858&format=png&auto=webp&s=69d7ec8971035a7939f7bed116f7c923215019d6) + +[https:\/\/www.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/Pages\/TextView.aspx?data=yield](https://preview.redd.it/1f64o77tsk671.png?width=972&format=png&auto=webp&s=48e83c02895066c4e300c5a8adf3d3a065a6b016) + +The Fed is also planning on increasing interest rates. This starts to scare the economy, which is most likely why we're now seeing the dump of the stock market over the past few days and the dump leading into the week of June 21st. This is **bad for the markets** because it means it's going to cost more for the economy to function (e.g. what happened in 2019 when Repo Rates spiked to 10%). Companies have to spend more to hire, produce, etc. **It costs the economy more to function.** + +**The Fed is pinned between a collateral issue from QE sucking out collateral, and a liquidity issue and COVID pumping in too much liquidity for the banks to handle.** + +[https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/06\/16\/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-raises-inflation-expectations-sharply-and-makes-no-mention-of-taper.html](https://preview.redd.it/uhhhzguotk671.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&s=cab32cef615311320c6cf27461fa7fb18b0fc7af) + +[https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-57090421](https://preview.redd.it/p0v9ij2b0k671.png?width=1013&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf8f525bfc55e8f1287e921bbaaa408c5c27a253) + +# + +# 7. Quarter Ends Explode The Reverse Repo. The Next Quarter End Is June 30th, 2021. + +This is not a date to look forward to for GME potentially rising. This is a date of "Holy shit. **The RRP could explode to the point where treasury supply vs demand is unable to take it any more**". + +About 3-4 days prior to quarter ends, the RRP explodes up in the amount of collateral that is borrowed from the Fed. This is because of the underlying plumbing of the financial markets, identified in Section 3 above, causes additional strain on the financial markets. The banks need more collateral to prop up their balance sheets for the night of the quarter-ends. + +The RRP borrowed amount can shoot up almost **2-4x the current levels.** The amount of RRP at the moment is $747 Billion. **The RRP could explode 2-4x the amount it is at upon June 25th, 2021**. What if it's $1 Trillion by then due to the massive amount of collateral needed by the banks? More? + +**Can the Fed handle it?** + +**Can they still prop the yield curve up?** + +**Will the short-term treasuries dip below the RRP amount once more due to this shortage and flash red flags to the world of financial instability in the US?** + +[https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/Superstonk\/comments\/nylihz\/previous\_rrp\_behavior\_on\_quarter\_ends\_massive\/](https://preview.redd.it/63daa1s8gk671.png?width=1277&format=png&auto=webp&s=d04d4a6b577152d26d6f7ea6e0c31f05f7ce80dc) + +If the US Treasury yield curve snaps down from this instability and the Fed no longer able to prop up the yield curve, then it can drive treasury prices up. + +If /u/atobitt's "[Everything Short](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgucv2/the_everything_short/)" is true and they're actually shorting treasuries, then that can lead to banks defaulting due to the price of treasuries shooting up. When they default, they'll be forced to buy up all the treasuries that they've shorted into the market. + +**And it is very possible that they are shorting treasuries.** + +When performing RRP of 0%, the repo market was most likely shut down due to nobody needing cash loaned out. The banks only profitable move was to perform the RRP with the Fed and then **short** treasuries into the market, **rehypothecating** the treasuries to other parties. This would have also helped prop up the market by artificially increasing the supply of treasuries (collateral) in the market. + +If it's true, and they have truly been performing the "Everything Short", then it could initiate a Global Financial Crisis equivalent to The Great Depression. + +Do I want that to happen? **No**. But is there a chance? **Yes, there is**. + +Is GME going to squeeze? Is the DD just false hopium? I don't think it's just hopium. I believe in the DD. + +But some users might think otherwise and not believe in GME or the DD. Hello users outside of /r/superstonk! If you're reading this, check out the DD on the subreddit! + +Even if there's a **slight** chance of a GME squeeze in **your** eyes, and all of these signs are pointing to a market crash... + +[Why not give it a shot](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4nSHsbFe-o)? +In light of articles saying they had an '*eye on social media*', we made a pro-active step and contacted the **ASIC** in September 2020. No response was received other than a receipt of message, so we simply continued along our merry way. + +When we followed up a few months later, we were informed our offer of communication (including a Mods personal email and phone number) had been 'non actioned' and subsequently closed. + +Advice from the **ASIC** on the second call was that we should contact them again if we really needed to (including providing a specific group to call). Again, no news is good news. + +&#x200B; + +A little over a week ago, we were contacted by a person claiming to be representing **ASIC**. We have a verification process for whenever someone contacts the Mods claiming to be somebody. After their identity was confirmed, we were advised the purpose of the contact was a non specific meeting to see the lay of the land. + +The Mods conferred, it was decided that one Mod would happily attend via phone. Apparently no investigation is happening, this was a friendly chat and it was not recorded by **ASIC**. + +&#x200B; + +A few questions were asked, but just to clarify and maintain our transparency, we thought we'd answer them here too. + +The actual meet up was over the phone, only one mod was present. + +The questions below are listed from memory and subsequent Mod dialogue. + +&#x200B; + +**What do you get paid?** + +Nothing. + +Sweet fuck all to be precise, just doing it for the love and tears of spammers. A Quality shit-post now and then also does wonders for morale. + +Initially, One of the Mods did pay for a few things out of their own pocket (*The Koala and Banner, designers and base art aren't free, even if they got it for mates rates*). + +In lieu of this and to put out some funnies for the Autistic crowd to call their own, a shitty merch store was set up via RedBubble. Once that debt is paid, they are considering to shut the shop, unless another person starts trying to skim money by stealing the Koala. + +Mods have a rule you may or may not be aware of. We do not accept gifts, donations, payments, and any associated funny business. Sexual favours will not get you special treatment, just deep disappointment. Any time we are offered something, we suggest the user spend that money on a donation to charity instead. Someone shilling generally and offering Discounts and offers of 200 free accounts to **the entire sub** are fine, but mod only stuff is a no no. Though beers have been bought for mods (and others) at meetups and someone probably got a pizza once. + +We do not enter the competitions we allow to be run on the Sub. + +As a general guide, we avoid shilling our own stonks, in actual fact when a post pops up concerning a ticker a Mod is invested in, we often try to flag it in our mod chat and one of the other Mods makes the call on it. (keep/delete/re-flair etc...). Mods can still delete each others posts. + +Even if we dont mention a stonk to each other, there are still multiple mods. Trash and pump is still trash and pump. It will get deleted. If trash is being approved, questions will be asked by other mods. + +We occasionally gamble on shitty stocks we see shilled here, generally only to skulk away and lament our own foolishness. + +&#x200B; + +**How much time do you spend doing this?** + +&#x200B; + +Mods might spend anywhere between 3-12 hours a week moderating the sub. Cut up into 5-10 minute blocks. Yes people, you got your no effort post deleted while the mod was sitting down on the toilet. + +When there is a major problem or huge spikes in interest (BRNageddon/GME/Any fucking time Z1P goes up etc...) Mod's can spend up to double this amount sorting it out. + +This isn't always fun and can be pretty demanding, but its a reality of the role. Remember, there is a large volume you don't see via mod mail and other requests that come in. + +&#x200B; + +**Does every post get Pre-approved by a mod?** + +&#x200B; + +No way. This isn't our job. That's not how the internet works. + +We just don't have time to approve everything that people say, plus we don't want too. The sub would become an extension filter of the stuff Mod's wanted to see only. Think of all the shit you would not have been subjected to if this was the case, can you imagine a world where we deprived you of logging on to see what people were buying and ended up watching some dude drink his own jizz? Nah, that job goes to the mod who drew the short straw. Other mods still haven't seen that video. + +Also, that would mean we have to review everything immediately. News of something Mooning or crashing would be delayed spreading and no one could act while the approver had a look and furrowed their brow while pondering whether to say yes. What do we look like? A Commsec Options account? + +Plus, the reddit downvote function provides a small assistance to us. If someone is just pumping or spamming, the downvoters will prevent that clogging up everyone's feeds anyway until we get to it. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**How fast can you respond to a post?** + +&#x200B; + +Often within 1-2 hours, a mod has looked over things. Often it's much faster. We largely use Sort by New. Reddit does do strange stuff with sorting, but this usually means things get caught. + +We also have mod-mail, which provides alerts to Mods who have it set up right. Certain apps don't actually do this correctly, so it's not a surefire way to get an immediate alert to a mod, but it will get looked at. We also get reports, which are flagged to us when we look at the sub. + +The best and fastest way to contact a mod has and will always be tagging them on the post by their username. + +&#x200B; + +**How can you respond to people doing dodgy stuff?** + +&#x200B; + +As swiftly as possible. People just doing low quality memes and being a bit too enthusiastic so as to make us slightly suspicious simply get deleted. But if there appears to be any coordinated posts etc, we will often get modmails, chats or people @ us. If multiple posts with the same text appear, that is a dead giveaway. For bad behaviour, we might give people a warning flair, while banning the alts. If they misbehave again, they will go for a temporary or permanent ban. + +&#x200B; + +The more co-ordinated the event, the more aggressive we are. It's hard to prove pumping or co-ordination, so we tend to be careful about flat out banning. + +&#x200B; + +We have had an attempted pump when a discussion group off the subreddit went from hysterical enthusiasm for a stock (which is fine) to planning a pump. We stopped it before the pump was supposed to happen, partially to ensure no actual laws were broken, (i.e no market manipulation **ASIC**). + +The ringleader was banned, plus the people involved were, ranging from short bans for fellow travellers to longer ones for people who clearly knew what they were a part of when it went to the dark side. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you choose mods?** + +&#x200B; + +Basically through a process of being aware that we need a new mod because the load is too high and we start reviewing who appears to be acting in an adult way, or at least a childish way but appears to actually be an Adult inside. While we are welcoming to all, including morons, we don't want them to be mods. + +Every mod was looked over carefully before being offered the spot. Only one mod had offered their services before being chosen, but they were already on view as a possible. People who look like they might abuse the position are not chosen. + +Everyone, do not ask us to become a mod. Don't call us, we'll call you. + +&#x200B; + +**Does the Mod team agree on everything? Is** /u/The_lordofruin **the boss?** + +&#x200B; + +No and no. + +While a mod is very new, their access is not fully active. But as long as they don't misbehave, they have the same access as the others mods within a few weeks. Think of it like a probationary period. + +There is a single common chat channel that the mods use for 99% of their communication, though 1 on 1 does happen. Previously, there were other channels when there were far fewer mods. But these channels are rarely used now except for sending files and information back and forth that reddit doesn't handle well. + +We have a group email account separate to the sub, also shared spreadsheets and other bits and pieces to assist us with all thing modding. + +95% of descisions made by mods are unilateral. + +They see shit and they delete shit. If something looks like it needs an alert to everyone (like co-ordinated pumpers or a user not quite crossing the line, but still being a dick and likely a future problem), then the other mods are alerted. + +Over time, Different mods have fallen into different roles. One mod does a lot of ban post co-ordination, another does automod, another tends to do Commenting, Another does most of the flairs and another likes killing bots and sock puppets. + +Mixed in with this is their general activities, you would expect a group over time to evolve into these types of roles. + +&#x200B; + +Unlike how certain larger subreddits operate, we do not have an inner party and an outer party of mods. + +/u/The_lordofruin is a major poster and is sometimes requested as a particular "oh no...Mum/Dad is here." scary alert Mod. But that's largely a matter of history and that certain other mods do not like too much attention. As you would expect, the mods who have been around longer are afforded a level of respect both within the sub and the Mod circle. They have probably seen it before, they have had more time programming auto-mod, are more familiar with the sub etc etc... + +But the Elder Mods are not the bosses, the mods work together but aren't a monolithic unit and when we disagree on a certain course of action or direction, group consensus prevails. + +&#x200B; + +People who do not mod are likely not aware of it, but if you are a mod, Reddit allows scheduled posts. One mod can draft something, schedule the post to be released the next day. Another mod can then go in, edit and expand that post before it goes live. This means multiple mods are actually the Author, but it only goes under one user. + +Case in point, multiple Mods have read this post and either edited or approved it prior to it going live. + +&#x200B; + +**How do you keep the mods from misusing their power?** + +&#x200B; + +There is a mod log thats kept up, tracking all things done by the mods. + +In theory, a mod could misuse it, but if something is deleted then a user can use mod-mail or message another mod. The other mods would get an alert, then review the post in question. Eventually questions would get asked. Mods sometimes will say "I'm in XYZ, I'm too close. You guys decide if this is a reasonable post or if I'm too close and this is actually shit." + +&#x200B; + +As with any group, trust plays a role. The more time the current mod group spends refining their craft, the better we are at maintaining the culture here at r/ASX_Bets. + +&#x200B; + +In theory, certain mods can close the entire sub and say Fuck you all. However, they have their episode of '*going mad with power*' scheduled for next Full moon, not today. Right after they finished crying that their biggest holdings have not mooned despite 3 years being balls deep. \[That hurts you bastard- other mod editing this\] + +&#x200B; + +**Why is there lots of text in Greek? Is it some trick being used to hide messages and bypass the Automod?** + +&#x200B; + +**hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!** + +&#x200B; + +It's a long long story that actually needed explaining to **ASIC**. Yes, they really did ask this seriously. + +It's actually an '*in*' joke because some idiot took a random Greek article as evidence **BRN** was going to moon. This article was just a random article, but the joke developed that people will believe anything they read in Greek. + +It's still going on 6 months later, not the mooning, the Greek joke. If you have been here longer than 5 minutes, you will know we have other jokes too. You know, cause jokes are funny and shit, not fucking advice to be taken literally.... + +&#x200B; + +**Any questions for ASIC?** + +&#x200B; + +*Why are options on the ASX not quoted by market makers*? + +\- Since you can do this with professional trading systems and services easily, it looks like it creates a misbalance in the market between retail and institutions. This was actually requested by multiple mods. Apparently this question was not immediately answerable, but they have noted it. + +&#x200B; + +From here on, if you see an account claiming to be **ASIC** and they have the Flair "Official ASIC Account. For Real. Seriously." then that is them. + +&#x200B; + +**Summary:** + +At this point, we don't really have that much to tell anyone. + +We had left a joke in the FAQ and forgotten about it which mentioned Rockets equaling winning, which has been deleted upon request. Otherwise, they don't seem to have any issues with the ship we run. + +The Mod who attended did say that they wanted this to be the most respectable, least dodgy part of the ASX social media...Cuckold references, Body fluid consumption and general idiocy aside, I think we've done that. We also do Koala and charity stuff. + +So if you're just a plain old legit, real fucking idiot that belongs here, good work. If you're some asshole who wants to use this sub as victims of your scams, will you please fuck right off.... + +&#x200B; + +**TLDR:** Μας αρέσει το αστείο +Honestly, I'm hoping for any and all advice. Here's the situation... I'm 20, live with my parents. Both of them were disabled, so we were living off of government benefits, basically. My dad lost his leg November 2017 due to diabetes. Because of this, and what we think could have been dementia... we got really behind on all of our bills. My dad would tell my mom and I that he paid bills when, in fact, he didn't. + +He died a month ago. The last 2 or so months he started telling us that we were behind on bills. He really started stressing out the last month, after the bank told him our house was in foreclosure.. He had a heart attack one day, I think it was due to the stress of the bank. It was scary, he was in ICU for several days, but he made it through, and he ended up getting out of the hospital on a Tuesday.... That same Friday, I found him unconscious in his room.. He had 2 back to back heart attacks this time, and died 5 days later after being taken off of life support. + +He left my mom and I with a mess, and a lot of debt. He had no life insurance... Now, here is the rundown. + +As I said, our house is in foreclosure. Our monthly mortgage payments were only $150 somehow. We are behind several months. We can either take a gamble and have them adjust our monthly payments based on our current income, OR pay about $2500-$4500 upfront and keep our monthly payments the same. Both of these options scare me. Our monthly cost of living is around 1460. My mom is on disability, I work a full time job making $9 an hour. We obviously don't have the money to pay upfront, but the low mortgage cost would be so so so helpful, as I could hopefully drop to part time and go to college full time. I make about 1200 a month and my mom makes around 850, so I'm afraid that if we adjust the monthly payments, it's going to be closer to $500, which would pretty much screw me over and I definitely wouldn't be going to college anytime soon, just be stuck with minimum wage for a long time. + +On top of this, we have other debts. My mother is a few months behind on the car payments, AND we're behind on the taxes for the house! Taking out another mortgage isnt an option, as this IS the second mortgage! + +Sorry for the rambling, but I have absolutely no idea what I'm going to do. I just lost my dad and now we could lose the house. I just really need some kind of financial advice here, I know I'm probably not seeing things clearly because of how stressed I am, I'm definitely a pessimist and I have horrible anxiety that has just gotten so much worse. I feel like I'm going through this all alone. Do we try to get a loan? Take a gamble and raise the payments? Move out and pay 1200 a month on a one bedroom apartment? I don't know. + +EDIT: Wow... I did not expect this response. I'll try to reply to every message and comment as soon as I can. +My name is Nick Timiraos. I'm a WSJ reporter covering the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic policy and author of Trillion Dollar Triage, my book about the economic-policy response to the pandemic. + +I started reporting for the Journal in 2006 about U.S. housing and mortgage markets. + +This year, I've been reporting on [the U.S. economy's 40-year inflation high](https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-central-banks-maintain-their-autonomy-11661525673) and the ways the Fed is trying to fix it [without raising unemployment](https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-jobs-fed-recession-economy-11650294297). I've interviewed [the Fed chair](https://youtu.be/BwYrbCG_C_U) and [former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers](https://www.wsj.com/live-qa/breaking-down-the-us-economic-outlook-with-larry-summers/BB75F38B-A4D8-478B-9959-FF6FB68D80D0).  + +I'm fresh from yesterday's press conference following the September Fed meeting and ready to answer your questions about what lies ahead for the central bank and the U.S. economy at large. + +PROOF: https://i.redd.it/gwcs5kyaubp91.jpg + +UPDATE: That's all the time I have for now. Thanks for all the great questions. + +I’ll also be hosting a live reader Q&A session with Larry Summers and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday, 9/27 at 1pm ET. You can submit your questions for the panel and watch the conversation here: https://www.wsj.com/live-qa/the-economic-outlook-with-larry-summers-and-the-fed-neel-kashkari/36F3D235-F312-44B3-92D0-443D93D4CE09 +I’ve been in foster family my whole life and a year ago i had to move out and live on my own. +Got a job, invested in good pc and started mining eth. Over time i invested some of my income to Eth and today i have 2.4 ETH. +Since i have job i can take a loan from the bank to buy my own apartment, the thing is i need to have 20% of apartments value (about 10k usd) and the other 80% is covered by bank. And today i accumulated that sum of money. +AND I’M SO FUCKING HYPED I WILL HAVE MY OWN PLACE AT 22 LETS FUCKING GO!!! +Anyway i wanted to thank you all on this and ethmine sub since i learned everything about crypto here, and wish you best of luck in life! +Mods, feel free to remove this if it’s loaded. I’m not trying to push any agenda, I’m genuinely just curious what economists think about these economic systems and whether they see one, the other or a mixture as ideal— seeing as economists are likely some of the most knowledgable people to ask. + +For clarity: by ‘socialism’ I mean a system where everyone has pretty much the same wealth, this being regulated by government. I say socialism and not communism because I think communism as a term is generally associated with authoritarianism, which is another issue I’d rather leave out of an economic discussion. +I take myself to be like many of you on here so I thought I’d share my story. I didn’t yolo or make one large bet. + +I invested in multiple stocks all off which have dropped heavily and I am at 90% portfolio loss. + +I have had to move now to very basic accommodation and the next step for me will be the street. Be careful what you invest in and don’t listen to TA or others who think they can tell the future. + +I never thought I would be homeless but I had too much conviction and was blind sighted by hype. + +When you throw money in the stock market you are gambling, I don’t care what the company is. + +It’s all fun and games until you can’t house or feed yourself. I I my have myself to blame but let my story be a caution to you all. + +Stay safe out there. +I would certainly imagine so. + +As labour becomes more digital it would be very easy for a company to off-shore much of their work load to cheaper countries. + +I'd assume highly regulated fields will be unaffected but unregulated fields like IT, customer service, software etc could easily be undertaken remotely. + +Anecdotally I've already seen this happening in software engineering jobs due to severe corporate budget cuts. +Have natural resources - check + +Having an educated population - check + +Being able to create complex technologies with high added value - check + +My country (Brazil) lacks an educated population and high value-added technology, so I understand it to be poor. But Russia, has a Soviet legacy of industry and a population skilled in technology, see the war and space capabilities they have, in addition to some national car brands. So it tortures me that Australia has 1/6 of the population but six times the GDP per capita. It makes no sense. +If I had read this when I first started off I would probably not believe it myself. I hope after sharing my results people will believe what can be achieved if you work hard to get into the top 0.5% of traders. + +I paper traded for one month and started live trading in June 2020 with a $1500 account. As someone using TradeZero International (non-US based) there are no PDT rule restrictions for under $25k accounts. After reloading several times (total deposits under $10k) I became profitable from January 2021. + +## Stats + +* Started 01/01/2021 with $1800 account equity +* 160 green days +* 91 red days +* 2 days off +* Note below graphs do not include commissions and borrow fees which is why net profit is less + +[All time PnL](https://preview.redd.it/4le3jd16x9981.png?width=454&format=png&auto=webp&s=b750fe524cf2d0886b3c8ae050e2f521e6e8d7c0) + +&#x200B; + +[2021 by month](https://preview.redd.it/7u1zuvhcx9981.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=a58d67a69e8cf53f0904591ce91b4820d133477c) + +December was my best month so far (note average holding time stats are not accurate for daytrades due to some overnight/swing trades affecting the average) + +[December stats](https://preview.redd.it/say8lpvdx9981.png?width=946&format=png&auto=webp&s=5263759e70bd6b839129f757206b1066c3796426) + +[December calendar](https://preview.redd.it/qotzqicex9981.png?width=851&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8974f3faaf15e46f528fd400f3e8663d345f91b) + +## Kinfo verification + +[https://kinfo.com/portfolio/17188/performance](https://kinfo.com/portfolio/17188/performance) + +"Viewing and sharing on kinfo is only possible through direct integration with brokers. There is no way to add manual transactions, remove transactions or in any way manipulate the data which comes from the broker. This makes data on kinfo 100% authentic and there is no way for a user on kinfo to provide fake results on their trading performance." [https://kinfo.com/verified-trades/](https://kinfo.com/verified-trades/) + +# Trading Style + +## Market + +Primarily daytrading US equities both long and short. Recently started expanding to short term swing trading and simple option strategies (long call, long put). + +## Stock Selection + +I trade most stocks that have volume and volatility, from small cap low float gappers to large caps. When I started off with a small account I primarily traded sub $10 stocks. Now I have moved onto midcaps and higher priced stocks since I don't want to pay as much short locate fees. + +Every stock trades differently, some trade cleaner than others than others. For example, tickers like AMC and TSLA have plenty of volume and liquidity, respects technical levels often, leading to frequent opportunities on a daily basis. + +## Style + +I believe there are many different profitable ways to trade, from scalping to swing trading, shorting parabolics to buying dips. You can find edge in any strategy. I would describe my style as: + +* Rooted in technical analysis +* Price action based +* Discretionary systematic + +General types of trade setups: + +* Breakouts, breakdowns (from ranges) +* Mean reversion on "extension" (reversals, short and long) +* Trend following + +## Indicators + +Chart + +* Standard candlestick chart - using various time intervals +* VWAP - session, anchored +* Moving averages - simple, exponential +* Volume +* Volume profile with point of control (PoC) + +Market sentiment + +* SPY - relevant for large caps and market names +* IWM - relevant for small caps +* VIX - volatility index +* BTCUSD - when trading crypto stocks + +## Level 2, Time & Sales/Tape + +My entries are 100% based off the chart. I always have Level 2 (market depth) and Time & Sales (tape) on screen with the order windows and look at them but they are not crucial for me. I can read tape but would not say I'm good at it. + +## Fundamentals + +Fundamentals can be important: when trading small caps many are not "great" companies and often dilute shares to the public market which can affect the price of the stock. In large caps, news events and earnings can drive volatility, so understanding these earnings reports can help. I only have a basic understanding of SEC filings, offerings and other dilution, as there are many tools out there that help with this. Fundamental knowledge can help with understanding why a stock is moving/gapping but technical analysis is still key in timing entries and exits. In trading, being early is the same as being wrong. + +## Risk + +My risk and scaling strategy is pretty basic compounding: max risk per trade is 2% of my current equity, which I adjust at the beginning of each trading day. + +* At $1,500 account my risk per trade was $30. +* At $25,000 it was $500. +* At $50,000 it was $1000 etc. + +Since there is a discretionary aspect to my trading I don't take the same risk every single trade. For example I may risk 1% on okay setups, 2% risk on great setups, and on rare occassions 3% on A+ setups. Look up Kelly criterion to understand why 2% is often used by many systems. + +## R/R & winrate + +There are lots of threads out there on this topic. The default consensus when people talk about RR is to only take trades with a RR higher than 2:1 as it allows you to be profitable with any winrate over 33%. As your RR decreases your winrate must be higher. + +I sometimes take profit before 2R. I sometimes don't take any profit until after 2R. Obviously I try to aim for at least 2R+ targets in order to have a positive expectancy overall, but mostly I base my decisions off the chart and potential support/resistance zones, how price action is forming when inside the trade, so I do not rigidly take profit at fixed multiples of the risk amount. + +## Review & Journalling + +The process of reviewing is crucial to a trader's progression. People do it different ways; some people track large amounts of quantitive data in excel, others are more qualitative in their analysis of executions and charts. + +I use TraderVue to import my trades daily and tag them with labels based on setups and characteristics. Every weekend I review my trades of the week, biggest winners, biggest losers and missed opportunities, annotating and screenshotting charts which are saved to a OneNote notebook. + +# Tools I use + +* Benzinga Pro - news +* Twitter - news, other traders +* TradingView - charts +* TradingView - scanner +* Finviz - scanner +* TradeZero - broker +* Discord - community +* Tradervue - journal +* OneNote - journal +* Excel - risk calculator +* DilutionTracker - fundamentals +* BamSEC - fundamentals + +# Some advice to newer traders + +* Find a mentor + +Mentors have been through all the mistakes a beginner trader will encounter, and can offer invaluable advice to speed up the learning curve. Even so, nothing can replace real world experience and most traders will still go on to experience the same mistakes themselves before learning + +* Join a community + +Trading can be a solitary job. It can be beneficial to talk ideas with other traders. Communities/chatrooms are also good for idea generation, and acting as scanners. Essentially you have many other traders looking at similar stocks and talking about tradeable charts. You should not join chatrooms to chase alerts as the end goal is to become independent in your trading + +* Put in the effort, accumulate screen time + +For most trading days I have watched the charts for the majority of market hours (9:30 to 4:00). I say this to show the amount of screen time I have personally accumulated. On top of that the time spent on weekends reviewing and journalling trades, charting potential setups for the week ahead (even though a lot can change on Monday). + +* Practice + +Watching the markets is good, but nothing will beat real trading experience. I missed 2 trading days this year out of 252 days, with a total 8136 trades (granted, the first half of the year I was overtrading massively in learning stages) + +* Start with very small capital while having a stable income + +Growing 10k to 50k should be the same as growing 50k to 250k (for the most part, unless your strategy runs into liquidity issues). Prove you can do it with a smaller account first. Then you must conquer emotion and discipline once you are trading bigger dollar amounts. + +It's easier to learn while having another source of income rather than trying to become profitable while living paycheck to paycheck on trading income. + +## End + +The best part about trading is that the only limit to your success is yourself. Compared to many other traders I am still only a beginner and have so much yet to learn. The potentials of trading are huge and my journey has only just begun. My goal next year is to cross $1M profits and keep scaling up. + +Hope this helps those starting out just like I did in the beginning. Feel free to ask any questions! I also post trades & charts daily on my twitter [Valckrie](https://twitter.com/Valckrie) +Some context: I am a 16-year-old high school student. I've always been a big fan of dividend stocks, however, my parents are not allowing me to get a job as I should be focusing on school. I am a lazy guy, I do not like to work, and do not plan on working for very long in my life; getting paid for literally not doing anything is just so appealing to me. Currently, I have around $1,400 invested in dividend stocks, all saved from allowance and/or from my past shoe reselling experiences. I am also investing with my uncle, and we are consistently making $1,000 in profit every month, of which I get a 20% cut. Additionally, I have invested a thousand dollars into cryptocurrencies and hope to leave it there to thrive for a couple of years. + +Now the question is, my parents, do not think that I will be able to live off dividends in 20 years, despite me explaining to them how compounding works and how over time the small amount I have invested will grow into big numbers. Are they correct? I have always looked at dividend stocks as my escape out of the typical 9-5s that all my peers are working towards. However, now I am worried that I am delusional and I will be working for the majority of my life. + +If anybody has been in my position before and has gone through with it, how did it work out? Did you succeed or are dividends simply not enough to live off of? +I happened upon this article about a driver talking about how much he makes driving for Uber and Lyft: https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-lyft-driver-how-much-money-2019-10#when-it-was-all-said-and-done-i-ended-the-week-making-25734-in-a-little-less-than-14-hours-on-the-job-8 + +In short, he says he made $257 over 13.75 hours of work, for almost $19 an hour. He later mentions expenses (like gas) but as an afterthought, not including it in the hourly wage. + +The federal mileage rate is $0.58 per mile. This represents the actual cost to you and your car per mile driven. The driver drove 291 miles for the work he mentioned, which translates into expenses of $169. + +This means his profit is only $88, for an hourly rate of $6.40. Yet reading the article, it all sounds super positive and awesome and gives the impression that it's a great side-gig. No, all you're doing is turning vehicle depreciation into cash. +Lots of posts and comments lately saying how it’ll probably squeeze the way Overstock and Tesla did. In other words, a “slow burner”. + +This is GME, the only stonk in history that is recognised as an “idiosyncratic risk”. Overstock and Tesla were never labelled that. + +Did Overstock or Tesla have an online community of hundreds of thousands of global, individual investors, that have become best friends, educate each other, and their favorite hobby is upvoting purple circles? Nope. + +Half of the free float, and rising, taken out of DTC’s hands? They didn’t have that either. + +How about 115 days+ of 100% short utilisation? I doubt it. + +What about a shared understanding amongst their investors that the price will reach $100 million and beyond if everyone just holds? Or an infinity pool? Nope, none of those. + +MOASS has already begun, it’s a pressure cooker that’s been boiling for 18 months. When they can no longer keep the lid on it, it’s gonna be the most explosive and violent squeeze in history. And yes, we’ve been waiting a while now, but that day will eventually come. + +Nothing like this has ever happened before, nor will it happen again. It’s incomparable. + +All you gotta do is buy, DRS, and hold. + +Now buckle the fuck up, and prepare for the ride of your life 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +> Several customers of online brokerage platform Groww got a rude shock, finding their investments in liquid schemes redeemed without their authorisation and re-invested in a New Fund Offer. +> +> Kanika Gupta, one such affected investor, said that her entire investment in ICICI Prudential Mutual Ultra Short Debt Fund Direct was switched to a new ICICI Flexi Cap fund without her knowledge on July 12. Incidentally, the NFO of ICICI Flexi Cap closed the same day. + +https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/unauthorised-switch-leaves-mutual-fund-investors-in-shock/article35476572.ece +**EDIT: Added a warning because people in the comments seem to think I’m trying to manipulate people** + +**WARNING: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY RISKY PLAY: THERE ARE NO METRICS OR CURRENT DATA TO PROVIDE SOLID DD TO HAVE A MORE “CERTAIN” OUTCOME. WHAT YOU ARE TRULY BETTING ON IS OTHER PEOPLE. I WONT TRY TO CONVINCE YOU WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY. THIS IS MY SPECULATION, MY OPINION AND IT VERY WELL COULD BE WRONG** + +Hello all, + +I wanted to post last night as many of you commenters have asked for however my building lost power and it was absolutely awful. I am currently a refuge and my ladies house and wanted to get this out to the world. + +Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, but more importantly this is all simply speculation. If anyone wants to make counter claims they are more than welcome but word of advice to all readers. If anyone is claiming that they know exactly what is going to happen...they are lying. There simply isn't enough current data to push this either direction. I am a bull, big time and I would like to explain why. + +**First let's talk about yesterday** + +There are a lot of claims of short ladder attacks and the counter-claim is that it was MM's moving the price down. One thing appears certain, there is some sort of manipulation happening in an attempt to drive the price down. Whether this is MM's, HF's, or simply retail shorts and bears; there are a strange number of exchanges happening in a clear effort to lower the price. You can check out the real time quotes [here](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/latest-real-time-trades). + +Another large thought about why the price should have gone **up** yesterday was because of the options thats expired Friday 1/29 ITM. The rule is T+2 meaning these individuals have two business days to cover. Well, we expected a surge of these individuals covering and it simply never came. Everyone was glued to the screen Friday ATH waiting to see the spike of covering...but it never happened. Monday again...never happened. Tuesday...oh boy this is their last day they have to cover! Yet...they didn't. So what does this mean? Well, I see two possibilities. + +1. They somehow timed it perfectly and covered throughout the dips and spikes +2. They haven't covered yet + +I'm in the camp of number 2 hence why I am a bull. If they didn't cover that results in a Failure to Deliver which you can learn about [here](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/failuretodeliver.asp). So what does this mean for us? Well, that would explain the tremendous price drop as FTD's create "phantom shares" a problem GME is already facing. This will dilute the price tremendously and the amount of FTD's that probably occurred would greatly dilute the price. "With [forward contracts](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/forwardcontract.asp), a party with a short position's failure to deliver can cause significant problems for the party with the [long position](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp). This difficulty happens because these contracts often involve substantial volumes of assets that are pertinent to the long position's business operations." From the earlier mentioned website regarding FTD's. + +Now this is truly fascinating. The 2008 crisis was largely in part due to a mass number of FTD's. In fact, FTD's sometime intentionally happen...just to drive the price down for FUD so they can then cover at a better price. + +So if this is correct, what happens next? Well, either you can [read about it here](https://financialreview.poole.ncsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Fails-to-deliver_before_and_after_the_implementation_of_Rule_203_and_Rule_204.pdf). Simply put, the individual has to close out the positions after 13 consecutive settlement days of FTD. So all this logic about T+2 was actually just the logic to begin the FTD countdown, if it hasn't already started at the beginning of this. + +Now, I'm not saying "nobody sold" of course people did. But volume is key and the interest in buying outweighed the interest in selling 3-1 Monday and Tuesday. Of course trades are 1-1 but interest was on the buyer side. + +Obviously, I don't even need to mention it but restricted trading really is what screwed this thing to begin with. My opinion? It wasn't to prevent a massive short squeeze, it was to buy them time. + +**Today** + +So why the hell did it spike this morning? Two reasons. + +1. RH still has 100 shares limit on GME, now for those who don't realize, that doesn't mean that is 100 shares per day. No no. The restriction is you can own up to 100 shares of GME. If you already own over 100 shares that's fine, but anyone with less than 100 shares can only add up to that amount. This restriction has not changed and other companies such as Revolut are still imposing a 100% trading restriction on GME. So what did RH offer today? The ability to purchase fractional shares, which doesn't help a whole lot but the fact that buying pressure accelerated at the notion of fractional shares shows that there is still an immense amount of buyers out there. +2. GameStop [adds new CTO to the roster, an ex AWS lead engineer.](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/03/2169124/0/en/GameStop-Appoints-Chief-Technology-Officer.html) They added other executive positions as well. This further cements the change the company is taking. + +Now, before I get into the rest I want to address something: the fundamentals. + +There is a disturbing echo chamber around the idea that GameStop is a dying brick and mortar retailer and there is no chance at survival. That is simply not the case. I don't want to do a full GME DD here because this is about the second incoming squeeze. However, let me put it to you this way: + +If you were told that a new company was IPO'ing and it was coming to the market with an infrastructure, new talented team, 50 million customers and their plan was to become an e-commerce company to compete with Amazon; their plans for the physical locations was to be game-centric, a place for e-sports to compete, desktop building kiosks, and the newest systems and physical copies of games for those who still love having a physical copy. Not just that, but this company already has revenue share deals with Microsoft and other bigwig companies. + +Knowing all that information would you be interested in this company? My answer is an easy yes. The thing with digital transformation and companies changing direction is people get so lost in what the company used to be they can't see what the company is planning on becoming. If this was a brand new company that Ryan Cohen was leading with the same exact model people would be all over the concept. + +Enough of that. Let's talking about what is still going on today which is truly fascinating. + +So the good news created a large uptick follow by a combination of people escaping with whatever gains they could salvage and some more clear manipulation regardless of the source. But then what? Well, after the bounce down a lot of people saw this as a fantastic buying opportunity which made it recover quickly...but then something interesting started happening. It started uptrending. Slowly. Steadily. Uptrending. Lower lows, higher highs; no sight more beautiful. + +My interpretation? We found the bottom of the bears attack. The news has been consistently saying the squeeze is over but one and at time they are saying their might be a second surge and their reasoning is if retailors see this price drop as a buying opportunity instead of red flags, it will surely send the price up. The logic there is simple: if people are buying stock it goes up, if people are selling, it goes down. + +So today is pure magic. It doesn't need to be a wild swing up to be promising. What it needs to be is slow, consistent buying pressure even during restricted trading. + +But all the shorts covered! Simply not true. That is a fact. All we know is what people are telling us. Melvin says they covered. It will be the third time they have claimed that. Do I think they covered? Yes, I do. Does that matter? No. Now even if Melvin and others covered and the S3 figures are right that means the guess right now is that this stock is still 57% short. Based on their Twitter this isn't including newly opened positions which anyone in their right mind would certainly open a short position when it was 3-400. They thought this bubble would pop and they would make a quick buck. They saw it get down to $85 and started celebrating...but it starting climbing...uh oh. + +Truth is, no one will know the real numbers until the 9th. I think it's a little too much tin foil hat to says those numbers will be misconstrued but what we have witnessed over the past few days...it's possible. + +So let's talk about who is currently holding GameStop. Well, a shit ton of degenerates that have lost millions of dollars and seemingly don't give a shit. They are here out of principle, truth be told, so am I. I absolutely refuse to give any shares to the shorts after the crap they pulled last week. So we have a ton of bag holders refusing to sell and a ton of people wondering if now is the time to get in for a potential epic second short squeeze. No one is going to sell at these levels. Some people here and there but it simply isn't worth it, not with so much potential for a second squeeze. + +**So when will this second squeeze happen?** + +If the newest shorts are smart, it already begun. If I took up a short position and saw this start climbing again after everything it has been through, you better believe I would be covering now while I have profits. Not all of them are going to do this, which is why as the price gradually rises the potential for a larger and larger squeeze is exponential. There is no telling when it will happen. It could be a slow climb for the next couple of weeks before it pops. The 9th will be a huge indicator of what is to come, if that has anywhere above 50% short interest you better believe everyone is going to hop right back into it. It could happen as early as this week. It could be post earnings when Papa Cohen tells us his majestic plans during ER. It could be that ER will actually be fantastic on 03/05 because it will have the console cycle numbers. Look at GME charts in the past, the console cycle always makes the stock pop and with all this attention that very well could be the catalyst. + +**In summary** + +I wanted to do deeper analysis for you all but I knew some of you were really looking forward to the next post and my thoughts regarding the situation so I wanted to get something out there. In my opinion, a second surge, a second squeeze is bound to happen. This is a buying opportunity for those who missed the first one and I think the market and stock price is reflecting that sentiment. + +Positions: + +1100 GME @ $16 closed + +500 GME @ $20 closed + +50 GME @ $120 open + +236 GME @ $250 open + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR:** I have yet to see any indication or good thesis to explain why the short squeeze would be over. Even if Melvin covered and even if S3 numbers are correct at a 57% short, these are indicators of another squeeze, potentially even more epic. The bleeding days of red on Monday and Tuesday I personally think was a combination of panic selling when premarket and ATH didn't blow up due to the ITM calls and phantom shares being created due to consistent FTD's diluting the share price. I do think these FTD's were intentional and what many are perceiving as a short ladder attack is in fact the creation and purchasing of phantom shares driving the price down. If you are a bagholder, I think it wise to hold, if you have already closed your position I would consider what we are witnessing as another buying opportunity. + +Final disclaimer. I have already made a significant sum of money on this GME play. This post is not a hope that you will come rescue me from my bagholding status. The money I put back in was money I was willing to lose and I came back in out of principle to stick it to the man. Good luck everyone and be grateful to be alive during this time, this will go down in financial history quite possibly forever. Retail investors have more power than we think. +4 years ago today I was sitting in the Atlanta airport and getting more and more annoyed that the FIRE community was being overtaken by the leanFIRE way of thinking. + +So I created a new subreddit called fatFIRE to be a place where people who were interested in FIRE, but on a higher standard of living, could come together and discuss issues without the noise of “just cut your expenses down to the bone and buy vanguard index funds” parroted endlessly. + +We will always be a smaller community (because that’s how wealth works) but seeing 100k subscribers is amazing! I’m so gratified to see real in depth discussions happening every day. + +Happy cake day everyone! + +PS my original account u/tamo42 got banned from Reddit for unrelated stuff, and that’s probably the best thing that could have happened for fatFIRE. The mods have done a great job at fostering community since then. +I watched a debate between Milton Friedman and some random college student and he makes three claims about the welfare state: + + +1. The welfare state produces poor people. +2. The welfare state encourages family's to break up. +3. The minimum wage increases black employment. + +How true were those claims when he said that and how true are those claims today? He said this in the 1970s so I would expect them to be dated. +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bd5yjg0sb1171.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eecf3cef72278d8c21e839efde2fdabd438d247 + +Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6h4j7vwvb1171.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d3d57ab6015b6d22d3226db20bf89dfe279b8ba + +# Intro + +Due to what we've seen occur over the past weekend we are expecting a big influx of new members. I've seen threads from r/CryptoCurrency and other subs finally catching on that the behavior we have seen recently is far from normal. + +For the people who are not familiar with the situation it's fairly easy: + +Market makers/brokers/ idiots involved with stocks have abused crypto's in order to stave off their margin calls, they did this by pumping up lots of low cap crypto's so they could show they had enough liquidity they would dump it, in order to have profit to redo their work again and again. + +Effectively digging their own hole deeper and deeper. + +So for the new apes joining, welcome to the jungle! + +&#x200B; + +Also because some people did not read it, there have been some updates to the sub a few days ago u/redchessqueen99 wrote up a thread about it and be sure to give it a quick look to make sure you're up to date. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nilq5f/the\_great\_ape\_updation/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nilq5f/the_great_ape_updation/) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/c8mzsdnxh1171.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ce84030bea70fdd74e1d055d7d8e9cca2f7675e + +# WO IST MEIN DEUTSCHE MARKT?!! + +For everyone wondering WHY IS THERE NO GERMAN PREMARKET!!!??? + +it's due to Pentacost, it's a christian holiday so the german market is closed today, so expect the pre market volume to be even lower than normal. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# Official AMA- Lucy Komisar Today + +for the most up to date information regarding the AMA check out [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nj867u/official_ama_lucy_komisar_monday_may_24th_lucy/) + +&#x200B; + +[It seems the apes were early, but not wrong ](https://preview.redd.it/d6ejrm4og1171.png?width=831&format=png&auto=webp&s=028c5c6104ac0f81c8a68d61d15df63df39c68e8) + +&#x200B; + +# MARGIN DEBT AT ALL TIME HIGH + +This week is the week were the CEO's of a lot of major banks has to appear before congress... not entirely sure why but I remember there were a lot of this happening post 2008 crash stuff. + + There is a thread about it [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/nj6iz0/ceos_of_major_banks_testifying_this_week_margin/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) which goes more in depth then I do. + +May 26 at 12:00 PM ET: The Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will convene for a virtual hearing entitled, “Consumer Credit Reporting: Assessing Accuracy and Compliance.”  + +May 27 at 12:00 PM ET: The full Committee will convene for a virtual hearing entitled, “**Holding Megabanks Accountable**: An Update on Banking Practices, Programs and Policies.”  + +[Link To Committee Site](https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=407897) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/im50fwvpd1171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=e075b266780072fcc9f7a221a66b1fad9b86d651 + +# Today is the day.... again.... part 10 + +So let's look at a couple of indicators + +[this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nil0ww/sp_500_negative_yield_crescat_capital_letter_may/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) by u/jealous_squash_1031 + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[this was one of the indicators Dr. Burry used](https://preview.redd.it/1msxqvsdf1171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=faf3c53da7ccd281994041fa7278fcd10a9527d2) + +&#x200B; + +[👀👀👀](https://preview.redd.it/n832btyvg1171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8887cf8a93b35d6bc62cd9b037c4904232c20f25) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vfeh3vahf1171.png?width=627&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa9002eee60d94d262871cf08120d709fbf7881 + +Just to go off of indicators... this looks like a huge market crash is coming very soon, not "Blizzard soon tm" but actually soon. + +We have seen a lot of new rules get passed very fast recently, we have seen banks and hedgefunds burning the midnight oil and on weekends, we see every possible indicator possible pointing to a market crash (even crypto is being cashed out because they need money)... this is the stuff hypothesized would happen for a long time, and now it's here. + +To the Crypto gang just joining us, welcome, if you guys need help feel free to help in the daily thread, apes like to help with anything 😉 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/e6wl931ei1171.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac1a26a22aa0c9a1bd51163b7d25b0002a3a1e5e + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pczh5zlgi1171.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=be5ba28356309ec88b89decb77c45cb79fff95f7 + + + +Remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) +Big Short investor Michael Burry warns US stocks are heavily overvalued & poised to tumble. Noted the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio has nearly doubled in 10yrs. + + What do you think? +That's it, that's the advice. I really can't believe people are still doing it. + +Actual quote from an article I just read, from somebody who got destroyed by the flood.. + +>"It seemed astute to move into a flood area after the last flood, because it's a little bit cheaper and we could afford a place here,.. +> +>...We just thought it might flood again in 30 years or something like that, and we'd totally avoid it. But yeah, here it is. We couldn't believe it." + +They knew it was a flood zone, that suffered bad floods recently, decided it sounded like a bargin. Despite the mountains of evidence pointing towards Australia only suffering worse floods, bush fires and extreme weather over the coming years. + +As this sub is about 'getting out of debt, investing, and saving for retirement.'. And I haven't seen this mentioned, yet people are repeatedly walking into this trap.. the advice seems relevant for preventing debt and securing a retirement.. Just don't buy in a flood zone. + +You can download the flood maps of any area online. Likewise you can check an area for bush fire risk etc. it's not a lesson you want to learn the hard way. It could be the biggest financial mistake you ever make. +Hi, I'm a teenager looking to get into stocks to make some money and I'm unsure if I should invest in typical blue chips or go with penny stocks? I start with about $500 and trade with either ETrade or Scott trade. Any tips from anyone? +Tesla has suspended vehicle purchases using Bitcoin. We are concerned about rapidly increasing use of fossil fuels for bitcoin mining and transactions, especially coal, which has the worst emissions of any fuel + +Cryptocurrency is a good idea on many levels and we believe it has a promising future, but this cannot come at great cost to the environment. + +Tesla will not be selling any Bitcoin and fudding the entire crypto market into shambles. We will send you to the moon as long as you share your hatred for elon. + +FuckElonMusk We are also looking at other cryptocurrencies that use <1% of Bitcoin's energy/transaction. + +Elon is a bitch, he thinks he can just poo on crypto whenever he wants? Tweeting from his big mansions while high af? Well fuck him and fuck doge. + +After Elon Has Manipulated The market i have lost all respect for him - $FUCKELON + +We just fair launched this FUCKELON token, get onboard and send that cunt a message. + +Locked LIQ - [https://bscscan.com/tx/0xf8350db7d404bd7260c9de6e09a9bdd3850c0910b12ebc9af08274fe5ac18379](https://bscscan.com/tx/0xf8350db7d404bd7260c9de6e09a9bdd3850c0910b12ebc9af08274fe5ac18379) + +Renounced Ownership - [https://bscscan.com/tx/0x210a892d577f5d86643b0016d9aeeacbf443ee7013b6b534bc4abefd92c322f9](https://bscscan.com/tx/0x210a892d577f5d86643b0016d9aeeacbf443ee7013b6b534bc4abefd92c322f9) + +✅ 13% tax (5% to LP / 5% to holders/ 3% LIQ) + +✅ 50% initial burn & lock + +✅ Verified contract + +✅ LP Locked + +✅ Renounced Ownership after Launching + +Questions? Join our TG ! + +🕸 Website: [https://fuckelonmusk.co/](https://fuckelonmusk.co/) + +Contract-[0xd2602dbb063627b80d5ae671007900f558c49e35](https://bscscan.com/token/0xd2602dbb063627b80d5ae671007900f558c49e35) + +Telegram -[https://t.me/FkElonMusk](https://t.me/FkElonMusk) + +Bsc Scan Verified contract -[https://bscscan.com/token/0xd2602dbb063627b80d5ae671007900f558c49e35](https://bscscan.com/token/0xd2602dbb063627b80d5ae671007900f558c49e35) +So about a year ago I opened up a TFSA for the first time at 22 years old. My contribution room was $34,000. I maxed it fairly quick because I have a good amount saved up. Initially I invested mostly into ETFS like VFV, XQQ, VCN etc. In November I decided to take a risk and invest $11,000 into Facebook and bought 27 shares at $322. I decided to do this for a long term hold. However yesterday Facebook stock fell nearly 27% and is now valued at 235 a share. I don't know why I invested so much of my portfolio into one stock.. I feel insanely depressed right now. I don't know if I should sell or continue to hold? + +Edit: wow the canadian subreddit is so much nicer than the american one. Thanks everyone for the advice, feel a lot better :) +Hello Fellow Traders! + +A few weeks ago my college decided to drop me (M21) out because there was a mistake made by a third party which led to me not being in the school system. + +I have been into trading cryptocurrencies for a few years now and a couple of months ago I came in contact with day/swing trading. In these months I got the basics down and began trading forex/indices on a paper trade account and doubled this account within a month (probably some beginners luck haha) + +Since I'm out of college I have a ton of time towards myself. I want to make this time useful and teach myself a lot of new skills like trading, marketing and building websites. + +Now my goal for trading is to start learning more about it, especially day and swing trading. I want to invest at least 5 hours a day studying the market, learning trading techniques and getting proper risk management in. + +My question towards you guys is, how likely/possible is it for me to make a consistent 2/5% profit each month? And turn this into an income of let's say 20k a year (Given that I have created proper risk management, and studying at least 5 hours each day) + +Thanks for the read, and if you have any questions just let me know! :) +I apologise to everyone but I need to tell people but I can not tell anyone in real life. + +This afternoon a client agreed to allow my partners and me to finance their expansion. It means I have created about 100 regional jobs and a new export market for Australian-made medicines. + +I created a business model that means the vast majority of the profit remains in Australia while creating new US-listed company worth $100 million. And I get about 2.5% of all the capital. + +Australian medical tech will be locally manufactured and exported throughout the world. + +As always there are many a slip between the cup and the lips but assuming it goes OK within six weeks everything will be done. +This isn't a pump piece but more of an observations piece. + +Does anyone feel like this is Q4 2016 all over again? I'm talking about price and sentiment here in this sub specifically when we had less than 5000 members. I'm probably not going to get a lot of old timers to chime in here but our numbers have gone 10x+ in terms of members and everything is magnified. + +The main difference this time pricewise is we're fighting for $1000 instead of $10. Just reading everything on Reddit yesterday with /u/laughncow [crash graph comments](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/83xplk/here_is_a_history_of_crypto_corrections/?st=jepjvgad&sh=6178e015) reminds me of the troll winter here in EthTrader back in Q4 2016....lots of long timers were starting bailing out because they'd never seen a crash before that big. MANY MANY people bought at the high range $18-$22 (yes including me) and were capitulating under $12 hoping to get back in around $3 "because they'd seen it in Bitcoin before". And then the reversal took place at $5.85....so my mind thinks the market wants to see yet a 3rd dip to $585 to complete the painting of the tape. I will not dare sell here. So be it if it does. + + + +*"um..guys are we gonna be like 2014 400 day long bear again?"..."guys are we?"* + +When I here this fear I get the feeling that someone over invested. Don't over-invest. I made that mistake in that particular year. You can use risky money if you are younger but PLEASE don't use emergency money. One unforeseen medical bill forced my hand to sell at a loss that year. PLEASE don't use emergency money like I did. + +Now fundamentals have improved dramatically in terms of conference attendance, community participation, EEA, truffle use, DAPPS going through final audits/testing, OMG plasma in May along with a whole new wave media/gov/companies everywhere piling in the space and concern trolls are really truly worried we may revisit $100 again. REALLY? + + *"I'll be back in when we complete the retrace to $100-$200. I hate to see $300 break but it may"* blah blah blah. + +I know I'm a man of many rose colored glasses. There are ALWAYS going to politics and regulation fears in crypto. Just get it in your head that crypto is here to stay. The US at least is wanting your tax dollars any way they can and crypto is no longer something that has a fear of being wiped (which it can't anyway but that's a different philosophy thread) but rather being considering a BOOMING new asset class. An asset class that has proven to be a very low barrier to entry asset class with much to prove in terms of utility and trustless settlements. + +You can buy now, buy later, sell now, sell later. 4 choices. I personally think the band-aid is off and the next move up may leave you the way the reversal left so many traders at the station Q1 2017 particularly in April 2017. Traders back then who had sold at $10 never reentered because the price hit $50 and was still "overvalued". Now here we are just just under the new $7 in my book. + +I'm beginning to think market makers are holding a lower ceiling here and the higher lows are coming. I can feel it. Bitcoin needs to shit the bed one more time and let the strong hands go deep in around $7500, ETH ratio holds/goes higher here, we touch $550-$625 or so and then the train leaves the good gosh golly darn station again. No problem doing some DCA here. Just some thoughts. + +Project to January 2020 for a bit. What do you see? + + +To all economists out there, I'm starting to learn more about economics but there are some lessons that I struggle with because of lack of examples and sometimes I'm having a hard time understanding it. Hoping you guys would share some simple examples about my question. Thanks a lot +I come from generations of poverty. Many of my cousins have been to prison, or live in trailers in the same dead-end town we grew up in. No one has a steady job, or a career to speak of. My mom did the best she could as a single parent, always working two or three jobs. I was never given any advice on how to plan for a life, career, college, etc. and so I took some classes but still don't have a degree (in my thirties), neither does my husband. We make an OK living, probably lower-middle class income, but we are still struggling at times. +Our kid is five, what do I need to do to NOW to help him become the first person in our family get a college degree? Seems like everyone else is successful by this point in our lives and we're still struggling. I don't want him to have to struggle so hard just to get by... + + +Edit: Getting a lot of comments along the lines of 'don't have a kid if you can't afford it.' Just to clarify, we can afford it just fine. We don't have 8 kids, we have one. my question is in regards to "how can i help my child get out of the lower class? middle and upper class people have access to lots of information and resources that i didn't growing up - what are those things? what are the basics i need to start teaching him now?" + + +Edit2:wow, this is getting some attention! here's a little more details: + +*we've since moved away from the dead-end town in a bigger city, so no sleazy family influences to deal with + +*we picked our current location based on the best public school system in the area, but it's still only rated about a 5/10 + +*we're good on the basic-basic daily needs, we have a budget, but just can't ever get ahead on getting an emergency fund together + +*financial situation is mostly due to me not having a college degree, and my husband finally got his GED last week (hooray!) + + + +Edit3: holy cow! i'm making my way through comments slowly, lots of great stuff in here. thanks for all the kind words and encouragement! + + + +Edit4: OK almost 900 comments, I am so overwhelmed, lots of encouragement. Gonna take a break for a few hours and keep reading later, today's Library Day (open late on Mondays)! Much Reddit love 🖤🖤🖤 + + + +Edit 5: OK guys, I've tried to keep up, but checking out for now! Lots of people have suggested going back to school myself, and it looks like I may be able to sign up for some summer courses. Thanks for all the awesome stories of moms and dads who did make a better life for their families through sacrifice and hard work. It's good to know it was worth the effort and was a good lesson too. Lots to think about, and a big list to put together! +There's a lot of stories here of exits of 7 and 8 figures, but the common discussion seems to lean towards being prudent with the windfall and a sensible asset allocation strategy going forward. + +Has anyone here done the opposite and just splurged after an exit? Stuff like fancy cars, popping bottles, crazy parties and generally living a globe trotting playboy lifestyle. + +Like many of us here, including me, especially if you're in tech or focused 24/7 on your business, don't really partake in the party scene nor really have a social circle that does. + +I've always been kind of enamored by this kind of lifestyle, and it seems like it's something I would like to at experience. But how does a geeky tech guy, like myself, really get into this scene and meet like minded and fat friends who party hard? + +For those who have gone down this path before, what was worth the money and what wasn't? +Hey guys, without disclosing too much information both my parents have passed away within the last two years. I'm currently a 20 year old studying finance at my state university. With my mother now gone I am the only person left in my family. I grew up pretty middle class but between life insurance and trustfunds set up after my father passing away I have approximately $1.5m in assets on hand. My trustfund is segmented into 3 payments one of which I just got, one for after I earn an MBA and one when I'm 30 totaling to $3.7m. Truthfully I am extremely overwhelmed with everything going on and the money is the last thing I'm concerned about. I have extremely bad depression from my father passing away and have struggled with suicidal thoughts for years now. I'm very worried I will have to take time away from school because I'm mentally in such a bad place. Between losing my entire family, having to deal with estate bullsh\*t, and school I feel so overwhelmed with everything on my plate. I would like to get a financial advisor but really haven't started looking into what that entails. At the moment I have 2 properties but have absolutely no idea where to start, how to find new tenants since one is leaving, or whether I should just sell them both. Any advice is appreciated. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Breakdown of the $1.5 + +\~$900k in stocks, bonds, retirement, roth ira, 401k, etc. + +\~$117k cash on hand + +\~$483k in commercial real estate I hold the property titles for +I am not super knowledgeable about economics. However, I am quite curious. How does the US have a higher poverty rate than most Vietnamese and Filipinos? Aren't these countries relatively poor? I don't quite get it. +I've searched here, /r/economics, and /r/badeconomics and I cannot find anyone specifically asking "is this considered good, if pop, economics?" About the closest I think I found was someone saying a part of the book was required for an undergrad class, which I know is not always an indication of quality. +For those saying the SEC/GG is worthless & doesn’t do shit: + +— …2021-010 was withdrawn when apes got loud. + +For those asking for an ELI5: + +“assuming no significant changes from 2021-010 it’s a rule to launder illegal naked shorts & persistent FTDs + +The NSCC explicitly “understands” that there are significant FTDs, Naked Shorts and similar that need to be cleared. This rule proposes a service to “avoid” those pesky obligations. It does so by introducing a new transaction layer that “novates” (replaces) old obligations b/w NSCC member lender / short sellers / prime brokers / etc. with a new obligation b/w a member and the NSCC itself as the new counterparty. This novation is done with even more lending of securities. + +Comment on the rule. It has been withdrawn twice already and this is the third time it has be introduced. If this service is implemented before the float is locked via DRS and there is every reason to believe that MOASS trendies and justice are seriously threatened.” + + +Now. For those saying I am of so few wrinkles, can I have a template? + +— the answer is NO! Get PISSed and write from your heart. This proposal is not in the interest of RETAIL. This does NOT lead to Transparency or hold those who have put this country at risk accountable. + +Edit: last year I needed help attaching a document to an email, so bear with me. + +SR-NSCC-2022-801 is the advance notice + +Folks are telling me: + +SR-NSCC-2022-003 is the current & best version for comments: + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2022/34-94694.pdf + +Email: rule-comments@sec.gov + +Another direct link: + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an.htm +I read somewhere that the 40 hour work week was supposed to be for one person per household. + +I would assume that, at first, dual income households saw a big advantage over single income households (on average). But eventually dual incomes became the norm, prices rose, and then it was expected in many ways. + +Is that why Boomers are looked at as doing so well, because they hit the sweet spot where women were working and getting paid well but it wasn't yet quite so expected and necessary like today, because they hadn't been doing it for long? +Labeling this DD because, aside from having to do with *an offer to be paid to post DD*, I actually performed due diligence on the [offer](https://imgur.com/a/tziYjXQ). + +If you think those alarm posts yesterday about top posters here/YouTubers getting paid to distract apes during the MOASS was FUD, I'm here with [proof](https://i.imgur.com/ybOBrfA.jpg) it's totally fucking true. (Details edited out for privacy. More on why below...) **I have now sent unedited proof of the company to mods just for public integrity so you all know I'm not making this up. ~~No I will not publicly out them right now~~ [Update 4/18](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtc4xu/buying_influence_the_pump_and_dump_scheme_preying/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)** + +[Update 1: I posted part of the phone call for the naysayers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/msdr64/yall_wanted_proof_here_is_the_first_60_seconds_of/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Some of you may know my username from memes. Sometimes I overdose on crayons and throw up a colorful DD. Some people think I'm crazy because I've posted some kinda out there theories (I stand by every one of them). But I'm just doing my thing, posting about GME in a few main stock subs since January. Cruising around reddit being a trippy lil pink cat 🐈🍄💕 + +In the last couple of weeks I feel the tides have changed on the battlefront. Obvious paid shill accounts with the ol' adjective-noun-number format in their username started commenting way more hateful, personal stuff on my posts. All kinds of messages that seemed like they were meant to be not too aggressive, but make me paranoid none the less. After I made a few seemingly big connections in my recent posts, my account was reported for self harm. (I am a perfectly happy and content lil kitty, don't worry 🙂). Things started getting a little spooky. I also got over [100](http://imgur.com/a/02FrYiS) new followers just after posting that same OP. (I'm not going to link it here because that's not what this post is about.) + +**Did you hear me?!** *Over 100 new followers in like a 2 hour time frame. After a post that got like 30 upvotes and some Q comments.* + +Which brings me to why I'm posting this now. I was approached yesterday by a brand new reddit account to *Get paid to write posts/DDs/memes in our stock subs, but only about certain NASDAQ/NYSE/OTC/EURO companies. NOT GME* + +I scheduled a phone interview yesterday afternoon because... y'know... curiosity killed the cat. And of course I (legally) documented it. I am not implying the company itself is malicious, that's not for me to decide, therefore I will not be sharing it here. I have thrown it into the void of the SEC and my local reps, along with all the other things I've shared with them. Not as a whistle-blower, because my evidence doesn't necessarily prove (or disprove) anything directly. + +But it sure jacked my tits in the confirmation bias dept. + +As I said, I'm not going into detail about what was discussed. But I would be paid to post DD and other content about a certain assigned company or stock and essentially, it seemed to me, to "pump" that stock in our beloved subs (ok I can actually prove that with the offer itself). It is in fact a real media company making this offer. I think they are paid to come to us top posters and try to ~~bribe~~ distract us away from talking about GME. The woman I talked to was just a rep that knew nothing of reddit or how it works, but she said their "expert team of social media analysts familiar with reddit has been watching me and chose to approach me."🤷‍♀️(Please don't out yourself here if you're among us ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ as I've tried very hard to avoid calling anyone out or accuse of anything directly.) + +I did not give them my real name. They got a burner phone number to [contact me](http://imgur.com/a/itcxxer). I actually requested they just call me Pink for the phone call 🤭👑 + +**I want you to know I'm certainly not taking the offer.** I am not going to be paid to blow up this sub with posts about other stocks besides my precious GME. Like, I literally don't care about them. And nothing will ever pay me enough to mislead or distract my fellow apes. There is no other situation like GME, we all know that. I just got enough information from them to validate that this is a very legit offer, and now I have it. It's my own confirmation bias that all of this is legit, it's not just in our heads. + +GME has already changed my life. This community is literally like family even though I don't know a single 1 of you apes. I want to help, I want to support, I want to educate, I want to boost morale. Paying me to spam distractions during such a critical time? + +Your downvote bots didn't work. + +Your hateful, personal comment attacks didn't work. + +Your onslaught of sudden followers didn't work. + +Your paranoia inducing messages didn't work. + +Your self harm report didn't work. + +AND THROWING MONEY AT ME WON'T WORK. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +🦍🤝💪APES TOGETHER STRONG BABY🦍 🤝💪 + +**STAY EVER VIGILANT MY DUDES** ✌ + +🗣Shout out to my real followers I'm buying you all drinks on the Moon 💎💅💕 + +Edit: I was told on the phone that I would post in the same subs I'm already active in. So while this is an opportunity to be an "influencer", it is meant for me to post about *the companies that pay them, in the subs I am already established i.e.- Superstonk, WSBNew, and GME* + +I should also note that their company clients can directly choose my reddit profile and my "expertise/reddit presence" and hire me from a list of these "influencers". They mentioned having contact with 7 other people on "stock reddits" (lol). Idk who I didn't wanna ask 🤷‍♀️ +EDIT: I've spoken with u/Blanderson_Snooper and we've had a good conversation. I believe their post about me was authentic, though flawed, and they've edited it significantly to remove the inaccuracies, which I appreciate. I still believe that there is some group working on various "hit" pieces, and which is clearly trolling my comments and automatically downvoting them. But I respect Blanderson for being intellectually honest when I cleared up various misconceptions and misunderstandings, and I'd much rather just move on from all of this and continue to focus on market structure reforms. I've unblocked them and will continue to engage constructively to answer any questions. + +Hi - over the past few months there has been an organized smear campaign being run against me. While there have always been people questioning my motives (despite a decade of actions to the contrary), since forming We The Investors, this movement has become more organized. I noticed a significant uptick following my meeting with the SEC Chair. I'm happy to answer any questions from this sub - I'm as transparent as I possibly can be. I haven't responded to the ridiculous and absurd allegations though because I do not believe that this smear campaign cares about the truth - it has one goal, and that goal is make you question my motives and actions. I invite you to judge everything for yourself - my track record is perfectly clear and consistent. + +This is flowing through a user I had blocked a couple of months ago for their repeated trolling of me, and accusations that had no basis in truth. The so-called "DD into Urvin LLC"  which is nothing but a stream of random google search results strung together to paint a narrative. This is confirmation bias at its best - look for a series of dots, and connect them in such a way to strengthen whatever argument it was that you wanted to make. For example - there are not 2 CEOs of Urvin. There are actually 3 Urvin entities, and Urvin LLC has absolutely nothing to do with Urvin Finance Inc.! This is the kind of thing that is very easy to clear up when someone is interested in the truth, but ignored or dismissed when they have a different motive. I've never scrubbed my social media, and never disguised or hidden the truth of the entities I'm involved with. It's all been on LinkedIn this entire time! + +The very idea that I would be in any way associated with Citadel at any time since I left in 2009 is so absurd that I don't even know how to respond. It's been a constant accusation against me, including in the halls of Congress in 2012, and on this sub repeatedly since I began engaging. If I were motivated by money, I can assure you I would have never left HFT, let alone chosen the path that I did. But all of these claims are from people who have clearly no idea what they're talking about, and clearly have never even read a privacy policy before. They call me out for things that are in both GME's and Computershare's privacy policies (in fact ours is much stronger than theirs), and are standard in any privacy policy you can find on the internet. They said that a relationship with S3 or Apex is not in question - but there are absolutely no relationships whatsoever with either of those companies. They are mis-reading, misunderstanding, or most likely purposefully misrepresenting innocuous connections or statements. There are so many instances of this in the so-called DD, that it's impossible to address them all. Nearly everything in that post is factually incorrect. + +Once again, it is not surprising that this smear campaign has accelerated since our meetings with the SEC. I am happy to answer any question in this thread in terms of my business practices - I'm an open book, and there is absolutely no data or benefit flowing to any other company, and especially not to Citadel, S3, Apex or anyone else. But I'm only interested in engaging in good faith - not with those who are simply out to smear me - because there is no amount of truth or fact that will change their minds. If there was, they would have answered their questions with some simple google searches and been on their way. There's nothing hidden or insidious happening here at all. +Hi, I'm a teenager looking to get into stocks to make some money and I'm unsure if I should invest in typical blue chips or go with penny stocks? I start with about $500 and trade with either ETrade or Scott trade. Any tips from anyone? +This is kind of part 3 of what's been happening so here are some links to the first 2 posts as well as a link to the original post on WSB about this story: + +Original post - +[My broker (Questrade) wants me to sign an NDA saying I won't talk shit about them after offering me $1200 USD as compensation for losing $50000 from outages](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/frz0fp/my_broker_questrade_wants_me_to_sign_an_nda/) + +Post #2 - [Questrade Legal Contacted me](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fsnubq/contacted_by_questrade_legal_team_for_permission/) + +Post #3 (Original post on WSB)- [Got a call from police regarding "threats" to Questrade last night... I was read some of the posts you guys made on their sub](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ft80y4/got_a_call_from_police_regarding_threats_to/) + + +So in the original email where they mention legal action they accused me of threats, extortion and defamation. + +>"We ask that you remove these posts immediately and you cease to use social media to post defamatory and misleading statements about Questrade in an attempt to extort funds from the company. If you do not remove these posts, you are put on notice that this will become a legal matter. Our legal department are already investigating two prior posts you made where you stated that you were ready to "burn down the building" as well as making the following statement: “ if I can’t get my money back I’ll be sure they lose an equal amount in whatever way I can.''" + +Obviously the quotes in the email don't provide full context but the cops understood that and read it back to me. + +Paraphrasing here but this is the comment regarding burning down the building: + +>What is going on with Questrade support? This is such a joke. It pretty much feels like all they're saying is "too bad so sad" and "fuck you". Honestly getting tired with this.. I feel like I'm going crazy... getting ready to burn down the building. What a joke + +So obviously I was saying it as a figure of speech in a time of frustration and not serious in anyway regarding it but regardless Questrade took it to the police. + +The other comment about "if I can't get my money back I'll be sure they lose an equal amount in whatever way I can" was meant as in them losing potential/current client's commissions. Obviously I didn't mean any harm which I clarified in my reply to the original email. + +Basically the police cautioned me and said they don't think I was serious. + +The call I got was around 1:30am EST and I asked if they usually call this late and the officer said that they were just getting to it cause they had more pressing matters (assuming COVID19). + +Just a waste of police resources in general if you ask me. Especially during this time. Like the guy from the TradeDesk said to me in an email... + +>"To keep things in perspective, the world is reeling from a tragic situation. Thousands of people have lost their lives. Our staff have been working around the clock to help our clients get through this unprecedented crisis. In response to our genuine attempts to find an amicable solution, you have threatened and insulted our staff. I urge you to think about your actions." + +I would urge Questrade to think about their actions. + +The officer also asked me if I was the one writing posts about "Questrade killing someone's wife"(?) and I think something about Hitler but I was able to clarify that it wasn't me writing those posts and it was other people who were likely upset. + +Just find it pretty ridiculous that police had to waste their time going through screenshots sent by Questrade of their sub... + +Not sure why they would waste the police's time with this but it ultimately resulted in nothing. It was, in my opinion, obvious that those comments were both said out of frustration and I removed them (along with all comments) at the request of a Questrade employee as well anyway. + + +I think what people should take away from this though is how poorly Questrade is treating its clients. If I were to phone them and be upset I don't want to be scared of potentially having a criminal charge brought forward on me because they took something I said out of frustration seriously and involved the police. Honestly think their handling of this matter has been incredibly unprofessional throughout. Upsetting to think this was a company I used to admire and recommend to countless people. + +Even just a few days before all this happened I was recommending them to friends - https://imgur.com/a/DHVOHhE + +It's amazing to me how poorly they've handled all this and how in less than 3 weeks my opinion of them has done a complete 180. + +What a joke. + + +I'm sure you guys worked this out for yourselves but just want to point out how it's weirdly convenient that they saw the "threats" last week but the police only contacted me after I refused to take down my posts about them... (15 hours after the deadline Questrade gave me to take down the posts) + +Proof I was contacted by police since some people think I am lying about it- https://imgur.com/a/rVU3KfR + +________________________________________________ + +Guys if you want to help get the word out and potentially save other Canadians from signing up with this nightmare of a broker **please tweet this thread at Questrade or Business Insider or marketwatch or bloomberg or anyone else that can write about it.** I don't have an active twitter account so can't really do it myself but would appreciate it immensely. + + +I think it's important for Canadians to know that they could potentially get contacted by the police if they say something to their broker out of frustration or anger. + +People should know what kind of company they are dealing with. + +You can also email the News Tips email on sites with links to these threads if you want. + + +Thanks guys. + +edit: + +To contact cbc: + +https://www.cbc.ca/mediacentre/contact + +and + +gopublic@cbc.ca + +______________________________ + +Edit 2: To those saying I'm in the wrong. I can agree that I shouldn't have said some things but what I want to point out is this + +I understand that but if they were worried about the threat why did they wait until after my second round of postings to bring it up? + +Why wasn't I contacted by police sooner regarding it. + +How is it that police only contacted me about 15 hours after the deadline they gave me to take down my posts had passed? + +If there was a concern of safety they had screenshots of the posts Thursday March 26 at 5:53 pm EST at the latest. + +How is it police only contacted me April 1st at 1:16AM EST? + +13 hours and 16 minutes after the deadline had passed. + +Police also had screenshots of posts made on Mar 30 and Mar 31. + +Obviously I can't know but it seems like they only went to the police after I refused to take down the posts. + +Here's a more clear timeline: + +Step 1 - lose money + +Step 2 - post about it on /r/Questrade (and only /r/Questrade) on every single post and warn people + +Step 3 - mod on /r/Questrade asks for my number + +Step 4 - TradeDeskGuy calls me to talk to me + +Step 5 - TradeDeskGuy says he's gonna see what kind of compensation he can get me + +Step 6 - TradeDeskGuy asks me to remove my posts while he is "going to bat for me" (no joke he really said that) + +>While I review your complaint below can you do me a solid and remove repetitive posts on wherever you posted online. You can keep your original complaint if you wish. Your entitled to vent your frustration but there are limits to that. We have thousands upon thousands of happy clients which you were probably one of prior to the outages and you spamming the boards is giving your bias. It is not a fair representation of Questrade nor does it help when I go to bat for you. + +>I was told you already apologized to those responsible for responding to social posts so I thank you for that. + +>Thanks + +Step 7 - I comply and delete even my original complaint + +Step 8 - Receive 1200USD offer + +Step 9 - Decline offer and post about what happened everywhere I can think of + +Step 10 - Get asked to remove my posts again (by TradeDeskGuy): + +>I have just been notified that you have posted information from our private discussions on Reddit. These discussions were confidential and constituted good faith attempt to resolve your complaint. Your Reddit posts are inaccurate, misleading and contain defamatory content. As we discussed, you incurred a loss as a result of trading in high risk options, which you failed to mention in your posts. + +>We ask that you remove these posts immediately and you cease to use social media to post defamatory and misleading statements about Questrade in an attempt to extort funds from the company. If you do not remove these posts, you are put on notice that this will become a legal matter. Our legal department are already investigating two prior posts you made where you stated that you were ready to "burn down the building" as well as making the following statement: “ if I can’t get my money back I’ll be sure they lose an equal amount in whatever way I can.'' + +>If we do not receive your confirmation by 12pm on March 31, 2020, that you will discontinue posting defamatory content on social media, you will leave us no choice than to commence legal action. + +>To keep things in perspective, the world is reeling from a tragic situation. Thousands of people have lost their lives. Our staff have been working around the clock to help our clients get through this unprecedented crisis. In response to our genuine attempts to find an amicable solution, you have threatened and insulted our staff. I urge you to think about your actions. + +Step 11 - I don't + +Step 12 - Mar 31 12pm passes + +Step 13 - 13.5 hours later I get a call from the police regarding the "threats" that I had deleted in Step 7 + +I think Step was the wrong word to use in all this but does that clear up the timeline for you? +I’m a millennial who has been slowly clawing his way out of the lower class for the better part of 10 years now, and am finally in the position to look at buying a first home. Other than the fact that I still probably won’t be able to afford one at this point, my main gripe (and a common one I’ve heard among almost everyone in my peer group) is that everything is gray. Specifically this ugly vinyl gray mock-wood flooring that is in literally almost every home I’m looking at. I just want to cry out “please STOP”… Like if I’m going to have to pay $250k for a 2 bedroom shoebox in OMAHA in 2022 the last thing I want to do is rip out the new floors you just put in and repaint everything :(( + +/end rant +Hi all. My younger brother died last week at a very young age and he has invested quite a lot in ETH. I am unsure of whether I have in possession of all of the investments, but I have a nano ledger s and some encrypted information on several USBs (he had always said he sent those to me for backup purposes). I think he used truecrypt to encrypt these USBs. There is also a SSD with what I believe would be information relating to the account. Obviously I don't want to get hacked or lose access to the money he and my family spent on. Any advice? Any way I can decrypt the information on the USBs? I know that nobody on the internet can be trusted and I do have some family/close friends who are knowledgable with computers/coding, but I would like to know more before handing over such precious information and possibly lose access or currency in the process through stupid mistakes. + +TL;DR: brother died suddenly, need to ensure safest/best way to retrieve ETH and transfer it to an account of my own or withdraw it somehow. +Typo in the title. My bad. Proof read the post, not the title. + +# This might be a bit long, but I promise you it's important. + +# What is going on? + +Hundreds of thousands of individual investors have been directly registering shares of GameStop in their own name. Taking the shares that are held by their broker and asking for the real share that they are supposed to be holding and then taking that share and registering it under their own name, giving the investor full rights to the share, proof of ownership, and removing the brokers ability to lend those shares out to someone looking to borrow shares. + +This has been going on for over a year now and the number of shares being pulled out of brokers and into the names of the individual investors is only going up. + +This can only happen until ALL shares in the float are registered and accounted for. + +# Why is it a big deal that GameStop is reporting these DRS numbers? + +The fact that GameStop is filing their quarterly reports to the SEC and these reports include the running count for the total number of shares Directly Registered by individual investors is **THE ONE FACT** that anyone in the world of investing should pay attention to. + +This is a **100% real, proven, fact** reported to investors and filed with the SEC. These numbers do not lie. + +Let me repeat. **THESE NUMBERS ARE REAL.** + +*Note: the latest proven amount of DRS'd shares from GameStop is 71.3M. The new number will be reported in early December on the Q3 report. This is expected to be somewhere between 88M-92M.* + +Current estimated shares DRS'd provided by: [https://www.computershared.net/](https://www.computershared.net/) + +# The DRS Indicator + +I believe we are beginning to see the introduction of a new fundamental bullish indicator that I like to call "The DRS Indicator" + +This indicator is very simple to understand and just works on basic supply and demand mechanics. The more shares registered in peoples names, the less likely they are to sell those shares meaning supply is dropping and demand for those is rising if this DRS indicator % continues to go up. + +Feel free to suggest another name, or add to it why it is so bullish! + +# What's so UNPRECENDENTED about this? + +This has never happened before in the history of our stock markets as we know them. There has never been a time where technology has been at a point to allow so many individuals to communicate and educate each other on topics. + +There are 304,516,136 share of GameStop issued. Retail has currently registered approx. 88 MILLION shares. + +Note: 304 million is the total amount of shares outstanding. + +If you include the mutual funds, ETFs and institutional holding. Which are also real reported ownership that leaves only 66M shares remaining. Those would be shares held in brokers for individual investors. + +Do you really think every single person who owns GME has registered 75% of their shares?..... + +Like I said in my previous post that measures out to about $3 BILLION DOLLARS and counting.... +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yjatms/the\_3\_billion\_dollar\_subreddit/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/yjatms/the_3_billion_dollar_subreddit/) + +The amount of shares registered by individuals has been rising at approx. 15-20 MILLION per quarter. + +What this means is that there will come a day when retail has locked up the ENTIRE float of GameStop. As that number gets closer to 100% more and more will pile in and speed up the process as others begin to understand the gravity of the situation at hand. + +**Once that happens, we truly are in unprecedented waters in the market as we know it.** + +# Quick side note: What the heck is short interest? + +Refer to this for an explanation: [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp) + +Lets stick with verifiable facts here. I'll let others in the comments talk about FTD's, naked shorts, etc. + +The reported short interest in GameStop is current at approx. 54M shares. Meaning 54M shares have been borrowed and sold to someone and those will need to be purchased back and delivered to who they borrowed it from at some point. + +If the amount of shares left in the free float is lower than the shares on short, the ones borrowing the shares will have a very big problem on their hands. + +# Why you should not ignore this event. + +You may have heard things about GameStop around reddit as posts from here sometimes make it to all and you may just scroll past it thinking to yourself that those people are all crazy. + +But I come to you with facts provided to you directly from the company through regulated filing requirements by the SEC. These numbers aren't coming from some people on the internet. + +You don't need to understand all of the inner workings of the markets like a lot of people have learned over the past year and a half. You just need to sit back and do some critical thinking and try to think about the gravity of the situation unfolding. + +**THESE ARE THE VERY REAL FINANCIAL MARKETS**. This is a real event, literally happening before our very eyes with real information. This is an event that has never happened before in the history of our markets as we know them. + +If you have zero interest in investing, or the markets, or anything of that sort. Then I will say, **just remember what you read here so when you see in the news that individual investors registered the entire free float of GameStop in their name and some insane event happens, you can say "hah! I remember reading about that"** + +# One final thought I will leave you with. + +These 88M registered shares do not represent the **TOTAL** shares held by retail in the entire world at one moment. These 88M share **ONLY** represent the number of share individuals went out of their way and took time out of their day to contact their broker, send in the required information, and initiate a transfer to Computershare to have these shares registered. + +This process sometimes involves a fee, anywhere from free/$5 at most brokers up to around $300 at some international brokers. Personally, I paid $300 to register my shares. + +You should be able to find out how much it costs at your broker here or with a quick google search. + +**However, it is easier with a lot of other brokers, either being free or as little as $5. $300 is on the high end of things.** + +ALSO, many countries and brokers do not allow investors to DRS their shares. Some countries have tax exempt trading accounts that a majority of individual investors use. + +For example in Canada, we have TFSAs (Tax Free Savings Accounts). We can hold stock in these account and all gains on holdings are exempt from being taxed. This is similar to an IRA. + +However, the shares held in a TFSA cannot be DRS'd without taking them out of the TFSA and then losing the tax free status on the shares. + +There are many more reasons why individuals around the world have not DRS'd shares of GME yet. + +So make some assumptions and do some calculations to use the reported DRS count from GameStop to extrapolate out what you think retail also holds in their accounts at their different brokers. + +Do you think maybe 30% of every single share held by retail has undergone the DRS process? + +88M / 30% = 293M total shares held by retail. + +Have some fun with your own estimations of what you think the percentage of people DRS'd their shares is and extrapolate those out. I promise it will be fun! + +​ + +# TLDR + +Individual Investors have gone out of their way, sometimes paying money to register shares of GameStop in their own name. So far registering 88MILLION shares. + +This is not stopping(increased at an average of 15-20M shares every 3 months) and this number does not even represent all of the shares held by individuals at their broker. This only represents approx. 200,000 accounts that have registered some or all of their shares and this number has been verified by GameStop every quarter. + +​ + +# Don't miss out on the biggest event to unfold in the history of the stock markets as we know them. Participate in it, or watch from the sidelines. You are an individual. Make your own individual choice. + +*Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Please correct me if I got any info wrong and I will update.* + +*I look forward to seeing what other information and facts or what discussion you can all add to this!* + +**Cheers!** +I'm up more than 110x so I just sold a chunk and used it to pay off my mortgage. I now own 100% of my own apartment and am completely debt free, thanks to a rather small bitcoin investment 7 years ago. Even if Bitcoin were to crash down to zero, my life is going to be so much easier now that I essentially have more money every month. This is a life changing event for me. +I have been trading very successfully for 10 years in global stocks with funds in the USD 10-50 million range and a few large investors are interested in investing with me. + +I would therefore like to set up a new investment fund that they can invest in. + +What are the best options for a 'turnkey' solution. I.e. where the legal work and trading platform is provided by a large credible institution, and I can just focus on making the investments and managing the personal relation with the investors. +There’s a lot of new people on here that don’t really understand the play going on right now on both sides and I felt like we need to clear up some misconceptions so you can make your own decisions. + +**Why no spike today?**: + +First of all, we can’t know on what day the Squeeze happens / they cover their shorts. +All we know is it has to happen sooner or later since the hedgefunds are losing millions if not billions EVERY SINGLE DAY THEY DON’T COVER.  +They use several tactics to delay it, but they can’t circumvent it. +They’re bleeding, and all the retail investors holding are slowly sucking the blood out of their fat ugly bodies. + +It might take just a few days, or weeks... +But eventually, when they cover, WE retail investors get to set the price. +That’s why you keep seeing 10k (or 69420$) is not a meme. Because it’s not. + +We also know they’re down BAD. Why? +Because they’re attacking us any way they can and wasting millions doing so. + +So let’s see what tactics they are using: + +**Short ladder attacks**: + +What is a short ladder attack? +The big hedgefunds are putting in lower and lower bid prices between themselves. There is little to no volume on those trades, and since no one can buy, it "looks" like the stock is plummeting. It’s only effective if we would sell. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9ay2s/short_ladder_attack_explained/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la6vcb/wall_street_plan_trying_to_psychologically_scare/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +Just look at the volume. People are not selling: +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la5upr/dont_panic_and_just_look_at_the_fucking_volume/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +**Infiltrating WSB and other social media**: + +Here are some random screenshots I took of WSB Synth. Notice the people saying to jump ship and to take GME gains and invest into FORD. Obvious shills. There’s tons of them. Always new, or old accounts that suddenly post again. All those people came in just in time when the short ladder attacks started, just to make it look like people are panic selling and convince us to sell: +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lahqex/notice_the_two_obvious_melvin_employees_time_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +**Manipulating the Media**: + +Here are some News channels caught lying / manipulating the market: (SEC if you read this...) +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la8n7o/fake_news/ +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la6e16/cnn_back_off_this_is_a_lie_literally_a_5_second/ +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9runf/the_silver_squeeze_is_a_hedgefund_coordinated/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la8x7g/bloomberg_now_insisting_gme_is_old_news_ha/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + + +Now let’s get some clarification on **SILVER:** + +There is so much misinformation swirling around concerning Silver. People don’t seem to realize 3 things: + +1. **Silver is not a get rich quick move. Silver is a LONG TERM HOLD move.** GME is a risky short term play. So YOU decide what makes more sense to get in right now. (Personally I sold all my stocks to buy GME today. YOLO)  +2. The actual Silver sub on reddit does not advocate buying SLV, nor do most of them believe SLV is the move to make.  +3. The hedge funds would love for you to go all-in on Silver and ignore the GME opportunity. Every dollar spent on SLV instead of GME is a double win for them, since SLV is inverting GME and they own a ton of Silver and that’s why they’re pushing this narrative in the media.  + +SLV inverting GME: +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la4mog/stop_buying_slv_you_smooth_brained_retards_its/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +The amount of paper contracts or IShares SLV available is basically infinite. Physical silver is a rare physical commodity with a finite supply, and a very low supply of retail sized bars/rounds/coins. + +**IF** you want to go into silver for whatever reason, buy physical. But that’s just my retard opinion. + +**SILVER ISN’T “REDDITS NEXT BIG PLAY“.** You guys need to realize the GME situation is very unique and WSB is not, and never was about starting crazy short squeezes. GME is a rare opportunity where the big guys actually fucked up BIG TIME. + +Silver squeeze not happening links: +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la1o04/there_is_no_silver_short_squeeze_happening_none/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/la1xhf/guess_who_owns_tonnes_of_slv_options_fuck_citadel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf +https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9runf/the_silver_squeeze_is_a_hedgefund_coordinated/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +Well. Let’s see to what extend they fucked up exactly:  + +**Short Version:** +The short version is that a review of the **'strategic fails–to–deliver'** data indicates that institutional insiders may have counterfeited a massive number of Gamestop shares which is why they tried to stop retail investors from buying more shares on Thursday. + +There are are **71 million shares** of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via 13F filings that they own more than **102,000,000** shares (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). That is already 30,000,000 shares more than even exist. + +On top of the shares reportedly owned by institutions, retail investors may currently hold 50+ million shares (counting both long holdings and call options – both ITM and OTM). + +Once you include call options, **retail investors may already hold more than 100% of GME (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company)**. This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system. + +Long version here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec_doj_60_minutes_public_data_suggests_massive/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf + +**At these levels it’s NOT about the price, it’s about the number of shares in the hedgefunds possession. That’s why they want you to sell so bad.** + +🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎🤚🏼💎 + +Last but not least I’m holding because this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. I’m holding because I hope to see a better future and I’m holding for all you out there. +To the Moon or zero. + +🦍🦍🦍 APES. STRONG. TOGETHER. 🦍🦍🦍 + +Disclaimer: +This is not financial advice, I’m literally an ape. I just like the stock. Do your own DD and avoid the fake new and/or resurrected accounts here and the manipulative Media. + +Edit: wanted to post a few new posts but it seems like I’m shadow banned. No one can see my posts. +I don’t know if I got caught in some kind of spam filter. +u/only1parkjisung can a mod confirm this? +Further, what are your biggest pet peeves with your peers. What do you see other economists saying or doing that makes you think, “we’re all full of crap” + +Spill the tea +I'll try to skip the stuff you will see all over the headlines: + +* Greg and Ajit were at the front table with Buffett and Munger but didn't speak much +* Buffett's opening statement was shorter than usual and kinda all over the place (very unusual) +* Buffett's hand shakes uncontrollably as he hold's up one box from the 11 tons' of See's candy on location +* Buffett's annual letter was printed before the $40+billion spending spree end of Feb-MidMarch (Buying opportunity came as a surprise to them too) +* NO Berkshire shares were repurchased in April (probably b/c they spent so much on OXY and Allegheny) +* Buffett kept making analogies to farm land. (kinda wouldn't be surprised if BRK starts buying some) +* Very little talk about inflation. Finally when asked, Buffett says nobody knows what inflation will be next year or 10 years from now +* Best Question of the night imo - Why are you losing out to Union Pacific and Progressive? Greg dodges the question and Ajit basically says Progressive does everything better than Geico (Buffett jumps in and says Ajit has added more value to BRK than the entire market cap of Progressive) +* Greg says they deal with BILLIONS of cybercrime attacks daily +* Buffett says he doesn't want to say anything that will get Berkshire in trouble a few times through the day (Seemed really guarded in his responses) +* They don't like passive ETF/fund managers pressuring them to change board/corporate structure +* Buffett warns about how tribal people are acting. He doesn't think it's good for society + +Overall, I was most disappointed that Buffett didn't walk through some value investing insights like he normally does. No balance sheet walk throughs or earnings/cash flow examples this year. Just a lot of "This is what we bought because it was cheap" sort of talk...I guess that's perfect for this sub after all. +Shockingly high, wondering what the % would be if they had been able to buy homes at 40%-50% less than what they ended up paying. + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/63-of-millennial-homeowners-regret-buying-home-survey-213314873.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/63-of-millennial-homeowners-regret-buying-home-survey-213314873.html) +My mother wants to invest in my brother future who is 15 now and in high school. I don’t know much about finance investing money stuff like that but I’ve been trying to research what are some beginner ways to start investing in his future. We thought about opening credit card under my mother account like minimum balance that he can’t excesses but idk how that works or if it’s actually a good idea. Many have mention plans like 529 college, custodial Roth IRA with fidelity. My mom doesn’t make lot of money as she only works in fast food place but she wants to help build something to help him out. +We do this once a year in this sub and I think now is the time. + +Please post the mutual funds you have invested in and also share your rationale behind selecting that fund. + +This would not only help people who have just started investing in mutual funds but also to those semi experienced people. We can adjust our portfolios accordingly. + +It would be helpful to mention the number of years you are planning to invest in the selected mutual funds and weather you have done SIP or Lumpsum. + +Thanks in advance. + +PLEASE UPVOTE THE POST TO GET MORE VISIBILITY. IF SOMEONE CAN PIN THE POST FOR A DAY THAT WOULD BE GREAT TOO. +New Jersey fined Uber $649 Million for Saying Drivers Aren’t Employees. New Jersey has demanded that Uber pay $649 million for years of unpaid employment taxes for its drivers, arguing that the ride-hailing company has misclassified the workers as independent contractors and not as employees. + +A audit uncovered $530 million in back taxes that had not been paid for unemployment and disability insurance from 2014 to 2018. Because of the nonpayment, the state is seeking another $119 million in interest. + +&#x200B; + +[https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/14/nyregion/uber-new-jersey-drivers.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/14/nyregion/uber-new-jersey-drivers.html) +There is such a stigma on this sub (and Aus in general) about buying an apartment with your mortgage money that it's barely even bought up, even with all this discussion about housing affordability. + +Realistically, the physical land constraints of Sydney and Melbourne mean that continuing to crank out freestanding houses just isn't sustainable, and major cities throughout the world are all far more apartment-heavy anyway. + +At some point people will just need to accept if they want to live in one of these cities without insane incomes that apartments are the way to go. + +And so the emphasis should not be just this futile ranting about trying to get houses in the cities to be more affordable, but for there to be a *massive* upgrade in the standards/quality of apartment builds that allow for a far greater scope for growth in supply. + +That's not to mention the environmental benefits of apartments vs. detached housing either... + +Until we have apartment blocks with proper amounts of living space, properly soundproofed walls/windows, public green space nearby etc etc. all as standard, the public attitude to "apartment = bad" and thus trying to pump massive mortgages into freestanding houses (and continuing to inflate the prices even more) will never change. +I updated my dividend chart today after buying a few shares this week and I’m making $100.06 a month if you split the payments evenly per month. I’ve been waiting for this milestone since I started 2 years ago when I was 18 and I really feel like I’m making progress now. I don’t have anyone to share this with but I’m really excited about it. +Every page I follow says to invest money, to not rely on your 9-5, make money while you sleep. I’m 37 but I started late. Got my first real job where I plan to retire from at 35 and barely paid off my student loan last year after sending almost my whole paycheck every month to finish fast. So this past year has really been the first time in my life that I have money AND it’s all for me. As much as I try to save, there’s always something I want to do. Mostly travel and beauty stuff. I tried investing on Robinhood but lost all $37. Not very motivated to try again. I know it might be different if I go to a bank and pay someone else to do it, but is it really a sure thing?! If it is, why doesn’t everyone do it?! So confusing. Especially every time I feel bad that I’m spending my own cash instead of “investing” and “making money while I sleep,” as all those memes say you should do. No idea where to start. Compared to my family, I’m already ahead in the game by even just having no debt, using cash and having a degree that’s paid off. But apparently there is a better way. 🤷🏻‍♀️ +... and why it is so cheap. + +I mean, this was a company highly regarded ONE YEAR AGO! With a large user base, and huge streams of income. But now it seems to be demonized. + +Ok, I do understand all the headwinds it faces like: + +1. the privacy updates from Apple and Android; + +2. the company will have huge outflows of cash due to the investment in the building of "the metaverse"; + +3. the management's social image; + +4. the user growth slowing down. + +BUT: + +1. Even with all this turmoil the company is still able to generate large sums of income; + +2. I don't think the company hasn't maxed out its ARPU; mainly ex-USA; + +3. User growth from emerging markets is STILL growing; + +4. THE. BALANCE. SHEEEEET. - Like... It's one of the best IN. THE. WORLD. And now that we're seeing some uncertainty for the future, I think having a strong and stable balance sheet is one of the best things to come out victorious at the end. + +-- + +So, please, for real, give me your best bearish case and reasons not to buy the stock at nearly 10PE. +In 2020 I decided to take positions in penny stocks largely from Canada after diligence showed me that Canada would benefit disproportionately from the energy shift / green push. All the signs are showing that when push comes to shove, this will be true. + +What I have been seeing every day is that Canadian stocks are being aggressively sold down even as the larger market is ascending, including the American small-cap markets. When I look at the trading data, I am seeing that anonymous sellers are doing the vast majority of this selling. + +Even as insiders from all of these companies are buying large amounts of their own company, the aggressive selling continues. + +Some of these companies (Earth Renew, etc) are either profitable or nearing profitability, have numerous catalysts and/or backlogs, appear to be scaling aggressively. Meanwhile, they are trading at well below normal P/Es for companies with their prospects. So to suggest it's just hedge funds liquidating their investments is odd, as selling these would not be rational. + +So I am just wondering if someone who knows the Canadian securities markets well can tell me what the most likely cause of this is and what, if anything, will be done about it? +A video TLDR of what's been going on with GameStop since last January and why direct registration matters: + + +# [GameStop: A Long Story Short](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGWN1-I8Kac) + +https://preview.redd.it/cn13ltn3vyo81.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f897c62d6fc0ca501a00f8f16522c64748e2aac + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ +Looking for the Daily Thread? + +[New Reddit / 3rd party app link](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&sr_nsfw=&restrict_sr=1&t=day&sort=new) \- sorted by past 24 hrs to only show current thread + +[Old Reddit / 3rd party app link](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search/?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&sr_nsfw=&restrict_sr=1&t=day&sort=new) \- sorted by past 24 hrs to only show current thread + +[Official Reddit app link](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair%3A%22%F0%9F%93%86+Daily+Discussion%22&restrict_sr=on&include_over_18=on) \- presorted links break the search function on the official app + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +https://preview.redd.it/vbnwvor459p71.jpg?width=1432&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cabc77b66f8488d38ce717de804ad7aa08008f09 + +Many of us still have doubts about this dinosaur of a company. I know I sure did until recently. The goal of this post is to provide information that will give you the confidence to direct register as many shares as you are comfortable with and explain how selling works with Computershare so you can decide if that is the right strategy for you. Let’s begin by recapping what we know so far. + +**TLDR: Computershare is legit and potentially the safest place to hold your shares. It is also possible and very easy to sells shares with them, but that might not be the best strategy for your personally. Decide for yourself what percentage of your holdings you would like to keep there, but make sure you also have shares in a trustworthy broker to be able to sell during the MOASS.** + +=================================================================== + +# DO NOT FORGET TO ADD YOUR SHARES TO THE DRSBOT TALLY! + +Simply leave a comment on any "Computershare" flaired post like this one with "!DRSBOT:numberofshares!" and read the guide below on how to use the other bot commands! + +=================================================================== + +# List of Guides & Resources for Using Computershare + +=================================================================== + +[SuperStonk Computershare AMA Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare_ama_part_1_video_link_with/) + +[SuperStonk Computershare AMA Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r5enlt/computershare_ama_part_2_video_link_transcript/) + +[Dave Lauer CS AMA - text based](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qpn2z1/drs_ama/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +[NEW FAQ - Computershare just posted this to help answer some of the most common Ape questions!](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies) + +[How to use the DRS BOT that is trying to tally how many shares have been transferred to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qap4je/drsbot_4x_now_online/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[THIS IS THE WAY - How to use the recurring purchase option in CS called DirectStock and how to route purchases in Fidelity through IEX](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qho200/this_is_the_way_the_most_effective_route_to_buy/) + +=================================================================== + +**Account Creation, Buying and Prep** + +[u/Criand DD on Computershare and why it is so important](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prpum9/computershare_and_drs_is_the_way_it_ignites_the/) + +[How to open a Computershare account and purchase shares (US ONLY)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prvovo/new_computershare_account_via_new_purchase_visual/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[How to convert your newly purchased shares to "Book-Entry" (POTENTIALLY UNNECESSARY)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/po7bk8/computershare_book_entry_easy_mode/) + +[List of brokers that allow for transferring your existing shares to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppb8u6/the_drs_list_mercy_mercy_me_gme_aint_where_it/) + +[How to Computershare (SMOOTH BRAIN EDITION)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/prvknj/how_to_computershare_a_simpletons_guide_for/) + +**Transferring for US Apes** + +[Using a slow broker? Consider speeding up the process by using Fidelity as a middleman](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pzzvae/use_this_one_weird_trick_to_stop_drs_delays/) + +[Transferring from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, Ally Invest, Firstrade, M1 Finance, Merril Edge, Public, Charles Scwabb, Webull, Wealthsimple and Interactive Brokers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmsq3u/transferring_shares_to_computershare_a_stepbystep/) + +[Transferring from Commsec, DNB, Disnat, Danske bank, Hatch, Lynx.nl, Nordnet, Questrade, RBC, Revolut, Saxo, Scotia iTrade, Stake, Swissquote, TD Canada, Tradestation and XBT](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ppw723/transferring_shares_to_computershare_part_2_a/) + +[Transferring from Chase/JP Morgan, E\*Trade, SoFI, Rabobank, Tastyworks, Tradezero, and Vanguard](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pt6ya6/transferring_shares_to_computershare_part_3_a/) + +[IRA Transfer Update! Looks like it is possible using this method but its a huge PAIN. Hoping to find a better solution soon](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q2qflz/update_ira_transfer_to_computershare_fyi_you_can/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[You can DRS from Revolut / DriveWealth -> CS directly, without third parties!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r9jwj9/you_can_drs_from_revolut_drivewealth_cs_directly/) + +**Canadian Ape Guides** + +[For any Canadian apes who have had trouble or been refused the ability to DRS their shares. This is a link to a Demand/Letter of Intent post that includes supporting documentation to ensure each Canadian ape has the ability to direct register if they choose to do so](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qevdrp/a_live_document_is_born_canadian_apes_assemble/) + +[Tips for Canadian Apes with TD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q2qr0w/for_canadian_apes_if_you_have_a_td_brokerage/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +**International Ape Guides**[Newest IBKR transfer guide with update on the process](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rhokcn/to_anyone_drsing_from_ibkr_on_mobile_please_read/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) + +[Most recent IBKR guide that allows you to initiate DRS request yourself](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qg26li/ibkr_now_lets_you_drs_your_shares_to_cs_all_by/) + +[What to do after receiving your letter from CS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qri7jq/nonus_guide_wut_do_after_the_first_computershare/) + +[Updated International guide for expedited transfers and potentially even purchasing shares directly!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pu1mam/international_apes_computershare_us_drs_transfer/) + +[How to transfer to CS for European Apes using IBKR as a proxy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptqxys/european_broker_to_computershare_step_by_step/) + +[How to purchase shares through Computershare for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q415wd/10_steps_to_drs_and_buy_directly_on_computershare/hgod67r/?context=3) + +[Transferring out of Revolut to IBKR (then eventually to DRS)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q3c1lc/starting_a_revolution_transferring_out_of_revolut/) + +[How to purchase shares directly through CS for UK Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q16ge7/uk_ape_buying_directly_from_computershare/) + +[UK Apes guide to transfer from Hargreaves Lansdown to IBKR to ComputerShare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qkg11n/uk_apes_guide_to_transfer_from_hargreaves/) + +[General guide on transferring for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pmu19h/international_apes_can_transfer_shares_to/) + +[Visual guide on transferring for International Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptqxys/european_broker_to_computershare_step_by_step/) + +[Computershare guide for NZ Apes](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q8jzqp/what_to_expect_after_a_drs_transfer_and_a_buysell/) + +===================================================================**IRA Transfers - Adding more soon!** + +[DRS your IRA the YOLO way](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/r7hzl1/drs_your_ira_the_yolo_way/) (Small tax hit) + +=================================================================== + +If you see any posts that belong in this list please comment or send me a chat! + +=================================================================== + +# What is Computershare? + +Computershare is an Australian based transfer company with offices in 20 countries. They are over 40 years old and are the official transfer agent for not only GameStop but large corporations such as McDonalds, Johnson & Johnson, Coca Cola and AT&T. Even though they offer some broker-like services it is important to note they are NOT A BROKER. They do however have 12,000 employees dedicated solely to keeping accurate records for their 75 million customers. + +In 2003 Computershare acquired the brokerage Georgeson Shareholder Corporation which gives you the ability to purchase or sell shares directly through them. They were not built to buy the dip or day-trade which is why those of us used to app-based, commission-free modern trading unreasonably judge their platform as archaic. What they were built to do is slowly and repeatedly invest in a company, and the irony we have slept on this for so long is tragic. You can’t purchase a specific amount of shares with them. You can however choose a dollar amount to make as a one time or recurring investment. When you really think about it, this awkward process seems to be almost perfectly built for most apes that are just buying more shares every paycheck. Unfortunately, we have become so accustomed to following every price movement of the ticker and buying the dip we forgot one of the most important principles. It’s all a dip. + +[\(sideways guy approved\)](https://preview.redd.it/rpjnu1n959p71.jpg?width=728&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19790bf2c403b01dce9b306004c3e8394928983c) + +In fact if you go off the average share price every 2 weeks from March till September and had purchased shares automatically through this program, your cost basis would be close to **$191.10.** If you have done better than that you should give yourself a solid pat on the back. But really, what's a few dollars in a trade of this magnitude? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/p1vbvohtpap71.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc3bb02e0fbc3c8e4164501660ff30aeff5a3908 + +=================================================================== + +# DTC STOCK WITHDRAWAL + +What began as a place to hold your infinity pool shares or a way to get the best odds possible to collect a hypothetical NFT dividend is quickly evolving into potentially the best place to hold the majority of your GME shares. It took a while for all this information to make its way through the community but once apes started actually transferring their shares to Computershare we were greeted with a glorious sentence in our transaction history. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vxw34yo4pap71.jpg?width=1527&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=928b1893a9ee8aa502ae252c4468ab00eb77b290 + +There has been a lot of FUD spread about CS on this. When you direct register your shares they are indeed withdrawn from the DTC and control by Cede & co. You are now not just the beneficial owner but the registered owner of these shares as explained in this graphic. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zemnbozhtuq71.jpg?width=1500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ab4cf269d3c5dd5d0d08c76da17a6d184105d73 + +This feels like an appropriate time to bring up one of the most aggravating pieces of information I recently learned. It’s literally illegal for companies to talk about or promote direct registration of shares. This is justified of course by the DTCC arguing that if stock issuers were made aware of DRS then they would have no reason to exist. + +Why on earth wouldn’t we want an entirely vestigial private corporation with a monopoly on almost every stock transaction, one that makes money by charging fees for the privilege of using their unnecessary company dictating policy? There couldn't possibly be a conflict of interest there right? Are you mad yet? + +[https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/34-47978.htm](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/34-47978.htm) + +*“DTC states that* ***issuers to do not have continuing ownership rights in shares they have sold into the marketplace and therefore cannot control the disposition of shares already registered in DTC's nominee name by directing that those shares be surrendered to the transfer agent or by restricting their eligibility for book-entry transfer*** *at DTC.44 DTC contends that* ***attempts by issuers to control their publicly traded securities are improper and may constitute conversion***\*. DTC states that by purporting to exercise the rights of the shareholders, issuers are\* ***interfering with the legal and beneficial rights of DTC*** *and its participants with respect to securities deposited at DTC and with DTC's obligations under Section 17A of the Act.”* + +They even go on to basically admit that they aren’t required to do anything to curb naked short selling and the best way to take care of it is for investors to direct register their shares. + +"*DTC disagreed with the commenters' contention that it* ***had an obligation to take action to resolve the issues associated with naked short selling*** *because those issues arise in the context of trading and not in the book-entry transfer of securities. DTC pointed out that* ***if beneficial owners believe that their interests are best protected*** *by not having their shares subject to book-entry transfer at DTC, then* ***they can instruct their broker-dealer to execute a withdrawal-by-transfer, which will remove the securities from DTC*** *and transfer them to the shareholder in certificated form."* + +We have become well aware that price discovery is not properly reflected in lit markets. We know the reported float is incorrect. The worst part is we are far from the first investors to face this seemingly insurmountable problem. Have a quick look at a few select quotes from a comment to the SEC over 15 years ago. + +[https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/decosta122203.htm](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s72303/decosta122203.htm) + +“We are of the opinion that the rampant "naked short selling" of stocks and the associated epidemic of failures of "good delivery" and loans made to mask "failures to deliver" that we are currently experiencing, threatens the very core and integrity of our financial system.” + +“Naïve investors assume that the SEC has created a "level playing field" on these trading venues. They assume that the regulators are professionals, that they know every dirty trick in the fraudsters' playbook, and could recognize a fraud while it is being perpetrated. These investors really think that they are buying "real" shares from a "real" shareholder, perhaps across the country, with a market maker acting as the middleman.” + +“Investors also do not have a clue that their own broker/dealer, who owes the investor a fiduciary duty of care after being paid a commission as an agent, is "renting" out their purchased shares to the mortal enemy of the client's investment. The investor has been "sold out" by his own brokerage firm. There isn't even any sharing of the rental income from the loan.” + +“The naïve investor does not realize that there would be consequences for his brokerage firm if it were to "break ranks" and do the right thing. The Wall Street community and various co-conspirators have made this issue into a "Wall Street versus investors" battle.” + +=================================================================== + +# Why Direct Registering YOUR shares is important + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/1muxdjb7pap71.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce4c8f55d108a97d707d21a112bf9bec83f733ca + +We now know what we are up against and who Computershare is. Let’s put it together. First we need to identify a very important distinction between “Street Name Registration” and “Direct registration”. According to the SEC: + +[https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/investorpubsholdsechtm.html](https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/investorpubsholdsechtm.html) + +***"Street Name" Registration*** *— The security is* ***registered in the name of your brokerage firm*** *on the issuer's books, and your brokerage firm holds the security for you in "book-entry" form.* + +***"Direct" Registration*** *— The security is* ***registered in your name*** *on the issuer's books, and either the company or its transfer agent holds the security for you in book-entry form.* + +Whenever you purchase a share with any broker, whether it's Robinhood or Vanguard you don’t really own them and can’t 100% control their lending status. I am not trying to spread FUD about brokers. They are a necessary evil and some are certainly much more trustworthy than others but at the end of the day, they are NOT your friends. They are playing both sides of this trade. There is a massive financial incentive for them to lend your shares to short sellers and historically speaking they have done everything in their legal authority to lend them. Registering your shares in your name and having them held on the books of GameStop is the only guaranteed way to prevent this from happening. + +It’s also important to recognize that if you believe GameStop will be issuing an NFT dividend even trustworthy brokers like Fidelity have stated they can not guarantee delivery. I can’t link the thread due to our no brigading policy but here is their official statement on it from their subreddit. + +*“Fidelity's platform currently does not support holding cryptocurrencies or receiving dividends in the form of cryptocurrency. If a company issues a dividend in the form of cryptocurrency, then other arrangements would need to be made in order to receive the dividend. In the past, special dividends have been paid as stock representing value held in cryptocurrency or NFTs, and not a direct issue of cryptocurrency or NFTs.”* + +From that same SEC page: + +*“Direct registration allows you to have* ***your security registered in your name on the books*** *of the issuer without the need for a physical certificate to serve as evidence of your ownership. While you will not receive a certificate,* ***you will receive*** *a statement of ownership and periodic account statements,* ***dividends***\*, annual reports, proxies, and other mailings directly from the issuer.”\* + +=================================================================== + +# What Now And What’s An Exit Strategy? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/b8d4sv1hpap71.jpg?width=1374&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51240350388eb426476dbbb1e54745371b8dee1f + +So everything sucks and there is no right answer? Kinda. If you feel like you are being overloaded with information, I feel you. We have spent the last year learning so much about this fraudulent system it’s hard to know what the right thing to do is. I wrote this post because I had questions and I wanted answers. I still haven’t found all of them but I was able to learn enough to personally believe that Computershare is an integral part of this whole saga. + +Before we wrap this up the final piece of the puzzle is what it looks like to SELL with Computershare. We all know that account creation and buying shares is a convoluted, confusing and slow process. This is just because most people that would use a system like Computershare don't need it to be simple or fast. CS batches buy orders together and does not execute them immediately. Remember most stocks are nowhere near as volatile as GME and waiting a few days to execute a purchase order is not a big deal. + +The good news is there is indeed a light at the end of the tunnel. Selling through Computershare is extremely easy and fast. I have committed the ultimate sin in the name of science and for the first time since this all began **I SOLD A SHARE** so **YOU DON’T HAVE TO**. Please forgive me Papa Cohen, it was for the greater good. + +So yes, there are fees associated with selling. We are so used to commission free trading we have forgotten that “if the service is free, you are the product”. It’s a little annoying to see these fees but when the share price looks like a phone number I don’t think it will bother you. When I placed this sell order I instantly got a text confirmation. So while buying takes longer than we would prefer, selling takes no time at all. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/i30rbyh9pap71.jpg?width=4000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4d5fc42bce074945c1900dbc6d90b70583f9a112 + +It’s also important to keep in mind you do not need to and others have presented a case for why you should not sell through Computershare. If Computershare does indeed prevent new DRS once the float has been registered you would be selling real shares to your mortal enemy. We haven't verified this yet but it’s certainly worth considering. If you choose to transfer some or the majority of your shares to CS you should absolutely be selling the shares you have left in your brokerage first during the MOASS. The ratio of distribution is entirely up to you. Some apes are doing 10% in CS and some apes are doing 99% in CS. Some apes can’t transfer any shares to CS because of their brokerage’s insane fees or logistical limitations. Some apes like myself have a lot of shares in a Roth IRA and can’t transfer them out due to early distribution tax implications (although I think I found a solution to that you will find at the bottom of this post). Some apes just trust the age old “Buy & HODL” and don’t want to explore “Buy, Register & HODL”. + +Remember, everyone here is making their own financial decisions based on their own research. Calling someone a shill because they haven’t transferred to CS or haven’t transferred as much as you is TOXIC and you should be ashamed of yourself. If you believe CS is the way, provide data to change hearts and minds. Don’t shame people. Personally I have bought shares in CS and done 2 transfers. One using the form from Fidelity and one using the phone call system. I can verify that both work. The form was a pain and the transfer took 5 days. The phone call was a breeze and the transfer took 4 days. No matter which broker you use, when you initiate your transfer make sure to get a confirmation number that is logged in their system. Just in case there are any issues this will allow you to call back and quickly get an update instead of starting all over. + +=================================================================== + +# Final Thoughts + +If you made it to the end of my rant, thank you for reading. Take everything you read, including my post with a grain of salt. My brain was as smooth as a baby's bottom 9 months ago. I have grown a few wrinkles now but I am just a guy on the internet. I am trying to provide data and leads for you to do your own research and come to your own conclusions. One piece of advice I am very comfortable giving is you absolutely should be diversifying your holdings across multiple brokers. We are in uncharted territory. There has never been and probably never will be another situation like GME. + +Many have come before us and failed. That said, never has there been such a dedicated, motivated and powerful group of shareholders like us. Our collective intelligence is a force to be reckoned with. I am so incredibly proud to be a part of this community and constantly in awe at the content put out by this sub. + +I have included links to the best guides I have seen explaining how to use Computershare at the bottom of this post. I would also like to drop in a link to a company that u/MyPlayProfile found that will let you transfer your IRA to them and they will direct register your shares. Bear in mind due to how retirement accounts work they are registered in the name of the plan for the benefit of you. That’s not perfect but its just how retirement accounts work. I spent some time on the phone with them and was able to confirm that at least the shares are indeed withdrawn from the DTC. I am in the process of making an account and moving my Roth IRA with Fidelity to them. Once everything is settled I will make another post describing the process. + +Here is the company. If you call, ask for Ryan Fischer. He has been awesome and has a lot of history he can share about the events in 2008 that was the genesis behind their IRA DRS service. + +[https://www.camaplan.com/direct-registration-of-stocks-drs-protect-your-securities-investment-against-brokerage-defaultmisconduct/](https://www.camaplan.com/direct-registration-of-stocks-drs-protect-your-securities-investment-against-brokerage-defaultmisconduct/) + +&#x200B; + +# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# What We Still Don't Know + +Here are the questions that I still have about Computershare and I encourage you to try and find the answers for your own personal benefit and for the benefit of this community. + +**What happens if/when Computershare registers the freely traded float or even the total outstanding shares?** + +([Comment explaining why Computershare might not be legally allowed to register more than the outstanding shares](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/comment/hdzpwz7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) + +**What would it take to get Computershare to publicly state how many GME shares they have registered?** + +(I have already spent hours on the phone with them trying to get this or to find out what it would take to get this) + +**What are the dollar limits on placing limit sell orders?** + +([Comment explaining the value caps and $ limits on sell orders. Need to look into this more and see if I can verify with CS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/hdzpi0o?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)) + +([Comment explaining what the sell order limits are and why we shouldn't be worried about them](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/he6g39u?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)) + +**Have Ryan Cohen and other insiders at GameStop direct registered their shares with CS?** + +(I have always just assumed this was the case but its probably worth verifying if that is possible) + +=================================================================== + +# Other Resources for Computershare + +**Great write up by** u/_Exordium **explaining another reason why DRS is important. It removes any risk your shares might face during a broker default** + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptxbiq/broker\_defaultsbankruptcy\_sipc\_insurance\_and\_your/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptxbiq/broker_defaultsbankruptcy_sipc_insurance_and_your/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +**A video I recently made on the importance of "Broker Diversification":** + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_kuElFX5QrI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kuElFX5QrI) + +=================================================================== + +# Current DRS Bot Tally as of 11.25.21 + +https://preview.redd.it/p6wws9upds181.jpg?width=839&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4eefaf7157b60ce1c78d04ff29d5dd64b81373a8 + +&#x200B; + + +This is a portion of some of my recent inflation DD from researching Michael Burry/Scion's recent 13F plays. I thought it was an interesting investing strategy and wanted to share it here in case anyone is interested. There's more research over on [r/Burryology](https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/) (specifically [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/comments/nepc7l/the_bull_is_gasping_major_themes_from_michael/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)). + +***Inflation, inflation, inflation! (21%+ of current holdings)*** + +If you've been following [r/Burryology](https://www.reddit.com/r/Burryology/) since its inception many eons ago (a little over a month ago), you likely guessed that the next 13F would reveal Burry's strategy for hedging and/or profiting off of the inflation situation. Would he buy/hold REITs as the hedge? What about gold, oil, and other commodities? Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)? + +We now have the answer. + +Here are the direct inflation plays: + +*Put options on* [***Ishares 20+ year treasury bond etf (TLT)***](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031915/overview-tlt-etf.asp) *-* *12.7% of current holdings* + +*Probable Burry thesis:* rising inflation over the mid- to long-term will lead to the need to increase interest rates thus making these 20 year bonds less attractive. + +*Some context:* The U.S. Treasury announced plans to start issuing 20-year treasury bonds in January 2020. The benefits to 20 year treasury bonds are that they're relatively safe, their value could increase if interest rates drop, and they're relatively liquid. The cons are that they're over a 20 year period (meaning you lock in very low interest rates at which you get paid), inflation may occur over that 20 year period and lead to an increase in interest rates that you'll miss out on, and rising interest rates in general hurt the value of these bonds ([link](https://www.mybanktracker.com/blog/investing/20-year-treasury-bonds-307834)). + +*Call options on* [*Proshares trust ultrashort lehment 20+ year treasury etf (TBT)*](https://www.zacks.com/funds/etf/TBT/profile) *- 4.1%* + +Probable Burry thesis: this is the same 20+ year treasury bond mentioned above so the strategy is likely the same. The difference here is that it's a call on an inverse bond ETF. + +*Context:* The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses that correspond to two times the inverse of the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. (from Zacks article linked above). + +*Put options on Ishares* [russell 2000 growth](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/russell2000.asp) *etf (IWO) - 3.1%* + +*Probably Burry thesis:* There are two possibilities here. One is that the Russell 2000 is overpriced having outperformed the S&P 500 at 81% vs 43% since last May. The other is that inflation will lead to a recession that does actual damage to the economy which effectively makes a short on the Russell 2000 a bet against the overall economy. + +*Context:* The Russell 2000 index measures the performance of the 2000 smaller companies that are included in the Russell 3000 index which itself is made up of nearly all U.S. stocks. It is seen as a bellwether of the American economy because it measures the performance of smaller businesses focused on the domestic market. It's considered more cyclical than the larger indexes which is to say that it follows the economy tightly. + +*Others:* + +1. *Shares of* *Proshares trust ultrashort lehment 20+ year treasury etf (TBT) - 0.5%* +2. *Call options on Proshares ultrapro short 20 + year t (TTT)* + +***Out with the REITs*** + +One of the more interesting observations from Scion's Q4 2020 13F was a sleuth of positions in various REITs. He had a little over 17% of the portfolio in REITs: + +* Uniti Group Inc - 3.98% (now 0%) +* The GEO Group Inc - 3.51% (now 0%) +* RPT Realty - 4.05% (now 0.5%) +* Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc - 2.81% (now 0.1%) +* CoreCivic Inc - 3.07% (overall net increase in the total position, now 0.7%) + +In Q1 2021, REITs accounted for just 1.3% of Scion's holdings. He exited out of Uniti and GEO, trimmed Urstadt and RPT Realty, and increased the CoreCivic position. All-in-all, it seems he's bearish on REITs serving as the best vehicle for profiting off of inflation compared to shorting the 20 year treasury bond. +Covers a lot of ground as usual- cryptocurrencies, China, renewable energy, and, of course, Costco + +[https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/market-now-is-crazier-than-the-dotcom-era-says-berkshire-hathaway-vice-chairman-charlie-munger/news-story/57f87655d1d16575a371925be7cffa8b](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/market-now-is-crazier-than-the-dotcom-era-says-berkshire-hathaway-vice-chairman-charlie-munger/news-story/57f87655d1d16575a371925be7cffa8b) +QYLD is a classic example of something becoming over hyped after 2018 and specially during Covid. Everyone and their dog bought it. It has crashed terribly and now with so many people selling it, it seems to be declining more than what is warranted. + +I am worried same might become true of SCHD and JEPI. Both have stood their ground very well this year so far but both are being hyped or praised every single day. Could this result in extraordinary buying of these two resulting in inflated prices? And what will happen if markets plunge another 10-15% from here? Both will decline heavily? + +What do you think? +A 44 year old friend on his path had a stroke. He likes to eat rich at client dinners, drink and work hard. Never did much physical activity. He knows he is not healthy but he thinks he’ll take care of it later when he is retired and has time. Unclear how much time or function he will have. + +Last month, a colleague who prided himself on how thrifty he was by driving a 1992 Camry almost died to a new driver in a WRX crashing into him. He would be much better off today if he was in a new Volvo or new anything. I read in this sub sometimes about how proud people are they’re running their old junkers despite how much money they have. + +Don’t be a penny wise and a pound foolish. People think it'll never happen to them but look at the numbers on what the greatest risks are to the average well off person. It's cars, obesity, and heart disease. In order to fatFire, you need to make it there and you want to make it there in good shape. After all, we are all doing it for quality of life. + +edit: I'm not saying don't live your life, live a life worth living and take some chances, it's fun. However, it would be smart to reduce risk on easy things to reduce risk on. Personally, I indulge in track days with a little BMW that goes pretty fast and it's an adrenaline rush. But on the street, I drive pretty slow and leave it on auto-drive with a big German SUV. +Alright boys and girls. If you're struggling to become a "trader" listen closely.. I trade for a fund and here is some solid advice from someone who does this for a living. Plus, I've had a few whiskey's so I'm more inclined to offer advice than I normally am.. Don't judge me - it's Friday night here.. + +I'm probably going to receive flak for this from "traders", but again, I get paid full-time to do this shit so either listen or don't. I don't care. + +Basically, I'm sick and tired of watching a bunch of fakers offer a bunch of fake advice to a bunch of rookies trying their best to learn how to trade. I was taught by a mentor who had been doing this shit for 30+ years and I wouldn't be where I am today if it wasn't for him so I want to pay it forward. + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #1: Risk Management.** + +This is THE only way to make money. The best FX-specific funds in the world are right no more than 60-70% of the time each month AT BEST. Some are only right 40% of the time and still make money.. HOW? Risk management. Risk only a % of each trade and trade like a sniper- take only the most high probability setups and and move your stop once it goes in your direction. If it reverts and stops you out, it means you're wrong and you don't want to be in the trade anyway! + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #2: Have a target** + +Yes, the turtle traders "rode the trend".. but they also traded in an era where once a derivative broke out of a range it kept going. Now days you have false breaks/fakeouts/washouts, sideways action etc. If you don't have a target, how do you know where to get out? Don't worry if you get out way too early - as long as you get your profit. Which brings me to; + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #3: Don't get FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)** + +Don't chase a trade. Period. If you miss the entry, who cares. You're trading a market that's open 24/5. There's always another opportunity. On the contrary, if you get out of a trade too early - who cares!? You got your profit, now let it run and look for a reversal. OR, if if consolidates, look for another move in the same direction. DON'T GET CAUGHT UP ON WHAT-IF'S! + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #4: Stay Zen** + +This sounds hippy AF but trading will take your mind to dark places you didn't even know existed. Stay zen. A full loss? No problem. 4 losses in a row. No problem. This is part of trading. Stay zen and keep your emotions at the door. All strategies will experience a draw-down. If you don't want that and you don't like losing then you're in the wrong game. You NEED to be able to handle losses. + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #5: Make your own analysis** + +Don't listen to "hot tips", analysis or anything from other sources. And please, for the love of god, DON'T PAY FOR TRADE ALERTS!!!! DYOR (Do Your Own Research), make your own analysis/bias and **stick to it**. This includes ignoring the "pro's". No one is right 100% of the time - if you go against the "experts" who's to say it's not the one time they're wrong!? I once held long a Euro trade when every news source in the world devalued the Euro... I was right, they were wrong - that was one of my largest monthly commissions that month.. I also once held a crude trade when everyone, including CNBC was talking about tanking crude prices - I made 10% on my portfolio that month.. + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #6: Get realistic** + +Oh, you've got $1,500 to trade with? Yeah.. you won't be trading full-time next year. Sorry. It doesn't work like that. Anyone claiming to make 100% of their portfolio in a few months is lying. Either that, or they have BUT they won't keep it up. If they do, they'll go down in history as the best trader in the world. The average FX-specific fund averages 4-7% per month. At my fund, we aim for 5-10% per month. This is top 1% in terms of "funds" / "professional traders". If you're a retail trader you can probably make adjustments to trade a little differently and maybe improve your performance. But again, if you have $1,500 to trade, don't expect it to be $200,000 in 12 months. That's not how it works. Why do it then? Well, all you need to do is beat government bonds (4.75% .. ?) and you've made a "successful investment". How do people become rich from trading then? .. well, they manage money of course.. if you manage $1,500,000 and make 7% and keep a commission, you'll earn far more than 10% on a $1,500 account.. + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #7: STOP LOOKING FOR THE HOLY GRAIL !!! It DOESN'T exist !** + +Want proof? Fine.. I have gone through and taken examples of how it doesn't matter what strategy you have, you CAN be successful. So, here are SEVEN different strategies on the SAME CHART (gold) that are all profitable. The point being that in the same bullish move it doesn't matter what strategy you use, there are multiple opportunities to enter. + +Strategy 1: + +https://i.redd.it/wrwl1170xcx21.png + +Strategy 2: + +https://i.redd.it/fx9gqma3xcx21.png + +Strategy 3: + +https://i.redd.it/8tli4yv5xcx21.png + +Strategy 4: + +https://i.redd.it/grbcy2n7xcx21.png + +Strategy 5: + +https://i.redd.it/98siamy8xcx21.png + +Strategy 6: + +https://i.redd.it/i3fjz2taxcx21.png + +Strategy 7: + +https://i.redd.it/thgudhwcxcx21.png + +**Rule #8: Stick to your strategy** + +This is important. If you encounter a string of losses - DON'T CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY. Just because you're going through a drawdown doesn't mean your strategy no longer works. This is where risk management comes in.. if you're only risking 2% per trade you can sustain a drawdown.. if you're punting at 10% per trade you're quickly going to burn out. + +&#x200B; + +**Rule 9: Stay true to your analysis** + +You're either right or you're wrong. If you're in a trade and it goes your way then reverts, are you going to close or hold? Once you enter a trade you shouldn't be "guessing" you should know "it's going to go to here" - you're either right or you're wrong. Don't be scared by a simple pull-back. + +For example, in the situation below, if you enter where it says entry and you expect it to reach your profit target.. would you close when you see the choppy action in the red box? A rookie would get scared and close. A professional would hold knowing that they're right and it will eventually hit their profit. If it doesn't, it means they're wrong and that's what their stop is for - the most they're willing to risk. If you're never willing to take a full loss, you'll never be willing to take a full win. + +https://i.redd.it/lk818xn28dx21.jpg + +&#x200B; + +**Rule #10: Find your style** + +Are you wanting freedom? Then don't scalp. I spend no more than 10-15hrs per week looking at charts. That's how I like it. I won't want to be like some of my colleagues where they left a full-time job only to.. look at a chart full-time.. What's the point!? + +But hey, if you're into that stuff and you like watching each tick, then good luck to you. If you're new to forex, start on a daily or 4hr then work your way down to intraday. Most strategies can be slightly altered from a daily chart to suit a 5min chart. + +&#x200B; + +**Conclusion** + +There's some good reading for ya. I'm now more than tipsy so should probably go drink some water. If you have any questions, ask away. Don't expect a quick reply. + +Remember, it takes years to learn this shit. Don't beat yourself up if you hit a 'slump', just keep chugging along and you'll get there in the end! +I’ve been in foster family my whole life and a year ago i had to move out and live on my own. +Got a job, invested in good pc and started mining eth. Over time i invested some of my income to Eth and today i have 2.4 ETH. +Since i have job i can take a loan from the bank to buy my own apartment, the thing is i need to have 20% of apartments value (about 10k usd) and the other 80% is covered by bank. And today i accumulated that sum of money. +AND I’M SO FUCKING HYPED I WILL HAVE MY OWN PLACE AT 22 LETS FUCKING GO!!! +Anyway i wanted to thank you all on this and ethmine sub since i learned everything about crypto here, and wish you best of luck in life! +People in my circle don't talk about financial problems. Only me really. My family is upper middle class. They've been going on vacations and stuff and talking about how good they're doing. They specialize in industries that actually thrive under the pandemic. I specialize in buisness travel and tourism. + +I'm just anticipating what the next blow to me will be. I was doing good in 2019. Now I'm probably below the poverty line. The past several months nothing short of dumb luck has kept a roof over my head. Month after month. + +Let's talk about what this pandemic has done to us. Please. I feel so alone. Let's just air out our problems. +A hopefully slightly reassuring reminder to readers of UKPF that the average UK salary is £25k. It is £30k if you only look at those in full-time jobs. Keep in mind salaries are 32% higher in London. +Those on incomes of £100k and above are comfortably in the top 2% in the country. + +Only a third of those aged 25-34 own their own home. + +The average savings held are £9,633, for those aged 25-34 it's £3,544. + +Casual readers might look on here and think they are hopelessly behind their contemporaries - you're not, 'normal' is a lot different to what you might think. You're not doing so bad. Stay positive. +I am a complete novice in Econ. I am from India and my awareness about Zillow came yesterday when I was hearing a podcast called "Finshots Daily" (Indian) where it explained how Zillow was using algorithms, AI and advanced stuff to predict prices but ended up losing 500 million US dollars and firing 2000 employees. + +I have asked on this sub before about how effective the Mathematical side of Economics is (I heard of Econ from being involved in Politics and knowing how Austrian school rejects Maths completely in Economics saying it has no ability to predict humans) and the response I got was positive - that Math is just a tool, that it can be effective in cases like Renaissance Tech, that Economics isn't just about Macroeconomic forecasting, etc. + +But now we have this - a firm using the latest technologies, the most advanced knowledge of Economics, Finance, Maths and Data Science, and still losing so much money. Should we start looking for alternative approaches to Economics? I heard that after 2008 Recession, mainstream Economics was heavily criticised and modified. Does it need a complete overhaul and a completely new approach? +I am dictating this on my phone as I drive home, so please excuse any weird burbage. + +Even though you happen to watch the movie about 2008, Dr Burry is not your friend. Just because he happened to capitalize off of the stupidity of others in his field, he is still very much a part of that industry. Remember that in the wild a shark will have no problems eating another shark. + +Any sort of significant disruption that GameStop may cause could at least indirectly harm his bottom line. Recognizing this you understand that he is probably not a fan of our cause. + +He may be motivated to discourage us from our Buy and Hodl directive. Keep that in mind as you read his tweets before he deletes them. + +Please stop with the baseless idolization of people even remotely involved with this. It is not healthy for you, and you may find yourself disappointed when they turn out to be not what you thought they were. +I only found Economics Explained, and after watching 2 videos and skimming through the video library, it became clear to me, that this person had some strong opinions about anti taxation, which doesn't do the width of economic literature justice, and isn't very scientific. + +More specifically I am specialised in Spatial and Transport Economics and would love to see people talking about this as a quick way to explain to people what I mean. +Hi guys, I find that a lot of you might be curious as to how capital gains work. If you already know how it works, no need to be condescending and look down on those who don't. + +Say you are **SINGLE** and bought 30 shares of GME @ $100. Your cost basis here would be $3000. Your hypothetical income each year is $40,000, excluding the capital gain/loss. + +**Scenario 1: You Sell for a Profit** + +It appreciates to $400 a share and you sell all 30 of your shares. + +$400\*30 = $12,000 was the amount you got after you sell. + +To get to the taxable amount, we subtract your basis of $3,000 from the $12,000. + +After doing so, we reach $9,000. + +You've held this stock for less than a year, which makes it a **short term capital gain.** + +For short term capital gains, we simply include this income along with your ordinary income to be taxed at the current rates. For a hypothetical taxable income of 49,000, you would simply need to set aside $1,967.50 of your $9000 gain to get right with Uncle Sam for the current tax year. + + +On the other hand, if you were bullish on GME from the start and bought the stock a year ago and subsequently sold after a year, this would be a long term capital gain. Your $9,000 long term capital gain would have a special tax rate much lower than that of your ordinary income. + +For the purposes of this example, here are the single tax brackets for capital gains income: + + +>0% +> +>$0 to $40,400 +> +>15% +> +>$40,401 to $445,850 +> +>20% +> +>$445,851 or more + +Our total taxable income here (including the capital gains) is 49,000. That makes our tax bracket 15%. + +With a 15% tax rate, you would have to set aside $1,350(9,000\*.15) to get right with Uncle Sam. + +**Scenario 2: You sell for a LOSS** + + +GME's stock price plummets to $0. Since the stock is now worthless, might as well "sell" for 0. + +Your initial investment of $3,000 is now wiped out. Gone. However, Uncle Sam allows you to deduct up to $3,000 each year in Capital Losses against Ordinary Income. + +In this example, our $40,000 of Ordinary Income would be decreased by the amount of the loss we sustained (up to $3,000 each year). + +This leaves you with $37,000 of taxable income after YOLO'ing it on a meme stonk. + +Feel free to ask any questions you might have down in the comments below. +Hey, +This is not a rant from an Eth holder as I am more of a daytrader and I observe some of the currencies. I don't own any eth. + +Each time there is an indecision (end of a triangle, tightening of bollinger bands, testing of a support line, or whatever strategic moment): + +-Giant sell wall with absolutely nothing to gain from being here comes from nowhere + +-"Painting" happening on GDAX with bots spaming many small sell order (famous 0.001627) for each buy order, this has an anxiogenic intent as the history looks entirely red. + +-Multiple limit sell order appearing then disapearing (the same ones) creating the illusion of very active selling motion. + +This is done to induces a psychological habituation that Eth will dump when BTC dump and Eth will not rise when BTC pump. + +Since it happens to be a recurrent manipulation, I do think now that it is NOT tactical but a long term strategy to make the second capitalisation, to STAY the second one by a long way. +I really think there is a currency war going on and some people are too naive to figure that, and they think "tech" and updates is the key to success, and as you can see nowadays it is not the only thing that matter!! + +I just cannot be the only one to have observed this. + + + + +Edit: +https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/79q6h7/why_is_someone_using_a_script_to_sell_small/?st=j9elic0r&sh=78e48b1a + +Some Proofs: +This screenshot shows the end of a triangle (decisive moment), testing a support, giant sell wall appeared, discouraging everyone and the resistance broke. +[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/N5sFGKS.png) + +On this one you can see the selling script, but I wittnessed more relevant actions on GDAX with a script who counterattacke like 6 small selling for a buy, you can also see the giant wall on that one: +[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/1FKi2Jl.jpg) + +Ha finally found an old screen from GDAX. For each buy order the script spaming 5-6 irrelevant (0,50 USD) sell order: +[Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/kyTGf01.jpg) +One of the biggest problem of our generation is impatience. Since our birth and the advent of modern technology, we have only seen wait times getting shorter. Faster delivery of products, faster access to information, faster change of professions, vocations, etc. + +Although improved access times help us make the most of our lives, it also have its own psychological downfalls. One of the most obvious is reduced attention spans. I personally cannot focus on one thing for more than 15 minutes until it is extremely entertaining such as a Netflix thriller or a PS5 game. Apart from reduced attention spans, we have also become more impatient. We need to see the results quickly and immediately else we feel this weird twitch in our hands to do something. A lot of times this results in us spending more energy trying to figure out why something's not occurring "quickly" enough instead of doing something fruitful. + +One of my relatives is in his 80s and is probably a millionaire. He gets lakhs of rupees as dividends every year. When I met him, I asked him how he managed to get such a solid stream of passive income? He said, he just kept accumulating quality stocks all his life and never once sold them regardless of the economic scenario. Keep in mind that this is a guy who's lived at a time when they used to wait for that one hour every week for Mahabharat to play on TV unlike ours which have instant access to Netflix. Patience is something that was ingrained in him since his birth. + +I kept accumulating HUL and HDFC before the pandemic as these are household names and quality stocks that most people swear by. However, I used to check kite everyday and would feel the need to "re-balance" my portfolio because some other stock was doing well. When the pandemic came, I continued holding onto these stocks. Later I saw RIL overtaking these stocks, I sold my HDFC and HUL holdings and bought RIL at around 2k. Now RIL is continuously dwindling and I again feel the twitch to do something or "re-balance" my portfolio. Net net I have made a loss by dealing in stocks because of my impatience. + +I kept investing 5k every month in nifty junior bees and that's the only thing that has made me money. Part of this is because I can't do anything to change the composition of Nifty Next 50 and just need to hold on to it. + +TL;DR - Ideally speaking, young people should directly deal in stocks given our higher risk taking capacity. But keeping our impatience into consideration, we would be better off dealing with the index. +I currently make $100k and spend about 1 hour commuting round trip by car to my job. I just got a job offer for $125k with a new company, but it will be around 2 hours of driving per day. + +An extra hour a day of driving will mean extra gas, mileage on my car, and time away from my family, but $25k seems like it is worth it. + +What factors am I not considering and what would you do? TIA + +Edit for clarification: my current commute is around 30 minutes each direction and my new commute would be around 1 hour each direction. +I could really use Reddit's advice this morning... + +I started a new job at the beginning of September. I was brought on at a base salary of $70K - with promises of commissions. They estimated my annual compensation to be about $105K but said that it had the potential to go up to around $130K. + +At the beginning of November, a man in a similar (but more senior) role turned in his notice. He's a director level, while I'm at a manager level. I was congratulated by my boss for this unexpected promotion and assured that this was a very good move for me and that I'd be making "a lot more money". He even referred to it as life changing. I asked if my job title would be changing and he said no. + +It took him a few weeks to put my comp plan together. Yesterday, he called me in and gave me rave reviews of my performance so far (to be fair, I've mostly been in training) and highlighted some goals for 2020. And then he discussed my exciting new comp plan... + +He's cutting my base salary to $60K (which is supposedly what the director's base salary was). And estimating my total compensation to be $104K. + +He acted absolutely flabbergasted that I wasn't excited about it. I told him it was less than he had estimated my previous role - and he said that he had re-ran the math and I would have never gotten close to that in commissions, he had originally run the math based on outdated data. He said that these commissions are basically guaranteed, as in this role, I'll be getting commission based on overall company performance rather than on just my own work. + +I asked him for a night to think about it - and he told me yes, but that it wouldn't change anything. And if I wasn't happy with that, that we could shake hands and go our separate ways. + +I don't know what to do. Does anyone have any suggestions? I can't afford to be jobless, but man - this feels like a bait and switch. + +UPDATE: +I took the director out for drinks. Oh boy. Apparently he's leaving because they cut his commission by 70% - and told him his new annual compensation estimate was exactly what they've told me mine would be. Yikes. I truly appreciate all of the advice and help! It's encouraging when others validate what you're feeling & fearing. + +UPDATE 2: +Just thought I'd give an update, albeit a lousy one. + +I met with my boss - and we had a long conversation. He kept talking in circles, ultimately echoing what he had said the day prior. I asked him if he would split the difference with me since the commission was 'basically guaranteed' (base $85K, cut my commission in half). He said absolutely not. I told him the only way I'd be comfortable with this is if he gave me the title. He said no. Finally, we agreed that I'd stay and take the position - and we'd have a formal meeting in 6 months to re-visit my pay. Again, all I had heard about my performance was that it was exemplary. Absolutely no complaints. + +Friday afternoon, he put a '90 Day Evaluation' on my calendar for late this afternoon. + +&#x200B; + +And today, he fired me. + +&#x200B; + +He said that I just wasn't the right fit and that he'd talked to others in the company 'and that it was unanimous that I didn't belong there. I told him that I was surprised, as I'd had such rave reviews last week. I asked if there were specific examples where I 'wasn't the right fit' so that I could improve professionally. He said, " Yes, but I don't like to do that on the day of. It's too emotional. I'd be happy to have lunch or coffee in a few weeks and go through it all, then." + +&#x200B; + +So, yeah. That's the terrible conclusion on that story. I don't think I'll even be able to qualify for unemployment since I was fired. And my first mortgage payment is due next week. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks for all your help. +# One Step Back + +Two weeks ago today I gave Mods notice of my intent to take an indefinite hiatus and I stepped back from my Mod responsibilities, but not away from this Community. Today that self-imposed hiatus comes to an end as I make the somber decision to resign my role as a SuperStonk Mod.  I am also coming out of the shadows to share with you all my Authentic self: Who I am; What I believe in; and Where I hope progress, conviction and the current of life takes us all.  I do these things not out of ego, but because to not do so would create a duality - a duplicity - that I don't want to live in, or with - a Stonk me and an IRL me. So, I must step back from my role here, to step forward to serve Apes with my Work going forward.    + +[I'll Drink to That](https://preview.redd.it/dtbkkh8j7h471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff99e91d499663cd149bf12a6d716cebcbf7b03c) + +# Fuck the FUD. Thank you, Mods. + +After this week's concerted FUD campaign against Mods I wanted to take a moment to peel back the curtain and let you know what it's like to be a Mod at SuperStonk.  First, the work Mods do for this sub is intense and what we face, literally, seems beyond sane at times. The bizarre, shifting, divisive and calculated FUD campaigns are never ending. The stakes are high. Everyone's emotions are on edge.  With this backdrop, Mods serve Apes tirelessly day in and day out to do justice to the faith this Community puts in them. + +Most Mod work is unseen by design and therefor by structure and definition it is thankless work. And though they are and must be public figures at times, they remain modest as best possible. Mods know they are not "other than", they are Apes first, Mods second. It's a core value and shared ideal of all Mods. But Mods' work and unique commitment to this sub and community should be recognized, respected and appreciated for what it is - dedicated and selfless.  So thank a Mod today, and tomorrow, and be patient with them everyday. They work FOR you, and for your families, and your dreams.   + +[A difficult choice.](https://preview.redd.it/yxoja9jn7h471.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=68aaa5f9ba8e7721fb17bcff81b7c255414dd791) + +As one of a handful of moderators here at SuperStonk on that first fateful Sunday, I watched this Community grow from 1 to 100,000 in 24 hours, and grow to, as I'm writing this, 420,069+ members. (Coincidently, on[ 4/20 my Karma hit 69,420](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv3mrv/nfw_i_sign_off_for_a_few_hours_and_come_back_to/) *Simulation* *Double* *Confirmed* 🤯) But over these many short days, and endlessly long months, this Community has grown not only in numbers but in resolve, strength, intelligence, integrity and in common bond.  + +SuperStonk, by the luck of circumstance and by the hard work of design, has become a sub-reddit unlike any before it. A Community like no other. It is veritable and virtual city of Athens - where Ideas reign and Ideals bond. Mods and Apes at SuperStonk are guided by shared beliefs of individual empowerment, education, information, creativity and mutual respect. And a pursuit of prosperity. Simply put: We just like the stock, and each other. These foundational Ideas and Ideals give this Community its unique strength. And they are the result of the promise of seeds planted in those early days, having now matured into this shrewdness of evolved, global, and diverse Apes. **You**.   + +I helped recruit and build this Mod team, and I am comfortable stepping back in part because I know that those at this sub's helm - u/pinkcatsonacid, u/bye_triangle, u/redchessqueen99 and u/rensole, and every moderator - have the True North of Valhalla in their sights and Apes’ best interests in their hearts.  With this truly world class team, Apes are well served and protected. + +[ Hang a right at the second shitpost - and head straight on 'til morning.](https://preview.redd.it/ld4u1nzs7h471.png?width=982&format=png&auto=webp&s=633d2f8c8a567efe66d3065181cb1c911b1bc25d) + +# Two Steps Forward: First, into the Light + +Stepping back from my Mod role was not an easy decision to make, but it was the right one for me ... so that I can take two steps forward.  First into the light, and then into the fight. By submitting my hiatus notice weeks ago, and by now resigning my Mod role at SuperStonk, I am free to help advance the Ape's interests in other ways that more directly pull upon my personal and professional experience, without the veil and clumsy cloak of anonymity. + +I admire the bravery and courage of those willing to step forward into the light to fight, luminaries like [Dr. Trimbath (forever Queen Kong)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n1bles/new_link_for_dr_trimbath_ama/), u/dlauer, [Wes Christian](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nfs6s2/rsuperstonk_live_wes_christian_may_18_2021_watch/), Lucy Komisar and [Carl Hagberg](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb36ig/thats_an_injustice_in_itself_that_were_letting/), and moderators like u/atobitt, u/pinkcatsonacid, u/jsmar19, u/sharkbaitlol and others. + +And despite the concerns, and potential real-world consequences, I am unafraid. I'm leaning in. + +I am [unafraid of trolls and shills](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lj699j/to_the_paid_shrills_and_pimps_i_hope_you_checked/); I fed shills to baby Satori to help it grow. I am unafraid of hedgies; I’ve looked them in the eyes and seen their sins, and there are many.  And - most of all - [I am unafraid of the truth](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mcxhzd/lets_get_something_clear_sharing_a_wellfounded/); truth is knowledge, and knowledge is power. So I embrace the truth to lean into this fight for equity in markets, structural and systemic fairness, and EQUAL ACCESS to information. So, here is who I am, and my path to this moment - this is my truth. + +[Existential. I have a very particular set of skills ...](https://preview.redd.it/svbnqi108h471.png?width=982&format=png&auto=webp&s=edce389b53b6c151a1bff14d85e94c67a14ddc87) + +# Never Forget Where You Come From + +First, and above all, I am a husband and father to three brilliant little girls, and I care deeply about my family's future. My values were shaped by my parents, two NYC public school teachers, and through their experiences and eyes I long witnessed the inequities of the educational system. My grandparents were immigrants, short-haul truck drivers, and struggling business owners. They toiled within debt systems that doomed them to a life of indentured poverty. I know that I am fortunate, because of their struggle and sacrifice I had a precious and rare opportunity to reach up and grab - to seize - the American Dream. And I did not waste my chance.  Diamond Fucking Hands. + +My path to professional success was not paved by connections or wealth, but built upon a deep and foundational reservoir of focus, industriousness and creativity. My path went from from community college to the Ivy League. From staff to professional. From follower to founder. Along the way I have been a Humanitarian - delivering food and medicine in Belarus to child victims of the Chernobyl nuclear accident. I have been a high school biology Teacher in the Bronx - witnessing the inequities of education first hand. I have been a Lawyer at a top global firm, first as a peon underlying and then - through sheer force of will - winning a seat at tables of influence no young professional can imagine, nor expect. And - now - I have been a SuperStonk Mod, during an unprecedented global Intellectual Rebellion. + +[The Power of APEs. The Power of People.](https://preview.redd.it/i70w63znih471.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=a62d2a03639b6689ccea5cce42b9c02bd379a03e) + +At the peak of my legal career I left. I recognized that I had lost sight of my humanitarian values and my charitable roots but, thankfully, not my memory of them. So I cast off from the calm and comfort of being a working professional and entered the choppy and uncharted waters of social entrepreneurship. I wanted to build the world I hoped for my daughters. I wanted to align my passion and purpose. So - with much work - I did. + +Shortly after I left the law I founded a tech startup named TwentyTables. TwentyTables’ mission was to tackle food insecurity head on, by designing new, tech-enabled, synergistic, vertically integrated systems that could provide low-cost high-quality meals *en mas*.  TwentyTables provided affordable food to those who often couldn’t access it, and donated meals to those who couldn’t afford it.  Over the ensuing 4 years, TwentyTables employed 20 amazing people, served hundreds of thousands of meals, and helped feed tens of thousands of hungry and homeless. All bootstrapped without corporate funding. + +[ Just take a moment to ponder the fantastical implications.](https://preview.redd.it/zgcs7dh28h471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d16d1ac1c6b20ace2fa46b5bc66531f4f855c9c) + +TwentyTables succeeded by building systems predicated on aligned incentives and by embedding structural dynamics where all prospered together. [\*Somewhat like Dr. T's - unique - audiobook contract. Shout out to u/pinkcatsonacid!!\*](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/n71vy9/apes_change_the_world_superstonk_is_donating_time/) From investor, to food distributor, to vendor, to paying customer, to charity, to food insecure family, Everyones' incentives were aligned to make the system pull in the same direction. TwentyTables was a tech enabled business whose foundations comprised complementary aims and goals, not ones based on predatory practices. THIS is the way. This is how you make difficult - systemic - change REAL. And it works.  + +Along the way, TwentyTables received national awards and recognition for our work, but I more often think about the people I met, the smiles I shared, and the bellies we filled.  I know we had a real and lasting impact. And with TwentyTables I learned just how powerful an Idea aligning profit and purpose was - truly capitalism in its best form.  And I learned that the Idea resonated at local food banks, and in ivy halls.  The Idea of aligned Prosperity was Universal, and Powerful. + +[US Chamber of Commerce Foundation Citizen Awards: Best Corporate Steward \(Sm\/Md\) \(2020\)](https://preview.redd.it/xoa7zygv8h471.jpg?width=2771&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cafc1c6303a928141a3a001acb277c3f95c72881) + +But then, COVID hit and ... like so many other growing businesses ... COVID killed my company, scattered my employees, and faded the once shining - perhaps grandiose - vision I had of building a better, more efficient, more equitable food system. And gone was the vision for a better world I was building for my little girls.  COVID ultimately took not only my company, but for many months it took away my purpose. The good I had dedicated my life to bringing into this world was gone. It was a dark and isolated time for me.  And but for the shining beacon of my family’s love - and my dog's constant and unconditional companionship - I was a deeply lost individual.  + +**Lost.** [Until I found you, all.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mbd8nt/gme_roll_call_part_deux_are_you_hodling_raise/) **Damn, I love you Apes.** + +[Buy, HODL, Buckle Up! Squirrel!! ](https://preview.redd.it/3i73hb6f2m471.jpg?width=3678&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e539117c53381d66f073eb0105eb9e77688e88fc) + +# Two Steps Forward: Next, into the Fight + +I created my first account on Reddit and [bought my first shares of GME - at $295](https://www.reddit.com/user/StonkU2/comments/lb3qqv/first_day_loss_pron/) \- both on February 1 ([and was immediately banned from Wall Street Bets for posting loss pron](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lb8jb4/down_70_in_24_hours_should_i_hold_or_put_my_big/)), because of what I saw in the news the week prior.  The blatant abuses of-the-system by-the-system, the exploitation and disregard of retail investors, the lack of accurate data or institutional transparency, all typically left unchecked, were being met head-on by a rogue online community of "Reddit warriors"  ... all this spoke to me.  I wanted to participate in the movement and engage in the global protest. So, I bought shares out of solidarity - 10 shares that first day - and my diamond hands formed fast. [That first week was brutal. Buy moar, HODL - this is the way](https://www.reddit.com/user/StonkU2/comments/ldeab4/committed_to_the_stonk_gme_week_one_so_yeah_it/) \- and so I did, all the way down to that fateful Feb. 19 - when u/deepfuckingvalue doubled down.  [GME launched off of $38.50, so, as compelled to, I began buying on the way up too](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lm3x2n/in_short_i_like_the_stock_dfv_same/). And, you know what I did yesterday ... bought the diiiiiip ... at a tasty $212. I stand before you today a proud XXX holder. It's modest to some, and much to others. Perspective is everything. + +My roots on Reddit are humble. I lurked mostly and followed Apes during the First Great Migration  - from r/wallstreetbets to r/GME \- and then built a platform to - ultimately - [help direct apes here during the Second Great Migration](https://www.reddit.com/r/MOASS/comments/mk82u8/apes_you_are_here_because_of_what_you_see/) \- from r/GME to r/Superstonk. Because of my help that first day, Red invited me to join her here and to build this sub from the ground up, and to create a system and team that best serves Apes.  And that's what we did. + +I believe this persistent - obstinate - apish drive towards truth, transparency, fairness, and community - and the global drum beat of systemic reform - is without historical parallel. I believe this is an Intellectual Rebellion waged by Apes against the status quo, fought in an age of ubiquitous but not universal Information, and where access to that knowledge makes all the difference.  For when Ideas and Data are the Slings and Arrows in the war for Change and Prosperity, [Truth is both the ultimate Shield and Sword.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mxhcnq/beware_phishing_scams_are_trying_to_steal_your/)   + +[Truth, knowledge, data, transparency, equity, community.](https://preview.redd.it/xdwelxh49h471.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=003b175b3b11a90b5419010d5e1b7dfda4f0bb2a) + +I am stepping back from my Moderator role today, but not away from this Community and I am not abandoning Apes - [not after coming all this way with you](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mwdsmm/after_1_week_of_voting_5_brackets_128_submissions/) \- but I'm stepping back because I believe I can serve you best going forward in the open, in a new capacity that I hope to soon share.  **But for this new role the veil of anonymity is cumbersome, and so today I stand in front of you all - exposed - prepared for your judgment, hoping to be recognized for the Ape that I am and the good person I aspire to be. This is who I am, my name is Alexander Ross Cohen.**   + +# [LINKEDIN PROFILE: ALEXANDER ROSS COHEN](https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-cohen-698661139/) + +[Just an Ape.](https://preview.redd.it/2z58bdda9h471.jpg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=837820a73a0502a19b4abc1ae056f9eb9743592f) + +Ultimately, at my core I am a proud father and passionate builder of things, with a strong and anchored moral compass. I hope in the not so distant future to share more with you, news of something exciting, something I started help building AFTER my hiatus began. But that revelation will have to wait.  For now. I am returning to my roots; walking side-by-side with my ape brethren on this strange, wonderous and winding path, stopping now and again to howl at the moon.  Together compelled towards Enlightenment. Towards Information. Towards Community.  Towards Change.  + +[I know. So here we go.](https://preview.redd.it/dhc55o9k9h471.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c32a09ade7a4b60ecd732972e0d94f1e4dbbcff) + +**If you’ve made it this far I appreciate you, ape. And I’ll close with this.**  + +I believe the Power of Ideas is ultimate. *Ideas have the ability to persist long after canons rust, armies die, empires fade, and walls crumble.* *Ideas have the ability to echo through the ages and inspire millions, and empower millions more.* It is THIS community’s uncapped curiosity and passionate pursuit of Ideas that has captured the passions of so many. Sitting quietly with your computer, your phone, and your ideas, you have done ... all this. But we are just getting started. So I caution that the information that gives birth to and fosters these Ideas, these needed truths for an Intellectual Rebellion, is fiercely guarded and intentionally opaque. And if Ideas are Power, their accumulation - Knowledge - is prosperity. **I believe: To truly achieve fairness, equity, and equality in the markets, the walls surrounding Knowledge, Data, Community and Collaboration must come down - the playing field must be leveled broadly so that as Apes and All people may thrive.** + + +[Sunshine is the Best Antiseptic.](https://preview.redd.it/iopoq76s9h471.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f431a86d90020ee41ea06c4291429962400b18) + +**A reckoning of markets is coming, catalyzed by individuals united in ideology and global in reach.**  Lessons born from this moment will be taught for decades shared both by friends around firepits, and lecturers in ivy halls. You, Apes, you broke the wheel. You are showing the system for what it is. *Fundamentally Flawed. Abusive. Patently Unfair.* You seized your American Dream Moment with Diamond Fucking Hands. And you ARE the global movement.  Apes.  Strong. Together.  + + I am grateful for each of every one of you all:  [\~3,000, that's how many "🦍Vote✅" flairs I handed out before automod kicked in, and I loved giving each and every one of them.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/namdo9/voted_want_a_voted_flair_automod_will_hook_you_up/) **And, whether you knew it or not you were there for me when I needed you most, and I will continue to be here for you, too. 🤜🤛** + +[Be Kind to One Another.](https://preview.redd.it/c5h53m00ah471.png?width=974&format=png&auto=webp&s=402f4e3ddb2c31d8b04096bd9b1a82b2757ee179) + +And to everyone who just likes the stock, who read this all and bottom line just wants to know whether any of this is relevant at all to you or GME or helps you in any way? *Soon: Yes.*  + +# Profit to the People. Power to you, Players. 💎✊ + +**TL:DR Free Markets Cannot Be Free, Unless They Are Fair.  So I stand here and choose to fight. My name is Alexander Ross Cohen.  I am an APE. I have been a SuperStonk Mod since Day One. Today, I step back from my role, but not from this Community. Stay tuned ... 🤜🤛** +Each year, I keep a summary sheet of my investments, stock, cash, debts, etc. My goal has always been financial independence even though I never realized it until later in life. I just never wanted ANY debt (never paid a penny of CC interest in my life), and wanted to be completely financially secure. + +Throughout the years, I've paid off debt aggressively, starting with the highest % loan first, and made a game of it. I seriously got a thrill out of figuring out how I could either increase my income, or reduce my expenses to put more money against debt each month. + +Just last year, I knocked out my mortgage at age 33. That kicked my savings/investing into high gear, essentially giving me that much more to invest each month. + +Today, when I ran my summary, my total net worth crossed just over the $1MM mark. I have to say, I sure as heck don't feel like a millionaire. I still live somewhat frugally, but thats the life long habit that got me here. + +Anyway, thanks to this subreddit for the constant reminders and tips along the way. I still have a long way to go before I'd consider myself FI, but this is a major milestone I wanted to celebrate with FI (since I wouldn't tell a soul in real life!) + + +People seem to think that small business "job creators" will be taxed out of existence if taxes for the wealthy are raised, or technically, returned to the higher rates. But, what actually happens is that nearly every penny a business spends to conduct its business is an expense and is not taxable at all. That means inventory, operating expenses, insurance, wages, other taxes etc. are not taxed. + +To give an example: a small business on some main street pulls in $500,000/year. She pays $250,000 on inventory, $50,000 in operating expenses such as rent, utilities, maintenance, insurance, fees, advertisement, supplies and so on, and pays a total of say $150,000 for wages for 6 employees. She is not taxed on any of that money! If she takes all the profits for herself that year, she would be paying herself $50,000 ($500,000 minus inventory costs, operating expenses and wage expenses). Even then she gets standard deductions and exemptions for herself and her family. If she has four people in her family maybe $15,000 will be exempted, and she would pay taxes on only $35,000...a far cry from the $250,000 bracket. + +tldr: +Out of $500,000 revenue for instance, the taxable amount to the small business owner(s) is a small fraction after all the expenses are deducted. + + +EDIT: Great Conversation all! Lots of clarification in the threads and a lot of nonsense and stupidity too lol. +1. Yes the inventory cost is incorrect in my example, it should also include how much inventory was left at the end of the year, and that amount is considered an asset and might be taxed. + +I figured out that I've taken in more in SNAP and Medicaid benefits than I've paid in taxes over the past decade. While I am extremely thankful for these safety nets, I feel ashamed that I am a net drain on society, at least in fiscal terms. Anyone else feel like this? I hope to turn it all around one of these days, but I'm starting to lose hope. +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/long-island-iced-teas-stock-rockets-nearly-500-after-changing-name-to-long-blockchain-2017-12-21?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo + + +B U B B L E +This is a trap a lot of people fall into (myself included): just because it's a "good deal" doesn't mean you "saved" money by buying it, it's still money that you spent! + +This might be obvious to most people but it's a good reminder that pops up on here occasionally and has stopped me from making some dumb purchases on more than one occasion. Hopefully it helps someone on this Prime Day. +I sent in my resignation letter just then and my boss called me with a furious tone saying he wanted to have a chat to me tomorrow 'before work'. + +I just want to know what my rights are before I go talk to him tomorrow. Am I obliged to tell him why I'm resigning? Yes, I have a new job and everything, but I know legally I don't have to mention it. + +I'm also the lowest level staff in the 'company hierarchy' so there's literally nothing for me to 'hand over' to colleagues. He's denied me every training opportunity these past 2 years, so there's no hope of learning or promotion. + *Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average \~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it.* + +Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the [first](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l5l413/gamestop_big_picture_the_short_singularity/) and [second](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/l6xc8l/gamestop_big_picture_the_short_singularity_pt_2/) post on this topic. + +Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars... + +Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there. + +Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience [true enlightenment](https://www.reddit.com/user/DeepFuckingValue/posts/). + +Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack. + +# Pre-Market + +Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try. + +Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices. + +[Mark Cuban](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhZZnVs-KM4)\--well said! Free markets baby! + +Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is [money yet again](https://youtu.be/Gxan42tXhbo?t=164). Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)! + +The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open. + +CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there). + +If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow. + +# You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear! + +Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant. + +Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday. + +*Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around* + +Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old). + +Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest. + +Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first... + +**A side lesson on market orders** + +Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are). + +During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone. + +What happened? + +During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out. + +So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin'). + +**edit** *so while I was too busy trying not to spit out my coffee to grab a screenshot, /u/piddlesthethug was faster on the draw and captured this: https://imgur.com/gallery/RI1WOuu + +Ok, so I guess my in-the-moment mental math was off by about 10%. Man, that hurts just thinking about the guy who lost on that trade.* + +Back to the market action.. + +# A Ray of Light Through the Darkness + +So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons. + +On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis). + +On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag. + +But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / **$5,000** bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself. + +**edit** *So, there's feedback in the comments that this is likely more of a technical glitch. Man, at least it was hilarious in the moment. But also now I know maybe not to trust price updates when the spread between orders being posted is so wide. Maybe a technical limitation of TOS* + +I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly. + +So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out. + +I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move?? + +The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F\*CKING PISSED. + +Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access. + +The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people. + +Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast. + +# The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)? + +Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine. + +&#x200B; + +|Date|Volume|Price at US Market Close| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Friday, 1/22/21|197,157,196|$65.01| +|Monday, 1/25/21|177,874,00|$76.79| +|Tuesday, 1/26/21|178,587,974|$147.98| +|Wednesday, 1/27/21|93,396,666|$347.51| +|Thursday, 1/28/21|58,815,805|$193.60| + +What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest. + +What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital? + +Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished. + +But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price? + +No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s). + +It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday. + +In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore. + +Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen. + +They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close. + +Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates [Lee Cooperman's](https://youtu.be/mI-nItz56Fs?t=279) concerns. + +On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??! + +You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses. + +# Ok, So.. Questions + +**There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly??** *(side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?)* + +We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this. + +But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness! + +...Madness? + +THIS. IS. **THE MARKET!!! \*Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\***. + +Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus. + +I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market? + +Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down). + +**If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about?** + +Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way. + +What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares. + +How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday). + +But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover? + +The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right. + +On the other hand.. + +What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here). + +Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever. + +Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then? + +Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point. + +Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid? + +Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway. + +And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: **So what happens next?** Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down? + +Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post. + +# The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington + +The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic. + +People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality. + +Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic. + +Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world? + +Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL. + +Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing. + +Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs. + +Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big. + +...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry. + +Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"! + +We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right? + +Maybe. + +First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say. + +Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain. + +But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy. + +Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again. + +Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, [Thomas Petterfy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RH4XKP55fM) has a point. This could be a serious problem. + +It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street. + +If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either. + +How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!! + +Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind. + +# A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem... + +What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked. + +Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening: + +First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind. + +Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes. + +If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no. + +You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat. + +But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius! + +Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget. + +Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10... + +...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan... + +***So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION...*** + +End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000^(\*)!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet. + +^(\*)*side note: add 8 zeros to the end...* + +Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because... + +&#x200B; + +.. + +&#x200B; + +**BOOM** + +&#x200B; + +Now it's **EVERYONE's** problem. [Come at me, Chamath](https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1353886305277472768), **THIS** is **REAL** baller shit. + +Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done. + +Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point. + +Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market! + +Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day. + +**Edit** getting a bunch of questions on if it's possible the hedge funds are finding ways to cover in spite of my assumptions. Of course. I'm a retail guy trying to read the charts and price action. I don't have any special tools like the pros may have. +**UPDATE:** The v0.6 version of the sheets is ready for others to download and use (link below). + +I have been working on a project to recreate DFV's Roaring Kitty Spreadsheets that he used to track movements and metrics on thousands of stocks. This latest version tracks top movers, insider buying, and industry breakdowns along with several value metrics. + +The spreadsheets now track: + +* A universe of over 3,000 stocks +* The biggest daily movers +* The biggest weekly movers +* The stocks with the most insider buying +* All stocks based on their industry and sub-industry + +You can view and download [version v0.6 stock tracker here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1peYe8V-PDQwueKSbgGTgQXT5zFYhQ8niZvMJo3S_YI4/edit#gid=171851922&range=A1:C1). + +I built a working publicly available [Stock Universe (v0.5)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QAKESea8lpez5uTOdDyFJh3URpRNMnodRPAdFsD143Q/edit#gid=284741622&range=A1:C1) that acts as a database tracking over 3,000 US stocks. This was followed by the [Stock Tracker (v0.5)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Vxn1EcDRrHqCpCnRvkJdeVijD6lYSHZINHdvdglclBA/edit#gid=171851922&range=A1:C1) which take the data from the Universe and tracks daily and weekly movers. You can download and use the v0.5 version for yourself! + +The v0.5 versions will slow way down during market hours. The latest version (v0.6) has much more capability, is much faster, and works great during market hours, but is still a work in progress. +I'm up more than 110x so I just sold a chunk and used it to pay off my mortgage. I now own 100% of my own apartment and am completely debt free, thanks to a rather small bitcoin investment 7 years ago. Even if Bitcoin were to crash down to zero, my life is going to be so much easier now that I essentially have more money every month. This is a life changing event for me. +If so, what was the portfolio size that made that OK for you? + +I am thinking about doing it with a portfolio of about a quarter mil and average net premiums of about 3500/m from CCs on top of market gains of about 6500/m. + +Potential to add maybe another 100k if the market tanked to buy the mega dip between a HELOC and my spouse's portfolio which I don't currently manage and which is currently S&P and forget. + +I would probably volunteer at a charity just to keep getting out of the house, as long as they were fine with the idea that I get to set that charity stuff aside and trade as needed to pay myself so they don't have to pay me. + +Dual income household, so a bad month wouldn't be a disaster. + +Upside, I get to feel like I am giving back to society rather than trading time for dollars. + +\- Edit - Thanks for the silver. Thanks for the multiple instances of Hugz also. +Hello everyone- I am 23 Years Old and I won a really big jackpot at the casino. + +After taxes I am roughly getting that amount. + +This is life changing for me and I wanted to see if anyone else had some suggestions for me- the first thing I did was talk to a financial advisor and he is preparing a presentation for me on Tuesday. + +This was my plan; but if anybody else had any better ideas PLEASE enlighten me!! + +$379,000 + +$200K to Brokerage Account - Never Touch ( Will Compound until Retirement ) +$20k Daughters College Fund (2Yrs Old) +$38,000 Car +50k to Parents (A lot I know but their in debt. ) += $308,000 + +$71,000 left for me to live off of and save for future investments? + +I plan to max out IRA & ROTH IRA every year aswell. + +Please any suggestions- I am expecting it to be paid out soon. + +Update: Thank you EVERYONE- I really am reading everybody’s comments and taking everything into consideration! Please share your wisdom! Your comment can help change my future so please share (: + +_______________________________________ +Update: 11:31AM + +Some context; I worked two jobs as a manager of a casino at night and at a bank in the morning. 😢 my goal was to make $100k a year to pay off debt, and invest in real estate. I’ve done six years in the army aswell. I was literally working 80hours a week with little sleep. After I won I decided to take some time off from the Casino Industry as I’ve done that for years and I know I will always have a position. I prefer the 9-5 lifestyle the bank provides especially with my daughter. I have a heavy financial/management background; but no formal education. My current major is Bussines-Law + +_______________________________________ + +Update: 9:20 PM + +Thank you everyone again- I have read everything and have decided to Definitely put more into my Fidelity account; but ONLY AFTER I have researched everything intimately on all the knowledge the community has given me. In the meanwhile I can sit on it. + +There is Definitley a lot of self education but I have a lot of time and freedom afforded to me. The majority consensus seems to be that financial advisors are the devil 😅😂. + +I deleted the part about me looking into mobile homes; because I now plan to use Private Lending with Real Estate to do quick flips with an experienced and trusted partner in the industry that I learned from before early when I was 20-21. (Their portfolio is already in the millions in RE and they have always been a mentor to me.) + +I also plan to utilize my VA Loan to leverage my 0% Down- and Rehab- and Live and Flip while renting out some of the rooms. After Two Years; Cash Out Refinance- and use more of the capital for more rentals and rehab. 😊 + +With everyone’s advice I am able to Both SECURE my future through the use of Stocks and Compound Interest; as-well as BUILD further through positive cash flow from Real Estate to expand my portfolio and get the best from both worlds. + +Thank you everyone for their time and details they have provided. I have a lot to learn- but I am motivated 💪. Thank you all- and as more answers keep coming; I am reading everyone of them (: so thank you for taking your time to assist me. It is truly appreciated. +Shouldn't the taxes scare off businessmen and prevent them from succeeding too much? I don't think there are any structures to help them out either. + +It's the opposite as Singapore, but it works just as well plus adds social benefits, while the Singapore/Japanese model just seems to have drained their people dry. What's made it so? +Private health care and insurance is a huge market in the US. How many jobs would be lost there if universal healthcare became the norm? Would it be enough for a noticable recession? Is there a way to do this without any ill effects on tbe economy? +My name is Nick Timiraos. I'm a WSJ reporter covering the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic policy and author of Trillion Dollar Triage, my book about the economic-policy response to the pandemic. + +I started reporting for the Journal in 2006 about U.S. housing and mortgage markets. + +This year, I've been reporting on [the U.S. economy's 40-year inflation high](https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-central-banks-maintain-their-autonomy-11661525673) and the ways the Fed is trying to fix it [without raising unemployment](https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-jobs-fed-recession-economy-11650294297). I've interviewed [the Fed chair](https://youtu.be/BwYrbCG_C_U) and [former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers](https://www.wsj.com/live-qa/breaking-down-the-us-economic-outlook-with-larry-summers/BB75F38B-A4D8-478B-9959-FF6FB68D80D0).  + +I'm fresh from yesterday's press conference following the September Fed meeting and ready to answer your questions about what lies ahead for the central bank and the U.S. economy at large. + +PROOF: https://i.redd.it/gwcs5kyaubp91.jpg + +UPDATE: That's all the time I have for now. Thanks for all the great questions. + +I’ll also be hosting a live reader Q&A session with Larry Summers and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday, 9/27 at 1pm ET. You can submit your questions for the panel and watch the conversation here: https://www.wsj.com/live-qa/the-economic-outlook-with-larry-summers-and-the-fed-neel-kashkari/36F3D235-F312-44B3-92D0-443D93D4CE09 +I was essential until today. I'm a millennial. I was in fertility treatments because it took me until 35 to be close to getting there. Unexplained infertility. My health insurance ends in 7 days. That train has sailed now. I'm sad. I'm over it, I'm done. Both my husband and I have masters degrees. We have zero income now and a shitton of debt and will be applying for unemployment, food stamps, and ACA tomorrow. + +How do you work so hard, your whole ass off and it's over in what's a text from your boss "hey, do you have a quick second for a conversation?" + +I'm ready to give up. I didn't last time, but this time feels real. + +EDIT: Thank you so much for all of your kind words. I really appreciate it and absolutely appreciate the time that you all took to share your stories and offer your support. + +For those that asked- My master's is in Aviation and I worked as an operations manager and my husband's is in art and he worked as an exhibit designer for a museum which has closed due to the pandemic. I have a lot of training and professional development experience, so I'm looking to maybe pivot into something more like that. +**EDIT:** Love you apes. Sorry again for the crass language and the tone. It was part frustration, part trying an alternate strategy to reach people. I will try and fix my typos and errors as I find them but this took me like three hours to write and I really need to get some work done. + +**EDIT 2**: I updated the percentages on the numbers chart, as people correctly pointed out the implied increase negated the need for the 100% base. Thank you so much for everyone taking the time to understand. I do want to mention that I'm not saying the MOASS is on a date. I just wanted to get attention drawn to a point of data that, to me at least, seems urgent and critical for apes to see, especially while the price dips. I always reserve the right to be wrong. Thank you all so much for your comments, I appreciate them all and read them as I can. + +**PREFACE** + +I am screaming from the rooftops about this to any apes who will listen. The bells are tolling for hedgies and no one is noticing or caring. I've made two other posts trying to draw attention to this and both got downvoted into obscurity or spammed with cries of "Shill!" + +I try to make every post respectful, concise, and as clear as possible but that isn't working and this needs to be heard, so I'm going to go crass. Prepare for a meandering, poorly edited, train of though addled wall of text! I'm going to worry less about citing and more about getting this out there. I'll edit in citations later if anyone fucking pays attention and this doesn't get downvoted to hell. + +I love all you apes, but the hedgies are bleeding out right in front of us and you dense mother fuckers are busy upvoting cat videos and low effort memes to the front page instead of useful discussion. You aren't all diamond hands, you're diamond skull too. If I need to make a puppet show I will, you're going to understand how important today is. + +**TOPIC** + +Today is the settlement date for the short interest reports due to FINRA twice a month. These dates are as important as FTD cycle dates but no one ever fucking pays any attention to them. Every single time these dates come around the price will bump UP by 25% to 35%. What did we see this cycle? A DROP OF 40%! + +This is the first time in a year that the price fell for a SI report cycle. It has always risen by as much as 500% during the Jan squeeze or as little as 22% in April while the stock was running flat but it ALWAYS GOES UP! + +**Pay the fuck attention here**. The price goes up when these dates come around, not down. There is a very simple reason why, if you give two shits about it you can read my first DD: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nztx4l/finra\_short\_interest\_reporting\_the\_current\_price/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nztx4l/finra_short_interest_reporting_the_current_price/) + +**GRADE SCHOOL LEVEL EXPLANATION** + +I'm going to use an analogy and then a real world example with numbers to try and hold as many people's hands here and explain what's happening. + +Let's say you get a small cut and it bleeds a little bit. You're not going to die. You get cut again and again and again and you're still not going to die but every cut makes the bleeding come faster and faster. Eventually so many cuts will accumulate that the bleeding will kill you. + +Now imagine you're getting these cuts but don't want anyone to know you're bleeding, so you cover the cuts up with bandages. You're still fucking bleeding, you're still going to die, but at least nobody knows it. People can see you're a little cut, but no one can clearly tell you're fucking hamburger and being held together by duct tape and stubbornness. + +Now what happens when you run out of bandages and you get a new cut. That cut is going to show, people are going to see it. Worst, your old bandages need to be changed from time to time. You're now not just fucked, but everyone is going to start realizing you're fucked and they're going to go after your weak ass. + +That's the hedge funds right now, they're out of bandages. + +These pieces of shit have been creating synthetic shares of GME for months now, since before the Jan squeeze. In Jan they were over 100% short, so what happens when someone buys a share of a stock that has no shares to sell? The price goes up. It goes WAY the fuck up. To counter, the hedge funds have been creating synthetic shares. + +There are piles and piles of DD on this topic, please use the DD search button and read some of them if you're lost. + +So, let's say it's April 16th. You have synthetically created MILLIONS of shares of GME and apes keep buying. You create more shares every time they want to buy more so that the price doesn't climb. But every time you create shares you have to balance your books. Luckily, the SEC is shit at their jobs and you can fudge 10% or so of the shares you create out of thin air, but there is still just way too many shares getting created day after day. + +Then, here comes a settlement date on April 30th. In that time you've synthetically created 20 million shares and fucked the stock price in the process, only letting sell pressure materialize. You even got super sneaky and only marked half the shares you created out of thin air as short. You're still holding your dick and 10 million fucking shares that have to be balanced before your system creates an automated report and sends it to FINRA. Fuck. OK, so you start buying up deep in the money calls and shoving hundreds of thousands of shares into them, but there's only so many of those in a day. Here you are three days before the report is due and you've still got 7 million shares to fucking deal with. No option, you're going to cover 6 million of them, let the stock price concentrate a few percent, and then short the fuck out of it in a couple days. The report you send in, which is completely fucked and not even close to accurate, only shows you have 20% of the stock shorted, because you managed to lie about half of them, shove a quarter of them into options, juggled the rest into the share price for a couple days. April 30th hits and the report fires, you now can start the stupid fucking cycle all over again! + +**MIDDLE SCHOOL LEVEL** + +If you're with me so far, then I'm proud of you and you get a star. + +The hedgies are trapped in this cycle, it is married to the FTD cycle that everyone focuses on, but both of these cycles feed each other and compound on each other. + +Every time a report is due they have to cover whatever amount of shares they can't hide into options. If you want to know more about how hedge funds hide their shit in options, please use the DD button, there are a lot of VERY deep dives into that topic. + +Every time there is a settlement date looming, the shorts cover any open excessive shares they haven't yet hidden. Every time. Without exception. + +Now, half you retards skimming here read this as 'the shorts have covered'. THE SHORTS HAVE NOT COVERED! They are not closing the hundreds of millions of short positions they have open every settlement cycle, what they are closing is a fraction of the shares they created. Their strategy is to balance their bullshit between "accounting errors" and not marking synthetic shares as being short, shoving shares into options, and covering the remained. They cannot over do any one of the three. If they pump too many shares into options, the next FTD cycle will hit too hard. If they fuck up their report too much, it will cross the line from a fine and end up with jail time. If they cover too much it will send the share price too high. They use ALL THREE! + +**WHAT HAPPENED** + +I hope you're still with me, we're almost there.... + +&#x200B; + +[Pretty pictures](https://preview.redd.it/g49n3z9peh571.png?width=1866&format=png&auto=webp&s=45312c14e7656455d6791d0e765be717c4eed00e) + +[Scary numbers!](https://preview.redd.it/zlu198bxvh571.png?width=308&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b91ba7bd00b5f164716d4d5390fd666b18dd7b) + +Here is a chart of settlement dates, the high that resulted from the date, and the low a day or two previous to the high. The highs are always (except for in 2 exceptions) the day BEFORE settlement. For the two exceptions, the high was two days before settlement. The lows occur before the high within a day or two. Lastly is the percent increase. + +You can ignore everything the Jan and Feb squeezes, their behavior is not typical for reasons I really shouldn't have to explain. You can see that before settlement the price always goes up. Always. + +**This settlement cycle, for the first time ever the price went down, it went down 40 god damn percent.** + +That's not a weird fluke, that's a fucking alarm bell ringing and everyone is ignoring it to watch anchors on CNBC yell at each other. + +**EXPLANATIONS** + +There are three possible solutions to why the price went down but only one of them makes any logical sense. Now, deep breath, you have to apply deductive reasoning. I will now attempt to make my case for the three arguments and why only one of them can be true. Hold onto your butts. + +**ARGUMENT 1**: *SHF managed to hide their short positions using their usual tactics, and sell pressure was so high they never needed to cover the shares they typically have to.* + +I want to point your attention to everyone's favorite datapoint, OBV: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/evzz891m7h571.png?width=1298&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1385a64ef72920fb447d91a2019252dd8244008 + +OBV is not the answer to all questions, but it can show us with a good enough clarity that no one is selling. After April 12 the OBV has only increased. This flat out tells you people are buying and not selling. Notice at the end there, the last few days, that dip is fucking pathetic. Even the paper hand bitches that joined in the last two weeks haven't sold. + +So the sell pressure didn't deflate shit, what about options, maybe they just shoved so many god damned shares into options this week... + +[https://www.optionsonar.com/unusual-option-activity/GME/latest-trades](https://www.optionsonar.com/unusual-option-activity/GME/latest-trades) + +Well, nope, according the optionsonar this week isn't exceptional. No more deep ITM buys then we'd expect to see. So they didn't hide the shares and they didn't cover the shares. This argument is fucked. + +**ARGUMENT 2**: *Hedge funds lie, they're just going to lie on this report.* + +This argument is slightly more plausible but still doesn't cover it. I want to emphasis, these dates are married to the FTD cycle. The FTD cycle is the noose around the hedgies necks. The cycle is strangling their stupid asses out. If they could just cheat away their short positions, they'd have been doing that YEARS ago. + +What's that I hear you saying over you bowl of cheerios with no milk? "Oh, but they're desperate now and trying desperate measures" They've been desperate since Feb when the dick parked behind them started inching into their asses. They've been doing everything they possibly can since at least Feb with no way out. If it was as simple as lying don't you think they would have tried that by now? + +I don't want to tell you jack shit about me, who I am or what I do in the real world, but I do have personal experience on this front, I do know what I'm talking about. The SEC may have their thumbs up their asses but if you fuck the dog too much, they will have no choice but to prosecute you. You can stick a finger or two in, but when you go balls deep there will be consequences. + +[https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/quick-facts/Securities\_Fraud\_FY19.pdf](https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/quick-facts/Securities_Fraud_FY19.pdf) + +Fraud, actual fucking fraud, not the stupid ass bullshit people on here like to call fraud, but REAL fucking fraud gets the government wet. USDAs will jump on them, it's a slam dunk easy case, the government gets to collect a bunch of sweet cash from their restitution payments, probation offices get to toss them onto the low risk caseload and check in with them a couple times a year. Everyone on the federal side wins. Again, I don't want to say too much but I know what I'm talking about on this topic, these assholes get prosecuted, they get years of probation and sometimes small stints in prison. Worst of all, you lose your ability to EVER practice finance again. Scarlett letter, they're fucked. + +So, they might push the envelope, they might fudge the numbers egregiously, but they wont erase 100 million shares and expect it not to get found. + +Reports like those sent the FINRA are created with automated workflows. In order for them to fraudulently mark all of their synthetic shares as long a worker at the bottom of the barrel would have to have gone in and done it. Some programmer, trader, or middle manger would have knowingly put his career, his freedom, his family's security on the line. For what? So his job lasts a couple weeks longer? So his boss will give him a thumbs up? Fucking no, no one is that stupid. No one is going to gamble away their entire life for a couple more weeks at a paycheck or a good performance review. + +If it were that simple, if cheating at that level were an option, they would already be doing it. + +I'm running in circles here but this is the first time the price dropped from a settlement, not just didn't go up, fucking dropped by 40%. It was shorted to shit. This isn't Ken going in with some whiteout and a pen, there are dozens of people involved with this action and they aren't all going to sacrifice themselves for no god damned reason, especially when they could get a sweet whistleblower reward for reporting it. + +**ARGUMENT 3:** They aren't going to cover. + +When you rule out all the other possibilities, what you're left with is the only logical argument. These assholes are unable to or unwilling to cover the shares they need to. + +Maybe the number of them is so egregious there is no point. + +Maybe the move to the Russell 1000 on the 25th will make the entire exercise pointless. + +Maybe there's too much scrutiny on them with the SEC finally investigating. + +Who the fuck knows, all I know is, they didn't cover. + +&#x200B; + +They didn't hide them all, they didn't sell them all, they aren't going to willingly go to jail, **THEY'RE SURRENDERING** whether intentional or not. + +When the report gets published on the 25th, it will show all the shares they couldn't fudge or hide. It will show tens of thousands of shares. Not just 20%, it'll be 60% minimum, and it'll be just the tip of the iceberg. That number will only represent a couple weeks of shorting. + +Blood in the water, the sharks will circle. This is massive. + +Apes need to fucking see this. Everyone is crying over a little price dip while the god damned final blows are being struck. + +You may downvote this again, spam accusations of Shill, but I'm not going to stop trying to get this topic to people's attention. + +I'm done for now and will go back to a polite demeanor. + +To all the apes who took the time to read, thank you! +I know you need to be consistent and all and not giving up. But i dont understand How some make SO MUCH like billions from it. Because alot of people i have seen on the internet have become rich but not crazy rich like 100 million+ or billionaires level. And thats why im curious How some do it? Inheritence? +Over the next 7 days I'm going to use just under 0.1 Bitcoin (0.0938) I have set aside from my portfolio to solely buy what El McAfee tells me to buy. It will be called the "7 days of Christmas challenge". Will post results in 7 days with a daily breakdown. + +I know hes a paid shill and I know they are all trash coins, I don't plan on holding any for more than a few minutes. I have absolutely nothing to do where I currently live so my plan is to leave his Twitter open while I play through Halo CE and borderlands 2. The moment he tweets some dribble and if it's on the exchange with my Bitcoin I'll buy immediately and sell after I'm happy with the profits. I'll compare to my main portfolio and see where it ends up. + +Edit: after some math I realised I only need to make 39% profit on each trade to achieve this. Fun fact, using similar math and a well known calculation you only need 10 trades/cycles of 7.2% gains to double your money! + +Edit 2: Added a name for this after lying in bed unable to sleep - The 7 days of Christmas challenge as it starts on Christmas day for me in Australia. + +Edit 3: RIP inbox, away from home for Christmas so waking up on Christmas morning to so many comments albeit remind me in 1 week was pretty cool. + +4: Day 1 was a failure, not on cryptopia like all the past ones. tried it with some money I had on bittrex but it truly seems bots have taken over and instantly cause connection issues when you go to that exchange pair.... + +Also thank you for the Reddit gold kind stranger, was a nice Christmas present :), this individual a long with 4 others have asked me to add a dogecoin address for future projects so I have. + +To be clear I am not asking for donations or money at all, anything donated will be stored and eventually donated to charity. If I actually get some donations to this address I'm thinking id run a poll for the community to vote to determine where the coins should be invested. After a year of hodling and perhaps several more polls to adjust the portfolio any money will be donated to charity. Again I have been asked to do this and replied to these people saying I don't want to look like I'm asking for money, I do however think this would be a cool idea to have a community run portfolio to give to needy causes. + +Dogecoin - D6CXrdL7H85rBwA5UiQGTBad36SiexmXEy + +Edit: incase you guys haven't realised I already made an updated post, at work so I can't really find it right now. I have given up since he no longer is doing daily coin posts... +I'm extremely annoyed. I feel that I've been subjected to a bait-and-switch. When she called to set up an appointment, I said "Before we do that, are you a fiduciary?" She said yes. I said "Great, I'd love to set up an appointment!" When I got there I saw a plaque on her desk saying she was a broker. I read online that a broker is NOT the same as a fiduciary. I asked her about it and she said, "Let me explain to you what a fiduciary is... blah blah blah... so I consider myself a fiduciary." + +She thinks that I, 30, should invest my inheritance in a deferred annuity for retirement. I have ~60k earmarked for retirement and the rest of the inheritance earmarked for current emergency fund and paying off current bills. + + +In my neck of the woods, agents are telling me that it’ll cost me 6% to sell my house. I bargained them down .5%, so now I’m only paying 5.5% to sell. Even with the wild housing market over the last couple of years, I’ll be selling at a loss because of closing costs. + +*slow clap* + +What the heck? These people spend like 2-3 weeks of actual work total max, and they’ll be cashing in several tens of thousands without breaking a sweat. I’m not saying they provide zero value, but frankly it doesn’t seem far off. Why do we have to pay brokers to buy and sell houses? As far as I can tell, it seems like their jobs are to get you in touch with painters, list something online, and email you a couple boilerplate documents to sign. + +One final rant / note, all of the brokers I’ve spoken to have had no idea that you can deduct closing costs from capital gains (one of them told me it was a “cute question” she didn’t know the answer to before I cutely fired her). + +Any suggestions or thoughts here on how to reduce these closing costs are welcome. +[source](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/citigroup-to-shutter-retail-banking-operations-in-13-countries-including-india-6774521.html) + +*The 13 nations Citibank will pull out from are Australia, Bahrain, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.* + +Notably, investment banking operations will continue in markets where the company is exiting consumer operations. +https://imgur.com/MWZFUUe + +https://sec.report/Document/0001616344-21-000004/ + +I see you Kenny. I used to think that you were just a bystander in this, and caught up in your friends bad bets; you turned out to be the main villain. + +And $57,500,000,000 (billion with a B... that's 57 thousand million for all the non-US apes) is the bare minimum you owe. Why do I know this? Because it's on your annual frickin' report, and you spend 12 months a year cooking those numbers to look as positive as possible to your investors. You don't put your worst numbers in a published report... + +What were your short positions from the year before? + +https://sec.report/Document/0001146184-20-000006/ + +$27.5b... + +You doubled your position last year, Kenny. + +----- + +Citadel claims on their own page that they process over 25% of all market trades, and close to 50% of all retail trades. + +https://www.citadelsecurities.com/products/equities-and-options/ + +**Our automated equities platform trades approximately 26% of U.S. equities volume across more than 8,900 U.S.-listed securities and trades over 16,000 OTC securities. We execute approximately 47% of all U.S.-listed retail volume, making us the industry’s top wholesale market maker.** + +In this post: https://old.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetbetsnew/comments/m6xehe/robinhood_the_missing_link/ - I talked about how RobbingYourAss and Citadel are engaging in CFD-like activities; legally floating orders to close at better prices, if you will. I believe Citadel's annual report just solidified that, in my mind. + +*Note: Understand, I'm not exactly talking about rehypothecation or naked shorting of any individual company here... I believe he's issuing short shares "legally" under his Market Making abilities... * + +----- + +Citadel's plan is to route as much of retails orders through its system as possible, and issue a short share for whatever trade is sent to them through a retail platform. + +70-90% of retail trades lose money. By issuing a short share on the trade instead of locating a real share to transact, they are simultaneously "providing liquidity", while also betting directly against retail. It used to be a hugely safe bet. It was making money both ways. They collect free money on the share sale, make money by selling off the short positions in a bond (more on this in a second), and make money by the separate entities holding the short positions while Citadel Securities continues to drive the price down. + +But then retail won a bet. And not just one bet, but they won multiple bets simultaneously. In late January, multiple stocks spiked at the same time: Gamestop, Nokia, AMC, BlackBerry, etc... + +---- + +THAT is why Citadel had to shut down trading, and why RobbingYourMum only shut down trading on specific stocks. And THAT is why we just heard in the last congressional hearing directly from the DTCC, that the DTCC did NOT raise margin requirements and cause a halt to any trading. + +Citadel, as the market maker for 50% of all retail trades, was short on positions that were processed through RubbingYourCuck... and every single position went up huge at the exact same time. Citadel was caught on the line for every single short position that they created and that was held by RibbedCondom users. + +And they still are. + +They were providing liquidity to retail the entire time before the squeeze at the pre-squeeze prices. + +And yes, I already hear you: "But those short positions could just be their daily market making activity and completely normal in a day-to-day operation." + +The truth is: It doesn't matter. + +----- + +It only matters that those positions existed before the squeeze. The initial run-up happened so fast that there was no time to reverse their positions. The prices went up by multiples in a single day. Any short position they held, they were now locked in to. + +And that's assuming that every share purchased *during* the run-up, also wasn't just short shares going out the door. Citadels page states: + +"Our automated equities platform trades approximately 26% of U.S. equities volume across more than 8,900 U.S.-listed securities and trades over 16,000 OTC securities. We execute approximately 47% of all U.S.-listed retail volume, making us the industry’s top wholesale market maker." + +Automated. + +If they had the automated system programmed to create a short position for a percentage of all retail shares routed to it... THAT explains why trading was completely shut off. The system was just generating short shares the entire time, and Citadel was (and is) the one on the line for all of it. THAT is also why they allowed selling and not buying. It allowed them to try and purchase back their shares at the same prices they shorted them at, with no buying interference. + +Know what the best part of all this is? + +That $57,500,000,000 was what they had on the books as of 12/20/20... it doesn't even count what happened in January. + +----- + +Kenny, my man... Exactly how deep are you right now?... + +If Citadel executes 50% of all retail trades, and there were 800,000,000 trades on GME alone between Jan 21 and Jan 29 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history?p=GME)... how many of those 400,000,000 shares did you short to provide liquidity, Kenny? How many did you cover?... + +How many are still owed after exercising all of your options for the last 4 months? + +Is that why Citadels corporate bonds were rated BBB-? The absolute lowest rating you can get for investment grade bonds? Is it because your updated liabilities page looks like a raging dumpster fire? + +That is why Citadel keeps being called out by name in the congressional hearings and being asked if they should be allowed to fail. Because I now firmly believe that Citadel is the ultimate bagholder of all of this. + +----- + +Remember, not only did Citadel bail out Melvin to avoid the margin call dominoes from falling, Citadel Advisors also personally lost over 3% of their worth in January alone (what was reported): https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/here-are-the-hedge-fund-winners-and-losers-amid-januarys-gamestop-mania-2021-2-1030034341 + +Citadel Advisors showed $234bil in AUM in 05/01/20: https://aum13f.com/firm/citadel-advisors-llc + +(Remember, Citadel Advisors is separate from Citadel Securities) + +If they lost 3%, that's $7,000,000,000 in losses in January alone, not counting the Cohen bailout. + +So how do I think Citadel Advisors and Melvin Capital wound-up holding short positions created by Citadel Securities if there is supposed to be a firewall between the two of them? By re-packaging the short positions and selling themselves collateralized trust bonds. Crazy Melon (u/sydneyfriendlycub) has a very well-written group of posts about it here: https://old.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/n2hjnk/33_the_ultimate_dd_guide_to_the_moon_crazy_melon/ + +Citadel Securities would sell short positions to facilitate liquidity on retail trades, and simultaneously bet against retail. Citadel Securities would package those short positions in Collateralized Trust Bonds, and sell those bonds to Citadel Advisors and Melvin Capital. + +That would get the short positions off of Citadel Securities books, effectively "covering" them, and allow them to show FINRA a lower short position holding. They then use their Market Maker status to continue issuing shorts on a stock like GME, causing the price to fall, and the short positions of Melvin and Citadel Advisors to go up in value. It was an infinite money glitch, until retail won a trade. + +----- + +Want proof of more insider fuckery? + +Explain to me how Melvin just filed an amended report, showing that he magically found a holding position of $121,500,000 worth of PUT options of VIACOM from December, right after the Archegos liquidation happened? + +https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628110/000090571821000618/xslForm13F_X01/infotable.xml + +I'm sure that the SEC finds that reporting those puts 4 months after the due date is completely normal... considering the circumstances. + +Sorry to cut this off abruptly, but I'm tired and the screen is going hazy. Time for ape to sleep. If I tie anything else together, I'll be sure to break the tin-foil hat back out later. + +If I got anything wrong that you think needs attention, lemme know so I can edit it. I like my conspiracy theory, but it doesn't mean its 100% correct. + +TL;DR: + +Heg r fuk +Six years or so ago now, I was a normal working stiff handcuffed to my job. There wasn't a lot of extra cash. Couldn't seem to really get ahead. The thought of losing my engineering job was scary as hell, and would certainly result in my demise. The idea of how to get to retirement was impossible to get my head around. Jump forward six years, and we've got thirteen rental houses. Seven of them owned outright. Profit/month sits at $5k and that's paying existing mortgages heavy. We've set up a great team to deal with anything that comes our way. We make subpar houses in decent neighborhoods great and rent at a slightly higher than market rate to only solid tenants. We take care of them, and they take care of us. My wife and I continue to work our full time jobs, but am no longer afraid. We know we'll be just fine. I never could get my mind around retirement because how much would we really need to be comfortable? $5 mil? $10 mil? $20? It was unfathomable. Now I look at everything as how many houses. Many worry about health insurance. As I told my wife, for everyone else, its a $2k a month problem. For us, it's just three houses. It's that simple. When problems come up, and they always will, I reflect on where we'd be today if we didn't start the journey six years ago and it's a no brainier to keep going. I know six years from now, and many more properties, the answer is going to be the same. If anyone has any questions I can help with, feel free to message. One of my favorite things in this business is how willing people are to help each other. +Hi everyone. + +I'm just getting into algorithmic trading after having studied value investing on and off for a few years. However, there seems to be a barrier to entry for those that wish to get into this in terms of technical know how. + +As I'm just getting started, would anyone appreciate a series of posts on how I go through problems and how I solve them and in so doing perhaps answer a lot of beginner type questions or even spark discussion amongst the sub on better methods? It won't be focused on the algorithm but more of here's this technical issue and this is how I solved or accounted for it. All the way from nothing to having a working algorithm that executes orders autonomously. + +EDIT: + +Well the response is unanimous. I'll get started on this and post as time allows. +As post says. I'm shocked, sickened. In between PMs currently so I'm having to do a lot of the juggling with both PMs, the police, tenant's supportive housing who are impossible to contact given COVID, and getting their family contacted. Sounds like we'll need to do hazmat cleaning, which is backed up for weeks. + +No point to this post, just needed to post. + +Dealt with a lot of problems in <2yrs of doing REI, but this one is just about breaking me. We sometimes forget about the human element of this business. Ugh, I feel sick. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Thank you all for the kind works and support, it's been very encouraging dealing with this situation. Thank you. +I currently make $52K, and got a job offer for $65K for a "senior" role in my field. The benefits are all better too, with a much better 401K match. I've only worked at my current position for 10 months though, so I'm not sure leaving so soon would be a good thing. Is it bad to jump jobs so frequently? Would it look bad on my resume? + +EDIT: to add more specifics of the situation, my manager just went on maternity leave until November, and I assumed many of her responsibilities. If I were to accept this offer, I'd royally be screwing over the people i currently work with, and would no doubt burn the bridge behind me. +this post was posted and meant for r/financialindependence + I don't mean it to be on r/all.Stop reading if you are not from any of the FIRE groups. +---- + +As a FIREer, what is going for us is that majority of us who are more than half way there own large assets in stock market. I think a lot of us belong to the top 10%. + +As the world plunges into chaos and unemployment is at sky high, a lot of us FIREers are making seriously good money in the stock market. If you re heavy on NASDQ index or FANNG stocks, you are killing it. + +Does it ever cause a bit guilt in you that you are fairing so much better than the 90% population? That you don't even need to work and your portfolio is pulling in more money than average household income? + +I do. I feel guilty. I work in asset management and I feel the whole stock market is so rigged that it's a way for the rich to enrich themselves. One of my mentors once told me that if you want to be rich, you own assets and businesses and hire others to do the work for you. One day, you will be making money while you are sleeping. I've dreamed to get there one day like him. And I did. But I have tremendous amount of guilt that I don't do shit and I make 6 figures a year just by sitting on FANNG and other Tech stocks. + +Edit : Thx to kohox’s comment. Everyone should watch this video that really exposed how severe the America inequality has become. You should feel angry. + +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM + + +Here is the article as who own the stocks in America. +\[Edit\]: Moderator has asked me to remove the link so I will just show you the keywords to search. If you want to read it, just search for it. "how america 1 came to dominate stock ownership" + +Edit 2: If there is still anyone reading this. I was assumed to be 1) white 2) a man. That tells you the problems of this country. Just think about it. +I'm seeing an increasing number of news headlines about how a few lethargic teenagers are causing havoc in the marketplace. We're constantly portrayed as obnoxious jerks who don't care about their neighbors and seek to upend the status quo. We haven't done anything wrong; all we have done is buy in a stock with attractive hues that can be easily colored with crayons. Why are we regarded as brats who have come to terrorize the area? So, how many of you are over 30 and know what you're doing? + +Also, I ate a green crayon but it tasted like a blue crayon, how come? + +Edit: Take note, short hedge funds (SHF), BCG, mainstream media, Steve Cohen in particular, and Jim whatshisname, and recognize that we are full of fundamentalists who have finally discovered something to believe in, a small shrine of hope in a sea of disappointments. A guiding light for future generations to reflect on how silly the world was before 2022. It was all because one person saw right through the lies and spurred individual investors. And, as we all know, this is much larger than the stock market or simply investing. This extended beyond countries and histories founded on lies. +I hear it all the time - That first-time day traders are most likely going to lose money. Getting good at trading takes tons of research, practice and mistakes to learn. BUT, what if, you did the exact opposite of what you think you should do? + +Say you think a company will do well, so you think you should buy shares thinking you'll make money. However, instead of buying shares, with the knowledge that most first-time traders will end up losing money, what if you shorted the stock instead? Then, theoretically, the odds flip, and you have a 99% chance of making money. + +What am I missing, because obviously I am missing something, otherwise more people would have tried this already. + +Please explain to me how dumb I am and follow it up with why this would never work (I'm a new trader trying to learn). +Parents always knew raising a child in India – with its broken model of education – is expensive, and turning more so. Actual numbers support this belief. As per ET Online research, the overall expenditure of schooling a child in India in a private school from age 3 to age 17 is a whopping Rs 30 lakh. + +As per economists, the cost of rising private education has not been fully captured in inflation data as it is weighted at just 4.5% in the consumer prices index based on a decade-old model. EduFund says education costs have climbed by around 10-12% in India between 2012-20. Not only the tuition fee but transportation fees and examination fees are also hiked periodically which affects parents’ overall budget + +Elite higher education within India is steep as well. Enrolling in a top-rated engineering college, like one of the twenty-three IITs or any other private institution, for a 4-year BTech or a 3-year BSc, costs around Rs 4-20 lakh. Expenses for coaching for entrance exams like JEE, JEE (Main) and other exams range from Rs 30,000 to Rs 5 lakh. A top-rated management institution like one of the twenty IIMs, or any other private university in the country, costs Rs 8 lakh-Rs 23 lakh. Coaching for qualifying tests like CAT or GMAT has extra cost + +&#x200B; + +[https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/the-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-india-school-costs-30-lakh-college-a-crore/articleshow/93607066.cms](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/the-cost-of-raising-a-child-in-india-school-costs-30-lakh-college-a-crore/articleshow/93607066.cms) +I’ve been in foster family my whole life and a year ago i had to move out and live on my own. +Got a job, invested in good pc and started mining eth. Over time i invested some of my income to Eth and today i have 2.4 ETH. +Since i have job i can take a loan from the bank to buy my own apartment, the thing is i need to have 20% of apartments value (about 10k usd) and the other 80% is covered by bank. And today i accumulated that sum of money. +AND I’M SO FUCKING HYPED I WILL HAVE MY OWN PLACE AT 22 LETS FUCKING GO!!! +Anyway i wanted to thank you all on this and ethmine sub since i learned everything about crypto here, and wish you best of luck in life! +ECONOMICS 101 generally suggest nationalisation leads to inefficiency and following on from this understanding, there is often a lot of opposition to nationalising certain industries. + +How about the nationalisation of farms, manufacturing and similar industries. Have these been successfully achieved? + + +https://i.redd.it/5yrn4p51xdn11.png + +We are excited to announce the launch of [deltarelay.com](https://deltarelay.com/), a 0x based relayer with an emphasis on community governance. Specifically, Delta Relay will focus on providing + +1. **A free, autonomous token listing process driven by community voting** +2. **Technology specifically designed to support potentially millions of tokens one day** +3. **A market without middleman cost. 0% trading fee — forever** + +See more on [https://medium.com/@deltarelay/introducing-delta-relay-2cacaa6e6fbb](https://medium.com/@deltarelay/introducing-delta-relay-2cacaa6e6fbb) + +**Delta Relay is the decentralized exchange of the community, by the community, for community.** + +Join our community and be one of us! + +Website：[https://deltarelay.com](https://deltarelay.com/) + +Twitter：[https://twitter.com/RelayDelta](https://twitter.com/RelayDelta) + +Reddit：[https://www.reddit.com/r/DeltaRelay](https://www.reddit.com/r/DeltaRelay) +I am listening to Eric Weinstein and he argues that a long term labor shortage should not exist and that a long term shortage in academics is artificial. The idea is that transformational change that would push more URM and women into STEM has been avoided due to over reliance on immigration. Also, many universities operate as businesses with the salaries of a large number of admins that count on large number of low paid TAs and RAs to make financial sense. For grad students, many domestic students do not choose to get a PhD simply because it does not make economic sense unless immigration esp from a poorer country is also included. + +However, the other side of the argument is simply that US and European schools are able to attract international talent where as China or Japan cannot. Now if we ignore the T100 or even T200 research universities in the US, the rest that have PhD programs are still full of international students. Can this argument that any Western school has a bit of of a cachet? Is this cachet the chance for immigration? +&#x200B; + +# Edit: Numbers from RobinHood case are alleged so far, not proven. I cannot edit the post title. That being said, results of Deep ITM CALLs comes up with roughly the same 226.42%, which is quite telling. We also see that PHLX exchange is used to buy and exercise these calls almost immediately - exactly as outlined in the SEC document on how to shift a short position to become synthetic. + +# 0. Preface + +I am not a financial advisor and I do not provide financial advice. Thoughts here are my opinion, and others are speculative. + +Shout out to king /u/broccaaa for their contributions. I always figured that your assumptions were correct that the SHFs were using these Deep ITM CALLs to hide SI%, but we never got some quick maths behind it to see if it was true. (Maybe we did though! Sorry if I did not see anyone's posts about this) + +Well, this is for you /u/broccaaa, and all the apes. + +[Spreading Love To All](https://preview.redd.it/seveg72frd771.png?width=466&format=png&auto=webp&s=820b960584c2976dfe040f84463f84e3d9ba1ad3) + +# 1. GME SI% Is A Minimum Of 226.42%; Shorts Were Hidden With Deep ITM CALLs + +Way way back in time, since many of you probably feel like you've aged years over the course of 6 months, there was a blip of **226.42**% SI in January. Many believed this was a glitch: + +[https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/GME\/comments\/lgjztf\/wtf\_is\_going\_on\_with\_finra\_is\_it\_7846\_or\_22642\/](https://preview.redd.it/scgcw5t6qd771.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=10059cac48bcb52fdb8cbc8d27743f3dcff97166) + +~~That's what many may have thought, that it was just a glitch, until recently a~~ [~~Class Action against RobinHood~~](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o6mp0c/from_class_action_against_rh_look_at_that_juicy/) ~~proved that was, indeed, the SI% upon January 15th, 2021:~~ + +Edit: Thank you much for everyone's replies. We must consider this as still speculative and not proven as it is a number alleged by the plantiff. + +Allegedly, [per a Class Action against RobinHood](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o6mp0c/from_class_action_against_rh_look_at_that_juicy/), the SI% was 226.42% upon January 15th, 2021: + +[https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/Superstonk\/comments\/o6mp0c\/from\_class\_action\_against\_rh\_look\_at\_that\_juicy\/](https://preview.redd.it/vnlimw17qd771.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=079aa90f257df07a297b6c5d8961e6500bc17139) + +Put yourself in the SHF's shoes. You have a shitload of retail buy pressure going on. You're way overshorted. What do you do? Do you cover? Pfft. Nah. That's way too much. Impossible to cover. Absolutely screwed. + +Lucky for you the SEC [has identified malicious options practices](https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf) which can be used for just such an occasion to make it appear that you've covered. + +Let's say you want to make it "appear" that you covered your short. You can perform a buy-write trade with a bona-fide Market Maker. Who might help you out as a bona-fide Market Maker? **Citadel** might come to mind (not saying it's them, just an example since they are well known)! The trade ends up being the following: + +1. Trader A who needs to hide their short position enters the buy-write trade with Trader B (Citadel). +2. Trader A sells a Deep ITM CALL to Trader B (Citadel). +3. Trader A simultaneously buys shares from Trader B (Citadel). +4. Trader A now appears to have purchased shares to cover their short position, and Trader B (Citadel) gets a small amount of cash in return. + +* They tend to trade Deep ITM CALLs that have little to no OI so that the trade is almost guaranteed to be between Trader A and Trader B. +* Trader B tends to exercise these CALLs **on the same day.** **And this is exactly what we have been seeing because CALL OI does not increase.** +* The net effect on this is that Trader B has looped around their shares. They sold them to Trader A, and then got them back through exercising the CALL. Meanwhile, Trader A has "covered" their original short position but now they are "short" the CALL, meaning it is now a synthetic short. + +Here is the supporting text [from the SEC itself](https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf) if you want to verify for yourself. A report from 2013 titled "**Strengthening Practices for Preventing and Detecting Illegal Options Trading Used to Reset Reg SHO Close-out Obligations**": + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/eckz2hh7qd771.png?width=794&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec5f2fe9ca82bfba28eac658aac8fd3eb5c21d5e) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/ttjlxv28qd771.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=0eaaba948743cc947567322eba21603acf2ac2df) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/pti33wf8qd771.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&s=237494bf40c19dd2ef0771f42168bbf3ca90d6cb) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/zq8z28y8qd771.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=c80ec2e4932aa8e5660bcb8da4b88871611a377f) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/2zah2nc9qd771.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=df0a14005a591657d993ea153a5240516417f875) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/about\/offices\/ocie\/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf Section II](https://preview.redd.it/sjip9hp9qd771.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1848c26e64e7c9806e77e5b60bc2f1a4c7feacc8) + +&#x200B; + +So, they can utilize Deep ITM CALLs to hide their short positions. + +We don't care about identifying Trader A and Trader B in this case. Just the fact that trades occurred on these Deep ITM CALL strikes and that OI is unaffected the day thereafter. That's enough to support the above theory that they're utilizing this practice to make it 'appear' that they've covered their short position. + +Check out what /u/broccaaa's data identified. Tons and tons of Deep ITM CALLs were traded in January prior to SI% dropping off of a cliff. By [my estimations](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/), about 1,100,000 CALL OI was traded prior to January 29th SI Report Date: + +[\/u\/broccaaa Data on Deep ITM CALL Volumes Vs FTDs of GME](https://preview.redd.it/0hp6hvx9qd771.png?width=1789&format=png&auto=webp&s=19d5261cf1cd7ec7995c12409bd46d2116094203) + +The SI Report Date of January 29th matters because that is the cutoff of when FINRA will [require settlement of short interest numbers](https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest) for the next SI report date. The next SI report date following January 29th settlement is February 12th. + +And we can see that after the mayhem of Deep ITM CALL purchases, SI% dropped from 226.42% of the January 15th report, to 30.2% upon February 12th: + +[https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/stocks\/NYSE\/GME\/short-interest\/](https://preview.redd.it/qpvqagaaqd771.png?width=1683&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d54d763f3bb46a697c4ff2ee94148806bf928e3) + +With the difference in SI% from 226.42% on January 15th down to 30.2% on February 12th, **we can assume that they have not covered their short position but rather hid their short position in synthetics if we can come up with a roughly equivalent SI% from the approximate Deep ITM CALL purchases.** + +The float of GME in January was approximately 57,840,000. + +The estimated Deep ITM CALL OI that was swapped is \~1,100,000 OI = \~110,000,000 shares worth. + +Which then gives an estimated SI% reduction of \~110,000,000 / 57,840,000 = \~190.18% shorts hidden between January 15th and February 12th report date. + +And since SI% on February 12th was 30.2%, then that gives a grand total of 190.18% + 30.2% = **220.38% SI per estimations**. + +That's dangerously close to the reported 226.42% SI from January 15th. + +So with that in mind - do you think they covered? + +[Estimations of SI&#37; Based on Deep ITM CALL Purchases Up To January 29th](https://preview.redd.it/oieer6saqd771.png?width=1878&format=png&auto=webp&s=3355b8760408907f165bf7687581ce722bedc844) +Modern accounting allows for a small trick that many companies take advantage of. As an investor, you should be wary of it. + +The trick is to cleverly conceal stock-based compensation (SBC) within share repurchases. + +Some investors look at the statement of cash flows and calculate Free Cash Flow (FCF) by taking the Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) and subtracting CapEx. Unfortunately, SBC is treated as a non-cash expense and added back to Net Income in computing CFO, which means that the FCF number calculated is likely inflated. + +More astute investors realize that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. So, they treat SBC as a cash expense and ignore the line item that adds it back to Net Income in the statement of cash flows. While they are closer to the truth, they too are likely underestimating the impact of SBC. + +Let me explain with the example of Apple. Here’s their [latest 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019321000105/aapl-20210925.htm). + +If you look at their statement of cash flows, they have a SBC expense of [$7,906 million](https://imgur.com/a/Dtcf2ff) in the operating section. + +So far so good. Now let’s take a look at the [financing section](https://imgur.com/a/ZR4IN6G) (all numbers are in millions): + +* Proceeds from issuance of common stock = $1,105 +* Payments for taxes related to net share settlement of equity awards = ($6,556) \* +* Repurchases of common stock = ($85,971) +* Net cash flow related to common stock transactions = ($91,422) + +*\* negative sign represents cash outflow* + + You can see the shares outstanding in the [balance sheet](https://imgur.com/a/uzvFqwb) (all numbers are in thousands): + +* Shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2021 = 16,426,786 +* Shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2020 = 16,976,763 +* Net change in shares = 549,977 + +So Apple used $91.4 billion to repurchase 550 million shares. This works out to $166 per share. But AAPL shares never traded as high as $166 in fiscal 2021 (Oct-2020 to Sep-2021). Something’s fishy here. + +Let’s look at the notes to the financial statements. Specifically [Note 8](https://imgur.com/a/Q6qxSri). There you go. The company repurchased not 550 but 656 million shares. But it also issued 106 million shares to employees. + +So, of the $91 billion cash used in common stock transactions, only $76.6 billion (550/656 * 91) was truly used for repurchase. The other $14.8 billion was actually used for SBC (distributed as shares instead of dollars). + +This means that the actual SBC of $14.8 billion is nearly double the reported figure of $7.9 billion! + +Where does this $6.9 billion differential show up? Not on the balance sheet, the income statement, or the statement of cash flows. It shows up in the lower share count, or a lack of it. There’s your sleight of hand. + +Here’s a [summarized view](https://imgur.com/a/Y8wL5le) of this gimmick. This isn't to pick on Apple. A lot of companies do this and it may be a natural consequence of the compensation policies. The lesson for us investors is that we should be skeptical of the reported SBC and repurchase numbers and adjust our cash flow expectations accordingly. Cheers! +Yes, I know 50 million tons of steel export is a lot, but comparatively, the Chinese *aren't exporting* almost a billion tons which I'd just logically assume are bought and used in China's domestic markets. Is this just the pace of Chinese constructions? Is this to support the concrete usage on the scale of "China used more concrete in 3 years than the US used in the entire 20th century" ? This just seems like an insane number to me. + +I got my numbers from [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production). Correct me if I'm misinterpreting things or if I posted in the wrong sub (hopefully point me to the right sub). +I'm up more than 110x so I just sold a chunk and used it to pay off my mortgage. I now own 100% of my own apartment and am completely debt free, thanks to a rather small bitcoin investment 7 years ago. Even if Bitcoin were to crash down to zero, my life is going to be so much easier now that I essentially have more money every month. This is a life changing event for me. +(and then complain about it) + +The number of comments in threads saying that they don't want their shares called away after they sell covered calls is ridiculous. Know your risk. + +If it goes past your strike, you won. You made your profit. What more do you want? +Hoy! + +As per the thetagang philosophy, the plan is to sell options and see them loose value over time due to theta decay. There are plenty of other reasons to do it, but the core idea behind the theta play is to let time work for your advantage. + +I'll give a rundown of three approaches, and let you make your own conclusions on what strategy best fits you. + +* Weeklies: selling options expiring within a week, (0-7DTE \[Days To Expiry\]) +* 30-45 DTE: popularized by tastytrade, selling options that expire 1-1.5 month out +* LEAPs: 1 year or longer to expiry; + +**Let's benchmark..** + +I'll compare the following 3 setups here: + +* 6DTE (weekly), Feb 12 expiry +* 41DTE, March 19 expiry +* 349 DTE, Jan 21, 2022 expiry + +And look at 4 (very) different tickers: SPY (high volume, low thrills index fund), AAPL (solid tech company & growth potential), KO (solid non-tech, low thrills) and GME (the meme du jour). + +I will use the 41DTE, \~0.30 delta as our reference for annualized income, where annualized return percentage (ARP) is given by ARP = 365 \* premium / (collateral at stake) / DTE \* 100%. + +**EDIT:** As pointed out by [/u/buzzante](https://www.reddit.com/user/buzzante/), this doesn't take into account compounding interest. The quick premium you get on a shorter DTE can then be repeatedly reinvested, favoring shorter DTEs. On the flip side, selling longer dated DTE gives you more upfront premium that you could already reinvest. I think overall compounding benefits longer DTEs for the same percentage returns (like getting paid upfront for one year vs getting paid in weekly installments), but for sake of simplicity and my sanity, I won't redo the math. + +The idea is, if you can get X% annualized return on a 41DTE option, how would an X% annualized return (in terms of greeks & strike prices) look like for a 6DTE and 349 DTE option. + +To keep things simple, I will only look at CSPs (cash secured puts), no calls, margin plays, hedges, etc, and use the mid of the Ask/Bid spread as our premium price, as quoted on Friday's (Feb 5) close. + +**SPY** (price at close 387.71$) + +41DTE: 375$ strike, 5.87$ premium, ARP = 13.59%, delta \~0.3, **gamma 0.012**, IV 22%, OpenInt 37920 + +So I am looking for a similar ARP for 6DTE and 349DTE options. + +\[..find a premium/(collateral at stake) ratio = ARP \* DTE / 365 / 100..\] + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|375$|5.87$|13.59%|\~0.3|**0.012**|22%|37920| +|6|380$|0.81$|12.96%|\~0.18|**0.030**|15%|15550| +|6|381$|0.925$|14.76%|\~0.20|**0.034**|15%|4593| +|349|**430$**|56.895$|13.83%|\~0.65|**0.005**|34%|<100| + +**AAPL** (price at close 136.76$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|130$|3.60$|24.65%|\~0.3|**0.007**|33%|<100| +|6|132$|0.425$|19.59%|\~0.16|**0.048**|26%|3280| +|6|133$|0.595$|26.99%|\~0.21|**0.059**|26%|4200| +|349|**165$**|38.20$|24.21%|\~0.61|**0.007**|39%|<300| + +**KO** (price at close 49.65$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|47.5$|0.93$|17.43%|\~0.3|**0.076**|27%|8193| +|6|46.0$| 0.085$|11.24%|\~0.07|**0.052**|39%|2659| +|6|46.5$|0.11$|19.59%|\~0.09|**0.066**|36%|1130| +|349|**55$**|8.80$|16.73%|\~0.61|**0.029**|26%|3894| + +**GME** (price at close 63.77$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|65$|27.15$|371.84%|\~0.296|**0.005**|326%|600| +|6|24$| 3.125$|372.60%|\~0.034|**0.001**|470%|734| + +349DTE: NOT POSSIBLE! For a 370% return, you'd need the premium to be more than 3x the strike; + +**How to interpret this** + +**1)** Selling LEAPs ~~are~~ is a pretty bad deal (in terms of annualized interest). For a comparative return with 41DTE, your strike price is going to be higher than the current stock price. As in, the stock price needs to swing up for the option to expire worthless, as opposed to NOT drop too much which lower DTE. + +**2)** The higher the DTE, the worse the liquidity (bigger spreads, lower open interest, etc). Makes it that much harder to get a good deal. + +**3)** Look at the 6DTE vs 41DTE strike prices (for the same annualized returns): they aren't that much different (except GME.. more about that later). So adjusted for risk, shorter DTE puts are more likely to expire OTM. Or just look at the deltas.. very compelling. + +**4)** The GME conundrum: if you're gonna scalp the IV, go for where it's the highest; what's more likely, GME finishing below 21$ in 6 days, or below 38$ in 41 days? (the two break-even points). You could even pick a 6DTE with strike 14$ for a 'meager' 77.6% ARP (that beats selling puts on AAPL or KO). + +**5)** We are safe to conclude that I don't have a life; and if you got this far, neither do you ;) + +**EDIT: Risks, risks, risks** + +Seasoned folks are smart to point out that I didn't get into all the risks shorter DTEs pose. It wouldn't be fair to ignore it, so here's a rundown on what might go wrong: + +* pin risk: it's tempting to let weeklies expire worthless, but after hours price movements after expiration can suddenly turn against you; while this could be avoided if you always close your positions, there's some extra value to be had by trying to see at least some of them expire worthless; +* early assignment: the closer you are to expiration, the more likely it is that this would/could happen with a sudden and violent breach of your strike price; as you are going to have significantly more trades with lower DTEs, this adds some extra risk to the mix that can't be quantified with backtestings; +* **gamma risk**: this is the **biggest one**; this deserves its own post, but here's a solid [writeup](https://steadyoptions.com/articles/why-you-should-not-ignore-negative-gamma-r86/) with pretty charts that does a better job than I ever could; in short, when selling options, you're negatively exposed to gamma; the closer the option to expiration, the higher the gamma, the more the value of the option fluctuates with the underlying stock's movement; a 30 delta 45DTE option will have lower gamma than a 30 delta 7DTE option; I updated my numbers to also include gamma - but I think most people would agree that for the same ARP and underlying stock but different DTEs, a lower delta + lower gamma combo is a better risk-adjusted bet (see GME 41DTE vs 6DTE or KO 41DTE vs 6DTE delta & gamma numbers); in most other cases, shorter DTE plays (for the same normalized ARP) would lower your delta but increase your gamma; it's a trade-off everyone needs to decide for themselves +* **IV risk/gains:** the shorter the DTE, the bigger impact IV movements have on gamma (see [this](https://optionstradingiq.com/gamma-risk-explained/) for pretty charts); with IV dropping, your OTM options can experience a gamma boost, that can slap you in the face; this is somewhat compensated though by premium lowering on average due to the IV drop; but if the stock price moved against you, it becomes that much harder to roll out /manage your losses; + +**EDIT: Back-testing, always** + +The common wisdom is that 45DTE 16-20 delta have been the clear winner in back-testing and has a better risk-adjusted win-rate than any other configuration. Check [spintwig](https://spintwig.com/spy-short-put-45-dte-leveraged-options-backtest/#Prior_Research) and tasty trade video where this the most common conclusion made. + +However, there is no size fits all; 45DTE 16-20 is **NOT** optimal theta play on meme stocks or for earnings plays (in both cases IV will predictably drop), or growth stocks (where buy&hold beats CSP in benchmarks). + +The only way to settle true winrates is by back-testing, but once accounting for active management, early closing, margin management, etc. even back-testing is just a rough estimation. + +I feel it would be irresponsible of me NOT to emphasize the overwhelming amount of evidence/benchmarks in favor of 45DTE 16-20 delta plays - but it's also not an optimal play for every situation, and this shouldn't be a controversial statement :/. + +**Conclusions** + +If it's theta you're after, shorter DTEs have higher returns. Not necessarily higher risk (**EDIT:** yes, likely higher risks, see the part on risks, risks, risks) mind you - if you pick your deltas (**EDIT:** and gammas) carefully. Makes sense, theta works best closest to expiration; a lot can happen in one year to a stock (hit record highs or go bankrupt), much less in one day. **EDIT:** There's this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/lajwxo/why_theta_gang_recommends_you_roll_options_from/) with pretty graphs that sum it up better than I could. + +Shorter DTEs also require more management and more involvement. Reevaluating your holdings every day (if you're selling weeklies) vs every week (with 30-45DTE) can be demanding, especially with a diversified portfolio. + +And finally, ***you do you***. I think the 30-45DTE philosophy is quite popular with this sub (and selling early when hitting 50% return), but the gains aren't really from theta in those cases (well, a mix of delta and theta), but rather stonks going up. ~~It's a solid, easy strategy, but leaves quite a lot of value on the table.~~ (**EDIT:** or does it.. back-testing results debate this. It's irresponsible of me to make such a categorical statement). + +Agree or disagree, we should probably talk about this. I flaired it as DD, but it's more of a meta-analysis of theta strategy as a whole. + +EDIT2: tables everywhere.. +I currently have around $50k in Robinhood holding VTI and QQQ and some other stocks. I have around $100k in my checking account collecting dust. I want to continue investing VTI and QQQ but not sure if I should use Robinhood or Fidelity or something. I love the Robinhood UI but every one in here seems to say to avoid on Robinhood. Is there any issue with holding large sums of money in Robinhood? +Hi everyone. + +I'm just getting into algorithmic trading after having studied value investing on and off for a few years. However, there seems to be a barrier to entry for those that wish to get into this in terms of technical know how. + +As I'm just getting started, would anyone appreciate a series of posts on how I go through problems and how I solve them and in so doing perhaps answer a lot of beginner type questions or even spark discussion amongst the sub on better methods? It won't be focused on the algorithm but more of here's this technical issue and this is how I solved or accounted for it. All the way from nothing to having a working algorithm that executes orders autonomously. + +EDIT: + +Well the response is unanimous. I'll get started on this and post as time allows. +I don't know if someone else here can relate. But after hitting my number I started enjoying much more of the free things I couldn't do while I was too busy making money. Playing chess, going for a swim in the ocean, going for a hike, walking my dog, cooking. About 99% of things I enjoy the most now are free. And they have always been free but I just couldn't enjoy them much before because for some reason I was always feeling guilty about not being rich enough or something. +I have a mother and son who has helped cleaning my house for the past 10 years. + +The son started as a teenager and now he’s an adult. I sense that he’s doing house cleaning to help his mom and whole family (younger siblings) as mom doesn’t speak much English. They are hardworking, don’t take much vacation, and generous too. When I lost my dog, the mom came over and hugged me, crying together. When I gave birth to my son, they gave generous present that is probably at least half of their paycheck. + +Today, I found out that they don’t have enough money to buy Christmas tree. I happened to have extra and gave it to them with extra Christmas bonus (and salary raise). + +I am not sure if it’s too late for him to go to college and his mom probably needs extra help so it’s not feasible. What kind of help that people like me can help to provide upward mobility for someone like him? If I start charity, I would like to help someone closer at home really. +So who is actually buying Nokia? Who many of those who see this post believe it can moon like GME? I bought 100 shares but I’m just curious to how many people are still trying to make this bread. Please upvote and comment. Genuinely curious +I apologise to everyone but I need to tell people but I can not tell anyone in real life. + +This afternoon a client agreed to allow my partners and me to finance their expansion. It means I have created about 100 regional jobs and a new export market for Australian-made medicines. + +I created a business model that means the vast majority of the profit remains in Australia while creating new US-listed company worth $100 million. And I get about 2.5% of all the capital. + +Australian medical tech will be locally manufactured and exported throughout the world. + +As always there are many a slip between the cup and the lips but assuming it goes OK within six weeks everything will be done. +What's good my fellow apes, its yo boy letthebandplay777 with a crucial update to my FOIA Request to the CFTC. As some of you know, about 3 weeks ago I submitted a formal FOIA Request, reaching out to the CFTC in relation to documentation and portfolio holdings for any total return swap and future roll over contracts being held by the major institutions that are short GME. + +&#x200B; + +I received a response today from the lawyer of the CFTC : + +"The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is continuing to process the attached FOIA request you submitted on August 31, 2021.  Upon inquiry with the CFTC’s staff offices,  we would like additional clarification on the specific records you are seeking.  + +Are you available anytime this week for a brief phone call to discuss your request? + +Thank you," + +This is my first time doing this dance with a FOIA Request and I honestly did not expect to get this far, so I would love the assistance of some of our top wrinkles for this. I have come this far and they are ready to produce the materials, it sounds like they want super specifics regarding exactly what derivative positions I am asking to see. + +I plan on doing my homework now, and setting up the phone call for this Friday. I need to come correct because these guys are going to fight tooth and nail to give up the documents and we can't let them keep it a secret. + +Now where EXACTLY under the umbrella of the CFTC do Total Return Swaps/Future Rollover contracts fall under and during what exact time periods should I be looking for? I will post a copy of my original request and you guys can help me condense it further into a silver bullet that they cannot spin their way out of. + +"Dear Commodity Futures Trading Commission Under the Freedom of Information + +Act, 5 U.S.C. subsection 552, I am herby requesting information relating to all + +forms of Total Return Swap documentation, contractual obligations, percent of + +portfolio holdings, and or agreements, as well as the terms of agreement, + +through the dates December 1st, 2020 through June 1, 2021; relating directly to + +the following counterparties; The CFTC, Citadel enterprises LLC, Citadel + +Securities, Citadel Technology, Susquehanna International, Susquehanna + +Securities, Capital Ventures International, Susquehanna Advisors Group , CVI + +opportunities fund, G1 execution Services, Darby Financial services, Melvin + +Capital, and Point 72." + +This is my original request, its a wide net and I knew they would want more specifics. However I did NOT think I'd be talking on the phone with the lawyer from the CFTC. Any help you guys can give me would be fucking awesome. If I can secure this information we will have undeniable and clear proof once and for all that SHORTS DID NOT CLOSE their positions. + +God Speed Apes + +Letthebandplay777 + +EDIT/UPDATE: Hey my fellow apes, just checking in with a fresh update. I originally planned to call them today however my schedule could not accommodate that, so I officially scheduled the call for Tuesday next week! I just wanna thank everyone who reached out to me for advice and will give a major shout out to once I get a chance to reply to them! +I apologise to everyone but I need to tell people but I can not tell anyone in real life. + +This afternoon a client agreed to allow my partners and me to finance their expansion. It means I have created about 100 regional jobs and a new export market for Australian-made medicines. + +I created a business model that means the vast majority of the profit remains in Australia while creating new US-listed company worth $100 million. And I get about 2.5% of all the capital. + +Australian medical tech will be locally manufactured and exported throughout the world. + +As always there are many a slip between the cup and the lips but assuming it goes OK within six weeks everything will be done. +In my credit card's April-May billing cycle, I spent **$770** eating out as *one person.* I decided to track my spending in this area by putting all my meals I've been eating out on a credit card used only for that purpose. I looked at the end of the month and was absolutely dumbfounded at the amount of money I was spending eating out. I thought it might be $300ish dollars! + +Anyway, I paid off the credit card (angrily) and made a vow I would eat at home at every possible meal I could for the foreseeable future. I've spent about $70 a week on groceries, (was about $50/week prior) so plus $42, I went from and $1000/mo food expense (how the ever living hell was I making ends meet with this?) to $322/mo. And the kicker is I still have tons of food leftover at the end of the week. The only two meals I bought this month were a BK chicken sandwich while I was on the road and a birthday meal for someone. + +It feels awesome to have a 70% reduction in spending in this area just due to self control. + +I'm planning on using this self control in other areas. Next one is booze and cigarettes. Then my shitty habit of mobile game micro transactions. + +Sometimes I don't know how I've made it this far without being broke. +I am referring to this [investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/were-there-any-periods-major-deflation-us-history.asp#:~:text=There%20have%20been%20several%20deflationary,again%20between%201865%20to%201900.&text=of%20the%20country.-,The%20most%20recent%20example%20of%20deflation%20occurred%20in%20the%2021st,economists%20as%20the%20Great%20Recession) article, in which they say deflation was worrisome to economists from 2007 to 2009, because they thought it would lead to a prolonged recession. + +It is my understanding though, that deflation would increase the purchasing power of people and decrease the price of goods and services. So how could that be a bad thing? What am I missing? + +Edit: Thanks for everyone who contributed. This is actually a lot for me to take in and understand, I am going to have to read and re-read this thread to truly understand. I appreciate the thoroughness. +I am trying to raise awareness of this awesome stock, so if you like the dd I'd appreciate you upvote it on r/trakstocks where there is a much higher viewership [(1) Release the Kraken - Autonomous Vehicles, AI, Battery & Sensor Tech, RaaS and clean energy play : trakstocks (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/trakstocks/comments/lm102y/release_the_kraken_autonomous_vehicles_ai_battery/?sort=new) + + + +https://preview.redd.it/0h5hz9x533i61.png?width=369&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d312c3e84434238ab87870d221446716116646b + +Kraken Robotics + +Ticker: **KRKNF** US OTC/**PNG** Candian exchange (Stocktwits- PNG.CA) + +This is my research on Kraken Robotics. This company should see strong near-term price increases and I expect at least **8-12x** growth in the next 24 months. As of this writing the share price is sitting at **$0.50**. + +Before you read any further, I want you to understand what I look for in an investment; I invest in companies that are undervalued, possess world changing technology and have a large potential catalyst, be it financial changes, a market inflection point, buy out or pending regulatory approval. For it to make sense to me, the company must provide me with a large near-term upside and continued long-term growth. Basically, I am looking for penny stocks that should not be. Kraken fits all these requirements for me and is just starting to pick up speed in the industry. I will continue to update this, but I feel that it will be moving quickly so I would like to get this in front of everyone’s eyes ahead of time. I am not a financial advisor, I am a mom and a professional fire officer, do your own DD. + +My last DD here was for MVIS which was under $7 and less than a month later is at $20 – Penny Queen + +**About** Kraken Robotics is a 6-year-old robotics company specializing in autonomous vehicles, high-end, software-centric sensors, subsea batteries, and thrusters for military and commercial customers. They are now providing AI assisted RaaS (Robots as a service) and they are transitioning their business model to focus on recurring revenue from subsea data acquisition and data analytics. + +Their key areas of innovation are **autonomous vehicles**, **battery and sensor technology**, **AI data analytics and robotics as a service** (RaaS) + +Kraken is an up-and-coming player that has gone from a workforce of 20 to over 150 in the past couple of years as they have been acquiring companies and their technology while expanding their operations. They are a growing presence in the 10-billion-dollar underwater vehicle market, ranked by [Deloitte](https://www.thetelegram.com/business/local-business/kraken-robotics-leads-east-coast-tech-companies-on-canadas-fastest-growing-list-521886/) as the fastest growing tech company on the East coast (Canada). + +**Financials -** Kraken’s financial will change drastically in mid-April when they release their 2020 Q4 which will show a 40 million dollar contract they received. This contract alone is equal to half their market cap. + +Their current revenue stream supports a **$1 price point**, with a $6 price point factoring in unrecognized contracts, continued sector growth with similar contract capturing. I see $1 in the next 6 weeks and $3 by end of year. + +**Market cap of 86.33M** 165.01M outstanding shares and an extremely low float of only 112.29M – insider ownership sits right around 30%. Con- there is no real institutional ownership. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KRKNF?p=KRKNF&guccounter=1) + +\*\*Typical volume for Kraken has been about 178k a day, the recent contract news has pushed this to **1.3m today**, telling me it is ready to move on up. The lack of attention this company has received is a major reason for its low price point. + +Kraken raised 10m in October 2020 to expand its robotics as a service business, on leasehold improvements, equipment, parts and inventory and possible future acquisitions. + +[Q3 Fiscal 2020](https://krakenrobotics.com/themencode-pdf-viewer/?file=https://krakenrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Kraken-Q3-2020-Financial-Statements.pdf) + +[Management Discussion and Analysis Q3](https://krakenrobotics.com/themencode-pdf-viewer/?file=https://krakenrobotics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Kraken-MDA-Q3-2020.pdf) + +**Products -** + +**Autonomous Vehicles** + +· AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles) + +· USV (unmanned surface vehicles) + +· Towfish (Towed underwater vehicle) + +· ROV (remotely operated vehicle) + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/n1i3kdb733i61.jpg?width=747&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=575b54811f7e01e56bf51bffa9143062527e2068 + +**Katfish subsea pressure neutral batteries** + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/bj3fr8bd33i61.jpg?width=491&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0d320adbac84d71d4b2984f4ae4c727e9d881901 + +**Software-Centric Sensors –** These innovative sensors provide ultra-high-resolution imagery of the sea floor, think of it as GoogleMaps – water edition. + +· **SaS Sonar**\-synthetic aperture sonar provides 15x high image resolution than conventional side scanning sonar, with larger coverage area. + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/xhexsxi833i61.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce83bbfef97b51056c7f33878e4e5df56d62a4da + +**· Seavision** – 1st ever full color 3-D underwater laser with real-time processing, live video streams and + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/fhkqai2a33i61.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=64ec67da626148885aa1ca4221d69abf98f7104d + +**Rim Mounted Thrusters** + + + + +https://preview.redd.it/14cb9f2b33i61.jpg?width=439&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1351abf269c40e067245e6854e4787cc776fc2a6 + + + + + + + +**Market and Application –** Representatives of Kraken Robotics, the underwater vehicle market could be worth $10 billion annually by 2025. + +The military market encompasses naval mine countermeasures, anti-submarine warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. They believe this could be a US$4 billion market by 2025. + +The commercial market includes far more, cable & pipeline surveys, subsea mapping, oil rig and offshore wind and wave energy asset inspection, maintenance repair and environmental monitoring. They believe this could be a US$6 billion market by 2025. + +**Applications -**Their IP and sensor technology are also applicable to some space exploration and potentially automotive sensor applications. + +**Major Catalysts** + +· **Q4** – Their Q4 financials will be a gamechanger, expected in mid-April, should show the first payments from the Danish contract. + +· **Gaining traction** in military defense – They recently secured a large mine hunting contract with the Danish military for $40 million (nearly their market cap), beating out major players in the industry (Thales, Northrup Grumman and Raytheon) in the process. They have also secured contracts with Poland and the US, which are widely considered a foot in the door for larger NATO contracts. [(1) Kraken Robotics - #StoryToTell - OSC Video Series - Episode 1 - YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1XtAd_YVms) +My Investments professor posted this question, I was wondering if anyone had any insight: + +5 bonus points if anyone show us an investment that has yielded an annually compounded rate of return of 10.82% without a loss in more than 70 years. It is available if you know where to look. + +My first thought was a piece of property, or maybe a piece of artwork? +While it's great that people are getting involved and earning money, it's starting to get annoying seeing these posts everyday. They take away from the substance of this great community. I believe a weekly or so megathread, similar to what other channels do, would better serve this channel & community. +Let me explain please. + +I am totally new to this Economics, finance, etc field. I am from India and I am studying high school (NCERT, equivalent to 'AP' level I guess) textbooks on Economics and have been liking Economics so far. The problem is when I searched online and started exploring the criticisms of Economics, I became more and more skeptical. And YES, I have read the Economics wiki of Reddit. But I couldn't find any example in it where it says that a specific Economics model ever 'worked' like predicting something, helping a firm, helping the government, etc. I know a little bit about my country's Economic history and it has been quite bad. The guy who helped our government make 5 year plans was a renowned Statistician named P. Mahalanobis. And it hadn't been really good. That made me even more skeptical. + +I have read the criticisms of Economics on Wiki, the extreme criticism of mathematical Economics on Wiki, Quora, articles, Economic Institute websites like Mises, Heritage, EconLib, Investopedia, etc. and so far the response seems quite negative. I have seen reference to many Economic model, but none of them has any real life example cited, like any successful prediction with a model. I am not talking about only the 'Great Recession' but every firms and government activities - have Economics ever helped achieve anything goal or predict anything well? My confusion increased when I saw Marxists, Austrians, etc taking credit for predicting the 2008 Economic crisis and saying that it is all the fault of capitalism/socialism respectively. + +See, I come from a Science background. I know how bad models can be. People can say whatever they want but even in Science like Physics, equations often don't predict or solve everything. But still, we have seen real life applications like electronic appliances, gadgets, military equipment, nuclear missiles, etc while are direct evidence of the models of Science. Does Economics have any success like this? I understand that its a social science and a new Science and I am OK with giving it some slack for not being able to predict something, but has Economics ever had any success in either micro or macro scale? +As if coping with my dad's death isn't enough, in the past few months my mom has constantly had to deal with newly opened credit cards in his name with large amounts of credit used. She's had to contact all the different accounts and tell them that my dad passed away and they've been getting cleared one by one, but more keep coming. It's a huge hassle and I don't know how to stop it from happening. If we've already reported his death to social security, how is anyone even able to open new lines of credit under his name? Some of the credit card collectors are threatening to recoup the money from my mom's home. How do I make this stop? + +EDIT: Wow, thank you for all the replies and advice/well wishes! I'm working on freezing his credit so hopefully we can end this madness. Hope this post can also help others prevent themselves and their families from having to go through this as well. +&#x200B; + +[https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-falls-10-33747-ether-down-14-2021-05-23/](https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-falls-10-33747-ether-down-14-2021-05-23/) + +&#x200B; + +> Bitcoin fell 13% on Sunday after the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency suffered another sell-off that left it down nearly 50% from the year's high. +> +>Bitcoin fell to $32,601 at 1800 GMT (2 p.m. ET), losing $4,899.54 from its previous close. It hit a high for the year of $64,895.22 on April 14. +> +> Ether , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 17% to $1,905 on Sunday, losing $391.31 from its previous close. +I'm just gonna keep it real. There's me and some others on this board that are aware of the problem, and occasionally I'll talk about it inside various threads: Most of you trade like retards. Risk management is not in your vocabulary. There's no justification. No financial analysis. No technical analysis. No plan. It's just "High IV? OK me sell now." If this is honest to god how you trade, I'm gonna sound like a total dick here but you do deserve to lose everything you're trading with, if only to prevent you from losing an even bigger amount later on with your "fool proof strategy" of wheeling 100IVR stocks in a bull market. Unfortunately, a massively traumatic loss (or a few) seems to be the only way to get people to snap out of glaringly stupid trading methodologies. + +I said this a million times to people throughout 2020, but when you're in a bull panic people never listen until they get destroyed the second the market slows down even a bit. This isn't even tough. This is just a slow/chugachug type market, neutral-bullish, and a lot of people here are suffering badly on over-allocated positions, because they're in *deeply* overvalued garbage with prices built on sentiment rather than fundamentals. And if you don't understand how you can be "cash-secured" and still deeply over-allocated, you don't know what you're doing. I'd also say if you're trading theta strategies on momentum stocks, you probably also don't know what you're doing (Ah said it). But seriously, imagine where you'd be in a prolonged market contraction, which our overvalued equities market is just begging for at this point: little doggy sitting in the middle of the house on fire dot jpeg. + +IV is dead. Theta strategies are not the only strategies there are in trading. ADD active management usually does more harm than good -- sometimes there's just no trades. Maybe, just maybe, there's some market environments where your one-trick pony should sit the fuck still. Maybe then you'd be able to find the time to read a book or two on fundamental or technical analysis (preferably both), learn how to trade shares or long premium on stocks that actually deserve capital allocation, and stop this madness. + +Now let me show myself out so you can read more threads on how people hate their job and want to make 5k per month passive income off the wheel strategy. I'm beyond flattered that so many people think I, as a random internet guy, can so easily show them how to do that. +I am going to keep this brief, because I am seeing this narrative being blown up already through this subreddit and on various discords concerning the comment made on page 15, section 5 within DTC-2021-005. + +Allow me to elaborate: + +&#x200B; + +1. No, 005 is not a dud, its legitimately what many investors have been asking for. Understanding the context of the statement made in 005, specifically page 15, section 5 will help in fighting the FUD and understanding how IMPORTANT 005 is. +2. TO put it bluntly, the DTCC is covering their asses with the statement made on page 15, section 5. Its as simple as that. The statement made in the documentation (page 15, section 5) was purely for public facing knowledge, specifically for us apes, and any other inquiring eyes (lawyers, media etc). Why the hell would the DTCC admit on paper, on a public facing document that they knew of the illegal activities involving FTDs? Of course they are going to lie and lie more to CYA. That's what they do. +3. 005 essentially "forces" the DTCC's hand via a public facing document to acknowledge and plug up the holes that allow the issue of rehypothecated counterfeit shares being used to reset FTD's as well as add clarification for DTC members/pledgee's responsibilities, expectations, etc. 005 is made to acknowledge this issue without "acknowledging" that they knew and supported the rehypothecation of counterfeit shares used for various criminal acts. Once again, CYA. Please see u/weekenddev's interpretation on how this all ties together. +4. 005 is a ruling that, once again, according to the DTCC, via their little "comment" on page 15, section 5, "reinforces" their "stance" on how they "tackle" the issue as they legally are bound to do so. They try to subvert investor's expectation by stating that they already have been following the rulings within 005, and that 005 is simply a "reformatting" and clarification ruling. This is complete and utter bullshit. This document (whilst still important in the grand scheme of FTD's and how they are handled) and the DTCC's comment reeks of plausible deniability. +5. Note that 005 is unlike any of the rulings they have made in the past. I personally have combed through years of DTCC rulings the past several months and this is the first of its kind. Indeed they can lie through playing coy on paper, but we all know that 005 is here because of the current situation with GME and the state of the stock market at large. They cannot keep up this façade for much longer. +6. This ruling also is a narrative move. Once again, I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH, this ruling is extremely important to the DTC/CC's "CYA, hide the bodies" motive. The OCC, ICC, NSCC (801/002 this week or next Monday fyi) have made their moves, and now the DTCC is finished with theirs as we know it. + +TL;DR - 005 isn't just about the raw content/subject matter (greatly reducing the power of resetting FTD's, counterfeit share rehypothecation, pledgee accounts, access, responsibilities, etc). ITS ABOUT CYA through thinly veiled CONTEXT, risk transference, risk mitigation/control and playing coy with some statements injected in the new revision. And, oh boy with these new edits/remarks, the timing of its release and the soft doxxing they performed, well lets just say the DTCC is backed into a corner and individual investors' loud voices and energy has actually made a difference. + +Edit: I do want to note that I am currently going through the differences between the original 005 document and the current one. So far, a lot of fluff has been removed. I will update this page and potentially, if warranted, will make a separate post of all the important changes and removals the DTCC has performed. + +Edit 2: Grammar and clarification. Look at that, it didn't take 2+ months. + +Edit 3: Excellent interpretation (I share the same sentiment) of 005 made by u/weeknddev \- [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncnz1l/where\_in\_the\_world\_is\_srdtc2021005\_we\_were\_told/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncnz1l/where_in_the_world_is_srdtc2021005_we_were_told/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Note that rules aren't actually rules unless they are enforced. As I stated above, the context of 005, the additional comments are what matters. The timing of 005 being released, 801/002 being potentially approved on Friday/Monday (this ruling, btw is extremely important), the narrative being set by MSM, the alarms of inflation, RRP being god tier high; the bigger picture is forming right before our eyes. + +Buckle UP! 💎👊🦧🚀🌙 +It's been a pretty dumb year for investments. But our money managed to keep working and getting paid. + +I'm shooting for at least $3.50/hr for 2023. + + Happy holidays and cheers to us all! +-Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren proposes raising $1 trillion in government revenue from a new tax on profits of the largest corporations. + +-The proposed surtax would prevent Amazon and other companies with profits exceeding $100 million from wiping out their tax liabilities altogether. + +-Instead of taxable corporate income as defined by the IRS, the 7% surtax would apply to profits companies report to their investors. + +https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/elizabeth-warren-targets-corporate-profits-with-new-7percent-surtax-proposal.html +https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pg-e-us-wildfire-options/timely-trade-in-pge-corp-options-reaps-millions-idUSKCN1PI34V + + +Casual and totally coincidental lucky trade here +My old econ professor made the claim that one of the reasons (among many others) CEO compensation has skyrocketed compared to worker compensation is due to executive pay essentially being public knowledge, which benefitted CEOs as it reduced information asymmetry and reduced friction, allowing for a more free market system in terms of compensation. + +In the US, there is a massive stigma and even retaliation for revealing salary information (an old company I was with was becoming a JV partner with another company and they said we weren’t allowed to share personal compensation information at the risk of being fired). + +My professor said that if we made worker compensation information public, it would also reduce information asymmetry and allow for pay to become subject to a more free market dynamic, which would transfer power and wealth to the workers and increase compensation. + +He personally thought all compensation should be made public and that would help overall worker compensation to increase relative to today. + +How true is this? +Hi guys, I find that a lot of you might be curious as to how capital gains work. If you already know how it works, no need to be condescending and look down on those who don't. + +Say you are **SINGLE** and bought 30 shares of GME @ $100. Your cost basis here would be $3000. Your hypothetical income each year is $40,000, excluding the capital gain/loss. + +**Scenario 1: You Sell for a Profit** + +It appreciates to $400 a share and you sell all 30 of your shares. + +$400\*30 = $12,000 was the amount you got after you sell. + +To get to the taxable amount, we subtract your basis of $3,000 from the $12,000. + +After doing so, we reach $9,000. + +You've held this stock for less than a year, which makes it a **short term capital gain.** + +For short term capital gains, we simply include this income along with your ordinary income to be taxed at the current rates. For a hypothetical taxable income of 49,000, you would simply need to set aside $1,967.50 of your $9000 gain to get right with Uncle Sam for the current tax year. + + +On the other hand, if you were bullish on GME from the start and bought the stock a year ago and subsequently sold after a year, this would be a long term capital gain. Your $9,000 long term capital gain would have a special tax rate much lower than that of your ordinary income. + +For the purposes of this example, here are the single tax brackets for capital gains income: + + +>0% +> +>$0 to $40,400 +> +>15% +> +>$40,401 to $445,850 +> +>20% +> +>$445,851 or more + +Our total taxable income here (including the capital gains) is 49,000. That makes our tax bracket 15%. + +With a 15% tax rate, you would have to set aside $1,350(9,000\*.15) to get right with Uncle Sam. + +**Scenario 2: You sell for a LOSS** + + +GME's stock price plummets to $0. Since the stock is now worthless, might as well "sell" for 0. + +Your initial investment of $3,000 is now wiped out. Gone. However, Uncle Sam allows you to deduct up to $3,000 each year in Capital Losses against Ordinary Income. + +In this example, our $40,000 of Ordinary Income would be decreased by the amount of the loss we sustained (up to $3,000 each year). + +This leaves you with $37,000 of taxable income after YOLO'ing it on a meme stonk. + +Feel free to ask any questions you might have down in the comments below. +I'm a single man in my late 20s making 140k + super as a software developer. I can safely say I am extremely comfortable and privileged with my status in life. + +I don't need to go the extra mile to save money with a hospital cover. Furthermore I would rather my money go into Medicare and public sector (aka helping real people) than line the pockets of some health insurance executive. + +I explained this to some of my friends and they thought I was insane for thinking like this. Is there anyone else in a similar situation? Or is everyone above the threshold on private healthcare? +This was swaps leaking. They knew it was coming. They set up the data from Ortex. They set up the S3 guy talking about parabolic after $30. They knew this was going to happen and they needed to be able to plausibly say 'hey that extra 20 million in volume and the bump in price must've come from retail piling on". +The reason why I ask this question is because, most long term investors in my family/friends (primarily 55+ yr olds) believe that new age companies should not be trusted with your wealth. Like most "start ups" their failure is imminent and the businesses not thought out for the long term. I know none of this is true for Zerodha (atleast on the face of it and it being a decade old firm). But besides this, please feel free to share your knowledge and experience on this subject. + +Let's say my portfolio is growing rapidly and falls under HNI category. Would zerodha still be a good choice? Or I should look at more seasoned brokers like Kotak/ICICI etc. +Recently, I posted here asking if landlords are bad (or just what purpose they serve in the housing market), and I linked anti-landlord videos from anarchist YouTuber Thought Slime. A quote from their second video has been banging around in my head for days now: + +"most economists are parasites that believe whatever neoliberal bullshit the Chicago school tells them to" + +I don't imagine most people here would agree that economists are "parasites." But I'm interested in the Chicago school's influence on the discipline and whether that aspect of TS's quote has any truth to it. IIRC, the Chicago school was either started or popularized by Milton Friedman, and many of Friedman's policy ideas have been discredited by further research. I'm not sure how important they are today, but it doesn't seem like they have outsized importance in modern economics compared to, say, Keynesianism. + +If anybody can give a general idea of what Chicago school ideas are still relevant or academically accepted today, I would love that. +Wouldn’t it be great if we could find great stocks before they explode? I guess that’s the most common question we ask here that how to invest in a stock before it has already rocketed. Now this is my very first DD actually and I’ve spent considerable amount of time in performing this due diligence, however I might be missing the finesse of some of the elder gods here so kindly excuse me for that. But this is a stock that hasn't made any major movement yet but I believe it has a very high potential to grow exponentially. + +**Bee Vectoring Technology (BVT) (CSE: BEE.CN;** **OTCQB: BEVVF**) is a Canadian venture company and it’s core objective is to provide scalable, sustainable, natural commercial farming solutions. The most amazing stuff I’ve ever heard & read honestly. They use BEES to deliver natural pesticides with the natural process of pollination. How fantastic is that? They are saving the farms & earth at the same time. PRODUCT - As per their official website, BVT’s Vectorhive™ system uses commercially reared bumblebees or honey bees, whichever is the preference to a grower’s practice, to deliver BVT’s patented Vectorite™ with CR-7, a biological fungicide for control of common fungal diseases, including Botrytis Gray Mold. BVT’s patent-pending technology has bees pick up Vectorite, a mixture containing CR-7, from a tray at the hive. Although the product is being expanded to honeybees, it was initially developed with bumblebees in mind.  + +**KEY ACHIEVEMENTS** \-  + +* 1st EPA registered product approved for natural delivery be Bees +* 35% Average improved yield vs. fungicide alone in strawberry crops +* 28% Higher yield on blueberries vs. pollination alone + +**APPLICATIONS** \- How BVT works ([Youtube Video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2UfwhnyWzU)). Works beautifully for crops including - Strawberry, Blueberry, in fact most of the berries, Apples, Tomatoes, Canola et al.  + +**MANAGEMENT** \- Solid management team headed by **Ashish Malik** who was previously the VP of Global Marketing for Biologics at Bayer CropScience. **Michael Collinson** served as the President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of BVT from 2012 to August 2016 and continues as the Chairman of the Board. He was previously an executive at Teknion in business development during an intense period of revenue growth from $40 million to $1 billion, and ultimately through to their becoming a public company. **Christoph Lehnen** is the technical lead for Europe previously worked for the Swiss Federation leading a wheat breeding program (spelt) before joining one of Syngenta’s legacy companies as a product manager. **Gerardo Suazo** is the technical lead for Americas previously worked as Product Technical Lead at Syngenta where he led regional launch activities with the two largest US and Canadian retailers and developed novel technologies for greenhouse growers. Ashish Malik seems like a solid guy with a clear thought process. I really enjoyed [watching his video here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmj0RKfbjPo) discussing their 2020 plan. His answers to some questions are pretty convincing too.  +MAIN WEBSITE - [http://www.beevt.com/](http://www.beevt.com/) +Product website - [https://www.vectoritebvt.com/](https://www.vectoritebvt.com/) +Dedicated section for investors - [http://www.beevt.com/investors/stocktradingresource](http://www.beevt.com/investors/stocktradingresource)  + +**Current stock price -**  +CSE: Ticker BEE.CN CAD 0.45  +OTC Markets: Ticker BEVVF USD 0.355 +Market Cap - 32.6 M + +**Why am I interested in this stock?** I have invested in illogical stocks just cos of their face value and made money out of it. For once, this is a sustainable company that is using BEEs to make the world a better place. I am in for the BEES. However, some additional pointers -  + +1. In 2018 alone, $17 Billion was invested in the AgriFood Tech domain.  +2. $240 BILLION is the total addressable market within crop protection & fertilisers.  +3. $20 Billion is the total market opportunity for BVT to readily leverage.  +4. 3 MILLION Bee Hives rented for pollination annually.  +5. 60+ Patents Granted; 30+ Patents pending  +6. For a 2.5 months of Strawberry season, BVT replaces 4 KGs of PESTICIDES with just 20 grams of Biological BVT. + +**Risks?** I am not sure if AgriFood Tech is as sexy a sector as EV or Weed currently so this stock might not get the right amount of attention it deserves. Plus with no catalysts around, the growth (or the lack thereof) could be a slow burn. PS - Do not get into this stock thinking that it’s going to multiply like crazy as I don’t see ANY catalysts but I genuinely believe in what they’re doing and want them to be successful for the sake of BEES. Do you own study and apply your own logic before investing.  + +Disclaimer - I am in with 3000 stocks on TSX at CAD 0.44 +Welcome to the ETH Daily Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here. Please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or support issues. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. 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Enjoy! + +If you are a by-the-book value investor like me, you've probably seen that you can barely count with one hand the number of stocks that meet Graham's criteria for individual/defensive investors stocks selection. To some extent, his methods are even called outdated by some individuals who overvalue growth and a less asset-heavy valuation approach, which to be fair has worked just fine in the last 20-30 years. However, BABA could be a once in a decade opportunity for many of us. + +Assuming that you are not afraid of the plethora of concerns with Chinese regulation, and that you don't allocate an unsafe percentage of your portfolio to a single stock, please find below the plain and simple analysis of BABA as Graham would recommend. + +As a refresher, this is the criteria we will be evaluating against: + +1. **Adequate Size of Enterprise** +2. **Strong Financial Condition** + 1. Current Ratio greater than 1 (Graham recommends 2 but this is for Industrials) + 2. Long Term Debt less than Working Capital +3. **Earnings Stability:** Some earnings of the common stock in each of the past 10 years. +4. **Dividend Record:** Paid dividends for 20 years or more +5. **Earnings Growth**: 7% average annual increase, or 100% growth in 10 years. Use first and last 3 years average. +6. **Moderate Price to Earnings Ratio:** P/E <15 using last 3 years average EPS +7. **Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets:** P/B ratio < 1.5 or P/E x P/B < 22.5 + +At the time of this writing, these are the relevant financials for Alibaba: + +|Stock Price|$157.96| +|:-|:-| +|**Market Value ($Bi)**|$429.36| +|**Total Assets ($Bi)**|$259.97| +|**Current Assets ($Bi)**|$98.96| +|**Total Liabilities ($Bi)**|$94.63| +|**Current Liabilities ($Bi)**|$58.04| +|**Working Capital ($Bi)**|$40.91| +|**Long Term Debt ($Bi)**|$25.21| +|**Shares Outstanding (Bi)**|2.71| +|**Avg EPS (years 10-7 using Diluted)**|0.79| +|**Avg EPS (years 1-3 using Diluted)**|7.41| +|**Book Value per Share**|$60.96| +|**P/E Ratio (3-year avg EPS)**|21.31| +|**P/B Ratio**|2.59| + +With the figures above let's go through criteria 1 through 7: + +1. **Adequate Size of Enterprise:** obviously yes with a market cap of **\~$430B** +2. **Strong Financial Condition:** Yes. Current Assets/Current Liabilities = **1.70** and Long Term Debt less than Working Capital **$25.21B < $40.91B** +3. **Earnings Stability:** Yes. Positive EPS for the last 10 years. +4. **Dividend Record:** No dividend but it's ok, the company has only been public for 10 years and has not realized full growth according to many analysts. +5. **Earnings Growth**: Yes. **836.46%.** +6. **Moderate Price to Earnings Ratio:** No .P/E of 21.31 but still very attractive. +7. **Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets:** This criteria is not met, however, BABA's P/B ratio Still much lower than industry average of 6.57 for Cyclical, 8.4 of Technology and 4.73 of S&P500. + +I'm really curious to read your opinions. Obviously there is a lot of controversy surrounding this stock with a lot of big players either entering or exiting their positions. In my view this is a no brainer for anyone who can afford to allocate 2.5%-5% of their portfolio in a single stock. + +**EDIT:** Someone realized that my EPS calculation was wrong due to CNYUSD conversion missing in some EPS figures. I updated the table to reflect that, which bumps up the P/E to around **21**. Still not bad considering the sector indexes but definitely it is not a pass for rule 6. EPS growth was also underestimated, updated to **836.46%** +Hello, + +I'm a student of economics pursuing masters but I am really doubtful whether economics is of any use at all in policy making and market analysis. I am having mixed feelings about my career and I am really confused. I wanted to ask a few questions about it that would help me clear my mind. I hope I'm posting this in the right community, if not then I'm really sorry. If people say economics is useless then why do we even have central banks, taxes, economic appraisals and all? If nothing in economics is valid even at a PhD level, then how is the economy running? Are all the research papers drafted in economics just waste to do anything about policy making, industry research or solve economic issues? Should economics not be chosen by anyone who plans to go for a Phd in it and wants to work in the government or as economic analyst for companies? I want to basically work in the work for government, research institutes or large energy or construction corporations. I want a job to do sector and industry analysis and external environment analysis like PEST. I want also work in monetary policy making and financial policy making as well. So, do you think that economics will not obsolete for at least the careers and tasks mentioned above + +I hope someone can answer these questions for me and I'm really sorry if I offended with the questions asked above but I didn't intend to. + +&#x200B; + +Thank you. +4 months ago I received a promotion to manager level with a couple of people reporting to me. I was given a 10% raise and told that I won't be eligible for the end of year remuneration review. I wasn't overly excited by this.considering my experience, skill and new responsibilities. + +Last week I had a chat to my boss and their boss. I respectfully told them I feel underpaid and underappreciated and gave my case as to why I deserve more (without giving a figure). I also told them that there are a lot of opportunities out there for someone with my skill set. + +Long story short I received another 25% on top of the 10% because they couldn't afford to lose me. This is life changing money for me and my family and I'm so glad I put myself out there to have a chat that can often be very uncomfortable. For me a 20 minute conversation has resulted in a huge positive change in my life! + +I think its important for people who feel underpaid and underappreciated to have a chat to their bosses. It might result in something, in my result in nothing but its always worth giving it a try. + +I don't know if this will inspire anyone else to have that chat but I really hope so. I'd love to hear from anyone who will give it a try, including the outcome. Ive got my fingers crossed for you🤞 +I want to preface this post by saying I don’t have a specific question—it’s more of an appreciation post. + +I’m a recent college graduate (first-generation) and I come from a low-income family. To put it in perspective, I’ll be making more than double my parents combined income my first year out of college. My parents stressed going to college, working hard, and being a good person, but I didn’t learn anything about money. As someone who doesn’t come from wealth, this sub has given me a “look behind the curtains” and allowed me to learn soooooooo much, pertaining to both career and financial. There have been so many (probably insignificant to the fat members) posts/comments that have just made me go “Wow, I had no idea.” + +I’m sure I can speak on behalf of others and just say that this community has been beyond helpful to me. Very sincerely, thank you to everyone who just engages on a daily basis! I’ll go back to lurking now... +It feels like 90% of the front page posts I see from this sub are about how someone is making a killing with their quarters they have earned a day or how we should be impressed that a humble 20 year old already has a dividend portfolio going. + +Any way we can limit/ban these posts that are the exact same thing every single day? They add nothing. And when people criticize or give feedback, it’s not unheard of for others to come in yelling “no one asked for feedback, don’t discourage OP!!1”. + +I’m not sure the purpose of those posts if people don’t want anyone to be critical. Is it just karma farming? Is it looking to get a pat on the back? + +Come on, mods. This sub can do better. + +Edit: FWIW at the time of writing, there are no fewer than 5 of these posts on the front page of this sub today. +Obligatory smooth brain disclaimer. + +I have watched from the sidelines all year. Now though, I’m seeing mentions of the RRP in multiple financial subreddits. The president of the NYSE has basically admitted that there is market manipulation happening. And at the end of this month the mortgage relief ends. + +I was up all night and now today reading and reading. Holy fuck. MOASS isn’t just a play around one stock anymore. It’s now EVERYTHING. + +Just became a shareholder. This is bigger than Shitadel. This is the entire economic system. I bought my shares and this is my hedge. Thanks for having me. + +Edit: RIP inbox. + +A lot of people are asking what made me hop on the rocket ship. It was really a smattering and I can’t find them all but here were my big catalysts. + +1. This one I spent so long in. Googling terms. Rereading to understand. I sent this one to my dad today and told him to have at least 30 minutes to dig through. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0scoy/the_bigger_short_how_2008_is_repeating_at_a_much/ + +2. This was just shocking to hear + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o25oi1/nyse_president_admitted_dark_pool_exchanges_are/ + +3. And this was a treasure trove + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyvlws/as_a_new_returning_ape_i_always_saw_read_the_dd/ +Modern accounting allows for a small trick that many companies take advantage of. As an investor, you should be wary of it. + +The trick is to cleverly conceal stock-based compensation (SBC) within share repurchases. + +Some investors look at the statement of cash flows and calculate Free Cash Flow (FCF) by taking the Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) and subtracting CapEx. Unfortunately, SBC is treated as a non-cash expense and added back to Net Income in computing CFO, which means that the FCF number calculated is likely inflated. + +More astute investors realize that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. So, they treat SBC as a cash expense and ignore the line item that adds it back to Net Income in the statement of cash flows. While they are closer to the truth, they too are likely underestimating the impact of SBC. + +Let me explain with the example of Apple. Here’s their [latest 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019321000105/aapl-20210925.htm). + +If you look at their statement of cash flows, they have a SBC expense of [$7,906 million](https://imgur.com/a/Dtcf2ff) in the operating section. + +So far so good. Now let’s take a look at the [financing section](https://imgur.com/a/ZR4IN6G) (all numbers are in millions): + +* Proceeds from issuance of common stock = $1,105 +* Payments for taxes related to net share settlement of equity awards = ($6,556) \* +* Repurchases of common stock = ($85,971) +* Net cash flow related to common stock transactions = ($91,422) + +*\* negative sign represents cash outflow* + + You can see the shares outstanding in the [balance sheet](https://imgur.com/a/uzvFqwb) (all numbers are in thousands): + +* Shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2021 = 16,426,786 +* Shares outstanding at the end of fiscal 2020 = 16,976,763 +* Net change in shares = 549,977 + +So Apple used $91.4 billion to repurchase 550 million shares. This works out to $166 per share. But AAPL shares never traded as high as $166 in fiscal 2021 (Oct-2020 to Sep-2021). Something’s fishy here. + +Let’s look at the notes to the financial statements. Specifically [Note 8](https://imgur.com/a/Q6qxSri). There you go. The company repurchased not 550 but 656 million shares. But it also issued 106 million shares to employees. + +So, of the $91 billion cash used in common stock transactions, only $76.6 billion (550/656 * 91) was truly used for repurchase. The other $14.8 billion was actually used for SBC (distributed as shares instead of dollars). + +This means that the actual SBC of $14.8 billion is nearly double the reported figure of $7.9 billion! + +Where does this $6.9 billion differential show up? Not on the balance sheet, the income statement, or the statement of cash flows. It shows up in the lower share count, or a lack of it. There’s your sleight of hand. + +Here’s a [summarized view](https://imgur.com/a/Y8wL5le) of this gimmick. This isn't to pick on Apple. A lot of companies do this and it may be a natural consequence of the compensation policies. The lesson for us investors is that we should be skeptical of the reported SBC and repurchase numbers and adjust our cash flow expectations accordingly. Cheers! +I am looking to load up on some stocks I think will be included before ARKX comes out, thoughts? + + +Additionally, how are you guys going to get in? Right away? Wait and see? Like I said, I have never bought an ETF right away, but I don't see any reason I can't buy right away unless I am missing something. The price is tied to the underlining assets so it can't really get overhyped then tank like normal IPOs have lately right? + + +I am thinking of buying some RTX, NOC, LMT, LUNA, MAXR, and SPCE beforehand, thoughts? +1. Corona cases are increasing. + +2. There is unemployment everywhere. + +3. There are salary cuts. + +4. Almost all major shops are closed. + +5. Locust are destroying food crops. + +But still markets have increased 26% since lockdown +So according to [this study](https://www.natcom.org/sites/default/files/publications/NCA_C-Brief_2017_March.pdf) for every 1 republican economist, there are 4.5 democrat economists. That is obviously a much bigger ratio of democrats to republicans relative to the general population. But what’s interesting is the ratio of democrats to republicans is 11.5 on average for tenured academic faculty, ranging from 8.6 for law, 17.6 for psychology, 20 for communications/journalism, and 33.5 for history. + +I’m wondering, is there a reason for why 1) economists are way more likely to vote democrat relative to the general population, but 2) way more likely to vote republican relative to other social scientists and academics? + +And, more importantly, does it have anything to do with the economic policies of democrats and republicans? +I have been trading very successfully for 10 years in global stocks with funds in the USD 10-50 million range and a few large investors are interested in investing with me. + +I would therefore like to set up a new investment fund that they can invest in. + +What are the best options for a 'turnkey' solution. I.e. where the legal work and trading platform is provided by a large credible institution, and I can just focus on making the investments and managing the personal relation with the investors. +In terms of tax-funded benefits they receive and tax money they pay and other economic effects, how does immigration both legal and illegal look overall through pure cost/benefit analyses? +I applied to a job that offered $85,000-$100,000 as the starting salary based on experience and education. In terms of experience, I have 18 years in the industry, 10 years experience in a similar role and 1 year experience in that specific role. In terms of education, I have a MBA and a couple other bachelor degrees. In terms of certificates or skills, I can speak two other languages other than English, in which they do business with and I also have a couple certificates that are related to the industry. + +I have had 4 interviews with them and then was offered a job. At the third interview salary was mentioned and I was asked if I knew what the starting salary was. I replied that the listed pay for the job ranged from $85,000-$100,000. At that interview they explained the range and that education and experience determined pay as its set in tiers, $85,000 as one pay tier, $92,000 another pay tier and $100,000 another so on past the starting range until top pay. + +After the fourth interview I was offered the job, but for $82,000. I emailed the HR representative and explained that was lower than the starting pay range that was discussed earlier and I asked for the $92,000 tier since I had experience and education. + +They called me to discuss it saying they recalibrated the pay structure and the pay now starts much lower than $85,000. The new base pay is $74,000 and that $82,000 is the new second tier which was given to me based on the experience and education. + +I have a friend who works for the company and he gave me advice to reach out to a specific person not in HR and let them know I am interested in the job but can’t take it at the new pay scale. + +The new pay scale means they will compensate me less than my would be peers to do the exact same job. I also know some would be peers that have far less experience and education who received an offer of $85,000. + +I know it would be unorthodox to reach out to someone other than the hiring managers, and I am really interested in working there, but I also do not want to be that under valued. Should I reach out to the specific executive my friend mentioned and discuss it with them? + +Tl;dr: employer listed one salary range, even discussed that range with me briefly at the third interview then offered something far below. + +Update: I did not take the job. Thanks everyone for your feedback. +I don't know if I can ever trust any advice I see in here because I can never be sure if it's just someone trying to get rich at our expense. What do you all think? +Besides getting better at analyzing shit and math, did you actually learn anything that was useful to the career you wound up having? + + + We don't learn about investing , stock trading, or any practical shit, it's just bullshit diagrams and math. (maybe my program sucks?) + +regardless, what are your thoughts? +This is driving me crazy just from confusion. In like 90% of books and sources I read, experts say rent control creates scarcity, it does the opposite of its desired effect essentially. I’ve seen that when rent control was put into place in various cities it immediately lead to less housing development. I’ve seen that it causes landlords to not care about upkeep, it causes abandoned buildings occasionally cause they weren’t profitable, and I read it can lead to construction of more luxury buildings where rent control doesn’t apply. In that last case it seems like this system that tries to help the poor in fact helps the rich. Yet I still see politicians advocating for it and it still exists in places around the world. What the hell am I missing? People don’t seem that upset over this and I don’t get it lol. +The mod of another massive subreddit just did an interview with Fox news, and the level of cringe is beyond comprehention. The sub in question is another sub trying to shake the status quo, though in a very different way than us. Wich means MSM and the current establishment is of course antagonostic against it, just like they are towards is sub. + +And their mod just played right into MSMs hands, and looked like an absolute tool on national TV. + +Go watch the interview, and you will understand what I am talking about. I know our mods recieved a lot of offers to do media apearences, and I just want to use this as an example as to why that would be a terrible idea. + +Never do media. The only way to win is to not play their game. + +Edit: the sub in question is antiwork. The mod in question apparently did the appearance even after a sub poll (much like the one we did here) told em not to, and seemingly acted against the wishes of the bulk of the subreddit. If I didnt know any better I would say the whole thing smells *shilly*. + +Is this something we can see the MSM do to our sub as well? Compromise 1 single individual, that does not represent the users of the subreddit, to make us all look bad? You fucking bet they will at least try. + + +Edit 2: antiwork seems to be in full meltdown. Let this be a lesson. A single rogue individual can set us back by a lot. I wouldnt even put it past MSM to pull out a fake "mod" for this sub and make them seem just as cringe or worse, to discredit us. +It’s a dark day, and what better way to release something that so clearly reveals and neglects the corruption in the financial industry than on a day that no one outside of the know will be talking about it. There are much bigger headlines for the average person to be occupied with. + +This post isn’t to get political. I’m seething. Their actions are so transparent and self interested (protect the rich) and unlike Mark Baum, I have absolutely no respect for them. + +It’s up to us, Apes. Keep up the pressure. Buy, Hodl, shop. Keep DRS’ing your shares. The game has to stop. The future desperately needs us. + +Edit: Many are asking what the report says. Check out this comment by u/NotYourFathersKhakis on another post https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vjo1ii/comment/idjylke/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 + +Also, many are asking what the bigger news story is. It is the overturning of Roe vs. Wade - states now have the right to pass their own abortion laws. + +Edit 2: Someone in the comments mentioned that it felt insensitive to be talking about the stock market with the events going on. That thought had crossed my mind as well, but this isn’t a this or that scenario. It’s a this, and also this situation. But in my opinion (and probably many of yours as well, judging from the comments) that is also a motive as to why the report was released today. Don’t fall for the divide and conquer. +From the [summary news article](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/millennials-earn-20-percent-less-than-boomersdespite-being-better-educated.html): + +> Overall, millennials earn 20% less than baby boomers did at the same stage of life, according to “[The Emerging Millennial Wealth Gap](https://www.newamerica.org/millennials/reports/emerging-millennial-wealth-gap/),” a recent report from the nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank New America. Specifically, median earnings for those 18 to 34 are lower than they were in the 1980s, a disparity that was first noted in a 2017 report from the non-profit Young Invincibles. +> +> ... That’s in spite of overall higher education levels. Nearly 40% of millennials 25 to 37 have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to just a quarter of baby boomers and 30% of Gen X when they were the same age, ... +Many times people often assume EthTrader has one age of people or another using our sub. + +&#x200B; + +This poll is for finding out that very answer from the most active people in the sub. + +&#x200B; + +This is also a great poll where weight doesn't matter so make sure after you vote to toggle from weighted (default view) to non-weighted view. + +&#x200B; + +This poll will run for 2 days. + +I think some are confuse that we actually have 2 results: Weighted based on time/karma in the sub and raw votes. Watch this. + +Edit: **TOGGLE results tutorial video below...sorry for noise! Noise warning.** + +[https://youtu.be/08s0VGuF7Qg](https://youtu.be/08s0VGuF7Qg) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 2: Almost ~~1000, 1100, 1200,~~ ~~1600, 1800,~~ ~~1900~~ 2800 votes! Nice! + +&#x200B; + +Edit 3: First poll option should say 18 and Under (or 18-25)! Thank you u/ + +\[–\][**UndeadWolf222**](https://www.reddit.com/user/UndeadWolf222) **f**or catching that error + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/9l076r) +This is why we absolutely made the right call telling MSM to fuck off. And the mods LISTENED! The antiwork crowd voted no too but the difference is the mods disregarded it for a chance to feed their egos and have a moment in the spotlight. They became exactly what they claim to be fighting against. And look what fuckin happened.... + +That could have been us.... + +That could have been us. Had we not had the right people in charge. + +Thank you mods. We appreciate you +I'd really like to have a discussion here about GME. Everytime it seems I see anyone suggest it as a viable investment, it gets downvoted to oblivion. I hear some of the same arguments against its volatility but exposure to volatility is ok in a balanced portfolio, you dont need to be strictly ETF's. Know your limit, play within it, when it comes to speculative investments. + +Another argument is that its a dead business, that is far from the fact imo. It was on a downward path and would have gone the way of blockbuster but at this point, I see it as more of a Netflix. It is a debt free company, great new management team, proven to care about investors and care about the quality of service that customers receive. + +The fact it's been labelled a "meme" stock is insulting at this point, it's not a "meme" company with a bunch of "meme" employees. It's a company transitioning from its antiquated business model into a hopefully ecommerce powerhouse with at this point a global brand. The craze around this stock has made GME more of a household name then it has ever been. + +I'd love to have a good constructive discussion about it and see what exactly it is that makes some people so bearish on this and maybe we can take it a little more seriously then the label it's been given by CNBC and other MSM. +Dear SEC Intern, + +Sorry not sorry you worked all weekend scouring memes and getting the tendieman song stuck in your head. + +False media reports about “Reddit traders” moving en-mass into silver, SPACs, or whatever is benefiting hedge funds at the moment is getting out of control. + +It doesn’t take more than 2 seconds and a smooth brain to pull up front page of WSB to see that nobody is talking about that shit (except for the bots). + +This is a clear case of market manipulation to lure outside investors into a “momentum opportunity” by fraudulently invoking the “reddit army” for whatever is convenient. This shit is getting out of control. + +Pls format the above into another SEC complaint for me, kthxbai + +💎🤚🚀🚀🚀 +I have no background in macroeconomics. In fact, I'm in healthcare. However, this is what I've gathered in all of my 3 months of investing, learning more about econ and finance than my own field. You tell me what you think and where we stand. The title of my post... pretty much sums up my thoughts. If I made any mistakes, please let me know. After all, I'm a smooth 🧠. + +# 1. S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield 🔥 + +You may have seen this picture from this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/niem73/sp_500_inflationadjusted_earnings_yield_falls/). It's the **S&P 500 inflation-adjusted earnings yield that's now falling below zero, setting a 40-year low**. The last times it fell below 0 were in 2008 (housing bubble), 2000 (dotcom bubble), 1987 (Black Monday), 1973 (recession). And it's going under again. Here's [another post about it, with Crescat Capital's letter.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nil0ww/sp_500_negative_yield_crescat_capital_letter_may/) Essentially, impending boom ? + +https://preview.redd.it/jgvo3ctrpb171.png?width=721&format=png&auto=webp&s=6417c2f97f4dbbdfb4c114fff9abfa1b0fe034f8 + +# 2. The Repo Market 💣 + +It's been all the talk lately. Lately, the Fed has been conducting reverse repo operations at higher and **higher** amounts. On May 20th, we hit the 5th highest ever with $351B and 48 participating counterparties. + +Then on **May 21st, reverse repos reached $369B with 52 participants!** Compare this to two weeks ago where we had less than half that amount, $155B on May 6th. Here's a chart showing reverse repos from January til today. Notice the exponential increase ? Ya, shit is fucked. + +https://preview.redd.it/cf707nbxpb171.png?width=793&format=png&auto=webp&s=a804fd59f761970edd40cf1a76b2ca4e8fb5ac65 + +Data from: [https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp](https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/temp) + +Edit: 05/25: reverse repo @ $432.96 billion. + +If you are not familiar with the repo market, I recommend reading this: [The Imminent Liquidity Crisis & Reverse Repos Usage](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhepn1/the_imminent_liquidity_crisis_reverse_repos_usage/) or watching George Gammon's YouTube video (Repo Market Rates Turn Negative). + +Wat mean? Means there is too much cash in the system and not enough collateral (like treasury bonds). It means there's an imbalance between dollars (which are essentially IOUs) and whatever is backing the dollar's worth. + +Why imbalance ? + +* Quantitative easing (money printer go BRRRR) +* Rehypothecation (the same treasury bond being lent to A for 10k, who lent it to B for 10k, who lent it to C for 10k, ... but there is only 1 treasury bond and now 30k was lent.) +* Probably more reasons + +So now, nobody wants $ (except you and I) and all of these institutions want treasury bonds. And as of May 21, **treasury bonds have a negative interest rate!** Source: [https://www.dtcc.com/charts/dtcc-gcf-repo-index](https://www.dtcc.com/charts/dtcc-gcf-repo-index) + +[U. S. Treasury \< 30-year maturity \(371487AE9\).](https://preview.redd.it/fbzehm75rb171.png?width=474&format=png&auto=webp&s=860034b8555e891462abedd4753be32043dfece4) + +In other words, banks and institutions want these treasury bonds so bad, they're ready to pay (lend) what it's worth and pay some more cash to get their hands on it. + +&#x200B; + +# 3. Crypto Correction / Crash ⚡ + +The crypto market dropped $1 trillion in the past 2 weeks ($700 billion last week and \~$300 billion the week before if I got my facts right). The leading coin went from \~$59k to \~$30k and all other coins followed. + +So there's a LOT of differing opinions on this matter, on why it happened... Elon Musk, China, etc. Let's agree that it was probably a combination of everything. It also seems that the leading coin followed a textbook Wyckoff distribution, essentially a method to fleece retail investors (yet again!). + +[Huge volume spike on May 19th. Very sus](https://preview.redd.it/hynaaywmrb171.png?width=1759&format=png&auto=webp&s=d70c230eed55df463d46d74b763ae978fe064896) + +[The sell off occurred mostly between 8:50 - 8:55 AM EST and continued til 9:10 AM on May 19th.](https://preview.redd.it/kmksmruzrb171.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ce95a840845a0178cd303acf4acef3b938192bc) + +What happened on May 19th ? Oh, right! OCC had previously issued a letter to members notifying them of temporary increase in deposits for clearing fund size totaling [$588M due at 9:00 AM on 5/19/2021](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nftyg4/occ_has_issued_a_statement_to_all_clearing/). So, let's all agree the crash was caused by a combination of **everything.** + +[Many coins were affected 6 days ago. Screenshot by u\/incandescent-leaf ](https://preview.redd.it/n8lb7266sb171.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=d2400092f719b7759f880782309592d56db1f66f) + +&#x200B; + +Edit: + +* Here's an interesting DD that could shed some light on these crypto whales: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkde38/bitcoin\_address\_activity\_appear\_to\_mirror\_gme/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkde38/bitcoin_address_activity_appear_to_mirror_gme/) +* It's also interesting how Goldman Sachs now considers the leading coin as an asset class. The timing is what's most intriguing. Last weekend, crypto had another big sell off. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-is-officially-a-new-asset-class-goldman-sachs-103540636.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-is-officially-a-new-asset-class-goldman-sachs-103540636.html) + +# 4. Commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) 🏬 + +According to Fitch Ratings, US CMBS delinquencies ticked up in April for the first time since October 2020, mostly from hotels and regional malls. + +https://preview.redd.it/9uq512i9sb171.png?width=991&format=png&auto=webp&s=eda234c027d79eb6d1318e5036dde2b2aa7f1538 + +Source: [https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-cmbs-delinquencies-tick-up-in-april-for-first-time-since-october-2020-07-05-2021](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-cmbs-delinquencies-tick-up-in-april-for-first-time-since-october-2020-07-05-2021) + +I don't know about you, but this suuure reminds me of something... and this don't look good. + +🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀 + +*Thank you to* u/Due-Mountain-9044 *for this:* + +In his interview and in his new article, Ryan Grim calls CMBS a BIGGER problem than the 2008 housing crisis: + +* Article: [https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/](https://theintercept.com/2021/04/20/wall-street-cmbs-dollar-general-ladder-capital/) +* YouTube: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHwhvUc54A](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRHwhvUc54A) +* Podcast: [https://theintercept.com/2021/04/23/deconstructed-whistleblower-financial-crisis/](https://theintercept.com/2021/04/23/deconstructed-whistleblower-financial-crisis/) + +# 4.1 Mortgages 🏠 + +*Thank you to* u/plasticbiner *for also pointing this out:* + +New Report From Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Finds Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing (March 1, 2021) + +[Source: https:\/\/www.consumerfinance.gov\/about-us\/newsroom\/new-report-from-consumer-financial-protection-bureau-finds-over-11-million-families-at-risk-of-losing-housing\/](https://preview.redd.it/jvx7x1an3b171.png?width=1015&format=png&auto=webp&s=1574c782f2610c6712f6605be9bc02cade2d0bd9) + +🚀🚀End of edit 🚀🚀 + +# 5. Banks, hedge funds, and the Fed working 24/7 🏦 + +We've seen the night pics and enjoyed them. Quite the norm nowadays, but quite unusual still. + +[https://preview.redd.it/tw0ubnrays071.png?width=1902&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7fae2895a00a4292eb6c22b3cf92fbbb9d6cccb](https://preview.redd.it/tw0ubnrays071.png?width=1902&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7fae2895a00a4292eb6c22b3cf92fbbb9d6cccb) + +But wait! There's more. Not only do they have to deal with the stock market, the repo market, CMBS, paying their employees for overtime... they're also losing money with fines. + +* UBS, Nomura fined $452 million by the EU. Bank of America, Credit Suisse Group AG and Credit Agricole were fined about 28.5 million euros last month. Source: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-nomura-unicredit-fined-452-100701721.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-nomura-unicredit-fined-452-100701721.html) +* Since January 2021 up until today, the SEC has awarded \~$163.2 million to whistleblowers. Whistleblowers get 10-30% of the money collected, which means someone is bleeding from $544 million to $1.632B. +* And then the petty fines by the SEC that I won't list. Chump change for them. + +There's also weird or bad news every week : + +* The European Bank Issues Financial Stability Warning. [Reddit post on this](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nh913m/the_european_bank_issues_financial_stability/) +* In Mexico, [BBVA closes 867 branches and 1 million credit cards.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nhgrt5/closing_867_bank_branches_and_a_million_credit/) In Spain, they closed 530 branches. +* Banks are planning on launching a pilot program where they will issue credit cards to people with no credit scores: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-others-plan-to-issue-credit-cards-to-people-with-no-credit-scores-11620898206](https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-others-plan-to-issue-credit-cards-to-people-with-no-credit-scores-11620898206) +* Not to mention the margin calls already happening on [Wall Street as reported by European financial news](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nb9pon/european_financial_news_is_reporting_major_margin/) +* Much more... won't dig further. It's 1:30 am lol + +🚀🚀 Edit 🚀🚀 ^(I'm back at it 3 days later) + +Here are a few more articles to make you go "Hmmmm 🤔" + +* Right after supposedly great earnings, Morgan Stanley sells $6 billion worth of bonds, following JP Morgan which sold $13 billion of bonds. Goldman Sachs also issued $6 billion of bonds. Source: [https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stanley-joins-bank-bond-bonanza-with-three-part-sale-1.1592121](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/morgan-stanley-joins-bank-bond-bonanza-with-three-part-sale-1.1592121) +* Over-leveraged Archegos Capital Management cost Credit Suisse $4.7+ billion in losses. Morgan Stanley dumped $5 billion in shares in Archegos' stocks before fire sale. Nomura losses could be as much as $2 billion. Source: [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/morgan-stanley-dumped-5-billion-in-archegos-stocks-before-fire-sale.html) and [https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/investing/wall-street-hedge-fund-archegos/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/investing/wall-street-hedge-fund-archegos/index.html). Keep in mind Archegos was just a small family firm. How many more are there ? +* Italian bank collapses on exposure to Greensill and GFG. Source : [https://www.ft.com/content/c02a6e97-5505-4d4a-933f-a0e934ca6eda](https://www.ft.com/content/c02a6e97-5505-4d4a-933f-a0e934ca6eda) + +🚀🚀 End of edit 🚀🚀 + +On top of that, the CEOs of all major US banks have to testify before Congress this week on May 26th and 27th. Source : [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/wall-street-bank-ceos-called-to-testify-before-congress-in-may](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-15/wall-street-bank-ceos-called-to-testify-before-congress-in-may) + +How often does this happen ? Since 2008, they were called twice to testify before Congress according to above article. + +# 6. The rich divorcing and/or selling stocks 💔 + +So Bill Gates divorced and Gabe Plotkin divorced ? Huh. Weird... + +[Wow. That's a lotta shares. A week before the tech sector dumped.](https://preview.redd.it/npk8r7sisb171.png?width=1843&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d0027e7f8aff470b5261852c4c9d77eca4e3380) + +[Mark Zuckerberg selling his FB shares. Goes all the way back to February.](https://preview.redd.it/zaru329qsb171.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=e454d39dc0c95a2b9774b013d988be25ff038d3f) + +[Google too?](https://preview.redd.it/f2ouo5l4tb171.png?width=1852&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab00893677a8db4726d740bef4520169e1e5896e) + +Source: [finviz.com](https://finviz.com) + +Edit: + +* Let's not forget Warren Buffett and his company Berkshire Hathaway sold most of their bank shares (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, M&T Bank, PNC Financial, Synchrony Financial, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, and BNY Mellon) during the past 5 quarters. Source : [https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-dumped-goldman-sachs-jpmorgan-and-other-bank-stocks-last-year-they-ve-now-surged-to-record-highs-meaning-the-investor-left-billions-on-the-table/ar-AAKc7Dr](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warren-buffett-dumped-goldman-sachs-jpmorgan-and-other-bank-stocks-last-year-they-ve-now-surged-to-record-highs-meaning-the-investor-left-billions-on-the-table/ar-AAKc7Dr) + +# 7. The domestic market and the international markets 📉 + +Let's look back at the past 2 weeks. + +[05\/19 by u\/CryptoFX1](https://preview.redd.it/duhmxe5itb171.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=9c6bfde6a2be1b567cdb1452511b99cc9bfc9872) + +[On May 12, Nikkei Bled. Only 1&#37; Away From the Low of Jan 28. by u\/incandescent-leaf ](https://preview.redd.it/geupg0nmtb171.png?width=1136&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f07d1be7f95801e2515e780313342ce1d5e2d6f) + +[\\"Taiwan Stock Exchange Index just wiped out YTD gains. This is abnormal. Very likely that it will also affect the US markets \(though many can argue that this is actually a reflection of the US markets, and I would agree\)\\" by u\/\_atworkdontsendnudes](https://preview.redd.it/yylsva8stb171.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d60431874a4b4df632980e526b9af812ada31d7f) + +* [Asian markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nahhak/asian_markets_are_tanking_once_again_following/) and [other international markets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nafv9y/international_markets_are_doing_super_well_honest/) are tanking, following another day of decline in the US markets (May 12-13) + +Ok, the market has had its green days here and there. But overall, it's been pretty unusually red, right ? Yeah, also, all of this could be unrelated. Could be a coincidence. What do I know ? You be the judge. + +# 8. The media 📰 + +Usually very biased or bought out, but there are some exceptions like this article: [Are we on the verge of a new financial crisis?](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ncgojw/are_we_on_the_verge_of_a_new_financial_crisis_the/) The GameStop case, the signals of Hedge Funds and the rise of crypto. + +What's concerning is that even "biased media" is warning of inflation, hyperinflation and an impending crash. No links, just go on YouTube. If they're talking about it, we know shit's about to hit the fan soon... + +Edit: + +* Ever doubted media manipulation ? Remember this video ["Independent" media using the EXACT same words](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbpusp/if_you_ever_doubted_media_manipulation_remember/) and this video of the 2008 crash: [Not a single expert/spokesperson mentioned the true cause of the crash; Mortgage Bonds.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nbrl8h/watch_this_video_of_cnbc_during_the_2008_crash/) +* Remember "Bear Stearns is fine" back in 2008 ? Cramer says he's confident inflation will not end up crushing US economy. Source : [https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cramer-says-hes-confident-inflation-will-not-end-up-crushing-us-economy/ar-AAKl951](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/cramer-says-hes-confident-inflation-will-not-end-up-crushing-us-economy/ar-AAKl951) +* Motley Fool agrees, as per their "38 reasons you don't have to fear a stock market crash" article: [https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/38-reason-you-dont-have-to-fear-stock-market-crash/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/23/38-reason-you-dont-have-to-fear-stock-market-crash/) + +# 9. GameStop 🎮 + +I think you know what I'm thinking of. Let me just repeat this. We have played the game while following the rules. We played against players that had cheat codes in an unfair game, designed for us to lose. Yet, here we are. + +Buy, hodl, and vote fellow 🐈 & 🦍& 🐜. I appreciate you all. The rest can fuck right off. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + + Edit: alright, who the f reported me ? Seems like the shills don't like this. To everyone else, I am perfectly happy with my life 😉🤑 + + Edit 2: I guess I was too subtle. I was reported for self-harm and potential suicide. Let me make it clear, I have absolutely zero thoughts about this. I love my life, even if it's a mess. + + Also, thank you all for the awards and kind feedback! Was not expecting to gain so much traction. "Controversial" title is a reference to the movie The Big Short. Some of you (superstonkers) caught on. + + Lots of great input and good discussion in the comments. + + A few people questioning my sources and my background. Listen... forget it. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +# 10. The flurry of new rules and regulations 📝 + +* Let's not forget Gary Gensler, Chairman of the SEC, was sworn in on a Saturday (April 17, 2021). [Why the Weekend Swear in Ceremony for Gary Gensler is of Significance](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtikm9/why_the_weekend_swear_in_ceremony_for_gary/) +* Also interesting how the DTCC, OCC, ICC, and NSCC have been implementing new rules and regulations like crazy in such a short time-span. Below is an overview of them (credits to u/MATTATI2005). And here's [another great DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/) tying them in with the FTD cycles of GME. + +https://preview.redd.it/hdabo7p6vc171.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d089ca7c3e1d9cf27bfdb9ed0762f9b036c4b643 + +* Michael J. Burry, famous for seeing the early signs of the 2008 crash and making bank, also got shushed a few months ago, deleting his Twitter account. In his profile, he linked this, only to remove it 1 day later: [https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ins-and-outs-of-collateral-re-use-20181221.htm](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ins-and-outs-of-collateral-re-use-20181221.htm). Here's a great DD explaining how Michael Burry Handed us the Missing Piece on a Silver Plate, [How Financial Institutions Using US Treasury Securities Nearly Caused the Market to Collapse and What Does it Mean for Us](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mil875/michael_burry_handed_us_the_missing_piece_on_a/) + +# 11. Margin debt 💵 + +FINRA Margin Debt is at a current level of 822.55B, up from 813.68B last month and up from 479.29B one year ago. This is a change of 1.09% from last month and 71.62% from one year ago. Source: [https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra\_margin\_debt](https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt). Thank you to u/CapoeiraCharles who reminded me of this. + +https://preview.redd.it/szaksdemvb171.png?width=1154&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8b26435ab2e534370f322600c2a7ffa1098ce13 + +https://preview.redd.it/9ot4jz0nqb171.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fe3c5cad336c78e6aa3846438430e3f4d94a8ff + +# 12. More charts 📉 + +I'm just going to leave this here. You be the judge of what this all means. Credits to u/peruvian_bull. + +https://preview.redd.it/b5k88sr7pb171.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=76a3b153b728898635c81fa78de60d775554210b + +# 13. Final words 💎 + +My goal is **not** to incite panic but to share data and encourage discussion. Without knowledge, where would we even begin, let alone be prepared ? Imo, this is what makes r/superstonk great. It's like a hive mind of 300k+ people sharing info. + +To those who are panicking, I believe US banks insure up to $250k for each account. The comment section below is quite informative as well. + +Are all the points in my post correlated ? Maybe, maybe not. Saying they are would be speculation. However, each point was based on facts and I think that's what matters. The rest is up for you to decide. + +This is not financial advice. If I missed anything, please let me know. + +🚀🚀🚀 +Probably a very stupid question and even more philosophical than economic, but are there theories or even proof that Supply and Demand is a law that applies to nature as well? +There seems to be two schools of thought when it comes to economics, + +And on Twitter I mostly follow right-wing, conservative, pro-bitcoin influencers that say we will soon enter hyperinflation as the government is printing too much money. + +The US government doesn't seem to think so... + +Can someone explain to me HOW printing that much money won't cause super high inflation? +I've been investing since April/May of 2020, saw my portfolio 40% up at a given moment. + +Now I'm sitting in at around 15% loss of my total net deposits, did the math and I would be so much better if I just bought VOO since day one and I wouldn't have spent a single minute trying to understand companies and the market, just DCA month in month out. + +I am considering pivoting to this now, but I feel it would be utterly stupid to just sell everything and buy the market now as I would be selling things with a huge loss (down 45% on META for example), on the other hand it would save my mental health as I can't stand thinking about it every day any longer. + +Writing here just to vent and hear some stories, I bet a lot of people feel the same way, what have you done? How do you feel? + +My net worth was $108k in December, now 9 months later it is the same $108k after depositing an additional $38k. + +Basically 100% of my loss is on a single stock (META), by itself it wiped out all the gains I did in 2020 and 2021, it just screams to me how I don't know how to properly diversify, weigth and I am feeling really stressed about trying to figure it out. + +I am decided that from now on I will focus on ETFs, what Im not sure though is what to do with the existing portfolio, like I said it just feels dumb to realize these huge losses and buy the market ETFs which are still quite overvalued. + +EDIT: This is how my portfolio currently looks [https://imgur.com/a/yVmGkwP](https://imgur.com/a/yVmGkwP) +Doge Belfort is now known for Bringing in 2.2M followers TikToker into his project for in less than 12 hours. He also has a huge youtube campaign and many more exciting sponsorships!. Doge has also united the crypto community in a way no one has ever seen. Now he's taking a walk down Wall Street, let's see what he can accomplish here. + +TheDogeOfWallStreet just fair launched a couple hours ago, crazy high potential with a current market cap of 1M. Join the best combination of meme and tokenomics primed for a perfect moon and long term hodl. + +With 7% of all transactions added to liquidity & 5% returned to holders wallets, & 1% max wallet hold, this has all of the tokenomics of a top project. It all comes down to how much the devs are invested, which they are based on how active they are in Telegram & the marketing plans they have set out. + +It's still extremely early, fair launching only a few hours ago, and I think they were getting all of their marketing in order before trying to make this thing blow up. The website is pretty chill too. As always DYOR & stay safe! + +Join the community today and check out the website at the links below. Also make sure to check out the safu links! + +💰 Ticker: $TDWS + +Website: https://www.dogeofwallstreet.co/ + +📩 Telegram: https://t.me/thedogeofwallst + +🔥 Liquidity burnt: https://bscscan.com/tx/0x7949c233abf4c772f2cbb8c785feef936c342cbc5c4b4c9c51f82a30834e3888 + +🔒 Ownership renounced: https://bscscan.com/tx/0x858a917059aa12b346f170f7f487ec73579ddc49d02b0a8a732b26587591fa4a + +📔 Contract: https://bscscan.com/address/0xac9f0ca68c31870a3c07d3f8e0da08e1d993a15f#code +I messed up with 50k in options over two accounts and then 30k in forex. I have a stable job, so I’m not at rock bottom, but I’m cleaned out. Any advice on how to start fresh with this shitty history and mindset I have? + +Update: amazing responses and pieces of advice, I will whole heartedly take some of what’s here to heart. Thank you! +I just put an offer in that was accepted today with the only contingencies being an inspection and the loan. Same day, my wife, whose happiness is worth much more than any investment, has buyer's remorse. It would be our first vacation home. It isn't very nice but on a lake. It is not a guaranteed money maker but low cost. Her buyer's remorse is probably a really good indicator that this will not go well. There are two other options on the lake that we haven't seen yet. + +The question: how do I get out of this purchase agreement without needing to fulfill the $1,000 earnest deposit? Do I just say I changed my mind and won't send the money? + +Edit: fixed typo + +Update: It seems, in this case, the right answer was to allow a cool off period. Her cold feet, as was mentioned in one of the comments, went away. She even convinced me this is a better deal than I think. Thank you all for all the comments and thoughtful advice. + +Update 2: The seller backed out! +TG : https://t.me/santaelon_bsc + +Contract adress : 0x7b50c95f065dc48a0ecf8e5f992bf9bb9f4299c5 + +🌟 5/5 star crypto : + +- Santa Elon is the crypto that MOONED the most following the latest elon santa claus tweet (+80% growth organic). + +- Santa Elon is the only santa crypto that has still MASSIVE unspent maketing budget and that will spend it in the last few days + +- Santa Elon has based developpers AND a continuation plan after december 25th so that we moon all year long. + +- Santa Elon still has huge room for growth and has now applied for CMC. + +TG : https://t.me/santaelon_bsc + +🎅🏻 Elon Musk themed crypto + +Santa Elon offers the employees of Tesla, Space X, Neuralink and The Boring Company a special gift to reward them for being part of the amazing companies that are revolutionizing the industries of today and for years to come. + +TG : https://t.me/santaelon_bsc + +Contract adress : 0x7b50c95f065dc48a0ecf8e5f992bf9bb9f4299c5 + +🎅🏻 What is Santa Elon, the Christmas Cryptocurrency? + +Santa Elon is a cryptocurrency that provides token holders with BNB rewards on Chritsmas Day. On top of it Santa Elon is developing a play to earn game known as where players can earn real digital currency. And finally Santa Elon has an NFT collection that members can trade with anyone in the NFT community! + +Santa Elon intends on becoming the number one Santa based cryptocurrency by Christmas eve. Our objective is 100 Million Marketcap! + +Santa Season is Starting and Santa Elon is at the forefront of Santa Season. + +Get ready for the top Santa Coin of 2021 & A santa Shitpost storm by Elon Musk. + +🎅🏻 Where to get Santa Elon – HOHOHO? + +The process of buying Santa Elon (Ticker $HOHOHO) is simple and straightforward. Simply follow the instructions + +Visit PancakeSwap and tick the “I Understand” box. +Click on “Import” and enter the amount of BNB you want to use to buy $HOHOHO + +Click on “Connect Wallet” and proceed to link a MetaMask wallet. +Once you are done linking your wallet, hit on the “swap” button and you will get the $HOHOHO in your wallet. + +If any questions arise, Santa Elon team can be joined via email, or simply by asking the community in the telegram chat. + +TG : https://t.me/santaelon_bsc + +🎅🏻 Social Media Contacts: + +Telegram: https://t.me/santaelon_bsc + +Twitter: https://twitter.com/HOHOHO_bsc + +Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/santaelonHOHOHO +I am in my last year of training as an emergency medicine resident living in a big Midwest city. I have about $80,000 of student debt from undergrad and $230,000 of student debt from medical school (interest rates ranging from 3.4% to 6.8%). I went to med school straight after undergrad and started residency right after med school. + +Resident salary for the past 3.5 years was about $50,000 (working close to 75 hours per week) so I was only able to make close to minimum payments. Since interest has been accruing while I was in medical school and residency, I have not even begun to dig into the principal debt. Thankfully, I just accepted an offer as an emergency physician with a starting salary of $230,000. + +I'm having trouble coming up with a plan to start paying back my debt as I also want to get married soon (fiance is a public school teacher) and I will need to help my parents financially (immigrant parents struggling to stay afloat). + +Honestly, I'm scared to live frugally for the next 5 or so years because I feel like I've missed out so much during my life already (30 years old, haven't traveled anywhere, been driving a clunker, never owned anything, never been able to really help my parents who risked their lives to come to this country so I can have a better life). And after being around sick people (young and old) during the past 8 years my biggest fear in life is dying or getting sick before being able to enjoy the world. I am scared to wait until I'm in my mid 30s to start having fun and enjoying my life. + +What should I plan to do in the next couple year? Pay most of the debt and save on interest or make standard payments and start doing the things that I really want to do? Somewhere in the middle? Any advice would be appreciated. +I somehow found myself in another "Why don't you just cut unnecessary spending?" spiral, so I've decided to do some math that I and anyone else can copy and paste as needed. + +&#x200B; + +Why don't you stop buying Starbucks/Netflix/beer/movie tickets/whatever occasional purchase you use to feel a little better? Won't that fix your financial situation? Why is the snack/trinket/experience worth more? + +Let me lead with this: Money has no intrinsic value. You avoid spending money on one thing so that you can spend it on another. That's the reason. You can choose to not spend as much on one thing so that you can pay for something else. If the savings on one thing are not enough to purchase the other thing, it makes no sense to not get the enjoyable thing that you can afford. + +The example: + +Let's say you want to buy a car. You can get a nice, new car for $25k. We're ignoring trade in value or savings for a down payment in these calculations because poor people don't tend to have significant equity \[update: not because you are poor in this scenario but because we're going to work from zero with our numbers\]. We're starting from the bottom. The average interest rate for a new car loan in the US is 4.21%. This would make your payments $463/month. + +Now, let's say that you don't want to get that car loan. You want to avoid that pesky interest rate. It just doesn't make financial sense, right? Instead you opt to ride public transit until you can save up enough for the car. The average cost of a transit pass in the US is $67/month. That's $396 less than the car payment, so that's $396/month out of your transportation budget that you can tuck away. + +It will take you **over five years to afford that car**. + +That is five years of only going where the buses run while the buses are running. That is five years of dealing with other people's smells and sounds. That is five years of walking to and from transit stops. + +This is a best case scenario. What if you don't live in a city with adequate transit? What if it's more expensive in your city? What if you work overnight, and the buses don't go in the direction you need at the times you need them to? What if a drunk person pukes or pees on you? Because that happens. + +Given the choice, many of us would just pay the extra to commute in clean privacy for those five years. It's worth it to be able to go where you want when you want. The benefits would outweigh the costs, as evidenced by the number of Americans with auto loans. + +**The only other way to compress that timeline is to be able to increase your transportation budget.** + +This is why broke people buy lattes instead of investing. It's because if you bought a frappuccino every day, it would take **nine and a half years** to spend the equivalent of a 7% down payment on a $250k house. It would take **almost four years** even for a $100k house. + +**You cannot nickel and dime your way out of poverty.** + +If you wouldn't sit in someone else's urine stains for five years, leave the poor person buying an avocado alone. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Yikes. Where do I begin? + +I thought that the first paragraph explained my purpose clearly enough, but this is a scenario meant to explain a certain type of opportunity cost to someone living above a certain standard. Imaginary scenario guy is obviously not that hard up. I'm thinking it was a certain line that confused people, and I've edited it accordingly. + +The daily frappuccino example is a theoretical maximum pulled from a common trope of "financial advice" columns. No broke person is buying one every day, but even if they were, that's the absolute most they could save. No, that number isn't nothing, but that's an imaginary peak. The point is that it's not the coffee that's keeping people out of escrow. + +But look what people did. + +They fought tooth and nail to explain why an imaginary person with the space in their budget should not buy something they want. I've been accused of making up interest rates, never having ridden a bus, never having seen a homeless person \[projection much?\], etc. All my numbers were pulled from national averages compiled in the last year. Some of the numbers were surprising enough to be in headlines. The pee scenario? Pulled from a true story. The struggles of public transit? From my own experience in my city. I've been to cities with beautiful transit that could easily replace a car, but for myself and many other Americans that's just not a realistic situation. + +I was just trying to give people a tool to make a point. That point is that it's not anyone's business to police how somebody else makes their way through a long term problem. (And for a lot of people poverty isn't long term but actually permanent. It's just a fact that many people die in poverty. I'm not being pessimistic. It's a statistic.) + +If I might get something in ten years, it's up to me to decide whether that's worth chipping away at the quality of the days in between. It's not anyone else's job to pass judgement on that decision. Analysis of an opportunity cost is very personal. Let people live. +I won't bring up the specific details, but long story short, my parents are legitimately crazy, one of those extreme situations where everything I do must be kept secret (talking to friends, working a normal job, etc). + +Luckily in the middle of last year I got a job with my brother, he told my parents he would not pay me, then paid me in secret. Since then I have about 10k saved up, but recently they have made it very difficult to even work because I am assuming they somehow figured out I am being paid. Because of this, I will likely lose my job and my income, however, I do have experience working with people, writing resumes, doing interviews, so I don't think getting another job will be super difficult. The main issue for me is how can I get out of this house as quickly as possible? For a while I thought that maybe these things my parents do were normal, but the more I am exposed to the real world (mostly through the internet, which I had very little access to until about 2 years ago) I found out these things are in fact extreme and unusual. + +For a bit more context, I am 17, no car, no license (parents won't let me get one), no friends who would be willing to let me live with them (socializing was very hard because I was homeschooled) I have a associate's degree and as I said, 10k saved up. Whats my best course of action to get away? + +Edit: there are a lot of comments and I am sorry I can't reply to all of them, I'm using an old phone I found to make this post so I can't be seen with it, I just want to say thank you all for the advice given, I don't have any mentors so all this honestly helps. Your kindness means the world to me and I will make sure to read every comment. +After months of coding my trading bot I finally launched it last week and it made profit for 3 days that it ran. After reviewing the code I found a bug that makes the bot do pretty much the opposite of what it is supposed to do. Bug fixed and we are back in business - loosing money more efficiently and without emotional attachment. +I’m 46. Net worth 5.5M with no debt and I hold crypto and real estate. I left my job last June. And I feel zero dread, existential issues or drive to find my next mental battle. I drive the kids to school. Look for new properties. I watch a movie or two weekly when the kids are in school. I take a 10-15 minute nap a day. I may buy a semi absentee franchise to keep me busy but I’m good. I can run this life until I’m dead. Why is everyone so messed up here? Take your wins and go home and be content. +In past discussions with people they often said it is better to invest longterm instead of trading. ' You can't win more than 20% yearly because the statistics will catch up to you. ' is something one guy said. He also added you might win 50% but that is gambling. + +I don't believe that at all and I personally know a guy who worked for less than $20/h and had a portfolio of $2k. He traded his way up to $100k+ trading crypto. I have seen his trades with my own eyes so I know its 100% not made up. + +I think sticking to a strategy ( which most people don't ) and executing it over and over could yield large gains. + +I wanted to know what you guys think of the notion that you can't be profitable with trading and if/ how you have been profitable trading your niche market. +People seem to think that small business "job creators" will be taxed out of existence if taxes for the wealthy are raised, or technically, returned to the higher rates. But, what actually happens is that nearly every penny a business spends to conduct its business is an expense and is not taxable at all. That means inventory, operating expenses, insurance, wages, other taxes etc. are not taxed. + +To give an example: a small business on some main street pulls in $500,000/year. She pays $250,000 on inventory, $50,000 in operating expenses such as rent, utilities, maintenance, insurance, fees, advertisement, supplies and so on, and pays a total of say $150,000 for wages for 6 employees. She is not taxed on any of that money! If she takes all the profits for herself that year, she would be paying herself $50,000 ($500,000 minus inventory costs, operating expenses and wage expenses). Even then she gets standard deductions and exemptions for herself and her family. If she has four people in her family maybe $15,000 will be exempted, and she would pay taxes on only $35,000...a far cry from the $250,000 bracket. + +tldr: +Out of $500,000 revenue for instance, the taxable amount to the small business owner(s) is a small fraction after all the expenses are deducted. + + +EDIT: Great Conversation all! Lots of clarification in the threads and a lot of nonsense and stupidity too lol. +1. Yes the inventory cost is incorrect in my example, it should also include how much inventory was left at the end of the year, and that amount is considered an asset and might be taxed. + +I did what many of you guys have done. I was up before 5am every day, went to work and worked hard. Had great project success. + +In the same time I bought cash flowing real estate and even started a small software company that earns passive income. Everything is pretty secure. + +&#x200B; + +1 year ago I decided to quit a job that was essentially work from home or out of my private office downtown. It was literally the best job a person could have. (They made all kinds of weird exceptions to recruit me. It lead to resentment at the company and I would never suggest getting into that arrangement.) + +The past year has been horrible for me. The lack of socialization, need to get out of the house and even impulsive urges such as drinking at home have taken their toll on me. This year long experiment is over. Hopefully I am still hire-able. + +We will see. It will be fun to get back into the workforce for a bit. I'll be curious to see how it works out. + +**Anybody else do this and decide to go back?** +"She evaluated the performance of the Mensa investment club (Mensa is the organization for people with IQs in the top 2% of the population) during the 15-year period from 1986 to 2001. During that time, the S&P 500’s average annual return was 15.3%, while the Mensa club managed to eke out just 2.5% annually—some 84% worse than the index " + +Forbes Article: [https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/08/16/smart-people-can-make-stupid-investing-decisions/?sh=5fbb909415d5](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/08/16/smart-people-can-make-stupid-investing-decisions/?sh=5fbb909415d5) +My question in the title is basically the whole question. It seems either naive or deliberately obtuse to simply call Capitalism an "Economic System", when it's forces touch on everything the definition of communism is, and possibly those forces as great if not great an impact. Is there a reason for the definition being so simplistic, or is the definition completely wrong and Capitalism is certainly a "philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology"? +Been around for a while and we go through periods of Ethereum vs Bitcoin mentality. This shouldn't be the case because Bitcoin will always remain important in the world of crypto; it's death and loss if credibility will be bad for the entire space. + +At this point the flippening seems to be immenent. I know 90% of the people here are either hxc Ethereum fans or relatively new to the sub, so I think now might be a good time to remind everyone to not shit on Bitcoin(ers) when the flippening actually happens. We want them to join this space. + +Edit: theFlippening is the point in time where Ethereum becomes the dominant coin in market capitalization. Up until now Bitcoin has held that spot. Metrics can be seen at www.flippening.watch + +Removed a sentence because it was stated to be against the rules. +It wasn’t a lot, about $200, but it was an overall gain of 28.95%. I am completely self-taught and really did a lot of time and research to learn so even this small gain is a big win for me! +My wife and I have been grinding away saving for a fat retirement. We've squirreled away about 5million with approx 8million additional after taxes coming from the sale of our business. We're 34 without kids and no plans to have any. We've been throwing around ideas of things to do once we the business is sold. I wanted to generate a conversation around what some folks have done or would like to do once they're fatfired. We've thrown around the idea of traveling Canada and the USA with a 4x4 camper - seeing back country & fishing our way around. + +Buy a boat and travel by ocean + +Head to europe and stay in one place until we get sick of it and move on.. + +&#x200B; + +Anyone have anything they've done and loved or plan to do? We'd like to make the best out of being young, healthy and wealthy! +I was really hoping that this week would be a rebound week for me but if it keeps up like this I'm gonna loose all my profits from the shenanigans of web. All my penny's are down and options are so negative its making me sick. Anyone else feeling the struggle? +[Why some Americans struggle even with higher incomes](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/16/941292021/paycheck-to-paycheck-nation-how-life-in-america-adds-up) \- NPR + +This is a great article about people who are making a decent income but still struggle to pay bills. My question is this: + +Can everyone, or at least most people, live within their means? Or is the cost of living just too high no matter if you're lower income or middle income? + +Survey after survey shows that most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, which always astonished me given America is supposedly one of the wealthiest nations in the world. + +In the linked article, there are actual people's budgets. They have a solid income, but still struggle. Of course they need a phone, but do they need to pay for the new iPhone? Would financial literacy help more people to make more informed decisions about budgeting? Or do we live in such a consumer society that keeping up with the Jones's is worth it to plunge into unnecessary debt? + + I'm really curious to know what some people think. +⬇️ Let me explain you about Revival ⬇️ + +Revival is a community based DeFi project that gives holders the power to self govern major decisions regarding the token and its development. + +Our application development plans include an easily navigated crowdfunding app that will allow users to tell their story and create a wallet used to receive donations, reflections and general savings. + + +We are currently ranked #1500 on Coinmarketcap after being verified. + +[https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/revival/](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/revival/) + +💡 Why should an investor choose Revival? 💡 + +📍Core team doxxed + +📍RugScreen passed + +📍Listed on Pancakeswap and FegEx + +📍Low Market Cap - $3,000,000 + +📍Wireframe and UI for KICKSTAND App in development + +📍Community events (Games/Movie Nights/ GiveAways) + +📍11% BNB Rewards + +📍Active marketing + +📍Locked Dev Wallet + +📍Liquidity locked. + +📍Full transparency - DEV's Active 24/7 in community! + +🧮 Tokenomics 🧮 + +♻️11% BNB rewards + +♻️2% LP + +♻️2% Marketing + +♻️15% Total + +🌐 Where Are The Devs From? 🌐 + +Scotland, England, Spain, India, Ireland, Mexico and the United States of America. + +📈 [Chart](https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0x7eaee60040135f20f508a393ca400ded339d654e) + +📃 Address: 0x7eaee60040135f20f508a393ca400ded339d654e + +💻 As always, DYOR: + +[Official Website](https://www.revivaldefi.com/) + +[Official Discord](https://discord.gg/qT3KPdbcjM) + +[Official Telegram](https://t.me/revivaldefi) +China could hardly be called a developing country, the 2nd highest in GDP, but is pretty [poor](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds?stackMode=relative). Same with India even [after economic liberalization](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds?stackMode=relative&country=~IND). Switzerland has a lower GDP than both of these countries [yet poverty is pretty much close to non-existent] (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-poverty-thresholds?stackMode=relative&country=~CHE). + +I'm starting to see a pattern where countries that should be rich have an impoverished population and are pretty [corrupt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index#Rankings) and [authoritarian](https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=desc&order=Total%20Score%20and%20Status). While the less richer countries, while less rich, have a less impoverished population. +Last year was my first year in investing since 2013. It was easy. Profits were coming from all over. + +Starting this year, I maxed out my TSFA and decided to try my hands at beating the market once again. I started with a medium risk portfolio, something I didn't want to tinker with. However, the more I was on Reddit, the more I began reading, the more I began trading, the more money I was losing. + +I work remote and can check Reddit, Twitter, and my Questrade account whenever I feel like it. Over the last week and a half, I realized I was spending more time doing this instead of working! + +Reading posts about huge gains (and huge losses), DD's (with thousands of upvotes), and wallstreetbets, has been exhausting. I'm sure I'm not alone. + +My goal was to originally make a portfolio that I didn't have to touch but I slowly began drifting away from that goal. + +**Confirmation bias** is rampant here, I see it all the time. People asking if they should hold X hoping for someone to say 'yes' or by joining a company's subreddit where everyone's bullish, etc. It even had an affect on me. + +Stock picking takes a toll, I realized I don't have the time to do it. It also affects my work-life balance. + +I recently went back to the basics and my original strategy of ETFs and holding only 4 individual stocks (one being Apple). Sure, I'll probably miss out on 10 baggers but the peace of mind I get from not having to open up reddit and read all the time makes up for it. + +**How has the market recently affected you're day-to-day life? Have you taken any steps to fix things?** + +P.S. If you're on Twitter and want to block some of the financial noise, I recommend the extension Minimal Twitter. + +&#x200B; +The above quote is from [this](https://zerodha.com/z-connect/traders-zone/trading-psychology/what-does-it-take-to-win-when-trading) article. + +Is this really true? If true then why so many people do trading? +Hope this is on-topic. It's hard to get objective advice from people with numbers this big. I feel like r/fatfire can talk about $1M pretty objectively. + +Coincidentally, my father-in-law and I are both fatfire folks. I do pretty well making 7 figures, and he's retired somewhere in the $5-10M range. + +Me and the missus are moving from a paid off $1M house to a $3.5M house. We already paid the down payment on the new house, and once we sell the $1M house we're planning on putting that money into the market. + +However, my FIL comes from a culture that strongly dislikes debt, so FIL and MIL both want us to pay off the mortgage quickly. They're offering to give $1M on the stipulation that we also put the sale from our $1M house into paying off the mortgage, which would leave us with about an $800k mortgage. + +I should point out that I don't think my in-laws are trying to control or manipulate us at all. They are very supportive in general, it's just that us having an almost $3M mortgage makes them nervous and they're willing to effectively advance my wife's inheritance to reduce our debt burden if we match them. + +Relevant details: We haven't seen my wife's family in years due to covid restrictions. As such, they've missed a few important life milestones so I sense that this is also their way to show their support in absentia. Also, my wife is an only child and her parents have literally told her all this money will be hers one day eventually. + +Wife and I have mixed feelings. We're hoping to get perspective from fatfire folks on both sides of the equation: younger fatfires still grinding it out and investing, as well as from older retired fatfires who are looking to transfer wealth to the next generation. + +EDIT: + +I didn't want to make the post too long but: + +Pros: + +- Hey, I mean it's a million bucks +- Lower debt and pressure (wife doesn't work so the mortgage is entirely on my shoulders. The thought of being $3M in debt has been a tad stressful if I'm being honest). +- They aren't very investment savvy, so if they kept it then it would probably just sit in a bank account accruing low interest. At least if we got it, it would go towards a good cause rather than collecting dust. + +Cons: + +- My wife and I feel like they earned their money and we wish they would indulge themselves more, but they don't. They're very conservative with their spending. If we took it, then that would discourage them from enjoying their money even more. +- There's that (admittedly prideful/selfish) urge to feel like we "bought it on our own" +On many subs any mention of buying investment properties or becoming a landlord is met with down votes and pure negativity. How do you deal with it? I had no idea that so many people saw it as an evil thing until I experienced this. + +Edit: I realize that Reddit opinions aren’t everything and I can just not care. It does make me wonder whether it is a widely held opinion and I’m going to be judged by friends and family if I share though. +Three months ago I was laid off as part of a 60 person lay off in a small company of 125 people. I do Occupational Health and Safety work as I was the Manager. I was given unemployment; been searching for jobs. + +Fast forward 3 months, tax bill passed, etc. I get a phone call from the president of the company asking me to come in because he has an opportunity. He tells me things are picking back up and the company needs me back but he's trying to shop me at a discounted rate. + +I had been with the company 6 years and he says he wants to give me 20 hours at 60% of what I was making to do consulting work for 4 months until my lease is up. This seems like a super low ball offer especially because they don't have to train anyone, I already know all of the employees, I am familiar with their policies as I wrote many of them. Also after 4 months I cant get back on unemployment and having taken such a drastic pay cut I wouldn't be very well equipped to ask for more money in the future. + +I feel like this is a slap in the face and I want to counter offer their 60% slap with a 125% slap back. + +Does this seem unreasonable?? Just seeking some guidance. + +Thanks yall! + +Update: I weighed in at 250%. Haven't received any response it's been a couple of hours since I sent my proposal. I had to run the numbers several times. My head hurt. + +**Update: It's been a week and haven't received a response. +I am just learning economics, but wouldn’t resource scarcity (artificially created or otherwise) be another, pretty obvious cause of inflation? + +Just in general, I don’t fully understand peoples reverence of Friedman, his economic style seems pretty outdated to say the least. Like I said though, just learning the ropes +Whilst it's been expected for a while, just today it's been confirmed that Deliveroo will list on the LSE, as a result of changes made to the listing rules. + +&#x200B; + +Whilst I haven't been excited about recent IPOs, this (and potentially Darktrace) look like the innovative tech companies that London has clearly been missing. Whether I'll jump in at the start, though, I'm undecided... What are your thoughts, does it seem like a good call? + +&#x200B; + +[https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-hails-british-tech-success-deliveroo-as-it-confirms-london-ipo-pick-12235393](https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-hails-british-tech-success-deliveroo-as-it-confirms-london-ipo-pick-12235393) +So here's the thing. I started out with 5k back at the beginning of Covid... got it up to like 18k by a couple months ago (could have been alot more), but AMC took me up to 42k. Finally, my ship has arrived. So I start getting cocky and throwing around 10-15k at a time by looking for the "high volume of the day" low cap stocks that's going hog wild. I got lucky a time or 2, but then got unlucky the next 4 times in a row, and my portfolio is back down to the mid 30's because of those couple of dumb moves. + +So now I'm scared to continue. I mean, it seems like when I think I'm reading something off the charts, it ends up doing the opposite. Is this why people say 9/10 day traders lose their shit ultimately? I am tempted to scale it WAY back to a maximum of say $500 per trade, and maybe start swing trading some large cap stocks instead, with the much more humble goal of attaining a set amount of profit per week ($500 profit per week has a nice ring to it?) + +What say you all? Have you been in my shoes? This post may also be self therapy as much as anything else, but some advice would be cool. + +&#x200B; + +If it helps any, one potential problem I've identified and am working on is being GREEDY. This morning, I was in XELA at $2.30 and could have taken a $1,000+ profit when it peaked at $2.54, but I ended up triggering my stop loss at $2.10 instead. I saw what MRIN did, and wanted that to happen to me. Bad news bear came knocking instead. +**NOTE: By "next TSLA" I mean a stock that grows far beyond what talking heads think is "reasonable". Not that they are company *like* TSLA or that they will see similar returns.** + +EDIT: BECAUSE SOME PEOPLE CAN'T READ, BB IS NOT GOING TO BECOME A NEARLY TRILLION DOLLAR COMPANY LIKE TESLA. The comparison is with a company that is undervalued because it's going to get in on a *brand new* market that it helps create. + +--- + +BB has some elevated short interest for sure. That short interest may even be increasing. However the float on the stock is massive compared to GME. There are over 550 million available shares of BB, and the short interest is below 100%. While there may be some movement up based on shorts covering, GME is a once in a lifetime thing. + +Nothing is the next GME. Not AMC, not NOK, not BB. The large players aren't ever going to be caught this way again in a place where retail investors can screw them, and GME isn't over. If what you want it to participate in that, then you should buy GME. + +But I think BB is *fundamentally* more valuable than its current price. + +## Current Situation of the Company + +BlackBerry, which started as Research In Motion, was the "original" smartphone company, before Apple ate them alive. They didn't have the product pipelines or the money to compete against Apple, and the company was nearly killed by the iPhone and later the Samsung Galaxy brand. + +Over the last several years, BlackBerry has pivoted into a software security company. They mainly sell security products with a focus on machine learning and artificial intelligence. + +From Fidelity: + +> BlackBerry Limited provides intelligent security software and services to enterprises and governments worldwide. The company leverages artificial intelligence and machine learning to deliver solutions in the areas of cybersecurity; safety and data privacy; and endpoint security management, encryption, and embedded systems. + +Over the last year, BB has re-positioned itself to take advantage of the nascent market of autonomous and intelligent vehicles. (Source: [AWS and BlackBerry QNX join forces to accelerate auto innovation with BlackBerry IVY, a new intelligent vehicle data platform](https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/industries/aws-and-blackberry-qnx-join-forces-to-accelerate-auto-innovation-with-blackberry-ivy-a-new-intelligent-vehicle-data-platform/)) + +> BlackBerry IVY is a scalable, cloud-connected software platform that allows automakers to provide a consistent and secure way to read vehicle sensor data, normalize it, and create actionable insights from that data both locally in the vehicle and in the cloud. Automakers can use this information to create responsive in-vehicle services that enhance driver and passenger experiences as well as provide valuable product insights back to the manufacturer. + +They also have a partnership with Baidu for that company's Apollo autonomous driving open platform. (Source: [BlackBerry Expands Partnership with Baidu to Power Next Generation Autonomous Driving Technology](https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/company/newsroom/press-releases/2021/blackberry-expands-partnership-with-baidu-to-power-next-generation-autonomous-driving-technology)) + +> BlackBerry Limited (NYSE: BB; TSX: BB) today announced an expansion of its strategic partnership with Baidu, whose high-definition maps will run on the QNX® Neutrino® Real-time Operating System (RTOS) and will be mass-produced in the forthcoming GAC New Energy Aion models from the EV arm of GAC Group (Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.). +> +> ... +> +> The QNX Neutrino RTOS foundation for Baidu’s high-definition maps is a robust real-time microkernel operating system that provides deterministic performance as well as flexibility to address the limited resources of the embedded system. + +Their QNX system is already used in over 100 million cars that are currently on the road, including a direct partnership with [Ford](https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22007012/blackberry-ford-extend-partnership-to-develop-car-software) that they've had since 2016. + +They are in the final stages of completing an amazing turnaround as a company, and it looks like they have a good chance of doing it successfully. So what are the challenges? + +## Balance Sheet Issues + +BB has almost 2/3 of their current "assets" tied up in patents. This can be seen on their 2019 balance sheet as "Intangible Assets – Total: $2.352 billion". Their assets which are easier to liquidate are nearly exactly their current liabilities ($1.196 billion vs. $1.121 billion), as they added $638 million in debt in FY2019. + +Just a few weeks ago, BlackBerry sold 90 of its smartphone patents to Huawei. It also signed a licensing deal with OnwardMobility and Foxconn to allow it's name and software to be used in making a new 5G Android-powered smartphone that has a physical keyboard, filling a small but important niche in the smartphone industry that is mostly untapped at this point. + +These moves signal the intent of BlackBerry to leverage parts of its balance sheet that have been mostly sitting idle since 2016 when they exited the smartphone market for good as a manufacturer. + +The challenge is that their cash flow and income have been negative or paltry for quite a while. That was never going to turn around until they were able to monetize some of their existing IP and position the company for a solid market segment. At this point, they have successfully done both. + +## Earnings + +This section definitely depends on your focus and perspective. For instance, BlackBerry's GAAP EPS has been negative more than positive since 2016. But on the other hand, their adjusted actual EPS has beaten consensus estimates for every single quarter going back to Q3 2015. + +If you believe in Chen's ability to execute the turnaround, then this seems positive. If you think the company is destined for failure and a slow death, then this seems negative. + +## Conclusions + +Overall, I think BB is undervalued at its current price. They are very well positioned to take off as autonomous vehicles become more common, and most importantly, they have extremely valuable partnerships in many different markets, including some fantastic access to the Chinese market through their partnership with Baidu. + +Autonomous vehicles are a market that doesn't exist yet. Not truly. But many people believe that autonomous vehicles are going to turn into a HUGE segment of the market over the next decade. While car companies (particularly TSLA) provide direct exposure to that, they come with manufacturing risks and other things such as supply-chain risks. TSLA, Toyota, Ford... they could all face issues that simply come down to "we ran out of good suppliers of Cadmium" or something similar, while what you want is exposure to autonomous vehicles. + +BB has none of that. Their revenue and exposure to the market is entirely within the software, and because of their wide range of partnerships they shouldn't be dependent on any particular manufacturer. I expect to see them reporting positive earnings during FY2021 (though only slightly), and a much more obviously robust performance in FY2022. + +Their patent portfolio alone in 2020 was worth about what their market cap was, that's how undervalued this company was due to concern about earnings. Once those earnings turn around, I think the valuation based on *only* fundamentals should put the stock at about $20 *right now*, and about $30-$35 by the end of this year. + +There is also a non-trivial chance of a purchase by another company such as Alphabet that wants access to their partnerships, patent portfolio, and machine learning software. + +--- + +DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. It is an organization of my own thinking behind the positions I have opened with my money. + +--- + +Overall, BB benefits from its meme-stock status, and a bit of a short squeeze could happen for sure. But based just on my reading of their business itself, I think the stock has room to as much as triple within a year. + +Current position disclosure: + +100 BB @ 14.2687 ++4 19 FEB 21 15c @ 4.125 ++2 19 FEB 21 40c @ 1.93 ++1 19 MAR 21 25c @ 4.64 +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I used to be a proud trader and investor, determined to break through the shackles of society to reach financial freedom. I started out with almost zero, and by capitalizing on the stock market frenzy last year, I was able to completely change my life around. I used to think that if I worked hard, did my due diligence, traded smartly, I could make great investments and someday reach the pinnacle of my financial dreams. Something has shifted now. I no longer feel the same way, and I'm not sure if I ever will again. + +I wonder if it's naive of me to have thought that the free market was fair. I'm not American so I wasn't aware of the parties involved during the financial crisis in 2008, but it seems that many people are equating what's happening now to back then, calling out the blatant market manipulation in favor of the rich at the expense of the poor. + +They can crash multiple brokerages at the same time, disable purchase of specific stocks instantaneously, manipulate price action in real-time by changing the supply/demand, unleash a short ladder attack on the stock price while the trade volume is being restricted. We've always understood that the media was manipulated, but it was up to us if we wanted to listen. But our direct purchase of stocks, and outright price action manipulation, suddenly it feels very personal. + +It just makes me so sad to know that this hobby of mine that I've enjoyed and come to love so much, is actually controlled by people at the top who can do whatever they want, at any time they want in favor of their own interests. I came into the investing world filled with hope and excitement, and passion for the art of understanding business and capitalizing on opportunities. I'm sad to think that I may never have this outlook again, in light of everything that's been coming out. Just looking for words of encouragement right now. I love investing and I don't want that joy to be taken from me + +EDIT: This is not about money, it's about the integrity of the market. After some consideration, I am, and will continue to hold and buy the stock, no matter the tricks they play. +I was discussing a pay rise with my manager today (who is great and always looks out for my interests) and we were talking about a $10k pay rise and he asked if it was really the best idea as I would go up a bracket and get taxed more… + +What are some face palm moments you guys have had +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: + +*** + +- Follow the Golden Rule. All other rules apply as well. Follow [this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules) to view the rest of them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +More or less all stock prices have been continously falling for the last week, if not longer. The housing market sees skyrocketing prices, the price on food, gas and electricity is increasing, and subsequently the consumer spending index drops. All of this leads to an increase in inflation. + +Are we going to see a stock market crash and financial crisis, like the ones in 1929 and 2008? Or are things different this time? + +Also, should I personally be worried that I'm not going to be able to get a job, and afford stuff like a house and a normal standard of living, once I've finished my education in 5-6 years? + Ive seen quite a lot of news for this company the last few months and their stock currently sits $1.61 a share. Up 109% from last year. The Company just had some successful tests of its drones last week. Is this a good opportunity long term investment or a dud? +What new creature comforts, possessions, luxuries did you gain access to that you didn't have when you were worth only a million? +How has life changed from 1M to 10M+? +TGT has a market cap of $102B compared to COST at $231B. + +Yet TGT has TTM after tax income of $6.7B compared to COST with 5.2B. + +TGT's Equity + Retrained earnings are $23B compared to COST with $29B. + +So given that Costo has about $7 Billion more in total assets, does that justify twice the price for $1B less in income? Seems to me that TGT is a much better deal and showing better net income growth. So what am I missing? +I became a single mom in October. Found out my ex was cheating on me with a 19 year old. He flushed a 10 year relationship/6 marriage down the drain. I had suddenly been thrust into single motherhood with no guide. I did everything I could think of - signed up for all of the government assistance I qualified for but even with that, I only get paid once a month and have struggled. My ex hasn't paid a cent in child support yet, so I've had to budget and account every single penny. I've had to go without to make sure my kiddos (11 months and 5 years old) were taken care of. Christmas was lackluster for my 5 year old and my youngest turns 1 today! Yesterday, when I checked my bank account, my monthly stipend for being a full time student was short by a few hundred bucks. I had a panic attack before making a few calls ans getting it figured out. I'll get that money I was shorted back, but it's going to take anywhere from 14 to 21 business days which isn't helpful for me right now. After budgeting what I did receive, I realized fuck, I don't have enough for diapers/wipes/toiletries. The shit you just kind of forget until it's time to buy again. + +So I made a plea on my NextDoor app. I asked if any neighbors had diapers to spare for my youngest. I gave a brief background on why I needed them and how thankful I would be. + +Not even two hours later, I went to take a bag of garbage out to the dumpster and there was a box of diapers in front of my door. No note, so I have no idea who left it. I threw the trash out and brought the box inside and started ugly crying. My 5 year old asked if I was OK which just made me ugly cry harder while the baby napped. Made another thank you post to whoever left the box behind. One less thing to stress about. One act of kindness to make my entire day. I did not think I'd end up crying over a box of dang Luvs diapers but here I am. Life can be funny in ways sometimes! +Earlier this year I had my 6 months of expenses in a savings account. But then around February-April inflation fears started being spread all across the media. And instead of being afraid of stock market crash. My thoughts were why am I keeping so much cash in a savings account if inflation is eating away at it each year. + +My thinking is even if my portfolio crashes 90%. I would still have enough to cover 6 months of expenses. But the thing is if that worst case happens and SPY/VOO/VTI crashed 90% there might be bigger issues in the world than the money I lost. The best case is my capital appreciates higher than the .01% as well as higher than inflation it would have gotten in a savings account. Anyone else do this? +**Like the title says, this shit is cray cray and we can’t spend all afternoon moderating it. If you make a post and think it's a quality contribution to the subreddit send a message to modmail and we can approve it.** + +The last two days have seen something like 200 post removals to start with, so with WSB going private and it being 7pm already, which is when we're typically light on mods, I'm just going to step in and stop this nonsense for the time being. + +Also, Reddit has been having server issues all day meaning automod is just fucking up all over the place and not doing it's job. This also means modmail is on the fritz, so if you don't get a response in a timely manner I apologize but there's not a lot we can do about it - I couldn't even message other mods to warn em I was doing this. Reddit is a shitshow rn and we can't spend our whole night fixing it unfortunately. If people weren't spamming the sub with garbage all day we wouldn't be here. + +Lastly, as a PSA to all of the people who think they've been on WSB for a while and are confused: you haven't been on WSB for a while if this is confusing. They regularly go private. It's not the SEC, it's not the FBI, it's not whomever else they say is investigating them. It's because the mods are tired of dealing with noobs that flood the sub after a media event so they just shut it down. Hopefully that don't hit ya like a brick in the ol cranium... + +This is why we can't have nice things. + +Apologies to all the real ones. + +E: Just FYI, if you're messaging modmail about getting a post approved, and your post is about GME, Short squeezes, your thoughts on shorts, or whatever else, then there's a 99.99% chance it's not getting approved unless you have a very in depth analysis or some new and important news item. Add your thoughts to one of the existing threads. + +e2: looks like they're back, I'm still going to keep the post block here for a bit, prior to WSB going down we had probably 40 threads that should have been comments in existing threads. To be completely honest we have been in need of some sort of overhaul in both moderation and rules for some time - the onslaught of frankly very low effort posts over the last few days has only served to expose just how much we rely on users to do the right thing with regard to posting, this isn't the thread for that, and I'm slammed at work, but it's gotta happen at some point. + +e3: y'all, 5 people DMd me and 6 others messaged our modmail asking for access to WSB. That is NOT how reddit works lol. I do think this is illustrative of how many people have flocked to this sub and this site without understanding any of it recently. + +e4: in the last 60 minutes there were 53 new submissions, of those only 4 were actual posts worth making. I'm gonna leave the sub locked for a bit till we get a better solution, there's just no way to moderate this onslaught +Throwaway account. + +My parents wired 335k to scammers on Tuesday thinking it was going to the title company. They discovered today (now two days later) at closing that their money is gone. A complaint with the FBI has been filed. They have also spoken with Fidelity and their bank. + +I'm not sure what advice to give them at this point. Do they lawyer up? What are the chances of them getting any of this money back? + +Any advice would be much appreciated. Thanks! + +Edit: Parents called Wells Fargo and still couldn't get a lot of info. HOWEVER it does sound like some sum of money is frozen with the bank, so we are hoping for good news. They are also meeting with a lawyer tomorrow to possibly go after the title company. + +Edit/Update #2, for those of you asking exactly how this happened: My parents had been emailing back and forth with the relator about wiring the money. They then received an email from what they thought was the title company with instructions for the wire transfer. The scammers got to my parents before they even talked to the title company. It seems to me that the relator's email was probably compromised. The title company is not at fault. The money was wired from Fidelity to a Wells Fargo, likely in South Carolina as that was what was on the wiring instructions (we are located in Texas). Neither Fidelity nor Wells Fargo are answering questions. They called the FBI, but they just said to fill out a form (which my parents already did). They also filed a police report. +So after my deposit today I just hit on average 1 dollar per month! Given some months will be more than others but I’m pretty happy! My first goal of investing is complete! My next goal is $50 per year. I know it doesn’t sound like much but in my situation it is. + +I here lots of people talk about the snowball effect and the power of compounding. I agree with that, but I wanted to ask everyone here at what point did you notice the snowball start rolling? I’m yet to see it for myself and I’m just wondering at what point do you guys notice it take place? Thank you so much! This is such a great sub + +Edit: Some people saying my age I should go for more growth stocks and dividends aren’t for me. I’m 18 and I have growth stocks such as Amazon, Tesla etc. This is also accounting for ETFS which I don’t include in my 1 dollar per month. + + +# A Northern Ontario mineral solution that kills COVID-19 is heading to commercial production + +[Catalyst 🚀🌝](https://www.reddit.com/r/Canadapennystocks/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Catalyst%20%F0%9F%9A%80%F0%9F%8C%9D%22&restrict_sr=1)production + +A one in the world deposit of volcanic graphite for EV battery and also branching into the medical field. Awesome Canadian innovation. Another company near the Ring Of FIre. Graphite for EV battery future of Ontario. + +[https://www.sootoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-sault-ste-marie-news/a-northern-ontario-mineral-solution-that-kills-covid-19-is-heading-to-commercial-production-3517499](https://www.sootoday.com/coronavirus-covid-19-sault-ste-marie-news/a-northern-ontario-mineral-solution-that-kills-covid-19-is-heading-to-commercial-production-3517499) + +A Northern Ontario mineral solution that kills COVID-19 is heading to commercial production + +A surgical mask coated with ZEN Graphene Solutions' anti-viral ink goes into full-scale manufacturing mode this spring 19 minutes ago By: Northern Ontario Business Staff + +📷HyperFocal: 0 + +A Thunder Bay and Guelph-based technology company that's produced a COVID-19-killing coating for personal protective equipment (PPE), using Northern Ontario-source graphite material, has been given the green light to head to commercial production this spring. + +ZEN Graphene Solutions was advised by its manufacturing partner, Trebor Rx Corp., that surgical masks with ZEN’s biocidal coating have passed Health Canada testing requirements as a level 2 medical device. + +The coated masks were tested at a Health Canada-approved facility in line with American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. + +Trebor intends to begin marketing the ZEN-coated four-ply masks immediately with products available in April. Both companies intend to ramp up production to meet the strong demand Trebor is now receiving. + +ZEN developed a graphene-based virucidal ink coating that can be applied as an agent to N-95 masks or fabrics. Third-party lab testing at Nucro-Technics showed it was 99.9 per cent effective in rendering the COVID-19 virus inactive after a seven-day repeated dose study. + +The anti-viral ink formulation they produced is a processed graphene product pulled from a bulk sample material extracted at ZEN's high-grade Albany deposit, located west of Hearst. The highly-pure deposit was discovered just off Highway 11 in 2011.  At that time, the company was known as Zenyatta Ventures. + +“When we announced our initial agreement with Trebor late last year, it was truly a historic day for ZEN," said ZEN CEO Greg Fenton in a March 3 news release. + +"Now, with the requisite approvals and safety data in place, our initial agreement is poised to become a commercial reality. Importantly, we bring a new innovative product with an added level of protection to our front-line workers and the public while setting the stage for what we believe is substantial growth potential and tremendous value creation. + +"We are extremely excited to have achieved this milestone with our partners at Trebor and expect the demand for personal protective equipment with biocidal protection to grow in tandem with our relationship.” + +In statement, Trebor CEO George Irwin said their four-ply mask is "gamechanging" technology. + +"The additional layer of protection from ZEN’s biocidal coating against COVID-19 and various other bacterial and fungal pathogens, including the common cold virus, is the disrupter we need to get ahead of this and the other mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus." + +Trebor is preparing its facilities in Collingwood and Edmonton for the start of a production run in April. + +"This announcement is the culmination of many hours of hard work by the people at both ZEN and Trebor, and it shows that innovative technology is alive and well in Canada as we work toward making lives safer every day," said Irwin. + +ZEN has been developing a slew of different graphene-based products in their research pipeline to use them a carbon nanomaterial additive in auto parts, industrial coatings, lubricants, lithium-ion batteries, high-strength concrete, water desalination and purification membranes. + +0 comments +AT&T - 5% dividend yield +Altria - 7.79% dividend yield +American Eagle - 6.12% dividend yield + +Just a few but there are plenty more. With AT&T you’d only need 2% or so stock price increase and you’d be beating average S&P performance. + +I haven’t done a deep dive yet, but on the surface AT&T seems like a typical Buffet style value play. + +Thoughts? Reasons this wouldn’t be a decent strategy given the current state of the market? + +Edited because my AT&T dividend yield was way off, 5%, not 9% +My friend and I were having a debate but neither of us are experts. To me the math shows that raising the minimum wage is a part of the solution, but it got me thinking if we can lower the cost of living. What would the consequences be for both? + Being a dabbler in economics, I´ve become increasingly interested in resolving the contradictively compelling arguments of both Socialism and Capitalism. I´ve noticed that when it comes to having everyday discussions about these topics, people respond not so much to ideological a priori arguments (which happen to be the ones Im most familiar with), but rather, to empirical evidence demonstrating the success (or lack thereof) of each economic system. + +&#x200B; + +So for instance, instead of defending the intrinsic value of human freedom (e.g. Milton Friedman) or the concept of worker alienation (e.g. Marx), I´ve found citing aspects like GDP growth, Inequality Measures, measures of life satisfaction, etc. to have a higher degree of persusasive power. + + +So my question is, are there any books you could recommend to me avidly defending Capitalism and Socialism (respectively) on a strong empirical basis, that are at the same time accesible and understandable to the non-economist? + +I´ve been wanting to resolve this issue in my mind for a while. I have a temperamental disposition towards left leaning, state-involved policies, but have difficulty reckoning with the arguments of really smart people on the right who emphasize a lack of government intrusion and free market policies. +Background: 25 years old, living in the northeast US. Recently paid off $50k in student loans and now completely debt free. Around $75k saved for retirement and $10k liquid. + +I'm thinking about leaving my current stressful but well-paid job at a tech company in a few months and finding an opportunity abroad on Workaway or HelpX. The plan would be to work on a farm or in a hostel abroad (Europe or South America) for a couple months then returning to the states to dive back in with another company. + +My expenses would be around $1000/mo during this period but I wouldn't be able to save as aggressively as I have been doing. Still, I think it would be an extremely fulfilling experience. I currently rent so I'd do this at the end of my lease, don't have a car to unload, and have been trimming down on possessions so I could easily keep my belongings with family while I'm away. I'm also a dual citizen (US/NL) and could legally work in Europe for this period. + +Is this something that's worth pursuing or just reckless? Has anyone here has experience doing something similar? + +**EDIT:** Just want to say thank you to those who have added their thoughts here. Was not expecting this kind of response or consensus when I posted. It's easy to lose perspective in a career track where competition and profits are #1 above all else. It's so, so helpful to get input from a group of people with all kinds of experiences and goals to help me find my way a little more clearly. +Let me preface this post with a very clear statement: I'm not the gatekeeper of theta gang, nor are my opinions infallible and perfect. The aim here is to define what *I* consider to be theta gang strategies. + +Why? Because I keep seeing more and more posts that are doing things which *for me* do not belong under the theta gang umbrella. With a large influx of new users recently due to the whole GME thing, I am worried that some of these posts can be misinterpreted as strategies which are safe yet bring outstanding returns. + +Ok, so what is a theta strategy? IMO, these are strategies which primarily rely on time decay of short option positions to bring profits. As an important part of the definition I would consider that these strategies have to be relatively safe. Two most common theta strategies are selling Cash Secured Puts (CSP) and Covered Calls (CC). CSPs involve selling put options while having enough cash to get assigned the shares. CSPs as a theta gang strategy also means that you are absolutely willing to get assigned these shares and hold them while you sell CCs against them. CCs means that you are selling call options and have enough shares to cover these options in case you get assigned. Again, I only consider selling CCs as theta gang strategy if you're ok with the shares being called away. + +What is the "correct" way to sell CSPs (again IMO)? Before you sell a CSP as part of theta strategy, you should make sure that you are absolutely happy to hold the shares at that price, i.e., you actually believe the company is worth that much. If you get assigned, there should be no panic, it's just a normal part of theta gang. I sell CSPs on ZM, got assigned, I'm fine. Just sell a CC on them and move on with my day. If you feel anxious about your position, it's probably not theta gang. + +I want to specifically address put spreads which seem to have become popular recently. Are they theta gang? They *can be*, but in the way they have been used they are certainly not. I would consider a put spread as theta gang when you are somewhat worried that there might be a lot of fluctuation in the market in the short term so you're worried that the price of the underlying could suddenly drop significantly and you don't want to carry this paper loss while it's recovering. So you do a put spread, and if the price drops you get assigned while collecting some cash from the long put. You took less premium but you hedged against some bad thing happening, nothing wrong with that. I personally never use spreads because I hedge using other means, but like I said, this is a valid strategy. But the posts I've been seeing with 50% profit in a day on 250 contracts are most definitely *not* theta. Would you be fine getting assigned 25,000 shares of PLTR? If yes, I apologize. But OP claimed his/her whole account was about that size so this was definitely not a play to get assigned the shares. This was a play purely based on the move of the price of the underlying (i.e., delta). If the stock moved the other way, the loss would have been 100%, assuming they didn't close early. Not theta gang. With theta gang, you should never have to close early because your position is losing money. The only way I would close a losing position early is if new information about the company came about which made me rethink my thesis on this company. + +In short, there are many ways to make money gambling, I mean investing. It is however important IMO to be upfront about the risk/reward tradeoff involved, especially with so many new users who can be easily lured into trades they do not understand. I get the need to show off somewhat on an amazing trade you did, but there are other subs more appropriate for this sort of thing, if your trade isn't really in the spirit of this particular sub. Again, my personal opinions, not financial advice, you don't get to sue me because you lost money etc etc. +**#What's New?** + +Sonar broke ATH today and is on track to continue to grow and deliver on it's promises to it's holders. + +For months now Sonar has been interviewing/recruiting/selecting developers and with pleasure the team can announce that the Eth-bridge is going live on testnet today. +([https://twitter.com/SonarToken/status/1426136412903116808](https://twitter.com/SonarToken/status/1426136412903116808)) + +Very soon $PING will be available for purchase on the Ethereum blockchain. + +SONAR has just announced a partnership with INDACOIN that would allow users to purchase their native token $PING with fiat. This will facilitate the purchasing of the native PING token to new and existing users alike and will also open the door to 500K+ existing Indacoin users to the possibility of joining the Sonar family. + +**#What is Sonar?** + +The Sonar Platform is a multi-chain analytical tool, which presents its users with an interface that tracks social network/influencer trends, vets contract code, price charts, creates price action alerts, executes orders, as well as feature other innovative and unique solutions, including the implementation of artificial intelligence for investments. + +The Sonar Platform intends to serve as a crypto analysis one-stop-shop and provides users with all the necessary tools and information need to make smart investment choices, increase profitable trading and reduce the likelihood of traders falling for rugpulls and honeypots. + +Sonar $PING had a successful TechRate Audit and is listed on CMC, CG and Blockfolio. The Core Team is fully doxed, KYC’d have based the entire business around full transparency. The Q3 roadmap has been completed 2 months ahead of time and Q4 targets are already in development. + +**#Sneak Peek** + +Another collaboration is in the works between Sonar and a Multi Billion Dollar Company. This tech collaboration will ensure Sonar has all the resources for years to come, and will cement Sonar as a leading company in this space - Stay Tuned! + +**#What's in progress:** + +🔥 Incorporation in process +📣 Big announcements coming this week +⭐️ Eth-bridge live on testnet +📊 Charting tool in 2 months +🔓 Sonar Wallet in 3 months + +**#What's been done:** + +✅ Indacoin partnership soon (enabling creditcard purchases) +✅ Doxxed Core Team +✅ Real Use Case (Utility Token) +✅ Clear Roadmap and Whitepaper on website +✅ Techrate audit complete +✅ Long term partnership with CryptoMonks, Cryptoken Media and Bart Baker +✅ Listed on CMC +✅ Listed on CG +✅ Doxxed Founders Team +✅ Real Use Case (Utility alt coin) +✅ Q3 Roadmap complete in 1 month + +**Transaction taxes:** + +💰 3% tax to Liquidity Pool to create a stable price floor +🤑 2% tax to Redistribution +👨‍🔬 2% tax to Sonar Innovation Lab Wallet +👨‍💻 3% tax to Sonar Marketing and Development Wallet + +**Socials:** + +**✉️ Tele**gram: [https://www.t.me/sonar\_official](https://www.t.me/sonar_official) +📷Instagram: [https://www.instagram.com/sonar\_token/](https://www.instagram.com/sonar_token/) +🐦Twitter: [https://twitter.com/SonarToken](https://twitter.com/SonarToken) +⭕️Reddit: [https://www.reddit.com/r/sonarplatform](https://www.reddit.com/r/sonarplatform) +🎮Discord: [https://www.discord.gg/7kuNHxZeCP](https://www.discord.gg/7kuNHxZeCP) +🎥Tiktok: [https://www.vt.tiktok.com/ZSJ9oBTDo/](https://www.vt.tiktok.com/ZSJ9oBTDo/) +📽Youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCixkuolcOuQdEnn80E-tyew](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCixkuolcOuQdEnn80E-tyew) +👫Facebook: [https://www.facebook.com/Sonar-Token-107371881570425](https://www.facebook.com/Sonar-Token-107371881570425) +🌐 Website: [https://www.sonarplatform.io](https://www.sonarplatform.io/) +I have been following GME since mid-September and over that time I have banked myself a %1300 return in the process. However, the whole time I was a little puzzled with how severe the reactions from Wall Street have been, especially this week. "The company had more than 100% of its stock sold short! That's never happened before!", you say. I know, I know, but that's [not actually not a new thing](https://www.forbes.com/2006/08/25/naked-shorts-global-links-cx_lm_0825naked.html?sh=f59ff078400b). A short squeeze, even one of this magnitude, should have squoze by now with GME up more than 10x in the span of weeks. Something is just not right. **I think there is something much, much bigger going on here. Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system.** + +Here is my hypothesis: I think the hedge funds, clearing houses, and DTC executed a coordinated effort to put Game Stop out of business by conspiring to create a gargantuan number of counterfeit shares of GME, possibly 100-200% or more of the shares originally issued by Game Stop. In the process, they may have accidentally created a bomb that could blow up the entire system as we know it and we're seeing their efforts to cover this up unfold now. What is that bomb? **I believe retail investors may hold more than 100% of GME** (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company). This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system. + +For you to follow this argument, you need to go read the white paper ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) so you understand how the hedge funds can create fake stock out of thin air and disguise it so it looks like real shares. They use these fake shares in [short attacks to drive the price of a company down until they put them into bankruptcy](https://seekingalpha-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/instablog/11442671-gerald-klein/3096735-anatomy-of-a-short-attack?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D). This practice seems to be widespread among hedge funds that go short. There is even a term for it, "strategic fails–to–deliver." Counterfeiting shares is extremely illegal (similar level to counterfeiting money) but it's very difficult to prove and even getting the court to approve subpoenas because of the way the financial industry has stacked the deck against investigations. + +This completely explains why so many levels of the financial system seem to be actively trying to get in the way of retail investors purchasing more GME. It's not just about a short squeeze, it's about their firms' very existence and their own personal freedom. We have the opportunity to put all these people in jail by proving that we own more than 100% of shares in existence. + +There are are **71 million shares** of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via [13F filings](https://fintel.io/so/us/gme) that they own more than **102,000,000 shares** (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). Now, I don't know the delay/variance on these ownership numbers, but I think there is a pretty solid argument that close to 100% of GME is owned by these firms, if not more. + +Moreover, there are now more than 7 million people subscribed to r/wallstreetbets\~\~. I know lots of people here are sitting on a few hundred shares that they bought back when it was under $50. Some of us are even holding thousands. If the average number of shares owned by each subscriber is even close to 5-10, we have a very good shot at also owning a similarly enormous amount of GME.\~\~ **Even if the average was just 10 shares per legit subscriber, that puts the minimum retail position at about 30-50% of the entire company.** + +GME has been on the NYSE threshold list for almost a month. We don't have January data yet, but I just analyzed the data from the [SEC's fails–to–deliver list for December](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) (all 65,871 lines of it) and looked up the number of shares that were likely counterfeit. For comparison, I did the same for a couple random tickers. Most companies have close to no shares not show up. Of those that do, it's a relatively small number of shares. For example, two random companies: Lowes ($LOW, \~$125B market cap) had 13,960 shares fail to be delivered at its highest point that month, Boston Beer Company ($SAM, $11.5B market cap) had 295 shares fail to be delivered. + +How many shares of GME failed to deliver? **1,787,191.** As the white papers points out, the true number of counterfeit shares can be 20x this number. How bad do you think that number will be when we get the numbers for January? I'm willing to bet its many times that. Look at how that compares to other companies' stock: + +[Histogram showing number of shares that weren't delivered in December \(x-axis\) vs the number of companies that fall into that bin \(y-axis\). GME is an extreme outlier.](https://preview.redd.it/g723jvyhine61.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=39bad6c47b428d364de36e9888de35b79572d1da) + +I think this explains all the shenanigans going on the last few days. There is way too much counterfeit GME stock out there and DTC, the clearing houses, and the hedge funds are all in on it. That's why there has been such a coordinated effort to disrupt our ability to buy shares. **No real shares can be found** **and it's about to cause the system to fall apart.** + +*TLDR; We probably own way more of GME than we think and that is freaking out Wall Street because it could prove they've been up to some extremely illegal shit and the whole system could implode as a result.* + +Disclaimer: I'm just a starving engineering PhD student and I don't work in finance. I have no inside knowledge of how the financial system works and I may be wrong on some of this. This is not financial advice and you shouldn't trade based on it. I am book-smart but I still eat crayons like the rest of you. Obligatory rocket: **🚀** + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 0: Looks like I truly belong on this sub. On the first version of this post I didn't read the file description properly and summed a cumulative distribution. My numbers were wrong, but I have updated the plot and post with the correct numbers. + +EDIT 1: You should also note this is the distribution for NASDAQ tickers, not the entire NYSE. I doubt that the distribution trend is any different though. + +EDIT 2: Evidence that Fannie May and Freddie Mac were killed in 2008 via short attacks using counterfeit shares: [report](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-09/s70809-407a.pdf). Exactly what I think they were trying to do to GME. + +EDIT 3: A lot of people were hung up on the "3 shares per wsb subscriber thing". I know many accounts are bots, I was intentionally underestimating that number. I have adjusted to 10 shares per "legit subscriber" to reflect this without changing the total amount I think retail owns. + +EDIT 4: What I'm seeing on Twitter makes me think I'm being interpreted a little too hyperbolically when I say "Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system.**" We're not going to go back to mud huts, people.** This could just be really disruptive for a short amount of time and cause a number of firms to face liquidity problems, possibly bankrupting some of them. Life will go on and I'm confident regulators and government will step in and protect people if necessary. Hopefully they pay more attention to enforcing securities laws going forward to prevent this from happening again. + +EDIT 5: [Backup link for white paper.](https://web.archive.org/web/20210131014127/counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) + +EDIT 6: I am getting thousands of messages. I won't be able to respond to all of them. Here is an FAQ: + +1. *How do I learn investing?*I am not an authority on this, but my personal opinion is to first learn how to read a company's financial documents and value businesses and only then start thinking about putting your money into specific stocks. Read "the intelligent investor" by Benjamin Graham for this. Then learn how to think about picking stocks. I like Peter Lynch's books for this. +2. *What is going to happen this week?*I have no idea and I wouldn't dare to guess. +3. *Are you going to be killed?*I don't know where people are getting this idea. I have no special knowledge or insider contacts, and I am in no way, shape, or form an expert on the market or the system behind it. Please treat my tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories as just that. There is nothing to gain from harming me and I have no doubts about my safety. These are just personal opinions and I don't have any schemes to "take down the shorts" or anything like that. I do not advocate for you to buy, hold, or sell. I'm just postulating on how we might have found ourselves in this place. +Doing this just seems to make sense: you help fill the gap that the drop in consumer spending has created and you produce something useful that would likely improve efficiency and the productive capacity of the economy. This seems especially suited to the US due to some of the country’s antiquated infrastructure. + + +This is why I can’t work out why the US wouldn’t try and stimulate the economy in this way. China has been investing heavily in infrastructure so much so that some believe the massive increase in the price of iron is because of this. Why isn’t the US doing the same? + +EDIT: [here](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3409546-Emergency-NatSec50Projects-121416-1-Reduced.html) is a lost of vital nationally significant infrastructure projects where it would make sense for the federal budget to be used to fund them. +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-rent-was-paid-in-april-by-nearly-a-third-of-american-renters-2020-04-08?link=MW_latest_news + +Only the first week was studied so the number may improve but given all the circumstances this will likely be a continuing trend over the next month or two + +> Only 69% of tenants paid any of their rent between April 1 and 5, compared with 81% in the first week of March and 82% in April 2019, the data show. +What papers did you read (about) that caught you off guard, make you think differently about something you cared about, or solve a problem so creatively you felt privy to a “eureka” moment? +So I've been keeping up with the chaos that followed the *mini* budget in the UK, but while I've been reading about yields rising and implied interest rates and all this business, I haven't seen commentary that accounts for laymen like me to understand what this all means for the Average Joe and how it could affect the average UK consumer. 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Doge Back is their first Presale project with a solid team dedicated to make it successful +It seems to be a consensus among economists that immigration is generally beneficial. + +However, I came across this paper (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.3.83) which argued that removing all restrictions on labor mobility could increase world gdp by roughly 50-150%. + +Is this true? Is this paper reliable? + +On one hand, I'm generally sceptical of claims that big and that grandiose. On the other hand, it seems like a legit paper (and it has over 700 citations) + +Thanks in advance! +All the DD I do (DD I do, haha) always leads me back to Vanguard - lowest cost, higher dividends, and have proven the test of time. Why even bother having 10 etfs in one fund? Seems time consuming - +# 0. Preface + +Welcome. WELCOME. More patterns. More dates (T+21 dates). + +I'm not a financial advisor - I don't provide financial advice. Also, you must be pretty nuts to be listening to a Pomeranian. + +I made a post before about the price entering the DANGER ZONE and thought it was above $160. Well, let's revisit that topic because of the interesting price movement we have been getting. + +[Somebody. PLEASE call Kenny. Marge? You there?](https://preview.redd.it/9qtq30dyyc471.png?width=1556&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b90f2fc1155023373ec3c79ab08a03cba9d1c01) + +**TLDR: Danger Zone part 2** + +* **The price floor continues to rise each T+21 cycle.** +* **Price goes on a Crabby Move 🦀on normal T+21 dates - floor rises about $30 each time.** +* **Price goes on a Parabolic Move 🚀between T+21 dates where major options come into play (January 15, April 16, July 16) - floor rises about $80 each time.** +* **If the price pattern continues, we should see a $500 floor by January 2022.** +* **Shorts haven't covered. They post unrealized losses and unrealized gains to mess with you.** +* **Retail average base cost is (probably) around $156.57. This is most likely the shorter average short price.** +* **Shorts with an average price of $156.57 would experience 100% loss around $313.14. (Speculative based on data - the real cost could be around $350).** +* **Shorters are terrified of $300+, there's been a big battle here for a few days, hinting that small short positions are about to hit margin call territory (the Danger Zone).** +* **The current price momentum in this gamma is much stronger than the previous two gammas of January and March. They're trying desperately to not let it take off.** +* **The moment one shorter falls, the dominos fall.** +* **I like the stock. I also like you.** 😉 + +# 1. Ever-Rising Price Floor And Projection For The Next Few Cycles + +I've been getting pinged a lot on the next T+21 dates and when the next possible parabolic move could be coming. You might say "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" and generally I would agree. But with T+21 consistently occurring and the parabolic moves so far looking like they were triggered by major option dates, I'd say it's a pretty good bet that past performance will guarantee future results. + +* Every 21 trading days a price spike occurs. Upon each spike, the clock resets to 0, and you count up 21 trading days following. Note that you must ignore holidays. +* Major options dates appear to drive parabolic moves upward. "Major dates" are the only option dates which were available early last year for the 2021 trading year. + * January 15 --> February 24 - March 10; Parabolic Move + * April 16 --> May 25 - June 9; Parabolic Move (Maybe more movement to come) + * July 16 --> August 24 - September 8; Parabolic Move (Projected) + +I will say, the only thing that could make this crap the bed is if [DTC-2021-009](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nvlykp/dtcc2021009_dropped_today_lets_get_some_eyes_on/) somehow affects T+21. Guess we'll have to see what happens on June 24th, the next T+21. I'm thinking it does not, since T+21 is most likely not caused by a DTC rule, and therefore the DTC can't mess with that timeframe. + +On another note, [there is speculation that T+21 is not actually a thing](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nsady3/t21_is_not_actually_a_thing_counter_dd/). It could be due to other mechanics we don't fully understand (T+35 rule or Net Capital for example). **That being said,** we're consistently in this loop so far. So, for the sake of making it easy to understand the loop, I think it's safe to continue calling it T+21. + +Without further ado, here you go! Projection of price movements with T+21 dates labeled for the next few months. + +[Price Projection Based On Rising Floor Every T+21 Days And Major Option Expirations](https://preview.redd.it/qjk1wao6tc471.png?width=1435&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0b15daee115b3bfa3bacce059dd64612aac6dc8) + +It's a bit of a wild chart, so I'm sorry if it's cluttered. I've plotted with curvy lines the parabolic momentum that we see, and the crabby moves we get dependent on the different factors at play that cycle: + +1. February 24 -> March 25: Parabolic Move 🚀 (January 15 options) +2. March 25 -> April 26: Crabby Move 🦀 +3. April 26 -> May 25: Crabby Move 🦀 +4. May 25 -> June 24: Parabolic Move 🚀 (April 16 options) +5. June 24 -> July 26: Crabby Move 🦀 +6. July 26 -> August 24: Crabby Move 🦀 +7. August 24 -> September 8: Parabolic Move 🚀 (July 16 options) + +In the chart, there's blue boxes starting at the floor of the previous cycle and ending at the floor of the next cycle. I drew them very roughly, so the numbers on the graph aren't exact. Sorry. I'm moving a bit quick. + +You'll see that the floor has continued to rise. Although I'm sure many have already seen that from the exponential floor posts! This is expanding on those posts and is a visualization to show that the floor rises every T+21 day cycle. So far, it looks like it rises at a very nice rate, even with the crabby cycles: + +* Crabby Moves 🦀 increase the floor roughly $30 each time. +* Parabolic Moves 🚀 increase the floor roughly $80 each time. + +If the patterns follow, we could see the following price floors. Note that between April 26 and May 25 that the price broke below the previous floor. That's ok and expected. They can short a hell of a lot more shares to try to pull the price down between these cycles, but the floor continues to rise upon each T+21 date, despite this trickery. + +|T+21 Date|Price Floor (Roughly)|$ Increase From Previous|% Increase From Previous (Rounded)| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|February 24|$45|\-|\-| +|March 25|$116|$71|157%| +|April 26|$148|$32|28%| +|May 25|$182|$34|23%| +|June 24|$259|$77|42%| +|July 26 (Projected)|$289|$30|12%| +|August 24 (Projected)|$318|$29|10%| +|September 8 (Projected)|$396|$78|25%| + +After September 8 I don't think we'll see another parabolic move for a while, since that would be due to the last "major option date" of 2021 (July 16 options). The next "major option date" would be for January 2022. But, if the pattern continues, then the price floor would be around $500 by January 2022. Ooftah. Think they could last that long? + +# 2. Short Position "Gains" And "Losses" Are Unrealized. They Averaged Up. + +I want to bring your attention to another matter that has popped up a lot, and there's a lot of celebration around it. The articles about short sellers "losing" billions of dollars in short positions on meme stocks. Horray!!! Shorts are bleeding money! Right? I don't think so. They're bleeding, but not for this reason. + +[https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2021\/06\/03\/short-sellers-lose-almost-5-billion-in-one-day-on-meme-stocks.html#:\~:text=CNBC's&#37;20Kristina&#37;20Partsinevelos&#37;20reports&#37;20on,investors&#37;20push&#37;20the&#37;20names&#37;20higher.](https://preview.redd.it/kofqhc17vc471.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=f33807074f7ea49bb10549e9cc4172ea0c12a02e) + +I've always thought these articles being posted were interesting.... almost as if they wanted to convey that the shorters "covered". (A few small shorters, like new retail shorters, might have covered. But not the big ones). + +Hint hint. They haven't covered. They do not plan to cover. The margin call Thanos snap when they get liquidated will finally make them cover. + +[https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/wallstreetbets\/comments\/lawubt\/hey\_everyone\_its\_mark\_cuban\_jumping\_on\_to\_do\_an\/](https://preview.redd.it/zykwvr337d471.png?width=866&format=png&auto=webp&s=6dbc94d107f4d096bface007717ca9fbb9fd4860) + +I always look back at the total PUT OI going on an absolute tear in January when they hid SI% and think to myself, "Damn. That's totally ~~not~~ normal." + +Take a look at this. PUT OI spikes to 2e6 OI = **200m shares worth in PUTs.** These PUTs were spread far and wide to many options expiring from February 5 all the way to January 2023. What in the hell? Totally normal hedge move, yup. Totally normal. + +[CALL and PUT OI Comparison; Data from \/u\/yelyah2 ](https://preview.redd.it/zc7xcrch7d471.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c28ec2b8a9f72f0b987c917a05784f1e68b9e5c) + +They're not covering. They're hiding their shorts and trying everything they can to scare you off. + +So in my eyes these articles are all bull. Especially this one from the start of March: + +[https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2021\/03\/03\/melvin-capital-posts-return-of-more-than-20percent-in-february-sources-say.html](https://preview.redd.it/cpp93z94vc471.png?width=1124&format=png&auto=webp&s=369820614b757f66a48575a2b8cabdb233d9b410) + +I remember getting pinged about this article and being told that Melvin won, shorters exited, blah blah blah, that was the FUD back then. + +How could they possibly gain 20% in February after getting obliterated in January? Well... they, and other shorters, must have averaged up their short position price. Anyone who took advantage of the GME peak price in January was able to have a fun time with gains. + +[Short Position Unrealized Gains \/ Losses Based On Opening New Shorts](https://preview.redd.it/jg8yflcpwc471.png?width=1435&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab99e5fe95799b7f65f76293d72366fee57e4591) + +Their overall short position price went up, so they could post that they had returns/gains on that massive downward momentum in February. But these gains are all unrealized. They aren't covering, they're just digging a deeper hole because that's all they can do. + +# 3. Average Retail Buy Price; Average Short Position Price + +It's an absolute WARZONE right now. The price is so desperately trying to go on a run upward. + +Last week I was noticing [how similar this run was to February](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqbera/things_are_shockingly_similar_to_the_february/), and I was predicting that we'd see [another Gamma Neutral spike](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrwp82/gamma_bombs_all_over_the_market_today/) on June 4th. **BUT IT SPIKED UP TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED ON JUNE 2nd**. \[Data courtesy of /u/yelyah2\] + +That was a big, "Wait. What?" moment for me because it implied this gamma was ready to take off much sooner than the previous gamma run of February 24 - March 10. I should have noticed earlier at how much stronger this run was compared to the previous two gammas. Check out this comparison of the price hammers for January, March, and June gamma runs. Big shout out to /u/sharp717 for identifying [the similarities to the January run as well](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nrud2r/price_action_is_shockingly_similar_to_not_only/). + +[Price Momentum Being Contained. January, March, and June Gamma Squeezes](https://preview.redd.it/eyb1v0rldd471.png?width=1434&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a3342786074385bc694fcae316d116af4160946) + +There's huuuuge momentum that they have been trying to contain ever since May 25th. The price has been swinging up and down massively each day in this parabolic cycle🚀. + +Have they succeeded with suppressing the gamma squeeze? I mean, time will tell. June 9th is when I expected it to either start to go parabolic or be flash crashed down. But it's a goddamn battlefield right now! And this parabolic run is much different and stronger than the previous one. I personally think this run isn't over with. Their attacks are weaker every time, and there's so much strength still in this parabolic cycle🚀. + +There's so much ammunition being thrown because it truly is getting close to margin call territory, and they're most likely hurting even more in captial from January 15 and April 16 options expiring. + +Did I say margin call territory? I mean - the DANGER ZONE. Marge, call Kenny. Please. + +Some big brain apes discussed this Webull chart and the implications of it relating to their "Danger Zone price". It truly is a goldmine. With how popular Webull is it's probably safe to use this as a baseline for retail (and indirectly a baseline for shorters). + +[Webull GME Statistics. Average share cost of $156.57](https://preview.redd.it/tyfsbj2cuc471.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8414ca7d6e6866e8d5ba420f79114065e6cc1e3) + +What is this telling us? + +1. Each horizontal bar represents a cluster of cost basis for retail shares. For example you can see a huge cluster between $76.83 and $156.57. There's way more retail that own shares at that price point than anything above $302.56. +2. The red indicates that the shares owned above $302.56 (price point when this screenshot was captured) currently have unrealized losses. "They're in the red" +3. Likewise, the green indicates that the shares owned below $302.56 currently have unrealized gains. "They're in the green". +4. The blue price point of $156.57 is the average ownership price. + +Seems fair. **We can most likely assume that retail's average base cost is around $156.57**. Most retail probably started buying in around December, because that's when the news of a GME short squeeze started to really take off. We can now indirectly say that this is also the average short position price. + +GME was **over 100% shorted** in December: + +* You have to have naked shorts to get over 100% in the first place. +* OBV implies that barely anyone is selling. +* This signifies a liquidity issue where synthetics are created, ever-increasing the SI%. +* Any retail buy was most likely a new short position that was opened or a swap between paper hands and diamond hands. + +Our dear shorties might have an average short position of around $156.57. Give or take a little bit. + +If you have a **long** position that you opened up at $156.57, and the price goes down to $78.28, you'll be down 50%. If it continues down to $39.14, you'll be down 75%. + +If you have a **short** position that you opened up at $156.57, and the price goes up to $234.855, you'll be down 50% on margin. If it continues up to $313.14, you'll be down 100% on margin. BOOM. Marge starts calling. + +Assumptions per a big brain ape who discussed this: + +1. Generally the margin requirements on short positions is 100% cash value of the position + 1. When you hit 100% loss, marge starts to call. Example of $156.57 short hitting $313.14. You need $156.57 posted to cover your margin requirement. +2. WeBull is a large enough broker to likely be considered a representative sample of all GME holders. +3. This is assuming the positions are unlevered - levering would reduce the margin call point. +4. This is assuming additional capital was not raised against the positions \[Such as shill stock tickers pumped and dumped / Crypto / etc\]. + +# 4. Danger Zone Part 2 + +They dun goofed. Their FUD attack today (which we expected) was fruitless. All their tricks have been found out lmao. + +Guess what, Ken? Here's my trick. It's crayons showing the goddamn **Danger Zone** you're entering and so desperately trying to stay out of. + +The new and improved danger zone is based on the average short price of $156.57 which would trigger 100% losses at **$313.14** assuming 100% margin requirements. + +**\[Note: Speculative based on Webull data. This could very well be $350 or higher, but the battle at $300 signals that this is a very rough place for the shorters to be\].** + +[Danger Zone Visualization](https://preview.redd.it/cquh2loutc471.png?width=1437&format=png&auto=webp&s=cefd9b0a8fd5e4287498468ad3388c1a845bcd4d) + +Is this why there's such a huge battle around $300 right now? And why the price is SEVERELY smacked down when it tries to reach above $350? It's probably because this danger zone is when small HedgeFunds / shorters begin to fall, and it's getting so close to closing in the zone. + +When one of the small shorters fall, it becomes a domino effect. Not only would they initiate buy pressure from covering their short positions, but the banks which are connected to the shorters might get upper-cut just enough to [also send the banks defaulting with the ICC](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ngru15/the_flurry_of_rules_before_the_storm_dtc_icc_occ/). + +This would then cascade to all the other shorters under that bank because their swaps with the bank for assets/liabilities to pump their balance sheets would get rug-pulled. Not just that... but everyone else on the brink of defaulting in the entire financial world connected to that bank would start to fall. + +You've all seen the reverse repo market. Things are bad bad BAD in the market. The amount has already reached an all-time high above $500 Billion in a **non-quarter end**. This is abnormal because quarter-ends are usually the time when banks would take advantage of the repo market to adjust their balance sheets. + +>Other than high levels immediately before a quarter-end, these levels of sustained reverse repo activity in excess of $300 Billion have not been seen since the Great Recession. - [Source](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/repo-market-disruptions-in-reverse-6334085/) + +Everyone in the repo market is terrified of the 2008 bomb that wasn't allowed to finish going off. They're most likely [colluding to prop each other up](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nneg7p/european_financial_news_is_reporting_that_hedge/) because of the absolute insanity that could follow. Not just in the stock market. But the repo market, the crypto market, the treasury market, every market potentially. + +[Possible Collusion In Repo Market](https://preview.redd.it/6fw8d1jild471.png?width=775&format=png&auto=webp&s=77e35c7d45e37fa81b0cc17e250dce5c13b4892b) + +But hey, all it takes is that one. + +GME has to close just high enough for everything, **everything**, to come crashing down. +Buterin announced as a 30 under 30 in the "Finance" category: https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30/2018/finance + +As well, [Melonport co-founder Reto Trinkler made the Forbes 30 under 30 (Europe)](https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30-europe/2018/finance) in the same Finance category. + +It's interesting that these two Ethereum entries were recognized in finance and not technology. +60% of the 950 investors surveyed by Bloomberg consider a decrease in the price of [**Bitcoin**](https://swapzone.io/currencies/bitcoin?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=redditnews) **to $10,000 more likely.** + +The remaining 40% predict the recovery to $30,000. The survey shows how **bearish** the investors have become. + +Whose side are you on? + +*Source:* *bloomberg.com* + +https://preview.redd.it/e06f78m8oxa91.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=336d52ceb3e1f51af1cf33a1d47b6f13c9e94aa0 +OceanONE is a decentralized exchange built on Mixin Network. In terms of registration, normal decentralized exchanges use the private key which is troublesome to store and keep safe. OceanONE uses the phone number for registration, which is straightforward and convenient. + +https://medium.com/mixinnetwork/mixin-network-announcement-b05d2a942f55 +Hello, as it says on the tin I was curious about this issue. This may be better askhistorians material but I thought I'd try here since I couldn't find much in the search bar. + +This is mainly in response to the myth (not speaking to its truth factor) that since the 50s and 60s, union membership has collapsed resulting in skyrocketing inequality. + +Resources would be much appreciated too. +This is going to be a very slow market for premium sellers that know what they're doing. There's no volatility in nearly anything worth entering. I see people reaching, like really hard. My face is now inverted from the cringe of reading the thread on selling 3 year $240 spy puts. Absolute fucking brilliance, delivered to you, yes you, right on your very own home computer screen or handheld device. I mean really, we should be paying these guys for these strokes of genius. Meanwhile, OP is getting counseled by a supposed 35-year futures veteran on how he should lever up the $240 SPY contract in the /MES market for the absolute maximum faceripping experience. + +Someone just fucking kill me. This place sucks. I hate all of you. + +That's it. +Assuming I'm not in the USA, and in a country with no income taxes, and with monthly spendings of roughly $1000, and a monthly income of $1700, in my early 20s, how much should I theoretically invest, assuming perfect conditions, to obtain $1000 per month by the age of 30? + +The calculators I'm using shows that I'm barely making any money after 10 years. Clearly I'm doing something wrong. + +Some guidance or links would be appreciated! +I'm just wondering why people think CAT may be overvalued at a PE in the 20s if they think that. + +Are industrials supposed to have a pe under 20? + +Would 200 be a good entry into CAT for a long term position? I would only buy 2 shares or so at a time. Dca in. + +Cramer is always pumping CAT. + +My other industrial plays are UNP and ODFL. + +I heard CAT may do well this year especially? +So, twelve days ago, my great-grandma had a stroke. My grandmother, my legal caregiver, went to the local hospital (a ripe two hour drive away) and has stayed there ever since to ensure that the doctors don't take her mom off life support. My aunt, my other caregiver, and her kids went with her. + +So long story short, I'm home alone. I've been home alone for over ten days and have had to take care of the family's two sheep, two goats, five dogs, three cats, six large birds, dozens of chickens/ducks/quails/guineas, two horses, and a rabbit to boot + +The people taking care of me don't know when they'll be home. They're not gonna let the doctors let my grandma die so they're gonna stay there until she dies naturally or recovers, which could be months. I've expressed my concerns through text and have only been met with "I don't knows" and the like. They've come home twice (for a couple hours) just to check on things but aren't making money themselves so they haven't been able to help. + +I'm basically taking care of a house and all these animals alone at 17. + +I'm not sure what to do. Eventually bills will start popping up and the animal are already low on food. + +I have a weekly shift at McDonalds to fund myself, but in the area I live, the bus to town runs very rarely so taking full time hours isn't an easy solution. + +I go to school as well since a school bus goes through my area. (though I'd be willing to drop out if needed) + +TL;DR: Fending for myself, as well as dozens of farm animals, for an indeterminate I make almost no money and live in a rural area. + +**EDIT:** Thank you for your replies, I'll read them all and respond when I'm out of school in a couple hours! + +**UPDATE:** Thank you all for replying, I'll try to get through as many as I can but I honestly did not expect this to blow up like it did. Anyway, I talked to my family and while they're not returning home, my aunt has come back with cat and dog food so the animals won't starve for now. She says she doesn't know how much longer they will be gone but don't anticipate it being months like they originally thought. I'm going off her words here. I also talked to my manager and am getting three evening shifts this week over my usual weekly one, so I'm not gonna be completely broke. The bus rarely comes through but I'm fine killing time in town if it means more money coming in. I won't drop out of school either. I was just panicked and assumed I'd have to work full time. I'll update more as events unfold +Buffet recently said at the BKR annual meeting that Bitcoin is likely to go to zero and he wouldn’t pay $25 for all the supply of it. I completely get being against btc and thinking it’ll go down significantly in value. I understand that the crypto craze is a product of US monetary policy creating high market liquidity and unnaturally low interest rates, and I personally think it’ll go down significantly but I can’t understand why he thinks it will go to zero. Can someone explain that? The only rationale I could think of is every government banning it. +By some measures (like the PPP) China has already surpassed the American economy and with its record growth even with a pandemic it seems that China will outpace the United States even with GDP nominal. + +Does the United States just accept this as inevitable? Whether yes or no, can the United States maintain its economic hegemony? +https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/blackrock-has-started-to-dabble-in-bitcoin-says-rick-rieder.html + +BlackRock’s Rick Rieder told CNBC on Wednesday the world’s largest asset manager has begun entering the bitcoin space. + +The remarks from Rieder, who is BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, came on the same day bitcoin broke above $51,000 for the first time. + +“Today the volatility of it is extraordinary, but listen, people are looking for storehouses of value,” Rieder said on “Squawk Box.” “People are looking for places that could appreciate under the assumption that inflation moves higher and that debts are building, so we’ve started to dabble a bit into it.” + +In January, BlackRock added bitcoin futures as an potential investment for two of its funds, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The funds are BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities and BlackRock Global Allocation Fund. + +A number of other financial institutions, such as BNY Mellon and Mastercard, have made entrances into the crypto space in recent days. BNY Mellon, the nation’s oldest bank, will launch a digital assets unit later this year, while Mastercard intends to support certain cryptocurrencies on its formal network. + +Electric vehicle maker Tesla also announced last week it bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin using cash on its balance sheet and intends to begin accepting the digital coin as payment for its products. + +The price of bitcoin has risen more than 70% this year, adding to a major rally that began in the fall. “My sense is the technology has evolved and the regulation has evolved to the point where a number of people find it should be part of the portfolio, so that’s what’s driving the price up,” Rieder said. + +Despite bitcoin’s growing respectability as an asset class, Rieder said Wednesday that how much exposure an investor should have “depends on what the rest of your portfolio looks like.” + +“We’re holding a lot more cash than we’ve held historically,” he said. “It’s because duration doesn’t work, interest rates don’t work as a hedge and so diversifying into other assets makes some sense. Holding some portion of what you hold in cash in things like crypto seems to make some sense to me, but I wouldn’t espouse a certain allocation or target holding.” +It's been about 12 years that I'm a client and I keep telling myself, oh maybe next year they will release a good NATIVE mobile app. + +Now it's 2021 and we are still forced to use a web wrapped non-native mobile app that is slow and unresponsive. + +Anyone else frustrated about this? + +As a digital products designer, I find it incredibly disturbing that that a broker like them wouldn't invest heavily in native app development (like everyone else is doing). + +I hope there are some Questrade employees in this sub that can chime in to lend some insight. +Hoy! + +As per the thetagang philosophy, the plan is to sell options and see them loose value over time due to theta decay. There are plenty of other reasons to do it, but the core idea behind the theta play is to let time work for your advantage. + +I'll give a rundown of three approaches, and let you make your own conclusions on what strategy best fits you. + +* Weeklies: selling options expiring within a week, (0-7DTE \[Days To Expiry\]) +* 30-45 DTE: popularized by tastytrade, selling options that expire 1-1.5 month out +* LEAPs: 1 year or longer to expiry; + +**Let's benchmark..** + +I'll compare the following 3 setups here: + +* 6DTE (weekly), Feb 12 expiry +* 41DTE, March 19 expiry +* 349 DTE, Jan 21, 2022 expiry + +And look at 4 (very) different tickers: SPY (high volume, low thrills index fund), AAPL (solid tech company & growth potential), KO (solid non-tech, low thrills) and GME (the meme du jour). + +I will use the 41DTE, \~0.30 delta as our reference for annualized income, where annualized return percentage (ARP) is given by ARP = 365 \* premium / (collateral at stake) / DTE \* 100%. + +**EDIT:** As pointed out by [/u/buzzante](https://www.reddit.com/user/buzzante/), this doesn't take into account compounding interest. The quick premium you get on a shorter DTE can then be repeatedly reinvested, favoring shorter DTEs. On the flip side, selling longer dated DTE gives you more upfront premium that you could already reinvest. I think overall compounding benefits longer DTEs for the same percentage returns (like getting paid upfront for one year vs getting paid in weekly installments), but for sake of simplicity and my sanity, I won't redo the math. + +The idea is, if you can get X% annualized return on a 41DTE option, how would an X% annualized return (in terms of greeks & strike prices) look like for a 6DTE and 349 DTE option. + +To keep things simple, I will only look at CSPs (cash secured puts), no calls, margin plays, hedges, etc, and use the mid of the Ask/Bid spread as our premium price, as quoted on Friday's (Feb 5) close. + +**SPY** (price at close 387.71$) + +41DTE: 375$ strike, 5.87$ premium, ARP = 13.59%, delta \~0.3, **gamma 0.012**, IV 22%, OpenInt 37920 + +So I am looking for a similar ARP for 6DTE and 349DTE options. + +\[..find a premium/(collateral at stake) ratio = ARP \* DTE / 365 / 100..\] + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|375$|5.87$|13.59%|\~0.3|**0.012**|22%|37920| +|6|380$|0.81$|12.96%|\~0.18|**0.030**|15%|15550| +|6|381$|0.925$|14.76%|\~0.20|**0.034**|15%|4593| +|349|**430$**|56.895$|13.83%|\~0.65|**0.005**|34%|<100| + +**AAPL** (price at close 136.76$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|130$|3.60$|24.65%|\~0.3|**0.007**|33%|<100| +|6|132$|0.425$|19.59%|\~0.16|**0.048**|26%|3280| +|6|133$|0.595$|26.99%|\~0.21|**0.059**|26%|4200| +|349|**165$**|38.20$|24.21%|\~0.61|**0.007**|39%|<300| + +**KO** (price at close 49.65$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|47.5$|0.93$|17.43%|\~0.3|**0.076**|27%|8193| +|6|46.0$| 0.085$|11.24%|\~0.07|**0.052**|39%|2659| +|6|46.5$|0.11$|19.59%|\~0.09|**0.066**|36%|1130| +|349|**55$**|8.80$|16.73%|\~0.61|**0.029**|26%|3894| + +**GME** (price at close 63.77$) + +|DTE|Strike|Premium|ARP|Delta|Gamma|IV|OpenInt| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|41|65$|27.15$|371.84%|\~0.296|**0.005**|326%|600| +|6|24$| 3.125$|372.60%|\~0.034|**0.001**|470%|734| + +349DTE: NOT POSSIBLE! For a 370% return, you'd need the premium to be more than 3x the strike; + +**How to interpret this** + +**1)** Selling LEAPs ~~are~~ is a pretty bad deal (in terms of annualized interest). For a comparative return with 41DTE, your strike price is going to be higher than the current stock price. As in, the stock price needs to swing up for the option to expire worthless, as opposed to NOT drop too much which lower DTE. + +**2)** The higher the DTE, the worse the liquidity (bigger spreads, lower open interest, etc). Makes it that much harder to get a good deal. + +**3)** Look at the 6DTE vs 41DTE strike prices (for the same annualized returns): they aren't that much different (except GME.. more about that later). So adjusted for risk, shorter DTE puts are more likely to expire OTM. Or just look at the deltas.. very compelling. + +**4)** The GME conundrum: if you're gonna scalp the IV, go for where it's the highest; what's more likely, GME finishing below 21$ in 6 days, or below 38$ in 41 days? (the two break-even points). You could even pick a 6DTE with strike 14$ for a 'meager' 77.6% ARP (that beats selling puts on AAPL or KO). + +**5)** We are safe to conclude that I don't have a life; and if you got this far, neither do you ;) + +**EDIT: Risks, risks, risks** + +Seasoned folks are smart to point out that I didn't get into all the risks shorter DTEs pose. It wouldn't be fair to ignore it, so here's a rundown on what might go wrong: + +* pin risk: it's tempting to let weeklies expire worthless, but after hours price movements after expiration can suddenly turn against you; while this could be avoided if you always close your positions, there's some extra value to be had by trying to see at least some of them expire worthless; +* early assignment: the closer you are to expiration, the more likely it is that this would/could happen with a sudden and violent breach of your strike price; as you are going to have significantly more trades with lower DTEs, this adds some extra risk to the mix that can't be quantified with backtestings; +* **gamma risk**: this is the **biggest one**; this deserves its own post, but here's a solid [writeup](https://steadyoptions.com/articles/why-you-should-not-ignore-negative-gamma-r86/) with pretty charts that does a better job than I ever could; in short, when selling options, you're negatively exposed to gamma; the closer the option to expiration, the higher the gamma, the more the value of the option fluctuates with the underlying stock's movement; a 30 delta 45DTE option will have lower gamma than a 30 delta 7DTE option; I updated my numbers to also include gamma - but I think most people would agree that for the same ARP and underlying stock but different DTEs, a lower delta + lower gamma combo is a better risk-adjusted bet (see GME 41DTE vs 6DTE or KO 41DTE vs 6DTE delta & gamma numbers); in most other cases, shorter DTE plays (for the same normalized ARP) would lower your delta but increase your gamma; it's a trade-off everyone needs to decide for themselves +* **IV risk/gains:** the shorter the DTE, the bigger impact IV movements have on gamma (see [this](https://optionstradingiq.com/gamma-risk-explained/) for pretty charts); with IV dropping, your OTM options can experience a gamma boost, that can slap you in the face; this is somewhat compensated though by premium lowering on average due to the IV drop; but if the stock price moved against you, it becomes that much harder to roll out /manage your losses; + +**EDIT: Back-testing, always** + +The common wisdom is that 45DTE 16-20 delta have been the clear winner in back-testing and has a better risk-adjusted win-rate than any other configuration. Check [spintwig](https://spintwig.com/spy-short-put-45-dte-leveraged-options-backtest/#Prior_Research) and tasty trade video where this the most common conclusion made. + +However, there is no size fits all; 45DTE 16-20 is **NOT** optimal theta play on meme stocks or for earnings plays (in both cases IV will predictably drop), or growth stocks (where buy&hold beats CSP in benchmarks). + +The only way to settle true winrates is by back-testing, but once accounting for active management, early closing, margin management, etc. even back-testing is just a rough estimation. + +I feel it would be irresponsible of me NOT to emphasize the overwhelming amount of evidence/benchmarks in favor of 45DTE 16-20 delta plays - but it's also not an optimal play for every situation, and this shouldn't be a controversial statement :/. + +**Conclusions** + +If it's theta you're after, shorter DTEs have higher returns. Not necessarily higher risk (**EDIT:** yes, likely higher risks, see the part on risks, risks, risks) mind you - if you pick your deltas (**EDIT:** and gammas) carefully. Makes sense, theta works best closest to expiration; a lot can happen in one year to a stock (hit record highs or go bankrupt), much less in one day. **EDIT:** There's this [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/lajwxo/why_theta_gang_recommends_you_roll_options_from/) with pretty graphs that sum it up better than I could. + +Shorter DTEs also require more management and more involvement. Reevaluating your holdings every day (if you're selling weeklies) vs every week (with 30-45DTE) can be demanding, especially with a diversified portfolio. + +And finally, ***you do you***. I think the 30-45DTE philosophy is quite popular with this sub (and selling early when hitting 50% return), but the gains aren't really from theta in those cases (well, a mix of delta and theta), but rather stonks going up. ~~It's a solid, easy strategy, but leaves quite a lot of value on the table.~~ (**EDIT:** or does it.. back-testing results debate this. It's irresponsible of me to make such a categorical statement). + +Agree or disagree, we should probably talk about this. I flaired it as DD, but it's more of a meta-analysis of theta strategy as a whole. + +EDIT2: tables everywhere.. +So I(19) have 100k on my growth account which barely give me any return. I live by myself with a monthly expense of $2,500, I don’t have any retirement account and currently don’t have a job because I want to focus on trade school that I’ll be done in a year. Any suggestions would be much appreciated! Thank you in advance. +I'm coming to a stage of my life where I'd like to try to set up some passive income/investing in assets or something along those lines. + +Can anyone recommend some smart money moves that have worked for them in the recent past? + +Any advice is greatly appreciated. +Sounds insane I get it. But everywhere we turn now the message is “bubble!! We’re at the top of housing prices, look out below!” + + +Hear me out for a minute. + +Rates are rising fast, which should in theory take buyers out of the market which in theory should give listings more days on market driving prices down. + +This is a scenario that is possible. + +But here is my +bull case scenario that I believe to be more likely. + +Imagine if high rates create even lower inventory? For example say you want to sell your home and move to another home. You run the numbers and it makes no sense, your locked in now at 3%! And with low supply you don’t want to go out and hunt for a home. Boom you just hurt the supply problem. + +Low inventory begets even lower inventory, and now with higher rates it spirals down even faster. Sure we should see a bump in inventory spring/summer as always but will be interesting to see if inventory remains flat or even falls in the hot season. + +Ultra low inventory will drive prices up, low inventory in any commodity market is a very strong tail wind that can blast thru most any headwind. Headwinds could be recession/high rates/war etc. Housing is a basic supply/demand commodity. + +I am very bullish on starter homes especially. Homes that are still selling for under replacement cost. And with materials/labor sky rocketing past few years these homes are even more desirable. Builders are not putting out 1000-1500 sqft 3 beds for $200k. The starter home market has no competition, it is a commodity that they will likely never make more of. + +I’m still buying! +I’m here for MOASS, plain and simple. I don’t care much for NFT’s, digital wallets, partnerships, or even Ryan Cohen. Big respect to the guy all the same. + +I’m here to get rich, and fuck over the people that fucked me over back in 2008. I won’t sell a single share until they’ve all been liquidated, and even then, the vast majority of my shares will swim in the infinity pool forever, coz fuck ‘em. + +I’ve seen many posts over the last 18 months talking about how GameStop is going through a massive turn around, and good for them I say, but that’s not why I bought into the company, nor why I’m still here. Truth be told, I would have bought into whatever company is expected to have the most violent and explosive squeeze of all time. It was, and still is, my one and only reason for buying GME. + +I’m not a GameStop fanboy, and there’s no shame in saying that. GME is a battleground stock for me, nothing more, nothing less. Once this is over, I’ll be taking my money out of the American markets, never to be seen again. + +And fuck you Ken 🚀🚀🚀🚀 +I love DFV's unique angle on value investing a lot and want to learn more about value investing as a strategy. In a market where value investing seems to be losing traction (compared to wild, non-fundamental based speculations) are there any Youtubers I can focus on to learn more about this investment tradition? +I'll start: when leaving a company, and if you were enrolled into its group health insurance (paying user; free ones don't apply), you can talk to the insurer and convert/merge it into an individual policy to take advantage of the PED years accrued there. Here's a [bit more information](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/insure/how-an-employee-can-migrate-from-group-to-individual-health-insurance-policy/articleshow/65967413.cms?from=mdr) on ET. +I first saw this theory in a post by u/-einfachman- and this is my adaptation. + +# + +# Introduction + +&#x200B; + +When you short a stock, you need assets to maintain that position. If the price of that stock goes up, the person you borrowed it from needs to know that you’re still good to buy that stock back and return it. + +&#x200B; + +For example if I short a stock at $100 and it goes up to $150, I need to prove that I have $50 in assets I can sell to cover the short with. + +&#x200B; + +I also need to pay a borrow fee for the service the lender is offering me. + +&#x200B; + +For example if I short a stock at $100 on a 1% borrow fee and it stays at $100 for the next year, I now need an additional $1 to maintain my position. This is the classic theory behind “we can stay retarded longer than they can stay solvent”. + +&#x200B; + +I can also plot this decay mathematically. + +&#x200B; + +A = P(1 + rt) + +A = 100 (1 + (0.01 \* 1)) + +A = $101 + +\*A=Net Liability, P=Initial Short Price, r=Rate of Growth/Decay, t=Time + +&#x200B; + +And from this we know that the maintenance margin has increased $101 - 100 = $1. So I need an additional $1 in assets to keep my position open. + +&#x200B; + +# Critical Margin Theory + +&#x200B; + +u/-einfachman- has theorized that the resistance we have seen on GameStop over the last 1.5 years is a safe guard against margin calls. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/a1euckdd52491.png?width=2038&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ff43275b5f02febd2355c31e2717947093bf18e + +&#x200B; + +There’s just one thing. + +&#x200B; + +This line isn’t going down with the borrow rate. Not even close. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tx4yl7cf52491.png?width=1618&format=png&auto=webp&s=e377a0476fe21416d15a26d2fb2b596e273de99c + +&#x200B; + +I’m going to work with 2 dates for this next section (circled above) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ixi1zneh52491.png?width=942&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f44dde13f20d4fcb6038f4c280db7332afa9948 + +&#x200B; + +The time between these 2 points is 204 trading days or 294 calendar days. 294 days over the 365.25 days in a calendar year is 0.80. Or 294 days is 80% of a calendar year. + +&#x200B; + +So back to the borrow equation. + +&#x200B; + +A = P(1 + rt) + +A = 344.66 (1 + (0.01 \* 0.8)) + +A = $347.42 + +&#x200B; + +And from that we know that the maintenance margin has increased $347.42 - $344.66 = $2.76. + +&#x200B; + +Um… Hey u/scienceisexy, if the maintenance margin only increased $2.76 per share over that period why did we bounce off resistance at $199.41? + +&#x200B; + +Great question u/scienceisexy. + +&#x200B; + +I’m about to speculate, but I’m speculating based on real data so stick with me. + +&#x200B; + +If the Critical Margin theory is true - that is to say that the bounces off the blue line highlighted above are HFs trying to save their ass - the critical margin is deteriorating WAY faster than the borrow rate. + +&#x200B; + +How much faster? This is the cool part. I’m going to use the same dates as above. + +&#x200B; + +A = P(1 + rt) + +*\*\*quick algebras* + +r = ((A/P) -1)/t + +r = ((199.41/344.66)-1)/0.8 + +r = -0.53 + +&#x200B; + +Holy shit. So the maintenance margin is going up 53% every year… + +&#x200B; + +But hold onto your seats because there’s a catch. The stock price from June 2021 -> March 2022 went down. -42.5% from peak to peak to be exact. So someone made 42.5% on their short position but the maintenance margin is STILL up 53%. I want to hammer this home. The 53% increase in maintenance margin INCLUDES the 42.5% profit that was made. That means the actual rate of decay on the critical margin line is 95.5%. + +&#x200B; + +I’m going to round up to 100% and you’ll see why in a second. + +&#x200B; + +And just one more time because this is crucial. I short a stock at $100 on a 100% borrow rate. The stock goes to $50. I have made +$50 from my short position but lost -$100 due to the borrow fee. So I’m $50 closer to being margin called. This is why the blue line has a negative slope. + +&#x200B; + +The average borrow rate of GME is 1% over that period, but the critical margin is increasing as if the borrow rate was 100% (95.5% to be exact). That doesn’t make sense. Is there some sort of financial tool out there that would give you 100x leverage on a stock? Hmm… + +&#x200B; + +Well, option contracts get sold in groups of 100. What a coincidence. + +&#x200B; + +Back to our $100 stock example - let’s say that instead of borrowing and selling a stock, I borrow an ITM Put contract, which gives me the ability to sell 100 shares at a given strike price. I exercise it, and sell those shares. + +&#x200B; + +100 shares in a contract, 1% borrow fee per share. Well look at that, 1% \* 100 is 100%… + +&#x200B; + +It might not be Puts but some other financial tool like swaps. But the leverage is undeniable. + +&#x200B; + +Today, the critical margin is at $169.10 (nice). One +30% day and hedges are potentially fuk. There’s more research to be done here and maybe a way to size the real short position - I will post updates accordingly. + +&#x200B; + +tldr: Critical Margin Theory says that the maintenance margin for GME shorts is increasing at a crazy high pace. From circle 1 to circle 2; the price at which someone will be margin called (the blue line) has gone down 53%. I.e. where I would have been margin called at $344 now I'm margin called at $199. Which is crazy because I made money on my short position. If I exclude that profit the real decay is close to 100%. The only way I can see this being possible is if shorts are leveraged through options. + +&#x200B; + Token holders will be able to spend their tokens to rent real estates by sending tokens to corresponding real estate contract. The contract will be updated accordingly and the whole rent process will be as transparent as it should be. Contracts will also allow integrations with IoT and allow plug and play smart house experience. The blockchain provides the most reliable system for transferring funds. The fact that the data remains saved in an immutable distributed data store means that users can be rest assured that their data cannot be tampered with, payment flows can be optimized, and ultimately the overall rental experience can be improved. + +&#x200B; + +[https://elementsestates.io/](https://elementsestates.io/) +Before replying I urge everyone to read this post from a year ago... + +"When is $1,000 per ETH realistic?" + +https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/5t6097/when_is_1000_per_eth_realistic + +Everyone was terribly wrong, so this should be something fun to look back at in a year. + +My prediction is that ETH will hit $10k this year with a possible mania spike to $20k like what happened with Bitcoin last year. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7wrzfh/challenge_lets_collectively_predict_the_eth_price/du2vg0k/ + +Ethereum is not a company and should instead be compared to other commodities like gold which is currently an 8 trillion marketcap. + +ETH wallets are growing exponentially and $1-2 trillion in value is nothing. +These guys were running a massive insider scheme on CNBC awaaz, recommending stocks to viewers after taking positions, which was investigated and exposed. + + +The trades executed in the trading accounts of Ms. Jaya Hemant Ghai and Ms. Shyam Mohini Ghai were analysed and it is observed prima facie, that there is a repeatedpattern of buying shares in the trading accounts of Ms. Jaya Hemant Ghai and Ms. Shyam Mohini Ghai on the previous day to the buy recommendations made on the Show co-hosted by Mr. Hemant Ghai and selling the same immediately after the said buy recommendations. Thus, prima facie BTST trades were executed in the trading accounts of Ms. Jaya Hemant Ghai and Ms. Shyam Mohini Ghai synchronised with the recommendations given on the Show co-hosted by Mr. Hemant Ghai. + + +> It is observed from the material available on record that buy recommendation for the scrip of Aptech Ltd. was given on the Show co-hosted by Mr. Hemant Ghai on January 9, 2020 + +> On January 8, 2020, orders were executed in the trading account of Ms. Jaya Hemant Ghai to buy 52,000 shares of Aptech Ltd.and thereafter the entire 52,000 shares were sold on January 9, 2020 i.e., the buy recommendation, between 9:15:08 am and 9:22:20 am. + +SEBI has proceeded to interim ban them and fine them. + +https://www.sebi.gov.in/enforcement/orders/jan-2021/interim-order-dated-january-13-2021-in-the-matter-of-cnbc-awaaz-stock-20-20-show-co-hosted-by-mr-hemant-ghai_48743.html +“If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” - Warren Buffett. + + + +Warren Buffett is my favorite investor (surprising in this subreddit I know) and I love learning from him. This quote got me to thinking as to how he would be able to achieve that. The point of this post is to share my thoughts and to listen to your ideas in regards to achieving something similar to the above quote. + + +The 1-10 million fund size makes it quite clear that the biggest advantage will come from micro/small cap companies. These companies are typically avoided by smart/big money as they're too small to make a meaningful difference in their performance as their funds are too large which gives way for bigger discounts on the market. Any other ideas? Cheers +As a response to the guy who got margin called yesterday: +1. If you’re leveraged to the tits and all your capital is tied up in trades +2. If your account can’t stomach the max loss of a position, + +You honestly deserve to lose it all. Maybe I’m just insanely conservative, but I always have at least 1/3 in cash to manage positions that go against me. If you blow up your account that fast and that easily in thetagang, you’re just doing an overcomplicated version of WSB with less upside. So if you think about it, you’re actually a worse trader than anyone over at WSB. +Fucking learn risk management, it’s not that hard. +How’d u do it? +When did you start? +How long did it take? +What’s the current value of your portfolio? +And if you are retired what do you do now since you no longer need to work? +Hi guys, + +So apparently Chinese banks are preventing people in China from withdrawing their money. + +My question is why? + +Even if banks there lacked the liquidity, wouldn’t they be able to just inject liquidity from their central bank as they have monetary sovereignty (rely on their own currency they print at the central bank rather than an imperial currency)? + +Thanks. + +Note: I’m not interested in the cop out answer of oh well they’re an authoritarian communist regime or something like that, I’d like an economic argument not a political one. +I've heard a lot of people say that we need to go back to gold-backed currency because fiat money "has no real value and is just backed by men with guns". + + +But gold has no "real value" either! You can't eat or drink it, and it can't really be used in any useful way. How would switching to the gold standard be any less arbitrary? What advantages would it bring and why would it be better than fiat? + +I picked these two automakers but I could have picked others. Does the market cap ever have any sort of trend in reflecting the size of a company? Does this market cap indicate some kind of inflated value for Tesla? Yes I know the stock price is based on the anticipated or perceived value of a company but is there any long term limitations to this huge discrepancy? +So, I like to stay up on current events and lately Im noticing all of my feeds (especially youtube) have headlines that amount to "China's Economy is going crash any day now!" + +Now, I get the basics of the economic crsis unfolding in china, but what Im trying to understand is if the sitiation is as dire as these (mostly youtubers) make it out to be. + +I feel like since I am American, Im likely to see more content that has a pro-western bias to it, but the amount of content painting a dark cloud over China's economy seems too significant not to wonder if its really true. + +So what say you, big brain, reddit economists? Is Chinas economy really on the verge of collapse, or is this just sensationalist clickbait that Im consuming? +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +For context: amid all this stuff about the war in Ukraine, the subject of Alaska has been brought up. Specifically, the fact that the United States purchased the territory from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million. + +The question is, after adjusting for inflation, how much has the value of Alaska appreciated and how does it look as an investment? But what I realize is I don't know how to answer that question without being able to figure out the current fair market value of the state. +I am curious what stocks people think are still grossly overvalued even with the rout in overvalued stocks. I will go first. + +1.) RIVN - 25B + +2.) TSLA - 686B + +3.) DASH - 23B +My [post](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/jwesme/how_to_see_if_a_bank_is_risky_for_placing_your/) on how to judge a bank's health was well received by this sub. So I followed it up with a [ranking of all Schedule commercial banks](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/k0q2pb/indian_private_banks_health_scorecard/) based on their Q2 results (i.e.e till September 30, 2020). + +I've updated it after all banks released their Q3 results. Here is where all banks stand: + +In case you don't understand the terms used, please do refer to my guide on [reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/jwesme/how_to_see_if_a_bank_is_risky_for_placing_your/) + +&#x200B; + +| Bank Name | Score | Comment | +|:-|:-|:-| +| Axis Bank Ltd | 4.00| Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Catholic Syrian Bank Ltd | 4.00| Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| City Union Bank Ltd | 4.00| Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Development Credit Bank | 4.00| Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Dhanlaxmi Bank Ltd | 4.00| Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Federal Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| HDFC Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| ICICI Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Karnataka Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Karur Vyasa Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Nainital Bank Ltd | 3.75 | Made losses in FY2020. If RoA becomes negative in FY21 it will be in RT1 | +| RBL Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| South Indian Bank Ltd | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Yes Bank Ltd | 3.75 | Made losses in FY2020. If RoA becomes negative in FY21 it will be in RT1 | +| Bandhan Bank | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| IDFC First Bank Ltd | 3.50 | RT1 - Negative RoA for 2 consecutive years. However, it has been profitable for the operations till December 31, 2020 of FY2021 | +| IDBI Bank Ltd | 3.00 | RT3 - Negative RoA for 4 consecutive years | +| State Bank of India | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Bank of Baroda | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Bank of India | 2.00 | RT3 - breach in Leverage ratio and negative RoA for 4 consecutive years | +| Bank of Maharashtra | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Canara Bank | 3.75 | Made losses in FY2020 due to fraud provisioning. However, they have done well for the nine-month period of FY2021 till 31.12.2020| +| Central Bank of India | 3.00 | RT3 - Negative RoA for 4 consecutive years. Breaches NNPA parameter as well if Covid NPA norm relaxation is removed | +| Indian Bank | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results | +| Punjab & Sind Bank | 3.25 | RT2 - Negative RoA for 3 consecutive years. Further, It has made losses this year too, having posted net loss for the operations till December 31, 2020 | +| Union Bank of India | 3.25 | RT2 - Negative RoA for 3 consecutive years. However, it has posted net profit for the current year for the operations till December 31, 2020 | +| IndusInd Bank | 4.00 | Meets all RBI PCA parameters as per the latest available results| + +&#x200B; + +### Some Notes + +&#x200B; + +* [SBI, HDFC and ICICI are the safest banks by virtue of being declared too big to fail by RBI.](https://indianexpress.com/article/business/banking-and-finance/too-big-to-fail-list-sbi-icici-bank-hdfc-bank-remain-7153597/) It doesn't hurt that they are also financially healthy as well. +* Some banks had not made certain data available as of 31.12.2020 yet. As it is not possible to make a comparison without that data, I have not scored them. If it is updated after this is published, please do let me know and I'll update them. I am listing the removed ones as well as other notes below. +* Jammu & Kashmir Bank, Tamilnadu Mercantile Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Punjab National Bank, and UCO have not made their BASEL III disclosures (including leverage ratio) available yet for Q3 FY2021. +* Due to a case filed by one Mr. Gajendra Sharma in the supreme court, the Govt has asked the borrowers who were not declared as NPA till August 2020 are not to be declared as NPA till further orders. However, in the spirit of transparency, most banks have voluntarily disclosed what their actual NPA numbers would be (if this relaxation was not given) in their results. +* The banks that have not disclosed them are City Union Bank, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Federal Bank, Jammu & Kashmir Bank, Karnataka Bank, Nainital Bank, South Indian Bank, Tamilnadu Mercantile Bank, Yes Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Punjab & Sind Bank & UCO Bank. +* When most banks have declared their true NPA numbers (and seem to be doing well in collecting their loan dues despite the pandemic), I consider it unfortunate that the above banks have instead chosen not to reveal their true numbers to their investors. +* Central Bank of India has declared its actual NPA numbers. If the same is considered for scoring, then they would breach the Net NPA parameter as well and is a cause for concern as they already fall under risk threshold 3 (RT3) + +Despite the popular request, I have left out foreign banks and small finance banks for this quarter as it is difficult to get hold of their data. + +I've posted the excel sheet containing the raw data and the ranking [in a better format](https://sikkanam.com/indian-banks-health-scorecard/) on my site. + +Pls do share this info with any friends/family who might benefit from this info. + +Happy to answer any questions in the comments :) + +&#x200B; + +**Disclaimer:** This guide is not fool-proof. This guide is meant to educate and is not meant to be an equity investment guide. I will not be held responsible for any mistakes/ losses incurred by you. + +**Disclosure:** I am a branch manager at ICICI. + +Edit: Updated IndusInd's score in the list after u/rachit05 found the missing data for me. +What value do Real Estate agents (or Realtors) really provide? In today's day and age, a customer is able to find properties and home sellers all on their own. Home sellers are able to put their homes on sites like Redfin and Zillow and connect with buyers. Buyers and sellers can leverage social media to connect with one another. Google can answer just about any question that used to be answered by a Real Estate Agent. And the MLS...what value is the MLS adding in this new world of Zillow, Redfin, social media and everything else? + +I have no partiality to any answer. +I'll start: when leaving a company, and if you were enrolled into its group health insurance (paying user; free ones don't apply), you can talk to the insurer and convert/merge it into an individual policy to take advantage of the PED years accrued there. Here's a [bit more information](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/insure/how-an-employee-can-migrate-from-group-to-individual-health-insurance-policy/articleshow/65967413.cms?from=mdr) on ET. +I'm trying to get as many eyes on this as possible. I haven't had much luck so far, and I keep seeing posts make the front page that are making big claims about short positions and Sept. 28th, including claims that shorts must cover or close by that date (for which I have found zero evidence). + +I did my own DD on the matter, which can be found [here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/phujc2/introducing_the_expert_market_otc_market_groups/) + +&#x200B; + +A ton of long-dead OTC stocks have come back to life recently and it has me jacked, as I firmly believe the price action is an indicator that they are tied to GME. But I think there is some sneaky business in the works, and efforts are being made to suppress information. As far as I can tell, these stocks could be moved off the OTC market and begin trading on the private broker-dealer network called the "Expert Market", and this could be happening in a few weeks. + +This market is by design not accessible to retail investors and the general public. + +Why? Because the SEC has decided that certain OTC stocks are too dangerous for retail investors, and we must be protected from fraud and manipulation. ^(LOL) + +No longer will retail or the general public be able to see prices for securities moved to this market, nor will retail investors be able to engage in trading on this market. **If our reanimated OTC stocks get moved to this "Expert Market" it will hide valuable data, as we will no longer be able to see what is happening with the price, volume, etc.** + +&#x200B; + +Don't believe me? Here are the highlights from my DD: + +[The website of the company who operates the broker-dealer network](https://blog.otcmarkets.com/2021/03/25/understanding-the-expert-market/) <-- They tell you straight up that many stocks will be moving to this private network, and they state that *"Quotations* (prices) *in Expert Market securities are restricted from public viewing. Only broker-dealers and professional or sophisticated investors are permitted to view quotations in Expert Market securities."* + +[The SEC filing itself, this is the primary source](https://www.sec.gov/rules/exorders/2020/34-90769.pdf) <-- This filing confirms the claim above, and outlines what securities will be moved to the private network, which includes: securities with outdated financial statements, including shell companies, as well as SECURITIES FOR COMPANIES THAT ARE UNDERGOING CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY PROCEEDINGS. + +Of course there's nuance and exceptions to the requirements, and not every security will be moved, but I'm trying to keep this brief. If you want to know more then read [this analysis by Hamilton and Associates Law Group](https://www.securitieslawyer101.com/2021/rule-15c2-11-compliance-deadline-draws-near/) which gives you an overview of the situation. Its lengthy and dense but it is informative as hell. + +&#x200B; + +For the smooth-brains and casual lurkers reading this, my intention with this post is to manage your expectations for Sept.28th. + +For the wrinkle-brains reading this, please scrutinize my DD (link at the top). I need more people to look into this, as I feel this is very important given the relevance of our OTC zombie stocks to the abusive naked-shorting of GME. + +If you are currently doing your own DD on OTC stocks, consider making a back-up of data on OTC stocks, as I believe it will become much harder to access in the near future. + +&#x200B; + +In closing, I'm jacked about the data we are getting from the OTC market, and I fear that incoming changes are attempting to suppress important information, much like [the CFTC's recent decision to suspend reporting requirement for swap dealers](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8422-21). I need more wrinkle-brains to look into this to either confirm or deny what I have found. + +&#x200B; + +Until then, continue being skeptical, and HODL. +Mods. FatFIRE community. + +I’m going to be borderline cruel and candid with my thoughts in this post. + +In October 2019 this sub had 50k subscribers. Today it has over 160k. Most of those newcomers are nowhere near FatFIRE and clearly not on their way there. Most of them will also never ever reach FatFIRE in their lives, sans winning a lottery. It’s time to talk about the state of the sub (yet again). + +Why is the influx of newcomers bad for the sub: + +* They change the course of the discussion +* Worthless contributions +* Ascribing more importance to posts/ideas through up/downvotes that are clearly anti-fatFire +* Increase in LARPing + +The speed at which the discussion on this sub has deteriorated in the past 6 months is absolutely staggering to me. + +I do not care to hear from someone making 50k or 100k. I simply don’t. They live on a different plane, have vastly different needs and budgets. I don’t care if they aspire to be fatFired, all people dream of wealth. But this is not a place for them, they have r/fire and r/chubbyfire at their disposal. + +**Examples** of troubling comments/posts that received support here but have no place on fatFire: + +* [After first 2-3 millions, a paid off home and a good car, there is no difference In qualify of life between you and Jeff Bezos](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/mkzt1f/i_have_a_secret_to_share_shhhhh/) – patently false and written by someone who doesn’t understand the purchasing power of 100M, let alone billions. Commenters pointed out why. +* [I don't have enough money to retire so I'll have to get a job \[and may be\] working at age 65](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/lmcktr/fatfire_is_for_suckers_i_decided_to_file_live/). But sure, [FatFIRE is for suckers](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/lmcktr/fatfire_is_for_suckers_i_decided_to_file_live/)! – please tell me how anyone on the fatFire path would upvote this. Yet with 1.9k upvotes this is one of the top threads from last year +* [I absolutely hate it when people post and others respond "you aren't 'fat' enough to be fatFIRE, go post somewhere else. The person making that post may have been saving every penny they have earned for 30 years.](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ll2u8y/state_of_the_sub/gnp6dgg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) – classic example of how the subs dilution turns this sub into another generic “room for everyone” FIRE sub. Plenty of other subreddits focused on normal FIRE but no, we have to re-fit this sub to everyone who saved for 30 years and was only able to put aside a million. + +I can post loads of other examples, but in short, we need more posts like this [frank AMA from a wealth advisor](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/mhxhsq/ama_i_am_a_wealth_advisor_to_high_net_worth/) and much less posts about reaching [400k](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/k8jkep/just_hit_400k_25_m_380k/) or [1M](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/l2i0ke/cant_sleep_became_a_millionaire_yesterday/) milestones. + +My suggestions, and I hope fatFire folks will add more: + +1. **Bans**. This is of the utmost importance. + +* · I firmly believe this sub will be lost unless we start not only removing content that’s not fatFire-related but also makes it clear such content is unwelcome here. +* · Examples from actual comments: “I’m only a student but..”, “In my early 30s with 1.5M NW, half of which is in the house we inherited..”, “Lurker but not close to fatFire, I think…” +* · All of the above should result in a ban, I’d prefer permanent but at least temporary would be a great start + +**2.** **Stop with ‘bending the rules’ for popular posts.** + +* · It creates a perpetual cycle where this sub upvotes and then creates more off-topic threads +* · Don’t lock them. Remove them, and ban offenders (temporarily or permanently) + +**3.** **Report, report, report.** + +* Mods have been doing a terrific job guys. But it’s also on us to report stuff that’s clearly anti-fatFIRE or irrelevant. + +Partially inspired by [this old dog here](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/mpg76p/on_the_internet_nobody_knows_youre_a_dog/). + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: some prime examples of comments from people nowhere near FIRE who get tons of upvotes here because I am not fat enough in their opinion to comment on the state of the sub: + +* u/headpsu: "I drive a used Toyota, live in a fixer-upper I’m slowly renovating myself" in Pittsburgh. Funny this person would talk about who is allowed to comment while openly admitting he's "[not fat yet](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/m85uvg/when_shall_i_fatfire/grg0x7a?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)" himself. +* u/gilglou is a student living with her parents: "[I’ve considered myself a functional stoner for years... For the past few weeks I have stayed with my parent’s and quit cold Turkey](https://www.reddit.com/r/leaves/comments/ke9urd/i_still_smoke_daily_but_still_find_myself_on_this/gg1eraa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)" + +I would also echo something raised by non-Fat people: lower content quality affects us all equally. Whether you're a lurker or contributor we all benefit most when the discussion focuses on the quality. I'm happy to go back to lurking if that's what it takes to raise the bar of the discussion and exclude people below a certain NW number, etc. +I'm not going to tell any of you to get in on that stuff and buy a shorted stock. What I am instead going to tell you is that this other Reddit community has real potential to drive up prices of securities that you already own and are holding. Remember, it's preferred to hold, but margins of safety apply in the other direction for selling, and if Mr. Market is going to pay you the cash that you expect to get out of the business sooner rather than later, it's not a bad idea to take the offer. If you're a value investor, you'll have other buys lined up to invest that profit and compound over time, or you can repurchase your position after the price crashes again. +China’s state council vows to keep the stock market stable, welcomes long-term institutional investors, will adopt policies to handle developer risks, and supports overseas share listings & good dialogue in ADRs. + +BABA up 25%, Tencent 23%, JD 34%. I had to change these numbers 2 other times because the stocks are risking so fast that within 2 minutes the stock is up an few more % points. +FINAL UPDATE: Computershare has communicated to me that they do NOT have any knowledge of Gamestop releasing an NFT in the form of a dividend. Debunked by Computershare. +If Gamestop confirms in the future I would like Ryan Reynolds to play the part of the CS ape. + +http://imgur.com/gallery/I2ZewJB + + +Lots of speculation on an NFT dividend from Gamestop. I thought it would be a good idea to run that by computershare. + +I used Computershare's general inquiry tool to ask a hypothetical question about dividends and what would happen with an NFT if I were holding as book entry or dividend reinvestment. I wanted to ensure I had total control over the dividend if that were to happen... + + +This is the response I received: + +https://imgur.com/YnvxRWj + +"Dear Sir/Madam: + + + +Thank you for contacting Computershare, the transfer agent for GAMESTOP CORP. We appreciate the opportunity to be of service to you. + +GameStop is still preparing to release a Non-Fungible Token (NFT). The shareholders will be notified once it is declared. + +Should you have other account related questions, please call us at (800) 522 6645 during regular business hours. Please note that any available representative can assist you. + + + +Sincerely, + + + +Computershare Investor Services + + + +Our ref: GME / ######### / ######## + + (removed the reference numbers) + +Attachment: None(1) + + + + + +Online Account Access: Most shareholders can manage their holdings online with free access to Computershare’s Investor Center website. Use this simple tool to quickly and easily update account information, sign up for electronic delivery of documents and more. + +Enroll FREE today at www.computershare.com/investor. + +Got a question? Ask Penny, Computershare’s virtual agent, at https://www-us.computershare.com/Investor/Help. + + +I contacted CS immediately to verify the email address it came from. It was confirmed via phone that it was in fact their email. I've reached out to GameStop investor relation via phone and email without a response. + +Confirmation bias to the max! + +EDIT: I've been sitting on this since yesterday. Didn't want to post because the email addresses seemed off to me. If somone wants to initiate a chat with Penny and confirm for themselves and respond back here go for it. I confirmed over the phone. + +MOD team can message me and I can provide anything need to confirm. The email is legit. +Heres the modmail I sent yesterday +https://i.imgur.com/gUXIzGd.jpg +(fixed link again) + +UPDATE #1: I appreciate all the skepticism and feedback. I want to be clear that my intent with this post was to raise awareness on the surprising content of the email and get some help digging into it. I made an effort to reach out to computershare multiple times as well as several phone calls to Gamestop investor relations including an email. I went as far as messaging Gamestop on a social media platform asking for help to get ahold of someone from the investor relations team before posting here. I'm not advocating for anyone to make any financial decisions based on this. I'm not a financial advisor. The DD previously posted on reddit speaks for itself. If you don't understand any of this, read the DD. + +I'll update if I learn anything new. This can not be confirmed by anyone but Gamestop. Do I believe it? Yes. I like the stock. + +Update #2: Received a call from CS supervisor and reaffirmed the email is real. On their internal update board there is no information on an NFT from Gamestop. The CS liason to GS is making contact to speak about the content in the email. CS is investigating internally who and how this info was sent. It is not a BOT generated response. It had to be sent by whoever reaponded. There is no agent user ID in the notes. I will likely have a follow up from them on Monday. Still trying to make contact with GS investor relations as well. + +Update #3: +Received two more emails from computershare. 1800 yesterday and another 34 minutes later. + +http://imgur.com/gallery/VxpXDLq + +Update #4: Got another email today. I have no idea why they sent another one. I've had zero contact since my last call. I guess they needed to let me know they sent the info in error for a 3rd time.. +CS email #3 https://imgur.com/gallery/6e5qvwV +Disclaimer: My post is mostly speculation, but it is what I am observing. It may not be correct. + +------------------ + +I believe Eos is dumping all of their coins on Bitfinex. If you look at this dump, ether is leading the way and Bitfinex is leading the charge. Bitfinex was trading $30 lower than any other exchange during todays dump (to a low of $492, other exchanges didn't fall below $510). EOS started transferring their Ether to Bitfinex about 3 weeks ago. They have transferred over 1m ether so far. There is only another 200k ether left in their crowdsale wallet. The date at which they transferred their ether to Bitfinex and when we started crashing line up almost perfectly. + +You can see the outgoing TX's from the crowdsale wallet here: https://etherscan.io/txsinternal?zero=false&a=0xd0a6e6c54dbc68db5db3a091b171a77407ff7ccf&valid=true . + +You can see the remaining funds in the crowdsale wallet here: https://etherscan.io/address/0xd0a6e6c54dbc68db5db3a091b171a77407ff7ccf + +You can trace the eth spent (moved) by various ICO's here: https://sanbase-low.santiment.net/projects. EOS has moved 1.38m eth in the last month. All other ICO's combined have moved significantly less. + +------------------ + +Once this wallet is empty the bear will likely be over. 20% of the funds remain in it. They will likely be dumped over the next few days as well. I would expect us to keep dipping for another few days before we bottom out and start heading back up again. Also, there are many users who want to get EOS for their mainnet launch. Once this occurs, ether will likely rebound hard. + +I've been following semiconductors for a while. There are some great growth semiconductor names out there. But I never in my wildest dreams thought it would be possible to buy AMD for less than 30 times earnings. That's it. +In April 2013, The Consumerist awarded EA the title of Worst Company in America for the second year in a row. Just a friendly reminder to ignore the mobs after the recent backslash experienced by EA due to Battlefront 2. Microtransactions are a very profitable business model and will likely continue to be in the future. +I would like to formally apologize. I meant $1500 by end of week. Once we hit ~2400 and overtake BTC, the media coverage will be endless, and the growth will only increase. +It really does seem ludicrous that the share price dropped today after what can only be classified as objectively stellar news. I've been scratching my head trying to figure it out but the excerpt below from Stockhouse, while probably too simplistic, seems reasonable: + +**This is only a theory, but it's the only thing I can think of that makes sense. The stalled stock price and late financials is previously agreed upon coordination between Canaccord and Medivolve from their bought deal in order to allow Canaccord time to accumulate as many shares as possible.** + +**1) April is an awfully long time between last financials and these ones.** + +**2) Canaccord can't sell their shares of .25 from the bought deal for 4 months.** + +**3) An April financial report is just beyond the date Canaccord is allowed to sell.** + +**4) Therefore, there's no immediate rush for Canaccord to make sure the SP is as high as possible before selling (and it doesn't really matter much to Medivolve in the near term either).** + +**5) This allows Canaccord two/three months to try and accumulate as many shares as they can.** + +**6) With a majority/very large position Canaccord can then hold their shares tight, raising the price, and at some point during the run-up, release an official target price of $1 or $2 or whatever, further strengthening the run-up.** + +**7) This might even get the SP above .80 for 10 consecutive trading days which triggers Canaccord's option to purchase warrants for common shares at just .40.** + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +&#x200B; + +Then there's this bit on [https://ceo.ca/medv](https://ceo.ca/medv) that seems to confirm the accumulation part of the theory above and how "someone" might be manipulating the price: + +**We sure pushed a lot of volume today in order to stand still price-wise. I don't see that as bad. Maybe frustrating although I think support at this level appears to be huge. If someone is trying to accumulate they aren't letting drop to far down. Makes for lighter lifting when it's time to push the button for one of the higher floors... Penthouse 2 anyone ?** + +&#x200B; + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +&#x200B; + +Regardless, it seems clear to me that whatever us little guys think or do, the share price isn't going to move significantly until someone more influential than us deems it so. So with that said, I know I have been posting an awful lot about MEDV recently, trying to raise awareness, but it's mostly futile. Until the share price gets into the .70s or higher, I am officially bowing out of any further discussion. +Video here : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQapdnQIxmU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQapdnQIxmU) + +Apparently a family wanted to deposit an FD in ICICI bank, but their RM (relationship manager) convinced them to put it into a tax saving fund (1-2 lakhs per year). He promised 15% rates. + +Then few years later, 20-30 lakhs started being deducted from their bank account. And apparently they were enrolled in over 14 ICICI policies without their consent. + +Or did they just enroll in schemes without realizing the risks? + +Edit - The channel posted a comment a week back - + +12 of the 14 policies offered to this family are traditional plans with tight premium forfeiture clauses, which means that if the family is unable to pay future premiums on these policies, their premiums will be forfeited. Only two policies are ULIPs, which allow them to get their money back after five years of coverage. Icici Pru Cash Advantage, Icici Pru Future Perfect, Icici Pru Assured Savings Insurance Plan, and Icici Pru Guaranteed Savings Insurance Plan are the traditional plans sold to this family. Premium forfeiture is a fact, and it has become the accepted norm. + +Going through the videos, many cases where agents said its just "one time payment" but in reality they have to pay every year. And then when they are unable to pay they face penalties. +Context: [https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801](https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801) + +I also saw a Twitter thread about Blackrock buying most of the houses in the middle-class suburb and carrying out the "Great Reset". What is the Great Reset and what has it got to do with financial institutions bidding up the prices of houses that are supposed to belong to the middle-class and buying them up? What will be the long-term implications of this action? +I have a sort of target of $400000/yr, to be achieved as soon as possible after we resume the bull market (Q2/2023 ?). + +This is my actual projected income: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/xseasyawjsu91.png?width=2440&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6c729237d3752f217e373ceb31a215581f69514 + +https://preview.redd.it/6aqyomd0isu91.png?width=2432&format=png&auto=webp&s=6af186318e41c5145fd1664ddacc97de03efba7a + +https://preview.redd.it/v9wu6et5isu91.png?width=2451&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc00aa8715aa700f2a089385fa523e150c7ab1e3 + +Stocks are down a lot, I suppose around -40%, but thanks to hedging the portfolio returns are positive. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tffj1vmzisu91.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=d72a9e603cb4161a4a443151adfadc4506de6067 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ijb9coy0jsu91.png?width=1247&format=png&auto=webp&s=77fbdd100ddfca92472164c708f183ed44469335 + +Leverage is < 1.0, I am planning to go about 3 after then end of the bear marked. +Ugh I'm so frustrated. I thought we were doing a good thing for ourselves but now I think we are trapped. + +Full backstory: A friend recommended their "financial advisor" to us. We thought "Great! We've been meaning to meet with someone... we have a kid on the way and husband isn't putting away anything towards retirement since starting his new job in August". + +So we set up phone meeting with his friend from Northwestern Mutual. She gives us a call, and we end up speaking with her for over an hour. She asks us lots of questions- what we are looking for (we tell her we want to set up retirement stuff for husband and explore maybe putting some of our 17k in savings into CD's or mutual funds). She asks us questions about when we see ourselves retiring, how "aggressive" we are, etc. All good stuff. We hang up and agree to talk again in a week when she will give us a plan. + +Cut to a week later, we are having a phone meeting with her and she emails me THE PLAN. It's many many pages basically explaining what we have vs. what we will need if we want to retire. But she mostly just talks about how we need more life insurance. "Sure" we think. Maybe we do need more life insurance. She explains that husband needs at least $1mill in life insurance and I need $500k (we both already have $150k policies through work on ourselves). This is news to us but we hear her out. She also spends a ton of time explaining how we need to have disability insurance. Again, we think "maybe we do". So we spend the greater part of an hour and a half talking about life insurance and long term disability insurance. She briefly mentions we should be maxing out my Roth IRA and we could perhaps start one for husband. So we hang up, with plans to talk again in a week and sign some paperwork. + +Over the next week, husband and I really realize that we don't want disability insurance (she quoted us paying like $170/month) and we didn't really feel we needed more life insurance at this time (she had us paying $340/month in permanent and $125/month in term). But we were ok maxing out my Roth at $450/month. We also wanted to explore stocks/bonds/CD's/mutual funds more (like we initially told her). So I sent this all to her in an email before our next meeting. She sends back "OK, great! Sounds good.. talk soon". + +Cut to another phone meeting, where she would talk with us about our updated PLAN. She emails us the NEW PLAN while we are on the phone. LITERALLY NOTHING IS CHANGED. She proceeds to spend the next hour convincing us why we need life insurance and disability insurance. Husband and I are both pushovers and listen to the whole schpeel again. Every time we bring up a reason why we don't feel like we need it, she tells us how we are wrong. I mean, she's the professional, we thought. I still expressed my disinterest in disability insurance but wasn't completely closing the door on life insurance. She kept giving me the guilt trip on "what will your kids have if one of you dies!". By the end of the conversation, I hadn't agreed to anything except to roll over my Roth to Northwestern. She had me give her my bank routing info to get "the paperwork started". She also said she was going to be sending me a bunch of stuff to sign in the next few weeks, but it was just to apply for things... nothing was set in stone. We could just see what the insurance company was going to quote us at, and we still aren't committed to anything. "Ugh fine" I think. She says a small amount might be taken out of my checking, but its just to make sure "the charges are able to go through when we start moving more money to my Roth". + +SO a week or two goes by. And I see a ~$30 charge go through for "disability insurance". WHICH I TOLD HER I DIDN'T WANT!! And I just realize... this doesn't feel good. It doesn't seem right. She's not listening to what we want. She still hasn't addressed out interest in CD/mutual funds/stocks that we initially came to her for. I spend the weekend doing my due diligence- spending a few hours on r/personalfinance, NerdWallet, just googling in general about what husband and I should really be doing. I decide to call the whole thing off with Northwestern. + +It's been a nightmare trying to cut off ties with her. I was kind and courteous through the first couple emails and subsequent texts "We really appreciate your time but have decided to pull out. Again, thank you". + +She is being evasive and manipulative. Telling us we are completely wrong and we still need to work with her. At this point I have just ignored any further communication. It has just been a really bad experience. + + +But THE REAL REASON I still feel like I can't completely ignore her, is that I asked her several times when I should expect to see a refund for the disability insurance THAT I DID NOT WANT AND DID NOT AGREE TO. She just dances around the question. I'm also worried because I have gotten a "bill" (no charges yet) in the mail for the $340/month in permanent and $125/month in term and $170 in short term disability. + +Is there anything I can do to make sure I don't get charged this? If I communicate with her any farther, she just tries to talk to us about why we need to invest with her, etc. + +WHAT DO WE DO. She is being shady AF. +Long story short: rented to adult couple who are heavy smokers. Fresh Reno. They were alerted to the no smoking policy when lease was signed. I know they have smoked in the place, had a maintenance man tell me they admitted it. + +I have smelled the stink of smoke in the basement suite (they are upstairs) but no physical proof. + +I suppose waiting for the lease to run out is the easiest, but what if the cost of re paint/etc is more than the damage deposit? How do I prove they were smoking? Why would a judge believe the landlord over the tenant, if you can't prove the stink to the judge? +**CTC, LLC. Chicago Trading Company - Hedge Fund** + +I was looking at this company a few weeks ago before the 6/30/2021 13F filings were posted on the SEC website. Originally, I thought I wasn't reading it correctly or someone had made a minor mistake. Nonetheless, I still found it kind of weird because the difference between the filing format of the 12/31/2020 13F and the 3/31/2021 13F was noticeably different. + +December's 13 F filing was very neat, clean, and gave you all the information without needing to dig for it. The font was all the same color right at the top they gave you the compliance officers name and displayed the portfolio value (probably proudly, like fuq yuh check dis big dick energy out, we return more than your dad does when he said he is going to the gas station for cigarettes). Below the portfolio value total, you have a Holdings Table that shows all of their positions, and again it was really easy to look at and read and interpret. They were holding such stocks as Apple, Amazon, SPY - you know your typical blue-chip powerhouse stocks. But there were also some stocks that you would probably consider to be “Reddit stocks” such as NIO, Palantir, and Tesla. A+ folio in my book, Cathie Wood vibe almost. Whatya know, they were holding the ARK ETF TR :). + +Recap: + +*Reporting Period: 12/31/2020* + +*Portfolio Value: $3,114,929,000* + +*Filing Format: Normal, not weird* + +So moving on to the March 13 F filing - Immediately upon opening it, I thought I was looking at a different form type than the one I was previously looking at a few minutes ago. So I went back to the December form and double-checked. + +*December: SEC FORM 13F-HR* + +*March: SEC FORM 13F-HR* + +Ok, same form. Why does March look like someone made this with a computer running a crayon-based operating system, printed it, faxed it over to themselves, scanned it as a PDF and finally uploaded it to the SEC website (compared to December)? Maybe it is not the same company? + +*December: Form 13F File Number: 028-13225* + +*March: Form 13F File Number: 028-13225* + +No, it is the same one… well what the frick then. Now there is a blue font, the formatting is all over the place and I don’t see where their Holding Table is. Oh wait, I found it. A tiny little button marked as “form13fInfo\_20210401.html” hyperlinks you to a separate window. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/654wcf5mj5681.png?width=344&format=png&auto=webp&s=13007c6a162887c617aca3a6f4b679668f0f1aa1 + +Again, blue font and is not formatted well. Then, I’m looking... And looking… Where is the portfolio value? Oh, it is on the page we were previously on. In really small print compared to December... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ekq6g8qmj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=5024d5f8836f1c010aa8db3a35b22d47f4afed42 + +And for reference here is December: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/k43czpdnj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=2452b3d6f34273fe5fdce8661d40d365f7f61e0b + +*Form 13F Information Table Value Total: 381,875 (in thousands)* + +Maybe I am just paranoid but man, the difference in format between the two is obvious. + +I look at financial figures often but I don’t think I have ever seen someone label a number in thousands before, so to be sure I wasn’t being crazy, I googled it. Abbreviating in thousands means add three zeros. So, their portfolio value as of March was **$381,875,000**. What the f? Uhhhh where did **$2.7 Billion** go? That can’t be correct. I tried understanding how to value the Holdings Table but then I realized an episode of GI Joe was about to start so I didn’t dig any further (JK I tried for hours but couldn’t get anything to tie out because I have no real experience in 13F filings). They probably just missed a digit, any digit, because then it would be back to the billions. + +But I was still very perplexed about this March 13F. So like any rabbit Reddit reading regime reigning whistle-blowing referee, I kept digging my hole. I did some basic background on the company. So, I went to their website and eventually ended up on the news tab. It was kind of bland - like any other company that has a news section on their website. Not too many posts either… So few posts, that right at the top you have the news announcement of their ‘newly’ appointed CEO which was in June 2019. This young guy looks like a frat boy. Worked there 20 years at the company though, so probably a justified appointment. + +[https://www.chicagotrading.com/news](https://www.chicagotrading.com/news) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6k2il1koj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=91b9c981964b6ed369391b4c99fd40ef941edbba + +Then I moved on to Glassdoor. Great website if you haven’t used it. It is a place for employees to review their own company, share salary, and even how interviews go. Usually, the best company reviews are the people who give a 1 rating and just rant about how bad their company was. Well, of course, I found one dated **May 26, 2021**, by a Quantitative Analyst. His/her review reads: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/r05vrfvcm5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=181f66dc44017d8e2aec1143b2857e902806a1cb + +Disgruntled Quant? Ok, something is going awwwwn ladies and gents. I’ll look deeper. + +I go back to the SEC website. + +AND HERE WE GO. I found something under the rough. I present to you Form D - Notice of Exempt Offerings of Securities. What is a Form D and why is it important? + +*Form D is important because it keeps you within legal boundaries. Under the Securities Act of 1933 in an offering made under Rule 504 or 506 of Regulation D or Section 4(a)(5) of the Securities Act; You can't simply begin selling securities to fund your business without filing the appropriate paperwork. If your offerings aren't public, you can avoid the typical registration process. Regardless of your final decision, you must let the SEC know you're offering securities.* + +*Keep in mind that you must raise funding from “accredited investors” for the Form D exemption to apply as noted in Rule 506 of Regulation D . These are investors who usually earn over $200,000 a year or are worth at least $1 million. You can also offer securities to companies worth at least $5 million. By either registering with the SEC or filing Form D, a business has taken the time to show they're not providing an illegal public offering.* + +*On Form D, you must also identify “Related Persons” so the SEC can check their credentials. This includes:* + +* *Each executive officer and director and individuals performing similar functions for the issuing company* +* *Each person who has promoted the issuing company either directly or indirectly within the past five years of the first sale of securities or the date when the Form D filing was required to be made, whichever is later.* + +*Notice of Exempt Offering of Securities - Form D* + +[*https://sec.report/Document/0001865215-21-000001/*](https://sec.report/Document/0001865215-21-000001/) + +*Minimum investment accepted from any outside investor* *$200,000 USD* + +*Enter the total number of investors who already have invested in the offering: 39* + +*Total Amount Sold* *$29,900,000* + +*Total Remaining to be Sold* *Indefinite* + +CTC filed a Form D under the issuer’s identity CTC Alternative Strategies, LLC (lol, alternative strategies) CIK 0001865215. The address listed as the Principle Place of Business is the same as CTC; 425 S. Financial Place 4th Floor, Chicago. + +They also listed each executive in section 3 of the form as they are required to: + +* *Chief Operating Officer* +* *Chief Investment Officer* +* *Chief Legal Officer* +* *Chief Financial Officer* +* *Chief Compliance Officer (the same guy who signs off on the 13Fs mentioned previously)* +* *President of Manager of Issuer* + +But wait… there is no Chief Executive Officer listed? And the signer on this document is the President or Manager of Issuer? Where is Mr. 2019 frat boy CEO (no shame to frat boys, I was a Phi Kappa Psi in college)? Is he no longer an executive? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pcylfwnvj5681.png?width=741&format=png&auto=webp&s=9349dc1bc6ab5668ecd278662b6b768bd9750ab4 + +The first “Related Persons” listed is the parent company. I thought this was weird, thinking that the CEO should be listed in first, instead of the parent, and was surprised that the parent is listed as a person at all. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nd3j6dewj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c99d3933b5e26420d3837ed2ca57c92ea7c010d + +Well, turns out this isn’t so weird, as per another company’s filing below: + +https://preview.redd.it/6c5df6kxj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddeddc255d4c620faf5804300f2fb431820b6fcf + +But this brings us back to: *On Form D, you must also identify “Related Persons” so the SEC can check their credentials. This includes:* + +* ***Each executive officer*** *and director and individuals performing similar functions for the issuing company* +* *Each person who has promoted the issuing company either* ***directly or indirectly within the past five years*** *of the first sale of securities or the date when the Form D filing was required to be made, whichever is later.* + +Seems like Mr. 2019 frat boy should have been listed no? I would at least assume he is indirectly related and without a doubt within the 5 year rule. *Was he removed as CEO?* I don’t see any news about it and his linkedin profile still lists him as being in that position. Was he specifically excluded as to not have him associated with this subsidiary to, for whatever reason, not make the investors aware of his association? Or maybe the SEC because they didn’t want to check his credentials (or more likely, put him in the spotlight). ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) + +Ok, moving on to my next point of why a Form D? Why are they even raising funds? Under a different subsidiary? In June of 2021? And only raising an amount that would be immaterial to the value of their billion-dollar portfolio? 29 million raised? Peanuts. + +Here is the end game. Finally, the 6/30/2021 13F filing was issued. Honestly, I forgot about all of this until today and decided to check if it was there. And here it is: + +[*https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000004/*](https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000004/) + +*77,880 (in thousands) - $77,880,000* + +*6/30/2021* + +*Form 13 F File Number 028-13225* + +I can now confidently say that the previous 13F in March was not an error. They fricken lost 97% of their portfolio in 9 months? And now they are so desperate to stay afloat they had to do a private offering to raise $29 million which represented about 50% OF THEIR ENTIRE PORTFOLIO VALUE as of 6/30/2021? HAHAHAHAHAHA. Yes, they could have moved the positions elsewhere… but why and where? Couldn’t find anything. + +How can you possibly lose that much money in such a short period. Sure this isn’t any kind of Archegos level loss, but damn. Well, only about 7 times less of a loss... + +Let's go back to their Holding Tables from December to June. + +In December no GME or AMY positions at all. + +In March, GME (puts and calls, put to call ratio of 1.8 - Bearish) and AMY positions (puts and calls, put to call ratio of .58 - Bullish). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/njh68wlzj5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=d93641989f97e30558e409bf8af73756fdf379dc + +https://preview.redd.it/nbvtw470k5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=08d3a84c6df3b296e3f2d9291d2e300a402097fd + +In June, GME (puts and calls, put to call ratio of .61 - Bullish) and AMY (puts and calls, put to call ratio of 1.08 - Bearish) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ts9fyy31k5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0625e543e5166fe475ffebbe302cdc1d861075cb + +https://preview.redd.it/foppn3o1k5681.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab04080cc1deb9ce957e8f8ea9cf17d2351feabe + +Now also you have to incorporate the size of the put and call positions, their strikes & expiry, and their movement from quarter to quarter. I’m not going to conclude on those since we are working with limited information. What we also have limited information on are any possible short positions which, as you know, are not reported on 13F or anywhere else. So maybe, just maybe, with a giant grain of the good old spicey speculation… they shorted GME and AMY and got absolutely destroyed and then proceeded to fire the CEO from his position (quietly) to take the blame for such a significant loss and their only option to stay alive is to file a Form D under a subsidiary to raise funds from private and accredited investors because they done fucked up. + +**Conclusion:** + +I don’t know for certain if they broke any securities laws, with the possible exception of the listing of direct or indirect executives pursuant to *Rule 504 or 506 of Regulation D or Section 4(a)(5) of the Securities Act* by omission of their CEO - to my understanding of the rule. + +What I do know is what once seemed minorly sketchy to me a few weeks ago, now seems like a total possibility of fraudulent activity. With additional information needed that I cannot obtain myself, I am in no position to make such a conclusion with reasonable assurance. What I suggest is: + +* Look into the CEO, or former CEO for that matter. +* Look into the portfolio; did they really sustain such significant losses? +* Why does the format of the 13F filings change so significantly from the formats they filed previously? Are they intentionally trying to make it difficult to evaluate the movement in their positions with malicious intent? +* Find out who that disgruntled quant was and why he thought management was incompetent in May 2021 as the Hedge Fund, allegadily from my analysis, was sustaining continued and heavy losses. He/she could have some information. + +BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE? I didn’t include this because there may be reasons why they don’t want to use an entity that was incorporated in the Cayman but they already had a “Alternative Strategies” established. Though, it has not been used since 2015. [https://sec.report/CIK/0001569550](https://sec.report/CIK/0001569550) + +Ok really, wait there is more now. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9srcpjylk5681.png?width=1250&format=png&auto=webp&s=0f1b562f5f0716363bde4df33fca407fca42e27c + +Their Q3, SEC filing is formatally fucked. THE FUCK IS THIS + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/c8hkvjyak5681.png?width=2219&format=png&auto=webp&s=b86beab9187d1345d7ddfdf77bd11299a13f2853 + +and they amended it 3 times? HUH. + +**REFERENCES** + +CTC LLC (Chicago Trading Company) + +Address 425 S. Financial Place 4th Floor, Chicago + +Chief Compliance Officer, Mathew Abraham + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-20-000004/](https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-20-000004/) + +$3,516,538,000 + +9/30/2020 + +Form 13F File Number: 028-13225 + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000001/](https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000001/) + +$3,114,929,000 + +12/31/2020 + +Form 13F File Number: 028-13225 + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000003/](https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000003/) + +381,875 (in thousands) - $381,875,000 + +3/31/2021 + +Form 13 F File Number 028-13225 + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000004/](https://sec.report/Document/0001445893-21-000004/) + +77,880 (in thousands) - $77,880,000 + +6/30/2021 + +Form 13 F File Number 028-13225 + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +CTC Alternative Strategies, LLC ALTERNATIVE HAHAHAHAHAHA + +Address 425 S. Financial Place 4th Floor, Chicago + +Chief Compliance Officer, Mathew Abraham + +Notice of Exempt Offering of Securities + +[https://sec.report/Document/0001865215-21-000001/](https://sec.report/Document/0001865215-21-000001/) + +Minimum investment accepted from any outside investor $200,000 USD + +enter the total number of investors who already have invested in the offering: 39 + +Total Amount Sold $29,900,000 + +Total Remaining to be Sold Indefinite + +DISCLAIMER: I’m an idiot and am not accusing any one or any entity of anything. This is for entertainment purposes only. I like eating wax + +edit: RYAN COHEN IS MY DAD +https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-voluntary-early-redemption-senior-notes-0 + +*wink-wink, nudge-nudge: one time dividend paid in crypto* + + +*edit: [The MOASS Preparation Guide](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mm5qle/the_moass_preparation_guide/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) trust me, go read it.* +**EDIT:** I'm absolutely blown away by the kindness and support I've received on this post--I've teared up multiple times in the last 24 hours. Thank you so much to everyone for the kind words and thoughtful advice, I wasn't sure what I was expecting by posting here, but I now realize 1. I have a lot of time and space to figure things out and don't need to rush into a job just because being unemployed makes me uncomfortable and 2. I'm allowed to expand my imagination wayyy beyond the confines of a 9-5 type role. Also, to the many people who recommended it, I've been in therapy for years with a great therapist and I'm happy to help others find providers in their area. Finally, I'm not going to continue using this throwaway much longer but may occasionally check my messages--if ANYONE is in a similar situation and wants to talk to someone who *gets it,* or wants a compatriot in some void-screaming, please reach out. Much love to you all <3 + +\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +Using a throwaway for obvious reasons. + +I'm a 27 year old male with a lib arts degree from a top American uni and 5+ years experience in big tech (was making \~$150k/yr). Everything went to shit a year ago when I lost both of my parents in a highly publicized tragedy; we were extremely close and, in all honesty, a lot of the last year is a blur to me. I was the sole heir of their estate, worth \~$25-30M, and the ensuing wrongful death suits settled at about $20M. I have great financial advisors + lawyers handling the money and any remaining legal matters, as well as friends of my parents who have stepped up and are advising me every step of the way. I also have a very strong+big support network of friends, thank god. + +For a while after my parents' deaths, I wanted to "leave society" and hide out in the woods for the rest of my quiet-but-peaceful life. I fantasized daily about running away and entering a Buddhist monastery. The compounded grief and whiplash caused by the drastic change in my financial situation was overwhelming; at this point I had recently left my job to attend a social science graduate program full-time, but quickly found that, given my new circumstances and perspective on life, my heart was no longer in that pursuit--not unreasonable IMO. I withdrew last spring and took the summer off to read+write and spend time with loved ones at the beach. It was an excellent call, and I feel ready to pick up the pieces and re-enter The World. + +I also feel duty-bound to other people. While I did not ask for any of this, I've realized that I'm now in a position to do some real good in the world, to honor my parents' memories to the fullest of my abilities, and to even have a little fun while doing it. I'm not interested in the money beyond the freedom it affords me. I'm a really studious guy who's fascinated by just about everything (mainly philosophy, science, and languages + cultures), and I toyed with the idea of applying to PhD programs, but the academic career rat-race sounds miserable, and the idea of writing for an audience of one for the rest of my life is a non-starter. + +I suppose my question is something like: if you were in my situation and wanted to make the biggest positive impact possible, what would you do next? I definitely don't want to go back to tech, but am very happy to have the skillset. I had worked in a law office in undergrad and really wanted to go to law school but chose not to due to the ensuing debt, which would have precluded me from going into public interest work. Now that's back on the table. Most attorneys are pretty miserable though, and I question whether working client-by-client is "enough" in the grand scheme of things. A new train of thought involves diving deep into finance/business in order to get a seat at the table in impact investing, philanthropy, NGO management, or even international development. I'm weighing all my options and will only proceed once I feel confident in my choices. + +I'm happy to verify this post if requested. Many thanks in advance for any and all advice! +For those saying the SEC/GG is worthless & doesn’t do shit: + +— …2021-010 was withdrawn when apes got loud. + +For those asking for an ELI5: + +“assuming no significant changes from 2021-010 it’s a rule to launder illegal naked shorts & persistent FTDs + +The NSCC explicitly “understands” that there are significant FTDs, Naked Shorts and similar that need to be cleared. This rule proposes a service to “avoid” those pesky obligations. It does so by introducing a new transaction layer that “novates” (replaces) old obligations b/w NSCC member lender / short sellers / prime brokers / etc. with a new obligation b/w a member and the NSCC itself as the new counterparty. This novation is done with even more lending of securities. + +Comment on the rule. It has been withdrawn twice already and this is the third time it has be introduced. If this service is implemented before the float is locked via DRS and there is every reason to believe that MOASS trendies and justice are seriously threatened.” + + +Now. For those saying I am of so few wrinkles, can I have a template? + +— the answer is NO! Get PISSed and write from your heart. This proposal is not in the interest of RETAIL. This does NOT lead to Transparency or hold those who have put this country at risk accountable. + +Edit: last year I needed help attaching a document to an email, so bear with me. + +SR-NSCC-2022-801 is the advance notice + +Folks are telling me: + +SR-NSCC-2022-003 is the current & best version for comments: + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc/2022/34-94694.pdf + +Email: rule-comments@sec.gov + +Another direct link: + +https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nscc-an.htm +What is it about Austin that makes it stand out and made it become so popular in what seems like overnight? 10 years ago, everyone was moving to Williamsburg. Now everyone's buzzing about Austin. What gives? Where did the trend in the culture come from and is the trend justified (i.e. Does Austin offer something better than anywhere else in the country? What is it?) or is it just clever real estate marketing? Were there any investors who saw the potential in Austin before it blew up, and if so, what did the early indicators look like? How can that be observed in other markets around the country (Nashville and Atlanta seem to have similar Renaissances of their own)? + +EDIT: I noticed I'm being downvoted. Can y'all point me to the right sub to talk about this? + +2nd EDIT: I was getting downvoted earlier. Thanks for the responses. +Basically the title. Could I gift my parents cash (either under the 15k annual reportable limit, or more than that and report it), have them invest it (maybe just drop in a broad based index fund) and then inherit that when they die and not have to pay cap gains since the basis will step up? +It's Crypto Euphoria stage, Fundamentals are out, Memecoins are in. And **Charity Memecoins** are godlike. **$HAPPY** just confirmed that theory once again, reaching $30 Million Valuation and **8K Holders in less than 12 HOURS**!!!!! This is unheard of, it surpasses any other memecoin I have seen in this bullmarket, even surpassing the initial SAFEMOON growth by a huge margin, if this growth keeps up we will have 100k holders in less than a week!! + +And best of all they are doing it for a cause that touches close to my heart, donating helping to fight mental illness. It joins the sentimental with the pumpamental so this is impossible for me to pass on! + +**Website**: + +[https://www.thehappycoin.co/](https://www.thehappycoin.co/) + +**Pancakeswap**: + +[https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb0b924c4a31b7d4581a7f78f57cee1e65736be1d](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xb0b924c4a31b7d4581a7f78f57cee1e65736be1d) + +**Chart**: + +[https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xB0B924C4a31b7d4581a7F78F57ceE1E65736Be1D](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xB0B924C4a31b7d4581a7F78F57ceE1E65736Be1D) + +**Telegram**: + +[https://t.me/happy\_coinTG](https://t.me/happy_coinTG) +One of my favorite stories of the past couple years is Bassett Furniture (BSET). They just completed the sale of their subsidiary, Zenith Freight lines, to J.B. Hunt, a trucking company. + +We don't have to guess anymore what the fair value of this asset was, because they spell it out: + +[http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220331/A3ZXS62CZ2229ZZZ2A2N2ZZZG22WZ6Y8Z242/bset20220226\_10q.htm](http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220331/A3ZXS62CZ2229ZZZ2A2N2ZZZG22WZ6Y8Z242/bset20220226_10q.htm) + + + +>***12.*** **Discontinued Operations** +> +>On *January 31, 2022,* we entered into a definitive agreement to sell substantially all of the assets of Zenith Freight Lines, LLC (“Zenith”) to J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (“J.B. Hunt”) for **approximately $86,900 in cash** subject to a customary post-closing working capital adjustment. The sale was completed on *February 28, 2022.* Accordingly, the operations of our logistical services segment, which consisted entirely of the operations of Zenith, are presented in the accompanying condensed consolidated statements of income as discontinued operations, and the assets sold to and liabilities assumed by J.B. Hunt are presented in the accompanying condensed consolidated balance sheets as assets and liabilities of discontinued operations held for sale. + +If we look at what the assets and liabilities carried on the books for this segment was, we find out what value these assets were being carried on the books at - including this sweet line: + +> In the second quarter of 2022, **we will recognize a substantial gain on this transaction** + + + +>Total assets of discontinued operations held for sale +> +>$61,888 (2022) $63,821 (2021) + +So J.B. Hunt paid $86,900 for $63,821 of on the books assets, ***a 30% premium***? Are they daft? No. For one, they are a national trucking line with lots more trucking specific infrastructure at their disposal. The synergy they can extract isn't a buzz word, it's real. Second, Bassett's books have almost certainly not accounted for the increase in value over time of the properties associated with their trucking subsidiary. + +A quick google let's us know when Bassett first began it's Zenith acquisition: + +> Commenting on the deal, Robert H. Spilman, Jr., Bassett's President and CEO, said, "Our initial investment in Zenith dates back to 1999. + +The assets were purchased in part 23 years ago, and fully acquired in 2015. That's land and buildings with plenty of time to appreciate. + +We could get a feel for this by looking into the 10-k and finding out what this subsidiary consisted of. Bassett laid it all out for anyone willing to read the details. + +>Our customer solutions are provided through the following services: +> +>\-Network line haul freight (middle mile) +> +>\-Warehousing, distribution and inventory management +> +>At November 27, 2021, our shipping and delivery fleet consisted of the following: +> +> +> +>**Owned Leased Total** +> +> Tractors +> +>125 110 235 +> +>Trailers +> +>318 360 678 +> +>Local delivery trucks +> +>7 22 29 +> +>We ***own a central warehousing and national distribution hub located in Conover, North Carolina***, and we lease fourteen facilities in ten states across the continental United States from which we operate regional freight terminals and provide warehouse and distribution services. + +We google and find out the distribution hub is on 20th street in Conover, NC. Another google we get the city website. Poke around, we find the zoning pages. + +[Catawba County assessor's portal](https://gis.catawbacountync.gov/parcel/) + +[One of bassett's acreages](https://gis.catawbacountync.gov/nomap/assessment_report.php?key=374119515108&card=1) (a dozen or so different plats) + +So there's a bunch of these. We could, if we cared to, go through them all and get reasonable guesses at the total property value involved, and adjust state equalized values to fair market. We can google and figure out what the average tractor and trailer is worth, as well as the average delivery truck, of which Bassett owned 125, 318, and 7, respectively. + +We could add up all these assets and see if the book value is being seriously understated. + +***So what does this mean for Bassett as a book value opportunity?*** To me it indicates they probably have other long-lived assets which are perpetually undervalued "on the books". This is a company that makes furniture. That's lathes and woodworking equipment inside a factory, some warehouses, etc. Stuff that changes very little, requiring minimal CapEx to keep up to date, and with replacement values probably far above and beyond what they paid decades ago. + +Now I don't typically go through all this detail with a fine tooth comb. I do fast napkin math. But it's all there, out in the open, for the taking. I look for things so obvious they can't be denied. + +In the 2020 panic, Bassett was selling under $10 per share from March to July. ***At it's 2020 low you could buy Bassett for 30 cents on the dollar of stated book, not considering hidden assets!*** Even if you'd not done your homework ahead of time, investors had 4 months to figure this out. This is a company with a rock solid balance sheet to begin with, and to riff Lincoln "*5 score and 20 years*" of operating history. Or *6 score*, or *a century plus a score*, if you prefer. A long damn time. Even today it sells at a fraction over stated Tangible Book (1.09), pays a solid dividend that's very easily covered, almost no debt outside of long-term lease obligations, with a number of special dividends paid when cash piled up. + +On top of all this, checking the insider trading we'd see none other than the CEO & Chairman, Spilman, Jr. was buying aggressively from Feb 2020 to October, with the bulk of it before July! When the CEO is buying, that's a good sign. When they buy 25% more stock than they owned previously in a 6 month period, really time to pay attention! + +This was one of those cases where you get to buy well under the price floor of the assets alone, on top of an operating company with a long history of profitability and dividend payments, and practically no chance of going belly up. + +When the market finally figured it out, Bassett Furniture rebounded and shot up to almost $39 per share. For the Nostradamus who could have bought and sold perfectly, this represented an extraordinarily safe investment ***with a 7-bagger coupon attached in just over a year***. + +For those willing to look, opportunities like this exist even today in "overpriced" markets. Just because the market might be high overall doesn't mean anything about a specific concern. + +**Something is always unpopular for no good reason.** + +Disclosure: I still own about half of the Bassett I picked up in 2020. My personal opinion it's probably a bit below fair value at $17.50, but nowhere near the screaming bargain it was. +Been seeing more and more of this stuff popping up, and seeing more and more people getting burned by it. Some very hard lessons are being learned. They are usually managed by a tight-knit, small group of people who pull large amounts of people in their groups, using you and everyone else to pour your and others' wealth (who are not in the groups but watching the markets) into their pockets. + +Think about it. These people *live* to screw people over. They've become masters at it. You're a goddamned amateur who doesn't know his ass from his elbow. You were brought there for them to eat you, and make it easier to eat everyone else. + +Just remember... when you hang with the hangman, the hangman comes to your door. +Both individuals and corporations pay property tax yearly for land and buildings that they own, why is there no similar tax for IP such as patents in order to prevent or mitigate both patent monopolies and patent trolling? + +Right now it seems that the trade the public makes in granting a patent is biased towards the patent applicant in terms of being granted a \~ 20 year monopoly on the technology at the cost of disclosing the invention, with no explicit requirement to bring the invention to market and a somewhat poor test for non-obviousness. The exclusive monopoly to what can be an obvious invention is perhaps a poor deal for the public to make. + +However, if patents were taxed there would be both an increased public benefit to patents and a disincentive to hoarding them unused or unlicensed. + +Since valuation of a patent could be problematic, one relatively simple solution might be: + +* Patents are given a value by the applicant during the application process. +* Yearly tax is based on this value. +* Maximum license fee and infringement penalty is equal to this value. +* Value can be decreased by applicant anytime during the patent lifetime, but never increased. +In 2019, the US federal, state, and local governments spent about 36% of GDP. In France, it was about 56%. Yes, France has universal health care, on which it spends about 11% of GDP, but government spending on health care in the US is about 7% of GDP, plus the US spends about 1.5% of GDP more on its military than France does. So together these two factors explain about 2.5 out of 20 percentage points. + +France doesn't have a UBI, and to the best of my knowledge they have more or less the same kinds of welfare programs that the US has; why is spending as a share of GDP so much higher? + +Finland, Belgium, and Denmark also had government spending in excess of 50% of GDP in 2018, so if anyone is more familiar with the situation in those countries, I would be just as interested in an answer based on one of them. Denmark might be even more of a mystery, since it's more comparable to the US in terms of unemployment and GDP per capita. + +Specifically I'm asking about the late 2010s, after recovery from the Great Recession but before COVID-19 spending got ramped up. +I think we need a new sub for people who actually understand/are living in poverty, as opposed to the folks trying increase their credit scores or or whine about how they only have 5k in Savings. + + +If you have to make the choice between eating or getting evicted, that’s poverty. Going without cel phone service for a month to keep the gas from being shut off is poverty. Going through an inventory of all the things you may be able to pawn or sell to put gas in your car to get to your shitty job or the closest food bank and maybe pay part of your ridiculous overdraft fees is poverty. + + +I understand that being broke is subjective, but it gets a little hard to take when you come onto this sub looking for real ideas in how to simply survive and all you read is posts by privileged folks looking to get a better apr on their loans or diversify their portfolios. + +Not trying to gatekeep here, just ranting. +[Book 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qxbzim/moass_the_trilogy_book_two/) + +[Book 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qzcag6/moass_the_trilogy_book_three/) + +I want to start this with a brief message about myself for those of you that don't follow me. + +There is a lot of FUD about me that I would like to dismiss. + +I think this is an important step so that my work and the work of many others who have helped me along the way. Is not judged on my personality or profession, but by it's quality and adherence to supporting evidence. + +Many of you were likely unaware of my existence or never gave me a glance due to the fact that I did Technical Analysis on a "highly manipulated" stock. + +So here is my GME story, + +Exactly one year ago, to the day, I entered my first position on GME. It was November 17^(th),2020 and GME opened at $11.5, after following DFV's posts for a few weeks I decided that his analysis was solid (far better than anything else I had read on that sub in my couple years lurking there), Bought in Feb.19th 20c and 500 shares. I will never forget inputting those orders, it changed my life and many of you probably have that same memory. + +I began at first to comment and then get more involved with community as a whole I liked watching the streams but found them to be disingenuous, I never felt that AMC was the play and I still don't. So I settled on warden, he was obviously inexperienced at TA and didn't have a lot of market knowledge, but it was cool to have a place to hang out and talk my favorite stock. + +When warden announced he was leaving to handle personal matters I decided that I didn't want the daily posts to end. I thought they helped people hodl and provided a calm grounded narrative of what the stock was doing everyday. With a lot of people returning to work I considered this valuable and tried my hand at it. As it grew keeping up with the barrage of questions became daunting so as per many daily followers request I started a YT stream. + +It was fun and small I got to answer questions and help apes better understand the markets, we had fun. many of the people that were with me those first few weeks are still around today. + +I never did it to make money, GME had already assured that wouldn't be an issue. But, I had to eventually face the fact that there was a real cost to the time I took away from my job trading, and with most of my holdings still in GME I decided to monetize my stream. The support from the people that choose to support me has been invaluable and also allowed me the time to dig deeper and deeper into GME over the last several months. I promised myself that I would never withhold information behind a paywall and that no ape would ever have to become a member to ask me a question. I've kept that promise. + +Then warden blew up his audience on the back of a pretty speculative DD and I got lumped in with the "youtubers are evil" sentiment, which honestly I understand, the vast majority of them are big fucking shills. Regardless of what I had done or service provided, I was so labeled. I've learned to live with it. + +But I've continued plugging away over these last 7-months missing 1 stream, 2 Daily DD posts, and 3 weekly DDs as I was moving. I've flown mostly under the radar most people didn't like my opinions and I didn't want to confirm anybody's bias. The speculative stuff is fine it's fun to talk about but it's not my cup of tea. + +What I did do was try to leverage my newfound role as an "influencer" and I selected from the people interested in my work, the best and brightest I could and built a team to dig into GME's many mysteries. We have succeed and we have failed, but from our failures we learned and pushed forward. + +This DD is the culmination of our efforts. I think over the course of me releasing it, no matter your feelings towards me, that you would be doing your self a disservice by not reading it. I strongly believe this thesis presents the most realistic and evidence based view of the market mechanics that drive GME price action and is the best, to date, predictor of it's potential in the future. + +As always I hodl with all of you, + +\- gherkinit + +🦍❤️ + +So the plan for this DD is as follows: + +* The events leading up to and causing the gamma ramp/volatility squeeze that occurred in January. +* Tie together the ETF, FTD, Options and Futures cyclical movement that drives GME price action +* Lay out my futures cycle theory and explain the price movements on GME to date +* Explain why January's run did not cause the expected short squeeze on GME +* Take a look forward, using the same unavoidable market mechanics, to determine where SHFs, MMs, and ETFs are most exposed. +* Present a case for retail to in fact be the catalyst for MOASS +* Discuss the how and why , this is possible. +* Dispel the misinformation regarding options and present multiple ways they can be used effectively by those with the requisite knowledge. + +I will attempt to make an **evidence backed case** for each of my conclusions and try to tie all of this together in a way people can digest and understand. + +# Part I: January 2021 + +In January of last year we witnessed the price of GME rocket 2700%, according to the SEC report written a few weeks ago this was not due to SHF covering and it was not due to a gamma squeeze as was previously thought. + +Meaning that based on the SEC report, the price action witnessed in January was due almost entirely to retail buying and options hedging. + +While a lot of that conclusion appears to be true from the data presented, January was not likely the result of WSB's largest pump n' dump. + +Something else was going on behind the scenes something left out of the report... + +The massive short interest not only on GME but the short interest on ETFs that contained GME. + +The SEC report touches on this briefly but really limits it's explanation of what was going on, giving an example of XRT, but conveniently not the other 106 (currently) ETFs containing GME. + +**So what actually happened?** + +Well I guess the best place to start is Melvin Capital... + +**Section 1: Melvin Capital** + +As many of you know Melvin Capital, by their own admission, began their short position on GME in 2014. They built a massive short position over several years likely with the intention of driving GME out of business or deeply into debt. + +[The bear case for GME was strong, Melvin's position is evidenced here in the weekly OBV for GME indicating strong selling pressure.](https://preview.redd.it/5hdvmkmgx4081.png?width=2393&format=png&auto=webp&s=5055f9ea87e8c28b180a1693c7f4e4bab4bce41f) + +Until Michael Burry's purchase in 2019 Melvin was definitely winning the battle. This represented a integral change in the short positions on GME the renewed interest on the stock put a massive number of these short positions underwater. + +In August of 2020 and December of 2020 RC Ventures made their purchases of GameStop's stock (catalyzing the cycles I will define later in this DD), further exacerbating the pressure on GME short positions. + +# By the end of December 2020, the last three years of Melvin Capital's short position was negative 33% to 751%. + +**Section 2: The Big Boys** + +How did Citadel, Susquehanna, and Point 72, end up on the wrong side of retail? + +We know of their involvement due to the bailout's offered by them to Robinhood and Melvin Capital in January. Bailouts likely designed to prevent margin calls on these much smaller positions which could have had catastrophic effects for Citadel's et al. margin. + +Well if we take a look at the broader market during this time frame you will see significant short-interest in retail ETFs pick up after March of 2020. With Coronavirus mounting and no end to the pandemic in sight, there was a strong bear case against traditional retail. + +With companies like Amazon realizing all time highs e-commerce was looking better and better. It's not hard to see the justification these guys are likely some of many that went short the entire sector. ETFs presented a great way to short the entire sector in one fell swoop. That combined with less stringent reporting requirements and near infinite ability to create shares, provided the ideal opportunity for the massive funds. + +Go into any mall in America throw a rock and you will hit a company that these guys were short on. + +AdamMelvinCitadel, BBBY, M, EXPR, JWN, DDS, etc... the list goes on and on + +All these stocks move with GameStop because they were short the whole sector/index. They still are. + +[XRT current short interest](https://preview.redd.it/hp5jsp7ve5081.png?width=412&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f67552f4f7b6441d621c33150a5b1b1e69d7588) + +We can still see evidence of this ETF exposure play out on the charts as well + +[Some ETF basket stocks mimicking GME price action ](https://preview.redd.it/1x5sqzkrx4081.png?width=2203&format=png&auto=webp&s=980b1d2bf8404c3fd26efbcaa9baab8e748afec0) + +**Section 3: The Clash of the Titans** + +Moving into January GameStop price is improving exponentially. Putting pressure on existing short positions. + +From August low to December high it is now up 405.37% + +This price increase in the underlying starts to breed FOMO we see retail buying in at ever increasing numbers stock. + +https://preview.redd.it/v8jrkh7zx4081.png?width=644&format=png&auto=webp&s=077a6a3b72ad04a672e616efc338b5fd82ebce2f + +and options... + +https://preview.redd.it/44142jh2y4081.png?width=1201&format=png&auto=webp&s=07933ec0eccb10b10890f08fbed21d1f3a6e5402 + +This push combined with delta hedging led to the price increasing another 2400% over the rest of the month. + +But on January 29th it all comes crashing down... + +But it can't be that simple it wasn't purely FOMO as the SEC would have you believe. + +January's price action was kicked off by a series of events that almost a year later we have a much better grasp of. + +# Part II: Cyclical Market Mechanics + +Underlying all of GME's price movement to date are several independent cycles that I have identified over the last few months. + +I've outlined these a bunch of times on my stream, but I want to get the information all in one place. + +**Section 1:** **Futures Roll Dates** + +First lets start with the first one I noticed that led me down this rabbit hole. + +CME Futures Roll dates strongly corresponded to GME price action So let's look at those. + +[This was the first significant indicator of price action on GME. These became very apparent after the July run into earnings and subsequent drop.](https://preview.redd.it/l4dz8c36y4081.png?width=746&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd86cc39ba844725e9792758c42e3a396a09559d) + +Once we stared digging back into previous rolls we realized that there were two variations. + +**1.** **The Roll:** + +This is marked by an increase of volume and price into the roll date, followed by a drop immediately afterwards. (Feb-Mar and Jun - Jul) + +**2. The Fail:** + +This is marked by a sharp spike in volume several days prior to the roll date then a decline in volume and volatility until a window of activity appears (anomaly) T+35 days after the roll date. **(t**hese T+35 dates also lined up with spikes in SEC FTD reports) + +[Fails create anomalies, Rolls do not](https://preview.redd.it/80grq2zay4081.png?width=2395&format=png&auto=webp&s=9232643a6501a6172f96e9919b4fd9f6388a41af) + +With these data points locked down the next logical place to look was what was causing these initial spikes. + +We currently know of two separate futures position exposure on GME + +* Variance Swaps as described by u/Zinko83 in this excellent DD, Volatility, Variance, Dispersion, Oh my! (must got to profile as it cannot be linked here) +* Swaps used to hedge NAV or exposure on creation baskets in ETFs. More on ETF here in u/Turdfurg23's DD The ETF Money Tree (same deal cause auto-mod) + +https://preview.redd.it/liaux6uhy4081.png?width=1465&format=png&auto=webp&s=b53ba0d63f55dcc18d30ca3e5d4032c2e440dc9c + +**Section 2: ETF Exposure** + +We were fairly confident at this point in our research that ETFs represented a significant part of the short exposure on GME. + +The ease of share creation by Authorized Participants and the exceptionally long settlement periods afforded to them, made ETFs the perfect way to not only continually suppress the price but also a great place to hide longer term short exposure, without the reporting requirements of traditional bona-fide market making. + +[This process is covered exceptionally in this paper by Richard B. Evans](https://jacobslevycenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/ETF-Short-Interest-and-Failures-to-Deliver.pdf) + +[and this video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncq35zrFCAg) + +So where was this exposure we knew that somewhere in these overlapping cycles we were gonna find it and we did. + +[These options dates that line up perfectly with OpEx, ETF Quarterly Options and GME Monthly Expiration ](https://preview.redd.it/0u7a2l5ny4081.png?width=1045&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e8ba722102a099879e3b22d4965af300699dbad) + +But it didn't fit until we factor in gamma exposure (GEX) from market makers on T+2/3 + +Then we start to see a very strong correlation with GME initial pump on these runs and overlapping gamma exposure. Starting after RC's initial buy in, with the magnitude increasing exponentially after his second purchase in December. + +https://preview.redd.it/wfvsonavy4081.png?width=2394&format=png&auto=webp&s=9504b0580a4ce2bc3c0073069b3b7e49d9c69651 + +These exposure dates have kickstarted the price increases on GME in the last 5 out of 5 futures cycles + +**So a quick break here to recap...** + +We know ETF Exposure kickstarts these cycles and that they either roll the futures (causing a run as the cover losses before rolling contracts forward) or fail to roll the contracts (causing FTD pile-ups in the anomaly window) + +So this left us asking **why January**? + +We had the obvious answer already, the SEC claimed that retail single handedly pulled off one of the largest pump and dumps in history with zero collusion...but did Daddy Gensler tell us the truth? + +Something had to be different about January's cycle specifically + +Then we stumbled across this little tidbit that had been staring us in the face for months. + +[ETF and Equity Leaps expire not once, but two times in the Dec-Jan Cycle](https://preview.redd.it/hpxl9ig5z4081.png?width=162&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e3e06f4c0006ce71e5d3056e622f3cea0e45d9) + +LEAPS for those of you that are unaware present a far higher amount of gamma exposure than quarterlies. + +[This is largely due to institutional interest in longer dated options contracts](https://preview.redd.it/h1vi3hu7z4081.png?width=1588&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ad62722c46e646fd43f473ee17e7eb01856fb21) + +So let's look at these LEAP exposure dates in relation to the rest of our cycle + +[The price action and volume from Dec-Jan on these dates speaks for itself but June is the most impressive to me because in a sea of red from the ATM share offering and GME ETF rebalancing resulting in 12m+ shares sold at market, even all that liquidity wasn't enough to suppress the price, the expiration and the following t+2 days were still up. ](https://preview.redd.it/zqonhkhdz4081.png?width=2393&format=png&auto=webp&s=a10a25578e14b730f0187b63d446b62446c5f8d6) + +**Section 3: The FTD pileup** + +This is the last bit of what ties all this together. + +Since the futures fail patterns have a unique outcome that causes this anomaly window what exactly drives that anomaly in the areas in between the ETF exposure dates and the the subsequent futures roll. + +The answer is FTDs + +Now there are 2 types of FTDs + +1. **MM and SHF FTDs** \- Most people know this on by now but just in case + +*T+2/3 trading days (locate) + 35 calendar days (REG T)* + +2. **ETF Authorized Participant (AP)** \- + +Authorized participants have a bit more flexibility and thus there failures can occur outside of the standard timeline. + +[So AP's have T+3 trading days \(locate\) & T+6 trading days \(settlement\) + 35 calendar days \(REG T\) ](https://preview.redd.it/m6yfav5hz4081.png?width=978&format=png&auto=webp&s=7652021b21beab48c22d392f8028b98ed201179c) + +In the past you have heard a lot about T+35 and T+21 and this predicted cycles have failed to come to fruition because the anchor points for where the settlement periods end (t+2/t+6) and where the fail must be satisfied (t+35) were misplaced. + +Everyday is T+35 from another day, so having these ETF exposure dates and CME Roll and Expiration dates gave us insight into where MMs and APs had to do the most hedging and also where there was the most gamma exposure or deviation from NAV (net asset value, ETF hedging metric). + +With these anchor point locked down we started to be able to build out a t+35 timeline + +[The light-blue vertical lines represent GME FTD Regulation T dates set from the point of failure](https://preview.redd.it/1h6nrl3mz4081.png?width=2462&format=png&auto=webp&s=0549ae00458182a0056ae30440319f561e7a1c39) + +and since there are still a couple days around these periods with unexplained movement, such as November 3^(rd,) where we were sideswiped by completely unexpected price action. + +This is due to something we had never initially tracked ETF FTDs, throughout the year FTDs on GME containing ETFs had been fairly minimal with a few spikes here and there. So we sidelined the information and focused on GME. + +Well something interesting happened on September 21^(st.), that got attention immediately. + +[GME Containing ETFs Spiked with the largest numbers of FTDs to Date](https://preview.redd.it/7hjs32gpz4081.png?width=1947&format=png&auto=webp&s=c177e6fee4d77fe4945162a479a7cf45f9eb8329) + +Well guess what happened T+6 (trading) and 35 calendar days after that futures failure, like clockwork on November 3rd... + +[The final piece of the puzzle](https://preview.redd.it/jahpcbqsz4081.png?width=2454&format=png&auto=webp&s=f12c438ff49293f33689898c9b793e7e3a770d2a) + +So this at this point we are still unsure if this also occurred in other cycles, the only other large ETF FTD spikes we have this year are far smaller quantity. So now we have to go back and look at the previous cycles. + +* For the cycles that fail to roll futures the largest exposure date is the CME rollover(red line) +* For cycles were they roll the greatest amount of exposure is on the first FTD date (blue line) + +[Historical ETF FTD dates](https://preview.redd.it/f0vy7jphfa081.png?width=2499&format=png&auto=webp&s=848c3889848e30153a551147b0f8787f24c8564b) + +**Section 4: January IS absolutely unique!** + +Remember those LEAPS we talked about earlier? + +One day a year in January the highest amount of open interest and thus gamma exposure in the options chain occurs... + +# GME LEAPS and ETF LEAPS expire simultaneously + +this moment indicates the largest amount of exposure across the entire year on GME, and and also presents the highest probability for a short squeeze (more on this later) + +Without further ado... + +[Full futures Cycle breakdown from Sep 2020 to today](https://preview.redd.it/fhrrolg205081.png?width=2368&format=png&auto=webp&s=c67a7bf00437661aec9146dd29a398bf0f078ded) + +Here is the final guide to GME price action and the summation of this part of the thesis + +These dates and windows (futures) track almost every single move on GME since September of 2020. If it didn't happen on one of these dates/windows then it happened within their respective settlement periods (T+2/3) + +and for the smoother readers... + +[Basic representation ](https://preview.redd.it/jk68w43i15081.png?width=2396&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad00f2e3254eebe05cf5dea139fb290a3903af6a) + +This concludes this part of the DD, I have been writing non-stop since I ended my stream yesterday and am unlikely to do much today. I have been awake for 24 hours and still have to complete the of the other two parts of this by tonight. + +Please avail yourselves of the linked DDs they present evidence necessary to understand the following section of this. + +For my Daily DD followers, I'm sure you understand the time sensitivity of this information and will excuse my absence on this likely red day. + +In the meantime a lot of it is covered here ... [talk with Houston Wade here explaining my current theory](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mntHdNqltkw) + +For more information on my futures theory please check out the [clips on my YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial/playlists). + +Daily Live charting (always under my profile [u/gherkinit](https://www.reddit.com/u/gherkinit/)) from 8:45am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +on my [YouTube Live Stream](https://www.youtube.com/c/PickleFinancial) from 9am - 4pm EDT on trading days + +or check out the [Discord](https://discord.gg/BGmjnrvHnw) for more stuff with fellow apes + +**As always thanks for following along.** + +🦍❤️ + +\- Gherkinit + +**Disclaimer** + +*\* Although my profession is day trading, I in no way endorse day-trading of GME not only does it present significant risk, it can delay the squeeze. If you are one of the people that use this information to day trade this stock, I hope you sell at resistance then it turns around and gaps up to $500.* 😁 + +*\*Options present a great deal of risk to the experienced and inexperienced investors alike, please understand the risk and mechanics of options before considering them as a way to leverage your position.* + +*\*My YouTube channel is "monetized" if that is something you are uncomfortable with, I understand, while I wouldn't say I profit greatly from the views, I do suggest you use ad-block when viewing it if you feel so compelled.* *My intention is simply benefit this community. For those that find value in and want to reward my work, I thank you. For those that do not I encourage you to enjoy the content. As always this information is intended to be free to everyone.* + +\**This is not Financial advice. The ideas and opinions expressed here are for educational and entertainment purposes only.* + +\* *No position is worth your life and debt can always be repaid. Please if you need help reach out this community is here for you. Also the NSPL Phone: 800-273-8255 Hours: Available 24 hours. Languages: English, Spanish.* [*Learn more*](https://suicidepreventionlifeline.org/) +$ATVI was trading at 64$ and yesterday on the news of $MSFT offer had a nice pop to $90+ before settling at around $82. $ATVI is trading down at $80-81 range. + +I am struggling to see why should one not buy $ATVI at this price with the MSFT offer price at $95 with 15-20% upside from here- regardless of the intrinsic value. + +Granted there are significant regulatory hurdles to go through - it will take time but what's the risk besides that? Arguably, it may even be available at a better price considering the bearish market we are in and the way stocks are trading? +Hey everyone! It's Warden. I'm taking a brief moment to write a chart analysis post because **I feel that we are nearing a critical junction point**. The volume today has been extremely low, currently sitting at around 1.7 million, and I feel that a lot of people are sensing that something big is coming. I've emptied the rest of my bank account into the dip today to buy more tickets to the moon. + +There's a lot of questions people are wondering at this point. + +When do we squeeze? + +What happens at the Apex of a wedge? + +Are there any important catalysts coming up? + +These are all questions that have answers, and I will try my best to address these. My thesis for this post, is that **as the stock breaks out of the wedge, if it chooses to follow the uptrend, it becomes increasingly expensive and impossible for shorts to bring this down any further. We may possibly climb to a point of no return for the shorts.** Let's examine why by starting with understanding what a wedge is. + +**The wedges I will reference in this post are symmetric wedges.** + +# Why wedges form, and what they mean fundamentally: the long and short theses + +**We are indeed nearing the Apex of the Mother Of All Wedges (MOAW)**; this is the ultimate hedgie wedgie. I wanted to provide a fundamental explanation for why this wedge has formed and what it means for the stock. + +Let's examine the simple uptrend. This is when the price forms higher lows, and higher highs. + +https://preview.redd.it/0ow58qcozbx61.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f501695cd83669a2a1decb3c2c00d9287e8941e + +And we also know what a downtrend is. Lower highs and lower lows. + +https://preview.redd.it/9jo273vuzbx61.png?width=1256&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc6d22c85c97b4436e3231220cc3aa7fac974b1e + +And uptrend is called the **frontside**, and the downtrend is called the **backside.** The thesis of people trading the frontside, is that they think it will go up. For short sellers, they trade the backside, because they think it will go down. + +Now if you get a really volatile stock, you might end up with a combination of the two theses, with two parties doing different strategies. This is why a wedge forms. Both theses are valid, and so both parties continuously trade in this wedge pattern. + +https://preview.redd.it/e7jvt1kd0cx61.png?width=1242&format=png&auto=webp&s=603621ecb51b5732735bc30ec339843c6ddb210c + +The short side thesis and strategy looks like this: + +https://preview.redd.it/onotnpjr2cx61.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&s=cb41c92ad2a6006143e750b21f17154e66829214 + +Imagine the opposite for longs. They buy at the dips, and the sell at the peaks. + +Thus, combining these two theses, we can conclude that: + +When the stock moves up, that's **buying plus covering.** + +When the stock moves down, that's **selling plus shorting.** + +Simultaneously, Longs and Shorts are both making money because they both have valid theses. One thinks the price will go down, and the other thinks it goes up. + +# Why the short thesis is invalid. Understanding OBV, the Spread, and FINRA's own short volume data + +**However there is a big problem with the short thesis for GameStop.** + +The short thesis is actually invalid. + +https://preview.redd.it/7ze2foyz1cx61.png?width=2062&format=png&auto=webp&s=10549bec5dce5197da52ab5204f6fa54d30aafa4 + +Notice how throughout the entire duration of this triangle, OBV is flat. On Balance Volume info: [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp) + +&#x200B; + +Take a look at a normal stock like Palantir. When a short thesis is valid, the price breaks out to the downside after the Apex. Palantir in the below picture, was a short side success. **Notice how OBV falls during a short side success.** + +[PLTR](https://preview.redd.it/s5d0jawj4cx61.png?width=2067&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b2ca4791a1926035b777a5bdb783853333482ac) + +Or Activision. In this case, **OBV goes up when the longs win.** + +[ATVI](https://preview.redd.it/vf7mgxbz3cx61.png?width=2061&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7ad83288ae0ff764c1127ace082cb58edfb8d31) + +**I challenge you to find a stock that doesn't follow these rules on a macro level timescale.** + +OBV increases, if there is more volume during uptrends than volume during downtrends. That means there is greater buying interest. Vice versa. + +When there is an imbalance of buyers and sellers, at the Apex of the triangle, there will be a "breakout". **This is because, at the apex, one of the two trends breaks. Either the upside or the downside trend is violated, forcing one of the parties to flip their thesis.** So if we go to the upside, the short sellers would flip to long side either by buying stock, or finally covering their shares. + +So what about a flat OBV? + +[GME](https://preview.redd.it/0cidbb045cx61.png?width=2061&format=png&auto=webp&s=f79cf98e9860e4b76b95632c0d12fbb8cae66c1b) + +I believe it means that throughout the duration of the wedge starting 2/24, nobody was f\*king selling. It was almost exclusively shorts short selling combined by less covering than shorting and retail buying in. + +In a way, it's actually an illusion that they are tanking the price. In reality, the real price is whatever the uptrend line is. So here, I think the "real price" is around 155 dollars. **We've actually been climbing up at the macro level.** I think this has to do with the spread. + +If you look at the Level 2 order book, you see the highest bid is 160.6, and the lowest ask is 160.74. + +https://preview.redd.it/2xhnfm2x5cx61.png?width=458&format=png&auto=webp&s=b364e3142324dea832e79c86cc386d38247c961c + +The goal of short selling is to tank the price. So you typically sell on the Bid. When you want to cover your shares, you want to ideally also buy on the Bid, because buying on the Ask is more expensive. However the issue is that liquidity is low, so if you have a deadline to cover FTDs, you need to buy on the Ask a lot. You actually end up losing money and the amount you lose is roughly equal to the average spread multiplied by how many shares you shorted. **The only way to profit from short selling, is if people sell more than they buy after you short.** Trading is a Zero Sum game, so the goal of short attacks is to paper hand people. + +The problem is we see consistent higher buy:sell ratio, meaning that more people are buying than selling. **Thus** **you probably can't make money if you short millions of shares, because eventually when you cover:** + +**A) You lose money from the Spread** + +**B) The price is already increasing from an excess of buyers.** + +Furthermore, what's even worse, is that the daily short volume percent is greater than 50% on average. + +u/dinghino crunched FINRA's own short volume numbers and concluded that the majority of daily volume was short selling. Here's his tool for grabbing historical data: [https://github.com/dinghino/stocks-historical-data](https://github.com/dinghino/stocks-historical-data) + +https://preview.redd.it/f9ofzm1x7cx61.png?width=2098&format=png&auto=webp&s=1370117bc4f55b069038b4c670422e01e3175ff1 + +Keep in mind FINRA both underreports short volume, and total volume. So the data we have is limited in reliability. There is a probability that short volume might be <50%. I have not been able to find other data sources that can confirm or reject this analysis. + +Okay, so first, we realize that they cannot really profit from shorting at the downtrend, and second despite this fact, they are shorting more than half the daily volume. + +Ouch. + +Now let's tie in the last two pieces of the puzzle. So how can there be a flat OBV if there are an excess of buyers? I believe it's because the Bid has been hit so much more than the Ask from the short sellers that it has caused the price to be artificially lower than normal. Thus, there's an increased number of days that the stock ends in the red, decreasing OBV. + +**I believe that the OBV is actually trending upwards. It's an illusion that it's flat.** The Bid has been hit from selling more than buying has hit the Ask. Therefore the net direction is down. The excess of retail buyers balances this out and causes the OBV to end up going flat. + +**We are not losing this fight. We are in fact holding strong and buying.** + +Furthermore, from the updated institutional data for Q1 present so far in Bloomberg, we see a couple institutions "derisking" and others actually buying more shares. Some institutions appear to be out, but a lot more are actually in. **Institutions are HOLDING so far, and perhaps actually buying.** + +https://preview.redd.it/bmfd4vj2acx61.png?width=2554&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf57f6fb1fea6df4fdecdf5e1d86713be9270091 + +Keep in mind that this is a **TINY SUBSET** of all the **Q1 13F updates that will be filed before 5/17**. **I will be closely watching everyday to see what the majority of institutions are doing.** + +I believe 5/17 will be a very important deadline for us to find the new data. + +So great, everyone is holding thus far, shorts keep shorting, and the spread and buyers are killing them. Lol. + +# After the Apex, shorts will drown. + +After the Apex, the downtrend breaks. Shorts will be forced to create a new downtrend. + +https://preview.redd.it/iyennh85bcx61.png?width=1943&format=png&auto=webp&s=d111a1b72b0add2ac7e8e72785c5e804bdc8f8db + +If they haven't given up, they'll likely react with a large short attack in an attempt to establish a downtrend. + +https://preview.redd.it/jl7wfta3dcx61.png?width=2225&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5d246531d1792e7a1580605d918f91f864c66b2 + +However, given that GME is hard to borrow, they can only short a limited amount of shares. And because people won't sell, the shorts will be stuck trying to short into an uptrend due to the excess of buyers. **This is the short staircase, the establishment of a new uptrend slightly below the Apex that will slowly choke the shorts to death.** Every time they try to bring it back down, they have to eventually cover on the Ask. Couple that with the buying pressure, their short attacks get weaker and weaker each time as this uptrend slaughters their P&L. + +Take Tesla as a historical example. + +A short staircase choked the shorts. They were like "oh fuck, I'm screwed, better cover". + +https://preview.redd.it/6s4ec3fvccx61.png?width=2062&format=png&auto=webp&s=570438c7eebe40fe5ec82ad578b1570031f78b5b + +&#x200B; + +Seriously. I see no fucking way out for the shorts. To create a downtrend, you need a continuous supply of shares to short. Or you need people to sell. **Both options are out of the question.** + +**The catalyst might actually be the chart itself. Not so much a fundamental change in the company. But a fundamental change like a new CEO can certainly light the fuse.** + +# Summary/TLDR + +Wedges form because Longs and Shorts both see a profitable strategy. + +Shorts are not able to profit because of the Spread and the excess of buyers. OBV is flat because everyone is buying and holding. + +The price might drop after the Apex, but an uptrend will form that will smother the shorts. Eventually they will panic cover. + +Bloomberg shows recent institutions are buying and holding on average. + +**After the Apex, the short thesis of being profitable from shorting becomes invalid (if not already).** + +**5/17 is an important date. It reveals the poker hand of the Longs as 13F Q1 filings are due by then. If they are still holding, then shorts are DOOMED.** + +The price isn't actually decreasing from these short attacks. **It's actually steadily increasing. The drops are an illusion.** + +&#x200B; + +Thank's for reading. I'm as bullish as ever on this stock. + +\-Warden +I made about 2 million after taxes on meme stonk calls in january and as of today I'm done working. I didn't quit earlier because teleworking wasn't bad but now that we have to go back into the office I decided to call it quits. It only took one day of commuting to realize how shitty it is that I used to be conditioned to wasting two hours of every weekday. + +My boss didn't believe me when I said I was done working until I said I'm not coming in after the 18th and if he doesn't want me to outprocess I won't. + +I don't have many plans going forward other than playing some games I've always wanted to get into. I've started an indoor garden and I've started reading books for enjoyment for the first time since high school. My biggest worry is that I will get bored and go find another job after a few years, but hopefully I can find some other cool stuff to do. + +As for what I'm going to do with my money, I'll just pay off my house (my only remaining debt) in full to bring my yearly expenses down to the 25-35k range. I'll slowly put most of it into an sp500 fund over the next 2-3 years. After digging into bonds I decided that I'd rather just have cash instead and use that to buy any major dips that come up. I want to keep my withdrawals in the 2-3% range since that seems to be best for making a nest egg last forever. + + +I'll probably do periodic updates since I imagine there are likely others like me who made a lot this year. + +PS: fuck health insurance costs. I shouldn't have to pay like $500 per month and have a 17k deductible for a two person household + +Edit: got a lot of questions about my positions. + +I cashed out my 401k of about 80k and went all in on gme calls far out of the money. I still have some gme shares but I don't count those as part of my current net worth and I'm holding like a proper ape. + +Edit 2: LOTS of people are commenting that I'll run out of money. While anything can happen, every study I've read came to the conclusion retirement funds are not expected to ever run out if someone only withdraws a few percent per year. The investment would be expected to actually outpace inflation and grow. + +Others have said that I'll be living on too little which I also don't agree with. I'm already living at these income levels since I've invested nearly all my spare income over the years (like the FI sub preaches). The only difference is now I don't have to go to work to exist anymore. + +Edit 3: +I paid all my taxes already, the two mil figure is after taxes. +I only found Economics Explained, and after watching 2 videos and skimming through the video library, it became clear to me, that this person had some strong opinions about anti taxation, which doesn't do the width of economic literature justice, and isn't very scientific. + +More specifically I am specialised in Spatial and Transport Economics and would love to see people talking about this as a quick way to explain to people what I mean. +Before I start i know this will be downvoted to oblivion. I just want to post it here because i have nobody else to talk to. For the past few days I have been rage trading trying to recover from an almost 20k loss. I struggle with severe clinical depression due to a lot of other shit going on in my life which clouded my judgement. I was stuck in a losing position on gbp,i expected a heavy drop after the vote results. I saw an opportunity to make back the 20k and much more in a few minutes if the vote went my way and I added more to the losing trade, a horribly stupid fucking idea now that i think about it. It obviously did not drop. I was pushed into a loss even greater than I had before. While this wouldn't have been much of a problem as i had plenty of equity left(i trade(d) for a living), it shot up even harder and the gap skipped over my stoploss completely and margin called me. I saw my life drastically change in a matter of seconds. I have 3 dollars left in my account. i have no way of paying for rent, car insurance, car payments, phone, and a large amount of hospital bills  and any other possible expenses , all the time i spent building that account from the ground up, blood, sweat, sleepless nights, extreme stress, all gone in 20 seconds, along with it went my career and savings. I have to face the possibility that i may be evicted within 2 weeks and have most of everything i lease repossessed. Life was ok 2 hours ago. Now there's a good chance i will be homeless soon. I don't know why im posting this. i just want you guys to be careful. please don't do the stupid shit i did, please trade smart. please dont be greedy and take what you have for granted because it can be gone at any second .have a good day everyone and i wish you guys the best of luck on your trading journey. +43.4 % of Americans believe they have some chance of owning a home. The other 56 percent believe the American dream is dead to them. That is the first time in the history of the survey that the reading is below 50%. + +As more Americans are forced into renting, rents go up. Most housing that is being built is multi family rentals owned by large corporations that are borrowing from the Fed at very low interest rates. They're not even building condos and town homes for people to get their first step up on the housing ladder anymore. + +[https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/3273343-more-americans-losing-confidence-they-will-ever-own-a-home/?msclkid=fb5d992ac03c11ecb4a31f84259ea46e](https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/3273343-more-americans-losing-confidence-they-will-ever-own-a-home/?msclkid=fb5d992ac03c11ecb4a31f84259ea46e) +In my first year of real estate I've had many duties annoyances. + +1. Setting up Tenants payments(normal) +2. Pipe exploded in bathroom +3. Flooding foundation wall +4. Section 8 housing annoyances. Long paper work processing, inspections... +5. Appliance repairs +6. Roof repairs +7. HVAC repairs + +This all ran me 10k and a lot of my time. This is a warning to all people entering real estate. I'm happy I bought the property but there is absolutely no free lunch here. +EDIT: [Wiki now exists](/r/thetagang/wiki) and has more info not in this post. + +# Overview + +### What is this place? What is theta gang? + +[/r/thetagang](/r/thetagang) is a sub for traders who are interested in selling options. + +### An option? What's that? + +Options are derivative financial instruments, which means they derive their value from an underlying, such a stock or commodity. Options are a contract in which the buyer has the right but not the obligation to buy or sell the underlying at an agreed upon price on or by a certain date. + +All options have an expiration date after which they stop trading. Because they eventually expire they are also wasting assets, which means they lose extrinsic value as time passes. This is where theta gang comes in. + +### Uh huh... I don't really understand anything you just said, but I'm curious, why would anyone want to trade options? + +There are two main reason why someone would want to trade options: hedging and speculation. + +Consider an investor who buys a stock but is worried about a price decline. They can purchase options (put contracts) to protect themselves if the stock's price were to fall. And if they think a stock is overvalued and want to short it, they can purchase options (call contracts) to protect them should the price rise. In both cases the investor is hedging their trade because they are trying to profit from the stock and not the options. + +The other reason is speculation. Options allow someone to make a directional bet on a stock without buying or selling the actual stock (the underlying). + +### Why would someone bother with trading options when they can just trade the underlying? + +Leverage. Equity option contracts are standardized and each contract (also called a "lot") is for 100 shares of the underlying. It's a way to have exposure to the underlying without needing the capital to buy or sell 100 shares for each contract. In other words a smaller amount of money controls a higher valued asset. + +Options allow a buyer to make amazing profits. If a trade goes incredibly well, they could see profits anywhere from 100% to 10,000% (a few are even lucky enough to get 100,000%). And despite being leveraged the most amount of money they can lose is what they paid to buy the options. This is known as the premium and is paid to the seller. + +The option buyer's losses are limited to the premium and their profits are potentially unlimited, whereas for the seller the losses are potentially unlimited and the profits are limited to the premium. + +### WHAT?!? Why on Earth would anyone sell options with a payout like that? Especially when you could become rich so easily? + +If only it were that simple. + +The reality is most options expire worthless. If you buy options not only do you have to get the directional bet right, but you have to get the timing right as well. + +If you buy a stock and it goes nowhere for a while and then suddenly takes off in price, you make money from this trade. Not necessarily for options. They eventually expire and if the stock soars after the option expires, tough luck. You get nothing and lose all your money. + +All of the incredible gains you see with options happen because the underlying made a huge move in a relatively short period. In other words, you have to take an immense amount of risk to make a boatload of money. It's far more likely that the options expire worthless and you lose everything. + +And if getting the direction and timing right wasn't hard enough, it gets even worse. Options are priced to lose. Recall that options are a wasting asset. An option slowly loses extrinsic value as time passes. This is referred to as theta decay. If the underlying doesn't move in price fast enough (in the right direction, of course) to offset the loss in theta, you lose money. + +This leads to an interesting outcome: an options buyer can be right and still lose money, and an options seller can be wrong and still make money. + +### WHAT?!?! How can someone be wrong in a trade and still make money? + +The value an option has can be split into two parts: intrinsic and extrinsic. + +Remember how options have an agreed upon price to trade the underlying at? That's called the strike price. As an example, if a call option has a strike of $10, and the stock is trading at $10.50, the option has $0.50 of intrinsic value. + +The extrinsic value is also known as the time value of an option. It's the risk premium the seller receives for taking on the risk of selling options. Using the same example as earlier, if the option is trading for $1.10, the extrinsic value is $0.60. + +The intrinsic and extrinsic value combined are the option's premium, and the seller receives this premium in full. So if at the date of the option's expiration the stock is trading at $10.70, the option is worth $0.70. The seller's $0.40 profit is the buyer's loss. And if the underlying is at $10 or less on expiration? It expires worthless and the buyer loses 100%. + +### This sounds too good to be true. If most options expire worthless why doesn't everyone sell options and get rich? + +If only it were that simple. + +It's true options are priced to lose and that most expire worthless. What is a wasting asset for the buyer is a wasting liability for the seller. However, it's still a liability and sometimes that liability can end up being a real loser. + +It's not just a matter of a win/loss ratio. The magnitude of the wins vs. losses must be considered. The most an option seller can make is the premium, but they can lose far more than that if the underlying moves against them. It's possible for a seller's loss to be multiples of the premium they received for selling an option. If an option seller is really unfortunate, they can experience a loss on a single trade that wipes out months of profits. + +There's no easy money to be made trading options. + +# The Greeks + +Let's pretend that I know what options are. How do the Greeks apply to option sellers? + +### Delta + +Delta has multiple meanings: + +1. How much the option's price changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. + +2. The option's equivalent of a position in the underlying (a directional bet). + +3. The probability the option expires in-the-money. + +Definition #2 is important to understand when making delta neutral bets (discussed later). These profit from a decrease in volatility along with collecting theta. It's possible to construct a trade where a movement in the underlying does not change the position's value (or by much). + +Definition #3 is an approximation. Many option sellers like to sell out-of-the-money options with a delta of 0.30, which means they have an approximately 30% chance of expiring ITM. + +### Gamma + +Delta is not a constant. An option's delta changes as the underlying's price changes. Gamma measures how much delta changes relative to a change in the underlying's price. Option buyers have positive gamma, whereas sellers have negative gamma. + +Long (positive) gamma works in favor of the buyer. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and profits accelerate. As the underlying moves further out-of-the-money, gamma decreases delta and losses decelerate. + +Short (negative) gamma works against the seller. As the underlying moves further ITM, gamma increases delta and losses accelerate. As the underlying moves further OTM, gamma decreases delta and profits decelerate. + +Gamma is bad news for sellers. Theta gang has always been at war with gamma gang. Gamma is also the reason that delta hedging is so difficult when it comes to being delta neutral. + +### Theta + +Beloved theta. The namesake of [/r/thetagang](/r/thetagang). It's why we're here all here and why you're reading this. + +Theta represents the time value of an option. It's the extrinsic value of an option, and as each day ticks away the time value decreases a little. That amount is determined by theta. Theta decay is nonlinear and accelerates as expiration approaches. + +The goal of an option seller is to profit from collecting theta. One could sell an option that's ITM and profit from the underlying moving OTM, but that's not a theta bet, that's a directional bet. ITM options also have less time value than at-the-money options. ATM options have the most time value and so the most theta to collect, but are at a greater risk of expiring ITM compared to OTM options. + +The more days to expiration an option has the slower the theta decay. 30-45 DTE is a very popular period to sell. Others prefer weeklies. + +### Vega + +Vega measures how much an option's price changes relative to a change in implied volatility. + +The IV of an option is the market's estimate of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. The higher the IV the greater the time value of an option, which means options with higher IVs are more expensive. + +Option buyers want to buy when volatility is low because options are cheaper. Sellers want to sell when volatility is high because options are more expensive. + +The best time to sell options is during the gut-wrenching periods when no one wants to sell because volatility is so high (such as the March 2020 crash). Options become extremely expensive and there are juicy premiums to collect. Look for large spikes in IV. + +### Vomma + +Vomma (or volga) is a much lesser known Greek. It measures how much an option's vega changes as the implied volatility changes. + +Out-of-the-money options have the most vomma. This detail will be discussed later in a horror story of option selling gone wrong. + +### Rho + +Rho measures how much an option's price changes as interest rate changes. + +No one cares about rho anymore thanks to interest rates being stuck at rock bottom for over a decade. + +# Volatility + +### What are some basic details about volatility that are important to know? + +Both option buyers and sellers care about volatility (at least they should). Buyers want to purchase when IV is low and sellers want to sell when IV is high. + +An option's IV in isolation does not actually tell you if IV is high or low. It must be compared to the historical IV for that option. Two popular methods are IV rank and IV percentile. + +For example, if options on XYZ have an IV of 35% and options on ABC have an IV of 45%, on the surface ABC has higher IV. But if XYZ has an IV rank of 75% and ABC only 40%, XYZ's IV is actually higher relative to its historical IV and may be better suited for selling. + +There are different ways of measuring volatility and it's important to not mix them up: + +* **Historical volatility:** This is how volatile the underlying actually was. It doesn't tell you anything about the future volatility of the underlying. This is also called realized volatility. + +* **Implied volatility:** This is the market's prediction of how volatile the underlying will be in the future. It could be greater than, less than, or about the same as the historical volatility. It's only an estimate and can easily be wrong. + +* **Historical implied volatility:** This is simply the IV of an option over time. When you're looking at historical data and overlay HV with HIV, you can see how right or wrong the market was estimating future volatility. + +* **Implied volatility rank**: IV rank is calculated over a period of 52 weeks. The formula is 100 * (current IV - 52 week low IV) / (52 week high IV - 52 week low IV). + +* **Implied volatility percentile:** This tells you the percentage of time HIV has been lower than current IV. The formula is # of days with lower IV than today / # of trading days in a year (252 is normally used). + +### What is volatility skew? + +To understand what volatility skew is we have to go back to the 1970s. + +You may have heard of a theoretical options pricing model called the Black-Scholes or Black-Scholes-Merton model. This model was published in 1973 and became very popular. It was widely adopted in the options market. + +The original Black-Scholes model predicts that the IV curve is flat among the various strike prices with the same expiration. It didn't matter if the strike price was OTM, ATM, or ITM, they all had the same IV. + +IV stayed this way until the stock market crash of 1987, where the DJIA dropped 22.6% in a single day. This single event changed the options market forever. The IV curve was no longer flat but instead demonstrated a volatility smile ([conceptual graph](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile)). Strike prices further from ATM started trading at higher IVs. + +The crash was a gut punch to investors that taught them extreme moves in markets were more common than you would expect, and options started being priced accordingly. But the volatility smile is not symmetrical, it's actually skewed. + +OTM puts have a higher IV than OTM calls. This is due to markets falling much faster than they rise (they take the escalator up and the elevator down). This causes more demand for OTM puts to protect long portfolio positions. Most investors are long the market, and some will sell covered calls which increases the supply for OTM calls. + +Note that this is true for equity markets. Commodity markets behave differently. Normally there is a floor in commodity prices (although for commodities with storage or delivery constraints, as we learned in April 2020 they can dip below zero) and IV is higher for OTM calls compared to puts, because commodities can suddenly spike in price due to supply side shocks. + +In equity markets IV is inversely correlated with price, that is, IV rises when prices fall (reverse or negative skew). This isn't necessarily true for commodities where rising prices can mean an increase in IV (forward or positive skew). + +# The story of James "Rogue Wave" Cordier of OptionSellers.com: A tragic lesson in how not to sell options + +James Cordier is a former money manager who has the dubious honor of not only losing all the money of his clients by selling options, but even leaving them with a debt because the losses were so staggering. + +James was a proponent of selling options and had even written a book about it. He had a now defunct website, OptionSellers.com, which targeted individuals with a high net worth. His strategy was simple: he was selling naked options on crude oil and natural gas. For years he made he made his clients plenty of money. Things were great. Until they weren't... and the results were catastrophic. His clients lost everything and even owed money to their broker, INTL FCStone. Where did James go so wrong? + +James was selling naked strangles on natural gas and crude oil. In November 2018, both markets moved against him, but the real losses came from his naked natgas calls. He sent an email with the subject line "Catastrophic Loss Event" to his clients on November 15th, dropping the bombshell that not only was all their money gone, but they may be facing a negative balance. + +If you look at a [chart of natgas](https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=w1) you can see why his accounts blew up. Natgas experienced a huge spike in November and his broker liquidated their positions at an absolutely massive loss. + +What mistakes did he make and what can we learn from them? + +**1. Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller** + +Part of his strategy involved selling deep OTM naked calls on natgas (call leg of short strangles). Deep OTM options typically don't sell for very much, so in order to collect more money you sell a bunch of them to make it worth the trade. + +This is a terrible idea and no one should ever sell a bunch of deep OTM naked options. It can work great for years, until one day it blows up your account. In order to collect a decent premium you have to overleverage yourself. This is extremely risky and you will eventually experience a major loss one day. The odds are not in your favor. + +The underlying does not even need to cross the strike price for you to lose money. The underlying's price simply needs to move significantly closer to the strike price and you'll be deep in the red. This is made even worse if volatility spikes, which increases the option's price and your losses (discussed in detail in the next point). + +Notice what happened the following months: natgas prices crashed back to what they were before the spike. Had James not overleveraged his positions, he could've ridden the losses out to a profit. In fact, all those options probably would've expired worthless. + +There is another reason not to sell deep OTM naked options. Imagine you're a speculator with a small account (e.g., [/r/wallstreetbets](/r/wallstreetbets)). They want to trade but they can't afford to buy ATM or slightly OTM options, so what do they do? Buy deep OTM options, bidding the price up. When a market moves big and the small-time speculators want to trade it, all they can afford are the cheap options, which are deep OTM. This is bad news when you're short them. + +**2. Not understanding the relationship between price and volatility** + +Remember how for commodities volatility can be positively correlated with price? Natgas is one of them, and when the price spiked so did volatility. James did not understand the consequences of this. + +When you are short options, you have negative vega. As the price spiked so did volatility, and the short vega position piled up his losses in addition to being short delta. + +But vega is not a constant. We finally get to discuss vomma now. Vomma measures how much an option's vega changes as IV changes. In other words, as IV increases, so does vega thanks to vomma. When you're short vega and vomma, this is bad news. + +Remember which options have the highest vomma? That's right, OTM. So as IV increased, not only did his losses increase due to rising IV, but vega itself started increasing thanks to vomma, further accelerating his losses. + +He got wrecked four different ways: being on the wrong side of delta, gamma adding to delta, being on the wrong side of vega, and vomma adding to vega. + +**3. A total absence of risk management** + +Risk management is essential when it comes to trading, and selling options is no exception. Selling naked options can expose you to extreme risks, and to ignore it is simply reckless. It's more important to avoid a huge loss than to make a huge profit, because all it takes is one big loss on a trade to make recovering from it impossible, ending your career in theta gang. + +Tail risk is a very real concern in trading, and those "rare" events actually happen more frequently than traders expect (fat tails). Look at a price chart of natgas over the past twenty years. You can see random spikes sprinkled throughout the chart. James never stopped to think, what would happen to the value of my positions if natgas were to suddenly spike in price, which I know has happened in the past, and will happen again someday? How could I protect myself against this scenario? + +It's pretty obvious that if a one-day or even few weeks move manages to blow up your account and completely undo years of profits, you have zero risk management in place. This stems from not understanding how the natgas market works, and trading it with no regard to risk. + +Selling naked calls on natgas is a terrible strategy because natgas can have sudden price spikes, and IV will spike with it. A much better strategy would've been selling a call backspread. You sell an ATM or OTM call, and you buy two or more calls that are further OTM. That way if natgas did spike your losses are limited, and you might even turn a profit on the spike. + +Spend the time necessary to learn about the underlying. And don't neglect risk management. If you're going to sell options, you absolutely must understand how the underlying behaves and its relationship with volatility, otherwise you cannot have proper risk controls in place. + +# Miscellaneous + +### What are some popular option selling strategies? + +The most popular would be covered calls and cash secured puts. + +CCs involve selling OTM calls on a stock you own. The short call position is covered by owning the underlying, hence the name (opposite of naked). A single equity options contract is for 100 shares, so an investor sells one call for every 100 shares they own. If the stock price rises beyond the strike price, the seller keeps the premium, but the options will get exercised and the shares called away. They sell them at the strike price, missing out on the extra gains beyond the strike. The seller still makes money on the sale, just not as much as they would have if they sold them at market price. If the stock grinds sideways, the options expire worthless. And if the stock falls in price, the options will also expire worthless, but the seller will lose money on their long stock position. Chances are they will lose more money than the premium they collected from selling the CCs. + +A CSP is a naked put that's sold either ATM or OTM with enough money in the account to cover the stock purchase if the option gets exercised. If the stock grinds sideways or rises in price, the puts expire worthless. However, if the stock falls in price the options will get exercised, and the seller will be forced to buy the stock from the options buyer at the strike price, most likely suffering a loss greater than the premium they received. + +A CC has the same downside risk as a naked put. If the stock declines in either scenario the investor risks losing far more money than the premium received. If you are comfortable with the risk of selling CCs you should also be comfortable with the risk of selling CSPs. However, you can lose more money in the CSP scenario if you buy back the put before expiration if IV rises enough, vs. holding it to expiration. + +Selling a CSP always means selling a naked put. It is not a covered put because you have cash to buy the stock. Whether or not you have enough money in the account to buy the shares at the strike price is irrelevant. A CP means you are also short the underlying, hence it is covered. It's the same idea as a CC, except it has unlimited risk due to there being no theoretical limit the price the stock could increase to, whereas a long stock position can't go below zero (not a guarantee for certain commodities). + +Other common strategies are wheeling and volatility crush. + +The wheel is similar to selling a strangle but not quite the same. You sell CSPs on a stock you wouldn't be opposed to owning, and in the unfortunate case of being assigned, you then sell CCs to recoup your losses. If you've been selling CSPs for a while you may still be net up when assigned, but if the stock craters you're looking at a significant loss. You hope the stock slowly climbs while selling CCs, but if the stock suddenly spikes your shares may get called away and you miss out on recovering your losses on the upside. + +There are variations to the wheel before being assigned. A jade lizard is selling an OTM call spread where the max loss on it is less than the premium collected from selling the CSP. Ideally the stock will trade in between the short put and call strikes and all options expire worthless. You can also trade a ratio put spread instead of just a put. + +The volatility crush trade is a delta neutral strategy. It profits not from a change in the underlying's price, but from IV decreasing. It's very popular right before earnings. IV on a stock can spike just before an earnings report is released due to uncertainty (vol rush). Unless you have insider information, you can only guess what the results will be. After the report is released, IV crashes because the uncertainty is gone (vol crush). Everyone knows the results. + +You find a company who's about to report earnings and the IV on their options has spiked. You then sell expensive ATM calls, and because ATM options have a delta of about 0.5 you buy 50 shares for every call sold. Your net delta is zero (delta neutral) because you've offset the negative delta from the short call position by buying shares which gives you positive delta. By hedging your delta you've eliminated directional risk. After earnings are released, IV craters and you buy back the options at a cheaper price and sell your shares. + +In theory this sounds like an easy way to profit. In reality it's not due to our archnemesis gamma gang. Delta is not a constant and as the underlying's price changes so does delta. If the stock soars after earnings, the call option's delta will increase and your delta exposure will become increasingly negative as the stock rises in price. If the stock tanks, your delta exposure will become increasing positive as the stock falls in price. In either scenario you start losing money from your changing delta position, and the amount you make from IV decreasing must be greater, otherwise you lose money overall on the trade. + +You can try to nudge your delta in a direction to hedge against this. If you're bullish on the stock you can overweight your exposure and buy more shares so that you have a positive delta. If you're bearish you can underweight your exposure and buy fewer shares so that you have a negative delta. If you're correct, good news for you. But if you're wrong, you lose more money than if you were delta neutral. + +Then you have a plethora of spread trades, such as vertical, horizontal, diagonal, and ratio, some with creative names. There are far too many to cover in this guide in detail. All of them have at least two legs (each leg is a component of the options trade) to the trade where you are both long and short options. + +### How does assignment work? + +There are two main types of option styles: European and American. European options can be exercised only on the expiration date. American options can be exercised at any time before (and of course on) the expiration date. + +When an option is exercised, the Options Clearing Corporation randomly selects a member firm that is short the option, and the firm uses an exchange-approved method to select a customer that is short the option. The OCC processes all assignments after market close, and because it processes closing buys before assignments, there is no possibility of assignment if you buy back your short position during the day's trading hours. + +An option buyer can exercise their option even if it makes no sense financially and they would lose money. It's their right to do so and you are obligated to fulfill it if assigned. Even if an option expires worthless it can still be exercised. The buyer may be speculating that major news gets released after hours (some options trade until 4:15 PM ET) and when the market opens again the underlying has moved favorably and their gamble paid off. To avoid risking this scenario simply close out the day of expiration. + +Only about 7% of options get exercised and the majority occur close to expiration. This is because options still have extrinsic value before they expire, and once exercised the buyer loses the extrinsic value. It makes more sense for them to sell it. + +Be aware that if you are assigned you may see a large negative balance or buying power in your account. This may be because the underlying stock trade has not settled yet. It normally takes T + 2 (trade date plus two business days) to settle. Settlement means an exchange of money and securities. Payment is made from the buyer's account to the seller's, and the seller's securities are transferred to the buyer's account. The other reason would be the value of the new stock position. If you have a small account and are now long or short hundreds or thousands of shares, the market value could far exceed the cash value of your account. You'll be forced to close out by your broker. Once either the trade settles or you close out the large negative balance disappears. + +### What are some scenarios I can expect assignment, especially early assignment? + +If an option expires ITM you can expect it to be exercised. Unless instructed otherwise, the OCC will automatically exercise any option that expires at least $0.01 ITM. + +Deep ITM options about to expire are candidates for being exercised. They start behaving like the stock itself since there's zero real chance of them not expiring ITM. They have no extrinsic value and in fact may trade slightly below their intrinsic value (at a discount to parity, parity being the intrinsic value). This is because no one really has any incentive to trade the option anymore, especially when they could trade the stock instead, which has more liquidity. A market maker would agree to buy it at a discount and at the same time open a position on the stock and exercise the option, profiting from the discount arbitrage. For example, XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading at $4.95. A MM buys the call while simultaneously shorting 100 shares, exercises the option and collects the risk-free profit of $0.05: + +(50 - 45) - 4.95 = 0.05 + +Selling spreads is a very common theta gang strategy, so let's examine the case of early assignment and assignment after expiration. + +You sold a 50/55 vertical call spread for $1.40 on XYZ that's trading at $53. It expires in a few days but for whatever reason the buyer decided to exercise early and you were assigned. You're now short 100 shares at $50 while still long the 55 call. Because vertical spreads are risk defined trades, this isn't a big deal. You're still long the 55 call, so you have upside protection which will cap your losses at $360 (500-140) should the stock move past $55. You could take the risk of riding it out and hoping the stock falls or you can close out the trade, accept your losses and move on. + +The other scenario is assignment at expiration. This is actually the more dangerous case of the two. Imagine the same circumstances except it's expiration day (Friday). The stock closes at $53, the short call expires ITM, and the long call expires worthless. The short call is exercised and you're assigned. Because you no longer have upside protection anymore, this is not a defined risk trade but instead undefined. You're short the stock over the weekend and no one knows what the opening price will be Monday. If major news gets published Sunday the stock could soar. Or it could crater. This is not the kind of risk theta gang likes to take. You should always close out of your short options on the day of expiration if there's a real chance of them expiring ITM, especially when your long options will expire OTM. Otherwise at that point you're now delta gang. + +If both the short and long options are ITM at expiration, the most you can lose is the spread minus the premium received. You might as well close out to avoid the hassle of being assigned and exercising your long options. + +The specter of early assignment gets raised quite a bit around the time dividends are paid. The scenarios are different for calls and puts. + +You may have read that if the time value of an ITM call is less than the dividend, the call is at risk of being exercised early. This is not because the investor will make money from exercising. Let's illustrate with an example. To be paid a dividend you must own the stock before the ex-dividend date. Call owners do not receive dividends. If you buy the shares on or after the ex-date you won't be paid the dividend, so the call owner will exercise it the day before the ex-date. + +XYZ is trading at $50, and a 45 call is trading for $5.25. It's paying a $1 dividend and the ex-date is tomorrow so the buyer exercises the call. They're now long XYZ at $45. The ex-date arrives, the dividend is paid, and the stock is discounted by the amount of the dividend, and is trading at $49. They sell and wind up losing $0.25. What happened? Simply add up the numbers: + +(49 - 45) + 1 - 5.25 = -0.25 + +Whenever you exercise an option you throw away the extrinsic value. It doesn't matter how large the dividend is, since the stock's price is discounted by it on the ex-date. This is a losing trade. The only way the trade could make money is if the stock isn't discounted by the full amount. Sometimes this happens (other news gets published) but this is nothing more than a gamble if attempted. It's not an arbitrage opportunity. + +In fact, as the ex-date approaches you may see ITM call options trading at parity. This occurs because the stock's price will be discounted by the dividend, and so the option's intrinsic value will decrease as well. Buyers don't want to be left holding it going into the ex-date because they're going to lose money, so the selling pressure drives down the option's price to parity. It may even trade at a discount, presenting the earlier discount arbitrage opportunity. + +If the corresponding put with the same strike price as the call is trading for a price less than the dividend minus interest, then the call would be exercised and you would be assigned early. The trader long the call would exercise their call and buy the put, since this has the effect of recreating the same trade, except they receive the dividend. + +It's actually puts that offer a dividend arbitrage opportunity if the time value is less than the dividend. Using the example from earlier, a 55 put is trading at $5.25. You buy 100 shares of the stock at $50. Ex-date arrives, the stock is discounted to $49. You exercise the put, selling the stock for $55, collect the $1 dividend and profit a risk-free $0.75. Add up the numbers again: + +(55 - 50) + 1 - 5.25 = 0.75 + +You may already be guessing what happens to ITM puts as the ex-date approaches. Their price increases due to buying pressure, since the option's intrinsic value is about to increase by the dividend's amount. Once the time value at least matches the dividend the arbitrage opportunity no longer exists. + +One other scenario where you may be assigned is when the underlying is trading close to the option's strike price on expiration day. You don't know if it will expire ITM or not. This is called pin risk. What should you do if you're short? Close out. It's not worth the risk if the underlying moves adversely after market close and the options are now ITM. Just close out. + +### Should I close out of a position after collecting most of the premium earlier than expected? + +This is a good idea. A lot of people follow a rule where if they've collected at least 50-80% of the premium they close out of the trade and move on to the next. They especially follow the rule when it happens much sooner than expected. + +Collecting the last tiny bit of premium isn't worth what you're risking (a relatively large amount of money to make a small amount). You're picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. What will happen one day is the underlying will make a dramatic adverse move, eliminating all of your profit and even putting you at a loss. You'll be cursing yourself for being greedy and not closing out earlier. + +A lot of brokers will even let you close out of a short options trade for no commission if you can buy it back for only five or ten cents. + +### My position moved against me. What can I do about it? + +You have a few choices. + +**1. Close out** + +Close the trade. Accept your losses and move on. How do you decide if it's a good idea to close? Ask yourself, if you didn't already have this position would you do it now? Would you open the position now given the current price and market circumstances? If not, close out. + +You're going to end up on the wrong side of trades sometimes. It happens to everyone. Sometimes closing out is the right idea. Other times it's not. You can't predict the future, so don't beat yourself up when you make the wrong decision. But always be mindful of risk management and keep your losses small. + +**2. Ride it out** + +It's not unusual for option prices to spike only to collapse in price later on. If you haven't overleveraged yourself you have the funds available to ride out the trade. If the answer to the earlier question about opening the trade now is yes, it's reasonable to ride it out. You might even consider selling more contracts, but remember to never overleverage. + +Just make sure the HAPI (hope and pray index) isn't high, otherwise it's a sign you should close out. + +**3. Roll** + +Rolling is a good idea when you think the trade in the short term is a bad idea, but long term will make money. You close out of your existing position and open a new one. This is ideally done simultaneously so you don't trade into the position one leg at a time, risking a poorer fill on price (slippage) or only getting only a partial execution and your positions are now wrong. + +Rolling up is rolling to a higher strike price. Rolling down is rolling to a lower strike price. And rolling out or forward is rolling to a later expiration date. Typically you roll out, and possibly up or down. Whatever you decide, the goal is to roll to a new position that you can sell for more than the loss on the old position. That way you can at least recover your losses, and if you're fortunate, still turn a profit. + +### I'm doing great! I'm winning on all my trades collecting that sweet, sweet, theta. I want to sell even MOAR! + +Slow down there, speed racer. + +The second worst thing that happens to new traders is they have a series of winning trades (the worst being they lose all their money). They become overconfident, think they have it all figured out, and place a trade that's way too big for their account. They of course don't realize how clueless they are, discover to their horror the trade was completely wrong, and end up digging through the remains of their now smoldering account. + +You've made a bunch of winning trades. Great. Don't let it go to your head. Don't start scaling up massively simply because you've been winning lately. A better strategy is to risk a fixed percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your account on each trade. As you make more money the dollar value of each trade increases but the percentage stays the same. That way when a trade ends up being a loser, which will happen, the damage is minor and you can still recover. + +Theta gang is not a get-rich-quick scheme. If you're going to commit to this you're going to be doing it long-term, which means slowly making money. + +### I like to sell options on stock indices like the S&P 500. Anything I should know? + +SPY is extremely popular for trading options but there is a much better alternative: SPX. Why? + +* **Contract size:** Both SPY and SPX options are for 100 shares, but SPX trades the full price of the S&P, so ten SPY contracts equal the notional value of one SPX contract. This cuts down commission costs by a factor of ten. + +* **Cash settlement:** SPX is cash settled so your account is either credited or debited and you never have to deal with any shares of the underlying. + +* **No risk of assignment:** Because SPX is cash settled there's no possibility of assignment. You'll never have to worry about early assignment. + +* **Favorable tax treatment:** SPX options are 1256 contracts, which means they have different tax treatment. It does not matter how long you hold 1256 contracts for, whether less than a minute or over a year, all trades are taxed the same: 60% of gains are treated as long-term and 40% short-term. Theta gang trades are almost always short term (one year or less), so this is the biggest reason why you should trade SPX over SPY. You'll get to keep more of your profits. + +* **Minis are available:** If you want to trade SPX options but don't have enough money, fear not. XSP is 1/10th the size of SPX, so it's the same size as SPY but has all of the benefits of SPX. The only downside is it's not as liquid. + +If you like to trade options on other indexes (or commodities), you should consider futures options. Both futures and futures options are 1256 contracts and receive favorable tax treatment. + +EDIT: Hit character limit, rest of post [here](/r/thetagang/comments/ifrnu1/rthetagang_needs_a_faqwiki_so_i_wrote_one/g2papx1/) +The Japanese public debt to GDP ratio is set to reach \~250% of GDP after all the COVID-relief spending is done. + +This is higher than any other country on Earth. How can it stay so high? + +If Japan can stay stable with debt so high, does it mean that other countries can as well. +# 0. Preface + +Hello apes. I am not a financial advisor and I am not providing financial advice. + +I've been getting a few PMs and comment replies asking about ComputerShare, and there's definitely FUD around it. I get why there can be FUD, but hopefully this will dispel your doubts. + +I thought I'd drop in and compile my thoughts - as well as borrow from other posts. In my opinion it's a bit crazy that there's so much negativity around the potential key to the MOASS. This isn't really "DD" but I thought I'd mark it as such anyways. Mods, feel free to change it. + +Sorry that this might look like a rehashed post since there are **tons** on the subject right now. DRS is too important of a subject to pass up, and some info within this post I haven't really seen in recent posts. So hopefully there's some new stuff here for skeptics. + +[Me irl](https://preview.redd.it/retmiilm7zn71.png?width=1195&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ba728888e48e446bf823d3020975f10eb5cfbb) + +# 1. Direct Registering Shares (DRS) + +The act of Direct Registering Shares (DRS) is taking a security and registering that security **in your name** which is then held on the books of the transfer agent or the company (GameStop). + +DRS is waay better than having "Street Name" Registration, which is where the security you buy through Fidelity/TD Ameritrade/Webull is under **their** name and held on their books. If the float of GameStop is "Street Name" registered, then: + +* It allows brokers to trade with one another in ex-clearing for these securities and produce fails on their books. They have a massive pool of float to borrow from to give you "shares" in your account and they can continue to "reasonably locate" shares to reset their fails. +* The brokers don't have to purchase a share on the market when you send a buy order. If they can "reasonably locate" a share due to the float not being locked up, then they can essentially give you an IOU. + * This is what happened to CMKM Diamonds that Dr. T has been talking about for a while. Brokers wouldn't even buy the damn shares but investors were credited with "shares" on their account. Bam. One way that phantom shares are introduced. +* It allows shorters to continue to borrow from a massive pool of float and short the stock because they can "reasonably locate" shares, even if there is a plethora of phantom shares in existence. To the DTCC and the broker dealers, the shares are there and available! +* As long as a massive portion of the float stays "Street Name" Registered, the float isn't locked up and they can continue to stall the game, dragging the price. + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/reportspubs\/investor-publications\/investorpubsholdsechtm.html](https://preview.redd.it/2gv0vj9a2zn71.png?width=727&format=png&auto=webp&s=43fa8bb8c6aa0d1d1a5dabac2fd60a8dd56e8862) + +DRS is a solution to the bullshit they're performing to suppress the stock and continue to produce phantom shares: + +* When the security is registered **in your name** on the books of the transfer agent or GameStop, it chunks down the remaining float. + * Think of institutions registering millions of share ownership and reducing the float. By DRSing shares, shareholders effectively do this and officially reduce the float. +* With less float, the broker-dealers, shorters, and market makers have less power. They'll be more constrained when it comes to "reasonably locating" shares. As the float gets locked up towards 0 shares in float, everything goes to shit: + * The brokers can no longer reasonably locate shares for you when you place an order. All shares have been purchased and the buy button effectively shuts off. (Assuming other retail isn't selling to you). This method of phantom share creation shuts down. + * Shorters cannot locate shares to borrow to short. This method of phantom share creation shuts down. + * Broker-dealers and others cannot locate shares to reset FTDs in ex-clearing. FTDs can skyrocket, finally triggering Reg Sho closeout obligations. + +But as long as the majority of the float remains **"Street Name" Registered** rather than "**Direct" Registered**, they can continue producing phantom shares and resetting fails. Essentially nullifying all buy pressure from retail. + +# 2. ComputerShare + +The good news is that Direct Registering of Shares is a process that is provided through "transfer agents" for companies. So, it's possible for retail to register the shares in their name and chunk down the float. + +[https:\/\/www.securitieslawyer101.com\/2017\/transfer-agent-direct-registration-system-drs\/](https://preview.redd.it/kdr233pd2zn71.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd816467ec32d95f5ef4795bf6d643c61e74632c) + +In fact, that is the **ONLY** way to DRS. It **must** be from the designated transfer agent of the company. + +And who is the designated transfer agent for GameStop? ComputerShare. This is directly from a SEC filing for GameStop: + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1326380\/000119312521126940\/d122967ddef14a.htm](https://preview.redd.it/6l8z7ak33zn71.png?width=1041&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d560d99e548615a30ce135f5da75961b16b07f3) + +In order to DRS GameStop shares it has to be through ComputerShare. They are the only ones who can perform the DRS service to register shares in your name on their records. + +There is FUD about ComputerShare performing a buyout of Wells Fargo Trust, but that's really irrelevant. Or that they have negative reviews, CEO sold stock, so forth. That's pretty damn normal for an entity as large as themselves. + +ComputerShare provides transfer agent services for many companies of all sizes. I'm sure the shareholders of the following companies are freaking out that ComputerShare is their trading agent! + +Check out who also uses ComputerShare: + +[Microsoft](https://preview.redd.it/dv6djnwk2zn71.png?width=731&format=png&auto=webp&s=797f60018e75dc069418b60602f26060cb2ea514) + +[Apple](https://preview.redd.it/3lbv7twm2zn71.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=b533356faeb9a41f1c0f217c52bcf5eb765b1fc5) + +[Amazon](https://preview.redd.it/co52htvp2zn71.png?width=740&format=png&auto=webp&s=67cbf5829180b5f17d6447482e1870e233882e6c) + +In fact, ComputerShare is the transfer agent for the plurality of the market, at 37.4%: + +[https:\/\/blog.auditanalytics.com\/transfer-agent-market-share-2020\/](https://preview.redd.it/bol4binf2zn71.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=6690d1dd08bd00b10eab09f5982f1298db472ab5) + +So, really, I do not see how ComputerShare is anything to worry about. It's **the** golden platter, placed right in front of apes. Honestly I feel pretty dumb for not realizing this earlier when it has been posted about many months ago. + +* Direct Registering of Shares pulls the float and locks it up because it is no longer registered as "Street Name" under broker dealers. +* Direct Registering of Shares **must** be with the designated transfer agent of the company. In this case, it **must** be through ComputerShare. +* ComputerShare is the transfer agent for the plurality of the market including major names such as MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN. +* As long as the float remains "Street Name" registered, they can continue can-kicking. They can continue selling retail more phantom shares, nullifying buy pressure, and resetting fails via ex-clearing. +* Broker dealers + shorters + market makers lose their price suppression power and phantom share creation power as they have less float to work with. +* The moment more float is registered via DRS than exists, shit hits the fan (as Dr. T says!) because you immediately have evidence of phantom shares. +* It's not "coordinated market manipulation" if you're just registering the shares that you already bought. You want to show that you're a registered shareholder! + +# 3. CMKM Diamonds - Dr. T's Example of Phantom Shares Exposed by DRS + +I'm surprised I didn't look into this company earlier on either. Dr. T had been mentioning them many times over as an example of how DRS exposes phantom shares, and I'm sure a few apes have created posts on them in the past. + +>CMKM was a Canadian company with an interest in diamonds. The shareholders didn‘t know that mineral rights they were told about were owned by the founders, not the company. Criminal and civil complaints ensued. A reform management changed the company name to New Horizons Holdings, Inc with a plan to raise capital for the purchase of oil or gas assets. If successful, they would be able to return the shares to trading status with the hope of restoring value to shareholders. +> +>**NHH directed all shareholders to obtain their stock certificates and exchange them for new shares. That‘s when the masses of phantom shares and corruption of some big brokers came into stark view. Many investors discovered that their brokers had taken their money and never bought or received CMKM shares.** +> +>... +> +>The investors had “phantom shares.” They were allocated a fail to receive on the broker‘s own books, but payment money was taken from their cash accounts, and they continued to receive statements showing share positions for CMKM. - [Source](https://www.thekomisarscoop.com/2020/03/how-phantom-shares-on-wall-street-threaten-u-s-companies-and-investors/) + +Because of "Street Name" Registering, the above was allowed. Brokers wouldn't even purchase the stock and paddle fails around through ex-clear. A huge chunk of the float was not direct registered, so they had a massive pool to work with when producing phantom shares and resetting fails. + +A huuuge scandal around CMKM Diamond occurred, resulting in the phantom shares being exposed. A lawsuit of nearly $4 Trillion was pushed because WallStreet got away with screwing the investors **after creating nearly 2.25 Trillion phantom shares**. They decided "eh" and just deleted the phantom shares, resulting in the class action lawsuit that stole trillions of dollars from MainStreet investors. + +CMKM Diamond had a float of around 703 Million. But once the certificate pull occurred through direct registering of shares, it showed 2.25 trillion phantoms were out there. + +That's **3200x** the damn float. Which was probably exacerbated because it was a penny stock that was being cellar boxed for (allegedly) illegal money laundering activities. It was an easy target for broker dealers + market makers + short sellers to abuse. + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/comments\/s7-19-07\/s71907-1421.htm](https://preview.redd.it/g3ppbl6e4zn71.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=de1e3e21e2e7ad14c7164a1a7621bf0aa14688f4) + +When shit hit the fan and the stock got pulled because it was a penny stock, the phantoms got deleted and the whole situation got swept under a rug. The MainStreet investors obviously got upset and filed a class action lawsuit to the sum of almost $4 Trillion. + +But, the SEC loves retail so they helped out! + +Just kidding. They didn't do jack shit because the SEC was also alleged to be complicit and that they knew of the fraudulent activities occurring on the security. + +Now, the difference here was that CMKM Diamond was a penny stock and was on the brink of bankruptcy. It was easy to delist the company and hit the nuke button. + +**GameStop is not in that situation.** + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/comments\/4-590\/4590-100.htm](https://preview.redd.it/6nw8xrxc3zn71.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=1736ee0553ccce24c3ca2742e2355f5479264b61) + +The phantoms that were being produced wouldn't even show up on reported volumes, since a massive chunk was traded ex-clearing. Which is where broker dealers could reset fails and keep the phantom share machine churning: + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/comments\/4-590\/4590-100.htm](https://preview.redd.it/aty3w7lj3zn71.png?width=803&format=png&auto=webp&s=04b3ab4e775bb2a8b3bc73a4019394676b066ac3) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/comments\/4-590\/4590-100.htm](https://preview.redd.it/0mwbl9xi3zn71.png?width=799&format=png&auto=webp&s=758ce26b5f2daa1495633ba564a420554669d16a) + +[https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/comments\/4-590\/4590-100.htm](https://preview.redd.it/qpkmkplk3zn71.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=fec6c90388366ebf3a3e1049bf780a131bde17f2) + +In my opinion? DRS is the killshot. But do your own research. Do not take my word for it. ✌️🐶 + +[Killshot Engaged](https://preview.redd.it/8rzeemhm6zn71.png?width=1368&format=png&auto=webp&s=763db793ee46b26a830c63613d7afaf88d5e7441) +https://www.housingwire.com/articles/ginnie-mae-unveils-40-year-mortgage-term-for-issuers/ + +I'd heard about this plan getting pitched around and it looks like it's on the way. If anyone has more detail I'd love to hear it. + +But my understanding is that people, especially those who deferred payments due to Covid, can basically refi the total remaining loan, including outstanding balance, into a 40 year mortgage. + +So if you were planning on everyone behind on their mortgage to cause a dip, you're likely sh!t out of luck. + +I'm curious if they're will be a new 40 year loan option though for all loans moving forward, especially as interest rates rise. I'd assume yes since the government is determined to control the market. + +Just ride the waves my friend, don't fight the current. +Lots of discussion on ARF funds and stock overlap. I did a technical analysis of ARK funds overlap using [www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php](https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php) and created the bingo chart below to show the stock overlap. ARKK is the mothership fund and the contains 23% to 59% overlap of the other satellite funds of ARKF, ARKG, ARKQ and ARKW. It's no problem holding all 5 ARK funds but be aware of the overlap of stock investments. All the ARK funds are up in range of 27% to 58% over past 13 weeks. ARKK up 47% and ARKG at 57%. ARKF lagging but still up 27% in 13 weeks. + +I hope this clears thing up for people wanting to buy ARK funds but don't know which ones to hold. + +**Funds ARKF ARKG ARKK ARKQ ARKW** + +**ARKF** N/A 1% 28% 7% 41% + +**ARKG** 1% N/A 30% 0% 7% + +**ARKK** **28% 30% N/A 23% 59%** + +**ARKQ** 7% 0% 23% N/A 20% + +**ARKW** 41% 7% 59% 20% N/A + +&#x200B; + +**ARKK is the mothership to the other satellite funds.** + +ARKK overlaps all of the 4 other ARK funds. + +**The overlap between the individual ARK satellite funds are as follows:** + +ARKW has the most overlap to other ARK funds, ARKF= 41% and ARKQ= 20% for a total 61% overlap. + +**ARKG has the least amount of overlap to other funds of ARKF, ARKQ and ARKW.** + +ARKG total overlap to ARKF, ARKQ and ARKW is, 1% + 0%+ 7% = 8%. + +**Observations:** + +ARKK would be first choice to cover all funds. + +To keep it simple, you could hold ARKK and look somewhere else for better diversification. + +You could hold all 5 funds with no problem of the known overlap. + +The ARKK and ARKG combination would be least amount of overlap if 2 funds were picked. + +ARKG doesn't have any significant overlap (8%) to the other ARK satellite family funds of ARKF, ARKQ and ARKW funds. + +But the ARKK mothership fund contains 30% overlap to ARKG. +Everyone has just read a well done DD of u/notccpbot. I want to alarm you retards and the mods this is how propaganda infiltration works. The first one comes out of the blue and everyone likes the post without considering the guys hidden agenda. Watch the coming weeks another user claming "chinese citizenship" giving his perspective because we liked it. This is CCP (Chinese Communist Party) shit to have more influence over investors (users here underestimate how much influence this subreddit has). + +/u/iFinesseThePlug mentioned: + +* 4 month old account +* 1 post in something called [r/GenZedong](https://www.reddit.com/r/GenZedong/) +* Never commented before today +* Makes an NIO thread and comments 150+ times + +link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kucf6r/chinese\_autist\_here\_gonna\_share\_you\_western/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/kucf6r/chinese_autist_here_gonna_share_you_western/) + +ALSO: im getting downvote botted. + +Edit 3: Im not racist, I just don't see the autism or retard in him also GME WILL FLY + +**EDIT4: THE CCP SHILL HAS BEEN BANNED.** r/wallstreetbets **IS OURS! No one will fuck with the money printer.** + +&#x200B; +Hey, i'm a 19 years old teenager from a north African developing country (Algeria). I own around 5000€ in cash (it's worth a lot here when you convert it to the local currency), i want to protect it from inflation or do something with it. + +Can i get some advice on how to achieve this considering that: + +\- Though it's probably not even enough, I can't spend it on any stocks or crypto since it's not encouraged or supported here. + +\- I'm wondering if i can buy something physical that increases in value by time (like gold maybe). + +\- If i decide to use it now and start something with it what would you recommend? (low risk ideally). + +\- I prefer to not spend it on any courses. + +\- For spending it on myself or self development i already tried for most things but feel free to suggest something. + +PS: Since 5000$ is worth a lot here and it's a developing country, it's more subject to inflation especially in the current world economic situation. + +Algeria is not as bad as you think when i say Africa (it has the highest HDI in the continent if you exclude islands). It's not in risk of any war or food crisis. 5000€ is far from enough to buy land here (i also live in the capital), and the currency isn't that cheap. + +Speaking about leaving, i'm still a college student and even if i want to leave as a student i still have to wait a year or two (which is enough to affect the money's worth especially in this current economic situation). I would like to leave since i'm limited here so in case i do, i want to protect this money until the time when i leave comes. + +Thanks in advance. +I knew a guy called John. me and him had been friends for a long time, nearly 10 years i think. i got into crypto a while back and i'd obviously talk about it with him, encourage him to start as it is a great hobby to have. John claimed he was too 'busy' to invest, i.e. playing video games all day and jacking off in his uni dorm room. + +However, recently, John had a change of heart. he wanted to pull himself together and thought that crypto would be the catalyst so he came to me to learn. naturally i was ecstatic, this was one of my best friends and i really enjoy teaching people things. I taught John everything i knew, how to use exchanges, how to set up a wallet, how to spot good projects, the trends of the market etc.. i spent countless hours of my personal time helping him learn basic things (he is a bit slow). + +Now, i warned John to steer clear of shitcoins. i told him that although you may get lucky and get rich quick, the chance of this happening is so low and newbies like him fall victim to these scams the most. he was very off put by this and assured me he would avoid them. + +A few weeks go buy and i received a very long message from John. He told me he was quitting crypto and he had lost all of his savings he put in. i was shocked, but as i read the message it became clear to me what had happened. he said a youtuber had basically shilled him a 'low market cap' coin telling him he could 50x his money in a week. Yes, John fell victim to a pump and dump. + +This is where it gets worse, i replied asking why would he do this when i advised him otherwise. i got no message back, i called him a few days after and to my shock the phone would instantly hang up. John blocked me on everything, not just phone but instagram, whatsapp, facebook. i was shocked and upset, i had done nothing wrong. i asked one of our mutual friends if i could speak to John, and he told me that John wanted nothing to do with me because i had made him lose all his money, + +He didnt blame himself, or even the scammy youtuber, he blamed the person who introduced him to crypto and **warned** him of scams. + +It really hurts writing this knowing ive lost someone i knew for 10 years over something i didn't even do. i just tried to help. + +The moral of the story is don't advise people to get into crypto, or tell them what to invest in, friends or even family, because when shit goes south the first person they will blame is you. + +edit: thanks for all the advice and support guys, ive changed my mind and im no longer sad about this. its better to get rid of people like this now than in the future. +Just looking for a different perspective. Full disclosure: I am a black person. It’s been a bit lonely. I have often been the “token” in my peer groups, at work, and in school. I’ve been in my line of work for 10 years (we serve law firms) and have only done deals with 1 black client. Just wondering. + +Edit: Someone has asked for my story and I figure it’s only fair that I also share. + +I’m 33. $1.2M net worth. + +I own a small portfolio of real estate (about $2.5M worth) and have worked mostly internet marketing over the last 10 years. I’m currently working on starting a business. COVID-19 as well as some office politics has forced me to start thinking about my next move. We have about $200k in stocks and I’m sitting on about $150k in cash. I have a goal to hit somewhere between $5M and $10M net worth by the time I’m 50. + +I grew up in a small town. In a way, I believe that I am lucky. I had an innate desire to learn and I thoroughly enjoyed it. As a result, I did very well in school. My nerdy ways kept me out of trouble and, with time, teachers took a liking to me. + +Because we were poor, I spent most of my nights going to work with my mother. She drove a school bus during the day and was a janitor night. I helped her clean at night until my freshman year of college. Some nights were tough; we’d get home at 2 in the morning and I’d still have to be ready for school in the morning. I’m thankful that she had always put school first because she knew it was my ticket out. This experience did teach me the value of hard work and the experience of working toward a dream. She always wanted to buy a house some day (and she eventually did). + +When I graduated, I was awarded the Gates Millennium Scholarship (full ride to any university in the country). I will say that this was my greatest financial advantage. I came out of college without any debt and I joined a small startup right out of school. It didn’t IPO or anything, but I was able to watch, learn, and get a bit closer to the money. + +While growing up, I read any books I possibly could about money and tried my hardest to execute. I got to a place where I was making six-figures at a pretty young age which made me comfortable enough to try my hand at real estate. If I lost money, it wouldn’t put me out on the street.I didn’t have mentors, I didn’t know anyone else that did it, I just trusted the math. + + + +Regarding unique challenges specific to being black: + +1) The feeling that in order to reach the same level as many of my colleagues, I have to hold myself at a much higher standard. (I.e. it’s difficult for me to feel relaxed, mainly because I am the only black guy). My work is performance based and while on business trips I have colleagues that will get shit-faced drunk and do embarrassing shit as a result. I don’t think I can do that. The consequences for me are much greater in my opinion. + +2) The feeling that many of my colleagues have greater financial support from family than I do. I gotten recommendations for expensive items, only to find out that it was a gift from a family member. I have colleagues who’s parents have helped them with down payments for homes, paid for vacations, paid for weddings. I’ve had to cover all of those expenses myself. We once asked my mother-in-law to buy a mattress (in her own house) for my wife and eye and she was so mad, she didn’t talk to us for the rest of the weekend. + +3) The constant fear of irrational judgement from non-black people who don’t know me. I live in a nice neighborhood. We are one of three black families in the entire neighborhood. This is embarrassing to admit, but I spent $15k on landscaping because I knew that I was the only black person that lived on a corner lot, off of the Main Street. Therefore, people would see me, and potentially judge my yard it wasn’t pristine. + +4) The fact that I will have to take care of my parents in old age. They don’t have enough money to retire and it’s too late for them to do anything about it. Many of my colleagues won’t have to think about this or have concerns about it. + +5) Because I’m the only black person in my entire company and have been for over 10 years, the surprising lack of awareness or understanding. Having said that, I understand that businesses owners and coworkers don’t have to care. It’s about getting the work done and making money. But the flip side to that is how this plays out during happy hours and the stories that are shared about past experiences. + +6) The lack of exposure to the inner workings of how things work, mainly because you come from of lower social economic status. Mistakes are made, sometimes embarrassing ones that may also have social consequences. + +I will add this, I like thinking about money because I feel that it can be an equalizer in many ways. It won’t solve all the problems but it will help my family sit on a more even playing field. + +Edit:I want to thank everyone who has contributed to the conversation. It has really been eye-opening. The response has been greater than I ever imagined. Please keep the comments coming. + +To respond to a point that seems to be recurring, I do recognize that a number of these issues are not race specific and have a bit more to do with socioeconomic status. However, I would add that they are a significant enough part of the black experience that they cannot be ignored. While I will admit, that I may have a bias of viewing these issues through the lens of my own race, it certainly (in my opinion) should be part of the conversation. I largely raised these points because I had a feeling that they would resonate with other black people in this sub and it would help to spur conversation. +Hi guys + +Trading apps are everywhere, crypto is being sold all over the gaff, what is going on? + +There is a massive push for the average person to start investing atm, why? Watching CNBC today, the pundits literally said, it doesn’t matter what you invest in at the moment, or for the next two years, just invest in anything, you’ll win! + +Personally I think the CNBC lot have ulterior motives, but what is the economic benefit of more people investing in the stock markets? I’m guessing it means businesses can grow, but if anyone could point out why there is such encouragement to invest at the moment would be really really helpful. + +Thanks guys +# TLDR + +* Rule 10c-1, “Securities Lending Transparency” proposed transaction-by-transaction reporting of all securities lending activity, *every 15 minutes.* This is aggressive as fuck. Imagine what we would do with that information!! Citadel and their ilk would get fucked. Which is why… +* Citadel came out against this rule, HARD. See past post below, and the images I post of Citadel's arguments against later on. + * Superstonk/comments/wprhuq/citadel\_securities\_pulls\_a\_fast\_one/ +* As you can see, Citadel cares a lot about not having to tell anyone about its lending activity. I want to see what they’re doing… don’t you? It is important for us to support and prevent any hedge funds from weakening it. +* If this rule passes as-is, short selling is chilled and abusive short selling takes a hit like never before in history. +* I will give you everything you need to do your part in 5 minutes. LFG. +* If we get access to data, it will be a true Nightmare on Wall Street + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/hn6jhnf3cks91.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c9f1494f33b9b01e17b88df50731e86b6b41b8d + +As you may have heard, the SEC experienced a glitch that resulting in the loss of a couple hundred comments that were submitted but not posted. As a result, they RE-OPENED comments for a number of rules, which allows people to not only repost their comments, but also - and this is the important part - allows new people to post new comments. + +This is an opportunity. A big one. + +If this community opposes Citadel’s business practices and believes in giving greater power to retail investors to detect and fuck up the very shady shorting practices that hurt and control GameStop… we need to be serious about commenting on these rules. No holding back, no being lazy this time. **Get the fuck in here. Spread the word. Get others to comment.** **This is not a drill. If you believe abusive short selling is bullshit and needs to stop, you need to take 5 minutes to fight the good fight.** If you think you can’t… what the fuck are we even doing here?! + +It doesn’t get more obvious than this. Citadel publicly and vehemently came out against telling anyone about which securities it is lending and when. They have been able to crime in the dark for too long and this is a chance for us to force them into the light. The DTCC wrote a letter lobbying for its exemption from these rules so it can dodge the bullet. + +* Citadel [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-20122451-278475.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-20122451-278475.pdf) +* Dtcc [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-20111381-264968.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-20111381-264968.pdf) + +**Do not waste this.** + +&#x200B; + +https://i.redd.it/u0ie2gbffks91.gif + +# Basic Information + +**FACT SHEET TLDR**:[ https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93613-fact-sheet.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93613-fact-sheet.pdf) + +**RULE TEXT:**[ https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93613.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93613.pdf) + +**PUBLIC COMMENTS:**[ https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821.htm](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821.htm) + +If you wrote a comment in the past, check to make sure it's still there! + +&#x200B; + +## Commenting on Reporting of Securities Loans + +Here is a template to use. You go into [this google doc](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YSfjBhsKs9cN5k-0avix5Zg7nLJaeHWvKDk8B0df5sM/edit?usp=sharing), use the pieces I provide in the next section to write a comment, save as PDF, and submit that PDF to the portal. + +To submit a comment go here:[ https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/proposedarchive/proposed2021.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/proposedarchive/proposed2021.shtml) + +Then click here: + +https://preview.redd.it/itra369ecks91.png?width=769&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aaf23e54a61502cadb86701eaf63e1901263844 + +The primary fight with this rule seems to be: if hedge funds have to report their short selling activity, other people could figure out what they are doing and hurt their profiteering. Funds are also concerned about having to spend money to collect and report the data on their lending activity. In short (lol): + +* Funds are concerned it would raise the costs of short selling +* Funds are concerned others might copy them and reduce profits +* Funds are concerned others might figure out what they are doing and trade against them +* Funds are concerned if short selling is less profitable, greedy people would research companies less + +&#x200B; + +## Legos for Economic Justice + +I’ve included a number of pieces below that you might take and assemble into a good comment. **If you have a bit of time right now, do it right now.** + +\- **Explicitly support transaction-by-transaction reporting** because it eliminates the ability to "hide within the aggregate"; transparency means transparency and aggregates are not transparent. Secret short selling could dissuade actual investment as funds attempt to glean profit off the backs of true investors. + +\- **Explicit support the 15-minute reporting requirement**, saying the cost and effort are justified to prevent fraud and prevent hiding in loopholes. + +\- **Talk about working families and everyday people that are victimized by financial predators.** The SEC's [new strategic plan](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-148) puts "working families" front and center. This is good, and comes from the top, so let's hold them to it. + +\- **Explicitly say that victimized companies need a greater ability to defend themselves against predators**, and that "short selling in the dark" harms true competition and price discovery. The idea that a small number of short-selling funds "know best" and can hammer unsuspecting companies in the dark is shameful. Secret short selling hurts individual investors in the name of greater profits for hedge funds. Is that what the public would want from its government? Timely detection of fraudulent and abusive activity comes before Wall Street profiteering. + +\- **A short seller is not an investor, but the opposite.** The SEC seems to be prioritizing hedge fund comfort and profiteering over investor protection and market transparency. While short sellers might be afraid of ‘short squeezes’ that can follow the identification of their short selling strategy, that is not a reason for the Commission to decide against greater transparency. If short selling is chilled, then short squeezes and dangerous volatility become less common. ‘Sophisticated investors’ will quickly learn to avoid positions that could result in such dangerous volatility, which will clearly benefit the market overall. + +**- Talk about how retail will benefit from increased transparency.** We have a much better idea of the risks of our decisions and transactions if we can see who is targeted which companies. If funds are allowed to short in the dark, retail investors remain dangerously unaware of the risks they take on when purchasing securities. More timely reporting allows for more timely reactions; slower reporting prevents retail investors and working families from protecting themselves from abusive and predatory short selling practices. **Working families and the individual investors need to be able to look both ways before they cross Wall Street.** No one wants working families to get run over in the name of “superior returns for hedge funds. + +\- **Talk about the new and very desirable phenomenon** **of the public serving as first-line watchdogs** in monitoring short selling data for securities fraud, strengthening the SEC and better enabling it to fulfill its mandate, at no cost. More timely, higher-resolution reporting would create a waterfall effect whereby some individual investors analyze the data and make that analysis publicly available for free, which is then disseminated widely and re-analyzed, spurring more activity. This allows individual investors to help each other, and allows busy working families to be the recipient of aid for free. Working families do not have the resources to buy data and analysis, nor do they have the time to analyze data themselves. Greater transparency has positive effects on investor protection that go far beyond the obvious. The Commission must not remain ignorant of how social media facilitates a protective web of information sharing that protects investors. The Commission must not behave as though they are ignorant of how greater data provision empowers whistleblowers, who extend the Commission’s reach and greater empower it to meet its strategic goals. + +**- Talk about the dangers inherent in long, untracked lending chains**,that can lead to economic fragility. Securities lending activity can hide massively destructive chains of obligation that can even be a threat to national security, and so transparency in this area is more important than it has ever been. The risks associated with reckless securities lending and short selling - highlighted with terrifying clarity following the events of Jan 28 2021, go far beyond any theoretical benefits of secret short selling for “superior returns”. Investor protection comes first. + +&#x200B; + +## Using the SEC’s Own Words + +It is often useful to use the SEC’s own words and arguments to support your own. If they have stated something in the past they generally need to support it in future. You can look at rule [10c-1](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93613.pdf) or rule [13f-2](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94313.pdf)for things to use. Here’s an example: You might say, + +*“the Commission, in proposed rule 13f-2, explicitly noted its awareness of the myriad ways in which short selling can be used to abuse individual investors and working families. In proposed rule 13f-2, the Commission said it is “...mindful of concerns that certain short selling activity can be carried out pursuant to potentially abusive or manipulative schemes. For instance, market manipulators may seek to spread false information about an issuer whose stock they sold short in order to profit from a resulting decline in the stock’s price. The Commission has previously noted various other forms of manipulation that can be advanced by short sellers to illegally manipulate stock prices, such as ‘bear raids.’”* + +&#x200B; + +## Example comment w excerpts (be sure to WRITE IN YOUR OWN WORDS to have a stronger and more impactful comment) + +[https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-307626.htm](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-18-21/s71821-307626.htm) + +*When short selling practices occur in the dark and 'current' short sale information is provided long after a position has been entered into, retail investors and the like cannot be aware of the risks that they take on when buying securities. You can understand why this lack of information would represent a problem for all investors, who are expected to invest on incomplete and dated short sale information. I support the intraday 15 minute reporting requirement. The cost and effort involved with this is justified to help in early identification of abusive shorting practices, to reduce the ability of toxic market participants to hide behind loopholes and to attempt to prevent such fraud occuring in the capital markets.* + +*The new rule would also provide any victimised companies a greater ability to defend themselves against predatory short selling, as short selling in the dark harms true competition and price discovery. The enactment of this rule would also introduce the ability for the general public as well as public companies to serve as watchdogs for the SEC as an initial line of defense against abusive practices, by being able to more granularly monitor short selling for securities fraud for those securities they are invested in, helping and strengthening the SEC's ability to fulfil it's mandate and to help weed out market participants that are working against SEC rules, all at no additional cost to the SEC.* + +*I am a strong supporter of transaction by transaction reporting. It is clear that aggregated reporting is not transparent and provides far too much rope where fraud can be hidden in aggregates. Why should one individual or entity have to suffer a worse execution whilst another individual or entity benefits from a better execution, just because it is more convenient for certain institutions to report their short selling practices in the aggregate? It is wholly unfair and contrary to the requirement of best execution and so it should be a mandated requirement for transaction by transaction reporting.* +&#x200B; + +I have always had a lifelong goal of $10 Million net worth, that I told myself once(if ever) I reach it, it would be enough and I would retire. Just this year, I have finally reached this goal. It came a bit sooner than I thought. As I begin planning my early retirement, I came across the term FATFIRE, and realized this is exactly what I have been doing without knowing. I am happy to find this community! + +&#x200B; + +My current situation: I am 33, with a wife age 30, with 3 kids age 1-5. We have just reached a net worth of $10 million Canadian, equivalent to $8 million USD.(All currency values onward will be in Canadian since that's where we are). Our main holdings include our house valued at 4M, with 2M mortgage; 7 other rentals total valued at 6M with 2M mortgage, and a savings of 4M invested in stocks & etfs in a various of accounts. I still holds 100% ownership of my company, which now generates around 100k/month for me, but I expect that earning to eventually die down with me going into retirement, hence I am not consider it to be part of my net worth. Other personal items such as cars, pianos, jewelleries, etc probably will have another few hundred K of value, but since they are depreciable assets I do not consider them part of my net worth. + +&#x200B; + +I feel very fortunate being able to get to where I am, and will share my story here. I think it's an interesting one, and can be replicated by smart young people. I am also hoping to get some advices from veteran FATFIRE friends about what to do and how to live after retirement. + +&#x200B; + +MY STORY: + +My parents were working professionals in a developing country. We immigrated to Canada 20 years ago. Back then, their biggest reason for immigration was to provide a better life for me. When we first came, my parents brought $20,000 with them, which was their lifetime savings. Life was hard back then for me as a teenager. We lived in a basement rental, and didn't have a car for many years. It was all the way after I went to university that my parents finally saved enough to put a down payment on a house. + +&#x200B; + +As a kid, I was pretty smart, not as hard working, but did manage to get good grades. I got into computer science program in a good university in Canada. I was not the best student in university, but did manage to graduate in 2010 with a degree in computer science, and a brand new software engineer was made. + +&#x200B; + +I got a decent job after graduation, with a pay of $60k/year. It was a lot less than what people in FAANG make in SF, but it was good for my area at that time. However, half year in, with a bit of money saved up, I had a "GREAT" idea for a business and decide to quit and form my first start-up. Long story short, I worked my ass off and it did not work out. By end of 2011, I decided to end the start up and go find a job again. This venture made me lose all my savings from my first job and my intership earnings back when I was in school. It also tought me a lot of valuable lessons. + +&#x200B; + +I went back to work as a software engineer early 2012. Though the start up failed, the experience I gained from it did allow me to get a boost in salary. At my new job I now make $80k/year. It's a good job at a good company, but I was still thinking of starting something on my own. Remember, I had always had the $10M dream, and I know I will never get there if I keep working for others. + +&#x200B; + +This time however, with the lessons I learned from my 1st start up, I re-evaluated myself and set up new rules. For one thing, I realized though I am a great learner of technical skills, I have poor social skills, and poor leadership skills. So I had to find something that would fit me. I set up several rules for my new venture. I think it's with these rules, that I did manage to make my second company a success, at least for myself. + +1 - I will not quite my job until my new business makes enough money + +2 - There should not be any over-head cost (since I lost all my savings already) + +3 - I need to be able to do this alone. + +&#x200B; + +It took me around half a year to figure out what would fit into this type of business, and I decided to go into mobile gaming development in the 2nd half of 2012. Even though I had been a software engineer, I had only been working websites until that point, and had no idea how to program mobile, but I did manage to learn on my spare time bit by bit. Turns out it wasn't that hard. This became the perfect business for me. I would work during the day at my job, and during evenings and weekends I would learn and make small mobile games. It costed me nothing except time, plus a computer and a phone that I already have. + +&#x200B; + +By end of 2012, I had finished and published my first game. I completely avoided my disadvantages, which is talking/leading people, and used my advantages to the max, which is learning new things, such as mobile coding, and graphic designs. I think I was also very good at identifying markets, such as what game people might like, etc. + +&#x200B; + +When I launched my first game, it was not a hit. However, it did generate revenue, which gave me a lot of hope! With the release of my first game, I started earning around $3-$5 dollars per day from Ads and In-App purchases. Not a lot right? Not even enough for lunch, but I realized that this business could work! For one thing, it costed me nothing except some time, and the business is already generating profit! How many tech companies can do that in a year?! And with this experience, I know I can do better by making better games. + +&#x200B; + +I continue to work during evenings and weekends coming up with new ideas and making new games. I got to say, it was a tough time back then. I must have been working for 100 hours a week for months. But I had my goal in mind, and when you are determined, you really get stuff done. By March of 2013, I had managed to publish 5 games, each better than the previous one, and by April, I was earning $200-$300/day from my games, start to surpass my salary from my job! + +&#x200B; + +I quit my job May 2013 to work full time at game development. In the year followed, I created several dozen small games. By end of 2013, I had a net worth of around 200K, and I put down 60K of it as a deposit for a $1M pre-construction house closing in 2015. That was my first real estate investment. + +&#x200B; + +There were a lot of ups and downs running my own company. I had never hired anyone all to this day (except pay salary to my wife for tax purposes). In the first few years, I relied on game quality and word-of-mouth to promote my games. App platforms also like to promote newly released games, which was great for me. This way, I spent $0 on advertising and pretty much kept every dollar I earned. However, it wasn't smooth sailing. There are times where the earnings drop for reasons out of my control, there was one time I was threatened with a copyright lawsuit, and other troubles. They did cause me to abandon my game company twice, once in early 2015 to start another tech start up with 3 other people (failed), and learning and getting licensed as a real-estate agent in late 2016 (license obtained then abandoned). + +&#x200B; + +Back to my net worth. By late 2015 when my first house closed, I had made around $600K via my gaming company. Also the house I purchased in 2013 went up in value by $500K with crazy hot market. This put me into the millionaire category. Also in 2015, I married my wife and had our first kid. My wife came from a similar family backgrounds as myself - working parents. We met in university and she studied education. She worked part-time for 2 years after graduating in 2013, and has been staying home taking care of our kids full time since we got married. + +&#x200B; + +It took me a bit over 5 years to go from $1M net worth to $10M net worth. + +In 2016, I used all my savings from the company, around $400K after paying the downpayment of our first house, to purchase rental properties. In one year, I bought 4 properties with value totalling $2M with 20% down. In 2017, I used my new earnings to purchase 2 more properties in a different city with value totalling $800K with around 30% down. + +&#x200B; + +In 2018, I switched strategy for my gaming company. By learning what other gaming studios were doing, I began focus on paid advertising of my games. I started to use all my earnings as ad spending to acquire more users, and get more earnings. I executed this strategy pretty well, and managed to grow my company's net income to over $1M/Year for 2018, 2019 & 2020. + +&#x200B; + +In 2019, I Purchased a new house for our family for around $3M, with mortgage of course. It's a pretty big one. 11000sf including basement. I also started to focus more on stock investing. Since I have a tech background, other than the main S&P index, I invest heavily in Tech companies and ETFs. However, I never go on margin with stocks just to be safe. + +&#x200B; + +2020 was a pretty good year for my net worth, despite what happened with the world. Stock market, Real Estate Market, as well as my gaming company's earning took off with a blast. Now, in April 2021 I realized I have done it. I have amassed a net worth of $10 million! + +&#x200B; + +To get to this point, it took me: 11 years after graduation; starting 3 companies with 2 failed; running my mobile gaming company for 8 years; created almost 200 mobile games; never hired an employee; Bought 8 houses along the way; Learning to invest in the stock market; + +&#x200B; + +I think to get to $10M, my company contributed \~5M, real estate appreciation contributed \~4M and my stock gains contributed \~1M. However, with out my company, I would never had money to invest in the other two. + +&#x200B; + +That's my story! Thanks for reading all the way to here. I hope my story has been an interesting read for you! + +&#x200B; + +For veteran FATFIRE friends, I am looking for your advice: + +My plan now is to retire. I will still have my earnings from my gaming company for a good while. However, I know if I stop making new games/ads, the earnings will eventually die down. I am hoping to get another $1-2M from my company in the next few years without me doing anything. I know, it could be a waste of a good company if I just let it run its course, but I feel like I have made enough to have a happy life. + +&#x200B; + +I am weighted pretty heavily in real-estate, and have a pretty large portion in my principle residence. I feel that having a large principle residence is probably not a good idea in US, but in Canada, gains from principle residence is 100% tax exempted. My hope is to live here until my kids are all grown up and moved out. At that point, I would be able to downsize to a smaller house with my wife, and get all the gains from my residence out tax free. I also have 7 other properties, the good news is they are all cash-flow positive now. However, I do wish to diversify more, since all properties are in Canada and not too far from each other. My thought is to refinance some of the houses while the interest is low now a days, and move those freed up cash into stock markets. + +&#x200B; + +I am currently planning to spend 3% each year just to be safe. To be honest, so far we have never even come close to spending $300K/year pre-taxed as a family. Can anyone help me figure out what would be a good way to plan a budget of $300K/year for a family like ours? + +&#x200B; + +For Younger people who are looking to FATFIRE. + +I hope my story inspires you in some way. Personally I think I have managed to get to $10M in a pretty short time period without a lot of stress. Now looking back at my life, I have missed a lot of opportunities as well. For one thing, all the way until 2019, I had most of my money in a bank account or some sort of GIC savings with very low interest. (Except the money that had went into real estate). If I had been investing those money in the stock market since 2013, with all other things being equal, I would be able to hit 10M at least 2 years earlier. + +&#x200B; + +Feel free to reach out for questions, and may be you can use my story as a guide to a similar success. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks everyone! and Thanks for creating a great community for FATFIRE! Let the life long vacation begin! + +Edit: Regarding future of my company. I think as I transition into retirement, I will still do my best to maintain my existing apps and continue their UA and Monetization strategy. This way. I will get the full value out of them. However, I would stop the more time consuming part of the business, which is identifying new trends and making new apps. I think by only doing maintenance of existing apps, I can cut my work hours to 10/week. A lot less than the hours I have been putting into in the past. + +Edit: Regarding people saying it’s impossible now to get into mobile gaming. I can say for a fact it’s still very possible via 1 of 2 routes: 1) submit game to large hyper casual publishers, all of them are actively seeking new games to test out. as long as you spend the time and make quality games, they test for you at no cost and buy them out if they works for 500K-1M each 2) test games yourself. An ad budget of $200-$500 dollars is enough to tell if a concept works or not. If you get excellent initial stats, then you can improve,advertise, recoup expense via earnings, and repeat with gradual larger budget. However, getting the right game concept and make it perfectly, that’s the hard part. But if you can make an amazing game, you will be able to convert that into profit for sure. +&#x200B; + +Here we are again. Another token on the verge of a massive breakout, shining at the most opportune time. On Sundays, typically bloody, we’d usually see a drain of the memecoin market but here is Saturna, ready to eat up all the DOGE losses from people selling the SNL. + +Bonfire also continues to march **past its ATH looking to break a $330M market cap**, but **Saturna** has the title of the **fastest growing token on BSC**, bursting out to **$45M in a record THREE days.** + +Saturna’s potential is quicking spinning out of control but the developers have a tight grip on the rocketship, delivering on milestone after milestone in spite of the short time frame. With that we’ve already seen a **Solidity audit delivered with zero security issues**, huge influencer campaigns, an **NFT marketplace** in development, **big giveaways** and, get this, **a CEX listing!?** + +This is truly the golden era for us memecoiners and moonshot lurkers and it’s time to grab a hold of the next token to go up and to the right forever. **Already eclipsing 13,000 holders,** Saturna’s price floor is being rebuilt over and over again, **volume spiking to $8M daily.**. It’s insane. + +There are whispers now of even bigger marketing partnerships as everyone takes notice of what will be the next giant on BSC. It won’t be long before the **influencers are lining up** to blast Saturna **just to secure a W for their followers.** + +With the next moon landing set at 25,000 holders on their roadmap designed to reward holder milestones, it won’t be long before the next set of developments are unveiled which should launch this token to brand new heights. + +I’m getting sick just thinking about how much further this can go and how crazy this ride is going to get. So make sure you DYOR, and if you start to feel nauseous from the ups and downs, remember that **diamond hands** in this market are what **create not just wealth, but generational wealth.** The type that allows you to hand family members full BTC’s for their birthday. + +After all, anyone who sold **SafeMoon, DOGE, Bonfire**, well, they feel sicker than you’ve ever been with those tokens continuing to launch to new heights. If I haven’t made it clear by now, then you should really just understand this. You **DO NOT** want to miss out on **Saturna**. Links below: + +**🌐 Website:** [saturna.co/](https://saturna.co/) + +**🔥 Telegram:** [t.me/saturna\_TG](https://t.me/saturna_TG) + +**🥞 PancakeSwap:** [exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x1e446CbEa52BAdeB614FBe4Ab7610F737995fB44) +Not asking here for work to be done for me. I enjoy analysing companies, would just love to hear what people are looking at! Anyone think they’ve seen a company that’s undervalued at the moment or on the way there even? +A 44 year old friend on his path had a stroke. He likes to eat rich at client dinners, drink and work hard. Never did much physical activity. He knows he is not healthy but he thinks he’ll take care of it later when he is retired and has time. Unclear how much time or function he will have. + +Last month, a colleague who prided himself on how thrifty he was by driving a 1992 Camry almost died to a new driver in a WRX crashing into him. He would be much better off today if he was in a new Volvo or new anything. I read in this sub sometimes about how proud people are they’re running their old junkers despite how much money they have. + +Don’t be a penny wise and a pound foolish. People think it'll never happen to them but look at the numbers on what the greatest risks are to the average well off person. It's cars, obesity, and heart disease. In order to fatFire, you need to make it there and you want to make it there in good shape. After all, we are all doing it for quality of life. + +edit: I'm not saying don't live your life, live a life worth living and take some chances, it's fun. However, it would be smart to reduce risk on easy things to reduce risk on. Personally, I indulge in track days with a little BMW that goes pretty fast and it's an adrenaline rush. But on the street, I drive pretty slow and leave it on auto-drive with a big German SUV. +Twitter shares fell as much as nearly 10% early Monday before paring some losses and trading down 6% by midday. + +https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/11/tech/twitter-stock-trump-account-suspended/index.html + +Looking at the stock prior to any of the recent events, it hasn’t really shown excessive growth since it’s IPO. Interested to see if this is a good buying opportunity or this stock is stagnant and has a low chance of competing with the rest of big social media companies? +Jumped on the $GME bandwagon on Friday, 4 @ \~316. My 36 hours of day trading has already taught me that no matter how this plays out, I will never YOLO on a bubble ever again. + +The principle seemed straightforward: hedge funds got lazy/greedy, over-shorted their positions, bet against a company that wasn't actually going under, and some astute monkies on reddit caught them and triggered a short squeeze. Even as someone who knows almost nothing about the stock market, the basic premise makes sense. But the devil's in the details, and hype is blinding. + +First red flag was when I realized [/u/DeepFuckingValue](https://www.reddit.com/u/DeepFuckingValue/) did not bet on the short squeeze, he bet on undervalued stock price *over a year ago*. He has also trimmed his position such that no matter what happens in the squeeze, he walks away with 8 figures. So the people screaming "if he's still in, I'm still in!" and "look at those brass balls, if he can lose $5MM in a day then I can hold" are really living up to the dumb ape meme. He didn't lose $5MM yesterday, he lost $5MM in \*unrealized gains\*, there is a \*huge\* difference. + +Second red flag was a common sense idea that hedge funds won't go down without a fight, and they have literally billions of dollars and decades of experience. You don't get that without learning how to game the system in complex, subtle ways. So even if they are still heavily shorted (which they might not even be anymore), and even if somehow [r/WSB](https://www.reddit.com/r/WSB/) is holding some kind of meaningful leverage over them, that doesn't rule out the very real possibility they have a dozen ways out of this that people like me have no idea about. + +But even in the off chance that somehow this turns around, and $GME does go "to the moon," that doesn't change the fact that it's bad long-term strategy to bet on bubbles and jump on bandwagons. They almost certainly fail, and if they don't, they only serve to inflate egos that will fall even harder on the next gamble. I'm still holding my shares but I don't expect to see my \~$1200 ever again. In the off chance I break even or see a profit here, I will count it as dumb luck and use it as seed money to learn how to invest in real long term gains. + +**Edit:** holy shit RIP my inbox. No way I can read all that. + +Want to clarify a few things. Not financial advice. + +**My position:** I knew I was late to the party. I *wanted* to gamble. I knew what I was doing, and (mostly) why I did it. Hindsight showed me it was more based on emotion than I wanted to admit, but still, I'm not surprised by the outcome so far, and I'm totally OK with taking the L and calling it a lesson learned. I don't blame DFV, WSB, or anyone for my choices. I own them, even proudly, because I wanted to step out and take a calculated risk vs. sit on the sidelines out of fear of loss. I'm holding because I already bought my tickets to this ride, want to see this thing play out, and I'm fine with gambling the final $300 on the outside chance things turn around. + +**Your positions:** brothers, sisters, nonbinary siblings: **you are not your portfolio**. whether up or down, your value is not based on how big or small an imaginary number is. you are a human being on the bleeding edge of 3.5 BILLION years of evolution, you have more actual success in your past and potential success in your future than you'll ever know. 12 years ago I was a penniless alcoholic literally stealing change from my grandpa to get loaded on 211 Steel Reserve. I hit my bottom, joined AA, and now I'm a network engineer, wife, kids, the whole lot. Anything is possible if you don't give up on yourself. But I know it's not that easy, we all need borrowed self-esteem before we can see the real value inside. So if this $GME gamble hit you hard, please reach out to someone. don't give up. Hell, this bubble isn't even over, it might even turn around! But either way, don't give up. + +**Edit2:** + +wow, never expected this to go this far. wrote it on my way out the door as a way to cope with the situation. read a ton of replies, probably missed most of them. thanks for all the love and hate and everything inbetween! A few more points: + +* Agreed that RH deserves to be held accountable. No question they manipulated this. +* Agreed it's not over yet. the squeeze could happen. but if it does, **my** main personal takeaway from this experience will stand: I won't speculate on bubbles anymore. This is my position if I lose everything or make $100k. +* if you posted gains, that's awesome! so glad for you, I wish you the best! + +**Edit3 2/3/21:** + +Full disclosure, I closed my position this morning at a \~$900 realized loss. + +My gut says the squeeze happened, short interest isn't what I thought it was on Friday, and the stock will return to actual value soon. + +**Edit4 2/25/21:** + +**I stand by my decisions, both to buy and to sell. I don't speculate on bubbles. Period. But you can do whatever the fuck you want with your money and you'll never find me shaming you about it.** +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +# Edit: Debunked! Big sad. The posts of glitches were only around T+21 dates so that thew me for a loop. They happen frequently and in other stocks too. I'm not a TOS user so I followed a red herring only to get suplexed by /u/jsmar18 + +Gonna make this quick since I'm hype AF, want to get my thoughts out, and to get more apes to discuss. + +Once again - I am not a financial advisor and I am not providing you financial advice. + +# 0. Volume Glitches Close To T+21 Days + +Let's get right to it. We've been seeing glitches once in a while of volume on the buy side. They've always confused me and STILL confuse me, but maybe it's finally coming together. + +We saw a "[glitch](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkyxt4/the_gme_glitch_of_63_million_shares_on_may/)" yesterday in buy order volume. A glitch of \~63M: + +[May 25 Volume Glitch](https://preview.redd.it/j6cztbn42h171.png?width=1899&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b617e53e87a80476cac4ac059016f6da28c1649) + +And this isn't the first time it's happened. [We also saw a "glitch" on March 23](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mbs1kb/so_theres_a_643m_order_sitting_on_tos_right_now/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). A buy order volume glitch of \~634M: + +[March 23 Volume Glitch](https://preview.redd.it/ikjif9uq1h171.png?width=548&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab35e481a86012365efa2fbe7d84ecd35b39b921) + +[And another "glitch" on February 22nd.](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lq0lwu/why_is_there_a_94_million_share_buy_order_in_for/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) A buy order volume glitch of \~94M: + +[Feb 22 Volume Glitch](https://preview.redd.it/lo7ujctv1h171.png?width=1856&format=png&auto=webp&s=a7bed537ad4f811c7399a66706afcc1da2b23e97) + +Notice something.... interesting about the dates? Those are all **very close to T+21 dates**. For a refresh, here's the T+21 days that have happened in 2021: + +* January 25 +* February 24 (Glitch on February 22) +* March 25 (Glitch on March 23) +* April 26 +* May 25 + +Ok cool, we have buy order volume glitches. What could they possibly mean? + +# 1. FINRA Trade Report Processing Rule + +Our fellow ape /u/afterberner9000 found [a FINRA rule](https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/rulebooks/finra-rules/7140) which could explain why we're seeing things ramp up. Why we might now be experiencing T+21 a day later on T+22. Here's a link to their comment: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkwhq3/the\_dd\_has\_once\_again\_proven\_to\_be\_true/gzfa2o5/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nkwhq3/the_dd_has_once_again_proven_to_be_true/gzfa2o5/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) + +Edit: The rule is still important to note. But disregard the speculation regarding these glitches. + +~~Essentially, their trade will become 'locked in' (forced) **if it remains open by 2:30PM**. So what does this mean?~~ + +~~**(Speculation coming**) Need more apes to discuss.~~ + +1. ~~**Zoom back to February 22nd.** They get a glitch of 94M **at the end of the day,** meaning the order is actually for February 23rd.~~ +2. ~~By 2:30PM February 23rd, they need to close that order or it gets locked in. They **need to can-kick this order or it will be forced the next day (Feb 24th)**.~~ +3. ~~They can-kicked as much as possible but didn't close the entire order of 94M. 2:30PM February 23rd hits, and their buy order is locked-in for the next day, February 24th.~~ +4. ~~February 24th hits and the remainder of the buy order goes through - resulting in a huge spike in price.~~ + +~~Apply this now to March 23rd glitch. They can-kicked tons of that volume order by March 24th. And then, March 25th surge happened. What could this mean for the glitch we just saw? **Well, if the theory is right and the rule applies here, then they need to can-kick a 63M buy order by EOD May 26th (today) or let it go through.**~~ + +# 2. Volume Glitches = Portion of SI%? + +Edit: The glitches cannot be used to calculate SI% or anything significant. This is a common glitch on TOS as pointed out by our other fellow apes. (They should fix that lol) + +~~If these are truly buy orders of their can-kicking, then Jesus Christ, what the hell did they do?! I'll provide you with some crazy numbers.~~ + +~~We don't know how much their SI% is, but these glitches might be a big, big hint.~~ + +~~The orders are very spread out, so they could be overlapping here and not be cumulative. So for the sake of this post, we'll assume the **634M** volume order on March 23rd is what they're can-kicking off of their balance sheet. **This doesn't even include their current short position.** But let's say that it is the currently reported 20% SI% plus the 634M order. Know how much SI% just that gives us?~~ + +~~20% SI @ 55m float = 11M~~ + +~~11M + 634M = 645M~~ + +~~645M / 55M float = 11.72~~ + +&#x200B; + +~~SI% From March 23 Glitch: 1,172%~~ + + +~~Oh boy.~~ + +~~But wait, there's more!~~ + +&#x200B; + +~~There was another glitch on March 25. Either this is what they are can-kicking, or this throws the entire theory out the window. Because it is a terrifyingly large number and might not even account for overlap of can-kicking. If this is what they're can-kicking, then [what the hell is this "glitch" on March 25](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdcy3x/185_billion_buy_volume_18375_still_showing_in/)?~~ + +[March 25 Volume Glitch](https://preview.redd.it/yvcqcc8k6h171.png?width=1879&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0765d8bd6a96dc100292e05e5aefcdb090c87a7) + +~~Yeah, that's 1.85 BILLION. **If** these orders are their true short positions that are being suppressed, then that comes out to be..~~ + +~~SI% From March 25 Glitch: 3,383%~~ + + + +~~These guys are going to break the damn stock market if this is true.~~ +A 44 year old friend on his path had a stroke. He likes to eat rich at client dinners, drink and work hard. Never did much physical activity. He knows he is not healthy but he thinks he’ll take care of it later when he is retired and has time. Unclear how much time or function he will have. + +Last month, a colleague who prided himself on how thrifty he was by driving a 1992 Camry almost died to a new driver in a WRX crashing into him. He would be much better off today if he was in a new Volvo or new anything. I read in this sub sometimes about how proud people are they’re running their old junkers despite how much money they have. + +Don’t be a penny wise and a pound foolish. People think it'll never happen to them but look at the numbers on what the greatest risks are to the average well off person. It's cars, obesity, and heart disease. In order to fatFire, you need to make it there and you want to make it there in good shape. After all, we are all doing it for quality of life. + +edit: I'm not saying don't live your life, live a life worth living and take some chances, it's fun. However, it would be smart to reduce risk on easy things to reduce risk on. Personally, I indulge in track days with a little BMW that goes pretty fast and it's an adrenaline rush. But on the street, I drive pretty slow and leave it on auto-drive with a big German SUV. +A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away... me and the boys fucking told you so. + + +Fuck the bears, fuck your wife's boyfriend, and fuck Fernal. + +Brainchip $10 by Christmas 2022 🚀🚀🚀 +From a recent article in [Money Control](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/sachin-bansals-navi-offers-home-loans-at-6-4-heres-what-borrowers-must-do-7909331.html): + +> According to terms of the lender, the borrowers are not allowed to uninstall the NAVI app from mobile device until you repay the loan. Any accidental violation of this term will be tantamount to fraud, and the lender may initiate legal proceedings against you. + +It's unclear if they will actually enforce this, but it does seem risky to take a loan knowing that even accidental deletion will be considered fraud. Originally discovered this from a post on the Facebook group Asan Ideas for Wealth ([link](https://m.facebook.com/groups/asanideasforwealth/permalink/6735960589808110)). Just thought I would reshare here as well. +There have been a few posts here talking about the recent property market. It is definitely unbelievably demotivating and shitty for first-home buyers right now and I'd call it categorically unfair. + +However, the most upvoted comments are all about how prices are insane; how it is better to wait; how the bubble is going to pop and we're going to see a 30%, 50% correction. The problem? I've been on this subreddit for a few years, and these comments are pretty much identical to what people said in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. + +I understand that everyone has their opinion, unfortunately listening to their opinions and not buying in Sydney when I could in 2016 has cost me millions in potential equity. I want to bring some unpopular opinions: + +1. Right now, you can lock in a fixed home loan for about 2.3% p.a. or so. This interest rate is lower than the BLS inflation of 3.5% year on year; and tbh, from my personal experience my cost of living has gone way higher than 3.5%. A [New Zealand newspaper](https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/prices/grocery-prices) maintains an independent grocery price index that uses actual prices from supermarkets, and if you switch to the $AU version, you'll see grocery prices have increased by **15% year on year**, and **34% since 2020**. That matches my experiences more. + +2. The capital gains on your owner-occupier property is not taxed. This is a special concession that you cannot get with any other investment. The reality is, if you put money into shares or ETFs, you will be paying capital gains tax, plus income tax on dividends. If you buy a owner-occupied property, you don't pay CGT. We can talk about how unfair the tax system is (and I'd agree with you), but if you want a good financial outcome for yourself, **you need to use it**. + +3. When you pay rent, you're paying with it using post-tax dollars. When you own your own property, there is no financial transaction, which means that there is no government taking up to 47% of your wage before it goes into rent. **For someone in the marginal tax bracket, this effectively means your imputed rent is halved if you are an owner occupier.** + +4. Housing is a **relative asset**. Let's say you do buy and there is a correction (no, I do not believe home prices will only go up). The thing is, **it's not just your property that devalues, every property does**. So if you want to move to a different suburb, you'll be able to preserve **the same standard of housing** even if there is a broad correction; and you can always build additional savings to capitalise from any corrections and improve your living standards. + +5. Listen to the markets on interest rates; not random commentary from redditors. If you [look at market-implied interest rates](https://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf), you'll see the market believes the cash rate will be 1.1% in one year from now. These figures are implied based on institutional trades -- banks and funds with 'smart money' put billions of dollars along the line and trade based on extensive research or positioning; and is a lot more accurate than the random redditor thinking RBA is going to hike rates to 5% and crash the housing market. + +6. Q4 2021 bought about record-shattering supply and auctions, and yet the market has held up. Despite substantially more stock on the market; prices remained stable. This tells us that **there is ample buying demand at current levels**; and while FOMO has certainly contributed to the sharp acceleration in 2021; the data does not support the thesis that we're going to see it reverse in 2022. + +My recommendation is simple: + +**If you can afford to buy a property, buy a property.** Get on the property ladder, and stop worrying about it. Housing, as an asset class, goes up over the long time. Maybe homes will be 5% cheaper by the end of this year, maybe homes will be 10% more expensive by the end of this year; but **probability wise, it's more likely to go up than down**; plus the saved rent and tax benefits. That's what investments do. + +If I listened to this advice a four years ago instead of r/AusFinance calling Aus property a super-bubble, I would be sitting on a ~$2M house with ~475% gains on my deposit. + + +Navibration, a Spain-based technology company with a patented technology that has been backed by the Government of Spain, is creating a next-generation navigation system which will redefine not only the way we move in unknown places but all of the details and secrets of them. All this will be achieved through Navibration Experiences, where content will be created by the users. Each new tour created will be available for sale on the platform and will be controlled by smart contracts to ensure transparency, proper incentives, and user engagement. + +Navibration is the world’s first decentralized social network of audio-guided (which is geolocated) routes from different cities globally and also known as Navibration Experience. Navibration is a navigation system by vibration with which an individual can move about anywhere in the world with no Internet connection or maps, and no need to look at your device. It is designed wholly for use on foot. It is a Patented navigation system. Participants of this platform will be rewarded equally base on their contribution. The Blockchain technology is incorporated into the Navibration Experience ecosystem with a multiplatform tool that is made available on these platforms: desktop version, tablets, and smartphones. + + +I know many people had money during 2020, saw the crash but thought it was going lower so they didn't buy in. Then when it started going up they still didn't buy because they missed the bottom or they became convinced a second crash was coming and the lows would be revisited and they'll have their chance to buy. + +Well we know how that turned out.. they might just be thinking this recent correction is the infamous second crash they've been predicting all these months. + +I know there's a lot of uncertainty going on in the markets recently and you'll find plenty of doom and gloom stock market articles on the internet if you look for them.. You might be looking at this recent correction combined with reading doom and gloom headlines and gleefully rubbing your hands thinking to yourself "I knew my time would come, now I just need to wait a little bit more and then I'll buy, probably close to the bottom". + +But this will almost certainly be a terrible mistake, and it would be the same terrible mistake you made last time. I get it, psychologically you want to buy at the cheapest possible price so you get the biggest return AND you lower your downside loss potential. It's very attractive and the temptation to try and time the market sucks you in, you become so fixated on not losing money and buying the cheapest price that you end up never making money either because you never pluck up the courage to actually buy in the first place. + +--- + + +I have a friend who pulled his money out of the S&P in 2008 at around the 1000 point market (a 30% loss) to try and buy in lower, and while the market did in fact go lower, he was unable to time the bottom because he waited too long and was too greedy. To this day he still has not bought back in... Not because he thinks the price is going back to 1000, but because he is so bitter that he made this mistake he just cannot bring himself to pay the now 250% - 300% increased price. + +At first he waited, then he waited some more and after a few years he lost interest because the price was so much higher than when he sold, especially when the price went past the previous ATH, he completely gave up on the stock market as being a viable investment and instead put his money in a savings account. I've not seen or spoken to him for a few years but I know him, there's no way he would have bought into the market, he was too bitter. + + +So what's the moral of this story / rant? Don't be like my old friend... Don't try to time the bottom. Don't be greedy. Just accept the discount that's on offer and buy in, then if it drops more, buy some more using your salary. Because if you don't, you're very likely to be stuck in the perpetual cycle of waiting for a correction that you end up inevitably missing the timing anyway. + + +And I know there are some people who will read this, or posts like it, and they'll tell themselves they are right and they can time the bottom but however strong your conviction, just know that you are almost certainly going to miss the bottom, so why bother trying? +Like the title says, I just started looking into to Econ for the first time and I was curious: as socialist economics are described as heterodox, does that mean that mainstream academic consensus is that socialist economics don’t work? I understand the rejection of Central planning given its well documented failures, but it seems like market socialism is rejected as well, at least from what I’ve gathered from posts on this sub and bad econ. + +Does this mean that socialist economic theory is just considered to be wrong by orthodox economists, or am I misunderstanding something? As someone new to the subject, any and all help is appreciated. +I don't know if you guys follow any value investing channel on YouTube. All the channels I follow almost all of them cover Baba and tencent extensively and for almost all of them baba is an excellent value play with it own risk but a fundamental good play. + +All those channels offer also other company analysis but none of them are as cheap as baba. + +They also offer premium content and ALL of them shill their premium content by claiming they have even better companies that offer better returns than baba. + +They mostly say that they own baba but it's a small portion of the portfolio and that they have a better company and to find out join their premium list. + +So I wonder what you think about it, is it all marketing tactics or they have good company that no one has find out except them. +I currently have 4 rentals. One is a single mom who works at a bar. I reached out to her the day my state announced: "all bars to be closed for 30 days." I've avoided her messaging me awkwardly. She's been a good tenant, always paid on-time or earlier, and has updated the property by a few hundred bucks w/ improvements she can't take w/ her. I told her if she had the extra money she could pay, if not, then please keep her money and we could square up whenever she could. + +She told me she could pay half, I told her it was up to her, and I wouldn't press her until this stuff got sorted out, but I would be keeping accurate records. + +It's easy to be heartless in the REI game. But at the end of the day, treating people like you wanted to be treated usually ends well. Especially, when it's a good person and they aren't paying not cause they don't want to, but literally, because they can't. + +Anyway, there's my dump for the night. It's always the right thing to do the right thing. Maybe it bites me in the butt and I lose money. And maybe my reserves go crazy low, but I'll sleep well at night. +I'd really like to have a discussion here about GME. Everytime it seems I see anyone suggest it as a viable investment, it gets downvoted to oblivion. I hear some of the same arguments against its volatility but exposure to volatility is ok in a balanced portfolio, you dont need to be strictly ETF's. Know your limit, play within it, when it comes to speculative investments. + +Another argument is that its a dead business, that is far from the fact imo. It was on a downward path and would have gone the way of blockbuster but at this point, I see it as more of a Netflix. It is a debt free company, great new management team, proven to care about investors and care about the quality of service that customers receive. + +The fact it's been labelled a "meme" stock is insulting at this point, it's not a "meme" company with a bunch of "meme" employees. It's a company transitioning from its antiquated business model into a hopefully ecommerce powerhouse with at this point a global brand. The craze around this stock has made GME more of a household name then it has ever been. + +I'd love to have a good constructive discussion about it and see what exactly it is that makes some people so bearish on this and maybe we can take it a little more seriously then the label it's been given by CNBC and other MSM. +Interested to hear from people earning normal salaries in comparison to the rich lawyers, bankers, trust fund babies on here. I always thought how could someone earning 24k live in a place like London but it must happen as not everyone is on a 50k salary. +To everyone now entering crypto, and lurking here waiting for their 10th day to post, I would like to give a warm welcome. We can't see you but we feel you. Welcome to the biggest party in modern history. +Mods need to re-sticky the CS guide ASAP, but that aside, use your tiny walnut sized brains for just a second and strain until your ears bleed till you can form a wrinkle around this one idea: this past quarter we have BOMBARDED this sub with cries, pleas, demands and guides on DRS and Computershare; it was within this past quarter that we decoded RC's tweets on the issue and he has NOT ONCE SINCE posted ANY other relevant cryptic hints that might pertain to CS--he knows we got it. At this point it's not about figuring it out, it's about everyone doing their part, getting off their ass, and registering their shares NOW. I 100%'ed by shares months ago thinking I had to get on this quick because I knew back in early fall that this was the final blow. + +&#x200B; + +Those of you who are still suspicious, or too lazy, or too hesitant: JUST FUCKING DO IT. + +It is painless. It is quick. It costs nothing but time and a small fee only if you're buying new shares. + +**THEY HAVE LESS THAN ZERO REASON TO MENTION ANYTHING ABOUT REGISTERED SHARES UNLESS IT WAS A DIRECT MESSAGE TO US THAT WHAT WE ARE DOING IS WORKING, AND AS A COMPANY THEY STAND TO BENEFIT IN NO WAY BY INCLUDING THAT IN AN EARNINGS REPORT, WHEREIN SUCH A STATEMENT HAS NEVER BEEN MADE PREVIOUSLY.** + +DRS now. You have no excuses left. This is it. YOU WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OTHERWISE. As we've seen with Fidelity, it's no longer an option of "convenience". It is the only way this happens. + +EDIT: I'm adding this particular line because I'm seeing a lot of this in the comments--if anyone smarter than myself can teach or provide DD on how people can transfer their 401k or other holdings to CS, please do so here! + + +**2nd EDIT: THE CS GUIDE HAS BEEN RESTICKIED ON THE FRONT PAGE, THANK YOU MODS!** +Bringing **millions** of new agents into the market, disrupting the whole industry with commission-free trading, an intuitive UI that any ape like us can use, becoming the #1 downloaded app across most app stores... + +Without Robinhood, this whole thing probably wouldn't have happened and WSB would likely be stuck at 100k subscribers like it was 3-4 years ago. Because lets face it, a hugee percent of WSB use(d) Robintard because we're too low-functioning to use brokerages that use >4 syllable phrases like "money market fund" or "moving average" + +Something like this happening right before going public was **GOLDEN** for them. All they had to do was not be a corrupt sellout bitch, keep their huge influx of new users happy, and they would've been set to come out of this a more respectable, even larger brokerage, as well as a high-value public company. + +Instead they decided to expose the raw underbelly of their shitty business model and go exactly against their entire mission statement. Even if capital/margin requirements was the reason for the restrictions (it was definitely a factor but protip: it wasn't the full story), it doesn't change anything about the end result. Who the fuck wants to use a BROKErage who can't guarantee functionality during historical black swan events that usually result in the largest transfer of money? And then, **even if** they can't maintain capital requirements to execute trades, they could have handled it better. Just fucking pull the money from somewhere. Take out a huge loan from somebody ASAP. You can always get instant money if you don't give a fuck about interest rates, which they shouldn't because it's short-term and like I said, it would've been **HUGE** for the future of the company. Another one, they could have restricted both buying &amp;amp; selling of the trending tickers, or just go down altogether (RH users are very familiar with the app being down and losing full functionality, why is this time any different?). Yeah it would've sucked but at least it would've fucking stayed consistent with their mission statement of fair, democratic trading for all. I fuckin work at Wendy's and I can still imagine several better alternatives than the BS "difficult solution" they did. + +And speaking of their mission statement, it's complete BS. It's just a sugarcoated way of saying "lol we allow poor people to trade and have pretty colors". They clearly don't give a shit about DeMoCrAtIzInG tRaDiNg FoR aLl. Because if they did, their business model wouldn't have been a Wall Street megacorp keeping the lights on by frontrunning user trade data. + +And yeah another reason why "volatiilty" and "trade volume" excuses are BS is because they **increased** restrictions on Friday when both volume and volatility **decreased** lmfao. Screw this POS jokerage. + +Edit: And the lawsuits up the ass. They just finished a $65m SEC settlement **LAST MONTH**, think their rainy day fund is big enough to handle something like this immediately after? Lmao gl + + +Edit: Tbh this fuckery was such a double win for Citadel because they get to force RH to manipulate the market while also signing their death note, which for Citadel means less retail investors.... + + +#FUCK YOU ROBINTARD. YOU CAN'T STOP US FROM LIKING THE STOCK🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +The damage that the current PM and Chancellor have done to UK PLC credibility has led to a sell off in Uk Assets and IMO we are lower than COVID levels of despair and if this crazy policy of tax cuts and increased public spending continues, we could depress to 2009 level of risk taking. Unlike covid we now have high inflation and relatively "high" interest rates, so I think the likelihood of a "V-shaped" recovery is unlikely and prices will remain depressed for a while. In addition we are either in or entering a recession, so earnings will be down across the board in general. + +All of the above factors make me extremely interested in UK bonds and shares in the next 6 months, as although UK credibility is in question, the UK is without a doubt one of the most stable countries in the world and in general a great place to do business. So I believe that regardless of the fear mongering media, now is indeed the time to be greedy when others are fearful :) + +A decade of QE and low interest rates has been devasting for stock pickers, now I believe is the time that you can genuinely outperform the index by using sensibly value investing approach. +(and then complain about it) + +The number of comments in threads saying that they don't want their shares called away after they sell covered calls is ridiculous. Know your risk. + +If it goes past your strike, you won. You made your profit. What more do you want? +Today I realized I had a $1MM net worth. Yep the wife and I are technically millionaires. We are not rich or on easy street. Still working my ass off to pay our bills and save for retirement. How much do you think it takes to quit worrying about shit? +Edit: +The poll allows only 7 options. I tried to maximize the range between the min/max while keeping the intervals between them as small as possible. Seeing the results now, I realize I should have prioritized the size of the range rather than the intervals + +Edit2: +Damn, I really fucked this up huh +———————— + +Of the options listed, what's the lowest price you could be convinced to sell all your ETH at at this moment? This of course comes with the condition that you'd be out of the crypto game forever. + +This has been discussed in the daily before, but I thought it'd be cool to get an official poll of how valuable the community really finds their ETH. + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/9lfl5t) +&#x200B; + +# 0. Preface + +Hello apes - I am not a financial advisor and I do not provide financial advice! + +There's some misconceptions that the price should be blasting off into the stratosphere due to apes direct registering. Of course, I have seen posts and comments pop up wondering why the price is going down, with some negative sentiment carried with it. I also see concerns that they could "keep infinitely shorting" with just one share not registered, which is not necessarily true. + +I'm going to provide you my reasoning why you should relax and be Zen. Which in turn gives a possible explanation of what may have driven the January sneeze: a choke on the clearing house which the shorters could not keep up with. + +Keep in mind that this is not fact, and everything I say should be taken with a grain of salt. Hence "possible DD". But in the end, we're all just throwing shit at the walls and discussing to try to figure this out. + +TL;DR: >!I love you!< + +# 1. Direct Registered Vs DTC Owned (Brokerage/Beneficial/Street) + +Computershare released [a great FAQ page](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies) with a flow chart showing how stock ownership is partitioned. We're only really concerned with the "Outstanding Shares" portion, so I've highlighted it from the chart they provided on what to focus on: + +[https:\/\/www.computershare.com\/us\/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies](https://preview.redd.it/o0qfzrevxqr71.png?width=1386&format=png&auto=webp&s=43be7fda5b7e3b105f8205c9b1b6c4f55b006292) + +You can see that "Outstanding Shares" is broken down into two subsections: "Registered-ownership shares", and "Beneficially-owned shares". + +* Registered-ownership shares is essentially all executives, retail investors, insiders, and others who direct registered their shares with the company via the transfer agent so that GameStop knows their ownership. +* Beneficially-owned shares is essentially the float. These are shares all under the DTC which they've produced a chain of "beneficial ownership" to lead to the shareholders. Say you buy under Fidelity. You are a beneficial owner of Fidelity's shares, and Fidelity is a beneficial owner of the DTC's shares. **It's a long chain but the key point is that the DTC is the outstanding owner of the shares**. + +The "Outstanding Shares" for GameStop happens to be 76.49M while the float is approximately 61.83M. This is the total number of shares currently issued out by GameStop which are either in circulation (float) or locked up (direct registered). \[[Share Statistics Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/key-statistics/)\] + +What's important to understand here, and even given by Computershare themselves, is that Registered-ownership shares cannot be borrowed. They also state this on [their FAQ page](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies)! This is because the shares are in **your** name when direct registered, and not in the DTC's name any more. While you're under a brokerage, you do **not** own the shares, the DTC does. So it's free game for them to be played with, legally. + +[https:\/\/twitter.com\/computershare\/status\/1445478903070429184?s=21](https://preview.redd.it/e67jmpinarr71.png?width=979&format=png&auto=webp&s=42d1e3c36181d2246b920bd0d1594c4ae6773555) + +Now you may be thinking, hey, I can just shut off my lending at my brokerage and they won't lend my shares, right? + +And you're probably correct - they won't lend the beneficially owned shares that you "own". However, the brokerage doesn't own those shares themselves and are still a beneficial owner of the DTC's shares. So while you may turn off lending, the DTC themselves can still offer up the shares they own and paddle them around to the SHFs, Brokers, and Market Makers who need them. All for the sake of liquidity (hooray). + +Along with this, if the broker had [internalized your order](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/py33nd/i_am_going_to_say_it_brokers_are_breaking_the_law/) and given you an IOU rather than actually purchasing your share, then they **really** aren't lending out your shares since those shares don't even exist. + +So, you can assume that your "shares" under a brokerage aren't being lent out, but the shares that the DTC still owns (which you're in a chain of beneficial ownership of) **are** being lent out. + +**In other words, turning off share lending in a brokerage account doesn't do shit**. + +Otherwise, this thing would have blasted off to the moon long ago given the thesis that apes own multiples of the float. Surely if turning off share lending helped as everyone thought - the entire float would have been restricted by now? Nah, not the case. Not unless retail direct registers the float will the float officially be restricted from the DTC so that they can no longer lend the shares. + +Which leads to me breaking the initial Computershare chart down into basically a vertical fill bar. It's completely arbitrary but I made it for the sake of trying to convey how direct registration effects the borrowing power of the SHFs, Brokers, and Market Makers. + +The purple is the "Direct Registered" block. These are shares that cannot be borrowed. + +The red is the "Beneficially Owned" block. These are shares owned by the DTC and can be freely borrowed. Your brokerage account is under the red block, and the main purpose of DRS is to move those shares out of the red and into the purple. + +[Share Ownership Breakdown of Direct Registered Vs. DTC Owned](https://preview.redd.it/vf2hmro0vqr71.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=9409c1315752d56f5703e4b535318f90cd0bea81) + +# 2. Effect of Direct Registering On DTC-Owned Supply of Shares + +Whenever an ape direct registers their shares, be it through DRS or DSP, the purple box increases in size, and the red box decreases in size by equivalent amounts. There will **always** be 76.49M shares accounted for when it comes to ownership. No more, no less. + +If an ape registers 100 shares, then the purple will increase and 100 shares are direct registered in their name. At the same time, 100 shares are removed from the red and the DTC loses them. + +How can you register? Mainly two methods, both involving the transfer agent, Computershare. These methods are Direct Registration System (DRS) and Direct Share Purchase (DSP). It really just depends on the current state of the shares, which I discussed [here in detail](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pyqtlc/theres_some_confusion_of_drs_versus_dspp_both/) if you're curious for it being more fleshed out. But generally speaking: + +* DRS is for shares that have **already been purchased** and are under a brokerage. You open up a brokerage account, buy 100x GameStop. You have beneficial ownership under the broker (and by extension the DTC). Since they've been purchased you have to do some kind of transfer to swap ownership, and must therefore use the Direct Registration **System** to [move them from "street" to "book" name](https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/investorpubsholdsechtm.html). +* DSP is for shares that have **not yet been purchased**. You go through Computershare and utilize their DirectStock Purchase system to go and purchase a share from the lit exchange and then place it into your name, bypassing the brokerages "beneficial ownership" stage. If you've seen Computershare posts stating "DirectStock", then you can assume that the ape purchased new shares through Computershare. + +[Effect of DRS and DSP on Stock Ownership](https://preview.redd.it/rt6pkrbivqr71.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=f56775b0836e319abc827b19c632ef9424ec8cdf) + +You can imagine that the above is what GameStop and Computershare sees all the time. Computershare is tracking the ownership of shares and adjusts this record keeping constantly. + +For the past 9 months, GameStop probably knew that their stock is owned many times over. The problem is that they have **absolutely no proof** based on their registration numbers. From their and the SEC's perspective, 61.83M shares are still unowned. + +Until that red box drops to 0, GameStop has no real reason to cry foul for manipulation. And maybe that is what they're waiting for - for the entire float to be registered before making any moves. But even then, that isn't to say that GameStop has to be the one to make the moves once the float is fully registered. I believe that direct registration itself will eventually lead to a critical point where the MOASS may ignite on its own without their intervention. + +Consider this. Why did the January sneeze happen? We have pretty good reason to believe that they easily suppress retail buy pressure to prevent price discovery (see the past 9 months of crab walking). So why not just route all of retail orders from January in such a way that retail buys don't influence the price? That should have been easy enough for them to accomplish even with the mass amount of retail FOMO. + +This is where I get the feeling that, despite not a lot of shares being direct registered at the time, there was a massive choke on the supply vs. demand of the shares that were being borrowed and the clearing house could not keep up to allow the shorters to continue to suppress the price. + +# 3. Supply Vs Demand; It's Going To Take A Lot of Shares + +Let's break down the vertical fill bar chart a bit further, by dropping in an arbitrary yellow "demand" block. This yellow block represents the amount of shares that they are borrowing and in need of to either short the stock or reset FTDs. + +Standard supply and demand means that as long as your maintain a fair supply compared to your demand, you need not worry about the underlying item becoming expensive or hard to obtain. + +And the key to think of here is that while they may have millions of shares to borrow from, those shares still need time to settle before being added back to the "pool" of supply that they can borrow from. We see this through statistics from sites like [IBorrowDesk](https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) when the available shares goes from 1,000,000 to 500,000 and then eventually back to 1,000,000. There's some downtime as the borrowed shares must settle before being replenished. + +[Supply Vs. Demand of Available Shares to Borrow Against Under the DTC](https://preview.redd.it/d3ejsukg3sr71.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b6c07b2fe05a9105922dd6bad0f0ebc290e8970) + +Which means that, no, even if they have one share available in this pool, it cannot keep the game going forever because it cannot be used infinitely 24/7. If they're in need of millions of shares and can only get their hands on one share every couple of days while it settles, they're screwed. + +Meaning that there can be a critical point where the SHFs, Brokers, and Market Makers have **too** much demand for the DTC's supply of shares such that the supply can't keep up. They'd snap up the shares as soon as they replenish, pushing the stock into a hard-to-borrow scenario, while being unable to get enough shares they need to keep things from blowing. + +# 4. Conditions for the January Sneeze + +Go back in time to January's sneeze. The stock had massive retail FOMO around the world, resulting in RobinHood themselves having an [enormous margin call of about $3 billion](https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/investing/robinhood-gamestop-vlad-tenev/index.html) due to having to post liquidity for the **new trades that had yet to settle**. + +We all know what happened next, but the point here is that an insane amount of money was pouring into meme stocks (since the total margin call can't be attributed to only GameStop) on **one** brokerage alone. This was not inclusive of Fidelity, TDA, Webull, and many other brokerages around the world. + +The really big problem for them is that if all shares were already owned by the time the January sneeze occurred, then they had to short to match the retail buys for the sake of liquidity. They **must** match a buyer with a seller, in which they could short to match the buy side. Odds are good that retail buys during this time were matched with short sells, and continued on for the following 9 months, as attributed by the short volumes we see every day. + +And in order to short to match the retail FOMO buys, they'd need to borrow against the DTC's supply of shares. But due to the massive amount of buy pressure and the downtime of shares having to settle before being able to be borrowed again, demand shot through the roof. The supply vs demand curve was brought way out of whack. + +[January Conditions on Available Shares to Borrow Against Under the DTC](https://preview.redd.it/htw5wel93sr71.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=e742524195578ecedddff34a71252486c03a5c92) + +The clearing house gets choked because they're unable to settle these borrowed shares fast enough, and the SHFs, Brokers, and Market Makers are scrambling to borrow every single share the moment they pop back up. + +The downtime of shares being unable to be borrowed while settling can result in actual price discovery as there are no shorts (sells) to match the buy side, and any internalized orders by the brokers could have been caught up in [Net Capital requirements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o7g9mn/net_capital_and_t21/) which choked them into being forced to buy the shares on the market for those IOUs in a snowball effect. + +Desperation kicked in, and they needed a massive pressure release to bring the demand (yellow bar) back down. They shut off the buy button for the meme stocks across the board, allowing the borrowed shares to settle, so that they could then easily hammer down the price with a considerably smaller amount of demand. + +And that sneeze was all without direct registration. It was mostly pure retail FOMO that pushed the supply vs demand curve to a critical pressure point, resulting in the shorters unable to keep the pace with the supply of shares under the DTC. Which implies that, even without the same amount of FOMO, that if the supply of borrowable shares gets constricted it can lead to similar conditions of "gamma squeezing" the stock. + +# 5. Direct Registering Pushes Towards the Same Conditions + +As retail registers their shares, it pulls those shares away from the DTC. Everyone loses their ability to borrow from those shares and the supply under the DTC starts to constrict. + +You may have been expecting direct registration to immediately start pushing the price upward, but that is not the case, considering all of the above about supply versus demand of the remaining float. + +Hypothetically, the supply could be the current float numbers of approximately 61.83M and the demand could be 10M. If those borrowed shares settle fast enough, then the demand could stay steady around those numbers. Absolutely no pressure on the shorters at the time being, allowing them to crab walk the price. + +Now consider if apes registered 31.83M shares. The supply would still be rather high at 30M while the demand remains at 10M. That would still be well away from pushing the stock into a hard-to-borrow scenario, and there's no pressure on the SHFs, Brokers, or Market Makers despite half of the float being registered. The borrow rates can also remain steady since there is plenty of supply compared to the demand, and they can expect the shares to settle in time. So, just because we're not seeing anything substantial yet does not mean it's not working. That is very important to keep in mind. + +Darkpool volumes decreasing is something to consider, though I'm not getting **too** hyped about it. I believe it's mostly occurring due to new purchases of shares via DSP, or brokers being forced to buy shares for their internalized IOUs due to apes DRSing shares. I wouldn't be surprised if it's just a short-lived decrease in dark pool volumes which will increase again after some DRS and DSP FOMO lays off. The main metrics I'm watching to determine direct registration effects are FTDs and borrow fees. + +[Effects of DRS and DSP on the Supply Vs. Demand Curve](https://preview.redd.it/9g3q2nisvqr71.png?width=1591&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc4ba181b2fb8a07747ded748f5a1ef7a35d5899) + +It is undoubtedly known that apes are registering, given the flood of posts every day of Computershare screenshots. But it's important to understand that the positive price effects won't be noticeable until that critical point of supply vs demand is reached. + +At which point the shorters will start to struggle matching retail buy pressure via shorting the stock and resetting FTDs. The price can begin to climb, FTDs can pile up, and the borrow rate can increase. As more shares are registered and the DTC's shares push towards 0, the SHFs, Brokers, and Market Makers begin losing all of their power to manipulate the price. + +The Market Makers won't even be able to utilize their loop-around of being able to "reasonably locate" shares, since the DTC won't own any more. The Market Makers can certainly apply that loop-around if there's currently no shares available to borrow but they can expect the shares to settle within a "reasonable" timeframe. But if the DTC has no more shares, then they cannot apply the "reasonable locate" loop-around any more. + +It's also important to remember that while they may be naked shorting to provide liquidity to the markets via these rules, what they're doing isn't exactly illegal. The system allows this as long as they can legally borrow against the DTC shares. + +That being said, if they keep borrowing shares once those shares are all gone from the DTC, then they are **definitely** doing illegal shit. But at that point, GameStop will see the float registered and they can take action. The shitshow ends. + +But again in closing - this is still just my hypothesis and is not 100% factual. I mainly wanted to post this because of the concern in fellow apes that I read when browsing comments or posts. Maybe this made you apes a little bit more Zen.💓 + +This is not a call to action to register your shares, it is purely informative. Be sure to do your own research. But in my opinion, DRS is the way. 🟣🚀 + +[Crush the FUD](https://i.redd.it/b3bfwfyvorr71.gif) +My brother came up to me and said "hey bro... did you hear about that new safemoon coin? Cause I just bought $50 worth and now have 1,000,000 safemoon coins." I asked him questions about it but he couldn't answer. + +Never even heard of it before but I didn't want to judge, so I checked out the website. Didn't even get past the first page. I ended up judging because it looks like it was done by a 10-year-old for a science project. I didn't even bother researching it after that point. Companies like this are making coins out of thin air and people are buying and selling them with 0 knowledge whatsoever. Absolutely no underlying value. The only value it gets is based on supply and demand. So therefore it is not a currency, but a digital commodity. Maybe I'm stuck in the past, but I refuse to gamble in highly speculative plays. Please don't say that you are "investing" when buying these products; they are not investing, they are gambling. + +Edit: I didn’t expect this post to blow up. Now, lots of people are commenting that it’s actually a popular opinion. Just remember that this my opinion. For more experienced and knowledgeable traders, it may be a popular opinion that buying speculative crypto is not an investment. But, from my experience, many of my friends, family, acquaintances, coworkers, and even people at my college (both young and old) consider buying speculative crypto an investment. These seem -for the most part- to be inexperienced traders that have no clue what even a balance sheet is. I was talking more about the latter. +> Lyft let go of 13% of its workforce, Stripe cut 14%, Opendoor reduced its workforce by 18%, Chime parted ways with 12%, and more. Meanwhile, both Apple and Amazon have reportedly gone into hiring freezes. + +https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/03/stripe-cuts-14-of-its-workforce-ceo-says-they-overhired-for-the-world-were-in/ + +And Meta announced layoffs today +Hello! + +I remember starting at bitcoin a few years ago. When bitcoin broke single digits for the first time, I thought that was a triumphant moment for bitcoin. I watched and admired the price jump to $15.. $20.. $30.. wow! + +Today, I see $17,539 per BTC. I still don't believe reality sometimes. Bitcoin has changed my life, and I have far more money than I can ever spend. My aims, goals, and motivations in life have nothing to do with having XX million or being the mega rich. So I'm doing something else: donating the majority of my bitcoins to charitable causes. I'm calling it 🍍 The Pineapple Fund. + +Yes, donating ~$86 million worth of bitcoins to charities :) + +So far, The Pineapple Fund has/is: + +* Donated $1 million to Watsi, an impressively innovative charity building technology to finance universal healthcare. + +* Donated $1 million to The Water Project, a charity providing sustainable water projects to suffering communities in Africa + +* Donating $1 million to the EFF, defending rights and privacy of internet users, fighting for net neutrality, and far far more + +* Donated $500k to BitGive Foundation, a charity building projects that leverage bitcoin and blockchain technology for global philanthropy. + +If you know a registered nonprofit charity, please encourage them to apply on the fund's website! While I prefer supporting registered charities, I am open to supporting charitable causes as well. Check out the website :) + +# 🍍 https://pineapplefund.org/ + +All transactions are posted on the website for full transparency :) + +----- + +edit: **Pineapple Fund does not donate to individuals. Please do not post your addresses or PM.** + +edit 2: Thanks for the gold! Highlighting new comments is a really useful feature <3 +Posting this on request of OP who has started a finance in India newsletter and isn't able to post here because of lack of karma. Original link - [https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money](https://boringmoney.substack.com/p/byjus-raises-some-money)